# document

id: 3b8e260517ee9d8c1b18caf104e2d5be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7661
content:
"Education can help improve understanding of issues related to climate \r\nchange and increase adaptive capacity (Fauville et al. 2011; Marshall \r\net  al. 2013; von Heland et  al. 2014; Pescaroli and Magni, 2015; \r\nTapsuwan and Rongrongmuang, 2015; Wynveen and Sutton, 2015). \r\nParticipatory processes can facilitate the development of networks \r\nbetween coastal communities and environmental managers for the \r\npurposes of developing and implementing adaptation strategies \r\n(Wynveen and Sutton, 2015). Education, combined with other \r\nforms of institutional support empowers fisheries and aquaculture \r\ncommunities (Table 5.8) to make informed adaptation decisions and \r\ntake action (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: fdcdc6001bcf10cf8076e8d4bc4f8dc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42013
content:
"In West African fisheries, loss of coastal ecosystems and productivity \r\nare estimated to require 5-10% of countries' GDP in adaptation \r\ncosts (Zougmore et al. 2016). Similarly, for Pacific Islands and Coastal \r\nTerritories, fisheries adaptation will require significant investment \r\nfrom local governments and the private sector (Rosegrant et al. 2016), \r\nwith adaptation costs considered beyond the means of most of these \r\ncountries (Campbell, 2017). In SIDS, tourism could provide the funding \r\nfor climate change adaptation, but concerns with creating investment \r\nbarriers, assumptions around cost-effectiveness and consumer \r\ndriven demand remain barriers (Hess and Kelman, 2017). MPAs with \r\nmultiple co-benefits, are considered a cost-effective strategy (Byrne \r\net al. 2015). In 2004, the annual cost of managing 20-30% of global \r\nseas as MPAs was estimated at between 5-19 billion USD, with the \r\ncreation of approximately one million jobs (Balmford et al. 2004)."


id: d3a638751a3468dcd6fce882e02c9864
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34575
content:
"Estimating adaptation costs is challenging because of wide ranging \r\nregional responses and uncertainty (Dittrich et al. 2016). Despite these \r\nchallenges, the protection from flooding and frequent storms that \r\ncoral reefs provide has been quantified by (Beck et  al. 2018), who \r\nestimated that without reefs, damage from flooding and costs from "


id: 4e686dd756466c55e09f3e549f049228
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11069
content:
"frequent storms would double and triple respectively, while countries \r\nfrom Southeast Asia, East Asia and Central America could each save in \r\nexcess of 400 million USD through good reef management. Although \r\nquantifying global adaptation costs remains challenging because \r\nof a wide range of regional responses and contexts, it is likely that \r\nmanaging ecosystems will contribute towards reducing costs associated \r\nwith climate change associated coastal storms (medium confidence). \r\nFurther research evaluating natural infrastructure is required (Roberts \r\net al. 2017) to better understand costs and benefits of EBA."


id: e32a747cbfebb0840b8b0b52f647ee50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37266
content:
"systems (Wigand et al. 2017). A more nuanced knowledge barrier is \r\nthe disconnect between scientific, community and decision making \r\nprocesses (Romanach et al. 2018)."


id: 3d4ff08caa557149e542a7f9c5a35776
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7965
content:
"Substantial knowledge gaps are reported for ecosystem-based \r\nadaptation, including restoration of coral reef systems as an \r\nadaptation tool (Comte and Pendleton, 2018), managing mangrove \r\nand human response to climate change (Ward et  al. 2016), \r\nadvancing coastal EBA science by quantifying ecosystem services \r\n(Hernandez-Gonzalez et  al.), and evaluating natural infrastructure \r\n(Roberts et al. 2017). Few syntheses of the context-specific application \r\nand cost-effectiveness of EBA approaches are to be found in the \r\nliterature (Narayan et al. 2016)."


id: 5caa6010ef573feadc0f6b11e6263377
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13569
content:
"In summary, it is concluded that the broad range of reported \r\nbarriers and limits to climate change adaptation for ecosystem and \r\nhuman system adaptation responses (high confidence). Limitations \r\ninclude the space that ecosystems require, non-climatic drivers and \r\nhuman impacts that need to be addressed as part of the adaptation \r\nresponse, the lowering of adaptive capacity of ecosystems because of \r\nclimate change, and slower ecosystem recovery rates relative to the \r\nrecurrence of climate impacts, availability of technology, knowledge \r\nand financial support and existing governance structures (medium \r\nconfidence). (5.5.2.5)"


id: 1d6ab8de6ae56ca8025390c703335ab6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2357
content:
"Knowledge limitations can include a lack of data (Sutton-Grier et al. \r\n2015; Wigand et al. 2017; Romanach et al. 2018), for example, when \r\nan absence of baseline data may undermine coastline management \r\n(Perkins et al. 2015). Scale-relevant information may be required for \r\nlocal decision making (Robins et al. 2016; Thorne et al. 2017) and \r\nto comply with localised design requirements (Vikolainen et  al. \r\n2017). Other knowledge barriers include inherent uncertainties in \r\nmodels (Schaeffer-Novelli et  al. 2016) and complexity of coastal "


id: c82c138c74e053e378f0f31f83af4d31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
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vector_id: 32529
content:
"or availability of an ecosystem service is discussed in the context of \r\nfactors influencing the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to \r\nclimate change (Sections 5.2., 5.3 and 5.4)."


id: 4e7dba93a0510587159ea689d0fbcd96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11085
content:
"There are many global, regional, national and local governance \r\nstructures with interests in climate-driven ocean warming, \r\nacidification, deoxygenation and SLR, and their impacts on marine \r\necosystems and dependent communities (Galland et  al. 2012; \r\nStephens, 2015; Fennel and VanderZwaag, 2016; Diamond, 2018). \r\nThe legal, policy and institutional response is therefore shared \r\nby many institutions developed for a number of distinct but \r\ninter-related fields, including governance regimes for ocean systems, \r\nclimate change, marine environment, fisheries and the environment \r\ngenerally. A changing ocean poses several scale-related challenges \r\nfor these governance institutions and processes, arising from:"


id: 46facfe9192a01d38e0f000ba824a57e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"These governance innovation strategies have the potential to \r\nincrease the ability of the governance institutions and processes \r\nto successfully respond to all four types of scale-related challenges \r\nlisted earlier. However, any of them also have the potential to fail \r\nto address their intended concerns effectively if implemented \r\ninappropriately, or to create new challenges as the initial priorities \r\nare addressed. In some countries, lack of capacity of the existing \r\ngovernance institutions, lack of access to basic facilities, insufficient \r\nincome diversification and illiteracy are major hindrance for \r\nocean governance in a changing climate (Bennett et  al. 2014; \r\nSalik et al. 2015; Weng et al. 2015; Karim and Uddin, 2019; Sarkodie \r\nand Strezov, 2019) (high confidence)."


id: 1638e83584c03cc1379fc600ad245763
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"For all of these challenges, the scales of the climate-related issues \r\nmay be poorly matched to the scales of most governance institutions \r\nand processes, making effective responses or proactive initiatives \r\ndifficult. Sections 5.2 to 5.4 provide evidence, through case \r\nhistories and thematic overviews, that illustrates these four types \r\nof challenges. In some cases, more than one type of challenge is \r\nillustrated in a single example, such as when a change in an amount "


id: 3e6100055ed34b25e9f3229bda377cbf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8154
content:
"Additional considerations identified by recent studies of ocean \r\nrelated mitigation and adaptation include the need for: early \r\nwarning and precautionary management; multi-level and multi\u0002sectoral governance responses; holistic, integrated and flexible \r\nmanagement systems; integration of scientific and local knowledge \r\nas well as natural, social and economic investigation; identification \r\nand incorporation of a set of social indicators and checklists; adaptive \r\ngovernance; and incorporation of climate change effects in marine \r\nspatial planning (Hiwasaki et al. 2014; Kettle et al. 2014; Hernandez\u0002Delgado, 2015; Himes-Cornell and Kasperski, 2015a; Pittman et  al. "


id: c0031f81adac8c9011b1bc4caad5ad7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31071
content:
"2015; Colburn et al. 2016; Creighton et al. 2016; Hobday et al. 2016a; \r\nAudefroy and Sanchez, 2017; Gissi et al. 2019; Tuda et al. 2019). Diverse \r\nadaptations of governance are being tried, and some are producing \r\npromising results (Sections 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4). However, rigorous \r\nfurther evaluation is needed regarding the effectiveness of these \r\nadaptations in achieving their goals in addressing specific governance \r\nchallenges. Robust conclusions on the effectiveness of specific types \r\nof governance adaptations in various socio-ecological contexts would \r\nrequire a targeted assessment of ocean (and terrestrial) governance in \r\na changing climate, possible as a key part of AR6. "


id: bf1530183b2d5494786674fd65ca4c2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30892
content:
"Ocean acidification is not specifically mentioned in the Paris Agreement on climate change (UNFCCC, 2015) and has only been \r\ngiven limited attention to date in other UNFCCC discussions. Nevertheless, ocean acidification is widely considered to be part of \r\nthe climate system: it is one of seven state-of-the-climate indicators used by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2019); \r\nit featured strongly in AR5, being covered by both WGI and WGII; its impacts are assessed in many sections of this Chapter; and\r\nconcerns regarding ocean acidification have been raised through many international governance structures, including the United \r\nNations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the United Nations Environment\r\nProgramme (UNEP), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural \r\nOrganization (IOC-UNESCO). "


id: 248560eeffdc7d7deb96478dd9330371
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Although many bodies have interests in ocean acidification, no unifying treaty or single instrument has been developed (Herr et al. \r\n2014; Harrould-Kolieb and Hoegh-Guldberg, 2019) and there has been only limited governance action that is specific to the problem \r\n(Fennel and VanderZwaag, 2016; Jagers et al. 2018). Exceptions to this generalisation are the development of coordinated monitoring \r\nthrough the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (Newton et al. 2015), with associated scientific support through the \r\nInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (Osborn et al. 2017; Watson-Wright and Valdes, 2018); and SDG14.3, with its non-binding, \r\nand relatively general, commitment to 'minimise and address the impacts of ocean acidification, including through enhanced scientific \r\ncooperation at all levels'."


id: abade8cfa8ab23802772f4c09ebb5772
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27447
content:
"One possible response to the fragmented responsibilities for ocean acidification governance would be the development of a new \r\nUN mechanism specifically to address ocean acidification (Kim, 2012). This option would take time and political will, and has not\r\nbeen widely supported (Harrould-Kolieb and Herr, 2012). One pragmatic approach could be enhancing the involvement of UNFCCC \r\nwith acidification governance (Herr et al. 2014) together with increased use of multilateral environment agreements (Harrould-Kolieb and \r\nHerr, 2012) (medium confidence). "


id: a2c9bd9efc653c11d6999cc984691fc7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25858
content:
"UNFCCC action to stabilise the climate by reducing CO2 emissions also necessarily addresses the problem of ocean acidification, \r\nwhich is primarily caused by anthropogenic CO2 dissolving in seawater and lowering pH. Nevertheless, there are also distinct ocean \r\nacidification mitigation and adaptation issues, including:"


id: 8f2e24a7277bfd78ac16c0e94391e36e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22390
content:
"Adaptation to climate change could also include a more integrated approach to reduce ocean acidification impacts (Section 5.5.2). \r\nProposed adaptation actions for ocean acidification (Kelly et al. 2011; Bille et al. 2013; Strong et al. 2014; Albright et al. 2016a) include \r\nreduction of pollution and other stressors (thereby strengthening resilience); water treatment (e.g., for high value aquaculture); and the \r\nuse of seaweed cultivation and seagrass restoration to slow longterm pH changes (although short-term variability may be increased) \r\n(Sabine, 2018). These measures are generally applicable to relatively limited spatial scales; whilst they may succeed in 'buying time', their \r\nfuture effectiveness will decrease unless underlying global drivers are also addressed (high confidence)."


id: dd06c6795a8e3deda8c13c6cea470b3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36148
content:
"1\r\n Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (Benguela Current, Canary Current, California Current, and Humboldt Current); {Box 5.3}"


id: 62c8e196ee04fce12d970b71a4b4440e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14677
content:
"communities are the strongest, had increased risk, and none saw \r\na risk reduction from a warming climate (high confidence)."


id: 457cd00160d255308c66f805eaaa9bf0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9443
content:
"The observed and projected changes in the open ocean and coastal \r\nseas have consequences on human communities and affect all aspects \r\nof well-being and have social, economic and environmental costs \r\n(Section 5.4, high confidence). The range and diversity of impacts \r\nis striking, with varying consequences for the wider community \r\nwhen analysed across the key marine ecosystems services. These \r\nconsequences clearly affect the capacity for human society to achieve \r\nthe SDGs (e.g., Figure 5.22). The evidence of climate change in the \r\nocean is a pervasive thread through all types of coupled human\u0002natural systems and projections amplify these observed impacts with \r\nthe least impact from lower emission scenarios. "


id: 6716b162805d762fd202003beb1bb6fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15407
content:
"Biological processes and monitoring: There are a number of \r\nmarine environments (e.g.,  on the deep sea floor) and ecosystem \r\ncomponents (e.g., viruses and protists) where insufficient scientific \r\nunderstanding limits the assessments of risks to low confidence \r\nor no assessment. Examples of gaps include the narrow range of \r\nclimate and non-climatic hazards and their interactions in simulation \r\nmodels, the linkages between single organisms to communities of \r\norganisms, knowledge of climate feedbacks in biological systems \r\n(Section 5.3.4, Section 5.2.4), and the capacity and limits of biological \r\nadaptation for many ecosystems (Section 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.3). \r\nIncreasing observational capacity can help provide the data to \r\nimprove understanding and modelling of these important biophysical \r\nresponses to climate change."


id: ab681b5d38b59f9ba4ca8c7401759bed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"This chapter was designed around three guiding questions \r\n(Section 5.1). These guiding questions mean that the report covers \r\nboth regional and global scales of the ocean and many aspects \r\nof human systems, including governance and institutions, and \r\nadaptation pathways for dependent communities. This assessment \r\nis new linking together a broad and complex set of ocean disciplines \r\nand therefore also provides a unique perspective on key uncertainties \r\nand  gaps in these systems. These gaps limit the extent of the \r\nassessments that were possible in this report. Notable outstanding \r\nuncertainties and gaps from this assessment include the following:"


id: 1c37c08d624753bb06113c2db1ccc422
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2157
content:
"Physical and biogeochemical processes: While the Earth system \r\nis better monitored and the relevant data are more accessible than \r\nthe other areas of assessment there is considerable room to improve \r\nthese capabilities. For example, gaps remain in predictive modelling \r\nof climate change in coastal areas, deep ocean temperature and \r\nsalinity measurements for sea level and closure of the energy budget, \r\nand oxygen and carbon measurements dense enough to measure "


id: 6e2e52cd4b0b13b43fecb87e5733839c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16650
content:
"Climate change poses a serious threat to life in our seas, including coral reefs and fisheries, with impacts on \r\nmarine ecosystems, economies and societies, especially those most dependent upon natural resources. The risk \r\nposed by climate change can be reduced by limiting global warming to no more than 1.5oC."


id: 60d30548aef66491e154ca4a991a682b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14334
content:
"Life in most of the global ocean, from pole to pole and from sea surface to the abyssal depths, is already \r\nexperiencing higher temperatures due to human-driven climate change. In many places, that increase may be \r\nbarely measurable. In others, particularly in near-surface waters, warming has already had dramatic impacts \r\non marine animals, plants and microbes. Due to closely linked changes in seawater chemistry, less oxygen \r\nremains available (in a process called ocean deoxygenation). Seawater contains more dissolved carbon dioxide, \r\ncausing ocean acidification. Non-climatic effects of human activities are also ubiquitous, including over-fishing \r\nand pollution. Whilst these stressors and their combined effects are likely to be harmful to almost all marine \r\norganisms, food-webs and ecosystems, some are at greater risk (FAQ5.1, Figure 1). The consequences for human \r\nsociety can be serious unless sufficient action is taken to constrain future climate change."


id: b0fa3a514246267f9dd51e36f53c9ad0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28364
content:
"FAQ5.1, Figure 1 | Summary schematic of the impacts and resulting consequences of climate change (warming, acidification, storminess and deoxygenation) \r\nand other human impacts, on coral reefs, polar seas and fisheries, discussed in this FAQ."


id: cc5b887f7839d867acb0cf8866204219
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33272
content:
"Mobile species, such as fish, may respond to climate change by moving to more favorable regions, with populations \r\nshifting poleward or to deeper water, to find their preferred range of water temperatures or oxygen levels. As \r\na result, projections of total future fishery yields under different climate change scenarios only show a moderate \r\ndecrease of around 4% (~3.4 million tonnes) per degree Celsius warming. However, there are dramatic regional \r\nvariations. With high levels of climate change, fisheries in tropical regions could lose up to half of their current \r\ncatch levels by the end of this century. Polar catch levels may increase slightly, although the extent of such gains \r\nis uncertain, because fish populations that are currently depleted by overfishing and subject to other stressors \r\nmay not be capable of migrating to polar regions, as assumed in models."


id: ca71b2f4189a587616876f01abc155b9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32954
content:
"In polar seas, species adapted to life on or under sea ice are directly threatened by habitat loss due to climate \r\nchange. The Arctic and Southern Oceans are home to a rich diversity of life, from tiny plankton to fish, krill and \r\nseafloor invertebrates to whales, seals, polar bears or penguins. Their complex interactions may be altered if \r\nnew warmer-water species extend their ranges as sea temperatures rise. The effects of acidification on shelled \r\norganisms, as well as increased human activities (e.g., shipping) in ice-free waters, can amplify these disruptions. "


id: 42b63f2f08233041512565785614cccb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8931
content:
"Whilst some climate change impacts (like possible increased catch levels in polar regions) may benefit humans, \r\nmost will be disruptive for ecosystems, economies and societies, especially those that are highly dependent upon \r\nnatural resources. However, the impacts of climate change can be much reduced if the world as a whole, through \r\ninter-governmental interventions, manages to limit global warming to no more than 1.5oC. "


id: e83ee5717e0f3b4143f57fddcba9e997
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38194
content:
"Pepijn Bakker (Netherlands), C. Mark Eakin (USA), Kerry Emanuel (USA), Michael Grose \r\n(Australia), Mark Hemer (Australia), Laura Jackson (UK), Andreas Kaab (Norway), Jules Kajtar \r\n(UK), Thomas Knutson (USA), Charlotte Laufkotter (Switzerland), Ilan Noy (New Zealand), \r\nMark  Payne (Denmark), Roshanka Ranasinghe (Netherlands), Giovanni Sgubin (Italy), \r\nMary-Louise Timmermans (USA)"


id: 540f3cddc3af62fd8ea6d28a0aeafe15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12063
content:
"Collins M., M. Sutherland, L. Bouwer, S.-M. Cheong, T. Frolicher, H. Jacot Des Combes, M. Koll Roxy, I. Losada, \r\nK. McInnes, B. Ratter, E. Rivera-Arriaga, R.D. Susanto, D. Swingedouw, and L. Tibig, 2019: Extremes, Abrupt Changes \r\nand Managing Risk. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Portner, \r\nD.C.  Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Nicolai, A. \r\nOkem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, \r\npp. 589-655. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.008."


id: 2b69fd3b3d9e062a4bbc4447caacc938
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4888
content:
"Both palaeoclimate and modern observations suggest that the \r\nstrongest El Nino and La Nina events since the pre-industrial \r\nperiod have occurred during the last fifty years (medium \r\nconfidence). There have been three occurrences of extreme El \r\nNino events during the modern observational period (1982-1983, \r\n1997-1998, 2015-2016), all characterised by pronounced rainfall \r\nin the normally dry equatorial East Pacific. There have been two \r\noccurrences of extreme La Nina (1988-1989, 1998-1999). El \r\nNino and La Nina variability during the last 50 years is unusually \r\nhigh compared with average variability during the last millennium. \r\n{6.5, Figure 6.5}"


id: 42be00e6f110a109165012ecb7b76715
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8936
content:
"This chapter assesses extremes and abrupt or irreversible changes in \r\nthe ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, to identify regional \r\nhot spots, cascading effects, their impacts on human and natural \r\nsystems, and sustainable and resilient risk management strategies. \r\nIt is not comprehensive in terms of the systems assessed and some \r\ninformation on extremes, abrupt and irreversible changes, in particular \r\nfor the cryosphere, may be found in other chapters."


id: 63c1ac14371677f1b084b93876014ab5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14841
content:
"The equatorial Pacific trade wind system experienced an \r\nunprecedented intensification during 2001-2014, resulting in \r\nenhanced ocean heat transport from the Pacific to the Indian \r\nOcean, influencing the rate of global temperature change \r\n(medium confidence). In the last two decades, total water transport \r\nfrom the Pacific to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), \r\nand the Indian Ocean to Atlantic Ocean has increased (high confidence). \r\nIncreased ITF has been linked to Pacific cooling trends and basin-wide \r\nwarming trends in the Indian Ocean. Pacific sea surface temperature \r\n(SST) cooling trends and strengthened trade winds have been linked to \r\nan anomalously warm tropical Atlantic. {6.6, Figure 6.7}"


id: d018e93c259a0bd16b0c417bed3278e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33964
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change has increased observed \r\nprecipitation (medium confidence), winds (low confidence), \r\nand extreme sea level events (high confidence) associated \r\nwith some tropical cyclones, which has increased intensity of \r\nmultiple extreme events and associated cascading impacts \r\n(high confidence). Anthropogenic climate change may have \r\ncontributed to a poleward migration of maximum tropical cyclone \r\nintensity in the western North Pacific in recent decades related to \r\nanthropogenically-forced tropical expansion (low confidence). \r\nThere is emerging evidence for an increase in the annual global \r\nproportion of Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in recent decades \r\n(low confidence). {6.3, Table 6.2, Figure 6.2, Box 6.1}"


id: 1243b3659338c3118b5da026458b8972
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 410
content:
"Observations, both in situ (2004-2017) and based on sea \r\nsurface temperature reconstructions, indicate that the Atlantic \r\nMeridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has weakened \r\nrelative to 1850-1900 (medium confidence). There is insufficient \r\ndata to quantify the magnitude of the weakening, or to properly \r\nattribute it to anthropogenic forcing due to the limited length of the \r\nobservational record. Although attribution is currently not possible, \r\nCMIP5 model simulations of the period 1850-2015, on average, \r\nexhibit a weakening AMOC when driven by anthropogenic forcing. \r\n{6.7, Figure 6.8}"


id: 3578d7da42d5be7723556b29db2aed80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6656
content:
"Changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence \r\nmid-latitude weather (medium confidence), but there is low \r\nconfidence in the detection of this influence for specific \r\nweather types. {6.3}"


id: e3a9eeb845a1e876fd518b82dafe800
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37347
content:
"Extreme wave heights, which contribute to extreme sea level \r\nevents, coastal erosion and flooding, have increased in the \r\nSouthern and North Atlantic Oceans by around 1.0 cm yr-1 and \r\n0.8 cm yr-1 over the period 1985-2018 (medium confidence). \r\nSea ice loss in the Arctic has also increased wave heights over \r\nthe period 1992-2014 (medium confidence). {6.3}"


id: 9a43962d082db4740c17346bac15c725
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24383
content:
"Climate change is modifying multiple types of climate-related \r\nevents or hazards in terms of occurrence, intensity and \r\nperiodicity. It increases the likelihood of compound hazards \r\nthat comprise simultaneously or sequentially occurring events \r\nto cause extreme impacts in natural and human systems. \r\nCompound events in turn trigger cascading impacts (high \r\nconfidence). Three case studies are presented in the chapter, \r\n(i)  Tasmania's Summer of 2015-2016, (ii) The Coral Triangle and \r\n(ii) Hurricanes of 2017. {6.8, Box 6.1}"


id: 46cd3d437d420950da0945b4ec443141
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9661
content:
"Marine heatwaves (MHWs), periods of extremely high ocean \r\ntemperatures, have negatively impacted marine organisms \r\nand ecosystems in all ocean basins over the last two decades, \r\nincluding critical foundation species such as corals, seagrasses \r\nand kelps (very high confidence). Globally, marine heat related \r\nevents have increased; marine heatwaves, defined when the daily sea \r\nsurface temperature exceeds the local 99th percentile over the period \r\n1982 to 2016, have doubled in frequency and have become longer\u0002lasting, more intense and more extensive (very likely). It is very likely\r\nthat between 84-90% of marine heatwaves that occurred between \r\n2006 and 2015 are attributable to the anthropogenic temperature \r\nincrease. {6.4, Figures 6.3, 6.4}"


id: 628b009756a4cffbc8be75b6242c2b5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14626
content:
"The AMOC will very likely weaken over the 21st century (high \r\nconfidence), although a collapse is very unlikely (medium \r\nconfidence). Nevertheless, a substantial weakening of the \r\nAMOC remains a physically plausible scenario. Such a weakening \r\nwould strongly impact natural and human systems, leading to \r\na decrease in marine productivity in the North Atlantic, more winter \r\nstorms in Europe, a reduction in Sahelian and South Asian summer \r\nrainfall, a decrease in the number of TCs in the Atlantic, and an increase \r\nin regional sea level around the Atlantic especially along the northeast \r\ncoast of North America (medium confidence). Such impacts would be \r\nsuperimposed on the global warming signal. {6.7, Figure 6.8}"


id: 189e0ed18d9056e0d52feb152d5dcaa4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1547
content:
"The average intensity of tropical cyclones, the proportion \r\nof Category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones and the associated \r\naverage precipitation rates are projected to increase for a 2oC \r\nglobal temperature rise above any baseline period (medium \r\nconfidence). Rising mean sea levels will contribute to higher \r\nextreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (very high \r\nconfidence). Coastal hazards will be exacerbated by an increase in \r\nthe average intensity, magnitude of storm surge and precipitation \r\nrates of tropical cyclones. There are greater increases projected \r\nunder RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 from around mid-century to 2100 \r\n(medium confidence). There is low confidence in changes in the \r\nfuture frequency of tropical cyclones at the global scale. {6.3.1}"


id: ff09cf2d8fd61b4a0dca473251447dee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42272
content:
"Impacts from further changes in TCs and ETCs, MHWs, extreme \r\nEl Nino and La Nina events and other extremes will exceed \r\nthe limits of resilience and adaptation of ecosystems and \r\npeople, leading to unavoidable loss and damage (medium \r\nconfidence). {6.9.2}"


id: 15b645976ed7442307e7ab9466e94370
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1034
content:
"Significant wave heights (the average height from trough to \r\ncrest of the highest one-third of waves) are projected to increase \r\nacross the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific (high \r\nconfidence) and Baltic Sea (medium confidence) and decrease \r\nover the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea under RCP8.5 \r\n(high confidence). Coastal tidal amplitudes and patterns are projected \r\nto change due to sea level rise and coastal adaptation measures (very \r\nlikely). Projected changes in waves arising from changes in weather \r\npatterns, and changes in tides due to sea level rise, can locally enhance \r\nor ameliorate coastal hazards (medium confidence). {6.3.1, 5.2.2}"


id: 59b411fa9e0a741f6ff87b309d8017ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13021
content:
"There is medium confidence that including extremes and \r\nabrupt changes, such as AMOC weakening, ice sheet collapse \r\n(West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and Greenland Ice Sheet \r\n(GIS)), leads to a several-fold increase in the cost of carbon \r\nemissions (medium confidence). If carbon emissions decline, \r\nthe risk of extremes and abrupt changes are reduced, creating \r\nco-benefits. {6.8.6}"


id: 522a15e4d629bb754dd10f1e9488b4b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11728
content:
"Marine heatwaves are projected to further increase in \r\nfrequency, duration, spatial extent and intensity (maximum \r\ntemperature) (very high confidence). Climate models project \r\nincreases in the frequency of marine heatwaves by 2081-2100, \r\nrelative to 1850-1900, by approximately 50 times under RCP8.5 and \r\n20 times under RCP2.6 (medium confidence). The largest increases \r\nin frequency are projected for the Arctic and the tropical oceans \r\n(medium confidence). The intensity of marine heatwaves is projected \r\nto increase about 10-fold under RCP8.5 by 2081-2100, relative to \r\n1850-1900 (medium confidence). {6.4}"


id: 7c10cf9df18d7d332e41b31124670fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19033
content:
"For TCs and ETCs, investment in disaster risk reduction, flood \r\nmanagement (ecosystem and engineered) and early warning \r\nsystems decreases economic loss (medium confidence), but \r\nsuch investments may be hindered by limited local capacities, \r\nsuch as increased losses and mortality from extreme winds and \r\nstorm surges in less developed countries despite adaptation \r\nefforts. There is emerging evidence of increasing risks for locations \r\nimpacted by unprecedented storm trajectories (low confidence). \r\nManaging the risk from such changing storm trajectories and intensity \r\nproves challenging because of the difficulties of early warning and its \r\nreceptivity by the affected population (high confidence). {6.3, 6.9}"


id: 287c5385f59276bc4df4901e73791623
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4327
content:
"Extreme El Nino and La Nina events are projected to likely\r\nincrease in frequency in the 21st century and to likely intensify \r\nexisting hazards, with drier or wetter responses in several \r\nregions across the globe. Extreme El Nino events are projected to \r\noccur about as twice as often under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the \r\n21st century when compared to the 20th century (medium confidence). \r\nProjections indicate that extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events also \r\nincrease in frequency (low confidence). {6.5; Figures 6.5, 6.6}"


id: 9d3c3bebba378bab8e967cb2e960ae78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24899
content:
"Limiting global warming would reduce the risk of impacts of \r\nMHWs, but critical thresholds for some ecosystems (e.g., kelp \r\nforests, coral reefs) will be reached at relatively low levels of \r\nfuture global warming (high confidence). Early warning systems, \r\nproducing skillful forecasts of MHWs, can further help to reduce the \r\nvulnerability in the areas of fisheries, tourism and conservation, but \r\nare yet unproven at large scale (medium confidence). {6.4}"


id: 47eda8ada2012e45918cbdfa179d1cb2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9866
content:
"Lack of long-term sustained Indian and Pacific Ocean \r\nobservations, and inadequacies in the ability of climate models \r\nto simulate the magnitude of trade wind decadal variability \r\nand the inter-ocean link, mean there is low confidence in \r\nfuture projections of the trade wind system. {6.6, Figure 6.7}"


id: 219d5e4b8569076aae753302048c0886
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3123
content:
"Sustained long-term monitoring and improved forecasts \r\ncan be used in managing the risks of extreme El Nino and \r\nLa Nina events associated with human health, agriculture, \r\nfisheries, coral reefs, aquaculture, wildfire, drought and flood \r\nmanagement (high confidence). {6.5}"


id: 47fef31e94b6c4f02be38685b490c61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9881
content:
"Extreme change in the trade wind system and its impacts \r\non global variability, biogeochemistry, ecosystems and \r\nsociety have not been adequately understood and represent \r\nsignificant knowledge gaps. {6.6}"


id: cf22317816e4b2dc9595904d72c7658a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33788
content:
"By 2300, an AMOC collapse is as likely as not for high emission \r\npathways and very unlikely for lower ones, highlighting that \r\nan AMOC collapse can be avoided in the long term by CO2 \r\nmitigation (medium confidence). Nevertheless, the human impact \r\nof these physical changes have not been sufficiently quantified and \r\nthere are considerable knowledge gaps in adaptation responses to \r\na substantial AMOC weakening. {6.7}"


id: 81096dde4385b984abbb6df841c470b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19838
content:
"The ratio between risk reduction investment and reduction of \r\ndamages of extreme events varies. Investing in preparation \r\nand prevention against the impacts from extreme events is \r\nvery likely less than the cost of impacts and recovery (medium \r\nconfidence). Coupling insurance mechanisms with risk reduction \r\nmeasures can enhance the cost-effectiveness of adapting to climate \r\nchange (medium confidence). {6.9}"


id: 2fc97c828927de8d1c12ce5e82fd4e09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5666
content:
"Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction require \r\ncapacity building and an integrated approach to ensure \r\ntrade-offs between short- and long-term gains in dealing \r\nwith the uncertainty of increasing extreme events, abrupt \r\nchanges and cascading impacts at different geographic scales \r\n(high confidence). {6.9}"


id: b53872a783553b7cef33a399f3ac75be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29122
content:
"Limiting the risk from the impact of extreme events and abrupt \r\nchanges leads to successful adaptation to climate change \r\nwith the presence of well-coordinated climate-affected \r\nsectors and disaster management relevant agencies (high \r\nconfidence). Transformative governance inclusive of successful \r\nintegration of disaster risk management (DRM) and climate \r\nchange adaptation, empowerment of vulnerable groups, and \r\naccountability of governmental decisions promotes climate\u0002resilient development pathways (high confidence). {6.9}"


id: 93606d3236cd09bc5f997162479ebc51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23135
content:
"The chapter is organised in terms of the space- and time-scales of \r\ndifferent phenomena. We move from small-scale TCs, which last for \r\ndays to weeks, to the global-scale AMOC, which has time scales of \r\ndecades to centuries. A common risk framework is adopted, based \r\non that used in AR5 and introduced in Chapter 1, Section 1.5 and \r\nCross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1 (Figure 6.1)."


id: 1603b505291d923a9229b070595b2f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1090
content:
"This chapter assesses extremes and abrupt or irreversible changes in \r\nthe ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, to identify regional \r\nhot spots, cascading effects, their impacts on human and natural \r\nsystems, and sustainable and resilient risk management strategies. \r\nWhile not comprehensive in terms of discussing all such phenomena, \r\nit addresses a number of issues that are prominent in both the \r\npolicy area and in the scientific literature. Further information may \r\nalso be found in Chapters 2 to 4 for other aspects of the ocean \r\nand cryosphere."


id: 5d9a17651318172b6d4f4daf4a6ae26a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13757
content:
"While much of what is discussed within the chapter concerns \r\nthe ocean, we also summarise abrupt events in the cryosphere in \r\nSection 6.2, drawing information from Chapters 2 to 4, where the \r\nmain assessment of those phenomena may be found."


id: 299f23cdc3ca3734c8a522c5796bd78f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4549
content:
"Building on the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme \r\nEvents and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX; \r\nIPCC, 2012), IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5; IPCC, 2013; IPCC, \r\n2014) assessments and the Special Report on Global Warming \r\nof 1.5oC (SR15; IPCC, 2018), for each of the topics addressed, we \r\nprovide an assessment of:"


id: c0fa0d034d1adb97c72bbbbf8756508a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31255
content:
"In discussing concepts such as abrupt changes, irreversibility, tipping \r\npoints and extreme events it is important to define precisely what is \r\nmeant by those terms. The following definitions are therefore adopted \r\n(based on either AR5, Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC (SR15) \r\nor Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) Glossaries):"


id: 396914d936610a7fe6f99ad771ea670f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7314
content:
"Abrupt climate change: A large-scale change in the climate system \r\nthat takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated \r\nto persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial \r\ndisruptions in human and natural systems."


id: b930f32bdc01178fe82d5d481c648089
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29784
content:
"change which causes an irreversible change in an ecosystem. \r\nAn adaptation tipping point could be reached when an adaptation \r\noption no longer remains effective. There may be a tipping point \r\nwithin a governance structure."


id: 6afd734f09304c6201e252865f5f2e25
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16117
content:
"Extreme weather/climate event: An extreme event is an event \r\nthat is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of 'rare' \r\nvary, but an extreme event would normally be as rare as or rarer \r\nthan the 10th or 90th percentile of a probability density function \r\nestimated from observations. By definition, the characteristics of \r\nwhat is called an extreme event may vary from place to place in \r\nan absolute sense. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for \r\nsome time, such as a season, it may be classed as an extreme climate \r\nevent, especially if it yields an average or total that is itself extreme \r\n(e.g., high temperature, drought, or total rainfall over a season)."


id: caad9f1cac913df1d36c253efe99eccc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32999
content:
"Compound events refer to the combination of multiple drivers \r\nand/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risks."


id: af5042f68b679ec7f0aef0858ca4e0f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28078
content:
"Cascading impacts from extreme weather/climate events occur \r\nwhen an extreme hazard generates a sequence of secondary events \r\nin natural and human systems that result in physical, natural, social \r\nor economic disruption, whereby the resulting impact is significantly \r\nlarger than the initial impact. Cascading impacts are complex and \r\nmulti-dimensional, and are associated more with the magnitude of \r\nvulnerability than with that of the hazard."


id: e2819e970280edba7ec842cabd9be63e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37148
content:
"Irreversibility: A perturbed state of a dynamical system is defined \r\nas irreversible on a given timescale, if the recovery timescale from \r\nthis state due to natural processes is significantly longer than the \r\ntime it takes for the system to reach this perturbed state. In the \r\ncontext of this report, the recovery time scale of interest is hundreds \r\nto thousands of years."


id: 3db21a830b37cb3fb3b8193885f796a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8023
content:
"Tipping point: A level of change in system properties beyond which \r\na system reorganises, often in a nonlinear manner, and does not \r\nreturn to the initial state even if the drivers of the change are abated. \r\nFor the climate system, the term refers to a critical threshold when \r\nglobal or regional climate changes from one stable state to another \r\nstable state. Tipping points are also used when referring to impact; \r\nthe term can imply that an impact tipping point is (about to be) \r\nreached in a natural or human system."


id: 7718f5c62aa4f75dc4bb997e6ce3f1d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18150
content:
"Some potentially abrupt or irreversible events are assessed in other \r\nchapters, hence Table 6.1 presents a cross-chapter summary of \r\nthose. Subsection numbers indicate where detailed information may \r\nbe found."


id: c8e1a83e4417ab7cbeaed5b4faf3fc57
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32669
content:
"These above four terms generally refer to aspects of the physical \r\nclimate system. Here we extend their definitions to natural and \r\nhuman systems. For example, there may be gradual physical climate "


id: 82fa4fbe663df12ea922773e10549f5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20170
content:
"Table 6.1 | Cross-Chapter assessment of abrupt and irreversible phenomena related to the ocean and cryosphere. The column on the far right of the table indicates the \r\nlikelihood of an abrupt/irreversible change based on the assessed literature which, in general, assesses Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Assessments \r\nof likelihood and confidence are made according to IPCC guidance on uncertainties."


id: 2b96b0b3e502604308e27672d5d4d937
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4925
content:
"The attribution of changes in the observed statistics of extremes are \r\ngenerally addressed using well-established detection-attribution \r\nmethods. In contrast, record-breaking weather and climate \r\nevents are by definition unique, and can be expected to occur \r\nwith or without climate change as the observed record lengthens. \r\nTherefore, event attribution begins with the premise that the \r\nclimate is changing, the goal being to determine statistically how \r\nmuch climate change has contributed to the severity of the event \r\n(Trenberth et al. 2015; Shepherd, 2016). Annual reports dedicated to \r\nextreme event attribution (Peterson et al. 2012; Peterson et al. 2013; \r\nHerring et al. 2014; Herring et al. 2015; Herring et al. 2018) have helped \r\nstimulate studies that adopt recognised methods for extreme event \r\nattribution. The increasing pool of studies allows different approaches "


id: d66b2b8b295111a05adb17d2092841fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35027
content:
"Table 6.2 | A selection of extreme events with links to oceans and cryosphere. In many of these studies the method of event attribution has been used to estimate the \r\nrole of climate change using either a probabilistic approach (using ensembles of climate models to assess how much more likely the event has become with anthropogenic \r\nclimate change compared to a world without) or a storyline approach which examines the components of the climate system that contribute to the events and how changes \r\nin the climate system affect them (Shepherd, 2016)."


id: c88a40ad41a4fec5fcfafae657ea47a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32589
content:
"IPCC AR5 concluded that there was low confidence in any long\u0002term increases in TC activity globally and in attribution of global \r\nchanges to any particular cause (Bindoff et  al. 2013; Hartmann \r\net  al. 2013). Based on process understanding and agreement in \r\n21st century projections, it is likely that the global TC frequency will \r\neither decrease or remain essentially unchanged, while global mean "


id: 737da3699a399aba52a98190f924e8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17569
content:
"This section addresses new literature on TCs and ETCs and their \r\neffects on the ocean in the context of understanding how the \r\nchanging nature of extreme events can cause compound hazards, \r\nrisk and cascading impacts (discussed in Section 6.8). These topics \r\nare also discussed in Chapter 4 in the context of changes to ESLs \r\n(see Section 4.2.3.4)."


id: 3c5f4c7d6a7121ff95216ea9a3dc07b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7812
content:
"TC maximum wind speed and precipitation rates will likely increase \r\nalthough there is low confidence in region-specific projections of \r\nfrequency and intensity (Christensen et al. 2013). The AR5 concluded \r\nthat circulation features have moved poleward since the 1970s, \r\nassociated with a widening of the tropical belt, a poleward shift of \r\nstorm tracks and jet streams, and contractions of the northern polar \r\nvortex and the Southern Ocean westerly wind belts. However it is \r\nnoted that natural modes of variability on interannual to decadal \r\ntime scales prevent the detection of a clear climate change signal \r\n(Hartmann et al. 2013). "


id: 5b8e80ddca8423f1bff134420aa4c547
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13353
content:
"Kossin et al. (2014) identified a poleward expansion of the latitudes \r\nof maximum TC intensity in recent decades, which has been linked to \r\nan anthropogenically-forced tropical expansion (Sharmila and Walsh, \r\n2018) and a continued poleward shift of cyclones projected over the \r\nwestern North Pacific in a warmer climate (Kossin et al. 2016). A 10% \r\nslowdown in translation speed of TCs over the 1949-2016 period has \r\nbeen linked to the weakening of the tropical summertime circulation \r\nassociated with tropical expansion and a more pronounced slowdown \r\nin the range 16-22% was found over land areas affected by TCs in the \r\nwestern North Pacific, North Atlantic and Australian regions (Kossin, \r\n2018). Slow-moving TCs together with higher moisture carrying \r\ncapacity can cause significantly greater flood hazards (Emanuel, \r\n2017; Risser and Wehner, 2017; van Oldenborgh et al. 2017; see also \r\nTable 6.2 and Box 6.1)."


id: 3b638d43ff4e3cc293c9d221d50aaf0e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7637
content:
"Since the AR5 and Knutson et  al. (2010), palaeoclimatic surveys \r\nof coastal overwash sediments and stalagmites have provided \r\nfurther evidence of historical TC variability over the past several \r\nmillennia. Patterns of storm activity across TC basins show variations \r\nthrough time that appear to be correlated with El Nino-Southern \r\nOscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and changes in \r\natmospheric dynamics related to changes in precession of the sun \r\n(Toomey et al. 2013; Denommee et al. 2014; Denniston et al. 2015). "


id: 43e24a180f6facc82ee122e6a17aea4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9176
content:
"Trends in TCs over decades to a century or more have been \r\ninvestigated in several new studies. Key findings include: i) decreasing \r\nfrequency of severe TCs that make landfall in eastern Australia \r\nsince the late 1800s (Callaghan and Power, 2011); ii) increase in \r\nfrequency of moderately large US storm surge events since 1923 \r\n(Grinsted et al. 2012); iii) recent increase of extremely severe cyclonic \r\nstorms over the Arabian Sea in the post-monsoon season (Murakami \r\net al. 2017); iv) intense TCs that make landfall in East and Southeast \r\nAsia in recent decades (Mei and Xie, 2016; Li et al. 2017); and v) an \r\nincrease in annual global proportion of hurricanes reaching Category \r\n4 or 5 intensity in recent decades (Holland and Bruyere, 2014)."


id: bc03806c84a3e5a473d4961846a5eb24
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30313
content:
"Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones (RITCs) poses forecast \r\nchallenges and increased risks for coastal communities \r\n(Emanuel,  2017). Warming of the upper ocean in the central and \r\neastern tropical Atlantic associated with the positive phase of the \r\nAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Balaguru et  al. 2018) and \r\nin the western North Pacific in recent decades due to a La Nina-like \r\npattern (Zhao et al. 2018) has favoured RITCs in these regions. One \r\nnew modelling study suggests there has been a detectable increase \r\nin RITC occurrence in the Atlantic basin in recent decades, with \r\na positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing (Bhatia et al. 2019). \r\nNonetheless, the background conditions that favour RITC's across the \r\nAtlantic basin as a whole tend to be associated with less favourable \r\nconditions for TC occurrence along the US east coast (Kossin, 2017). "


id: 48deeb3282f15a94974636c3d7c8846f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10035
content:
"New studies have used event attribution to explore attribution of certain \r\nindividual TC events or anomalous seasonal cyclone activity events \r\nto anthropogenic forcing (Lackmann, 2015; Murakami  et  al.  2015; \r\nTakayabu et  al. 2015; Zhang et  al. 2016; Emanuel, 2017; see also \r\nTable 6.2 and Box 6.1). Risser and Wehner (2017) and van Oldenborgh \r\net al. (2017) concluded that for the Hurricane Harvey event, there is \r\na detectable human influence on extreme precipitation in the Houston \r\narea, although their detection analysis is for extreme precipitation in \r\ngeneral and not specifically for TC-related precipitation. "


id: f9ed4d0df961f8a6c865be7b54a7e0e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41338
content:
"There have been more TC dynamical or statistical/dynamical \r\ndownscaling studies and higher resolution General Circulation Model \r\n(GCM) experiments (e.g., Emanuel, 2013; Manganello  et  al.  2014; \r\nKnutson et  al. 2015; Murakami et  al. 2015; Roberts et  al. 2015; \r\nWehner  et  al. 2015; Yamada et  al. 2017). The findings of these \r\nstudies generally support the AR5 projections of a general increase "


id: 4f5ad343108bdd9efe8a12677f6c3181
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11248
content:
"TCs projections for the late 21st century are summarised as follows: \r\n1) there is medium confidence that the proportion of TCs that reach \r\nCategory 4-5 levels will increase, that the average intensity of TCs \r\nwill increase (by roughly 1-10%, assuming a 2oC global temperature \r\nrise), and that average TCs precipitation rates (for a given storm) will \r\nincrease by at least 7% per degree Celsius SST warming, owing to \r\nhigher atmospheric water vapour content, 2) there is low confidence \r\n(low agreement, medium evidence) in how global TC frequency will \r\nchange, although most modelling studies project some decrease in \r\nglobal TC frequency and 3) SLR will lead to higher storm surge levels \r\nfor the TCs that do occur, assuming all other factors are unchanged \r\n(very high confidence)."


id: 8d33c43f44aad87b54663e41724fe144
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22025
content:
"New studies of future storm track behaviour in the NH, include \r\nHarvey et al. (2014) who find that the future changes to upper and \r\nlower tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature differences by the \r\nend of the century in a CMIP5 multi-model RCP8.5 ensemble are \r\nnot well correlated and the lower temperature gradient dominates \r\nthe summer storm track response whereas both upper and lower \r\ntemperature gradients play a role in winter. In the northern North \r\nAtlantic storm track region, projected changes are found to be \r\nmore strongly associated with changes in the lower rather than \r\nupper tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference (Harvey \r\net  al. 2015). In the SH, Harvey et  al. (2014) find equator-to-pole "


id: f3782df4f9ced53d67741f790aab6184
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40211
content:
"over 1992-2014 due to sea ice loss (Stopa et al. 2016; Thomson et al. \r\n2016). Based on a wave reanalysis and satellite observations, Reguero \r\net al. (2019) found that the global wave power, which represents the \r\ntransport of the energy transferred from the wind into the sea surface \r\nmotion, therefore including wave height, period and direction, has \r\nincreased globally at a rate of 0.41% yr-1 between 1948 and 2008, \r\nwith large variations across oceans. Long-term correlations are found \r\nbetween the increase in wave power and SSTs, particularly between \r\nthe tropical Atlantic temperatures and the wave power in high \r\nsouthern latitudes, the most energetic region globally."


id: f83058ea8ca110f71ecf9a82086802c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41040
content:
"temperature differences in the upper and lower troposphere in the \r\nfuture climate across a multi-model ensemble are well correlated \r\nwith a general strengthening of the storm track. The total number \r\nof ETCs in a CMIP5 GCM multi-model ensemble decreased in the \r\nfuture climate, whereas the number of strong ETCs increased in most \r\nmodels and in the ensemble mean (Grieger et  al. 2014). This was \r\nassociated with a general poleward shift related to both tropical \r\nupper tropospheric warming and shifting meridional SST gradients in \r\nthe Southern Ocean. The poleward movement of baroclinic instability \r\nand associated storm formation over the observational period due to \r\nexternal radiative forcing, is projected to continue, with associated \r\ndeclining rainfall trends in the mid-latitudes and positive trends \r\nfurther polewards (Frederiksen et al. 2017)."


id: 8c14f3e140012c422e3df505765e98c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21815
content:
"A number of new studies have found links between Arctic amplification, \r\nblocking events and various types of weather extremes in NH mid\u0002latitudes in recent decades. However, the sensitivity of results to \r\nanalysis technique and the generally short record with respect to \r\ninternal variability means that at this stage there is low confidence\r\nin these connections. Consistent with the AR5, projected changes to \r\nNH storm tracks exhibit large differences between responses, causal \r\nmechanisms and ocean basins and so there remains low confidence\r\nin future changes in blocking and storm tracks in the NH. The storm \r\ntrack projections for the SH remain consistent with previous studies \r\nin indicating an observed poleward contraction and a continued \r\nstrengthening and southward contraction of storm tracks in the \r\nfuture (medium confidence)."


id: 27975d405f7bb2c55f5ae0a5e246a1a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4144
content:
"Since AR5, new studies have shown observed changes in wave climate. \r\nSatellite observations from 1985-2018, showed small increases \r\nin significant wave height (+0.3 cm/year) and larger increases in \r\nextreme wave heights (90th percentiles), especially in the Southern \r\n(+1 cm/year) and North Atlantic (+0.8 cm/year) Oceans (Young and \r\nRibal, 2019) as well as positive trends in wave height in the Arctic "


id: f074199a857077b9b4a2fc181ca82a94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39684
content:
"weather and circulation changes on storm surges in a globally \r\nconsistent way is still a challenge because of the low confidence in \r\nGCMs being able to represent small scale weather systems such as \r\nTCs. To date only a small number of higher resolution GCMs are able \r\nto produce credible cyclone climatologies (e.g., Murakami et al. 2012) \r\nalthough this will probably improve with further GCM development \r\nand increases to GCM resolution (Walsh et al. 2016). "


id: 78cfd7c28850846ac84e7917ae6c0e06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18443
content:
"As shown in previous assessments, increasing exposure is a major \r\ndriver of increased cyclone risk (wind damages), as well as flood \r\nrisk associated with cyclone rainfall and surge, besides possible \r\nchanges in hazard intensities from anthropogenic climate change \r\n(Handmer et al. 2012; Arent et al. 2014). Changes in TC trajectories \r\nare potentially a major source of increased risk, as the degree of \r\nvulnerability is typically much higher in locations that were previously \r\nnot exposed to the hazard (Noy, 2016). Typhoon Haiyan's move to \r\nthe south of the usual trajectories of TCs in the western North Pacific \r\nbasin (Yonson et  al. 2018) made the evacuation more difficult as \r\npeople were less willing to heed storm surge warnings they received. "


id: fd13d9de7e29fa64299658a50e99533a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41878
content:
"In the German Bight, Arns et  al. (2015) show that under SLR, \r\nincreases in extreme water levels occur due to a change in phase of \r\ntidal propagation; which more than compensates for a reduction in \r\nstorm surge due to deeper coastal sea levels. Vousdoukas et al. (2017) \r\ndevelop ESL projections for Europe that account for changes in waves \r\nand storm surge. In 2100, increases of up to 0.35 m relative to the \r\nSLR projections occur towards the end of the century under RCP8.5 \r\nalong the North Sea coasts of northern Germany and Denmark and \r\nthe Baltic Sea coast, whereas little to negative change is found for \r\nthe southern European coasts. "


id: 4ddb90103e4906e787ee1335d9c09bf9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10967
content:
"Abrupt changes in impacts therefore are not only determined by \r\nchanges in cyclone hazard, but also by the sensitivity or tipping \r\npoints that are crossed in terms of flooding for instance, that \r\ncan be driven by SLR but also by changes in local exposure. The \r\nfrequency of nuisance flooding along the US east coast is expected \r\nto accelerate further in the future (Sweet and Park, 2014). The loss \r\nof coral reef cover and mangrove forests have also been shown to \r\nincrease damages from storm surge events (e.g., Beck et al. 2018). \r\nCyclones also affect marine life, habitats and fishing. There is some \r\nevidence that fish may evacuate storm areas or be redistributed by \r\nstorm waves and currents (FAO, 2018; Sainsbury et al. 2018). Other \r\nexamples of damage to fisheries from cyclones and storm surges can \r\nbe found in FAO (2018: Chapter V, Table 1)."


id: ce71ab6718ecdbdba3d243ebf5ceb3a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33663
content:
"In the USA, Garner et  al. (2017) combine downscaled TCs, storm \r\nsurge models, and probabilistic SLR projections to assess flood hazard \r\nassociated with changing storm characteristics and SLR in New York City \r\nfrom the pre-industrial era to 2300. Increased storm intensity was found \r\nto compensate for offshore shifts in storm tracks leading to minimal \r\nchange in modelled storm surge heights through 2300. However, \r\nprojected SLR leads to large increases in future overall flood heights \r\nassociated with TCs in New York City. Consequently, flood height return \r\nperiods that were ~500y (0.2% probability of occurring in a given \r\nyear) during the pre-industrial era have fallen to ~25y (4% probability \r\nof occurring annually) at present and are projected to fall to ~5y \r\n(20% probability of occurring annually) within the next three decades."


id: abca9df387c9fa2e34d84c0f50a2205b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27466
content:
"With regard to property losses, according to most projections, \r\nincreasing losses from more intense cyclones are not offset by \r\na possible reduction in frequency (Handmer et al. 2012). While the \r\nrelation between aggregate damages and frequency may be linear, the \r\nrelationship between intensity and damages is most probably highly \r\nnonlinear; with research suggesting a 10% increase in wind speed \r\nassociated with a 30-40% increase in damages (e.g., Strobl, 2012). \r\nAlthough it is clear that direct damages from cyclones could "


id: a903c81d062fe0da071790e141db637
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26946
content:
"In summary, new studies on observed wave climate change from \r\n1985-2018 showed small increases in significant wave height of \r\n+0.3  cm/year and larger increases in 90th percentile wave heights "


id: 9445e944afe1daf97800772794c15358
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23291
content:
"storms to which people were used to (Lejano et al. 2016). Negative \r\nexperiences of previous evacuations also lead to the reluctance of \r\nauthorities to issue mandatory evacuation orders, for example, \r\nduring Superstorm Sandy (Kulkarni et al. 2017), and contributes to \r\na preventable high number of casualties (Dalisay and De Guzman, \r\n2016). These examples also show that saving lives and assets through \r\nwarning and evacuation is limited. Providing biophysical protection \r\nmeasures as well as improving self-reliance during such events can \r\ncomplement warning and evacuation. "


id: 201060e7fd748402e0fa3705757efe21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2861
content:
"An assessment of future changes in coastal impacts based on direct \r\ndownscaling of indicators of flooding such as total water level and \r\nnumber of hours per year with breakwater overtopping over a given \r\nthreshold for port operability is provided by Camus et al. (2017). These \r\nindicators are multivariable and include the combined effect of SLR, \r\nstorm surge, astronomical tide and waves. Regional projected wave \r\nclimate is downscaled from global multi-model projections from \r\n30 CMIP5 model realisations. For example, projections by 2100 under \r\nthe RCP8.5 scenario show a spatial variability along the coast of \r\nChile with port operability loss between 600-800 h yr-1 and around \r\n200 h yr-1 relative to present (1979-2005) conditions. Although wave \r\nchanges are included in projected overtopping distributions, future \r\nchanges of operability are mainly due to the SLR contribution."


id: 332f0ec099b95eb69e130031c34b5d6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6262
content:
"If rebuilding in situ is pursued after catastrophic events and without \r\ndecreased exposure, it is often accompanied by actions that aim \r\nto reduce vulnerability in order to adapt to the increasing risk \r\n(Harman et al. 2013). In many cases, resilient designs and sustainable \r\nurban plans integrating climate change concerns, that are inclusive \r\nof vegetation barriers as coastal defences and hybrid designs, are \r\nconsidered (Cheong et al. 2013; Saleh and Weinstein, 2016). However, \r\noften more physical structures that are known to be less sustainable \r\nin the long-term, but potentially more protective in the short-term, \r\nare constructed (Knowlton and Rotkin-Ellman, 2014; Rosenzweig \r\nand Solecki, 2014). Anticipatory planning approaches are under way \r\nto warn and enable decision making in time (Bloemen et al. 2018; \r\nLawrence et al. 2018)."


id: db62d6d25253a2e076579400ed1d7316
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35868
content:
"The most effective risk management strategy in the last few decades \r\nhas been the development of early warning systems for cyclones \r\n(Hallegatte, 2013). Generally, however, a lack of familiarity with the \r\nchanged nature of storms prevails. Powerful storms often generate \r\nrecord storm surges (Needham et al. 2015), such as in the cases of \r\nCyclone Nargis and Typhoon Haiyan but surge warnings had been less \r\nwell understood and followed because they had tended to be new or \r\nrare to the locality (Lagmay et al. 2015). A US study on storm surge \r\nwarnings highlights the issue of the right timing to warn, as well as \r\nthe difficulty in delivering accurate surge maps (Morrow et al. 2015). \r\nPrevious experience with warnings that were not followed by hazard \r\nevents show the 'crying wolf' problem leading many to ignore future \r\nwarnings (Bostrom et al. 2018)."


id: d9538ed1581315ae53961561be3b5f32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35537
content:
"There is scant literature on the management of storms that \r\nfollow less common trajectories. The most recent and relatively \r\nwell-studied ones are Superstorm Sandy in 2012 in the USA and \r\nTyphoon Haiyan in 2013 in the Philippines. These two storms were \r\nunexpected and having underestimated the levels of impact, people \r\nignored warnings and evacuation directives. In the case of Typhoon \r\nHaiyan, the dissemination of warnings via scripted text messages \r\nwere ineffective without an explanation of the difference between \r\nHaiyan's accompanying storm surge and that of other 'normal' "


id: b177f4f788de6058b0d744de122d357c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28447
content:
"AR5 concluded that it is virtually certain that the global ocean \r\ntemperature in the upper few hundred meters has increased from \r\n1971-2010 (Rhein et al. 2013), and that the temperature is projected \r\nto further increase during the 21st century (Collins et al. 2013). For \r\nan update on observed and projected long-term changes in ocean \r\ntemperature and heat, see Chapter 5. "


id: 637fcde0a52e4fde921f17b6b6ed5a67
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14798
content:
"For example, predominant La Nina conditions in 2010 and 2011 \r\nstrengthened and shifted the Leeuwin Current southward along the \r\nwest coast of Australia leading to the Western Australia 2011 MHW \r\n(Pearce and Feng, 2013; Kataoka et al. 2014). Another example is The \r\nBlob, which emerged in 2013 in response to teleconnections between \r\nthe North Pacific and the weak El Nino that drove strong positive \r\nsea level pressure anomalies across the northeast Pacific inducing \r\na smaller heat loss from the ocean (Bond et al. 2015; Di Lorenzo and \r\nMantua, 2016). Low sea ice concentrations in the Arctic, however, \r\nmay have also played a role (Lee et al. 2015a). "


id: 5f66d99da2da52b23efa3a0d13cb1acc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14092
content:
"Superimposed onto the long-term ocean warming trend are short\u0002term extreme warming events, called MHWs, during which ocean \r\ntemperatures are extremely high. Whereas the response of marine \r\norganisms and ecosystems to gradual trends in temperature \r\nhas been assessed in AR5 (e.g., Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. 2014; \r\nPortner et al. 2014), research on the response of the natural, physical \r\nand socioeconomic systems to MHWs has newly emerged since AR5. \r\nNotable exceptions are studies on the effect of MHWs on intertidal \r\nsystems and tropical coral reef ecosystems, which have been already \r\nassessed in AR5 (Gattuso et al. 2014; Portner et al. 2014)."


id: d3acfe35f2ef01e56c8d8a3d87474bec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34581
content:
"The buildup and decay of extreme warm SSTs may also be caused \r\nby small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes, such as ocean \r\nmesoscale eddies or local atmospheric weather patterns (Carrigan \r\nand Puotinen, 2014; Schlegel et al. 2017a; Schlegel et al. 2017b). For \r\nexample, the Tasman Sea 2015-2016 MHW was caused by enhanced \r\nsouthward transport in the East Australian current driven by increased \r\nwind stress curl across the mid-latitude South Pacific (Oliver and \r\nHolbrook, 2014; Oliver et al. 2017) with local downwelling-favourable \r\nwinds also having played a role in the subsurface intensification of \r\nthe MHW (Schaeffer and Roughan, 2017). In addition, the 2016 MHW \r\nin the southern part of the Great Barrier Reef was mitigated by the \r\nETC Winston that passed over Fiji on February 20th. The cyclone \r\ncaused strong winds, cloud cover and rain, which lowered SST and \r\nprevented corals from bleaching (Hughes et al. 2017b). "


id: add057b04fa655e977287e8ed21c89d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27824
content:
"MHWs have been observed and documented in all ocean basins over \r\nthe last two decades (Figure 6.3a, Figure 6.2, Table 6.2). Prominent \r\nexamples include the Northeast Pacific 2013-2015 MHW (often \r\ncalled 'The Blob'; Bond et al. 2015), the Yellow Sea/East China Sea \r\n2016 MHW (KMA, 2016; KMA, 2017; KMA, 2018), the Western \r\nAustralia 2011 MHW (Pearce and Feng, 2013; Kataoka et al. 2014), \r\nand the Northwest Atlantic 2012 MHW (Mills et al. 2013)."


id: ad0344c6732fc46ea119566322bc4b10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27678
content:
"The observed trend towards more frequent, intense and extensive \r\nMHWs, defined relative to a fixed baseline period, is very likely due \r\nto the long-term anthropogenic increase in mean ocean temperatures, \r\nand cannot be explained by natural climate variability (Frolicher et al. \r\n2018; Oliver et al. 2018a; Oliver, 2019). As climate models project a long\u0002term increase in ocean temperatures over the 21st century (Collins et al. \r\n2013), a further increase in the probability of MHWs under continued \r\nglobal warming can be expected (see Section 6.4.1.3). Extending the \r\nanalysis to the pre-satellite period (before 1982) by using a combination \r\nof daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ based data "


id: a64d836b1ce81d20d19c62292973f1c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26476
content:
"sets, Oliver et al. (2018a) show that the global frequency and duration \r\nof MHWs have increased since 1925. At regional scale, MHWs have \r\nbecome more common in 38% of the world's coastal ocean over the \r\nlast few decades (Lima and Wethey, 2012). In tropical reef systems, \r\nthe interval between recurrent MHWs and associated coral bleaching \r\nevents has diminished steadily since 1980, from once every 25 to \r\n30 years in early 1980s to once every 6 years in 2016 (Hughes et al. \r\n2018a). Due to the scarcity of below surface temperature data with \r\nhigh temporal and spatial resolution, it is currently unknown if and how \r\nMHWs at depth have changed over the past decades. "


id: 9985d2f4d6aa50c23c97310bf00e27e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24238
content:
"Several attribution studies (summarised in Table 6.2) have investigated \r\nif the likelihood of individual MHW events has changed due to \r\nanthropogenic warming. On a global scale and at present day (2006-\r\n2015), climate models suggest that 84-90% (very likely range) of all \r\nglobally occurring MHWs are attributable to the temperature increase \r\nsince 1850-1900 (Fischer and Knutti,  2015; Frolicher et  al. 2018). \r\nAttribution studies on individual MHW events show that the intensity \r\nof the western tropical Pacific MHW in 2014 (Weller et al. 2015), the \r\nintensity of the Alaskan Sea 2016 MHW (Oliver et al. 2018b; Walsh \r\net al. 2018) and the extreme SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific \r\nin 2015-2016 can be fully attributed to anthropogenic warming. "


id: 8596cb7e8f470033f6f173f7be9bc66f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20644
content:
"2081-2100. The duration of MHW is projected to very likely increase \r\nfrom 8-10 days at 1850-1900, to 126-152 days in 2081-2100 \r\nunder the RCP8.5 scenario (Frolicher et  al. 2018). The maximum \r\nintensity (maximum exceedance of the 1850-1900 99th percentile) \r\nwill very likely increase from 0.3oC-0.4oC in 1850-1900, to 3.1oC-\r\n3.8oC in 2081-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under the RCP2.6 \r\nscenario, the magnitude of changes in the different MHW metrics \r\nwould be substantially reduced (Frolicher et al. 2018). For example, \r\nthe probability ratio would very likely increase by a factor of 16-24 \r\nby 2081-2100 for RCP2.6; less than half of that is projected for the \r\nRCP8.5. The magnitude of changes in the probability ratio scales with \r\nglobal mean atmospheric surface temperature and is independent \r\nof the warming path (Figure 6.4b), that is, it does not depend on \r\nwhether a particular warming level is reached sooner (RCP8.5) or \r\nlater (RCP2.6)."


id: 3644f764b0d00d37a4d828f218942349
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6787
content:
"We conclude that it is very likely that MHWs have increased in \r\nfrequency, duration and intensity since pre-industrial (1850-1900), \r\nand that between 2006-2015 most MHWs (84-90%; very likely \r\nrange) are attributable to the temperature increase since 1850-1900. \r\nOnly few studies on the attribution of individual MHW events exist, \r\nbut they all point to human influence on recent MHW events. "


id: 68a8a03a715535e7c48ff3c871559913
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15683
content:
"MHWs will increase in frequency, duration, spatial extent and \r\nintensity throughout the ocean under future global warming \r\n(Oliver et al. 2017; Ramirez and Briones, 2017; Alexander et al. 2018; \r\nFrolicher et  al. 2018; Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Darmaraki \r\net  al. 2019). Projections based on 12 CMIP5 Earth system models \r\nsuggest that, on global scale, the probability of MHWs exceeding the \r\npre-industrial (1850-1900) 99th percentile will very likely increase \r\nby a factor of 20-27 by 2031-2050 and very likely by a factor of \r\n46-55 by 2081-2100 under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas (GHG) \r\nscenario (Figure 6.4a; Frolicher et al. 2018). In other words, a one-in\u0002hundred-day event at pre-industrial levels is projected to become a \r\none-in-four-day event by 2031-2050 and a one-in-two-day event by "


id: d20e4a29cd57e580eee1f6fe8b738a12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34311
content:
"The projected changes in MHWs will not be globally uniform. CMIP5 \r\nmodels project that the largest increases in the probability of MHWs \r\nwill occur in the tropical ocean, especially in the western tropical \r\nPacific, and the Arctic Ocean (Figure 6.4c,d), and that most of the \r\nlarge marine ecosystems will also experience large increases in the "


id: 907e49d7201543d227bb9dad61deccd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22626
content:
"Most of the global changes in the probability of MHWs, when \r\ndefined relative to a fixed temperature climatology and using coarse \r\nresolution CMIP5-type climate models, are driven by the global-scale \r\nshift in the mean ocean temperature (Alexander et al. 2018; Frolicher \r\net  al. 2018). However, previously ice-covered regions, such as the \r\nArctic Ocean, will exhibit larger SST variability under future global \r\nwarming. This is because of an enhanced SST increase in summer \r\ndue to sea ice retreat, but SST remaining near the freezing point in \r\nwinter (Carton et al. 2015; Alexander et al. 2018). When contrasting \r\nthe changes in the probability of MHWs with land-based heatwaves \r\n(Fischer and Knutti, 2015), it is evident that MHWs are projected to \r\noccur more frequently (Frolicher et al. 2018; Frolicher and Laufkotter, \r\n2018). This is because the temperature variability is much smaller \r\nin ocean surface waters than in the atmosphere (Frolicher and \r\nLaufkotter, 2018). "


id: 34285a41b490a14b12d494aa101fd16e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6414
content:
"We conclude that there is very high confidence that MHWs will increase \r\nin frequency, duration, spatial extent and intensity in all ocean basins \r\nunder future global warming, mainly because of an increase in mean \r\nocean temperature. However, higher resolution models are needed to \r\nmake robust projections at the local-to-regional scale. "


id: 5ecf572eb96ae7aa3e864ea4b4290f65
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13972
content:
"Temperature plays an essential role in the biology and ecology of marine \r\norganisms (e.g., Portner, 2002; Portner and Knust, 2007; Poloczanska \r\net al. 2013; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2014), and therefore extreme high \r\nocean temperature can have large impacts on marine ecosystems. \r\nRecent studies show that MHWs have strongly impacted marine \r\norganisms and ecosystem services in all ocean basins (Smale et al. 2019) \r\nover the last two decades. Impacts include coral bleaching and \r\nmortality (Hughes et  al. 2017b; Hughes  et  al.  2018a; Hughes et  al. \r\n2018b), loss of seagrass and kelp forests (Smale et al. 2019), shifts in \r\nspecies range (Smale and Wernberg, 2013), and local (Wernberg et al. \r\n2013; Wernberg et al. 2016) and potentially global extinctions of coral \r\nspecies (Brainard et al. 2011). "


id: 9c749249e0e052c12e7d264aed2cd9d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24778
content:
"atmosphere and oceans, and changes in the mean climate. Therefore, \r\nwe conclude that there is currently low confidence in how MHWs \r\nimpact the weather systems over land. "


id: 2520bd9cf4b40e126945476f658fadc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3724
content:
"Based on the examples described above we conclude with very high \r\nconfidence that a range of organisms and ecosystems have been \r\nimpacted by MHWs across all ocean basins over the last two decades. \r\nGiven that MHWs will very likely increase in intensity and frequency \r\nwith further climate warming, we conclude with high confidence that \r\nthis will push some marine organisms, fisheries and ecosystem beyond \r\nthe limits of their resilience. These impacts will occur on top of those \r\nexpected from a progressive shift in global mean ocean temperatures. "


id: 7d3a751186bb7265eda6653465171795
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19209
content:
"Studies on the impact of MHWs on human systems are still relatively \r\nscarce, even though many show negative impacts on human health \r\nand economy. We therefore conclude with medium confidence that \r\nMHWs can negatively impact human health and economy. "


id: 6278c128b36bf4ce8a59becbf1cb8e44
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14607
content:
"Risk management strategies to respond to MHWs include early \r\nwarning systems as well as seasonal (weeks to several months) and \r\nmulti-annual predictions systems. Since 1997, the National Oceanic \r\nand Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch has \r\nused satellite SST data to provide near real-time warning of coral "


id: fdb16feb83f1b6d9c8bf2bbc35bbde89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41994
content:
"predictions, and may facilitate comparison, public communication \r\nand familiarity with MHWs. Similar metrics (e.g., DHW) have been \r\nsuccessfully developed and used to identify ocean regions where \r\nconditions conducive to coral bleaching are developing. "


id: 537fba4116b797e5e2813c0f6663a016
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11964
content:
"AR5 (Christensen et al. 2013) and SREX do not provide a definition for \r\nan extreme El Nino but mention such events, especially in the context \r\nof the 1997-1998 El Nino and its impacts. AR5 and SREX concluded \r\nthat confidence in any specific change in ENSO variability in the \r\n21st century is low. However, they did note that due to increased \r\nmoisture availability, precipitation variability associated with ENSO is \r\nlikely to intensify. Since AR5 and SREX, there is now a limited body of \r\nliterature that examines the impact of climate change on ENSO over \r\nthe historical period."


id: e5b4533eeb6bce73a5a687595f76597
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37717
content:
"Even with a monitoring and prediction system in place, MHWs \r\nhave developed without warning and had catastrophic effects \r\n(Payne et al. 2017). For example, governmental agencies, socioeconomic \r\nsectors, public health officials and citizens were not forewarned of the \r\nCoastal Peruvian 2017 MHW, despite a basin-wide monitoring system \r\nacross the Pacific. The reason was partly due to a coastal El  Nino \r\ndefinition problem and a new government (in Nicaragua) that may have \r\nhindered actions (Ramirez and Briones, 2017). Therefore, early warning \r\nsystems should not only provide predictions of physical changes, but \r\nshould also connect different institutions to assist decision makers in \r\nperforming time-adaptive measures (Chang et al. 2013). "


id: d0016814f087c477393332a8d3953a4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33947
content:
"Since SREX and AR5, an extreme El Nino event occurred in 2015-2016. \r\nThis has resulted in significant new literature regarding physical \r\nprocesses and impacts but there are no firm conclusions regarding \r\nthe impact of climate change on the event. The SST anomaly peaked \r\ntoward the central equatorial Pacific causing floods in many regions of \r\nthe world such as those in the west coasts of the USA and other parts \r\nof North America, some parts of South America close to Argentina \r\nand Uruguay, the UK and China (Ward et al. 2014; Ward et al. 2016; \r\nZhai et al. 2016; Scaife et al. 2017; Whan and Zwiers, 2017; Sun and \r\nMiao, 2018; Yuan et al. 2018). "


id: 37ab05183df05a9bbda4f5e151fe79d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7004
content:
"Monitoring and prediction systems are important and can be \r\nadvanced by the use of common metrics to describe MHWs. So far, \r\nMHWs are often defined differently in the literature, and it is only \r\nrecently that a categorising scheme (Categories I to IV; based on the \r\ndegree to which temperatures exceed the local climatology), similar to \r\nwhat is used for hurricanes, has been developed (Hobday et al. 2018). \r\nSuch a categorising scheme, can easily be applied to real data and "


id: 7d19f6a2797129c6f314db3fb0ff1adb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19196
content:
"The main new body of literature concerns future projections of the \r\nfrequency of occurrence and variability of extreme ENSO events \r\nwith improved confidence (Cai et al. 2014a; Cai et al. 2018). These \r\nstudies define extreme El Nino events as those El Nino events which \r\nare characterised by a pronounced eastward extension of the west \r\nPacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, \r\nand hence a rainfall increase of greater than 5 mm day-1 during \r\nDecember to February (above 90th percentile), in the usually cold \r\nand dry equatorial eastern Pacific (Nino 3 region, 150oW-90oW, \r\n5oS-5oN; Cai et al. 2014a), such as the 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and \r\n2015-2016 El Ninos (Santoso et al. 2017; Figure 6.5)."


id: 44d5a52e03af49df261f4e54ca77810
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9336
content:
"The background long-term warming puts the 2015-2016 El Nino \r\namong the three warmest in the instrumental records (24 El Nino \r\nevents occurred during 1900-2018; Huang et  al. 2016; Santoso \r\net  al.  2017). The 2015-2016 event can be viewed as the first \r\nemergence of an extreme El Nino in the 21st century - one which \r\nsatisfies the rainfall threshold definition, but not characterised by the \r\neastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool (L'Heureux et al. \r\n2017; Santoso et al. 2017)."


id: 3ef6ea7497b8798acd4bb9fa210db4c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8265
content:
"Based on the precipitation threshold, extreme El Nino frequency is \r\nprojected to increase with the global mean temperatures (medium \r\nconfidence) with a doubling in the 21st century under 1.5oC of global \r\nwarming, from about one event every 20 years during 1891-1990, \r\nto one every 10 years (Cai et  al. 2014a; Figure 6.5). The increase \r\nin frequency continues for up to a century even after global mean \r\ntemperature has stabilised at 1.5oC, thereby challenging the limits to \r\nadaptation, and hence indicates high risk even at the 1.5oC threshold \r\n(Wang et  al. 2017; Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. 2018). Meanwhile, the \r\nLa Nina events also tend to increase in frequency and double under "


id: f9a41e76b0476ecd1c27bca057fa0c76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41286
content:
"The Indian Ocean has experienced consistent warming from the \r\nsurface to 2,000 m during 1960-2015, with most of the warming \r\noccurring in the upper 300 m (Cheng et al. 2015; Nieves et al. 2015; \r\nCheng et al. 2017; Gnanaseelan et al. 2017). New historical ocean \r\nheat content (OHC) estimates show an abrupt increase in the Indian \r\nOcean upper 700 m OHC after 1998, contributing to more than 21% \r\nof the global ocean heat gain, despite representing only about 12% "


id: 64277e86294b70e40633a35dba464e73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14904
content:
"of the global ocean area (Cheng et al. 2017; Makarim et al. 2019). The \r\ntropical Indian Ocean SST has warmed by 1.04oC during 1950-2015, \r\nwhile the tropical SST warming is 0.83oC and the global SST warning \r\nis 0.65oC. More than 90% of the surface warming in the Indian \r\nOcean has been attributed to changes in GHG emissions (Dong \r\net al. 2014), with the heat redistributed in the basin via local ocean \r\nand atmospheric dynamics (Liu et al. 2015b), the ITF (Section 6.6.1; \r\nSusanto et al. 2012; Sprintall and Revelard, 2014; Lee et al. 2015b; \r\nSusanto and Song, 2015; Zhang et al. 2018) and the Walker circulation \r\n(Roxy et al. 2014; Abish et al. 2018). "


id: 3716d6d513bd0a45947fc60b4b7a1088
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6916
content:
"southern Africa (UNSCAP, 2015; WMO, 2016; Christidis et al. 2018b; \r\nFunk et al. 2018), and regional uptick in the number of reported cases \r\nof plague and hantavirus in Colorado and New Mexico, cholera in \r\nTanzania, dengue in Brazil and Southeast Asia (Anyamba et al. 2019) \r\nand Zika virus in South America (Caminade et al. 2017), including \r\nincreases in heat stroke cases (Christidis et al. 2018b). Substantial \r\neconomic losses had resulted from droughts and floods across \r\nvarious parts of the globe due to teleconnections. For instance, direct \r\nlosses of 10 billion USD (Sun and Miao, 2018; Yuan et al. 2018) and \r\n6.5 billion USD (Christidis et al. 2018b) were estimated to have been \r\nincurred from severe urban inundation in cities along the Yangtze \r\nRiver in China and the extreme drought in Thailand, respectively. "


id: e5d7b8beb4c029197ff1600b40a4252b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37739
content:
"ENSO events affect TCs activity through variations in the low-level wind \r\nanomalies, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, steering \r\nflow, the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical high in \r\nAsia (Yonekura and Hall, 2014; Zhang and Guan, 2014). The subsurface \r\nheat discharge due to El Nino can intensify TCs in the eastern Pacific \r\n(Jin et al. 2014; Moon et al. 2015b). TCs are projected to become more \r\nfrequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Nino events compared \r\nwith present climate El Nino events (medium confidence), and less \r\nfrequent during future-climate La Nina events, around a group of \r\nsmall island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and \r\nHawaii) in the Pacific (Chand et al. 2017). The Indian Ocean basin-wide \r\nwarming has led to an increase in TC heat potential in the Indian Ocean \r\nover the last 30 years, however the link to the changes in the frequency \r\nof TCs is not robust (Rajeevan et al. 2013)."


id: d50de555d719c5939b8f178b9907333d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34806
content:
"During the early stages of an extreme El Nino event (2015-2016 \r\nEl Nino), there is an initial decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations \r\nover the tropical Pacific Ocean, due to suppression of equatorial \r\nupwelling, reducing the supply of CO2 to the surface (Chatterjee et al. \r\n2017), followed by a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations due \r\nreduced terrestrial CO2 uptake and increased fire emissions (Bastos \r\net al. 2018). It is not clear how a future increase in the frequency \r\nextreme events would modulate the carbon cycle on longer decadal \r\ntime scales."


id: 3bde75bc9aca32b48fcadd3c398d535d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7725
content:
"and West Coast South America in JJA). Finally, changes in the mean \r\nand El Nino response may be in the opposite direction (Southeast \r\nAsia, JJA and Central North America, DJF). Such changes could have \r\nan impact on phenomena such as wildfires (Fasullo et  al. 2018). \r\nHowever, in many other regions that are currently impacted by El Nino, \r\ne.g.,  regions of South America, studies have found no significant \r\nchanges in the ENSO-precipitation relationship (Tedeschi and Collins, \r\n2017) and agreement between models for many regions suggests low \r\nconfidence in projections of teleconnection changes (Yeh et al. 2018)."


id: 509a5c6383b8a3e24b8caec67d2fdd81
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11457
content:
"Despite the specificity of each extreme El Nino event, their forecasting \r\nis expected to improve through monitoring of recently identified \r\nprecursory signals that peak in a window of two years before the \r\nevent (Varotsos et  al. 2016). An early warning system for coral \r\nbleaching associated, among other stressors, with extreme ENSO \r\nheat stress is provided by the NOAA Coral Reef Watch service with \r\na 5 km resolution (Liu et al. 2018). The impacts of ENSO-associated \r\nextreme heat stress are heterogeneous, indicating the influence \r\nof other factors either biotic such as coral species composition, \r\nlocal adaptation by coral taxa reef depth or abiotic such as local \r\nupwelling or thermal anomalies (Claar et al. 2018). When identified \r\nand quantified, these factors can be used for risk analysis and risk \r\nmanagement for these ecosystems."


id: 32b8dfe50266d786bb9cae872138a0f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6188
content:
"Section 3.6.5.1 in AR5 briefly described the Indonesian \r\nThroughflow  (ITF) but did not explain its variability and impacts. \r\nPalaeoclimate record, observations, and climate model studies \r\nsuggest that ITF plays an integral role in global ocean circulation, \r\ndirectly impacting mass, heat and freshwater budgets of the Pacific \r\nand Indian Oceans (high confidence). ITF is influenced by equatorial \r\nPacific trade wind system which experienced an unprecedented \r\nintensification during 2001-2014, resulting in enhanced ocean \r\nheat transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and influencing \r\nthe rate of global temperature change (medium confidence). Yet, \r\nnumerical models are not able to simulate the magnitude of decadal \r\nvariability and the inter-ocean link, which means there is low \r\nconfidence in future projections of the trade wind system."


id: 96d8bb67c80cda922789d38cfee10ec6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23736
content:
"Pacific SST cooling trends and strengthened the equatorial Pacific \r\ntrade winds have been linked to anomalously warm tropical Indian \r\nand Atlantic oceans. The period following the mid-1990s saw \r\na marked strengthening of both the easterly trade winds in the central \r\nequatorial Pacific (Figure 6.7) and the Walker circulation (L'Heureux \r\net al. 2013; England et al. 2014). Both the magnitude and duration of \r\nthis trend are large when compared with past variability reconstructed \r\nusing atmosphere reanalyses. (The 1886-1905 extreme weakening \r\ntrend is poorly constrained by observations and we note the disparity "


id: 1a0f6b65f3c6046bb5191f79da0e54f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1786
content:
"Interannual to decadal variability of Indo-Pacific SST variability is likely\r\nto affect extreme hydroclimate in East Africa (Ummenhofer et al. 2018). \r\nThe Pacific cooling pattern is often synonymous with predominance \r\nof La Nina events in 1998 and 2012 is linked to megadroughts in \r\nthe USA (Baek et al. 2019). On decadal to multidecadal time scales, \r\nPDO/IPO and Atlantic variability may have impacts on megadroughts \r\nin North America (Coats et al. 2016; Diodato et al. 2019) and Australia \r\n(Vance et al. 2015) as well as Indian subcontinent (Bao et al. 2015; \r\nJoshi  and Rai, 2015). It is likely that occurrence of megadroughts \r\nin North America and Australia increased (Kiem et  al. 2016; \r\nBaek et al. 2019). PDO and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation may also "


id: e7736ff9d9115660cd85e9bbb9166ec3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38018
content:
"influence the decadal variability of North Pacific nutrient, chlorophyll \r\nand zooplankton taxa (Di Lorenzo et al. 2013)."


id: 40dc0f6beea370038858d04ffc08cf36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8595
content:
"(Blaker  et  al.  2015). At 34.5oS, the mean AMOC is estimated as \r\n14.7 +- 8.3 x 106\r\n m3 s-1 over the period 2009-2017 (Meinen et al. \r\n2018) also with large interannual variability, while no trend has been \r\nidentified at this latitude. Estimates based on ocean reanalyses show \r\nconsiderable diversity in their AMOC mean state, and its evolution \r\nover the last 50 years (Karspeck et al. 2017; Menary and Hermanson, \r\n2018), because only very few deep ocean observations before the \r\nArgo era, starting around 2004, are available. During the Argo era, \r\nthe reanalyses agree better with each other (Jackson et al. 2016)."


id: 76738df7b18f0316470c7b2983dc7d7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18062
content:
"Palaeo-reconstructions indicate that the North Atlantic is a region \r\nwhere rapid climatic variations can occur (IPCC, 2013). Deep \r\nwaters formed in the northern North Atlantic induces a large-scale \r\nAMOC which transports large amounts of heat northward across \r\nthe hemispheres, explaining part of the difference in temperature \r\nbetween the two hemispheres, as well as the northward location of \r\nthe ITCZ (e.g., Buckley and Marshall, 2016). This circulation system \r\nis believed to be a key tipping point of the Earth's climate system \r\n(IPCC, 2013)."


id: 2f168706aef891d431f92e2477f8f2f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5555
content:
"Examination of 14 models from the CMIP5 archive, which do not \r\ntake into account the melting (either from runoff, basal melting or \r\nicebergs) from the GIS (cf. Section 6.7.1.2), led to the assessment that \r\nthe AMOC is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century in response \r\nto increasing GHG concentrations (IPCC, 2013). Nonetheless, the \r\nCMIP5 models agree that a weakening of the AMOC into the 21st \r\ncentury will lead to localised cooling (relative to the global mean) \r\ncentred in the North Atlantic SPG (Menary and Wood, 2018), \r\nalthough the precise location as well as the extension of this cooling \r\npatch, notably towards Europe, remains uncertain (Sgubin et al. 2017; \r\nMenary and Wood, 2018)."


id: 80deff889ed308f0c00337ebe874cae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19809
content:
"Abrupt variations in SST or sea ice cover have been found in 19 out \r\nof the 40 models of the CMIP5 archive (Drijfhout et al. 2015). Large \r\ncooling trends, which can occur in a decade, are found in the subpolar \r\nNorth Atlantic in 9 out of 40 models. Results show that the heat \r\ntransport in the AMOC plays a role in explaining such a rapid cooling, \r\nbut other processes are also key for setting the rapid (decadal-scale) "


id: 5cbcba01ca6cea69ab1647ccd0dfb671
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13576
content:
"timeframe of SPG cooling, notably vertical heat transport in the ocean \r\nand interactions with sea ice and the atmosphere (Sgubin et al. 2017). \r\nUsing the representation of stratification as an emergent constraint, \r\nrapid changes in subpolar convection and associated cooling are \r\noccurring in the 21st century in 5 of the 11 best models (Sgubin et al. \r\n2017). The poor representation of ocean deep convection in most \r\nCMIP5 models has been confirmed in Heuze (2017), which can \r\nnotably limit a key feedback mechanism related with warm summer \r\nin the North Atlantic and its impact on oceanic convection in winter \r\n(Oltmanns et al. 2018). Thus, there is low confidence in the projections \r\nof SPG fate. Increasing the horizontal resolution of the ocean in next \r\ngeneration climate models might be a way to increase confidence in \r\nocean convection future changes."


id: 2ba488beb38d7d22b2617a3918e07e4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4934
content:
"showed a rapid cooling in the SPG within the 1970s cooling events, \r\nas a nonlinear response to aerosols (Bellucci et al. 2017). The SPG \r\ntherefore appears as a tipping element in the climate system, with \r\na faster (decade) response than the AMOC (century), but with lower \r\ninduced SST cooling. Thus, the SPG system can cross a threshold in \r\nclimate projections when surface water in the subpolar becomes \r\nlighter due to increase in temperature and decrease in salinity related \r\nwith changes in radiative forcing (Sgubin et al. 2017)."


id: e3f614030766cc3b9f02c20f026efa8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37396
content:
"The SPG dynamical system has been identified as a tipping element \r\nof the climate system (Mengel et al. 2012; Born et al. 2013). If this \r\nelement reaches its tipping point, the SPG circulation can change \r\nvery abruptly between different stable steady states, due to positive \r\nfeedback between convective activity and salinity transport within \r\nthe gyre (Born et  al. 2016). It has been argued that a transition \r\nbetween two SPG stable states can explain the onset of the Little \r\nIce Age that may have occurred around the 14-15th century (Lehner \r\net al. 2013; Schleussner et al. 2015; Moreno-Chamarro et al. 2017) \r\npossibly triggered by large volcanic eruption (Schleussner and \r\nFeulner, 2013). Furthermore a few CMIP5 climate models also "


id: f7db2f4d8fe61bd089c0a41b004b261f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40982
content:
"changes, which is mainly driven by emission scenario after a few \r\ndecades (Frolicher et al. 2016). To explain the AMOC decline, a new \r\nmechanism has been proposed on top of the classical changes in \r\nheat and freshwater forcing (Gregory et al. 2016). A potential role \r\nfor sea ice decrease has been highlighted (Sevellec et  al. 2017), \r\ndue to large heat uptake increase in the Arctic leading to a strong \r\nwarming of the North Atlantic, increasing the vertical stability of the \r\nupper ocean, as already observed in the Greenland and Iceland seas \r\n(Moore et al. 2015). It has also been showed that convection sites \r\nmay move northward in future projections, following the sea ice edge \r\n(Lique and Thomas, 2018)."


id: 1b7166b5989f78a5f81280b7fd1d1ea5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2004
content:
"between enhanced freshwater fluxes and suppressed formation of \r\nNorth Atlantic Deep Water (Yang et al. 2016b). This hypothesis has \r\nbeen further supported by high-resolution ocean-only simulations \r\nshowing that GIS melting may have affected the Labrador Sea \r\nconvection since 2010, which may imply an emerging on-going \r\nimpact of this melting on the SPG but a still non-detectable impact on \r\nthe AMOC (Boning et al. 2016). Thus, while some studies argue that \r\nthis melting may have affected the evolution of the AMOC over the \r\n20th century (Rahmstorf et al. 2015; Yang et al. 2016b), considerable \r\nvariability and limitation in ocean models restrain the full validation \r\nof this hypothesis, which remains model dependent (Proshutinsky \r\net  al. 2015; Dukhovskoy et  al. 2016). Furthermore, some deep \r\nconvection events resumed since 2014 (Yashayaev and Loder, 2017). "


id: 2f64ba732a190b9b0afbeffc9c9b284a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5601
content:
"The impact of GIS melting is neglected in AR5 projections \r\n(Swingedouw et  al. 2013) but has been considered in a recent \r\nmulti-model study (Bakker et al. 2016; Figure 6.9). The decrease of \r\nthe AMOC in projections including this melting term is depicted in \r\nFigure 6.9. GIS melting estimates added in those simulations were \r\nbased on the Lenaerts et  al. (2015) approach, using a regional \r\natmosphere model to estimate GIS mass balance. Results from eight \r\nclimate models and an extrapolation by an emulator calibrated on \r\nthese models showed that GIS melting has an impact on the AMOC, \r\npotentially adding up to around 5-10% more AMOC weakening in "


id: 754cbb2da1705f238fbf6a81ef98cdd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17869
content:
"Satellite data indicate accelerated mass loss from the GIS beginning \r\naround 1996, and freshwater contributions to the subpolar North \r\nAtlantic from Greenland, Canadian Arctic Archipelago glaciers and sea \r\nice melt totalling around 60,000 m3\r\n s-1 in 2013, a 50% increase since \r\nthe mid-1990s (Yang et al. 2016b), in line with more recent estimates \r\n(Bamber et al. 2018). This increase in GIS melting is unprecedented \r\nover the last 350 years (Trusel et al. 2018). Since the mid-1990s, there \r\nhas been about a 50% decrease in the thickness of the dense water \r\nmass formed in the Labrador Sea, suggesting a possible relationship "


id: 8bf33658c46d3f8e1d07b5c74ceab1b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21793
content:
"2100 under RCP8.5. Based on Figure 6.8 and 6.9, the risk of collapse \r\nbefore the end of the century is very unlikely, although biases in \r\npresent-day climate models only provide medium confidence in this \r\nassessment. By 2290-2300, Bakker et al. (2016; Figure 6.9) estimated \r\nat 44% the likelihood of an AMOC collapse in RCP8.5 scenario, while \r\nthe AMOC weakening stabilises in RCP4.5 (37% reduction, (15-65%) \r\nvery likely range). This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be \r\navoided in the long term by mitigation."


id: 1847eadd8dff3af8091c4be3da52e70e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1474
content:
"or SPG changes and their teleconnections in the atmosphere \r\nand ocean are supported by a large amount of palaeo-evidence \r\n(Lynch-Stieglitz, 2017). Such impacts and teleconnections have been \r\nfurther evaluated over the last few years both using new palaeo\u0002data and higher resolution models. Furthermore, multi-decadal \r\nvariations in SST observed over the last century, the so-called \r\nAtlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) or Atlantic Multidecadal \r\nOscillation (AMO), also provide observational evidence of potential \r\nimpacts of changes in ocean circulation. Nevertheless, due to a lack \r\nof long-term direct measurements of the Atlantic Ocean circulation, \r\nthe exact link between SST and circulation remains controversial \r\n(Clement et al. 2015; Zhang, 2017). "


id: bdee8f9a63dbd7be85e347d089b81a0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30678
content:
"Regarding the near-term changes of the AMOC, decadal prediction \r\nsystems are now in place. They indicate a clear impact of the AMOC \r\non the climate predictability horizon (Robson et al. 2012; Persechino \r\net al. 2013; Robson et al. 2013; Wouters et al. 2013; Msadek et al. \r\n2014; Robson et al. 2018), and a possible weakening of the AMOC in \r\nthe coming decade (Smith et al. 2013; Hermanson et al. 2014; Yeager \r\net  al. 2015; Robson et  al. 2016), although not true in all decadal \r\nprediction systems (Yeager et al. 2018). All these prediction systems \r\ndo not account for future melting of the GIS yet. "


id: 494ce68b071591bae65544608a2fdeb3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10116
content:
"Even though the AMOC is very unlikely to collapse over the \r\n21st century, its weakening may be substantial, which may \r\ntherefore induce strong and large-scale climatic impacts with \r\npotential far-reaching impacts on natural and human systems \r\n(e.g., Good et al. 2018). Furthermore, the SPG subsystem has been \r\nshown to potentially shift, in the future, into a cold state over \r\na decadal time scale, with significant climatic implications for the \r\nNorth Atlantic bordering regions (Sgubin et  al. 2017). There have \r\nbeen far more studies analysing impacts on climate of an AMOC \r\nweakening than SPG collapse. We will thus in the following mainly \r\ndepict impacts of an AMOC substantial weakening. "


id: 808afd7100b11bcda2a3e16163b7aeb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19742
content:
"The AR5 report concludes that based on palaeoclimate data, large \r\nchanges in the Atlantic Ocean circulation can cause worldwide \r\nclimatic impacts (Masson-Delmotte et  al. 2013), with notably, for \r\nan AMOC weakening, a cooling of the North Atlantic, a warming \r\nof the South Atlantic, less evaporation and therefore precipitation \r\nover the North Atlantic, and a shift of the ITCZ. Impacts of AMOC "


id: c9e4c404056918e4883a714f26f7f6d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32848
content:
"opportunities. The number of tropical storms in the North Atlantic \r\nhas been found to be very sensitive to the AMOC (Delworth and \r\nZeng, 2016; Yan et al. 2017) as well as to the SPG (Hermanson et al. \r\n2014) variations, so that a large weakening of the AMOC or cooling \r\nof the SPG may decrease the number of Atlantic tropical storms. \r\nThe Asian monsoon may also potentially weaken in the case of \r\nlarge changes in the AMOC (Marzin et al. 2013; Jackson et al. 2015; \r\nZhou et al. 2016; Monerie et al. 2019) implying substantial adverse \r\nimpacts on populations. The interactions of the Atlantic basin with \r\nthe Pacific has also been largely discussed over the last few years, \r\nwith the supposed influence of a cool North Atlantic inducing \r\na warm tropical Pacific (McGregor et al. 2014; Chafik et al. 2016; \r\nLi  et  al. 2016b), although not found in all models (Swingedouw \r\net  al. 2017), which may induce stronger amplitudes of El Nino \r\n(Dekker et al. 2018)."


id: 90ab21a420ed378f7351a93780b5e8ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22658
content:
"of centimetres along the western boundary of the North Atlantic \r\n(Ezer et al. 2013; Little et al. 2017; cf. Chapter 5). For instance, such \r\na link may explain 30% of the extreme observed SLR event (a short\u0002lived increase of 12  mm during 2 years) in northeast America in \r\n2009-2010 (Ezer, 2015; Goddard et al. 2015). This illustrates that \r\nmonitoring changes in AMOC may have practical implications for \r\ncoastal protection."


id: e2629514e2617e819252c412883fe0ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37119
content:
"The AMOC teleconnections are widespread and notably strongly \r\naffect the tropical area, as evidenced in palaeo-data for the Sahel \r\nregion (Collins et  al. 2017; Mulitza et  al. 2017) and in model \r\nsimulations (Jackson et al. 2015; Delworth and Zeng, 2016). These \r\nteleconnections may affect vulnerable populations. For instance, \r\nDefrance et  al. (2017) found that a substantial decrease in the \r\nAMOC, at the very upper end of potential changes, may strongly \r\ndiminish precipitation in the Sahelian region, decreasing the millet \r\nand sorghum emblematic crop production, which may impact \r\nsubsistence of tens of millions of people, increasing their potential \r\nfor migration. Smaller amplitude variations in Sahelian rainfall, \r\ndriven by North Atlantic SST, has been found to be predictable up \r\nto a decade ahead (Gaetani and Mohino, 2013; Mohino et al. 2016; \r\nSheen et al. 2017), potentially providing mitigation and adaptation "


id: 7ed2b27160f082f0e782ad6bb6bb1c6b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19467
content:
"The AMOC plays an important function in transporting excess heat \r\nand anthropogenic carbon from the surface to the deep ocean \r\n(Kostov et al. 2014; Romanou et al. 2017), and therefore in setting \r\nthe pace of global warming (Marshall et al. 2014). A large potential \r\ndecline in the AMOC strength reduces global surface warming. \r\nThis is due to changes in the location of ocean heat uptake and "


id: 11033707bc1887f87c85f28cb4cf83c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 187
content:
"Following all these potential impacts, it has been suggested that \r\na collapse of the AMOC may have the potential to induce a cascade \r\nof abrupt events, related to the crossing of thresholds from different \r\ntipping points, itself potentially driven by GIS rapid melting. For \r\nexample, a collapse of the AMOC may induce causal interactions like \r\nchanges in ENSO characteristics (Rocha et al. 2018), dieback of the \r\nAmazon rainforest and shrinking of the WAIS due to seesaw effect, \r\nITCZ southern migration and large warming of the Southern Ocean \r\n(Cai et al. 2016). However, such a worst case scenario remains very \r\npoorly constrained quantitatively due to the large uncertainty in GIS \r\nand AMOC response to global warming. "


id: ccd8434c56c849911430b868dad29e85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33370
content:
"The potential impacts of such rapid changes in ocean circulation on \r\nagriculture, economy and human health remain poorly evaluated up \r\nto now with very few studies on the topic (Kopits et al. 2014). The \r\navailable impact literature on AMOC weakening has focussed on \r\nimpacts from temperature change only (reduced warming), globally \r\nleading to economic benefits (e.g., Anthoff et  al. 2016), and local \r\nlosses can amount to a few percent of gross domestic product (GDP), \r\nhowever under a complete shutdown (Link and Tol, 2011). Declines in \r\nBarents Sea fish species could lead to economic losses (Link and Tol, \r\n2009), but more comprehensive economic studies are lacking."


id: 75af89e9269992d22df839a9efbff066
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17934
content:
"The numerous potential impacts of AMOC weakening (see \r\nSection  6.7.2) require adaptation responses. A specific adaptation \r\naction is a monitoring and early warning system using observation \r\nand prediction systems, which can help to respond in time to effects \r\nof an AMOC decline. Although it is difficult to warn very early for \r\nlarge changes in AMOC to come, notably due to large natural decadal \r\nvariability of the AMOC (Boulton et al. 2014), the observation arrays \r\nthat are in place may allow the development of such an early \r\nwarning system. Nevertheless, the prospects for its operational use \r\nfor early warnings have not yet been fully developed. In this respect, \r\ndeveloping early warning systems that do not depend on statistical \r\ntimeseries analysis of long observational record might be seen as an \r\nimportant research goal in the future."


id: deedcd5cdddb4e4405adae7fbeb4160e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36480
content:
"Acknowledging the dual role of regional SLR and TCs frequency and \r\nintensity changes for future flood risk, Little et al. (2015) developed \r\na flood index that takes account of local projected SLR along \r\nwith TC frequency and intensity changes in a CMIP5 multi-model \r\nensemble. They find that relative to 1986-2005, the Flood Index is \r\n4-75 times higher by 2080-2099 for RCP2.6 (10-90th percentile \r\nrange) and 35-350 times higher for RCP8.5. In the vicinity of the \r\nEast Australian Current, Pepler et  al. (2016b) found warmer SSTs \r\nboost the intensification of weak to moderate ETC's. Neglecting \r\nthe compounding effects of flood and extreme sea level drivers can \r\ncause significant underestimation of flood risk and projected failure \r\nprobability (Wahl et al. 2016; Moftakhari et al. 2017). "


id: 6ea16e5bdd85e9963a7ae95907cc8b17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16732
content:
"Compound events refer to events that are characterised by multiple \r\nfailures that can amplify overall risk and/or cause cascading impacts \r\n(Helbing, 2013; Gallina et al. 2016; Figure 6.1). These impacts may be \r\ntriggered by multiple hazards that occur coincidently or sequentially \r\nand can lead to substantial disruption of natural or human systems \r\n(Leonard et al. 2014; Oppenheimer et al. 2014; Gallina et al. 2016; \r\nZscheischler et al. 2018). These concepts are illustrated in a series \r\nof recent case studies that show how compound events interact \r\nwith multiple elements of the ecosystem and society to create \r\ncompound risk and cascading impacts (Box 6.1)."


id: 7b73472f6d2f3f0c2811740bd1eb265a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18924
content:
"To summarise, new studies highlight regions such as coasts including \r\nthose adjacent to WBCs, that are experiencing larger changes \r\nto multiple phenomena simultaneously such as SLR and cyclone \r\nintensity linked to higher SST increases (medium confidence), which \r\nincreases the likelihood of extremes from multiple hazards occurring \r\n(medium confidence). Failing to account for the multiple factors \r\nresponsible for extreme events will lead to an underestimation of the \r\nprobabilities of occurrence (high confidence)."


id: 993d755d01c557d938d3817ac3312680
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24176
content:
"Damage and loss of ecosystems (mangrove, coral reefs, polar deserts, \r\nwetlands and salt marshes); or regime shifts in ecosystem communities \r\nlead to reduced resilience of all the ecosystems and possible flow-on \r\neffects to human systems. For example, recent studies showed that \r\nliving corals and reef structures have experienced significant losses \r\nfrom human-related drivers such as coastal development; sand and \r\ncoral mining; overfishing, acidification, and climate-related storms and \r\nbleaching events (Smith, 2011; Nielsen et al. 2012; Hilmi et al. 2013; \r\nGraham et al. 2015; Lenoir and Svenning, 2015; Hughes et al. 2017b). \r\nAs a consequence, reef flattening is taking place globally due the loss \r\nof corals and from the bio-erosion and dissolution of the underlying \r\nreef carbonate structures (Alvarez-Filip et  al. 2009). Reef mortality "


id: 6627f200f27bc1de3de2a364d3239dc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15236
content:
"and flattening due to non-climate and climate-related drivers trigger \r\ncascading impacts and risks due to the loss of the protection services \r\nprovided to coastal areas. High emission scenarios are expected to \r\nlead to almost the complete loss of coral cover by 2100, although \r\npolicies aiming to lower the combined aerosol-radiation interaction \r\nand aerosol-cloud interaction (e.g.,  IPCC RCP  6.0) may partially \r\nlimit the impacts on coral reefs and the associated habitat loss, \r\nthereby preserving an estimated 14 to 20 billion USD in consumer \r\nsurplus 2100 (2014 USD, 3% discount; Speers et al. 2016). Moreover, \r\nprojected SLR will increase flooding risks, and these risks will be even \r\ngreater if reefs that now help protect coasts from waves are lost due \r\nto bleaching-induced mortality. "


id: aead286cff893f0c883261f573e4a27e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27965
content:
"subsequently can have an impact on local economies, potentially \r\nleading to social disruption and migration (Saha, 2017). Impacts \r\non marine ecosystems and habitats will also affect subsistence and \r\ncommercial fisheries and, as a  result, food security (Barrow et  al. \r\n2018). Climate-induced community relocations in Alaska stem from \r\nrepeated extreme weather events coupled with climate change\u0002induced coastal erosion and these impact the habitability of the \r\nwhole community (Bronen, 2011; Durrer and Adams, 2011; Marino, \r\n2011; Marino, 2012; Bronen and Chapin, 2013; see also Cross\u0002Chapter Boxes 2 and 5 in Chapter 1)."


id: 1116f51ab0d68e4d8ef7b0fad4605127
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 201
content:
"Despite difficulties of governance and decision making, many \r\nresearchers and policy makers have recognised the need to study \r\ncombined climatic and other hazards and their impacts. Several \r\nmethods are now being employed to assess climatic hazards \r\nand compound events simultaneously, and also in combination \r\n(Klerk  et  al. 2015; van den Hurk et  al. 2015; Wahl et  al. 2015; \r\nZscheischler and Seneviratne, 2017; Wu et al. 2018; Zscheischler et al. \r\n2018). Policy makers can also begin to plan for disaster risk reduction \r\nand adaptation, based on these analyses of compound events \r\nand risks. Addressing limitations in understanding the compound \r\nhazards, as well as adequate mechanisms of the cascading impacts \r\nis needed. Finally, there are limits to resources to study these "


id: 81b87b26831b9a3ba9311288bc6c6049
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19953
content:
"complex interactions in sufficient detail, as well as limits to data and \r\ninformation on past events that would allow the simulation of these \r\neffects, including economic impacts."


id: ef78276b312873430200b9bb499d1895
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39507
content:
"A small number of studies (Lontzek et  al. 2015; Cai et  al. 2016; \r\nLemoine and Traeger, 2016) use different versions of the Dynamic \r\nIntegrated Climate-Economy assessment model (Nordhaus, 1992; \r\nNordhaus, 2017) to assess the impact of diverse sets of tipping \r\npoints and causal interactions between them on the socially optimal \r\nreduction of gas emissions and the present social cost of carbon, \r\nrepresenting the economic cost caused by an additional ton of CO2\r\nemissions or its equivalent."


id: 6332e363ba507b063d71771519dc8b96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14745
content:
"The following case studies illustrate that anthropogenic climate change including ocean changes is increasingly having a discernible \r\ninfluence on elements of the climate system by exacerbating extreme events and causing multiple hazards, often with compound \r\nor sequential characteristics. In turn these elements are interacting with vulnerability and exposure to trigger compound events \r\nand cascading impacts."


id: 5370b1a0321d7bc53eaa1939c27119b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11956
content:
"Tasmania in southeast Australia experienced multiple extreme climate events in 2015-2016, driven by the combined \r\neffects of natural modes of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, with impacts on the energy sector, \r\nfisheries and emergency services. The driest warm season on record (October to April), together with the warmest summer on \r\nrecord, brought agricultural and hydrological droughts to Tasmania and preconditioned the sensitive highland environment for \r\nmajor fires during the summer. Thousands of lightning strikes during the first two months of the year led to more than 165 separate \r\nvegetation fires, which burned more than 120,000 hectares including highland zones and the World Heritage Area and incurred costs \r\nto the state of more than 50 million AUD (Press, 2016)."


id: fe0c98e80c59285c831b5aa88f8e035f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42061
content:
"In late January an intense cutoff low-pressure system brought heavy rainfall and floods, so that emergency services were simultaneously \r\ndealing with highland fires and floods in the east and north. The floods were followed by an extended wet period for Tasmania, with \r\nthe wettest wet season (April to November) on record in 2016. Meanwhile, an intense marine heatwave (MHW) off the east coast \r\npersisted for 251 days from spring 2015 through to autumn 2016 (Oliver et al. 2017)."


id: 5e7b052904674134830956bbd5814ac5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13914
content:
"The driest October on record was influenced by both the El Nino and anthropogenic forcing (Karoly et al. 2016). Warmer sea \r\nsurface temperatures (SSTs) due to anthropogenic warming may have increased the intensity of rainfall during the floods in January \r\n(e.g., Pepler et al. 2016a). The intensity and the duration of the MHW was unprecedented and both aspects had a clear human \r\nsignature (Oliver et al. 2017). "


id: 659c1d2d1d15a2eca25e47f4f8d6273a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15142
content:
"Tasmania primarily relies on hydro-electric power generation and the trading of power over an undersea cable to mainland Australia, \r\n'Basslink', for its energy needs. Lake levels in hydro-electric dams were at relatively low levels in early spring 2015, and the extended dry \r\nperiod led to further reductions and significantly reduced capacity to generate power (Hydro Tasmania, 2016). An unanticipated failure of \r\nthe Basslink cable subsequently necessitated the use of emergency diesel generators (Hydro Tasmania, 2016)."


id: f3461931d50f1e4c958606e81dd5daa5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40178
content:
"300 million USD. In response funding has been increased to government agencies responsible for managing floods and bushfires, \r\nand multiple independent reviews have recommended major policy reforms that are now under consideration (Blake, 2017; Tasmanian\r\nClimate Change Office, 2017)."


id: f9ac0212753c96fe7ea12c29755dc073
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41288
content:
"This case illustrates the concepts presented in Figure 6.1. Anthropogenic climate change likely contributed to the severity of multiple \r\nhazards; including coincident and sequential events (droughts and bushfires, followed by extreme rainfall and floods). Compound \r\nrisks, including risks for the safety of residents affected by floods and fires, the natural environment affected by MHWs and fires and \r\nthe economy in the food and energy sectors arose from these climate events with cascading impacts on the industrial sector more\r\nbroadly as it responded to the shortfall in energy supply. "


id: 90daa36f3b251211306bf3b49734283
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22692
content:
"Extremes experienced in 2015-2016 in Tasmania are projected to become more frequent or more intense due to climate change, \r\nincluding dry springs and summers (Bureau of Meteorology and Australian CSIRO, 2007), intense lows bringing extreme rains and \r\nfloods in summer (Grose et al. 2012), and MHWs on the east coast associated with convergence of heat linked to the East Australia \r\nCurrent (Oliver et al. 2017) indicating that climate change by increasing the frequency or intensity of multiple climate events will likely\r\nincrease compound risk and cascading impacts (high confidence)."


id: 2fbc181112299e60be361f1324e31d1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5654
content:
"The riches of the ecosystems in the Coral Triangle led to expanding human activities, such as coastal development to accommodate \r\na booming tourism sector and overfishing. There is agreement that these activities, including coastal deforestation, coastal reclamation, \r\ndestructive fishing methods and over-exploitation of marine life generate important pressures on the ecosystem (Pomeroy et al. 2015; \r\nFerrigno et al. 2016; Huang and Coelho, 2017). As a result, the coastal ecosystems of the Coral Triangle have already lost 40% of their \r\ncoral reefs and mangroves over the past 40 years (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2009). "


id: 60491257e51b2f6722109013f6f82884
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14239
content:
"At present, different approaches are used to manage the different risks to coral ecosystems in the Coral Triangle such as fisheries \r\nmanagement (White et al. 2014) and different conservation initiatives (Beger et al. 2015), including coral larval replenishment\r\n(dela Cruz and Harrison, 2017) and the establishment of a region-wide marine protected area system (e.g., Christie et al. 2016). "


id: 65843dc7b6afeb34ac0b29d0d66d0fb6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15127
content:
"There is high confidence that reefs with high species diversity are more resilient to stress, including bleaching (e.g., Ferrigno et al. 2016; \r\nMellin et al. 2016; Mori, 2016). Sustainable Management of coastal resources, such as marine protected areas is thus a commonly\r\nused management approach (White et al. 2014; Christie et al. 2016), supported in some cases by ecosystem modelling projections \r\n(Weijerman et al. 2015; Weijerman et al. 2016). Evaluations of these management approaches led to the development of guiding \r\nframeworks and supporting tools for coastal area managers (Anthony et al. 2015); however biological and ecological factors are still \r\nexpected to limit the adaptive capacity of these ecosystems to changes (Mora et al. 2016)."


id: d5db1d50e984f941d624ee079e3cc09c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34938
content:
"Case Study 3: Severe Atlantic Hurricanes of 2017\r\nThe above-average hurricane activity of the 2017 season led to the sequential occurrence of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria \r\non the Caribbean and southern US coasts (Klotzbach and Bell, 2017), collectively causing 265 billion USD damage and making 2017\r\nthe costliest hurricane season on record (Blake et al. 2011; Blake and Zelinsky, 2018). "


id: c1d406d3981f8fb5841d71c666a67cd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31403
content:
"The role of climate change in contributing to the severity of these recent hurricanes has been much discussed in the public and media. \r\nIt has not been possible to identify robust long-term trends in either hurricane frequency or strength given the large natural variability, \r\nwhich makes trend detection challenging especially given the opposing influences of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols on past\r\nchanges. However, observational data shows a warming of the surface waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and indeed most of the world's \r\noceans, over the past century as human activities have had an increasing impact on our climate (Sobel et al. 2016)."


id: 731335aceb95002b91828ef06a861e5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17496
content:
"Hurricane Harvey brought unprecedented rainfall to Texas and produced a storm surge that exceeded 2 m in some regions \r\n(Shuckburgh et al. 2017). Climate change increased the rainfall intensity associated with Harvey by at least 8% (8-19%; Risser \r\nand Wehner, 2017; van Oldenborgh et al. 2017) (high confidence). Emanuel (2017) estimated that the annual probability of 500 mm of \r\narea-averaged rainfall had increased from 1% in the period 1981-2000 to 6% in 2017. Furthermore, if society were to follow RCP8.5, \r\nthe probability would increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100. "


id: 33bd9b9f426fd5ceaf660740dfff03e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6347
content:
"The event attribution method of Emanuel (2017) indicates that for TC Irma, which impacted the Caribbean islands of Barbuda and \r\nCuba, the annual probability of encountering Irma's peak wind of 160 knots within 300 km of Barbuda increased from 0.13% in the\r\nperiod 1981-2000 to 0.43% by 2017, and will further increase to 1.3% by 2081-2100 assuming RCP8.5. TC Maria followed Irma, \r\nand made landfalls on the island of Dominica, Puerto Rico, and Turks and Caicos Islands. The annual probability of encountering\r\nMaria's peak wind of 150 knots within 150 km of 17oN, 64oW increased from 0.5% during 1981-2000 to 1.7% in 2017, and will \r\nincrease to 5% by 2081-2100 assuming RCP8.5. "


id: d91f6986eb990a3621d9784ebbb30a4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35494
content:
"Collectively, these case studies indicate that climate change has played a role in multiple coincident or sequential extreme events that \r\nhave led to cascading impacts (high confidence). Climate change is projected to increase the frequency or intensity of multiple climate \r\nevents in the future and this will likely increase risks of compound events and cascading impacts (high confidence)."


id: 20d9dff0af898642e72aa2c8aab0bd2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2999
content:
"As outlined earlier in this report, several approaches exist for adaptive \r\nresponses towards climate change impacts. Other sections that \r\ndeal with adaptation responses to extremes include Section  1.5.2, \r\nSection 4.4 (SLR and coastal flooding), Cross Chapter Box 4 in \r\nChapter 1 and Section 5.5.2.5 in Chapter 5 (adaptation limits for \r\ncoastal infrastructure and ecosystems). Here, we address adaptation \r\nresponses especially to abrupt and extreme changes (for responses to \r\nspecial abrupt changes (e.g., AMOC; see also Section 6.7)."


id: 70a991efaf1a36536083073dcd567629
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17080
content:
"Making appropriate decisions to manage abrupt change and \r\nextreme events given deep uncertainty is challenging (Weaver et al. \r\n2013; see Cross-Chapter Boxes 4 and 5 in Chapter 1). This requires \r\nthe construction of new models integrating different uncertainties \r\nunder extreme or abrupt scenarios and evaluation of value for money "


id: 8186606f0f2167d00247b7d1b0ae3eae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19915
content:
"(Birkmann and Welle, 2015). Such impacts can be assessed using \r\nconventional frameworks, but the debate on the precise scope of \r\nsuch impacts remains, including those from anthropogenic climate \r\nchange impacts as well as natural climate variability and extremes \r\n(e.g., James et al. 2014). More work is required to explore the range \r\nof activities available for responding to L&D resulting from slow onset \r\nprocesses in the scope of the SROCC report such as ocean acidification \r\n(Harrould-Kolieb and Hoegh-Guldberg, 2019) and mountain cryosphere \r\nchanges (Huggel et al. 2019)."


id: c08d524d7b6e057636378b343aaf9907
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31171
content:
"sharing among authorities, sectors and stakeholders, (ii) all-of-society \r\nengagement and partnership with empowerment and inclusive \r\nparticipation, and (iii) development of international, regional, \r\nsubregional and transboundary cooperation schemes (Gonzalez\u0002Riancho et al. 2017). In India, a change in the coordination structure \r\nwas pivotal in reducing fatalities from over 10,000 to 45 between \r\ncyclones Orissa (Odisha) in 1999 and Phailin in 2013. In this case, \r\nthe Disaster Management Act of 2005 established a comprehensive \r\npolicy and command and control system during disaster response \r\nthat empowered the most qualified government officials regardless of \r\ntheir rank. This system provides authority to and holds accountability \r\nfor those in charge of ground operations. Though this rigid system \r\nmay sometimes be questioned, a unified and top-down command \r\nstructure works better when there is a lack of mature disaster \r\nmanagement system (Pal et al. 2017)."


id: 8166c923522cee8b5d50a625111b218
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19895
content:
"In sum, limiting the risk from the impact of extreme events and \r\nabrupt changes leads to successful adaptation to climate change if \r\nclimate-affected sectors and disaster management relevant agencies \r\ncoordinate well (high confidence). Transformative governance, \r\nincluding successful integration of disaster risk management and \r\nclimate change adaptation, empowerment of vulnerable groups, \r\naccountability of governmental decisions, and longer-term planning \r\npromotes climate-resilient development pathways (high confidence). \r\nAn enhanced understanding of the institutional capacity as well as \r\nthe legal framework addressing abrupt changes and extreme events \r\nis especially important (medium confidence). "


id: 81f71ac15e43b5f4a5214d861132405e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19987
content:
"Given the significance of disaster risk reduction to enhance climate \r\nchange adaptation regardless of the integration of the two, the \r\nSendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 focuses \r\non seven targets and four priorities that foster participation beyond \r\ninformation sharing and include partnerships and collaborations \r\nwithin society (UNISDR, 2015). Inclusion of, and coordination \r\nbetween, different stakeholders is a key component for managing \r\nrisks of extreme events, including in a changing climate (medium \r\nconfidence). In the Wadden Sea coastal area, for example, crucial \r\nparts of coordinating disaster risk reduction, include (i) responsibility\u0002"


id: c93491420f5d1ef5b0eb731feaba7b9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32724
content:
"Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will reduce the occurrence of extreme events and the likelihood of abrupt changes. \r\nAbrupt changes can be irreversible on human time scales and, as tipping points, bring natural systems to novel conditions. To \r\nreduce risks that emerge from these impacts of climate change, communities can protect themselves or accommodate to the \r\nnew environment. In the last resort, they may retreat from exposed areas. Governance that builds on diverse expertise and \r\nconsiders a variety of actions is best equipped to manage remaining risks."


id: 2e6f18ad26f992510cb01810e18aa78f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5449
content:
"Climate change is projected to influence extreme events and to potentially cause abrupt changes in the ocean \r\nand the cryosphere. Both these phenomena can add to the other, slow-onset impacts of climate change, such as \r\na global warming or sea level rise (SLR). In addition, abrupt changes can be tipping points, bringing the ocean, \r\ncryosphere, as well as their ecosystems, or the whole climate system, to new conditions instead or going back to \r\nthe ones prevailing before the abrupt change."


id: 3ef768b2e977829e92ff72044d3d356f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8266
content:
"In the ocean, a possible abrupt change is associated with an interruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning \r\nCirculation (AMOC), an important component of global ocean circulation. A slowdown of the AMOC could \r\nhave consequences around the world: rainfall in the Sahel region could reduce, hampering crop production; \r\nthe summer monsoon in Asia could weaken; regional SLR could increase around the Atlantic, and there might \r\nbe more winter storms in Europe. The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered to be one of \r\nthe tipping points for the global climate. Such an event can be triggered when ice shelves break and ice flows \r\ntowards the ocean. While, in general, it is difficult to assess the probability of occurrence of abrupt climate \r\nevents they are physically plausible events that could cause large impacts on ecosystems and societies and may \r\nbe irreversible."


id: 912a99644e688b529aaf77ee4d8585bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22744
content:
"A comprehensive, detailed list of all the knowledge gaps that have \r\nbeen identified during the assessment performed in this chapter \r\nis not possible, hence we focus here on gaps that are relevant for \r\nmultiple phenomena."


id: 8b73e822418a1f8ee339c70999e568
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21696
content:
"Detection, attribution and projection of physical aspects of climate \r\nchange at regional and local scales are generally limited by \r\nuncertainties in the response of climate models to changes in GHGs \r\nand other forcing agents. Additionally, regionally-based attribution \r\nstudies for extreme events may be lacking in some areas, possibly \r\nreflecting the lack of capacity or imperative by regional and national \r\ntechnical institutions to undertake such studies. Thermodynamic \r\naspects of change may be more robust than those involving changes \r\nin dynamics e.g., the tracks of TCs or ocean dynamical components of \r\nMHW formation. Increasing resolution and improvements in climate \r\nmodels may help to reduce uncertainty. However, because extreme \r\nevents and highly nonlinear changes (e.g., AMOC collapse) are, by \r\ndefinition, found in the 'tails' of distributions, ensembles or long \r\nclimate model runs may be required."


id: ea94202662b99b386661912d94bbbcdf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38630
content:
"While it may not be possible to quantify the likelihood of very rare \r\nevents or irreversible phenomena, it may be possible to quantify \r\ntheir impacts on natural and human systems. Such information may \r\nbe more useful to policy makers (Sutton, 2018). Impacts on natural \r\nsystems (e.g., marine ecosystems) are in general better quantified \r\nthan impacts on human systems, but there are still many gaps in \r\nthe literature for the phenomena assessed here (e.g., future impacts \r\nof extreme El Nino and La Nina events). The body of literature on \r\ncompound risks and cascading impacts is growing but is still rather \r\nsmall. One area where there seems to be a serious lack of literature \r\nis in the assessment of the economic impacts of extreme and \r\nabrupt/irreversible events."


id: 5ae4a3b9af6f8363886519803cb8d309
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13238
content:
"Literature on managing risks and adaptation strategies for abrupt \r\nand irreversible events is sparse, as is the literature on the combined \r\nimpacts of climate-driven events and societal development or \r\nmaladaptation. The same is true for compound risks and cascading \r\nimpacts. Theory on transformative governance is emerging but \r\npractical demonstrations are few."


id: 66ef5b9b83a7cd647498ca30933a950b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15375
content:
"Finally, research is still often 'siloed' in physical modelling, ecosystem \r\nmodelling, social sciences etc. Researchers who can cross boundaries \r\nbetween these disciplines will help accelerate research in the areas \r\ncovered by this chapter."


id: e296a267d291a72fe564b3620fba91f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Matthias Garschagen (Germany), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), \r\nJohn E. Hay (Cook Islands/New Zealand), Nathalie Hilmi (Monaco/France), Elisabeth Holland (Fiji), \r\nFederico Isla (Argentina), Gary Kofinas (USA), Inigo J. Losada (Spain), Jan Petzold (Germany), \r\nBeate Ratter (Germany), Ted Schuur (USA), Tammy Tabe (Fiji), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands)"


id: 8d5f8387ee58de00dc84ac2112bace2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
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content:
"Magnan, A.K., M. Garschagen, J.-P. Gattuso, J.E. Hay, N. Hilmi, E. Holland, F. Isla, G. Kofinas, I.J. Losada, J. Petzold, B. \r\nRatter, T.Schuur, T. Tabe, and R. van de Wal, 2019: Cross-Chapter Box 9: Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on Low-Lying \r\nIslands and Coasts. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Portner, D.C. \r\nRoberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. \r\nPetzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In press."


id: fa19704a1779e9bae7f45c69743a3f2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"LLIC include a wide diversity of systems (Figure CB9.1). Relevant regions occur on both islands and continents from the \r\ntropics to the poles, and support urban and rural societies from across the development spectrum (including SIDS and Least \r\nDeveloped Countries (LDCs)). LLIC host around 11% of the global population (Neumann et al., 2015), and generate about \r\n14% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Kummu et al., 2016). This integrative Cross-Chapter Box focuses on the \r\narray of challenges created by the melting of the cryosphere and the changing ocean, described throughout the report, \r\nto address societal risks, adaptation and the future habitability of LLIC."


id: c3b3bf337db3700506437b7a5d8a0c2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Figure CB9.1 |  The global distribution of low-lying islands and coasts (LLIC) particularly at risk from sea level rise. This map considers the Low \r\nElevation Coastal Zone (elevation data from National Geophysical Data Center, 1999; LECZ, defined by McGranahan et al., 2007), islands with \r\na maximum elevation of 10 m above sea level (Weigelt et al., 2013), Small Island Developing States (SIDS; UN-OHRLLS, n.d.), coastal megacities (cities \r\nwith more than 10 million inhabitants, within 100 km from coast, and maximum 50 m above sea level; Pelling and Blackburn, 2013; UN-DESA, 2018) \r\nand deltas (Tessler et al., 2015). Regional sea level changes refer to projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 (2081-2100) \r\n(see Figure 4.8)."


id: da6259b9305bd2a95a2a118c13e8da6b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Table CB9.1 |  Summary information on the critical climate-related drivers for low-lying islands and coasts, their trends due to climate change, \r\nand their main physical and ecosystem effects. Based on SROCC chapters and IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5). MSL is mean sea level, RCP is \r\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway, TC is tropical cyclone, ETC is extratropical cyclone, SLR is sea level rise, SST is sea surface temperature."


id: 27736a605301cae9a260b9c346fc7be8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Anthropogenic drivers - Human factors play a major role in shaping exposure and vulnerability to climate-related changes \r\nin the Arctic, in temperate and tropical small islands, and in coastal urban areas (Sections 2.5.2, 4.3.2, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in \r\nChapter 1). In the absence of major additional adaptation efforts compared to today (i.e., neither further significant action \r\nnor new types of actions), the anthropogenic drivers' contribution to climate change related risk will substantially increase \r\n(high confidence) (Section 4.3.4.2). "


id: b62db2393cffe5b8e0946bf210f953fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Local factors drive - as well as are driven by - more regional processes such as extensive coastal urbanisation, human-induced \r\nsediment starvation (and implications on subsidence), degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, coral \r\nreefs and salt-marshes), lack of long-term integrated planning, changing consumption modes, conflicting resource use and \r\nsocioeconomic inequalities (high confidence), among others. These are vehicles of increasing exposure and vulnerability at \r\nmultiple scales. "


id: fe9f7f6df4bc00aa82fe0a7bc39d139a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42177
content:
"At a more local scale, and regardless of the size of the city, coastal property values and development will be affected by sea \r\nlevel changes, storms and other weather and climate-related hazards. Real estate values, and the cost and availability of \r\ninsurance, will be impacted by actual and perceived flood risks (McNamara and Keeler, 2013; Section 5.4.2.3.1; Putra et al., \r\n2015). Properties are also at risk of losing value due to coastal landscape degradation (McNamara and Keeler, 2013; Fu et al., \r\n2016) and increasing risk aversion. The economic consequences manifest in declining rental incomes, business activities and \r\nlocal employment (Rubin and Hilton, 1996)."


id: 4b677700e468d1ba7ab681f61842a279
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content:
"Coastal megacities are especially critical nodes for transboundary risks (Atteridge and Remling, 2018; Miller et al., 2018)\r\nas they contribute substantially to national economies and serve as a hub for global trade and transportation networks. \r\nThe 2011 floods in Bangkok, for example, not only resulted in direct losses of 46.5 billion USD (World Bank, 2012; Haraguchi \r\nand Lall, 2015), but also in important effects on supply chains across the globe (Abe and Ye, 2013). Urbanisation could, \r\nhowever, also provide opportunities for risk reduction, given that cities are centres of innovation, political attention and \r\nprivate sector investments (Garschagen and Romero-Lankao, 2015)."


id: 6a9076fc0a3e91b6e7e59b355e4ae94b
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content:
"Small islands - The extreme events occurring today, such as storms, tropical cyclones (TC), droughts, floods and marine \r\nheat waves (Herring et al., 2017), provide striking illustrations of the vulnerability of small island systems (high confidence) \r\n(Section 6.8.5, Box 4.2, Box 6.1). Societal dimensions can combine with climate changes, e.g., sea level rise, to amplify the "


id: 6a9e105476b7f7cbf8784286c50345a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 16041
content:
"projected to decline over the next 15 to 45 years, especially in the Southwest (Kabir et al., 2018). In the Ebro delta, Spain, \r\nGenua-Olmedo et al. (2016) anticipate a decrease of the rice production index from 61.2% in 2010 to 33.8% by 2100 for \r\na 1.8 m sea level rise scenario, far above the upper end of the RCP8.5 likely2 range (Section 4.2.3.2, Table 4.3). "


id: cca2b163bae031e483d09ad100663cec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33327
content:
"Risks to Arctic coasts will be reinforced by anthropogenic drivers originating in the recent decades of history (e.g., socioeconomic \r\nadjustments after government policies requiring children to attend school) which resulted in the construction of infrastructure\r\nin near-shore areas. While risk levels vary by village, in several cases infrastructure has been lost and subsistence use areas \r\nmodified (Gorokhovich et al., 2013; Marino, 2015). More broadly, in the Arctic, 'indigenous peoples (...) have been pushed \r\ninto marginalised territories that are more sensitive to climate impacts' (Ford et al., 2016: 350), with consequences in terms \r\nof undermining aspects of socio-cultural resilience."


id: 57c03842c61ff7bbe905553dd319ecb1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Impacts on critical sectors and livelihoods - Economic impacts for LLIC are expected to be significant in the course of \r\nthe century due to the convergence of the anticipated increase in the number of LECZ inhabitants (Jones and O'Neill, 2016; \r\nMerkens et al., 2016), the high dependency of societies on ocean and marine ecosystems and services (Section 5.4.1, 5.4.2), \r\nand increased detrimental effects of climate-related ocean and cryosphere changes on natural and human systems (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Hsiang et al., 2017; United Nations, 2017). However, the degree of impacts on the economy and \r\nrelated dimensions - for example, on employment, livelihood, poverty, health (Kim et al., 2014; Weatherdon et al., 2016), \r\nwell-being and food security (Sections 1.1 and 5.4.2, FAQ 1.2 in Chapter 1) and public budgets and investments - will vary \r\nacross context-specific physical settings and exposure and vulnerability levels."


id: 8bba486e12a5c69bf09469e7c8a25975
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"with Lam et al. (2016) estimating that the impacts on fisheries will be more important in SIDS, Africa and Southeast Asia. \r\nCascading effects are also expected from risks to coral reefs and associated living resources, both on direct consumption by \r\nlocal communities and through disturbances to the broader food web chains (Sections 5.4.2, 6.5 and Box 6.1)."


id: f4416b749b94938c0527aa9046739ed7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40343
content:
"Recent studies provide further empirical evidence that people are rarely moving exclusively due to changes in ocean- and \r\ncryosphere-based conditions, and that migration as a result of disasters and increasing hazards strongly interact with other \r\ndrivers, especially economic and political motivations (high confidence) (Kelman, 2015; Marino and Lazrus, 2015; Hamilton \r\net al., 2016; Bettini, 2017; Stojanov et al., 2017; Perumal, 2018). While significantly higher risks of human displacement are \r\nexpected in low-income LLIC, for example in Guatemala (Milan and Ruano, 2014) and Myanmar (Brakenridge et al., 2017), \r\nthe issue also concerns developed countries. For example, Logan et al. (2016) show that people temporarily or permanently \r\ndisplaced by hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, USA, create a significant economic burden to tourism-dependent coastal cities and \r\nharbours. "


id: 8874c2b4e36b138c05fc68cfebe1eb6f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21168
content:
"Ecosystem-based measures, if applied place specific and adequate - for example, use of indigenous rather than exotic species \r\n(e.g., Duvat et al., 2016) - , are usually considered low-regret in that they can stabilise the coastal vegetation and protect \r\nagainst coastal hazards, while at the same time enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Schoonees et al., 2019; Sections 2.3.3.4, 5.5.2, 6.9). "


id: 19e79c4db09cffa8ff6a14ec5b94958d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 1755
content:
"the Netherlands (Haasnoot et al., 2013), Indonesia (Butler et al., 2014), New York City (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2014) and \r\nSingapore (Buurman and Babovic, 2017). "


id: 9b360e0b4a7edd3c05e6b44c73318ccb
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content:
"In addition, LLIC provide relevant illustrations of some of the IPCC Reasons for Concern (RFC) that describe potentially dangerous \r\nanthropogenic interference with the climate system (IPCC, 2014; IPCC, 2018). LLIC especially illustrate the risks to unique \r\nand threatened systems (RFC1), and risks associated with extreme weather and compound events (RFC2), and the uneven \r\ndistribution of impacts (RFC3). Using this frame, O'Neill et al. (2017) estimate, for example, that the potential for coastal "


id: 57e2b369096efe4f8b0dd4f83907fbb6
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content:
"(c) 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. \r\nElectronic copies of this report are available from the IPCC website www.ipcc.ch"


id: d80d1c88d07afac1e9ab7233a001f494
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35310
content:
"IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on \r\nClimate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Pean, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. \r\nMatthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekci, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp.\r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009157896."


id: 2e2f87f9289731ae43b25c15a66a4cd9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5399
content:
"It is unequivocal that human activities have heated our climate. \r\nRecent changes are rapid, intensifying, and unprecedented over \r\ncenturies to thousands of years. With each additional increment of \r\nwarming, these changes will become larger, resulting in long-lasting, \r\nirreversible implications, in particular for sea level rise. United Nations \r\nSecretary-General Antonio Guterres has stated that 'the evidence is \r\nirrefutable' and 'we see the warning signs in every continent and region'."


id: e01b808c82aa6e30f01d6b9c9d5a3309
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The Working Group I contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel \r\non Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report provides a reality \r\ncheck on climate change. We now have a much clearer picture of \r\nthe past, present and possible future climates, and this information \r\nis essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be \r\ndone, and the multiple facets of a changing climate to prepare for, \r\nin every region. Unless deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions \r\noccur in the coming decades, global warming of 1.5degC and 2degC above \r\npre-industrial levels will be exceeded during the 21st century. "


id: 39e2f6c4ec87177473fb48785d751a11
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"This Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment \r\nReport covers important new advances in climate science that \r\nprovide an invaluable input into climate negotiations and decision\u0002making, with an emphasis on key conditions that, from a physical \r\nscience basis, are needed to limit global warming and inform risk \r\nassessment and regional adaptation. The report was welcomed at \r\nthe 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework \r\nConvention on Climate Change. It will also inform the 2023 global \r\nstocktake. Unless there are deep reductions in global greenhouse gas \r\nemissions, the goal of limiting warming well below 2degC and close to \r\n1.5degC will be out of reach."


id: 88c116482dcaf8480d3061d0eff646fc
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The new Working Group I Report structure integrates multiple lines \r\nof scientific evidence within each chapter and provides robust \r\nknowledge relevant for policymaking through the end-to-end \r\nassessment of key topics. This more holistic approach has resulted in \r\na report that provides a better understanding of the climate system, \r\nfor both past and future changes, with a new emphasis on climate \r\ninformation for regions, which is critical for informing adaptation and \r\nrisk management strategies. Today, many decisions remain grounded \r\nin the experience of past climate variability. This report provides \r\na solid basis for taking into account future changes that need to be \r\nconsidered in today's decisions, with increased relevance for climate \r\nservices, to enhance adaptation and resilience to climate change and \r\ncurb greenhouse gas emissions."


id: e77cc895ea471c0fa46e427760ca6128
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content:
"The science is unequivocal, the changes are unprecedented, and there \r\nis no more time for delay."


id: 57376acd125c80c3fae6d02529bfd9be
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"without being policy prescriptive and to facilitate the integration \r\nof the WGI key findings with the other AR6 Working Group reports."


id: fe94a63a40ccbb6eb7cbb4ea8b38bf3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Sixth Assessment \r\nReport (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change \r\n(IPCC) focuses on a full and comprehensive assessment of the physical \r\nscience basis of climate change, based on evidence from more than \r\n14,000 scientific publications available by 31 January 2021. "


id: 20f46ccb25c80c57ecd5dc619b7614ce
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"This Report consists of thirteen thematic chapters with their \r\nsupporting supplementary material, ten annexes (including the report \r\nGlossary, which is developed in coordination with Working Groups \r\nII and III where relevant), an integrative Technical Summary, and \r\na Summary for Policymakers. An innovation in this Working Group I \r\nassessment is the online Interactive Atlas (https://interactive-atlas.\r\nipcc.ch), a  novel tool for flexible spatial and temporal analyses of \r\nobserved and projected climate change information, which enhances \r\naccessibility for stakeholders and users to the data assessed in \r\nthe Report."


id: 39546ae712613bd3f4f3c409e803a93d
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"This Report reflects recent climate science advances resulting from \r\nprogress in, and the integration of, multiple lines of evidence, \r\nincluding: in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; \r\nunderstanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical and biological \r\nprocesses and feedbacks; and global and regional climate modelling; \r\nas well as advances in methods of analyses and insights from the \r\ngrowing field of climate services."


id: e77b6b9ad87b2524d73362166fd365a2
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"The AR6 WGI Report builds on the WGI contribution to the IPCC's \r\nFifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013, and the AR6 Special Reports1\r\nreleased in 2018 and 2019."


id: c93ce5469536d0a5714304c1cf9924f3
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"The Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary include the line \r\nof sight, indicated in curly brackets, to the chapters and the specific \r\nsections therein where the detailed assessment can be found. In this \r\nway, these summary components of the Report provide a roadmap to \r\nthe contents of the entire report and a synthesis of the major findings \r\nthat is traceable to the underlying literature and assessment."


id: 4190b93d92067848a86b77548f81400
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"The report considers the current state of the climate in the long-term \r\ncontext, the understanding of human influence, the state of knowledge \r\nabout possible climate futures, climate information relevant for \r\nclimate-related risk assessment and regional adaptation, and the \r\nphysical science basis on limiting human-induced climate change."


id: 104260c095803135f59a8b474ba82944
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"As part of the scoping process and approval of the outline of the IPCC \r\nSixth Assessment Report, the WGI contribution evolved from the \r\nstructure of past WGI assessment reports, reflecting developments \r\nin climate science and the assessment of global and regional climate \r\ninformation that is relevant to inform decision-making. "


id: f18ef919dd02984c6f0031319378d43b
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"Some key new topics assessed by WGI include the global response \r\nto new illustrative emissions scenarios, physical climate storylines, \r\nlow-likelihood, high-impact outcomes, and physical climate \r\nconditions that affect society and/or ecosystems (defined as climatic \r\nimpact-drivers). "


id: 7f7bba07fcf79cd27992ad5a3b81ae83
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"The integration of multiple lines of evidence strengthens \r\nthe  understanding of past, current and possible future changes \r\nin the climate system and the distillation of regional climate change \r\ninformation at regional scale. The new structure of the WGI Report is \r\ndesigned to facilitate this integration for end-to-end assessment of \r\nkey topics and to enhance the visibility of knowledge developments \r\nfor global and regional climate change. This includes climate \r\ninformation that is relevant for risk assessment, regional adaptation \r\nand for mitigation. It is also designed to inform decision-making "


id: 48d29830de4e9daa9b0ade50ed0d0627
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"The second segment of the report is dedicated to climate system \r\ncomponents and processes that play key roles in global and regional \r\nclimate (Chapters 5-9), including carbon and other biogeochemical \r\ncycles, energy, and water; short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and \r\ntheir link to air quality; and changes in the ocean, cryosphere \r\nand sea level. Chapter 5 addresses the assessment of the global \r\nbiogeochemical budgets for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous "


id: 391549660989c3fcdc7b2e8aa67dce7a
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"technical aspects of the assessment, such as descriptions of datasets, \r\nmodels or methodologies supporting chapter analyses."


id: ea5520240817382111ad87a5047bfa11
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"This WGI Assessment Report represents the combined efforts of \r\nhundreds of leading experts in the field of climate science and has \r\nbeen prepared in accordance with principles and procedures of \r\nthe IPCC. "


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"A scoping meeting for the Sixth Assessment Report was held in May \r\n2017, and the outlines for the contributions of the three Working \r\nGroups were approved at the 46th Session of the Panel in September \r\n2017. Governments and IPCC observer organizations nominated \r\nexperts for the author team. The team of 198 Coordinating Lead \r\nAuthors and Lead Authors plus 36 Review Editors selected by the \r\nWGI Bureau was accepted at the 55th Session of the IPCC Bureau \r\nin January 2018. During the report preparation, a few changes have \r\ntaken place to address core expertise gaps and to replace authors \r\nwho were not available anymore. In addition, 615  Contributing \r\nAuthors provided information to the author teams at their request."


id: 6ab1ee4bb50d4638359b4e44402f1d27
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"Drafts prepared by the authors were subject to two rounds of \r\nformal review and revision followed by a final round of government \r\ncomments on the Summary for Policymakers. A total of 78,007 \r\nwritten review comments were submitted by 1891 individual expert \r\nreviewers and 47 governments. The Review Editors for each chapter \r\nmonitored the review process to ensure that all review comments \r\nreceived appropriate consideration. All review comments and \r\nresponses are available online on the report website. "


id: 684217220f2b30f1e8308af66434369e
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"Three in-person Lead Author Meetings took place to enhance progress \r\nand coordination in the assessment process. These were particularly \r\ncritical for the intense cross-chapter coordination implied by the new \r\nreport outline."


id: 902a30ea372b291d21a8f9e93a26366a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"The Interactive Atlas allows flexible spatial and temporal analyses \r\nof climate variables, extreme indices and climatic impact-drivers, \r\nincluding datasets underpinning assessment findings across report \r\nchapters and syntheses of regional changes."


id: 940460cae21420790792adfdb50ca453
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"We strived to foster an inclusive environment that achieves a rigorous \r\nand transparent assessment process. These efforts included greater \r\nattention to addressing implicit biases and technical considerations \r\nto enhance the participation in the process and increasing the \r\naccessibility of the assessed information."


id: 5040757c0c02076eb2d1115076a6595a
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"Specific regional case studies are considered in different chapters, \r\nincluding rainfall changes in the Sahel and Western Africa, \r\nSouth-Western North America, and South-Eastern South America; \r\nclimate information relevant for water resources in small islands, \r\nfor Cape Town drought, for the Indian summer monsoon, for \r\nMediterranean summer warming, and for the Hindu Kush Himalaya \r\nregion; urban climate processes and trends; and the influence of the \r\nArctic on mid-latitude climate."


id: 862fd76014d6f7627aa30a5f896408e6
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"For the first time in the IPCC, WGI recommended the implementation \r\nof FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) data principles \r\nin the assessment to document and curate the data assessed and \r\nincluded in report figures. The motivation was to increase transparency \r\nand accessibility of the assessment, support implementation of the \r\nIPCC Error Protocol, and provide for the long-term curation of \r\nthe assessed digital information. This process was supported by our \r\nclose collaboration with the IPCC Task Group on Data Support for \r\nClimate Change Assessments (TG-Data) established in March 2018."


id: b1c4ac2ead66b33b675bd782f3ec8c3a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"All chapters contain Frequently Asked Questions, which are grounded \r\nin the assessment and written in language that is more accessible \r\nto a broad readership and can serve as a resource for teaching \r\nand outreach. "


id: 90d9788f0b567115143a4d898f8f013f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 22690
content:
"The COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the World Health \r\nOrganization at the start the Second Order Draft review. Following \r\nan extensive consultation process with IPCC member countries, \r\nauthors and the scientific community, including editors of relevant "


id: 9c03a38feb9f47f968c2ed360444645a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"science journals, the timeline of the report was extended by four \r\nmonths to balance the delays and challenges faced by authors \r\nand the scientific community with maintaining momentum and \r\ntimeliness in the assessment process. The review process is critical \r\nfor the rigor, objectivity and comprehensiveness of the assessment. \r\nThe adjustments to the timeline facilitated broad participation from \r\nscientists and governments in the review process. Stringent scientific \r\nrigor and quality of the assessment were maintained despite \r\nthe pandemic."


id: f95372976ec2f516641789309dff993c
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
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content:
"The Summary for Policymakers was approved line-by-line during the \r\nfirst-ever virtual IPCC approval session, the 14th Session of IPCC \r\nWorking Group I from 26 July - 06 August 2021, and the underlying \r\nReport was accepted during the 54th Session of the IPCC on the \r\n6th August 2021."


id: c1310409f16dad040f08d7db0058ed5f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
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content:
"We are very grateful for the exceptional rigor and dedication of the \r\nvolunteer Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors throughout \r\nthis process, who delivered the most comprehensive assessment \r\never of our physical understanding of climate change. We thank the \r\nReview Editors for working alongside the author teams to ensure \r\nthat the chapters are fully reflective of the input provided through \r\nthe review process. We express our sincere appreciation to all the \r\ngovernment and expert reviewers, including several group reviews \r\nfrom early-career scientists. We thank the many Contributing Authors \r\nwho provided input and important support to the authors."


id: 4fe78b66dd9ea490dcf7ad3290061851
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
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vector_id: 11350
content:
"The fourth Lead Author Meeting, due to be held in June 2020, \r\nwas replaced by extensive virtual activities to address the Second \r\nOrder Draft review comments and topics that cut across multiple \r\nchapters. A final virtual Lead Author Meeting was held in February \r\n2021 to finalize the report. Drafting meetings for the Summary for \r\nPolicymakers also took place through virtual meetings."


id: 8138b07f9e5343dcb8abb5e1f8ae2aa2
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Addressing the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the \r\nassessment process required innovation to facilitate international \r\nvirtual collaboration, including extra support and training for \r\nparticipants and facilitators, support for participants with internet \r\nconnectivity challenges, additional advance preparation, shorter \r\nand more focused meetings with clear agendas and objectives and \r\nduplicated to account for time zones of participants, high levels \r\nof transparency - including the provision of written summaries \r\nof meetings and decisions, and allotting time for asynchronous \r\ncontributions to the discussion and decision-making process. "


id: f7789be1c41abb30a102a3a904a4164a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"A special thanks goes to the Chapter Scientists of this report who \r\nwent above and beyond what was expected of them: Kari Alterskjaer, \r\nLisa Bock, Katherine Dooley, Gregory Garner, Mathias Hauser, Tim \r\nHermans, Lijuan Hua, Carley Iles, Maialen Iturbide, Laurice Preciado \r\nJamero, Martin Jury, Megan Kirchmeier Young, Chaincy Kuo, Hui-Wen \r\nLai, Alice Lebehot, Elizaveta Malinina Rieger, Sebastian Milinkski, \r\nTherese Myslinski, Tamzin Palmer, Browdie Pearson, Stephane Senesi, \r\nJerome Servonnat, Chris Smith, David Smyth, Sabin Thazhe Purayil, \r\nEmilie Vanvyve, Tania Villasenor Jorquera, Hui Wan and Kyung\u0002Sook Yu. Chapter scientists were recruited by and reported directly \r\nto the Coordinating Lead Author(s) and provided technical support \r\nto the chapters, including reference checking and compilation, \r\nfigure drafting, traceability checking, identification of overlaps or \r\ninconsistencies across chapters, and technical editing."


id: bbff9bc433509cece9c0c375d8a9af1b
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Documenting and understanding barriers to participation due to \r\nan increased reliance on online activities and the use of inclusive \r\npractices required priority attention in these novel conditions. We \r\ngained experience in applying methods to facilitate participatory and \r\ninclusive processes in the assessment and recognized the necessity \r\nof fostering these approaches over the course of the assessment \r\nprocess, both during and in-between meetings, to build a stronger \r\ncommunity of practice within this unique international context. This \r\nwill be an important legacy for future assessment cycles."


id: cf5bc5bfa7d77c96e510b3ce20c67551
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"We thank the Vice Chairs of the WGI Bureau for their dedication, \r\nguidance and wisdom throughout the preparation of the Report and \r\ntheir support for cross-Working Group coordination: Edvin Aldrian, \r\nFatima Driouech, Gregory Flato, Jan Fuglestvedt, Muhammad I. Tariq, \r\nCarolina Vera and Noureddine Yassaa."


id: a9db3e312808a3bcf765158801fdb711
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
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vector_id: 27107
content:
"We gratefully acknowledge the support from the host countries \r\nand institutions of the WGI Lead Author Meetings (LAMs): China \r\nMeteorological Administration (CMA), China, for hosting the first \r\nLAM; Environment Canada, Canada, for hosting the second LAM; and \r\nMeteo France, France, for hosting the third LAM. We also thank the \r\nMinisterio de Ciencia, Tecnologia, Conocimiento e Innovacion and \r\nthe Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Chile, for offering to host the \r\nfourth LAM meeting that we were unable to hold in person due to \r\nthe COVID-19 pandemic."


id: 6bf54dd7a03d7e1106d068a78efa5804
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"The support provided by governments and institutions, as well \r\nas through contributions to the IPCC Trust Fund, is thankfully \r\nacknowledged as it enabled the participation of the author \r\nteams in the preparation of the Report. The efficient operation of \r\nthe  WGI Technical Support Unit (TSU) was made possible by the \r\ngenerous financial support provided by the government of France "


id: be7b2a569554cea932887d1ef8ebe5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Lynn, Judith Ewa, Mxolisi Shongwe, Jennifer Lew Schneider, Jesbin \r\nBaidya, Werani Zabula, Nina Peeva, Melissa Walsh, Joelle Fernandez, \r\nLaura Biagioni and Oksana Ekzarkho for their guidance and support \r\nto implement the many facets of the IPCC process. We were grateful \r\nthat we could work together extensively on communication activities. \r\nWe thank Sue Escott for her tireless work to strengthen how we \r\ncommunicate the outcomes of the assessment. "


id: a698aa00e82ee5122044bd84ab076a95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 26524
content:
"and administrative and information technology support from the \r\nUniversite Paris Saclay (France), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) \r\nand the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement \r\n(LSCE). We thank the Norwegian Environment Agency for supporting \r\nthe preparation of the graphics for the Summary for Policymakers. \r\nWe thank the United Nations Environment Programme Library for \r\nproviding a service for authors to access literature. "


id: 901159772c2be460a587b2b3f81dc7f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"We would like to acknowledge the support of the SHIFT Collaborative \r\nteam - Stacy Barter and Michelle Colussi - and the generous \r\nsupport of the Canadian government for training and tools on \r\ninclusive practices in a consensus-based decision-making context, \r\nwhich we have been able to use for a more inclusive assessment \r\nprocess, including when we moved to purely online approaches. We \r\nappreciated the presence of Jessica O'Reilly and Mark Vardy, who \r\nhave been with us throughout, working on an ethnographic study of \r\nhow authors undertake the IPCC assessment, and we look forward to \r\nthe insights from their research."


id: 2036c592999dc65b48ca81893467a15c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2880
content:
"The approval of the WGI Summary for Policymakers took place in \r\nan unprecedented context, with travel restrictions caused by the \r\nCOVID-19 pandemic rendering an in-person IPCC Plenary session \r\nimpossible. We thank the support and advice of the IPCC Executive \r\nCommittee and the tireless work of the ad-hoc task group that was \r\nestablished to advise us as Co-Chairs in preparing for the approval \r\nsession. The task group was led by IPCC Vice-Chair Ko Barrett and \r\nincluded WGI Vice-Chairs Fatima Driouech, Greg Flato and Edvin \r\nAldrian; Anna Pirani and Sarah Connors of the WGI TSU; and Ermira \r\nFida of the IPCC Secretariat. The task group prepared guidance for \r\nparticipants on the modalities of the session and a carefully structured \r\nmeeting schedule to implement a virtual approval process."


id: b1cb573421373c7ebc9ce29effd8e9af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28498
content:
"A core outcome of the report has been the development of the WGI \r\nInteractive Atlas produced by the Atlas chapter team. The Atlas is \r\ndedicated to the memory of Gemma Teresa Narisma, who co-led this \r\ninnovative chapter with her extensive experience in regional climate \r\nresearch and outstanding leadership. The development and technical \r\nimplementation have been supported with in-kind contribution \r\nfrom the Spanish government through the Spanish Research \r\nCouncil (CSIC) Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, in partnership with \r\nPredictia Intelligent Data Solutions. Funding from the Spanish \r\nResearch &  Development program is acknowledged (ref. PID2019-\r\n111481RB-I00). We thank the modelling centres and institutions \r\nthat produce and make available the datasets used in this work. The \r\nInteractive Atlas was first made available along with the rest of the \r\nReport on 9 August 2021 and was visited by more than half a million \r\nusers worldwide during the first month."


id: b9d204a00cb5d00fe80bb80046dc5c28
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The approval took place virtually for the first time and involved more \r\nthan 186 hours of online meetings. We thank all participants for the \r\nremarkable collaborative spirit and rigorous work undertaken during \r\nthe session. IPCC Vice Chairs Ko Barrett, Thelma Krug and Youba \r\nSokona brought their unwavering support to facilitate discussions \r\namongst authors and delegations and provided core support for the \r\nsuccess of the approval process. We are also grateful to the Vice Chairs \r\nof WGI, as well as Mark Howden and Andy Reisinger, Vice Chairs of \r\nWGII and WGIII respectively, and Jim Skea, Co-Chair of WGIII, for \r\ntheir support to facilitate the discussions. The WGI TSU was joined \r\nby members of the WGII and WGIII TSUs, as well as past interns and \r\nchapter scientists to staff this Herculean coordination effort."


id: efb02f9b30253c4e388567f8923d446b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39548
content:
"Our warmest thanks go to the collegial and collaborative support \r\nprovided by Melinda Tignor, Elvira Poloczanska, Katja Mintenbeck, \r\nBard Rama, Almut Niebuhr, Vincent Moller, Sina Loschke, Komila \r\nNabiyeva, Andres Alegria, Stefanie Langsdorf, Andrew Okem, \r\nMarlies Craig, Anka Muhle, Philisiwe Manqele, Stefan Weisfeld, \r\nJussi Savolainen and Mallou from the Working Group II Technical \r\nSupport Unit; Roger Fradera, Raphael Slade, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Minal \r\nPathak, Sigourney Luz, Malek Belkacemi, David McCollum, Renee van \r\nDiemen, Shreya Some, Purvi Vyas, Juliette Malley and Geninha Lisboa \r\nfrom the Working Group III Technical Support Unit; and Noemie \r\nLe Prince-Ringuet from the Synthesis Report Technical Support Unit. "


id: df57867d84bbb4d97a97514c8a026824
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36538
content:
"The WGI TSU has initiated the process to archive the data and \r\ncode from the report, building on the guidance and support from \r\na large group of contributors. We are indebted to the members \r\nof the IPCC Task Group on Data Support for Climate Change \r\nAssessments (TG-Data) for their oversight, expert guidance and \r\nconstant encouragement, including the Co-chairs of the Task Group, \r\nDavid Huard and Sebastian Vicuna, and members representing the \r\nWGI science community, Michio Kawamiya, Silvina Solman, Jose \r\nManuel Guttierez and Nana Ama Browne Klutse. For the preparation \r\nof the figure data and code for archival, we especially thank to our \r\ndedicated contractor, Lina Sitz."


id: c5de32a169e74d98adf06267ce134ca6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32120
content:
"We are grateful for the close collaboration with authors and Bureau \r\nmembers from Working Group II and III, including as contributing \r\nauthors in many parts of the report. We thank the Co-Chairs Debra \r\nRoberts, Hans-Otto Portner, Jim Skea and Priyadarshi R. Shukla for \r\nthe collegial teamwork across Working Groups that has characterized \r\nthe AR6. We also thank Eduardo Calvo Buendia and Kyoto Tanabe, \r\nCo-Chairs of the Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Inventories, for their \r\nsupport and collaboration. "


id: d19c667e72554e4bb2bd041144cd1be6
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34228
content:
"The IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC) has been indispensable \r\nfor this effort. For the archival of figure data, we are indebted to \r\nCharlotte Pascoe, Kate Winfield, and Martin Jukes from the UK \r\nCentre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA). For the archival of \r\nthe climate model data used as input to the report and intermediate \r\nassessed datasets, we gratefully acknowledge Martina Stockhause \r\nof the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). For the transfer \r\nof metadata on archived data/code into the IPCC data catalogue, we \r\nthank MetadataWorks. Finally, we gratefully acknowledge funding "


id: 7c27629ba6f19e6fdfb323abe8f30ca2
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"We thank our past WGI TSU team members: Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, \r\nRoz Pidcock, and Rodrigro Manzanas. We also thank the contributions \r\nof Margot Eyraud, Evea Piedagnel, Mathilde Mousson and Felix \r\nChavelli, who joined the TSU as interns."


id: f90f9fd68824d2ded2d009a40341409e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"support from the Governments of the United Kingdom and Germany, \r\nwithout which data archival at the DDC would not have been possible."


id: 9c14a2180e4b048f8a5bae9a66efd886
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24711
content:
"A special thanks goes to the visual design team of the Summary \r\nfor Policymakers: Tom Johansen and Angela Morelli of Information \r\nDesign Lab and Jordan Harold and Irene Lorenzoni of the Tyndall \r\nCentre for Climate Change Research, as well as to Nigel Hawtin for \r\ngraphical design support of the Report. We would like to thank Alisa \r\nSinger for creating the \"Changing\" artwork inspired by one of the \r\nscientific figures for the front cover of the Report."


id: 68bfdfd4de967039c68ecd914a438a94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15696
content:
"We wish to express our sincere recognition to all those who \r\ncontributed to the WGI assessment given the implications of \r\nundertaking this during the COVID-19 pandemic, all of whom have \r\nworked from home under such challenging conditions. "


id: 2036dc8d3ce676aa125b107f98616121
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2882
content:
"Finally, on behalf of all the participants to this unprecedented \r\nexperience, we would like to thank colleagues, friends, and \r\nfamilies who have also been part of this intense journey for their \r\nunderstanding and support."


id: 28885aaa9c9dfd1352cd8887811ccfa4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4340
content:
"Our particular appreciation goes to the WGI TSU, whose tireless \r\ndedication, professionalism and enthusiasm underpinned the \r\nproduction of this Report. The Report could not have been prepared \r\nwithout the commitment of members of the TSU, all new to the IPCC, \r\nwho rose to the unprecedented Sixth Assessment Report challenge \r\nand were pivotal in all aspects of the preparation of the Report: Anna \r\nPirani, Clotilde Pean, Sarah Connors, Yang Chen, Robin Matthews, \r\nMelissa Gomis, Sophie Berger, Leah Goldfarb, Rong Yu, Baiquan Zhou, \r\nOzge Yelekci, Nada Caud, Katherine Leitzell, Tom Maycock, Mengtian \r\nHuang, Elisabeth Lonnoy, Tim Waterfield and Diego Cammarano. "


id: 9ab44b207692b5bf057482f7771cb329
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24460
content:
"This report shows that how much climate change we experience in \r\nthe future depends on our decisions now, and what to prepare for. \r\nWe wish that this report is widely used to provide evidence-based \r\nknowledge to inform decision-making, for teaching and training, and \r\nto enhance climate literacy worldwide."


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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16134
content:
"The Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate \r\nChange 2021: The Physical Science Basis is dedicated to the memory of Sir John Hougthon, who was one of the key figures in the \r\ncreation of the IPCC in 1988, and served as Chair and Co-Chair of Working Group I for the IPCC's first three assessment reports from \r\n1988 to 2002."


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content:
"Sir John's work was a major factor in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC in 2007, shared with former U.S. Vice-President \r\nAl Gore. He contributed to the development of climate science and building international cooperation based upon climate research. \r\nSir John played a key role in ensuring a robust science-policy interface, used in the IPCC process, but his role in international scientific \r\nresearch extended beyond the IPCC, for instance in contributing to the establishment of the World Climate Research Programme, \r\nwhich he chaired from 1982 to 1984."


id: 8bf0f2c438abef768ae5639cc0bf196c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21788
content:
"Sir John was a brilliant communicator among scientific colleagues, policymakers and the public at large, explaining the fact and threat \r\nof climate change with clarity and directness."


id: b053c591b03df094781fce95cc4ad2e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28258
content:
"IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I \r\nto the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. \r\nConnors, C. Pean, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. \r\nMaycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekci, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New \r\nYork, NY, USA, pp. 3-32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001."


id: 352acbf5ae54cf411908e558d121f273
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6599
content:
"This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents key findings of the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)1 on the physical science basis of climate change. The report builds \r\nupon the 2013 Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the 2018-2019 IPCC Special Reports2\r\nof the AR6 cycle and incorporates subsequent new evidence from climate science.3"


id: e54d5c54677bd155525d2adcb1a7479e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37643
content:
"This SPM provides a high-level summary of the understanding of the current state of the climate, including how it is changing and the \r\nrole of human influence, the state of knowledge about possible climate futures, climate information relevant to regions and sectors, \r\nand limiting human-induced climate change."


id: a44cab283b811863559453694885622d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26104
content:
"Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of \r\nconfidence indicated using the IPCC calibrated language.4"


id: 52632f7989820d32aa2e707ece3ae341
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11774
content:
"The scientific basis for each key finding is found in chapter sections of the main Report and in the integrated synthesis presented \r\nin the Technical Summary (hereafter TS), and is indicated in curly brackets. The AR6 WGI Interactive Atlas facilitates exploration of \r\nthese key synthesis findings, and supporting climate change information, across the WGI reference regions.5"


id: e26ce3645c443d965867708c4f469034
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37132
content:
"Since AR5, improvements in observationally based estimates and information from paleoclimate archives provide a comprehensive \r\nview of each component of the climate system and its changes to date. New climate model simulations, new analyses, and methods \r\ncombining multiple lines of evidence lead to improved understanding of human influence on a wider range of climate variables, \r\nincluding weather and climate extremes. The time periods considered throughout this section depend upon the availability of \r\nobservational products, paleoclimate archives and peer-reviewed studies."


id: e6c95f5544ff6576b90294003480ea06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37896
content:
"{2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 5.2, 5.3, 6.4, 7.3, 8.3, 9.2, 9.3, 9.5, 9.6, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 9.1} (Figure SPM.1, Figure SPM.2)"


id: 24b2372712b58cd810cc40175c708d00
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3653
content:
"Panel (a) Changes in global surface temperature reconstructed from paleoclimate archives (solid grey line, years 1-2000) and from direct \r\nobservations (solid black line, 1850-2020), both relative to 1850-1900 and decadally averaged. The vertical bar on the left shows the estimated temperature \r\n(very likely range) during the warmest multi-century period in at least the last 100,000 years, which occurred around 6500 years ago during the current interglacial \r\nperiod (Holocene). The Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, is the next most recent candidate for a period of higher temperature. These past warm periods \r\nwere caused by slow (multi-millennial) orbital variations. The grey shading with white diagonal lines shows the very likely ranges for the temperature reconstructions."


id: 3b09a1a80352042c8e27ab7792dd4281
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7577
content:
"Panel (b) Changes in global surface temperature over the past 170 years (black line) relative to 1850-1900 and annually averaged, compared to \r\nCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations (see Box SPM.1) of the temperature response to both human and natural \r\ndrivers (brown) and to only natural drivers (solar and volcanic activity, green). Solid coloured lines show the multi-model average, and coloured shades show the \r\nvery likely range of simulations. (See Figure SPM.2 for the assessed contributions to warming). "


id: 7bf84dc6960ae077cc8b86749bf44c9c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19020
content:
"Panel (a) For hot extremes, the evidence is mostly drawn from changes in metrics based on daily maximum temperatures; regional studies using other indices \r\n(heatwave duration, frequency and intensity) are used in addition. Red hexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed increase \r\nin hot extremes."


id: 814942ac57a029a5361d9de976452ff1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19879
content:
"Panel (b) For heavy precipitation, the evidence is mostly drawn from changes in indices based on one-day or five-day precipitation amounts using global and \r\nregional studies. Green hexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed increase in heavy precipitation."


id: 844968703cbff172559dc6d7b80817f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20426
content:
"Panel (c) Agricultural and ecological droughts are assessed based on observed and simulated changes in total column soil moisture, complemented \r\nby evidence on changes in surface soil moisture, water balance (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) and indices driven by precipitation and atmospheric \r\nevaporative demand. Yellow hexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed increase in this type of drought, and green \r\nhexagons indicate regions where there is at least medium confidence in an observed decrease in agricultural and ecological drought.\r\nFor all regions, Table TS.5 shows a broader range of observed changes besides the ones shown in this figure. Note that Southern South America (SSA) is the only \r\nregion that does not display observed changes in the metrics shown in this figure, but is affected by observed increases in mean temperature, decreases in frost \r\nand increases in marine heatwaves."


id: fc8e01c90de1afc99fc109280a04331a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41799
content:
"A set of five new illustrative emissions scenarios is considered consistently across this Report to explore the climate response to \r\na broader range of greenhouse gas (GHG), land-use and air pollutant futures than assessed in AR5. This set of scenarios drives \r\nclimate model projections of changes in the climate system. These projections account for solar activity and background forcing \r\nfrom volcanoes. Results over the 21st century are provided for the near term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long term \r\n(2081-2100) relative to 1850-1900, unless otherwise stated."


id: 1d6390f953123c75065c7eb8eb1d08ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2354
content:
"{1.5, Cross-Chapter Box 2.2, 3.3, 3.8, TS.1.2, Cross-Section Box TS.1} (Figure SPM.1b, Figure SPM.2)"


id: d21183686144b63d2d320b4e8cc18ba4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34314
content:
"Box SPM.1.3: The CMIP6 models considered in this Report have a wider range of climate sensitivity than in CMIP5 models \r\nand the AR6 assessed very likely range, which is based on multiple lines of evidence. These CMIP6 models also show \r\na higher average climate sensitivity than CMIP5 and the AR6 assessed best estimate. The higher CMIP6 climate sensitivity \r\nvalues compared to CMIP5 can be traced to an amplifying cloud feedback that is larger in CMIP6 by about 20%. \r\n{Box 7.1, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5, TS.3.2}"


id: 9f38c4dd1ccfc8bbba30000cf47b7204
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25234
content:
"Box SPM.1.4: For the first time in an IPCC report, assessed future changes in global surface temperature, ocean warming \r\nand sea level are constructed by combining multi-model projections with observational constraints based on past simulated \r\nwarming, as well as the AR6 assessment of climate sensitivity. For other quantities, such robust methods do not yet exist \r\nto constrain the projections. Nevertheless, robust projected geographical patterns of many variables can be identified at \r\na given level of global warming, common to all scenarios considered and independent of timing when the global warming \r\nlevel is reached. \r\n{1.6, 4.3, 4.6, Box 4.1, 7.5, 9.2, 9.6, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Section Box TS.1}"


id: 411f7aa593c56f67f832bff887044ae1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8639
content:
"Figure SPM.4 | Future anthropogenic emissions of key drivers of climate change and warming contributions by groups of drivers for \r\nthe five illustrative scenarios used in this report"


id: 8eff44425b1e5596cfdbd5b791bf2d3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22353
content:
"Panel (a) Annual anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions over the 2015-2100 period. Shown are emissions trajectories for carbon dioxide \r\n(CO2) from all sectors (GtCO2/yr) (left graph) and for a subset of three key non-CO2 drivers considered in the scenarios: methane (CH4, MtCH4/yr, top-right \r\ngraph); nitrous oxide (N2O, MtN2O/yr, middle-right graph); and sulphur dioxide (SO2, MtSO2/yr, bottom-right graph, contributing to anthropogenic aerosols \r\nin panel (b)."


id: 5fdde11ac4cef6cb013fad6ed61912a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14175
content:
"{2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.4, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5} (Figure SPM.1, Figure SPM.4, Figure SPM.8, \r\nTable SPM.1, Box SPM.1)"


id: b8ef2b4b0e8d87edd0bc8c0896d68add
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29744
content:
"Table SPM.1 | Changes in global surface temperature, which are assessed based on multiple lines of evidence, for selected 20-year time \r\nperiods and the five illustrative emissions scenarios considered. Temperature differences relative to the average global surface temperature of the \r\nperiod 1850-1900 are reported in degC. This includes the revised assessment of observed historical warming for the AR5 reference period 1986-2005, which \r\nin AR6 is higher by 0.08 [-0.01 to +0.12] degC than in AR5 (see footnote 10). Changes relative to the recent reference period 1995-2014 may be calculated \r\napproximately by subtracting 0.85degC, the best estimate of the observed warming from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014. \r\n{Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 4.3, 4.4, Cross-Section Box TS.1}"


id: ccf315bb7c854a7092374859a79be056
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33400
content:
"{4.3, 4.5, 4.6, 7.4, 8.2, 8.4, Box 8.2, 9.3, 9.5, Box 9.2, 11.1, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.7, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box \r\n11.1, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11} \r\n(Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6, Figure SPM.8)"


id: 488f7d51f5a97248cff3354979d1fbd8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9980
content:
"{2.3, 4.3, 4.5, 4.6, 7.4, 11.1, 11.3, 11.9, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, \r\nAtlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Section Box TS.1, TS.2.6} (Figure SPM.5)"


id: 9e88aaef8fd476c98c0e6f18d489ed0d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25117
content:
"{8.2, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, TS.2.6} (Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6)"


id: ce34e1e7894e4ce98ca21824fb605c6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33610
content:
"31 Monthly average sea ice area of less than 1 million km2, which is about 15% of the average September sea ice area observed in 1979-1988."


id: 1520199c8824bb0b68b11680e7a78cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 931
content:
"{4.3, 4.5, 7.4, 8.2, 8.4, Box 8.2, 9.3, 9.5, 12.4, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.11, TS.2.5} \r\n(Figure SPM.8)"


id: 152dea18ac8aac9eb4e2c45d8f948bb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 940
content:
"Warming at 1degC affects all continents and \r\nis generally larger over land than over the \r\noceans in both observations and models. \r\nAcross most regions, observed and \r\nsimulated patterns are consistent."


id: 6b818b3289a5cf1801b58065b052e25b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16219
content:
"Precipitation is projected to increase over high latitudes, the equatorial \r\nPacific and parts of the monsoon regions, but decrease over parts of the \r\nsubtropics and in limited areas of the tropics."


id: 20ff88350a7f0754ae6a482a91d7bf43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3027
content:
"Panel (b) Simulated annual mean temperature change (degC), panel (c) precipitation change (%), and panel (d) total column soil moisture change \r\n(standard deviation of interannual variability) at global warming levels of 1.5degC, 2degC and 4degC (20-year mean global surface temperature change relative \r\nto 1850-1900). Simulated changes correspond to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model mean change (median change for soil \r\nmoisture) at the corresponding global warming level, that is, the same method as for the right map in panel (a). "


id: 67a4c763cbb872f986c8e744f41f28b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15501
content:
"{Figure 1.14, 4.6.1, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.1, TS.1.3.2, Figures TS.3 and TS.5}"


id: 570073a37ba3ff34459b5d38c2e79f2c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12556
content:
"Projected changes are shown at global warming levels of 1degC, 1.5degC, 2degC, and 4degC and are relative to 1850-1900,9 representing a climate without human \r\ninfluence. The figure depicts frequencies and increases in intensity of 10- or 50-year extreme events from the base period (1850-1900) under different global \r\nwarming levels."


id: 2e4fda990c080c8d1c996eb7bce89508
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5422
content:
"Hot temperature extremes are defined as the daily maximum temperatures over land that were exceeded on average once in a decade (10-year event) or once \r\nin 50 years (50-year event) during the 1850-1900 reference period. Extreme precipitation events are defined as the daily precipitation amount over land that "


id: 77bf14f46b47557695174c8994bf04e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18275
content:
"{4.3, 4.5, 4.6, 8.2, 8.4, 8.5, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, 12.4, TS.2.6, TS.4.2, Box TS.6} (Figure SPM.5, Figure SPM.6)"


id: bd3c3c4473415d655ffd02060e92870e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30543
content:
"32 These projected adjustments of carbon sinks to stabilization or decline of atmospheric CO2 are accounted for in calculations of remaining carbon budgets."


id: eef6dcd8c35489a2a98eddf2eb39b9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39411
content:
"Figure SPM.7 | Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions taken up by land and ocean sinks by 2100 under the five illustrative scenarios\r\nThe cumulative anthropogenic (human-caused) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions taken up by the land and ocean sinks under the five illustrative scenarios (SSP1-1.9, \r\nSSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are simulated from 1850 to 2100 by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models in the \r\nconcentration-driven simulations. Land and ocean carbon sinks respond to past, current and future emissions; therefore, cumulative sinks from 1850 to 2100 are \r\npresented here. During the historical period (1850-2019) the observed land and ocean sink took up 1430 GtCO2 (59% of the emissions)."


id: b701bb2d38cd1eaa86c9fc3446937ce4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29409
content:
"Figure SPM.8 | Selected indicators of global climate change under the five illustrative scenarios used in this Report\r\nThe projections for each of the five scenarios are shown in colour. Shades represent uncertainty ranges - more detail is provided for each panel below. The black \r\ncurves represent the historical simulations (panels a, b, c) or the observations (panel d). Historical values are included in all graphs to provide context for the \r\nprojected future changes. "


id: dba20287a0ddd25b160cf33be496b78b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35931
content:
"Panel (a) Global surface temperature changes in degC relative to 1850-1900. These changes were obtained by combining Coupled Model Intercomparison \r\nProject Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate \r\nsensitivity (see Box SPM.1). Changes relative to 1850-1900 based on 20-year averaging periods are calculated by adding 0.85degC (the observed global surface \r\ntemperature increase from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995-2014. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0."


id: bb9ca061053e84fabc7100bbe5ccf739
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30232
content:
"Panel (b) September Arctic sea ice area in 106 km2 based on CMIP6 model simulations. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. The Arctic is \r\nprojected to be practically ice-free near mid-century under intermediate and high GHG emissions scenarios."


id: f0f51f77427b42412c1d9885c1d19f80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39758
content:
"Panel (e) Global mean sea level change at 2300 in metres relative to 1900. Only SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 are projected at 2300, as simulations that extend \r\nbeyond 2100 for the other scenarios are too few for robust results. The 17th-83rd percentile ranges are shaded. The dashed arrow illustrates the 83rd percentile \r\nof SSP5-8.5 projections that include low-likelihood, high-impact ice-sheet processes that cannot be ruled out.\r\nPanels (b) and (c) are based on single simulations from each model, and so include a component of internal variability. Panels (a), (d) and (e) are based on long-term \r\naverages, and hence the contributions from internal variability are small."


id: 200d3c6668406b29927590da9c380e33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2855
content:
"Physical climate information addresses how the climate system responds to the interplay between human influence, natural drivers \r\nand internal variability. Knowledge of the climate response and the range of possible outcomes, including low-likelihood, high \r\nimpact outcomes, informs climate services, the assessment of climate-related risks, and adaptation planning. Physical climate \r\ninformation at global, regional and local scales is developed from multiple lines of evidence, including observational products, \r\nclimate model outputs and tailored diagnostics."


id: 11ce40928ee7d44d1197b98498c19649
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 325
content:
"{1.4, 2.2, 3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, 4.4, 4.6, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, Box 7.2, 8.3, 8.5, 9.2, 10.3, 10.4, 10.6, \r\n11.3, 12.5, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2}"


id: 809396af8ab38d202de960f3b3898ec7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"{1.4, 4.4, 8.3, 8.5, 10.3, 10.4, 10.5, 10.6, Atlas.4, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2, TS.4.2, \r\nBox TS.6, Box TS.13}"


id: d0bc2b0dd661d74f11f5cfcd3bbc87d7
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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"{8.2, 9.3, 9.5, 9.6, Box 10.3, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.7, 11.9, Box 11.3, Box 11.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.2, \r\n12.3, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11} \r\n(Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.9)"


id: d40d352b921783b208d910acc19f21ca
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"{9.3, 9.5, 11.3, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.3, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, \r\nAtlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, TS.4.3} (Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.9)"


id: 75b86a6569a9c7051df0135947e436c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"{11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.9, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, TS.4.3} (Table SPM.1)"


id: cbc70c42daafec1dd5d1b33f6c3c2a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
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content:
"{11.7, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1, Atlas.4, Atlas.6, Atlas.7, Atlas.8, Atlas.10, TS.4.3.1, \r\nTS.4.3.2, TS.5} (Table SPM.1, Figure SPM.9)"


id: 827c9ae07cea8d6d05457c73bf198a2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element \r\nof society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, \r\nor a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions. The CIDs are grouped into seven types, which are \r\nsummarized under the icons in the figure. All regions are projected to experience changes in at least 5 CIDs. Almost all \r\n(96%) are projected to experience changes in at least 10 CIDs and half in at least 15 CIDs. For many CID changes, there is \r\nwide geographical variation, and so each region is projected to experience a specific set of CID changes. Each bar in the \r\nchart represents a specific geographical set of changes that can be explored in the WGI Interactive Atlas. "


id: b51670ac36bd9c2d4404217b37555d64
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content:
"Changes refer to a 20-30 \r\nyear period centred around \r\n2050 and/or consistent \r\nwith 2degC global warming \r\ncompared to a similar \r\nperiod within 1960-2014 \r\nor 1850-1900.\r\nASSESSED FUTURE CHANGES"


id: 9702e871923f499308a5ed196a6e9d
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"The height of the lighter shaded 'envelope' behind each bar \r\nrepresents the maximum number of regions for which each \r\nCID is relevant. The envelope is symmetrical about the x-axis \r\nshowing the maximum possible number of relevant regions \r\nfor CID increase (upper part) or decrease (lower part)."


id: 24a0a3358b5c82a035bcf94ebe5d0bdb
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"A total of 35 climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) grouped into seven types are shown: heat and cold; wet and dry; wind; snow and ice; coastal; open ocean; and other. \r\nFor each CID, the bar in the graph below displays the number of AR6 WGI reference regions where it is projected to change. The colours represent the direction \r\nof change and the level of confidence in the change: purple indicates an increase while brown indicates a decrease; darker and lighter shades refer to high and \r\nmedium confidence, respectively. Lighter background colours represent the maximum number of regions for which each CID is broadly relevant."


id: 9a8e10e3edf6e6923411a570eb0e02d9
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"Panel (a) shows the 30 CIDs relevant to the land and coastal regions, while panel (b) shows the five CIDs relevant to the open-ocean regions. Marine heatwaves \r\nand ocean acidity are assessed for coastal ocean regions in panel (a) and for open-ocean regions in panel (b). Changes refer to a 20-30-year period centred around 2050 \r\nand/or consistent with 2degC global warming compared to a similar period within 1960-2014, except for hydrological drought and agricultural and ecological drought, which \r\nis compared to 1850-1900. Definitions of the regions are provided in Sections 12.4 and Atlas.1 and the Interactive Atlas (see https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/).\r\n{11.9, 12.2, 12.4, Atlas.1, Table TS.5, Figures TS.22 and TS.25} (Table SPM.1)"


id: e232c62a6a684223c07fad005ce060f8
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content:
"{1.4, Cross-Chapter Box 1.3, 4.3, 4.4, 4.8, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, 8.6, 9.2, Box 9.4, 11.8, Box 11.2, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 12.1} (Table SPM.1)"


id: e5e0d9c650eaaeb2a3c1bb3ef651ef2a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Since AR5, estimates of remaining carbon budgets have been improved by a new methodology first presented in SR1.5, updated \r\nevidence, and the integration of results from multiple lines of evidence. A comprehensive range of possible future air pollution \r\ncontrols in scenarios is used to consistently assess the effects of various assumptions on projections of climate and air pollution. \r\nA novel development is the ability to ascertain when climate responses to emissions reductions would become discernible above \r\nnatural climate variability, including internal variability and responses to natural drivers."


id: bd982246468a7531ce9ddcea85eeaf27
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"{3.3, 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, Box 5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5.1, 6.7, 7.6, 9.6} (Figure SPM.10, Table SPM.2)"


id: b0b3b6bc55a097b525d7322055e6db5f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Table SPM.2 | Estimates of historical carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and remaining carbon budgets. Estimated remaining carbon budgets are \r\ncalculated from the beginning of 2020 and extend until global net zero CO2 emissions are reached. They refer to CO2 emissions, while accounting for the global \r\nwarming effect of non-CO2 emissions. Global warming in this table refers to human-induced global surface temperature increase, which excludes the impact \r\nof natural variability on global temperatures in individual years. \r\n{Table 3.1, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Box 5.2, Table 5.1, Table 5.7, Table 5.8, Table TS.3}"


id: 78588677a21c2e3543bd9c1b1a890da2
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content:
"b\r\n This likelihood is based on the uncertainty in transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and additional Earth system feedbacks and provides the \r\nprobability that global warming will not exceed the temperature levels provided in the two left columns. Uncertainties related to historical warming (+-550 GtCO2) \r\nand non-CO2 forcing and response (+-220 GtCO2) are partially addressed by the assessed uncertainty in TCRE, but uncertainties in recent emissions since 2015 \r\n(+-20 GtCO2) and the climate response after net zero CO2 emissions are reached (+-420 GtCO2) are separate."


id: 5731aa58d2710362ac754dde592cf4d9
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"c\r\n Remaining carbon budget estimates consider the warming from non-CO2 drivers as implied by the scenarios assessed in SR1.5. The Working Group III Contribution \r\nto AR6 will assess mitigation of non-CO2 emissions."


id: 3578168330a085165cf07a50d6caf1a7
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"compensated by CO2 release and uptake respectively, from or to land and ocean carbon pools (very high confidence). \r\nCDR would lower atmospheric CO2 by an amount approximately equal to the increase from an anthropogenic emission of \r\nthe same magnitude (high confidence). The atmospheric CO2 decrease from anthropogenic CO2 removals could be up to \r\n10% less than the atmospheric CO2 increase from an equal amount of CO2 emissions, depending on the total amount of \r\nCDR (medium confidence).\r\n{5.3, 5.6, TS.3.3}"


id: cf7ff614bb06662722724be87ae87427
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"{4.6, 6.6, 6.7, Cross-Chapter Box 6.1, 9.6, 11.2, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5} (Figure \r\nSPM.8, Figure SPM.10)"


id: d38171cd4bc836ce96b4353ed4a952df
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content:
"are not sufficient in many polluted regions to achieve air quality guidelines specified by the World Health Organization \r\n(high confidence). Scenarios with targeted reductions of air pollutant emissions lead to more rapid improvements in air \r\nquality within years compared to reductions in GHG emissions only, but from 2040, further improvements are projected \r\nin scenarios that combine efforts to reduce air pollutants as well as GHG emissions, with the magnitude of the benefit \r\nvarying between regions (high confidence).\r\n{6.6, 6.7, Box TS.7}."


id: b70a3a7d02773b039a31f693253fbc84
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Paola A. Arias (Colombia), Nicolas Bellouin (United Kingdom/France), Erika Coppola (Italy), \r\nRichard G. Jones (United Kingdom), Gerhard Krinner (France/Germany, France), Jochem Marotzke \r\n(Germany), Vaishali Naik (United States of America), Matthew D. Palmer (United Kingdom), \r\nGian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), Joeri Rogelj (United Kingdom/Belgium), Maisa Rojas (Chile), \r\nJana Sillmann (Norway/Germany), Trude Storelvmo (Norway), Peter W. Thorne (Ireland/United \r\nKingdom), Blair Trewin (Australia)"


id: d3bb2146f3e63c6636866952ce8a0536
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 34593
content:
"TS.3 summarizes knowledge and understanding of climate forcings, \r\nfeedbacks and responses. Infographic TS.1 uses a storyline approach \r\nto integrate findings on possible climate futures. Finally, Section TS.4 \r\nprovides a synthesis of climate information at regional scales.3 The \r\nlist of acronyms used in the WGI Report is in Annex VIII."


id: b0669abeb25f1087304b3cea0f16f37b
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 28270
content:
"The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) \r\nassesses the physical science basis of climate change. As part of \r\nthat contribution, this Technical Summary (TS) is designed to bridge \r\nbetween the comprehensive assessment of the WGI Chapters \r\nand its Summary for Policymakers (SPM). It is primarily built from \r\nthe Executive Summaries of the individual chapters and Atlas and \r\nprovides a synthesis of key findings based on multiple lines of \r\nevidence (e.g., analyses of observations, models, paleoclimate \r\ninformation and understanding of physical, chemical and biological \r\nprocesses and components of the climate system). All the findings \r\nand figures here are supported by and traceable to the underlying \r\nchapters, with relevant chapter sections indicated in curly brackets."


id: 245fc40d932bad77e4759a3bdb54dcc9
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content:
"Text at the beginning of a section presented in dark blue \r\nwith a blue vertical bar at the left, as shown here, provides \r\na summary of the findings discussed in that section."


id: 20ab511c62e67bdcbeba100716fc692b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2975
content:
"The AR6 WGI Report promotes best practices in traceability \r\nand reproducibility, including through adoption of the Findable, \r\nAccessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles for scientific \r\ndata. Each chapter has a data table (in its Supplementary Material) \r\ndocumenting the input data and code used to generate its figures \r\nand tables. In addition, a collection of data and code from the report \r\nhas been made freely-available online via long-term archives.4"


id: a2e8f0355dce4f096312ed088ee174d8
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Throughout this Technical Summary, key assessment findings are \r\nreported using the IPCC calibrated uncertainty language (Chapter 1, \r\nBox 1.1). Two calibrated approaches are used to communicate the \r\ndegree of certainty in key findings, which are based on author teams' \r\nevaluations of underlying scientific understanding:"


id: 55a3d4c344ea7b98fa2b736797f8ad54
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"These FAIR principles are central to the WGI Interactive Atlas5, an \r\nonline tool that complements the WGI Report by providing flexible \r\nspatial and temporal analyses of past, observed and projected \r\nclimate change information. It comprises a regional information \r\ncomponent that supports many of the chapters of the Report and \r\na regional synthesis component that supports the Technical Summary \r\nand Summary for Policymakers."


id: eeb2c4f0c6b4407f3402f22afa0eb9d3
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Regarding the representation of robustness and uncertainty in maps, \r\nthe method chosen for the AR66 differs from the method used in the \r\nFifth Assessment Report (AR5). This choice is based on new research \r\non the visualization of uncertainty and on user surveys."


id: 4bc3c1044b5de2d45e78c72fe26bd9ca
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Where there is sufficient scientific confidence, findings can also be \r\nformulated as statements of fact without uncertainty qualifiers. \r\nThroughout IPCC reports, the calibrated language is clearly identified \r\nby being typeset in italics."


id: 6b912c80158bfd1c80ea0220216a39b3
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"The context and progress in climate science (Section TS.1) is followed \r\nby a Cross-Section Box TS.1 on global surface temperature change. \r\nSection TS.2 provides information about past and future large\u0002scale changes in all components of the climate system. Section "


id: 80d1bbf35fde2dd62e26f992ed4818dd
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"This box provides short descriptions of key concepts that are relevant to the AR6 WGI assessment, with a focus on their use in the \r\nTechnical Summary and the Summary for Policymakers. The Glossary (Annex VII) includes more information on these concepts along \r\nwith definitions of many other important terms and concepts used in this Report."


id: bb143d59a6801a177944058c85b0cad0
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Global warming: Global warming refers to the change of global surface temperature relative to a baseline depending upon the \r\napplication. Specific global warming levels, such as 1.5degC, 2degC, 3degC or 4degC, are defined as changes in global surface temperature \r\nrelative to the years 1850-1900 as the baseline (the earliest period of reliable observations with sufficient geographic coverage). They \r\nare used to assess and communicate information about global and regional changes, linking to scenarios and used as a common basis \r\nfor Working Group II (WGII) and Working Group III (WGIII) assessments. (Section TS.1.3, Cross-Section Box TS.1) {1.4.1, 1.6.2, 4.6.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Boxes 1.5, 2.3, 11.1, and 12.1, Atlas Sections 3-11, Glossary}"


id: ee7bc1b1de232e48bf4e3334ef09a6d4
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39332
content:
"Emergence: Emergence refers to the experience or appearance of novel conditions of a particular climate variable in a given region. \r\nThis concept is often expressed as the ratio of the change in a climate variable relative to the amplitude of natural variations of that \r\nvariable (often termed a 'signal-to-noise' ratio, with emergence occurring at a defined threshold of this ratio). Emergence can be \r\nexpressed in terms of a time or a global warming level at which the novel conditions appear and can be estimated using observations \r\nor model simulations. (Sections TS.1.2.3 and TS.4.2) {1.4.2, FAQ 1.2, 7.5.5, 10.3, 10.4, 12.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.1, Glossary}"


id: 6fb834cf84ccd2386d900e532a295363
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions: The total net amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human \r\nactivities. Given the nearly linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and increases in global surface temperature, \r\ncumulative CO2 emissions are relevant for understanding how past and future CO2 emissions affect global surface temperature. \r\nA related term - remaining carbon budget - is used to describe the total net amount of CO2 that could be released in the future by \r\nhuman activities while keeping global warming to a specific global warming level, such as 1.5degC, taking into account the warming \r\ncontribution from non-CO2 forcers as well. The remaining carbon budget is expressed from a recent specified date, while the total \r\ncarbon budget is expressed starting from the pre-industrial period. (Sections TS.1.3 and TS.3.3) {1.6.3, 5.5, Glossary}"


id: 26b980ac819fa7577329c08d58cc2aed
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Net zero CO2 emissions: A condition that occurs when the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by human activities equals \r\nthe amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere by human activities over a specified period of time. Net negative CO2 emissions \r\noccur when anthropogenic removals exceed anthropogenic emissions. (Section TS.3.3) {Box 1.4, Glossary}"


id: 2a16483b571ce6e6e3b11d76bdbd62bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4616
content:
"Earth's energy imbalance: In a stable climate, the amount of energy that Earth receives from the Sun is approximately in balance \r\nwith the amount of energy that is lost to space in the form of reflected sunlight and thermal radiation. 'Climate drivers', such as an \r\nincrease in greenhouse gases or aerosols, interfere with this balance, causing the system to either gain or lose energy. The strength \r\nof a climate driver is quantified by its effective radiative forcing (ERF), measured in W  m-2. Positive ERF  leads to warming, and \r\nnegative ERF leads to cooling. That warming or cooling in turn can change the energy imbalance through many positive (amplifying) \r\nor negative (dampening) climate feedbacks. (Sections TS.2.2, TS.3.1 and TS.3.2) {2.2.8, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, Box 7.1, Box 7.2, Glossary}"


id: c7e1120d9fddc7ea82ac07c3844bb7ec
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32473
content:
"Attribution: Attribution is the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to an observed change in \r\nclimate variables (e.g., global surface temperature, global mean sea level), or to the occurrence of extreme weather or climate-related \r\nevents. Attributed causal factors include human activities (such as increases in greenhouse gas concentration and aerosols, or land-use \r\nchange) or natural external drivers (solar and volcanic influences), and in some cases internal variability. (Sections TS.1.2.4 and TS.2, \r\nBox TS.10) {Cross-Working Group Box: Attribution in Chapter 1; 3.5; 3.8; 10.4; 11.2.4; Glossary}"


id: 652d80499de886d7907a4f3a69939a8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15068
content:
"Committed change, long-term commitment: Changes in the climate system, resulting from past, present and future human \r\nactivities, which will continue long into the future (centuries to millennia) even with strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. \r\nSome aspects of the climate system, including the terrestrial biosphere, the deep ocean and the cryosphere, respond much more slowly \r\nthan surface temperatures to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. As a result, there are already substantial committed changes \r\nassociated with past greenhouse gas emissions. For example, global mean sea level will continue to rise for thousands of years, even \r\nif future CO2 emissions are reduced to net zero and global warming halted, as excess energy due to past emissions continues to \r\npropagate into the deep ocean and as glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt. (Section TS.2.1, Box TS.4, Box TS.9) {1.2.1, 1.3, Box 1.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 5.3}"


id: b5b6f0e85c6b2c52566d0f3d56264b5d
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29196
content:
"Distillation: The process of synthesizing information about climate change from multiple lines of evidence obtained from a variety \r\nof sources, taking into account user context and values. It leads to an increase in the usability, usefulness and relevance of climate \r\ninformation, enhances stakeholder trust, and expands the foundation of evidence used in climate services. It is particularly relevant in \r\nthe context of co-producing regional-scale climate information to support decision-making. (Section TS.4.1, Box TS.11) {10.1, 10.5, 12.6}"


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content:
"(Climate change) risk: The concept of risk is a key aspect of how the IPCC assesses and communicates to decision-makers about the \r\npotential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognizing the diversity of values and objectives associated with \r\nsuch systems. In the context of climate change, risks can arise from potential impacts of climate change as well as human responses to \r\nclimate change. WGI contributes to the common IPCC risk framing through the assessment of relevant climate information, including \r\nclimatic impact-drivers and low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes. (Sections TS.1.4 and TS.4.1, Box TS.4) {Cross-Chapter Boxes 1.3 and \r\n12.1, Glossary}"


id: 3354d5096e9b0e1abf48e8a7060b273b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Climatic impact-drivers: Physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that can be directly connected with \r\nhaving impacts on human or ecological systems are described as 'climatic impact-drivers' (CIDs) without anticipating whether their \r\nimpacts are detrimental (i.e., as for hazards in the context of climate change risks) or provide potential opportunities. A range of indices \r\nmay capture the sector- or application-relevant characteristics of a climatic impact-driver and can reflect exceedances of identified \r\ntolerance thresholds. (Sections TS.1.4 and TS.4.3) {12.1-12.3, FAQ 12.1, Glossary}"


id: 548c5744732e7df29699894195f69fb7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Storylines: The term storyline is used both in connection to scenarios (related to a future trajectory of emissions or socio-economic \r\ndevelopments) or to describe plausible trajectories of weather and climate conditions or events, especially those related to high levels \r\nof risk. Physical climate storylines are introduced in AR6 to explore uncertainties in climate change and natural climate variability, to \r\ndevelop and communicate integrated and context-relevant regional climate information, and to address issues with deep uncertainty7, \r\nincluding low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes. (Section TS.1.4, Box TS.3, Infographic TS.1) {1.4.4, Box 10.2, Glossary}"


id: 77baaf249b45c8a9e0f92a6ec545019e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Low-likelihood, high impact outcomes: Outcomes/events whose probability of occurrence is low or not well known (as in the context \r\nof deep uncertainty) but whose potential impacts on society and ecosystems could be high. To better inform risk assessment and \r\ndecision-making, such low-likelihood outcomes are considered if they are associated with very large consequences and may therefore \r\nconstitute material risks, even though those consequences do not necessarily represent the most likely outcome. (Section TS.1.4, \r\nBox TS.3, Figure TS.6) {1.4.4, 4.8, Cross Chapter Box 1.3, Glossary}"


id: 9180589d15347049179a88baedb80332
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"As part of the AR6 cycle, the IPCC produced three Special Reports \r\nin 2018 and 2019: the Special Report on Global Warming of \r\n1.5degC (SR1.5), the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in \r\na  Changing Climate (SROCC), and the Special Report on Climate \r\nChange and Land (SRCCL)."


id: c1605328df355dd336771b8ac9ef7d84
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"The AR6 WGI Report provides a full and comprehensive assessment \r\nof the physical science basis of climate change that builds on the \r\nprevious assessments and these Special Reports and considers new \r\ninformation and knowledge from the recent scientific literature8, \r\nincluding longer observational datasets and new scenarios and \r\nmodel results."


id: 8329806643ac311228e1d7fc4757b1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The structure of the AR6 WGI Report is designed to enhance the \r\nvisibility of knowledge developments and to facilitate the integration \r\nof multiple lines of evidence, thereby improving confidence in findings. "


id: 464b012b6c6d5da00ae4fe5287c2e84a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Interactive Atlas allows users to interact in a flexible manner through \r\nmaps, time series and summary statistics with climate information for \r\na set of updated WGI reference regions. The Report also includes 34 \r\nFrequently Asked Questions and answers for the general public (https://\r\nwww.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/faqs)."


id: 16238efd5e255e0c4471c4adf0466902
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Together, this Technical Summary and the underlying chapters aim at \r\nproviding a comprehensive picture of knowledge progress since the \r\nWGI contribution to AR5. Multiple lines of scientific evidence confirm \r\nthat the climate is changing due to human influence. Important \r\nadvances in the ability to understand past, present and possible \r\nfuture changes should result in better-informed decision-making."


id: d8938d266dad572e128aa9bbd7fba906
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Some of the new results and main updates to key findings in this \r\nReport compared to AR5, SR1.5, SRCCL, and SROCC are summarized \r\nbelow. Relevant Technical Summary sections with further details are \r\nshown in parentheses after each bullet point."


id: e700e539c176cc9a854c5deedba8a6de
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content:
"also accounting for aerosol-cloud interactions. The best estimates \r\nof ERF attributed to sulphur dioxide (SO2) and CH4 emissions are \r\nsubstantially greater than in AR5, while that of black carbon is \r\nsubstantially reduced. The magnitude of uncertainty in the ERF \r\ndue to black carbon emissions has also been reduced relative to \r\nAR5. (Section TS.3.1)\r\n* "


id: 733a5f64d872504669f9a5f7656b217e
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content:
"This section introduces the assessment of the physical science basis of \r\nclimate change in the AR6 and presents the climate context in which \r\nthis assessment takes place, recent progress in climate science and \r\nthe relevance of global and regional climate information for impact \r\nand risk assessments. The future emissions scenarios and global \r\nwarming levels, used to integrate assessments across this Report, \r\nare introduced and their applications for future climate projections \r\nare  briefly addressed. Paleoclimate science provides a long-term \r\ncontext for observed climate change of the past 150 years and the \r\nprojected changes in the 21st century and beyond (Box TS.2). The \r\nassessment of past, current and future global surface temperature \r\nchanges relative to the standard baselines and reference periods13\r\nused throughout this Report is summarized in Cross-Section Box TS.1."


id: 69e6fa351236a78ed4492ddefa960749
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Earth's climate system has evolved over many millions of years, and \r\nevidence from natural archives provides a long-term perspective on \r\nobserved changes and projected changes over the coming centuries. \r\nThese reconstructions of past climate also show that atmospheric \r\nCO2 concentrations and global surface temperature are strongly \r\ncoupled (Figure TS.1), based on evidence from a variety of proxy \r\nrecords over multiple time scales (Box TS.2, Section TS.2). Levels of \r\nglobal warming (see Core Concepts Box) that have not been seen \r\nin millions of years could be reached by 2300, depending on the \r\nemissions pathway that is followed (Section TS.1.3). For example, \r\nthere is medium confidence that, by 2300, an intermediate scenario14\r\nused in this Report leads to global surface temperatures of [2.3degC \r\nto 4.6degC] higher than 1850-1900, similar to the mid-Pliocene Warm "


id: faab13fd6cc90a6b409bb4596bf92627
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content:
"been studied systematically since the early 20th century. Other \r\nmajor anthropogenic drivers, such as atmospheric aerosols (fine \r\nsolid particles or liquid droplets), land-use change and non-CO2\r\ngreenhouse gases, were identified by the 1970s. Since systematic \r\nscientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human \r\nactivities on the warming of the climate system has evolved from \r\ntheory to established fact (see also Section TS.2). The evidence for \r\nhuman influence on recent climate change strengthened from the \r\nIPCC First Assessment Report in 1990 to the IPCC Fifth Assessment \r\nReport in 2013/14, and is now even stronger in this assessment \r\n(Sections TS.1.2.4 and TS.2). Changes across a greater number of \r\nclimate system components, including changes in regional climate \r\nand extremes can now be attributed to human influence (see \r\nSections TS.2 and TS.4). {1.3.1-1.3.5, 3.1, 11.2, 11.9}"


id: 1b771920f521736a9c82825191b504ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 2013
content:
"Period [2.5degC to 4degC], about 3.2 million years ago, whereas the high \r\nCO2 emissions scenario SSP5-8.5 leads to temperatures of [6.6degC \r\nto 14.1degC] by 2300, which overlaps with the Early Eocene Climate \r\nOptimum [10degC to 18degC], about 50 million years ago. {Cross-Chapter \r\nBoxes 2.1 and 2.4, 2.3.1, 4.3.1.1, 4.7.1.2, 7.4.4.1}"


id: c3eb6575d4d1c81522a09a1fe831015a
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content:
"Understanding of the climate system's fundamental elements is \r\nrobust and well established. Scientists in the 19th century identified \r\nthe major natural factors influencing the climate system. They \r\nalso hypothesized the potential for anthropogenic climate change \r\ndue to CO2 emitted by combustion of fossil fuels (petroleum, \r\ncoal, natural gas). The principal natural drivers of climate change, \r\nincluding changes in incoming solar radiation, volcanic activity, \r\norbital cycles and changes in global biogeochemical cycles, have "


id: c7db8b5a5204c7fc1bcd4c10ccf4efb6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Paleoclimate reference periods. Over the long evolution of Earth's climate, several periods have received extensive research \r\nattention as examples of distinct climate states and rapid climate transitions (Box TS.2, Figure 1). These paleoclimate reference periods \r\nrepresent the present geological era (Cenozoic; past 65 million years) and are used across chapters to help structure the assessment \r\nof climate changes prior to industrialization. Cross-Chapter Box 2.1 describes the reference periods, along with a brief account of their \r\nclimate forcings, and lists where each is discussed in other chapters. Cross-Chapter Box 2.4 summarizes information on one of the \r\nreference periods, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. The Interactive Atlas includes model output from the World Climate Research \r\nProgramme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for four of the paleoclimate reference periods."


id: d6cbd8a84dd084f69de2de31b1daa060
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Box TS.2, Figure 1 | Paleoclimate and recent reference periods, with selected key indicators. The intent of this figure is to list the paleoclimate reference \r\nperiods used in this Report, to summarize three key global climate indicators, and compare CO2 with global temperature over multiple periods. (a) Three large-scale \r\nclimate indicators (atmospheric CO2, global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900, and global mean sea level relative to 1900), based on assessments in \r\nChapter 2, with confidence levels ranging from low to very high. (b) Comparison between global surface temperature (relative to 1850-1900) and atmospheric CO2\r\nconcentration (shown on a log scale) for multiple reference periods (mid-points with 5-95% ranges). {2.2.3, 2.3.1.1, 2.3.3.3, Figure 2.34}"


id: e5c62fb88a16273b73f6010de791784
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"Paleoclimate models and reconstructions. Climate models that target paleoclimate reference periods have been featured by \r\nthe IPCC since the First Assessment Report. Under the framework of CMIP6-PMIP4 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project), \r\nnew protocols for model intercomparisons have been developed for multiple paleoclimate reference periods. These modelling efforts \r\nhave led to improved understanding of the climate response to different external forcings, including changes in Earth's orbital and \r\nplate movements, solar irradiance, volcanism, ice-sheet size and atmospheric greenhouse gases. Likewise, quantitative reconstructions \r\nof climate variables from proxy records that are compared with paleoclimate simulations have improved as the number of study sites \r\nand variety of proxy types have expanded, and as records have been compiled into new regional and global datasets. {1.3.2, 1.5.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Boxes 2.1 and 2.4}"


id: 4f775af7bdbd1e61065aff7e8704deda
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11268
content:
"Global surface temperature. Since AR5, updated climate forcings, improved models, new understanding of the strengths \r\nand weaknesses of a growing array of proxy records, better chronologies and more robust proxy data products have led to better \r\nagreement between models and reconstructions. For global surface temperature, the mid-point of the AR6-assessed range and the \r\nmedian of the model-simulated temperatures differ by an average of 0.5degC across five reference periods; they overlap within their "


id: 478f1709cbf138291fac91c0c43f121c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"90% ranges in four of five cases, which together span from about 6 [5 to 7]degC colder during the Last Glacial Maximum to about 14 [10 \r\nto 18] degC warmer during the Early Eocene, relative to 1850-1900 (Box TS.2, Figure 2a). Changes in temperature by latitude in response \r\nto multiple forcings show that polar amplification (stronger warming at high latitudes than the global average) is a prominent feature \r\nof the climate system across multiple climate states, and the ability of models to simulate this polar amplification in past warm \r\nclimates has improved since AR5 (high confidence). Over the past millennium, and especially since about 1300 CE, simulated global \r\nsurface temperature anomalies are well within the uncertainty of reconstructions (medium confidence), except for some short periods \r\nimmediately following large volcanic eruptions, for which different forcing datasets disagree (Box TS.2, Figure 2b). {2.3.1.1, 3.3.3.1, \r\n3.8.2.1, 7.4.4.1.2}"


id: 7e20cd7cb7a33670bbab5c86a0381267
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19363
content:
"Equilibrium climate sensitivity. Paleoclimate data provide evidence to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS15) (Section \r\nTS.3.2.1). In AR6, refinements in paleo data for paleoclimate reference periods indicate that ECS is very likely greater than 1.5degC and \r\nlikely less than 4.5degC, which is largely consistent with other lines of evidence and helps narrow the uncertainty range of the overall \r\nassessment of ECS. Some of the CMIP6 climate models that have either high (>5degC) or low (<2degC) ECS also simulate past global \r\nsurface temperature changes outside the range of proxy-based reconstructions for the coldest and warmest reference periods. Since \r\nAR5, independent lines of evidence, including proxy records from past warm periods and glacial-interglacial cycles, indicate that \r\nsensitivity to forcing increases as temperature increases (Section TS.3.2.2). {7.4.3.2, 7.5.3, 7.5.6, Table 7.11}"


id: 85579a692382ffe91245e7034955ea0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20595
content:
"Water cycle. New hydroclimate reconstructions and model-data comparisons have improved the understanding of the causes \r\nand effects of long-term changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation, including monsoon variability and modes of variability \r\n(Box TS.13, Section TS.4.2). Climate models are able to reproduce decadal drought variability on large regional scales, including the \r\nseverity, persistence and spatial extent of past megadroughts known from proxy records (medium confidence). Some long-standing \r\ndiscrepancies remain, however, such as the magnitude of African monsoon precipitation during the early Holocene (the past 11,700 \r\nyears), suggesting continuing knowledge gaps. Paleoclimate evidence shows that, in relatively high CO2 climates such as the Pliocene, \r\nWalker circulation over the equatorial Pacific Ocean weakens, supporting the high confidence model projections of weakened Walker \r\ncells by the end of the 21st century. {3.3.2, 8.3.1.6, 8.4.1.6, 8.5.2.1, 9.2}"


id: c73c56611109952eafed02df1e64563c
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32369
content:
"Carbon cycle. Past climate states were associated with substantial differences in the inventories of the various carbon reservoirs, \r\nincluding the atmosphere (Section TS.2.2). Since AR5, the quantification of carbon stocks has improved due to the development of \r\nnovel sedimentary proxies and stable-isotope analyses of air trapped in polar ice. Terrestrial carbon storage decreased markedly \r\nduring the Last Glacial Maximum by 300-600 PgC, possibly by 850 PgC when accounting for interactions with the lithosphere and \r\nocean sediments, a larger reduction than previously estimated, owing to a colder and drier climate. At the same time, the storage of \r\nremineralized carbon in the ocean interior increased by as much as 750-950 PgC, sufficient to balance the removal of carbon from the \r\natmosphere (200 PgC) and terrestrial biosphere reservoirs combined (high confidence). {5.1.2.2}"


id: e7b509bb6bea749d50276262105808c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38070
content:
"Observational capabilities have continued to improve and \r\nexpand overall since AR5, enabling improved consistency \r\nbetween independent estimates of climate drivers, the \r\ncombined climate feedbacks, and the observed energy \r\nand sea level increase. Satellite climate records and \r\nimproved reanalyses are used as an additional line of \r\nevidence for assessing changes at the global and regional \r\nscales. However, there have also been reductions in some \r\nobservational data coverage or continuity and limited \r\naccess to data resulting from data policy issues. Natural \r\narchives of past climate, such as tropical glaciers, have also \r\nbeen subject to losses (in part due to anthropogenic climate \r\nchange). {1.5.1, 1.5.2, 10.2.2}"


id: 834c0b93aa27c36ce372f5df36a6b9b
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20227
content:
"New paleoclimate reconstructions from natural archives have enabled \r\nmore robust reconstructions of the spatial and temporal patterns of \r\npast climate changes over multiple time scales (Box TS.2). However, \r\npaleoclimate archives, such as tropical glaciers and modern natural \r\narchives used for calibration (e.g., corals and trees), are rapidly \r\ndisappearing owing to a host of pressures, including increasing "


id: 382f9f61aec3aaeca8001d66abefd9c4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7089
content:
"Earth system observations are an essential driver of progress in our \r\nunderstanding of climate change. Overall, capabilities to observe \r\nthe physical climate system have continued to improve and expand.\r\nImprovements are particularly evident in ocean observing networks \r\nand remote-sensing systems. Records from several recently instigated "


id: a831454419e290be2a2ff0c0b072559d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26808
content:
"Section Box TS.1). Increasing horizontal resolution in global \r\nclimate models improves the representation of small-scale \r\nfeatures and the statistics of daily precipitation (high \r\nconfidence). Earth system models, which include additional \r\nbiogeochemical feedbacks, often perform as well as their \r\nlower-complexity global climate model counterparts, which \r\ndo not account for these additional feedbacks (medium \r\nconfidence). {1.3.6, 1.5.3, 3.1, 3.5.1, 3.8.2, 4.3.1, 4.3.4, 7.5, \r\n8.5.1, 9.6.3.1}"


id: 7ad190a98856cebaf1c071eca80a0c0e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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vector_id: 18811
content:
"temperatures (high confidence). Substantial quantities of past \r\ninstrumental observations of weather and other climate variables, \r\nover both land and ocean, which could fill gaps in existing datasets, \r\nremain un-digitized or inaccessible. These include measurements of \r\ntemperature (air and sea surface), rainfall, surface pressure, wind \r\nstrength and direction, sunshine amount and many other variables \r\ndating back into the 19th century. {1.5.1}"


id: c2dc733a1e4db79af33f5d25834615a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31559
content:
"Projections of the increase in global surface temperature and the \r\npattern of warming from previous IPCC Assessment Reports and other \r\nstudies are broadly consistent with subsequent observations (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement), especially when accounting for the \r\ndifference in radiative forcing scenarios used for making projections \r\nand the radiative forcings that actually occurred (Figure TS.3). The \r\nAR5 and SROCC projections of GMSL for the 2007-2018 period have \r\nbeen shown to be consistent with observed trends in GMSL and \r\nregional weighted mean tide gauges. {1.3.6, 9.6.3.1}"


id: 7d82149e05eaddcd0671d1adeb6c0857
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19251
content:
"For most large-scale indicators of climate change, the simulated \r\nrecent mean climate from CMIP6 models underpinning this \r\nassessment have improved compared to the CMIP5 models used in \r\nAR5 (high confidence). This is evident from the performance of 18 \r\nsimulated atmospheric and land large-scale indicators of climate \r\nchange between the three generations of models (CMIP3, CMIP5, \r\nand CMIP6) when benchmarked against reanalysis and observational \r\ndata (Figure TS.2, Panel c). Earth system models, characterized by \r\nadditional biogeochemical feedbacks, often perform at least as well \r\nas related, more constrained, lower-complexity models lacking these \r\nfeedbacks (medium confidence). {3.8.2, 10.3.3.3}"


id: 33e69aadf77fb50fe9f2e9fc06a97f08
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6372
content:
"The CMIP6 historical simulations assessed in this report \r\nhave an ensemble mean global surface temperature \r\nchange within 0.2degC of the observations over most of the \r\nhistorical period, and observed warming is within the very \r\nlikely range of the CMIP6 ensemble. However, some CMIP6 \r\nmodels simulate a warming that is either above or below \r\nthe assessed very likely range of observed warming. The \r\ninformation about how well models simulate past warming, \r\nas well as other insights from observations and theory, are \r\nused to assess projections of global warming (see Cross\u0002"


id: d8399974bcf2e387bd28de3853833fba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35342
content:
"The CMIP6 multi-model mean global surface temperature change \r\nfrom 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 is close to the best estimate of \r\nthe observed warming. However, some CMIP6 models simulate \r\na warming that is below or above the assessed very likely range. The \r\nCMIP6 models also reproduce surface temperature variations over \r\nthe past millennium, including the cooling that follows periods of \r\nintense volcanism (medium confidence). For upper air temperature, \r\nan overestimation of the upper tropical troposphere warming by "


id: 6f60a677d9649474252f9af70448ab46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16857
content:
"about 0.1degC per decade between 1979 and 2014 persists in most \r\nCMIP5 and CMIP6 models (medium confidence), whereas the \r\ndifferences between simulated and improved satellite-derived \r\nestimates of change in global mean temperature through the depth \r\nof the stratosphere have decreased. {3.3.1}"


id: 1394bda0fd349ffe48575ce4880ca970
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 661
content:
"evolution of the satellite-observed Arctic sea ice loss (high confidence). \r\nThe ability to model ice-sheet processes has improved substantially \r\nsince AR5. As a consequence, there is medium confidence in the \r\nrepresentation of key processes related to surface-mass balance and \r\nretreat of the grounding-line (the junction between a grounded ice \r\nsheet and an ice shelf, where the ice starts to float) in the absence \r\nof instabilities. However, there remains low confidence in simulations \r\nof ice-sheet instabilities, ice-shelf disintegration and basal melting \r\nowing to their high sensitivity to both uncertain oceanic forcing and \r\nuncertain boundary conditions and parameters. {1.5.3, 2.3.2, 3.4.1, \r\n3.4.2, 3.8.2, 9.3.1, 9.3.2, 9.4.1, 9.4.2}"


id: a22bf9b7237305a40867271ec0cc2293
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25769
content:
"CMIP6 models still have deficiencies in simulating precipitation \r\npatterns, particularly in the tropical ocean. Increasing horizontal \r\nresolution in global climate models improves the representation of \r\nsmall-scale features and the statistics of daily precipitation (high \r\nconfidence). There is high confidence that high-resolution global, \r\nregional and hydrological models provide a better representation of \r\nland surfaces, including topography, vegetation and land-use change, \r\nwhich can improve the accuracy of simulations of regional changes in \r\nthe terrestrial water cycle. {3.3.2, 8.5.1, 10.3.3, 11.2.3}"


id: 3fcf98ebff222cb881443dd14b52d029
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8420
content:
"Earth system models (ESMs) simulate globally averaged land \r\ncarbon sinks within the range of observation-based estimates \r\n(high confidence), but global-scale agreement masks large regional \r\ndisagreements. There is also high confidence that the ESMs simulate \r\nthe weakening of the global net flux of CO2 into the ocean during \r\nthe 1990s, as well as the strengthening of the flux from 2000. {3.6}"


id: 2c833b0b494d199945a3ae488dc521dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5098
content:
"There is high confidence that climate models can reproduce the recent \r\nobserved mean state and overall warming of temperature extremes \r\nglobally and in most regions, although the magnitude of the trends \r\nmay differ. There is high confidence in the ability of models to capture \r\nthe large-scale spatial distribution of precipitation extremes over land. \r\nThe overall performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the intensity \r\nand frequency of extreme precipitation is similar to that of CMIP5 \r\nmodels (high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 3.2, 11.3.3, 11.4.3}"


id: 3359828d72dfe9bc14314cf00885e774
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6284
content:
"The structure and magnitude of multi-model mean ocean temperature \r\nbiases have not changed substantially between CMIP5 and CMIP6 \r\n(medium confidence). Since AR5, there is improved consistency \r\nbetween recent observed estimates and model simulations of changes \r\nin upper (<700 m) ocean heat content. The mean zonal and overturning \r\ncirculations of the Southern Ocean and the mean overturning \r\ncirculation of the North Atlantic (AMOC) are broadly reproduced by \r\nCMIP5 and CMIP6 models. {3.5.1, 3.5.4, 9.2.3, 9.3.2, 9.4.2}"


id: 74f5e32327f13eb88b43c6666ff0016c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17812
content:
"Observed changes in climate are unequivocal at the global \r\nscale and are increasingly apparent on regional and local \r\nspatial scales. Both the rate of long-term change and \r\nthe amplitude of year-to-year variations differ between \r\nregions and across climate variables, thus influencing when \r\nchanges emerge or become apparent compared to natural \r\nvariations (see Emergence in Core Concepts Box). The signal \r\nof temperature change has emerged more clearly in tropical \r\nregions, where year-to-year variations tend to be small over \r\nland, than in regions with greater warming but larger year\u0002to-year variations (high confidence) (Figure TS.3). Long\u0002term changes in other variables have emerged in many \r\nregions, such as for some weather and climate extremes \r\nand Arctic sea ice area. {1.4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, 9.3.1, \r\n11.3.2, 12.5.2}"


id: 5bbb4d48f1ff4b209b0b3e0a8720d548
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13396
content:
"occurred, and there is medium confidence that many of these changes \r\nare attributable to human activities. Several impact-relevant changes \r\nhave not yet emerged from natural variability but will emerge sooner \r\nor later in this century depending on the emissions scenario (high \r\nconfidence). Ocean acidification and deoxygenation have already \r\nemerged over most of the global open ocean, as has a reduction in \r\nArctic sea ice (high confidence). {9.3.1, 9.6.4, 11.2, 11.3, 12.4, 12.5, \r\nAtlas.3-Atlas.11} "


id: e584746ee3a877c26d8cc336f474d2ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37687
content:
"of internal variability and forced change in the climate system. \r\nSimulations and understanding of modes of climate variability, \r\nincluding teleconnections, have improved since AR5 (medium \r\nconfidence), and larger ensembles allow a better quantification of \r\nuncertainty in projections due to internal climate variability. {1.4.2, \r\n1.5.3, 1.5.4, 4.2, 4.4.1, Box 4.1, 8.5.2, 10.3.4, 10.4}"


id: a1104d2ebaec7f5dcbdaf67802a3d91d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25559
content:
"Changes in regional climate can be detected even though natural \r\nclimate variations can temporarily increase or obscure anthropogenic \r\nclimate change on decadal time scales. While anthropogenic forcing \r\nhas contributed to multi-decadal mean precipitation changes in \r\nseveral regions, internal variability can delay emergence of the \r\nanthropogenic signal in long-term precipitation changes in many \r\nland regions (high confidence). {10.4}"


id: 6a3aed32ab4086c146c9830ac69942ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15967
content:
"The evidence for human influence on recent climate change \r\nhas strengthened progressively from the IPCC Second \r\nAssessment Report to AR5 and is even stronger in this \r\nassessment, including for regional scales and for extremes. \r\nHuman influence in the IPCC context refers to the human \r\nactivities that lead to or contribute to a climate response, \r\nsuch as the human-induced emissions of greenhouse \r\ngases that subsequently alter the atmosphere's radiative "


id: bb81f771adf8ba5e99ff0ff48906ecd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30208
content:
"Mean temperatures and heat extremes have emerged above natural \r\nvariability in almost all land regions with high confidence. Changes \r\nin temperature-related variables, such as regional temperatures, \r\ngrowing season length, extreme heat and frost, have already "


id: 909c1c36afb9ec16075754fac6a66e95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22649
content:
"of scientific literature combining different lines of evidence, and \r\nimproved accessibility to different types of climate models (high \r\nconfidence) (see Sections TS.2 and TS.4). {Cross-Working Group Box: \r\nAttribution in Chapter 1, 1.5, 3.2, 3.5, 5.2, 6.4.3, 8.3, 9.6, 10.1, 10.2, \r\n10.3.3, 10.4.1, 10.4.2, 10.4.3, 10.5, 10.6, Cross-Chapter Box  10.3, \r\nBox 10.3, 11.1.6, 11.2-11.9, 12.4}"


id: 66bc8dfad4b7378e8fba6a4804ea26e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15335
content:
"Various frameworks can be used to assess future climatic changes and \r\nto synthesize knowledge across climate change assessment in WGI, \r\nWGII and WGIII. These frameworks include: (i) scenarios, (ii) global \r\nwarming levels and (iii) cumulative CO2 emissions (see Core Concepts \r\nBox). The latter two offer scenario- and path-independent approaches \r\nto assess future projections. Additional choices, for instance with regard \r\nto common reference periods and time windows for which changes \r\nare assessed, can further help to facilitate integration across the WGI \r\nreport and across the whole AR6 (see Section TS.1.1). {1.4.1, 1.6, Cross\u0002Chapter Box 1.4, 4.2.2, 4.2.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: e1bfac1156189ce4f3f3a35115a1810b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36995
content:
"Combining the evidence from across the climate system increases \r\nthe level of confidence in the attribution of observed climate change \r\nto human influence and reduces the uncertainties associated with \r\nassessments based on single variables. {Cross-Chapter Box 10.3}"


id: fdfd98d06646baceaec2d7514b1e118e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42052
content:
"A core set of five illustrative scenarios based on the Shared \r\nSocio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are used consistently \r\nacross this Report: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, \r\nand SSP5-8.5. These scenarios cover a broader range of \r\ngreenhouse gas and air pollutant futures than assessed in \r\nearlier WGI reports, and they include high-CO2 emissions \r\npathways without climate change mitigation as well as new \r\nlow-CO2 emissions pathways (Figure TS.4). In these scenarios, \r\ndifferences in air pollution control and variations in climate \r\nchange mitigation stringency strongly affect anthropogenic \r\nemissions trajectories of SLCFs. Modelling studies relying \r\non the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used \r\nin AR5 complement the assessment based on SSP scenarios, \r\nfor example at the regional scale. "


id: 8cc1faea226824bb833963d0e1e3cb02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21949
content:
"Since AR5, the accumulation of energy in the Earth system has \r\nbecome established as a robust measure of the rate of global \r\nclimate change on interannual-to-decadal time scales. The rate of \r\naccumulation of energy is equivalent to Earth's energy imbalance \r\nand can be quantified by changes in the global energy inventory for \r\nall components of the climate system, including global ocean heat \r\nuptake, warming of the atmosphere, warming of the land and melting \r\nof ice. Compared to changes in global surface temperature, Earth's \r\nenergy imbalance (see Core Concepts Box) exhibits less variability, \r\nenabling more accurate identification and estimation of trends. {Box \r\n7.2 and Section 7.2}"


id: 2928255c18fe9884bb8c2f9c18a18a66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4451
content:
"Identifying the human-induced components contributing to the \r\nenergy budget provides an implicit estimate of the human influence \r\non global climate change (Sections TS.2 and TS.3.1). {Cross-Working \r\nGroup Box: Attribution in Chapter  1, 3.8, 7.2.2, Box  7.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 9.1}"


id: fd13e763e5e2a35efcd6b17cc3446fe2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41879
content:
"A comparison of simulations from CMIP5 using the RCPs \r\nwith SSP-based simulations from CMIP6 shows that about \r\nhalf of the increase in simulated warming in CMIP6 versus \r\nCMIP5 arises because higher climate sensitivity is more \r\nprevalent in CMIP6 model versions; the other half arises \r\nfrom higher radiative forcing in nominally corresponding \r\nscenarios (e.g., RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5; medium confidence). \r\nThe feasibility or likelihood of individual scenarios is not \r\npart of this assessment, which focuses on the climate \r\nresponse to a large range of emissions scenarios. {1.5.4, 1.6, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 1.4, 4.2, 4.3, 4.6, 6.6, 6.7, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 7.1, Atlas.2.1}"


id: 981ae4a6e8f487aa2015a0f6811c8bdc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23974
content:
"Climate change projections with climate models require information \r\nabout future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases, \r\naerosols, ozone-depleting substances, and land use over time \r\n(Figure TS.4). This information can be provided by scenarios, which \r\nare internally consistent projections of these quantities based on \r\nassumptions of how socio-economic systems could evolve over the \r\n21st century. Emissions from natural sources, such as the ocean and "


id: 2ef256c3910bb9fdf29abe0bc4961655
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5531
content:
"at the regional scale (Section TS.4). Scenario extensions are based \r\non assumptions about the post-2100 evolution of emissions or of \r\nradiative forcing that are independent from the modelling of socio\u0002economic dynamics, which does not extend beyond 2100. To explore \r\nspecific dimensions, such as air pollution or temporary overshoot of \r\na given warming level, scenario variants are used in addition to the \r\ncore set. {1.6.1, Cross-Chapter Box  1.4, 4.2.2, 4.2.6, 4.7.1, Cross\u0002Chapter Box 7.1}"


id: ecad4951499dca40bee3518d15c6925d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38995
content:
"the land biosphere, are usually assumed to be constant, or to evolve \r\nin response to changes in anthropogenic forcings or to projected \r\nclimate change. Natural forcings, such as past changes in solar \r\nirradiance and historical volcanic eruptions, are represented in model \r\nsimulations covering the historical era. Future simulations assessed \r\nin this Report account for projected changes in solar irradiance and \r\nfor the long-term mean background forcing from volcanoes, but not \r\nfor individual volcanic eruptions. Scenarios have a long history in \r\nIPCC as a method for systematically examining possible futures and \r\nfollowing the cause-effect chain: from anthropogenic emissions, to \r\nchanges in atmospheric concentrations, to changes in Earth's energy \r\nbalance ('forcing'), to changes in global climate and ultimately \r\nregional climate and climatic impact-drivers (Figure TS.4, Section \r\nTS.2, Infographic TS.1). {1.5.4, 1.6.1, 4.2.2, 4.4.4, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 4.1, 11.1}"


id: 41b041bc8e5ac772209976eb34d5ce6f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8745
content:
"The uncertainty in climate change projections that results from \r\nassessing alternative socio-economic futures, the so-called scenario \r\nuncertainty, is explored through the use of scenario sets. Designed \r\nto span a wide range of possible future conditions, these scenarios \r\ndo not intend to match how events actually unfold in the future, \r\nand they do not account for impacts of climate change on the socio\u0002economic pathways. Besides scenario uncertainty, climate change \r\nprojections are also subject to climate response uncertainty (i.e., the \r\nuncertainty related to our understanding of the key physical processes \r\nand structural uncertainties in climate models) and irreducible and \r\nintrinsic uncertainties related to internal variability. Depending on \r\nthe spatial and temporal scales of the projection, and on the variable \r\nof interest, the relative importance of these different uncertainties \r\nmay vary substantially. {1.4.3, 1.6, 4.2.5, Box 4.1, 8.5.1}"


id: a623d315390d3957abdb8ca14ec93dc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26451
content:
"policies. Their effects on climate and air pollution are assessed in Box \r\nTS.7. {4.4.4, 6.6.1, Figure 6.4, 6.7.1, Figure 6.19}"


id: 3245b8f4e3e12760dd2b1d1bf532d7e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6100
content:
"For many indicators of climate change, such as seasonal and annual \r\nmean and extreme surface air temperatures and precipitation, the \r\ngeographical patterns of changes are well estimated by the level of \r\nglobal surface warming, independently of the details of the emissions \r\npathways that caused the warming, or the time at which the level of \r\nwarming is attained. GWLs, defined as a global surface temperature \r\nincrease of, for example, 1.5degC or 2degC relative to the mean of 1850-\r\n1900, are therefore a useful way to integrate climate information \r\nindependently of specific scenarios or time periods. {1.6.2, 4.2.4, \r\n4.6.1, 11.2.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: 1c02f3bbc729a8196075c56c39e59e58
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2113
content:
"The use of GWLs allows disentangling the contribution of changes \r\nin global warming from regional aspects of the climate response, \r\nas scenario differences in response patterns at a given GWL are \r\noften smaller than model uncertainty and internal variability. The \r\nrelationship between the GWL and response patterns is often linear, \r\nbut integration of information can also be done for non-linear \r\nchanges, like the frequency of heat extremes. The requirement is that \r\nthe relationship to the GWL is broadly independent of the scenario \r\nand relative contribution of radiative forcing agents. {1.6, 11.2.4, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: d924b9707e5491a7343d8cf1a0352c4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35497
content:
"The GWL approach to integration of climate information also has \r\nsome limitations. Variables that are quick to respond to warming, \r\nlike temperature and precipitation, including extremes, sea ice area, \r\npermafrost and snow cover, show little scenario dependence for a \r\ngiven GWL, whereas slow-responding variables such as glacier and \r\nice-sheet mass, warming of the deep ocean and their contributions \r\nto sea level rise, have substantial dependency on the trajectory of "


id: 8eaa29d25e23585297367b06e5e95e4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22286
content:
"SR1.5 concluded that 'climate models project robust differences in \r\nregional climate characteristics between present-day and global \r\nwarming of 1.5degC, and between 1.5degC and 2degC'. This Report adopts \r\na set of common GWLs across which climate projections, impacts, \r\nadaptation challenges and climate change mitigation challenges can \r\nbe integrated, within and across the three Working Groups, relative \r\nto 1850-1900. The core set of GWLs in this Report are 1.0degC (close \r\nto present day conditions), 1.5degC, 2.0degC, 3.0degC and 4.0degC. {1.4, 1.6.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 1.2, Table 1.5, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1}"


id: ae68dc8c5a387ff5200fd77fab42ce27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27913
content:
"warming taken to reach the GWL. A given GWL can also be reached \r\nfor different balances between anthropogenic forcing agents, such \r\nas long-lived greenhouse gas and SLCF emissions, and the response \r\npatterns may depend on this balance. Finally, there is a difference \r\nin the response even for temperature-related variables if a GWL is \r\nreached in a rapidly warming transient state or in an equilibrium \r\nstate when the land-sea warming contrast is less pronounced. In this \r\nReport, the climate responses at different GWLs are calculated based \r\non climate model projections for the 21st century (see Figure TS.5), \r\nwhich are mostly not in equilibrium. The SSP1-1.9 scenario allows \r\nassessing the response to a GWL of about 1.5degC after a (relatively) \r\nshort-term stabilization by the end of the 21st century. {4.6.2, 9.3.1.1, \r\n9.5.2.3, 9.5.3.3, 11.2.4, Cross-Chapter Box  11.1, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 12.1}"


id: d6eb3ea1cc5ad7bbabbcc7e4d9ab516d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35118
content:
"In this Report, scenario-based climate projections are translated \r\ninto GWLs by aggregating the ESM model response at specific \r\nGWLs across scenarios (see Figure TS.5 and Figure TS.6). The climate \r\nresponse pattern for the 20-year period around when individual \r\nsimulations reach a given GWL are averaged across all models and \r\nscenarios that reach that GWL. The best estimate and likely range \r\nof the timing of when a certain GWL is reached under a particular \r\nscenario (or 'GWL-crossing time'), however, is based not only on \r\nCMIP6 output, but on a combined assessment taking into account \r\nthe observed warming to date, CMIP6 output and additional lines \r\nof evidence (see Cross-Section Box TS.1). {4.3.4, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 11.1, Atlas.2, Interactive Atlas} "


id: 18b68ab4c2d8831988ee4850adf25f4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1567
content:
"Global warming levels are highly relevant as a dimension of \r\nintegration across scientific disciplines and socio-economic actors \r\nand are motivated by the long-term goal in the Paris Agreement \r\nof 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well \r\nbelow 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit \r\nthe temperature increase to 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels'. \r\nThe evolution of aggregated impacts with temperature levels has \r\nalso been widely used and embedded in the WGII assessment. \r\nThis includes the 'Reasons for Concern' (RFC) and other 'burning \r\nember' diagrams in IPCC WGII. The RFC framework has been further \r\nexpanded in SR1.5, SROCC and SRCCL by explicitly looking at the \r\ndifferential impacts between half-degree GWLs and the evolution of \r\nrisk for different socio-economic assumptions. {1.4.4, 1.6.2, 11.2.4, \r\n12.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Chapter Box 12.1}"


id: 379e023cd5309241b62ff9d165681638
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6994
content:
"Global warming levels are closely related to cumulative CO2 (and \r\nin some cases CO2-equivalent) emissions. This Report confirms the \r\nassessment of the WGI contribution to AR5 and SR1.5 that a near\u0002linear relationship exists between cumulative CO2 emissions and the "


id: 32ad1abe496727aa79eef46dec5382fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6181
content:
"as sub-continents and oceanic regions, or to typological regions, such \r\nas monsoon regions, coastlines, mountain ranges or cities, as used in \r\nSection TS.4. A new set of standard AR6 WGI reference regions has \r\nalso been included in this Report (Figure TS.6, bottom panels). {1.4.5, \r\n10.1, 11.9, 12.1-12.4, Atlas.1.3.3-1.3.4}"


id: 59ba718e59666ff85b3bdec3ec603d48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13027
content:
"Global and regional climate models are important sources of climate \r\ninformation at the regional scale. Since AR5, a more comprehensive \r\nassessment of past and future evolution of a range of climate variables \r\non a regional scale has been enabled by the increased availability \r\nof coordinated ensemble regional climate model projections and \r\nimprovements in the level of sophistication and resolution of \r\nglobal and regional climate models. This has been complemented \r\nby observational, attribution and sectoral-vulnerability studies \r\ninforming, for instance, about impact-relevant tolerance thresholds. \r\n{10.3.3, 11.9, 12.1, 12.3, 12.6, Atlas.3-Atlas.11}"


id: d3a077cc499929b2cc90cbbf5369f782
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34566
content:
"The AR6 WGI Report has an expanded focus on regional \r\ninformation supported by the increased availability of \r\ncoordinated regional climate model ensemble projections \r\nand improvements in the sophistication and resolution \r\nof global and regional climate models (high confidence). \r\nMultiple lines of evidence can be used to construct climate \r\ninformation on a global to regional scale and can be further \r\ndistilled in a co-production process to meet user needs (high \r\nconfidence). To better support risk assessment, a common \r\nrisk framework across all three Working Groups has been \r\nimplemented in AR6, and low-likelihood but high-impact \r\noutcomes are explicitly addressed in WGI by using physical \r\nclimate storylines (see Core Concepts Box). "


id: 70bc18b47491a2b16ff461ad4df5d6e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17094
content:
"From the multiple lines of evidence, climate information can be \r\ndistilled in a co-production process that involves users, related \r\nstakeholders and producers of climate information, considering the \r\nspecific context of the question at stake, the underlying values and \r\nthe challenge of communicating across different communities. The \r\nco-production process is an essential part of climate services, which \r\nare discussed in Section TS.4.1.2. {10.5, 12.6, Cross-Chapter Box 12.2}"


id: b10be833c551f2ec7a488cf726b5e87b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28378
content:
"Climatic impact-drivers are physical climate system \r\nconditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect \r\nan element of society or ecosystems. They are the WGI \r\ncontribution to the risk framing without anticipating \r\nwhether their impact provides potential opportunities \r\nor is detrimental (i.e., as for hazards). Many global and \r\nregional climatic impact-drivers have a direct relation to \r\nglobal warming levels (high confidence). {1.4.4, 1.5.2-1.5.4, \r\nCross-Chapter Box  1.3, 4.8, 10.1, 10.5.1, Box  10.2, Cross\u0002Chapter Box  10.3, 11.2.4, 11.9, Box  11.2, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox  11.1, 12.1-12.3, 12.6, Cross-Chapter Boxes 12.1 and \r\n12.2, Atlas.1.3.3-1.3.4, Atlas.1.4, Atlas.1.4.4}"


id: 24d7915b8ca3a0f755588131719dcaf5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3676
content:
"With the aim of informing decision-making at local or regional \r\nscales, a common risk framework has been implemented in AR6. \r\nMethodologies have been developed to construct more impact- and \r\nrisk-relevant climate change information tailored to regions and \r\nstakeholders. Physical storyline approaches are used in order to \r\nbuild climate information based on multiple lines of evidence, and \r\nwhich can explicitly address physically plausible, but low-likelihood, \r\nhigh-impact outcomes and uncertainties related to climate variability \r\nfor consideration in risk assessments (Figure TS.6). {Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 1.3, 4.8, Box 9.4, 10.5, Box 10.2, Box 11.2, 12.1-12.3, 12.6, \r\nGlossary}"


id: ecbeb341d2e941a59dc729605ef0f739
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39015
content:
"Climate change is a global phenomenon, but manifests differently \r\nin different regions. The impacts of climate change are generally \r\nexperienced at local, national and regional scales, and these are \r\nalso the scales at which decisions are typically made. Robust climate \r\nchange information is increasingly available at regional scales for \r\nimpact and risk assessments. Depending on the climate information \r\ncontext, geographical regions in AR6 may refer to larger areas, such "


id: 2c98593d56a33d38c59505bed3bd7ba7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5110
content:
"The climatic impact-driver framework developed in AR6 supports \r\nan assessment of changing climate conditions that are relevant \r\nfor sectoral impacts and risk assessment. Climatic impact-drivers \r\n(CIDs) are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, extremes, "


id: 7cefed6cdeaca6826c265c101e44446c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19173
content:
"events) that affect an element of society or ecosystems and are thus \r\na potential priority for providing climate information. For instance, \r\nthe heat index used by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric \r\nAdministration (NOAA HI) for issuing heat warnings is a CID index \r\nthat can be associated with adverse human health impacts due to \r\nheat stress (see Figure TS.6). Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and \r\ntheir changes can be detrimental (i.e., hazards in the risk framing), \r\nbeneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system \r\nelements, regions and sectors (aligning with WGII Sectoral Chapters \r\n2-8). Each sector is affected by multiple CIDs, and each CID affects \r\nmultiple sectors. Climate change has already altered CID profiles and \r\nresulted in shifting magnitude, frequency, duration, seasonality and \r\nspatial extent of associated indices (high confidence) (see regional \r\ndetails in Section TS.4.3). {12.1-12.4, Table 12.1, Table 12.2, Annex VI}"


id: f2d64c588b53ed62d6fd997bf23224e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40121
content:
"Many global- and regional-scale CIDs, including extremes, have \r\na direct relation to global warming levels (GWLs) and can thus inform \r\nthe hazard component of 'Representative Key Risks' and 'Reasons for \r\nConcern' assessed by AR6 WGII. These include heat, cold, wet and dry \r\nhazards, both mean and extremes; cryospheric hazards (snow cover, \r\nice extent, permafrost) and oceanic hazards (marine heatwaves) \r\n(high confidence) (Figure TS.6). Establishing links between specific \r\nGWLs with tipping points and irreversible behaviour is challenging \r\ndue to model uncertainties and lack of observations, but their \r\noccurrence cannot be excluded, and their likelihood of occurrence \r\ngenerally increases at greater warming levels (Box TS.1, Section TS.9).\r\n{11.2.4, Box 11.2, Cross-Chapter Boxes 11.1 and 12.1}"


id: a749b54ac5611bda656850075d49d8d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26650
content:
"Dataset innovations, particularly more comprehensive representation of polar regions, and the availability of new datasets have led \r\nto an assessment of increased global surface temperature change relative to the directly equivalent estimates reported in AR5. The \r\ncontribution of changes in observational understanding alone between AR5 and AR6 in assessing temperature changes from 1850-1900"


id: 4300c76c019af18dcce7cc724ab657e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8990
content:
"to 1986-2005 is estimated at 0.08 [-0.01 to 0.12] degC. Global surface temperature increased from 1850-1900 to 1995-2014 by 0.85 \r\n[0.69 to 0.95] degC, between 1850-1900 and the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) by 0.99 [0.84 to 1.20] degC, and to \r\nthe most recent decade (2011-2020) by 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] degC. Each of the last four decades has in turn been warmer than any decade \r\nthat preceded it since 1850. Temperatures have increased faster over land than over the ocean since 1850-1900, with warming to \r\n2011-2020 of 1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] degC over land and 0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] degC over the ocean. {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3}"


id: b8058598957df021cb55caf92a4d2198
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29588
content:
"Global surface temperature during the period 1850-1900 is used as an approximation for pre-industrial conditions for consistency \r\nwith AR5 and AR6 Special Reports, whilst recognizing that radiative forcings have a baseline of 1750 for the start of anthropogenic \r\ninfluences. It is likely that there was a net anthropogenic forcing of 0.0-0.3 Wm-2 in 1850-1900 relative to 1750 (medium confidence), \r\nand from the period around 1750 to 1850-1900, there was a change in global surface temperature of around 0.1degC (likely range \r\n-0.1 to +0.3degC, medium confidence), with an anthropogenic component of 0.0degC to 0.2degC (likely range, medium confidence). {Cross\u0002Chapter Box 1.2, 7.3.5}"


id: cc66ce1a0901a9224aef17ce620250da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33278
content:
"There is very high confidence that the CMIP6 model ensemble reproduces observed global surface temperature trends and variability \r\nsince 1850 with errors small enough to allow for detection and attribution of human-induced warming. The CMIP6 multi-model mean \r\nglobal surface warming between 1850-1900 and 2010-2019 is close to the best estimate of observed warming, though some CMIP6 \r\nmodels simulate a warming that is outside the assessed very likely observed range. {3.3.1}"


id: 75b47c2ebf706436a6dac9e72fe891ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17939
content:
"The AR6 assessment of future change in global surface temperature is, for the first time in an IPCC report, explicitly constructed by \r\ncombining new projections for the SSP scenarios with observational constraints based on past simulated warming as well as the AR6-\r\nupdated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. In addition, climate forecasts initialized from \r\nthe observed climate state have been used for the period 2019-2028. The inclusion of additional lines of evidence has reduced the \r\nassessed uncertainty ranges for each scenario (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Figure 1). {4.3.1, 4.3.4, Box 4.1, 7.5}"


id: 326126b072c5ff0c1be781752793762b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6117
content:
"It is more likely than not that under SSP1-1.9, global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 will remain below 1.6degC throughout \r\nthe 21st century, implying a potential temporary overshoot of 1.5degC global warming of no more than 0.1degC. If climate sensitivity lies \r\nnear the lower end of the assessed very likely range, crossing the 1.5degC warming level is avoided in scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 \r\n(medium confidence). Global surface temperature in any individual year, in contrast to the 20-year average, could by 2030 exceed \r\n1.5degC relative to 1850-1900 with a likelihood between 40% and 60%, across the scenarios considered here (medium confidence). \r\n(Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1) {4.3.4, 4.4.1, Box 4.1, 7.5}"


id: c8008389e0fbeda49a3afb0b3c502d8e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32494
content:
"During the 21st century, a 2degC increase in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 will be crossed under SSP5-8.5 and \r\nSSP3-7.0, is extremely likely to be crossed under SSP2-4.5, but is unlikely to be crossed under SSP1-2.6 and extremely unlikely to be \r\ncrossed under SSP1-1.9. For the mid-term period 2041-2060, this 2degC global warming level is very likely to be crossed under SSP5-8.5, \r\nlikely to be crossed under SSP3-7.0, and more likely than not to be crossed under SSP2-4.5. (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1) {4.3.4}"


id: 5359df918fe5f9c39b6f6da78752a02c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11936
content:
"Events of reduced and increased global surface temperature trends at decadal time scales will continue to occur in the 21st century \r\nbut will not affect the centennial-scale warming (very high confidence). If strong mitigation is applied from 2020 onward as reflected \r\nin SSP1-1.9, its effect on 20-year trends in global surface temperature would likely emerge during the near term (2021-2040), \r\nmeasured against an assumed non-mitigation scenario such as SSP3-7.0 or SSP5-8.5. All statements about crossing the 1.5degC level \r\nassume that no major volcanic eruption occurs during the near term (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1). {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, \r\n4.3.4, 4.4.1, 4.6.3, Box 4.1}"


id: f767b01341304278af1dd07d1bf6b67a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40903
content:
"Compared to 1850-1900, average global surface temperature over the period 2081-2100 is very likely to be higher by [1.0degC to \r\n1.8degC] in the low CO2 emissions scenario SSP1-1.9 and by [3.3degC to 5.7degC] in the high CO2 emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. For the \r\nscenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, the corresponding very likely ranges are [1.3degC to 2.4degC], [2.1degC to 3.5degC], and [2.8degC \r\nto 4.6degC], respectively. The uncertainty ranges for the period 2081-2100 continue to be dominated by the uncertainty in equilibrium \r\nclimate sensitivity and transient climate response (very high confidence) (Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1). {4.3.1, 4.3.4, 4.4.1, 7.5}"


id: 994e6728af37b8207c5085c568d21213
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24192
content:
"The CMIP6 models project a wider range of global surface temperature change than the assessed range (high confidence); furthermore, \r\nthe CMIP6 global surface temperature increase tends to be larger than that in CMIP5 (very high confidence). {4.3.1, 4.3.4, 4.6.2, 7.5.6}"


id: 5bd215d8ebfbd75f98cc79cdb8fa2900
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13414
content:
"Cross-Section Box TS.1, Table 1 | Assessment results for 20-year averaged change in global surface temperature based on multiple lines of \r\nevidence. The change is displayed in degC relative to the 1850-1900 reference period for selected time periods (first three rows), and as the first 20-year period during \r\nwhich the average global surface temperature change exceeds the specified level relative to the period 1850-1900 (last four rows). The entries give both the central \r\nestimate and, in parentheses, the very likely (5-95%) range. An entry n.c. means that the global warming level is not crossed during the period 2021-2100."


id: df719db71c84236b21567337d645fb15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36559
content:
"substantial reductions in global GHG emissions. Continued \r\nGHG emissions greatly increase the likelihood of potentially \r\nirreversible changes in the global climate system (Box TS.9), \r\nin particular with respect to the contribution of ice sheets \r\nto global sea level change (high confidence). {2.3, 3.8, 4.3, \r\n4.6, 4.7, 7.2-7.4, Cross-Chapter Box 7.1, 9.2-9.6}"


id: c502ef68f66f44548c86391e9363ba84
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31970
content:
"This section summarizes knowledge about observed and projected \r\nlarge-scale climate change (including variability and extremes), \r\ndrivers and attribution of observed changes to human activities. It \r\ndescribes observed and projected large-scale changes associated \r\nwith major components of the climate system: atmosphere, ocean \r\n(including sea level change), land, biosphere and cryosphere, and the \r\ncarbon, energy and water cycles. In each subsection, reconstructed \r\npast changes, observed and attributed recent changes, and projected \r\nnear- and long-term changes to mean climate, variability and \r\nextremes are presented, where possible, in an integrated way. See \r\nSection TS.1.3.1 for information on the scenarios used for projections."


id: 6777d95c9cbac966a9036f07faeb7841
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15470
content:
"Earth system model simulations of the historical period since 1850 \r\nare only able to reproduce the observed changes in key climate \r\nindicators when anthropogenic forcings are included (Figure TS.7). \r\nTaken together with numerous formal attribution studies across an \r\neven broader range of indicators and theoretical understanding, \r\nthis underpins the unequivocal attribution of observed warming of \r\nthe atmosphere, ocean, and land to human influence (Table TS.1). \r\n{2.3, 3.8}"


id: b46bf0b29f813c9c43268d6ac9bf3e04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28982
content:
"In addition to global surface temperature (Cross-Section Box \r\nTS.1), a wide range of indicators across all components of \r\nthe climate system are changing rapidly (Figure TS.7), with \r\nmany at levels unseen in millennia. The observed changes \r\nprovide a coherent picture of a warming world, many \r\naspects of which have now been formally attributed to \r\nhuman influence, and human influence on the atmosphere, \r\nocean, and land components of the climate system, taken \r\ntogether, is assessed as unequivocal for the first time in an \r\nIPCC assessment report (Table TS.1, Figure TS.7). "


id: c1b598acd9a718dd569fd3f64cf80743
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31382
content:
"19 Throughout this Technical Summary, 'main driver' means responsible for more than 50% of the change."


id: 4e219b880ad76ec89570d85c7df4f904
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11017
content:
"Table TS.1 | Assessment of observed changes in large-scale indicators of mean climate across climate system components and their attribution to human \r\ninfluence. The colour coding indicates the assessed confidence in/likelihood of the human contribution as a driver or main driver19 (main driver is specified in that case) where \r\navailable (see colour key). Otherwise, explanatory text is provided in cells with white background. The relevant chapter section with more detailed information is listed in each \r\ntable cell."


id: 2ccd000c217cafc9a73c1491296ac891
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5149
content:
"centuries to millennia. Furthermore, it is likely that at least one large \r\nvolcanic eruption will occur during the 21st century. Such an eruption \r\nwould reduce global surface temperature for several years, decrease \r\nland precipitation, alter monsoon circulation and modify extreme \r\nprecipitation, at both global and regional scales. {4.3, 4.7, 9.4, 9.6, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 4.1}"


id: 3c002979574c2371a18f14b41d0839ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7749
content:
"Future climate change across a range of atmospheric, cryospheric, \r\noceanic and biospheric indicators depends upon future emissions \r\npathways. Outcomes for a broad range of indicators increasingly \r\ndiverge through the 21st century across the different SSPs (Section \r\nTS.1.3.1, Figure TS.8). Due to the slow response of the deep ocean \r\nand ice sheets, this divergence continues long after 2100, and 21st \r\ncentury emissions choices will have implications for GMSL rise for "


id: 6f51079549eb7c2b8466537532e327fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16845
content:
"human influence is the main contributor to the observed increase \r\n(decrease) in the likelihood and severity of hot (cold) extremes (Table \r\nTS.2). The frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation events \r\nin the current climate will change with warming, with warm extremes \r\nbecoming more frequent (virtually certain), cold extremes becoming \r\nless frequent (extremely likely) and precipitation extremes becoming \r\nmore frequent in most locations (very likely). {9.6.4, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, \r\n11.6, 11.7, 11.8, 11.9, Box 9.2}"


id: e383647875608edb314506428de16797
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37320
content:
"Observational records show changes in a wide range of climate \r\nextremes that have been linked to human influence on the climate \r\nsystem (Table TS.2). In many cases, the frequency and intensity of \r\nfuture changes in extremes can be directly linked to the magnitude \r\nof future projected warming. Changes in extremes have been \r\nwidespread over land since the 1950s, including a virtually certain\r\nglobal increase in extreme air temperatures and a likely intensification \r\nin global-scale extreme precipitation. It is extremely likely that "


id: 8d851943f49593b620ea5f4355141bcd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22086
content:
"The total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) \r\nin 2019, relative to 1750, was 2.72 [1.96 to 3.48] W m-2\r\n(medium confidence) and has likely been growing at an \r\nincreasing rate since the 1970s. {2.2, 6.4, 7.2, 7.3}"


id: 98b6f1949e1d75ca50aa6450564a091b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24085
content:
"Since 1750, changes in the drivers of the climate system \r\nare dominated by the warming influence of increases in \r\natmospheric GHG concentrations and a cooling influence \r\nfrom aerosols, both resulting from human activities. In \r\ncomparison there has been negligible long-term influence \r\nfrom solar activity and volcanoes. Concentrations of CO2, \r\nmethane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased to \r\nlevels unprecedented in at least 800,000 years, and there \r\nis high confidence that current CO2 concentrations have not \r\nbeen experienced for at least 2 million years. Global mean \r\nconcentrations of anthropogenic aerosols peaked in the \r\nlate 20th century and have slowly declined since in northern \r\nmid-latitudes, although they continue to increase in South \r\nAsia and East Africa (high confidence). "


id: 24ebe9ec289c89cd93a6a279950086e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3685
content:
"Solar activity since 1900 was high but not exceptional compared to \r\nthe past 9000 years (high confidence). The average magnitude and \r\nvariability of volcanic aerosols since 1900 has not been unusual \r\ncompared to at least the past 2500 years (medium confidence). \r\nHowever, sporadic strong volcanic eruptions can lead to temporary \r\ndrops in global surface temperature lasting 2-5 years. {2.2.1, 2.2.2, \r\n2.2.8, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1}"


id: 3c834947c787a8a21f47f7de1e96eb18
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7836
content:
"Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have changed substantially \r\nover millions of years (Figure TS.1). Current levels of atmospheric \r\nCO2 have not been experienced for at least 2 million years (high "


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vector_id: 7910
content:
"Figure TS.9 | Changes in well-mixed greenhouse gas (WMGHG) concentrations and effective radiative forcing (EFR). The intent of this figure is to show that the \r\nchanges of the main drivers of climate system over the industrial period are exceptional in a long-term context. (a) Changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) from proxy records over the \r\npast 3.5 million years. (b) Changes in all three WMGHGs from ice core records over the Common Era. (c) Directly observed WMGHG changes since the mid-20th century. (d)\r\nEvolution of ERF and components since 1750. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the associated FAIR data table. {2.2, Figures 2.3, 2.4 and 2.10}"


id: d110c5b6052eed514c2cf1b6910465af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34134
content:
"confidence, Figure TS.9a). Over 1750-2019, CO2 increased by 131.6 \r\n+- 2.9 ppm (47.3%). The centennial rate of change of CO2 since 1850 \r\nhas no precedent in at least the past 800,000 years (Figure TS.9), \r\nand the fastest rates of change over the last 56 million years were \r\nat least a factor of four lower (low confidence) than over 1900-\r\n2019. Several networks of high-accuracy surface observations \r\nshow that concentrations of CO2 have exceeded 400 ppm, reaching \r\n409.9 (+- 0.3) ppm in 2019 (Figure TS.9c). The ERF from CO2 in 2019 \r\n(relative to 1750) was 2.16 Wm-2. {2.2.3, 5.1.2, 5.2.1, 7.3}"


id: c601757286f28607bb3d8d8a65233378
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32146
content:
"the late 20th century, with low confidence in the magnitude of \r\npost-2014 changes due to conflicting evidence (Section TS.3.1). \r\n{2.2.6, 6.2.1, 6.3.5, 6.4.1, 7.3.3}"


id: 2e469bfa46ae2818abc0dcde1bd966a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5415
content:
"By 2019, concentrations of CH4 reached 1866.3 (+- 3.3) ppb \r\n(Figure TS.9c). The increase since 1750 of 1137 +- 10 ppb (157.8%) far \r\nexceeds the range over multiple glacial-interglacial transitions of the \r\npast 800,000 years (high confidence). In the 1990s, CH4 concentrations \r\nplateaued, but started to increase again around 2007 at an average \r\nrate of 7.6 +- 2.7 ppb yr-1 (2010-2019; high confidence). There is high \r\nconfidence that this recent growth is largely driven by emissions \r\nfrom fossil fuel exploitation, livestock, and waste, with ENSO driving \r\nmulti-annual variability of wetland and biomass burning emissions. \r\nIn 2019, ERF from CH4 was 0.54 Wm-2. {2.2.3, 5.2.2, 7.3}"


id: d890b5a490187cc5bbb75f00a480c1b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35393
content:
"Since 1750, N2O increased by 62.0 +- 6.0 ppb, reaching a level of \r\n332.1 (+- 0.4) ppb in 2019. The increase since 1750 is of comparable \r\nmagnitude to glacial-interglacial fluctuations of the past \r\n800,000  years (Figure TS.9c). N2O concentration trends since 1980 \r\nare largely driven by a 30% increase in emissions from the expansion \r\nand intensification of global agriculture (high confidence). By 2019 \r\nits ERF was 0.21 W m-2. {2.2.3, 5.2.3}"


id: 20a79bda0ef865f8d07d2ee44cd22a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2971
content:
"The global mean abundance of hydroxyl (OH) radical, or 'oxidizing \r\ncapacity', chemically regulates the lifetimes of many SLCFs, and \r\ntherefore the radiative forcing of CH4, ozone, secondary aerosols \r\nand many halogenated species. Model estimates suggest no \r\nsignificant change in oxidizing capacity from 1850 to 1980 (low \r\nconfidence). Increases of about 9% over 1980-2014 computed by \r\nESMs and carbon cycle models are not confirmed by observationally \r\nconstrained inverse models, rendering an overall medium confidence\r\nin stable OH or positive trends since the 1980s, and implying that OH \r\nis not the primary driver of recent observed growth in CH4. {6.3.6, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 5.2}"


id: 13dfc001cd8cdb8b8054e4a9bc47927e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 711
content:
"Halogenated gases consist of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), \r\nhydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and \r\nother gases, many of which can deplete stratospheric ozone and \r\nwarm the atmosphere. In response to controls on production and \r\nconsumption mandated by the Montreal Protocol on Substances \r\nthat Deplete the Ozone Layer and its amendments, the atmospheric \r\nabundances of most CFCs have continued to decline since AR5. \r\nAbundances of HFCs, which are replacements for CFCs and HCFCs, \r\nare increasing (high confidence), though increases of the major HCFCs \r\nhave slowed in recent years. The ERF from halogenated components \r\nin 2019 was 0.41 Wm-2. {2.2.4, 6.3.4, 7.3.2}"


id: 43a5aad9027b868b3a611854aa2fbdce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9125
content:
"Land use and land-cover change exert biophysical and biogeochemical \r\neffects. There is medium confidence that the biophysical effects \r\nof land-use change since 1750, most notably the increase in \r\nglobal albedo, have had an overall cooling on climate, whereas \r\nbiogeochemical effects (i.e., changes in GHG and volatile organic \r\ncompound emissions or sinks) led to net warming. Overall land-use \r\nand land-cover ERF is estimated at -0.2 [-0.3 to -0.1] W m-2. {2.2.7, \r\n7.3.4, SRCCL Section 2.5}"


id: 228f2059cb97849796fe22830b9e0e7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3297
content:
"The total anthropogenic ERF in 2019 relative to 1750 was 2.72 [1.96 \r\nto 3.48] W m-2 (Figure TS.9), dominated by GHGs (positive ERF) and \r\npartially offset by aerosols (negative ERF). The rate of change of ERF \r\nlikely has increased since the 1970s, mainly due to growing CO2\r\nconcentrations and less negative aerosol ERF (Section TS.3.1). {2.2.8, \r\n7.3}"


id: 6e91fd4b65d1ac8f8402e55656f64e19
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16719
content:
"track in the Southern Hemisphere by 2100 under the high \r\nCO2 emissions scenarios. It is likely that the proportion of \r\nintense tropical cyclones has increased over the last four \r\ndecades and that this cannot be explained entirely by \r\nnatural variability. There is low confidence in observed \r\nrecent changes in the total number of extratropical cyclones \r\nover both hemispheres. The proportion of tropical cyclones \r\nthat are intense is expected to increase (high confidence), \r\nbut the total global number of tropical cyclones is expected \r\nto decrease or remain unchanged (medium confidence). \r\n{2.3, 3.3, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 8.3, 8.4, 11.7}"


id: d76ab4a50d95f3325b779063e84eb16e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35205
content:
"The effects of human-induced climate change have \r\nbeen clearly identified in observations of atmospheric \r\ntemperature and some aspects of atmospheric circulation, \r\nand these effects are likely to intensify in the future. \r\nTropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling are \r\nvirtually certain to continue with continued net emissions \r\nof greenhouse gases. Several aspects of the atmospheric \r\ncirculation have likely changed since the mid-20th century, \r\nand human influence has likely contributed to the observed \r\npoleward expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell \r\nand very likely contributed to the observed poleward shift \r\nof the Southern Hemisphere extratropical jet in summer. It \r\nis likely that the mid-latitude jet will shift poleward and \r\nstrengthen, accompanied by a strengthening of the storm "


id: af001605814bfda6782d3d19a3f3b016
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28032
content:
"The troposphere has warmed since at least the 1950s, and it is virtually \r\ncertain that the stratosphere has cooled. It is very likely that human\u0002induced increases in GHGs were the main driver of tropospheric \r\nwarming since 1979. It is extremely likely that anthropogenic \r\nforcing, both from increases in GHG concentrations and depletion of "


id: 83bbbb6a465eb7fc9d4c681bf3b9dd15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20322
content:
"stratospheric ozone due to ozone-depleting substances, was the main \r\ndriver of upper stratospheric cooling since 1979. It is very likely that \r\nglobal mean stratospheric cooling will be larger for scenarios with \r\nhigher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In the tropics, since at least \r\n2001 (when new techniques permit more robust quantification), the \r\nupper troposphere has warmed faster than the near-surface (medium \r\nconfidence) (Figure TS.10). There is medium confidence that most \r\nCMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the observed warming in \r\nthe upper tropical troposphere over the period 1979-2014, in part \r\nbecause they overestimate tropical SST warming. It is likely that \r\nfuture tropical upper tropospheric warming will be larger than at the \r\ntropical surface. {2.3.1, 3.3.1, 4.5.1}"


id: c71f2c5ebbbfd20edd50c386ffaabebb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32352
content:
"the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude jet is likely to shift poleward \r\nand strengthen under the SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to 1995-2014, \r\naccompanied by an increase in the SAM (Section TS.4.2.2). It is \r\nlikely that wind speeds associated with extratropical cyclones will \r\nstrengthen in the Southern Hemisphere storm track for SSP5-8.5. \r\nThere is low confidence in the potential role of Arctic warming and \r\nsea ice loss on historical or projected mid-latitude atmospheric \r\nvariability. {2.3.1, 3.3.3, 3.7.2, 4.3.3, 4.4.3, 4.5.1, 4.5.3, 8.2.2, 8.3.2, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 10.1}"


id: 4f7f674a654429b73b1a4aaa52896dfb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11273
content:
"The Hadley Circulation has likely widened since at least the 1980s, \r\npredominantly in the Northern Hemisphere, although there is only\r\nmedium confidence in the extent of the changes. This has been \r\naccompanied by a strengthening of the Hadley Circulation in the \r\nNorthern Hemisphere (medium confidence). It is likely that human \r\ninfluence has contributed to the poleward expansion of the zonal \r\nmean Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere since the 1980s, which \r\nis projected to further expand with global warming (high confidence). \r\nThere is medium confidence that the observed poleward expansion \r\nin the Northern Hemisphere is within the range of internal variability. \r\n{2.3.1, 3.3.3, 8.4.3}"


id: c6ec34d3b0dd63aedd147a2f1e496df9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32309
content:
"Previous IPCC reports largely focused their assessment on the projected very likely range of future surface warming and associated \r\nclimate change. However, a comprehensive risk assessment also requires considering the potentially larger changes in the physical \r\nclimate system that are unlikely or very unlikely but possible and potentially associated with the highest risks for society and \r\necosystems (Figure TS.6). Since AR5, the development of physical climate storylines of high warming has emerged as a useful approach \r\nfor exploring the future risk space that lies outside of the IPCC very likely range projections. {4.8}"


id: 798371c9c3565018f5658d8a241c2b8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18584
content:
"While there is medium confidence that the projected decline in the AMOC (Section TS.2.4) will not involve an abrupt collapse \r\nbefore 2100, such a collapse might be triggered by an unexpected meltwater influx from the Greenland Ice Sheet. If an AMOC collapse \r\nwere to occur, it would very likely cause abrupt shifts in the regional weather patterns and water cycle, such as a southward shift in the \r\ntropical rain belt, and could result in weakening of the African and Asian monsoons, strengthening of Southern Hemisphere monsoons, \r\nand drying in Europe. (See also Boxes TS.9 and TS.13). {4.7.2, 8.6.1, 9.2.3}"


id: a12532b1be069271ede19838481ea2f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25574
content:
"Very rare extremes and compound or concurrent events, such as the 2018 concurrent heatwaves across the Northern Hemisphere, are \r\noften associated with large impacts. The changing climate state is already altering the likelihood of extreme events, such as decadal \r\ndroughts and extreme sea levels, and will continue to do so under future warming. Compound events and concurrent extremes \r\ncontribute to increasing probability of low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes and will become more frequent with increasing global \r\nwarming (high confidence). Higher warming levels increase the likelihood of events unprecedented in the observational record. {9.6.4, \r\nBox 11.2}"


id: b8da84456a81a260b25e329fb164a047
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29726
content:
"Finally, low likelihood storylines need not necessarily relate solely to the human-induced changes in climate. A low-likelihood, high\u0002impact outcome, consistent with historical precedent in the past 2500 years, would be to see several large volcanic eruptions that \r\ncould greatly alter the 21st century climate trajectory compared to SSP-based Earth system model projections. {Cross-Chapter Box 4.1}"


id: cbfe735c658b21a422d9edc923a3e398
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33214
content:
"Global mean SST has increased since the beginning of the 20th \r\ncentury by 0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] degC, and it is virtually certain it will \r\ncontinue to increase throughout the 21st century, with increasing \r\nhazards to marine ecosystems (medium confidence). Marine \r\nheatwaves have become more frequent over the 20th century (high \r\nconfidence), approximately doubling in frequency (high confidence) \r\nand becoming more intense and longer since the 1980s (medium \r\nconfidence). Most of the marine heatwaves over 2006-2015 have \r\nbeen attributed to anthropogenic warming (very likely). Marine \r\nheatwaves will continue to increase in frequency, with a likely global \r\nincrease of 2-9 times in 2081-2100 compared to 1995-2014 under \r\nSSP1-2.6, and 3-15 times under SSP5-8.5 (Figure TS.11a), with \r\nthe largest changes in the tropical and Arctic ocean. {2.3.1, Cross\u0002Chapter Box 2.3, 9.2.1, Box 9.2, 12.4.8}"


id: e4116b8de7a16a90e56949c8addbda7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37427
content:
"Observed upper-ocean stratification (0-200 m) has increased \r\nglobally since at least 1970 (virtually certain). Based on recent refined \r\nanalyses of the available observations, there is high confidence\r\nthat it increased by 4.9 +- 1.5% from 1970-2018, which is about \r\ntwice as much as assessed in SROCC, and will continue to increase \r\nthroughout the 21st century at a rate depending on the emissions \r\nscenario (virtually certain). {2.3.3, 9.2.1}"


id: 3dc8d1edefa799e7babbb6cce84035aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8037
content:
"It is virtually certain that since 1950 near-surface high-salinity \r\nregions have become more saline, while low-salinity regions have \r\nbecome fresher, with medium confidence that this is linked to an \r\nintensification of the hydrological cycle (Box TS.6). It is extremely \r\nlikely that human influence has contributed to this salinity change \r\nand that the large-scale pattern will grow in amplitude over the 21st \r\ncentury (medium confidence). {2.3.3, 3.5.2, 9.2.2, 12.4.8}"


id: 4af5ea03e22cfba1b464d8bea62a6fb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10431
content:
"The amount of ocean warming observed since 1971 \r\nwill likely at least double by 2100 under a low warming \r\nscenario (SSP1-2.6) and will increase by 4-8 times under \r\na high warming scenario (SSP5-8.5). Stratification (virtually \r\ncertain), acidification (virtually certain), deoxygenation \r\n(high confidence) and marine heatwave frequency (high \r\nconfidence) will continue to increase in the 21st century. \r\nWhile there is low confidence in 20th century AMOC change, \r\nit is very likely that AMOC will decline over the 21st century \r\n(Figure TS.11). {2.3, 3.5, 3.6, 4.3.2, 5.3, 7.2, 9.2, Box 9.2, 12.4}"


id: 304a7e4fcd3b2efcf2e412f802e0c2b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5747
content:
"The AMOC was relatively stable during the past 8000 years (medium \r\nconfidence). There is low confidence in the quantification of AMOC \r\nchanges in the 20th century because of low agreement in quantitative \r\nreconstructed and simulated trends, missing key processes in both \r\nmodels and measurements used for formulating proxies, and new \r\nmodel evaluations. Direct observational records since the mid-2000s \r\nare too short to determine the relative contributions of internal \r\nvariability, natural forcing and anthropogenic forcing to AMOC \r\nchange (high confidence). An AMOC decline over the 21st century \r\nis very likely for all SSP scenarios (Figure TS.11b); a possible abrupt \r\ndecline is assessed further in Box TS.3. {2.3.3, 3.5.4, 4.3.2, 8.6.1, \r\n9.2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 12.3}"


id: 2e9160cffa3d8c1ffcf5146e9f6e316d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5472
content:
"There is high confidence that many ocean currents will change in \r\nthe 21st century in response to changes in wind stress. There is low \r\nconfidence in 21st century change of Southern Ocean circulation, \r\ndespite high confidence that it is sensitive to changes in wind \r\npatterns and increased ice-shelf melt. Western boundary currents \r\nand subtropical gyres have shifted poleward since 1993 (medium \r\nconfidence). Subtropical gyres, the East Australian Current Extension, \r\nthe Agulhas Current, and the Brazil Current are projected to intensify \r\nin the 21st century in response to changes in wind stress, while the \r\nGulf Stream and the Indonesian Throughflow are projected to weaken \r\n(medium confidence). All of the four main eastern boundary upwelling \r\nsystems are projected to weaken at low latitudes and intensify at high \r\nlatitudes in the 21st century (high confidence). {2.3.3, 9.2.3}"


id: 74772cfec6235ec7f2d0e9efa8356fc3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17726
content:
"become practically sea ice-free in late summer under high \r\nCO2 emissions scenarios by the end of the 21st century (high \r\nconfidence). It is virtually certain that further warming will \r\nlead to further reductions of Northern Hemisphere snow \r\ncover, and there is high confidence that this is also the case \r\nfor near-surface permafrost volume. "


id: a06196f162c06e0e9bac78beca93f2e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25428
content:
"Glaciers will continue to lose mass at least for several \r\ndecades even if global temperature is stabilized (very \r\nhigh confidence), and mass loss over the 21st century \r\nis virtually certain for the Greenland Ice Sheet and likely\r\nfor the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Deep uncertainty persists with \r\nrespect to the possible evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet \r\nwithin the 21st century and beyond, in particular due to the \r\npotential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. {2.3, \r\n3.4, 4.3, 8.3, 9.3-9.6, Box 9.4, 12.4}"


id: 6cc23f5dbffb5252bd99c1d8301d3d78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16414
content:
"Open-ocean deoxygenation and expansion of oxygen minimum zones \r\nhave been observed in many areas of the global ocean since the \r\nmid 20th century (high confidence), in part due to human influence \r\n(medium confidence). Deoxygenation is projected to continue to \r\nincrease with ocean warming (high confidence) (Figure TS.11c).\r\nHigher climate sensitivity and reduced ocean ventilation in CMIP6 \r\ncompared to CMIP5 results in substantially greater projections of\r\nsubsurface (100-600 m) oxygen decline than reported in SROCC for \r\nthe period 2080-2099. {2.3.3, 2.3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 2.4, 3.6.2, \r\n5.3.3, 12.4.8}"


id: 3bde02bca8807ace72ead3c1732f84e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7724
content:
"Over at least the last two decades, the geographic range of many \r\nmarine organisms has shifted towards the poles and towards greater \r\ndepths (high confidence), indicative of shifts towards cooler waters. \r\nThe range of a smaller subset of organisms has shifted equatorward \r\nand to shallower depths (high confidence). Phenological metrics \r\nassociated with the life cycles of many organisms have also \r\nchanged over the last two decades or longer (high confidence). \r\nSince the changes in the geographical range of organisms and their \r\nphenological metrics have been observed to differ with species \r\nand location, there is the possibility of disruption to major marine \r\necosystems. {2.3.4}"


id: bb2ae641e09cee3e0ecd719fdc3cac96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30146
content:
"For Antarctic sea ice, there is no significant trend in satellite-observed \r\nsea ice area from 1979 to 2020 in both winter and summer, due to \r\nregionally opposing trends and large internal variability. Due to \r\nmismatches between model simulations and observations, combined \r\nwith a lack of understanding of reasons for substantial inter-model \r\nspread, there is low confidence in model projections of future Antarctic \r\nsea ice changes, particularly at the regional level. {2.3.2, 3.4.1, 9.3.2}"


id: ef8ace48d06b9881f35cd994a2b1bc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39521
content:
"Over recent decades, widespread loss of snow and ice has \r\nbeen observed, and several elements of the cryosphere \r\nare now in states unseen in centuries (high confidence). \r\nHuman influence was very likely the main driver of \r\nobserved reductions in Arctic sea ice since the late 1970s \r\n(with late-summer sea ice loss likely unprecedented for at \r\nleast 1000 years) and the widespread retreat of glaciers \r\n(unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years, medium \r\nconfidence). Furthermore, human influence very likely \r\ncontributed to the observed Northern Hemisphere spring \r\nsnow cover decrease since 1950. "


id: 7404d91b6417925acf9111fe065cd7c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17652
content:
"In permafrost regions, increases in ground temperatures in the upper \r\n30 m over the past three to four decades have been widespread (high \r\nconfidence). For each additional 1degC of warming (up to 4degC above the \r\n1850-1900 level), the global volume of perennially frozen ground to \r\n3 m below the surface is projected to decrease by about 25% relative \r\nto the present volume (medium confidence). However, these decreases \r\nmay be underestimated due to an incomplete representation of \r\nrelevant physical processes in ESMs (low confidence). Seasonal snow \r\ncover is treated in Section TS.2.6. {2.3.2, 9.5.2, 12.4.9}"


id: 2b88d97a51ce5b4055f88541856059cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4913
content:
"By contrast, Antarctic sea ice area experienced no significant \r\nnet change since 1979, and there is only low confidence \r\nin its projected changes. The Arctic Ocean is projected to "


id: 525b181bea5d9ae6a5e6329dfdf23629
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11766
content:
"confidence). Mountain glaciers very likely contributed 67.2 [41.8 to \r\n92.6] mm to the observed GMSL change between 1901 and 2018. \r\nThis retreat has occurred at increased rates since the 1990s, with \r\nhuman influence very likely being the main driver. Under RCP2.6 and \r\nRCP8.5, respectively, glaciers are projected to lose 18% +- 13% and \r\n36% +- 20% of their current mass over the 21st century (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.3.2, 3.4.3, 9.5.1, 9.6.1}"


id: 83509de23554d963b884949ea5e3e451
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20232
content:
"of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, is assessed in Box TS.9. {2.3.2, 3.4.3, 9.4.1, \r\n9.4.2, 9.6.3, Atlas.11.2}"


id: ed9d3fd713823d009ab87799e55f7e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39163
content:
"GMSL change is driven by warming or cooling of the ocean (and the associated expansion/contraction) and changes in the amount \r\nof ice and water stored on land. Paleo-evidence shows that GMSL has been about 70 m higher and 130 m lower than present within \r\nthe past 55 million years and was likely 5 to 10 m higher during the Last Interglacial (Box TS.2, Figure 1). Sea level observations show \r\nthat GMSL rose by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m over the period 1901-2018 at an average rate of 1.7 [1.3 to 2.2] mm yr -1. New analyses \r\nand paleo-evidence since AR5 show this rate is very likely faster than during any century over at least the last three millennia (high \r\nconfidence). Since AR5, there is strengthened evidence for an increase in the rate of GMSL rise since the mid-20th century, with an \r\naverage rate of 2.3 [1.6-3.1] mm yr -1 over the period 1971-2018 increasing to 3.7 [3.2-4.2] mm yr -1 for the period 2006-2018 (high \r\nconfidence). {2.3.3, 9.6.1, 9.6.2}"


id: 4e00eae1c27faf44054f51ad4d66bfee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10984
content:
"GMSL will continue to rise throughout the 21st century (Box TS.4, Figure 1a). Considering only those processes in whose projections \r\nwe have at least medium confidence, relative to the period 1995-2014, GMSL is projected to rise between 0.18 m (0.15-0.23 m, \r\nlikely range; SSP1-1.9) and 0.23 m (0.20-0.30 m, likely range; SSP5-8.5) by 2050. By 2100, the projected rise is between 0.38 m \r\n(0.28-0.55 m, likely range; SSP1-1.9) and 0.77 m (0.63-1.01 m, likely range; SSP5-8.5) {Table 9.9}. The methods, models and scenarios \r\nused for sea level projections in the AR6 are updated from those employed by SROCC, with contributions informed by the latest \r\nmodel projections described in the ocean and cryosphere Sections (Sections TS.2.4 and TS.2.5). Despite these differences, the sea level \r\nprojections are broadly consistent with those of SROCC. {4.3.2, 9.6.3}"


id: 29435c490b52f75448843783f55bfb3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4477
content:
"Importantly, likely range projections do not include those ice-sheet-related processes whose quantification is highly uncertain \r\nor that are characterized by deep uncertainty. Higher amounts of GMSL rise before 2100 could be caused by earlier-than-projected \r\ndisintegration of marine ice shelves, the abrupt, widespread onset of marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and marine ice cliff instability \r\n(MICI) around Antarctica, and faster-than-projected changes in the surface mass balance and dynamical ice loss from Greenland \r\n(Box TS.4, Figure 1). In a low-likelihood, high-impact storyline and a high CO2 emissions scenario, such processes could in combination \r\ncontribute more than one additional meter of sea level rise by 2100 (Box TS.3). {4.3.2, 9.6.3, Box 9.4}"


id: 5d33855fba94753b3c23e19b4b492342
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13672
content:
"Looking at uncertainty in time provides an alternative perspective on uncertainty in future sea level rise (Box TS.4, Figure 1c). For \r\nexample, considering only medium confidence processes, GMSL rise is likely to exceed 0.5 m between about 2080 and 2170 under \r\nSSP1-2.6 and between about 2070 and 2090 under SSP5-8.5. Given the long-term commitment, uncertainty in the timing of reaching \r\ndifferent levels of GMSL rise is an important consideration for adaptation planning. {9.6.3}"


id: d02d069c5b89b33aad7b5db2362845b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33986
content:
"At regional scales, additional processes come into play that modify the local sea level change relative to GMSL, including vertical land \r\nmotion, ocean circulation and density changes, and gravitational, rotational, and deformational effects arising from the redistribution \r\nof water and ice mass between land and the ocean. These processes give rise to a spatial pattern that tends to increase sea level \r\nrise at the low latitudes and reduce sea level rise at high latitudes. However, over the 21st century, the majority of coastal locations \r\nhave a median projected regional sea level rise within +-20% of the projected GMSL change (medium confidence). Further details on \r\nregional sea level change and extremes are provided in Section TS.4. {9.6.3}"


id: da273b224c33c2647312fa56a8380627
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35677
content:
"The continued growth of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the industrial era is unequivocally due to emissions from \r\nhuman activities. Ocean and land carbon sinks slow the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Projections show that while \r\nland and ocean sinks absorb more CO2 under high emissions scenarios than low emissions scenarios, the fraction of \r\nemissions removed from the atmosphere by natural sinks decreases with higher concentrations (high confidence). \r\nProjected ocean and land sinks show similar responses for a given scenario, but the land sink has a much higher \r\ninterannual variability and wider model spread. The slowed growth rates of the carbon sinks projected for the second \r\nhalf of this century are linked to strengthening carbon-climate feedbacks and stabilization of atmospheric CO2 under \r\nmedium-to-no-mitigation and high-mitigation scenarios, respectively (see FAQ 5.1). {5.2, 5.4}"


id: 6054120579188c03620c074de21ab70f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14250
content:
"Carbon sinks for anthropogenic CO2 are associated with mainly physical ocean and biospheric land processes that drive the exchange \r\nof carbon between multiple land, ocean and atmospheric reservoirs. These exchanges are driven by increasing atmospheric CO2, but \r\nare modulated by changes in climate (Box TS.5, Figure 1c,d). The Northern and Southern Hemispheres dominate the land and ocean \r\nsinks, respectively (Box TS.5, Figure 1). Ocean circulation and thermodynamic processes also play a critical role in coupling the global \r\ncarbon and energy (heat) cycles. There is high confidence that this ocean carbon-heat nexus is an important basis for one of the \r\nmost important carbon-climate metrics, the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE; Section TS.3.2.1) used to \r\ndetermine the remaining carbon budget. {5.1, 5.2, 5.5, 9.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5.3}"


id: 9e5e6afc65f726ded2490d4ad0a41113
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25091
content:
"The ocean (high confidence) and land (medium confidence) sinks of CO2 have increased with anthropogenic emissions over the past \r\nsix decades (Box TS.5, Figure 1). This coherence between emissions and the growth in ocean and land sinks has resulted in the airborne \r\nfraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining at 44 +- 10% over the past 60 years (high confidence). Interannual and decadal variability of \r\nthe ocean and land sinks indicate that they are sensitive to changes in the growth rate of emissions as well as climate variability and \r\nare therefore also sensitive to climate change (high confidence). {5.2.1}"


id: 4bbf5612fd53b6833b2e73d44d7406ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10585
content:
"The land CO2 sink is driven by carbon uptake by vegetation, with large interannual variability, for example, linked to the El Nino-\r\nSouthern Oscillation (ENSO). Since the 1980s, carbon fertilization from rising atmospheric CO2 has increased the strength of the net \r\nland CO2 sink (medium confidence). During the historical period, the growth of the ocean sink has been primarily determined by \r\nthe growth rate of atmospheric CO2. However, there is medium confidence that changes to physical and chemical processes in the \r\nocean and in the land biosphere, which govern carbon feedbacks, are already modifying the characteristics of variability, particularly \r\nthe seasonal cycle of CO2, in both the ocean and land. However, changes to the multi-decadal trends in the sinks have not yet been \r\nobserved. {2.3.4, 3.6.1, 5.2.1}"


id: b711e20217ed4c4d115b0fdf36d63854
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29419
content:
"Climate change alone is expected to increase land carbon accumulation in the high latitudes (not including permafrost, which is \r\nassessed in Sections TS.2.5 and TS.3.2.2), but also to lead to a counteracting loss of land carbon in the tropics (medium confidence). \r\nEarth system model projections show that the overall uncertainty of atmospheric CO2 by 2100 is still dominated by the emissions \r\npathway, but carbon-climate feedbacks (see Section TS.3.3.2) are important, with increasing uncertainties in high emissions pathways \r\n(Box TS.5, Figure 1e). {4.3.2, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.4.4, 5.4.5, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 5.1, Cross-Chapter Box 5.3}"


id: 3379f504f8dfb7812435adb4b6b8ca68
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6307
content:
"Under three SSP scenarios with long-term extensions until 2300 (SSP5-8.5, SSP5-3.4-OS, SSP1-2.6), ESMs project a change of the \r\nland from a sink to a source (medium confidence). The scenarios make simplified assumptions about emissions reductions, with \r\nSSP1-2.6 and SSP5-3.4-OS reaching about 400 ppm by 2300, while SSP5-8.5 exceeds 2000 ppm. Under high emissions, the transition \r\nis warming-driven, whereas it is linked to the decline in atmospheric CO2 under net negative CO2 emissions. The ocean remains a sink \r\nthroughout the period to 2300 except under very large net negative emissions. The response of the natural aspects of the carbon cycle \r\nto carbon dioxide removal is further developed in Section TS.3.3.2. {5.4.9}"


id: 70e7c83be77ff952f66be6d810714257
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17129
content:
"and about 80% larger than warming of the ocean surface. Warming of \r\nthe land surface during the period 1971-2018 contributed about 5% \r\nof the increase in the global energy inventory (Section TS.3.1), nearly \r\ntwice the estimate in AR5 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that \r\nthe average surface warming over land will continue to be higher than \r\nover the ocean throughout the 21st century. The warming pattern \r\nwill likely vary seasonally, with northern high latitudes warming more \r\nduring winter than summer (medium confidence). {2.3.1, 4.3.1, 4.5.1, \r\n7.2.2, Box 7.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9.1, 11.3, Atlas 11.2}"


id: 4771e787d37a69e22a152c5230996864
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9782
content:
"Land surface air temperatures have risen faster than the \r\nglobal surface temperature since the 1850s, and it is virtually \r\ncertain that this differential warming will persist into the \r\nfuture. It is virtually certain that the frequency and intensity \r\nof hot extremes and the intensity and duration of heatwaves \r\nhave increased since 1950 and will further increase in the \r\nfuture even if global warming is stabilized at 1.5degC. The \r\nfrequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have \r\nincreased over a majority of those land regions with good \r\nobservational coverage (high confidence) and will extremely \r\nlikely increase over most land regions with additional global \r\nwarming. "


id: bf23dc1e3c2885054bef7fa69c80eac8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30903
content:
"The frequency and intensity of hot extremes (warm days and nights) \r\nand the intensity and duration of heatwaves have increased globally \r\nand in most regions since 1950, while the frequency and intensity \r\nof cold extremes have decreased (virtually certain). There is high \r\nconfidence that the increases in frequency and severity of hot \r\nextremes are due to human-induced climate change. Some recent \r\nextreme events would have been extremely unlikely to occur without \r\nhuman influence on the climate system. It is virtually certain that \r\nfurther changes in hot and cold extremes will occur throughout the \r\n21st century in nearly all inhabited regions, even if global warming \r\nis stabilized at 1.5degC (Table TS.2, Figure TS.12a). {1.3, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 3.2, 11.1.4, 11.3.2, 11.3.4, 11.3.5, 11.9, 12.4}"


id: 53e23df73575493fb46273a04428667d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12030
content:
"Over the past half century, key aspects of the biosphere \r\nhave changed in ways that are consistent with large\u0002scale warming: climate zones have shifted poleward, and \r\nthe growing season length in the Northern Hemisphere \r\nextratropics has increased (high confidence). The amplitude \r\nof the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 poleward of 45degN \r\nhas increased since the 1960s (very high confidence), with \r\nincreasing productivity of the land biosphere due to the \r\nincreasing atmospheric CO2 concentration as the main driver \r\n(medium confidence). Global-scale vegetation greenness has \r\nincreased since the 1980s (high confidence). {2.3, 3.6, 4.3, \r\n4.5, 5.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.9, 12.4}"


id: 6d78dd8f37a0c9db281c52c5dc5d1a58
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16527
content:
"Greater warming over land alters key water cycle characteristics \r\n(Box TS.6). The rates of change in mean precipitation and runoff, \r\nand their variability, increase with global warming (Figure TS.12e,f). \r\nHuman-induced climate change has contributed to increases in \r\nagricultural and ecological droughts in some regions due to increases \r\nin evapotranspiration (medium confidence). More regions are \r\naffected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts with \r\nincreasing global warming (high confidence; see also Figure TS.12c). "


id: 792f2e7edb2b39e7af78bb9a2a1f04b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18514
content:
"Observed temperatures over land have increased by 1.59 [1.34-\r\n1.83] degC between the period 1850-1900 and 2011-2020. Warming \r\nof the land is about 45% larger than for global surface temperature "


id: 253093ed0c1ff91bb68ebc85d3a5ee07
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3735
content:
"There is low confidence that the increase of plant water-use efficiency \r\ndue to higher atmospheric CO2 concentration alleviates extreme \r\nagricultural and ecological droughts in conditions characterized \r\nby limited soil moisture and increased atmospheric evaporative \r\ndemand. {2.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box  5.1, 8.2.3, 8.4.1, 11.2.4, 11.4, \r\n11.6, Box 11.1}"


id: 2d68fb8effcb0e08bc786f4756e2c383
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5274
content:
"Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover has decreased since at \r\nleast 1978 (very high confidence), and there is high confidence \r\nthat trends in snow cover loss extend back to 1950. It is very likely\r\nthat human influence contributed to these reductions. Earlier onset \r\nof snowmelt has contributed to seasonally dependent changes \r\nin streamflow (high confidence). A further decrease of Northern \r\nHemisphere seasonal snow cover extent is virtually certain under \r\nfurther global warming (Figure TS.12d). {2.3.2, 3.4.2, 8.3.2. 9.5.3, \r\n12.4, 9.2, 11.2, Atlas 8.2}"


id: c9e1a4d186ae9fa262ef4ca010738734
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32845
content:
"The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have \r\nincreased over a majority of land regions with good observational \r\ncoverage since 1950 (high confidence, Box TS.6, Table TS.2). Human \r\ninfluence is likely the main driver of this change (Table TS.2). It is \r\nextremely likely that on most land regions heavy precipitation will \r\nbecome more frequent and more intense with additional global \r\nwarming (Table TS.2, Figure TS.12b). The projected increase in heavy \r\nprecipitation extremes translates to an increase in the frequency and \r\nmagnitude of pluvial floods (high confidence) (Table TS.2). {Cross\u0002Chapter Box 3.2, 8.4.1, 11.4.2, 11.4.4, 11.5.5, 12.4}"


id: 16b81710622cceafe95811fc7a667fe1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1208
content:
"The probability of compound extreme events has likely increased \r\ndue to human-induced climate change. Concurrent heatwaves and \r\ndroughts have become more frequent over the last century, and this \r\ntrend will continue with higher global warming (high confidence). \r\nThe probability of compound flooding (storm surge, extreme \r\nrainfall and/or river flow) has increased in some locations and will \r\ncontinue to increase due to both sea level rise and increases in heavy \r\nprecipitation, including changes in precipitation intensity associated \r\nwith tropical cyclones (high confidence). {11.8.1, 11.8.2, 11.8.3}"


id: 52b8afed5ae2dcd88f610f96362b78e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11830
content:
"Human-caused climate change has driven detectable changes in the global water cycle since the mid-20th century (high \r\nconfidence), and it is projected to cause substantial further changes at both global and regional scales (high confidence). "


id: 8eefc2ae6a7f1d63d4ab57900362a70c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22335
content:
"Global land precipitation has likely increased since 1950, with a faster increase since the 1980s (medium confidence). \r\nAtmospheric water vapour has increased throughout the troposphere since at least the 1980s (likely). Annual global \r\nland precipitation will increase over the 21st century as global surface temperature increases (high confidence). \r\nHuman influence has been detected in amplified surface salinity and precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) patterns \r\nover the ocean (high confidence). "


id: de6b3ac4899d7287a6849e90d4784cd4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36398
content:
"The severity of very wet and very dry events increase in a warming climate (high confidence), but changes in \r\natmospheric circulation patterns affect where and how often these extremes occur. Water cycle variability and related \r\nextremes are projected to increase faster than mean changes in most regions of the world and under all emissions \r\nscenarios (high confidence). "


id: c9f32a1990533387dd24482c3c591b72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32856
content:
"Over the 21st century, the total land area subject to drought will increase and droughts will become more frequent \r\nand severe (high confidence). Near-term projected changes in precipitation are uncertain mainly because of internal \r\nvariability, model uncertainty and uncertainty in forcings from natural and anthropogenic aerosols (medium \r\nconfidence). "


id: 61c70cac0f6bb971b93222d28d79ce6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14491
content:
"Over the 21st century and beyond, abrupt human-caused changes to the water cycle cannot be excluded (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.3, 3.3, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9}"


id: ff0810565722a6a999a349bb40cc0dd9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42268
content:
"Land-use change and water extraction for irrigation have influenced local and regional responses in the water cycle (high confidence). \r\nLarge-scale deforestation likely decreases evapotranspiration and precipitation and increases runoff over the deforested regions \r\nrelative to the regional effects of climate change (medium confidence). Urbanization increases local precipitation (medium confidence) \r\nand runoff intensity (high confidence) (Box TS.14). Increased precipitation intensities have enhanced groundwater recharge, most \r\nnotably in tropical regions (medium confidence). There is high confidence that groundwater depletion has occurred since at least the \r\nstart of the 21st century, as a consequence of groundwater withdrawals for irrigation in agricultural areas in drylands. {8.2.3, 8.3.1, \r\n11.1.6, 11.4, 11.6, FAQ 8.1}"


id: 96b64628dccbaae392ef3adef733a58b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23718
content:
"The climate change that people will experience this century and beyond depends on our \r\ngreenhouse gases emissions, how much global warming this will cause and the\r\nresponse of the climate system to this warming."


id: f1140ec603e3c4c71cc46babd2ad21cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39792
content:
"Over short time scales (typically a decade), natural variability can temporarily dampen or accentuate global warming trends \r\nresulting from emissions."


id: 82356bcb52ac0a779988bfc816cd3d29
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20038
content:
"raphic TS.1 | Climate Futures. The intent of this figure is to show possible climate futures: The climate change that people will experience this century and beyond \r\nds on our greenhouse gas emissions, how much global warming this will cause and the response of the climate system to this warming."


id: 1bade65ed4f715ab619947be8a8ed4e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2055
content:
"(top left) Annual emissions of CO2 for the five core Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (very low: SSP1-1.9, low: SSP1-2.6, intermediate: SSP2-4.5, high: SSP3-7.0, \r\nvery high: SSP5-8.5).(bottom left) Projected warming for each of these emissions scenarios."


id: ba117cf079c35e0eab864f889d2cd894
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29958
content:
"Today, sea level has already \r\nincreased by 20 cm and \r\nwill increase an additional \r\n30 cm to 1 m or more by 2100, \r\ndepending on future emissions. "


id: e1cb1229b03a8a6922bfc1f1c4cd584a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37003
content:
"Sea level reacts very slowly to \r\nglobal warming so, once started, \r\nthe rise continues for thousands \r\nof years."


id: 96ce27ba1c9213de9e2c41f5999b76c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23733
content:
"The climate we and the young generations will experience depends on future emissions. \r\nReducing emissions rapidly will limit further changes, but continued emissions will trigger larger, \r\nfaster changes that will increasingly affect all regions. Some changes will persist for hundreds or \r\nthousands of years, so today's choices will have long-lasting consequences."


id: b94aa3c51855c14a4b7953d824e3dde3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29808
content:
"(top right) Response of some selected climate variables to four levels of global warming (degC). Changes in the 'Today' column are based on a global warming level of 1degC.\r\n(bottom right) The long-term effect of each global warming level on sea level. See Section TS.1.3.1 for more detail on the SSP climate change scenarios. \r\nThis infographic builds from several figures in the Technical Summary: Figure TS.4 (for top left panel), Figure TS.6 (bottom left), Figure TS.12 (top right) and Box TS.4, Figure 1b \r\n(bottom right)."


id: 5595bcc022857f918da8a58c1243d284
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12327
content:
"Since AR5, the accumulation of energy in the Earth system, \r\nquantified by observations of warming of the ocean, \r\natmosphere, and land and melting of ice, has become \r\nestablished as a robust measure of the rate of global climate \r\nchange on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Compared to \r\nchanges in global surface temperature, the increase in the \r\nglobal energy inventory exhibits less variability, and thus \r\nbetter indicates underlying climate trends. "


id: 88918af70c05eff3afea52e22f544d7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21193
content:
"This section summarizes advances in our knowledge of Earth's \r\nenergy budget, including the time evolution of forcings and climate \r\nfeedbacks that lead to the climate system responses summarized \r\nin Section TS.2. It assesses advances since AR5 and SR1.5 in the \r\nestimation of remaining carbon budgets, the Earth system response to \r\ncarbon dioxide removal, and the quantification of metrics that allow \r\ncomparisons of the relative effects of different forcing agents. The \r\nsection also highlights: future climate and air pollution responses due \r\nto projected changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs); the state \r\nof understanding of the climate response to potential interventions \r\nrelated to solar radiation modification (SRM); and irreversibility, \r\ntipping points and abrupt changes in the climate system."


id: 98715c84ed97e7f9ef881aad425d5f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24031
content:
"The global energy inventory increased by 282 [177 to \r\n387] zettajoules (ZJ, equal to 1021 Joules) for the period \r\n1971-2006 and 152 [100 to 205] ZJ for the period 2006-\r\n2018 (Figure TS.13), with more than 90% accounted for "


id: e8bd26d205c0f170c4860ed4e67f4cb7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38293
content:
"by ocean warming. To  put these numbers in context, the \r\n2006-2018 average Earth energy imbalance is equivalent \r\nto approximately 20 times the annual rate of global energy \r\nconsumption in 2018. The accumulation of energy is driven \r\nby a positive total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing \r\n(ERF) relative to 1750. "


id: 5242bba7b634bc40f5a1394d0cc04e02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11748
content:
"estimates of the global energy imbalance, and closure of the global \r\nsea level budget have led to a strengthened assessment relative \r\nto AR5. (high confidence) {7.2.2, 7.5.2.3, Box 7.2, Table 7.1, 9.6.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 9.1, Table 9.5}"


id: 323360e4f5bbbf0b0a61ef9c5d1bd7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6086
content:
"As in AR5, the perturbations to Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy \r\nbudget are quantified using ERFs (see also Section TS.2.2). These \r\ninclude any consequent adjustments to the climate system (e.g., \r\nfrom changes in atmospheric temperatures, clouds and water vapour \r\nas shown in Figure TS.14), but exclude any surface temperature \r\nresponse. Since AR5, ERFs have been estimated for a larger number \r\nof forcing agents and shown to be more closely related to the \r\ntemperature response than the stratospheric-temperature-adjusted \r\nradiative forcing. (high confidence) {7.3.1}"


id: e18c34a0d1a8f453b413dd48c9df94ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36953
content:
"Improved quantifications of ERF, the climate system radiative \r\nresponse, and the observed energy increase in the Earth system \r\nfor the period 1971-2018 demonstrate improved closure of the \r\nglobal energy budget relative to AR5 (Figure TS.13). Combining \r\nthe likely range of ERF over this period with the central estimate \r\nof radiative response gives an expected energy gain of 340 [47 to \r\n662] ZJ. Both estimates are consistent with an independent \r\nobservation-based assessment of the global energy increase of \r\n284 [96 to 471] ZJ (very likely range), expressed relative to the \r\nestimated 1850-1900 Earth energy imbalance. (high confidence) \r\n{7.2.2, 7.3.5, Box 7.2}"


id: 1450cf56e0a8387ed2a070b9bf030bc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 792
content:
"The global energy inventory change for the period 1971-2006 \r\ncorresponds to an Earth energy imbalance (Box TS.1) of 0.50 [0.32 \r\nto 0.69] W m-2, increasing to 0.79 [0.52 to 1.06] W m-2 for the period \r\n2006-2018. Ocean heat uptake is by far the largest contribution and \r\naccounts for 91% of the total energy change. Land warming, melting \r\nof ice and warming of the atmosphere account for about 5%, 3% and \r\n1% of the total change, respectively. More comprehensive analysis of \r\ninventory components, cross-validation of satellite and in situ-based "


id: 3dfa4330016eafe06df3d1c64444fd90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8072
content:
"The assessed greenhouse gas ERF over the 1750-2019 period \r\n(Section TS.2.2) has increased by +0.59 W  m-2 over AR5 estimates \r\nfor 1750-2011. This increase includes +0.34 W m-2 from increases in \r\natmospheric concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (including \r\nhalogenated species) since 2011, +0.15 W m-2 from upwards revisions \r\nof their radiative efficiencies and +0.10 W m-2 from re-evaluation of \r\nthe ozone and stratospheric water vapour ERF. {7.3.2, 7.3.4, 7.3.5}"


id: cffd977725ed93f42abef112fa173688
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33946
content:
"Figure TS.14 | Schematic representation of changes in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation budget following a perturbation. The intent of this figure is to \r\nillustrate the concept of adjustments in the climate system following a perturbation in the radiation budget. The baseline TOA energy budget (a) responds instantaneously to \r\nperturbations (b), leading to adjustments in the atmospheric meteorology and composition and land surface that are independent of changes in surface temperature (c). Surface \r\ntemperature changes (here using an increase as an example) lead to physical, biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedback processes (d). Long-term feedback processes, such \r\nas those involving ice sheets, are not shown here. {adapted from Figure 7.2; FAQ 7.2, Figure 1; and Figure 8.3}"


id: a4bd8b0ea580d38eb497769543d192d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26202
content:
"emissions make the dominant contribution to the ERF from aerosol-\r\ncloud interactions (high confidence). Over the 1750-2019 period, \r\nthe contributions from the emitted compounds to global surface \r\ntemperature changes broadly match their contributions to the ERF \r\n(high confidence) (Figure TS.15b). Since a peak in emissions-induced \r\nSO2 ERF has already occurred recently (Section TS.2.2) and since there \r\nis a delay in the full global surface temperature response owing to \r\nthe thermal inertia in the climate system, changes in SO2 emissions \r\nhave a slightly larger contribution to global surface temperature \r\nchange compared with changes in CO2 emissions, relative to their \r\nrespective contributions to ERF. {6.4.2, 7.3.2}"


id: 510218741f93cbb4af527466632486d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11532
content:
"For CO2, CH4, N2O, and chlorofluorocarbons, there is now evidence to \r\nquantify the effect on ERF of tropospheric adjustments. The assessed \r\nERF for a doubling of CO2 compared to 1750 levels (3.9 +- 0.5 Wm-2) is \r\nlarger than in AR5. For CO2, the adjustments include the physiological \r\neffects on vegetation. The reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases \r\n(CH4, N2O, and halocarbons) cause additional chemical adjustments \r\nto the atmosphere through changes in ozone and aerosols (Figure \r\nTS.15a). The ERF due to CH4 emissions is 1.19 [0.81 to 1.58] W m-2, of \r\nwhich 0.35 [0.16 to 0.54] W m-2 is attributed to chemical adjustments \r\nmainly via ozone. These chemical adjustments also affect the \r\nemissions metrics (Section TS.3.3.3). Changes in sulphur dioxide (SO2) "


id: 841ad24b9be008ff9a9ab824dd5b05c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20400
content:
"evolves and global surface temperature increases, leading to an ECS \r\nthat is higher than was inferred in AR5 based on warming over the \r\ninstrumental record (high confidence). Historical surface temperature \r\nchange since 1870 has shown relatively little warming in several key \r\nregions of positive feedbacks, including the eastern equatorial Pacific \r\nOcean and the Southern Ocean, while showing greater warming \r\nin key regions of negative feedbacks, including the western Pacific \r\nwarm pool. Based on process understanding, climate modelling, and \r\npaleoclimate reconstructions of past warm periods, it is expected \r\nthat future warming will become enhanced over the eastern Pacific \r\nOcean (medium confidence) and Southern Ocean (high confidence) \r\non centennial time scales. This new understanding, along with \r\nupdated estimates of historical temperature change, ERF, and energy \r\nimbalance, reconciles previously disparate ECS estimates. {7.4.4, \r\n7.5.2, 7.5.3}"


id: caa759554760b4781b5e74041f5623e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32993
content:
"The AR6 best estimate of ECS is 3degC, the likely range is 2.5degC to \r\n4degC and the very likely range is 2degC to 5degC. There is a high level \r\nof agreement among the four main lines of evidence listed above \r\n(Figure TS.16b), and altogether it is virtually certain that ECS is larger \r\nthan 1.5degC, but currently it is not possible to rule out ECS values \r\nabove 5degC. Therefore, the 5degC upper end of the very likely range is \r\nassessed with medium confidence and the other bounds with high \r\nconfidence. {7.5.5}"


id: 2cc83431af5fae8d830f0a6e0abdd83a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5147
content:
"Since AR5, substantial quantitative progress has been \r\nmade in combining new evidence of Earth's climate \r\nsensitivity with improvements in the understanding and \r\nquantification of Earth's energy imbalance, the instrumental \r\nrecord of global surface temperature change, paleoclimate \r\nchange from proxy records, climate feedbacks and their \r\ndependence on time scale and climate state. A key advance \r\nis the broad agreement across these multiple lines of \r\nevidence, supporting a best estimate of equilibrium climate \r\nsensitivity of 3degC, with a very likely range of 2degC to 5degC. The \r\nlikely range of 2.5degC to 4degC is narrower than the AR5 likely \r\nrange of 1.5degC to 4.5degC. {7.4, 7.5}"


id: b28a0e388b62ed573e0bfbeb2d9b91a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28651
content:
"Based on process understanding, warming over the instrumental \r\nrecord, and emergent constraints, the best estimate of TCR is 1.8degC, \r\nthe likely range is 1.4degC to 2.2degC and the very likely range is 1.2degC to \r\n2.4degC. There is a high level of agreement among the different lines of \r\nevidence (Figure TS.16c) (high confidence). {7.5.5}"


id: ba20d4b125584990f7b4ef83860e2c0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29971
content:
"Constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient \r\nclimate response (TCR) (see Glossary) are based on four main lines \r\nof evidence: feedback process understanding, climate change and \r\nvariability seen within the instrumental record, paleoclimate evidence, \r\nand so-called 'emergent constraints', whereby a relationship \r\nbetween an observable quantity and either ECS or TCR established \r\nwithin an ensemble of models is combined with observations to \r\nderive a constraint on ECS or TCR. In reports up to and including \r\nthe IPCC Third Assessment Report, ECS and TCR derived directly \r\nfrom ESMs were the primary line of evidence. However, since AR4, \r\nhistorical warming and paleoclimates provided useful additional \r\nevidence (Figure TS.16a). This Report differs from previous reports in \r\nnot directly using climate model estimates of ECS and TCR in the \r\nassessed ranges of climate sensitivity. {1.5, 7.5}"


id: e78110d07519af20858885fddecadff7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38036
content:
"Uncertainties regarding the true value of ECS and TCR are the dominant \r\nsource of uncertainty in global temperature projections over the \r\n21st century under moderate to high GHG concentrations scenarios. \r\nFor scenarios that reach net zero CO2 emissions (Section TS.3.3), the \r\nuncertainty in the ERF values of aerosol and other SLCFs contribute \r\nsubstantial uncertainty in projected temperature. Global ocean heat \r\nuptake is a smaller source of uncertainty in centennial warming. {7.5.7}"


id: 23dc25549ce7068f817aad6bb57d6400
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3493
content:
"It is now clear that when estimating ECS and TCR, the dependence \r\nof feedbacks on time scales and the climate state must be accounted \r\nfor. Feedback processes are expected to become more positive \r\noverall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on \r\nmulti-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming "


id: 33ac3a63f3878bd5c7dbe7cb0a58238f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6335
content:
"of TCR. Beyond this century, there is low confidence that the TCRE \r\nalone remains an accurate predictor of temperature changes in \r\nscenarios of very low or net negative CO2 emissions because of \r\nuncertain Earth system feedbacks that can result in further changes \r\nin temperature or a path dependency of warming as a function of \r\ncumulative CO2 emissions. {4.6.2, 5.4, 5.5.1}"


id: f1f324516e5de8f0ecb231ddbc387d33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39955
content:
"The transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) \r\nis the ratio between globally averaged surface temperature increase \r\nand cumulative CO2 emissions (see Glossary). This Report reaffirms \r\nwith high confidence the finding of AR5 that there is a near-linear \r\nrelationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and the increase in \r\nglobal average temperature caused by CO2 over the course of this \r\ncentury for global warming levels up to at least 2degC relative to 1850-\r\n1900. The TCRE falls likely in the 1.0degC-2.3degC per 1000 PgC range, \r\nwith a best estimate of 1.65degC per 1000 PgC. This is equivalent to a \r\n0.27degC-0.63degC range with a best estimate of 0.45degC when expressed \r\nin units per 1000 GtCO2. This range is about 15% narrower than the \r\n0.8deg-2.5degC per 1000 PgC assessment of AR5 because of a better \r\nintegration of evidence across chapters, in particular the assessment "


id: ada80b0505edda1f104334c64ddb75ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27791
content:
"The combined effect of all climate feedback processes is to amplify \r\nthe climate response to forcing (virtually certain). While major \r\nadvances in the understanding of cloud processes have increased \r\nthe level of confidence and decreased the uncertainty range for the "


id: d2cc4b90f26dd08876c28ae76b3091a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34435
content:
"20 For reference, the Planck temperature response for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is approximately 1.2degC at equilibrium."


id: 98f517e72f98b0299bc91da0fefa6537
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24125
content:
"cloud feedback by about 50% compared to AR5, clouds remain the \r\nlargest contribution to overall uncertainty in climate feedbacks (high \r\nconfidence). Uncertainties in the ECS and other climate sensitivity \r\nmetrics, such as the TCR and TCRE, are the dominant source of \r\nuncertainty in global temperature projections over the 21st century \r\nunder moderate to high GHG emissions scenarios. CMIP6 models \r\nhave higher mean values and wider spreads in ECS and TCR than the \r\nassessed best estimates and very likely ranges within this Report, \r\nleading the models to project a range of future warming that is \r\nwider than the assessed future warming range (Section TS.2.2). {7.1, \r\n7.4.2, 7.5}"


id: 579916130db6ab3dae6d10c642683da9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12676
content:
"Natural sources and sinks of non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as \r\nmethane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) respond both directly and \r\nindirectly to atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change, \r\nand thereby give rise to additional biogeochemical feedbacks \r\nin the climate system. Many of these feedbacks are only partially \r\nunderstood and are not yet fully included in ESMs. There is medium \r\nconfidence that the net response of natural ocean and land CH4 and \r\nN2O sources to future warming will be increased emissions, but the \r\nmagnitude and timing of the responses of each individual process is \r\nknown with low confidence. {5.4.7}"


id: ef7398c8d72c43045d34c737fba947ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39502
content:
"Non-CO2 biogeochemical feedbacks induced from changes in \r\nemissions, abundances or lifetimes of SLCFs mediated by natural \r\nprocesses or atmospheric chemistry are assessed to decrease \r\nECS (Figure TS.17b). These non-CO2 biogeochemical feedbacks \r\nare estimated from ESMs, which since AR5 have advanced to \r\ninclude a consistent representation of biogeochemical cycles and \r\natmospheric chemistry. However, process-level understanding \r\nof many biogeochemical feedbacks involving SLCFs, particularly \r\nnatural emissions, is still emerging, resulting in low confidence in \r\nthe magnitude and sign of the feedbacks. The central estimate of \r\nthe total biogeophysical and non-CO2 biogeochemical feedback is \r\nassessed to be -0.01 [-0.27 to +0.25] W m-2 degC-1 (Figure TS.17a). \r\n{5.4.7, 5.4.8, 6.2.2, 6.4.5, 7.4, Table 7.10}"


