# document

id: 46aa1fa540043c0caf658736f7ecf4b1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9637
content:
"Since AR5, the use of different and updated oceanographic data sets \r and increase in the number of ensembles of the CMIP5 simulations \r (Kay et al. 2014) has improved the overall detection and attribution of \r human influence. Together these measures increase the coherence of \r the simulations and reduce noise. For example, an isotherm approach \r used to reduce the noise from the displacement of isotherms in the \r upper water column allowing detection in each of the mid-latitude \r ocean basins was achieved on 60-year time series (Weller et al. 2016). \r Using all the available ocean temperature and salinity profiles from \r the Southern Ocean, Swart et al. (2018) show that the warming and \r freshening patterns were consistent primarily with increased human \r induced greenhouse gases and secondarily from ozone depletion in \r the stratosphere, but inconsistent with internal variability. Together \r the evidence from the AR5, and the discussion above with the new \r [...]"


id: 33b01effc5bfea0a9a34cc8186a4f5b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6340
content:
"[...] evidence on regional scales across the global oceans, we conclude that \r the observed long-term upper ocean temperature changes are very \r likely to have a substantial contribution from anthropogenic forcing."


id: d9fcf95c3d6da20c4d47d508496c971c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35654
content:
"Large-scale patterns of natural variability at interannual to decadal \r time scales can mask the long-term warming trend in the upper \r 700 m, particularly in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans (England \r et al. 2014; Liu et al. 2016) and in the north Atlantic (Buckley and \r Marshall, 2015). The most significant upper 700 m warming between \r five-year averages centered on 2007-2015 occurred in a large \r extratropical band of the Southern Hemisphere between 30oS-60oS, \r and in the tropical Indian Ocean, the eastern North Pacific and western \r subtropical north Atlantic (Figure 5.2d). Warming of the southern \r hemisphere subtropical gyres is driven, in part, by an intensification of \r Southern Ocean winds in recent decades, facilitating the penetration \r of heat to deeper depths (Gao et al. 2018). Marginal seas, such as the \r Mediterranean and Red seas have also exhibited notable warming. \r Conversely, over this timeframe there were also regions of cooling \r [...]"


id: 7a39bc6fa181604547e3b326544e7edb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18698
content:
"[...] in the upper 700 m, notably in the north Atlantic around 40oN-60oN \r and in the western tropical Pacific (Figure 5.2d). Recent relatively \r cold and fresh surface and subsurface conditions in the north Atlantic \r have been attributed to anomalous atmospheric forcing (Josey et al. \r 2018) or weakened transport by the north Atlantic Current and \r AMOC (Smeed et al. 2018), and in turn may have contributed to an \r intensification of deep convection in the Labrador Sea since 2012 \r (Yashayaev and Loder, 2017). All these observed decadal changes \r can be related to internal decadal variability (Robson et  al. 2014; "


id: 41896c4404e7c2e385bc40963eb2b31c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8721
content:
"Extension (Terada and Minobe, 2018) or a small decrease such as for the \r Indonesian Throughflow (Sen Gupta et al. 2016); many predominantly \r wind-driven current-system transports are expected to exhibit smaller \r than 20% changes by 2100 with RCP8.5 forcing. Climate-change \r induced changes of the circulation in other mid-latitude basins \r may be difficult to detect or reliably project because of significant \r natural variability at inter-annual (e.g., El Nino) to decadal (e.g., the \r Pacific Decadal Oscillation) timescales. The Antarctic Circumpolar \r Current is projected to be subject to strengthening westerly winds \r and substantially reduced rates of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) \r formation, as assessed in the Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3. The \r heat transported by the buoyancy-loss driven AMOC, in particular, \r contributes to the relatively clement climate of northern Europe and \r the north Atlantic Basin as a whole, although the wind-driven ocean \r [...]"


id: a927afbbe63ce2d1ce8214269fe44e3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26981
content:
"[...] gyres also contribute to the meridional ocean heat transport (see the \r review by Buckley and Marshall (2015)). As a result, there is a concern \r that significant changes in ocean circulation could lead to localised \r climate changes that are much larger than the global mean. Projected \r and observed changes in the AMOC and the rates of formation of deep \r water-masses in the north Atlantic are discussed in Chapter 6.7.1, \r along with the possibility of abrupt or enduring changes resulting from \r forcing by Greenlandic meltwater. A significant reduction in AMOC \r would, in turn, modestly weaken the Gulf Stream transport, which also \r has a substantial wind driven component (Frajka-Williams et al. 2016). \r Most aspects of the large-scale wind-driven ocean circulation are very \r likely to be qualitatively similar to the circulation in the present day, \r with only modest changes in transports and current location."


id: b0e940087fec7ab772f17d0e2b53ca87
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28353
content:
"intensified warming and near-surface freshening at high latitudes \r leading to a projection of more intense near-surface stratification \r (the downward-increasing vertical gradient of density) across all \r ocean basins (Figures 5.3 and 5.5) is a robust result with a high\r agreement across successive generations of coupled climate models \r (Capotondi et  al. 2012; Bopp et  al. 2013). Based on the projected \r changes from individual models between 1986-2005 and 2081-\r 2100, the mean stratification of the upper 200 m averaged between \r 60oS-60oN, normalised by the ensemble mean value from 1986-2005 \r will very likely increase by between 1.0-9.3% (with 95% confidence \r and a CMIP5 median change of 2.6%) for RCP2.6, and by between \r 12.2-30.0% (median value 21.2%) for RCP8.5. Inferences from \r oceanic observations (Good et  al. 2013) suggest that the 20-year \r mean stratification averaged between 60oS-60oN and over the top \r 200 m very likely increased by between 2.18-2.42% from 1971-1990 \r [...]"


id: 1bd46b4bdeec75281372ef6ed0d6e045
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2079
content:
"[...] to 1998-2017. By contrast, the bottom intensified warming in the \r abyss (see Figure 5.4) which is consistent with a slowing in the \r rate of AABW formation, is also associated with a reduction in \r the abyssal stratification of the ocean (Lyman and Johnson, 2014; \r Desbruyeres et al. 2016b). Both of these changes have consequences \r for the evolving turbulence and ocean water-mass structure. Based \r on observational evidence, theoretical understanding and robust \r ESM projections, it is very likely that stratification in the upper few \r hundred meters of the ocean below the mixed layer will increase \r significantly in the 21st century over most ocean basins as a result of \r climate change, and abyssal stratification will likely decrease."


id: cb65dc6be66f6e18b0a7f1880d2c0202
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33114
content:
"Masuda et al. 2010; Spence et al. 2017). AABW has shown variability in \r properties and production rates over the past half century (Purkey and \r Johnson, 2013; Menezes et al. 2017). A slowdown in AABW formation \r rates may arise from freshening of shelf waters, changes in local \r winds driving cross shelf mixing, or larger scale dynamics controlling \r the spin up or down of Southern Ocean gyres influencing the density \r of outflowing waters over deep sills. Large-scale circulation changes \r can also alter the properties of the ambient water that is entrained as \r dense water descends along the Antarctic continental slopes (Spence \r et al. 2017). Evolving AABW properties may also reflect changes in \r deep Southern Ocean convection. The Weddell Polynya is a large \r opening in the wintertime ice of the Weddell Sea that is kept ice-free \r despite intense heat loss to the atmosphere by convective mixing \r bringing up warm and salty water from the deep ocean. (See Box 3.2 \r [...]"


id: a8b2eccef5026b0700feb6fd2f7217fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26885
content:
"[...] for a more extensive discussion of polynyas and the Weddell Polynya \r in particular). The Weddell Polynya was present in three of the \r first years of infrared satellite observations of wintertime sea ice \r concentrations in the mid-1970s, but it has been closed since 1976, \r only to reopen in 2016 and 2017. The prominent Weddell Polynya in \r the mid-1970s greatly increased the volume of the coldest waters \r in the deep Weddell Sea. Weddell Polynyas are documented to drive \r abyssal cold and salty signals and can spread thermal signals as waves \r further and faster than could be explained by slow advective signals \r (Martin et al. 2015; Zanowski and Hallberg, 2017); these waves do \r not directly heat individual water parcels, but instead warm the ocean \r where they cause the coldest deep layers to spread laterally and thin. \r However, recovery from the large Weddell polynya of the early 1970s \r can only explain about 20% of the observed abyssal warming trend \r [...]"


id: 2307844dc0bf91701e5cc0d3d7554921
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3358
content:
"(Muller, 2012; Schindelegger et al. 2018). Several recent studies have \r analysed historical coastal tide gauge data and found amplitude trends \r of order 1-4% per century (Ray, 2009; Woodworth, 2010; Muller \r et al. 2011). In some locations, the changes in the tides have been of \r comparable importance to changes in mean sea level for explaining \r changes in high water levels (Jay, 2009). For many individual tide \r gauges, the trends in tidal amplitude are strongly positively or \r negatively correlated with local time-mean sea level trends (Devlin \r et  al. 2017). Another source of secular tidal changes, changes in \r oceanic stratification, modifies the rate of energy conversion from the \r barotropic tides to the internal tides (Jayne and St. Laurent, 2001), \r the vertical profile of turbulent viscosity on shelves (Muller, 2012), \r and the propagation speed of the internal tides (Zhao, 2016). For \r example, Colosi and Munk (2006) found an increase in the amplitude \r [...]"


id: 464035651c2242a2fee0f1e997de2890
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9580
content:
"[...] of the principal lunar semidiurnal tide M2 in Honolulu of about 1 cm \r over the past 100 years, which they attributed primarily to changes \r in oceanic stratification bringing about local changes in relative \r phases of the internal and external M2 tides, increasing constructive \r interference. Both sea level and stratification are expected to exhibit \r robust secular positive trends in the coming century due to climate \r change, at rates that are significantly larger than historical trends, and \r people may choose to replace natural beaches and marshes with sea\u0002walls in response to rising sea levels. As a result, it is very likely that \r the majority of coastal regions will experience statistically significant \r changes in tidal amplitudes over the course of the 21st century."


id: 9fdaf5de53c8bb484ea6e9674cd51fac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25331
content:
"euphotic zone and increasing the gradient in oxygen concentrations \r between the near surface ocean and the interior. Increasing upper \r ocean stratification (Figure 5.5) acts to restrict the depth of the \r ocean's surface mixed layer. Increasing stratification increases the \r buoyancy frequency and the lateral propagation speed of internal \r gravity waves and boundary waves by about half the percentage \r change of the stratification itself. Increasing stratification increases \r both the length of the internal deformation radius (a typical length \r scale in baroclinic eddy dynamics) and the horizontal scales of internal \r tides (see Section 5.2.2.2.3) proportionately with the changes in the \r internal gravity wave speeds. An increase in stratification will increase \r the lateral propagation of internal Rossby waves (which set up the \r basin-scale ocean density structure) proportionately. For the same \r forcing, increasing stratification reduces the geostrophically balanced \r [...]"


id: 84ea783541eba33bb37164a995d24a7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20521
content:
"[...] slope of density surfaces, and hence the vertical extent of basin-scale \r wind-driven gyres or coastal upwelling circulations. The flattening of \r density surfaces by increased stratification inhibits advective exchange \r between the surface and interior ocean (Wang et  al. 2015a), with \r consequences for the uptake of anthropogenic carbon (Section 5.2.2.3), \r the evolving oxygen distribution (Section 5.2.2.4) and the supply of \r nutrients to support primary production (Section 5.2.2.5)."


id: 39a588d9f0b00f9f110dabdf1b7ba2d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7353
content:
"Coastal systems are subject to the same large-scale warming trends \r as the open ocean, but the local response may be dominated by \r a complex of localised changes in factors such as circulation, mixing, \r river plumes or the seasonal upwelling of cold water. Using ESMs \r to project how these factors will interact often requires much finer \r resolution than is currently affordable in global models, however \r regional high-resolution models can be effective, especially in \r marginal seas like the Mediterranean with restricted interactions \r with the open ocean and that respond primarily to local forcing \r (Adloff et al. 2015). High resolution regional models have also been \r used to project robust localised ocean climate changes in wide shelf \r seas with more extensive interactions with the open ocean, like those \r in northwestern Europe (Tinker et al. 2016). The technical difficulties \r of using nested regional models are much greater in coasts adjacent \r [...]"


id: 58bc59c9b75896e8c2fba1517e427b1a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12851
content:
"[...] to energetic large-scale currents like the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and \r Agulhas, and projecting detailed coastal climate change such places \r may require the use of expensive high resolution global models (Saba \r et al. 2016). These physical coastal changes have consequences that \r cascade through ecosystems to people, as is illustrated in detail for \r eastern boundary upwelling systems in Box 5.2."


id: d88d4882e2d9e03cd89bf424865b1e01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35391
content:
"Because coastal tides are near resonance in many locations, small \r changes in sea level and bay shape can change the local tides \r significantly. For example, the insertion of tidal power plants can \r have a significant impact on the local tides (Ward et  al. 2012). \r Various observational and modeling studies demonstrate that SLR \r has spatial heterogeneous impacts on the tides, with some locations \r experiencing decreased tidal amplitudes and others experiencing \r increased tidal amplitudes (Pickering et al. 2012; Devlin et al. 2017; \r Pickering et al. 2017). Projections of tidal changes indicate that the \r patterns and even the sign of changes in tidal amplitudes depend on \r whether the coastlines are allowed to recede with rising sea levels \r or are held in place (Pickering et al. 2017; Schindelegger et al. 2018). \r Pelling et al. (2013) and Hwang et al. (2014) demonstrate that the \r rapid coastline changes in China's Bohai Sea have already altered \r [...]"


id: ce78571cf06796ab90baf074d524b535
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33671
content:
"[...] the tides in that region and throughout the Yellow Sea (Hwang et al. \r 2014). Pelling and Green (2014) examine the impact of flood defenses \r as well as SLR on tides on the European Shelf. Such tidal changes \r have implications for designing flood defenses, for tidal renewable \r energy, for tidal flushing timescales of estuaries and embayments, \r and for navigational dredging requirements (Pickering et al. 2012) \r (Section  5.4.2). The sign and amplitude of local changes to tides \r are very likely to be impacted by both human coastal adaptation \r measures and climate drivers (listed above)."


id: 188f1233e722244bf1daf611278ee802
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1532
content:
"re-stratifying overturning circulations that can limit the thickness of \r the well-mixed ocean surface boundary layer near fronts (Bachman \r et  al. 2017). Moreover, sub-mesoscale motions generate strong \r vertical velocities that drive fluxes of nutrients from the interior \r ocean into the euphotic zone or create pockets of reduced mixing \r with increased phytoplankton residency time within the euphotic \r zone (Levy et  al. 2012). Intense mesoscale eddies are known to \r create favourable conditions for sub-mesoscale instabilities as shown \r in both observational (Bachman et al. 2017) and numerical studies \r (Brannigan et al. 2017). Intensifying Southern Ocean eddy fields will \r have a significant local impact on biological productivity, ecosystem \r structure, and carbon uptake, both directly and via sub-mesoscale \r processes. At typical CMIP5 ESM resolutions, it is only in the tropics \r that mesoscale eddies are adequately resolved to explicitly model \r [...]"


id: 628d30ab0aa82623863673f4f975a49e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14628
content:
"[...] their effects (Hallberg, 2013), while sub-mesoscale eddies are not \r resolved anywhere, so eddy effects need to be parameterised in ESMs. \r Despite great progress over the past 30 years in parameterising eddy \r effects, uncertainties in these parameterisations and how eddies will \r respond to novel conditions continue to contribute to uncertainties in \r projections of oceanic climate change (medium confidence)."


id: 4c42dbb0384ce49c87aca713b8995024
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10681
content:
"of the physical mixing (Ilicak et al. 2012; Megann, 2018). Because so \r many ocean models exhibit the same sign of bias, there is a systematic \r warming of the lower-main thermocline that is not cancelled out when \r taking the average over the ensemble of all the models in CMIP5. These \r biases are widely known within the ocean modelling community, and \r various groups are working to reduce these biases in future ESMs \r with better ocean model numerics and parameterisations. To correct \r for model biases, ESM projections are always taken as the difference \r from a control run without the anomalous forcing. However, some \r aspects of the ocean response to climate change are nonlinear, and \r model biases can introduce uncertainties into climate projections. In \r the case of heat uptake, this is of the order of 10% uncertainty, while \r for the rate of steric SLR (which depends on the nonlinear equation \r of state of seawater) the uncertainty in CMIP5 models is of the order \r [...]"


id: caf42808cd3e3a7ea31cc9f94cdf6547
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33046
content:
"dissipation rate and the vertical diffusivity, two measures of ocean \r turbulence, vary over several orders of magnitude throughout the \r ocean (Figure 5.6) (Polzin et al. 1997; Waterman et al. 2012; Whalen \r et al. 2012; Alford et al. 2013; Hummels et al. 2013; Sheen et al. 2013; \r Waterhouse et al. 2014; Kunze, 2017). For a given energy dissipation rate, \r the turbulent diffusivities of heat, salinity, nutrients and other tracers \r tend to be smaller with stronger stratification. This dependency on \r stratification helps explain why the observationally inferred diffusivity \r in the heavily stratified main thermocline (250-1000 m depth) is of \r similar magnitude to those deeper in the water column, while the \r turbulent energy density and dissipation rate are much stronger at \r the shallower depths (Whalen et  al. 2012). Oceanic turbulence also \r fluctuates in time, is modulated by tidal cycles (Klymak et al. 2008), \r [...]"


id: 942b3cd3891750bd88b666c757b62f1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23276
content:
"[...] the mesoscale eddy field and seasonal changes (Whalen et al. 2018). \r In the mixed layer and directly below, turbulence changes according \r to local conditions, such as the winds, heating rates and local \r stratification (Sloyan et  al. 2010; Moum et  al. 2013; D'Asaro, 2014; \r Tanaka et al. 2015) at diurnal to seasonal and longer timescales. These \r variations in near-surface turbulence need to be taken into account \r for ESMs to reproduce more accurately the observed seasonal cycle of \r surface properties and spatial structure of the depth of the thermally \r well-mixed near surface layer of the ocean. The spatial and temporal \r patterns of ocean turbulence help shape ocean tracer distributions \r (heat, dissolved greenhouse gases and nutrients) and how they will \r evolve in a changing climate (high confidence)."


id: 27f6b6bfffec497563f2cd614a6ea558
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4226
content:
"Ocean turbulent mixing requires energy sources, many of which \r are expected to change with a changing climate. Surface wind and \r buoyancy forcing, the mean and eddying larger-scale ocean circulation \r itself, and the barotropic tides are all thought to be significant \r sources of the energy that drives mixing (Wunsch and Ferrari, 2004). \r Often this energy first passes through the ocean's pervasive field of \r internal gravity waves that propagate and refract through the varying \r ocean circulation, often breaking into turbulent mixing far from their \r sources (Eden and Olbers, 2014; Alford et al. 2016; Melet et al. 2016; \r Meyer et al. 2016; Zhao et al. 2016b). The energy contributing to the \r internal waves from the winds and the subsequent turbulence will \r be altered by changes in tropical storm activity or sea ice coverage. \r For example, the increasing extent of ice-free Arctic Ocean has \r already been observed to lead to increased wind-driven internal \r [...]"


id: 9dbe655a8a5ee90d3b4b3ccfec9a6aa7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24986
content:
"[...] waves (Dosser and Rainville, 2016). The Southern Annular Mode is \r expected to intensify as a result of climate change (Young et al. 2011; \r Jones et al. 2016b), bringing with it stronger winds, and more wind\u0002energy input over most of the Southern Ocean and a more intense \r mesoscale eddy field (Hogg et al. 2015). Changes in the near-bottom \r stratification will alter the rate that the barotropic tides generate \r internal waves, thereby altering the strength and distribution of the \r tidally generated mixing. Some of the parameterisations of interior \r ocean mixing used in CMIP5 ESMs take some changing turbulent \r energy sources into account (Jayne and St. Laurent, 2001), and more \r comprehensive mixing treatments are being developed for use in \r future generations of ESMs (Eden and Olbers, 2014). However, not \r all of the physical processes leading to the rich structure of mixing \r shown in Figure 5.6 are well understood or included in ESMs; the \r [...]"


id: 6a22d54107f46ccf50d9a2fa59a52f85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15950
content:
"[...] prospect of significant changes in the patterns and intensity of ocean \r turbulent mixing is a potential source of uncertainty (probably at \r the 10% level) in projections of physical and ecological changes in "


id: e860f9b375ab711b1d4293f637444931
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38215
content:
"The continuing efforts to re-measure dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) \r along many of the repeat hydrographic lines that were occupied during \r the 1980s and 1990 (Talley et al. 2016), alongside the preparation of \r a global quality controlled database of ocean interior observations \r (Olsen et  al. 2016a), have led to progress since AR5 regarding to \r the oceanic interior storage of anthropogenic CO2. Several studies \r analysed the changes in the amount of anthropogenic CO2 that have \r accumulated between different occupations in the different ocean \r basins (Wanninkhof et al. 2010; Perez et al. 2013; Woosley et al. 2016; \r Carter et al. 2017), confirming that the anthropogenic CO2 taken up \r from the atmosphere is transported to depth, where most of it is \r stored. Using a newly developed reconstruction method, Gruber et al. \r (2019) extended these results to the globe. They find that between \r 1994 and 2007, across two standard deviations, that the global \r [...]"


id: c916faf7fc02accdb8a31d6af6bd9f86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32700
content:
"[...] ocean has accumulated an additional 30-38 Pg C of anthropogenic \r CO2, which is equivalent to an air-sea CO2 flux of between \r 2.3-2.9 Pg C yr-1 (coherent with surface ocean CO2 observations), \r bringing the total inventory for the year 2007 to 150 +- 20 Pg C. \r Extrapolating this estimate to the year 2010 gives an inventory of \r 158 +- 18 Pg C, which is statistically indistinguishable from the 'best' \r estimate provided by Khatiwala et al. (2013) of 155 +- 31 Pg C and \r more recently also found from a steady-state ocean model (DeVries, \r 2014) for this reference year. If the inventory-based estimates are "


id: 2edc2aa6959ed4012dc24200493ad74f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5519
content:
"Under RCP8.5, hotspots for undersaturated waters for calcite remain \r restricted to the Arctic Ocean, while for aragonite, much of the \r Southern Ocean and the North Pacific and Northwestern Atlantic \r Oceans are also projected to become undersaturated (Orr et  al. \r 2005; Hauri et al. 2015; Sasse et al. 2015). These results arise from \r the very well understood reductions in carbonate ion concentrations \r at lower pH, the vulnerability of regions with naturally low mean \r values, and the greater overall sensitivity of aragonite solubility. \r Regional models, with higher resolution that ESMs, also project \r year-round corrosive conditions for aragonite in some eastern \r boundary upwelling systems (Franco et  al. 2018a). In the ocean \r interior, the decline in pH and calcium carbonate saturation state is \r more uncertain across models (Steiner et al. 2014) as it is modulated \r by changes to ocean overturning and water mass subduction \r [...]"


id: 42c1572bd6b6a95b231791d5b7933e77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8940
content:
"[...] (Resplandy et al. 2013; Chen et al. 2017). Projected benthic changes \r in pH over the next century are highly localised and are linked to \r transport of surface anomalies to depth, with over 20% of the north \r Atlantic sea floor deeper than 500 m projected to experience pH \r reductions greater than 0.2 units by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario \r (Gehlen et al. 2014). Changes in pH in the abyssal ocean (>3000 m \r deep) are greatest in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, with lesser \r impact in the Southern and Pacific Oceans by 2100, mainly due to \r the circulation timescales (Sweetman et al. 2017)."


id: e7d51538957144451237ba5665db2279
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38096
content:
"Analyses of direct measurements of ocean chemistry from time series \r stations and merged shipboard studies show consistent decreases \r in surface-ocean pH over the past few decades. Reductions range \r between 0.013-0.03 pH units decade-1 over records that span up \r to 25 years (Table SM5.3). Focusing on the individual time series \r locations with records longer than 15 years, there is an overall decline \r of 0.017-0.027 (across 99% confidence intervals). Trends calculated \r from repeat measurements on ocean surveys show a consistent \r value of around -0.02 pH units decade-1 for diverse oceanic regions \r (Table SM5.3), with greater subsurface than surface trends reported \r in the subtropical oceans (Dore et al. 2009). At larger spatial scales, \r surface-ocean pH trends are assessed using shipboard observations \r of the fugacity of CO2 and estimates of ocean alkalinity (Takahashi \r et  al. 2014; Lauvset et  al. 2015). Between 1991-2011, mean \r [...]"


id: f2fa29dee2b393e62017ebe880ede695
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40139
content:
"[...] surface-ocean pH has declined by 0.018 +- 0.004 units decade-1 in \r 70% of ocean biomes, with the largest declines in the Indian Ocean \r (-0.027  units decade-1), eastern Equatorial Pacific (-0.026 units \r decade-1) and the South Pacific subtropical (-0.022 units decade-1) \r biomes (Lauvset et al. 2015). Due to the close link between carbonate \r ion concentrations and pH, mean trends in the stability of mineral \r forms of aragonite and calcite (known as the 'saturation state') that \r are important for organisms such as coccolithophorids, pteropods \r and corals follow those of pH, with high-latitude regions most \r vulnerable to under-saturation due to naturally lower mean values."


id: a31df74ac9066fafe1143f93cdee64a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25906
content:
"Although ocean acidification results in long-term trends in mean ocean \r chemistry, it can also influence seasonal cycles. Observation-based \r products indicate that the seasonal cycle of global surface-ocean \r pCO2 increased in amplitude by 2.2 +- 0.4 matm between 1982 and \r 2014 (Landschutzer et  al. 2018). CMIP5 models and data-based \r products similarly project consistent future increases in the seasonal \r cycle of surface-ocean pCO2 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, \r with enhanced amplification in high-latitude waters (McNeil and \r Sasse, 2016). The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of global surface\u0002ocean free acidity ([H+]) is projected to increase by 71-91% (across \r 90% confidence intervals) over the 21st century under RCP8.5, also \r with greater amplification in the high-latitudes (Kwiatkowski and Orr, \r 2018). Conversely, models project a 12-20% reduction (across 90% \r confidence intervals) in the seasonal amplitude of surface-ocean \r [...]"


id: 26bc501e2fb425f485d9a13051b1a624
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3972
content:
"[...] pH, as changes in pH represent relative changes in [H+] due to their \r logarithmic relationship, and there are typically greater projected \r increases in annual mean state [H+] than the seasonal amplitude of \r [H+]. Models also project a 4-14% (across 90% confidence intervals) \r reduction in the seasonal amplitude of global mean surface-ocean \r aragonite saturation state under RCP8.5, with a slight amplification \r in the subtropics being outweighed by dampening elsewhere. "


id: 21956f755c09b2fb9c9d1082df653829
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3117
content:
"CMIP5 models are in good agreement with historical observations \r of declining surface-ocean pH (Figure 5.8a). Models project global \r surface-ocean declines between 2006-2015 and 2081-2100 of \r 0.287-0.291 and 0.036-0.042 pH units (both across 99% confidence \r intervals) for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, with \r higher reductions in the subsurface of subtropical oceans (Bopp \r et  al. 2013; Gattuso et  al. 2015). These changes in pH will be \r greatest in the Arctic Ocean and the high latitudes of the Atlantic \r and Pacific Oceans due to their lower buffer capacity and are lowest \r in contemporary upwelling systems (Figure 5.8b) and will also \r reduce the stability of calcite minerals (Bopp et al. 2013; Gattuso \r et al. 2015). The area of the surface ocean (0-10 m) characterised by \r undersaturated conditions in CMIP5 models by 2081-2100 reduces \r from a very likely range of 6.4-9.5 x 1012 m2\r  or 5.5-7.3 x 1013 m2\r [...]"


id: f64531eb1cc00b76cc3e603a2db83b4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40690
content:
"[...] under  RCP8.5 (as much as 16-20% of ocean surface area for \r aragonite), to just 0.01-0.2 x 1012 m2\r  or 0.01-0.13  x  1013  m2\r under RCP2.6 for either calcite or aragonite minerals, respectively. "


id: 541cc09f7046d987a55417bae62c933f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12074
content:
"Ocean oxygen (O2) levels at the surface are controlled by the balance \r between oxygen production during photosynthesis, temperature\u0002controlled solubility and air-sea exchange. Deeper in the water \r column, consumption of oxygen during respiration and redistribution \r by ocean circulation and mixing are dominant processes. In theory, \r a warmer more stratified ocean would have a reduced oxygen \r content, due to the combined influence of lowered gas solubility \r and a greater interior respiration of organic matter due to enhanced \r physical isolation of subsurface waters. In accord, global changes in \r ocean oxygen assessed from three different analyses of compiled \r global oxygen datasets going back to the 1960s agree that there is \r a net loss of oxygen from the ocean over all depths (see Table 5.2). \r For the 0-1000 m depth stratum that contains the most data and is \r common to all three analyses, oxygen is assessed to have declined \r [...]"


id: d9cf1afa910bf5ae878040814cf31383
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35619
content:
"[...] by a very likely range of 0.5-3.3% between 1970 and 2010. For the \r surface ocean (0-100 m) and the thermocline later of 100-600 m \r the very likely range of oxygen declines are 0.2-2.1% and 0.7-3.5%, \r respectively (Table 5.2). Across two studies, global oxygen is assessed \r to have declined by a very likely range of 0.3-2.0%, with a similar \r range of decline for waters deeper than 600 m (Table 5.2). The \r regions of lowest oxygen, known as OMZs, with oxygen levels lower \r than 80  mmol L-1), are observed to be expanding by a very likely\r range of 3.0-8.3% across the three studies."


id: e76bde70a52f46bb0070df2bfe1274d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38013
content:
"The role of ocean warming alone in driving the oxygen changes can \r be appraised using solubility estimates, which vary between around \r 15-50% for the upper 1000 m oxygen trend between studies (Helm \r et al. 2011; Ito et al. 2017; Schmidtko et al. 2017). The role of other \r processes, linked to changing ocean ventilation and respiration are \r challenging to appraise directly, but tend to reinforce the impacts \r from warming and are probably predominant overall (Oschlies \r et al. 2018). Indeed, that the observed oxygen decline is negatively \r correlated with ocean heat content changes (Ito et al. 2017) reflects \r the overriding role of changing ocean ventilation and associated \r processes (see also Section 5.2.2). That the ratio of the associated \r oxygen to heat changes is larger than would be expected from thermal \r processes alone also highlights the role played by other processes \r (Oschlies et al. 2018). Local oxygen trends have emphasised the role \r [...]"


id: f90714381fed09186171cae3e0fd08b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41177
content:
"[...] of changes to ocean physics in western Northern Pacific (Whitney \r et  al. 2013); Sasano et  al. (2015), the southern California Current \r region (Goericke et al. 2015), and the Santa Barbara Basin (Goericke \r et al. 2015). In regions of high mesoscale activity, such as the tropical \r north Atlantic, low oxygen eddies can have a significant impact \r on oxygen dynamics (Karstensen et al. 2015; Grundle et al. 2017). \r Oxygen fluctuations in the deep ocean have been linked to changes \r in large scale ocean circulation (Watanabe et  al. 2003; Stendardo \r and Gruber, 2012) and at the global scale, the observed oxygen \r decline is negatively correlated with ocean heat content changes (Ito \r et al. 2017). Changes to respiration rates, either due to temperature \r enhancement or in the amount/quality of organic material can also \r be important and the enhanced respiratory demand associated with \r an intensified monsoon has been invoked as a driver of the expansion \r [...]"


id: 4ffe68b4e1c56a31bf6478464fb4b137
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11368
content:
"Regionally, all studies agree that the north Pacific and Southern \r Oceans have shown the largest overall oxygen declines (Figure 5.9), \r but there is some disagreement regarding the magnitude of the \r oxygen change in the tropical ocean, with some studies suggesting \r significant declines (Schmidtko et  al. 2017) and other reporting \r more modest reductions (Helm et al. 2011; Ito et al. 2017) and data \r coverage is still limited for some regions and deeper than 1000 m. \r Based on the available data, the strongest declines in deep ocean \r oxygen have occurred in the Equatorial Pacific, North Pacific, \r Southern Ocean and South Atlantic, with intermediate declines in \r the Arctic, South Pacific and Equatorial Atlantic, while the north \r Atlantic has experienced a moderate oxygen increase below 1200 m \r (Figure 5.9). A particular difference between parallel oxygen analyses \r concerns the means of integrating and mapping sparse data across \r [...]"


id: 73733eee8d640b0965c746fea8bba2ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17566
content:
"[...] the ocean, both horizontally and vertically, with different studies \r making specific decisions about averaging grids and integration \r methods. Moreover, data remains sparse for some ocean regions, \r depths and periods. Taken together, the challenges of data sparsity, \r regional differences and the relatively large uncertainties on the \r oxygen changes across different studies, but also recognising that \r oxygen declines are significantly different to zero, leads to medium \r confidence in the observed oxygen decline."


id: ebcd5fb03a6e8b9c8e19d6af0cf962ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38854
content:
"Future changes in oxygen can be appraised from ESMs that account \r for the combined effects of ocean physics and biogeochemistry. \r Globally, these models project that it is very likely oxygen will decline \r by 3.2-3.7% or 1.6-2.0% (both across 90% confidence limits) for \r RCP8.5 or RCP2.6, respectively, relative to 2000 (Bopp et al. 2013). \r Focussing on the 100-600 m depth stratum, O2 changes by -4 to \r -3.1% for the RCP8.5 or by -0.5-0.1% for the RCP2.6 scenario \r (relative to 2006-2015, Figure 5.8d). It should be noted that ESMs \r appear to be underestimating the rate of oxygen change from \r available datasets from the historical period (Oschlies et al. 2018). \r Increased tropical ocean stratification reduces interior ocean oxygen \r by diminishing pathways of ventilation in the subtropical gyres \r and by inhibiting turbulent mixing with the oxygen-rich surface \r ocean (see Section 5.2.2.2.4). This relatively robust global modelled \r [...]"


id: f54a494e1ad23d9f333d3962f5f154cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40523
content:
"[...] trend (Figure 5.8d) however masks important uncertainties in the \r projection of regional trends (Figure 5.8e), particularly in the tropical \r ocean OMZs (Bopp et al. 2013; Cocco et al. 2013; Cabre et al. 2015). \r The uncertainty in the trends in tropical ocean OMZs arises due to \r the fact that oxygen depletion due to warming induced reductions in \r oxygen saturation are opposed by oxygen enrichment due to reduced \r oxygen consumption during respiration in response to predicted \r declines in marine export production, as well as biases due to model "


id: 874f33c4a19010d5e81b79d39edc6032
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20966
content:
"In general, future increases in stratification (Dave and Lozier, 2013; \r Talley et al. 2016; Kwiatkowski et al. 2017; and see also Section 5.2.2.2) \r will trap nutrients in the ocean interior and reduce upper ocean \r nutrient levels, alongside an additional local impact from changes \r to atmospheric delivery. However, no CMIP5 models accounted for \r changes in nutrient delivery from dust and anthropogenic aerosols \r during their experiments, which could be an important component \r of regional change (Wang et al. 2015b; Somes et al. 2016; Yang and \r Gruber, 2016). ESMs project a decline in the nitrate content of the \r upper 100 m of 9-14% or 1.5-6% (across 90% confidence intervals) \r for the RCP8.5 or RCP2.6 scenario, respectively, by 2081-2100 relative \r to 2006-2015 (Figure 5.8g). The largest absolute declines in nitrate \r content is projected in the present day upwelling zones (Figure 5.8h). \r Projected changes to upper 100 m nitrate concentrations are \r [...]"


id: a0d7064ff36414ac9ed88ec2ac5544e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25516
content:
"[...] significantly different to zero for both RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 at the 90% \r confidence level, but are overall lower for the RCP2.6. Scenario, internal \r variability and inter-model variability contribute roughly equally to the \r overall projection uncertainty in 2100 (Figure 5.8i) and there is no clear \r separation of nitrate trends between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 outside the \r model uncertainty (Figure 5.8h)."


id: 53f04d375977552a481f23fa492643ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12037
content:
"CMIP5 models show a strong negative relationship between changes \r in stratification that reduces net nutrient supply and integrated export \r production (Fu et al. 2016). Export production is projected to decline \r by 8.9-15.8% or 1.6-4.9% (across 90% confidence intervals) by \r 2100, relative to 2000 for the RCP8.5 or RCP2.6 scenario, respectively \r (Bopp et al. 2013; Fu et al. 2016; Laufkotter et al. 2016). The projected \r changes in export production can be larger than global primary \r production because they are affected by both the NPP changes, \r but also how shifts in food web structure modulates the 'transfer \r efficiency' of particulate organic material (Guidi et al. 2016; Treguer \r et  al. 2018), which then affects the sinking speed and lability of \r exported particles through the ocean interior to the sea floor (Bopp \r et al. 2013; Fu et al. 2016; Laufkotter et al. 2016). Declines in export \r production over much of the ocean mean that the flux arriving at \r [...]"


id: 697162e2ddf8b5156a4e633a2d3113c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15819
content:
"[...] the sea floor is also predicted to decline, while increases in export \r production are projected in the polar regions that see enhanced NPP \r (Sweetman et al. 2017). "


id: 5a1b1513711cf8a7911889df6c7ee01b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13101
content:
"Future changes in NPP will result from the changing influence from \r temperature, light, nutrients and grazing (Figure 5.12). Across CMIP \r models, NPP is predicted to broadly decline or remain constant \r by 2081-2100, with mean changes by 2100 of -3.8 to -10.6% \r and -1.1-0.8% across 90% confidence intervals for the RCP85 \r and RCP26 scenario, respectively (all relative to 2006-2015), with \r a  strong degree of regional symmetry (Figure 5.8k). As seen for \r nitrate, changes are most marked in low-latitude upwelling regions, \r which are projected to show the largest absolute declines. As for \r nitrate, projected NPP changes are lower for the RCP26 scenario \r (Figure 5.8j), but the overall uncertainty is dominated by internal \r and inter-model variability in 2100 (Figure 5.8l) which results in \r no clear separation of NPP trends between the RCP85 and RCP26 \r (Figure 5.8j). Tropical ocean NPP is projected to show a large decline, \r [...]"


id: 747732e8e9fd0333e2875edbd75b0ff7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17727
content:
"[...] but is underpinned by substantial intermodal uncertainty, with mean \r changes of 11 +- 24% across the suite of CMIP5 models by 2100, \r relative to 2000 under RCP8.5 (Laufkotter et al. 2015). However, if \r emergent constraints from the historical record that link the variability \r of tropical productivity to temperature anomalies then a four-fold \r decline in inter-model uncertainty results. This leads to a projected \r tropical ocean decline of 11 +- 6%, or from 6.8-16.2% across 90% \r confidence limits, depending on which historical constraint is used \r (Kwiatkowski et al. 2017). NPP is projected to increases for higher \r latitude regions, such as the Arctic and Southern Oceans."


id: b5c29680b0c112eed19ac67988b10718
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29204
content:
"The realism in model projections can be appraised via their ability \r to accurately simulate the limiting nutrient in specific ocean \r regions (Figure 5.11), with high model skill in reproducing surface \r distributions of nitrate and phosphate (Laufkotter et  al. 2015), \r raising confidence in projections in nitrogen and phosphorus limited \r systems, but poor skill in reproducing iron distributions (Tagliabue \r et al. 2016) lowering confidence in iron limited regions (Figure 5.11). \r In addition to concentrations of specific nutrients, the response of \r NPP to environmental change is strongly controlled by accurate \r representation of the ratio of resources (Moreno et al. 2017). Overall \r CMIP5 models skill in reproducing patterns of NPP and export \r production from limited satellite derived estimates range from \r poor to average (correlation coefficients of 0.1-0.6 across different \r models (Laufkotter et al. 2016; Moreno et al. 2017)), but it should be \r [...]"


id: 335e62b2a9ad2445e8ca7fc489441e0d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6290
content:
"[...] noted that complete comprehensive observational datasets do not \r exist for these metrics with very few in situ observations. As export \r production is a much better understood net integral of changing net \r nutrient supply (Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002) and can be constrained \r by interior ocean nutrient and oxygen levels, there is medium \r confidence in these projections for global changes. Improving the \r ability of models to reproduce historical NPP is crucial for more \r accurate projections as model biases in simulating contemporary \r ocean biogeochemistry play a key role in driving future projections \r (Fu et al. 2016). "


id: d5d95d1f0ea28139c2d2aeefbf7de73e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34935
content:
"Detailed analyses of the interplay between different drivers of \r NPP, including temperature, light, nutrient levels and grazing \r from a  subset of CMIP5 models, reveals a complex interplay with \r a strong latitudinal dependence (Laufkotter et al. 2015) summarised \r in Figure 5.12. Warming acts to enhance growth, most notably at \r lower latitudes, while light conditions are also predicted to improve, \r mostly at the poles. Nutrient limitation shows a much more complex \r response across models, but tends to increase in the tropics and \r northern high latitudes, with little change in the Southern Ocean. \r Taken together there is a tendency for reduced growth rates \r across the entire ocean, but there is a large amount of inter-model \r variability. The changes in growth are allied to a consistent increase \r in the grazing loss of biomass to upper trophic levels. Since AR5, we \r have an increasing body of literature concerning role of biological \r [...]"


id: d821a2f47f2c3228d3171ab42b061b0f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35327
content:
"[...] feedbacks, especially due to interactions between organisms, specific \r physiological responses and from upper trophic levels on nutrient \r concentrations, linked to variable food quality (Kwiatkowski et  al. \r 2018), resource recycling (Boyd et al. 2015a; Tagliabue et al. 2017) "


id: 19f1bbf596419dbeb4d96a51eb7a092b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1767
content:
"The concept of time of emergence (ToE) is defined as the time at which the signal of climate change in a given variable emerges \r from a measure of the background variability or noise (SROCC Glossary). In associating a calendar date with the detection, attribution \r and projection of climate trends, the concept of a ToE has proved useful for policy and planning particularly through informing\r important climatic thresholds and the uncertainties associated with past and future climate change (Hawkins and Sutton, 2012). \r However, there is not a single agreed metric and the ToE for a given variable thus depends on choices regarding the space and time \r scale, the threshold at which emergence is defined and the reference period (IPCC 5th Asseessment Report (AR5) Working Group \r I (WGI) Section 11.3.2.1). Recently, the ToE concept has been expanded to consider variables related to climatic hazards to marine \r [...]"


id: 28782a8ac8c350f259f9e1c33876212a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4324
content:
"[...] organisms and ecosystems such as pH, carbonate ion concentrations, aragonite and calcite saturation states, nutrient levels and\r marine primary productivity (Box 5.1, Figure 1) (Ilyina et al. 2009; Friedrich et al. 2012; Keller et al. 2014b; Lovenduski et al. 2015; \r Rodgers et al. 2015). ToE assessments for the ocean typically quantify the internal variability using the standard deviation of the \r detrended data over a given time period (Keller et al. 2014b; Rodgers et al. 2015; Henson et al. 2016; Henson et al. 2017), the scenario \r and model uncertainty associated with different climate scenarios and across available ESMs (Frolicher et al. 2016), and in some cases \r the autocorrelation of noise (Weatherhead et al. 1998). As more components of 'noise' are accounted for, the ToE lengthens and the \r ToE is also affected by whether a control simulation or historical variability is used to determine the noise (Hameau et al. 2019). "


id: c9e510f5482cd5d17ff78656764f32b4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32849
content:
"This assessment considers the ToE of hazards exposed to by marine organisms and ecosystems. These biological components of the \r ocean respond to climate hazards that emerge locally, rather than to the global and basin-scale averages reported in WGI AR5 (Stocker \r et al. 2013). Overall, ESMs show that there is an ordered emergence of the climate variables, with pH emerging rapidly across the \r entire open ocean, followed by sea surface temperature (SST), interior oxygen, upper ocean nutrient levels and finally NPP under\r both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 relative to the 1861-1900 reference period (Box 5.1, Figure 1). \r Anthropogenic signals remain detectable for over large parts of the ocean even for the RCP2.6 scenario for pH and SST, but are likely \r lowered for nutrients and NPP in the 21st century. For example, for the open ocean, the anthropogenic pH signal in Earth System\r [...]"


id: ff47631a8b5bbc10c64632dc8cbe27ab
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vector_id: 42318
content:
"[...] Models (ESM) historical simulations is very likely to have emerged for three-quarters of the ocean prior to 1950 and it is very likely\r over 95% of the ocean has already been affected, with little discernable difference between scenarios. The climate signal of oxygen \r loss will very likely emerge from the historical climate by 2050 with a very likely range of 59-80% by 2031-2050 and rising with a \r very likely range of 79-91% of the ocean area by 2081-2100 (RCP8.5 emissions scenario). The emergence of oxygen loss is smaller \r in area under RCP2.6 scenario in the 21st century and by 2090 the emerged area is declining (Henson et al. 2017) (Box 5.1 Figure 1). It \r has also been shown that changes to oxygen solubility or utilisation may emerge earlier than bulk oxygen levels (Hameau et al. 2019)."


id: 10c927cca7a94d87f52023f6a3515813
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 138
content:
"It must be noted that variability will be greater in the coastal ocean than for the open ocean, which will be important for both hazard \r exposure for coastal species and the detection of trends. For example, although signals of anthropogenic influences have already\r emerged from internal variability in the late 20th century for global and basin-scale averaged ocean surface and sub-surface temperature \r (very likely) (AR5 WGI Summary for Policymakers), their ToE and level of confidence vary greatly at local scales and in coastal seas \r (Frolicher et al. 2016). Pelagic organisms with small range size may thus be more (or less) at risk to warming with earlier (or later) \r ToE at the scale of the area that they inhabit. From an observational standpoint, analyses that account for autocorrelation of noise \r suggest time series of around a decade are sufficient to detect a trend in pH or SST, whereas datasets spanning 30 years or longer are \r [...]"


id: f4f6a5d76c536d2502b89fe38e0abae6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40462
content:
"[...] typically needed for detection of emergence at local scales for oxygen, nitrate and primary productivity (Henson et al. 2016). "


id: 4a08b1cb7da96ad1793a7bd04d58c06a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10266
content:
"The rapidity of change and its geographic scope, encompassed in the ToE, can be linked to concepts of exposure to hazard and \r vulnerability of biota. As organisms have evolved to be adaptable to natural variations in the environmental conditions of their \r habitats, changes to their habitat conditions larger than that typically experienced or specific biological thresholds such as upper \r temperature or oxygen tolerance may become hazardous (Mora et al. 2013). This would then move from the statistical nature of \r the 'detection and attribution' nature of the ToE discussed above towards timescales of impacts on organisms useful for ecosystem \r projections. In doing so, it will be important to think about the differences in habitat suitability between different organisms, including \r their specific thresholds for specific drivers, for example, temperature, oxygen or calcium carbonate stability. Further, thresholds vary \r [...]"


id: e14e34cd8ca5f65b8bf358beffd5d3ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36903
content:
"[...] depending on habitat, for example, warming thresholds for coral bleaching (Pendleton et al. 2016) may differ from the temperature \r and oxygen thresholds for fishes such as Atlantic cod and tunas (Deutsch et al. 2015). Moreover, species with fast generation \r times relative to the ToE of key habitat conditions (e.g., phytoplankton) may evolve more quickly to environmental change and be less \r vulnerable to climate change than longer-lived, slower generation time species (e.g., large sharks) (Jones and Cheung, 2018). However, \r evidence on evolutionary adaptation to expected climate change is limited, thus while shorter generation time may facilitate adaptation \r to environmental change, it does not necessarily result in successful adaptation of organisms (Section 5.2.3.1)."


id: 7eb3126165042d472252738b63634ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19449
content:
"Marine pelagic ecosystems (the water column extending from the \r surface ocean down to the deep sea floor) face increasing climate \r related hazards from the changing environmental conditions (see \r Section 5.2.2). WGII AR5 (Portner et  al. 2014) concluded, as also \r confirmed in Section 5.2.2, that long time series of more than \r three or four decades in length are necessary for determining \r biological trends in the ocean. However, long-term biological \r observations of pelagic ecosystems are rare and biased toward \r mid to high-latitude systems in the Northern Hemisphere (Edwards \r et  al. 2013; Poloczanska et  al. 2013; Poloczanska et  al. 2016). \r This assessment, therefore, combines multiple lines of evidence \r ranging from experiments, field observations to model simulations \r to detect and attribute drivers of biological changes in the past, \r project future climate impacts and risks of pelagic ecosystems. In \r [...]"


id: d71bbd237d11715841b05b535d5d8df8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35153
content:
"[...] this section the pelagic ecosystem is subdivided into the surface, \r epipelagic ocean (<200 m, the uppermost part of the ocean that \r receives enough sunlight to allow photosynthesis) (Section 5.2.3.1) \r and the deep pelagic ocean, comprising the twilight, mesopelagic \r zone (200-1000 m) and the dark, bathypelagic zone (>1000 m \r deep) (Section 5.2.3.2). Although the WGII AR5 Chapter 30 defined \r the deep sea as below 1000 m (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2014), the \r absence of photosynthetically useful light and ensuing critical \r ecological, biogeochemical transformations, and altered human \r interactions that occur on much of the sea floor below 200 m have \r led both pelagic and benthic biologists to include the ocean waters \r and seafloor below  200 m within the definition of the deep sea \r (Herring and Dixon, 1998; Gage, 2003)."


id: e6a3694f84106a2ed1f87d72dd1310c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37872
content:
"Temperature-driven shifts in distribution and phenology \r WGII AR5 concluded that the vulnerability of most organisms \r to warming is set by their physiology, which defines their limited \r temperature ranges and thermal sensitivity (Portner et  al. 2014). \r Although different hypotheses have been proposed since AR5 to \r explain the mechanism linking temperature sensitivity of marine \r organisms and their physiological tolerances (Schulte, 2015; Portner \r et  al. 2017; Somero et  al. 2017), evidence from physiological \r experiments and observations from paleo- and contemporary periods \r continue to support the conclusion from AR5 on the impacts of \r temperature change beyond thermal tolerance ranges on biological \r functions such as metabolism, growth and reproduction (Payne et al. \r 2016; Portner and Gutt, 2016; Gunderson et al. 2017), contributing to \r changes in biogeography and community structure (Beaugrand et al. \r [...]"


id: 762fdf5c9d56cf4b37b6c8a6fd0acb10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18019
content:
"[...] 2015; Stuart-Smith et al. 2015) (high agreement, high confidence). \r Comparison of biota across land and ocean suggests that marine \r species are generally inhabiting environment that is closer to their \r upper temperature limits, explaining the substantially higher rate of "


id: 6b70943e223ff9a481dd2752522bf86c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16200
content:
"bathymetry in all or part of their life stages (for organisms living on \r or close to the seafloor) (Pinsky et al. 2013; Kleisner et al. 2015), \r geographical barriers (Pinsky et  al. 2013; Burrows  et  al.  2014), \r availability of food and critical habitat (Sydeman et  al. 2015), \r fishing and other non-climatic human impacts (Engelhard et  al. \r 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. 2014). Moreover, observed range \r shifts in respond to climate change in some regions such as the \r north Atlantic are strongly influenced by warming due to multi\u0002decadal variability (Edwards et  al. 2013; Harris et  al. 2014), \r suggesting that there is a longer time-of-emergence of range \r shifts from natural variability and a need for longer biological time \r series for robust attribution. The rate of shifts in biogeography \r of organism is influenced by multiple climatic and non-climatic \r factors (high confidence) that can result in non-synchronous shifts \r [...]"


id: 7ea33ec869606bcbd7aa028ce73156ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19437
content:
"[...] in community composition (high confidence).  There is general \r under-representation of biogeographical records in low latitudes \r (Dornelas et al. 2018), rendering detection and attribution of shifts \r in biogeography in these regions having medium confidence. The \r variation in responses of marine biota to range shifts can cause \r spatial restructuring of the pelagic ecosystem with consequences \r for organisms at higher trophic levels (Chivers et al. 2017; Pecl et al. \r 2017) (high confidence). Marine ectotherms have demonstrated \r some capacity for physiological adjustment and evolutionary \r adaptation that lowers their sensitivity to warming and decrease in \r oxygen (Portner et al. 2014; Cavallo et al. 2015) (low confidence). \r However, historical responses in abundance and ranges of marine \r species to ocean warming suggest that adaptation not always \r suffices to mitigate projected impacts (WGII AR5 Chapter 6) \r (high confidence). "


id: 5619b2f3a8b10f86d264cb89b2762226
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12420
content:
"local extirpation related to warming relative to those on land (Pinsky \r et al. 2019). Hypoxia and acidification can also limit the temperature \r ranges of organisms and exacerbate their sensitivity to warming \r (Mackenzie et  al. 2014; Rosas-Navarro et  al. 2016; Portner et  al. \r 2017), although interactions vary strongly between species and \r biological processes (Gobler and Baumann, 2016; Lefevre, 2016).\r Shifts in distribution of marine species from phytoplankton to \r marine mammals continued to be observed since AR5 across all \r ocean regions (Poloczanska et al. 2016). Recent evidence continues \r to support that a large proportion of records of observed range \r shifts in the epipelagic ecosystem (Poloczanska et  al. 2016) are \r correlated with ocean temperature, with an estimated average shift \r in distribution (including range centroids, northward and southward \r boundaries) from these records of 51.5 +- 33.3 km per decade since \r [...]"


id: f91980b6cc94032c7284d8f7805a4e51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41186
content:
"[...] the 1950s (Figure 5.13). Such rate of shift is significantly faster \r than those records for organisms in the seafloor; the latter has an \r average rate of distribution shift of 29.0 +- 15.5 km per decade \r (44% of the records for seafloor species with range shifts that \r are consistent with expectation from the observed temperature \r changes) (very likely) (Figure 5.13). Comparison of global seafloor\u0002derived planktonic foraminifera from pre-industrial age with recent \r (from year 1978) communities show that the recent assemblages \r differ from their pre-industrial with increasing dominance of warmer \r or cooler species that are mostly consistent with temperature \r changes (Jonkers et al. 2019). Rate of observed responses also varies \r between and within animal groups among ocean regions, with \r zooplankton and fishes having faster recorded range shifts (Pinsky \r et al. 2013; Asch, 2015; Jones and Cheung, 2015; Poloczanska et al. \r [...]"


id: 61a5d10ec654052672da0f2581fa0d7e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14468
content:
"[...] 2016). For example, analysis of the Continuous Plankton Recorder \r (CPR) data-series from the north Atlantic in the last decades shows \r that the range of dinoflagellates tended to closely track the velocity \r of climate change (the rate of isotherm movement). In contrast, the \r distribution range of diatoms shifted much more slowly (Chivers \r et  al. 2017) and its distribution seems to be primary influenced \r by multi-decadal variability rather than from secular temperature \r trends. The CPR surveys have also provided evidence that some \r calanoid copepods are expanding poleward in the Northeast \r Atlantic, at a rate up to 232 km per decade (Beaugrand, 2009; \r Chivers et  al. 2017), although different calanoid species respond \r differently in the rate and direction of shifts (Philippart et al. 2003; \r Edwards and Richardson, 2004; Asch, 2015; Crespo et  al. 2017). \r Overall, the observed changes in biogeography are consistent \r [...]"


id: 9de5f85a673c609a36193e49c2c7171c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25016
content:
"[...] with expected responses to changes in ocean temperature for the \r majority of marine biota (high confidence). This is also consistent \r with theories and experimental evidence that scale from individual \r organisms' physiological responses to community level effects (high \r confidence). Sensitivity of organisms' biogeography varies between \r taxonomic groups (high confidence). \r The rate and direction of observed range shifts are shaped by the \r interaction between climatic and non-climatic factors (Poloczanska \r et  al. 2013; Sydeman et  al. 2015; Poloczanska et  al. 2016), such \r as local temperature and oxygen gradients in the habitat across \r depth (Cheung et  al. 2013; Deutsch et  al. 2015), latitude and \r longitude (Burrows et al. 2014; Barton et al. 2016), ocean currents \r (Sunday et al. 2015; Barton et al. 2016; Garcia Molinos et al. 2017), "


id: b1cb378cd765838f63d0816e84bfed32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28497
content:
"Marine reptiles, seabirds and mammals breathe air, instead of \r obtaining oxygen from water, and many of them spend some of \r their life cycle on land, being their abundance and distribution still \r affected by temperature (Portner et al. 2014). Long term population \r changes and shifts in distribution associated with climate change \r have been observed for temperate species of seabirds and marine \r mammals (Henderson et al. 2014; Hiscock and Chilvers, 2014; Ramp \r et  al. 2015) (high confidence). For example, Laysan, Phoebastria \r immutabilis, and Wandering, Diomedea exulans, albatross have \r responded positively to climate change as they have been able \r to take advantage of the increased intensity of winds. This has \r allowed them to forage farther and faster, making their foraging \r trips shorter, increasing their foraging efficiency and breeding \r success (Descamps et  al. 2015; Thorne et  al. 2016). For reptiles, \r [...]"


id: 8bc4935e6d826c5cdd668089ebd3f2b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21758
content:
"[...] like sea turtles and snakes, temperature directly affects important \r life history traits including hatchling size, sex, viability and \r performance (high confidence) (Hays et al. 2003; Pike, 2014; Dudley \r et  al. 2016; Santos et  al. 2017). This is particularly important for \r marine turtles as changing temperatures will affect the hatchling \r sex ratio because sex is determined by nest site temperature (high \r confidence) (Hatfield et  al. 2012; Santidrian Tomillo et  al. 2014; \r Patricio et al. 2017). Loss of breeding substrate, including mostly \r coastal habitats such as sandy beaches (Section 5.3.3), can reduce \r the available nesting or pupping habitat for land breeding marine \r turtles, lizards, seabirds and pinnipeds (Fish et  al. 2005; Fuentes \r et al. 2010; Funayama et al. 2013; Reece et al. 2013; Katselidis et al. \r 2014; Patino-Martinez et al. 2014; Pike et al. 2015; Reynolds et al. "


id: 5433d7c88b4f3f3711367acf0ddeb3a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12091
content:
"species endemic to the habitat; for example, while the decrease \r in summer sea ice in the Arctic may favour the expansion of killer \r whales (Orcinus orca), their occurrence can result in narwhale \r (Monodon monoceros) to avoid the use of key habitats to reduce \r the risk of killer whales' predation (Bost et  al. 2009; Sydeman \r et al. 2015; Breed et al. 2017) (see Chapter 3; section 3.2.1.4). In \r addition, marine mammals, seabirds and sea turtles present habitat \r requirements associated with bathymetric and mesoscale features \r that facilitate the aggregation of their prey (Bost et  al. 2015; \r Kavanaugh et al. 2015; Hindell et al. 2016; Hunt et al. 2016; Santora \r et  al. 2017). The persistence and location of these features are \r linked to variations in climate (Crocker et al. 2006; Baez et al. 2011; \r Dugger et  al. 2014; Abrahms et  al. 2017; Youngflesh et  al. 2017) \r and to foraging success, juvenile recruitment, breeding phenology, \r [...]"


id: 6f596142eca4ec31bdeb56d5fc2a7cb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16853
content:
"[...] growth rates and population stability (Costa et  al. 2010; Ancona \r and Drummond, 2013; Ducklow et al. 2013; Chambers et al. 2014; \r Descamps et al. 2015; Abadi et al. 2017; Bjorndal et al. 2017; Fluhr "


id: 3967b9d11c724621efaac41cfd92c827
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7312
content:
"2015; Marshall et  al. 2017) (high confidence). Climatic hazards \r such as SLR contributes to the loss of these coastal habitats (see \r Section 5.3 and Chapter  3). Changes in ocean temperature will \r also indirectly impact marine mammals, seabirds and reptiles by \r changing the abundance and distribution of their prey (Polovina, \r 2005; Polovina et  al. 2011; Doney et  al. 2012; Sydeman et  al. \r 2015; Briscoe et  al. 2017; Woodworth-Jefcoats et  al. 2017) (high \r confidence). The distributions of some of these large animals is \r determined by the occurrence and persistence of oceanic bridges \r and barriers that are related to climate driven processes (Ascani \r et al. 2016; McKeon et al. 2016). For example, the decline of Arctic \r sea ice is affecting the range and migration patterns of some species \r and is allowing the exchange of species previously restricted to \r either the Pacific or Atlantic oceans (Alter et  al. 2015; George \r [...]"


id: 21a876dfe5bce8b5dd123dadad970fd0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3131
content:
"[...] et al. 2015; Laidre et al. 2015; MacIntyre et al. 2015; McKeon et al. \r 2016; Breed et al. 2017; Hauser et al. 2017) (Chapter 3). Also, the \r range expansion of some of these predatory megafauna can affect "


id: 12654ffe466ce48399cabde4e39e04bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 439
content:
"Warming has contributed also to observed changes in phenology \r (timing of repeated seasonal activities) of marine organisms \r (Gittings et al. 2018), although observations are biased towards the \r northeast Atlantic (Poloczanska et al. 2016; Thackeray et al. 2016). \r Shifts in the timing of interacting species have occurred in the \r last decades, eventually leading to uncoupling between prey and \r predators, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences \r (Kharouba et  al. 2018; Neuheimer et  al. 2018). Timing of spring \r phenology of marine organisms is shifting to earlier in the year \r under warming, at an average rate of 4.4 +- 1.1 days per decade \r (Poloczanska et al. 2013), although it is variable among taxonomic \r groups and among ocean regions (Lindley and Kirby, 2010). This is \r consistent with the expectations based on the close relationship \r between temperature and these biological events, supporting \r [...]"


id: 34c5d9cea4f48eecdfe8b6a11d23a24c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6525
content:
"[...] evidence from AR5 (Bruge et al. 2016; Poloczanska et al. 2016). Thus, \r the growing amount of literature and new studies since AR5 WGII \r and SR15 further support  that phenology of marine ectotherms \r in the epipelagic systems are related to ocean warming (high \r confidence) and that the timing of biological events has shifted \r earlier (high confidence). "


id: 6c0abc44ce1e12dbaae0bb05573791f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16312
content:
"WGII AR5 and SR15 conclude that projected ocean warming will \r continue to cause poleward shifts in the distribution and biomass \r of pelagic species, paralleled by altered seasonal timing of their \r activities, species abundance, migration pattern and reduction \r in body size in the 21st century under scenarios of increasing \r greenhouse gas emission (Portner et  al. 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg \r et al. 2018). Simultaneously, projected expansion of OMZ and ocean \r acidification could lead to shifts in community composition toward \r hypoxia-tolerant and non-calcified organisms, respectively. However, \r these projected biological changes in the ocean raise questions \r about how individuals, communities and food webs will respond to \r the multiple impacts from climatic and non-climatic stressors in the \r future, and the feedbacks of the effects of their ecological impacts \r on modifying the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the \r [...]"


id: d4f60eb5be9ac52c5689f7297e9e28e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34790
content:
"[...] ocean (Schaum et al. 2013; Boyd et al. 2016; O'Brien et al. 2016; \r Moore, 2018). This section focuses on addressing these questions in \r order to assess the future risk of impacts of climate change on the \r epipelagic ecosystem."


id: 2a1c1de586a5e6a4a0a46ff124b8844
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4620
content:
"WGII AR5 concludes that multiple climatic hazards from ocean \r acidification, hypoxia and decrease in nutrient and food supplies \r pose risks to marine ecosystems, and the risk can be elevated when \r combined with warming (Riebesell and Gattuso, 2014; Gattuso et al. \r 2015). In a recent meta-analysis of 632 published experiments, \r primary production by temperate non-calcifying plankton increases \r with elevated temperature and CO2, whereas tropical plankton \r decreases productivity because of acidification (Nagelkerken and \r Connell, 2015). Also, temperature increases consumption and \r metabolic rates of herbivores but not secondary production; the \r latter decreases with acidification in calcifying and non-calcifying \r species. These effects together create a mismatch with carnivores \r whose metabolic and foraging costs increase with temperature \r (Nagelkerken and Connell, 2015). Warming may also exacerbate \r the effects of ocean acidification on the rate of photosynthesis in \r [...]"


id: 4cda34ee3b868d0c1ff5c78a508c383
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10793
content:
"[...] phytoplankton (Lefevre, 2016). There is some, but limited, reports of \r observed impacts on calcified pelagic organisms that are attributed \r to secular trend in ocean acidification and warming (Harvey et al. \r 2013; Kroeker et al. 2013; Nagelkerken et al. 2015; Boyd et al. 2016). \r For example, Rivero-Calle et al. (2015) reported, using CPR archives, \r that stocks of coccolithophores (a group of phytoplankton that forms \r calcium carbonate plateles) have increased by 2% to over 20% in \r the north Atlantic over the last five decades, and that this increase \r is linked to synergistic effects of increasing anthropogenic CO2 and \r rising temperatures, as supported by their statistical analysis and \r a number of experimental studies. Most of the available evidence "


id: 5b61c946c24756da1d5fe47c77937782
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13320
content:
"While analysis of outputs from CMIP5 ESMs project that global \r average NPP and biomass of phytoplankton community will decrease \r in the 21st century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (see Section 5.2.2.6). \r However, the future risk of impacts of epipelagic ecosystem can \r also depend on changes in community structure of phytoplankton \r species. Barton et al. (2016) projected the biogeography of 87 taxa \r of phytoplankton (diatoms and dinoflagellates) in the north Atlantic \r to 2051-2100 relative to the past (1951-2000) with scenarios of \r changes in temperature and other ocean conditions such as salinity, \r density and nutrients under RCP8.5. The study found that 74% of the \r studied taxa exhibit a poleward shift at a median rate of 12.9 km \r per decade, but 90% of the taxa shift eastward at a  median rate \r of 42.7 km per decade. Such changes may affect food webs and \r biogeochemical cycles, and with consequence to the productivity of \r [...]"


id: 8b53c550732aa42901f25baf4183cf41
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21674
content:
"Outputs from CMIP5 ESMs suggest that projected warming and \r reduction in nutrient availability in low latitudes, as a result of \r increasing stratification of the ocean under climate change, will \r increase the dominance of small-sized phytoplankton, growing \r more efficiently than larger taxa at low nutrient levels (Dutkiewicz \r et  al. 2013b). Dominant groups in subtropical oceans, like the \r picoplanktonic cyanobacteria Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus, \r are projected to expand their range of distribution towards higher \r latitudes and increase their abundances by 14-29%, respectively, \r under a future warmer ocean (Flombaum et  al. 2013), although \r synergistic effects of warming and CO2 on photosynthetic rates \r could lead to a dominance of Synechococcus over Prochlorococcus\r (Fu et al. 2007) (low confidence). Similarly, temperature-driven range \r shifts towards higher latitudes are also likely for tropical diazotrophic \r [...]"


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vector_id: 6146
content:
"[...] (N2-fixing) cyanobacteria, although they could disappear from parts \r of their current tropical ranges where future warming may exceed \r their maximum thermal tolerance limits (Hutchins and Fu, 2017) \r (low confidence). Modelling experiments show that the effects of \r warming on phytoplankton community will be exacerbated by ocean \r acidification at levels expected in the 21st century for RCP8.5, leading \r to increasing growth rate responses of some phytoplankton groups, \r such as diazotrophs and Synechococcus, with predicted increases in \r biomass up to 10% in tropical and subtropical waters (Dutkiewicz \r et al. 2015) (low confidence). Furthermore, warming is projected to \r interact with decreasing oxygen levels and increases in iron in the \r nutrient-impoverished subtropical waters, favoring the dominance of \r the diazotrophic colonial cyanobacteria Trichodesmium (Sohm et al. \r 2011; Boyd et  al. 2013; Ward et  al. 2013; Hutchins and Fu, 2017) \r (medium confidence)."


id: 94042aaf00538fb3abf925b012e66f43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23246
content:
"Future projections on zooplankton distribution and biomass\r An ensemble of 12 CMIP5 ESMs project average declines of \r 6.4  +-  0.79% (95% confident limits) and 13.6 +- 1.70%) in \r zooplankton biomass in the 21st century relative to 1990-1999 \r historical values under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (Kwiatkowski et  al. \r 2019). Also, production of mesozooplankton is projected from \r a single ESM to decrease by 7.9% between 1951-2000 and 2051-\r 2100 under RCP8.5 (Stock et al. 2014). Such projected decreases \r in zooplankton biomass and production are partly contributed \r by climate-induced reduction in phytoplankton production and \r trophic transfer efficiency particularly in low-latitude ecosystems \r (Stock et al. 2014) (5.2.2.6). The impacts may be larger than these \r projections if changes in the relative abundance of carbon, nitrogen \r and phosphorus are considered by the models (Kwiatkowski et al. \r 2019). The overall projected decrease in zooplankton biomass is \r [...]"


id: ac3fd3daaae92ae08224a508ada405a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27548
content:
"[...] characterised by a strong latitudinal differences, with the largest \r decrease in tropical regions and increase in the polar regions, \r particularly the Arctic Ocean (Chust et al. 2014; Stock et al. 2014; \r Kwiatkowski et al. 2019) (Chapter 3) (high agreement). However, \r the projected increase in zooplankton biomass in the polar \r region may be affected by the seasonality of light cycle at high \r latitudes that may limit the bloom season at high latitude (Sundby \r et  al. 2016). The projected decrease in zooplankton abundance, \r particularly in tropical regions, can impact marine organisms higher \r in the foodweb, including fish populations that are important to \r fisheries (Woodworth-Jefcoats et al. 2017). Therefore, there is high \r agreement in model projections that global zooplankton biomass \r will very likely reduce in the 21st century, with projected decline \r under RCP8.5 almost doubled that of RCP2.6 (very likely). However, \r [...]"


id: 4840fc9fad8ac21450985340fe924c8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9925
content:
"[...] the strong dependence of the projected declines on phytoplankton \r production (low confidence, 5.2.2.6) and simplification in \r representation of the zooplankton communities and foodweb \r render their projections having low confidence."


id: 3bfdad45e8afd1889398cc93c475518c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7746
content:
"Regional differences in the changes in phytoplankton community \r and their impacts on epipelagic ecosystem are however complex \r and depends on multiple interactions of co-varying climate change \r stressors at regional level (Boyd and Hutchins, 2012). Based on \r global ocean model simulations, Boyd et  al. (2015b) show that \r the interaction between warming, increased CO2 and a decline in \r phosphate and silicate would benefit coccolithophores against \r diatoms in the northern north Atlantic, despite decreasing rates \r of calcification. Evidence, based on long-term experiments of \r acclimation or adaptation to increasing temperatures in combination \r with elevated CO2, show that individual growth and carbon fixation \r rates of coccolithophores at high CO2 are modulated by temperature, \r light, nutrients and UV radiation, and could increase calcification \r while the responses are also species-specific (Lohbeck et al. 2012; \r [...]"


id: 2de2a7b4b645fe63d4dcdb63251885ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5353
content:
"[...] Khanna et al. 2013). Calcification of planktonic foraminifera will be \r however negatively affected by acidification (Roy et al. 2015), and \r their populations are predicted to experience the greatest decrease \r in diversity and abundance in sub-polar and tropical areas, under \r RCP8.5 (Brussaard et al. 2013), however environmental controls of \r calcite production by foraminifera are still poorly understood (low \r confidence). Boyd et al. (2015b) analysis indicate also that diatoms \r would benefit from the synergistic effects of increased warming \r and iron supply in the northern Southern Ocean, as supported by \r laboratory experiments and field studies with polar diatoms (Rose \r et  al. 2009) (low confidence). At low-latitude provinces, projected \r concurrent increases of CO2 and iron, and decreases in both nitrate \r and phosphate supply, may favour nitrogen fixers, but with ocean "


id: 4af0bbdc58715e1a51d4a88c08347ef0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10425
content:
"Garzke et al. 2016), with results ranging from no effects (Weydmann \r et al. 2012; McConville et al. 2013; Cripps et al. 2014; Alguero-Muniz \r et al. 2016; Bailey et al. 2016), to negative effects (Lischka et al. 2011; \r Cripps et  al. 2014; Alguero-Muniz et  al. 2017) or positive effects \r (Alguero-Muniz et  al. 2017; Taucher et  al. 2017). These differences \r in response can affect trophic interactions between zooplankton \r species; for example, some predatory non-calcifying zooplankton \r may perform better under warmer and lower pH conditions, leading \r to increased predation on other zooplankton species (Caron and \r Hutchins, 2012; Winder et al. 2017). Therefore, the large variation in \r sensitivity between zooplankton to future conditions of warming and \r ocean acidification suggests elevated risk on community structure and \r inter-specific interactions of zooplankton in the 21st century (medium \r confidence). Consideration of these species-specific responses may \r [...]"


id: fd9f78c184fbf3dbe37f17ab22e448c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41971
content:
"Warming and decrease in oxygen content is projected to impact \r growth of fishes, leading to reduction in body size and contraction \r of suitable environmental conditions (Deutsch et al. 2015; Pauly and \r Cheung, 2017), with the intensity of impacts being directly related \r to the level of climate change. The projected reduction in abundance \r of larger-bodied fishes could reduce predation and exacerbate the \r increase in dominance of smaller-bodied fishes in the epipelagic \r ecosystem (Lefort et al. 2015). Fishes exposed to ocean acidification \r level expected under RCP8.5 showed impairments of sensory ability \r and alteration of behaviour including olfaction, hearing, vision, \r homing and predator avoidance (Kroeker et  al. 2013; Heuer and \r Grosell, 2014; Nagelkerken et  al. 2015). The combined effects of \r warming, ocean deoxygenation and acidification in the 21st century \r are projected to exacerbate the impacts on the body size, growth, \r [...]"


id: 680af9864a17b903c85a1dcd9ea6895c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15572
content:
"[...] reproduction and mortality of fishes, and consequently increases \r their risk of population decline (medium evidence, high agreement, \r high confidence)."


id: 7528b06240fb75544fbf9bfc89917cf4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17846
content:
"Future projections on fish distribution, size and biomass\r Recent model projections since AR5 and SR15 continue to support \r global-scale range shifts of marine fishes at rates of tens to \r hundreds of km per decade in the 21st century, with rate of shifts \r being substantially higher under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6 (Jones and \r Cheung, 2015; Robinson et al. 2015; Morley et al. 2018). Globally, \r the general direction of range shifts of epipelagic fishes is poleward \r (Jones and Cheung, 2015; Robinson et al. 2015), while the projected \r directions of regional and local range shifts generally follow \r temperature gradients (Morley et al. 2018). Polewards range shifts \r are projected to result in decreases in species richness in tropical \r oceans, and increases in mid to high-latitude regions leading to \r global-scale species turnover (sum of species local extinction and \r expansion) (Ben Rais Lasram et al. 2010; Jones and Cheung, 2015; \r [...]"


id: c250bf8551b88004c7634da66745baf9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31470
content:
"[...] Cheung and Pauly, 2016; Molinos et al. 2016) (medium confidence \r on trends, low confidence on magnitude because of model \r uncertainties and limited number of published model simulations). \r For example, species turnover relative to their present day richness \r in the tropical oceans (30oN-30oS) is projected to be 14-21% and \r 37-39% by 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 under RCP8.5 (ranges \r of mean projections from two sets of simulation for marine fish \r distributions) (Jones and Cheung, 2015; Molinos et  al. 2016). In \r contrast, high-latitude regions (>60oN-60oS) is projected to have \r higher rate of species turnover than the tropics (an average of 48% \r between the two data sets for region >60oN). The high species \r turnover in the Arctic is explained by species' range expansion from \r lower-latitude and the relatively lower present day fish species "


id: cd82d83fcbd48f47d38c16d6548728b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33487
content:
"and play a secondary role in affecting the projected changes in \r biomass (Blanchard et al. 2012; Fernandes et al. 2013; Carozza et al. \r 2016; Cheung et al. 2016a). Overall, potential total marine animal \r biomass is projected to decrease by  4.3 +- 2.0% (95% confident \r intervals) and 15.0 +- 5.9% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, \r by 2080-2099 relative to 1986-2005, while the decrease is around \r 4.9% by 2031-2050 across all RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (very likely) \r (Figure 5.14). Accounting for the  removal of biomass by fishing \r exacerbates the decrease in biomass  for large-bodied animals \r which are particularly sensitive to fishing (likely for the direction \r of changes). Regionally, total animal biomass decreases largely in \r tropical and mid-latitude oceans (very likely) (Table 5.3, Figure 5.14) \r (Bryndum-Buchholz et al. 2019). The high uncertainty and the low \r confidence in the projection in the Arctic Ocean (Chapter 3) is \r [...]"


id: 2872c5d5b029e5bb6c559e895d64f198
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4322
content:
"[...] because of the large variations in simulation results for this region \r between the ESMs and between the FISHMIP models, as well as \r the insufficient understanding of the oceanographic changes and \r their biological implications in the Arctic Ocean. In the Southern \r Ocean, the decrease in consumer biomass is mainly in the southern \r Indian Ocean while other parts of the Southern Ocean are projected \r to have an increase in animal biomass by 2100 under RCP8.5, \r reflecting mainly the projected pattern of changes in NPP from the \r ESMs (see Section 5.2.2.6)."


id: 640439d6fff18bcaea933464dd80dd55
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14882
content:
"A wide range of studies, from laboratory experiments, mesocosm \r enclosures, synthesis of observations to modeling experiments, \r provide insights into how the multi-faceted components of the \r 'biological pump' (the physical and biologically mediated processes \r responsible for transporting organic carbon from the upper ocean \r to depth) are projected to be altered in the coming decades. \r A synthesis of the individual components reported to both influence \r the performance of the biological pump, and which are sensitive \r to changing ocean conditions, is presented in Table 5.4. The table \r lists the putative controlling of each environmental factor, such as \r warming, that influences the biological pump, and the reported \r modification (where available) of each individual factor by changing \r ocean conditions for both the epipelagic ocean and the deep \r ocean. Analyses of long-term trends in primary production and \r [...]"


id: 544984649fd8759a0fd4c03bc82968d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12105
content:
"[...] particle export production, as well as model simulations, reveal that \r increasing temperatures, leading to enhanced stratification and \r nutrient limitation, will have the greatest influence on decreasing the \r flux of particulate organic carbon (POC) to the deep ocean (Bopp \r et al. 2013; Boyd et al. 2015a; Fu et al. 2016; Laufkotter et al. 2016). \r However, different lines of evidence (including observation, modeling \r and experimental studies) provide low confidence on the mechanistic \r understanding of how climatic drivers affect different components of \r the biological pump in the epipelagic ocean, as well as changes in \r the efficiency and magnitude of carbon export in the deep ocean (see \r section below and Table 5.4); this renders the projection of future \r contribution of the biological carbon pump to the export of POC to \r the deep ocean having low confidence."


id: 6ee6c1c4c12f69bba5f425f8fdbb4880
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16783
content:
"5.2.3.2.2 Future changes in the deep ocean\r The global magnitude of the biological pump and how this will be \r affected by climate change is also uncertain. Model-based studies \r agree in projecting a global decline in particle gravitational flux \r to the deep sea floor, but with regional variability in both the \r total particle export flux and transfer efficiency (DeVries and \r Weber, 2017; Sweetman et  al. 2017) (see Sections 5.2.2 and \r 5.2.4). However, recent evidence suggest that other physical \r and biological processes may contribute nearly as much as the \r gravitational flux to the carbon transport from the surface to the \r deep ocean (Boyd et al. 2019), with low confidence on the future \r rate of change in magnitude and direction of these processes. \r In particular, the 'active flux' of organic carbon due to vertical \r migration of zooplankton and fishes has been reported to account \r from 10 to 40% of the gravitational sinking flux (Bianchi et  al. \r [...]"


id: c2168eebd5d02d8681604550bc97c1f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31442
content:
"[...] 2013; Davison et  al. 2013; Hudson et  al. 2014; Jonasdottir et  al. \r 2015; Aumont et al. 2018; Gorgues et al. 2019). Predictions based \r on model studies suggest that mesopelagic zooplankton and fish \r communities living at deep scattering layers (DSLs) will increase \r their biomass by 2100, enhancing their trophic efficiency, because \r of deep-ocean warming (Section 5.2.2.1; Figures 5.2 and 5.3) and \r shallowing of DSL (Proud et al. 2017) (low confidence). Expansion \r of OMZs (see Section 5.2.2.4) will also widen the DSL and increase \r the exposure of mesopelagic organisms to shallower depths (Gilly \r et al. 2013; Netburn and Anthony Koslow, 2015). In the California \r Current, the abundance of mesopelagic fishes is closely tied to \r variations in the OMZ, whose dynamic is linked to the Pacific \r Decadal Oscillation and ENSO cycles (Koslow et  al. 2015). Some \r large predators, like the Humboldt squid, could indirectly benefit \r [...]"


id: 1db2e77eb0a163237c8e928482586d2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2409
content:
"[...] from expanding OMZs due to the aggregation of their primary \r food source, myctophid fishes (Stewart et al. 2014). However, many \r non-adapted fish and invertebrates (like diurnal vertical migrators) \r will have their depth distributions compressed, affecting the carbon \r transport and trophic efficiency of food webs in the mesopelagic \r (Stramma et  al. 2011; Brown and Thatje, 2014; Rogers, 2015) \r (low confidence). In OMZ waters, where zooplankton is almost \r absent, like in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific, the microbial \r remineralisation efficiency of sinking particles would be reduced, \r eventually increasing the transfer efficiency of organic matter to \r the deep ocean and thus biological carbon storage (Cavan et  al. \r 2017) (low confidence; Table 1). However, increases in ocean \r temperature may also lead to shallower remineralisation of POC \r in warm tropical regions, counteracting the storage of carbon in \r [...]"


id: 7b4d42222247d6422939b84beb243a57
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18895
content:
"[...] the dark ocean (Marsay et al. 2015). Overall, the direct impacts of \r climate change on the biological pump are not well understood for \r the deep pelagic organisms and ecosystems (Portner et al. 2014), \r and there is low confidence on the effect of climate change drivers \r on biological processes in the deep ocean (Table 5.1)."


id: 2b8e7e87fb021018ba625015c87f7663
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4918
content:
"Most deep seafloor ecosystems globally are experiencing rising \r temperatures, declining oxygen levels, and elevated CO2, leading \r to lower pH and carbonate undersaturation (WGII AR5 30.5.7; \r Section 5.2.2.3). Small changes in exposure to these hazards by deep \r seafloor ecosystem have been confirmed by observation over the \r past 50 years. However, analysis using direct seafloor observations \r of these hazards over the past 15-29 years suggest that the \r environmental conditions are highly variable over time because of \r the strong and variable influences by ocean conditions from the \r sea surface (Frigstad et  al. 2015; Thomsen et  al. 2017). Such high \r environmental variability makes it difficult to attribute observed \r trends to anthropogenic drivers using existing datasets (Smith et al. \r 2013; Hartman et  al. 2015; Soltwedel et  al. 2016; Thomsen et  al. \r 2017) (high confidence). Projections from global ESMs suggest large \r [...]"


id: 3fd58ad649e884a91344f8438fb1ee54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8422
content:
"[...] changes for temperature by 2100 and beyond under RCP8.5 (relative \r to present day variation) (Mora et al. 2013; Sweetman et al. 2017; \r FAO, 2019). The magnitude of the projected changes is lower under \r RCP2.6, and in some cases the direction of projected change to 2100 \r varies regionally under either scenario (FAO, 2019) (high confidence)."


id: 37055056154b6b24399c57d169d3c2ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6907
content:
"Abyssal communities (3000-6000 m) cover over 50% of the ocean's \r surface and are considered to be extremely food limited (Gage and \r Tyler, 1992; Smith et al. 2018). There is a strong positive relationship \r between surface primary production, export flux, and organic matter \r supply to the abyssal seafloor (Smith et  al. 2008), with pulses of \r surface production reflected as carbon input on the deep seafloor in \r days to months (Thomsen et al. 2017). Both vertical and horizontal \r transport contribute organic matter to the sea floor (Frischknecht \r et al. 2018). Food supply to the seafloor regulates faunal biomass, \r explaining the strong positive relationships documented between \r surface production and seafloor faunal biomass in the Pacific Ocean \r (Smith et al. 2013), Gulf of Mexico (Wei et al. 2011) and north Atlantic \r Ocean (Hartman et al. 2015). Extended time series and broad spatial \r coverage reveal strong positive relationship between annual POC \r [...]"


id: ba4644d5c604ceb7a6a5a39fd58da66b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29992
content:
"[...] flux and abyssal sediment community oxygen consumption (Rowe \r et al. 2008; Smith et al. 2016a). Observed reduction in in POC flux \r at the abyssal seafloor enhances the relative importance of the \r microbial loop and reduces the importance of benthic invertebrates in \r carbon transfer (Dunlop et al. 2016) (single study, limited evidence). \r However, changes in the overlying mesopelagic and bathypelagic \r communities (see Section 5.2.3.2) will also affect food flux to the \r deep seafloor, as nekton and zooplankton transfer energy to depth \r through diel (daily day-night) vertical migrations, ontogenetic (life \r staged-based) migrations and falls of dead carcasses (Gage, 2003). "


id: b88919dcb8e50ab0af81cabe55cfc7b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29675
content:
"Therefore, climate change impacts on organic carbon export \r from the epipelagic (Section 5.2.3.1) and deeper pelagic systems \r (Section  5.2.3.2) can affect the energy available to support the \r abyssal seafloor ecosystems (medium confidence). However, because \r observations on historical changes in POC flux in abyssal seafloor \r ecosystems are limited to a few locations, long-term records show \r high variability, and mechanistic understanding of factors affecting \r the biological carbon pump is incomplete, there is limited evidence \r that the abyssal seafloor ecosystem has already been affected by \r changes in POC flux as a result of climate change. The metabolic \r rate of deep seafloor ectotherms, and consequently their demand for \r food, increases with temperature. Thus, observed warming in deep \r sea ecosystems (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. 2014) (Section 5.2.2.2.1) \r is expected to increase the sensitivity of deep seafloor biota to \r [...]"


id: ae30dbf70c9a86f652bb6c0186ef6317
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27883
content:
"[...] decrease in food supplies associated with a change in POC flux \r (high confidence). However, there is limited evidence of observed \r changes in abyssal biota. Small deep sea biota demonstrate \r increased efficiency (effective use of food energy for growth and \r metabolism with minimal loss) at low food inputs (due to small size \r and dominance by prokaryotic taxa) (Gambi et al. 2017). Adaptation \r to low food availability in abyssal ecosystems may confer higher \r capacity to adjust to reduced food availability than for shallow biota "


id: e83697df6bdd33d674e7a97c628ea08a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38184
content:
"The globally integrated export flux of carbon is projected to decrease \r in the open ocean in the 21st century under RCP2.6 (by 1.6-4.9%) \r and RCP8.5 (by 8.9-15.8%) relative to 2000 (medium confidence) \r (Section 5.2.2.6). This change in export flux of carbon is projected \r to yield declines in POC flux at the abyssal seafloor (representing \r food supply to benthos) of up to -27% in the Atlantic and up to \r -31 to -40% in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with some increases \r in polar regions (Sweetman et al. 2017). In some models, additional \r dissolution of calcium carbonate due to ocean acidification further \r lowers POC flux, causing the projected export production declines to \r be up to 38% at the northeast Atlantic seafloor (Jones et al. 2014). \r Lower POC fluxes to the abyss reduce food supply and have been \r projected to cause a size-shift towards smaller organisms (Jones et al. \r 2014), resulting in rising respiration rates, lower biomass production \r [...]"


id: f5271049aa3ba2be4771643587c3f640
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40495
content:
"[...] efficiency, and lesser energy transfer to higher trophic levels (Brown \r et  al. 2004) (medium confidence). Changes are projected to be \r largest for macrofauna and lesser and similar for megafauna and \r meiofauna (Jones et  al. 2014) (limited evidence, low confidence). "


id: cecd9aee2f2ab15537e71ec9fd888afc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33724
content:
"Projections using outputs from seven CMIP5 models suggest that \r 97.8 +- 0.6% (95% CI) of the abyssal seafloor area will experience \r a  biomass decline by 2091-2100 relative to 2006-2015 under \r RCP8.5. The projected decreases in overall POC flux to the abyssal \r seafloor are projected to cause a 5.2-17.6% reduction in seafloor \r biomass in 2090-2100, relative to 2006-2015 under RCP8.5 (Jones \r et al. 2014). The projected impacts on abyssal seafloor biomass are \r significantly larger under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (Jones et  al. 2014). \r However, existing estimates are based on total POC flux changes \r and do not account for changes in the type or quality of the sinking \r material, to which macrofaunal and meiofaunal invertebrates are \r highly sensitive (Smith et al. 2008; Smith et al. 2009; Tittensor et al. \r 2011). The projections also do not account for direct faunal responses \r to changes in temperature, oxygen or the carbonate system, all of \r [...]"


id: ee37ec92e05070878c82a63299c1c0fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39282
content:
"[...] which will influence benthic responses to changing food availability \r (AR5 Chapter 30.5.7), reducing to medium confidence the risk \r assessment that is based on these projections (Figure 5.16)."


id: 1314b8a478f82b4bdeaab43849df3046
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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vector_id: 570
content:
"In some regions, observational records document changing \r conditions in bathyal ecosystems (Levin, 2018; Section 5.2.2.4). In the \r Northeast Pacific continental slopes associated with the California \r Current ecosystem, observations over the past 25 years show high \r variability but an overall trend of decreasing ocean oxygen and \r pH levels with oxygen declines of up to 40% and pH declines of \r 0.08  units in California. (Goericke et  al. 2015) (high agreement, \r robust evidence, high confidence). Large oxygen declines are linked \r to past warming events on continental margins, over multiple time \r scales from 1-100 ky (Dickson et al. 2012; Moffitt et al. 2015). Studies \r across modern oxygen gradients on slopes reveal that suboxic \r (5-10 mMol kg-1 O2) values lead to loss of biodiversity of fish (Gallo \r and Levin, 2016), invertebrates (Levin, 2003; Gallo and Levin, 2016; \r Sperling et al. 2016), and protozoans (Bernhard and Reimers, 1991; \r [...]"


id: 402454b8489193bae9414c2a0371c3f6
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8473
content:
"[...] Gooday et al. 2000; Moffitt et al. 2014) (high confidence). Shoaling \r oxyclines on continental slopes have altered depth distributions \r of multiple co-occurring echinoid species over the past 25 years \r (Sato et al. 2017) and can reduce the growth rate, and change the \r skeletal structure and biochemical composition of a common sea \r urchin (Sato et  al. 2018). In central Pacific oceanic canyons, fish \r abundance and diversity are reduced at 4 to 5 times higher oxygen \r concentrations than on continental slopes (<31 mMol  kg-1  O2) \r (De  Leo et  al. 2012). Low oxygen on continental slopes causes \r reductions in faunal body size and bioturbation (Diaz and Rosenberg, \r 1995; Levin, 2003; Middelburg and Levin, 2009; Sturdivant et  al. \r 2012), simplification of trophic structure reducing energy flow to \r upper trophic levels (Sperling et al. 2013), shifts in carbon processing \r pathways from metazoans to protozoans (Woulds et al. 2009), and \r [...]"


id: 8652242555aee9e6352347ffe97b43ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20791
content:
"[...] reduced colonisation potential (Levin et  al. 2013). These changes \r are expected to lead to altered ecosystem structure and function, \r with lower carbon burial (Smith et al. 2000; Levin and Dayton, 2009) \r (medium confidence). Both carbon sequestration and nitrogen \r recycling are highly sensitive to small changes in oxygenation within \r the suboxic zone (Deutsch et al. 2011)."


id: 72f06e4aec082b4335603ab083f096ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17468
content:
"Regionally, while reductions in POC flux are projected at low and \r mid latitudes in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans, increases are \r projected at high latitudes associated in part with reduction in sea ice \r cover (Yool et al. 2013; Rogers, 2015; Sweetman et al. 2017; Yool et al. \r 2017; FAO 2019) (see Chapter 3) (medium confidence). Notably, Arctic \r and Southern Ocean POC fluxes at the abyssal seafloor are projected \r to increase by up to 38% and 21%, respectively by 2100 under \r RCP8.5 (Sweetman et al. 2017). While an increase in food supply may \r yield higher benthic biomass at high latitudes, warmer temperatures \r and reduced pH projected for the polar regions (Chapter 3) would \r elevate faunal metabolic demands, likely diminishing the benefit of \r elevated food supply to an unknown extent (Sweetman et al. 2017). \r Overall, given the limited food availability for fauna in the abyssal \r plains and the projected warming (Section 5.2.2.2.2) that increases \r [...]"


id: 502cfd58edde6e8f25a38aa56a7ff52b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11393
content:
"[...] the demand for food to support the elevated metabolic rates, the \r projected decrease in influx of organic matter and seafloor biomass \r will result in high risks of impacts to abyssal ecosystems by the end \r of the 21st century under RCP8.5 (medium confidence) (Figure 5.16). \r The risk of impacts is projected to be substantially lower under \r RCP4.5 or RCP2.6 (high confidence). The impacts on abyssal seafloor \r ecosystems affect functions that are important to support ecosystem \r services (see Section 5.4.1). For example, smaller-sized organisms \r exhibit reduced bioturbation intensity and depth of mixing causing \r reduced carbon sequestration (Smith et al. 2008) (Figure 5.15)."


id: b225b2c49ba10126df2eb345f2019f06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28571
content:
"Mean temperature (warming) signals are projected to emerge from \r background variability before 2040 in canyons of the Antarctic, \r northwest  Atlantic, and South Pacific (FAO, 2019). Enhanced \r stratification and change in the intensity and frequency of downwelling \r processes under atmospheric forcing (including storms and density\u0002driven cascading events would alter organic matter transported \r through canyons (Allen and Durrieu de Madron, 2009) (low confidence). \r Changes in the quantity and quality of transferred particulate organic \r matter, as well as physical disturbance during extreme events cause \r a complex combination of positive and negative impacts at different \r depths along the canyon floor (Canals et  al. 2006; Pusceddu et  al. \r 2010). Canyons and slopes are recognised as hosting many methane \r seeps and other chemosynthetic habitats (e.g., whale and wood falls) \r supported by massive transport of terrestrial organic matter (Pruski \r [...]"


id: 32518d7f62b34f77d4255e1ec21b379
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6112
content:
"Continental slopes, seamounts and canyons (200-2500 m) are \r projected to experience significant warming, pH decline, oxygen loss \r and decline in POC flux by 2081-2100 (compared to 1951-2000) \r under RCP8.5 (Table 5.5). In contrast, the average changes are \r projected to be 30-50% less under RCP2.6 (Table 5.5) by 2081-2100. \r Most ocean regions at bathyal depths (200-2500 m) except the \r Southern and Arctic Oceans are predicted to experience on average \r declining export POC flux under RCP8.5 by 2081-2100 (Yool et al. \r 2017; FAO, 2019) with the largest declines of 0.7-8.1 mg C m-2 d-1 in \r the Northeast Atlantic (FAO, 2019). There is a strong macroecological \r relationship between depth, export POC flux, biomass and zonation \r of macrobenthos on continental slopes (Wei et al. 2011), such that \r lower POC fluxes will alter seafloor community biomass and structure \r (medium confidence) (See also Section 5.2.4.1). This is modified on \r [...]"


id: fd718b0d044013610edfe1df23724643
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41943
content:
"[...] the local scale by near-bottom currents, which alter sediment grain \r size, food availability, and larval dispersal (Wei et al. 2011)."


id: 9552ea185de82f45d81d3c5865d23cae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23471
content:
"Table 5.5 | Projected climate changes from the present to 2081-2100 given as mean (min, max) at the deep seafloor for continental slopes, canyons, seamounts and \r cold water corals mapped from 200-2500 m under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Projections are based on three 3D, fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) (as part of CMIP5): \r the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's ESM 2G (GFDL-ESM-2G); the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace's CM6-MR (IPSL-CM5A-MR); and (iii) the Max Planck Institute's \r ESM-MR (MPI-ESM-MR). Export flux at 100 m was converted to export POC flux at the seafloor (epc) using the Martin curve following the equation: epc = epc100 (depth/\r export depth)-0.858. Projections were made onto the (i) slope from a global ocean basin mask from World Ocean Atlas 2013 V2 (NOAA, 2013), (ii) global distribution of \r submarine canyons with canyon heads shallower than 1500 m (Harris and Whiteway, 2011); (iii) global distribution of seamounts with summits between 200-2500 m \r [...]"


id: 2bb843834a456325c2fc2234f4fab651
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4952
content:
"[...] (Kim et al. 2011); and (iv) global occurrence of cold water corals between 200-2500 m (Freiwald et al. 2017)."


id: 451066e81a171d8de4ff05fbde7793e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9375
content:
"anaerobic methane oxidation (which produces hydrogen sulfide) \r (Boetius and Wenzhoefer, 2013) and expanding cover of methane \r seep communities (limited evidence). Larvae of vent species such \r as bathymodiolin mussels, alvinocarid shrimp, and some limpets \r that develop in or near surface waters (Herring and Dixon, 1998; \r Arellano et al. 2014), are likely to be exposed to warming waters, \r decreasing pH and carbonate saturation states, and in some places, \r reduced phytoplankton availability (Section 5.2.2), causing reduced \r calcification and growth rates (as in shallow water mussel larvae, \r Frieder et  al. (2014)) (limited evidence, low confidence). Larvae \r originating at vents or seeps beneath upwelling regions may also \r be impaired by effects of hypoxia associated with expanding OMZ \r (Stramma et  al. 2008) during migration to the surface (limited \r evidence). Warming and its effects on climate cycles have the \r potential to alter patterns of larval transport and population \r [...]"


id: ceecc873a361e006a1bbc323f173a5b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33744
content:
"[...] connectivity through changes in circulation (Fox et al. 2016) or surface \r generated mesoscale eddies (Adams et al. 2011) (limited evidence; \r low confidence). Climate-induced changes in the distribution and \r cover of vent and seep foundation species may involve alteration \r of attachment substrate, food and refuge for the many habitat\u0002endemic species that rely on them (Cordes et al. 2010) and for the \r surrounding deep sea ecosystems which interact through transport \r of nutrients and microbes, movement of vagrant predators and \r scavengers, and plankton interactions (Levin et  al. 2016) (limited \r evidence; low confidence). There is, however, insufficient analysis of \r faunal symbiont and nutritional requirements, life histories, larval \r transport and cross-system interaction to quantify the extent of the \r consequences described above under future climate conditions. "


id: 2890e478da409ea24ecfe478553a0430
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4346
content:
"Despite having nutrition derived largely from chemosynthetic \r sources fueled by fluids from the earth's interior, hydrothermal \r vent and methane seep ecosystems are linked to surface ocean \r environments and water-column processes in many ways that can \r expose them to aspects of climate change (medium confidence). The \r reliance of vent and seep mussels on surface-derived photosynthetic \r production to supplement chemosynthetic food sources (Riou et al. \r 2010; Riekenberg et al. 2016; Demopoulos et al. 2019), and in some \r cases as a cue for synchronised gametogenesis (sperm and egg \r production) (Dixon et  al. 2006; Tyler et  al. 2007) can make them \r vulnerable to changing amounts or timing of POC flux to the deep \r seabed in most areas except high latitudes, or to changes in timing \r of surface production (see Section 5.2.2.5) (limited evidence) Most \r of the large, habitat-forming (foundation) species at vents and seeps \r [...]"


id: 1aea745309b6874abe046441e6e47e4c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1929
content:
"[...] such as mussels, tubeworms, and clams require oxygen to serve \r as electron acceptor for aerobic hydrogen-, sulfide- and methane \r oxidation (Dubilier et al. 2008) and appear unable to grow under \r dysoxic conditions (<5-10 mmol kg-1 O2) (Sweetman et  al. 2017) \r (medium confidence). The distributions of these taxa at seeps could \r be constrained by climate-driven expansion of midwater oxygen \r minima (Stramma et  al. 2008; Schmidtko et  al. 2017), which is \r occurring at water depths where seep ecosystems typically occur \r on continental margins (200-1000 m). Rising bottom temperatures \r or shifting of warm currents on continental margins could increase \r dissociation of buried gas hydrates on margins (Phrampus \r and Hornbach, 2012) (low confidence) potentially intensifying "


id: 317b749958fb05bec2f0dd68cdb7ac73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5944
content:
"Scleractinian corals have the capacity to acclimate to high CO2 conditions due to their capacity to upregulate the pH at the calcification \r site (Form and Riebesell, 2011; Rodolfo-Metalpa et al. 2015; Gori et al. 2016). The most widely distributed, habitat-forming species in \r deep water (e.g., Lophelia pertusa [renamed Desmophyllum pertusum) (Addamo et al. 2016) can continue to calcify at aragonite \r undersaturation and high CO2 levels projected for 2100 (750-1100 uatm) based on experiments (Georgian et al. 2016; Kurman \r et al. 2017) and observations along the natural gradient of carbon chemistry in their distributions (Fillinger and Richter, 2013; Movilla \r et al. 2014; Baco et al. 2017) (Appendix 1) (robust evidence, medium agreement, medium confidence) and thus appear to be able to\r acclimate to rising CO2 levels (Hennige et al. 2015). However, net calcification rates (difference between calcification and dissolution) \r [...]"


id: 9817e868aa36af2d641256daf492e54e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23971
content:
"[...] of L. pertusa exposed to aragonite-undersaturated conditions (Oarag < 1, where Oarag = aragonite saturation state) often decreases \r to close to zero or even becomes negative (Lunden et al. 2014; Hennige et al. 2015; Buscher et al. 2017), with genetic variability \r underpinning ability to calcify at low aragonite saturation states (Kurman et al. 2017). Additionally, skeletons become longer, thinner \r and weaker (Hennige et al. 2015), and bioerosion is enhanced (e.g., by bacteria, fungi, annelids and sponges) (Schonberg et al. 2017), \r exacerbating effects of dissolution of the skeleton. L. pertusa can calcify when exposed to multiple environmental stresses in the \r laboratory (Hennige et al. 2015; Buscher et al. 2017), but cannot survive with warming above water temperatures of 14oC-15oC or\r oxygen concentrations below 1.6 ml l-1 in the Gulf of Mexico, 3.3 ml l-1 in the north Atlantic, 2 ml l-1 in the Mediterranean, and 0.5-1. \r [...]"


id: 1e753d06b8162b4dfb58a6e466ff95b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2561
content:
"[...] 5 ml l-1 in the SE Atlantic (Brooke et al. 2013; Lunden et al. 2014; Hanz et al. 2019), highlighting the existence of critical thresholds for \r cold water coral populations living at the edge of their tolerance. The role of temporal dynamics, species-specific thermal tolerances, and \r food availability in mediating the response to combinations of stressors is recognised but is still poorly studied under in situ conditions \r (Lartaud et al. 2014; Naumann et al. 2014; Baco et al. 2017)."


id: 78d7866ce982cb0fade8d026914ce418
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18447
content:
"Generally, the deep sea areas where cold water corals may be found are projected to be exposed to multiple climate hazards in the \r 21st century because of the projected ocean warming, oxygen loss, and decrease in POC flux (Table 5.5) under scenarios of greenhouse \r gas emissions. The average changes in these climate hazards for coral-water corals are projected to be almost halved under RCP2.6 \r relative to RCP8.5 (Table 5.5). Under RCP8.5, 95 +- 2% (95% CI) of cold-water coral habitats are projected to experience animal \r biomass decline (-8.6 +- 2.0%) globally by 2091-2100 relative to 2006-2015, driven by a projected 21 +- 9% drop in POC flux \r (medium confidence) (Jones et al. 2014). However, nutritional co-reliance of cold-water corals on zooplankton (Hofer et al. 2018) \r and carbon fixation by symbiotic microbes (Middelburg et al. 2015), is not incorporated into the models, adding uncertainty to these \r [...]"


id: 5b7306b5cefe4f513b33629b93a994de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13331
content:
"[...] estimates. Regionally, suitable habitat for coral-water corals in the NE Atlantic is projected to decrease with multiple climatic \r hazards (warming, acidification, decreases in oxygen and POC flux) under RCP8.5 for 2081-2100 (FAO, 2019), with up to 98% loss \r of suitable habitat by 2099 due to shoaling aragonite saturation horizons. In the Southern hemisphere, a tolerance threshold of 7oC \r and decline of aragonite saturation below that required for survival (Oarag <0.84) can cause large loss of cold water corals habitat \r (Solenosmilia variabilis) on seamounts off Australia and New Zealand under future projections of warming and acidification to 2099 \r at RCP4.5 and nearly complete loss under RCP8.5 (Thresher et al. 2015). "


id: 9ed80bf50d888f9668c2ab8608255e29
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25168
content:
"Overall, cold water corals can survive conditions of aragonite-undersaturation associated with ocean acidification but sensitivity \r varies among species and skeletons will be weakened (medium confidence). The largest impacts on calcification and growth will occur \r when aragonite saturation is accompanied by warming and/or decrease in oxygen concentration beyond the tolerance limits of these \r corals (medium confidence). Given present day occurrence of 95% of cold water corals above the aragonite saturation horizon \r (Guinotte et al. 2006) and that no adaptation has been detected with regard to increased dissolution of exposed aragonite (Eyre et al. \r 2014), there is limited scope for the non-living components of cold water corals and for the large, non-living reef framework that \r comprises deep water reefs to avoid dissolution under RCP8.5 in the 21st century (high confidence). Multiple climatic hazards of \r [...]"


id: 85d99b6c068712be0d0b5446d6ea573f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20692
content:
"[...] warming, deoxygenation, aragonite under-saturation and decrease in POC flux are projected to negatively affect cold water corals\r worldwide from the present day by 2100 (high confidence). Uncertainty remains in the adaptive capacity of living cold water corals \r to cope with these changes and in the influence of altered regional current patterns on connectivity (Fox et al. 2016; Roberts et al. \r 2017). Sponges and the habitat they form may be less vulnerable than cold water corals to warming, acidification and deoxygenation \r that will occur under RCP8.5 in 2100 (low confidence). "


id: a82c78411e56b033daee6f880a5e0f1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26804
content:
"Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) by a factor of 1.44 according to \r changes in an ensemble of RCP8.5 simulations; with an uncertainty \r of about 4% in this scaling factor based on differences between the \r RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The transition values may have an \r error of +-0.3oC depending on the consensus of expert judgment. The \r deep seafloor embers are generated based on earth system model \r projection of climate variables to the seafloor under RCP2.6 and \r RCP8.5 scenarios, and then translated to RCP associated change in \r SST. The assessed confidence in assigning the levels of risk at present \r day and future scenarios are low, medium, high and very high levels \r of confidence. A detailed account of the procedures involved in the \r ember for each type of ecosystem, such as their exposure to climate \r hazards, sensitivity of key biotic and abiotic components, natural \r adaptive capacity, observed impacts and projected risks, and regional \r [...]"


id: abe2fa98ec6aa70f1b09e13015026854
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27480
content:
"[...] hotspots of vulnerability is provided in the SM5.2 and Table 5.5. \r The risk assessment for cold water corals is in agreement with the \r conclusions in AR5 Chapter 6.3.1.4.1, although more recent literature \r is assessed in Box 5.2 and Table SM5.5. "


id: 2a66c939d1658d588ee7161c08254b2d
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4686
content:
"This section synthesises the assessment of climate impacts on open \r ocean and deep seafloor ecosystem structure and functioning and the \r levels of risk under future conditions of global warming (see SM5.2). \r The format for Figure 5.16 matches that of Figure 19.4 of AR5 (Portner \r et al. 2014) and Figure 3.20 of SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018), \r indicating the levels of additional risk as colours (white, yellow, red \r and purple). Each column in Figure 5.16 indicates how risks increase \r with ocean warming, acidification (OA), deoxygenation, and POC flux \r with a focus on present day conditions (2000s) and future conditions \r by the year 2100 under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) CO2 emission \r scenarios. The transition between the levels of risk to each type of \r ecosystem is estimated from key evidence assessed in earlier parts of \r this chapter (Sections 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.2.4). SST is chosen to provide an \r indication of the changes in all these variables because it is closely \r [...]"


id: ac584302a81cd1093db99303a59226fd
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27560
content:
"[...] related to cumulative carbon emission (Gattuso et al. 2015) which \r is the main climatic driver of the hazards. SST scales with Global "


id: 7f1881c1754aedd23db823dc057e26ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19509
content:
"Overall, the upper ocean (0-700 m) and 700-2000 m layers \r have both warmed from 2004 to 2016 (virtually certain) and the \r abyssal ocean continues to warm in the Southern Hemisphere \r (high confidence). The ocean is stratifying; observed warming and \r high-latitude freshening are both surface intensified trends making \r the surface ocean lighter at a faster rate than deeper in the ocean \r (high confidence) (Section 5.2.2.2). It is very likely that stratification \r in the upper few hundred meters of the ocean will increase \r significantly in the 21st century.  It is virtually certain that ocean \r pH is declining by ~0.02 pH units per decade where time series \r observations exist (Section 5.2.2.3). The anthropogenic pH signal \r has already emerged over the entire surface ocean (high confidence) \r and emission scenarios are the most important control of surface \r ocean pH relative to internal variability for most of the 21st century \r [...]"


id: be95211c6a5c42c0bcf0141abfd4ff28
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30792
content:
"[...] at both global and local scale (virtually certain). The oxygen content \r of the global ocean has declined by about 0.5-3.3% in 0-1000 m \r layer (Section  5.2.2.4).  Over the next century oxygen declines of \r 3.5% by 2100 are predicted by CMIP5 models globally (medium \r confidence), with low confidence at regional scales, especially in the \r tropics. The largest changes in the deep sea will occur after 2100 \r (Section 5.2.2.3). CMIP5 models project a decrease in global NPP \r (medium confidence) with increases in high-latitude (low confidence) \r and decreases in low latitude (medium confidence) (Section 5.2.2.6) \r in response to changes in ocean nutrient supply (Section 5.2.2.5). \r These models also project reductions by 8.9-15.8% in the globally \r integrated POC flux for RCP8.5, with decreases in tropical regions \r and increases at higher latitudes (medium confidence), affecting \r the organic carbon supply to the deep sea floor ecosystems (high \r [...]"


id: f27f602b9536de2e85b85aea664664ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40057
content:
"[...] confidence) (Section 5.2.2.6). However, there is low confidence on \r the mechanistic understanding of how climatic drivers will affect \r the different components of the biological pump in the epipelagic \r ocean (Table 5.4). Therefore, the exposure to hazard for epipelagic \r ecosystems ranges from moderate (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5), with \r uncertain effects and tolerance of planktonic organisms, fishes and \r large vertebrates to interactive climate stressors. Major risks are \r predicted for declining productivity and fish biomass in tropical and \r subtropical waters (RCP8.5) (SM5.2). "


id: 54111729e3e4c959d86e347af2a1ed10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12065
content:
"Despite its remoteness, most of the deep seafloor ecosystems \r already have or are projected to experience rising temperatures and \r declining oxygen, pH and POC flux beyond natural variability within \r the next half century (See Section 5.2.4). On slopes, seamounts \r and canyons these changes are projected to be much larger under \r RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 (high confidence), with greatest effects \r on seafloor community diversity and function from expansion of low \r oxygen zones and aragonite undersaturation (medium confidence).\r As critical thresholds of temperature, oxygen and CO2 are exceeded, \r coral species will alter their depth distributions, non-living carbonate \r will experience dissolution and bioerosion, and stress will be \r exacerbated by lower food supply. These changes are projected to \r cause loss of cold water coral habitat with highest climate hazard \r in the Arctic and north Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), while \r [...]"


id: 20c1d0cb9ed13d05e80c3775dea15eff
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2982
content:
"[...] sponges may be more tolerant (Box 5.2) (low confidence). Projected \r changes in food supply to the seafloor at abyssal depths combined \r with warmer temperatures are anticipated to cause reductions in \r biomass and body size (medium confidence) that could affect the \r carbon cycle in this century under RCP8.5 (low confidence). Even \r at hydrothermal vents and methane seeps, some dominant species \r such as mussels may be vulnerable to reduced photosynthetically\u0002based food supply or have planktonic larvae or oxidising symbionts \r that are negatively affected by warming, acidification and oxygen \r loss (low confidence). "


id: d5727d44543144d8237e7302078ec198
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34869
content:
"Widespread attributes of deep seafloor fauna (e.g., great longevity, \r high levels of habitat specialisation including well-defined \r physiological tolerances and thresholds, dependence on \r environmental triggers for reproduction, and highly developed \r mutualistic interactions) can increase the vulnerability of selected \r taxa to changing conditions (FAO, 2019) (medium confidence). \r However, some deep sea taxa (e.g.,  foraminifera and nematodes) \r may be more resilient to environmental change than their shallow\u0002water counterparts (low confidence). Observations, experiments and \r model projections indicate that impacts of climate change have or \r are expected to take place in this century, indicating a transition \r from undetectable risk to moderate risk at <1.5oC warming of sea \r surface temperature for continental slope, canyon and seamount \r habitats, and for cold water corals (Figure 5.16). Emergence of risk is \r [...]"


id: 29583a7771309ece606e643c96a248d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4490
content:
"[...] expected to occur later at around the mid-21st century under RCP8.5 \r for abyssal plain and chemosynthetic ecosystems (vents and seeps) \r (Figure 5.16). All deep seafloor ecosystems are expected to be subject \r to at least moderate risk under RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century, \r with cold water corals experiencing a transition from moderate to \r high risk below 3oC (SM5.2)."


id: 5e7b88efd3825e3f17a054c9e6dcc4be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13915
content:
"The climatic hazards for pelagic organisms from plankton to mammals \r are driving changes in eco-physiology, biogeography and ecology \r and biodiversity (high confidence) (Section 5.2.3.1). Observed and \r projected population declines in the equator-ward range boundary \r (medium confidence), expansion in the poleward boundary (high \r confidence), earlier timing of biological events (high confidence), \r overall shift species composition (high confidence) and decreases in \r animal biomass (medium confidence), are consistent with expected \r responses to climate change (Section 5.2.3; Figure 5.13). It is likely\r that increased OA has not yet caused sufficient reduction in fitness to \r decrease abundances of calcifying phytoplankton and zooplankton, \r but is very likely (high confidence) that calcifying planktonic organisms \r will experience great decreases in abundance and diversity under \r high emission scenarios by the end of the century. Therefore, impacts \r [...]"


id: 579be3443a6103dc5de9061be7d34ecb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12680
content:
"[...] to the epipelagic ecosystems are already observed in the present \r day (Figure 5.16). Based on simulation modelling and experimental \r findings, the combined effects of warming, ocean deoxygenation, OA \r and changes in NPP in the 21st century are projected to exacerbate "


id: ed2752a171f7746ee6e8de00eea56c35
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39100
content:
"The world's shelf seas and coastal waters (hereafter 'coastal seas') \r extend from the coastline to the 200 m water depth contour. They \r encompass diverse ecosystems, including estuaries, sandy beaches, \r kelp forests, mangroves and coral reefs. Although they occupy a small \r part of the global ocean (7.6%), coastal seas provide up to 30% of \r global marine primary production and about 50% of the organic carbon \r supplied to the deep ocean (Chen, 2003; Bauer et al. 2013) (Sections \r 5.2.4.1 and 5.4.1.1). Coastal seas include several frontal and upwelling \r areas (Box 5.3) that support high fisheries yields (Scales et al. 2014), and \r productive coastal ecosystems, such as wetlands (McLeod et al. 2011). \r Mangrove forests, seagrass meadows and kelp forests form important \r habitats supporting high biodiversity while offering opportunities for \r climate change mitigation and adaptation (Section 5.5.1.2) (Duarte \r et  al. 2013), with mangrove forests providing physical protection \r [...]"


id: d5f56fda77e25383c224615501a11a0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34958
content:
"[...] against extreme events such as storms and floods (Kelleway et  al. \r 2017a) (Sections 5.4.1.2 and 4.3.3.5.4). The regional characteristics \r and habitat heterogeneity of many coastal seas support endemic fauna \r and flora (e.g., seagrass meadows in the Mediterranean), which makes \r them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts with high risk \r of diversity loss and alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning \r (Rilov, 2016; Chefaoui et al. 2018)."


id: 877284da8344b8ef6d8cef5640274aa8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20987
content:
"Observations since AR5 provide further evidence that SLR increases \r seawater intrusions and raises salinity in estuaries. Salinisation of \r estuaries can be exacerbated by droughts and modifications of \r drainage area by human activities (Ross et al. 2015; Cardoso-Mohedano \r et al. 2018; Hallett et al. 2018; Zahid et al. 2018). The changing salinity \r gradients in estuaries have been linked to the observed upstream \r expansion of brackish and marine benthic and pelagic communities, \r and a reduction in the diversity and richness of freshwater fauna \r (Robins et al. 2016; Raimonet and Cloern, 2017; Hallett et al. 2018; \r Addino et  al. 2019) (medium confidence). However, because the \r distribution of benthic species in estuaries is strongly determined by \r sediment properties like grain size, the gradient of sediment types in \r estuaries can be a barrier to upstream shifts of brackish and marine \r benthic biota, leading to a reduction in species richness in mid- to \r [...]"


id: 783249079deed5814e252c3f26a7366a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18358
content:
"[...] upper-estuarine areas and altering food webs (Little et  al. 2017; \r Hudson et al. 2018; Addino et al. 2019). Similarly, estuarine wetlands \r (Section 5.3.2) and tidal flats (Murray et al. 2019) have reduced their \r extent and productivity in response to increased salinity, inundation \r and wave exposure, especially in areas with limited capacity \r for soil accretion or inland migration due to coastal squeezing \r (Sections  4.3.2.3, 5.3.2) (high confidence). Poleward migration of \r tropical and sub-tropical biota between estuaries has been observed \r in response to warming (Hallett et al. 2018) (medium confidence), in \r agreement with the global trend of biogeographic shifts of marine \r organisms (Sections 5.2.3.1.1; 5.3.2-5.3.6)."


id: 1d351cb6583ca6d6e6f0cf948443bbc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2312
content:
"Near-shore coastal ecosystems are classified by their geomorphological \r structure (e.g.,  estuaries, sandy beaches and rocky shores) or \r foundation species (e.g., salt marshes, seagrass meadows, mangrove \r forests, coral reefs and kelp forests). All these coastal ecosystems \r are threatened to a varying degree by SLR, warming, acidification, \r deoxygenation and extreme weather events (Sections 5.3.1 to 5.3.7). \r Unlike the open ocean where detection and attribution of climate \r driven-physical and chemical changes are robust (Section 5.2.2), \r coastal ecosystems display regional complexity that can render the \r conclusive detection and attribution of climate effects uncertain. \r The hydrological complexity of coastal ecosystems that affects their \r biota is driven by the interactions between the land (e.g.,  river \r and groundwater discharges), the sea (e.g.,  circulation, tides) \r (Section  5.2.2.2.3) and seabed structures and substrates (Sharples \r [...]"


id: 8a731e2dabfd5a175e17c7f7f77eed24
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21526
content:
"Additionally, the high density of human populations on coastal land \r causes most of the adjacent marine ecosystems to be impacted by \r local anthropogenic disturbances such as eutrophication, coastline \r modifications, pollution and overfishing (Levin et al. 2015; Diop and \r Scheren, 2016; Maavara et al. 2017; Dunn et al. 2018) (Section 4.3.2.2, \r Cross-Chapter Box 9). Climate driven impacts interact with such \r human disturbances and pose a serious risk to ecosystems structure \r and functioning (Gattuso et  al. 2015). Projections of the ecological \r impacts of climate change in coastal ecosystems must therefore deal \r with many emerging complexities such as the differentiation between \r the long-term climate trends (e.g., progressive ocean acidification) and \r the short-term natural fluctuations (Boyd et al. 2018), ranging from the \r seasons to interannual climate oscillations like El Nino. The 'time of \r emergence' for specific climate drivers to exceed background variability \r [...]"


id: 81a6f8d89f528ce26763128281073e27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19939
content:
"[...] varies between ecosystems and is strongly sensitive to projected \r emission scenarios (Hammond et al. 2017; Reusch et al. 2018) (Box 5.1)."


id: bac19a0f58859534869e6c2da10056f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30073
content:
"Fluctuations in estuarine salinity, turbidity and nutrient gradients \r are influenced by changes in precipitation and wind-stress caused \r by large-scale climatic variations such as the ENSO, the NAO and the \r South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (SAMOC) which \r have shown persistent anomalies associated with climate change \r since the 1970s (Wang and Cai, 2013; Delworth and Zeng, 2016; \r Garcia-Moreiras et al. 2018). Similarly, storm surges and heat waves \r have increased nutrients and sediment loads in estuaries (Tweedley \r et  al. 2016; Arias-Ortiz et  al. 2018; Chen et  al. 2018). Sustained \r long-term observations (15-40 years) provide evidence that \r large-scale climatic variations and extreme events affect plankton \r phenology and composition in estuaries worldwide with regional \r differences in the characteristics of the responses (Thompson et al. \r 2015; Abreu et al. 2017; Marques et al. 2017; Arias-Ortiz et al. 2018; \r [...]"


id: 4cf6c708c8c85683f2a72d2562046bf3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10814
content:
"[...] Lopez-Abbate et al. 2019) (high confidence). Although these changes \r in ecosystem components may be attributed to climate variability \r (Box 5.1), they demonstrate the sensitivity of estuarine ecosystems \r to climate change. Also, these large-scale climate events are likely\r to be intensified in the 21st century (Stocker, 2014) (Section 6.5.1)."


id: 4e93a4816de6764ae667a1b59218705b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11094
content:
"Overall, this assessment concludes that there is evidence of upstream \r redistribution of marine biotic communities in estuaries driven by \r increased sea water intrusion (medium confidence). Such distribution \r shifts are limited by physical barriers such as the availability of benthic \r substrates leading to reduction of suitable habitats for estuarine \r communities (medium confidence). Warming has led to poleward \r range shifts of biota between estuaries (medium confidence). \r Increased nutrient inputs from intensive human development in \r deltas increases bacterial respiration, which in turn is exacerbated \r by warming, leading to an expansion of suboxic and anoxic areas \r (high confidence). These changes reduce the survival of estuarine \r animals (medium confidence), and increase the occurrence of HABs \r and pathogenic microbes (medium confidence). Projected warming, \r SLR and tidal changes in the 21st century will continue to expand \r [...]"


id: f21a4f7c79064380c1074f87788dee5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39982
content:
"[...] salinisation and hypoxia in estuaries (medium confidence). These \r impacts will be more pronounced under higher emission scenarios, \r and in temperate and high-latitude estuaries that are eutrophic, \r shallow and that naturally have low sediment supply."


id: c631e627c91802daf0efdd41a98db138
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32178
content:
"Oxygen-depleted dead zones in coastal areas are already a problem; \r they are projected to increase under the co-occurrence and \r intensification of climate threats and eutrophication (Breitburg \r et  al. 2018; Laurent et  al. 2018) (Section 5.2.2.4). While warming \r is the primary climate driver of deoxygenation in the open ocean, \r eutrophication is projected to increase in estuaries due to human \r activities and intensified precipitation increasing riverine nitrogen \r loads under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, both mid-century \r (2031-2060) and later (2071-2100) (Sinha et al. 2017). Moreover, \r enhanced stratification in estuaries in response to warming is also \r expected to increase the risk of hypoxia through reduced vertical \r mixing (Du et al. 2018; Hallett et al. 2018; Warwick et al. 2018).The \r effects of warming will be more pronounced on high-latitude and \r temperate shallow estuaries with limited exchange with the open \r [...]"


id: dbef3a0df0172e4c3cb52f5c5358edea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35980
content:
"[...] ocean (e.g., Rio de La Plata Estuary, Baltic Sea and Chesapeake Bay) \r and seasonality that already leads to dead zone development when "


id: 16b7f1b951880dd1ef059dd5fe0ff8d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1207
content:
"Nearly 50% of the pre-industrial, natural extent of global coastal \r wetlands have been lost since the 19th century (Li et al. 2018a). Such \r a reduction in wetlands is primarily caused by non-climatic drivers \r such as alteration of drainage, agriculture development, coastal \r settlement, hydrological alterations and reductions in sediment \r supply (Adam, 2002; Wang et al. 2014; Kroeger et al. 2017; Thomas \r et al. 2017; Li et al. 2018a). However, large-scale mortality events \r of mangroves from 'natural causes' has also occurred globally since \r the 1960s; ~70% of this loss has resulted from low frequency, \r high intensity weather events, such as tropical cyclones (45%) and \r climatic extremes such as droughts, SLR variations and heat waves \r (Sippo et  al. 2018) (high confidence). In Australia, the mangrove \r loss due to heat waves accounted for 22% of global mangrove \r forests (Sippo et  al. 2018), with negative impacts on ecosystem \r [...]"


id: 3f99a0c95ea7bb127991d1e7ab94b785
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8382
content:
"[...] biodiversity and the provisioning of services (Carugati et al. 2018; \r Saintilan et al. 2018) (Section 5.4). In coastal areas with sufficient \r sediment supply across the Indo-Pacific region, inland expansion \r of mangroves is occurring as a result of vertical accretion and root \r growth, allowing them to keep pace with current SLR (Lovelock \r et al. 2015). In seagrass meadows, temperature is the main limiting \r range factor, and over the past decades there have been several \r global die-off events (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018). The vulnerability \r of seagrasses to warming varies locally depending on soil accretion \r and herbivory (El-Hacen et  al. 2018; Marba et  al. 2018; Verges \r et  al. 2018) and on the population assemblages (e.g.,  expansion \r at high latitudes) (Beca-Carretero et al. 2018; Duarte et al. 2018). \r The compounding effects of heat waves, hypersaline conditions \r and increased turbidity and nutrient levels associated with floods \r [...]"


id: ba03e4f15e3c06fd09d6fc06f6514004
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29948
content:
"[...] have been shown to cause negative changes in the composition \r and biomass of co-occurring seagrass species (Nowicki et  al. \r 2017; Arias-Ortiz et  al. 2018; Lin  et  al. 2018) (high confidence). \r For example, in Shark Bay, Western Australia, a marine heat wave \r in austral summer 2010/2011 caused widespread losses (36% of \r area) of seagrass meadows, with negative implications for carbon \r storage (Arias-Ortiz et al. 2018). The poleward expansion of tropical \r mangroves into subtropical salt marshes as a result of increase in \r temperature has been also observed over the past half century on \r five continents (Saintilan et  al. 2014; Saintilan et  al.  2018) (high \r confidence); for example, in the Texas Gulf Coast (Armitage et al. \r 2015). The loss of open areas with herbaceous plants (salt marshes) \r reduces food and habitat availability for resident and migratory \r animals (Kelleway et al. 2017a; Lin et al. 2018) (Section 5.4.1.2). "


id: f5e4ebf725b538d83dab7af9cd02ca85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40618
content:
"Non-climatic human pressures on wetland ecosystems, including \r overfishing (Crotty et  al. 2017), eutrophication (Legault II et  al. \r 2018), and invasive species (Zhang et al. 2016), interact with climate \r change drivers and affect wetlands composition and structure, with \r the impacts varying between regions and species (Tomas et al. 2015; \r O'Brien et al. 2017; Pages et al. 2017; York et al. 2017). The intensity of \r herbivory on seagrasses is expected to increase with global warming, \r particularly in temperate areas, because of the migration of tropical \r herbivores into temperate seagrass meadows (Hyndes et  al. 2016; \r Verges et al. 2018) (medium confidence, Section 5.2.3.1.1). Warming \r also reduces the fitness of seedlings by increasing necrosis and \r susceptibility to consumers and pathogenic pressure while reducing \r establishment potential and nutritional (Olsen et al. 2016b; Hernan \r et al. 2017). Because herbivores play a key role in modulating the \r [...]"


id: f0eaa06df0cd1a8a590f38d68ed00e93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39751
content:
"[...] biomass of plant communities, their more intense activity affects \r the provision of services in these ecosystems (Scott et  al. 2018) \r (Section 5.4). "


id: 2e2c1d0ea854a5064af68c5138df4a13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5397
content:
"Globally, between 20-90% of existing coastal wetland area is \r projected to be lost by 2100 (Blankespoor et al. 2014; Crosby et al. \r 2016; Spencer et al. 2016), depending on different SLR projections \r under future emission scenarios. These projected changes vary \r regionally and between different types of wetlands. Gaining area \r may be possible, at least locally, if vertical sediment accretion \r occurs together with lateral re-accommodation (Brown et  al. \r 2018b; Schuerch et  al. 2018) (Section 4.3.3.5.1). Local losses may \r also be higher; for example, in New England, where regional rates \r of SLR have been as much as 50% greater than the global average \r (from 1-5.83 mm yr-1; 1979-2015) (Watson et al. 2017a) and where \r projections suggest that 40-95% of salt marshes will be submerged \r by the end of this century (Valiela et al. 2018). In some species of \r seagrasses, enhanced temperature-driven flowering (Ruiz-Frau \r [...]"


id: 42c20a45829f1ad89b41f05e6292b79c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8942
content:
"[...] et al. 2017) and greater biomass production in response to elevated \r CO2 (Campbell and Fourqurean, 2018) may increase resilience to \r warming. Nevertheless, severe habitat loss (70%) of endemic species \r such as Posidonia oceanica is projected by 2050 with the potential \r for functional extinction by 2100 under RCP8.5 climate scenario. For \r Cymodosea nodosa, the species with the highest thermal optima \r (Savva et  al. 2018), warming is expected to lead to significant \r reduction of meadows (46% under RCP8.5) in the Mediterranean, \r although potentially compensated in part by future expansion into \r the Atlantic (Chefaoui et al. 2018). "


id: c8c7ccb911b850860580383882a39b4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32647
content:
"In conclusion, substantial evidence supports with high confidence\r that warming and salinisation of wetlands caused by SLR are causing \r shifts in the distribution of plant species inland and poleward, such \r as mangrove encroachment into subtropical salt marshes (high \r confidence) or seagrass meadows contraction at low latitudes \r (high confidence). Plants with low tolerance to flooding and extreme \r temperatures are particularly vulnerable and may be locally extirpated \r (medium confidence). The flooded area of salt marshes can become \r a mudflat or be colonised by more tolerant, invasive species, whose \r expansion is favoured by combined effects of warming, rising CO2\r and nutrient enrichment (medium confidence). The loss of vegetated \r coastal ecosystems causes a reduction in carbon storage with positive \r feedbacks to the climate system (high confidence) (Section 5.4.1.2). \r SLR and warming are expected to continue to reduce the area of \r [...]"


id: d96ffc72e013b48073c895e040618aed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35551
content:
"[...] coastal wetlands, with a projected global loss of 20-90% by the end \r of the century depending on emission scenarios. High risk of total \r local loss is projected under the RCP8.5 emission scenario by 2100 \r (medium confidence), especially if landward migration and sediment \r supply is constrained by human modification of shorelines and river \r flows (medium confidence)."


id: bf43298f108938ece120f70d00007e01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30920
content:
"Sandy beaches represent 31% of the world's ice-free shoreline \r (Luijendijk et  al. 2018). They provide habitat for dune vegetation, \r benthic fauna and sea birds, nesting areas for marine turtles (Defeo \r et al. 2009), and several key ecosystem services (Drius et al. 2019) \r (Section 5.4.1.2). Sandy beach ecosystems are physically dynamic, \r where sediment movement is a key driver of benthic flora and fauna \r zonation (Schlacher and Thompson, 2013; van Puijenbroek et  al. \r 2017). In AR5 WGII (Wong et al. 2014b) and SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg \r et al. 2018), climate impacts on sandy beach ecosystems were not \r assessed individually but together with other coastal systems that \r included beaches, barriers, sand dunes, rocky coasts, aquifers and \r lagoons. Those assessments concluded with high confidence that \r SLR, storminess, wave energy and weathering regimes will continue \r [...]"


id: d614d920dc44eadcdf7ac2e08d1fd035
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34980
content:
"[...] to erode coastal shorelines and affect the soil accretion and land\u0002based ecosystems, with highly site-specific effects (high confidence). \r Infrastructure and geological constraints reduce shoreline movement \r and cause coastal squeeze (high confidence). Assessment in \r Section 4.3.3.3 supports the conclusions in AR5 and SR15 regarding \r the erosion of sandy coastlines. This section specifically assesses \r the combined climate and non-climatic impacts on sandy beach \r biodiversity, ecosystem structure and functioning."


id: 407442056dc724a03ca1894f5d29195d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8530
content:
"to drop to 32% under RCP8.5 scenario, with 93% of the hatchlings \r expected to be female (76% under RCP4.5). A possible microhabitat \r adaptation such as shadowed vegetated areas, however, could allow \r for continued male production throughout the 21st century (Patricio \r et  al. 2019). In addition, a projected global mean SLR of ~1.2 m \r under the upper likely range of RCP8.5 by 2100 implies a  loss of \r 59% and 67% in the present nesting area of the green turtle and \r the loggerhead respectively in the Mediterranean (Varela et  al. \r 2019), and a loss of 43% in the nesting area of green turtles in West \r Africa (Patricio et al. 2019). Moreover, benthic crustaceans of sandy \r beaches, including isopods, crabs and amphipods, generally follow \r the temperature-body size gradient in which body size decreases \r towards warmer lower-latitude regions (Jaramillo et  al. 2017). \r Assuming that the physiological underpinning of the relationship \r [...]"


id: 2a3bfc04abcd2527e2c1286c085d41ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4643
content:
"[...] between body size and temperature can be applied to warming (see \r Section 5.2.2, medium confidence), the body size of sandy beach \r crustaceans is expected to decrease under warming (low evidence, \r medium agreement)."


id: 9fea0078b2da3175b357fad70a5f00ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25342
content:
"Globally, coral reefs and their associated communities are projected \r to change their species composition and biodiversity as a result of \r future interactions of multiple climatic and non-climatic hazards \r (Kleypas, 2019; Kubicek et al. 2019; Rinkevich, 2019) (high evidence, \r very high agreement, very high confidence). Multiple stressors \r act together to increase the risk of population declines or local \r extinction of reef-associated species through impacts of warming \r and ocean acidification on physiology and behaviours (Gunderson \r et al. 2017) (high confidence). Alteration of composition of coral reef\u0002associated biota is exacerbated by changes in habitat conditions \r through increased sedimentation and nutrient concentrations from \r human coastal activities (Fabricius, 2005) (high confidence). Coral \r ecosystems in tropical small islands are also at high risk of being \r affected by extreme events, including storms, with their impacts \r [...]"


id: 57891de86ee0dfdfb8273b7bf56cb5c4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 12666
content:
"[...] exacerbated by SLR (Duvat et al. 2017; Harborne et al. 2017) (high \r confidence). Such risks on coral reef associated communities \r are substantially elevated when the level of these climatic and \r non-climatic hazards are above thresholds that may cause phase \r shifts in reef communities (McCook, 1999; Hughes et  al. 2010; \r Graham et al. 2013; Hughes et al. 2018) (high confidence). A phase \r shift is characterised by an abrupt decrease in coral abundance \r or cover, with concurrent increase in the dominance of non-reef \r building organisms, such as algae and soft corals (Kleypas, 2019). \r Such phase shifts have already been observed in many coral reefs \r worldwide (Wernberg et al. 2016; Kleypas, 2019)."


id: 4b90cf956992f7847bd6d0ca63237b17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10557
content:
"Overall, changes in sandy beach morphology have been observed \r from climate related events, such as storm surges, intensified offshore \r winds, and from coastal degradation caused by humans (high \r confidence), with impacts on beach habitats (e.g., benthic megafauna) \r (medium confidence). The direct influence of contemporary SLR on \r shoreline behaviour is emerging, but attribution of such changes to \r SLR remains difficult (Section 4.3.3.1). Projected changes in mean \r and extreme sea levels (Section 4.2.3) and warming (Section 5.2.1) \r under RCP8.5 are expected to result in high risk of impacts on sandy \r beach ecosystems by the end of the 21st century (medium confidence, \r Figure 5.16), taking account of the slow recovery rate of sandy beach \r vegetation, the direct loss of habitats and the high climatic sensitivity \r of some fauna. Under RCP2.6, the risk of impacts on sandy beaches \r is expected to be only slightly higher than the present day level (low \r [...]"


id: da77d0ff731b1677d055764486e9ffd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35735
content:
"[...] confidence, Figure 5.16). However, pervasive coastal urbanisation \r lowers the buffering capacity and recovery potential of sandy beach \r ecosystems to impacts from SLR and warming and thus is expected to \r limit their resilience to climate change (high confidence)."


id: 1635e6e1bfd3790779fdb16abacb92f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Notwithstanding the conclusion that coral reefs globally are projected \r to greatly decline at 2oC warming relative to pre-industrial level \r (Cacciapaglia and van Woesik, 2018; Dietz et al. 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg \r et  al. 2018), climate impacts can be affected by variations in the \r sensitivity and adaptive capacity across coral species and coral reef \r ecosystems. Laboratory experiments show that some warm water \r corals possess the cellular, physiological or molecular machineries \r that could help them acclimatise or adapt to the effects of global \r change (medium confidence) (DeBiasse and Kelly, 2016; Gibbin et al. \r 2017; Wall et al. 2017; Camp et al. 2018; Donelson et al. 2018; Drake \r et al. 2018; Veilleux and Donelson, 2018; Hughes et al. 2019b). For \r example, there are species or genotypes that show less impacts by \r either ocean acidification or increased temperatures (Cornwall et al. \r 2018; Gintert et  al. 2018). Some corals and their symbionts might \r [...]"


id: c1e18cb7054e68c6c31906efdd1ef56f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31410
content:
"[...] be able to use epigenetic (heritable phenotype changes that do not \r involve alterations in the DNA sequences) mechanisms to reduce \r their sensitivity to temperature changes in their environment and to \r pass such traits to their offspring (Liew et al. 2017; Torda et al. 2017; \r Li et  al. 2018b; Liew et  al. 2018). The variations in sensitivity and "


id: de149a4b64c522952e8a1fa4e315c7cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36335
content:
"More observational and empirical evidence since AR5 and SR15 \r confirms that climate change poses high risk to rocky shore \r ecosystems' biodiversity, structure and functioning through warming, \r acidification, SLR and extreme events (Agostini et al. 2018; Duarte and \r Krause-Jensen, 2018; Ullah et al. 2018; Milazzo et al. 2019). Immobile \r intertidal organisms are especially vulnerable to warming, due to \r the potential for extreme heat exposure during low tide emersion \r and prolonged desiccation events (Hawkins et  al. 2016; Zamir \r et  al. 2018) (high confidence). This effect is expected to lower the \r upper vertical limit of intertidal communities (Hawkins et al. 2016), \r reducing their suitable habitat (Harley, 2011), and accompanied by \r temperature-induced increases in predation by consumers (Sanford, \r 1999). While previous studies have documented a poleward shift in \r species distributions of rocky intertidal and reef algae (Duarte et al. \r [...]"


id: a9bf7e7a5153c1c2403c4e1f3f8c86e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 27087
content:
"[...] 2013; Nicastro et  al. 2013) and faunal species (Barry et  al. 1995; \r Mieszkowska et al. 2006; Lima et al. 2007), local extinctions at the \r equatorial or warm edge of species ranges are increasingly being \r attributed to climate change (Yeruham et al. 2015; Sorte et al. 2017) \r (high confidence). Extreme heat waves are expected to cause mortality \r among rocky shore species (Gazeau et al. 2014; Jurgens et al. 2015) \r and subsequent declines or losses in important species can have \r cascading effects on the whole intertidal community and the services \r it provides (Gatti et al. 2017; Sorte et al. 2017; Sunday et al. 2017). \r Coralline fauna adapted to narrow environmental conditions seem \r especially vulnerable to heat waves, with observed mass mortalities in \r the Adriatic Sea in response to extreme summer temperatures (Kruzic \r et  al. 2016). The loss of thermal refugia associated with continued \r warming could exacerbate the impacts of heat stress on rocky \r [...]"


id: 6ef1d9b8053c855ae177966d89f0a5da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16789
content:
"[...] intertidal communities (Lima et al. 2016). Nevertheless, experimental \r data indicate that some coralline algae that are well adapted to highly \r variable transitional environments can tolerate the warming projected \r for 2100 under RCP8.5; for these species, ocean acidification will \r constitute the main hazard (Nannini et al. 2015). "


id: ea70f4941133f385c8e4cc0c0aeb8bd5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38609
content:
"Coral reefs in deeper or mesophotic waters (found in tropical/\r subtropical regions at 30-150 m depth) may serve as refuges and \r sources for larval supply to those reefs exposed to disturbances \r (e.g.,  bleaching, storms, floods from land, sedimentation and \r tourism impacts) (Bridge et al. 2013; Thomas et al. 2015; Lindfield \r et al. 2016; Smith et al. 2016b; Bongaerts et al. 2017). Reefs exposed \r to local oceanographic characteristics that reduce warming, such \r as upwelling, may similarly provide refuges and larval sources \r (Tkachenko and Soong, 2017). However, recent evidence suggests \r that mesophotic coral reefs are at higher risk than previously \r indicated (Rocha et al. 2018). Monitoring of coral reefs worldwide \r shows that some areas in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (Smith \r et  al. 2017), the Caribbean (Chollett and Mumby, 2013), the Red \r Sea (Fine et al. 2013; Osman et al. 2017), the Persian Gulf (Coles \r [...]"


id: 1586e9cf44c0de872dc6f108d6ea0725
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1000
content:
"[...] and Riegl, 2013) and the Great Barrier Reef, Australia (Hughes \r et al. 2010; Morgan et al. 2017) have recovered more rapidly after \r bleaching than the larger-scale average (medium confidence). There \r are regional differences in reef vulnerability when considering scales \r larger than 100 km or over latitudinal gradients (van Hooidonk et al. \r 2013; Heron et  al. 2016; Langlais et  al. 2017; McClenachan \r et al. 2017) (high confidence)."


id: f29d235a983bcaf940a9805c5d77ba22
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40089
content:
"At the local scale, warming and ocean acidification are expected \r to change energy flows within rocky shores ecosystems (medium \r confidence). Experiments indicate that both climate drivers may boost \r primary productivity in some cases (Goldenberg et al. 2017); however, \r increased metabolic demands and greater consumption by predators \r under warmer temperature increase the strength of top-down control \r (predation mortalities of herbivores) and thus counteracts the effects \r of increased bottom-up productivity (Goldenberg et al. 2017; Kordas \r et al. 2017). Ocean acidification could also increase species energetic \r costs and the grazing rate of herbivores, affecting ecosystem \r responses to increased primary productivity (Ghedini et  al. 2015). \r Although these increasingly complex experiments have highlighted \r the potential for species interactions to mediate the effects of climate \r change, our understanding of the effects on intact, functioning \r [...]"


id: 1b7be522383f01cf8b83daa682c61cc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2021
content:
"[...] ecosystems is limited. Despite predictions for increased production \r and herbivory with warming and acidification, an experimental study \r of a more complex food web revealed an overall reduction in the \r energy flow to higher trophic levels and a shift towards detritus-based \r food webs (Ullah et al. 2018)."


id: be0d606fc09171b43a19fb62df33ff34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30702
content:
"Two global datasets and one dataset covering European coastlines \r (Araujo et al. 2016; Krumhans et al. 2016; Poloczanska et al. 2016) \r identify large local and regional variations in kelp abundance over \r the past half century with 38% of these ecoregions showing a \r decline, 27% an increase and 35% no change (Krumhans et  al. \r 2016). These data reflect the high spatio-temporal variability and \r resilience of kelp forests (Reed et  al. 2016; Wernberg et  al. 2018). \r For example, a  34  year dataset of kelp canopy biomass along the \r California coastline does not yet show a significant response to global \r warming because this ecosystem responds to low frequency marine \r climate oscillations (Bell et al. 2018c). However, between 1950-2010 \r regional warming caused consistent negative responses in \r abundance, phenology, demography and calcification of macroalgae \r for the northeast Atlantic and southeast Indian Ocean (Poloczanska \r [...]"


id: 2b53bad658256a54b73e5a64b23e903
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4873
content:
"[...] et al. 2016). Declines in kelp forest abundance attributed to climate \r change and not related to sea urchin overgrazing (which is a major \r driver of decline and regime shift; Ling et  al. (2014)) have been "


id: b87b9096fce12c54ae0320c79f6fc04c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29669
content:
"In many areas worldwide where the distribution range of kelp has \r contracted due to climatic and non-climatic drivers, it has been \r replaced by a less diverse and less complex turf-dominated ecosystem \r (Filbee-Dexter and Wernberg, 2018) (high confidence). Kelp supports \r other ecosystem components by providing food, substrate for \r spawning and habitat that mediate trophic interactions (O'Brien et al. \r 2018); its degradation therefore reduces species richness, biomass \r production and dependent flora and fauna species (Teagle and Smale, \r 2018; Pessarrodona et al. 2019). In the northeast Atlantic, the warm \r water species Laminaria ochroleuca is expanding poleward into \r regions previously dominated by the cold water species L. hyperborea\r which is retreating at its southern edge. These two kelp species are \r similar in morphology, but the cold water L. hyperborea hosts sessile \r communities of algae and invertebrates 12 times more diverse and \r [...]"


id: b0ac82a5ebbd57da20a7656a451f8af9
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28309
content:
"[...] richer in biomass than the warm water kelp species (Teagle and Smale, \r 2018). Climate-driven shifts in the species composition also affect \r carbon cycling, because warm-temperate kelps produce larger pools \r of organic matter than cold-temperate species, and their detritus is \r degraded faster (Pessarrodona et al. 2019)."


id: e762876a7f1041090893a9042f5cc0ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38008
content:
"This section synthesises the assessment of climate impacts on coastal \r ecosystems' biodiversity, structure and functioning and the levels \r of risk under contrasting future conditions of global warming. As \r described in Section 5.2.5, the format for Figure 5.16 matches that of \r Figure 19.4 of AR5 (Oppenheimer et al. 2015) and Figure 3.20 of SR15 \r (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018), indicating the levels of additional risk \r as colours (white, yellow, red and purple). The elements or burning \r embers for coastal ecosystems (Figure  5.16) indicate how risks \r increase with ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, SLR and \r extreme events with a comparison between present day conditions \r (2000s) and future conditions by the year 2100 under low (RCP2.6) \r and high (RCP8.5) CO2 emission scenarios. The transition between the \r levels of risk for each type of coastal ecosystem is estimated from key \r evidence assessed in Sections 5.3.1 to 5.3.6. The embers are based on \r [...]"


id: 21bb5060e4fe138331bd8a71a4c91df5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] SST and the transition-values may have an error of +-0.3oC depending \r on the consensus of expert judgment. The assessed confidence in \r assigning the levels of risk at present day and future scenarios are \r low, medium, high and very high levels of confidence. A  detailed \r account of the procedures involved in developing the ember for each \r type of coastal ecosystem is given in the supplementary material \r (SM5.3). This includes the description of climate hazards, sensitivity \r of key biotic and abiotic components, natural adaptive capacity, and \r observed impacts and projected risks. The burning embers for seagrass \r meadows, warm water corals and mangrove forests are in agreement \r with the conclusions in SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018). The more \r recent literature assessed here strengthens the overall confidence in \r the assignment of transition and the level of risk for each ecosystem. "


id: 106d344555d917fc925ada7cc70c4c2c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 78
content:
"New empirical eco-physiological studies in combination with field \r surveys support the evidence for climate change causing kelp \r forest degradation and range shifts (Franco et al. 2018b; Wernberg \r et al. 2018). For example, interactive effects of ocean warming and \r acidification cause kelp degradation and disease-like symptoms, \r with detrimental effects on photosynthetic efficiency (Qiu et  al. \r 2019). Enhanced herbivory due to warming and the establishment of \r herbivorous fish species in temperate kelp forest has been observed \r to enhance ecosystem degradation (Verges et  al. 2016). However, \r invader seaweed species driven by warming can create more complex \r trophic interactions, reducing the consumption by herbivorous \r gastropods (Miranda et al. 2019). Increased physical stress by storm \r events also alters the kelps community, affecting the recruitment \r time of kelp species. The resulting dominance of younger stages \r [...]"


id: 7f521e823546d0d2eef0251e1b35411b
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content:
"[...] favors species with a year-round spore production or an opportunistic \r life strategy, reducing the kelp canopy (Pereira et al. 2017)."


id: 50bd0da423d1e61a3fd597b4edc557b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"are not as robust as in coral, seagrass and kelp ecosystems that have \r been extensively studied over the past decades and are highly sensitive \r to extreme climate events. Estuaries and sandy beaches are highly \r dynamic in terms of hydrological and geomorphological processes, \r giving them more natural adaptive capacity to climate impacts. In \r these systems, sediment relocation, soil accretion and landward \r expansion of vegetation may mitigate against flooding and habitat \r loss in the context of SLR and extreme climate-driven erosion. Common \r global responses observed since 1970 include poleward expansion of \r mangrove forests due to warming; transformation of salt marshes into \r mudflats; shifts in species composition in response to flooding and \r salinisation; upstream migration of estuarine biota; and redistribution \r of macrobenthic communities in sandy beaches. Calcified organisms \r in intertidal rocky shores are highly sensitive to ocean warming and \r [...]"


id: 2b3425f202d577c5b8d6932a54a5f08f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4845
content:
"[...] acidification, marine heat waves and heat exposure during low tide, \r with observed mass mortality events and reduced calcification."


id: 8f5aea9c22e273aea7d369c08c758b46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 22434
content:
"Figure 5.16 | Risk scenarios for open ocean (upper panel) and coastal (lower panel) ecosystems based on observed and projected climate impacts. 'Present day' \r corresponds to the 2000s, whereas the different greenhouse emissions scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 correspond to year 2100. \r Multiple climatic hazards are considered, including ocean warming, deoxygenation, acidification, changes in nutrients, particulate organic carbon flux and sea level rise \r (SLR) (see sections 5.2 and 5.3). The projected changes in sea surface temperature (SST) from an ensemble of general circulation models (left panels) indicate the level of \r ocean changes under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (see Cross Chapter Box 1 Table CB1 for the projected global average changes in average air temperature, SST and other selected \r [...]"


id: e5c0b807d8bac2f47f6219bed9fb2180
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37726
content:
"[...] ocean variables). Global average impacts/risks are represented. Regional variations of risks/impacts are described in Section 5.2.5, 5.3.7, SM5.2 and SM5.5. Impact/risk \r levels do not consider human risk reduction strategies such as societal adaptation, or future changes in non-climatic hazards. The grey vertical bars indicate the transition \r between the levels of risks, with their confidence level based on expert judgment. Note: The figure depicts climate change impacts and risks on warm water corals taken \r from SR15, based on global models. Observed impacts on coral reefs ecosystems outlined in Section 5.3.4 and Box 5.5 reveal a more complex situation that may result in \r regional differences in confidence levels. "


id: de5d89cde9d680191368e7bf8b64d725
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36380
content:
"All coastal ecosystems will experience high to very high risk under \r RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. The ecosystems expected \r to be at very high risk under the high emission scenario are coral \r reefs (transition from high to very high risk 0.6oC-1.2oC) (very high \r confidence), seagrasses meadows (2.2oC-3.0oC) (high confidence), \r kelp forests (2.2oC-2.8oC) (high confidence) and rocky shores (2.9oC-\r 3.4oC) (medium confidence). These ecosystems have low to moderate \r adaptive capacity, as they are highly sensitive to ocean warming, \r marine heat waves and acidification. For example, kelp forests at low\u0002latitudes and temperate seagrass meadows with endemic species will \r continue to retreat with more frequent extreme temperatures, and their \r low dispersal ability will elevate the risk of local extinction. Biogenic \r shallow reefs with calcified organisms (e.g., corals, mussels, calcified \r algae) are particularly sensitive to ocean acidification and compound \r [...]"


id: 9b92e2190e322e77e733efed5cacbca9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24623
content:
"[...] effects with rising temperatures, deoxygenation, SLR and increasing \r extreme events, making these ecosystems highly vulnerable (with \r low resilience) to future emission scenarios. Furthermore, almost all \r coral reefs will greatly decline from their current levels, even if global \r warming remains below 2oC (very high confidence). Any coral reefs \r that do survive to the end of the century will not be the same because \r of irreversible changes in habitat structure and functioning, including \r species extinctions and food web disruptions; these changes are \r already taking place (e.g., the Caribbean reefs). The transition to new \r ecosystem states driven by unpredictable pulses of disturbance and \r progressive climate hazards will have negative impacts on ecosystem \r services (Section 5.4)."


id: e4082225c4f0f0fea85c8acac7709d7e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37420
content:
"The ecosystems at moderate to high risk under future emission \r scenarios (Figure 5.16) are mangrove forests (transition from \r moderate to high risk at 2.5oC-2.7oC of global sea surface \r warming), estuaries and sandy beaches (2.3oC-3.0oC) and salt \r marshes (transition from moderate to high risk at 1.8oC-2.7oC and \r from high to very high risk at 3.0oC-3.4oC) (medium confidence). \r Mangrove forests and salt marshes can initially cope with SLR by \r plant biomass accumulation, soil accretion and sediment relocation, \r but the evidence shows they are unlikely to withstand the SLR \r projected under RCP8.5. Moreover, pervasive coastal squeeze and \r human-driven habitat deterioration will reduce the natural capacity \r of these ecosystems to adapt to climate impacts (high confidence). \r Projected warming and SLR by the end of the century will continue to \r expand salinisation and hypoxia in estuaries with high risk of impacts \r [...]"


id: 95fde5c0fece5705637d709d8887174a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23583
content:
"[...] for benthic and pelagic biota. These impacts will be more pronounced \r under RCP8.5 in more vulnerable eutrophic, shallow and microtidal \r estuaries in temperate and high latitudes. Erosion in sandy beach \r ecosystems will continue with global warming, rising sea level and \r more intense and frequent storm surges and marine heat waves. The \r risk of losing habitats for flora and fauna is expected to rise to high \r level under the high emission scenario by the end of the 21st century \r (medium confidence, Figure 5.16). By contrast, the risk of impacts is "


id: adc0cb41abc2a8ed35995daaf0c24f5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27812
content:
"39 large marine ecosystems and the high seas suggest that average \r recruitment to the stocks has declined by around 3% of the historical \r maximum per decade with variations between regions and stocks \r (Britten et al. 2016). The declines (69% of the studied stocks, 31 of \r the 39 assessed large marine ecosystems) are significantly related to \r estimated chlorophyll a concentration and the intensity of fishing, \r with the North Atlantic showing the steepest declines (Britten et al. \r 2016). In addition, recent meta-analysis of population data from \r 235 fish stocks worldwide from 1930 to 2010 suggest that the \r maximum catch potential from these populations decreased by 4.1% \r (95% confidence span 9.0% decline to 0.3% increase) during this \r period with variations between fish stocks and regions (Free et al. \r 2019). Specifically, temperature is a significant factor explaining \r changes in catch potential of 12% of the fish stocks, with East Asian \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] regions having the largest stock declines related to warming. In \r intermediate latitudes across the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, \r catches of tropical tunas, including skipjack and yellowfin tuna, are \r significantly and positively related to increases in SST, although the \r overall catches across latitudinal zones do not show significant \r change (Monllor-Hurtado et al. 2017). Observational evidence from \r spatial and temporal linkages between catches and oceanographic \r variables therefore supports the conclusions from AR5 WGII and \r SR15 that potential fisheries catches have already been impacted by \r the effects of warming and changing primary production on growth, \r reproduction and survival of fish stocks (robust evidence, high \r agreement, high confidence)."


id: 84418b550b74874ae6d20229a3aecfd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20423
content:
"Observed fish catches have been related to NPP and water \r temperature, with the direction and magnitude of the relationship \r varying between regions and fish stocks (Cheung et al. 2008; McOwen \r et  al. 2015; Britten et  al. 2016; Stock et  al. 2017). The maximum \r catch potential of large marine ecosystems generally increases with \r their NPP and energy transfer efficiency, but the relative importance \r of total NPP to fisheries production is lower in nutrient-poor systems \r with microbially-dominated foodwebs (Section 5.2) and empirical \r relationships between NPP and fisheries production over-estimate \r potential catches in polar regions (Stock et  al. 2017) (Chapter 3). \r Here, potential fish catch or maximum catch potential refers to the \r potential of the fish stocks to provide long-term fish catches; it is \r considered a proxy of maximum sustainable yield (MSY). However, \r the actual catches realised by fisheries will depend strongly on \r [...]"


id: 80261d395408d9639c22f41fbbf95606
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19674
content:
"[...] past and present fishing effort and the exploitation status of the \r resources (Cheung et al. 2018a; Barange, 2019). Observed variations \r between regions suggest that changes in temperature and NPP in the \r past (Section 5.2.2, 5.2.3) may have also affected maximum catch \r potential (medium evidence, high agreement, medium confidence)."


id: 82f19a16d333f129596ce1c740542bdc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20166
content:
"Tropical oceans are projected to experience much larger impacts (three \r times or more decrease in catch potential) than the global average, \r particularly the western central Pacific Ocean, eastern central Atlantic \r Ocean and the western Indian Ocean, by the end of the 21st century \r under RCP8.5 (Blanchard et al. 2017). For example, around the exclusive \r economic zones of the Pacific Islands states, more than 50% of exploited \r fishes and invertebrates are projected to become locally extinct in many \r regions by 2100 relative to the recent past under RCP8.5 (Asch et al. \r 2018). These factors cause 74% of the area to experience a projected \r loss in catch potential of more than 50%. Under RCP2.6, the area of \r large projected catch loss is projected to be halved (Asch et al. 2018). \r However, while temperate commercially-important tunas species \r such as albacore, Atlantic and southern bluefin) are projected to shift \r [...]"


id: 38cd7eb905a6da4fb3f2e873e642f27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7197
content:
"[...] poleward and decrease in abundance in the tropics, some tropical \r species such as skipjack tuna are projected to remain abundant, but with \r changes in distribution patterns in low-latitude regions by the mid-21st \r century, with some models projecting subsequent decrease under \r RCP8.5 (Lehodey et  al. 2013; Dueri et  al. 2014; Erauskin-Extramiana \r et al. 2019). Recent evidence therefore supports the conclusion from \r previous assessments (Portner et al. 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018) \r that low-latitude fish catch potential are projected to have a high risk \r of climate impacts, which will be exacerbated by higher greenhouse \r gas emissions (medium evidence, high agreement, high confidence). \r Tropical fish catch potential of some species resilient to the changing \r environment may have lower climate risk in the near-term although \r their risk increases substantially further into the 21st century under \r RCP8.5 (medium confidence). In contrast, the catch potential in the \r [...]"


id: 614383793040f361db1bc09a4538fdc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14413
content:
"[...] Arctic is projected to increase, although with high inter-model variability \r (medium evidence, low agreement, low confidence) (Cheung and Pauly, \r 2016; Blanchard et al. 2017) (Chapter 3). "


id: e0eb4dbe3ffaf4c3cca25724e7394f82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36834
content:
"There are substantial variations in the direction of changes and the \r attribution of climatic drivers between regions and fish stocks, and \r the availability of datasets is biased towards mid-latitude areas and \r epipelagic and coastal ecosystems. As a result, quantitative attribution \r of climate impacts on the productivity of specific fish stocks has low \r confidence. Changes in catch potential for fish stocks and regions \r worldwide that were considered overfished were most sensitive to \r warming (Essington et al. 2015; Britten et al. 2016; Free et al. 2019). \r This suggest that climatic drivers and overfishing have interacted \r synergistically in impacting some fish stocks and their catches (high \r confidence). In addition, analysis of historical catch records since AR5 \r show further warming related changes in species composition, with an \r increased dominance of warm water species in coastal and shelf seas \r [...]"


id: 6f8c8973d236fd3b3b775eb33a99b287
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16889
content:
"[...] since the 1970s (Cheung et al. 2013; Keskin and Pauly, 2014; Tsikliras \r et al. 2014; Maharaj et al. 2018). Many marine ecosystems worldwide \r have shown an increased dominance of warm water species following \r increases in sea water temperature (Section 5.2.3, 5.3), with parallel \r changes in the species composition of fish catches since the 1970s in \r many of the studied shelf seas (high confidence)."


id: 7ed1df273beba35873c84e6f20cc6e4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19465
content:
"Based on CMIP5 ESM projections of changes in temperature, net \r primary production, oxygen, salinity and sea ice extent, two marine \r ecosystem and fisheries models project a decrease in maximum \r catch potential under RCP 2.6 of 3.9-8.5% by 2041-2060 and \r 3.4-6.4% by 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 (based on model \r projections described in Barange et al. 2018). Under RCP 8.5, the \r projected decrease was larger: 8.6-14.2% and 20.5-24.1% by \r the mid- and end- of the 21st century (Figure 5.18). The trends \r agree with the projected changes in total marine animal biomass \r for the 21st century (Blanchard et  al. 2017; Lotze et  al. 2018) \r (Section 5.2.3). A single fisheries model with atmospheric warming \r projected a potential catch loss of 3.4 million tonnes and decreases \r of 6.4% of catch potential of the exploited species per degree \r Celsius atmospheric warming relative to 1951-1960 level (Cheung \r et al. 2016b) (Figure 5.18). Interactions between temperature, net \r [...]"


id: 956c1e6c6892799fba997e5ae1ba24a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23491
content:
"[...] primary production and transfer efficiency of energy across the \r foodweb are projected to amplify these trends, with projected \r decreases greater than 50% in some regions by 2100 under high \r emissions scenarios (Stock et  al. 2017). Thus, there is high model \r agreement that ocean warming and changes in NPP in the 21st \r century will reduce the global maximum catch potential, particularly \r in tropical oceans (high confidence) and alter the distribution and \r composition of exploited species (high confidence). The projected \r risk of these fisheries impacts increases with increasing greenhouse \r gas emissions (high confidence). However, given the uncertainties \r of projected changes in ocean conditions from ESMs (Section 5.2.2), \r and that most global scale fisheries models are largely driven by \r changes in temperature and primary production while other changes \r in ocean biogeochemical changes are not explicitly considered \r [...]"


id: b263eb1d79a31ad5432c84de0daff706
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28623
content:
"[...] (Tittensor et al. 2018), the quantitative magnitude of the projected \r changes in maximum catch potential is considered to have medium\r and low confidence at global and regional scales, respectively. Given \r the significant interactions between catch potential and level of \r fisheries exploitation, the realised catches in the 21st century would \r depend on future scenarios of fishing and fisheries governance \r (Section 5.4.2, 5.5). As a result, projections of realised catches have \r low confidence."


id: 2323535c4179f22f00f608e10c6609c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3378
content:
"Although demersal fisheries in the deep ocean represent a small \r proportion of global fisheries catches, they are economically valuable \r for some countries, and there is increasing commercial interest in \r mesopelagic (deep pelagic ocean) fisheries (St. John et  al. 2016). \r Commercially-exploited fish and shellfish from deep sea ecosystems \r will be exposed to climate risks from physical and chemical changes \r in ocean conditions including warming, decreased oxygen, reduced \r aragonite saturation state, and decreased supply of particulate organic \r matter from the upper ocean (Section 5.2.3, 5.2.4) (FAO, 2019). \r These biogeochemical changes may reduce the growth, reproduction \r and survivorship of deep-ocean fish stocks, which will alter their \r distributions, in similar ways to those in the surface ocean, impacting \r their fish catch potential (FAO, 2019). For example, in the eastern \r Pacific near-bottom oxygen concentration is positively correlated with \r [...]"


id: cf70c70e2d7cf26978e6837898afbf49
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33848
content:
"[...] biomass of commercially harvested species (Keller et al. 2010) and catch \r per unit effort (Banse, 1968; Rosenberg et al. 1983; Keller et al. 2015); \r some commercially harvested species only appear during oxygenation \r events associated with El Nino (Arntz et al. 2006). In the mesopelagic \r zone, expansion of the OMZ results in habitat compression that can \r increase catchability of fish stocks such as tunas (Prince et al. 2010; \r Stramma et al. 2011). Also, as OMZ expands, the potential may exist \r for increased availability and harvest of hypoxia-tolerant species such \r as Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas), thornyheads (Sebastolobus spp.) \r or dover sole (Microstomus pacificus) (Gilly et al. 2013; Gallo and Levin, \r 2016). However, any expansion of the OMZ will interact with other \r climatic hazards such as warming, which then adds to the overall risk of "


id: a9940a3ae61b979c7fda55a2390e441c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27058
content:
"Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are among the world's most productive ocean ecosystems (Kampf and Chapman, 2016). \r They directly support livelihoods in coastal communities and provide many wider benefits to human society (Garcia-Reyes et al. 2015; \r Levin and Le Bris, 2015). The high productivity of EBUS is supported by the upwelling of cold and nutrient-rich waters, itself driven \r by equator-ward alongshore winds that cause the displacement of surface waters offshore and their replacement by deeper waters.\r Total annual fish catches from the four main EBUS (California Current, Humboldt Current, Canary Current and Benguela Current) \r were 16-24 tonnes yr-1 in the 2000s, providing around 17% of the global catch (Pauly and Zeller, 2016). These catches are consumed \r locally, as well as being processed and exported as seafood, fish meals and oils to support aquaculture and livestock production. \r [...]"


id: 8ee6b71423d2b3e12e7911494ca8cf69
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22328
content:
"[...] Upwelling of cold deeper water also increases the condensation of humid air in coastal areas, benefitting coastal vegetation and\r agriculture and suppressing forest fires (Black et al. 2014). The high concentration of marine mammals attracted by the productive \r upwelling ecosystem support lucrative eco-tourism, such as whale watching in the California Current (Kampf and Chapman, 2016). \r The total economic value of the goods and services provided by the Humboldt Current alone is estimated to be 19.45 billion USD per \r year (Gutierrez et al.). Thus, although their area is small compared to other pelagic ecosystems, climate change impacts on EBUS will \r have disproportionately large consequences for human society (very high confidence)."


id: eb4e47e155f3e8ed2a74cf8e3df5de86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38755
content:
"The coupled human-natural EBUS are vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change with large regional variation (Blasiak et al. \r 2017). Observations and modelling analyses suggest that winds have intensified in most EBUS (except the Canary Current) during the \r last 60 years, with several hypotheses proposed to explain the mechanisms (Sydeman et al. 2014; Garcia-Reyes et al. 2015; Rykaczewski \r et al. 2015; Varela et al. 2015). ESMs predict reduction of wind and upwelling intensity in EBUS at low latitudes and enhancement at \r high latitudes for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5, with an overall reduction in either upwelling intensity or extension \r (Belmadani et al. 2014; Rykaczewski et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2017). However, coastal warming and wind intensification may lead to \r variable countervailing responses to upwelling intensification at local scales (Garcia-Reyes et al. 2015; Wang et al. 2015a; Oyarzun and \r [...]"


id: 84ab444055a62b610c9250df6b66174e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20484
content:
"[...] Brierley, 2018; Xiu et al. 2018). Local winds and mesoscale oceanographic features (not resolved in most global Earth System Models \r (ESMs)) are thought to have a greater impact on regional productivity than large-scale wind patterns (Renault et al. 2016; Xiu et al. 2018)."


id: 3084eb90d456f0763459272c18ec9f4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5792
content:
"There is conflicting evidence in sea surface temperature (SST) trends in recent decades, even among the same EBUS, due to varying \r spatio-temporal resolution of SST data and the superimposed effects of interannual to multi-decadal variability (Garcia-Reyes et al. \r 2015). Some EBUS are close to important thresholds in terms of oxygenation and ocean acidification (Gruber et al. 2012; Franco \r et al. 2018a; Levin, 2018). Large-scale coastal and offshore data for the California Current indicate that there have been decadal \r decreases in pH and dissolved oxygen affecting organisms and ecosystems (Alin et al. 2012; Bednarsek et al. 2014; Breitburg et al. \r 2018; Levin, 2018). Model projections for 2100 suggest strong effects of deoxygenation and reduced pH in the Humboldt Current and \r the California Current under RCP8.5 (Gruber et al. 2012; Garcia-Reyes et al. 2015), affecting seafloor habitats and invertebrate fisheries \r [...]"


id: 3c5d533091eb7e8dae4a74cc8fb4f9a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7809
content:
"[...] (Marshall et al. 2017; Hodgson et al. 2018). For instance, the Humboldt Current is projected to experience widespread aragonite\r undersaturation within a few decades (Franco et al. 2018a), with strong impacts on calcified organisms. Such ocean acidification could \r be worsened by synergistic effects of ocean warming and deoxygenation (Lachkar, 2014)."


id: 64a2a75d5faac101f59c11fabfa2d4f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14988
content:
"Overall, EBUS have been changing with intensification of winds that drives the upwelling, leading to changes in water temperature \r and other ocean biogeochemistry (medium confidence). Three out of the four major EBUS have shown upwelling intensification in \r the past 60 years, with strongly increasing trends in ocean acidification and deoxygenation in the two Pacific EBUS in the last few \r decades (high confidence). The expanding oxygen minimum zone in the California EBUS has altered ecosystem structure and and \r fisheries catches (medium confidence). However, the direction and magnitude of observed changes vary among and within EBUS, \r with uncertainties regarding the driving mechanisms behind this variability. Moreover, the high natural variability of EBUS and their \r insufficient representation by global ESMs gives low confidence that these observed changes can be attributed to anthropogenic causes, \r [...]"


id: 44d12efa081b584fe69c747bcd9dd1c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9331
content:
"[...] which are predicted to emerge primarily in the second half of the 21st century (medium confidence) (Brady et al. 2017). Given the high \r sensitivity of the coupled human-natural EBUS to oceanographic changes, the future sustainable delivery of key ecosystem services from \r EBUS is at risk under climate change; those that are most at risk in the 21st century include fisheries (high confidence), aquaculture \r (medium confidence), coastal tourism (low confidence) and climate regulation (low confidence). For vulnerable human communities \r with a strong dependence on EBUS services and low adaptive capacity, such as those along the Canary Current system (Belhabib et al. \r 2016; Blasiak et al. 2017), unmitigated climate change effects on EBUS (complicated by other non-climatic stresses such as social unrest) \r have a high risk of altering their development pathways (high confidence)."


id: 7ee1b238ac99120bb3a3513159de1b31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19480
content:
"Under RCP2.6, CMIP5 ESMs project a reduced net ocean carbon \r uptake by 2080, to around 1.0 GtC yr-1. Under RCP8.5, net ocean \r carbon uptake increases to a net sink of around 5.5 GtC yr-1, but \r with variability between models (Lovenduski et al. 2016). Although \r the open ocean biological pump contributes only part of current \r carbon uptake (Boyd et al. 2019), the downward carbon flux at 1000 \r m is projected to decrease by 9-16% globally under RCP8.5 by 2100. \r A projected decrease in carbon sequestration in the North Atlantic \r by 27-41% has been estimated to represent a loss of 170-3000 \r billion USD in abatement (mitigation) costs and 23-401 billion \r USD in social costs (Barange et al. 2017). Others have highlighted \r the declining value of open ocean carbon sequestration in the \r eastern tropical Pacific (Martin et al. 2016b) and the Mediterranean \r (Melaku Canu et  al. 2015). The open ocean therefore seems very \r [...]"


id: 50c32aa869e0bc79bd4b4407e1712932
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11484
content:
"[...] likely to reduce its carbon uptake by the end of the 21st century, \r with the reduction very likely being greater under RCP8.5 than for \r RCP2.6; however, specific projections only have medium confidence"


id: e7312810872ffaafc69762c7dd41fe78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37974
content:
"Coastal vegetation-rich ecosystems such as mangrove forests, coral \r reefs and salt marshes reduce storm impacts, protect the coastline \r from erosion, and help buffer the impacts of SLR, wave action and \r even moderate-sized tsunamis (Orth et al. 2006; Ferrario et al. 2014; \r Rao et  al. 2015) (Section 5.5.2.2). Their loss or degradation under \r climate change (Sections 5.3) would therefore reduce the benefits \r of these regulatory services to coastal human communities (Perry \r et al. 2018), increasing the risk of damage and mortality from natural \r disasters (Rao et  al. 2015) (high confidence). In some locations \r where climate-induced range expansion of coastal wetlands occurs, \r regulatory services such as storm protection and nutrient storage \r may be enhanced; however, the replacement of an existing ecosystem \r by others (e.g.,  salt marshes replaced by mangroves) may reduce \r habitat availability for fauna requiring specific vegetation structure \r [...]"


id: bdc72b0b5a220dd5bdff084da5acdcf7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30649
content:
"[...] and consequently other types of ecosystem services (Kelleway et al. \r 2017b; Sheng and Zou, 2017)."


id: 5a6f4e8ee5ba3dbd421a6cb47e36b0b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13166
content:
"Coastal blue carbon ecosystems provide climate regulatory services \r through their carbon removal and storage (Section 5.3.3). The current \r rates of loss of blue carbon ecosystems, partly due to climate change \r (Section 5.3) results in release of their stored CO2 to the atmosphere \r (Section 5.5.1.2.2). However, increases in carbon sequestration are \r also possible; for example, temperature-driven displacement of \r salt marsh plants by mangrove trees may increase carbon uptake \r in coastal wetlands (Megonigal et  al. 2016). Different rates of \r SLR may have opposite effects, with potential increases in net \r carbon uptake for slowly rising sea levels (assuming inland habitat \r migration is possible), but net carbon release for more rapid SLR \r (Figure 5.19). Such contrasting feedbacks between scenarios arise \r from the different responses of plant biomass, sediment accretion \r and inundation that control the overall response of vegetated coastal \r [...]"


id: 8add0f2c5a9b3b39f019bd03a141cec5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21602
content:
"[...] ecosystems to rising sea level (Gonneea et al. 2019). Thus, under high \r emission scenarios, SLR and warming are expected to reduce carbon \r sequestration by vegetated coastal ecosystems (medium confidence); \r however, under conditions of slow SLR, there may be net increase in \r carbon uptake by some coastal wetlands (medium confidence)."


id: 6698aa5d1d72df4669014fa1ce025ee8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15308
content:
"Publications since AR5 provide further evidence that coastal habitats \r are at risk from SLR, warming and other climate-related hazards \r (see Section 5.3). All these changes to supporting services have \r implications for other ecosystem services (Costanza et  al. 2014), \r such as altering fish catches and their composition (Pratchett et al. \r 2014; Carrasquilla-Henao and Juanes, 2017; Maharaj et  al. 2018) \r (Section  5.4.1.1) and carbon sequestration (Section 5.4.1.2). In the \r epipelagic ocean, climate change affects the pattern and magnitude \r of global NPP (Section 5.2.2.6) and the export of organic matter; both \r of these processes support ecosystem services in the deep ocean \r (Section  5.2.4) and elsewhere. Projected ocean acidification and \r oxygen loss will also affect deep ocean biodiversity and habitats that \r are linked to provisioning services in the deep ocean (Section 5.2.3.2, \r 5.2.4). Overall, there is high confidence that marine habitat loss and \r [...]"


id: 4b8214625460fce42b9a14f19b34d086
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10542
content:
"[...] degradation have already impacted supporting services from many \r marine ecosystems worldwide. The confidence on the attribution of \r those impacts to climate change depends on the assessment of the \r ocean and coastal ecosystems (Section 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.3). Projected \r climate-driven alterations of marine habitats will increase the future \r risks of impacts on supporting services (high confidence)."


id: 22df5ab18b66c03d0b7cf2bbf6572236
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3340
content:
"Vibrio species naturally occur in warm, nutrient-rich and low salinity \r coastal waters. Since AR5, analysis of the the Continuous Plankton \r Recorder dataset (Section 5.2.3) has shown a significant increase \r in Vibrio abundance in the North Sea over the period 1958-2011 \r related to sea surface warming (Vezzulli et al. 2016). Other time series \r data have confirmed a poleward expansion of Vibrio pathogens in \r mid- to high-latitude regions, ascribed at least partly to climate \r change (Baker-Austin et al. 2013; Baker-Austin et al. 2017). Extreme \r weather events such as flooding and tropical cyclones are also \r linked to increased incidences of Vibrio-related disease, suggested \r to be caused by the increased exposure of human populations to the \r pathogens during these extreme events (Baker-Austin et al. 2017). \r New evidence since AR5 therefore increases support for the linkages \r between warming, extreme weather events and increased risk of \r [...]"


id: be075cfb51eed2ba15fc434b7751bd66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30699
content:
"Extrapolating from the observed relationship between environmental \r conditions and current Vibrio distributions, coastal areas that \r experience future warming, changes in precipitation and increases in \r nutrient inputs can be expected to see an increase in prevalence of \r Vibrio pathogens. These effects have been simulated in a global-scale \r model that relates occurrences of Vibrio with SST, pH, dissolved oxygen \r and chlorophyll a concentration under the SRES B1 scenario (Escobar \r et al. 2015). In the Baltic Sea, a nearly two-fold increase in the area \r suitable for Vibrio is projected between 2015 and 2050 for both RCP4.5 \r and RCP8.5 scenarios (relating to projected SST increase of 4oC-5oC), \r resulting in an elevated risk of Vibrio infections (Semenza et al. 2017). \r Projected conditions of increased coastal flooding from storm surges \r and SLR (Section 5.2.2) will also increase exposure to waterborne \r disease (Ashbolt, 2019), such as Vibrio (medium confidence). \r [...]"


id: e8210f6aa8827902f44882173ae2b219
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38164
content:
"[...] However, uncertainty in the socioeconomic factors affecting the future \r vulnerabilities of human populations render quantitative projections of \r the magnitude of health impacts uncertain (Lloyd et al. 2016). "


id: ed3624c3c40df71bda87b04952f112b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39115
content:
"Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are proliferations of phytoplankton (mostly dinoflagellates, diatoms and cyanobacteria) and \r macroaglae that have negative effects on marine environments and associated biota. Impacts include water discolouration and \r foam accumulation, anoxia, contamination of seafood with toxins, disruption of food webs and massive large-scale mortality of \r marine biota (Hallegraeff, 2010; Quillien et al. 2015; Amaya et al. 2018; Garcia-Mendoza et al. 2018; Alvarez et al. 2019). The IPCC 5th \r Assessment Report (AR5) concluded that harmful algal outbreaks had increased in frequency and intensity, caused partly by warming, \r nutrient fluctuations in upwelling areas, and coastal eutrophication (medium confidence); however, there was limited evidence and \r low confidence for future climate change effects on HABs (AR5 Chapters 5, 6) (Portner et al. 2014; Wong et al. 2014b). Since AR5, \r [...]"


id: 43a9e15f635239501656297ca3ed59e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] HABs have increasingly affected human society, with negative impacts on food provisioning, tourism, the economy and human health \r (Anderson et al. 2015; Berdalet et al. 2017). For example, HABs caused an estimated loss of 42 million USD for the tuna industry \r in Baja California, Mexico (Garcia-Mendoza et al. 2018) and mortality of more than 40,000 tonnes of cultivated salmon in Chile \r (Diaz et al. 2019). This additional observational and experimental evidence has improved detection and attribution of HABs to climate \r change, demonstrating that shifts in biogeography, increased abundance and increased toxicity of HABs in recent years have been partly \r or wholly caused by warming and by other, more direct human drivers."


id: 6321d3687f90e86a3063c0536a0f8c62
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14736
content:
"New studies since AR5 show range expansion of warm water HAB species, such as Gambierdiscus that causes ciguatera fish poisoning \r (Kohli et al. 2014; Bravo et al. 2015; Sparrow et al. 2017); contraction of cold water species (Tester et al. 2010; Rodriguez et al. 2017); the \r detection of novel phycotoxins and toxic species (Akselman et al. 2015; Guinder et al. 2018; Paredes et al. 2019; Tillmann et al. 2019); \r and regional increases in the occurrence and intensity of toxic phytoplankton blooms (McKibben et al. 2017; Diaz et al. 2019) in relation \r to ocean warming. For example, growth of the toxic dinoflagellates Alexandrium and Dinophysis, producers of paralytic shellfish \r poisoning and okadaic acid, respectively, is enhanced by warmer conditions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific (Gobler et al. 2017), \r whilst environmental conditions linked with warm phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO are associated with blooms of toxic \r [...]"


id: b22b074dbc001b8b45bd31c40590e348
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] Pseudo-nitzschia species in the Northern California Current (McKibben et al. 2017), with devastating effects on coastal ecosystems \r (McCabe et al. 2016; Ritzman et al. 2018). Regional variations of trends in HAB occurrences can be explained by spatial differences in \r climate drivers (temperature, water column stratification, ocean acidification, precipitation and extreme weather events), as well as non\u0002climatic drivers, such as eutrophication and pollution (Hallegraeff, 2010; Hallegraeff, 2016; Glibert et al. 2018; Paerl et al. 2018). "


id: 2f8ebf9a0ca7fe00f52652ab1d077789
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"Experimental studies have provided additional evidence for the role of environmental drivers in inducing HABs and their degree \r of impact. These studies include those showing that toxin production can be affected by grazers (Tammilehto et al. 2015; Xu and\r Kiorboe, 2018) and changing nutrient levels (Van de Waal et al. 2013; Brunson et al. 2018). The biosynthesis of domoic acid by some \r Pseudo-nitschia species is induced by combined phosphate limitation and high CO2 conditions (Brunson et al. 2018), with their \r growth and toxicity enhanced by warming in incubation experiments (Zhu et al. 2017). Recent mesocosm experiments using natural \r subtropical planktonic communities found that simulated CO2 emission scenarios (between Representative Concentration Pathway \r (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2100) improved the competitive fitness of the toxic microalgae Vicicitus globosus for CO2 treatments above \r [...]"


id: 8b9110e18762a0766d2b2057456a8963
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] 600 matm, and induced blooms above 800 matm, with severe negative impacts for other components of the planktonic food \r web (Riebesell et al. 2018). Experiments with the toxic dinoflagellate Akashiwo sanguinea (hemolytic activity) have also shown that \r a combination of high CO2 levels, warming and high irradiance stimulate the growth and toxicity of this HAB species (Ou et al. 2017). "


id: 6ad2c8e637ca620ca6fa9c983727d0d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16076
content:
"Climate change-contaminant interactions can alter the bioaccumulation \r and amplify biomagnification of several contaminant classes (Boxall \r et  al. 2009; Alava et  al. 2018). This section assesses two types of \r contaminants that are of concern to environmental and human health \r as examples of other contaminants with similar properties (Alava et al. \r 2017). These two types of contaminants are the toxic and fat-soluble \r persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls \r (PCBs), as well as the neurotoxic and protein-binding organic form of \r mercury, methylmercury (MeHg) (Alava et al. 2017). POPs and MeHg \r are bioaccumulated by marine organisms and biomagnified in food \r webs, reaching exposure concentrations that become harmful and toxic \r to populations of apex predators such as marine mammals (Desforges \r et  al. 2017; Desforges et  al. 2018) (Figure 5.20). Human exposure \r to POPs and MeHg can lead to serious health effects (Ishikawa and \r [...]"


id: 5702bdd74bc308674a79fc0b15b8e052
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"and West Africa where maximum fisheries catch potential is projected \r to decrease under climate change security (Golden et al. 2016; Hilmi \r et  al. 2017) (Section 5.4.1; Figure 5.21) and where land-based \r food production is also at risk (Blanchard et  al. 2017) (medium \r confidence). Populations in these regions are also estimated to have \r the highest proportion of their micronutrient intake relative to the \r total animal sourced food (Golden et  al. 2016) (ASF; Figure  5.21). \r This highlights their strong dependence on seafood as a source of \r nutrition that further elevates their vulnerability to food security \r from climate change impacts on seafood supply (high confidence). \r Modeling of seafood trade networks suggests that Central and \r West African nations are particularly vulnerable to shocks from \r decrease in seafood supply from international imports; thus their \r climate risks of seafood insecurity could be exacerbated by climate \r [...]"


id: 7971f4360e3cd2a6b23e1f9d7d003fb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18566
content:
"[...] impacts on catches and seafood supply elsewhere (Gephart et  al. \r 2016). In addition, experimental studies suggest that warming and \r ocean acidification reduce the nutritional quality of some seafood by \r reducing levels of protein, lipid and omega-3 fatty acids (Tate et al. \r 2017; Ab Lah et al. 2018; Lemasson et al. 2019). "


id: 36ff2374ced7cfd0a05cc15f383606de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6903
content:
"capacity to changing fish availability (Marushka et al. 2019). The shift \r from traditional nutritious wild caught seafood-based diets of coastal \r indigenous communities, towards increased consumption of processed \r energy dense foods high in fat, refined sugar and sodium, due to social \r and economic changes (Kuhnlein and Receveur, 1996; Shannon, 2002; \r Charlton et al. 2016; Batal et al. 2017), has important consequences on \r diet quality and nutritional status (Thaman, 1982; Quinn et al. 2012; \r Luick et al. 2014). This has led to an increased prevalence of obesity, \r diabetes, and other diet-related chronic diseases (Gracey, 2007; Sheikh \r et al. 2011) as well as the related decrease in access to culturally or \r religiously significant food items. The risk of climate change on coastal \r communities through the ocean could therefore be increased by \r non-climatic factors such as economic development, trade, effectiveness \r [...]"


id: 8335bfa676ce544cc8a33c483888f965
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20210
content:
"Indigenous knowledge is passed and appreciated over timeframes \r ranging from several generations to a few centuries (Cross-Chapter \r Box 4 in Chapter 1). The adjustment of the transmission and the \r network of Indigenous knowledge on the ocean and coasts, and \r related perceptions and practice, implies a reworking of these \r knowledge systems where the individuals and the groups are actors \r in a narrative and historical construction (Roue, 2012; Alderson-Day \r et  al. 2015). SLR is already transforming the seascape, such as the \r shape of shores in many low-lying islands in the Pacific, leading to \r modification or disappearance of geomorphological features that \r represent gods and mythological ancestors (Camus, 2017; Kench et al. \r 2018). These changing seascape also affects the mobility of people and \r residence patterns, and consequently, the structure and transmission \r of Indigenous knowledge (Camus, 2017). The fear of SLR and climate \r [...]"


id: e45754e9570c376fad2638d215896c1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 37468
content:
"[...] change encourage security measures and the grouping of local people \r to the safest places, contributing to the erosion of indigenous culture \r and their knowledge about the ocean (Bambridge and Le Meur, 2018), \r and impairment of opportunity for social elevation for some Pacific \r indigenous communities (Borthwick, 2016)."


id: c97e3a69fc1d1f60bfba66b548e9e18e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32772
content:
"The aesthetic appreciation of natural places is one of the \r fundamental ways in which people relate to their environment. \r AR5 noted that climate change may impact marine species with \r aesthetic importance that affect local and indigenous cultures, \r local economies and challenge cultural preservation (Portner et al. \r 2014). Evidence since AR5 confirms that aesthetically appreciated \r aspects of marine ecosystems are important for supporting local \r and international economies (especially through tourism), human \r well-being, and stewardship. For example, Marshall et  al. (2018) \r found that aesthetic values are a critically important cultural value \r for all cultural groups, and are important for maintaining sense of \r place, pride, identity and opportunities for inspiration, spirituality, \r recreation and well-being. However, climate change induced \r degradation and loss of biodiversity and habitats (Section 5.2.3, \r [...]"


id: aea343e967c5b10002433c063a94f725
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27955
content:
"[...] 5.2.4, 5.3) can also negatively impact the ecosystem features that \r are currently appreciated by human communities, such as coral reefs, \r mangroves, charismatic species (such as some marine mammals and \r seabirds) and geomorphological features (e.g., sandy beaches). There \r are also aesthetic and inspirational values of marine biodiversity and \r ecosystems that are important to the psychological and spiritual \r well-being of people, including film, literature, art and recreation \r (Pescaroli and Magni, 2015). Other cultural dimensions that are \r becoming more widely acknowledged as potentially disturbed by \r climate change include the appreciation of scientific, artistic, spiritual, \r and health opportunities, as well as appreciation of biodiversity, \r lifestyle and aesthetics (Marshall et al. 2018). Thus, climate change \r may also affect the way in which marine ecosystems support human \r well-being through cultural dimensions. However, the difficulties in \r [...]"


id: cb700889f6d6e69def3945d42e17766d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33121
content:
"[...] evaluating the importance of aesthetic aspects of marine ecosystems, \r and in detecting and attributing of climate change impacts, result in \r such assessment having low confidence. "


id: 167c7ad0fe53280355e0e92cf774212e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 1172
content:
"Climate change is also projected to shift the biogeography and \r potential catches of fishes and invertebrates (5.2.3.1, 5.3, 5.4.1.1) \r that form an integral part of the culture, economy and diet of many \r indigenous communities, such as those situated along the Pacific \r Coast of North America (Lynn et  al. 2013). Indigenous fishing \r communities that depend on traditional marine resources for food \r and economic security are particularly vulnerable to climate change \r through reduced capacity to conduct traditional harvests because of \r reduced access to, or availability of, resources (Larsen et  al. 2014; \r Weatherdon et  al. 2016). Overall, the transmission of Indigenous \r culture and knowledge is at risk because of SLR affecting sea- and \r land-scapes, the availability and access to culturally important \r marine species, and communities' reliance on the ocean for their \r livelihood and their cultural beliefs (medium confidence). Strong \r [...]"


id: cbbd046b125deecb21f4e5e738a2e23d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33170
content:
"[...] attachment to traditional marine-based livelihoods has also been \r reported for non-indigenous communities in Canada (Davis, 2015), \r the USA (Paolisso et al. 2012), Spain (Ruiz et al. 2012) and Australia \r (Metcalf et al. 2015). Reduction in populations of fish species that \r have supported livelihoods for generations, and deteriorations of \r iconic elements of seascapes are putting the well-being of these \r communities at risk (high confidence)."


id: e341b088e7bbbd3f58488bf8a595dcb3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37279
content:
"Climate change affects human cultures and well-being differently. \r For example, Marshall et  al. (2018) assessed the importance of \r identity, pride, place, aesthetics, biodiversity, lifestyle, scientific value \r and well-being within the Great Barrier Reef region by 8,300 people \r across multiple cultural groups. These groups included indigenous and \r non-indigenous local residents, Australians (non-local), international \r and domestic tourists, tourism operators, and commercial fishers. \r They found that all groups highly rated all (listed) cultural values, \r suggesting that these values are critically associated with iconic \r ecosystems. Climate change impacts upon the Great Barrier Reef, \r through increased temperatures, cyclones and SLR that cumulatively \r degrade the quality of the Reef, are therefore liable to result in cultural \r impacts for all groups. However, survey that assess the emotional \r responses to degradation of the Great Barrier Reef by similar \r [...]"


id: ebc003758d703784ed4f68136ca2a2a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38842
content:
"[...] stakeholder groups reported different levels of impacts among these \r groups (Marshall et  al. 2019). Therefore, many ocean and coastal \r dependent communities value marine ecosystems highly and climate "


id: a048397ef8f6feeee02f49ce24d4114c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25409
content:
"Climate change may alter the environment too rapidly for cultural \r adaptation to keep pace. This is because the culture that forms \r around a natural environment can be so integral to people's lives \r that disassociation from that environment can induce a sense of \r disorientation and disempowerment (Fisher and Brown, 2015). \r The adaptive capacity of people to moderate or influence cultural \r impacts, and thereby reduce vulnerability to such impacts, is also \r culturally determined (Cinner et  al. 2018). For example, when \r a resource user such as a fisher, farmer, or forester is suddenly faced \r with the prospect that their resource-based occupation is no longer \r viable, they lose not only a means of earning an income but also an \r important part of their identity (Marshall et al. 2012; Tidball, 2012). \r Loss of identity can, in turn, have severe economic, psychological and \r cultural impacts (Turner et al. 2008). Climate change can quickly alter \r [...]"


id: 7d2f55b1efe9c683e1c1c2b09ca30b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 19202
content:
"[...] the quality of, or access to, a natural resource through degradation \r or coastal inundation, so that livelihoods and lifestyles are no longer \r able to be supported by that resource. When people are displaced \r from places that they value, there is strong evidence that their \r cultures are diminished, and in many cases endangered. There are no \r effective substitutions for, or adequate compensation for, lost sites \r of significance (Adger et al. 2012). As sensitive marine ecosystems \r such as coral reefs and kelp forest are impacted by climate change at \r rapid rate (Section 5.3), these can lead to the loss of part of people's \r cultural identity and values beyond the rate at which identify and \r values can be adjusted or substituted (medium confidence)."


id: eb20b8387f23cd71c989b96bd6e22ea7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38721
content:
"Global gross revenues from marine fisheries were around 150 billion \r in 2010 USD (Swartz et al. 2013; Tai et al. 2017). Capture fisheries \r provide full-time and part-time jobs for an estimated 260 +- 6 million \r people in the 2000s period, of whom 22 +- 0.45 million are small-scale \r fishers (Teh and Sumaila, 2013). Small-scale fisheries are important \r for the livelihood and viability of coastal communities worldwide \r (Chuenpagdee, 2011). AR5 concluded with low confidence that \r climate change will lead to a global decrease in revenue with regional \r differences that are driven by spatial variations of climate impacts on \r and the flexibility and capacities of food production systems (Portner \r et al. 2014). AR5 also highlighted the high vulnerability of mollusc \r aquaculture to ocean acidification. For example, the oyster industry \r in the Pacific has lost nearly 110 million USD in annual revenue due \r to ocean acidification (Ekstrom et al. 2015). This section examines \r [...]"


id: 32084317209d8377d187d1c81a510d1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6061
content:
"[...] the rapidly growing literature assessing the risks of climate change \r on fisheries and aquaculture sectors, and the potential interaction \r between climatic and non-climatic drivers on the economics of \r fisheries. However, new evidence on observed economic impacts \r of climate change on fisheries since AR5 is limited. "


id: bd7fc1c43093e7516b51bda43aa2b281
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30599
content:
"Redistribution of marine species in response to direct and indirect \r effects of climate change may also disrupt existing marine resource \r sharing and associated governance (Miller and Russ, 2014; Pinsky \r et al. 2018). These effects have contributed to disputes in international \r fisheries management for North Atlantic mackerel (Spijkers and \r Boonstra, 2017) and Pacific salmon (Miller and Russ, 2014). These \r disagreements have stressed diplomatic relations in some cases \r (Pinsky et  al. 2018). Decreases and fluctuations in fish stock \r abundance and fish catches have also contributed to past disputes \r (Belhabib et al. 2016; Pomeroy et al. 2016; Blasiak et al. 2017). Under \r climate change, shifts in abundance and distribution of fish stocks \r are projected to intensify in the 21st century (Sections 5.2.3, 5.3, \r 5.4.1.1). Stocks may locally increase and decrease elsewhere. New \r or increased fishing opportunities may be created when exploited \r [...]"


id: c5583b8bfaecddc71ac67176d16513e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32028
content:
"[...] fish stocks shift their distribution into a country's waters where their \r abundance was previously too low to support viable fisheries (Pinsky \r et al. 2018). The number of new transboundary stocks occurring in \r exclusive economic zones worldwide was projected to be around \r 46 and 60 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2060 relative \r to 1950-2014 (Pinsky et al. 2018). However, such alteration of the \r sharing of resources between countries would challenge existing \r international fisheries governance regimes and, without sufficient \r adaptation responses, increase the potential for disputes in resource \r allocation and management (Belhabib et  al. 2018; Pinsky et  al. \r 2018). Overall, projected climate change impacts on fisheries in the "


id: 98624f2d28a0f484f761921db80b477c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24019
content:
"Since AR5, projections on climate change impacts on the economics \r of marine fisheries have incorporated a broader range of social\u0002economic considerations. Driven by shifts in species distributions and \r maximum catch potential of fish stocks (Section 5.4.1), if the ex-vessel \r price of catches remains the same, marine fisheries maximum \r revenue potential are projected to be negatively impacted in 89% of \r the world's fishing countries under the RCP8.5 scenario by the 2050s \r relative to the current status, with projected global decreases of \r 10.4 +- 4.2% and 7.1 +- 3.5% under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively, \r by 2050 relative to 2000 (Lam et  al. 2016). While the projected \r changes in revenues are sensitive to price scenarios (Lam et al. 2016), \r future maximum revenue potential is reduced under high emission \r scenarios (Sumaila et  al. 2019). For example, when the elasticity \r of seafood price in relation to their supply was modelled explicitly, \r [...]"


id: 44c4564d577d247aa69ac884133c02ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
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vector_id: 9323
content:
"[...] fisheries maximum revenue potential under a 1.5oC atmospheric \r warming scenario was projected to be higher than for 3.5oC warming \r by 7.4% (13.1 billion USD) +- 2.3%, across projections from three \r CMIP5 models (Sumaila et al. 2019). Accounting for the subsequent \r impacts on the dependent communities and relative to the 1.5oC \r warming scenario, that study also projected a decrease in seafood \r workers' incomes of 7.8% (3.7 billion USD) +- 2.3% and an increase \r in households' seafood expenditure by the global population of 3.2% \r (6.3 billion USD) +- 3.9% annually under a 3.5oC warming scenario \r (Sumaila et al. 2019). "


id: ba4e3a70b92d8dd2f3e1fbfadd161544
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29997
content:
"Fisheries management strategies and fishing effort affect the \r realised catch and economic benefits of fishing (Barange, 2019). \r Modelling analysis of fish stocks with available data worldwide \r showed that for RCP6.0, adaptation of fisheries by accommodating \r shifts in species distribution and abundance, as well as rebuilding \r existing overexploited or depleted fish stocks, is projected to lead \r to substantially higher global profits (154%), harvest (34%), and \r biomass (60%) in the future, relative to a no adaptation scenario. \r However, the total profit, harvest and biomass are negatively affected \r even with the full adaptation scenario under RCP8.5 (Gaines et al. \r 2018). Overall, climate change impacts on the abundance, distribution \r and potential catches of fish stocks (see Section 5.3.1) are expected \r to reduce the maximum potential revenues of global fisheries (high \r agreement, medium evidence, medium confidence). These impacts on \r [...]"


id: 7e71a240be82e79bde138a1581f7ac34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19406
content:
"[...] fisheries will increase the risk of impacts on the income and livelihoods \r of people working in these economic sectors by 2050 under high \r greenhouse gas emission scenarios relative to low emission scenario \r (high confidence). Rebuilding overexploited or depleted fisheries can \r help improve economic efficiency and reduce climate risk, provided \r that emissions are greatly reduced (medium confidence)."


id: ea646d90ff7ea460c087f1fb1c279e8b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38598
content:
"Tourism is one of the largest sectors in the global economy. Between \r 1995-1998 and 2011-2014, the average total contribution of \r tourism to global GDP increased from 69 billion USD (6.8%) to \r 166  billion USD (8.5%) respectively, and generated more than \r 21 million jobs between 2011-2014 (UNCTAD, 2018). Coastal \r tourism and other marine-related recreational activities contributes \r substantially to the tourism sector (Cisneros-Montemayor et  al. \r 2013; O'Malley et al. 2013; Spalding et al. 2017; Giorgio et al. 2018; \r UNWTO, 2018). For example, it is estimated that around 121 million \r people a year participated in marine-based recreational activities, \r generating 47 billion in 2003 USD in expenditures and supporting \r one million jobs (Cisneros-Montemayor and Sumaila, 2010). Tourism \r is one of the main industries that provides opportunities for social \r and economic development (Jiang and DeLacy, 2014), and marine \r [...]"


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"[...] tourism is particularly important for many coastal developing \r countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). AR5 identified \r the tourism sector in the Caribbean region as particularly vulnerable \r to climate change effects, due to hurricanes, whilst SR15 concluded \r that warming will directly affect climate-dependent tourism markets \r on a worldwide basis (medium confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. \r 2018). This assessment provides updates since AR5 and SR15. "


id: 761f686f1ea36b3764a2ed9637da6c02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18013
content:
"The economic implications of climate change on fisheries vary \r between regions and countries because of the differences in exposure \r to revenue changes and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the \r fishing communities to these changes (Hilmi et  al. 2015). Regions \r where the maximum potential revenue is projected to decrease \r coincide with areas where indicators such as human development \r index suggest high economic vulnerability to climate change \r (Barbier, 2015; Lam et al. 2016). Many coastal communities in these \r regions rely heavily on fish and fisheries as a major source of animal \r proteins, nutritional needs, income and job opportunities (FAO, \r 2019). Negative impacts on the catch and total fisheries revenues \r for these countries are expected to have greater implications for \r jobs, economies, food and nutritional security than the impacts on \r regions with high Human Development Index (Allison et  al. 2009; \r [...]"


id: 106bb1403ebb451bd16bd2503651d257
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 77
content:
"[...] Srinivasan et al. 2010; Golden et al. 2016; Blasiak et al. 2017). Climate \r change impacts to coral reefs and other fish habitats, as well as to \r targeted fish and invertebrate species themselves are expected to \r reduce harvests from small-scale, coastal fisheries by up to 20% by \r 2050, and by up to 50% by 2100, under RCP8.5 (Bell et al. 2018a). \r Therefore, climate risk to communities that are strongly dependent \r on fisheries associated with ecosystems that are particularly sensitive \r to climate change such as coral reefs will have be particularly high \r (Cinner et al. 2016) (high confidence). "


id: 64f53198480ee329198a180d16b153ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"Empirical modelling of future risks to tourism is based on projected \r climate impacts (Section 5.3) for relevant coastal ecosystems, including \r degradation or loss of beach and coral reef assets (Weatherdon et al. \r 2016) (Section 4.3.3.6.2). These projections are developed from the \r relationship between the economic benefits generated from coral \r reef related tourism with observed characteristics of coral reefs, the \r characteristics of tourism activities. Based on scenarios of projected \r future warming and decreases in coral reef coverage, a global loss \r of tourism and recreation value in the near-future (2031-2050) of \r 2.57-2.95 billion yr-1 in 2000 USD is projected under RCP2.6, and \r of 3.88-5.80 billion yr-1 in 2000 USD under RCP8.5 (Chen et  al. \r 2015). Opinion surveys in four countries suggest that if severe coral \r bleaching persists in the Great Barrier Reef, tourism in adjacent areas \r could greatly decline, from 2.8 million to around 1.7 million visitors \r [...]"


id: 97d609f0d7636b1816032497e7c14e80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] per year, equivalent to more than 1 billion AUS (~0.69 billion USD \r using exchange rate in 2019), that is, in tourism expenditure and with \r potential loss of around 10,000 jobs (Swann and Campbell, 2016). "


id: d96e7879e5d71eaef6d1237a70988e7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"The integrity of ecosystems and their services can affect the value \r of human assets, particularly coastal properties and infrastructure \r (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018). Climate change is expected to have \r negative impacts on coastal properties and their value through \r the loss and damage caused by SLR, increased storm intensity \r (hurricanes and cyclones), heat waves, floods, droughts and other \r extreme events, particularly in tropical SIDS (Chapter 4). Natural \r disasters already cost Pacific Island Countries and Territories between \r 0.5-6.6% of GDP yr-1 (World Bank, 2017), with localised damages \r and losses from individual storms far exceeding these estimates \r (e.g., 64% of Vanuatu's GDP for Cyclone Pam in 2015). The impacts \r of natural disasters on Jamaica's coastal transport infrastructure \r are currently estimated to be a significant proportion of their GDP, \r and such costs are projected to increase substantially in the next \r [...]"


id: 798d76b344f5c2d64f2e0696f0d67922
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] few decades under climate change (UNCTAD, 2017; Monioudi et al. \r 2018). In 2015, tropical storm Erika devastated Dominica causing \r 483 million USD in damages and losses (mostly related to transport, \r housing and agriculture), equivalent to 90% of Dominica's GDP \r (World Bank, 2017). For the USA, Ackerman and Stanton (2007) \r forecast that annual real estate losses due to climate change could \r increase from 0.17% of GDP in 2025 to 0.36% in 2100, with Atlantic \r and Gulf Coast states being the most vulnerable. Other North "


id: 134a94b0260fad0dc1be23552fcc2bc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 606
content:
"Similarly, global warming and changing weather patterns may have \r a substantial impact on global trade and transport pathways (Koetse \r and Rietveld, 2009); for example, the reduction in sea ice in the Arctic \r Ocean during summer opens up the possibility for sea transport on the \r Northwest or Northeast Passage for several months per year (Ng et al. \r 2018) (Section 3.5.3.2). Both routes may provide opportunities for \r more efficient transport between North America, Europe, Russia \r and China for fleets with established Arctic equipment, and may \r open up access to known natural resources which have so far been \r covered by ice (Guy and Lasserre, 2016). However, whether the Arctic \r shipping routes will be a realistic alternative depends not only on \r regulatory frameworks and economic aspects (such as infrastructure \r and reliability of the routes) but also on societal trends and values, \r demographics and tourism demand (Prowse et al. 2009; Wassmann \r [...]"


id: ec268b02a8b4481e7ff5ed7a062ced2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38920
content:
"[...] et al. 2010; Pelletier and Guy, 2012; George, 2013; Hodgson et al. \r 2016; Pizzolato et al. 2016; Dawson, 2017) (Section 3.2.4.2, 3.4.3.3). \r Simultaneously, shipping routes through the Arctic pose additional \r risk from human impact such as pollution, introduction of invasive \r species and collision with marine mammals, and emission of short\u0002lived climate forcers that can amplify warming in the region and \r accelerate localised warming (Wan et al. 2016) (Section 3.5.3.2). "


id: 714087ab0d882cd43ef85fb1e6b09158
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17184
content:
"women disproportionately engage in rice crop cultivation in coastal \r flood plain (Linares, 2009), and are thus exposed to the risks on their \r livelihood from rising sea levels and resulting salinisation (Dennis \r et al. 1995). Flooding in Bangladesh has increased the vulnerability \r of women to harassment and abuse as the flooding upends normal \r life and increases crime rates (Azad et  al. 2013). As such, climate \r change may negatively affect our ability to achieve \"gender equality\" \r (SDG 5) (Salehyan, 2008). Impacts on living conditions as well as \r changing recreational, aesthetic, and spiritual experiences also affect \r our ability to achieve 'sustainable cities and communities' (SDG 11) \r (Section 5.4.2.2.1). The consequences of climate change in the ocean \r to achieving the remaining SDGs are less clear. However, the SDGs \r are interlinked, and achieving SDG 14, and especially the targets of \r increasing economic benefits to SIDS and Least Developed Countries, \r [...]"


id: 2a42f17389dbe871332439ec10adfd71
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4652
content:
"[...] as well as eliminating illegal fishing and overfishing, will benefits \r all other SDGs (Singh et  al. 2017). The interlinkages among SDGS \r mean climate change impact on the ocean will affect all other SDGs \r beside SDG14 in various ways, some possible direct and many indirect \r (low confidence). "


id: 96e6f284db37a6c99cf4771695ff776d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23742
content:
"In the open ocean, the biological carbon pump is driven by the \r combination of photosynthesis by phytoplankton and downward \r transfer of particulate carbon by a variety of processes (Henson et al. \r 2010; DeVries et al. 2017); it results in large-scale transfer of around \r 10 GtC yr-1 carbon from near-surface waters to the ocean interior \r (Boyd et al. 2019). Most of this carbon is respired in the mesopelagic \r and contributes to the 37,000 GtC inventory of DIC, with around \r ~0.1 GtC yr-1 eventually being permanently removed in deep \r sea sediments (Cartapanis et  al. 2018). In addition, the microbial \r carbon pump (Jiao et  al. 2010) produces refractory dissolved \r organic molecules throughout the water column at a rate of around \r 0.4 GtC yr-1 (Jiao et al. 2014b), which due to their residence time of \r hundreds to thousands of years maintain the 700 GtC inventory of \r dissolved organic carbon in the ocean (Jiao et al. 2010; Jiao et al. \r [...]"


id: ff774c10a3235950322cd39787b1143d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42352
content:
"[...] 2014a; Legendre et al. 2015; Jiao et al. 2018a). The natural removal of \r carbon by the various carbon pumps is closely balanced by upwelling \r and outgassing, with the ocean a moderate source of CO2 under \r pre-industrial conditions (Ciais et al. 2013). The mitigation potential \r of managing natural processes in the open ocean is only briefly \r assessed here (Section 5.5.1.3)."


id: d35bd7d5a136bcf33c3916f5ddef510a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34527
content:
"There is political and scientific agreement on the need for a wide range \r of mitigation actions to avoid dangerous climate change (UNEP, 2017; \r IPCC, 2018). Opportunities to reduce emissions by the greater use of \r ocean renewable energy are identified in Section 5.4.2.3.2. Here, in \r accordance with the approved scoping of this report, the assessment \r of mitigation options is limited to the management of natural ocean \r processes, that is, requiring policy intervention, with a focus on 'blue \r carbon'. Natural processes per se, although important to the climate \r system and the global carbon cycle, are not a mitigation response. Two \r management approaches are possible: first, actions to maintain the \r integrity of natural carbon stores, thereby decreasing their potential \r release of greenhouse gases, whether caused by human or climate\u0002drivers; and second, through actions that enhance the longterm \r (century-scale) removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere by \r [...]"


id: b957ec8db58f3102f166e9f7376fec14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29821
content:
"These three vegetated coastal habitats are characterised by high, yet \r variable, organic carbon storage in their soils and sediments on a per \r unit area basis (high confidence). In the humid tropics, mangrove \r below-ground organic carbon is typically 500-1000 tC ha-1 (Donato \r et al. 2011; Alongi and Mukhopadhyay, 2015; Howard et al. 2017), \r although only ~50 tC ha-1 in arid regions (Almahasheer et  al. \r 2017). Australian salt marshes show particularly wide variation in \r organic carbon storage, ranging from 15-1000 tC ha-1 (top  1  m) \r with mean of 165 tC ha-1 (Kelleway et al. 2016; Macreadie et al. \r 2017b). For seagrass meadows, storage values are typically \r 400-1600 tC ha-1 but can exceed 2000 tC ha-1 (Serrano et al. 2014). \r These accumulations have occurred over decadal to millennial time \r scales (McKee et al. 2007; Lo Iacono et al. 2008). Such blue carbon \r stock values are similar to freshwater wetlands and peat, but higher \r [...]"


id: 8e011bc9f6bf43c210f8ce7aa9527897
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22174
content:
"[...] than for most forest soils (Laffoley and Grimsditch, 2009; Pan et al. \r 2011) (high confidence). "


id: 360e3f745fe4cf9b1f6fae18c3d37368
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6760
content:
"When vegetated coastal ecosystems are disturbed, a proportion of \r their stored carbon is released back to the atmosphere, along with \r other greenhouse gases (Marba and Duarte, 2009; Duarte et al. 2010; \r Pendleton et al. 2012; Lovelock et al. 2017). Globally, around 25-50% \r of vegetated coastal habitats have already been lost or degraded \r due to coastal agricultural developments, urbanisation and other \r human disturbance during the past 100 years (McLeod et al. 2011). \r The highest historical losses (60-90%) have occurred in Europe and \r China (Jickells et al. 2015; Gu et al. 2018; Li et al. 2018a). Current \r losses are estimated at 0.2-3.0%  yr-1, depending on vegetation \r type and location (FAO et al. 2014; Alongi and Mukhopadhyay, 2015; \r Atwood et al. 2017) (medium confidence). Associated global carbon \r emissions are estimated at 0.04-0.28  GtC  yr-1 (Pendleton et  al. \r 2012); 0.06-0.61 GtC yr-1 (Howard et al. 2017); 0.10-1.46 GtC yr-1\r [...]"


id: 5090ae0a33c3f7f855ea69f80ef82735
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11445
content:
"[...] (Lovelock et al. 2017); and 0.007 GtC yr-1 (mangroves only) (Taillardat \r et al. 2018). This range of values reflects uncertainties regarding the \r global rate of habitat loss, and the proportion of carbon remineralised \r to CO2."


id: c20a61fc0279463df3a475fae4ebd01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31437
content:
"At the global scale, synthesis studies have estimated the potential \r additional sequestration achieved by cost effective coastal blue carbon \r restoration as ~0.05 GtC yr-1 (Griscom et al. 2017) and 0.04 GtC yr-1\r (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2019), \r assuming that a relatively high proportion of vegetated ecosystems \r can be re-instated to their 1980-1990 extents. These values compare to \r current net anthropogenic emissions from all sources of 10.0 GtC yr-1\r (Le Quere et al. 2018), and are consistent with the 'very low' scores by \r (Gattuso et al. 2018) for the climate mitigation benefits of conserving \r and restoring coastal vegetation (Figure 5.23). Coastal ecosystem \r restoration could theoretically achieve higher sequestration, around \r ~0.2 GtC yr-1 (Griscom et  al. 2017), but would be challenging, \r because of the semi-permanent and on-going nature of most coastal \r land-use change, such as human settlement, conversion to agriculture \r [...]"


id: e62af37d615aa375924d285c15826b5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37795
content:
"[...] and aquaculture, shoreline hardening and port development (Gittman \r et al. 2015; Li et al. 2018a). "


id: 8b415da6ce69e954574cb0b2620254ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21662
content:
"Quantification of the climatic benefits of such actions is, however, \r not straightforward. Measurements of carbon burial rates show high \r site-specific variability, being strongly affected by a wide range of \r environmental factors for mangroves (Adame et al. 2017; Schile et al. \r 2017), seagrasses (Lavery et  al. 2013) and salt marshes (Kelleway \r et al. 2017b). The reliable determination of sediment accumulation \r rates is a key consideration, with associated uncertainties not fully \r reflected in the McLeod et  al. (2011) estimates given above. In \r particular, geochemical-based studies have indicated that seagrass \r carbon burial may have been greatly overestimated (Johannessen \r and Macdonald, 2016). These issues are contentious (Johannessen \r and Macdonald, 2018a; Johannessen and Macdonald, 2018b; \r Macreadie et al. 2018; Oreska et al. 2018); their scientific resolution \r is highly desirable. Additional complexities relating to the mitigation \r [...]"


id: 72cca7c4f114009267e066a875b12bbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17441
content:
"analysis of the relationship between organic carbon and nitrate in \r various natural environments (Taylor and Townsend, 2010) as well as \r by experimental results in estuarine and offshore waters (Yuan et al. \r 2010; Jiao et al. 2011; Jiao et al. 2014b). Delivery of nutrients from \r agricultural fertilisers and sewage discharge to coastal waters may \r currently promote the microbial breakdown of river-derived terrestrial \r dissolved organic carbon, reducing carbon storage (Liu  et  al. 2014). \r Thus reducing nutrient inputs in the future may expand carbon storage \r by favouring the microbial carbon pump, in addition to the multiple \r co-benefits of reduced nutrient loads related to HABs, oxygenation \r and ocean acidification (Miranda et al. 2013; Jiao et al. 2018a; Zhang \r et  al. 2018). Although there is some evidence for the impact of \r dissolved organic carbon variations on global scale climate (Rothman \r et al. 2003) the benefits of this approach have yet to be determined \r [...]"


id: 52548f13e10e49cd51ad1d61570da874
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11760
content:
"[...] quantitatively and uncertainties remain regarding the longevity of \r removal and associated carbon accounting (measurement, reporting \r and verification). Until such issues are better resolved, there is low \r confidence that stimulation of refractory dissolved organic carbon \r production could provide an operational long-term mitigation measure."


id: 351cf1bcea94841eba42d030e93884ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6587
content:
"impacts reported in the adaptation literature are consistent with \r those reported in Sections 5.2 and 5.3. Physical impacts include the \r disruption of physical coastal processes, like sediment dynamics, \r leading to, for example, erosion, flooding and coastal infrastructure \r damage (see Tables 5.7 and 5.8). Ecological impacts include the loss \r of ecosystems and biodiversity (Sections 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.3), which \r affected provision of ecosystem services, like coastal protection or \r food provision. The most commonly reported non-climate human \r drivers are growing human coastal populations (Elliff and Silva, 2017; \r van Oppen et al. 2017a; Gattuso et al. 2018) with poorly planned or \r managed urban development (Barbier, 2015; Wigand et al. 2017), land \r use change (Robins et al. 2016), loss of ecosystems (Runting et al. \r 2017), socioeconomic vulnerability (Broto et al. 2015; Bennett et al. \r 2016) of many coastal communities, ineffective governance and \r [...]"


id: 27f0024be98fa7cbc9a31d4060915199
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4220
content:
"Inspired by silviculture (forestation) approaches to terrestrial \r ecosystem restoration, studies (Rinkevich, 1995; Rinkevich, 2005; \r Rinkevich, 2006; Rinkevich, 2008; Bongiorni et  al. 2011) have \r proposed a two step restoration strategy for warm water coral reefs \r termed gardening of denuded coral reefs. In the first step, a large \r pool of coral colonies (derived from coral nubbins and fragments, \r and from sexually derived spat) are farmed in underwater nurseries, \r preferably on mid-water floating devices installed in sheltered \r zones, in which coral material can be cultured for up to several \r years. In the second step, nursery-grown coral colonies, together \r with recruited associated biota, are transplanted to degraded reef \r sites (Shafir and Rinkevich, 2008; Mbije et al. 2010; Shaish et al. \r 2010b; Shaish et  al. 2010a; Bongiorni et  al. 2011; Horoszowski\u0002Fridman et al. 2011; Linden and Rinkevich, 2011; Mbije et al. 2013; \r [...]"


id: 40b293b55260e543d685a7c0d79fbb9d
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8565
content:
"[...] Cruz et al. 2014; Chavanich et al. 2015; Horoszowski-Fridman et al. \r 2015; Lirman and Schopmeyer, 2016; Montoya Maya et al. 2016; Ng \r et al. 2016; Lohr and Patterson, 2017; Rachmilovitz and Rinkevich, \r 2017). Active restoration of coral reefs, while still in its infancy \r and facing a variety of challenges (Rinkevich, 2015b; Hein et  al. \r 2017), has been suggested to potentially improve the ecological \r status of degraded coral reefs and the socioeconomic benefits that \r the reefs provide (Rinkevich, 2014; Rinkevich, 2015b; Linden and \r Rinkevich, 2017). "


id: a4251fb14297e1fe656c4e1aa84a71d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26073
content:
"Ecological engineering approaches may promote coral reef \r adaptation (Rinkevich, 2014; Forsman et al. 2015; Coelho et al. 2017; \r Horoszowski-Fridman and Rinkevich, 2017; Linden and Rinkevich, \r 2017; Rachmilovitz and Rinkevich, 2017). They also include: \r augmenting functional diversity, including that of the microbiome \r (Casey et  al. 2015; Horoszowski-Fridman and Rinkevich, 2017; \r Shaver and Silliman, 2017); transplantating whole habitats \r (Shaish et  al. 2010b; Gomez et  al. 2014); and enhancing genetic \r diversity (Iwao et al. 2014; Drury et al. 2016; Horoszowski-Fridman \r and Rinkevich, 2017). Active restoration can contribute to reef \r rehabilitation in all major reef regions (Rinkevich, 2014; Rinkevich, \r 2015b). However, there is limited evidence on how resistant \r these manipulated corals are to global change drivers (Shaish \r et al. 2010b; Shaish et al. 2010a) or how the nursery time affects \r [...]"


id: fc88e34b8b937691db2af43cb242986e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41793
content:
"[...] biological traits like reproduction in coral transplants (Horoszowski\u0002Fridman et  al. 2011). Coral epigenetics may also be used as an \r adaptive management tool for reef rehabilitation (low confidence), \r as suggested by studies on coral adaptation (Brown et  al. 2002; \r Horoszowski-Fridman et al. 2011; Palumbi et al. 2014; Putnam and \r Gates, 2015; Putnam et al. 2016). "


id: 200c805048634d85b6893d7cba096f33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2854
content:
"Anthropogenic global change is impacting all warm water corals and the reef structures (Section 5.2.2.3.3; IPCC 5th Assessment \r Report  (AR5)). These impacts are rapidly increasing in scale and intensity, exposing coral reefs to enhanced degradation rates and \r diminishing capacities to maintain ecological resilience, to absorb disturbances, and to adapt to the changes (Box 5.1) (Graham et al. \r 2014; Rinkevich, 2015a; Harborne et al. 2017). With the growing awareness that traditional reef conservation measures are insufficient to \r address climate change impacts on coral reefs (Section 5.2.2.1), adaptation interventions to enhance the resilience of coral reefs are \r being called for (Rinkevich, 1995; Rinkevich, 2000; Barton et al. 2017). Intervention strategies that are still at the 'proof-of-concept' stage, \r include: 'assisted colonisation' - actively moving species that are confined to disappearing habitats (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. 2008; \r [...]"


id: ef1740c11bcf4a87c887c75c764eadc5
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39434
content:
"[...] Chauvenet et al. 2013); 'assisted evolution' - developing corals resistant to climate change via accelerated natural evolution processes \r (van Oppen et al. 2015); assisted coral chimerism (Rinkevich, 2019); novel coral symbiont associations (McIlroy and Coffroth, 2017); and \r coral microbiome manipulation (Bourne et al. 2016; Sweet and Bulling, 2017; van Oppen et al. 2017b). In contrast, the 'coral gardening' \r approachs - coral farmed in nurseries and transplanted using a range of tactics to increase survivability, growth rates and reproduction \r (Rinkevich, 2006; Rinkevich, 2014) - is already in use. Other interventions that have already been implemented in some coral reefs, \r such as the use of artificial reefs (Ng et al. 2017) are limited in impacts, and all are also revealing considerable challenges (Riegl et al. 2011; \r Coles and Riegl, 2013; Ferrario et al. 2014). "


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"Many of the alternative interventions that aim to increase the climate resilience of coral reefs involve culturing, selectively breeding \r and transplanting corals to enhance the adaptability of reef organisms to climate change, for example, by supporting the natural \r poleward range expansion of corals (West et al. 2017; Verges et al. 2019). Advances in reef restoration techniques have been made \r in the last two decades (Rinkevich, 2014; Lirman and Schopmeyer, 2016), but assessments of the effectiveness of these techniques \r have mostly focused on the short-term feasibility of the technique (Frias-Torres and van de Geer, 2015; Lirman and Schopmeyer, 2016; \r Montoya Maya et al. 2016; Jacob et al. 2017; Rachmilovitz and Rinkevich, 2017), while longer-term evaluation in the context of all the \r pillars of sustainable development (Section 5.4.2) is limited (Rinkevich, 2015b; Barton et al. 2017; Flores et al. 2017; Hein et al. 2017). \r [...]"


id: beee0d10882654a5f62c8c5bc3606e21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] These alternative interventions, primarily the coral gardening approach, face two challenges. The first is scaling up; currently, these \r interventions have been tested at scales of hundreds of meters, while application at larger scale is lacking (Rinkevich, 2014). The second \r challenge (Box 5.5, Figure 1) is the effectiveness of active reef restoration to mitigate or rehabilitate global change impacts (Shaish et al. \r 2010a; Schopmeyer et al. 2012; Coles and Riegl, 2013; Hernandez-Delgado et al. 2014; Rinkevich, 2015a; Wilson and Forsyth, 2018) and \r whether it can keep up with rising sea levels (Perry et al. 2018), especially in low-lying ocean states. "


id: eb457a4af3578333e8eea0b7bd7d1d0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38747
content:
"Altogether, coral reefs of the future will not resemble those of today because of the projected decline and changes in the composition \r of corals and associated species in the remaining reefs (Section 5.3.4, Box 5.5 Figure 1) (Rinkevich, 2008; Ban et al. 2014) (high \r confidence). The very high vulnerability of coral reefs to warming, ocean acidification, increasing storm intensity and SLR under climate \r change (AR5 WG2), including enhanced bioerosion (Schonberg et al. 2017) (high confidence) point to the importance of considering \r both mitigation (Section 5.5.1) and adaptation (Section 5.3.3.6) for coral reefs. Extensive research has explored adaptation measures \r involving the cultivation and transplantation of corals; however, the literature contains limited evidence on the comprehensive analysis \r of the relative costs and benefits of these interventions across the economic, ecological, social and cultural dimensions (Bayraktarov et al. \r [...]"


id: 1de3bee141d1587eedb11899d1ab2bc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2450
content:
"Mangrove EbA responses most commonly reported included ecosystem \r restoration (Sierra-Correa and Cantera Kintz, 2015; Romanach et al. \r 2018) and management such as mangroves re-planting through \r community participation programmes (Nanlohy et al. 2015; Nguyen \r et al. 2017; Triyanti et al. 2017). Mangrove EbA has been reported to \r provide multiple co-benefits in terms of improvement in support for \r coastal physical processes, including: shoreline stabilisation (Hayden \r and Granek, 2015; Nanlohy et  al. 2015); ecological functioning \r (Sierra-Correa and Cantera Kintz, 2015; Miller et  al. 2017) with \r improved ecosystem services (Alongi, 2015; Nanlohy et  al. 2015; \r Palacios and Cantera, 2017); carbon mitigation (5.5.1.1); supporting \r livelihoods (Nanlohy et al. 2015; Nguyen et al. 2017); and reductions \r in coastal infrastructure damage and community vulnerability to \r climate change impacts. Managed retreat to counter coastal squeeze \r [...]"


id: aa1aea39b0d7a59a5ab32f96a01f299e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27154
content:
"[...] (Section 5.3) through improved governance, creation of finance and \r land use planning can allow mangroves to move up the shoreline "


id: 778dc75d48ffb32166c53115fe167f66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18237
content:
"The application of EbA approaches can be more effective when \r incorporating local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge and \r cultural practices into adaptation responses (Ataur Rahman \r and Rahman, 2015; Perkins et  al. 2015; Sutton-Grier et  al. 2015; \r Sanchez-Arcilla et al. 2016; van der Nat et al. 2016). The application \r of synergistic combinations of adaptation responses in multiple \r ecosystems can provide a range of co-benefits, and this approach \r is strengthened when combined with socioinstitutional approaches \r (Kochnower et al. 2015; MacDonald et al. 2017). Research to improve \r and refine EbA approaches and increase their specificity to local \r context is important for their effectiveness in reducing climate risks \r and generating co-benefits (Sutton-Grier et  al. 2015). Conversely, \r a lack of inclusion of local communities and economic undervaluation \r of specific coastal and marine ecosystems, compounded by gaps in \r [...]"


id: e9df2c7fc6484f4a4a6a1bbbcad2d33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38495
content:
"[...] scientific data, can undermine the potential effectiveness of EbA \r approaches (Perkins et al. 2015; Hernandez-Gonzalez et al.; Narayan \r et al. 2016; Roberts et al. 2017)."


id: 9a10fb8e234aef721471bdda7a43f3fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24343
content:
"Coastal dune systems are widely transformed globally. Human \r disturbance and the limited stabilising ability of dune vegetation \r are key causes of degradation (Onaka et al. 2015; Ranasinghe, 2016; \r MacDonald et al. 2017; Pranzini, 2017; Salgado and Martinez, 2017; \r Vikolainen et al. 2017; Gracia et al. 2018), while restoration efforts can \r be supported by both hard (Sutton-Grier et al. 2015; Pranzini, 2017) \r and soft (Sutton-Grier et al. 2015; Vikolainen et al. 2017) engineering \r responses. Reduced coastal erosion (Sanchez-Arcilla et  al. 2016; \r Goreau and Prong, 2017; Vikolainen et al. 2017; Carro, 2018; Gracia \r et al. 2018) and flood risk (Onaka et al. 2015; MacDonald et al. 2017; \r Nehren et  al. 2017) through maintaining dunes as natural buffers \r against wave energy (Nehren et al. 2017) can increase resilience to \r climate change impacts (Sutton-Grier et al. 2015; Magnan and Duvat, \r 2018). Engineered responses and sand replenishment are considered \r [...]"


id: f7886c784c9c5e3d277b058858bc7245
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40924
content:
"[...] complementary approaches (Onaka et al. 2015; Martinez et al. 2017). \r Section 4.4.4.1 provides an overview of sediment-based adaptation \r response measures, including cost estimates for beach nourishment \r and dune maintenance, a discussion of co-benefits and drawbacks \r of combining hard and soft infrastructure measures, and challenges \r with sourcing sediment for beach replenishment. In some cases dune \r restoration and sand replenishment projects have not been successful, \r due to fire damage (Shumack and Hesse, 2017) or the rapid loss of \r sand within replenishment schemes due to coastal processes and \r stakeholder rejection of adaptation activities (Pranzini, 2017). Coastal \r dune restoration and beach replenishment are effective responses \r against coastal erosion and flooding, where sufficient materials and \r space to implement are available (medium confidence)."


id: 2f69c2633b22bed50393336706a7ee19
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5605
content:
"There is a growing body of literature regarding the effectiveness \r and economics of EbA. In addition to building resilience to climate \r change, EbA is expected to bring a wide range of co-benefits that \r include increasing ecological complexity, with multiple ecosystem \r services, and other economic co-benefits (Perkins et al. 2015; Perry, \r 2015; Moosavi, 2017; Scarano, 2017). The cost-effectiveness of EbA \r approaches varies between marine ecosystem types; for example, \r coral reefs (Perkins et al. 2015; Beetham et al. 2017; Elliff and Silva, \r 2017; Beck et al. 2018; Comte and Pendleton, 2018) and salt-marshes \r (Ondiviela et al. 2014; Miloshis and Fairfield, 2015; Schaeffer-Novelli \r et  al. 2016; Wigand et  al. 2017) performed best at reducing wave \r heights, whilst salt marshes and mangroves were two to five times \r cheaper than submerged breakwaters for wave heights of less \r than half a meter. Although low regrets, win-win approaches like \r [...]"


id: 1c6b7a5b3b35951db16ef6131d187ee3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2189
content:
"[...] EbA are supported in the literature (Watkiss et  al. 2014; Barange \r et al. 2018), syntheses of experience from context-specific practical "


id: 52221aca8e5cafcc00a061b58e7644b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11722
content:
"Ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss will further compound \r impacts in coastal communities and fisheries and aquaculture (Ataur \r Rahman and Rahman, 2015; Petzold and Ratter, 2015; Dhar and \r Khirfan, 2016), with sub-lethal species impacts like changes in the \r productivity and distribution of fisheries target species reported for \r the latter (Gourlie et al. 2018; Nursey-Bray et al. 2018; Pinsky et al. \r 2018) (high confidence). This is likely to result in decreased access to \r ecosystem services (Asch et al. 2018; Cheung et al. 2018b; Finkbeiner \r et  al. 2018) (medium evidence, high agreement), local declines in \r agriculture and fisheries (Cvitanovic et al. 2016; Faraco et al. 2016) \r (high confidence) and livelihood impacts (Harkes et al. 2015; Busch \r et al. 2016; Valmonte-Santos et al. 2016) (high confidence) in coastal \r communities and fisheries and aquaculture, particularly increased \r food insecurity and health risk in the latter (high confidence). These \r [...]"


id: 5d4143e15f8af494fb3c4b92a896671b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13684
content:
"[...] livelihood impacts are likely to increase social vulnerability (high \r confidence). Businesses within coastal communities are likely to \r experience disruptions and losses (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: ba662763f72bcb1234e30b6bc36bbcf0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30013
content:
"Social responses include increasing climate change awareness, \r improving participatory decision making through bottom-up \r approaches, community organisation for action and engagements \r with local management authorities (Dutra et al. 2015; Tapsuwan and \r Rongrongmuang, 2015; Galappaththi et  al. 2017; Ray et  al. 2017; \r Cinner et al. 2018; Hagedoorn et al. 2019). In coastal communities, and \r indeed in most other sectors, despite consensus on the importance \r of cooperation in tackling climate change (Elrick-Barr et al. 2016), \r adaptation progress may be hampered by competing economic \r interests and worldviews (Hamilton and Safford, 2015), which can be \r compounded by limited climate change knowledge (Nanlohy et al. \r 2015). Factors like home ownership and a general future planning \r ability support resilience (Elrick-Barr et  al. 2016). Climate change \r adaptation capacity is shaped by historical path dependencies, local \r [...]"


id: d1bd0827ff2377593fe2f7dabdfe9610
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34253
content:
"[...] context and international linkages, while action is shaped by science, \r research partnerships and citizen participation (Hernandez-Delgado, \r 2015; Sheller and Leon, 2016). Locally context-specific data to guide \r appropriate adaptation response remains a knowledge gap (Abedin \r and Shaw, 2015; Hobday et al. 2015; Lirman and Schopmeyer, 2016; \r Williams et al. 2016)."


id: 156c8f69054a4ac7fc2d50147bf05562
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 984
content:
"Governance responses to support adaptation in fisheries communities \r include conducting vulnerability assessments, improving monitoring \r of ecosystem indicators and evaluating management strategies \r (Himes-Cornell and Kasperski, 2015b; Busch et al. 2016). Socioeconomic \r factors like access to alternative income, mobility, gender and religion \r collectively shape a community's adaptation response (Arroyo Mina \r et al. 2016). In West Africa, the industrial fishery response to climate \r change induced reductions in landings was the expansion of fishing \r grounds, which increased operational costs (Belhabib et al. 2016). This \r response is not available to artisanal and local fishing communities, \r who are considered highly vulnerable (Kais and Islam, 2017). Access \r to finance to support these communities or their governments could \r help them reach novel fishing grounds, and, therefore, potentially \r reduce their vulnerability. Food security linked to fisheries depends on \r [...]"


id: a55966a75865c37372da569ad9adb63d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26318
content:
"[...] stock recovery, but also on access to and distribution of the harvest, \r as well as gender considerations (Bene et al. 2015). Hence, granting \r preferential access to dependent coastal communities should be \r considered in examining policy options. Other adaptation responses \r include improved fishing gear and technology, use of fish aggregating \r devices and uptake of insurance products (Zougmore et al. 2016) [see \r Barange et al. (2018) for a summary of possible adaptation responses]. \r Community response as a part of climate change adaptation for local \r fisheries is an important element in assessing adaptive capacity \r (medium evidence, good agreement)."


id: 3b3b3fa646f49e7cc751c7d2d4015ef8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7610
content:
"Range shifts under ocean warming (Section 5.2.3) will alter the \r distribution of fish stocks across political boundaries, thus demand for \r transboundary fisheries management will increase. Redistribution of \r transboundary fish stocks between countries (Ho et al. 2016; Gourlie \r et al. 2017; Asch et al. 2018) could destabilise existing international \r fisheries agreements and increase the risk of international conflicts \r (Section 5.4.2). Adaptation to reduce risks in international fisheries \r management could involve improving planning for cooperative \r management between countries informed by reliable predictions \r (Payne et al. 2017) and projections (Pinsky et al. 2018) of species shifts \r and associated uncertainties. Cooperative international fisheries \r arrangements, such as flexible fishing effort allocation and adaptive \r frameworks (Colburn et al. 2016; Cvitanovic et al. 2016; Faraco et al. \r 2016) may also improve the robustness of fisheries management \r [...]"


id: 509861d0f49d0dd84642426eb20a1c03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11452
content:
"[...] (Miller et  al. 2013). Thus, although range shifts pose significant \r challenges to transboundary fisheries management, proactive \r planning and adjustment of fisheries management arrangements, \r informed by scientific projections, could help improve adaptive \r capacity (medium confidence). The effectiveness of incorporating \r MPAs as an adaptation strategy to climate change can be improved \r by considering climate impacts in the design of MPAs (medium, \r high agreement). "


id: fada714bd75a20efc5ed9b996964619f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41514
content:
"Improving integrated coastal management and better planning for \r MPAs by incorporating projected shifting biological communities, \r abundance and life history changes (Alvarez-Romero et  al. 2018) \r due to climate change could contribute towards improved fisheries \r adaptive management by, for example, increasing resilience of \r habitats, providing refugia for species with shifting distributions and \r by conserving biodiversity (Faraco et al. 2016; Valmonte-Santos et al. \r 2016; Dasgupta et al. 2017; Le Cornu et al. 2017; Roberts et al. 2017; \r Asch et al. 2018; Cheung et al. 2018b; Harvey et al. 2018; Jones et al. \r 2018; O'Leary and Roberts, 2018) (Sections 5.2.3, 5.3, 5.4.1), but \r MPAs may also reduce access to subsistence fishers, increasing their \r vulnerability to food insecurity (Bennett et al. 2016; Faraco et al. 2016). \r The global area of MPAs is rapidly increasing towards the United \r Nations' target of 10% of the global ocean. While this is encouraging, \r [...]"


id: dc1273be9ca9175f5c1a951044d7057b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35997
content:
"[...] it is estimated that only 2% of the ocean is well enough managed, \r as described in (Edgar et  al. 2014), to meet conservation goals \r (Sala et al. 2018). Improving the implementation and coordination \r of policies, and improving integrated coastal management and MPAs \r have emerged in the literature as important adaptation governance \r responses (robust evidence, medium agreement)."


id: e113ff58d6766a6dccd7f0da027bcb34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36864
content:
"In considering a participatory decision making approach for fisheries \r management that responds to climate change, Heenan et al. (2015) \r provided a number of key elements that contribute towards \r a  successful outcome. These include expert knowledge of climate \r change threats to fish habitats, stocks and landings, the necessity \r of transdisciplinary collaboration and stakeholder participation, \r broadening the range and scope of fisheries systems and increased \r commitment of resources and capacity. This was considered in the \r context of the ability of developing countries to sustainably exploit \r fisheries resources and related ecosystems. More research is required \r on socio-ecological responses to climate change impacts on fishery \r communities, including such aspect as like risk reduction, adaptive \r capacity through knowledge attainment and social networks, \r developing alternative skills and participatory approaches to \r [...]"


id: 51042922aff15677518dd53cfdcaa185
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11534
content:
"[...] decision making (Dubey et al. 2017; Shaffril et al. 2017; Finkbeiner \r et al. 2018). Important fisheries adaptation responses in relation to "


id: eb588a971e5191e0d4d89d38b70900de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38762
content:
"Climate change impacts upon tourism are nuanced and not restricted \r to just physical impacts on tourism establishments (Biggs et al. 2015). \r Understanding the drivers of tourist choices could help support \r adaptation in the industry through marine spatial planning processes \r (Papageorgiou, 2016). For example, in an survey ranking mitigation \r and adaptation responses in Greece, tourists prioritised rational \r energy use, energy efficiency and water saving measures (Michailidou \r et al. 2016b). Location specific information of tourist choices could \r help shape local industries. In one example from the Thailand dive \r industry, climate change adaptation responses of participants were \r reported to be based on misconceptions about climate change and \r personal observations (Tapsuwan and Rongrongmuang, 2015). To \r improve community-based adaptation, efforts aimed at broadening \r the level of awareness about climate change could improve decision \r [...]"


id: 25d165dc5fce61b7a6af5bae167bee08
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3835
content:
"[...] making processes (Tapsuwan and Rongrongmuang, 2015). Tourist \r behaviour is shaped by changing ocean physical processes and \r degrading ecosystems at tourist destinations, which drive destination \r changes, economic flows and market share adjustments. (Bujosa \r et al. 2015; De Urioste-Stone et al. 2016). "


id: ed0bd1acb9c69dd426d663df12922413
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39073
content:
"As with fisheries, community- and ecosystem-based adaptation \r responses, an integrated coastal management framework is \r considered useful for planning for anticipated challenges for \r aquaculture (Ahmed and Diana, 2015b; Barange et  al. 2018). \r Where in situ adaptation is not possible, translocation and \r polyculture (Ahmed and Diana, 2015a; Bunting et  al. 2017) have \r been suggested as appropriate responses, but this would suit \r commercial rather than subsistence interests. Policy, economic, \r knowledge and other types of support are required to build socio\u0002ecological resilience of vulnerable coastal aquaculture communities \r (Harkes et al. 2015; Bunting et al. 2017; Rodriguez-Rodriguez and \r Bande Ramudo, 2017), which requires a deep understanding of \r the nature of stressors and a commitment for collective action \r (Galappaththi et al. 2017). Climate resilient pathway development \r (see Cross-Chapter Box 2) is considered a useful framework for Sri \r [...]"


id: a39365a3768d96b1ca4b9715d8eee969
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25985
content:
"[...] Lankan shrimp aquaculture (Harkes et al. 2015). Another example \r of successful aquaculture adaptation is the employment of near \r real time monitoring technology to track the carbonate chemistry \r in water to reduce bio-erosion in shellfish from acidification (Barton \r et al. 2015; Cooley et al. 2016). Numerous adaptation responses are \r available for aquaculture, but some options, like translocation and \r technological responses may not be available to subsistence-based \r communities (medium evidence). "


id: 914ca3bdf1e10ee6872de26f5d218a3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22770
content:
"Seasonal and decadal forecasting tools have improved rapidly since \r AR5, especially in supporting management of living marine resources \r (Payne et  al. 2017) and modelling to support decision making \r processes (Cerkasova et al. 2016; Chapman and Darby, 2016; Jiang \r et al. 2016; Justic et al. 2016; Joyce et al. 2017; Mitchell et al. 2017). \r Decision making processes are supported by economic evaluations \r (Bujosa et  al. 2015; Jones et  al. 2015), evaluations of ecosystem \r services (MacDonald et al. 2017; Micallef et al. 2018), participatory \r processes (Byrne et  al. 2015) and social learning outcomes, the \r development of adaptation pathways, frameworks and decision \r making (Buurman and Babovic, 2016; Dittrich et al. 2016; Michailidou \r et  al. 2016a; Osorio-Cano et  al. 2017; Cumiskey et  al. 2018), and \r indicators to support evaluation of adaptation actions (Carapuco \r et  al. 2016; Nguyen et  al. 2016) through monitoring frameworks \r [...]"


id: a5372879412bc9ec9260e054c5b6549a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26294
content:
"[...] (Huxham et  al. 2015). Climate change adaptation responses are \r more effective when developed within institutional frameworks that \r include effective planning and cross-sector integration."


id: 404c4909f0003d188db705510b1a3786
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8501
content:
"Evidence-based decision making for climate adaptation is strongly \r supported in the literature (Endo et  al. 2017; Thorne et  al. 2017) \r through better understanding of coastal ecosystems and human \r adaptation responses (Dutra et al. 2015; Cvitanovic et al. 2016), as \r well as consideration of non-climate change related factors. Relevant \r research includes the topics of: multiple-stakeholder participatory \r planning (Archer et al. 2014; Abedin and Shaw, 2015); trans-boundary \r ocean management (Gormley et  al. 2015; Williams et  al. 2016); \r ecosystem-based adaptation (Hobday et  al. 2015; Dalyander et  al. \r 2016; McNeeley et al. 2017; Osorio-Cano et al. 2017); and community\u0002based adaptation with socioeconomic outcomes (Merkens et  al. \r 2016). Research on applying 'big data' and high end computational \r capabilities could also help develop a comprehensive understanding \r of climate and non-climate variables in planning for coastal adaptation \r [...]"


id: ea208f41099dbba8bb1461c2315c6ee4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38544
content:
"[...] (Rumson et  al. 2017). New knowledge from these research areas \r could substantially improve planning, implementation and monitoring \r of climate adaptation responses for marine systems, if research \r processes are participatory and inclusive (medium confidence)."


id: f9bfb07c2e99114a6db649bd58d70d99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41301
content:
"In contrast with the many examples of proposed frameworks for \r climate resilient coastal adaptation, few studies have assessed \r their success, possibly due to the time-lag between implementation, \r monitoring, evaluation and reporting. Nevertheless, there is substantial \r support for 'no regrets' approaches addressing both proximate and \r systematic underlying drivers of vulnerability (Sanchez-Arcilla et al. \r 2016; Pentz and Klenk, 2017; Zandvoort et al. 2017) with leadership, \r adaptive management, capacity and the monitoring and evaluation \r of actions considered useful in governance responses (Dutra et  al. \r 2015; Doherty et al. 2016). More extensive learning processes could \r help build decision makers' capacity to tackle systemic drivers, guide \r pursuance climate change appropriate policies (Barange et al. 2018) \r and to scrutinise potentially maladaptive infrastructural investments \r (Wise et  al. 2016). More effective coordination across a range \r [...]"


id: 8a6b674a3aa75e8c178b0999b0842863
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] of stakeholders, within and between organisations, especially in \r developing countries, would strengthen the global coastal adaptation \r response (medium confidence)."


id: beef378d6397d40c14a7385c1840fb53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30859
content:
"Local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge systems can complement \r scientific knowledge by, for example, improving community ability \r to understand their local environment (Andrachuk and Armitage, \r 2015), forecast extreme events (Audefroy and Sanchez, 2017) and \r help to increase community resilience (Leon et al. 2015; Sakakibara, \r 2017; Cinner et al. 2018; Panikkar et al. 2018). Committing resources \r could strengthen local level adaptation planning (Alam et  al. \r 2016; Novak Colwell et al. 2017) through the inclusion of cultural \r practices (Audefroy and Sanchez, 2017; Fatoric and Seekamp, 2017) \r and Indigenous knowledge systems (Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; von \r Storch et al. 2015). Local knowledge can, however, act as a barrier \r to adaptation where there is a strong dependency upon such \r knowledge for immediate survival, to the detriment of long-term \r adaptation planning (Marshall et  al. 2013; Metcalf et  al. 2015). \r [...]"


id: 5dfeb5878186853d0e371771208b8675
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] There is evidence, however, to suggest that vulnerability in fisheries \r communities and coastal tourism operators with high levels of Local \r knowledge is reduced where they have a correspondingly high level \r of adaptive capacity (Marshall et al. 2013). Resource users with high \r levels of local knowledge may also be able to identify signals of "


id: dbf09f97223145c3ea7e486b6d759a3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35981
content:
"There is a broad range of reported barriers and limits to climate \r change adaptation for both ecosystems and human systems. Coastal \r ecosystem-based adaptation can be physically constrained by \r space requirements and coastal squeeze (Sutton-Grier et  al. 2015; \r Robins et al. 2016; Sanchez-Arcilla et al. 2016; Ahmed et al. 2017; \r Pena-Alonso et al. 2017; Salgado and Martinez, 2017; Triyanti et al. \r 2017; Schuerch et al. 2018), while the pace of climate change may \r exceed the adaptive capacity of ecosystems, for example, SLR may \r outpace the vertical reef accretion rate (Beetham et al. 2017; Elliff \r and Silva, 2017; Joyce et al. 2017). One technical limit for coral reef \r adaptation is that tools have not yet been developed for large-scale \r implementation (van Oppen et al. 2017a). Ecosystems may also have \r physiological and ecological constraints which are exceeded by \r climate change impacts (Miller et al. 2017; Wigand et al. 2017), and \r [...]"


id: c0e0f7f50251b9846d3176f5574d9df8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31230
content:
"[...] the recovery periods of natural systems (Gracia et al. 2018) and for \r ecological succession (Salgado and Martinez, 2017) may be outpaced \r by climate change impacts. The performance of ecosystems in EBA \r projects may be inhibited by the poor condition of the ecosystem \r (Nehren et  al. 2017), highlighting the importance of effective \r implementation (Salgado and Martinez, 2017)."


id: 3e436edd4ceb9e564f3821fb510dccdb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8131
content:
"Human systems have similar limitations. Improved understanding \r of limitations in built infrastructure, beach nourishment and \r nature-based adaptation responses, especially with respect to \r cost effectiveness and resilience, would substantially aid shoreline \r stabilisation attempts (Mackey and Ware, 2018). For artisanal \r fisheries, a range of physical and socioinstitutional limits and barriers \r to adaptation have been reported, including increasing occurrence \r and severity of storms limiting fishing time, technologically poor \r boats and fishing equipment and lack of access to credit and \r markets, among others (Islam et al. 2013). Conflicting interests and \r values of stakeholders (Evans et al. 2016), the path-dependent nature \r of organisations and resistance to change (Evans et  al. 2016) and \r inadequate collaboration and public awareness (Oulahen et al. 2018) \r have been reported as socioinstitutional barriers. A knowledge gap \r [...]"


id: 7550ed2c052f5c1a34bd8ffec2177c0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17870
content:
"[...] persists in understanding how such limits and barriers interact to \r suppress adaptation response."


id: 5b90f71488273800877b020d39ee0936
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13357
content:
"In some communities, climate change may not be prioritised in the \r face of chronic, daily challenges to secure livelihoods (Esteban et al. \r 2017; Fischer, 2018) or risk severity may be underestimated due to \r a high frequency of exposure in the recent past (Esteban et al. 2017). \r In a world with competing risks and urgent priorities, some local \r inhabitants appear to be unable to avoid, or are willing to carry, the \r risk associated with a climate impact in order to meet other, more \r pressing needs. This example reflects the reality of many poor, informal \r settlement dwellers in coastal areas around the world (medium \r confidence). Other human system barriers to effective adaptation \r action include insufficient climate change knowledge, inappropriate \r coping strategies, high dependency upon natural resources, level of \r exposure to hazards and weak community networks (Islam et  al. \r 2013; Nanlohy et al. 2015; Lohmann, 2016; Koya et al. 2017; Senapati \r [...]"


id: 1536a5085fcdb2d06e73691e6679a0c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 948
content:
"Social and cultural norms with conflicting and competing values \r (Miller et  al. 2017), public lack of knowledge on climate change \r and distrust of information sources (Wynveen and Sutton, 2015), as \r well as populations increasingly distanced from, and unconcerned \r about nature (Romanach et  al. 2018), may constrain ecosystem\u0002based adaptation response. Examples of governance adaptation \r constraints include: inadequate policy, governance and institutional \r structures (Sanchez-Arcilla et  al. 2016; Miller et  al. 2017; Wigand \r et al. 2017), limited capacity (Sutton-Grier et al. 2015; Thorne et al. \r 2017), ineffective implementation (Nguyen et al. 2017; Comte and \r Pendleton, 2018), and poor enforcement (Nguyen et  al. 2017). \r Governance constraints are compounded by lack of finances (Miller \r et al. 2017), financial costs of design and implementation (Gallagher \r et al. 2015) and the high cost of coastal land (Gracia et al. 2018), \r [...]"


id: ab2cbbba708f51d45e3b7d0acec2b38e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27343
content:
"[...] although ecosystem-based adaptation is considered cheaper than \r human-made structures (Nehren et al. 2017; Salgado and Martinez, \r 2017; Vikolainen et al. 2017; Gracia et al. 2018)."


id: a1824a6e1748efdc4bc7e7c18765b1c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25631
content:
"There has been a substantial amount of literature focused on coastal \r and oceanic adaptation since AR5. Socio-institutional adaptation \r responses are the more numerous of the three types of adaptation \r responses assessed in this chapter. There is broad agreement that hard \r engineering responses are optimally supported by ecosystem-based \r adaptation approaches, and both approaches should be augmented \r by socioinstitutional approaches for adaptation (high confidence) \r (Nicholls et al. 2015; Peirson et al. 2015; Sanchez-Arcilla et al. 2016; \r van der Nat et  al. 2016; Francesch-Huidobro et  al. 2017; Khamis \r et  al. 2017). In planning adaptation responses, awareness-raising \r and stakeholder engagement processes are important for buy-in \r and ownership of responses (robust evidence, high agreement) as is \r institutional capacity within local government organisations, whose \r importance in coastal adaptation initiatives has been emphasised \r [...]"


id: 2685d5173eae20aa0b59050f6c161f7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3941
content:
"[...] in the recent literature (robust evidence, high agreement). With all \r three types of adaptation, basic good governance and effective \r implementation of service delivery processes are prerequisites for \r successful adaptation planning and response."


id: df10d64cf43a540127cf9dce3bdba6cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36495
content:
"Existing ocean governance structures for the ocean already face \r multi-dimensional challenges because of climate change, and this \r trend of increasing complexity will continue (Galaz et  al. 2012). \r Current international governance regimes and structures for fisheries \r and the ocean environment do not yet adequately address the issues \r of ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation (Oral, 2018; \r Box  5.6). At the time of the initial development and adoption of \r these legal and governance regimes, minimal attention was given \r to climate change and the effects of carbon dioxide emissions on the \r ocean, with associated impacts on the interacting physical, chemical, \r biological properties of the ecosystems, and the resulting risks and \r vulnerabilities of dependent communities and economic sectors. \r In  particular, the governance of ocean ABNJ is a major challenge \r (Levin and Le Bris, 2015); the collaborative structures and mechanisms \r [...]"


id: 4881989a7503f1d749e372f5a5e35fbb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9969
content:
"[...] for environmental assessment in ABNJ need further development \r (Warner, 2018) (high confidence). Negotiations are currently ongoing \r regarding a new international agreement for marine biodiversity of \r ABNJ (UNEP, 2016)."


id: cb6d5bc3cf78ed1a4da7b3a4738ffb22
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33119
content:
"Acronyms and organisations: CBD, Convention on Biological Diversity; CCAMLR, Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources; CITES, Convention on \r International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora; IMO: International Maritime Organization; London Convention: Convention on the Prevention of Marine \r Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter; London Protocol: 1996 Protocol to the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other \r Matter; MARPOL Convention: International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships; NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions; OSPAR Convention: Convention \r for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic; UN Fish Stocks Agreement: The Agreement for the Implementation of the Provisions of the United \r [...]"


id: 3479291686e69eed4b503ee0f90b7491
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6466
content:
"[...] Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks; \r UNCLOS: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea; UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; WHC, World Heritage Convention: Convention \r Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage; FAO Compliance Agreement: The Agreement to Promote Compliance with International Conservation and \r Management Measures by Fishing Vessels on the High Seas; FAO PSMA: The Agreement on Port State Measures."


id: 692c08631ce73ebf6414b14910956ac1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15770
content:
"human systems ranges from virtually certain to low confidence (see \r Figure 5.24). Many of the observed changes in some variables can \r be directly attributed to human influence from rising greenhouse \r gases and other anthropogenic forcings (Section 5.2.2 and 5.2.3). For \r other variables and in some systems the evidence is less direct, but \r the cascading of risks from changing ocean, marine ecosystems and \r dependent communities remains robust when considered as a whole. \r The observed and projected changes in the ocean systems that are \r covered in this chapter are consistent with our understanding of \r ocean chemistry and circulation, and our knowledge of the ecosystems \r responses. In many cases, the assessments of risk level of ecosystems \r for the recent past and long-term future are based on multiple lines \r of evidence, combining ecological and physiological knowledge (from \r experiments, direct observations and model projections) with the \r [...]"


id: 781b71d464ff96fb1e369523ac22f764
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18341
content:
"[...] major climate drivers (e.g., Sections 5.2.5 and 5.3.4). Globally, all the \r marine ecosystems assessed here have elevated risk for biodiversity, \r ecosystem function, structure and services with increasing greenhouse \r gas emissions (Figure 5.16) (high confidence). These risks result from \r ocean warming, stratification, acidification, deoxygenation, SLR \r and associated changes as well as interactions with non-climatic \r human drivers. Most importantly, all the coastal ecosystems that \r were assessed, where linkages between natural systems and human "


id: 87e25801b85f78fe3bad44dc8635db24
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21062
content:
"This chapter has documented an extraordinary array of observed \r changes in the open ocean, deep sea and coasts. It draws on \r evidence from thousands of references from the literature, millions \r of observations and hundreds of simulations of the past and future \r scenarios. The ocean climate and its state, ecosystems and human \r systems have changed (Section 4.2.2.6, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, Figure 5.24) \r and are projected to change further. The ocean is a highly connected \r environment allowing water and living organisms to move freely. \r Change is observed across physical conditions that pose hazards \r to ecosystems in all regions from the surface to the deepest parts \r (Figure 5.24). All types of human and managed systems that have \r been covered in this chapter have evidence of mostly negative \r impacts but also some positive, some very significantly, some less \r so (Figure 5.24). Overall the multiple lines of evidence from the \r [...]"


id: 4f82985272e2f57a8b08502e3933660c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11275
content:
"[...] literature and the assessment in this chapter's Executive Summary \r point to profound and pervasive changes on regional and global \r scales (Figure 5.24)."


id: 2fb1deb17816e244f2c30d971899398
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5649
content:
"Figure 5.24 | Synthesis of observed regional hazards and impacts in the ocean assessed in SROCC. For the ocean, physical changes, impacts on key ecosystems, and \r impacts on human systems and ecosystem services are shown. For physical changes, yellow/green refers to an increase/decrease, respectively, in amount or frequency of the \r measured variable. For impacts on ecosystems, human systems and ecosystems services blue or red depicts whether an observed impact is positive (beneficial) or negative \r (adverse), respectively, to the given system or service. Cells assigned 'increase and decrease' indicate that within that region, both increases and decreases of physical \r changes are found, but are not necessarily equal; the same holds for cells showing 'positive and negative' attributable impacts. For ocean regions, the confidence level \r [...]"


id: 6de4341db67934faddb6ce297a89e96f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16595
content:
"[...] refers to the confidence in attributing observed changes to changes in greenhouse gas forcing for physical changes and to climate change for ecosystem, human systems, \r and ecosystem services. No assessment means: not applicable, not assessed at regional scale, or the evidence is insufficient for assessment. The physical changes in the \r ocean are defined as: Temperature change in 0-700 m layer of the ocean except for Southern Ocean (0-2000 m) and Arctic Ocean (upper mixed layer and major inflowing \r branches); Oxygen in the 0-1200 m layer or oxygen minimum layer; Ocean pH as surface pH (decreasing pH corresponds to increasing ocean acidification). Ecosystems \r in the ocean: Coral refers to warm-water coral reefs and cold-water corals. The 'upper water column' category refers to epipelagic zone for all ocean regions except Polar \r [...]"


id: e00bdc3810ba3cb73da0b63eb77a5d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36663
content:
"[...] Regions, where the impacts on some pelagic organisms in open water deeper than the upper 200 m were included. Coastal wetland includes salt marshes, mangroves \r and seagrasses. Kelp forests are habitats of a specific group of macroalgae. Rocky shores are coastal habitats dominated by immobile calcified organisms such as mussels \r and barnacles. Deep sea is seafloor ecosystems that are 3000-6000 m deep. Sea-ice associated includes ecosystems in, on and below sea ice. Habitat services refer to \r supporting structures and services (e.g., habitat, biodiversity, primary production). Coastal Carbon Sequestration refers to the uptake and storage of carbon by coastal blue \r carbon ecosystems. Impacts on tourism refer to the operating conditions for the tourism sector. Cultural services include cultural identity, sense of home, and spiritual and \r [...]"


id: e633e32168daf1a84c9aa8d2a7575708
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37804
content:
"[...] intrinsic and aesthetic values. The underlying information for ocean regions in Tables SM5.10, SM5.11, SM3.8, SM3.9, and SM3.10. {3.2.1; 3.2.3; 3.2.4; 3.3.3; 3.4.1; 3.4.3; \r 3.5.2; Box 3.4, 4.2.2, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.3.3, 5.4, 5.6, Figure 5.24, Box 5.3}"


id: b3dfc91b2f81349e08ced71002c3e045
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28887
content:
"deoxygenation of the world ocean and track the mechanisms driving \r the ocean carbon cycle. Our capacity to understand and model \r net primary productivity and the rates of carbon burial in coastal \r sediments are also significant weaknesses. Projections of future \r changes in the Earth system depend on the use of ESMs, in which \r there are uncertainties arising from physical or ecological processes \r that are either omitted or incompletely understood. Most ESMs still \r rely on relatively simple representations of ocean biogeochemical \r cycling and the linkages to ocean ecosystem structure and function \r (Section 5.2.3). Other examples of under-assessed biogeochemical \r process in the ocean that may have implications for the Earth system \r under climate change include the fate of methane in the deep ocean \r (Section 5.2.4). Open ocean primary productivity and its projections \r requires critical corroborating measurements and improved \r [...]"


id: 87e5f70669ba972188985dc220cf5552
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21065
content:
"[...] understanding of its drivers to project changes in ocean productivity \r with higher confidence (Sections 5.2.2 and 5.2.3)."


id: 56e4908ed4472c38e007693c4abc3e14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12537
content:
"Risk-reduction responses and their governance through adaptation \r at the local scale are the most common responses to climate change \r from ocean systems (Section 5.5.2). It is clear that there are many \r choices for reducing risk of climate change. Many of the actions \r have benefits and relatively few dis-benefits, while others have large \r dis-benefits and marginal effectiveness (Section 5.5.1, Figure 5.23, \r Table 5.7 and Table 5.8). Many of the risk reduction approaches are \r limited in their capacity to reduce the risks of climate change, or are at \r best temporary solutions, which is a significant challenge to adapting \r to climate change (high confidence). In particular, the effectiveness \r of the assessed risk reduction measures are minimal under high \r greenhouse gas emission scenarios, highlighting the critical \r importance of mitigation. The assessment points to the  increased \r effectiveness and importance of a portfolio of different types of \r [...]"


id: 96cc6a74fe2f6e464e2823d64f5e327c
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23729
content:
"[...] mitigation and adaptation options. Governance is also a critical \r element in the portfolio of options and occurs at local, national and \r international scales. Such responses can be more effective with the \r support of scientific information, Local knowledge and Indigenous \r knowledge, and the consideration of local context and the inclusion \r of stakeholders."


id: dc8293a47c5c1d1034ed41d347c2c6ae
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36059
content:
"Variance in human systems and effectiveness of responses: The \r wide range of contributing factors (physical, social and economic) \r that interact with localised climate projections make projecting \r site-specific costs of impacts and benefits of adaptation difficult. \r There were few examples in the literature evaluating implemented \r adaptation actions, and there was low confidence in their reliability \r and provenance, thus largely precluding any assessments of their cost \r effectiveness. This lack of evidence on costs and benefits particularly \r affected assessments in Section 5.4 and 5.5. Adaptation responses to \r climate change have been undertaken by communities, industry and \r governments. However, their effectiveness for mitigating the risks of \r climate change (e.g., different types of adaptation response on the \r coasts, Section 5.5.2) is largely unassessed here, and consequently \r precludes a global understanding of the capacity in the world to \r [...]"


id: c771efd168f11c093a499d69e069cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32402
content:
"[...] address the risks of climate change in coastal seas, open ocean and \r the deep sea. A partial solution would be establishing an appropriate \r ocean and coasts database, including costs-benefits, for these types \r of studies."


id: cf65a5bfe166e3aa29f62fc476d815
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33842
content:
"Warm water coral reefs host a wide variety of marine life and are very important for tropical fisheries and other \r marine and human systems. They are particularly vulnerable, since they can suffer high mortalities when water \r temperatures persist above a threshold of between 1oC-2oC above the normal range. Such conditions occurred \r in many tropical seas between 2015 and 2017 and resulted in extensive coral bleaching, when the coral animal \r hosts ejected the algal partners upon which they depend. After mass coral mortalities due to bleaching, reef \r recovery typically takes at least 10-15 years. Other impacts of climate change include SLR, acidification and reef \r erosion. Whilst some coral species are more resilient than others, and impacts vary between regions, further reef \r degradation due to future climate change now seems inevitable, with serious consequences for other marine \r [...]"


id: 5e547298c6d44fde2dc134edad9a3cb7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13888
content:
"[...] and coastal ecosystems, like loss of coastal protection for many islands and low-lying areas and loss of the high \r biodiversity these reefs host. Coral habitats can also occur in deeper waters and cooler seas, and more research is \r needed to understand impacts in these reefs. Although these cold water corals are not at risk from bleaching, due \r to their cooler environment, they may weaken or dissolve under ocean acidification, and other ocean changes. "


id: a9787ed9924a717212570158ce667d8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27040
content:
"Figure 6.1 | Framework used in this chapter (see discussion in Chapter 1). Singular or multiple climate drivers can lead to extreme hazards and associated cascading \r impacts, which combined with non-climatic drivers affect exposure and vulnerability, leading to compound risks. Extremes discussed are tropical cyclones (TCs) and \r extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and associated sea surface dynamics (Section 6.3); marine heatwaves (MHWs) (Section 6.4), extreme El Nino and La Nina events (Section 6.5); \r and extreme oceanic decadal variability (Section 6.6). Examples of abrupt events, irreversibility and tipping points discussed are the Atlantic Meridional Overturning \r Circulation (AMOC) and subpolar gyre (SPG) system (Section 6.7). Section 6.2 also collects examples of such events from the rest of the Special Report on the Oceans and \r [...]"


id: 29ba08eb01370a2ecd72883ed0f96710
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4564
content:
"[...] Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) and compiles examples of events whose occurrence or severity has been linked to climate change. Cascading impacts and \r compound events are discussed in Section 6.8 and three examples are given in Box 6.1. Section 6.9 discusses risk management, climate resilience pathways, transformative \r governance adaptation and mitigation required to address societal and environmental risks."


id: 793e70781a79275e9be12f4e69125dee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18524
content:
"to be contrasted and builds consensus on the role of climate change \r when individual climate events are studied by multiple teams using \r different methods. A number of these events are summarised in \r Table 6.2 and Figure 6.2. Collectively, these studies show that the \r role of climate change in the ocean and cryosphere extreme events \r is increasingly driving extreme climate and weather events across \r the globe including compound events (high confidence). Some \r regions including Africa and the Pacific have had relatively fewer \r event attribution studies undertaken, possibly reflecting the lack of \r capacity by regional and national technical institutions. A caveat of \r this approach is that there is a potential for 'null results', that is, \r cases where attribution is not possible, to be reported. Nevertheless, \r there is no evidence that this is the case, and the number of recent \r studies and wide range of phenomena addressed suggests increasing \r [...]"


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"Further studies have investigated the dynamics of TCs. A modelling \r study investigated a series of low-frequency increases and decreases \r in TC activity over the North Atlantic over the 20th century \r (Dunstone  et  al. 2013). These variations, culminating in a recent \r rise in activity, are thought to be due in part to atmospheric aerosol \r forcing variations (aerosol forcing), which exerts a cooling effect \r (Booth  et  al. 2012; Dunstone et  al. 2013). However, the relative \r importance of internal variability vs. radiative forcing for multidecadal \r variability in the Atlantic basin, including TC variability, remains \r uncertain (Weinkle et al. 2012; Zhang et al. 2013; Vecchi et al. 2017; \r Yan et  al., 2017). Although the aerosol cooling effect has largely \r cancelled the increases in potential intensity over the observational \r period, according to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 \r (CMIP5) model historical runs, further anthropogenic warming in the \r [...]"


id: 409077df98bb5d1a62665f155c8f75cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] future is expected to dominate the aerosol cooling effect leading to \r increasing TC intensities (Sobel et al. 2016)."


id: 291cefa7a9d170981476ee69e078fac1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"TCs amplify wave heights along the tracks of rapidly moving cyclones \r (e.g., Moon et  al. 2015a) and can therefore increase mixing to the \r surface of cooler subsurface water. Several studies found that TCs \r reduce the projected thermal stratification of the upper ocean in \r CMIP5 models under global warming, thereby slightly offsetting the \r simulated TC-intensity increases under climate warming conditions \r (Emanuel, 2015; Huang et al. 2015b; Tuleya et al. 2016). On the other \r hand, freshening of the upper ocean by TC rainfall enhances density \r stratification by reducing near-surface salinity and this reduces the \r ability of TC's to cool the upper ocean, thereby having an influence \r opposite to the thermal stratification effect (Balaguru et al. 2015). In \r the late 21st century, increased salinity stratification was found to offset \r about 50% of the suppressive effects that TC mixing has on temperature \r stratification (Balaguru et al. 2015). Coupled ocean-atmosphere models \r [...]"


id: d2ba278030e0576b3dce36630c491546
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] still robustly project an increase of TC intensity with climate warming, and \r particularly for new TC-permitting coupled climate model simulations \r that compute internally consistent estimates of thermal stratification \r change (e.g., Kim et al. 2014a; Bhatia et al. 2018). Higher TC intensities \r in turn may further aggravate the impacts of SLR on TC-related coastal \r inundation extremes (Timmermans et al. 2017). "


id: 3350b05d8f6adf3bdbaafb07d05fb5bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6280
content:
"in intensity of the most intense TCs and a decline in TC frequency \r overall. However, the projected increase in global TC frequency by \r Emanuel (2013) and Bhatia et  al. (2018) differed from most other \r TC frequency projections and previous assessments. For studies \r into future track changes of TCs under climate warming scenarios \r (Li et al. 2010; Kim and Cai, 2014; Manganello et al. 2014; Knutson \r et al. 2015; Murakami et al. 2015; Roberts et al. 2015; Wehner et al. \r 2015; Nakamura et al. 2017; Park et al. 2017; Sugi et al. 2017; Yamada \r et al. 2017; Yoshida et al. 2017; Zhang et al. 2017a), it is difficult to \r identify a robust consensus of projected change in TC tracks, although \r several of the studies found either poleward or eastward expansion \r of TC occurrence over the North Pacific region resulting in greater \r storm occurrence in the central North Pacific. There have been new \r studies on storm size (Kim et al. 2014a; Knutson et al. 2015; Yamada \r [...]"


id: 43aba2bac23eabc5095888359d9d42b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] et al. 2017) under climate warming scenarios. These project TC size \r changes of up to +-10% between basins and studies and provide \r preliminary findings on this issue that future studies will continue \r to investigate. Several studies of TC storm surge (e.g., Lin et al. 2012; \r Garner et  al. 2017) suggest that SLR will dominate the increased \r height of storm surge due to TCs under climate change. "


id: 4ef9237f1e273843cd908f4d0aa2d082
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11179
content:
"ETCs form in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, North Pacific \r and Southern Oceans, and the Mediterranean Sea. The storm \r track regions are characterised by large surface equator-to-pole \r temperature gradients and baroclinic instability, and jet streams \r influence the direction and speed of movement of ETCs in this region. \r The thermodynamic response of the atmosphere to CO2 tends to \r have opposing influences on storm tracks; surface shortwave cloud \r radiative changes increase the equator-to-pole temperature gradient \r whereas longwave cloud radiative changes reduce it (Shaw et  al. \r 2016). AR5 concluded that the global number of ETCs is not expected \r to decrease by more than a few percent due to anthropogenic \r change. The Southern Hemisphere (SH) storm track is projected to \r have a small poleward shift, but the magnitude is model dependent \r (Christensen et  al. 2013). AR5 also found a low confidence in the \r [...]"


id: 9c18e89da47f25cdb0d8d5166676459a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24717
content:
"[...] magnitude of regional storm track changes and the impact of such \r changes on regional surface climate (Christensen et al. 2013)."


id: 28d1511cd676e0bbb2fb905b6a879f8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4395
content:
"A 'blocking' event is an extratropical weather system in which the \r anticyclone (region of high pressure) becomes quasi-stationary \r and interrupts the usual westerly flow and/or storm tracks for up \r to a  week or more (Woollings et  al. 2018). Recent attention has \r focused on whether Arctic warming is linked to increased blocking \r and mid-latitude weather extremes (Barnes and Screen, 2015; Francis \r and Skific, 2015; Francis and Vavrus, 2015; Kretschmer et al. 2016), \r such as drought in California due to sea ice changes that cause \r a reorganisation of tropical convection (Cvijanovic et al. 2017), cold \r and snowy winters over Europe and North America (Liu et al. 2012; \r Cohen et  al. 2018), extreme summer weather (Tang  et  al. 2013; \r Coumou et  al. 2014) and Balkan flooding (Stadtherr et  al. 2016). \r Studies suggest how blocking may influence arctic sea ice extent \r (Gong and Luo, 2017) and various pathways whereby Arctic warming \r [...]"


id: 607440acb20ee8ba2124970f47c71576
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] could influence extreme weather (Barnes and Screen, 2015) such as \r reducing the equator to pole temperature gradient, slowing the jet \r stream thereby increasing its meandering behaviour (Rothlisberger \r et al. 2016; Mann et al. 2017) or causing it to split (Coumou et al. \r 2014), changing local dynamics in the vicinity of the sea ice edge \r (Screen and Simmonds, 2013) or weakening the stratospheric \r polar vortex (Cohen et  al. 2014). However, sensitivity to choice of \r methodology (Screen and Simmonds, 2013) and large internal \r atmospheric variability masks the detection of such links in past \r records, and climate change can lead to opposing effects on the mid\u0002latitude jet stream response leading to large uncertainty in future \r changes (Barnes and Polvani, 2015; Barnes and Screen, 2015)."


id: bada0531a551cd538bbcf3ad99784f14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"Taking the above into account, the following is a summary assessment \r of TC detection and attribution. The observed poleward migration \r of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North \r Pacific appears to be unusual compared to expected natural \r variability and therefore there is low to medium confidence that \r this change represents a detectable climate change, though with \r only low confidence that the observed shift has a discernible \r positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing. Anthropogenic \r forcing is believed to be producing some poleward expansion of \r the tropical circulation with climate warming. Additional studies \r of observed long-term TC changes such as: an increase in annual \r global proportion of Category 4 or 5 TCs in recent decades, severe \r TCs occurring in the Arabian Sea, TCs making landfall in East and \r Southeast Asia, the increasing frequency of moderately large US \r storm surge events since 1923 and the decreasing frequency of \r [...]"


id: 98aa03d8b657b41962ee23750f3e8dd5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content_type: text
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vector_id: 24071
content:
"[...] severe TCs that make landfall in eastern Australia since the late \r 1800s, may each represent emerging anthropogenic signals, but still \r with low confidence (limited evidence). The lack of confident climate \r change detection for most TC metrics continues to limit confidence \r in both future projections and in the attribution of past changes and \r TC events, since TC event attribution in most published studies is \r generally being inferred without support from a confident climate \r change detection of a long-term trend in TC activity. "


id: d9e032b581f4eb3b30dbe6316a60144b
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The results of several new global wave climate projection studies \r are consistent with those presented in IPCC AR5. Mentaschi et  al. \r (2017) find up to a 30% increase in 100-year return level wave \r energy flux (the rate of transfer of wave energy) for the majority \r of coastal areas in the southern temperate zone, and a projected \r decrease in wave energy flux for most NH coastal areas at the end of \r the century in wave model simulations forced by six CMIP5 RCP8.5 \r simulations. The most significant long-term trends in extreme wave \r energy flux are explained by their relationship to modelled climate \r indices (Arctic Oscillation, ENSO and NAO). Wang et  al. (2014b) \r assessed the climate change signal and uncertainty in a 20-member \r ensemble of wave height simulations, and found model uncertainty \r (inter-model variability) is significant globally, being about 10 times \r as large as the variability between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. \r [...]"


id: 899acbda0384566c2d218010cf34af83
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content:
"[...] In a study focussing on the western north Pacific wave climate, \r Shimura et al. (2015) associate projected regions of future change \r in wave climate with spatial variation of SSTs in the tropical Pacific \r Ocean. A review of 91 published global and regional scale wind-wave \r climate projection studies found a consensus on a projected increase \r in significant wave height over the Southern Ocean, tropical eastern \r Pacific (high confidence) and Baltic Sea (medium confidence), and \r decrease over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. They found \r little agreement between studies of projected changes over the \r Atlantic Ocean, southern Indian and eastern North Pacific Ocean and \r no regional agreement of projected changes to extreme wave height. \r It was noted that few studies focussed on wave direction change, \r which is important for shoreline response (Morim et al. 2018)."


id: 5237fc7ba6e9fcf638f10d2d52b05954
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11738
content:
"AR5 also concluded that there is medium confidence that mean \r significant wave height has increased in the North Atlantic north of \r 45oN based on ship observations and reanalysis-forced wave model \r hindcasts. ESL events have increased since 1970, mainly due to a rise \r in mean sea levels (MSLs) over this period (Rhein et al. 2013). There \r is medium confidence that mid-latitude jets will move 1-2 degrees \r further poleward by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5 in both \r hemispheres with weaker shifts in the NH. In the SH during austral \r summer, the poleward movement of the mid-latitude westerlies under \r climate change is projected to be partially offset by stratospheric \r ozone recovery. There is low confidence in projections of NH storm \r tracks particularly in the North Atlantic. Tropical expansion is likely\r to continue causing wider tropical regions and poleward movement \r of the subtropical dry zones (Collins et al. 2013). In the SH, it is likely\r [...]"


id: b287669c514598932af384b9708f9c6a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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content:
"[...] that enhanced wind speeds will cause an increase in annual mean \r significant wave heights. Wave swells generated in the Southern \r Ocean may also affect wave heights, periods and directions in \r adjacent ocean basins. The projected reduction in sea ice extent in \r the Arctic Ocean (Holland et al. 2006) will increase wave heights and \r wave season length (Church et al. 2013)."


id: 51c5dedf18259c6b1aa54c8621e82fcf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11672
content:
"Significant developments have taken place since the AR5 to model \r storm surges and tides at the global scale. An unstructured global \r hydrodynamic modelling system has been developed with maximum \r coastal resolution of 5 km (Verlaan et al. 2015) and used to develop \r a global climatology of ESLs due to the combination of storm surge and \r tide (Muis et al. 2016). A global modelling study finds that under SLR \r of 0.5-10 m, changes to astronomical tidal mean high water exceed \r the imposed SLR by 10% or more at around 10% of coastal cities \r when coastlines are held fixed. When coastal recession is permitted \r a reduction in tidal range occurs due to changes in the period of \r oscillation of the basin under the changed coastline morphology \r (Pickering et  al. 2017). A recent study on global probabilistic \r projections of ESLs considering MSL, tides, wind-waves and storm \r surges shows that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the global average \r [...]"


id: f73b0b5e46bd117053be644ef1aa0df4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 40874
content:
"[...] 100-year ESL is very likely to increase by 34-76 cm and 58-172 cm, \r respectively between 2000-2100 (Vousdoukas et al. 2018). Despite \r the advancements in global tide and surge modelling, using CMIP \r GCM multi-model ensembles to examine the effects of future "


id: 581541ed33f5a1127b951e42105517ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12751
content:
"of +1 cm/year in the Southern Ocean and +0.8 cm/year in the North \r Atlantic ocean (medium confidence). Sea ice loss in the Arctic has \r also increased wave heights over the period 1992-2014 (medium \r confidence). Global wave power has increased over the last six decades \r with differences across oceans related to long-term correlations with \r SST (low confidence). Future projections indicate an increase of the \r mean significant wave height across the Southern Ocean and tropical \r eastern Pacific (high confidence) and Baltic Sea (medium confidence) \r and decrease over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea under \r RCP8.5 (high confidence). Extreme waves are projected to increase in the \r Southern Ocean and decrease in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean \r Sea under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (high confidence). There is still limited \r knowledge on projected wave period and direction. For coastal ESLs, \r new studies at the regional to global scale have generally had a greater \r [...]"


id: 4d06438a93d0b6c377d894924f85bdcb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10821
content:
"[...] focus on multiple contributing factors such as waves, tides, storm \r surges and SLR. At the global scale, probabilistic projections of extreme \r sea levels considering these factors projects the global average 100-\r year ESL is very likely to increase by 34-76 cm and 58-172 cm, under \r RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively between 2000-2100."


id: 80f7df5111b642e1da9145a52be9effc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19827
content:
"The role of austral winter swell waves on ESL have been investigated \r in the Gulf of Guinea (Melet et  al. 2016) and the Maldives \r (Wadey et al. 2017). Multivariate statistical analysis and probabilistic \r modelling is used to show that flood risk in the northern Gulf of \r Mexico is higher than determined from short observational records \r (Wahl et  al. 2016). In Australia, changes in ESLs were modelled \r using four CMIP5 RCP8.5 simulations (Colberg et  al. 2019). On \r the southern mainland coast, the southward movement of the \r subtropical ridge in the climate models led to small reductions (up \r to 0.4 m) in the modelled 20-year (5% probability of occurring \r in a year) storm surge. Over the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north, \r changes were largest and positive during austral summer in two \r out of the four models in response to a possible eastward shift in \r the northwest monsoon. Synthetic cyclone modelling was used to \r [...]"


id: d715a47dc4f1b498ad6698380b72275f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35147
content:
"[...] evaluate probabilities, interannual variability and future changes of \r extreme water levels from tides and TC-induced storm surge (storm \r tide) along the coastlines of Fiji (McInnes et  al. 2014) and Samoa \r (McInnes et al. 2016). Higher resolution modelling for Apia, Samoa \r incorporating waves highlights that although SLR reduces wave \r setup and wind setup by 10-20%, during storm surges it increases \r wave energy reaching the shore by up to 200% (Hoeke et al. 2015)."


id: 82fe9c0ac371ce8014d879a7351b55d3
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20172
content:
"increase, investigations into the economic impact of past cyclone \r events is less common, as these are much more difficult to identify. \r Examples of such work include Strobl (2012) on hurricane impacts \r in the Caribbean, Haque and Jahan (2016) on TC Sidr in Bangladesh, \r Jakobsen (2012) on Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua, and Taupo and \r Noy (2017) on TC Pam in Tuvalu. The relation between changes in \r TCs and property losses is complex, and there are indications that \r wind shear changes may have larger impact than changes in global \r temperatures (Wang and Toumi, 2016). With regard to loss of life, \r total fatalities and mortality from cyclone-related coastal flooding is \r globally declining, probably as a result of improved forecasting and \r evacuation, although in some low-income countries mortality is still \r high (Paul, 2009; Lumbroso et al. 2017; Bouwer and Jonkman, 2018). \r A global analysis finds that despite adaptation efforts, further SLR \r [...]"


id: 910bd58d807a4b4d665eae15a6190397
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22719
content:
"[...] could increase storm surge mortality in many parts of the developing \r world (Lloyd et al. 2016). "


id: ea1c39f220a4d5dcc16e890aba104c8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38539
content:
"After the storms, retreat or rebuild options exist. Rebuilding options \r can depend on whether insurance is still affordable after the event. \r Buyout programs, a form of 'managed retreat' whereby government \r agencies pay people affected by extreme weather events to relocate \r to safer areas, gained traction in recent years as a potential solution \r to reduce exposure to changing storm surge and flood risk. The \r decision to  retreat or rebuild in situ depends, at least partially, on \r how communities have recovered in the past and therefore on the \r perceived success of a future recovery (Binder, 2014). However, \r political and jurisdictional conflicts between local, regional, and \r national government over land management responsibilities, lack \r of coordinated nation-wide adaptation plans, and clashes between \r individual and community needs have led to some unpopular buyout \r programs after Hurricane Sandy (Boet-Whitaker, 2017). Relocation \r [...]"


id: 819f267ecdc803e3911e61d856b74167
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19935
content:
"[...] (i.e., managed retreat) is often very controversial, can incur significant \r political risk even when it is in principle voluntary (Gibbs et al. 2016), \r and is rarely implemented with much success at larger scales (Beine \r and Parsons, 2015; Hino et al. 2017). In addition, managed retreats are \r often fraught with legal, distributional and human rights issues, as seen \r in the case of resettlements after Typhoon Haiyan (Thomas, 2015; see \r also Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1), and extend to loss of cultural \r heritage and indigenous qualities in the case of small island states. "


id: 69414f8b2e02a2ead99644fad3964513
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15783
content:
"MHWs are periods of extremely high ocean temperatures that persist \r for days to months, can extend up to thousands of kilometres and \r can penetrate multiple hundreds of metres into the deep ocean \r (see SROCC Glossary; Hobday et  al. 2016a; Scannell et  al. 2016; \r Benthuysen et al. 2018). A MHW is an event at a particular place and \r time of the year that is rare and predominately, but not exclusively, \r defined with a relative threshold; that is, an event rarer than 90th \r or 99th percentile of a probability density function. By definition, \r the characteristics of what is called a MHW may therefore vary \r from place to place in an absolute sense. Different metrics are used \r to quantify changes in MHW characteristics, such as frequency, \r duration, intensity, spatial extent and severity. To monitor and \r predict coral bleaching risk, the metric degree heating week (DHW; \r e.g., Eakin et al. 2010) is often used, which combines the effect of \r [...]"


id: e8a84b17b07ad09dbf769ccddea7a05f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38276
content:
"The upper ocean temperature has significantly increased in most \r regions over the last few decades, with anthropogenic forcing very \r likely being the main driver (Bindoff et al. 2013). Concurrent with the \r long-term increase in upper ocean temperatures, MHWs have become \r more frequent, extensive and intense (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; \r Oliver et al. 2018a; Smale et al. 2019). Analysis of satellite daily SST data \r reveal that the number of MHW days exceeding the 99th percentile, \r calculated over the 1982-2016 period, has doubled globally between \r 1982 and 2016, from about 2.5 heatwave days yr-1 to 5 heatwave \r days yr-1 (Frolicher et al. 2018; Oliver et al. 2018a). At the same time, \r the maximum intensity of MHWs has increased by 0.15oC and the \r spatial extent by 66% (Frolicher et  al. 2018). Using a classification \r system to separate MHWs into categories (I-IV, depending on the level \r to which SSTs exceed local averages), Hobday et al. (2018) show that \r [...]"


id: aade9558c0b9e7ebeae58136eaa3edf1
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27289
content:
"[...] the occurrence of MHWs has increased for all categories over the past \r 35 years with the largest increase (24%) in strong (Category II) MHW \r events. In 2016, about a quarter of the surface ocean experienced either \r the longest or most intense MHW (Hobday et al. 2016a; Figure 6.3b). "


id: c084418633052736c5714efac366c5d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31168
content:
"The dominant ocean and/or atmospheric processes leading to the \r buildup, persistence and decay of MHWs vary greatly among the \r individual MHWs and depend on the location and time of occurrence. \r One of the most important global driver of MHWs are El Nino events \r (Oliver et al. 2018a). During El Nino events, the SST, in particular of \r the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the Indian Ocean, are \r anomalously warm (see Section 6.5). MHWs may also be associated \r with other large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the Pacific \r Decadal Oscillation (PDO), AMO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North \r Pacific Oscillation and NAO, which modulate ocean temperatures at \r the regional scale (Benthuysen et al. 2014; Bond et al. 2015; Chen et al. \r 2015b; Di Lorenzo and Mantua, 2016). These modes can change the \r strength, direction and location of ocean currents that build up areas \r of extreme warm waters, or they can change the air-sea heat flux, \r [...]"


id: 713faca60b97a9307e4ab6c081f019a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 17183
content:
"Figure 6.3 | Examples of recent marine heatwaves (MHWs) and their observed impacts. (a) Examples of documented MHWs over the last two decades and their impacts \r on natural, physical and socioeconomic systems. The colour map shows the maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly during the MHW using the National Oceanic \r and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) daily Optimum Interpolation SST dataset (Reynolds et al. 2007; Banzon et al. 2016). A MHW is defined here as a set of spatially \r and temporally coherent grid points exceeding the 99th percentile. The 99th percentile is calculated over the 1982-2011 reference period after de-seasonalising the data. \r Red shading of the boxes indicates if the likelihood of MHW occurrence has increased due to anthropogenic climate change, and symbols denote observed impacts on \r physical systems over land, marine ecosystems, and socioeconomic and human systems. Figure is updated from Frolicher and Laufkotter (2018) and is not a complete \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] compilation of all documented MHWs. (b) The record warming years 2015 and 2016 and the global extent of mass bleaching of corals during these years. The colour \r map shows the Degree Heating Week (DHW) annual maximum over 2015 and 2016 from NOAA's Coral Reef Watch Daily Global 5 km Satellite Coral Bleaching Heat \r Stress Monitoring Product Suite v.3.1 (Liu et al. 2014a). The DHW describes how much heat has accumulated in an area over the past twelve weeks by adding up any \r temperatures that exceed 1oC above the maximum summertime mean (e.g., Eakin et al. 2010). Symbols show reef locations that are assessed in Hughes et al. (2018a) and \r indicate where severe bleaching affected more than 30% of corals (purple circles), moderate bleaching affected less than 30% of corals (blue circles), and no substantial \r bleaching was recorded (light blue circles). "


id: e7c291802284b030d101208db72049ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38083
content:
"In other words, the aforementioned studies show that such events \r could not have occurred without the temperature increase since \r 1850-1900. In addition, extreme SSTs in the northeast Pacific in 2014 \r have become about five times more likely with human-induced global \r warming (Wang et al. 2014a; Kam et al. 2015; Weller et al. 2015). The \r Tasman Sea 2015-2016 MHW was 330 times (for duration) and 6.8 \r times (for intensity) more likely with anthropogenic climate change \r than without (Oliver et al. 2017), and the northern Australia 2016 \r MHW was up to fifty times more likely due to anthropogenic climate \r change (Weller et  al. 2015; King  et  al. 2017; Lewis and Mallela, \r 2018; Newman et al. 2018; Oliver et al. 2018b). Also the risk of the \r Great Barrier Reef bleaching event in 2016 was increased due to \r anthropogenic climate change (King et al. 2017; Lewis and Mallela, \r 2018). Even though natural variability is still needed for the events \r [...]"


id: c1ef3bed9c48fcfa2c4a6d693b297980
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31420
content:
"[...] to occur, these studies show that most of the individual MHW events \r analysed so far have a clear human-induced signal. However, such \r attribution studies have not been undertaken for all major individual \r MHW events yet (e.g., five out of ten MHWs indicated in Figure 6.3a \r have not been assessed), and it is therefore still unknown for some of \r the observed individual MHW events if they have an anthropogenic \r signal or not (labelled as 'unknown' in Figure 6.3a)."


id: 96a7a7ed4090b6d0f0dbf5962116575d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23710
content:
"number of MHW days (Alexander et al. 2018; Frolicher et al. 2018). \r Smallest increases are projected for the Southern Ocean. In addition, \r MHW events in the Great Barrier Reef, such as the one associated with \r the bleaching in 2016, are projected to be at least twice as frequent \r under 2oC global warming than they are today (King et al. 2017). The \r magnitude of projected changes at the local scale is uncertain, partly \r due to issues of horizontal and vertical resolution of CMIP5-type Earth \r system models. Only a few studies have used higher resolution oceanic \r models (eddy-resolving) to assess the local-to-regional changes in \r MHW characteristics. For example, regional high-resolution coupled \r climate model simulations suggest that the Mediterranean Sea will \r experience at least one long lasting MHW every year by the end of \r the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario (Darmaraki et al. 2019), \r and eddy-resolving ocean model simulations project a further increase \r [...]"


id: 4ecde85b57eb455d50c3c3eef4997274
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11145
content:
"[...] in the likelihood of extreme temperature events in the Tasman Sea \r (Oliver et al. 2014; Oliver et al. 2015; Oliver et al. 2017). "


id: 16fd001658bcb015740df6a3d3406a45
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1264
content:
"A growing number of studies have reported that MHWs negatively \r affect corals and coral reefs through bleaching, disease, and mortality \r (see Chapter 5 for an extensive discussion on coral reefs and coral \r bleaching). The recent (2014-2017) high ocean temperatures in \r the tropics and subtropics triggered a pan-tropical episode of \r unprecedented mass bleaching of corals (100s of km2\r ), the third \r global-scale event after 1997-1998 and 2010 (Heron et  al. 2016; \r Eakin et al. 2017; Hughes et al. 2017b; Eakin et al. 2018; Hughes et al. \r 2018a). The heat stress during this event was sufficient to cause \r bleaching at 75% of global reefs (Hughes et al. 2018a; Figure 6.3b) \r and mortality at 30% (Eakin et  al. 2017), much more than any \r previously documented global bleaching event. In some locations, \r many reefs bleached extensively for the first time on record, and over \r half of the reefs bleached multiple times during the three year event. \r [...]"


id: 194ed250cf5962291d3a8f3b49ac4c3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1667
content:
"[...] However, there were distinct geographical variations in bleaching, \r mainly determined by the spatial pattern and magnitude of the MHW \r (Figure 6.3b). For example, bleaching was extensive and severe in the \r northern regions of the Great Barrier Reef, with 93% of the northern \r Australian Great Barrier Reef coral suffering bleaching in 2016, but \r impacts were moderate at the southern coral reefs of the Great \r Barrier Reef (Brainard et al. 2018; Stuart-Smith et al. 2018). "


id: f65124d9eec6b25dcab93b2da57d22ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40703
content:
"Apart from strong impacts on corals, recent MHWs have demonstrated \r their potential impacts on other marine ecosystems and ecosystems \r services (Ummenhofer and Meehl, 2017; Smale et  al. 2019). Two of \r the best studied MHWs with extensive ecological implications are the \r Western Australia 2011 MHW and the Northeast Pacific 2013-2015 \r MHW. The Western Australia 2011 MHW resulted in a regime shift of \r the temperate reef ecosystem (Wernberg et al. 2013; Wernberg et al. \r 2016). The abundance of the dominant habitat-forming seaweeds \r Scytohalia dorycara and Ecklonia radiata became significantly \r reduced and Ecklonia kelp forest was replaced by small turf-forming \r algae with wide ranging impacts on associated sessile invertebrates \r and demersal fish. The sea grass Amphibolis antarctica in Shark Bay \r underwent defoliation after the MHW (Fraser et al. 2014), and together \r with the loss of other sea grass species, these lead to releases of \r [...]"


id: ffe9a470b139c125cfaa50cffd621406
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42417
content:
"[...] 2-9 Tg  CO2 to the atmosphere during the subsequent three years \r after the MHW (Arias-Ortiz et al. 2018). In addition, coral bleaching \r and adverse impacts on invertebrate fisheries were documented \r (Depczynski et  al. 2013; Caputi et  al. 2016). The Northeast Pacific \r 2013-2015 MHW also caused extensive alterations to open ocean and \r coastal ecosystems (Cavole et  al. 2016). Impacts included increased \r mortality events of sea birds (Jones et al. 2018), salmon and marine \r mammals (Cavole  et  al.  2016), very low ocean primary productivity \r (Whitney, 2015; Jacox et al. 2016), an increase in warm water copepod \r species (Di Lorenzo and Mantua, 2016) and novel species compositions \r (Peterson et al. 2017). In addition, a coast wide bloom of the toxigenic \r diatom Pseudo-nitzschia resulted in the largest ever recorded outbreak \r of domoic acid along the North American west coast (McCabe et al. \r 2016). Domoic acid was detected in many marine mammals, such as \r [...]"


id: 13d9edeb76f12f36aa4d5d714ffe6943
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 706
content:
"[...] whales, dolphins, porpoises, seals and sea lions. The elevated toxins in \r commercially harvested fish and invertebrates resulted in prolonged \r and geographically extensive closure of razor clam and crab fisheries. \r Other MHWs also demonstrated the vulnerability of marine organisms \r and ecosystems to extremely high ocean temperatures. The Northwest \r Atlantic 2012 MHW strongly impacted coastal ecosystems by causing "


id: a069a6419d49ae376825584a99d34b8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25436
content:
"a northward movement of warm water species and local migrations \r of some species (e.g., lobsters) earlier in the season (Mills et al. 2013; \r Pershing et  al. 2015). The Mediterranean Sea 2003 MHW lead to \r mass mortalities of macro-invertebrate species (Garrabou et  al. \r 2009) and the Tasman Sea 2015-2016 MHW had impacts on \r sessile, sedentary and cultured species in the shallow, near-shore \r environment including outbreaks of disease in commercially viable \r species (Oliver et al. 2017). Vibrio outbreaks were also observed in \r the Baltic Sea in response to elevated SSTs (Baker-Austin et al. 2013). \r The Alaskan Sea 2016 MHW favoured some phytoplankton species, \r leading to harmful algal blooms, shellfish poisoning events and \r mortality events in seabirds (Walsh et al. 2018; see chapter 3 for more \r details). Also, lower than average size of multiple groundfish species \r were observed including Pollock, Pacific cod, and Chinook salmon \r [...]"


id: e524bc5501e378d1e549ae4fbab541ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37613
content:
"[...] (Zador and Siddon, 2016). The Yellow Sea/East China Sea 2016 MHW \r killed a large number of different marine organisms in coastal and bay \r areas around South Korea (Kim and Han, 2017) and the Southwest \r Atlantic 2017 MHW lead to toxic algal blooms (Manta et al. 2018). \r The Coastal Peruvian 2017 MHW affected anchovies, which showed \r decreased fat content and early spawning as a reproductive strategy \r (IMPARPE, 2017), a  behaviour usually seen during warm El  Nino \r conditions (Niquen and Bouchon, 2004). "


id: 478531665c593535bf61c4e4f77191e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9798
content:
"py\r MHWs can also lead to significant socioeconomic ramifications when \r affecting aquaculture or important fishery species, or when triggering \r heavy rain or drought events on land. The Northwest Atlantic 2012 \r MHW, for example, had major economic impacts on the US lobster \r industry in 2015 (Mills et al. 2013). The MHWs lead to changes in \r lobster fishing practices and harvest patterns, because the lobsters \r moved from the deep offshore waters into shallower coastal areas \r much earlier in the season than usual causing a rapid rise in lobster \r catch rates. Together with a supply chain bottleneck, the record \r catch outstripped market demand and contributed to a collapse in \r lobster prices (Mills et  al. 2013). Even though high catch volumes \r were reported, the price collapse threatened the economic viability of \r many US and Canadian lobster fisheries. Economic impacts through \r changes in fisheries were also reported during the Northeast Pacific \r [...]"


id: 3e50193470a6ab2b963fda1c4800d009
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8139
content:
"[...] 2013-2015 MHW and the Alaskan Sea 2016 MHW. The Northeast \r Pacific 2013-2015 MHW led to closing of both commercial and \r recreational fisheries resulting in millions of USD in losses among \r fishing industries (Cavole et al. 2016). In addition, the toxin produced \r by the harmful algal blooms can be transferred through the marine \r food web and humans who eat contaminated fish, shellfish or \r crustaceans (Berdalet et al. 2016; Du et al. 2016; McCabe et al. 2016). \r The ingestion of such contaminated seafood products, the inhalation \r of aerosolised toxins or the skin contact with toxin-contaminated \r water may cause toxicity in humans. Symptoms in human associated \r with the ingestion of the contaminated seafood range from mild \r gastrointestinal distress to seizures, coma, permanent short-term \r memory loss and death (Perl et  al. 1990). The ecological changes \r associated with the Alaskan Sea 2016 MHW impacted subsistence \r [...]"


id: 6284831097ef3d838558110ede721ea8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 14622
content:
"[...] and commercial activities. For example, ice-based harvesting of seals, \r crabs and fish in western Alaska was delayed due to the lack of \r winter sea ice. MHWs can also impact the socioeconomic and human \r system through changes to weather patterns. For example, heavy rain \r associated with the Coastal Peruvian 2017 MHW triggered numerous \r landslides and flooding, which resulted in a death toll of several \r hundred, and widespread damage to infrastructure and civil works \r (United Nations, 2017)."


id: 41fc5d6253d19c2a8012e9898056df99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8803
content:
"MHWs can impact weather patterns over land via teleconnections \r causing drought, heavy precipitation or heat wave events. For \r example, the Northeast Pacific 2013-2015 MHW and the associated \r persistent atmospheric high-pressure ridge prevented normal winter \r storms from reaching the West Coast of the US and may have \r contributed to the drought conditions across the entire West Coast \r (Seager et al. 2015; Di Lorenzo and Mantua, 2016). The Tasman Sea \r 2015-2016 MHW has increased the intensity of rainfall that caused \r flooding in northeast Tasmania in January 2016 (see Box 6.1) and \r the Coastal Peruvian 2017 MHW caused heavy rainfall and flooding \r on the west coast of tropical South America (ENFEN, 2017; Echevin \r et al. 2018; Garreaud, 2018; Takahashi et al. 2018). Similarly, MHWs \r in the Mediterranean Sea may have amplified heatwaves (Feudale \r and Shukla, 2007; Garcia-Herrera et al. 2010) and heavy precipitation \r [...]"


id: 93c3c6caf64daaa83753fdd8ef5beecc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 23205
content:
"[...] events over central Europe (Messmer et al. 2017), as well as trigger \r intense ETCs over the Mediterranean Sea (Gonzalez-Aleman et  al. \r 2019). Such physical changes induced by MHWs may then also affect \r ecosystems and human systems on land (Reimer et al. 2015). "


id: c81f58fbf50c68d8ac19bb4629162326
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32523
content:
"bleaching (Liu et  al. 2014a). These satellite-based products, along \r with NOAA Coral Reef Watch's four month coral bleaching outlook \r based on operational climate forecast models (Liu et  al. 2018), \r and coral disease outbreak risk (Heron et al. 2010) provide critical \r guidance to coral reef managers, scientists, and other stakeholders \r (Tommasi et al. 2017b; Eakin et al. 2018). These products are also \r used to implement proactive bleaching response plans (Rosinski et al. \r 2017), brief stakeholders, and allocate monitoring resources in \r advance of bleaching events, such as the 2014-2017 global coral \r bleaching event (Eakin et  al. 2017). For example, Thailand closed \r ten reefs for diving in advance of the bleaching peak in 2016, while \r Hawaii immediately began preparation of resources both to monitor \r the 2015 bleaching and to place specimens of rare corals in climate \r controlled, onshore nurseries in response to these forecast systems \r [...]"


id: 8823446ac3450abf3c1b6cdd454dfc63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21101
content:
"[...] (Tommasi et al. 2017b). New measurement techniques, such as Argo \r and deep Argo floats, may help to further develop prediction systems \r for subsurface MHWs, but such systems are not yet in place."


id: fbe6c1f667e191cc3cdb5f6e49c3b5bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41681
content:
"SST forecasts ranging from seasonal to decadal (5-10 years) have \r also been used or are planned to be used as early warning systems \r for multiple other ecosystems and fisheries in addition to coral \r reefs, including aquaculture, lobster, sardine, and tuna fisheries \r (Hobday  et  al. 2016b; Payne et  al. 2017; Tommasi et  al. 2017b). \r For example, seasonal forecasts of SST around Tasmania may help \r farm managers of salmon aquaculture to prepare and respond to \r upcoming MHWs by changing stocking densities, varying feed mixes, \r transferring fish to different locations in the farming region and \r implementing disease management (Spillman and Hobday, 2014; \r Hobday et al. 2016b). Skilful multi-annual to decadal SST predictions \r may also inform and improve decisions about spatial and industrial \r planning, as well as the management of various extractive sectors \r such as the adjustments to quotas for internationally shared fish \r [...]"


id: a1f48ca266d71bb3df683711baed8f50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25730
content:
"[...] stocks (Tommasi et al. 2017a). It has been shown that global climate \r forecasts have significant skill in predicting the occurrence of above \r average warm or cold SST events at decadal timescales in coastal \r areas (Tommasi et al. 2017a), but barriers to their widespread usage \r in fishery and aquaculture industry still exist (Tommasi et al. 2017b). "


id: 722936cb3a119afafa2a25fb7d1491e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17328
content:
"Palaeo-ENSO studies suggest that ENSO was highly variable throughout \r the Holocene, with no evidence for a systematic trend in ENSO variance \r (Cobb et al. 2013) but with some indication that the ENSO variance \r over 1979-2009 has been much larger than that over 1590-1880 \r (McGregor et al. 2013). Palaeo-ENSO reconstruction for the past eight \r centuries suggests that central Pacific ENSO activity has increased \r between the last two decades (1980-2015; Liu et  al. 2017b), with \r an increasing number of central Pacific El Nino events compared to \r east Pacific El Nino events (Freund et al. 2019). Further proxy evidence \r exists for changes in the mean state of the equatorial Pacific in the last \r 2000 years (Rustic et al. 2015; Henke et al. 2017). Simulations using \r an Earth System Model indicate significantly higher ENSO variance \r during 1645-1715 than during the 21st century warm period, though \r it is unclear whether these simulated changes are realistic (Keller et al. \r [...]"


id: b3dc7da4d0f41e162caf806b7daaa566
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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vector_id: 28885
content:
"[...] 2015). For the 20th century, the frequency and intensity of El Nino events \r were high during 1951-2000, in comparison with the 1901-1950 \r period (Lee and McPhaden, 2010; Kim et al. 2014b; Roxy et al. 2014). \r Current instrumental observational records are not long enough and \r the quality of data before 1950 is limited, to assert these changes with \r high confidence (Wittenberg, 2009; Stevenson et al. 2010) though the \r palaeo records mentioned here signal the emergence of a statistically \r significant increase in ENSO variance in recent decades."


id: aecafcb31d93ce88bd77e539f8aac3a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27998
content:
"RCP8.5 (Cai et al. 2015), but indicate no further significant changes \r after global mean temperatures have stabilised (Wang et al. 2017). \r Particularly concerning is that swings from extreme El Nino to \r extreme La Nina (opposite of extreme El Nino) have been projected \r to occur more frequently under greenhouse warming (Cai et al. 2015). \r The increasing ratio of Central Pacific El Nino events to East Pacific \r El Nino events is projected to continue, under increasing emissions \r (Freund et al. 2019). Further, CMIP5 models indicate that the risk of \r major rainfall disruptions has already increased for countries where \r the rainfall variability is linked to ENSO variability. This risk will remain \r elevated for the entire 21st century, even if substantial reductions in \r global GHG emissions are made (medium confidence). The increase \r in disruption risk is caused by anthropogenic warming that drives an \r increase in the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events and also \r [...]"


id: 1afcb617988921d0d4532529ac48331b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1946
content:
"[...] by changes in background SST patterns (Power et al. 2013; Chung \r et al. 2014; Huang and Xie, 2015). While many of these studies have \r adopted the precipitation view of an extreme El Nino, studies also \r indicate an increase in SST variability for events with their main SST \r anomalies in the east Pacific (Cai et al. 2018). Also, a role of cross\u0002equatorial winds has been identified (Hu and Fedorov, 2018)."


id: 5c01261acc2be754765f30b79c328295
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13447
content:
"The dynamic processes related to the projected changes in IOD under \r global warming have a large inter-model spread (Cai et al. 2013). The \r frequency of extreme positive IOD events are projected to increase \r by almost a factor of three, from a one-in-seventeen-year event in \r the 20th century to a one-in-six-year event in the 21st century (low \r confidence). The bias in the CMIP5 models and internal variability \r could enlarge the projected increase in the extreme positive IOD \r events (Li et al. 2016a; Hui and Zheng, 2018). The increase in IOD \r events is not linked to the change in the frequency of El Nino \r events but instead to mean state change--with weakening of \r both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in \r association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern \r equatorial Indian Ocean (Cai et al. 2014b). A combination of extreme \r ENSO and IOD events has led to a northward shift in the Intertropical \r [...]"


id: ce583fe029b6b275789fa55fe137533a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33643
content:
"[...] Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during 1979-2015, which is expected to \r increase further in the future (Freitas et al. 2017)."


id: b384a48759a6bcf5ba1f9e4b1b415b16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28825
content:
"Increasing frequency of extreme ENSO and IOD events have the \r potential to have widespread impacts on natural and human systems \r in many parts of the globe. Though the occurrence of the extreme \r 2015-2016 El Nino has produced a large body of literature, it is still not \r clear how climate change may have altered such an impact, nor how \r such impacts might change in the future with increasing frequency \r of extreme ENSO events. We highlight here some studies that have \r attempted to assess the joint impact of mean change and variability. \r In addition to observed high variability of rainfall, severe weather \r events and impacts on TCs activity (Yonekura and Hall, 2014; Zhang \r and Guan, 2014; Wang and Liu, 2016; Zhan, 2017), extreme El Nino \r events have substantial impacts on natural systems which include \r those on marine ecosystems (Sanseverino et  al. 2016; Mogollon \r and Calil, 2017; Ohman et  al. 2017), such as severe and repeated \r [...]"


id: 626d118920988a5b10b1c9c4fe95fee1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14597
content:
"[...] bleaching of corals (Hughes et al. 2017a; Hughes et al. 2017b; Eakin \r et al. 2018), and glacial growth and retreat (Thompson et al. 2017). \r On the other hand, impacts on human, including managed systems \r are: increased incidences of forest fires (Christidis et al. 2018b; Tett \r et al. 2018), degraded air quality (Koplitz et al. 2015; Chang et al. \r 2016; Zhai et al. 2016) such as the dense haze over most parts of \r Indonesia and the neighboring countries in Southeast Asia as a result \r of prolonged Indonesian wildfires, thus imposing adverse impacts on \r public health in the affected areas (Koplitz et al. 2015; WMO, 2016), \r decreased agricultural yields in many parts of the globe (e.g., in most \r of the Pacific Islands countries, Thailand, eastern and southern Africa \r and others which resulted food insecurity, particularly in eastern and "


id: f778f5d7178b1d4979bce59fe55fe108
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40915
content:
"Studies on projections of changes in ENSO impacts or teleconnections \r are rather limited. Nevertheless, Power and Delage (2018) provide \r a  multi-model assessment of CMIP5 models and their simulated \r changes in the precipitation response to El Nino in the future \r (Figure  6.6). They identify different combinations of changes that \r might further impact natural and human systems. El Nino causes \r either positive or negative precipitation anomalies in diverse \r regions of the globe. Dry El Nino teleconnection anomalies may be \r further strengthened by, either mean climate drying in the region \r (Amazon, Central America and Australia in June to August (JJA)), or \r a strengthening of the El Nino dry teleconnection, or both. Conversely, \r wet El Nino teleconnections can be further strengthened by either \r increases in mean precipitation (East Africa and southeastern South \r America in December to February (DJF)) or a strengthening of the \r [...]"


id: aa6366d8b30d4b31674735ae4219881e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27203
content:
"[...] El  Nino wet teleconnection (southeastern South America in JJA), \r or both (Tibetan Plateau, DJF). However, a present day dry El Nino \r response may be dampened by a wet mean response (South, East \r and Southeast Asia in JJA) or a wet present day El Nino response may \r be weakened by a dry mean change (Southern Europe/Mediterranean "


id: e9a7ff5b072d467d84a141cb5559780d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38460
content:
"Risk management of ENSO events has focussed on two main aspects: \r better prediction and early warning systems, and better mechanisms for \r reducing risks to agriculture, infrastructure, fisheries and aquaculture, \r wildfire and flood management. Extreme ENSO events are rare, with \r three such events since 1950 and they are difficult to predict due to the \r different drivers influencing them (Puy et al. 2017). The impacts of ENSO \r events also vary between events and between the different regions \r affected (Murphy et al. 2014; Fasullo et al. 2018; Power and Delage, \r 2018) however, there is limited literature on the change in the impacts \r of extreme ENSO compared to other ENSO events. In addition, there are \r also no specific risk management and adaptation strategies for human \r and natural systems for more extreme events other than what is in \r place for ENSO events (see also Chapter 4, Section 4.4 for the response \r [...]"


id: 57f73983d37752cf797218935f14b80d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12737
content:
"[...] to sea level change, an observed impact of ENSO). A first step in risk \r management and adaptation is thus to better understand the impacts \r these events have and to identify conditions that herald such extreme \r events that could be used to better predict extreme ENSO events. "


id: 680cdb1b43389c023c751cd910bfab34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15575
content:
"Along with extreme El Nino events, abrupt warming in the Indian \r Ocean and extreme IOD events have largely altered the Asian \r and African monsoon, impacting the food and water security over \r these regions. As a response to rising global SSTs and partially \r due to extreme El Nino events, the NH summer monsoon showed \r substantial intensification during 1979-2011, with an increase in \r rainfall by 9.5% per degree Celsius of global warming (Wang et al. \r 2013). However, the Indian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall \r exhibits a statistically significant weakening since the 1950s. This \r weakening has been hypothesised to be a response to the Indian \r Ocean basin-wide warming (Mishra et  al. 2012; Roxy et  al. 2015) \r and also to increased aerosol emissions (Guo et  al. 2016) and \r changes in land use (Paul et al. 2016). Warming in the north Indian \r Ocean has resulted in increasing fluctuations in the southwest \r [...]"


id: c486b1bb0db68ad7c02592818494bcb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31883
content:
"[...] monsoon winds and a three-fold increase in extreme rainfall events \r across central India (Roxy et al. 2017). The frequency and duration \r of heatwaves have increased over the Indian subcontinent, and \r these events are associated with the Indian Ocean basin-wide \r warming and frequent El Ninos (Rohini et al. 2016). In April 2016, \r as a response to the extreme El Nino, Southeast Asia experienced \r surface air temperatures that surpassed national records, increased \r energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and resulted in severe \r human discomfort (Thirumalai et  al. 2017). A strong negative IOD \r event in 2016 led to large climate impact on East African rainfall, \r with some regions recording below 50% of normal rainfall, leading \r to devastating drought, food insecurity and unsafe drinking water for \r over 15 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya."


id: d3be1099950f2a8d14151d42e9ace0ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34598
content:
"Monitoring and forecasting are the most developed ways to manage \r extreme ENSOs. Several systems are already in place for monitoring \r and predicting seasonal climate variability and ENSO occurrence. \r However, the sustainability of the observing system is challenging \r and currently the Tropical Pacific Observing System 2020 (TPOS 2020) \r has the task of redesigning such a system, with ENSO prediction as \r one of its main objectives. These systems could be further elaborated \r to include extreme ENSO events. Westerly wind events in the Western \r Tropical Pacific, (Lengaigne et al. 2004; Chen et al. 2015a; Fedorov \r et al. 2015) strong easterly wind events in the tropical Pacific (Hu and \r Fedorov, 2016; Puy et al. 2017), nonlinear interaction between air\u0002sea fluxes and atmospheric deep convection (Bellenger et al. 2014; \r Takahashi and Dewitte, 2016) and advection of mean temperature \r by anomalous eastward zonal currents (Kim and Cai, 2014) are \r [...]"


id: c466773b13c80d5ec39fc8f2334a07eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31853
content:
"[...] some of the factors that play an important role in the evolution of \r extreme ENSO events, which can be considered while improving the \r monitoring and forecasting system. "


id: 1caed6b1466bcbf71d5256576f579eee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2222
content:
"In the last two decades, total water transport from the Pacific to \r the Indian Ocean and the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean has \r increased (high confidence). Increased ITF has been attributed to \r Pacific cooling and basin-wide warming in the Indian Ocean. The ITF \r annual average is 15 x 106\r  m3 s-1 (Susanto et al. 2012). ITF varies \r from intraseasonal to decadal time scales. On seasonal time scale, \r South China Sea Throughflow controls freshwater flux and modulates \r the main ITF (Fang et al. 2010; Susanto et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2019; \r Wang et al. 2019; Wei et al. 2019). During the extreme El Nino of \r 1997-1998, the ITF transport was reduced to 9.2 x 106\r   m3 s-1. \r Based on observations and proxy records from satellite altimetry \r and gravimetry, in the last two decades, 1992-2012, ITF has been \r stronger (Sprintall and Revelard, 2014; Liu et al. 2015a; Susanto and \r Song, 2015), which translates to an increase in ocean heat-flux into \r [...]"


id: 6a3bdeaf5c4327c9bd20b232cd5a96d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15969
content:
"[...] the Indian Ocean (Lee et  al. 2015b). Exchanges of heat and fresh \r water between ocean basins are important at the global scale \r (Flato et al. 2013). ITF may have played a key role in the slowdown of \r the Pacific SST warming during 1998-2013, and the rapid warming \r in the surface and subsurface Indian Ocean during this period \r (Section 6.5.1.2; Makarim et al. 2019), by transferring warm water \r from the western Pacific into the Indian Ocean (Lee et  al. 2015b; \r Dong and McPhaden, 2018). "


id: 24c88ffae508dead75891d953adba135
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3668
content:
"In principle, it is easier to transfer the financial risk associated with \r extreme ENSO events through, for example, insurance products or \r other risk transfer instruments such as Catastrophe Bonds, than \r for more moderate events. An accurate prediction system is not \r required, but the measurement of these events, and quantification \r of likely impacts is required. As in other types of insurance \r systems, this can be done through, for example, calculations of \r average annual losses associated with extreme ENSO, and the \r design of appropriate financial instruments. Examples of research \r that can support the design of risk transfer instruments include \r Anderson et al. (2018) and Gelcer et al. (2018) for specific crops \r yields, and Aguilera et al. (2018) and Broad et al. (2002) for specific \r fisheries. Several risk transfer instruments have been implemented \r to deal with ENSO impacts, including parametric insurance \r [...]"


id: 273b6239066f6bba6212fdc1ddd23232
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4068
content:
"[...] based on SSTs for heavy rainfall damages, and another scheme \r for agricultural damages, both in Peru. Other examples include \r forecast-based financial aid (Red Cross Climate Centre, 2016). \r More broadly, other forms of risk management and governance can \r be designed with better information about the likely impacts of \r extreme ENSO events (e.g., Vignola et al. 2018)."


id: 3584f343fa96d8187325f9f8ded9bba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6669
content:
"Under 1.5oC warming both El Nino and La Nina frequencies may \r increase (see Section 6.5) and hence ITF variability may also increase. \r ITF is also influenced by the IOD events, with an increase in transport \r during a positive IOD and vice-versa during a negative IOD event \r (Potemra and Schneider, 2007; Pujiana et  al. 2019). Positive IODs \r are projected to increase threefold in the 21st century as a response \r to changes in the mean state rather than changes in the El Nino \r frequency (Section 6.5.1.2; Cai et  al. 2014b) and this may have \r an impact on the ITF, additional to the changes due to increasing \r extreme ENSO events. In response to greenhouse warming, climate \r models predict that on interannual time scale, it is likely that the mean \r ITF may decrease due to wind variability (Sen Gupta et  al.  2016), \r but recent observation trend tends to strengthen which has led to \r speculations about the fidelity of the current climate models (Chung \r [...]"


id: 3ef4e8bd17c2ae3908c522c7cbec1cc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8264
content:
"[...] et al. 2019). On multidecadal and centennial timescales, it is likely\r that mean ITF decreases which is not associated with wind variability \r but due to reduction of net deep ocean upwelling in the tropical \r South Pacific (Sen Gupta et  al. 2016; Feng et  al. 2017; Feng et  al. \r 2018). Due to a lack of long-term sustained ITF observations, their \r impacts on Indo-Pacific climate varibility, biogeochemisty, ecosystem \r as well as society are not fully understood."


id: 6b39a69d7bd0e74ebc07ff0e7398a146
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:32
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16161
content:
"between reanalysis products going back in time.) Moreover, it is very \r unusual when model simulations are used as an estimate of internal \r climate variability (Figure 6.7; England et al. 2014; Kociuba and Power, \r 2015). The slowdown in global surface warming is dominated by the \r cooling in the Pacific SSTs, which is associated with a strengthening \r of the Pacific trade winds (Kosaka and Xie, 2013). This pattern leads \r to cooling over land and possibly to additional heat uptake by the \r ocean, although recent studies suggest that ocean heat uptake \r may even slow down during surface warming slowdown periods \r (Xie  et  al. 2016; von Kanel et  al. 2017). The intensification of the \r Pacific trade winds has been related to inter-ocean basin SST trends, \r with rapid warming in the Indian (see section 6.5.1.2) and Atlantic \r Oceans both hypothesised as drivers (Kucharski et al. 2011; Luo et al. \r 2012; McGregor et al. 2014; Zhang and Karnauskas, 2017). While the \r [...]"


