# document

id: 3bb8409d72c2eee13c427af460bf313d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"[...] (Section  1.3.4; Mach et  al., 2017). The Glossary [Annex II] provides \r definitions for terms and concepts used across the report."


id: 5e7bfa7e01fa5615ecfd664ff06bf957
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"With a 2019 total population of over 494 million people (USA 329 million, \r Mexico 128 million and Canada 37 million), North America comprises \r 6.4% of the global population. Relative to other countries, North \r American countries have low population densities per square kilometre \r (Mexico 64 people, USA 35 people and Canada 4 people) (United \r Nations, 2019). Population projections indicate a steady growth in the \r three countries, which will exert pressure on consumption and increase \r risks under climate change (United Nations, 2019). North America is \r also responsible for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) \r emissions. Since 1990, North American GHG emissions have increased \r by almost 18% (Ritchie and Roser, 2020), and in 2019 the region was \r responsible for 5.9 MtCO2 emissions worldwide (Friedlingstein et  al., \r 2020). In terms of annual CO2 emissions per capita, in 2019 Canada \r had 15 metric tons of CO2 per person (tCO2 per person), the USA had \r [...]"


id: 9d289c63a4f3c99405e2503adfbbaf75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Climate changes directly related to increasing mean and extreme \r temperature, including reduced snowpack, sea and lake ice and glacier \r extent, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), can be attributed to human \r activity and are affecting most of North America (high confidence). \r Upward trends in annual mean temperature across North America \r since 1960 are widespread (Gutierrez et al., 2021a) but non-uniform \r (Figure 14.2A). Pronounced polar amplification of warming is observed \r in high latitudes (Figure 14.2A), particularly in winter (Gutierrez et al., \r 2021a; Vose et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2019a). As average temperature \r rises, extreme high temperature records across North America are being \r set more frequently than extreme cold records (Meehl et  al., 2016) \r and the probability of cold extreme events is reduced (WGI Chapter \r 11 [Seneviratne et al., 2021]). Trends in daily maximum and minimum \r temperature are significant in high latitudes (US-AK, CA-NW, CA-NE). \r [...]"


id: 9938771785ea2870eb79cb3220e222a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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content:
"[...] Summer daily maximum temperature is increasing in southwest desert \r regions (US-SW, MX-NW) (Martinez-Austria et  al., 2016; Martinez\u0002Austria and Bandala, 2017; Navarro-Estupinan et al., 2018)."


id: 99bfdce345916a403dd4cbd236a9ea5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24275
content:
"Annual precipitation has increased in recent decades in northern and \r eastern areas (CA-PR, CA-QU, US-NP, US-SP, US-MW, US-NE, US-AK) \r (high confidence), and has decreased across the western part of the \r continent (CA-BC, US-SW, US-NW, MX-NW) (medium confidence), \r with considerable spatial variability within these regions (Zhang \r et  al., 2019a; Gutierrez et  al., 2021a). Elsewhere across North \r America there is limited evidence and low agreement on detection \r of observed trends in total precipitation and river flood hazards. The \r intensity and frequency of 1-day heavy precipitation events have \r very likely2\r  increased since the mid-20th Century across most of \r the USA (US-NP, US-MW, US-NE, but not in US-SE) and in Mexico, \r but no detectable trend is reported in Canada (Seneviratne et  al., \r 2021; Zhang et al., 2019a). Recent flooding events along the mid\u0002latitude Pacific Coast have been attributed to increasingly intense \r [...]"


id: 942766b918cecacf31ad3a88c0f5cf3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] atmospheric river events ( Douville et  al., 2021; Gershunov et  al., \r 2019; Vano et  al., 2019), but there is low confidence in detecting \r trends in atmospheric river activity."


id: 621c8b211d32077ed5362f73513ff3b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"most notably in the USA (high confidence) (van der Linden et  al., \r 2015; Cook and Lewandowsky, 2016; Bolsen and Druckman, 2018; \r Chinn et  al., 2020) but with similar patterns in Canada (medium \r confidence) (Lachapelle et al., 2012; Kevins and Soroka, 2018). Vocal \r groups can affect public discourse and weaken public support for \r climate mitigation and adaptation policies (medium confidence) \r (Aklin and Urpelainen, 2014; Lewandowsky et  al., 2019). Vested \r economic and political interests have organised and financed \r misinformation and 'contrarian' climate-change communication \r (Brulle, 2014; Farrell, 2016a; Farrell, 2016b; Supran and Oreskes, 2017; \r Bolsen and Druckman, 2018; Brulle, 2018). Traditional media-print \r and broadcast-frame and transmit climate-change information and \r play a crucial role in shaping public perceptions, understanding and \r willingness to act (Happer and Philo, 2013; Schmidt et  al., 2013; \r [...]"


id: 4b69ba6e7de14225161336513019adb7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] Hmielowski et al., 2014; Bolsen and Shapiro, 2018; King et al., 2019; \r Chinn et al., 2020). The journalistic norm of 'balance' (giving equal \r weight to climate scientists and contrarians in climate-change \r reporting) biases coverage by unevenly amplifying certain messages \r that are not supported by science, contributing to politicisation of \r science, spreading of misinformation and reducing public consensus \r on action (Boykoff and Boykoff, 2004; Boykoff and Boykoff, 2007; Cook \r et al., 2017). Much online social media discussion of climate change \r takes place in 'echo chambers'-a social network among like-minded \r people in communities dominated by a single view that contributes to \r polarisation (Williams et al., 2015; Pearce et al., 2019) and the spread \r of misinformation (Treen et al., 2020)."


id: 1b76b100901c7c6b08add973cc9011a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"In a 2018 survey across 26 nations, people in Canada and Mexico \r ranked climate change as the top global threat, whereas in the USA \r climate change ranked third (Poushter and Huang, 2019). The public's \r responses to the causes of climate change and risk perceptions in \r Canada (Mildenberger et al., 2016) and the USA (Howe et al., 2015) \r have revealed variations among regions (Figure  14.3) and less \r acceptance of climate change in rural regions than in urban areas. \r Canadian regions have higher acceptance of climate change (e.g., \r recognise it is happening and attributable to human activity) than the \r most liberal areas in the USA (Lachapelle et al., 2012; Mildenberger \r et  al., 2016). Western Canadian regions with high carbon intensity \r economies had lower acceptance of climate change than the rest of \r Canada, whereas in the USA perceptions were more stable across \r regions (Lachapelle et al., 2012). A recent survey in Mexico found that \r [...]"


id: 4dc20da7708deecfb35a6426cc2d3077
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] for 73% of respondents climate change represents a major economic, \r environmental and social threat, and in the most vulnerable states \r (MX-SE), the perception is that climate-change impacts and \r extreme events have considerable implications for the way of life in \r communities (Zamora Saenz, 2018). In a 2017 survey, Azocar et al. \r (2021) found that 85% of respondents from Mexico acknowledged \r anthropogenic climate change. Peoples' experience with extreme \r events (e.g., hurricanes, high temperatures), socio-demographic \r characteristics, level of marginalisation and economic and social \r exclusion, as well as education levels, were important factors \r influencing perception of climate change in Mexico (Corona-Jimenez, \r 2018; Alfie and Cruz-Bello, 2021; Azocar et al., 2021). Drawing upon "


id: a929d82f52cd06e7b361cafed3d605c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Projected climate-change risk, urgency and necessary adaptations \r are perceived and understood differently by the public, communities, \r professional groups, climate scientists and public policy makers (high \r confidence) (Bolsen et  al., 2015; Drews and Van den Bergh, 2016; \r Morton et  al., 2017; Treuer et  al., 2018). People can engage with \r climate change across three dimensions: cognitive (knowledge), \r affective (feelings) and behavioural (responses and actions) (Galway, \r 2019; Brosch, 2021). Risk assessment can be influenced by values \r regarding the subject under evaluation (Allison and Bassett, 2015; \r Stevenson et al., 2015) and can interact with other risks and change \r over time (Mach et  al., 2016). Communities and practitioners (e.g., \r farmers, foresters, water managers) are influenced in their willingness \r to modify current practices and adopt new measures based on how \r they perceive, understand and experience climate-change uncertainty, \r [...]"


id: 37c76e84f2c0587a200ce435efa54985
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"such as SLR, flooding and wildfires in North America (Mildenberger \r et  al., 2019). 'Personalised' risk communications have had mixed \r results creating behavioural change and policy support, and even \r caused resistance (Schoenefeld and McCauley, 2016). Communication \r focused extensively on risks and dangers of climate change can \r produce fear or dread, lessen agency and create fatalism that hinders \r action (Giddens, 2015; Mayer and Smith, 2019); it also can be labelled \r alarmist (Leiserowitz, 2005). Detailed SLR flooding maps for the \r San Francisco Bay area did not increase climate risk assessment but \r lessened personal risk perception of those with a strong belief in \r climate change, although policy preferences and support for adaptation \r did not change (Mildenberger et al., 2019). Defining coherent groups \r based on variations in beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences \r offers opportunities for effectively engaging with segments of the \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] population instead of using the same approach for everyone (low \r confidence) (Maibach et al., 2011; Chryst et al., 2018). As an example, \r the US population was segmented into a continuum ranging from \r the 'Alarmed', the dominant group who were 'Concerned', then the \r Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and least prevalent, the Dismissive \r (Chryst et al., 2018)."


id: a190ff16dee0a9025a7efbc46117a461
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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vector_id: 25638
content:
"The practice and use of IK systems is recognised and affirmed by \r the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples \r (UNDRIP) (UNGA, 2007), and consistent with reports and guidance \r from UN bodies including the High Commissioner for Human Rights \r (Bachelet, 2019), Expert Mechanism on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples \r (UNGA, 2015; UNGA, 2018), the Permanent Forum of Indigenous Issues \r (Dodson, 2007; Cunningham Kain et al., 2013; Sena and UNPFII, 2013; \r Sena, 2014; Quispe and UNPFII, 2015) and the Special Rapporteur on \r the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter \r 18; Toledo, 2013; UNGA, 2017). The right to self-determination, control \r over territorial development and cultural integrity make it important \r that climate scientists practise equitable engagement of IK and IK \r holders. There is a growing literature of success and lessons learned \r from co-production of knowledge between IK systems and diverse \r [...]"


id: bd6b1fb02f5c3e5b44571933790be8ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] scientific traditions relating to climate change (Behe et  al., 2018; \r Latulippe and Klenk, 2020; Camacho-Villa et al., 2021)."


id: 9bf8a53b6b275ad8948763448d99ff1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Current and projected climate-change impacts disproportionately harm \r Indigenous Peoples' livelihoods and economies (very high confidence). \r Indigenous Peoples' livelihoods in North America include a range of \r activities closely tied to traditional lands, waters and territories. These \r activities support a core economic base and an array of sustenance, \r including financial stability, food security, health and nutrition, safety, \r and adequate provisions and reserves of important supplies and \r resources, as well as the passing down of traditional knowledge. \r Indigenous lives and livelihoods are at risk in the following ways: \r Indigenous persons are more at risk of losing their lives due to factors \r that are exacerbated by climate-change impacts (Ford et  al., 2006; \r Barbaras, 2014; Khalafzai et al., 2019). Indigenous Peoples' livelihood \r practices are being distressed, interrupted and, in some cases, made \r [...]"


id: cd2cf4a052b7c3371551d3472023edfa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] entirely inaccessible. Livelihood activities known and anticipated to be \r impacted by climate change are food security (Meakin and Kurtvits, \r 2009; Wesche and Chan, 2010; Nyland et al., 2017), harvesting of fish, \r plants and wildlife (Dittmer, 2013; Parlee et  al., 2014; Jantarasami \r et al., 2018b; ICC Alaska, 2020), agriculture (St Regis Mohawk Tribe, \r 2013; Shinbrot et al., 2019; Settee, 2020), transportation (Swinomish \r Indian Tribe Community, 2010; Hori et al., 2018a; Hori et al., 2018b), \r and tourism and recreation (ICC Canada, 2008). Indigenous Peoples \r have been active in gathering to assess the impacts of climate \r change on their livelihoods, one example being the Bering Sea Elders \r Advisory Group (Bering Sea Elders Advisory Group and Alaska Marine \r Conservation Council, 2011; Bering Sea Elders Group, 2016)."


id: f4983ad8ddc179a5f25aba63a35af52c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Indigenous knowledge and science are resources for understanding \r climate-change impacts and adaptive strategies (very high confidence) \r (SM14.1; Table SM14.1). The Indigenous Peoples of North America have \r contributed substantially to, and continue to contribute to, the growing \r literature, scholarship and research on climate change (Barreiro, 1999; \r Houser et al., 2001; Mustonen, 2005; Bennett et al., 2014; Maynard, \r 2014; Merculieff et al., 2017; FAQI, 2019; Ijaz, 2019; BIA, 2021). For \r thousands of years, Indigenous Peoples have developed and relied \r on their own knowledge systems for sustaining their health, cultures \r and arts, livelihoods and political security (Battiste and Henderson, \r 2000; Colombi, 2012; Nelson and Shilling, 2018). Diverse IK systems in \r North America consider weather and climate as major dimensions of \r understanding the relationship between society and the environment. \r Indigenous Peoples have distinct knowledge of climate change, over \r [...]"


id: a08e6e030583b0dcb831bcc1b60f1e8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] extensive temporal measures (Trosper, 2002; Barrera-Bassols and \r Toledo, 2005; Gearheard et  al., 2013). The basis of this knowledge \r is often Indigenous Peoples' long and profound relationships with \r the environment, that is, to the ecosystems, waters, ice, lands, \r territories and resources in their homelands. The relationships have \r been forged by adaptation to a particular environment and involve \r systematic activities. Indigenous harvesters, including hunters, \r fishers, agriculturalists and plant gatherers, observe and monitor \r environmental change, and engage in systematic reflection with one \r another about trends over short- and long-term periods (Sakakibara, \r 2010; Sanchez-Cortes and Chavero, 2011; Kermoal and Altamirano\u0002Jimenez, 2016; Metcalfe et al., 2020b). The holistic perspective of the \r interrelated and interdependent nature of ecosystems is a distinct \r characteristic of IK and often contrasts with findings and results of \r [...]"


id: 3844b9364bafd19d7e814d122188f7b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] science alone. Indigenous harvesters, agriculturalists, leaders, culture \r bearers, educators and government employees develop theoretical \r and practical knowledge of seasonal and climate change that seeks \r to furnish the best available knowledge and information to inform \r climate-change policy and decisions (Barrera-Bassols and Toledo, 2005; "


id: 6d7cd3b7dc47ff52c90450390c55159d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Recent climate-related changes represent cultural threats similar to the ones that occurred when European settlement began in the \r Americas over 500 years ago (Whyte, 2016; Whyte, 2017). Thus, for Indigenous Peoples, who often disproportionately bear the impacts \r of climate change, such changes are not novel, but seen as deja vu (Whyte, 2016). Since livelihoods and subsistence are often directly \r dependent on the land and water, Indigenous Peoples have direct insights into the localised impacts of global environmental change. \r Indeed, Indigenous Peoples consider themselves stewards of the land (and water), and have a spiritual duty to care for the land and its \r flora, fauna and aquatic community, or 'Circle' of beings. Indigenous knowledge (IK) has gained recognition for its potential to bolster \r Western scientific research about climate change. Many recent examples demonstrate the scientific value of IK for resource management \r [...]"


id: 1eca82b913025886f80f317aed1d6602
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] in climate-change adaptation and mitigation (e.g., Kronik and Verner, 2010; Maldonado et al., 2013; Wildcat, 2013; Etchart, 2017; Nursey\u0002Bray et al., 2019). For example, Indigenous practices have not only contributed to the present understanding of North American forest \r fires, but also that the practice of frequent small-scale anthropogenic fires, also called cultural burns, is a key method to prevent large\u0002scale destructive fires (Section 14.7.1). The growing interest and recognised value in these practices, particularly in California, has led to \r formal agreements with state and federal agencies (Long et al., 2020a; Lake, 2021)."


id: 4a75289b053986e4bf37f4c29d7a2ef9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Indigenous relationships with the land are commonly informed and guided by a cultural ethic of 'responsibility-based thinking' (Sioui \r and McLeman, 2014). The Indigenous cultural ethic informs and mediates personal and collective conduct with a sense of duty or \r responsibility towards human and other-than-human relations (see Sioui, 2020). The Indigenous responsibility-based outlook stems from \r a cultural paradigm that understands that it is human beings who must learn to live with the land (Cajete, 1999; Pierotti and Wildcat, \r 2000; McGregor et al., 2010a; McGregor, 2014). This way of thinking instils in its adherents an inherent awareness that the other-than\u0002human realm is capable of existing and thriving without humans. Thus, it is for our own sake (as humans) that we learn to live according \r to certain ever-shifting parameters, requiring us to remain acutely attuned to our physical surroundings. This Indigenous cultural precept \r [...]"


id: 5fff158e929e15bfc238d28e0cd56bb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] is perhaps among the most significant contributions of Indigenous Peoples to the rest of humanity in the face of climate change."


id: 3582a3cacf0d8d4d0f5b8af6dd20dbbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Indigenous relationships with natural systems continue to be mediated by cultural orders of governance and legal systems that pre\u0002date, by several millennia, European traditions in North America. Napolean (2012) describes Indigenous legal orders as dynamic and \r encompassing knowledge that is simultaneously legal, religious, philosophical, social and scientific. Customary Indigenous legal orders \r (e.g., Borrows, 2002; Napolean, 2012) stand in contrast to Eurocentric understandings of law, which are closely related to, and founded \r on, the Western principles of rights. Indigenous legal orders are based on duties, obligations and responsibilities to the land and all beings, \r including humans, animals, plants, future generations and the departed/ancestors (Borrows, 2002; Borrows, 2010a; Borrows, 2010b; \r Borrows, 2016). Indigenous spiritual laws are centred on the values of responsibility and accountability to the land, and how these differ, \r [...]"


id: 2b24c47f8bf408d16c31e5b5d4f4827b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] in theory and in practice, from Western law, which is based on 'universal' principles, with little consideration for the local environmental \r context (Craft, 2014). Research has elucidated these Indigenous understandings about how their land-based responsibilities act as the \r foundation of how humans must operate according to the land on which they live and depend."


id: 13c0efe28a6684522cd13bc4a22200eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"With increasing climate-change threats to land-based subsistence and cultural practices, Indigenous Peoples are increasingly taking their \r rightful leadership roles in resource co-management arrangements and other stewardship activities (Section 14.5.2.2). Indeed, Indigenous \r Peoples are increasingly assuming leadership positions with regard to land governance and climate-change action, as the stewards of \r their traditional territories since time immemorial. Therefore, it is imperative for Indigenous scholars, Elders and knowledge holders to \r occupy leadership roles in climate-change adaptation and mitigation, especially when their territories are concerned (Section 14.7; CCP6). \r For instance, Indigenous 'resurgence' paradigms draw on the strengths of traditional land-based culture and knowledge with regard to \r Indigenous leadership in land governance and stewardship (Alfred and Corntassel, 2005; Alfred, 2009; Simpson, 2011; Corntassel and \r [...]"


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"[...] Bryce, 2012; Coulthard, 2014; Alfred, 2015). Indigenous leadership in climate-change policy, therefore, can ensure that Indigenous right \r to self-determination is respected and upheld to allow Indigenous Peoples to continue to carry out their cultural responsibilities to the \r land, for the benefit of all North Americans (Powless, 2012; Etchart, 2017)."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18795
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"In northern Canada, a fusion of leading-edge Western science and IK on permafrost informed the co-development of predictive decision\u0002support tools and risk management strategies to inventory and manage permafrost and adapt to permafrost thaw (CCP6). Permafrost \r thaw in the Dehcho region of Canada is widespread and occurring at unprecedented rates (WGI). The Dehcho Collaborative on Permafrost\r (DCoP) aims to improve the understanding of and ability to predict and adapt to permafrost thaw3\r . DCoP's collaborative approach, \r which places Indigenous Peoples in leadership positions, generates the new knowledge, predictive capacity and decision-support tools to \r manage natural resources that support Indigenous Dene Peoples' ways of life. Indigenous-academic partnerships can enhance climate\u0002change adaptation and mitigation capacity, and provide openings for more holistic co-management approaches that recognise and \r [...]"


id: 9cdf0b839fbe3d27dfbb940d66344a38
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] affirm the central role of Indigenous Peoples as stewards of their ancestral territories, especially as they face accelerating climate-change \r impacts. Academic researchers and their Indigenous partners can support climate-change resilience via mobilising IK in stewardship \r and adaptation; researching governance arrangements, economic relationships and other factors that hinder Indigenous efforts in these \r areas; proposing evidence-based policy solutions at international and national scales; and outlining culturally relevant tools for assessing \r vulnerability and building capacity will also support climate-change resilience. Such IK underpins successful climate-change adaptation \r and mitigation (very high confidence) (see Green and Raygorodetsky, 2010; Kronik and Verner, 2010; Alexander et al., 2011; Powless, \r 2012; Ford et al., 2016; Nakashima et al., 2018). The inclusion of IK in adaptation and mitigation not only supports Indigenous cultural \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] survival but also enables governments to recognise the territorial sovereignty of Indigenous Peoples."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Responsibility-based philosophies of Indigenous Peoples from across the continent support the development of climate-change adaptation \r and mitigation strategies that promote responsible and respectful relationships with the environment over the long term. Adapting to \r change, in all its forms, has since time immemorial been one of the defining characteristics of Indigenous cultures on Turtle Island (the \r American continent). In Yucatan, one Elder explained that with regards to climate-change impacts in the region, the Maya have always \r dealt with k'ech, or change, and that accepting and responding to change is part of the Maya identity and responsibility (Sioui, 2020). \r Given successive failures in adequately and effectively responding to climate change, it has become urgent for the rest of the human \r collective to (re)learn from Indigenous cultures to (re)consider our responsibility/ies to the land--the world over--and to reorient our \r [...]"


id: d651ff26895a7dd3ce596ee2b77f62d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] societal imperatives to better respond and react to change. Such a process of learning from IK could foster the development of climate\u0002change policies that promote responsible and respectful relationships with the environment over the long term, and prove to be more \r effective and holistic. Although most inhabitants of North America are non-Indigenous, it is possible and beneficial for our societies to \r learn to think and act in a more responsibility-based way about our relations to the land, and, by extension, about climate-change policy. \r A collective commitment to protecting and advancing Indigenous territorial rights, so Indigenous Peoples can continue to reassert their \r spiritual duty and role as stewards of their traditional territories, benefits all human and other-than-human 'Peoples'."


id: 5b5abb3c0f1addb721919d2690ea84ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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content:
"Inc., 2016; Scott et al., 2017; Reo and Ogden, 2018; Middleton et al., \r 2020a) and changing production systems (Rioja-Rodriguez et  al., \r 2018). Indigenous Peoples' mental health is at risk and has already \r been affected negatively by climate change (Donatuto et  al., 2021). \r Water security is one of the most serious concerns to Indigenous \r Peoples' health and well-being (Vanderslice, 2011; Cozzetto et  al., \r 2013a; Redsteer et al., 2013; Hanrahan et al., 2014; Chief et al., 2016; \r Gamble et al., 2016; Jantarasami et al., 2018b; Kloesel et al., 2018a; \r Tom et al., 2018; Martin et al., 2020a; Arsenault, 2021). When some \r people are less able to practise traditional, cultural, social and family \r activities, they can become alienated, compounding the negative \r effects of traumas Indigenous persons already experience. Traumas \r include historic and continuing land dispossession, assimilation, social \r marginalisation and discrimination, and food and financial insecurities. \r [...]"


id: 2a39b944902f75bf932f02872aac6782
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"[...] The practise of cultural traditions are associated with education, \r harvesting and agriculture, exercise, positive social relationships \r and family life, which play foundational roles in the achievement of \r physical, public and mental health (Bell et  al., 2010; Cunsolo Willox \r et al., 2015; Jantarasami et al., 2018b; Norgaard and Tripp, 2019; Billiot \r et al., 2020b; Adams et al., 2021; Donatuto et al., 2021)."


id: 25e8e0c06c81594f8039c0feeaf04912
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3848
content:
"are less available and harvesting activities are less possible to practise \r (Norton-Smith et al., 2016b; Rosol et al., 2016; Gonzalez et al., 2018). \r Indigenous Peoples experience widespread public health concerns from \r severe droughts (Stewart et al., 2020; Schlinger et al., 2021; Wiecks \r et  al., 2021), extreme heat (Doyle et  al., 2013; Campo Caap, 2018; \r Kloesel et al., 2018a; Meadow et al., 2018; ITK, 2019; Ute Mountain \r Ute Tribe and Wood Environment Infrastructure Solutions Inc, 2019; \r Whyte et  al., 2021), unpredictable precipitation patterns (Chavarria \r and Gutzler, 2018; Tom et al., 2018; Tlingit and Haida, 2019; Schlinger \r et al., 2021), flooding and coastal erosion (Jamestown S'klallam Tribe, \r 2016; Norton-Smith et  al., 2016b; Puyallup Tribe of Indians, 2016; \r Marks-Marino, 2019; Ristroph, 2019; Marks-Marino, 2020b; Schlinger \r et al., 2021), wildfires and wildfire smoke (Edwin and Molders, 2018; \r [...]"


id: d8be7ed4132f5206b4a24b03c8ba6d42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35430
content:
"[...] USEPA, 2018; Christianson et  al., 2019a; ITK, 2019; Marks-Marino, \r 2020a; Mottershead et al., 2020; Woo et al., 2020; Wiecks et al., 2021), \r algal blooms (Peacock et al., 2018; Gobler, 2020; Donatuto et al., 2021; \r Preece et al., 2021; Schlinger et al., 2021), storms and hurricanes (Rioja\u0002Rodriguez et al., 2018), influxes of invasive species (Pfeiffer and Huerta \r Ortiz, 2007; Pfeiffer and Voeks, 2008; Voggesser et al., 2013; Bad River \r Band of Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians and Abt Associates "


id: 9396b8848b3b255b59472be024050f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"communities. Through self-determination, durable, sustainable and \r robust contributions from those with close, symbiotic relationships with \r the environment can be revealed in favour of all humanity. Indigenous \r Peoples of North America have been engaged in wide-ranging activities \r to address climate change (Doolittle, 2010; Parker and Grossman, \r 2012; Abate and Kronk, 2013; STACCWG, 2021). They include actions \r in the spheres of education (Donatuto et  al., 2020; McClain, 2021; \r Morales et al., 2021), development of IK and science (Maldonado et al., \r 2016; AFN, 2020; Ferguson and Weaselboy, 2020; Huntington et  al., \r 2021a; Jones et al., 2021; Sawatzky et al., 2021), adaptation planning \r and implementation (Angel et  al., 2018a; Tribal Climate Adaptation \r Guidebook Writing Team et al., 2018; Hepler and Kronk Warner, 2019; \r Tribal Adaptation Menu Team, 2019; Metcalfe et al., 2020b), and political \r action and diplomacy (including treaty-based diplomacy) (Grossman, \r [...]"


id: bd6bb24cb56e59a1d15560662ca1a2e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30582
content:
"Indigenous Peoples are affected dramatically by climate-related \r disasters and other climate-related extreme environmental events (very \r high confidence). Indigenous Peoples face numerous threats and have \r already been harmed by, and are planning for, extreme weather events \r with associations to climate change, including hurricanes and tornadoes \r (Oneida Nation Pre-Disaster Mitigation Plan Steering Committee \r and Bay-Lake Regional Planning Commission, 2016; Emanuel, 2019; \r Cooley, 2021; Marks-Marino, 2021; Zambrano et al., 2021), heatwaves \r (Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, 2016; Wall, \r 2017; La Jolla Band of Luiseno Indians, 2019; Mashpee Wampanoag, \r 2019; Wiecks et  al., 2021), ocean warming and MHWs (Hoh Indian \r Tribe, 2016; Port Gamble S'klallam Tribe, 2016; Port Gamble S'klallam \r Tribe, 2020; State of Alaska, 2020; Muckleshoot Tribal Council, 2021; \r Port Gamble S'klallam Tribe, 2021), wildfires (Voggesser et  al., 2013; \r [...]"


id: 823e61557f9723ecf68150f54b98bbf5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20044
content:
"[...] Billiot et  al., 2020a; Cozzetto et  al., 2021b; Gaughen et  al., 2021; \r Morales et  al., 2021; National Tribal Air Association, 2021; Zambrano \r et al., 2021), permafrost thaw (Haynes et al., 2018; Low, 2020), flooding \r (Riley et al., 2011; Ballard and Thompson, 2013; Brubaker et al., 2014; \r Thompson et  al., 2014; Burkett et  al., 2017; Quinault Indian Nation, \r 2017; Ristroph, 2019; Sharp, 2019; Thistlethwaite et  al., 2020) and \r drought (Knutson et al., 2007; Chief et al., 2016; Redsteer et al., 2018; \r Sioui, 2019; Bamford et al., 2020; Sauchyn et al., 2020). Some Indigenous \r Peoples are facing climate-change impacts that generate community\u0002led permanent relocation and resettlement as an adaptation option \r (Maldonado et al., 2021). Coastal erosion is one climate-change issue \r that is often connected to Indigenous Peoples planning to resettle, \r including vulnerability connected to higher sea levels and storm surges \r [...]"


id: ae5f64e5391e542efd0deaa1993eb28d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27907
content:
"[...] (Quinault Indian Nation, 2017; Bronen et al., 2018; Affiliated Tribes of \r Northwest Indians, 2020). Adapting to new settlement areas threatens \r the continuity of communities. In a number of cases, Indigenous Peoples' \r having less access to adequate infrastructure is a driver of vulnerability \r to climate-related disasters and extreme weather events (Doyle et al., \r 2018; Patrick, 2018; Cozzetto et al., 2021a; Indigenous Climate Action \r et al., 2021). Disasters and extreme events are particularly severe when \r their impacts are compounded by inadequate infrastructure. Lack of \r flood protection infrastructure on Indigenous reserve communities leads \r to displacement, loss of homes and perpetuates disproportionate levels \r of risk to extreme weather events (Cunsolo et al., 2020; Fayazi et al., \r 2020; Yellow Old Woman-Munro et al., 2021)."


id: 46de18a980a992ba6226b15a2e8a96dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9671
content:
"Climate-change impacts on natural disturbances have affected \r ecosystems (very high confidence) (Table  14.2; see Box  14.2), and \r these impacts will increase with future climate change (medium \r confidence). Facilitated by warm, dry conditions, 'mega-disturbances' \r and synergies between disturbances that include wildfires, insect \r and disease outbreaks, and drought-induced tree mortality continue \r to affect large areas of North America (Cohen et  al., 2016; Young \r et al., 2017a; Hicke et al., 2020), overwhelming adaptive capacities \r of species and degrading ecosystem services (Millar and Stephenson, \r 2015; Stewart et al., 2021). This era of mega-disturbances is expected \r to become more widespread and severe in coming decades (Cook \r et al., 2015; Seidl et al., 2017; Buotte et al., 2019), with potentially \r significant impacts on ecosystems (Allen et al., 2015; Crausbay et al., \r 2017; Schwalm et  al., 2017; Coop et  al., 2020; Dove et  al., 2020 \r [...]"


id: 695ad7d01972c86d7beda5ce616c4623
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15801
content:
"[...] Thompson et al. 2020, Stewart et al. 2021). Effects include widespread \r tree mortality (Allen et  al., 2015; Kane et  al., 2017; van Mantgem \r et  al., 2018) and accelerated ecosystem transformation (medium \r confidence) (Guiterman et al., 2018; Crausbay et al., 2020; Munson \r et al., 2020)."


id: ea0bba9f1db62c962c1a03e736f46cb8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38524
content:
"Adaptation efforts to assess vulnerability of species and ecosystems, \r predict adaptive capacity and identify conservation-oriented options \r have increased markedly across North America (e.g., Hagerman and \r Pelai, 2018; Keeley et  al., 2018; Thurman et  al., 2020; Peterson St\u0002Laurent et al., 2021; Thompson et al., 2021). Scenario-based planning, \r an approach for addressing uncertainty, continues to gain traction and \r is regularly applied by the US National Park Service (Star et al., 2016). \r Nonetheless, barriers to implementation of specific actions often exist \r (e.g., inflexible policies, lack of resources and stakeholder buy-in, \r political will), hampering progress (Stein et al., 2013; Shi and Moser, \r 2021). Efforts to evaluate the efficacy of implemented adaptation \r actions are also lacking (Prober et  al., 2019), but some cases show \r progress. For example, ongoing efforts are quantifying how variable \r water releases from the Colorado River's Glen Canyon Dam affect \r [...]"


id: c6fba12b43b1fbcc2bdbb5e930ec48c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32316
content:
"[...] endangered fish species (Melis et al., 2016). Nature-based Solutions \r (NbS) for adaptation (see Box 14.7) are increasingly being evaluated, \r especially at larger scales."


id: ec0743beeeb08ce909cd9351e309f768
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38893
content:
"Effective climate-informed ecosystem management requires a well\u0002coordinated suite of adaptation efforts (e.g., assessment, planning, \r funding, implementation and evaluation) that is co-produced among \r stakeholders, Indigenous Peoples and across sectors (high confidence) \r (Millar and Stephenson, 2015; Dilling et al., 2019). New applications \r of conventional strategies can be modified to achieve conservation \r goals under climate change (USGCRP, 2019). For example, mechanical \r thinning and prescribed burning (to reduce fuel loads and benefit \r ecosystems) could be used in combination with planting species better \r suited to new conditions to build resilience in western US forests to \r longer and hotter drought conditions (Bradford and Bell, 2017; Vernon \r et al., 2018). Protection of buffer areas, such as riparian strips in arid \r regions and boreal ecosystems, reduces water temperature, builds \r resistance to invasive species, increases suitable habitat (Johnson and \r [...]"


id: 63990366bdcc813f4a2cf62f507e0c59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14813
content:
"[...] Almlof, 2016) and facilitates protection of freshwater systems from \r runoff during and after intense rain events (National Research Council, \r 2002)."


id: e27387dee396f5fd13221fcbd29c9257
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37138
content:
"Projected climate change will cause habitat loss, alter physical and bio\u0002logical processes, and decrease water quality in freshwater ecosystems \r (high confidence) (Poesch et al., 2016; Crozier et al., 2019). Projected \r river warming of 1degC-3degC is expected to reduce thermal habitat for \r important salmon and trout species in the northwest USA by 5-31% \r (Isaak et al., 2018) and in Mexico (Meza-Matty et al., 2021), and for \r multiple fish species in Canada (Poesch et al., 2016). Cold-water streams \r at higher elevations will warm less and therefore may become climate \r refugia (Isaak et al., 2016). Projected warming of mountain lake eco\u0002systems (Roberts et al., 2017b; Redmond, 2018) will affect ecosystem \r processes (Preston et al., 2016; Redmond, 2018; Moser et al., 2019). Loss \r of cold-water inputs from retreating glaciers are expected to adversely \r affect alpine stream ecosystems (Fell et al., 2017; Giersch et al., 2017). \r [...]"


id: ba499d707853146728f5dd1e8f8db616
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29994
content:
"[...] For anadromous fish species (e.g., Chinook salmon), future warming \r will reduce habitat suitability from river headwaters to oceans (Crozier \r et al., 2021)."


id: 14a2e5f5ad0f9fec1295d5e30de81f1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 853
content:
"2019). Higher ocean temperatures have directly affected food-web \r structure (Gibert, 2019) and altered physiological rates, distribution, \r phenology and behaviour of marine species with cascading effects \r on food-web dynamics (very high confidence) (Gattuso et  al., 2015; \r Pinsky and Byler, 2015; Sydeman et al., 2015; Poloczanska et al., 2016; \r Frolicher et al., 2018; Le Bris et al., 2018; Free et al., 2019; Stevenson \r and Lauth, 2019; Barbeaux et al., 2020; Dahlke et al., 2020). Pacific \r coastal waters from Mexico to Canada and US mid-Atlantic coastal \r waters have a high proportion of species (>5% of all marine species) \r near their upper thermal limit, representing hotspots of risk from MHWs \r (medium confidence) (Smale et  al., 2019; Dahlke et  al., 2020). Kelp, \r a macroalgae, forms important habitat for other marine species, and \r its biomass has decreased 85-99% in the past 40-60 years off Nova \r Scotia, Canada, replaced by invasive and turf algae; this is associated \r [...]"


id: 6f6bb5fb636ea1248f17ab8b991246f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16868
content:
"Climate change has induced phenological and spatial shifts in primary \r productivity with cascading impacts on food webs (high confidence) \r (Siddon et al., 2013; Stortini et al., 2015; Sydeman et al., 2015; Stanley \r et al., 2018). This includes widespread starvation events of fish, birds \r (e.g., tufted puffins in Bering Sea in 2016-2017 and Cassin's Auklets \r in British Columbia in 2014-2015) and marine mammals (grey whales \r along both coasts of North America) (Sydeman et  al., 2015; Duffy\u0002Anderson et al., 2019; Jones et al., 2019b; Cheung and Frolicher, 2020; \r Piatt et  al., 2020), which challenge protected species and fisheries \r management (Section 14.5.4; Chasco et al., 2017; Wilson et al., 2018; \r Barbeaux et al., 2020; Free et al., 2020; Fisher et al., 2021; Cheung and \r Frolicher, 2020). Climate change has altered foraging behaviour and \r distribution of North Atlantic right whales and their target copepod \r [...]"


id: 7983511a1fc01586b76abead8a6a5ffc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18583
content:
"[...] prey (Record et  al., 2019) increasing entanglement rates in lobster \r and snow crab fishing gear on the east coast of the USA and Canada \r as lobster and crab distributions also shift due to changing water "


id: 21be8d7f78dd75104adfbecc9ac9e2da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3151
content:
"Recent Observations, Attribution to Climate Change and Projections\r Anthropogenic climate change has led to warmer and drier conditions (i.e., fire weather) that favour wildland fires in North America \r (high confidence) (see AR6, WGI, Chapter 12, Ranasinghe et al., 2021). In response, increased burned area in recent decades in western \r North America has been facilitated by anthropogenic climate change (medium confidence). Annual numbers of large wildland fires and \r area burned have risen in the past several decades in the western USA (USGCRP, 2017; USGCRP, 2018), and area burned has increased \r in Canada (although the number of large fires has declined slightly recently) (Gauthier et al., 2014; Natural Resources Canada, 2018; \r Hanes et al., 2019). Attribution studies have reported that climate change increased burned area in Canada (1959-1999) (Gillett et al., \r [...]"


id: 5e13c8303ed735a60c4b8c6308868fc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13847
content:
"[...] 2004) as well as the western USA (1984-2015) (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016) and California (1972-2018) (Williams et al., 2019a). \r Decreased precipitation was the primary climate-change cause of increased burned area in the western USA, with warming a secondary \r influence (Holden et al. 2018), whereas warming (through aridity) was most important in a California study (Williams et al., 2019a). A \r drier atmosphere (including reduced precipitation) has been linked to climate change through altered large-scale atmospheric circulation, \r which then facilitated greater burned area in the western USA (Zhang et al., 2019c). Through anomalous warm and dry conditions, \r anthropogenic climate change contributed to the extreme fires of 2016 (Kirchmeier-Young et al., 2019; Tan et al., 2019) in western \r Canada and the extreme fire season in 2015 in Alaska (Partain et al., 2017). These studies did not include human activities that influence \r [...]"


id: 481af472ce70fa6a30c106ca7b7b539a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9902
content:
"California fires were 149 billion USD (Wang et al., 2021). Poor air quality from fires caused increased respiratory distress (very high \r confidence); exposure extends long distances from the fire source (Section 14.5.6.3). In addition to public and private property damage \r and loss, fires have caused irretrievable losses from archaeological and historical sites (Ryan et al., 2012). Post-fire conditions have \r created unanticipated challenges for communities' water supply operations (Bladon et al., 2014; Navar, 2015; Martin, 2016) by altering \r water quality and availability (Smith et al., 2011; Bladon et al., 2014; Robinne et al., 2020) or public safety by increasing exposure to mass \r wasting events after extreme rainfall events (Cui et al., 2019; Kean et al., 2019). California utilities have proactively shut down parts of \r their electricity grid to reduce risk of fire during extreme weather, and substantial numbers of people will be increasingly vulnerable to \r [...]"


id: c20c94d95976a11bfb79d7f9e2bd75bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31439
content:
"In North American Arctic marine systems, rapid warming is significant, \r with cascading impacts beyond polar regions (CCP6), and presents \r limited opportunities (tourism, shipping, extractive) but high risks \r (shipping, fishing industries, Indigenous subsistence and cultural \r activities) (high confidence) (Sections  14.5.4, 14.5.9, 14.5.11; CCP6 \r Gaines et  al., 2018; IPCC, 2019b; Samhouri et  al., 2019; Free et  al., \r 2020; Holsman et al., 2020). Both direct hazards and indirect food-web \r alterations from sea ice loss have imperilled seabirds, marine mammals, \r small-boat operators, subsistence hunters and coastal communities \r (CCP6; Sigler et al., 2014; Allison and Bassett, 2015; Huntington et al., \r 2015; Hauser et  al., 2018; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018; \r Dezutter et al., 2019). Increasingly favourable environmental conditions \r due to warming combined with shipping and other activities has raised \r [...]"


id: a0cfdaf4b6c11736f129d71c5ea7c593
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25506
content:
"[...] the rate of invasive species movement into the Arctic (Mueter et al., \r 2011). Sea ice loss due to climate change is expected to accelerate over \r the next century (Section 14.2, Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)."


id: bf614a38ef1bf79719ef2186fff22450
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30939
content:
"Sea level rise has led to flooding, erosion and damage to infrastructure \r along the western Gulf of Mexico, the southeast US coasts and the \r southern coast of the Gulf of St Lawrence (very high confidence) \r (Section  14.2; Daigle, 2006; Lemmen et  al., 2016; Frederikse et  al., \r 2020). Mangroves, important nurseries for fish and climate refugia for \r corals (Yates et al., 2014), are under threat from climate change along \r the east coast of Mexico (Pedrozo Acuna, 2012). This SLR, storm surge \r and attendant erosion of coastlines and barrier habitats are projected \r to have large impacts on coastal ecosystems, maritime industries \r (Section 14.5.9), urban centres and cities (Section 14.5.5) along the \r Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, southeast USA, southern Gulf of St \r Lawrence and Pacific Coast of Mexico (see Box 14.4; Semarnat, 2014; \r Sweet et al., 2017; Vousdoukas et al., 2020). Coastal archaeological \r and historical sites are especially vulnerable to SLR (Anderson et al., \r [...]"


id: 613257ecfdc8e41bcdf15a7934cc5446
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14397
content:
"Open ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) are expanding in the North \r Atlantic, the North Pacific California Current and tropical oceans due to \r warming waters, stratification and changes in precipitation (medium \r confidence) (WGI Section  3.6.2; Deutsch et  al., 2015b; Breitburg \r et al., 2018; Claret et al., 2018; Ito et al., 2019). Hypoxic events along \r coasts, which are partially influenced by climate change, have been \r documented for all three countries, with events more prevalent \r on the east coast and around the Gulf of Mexico due to a regional \r oceanography dominated by rivers and estuaries carrying land-based \r nutrients (Breitburg et  al., 2018). Hypoxia has directly caused large \r mortality events for fish and crabs in US estuaries in the Northwest \r Atlantic (Chesapeake Bay), Northeast Pacific (Puget Sound) and the \r Gulf of Mexico (Froehlich et al., 2015; Rakocinski and Menke, 2016; \r Sato et al., 2016; Kolesar et al., 2017). The OMZs and hypoxic events \r [...]"


id: 45a969ceaf70cab303362ac964425e72
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9471
content:
"[...] are projected to increase over the next century and may limit where \r fish can move (medium confidence) (Deutsch et  al., 2015b; Stortini \r et al., 2015; Bianucci et al., 2016; Li et al., 2016)."


id: 1afa47e4736f823d0b322a93cdf58ebe
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vector_id: 1942
content:
"Marine heatwaves are periods of discrete anomalously high (compared with a 30-year history) sea surface temperatures that persist for \r a minimum 5 d but up to several months (Hobday et al., 2016; Frolicher et al., 2018; Holbrook et al., 2019; Laufkotter et al., 2020). There \r have been MHWs attributed to climate change in every marine system of North America including large areas of the Northwest Atlantic \r (2012), Caribbean Sea (2015), Bering Sea (2016-2018) and central through Northeast Pacific (2013-2016) (NOAA, 2018; Holbrook et al., \r 2019; Smale et al., 2019). Such MHW events have affected kelp forests (Arafeh-Dalmau et al., 2019), corals (Eakin et al., 2018), seagrasses, \r bottom-dwelling organisms, marine birds (Loredo et al., 2019; Smale et al., 2019), mammals (Suryan et al., 2021), fish and shellfish, and \r marine-dependent human communities (Huntington et al., 2020; Fisher et al., 2021; Suryan et al., 2021). Increased sea temperatures \r [...]"


id: 53719b19cf70bfea19887df5debdf661
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11958
content:
"[...] directly increase metabolic demand and change productivity and behaviour of fish species (Stock et al., 2017; Free et al., 2019) as well as \r induce rapid redistribution of species poleward and to deeper, colder waters (Pecl et al., 2017; Rheuban et al., 2017; Crozier et al., 2019; \r Stevenson and Lauth, 2019; Yang et al., 2019; Barbeaux et al., 2020; Cheung and Frolicher, 2020). In the Pacific, from the Baja Peninsula \r to the Bering Sea, there is evidence of widespread shifts in coastal biota and multi-trophic-level starvation of seabirds and whales from \r combined metabolic demand and reduced prey quality associated with protracted MHWs across multiple regions ((CCP6); Sydeman et al., \r 2015; Duffy-Anderson et al., 2019; Sanford et al., 2019; Smale et al., 2019; Suryan et al. 2021). The distribution of two economically \r important North American species, Bering Sea Pacific cod (Pinsky et al., 2013b; Stevenson and Lauth, 2019; Barbeaux et al., 2020; Spies \r [...]"


id: 702a05e6b944a4a8d07fd7b2cf26546c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16988
content:
"[...] et al., 2020) and American lobster (Rheuban et al., 2017), have shifted north. The MHW-induced loss of coral reefs across tropical North \r American waters has varied in severity regionally. For instance, in 2015 and 2016, extensive, severe bleaching affected more than 30% \r of corals off the southeast USA and a large proportion of US Hawaiian Islands, but had moderate to no impact off the Mexican Yucatan \r Peninsula (Frieler et al., 2013; Weijerman et al., 2015a; Weijerman et al., 2015b; Cinner et al., 2016; van Hooidonk et al., 2016; Hughes \r et al., 2018; Sully et al., 2019; Williams et al., 2019b). Some reefs are exhibiting recovery following efforts focused at reducing non-climate \r stressors (e.g., overfishing, nutrient pollution and tourism use). Such MHWs are increasing in intensity and frequency (Hobday et al., 2016; \r Smale et al., 2019) with the largest increases in frequency and spatial coverage projected for the Gulf of Mexico, US southern east coast \r [...]"


id: 66d97f495569dc8a8e2d5e800398e3dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15359
content:
"[...] and US Pacific Northwest (Ranasinghe et al., 2021) and pose a key risk to marine systems in North America (Section 14.5.2; Chapters 3, 16)."


id: 2cc99d7111da2bf5f158961bc73e1ae6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5148
content:
"Ocean management that utilises a portfolio of nested, multi-scale, \r climate-informed and ecosystem-based management approaches \r in North American waters can increase the resilience of marine \r ecosystems by addressing multiple stressors simultaneously (high \r confidence) (Marshall et al., 2018; Holsman et al., 2019; Smale et al., \r 2019; Holsman et al., 2020). Integrated ecosystem assessments (Foley \r et al., 2013; Levin et al., 2014) are increasingly used to provide strategic \r advice and context for harvest allocations and bycatch avoidance \r (Zador et al., 2017) as well as early warnings of ecosystem-wide change \r (e.g., sentinel species, ecological indicators) (Cavole et al., 2016; Hazen \r et al., 2019; Moore and Kuletz, 2019). Dynamic ocean management \r policies may improve resilience of marine species and ecosystems \r to climate (medium confidence) (Hyrenbach et  al., 2000; Maxwell \r et al., 2015; Dunn et al., 2016; Tommasi et al., 2017a; Tommasi et al., \r [...]"


id: 76d1d72041ae6ea75aec824fc8d9409e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18117
content:
"[...] 2017b; Hazen et al., 2018; Wilson et al., 2018; Holsman et al., 2019; \r Karp et al., 2019). New proactive and rapid management approaches \r have been developed to minimise impacts of increasingly frequent \r entanglements of protected species, caused by climate-driven changes \r in prey and fishery activities (Corkeron et  al., 2018; Meyer-Gutbrod \r et al., 2018). Dynamic closure areas are being used to address these \r issues and reduce loggerhead turtle bycatch in Hawaiian shallow-set \r longline fisheries (Howell et al., 2015; Lewison et al., 2015), blue whale \r ship-strike risk in near-real time (Hazen et al., 2017; Abrahms et al., \r 2019b) and bycatch of multiple top predator species in a west coast \r drift gillnet fishery (Hazen et al., 2018)."


id: e60300ee19eb3ff87ebcf0a408490a62
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37763
content:
"North America's dams, levees, wastewater-management and water \r conveyance facilities have improved water supply safety and have \r reduced flood and drought risks, but a substantial portion of that \r infrastructure is ageing and inadequate for modern conditions (Ho \r et  al., 2017; Tellman et  al., 2018; Carlisle et  al., 2019; FEMA, 2019; \r ASCE, 2021). Increasingly heavy precipitation from a variety of \r storm types has affected parts of North America (Feng et  al., 2016; \r Prein et al., 2017a; Kunkel and Champion, 2019; Kunkel et al., 2020), \r contributing to contamination from combined sewer overflows (Olds \r et al., 2018) and increased flood damages that are partially attributed \r to anthropogenic climate change (van der Wiel et al., 2017; Davenport, \r 2021). Extreme precipitation events have overwhelmed water control \r infrastructure, imperilling public safety and contributing to extensive \r damages in parts of North America (Kytomaa et al., 2019; Vano et al., \r [...]"


id: 66ee49746b86b4117ca01097e715cdba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15374
content:
"[...] 2019; White et al., 2019). Damages stem from extremity of the event \r and prior land-use and infrastructure decisions (high confidence)."


id: 54bdb8a13c808fcc8f0d3cecaee1e7bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12177
content:
"Securing broodstocks for rebuilding and supplementation can \r be challenging for marine populations already in decline (e.g., \r blue king crab in Alaska, steelhead salmon in Puget Sound, white \r abalone in California, groundfish in the northeast USA and Canada) \r (Section 14.5.4; Table SM14.8). Marine protected areas can attenuate \r climate impacts through trophic redundancy, preserving ecological \r processes, biodiversity and climate refugia (Roberts et  al., 2017a; \r Schoen et  al., 2017), although benefits decrease after mid-century \r (or sooner for high-latitude marine protected areas) as species reach \r their thermal limit, unless coupled with GHG mitigation (Bruno et al., \r 2018). Transport, relocation and cultivation of resistant breeds of \r salmon, oysters, corals, marine mammals and other keystone species, \r as well as hatchery supplementation of impaired populations of fish \r and shellfish, are species conservation and recovery methods that will \r [...]"


id: db1b096abb884eab4f90bcf4a71611bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35825
content:
"Climate trends are affecting riverine, lake and reservoir water quality \r (medium confidence). Droughts and increased evapotranspiration have \r impaired water quality by concentrating pollutants in diminished water \r volumes (Paul et  al., 2019a). Cyanobacterial blooms and pathogen \r exposure events are increasing in frequency, intensity and duration in \r North America (Taranu et al., 2015). They are closely associated with \r observed changes in precipitation intensity and associated nutrient \r loading (e.g., agricultural runoff, sanitary sewer overflows), elevated \r water temperatures and eutrophication (Michalak et  al., 2013; \r Michalak, 2016; Trtanj et al., 2016; Chapra et al., 2017; IBWC, 2017; \r Williamson et al., 2017; Olds et al., 2018; Coffey et al., 2019). These \r events endanger human and animal health, recreational and drinking \r water uses and aquatic ecosystem functioning, and cause economic \r losses (Michalak et  al., 2013; Bullerjahn et  al., 2016; Chapra et  al., \r [...]"


id: e04ffe0fd53a5685a9a2d2dc3dfb3624
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36715
content:
"[...] 2017; Huisman et al., 2018). Households and communities dependent \r on substandard wells, unimproved water sources or deficient water \r provision systems are more exposed than others to experience climate\u0002related impairment of drinking water quality (Section 14.5.6.5; Allaire \r et  al., 2018; Baeza et  al., 2018; California State Water Resources \r Control Board, 2021; Navarro-Espinoza et al., 2021; Water and Tribes \r Initiative, 2021)."


id: bd920ca8dd8e6c34ae3206b31e33d5c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30612
content:
"changes to improve groundwater regulation and documentation of \r water rights (California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2017; \r Miller, 2017; Lund et al., 2018; Hanak et al., 2019). Water allocation \r policies are being reassessed to enhance equity, sustainability and \r flexibility through shortage sharing agreements, improved groundwater \r regulation and voluntary water transfers. Developments include an \r interstate drought management agreement for the Colorado River (US \r Law, 2019), and agreements between the USA and Mexico to provide \r pulse flows to benefit the ecology of the Colorado River Delta (Pitt and \r Kendy, 2017). Statewide water planning in Colorado has emphasised \r building drought resilience (e.g., by facilitating temporary water \r transfers) (Colorado State Government, 2015; Yates et  al., 2015). At \r local scales, there have been innovations in cooperative watershed \r protection and water resource planning (Cantu, 2016). Indigenous \r [...]"


id: 479cbb9fbb10668507bd82f9828087da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9821
content:
"[...] Peoples are playing an increasing role in identifying equitable and \r resilient options for adaptation by contributing their knowledge and \r voicing their perspectives on the importance of healthy water bodies \r for human and environmental well-being (Norton-Smith et al., 2016a; \r Water and Tribes Initiative, 2020). Collaboration between stakeholders, \r policymakers and scientists is increasingly common in water resources \r adaptation planning and assessment."


id: 50ba4c3a392c894fd0963e66e0444a30
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11475
content:
"Water serves a wide variety of environmental functions and human \r uses as it moves through North America's river basins, so the impacts \r of climate change are expected to be widespread and multifaceted. \r This increases the importance of collaborative adaptation efforts \r that are equitable, transparent and give voice to differing values, \r perspectives and entitlements across a broad socioeconomic spectrum \r of urban and rural, Indigenous and non-Indigenous participants \r (Miller et  al., 2016; Cosens et  al., 2018). Adaptation planning may \r be hampered by conflicting interests, jurisdictional boundaries and \r inherent interconnections between actions and impacts at different \r points throughout a watershed or river basin. Differential power \r relationships, decision-making authority and access to information \r also can interfere with effective adaptive governance, while equitable \r processes for decision making bolstered by reliable shared information \r [...]"


id: c073a6af65bf50b513267c3ab686f62b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31159
content:
"[...] can help to overcome those impediments (Cosens et al., 2016; Arnold \r et al., 2017; Cosens et al., 2018; Porter and Birdi, 2018)."


id: 4b9116ab261fcf016286e279e9b4fc26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10558
content:
"Without adaptation, climate change is projected to reduce overall \r yields of important North American crops (e.g., wheat, maize, \r soybeans) (high confidence) (Tables SM14.3, SM14.4; Chen et  al., \r 2017; Levis et al., 2018). For example, projected heat stress (RCP8.5) \r reduced mid-century (2040-2069) maize and cotton yields by 12-\r 15% of historical yields (1950-2005), with the US-SW suffering the \r largest impacts (Table SM14.5; Elias et al., 2018). Warming and heat \r extremes will delay or prevent chill accumulation, affecting perennial \r crop development (e.g., fruit set failure), yield (e.g., walnuts, pistachios, \r stone fruit) and quality (e.g., grapes) (medium confidence) (Parker \r et al., 2020). Warming will alter the length of growing seasons of cold\u0002season crops (e.g., broccoli, lettuce) and will shift suitability ranges \r of warm-season California crops (e.g., tomatoes) (medium confidence) \r (Marklein et al., 2020). Increasing atmospheric CO2 will enhance yields \r [...]"


id: cfd3b325139ce4cbab98c9915d92cc2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33920
content:
"[...] yet reduce nutrient content of many crops (high confidence); a CO2\r concentration of 541 ppm (seen by 2050 in RCP8.5) would reduce \r per-capita nutrient availability in North American diets by 2.5-4.0% \r (Beach et al., 2019). Crop pest and pathogen outbreaks are expected to \r worsen under climate change (high confidence) (Deutsch et al., 2018; \r Wolfe et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019a)."


id: dc70a273c6296f39be19c12561fc8f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36049
content:
"Research on water diplomacy recommends broadening negotiations \r beyond a narrow focus on zero-sum issues, like rigid water allocations, \r to embrace a more diverse set of shared interests including the need \r for flexibility to respond to changing conditions. A process for ongoing \r inclusive engagement of a watershed's stakeholders in mutual social, \r policy and science learning is important. Such mutual learning can build \r trust and establish a common platform of credible information for co\u0002creation of adaptation solutions. In addition, better understanding of \r the policy positions and constraints of others can help stakeholders to \r identify workable solutions to contentious water management issues \r (Payne, 2020; Wilder et al., 2020). Cooperation between Mexico and \r the USA on mapping and assessment of transboundary aquifers is a \r product of such ongoing engagement (Callegary et al., 2018; Sanchez \r et al., 2018). Other examples of the benefits of sustained engagement \r [...]"


id: 3d539f24436107f8c7d32870dc55113a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7967
content:
"[...] are provided by a set of co-management arrangements between \r state, federal and Indigenous authorities on water management for \r fishery restoration in the US Pacific Northwest (Tsatsaros et al., 2018) \r and Indigenous involvement in multi-level co-management of water \r resources in Canada's Northwest Territories (Latta, 2018)."


id: 857314f24ea805bc83a750297835a404
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20617
content:
"Climate change is anticipated to cause declines in livestock production \r across North America (high confidence) (Table 14.4; SM14.6; Havstad \r et  al., 2018; Murray-Tortarolo et  al., 2018). Increases in extreme \r temperature raise the risk of livestock heat stress, disease and pest \r impacts (Rojas-Downing et al., 2017). Projected aridification reduces \r forage production in the southwest USA and northern Mexico (high \r confidence) (Polley et  al., 2013; Reeves et  al., 2014; Cooley, 2016; \r Bradford et al., 2020) and transforms grasslands into woody shrublands \r (Briske et al., 2015; Murray-Tortarolo et al., 2018), while warmer and \r wetter conditions in the northern regions (CA-PR, US-NW, US-NP) may \r enhance rangeland production by extending growing seasons (high \r confidence) (Hufkens et  al., 2016; Derner et  al., 2018; Zhang et  al., \r 2019a). Increased CO2 will enhance production (medium confidence) \r but reduce forage quality (high confidence) in US-NP and US-NW \r [...]"


id: d9dd00b3263691b69c23f6fddf225cf8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35628
content:
"Climate change has affected crops across North America through \r changes in growing seasons and regions, extreme heat, precipitation, \r water stress and soil quality (Table 14.1; Figure 14.5; Section 5.4.1; \r Figure 5.3) (Mann and Gleick, 2015; Galloza et al., 2017; Otkin et al., \r 2018). These changes directly influence crop productivity, quality \r and market price (high confidence) (Kistner et al., 2018; Reyes and \r Elias, 2019). Effects of historical climate change on maize, soybean, \r barley and wheat crop yields vary from strong increases to strong \r decreases (e.g., > -0.5 to > +0.5 t ha-1 yr-1 for maize) within North \r America's agroecological regions, even for the same crop (Ray et al., \r 2019). Across North America, climate change has generally reduced \r agricultural productivity by 12.5% since 1961, with progressively \r greater losses moving south from Canada to Mexico (Ortiz-Bobea \r et  al., 2021), yet responses are highly differential across regions \r [...]"


id: 832cc4eefd69c1ce2cd842c1c60900fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20201
content:
"[...] and crops. Some crop loss events are partially attributed to climate \r change (high confidence) such as the 2012 Midwest and Great Plains \r drought, which cost agriculture 30 billion USD (Smith and Matthews, \r 2015; Rupp et al., 2017). Aridity is extending northward, altering crop \r suitability ranges (Figure 14.4); up to 50% of distributional shifts in \r growing regions for US crops between 1970 and 2010 may be related "


id: 6d31dd4826c26601aee736fd5cd2f455
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16489
content:
"Climate-change impacts on forests (Section  14.5.1; see Box  14.2) \r may affect timber production by altering tree species distributions, \r productivity, and wildfire and insect disturbances (medium confidence). \r Southern or drier locations may shift from forests to other vegetation \r types, whereas higher-latitude areas may experience forest expansion \r (Brecka et al., 2018). Tree species composition is projected to change \r with climate change (Wang et al., 2015; Bose et al., 2017). Tree growth \r may increase or decrease from changes in temperature or moisture \r depending on location, with lower growth expected from warming \r in water-limited areas (Littell et  al., 2010). Increased productivity \r associated with more favourable climate conditions is projected for \r boreal forests (Brecka et al., 2018), although in some regions, growth \r will reverse and decline with additional warming (D'Orangeville et al., \r 2018; Chaste et al., 2019). As a result of these changes, timber yields \r [...]"


id: f2f5cdde5bba49d6e0624d7612f013f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40134
content:
"[...] in North America either may increase in the future (Beach et al., 2015; \r EPA, 2015a) or decrease (Boulanger et al., 2014; McKenney et al., 2016; "


id: db785444d5daa62e29804d7c5d799f20
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35889
content:
"Declines in yield and poleward stock redistributions (an average \r of ~20.6 km per decade) are expected to continue under climate \r change and increase in magnitude with atmospheric carbon (high \r confidence) (Table 14.4; Hare et al., 2016; Pecl et al., 2017; Rheuban \r et al., 2017; Morley et al., 2018; Smale et al., 2019; Szuwalski et al., \r 2021). For example, without adaptation, end-of-century losses of \r Bering Sea pollock yield (relative to persistence scenarios) is likely to \r reach 50% under moderate (RCP4.5) and 80% under low (RCP8.5) \r mitigation scenarios, respectively (Holsman et  al., 2020). Expanding \r HABs, pathogens and altered ocean chemistry (OA and dissolved \r oxygen) will reduce yields and increase closures of fisheries along all \r North American coasts (medium confidence) (Section 14.5.2; Deutsch \r et al., 2015a; Ekstrom et al., 2015; Seung et al., 2015; Punt et al., 2016; \r Howard et al., 2020). For fisheries that represent 56% of current US \r [...]"


id: 5d1c5e5255629bf65dd0dd6b3e17e108
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13653
content:
"[...] fishing revenue, projected annual net losses under high-emission \r scenarios (RCP8.5, 2021-2100) may reach double that of low-emission \r scenarios (RCP2.6) (Moore et al., 2021)."


id: a1970c7a2f6c8e0e8561eddfe00117b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25647
content:
"Climate impacts outlined in Section 14.5.2 have induced yield losses \r for multiple subsistence, recreational and commercial fisheries \r (very high confidence), and contributed to commercial fishery \r closures across North America (Sections 14.5.1, 14.5.3; Figure 14.6; \r Table SM14.7; Lynn et al., 2014; Barbeaux et al., 2020; Fisher et al., \r 2021). Climate-driven declines in productivity are widespread (high \r confidence) (Figure 14.6), although a few increases are observed in \r northern regions (medium confidence) (Cunningham et  al., 2018; \r Crozier et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019b). Redistribution of species \r has increased travel distance to fishing grounds, shifted stocks across \r regulatory and international boundaries, and increased interactions \r with protected species (very high confidence) (Figure  14.6; \r Table  SM14.7; Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5; \r Morley et  al., 2018; Free et  al., 2019; IPCC, 2019b; Rogers et  al., \r [...]"


id: 42cadb163bdabbf259203341b20eeeaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8946
content:
"2018; Wolfe et  al., 2018). Traditional agriculture inherently includes \r climate adaptive practices that enhance biodiversity, soil quality and \r agricultural production (e.g., multiple cultivars, heat-tolerant heritage \r cattle breeds) (Bermeo et  al., 2014; Gomez-Aiza et  al., 2017; Ortiz\u0002Colon et  al., 2018). Agroecology and agroforestry (see Box  14.7) in \r North America has expanded from (but not replaced) traditional and \r rural practices in Mexico (Metcalfe et al., 2020a) as a sustainable and \r climate-resilient alternative to industrial agriculture (Schoeneberger \r et  al., 2017) that increases productivity (by 6-65% depending on \r the crop), enhances microclimates and provides co-benefits for GHG \r mitigation (Abbas et al., 2017; Cardinael et al., 2017; Schoeneberger \r et al., 2017; Snapp et al., 2021). Irrigation is an effective adaptation \r strategy in key agricultural areas (Miller, 2017; Lund et al., 2018) and \r [...]"


id: fc26cb9da9ca1fc6349fe07019ffbe51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41728
content:
"[...] could stabilise food security in rain-fed regions (e.g., southeast Mexico) \r (Spring, 2014); water allocation must balance multiple needs and rights \r (medium confidence) (Section 14.5.3; Brown et al., 2015b; Levis et al., \r 2018; Gomez Diaz et al., 2019). Heritage livestock breeds, changing \r species and precision-ranching technology may promote ranch and "


id: 5e6b72775a4793385671a7c50531a8ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13902
content:
"(Hazen et al., 2018) improves modelled fishery performance (medium \r confidence) (Section  14.5.2; Froehlich et  al., 2017; Tommasi et  al., \r 2017a; Tommasi et al., 2017b; Karp et al., 2019; Barbeaux et al., 2020), \r yet planning and policies that directly incorporate climate-change \r information remain limited (Skern-Mauritzen et  al., 2015; Marshall \r et al., 2019b). Expanding aquaculture across North America will likely\r address deficits in nutritional and protein yields (Gentry et al., 2019; \r Costello et al., 2020), yet aquaculture initiatives have largely progressed \r without explicitly considering climate impacts (FAO, 2018; Froehlich \r et al., 2019), and critical elements for climate adaptation (e.g., climate\u0002informed zoning, monitoring, insurance) are not widely implemented \r (Linan-Cabello et al., 2016; FAO, 2018; Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020). \r Climate-informed and standardised aquaculture governance, and \r increased coordination with fishery and coastal management, is \r [...]"


id: 286ae0fa04f2aa48287a0984d5b1d04f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4316
content:
"[...] needed for climate resilience (high confidence) (Brugere et al., 2019; \r Froehlich et al., 2019; Free et al., 2020; Galparsoro et al., 2020)."


id: 5f6c0c748bcd965ae0d95bedfb98461a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall and other extreme events (e.g., \r hurricanes, atmospheric river events) create significant flooding risks \r and impacts for cities in North America and negatively affect the \r lives, livelihoods, economic activities, infrastructure and access to \r services (high confidence) (Amec Foster Wheeler and Credit Valley \r Conservation, 2017; Curry et al., 2019). In 2016, US flooding events \r caused 126 fatalities and 11 billion USD (considering the 2016 USD \r value) in damages (NOAA, 2019). In Canada, flooding accounts for \r 40% of the costs associated with weather-related disasters recorded \r since 1970 (Canadian Institute for Climate Choices, 2020); the most \r costly event was the 2013 Calgary flood (CA-PR) (1.8 billion CAD in \r catastrophic insurance losses and 6 billion CAD in direct costs such \r as uninsured losses) (Office of the Auditor General of Canada, 2016). \r Mexico City is seasonally impacted by high-intensity rainfall events \r [...]"


id: 2c8058ee22fe2a2af771f33fdd5bd136
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] that generate local flooding (de Alba and Castillo, 2014). Rural and \r remote settlements are also threatened by floods; Indigenous lands in \r Canada are disproportionately exposed to flooding, with almost 22% \r of residential properties at risk of a 1-in-100-year flood (Thistlethwaite \r et al., 2020; Yumagulova, 2020)."


id: a267de20501c86b52ee9ee245cb24cf8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25794
content:
"Cities are complex social-ecological systems with large populations, \r concentrated wealth, ageing infrastructure, reliance on extrinsic and \r increasingly stressed natural systems, social inequality, differential \r institutional capacities and impervious, heat-retaining surfaces \r (Maxwell et  al., 2018a; Schell et  al., 2020). These factors interact \r with location (e.g., proximity to coast, in a floodplain) to create \r city-specific vulnerabilities to climate change and requirements for \r resilience initiatives (Mercer Clarke et al., 2016). Cities are home to \r diverse cultural and social communities, including large Indigenous \r populations who can be uniquely affected by climate change yet who \r bring valuable IK and leadership to urban adaptation efforts (Statistics \r Canada, 2020; Brown et al., 2021). The rural and remote settlements of \r North America also experience similar hazards and risks; however, such \r [...]"


id: 16e9d67c8fc10ef202412880d1fbd0eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1253
content:
"[...] challenges are due to different factors such as geographic isolation, \r dependence on local food resources and socioeconomic conditions \r (Kearney and Bell, 2019; Vodden and Cunsolo, 2021)."


id: 68b9340c7ae2d49b7174d3deb016b444
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15692
content:
"Extreme heat events are affecting natural assets and built infrastructure \r as well as individuals in cities and rural settlements across North \r America (high confidence) (Maria Raquel et  al., 2016; Amec Foster \r Wheeler and Credit Valley Conservation, 2017; Howell and Brady, \r 2019; Martinich and Crimmins, 2019). Key urban infrastructure systems \r (e.g., services in buildings, energy distribution) are interdependent and \r susceptible to cascading impacts (e.g., electricity supply disruption \r during a heatwave compromising another system like water delivery, \r high-rise cooling) (Brown et  al., 2021). Urban social inequality and \r systemic racism has led to disproportionately higher exposure to urban \r heat island effects in low-income and minority neighbourhoods in US \r cities, due in part, to less green space and tree cover to offset heat \r retained in the built environment (Hoffman et al., 2020; Schell et al., \r [...]"


id: fb3a1c2a0fe0dafdfca9aa48f6daa16c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] 2020; Hsu et al., 2021). In the rural context, extreme heat contributes \r to migration out of small communities; for example, see cases reported \r in Mexico (Nawrotzki et  al., 2015a). Extreme heat events pose a "


id: 68da4337674c4f224dd2374267d93e14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In the USA, many people are projected to be at risk of flooding \r from SLR (high confidence) (see Box 14.4). A projected SLR of 0.9 m \r by 2100 could place 4.2  million people at risk of inundation in US \r coastal counties, whereas a 1.8-m SLR exposes 13.1  million people \r (Hauer et al., 2016). In California, under an extreme 2-m SLR by 2100, \r 150  billion USD (2010) of property or more than 6% of the state's \r GDP and 600,000 people could be affected by flooding (Barnard \r et  al., 2019). A 1-m SLR would inundate 42% of the Albemarle\u0002Pamlico Peninsula in North Carolina and incur property losses of up \r to 14 billion USD (considering the 2016 USD value) (Bhattachan et al., \r 2018). In nine southeast US states, a 1-m SLR would result in the loss \r of more than13,000 recorded historical and archaeological sites with \r over 1000 eligible for inclusion in the National Register for Historic \r Places (Anderson et al., 2017). This SLR raises groundwater levels by \r [...]"


id: 9ac26e47bd676f06b354e91bc8104788
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24469
content:
"[...] impeding drainage and enhancing runoff during rain events (Hoover \r et al., 2017); coastal flooding enhances saltwater intrusion affecting \r drinking water supply in settlements (e.g., coast of Texas) (Anderson \r and Al-Thani, 2016)."


id: cb00a3c5ee08bff8c189d62ad9b6710c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33054
content:
"Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and \r intensity across North America in the coming decades (Section 14.2.2; \r Figure 14.2F,G). Inland urban areas in the southern and eastern USA \r are susceptible to urban heat island effects, particularly the Midwest/\r Great Lakes regions (Krayenhoff et  al., 2018) and also Mexico City \r and many other cities in Mexico (Vargas and Magana, 2020). Climate \r change (RCP8.5) interacting with urban form, development and \r systemic racism (Schell et  al., 2020; Hsu et  al., 2021) could worsen \r risks from extreme heat in North American cities, especially where \r there is limited adaptation (high confidence) (Krayenhoff et al., 2018). \r Impacts from extreme heat will be exacerbated when multiple hazards \r occur simultaneously (e.g., heatwaves concurrent with droughts) \r (Mora et  al., 2018; Zscheischler et  al., 2018). Extreme heat events \r increase energy demand for space cooling in buildings, especially \r [...]"


id: 4e61226632e8b7a3e9ea8571ba5351f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] during peak demand periods and heatwaves (IEA, 2018a). This can \r decrease cooling efficiency, increase emissions of GHG from electricity \r generation, increase refrigerant loads and associated emissions, and \r negatively affect air quality (IEA, 2018a). Major electrical grid failure \r (i.e., blackouts) have increased across the USA and will continue to \r be particularly dangerous for human health when they coincide with \r extreme heat events (Stone et al., 2021). Efforts to increase resilience \r of the infrastructure that cities rely on are increasing (Climate-Safe \r Infrastructure Working Group, 2018)."


id: c86c4f07981e45152c6860c8206702ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32570
content:
"Other adaptation responses to reduce temperature effects include \r modifying structures (roofs, engineered materials) and the urban \r landscape through green infrastructure (e.g., urban trees, wetlands, \r green roofs), which increases climate resilience and quality of life \r by reducing urban heat island effects, while additionally improving \r air quality, capturing stormwater and delivering other co-benefits \r to the community (e.g., access to food, connection to nature, social \r connectivity) (high confidence) (see Box 14.7; Ballinas and Barradas, \r 2016; Emilsson and Sang, 2017; Kabisch et al., 2017; Krayenhoff et al., \r 2018; Petrovic et al., 2019; Schell et al., 2020). Green infrastructure can \r be flexible and cost-effective (Ballinas and Barradas, 2016; Emilsson \r and Sang, 2017; Kabisch et al., 2017). Initiatives can be 'bottom-up' \r community-led adaptation with support from municipal governments \r (e.g., East Harlem in New York City) (Petrovic et  al., 2019). Valuing \r [...]"


id: 8fff5933d702d6f2f2f31386c07a6d74
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22537
content:
"[...] municipal natural assets (e.g., assigning economic value to cooling \r from urban forests or stormwater retention by urban wetlands) is \r becoming increasingly common in Canada and the USA (Wamsler, \r 2015; Roberts et  al., 2017a; Municipal Natural Assets Initiative, \r 2018). Guidance assists municipalities to identify, value and account \r for natural assets in their financial planning and asset management \r programmes (O'Neil and Cairns, 2017) and consider future climate \r (Municipal Natural Assets Initiative, 2018)."


id: eb2fbe706a105a418f1b189f61840681
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38733
content:
"In North American cities, present-day adaptation responses extend \r beyond the traditional focus on infrastructure to include measures \r aimed to protect people, property and ecosystems (medium confidence). \r Barriers to adaptation include challenges related to the local physical \r and environmental setting, effects of colonialism and racism, \r socioeconomic attributes of the population, institutional frameworks \r and competing interests of city stakeholders (medium confidence). \r The current scale of adaptation is generally not commensurate with \r reducing risks from projected climatic hazards, although resources exist \r that provide guidance and examples of effective adaptation (medium \r confidence). Some remote Canadian communities have demonstrated \r strengths (e.g., strong social networks) that support resilience to \r climate change (Kipp et  al., 2020; Vodden and Cunsolo, 2021). In \r some US cities with political resistance to action on climate change, \r [...]"


id: 86aa743882ea358ad839858b7b6e2221
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] adaptation measures focused on addressing extreme events (rather \r than climate-change impacts) have been able to make progress (Hamin \r et  al., 2014). Enhanced public awareness of the risks from extreme \r events associated with climate change is important for motivating \r adaptation (Section 14.3; Howe et al., 2019) and developing a climate\u0002change agenda (Aragon-Durand, 2020)."


id: c59e68a5ee479b30e3c8f4830ee72d20
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32071
content:
"Approximately 95 million Americans lived in coastal communities in 2017 (US Census Bureau, 2019) and in 2013, Canada had roughly \r 6.5 million coastal residents (Lemmen et al., 2016), while Mexico had 19 million people living in coastal municipalities in 2015 (Azuz\u0002Adeath et al., 2018). Sea level rise around North American coastlines (Figure Box 14.4.1) is projected to be greatest along the coasts of \r Atlantic Canada, northern Gulf of Mexico for the USA and the Pacific coast of Mexico (IPCC, 2021). Sections 14.5.2.1, 14.5.5.1.3 and \r 14.5.5.2.3 describe SLR impacts. The status of adaptation to SLR by local governments is variable (see Table Box 14.4.1, where progress \r is indicated by colour coding) and ranges from financed implementation to preliminary, preparatory or scoping studies and workshops. \r Adaptation planning and implementation to address SLR and coastal flooding have been initiated across many cities and settlements in \r [...]"


id: e3f58d378fd8642ef32f1f29392fc260
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37395
content:
"urban flooding, erosion and harmful runoff (Kovacs et al., 2014; Angel \r et al., 2018b; Government of Canada, 2021c). Structural approaches \r have limitations and require trade-offs that could be addressed with \r a focus on social-ecological solutions and stronger institutional \r coordination (e.g., flood risk management in Mexico City) (Aragon\u0002Durand, 2020). In response to high-intensity rainfall events, Mexico \r City invested in stormwater infrastructure, although additional benefits \r could have been realised if water supply needs had been incorporated \r (de Alba and Castillo, 2014). Some programmes exist to facilitate \r stormwater and wastewater infrastructure updating to accommodate \r increased precipitation across North America. The US federal Clean \r Water State Revolving Fund provides low-interest loans for states \r to upgrade infrastructure for climate change, with 42  billion USD \r provided since 1987 (ASCE, 2019). In Canada, local governments are \r [...]"


id: 6a8f071cd3db31c8c05d6daa2049a8bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] important leaders in managing engineered and green infrastructure \r decisions, incentivising property-level flood protection and ensuring \r service delivery (Government of Canada, 2021c). The civil engineering \r profession is playing an active role in facilitating an understanding \r of risks and prioritisation of adaptation investments in communities \r (Tye and Giovannettone, 2021).The high concentration of valuable \r assets in cities requires mechanisms to facilitate replacement of \r assets including use of existing and proposed insurance mechanisms \r (medium confidence) (Section 14.7)."


id: 66c610ebf007719fca6e5377969f4266
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15348
content:
"mortality related to cold temperatures and mortality due to other \r factors that vary with season (Ebi and Mills, 2013; Ebi, 2015). Warmer \r temperatures do not always equate to lower winter mortality: many \r cold-related deaths do not occur during the coldest times of year or in \r the coldest places (high confidence) but occur during the beginning or \r end of the winter season (Barnett et al., 2012; Lee et al., 2014; Schwartz \r et al., 2015; Sarofim et al., 2016b; Smith and Sheridan, 2019). Warmer \r US cities generally experience more mortality from extreme cold events \r and cold temperatures than colder cities in the USA and Canada (Lee \r et al., 2014; Gasparrini et al., 2015; Schwartz et al., 2015; Wang et al., \r 2016; Smith and Sheridan, 2019). While mortality rates linked to direct \r cold exposure (e.g., hypothermia, falls and fractures) is generally low, \r the relatively higher mortality during milder temperatures is thought to \r [...]"


id: b94b434bdddacfeccd6262f1035e1306
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29810
content:
"[...] be largely due to respiratory infections and cardiovascular impacts (Lee \r et al., 2014; Gasparrini et al., 2015), which, although correlated with \r temperature, may not be caused by cold temperatures (Ebi and Mills, \r 2013; Ebi, 2015; Sarofim et al., 2016a). When separating the effects \r of cold temperatures from the effects of the winter season, one study \r found that cold temperature did not drive mortality and suggested that \r winter season excess mortality was due to seasonal factors other than \r temperature (e.g., influenza, seasonal gatherings) (Kinney et al., 2015)."


id: 97309d44141862ba88cc496d698f760e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23793
content:
"Climate change creates conditions that enable earlier seasonal \r activity and general northern expansion of ticks (Ogden et al., 2014), \r increasing human exposure to tick-borne diseases in North America \r (very high confidence). Lyme disease incidence and geographic extent \r has already increased in Canada and the USA (Eisen et  al., 2016), \r which has been associated with climate change (Ogden et al., 2014), \r including warmer temperatures (Cheng et al., 2017; Lin et al., 2019). \r Climate change is projected to increase disease spread into new \r geographic regions, lengthen the season of disease transmission and \r increase tick-borne disease risk in North America across emissions \r scenarios throughout this century (very high confidence), with regional \r variability (Roy-Dufresne et  al., 2013; Feria-Arroyo et  al., 2014; \r Monaghan et al., 2015; Robinson et al., 2015; McPherson et al., 2017). \r Chagas disease is transmitted by triatomines, and most of the Mexican \r [...]"


id: ead699cde55f6b263754b3a1f306eb24
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] population (88.9%) already reside in areas with at least one infected \r vector species in both rural and urban populations (Carmona-Castro \r et al., 2018). Chagas has already extended its range into the southern \r USA, and the triatomines' niche is projected to expand northward this \r century (Garza et al., 2014; Carmona-Castro et al., 2018) in both rural \r and urban areas (Carmona-Castro et al., 2018)."


id: e41e5eba28a3cbd2239bec9e16bf23fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37435
content:
"In North America, stormwater and water treatment infrastructure \r play important roles in reducing water-borne disease risk during \r precipitation events (high confidence). In the USA, heavy precipitation \r events are associated with higher rates of childhood gastrointestinal \r illness in municipalities with untreated drinking water, but not in \r municipalities with treated drinking water (Uejio et  al., 2014). In \r Mexico, disparities in access to treated water are a key determinant of \r morbidity in children under age 5 years (Jimenez-Moleon and Gomez\u0002Albores, 2011; Romero-Lankao et al., 2014a). In remote communities \r in Alaska and Northern Canada, challenges in water service provision \r and maintenance can increase risk of water-borne disease during high\u0002impact weather events (Harper et al., 2011; Bressler and Hennessy, 2018; \r Harper et al., 2020). In older sections of many North American cities, \r sewage treatment plant capacity is exceeded by overflow of combined \r [...]"


id: 46575d1d102d006c654f25700850214e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9597
content:
"[...] sanitary and storm sewer systems during heavy precipitation events, \r resulting in bypass of untreated and microbiologically contaminated \r wastewater discharge into drinking water sources (Jagai et al., 2017; \r Olds et al., 2018; Staley et al., 2018). These sewer overflow events are \r associated with increased gastrointestinal illness across age groups \r (Jagai et al., 2017)."


id: df9cbb7b58d136c2da7f9662b445de04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36590
content:
"Winter tourism activities with hard limits to adaptation, particularly \r those that occur at sea level where less precipitation is expected to \r fall as snow (i.e., Nordic skiing, snowmobiling, snowshoeing), are at \r the highest risk from climate change and may experience irreversible \r impacts well before 2degC of warming above pre-industrial levels (high \r confidence) (Figure  14.9). During record warm winters, alpine ski \r resorts in eastern Canada experienced reductions in ski season lengths \r of between 11 and 17 d (Rutty et al., 2017) and resorts in the northeast \r USA (US-NE) experienced decreased skier visits by 11.6% and \r reductions in operational profits of 33% amounting to 40-52 million \r USD (Dawson et  al., 2009). Even with advanced snowmaking as an \r adaptation to warmer temperatures, average ski season lengths are \r projected to decrease 8% (RCP2.6, 2050s) to 73% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in \r Ontario, Canada (CA-ON) (Scott et al., 2019b), 12% (RCP4.5, 2050s) to \r [...]"


id: bb4d4352930c97ee5454b4617a2a2338
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] 22% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in Quebec, Canada (CA-QC), and 13% (RCP4.5, \r 2050s) to 45% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in the northeast USA (US-NE) (Wobus \r et al., 2017; Scott et al., 2020). Season length for snowmobiling and \r cross-country skiing is projected to decrease more dramatically (high \r confidence), that is, by 80% (RCP4.5) to 100% (RCP8.5) by mid-century \r (CCP5; Wobus et al., 2017). The number of outdoor skating days may \r decrease by 34% in Toronto and Montreal, and 19% in Calgary, by \r 2090 under RCP8.5 (Robertson et al., 2015). The skating season length \r for the Rideau Canal in Ottawa, Canada, a UNESCO World Heritage Site \r attracting 1.3 million visitors annually, may decrease by 3.8+-2.0 d per \r decade with later opening dates of 2.6+-1.5 d per decade (Jahanandish \r and Alireza, 2019)."


id: f909d3bfd72ab575bd0257791eba89ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41178
content:
"strategies to reduce climate risks as significant and widespread \r impacts are not expected until 3degC-4degC of warming (Figure  14.9; \r Rutty and Scott, 2015; Atzori et al., 2018; Santos-Lacueva et al., 2018; \r Duro and Turrion-Prats, 2019). Thirty percent of hotels along the Gulf \r of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are exposed to flooding and 66% are \r located on eroding beaches (Lithgow et al., 2019). Coral reef cover in \r Akumal Bay, Mexico, decreased by 79% between 2011 and 2014 (Gil \r et al., 2015; Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015). The recreation value \r of coral reef tourism in Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii is expected to \r decrease by 90% by mid-century under RCP8.5 (Section 14.4.2; EPA, \r 2017). Wildfires and insect outbreaks have contributed to reduced \r desirability for tourism across forest and mountain regions (Bawa, \r 2017; Hestetune et  al., 2018; White et  al., 2020). Visitors to Utah's \r National Parks declined 0.5-1.5% during wildfire years between \r [...]"


id: ae135c2e92611b02923d0d58939b8f2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27867
content:
"[...] 1993 and 2015, resulting in 2.7-4.5 million USD in lost revenue (see \r Box 14.2; Kim and Jakus, 2019). Trees damaged by insects have caused \r campground and hiking trail closures in the western USA and Alaska \r (Arnberger et  al., 2018). Seal level rise, flooding, coastal erosion, \r changing air and sea temperatures, changing humidity and extreme \r weather events are putting cultural heritage sites at risk (Fatoric and \r Seekamp, 2017; Hollesen et al., 2018; Tetu et al., 2019)."


id: 9c72aaf414482d95b016c840de6223e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24777
content:
"Hard and soft limits to adaptation exist in the tourism sector (Manuel\u0002Navarrete and Pelling, 2015). For example, machine-made snow, without \r the use of environmentally harmful chemical additives that are banned \r in most jurisdictions, can only be made efficiently in temperatures \r below -2degC, but projections indicate warming temperatures above this \r threshold (Wobus et al., 2017; Scott et al., 2019a). Multi-jurisdictional \r adaptation planning for parks and protected areas in the USA has \r been hindered by a lack of funding and communication, and funding \r trade-offs that could be remedied through coordination (Lemieux \r et al., 2015). Social inequalities generated by the tourism development \r process must also be considered by climate-related interventions to \r prevent the perpetuation of inequalities that may exist, particularly in \r less developed regions and rapidly developing regions. For example, \r new developments in Hawaii, Florida, Quebec and popular resort areas \r [...]"


id: cf79b19f7efaa5ddf7fd048630d50fa4
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33856
content:
"[...] in Mexico have led to social inequalities through increased property \r taxes leading to the marginalisation of local residents away from these \r areas in favour of wealthy tourists (Section 14.5.9; Manuel-Navarrete \r and Pelling, 2015)."


id: 1ff3208f43cea608073ca2b19f1524c4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2834
content:
"Cruise and yacht tourism in the North American Arctic have increased \r rapidly over the past decade as changes in sea ice has expanded open\u0002water areas and season length (Johnston et al., 2016; Pizzolato et al., \r 2016; Dawson et al., 2018). The risk of a major accident or incident \r among Arctic-going yachts and some expedition passenger vessels is \r very high relative to other ships (high confidence) due to the combined \r increases in mobile ice, especially along the Northwest Passage (Barber \r et al., 2018a; Howell and Brady, 2019; Copland et al., 2021; Lemmen \r et al., 2021), limited regulation for private yachts (Dawson et al., 2014; \r Dawson et al., 2017), the propensity for cruise ships to travel into newly \r ice-free and poorly charted areas, and the increasing number of non\u0002ice-strengthened vessels operating in the region (Dawson et al., 2018; \r Copland et al., 2019; Copland et al., 2021). Compounding risks include \r [...]"


id: b24a14c5634cc32cd355e08e9e68684f
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"[...] a lack of hydrographic charting and the lack of emergency response \r infrastructure (e.g., spill response, search and rescue, salvage) (Amap, \r 2017). Tourism demand for polar bear viewing in Churchill, Manitoba, \r Canada, may change due to climate-related declines in polar bear \r health (Gil et  al., 2015; Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015), but \r may be offset by 'Last Chance Tourism' (LCT), a niche tourism market \r of individuals who explicitly seek to visit vanishing landscapes and/\r or disappearing flora and fauna (Lemelin et al., 2010). The ethics of \r promoting LCT has been questioned considering that more visitation \r to sensitive sites increases local impacts as well as travel-related \r emissions (Groulx et al., 2016; Groulx et al., 2019)."


id: 5d536a0d0b2725157f7531fc12a56682
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Economic sectors highly reliant on climate, such as agriculture, tourism, \r fisheries and forestry, have higher levels of exposure and sensitivity \r (high confidence) and greater overall risk to climate change compared \r with other economic sectors such as mining, construction and \r manufacturing (medium confidence). However, the cascading nature \r of climate impacts related to trade (see Box 14.5), labour productivity \r (Section 14.5.8.1.5) and infrastructure (Section 14.5.8.1.2) means that \r there is no economic sector in North America that will be unaffected by \r climate change (very high confidence) (Figure 14.10). For Canada, this \r assessment is further supported by the Canadian Climate Assessment \r (Lemmen et al., 2021). The combined economies of Canada, Mexico \r and the USA represented ~28% of the global GDP in 2019, with the \r USA accounting for almost 90% of the total activity for North America \r (World Bank, 2020a). The risks posed at different global warming \r [...]"


id: ecef80649787fc54f3b4bfeb82c8b682
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] levels (GWLs) for any given economic activity or sector are presented \r in Figure  14.10. By combining expert judgement with a systematic \r review of the literature for each sector, the information in Figure 14.10 "


id: bb940443671ab7766d2a54cbb372e95a
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"at risk of flooding from tropical storms (De la Pena et al. 2018). Low \r water levels in the Great Lakes has severely impacted US grain transport \r (Attavanich et al., 2013). High-intensity rain events destroyed 1000 km \r of roads and washed out hundreds of bridges and culverts in 2013 \r resulting in an estimated 6 billion CAD (considering the 2013 CAD value) \r in damages and recovery costs in Alberta, Canada (Palko and Lemmen, \r 2017). In 2019, the rail line from Winnipeg to Churchill Manitoba, which \r is the only ground transportation to the community and to Canada's only \r deep-water Arctic port, was reopened after being closed for over 2 years \r due to the cumulative effects of flooding, permafrost degradation and \r political challenges (Lin et al., 2020). In the USA, the number of heat\u0002related train delays has increased (Bruzek et al., 2013; Chinowsky et al., \r 2019) and, by the end of the century, may cause economic losses of 25-\r [...]"


id: cc2fcc70bfdf232d3a96b4059fc91b3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] 45 billion USD (RCP4.5) or 35-60 billion USD (RCP8.5) (Chinowsky et al., \r 2019). Sea ice reduction in the North American Arctic has led to a rapid \r increase in ship traffic (Huntington et al., 2015; Phillips, 2016; Pizzolato \r et  al., 2016; Huntington et  al., 2021b; Li et  al., 2021) with cascading \r risks related to invasive species introduction, accident rates, black carbon \r emissions, underwater noise pollution for marine mammals and risks to \r subsistence harvesting activities in Indigenous communities (Ware et al., \r 2014; Council of Canadian Academies, 2016; Huntington, 2021; Verna \r et al., 2016; Chan et al., 2019)."


id: 9144b84267ee3cb9c46c77b6c475c4c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"direct damage to buildings, roads, airport runways and other critical \r infrastructure including decreased bearing capacities of building and \r pipeline foundations, damage to road surfaces, and deterioration \r of reservoirs and impoundments used for wastewater and mine \r tailings containment (Pendakur, 2017; Meredith et  al., 2019). Ice \r roads have become less safe due to warming, pavement damage has \r increased related to seasonal thaw-freeze cycles and there have been \r interruptions in airport operations, water and sewage service, and \r school operations in the Canadian territories of Yukon and Nunavut \r (Canadian Western and Eastern Arctic, i.e., CA-WA and CA-EA in \r Figure 14.1) (Council of Canadian Academies, 2019). By the end of the \r century, the economic impact of projected reconstruction of Alaska's \r public infrastructure due to climate change (mainly from permafrost \r thaw) is estimated to range from 4.2 billion USD (RCP4.5) to 5.5 billion \r [...]"


id: 9f8ce866fbbf103f1954311412eaaf76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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content:
"Operational efficiency and human safety at mining and energy production \r sites is expected to be adversely affected by increases in extreme \r events (Section  14.2), including storms, heavy rains, riverine flooding \r and wildfires (high confidence). General remoteness of many mining \r sites (especially in the North American Arctic) exacerbates risks related \r to emergency responses to extreme events such as wildfire (medium \r confidence). The 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire in Alberta, Canada, forced \r the evacuation of 88,000 people and the shutdown of mine operations. \r Damages were minimal because companies had undertaken proactive \r FireSmart interventions specifically developed for the industry (see \r Box  14.1; Council of Canadian Academies, 2019). Onshore oil field \r production in Tabasco, Mexico, which accounts for 16% of the country's \r daily output, was interrupted by extensive flooding (Cruz and Krausmann, \r [...]"


id: 548ad885fee65f001818dd514b10a93c
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"[...] 2013). Two-thirds of mine operators globally, including major operators \r in North America, have experienced production challenges related to \r water shortages and flooding (Carbon Disclosure Project, 2013). Water \r availability stress due to climate change is lower in Canada than in the \r USA and Mexico, and mines in Canada may be less exposed to this risk \r (World Resourcs Institute, 2012) with some exceptions, that is, water\u0002intensive oil sands mining in the Athabasca River basin in Canada \r (Section 14.5.3; Leong and Donner, 2016).Warming temperatures also \r have the potential to alter the nature, characteristics and quality of \r mineral resources such as kaolin or limestone (Phillips, 2016)."


id: 671bd515f3aa9ce15eb7ec13c65361ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"Climate change is negatively affecting working conditions and labour \r productivity in North America (medium confidence) (Section 14.5.6.1; \r see Box  14.5). Working conditions in temperatures above a heat \r index of 85degF (29.4degC) are correlated with potentially hazardous \r health conditions (Tustin et  al., 2018), and for every degree Celsius \r increase in temperature, labour productivity is estimated to be reduced \r by 0.11% for low-risk workers and 0.53% for high-risk workers (i.e., \r construction, mining, agriculture and manufacturing) (Hsiang et  al., \r 2017). By mid-century (RCP8.5), temperature increase, changing water \r availability and SLR are projected to result in a 0.6% drop in labour \r productivity in auto, timber, textile and chemical manufacturing in the \r southeast and Texas regions (Kinniburgh et  al., 2015; Hsiang et  al., \r 2017). Labour productivity in the US automobile industry decreases by \r 8% for every six or more days of consecutive unusually hot weather \r [...]"


id: 4b78d5a155f56a699122fd6cc1ba4e98
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"[...] (above 90degF/32.2degC) (Cachon et al., 2012). Thirty percent of California \r workers are employed in high-risk industries, such as agriculture, with \r exposure to high temperature leading to loss in productivity (Rogers \r et al., 2015). Under RCP8.5 increases in extreme temperatures, labour \r productivity in the USA is projected to decrease, costing 190 billion \r USD in lost wages by 2090 (EPA, 2017; Kjellstrom et al., 2019; also see \r Gubernot et al., 2014; Kiefer et al., 2016; Carter et al., 2018)."


id: 6854dc337807356d735126121860e16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"In the USA, construction workers comprise 6% of the total workforce but \r accounted for 36% of all occupational heat-related deaths from 1992 to \r 2016 (Dong et al., 2019). It is expected that total labour hours among \r outdoor construction workers will decrease by 0.53% (+-0.01%) per \r degree Celsius based on existing warming trends (Hsiang et al., 2017; also \r see EPA, 2017). Risks are expected to be exacerbated as SLR and storm \r surge expands the risk zone for coastal flooding exposing more property \r to inundation and enhancing construction demand (see Box  14.4; \r Section 14.5.5.1.3; EPA, 2017). Meeting existing and projected demand \r for water in affected regions could also require building new desalination \r plants. For example, Texas has constructed over 44 desalination plants \r across the state because of a lack of freshwater to meet potable water \r demand and due to climate-driven droughts (Kloesel et al., 2018b). Other \r [...]"


id: 44138f96927d09419ec962dc631c7d60
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"[...] infrastructure damaged by floods and SLR will need to be reassessed and \r perhaps relocated away from the coast. Relocation requires availability of \r land that frequently does not exist within urban areas (Lithogow, 2019). \r Some US tribes and Indigenous groups in Canada lack the financial \r resources to build climate-resilient infrastructure, such as housing and \r sewage treatment facilities, to assure clean drinking water (Martinez \r et al., 2014; Salgado and Luisa Martinez, 2017; Lithgow et al., 2019)."


id: ac3832685993aa14b687049517dca947
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Adapting building codes more uniformly to changing climate conditions, \r such as SLR, storms, winds and wildfires, reduces risk (Olsen, 2015; \r Maxwell et al., 2018b). North America has not, on the whole, adapted \r its building code regulations to consider the dynamic challenges \r of climate change, although some specific efforts have been made, \r including the addition of requirements for wildfire within California's \r building codes and Canada's climate-resilient building and core public \r infrastructure initiative, which involves updating building codes and \r standards to improve climate resiliency (see Box 14.4; Lacasse et al., \r 2020). To enhance safety, some outdoor workers have been fitted with \r heat sensors to analyse or assess how warming may affect productivity \r and well-being (Runkle et al., 2019). Other options include raising public \r roads and seawalls, initiating buy-outs of property owners in flood risk \r [...]"


id: e289a8a18ec0c22e0e3e06ffee110f4e
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"[...] areas and improving storm water drainage. Adopting approaches like \r the International Future Living Institute's Living Building Challenge \r (LBC) may inform future regulatory processes (Eisenberg, 2016). The \r LBC9 has seven thematic areas that inform building design, although \r only a subset of those are relevant for climate change including water, \r energy and materials considerations."


id: 73b0e5674c75325973aa24715a3cd647
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climate risks may create shocks to the trade system by damaging infrastructure and disrupting supply chains in North \r America (medium confidence). Sea level rise, flooding, permafrost thaw, landslides and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme \r weather events are projected to impact transportation infrastructure which will pose challenges to the movement of goods, especially in \r coastal areas (Lantuit et al., 2012; Dore et al., 2016; Hjort et al., 2018; Koks et al., 2019; Lemmen et al., 2021). Maritime ports are at the \r greatest risk from climate hazards (Messner et al., 2013; Slack and Comtois, 2016), followed by roads, rail and airports (Anarde et al., \r 2017). Due to the transnational nature of trade, extreme weather disruptions in one region are likely to lead to cascading effects in other \r regions (high confidence) (Lemmen et al., 2021). For example, climate change will have negative impacts for global food and energy \r [...]"


id: 7b3cf356874b0222951d95191e4cdcef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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"[...] trade where reductions in crop production and fish stocks in some regions could cause food and fish price spikes elsewhere (Figure 14.10; \r Sections 14.5.4 and 5.11.8; Beaugrand et al., 2015; Lam et al., 2016; IPCC, 2019a)."


id: 753ccbb53ca6a4b460d488dcac7bb20c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:00
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climate-change impacts may alter current trade practices and patterns with implications for regional economic development \r in North America, especially in the Arctic (medium confidence). Climate change is causing modal shifts in cargo shipping. For \r example, lower water levels in lakes and rivers (e.g., Mackenzie River, Mississippi River) impact freight transport and may cause a shift \r from marine transport to more GHG-intensive rail, road or air transport (Koetse and Rietveld, 2009; Du et al., 2017; Pendakur, 2017). \r Sea ice change is creating new Arctic marine trade corridors (Melia et al., 2016; Pizzolato et al., 2016; Ng et al., 2018; Bennett et al., \r 2020; Mudryk et al., 2021), including shorter and potentially more economical routes such as the Northwest Passages (see Box CCP6.1). \r Warming temperatures have also reduced the season length for ice roads, which are heavily relied upon to service remote communities \r [...]"


id: 87c1fcc1c299a775aeb36ad3f9b15f3a
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"Effective and equitable trade policies can act as important adaptation strategies (medium confidence). Higher temperatures \r have had no direct effect on developed countries' exports, but have significantly reduced growth in exports among developing countries, \r which in turn can increase the price of goods that developed countries then import (Costinot et al., 2016; Constant and Davin, 2019). \r Schenker (2013) estimated that the climate impacts on trade from developing to developed countries could be responsible for 16.4% \r of the total expected cost of climate change in the USA in 2100 and, thus, North America would benefit from increased investment in \r effective and equitable trade policies and adaptation in developing regions. Under an RCP8.5 scenario (~2.6-4.8degC warming) and within \r current trade integration, climate change could lead to up to 55 million undernourished people by 2050. These projections decrease \r [...]"


id: ab0d5ddc3877e0c7d0b3f8492c492552
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"[...] by 64% (20 million people) with the introduction of reduced trade tariffs and the lessening of institutional and infrastructure barriers \r (Janssens et al., 2020). Although most studies focus on global food security (i.e., agriculture), it is likely that the same challenges exist for \r other commodities and manufactured goods."


id: dde144c83231dbd5fc397d28ddb19a8a
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"Extreme weather events, including hurricanes, droughts and flooding, and wildfires, have been partly attributed to anthropogenic climate \r change (high confidence) (Table SM 16.21; e.g., Rupp et al., 2015; Emanuel, 2017). Direct, indirect and non-market economic damages \r from extreme events have increased in some parts of North America (high confidence). The number of extreme events with inflation\u0002adjusted damages totalling more than 1 billion USD has risen in the USA over the past decades (NOAA, 2020; Smith, 2020), and similar \r increases have been observed in Canada (Boyd and Markandya, 2021). Factors other than climate change, including increases in exposure \r and the value of the assets at risk, also explain increasing damage amounts (Freeman and Ashley, 2017; Vano et al., 2018). Climate \r change explains a portion of long-term increases in economic damages of hurricanes (limited evidence, low agreement). Studies of US \r [...]"


id: acdcefc9812328f7089ee483e3f8bf2e
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"[...] hurricanes since 1900 have found increasing economic losses that are consistent with an influence from climate change (Estrada et al., \r 2015; Grinsted et al., 2019), although another study found no increase (Weinkle et al., 2018)."


id: ca4b0f9839354c4f89f8c7f69c2c44fb
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"Projections of market and non-market economic damages demonstrate the substantial economic risks of climate impacts associated \r with high-temperature pathways (RCP8.5) (high confidence). Since AR5, a wide range of estimates of the costs of climate change have \r been developed for the USA (EPA, 2015a; Houser et  al., 2015; EPA, 2017; Hsiang et  al., 2017; Martinich and Crimmins, 2019), with \r ongoing processes to update national estimates for Canada and Mexico (Semarnat, 2009; NRTEE, 2011; Estrada et al., 2013; Sawyer \r et al., 2020). While the magnitudes of the estimates depend on approach and assumptions in the methods and expectations of future \r socioeconomic conditions, these studies show substantial projected economic damages across North America by the end of the century, \r especially for warming greater than 4degC (high evidence, high agreement). Whether these damages translate into GDP effects is not clear for \r [...]"


id: cfae5deb3fb7b1ab1684d980a646eb4b
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"[...] Canada. Some modelling approaches show modest GDP increases in 2050 and 2100, while others suggest modest decreases although it \r is anticipated that the economic effects for Canada will be large and negative (Boyd and Markandya, 2021). Large costs and risks, such as \r those associated with extreme events such as wildfires (Hope et al., 2016) and the increased need for infrastructure replacement (Neumann \r et al., 2015; Maxwell et al., 2018a), will have compounding effects in the markets by disrupting economic activities (see Box 14.5)."


id: 6d4eb2ff8ac4106612c21485ab39a054
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"from temporary, seasonal to permanent migration to the warmer \r climates of the southern USA and Mexico, often benefiting from the \r lower cost of living (Dominguez et  al., 2018). Temporary or semi\u0002permanent labour migration, generally followed by remittances, has \r been an important part of livelihoods for rural areas in Mexico (high \r confidence) and has been employed as a response to climate hazards \r (low evidence). Drought in rural areas which are highly dependent on \r subsistence agriculture have observed migration to urban areas in \r Mexico (Nawrotzki et al., 2017). Evidence of international migration \r in response to climate hazards is sparse with difficulties in identifying \r a climate signal due to the multi-causal nature of migration decision \r making (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). There is limited \r evidence of extreme weather events or climate hazards on migration \r from Mexico to the USA (Nawrotzki et  al., 2015b; Nawrotzki et  al., \r [...]"


id: 3e430f137ad0b0e405e7a42d5fc0b1a0
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climate impacts have damaged livelihoods across North America, \r especially those of marginalised people (high confidence) and \r deepened inequalities for these groups (medium confidence). Across \r North America, climate change has affected livelihoods with larger \r effects on individuals, households and communities that are already \r more vulnerable due to a range of pre-existing social and environmental \r stressors (Olsson et al., 2014; Hickel, 2017; Koch et al., 2019) such as \r Indigenous Peoples, urban ethnic minorities and immigrants (Guyot \r et al., 2006; Gronlund, 2014; Klinenberg, 2015). These impacts have \r also contributed to a deepening of inequalities for marginalised groups \r (medium evidence, high agreement) (Audefroy and Cabrera Sanchez, \r 2017; Garcia et  al., 2018). As climate hazards further degrade their \r livelihoods, these groups have faced additional challenges to avoiding \r or escaping poverty (Ruiz Meza, 2014). Furthermore, these groups \r [...]"


id: ed752d4afe330263ce13955c3b3f0c07
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"[...] have needed to use their more limited resources to manage present \r challenges, restricting their future capacities to adapt (Tolentino\u0002Arevalo et al., 2019). Climate impacts have also affected the livelihoods \r of the middle classes (Dominguez et al., 2020) who have become more \r vulnerable due to changes in their social and economic security (Garza\u0002Lopez et al., 2018). Gender has also been recognised as a determinant \r of differential vulnerability with implications for women's livelihoods \r (Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18)."


id: 1652486bff851d101d2491c16c5d07b4
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"Pre-existing social vulnerabilities have also led to forced displacement \r from extreme weather events (low confidence). In the USA, \r compounding effects of SLR and storm surge interacted with pre\u0002existing social vulnerabilities of local communities to generate large\u0002scale displacement after the effects of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans \r in 2005 (Jessoe et al., 2018). The processes of relocation and recovery in \r New Orleans was further shaped by vulnerability where out-migration \r was more likely to be minorities and economically disadvantaged, \r while the recovery was predominantly in neighbourhoods that were \r wealthier prior to the disaster (Fussell et al., 2014; Fussell, 2015). Newer \r evidence from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017 has shown an \r initial spike in displacement with slower recovery with more vulnerable \r communities returning at higher rates (DeWaard et al., 2020); however, \r overall out-migration trends have been consistent with long-term \r [...]"


id: 33aeaf4437e174525cc199dedc4dbaab
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"[...] economic migration (Santos-Lozada et  al., 2020). Interactions of \r slower onset climate hazards with displacement, such as observed \r in Shishmaref, Alaska, have revealed the challenges in attribution of \r migration to climate as it intersects with socioeconomic conditions and \r lived experiences (Marino and Lazrus, 2015)."


id: 7a11ed48173446b1f7ee17458308b8ca
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"Maladaptation has also been occurring in livelihoods, especially as it \r relates to agricultural practices that are less resilient to climate hazards and \r competition for land use (limited evidence, high agreement). Focusing on \r examples in Mexico (see Section 14.5.4.3 for US and Canada examples), \r for some Mexican Indigenous Peoples, the replacement of ancestral \r farming practices with technological adaptations like transgenic crops \r has reduced their resilience by making them more dependent on external \r inputs and more expensive supplies while increasing putting their health \r at risk with herbicide and insecticide use (Mercer et al., 2012). Existing \r power structures have also interacted with climate hazards to generate \r maladaptive outcomes (Quintana, 2013). Mennonite communities in \r the northern state of Chihuahua, Mexico, have pursued commercial \r agricultural markets that lead them to shift to transgenic crops and to \r [...]"


id: d3aa33fd17b2ff326a4e86de6b91fcf7
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34577
content:
"[...] overexploit local groundwater resources in a region experiencing multi\u0002year droughts. These actions have led to conflict with other local farming \r groups with less economic capital to access groundwater (Quintana, \r 2013). Climate mitigation measures may also have adverse effects on \r local livelihoods with implications for adaptive capacity. The Reducing \r Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing \r Countries (REDD+) mitigation programme has been highlighted as a \r trade-off between an international/national carbon mitigation strategy \r and the ability of some Mexican rural communities to improve their food \r security (Section 5.6.3.3; Barbier, 2014)."


id: cf499e17065a436de5e78fd46227fe51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33820
content:
"Climate hazards undermine adaptation by damaging livelihoods \r (high confidence). Many actions that enhance and promote resilient \r livelihoods can have substantial benefit for adaptation to climate \r hazards (medium confidence). Livelihoods in the context of climate \r change are characterised by adjustments that then feed back into \r the assets that comprise a livelihood. Social capital-in the form of \r household and community cohesion-facilitates the development of \r adaptation strategies to the impacts of climate change in rural and \r urban communities at the household level and for small groups (Barbier, \r 2014; Nawrotzki et al., 2015b; Nawrotzki et al., 2015c). Cultural capital, \r especially in the form of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, \r can guide adaptation practices in North America (Akpinar Ferrand and \r Cecunjanin, 2014), preserving Indigenous cultures and enhancing future \r adaptation and resilience (see Box 14.1; Pearce et al., 2012; Audefroy \r [...]"


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"[...] and Cabrera Sanchez, 2017). In Mexico, rainwater harvesting (practised \r by some Mayan communities) and the use of local-traditional varieties \r of maize have assisted in the adaptation to climate impacts and \r promoted food security (Akpinar Ferrand and Cecunjanin, 2014; Hellin \r et al., 2014). Funding and support for these social adaptation strategies \r have been uneven (Barbier, 2014; Romeo-Lankao et al., 2014). The legacy \r of colonialism and historical patterns of development will continue to \r shape the adaptation responses and resiliency of Indigenous Peoples \r (Todd, 2015; Davis and Todd, 2017; Whyte, 2017; Cameron et al., 2019)."


id: 7e1e8dc9742d84a9d1851190d34fca0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Migration is a common adaptation strategy to maintain and diversify \r people's livelihoods and will continue to play an important role \r when households manage climate and social risks (high confidence) \r (Section 7.4.3). In the near term, actions that enhance in situ adaptive \r capacities as well as foster safe and orderly migration can result in \r synergies for both adaptation and development (Cross-Chapter \r Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). Populations that experience less mobility \r or cannot engage in voluntary migration as an adaptation may need \r additional support to adapt to climate hazards, for example, northern \r communities that are at risk of climatic events (Hamilton et al., 2016). \r Policies associated with the transition from high-GHG intensive \r extractive industries, sometimes referred to as 'just transitions', may \r also support in situ livelihoods if they also aim to address and redress \r existing inequalities to reduce vulnerabilities (McCauley, 2018); \r [...]"


id: 914463de3330b93992c30455e12dac42
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"[...] however, these policies could result in maladaptation if they create \r new inequalities or generate other environmental damages."


id: 8250575c79e99e0ee9d51a3e88190c39
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Crime, including violent crime, has been associated with higher \r temperatures in the USA (medium confidence). Studies of crime \r statistics in the USA have revealed a relationship between temperature \r and a range of violent crimes including aggravated assaults, rapes and \r homicides; effects for property crimes are weaker (limited evidence, \r medium agreement) (Ranson, 2014; Houser et  al., 2015; Heilmann \r and Kahn, 2019; Mares and Moffett, 2019). These effects have been \r observed in US urban centres (Hsiang et al., 2013; Mares, 2013; Ranson, \r 2014; Schinasi and Hamra, 2017; Heilmann and Kahn, 2019) and more \r generally across the USA (Mares and Moffett, 2019). Differential effects \r have also been observed within urban areas. Observed higher rates \r of domestic and intimate partner violence during periods of high heat \r in less affluent neighbours in Los Angeles have been associated with \r disparities in access to air conditioning and greenery (Heilmann et al., \r [...]"


id: bacfd0bf3359fe9862be59f368044086
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] 2021). By contrast, Lynch et al. (2020a) found no significant correlation \r between annual homicide rate and annual temperature for New York City \r (Lynch et al., 2020b). For Mexico, Burke et al. (2018a) found temperature \r linkages with intergroup killings by drug-trafficking organisations, \r homicides and suicides. No linkages between temperature and crime \r have been reported for Canada. Differences in spatial and temporal \r aggregation of the crime statistics as well as in the measure of climate \r change or variability explain some of the differences between studies. \r Several causal pathways can explain these relationships (Miles-Novelo \r and Anderson, 2019; Lynch et al., 2020b). The dominant theory is that \r weather changes result in changes in behavioural patterns that lead to \r more opportunities for crimes. For example, studies that disaggregate \r by month often report significant positive associations between \r [...]"


id: b4fb65a052adc9d20fb66be640a7d567
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 29079
content:
"[...] temperature anomalies and violent crime (especially aggravated \r assaults, rapes and homicides), particularly in the cold season (Harp \r and Karnauskas, 2018; Mares and Moffett, 2019). Smaller increases in \r crime during positive warm-season temperature anomalies may be due \r to people seeking shelter in cooler indoor spaces, decreasing crimes of \r opportunity (Section 7.2.7; Gamble and Hess, 2012)."


id: aa3055f10de02b9000796029a99d6d9c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Climate change poses risks to peace (Section 16.5.2.3.8) that \r could affect North America (medium confidence). Military and \r security communities are adapting their planning, operations and \r infrastructure to current impacts of climate change in North America \r and globally (medium agreement, medium evidence). Arctic nations \r are renewing their military capacity and expanding their constabulary \r presence around their existing boundaries (Choi, 2020). There is \r increasing awareness that climate change causes weather patterns \r and extreme events that directly harm military installations and \r readiness through infrastructure damage, loss of utilities, and loss of \r operational capability (Duffy-Anderson et  al., 2019). Transboundary \r disputes and competition over resources, such as fish (Osthagen, \r 2020), are a concern in the changing Arctic and increases in military \r and constabulary operations are being observed (Jonsson et al., 2012; \r [...]"


id: 1310d304e93e2747f2baba0c832b3551
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Projections of future crime derived from the empirical relation\u0002ships between temperature and crime in the USA show the \r potential for increased criminality under RCP8.5 compared with \r RCP4.5 (low confidence). For RCP8.5, holding all socioeconomic \r conditions at 2015 levels, violent crime could increase 0.6-2.1% by \r mid-century and 1.9-4.5% by late century (Houser et al., 2015). The \r rise in property crime is projected to be smaller as property crime \r flattens at higher temperatures (Hsiang et al., 2013). Using relation\u0002ships between crime and monthly temperatures established for five \r US regions by Harp and Karnauskas (2018), Harp and Karnauskas \r (2020) project 18,800 additional violent crimes annually beyond 2014 \r levels by the end of the 21st century under 1.5degC warming, rising to \r 48,200 under 4degC warming. Aggregating data by states weighted by \r [...]"


id: ed25024440edc3e8722a65996f7e0aff
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content:
"[...] population density, Mares and Moffett (2019) project an average an\u0002nual increase of 0.94% across seven categories of violent and prop\u0002erty crime for each anomalous degree Celsius of warming (an average \r annual increase of about 100,000 crimes). Changing socioeconomic \r conditions in the future may either reduce or exacerbate the projected \r contemporaneous relationship between temperature anomalies and \r crime (Agnew, 2011; Lynch et al., 2020b), whereas adaptation could \r weaken these relationships."


id: 4516c8745f5e64e4839291ef63a00f9c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 9380
content:
"Climate change will affect ecosystems (Section 16.5.2.3), living \r standards (Section  16.5.2.3.4), health (Section  16.5.2.3.5) and \r food security (Section  16.5.2.3.6) globally, and these changes \r may exacerbate violence and political instability (medium \r confidence) with implications for national security in North \r America (medium confidence). Climate variability, hazards and trends, \r to date, have played a role in exacerbating conflict, but the influence of \r climate appears to be minor and more uncertain than the roles of low \r socioeconomic development, low state capability and high intergroup \r inequality (Mach et  al., 2019). More profound impacts from climate \r change on weather and seasons, as well as changing socioeconomic \r conditions, could lead to patterns of violence that cannot be predicted \r by projecting relationships between current climate and violence into \r the future (Section 14.6.3; Mach et al., 2019). If global levels of violence \r [...]"


id: bc9fde6798c58c7d2769191831164723
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"[...] increase, there will be increased demand for international efforts, \r including disaster aid and humanitarian efforts (Eyzaguirre et al., 2021). \r Climate change and geopolitical goals interact in the Arctic (Smith et al., \r 2018). New transportation corridors and the potential access to natural \r resources could lead to competition for access to and control over the \r region (Section CCP6.2.6; see Box CCP6.1; FAQ CCP6.2; Estrada, 2021). \r Governance structures exist to manage geopolitical manoeuvring and \r to protect the human security of Arctic populations (Sections 14.5.10.3, \r 7.2.7.1)."


id: a65d5721a46994f7bd6f4dcdfd21ad78
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content:
"Climate-change impacts are projected to cause large market and non\u0002market damages (high confidence). By end of century under higher GWL \r scenarios (>4degC), these damages are expected to reach several tens of \r billions of USD annually in Canada and hundreds of billions annually \r in the USA. Losses in labour productivity and wages, and damages \r to coastal properties, will be especially large; however, all sectors in \r the USA and most sectors in Canada are projected to see substantial \r relative damages on high-emission pathways by mid- to end of century \r compared with lower-emission pathways. Economic sectors with hard \r limits to adaptation (i.e., winter tourism) or that are highly affected by \r climate variability (i.e., agriculture and fisheries) will be at more risk \r at lower temperatures than other economic sectors (Sections 14.5.7, \r 14.5.8). Strategic implementation of adaptation strategies coupled \r [...]"


id: fcde685a3f46e6a5c62620bc05d8f83
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vector_id: 41854
content:
"[...] with lower-emissions scenarios result in multi-billion-dollar reductions \r in economic damages (Section 14.5.8; see Box 14.6)."


id: f0bb2b2a5eedd60d32f515a35e0810e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 39721
content:
"Droughts and earlier snowmelt runoff will increase water scarcity \r during the summer peak water demand period especially in regions \r with extensive irrigated agriculture, leading to economic losses and \r increased pressures on groundwater as a substitute for diminished \r surface water supplies (medium to high confidence) (Section 14.5.3). \r Streams in North America are expected to continue to warm, with \r important ramifications for aquatic ecosystems (high confidence), \r reducing habitat for salmon and trout species that are economically \r and culturally important (Section 14.5.1). Warming and drying coupled \r with other stressors (e.g., pollutants, nutrients and invasive species) \r pose a risk to ecosystem structure and function in lakes, streams \r and reservoirs across many parts of North America (high confidence) \r (Sections  14.5.1, 14.5.3). Warming increases in heavy rainfall and \r nutrient loading pose risks for water quality and HABs (medium to \r [...]"


id: f04f90194b79e996687d6622fc6af789
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"Ocean warming will increase the frequency and intensity of MHWs \r (see Box  14.3), accelerate unprecedented rates of sea ice loss, and \r alter ocean circulation, chemistry and nutrient cycling in ways that \r profoundly impact marine productivity, biodiversity and food webs \r (very high confidence) (Section  14.5.2). Collectively these impacts \r pose a risk to nearshore ecological and human systems (high \r confidence), increasing the probability of phenological mismatches, \r large-scale redistribution of species, and species population declines \r (Section  14.5.4) with cascading impacts that strain cultural and \r economic systems reliant on marine productivity across North America \r (high confidence). Nearshore areas of Chesapeake Bay (USA) and \r Akimiski Island, mid-western James Bay and the coasts in the Pacific \r ranging from the Gulf of Alaska through Baja Peninsula, have a high \r proportion of species near their upper thermal limit, and are areas that \r [...]"


id: 996c90da0ea2f06496830f6821de820
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content:
"species extinctions, fisheries collapse, community-managed relocation) \r (Lynham et al., 2017). Examples of systems with potential tipping points \r in North America include (a) permafrost and sea ice loss triggering \r transformation of ecological and human systems (including substantial \r shipping opportunities) in the Arctic that are permanent and irreversible \r except on geological timescales, and which are potentially underway \r (high agreement, low evidence) (Section 14.6.2; see Box 14.3, CCP6), \r (b) mid-latitude forest ecosystems at low to middle elevations in \r western North America where wildfire and cumulative climate and \r non-climate pressures may restructure forests and succession in ways \r that promote transition to new vegetation types (Section 14.5.1) and \r (c) agricultural communities in northern Mexico and the southwest \r USA where aridification and drought may interact with water resource \r policies, economic opportunities and pressures, and farm practices \r [...]"


id: 956d0fcdbbe300fa9e2d95a8aa5bec24
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content:
"[...] to induce either adaptation (via changes in irrigation practices) or \r farm abandonment, land-use transformation and livelihood changes \r (due to heat stress, soil deterioration or reduced economic viability) \r (Sections 14.5.3, 14.5.4, CCP6, Yumashev et al., 2019; Turner et al., \r 2020; Heinze et al., 2021)."


id: 7c0f29c055c67a6700416118d29c0f2a
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content:
"Identification of critical thresholds, elements and connections within \r a system may also help identify potential positive tipping points, that \r is, focal components or processes in a system where a relatively small \r investment or intervention can induce a large benefit and enable \r self-reinforcing transformative adaptation (Section 14.7; Chapter 17; \r Tabara et  al., 2018; Lenton, 2020b; Otto et  al., 2020). Under low\u0002mitigation scenarios, compounding risks and higher-carbon-emission \r scenarios increase the potential that amplifying feedback loops and \r fatal synergies across sectors could lead to existential threats to the \r social-ecological systems of North America (medium confidence). \r Societal collapse has been linked to shifts in climate regimes, especially \r when societies have lost resilience due to slowly mounting social-\r ecological challenges, while other studies reveal that social continuity \r [...]"


id: 9f8504da071667d493c95b9515bca34d
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] and flexibility enable historical climate resilience and prosperity under \r changing environments (FAQ 14.2; Lenton et  al., 2019; Otto et  al., \r 2020; Degroot et al., 2021; Richards et al., 2021)."


id: c0d64ab013a687219e555eec22ac8a0c
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Accounting for tipping points, interactions and reinforcing dynamics \r among ecological, social and climate processes is necessary for \r comprehensive analyses of climate-change risk, cost and urgency, \r as well as effective adaptation design and implementation \r (Section  14.7; Cai et  al., 2015; Steffen and et  al., 2018; Lenton \r et al., 2019; Narita et al., 2020; Dietz et al., 2021). Multiple lines of \r evidence across sectors assessed in this chapter suggest that after \r mid-century and without carbon mitigation, climate-driven changes \r to ecological and social boundary conditions may rapidly push many \r systems into disequilibrium (medium confidence), emphasising the \r importance of prioritising adaptation actions with co-benefits for \r mitigation (Section 14.5.4; see Box 14.3). Reducing climate hazards \r through mitigation and removing catalysts of system instability \r through adaptation measures that increase system resilience (e.g., \r [...]"


id: 26671128ba8ddd64d71a2bdc51e523a
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content:
"[...] ecosystem restoration) will help reduce the risk that systems move \r across a tipping point from a desirable to an alternate or undesirable \r state (Sections 14.5.4, 14.7; see Box 14.3; Narita et al., 2020; Turner \r et al., 2020; Heinze et al., 2021)."


id: b7e5c7f1e7c0da127876c55405a0f2e6
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content:
"Across North America, climate change poses a risk to social-ecological \r systems increasingly destabilised by compounding climate impacts and \r non-climate pressures (high confidence) (Sections 14.5.1-14.5.3) that \r erode the connectivity and redundancy underpinning system resilience \r (Sections 14.5.1-14.5.5; Xiao et al., 2017a; Koven et al., 2020; Malhi \r et  al., 2020; Turner et  al., 2020). Accelerating climate change and \r increasingly severe hazards and shocks may induce abrupt changes \r or push systems, people and species to critical points-tipping points-\r where a small additional change causes a disproportionately large \r response, triggering feedbacks that lock systems into novel regimes \r (Scheffer et al., 2001; Scheffer, 2010; Anderies et al., 2013; Lenton, 2013; \r Iglesias and Whitlock, 2020; Lenton, 2020a). Climate-change tipping \r points can compound and amplify climate impacts and risk, induce \r disparate climate burdens and benefits across human and ecological \r [...]"


id: 8a3459c2b1b370be7804e1be107e3bda
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content:
"According to archaeological evidence, however, these adaptation strategies were not always sufficient during times \r of climate-induced stress. Human remains showing the effects of malnutrition are fairly common, and conflict caused \r in part by climate-induced shortfalls in farming has left traces that include fortified sites, sites placed in defensible \r locations and trauma to human bone. Larger and more hierarchical groups emerged, first in Mesoamerica and then \r in the southwest and southeast USA as well as the Midwest USA. These groups offered the possibility of buffering \r poor production in one area with surplus from another, but they also tended to increase inequality within their \r borders and often attempted to expand at the expense of their neighbours, introducing new sources of potential \r conflict. Dense hierarchical societies also arose in other areas such as the northwest coast where agriculture was not \r [...]"


id: 4d605b690df0f4786a07e8c9a23e8589
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content:
"[...] practised but resources, such as salmon and roots, were abundant and either relatively constant or storable."


id: 50d16ac07130f5cf2f2c4cad3cf86f6d
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content:
"Still, Indigenous knowledge and traditional knowledge among Euroamerican farming communities provide \r guidelines for how to cope with traditional problems. Contemporary governmental restrictions (such as legal \r water-rights allocations, international borders and tribal-lands boundaries) have limited the adaptive capacity that \r Indigenous societies have developed over the centuries. Now human-caused climate forcing, if not mitigated by \r reducing heat-trapping GHGs, is expected to produce climates in North America that have no local analogues in \r human history even as it destroys heritage sites that are sources of knowledge about palaeoclimates and the diverse \r ways of coping with them that past peoples have discovered. Just as past peoples often avoided local climate change \r by moving on, in a world where mobility options are severely limited, a lesson from archaeology and history is that \r [...]"


id: d7fbb3dd235f1680ce4985f9758ed68e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35303
content:
"[...] we should use our hard-won knowledge of the causes of climate change to avoid creating futures with no past \r analogues to provide useful guidance."


id: 24c0f95c95d41a4d75942554ffdc0c42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 3661
content:
"Rapid warming and extreme temperatures in the Arctic is leading to unprecedented seasonal sea ice loss, permafrost \r thaw and increasing ocean temperatures. Cascading from these biophysical changes are cultural, socioeconomic \r and political consequences that are widespread and largely unprecedented in human history. Changes in sea ice \r create safety hazards for Indigenous Peoples and northerners who rely on frozen seas and rivers for transportation \r between remote communities and to subsistence hunting areas. Thawing permafrost, especially that of ice-rich \r permafrost, creates challenges and costs for a region with low population density and a small tax base to support \r major infrastructure investments. Warmer ocean temperatures induce large-scale distributional shifts and reduced \r productivity and access to the largest North American fisheries. Ice-associated marine mammals, such as polar bears, \r [...]"


id: 4f3590955e7e05ee3f1be714b42f4522
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11222
content:
"[...] seals and walruses, have declined precipitously with decreasing sea ice in the Bering Sea, and widespread ecosystem \r changes from fish through birds and marine mammal species have altered the system with uncertain outcomes for \r these productive ice-driven ecosystems. Newly ice-free shipping routes are increasing regional and geopolitical \r tensions and may facilitate novel threats like the spread of invasive species and safety hazards to local hunters and \r fishers. The local and regional impacts of climate change in the North American Arctic are profound and span social, \r cultural, health, economic and political imperatives."


id: b8d610b26526a3e0306850c42c029b9e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29724
content:
"In Canada, the Map of Adaptation Actions10 presents over 200 \r adaptation case studies addressing a variety of climate-related impacts \r (Warren and Lulham, 2021). The City of Saskatoon, in developing its \r Climate Action Plan (which includes a Corporate Climate Adaptation \r Strategy), engaged with local businesses, non-governmental \r organisations (NGOs), residents and experts to identify potential risks \r (and benefits) requiring action (City of Saskatoon, 2019). Similarly, \r the City of Surrey specifically used community outreach programmes \r to develop its Coastal Flood Adaptation Strategy (CFAS) through a \r value-based planning approach (City of Surrey, 2019). Municipal \r asset management, local services and community well-being were \r key considerations for the City of Selkirk, Manitoba, when developing \r an adaptation strategy as well as ensuring a budgeting process that \r supports implementation (City of Selkirk, 2019). As of 2019, 8 of 13 \r [...]"


id: 46db333bb767378f7ecfac802fb6d962
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content:
"[...] Canadian provinces and territories have high-level climate adaptation \r strategies. The scope of these efforts vary by jurisdiction as a review \r conducted by federal and provincial auditors in Canada identified \r several deficiencies related to a lack of detailed implementation plans, \r obligated funding and specific timelines (Auditors General, 2018)."


id: 84b3d10c6cf6154d690b559b24ade3cf
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20489
content:
"Across North America, individuals and households have taken action to \r reduce climate-influenced risks (high confidence). These autonomous \r adaptations comprise the majority of the observed responses in the \r peer-reviewed literature (Berrang-Ford and et al., 2021). The increased \r use of cooling systems (which could be maladaptive unless there \r are innovations) (Section  14.5.5.3; Barreca et  al., 2016), creating \r defensible space around homes in wildfire-prone areas (see Box 14.2), \r and the modification or redesign of housing structures along coasts \r (Koerth et al., 2017), are important household responses to existing \r risks. Although these actions have played a role in reducing risks, the \r capacity to undertake such actions is not uniform across individuals \r in North America and has exacerbated existing social inequities, \r especially in coastal areas (Keenan et al., 2018; de Koning and Filatova, \r 2020). Additionally, these adaptation activities often are taken without \r [...]"


id: b356d0fc3348ba4d36f6a88ad243e0ea
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 28794
content:
"[...] consideration of the impact on mitigation efforts (Kates et al., 2012; \r Fedele et al., 2019; Shi and Moser, 2021)."


id: 185b4603083993a0d58065ad8b9c7ba1
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 1494
content:
"Progress in Mexico on adaptation implementation at the local level \r has been extensive (INECC and Semarnat, 2018). Activities include \r executing programmes for relocating infrastructure in high-risk zones \r in priority tourist sites, incorporating adaptation criteria in public \r investment projects that involve construction and infrastructure \r management, water management, application of climate adaptation \r norms for the construction of tourist buildings in coastal zones, \r and improving the security of key water, communication and \r transportation infrastructure (Sections  14.5.5, 14.5.7, 14.5.8). \r Additionally, local capacity and protocol to respond to extreme \r weather events as a function of climate change have been integrated \r more regularly into community-based hazard mitigation plans. States \r and municipalities in Mexico must have climate policies that are \r consistent with the guidelines of national strategies (Section 14.7.1.5) \r [...]"


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"[...] and state-level programmes on climate change, in addition to other \r state and municipal laws. As a result, these entities have developed \r and implemented early warning systems designed to protect the \r population from climate-related risks, such as strong storms and \r hurricanes (INECC and Semarnat, 2018)."


id: 9d96bdc1e2789c01b8f923557f87663d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24963
content:
"The USA has experienced substantial revisions to its climate policy and \r its international engagement since AR5 with implications still unclear \r (Bomberg, 2021). Since AR5 and until early 2020, many congressionally \r mandated federal efforts (Beavers et  al., 2016; Parris et  al., 2016; \r Rockman et al., 2016; Caffrey and Hoffman, 2018) faced programmatic \r challenges, but most continued to provide research and capacity \r development to support adaptation implementation across the USA. \r Importantly, the US government sustained the national climate \r assessments (Lempert et al., 2018). Recently, the administration has \r re-engaged with the Paris Agreement and the USA has submitted an \r NDC (Government of the United States of America, 2021); however, \r adaptation was not directly addressed. Subsequent Executive orders \r mandate adaptation planning at the federal level (e.g., USEO 13754; \r USEO 14008). As of the time of this report, the US climate policy \r [...]"


id: b1db41b26b7ffb0d4a716ecc1786f92b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28516
content:
"[...] landscape is rapidly evolving, including major legislative initiatives \r (e.g., Green New Deal) (Boyle et al., 2021)."


id: 3be52b0ac4a482700170d54b0c6756ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7732
content:
"Research-based institutions have accelerated the development of \r Internet-based tools for visualising and exploring climate information, \r in addition to furthering the scholarship on adaptation. In the USA, joint \r university, foundation and government programmes have contributed \r to advancing the field with products such as oceanographic and fishery \r climate forecasting tools (Section 14.5.2), in addition to methods for \r evaluating water resource plans under uncertainty about future mean \r and extreme conditions (ASCE, 2018a; Ray et al., 2020). Some regional \r research centres focus on stakeholder engagement in addition to \r research; these include the National and Regional Climate Adaptation \r Science Center Network of the US Geological Survey17, the US \r Department of Agriculture's Climate Hub Network18 and the Climate \r Program Office of NOAA19 which includes the Regional Integrated \r Science Assessment Network20 to support delivery of climate services. \r [...]"


id: dba2e6f045dc6c9ff7c7516f068c463e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35934
content:
"[...] So-called networks of networks, consisting of NGOs as well as state \r and city government programmes, have provided an alternative to \r federal support. For example, the Science for Adaptation Network was \r formed subsequent to dismantling the federal advisory group to the US \r National Climate Assessment (Moss et al., 2019)."


id: d4b25b5b8a65515008e7c090873dd37a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34739
content:
"Adaptation actions in one place or sector can have adverse side \r effects elsewhere (medium confidence). For example, increased use \r of groundwater for irrigation in response to aridification can reduce \r baseflows into rivers with adverse impacts on stream ecology and \r water availability for communities far downstream (Section  14.5.3). \r Additionally, across multiple sectors in North America, adaptation \r actions have tended to be sector specific rather than integrating \r across systems (Gao and Bryan, 2017; Fulton et al., 2019), despite the \r increasing awareness of cascading impacts and interdependencies \r (Zimmerman and Faris, 2010; C40 Cities and AECOM, 2017) and \r risks from possible ecological and social thresholds that have been \r identified under higher GWL (Section 14.6.3). For example, the water, \r energy and food nexus in North America has highlighted that food, \r water and energy security depend on transportation infrastructure \r [...]"


id: 3ba66d81bcbb0e0dcf3f050800365561
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7680
content:
"Long-term policy signals to incentivise ongoing, scalable adaptation \r action that is coordinated with mitigation efforts will increase actions \r and prevent potential maladaptive investment (Moser, 2018; Shi \r and Moser 2021). Using SDG goals and the NDCs as a framework \r for inclusive and coordinated partnership and vertical integration \r across subnational, national and regional planning can promote \r climate resilient development (CRD) (Section 18.1.3). Coordination of \r policies and responses have been identified as supporting longer-term, \r transformational adaptation and minimising risk (Termeer et al., 2017; \r Fazey et  al., 2018). New approaches for enabling and incentivising \r transformative adaptation in North America are rapidly emerging \r (Colloff et al. 2017; Fedel et al. 2019; Werners et al. 2021). Evaluation \r of the feasibility of evolving adaptation strategies is only in the early \r stages, but recent work has provided the foundation for assessing \r [...]"


id: c2eb1abcc676ac70643a4fdda48edeb8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31569
content:
"Equity and justice in climate adaptation have been identified as providing \r a foundation for resilience in natural, social and built systems (Cochran \r et  al., 2013; Reckien et  al., 2017; Schell et  al., 2020). This approach \r recognises that social vulnerability undermines efforts to increase adaptive \r capacity and that adaptation may also entrench existing social inequities, \r such as marginalisation of communities of colour, gender discrimination, \r legacy effects of colonisation and gentrification of coastal communities \r (Schell et al., 2020; Thomas, 2020). Thus, identifying systemic racism and \r the effects of colonialism within and across institutions has also been \r identified as part of achieving more just and equitable adaptation (Shi and \r Moser 2021). Acknowledgement and incorporation of IK in adaptation \r planning and implementation also recognises Indigenous sovereignty \r [...]"


id: e64f37741a9745c3aa1b57ad6c3e86bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37824
content:
"[...] issues and the importance of the equitable role of Indigenous self\u0002determination in governance and planning (see Box 14.1; Section 14.4; \r Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018)."


id: da7045c9d51651eae074c1fdef03baac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35732
content:
"Through a capacity to evolve to keep pace with climate change, these approaches can impart self-sustaining and cost-efficient long-term \r protection in addition to serving as biodiverse, carbon sinks (Scyphers et al., 2011; Cheong et al., 2013; Temmerman et al., 2013; Rodriguez \r et al., 2014; Herr and Landis, 2016; Sasmito et al., 2016; Reguero et al., 2018). Nature-based adaptation is generally less expensive and \r strengthens over time, as compared with built infrastructure which erodes with time (medium confidence) (Narayan et al., 2016; Smith \r et al., 2017; Sutton-Grier et al., 2018). Analysis of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy determined that communities located behind wetlands \r experienced 20% less damage (Narayan et al., 2016). Coral reefs are providing 544 million USD yr-1 (Beck et al., 2018a) and mangroves \r 22 billion USD yr-1 in property protection for coastal communities in the USA and Mexico (Beck et al., 2018b). By 2030, flooding from \r [...]"


id: ee36cad16bfb650a6027433e6cabbe51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39281
content:
"[...] changes in storms, SLR (based on RCP8.5) and increases in built infrastructure in the US Gulf Coast may result in net economic losses of "


id: 88e7d6df94f9b259705a53162eb39bc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21252
content:
"Innovative approaches in Canada (Borsje et al., 2011; Spalding et al., 2014; Soto-Navarro et al., 2020) and the USA (Law et al., 2018; \r Buotte et al., 2019; Soto-Navarro et al., 2020) have led to social and environmental co-benefits and could address both future climate \r risk and long-standing social injustices (Hobbie and Grimm, 2020; Schell et al., 2020; Cousins, 2021). Effective nature-based adaptation \r requires a well-coordinated suite of adaptation efforts (e.g., assessment, planning, funding, implementation and evaluation) that is co\u0002produced among stakeholders and across sectors (high confidence) (Millar and Stephenson, 2015; Kabisch et al., 2016; Dilling et al., 2019; \r Morecroft et al., 2019; Lavorel et al., 2020). Evaluating the efficacy of nature-based adaptation may become more tractable with more \r uniform guidelines for implementation (Scarano, 2017; Malhi et al., 2020; Seddon et al., 2020), and coordination in scaling-up local-level \r [...]"


id: 1017bf974538a7cdabc12747818dd480
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18
content:
"[...] nature-based adaptation measures is likely to facilitate long-term success (Gao and Bryan, 2017)."


id: 211c0d80bec66d3c4bcb6d0b084e6def
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3046
content:
"The water management and utilities sectors have made significant progress towards implementation of adaptation \r strategies using broad-based participatory planning approaches. Consideration of climate change is now folded \r into some ongoing watershed-wide planning efforts. An example is provided by the One-Water-One-Watershed \r (OWOW) approach followed by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) in southern California. SAWPA \r is a joint powers authority comprising five regional water districts that provide drinking water to more than 6 million \r people as well as industrial and irrigation water across the 2400-square-mile watershed. The OWOW perspective \r focuses on integrated planning for multi-benefit projects and explicit consideration of the impacts of any planning \r option across the entire watershed. Planning is supported by stakeholder-driven advisory bodies organised along \r [...]"


id: 65fa65d6632ab170139fc67c8fa0c1bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15203
content:
"[...] themes that consider a full suite of technical, political, environmental and social considerations. SAWPA provides \r member agencies with decision-support tools and assistance to implement water conservation policies and pricing \r regimes, and one member agency is an industry leader on potable water recycling."


id: a5b89b513f7c7ff050b74d3741fd0ee0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26384
content:
"Reef island and coastal area habitability in small islands is \r expected to decrease because of increased temperature, extreme \r sea levels and degradation of buffering ecosystems, which \r will increase human exposure to sea-related hazards (high \r confidence). Climate and non-climate drivers of reduced habitability \r are context specific. On small islands, coastal land loss attributable to \r higher sea level, increased extreme precipitation and wave impacts \r and increased aridity have contributed to food and water insecurities \r that are likely to become more acute in many places (high confidence). \r In the Caribbean, additional warming by 0.2deg-1.0degC, could lead to a \r predominantly drier region (5-15% less rain than present day), a greater \r occurrence of droughts along with associated impacts on agricultural \r production and yield in the region. Crop suitability modelling on several \r commercially important crops grown in Jamaica found that even an \r [...]"


id: b176c6630e6f7ce2926b8ebb96cbf89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28446
content:
"[...] increase of less than +1.5degC could result in a reduction in the range \r of crops that farmers may grow. Most Pacific Island Countries could \r experience >= 50% declines in maximum fish catch potential by 2100 \r relative to 1980-2000 under both an RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario \r {15.3.4.3, 15.3.4.4}."


id: 45ca352391158ad2db7057ed2b629c55
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9496
content:
"Projected changes in aridity are expected to impose freshwater \r stress on many small islands, especially SIDS (high confidence). \r It is estimated that with a warming of 1.5degC or less, freshwater stress \r on small islands would be 25% less as compared to 2.0degC. While some \r island regions are projected to experience substantial freshwater \r decline, an opposite trend is observed for some western Pacific and \r northern Indian Ocean islands. Drought risk projections for Caribbean \r SIDS aligned with observations from the Shared Socioeconomic \r Pathway (SSP) 2 scenario indicate that a 1degC increase in temperature \r (from 1.7degC to 2.7degC) could result in a 60% increase in the number \r of people projected to experience severe water resources stress from \r 2043 to 2071. In some Pacific atolls, freshwater resources could be \r significantly affected by a 0.40-m SLR. Similar impacts are anticipated \r for some Caribbean countries with the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) \r [...]"


id: d71773d63dbaaf68d8cd6a2361950c2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35149
content:
"[...] indicating a 0.5-m SLR by the mid-century (2046-2065) and a 1-m \r SLR by the end-of-century (2081-2100). SIDS with high projected \r population growth rates are expected to experience the most severe \r freshwater stress by 2030 under a 2degC warming threshold scenario \r {15.3.3.2}"


id: 4f546037542c46ab5de56223a9d83c99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11243
content:
"The reduced habitability of small islands is an overarching \r significant risk caused by a combination of several key risks \r facing most small islands even under a global temperature \r scenario of 1.5degC (high confidence). These are loss of marine and \r coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services; submergence of reef \r islands; loss of terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services; water \r insecurity; destruction of settlements and infrastructure; degradation \r of health and well-being; economic decline and livelihood failure); and \r loss of cultural resources and heritage. Climate-related ocean changes, \r including those for slow-onset events, and changes in extreme events \r are projected to cause and/or amplify Keys Risks in most small islands. \r Identification of key risks facilitates the selection of optimal context\u0002specific adaptation options. Moreover, it can distil the benefits and/or \r disadvantages and long-term implications of choosing such options \r [...]"


id: 2a3252493dcd77cd3d6805f79be6095
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4635
content:
"Post-AR5 new studies confirm observed impacts on the natural and \r human systems and indicate projected risks in both these systems over \r time. Over the past four decades, there was a significant increase in \r the probability of the global exceedances of tropical cyclones (TCs) \r of major intensity (Kossin et  al., 2020), a trend confirmed by the \r occurrence of a growing number of intense TCs affecting the Atlantic \r and Pacific regions since AR5 (Magee et al., 2016; Bhatia et al., 2019; \r Knutson et al., 2019). Also, scientific evidence since AR5 has confirmed \r that tropical corals are presently at high risk (very high confidence) and \r if global warming exceeds 1.5degC, known coral reef restoration options \r may be ineffective (IPCC, 2018). Even achieving emission reduction \r targets consistent with the ambitious goal of 1.5degC of global warming \r under the Paris Agreement will result in the further loss of 70-90% of \r [...]"


id: 57d697364b776f51ccf459537300fa4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12719
content:
"[...] reef-building corals compared to today, with 99% of corals being lost \r under warming of 2degC or more above the pre-industrial period (high \r confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018)."


id: 5f6c53e3f1e47cd82a50aac3b7786555
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14096
content:
"Additionally, since the last assessment, more robust scientific evidence \r exists on the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and extreme sea level (ESL) \r events on small islands. Under Representative Concentration Pathways \r emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, many low-lying \r coastal areas at all latitudes, including small islands, will experience \r SLR and ESL events such as coastal storm surges and coastal flooding \r more frequently in the coming decades (Section 4.2.3.4.1; IPCC, 2019). \r SLR and ESL events will affect atoll islands and islands with higher \r elevations differently. New studies forecast that small islands are likely\r to experience some of the largest increases in endemic extinctions \r and may substantially contribute to future global biodiversity loss \r as well as to impaired ecosystem functioning (Fortini et  al., 2015; \r Vogiatzakis et al., 2016; Cramer et al., 2018). Scientific evidence points \r [...]"


id: b2bfe1671ddfd039f589a7ebfc75c010
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28689
content:
"[...] to large population reductions with an extinction risk of 100% for \r endemic species within insular biodiversity hotspots by 2100 (IPBES, \r 2018; Manes et al., 2021). An overarching concern since AR5 is the \r reduced habitability of small islands. Eight key risks (KRs) affecting \r the habitability of small islands are identified in this assessment and \r these are covered in the pertinent sections of this chapter which assess \r adaptation responses."


id: 62ee97e4ff85ce832787f0d3e850a241
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14704
content:
"Kiribati (Biribo and Woodroffe, 2013; Duvat, 2013), and the Maldives \r Islands (Kench, 2012; Naylor, 2015; Duvat and Magnan, 2019b), \r population growth has led to land reclamation and the building of \r coastal protection structures, such as seawalls. Land reclamation and \r coastal protection structures negatively impact coastal and marine \r ecosystems, including reefs and mangroves, which compromise the \r protection services that they deliver to island communities through \r wave energy attenuation and sediment supply (Gracia et al., 2018; \r Curnick et  al., 2019; Duvat and Magnan, 2019a) and may impact \r the long-term sustainable adaptive planning of islands (Giardino \r et al., 2018). In addition, these construction activities disrupt natural \r coastal processes, thereby causing coastal erosion, which in turn \r increases the risk of flooding (Yamano et  al., 2007; Duvat et  al., \r 2017b) (Figure 15.3). This becomes a vicious cycle, with more land \r [...]"


id: 461609a5e992a1e2d41f9a5bd1951a6a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9543
content:
"[...] reclamation necessary to accommodate growing populations. Land \r reclamation requires stabilisation by protection structures, which "


id: e4d568ab9dd40d42821c2a14fb485096
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37542
content:
"Recent studies confirmed that observed ESL events causing extensive \r flooding generally resulted from compound effects, including the \r combination of SLR (Section  3.2.2.2 and Cross-Chapter Box  SLR \r in Chapter 3) with ETCs, TCs and tropical depressions (WGI AR6 \r Sections  11.7.1 and 11.7.2, Seneviratne, 2021), ENSO-related high\u0002water levels associated with high or spring tide and/or local human \r disturbances amplifying impacts (high confidence). For example, the \r major floods that occurred in 1987 and 2007 in the Maldives involved \r the combination of distant-source swells and high spring tides and the \r settlement of reclaimed low-lying areas (Box 15.1; Wadey et al., 2017). \r In the Tuamotu atolls, French Polynesia, the 1996 and 2011 floods were \r due to the combination of distant-source swells causing lagoon filling \r and the obstruction of inter-islet channels by human-built structures \r (Canavesio, 2019). In 2011, the flooding of the lagoon-facing coast of \r [...]"


id: bc0936a6f8ef5a7d5f00369ae35bd15e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30318
content:
"[...] Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands, resulted from the combination of high \r sea levels occurring during La Nina conditions and seasonally high \r tides (Ford et al., 2018). Another example is the widespread flooding \r caused by distant TC Pam (2015) in Kiribati and Tuvalu, which was \r attributed to the strong swell generated, the long duration of the \r event and exceptionally high regional sea levels (Hoeke et al., 2021). \r On high tropical islands, major floods often occurred during TC events, \r due to the cumulative effects of storm surge and river flooding, the "


id: 21666ebafc573bb6d326681308e71e93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3086
content:
"Reconstructions of past storm surges and modelling studies \r assessing storm surge risk similarly highlighted high variations of \r risk along island coasts, due to variations in exposure, topography \r and bathymetry (high confidence). For example, the storm surge \r caused by TC Oli (2010) on the high volcanic island of Tubuai, French \r Polynesia, ranged from a few centimetres to 2.5 m, depending on coast \r exposure (Barriot et al., 2016). Investigating the contribution of reef \r characteristics to variations in wave-driven flooding on Roi-Namur \r Island, Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands, Quataert et al. (2015) found \r that the coasts fronted by narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes \r and smoother reef flats are the most flood-prone. Modelling studies \r assessing storm surge risk in Fiji (McInnes et  al., 2014) and Samoa \r (McInnes et al., 2016) confirmed the influence of coast exposure and \r water depth on risk distribution. In Apia, Samoa, Hoeke et al. (2015, p. \r [...]"


id: 1c210f151309214798cb3d50abdf884
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2131
content:
"[...] 1117) found 'differences in extreme sea levels in the order of 1 m at \r spatial scales of less than 1 km' and estimated (p. 1131) that a '1 m \r SLR relative to constant topography increases wave energy reaching \r the shore by up to 200% during storm surges.' These studies reaffirmed \r the main control exerted by SLR on ESL events and associated storm \r surges compared to ENSO (high confidence). In Hawaii and the \r Caribbean, SLR is projected to exponentially increase flooding, with \r nearly every centimetre of SLR causing a doubling of the probability of "


id: c277490424d0a38ce198b9b5afa653dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31494
content:
"systems that are not disturbed by human activities are, respectively, \r expected to migrate lagoonward (Webb and Kench, 2010; Albert et al., \r 2016; Beetham et al., 2017; Costa et al., 2019; Tuck et al., 2019) and \r landward (Bindoff et al., 2019), and to also experience increased erosion \r as well as changes in configuration, volume and elevation (Kench and \r Mann, 2017; Tuck et al., 2019) (Bramante et al., 2020; Kane and Fletcher, \r 2020). Small reef islands and narrow coastal systems affected by human \r disturbances will increasingly be at risk of disappearance due to SLR \r (KR2 in Figure 15.5), enhanced sediment loss caused by extreme events \r (Duvat et  al., 2019a) and/or human activities (high confidence), as \r reported in Hawaii (Romine and Fletcher, 2013), Puerto Rico (Jackson \r et al., 2012), Sicily (Anfuso et al., 2012), and Takuu, Papua New Guinea \r (Mann and Westphal, 2014). SLR will also increase coastal erosion in the \r [...]"


id: 2cdcdefbab7b1ebd9499ed57ec6d8555
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5160
content:
"[...] Mediterranean Sea, (e.g., in the Aegean Archipelago, Greece (Monioudi \r et al., 2017), and Mallorca, Spain (Enriquez et al., 2017)."


id: e38f9ed0ebcb4292ba53823527ef61e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37329
content:
"(Duvat, 2018). The rates of change did not correlate with SLR rates, \r suggesting that the impact of SLR on island land area was obscured \r by other climate drivers and human disturbances on some islands \r (high confidence) (Kench et al., 2015; McLean and Kench, 2015; Duvat, \r 2018). However, reef island disappearance and reduction in land area \r was clearly observed in New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands, and \r was attributed to the synergistic interactions of gradual SLR with \r stronger trade winds causing higher sea levels and local tectonics in \r the Solomon Islands (Albert et al., 2016; Garcin et al., 2016). Despite \r important knowledge gaps on coastal erosion in high tropical islands, \r recent studies confirmed increasing shoreline retreat and beach loss \r over the past decades, mainly due to TC and ETC waves and human \r disturbances (high confidence) (e.g., in the Caribbean region: Anguilla, \r Saint-Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Dominica and Grenada (Cambers, 2009; \r [...]"


id: 7d9161d5b0253feb96e3567ad3ff3cbb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19263
content:
"[...] Reguero et al., 2018)), and Pacific (Hawaii (Romine and Fletcher, 2013); \r Tubuai, French Polynesia (Salmon et  al., 2019)) and Indian Oceans \r (Anjouan, Comoros (Ratter et al., 2016)."


id: e0fdc4e1215005a718ab5f9f2da787
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36851
content:
"Loss of marine and coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services is a key \r risk in small islands (see KR1 in Figure 15.5). Coral bleaching caused \r by elevated water temperatures is the most visible and widespread \r manifestation of a climate change impact on coastal ecosystems in \r most small islands but is far from being the only one (Sections 3.4.2.1 \r and Section 5.3.4; Spalding and Brown, 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r 2017; IPCC, 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Sully et al., 2019). Severe coral \r bleaching, together with declines in coral abundance have been \r documented in many small islands, especially those in the Pacific Ocean \r and Indian Ocean (e.g., Guam, Fiji, Palau, Vanuatu, Chagos, Comoros, \r Mauritius, Seychelles, and the Maldives (high confidence) (Box  15.1; \r Golbuu et  al., 2007; Woesik et  al., 2012; Perry and Morgan, 2017; \r Hughes et al., 2018). During severe bleaching events, not only do reefs \r [...]"


id: e65f41dd277660c9b03b214319466cc3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37836
content:
"[...] lose a significant amount of live coral cover, but they also experience \r a decrease in growth potential, and thus reef erosion surpasses reef \r accretion (Perry and Morgan, 2017). Median return time between two \r severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now \r only 6 years (e.g., Hughes et al., 2017b; Hughes et al., 2018) and is often \r associated with warm phase of ENSO events (high confidence) (Lix et al., \r 2016). Modelling of both bleaching and ocean acidification effects under \r future climate scenarios suggested that some Pacific small islands (e.g., \r Nauru, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands) will experience conditions that \r cause severe bleaching on an annual basis before 2040 and that 90% \r of the world reefs are projected to experience conditions that result in \r severe bleaching annually by 2055 (medium confidence) (van Hooidonk \r et al., 2016). Models are currently predicting the large-scale loss of coral \r [...]"


id: e703786a272670be2dc6cadc7330fc2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37937
content:
"[...] reefs by mid-century under even low-emission scenarios. Even achieving \r emission reduction targets consistent with the ambitious goal of 1.5degC \r of global warming under the Paris Agreement will result in the further \r loss of 70-90% of reef-building corals compared to today, with 99% of \r corals being lost under warming of 2degC or more above the pre-industrial \r period (high confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018)."


id: 37011eaca04f8bba7712bb153d29cd09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6904
content:
"Despite storm-induced erosion prevailing along some shoreline \r sections, recent studies reaffirmed the contribution of TC and ETC \r waves to coastal and reef island vertical building through massive reef\u0002to-island sediment transfer (high confidence). For example, TC Ophelia \r (1958) and Category 5 TC Fantala (2016), which eroded the islands \r of Jaluit Atoll, Marshall Islands (Ford and Kench, 2016), and Farquhar \r Atoll, Seychelles (Duvat et  al., 2017c), respectively, also contributed \r to island and beach expansion. Likewise, tropical depressions can \r have constructional effects, as reported on Fakarava Atoll, French \r Polynesia (Duvat et  al., 2020b). On Saint-Martin/Sint Maarten and \r Saint-Barthelemy, the 2017 hurricanes, which caused marked shoreline \r retreat at most beach sites, also enabled beach formation and beach \r ridge development along some natural coasts (Duvat et  al., 2019a; \r Pillet et al., 2019). Similarly, El Nino and La Nina were involved in rapid \r [...]"


id: 4e11b628282ced8c4f51ad32c63dd481
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10998
content:
"[...] and highly contrasting shoreline changes (high confidence), including \r reef island accretion in the Ryukyu Islands, Japan (Kayanne et  al., \r 2016), beach shifts on Maiana and Aranuka atolls, Kiribati (Rankey, \r 2011), and beach erosion on Hawaii, USA (Barnard et  al., 2015). \r These contrasting shoreline responses were, respectively, due to coral \r reef degradation from past bleaching events providing material to \r islands, wave directional shifts, and increased wave energy. The role \r of bleaching events in increasing short-term sediment generation in \r atoll contexts was confirmed by a study conducted on Gaafu Dhaalu \r Atoll, Maldives, which reported an increase of sediment production \r from ~0.5 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 to ~3.7 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 between 2016 \r (pre-bleaching) and 2019 (bleaching + 3 years) (Perry et al., 2020)."


id: 72d103bb3fb7b1c2add0bb54c0c38840
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17446
content:
"Since 2011, the Caribbean region has been experiencing unprecedented \r influxes of the pelagic seaweed Sargassum. These extraordinary \r sargassum 'blooms' have resulted in mass strandings of sargassum \r throughout the Lesser Antilles, with significant damage to coastal \r habitats, mortality of seagrass beds and associated corals (van \r Tussenbroek et al., 2017), as well as consequences for fisheries and \r tourism. Whether or not such events are related to long-term climate \r change remains unclear; however, it has been suggested that the influx \r may be related to strong Amazon discharge, enhanced West African \r upwelling, together with rising seawater temperatures in the Atlantic \r (low confidence) (Oviatt et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2019). Since 2011, the \r Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu has also been affected by algal blooms, \r the most recent being a large growth of Sargassum on the main atoll \r of Funafuti, and this phenomenon has been related to anthropogenic \r [...]"


id: ff1a5ee9635f1cb79764cc0b73959a75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42285
content:
"demonstrated in the Comoros Archipelago (Cowburn et al., 2018), in \r the Pacific (Fox et al., 2019; Mollica et al., 2019; Romero-Torres et al., \r 2020) and globally (Sully et al., 2019; McClanahan et al., 2020). It has \r been hypothesised that low-latitude tropical reefs bleached less than \r those in higher latitudes because: (a) of the geographical differences \r in species composition, (b) of the higher genotypic diversity at low \r latitudes, and (c) some corals were pre-adapted to thermal stress \r because of consistently warmer temperatures at low latitude prior to \r thermal stress events (Sully et al., 2019). However, latitudinal variation \r was not reported in other global surveys of coral bleaching occurrence \r (Donner et  al., 2017; Hughes et  al., 2017a; Hughes et  al., 2017b; \r McClanahan et al., 2019). Ainsworth et al. (2016) and Ateweberhan \r [...]"


id: 4d6fa89e673799777ec1e5dc9dbb0157
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10901
content:
"[...] et  al. (2013) showed that coral bleaching can be mitigated by pre\u0002exposure to elevated temperatures. Regionally, recovery is also highly \r variable. While some reefs in the Seychelles and Maldives were shown \r to recover to pre-disturbance levels of coral cover after previous \r bleaching events (Box 15.1; Pisapia et al., 2016; Koester et al., 2020), \r other reefs underwent seemingly permanent regime shifts toward \r domination by fleshy macro algae (Graham et  al., 2015), or major \r declines in carbonate budgets, and thus the capacity of reefs to sustain \r vertical growth under rising sea levels (Perry and Morgan, 2017)."


id: fcd6580f4cadf116c9ee38112b6e89e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41849
content:
"Mangroves face serious risks from deforestation and unsustainable \r coastal development (Section  3.4.2.5; Gattuso et  al., 2015). Large\u0002scale die-offs around many small islands suggest that mangroves face \r increased risks from climate change (Sippo et  al., 2018). Mangrove \r seaward edge retreat has been demonstrated in American Samoa and at \r Tikina Wai in Fiji, in Bermuda, West Papua, Grand Cayman and attributed \r to long-term SLR or tectonic subsidence (Ellison, 1993; Ellison, 2005; \r Gilman et al., 2007; Ellison and Strickland, 2015). Inundation-related \r mortality of mangroves could, in theory, be mitigated if mangrove \r substrates can 'keep up' with rising sea level by accretion. Pacific \r Island studies using radionuclides (e.g., 210Pb, 137Cs) have suggested \r that most mangroves are keeping up with current rates of SLR (Alongi, \r 2008; MacKenzie et  al., 2016), while surface elevation tables (SETs) \r suggest otherwise. Lovelock et al. (2015) reported that nearly 70% of \r [...]"


id: 18e68322caca73e363e7ebe21f8daeda
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1597
content:
"[...] the mangroves monitored with SETs are not keeping up with current \r SLR rates. If SLR exceeds 6 mm yr-1, mangroves may be unable to \r maintain their elevation relative to sea level, a threshold likely to be \r surpassed in the next 30 years under high emission scenarios (Ellison, \r 1993; Saintilan et al., 2020). In these worst-case scenarios, flooding \r would result in tree, root and rhizome death and an abrupt change \r in elevation through peat collapse (Krauss et al., 2010; Lang'at et al., \r 2014), creating a positive feedback loop between SLR and elevation \r loss. Geomorphology, hydrology, tidal range and suspended sediments \r are important factors that will determine if mangroves will survive \r increased rates of SLR (Lovelock et  al., 2015; Sasmito et  al., 2015; \r Rogers et al., 2019). TCs can cause extensive damage to mangroves \r (Short et  al., 2016). While immediate physical damage is often \r considerable, trees can sometimes recover by re-foliating, re-sprouting \r [...]"


id: b459b1a610642ea104bafbeaddad6317
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28967
content:
"[...] or regenerating (Kauffman and Cole, 2010). Examples of substantive \r mangrove recovery include the regrowth of trees in the Bay Islands \r of Honduras following Hurricane Mitch (October 1998) (Fickert, 2018) \r and in the Nicobar Islands, India, following the December 2004 Indian \r Ocean Tsunami (Nehru and Balasubramanian, 2018)."


id: 3c103f73dd68205aea2cd18ae1d1c46b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7757
content:
"Despite their vital social and ecological value, substantial declines in \r seagrass communities have been documented in many small islands \r (Section 3.4.2.5; Arias-Ortiz et al., 2018; Kendrick et al., 2019; Brodie \r et al., 2020), including Fiji (Joseph et al., 2019), Reunion Island (Cuvillier \r et al., 2017), Bermuda, Cayman Islands, US Virgin Islands (Waycott et al., \r 2009), Kiribati (Brodie et  al., 2020), Federated States of Micronesia, \r and Palau (Short et  al., 2016), but attribution of such declines to \r climatic influences remains weak (low confidence). The impact of \r climate change on seagrasses goes beyond the loss of seagrass but \r includes acceleration of seagrass decomposition (Kelaher et al., 2018), \r palatability (Jimenez-Ramos et al., 2017) and the cumulative effect of \r warming and eutrophication (Ontoria et al., 2019). Seagrasses face a \r multitude of threats including physical disturbance and direct damage \r [...]"


id: 5371f9d70ee86b61680558c170237ea5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11959
content:
"[...] caused by rapidly growing human populations, declines in water \r quality, and coastal erosion (Short et al., 2016). Experimental studies \r have shown increased mortality, leaf necrosis, and respiration when \r seagrasses are exposed to higher-than-normal temperatures (Hernan \r et al., 2017). As such, seagrass meadows growing near the edge of their \r thermal tolerance are at risk from rising temperatures (Pedersen et al., \r 2016). In the Mediterranean, seagrass meadows are already showing \r signs of regression, which may have been aggravated by climate change \r (high confidence). Some studies suggest seagrasses have potential for \r acclimation and adaptation (Duarte et al., 2018; Ruiz et al., 2018; Beca\u0002Carretero et al., 2020). Chefaoui et al. (2018) attempted to forecast the \r distribution of two seagrasses in the future, including around the islands \r of Cyprus, Malta, Sicily and the Balearic Islands. Under the worst-case \r [...]"


id: 45bc07702ba660547be975a422b8b482
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9482
content:
"[...] scenario, Posidonia oceanica was projected to lose 75% of suitable \r habitat by 2050. Conversely, it has been suggested that seagrasses \r could actually benefit from an increase in anthropogenic CO2because \r of increased growth and photosynthesis (Hopley et al., 2007; Waycott \r et al., 2011; Sunday et al., 2016; Repolho et al., 2017). However, Collier \r et al. (2017) argued that when faced with increased heat waves, thermal \r stress will rarely be offset by the benefit of elevated CO2 and therefore \r that the widespread belief that seagrasses will be a 'winner' under \r future climate change conditions seems unlikely (low confidence)."


id: b5e5b51368bb8b54b631fec4ae0b3129
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29225
content:
"Freshwater systems on small islands are exposed to dynamic climate \r impacts and are considered to be among the most threatened on the \r planet (key risk 3 in Box 15.1; Settele et al., 2014; IPCC, 2018; Butchart \r et al., 2019). Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2019) estimated that freshwater \r stress on small islands would be 25% less with a warming of 1.5degC or \r less as compared to 2.0degC. While some island regions are projected \r to experience substantial freshwater decline, an opposite trend is \r observed for some western Pacific and northern Indian Ocean islands \r (Holding et al., 2016; Karnauskas et al., 2016). Island topography and \r ecophysiology influence water storage capacity and rainfall response \r potential (Dunn et  al., 2018). On high volcanic and granitic islands, \r freshwater ecosystems are often closely connected with coastal \r spaces, and changes in freshwater supply from river systems have \r direct implications for salinity and sediment loads (high confidence) \r [...]"


id: 5f9e0404b0ba17aac17bf4a66f5898b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14135
content:
"[...] (Yang et al., 2015; Zahid et al., 2018). Climate impacts on streamflow \r patterns in tropical islands also create shifts in water supply for \r downstream users and habitat conditions for organisms supporting \r a wide range of ecosystem services (high confidence) (Strauch et al., \r 2015; Frazier and Brewington, 2019; Frauendorf et al., 2020)."


id: 1e32fb0906de8a5bf20a24d670e1660b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2511
content:
"Intact coral reefs (Woodhead et al., 2019), seagrass meadows (Hejnowicz \r et al., 2015) and mangroves (UNEP, 2014b) (Friess, 2016) provide a variety \r of ecosystem services that are key to island communities, including \r provisioning services (e.g., timber, fisheries, aquaculture), regulating \r services (e.g., coastal protection, carbon storage, filtering of pollutants), \r cultural services (Pascua et al., 2017) as well as supporting community \r resilience (Forster et al., 2019). If coastal ecosystems are degraded and \r lost, then the benefits they provide are also lost (Oleson et al., 2018; \r Forster et  al., 2019; Brodie et  al., 2020). In small islands where the \r risk of loss to ecosystem services is high (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in \r Chapter 17), many of these ecosystem services cannot be easily replaced \r (medium confidence). The beneficial role that coral reefs play in coastal \r protection through wave attenuation, and therefore enhancing climate \r [...]"


id: 6e8f2514979f48d8812181e7f0faff62
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16715
content:
"[...] resilience in small islands, has been extensively studied (e.g., Elliff and \r Silva, 2017; Harris et al., 2018; Reguero et al., 2018). Indeed, it has been \r demonstrated that in small islands (such as the Cayman Islands, Grenada, \r Bahamas) averted damages as a result of protecting intact coral reefs \r can be considerable when expressed as a percentage of GDP (Beck et al., \r 2018). Ferrario et al. (2014) conducted a global meta-analysis including \r many small islands across the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans and \r found that coral reefs reduce wave height by an average of 84% (and \r wave energy by 97%) and that reef crests alone dissipate most of this \r energy. Based on another meta-analysis of 69 case studies worldwide \r (wave heights measured before and after the habitat), Narayan et al. \r (2016) observed that coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass reduced \r wave height by 70%, 31% and 36%, respectively (Figure 15.4) and thus \r [...]"


id: 6292925c6f5dbef0dc354325c55f9f56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14630
content:
"[...] perform an essential role in protecting human lives and livelihoods (high \r confidence). Post-TC studies have provided additional evidence for the \r protection services offered by coastal ecosystems. On some Caribbean \r islands (e.g., Saint-Martin/Sint Maarten) where the dense indigenous \r vegetation belt was preserved, the vegetative structure buffered the \r waves of TCs Irma and Jose (2017), reducing the extent of marine \r inundation and shoreline retreat to a 30-m-wide coastal strip against \r values >160 m in deforested areas (Duvat et  al., 2019a; Pillet et  al., \r 2019). By contrast, the destruction of mangrove ecosystems, even a few \r trees around the fringes, can accelerate coastal erosion, as exemplified \r by observations in Micronesia (Krauss et al., 2010; Nunn et al., 2017a)."


id: 183e9a1ca1bde222fe9229343dcc07c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1466
content:
"Recorded alterations of ecological interactions include increased \r competition, changes to migratory routes (Harter et  al., 2015) and \r mismatches between species, such as increased pathogen attacks on \r Mediterranean forest species (Vogiatzakis et al., 2016). Also, in some \r areas of Madagascar there has been increased vulnerability to fire, due \r to the replacement of succulents by less fire-resilient species (Virah\u0002Sawmy et al., 2016). Further, the low functional redundancy of island \r ecosystems implies a comparatively higher proportion of keystone \r species than continents, many of them being endemic (Harter et al., \r 2015), with potentially unpredictable system consequences due to \r climate-induced ecological changes. For example, Caribbean land crabs \r have been observed to alter their food intake as a response to drying \r conditions (McGaw et  al., 2019) and Aldabra giant land tortoises \r have reduced their activity in response to increasing temperature and \r [...]"


id: 10c88751d098917c82b7de530974695d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 137
content:
"[...] decreasing precipitation (Falcon and Hansen, 2018); such changes in \r both these ecosystem engineers are of potential consequence for seed \r dispersal, among other ecological functions."


id: c873ba42ba5b838f796b52e4c70f4b76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32572
content:
"Despite encompassing approximately 2% of the Earth's terrestrial \r surface, oceanic and other high-endemicity islands are estimated to \r harbour substantial proportions of existing species including ~25% \r extant global flora, ~12% birds and ~10% mammals (Alcover et al., \r 1998; Wetzel et  al., 2013; Kumar and Tehrany, 2017). Islands also \r have higher densities of critically endangered species, hosting just \r under half of all species currently considered to be at risk of extinction \r (Spatz et  al., 2017a; 2017b), hence making the loss of terrestrial \r biodiversity and related ecosystem services a KR (KR3) for small islands \r (Figure  15.5). Impacts from developing synergies between changing \r climate, natural and anthropogenic stressors on islands (Cross-Chapter \r Box DEEP in Chapter 17) could lead to disproportionate changes in \r global biodiversity. The most prominent drivers include: SLR, increasing \r intensities of extreme events (human activities--especially continuing/\r [...]"


id: a2cd2b7f36fd05fa1d259bd803b92724
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25861
content:
"[...] accelerating habitat destruction/degradation) and the introduction of \r invasive alien species (IAS) (Tershy et al., 2015). When coupled with \r characteristic small island traits such as spatial and other resource \r limitations, these synergies play a critical role towards increasing the \r vulnerability of these insular ecosystems (Box  CCP1.1). This is likely \r to hinder the adaptation response of terrestrial biota-increasing the \r risk of biodiversity loss and, in turn, impairing the resilience capacity \r of ecosystem functioning and services (high confidence) (Heller and \r Zavaleta, 2009; Ferreira et al., 2016; Vogiatzakis et al., 2016)."


id: e20755278496234819c686cda822af0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37049
content:
"SLR has been projected to impact the terrestrial biodiversity of low\u0002lying islands and coastal regions via large habitat losses both directly \r (e.g., submergence) and indirectly (e.g., salinity intrusion, salinisation \r of coastal wetlands and soil erosion) at even the 1-m scenario (medium\r to high confidence). However, these impacts vary depending on the \r islands' topographical differences. In a study of SLR impacts on insular \r biodiversity hotspots, Bellard et al. (2013a) reported that the Caribbean \r islands, Sundaland and the Philippines were projected to suffer the \r most habitat loss while the East Melanesian islands were projected \r to be less (but not minimally) affected. The most threatened of these, \r the Caribbean, was projected to have between 8.7% and 49.2% of its \r islands entirely submerged, respectively, from 1-m to 6-m SLR (Bellard \r et  al., 2013a). However, many current projection studies consider \r [...]"


id: 122c45428bc8565700f1553f90b59d82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 388
content:
"[...] marine flooding directly and seldom incorporate other indirect impacts \r such as increased habitat losses from horizontal erosion loss, increased \r salinity levels, tidal ranges and extreme events. These projections are \r considered to be conservative, underestimating the extent of habitat \r loss to terrestrial biodiversity (Bellard et al., 2013b)."


id: db844a657dd1d5fc529b3dbf69a9f1a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35900
content:
"Current observations of insular species response to climate change \r generally report geographic range shifts/reductions for species and \r vegetation associations in addition to resulting impacts on local \r ecology (Virah-Sawmy et al., 2016; Koide et al., 2017; Maharaj et al., \r 2019). These include changes in plant/animal phenology and resulting \r community alterations such as for the common Mediterranean island \r species Quercus ilex (holly oak) and Ficus carica (common fig). Species \r have been shifting greater distances to access not only suitable climate \r conditions but also, by association, suitable breeding conditions and \r seasonal food. Examples include: migratory birds such as Coturnix \r coturnix now having earlier spring arrival dates in the Mediterranean \r compared to six decades ago and the increased mortality of the iconic \r Argyroxiphium sandwicense (Hinahina) as result of warmer drier \r trends at Hawaiian high altitudes (Krushelnycky et al., 2012; Taylor and \r [...]"


id: cfc79bcb3e5e278444fc8e4b0401aea0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33915
content:
"[...] Kumar, 2016a; Vogiatzakis et al., 2016). There have also been die-offs \r of some species from temperature extremes (e.g., flying fox species: \r Pteropus species) within the Pacific islands (Taylor and Kumar, 2016a)."


id: 9149eec0250c302c6f41d542fbb63a39
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22767
content:
"Continued high rates of habitat loss and degradation have been \r reported for many small islands as natural habitats continue to be \r cleared to meet increasing demands upon natural resources from rising \r human populations, agriculture, urbanisation, unsustainable tourism, \r overgrazing and fires. This increases the vulnerability of ecosystems \r within especially oceanic islands--where isolation has given rise to high \r levels of endemism but simple biotic communities, with low functional \r redundancy (Box CCP1.1). There is high confidence that climate change \r may exacerbate the effects of this habitat loss upon the biodiversity \r of these islands as the climate refugia (Table  15.3) and the upslope \r shifts of range-restricted, dispersal-limited and poorly competitive \r species, confined within narrow latitudinal (and decreasing altitudinal) \r gradients, are increasingly challenged by fragmented and degraded \r [...]"


id: efa04f277a2306cc52db38fe863a8ae7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39538
content:
"[...] landscapes (e.g., Struebig et al., 2015a; IPBES, 2019). Additionally, high\u0002altitude ecosystems such as cloud forests which harbour high levels \r of endemism are projected to shrink due to increasing atmospheric \r temperature and competition from upward-shifting lowland species \r (Taylor and Kumar, 2016a). These may ultimately increase the risk of \r multiple extinctions, negatively impacting upon global biodiversity \r levels (high confidence) (Taylor and Kumar, 2016a; Portner et al., 2021)."


id: 43c952d680e9299b3531385a944fc17d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Analyses of historical and current threats indicate that IAS and \r disease have been the primary drivers of insular extinctions in modern \r history (Bellard et al., 2016). Impacts of IAS on islands are projected \r to increase with time due to synergies between climate change and \r other traditional drivers such as increasing global trade, tourism, \r agricultural intensification, overexploitation and urbanisation (Bellard \r et al., 2014; Russell et al., 2017). Changing climate conditions may not \r necessarily increase the rate of IAS introductions but is expected to \r improve chances of IAS establishment via (a) altering IAS transport and \r introduction mechanisms, (b) increasing the impacts and distributions \r of existing IAS and (ci) altering the effectiveness of existing control \r strategies (Hellmann et al., 2008; Russell et al., 2017). These are likely \r to enhance IAS impacts on islands including: restructuring of ecological \r [...]"


id: bd057b35820cc743291f8e76c1e84c52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] communities leading to declines and extinctions/extirpations in flora \r and fauna, habitat degradation, declining ecosystem functioning, \r services and resilience and, in extreme cases, potential community \r homogenisation (high confidence) (Russell and Blackburn, 2017; IPBES, \r 2019). Given the high degree of endemicity within oceanic islands and \r their associated vulnerabilities, such exacerbation by changing climate \r poses a serious threat to decreasing global biodiversity (medium to \r high confidence) (van Kleunen et al., 2015)."


id: 846eda2b4d20e0d6bd15b865cfea4124
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Table 15.3 |  Percentage of selected islands classified as refugia for biodiversity at increasing levels of warming. While protected land is still 'protected' this table demonstrates the \r difficulty of protecting lands which might be 'more resilient' to climate change under increasing levels of warming and current land use practices. Derived from current and future \r projected distributions of ~130,000 terrestrial fungi, plants, invertebrates and vertebrates (Warren et al., 2018a). Refugia=areas remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the \r species modelled (Warren et al., 2018b). Projections: based on mean impacts from 21 CMIP5 climate model patterns (no dispersal) and elevationally downscaled to 1 km under \r interpolated warming levels derived from RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.0 (Warren et al., 2018a). First column-set: % island/island chain classified as a refugia based on climate alone; \r [...]"


id: 9d99a79e0667803c5ae649b703e33250
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] second column-set: % natural land projected to be climate refugia--illustrating potential refugia 'space' already lost to habitat conversion. Colour key: white: > 50%; yellow: \r 30-50%; red: 17-30%; dark red: <17% of land classified as refugia."


id: 3195ce38c400c5aa695c1ceba4ad6c77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Extreme weather and climate events, particularly TCs, floods, drought, \r and heatwaves can cause injuries, infectious diseases, and deaths \r (Box 15.1; Schutte et al., 2018). For example, Category 5 TC Winston \r hit Fiji on 20 February 2016. During the national state of emergency \r (7 March and 29 May 2016), the World Health Organization portable \r toolkit for an early warning alert and response system (EWARS in a \r Box) was deployed within 24 h; it recorded 34,113 cases of the nine \r syndromes among 326,861 consultations in a population of about \r 900,000; 48% of cases were influenza-like illnesses, 30% were acute \r watery diarrhoea, and 13% were suspected cases of dengue. There also \r were 583 cases of Zika-like illness (1.7% of all cases) and two large \r outbreaks of viral conjunctivitis (total of 880 cases). During TC Maria \r in Puerto Rico, there were more deaths per 100,000 among individuals \r living in municipalities with the lowest socioeconomic development \r [...]"


id: 7a09309355606c60b5bf5ea2bd23cc13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] and for men 65  years of age or older (Santos-Burgoa et  al., 2018); \r this excess risk persisted for at least 1 year after the event. The first \r human cases of leptospirosis in the U.S. Virgin Islands occurred in 2017 \r after TC Irma and Maria. TCs also can affect treatment and care for \r people with non-communicable diseases, including exacerbation or \r complications of illness and premature death (Ryan et al., 2015)."


id: 45ba3e8800655c1504abe627d8cb8137
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Tropical and subtropical islands face risks from vector-borne diseases, \r such as malaria, dengue fever, and the Zika virus. El Nino events can \r increase the risk of diseases such as Zika virus by increasing biting rates, \r decreasing mosquito mortality rates and shortening the time required \r for the virus to replicate within the mosquito (Caminade et al., 2017). \r By combining disease prediction models with climate indicators that are \r routinely monitored, alongside evaluation tools, it is possible to generate \r probabilistic dengue outlooks in the Caribbean and early warning \r systems (Oritz et al., 2015; Lowe et al., 2018). Projections suggest that \r more individuals will become at risk of dengue fever by the 2030s \r and beyond because of an increasing abundance of mosquitos and \r larger geographic range (Ebi et al., 2018). Projected increases in mean \r temperature could double the dengue burden in New Caledonia by 2100 \r [...]"


id: 8e20fbb9e51b30923df50568f1bf946c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] (Teurlai et al., 2015). In the Caribbean, Saharan dust transported across \r the Atlantic can interact with Caribbean seasonal climatic conditions \r to become respirable and contribute to asthma presentations at the \r emergency department (See Table 15.5; Akpinar-Elci et al., 2015)."


id: 17ea1e9d14bf7b917d00fdbb315dfccc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Population growth plays a major role in projected future water stress \r (Schewe et al., 2014). Combining projected aridity change (fractional \r change compared to historical climatology) with population projections \r derived from SSP2 shows that the SIDS with high projected population \r growth rates are expected to experience the most severe freshwater \r stress by 2030 under a 2degC warming threshold scenario (Karnauskas \r et  al., 2018). For several SIDS (e.g., Belize and Jamaica), increasing \r aridity change is a prominent exacerbating factor, but for others (e.g., \r the Solomon Islands and Comoros) population growth is the main \r factor. An increase in temperature of 1degC (from 1.7degC to 2.7degC) could \r result in a 60% increase in the number of people projected to experience \r severe water resources stress in the period 2043-2071 (Schewe et al., \r 2014; Karnauskas et al., 2018). Research on Jamaica concluded that the \r [...]"


id: 3e6dc7c2e23e5feca3ba3dc095db969b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] ability of rainwater harvesting to meet potable water needs between \r the 2030s and 2050s will be reduced based on predicted shorter intense \r showers and frequent dry spells (Aladenola et al., 2016)."


id: a0d67634ce793db4ba289f1da5655e6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Climate-driven changes in the ability to access locally grown or harvested \r food, either through environmental degradation or changes in extreme \r event magnitude and/or frequency, can increase dependence on imported \r food and increase rates of malnutrition and non-communicable diseases \r (Springmann et al., 2016; WHO, 2018; Savage et al., 2019; Lieber et al., \r 2020). Projections suggest that local food accessibility could be reduced \r by 3.2% in the low- and middle-income countries of the Western Pacific \r (including the Philippines, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and \r other Pacific islands) by 2050, with approximately 300,000 associated \r deaths possible (Springmann et al., 2016). A climate change-related 20% \r decline in coral reef fish production in some Pacific Island countries by \r 2050 could exacerbate the population growth-driven gap between volume \r of fish needed for nutritional security and fish available through sustained \r [...]"


id: 97ce2f78138aa3baa6d1055eaa2fdd4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The Caribbean and Pacific regions have historically been affected by \r severe droughts (Peters, 2015; FAO, 2016; Barkey and Bailey, 2017; \r Paeniu et al., 2017; Trotman et al., 2017; Anshuka et al., 2018) with \r significant physical impacts and negative socioeconomic outcomes. \r Water quality is affected by drought as well as water availability. The \r El Nino related 2015-1016 drought in Vanuatu led to reliance on small \r amounts of contaminated water left at the bottom of household tanks \r (Iese et  al., 2021a). The highest land disturbance percentages have \r coincided with major droughts in Cuba (de Beurs et al., 2019). Drought \r has been shown to have an impact on rainwater harvesting in the \r Pacific (Quigley et al., 2016) and Caribbean (Aladenola et al., 2016), \r especially in rural areas where connections to centralised public water \r supply have been difficult. Increasing trends in drought are apparent in \r the Caribbean (Herrera and Ault, 2017) although trends in the western \r [...]"


id: 87a721d588e6444bf173886134976f04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"economic status and level of dependence on agriculture and fisheries \r produce dynamic climate impacts (Balzan et al., 2018). Climate change \r is impacting agricultural production in small islands through slow-onset \r stressors such as rising average temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, \r SLR and extreme events like TCs. For example, TC Pam, a Category 5 \r cyclone, devastated Vanuatu in 2015 and caused losses and damages to \r the agriculture sector valued at USD 56.5 million (64.1% of GDP) (Nalau \r et al., 2017), and TC Winston in 2016 resulted in losses and damages \r in the agriculture sector in Fiji valued at USD 254.7 million (Iese et al., \r 2020). In 2017, total losses and damages associated with hurricane \r Maria (Category 5) amounted to 224% of Dominica's 2016 GDP (Barclay \r et  al., 2019). Losses and damages in agriculture often led to people \r eating imported processed foods affecting their diet and nutrition \r [...]"


id: 69608ff68a28d94d904c900e815c6368
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] (Haynes et al., 2020). Small islands communities are also witnessing \r the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural systems \r (Hickey and Unwin, 2020). However, the limited diversity of agriculture \r production and reduced household incomes are contributing to low \r diet diversity (Iese et al., 2021b). Bell and Taylor (2015) assessed the \r effects of climate change on specific sectors of agriculture in the Pacific \r islands region and found that, by 2090, staple food crops of taro, sweet \r potato and rice are expected to suffer from moderate to high impact. \r Among export crops, coffee is expected to sustain the most significant \r impact due largely to increased temperatures in the highland areas \r of Papua New Guinea--a high production area (Bell et  al., 2016). \r Livestock is an important protein source in some small islands and is \r particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature through heat stress \r [...]"


id: e20540feba507dee8dd2e746ee97f726
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] (Bell and Taylor, 2015; Lallo et  al., 2018). With the concentration of \r island people along (often reef-fringed) coasts, there is a comparatively \r large dependence on nearshore marine foods and coastal agricultural \r systems (Ticktin et al., 2018)."


id: 2f478eca1735e1444a29ecb8d337c120
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 5584
content:
"-20%) due to a greater proportion of fish occurring in the high seas \r (Bell et al., 2021), while projected increases have been anticipated for \r Ascension Island and Saint Helena in the South Atlantic (Townhill et al., \r 2021). Additionally, seafood plays an important role in achieving food \r security in many islands. In the Pacific, fish protein is estimated to make \r up 50-90% of animal protein consumption in rural areas and 40-80% \r in urban areas (Bell et al., 2009; Hanich et al., 2018) with similar values \r reported for some Indian Ocean and Caribbean islands (e.g., Maldives, \r Antigua and Barbuda). It has been suggested that island nations may \r need to retain more of their tuna catch rather than to rely solely on \r coastal fisheries to achieve food security in the future (Cross-Chapter \r Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5; Bell et al., 2015; Bell et al., 2018). \r Furthermore, small island fisheries can be severely impacted by extreme \r [...]"


id: 5367eb98d98474ac381fa1778006047c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 11948
content:
"[...] events such as TCs, yet rapidly recovering pelagic fisheries can help to \r alleviate immediate food insecurity pressures in some circumstances, \r helping to build resilience (Pinnegar et al., 2019)."


id: e8aa84a63af69b2abb46b3f52d60a668
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38279
content:
"Observed impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries in small islands \r include declines in reef-associated species due to coral bleaching or \r cyclone damage (Robinson et al., 2019; Magel et al., 2020), oceanic-scale \r shifts in the distribution of large pelagic fish and hence their fisheries \r (Erauskin-Extramiana et  al., 2019), changes to the size structure or \r breeding behaviour of species (e.g., (Asch et al., 2018) (Sections 3.3.3.2 \r and 3.4.3.1)). Many studies of future fishery productivity in a changing \r climate suggest that yields will fall as a result of ocean productivity \r reductions, local species extinction and/or migration (Nurse, 2011; Asch \r et al., 2018; Robinson et al., 2019). Asch et al. (2018) provided future \r projections for biodiversity and the maximum catch potential of fisheries \r in Pacific Island countries and territories. These authors concluded that \r nine of 17 Pacific Island entities (Cook Islands, Federated States of \r [...]"


id: c513190f32069b3806608b32eb9c42ca
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"[...] Micronesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, \r Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu) could experience >=50% declines in \r maximum catch potential by 2100 relative to 1980-2000 under both an \r RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario (medium confidence). In Wallis and Futuna, \r maximum catch potential was projected to increase slightly (around \r 10%) by 2050, later declining by the year 2100. Similar projections \r have now been provided for all countries worldwide, including Pacific, \r Caribbean, Atlantic, Mediterranean and Indian Ocean small islands \r (Cheung et al., 2018). The small islands that show the largest anticipated \r decrease in the maximum catch potential of fisheries by the end of \r the century (according to an RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario) include the \r Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tokelau, Tuvalu, \r Sao Tome and Principe, whereas some other small islands such as \r Bermuda, Easter Island (Chile), and Pitcairn Islands (UK), might actually \r [...]"


id: 9a15709fc732a01be906c0ce97651485
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vector_id: 24344
content:
"[...] witness increases in fish catch potential (medium confidence) (Cheung \r et al., 2018). Monnereau et al. (2017)showed that for the fisheries sector, \r small island states are generally more vulnerable to climate change \r impacts compared to continental least-developed countries or coastal \r states because of their increased reliance on fisheries, the exposure \r of coastal communities to potential climatic threats and their limited \r adaptive capacity.\r Projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries pose \r serious threats to dependent human populations (Ren et  al., 2018; \r Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019), making the risk caused to livelihoods a \r key risk in small islands (KR7 in Figure 15.5). On small islands, despite \r biophysical commonalities (e.g., size and isolation), differences in "


id: 9d51561988acd21fa5f962fba8e73607
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"It is challenging to disentangle the role of climate change from \r that of globalisation and development in recent changes to human \r livelihoods on small islands, given that the latter have characterised \r many--especially SIDS--within the last few decades. However, recent \r climate change is clearly implicated in livelihood deterioration in many \r island contexts (Hernandez-Delgado, 2015; Nunn and Kumar, 2018). \r For example, livelihood impacts of climate-driven stressors (including \r shoreline/riverbank erosion, flooding and erratic rainfall) in three \r Mahishkhocha island chars (river-mouth sand islands of Bangladesh) \r have been amplified by inadequate/misguided policy (Saha, 2017).The \r subordination of IKLK in favour of external adaptation strategies has \r accelerated livelihood decline in many island contexts (Wilson and \r Forsyth, 2018). Although economic and financial development has the \r potential to reduce environmental (and livelihood) degradation in SIDS \r [...]"


id: aaaa8f79a438b63f033bbdf979be25f9
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] (Seetanah et al., 2019), it is also clear that uneven development can \r steepen core-periphery disparities, especially in archipelagic contexts, \r resulting in deteriorating rural/peripheral livelihoods at the expense of \r improving urban ones (Wilson, 2013; Sofer, 2015) and increased rural-\r urban migration (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014; Connell, 2015)."


id: eec940a3737d8c73b2e7009461b0f49b
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39385
content:
"Climate-related migration is considered to be a particular issue for small \r islands because changes in extreme events and slow-onset changes \r affect increasingly highly exposed and vulnerable low-lying coastal \r populations, therefore causing a threat to small island habitability (KR9 \r in Figure 15.5) (Storey and Hunter, 2010; Kumar and Taylor, 2015; Duvat \r et  al., 2017b; Weir and Pittock, 2017; Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018; \r Mycoo, 2018a; Rasmussen et al., 2018). A typology of climate-related \r migration is provided in Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7. It is \r assumed that climate-related migration will increase in small islands; \r however, as is the case globally, the causes, form and outcomes are \r highly context specific. Types of climate-related migration occur \r across a continuum of agency from involuntary displacement at one \r end to voluntary movement to strategically reduce risks and planned \r [...]"


id: fd7d372366c9c4b6fcada995613e3651
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41955
content:
"[...] resettlement at the other end (Section 15.5.1, also see Chapter 7; Birk \r and Rasmussen, 2014; Betzold, 2015; McNamara and Des Combes, \r 2015; Gharbaoui and Blocher, 2016; Stojanov et al., 2017; Weir, 2020)."


id: 40a41075163552f3f02e002a2f59f3fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8558
content:
"Some studies from the Pacific suggest that climate-migration linked \r to reduced habitability (Section 15.3.4.6) can have particularly severe \r cultural implications in a small island context where community solidarity \r and cohesion linked to place-based identity are important aspects of \r adaptive capacity (Hofmann, 2014; Lazrus, 2015; Warrick et al., 2017). \r In the Federated States of Micronesia, land is owned through the \r matrilineal system and hence puts women at the centre of decision\u0002making. The deterioration and loss of land (through saltwater intrusion, \r flooding, drought, erosion) not only can lead to economic deprivation \r but it also compromises cultural identities: 'Where land signifies political, \r social, and economic well-being, becoming bereft of land cuts off an \r important thread of people's sense of belonging' (Hofmann, 2017, p. 82) \r particularly for Chuuk women. Land degradation and loss involves the \r [...]"


id: b4069dbebf7e683906e1d077938d5bfc
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vector_id: 28915
content:
"[...] 'interruption to the matrilineal transmission of land' (Hofmann, 2017; p. \r 82), the loss of identities, relationships and their customary authority."


id: c0034f3ea3232dce8970524377908a5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31072
content:
"This section builds on cross-chapter work led by Chapter 16 aimed at \r identifying and assessing KRs across sectors and regions (Section 16.5 \r and SM16). KRs are the risks of most pressing concern that are caused \r or exacerbated by climate change in a given region. A KR is defined as a \r 'potentially' severe risk, which can either be already severe or projected \r to become severe in the future, as a result of (a) changes in associated \r climate-related hazards and/or the exposure and/or vulnerability of \r natural and human systems to these hazards, and/or of (b) the adverse \r consequences of adaptation or mitigation responses to the risk. In line \r with the guidelines used in the WGII AR6, the identification of KRs in \r small islands is based on the chapter authors' expert judgement, using \r scientific literature and five types of criteria: (1) importance of the \r affected system or dimension of the system, which is a value judgement \r [...]"


id: a32bb638990dc4946c418b3fa81879ed
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25918
content:
"[...] left to readers to make; (2) magnitude of adverse consequences, based \r on their pervasiveness, degree and irreversibility, and on the potential for \r impact thresholds and cascading effects across the system; (3) likelihood \r of adverse consequences, although this probability is rarely quantifiable \r for small islands due to limited downscaled data at a small island level; \r (4) temporal characteristics of the risk, including its period of emergence, \r persistence over time and trend; and (5) ability to respond to the risk, \r with the severity of the risk being inversely proportional to this ability."


id: c28ad8398432cf4a21ba7432fc1b494b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31512
content:
"The unquantifiable and highly localised cultural losses resulting from \r climate drivers are less researched and less acknowledged in policy than \r physical and economic losses (Karlsson and Hovelsrud, 2015; Thomas \r and Benjamin, 2018a). In the Bahamas, prolonged displacement \r of the entire population of Ragged Island following Hurricane Irma \r (2017) highlighted the cultural losses that can result from climate\u0002induced displacement from ancestral homelands. Threats to identity, \r sense of place and community cohesion resulted from displacement, \r although all were important foundational features of the Islanders' \r self-initiated rehabilitation efforts and eventual return. Nonetheless, \r non-economic losses were not accounted for by policy addressing \r displacement (Thomas and Benjamin, 2018a). In the case of Monkey \r River Village in Belize, coastal erosion is threatening the community's \r cemetery. Residents place significant spiritual and emotional value on \r [...]"


id: 36132aed6d023d7edecc1d7e797fc281
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 6766
content:
"[...] the cemetery, which serves important community functions, and, thus, \r threats to it are perceived to be serious and necessary to be taken into \r account in any planned response (Karlsson and Hovelsrud, 2015). A \r similar situation exists on Carriacou in the West Indies where culturally \r and historically significant archaeological sites are being lost due to \r coastal erosion caused by a combination of sand mining and extreme \r climate-ocean events exacerbated by SLR (Fitzpatrick et al., 2006)."


id: 9a26911788a240060a3eceef67f9faef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24359
content:
"The 1997-1998 ENSO event was severe in the Maldives and as a result the living coral cover dropped to <10% (Bianchi et al., 2003). \r Recovery was still in progress in 2004 when the tsunami caused further (although not quantitatively assessed (Gischler and Kikinger, \r 2006)) damage to the reef ecosystem. Post-1998 recovery ultimately took 15 years, (i.e., longer than following the 1987 ENSO event, \r after which recovery had only taken a few years) and also longer than in the neighbouring undisturbed Chagos atolls, thereby suggesting \r the alteration of the recovery capacity of the reef ecosystem by human-induced reef degradation and climate change (Morri et al., 2015; \r Pisapia et al., 2017). Mid-2016, a new ENSO event occurred, which reduced living coral cover by 75% (Perry and Morgan, 2017). Future \r recovery of the reef ecosystem, which is critical to both current livelihoods and economic activities (especially diving-oriented tourism and \r [...]"


id: 8a03deffd463331b689de00764cb0533
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21452
content:
"[...] fishing) and to long-term island persistence, will mainly depend first on the frequency and magnitude of future bleaching events, which \r are expected to increase due to ocean warming, and second on the highly variable effects of anthropogenic disturbances locally (Perry \r and Morgan, 2017; Pisapia et al., 2017; Duvat and Magnan, 2019b)."


id: 45fd453eac37294b5d33993e940b0d17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Among the 29 Caribbean SIDS, 22 were affected by at least one Category 4 or 5 TC in 2017. These events highlighted how the pre-cyclone \r high exposure and vulnerability of these islands and their populations has caused a 'cumulative community vulnerability' (Lichtveld, 2018, \r p. 28) that has amplified the impacts of these TCs, which will in turn increase the long-term vulnerability of affected islands. The exposure \r of these islands over their entire surface, combined with the concentration of people, infrastructure, utilities and public services in flood\u0002prone coastal areas, inadequate housing, limited access to healthy food and transportation, and unpreparedness explains widespread-to\u0002total devastation (Shultz et al., 2018; Briones et al., 2019). The destruction of transport systems (Lopez-Candales et al., 2018) and island \r supply chains (Kim and Bui, 2019), which heavily depend on ports, roads, power and communications, made rescue logistically complex, \r [...]"


id: 80dd11e9c144b20d4635d0d976a9f317
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] explaining the lack of freshwater, food supplies, medications and fuel on some islands for several weeks after the event. This cumulative \r vulnerability caused 'cascading public health consequences' (Shultz et al., 2018, p. 9), including delayed (i.e., over the next year) mortality, \r physical injury during the clean-up and recovery phase and increased risk of chronic, vector-borne, contaminated water-related diseases \r as well as of mental sequelae (Kishore et al., 2018; Ferre et al., 2019)."


id: 14b7cec63bafba7df563b6be02907784
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 871
content:
"Risk accumulation and amplification through cascading effects from \r ecosystems and ecosystem services to human systems will likely \r cause reduced habitability of some small islands (high confidence) \r identified as the overarching KR (KR9). Habitability is understood \r as the ability of these islands to support human life by providing \r protection from hazards which challenge human survival; by \r assuring adequate space, food and freshwater; and by providing \r economic opportunities, which contribute to health and well-being--\r recognising that both supportive ecosystems and sociocultural \r conditions (i.e., beliefs and values, institutions and governance \r arrangements, sense of community and attachment to place) play \r a critical role in habitability (Duvat et al., 2021a). The reduction of \r island habitability is expected to cause increased migration, along the \r afore-mentioned involuntary displacement to planned resettlement \r [...]"


id: 4eca2ee136583d18309f9fd6ce5e8862
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] spectrum (Section 15.3.4.6), which may eventually lead to population \r movements from exposed areas and depopulation of some islands. \r This risk is the highest for atoll nations, where some islands might \r become uninhabitable over this century (Section 15.3.4.6; Storlazzi \r et al., 2018; Duvat et al., 2021a). Despite a lack of literature assessing \r the risk of reduced habitability in non-atoll islands, the latter are \r also expected to experience decreased habitability, especially in their \r coastal areas."


id: 4efaa54b2a00cea05f093422acad5283
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11180
content:
"As highlighted in AR5, detection of climate change impacts on the \r fragile environments of small islands is challenging because of \r other non-climate drivers that affect small islands. Determination of \r attribution to incremental change of climate drivers is also challenging \r because of the natural climate variability. Therefore, there is limited \r scientific literature on observed impacts and attribution. A synthesis of \r findings on the impacts of climate change (Sections 15.3.3 and 15.3.4) \r shows that there is more information on impacts on ecosystems \r compared to human systems. There is high confidence in attribution \r to climate change of impacts on the coastal and marine as well as \r terrestrial ecosystems (Hansen and Cramer, 2015; Shope et al., 2016; \r van Hooidonk et al., 2016; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2017; Hughes et al., \r 2017b; Mentaschi et al., 2017; Shope et al., 2017; Vitousek et al., 2017; \r Wadey et al., 2017; Ford et al., 2018; Hughes et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018; \r [...]"


id: 285a9d8baa6787a9215c63964b1ad0ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4300
content:
"[...] Storlazzi et al., 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019) and medium confidence in \r attribution to climate change of impacts on livelihoods, economics and \r health (Figure 15.6; McIver et al., 2016; Eckstein et al., 2018; Santos\u0002Burgoa et al., 2018; Schutte et al., 2018; WHO, 2018)."


id: bbf20e899c99d9cb38e491d21443fa06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In most small island contexts, the costs of adaptation through \r accommodation are prohibitive so that it has in most cases not been \r contemplated as a widespread option. However, accommodation \r measures such as the raising of dwellings and key infrastructure like \r coastal roads above ground level have been implemented to reduce the \r impacts of flooding in some islands (Figure 15.7). In the most populous \r islands of the Tuamotu atolls, French Polynesia, where between 48% \r and 98% of dwellings have already experienced flooding since the \r 1980s, elevated houses with floors built 1.5 m above ground level \r are subsidised by the government as part of risk prevention plans \r (Magnan et  al., 2018). Despite this incentive, the opposition of the \r local authorities and population to these plans (which also include \r constraining setback guidelines) considerably limited implementation, \r hence elevated houses only represent 7% of the total housing stock. \r [...]"


id: 6b3f1a0ef8e07e346cb912e4ccf963f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16166
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"[...] In the Philippines (Tubigon) and Indonesia (Jakarta area), residents \r have elevated their houses by building stilted houses or raising the \r floor using coral stones to face increased flooding (Jamero et al., 2017; \r Esteban et al., 2020). Also, in Puerto Rico houses have been raised to \r address flooding (Lopez-Marrero, 2010)."


id: 3b7c209e7be5055075e36c9897503a5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7650
content:
"In situ adaptation options are frequently the preference of communities \r over resettlement (Jamero et al., 2017) and in many documented cases, \r relocation--both planned and autonomous--is an adaptation option \r of last resort due to high economic and sociocultural cost (McNamara \r and Des Combes, 2015; Jamero et al., 2017; Crichton et al., 2020). In \r small islands, there is medium evidence and high agreement that the \r degree of migrant agency and choice in decisions about whether to \r move, where, when and how is an important determinant of success and \r therefore 'adaptiveness' (see Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter \r 7; McNamara and Des Combes, 2015; Hino et  al., 2017; McMichael \r et al., 2019; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019a; Bertana, 2020). Two case \r studies of community relocation in Fiji (Denimanu and Vunidogoloa \r villages) recommend that participatory inclusion of all social groups \r in the relocation planning process, including in planning for livelihood \r [...]"


id: 4c3a931377ca729548be0feada1788e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10672
content:
"[...] sustainability in new locations, should be ensured in future planned \r community relocation to foster positive adaptive outcomes (Piggott\u0002McKellar et al., 2019a)."


id: d0c794eb446eff52c1397d5a9f5a03fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34081
content:
"In some small island settings, land reclamation (i.e., land gain through \r infilling) has been implemented for decades to allow for infrastructure \r construction and to address land shortages arising from high \r population growth. For example, land reclamation in Port of Spain, the \r capital city of Trinidad, has long been used as a solution space to meet \r land for housing, industrial development and infrastructure provision \r (Mycoo, 2018b). Likewise, one third of the land area of Male', the \r capital island of the Maldives, results from land reclamation (Naylor, \r 2015). Land reclamation is also common in Pacific atoll countries and \r territories, where it occurs both in urban islands facing high population \r pressure, such as South Tarawa, Kiribati (Biribo and Woodroffe, 2013), \r Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu (Onaka et al., 2017), and Rangiroa Atoll, French \r Polynesia (Duvat et  al., 2019b), and in rural islands, for example, \r [...]"


id: 2b93d9fe27caca109738decf1c86f41b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4924
content:
"[...] Takapoto and Mataiva atolls, French Polynesia (Duvat et al., 2017b). \r In some cases, land reclamation has paved the way for land raising, \r which is increasingly considered to adapt to SLR in small island \r contexts (Figure 15.7). For example, since the 1990s, the capital area of \r the Maldives has been expanded through the construction of a large \r new island, Hulhumale, which is still under construction and is built \r 60 cm higher than Male' to take into account SLR (Hinkel et al., 2018; \r Brown et al., 2020). More generally, in the Maldives, the 2004 Indian "


id: 9d99adb840b5744c1c41333894e6b03b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24966
content:
"There are few examples of highly 'successful' and therefore adaptive \r international resettlement or relocation in response to environmental \r pressures in history. For example, the experiences of Gilbertese \r resettled in the Solomon Islands highlight that tensions with host \r communities over land and resource rights and limited knowledge of \r new environments (such as when communities previously reliant on \r marine resources are resettled in high island locations) can create new \r vulnerabilities (Donner, 2015; Weber, 2016a; Tabe, 2019). Even where \r gradual international relocation is supported and planned through \r policy as in the case of Kiribati's 'migration with dignity' strategy, strong \r cultural connection to land and uncertainty about life in receiving \r communities in Australia and New Zealand means that many remain \r opposed to indefinite or permanent migration (Allgood and McNamara, \r 2017; Hermann and Kempf, 2017). The same challenges could apply \r [...]"


id: 51947639de6022cd1f96675a94360f1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11634
content:
"[...] where domestic migration occurs between significantly different \r cultural, social and physical environments. However, planned migration \r for employment or education can reduce exposure in sending locations \r and spread risk through expanding economic opportunities and \r providing remittances, thus having inadvertent adaptation outcomes "


id: e31713da9c08c572f773c3849fddce95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37249
content:
"Since the 1990s, artificial reefs have been increasingly used in \r small islands to support reef restoration and reduce beach erosion, \r especially in the Caribbean region (e.g., Dominican Republic, Antigua, \r Grand Cayman, Grenada) and Indian Ocean (Maldives, Mauritius) \r (Fabian et  al., 2013; Reguero et  al., 2018). They have been more or \r less successful in reducing the destructive impacts of extreme events, \r depending on their technical characteristics and the local context. \r For example, while it resisted the waves generated by hurricanes \r Georges and Mitch in 1998, the artificial reef (Reef Ball breakwater \r type) implemented at Gran Dominicus Resort, Dominican Republic, \r did not prevent significant beach erosion. By contrast, the coral reef \r restoration project implemented to 'build a beach' on the resort island \r of Ihuru, North Male Atoll, Maldives, was successful as it enabled \r beach expansion and prevented the erosive impacts of the 2004 Indian \r [...]"


id: e8d757970c76826866cb172e9e3d6849
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38317
content:
"Small islands have focused increasingly on EbA approaches and other \r nature-based solutions that bring benefits both for the ecosystems \r and communities (Figure  15.7; Giffin et  al., 2020). There is robust \r evidence on implementation of EbA approaches across small islands, \r yet medium agreement on the exact benefits of these activities \r (Mercer et al., 2012; Doswald et al., 2014; Nalau et al., 2018a) given \r the difficulties in quantifying benefits and the absence of monitoring \r and evaluation frameworks (Doswald et al., 2014). Traditionally, EbA \r activities, especially at national and regional scales, have predominantly \r focused on restoring or conserving coastal and marine ecosystems \r (e.g., coral reefs, mangrove forests and seagrass meadows), with less \r emphasis on the services provided by natural inland forests (Mercer \r et al., 2012). Incorporation of forests is, however, increasing, in most \r cases as components of ridge to reef (Figure 15.4) (or Disaster Risk \r [...]"


id: 5691b780d862b72fab6ac53c85e16c3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12486
content:
"[...] Reduction) projects (limited to medium evidence), and is geared \r towards integrated watershed management to establish downstream \r water security, erosion control and ultimately to protect the health of \r coral reef ecosystems (Forster et al., 2019)."


id: 97faa7076ee6033061214816f6c84b51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23952
content:
"Figure 15.7 |  Adaptation measures implemented to reduce coastal risks in small islands. Panel 1 provides examples of implementation of different types of measures \r aimed at reducing coastal erosion and flooding. The measures include no response (no intervention, widespread in small islands), hard protection through the construction of \r engineering-based structures, accommodation through dwelling and infrastructure raising, planned retreat, advance (i.e., especially island raising) and ecosystem-based measures, \r in three small island regions, the Indian and Pacific oceans and Caribbean. It highlights the prevalence of no response, hard protection and the increasing use of ecosystem-based \r measures. Based on the example of two beach sites in Mauritius (Mon Choisy in the north and Saint-Felix in the south), panel 2 shows that the measures used at a given coastal \r [...]"


id: 3fbe3e3444f868c443cdc111d9f20697
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8408
content:
"[...] site evolve over time (e.g., from no response to hard protection, and then planned retreat and ecosystem-based measures) and that recent DRR (Saint-Felix) and adaptation (Mon \r Choisy) projects often combine several types of measures, including retreat and ecosystem-based measures (Duvat et al., 2020a). Together, panels 1 and 2 emphasise the diversity \r and increasing complexity of the measures implemented in small islands."


id: f1569dfe6cd5ef78c54bc52d65c85d54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39844
content:
"fishers have undertaken adaptation in response to increases in air \r and ocean temperature, increases in wind and changes in rainfall. In \r Antigua, adaptation strategies amongst coastal fishers have included \r investments in improved technologies and equipment, changing \r fishing grounds, and seeking better training and education (Blair and \r Momtaz, 2018). In Efate (Vanuatu) the majority (87%) of the fishermen \r used livelihood diversification as an adaptation strategy whereas \r 53% also searched for new fishing areas as a result of the changing \r conditions (Blair and Momtaz, 2018). In southwest Madagascar, due to \r deteriorated reef conditions, coastal fishermen now go further offshore \r to catch fish or have adapted their fishing techniques, while others \r closer to the tourism markets have opted for livelihood diversification \r (Lemahieu et al., 2018). Coastal fishers in the Dominican Republic have \r also diversified their livelihoods and use local knowledge in changing \r [...]"


id: 78e13ea8a077c1a6cdd2a91eb5f272a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18456
content:
"[...] fishing practices and locations depending on environmental conditions \r (Karlsson and McLean, 2020). In the future, increased inland rainfall \r could, for example, provide new areas for inland aquaculture in the \r Solomon Islands as an adaptation strategy and also reduce pressure \r from coastal fishing (Dey et al., 2016)."


id: 8a81b9994402158a0def40feb55e21c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21541
content:
"Community-based adaptation (CBA) is best described as a \r 'community-led process based on meaningful engagement and \r proactive involvement of local individuals and organisations' \r (Remling and Veitayaki, 2016; p. 380). Enabling CBA projects to \r succeed relies on gaining a good understanding of the sociopolitical \r context within which the communities operate, including such key \r issues as land tenure arrangements and ownerships, gender and \r decision-making processes that operate on the ground (Nunn, 2013; \r Buggy and McNamara, 2016; Crichton and Esteban, 2018; Delevaux \r et al., 2018; Nalau et al., 2018b; Parsons et al., 2018; McNamara et al., \r 2020; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2020).This also includes the broader and \r often more urgent development issues that impact on communities' \r well-being (Piggott-McKellar et  al., 2020). Community-based \r projects demonstrate in the Pacific that communities' vulnerabilities, \r [...]"


id: 3f8997e24594783086ef5035e67a2929
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8366
content:
"[...] priorities and needs might be a better and more effective entry point \r for climate adaptation than framing projects solely around climate \r change (Remling and Veitayaki, 2016; Weir, 2020).This is supported by \r a recent review of 32 CBA initiatives in the Pacific where initiatives \r that were locally funded and implemented were more successful than \r those with external international funding (McNamara et  al., 2020). \r Initiatives that integrated EbA and climate awareness raising also \r performed better (McNamara et al., 2020)."


id: 529b81e0a7e1d60e0e07ada03086767e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11815
content:
"In the agricultural sector in Jamaica, adaptation strategies include \r varying expenditure on inputs (e.g., fertilisers, chemicals, labour), \r diversifying cropping patterns, expanding or prioritising other \r cash crops (e.g., fruits and vegetables), engaging in small-scale \r livestock husbandry (Guido et al., 2018), and investing in irrigation \r technologies due to increased drought and infrequent rainfall (Popke \r et  al., 2016). In many higher-elevation islands within the Pacific, \r including Vanuatu and Fiji, communities continue to use to varying \r degrees traditional adaptive strategies designed to reduce their \r vulnerability to tropical cyclones. These include planting a diversity \r of different crops within household and communal gardens, locating \r gardens in different areas within their customary lands to ensure that \r not all crops are destroyed by an extreme event, and the storage \r and preservation of certain foodstuffs (so-called famine foods) \r [...]"


id: 63e2eddf3a4fa9e313525808aecabb7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14860
content:
"[...] (Campbell, 2014b; McMillen et al., 2014; Le De et al., 2018; Moncada \r and Bambrick, 2019)."


id: 2731789b570826ea0abfd1ef548a1860
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4058
content:
"Many small islands, especially those with the highest risks and the \r least resources, remain highly challenged in building and sustaining \r integrated, people-centred, end-to-end early warning systems (EWS) \r that are fully functional across the four interrelated components \r of EWS. Warning dissemination and communication, and disaster \r preparedness and response capacities are particular components \r of EWS requiring strengthening in SIDS (WMO, 2020). More recent \r assessments of early warning capabilities in the Caribbean highlight \r improvements in EWS for weather, water and climate over time (WMO \r et al., 2018; Mahon et al., 2019). However, progress has been uneven \r across hazards, governance levels and spatial and temporal scales, with \r more advanced development of some sub-systems and EWS pillars than \r others. Significant progress has been made in the area of detection, \r monitoring, analysis and forecasting of severe weather systems but \r [...]"


id: 9ae037798b94993cc82d33180a3369fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24492
content:
"[...] there is a need to strengthen this area for other climate-related hazards \r such as wildfires, localised intense rainfall, floods, as well as heatwaves \r and droughts, which become more important in a changing climate. \r Assessments also point to specific deficiencies including significant gaps \r in the area of disaster risk knowledge--particularly the development \r of risk assessments, the variable capacity for interpreting scientific \r warning products across states, as well as effective communication of \r warning messages to populations at risk (Lumbroso et al., 2016; WMO \r et al., 2018)."


id: 63f33f88d393ae3fbc3b9db01a044631
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14873
content:
"Evidence from Vanuatu shows that climate risk to tourism destinations \r is influenced by multiple, interconnected economic, sociocultural, \r political and environmental factors suggesting that holistic approaches \r are needed to reduce risk and avoid negative knock-on effects (Loehr, \r 2019). Tourism can strengthen mechanisms that reduce vulnerability \r and increase adaptive capacity of the wider destination, such as \r providing adaptation finance, investing in education and capacity \r building, and working with nature (Loehr, 2019). Examples include \r numerous EBA initiatives in the Caribbean including marine-protected \r areas in St. Lucia and Jamaica (Mycoo, 2018a). In Vanuatu, tourism \r businesses are engaged in establishing marine-protected areas to \r address multiple risks from climate change, population growth and \r development (Loehr et al., 2020). In the Seychelles, coral restoration \r programmes and mangrove reforestation are promoted through \r [...]"


id: 27898f0d64330f29a342ec03656005e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4133
content:
"[...] public-private partnerships, generating new opportunities for wetland\u0002tourism livelihoods (Khan and Amelie, 2015)."


id: abfc026476ab12ab507bb628469f195b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27501
content:
"The willingness of tourism businesses to finance adaptation measures \r varies. Islands have developed building codes which consider impacts \r from SLR but these are often not enforced (Hess and Kelman, 2017). \r In cases where tourist resorts have been part of climate adaptation \r projects, such as funding for hard coastal protection infrastructure, \r the resort owners find that these diminish the aesthetics of the beach \r destination (Crichton and Esteban, 2018). Adaptation taxes and levies \r imposed on tourism can provide funding (Mycoo, 2018a) as The \r Environmental Protection and Tourism Improvement Fund Act, 2017 of \r British Virgin Islands shows (Smith, 2017). A lack of interaction between \r tourism and climate change decision makers is a commonly identified \r issue (Becken, 2019; Mahadew and Appadoo, 2019; Scott et al., 2019). \r A number of adaptation measures are recommended in the literature \r such as increasing climate change research, education and institutional \r [...]"


id: e2477568672ba4aae625b291dce542e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37096
content:
"[...] capacities; product and market diversification away from coastal \r tourism to include terrestrial-based experiences and heritage tourism; \r and mainstreaming adaptation in tourism policies and vice versa (e.g., \r to include appropriate planning guidelines for tourism development, \r coastal setbacks and environmental impact assessments (Mycoo, \r 2018a; Becken et al., 2020) Thomas et al., 2020; van der Veeken et al., \r 2016)."


id: 3171cfa07704f1c86b95df93579bfa59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5939
content:
"There is increasing recognition and commitment at global \r (Section  3.6.3.2.4; WMO, 2014; UN, 2015c; UN, 2015b; UN, 2015a), \r regional (CCCCC, 2012; CDEMA, 2014; SPC, 2016; SPREP, 2017; CIMH \r et al., 2019) and national levels (SPREP, 2016a; WMO, 2016a) of the \r importance of climate services in supporting adaptation decision\u0002making in small islands (medium evidence, high agreement). A number \r of SIDS-focused climate service programmes have emerged, especially \r in the Caribbean and Pacific (Group, 2015; Martin et al., 2015; SPREP, \r 2016b; WMO, 2016b; WMO, 2018a; WMO, 2018b) and at least one \r SIDS--Dominica--has been prioritised as a pilot implementation \r country under the Global Framework for Climate Services (WMO, \r 2016a). As is the case globally, climate services focused on decision\u0002making at seasonal (3-6  month) timescales has thus far been the \r focus of investment in small islands. Less attention has been given \r [...]"


id: 7762d90ab6a54b14de3346e1fcf01561
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"[...] to investments in and assessments of climate services for decision\u0002making at longer timescales (Vaughan et al., 2018)."


id: 8482a72df0a8646a34438c2be9f98fc5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Adaptation governance is also complicated further by the multitude \r of stakeholders involved, with differing agendas and priorities. In \r the Bahamas, private properties have significant say in how and \r what adaptation measures they decide to pursue and are not well \r regulated, with the tourism sector in particular dominated mainly by \r external investors (Petzold et  al., 2018). Social organisations, such \r as the churches, which have significant influence in many Oceanic \r countries, are engaging in climate change discussions and governance. \r Many churches report, however, being constrained to act on climate \r adaptation due to lack of financial resources, low levels of professional \r knowledge on adaptation, and their members not perceiving climate \r change as an urgent risk (Rubow and Bird, 2016). Actors such as \r military services in the Indian and Pacific oceans also control a high \r number of assets in vulnerable locations and will need to integrate \r [...]"


id: 767fca64fe2a5a67373d935c875059a4
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"Specific governance-related barriers for effective adaptation include: \r lack of coordination between government departments and sectors \r and limited policy integration (Scobie, 2016; Robinson, 2018b), lack of \r ownership of adaptation implementation in cases where communities \r or national governments have not been part of the adaptation decision \r process (Conway and Mustelin, 2014; Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; \r Prance, 2015; Nunn and Kumar, 2018; Parsons and Nalau, 2019), and \r difficulties in integrating IKLK in adaptation initiatives. Specific barriers \r to effective sustained adaptation in the Pacific include variable climate \r change awareness among decision makers, and the preference for \r short-term responses rather than longer-term transformative ones \r (Nunn et al., 2014). These barriers also stem from donors' preferencing \r their own priorities that do not necessarily fit the country priorities or \r context (Conway and Mustelin, 2014; Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; Prance, \r [...]"


id: 9c09a394553035bbf4fa0a4611e37e21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] 2015), which has led to increasing calls for effective community/cultural \r engagement in adaptation, especially through CBA and EbA (Nalau \r et al., 2018b). In cases where recovery efforts are framed as purely a \r matter of infrastructure other important aspects, such as livelihoods \r and gender, are more easily overlooked in adaptation (Turner et  al., \r 2020)."


id: 9b12177dace109955d60a2f2f3265f37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Limited regional cooperation across sub-national island jurisdictions \r (jurisdictions with semi-autonomous status) along with limited \r regional-scale climate information are also stymying action \r (Petzold and Magnan, 2019). This is a concern given the need \r for pooled governance in response to capacity constraints across \r small jurisdictions (Dornan, 2014; Kelman, 2018). There is also an \r insufficient understanding of the role of regional and international \r actors such as the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre and \r the Global Environment Facility, respectively (Middelbeek et al., 2014). \r Sometimes external pressure and, for example, transregional trade \r agreements are 'useful for reducing unsustainable local sociopolitical \r arrangements' as seen in the Solomon Islands regarding fisheries \r management within the concept of blue economy (Keen et al., 2018, p. \r 338). Similarly, in Samoa, the World Bank's Pilot Program for Climate \r [...]"


id: 6e97e2dea4a29ff0348189ee3dfc1a86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] Resilience (PPCR) and the Adaptation Fund's Enhancing Resilience of \r Samoa's Coastal Communities to Climate Change illustrate successful \r examples of multilevel governance due to their programmatic and \r pragmatic approaches versus project-based approaches (McGinn \r and Solofa, 2020). Enabling factors in these programmes relate to \r strategic placements of funds and responsibilities in the relevant \r ministries, alignment with national priorities and pre-existing \r plans, pooling funding to fill existing finance gaps, and increased \r awareness across scales and departments of synergies and gaps \r between different initiatives (McGinn and Solofa, 2020). Initiatives \r such as the Pacific Adaptive Capacity Framework (Warrick et  al., \r 2017) and regional strategies such as the Framework for the Disaster \r and Climate Resilient Development in the Pacific (FRDP) enable the \r localising of climate adaptation into cultural contexts in an integrated \r manner (SPC, 2016)."


id: e8aee7a53752d0e673c4757e35719620
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"In the Caribbean small islands such as Jamaica and St. Lucia, and also \r in the Pacific, barriers to mainstreaming adaptation include competing \r development priorities, the absence of planning frameworks or \r 'undetected' overlaps in existing frameworks, serious governance flaws \r linked to the prevalence of corruption and corrupt people in political \r and public life, and insufficient manpower and human resources, linked \r to countries' financial capacity (Robinson, 2018b). In addition, the lack \r of strong governance mechanisms for urban planning has contributed \r to urban sprawl and expansion that has increased the number of \r informal settlements, which together with population growth are \r driving Caribbean small islands to their limits (Enriquez-de-Salamanca, \r 2018; Mycoo, 2018a; 2018b). In the Pacific, only a few countries have \r embedded climate change adaptation in existing legislation despite \r the overall regional agreement to A New Song for Coastal Fisheries--\r [...]"


id: 400d9ea891e953b091308c8240868913
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] Pathways to Change: The Noumea Strategy to improve coastal fisheries \r management in a changing climate (Gourlie et al., 2018). Many climate \r change-specific initiatives across small islands have a unidirectional \r focus on climate risks and shift limited resources away from other \r important development objectives (Baldacchino, 2018). Local-level \r plans are often overlooked: For example, in Mauritius, local-level \r climate adaptation plans are currently nearly non-existent while district \r councils have rarely been successful in even accessing international \r adaptation finance (Williams et al., 2020). In Samoa, several national\u0002level programs on adaptation have had difficulties in engaging with \r the local level even if the decision-making powers on actual land \r management sit within the communities (McGinn and Solofa, 2020)."


id: f316919a9df06153eb18b5a2cb689e36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Countries including the Seychelles and Maldives have developed \r national climate change plans that recognise linkages to food \r security, health and DRR, although these face significant resourcing \r issues when it comes to implementation (Techera, 2018). National\u0002level plans, such as National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs), \r increasingly could include local government engagement and have \r a stronger focus on urban centres and adaptation (Mycoo, 2018a). \r Building codes act as supportive enablers for adaptation governance: \r Requiring more hurricane-resistant housing in the Caribbean, including \r incentives for informal settlements to build in a more resilient \r manner, can achieve multiple development and adaptation outcomes \r (Mycoo, 2018a). In Dominica, a Climate Resilience Executing Agency \r of Dominica (CREAD) established in 2019, aims to enable stronger \r climate resilience by bringing all sectors and services together for more \r [...]"


id: 796b91af43a8dd6dbc2e6d6ae2771ddd
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] effective coordination (Turner et  al., 2020). Improvements in cross\u0002sectoral and cross-agency coordination are creating opportunities for \r improved disaster preparedness and resilience measures in Vanuatu \r (Webb et al., 2015). A range of mechanisms also exist in the tourism \r industry: Adaptation taxes and improved building regulations could \r reduce risk drastically, for example, in the Caribbean region (Mycoo, \r 2018a)."


id: 9bcad78a0fc6bb45c418d2943c5d059a
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"In small island states, water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure are \r particularly vulnerable to climate change, with impacts on the burden of \r diarrhoeal diseases. The resilience of types of sanitation infrastructure \r in urban and rural households in the Solomon Islands differs under \r scenarios of increased rainfall and flooding versus decreased rainfall \r and drought, reinforcing the centrality of taking the local context into \r account during adaptation decision-making (Fleming et  al., 2019). \r Healthcare facilities, including hospitals, clinics and community care \r centres, are vulnerable to extreme weather and climate events, such \r as flooding and TCs, and to climate-related outbreaks of infectious \r diseases that overwhelm their capacity to provide critical services \r (WHO, 2020). These facilities may lack functioning infrastructure \r and trained health workforce, and be predisposed to inadequate \r energy supplies and water, sanitation and waste management \r [...]"


id: 1e599355df1abe84034adc66ab003b68
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"[...] services. Adaptation is needed to build resilience and contribute to \r environmental sustainability."


id: d88b7f0a9509a2cbd528b980b2d2704c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"The term 'health systems' refers to the organisation of people, \r institutions and resources that work to protect and promote \r population health. The two components of health systems are \r public health and healthcare; adaptation is needed in both to \r develop climate-resilient health systems (WHO, 2015). Adaptation \r measures focus on each of the building blocks of health systems, \r including leadership and governance; a knowledgeable health \r workforce; health information systems; essential medical products \r and technologies; health service delivery; and financing. Many small \r island states have policies to manage climate-sensitive health risks, \r although ministries of health are largely unprepared to adapt to a \r changing climate because few programmes take climate change \r into account (McIver et  al., 2016). Particularly vulnerable groups, \r such as Indigenous Peoples, are often inadequately represented in \r adaptation planning processes and implementation, resulting in less \r [...]"


id: 63831076bb9f5f19190f6e914777a70f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"A range of climate-sensitive diseases pose threats to island \r communities. A vulnerability and adaptation assessment conducted \r in Dominica identified vector-, water- and food-borne diseases and \r food security as priority threats from climate change (Schnitter et al., \r 2019). Short-term adaptation options include strengthening solid \r waste management and enforcing current legislation; increasing public \r awareness; training health sector staff; improving the reliability and \r safety of water-storage practices; improving climate change and health \r data collection methods and enhancing environmental monitoring; \r enhancing the integration of climate services into health decision\u0002making; strengthening the organisational structure of emergency \r response; and ensuring sufficient resources and surge capacity. \r Longer-term adaptation options include developing early warning and \r response systems for climate-sensitive health risks; enhancing data \r [...]"


id: b92d2c3219732b0295e640d4922a57d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"(Weir and Pittock, 2017; Magnan and Duvat, 2018). There are growing \r concerns among policy- and decision-makers in small islands about the \r current levels and forms of adaptation finance, and about countries' \r experience with accessing it (Robinson and Dornan, 2017). In the \r Caribbean, 38% of flows were concessional loans and 62% were \r grants (Atteridge et al., 2017); the situation in the Atlantic and Indian \r oceans is starkly different--nearly 75% of the flows were in the form \r of concessional loans and grants accounted for the remaining 25% \r (Canales et al., 2017). This raises questions about fairness and justice \r for small islands having to finance adaptation to climate impacts \r to which they have made a negligible contribution. In the Pacific, \r 86% of aid was delivered as project-based support (Atteridge and \r Canales, 2017), which can undermine the long-term sustainability of \r adaptation interventions (Conway and Mustelin, 2014; Remling and \r [...]"


id: 66980ae42877a1ef4d9a216d1dd4b71e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 15307
content:
"[...] Veitayaki, 2016; Atteridge and Canales, 2017). Direct budget support \r was rare (Atteridge and Canales, 2017), signalling the importance of \r works such as Rambarran (2018) that support cross-regional lesson\u0002learning by, for example, showcasing the experience of Seychelles \r with successfully devising innovative financing mechanisms for \r supporting adaptation and conservation goals, and reducing its public \r debt. Regional catastrophe risk insurance schemes, however, such as \r Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company under the World Bank's \r Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) \r Program are trying to enable a regional effort in increasing accessibility \r to insurance (PCRAFI, 2017) as does the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk \r Insurance Facility, although these funds are still rather small compared \r to the needs across the countries (Handmer and Nalau, 2019)."


id: 2c2747667adc3a042f74b8d962bfda23
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"In Vanuatu, discussions are ongoing on increasing insurance availability \r for TCs and droughts, but standardisation of housing designs to get \r insurance can become difficult where the costs make it prohibitive and \r run counter to traditional building designs and materials (Baarsch and \r Kelman, 2016). Empirical evidence from Belize, Grenada, Jamaica and \r St. Lucia indicates that there are also other factors why people do not \r take insurance, including 'the cost of premiums (44%), lack of trust \r in insurance companies (27%), having never considered insurance \r (26%), a lack of need for insurance (25%) and a lack of knowledge \r of insurance (22%)' (Lashley and Warner, 2013, p. 108). Increasing \r trust could be addressed by seeking out domestic banks or credit \r unions with whom people are already engaging with, while also using \r social marketing campaigns to raise awareness of weather-related \r insurance to address knowledge gaps and lack of awareness of these \r [...]"


id: d4f5c77d84b4c7ff0739d9b87f30c3d2
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"[...] tools (Lashley and Warner, 2013). In Dominica, many coastal fishers \r are suspicious of insurance schemes given past experiences of not \r being paid out on time or having to disclose catch data (Turner et al., \r 2020). Yet, insurance is not capable of addressing all kinds of losses \r and damages accruing from climate impacts and should be used as an \r adaptation strategy in combination with other strategies (Lashley and \r Warner, 2013)."


id: a303dac8d18d19d0f640960a32576d4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25893
content:
"Microfinance is increasingly viewed as a positive mechanism to improve \r access to climate adaptation funding (Di Falco and Sharma, 2018). In \r the Caribbean, a significant barrier in accessing climate finance relates \r to bureaucratic structures, which means that money intended for \r communities does not reach them (Mycoo, 2018a). Many adaptation \r projects even at the community level have upfront costs that need \r to be supported, especially in communities where there is little hard \r cash in use (Remling and Veitayaki, 2016). Despite such challenges, \r communities in the Pacific region have used 'cashless adaptation' for \r a long time, which involves trading of services and items as a form of \r indigenous microfinance (Nunn and Kumar, 2019b). Social networks \r also function as a source of informal microfinance where extended \r family members send back remittances from overseas to their families \r and communities especially after disasters. In Samoa, indigenous \r [...]"


id: 3b6d8f666a027bd9aae1b490bc062c72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] tourism operators receive remittances from overseas family members \r (Crichton and Esteban, 2018; Parsons et  al., 2018), with similar \r processes observed among atoll communities in the Solomon Islands \r (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014), Vanuatu (Handmer and Nalau, 2019) and \r Jamaica (Carby, 2017). However, the role of migration and remittances \r is still poorly understood; it is difficult to quantify the informal flows \r and understand the extent to which they support effective adaptation \r (limited evidence, high agreement) (Campbell, 2014a; Parsons et al., \r 2018; Handmer and Nalau, 2019)."


id: ddcec17f3e95381939826cf03170ab1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 36286
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"Insurance cover is a critical question in small islands. For example, in \r Vanuatu, some companies do not 'cover storm damage from the sea or \r high tides...which is not helpful for properties damaged by a tropical \r cyclone's storm surge' (Baarsch and Kelman, 2016, p. 6). There is also \r limited access to insurance schemes due to lower demand in small \r markets (Petzold and Magnan, 2019) especially when many people \r do not have high cash-based incomes and likely cannot pay insurance \r premiums (Baarsch and Kelman, 2016). In St. Lucia and Grenada \r (via the Caribbean Oceans and Aquaculture Sustainability Facility), \r discussions are ongoing with regard to national-level parametric \r insurance, underpinned by financing from the US State Department, \r to help fishing communities recover more quickly following the \r passage of TCs in the future (Sainsbury et al., 2019; Turner et al., 2020). \r Likewise, Reguero et al. (2020) have suggested a resilience insurance \r [...]"


id: 979df6fbde9488e5bf2f753ae250284e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] mechanism that could in theory reduce climate-related losses and \r damages through investments in nature-based adaptation projects \r (e.g., coral reef restoration and potentially mangrove restoration)."


id: 4989950decabb2355100b531e3e8f4fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 10165
content:
"Workshops and training are seen as crucial at the local scale to build \r communities' capacity to take action and to integrate climate change \r considerations to the broader development processes (Remling and \r Veitayaki, 2016), although purely workshop-based short-term capacity \r building in adaptation has been questioned (Conway and Mustelin, \r 2014; Lubell and Niles, 2019). More interactive community engagement \r strategies could include 'participatory three-dimensional modelling \r (P3DM), participatory video, development of photo journals, and civil \r society plans' (Beckford, 2018, p. 46) that enables broader engagement. \r In Fiji, Laje Rotuma youth ecocamps have been used to engage younger \r Fijians to understand adaptation and increasing environmental \r stewardship with good outcomes (McNaught et  al., 2014). In Palau, \r Camp Ebiil provides a culturally based platform for younger generations \r to learn about nature and culture in an interactive camp (Singeo, 2011). \r [...]"


id: b6558fe1c5dda1bf4344b01d8b4db4a0
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"[...] Vanuatu's Volunteer Rainfall Observer Network, in turn, engages \r volunteers to record their rainfall observations, demonstrating the use \r of IKLK that can be integrated with contemporary weather forecasting \r (Chand et al., 2014). Likewise, initiatives such as ePOP Petites Ondes \r Participatives aim to develop a citizen network to share environmental \r information (e.g., via mini-videos on smartphones). Across the Pacific, \r projects such as the European Union Pacific Technical Vocational \r Education and Training on Sustainable Energy and Climate Change \r Adaptation Project (EU PacTVET) have sought to increase the capacity \r of Pacific islanders in disaster risk management and climate adaptation \r (Hemstock et al., 2018)."


id: e8a9d58086d4af0aa4d59f335b6b12b8
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Culture can be defined as 'material and non-material symbols that \r express collective meaning' (Adger et al., 2014, p. 762) and includes \r worldviews and values, how individuals and communities relate to \r their environment, and what they perceive to be at risk and in need \r of adaptation (McNaught et al., 2014; Nunn et al., 2014; Remling and \r Veitayaki, 2016; Nunn et  al., 2017b; Granderson, 2017; Neef et  al., \r 2018; Oakes, 2019). In small islands, culture plays an important role \r in individual and community decision-making on adaptation both as \r an enabling factor and as a barrier (robust evidence, high agreement) \r (Nunn et al., 2017b; Parsons et al., 2017; Neef et al., 2018; Piggott\u0002McKellar et al., 2020). The concept of Vai Nui as the interconnectedness \r of Pacific Islanders continues to support the collective agency to \r plan and undertake adaptation efforts in the region (Hayward et al., \r 2019). In Samoa, the principles of Fa'asamoa (the Samoan way of life) \r [...]"


id: e7efb99b5ceebdcd22141c7f7850ceb8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 38117
content:
"[...] impacts on how decisions are made, including the role of the aiga\r (extended family) that is a web of local, national and transnational \r kinship networks (Parsons et  al., 2018). Traditional village council \r structures and land stewardship enable an expanded range of coastal \r adaptation options in Samoa, including potential relocation, but at the \r same time may limit participation of all social groups in adaptation \r decision-making (Crichton et al., 2020). In Dominica, in the aftermath \r of Hurricane Maria (2017), social capital in the form of transboundary \r nearby island networks enabled some communities to recover faster \r from the disaster including access to more livelihood opportunities and \r assets (Turner et al., 2020)."


id: f58c63816ab2ae85e334b7762a137555
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 40565
content:
"In Fiji, a study on adaptive behaviour and intention to invest in more \r adaptive portfolios found that the intent for adaptive behaviour \r increased with the supply of climate information (Di Falco and Sharma, \r 2018). In the Pacific, high-performing CBA initiatives included climate \r awareness raising that equipped people with knowledge to understand \r occurring environmental changes and what to do (McNamara et al., \r 2020). Lack of information can increase community vulnerability. \r Remote indigenous farming communities in St. Vincent, in the \r Caribbean, for example, have already observed decreased rainfall \r and increases in temperatures, but they have been largely excluded \r from agricultural training that includes information in how to improve \r agricultural strategies in times of climatic shocks and how to prepare \r for changing climatic conditions (Smith and Rhiney, 2016). In the \r Bahamas, cultural background, income and education levels impact \r [...]"


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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] the extent to which people are aware of climate risks (Petzold et al., \r 2018). In Dominica, access to information critical to fisheries is noted \r as a significant challenge, including data collection, its management \r and human resources in building capacity to process and use this \r information for evidence-based decision-making (Turner et al., 2020)."


id: 15e35f39fa8b7009e117ffe2c351e554
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Yet, culture is often overlooked in adaptation policies and plans. For \r example, in the National Communications of 16 SIDS, only one country \r (Cook Islands) reported adaptation actions that addressed social issues, \r culture and heritage (Robinson, 2018b). Externally driven adaptation \r efforts in rural small island communities that exclude community \r priorities, ignore or undervalue IKLK, and are based on secular \r Western/global worldviews (Donner and Webber, 2014; Prance, 2015; \r McNamara et al., 2016; Nunn et al., 2017b; Schwebel, 2017; Mallin, \r 2018; Nunn and McNamara, 2019; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019b) are \r often less successful (high agreement, medium evidence). The World \r Bank Kiribati Adaptation Program (KAP), for example, builds mainly \r on Western knowledge and science despite consultations with the \r Kiribati communities (Prance, 2015). Yet, in many contexts, most land \r and knowledge are embedded in traditional governance and culture \r [...]"


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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] while adaptation plans and decisions are made elsewhere on how that \r land should be used and what knowledge is used (high agreement) \r (Nunn, 2013; Prance, 2015; Charan et al., 2017; Nalau et al., 2018a; \r Parsons et al., 2018; McGinn and Solofa, 2020)."


id: 9d1cd0b5169b260923e91e3bfdd4758
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24877
content:
"Despite widespread international evidence that the impacts of \r climate change and disaster events often negatively affect women \r (and gender minorities) more than men (McSherry et al., 2014; Aipira \r et al., 2017; Gaillard et al., 2017), attention to gender equality as a \r concept is still only 'embryonic in climate change adaptation in the \r Pacific', and although recognised in some policies and project designs, \r it is not well supported by on-the-ground actions or well monitored \r (Aipira et al., 2017, p. 237). Many Pacific small island climate change \r adaptation policies do not mainstream gender across the activities \r (Aipira et  al., 2017), with women's groups being excluded from \r climate grants due to patriarchal formal and informal governance \r structures, lack of resources, less access to educational and training \r schemes and no track record (or receiving grants or meeting grant \r milestones) (McLeod et  al., 2018). However, Pacific women identify \r [...]"


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"[...] several strategies that enable them to adapt to climate change more \r effectively. These include the recognition and support of women's IKLK \r by governments, researchers and NGOs; increasing women's access \r to climate change funding and support from organisations to allow \r them to meet the requirements of international climate change grants; \r and specific education and training to women's groups to allow them \r to develop strategic action plans, mission statements, learn financial \r reporting requirements as well as general leadership and institutional \r training (McLeod et al., 2018). These and other measures could enable \r a broader representation and participation in adaptation processes \r despite cultural constraints (Table 15.7 on Enabling Conditions)."


id: e56a62c667c557506bca60e2db089011
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"The cultural context and sources of knowledge are myriad and diverse \r in small islands. Community members often use both IKLK as well as \r Western scientific-based weather forecasts to take actions to prepare \r for extreme weather events (Chand et al., 2014; Johnston, 2015; Janif \r et  al., 2016; Granderson, 2017; Kelman et  al., 2017), with specific \r examples from Niue, Tonga, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands (high \r agreement, high evidence) (Chand et al., 2014; Chambers et al., 2017; \r Chambers et al., 2019). In Samoa, people keep particular areas reserved \r for disaster times such as TC seasons (Kuruppu and Willie, 2015), while \r in Vanuatu, IKLK indicators for TCs include mango trees flowering early \r and turtles going further inland to lay their eggs (Chand et al., 2014). \r IKLK are, however, not evenly distributed within communities due to \r IKLK being traditional intellectual property of particular roles in the \r [...]"


id: 2cbba83fa5418e147618a4d6a84042b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] villages (e.g., weathermen in Vanuatu), and not available to other \r community members or external actors directly (Chand et al., 2014; \r Prance, 2015). In Tongoa Island, Vanuatu, communities are finding, \r however, that their IKLK-based seasonal calendars are out of sync \r given the changes in climatic conditions (Granderson, 2017), while \r erosion of IKLK remains a concern across most small island nations \r (Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; Granderson, 2017; Beckford, 2018)."


id: cba9e73c51924090ee711ff082ccc41a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Not all IKLK and other knowledge are necessarily helpful and IKLK can \r lead to maladaptation (Mercer et  al., 2012; Beckford, 2018). Elders \r from the Chuuk State (Federated States of Micronesia; Elders from \r Atafu Atoll, 2012), for instance, assign blame for changeable weather \r patterns, destructive typhoons and loss of biodiversity to people's failure \r to maintain and employ their IKLK. Fatalism (belief that disasters are \r God's will) is still reported as a major cultural barrier to adaptation. In \r Maldives, fatalism decreases direct adaptation action and influences \r perceptions of climate risks (Shakeela and Becken, 2015) while \r indigenous communities in St. Vincent do not prepare for hurricanes or \r climatic shocks for the same reason (Smith and Rhiney, 2016). In Oceania, \r Christianity and the church play an important role in how issues, such as \r climate change, are communicated and thought about (Rubow and Bird, \r [...]"


id: 3e18b002f7bbd2928c253ded66e4e2a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] 2016; Nunn et al., 2017b), including the Noah and flood story used as a \r justification that there is no need to worry about SLR (Rubow and Bird, \r 2016). New emerging forms of eco-theology (theology that connects \r humans with land, sea and sky), however, situate climate change as part \r of environmental stewardship (Rubow and Bird, 2016) making churches \r active partners in caring for the environment."


id: fc7dca328e4b0796656e152c777982a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In the context of small islands, climate justice research is expanding \r beyond initial debates about nation-states responsibilities for the \r causes and responses to climate change, to demonstrate complex and \r dynamic intergenerational and multiscalar dilemmas of climate justice \r (Ferdinand, 2018; Sheller, 2018; Baptiste and Devonish, 2019; Look \r et al., 2019; Douglass and Cooper, 2020; Kotsinas, 2020; Sheller, 2020). \r In Caribbean SIDS, research highlights how intersecting external and \r internal socioeconomic and political processes are leading marginalised \r populations to become increasingly socially and economically \r disadvantaged and politically marginalised, which in turn heightens \r climate vulnerability and impedes sustainable development efforts \r (Baptiste and Devonish, 2019) (Moulton and Machado, 2019; Gahman \r and Thongs, 2020; Rhiney, 2020; Duvat et al., 2021b). Inequity extends \r to how development and disaster aid was coordinated and distributed \r [...]"


id: 92db21b27dd2ad3a74de1fda4c202b39
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Observed changes--including increases in air and ocean temperatures, increases in storm surges, heavy rainfall \r events, and possibly more intense tropical cyclones--are already reducing the number and quality of ecosystem \r services, thereby causing the disruption of human livelihoods, damage to buildings and infrastructure, and loss \r of economic activities and cultural heritage on small islands. Widespread observed impacts include severe coral \r reef bleaching events, such as that associated with the 2015-2016 El Nino season, the most damaging on record \r worldwide. Additionally, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was unusually characterised by sequential severe TCs \r that resulted in widespread cyclone-induced damage to ecosystems from the very interior of small islands to those \r of the ocean waters that surround them as well as damage to human settlements and economic activities within \r [...]"


id: 7feb5bafcd4b14207aa61b309d61a52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] the whole Caribbean region. Although knowledge is limited regarding long-term increases in TC intensity, studies \r have shown that heavy rainfall and intense wind speed of individual TCs were increased by climate change. The \r combination of various climate events, such as TCs, extreme ocean waves, and El Nino or La Nina phases, with SLR \r causes increased coastal flooding, especially on low-lying atoll islands of the Indian and Pacific oceans."


id: 11456e2313282224e9d75b49006b09a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"terrestrial food supplies, biodiversity and ecosystems, and economic activities. It is unlikely that these locations \r would remain habitable unless such impacts are mitigated through reduction of heat-trapping greenhouse gas \r emissions or adaptation solutions that are acceptable for the populations of these islands. Acceptable adaptation \r options may be limited in these locations. Additionally, drought intensity may challenge freshwater security in some \r regions such as the Caribbean. Likewise, remote atoll islands where inhabitants rely on reef-derived food and other \r resources and that are at high risk of widespread coral reef degradation may become uninhabitable. Strategies to \r reduce risk may include substituting the consumption of vulnerable inshore reef resources by developing onshore \r aquaculture (fish farming), or promoting access to tuna and other pelagic fish, and/or importing food to meet \r [...]"


id: 5125c3c47bf7b75b2730fc40a7b7160a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] nutritional needs. However, adoption of these strategies will depend on the acceptance of their local populations."


id: 5756a6f5cd02a7b6b2483827904ddc24
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Where relocation is successful, it is most commonly driven and funded by governments and non-government \r organisations, often within a specially designed policy framework. The Government of Fiji, for example, has \r introduced a relocation framework that specifically develops guidance on relocation processes, with several villages \r already having relocated. Evaluations to date recommend thorough cost--benefit analyses of relocation be \r undertaken before this strategy is pursued. Relocation is often viewed as a 'last resort' adaptation option because \r of high cost and because some sociocultural aspects of life cannot be maintained in locations separated from \r customary land. The Bahamas relocated a community on Family Island from the shoreline to an inland location and \r the community of Boca de Cachon in the Dominican Republic was relocated to higher ground. The Navunievu \r [...]"


id: 1c93cf1214cca992109c288e73325b4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] community (Bua, Fiji) has mandated that every young adult building their family home in the village should do so \r upslope rather than on the regularly flooded coastal flat where the existing village is located. Over the next few \r decades, this will result in the gradual upslope migration of the community, an example of autonomous adaptation. \r Such creative community-grounded solutions hold great promise for future adaptation on small islands, where they \r are undertaken inclusively."


id: e9b0b2d7252846c7ce289622493d708a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation can be a low-cost anticipatory adaptation measure that is often used in small islands. \r It is referred to as a 'no-regret' or 'low-regret' strategy because it is low-costing, brings co-benefits and requires less \r maintenance in contrast to hard engineering structures. Ecosystem-based adaptation is used at different scales and \r in different sectors such as to protect fisheries, farming and tourism assets, and integrates various stakeholders from \r national to local governments and non-governmental agencies. Many islands have implemented ecosystem-based \r adaptation such as watershed management, mangrove replanting and other nature-based solutions to strengthen \r coastal foreshore areas that are subjected to coastal erosion and flooding caused by SLR and changing rainfall \r patterns. For example, mangroves have been planted on several cays in Belize and pandanus trees have been planted \r [...]"


id: f8821abbbfc9015d8b6bdc597d98e282
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] near the coastlines of the Marshall Islands. Agroforestry is another example of ecosystem-based adaptation. Planting \r trees and shrubs in combination with crops has been used to increase resilience of crops to droughts or excessive \r rainfall run-off. Case studies show that people living on islands benefit even further from using ecosystem-based \r adaptation. Their health improves as well as their food and water supply, while risks of disasters caused by extreme \r events are reduced."


id: f49ff545310668d4c79d29d20cb9d98e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Changes in the frequency and severity of TCs or droughts will pose challenges for many islands. For example, \r more pronounced dry seasons, warmer temperatures and greater evaporation could cause plant stress reducing \r productivity and harvests. The impacts of drought may hinder insects and animals from pollinating crops, trees and \r other vegetative food sources on tropical islands. For instance, many agroforestry crops are completely dependent \r on insect pollination, and it is, therefore, important to monitor and recognise how climate change is affecting the \r number and productivity of these insects. Coastal agroforest systems in small islands are important to national \r food security but rely on biodiversity (e.g., insects for pollination services). Biodiversity loss from traditional \r agroecosystems has been identified as one of the most serious threats to food and livelihood security in islands. \r [...]"


id: 872eba4c7e09e8ff6eef2a93d7ec963e
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content:
"[...] Ecosystem-based adaptation practices and diversification of crop varieties are possible solutions."


id: c487ce63824a2127dfa2b12ffd76ab46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31885
content:
"Many studies have proposed biodiversity hotspots based on different \r criteria, taxa and geographic contexts (e.g., Myers et  al., 2000; \r Mittermeier et  al., 2004; Mittermeier et  al., 2011; Williams et  al., \r 2011; Noss et al., 2015; Asaad et al., 2017). A coherent comparative \r assessment of all such schemes is beyond the scope of this chapter \r but is provided in recent reviews (Asaad et  al., 2017; Jefferson and \r Costello, 2019). We base this assessment on the 'WWF Global 200' \r areas of conservation importance (Olson and Dinerstein, 2002). These \r 238 ecoregions have been used in a previous climate risk assessment \r (Warren et  al., 2018b) and cover terrestrial, freshwater and marine \r environments (Table CCP1.1; Figures CCP1.1; CCP1.2). In addition, we \r included terrestrial 'biodiversity hotspots' as defined by Myers et al. \r (2000) and extended later (Mittermeier et  al., 2011; Williams et  al., \r 2011; Noss et  al., 2015). This assessment thus covers the 'Global \r [...]"


id: 1837208cb9716fcc5e7582b18d8b26a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] 200' (hereafter G200) and 'Myers' biodiversity hotspots, rather than \r particular species or ecological systems, such as rainforests, coral \r reefs or the deep sea. Such systems are assessed in Chapters 2 and 3. \r Chapters 2 and 3 also cover observed and projected impacts, changes \r in ecosystem functioning, and species extinction risks at a global level."


id: e853fc29535fccb559d66ede10ce9cb6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Although conservation status has only been assessed globally for about \r 6% of all species (Costello, 2019) and most confirmed extinctions and \r threatened species are terrestrial, a higher proportion of freshwater \r species are threatened. This is reflected in the higher proportion \r of freshwater hotspots impacted by humans (Collen et  al., 2014; \r Costello, 2015; Harrison et al., 2018). The rate of species endemicity \r is exceptionally high in freshwater biogeographic realms (i.e., large \r regions of distinct species composition and endemicity), at 89-96% for \r fish in all but one realm, compared to 11-98% for terrestrial vertebrate \r groups (Leroy et al., 2019) and 17-84% for marine realms (Costello \r et al., 2017). Already, one-third of wetlands have been lost and 9000 \r freshwater species are threatened with extinction without considering \r the effects of climate change (Darwall et al., 2018), and only 13% of \r [...]"


id: eb13ad4a101092167c4b964bbc7d0063
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Based on WGI Interactive Atlas data (Gutierrez et  al., 2021), global \r warming is projected to affect terrestrial hotspots less than non\u0002hotspot areas: 80% less for Myers and 95-96% less for G200 terrestrial \r and freshwater hotspots at global warming of 1.5degC-3degC (medium \r confidence) (Kocsis et  al., 2021). In contrast, warming is projected \r to be 12-13% greater inside than outside marine hotspots (medium \r confidence) (Kocsis et  al., 2021). Precipitation is generally projected \r to increase more in terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity hotspots \r compared to outside them (low confidence) (Kocsis et al., 2021). The \r exception is Myers hotspots, which are projected to have, on average, \r ~28% less precipitation at 1.5degC warming, but ~33% more at 2degC and \r ~65% more at 3degC (low confidence). However, precipitation changes \r are often difficult to assess as many hotspots cover large areas, with \r some areas projected to be wetter and some drier with wide differences \r [...]"


id: afe0085609a96fd02c36005751bef89b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 28181
content:
"Biodiversity hotspots are expected to be especially vulnerable to climate \r change because their endemic species have smaller geographic ranges \r (high confidence) (Sandel et  al., 2011; Brown et  al., 2020; Manes \r et al., 2021). Manes et al. (2021) reviewed over 8000 projections of \r climate change impacts on biodiversity in 232 studies, including 6116 \r projections on endemic, native and introduced species in terrestrial \r (200  studies), freshwater (14  studies) and marine (34  studies) \r environments in biodiversity hotspots. Only half of the hotspots \r had studies on climate change impacts. All measures of biodiversity \r were found to be negatively impacted by projected climate change, \r namely, species abundance, diversity, area, physiology and fisheries \r catch potential (medium confidence). However, introduced species' \r responses were neutral to positive (medium confidence). Land areas \r were projected to be more negatively affected by climate warming \r [...]"


id: b7031c870e68e70e8354d51efbddb763
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] than marine. Land plants, insects, birds, reptiles and mammals were \r all projected to be negatively affected (medium confidence), as well as \r fish, coral reef, benthic, planktonic and other marine species (medium \r confidence)."


id: 600248178f25ec0e63f291099db36fe4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14199
content:
"(Figure CCP1.2b; Halpern et al., 2008; Halpern et al., 2015; Ramirez et al., \r 2018). Although there is a strong overlap of non-climatic and climatic \r impacts in marine ecosystems (Blowes et al., 2019; Bowler et al., 2020), \r the effects suggest that climate change impacts are most severe in \r tropical and northern high-latitude seas (high confidence) (Doney \r et al., 2012; Gattuso et al., 2015; Cheung et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019b). \r Temperature-driven range shifts and range expansions are projected to \r also lead to cascading effects on marine biodiversity through ecological \r interactions (high confidence) (Pecl et  al., 2017; Verges et  al., 2019). \r Cascading effects may be especially pronounced in temperate reefs, \r where tropicalisation could lead to the arrival of herbivorous fish and \r predators previously absent (Verges et al., 2019). However, how these \r indirect effects of climate change on species may change food webs \r [...]"


id: 6957b0c12b002a9a586f8029834c381a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 15800
content:
"[...] and ecosystem function, including carbon sequestration, is unknown. \r Direct and indirect human impacts due to fisheries and pollution can \r also lead to cascading effects that may be additive to climate impacts \r on biodiversity. Destruction of marine biogenic habitats due to trawling \r and dredging and loss of large proportions of marine megafauna, \r particularly fish, mammals, birds and reptiles, alter food webs and \r reduce resilience to additional disturbances, such as those caused by \r climate change (medium evidence, high agreement) (Brander, 2007; \r Wernberg et al., 2011; Ramirez et al., 2017; Cheung et al., 2018; Bates \r et al., 2019; Costello, 2021)."


id: 29725bc6d39253dbd3e96a85eb5e5e98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4510
content:
"In Australia, climate change has been implicated in: drought-induced \r canopy dieback across a range of forest and woodland types due to \r decades of declining rainfall in the southwestern hotspot (H133); fires \r in the palaeo-endemic pencil pine forests (Tasmania H142); declines in \r vertebrates in the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area, which \r overlaps with the eastern part of the northern Australia hotspot \r (H131), related to warming and increased length of the dry season; and \r declines in grass and increases in shrubs in the Bogong High Plains \r (high confidence) (Hoffmann et al., 2019). The Australian Alps have seen \r increased species diversity following retreat of the snow line (Slatyer, \r 2010), replacement of long-lived trees by short-lived shrubs following \r multiple wildfires (Zylstra, 2018), and changing ecological interactions \r due to climate-related snow loss, drought and fires (high confidence) \r [...]"


id: ef57d0a6ab2070d9e5c767bf541e137e
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] (Hoffmann et  al., 2019). While warming is allowing mangroves to \r expand their range in coastal hotspots of Asia and Australia (Ward et al., \r 2016; Hughes et al., 2019a), drought and associated salinity stress has \r killed mangroves in northern Australia hotspots (Babcock et al., 2019)."


id: a4f07be32299c6b34f6e75f318d59445
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 26240
content:
"Most terrestrial species in biodiversity hotspots in North America \r have been projected to be negatively impacted by climate change \r (medium evidence, medium agreement, medium confidence). About \r ~80% of projections for assessed species showed a negative impact \r of climate change, with ~25% at very high risk of extinction (Figure \r CCP1.7; Manes et al., 2021). Alterations to vegetation that would have \r ecosystem-wide impacts, such as a shift from oak-dominated forests to \r predominantly hickory and maple species in the Appalachian Forests \r (H17) (Ma et al., 2016) or the continued shrinking of tundra ecosystems, \r have also been projected. Range shifts have been projected for a variety \r of plants (Beltran et al., 2014; Riordan and Rundel, 2014) and vertebrate \r taxa (Warren et al., 2014; Stralberg et al., 2015; McKelvy and Burbrink, \r 2017). Sizeable range loss, which particularly affects endemic species, \r is projected with higher levels of climate change. Adaptation in the \r [...]"


id: c64dda8bb4fec8a50d5ea0316c9461b8
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] agricultural sector poses an additional risk to remaining wildlife habitat \r (e.g., wine in California: Roehrdanz and Hannah, 2016)."


id: ca8017977591aac7a98aa11a0b060e2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32968
content:
"In Asia, there is a bias in studies towards Indo-Burma (H105, 106, 107, 114, \r 115), followed by Himalaya (H95, 98, 99) and Southeast Asian montane \r tropical and temperate forests. About ~70% of projections for assessed \r species showed a negative impact of climate change, with ~30% at \r very high risk of extinction (medium confidence) (Figure CCP1.7; Manes \r et al., 2021). Impacts include species' range changes, habitat loss for \r endemic plants, expansion of invasive species, decreased connectivity \r and overall species richness decline (high confidence) (DasGupta and \r Shaw, 2013; Telwala et al., 2013; Sridhar et al., 2014; Zomer et al., 2014; \r Ali and Begum, 2015; Aryal et al., 2016). A projected decrease in habitat \r suitability for large species like the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) \r is of concern as alternative habitats are outside protected areas, and \r may lead to human-wildlife conflicts (Farashi and Erfani, 2018). The \r [...]"


id: 839b1b8060096a20ed75a73f156d5dbf
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20299
content:
"[...] few positive impacts of climate change were projected as increases in \r suitable habitat and distribution range for a few endangered plants \r and mammals (medium confidence) (Banag et al., 2015; Shrestha et al., \r 2018). Animals benefiting from increased fruit and seed production in \r Southeast Asian forests during warm El Nino cycles were also projected \r to increase with climate warming (Corlett, 2011)."


id: 1a4c08a299b6357dc3dbcb932a58e49c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1823
content:
"In Central and South America, risks have been assessed in at least \r 24 terrestrial hotspots, especially within the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, \r Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, the most studied hotspots in \r the world in terms of climate change impacts (H47, 44, 15, 16, 20, \r respectively) (Manes et  al., 2021). About 85% of projections for \r assessed species showed a negative impact of climate change (high \r confidence), with ~26% projecting species extinctions (Figure CCP1.7; \r Manes et al., 2021). Projected impacts include contraction or loss of \r species' geographic range, loss of diversity and high species turnover \r (high confidence). Most studies had focused on vertebrates and plants \r in the Atlantic Forest (H47) and Cerrado (H44) (Loyola et al., 2014; de \r Oliveira et al., 2015; Vale et al., 2018; Vasconcelos et al., 2018; Hidasi\u0002Neto et al., 2019; Lima et al., 2019; Lourenco-de-Moraes et al., 2019; \r Vasconcelos and Prado, 2019; Velazco et  al., 2019). Several insect \r [...]"


id: fc8f17bd353e2cb85c7d9d1f00fe4d93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41803
content:
"[...] species are projected to lose suitable climatic conditions, including \r moths in Cerrado (H44) (Khormi and Kumar, 2014). There were \r projected negative impacts on vegetation such as rupestrian grasslands \r in Cerrado (H44) (Fernandes et al., 2018) and tropical and temperate \r forests in Mesoamerica (H15, H16) (Mendoza-Ponce et  al., 2018; \r Mendoza-Ponce et al., 2019). Endemic species face consistent risks of \r decrease in suitable habitat in the Atlantic Forest (H47) (Vale et al., \r 2018), Cerrado (H44) (Vasconcelos, 2014), Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena \r (H28, H23) (Hermes et al., 2018), and Mesoamerica (H15, H16) (Garcia \r et al., 2014; Ramirez-Amezcua et al., 2016). Climate change may also \r benefit invasive plant species in terms of range expansion (Wang et al., \r 2017) and physiology (de Faria et al., 2018) in the region."


id: 911a5b1531d6bf6e6326c0bf511611f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"All projections for assessed species in Australia and New Zealand \r terrestrial biodiversity hotspots showed a negative impact of climate \r change, with half at very high risk of extinction (low confidence) \r (Manes et  al., 2021). Observed impacts in the Australian Alps were \r projected to continue under future climate change (Zylstra, 2018). The \r northern Australia savanna (H131) may experience increased rainfall \r and carbon dioxide due to climate change (Scheiter et al., 2015), and \r the range of exotic grasses was projected to be reduced under climate \r warming (Gallagher et  al., 2009). In Australian tropical wet forests, \r ground-living vertebrates may be more sensitive than arboreal species \r to unstable climates (Scheffers et  al., 2017). Bellard et  al. (2016) \r projected losses of land due to sea level rise in the East Australian \r Forest hotspot (H140), and Gonzalez-Orozco et al. (2016) projected the \r contraction of eucalyptus species towards the coast of the Southwest \r [...]"


id: e7f086cf3652570655e7f28facead9cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] Australia hotspot (H134), exposing them to sea level rise. In New \r Zealand forests (H139), native plants may be replaced by more fire\u0002resistant introduced species following climate change-related fires \r (Perry et  al., 2014). While forest growth is projected to potentially "


id: dc590fea9f19cf04ff39a4ede3b5dde0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36038
content:
"In Europe, including the Mediterranean freshwater hotspots, climate \r change is projected to result in reduced river flow, low oxygen in \r summer, salinity incursions, further eutrophication and spread of \r invasive species, compromising the survival of native biodiversity \r (medium confidence) (Moss et al., 2009). The longer growth season \r in the boreal and Arctic latitudes is projected to aid the invasion of \r exotic species, and increase lake stratification resulting in lower \r oxygen below the hypolimnion (medium confidence). In addition, strict \r cold-water species are projected to lose suitable habitat (Moss et al., \r 2009). An analysis of 1648 species of freshwater fish, amphibians, \r turtles, plants, molluscs, crayfish and dragonflies, projected ~6% of \r common and ~77% of rare species to lose 90% of their geographic \r range (low confidence) (Markovic et al., 2014). Even if some species \r can spread to other areas and follow the climate, Markovic et  al. \r [...]"


id: e7e35af964d060bd83124578f689b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] (2014) projected a loss of species, especially molluscs, from the \r southeastern Mediterranean, including the Balkan biodiversity hotspot \r (H162) (medium confidence). Similarly, within Europe, Mediterranean \r fish (Jaric et al., 2019) and insects (Conti et al., 2014) are the most \r threatened by climate warming, droughts and floods. The fish species \r of the Danube river delta hotspot (H161) are less susceptible to climate \r change than in the Balkans (H162) and Anatolian (H163) hotspots. \r The rest of Europe, from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia is not \r classified as a biodiversity hotspot. Thus, the areas where freshwater \r biodiversity is most threatened by climate change in Europe are in two \r of the three hotspots (high confidence)."


id: d9afc8629388cf84e94fdbf2abf41275
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35594
content:
"Kelp forests are in decline in mid-latitudes due to warming and \r associated increased herbivory (medium confidence) (Section 3.4.2.3, \r Chapter 11). South and southeastern (H228), and southwestern (H227) \r Australia have experienced a climate-related decline of kelp forests \r (Wernberg et  al., 2011; Verges et  al., 2016; Wernberg et  al., 2016). \r West Australia (H227) has been affected by extreme climate events \r characterised by the replacement of kelp and sessile invertebrates \r by algal turfs and warm-water fish species (Wernberg et  al., 2013; \r Wernberg et  al., 2016). Australia's Great Barrier Reef (H236), kelp \r forests, seagrass meadows and mangroves (due to drought), have \r suffered mortalities due to climate change (medium confidence) \r (Babcock et al., 2019). Climate warming driven changes in seaweed \r assemblages have been reported not only in Australia, but in the marine \r biodiversity hotspots of Atlantic Canada, Japan, Mediterranean, New \r [...]"


id: 16b2fc9e515b311c0059f412e38534c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1204
content:
"[...] Zealand (Laffoley and Baxter, 2016; Thomsen et  al., 2019; Thomsen \r and South, 2019) and California (H207, 231, 216, 238, 199) (Arafeh\u0002Dalmau et al., 2019; McPherson et al., 2021). However, while climate \r change is having measurable effects on kelp, the dominant effects on \r kelp projected to 2025 are fishing, through its effects on herbivores \r and predators (medium confidence) (Steneck et al., 2002). Although \r fishing affected Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea (H214) and Gulf of \r Maine (H207) biodiversity hotspots, it was also affected by climate \r change, but negatively and positively, respectively (Kjesbu et al., 2014; \r Pershing et al., 2015)."


id: 89204c6f9d9e2d5c454f2265a41f00da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21292
content:
"Mangroves occupy the interface of terrestrial, freshwater and marine \r environments, dominate in eight hotspots (Table  CCP1.1) and are \r connected to or integral habitats within one-third of all terrestrial \r and freshwater, and two-thirds of marine, hotspots (Figures CCP1.1; \r CCP1.2). A global analysis of sediment cores from mangroves indicated \r that mangroves can accrete sediment at levels of sea level rise projected \r under low emission scenarios, but may decline at their seaward edge \r under high emission scenarios (Saintilan et al., 2020, Chapter 3.4.2, \r Cross-Chapter Box Sea-level rise). However, even if this seaward \r erosion occurs, the expansion of mangroves inland due to sea level \r rise will increase carbon sequestration, because they capture carbon \r from seawater and freshwater runoff, in addition to photosynthesis, \r into their underlying sediments. If coastal management permits the \r expansion of mangroves inland with rising sea level, this will increase \r [...]"


id: 1bfcc08c9c480d9ca431898a729f1899
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 2109
content:
"[...] carbon sequestration because mangroves capture and preserve more \r carbon in their sediments than other terrestrial and marine forests and \r biomes (high confidence) (Table CCP1.2; Alongi, 2020; Goldstein et al., \r 2020; Lovelock and Reef, 2020; Saintilan et al., 2020)."


id: d1e9514e7453dcb26011ce4f639964b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34278
content:
"Although mitigation can sharply reduce extinction risk associated with \r climate change (high confidence), it cannot reduce all of the risk, nor \r the risk associated with other drivers that can have a compound effect \r with climate change. Thus, in addition to mitigation, the literature \r consistently calls for reducing current non-climate impacts (e.g., habitat \r conversion, over-exploitation, hunting, fishing, wildfire, pollution, \r human-introduced invasive species) in order to increase biodiversity \r resilience to climate change (very high confidence) (Table CCP1.2; e.g., \r Mantyka-Pringle et  al., 2015; Warren et  al., 2018a; Costello, 2021). \r The main strategies to increase resilience rely on the combination of \r well-planned protected areas, restoration of degraded areas and the \r sustainable use of biodiversity (high confidence) (IPCC, 2019a; Portner \r et al., 2021) . On land, creating corridors for species is key for facilitating \r [...]"


id: d2cfa9c139f2b187ab40b7afaf730760
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] species movements (high confidence) (McGuire et al., 2016; Heikkinen \r et  al., 2020; Portner et  al., 2021). Habitat protection has numerous \r co-benefits, including potential climate mitigation through carbon \r storage and sequestration, in addition to climatic regulation (Alkama \r and Cescatti, 2016; Mackey et  al., 2020) and pandemic prevention \r (Allen et al., 2017; Dobson et al., 2020, Cross-Chapter Box COVID-19 \r in Chapter 7)."


id: ba08aca6c3fdb65884ac3ebb49ff9e2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29952
content:
"On land, fragmentation and habitat degradation are particularly \r pervasive, imposing hard limits to adaptation of terrestrial and \r freshwater ecosystems (Ibisch et al., 2016; Lenoir et al., 2020; Mechler \r et al., 2020). Thus, the protection of existing natural habitats coupled \r with the restoration of the surrounding non-protected habitat can \r increase the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in terrestrial and \r freshwater hotspots (very high confidence) (Table CCP1.2; IPCC, \r 2019a; Jung et  al., 2021). Additionally, strategic allocation of new \r protected areas within gaps across elevational and climatic gradients \r could enhance biodiversity conservation across hotspots. This would \r align with Target 3 of the Convention on Biological Diversity's \r post-2020 draft Global Biodiversity Framework, and could include \r underrepresented climate and elevation spaces as well as potential \r climate refugia currently not under protection (Portner et al., 2021). \r [...]"


id: 1caa151588d28f8b2df0094c180e39dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2216
content:
"[...] In terrestrial ecosystems, restoration initiatives can help sustain \r biodiversity, improve resilience in a changing climate, and avoid \r maladaptation by selecting appropriate native species to be planted \r (Cross-Chapter Box  Bioeconomy in Chapter 5; (Gann et  al., 2019). \r In freshwater ecosystems, conservation needs catchment level \r management of human activities (Saunders et  al., 2002; Dudgeon \r et al., 2006), especially as 37% of the terrestrial biodiversity hotspots \r overlap with freshwater (Figure  CCP1.2) and 23% border marine \r hotspots (Olson and Dinerstein, 2002)."


id: b51205b9e76346c88fb83d37130bde3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 29091
content:
"Despite covering approximately 2% of the Earth's land area, islands harbour more than 20% of extant terrestrial species (Wetzel et al., \r 2013). Islands have disproportionately higher rates of endemism and threat when compared to continents, with 80% of historical \r extinctions (since 1500 CE) having occurred on islands (high confidence) (Taylor and Kumar, 2016; Spatz et al., 2017; Duenas et al., 2021). \r Current climate change projections suggest that insular species are particularly sensitive and, even at mild warming levels, substantial \r losses are expected (high confidence) (Pouteau and Birnbaum, 2016; Taylor and Kumar, 2016; Dawson et al., 2017; Manes et al., 2021). \r Given islands' characteristic high endemicity, current high threat levels and the fact that islands host almost half of all species currently \r considered to be at risk of extinction, especially at higher warming levels (high confidence) (Taylor and Kumar, 2016; Spatz et al., 2017), \r [...]"


id: b6e7cc904b7ef1f1ac95c584736cead
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29384
content:
"[...] further losses could contribute disproportionately to global biodiversity decline (medium evidence, high agreement) (Harter et al., 2015; \r Pouteau and Birnbaum, 2016; Manes et al., 2021)."


id: 7be730dc29b9210928e1556f43e35fa7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19009
content:
"The high vulnerability of terrestrial biodiversity on islands to global change can be explained by a number of limitations, characteristic of \r both islands and insular species. Older, isolated islands tend to have fewer species and lower functional redundancy but a higher proportion \r of endemism (Pouteau and Birnbaum, 2016; Medail, 2017). Many of these islands contain species with inherently high sensitivity to \r environmental change (narrow habitat ranges, small population sizes, low genetic diversity and poor adaptive, dispersal and defensive \r capabilities) (Harter et  al., 2015). Unlike continental environments, insular species often have limited opportunities for autonomous \r adaptation from not having enough geographic space to shift their ranges to track suitable climatic conditions (high confidence) (Fortini \r [...]"


id: bd3e37d36f123a0689e96c2e8d562903
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30545
content:
"[...] et al., 2015; Manes et al., 2021). Local extinction risks are amplified by even small losses of habitat due to global change including human\u0002induced disturbances, extreme events, sea level rise (Chapter 15; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3) and invasive species."


id: 1d58cab5ccf8e25ccd6a429c5fd1d84e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2344
content:
"Adaptation strategies depend on the ability to project future impacts from climate change, but this is hampered by lack of fine-scale \r climate data, especially for developing small island nations. There is a paucity of robust impacts-based modelling output for terrestrial \r biodiversity from these islands due to the wide, chronic unavailability of Regional Climate Model (RCM) data premised on the most \r recent suite of scenarios (RCPs and especially SSPs) (medium evidence, high agreement) (Gutierrez et al., 2021, Ch.15.8; Portner et al., \r 2021; WMO, 2021). Additionally, realistic assessments of changing climate on such small ecosystems require further RCM downscaling \r and verification to sub-island resolutions of <5 km. Furthermore, widely used statistically (bias-corrected) downscaled data at sub-5 km \r resolutions, such as WorldClim are often unsuitable due to limited spatial and temporal resolutions of observation station data from small \r [...]"


id: 1cfc312ae8aa3a3df686f47b4450ebed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2281
content:
"[...] islands (Maharaj and New, 2013; Gutierrez et al., 2021) and higher errors associated with statistical downscaling and locations with \r complex topography and coastlines (Fick and Hijmans, 2017; Lanzante et al., 2018). Widespread unavailability of such data constrains \r accurate simulations of climatic variation within the small-scale mountainous and coastal regions of islands, associated with climate \r refugia and high habitat heterogeneity (high confidence) (Balzan et al., 2018). This is a key element contributing to the continued delay \r in development of robust adaptation strategies towards not only biodiversity conservation but other important cross-sectoral issues \r (medium confidence) (Robinson, 2020b)."


id: 59d6ef4f322bf808ade2dea30960ff9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 13049
content:
"Due to islands' limited size and isolation, conventional conservation measures focused on expanding protected areas, dispersal corridors \r and buffer zones are of limited effectiveness on islands (high confidence) (Vogiatzakis et al., 2016). Instead, multifaceted, locally driven \r holistic climate-smart strategies across mosaics of human-impacted, often heavily degraded and fragmented, landscapes are required. \r These should ideally be long-term, flexible and sustainable solutions that incorporate social and biocultural knowledge as well as \r economic co-benefits to island communities in order to 'buy time' (Betzold, 2015; Robinson, 2020a). Examples include ecosystem-based \r approaches such as ridge-to-reef management (Struebig et  al., 2015; Ferreira et  al., 2019, Figure  CCP1.15.4), which incorporates \r conservation partnerships among lands inside and outside protected areas to increase connectivity and reduce land use impacts, while \r [...]"


id: f09327becd4197efbe287aabb14d7c23
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39701
content:
"[...] building on the interconnections among terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems. Such strategies require raising awareness \r of biodiversity values among local communities, and cross-sectoral planning and policy at both island, regional and trans-boundary \r scales. These lend to private-public partnerships, increasing the potential of solutions reaching beyond protected areas boundaries and \r affecting socio-political change (high confidence) (Scobie, 2016)."


id: 63a01131caf722844e2dde6f016d40e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Five of the SDGs are life on land, life below water, good health and well-being, food security and climate action. They \r underpin and interact with many other SDGs. Healthy ecosystems play a role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, \r not only protecting areas to prevent the release of carbon through land conversion activities but also restoring \r otherwise degraded land. The United Nations has declared 2021-2030 as the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and \r the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. Restoration means actively or passively allowing habitat \r to return to its natural state (e.g., grassland, forest, peatland, oyster beds), including replanting native vegetation. \r This can benefit the recovery of biodiversity, help remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and improve the \r delivery of nature's contributions to people, such as climate regulation, water purification, pollination, and pest \r [...]"


id: a820e093d4e705c79bf5964bf5f86508
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] and disease control. Thus, protecting biodiversity helps to meet two SDGs directly, and three indirectly."


id: b9ee1ce493f091d85532f588b7c909cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29932
content:
"On land, the loss of natural forests and grasslands not only means a loss of carbon and many of their associated \r species, but exposes soils to erosion, affecting food production, and can affect the climate by altering the water \r cycle. Sustainable development, even within hotspots, involves active restoration of natural biodiversity, reducing \r poaching and trafficking of wildlife (UN SDG 15), and needs to include agriculture. This includes working to ensure \r biodiverse soils and supporting healthy pollinator populations. Biodiversity includes not only wild species but also \r genetic diversity, including crops and wild crop relatives. These wild relatives may contain important genes that \r could help farmed crops survive better in a changed climate. At least some of these wild relatives come from \r areas designated as hotspots. In the ocean, sustainable development means reducing pollution, carefully managed \r [...]"


id: 7136720452000789ec542b9e2c48bf5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17175
content:
"[...] aquaculture development, increased protected areas (from the present 2.5% of the ocean area), enforcement of \r fisheries regulations, and removal of fishery subsidies that perpetuate overfishing within Exclusive Economic Zones \r and on the High Seas (UN SDG 14). Generally, the use of freshwaters, rivers, lakes and groundwaters, has not been \r sustainable and there is a need to restore biodiversity and water quality by eliminating pollution and to better \r manage abstraction, river flows, fishing and invasive species. Thus, as is the case with land and oceans, climate \r policies must prioritise the restoration of freshwater biodiversity, and reduction of the current negative impacts of \r human activities."


id: 4616c62221d9fe98be5790fa85b87768
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9545
content:
"with some atolls being uninhabitable by 2050. The coastal flood risk \r will rapidly increase during coming decades, possibly by 2-3 orders \r of magnitude by 2100 in the absence of effective adaptation and \r mitigation, with severe impacts on coast-dependent livelihoods and \r socioecological systems (high confidence). Impacts reach far beyond \r C&S; for example damage to ports severely compromising global \r supply chains and maritime trade, with local-global geopolitical and \r economic ramifications. Global investment costs to accommodate port \r growth and adapt to SLR will amount to USD 223-768 billion before \r 2050, presenting opportunities for C&S by the sea to build climate \r resilience (medium evidence, high agreement). Severely accelerated \r SLR resulting from rapid continental ice mass loss would bring impacts \r forward by decades, and adaptation would need to occur much faster \r and on a much greater scale than ever performed in the past (medium \r [...]"


id: 4c90956cd19e876bc92cde3975e87ddf
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 10731
content:
"[...] confidence) {Table SMCCP2.1; CCP2.1; CCP2.2; Cross-Chapter Box SLR \r in Chapter 3; Chapter 4; Sections 6.2.7}."


id: 2c70b4aa9634ae84b969765f2ca9c63e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5082
content:
"Much of the world's population, economic activities and critical \r infrastructure are concentrated near the sea (high confidence), with \r nearly 11% of the global population, or 896 million people, already \r living on low-lying coasts directly exposed to interacting climatic \r and non-climatic coastal hazards (very high confidence). Low-lying \r cities and settlements (C&S) by the sea are experiencing adverse \r climate impacts that are superimposed on extensive and accelerating \r anthropogenic coastal change (very high confidence). Depending on \r coastal C&S characteristics, continuing existing patterns of coastal \r development will worsen exposure and vulnerability (high confidence). \r With accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and worsening climate-driven \r risks in a warming world, prospects for achieving the Sustainable \r Development Goals (SDGs) and charting climate resilient development \r (CRD) pathways are dismal (high confidence). However, coastal C&S \r [...]"


id: e3fdc6ccdbaab5eecaaa2cf87b76108a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37404
content:
"[...] are also the source of SDG and CRD solutions, because they are centres \r of innovation with long histories of place-based livelihoods, many of \r which are globally connected through maritime trade and exchange \r (medium confidence) {CCP2.1, CCP2.2 CCP2.3, CCP2.4; SMCCP2.1; \r Chapters 16, 18}."


id: 66313204ba28e8999b4fdb95c4b3f086
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15244
content:
"A mix of infrastructural, nature-based, institutional and sociocultural \r interventions are needed to reduce the multifaceted risk facing \r C&S, including vulnerability-reducing measures, avoidance (i.e., \r disincentivising developments in high-risk areas), hard and soft \r protection, accommodation, advance (i.e., building up and out to sea) \r and retreat (i.e., landward movement of people and development) (very \r high confidence). Depending on the C&S archetype, technical limits \r for hard protection may be reached beyond 2100 under high-emission \r scenarios, with socioeconomic and governance barriers reached before \r then (medium confidence). However, hard protection can set up lock-in \r of assets and people to risks and, in some cases, may reach limits--due \r to technical and financial constraints--by 2100 or sooner depending \r on the scenario, local SLR effects and community tolerance thresholds \r (medium confidence). Where sufficient space and adequate habitats \r [...]"


id: de84f67189e9e551e92f22c00b6bd6e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36417
content:
"[...] are available, nature-based solutions can help to reduce coastal hazard \r risks and provide other benefits, but biophysical limits may be reached \r before end-century (medium confidence). Accommodation is easier, \r faster and cheaper to implement than hard protection, but limits may be \r reached by 2100, or sooner in some settings. An adaptation-pathways \r planning approach demonstrates how the solution space can expand \r or shrink depending on the type and timing of adaptation interventions. \r As SLR is relentless on human timescales, the solution space will shrink \r without adoption of an adaptation-pathways planning approach (high \r confidence). Due to long implementation lead times and the need to \r avoid maladaptive lock-in, particularly in localities facing rapid SLR \r and climate-compounded risk, adaptation will be more successful if \r timely action is taken accounting for long-term (committed) SLR, and "


id: cf0bc88b97dac5b9655676121b03262a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33772
content:
"There is high confidence that projected climate risks will increase with \r (i) exposure to climate- and ocean-driven hazards manifest at the coast, \r such as heat waves, droughts, pluvial floods and impacts due to SLR, \r tropical cyclones, marine and land heatwaves, and ocean acidification; \r (ii) with increasing vulnerability driven by inequity and (iii) increasing \r exposure driven by urban growth in at-risk locations. Compounded \r and cascading climate risks, such as to coastal C&S infrastructure \r and supply chain networks, are also expected to increase. These \r risks are acute for C&S on subsiding and/or low-lying small islands, \r the Arctic, and open, estuarine and deltaic coasts (high confidence). \r By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying C&S will \r be at risk from coast-specific climate hazards, influenced by coastal \r geomorphology, geographical location and adaptation action (high \r confidence). Between USD 7 and 14 trillion of coastal infrastructure \r [...]"


id: 5117bf654fc69706b856d4727248ba69
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11547
content:
"[...] assets will be exposed by 2100, depending on warming levels and \r socioeconomic development trajectories (medium confidence). \r Historically rare extreme sea level events will occur annually by 2100, "


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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Implementing integrated multi-level coastal zone governance, pre\u0002emptive planning, enabling behavioural change and alignment of \r financial resources with a wide set of values will provide C&S with \r greater flexibility to open up the solution space to adapt to climate \r change (high confidence). Insufficient financial resources are a key \r constraint for coastal adaptation, particularly in the Global South \r (high confidence). Engaging the private sector in coastal adaptation \r action with a range of financial tools is crucial to address the coastal \r adaptation funding gap (high confidence). Considering the full range \r of economic and non-economic values will improve adaptation \r effectiveness and equity across C&S archetypes (high confidence). \r Aligning adaptation in C&S with socioeconomic development, \r infrastructure maintenance and COVID-19 recovery investments will \r provide additional co-benefits. Urgency is also driven by the need to \r [...]"


id: f3361729f04eaa182e7c2b142b5af0a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] avoid lock-in to new and additional risks, for example to avoid C&S \r sprawl into fragile ecosystems and the most exposed coastal localities \r {CCP2.3; CCP2.4.2; CCP2.4.4}."


id: 6e29672884050771bfed95fd774ecd60
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16645
content:
"C&S by the sea are thus on the frontline of action to adapt to \r climate change, mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and chart CRD \r pathways for several distinct reasons. First, home to a concentrated \r (and growing) portion of the world's population, many coastal C&S \r are simultaneously exposed and vulnerable to climate-compounded \r hazards as well as being centres of creativity and innovation (Glavovic, \r 2013; Crescenzi and Rodriguez-Pose, 2017; Druzhinin et  al., 2021; \r Mariano et al., 2021; Storbjork and Hjerpe, 2021). Second, people in \r C&S by the sea rely on coastal ecosystems, many of which are highly \r sensitive to climate change impacts that compound non-climatic risks \r and increase the precarity of coastal livelihoods (Lu et al., 2018; He \r and Silliman, 2019; Thrush et al., 2021). Third, coastal C&S are linked \r together through a network of ports and harbours that underpin global \r trade and exchange, but which are prone to climate change impacts, \r [...]"


id: cb4fc07e58ba1a7e3276af2343dc7da5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] especially SLR, with significant implications for global CRD prospects \r (Becker et  al., 2018; Christodoulou et  al., 2019; Walsh et  al., 2019; \r Hanson and Nicholls, 2020). For these reasons, this paper assesses \r responses, enabling conditions and lessons learned for addressing \r climate change in C&S by the sea."


id: a9c0b0f0cb93acccaa07d343d9234194
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Presently, the coastal C&S population exposure to ocean-driven \r impacts from SLR and other climate-driven impacts is considerable \r by any measure (Buddemeier et  al., 2008; Barragan and de Andres, \r 2015; Kay and Alder, 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2019; McMichael et al., \r 2020; Sterzel et  al., 2020). In 2020, almost 11% of the global \r population--896  million people--resided in C&S within the low\u0002elevation coastal zone (LECZ; coastal areas below 10 m of elevation \r above sea level that are hydrologically connected to the sea; Haasnoot \r et al., 2021b), a figure which will potentially increase beyond 1 billion \r by 2050 (Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). Infrastructural and economic \r assets worth USD 6,500-11,000 billion are also exposed in the 1-in\u0002100-year floodplain for C&S of all sizes (Neumann et al., 2015; Muis \r et al., 2016; Brown et al., 2018; Andrew et al., 2019; Kulp and Strauss, \r 2019; Kirezci et al., 2020; Thomas et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., 2021b; \r [...]"


id: f644e40272f2146cc71c4c05cfe958f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40689
content:
"This assessment uses an archetype framework categorizing coastal \r C&S according to geomorphological characteristics, urban growth, \r economic resources and inequalities (Figure  CCP2.1). Three broadly \r defined coastal settlement geomorphologies are used in each row: \r open coasts (a coast with sediment without river mouths) and two \r transitional coastal zones with river mouths, distinguishing between \r estuaries (a wetland receiving sediment from both fluvial and marine \r sources, which is affected by tide, wave and river processes) and deltas \r (a wetland where fluvial sediment is supplied and deposited more \r rapidly than it can be redistributed by basin processes such as waves \r and tides; Bhattacharya, 1978; Barragan and de Andres, 2015; Kay and \r Alder, 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2019; Sterzel et al., 2020). Small island \r C&S are not singled out in this typology, because their coastlines often \r include the geomorphic features listed above, or require a different \r [...]"


id: 4fa56527fab7e38ef12d0715eca8f452
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11300
content:
"[...] adaptation approach at larger spatial scales (Haasnoot et al., 2019). \r Several coastal C&S have a combination of two typologies, for example, \r Maputo-Matola, Mozambique and Mumbai, India, having both open \r and transitional riverine coasts, and can be classed as mixed. We \r also acknowledge that several coastal C&S may have areas sited in \r mountainous topography that abruptly rises from the coast (e.g., along \r the Mediterranean), but generally these cities have narrow, densely \r populated coastlines exhibiting these three archetypal categories \r (Blackburn et al., 2019). Arctic settlements are addressed separately in \r this cross-chapter paper."


id: d97ecd69a6eea17122191a69be9b2f3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35560
content:
"Some caveats are warranted. First, locating a specific city or settlement \r in a particular archetype does not account for future reclassification \r due to growth or shifts in development trajectories. Second, significant \r socioeconomic, political and governance variations exist within many \r C&S, such as impoverished informal settlements alongside wealthy \r neighbourhoods in cities like Cape Town and Sao Paulo (also see \r Table SMCCP2.1). Third, this archetype framework does not explicitly \r reveal important interconnections between coastal C&S and their \r hinterlands, or between particular C&S through maritime trade or \r other economic, sociocultural and geopolitical interdependencies. \r Notwithstanding these caveats, these archetypes reveal differentiated \r physical impacts and socioeconomic conditions, as well as the variable \r challenges and opportunities arising when addressing climate change \r impacts and projected risk, which, depending on coastal type, C&S \r [...]"


id: fd71b461eb2c1e7294ee9d14ea536297
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41944
content:
"[...] size and resource availability, help to inform efforts to adapt and chart \r CRD for each archetype (Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 2016; Rocle et al., 2020; \r Sterzel et al., 2020)."


id: b18020aca7799c7b5dd943340ac4349c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28451
content:
"Without adaptation, risks to land and people in coastal C&S from \r pluvial and coastal flooding will very likely2\r  increase substantially by \r 2100 and likely beyond as a result of SLR, with significant impacts even \r under RCP2.6 (Neumann et al., 2015; Muis et al., 2016; Brown et al., \r 2018; Nicholls et al., 2018; Kulp and Strauss, 2019; Oppenheimer et al., \r 2019; Kirezci et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., 2021b). Across these studies, \r by 2100, 158-510  million people and USD  7,919-12,739  billion \r assets under RCP4.5, and 176-880  million people and USD  8,813-\r 14,178  billion assets under RCP8.5 will be within the 1-in-100-year \r floodplain (very high confidence). There is medium confidence that \r accelerated SLR will increase shoreline erosion globally, although \r biophysical feedbacks will allow many coastlines to maintain relatively \r stable morphology if room exists to accommodate mangroves in \r estuarine and deltaic coasts and beach movement along open coasts \r [...]"


id: b37357ccfbd4b6271dab770bbd99be53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28812
content:
"[...] (Kench et  al., 2015; McLean and Kench, 2015; Perkins et  al., 2015; \r Richards and Friess, 2016; CCC, 2017; Duncan et al., 2018; Luijendijk \r et al., 2018; Mentaschi et al., 2018; Schuerch et al., 2018; Ghosh et al., \r 2019; Masselink et  al., 2020; Toimil et  al., 2020; Vousdoukas et  al., \r 2020b). Limiting emissions to RCP2.6 (corresponding to a mean post\u0002industrial global temperature increase of 1.5-2degC) significantly reduces \r future SLR risks (Hinkel et al., 2014; Brown et al., 2018; Nicholls et al., \r 2018; Schinko et al., 2020). For example, by 2100, the population at risk \r of permanent submergence increases by 26% under RCP2.6 compared \r with 53% under RCP8.5 (median values from Kulp and Strauss, 2019)."


id: b0c2d162d248afe00277747354fd71de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28328
content:
"Figure CCP2.2 |  Schematic of how climate and ocean drivers (from WGI Chapter 12.4.10.2 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)) and consequential physical impacts \r on coastal cities and settlements (C&S) influence risks assessed in (Section CCP2.2; figure based on Simpson et al., 2021, and Section 1.3.1.2). These risks to \r C&S by the sea are shaped and mediated by adaptation interventions aimed at reducing vulnerability and exposure to coastal hazards given settlement archetypes, as well as by \r expanding the space for responses to risk via the enabling conditions assessed in Section CCP2.4. Note that exposure to coastal hazards is controlled chiefly by underlying coastal \r C&S geomorphology and changes in coastal hazards and urban growth, including population and infrastructure growth. Vulnerability is controlled, for example, by socioeconomic \r [...]"


id: 8f49f503a20839ad0d8af5a6bdc42765
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22418
content:
"[...] development and inequality, and responses that shape the risks assessed in Section CCP2.3 can be enhanced by enabling conditions, including behavioural change, conducive \r finance and prudent governance."


id: c1270ee2960d249dcc760922dd826f21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31283
content:
"exposure to hazards. Tangible impacts include damage, loss of life \r and loss of livelihoods, especially fisheries and tourism (Tessler et al., \r 2015; Avelino et  al., 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018; Seekamp \r et  al., 2019; Arabadzhyan et  al., 2020); negative impacts on health \r and wellbeing, especially under extreme events (McIver et al., 2016; \r Bakkensen and Mendelsohn, 2019; Bindoff et al., 2019; Pugatch, 2019); \r and involuntary displacement and migration (Hauer, 2017; Davis et al., \r 2018; Neef et  al., 2018; Boas et  al., 2019; McLeman et  al., 2021). \r Intangible impacts include psychological impacts due to extreme \r events such as heatwaves, flooding, droughts and tropical cyclones; \r heightened inequality in coastal archetypes with systematic gender/\r ethnicity/structural vulnerabilities; and loss of things of personal or \r cultural value and sense of place or connection, including an existential \r [...]"


id: 464b5b0f361297fadc53b95011da26da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9589
content:
"[...] risk of the demise of nations due to submergence (Allison and Bassett, \r 2015; Barnett, 2017; Schmutter et al., 2017; Weir et al., 2017; Farbotko \r et al., 2020; Hauer et al., 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2020; Bell et al., 2021). \r Impacts extend beyond the coastal zone, for example disruption to ports \r and supply chains, with major geopolitical and economic ramifications \r from the C&S to the global scale (very high confidence; Becker et al., "


id: ccc3d5d1370acf98dd5ff47a97f4e0fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33357
content:
"Figure CCP2.3 shows that ocean-driven coastal risks to people, land \r and infrastructure in East and Southeast Asia are highest compared \r to other regions, even for low levels of projected SLR. However, risks \r facing coastal C&S are high across the globe, especially under higher \r SLR projections (high confidence). Without adaptation, the population \r at risk of a 100-year coastal flood increases by ~20% if the global \r mean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative to current levels; this at-risk \r population doubles at a rise of 0.75 m in mean sea level and triples \r at 1.4 m. Simultaneously, coastal C&S are projected to experience \r shoreline retreat, with coastlines having more than 100 m of retreat \r increasing by ~165% if current mean sea levels rise between 0.23 \r and 0.53 m. Ocean-driven flooding in coastal C&S is also projected \r to disrupt flights by up to three orders of magnitude per year in \r selected coastal C&S as mean sea level increases. Typically, larger \r [...]"


id: d1f5f7e6985e5c2ab7a74f202165db12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34287
content:
"[...] risks correspond to archetypes associated with higher inequality and \r high growth rates, especially in deltas, leading to larger vulnerability \r and exposure, respectively, under higher warming levels."


id: 8b87c3b41e310c591c366e8d27f4b09e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21714
content:
"Most studies of coastal C&S focus on adaptation to a single or limited \r set of risks, but there is high confidence that compound and cascading \r risks significantly alter C&S risk profiles (Nicholls et al., 2015; Estrada \r et  al., 2017; Edmonds et  al., 2020; Eilander et  al., 2020; Yin et  al., \r 2020; Ghanbari et  al., 2021). Extreme events can lead to cascading \r infrastructure failures that cause damage and economic losses well \r beyond the coastal zone (Haraguchi and Kim, 2016; Kishore et  al., \r 2018; Rey et al., 2019; So et al., 2019), and have forced evacuation \r of C&S and small islands (Look et  al., 2019; Thomas and Benjamin, \r 2020). These risks are exacerbated by non-climatic drivers, for example \r compound and cascading impacts arising from exposure to tropical \r cyclones and COVID-19 that threaten population health and hamper \r pandemic responses (Salas et al., 2020; Shultz et al., 2020a; Shultz et al., \r [...]"


id: d4f225239ab0d7bcdaf83c3984f0d1af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34785
content:
"[...] 2020b). There is emerging evidence (low confidence) from individual \r coastal C&S and regional case studies (e.g., in Europe, Australia and \r the US) to illustrate the increasing influence of compound risks on "


id: 9adb9a91ca2695bb19a2f5a395e3d512
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24490
content:
"Protection is effective in the short- to medium-term for many coastal \r cities, and can be cost effective in the 21st century (Section CCP2.4.2), \r but residual risk remains because protection can fail. Even under \r RCP8.5, technical limits to hard protection may only be reached after \r 2100 in many regions, but socioeconomic and institutional barriers \r may be reached before then (Hinkel et al., 2018). With progressive SLR, \r protection eventually becomes unaffordable and impractical (Strauss \r et al., 2021). Combining hard engineering measures with nature-based \r solutions, spatial planning and early warning systems can help to \r contain residual risk (Du et al., 2020). Protective works do not prevent \r salinisation and higher groundwater levels (Alves et al., 2020), and can \r lead to loss of coastal habitat (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; \r Achete et al., 2017; Cooper et al., 2020). Hard protective measures also \r [...]"


id: 6694109a1d949e630d3590e0cfe82130
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15300
content:
"[...] create long-term path dependency as they last for decades and attract \r new development, locking in impact and exposure as C&S grow, with \r the expectation of ongoing protection (Chapter 3; Di Baldassarre et al., \r 2015; Gibbs, 2016; Griggs and Patsch, 2019; Siders, 2019a)."


id: d4ebde17232f05626aa0661ec5d19db3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34778
content:
"Sediment-based interventions, for example beach nourishment, aim \r to limit coastal erosion and flood risk and have become a widely \r applied strategy, especially in open-coast archetypal C&S. This is in \r part because there is less impact on adjacent beaches and coastal \r ecology and also lower construction and maintenance costs compared \r to hard protection (high confidence; Parkinson and Ogurcak, 2018). \r In addition, it is considered a flexible strategy under more rapid SLR \r conditions (Kabat et al., 2009; Stive et al., 2013) and can be applied \r in the form of a mega-nourishment strategy, wherein natural currents \r distribute sand along the coast (Stive et al., 2013; de Schipper et al., \r 2021). However, there are limits to this strategy due to environmental \r impacts, costs and the availability of potential and permitted sand \r reserves, which may be unable to keep up with higher rates of SLR \r (Parkinson and Ogurcak, 2018; Haasnoot et  al., 2019; Harris et  al., \r [...]"


id: a41a2c680dbbc863464ce32548ebbd43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26066
content:
"[...] 2021; Staudt et al., 2021). Simultaneously, other socioeconomic needs \r (e.g., damming rivers or for building and transport infrastructure) may \r compete for sand as a limited resource (Torres et al., 2017; Bendixen \r et al., 2019). Regional and global governance provisions (e.g., spatial \r reservations for sand mining, international frameworks for distribution) \r could improve long-term feasibility (Torres et al., 2017; Parkinson and \r Ogurcak, 2018; Bendixen et al., 2019; Haasnoot et al., 2019)."


id: b0b0bd96a1fff2c90f5cb70c93984c89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28312
content:
"The effectiveness of different strategies and interventions is mediated \r by physical coastal features for hard adaptation measures and by \r the scope and depth of soft adaptation measures, for example by \r the coverage and extent of social safety nets for the urban poor \r (Section 6.3). Their feasibility is also shaped by socioeconomic, cultural, \r political and institutional factors, for example social acceptance \r of measures (Section CCP2.2, SMCCP2.2.4). Together, response \r effectiveness and feasibility shape the solution space for mediating \r risks (Section 1.3.1.2; Figure CCP2.3; Simpson et al., 2021), which is \r achieved chiefly through governance interventions, for example laws \r and regulations (Haasnoot et al., 2020). Access to financial resources \r expands the solution space, most notably for some resource-rich \r coastal archetypes (Section CCP2.4.2; Table SMCCP2.1; Sections 3.6; \r 14.7), but rapid population growth and unfolding climate-driven \r [...]"


id: c2a2f4183f81a30b6c98e11fc56f8b1a
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content:
"[...] impacts can increase risks (Haasnoot et al., 2021a), especially for small \r island and poorer C&S (high confidence; Section  15.3; Magnan and \r Duvat, 2020)."


id: 89e19a815e2e737ad4ca75f7149d226d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21426
content:
"Cross-Chapter Box  SLR in Chapter 3; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019; \r Doberstein et  al., 2019). For existing C&S, accommodation includes \r biophysical and institutional responses to reduce exposure and/or \r vulnerability of coastal residents, human activities, ecosystems and \r the built environment, enabling continued habitation of coastal C&S \r (Oppenheimer et al., 2019). Next to hard protection, accommodation is \r the most widely used adaptation strategy across all archetypes to date \r (high confidence; Sayers et al., 2015; Olazabal et al., 2019; Le, 2020). \r Measures include elevation or flood proofing of houses and other \r infrastructure (Garschagen, 2015; Aerts et  al., 2018; Buchori et  al., \r 2018; Jamero et al., 2018; Tamura et al., 2019), spatial planning (e.g., \r Duy et al., 2018), amphibious building designs (Nilubon et al., 2016), \r increasing water storage and/or drainage capacity within C&S (Chan \r et  al., 2018), early warning systems and disaster responses (Hissel \r [...]"


id: d8c7a7ade5ebabe1e10258b061cf7454
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35434
content:
"Raising land, or individual buildings, can avert flooding and be \r accomplished artificially or by nature-based interventions through river \r diversion and control in estuarine and deltaic archetypes (Nittrouer et al., \r 2012; Auerbach et al., 2015; Day et al., 2016; Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 2016; \r Hiatt et al., 2019; Cornwall, 2021). Nature-based land elevation is limited \r by sediment supply and can address SLR rates of up to 10 mm  yr-1 \r (Kleinhans et al., 2010; Kirwan et al., 2016; IPCC, 2019). It also assumes \r that existing land-use patterns permit land raising (e.g., in rural or \r newly developed areas; Scussolini et al., 2017). Artificial land raising can \r achieve significant elevations and be implemented over a large spatial \r scale (Esteban et al., 2015; Esteban et al., 2019). Raising land can be cost \r beneficial for small areas or where lower safety levels are satisfactory, \r but protection is usually more economical for larger areas, although both \r [...]"


id: 1d887a0d00f820fcc3f19f952df3633c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2377
content:
"Within limits, coastal ecosystems can respond to RSL through sediment \r accretion and lateral inland movement (Kirwan et al., 2016; Schuerch \r et  al., 2018). Nature-based measures have the greatest potential in \r coastal deltas and estuaries, where human populations are exposed, \r but large ecosystems, like mangroves and marshes, can be conserved \r and restored (Menendez et al., 2020; Van Coppenolle and Temmerman, \r 2020). Their feasibility depends on physical, ecological, institutional \r and socioeconomic conditions that are typically locality dependent \r (Temmerman and Kirwan, 2015; Arkema et  al., 2017); space may \r not be available in certain places (e.g., intensive urbanization on \r the shoreline), or these measures may conflict with other human \r demands for scarce land (Tian et al., 2016). Successful nature-based \r measures require site-specific knowledge and science-based design, \r pilot monitoring and adaptive upscaling (Evans et al., 2017; Nesshover \r [...]"


id: 5993c568fba4075876336e29583f897c
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12998
content:
"[...] et al., 2017), as well as a more rigorous understanding of long-term \r performance, maintenance and costs (Kumar et al., 2021)."


id: c2b3531e575b3af2d795c8d563be4b9b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31536
content:
"Accommodation measures can be very effective for current conditions \r and small changes in SLR (Laurice Jamero et  al., 2017; Scussolini \r et al., 2017; Oppenheimer et al., 2019; Du et al., 2020; Haasnoot et al., \r 2021a), and buy time to prepare for more significant changes in sea \r level and other climate-compounded coastal hazards. However, limits \r to this strategy occur comparatively soon in some locations, possibly \r requiring protection in the medium term and retreat in the long run and \r beyond 2100, particularly in scenarios of dramatic SLR (Oppenheimer \r et al., 2019). For the foreseeable future, accommodation can play an \r important role in combination with protective measures to form hybrid \r interventions, with higher effectiveness than either approach in isolation \r (Du et al., 2020). Accommodation can play an increasingly important \r role where hard protection is neither technically nor financially viable, \r [...]"


id: 107ba97a414cb4c5e0e7015764dd07f8
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vector_id: 87
content:
"[...] but detailed studies about expected trends of accommodation are \r lacking (Oppenheimer et al., 2019)."


id: e52f55e62a5f83665268cfd445591b99
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vector_id: 37622
content:
"Many megacities plan to continue a protection strategy (Table SMCCP2.1). \r This becomes increasingly costly, institutionally challenging and requires \r space, possibly facilitated through local relocation. There is high agree\u0002ment that many C&S are locked-in to a self-reinforcing pathway: coastal \r defences have a long lifetime and attract people and assets that require \r further protection (Gralepois et  al., 2016; Bubeck et  al., 2017; Welch \r et al., 2017; Di Baldassarre et al., 2018; Jongman, 2018). Transitioning \r to alternative pathways may involve major transfer and sunk costs (e.g., \r Gralepois et al., 2016), but these may prove to be less costly in the long \r term. Because of considerable inertia in the built form of cities, such \r transitions have a greater chance of success and alignment with societal \r goals if embedded early into C&S planning and development process\u0002es that enable transformational change and CRD (Sections 6.4.8; 11.7; \r [...]"


id: 189deeff79c90770d52e2d07820e02f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1546
content:
"Retreat can effectively reduce exposure of urban residents to coastal \r hazards and provide opportunity for re-establishment of ecosystem \r services (very high confidence; Song et  al., 2018; Carey, 2020; \r Hindsley and Yoskowitz, 2020; Lincke et al., 2020; Lincke and Hinkel, \r 2021). But there is high confidence that it can sever cultural ties to \r the coast (Reimann et al., 2018) and lead to negative and inequitable \r socioeconomic effects for resettled communities if not planned and \r implemented in ways that are inclusive and just and address cultural, \r place-attachment and livelihood considerations (Ajibade, 2019; Adger \r et al., 2020; Carey, 2020; Jain et al., 2021; Johnson et al., 2021), as well \r as the rights and practices of Indigenous People (Nakashima et  al., \r 2018; Ristroph, 2019; Mohamed Shaffril et al., 2020). If planned well \r ahead and aligned with social goals, pathways to managed retreat can \r [...]"


id: 1c2480e9295fbec577d6fdc64fe825e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2138
content:
"[...] achieve positive outcomes and provide opportunities for transformation \r of coastal C&S (Haasnoot et al., 2021a; Mach and Siders, 2021). There \r is medium confidence that the availability of suitable and affordable \r land as well as appropriate financing is a major bottleneck for planned \r relocation (Alexander et al., 2012; Ong et al., 2016; Hino et al., 2017; \r Fisher and Goodliffe, 2019; Hanna et al., 2019; Buser, 2020; Doberstein \r et  al., 2020), particularly in very dense mega-urban areas (Ajibade, \r 2019) and crowded small islands (Neise and Revilla Diez, 2019; Weber \r et al., 2019; Kool et al., 2020; Lincke et al., 2020)."


id: f92c0981a0095afb64ce36a6ea6f2990
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41201
content:
"Locations in the Global South have limited public budgets allocated to \r coastal adaptation and may rely on international donor aid (Donner \r et  al., 2016; Araos et  al., 2017). Such aid is often inconsistent and \r short term, which limits long-term maintenance of the knowledge, \r equipment and infrastructure needed to sustain adaptation measures \r beyond initial funding periods (Weiler et al., 2018; Thomas et al., 2020), \r with resultant negative consequences in places as different as Kiribati \r (Donner and Webber, 2014) and Bangladesh (Hinkel et  al., 2018). \r Donor-funded adaptation programs aimed at promoting behavioural \r change, for example through coastal planning or new decision-making \r systems, require enduring training and institutional capacity, which is \r difficult to upkeep after aid is depleted. Donor funding is often project \r based and there are few avenues available to fund the additional \r permanent and long-term staff needed to bolster climate change \r [...]"


id: b741d348a425267ae95a3c4fb664fee4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29457
content:
"[...] institutions. Without funding to support additional staff, existing \r institutions often lack the human capacity and resources needed for \r coastal adaptation (Ziervogel and Parnell, 2014)."


id: ab9ba6d31fd7247f9972a0bfa4eabea9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27429
content:
"While coastal adaptation has largely been viewed as the responsibility \r of governments, private finance is increasingly recognised as necessary \r to help close the coastal adaptation funding gap (Ware and Banhalmi\u0002Zakar, 2020). Financial arrangements for coastal adaptation measures \r that align public-actor and private-investor interests are suitable for a \r range of budgets, from USD 10,000 to 100 million (Bisaro and Hinkel, \r 2018). Private equity instruments that involve real estate development \r companies have already been successfully implemented and are most \r effective in urban areas with high-value real estate development \r (Chiang and Ling, 2017). Public-private partnership equity instruments \r that engage construction and real estate developers have been \r successful for small- to medium-scale infrastructural projects. While \r public-private partnership bonds and public bonds have the potential \r to align public actors and private investors, such instruments require \r [...]"


id: 973f7cab04726a6ad4ef0dd5259e4851
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23802
content:
"[...] de-risking of coastal adaptation through enabling economic policy \r instruments, such as concessional loans (Bisaro and Hinkel, 2018)."


id: 9efd81f61325340f3213242778b17509
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25200
content:
"An array of climatic and non-climatic perils (Le Cozannet et al., 2017) \r present coastal communities and their governing authorities with \r immense governance and institutional challenges that will become \r progressively more difficult as sea level rises (high confidence; \r Wallace, 2017; Leal Filho et  al., 2018; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). \r Yet a study of public provisions for coastal adaptation in 136 of the \r largest coastal port-urban agglomerations across 68 countries found \r no policy implementation in 50% of the cases; in 85% of cases, \r adaptation actions are not framed by current impacts or future risks, \r and formal efforts are recent and concentrated in more developed \r settings (Olazabal et al., 2019; Olazabal and Ruiz De Gopegui, 2021), \r thus underscoring a persistent coastal adaptation gap. Translating \r these challenges into enabling governance conditions is difficult, \r but instructive lessons are being learned and are summarised (from \r [...]"


id: 1b72d7f36aa24a0c36ac254f22a9ac72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2006
content:
"Given the high costs of coastal adaptation, benefit-to-cost ratios (BCR) \r are often used to determine the value of investing in adaptation. \r BCR are high for urbanised coastal areas with high concentrations \r of assets (13% of the world's coastline), covering 90% of the global \r coastal floodplain population and 96% of assets in the global coastal \r floodplain (Lincke and Hinkel, 2018). A global assessment shows \r a BCR for investing in flood protection of up to ~120 (Tiggeloven et al., \r 2020). For Europe, at least 83% of flood damages could be avoided by \r elevating dikes along ~23-32% of Europe's coastline and BCR vary \r from 8.3 to 14.9, with higher ratios for higher concentration pathways \r (Section 13.2; Vousdoukas et al., 2020a). Globally, 40% of damages \r can be reduced with levees of 1 m and costs lower than avoided \r damage (Tamura et  al., 2019). For a mix of expensive storm surge \r barriers, nature-based solutions and flood-proofing measures for New \r [...]"


id: 1740a660f365547ec4d1e206fd610b40
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1310
content:
"[...] York City, Aerts et al. (2014) found BCRs <1 for the current situation, \r but >2 for a SLR scenario of +1 m."


id: bf8e04924b7ebd29d4d0ed2975acf7e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30964
content:
"To address the myriad governance challenges attributed to low \r awareness, low skills, scalar mismatches, and high socioeconomic \r inequality and coastal vulnerability, post-AR5 research highlights \r enablers of more innovative approaches to bridge capacity, policy and \r financial deficits (Reiblich et al., 2019), and facilitate more proactive \r implementation of coastal adaptation actions (Table  SMCCP2.2; Fu, \r 2020). A survey of NGOs, state and local government across Alaska, \r Florida and Maryland in the USA found that perceived risk, uncertainty \r and trust in support for climate adaptation varied across two stages of \r adaptation, that is between support for the development of plans and \r willingness to allocate human and financial resources to implement \r plans (Kettle and Dow, 2016). To bridge this gap, Cinner et al. (2018) \r suggest the need to build capacity across five domains: the assets \r that people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change \r [...]"


