# document

id: 7c1b5ace8b7ea1dec36472b99dd4aa9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19043
content:
"Widespread disappearance of Arctic near-surface permafrost \r\nis projected to occur this century as a result of warming (very\r\nhigh confidence), with important consequences for global \r\nclimate. By 2100, near-surface permafrost area will decrease \r\nby  2-66% for RCP2.6 and 30-99% for RCP8.5. This is projected \r\nto release 10s to 100s of billions of tons (Gt C), up to as much as \r\n240 Gt C, of permafrost carbon as carbon dioxide and methane to \r\nthe atmosphere with the potential to accelerate climate change. \r\nMethane will contribute a small proportion of these additional carbon \r\nemissions, on the order of 0.01-0.06 Gt CH4 yr-1, but could contribute \r\n40-70% of the total permafrost-affected radiative forcing because of \r\nits higher warming potential. There is medium evidence but with low \r\nagreement whether the level and timing of increased plant growth \r\nand replenishment of soil will compensate these permafrost carbon \r\nlosses. {3.4.2; 3.4.3}"


id: 9c6408a6885efe952da78d40bfc7d652
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24766
content:
"Both polar oceans will be increasingly affected by CO2\r\nuptake, causing conditions corrosive for calcium carbonate \r\nshell-producing organisms (high confidence), with associated \r\nimpacts on marine organisms and ecosystems (medium \r\nconfidence). It is very likely that both the Southern Ocean and the \r\nArctic Ocean will experience year-round conditions of surface water \r\nundersaturation for mineral forms of calcium carbonate by 2100 \r\nunder RCP8.5; under RCP2.6 the extent of undersaturated waters \r\nare reduced markedly. Imperfect representation of local processes \r\nand sea ice interaction in global climate models limit the ability to \r\nproject the response of specific polar areas and the precise timing of \r\nundersaturation at seasonal scales. Differences in sensitivity and the \r\nscope for adaptation to projected levels of ocean acidification exist \r\nacross a broad range of marine species groups. {3.2.1; 3.2.2.3; 3.2.3}"


id: a74b5ed1d7127ed133fc30e74c2f655d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26654
content:
"Response options exist that can ameliorate the impacts of \r\npolar change, build resilience and allow time for effective \r\nmitigation measures. Institutional barriers presently limit \r\ntheir efficacy."


id: b6b4c4c9dcad8ad939dd6362ae49f7ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29346
content:
"The projected effects of climate-induced stressors on \r\npolar marine ecosystems present risks for commercial and \r\nsubsistence fisheries with implications for regional economies, \r\ncultures and the global supply of fish, shellfish, and Antarctic \r\nkrill (high confidence). Future impacts for linked human \r\nsystems depend on the level of mitigation and especially the \r\nresponsiveness of precautionary management approaches \r\n(medium confidence). Polar regions support several of the \r\nworld's largest commercial fisheries. Specific impacts on the stocks \r\nand economic value in both regions will depend on future climate "


id: 9441e9f986094ecd2cc4cdbeff3c5e42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23288
content:
"Responding to climate change in polar regions will be more \r\neffective if attention to reducing immediate risks (short-term \r\nadaptation) is concurrent with long-term planning that builds \r\nresilience to address expected and unexpected impacts (high \r\nconfidence). Emphasis on short-term adaptation to specific problems \r\nwill ultimately not succeed in reducing the risks and vulnerabilities to "


id: 4daba78204d3a767f890c04ef91ed607
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10942
content:
"society given the scale, complexity and uncertainty of climate change. \r\nMoving toward a  dual focus of short- and long-term adaptation \r\ninvolves knowledge co-production, linking knowledge with decision \r\nmaking and implementing ecosystem-based stewardship, which \r\ninvolves the transformation of many existing institutions (high \r\nconfidence). {3.5.4}"


id: 49fb618271bd28c1cc849b27b79ad135
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10260
content:
"Innovative tools and practices in polar resource management \r\nand planning show strong potential in improving society's \r\ncapacity to respond to climate change (high confidence). \r\nNetworks of protected areas, participatory scenario analysis, decision \r\nsupport systems, community-based ecological monitoring that \r\ndraws on local and indigenous knowledge, and self assessments \r\nof community resilience contribute to strategic plans for sustaining \r\nbiodiversity and limit risk to human livelihoods and wellbeing. Such \r\npractices are most effective when linked closely to the policy process. \r\nExperimenting, assessing, and continually refining practices while \r\nstrengthening the links with decision making has the potential to \r\nready society for the expected and unexpected impacts of climate \r\nchange (high confidence). {3.5.1, 3.5.2, 3.5.4}"


id: e9c3f5fc567280adaf9c762048634a0f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38477
content:
"Institutional arrangements that provide for strong multiscale \r\nlinkages with Arctic local communities can benefit from \r\nincluding indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in the \r\nformulation of adaptation strategies (high confidence). The \r\ntightly coupled relationship of northern local communities and their \r\nenvironment provide an opportunity to better understand climate \r\nchange and its effects, support adaptation and limit unintended \r\nconsequences. Enabling conditions for the involvement of local \r\ncommunities in climate adaptation planning include investments in \r\nhuman capital, engagement processes for knowledge co-production \r\nand systems of adaptive governance. {3.5.3}"


id: febeef719e8b25b2fb0917f5b1c876e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42207
content:
"The capacity of governance systems in polar regions to \r\nrespond to climate change has strengthened recently, but \r\nthe development of these systems is not sufficiently rapid or \r\nrobust to address the challenges and risks to societies posed \r\nby projected changes (high confidence). Human responses \r\nto climate change in the polar regions occur in a  fragmented \r\ngovernance landscape. Climate change, new polar interests from \r\noutside the regions, and an increasingly active role played by informal \r\norganisations are compelling stronger coordination and integration \r\nbetween different levels and sectors of governance. The governance \r\nlandscape is currently not sufficiently equipped to address cascading \r\nrisks and uncertainty in an integrated and precautionary way within \r\nexisting legal and policy frameworks (high confidence). {3.5.3, 3.5.4}"


id: 85ee2db0f6771b9e38fe66b997f28a1a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20706
content:
"Important differences in the physical setting of the two polar regions - \r\nthe Arctic, an ocean surrounded by land, the Antarctic, a continent \r\nsurrounded by an ocean  - structure the nature and magnitude of \r\ninteractions of cryosphere and ocean systems and their global \r\nlinkages. The different physical settings have also led to the evolution \r\nof unique marine and terrestrial biology in each polar region and \r\nshape effects, impacts and adaptation of polar ecosystems."


id: f8d0b011fc8285cb624f87095b45fbbe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41138
content:
"This chapter provides an integrated assessment of climate change \r\nacross the physical, biological and human dimensions of the polar \r\nregions, based on emerging understanding that assessing these \r\ndimensions in isolation is not sufficient or forward-looking. This \r\noffers the opportunity, for the first time in a global report, to trace \r\ncause and consequence of climate change from polar ocean and \r\ncryosphere systems to biological and social impacts, and relate \r\nthem to responses to reduce risks and enhance adaptation options \r\nand resilience. To achieve this, the chapter draws on the body of \r\nliterature and assessments pertaining to climate-induced dynamics \r\nand functioning of the polar regions published since the AR5, which \r\nhas expanded considerably motivated in large part by growing \r\nappreciation of the importance of these regions to planetary systems \r\nand to the lives and livelihoods of people across the globe."


id: f17c72817b77cc27c049083768f6869e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39870
content:
"As integral parts of the Earth system, the polar regions interact with \r\nthe rest of the world through shared ocean, atmosphere, ecological \r\nand social systems; notably, they are key components of the global \r\nclimate system. This chapter therefore takes a  systems approach \r\nthat emphasises the interactions of cryosphere and ocean changes \r\nand their diverse consequences and impacts to assess key issues \r\nof climatic change for the polar regions, the planet and its people \r\n(Figure 3.1)."


id: 6d25ea97dfa6908ccfa64f886ae4ce92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16482
content:
"Consideration of all peer-reviewed scientific knowledge is a hallmark \r\nof the IPCC assessment process. Indigenous knowledge and local \r\nknowledge are different and unique sources of knowledge that are \r\nincreasingly recognised to contribute to observing, understanding, \r\nand responding to climate-induced changes (Cross-Chapter Box \r\n4  in Chapter  1). Considering indigenous knowledge and local \r\nknowledge facilitates cooperation in the development, identification, \r\nand decision making processes for responding to climate change \r\nin communities across the Arctic, and better understanding of the \r\nchallenges facing Indigenous peoples. This chapter incorporates \r\npublished indigenous knowledge and local knowledge for assessing \r\nclimate change impacts and responses."


id: c5b5741de7c83afcc28f87d94ff30e41
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32091
content:
"The spatial footprints of the polar regions (Figure 3.2) include a vast \r\nshare of the world's ocean and cryosphere: they encompass surface \r\nareas equalling 20% of the global ocean and more than 90% of the \r\nworld's continuous and discontinuous permafrost area, 69% of the \r\nworld's glacier area including both of the world's ice sheets, almost \r\nall of the world's sea ice, and land areas with the most persistent \r\nwinter snow cover."


id: 38357db4ff012454c30c5da6cfc9f790
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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vector_id: 7094
content:
"Figure 3.1 |  Schematic of some of the key features and mechanisms assessed in this Chapter, and by which the cryosphere and ocean in the polar regions influence \r\nclimate, ecological and social systems in the regions and across the globe. Specific elements are labelled, and section numbers given for where detailed assessment \r\ninformation can be found. "


id: c2e45793253533cc6c58c082e5faf8b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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vector_id: 31566
content:
"Consistent with AR5, it is likely that Antarctic ozone depletion has been the dominant driver of the positive trend in the SAM \r\nduring austral summer from the late 1970s to the late 1990s (Schneider et al., 2015; Waugh et al., 2015; Karpechko et al., 2018), \r\nthe period during which ozone depletion was increasing. There is high confidence through a growing body of literature that variability \r\nof tropical sea surface temperatures can influence Antarctic temperature changes (Li et al., 2014; Turner et al., 2016; Clem et al., 2017; \r\nSmith and Polvani, 2017) and the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude circulation (Li et al., 2015a; Raphael et al., 2016; Turney et al., \r\n2017; Evtushevsky et al., 2018; Yuan et al., 2018). New research suggests a stronger role of tropical sea surface temperatures in driving \r\nchanges in the SAM since 2000 (Schneider et al., 2015; Clem et al., 2017)."


id: 17a68b8bf0a6a5633b08a3bb1bbcc48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1369
content:
"habitat for ice-associated species. Sea ice characteristics differ \r\nbetween the Arctic and Antarctic. Expansion of winter sea ice in the \r\nArctic is limited by land, and ice circulates within the central Arctic \r\nbasin, some of which survives the summer melt season to form \r\nmulti-year ice. Arctic sea ice variability and impacts on communities \r\nincludes indigenous knowledge and local knowledge from across the \r\ncircumpolar Arctic (Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1). The Antarctic \r\ncontinent is surrounded by sea ice which interacts with adjacent ice \r\nshelves; winter season expansion is limited by the influence of the \r\nAntarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)."


id: 67173a1d6b507258a10b91ec703e0b83
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 15408
content:
"Chukchi, Laptev and Kara seas (Onarheim et al., 2018). Winter ice loss \r\nis dominated by reductions within the Barents Sea, responsible for \r\n27% of the pan-Arctic March sea ice trends (Onarheim and Arthun, \r\n2017). Summer Arctic sea ice loss since 1979 is unprecedented in \r\n150 years based on historical reconstructions (Walsh et al., 2017) and \r\nmore than 1000 years based on palaeoclimate evidence (Polyak et al., \r\n2010; Kinnard et al., 2011; Halfar et al., 2013) (medium confidence)."


id: 299c18d07ead886ae1ede75cd8a07d5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4548
content:
"The pan-Arctic loss of sea ice cover is a prominent indicator of climate \r\nchange. Sea ice extent (the total area of the Arctic with at least 15% \r\nsea ice concentration) has declined since 1979 in each month of the \r\nyear (very high confidence) (Barber et al., 2017; Comiso et al., 2017b; \r\nStroeve and Notz, 2018) (Figure 3.3). Changes are largest in summer \r\nand smallest in winter, with the strongest trends in September \r\n(1979-2018; summer month with the lowest sea ice cover) of \r\n-83,000 km2\r\n yr-1 (-12.8% per decade +- 2.3% relative to 1981-2010 \r\nmean), and -41,000 km2\r\n yr-1 (-2.7% per decade +- 0.5% relative to \r\n1981-2010 mean) for March (1979-2019; winter month with the \r\ngreatest sea ice cover) (Onarheim et al., 2018). Regionally, summer \r\nice loss is dominated by reductions in the East Siberian Sea (explains \r\n22% of the September trend), and large declines in the Beaufort, "


id: 7fbf77c4ec2817a9df4911eead07626c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19611
content:
"Approximately half of the observed Arctic summer sea ice loss is \r\ndriven by increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, \r\nwith the remainder attributed to internal climate variability (Kay \r\net al., 2011; Notz and Marotzke, 2012) (medium confidence). The sea \r\nice albedo feedback (increased air temperature reduces sea ice cover, \r\nallowing more energy to be absorbed at the surface, fostering more \r\nmelt) is a key driver of sea ice loss (Perovich and Polashenski, 2012; "


id: ee02018e3a439957d7983cc5c31d6175
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39249
content:
"Coupled climate models indicate that anthropogenic warming at \r\nthe surface is delayed by the Southern Ocean circulation, which \r\ntransports heat downwards into the deep ocean (Armour et al., 2016). \r\nThis overturning circulation (Cross-Chapter Box 7  in Chapter  3), \r\nalong with differing cloud and lapse rate feedbacks (Goosse et al., \r\n2018), may explain the weak response of Antarctic sea ice cover to \r\nincreased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations compared \r\nto the Arctic (medium confidence). Because Antarctic sea ice extent \r\nhas remained below climatological values since 2016, there is still \r\npotential for longer-term changes to emerge in the Antarctic (Meehl \r\net al., 2019), similar to the Arctic."


id: 2dc2c4a9d5e76825ffb88cab8c82695a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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vector_id: 5339
content:
"Historical surface observations (Murphy et al., 2014), reconstructions \r\n(Abram et al., 2013b), ship records (de la Mare, 2009; Edinburgh \r\nand Day, 2016), early satellite images (Gallaher et al., 2014), and \r\nmodel simulations (Gagne et al., 2015) indicate a decrease in overall \r\nAntarctic sea ice cover since the early 1960s which is too modest \r\nto be separated from natural variability (Hobbs et al., 2016a) \r\n(high confidence)."


id: c910cad58c62775d67cc92c99d40ae94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32694
content:
"Although Arctic ice freeze-up is occurring later (Section  3.2.1.1.3), \r\nrapid thermodynamic ice growth occurs over thin ice areas after air \r\ntemperatures drop below freezing in autumn. Later freeze-up also \r\ndelays snowfall accumulation on sea ice, leading to a thinner and \r\nless insulating snowpack (Section  3.2.1.1.6) (Sturm and Massom, \r\n2016). These two negative feedbacks help to mitigate sudden and \r\nirreversible loss of Arctic sea ice (Armour et al., 2011)."


id: b9e9b7e1336f53344be4f19739f60cb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29930
content:
"Total Antarctic sea ice cover exhibits no significant trend over the \r\nperiod of satellite observations (Figure  3.3; 1979-2018) (high \r\nconfidence) (Ludescher et al., 2018). A  significant positive trend \r\nin mean annual ice cover between 1979 and 2015 (Comiso et al., \r\n2017a) has not persisted, due to three consecutive years of below \r\naverage ice cover (2016-2018) driven by atmospheric and oceanic \r\nforcing (Turner et al., 2017b; Kusahara et al., 2018; Meehl et al., \r\n2019; Wang et al., 2019). The overall Antarctic sea ice extent trend \r\nis composed of near-compensating regional changes, with rapid ice \r\nloss in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas counteracted by rapid \r\nice gain in the Weddell and Ross seas (Holland, 2014) (Figure 3.3). \r\nThese regional trends are strongly seasonal in character (Holland, \r\n2014); only the western Ross Sea has a  trend that is statistically \r\nsignificant in all seasons, relative to the variance during the period of \r\nsatellite observations."


id: 6fee54f94eb2f8509808d3fc60527116
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16947
content:
"Multiple factors contribute to the regionally variable nature of \r\nAntarctic sea ice extent trends (Matear et al., 2015; Hobbs et al., \r\n2016b). Sea ice trends are closely related to meridional wind trends \r\n(high confidence) (Holland and Kwok, 2012; Haumann et al., 2014): \r\npoleward wind trends in the Bellingshausen Sea push sea ice closer \r\nto the coast (Holland and Kwok, 2012) and advect warm air to the \r\nsea ice zone (Kusahara et al., 2017), and the reverse is true over \r\nmuch of the Ross Sea. These meridional wind trends are linked to \r\nPacific variability (Coggins and McDonald, 2015; Meehl et al., 2016; \r\nPurich et al., 2016b). Ozone depletion may also affect meridional \r\nwinds (Fogt and Zbacnik, 2014; England et al., 2016), but there is \r\nlow confidence that this explains observed sea ice trends (Landrum \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 84148028e8c417fa7895bd5bfc029b05
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20395
content:
"Surface observations of Antarctic sea ice thickness are extremely sparse \r\n(Worby et al., 2008). There are no consistent long-term observations \r\nfrom which trends in ice volume may be derived. Calibrated model \r\nsimulations suggest that ice thickness trends closely follow those \r\nof ice concentration (Massonnet et al., 2013; Holland et al., 2014) \r\n(medium confidence). Satellite altimeter datasets of Antarctic sea ice \r\nthickness are emerging (Paul et al., 2018) but definitive trends are \r\nnot yet available."


id: bbada24af856c06141cb80fbf43fee08
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30244
content:
"There is high confidence that the Arctic sea ice melt season has \r\nextended by 3 days per decade since 1979 due earlier melt onset, \r\nand 7  days per decade due to later freeze-up (Stroeve and Notz, \r\n2018). This longer melt season is consistent with the observed loss \r\nof sea ice extent and thickness (Sections 3.2.1.1.1; 3.2.1.1.2). While \r\nthe melt onset trends are smaller, they play a large role in the earlier \r\ndevelopment of open water (Stroeve et al., 2012b; Serreze et al., \r\n2016) and melt pond development (Perovich and Polashenski, 2012) \r\nwhich enhance the sea ice albedo feedback (Stroeve et al., 2014b; Liu \r\net al., 2015a). Observed reductions in the duration of seasonal sea ice \r\ncover are reflected in community-based observations of decreased \r\nlength of time in which activities can safely take place on sea ice \r\n(Laidler et al., 2010; Eisner et al., 2013; Fall et al., 2013; Ignatowski \r\nand Rosales, 2013)."


id: 509a5b7dde817bff4f71fd7fe933eeae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11456
content:
"Changes in the duration of Antarctic sea ice cover over 1979-2011 \r\nlargely followed the spatial pattern of sea ice extent trends with \r\nreduced ice cover duration in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea \r\nregion in summer and autumn owing to earlier retreat and later \r\nadvance, and increases in the Ross Sea due to later ice retreat and \r\nearlier advance (Stammerjohn et al., 2012)."


id: 8b4ed6f1910467d4cbb3905070e00f5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21671
content:
"Arctic landfast ice is important to northern residents as \r\na  platform for travel, hunting, and access to offshore regions \r\n(Sections 3.4.3.3, 3.5.2.2). Reports of thinning, less stable, and less \r\npredictable landfast ice have been documented by residents of \r\ncoastal communities in Alaska (Eisner et al., 2013; Fall et al., 2013; \r\nHuntington et al., 2017), the Canadian Arctic (Laidler et al., 2010), \r\nand Chukotka (Inuit Circumpolar Council, 2014). The impact of \r\nchanging prevailing wind forcing on local ice conditions has been \r\nspecifically noted (Rosales and Chapman, 2015) including impacts on \r\nthe landfast ice edge and polynyas (Box 3.3) (Gearheard et al., 2013). \r\nLong-term records of Antarctic landfast ice are limited in space \r\nand time (Stammerjohn and Maksym, 2016), with a high degree of \r\nregional variability in trends (Fraser et al., 2011) (low confidence)."


id: dec2aa97923e0107e71b94feb6f411ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36455
content:
"Snow accumulation on sea ice inhibits sea ice melt through a high \r\nalbedo, but the insulating properties limit sea ice growth (Sturm and \r\nMassom, 2016) and inhibits photosynthetic light (important for in\u0002and under-ice biota) from reaching the bottom of the ice (Mundy \r\net al., 2007). If snow on first-year ice is sufficiently thick, it can \r\ndepress the ice below the sea level surface, which forms snow-ice \r\ndue to surface flooding. This process is widespread in the Antarctic \r\n(Maksym and Markus, 2008) and the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic \r\n(Merkouriadi et al., 2017), and may become more common across \r\nthe Arctic (with implications for sea ice ecosystems) as the ice \r\nregime shifts to thinner seasonal ice (Olsen et al., 2017; Granskog \r\net al., 2018) (medium confidence)."


id: fd35bebdc0df9357a917de4b81234ee6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41898
content:
"Satellite estimates of sea ice drift velocity show significant trends in \r\nAntarctic ice drift (Holland and Kwok, 2012). Increased northward drift \r\nin the Ross Sea and decreased northward drift in the Bellingshausen \r\nand Weddell seas agree with the respective ice extent gains and \r\nlosses in these regions, but there is only medium confidence in these \r\ntrends due to a small number of ice drift data products derived from \r\ntemporally inconsistent satellite records (Haumann et al., 2016)."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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vector_id: 1289
content:
"Despite the importance of snow on sea ice (Webster et al., 2018), \r\nsurface or satellite derived observations of snowfall over sea ice, and \r\nsnow depth on sea ice are lacking (Webster et al., 2014). The primary "


id: bdf92b776524619ed237190e6b10d21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30684
content:
"Immobile sea ice anchored to land or ice shelves is referred to as \r\n'landfast'. The few long term surface (auger hole) records of Arctic "


id: c17a2bd174b69e2eeec9422747f644b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31345
content:
"source of snow depth on Arctic sea ice are based on observations \r\ncollected decades ago (Warren et al., 1999) the utility of which are \r\nimpacted by the rapid loss of multi-year ice across the central Arctic \r\n(Stroeve and Notz, 2018), and large interannual variability in snow \r\ndepth on sea ice (Webster et al., 2014). Airborne radar retrievals of \r\nsnow depth on sea ice provide more recent estimates, but spatial and \r\ntemporal sampling is highly discontinuous (Kurtz and Farrell, 2011). \r\nMulti-source time series provide evidence of declining snow depth \r\non Arctic sea ice (Webster et al., 2014) consistent with estimates of \r\nhigher fractions of liquid precipitation since 2000 (Boisvert et al., "


id: 65accbae164169ba0f2c83361907b3fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15151
content:
"2018) but there is low confidence because surface measurements \r\nfor validation are extremely limited and suggest a  high degree of \r\nregional variability (Haas et al., 2017; Rosel et al., 2018). "


id: cea3b347395da7aa155f18ccdcd957e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33695
content:
"Although there are regional estimates of snow depth on Antarctic \r\nsea ice from satellite (Kern and Ozsoy-Cicek, 2016), airborne remote \r\nsensing (Kwok and Maksym, 2014), field measurements (Massom \r\net al., 2001) and ship-based observations (Worby et al., 2008), \r\ndata are not sufficient in time nor space to assess changes in snow \r\naccumulation on Antarctic sea ice."


id: 95d1fe40cff454e20cf9f101753a0d92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23556
content:
"Only a few studies have focused on the potential impact of Antarctic sea ice changes on the mid-latitude circulation (Kidston et al., \r\n2011; Raphael et al., 2011; Bader et al., 2013; Smith et al., 2017b; England et al., 2018); these find that any impacts on the jet stream \r\nare strongly dependent on the season and model examined. England et al. (2018) suggest that the response of the jet stream to future \r\nAntarctic sea ice loss may in fact be less seasonal than the response to Arctic sea ice loss."


id: f5ac7c40afc33dfd5734e256d75afd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40589
content:
"1950-2010 show the Arctic Ocean water of Atlantic origin (i.e., the \r\nAtlantic Water Layer) warming starting in the 1970s. Warming trends \r\nhave continued: August trends for 1982-2017 reveal summer mixed \r\nlayer temperatures increasing at about 0.5oC per decade over large \r\nsectors of the Arctic basin that are ice-free in summer (Timmermans \r\net al., 2017) (Figure  3.3). This is primarily the result of increased \r\nabsorption of solar radiation accompanying sea ice loss (Perovich, \r\n2016). Between 1979 and 2011, the decrease in Arctic Ocean albedo \r\ncorresponded to more solar energy input to the ocean (virtually \r\ncertain) of approximately  6.4 +-  0.9 Wm-2 (Pistone et al., 2014), \r\nlikely reducing the growth of sea ice by up to 25% in both Eurasian \r\nand Canadian basins (Timmermans, 2015; Ivanov et al., 2016) \r\n(Section 3.2.1.1)."


id: a365e9ef9cfc39cec6e5abdfcbff271
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25956
content:
"The Polar Oceans are amongst the most rapidly changing oceans of \r\nthe world, with consequences for global-scale storage and cycling \r\nof heat, carbon and other climatically and ecologically important \r\nproperties (SM3.2.1; Figure SM3.2). "


id: 8f5147d6cc92132055cabe70b581e4d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22424
content:
"Ocean temperatures and associated heat fluxes have a  primary \r\ninfluence on sea ice (e.g., Carmack et al., 2015; Steele and Dickinson, \r\n2016). WGI AR5 (their Section  3.2.2) reported that Canada Basin \r\nsurface waters warmed from 1993 to 2007, and observations over "


id: 9634150d0e78038a454a1290d4bd8395
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23622
content:
"Table 3.1 |  Ocean heat content trend (0-2000 m depth) during 2005-2017 and 1970-2017 for the global ocean and Southern Ocean. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) \r\nmethod is used; units are 1021 J yr-1. Uncertainties denote the 90% confidence interval accounting for the reduction in the degrees of freedom implied by temporal \r\ncorrelations of residuals, as per Section 5.2. Values in curved brackets are percentages of heat gain by the Southern Ocean relative to the global ocean. Data sources are as \r\nper Table SM3.1. The mean proportion and its 5-95% confidence interval (1.65 times standard deviation of individual estimates) are in the last column."


id: 2de73328f61f00cfb43c7d9f6d743f4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5356
content:
"ACC itself are driven predominantly by air-sea flux changes (Swart \r\net al., 2018), the warming on its northern side appears strongly \r\ninfluenced by wind-forced changes in the thickness and depth of \r\nthe mode water layer (Desbruyeres et al., 2017; Gao et al., 2018) \r\n(medium confidence). Below the surface south of the ACC, warming \r\nextends close to Antarctica, intruding onto the continental shelf in \r\nthe Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea where temperature increases \r\nof  0.1oC-0.3oC per decade have been observed over 1983-2012 \r\n(Schmidtko et al., 2014) (Section 3.3.1.5). This latter warming may be \r\ndriven by changes in wind forcing (Spence et al., 2014), and exhibits \r\nsignificant decadal variability (Jenkins et al., 2018)."


id: 1bf6b0715f45d6ccb3227a6b728e867a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2107
content:
"The ocean below 2000 m  globally stores ~19% of the excess \r\nanthropogenic heat in the Earth system, with a large fraction (6% \r\nof global total heat excess) located in the deep Southern Ocean \r\nsouth of 30oS (Frolicher et al., 2015; Talley et al., 2016) (medium \r\nconfidence). The WGI AR5-quantified warming of these waters was \r\nrecently updated (Desbruyeres et al., 2017) to an equivalent heat \r\nuptake of 0.07 +- 0.06 W m-2 below 2000 m since the beginning of \r\nthe century, resulting in an extra 34 +- 14 TW south of 30oS from 1980 \r\nto 2012 (Purkey and Johnson, 2013). Antarctic Bottom Water volume \r\nis decreasing (Purkey and Johnson, 2012), resulting in a deepening \r\nof density surfaces and driving much of the warming on depth \r\nsurfaces below 2000 m (Desbruyeres et al., 2017). This reduction in "


id: 8f27afb315ed1b544523550d404286d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22386
content:
"Surface warming during 1982-2016 was strongest along the northern \r\nflank of the ACC, contrasting with cooling further south (Figure 3.3). \r\nInterior warming was strongest in the upper 2000  m, peaking \r\naround 40oS-50oS (Armour et al., 2016) (SM3.2.1; Figures SM3.2 and \r\nSM3.3). There is high confidence that this pattern of change is driven \r\nby upper-ocean overturning circulation and mixing (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 7 in Chapter 3), whereby heat uptake at the surface by newly \r\nupwelled waters is transmitted to the ocean interior in intermediate \r\ndepth layers (Armour et al., 2016). Whilst temperature trends in the "


id: 79bd572709824bd8cd0f5e2fa92b1bd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18626
content:
"bottom water volume is suggestive of a decrease in its production \r\n(Purkey and Johnson, 2013). In the Indian and Pacific basins close \r\nto Antarctica, bottom water is freshening (Purkey and Johnson, \r\n2013; Menezes et al., 2017) consistent with the uptake of enhanced \r\nAntarctic ice shelf and glacial melt (Purkey and Johnson, 2013)."


id: 59bea88112db338ab03b9016120d60cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13030
content:
"sea ice export has increased by 20 +- 10% from 1982 to 2008, and \r\nthat this may have driven freshening of 0.002 +- 0.001 yr-1 in the \r\nsurface and intermediate waters. Separately, the central role of sea \r\nice in driving water mass transformations in the Southern Ocean \r\nhas been highlighted (Abernathey et al., 2016; Pellichero et al., \r\n2018; Swart et al., 2018), hence such changes have the potential to \r\naffect overturning circulation (Cross-Chapter Box 7  in Chapter  3). \r\nFreshwater input to the ocean from the Antarctic Ice Sheet also has \r\nthe potential to affect the properties and circulation of Southern \r\nOcean water masses; see Section 3.3.3."


id: 4dfa2166754d885d731cf820c57304d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10980
content:
"Salinity is the dominant determinant of polar ocean density, and \r\nexerts major controls on stratification, circulation and mixing. Salinity \r\nchanges are induced by freshwater runoff to the ocean (rivers and \r\nland ice), net precipitation, sea ice, and advection of mid-latitude \r\nwaters, with the potential to impact water mass formation and \r\ncirculation (e.g., Thornalley et al., 2018; see also Section 6.7.1)."


id: be3c155f8e75b456b91983edd1fd1427
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30735
content:
"Various elements of marine biogeochemistry and geochemistry in the \r\npolar regions are of global importance. Here we focus on aspects \r\nrelevant to carbon and ocean acidification; others (e.g., changes in \r\ndissolved oxygen) are assessed in Section 5.2.2. Compiled datasets \r\non observed trends in ocean acidification from different observational \r\nplatforms can be found in Table SM5.3."


id: f0649d52241426dc7e318e4d664e0f7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39673
content:
"About a quarter of carbon dioxide (CO2) released by human activities \r\nis taken up by the ocean (WGI AR5, their Section 3.8). This dissolves in \r\nsurface water to form carbonic acid, which, upon dissociation, causes \r\na decrease in pH (acidification) and carbonate ion (CO3\r\n2- ) concentration. \r\nThis can affect organisms that form shells and skeletons using calcium \r\ncarbonate (CaCO3, aragonite and calcite as dominant mineral forms). \r\nSince AR5, new observations have demonstrated the spatial and \r\ntemporal variability of ocean acidification and controlling mechanisms \r\nof carbon systems in different regions (Bellerby et al., 2018). "


id: 4001264abf1d7ecf47243702377cb50f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8451
content:
"The dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration increased \r\nin subsurface waters (150-1400  m) in the central Arctic \r\nbetween 1991 and 2011 (Ericson et al., 2014). The rate of \r\nincrease was  0.6-0.9 mmol kg-1 yr-1 in the Arctic Atlantic Water \r\nand  0.4-0.6 mmol kg-1 yr-1 in the upper Polar Deep Water due to \r\nanthropogenic CO2, while no trend was observed in nutrient "


id: b038867b6f874f6ac1b8d31a282617be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28242
content:
"storage of anthropogenic carbon are not well resolved and there is \r\nweak agreement between reanalysis products and Coupled Model \r\nIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (Swart et al., 2014). \r\nThe presence of subduction hotspots suggest that basin-wide studies \r\nmay be underestimating the importance of mode water subduction \r\nas a principal storage mechanism (Langlais et al., 2017). "


id: de168933f5c6335644e9d984b1a7a3ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36336
content:
"concentrations. In waters below 2000  m, no significant trend was \r\nobserved for DIC and nutrient concentrations. Observation-based \r\nestimates (MacGilchrist et al., 2014) revealed a  net summertime \r\npan-Arctic export of 231 +- 49 TgC yr-1 of DIC across the Arctic Ocean \r\ngateways to the North Atlantic; at least 166 +- 60 TgC yr-1 of this \r\nwas sequestered from the atmosphere (medium confidence). Similar \r\nto other regions (Table SM5.3), observed changes in the carbonate \r\nchemistry of the Arctic are indicative of ongoing ocean acidification \r\n(high confidence)."


id: fa4092806c0086ec38686648b6d04619
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41400
content:
"Strengthening impacts of Southern Ocean acidification are \r\nillustrated by the 3.9 +- 1.3% decrease in derived calcification rates \r\n(1998-2014) (Freeman and Lovenduski, 2015). These have strong \r\nregional character, with decreases in the Indian and Pacific sectors \r\n(7.5-11.6%) and increases in the Atlantic (14.3 +- 5.1%). There have \r\nalso been changes in the seasonality of pCO2 linked to decreasing \r\nbuffer capacity (McNeil and Sasse, 2016) (SM3.2.4) or adjustments \r\nto primary production (Conrad and Lovenduski, 2015); seasonal \r\nchanges are discussed further in Section 5.2.2."


id: 3153cffdb673b75a85fce899f04d6dfb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5927
content:
"Studies covering seasonal-to-decadal variability in the Arctic are \r\nlimited, with most conducted in ice-free or low ice periods during \r\nsummer to autumn. However, it has been demonstrated that biological \r\nprocesses, respiration and photosynthesis, control the CaCO3 saturation \r\nstates in Chukchi Sea bottom water (Yamamoto-Kawai et al., 2016). \r\nSea ice formation and melt influence the dynamics of ikaite (CaCO3\r\nprecipitation trapped in sea ice during brine rejection), and therefore \r\nlocal carbonate chemistry (Rysgaard et al., 2013; Bates et al., 2014; \r\nGeilfus et al., 2016; Fransson et al., 2017). Although the increase of \r\npH and saturation states by biological carbon fixation that consumes \r\nDIC in surface water is well documented (Azetsu-Scott et al., 2014; \r\nYamamoto-Kawai et al., 2016) (high confidence), it has been shown \r\nthat long photoperiods in Arctic summers sustain high pH in kelp \r\nforests, slowing ocean acidification (Krause-Jensen et al., 2016)."


id: 88786bbc63c8e84bd1aa18e8d89e25c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21172
content:
"The major elements of Southern Ocean circulation are assessed \r\nin Cross-Chapter Box 7  in Chapter  3; Arctic Ocean circulation is \r\nconsidered here. Arctic processes, such as discharge of freshwater \r\nfrom the Greenland Ice Sheet, have the potential to impact \r\non the formation of the headwaters of the Atlantic Meridional \r\nOverturning Circulation (Section  6.7.1), and can impact on the \r\nstructure and function of the marine ecosystem with implications for \r\ncommercially-harvested species (Sections 3.2.3, 3.2.4)."


id: 6865ad811a38bad8c76e1826cc21cb64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15634
content:
"In contrast to the Southern Ocean (Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3), \r\nthere is comparatively little knowledge on changing Arctic frontal \r\npositions and current cores since AR5. An exception is that the \r\nBeaufort Gyre expanded to the northwest between 2003 and 2014, \r\ncontemporaneous with changes in its freshwater accumulation and \r\nalterations in wind forcing, resulting in increased proximity to the \r\nChukchi Plateau and Mendeleev Ridge (Armitage et al., 2017; Regan \r\net al., 2019) (Section 3.2.1.2.2)."


id: 6c3a5a3369590448ac24d8fb923e799
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16337
content:
"Southern Ocean carbon storage is affected by changes in overturning \r\ncirculation (Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3), with the storage of \r\nanthropogenic and natural carbon being both variable and out of \r\nphase on decadal timescales (DeVries et al., 2017; Tanhua et al., \r\n2017) (Table SM3.4). Mode and intermediate waters are strongly \r\ninvolved in changing storage, also showing high sensitivity to shifts \r\nin winds (Swart et al., 2014; Swart et al., 2015a; Tanhua et al., 2017; \r\nGruber et al., 2019a). Zonal basin differences in the uptake and "


id: 5c7895b4e053022e6b5de516a3b5711d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13529
content:
"Authors: Michael P. Meredith (UK), Robert Hallberg (US), Alessandro Tagliabue (UK), Andrew Meijers (UK/Australia), Jamie Oliver (UK), \r\nAndrew Hogg (Australia)"


id: 58b1e742fc9c5de4cc144baab1a606f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12847
content:
"The Southern Ocean is disproportionately important in global climate and ecological systems, being the major connection linking the \r\nAtlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans in the global circulation. The horizontal circulation in the circumpolar Southern Ocean is comprised \r\nof an eastward-flowing mean current concentrated in a series of sinuous, braided jets exhibiting strong meandering variability and \r\nshedding small-scale transient eddies (Figure CB7.1). The mean flow circumnavigates Antarctica as the world's largest ocean current, \r\nthe Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), transporting approximately 173.3 +- 10.7 x 106\r\n m3 s-1 (Donohue et al., 2016) of water \r\neastward in a geostrophic balance set up by the contrasting properties of waters around Antarctica and those inside the subtropical \r\ngyres to the north of ACC. This contrast is maintained by a combination of strong westerly winds and ocean heat loss south of the ACC. "


id: f09a0c2b17a7f0db804857303972465c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39703
content:
"The Southern Ocean is the key region globally for the upwelling of interior ocean waters to the surface, enabling waters that were last \r\nventilated in the pre-industrial era to interact with the industrial-era atmosphere and the cryosphere. New water masses are produced \r\nthat sink back into the ocean interior. Such export of both extremely cold and dense Antarctic Bottom Water and the lighter mode and \r\nintermediate waters (Figure CB7.1) represents important pathways for surface properties to be sequestered from the atmosphere for \r\ndecades to millennia. This upwelling and sinking constitutes a two-limbed overturning circulation, by which much of the global deep \r\nocean is renewed. "


id: 67a1f6347befde6eb6fca815a9da0f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15498
content:
"The Southern Ocean overturning circulation plays a strong role in mediating climate change via the transfer of heat and carbon \r\n(including that of anthropogenic origin) with the atmosphere (Sections  3.2.1.2;  5.2.2.2); it also has an impact on sea ice \r\nextent and concentration, with implications for climate via albedo (Section  3.2.1.1). It acts to oxygenate the ocean interior "


id: c4578b9e9a4cabf2fec12616984eb8b9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31840
content:
"Surface waters\r\nin southern part of \r\nSouthern Ocean \r\nhave freshened \r\nand cooled since \r\n1980s (---)\r\n{3.2.1.2; 5.2.2.2}"


id: 7708a08a175b7f37979e7ce2b4cb67f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18143
content:
"Antarctic bottom \r\nwater has become \r\nless voluminous in \r\nSouthern Ocean \r\nand globally since \r\n1980s (--)\r\n{3.2.1.2; 5.2.2.2}"


id: 4fbd1c4887e15aa11612bb784cb8b144
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11321
content:
"and  sequesters nutrients that ultimately end up supporting a  significant fraction of primary production in the rest of the world\r\nocean (Section 5.2.2.2). The upwelling waters in the overturning bring heat to the Antarctic shelf seas, with consequences for ice \r\nshelves, marine-terminating glaciers and the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) (Section 3.3.1). The lower limb of this overturning \r\ncirculation supplies Antarctic Bottom Water that forms the abyssal layer of much of the world ocean (Section 3.2.1.2; 5.2.2.2)."


id: ffdf691a400dc86988b8ced57e82a8b1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42411
content:
"It is challenging to measure the Southern Ocean overturning directly, and misinterpretation of Waugh et al. (2013) led to AR5 \r\nerroneously reporting the upper cell to have slowed (AR5 WGI, Section  3.6.4). However, additional indirect estimates since AR5 \r\nprovide support for the increase in the upper ocean overturning proposed by Waugh et al. (2013). Waugh (2014) and Ting and Holzer \r\n(2017) suggest that over the 1990s-2000s water mass ages changed in a manner consistent with an increase in upwelling and \r\noverturning. However, inverse analyses suggest that such overturning experiences significant inter-decadal variability in response "


id: 30c7cca8ad800b13dd3982bfc7d18915
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5841
content:
"to wind forcing, with reductions in 2000-2010 relative to 1990-2000 (DeVries et al., 2017). This variability, combined with \r\nthe indirect nature of observational estimates, means that there is low confidence in assessments of long-term changes in upper \r\ncell overturning."


id: e00eb2fe14985ccd22cb3bcbdc4b4173
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36665
content:
"Available evidence indicates that the volume of Antarctic Bottom Water in the global ocean has decreased (Purkey and Johnson, 2013; \r\nDesbruyeres et al., 2017) (medium confidence), thinning at a rate of 8.1 m yr-1 since the 1950s (Azaneu et al., 2013); recently updated \r\nanalyses confirm this trend to present day (Figure 5.4). This suggests that the production and export of this water mass has probably \r\nslowed, though direct observational evidence is difficult to obtain. The large-scale impacts of Antarctic Bottom Water changes include \r\na potential modulation to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (e.g., Patara and Boning, 2014; see also \r\nSection 5.2.2.2.1)."


id: 3e8cbe063f17885f293cba6aa100ee54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8190
content:
"Projections of future trends in the Southern Ocean are dominated by the potential for a continued strengthening of the westerly winds \r\n(Bracegirdle et al., 2013), as well as a combination of warming and increased freshwater input from both increased net precipitation \r\nand changes in sea ice export (Downes and Hogg, 2013). Dynamical considerations and numerical simulations indicate that, if further \r\nincreases in the westerly winds are sustained, then it is very likely that the eddy field will continue to grow in intensity (Morrison and \r\nHogg, 2013; Munday et al., 2013), with potential consequences for the upper-ocean overturning circulation and transport of tracers \r\n(Abernathey and Ferreira, 2015) (including heat, carbon, oxygen and nutrients), and likely that the mean position and strength of the \r\nACC will remain only weakly sensitive to winds."


id: 959b010ce4bad9d35569bd2ac27acd4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23519
content:
"is quite large (Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018) and the model sensitivity \r\nis too low in most CMIP5 models (Rosenblum and Eisenman, 2017). \r\nEmerging evidence suggests, however, that internal variability, \r\nincluding links between the Arctic and lower latitude, strongly \r\ninfluences the ability of models to simulate observed reductions in \r\nArctic sea ice extent (Swart et al., 2015b; Ding et al., 2018)."


id: 387abdd6c900761fd4765d2e8c414ece
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7151
content:
"The multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from CMIP5 \r\nmodels identify declines in total Arctic sea ice extent and thickness \r\n(Sections  3.2.1.1.1;  3.2.1.1.2; Figure  3.3) which agree with \r\nobservations (Massonnet et al., 2012; Stroeve et al., 2012a; Stroeve \r\net al., 2014a; Stroeve and Notz, 2015). There is a range in the ability \r\nof individual models to simulate observed sea ice thickness spatial \r\npatterns and sea ice drift rates (Jahn et al., 2012; Stroeve et al., \r\n2014a; Tandon et al., 2018). Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent scale \r\nlinearly with both global temperatures and cumulative CO2 emissions \r\nin simulations and observations (Notz and Stroeve, 2016), although \r\naerosols influenced historical sea ice trends (Gagne et al., 2017). The \r\nuncertainty in sea ice sensitivity (ice extent loss per unit of warming) "


id: 3ae4977595f34f96dd5f2e5c2d3c2929
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7557
content:
"CMIP5 models project continued declines in Arctic sea ice through \r\nthe end of the century (Figure 3.3) (Notz and Stroeve, 2016) (high \r\nconfidence). There is a large spread in the timing of when the Arctic \r\nmay become ice free in the summer, and for how long during the \r\nseason (Massonnet et al., 2012; Stroeve et al., 2012a; Overland and \r\nWang, 2013) as a result of natural climate variability (Notz, 2015; \r\nSwart et al., 2015b; Screen and Deser, 2019), scenario uncertainty \r\n(Stroeve et al., 2012a; Liu et al., 2013), and model uncertainties \r\nrelated to sea ice dynamics (Rampal et al., 2011; Tandon et al., 2018) "


id: 5aedad6158fb006ab78765528087a236
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13249
content:
"model sensitivity to warming (Rosenblum and Eisenman, 2017) are \r\nalso important sources of uncertainty. During the historical period, \r\nregional trends of Antarctic sea ice are not captured by the models, \r\nparticularly the decrease in the Bellingshausen Sea and the expansion \r\nin the Ross Sea (Hobbs et al., 2015). There is a very wide spread of \r\nmodel responses in the Weddell Sea (Hobbs et al., 2015; Ivanova \r\net al., 2016), a region with complex ocean-sea ice interactions that \r\nmany models do not replicate (de Lavergne et al., 2014)."


id: 6ebf8afc22cae419efe55eec62ce85f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16751
content:
"CMIP5 models show a  wide range of mean states and trends in \r\nAntarctic sea ice (Turner et al., 2013; Shu et al., 2015). The ensemble \r\nmean across multiple models show a  decrease in total Antarctic \r\nsea ice extent during the satellite era, in contrast to the lack of \r\nany observed trend (Figure 3.3; Section 3.2.1.1.1). Interannual sea \r\nice variability in the models is larger than observations (Zunz et al., \r\n2013), which may mask disparity between models and observations. \r\nInternal variability (Polvani and Smith, 2013; Zunz et al., 2013), and "


id: 15687559f846470f1178919fca2d3625
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 981
content:
"Arctic polynyas (areas of open water surrounded by sea ice) are important because they ventilate the Arctic Ocean. The polynyas induce \r\nbottom reaching convection on shallow shelves (Damm et al., 2018) because the warm and exposed ocean surface creates very high \r\nheat fluxes and new sea ice formation during winter, releasing brine and creating dense water (Barber et al., 2012). On the shallow \r\nSiberian shelves, the ocean surface waters are dominated by river runoff which is rich with sediments (Damm et al., 2018), which end \r\nup both in the dense bottom water and in new sea ice (Bauch et al., 2012; Janout et al., 2015). This process maintains the Arctic Ocean \r\nhalocline (Bauch et al., 2011), which insulates the sea ice cover from the heat of the underlying Atlantic-derived waters."


id: 3f3bb43ff5e3a7bd2f506290dfb38100
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8315
content:
"The Antarctic continent is surrounded by coastal polynyas, which form from the combined effects of winds and landfast ice in the lee of \r\ncoastal features that protrude into the westward coastal current (Nihashi and Ohshima, 2015; Tamura et al., 2016). Intense ice growth \r\nwithin these polynyas contributes to the production of Antarctic Bottom Water, the densest and most voluminous water mass in the \r\nglobal ocean (Jacobs, 2004; Nicholls et al., 2008; Orsi and Wiederwohl, 2009; Ohshima et al., 2013). Sea ice production is greatest in \r\nRoss and Weddell sea polynyas and around East Antarctica (Drucker et al., 2011; Nihashi and Ohshima, 2015; Tamura et al., 2016)\r\n(high confidence)."


id: 88dced886161d5106a7452deb5675bdb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21245
content:
"The productivity associated with these polynyas is a critical food source for some of the most abundant top predators in Antarctic \r\nwaters, including penguins, albatross and seals (Raymond et al., 2014; Malpress et al., 2017) (Section  3.2.3.2.4). However, only \r\na fraction of the carbon fixed by phytoplankton in coastal polynyas is consumed by upper trophic levels. The rest sinks to the seafloor \r\nwhere it is re-mineralised or sequestered (Shadwick et al., 2017), or is advected off the shelf (Lee et al., 2017b). Given the high amount \r\nof residual macronutrients in polynya surface waters, there is evidence that future changes in ice shelf melt rates could increase water \r\ncolumn productivity (Gerringa et al., 2015; Rickard and Behrens, 2016; Kaufman et al., 2017), influencing Antarctic coastal ecosystems \r\nand increasing the ability of continental shelf waters to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide (Arrigo and van Dijken, 2015)."


id: 5e4e4972fa238bfb8cd4995b720003e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13883
content:
"In some CMIP5 models, phases of Weddell polynya activity appear for decades or centuries at a time, and then cease for a similar \r\nperiod (Reintges et al., 2017). The observational era is not sufficiently long to rule out this behaviour. Models indicate that under \r\nanthropogenic climate change, surface freshening caused by increased precipitation reduces the occurrence of the Weddell polynya \r\n(de Lavergne et al., 2014). There are systematic biases in modelled ocean stratification resulting in low confidence in future Weddell \r\nPolynya projections (Reintges et al., 2017)."


id: 1c2296d8a86c4b90d69b5ff39e90bf0f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2135
content:
"Consistent results for lower Atlantic Water layer warming were found \r\nby Koenigk and Brodeau (2014) for RCP2.5 (0.5oC), RCP4.5 (1.0oC) \r\nand RCP8.5 (2.0oC)."


id: 934e260dac66034bc93ae0209c8e08eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23119
content:
"Consistent with the projected sea ice decline, there is high confidence \r\nthat the Arctic Ocean will warm significantly towards the end of this \r\ncentury at the surface and in the deeper layers. Most CMIP5 models \r\ncapture the seasonal changes in surface heat and freshwater fluxes \r\nfor the present day climate, and show that the excess summer solar \r\nheating is used to melt sea ice, in a  positive ice albedo feedback \r\n(Ding et al., 2016). Using RCP8.5, Vavrus et al. (2012) found that the \r\nAtlantic layer is projected to warm by 2.5oC at around 400 m depth \r\nat the end of the century, but only by 0.5oC in the surface mixed layer. "


id: e7a49c4623c77a55d7a92fb75d001a3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38060
content:
"Poleward ocean heat transport contributes to Arctic Ocean warming \r\n(medium confidence). Comparing 20 CMIP5 simulations for RCP8.5, \r\nNummelin et al. (2017) found a 2oC-6oC range in Arctic amplification \r\nof surface air temperature north of 70oN, consistent with increased \r\nocean heat transport. Comparing 26 different CMIP5 simulations for \r\nRCP4.5, Burgard and Notz (2017) found that ocean heat transport \r\nchanges explain the Arctic Ocean multi-model mean warming, but "


id: 839053a595641e6664a31d7172aa423c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20287
content:
"Projections of changes in Southern Ocean circulation are discussed in \r\nCross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3."


id: a64643d90ff68cc3e0092f314ca25d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26470
content:
"that differences between models are compensated by changes in \r\nsurface fluxes. Increased ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea \r\nbeyond 2020 appears as a  probable mechanism with continued \r\nwarming (Koenigk and Brodeau, 2014; Arthun et al., 2019). Based \r\non four CMIP5 models, the Barents Sea is projected to become \r\nice-free during winter beyond 2050 under RCP8.5 (Onarheim and \r\nArthun, 2017), to which the main response is an increased ocean-to\u0002atmosphere heat flux and related surface warming (Smedsrud et al., \r\n2013). The ocean heat transport increases in all Arctic gateways, but \r\nis dominated by the Barents Sea, and when winter sea ice disappears \r\nhere the heat loss cannot increase further and the excess ocean heat \r\ncontinues into the Arctic Basin (Koenigk and Brodeau, 2014). "


id: e9420f457df0b67489d3635efd95832a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38398
content:
"The Arctic and Southern Ocean have a  systemic vulnerability to \r\naragonite undersaturation (Orr et al., 2005). For the RCP8.5 scenario, \r\nthe entire Arctic and Southern Ocean surface waters will very likely\r\nbe typified by year-around conditions corrosive for aragonite minerals \r\nfor 2090-2100 (Figure 3.4) (Hauri et al., 2015; Sasse et al., 2015), \r\nwhilst under RCP2.6 the extent of undersaturated waters are reduced \r\nmarkedly. At a basin/circumpolar scale, there is high confidence in \r\nthese projections due to our robust understanding of the driving \r\nmechanisms. However, there is medium confidence for the response \r\nof specific locations, due to the need for improved resolution of the \r\nlocal circulation, interactions with sea ice, and other processes that \r\nmodulate the rate of acidification."


id: f25d543fa6d2a46bf5d81a9e94a56869
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40035
content:
"The surface mixed layer of the Arctic Ocean is expected to freshen \r\nin future because an intensified hydrological cycle will increase river \r\nrunoff (Haine et al., 2015) (medium confidence). The related increase \r\nin stratification has the potential to contribute to the warming of the \r\ndeep Atlantic Water layer, as upward vertical mixing will be reduced \r\n(Nummelin et al., 2016). There are, however, biases in salinity of ~1 \r\nacross the Arctic Basin for the present day climate (Ilicak et al., 2016) \r\nin forced global ice-ocean models with configurations comparable to \r\nCMIP5, suggesting limited predictive skill for the Arctic freshwater cycle."


id: b294a1b2d630506cd855fc71d3c38c63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28658
content:
"Under RCP8.5, the rate of CO2 uptake by the Southern Ocean \r\nis projected to increase from the contemporary  0.91 Pg C  yr-1 \r\nto  2.38 (1.65-2.55) Pg C  yr-1 by 2100, but the growth in uptake \r\nrate will slow and likely stop around 2070 +- 10 corresponding to \r\ncumulative CO2 emissions of 1600 Gt C (Kessler and Tjiputra, 2016; "


id: 70a5fb630c7813289e0b58027c0b0317
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17077
content:
"acidification (Section 3.2.2.3) are all expected to impact the future \r\nproduction and distribution of several marine fish and invertebrates \r\n(high confidence). "


id: aa63273bf49bc03680916d6988de68eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27202
content:
"Wang et al., 2016b). This halt in the increase in the uptake rate of CO2\r\nis linked to the combined feedbacks from well-understood reductions \r\nin buffering capacity and warming, as well as the increased upwelling \r\nrate of carbon-rich Circumpolar Deep Water (Hauck and Volker, 2015) \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3). Although there is high agreement\r\namongst models, contemporary biases in the fluxes of CO2 in CMIP5 \r\nmodels in the Southern Ocean (Mongwe et al., 2018) suggest medium \r\nconfidence levels for these projections."


id: 860a0bff4353f462a7621c46f061949b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20726
content:
"Ocean acidification (Section  3.2.2.3) will affect several key Arctic \r\nspecies (medium confidence). The effects of current and projected \r\nlevels of acidification have been examined for a broad suite of species \r\ngroups (bivalves, cephalopods, echinoderms, crustaceans, corals \r\nand fishes) and these studies reveal species-specific differences in \r\nsensitivity, as well as differences in the scope for, and energetic cost \r\nof, adaptation (Luckman et al., 2014; Howes et al., 2015; Falkenberg \r\net al., 2018). "


id: 230380812038b0f796309d14938f2eab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3357
content:
"Climate change has, and is projected to continue to have, significant \r\nimplications for Arctic marine ecosystems, with consequences at \r\ndifferent trophic levels both in the pelagic, benthic, and sympagic \r\n(sea ice related) realms (Figure 3.5). Specifically, climate change is \r\nprojected to alter the distribution and properties of Arctic marine \r\nhabitats with associated implications for species composition, \r\nproduction and ecosystem structure and function (Frainer et al., \r\n2017; Kaartvedt and Titelman, 2018; Moore et al., 2018). The rate \r\nand severity of ecosystem impacts will be spatially heterogeneous \r\nand dependent on future emission scenarios."


id: 53fa80c6de9bc65be81db112b6489739
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12046
content:
"In the few Arctic regions where data is sufficient to assess trends in \r\nbiodiversity, the ecosystem level responses appear to be products \r\nof multiple interacting physical, chemical and biological processes \r\n(Frederiksen, 2017) (medium confidence). Climate change impacts \r\non vertical fluxes and stratification (Sections 3.2.1.2.3, 3.2.2.2) will \r\ncontribute to changes in bentho-pelagic-sympagic coupling. For \r\ninstance, projected climate driven changes in ocean properties and \r\nhydrography (Section 3.2.2.2) and the abundance of pelagic grazers \r\n(Box 3.4) could alter the export of organic matter to the sea floor with \r\nassociated impacts on the benthos in some Arctic shelf ecosystems \r\n(Moore and Stabeno, 2015; Stasko et al., 2018) (low confidence). \r\nProjected future reductions in summer sea ice (Section  3.2.1.1), \r\nincreased stratification in summer, shifting currents and fronts \r\nand increased ocean temperatures (Section  3.2.2.2) and ocean "


id: 6c6bc71e5240d71232ed7c3d99bea3b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16368
content:
"The reduction in sea ice area and thickness in the Arctic Ocean \r\nappears to be indirectly impacting rates of NPP through increased \r\nexposure of the surface ocean to atmospheric forcing (medium \r\nconfidence) and these indirect impacts will possibly increase in the \r\nfuture (low confidence). Greater wind stress has been shown to \r\nincrease upwelling of nutrients at the shelf break both over ice-free \r\nwaters (Williams and Carmack, 2015) and a partial ice cover (Schulze \r\nand Pickart, 2012), leading to more new production (Williams and \r\nCarmack, 2015). At the same time, enhanced vertical stratification "


id: a3d9f1a30640d8f463c3689fc25023bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26021
content:
"that sea ice loss will increase primary production and that will \r\nprimarily be consumed pelagically by zooplankton grazers such as \r\nCalanus hyperboreus; increasing their abundances in the central \r\nArctic (Kvile et al., 2018). Feng et al. (2018) concluded that C. glacialis\r\nshould continue to benefit from a  warmer Arctic Ocean. On the \r\nother hand, in the transition zone between Arctic and Atlantic water \r\nmasses, C. glacialis may face increasing competition from the more \r\nboreal C. finmarchicus (Dalpadado et al., 2016). Renaud et al. (2018) \r\nfound the lipid content of Calanus spp. was related to size and not \r\nspecies. This suggests that climate driven shifts in dominant Calanus\r\nspecies may, because of overlap in size spectrum and contrary to \r\nearlier assumptions, not negatively impact their consumers in the \r\nBarents Sea."


id: 53493ae8e40bd51f5aa6fec09671ed4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11925
content:
"(Section  3.2.1.2.2, SM3.2.2) and decreased upwelling of nutrients \r\ninto surface waters (Capotondi et al., 2012; Nummelin et al., 2016) \r\nmay reduce Arctic NPP in the future, especially in the central basin \r\n(Ardyna et al., 2017). It could also impact phytoplankton community \r\ncomposition and size structure, with small-celled phytoplankton, \r\nwhich require less nutrients, becoming more dominant as nutrient \r\nconcentrations in surface waters decline (Yun et al., 2015). "


id: 16a4788c914f5be67849386532b1437d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1196
content:
"In addition to its impact on phytoplankton bloom dynamics, the \r\ndecline in the proportion of multi-year sea ice and proliferation of \r\na thinner first year sea ice cover may favour growth of microalgae \r\nwithin the ice due to increased light availability (medium confidence). \r\nRecent studies suggest that the contribution of sea ice algae to total \r\nArctic NPP is higher now than values measured previously (Song et al., \r\n2016), accounting for nearly 10% of total NPP (ice plus water) and \r\nas much as 60% in places like the central Arctic (Fernandez-Mendez \r\net al., 2015)."


id: 421c668b09a1f775a50481af1dbf7ed6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8830
content:
"The effects of ocean acidification on Arctic zooplankton and \r\npteropods (small pelagic molluscs) have been examined for only \r\na few species and these studies reveal that the severity of effects \r\nis dependent on emission scenarios and the species sensitivity and \r\nadaptive capacity. The copepod  C. glacialis exhibits stage-specific \r\nsensitivities to ocean acidification with some stages being relatively \r\ninsensitive to decreases in pH and other stages exhibiting substantial \r\nreductions in scope for growth (Bailey et al., 2017; Thor et al., 2018). \r\nAlthough there is strong evidence that pteropods are sensitive to \r\nthe effects of ocean acidification (Manno et al., 2017) recent studies \r\nindicate they may exhibit some ability to adapt (Peck et al., 2016; \r\nPeck et al., 2018). However, the metabolic costs of adaptation may \r\nbe constraining, especially during periods of low food availability \r\n(Lischka and Riebesell, 2016)."


id: 34802e14a8b77a64d3074d7f5cd8a66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6473
content:
"Ongoing changes in NPP will impact the biogeochemistry and \r\necology of large parts of the Arctic Ocean (high confidence). In areas \r\nof enhanced nutrient availability and greater NPP, dominance by \r\nlarger-celled microalgae increases vertical export efficiency from the \r\nsurface downwards in both ice covered (Boetius et al., 2013; Lalande \r\net al., 2014; Makela et al., 2017) and open ocean (Le Moigne et al., \r\n2015) areas. However, because exported biomass production may be \r\nincreasing in some areas but declining in others, the net impact may \r\nbe small (Randelhoff and Guthrie, 2016) (Sections 3.2.3.1.2, 5.3.6, \r\nSM3.2.6). Phytoplankton may have the capacity to compensate for \r\nocean acidification under a  range of temperatures and pH values \r\n(Hoppe et al., 2018)."


id: ed1170f2a8013468f6336200e901f25e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39079
content:
"Increased water temperatures (Section 3.2.1) and shifts in the spatial \r\npattern and timing of the ice algal and phytoplankton blooms, have \r\nimpacted the phenology, magnitude and duration of zooplankton \r\nproduction with associated changes in the zooplankton community \r\ncomposition (medium confidence). Negative effects of reductions in \r\nice algae on zooplankton may be partially offset by predicted increases \r\nin water column phytoplankton production in the Bering Sea (Wang \r\net al., 2015). Changes in sea ice coverage and thickness may alter the \r\nphenology, abundance and distribution of zooplankton in the future. \r\nProjected changes will initially have the most pronounced impact \r\non sympagic amphipods, but will subsequently affect food web \r\nfunctioning and carbon dynamics of the pelagic system (Kohlbach \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 729159e376b6bfc13e5d289d47a9ca5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17399
content:
"There is evidence that earlier spring sea ice retreat and later autumn \r\nsea ice formation (Section  3.2.1.1) are changing the phenology \r\nof primary production with cascading effects on Arctic benthic \r\ncommunity biodiversity and production (Link et al., 2013) (medium \r\nconfidence). In the Barents Sea, evidence suggests that factors \r\ndirectly related to climate change (sea ice dynamics, ocean mixing, \r\nbottom-water temperature change, ocean acidification, river/glacier \r\nfreshwater discharge; Sections  3.2.1.1,  3.2.1.2) are impacting the \r\nbenthic species composition (Birchenough et al., 2015). Other human \r\ninfluenced activities, such as commercial bottom trawling and the \r\nintroduction of non-native species are also regarded as major drivers \r\nof observed and expected changes in benthic community structure \r\n(Johannesen et al., 2017), and may interact with climate impacts."


id: da7e16c3e0aa95ca49fda2a119860cd4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35744
content:
"Rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom \r\ncommunities of two Arctic fjords in the Svalbard Archipelago during \r\n1980-2010 have been documented and linked to gradually increasing \r\nseawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover (Kortsch et al., \r\n2012; Kortsch et al., 2015). Also, there are indications of declining \r\nbenthic biomass in the northern Bering Sea (Grebmeier and Cooper, \r\n2016) and southern Chukchi Sea (Grebmeier et al., 2015). It is unclear \r\nwhether these rapid ecosystem changes will be tipping points for \r\nlocal ecosystems (Chapter  6, Table  6.1; Wassmann and Lenton, \r\n2012). However, biomass of kelps have increased considerably \r\nin the intertidal to shallow subtidal in Arctic regions over the last \r\ntwo decades, connected to reduced physical impact by ice scouring "


id: 258ae29733acc5d756276b75ae35529b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3790
content:
"At the more southern boundaries of the Arctic such as the southeastern \r\nBering Sea, warm conditions have led to reduced production of large \r\ncopepods and euphausiids (medium confidence) (Sigler et al., 2017; \r\nKimmel et al., 2018). On more northern shelves, the increased open \r\nwater period has led to increases in large copepods over a 60 year \r\nperiod within the Chukchi Sea (Ershova et al., 2015) and in recent \r\nyears also the Beaufort Sea (Smoot and Hopcroft, 2017), while in the \r\nCentral Basins zooplankton biomass in general has increased (Hunt \r\net al., 2014; Rutzen and Hopcroft, 2018) (medium confidence)."


id: 2d747a67fb8f7a8d40af8f98b97af47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5285
content:
"There are inconsistent findings concerning the future development \r\nof copepods in the Arctic. Coupled biophysical model results suggest "


id: 1d8e1e829e159a185283214fc047d876
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2383
content:
"and increased light availability as a  consequence of warming and \r\nconcomitant fast-ice retreat (Kortsch et al., 2012; Paar et al., 2016) \r\n(medium confidence) (see Section  5.3.3 and SM3.2.6 for further \r\ninformation on kelp)."


id: 82cf1592f06fef40cef11a63debc2391
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20141
content:
"Since AR5, additional evidence shows climate-induced physical and \r\nbiogeochemical changes are impacting, and will continue to impact, \r\nthe distribution and production of marine fish (medium confidence). \r\nChanges in the spatial distribution and production of Arctic fish are \r\nbest documented for ecologically and commercially important stocks \r\nin the Bering and Barents Seas (Box 3.4; Figure 3.5), while data is \r\nseverely limited in other Arctic shelf regions and the Central Arctic \r\nOcean (CAO). "


id: dc736ce29ec1c3f5febb1ff637bc2357
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36050
content:
"The growth, early survival and production of commercially important \r\ncrab stocks in the Bering Sea are influenced by time-varying exposure \r\nto multiple interacting drivers including bottom temperature, larval \r\nadvection, predation, competition and fishing (Burgos et al., 2013; \r\nLong et al., 2015; Ryer et al., 2016). In Newfoundland and Labrador \r\nwaters and on the western Scotian Shelf, snow crab (Chionoecetes \r\nopilio) productivity has declined (Mullowney et al., 2014; Zisserson \r\nand Cook, 2017). Contrary to this, snow crabs have expanded their \r\ndistribution in the Barents Sea and commercial harvesting increased \r\n(Hansen, 2016; Lorentzen et al., 2018) (high confidence). "


id: b39d38cddf86c4519187bf186f5db802
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28841
content:
"Higher temperature and changes in the quality and distribution \r\nof prey is already affecting marine fish (Wassmann et al., 2015; \r\nDalpadado et al., 2016; Hunt et al., 2016; Section  3.2.3.1) (high \r\nconfidence for detection, medium confidence for attribution). In \r\nthe northern Barents Sea, Atlantic Sector, higher temperatures \r\n(Section 3.2.1.2) have expanded suitable feeding areas for boreal/\r\nsubarctic species (Box 3.4) and has contributed to increased Atlantic \r\ncod (Gadus morhua) production (Kjesbu et al., 2014). In contrast, \r\nArctic species like polar cod (Boreogadus saida) are expected to be \r\naffected negatively by a shortened ice covered season and reduced \r\nsea ice extent through loss of spawning habitat and shelter, increased \r\npredatory pressure, reduced prey availability (Christiansen, 2017), "


id: 1ab0360c559da3b1cdc3b9537f74f96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1897
content:
"Bering sea crabs exhibit species-specific sensitivities to reduced pH \r\n(Long et al., 2017; Swiney et al., 2017; Long et al., 2019). However, \r\ncurrent pH levels do not appear to have negatively impacted crab \r\nproduction in the Bering or Barents Seas (Mathis et al., 2015; Punt \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 299108f7bf44074044aaa81510df2349
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4540
content:
"Figure 3.5 | Schematic summary of key drivers that are causing, or are projected to cause, direct effects on Arctic marine ecosystems (Section 3.2.1.2). Effects presented here \r\nare described in the main text (Sections 3.2.3.1; 3.2.4.1.1; 3.2.4.2; 3.2.4.3) with associated confidence levels and citations. For mixed effects, no confidence level is given \r\n(see main text for details on how multiple drivers cause interacting positive and negative effects). Projected effects are conceptual representations based on high emission \r\nscenarios (Section 3.2.1.2). The cross-sectional view of the Arctic ecosystem shows the association of key functional groups (marine mammals, birds, fish, zooplankton, \r\nphytoplankton and benthic assemblages) with Arctic marine habitats. Species depicted in the fishing net are not a comprehensive depiction of all target species."


id: 761c8110b8d22044776e8d750ab90396
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18006
content:
"and impaired growth and reproductive success (Nahrgang et al., \r\n2014). These changes may cause structural changes in food webs, \r\nwith large piscivorous and semipelagic boreal fish species replacing \r\nsmall bodied Arctic benthivores (Box  3.4; Fossheim et al., 2015; \r\nFrainer et al., 2017)."


id: 437f4af569274e1bc3a88bd293b0775c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9099
content:
"Environmental alterations caused by global warming are resulting in \r\nphenological, behavioural, physiological, and distributional changes \r\nin Arctic marine mammal and seabird populations (Gilg et al., 2012; \r\nLaidre et al., 2015; Gall et al., 2017) (high confidence). These changes \r\ninclude altered ecological interactions as well as direct responses to \r\nhabitat degradation induced especially via loss of sea ice. Population \r\nresponses to warming have not all been linear, some have been \r\nparticularly strong and abrupt due to environmental regime shifts, as \r\nseen in black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). A steep population \r\ndecline in kittiwake colonies distributed throughout their breeding \r\nrange coincided with an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in \r\nthe 1990s, while their population dynamics did not seem to be affected \r\nduring periods of more gradual warming (Descamps et al., 2017)."


id: 28a7cd2b4899420f3d80a3fbc4e64ec3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4365
content:
"Time series on responses of anadromous fish (including salmon) in \r\nthe high Arctic are limited, although these stocks will also be exposed \r\nto a wide range of future stressors (Reist et al., 2016). There is some \r\nevidence that environmental variability influences the production of \r\nanadromous species such as Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), brown \r\ntrout (Salmo trutta), and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) through its \r\ninfluence on growth and winter survival (Jensen et al., 2018)."


id: 2434f311f52afc11b237dd2ec86de596
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3559
content:
"In some species, shifts in distribution in response to changes in \r\nsuitable habitat have been associated with increased mortality. \r\nIncreased mortality rates of walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) calves have \r\nbeen observed during on-shore stampedes of unusually large herds, \r\nbecause Pacific walrus females are no longer able to haul out on ice \r\nover the shelf in summer due to the retraction of the southern ice \r\nedge into the deep Arctic Ocean (Kovacs et al., 2016). Shifts in the \r\ntemporal and spatial distribution and availability of suitable areas \r\nof sea ice for ice-breeding seals have occurred (Bajzak et al., 2011; \r\nOigard et al., 2013) with increases in strandings and pup mortality \r\nin years with little ice (Johnston et al., 2012c; Soulen et al., 2013; \r\nStenson and Hammill, 2014). "


id: 6db2533cb2dcb12f391a4695335ce729
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16556
content:
"Climate impacts that reduce the availability of prey resources can \r\nnegatively impact marine mammals (Asselin et al., 2011; Oigard \r\net al., 2014; Choy et al., 2017) (very high confidence). Sea ice changes \r\nhave increased the foraging effort of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) in \r\nthe marginal ice zone north of Svalbard (Hamilton et al., 2015), also \r\ncausing diet shifts (Lowther et al., 2017). Ringed seals in Svalbard \r\nare using terrestrial haul out sites during summer for the first time \r\nin observed history, following major declines in sea ice (Lydersen \r\net al., 2017), an example of an adaptive behavioural response to \r\nextreme habitat changes. Sea ice related changes in the export of \r\nproduction to the benthos (Section 3.3.3.1) and associated changes \r\nin the benthic community (Section  3.4.1.1.2) may impact marine "


id: 9925fde0f8c344cf248cbd6681dbd520
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24156
content:
"mammals dependent on benthic prey (e.g., walruses and gray whales, \r\nEschrichtius robustus) (Brower et al., 2017; Udevitz et al., 2017; Szpak \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 43f9c6555d5fed859f9731dddff6d448
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9194
content:
"key ocean and sea ice habitat characteristics (temperature, sea ice \r\ncover, iceberg scour, mixed layer depth, aragonite undersaturation; \r\nSections  3.2.1,  3.2.2) will be important in determining future \r\nstates of Southern Ocean ecosystems (Constable et al., 2014; Gutt \r\net al., 2015) (medium confidence). However, there is a need to better \r\ncharacterise the nature and importance of indirect responses to \r\nphysical change using models and observations. Important advances \r\nhave also been made since AR5 in (i) identifying key variables to \r\ndetect and attribute change in Southern Ocean ecosystems, as part \r\nof long-term circumpolar modelling designs (Constable et al., 2016), \r\nand (ii) refining methods for using sea ice projections from global \r\nclimate models in ecological studies and ecosystem models for the \r\nSouthern Ocean (Cavanagh et al., 2017)."


id: 242eb98c72a3098dc340de199d6bd908
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3548
content:
"Several studies from different parts of the Arctic show evidence \r\nthat changing temperatures impact seabird diets (Dorresteijn et al., \r\n2012; Divoky et al., 2015; Vihtakari et al., 2018), reproductive success \r\nand body condition (Gaston et al., 2012; Provencher et al., 2012; \r\nGaston and Elliott, 2014) (high confidence). Recent studies also \r\nshow that changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice dynamics \r\nhave impacts on the distribution and abundance of seabird prey \r\nwith cascading impacts on seabird community composition (Gall \r\net al., 2017), nutritional stress and decreased reproductive output \r\n(Dorresteijn et al., 2012; Divoky et al.; Kokubun et al., 2018) and \r\nsurvival (Renner et al., 2016; Hunt et al., 2018)."


id: 76a2e01b3d13a3cb112c3c9d89599670
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18091
content:
"Recent studies on the ecological effects of acidification in coastal \r\nwaters near the Antarctic continent indicate a detrimental effect of \r\nacidification on primary production and changes to the structure \r\nand function of microbial communities (Hancock et al., 2017; \r\nDeppeler et al., 2018; Westwood et al., 2018) (medium confidence). \r\nTrimborn et al. (2017) report that Southern Ocean diatoms are more \r\nsensitive to ocean acidification and changes in irradiance than the \r\nprymnesiophyte Phaeocystis antarctica, which may have implications \r\nfor biogeochemical cycling because diatoms and prymnesiophytes \r\nare generally considered key drivers of these cycles. Both laboratory \r\nmanipulations and in situ experiments indicate that sea ice algae are \r\ntolerant to acidification (McMinn, 2017) (medium confidence). Model \r\nprojections of trends in primary production in the Southern Ocean \r\ndue to climate change from Leung et al. (2015) are summarised in \r\nTable 3.2."


id: 7b33d7c9707c80309f25b5b26f400bf8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18872
content:
"Table 3.2 |  Model projections of trends due to climate change driven alteration of phytoplankton properties under RCP8.5 from 2006 to 2100 across three zones of the \r\nSouthern Ocean, from Leung et al. (2015). There is low confidence in predicted zonal changes in phytoplankton biomass due to low confidence regarding future changes in iron \r\nsupply in the Southern Ocean (Hutchins and Boyd, 2016). Acidification was not reported as an important driver in this modelling experiment."


id: 938fc16b255336a4e906d1e930c9c72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23166
content:
"the South Atlantic and the West Antarctic Peninsula. Comparison of \r\nthe mesozooplankton community in the southwestern Atlantic Sector \r\nbetween 1926-1938 and 1996-2013 showed no evidence of change \r\ndespite surface ocean warming (Tarling et al., 2018). These results \r\nsuggest that predictions of distributional shifts based on temperature \r\nniches may not reflect the actual levels of thermal resilience of \r\nkey taxa. Sub-decadal cycles of macrozooplankton community \r\ncomposition adjacent to the West Antarctic Peninsula are strongly \r\nlinked to climate indices, with evidence of increasing abundance for \r\nsome species over the period from 1993 to 2013 (Steinberg et al., \r\n2015). Pteropods are vulnerable to the effects of acidification, and \r\nnew evidence indicates that eggs released at high CO2 concentrations \r\nlack resilience to ocean acidification in the Scotia Sea region (Manno \r\net al., 2016) (medium confidence)."


id: 7e8ba30643e2a0b67f91778314c4f1ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19416
content:
"Many Antarctic fish have a  narrow thermal tolerance as a  result \r\nof physiological adaptations to cold water (Portner et al., 2014; \r\nMintenbeck, 2017), which makes them vulnerable to the effects \r\nof increasing temperatures (Mueller et al., 2012; Beers and \r\nJayasundara, 2015). Increasing water temperatures may displace "


id: 3d29a32b920fd26092a0555fc693a94a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7942
content:
"icefish (family Channichthyidae) in marginal habitats (e.g., shallow \r\nregions around subantarctic islands) as they lack haemoglobin and \r\nare unable to adjust blood parameters to an increasing oxygen \r\ndemand (Mintenbeck et al., 2012) (low confidence). Future warming \r\nmay also reduce the planktonic duration and increase egg and \r\nlarval mortality for fish species, which is predicted to affect dispersal \r\npatterns, with implications for population connectivity and the ability \r\nof fish species to adapt to ongoing environmental change (Young \r\net al., 2018). The Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica) is \r\nan important prey species in some regions of the Southern Ocean, \r\nand has an ice-dependent life cycle (Mintenbeck et al., 2012; Vacchi \r\net al., 2012). Documented declines in the abundance of this species in \r\nsome parts of the West Antarctic Peninsula may have consequences \r\nfor associated food webs (Parker et al., 2015; Mintenbeck and Torres, \r\n2017) (low confidence)."


id: a2055a0438e1fb1735577d32e6fe21aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25739
content:
"success, mortality, fecundity and body condition), life history traits, \r\nmorphological, physiological and behavioural characteristics of \r\ntop predators in the Southern Ocean, as well as their patterns of \r\nactivity (migration, distribution, foraging and reproduction) are also \r\nchanging as a  result of climate change (Braithwaite et al., 2015a; \r\nWhitehead et al., 2015; Seyboth et al., 2016; Hinke et al., 2017b) \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 3561374387049fe7d6cd0c78cc6ba517
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6637
content:
"Evidence for climate change impacts on Antarctic flying birds \r\nindicates that contraction of sea ice (seasonally and in specific \r\nregions), increases in sea surface temperatures, extreme events \r\n(snowstorms) and wind regime shifts can reduce breeding success \r\nand population growth rates in some species: southern fulmars \r\n(Fulmarus glacialoides), Antarctic petrels (Thalassoica antarctica) \r\nand black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophris) \r\n(Descamps et al., 2015; Jenouvrier et al., 2015; Pardo et al., 2017) \r\n(low confidence). Poleward population shifts with increased intensity \r\nand frequency of westerly winds affect functional traits, demographic \r\nrates, foraging range, rates of travel and flight speeds of flying birds \r\n(Weimerskirch et al., 2012; Jenouvrier et al., 2018) but also increase \r\noverlap with fisheries activities thus increasing the risk of bycatch \r\nand the need for mitigation measures (Kruger et al., 2018) (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 1cbad6e49d3afb154a85d7566b36c213
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2240
content:
"leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) and Weddell seals (Leptonychotes \r\nweddellii)) as a  reference point for understanding climate change \r\nimpacts on these species (Southwell et al., 2012; Bester et al., 2017), \r\nalthough some regional population estimates for pack ice seals \r\nare available (Gurarie et al., 2017 and references therein). Analysis \r\nof long-term data suggests a genetic component to adaptation to \r\nclimate change (low confidence) in Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus \r\ngazella, Forcada and Hoffman (2014)) and pigmy blue whales \r\n(Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda, Attard et al. (2015))."


id: b423cad210e6a20725f35d857f0a7d80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28931
content:
"In summary, advances in knowledge regarding the impacts of climate \r\nchange on Antarctic marine ecosystems since AR5 are consistent \r\nwith the impacts described in Larsen et al. (2014) (also summarised \r\nin Figure  3.6). These advances include further descriptions of \r\nlocal-scale, climate-related influences (sea ice and stratification) "


id: afc6fb8da6a95bf9bc209501b0d80430
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28162
content:
"Figure 3.6 |  Schematic summary of key drivers that are causing or are projected to cause direct effects on Southern Ocean marine ecosystems. Effects presented here \r\nare described in the main text (Sections 3.2.3.2, 3.3.3.4), with associated confidence levels and citations. Projected changes (indicated by an asterisk) are for high \r\nemissions scenarios. The cross-sectional view of the Southern Ocean ecosystem shows the association of key functional groups (marine mammals, birds, fish, zooplankton, \r\nphytoplankton and benthic assemblages) with Southern Ocean habitats. The configuration of the Southern Ocean foodweb is described in SM3.2.6."


id: 185632a608fef4a0f3cca84e4c99df3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1485
content:
"(Lam et al., 2016; Eide, 2017; Haug et al., 2017; Peck and Pinnegar, \r\n2018) (Section 3.2.3.1.3, Box 3.4) (medium confidence)."


id: e961f753d1620a75368e1b827c21b95a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38418
content:
"However, recent studies in the Bering Sea suggest that future fish \r\nproduction will also depend on how climate change and ocean \r\nacidification will alter the quality, quantity and availability of suitable \r\nprey; the thermal stress and metabolic demands of resident fish; and \r\nspecies interactions (Section  3.2.3.1.3), suggesting that the future \r\nof commercial fisheries in Arctic regions is uncertain (Holsman \r\net al., 2018). It is also uncertain whether future autumn and winter \r\nocean conditions will be conducive to the establishment of resident \r\noverwintering spawning populations that are large enough to \r\nsupport sustainable commercial fishing operations at higher latitude \r\nArctic shelf regions (Section 3.2.3.1) (medium confidence)."


id: 83e3a9a50b06b89227dac6ca2fd903a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20350
content:
"Projecting the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries is \r\ninextricably intertwined with response scenarios regarding risk \r\ntolerance in future management of marine resources, advancements \r\nin fish capture technology, and markets drivers (e.g., local and global \r\ndemand, emerging product lines, competition, processing efficiencies \r\nand energy costs) (Groeneveld et al., 2018). Seasonal and interannual \r\nvariability in ocean conditions influences product quality and costs \r\nof fish capture (Haynie and Pfeiffer, 2012) (Table 3.4). Further, past \r\nexperience suggests that barriers to diversification may limit the \r\nportfolio of viable target fisheries available to small-scale fisheries \r\n(Ward et al., 2017) (low confidence)."


id: 41f32eb7cfe71c8e0bf35157a1917982
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8794
content:
"Arctic fisheries are important economically and societally. Large \r\ncommercial fisheries exist off the coasts of Greenland and in the \r\nBarents and Bering Seas (Holsman et al., 2018; Peck and Pinnegar, \r\n2018). First-wholesale value for commercial harvest of all species in \r\n2017 in the Eastern Bering Sea was  2.68  billion USD, and for the \r\nBarents Sea around 1 billion USD to Norwegian fishers alone. The \r\ntarget species for these commercial fisheries include gadoids, flatfish, \r\nherring, red fish (Sebastes sp.), salmonids, and capelin. Fisheries in \r\nother Arctic regions are relatively small-scale, locally operated, and \r\ntarget a limited number of species (Reist, 2018). Still, these fisheries \r\nare of considerable cultural, economic and subsistence importance to \r\nlocal communities (Section 3.5.2.1)."


id: 64721ce1eb23b9f0d377890fc999646e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14946
content:
"Climate change will affect the spatial distribution and productivity of \r\nsome commercially important marine fish and shellfish under most \r\nRCPs (Section  3.2.3.1) with associated impacts on the distribution \r\nand economic viability of commercial fisheries (high confidence). \r\nPast performance suggests that high latitude fisheries have been \r\nresilient to changing environmental and market drivers. For example, \r\nthe Norwegian cod fishery has exported dried cod over an unbroken \r\nperiod of more than a thousand years (Barrett et al., 2011), reflecting \r\nthe resilience of the northern Norwegian cod fisheries to historic \r\nclimate variability (Eide, 2017). Also, model projections indicate that \r\nexpansions in suitable habitat for subarctic species and increased \r\nproduction of planktonic prey due to increasing temperatures and \r\nice retreat, will continue to support commercially important fisheries "


id: 752ce26a54a5ab8fe766782b5cd1ecb2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17853
content:
"(Section 3.2.3.2.1) indicates that the impacts of climate change will \r\nbe most pronounced in the areas that are currently most important \r\nfor the Antarctic krill fishery: the Scotia Sea and the northern tip of \r\nthe AP. Major future changes in the krill fishery itself are expected to \r\nbe driven by global issues external to the Southern Ocean, including \r\nconservation decision making and socioeconomic drivers."


id: 45dee3057939c8d95d364922aea4be59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9512
content:
"There is limited understanding of the consequences of climate change \r\nfor Southern Ocean finfish fisheries. Lack of recovery of mackerel \r\nicefish (Champsocephalus gunnari) after cessation of fishing in 1995 \r\nhas been related to anomalous water temperatures (~2oC increase \r\nrelated to a  strong El Nino) in the subantarctic Indian Ocean and \r\nto availability of krill prey in the Atlantic region (Mintenbeck, 2017) \r\n(low confidence). Differences in temperature tolerance of Patagonian \r\nand Antarctic toothfish described in Section  3.2.3.2.3 may have \r\nimplications for future fisheries of these two species."


id: cf4fd35be3dcae05e4ba8935b5d15d09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33822
content:
"The Arctic is reliant on marine transportation for the import of \r\nfood, fuel and other goods. At the same time, the global appetite \r\nfor maritime trade and commerce through the Arctic (including \r\ncommunity re-supply, mining and resource development, tourism, \r\nfisheries, cargo, research, and military and icebreaking, etc.) is \r\nincreasing as the region becomes more accessible because of reduced \r\nsea ice cover. There are four potential Arctic international trade routes: \r\nthe Northwest Passage, the Northern Sea Route, the Arctic Bridge and \r\nthe Transpolar Sea Route. All of these routes offer significant trade \r\nbenefits because they provide substantial distance savings compared \r\nto traditional routes via the Suez or Panama Canals."


id: 86c15f82482494cbd6161fd1e31c3c3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20872
content:
"Canada's Northwest Passage (southern route), which only saw \r\noccasional cruise ship transits in the early 2000s is now reliably \r\naccessible during the summer cruising season, and as a result has \r\nexperienced a doubling and quadrupling of cruise and pleasure craft \r\nactivity over the past decade (Johnston et al., 2017; Dawson et al., \r\n2018). There is high confidence that demand for Arctic cruise tourism \r\nwill continue to grow over the coming decade (Johnston et al., 2017). \r\nThe anticipated implications of future climate change have become \r\na  driver for polar tourism. A  niche market known as 'last chance \r\ntourism' has emerged whereby tourists explicitly seek to experience \r\nvanishing landscapes or seascapes, and natural and social heritage in \r\nthe Arctic and Antarctic, before they disappear (Lemelin et al., 2010; \r\nLamers et al., 2013)."


id: 8c936e05cf8f4439cd7c6bf88c383de8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21918
content:
"Increases in polar cruise tourism pose risks and opportunities related \r\nto development, education, safety (including search and rescue), \r\nsecurity within communities and environmental sustainability \r\n(Johnston et al., 2012a; Johnston et al., 2012b; Stewart et al., \r\n2013; Dawson et al., 2014; Lasserre and Tetu, 2015; Stewart et al., "


id: ca11da0fbbb1d96f68b63d62efd99650
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32880
content:
"It is projected that shipping activity will continue to rise across the \r\nArctic as northern routes become increasingly accessible (Stephenson \r\net al., 2011; Stephenson et al., 2013; Barnhart et al., 2015; Melia et al., "


id: 999960c8101916bb8ce002601b610bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24258
content:
"2016), although mitigating economic and operational factors remain \r\nuncertain and could influence future traffic volume (Zhang et al., \r\n2016). The Northern Sea Route is expected to be more viable than \r\nother routes because of infrastructure already in place (Milakovic et al., \r\n2018); favourable summer ice conditions in recent years have reduced \r\ntransit times (Aksenov et al., 2017). In comparison, the Northwest \r\nPassage and Arctic Bridge presently have limited port and marine \r\ntransportation infrastructure, incomplete soundings and hydrographic \r\ncharting, challenging sea ice conditions and limited search and rescue \r\ncapacity; these compound the risks from shipping activity (Stephenson \r\net al., 2013; Johnston et al., 2017; Andrews et al., 2018). "


id: 8dec797c89bf9c9823d43f1c09b09bb2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22163
content:
"The predominant shipborne activities in Antarctica are fishing, \r\nlogistic support to land-based stations, and marine research vessels \r\noperating for both non-governmental and governmental sectors. \r\nUncertainty in future Antarctic sea ice conditions (Section  3.2.2.1) \r\npose challenges to considering potential impacts on these activities \r\n(Chown, 2017)."


id: 66f7ac335f5349edd7dca8fd9c443a36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15381
content:
"Changes in ice sheet mass have been derived repeatedly over the \r\nsatellite era using complementary methods based on time series of \r\nsatellite altimetry to measure volume change, ice-flux measurements \r\ncombined with modelled surface mass balance (SMB) to calculate \r\nmass inputs and outputs, and satellite gravimetry to measure regional \r\nmass change. Ice sheet changes over earlier periods have also been \r\nreconstructed from firn/ice core and geological evidence (SM3.3.1)."


id: b728ee8f1e5ce1993bd577990538c104
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29435
content:
"It is virtually certain that the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and West \r\nAntarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) combined have cumulatively lost mass since \r\nwidespread measurements began in 1992, and that the rate of loss has \r\nincreased since around the year 2006 and continued post-AR5 (Martin\u0002Espanol et al., 2016; Zwally et al., 2017; Bamber et al., 2018; Gardner \r\net al., 2018; The IMBIE Team, 2018; Rignot et al., 2019), extending \r\nand reinforcing previous findings (IPCC, 2013) (Figure  3.7, Table  3.3, \r\nSM3.3.1.1). From medium evidence, there is high agreement in the sign \r\nand medium agreement in the magnitude of both WAIS and AP mass \r\nchange between the complementary satellite methods (Memin et al., \r\n2015; The IMBIE Team, 2018)."


id: ee24a73d02881a9cfa30fd54e4af6c76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39269
content:
"Limited palaeo ice sheet evidence suggests that this area has \r\npreviously lost substantial mass in previous interglacials (medium \r\nconfidence) (Aitken et al., 2016; Wilson etal.,2018)."


id: 8c9fb456b700119d6530a0873f3db54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21927
content:
"WAIS mass loss and recent increases in loss were concentrated in the \r\nAmundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) (high confidence) with increases \r\nparticularly in the late 2000s (Mouginot et al., 2014), accounting \r\nfor most of the -112 +-  10 Gt yr-1 WAIS loss from 2003 to 2013 \r\n(Martin-Espanol et al., 2016). The ice sheet margins of nearby Getz \r\nIce Shelf also lost mass rapidly  (-67 +-  27 Gt yr-1, 2008-2015) \r\n(Gardner et al., 2018). This region also experienced losses during \r\nprevious warm periods (Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3)."


id: 56cbbdb3bd7611cb99fe17742042e64d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12521
content:
"Overall, 2012-2016 Antarctic Ice Sheet mass losses were extremely \r\nlikely greater than those from 2002 to 2011 and likely greater than \r\nfrom 1992 to 2001, and it is extremely likely that the negative 2012-\r\n2016 Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance was dominated by losses from \r\nWAIS (Table 3.3)."


id: 1647398f9dd759462162dc162c98d022
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1138
content:
"On the AP, the Bellingshausen Sea ice sheet margin shifted from close \r\nto mass balance in the 2000s to rapid loss from 2009 (-56 +- 8 Gt yr-1\r\nfrom 2010 to 2014) (high confidence) (Helm et al., 2014; McMillan \r\net al., 2014b; Wouters et al., 2015; Hogg et al., 2017). This shift \r\naccompanied ongoing mass loss (high confidence) from the smaller \r\nnortheastern AP glaciers that fed the former Prince Gustav, Larsen \r\nA and B ice shelves, though now at a lower rate than immediately \r\nfollowing shelf collapse in 1995 and 2002 (Seehaus et al., 2015; \r\nWuite et al., 2015; Rott et al., 2018). Of 860 marine-terminating AP \r\nglaciers, 90% retreated from their 1940s positions (Cook et al., 2014), \r\nestablished in the early to mid-Holocene (O Cofaigh et al., 2014) \r\n(medium confidence). Early 21st century combined AP glacier (Fieber \r\net al., 2018) and ice sheet loss was around -30 Gt yr-1 (Table 3.3)."


id: ce1200f70a732cde4db137eb37a871f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33584
content:
"The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS, covering 85% of the Antarctic \r\nIce Sheet (AIS)) has remained close to balance, with large interannual \r\nvariability and no clear mass trend over the satellite record (medium \r\nconfidence) (Table  3.3, Figure  3.7, SM3.3.1.2), and relatively \r\nlarge observation uncertainties (SM3.3.1) (Velicogna et al., 2014; \r\nMartin-Espanol et al., 2017; Bamber et al., 2018). SMB trends are \r\nparticularly ambiguous, leading to disagreement between one \r\naltimetry and one flux-based estimate of 136 +- 43 Gt yr-1 (spanning \r\n1992-2008) (Zwally et al., 2017), and -41 +- 8 Gt yr-1 (1979-2017) \r\n(Rignot et al., 2019), respectively. Both differ from the multi-method \r\naverages reported here (Table 3.3)."


id: 906970a34279d25cf9107a8a55e5f2f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22608
content:
"Reduction or loss of ice shelf buttressing has dominated Antarctic Ice \r\nSheet dynamic thinning (high confidence). Ice shelves buttress 90% \r\nof Antarctic Ice Sheet outflow (Depoorter et al., 2013; Rignot et al., \r\n2014; Furst et al., 2016; Reese et al., 2018), and ice shelf thinning \r\nincreased in WAIS by 70% in the decade to 2012, averaged  8% \r\nthickness loss from 1994 to 2012 in the Amundsen Sea Embayment \r\n(Paolo et al., 2015), and explains the post-2009 onset of rapid dynamic \r\nthinning on the southern-AP Bellingshausen Sea coast (Wouters \r\net al., 2015; Hogg et al., 2017; Martin-Espanol et al., 2017) (Figure \r\nSM3.8). Grounding line retreat, an indicator of thinning, has been \r\nobserved with high confidence (Rignot et al., 2014; Christie et al., "


id: 74048ed6854b023e54333d0578faa2a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17651
content:
"EAIS mass gains on the Siple Coast and Dronning Maud Land \r\n(e.g.,  63 +-  6 Gt yr-1 from 2003 to 2013 (Velicogna et al., 2014)) \r\ncontrast with Wilkes Land losses e.g., from -17 +- 4 Gt yr-1 from the \r\nTotten Glacier area, 2003-2013 (Velicogna et al., 2014) that drain \r\na large area of deeply-grounded EAIS with potential for multi-metre \r\nsea level contributions (Zwally et al., 2017; Rignot et al., 2019). "


id: da2e4ca640a5a665b14a1e62d9777ddc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35680
content:
"2016; Hogg et al., 2017; Konrad et al., 2018; Roberts et al., 2018). From \r\n2010 to 2016, 22%, 3% and 10% of grounding lines in WAIS, EAIS and \r\nthe AP respectively retreated at rates faster than 25 m yr-1 (the average \r\npace since the Last Glacial Maximum; Konrad et al., 2018), with highest \r\nrates along the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea coasts, and around \r\nTotten Glacier, Wilkes Land, EAIS (Konrad et al., 2018), where dynamic \r\nthinning has occurred at least since 1979 (Roberts et al., 2018; Rignot \r\net al., 2019). Ice shelf collapse has driven dynamic thinning in the \r\nnorthern AP over recent decades (high confidence) (Seehaus et al., \r\n2015; Wuite et al., 2015; Friedl et al., 2018; Rott et al., 2018)."


id: a0d6de4a3026a2f210c255adbc73ec07
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25515
content:
"It is extremely likely that the 2002-2011 and 2012-2016 ice losses \r\nwere greater than in the 1992-2001 period (Bamber et al., 2018) \r\n(Table 3.3, Figure 3.7, SM3.3.1.3). Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance \r\nis characterised by large interannual variability (e.g., van den Broeke \r\net al., 2017) but from 2005 to 2016, Greenland Ice Sheet was the \r\nlargest terrestrial contributor to global sea level rise (WCRP, 2018)."


id: f5b66153673d202ca747ace3e7099616
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40594
content:
"A geodetic reconstruction of past ice sheet elevations indicates \r\na Greenland Ice Sheet mass change of -75.1 +- 29.4 Gt yr-1 from 1900 to \r\n1983, -73.8 +- 40.5 Gt yr-1 from 1983 to 2003, and -186.4 +- 18.9 Gt yr-1\r\nfrom 2003 to 2010, with the losses consistently concentrated along the \r\nnorthwest and southeast coasts, and more locally in the southwest and \r\non the large west coast Jakobshavn Glacier, though intensifying and \r\nspreading to the remainder of the coastal ice sheet in the latest period \r\n(Kjeldsen et al., 2015). Palaeo evidence also suggests that the GIS has \r\ncontributed substantially to sea level rise during past warm intervals \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3)."


id: 11024eefbc9ffddf9fd6c81d25caf1a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 186
content:
"ASE ice shelf basal melting, grounding line retreat and dynamic \r\nthinning have varied with ocean forcing (medium confidence) (Dutrieux \r\net al., 2014; Paolo et al., 2015; Christianson et al., 2016; Jenkins et al., \r\n2018) but this variability is superimposed on sustained mass losses \r\ncompatible with the onset of Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) for \r\nseveral major glaciers (medium confidence) (Favier et al., 2014; Joughin \r\net al., 2014; Mouginot et al., 2014; Rignot et al., 2014; Christianson \r\net al., 2016). Whether unstable WAIS retreat has begun or is imminent \r\nremains a critical uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3)."


id: 64a7969ad85d1b3380f10bdf19a710a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14992
content:
"Ongoing GIS mass loss over recent years has resulted from \r\na combined increase in dynamic thinning and a decrease in SMB. Of \r\nthese, reduced SMB due to an increase in surface melting and runoff \r\nrecently came to dominate (high confidence) (Andersen et al., 2015; \r\nFettweis et al., 2017; van den Broeke et al., 2017; King et al., 2018), \r\naccounting for 42% of losses for 2000-2005, 64% for 2005-2009 \r\nand 68% for 2009-2012 (Enderlin et al., 2014) (Figure 3.7). "


id: 10f4ad560c4397133b97a289a1a6f2cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 173
content:
"Mass gains due to increased snowfall have somewhat offset \r\ndynamic-thinning losses (high confidence). On the AP, snowfall began \r\nto increase in the 1930s, accelerated in the 1990s (Thomas et al., \r\n2015; Goodwin et al., 2016), and now offsets sea-level rise by 6.2 \r\n+- 1.7 mm per century (Medley and Thomas, 2018). EAIS and WAIS \r\nsnowfall increases offset 20th century sea-level rise by 7.7 +- 4.0 mm \r\nand 2.8 +- 1.7 mm respectively (Medley and Thomas, 2018) (medium \r\nconfidence). AIS snowfall increased by 4  +- 1  then 14 +-  1 Gt per \r\ndecade over the 19th and 20th centuries, of which EAIS contributed \r\n10% (Thomas et al., 2017b). Longer records suggest either an AIS \r\nsnowfall decrease over the last 1000 years (Thomas et al., 2017a) \r\nor a  statistically negligible change over the last 800 years (low \r\nconfidence) (Frezzotti et al., 2013)."


id: b9da1a656387bfb2f94b1ca8bc7e0c30
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29915
content:
"The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) experienced a marked shift to strongly \r\nnegative mass balance between the early 1990s and mid-2000s \r\n(very high confidence) (Shepherd et al., 2012; Schrama et al., 2014; \r\nVelicogna et al., 2014; van den Broeke et al., 2016; Bamber et al., \r\n2018; King et al., 2018; Sandberg Sorensen et al., 2018; WCRP, 2018). "


id: 9a671d62adfba8983670f8f59a867e04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24407
content:
"Depoorter et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013; Dutrieux et al., 2014; Paolo \r\net al., 2015; Wouters et al., 2015; Christianson et al., 2016; Cook \r\net al., 2016; Jenkins et al., 2018; Roberts et al., 2018). Changes in \r\nwinds have driven this shoaling by affecting continental shelf edge \r\nundercurrents (Walker et al., 2013; Dutrieux et al., 2014; Kimura et al., \r\n2017) and overturning in coastal polynyas (St-Laurent et al., 2015; \r\nWebber et al., 2017) (medium confidence). Winds over the Amundsen \r\nSea are highly variable, however, with complex interactions between \r\nSAM, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal \r\nOscillation, and the Amundsen Sea Low (Uotila et al., 2013; Li et al., \r\n2014; Turner et al., 2016) (SM3.1.3). "


id: 253d3c32946037886fba7d383ae038c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3743
content:
"Through their effects on Antarctic coastal ocean circulation, ENSO or \r\nother tropical-ocean variability may have triggered changes to Pine \r\nIsland Glacier in the 1940s (Smith et al., 2017c) and again in the \r\n1970s and 1990s (Jenkins et al., 2018), and recent ENSO variability \r\nis correlated with recent changes in ice shelf thickness (Paolo et al., \r\n2018) (medium confidence). Such coupling between wind variability, \r\nocean upwelling, ice shelf melt, buttressing and glacier flow rate has \r\nalso been observed in EAIS, at Totten Glacier, Wilkes Land (Greene \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 9db9824608dfc80220f1d63c5f92581
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24980
content:
"Around Greenland, an anomalous inflow of subtropical water driven \r\nby wind changes, multi-decadal natural ocean variability (Andresen \r\net al., 2012), and a  long-term increase in the North Atlantic's \r\nupper ocean heat content since the 1950s (Cheng et al., 2017), all \r\ncontributed to a warming of the subpolar North Atlantic (Hakkinen \r\net al., 2013) (medium confidence). Water temperatures near the \r\ngrounding zone of GIS outlet glaciers are critically important to their \r\ncalving rate (O'Leary and Christoffersen, 2013) (medium confidence), \r\nand warm waters have been observed interacting with major GIS \r\noutlet glaciers (high confidence) (e.g., Holland et al., 2008; Straneo \r\net al., 2017)."


id: 5cef3898c4b7d7108c91d4fe2251bd50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13616
content:
"The processes behind warm-water incursions in coastal Greenland \r\nthat force glacier retreat remain unclear, however (Straneo et al., \r\n2013; Xu et al., 2013b; Bendtsen et al., 2015; Murray et al., 2015; \r\nCowton et al., 2016; Miles et al., 2016), and there is low confidence in \r\nunderstanding coastal GIS glacier response to ocean forcing because \r\nsubmarine melt rates, calving rates (Rignot et al., 2010; Todd and \r\nChristoffersen, 2014; Benn et al., 2017), bed and fjord geometry and \r\nthe roles of ice melange and subglacial discharge (Enderlin et al., \r\n2013; Gladish et al., 2015; Slater et al., 2015; Morlighem et al., 2016; \r\nRathmann et al., 2017) are poorly understood, and extrapolation \r\nfrom a small sample of glaciers is impractical (Moon et al., 2012; Carr \r\net al., 2013; Straneo et al., 2016; Cowton et al., 2018). "


id: a71f39613ac6c09c8812079c53aa5df0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26619
content:
"The reduction of ice shelf buttressing that has dominated AIS mass \r\nloss (Section  3.3.1.2) has been driven primarily by increases in \r\nsub-ice shelf melting (Khazendar et al., 2013; Pollard et al., 2015; \r\nCook et al., 2016; Rintoul et al., 2016; Walker and Gardner, 2017; \r\nAdusumilli et al., 2018; Dow et al., 2018a; Minchew et al., 2018) \r\n(high confidence). Shoaling of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep \r\nWater has controlled recent variability in melting in the Amundsen \r\nand Bellingshausen seas, Wilkes Land (Roberts et al., 2018) and the \r\nAP (medium confidence) (Jacobs et al., 2011; Pritchard et al., 2012; "


id: d8be37126b040df3767c4327ab7796f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35429
content:
"Snow accumulation and surface melt in Antarctica are influenced \r\nby the Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation (SM3.1.3), \r\nwhich has intensified and shifted poleward in austral summer from \r\n1950 to 2012 (Arblaster et al., 2014; Swart et al., 2015a) (medium \r\nconfidence). The austral summer SAM has been in its most positive \r\nextended state for the past 600 years (Abram et al., 2014; Datwyler \r\net al., 2017), and from 1979 to 2013 has contributed to intensified \r\natmospheric circulation and increasing and decreasing snowfall "


id: c290293fe3ab00891e9c1f99034fd5fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31517
content:
"in the western and eastern AP respectively (Marshall et al., 2017) \r\n(medium confidence). WAIS accumulation trends (Section  3.3.1.2) \r\nresulted from a  deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low over recent \r\ndecades (Raphael et al., 2016) (high confidence). "


id: 9ddc46608e56cff14876d8f92eeb2b73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25008
content:
"ice shelf collapses have evidence of a link to anthropogenic ozone and \r\ngreenhouse gas forcing via the SAM (e.g., Marshall, 2004; Shindell, \r\n2004; Arblaster and Meehl, 2006; Marshall et al., 2006; Abram et al., \r\n2014) and to anthropogenic Atlantic sea surface warming via the \r\nAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (e.g., Li et al., 2014). This warming \r\nwas highly unusual over the last 1000 years but not unprecedented, \r\nand along with subsequent cooling is within the bounds of the large \r\nnatural decadal-scale climate variability in this region (Mulvaney \r\net al., 2012; Turner et al., 2016). More broadly over the AP and \r\ncoastal WAIS where dynamic mass losses are concentrated, natural \r\nvariability in atmospheric and ocean forcing appear to dominate \r\nobserved mass balance (medium confidence) (Smith and Polvani, \r\n2017; Jenkins et al., 2018)."


id: 269a7aeefcfea143a9bc49ccacd5d210
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3954
content:
"During the 1990s, WAIS experienced record surface warmth relative to \r\nthe past 200 years, though similar conditions occurred for 1% of the \r\npreceding 2000 years (Steig et al., 2013), and WAIS surface melting \r\nremains limited. In contrast, AP surface melting has intensified since \r\nthe mid-20th century and the last three decades were unprecedented \r\nover 1000 years (Abram et al., 2013a). The northeast AP began \r\nwarming 600 years ago and past-century rates were unusual over \r\n2000 years (Mulvaney et al., 2012; Stenni et al., 2017). Increased \r\nfohn winds due to the more positive SAM (Cape et al., 2015) caused \r\nincreased surface melting on the Larsen ice shelves (Grosvenor \r\net al., 2014; Luckman et al., 2014; Elvidge et al., 2015) and after \r\n11,000 years intact, the 2002 melt-driven collapse of the Larsen B ice \r\nshelf followed strong warming between the mid-1950s and the late \r\n1990s (Domack et al., 2005) (medium confidence). "


id: db7c305d0fce8f7bc10bece9d94fa77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35892
content:
"Evidence exists for an anthropogenic role in the atmospheric circulation \r\n(NAO) changes that have driven GIS mass loss (Section  3.3.1.5.2) \r\n(medium confidence), although this awaits formal attribution testing \r\n(e.g., Easterling et al., 2016). Arctic amplification of anthropogenic \r\nwarming (e.g., Serreze et al., 2009) affects atmospheric circulation \r\n(Francis and Vavrus, 2015; Mann et al., 2017) and has reduced sea ice \r\nextent (Section 3.2.1.1.1), feeding back to exacerbate both warming \r\nand NAO changes (Screen and Simmonds, 2010) that impact GIS \r\nmass balance. Negative-NAO wind patterns increased GIS melt \r\nobserved in a 40-year runoff signal (Ahlstrom et al., 2017), and an \r\nincrease in melting beginning in the mid-1800s closely followed the \r\nonset of industrial era Arctic warming and emerged beyond the range \r\nof natural variability in the last few decades (Graeter et al., 2018; \r\nTrusel et al., 2018) (Section 3.3.1.4)."


id: 37ee5de54c4167aab3c99ba8eb1cb067
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7047
content:
"Section  4.2 assesses the sea level impacts from observed and \r\nprojected changes in ice sheets."


id: 48b19e63f799ef58436a1e6ab5d489ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10009
content:
"Chapter 3 assesses changes in polar glaciers in the Canadian and \r\nRussian Arctic, Svalbard, Greenland and Antarctica, independent of \r\nthe Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (Figure 3.8). Glaciers in all \r\nother regions including Alaska, Scandinavia and Iceland are assessed \r\nin Chapter 2. "


id: b7e7479b10d682e965ae671a4047540a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29573
content:
"Changes in the mass of Arctic glaciers for the 'present day' (2006-\r\n2015) are assessed using a  combination of satellite observations \r\nand direct measurements (Figure  3.8; Appendix  2.A, Table  1). \r\nDuring this period, glacier mass loss was largest in the periphery \r\nof Greenland  (-47 +-  16 Gt yr-1), followed by Arctic Canada \r\nNorth (-39 +- 8 Gt yr-1), Arctic Canada South (-33 +- 9 Gt yr-1), the Russian \r\nArctic (-15 +- 12 Gt yr-1) and Svalbard and Jan Mayen (-9 +- 5 Gt yr-1). \r\nWhen combined with the Arctic regions covered in Chapter 2 (Alaska, \r\nthe Yukon territory of Canada, Iceland and Scandinavia), Arctic \r\nglaciers as a whole lost mass at a rate of -213 +- 29 Gt yr-1, a sea \r\nlevel contribution of 0.59 +- 0.08 mm yr-1 (high confidence). Overall \r\nduring this period, Arctic glaciers caused a  similar amount of sea "


id: 26cb9a753380205704c4cbf39e9acd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3979
content:
"level rise to the GIS (Section 3.3.1.3), but their rate of mass loss per \r\nunit area was larger (Bolch et al., 2013). "


id: adae3a9828e34e5f353d88aaf367376b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27799
content:
"associated with glacier mass loss are also linked to enhanced GIS \r\nmelt (Section 3.3.1.4) and Arctic sea ice loss (Section 3.2.1.1), and \r\nexceed by a factor of two the interannual variability in daily mean \r\npressure (sea level and 500 hPa) of the Arctic region over the 1871-\r\n2014 period (Belleflamme et al., 2015) (Section 3.3.1.6)."


id: 5803fc174e3107b7abff93357975ecbb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12746
content:
"There is limited evidence (high agreement) that the current rate of \r\nglacier mass loss is larger than at any time during the past 4000 years \r\n(Fisher et al., 2012; Zdanowicz et al., 2012). Further back in time during \r\nthe early to mid- Holocene, pre-historic glacial deposits, ice core \r\nrecords, and numerical modelling evidence shows that many Arctic \r\nglaciers were at various stages similar to or smaller than present \r\n(Gilbert et al., 2017; Zekollari et al., 2017), experienced greater melt \r\nrates (Lecavalier et al., 2017), or may have disappeared altogether \r\n(Solomina et al., 2015) (medium confidence). This evidence, however,\r\ndoes not provide a complete assessment of the rates and magnitudes \r\nof past glacier mass loss."


id: c7c2abda60cf8b504cd59cd7e7fb38f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32449
content:
"Increased surface melt on Arctic glaciers has led to a positive feedback \r\nfrom lowered surface albedo, causing further melt (Box et al., 2012), \r\nand in Svalbard, mean glacier albedo has reduced between 1979 and \r\n2015 (Moller and Moller, 2017). Across the Arctic, increased surface \r\nmelt and subsequent ice-layer formation via refreezing within snow \r\nand firn also reduces the ability of glaciers to store meltwater, \r\nincreasing runoff (Zdanowicz et al., 2012; Gascon et al., 2013a; \r\nGascon et al., 2013b; Noel et al., 2017; Noel et al., 2018)."


id: 31b8baec79033d3a6fcb2265148633ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5993
content:
"Between the 1990s and 2017, tidewater glaciers have exhibited \r\nregional patterns in glacier dynamics; glaciers in Arctic Canada \r\nhave largely decelerated, while glaciers in Svalbard and the Russian \r\nArctic have accelerated (Van Wychen et al., 2016; Strozzi et al., \r\n2017). Annual retreat rates of tidewater glaciers in Svalbard and the \r\nRussian Arctic for 2000-2010, have increased by a factor 2 and 2.5 \r\nrespectively, between 1992 and 2000 (Carr et al., 2017). Acceleration \r\ndue to surging (an internal dynamic instability) of a few key glaciers "


id: 8fbe183d45657afad4b693ecd646acc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22497
content:
"Atmospheric circulation changes (Box et al., 2018) have led to \r\npan-Arctic variability in glacier mass balance (high confidence), \r\nincluding different rates of retreat between eastern and western \r\nglaciers in Greenland's periphery (Bjork et al., 2018), and a  high \r\nrate of surface melt in the Canadian Arctic (Gardner et al., 2013; \r\nVan Wychen et al., 2016; Millan et al., 2017) through persistently \r\nhigh summer air temperatures (Bezeau et al., 2014; McLeod and \r\nMote, 2016). Atmospheric circulation anomalies from 2007 to 2012 "


id: 9e1121a8cc36caf4f085b5d9ec20d47d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25045
content:
"has dominated dynamic ice discharge on time-scales of years to \r\ndecades (Van Wychen et al., 2014; Dunse et al., 2015). "


id: 2a79a194f4bdf886cd2bc46383bf65ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4700
content:
"Meridional Overturning Circulation. The timescales and likelihood \r\nof such effects are assessed separately in Chapter 6  (Section  6.7). \r\nFreshwater release also affects local circulation within fjords through \r\ntwo principle mechanisms; subglacial release from tidewater \r\nglaciers enhances buoyancy driven circulation, whereas runoff from \r\nland-terminating glaciers contributes to surface layer freshening and \r\nestuarine circulation (Straneo and Cenedese, 2015). There is limited \r\nevidence that freshening occurred between 2003 and 2015 in North \r\nEast Greenland fjords and coastal waters (Sejr et al., 2017)."


id: ac16f6852f22b5e7c644e9de57fbe41
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27514
content:
"The recent acceleration and surge behaviour of polythermal glaciers \r\nin Svalbard and the Russian Arctic is caused by destabilisation of the \r\nmarine termini due to increased surface melt, and changes in basal \r\ntemperature, lubrication and weakening of subglacial sediments (Dunse \r\net al., 2015; Sevestre et al., 2018; Willis et al., 2018) or terminus thinning \r\nand response to warmer ocean temperatures (McMillan et al., 2014a) \r\n(low confidence). Iceberg calving rates in Svalbard are linked to ocean \r\ntemperatures which control rates of submarine melt (Luckman et al., \r\n2015; Vallot et al., 2018) (medium confidence). Rapid disintegration of \r\nice shelves in the Canadian and Russian Arctic continues and has led to \r\nacceleration and thinning in tributary-glacier basins (high confidence) \r\n(Willis et al., 2015; Copland and Mueller, 2017)."


id: bb5460867f94aecd8453b0ff2eff560d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30175
content:
"For Antarctica, freshwater input to the ocean from the ice sheet is \r\ndivided approximately equally between melting of calved icebergs \r\nand of ice shelves in situ (Depoorter et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2014). \r\nThere is high confidence that the input of ice shelf meltwater has \r\nincreased in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas since the 1990s, \r\nbut low confidence in trends in other sectors (Paolo et al., 2015). "


id: 55353334836a103dbb286572c4a8ad3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12265
content:
"Projections of all glaciers, including those in polar regions, are \r\ncovered in Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2."


id: 563bd0edbc9d45886e118d7fe1566e1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12438
content:
"Chapter 4  assesses the sea level impacts from observed and \r\nprojected changes in ice sheets (Section  3.3.1) and polar glaciers \r\n(Section 3.3.2), including uncertainties related to marine ice sheets \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3)."


id: 50b2a378c63e3dd40f7813f5ed960a16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11471
content:
"Both polar ice sheets have the potential to release dissolved and \r\nsediment-bound nutrients and organic carbon directly to the surface \r\nocean via subglacial and surface meltwater, icebergs, melting of the \r\nbase of ice shelves (Shadwick et al., 2013; Wadham et al., 2013; \r\nHood et al., 2015; Herraiz-Borreguero et al., 2016; Raiswell et al., "


id: 943ffdf176acf49dd51f623928fba5e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23287
content:
"and the wider Southern Ocean (Gerringa et al., 2012; Shadwick et al., \r\n2013; Herraiz-Borreguero et al., 2016). Satellite observations and \r\nmodelling also indicate variable potential for icebergs to fertilise the \r\nSouthern Ocean beyond the coastal zone (Death et al., 2014; Duprat \r\net al., 2016; Wu and Hou, 2017)."


id: 4c9b69d9518901b014e239c15e21a06e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10744
content:
"2016; Yager et al., 2016; Hodson et al., 2017), in addition to indirectly \r\nstimulating nutrient input via upwelling associated with subglacial \r\nmeltwater plumes (Meire et al., 2016b; Cape et al., 2018; Hopwood \r\net al., 2018; Kanna et al., 2018) (Figure 3.9). These nutrient additions \r\nstimulate primary production in the surrounding ocean waters in \r\nsome regions (medium confidence) (Gerringa et al., 2012; Death et al., \r\n2014; Duprat et al., 2016; Arrigo et al., 2017b). There is also some \r\nevidence to support melting ice sheets as source of contaminants \r\n(AMAP, 2015)."


id: e91d80a3732830e53c4c2a240dce3899
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38365
content:
"Dissolved nutrient fluxes from ice sheets may be increasing \r\nduring high melt years (Hawkings et al., 2015). The dominant \r\nsediment-bound fraction, however, may not increase with rising melt \r\n(Hawkings et al., 2015). Thus, there is low confidence overall in the \r\nmagnitude of the response of direct nutrient fluxes from ice sheets \r\nto enhanced melting. "


id: 99c13fbe6d65c6847b23312e8dd0dee2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24276
content:
"In Greenland, direct measurements suggest that meltwater is \r\na significant source of bioavailable silica and iron (Bhatia et al., 2013; \r\nHawkings et al., 2014; Meire et al., 2016a; Hawkings et al., 2017) \r\nbut may be less important for the supply of bioavailable forms of \r\ndissolved nitrogen or phosphorous (Hawkings et al., 2016; Wadham \r\net al., 2016), which often limit the integrated primary production \r\nduring summer in fjords (Meire et al., 2016a; Hopwood et al., 2018). \r\nThe offshore export of iron, however, has been linked to primary \r\nproductivity in surface ocean waters in the Labrador Sea (Arrigo \r\net al., 2017b) (limited evidence, high agreement)."


id: 591c075112604d7d1c34e63317dc8012
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12921
content:
"Future predictions of nutrient cycling proximal to ice sheets is made \r\nmore challenging by the landward progression of marine-terminating \r\nglaciers and the collapse of ice shelves (Cook et al., 2016). This has \r\nthe potential to drive major shifts in nutrient supply to coastal waters \r\n(Figure 3.9). The erosion of newly exposed glacial sediments in front of \r\nretreating land-terminating glaciers (Monien et al., 2017) and changes \r\nin the diffuse nutrient fluxes from newly exposed glacial sediments \r\non the seafloor (Wehrmann et al., 2014) may amplify nutrient supply, \r\nwhilst other nutrient sources may be cut off (e.g., icebergs, upwelling \r\nof marine water; Meire et al., 2017) (low confidence)."


id: 2a728178ce61876c15fca4ec789fa8a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4694
content:
"Subglacial meltwater plumes from tidewater glaciers have emerged \r\nrecently as an important indirect source of nutrients to fjords, by \r\nentraining nutrient-replete seawater (Meire et al., 2016b; Meire \r\net al., 2017; Cape et al., 2018; Hopwood et al., 2018; Kanna et al., \r\n2018) (medium evidence, high agreement). There is medium evidence \r\nwith high agreement that these upwelled nutrient fluxes enhance \r\nprimary production in fjords over a distance of up to 100 km along \r\nthe trajectory of the outflowing plume (Juul-Pedersen et al., 2015; \r\nCape et al., 2018; Kanna et al., 2018)."


id: 6ecf0338edd8352288d033bce5f163a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16764
content:
"There is medium evidence with high agreement that long-term \r\ntidewater glacier retreat into shallower water or onto land, a plausible \r\nscenario for about 55% of the 243 distinct outlet glaciers in Greenland \r\n(Morlighem et al., 2017), will reduce or diminish upwelling a source \r\nof nutrients, thereby reducing summer productivity in Greenland fjord \r\necosystems (Meire et al., 2017; Hopwood et al., 2018)."


id: 7388b25e9fb5bca86e8614f94a2a12a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17583
content:
"Authors: Robert  M. DeConto (USA), Alexey Ekaykin (Russian Federation), Andrew Mackintosh (Australia), Roderik van de Wal \r\n(Netherlands), Jeremy Bassis (USA)"


id: 6a7fb4e578096c676e122f9a4264a157
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16021
content:
"Over the last century, glaciers were the main contributors to increasing ocean water mass (Section 4.2.1.2). However, most terrestrial \r\nfrozen water is stored in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and future changes in their dynamics and mass balance will cause sea \r\nlevel rise over the 21st century and beyond (Section 4.2.3)."


id: e402feb59e5bff0006f7451180411382
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37411
content:
"About a third of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is 'marine ice sheet', i.e., rests on bedrock below sea level (Figure 4.5), with most of the \r\nice sheet margin terminating directly in the ocean. These features make the overlying ice sheet vulnerable to dynamical instabilities \r\nwith the potential to cause rapid ice loss; so-called Marine Ice Sheet and Marine Ice Cliff instabilities, as discussed below."


id: 2743f76907aae08be7bbee28e235c0ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4076
content:
"In many places around the AIS margin, the seaward-flowing ice forms floating ice shelves (Figure CB8.1). Ice shelves in contact with \r\nbathymetric features on the sea floor or confined within embayments provide back stress (buttressing) that impedes the seaward \r\nflow of the upstream ice and thereby stabilises the ice sheet. The ice shelves are thus a key factor controlling AIS dynamics. Almost \r\nall Antarctic ice shelves provide substantial buttressing (Furst et al., 2016) but some are currently thinning at an increasing rate \r\n(Khazendar et al., 2016). Today, thinning and retreat of ice shelves is associated primarily with ocean driven basal melt that, in turn, \r\npromotes iceberg calving (Section 3.3.1.2)."


id: 3bddfbeee9133687d0d46e87b6d30bbe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7723
content:
"Accumulation and percolation of surface melt and rain water also impact ice shelves by lowering albedo, deepening surface crevasses, \r\nand causing flexural stresses that can lead to hydrofracturing and ice shelf collapse (Macayeal and Sergienko, 2013). In some cases \r\nsupraglacial (i.e., flowing on the glacier surface) rivers might diminish destabilising impact of surface melt by removing meltwater \r\nbefore it ponds on the ice shelf surface (Bell et al., 2017). In summary, both ocean forcing and surface melt affect ice shelf mechanical \r\nstability (high confidence), but the precise importance of the different mechanisms remains poorly understood and observed."


id: d0a1ece1eebb47a700b6125489c5ff59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34058
content:
"The future dynamic response of the AIS to warming will largely be determined by changes in ice shelves, because their thinning \r\nor collapse will reduce their buttressing capacity, leading to an acceleration of the grounded ice and to thinning of the ice margin. In \r\nturn, this thinning can initiate grounding line retreat (Konrad et al., 2018). If the grounding line is located on bedrock sloping downwards \r\ntoward the ice sheet interior (retrograde slope), initial retreat can trigger a positive feedback, due to non-linear response of the \r\nseaward ice flow to the grounding line thickness change. As a result, progressively more ice will flow into the ocean (Figure CB8.1a). "


id: 3873703cba1a97502dfc1e586517a4b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7142
content:
"This self-sustaining process is known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI). The onset and persistence of MISI is dependent on several \r\nfactors in addition to overall bed slope, including the details of the bed geometry and conditions, ice shelf pinning points, lateral shear \r\nfrom the walls, self-gravitation effects on local sea level and isostatic adjustment. Hence, long-term retreat on every retrograde sloped \r\nbed is not necessarily unstoppable (Gomez et al., 2015)."


id: 16ff4fe6b3993102cca868432fed4ebb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1266
content:
"The MISI process might be particularly important in West Antarctica, where most of the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock below sea \r\nlevel (Figure 4.5). Since AR5, there is growing observational and modelling evidence that accelerated retreat may be underway in \r\nseveral major Amundsen Sea outlets, including Thwaites, Pine Island, Smith, and Kohler glaciers (e.g., Rignot et al., 2014) supporting \r\nthe MISI hypothesis, although observed grounding line retreat on retrograde slope is not definitive proof that MISI isunderway."


id: ad185d1dd8b5b2fcd3d8c9408ea339b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27691
content:
"It has been shown recently (Barletta et al., 2018) that the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) experiences unexpectedly fast bedrock \r\nuplift (up to 41 mm yr-1, due to mantle viscosity much lower than the global average) as an adjustment to reduced ice mass loading, \r\nwhich could help stabilise grounding line retreat. "


id: 79b5a70ebccd72d2af42136532182f56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18615
content:
"One of the largest outlets of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), Totten glacier, has also been retreating and thinning in recent decades (Li \r\net al., 2015b). Totten's current behaviour suggests that East Antarctica could become a substantial contributor to future sea level rise, as it \r\nhas been in the previous warm periods (Aitken et al., 2016). It is not clear, however, if the changes observed recently are a linear response \r\nto increased ocean forcing (Section 3.3.1.2), or an indication that MISI has commenced (Roberts et al., 2018)."


id: b79d340f436de6227b61c9cfd3d07699
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29515
content:
"The disappearance of ice shelves may allow the formation of ice cliffs, which may be inherently unstable if they are tall enough \r\n(subaerial cliff height between 100 and 285 m) to generate stresses that exceed the strength of the ice (Parizek et al., 2019). This ice \r\ncliff failure can lead to ice sheet retreat via a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI; Figure CB8.1b), that has been hypothesised \r\nto cause partial collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) within a few centuries (Pollard et al., 2015; DeConto and Pollard, 2016)."


id: fa77ef15bdb7b08f519a0d80af86dcf7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41432
content:
"Limited evidence is available to confirm the importance of MICI. In Antarctica, marine-terminating ice margins with the grounding \r\nlines thick enough to produce unstable ice cliffs are currently buttressed by ice shelves, with a possible exception of Crane glacier \r\non the Antarctic Peninsula (Section 4.2.3.1.2). "


id: 1c7bb080cf0545fe624726182da23a29
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2197
content:
"Overall, there is low agreement on the exact MICI mechanism and limited evidence of its occurrence in the present or the past. \r\nThus the potential of MICI to impact the future sea level remains very uncertain (Edwards et al., 2019)."


id: adc62591382c8ec65719380a5c47dfa6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27816
content:
"Limited evidence from geological records and ice sheet modelling suggests that parts of AIS experienced rapid (i.e., on centennial \r\ntime-scale) retreat likely due to ice sheet instability processes between 20,000 and 9,000 years ago (Golledge et al., 2014; Weber \r\net al., 2014; Small et al., 2019). Both the WAIS (including Pine Island glacier) and EAIS also experienced rapid thinning and "


id: 2366eb43604255e9cd9d53969ccae30e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3426
content:
"grounding line retreat during the early to mid-Holocene (Jones et al., 2015b; Wise et al., 2017). In the Ross Sea, grounding lines \r\nmay have retreated several hundred kilometers inland and then re-advanced to their present-day positions due to bedrock uplift after \r\nice mass removal (Kingslake et al., 2018), thus supporting the stabilising role of glacial isostatic adjustment on ice sheets (Barletta et al., \r\n2018). These past rapid changes have likely been driven by the incursion of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Antarctic continental \r\nshelf (Section 3.3.1.5.1) (Golledge et al., 2014; Hillenbrand et al., 2017) and MISI (Jones et al., 2015b). Limited evidence of past MICI \r\nin Antarctica is provided by deep iceberg plough marks on the sea-floor (Wise et al., 2017)."


id: bad2afb7c7ccc552e78e48f6c943f0fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30080
content:
"The ability of models to simulate the processes controlling MISI has improved since AR5 (Pattyn, 2018), but significant discrepancies \r\nin projections remain (Section 4.2.3.2) due to poor understanding of mechanisms and lack of observational data on bed topography, \r\nisostatic rebound rates, etc. to constrain the models. Inclusion of MICI in one ice sheet model has improved its ability to match (albeit \r\nuncertain) geological sea level targets in the Pliocene (Pollard et al., 2015) and Last Interglacial (DeConto and Pollard, 2016), although \r\nthe MICI solution may not be unique (Aitken et al., 2016) (Section 4.2.3.1.2)."


id: 5fcb45ce4e1f8bc2d755db4d49ad2bfb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14156
content:
"The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has limited direct access to the ocean through relatively narrow subglacial troughs (Morlighem et al., \r\n2017), and most of the bedrock at the ice sheet margin is above sea level (Figure 4.5). However, since AR5 it has been argued \r\nthat several Greenland outlet glaciers (Petermann, Kangerdlugssuaq, Jakobshavn Isbrae, Helheim, Zachariae Isstrom) and North-East\r\nGreenland Ice Stream may contribute more than expected to future sea level rise (Mouginot et al., 2015). It has also been shown that \r\nGreenland was nearly ice free for extensive episodic periods during the Pleistocene, suggesting a sensitivity to deglaciation under \r\nclimates similar to or slightly warmer than present (Schaefer et al., 2016)."


id: 3757f6cab292c480eadbb195da03e38d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6952
content:
"A MICI-style behaviour is seen today in Greenland at the termini of Jakobshavn and Helheim glaciers (Parizek et al., 2019), but calving \r\nof these narrow outlets is controlled by a combination of ductile and brittle processes, which might not be representative examples of \r\nmuch wider Antarctic outlet glaciers, like Thwaites. "


id: b34e57c68ac75b790bf3cab355812ca3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28789
content:
"Overall, this assessment finds that unstable retreat and thinning of some Antarctic glaciers, and to a lesser extent Greenland outlet \r\nglaciers, may be underway. However, the timescale and future rate of these processes is not well known, casting deep uncertainty on \r\nprojections of the sea level contributions from the AIS (Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, Section 4.2.3.1). "


id: 5c944c1ac4c2eb8236ed9f05c2ac1a13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13549
content:
"Terrestrial snow cover is a defining characteristic of the Arctic land \r\nsurface for up to nine months each year, with changes influencing the \r\nsurface energy budget, ground thermal regime and freshwater budget. \r\nSnow cover also interacts with vegetation, influences biogeochemical \r\nactivity and affects habitats and species, with consequences for \r\necosystem services. Arctic land areas are almost always completely \r\nsnow covered in winter, so the transition seasons of autumn and \r\nspring are key when characterising variability and change."


id: 8a7be572b6589e2ecdf618eff94eb047
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21534
content:
"Weather station observations across the Russian Arctic identify \r\nnegative trends in the maximum snow depth between 1966 and \r\n2014 (Bulygina et al., 2011; Osokin and Sosnovsky, 2014). There is \r\nmedium confidence in this trend because the pointwise nature of \r\nthese measurements does not capture prevailing conditions across "


id: acf8e4890162558142993b2833ed7624
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27670
content:
"Dramatic reductions in Arctic (land areas north of 60oN) spring snow \r\ncover extent have occurred since satellite charting began in 1967 \r\n(Estilow et al., 2015). Declines in May and June of -3.5% (+- 1.9%) \r\nand -13.4% respectively per decade (+-  5.4%) between 1967 and \r\n2018 (relative to the 1981-2010 mean) were determined from "


id: 4d1420fd42ef58370377b9163401b8ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10831
content:
"precipitation estimates (Lindsay et al., 2014). Despite improved \r\nprocess understanding, estimates of sublimation loss during blowing \r\nsnow events remain a key uncertainty in the mass budget of the Arctic \r\nsnowpack (Sturm and Stuefer, 2013)."


id: 3200823f1ded99af7b645502ea60f2d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6052
content:
"the landscape. Seasonal maximum snow depth trends over the North \r\nAmerican Arctic are mixed and largely statistically insignificant \r\n(Vincent et al., 2015; Brown et al., 2017). The timing of maximum \r\nsnow depth has shifted earlier by  2.7 days per decade for the \r\nNorth American Arctic (Brown et al., 2017); comparable analysis is \r\nnot available for Eurasia. Gridded products from remote sensing \r\nand land surface models identify negative trends in snow water \r\nequivalent between 1981 and 2016 for both the Eurasian and \r\nNorth American sectors of the Arctic (Brown et al., 2017). While \r\nthe snow water equivalent anomaly time series show reasonable \r\nconsistency between products when averaged at the continental \r\nscale, considerable inter-dataset variability in the spatial patterns of \r\nchange (Liston and Hiemstra, 2011; Park et al., 2012; Brown et al., \r\n2017) mean there is only medium confidence in these trends."


id: f40962358ddc42a5dd0a5b3b59d85ae2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40306
content:
"Despite uncertainties due to sparse observations (Cowtan and Way, \r\n2014), surface temperature has increased across Arctic land areas in \r\nrecent decades (Hawkins and Sutton, 2012; Fyfe et al., 2013), driving \r\nreductions in Arctic snow extent and duration (high confidence).\r\nChanges in Arctic snow extent can be directly related to extratropical \r\ntemperature increases (Brutel-Vuilmet et al., 2013; Thackeray et al., \r\n2016; Mudryk et al., 2017). Based on multiple historical datasets, there \r\nis a  consistent temperature sensitivity for Arctic snow extent, with \r\napproximately 800,000 km2\r\n of snow cover lost per degrees Celsius \r\nwarming in spring (Brown and Derksen, 2013; Brown et al., 2017), \r\nand 700,000-800,000 km2\r\n lost in autumn (Derksen and Brown, 2012; \r\nBrown and Derksen, 2013) (high confidence)."


id: 4e03a9b0c39f27063af13d668405977
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10986
content:
"Precipitation remains a  sparse and highly uncertain measurement \r\nover Arctic land areas: in situ datasets remain uncertain (Yang, 2014) \r\nand are largely regional (Kononova, 2012; Vincent et al., 2015). \r\nAtmospheric reanalyses show increases in Arctic precipitation in recent \r\ndecades (Lique et al., 2016; Vihma et al., 2016), but there remains \r\nlow confidence in reanalysis-based closure of the Arctic freshwater \r\nbudget due to a  wide spread between available reanalysis derived "


id: 39ed87e8b963cfba6bbe643f7591a0a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7398
content:
"and Pollard, 2008; Leibman et al., 2011; Kokelj et al., 2017; Coulombe \r\net al., 2019). The location and volume of ground ice integrated across \r\nthe northern permafrost region (5.63-36.55 x 103 km3\r\n, equivalent \r\nto 2-10 cm sea level rise) is known with medium confidence and \r\nwith no recent updates at the circumpolar scale (Zhang et al., 2008). "


id: c4be0d74f382fcf6109622202d0b283d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31930
content:
"permafrost thaws in a warming climate, thus accelerating the pace of \r\nclimate change (Schuur et al., 2015). The current best mean estimate \r\nof total (surface plus deep) organic soil carbon (terrestrial) in the \r\nnorthern circumpolar permafrost region (17.8 x 106\r\n km2 area) is 1460 \r\nto 1600 petagrams (medium confidence) (Pg; 1 Pg = 1 billion metric \r\ntonnes) (Schuur et al., 2018). All permafrost region soils estimated \r\nto 3 m in depth (surface) contain 1035 +- 150 Pg C (Tarnocai et al., \r\n2009; Hugelius et al., 2014) (high confidence). Of the carbon in the \r\nsurface, 800-1000 Pg C  is perennially frozen, with the remainder \r\ncontained in seasonally-thawed soils. The northern circumpolar \r\npermafrost region occupies only 15% of the total global soil area, "


id: 5e5e3b14327977bf5158a215a42a160a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13895
content:
"but the 1035 Pg C  adds another 50% to the rest of the 3  m soil \r\ncarbon inventory (2050 Pg C for all global biomes excluding tundra \r\nand boreal; Jobbagy and Jackson, 2000; Schuur et al., 2015)."


id: 4a3266aca78ca6972eb45c50db4d1b1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10296
content:
"Substantial permafrost carbon exists below 3  m depth (medium \r\nconfidence). Deep carbon (>3 m) has been best quantified for the \r\nYedoma region of Siberia and Alaska, characterised by wind- and \r\nwater-moved permafrost sediments tens of meters thick. The Yedoma \r\nregion covers a 1.4 x 106\r\n km2 area that remained ice-free during the \r\nlast Ice Age (Strauss et al., 2013) and accounts for 327-466 Pg C in \r\ndeep sediment accumulations below 3 m (Strauss et al., 2017)."


id: ea010ea5d8ba8471c181b89072b6d50d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38520
content:
"Changes in temperature and precipitation act as gradual 'press' \r\n(i.e.,  continuous) disturbances that directly affect permafrost \r\nby modifying the ground thermal regime, as discussed in \r\nSection  3.4.1.2.1. Climate change can also modify the occurrence \r\nand magnitude of abrupt physical disturbances such as fire, and \r\nsoil subsidence and erosion resulting from ice rich permafrost thaw \r\n(thermokarst). These 'pulse' (i.e., discrete) disturbances (Smith et al., \r\n2009) often are part of the ongoing disturbance and successional \r\ncycle in Arctic and boreal ecosystems (Grosse et al., 2011), but \r\nchanging rates of occurrence alter the landscape distribution of \r\nsuccessional ecosystem states, with permafrost characteristics \r\ndefined by the ecosystem and climate state (Kanevskiy et al., 2013)."


id: 24c17259c4faec0b65815b12ada2f7c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3664
content:
"There is increasing awareness of the influence of a changing climate \r\non freshwater systems across the Arctic, and associated impacts \r\non hydrological, biogeophysical and ecological processes (Prowse \r\net al., 2015; Walvoord and Kurylyk, 2016), and northern populations \r\n(Takakura, 2018) (Section 3.4.3.3.1). Assessing these impacts requires \r\nconsideration of complex interconnected processes, many of which are \r\nincompletely observed. The increasing imprint of human development, "


id: e723c0a1f55279a094b91e03acb8dd11
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37963
content:
"Pulse disturbances often rapidly remove the insulating soil organic \r\nlayer, leading to permafrost degradation (Gibson et al., 2018). Of all \r\npulse disturbance types, wildfire affects the most high-latitude land \r\narea annually at the continental scale. In some well-studied regions, \r\nthere is high confidence that area burned, fire frequency and extreme \r\nfire years are higher now than the first half of the last century, or \r\neven the last 10,000 years (Kasischke and Turetsky, 2006; Flannigan "


id: 3a07fe3d680601ed20eaed0b773d181d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7422
content:
"such as flow regulation on major northerly flowing rivers adds \r\ncomplexity to the determination of climate-driven changes."


id: 69822b178321b6bb4ed469b10de7370c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15831
content:
"et al., 2013). While thaw in continuous permafrost is linked to \r\nintensified thermokarst activity and subsequent ponding (resulting \r\nin lake/wetland expansion), observations of change in surface water \r\ncoverage across the Arctic are regionally variable (Nitze et al., 2017; \r\nUlrich et al., 2017; Pastick et al., 2019). In landscapes with degrading \r\nice-wedge polygons, subsidence can reduce inundation, increase \r\nrunoff, and decrease surface water (Liljedahl et al., 2016; Perreault \r\net al., 2017). In discontinuous permafrost, thaw opens up pathways \r\nof subsurface flow, improving the connection among inland water \r\nsystems which supports the drainage of lakes and overall reduction \r\nin surface water cover (Jepsen et al., 2013). Enhanced subsurface \r\nconnectivity from thaw in discontinuous permafrost serves tempers \r\nshort-term lake fluctuations (Rey et al., 2019)."


id: 2eff41fdacccad50fbec506e5bc3889b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5544
content:
"Long-term in situ river ice records indicate that the duration of ice \r\ncover in Russian Arctic rivers decreased by 7-20 days between 1955 \r\nand 2012 (Shiklomanov and Lammers, 2014) (high confidence). This \r\nis consistent with historical reductions in Arctic river ice cover derived \r\nfrom models (Park et al., 2015) and regional analysis of satellite data \r\n(Cooley and Pavelsky, 2016)."


id: 627de6168821c3ddc66130ff3fef42aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14613
content:
"Satellite and model-derived estimates of evapotranspiration show \r\nincreases across the Arctic (Rawlins et al., 2010; Liu et al., 2014; \r\nLiu et al., 2015b; Fujiwara et al., 2016; Suzuki et al., 2018) (medium \r\nconfidence). Increases in the seasonal active layer thickness impact \r\ntemporary water storage and thus runoff regimes in drainage \r\nbasins. Formation of taliks underneath lakes and rivers may result \r\nin reconnection of surface with sub-permafrost ground water \r\naquifers with varying hydrological consequences depending on local \r\ngeological and hydraulic settings (Wellman et al., 2013)."


id: 48de4ecbea1aa38fd430ddaf144b6cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10033
content:
"Historical simulations from CMIP5 models tend to underestimate \r\nobserved reductions in spring snow cover extent due to uncertainty \r\nin the parameterisation of snow processes (Essery, 2013; Thackeray \r\net al., 2014), challenges in simulating snow-albedo feedback (Qu \r\nand Hall, 2014; Fletcher et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016b), unrealistic \r\ntemperature sensitivity (Brutel-Vuilmet et al., 2013; Mudryk et al., \r\n2017), and biases in climatological spring snow cover (Thackeray \r\net al., 2016). The role of precipitation biases is not well understood \r\n(Thackeray et al., 2016)."


id: 97f49d9f8e2d2620694c393ccbee034a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23948
content:
"Reductions in Arctic snow cover duration are projected by the CMIP5 \r\nmulti-model ensemble due to later snow onset in the autumn and \r\nearlier snow melt in spring (Brown et al., 2017) driven by increased \r\nsurface temperature over essentially all Arctic land areas (Hartmann \r\net al., 2013). There is high confidence that projected snow cover declines \r\nare proportional to the amount of future warming in each model \r\nrealisation (Thackeray et al., 2016; Mudryk et al., 2017). Projections to \r\nmid-century are primarily dependent on natural variability and model \r\ndependent uncertainties rather than the choice of forcing scenario \r\n(Hodson et al., 2013). By end of century, however, differences between \r\nscenarios emerge. Under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, Arctic snow cover \r\nduration stabilises at  5-10% reduction (compared to a  1986-2005 \r\nreference period); under RCP8.5, snow cover duration declines reach \r\n-15 to -25% (Brown et al., 2017) (Figure 3.10) (high confidence)."


id: 67ce786a0dd0cf1bcc88cdfee0a45707
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15534
content:
"Positive Arctic snow water equivalent changes emerge across the \r\neastern Eurasian Arctic by mid-century for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 \r\n(Brown et al., 2017) (medium confidence). Projected snow water \r\nequivalent increases across the North American Arctic are only \r\nmodest, emerge later in the century, and only under RCP8.5 (Brown \r\net al., 2017). These projected increases are due to enhanced snowfall \r\n(Krasting et al., 2013) from a more moisture-rich Arctic atmosphere \r\ncoupled with winter season temperatures that remain sufficiently low \r\nfor precipitation to fall as snow. There is low confidence in changes \r\nto snow properties such as density and stratigraphy (relevant for \r\nunderstanding the impacts of changes to Arctic snow on ecosystems) \r\nwhich are not resolved directly by climate model simulations, but \r\nrequire detailed snow physics models."


id: 1a6787d3e6a7e975717886ac51fe3ded
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1845
content:
"warmer than current conditions, increasing the heat flux to Arctic \r\nOcean (van Vliet et al., 2013)."


id: 38e77a4906d27098fc484ea5176569ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7216
content:
"Lake ice phenology is sensitive to projected changes in surface \r\ntemperature (Sharma et al., 2019). Lake ice models project an earlier \r\nspring break-up of between 10-25 days by mid-century (compared \r\nwith 1961-1990), and up to a  15-day delay in the freeze-up for \r\nlakes in the North American Arctic, with more extreme reductions for \r\ncoastal regions (Brown and Duguay, 2011; Dibike et al., 2011; Prowse \r\net al., 2011) (medium confidence). Mean maximum ice thickness is \r\nprojected to decrease by 10-50 cm over the same period (Brown and \r\nDuguay, 2011). High-latitude warming is projected to drive earlier \r\nriver ice break-up in spring due to both decreasing ice strength, and \r\nearlier onset of peak discharge (Cooley and Pavelsky, 2016). Complex \r\ninterplay between hydrology and hydraulics in controlling spring \r\nflooding and ice jam events complicate projections of these events \r\n(Prowse et al., 2010; Prowse et al., 2011)."


id: bf4f36e7b8ea16f2d2e286b457586d3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30924
content:
"Northern ecosystems contribute significantly to the global methane \r\nbudget, but there is low confidence about the degree to which \r\nadditional methane from northern lakes, ponds, wetland ecosystems, \r\nand the shallow Arctic Ocean shelves is currently contributing to \r\nincreasing atmospheric concentrations. Analyses of atmospheric \r\nconcentrations in Alaska concluded that local ecosystems surrounding \r\nthe observation site have not changed in the exchange of methane \r\nfrom the 1980s until the present, which suggests that either the local \r\nwetland ecosystems are responding similarly to other northern wetland \r\necosystems, or that increasing atmospheric methane concentrations \r\nin northern observation sites is derived from methane coming from "


id: 45a59b7e4b41dbcef1ee6aef48a7a637
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9470
content:
"The spatial variation in greening and browning trends in tundra \r\nare also not consistent over time (decadal scale) and can vary \r\nacross landform/ecosystem types (Lara et al., 2018), suggesting \r\ninteractions between the changing environment and the biological \r\ncomponents of the system that control these trends. There is high \r\nconfidence that increases in summer, spring and winter temperatures \r\nlead to tundra greening, as well as increases in growing season \r\nlength (e.g., Vickers et al., 2016; Myers-Smith and Hik, 2018) that \r\nare in part linked to reductions in Arctic Ocean sea ice cover (Bhatt \r\net al., 2017; Macias-Fauria et al., 2017). Other factors that stimulate \r\ntundra greening include increases in snow water equivalent and soil \r\nmoisture (Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2017), increases in active layer \r\nthickness (via nutrient availability or changes in moisture), changes "


id: 9f2b659877b1d4bfb209e21ea7ed14e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25226
content:
"in herbivore activity, and to a lesser degree, human use of the land \r\n(e.g., Salmon et al., 2016; Horstkotte et al., 2017; Martin et al., 2017; \r\nYu et al., 2017). Research on tundra browning is more limited but \r\nsuggests causal mechanisms that include changes in winter climate - \r\nspecifically reductions in snow cover due to winter warming events \r\nthat expose tundra to subsequent freezing and desiccation - , insect \r\nand pathogen outbreaks, increased herbivore grazing and ground ice \r\nmelting and subsidence that increases surface water (Phoenix and \r\nBjerke, 2016; Bjerke et al., 2017) (medium confidence)."


id: 167a140fca97b4644e5dd80665fa67dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1171
content:
"Reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus), through their numbers and \r\necological role as a large-bodied herbivores, are a key driver of Arctic \r\necology. The seasonal migrations that characterise Rangifer link \r\nthe coastal tundra to the continental boreal forests for some herds, \r\nwhile others live year-round on the tundra. Population estimates and \r\ntrends exist for most herds, and indicate that pan-Arctic migratory \r\ntundra Rangifer have declined from about 5 million in the 1990s to \r\nabout 2 million in 2017 (Gunn, 2016; Fauchald et al., 2017a) (high \r\nconfidence). Numbers have recently increased for two Alaska herds \r\nand the Porcupine caribou herd straddling Yukon and Alaska is at \r\na historic high."


id: 9d7441b86bc7e18a61ab18b1d85e79e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24939
content:
"In northern Fennoscandia, there are approximately 600,000 \r\nsemi-domesticated reindeer. Lichen rangelands are key to sustaining \r\nreindeer carrying capacity, with variable response to climate change: \r\nenhanced summer precipitation increases lichen biomass, while an \r\nincrease in winter precipitation lowers it (Kumpula et al., 2014). Fire \r\ndisturbance reduces the amount of pasture available for domestic \r\nreindeer and increases predation on herding lands (Lavrillier and \r\nGabyshev, 2017). Later ice formation on waterbodies can impact \r\nherding activities (Turunen et al., 2016). Ice formation from rain-on\u0002snow events is associated with population changes including cases \r\nof catastrophic mass starvation (Bartsch et al., 2010; Forbes et al., \r\n2016), but there is no evidence of trends in rain-on-snow events \r\n(Cohen et al., 2015; Dolant et al., 2017)."


id: 3474d72c3f7182168d9a7c2a87c72b00
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6464
content:
"Management of keystone species requires an understanding of \r\npathogens and disease in the context of climate warming, but evidence \r\nof changing patterns across northern ecosystems (spanning terrestrial, \r\naquatic, and marine environments) is hindered by an incomplete \r\npicture of pathogen diversity and distribution (Hoberg, 2013; Jenkins \r\net al., 2013; Cook et al., 2017). Among ungulates, it is virtually certain\r\nthat the emergence of disease attributed to nematode pathogens has \r\naccelerated since 2000 in the Canadian Arctic islands and Fennoscandia \r\n(Kutz et al., 2013; Hoberg and Brooks, 2015; Laaksonen et al., 2017; \r\nKafle et al., 2018). Discovery of the pathogenic bacterium Erysipelothrix \r\nrhusiopathiae has been linked to massive and widespread mortality "


id: 71ee3cd7354dffeece8a8fb28f958735
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17293
content:
"Enhanced subsurface water fluxes resulting from permafrost \r\ndegradation has consequences for inorganic natural and anthropogenic \r\nconstituents. Emerging evidence suggests large natural stores of \r\nmercury (Schuster et al., 2018; St Pierre et al., 2018) and other trace \r\nelements in permafrost (Colombo et al., 2018) may be released upon \r\nthaw, thereby having effects (largely unknown at this point) on aquatic \r\necosystems. In parallel, increased development activity in the Arctic is "


id: 224fde8b90af2e33b2a905302ba915fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3257
content:
"likely to lead to enhanced local sources of anthropogenic chemicals \r\nof emerging Arctic concern, including siloxanes, parabens, flame \r\nretardants, and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (AMAP, 2017c). \r\nFor legacy pollutants, there is high confidence that black carbon \r\nand persistent organic pollutants (e.g.,  hexachlorocyclohexanes, \r\npolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls) can \r\nbe transferred downstream and affect water quality (Hodson, 2014). \r\nLakes can become sinks of these contaminants, while floodplains can \r\nbe contaminated (Sharma et al.,2015)."


id: 98c474847041ef1d71c37ed6bbf57354
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24093
content:
"migration activities (Heim et al., 2016) (high confidence). Timing \r\nof important life history events such as spawning can become \r\nmismatched with changing stream flows (Lique et al., 2016). \r\nThere is regional evidence that migration timing has shifted earlier \r\nand winter egg incubation temperature has increased for pink \r\nsalmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), directly related to warming \r\n(Taylor, 2007). While long-term, pan-Arctic data on run timing of \r\nfishes are limited, phenological shifts could create mismatches \r\nwith food availability or habitat suitability in both marine and \r\nfreshwater environments for anadromous species, and in freshwater \r\nenvironments for freshwater resident species. Changes to the Arctic \r\ngrowing season (Xu et al., 2013a) increase the risk of drying of \r\nsurface water habitats and pose a potential mismatch in seasonal \r\navailability of food in rearing habitats."


id: 9281389476b658652161f7958f5c9821
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22994
content:
"In polar regions climate-induced changes in terrestrial, ocean and sea ice environments, together with human introduction of non-native \r\nspecies, have expanded the range of some temperate species and contracted the range of some polar fish and ice-associated species \r\n(Section 3.2.3.2; Duffy et al., 2017) (high confidence for detection, medium confidence for attribution). In some cases, spatial shifts \r\nin distribution have also been influenced by fluctuations in population abundance linked to climate-induced impacts on reproductive \r\nsuccess (Section 3.2.3). These changes have the potential to alter biodiversity in polar marine and terrestrial ecosystems (Frenot et al., \r\n2005; Frederiksen, 2017; McCarthy et al., 2019) (medium confidence)."


id: 8cd977ecea122168959215cd993c7bfa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21967
content:
"In the Arctic a number of fish species have changed their spatial distribution substantially over the recent decades (high confidence). \r\nThe most pronounced recent range expansion into the Arctic may be that of the summer feeding distribution of the temperate \r\nAtlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic Seas. From 1997 to 2016 the total area occupied by this large stock expanded \r\nfrom 0.4 to 2.5 million km2\r\n and the centre-of-gravity of distribution shifted westward by 1650 km and northward by 400 km (Olafsdottir "


id: a149d410bafa298e6e83fe93ac0318e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25598
content:
"et al., 2019), far into Icelandic and Greenland waters and even up to Svalbard (Berge et al., 2015; Jansen et al., 2016; Nottestad et al., \r\n2016). This range expansion was linked both to a pronounced increase in stock size and warming of the ocean (Berge et al., 2015; \r\nOlafsdottir et al., 2019) (high confidence). Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 further range expansions of mackerel are projected in Greenland \r\nwaters (Jansen et al., 2016) (medium confidence). However, further northwards expansion of planktivorous species may generally be \r\nrestricted by them not being adapted to lack of primary production during winter (Sundby et al., 2016). Range shifts have also been \r\nobserved in the Bering Sea since 1993, with warm bottom temperatures being associated with range contractions of Arctic species, \r\nand range expansions of sub-arctic species, with responses dependent on species specific vulnerably (Alabia et al., 2018; Stevenson \r\nand Lauth, 2018)."


id: 9eda69d40267d05bcc8d28486ebe8048
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25173
content:
"There is evidence based on population genetics that the ecosystem off Northeast Greenland could also become populated by a larger \r\nproportion of boreal species with ocean warming. Andrews et al. (2019) show that Atlantic cod, beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella), \r\nand deep-sea shrimp (Pandalus borealis) recently found on the Northeast Greenland shelf originate from the quite distant Barents Sea, \r\nand suggested that pelagic offspring were dispersed via advection across the Fram Strait."


id: 375dda91a4203659ce54ce8b52bdb790
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6953
content:
"Physical barriers to range expansions into the high Arctic interior shelf systems and the outflow systems of Eurasia and the Canadian \r\nArchipelago will continue to govern future expansions of fish populations (medium confidence). The limited available information on \r\nmarine fish from other Arctic shelf regions reveals a latitudinal cline in the abundance of commercially harvestable fish species. For \r\ninstance, there is evidence of latitudinal partitioning between the four dominant mid-water species (Polar cod, saffron cod (Eleginus \r\ngracilis), capelin, and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii)) in the Chuckchi and Northern Bering Sea, with Polar cod being most abundant to \r\nthe north (De Robertis et al., 2017). These latitudinal gradients suggest that future range expansions of fish populations will continue \r\nto be governed by a combination of physical factors affecting overwintering success and the availability, quality and quantity of prey \r\n(medium confidence)."


id: 9fc0ad4e81d00c5307b512c5fa8b8ff9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25312
content:
"Range expansions also include the threat from alien species brought in by humans to become invasive and outcompete native species. \r\nRelatively few invasive alien species are presently well established in the Arctic, but many are thriving in the subarctic and may expand \r\nas a result of climate change (CAFF, 2013a; CAFF, 2013b). Examples of this include: American mink (Neovison vison) and Nootka lupin \r\n(Lupinus nootkatensis) in Arctic western Eurasia, Greenland and Iceland that are already causing severe problems to native fauna and \r\nflora (CAFF and PAME, 2017)."


id: 1ea12dcd394836021c0a1ff72674be4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2593
content:
"duration (Section 3.4.1.1), and changes to snow conditions (such as \r\ndensity) make travel more difficult and dangerous (Laidler, 2012; Ford \r\net al., 2019). Changes in dominant wind direction and speed reduce \r\nthe reliability of traditional navigational indicators such as snow \r\ndrifts, increasing safety concerns (Ford and Pearce, 2012; Laidler, 2012; \r\nFord et al., 2013; Clark et al., 2016b). Permafrost warming, increased \r\nactive layer thickness and landscape instability (Section 3.4.1.3), fire \r\ndisturbance and changes to water levels (Section  3.4.1.2) impact \r\noverland navigability in summer (Goldhar et al., 2014; Brinkman \r\net al., 2016; Dodd et al., 2018)."


id: ad517f29a6bddbc9ae46cc0963960304
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27737
content:
"The Arctic is home to over four million people, with large regional \r\nvariation in population distribution and demographics (Heleniak, \r\n2014). 'Connection with nature' is a defining feature of Arctic identity \r\nfor indigenous communities (Schweitzer et al., 2014) because the \r\nlands, waters and ice that surround communities evoke a  sense \r\nof home, freedom and belonging, and are crucial for culture, life \r\nand survival (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2012; Durkalec et al., 2015). \r\nClimate-driven environmental changes are affecting local ecosystems \r\nand influencing travel, hunting, fishing and gathering practises. This \r\nhas implications for people's livelihoods, cultural practices, economies \r\nand self-determination."


id: 32c82b9768eac41336d5b7805d885051
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6202
content:
"Impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic can \r\nbe severe in regions where infrastructure (including ice roads), travel \r\nand subsistence practices are reliant on elements of the cryosphere \r\nsuch as snow cover, permafrost and freshwater or sea ice (Cochran \r\net al., 2013; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015)."


id: 6b5465c9326487ce6dfeecc5e517a648
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16183
content:
"Many northern communities rely on ponds, streams and lakes for \r\ndrinking water (Cochran et al., 2013; Goldhar et al., 2013; Nymand \r\nand Fondahl, 2014; Daley et al., 2015; Dudley et al., 2015; Masina \r\net al., 2019), so there is high confidence that projected changes in \r\nhydrology will impact water supply (Section 3.4.2.2). Surface water \r\nis vulnerable to thermokarst disturbance and drainage, as well as \r\nbacterial contamination, the risks of which are increased by warming \r\nground and water temperatures (Cozzetto et al., 2013; Goldhar \r\net al., 2013; Dudley et al., 2015; Masina et al., 2019). Icebergs or \r\nold multi-year ice are important sources of drinking water for some \r\ncoastal communities, so reduced accessibility to stable sea ice \r\nconditions affects local water security. Small remote communities \r\nhave limited capacity to respond quickly to water supply threats, \r\nwhich amplifies vulnerabilities to water security (Daley et al., 2015)."


id: 9de02e13041e57f354308a30e28dfcd0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25011
content:
"Spending time on the land is culturally important for indigenous \r\ncommunities (Eicken et al., 2014; Durkalec et al., 2015). There is high \r\nconfidence that daily life is influenced by changes to ice freeze-up \r\nand break-up (rivers/lakes/sea ice), snow onset/melt, vegetation "


id: ce77bb9f1e917476302deca887418a18
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33670
content:
"phenology, and related wildlife/fish/bird behaviour (Inuit Circumpolar \r\nCouncil-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015). Inter-generational knowledge \r\ntransmission of associated values and skills is also influenced by \r\nclimate change because younger generations do not have the same \r\nlevel of experience or confidence with traditional indicators (Ford, \r\n2012; Parlee and Furgal, 2012; Eicken et al., 2014; Pearce et al., \r\n2015). Climate-driven changes undermine confidence in indigenous \r\nknowledge holders in regards to traditional indicators used for safe \r\ntravel and navigation (Parlee and Furgal, 2012; Golovnev, 2017; Ford \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 3e598c5c26dfd0c749bb1aacbf96cf4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8147
content:
"Dudley et al., 2015). After periods of rapid snowmelt, bacteria can \r\nincrease in untreated drinking water, with associated increases in \r\nacute gastrointestinal illness (Harper et al., 2011). Consumption of \r\nuntreated drinking water may increase duration and frequency of \r\nexposure to local environmental contaminants (Section  3.4.3.2.3) \r\nor potential waterborne diseases (Goldhar et al., 2014; Daley et al., \r\n2015). The potential for infectious gastrointestinal disease is not well \r\nunderstood, and there are concerns in relation to the safety of storage \r\ncontainers of raw water in addition to the quality of the source water \r\nitself (Goldhar et al., 2014; Wright et al., 2018; Masina et al., 2019)."


id: 20df61f97b574ff6300581c37b31bb42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3005
content:
"For many polar residents, especially Indigenous peoples, the physical \r\nenvironment underpins social determinants of well-being, including \r\nphysical and mental health. Changes to the environment impact \r\nmost dimensions of health and well-being (Parlee and Furgal, 2012; \r\nOstapchuk et al., 2015). Climate change consequences in polar \r\nregions (Sections 3.3.1.1, 3.4.1.2) have impacted key transportation \r\nroutes (Gearheard et al., 2006; Laidler, 2006; Ford et al., 2013; Clark \r\net al., 2016a) and pose increased risk of injury and death during \r\ntravel (Durkalec et al., 2014; Durkalec et al., 2015; Clark et al., 2016b; \r\nDriscoll et al., 2016)."


id: 920ab4bdf7af2e60ee0b581a969bc416
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22908
content:
"Permafrost is undergoing rapid change (Section  3.4.1.2), creating \r\nchallenges for planners, decision makers and engineers (AMAP, \r\n2017d). The observed changes in the ground thermal regime \r\n(Romanovsky et al., 2010; Romanovsky et al., 2017; Biskaborn et al., \r\n2019) threaten the structural stability and functional capacities of \r\ninfrastructure, in particular that which is located on ice rich frozen \r\nground. Extensive summaries of construction damages along with \r\nadaptation and mitigation strategies are available (Larsen et al., \r\n2014; Dore et al., 2016; AMAP, 2017d; Pendakur, 2017; Shiklomanov \r\net al., 2017a; Shiklomanov et al., 2017b; Vincent et al., 2017)."


id: 2d35ccf03cbcf72c47684c5d93198f2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5239
content:
"Projections of climate and permafrost suggest that a  wide range \r\ncurrent infrastructure will be impacted by changing conditions \r\n(medium confidence). A circumpolar study found that approximately \r\n70% of infrastructure (residential, transportation and industrial \r\nfacilities), including over 1200 settlements (~40 with population \r\nmore than 5000) are located in areas where permafrost is projected \r\nto thaw by 2050 under RCP4.5 (Hjort et al., 2018). Regions associated \r\nwith the highest hazard are in the thaw-unstable zone characterised \r\nby relatively high ground-ice content and thick deposits of frost \r\nsusceptible sediments (Shiklomanov et al., 2017b). By 2050, these \r\nhigh hazard environments contain one-third of existing pan-Arctic \r\ninfrastructure. Onshore hydrocarbon extraction and transportation \r\nin the Russian Arctic are at risk: 45% of the oil and natural gas "


id: 3969286b6b57195bc563a42204cacb20
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7315
content:
"Foodborne disease is an emerging concern in the Arctic because \r\nwarmer waters, loss of sea ice (Section  3.3.1.1) and resultant \r\nchanges in contaminant pathways can lead to bioaccumulation and \r\nbiomagnification of contaminants in key food species. While many \r\nhypothesised foodborne diseases are not well studied (Parkinson and \r\nBerner, 2009), foodborne gastroenteritis is associated with shellfish \r\nharvested from warming waters (McLaughlin et al., 2005; Young \r\net al., 2015). Mercury presently stored in permafrost (Schuster et al., \r\n2018) has potential to accumulate in aquatic ecosystems."


id: 73dc2bafc71d43181e4a90d91ce4671
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17638
content:
"Climate change increases the risk of waterborne disease in the Arctic \r\nvia warming water temperatures and changes to surface hydrology \r\n(Section 3.4.1.2) (Parkinson and Berner, 2009; Brubaker et al., 2011; "


id: d0eb4e2983c9cb1fbfa1234a23e53abf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34102
content:
"movement to greater urbanisation in the Arctic (AHDR, 2014), that \r\ntrend is not true for all regions (Heleniak, 2014). About 4400 people \r\nreside in Antarctic in the summer and about 1100 in the winter, \r\npredominantly based at research stations of which approximately 40 \r\nare occupied year-round (The World Factbook, 2016)."


id: d76523b781a173e7b906d582b9db0f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35198
content:
"In a  regional study of the state of Alaska, cumulative expenses \r\nprojected for climate-related damage to public infrastructure totalled \r\nUSD 5.5 billion between 2015 and 2099 under RCP8.5 (Melvin et al., \r\n2017). The top two causes of damage related costs were projected to \r\nbe road flooding from increased precipitation, and building damage \r\nassociated with near-surface permafrost thaw. These costs decreased \r\nby 24% to USD 4.2 billion for the same time frame under RCP4.5, \r\nindicating that reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally could \r\nlessen damages (Figure 3.13). In a related study that included these \r\ncosts and others, as well as positive gains from climate change in \r\nterms of a reduction in heating costs attributable to warmer winter, \r\nannual net costs were still USD 340-700  million, or  0.6-1.3% of \r\nAlaska's GDP, suggesting that climate change costs will outweigh \r\npositive benefits, at least for this region (Berman and Schmidt, 2019)."


id: a0816bd682ae267a02c6938c4be44927
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25450
content:
"For most Arctic Indigenous peoples, human responses to climate \r\nchange are viewed as a matter of cultural survival (Greaves, 2016) \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box 3  in Chapter  1). However, Indigenous people \r\nare not homogenous in their perspectives. While in some cases \r\nIndigenous people are negatively impacted by sectoral activities such \r\nas mining and oil and gas development (Nymand and Fondahl, 2014), \r\nin other cases they benefit financially (Shadian, 2014), setting up \r\ndilemmas and potential internal conflicts (Huskey, 2018; Southcott \r\nand Natcher, 2018) (high confidence). Geopolitical complexities also \r\nconfound responses."


id: 64af3aa92e01a49cbfba9c7be01702c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14997
content:
"Together these conditions make for complexity and uncertainty in \r\nhuman decision making, be it at the household and community levels \r\nto the international level. Adding to uncertainty in human choice \r\nrelated to climate change is the interaction of climate with other \r\nforces for change, such as globalisation and land and sea-use change. \r\nThese interactions necessitate that responses to climate change \r\nconsider cumulative effects as well as context-specific pathways for \r\nbuilding resilience (Nymand and Fondahl, 2014; ARR, 2016). "


id: 853640d7fab42a074b3cb4dd2595d4ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20578
content:
"Winter roads (snow covered ground and frozen lakes) are distinct from \r\nthe infrastructure considered earlier, but have a strong influence on \r\nthe reliability and costs of transportation in some remote northern \r\ncommunities and industrial development sites (Parlee and Furgal, \r\n2012; Huskey et al., 2014; Overland et al., 2017). For these communities, \r\nchanging lake and river levels and the period of safe ice cover all affect \r\nthe duration of use of overland travel routes and inland waterways, \r\nwith associated implications for increased travel risks, time, and costs \r\n(Laidler, 2012; Ford et al., 2013; Goldhar et al., 2014). There have been \r\nrecent instances of severely curtailed ice road shipping seasons due \r\nto unusually warm conditions in the early winter (Sturm et al., 2017). \r\nWhile the impact of human effort on the maintenance of winter roads \r\nis difficult to quantify, a reduction in the operational time window due \r\nto winter warming is projected (Mullan et al., 2017)."


id: c3d6e68dcabbe785ae8a6e6cf471870a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31731
content:
"The sections below assess human responses to climate change in \r\npolar regions by examining various sectors of human-environment \r\nactivity (i.e., social-ecological subsystems), reviewing their respective \r\nsystems of governance related to climate change, and considering \r\npossible resilience pathways. Table 3.4 summarises the consequences, \r\ninteracting drivers, responses and assets for responding to climate \r\nchange by social-ecological subsystems (i.e., sectors) of Arctic \r\nand Antarctic regions. An area of response not elaborated in this \r\nassessment is geoengineered sea ice remediation to support local-to\u0002regional ecosystem restoration and which may also affect climate via \r\nalbedo changes. There is an emerging body of literature on this topic \r\n(e.g., Berdahl et al., 2014; Desch et al., 2017; Field et al., 2018), which \r\nat present is too limited to allow assessing dimensions of feasibility, \r\nbenefits and risks, and governance."


id: 1b5dd710032eee13ec66fa48fa1bc48e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1992
content:
"Human responses to climate change in the Arctic and Antarctica \r\nare shaped by their unique physical, ecological, social, cultural \r\nand political conditions. Extreme climatic conditions, remoteness \r\nfrom densely populated regions, limited human mobility, short \r\nseasons of biological productivity, high costs in monitoring and \r\nresearch, sovereignty claims to lands and waters by southern-based \r\ngovernments, a rich diversity of indigenous cultures and institutional \r\narrangements that in some cases recognise indigenous rights and \r\nsupport regional and international cooperation in governance are \r\namong the many factors that impede and or facilitate adaptation."


id: ada88924ccb26f2d416ad8dddd3ea027
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27793
content:
"Responses addressing changes in the abundance and distribution of \r\nfish resources (Section 3.2.4.1) differ by region. In some polar regions, \r\nstrategies of adaptive governance, biodiversity conservation, scenario \r\nplanning and the precautionary approach are in use (NPFMC, 2018). \r\nFurther development of coordinated monitoring programs (Cahalan \r\net al., 2014; Ganz et al., 2018), data sharing, social learning and \r\ndecision support tools that alert managers to climate change impacts \r\non species and ecosystems would allow for appropriate and timely \r\nresponses including changes in overall fishing capacity, individual \r\nstock quotas, shifts between different target species, opening/closure \r\nof different geographic areas and balance between different fishing "


id: 8c6843e1a5fab69c660fffee5f35eb60
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21883
content:
"The social and cultural differences are an especially noteworthy \r\nfactor in assessing polar responses. Approximately four million people \r\ncurrently reside in the Arctic with about three quarters residing in \r\nurban areas, and approximately 10% being Indigenous (AHDR, 2014). \r\nRegions of the Arctic differ widely in population, ranging from 94% of \r\nIceland's population living in urban environments to 68% of Nunavut's \r\npopulation living in rural areas. And while there has been a general "


id: a9afcfe9d76bfc4cd56d21e09a4aecf0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27075
content:
"and potential interest in expanding fisheries, the Inuvialuit subsistence \r\nfishers of the western Canadian Arctic developed a  new proactive \r\necosystem-based Fisheries Management Framework (Ayles et al., \r\n2016). Also in Western Canada, the commercial fishery for Arctic char \r\n(Salvenius alpinus) in Cambridge Bay is co-managed by local Inuit \r\norganisations and Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO, 2014)."


id: 7f567739cb625d474e5347ac21f55b56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19556
content:
"fleets (Busch et al., 2016; NPFMC, 2019; see Section 3.5.4). Scenario \r\nplanning, adaptive management and similar efforts will contribute \r\nto the resilience and conservation of these social-ecological systems \r\n(medium confidence)."


id: 3733be7a13b261629201b7c51582603
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6929
content:
"Five Arctic States, known as 'Arctic  5' (Canada, Denmark, Norway, \r\nRussia and the United States) have sovereign rights for exploring \r\nand exploiting resources within their 200 nautical mile Exclusive \r\nEconomic Zones (EEZs) in the High Arctic and manage their resources \r\nwithin their own regulatory measures. A  review of future harvest \r\nin the European Arctic (Haug et al., 2017) points towards high \r\nprobability of increased northern movement of several commercial \r\nfish species (Section 3.3.3.1, Box 3.4), but only to the shelf slope for \r\nthe demersal species. This shift suggests increased northern fishing \r\nactivity, but within the EEZs and present management regimes (Haug \r\net al., 2017) (medium confidence)."


id: 5b64c498e14d60b6c27f4b984a1cb9b4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13324
content:
"CCAMLR is responsible for the conservation of marine resources \r\nsouth of the Antarctic Polar Front (CCAMLR, 1982), and has \r\necosystem-based fisheries management embedded within its \r\nconvention (Constable, 2011). This includes the CCAMLR Ecosystem \r\nMonitoring Program, which aims to monitor important land-based \r\npredators of krill to detect the effects of the krill fishery on the \r\necosystem. Currently, there is no formal mechanism for choosing \r\nwhich data are needed in a management procedure for krill or how \r\nto include such data. However, this information will be important in \r\nenabling CCAMLR fisheries management to respond to the effects of \r\nclimate change on krill and krill predators in the future. "


id: 8d58fa4e5fc3d151b4d188bf0d8bf163
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22046
content:
"Commercial fisheries management responses to climate change \r\nimpacts in the Southern Ocean may need to address the displacement \r\nof fishing effort due to poleward shifts in species distribution (Pecl \r\net al., 2017) (Box  3.4) (low confidence). Fisheries in the Southern \r\nOcean are relatively mobile and are potentially able to respond to \r\nrange shifts in target species, which is in contrast to small-scale \r\ncoastal fisheries in other regions. Management responses will also \r\nneed to adapt to the effects of future changes in sea ice extent and \r\nduration on the spatial distribution of fishing operations (ATCM, \r\n2017; Jabour, 2017) (Section 3.2.4)."


id: 7e8fe2c2013c268d7866b95f8e9aa27d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19418
content:
"Subsistence users have responded to climate change by adapting \r\ntheir wildfood production systems and engaging in the climate policy \r\nprocesses at multiple levels of governance. The limitations of many \r\nformal institutions, however, suggest that in order to achieve greater \r\nresilience of subsistence systems with climate change, transformations \r\nin governance are needed to provide greater power sharing, \r\nincluding more resources for engaging in climate change studies and \r\nregional-to-national policy making (see Sections 3.2.4.1.1, 3.4.3.2.2, \r\n3.4.3.3.1, 3.4.3.3.2, 3.4.3.3.3, 3.5.3). "


id: d2036f95e3d2fbbf765c966234fc34f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34299
content:
"In the US portion of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas EEZ, fishing is \r\nprohibited until sufficient information is obtained to sustainably \r\nmanage the resource (Wilson and Ormseth, 2009). In the Canadian \r\nsector of the Beaufort Sea, commercial fisheries are currently only \r\nsmall-scale and locally operated. However, with decreasing ice cover "


id: 9193354e77f3e2b2d5b54810e585f1cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22836
content:
"co-management comes with high transaction costs (e.g.,  greater \r\ndemands on overburdened indigenous leaders, added stress of \r\ncommunities living with limited resources) (Forbes et al., 2015). In \r\nsome cases, co-management has given communities a greater voice \r\nin decision making, but when ineffective, these arrangements can \r\nperpetuate dominant paradigms of resource management (AMAP, \r\n2018). The perceived risks of climate change can at the same time \r\nreinforce cultural identify and motivate greater political involvement, \r\nwhich in turn, gives indigenous leaders experience as agents \r\nof change in policy making. Penn et al. (2016) pointed to these \r\nconflicting forces, arguing the need for a greater focus on community \r\ncapacity and cumulative effects."


id: fed48b7badbbe99ecb805fad47aadfde
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42227
content:
"Greater involvement of indigenous subsistence users in Canada \r\noccurs at the national and regional levels through the structures \r\nand provisions of indigenous settlement agreements (e.g.,  1993 \r\nNunavut Land Claims Agreement, 1984 Inuvialuit Final Agreement), \r\nfish and wildlife co-management agreements (e.g., Porcupine \r\nCaribou Management Agreement of 1986), and through various \r\nboundary organisations (e.g, CircumArctic Rangifer Monitoring and \r\nAssessment Network). Home rule in Greenland, established in 1979, \r\ngives the Naalakkersuisut (government of Greenland) authority on \r\nmost domestic matters of governance."


id: c6708781e7eb8d490a9b26e79b50ee0d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32222
content:
"The impacts of climate change have also required adaptation to \r\nthe non-harvesting aspects of wildfood production, such as an \r\nabandonment of traditional food storage and drying practices \r\n(e.g., ice cellars) and an increased use of household and community \r\nfreezers (AMAP, 2017a). In several cases there has been an increased \r\nemphasis on community self-reliance, such as use of household and \r\ncommunity gardens for food production (Loring et al., 2016). In the \r\nfuture, agriculture may be more possible with improved conditions at \r\nthe southern limit of the Arctic, and could supplement hunting and \r\nfishing (AMAP, 2018)."


id: a222f0bf2fc18b863218e58d5f497015
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25760
content:
"Climate change may in the future bring both new harvestable fish, \r\nbirds, mammals and berry producing plants to the north, and reduced \r\npopulations and or access to currently harvested species (AMAP, \r\n2017a; AMAP, 2017b; AMAP, 2018). Adaptive co-management and \r\nstronger links of local-to-regional level management with national \r\nto international level agreements necessitate consideration for \r\nsustainable harvest of new resources, as well as securing sustainable \r\nharvest or even full protection of dwindling or otherwise vulnerable \r\npopulations. In these cases, adaptive co-management could be an \r\nefficient tool to achieve consensus on population goals, including \r\ninternational cooperation and agreements regarding migratory \r\nspecies shared between more countries (Kocho-Schellenberg and \r\nBerkes, 2014) (Section 3.5.4.3). "


id: f8db76b21d2920189eb6863bed95d1e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41146
content:
"Herders' responses to climate change have varied by region and \r\nrespective herding practices, and in some cases are constrained \r\nby limited access to pastures (Klokov, 2012; Forbes et al., 2016; \r\nUboni et al., 2016; Mallory and Boyce, 2017). These conditions are \r\nexacerbated in some cases by high numbers of predators (Lavrillier \r\nand Gabyshev, 2018). In Fennoscandia, husbandry practices of \r\nreindeer by some (mostly Sami) include supplemental feeding, which \r\nprovide a  buffer for unfavourable conditions. In Alaska, reindeer \r\nherding is primarily free range, where herders must manage herd \r\nmovements in the event of icing events and the potential loss of \r\nreindeer because the movements of caribou herds (wild reindeer), \r\nboth of which are partially driven by climate. For Nenets of the \r\nYamal, Russia, resilience in herding has been facilitated through \r\nherders' own agency and, to some extent, the willingness of the gas "


id: f4c06efa703c3336b20ff78182578ee8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40433
content:
"While there has been involvement of subsistence users in \r\nmonitoring and research on climate change (Section  3.5.4.1.1), \r\nresource management regimes that regulate harvesting are largely \r\ndictated by science-based paradigms that give limited legitimacy \r\nto the knowledge and suggested preferences of subsistence users \r\n(Section 3.5.4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1)."


id: cd61e9e1f23a0ce3b09141d17b2b3b2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33471
content:
"The social costs and social learning associated with responding \r\nto climate change are often related. Involvement in adaptive "


id: f59f011b2db7d6908dda4b4fbcd1c287
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40582
content:
"Climate change has resulted a limited response by non-renewable \r\nresource extraction industries and agencies in the Arctic to changes \r\nin sea ice, thawing permafrost, spring runoffs, and resultant timing \r\nof exploration, construction and use of ice roads, and infrastructure \r\ndesign (AHDR, 2014). In some regions, climate change has offered \r\nnew development opportunities, although off-shore prospects \r\nremaining cost prohibitive given current world markets (Petrick et al., \r\n2017). (In the area covered by the Antarctic Treaty, exploitation of \r\nmineral resources is prohibited by the Protocol on Environmental \r\nProtection to the Antarctic Treaty.)"


id: 3ad93d6528b5291695184a2e05088c50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7553
content:
"Several regional governments are assessing the long-term viability of \r\nice roads, historically used for accessing mineral development sites, \r\nas well as some Arctic human settlements. In Northwest Territories, \r\nCanada, several ice roads are being replaced with all-season roads, \r\nwith other replacements proposed. Assessing future conditions is key \r\nfor planning and initiating new projects (Hori et al., 2018; Kiani et al., \r\n2018) but is often constrained by uncertainties of available climate \r\nmodels (Mullan et al., 2017)."


id: 5aae661ae70fa88743a394f4b24a6412
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13207
content:
"Tourism activities in the Antarctic are conducted in accordance with \r\nthe Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, \r\nwhich establishes general environmental principles, environmental \r\nassessment requirements, a  scheme of establishing protected areas \r\nand restrictions on waste disposal. Site-specific management tools \r\nare in place. While there are varying views amongst Antarctic Treaty \r\nParties on the best management regulations for Antarctic tourism, \r\nthese Parties continue to work to manage tourism activity, including \r\ngrowth in numbers of visitors. In addition to the Protocol, mandatory \r\nmeasures have been agreed to manage aspects of tourism activity. \r\nIndustry self-regulation supplements these requirements, coordinated \r\nby the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, which \r\nhas worked with Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties to manage \r\nchanges in operations and their impact on ice-free areas (ATCM, 2016). "


id: ae8957ac0841b858973c3bce977ae361
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27939
content:
"On the North Slope of Alaska, oil and gas development is now \r\nundergoing new expansion, while industry concurrently faces \r\nincreasing challenges of climate change, such as shorter and warmer \r\nwinters, the main season for oil exploration and production (Lilly, \r\n2017). The method for building of ice roads on the North Slope \r\nhas been somewhat modified to account for warmer temperatures \r\nduring construction. There are also knowledge gaps in understanding \r\nimplications of seismic studies with climate change on the landscape \r\n(Dabros et al., 2018). The issue of cumulative effects also raises \r\nquestions of current practice of environmental impact assessment to \r\nevaluate potential cumulative effects (Kirkfeldt et al., 2016)."


id: 16168c163bf345e617d695e22662ba4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1100
content:
"Lilly (2017) reported that optimising Alaska North Slope transportation \r\nnetworks during winter field operations is critical in managing \r\nincreasing resource development and could potentially provide \r\na  better framework for environmentally responsible development. \r\nBetter understanding of environmental change is also important in \r\nensuring continued oil field operations with protection of natural \r\nresources. Improved forecasting of short-term conditions (i.e., snow, \r\nsoil temperatures, spring runoffs) could allow management agencies \r\nto respond to conditions more proactively and give industry more \r\ntime to plan winter mobilisation, such as construction of ice roads \r\n(low confidence)."


id: 27a11d93dda20968862e4c278a490f15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4153
content:
"(Marino, 2012; Romero Manrique et al., 2018). The Alaska Denali \r\nCommission, an independent federal agency designed to provide \r\ncritical utilities, infrastructure and economic support throughout \r\nAlaska, is now serving as the lead coordinating organisation for \r\nAlaska village relocations and managing federal funding allocations. \r\nSeveral efforts have also been undertaken to provide assessment \r\nframeworks and protocols for settlement relocation as an adaptive \r\nresource (Bronen, 2015; Ristroph, 2017)."


id: 2463cb0e7219915baa81f82a8bead023
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3596
content:
"While there has been discussion of future 'climigration' in rural Alaska \r\n(Bronen and Chapin, 2013; Matthews and Potts, 2018), a study of Alaska \r\nrural villages threated by climate change showed no outmigration \r\nresponse (Hamilton et al., 2016). Several factors explain the lack of \r\noutmigration, including an unwillingness to move, attachment to place, \r\npeople's inability to relocate, the effectiveness of alternative ways of \r\nachieving acceptable outcomes and methods of buffering through \r\nsubsidies (Huntington et al., 2018) (medium confidence)."


id: 7852ab75849b8d488df9a27fa1270d28
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18377
content:
"Reducing and avoiding the impacts of climate change on infrastructure \r\nwill require special attention to engineering, land use planning, \r\nmaintenance operations, local culture and private and public budgeting \r\n(AMAP, 2017a; AMAP, 2017b; AMAP, 2018). In some cases, relocation \r\nof human settlements will be required, necessitating more formal \r\nmethods of assessing relocation needs and identifying sources of \r\nfunding to support relocations (Cross-Chapter Box 9) (high confidence)."


id: 193f5873d913f09b2336907ab7acd7c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1656
content:
"The current pan-Arctic trend of urbanisation (AHDR, 2014), suggests \r\nthat climate change responses related to infrastructure in towns and \r\ncities of the North will require significant adaptation in designs and \r\nincreases in spending (Streletskiy et al., 2012). These costs do not \r\ninclude costs related to flooding and other stressors associated with \r\nwarming or additional costs of commercial and industrial operations. \r\nEngineers in countries with permafrost are actively working to adapt \r\nthe design of structures to degrading permafrost conditions (Dore \r\net al., 2016) and the effects of a warming climate, for example the \r\nCold Climate Housing Research Center of Alaska."


id: f298b83892a6d1593877a43f09d6d12b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40083
content:
"A discussion of the relocation of Alaska's coastal villages is found \r\nin Cross-Chapter Box  9. Alaskan coastal communities are not the \r\nonly settlements potentially requiring relocation. Subsidence due \r\nto thawing permafrost and river and delta erosion makes other \r\nrural communities of Alaska and Russia vulnerable, potentially \r\nrequiring relocation in the future (Bronen, 2015; Romero Manrique \r\net al., 2018). These situations raise issues of environmental justice \r\nand human rights (Bronen, 2017), and illustrate the limits of \r\nincremental adaptation when transformation change is needed \r\n(Kates et al., 2012). In other cases, cultural resources in the form of \r\nhistoric infrastructure are being threatened and require mitigation \r\n(Radosavljevic et al., 2015). Responsibility for funding has been a key \r\nissue in the relocation process (Iverson, 2013) as well as the overall \r\nrole of government and local communities in relocation planning "


id: 145444893323c73c99b899cb88f93d3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 795
content:
"An analysis of the costs of total damages from climate change \r\nto public infrastructure in Alaska show the financial benefits of \r\nproactive adaptation (Melvin et al., 2017) (Figure 3.12). In addition \r\nto global carbon emission mitigation, hardening and redesigning of \r\ninfrastructure can reduce costs of future climate-related impacts. For \r\nexample, retrofitting and redesigning of infrastructure in order to \r\nhandle increased precipitation and warmer temperatures can reduce "


id: 5a9204ae63753e7973019f1b3dc90f36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13190
content:
"climate-related costs by 50%, from USD  5.5 to  2.9  billion under \r\nRCP8.5 by 2100. The cost savings of retrofitting and redesigning \r\ninfrastructure is even higher than the savings from carbon mitigation, \r\nwhere impact costs are estimated at USD 4.2 billion under RCP4.5 \r\nby 2100. Engineering adaptation provide proportionally similar cost \r\nsavings no matter which emission scenario was used."


id: 3b37005af25e9269cf77f8c4fb3002ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7606
content:
"facilitate addressing emerging climate change issues (Arctic Council, \r\n2015a; ARR, 2016; PEW Charitable Trust, 2016; Chenier et al., 2017; \r\nIMO, 2017) (high confidence). Cooperation of the member states of \r\nthe Arctic Council resulted in the 2011 Agreement on Cooperation \r\non Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic and \r\nin the 2013 Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution \r\nPreparedness and Response in the Arctic. These agreements can, if \r\nadequately implemented, reduce risks from increased Arctic shipping \r\n(medium confidence), however, developing more effective measures \r\nis needed as preparedness and response gaps still exist, for example, \r\nfor the central Arctic Ocean."


id: 5cae567eef9b0f53c792816773c3f1e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13570
content:
"Increases in Arctic marine transportation create impacts and risks for \r\necosystems and people, such as an increased likelihood of accidents, \r\nthe introduction of invasive species, oil spills, waste discharges, \r\ndetrimental impacts on animals, habitat and subsistence activities \r\n(Sections  3.2.4.3,  3.4.3.3.2). There has been a  rise in geopolitical \r\ndebate regarding national and international level regulations and \r\npolicies, and maritime infrastructure to support Arctic shipping \r\ndevelopment (Heininen and Finger, 2017; AMAP, 2018; Drewniak \r\net al., 2018; Nilsson and Christensen, 2019). Without further action \r\nleading to adequate implementation of well-developed management \r\nplans and region-specific regulations, anticipated future increases in \r\nArctic shipping will pose a  greater risk to people and ecosystems \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 3d3fd304df6b91ae65a65ddf44935ec8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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content:
"The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has responsibility for \r\nthe safety and security of shipping and the prevention of marine and \r\natmospheric pollution by ships, including in the Arctic and Antarctic. \r\nThere are a  number of mechanisms standardising regulation and \r\ngovernance, such as the International Convention for the Prevention \r\nof Pollution from Ships; the International Convention for the Safety \r\nof Life at Sea; the International Convention on Standards of Training, \r\nand the Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers, and the newly \r\nimplemented International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters, \r\nor Polar Code (IMO, 2017)."


id: 927002ce8af95621c99368b42c87d938
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Many Arctic health adaptation efforts by governments have \r\nbeen groundwork actions, focused increasing awareness of the \r\nhealth impacts of climate change and conducting vulnerability \r\nassessments (Lesnikowski et al., 2011; Panic and Ford, 2013; Austin \r\net al., 2015). For instance, in Canada this effort has included training, \r\ninformation resources, frameworks, general outreach and education \r\nand dissemination of information to decision makers (Austin \r\net al., 2015). Finland's national adaptation strategy outlines various "


id: b9357aa42937a4b31b82a183a1bbf296
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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content:
"States can individually or cooperatively pursue the establishment of \r\nSpecial Areas and Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas at the IMO with \r\na view to protect ecologically unique or vulnerable and economically \r\nor culturally important areas in national and international waters \r\nfrom risks and impacts of shipping, including through routing, \r\ndischarge and equipment measures. Continued, and in some areas, \r\ngreater, international cooperation on shipping governance can "


id: 4d6cefff717c182cba9cb213d737b2f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10900
content:
"Table 3.4 |  Response of key human sectors /systems to climate change in polar regions. Table 3.4 summarises the consequences, interacting drivers, responses, and \r\nassets of climate change responses by select human sectors (i.e., social-ecological systems) of Arctic and Antarctic regions. Also noted are anticipated future conditions \r\nand level of certainty and other drivers of change that may interact with climate and affect outcomes. Implications to world demands on natural resources, innovation and \r\ndevelopment of technologies, population trends and economic growth are likely to affect all systems, as is the Paris Agreement (AMAP, 2017b). In several cases, drivers of \r\nchange interacting with climate change are regionally specific and not easily captured. In many cases there is limited information on human responses to climate change \r\nin the Russian Arctic."


id: 86dfaeae94f38ec2eead9b81f20de01d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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content:
"and processes of engagement that foster creative problem solving \r\nbe used. Furthermore, success of local government involvement \r\nin adaptation planning has been closely linked to transnational \r\nmunicipal networks that foster social learning and in which local \r\ngovernments assume a  role as key players (Sheppard et al., 2011; \r\nFunfgeld, 2015) (medium confidence). While transnational networks \r\ncan be a catalyst for action and promoting innovation, there remain \r\noutstanding challenges in measuring the effectiveness of these \r\nnetworks (Funfgeld, 2015). "


id: 7332d5d3e53bde841aacb33ca73a548
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17516
content:
"Responses to climate change at and across local, regional and \r\nnational levels occur directly and indirectly through a broad range \r\nof governance activities, such as land and sea use planning and \r\nregulations, economic development strategies, tax incentives for use \r\nof alternative energy technologies, permitting processes, resource \r\nmanagement and national security. Increasingly, climate change is \r\nconsidered in environmental assessments and proposals for resource \r\nplanning of polar regions. "


id: d43e3f9f26a5d1232cf1564aa4e70c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Adaptation through formal institutions by Indigenous people is \r\nenabled through self-government, land claims and co-management \r\ninstitutions (Baird et al., 2016; Huet et al., 2017). However, \r\norganisational capacity is often a  limiting factor in involvement \r\n(AHDR, 2014; Ford et al., 2014b; Forbes et al., 2015) (high confidence). \r\nInteractions across scales are also dependent on the extent to which \r\nvarious stakeholders are perceived as legitimate in their perceptions \r\nand recommendations, an issue related to the use of local knowledge \r\nand indigenous knowledge in governance (Cross-Chapter Box 4 in \r\nChapter  1) (AHDR, 2014; Ford et al., 2014b; Forbes et al., 2015) \r\n(high confidence). "


id: ddf50f4e7343f418b2aadb7453f34f7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36311
content:
"A comprehensive literature review of 157 discrete cases of Arctic \r\nadaptation initiatives by Ford et al. (2014b) found that adaptation \r\nis primarily local and motivated by reducing risks and their related \r\nvulnerabilities (high confidence). Several elements for successful \r\nclimate change adaptation planning at the local level have previously \r\nbeen identified: formal analytical models need to be relevant to \r\nthe concerns and needs of stakeholders, experts should be made \r\nsensitive to community perspectives, information should be packaged \r\nand communicated in ways that are accessible to non-experts "


id: 138674a4f2cd8b13628ec0af04c5ca04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 647
content:
"At a  more regional level, Alaska's 'Climate Action for Alaska' was \r\nreconstituted in 2017 and is now actively linking local concerns with \r\nstate-level policies and funding, as well as setting targets for future \r\nreductions in the state's carbon emission. The role of cross-scale \r\nboundary organisations in climate change adaptation planning, and \r\nhow central government initiatives can ultimately translate into \r\n'hybrid' forms of adaptation at the local level that allow for actions \r\nthat are sensitive to local communities has proven important in \r\nNorway (Dannevig and Aall, 2015). "


id: 11f7d5db5bb9e7a805dfd72147b1de8e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 351
content:
"2011; Koivurova, 2013; Prior, 2013; Shibata, 2015; Young, 2016) (high \r\nconfidence). Despite established cooperation in international polar \r\nregion governance, several authors have come to the conclusion \r\nthat the current international legal framework is inadequate when \r\napplying a  precautionary approach at the regional level (medium \r\nconfidence). For example, several studies have shown that the \r\nConvention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the \r\nNorth East Atlantic, which applies only to the North East Atlantic, and \r\nthat provides a framework for implementation of the United Nations \r\nConvention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Convention on \r\nBiological Diversity (CBD), are insufficient to deal with risks when \r\napplying a precautionary approach (Jakobsen, 2014; Hossain, 2015). "


id: 1f6465e9de911d0368e298a57c114451
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2725
content:
"At the national level, Norway, Sweden and Finland have engaged \r\nin the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT), \r\na  partnership that aims to support Europe in adapting to climate \r\nchange by helping users to access and share data and information on \r\nexpected climate change in Europe, current and future vulnerability \r\nof regions and sectors, national and transnational adaptation \r\nstrategies and actions, adaptation case studies and potential \r\nadaptation options, and tools that support adaptation planning. \r\nLevel of participation by country and the extent to which national \r\nlevel efforts are linked with regional and local adaptation varies. \r\nThe Canadian government's actions on climate change have been \r\namong the most extensive of the Arctic nations, including funding of \r\nArcticNet, a Network of Centres of Excellence, and consideration of \r\nclimate change by The Northern Contaminants and Nutrition North \r\nCanada programs. "


id: e47179abb00860cfa9b68b838defb4cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37482
content:
"The way states and institutions manage international cooperation on \r\nenvironmental governance is changing in response to climate change \r\nin the polar regions. Rather than treating regional impacts of climate \r\nchange and their governance in isolation (i.e., purely with a regional \r\nlens), the need to cooperate in a  global multi-regulatory fashion \r\nacross several levels of governance is increasingly realised (Stokke, \r\n2009; Cassotta et al., 2016) (medium confidence)."


id: 273fab6f2f041dd9aba50410eddc86de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4072
content:
"International cooperation on issues related to climate change in \r\nthe Arctic mainly occurs at the Arctic Council (herein 'the Council'), \r\nand consequently in important areas of its mandate: the (marine) \r\nenvironment and scientific research (Morgera and Kulovesi, 2016; Tesar \r\net al., 2016a; Wehrmann, 2016; Young, 2016). The Council is composed \r\nof eight Arctic States and six Permanent Participants representing \r\norganisations of Arctic Indigenous peoples. Observers status is open "


id: 4f841a44a0bf791490bec71893275594
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11276
content:
"The Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties, through the Committee \r\nfor Environmental Protection (CEP) and its Subsidiary Group of \r\nthe Committee for Environmental Protection on Climate Change \r\nResponse, continue to work closely with the Scientific Committee on \r\nAntarctic Research, the Council of Managers of National Antarctic \r\nPrograms, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators \r\nand other NGOs to understand, mitigate and adapt to impacts \r\nassociated with changes to the Southern Ocean and Antarctic \r\ncryosphere. Understanding, mitigating and adapting to climate \r\nchange are among the key priorities identified for research in the \r\nregion (Kennicutt et al., 2014a; Kennicutt et al., 2014b) and nationally \r\nfunded bilateral and multilateral projects are underway. "


id: 515826ae264b80857772f0d2bf1aef3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11590
content:
"Several studies show that informal actors of the Arctic can influence \r\ndecision making process of the Council and shift the Council towards \r\nmore cooperation with different actors to enhance the co-production \r\nof knowledge (Duyck, 2011; Makki, 2012; Keil and Knecht, 2017). \r\nRecently, non-state observers at the Council, such as the World Wide \r\nFund for Nature and the Circumpolar Conservation Union have \r\nplayed a role in raising awareness on climate change responses and \r\ncontributing to the work of the Council's Working Groups and Expert \r\nGroups (Keil and Knecht, 2017). "


id: 1db42ed00384823240941730c5d9c734
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2411
content:
"Several studies have shown that the Council has the potential to \r\nenhance internal coherence in the current, fragmented landscape \r\nof multi-regulatory governance by providing integrated leadership. \r\nHowever, it is about as likely as not that the Council could play a strong \r\nrole in combatting global climate problems and operating successfully \r\nwithin the climate transnational context unless it goes through \r\nrestructuring and reconfiguration (Stokke, 2013; Baker and Yeager, \r\n2015; Pincus and Speth, 2015; Cassotta et al., 2016; Tesar et al., 2016a; \r\nWehrmann, 2016; Young, 2016; Koivurova and Caddell, 2018). "


id: 839ecd0f920bc95377ec2a952d886e06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20303
content:
"Within the Antarctic Treaty System, several non-state actors play \r\na major role in providing advice and influencing the governance of \r\nAntarctica and the Southern Ocean. Among the most prominent actors \r\nare formal observers such as the Scientific Committee on Antarctic \r\nResearch, and invited experts such as the International Association \r\nof Antarctica Tour Operators and the Antarctic and Southern Ocean \r\nCoalition. At meetings of CCAMLR, the Scientific Committee's 2009 \r\nreport on Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (Turner \r\net al., 2009) precipitated an Antarctic Treaty Meeting of Experts on "


id: d8a27d937d46adf1b4b5bcf473a1cdb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35406
content:
"The future of the governance of the changing Arctic Ocean, including \r\nthe role of the Council will also depend on the implications of the \r\ndevelopment for a new agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable \r\nuse of Marine Biodiversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdictions under \r\nthe UNCLOS (Baker and Yeager, 2015; De Lucia, 2017; Nengye et al., \r\n2017; Koivurova and Caddell, 2018) (medium confidence)."


id: edd4d8284b8cd0024fb255bac11d8cec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39203
content:
"Table 3.5 |  Summary of the assessment of practices, tools and strategies that can contribute to climate resilient pathways. Practices are shown with the potential extent of \r\ntheir contribution to resilience building, considering also seven general strategies (Biggs et al., 2012; Quinlan et al., 2016; Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1). Also shown \r\nis the current level of their application in polar regions and key conditions facilitating implementation."


id: c4c8ed793291834b989b4e7cf37eaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31937
content:
"Climate Change in 2010 (Antarctic Treaty Meeting of Experts, 2010). \r\nThe outcomes of the meeting led the Antarctic Treaty's Committee \r\nfor Environmental Protection to develop a Climate Change Response \r\nWork Programme (ATCM, 2017)."


id: 10bcca36d2d78ef5ac21101cbf0836fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 124
content:
"sufficient utility to merit further use (ARR, 2016; AMAP, 2017a; AMAP, \r\n2017b; AMAP, 2018) (high confidence). Some require more refinement \r\nwhile others are well developed. The following sections assess the \r\nextent to which these practices operationalise resilience-building \r\nthrough knowledge co-production, the linking of knowledge with \r\ndecision making, and implementation of resilience-based ecosystem \r\nmanagement, considering also their application level and key \r\nfacilitating conditions; a summary is presented in Table 3.5."


id: e493c4d9860e2d294ed0299e985a09d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37500
content:
"This section presents the status of practices, tools and strategies \r\ncurrently employed in the Arctic and or Antarctica that can potentially \r\ncontribute to climate resilient pathways. Seven general strategies for \r\nbuilding resilience have been recognised: i) maintain diversity and \r\nredundancy, ii) manage connectivity, iii) manage slow variables \r\nand feedbacks, iv) foster an understanding of social-ecological \r\nsystems as complex adaptive systems,  v) encourage learning \r\nand experimentation, vi) broaden participation, and vii) promote \r\npolycentric governance systems (Biggs et al., 2012; Quinlan et al., \r\n2016) (Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1)."


id: 99feb309aea46f8ac250f4310854aa50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24330
content:
"The co-production of knowledge and transdisciplinary research are \r\ncurrently contributing to the understanding of polar climate change \r\nthrough the use of a diversity of cultural, geographic, and disciplinary \r\nperspectives that provide a  holistic framing of problems and \r\npossible solutions (Miller and Wyborn, 2018; Robards et al., 2018) \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 61b90aefb8a97046ef981d15f5e8622a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14484
content:
"The practices listed below are not inclusive of the many \r\nresilience-building efforts underway in the polar regions. Those \r\ndescribed are well represented in the literature and have shown "


id: 4d0979047a799633aafc9b6bca7b0e3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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vector_id: 10826
content:
"(vs. only products) and mutual respect for cultural differences \r\n(Meadow et al., 2015; National Research Council, 2015; Petrov \r\net al., 2016) (high confidence). Knowledge co-production involving \r\nIndigenous peoples comes with its own set of challenges (Armitage \r\net al., 2011; Robards et al., 2018). While advancements have been \r\nmade, the practice of knowledge co-production would benefit from \r\nfurther experimentation and innovation in methodologies and better \r\ntraining of researchers (van der Hel, 2016; Vlasova and Volkov, 2016; \r\nBerkes, 2017) (medium confidence). Three aspects of knowledge \r\nco-production are highlighted below."


id: fc21b5ffce0e0ac7d734098a1eaac724
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41725
content:
"A limited number of studies have examined social regime shifts and \r\nfewer the feedbacks of social regimes shifts on ecosystems (Gerlach \r\net al., 2017). Future needs for advancing knowledge of regime shifts \r\ninclude: 1) continued and refined updating of details on past regimes \r\nshifts,  2) structured comparative analysis of these phenomena to \r\nascertain common patterns and variation,  3) greater investment in \r\nresearch resources on potential large-scale regime shifts, and 4) great \r\nattention on how social and economic change may affect ecosystems \r\n(ARR, 2016; Biggs et al., 2018)."


id: b2d3ec8cd23063bc778b5c1bd7412bd6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28698
content:
"Well-crafted and effectively communicated indicators of polar \r\ngeophysical, ecological and human systems have the potential to \r\nmake complex issues more easily understood by society, including \r\nlocal residents and policy makers seeking to assess the implication of \r\nclimate change (Petrov et al., 2016; Carson and Sommerkorn, 2017) \r\n(medium confidence). Having indicators of change is no guarantee \r\nthey will be used; access to information, awareness of changing \r\nconditions, and the motivation to act are also important (e.g., van der \r\nLinden et al., 2015)."


id: 8b126ef51eb5a7fe9f632785cbe6ef36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21633
content:
"Indicators of the state of polar geophysical systems, biodiversity, \r\necosystems and human well-being are monitored as part of polar \r\nprograms. For example, indicators are reported by the Arctic Council \r\nworking groups Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme and \r\nConservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (e.g.,  Odland et al., 2016; \r\nCAFF, 2017; Box et al., 2019), the International Arctic Social Science \r\nAssociation (e.g., AHDR, 2014), the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring \r\nProgramme (e.g., Reid et al., 2005) and the Southern Ocean Observing \r\nSystem (e.g., Meredith et al., 2013)."


id: f17587dcf59ce52f8a01ed3fc3e31bda
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39865
content:
"There is limited development of indicators of social-ecological \r\nresilience (Jarvis et al., 2013; Carson and Sommerkorn, 2017). As \r\nwell, indicators of human adaptive capacity are typically based on \r\nqualitative case studies with limited quantitative data, and thus \r\nhave limited comparability and generalisability (Ford and King, \r\n2013; Petrov et al., 2016; Berman et al., 2017) (high confidence). \r\nThe identification and on-going use of indicators of social-ecological \r\nresilience are theoretically best achieved through highly participatory \r\nprocesses that engage stakeholders of a locale, with those processes \r\npotentially resulting in self-reflection and actions that improve \r\nadaptive capacity (Quinlan et al., 2016; Carson and Sommerkorn, \r\n2017), however, this is untested empirically (low confidence)."


id: 852c5da14efac61439f8044f1dec2af4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20571
content:
"Regime shifts are especially important in polar regions where there \r\nare limited data and where rapid directional change suggests the \r\npossibility of crossing thresholds that may dramatically alter the \r\nflow of ecosystem services (ARR, 2016). Better understanding of the \r\nthresholds and dynamics of regime shifts (i.e., SES state changes) is \r\nespecially important for resilience building (ARR, 2016; Biggs et al., \r\n2018; Rocha et al., 2018) (high confidence). While polar regime shifts \r\nhave been documented (Biggs et al., 2018), most are poorly understood \r\nand rarely predictable (Rocha et al., 2018) (high confidence). \r\nMoreover, the focus on Arctic regime shifts to date has been on almost \r\nentirely on biophysical state changes that impact social systems. "


id: 9617de5b717b2ef5edb2fe1c5c3872b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23600
content:
"While there is a growing expectation in polar (and other) regions for \r\na  more deliberate strategy to link science with social learning and \r\npolicy making about climate change (and other matters) through \r\niterative interactions of researchers, managers and other stakeholders, \r\nmeeting that expectation is confounded by several deeply rooted \r\nissues (Armitage et al., 2011; ARR, 2016; Tesar et al., 2016b; Baztan \r\net al., 2017; Forbis Jr and Hayhoe, 2018) (medium confidence). "


id: 1cf7c01bd11cdf644197f2863f1c04fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2276
content:
"pathways (e.g.,  in Alaska, Ernst and van Riemsdijk, 2013; and in \r\nEurasian reindeer-herding systems, van Oort et al., 2015; Nilsson \r\net al., 2017) and interacting drivers of change (e.g., in Antarctica; \r\nLiggett et al., 2017). Scenario analysis proved helpful for stakeholders \r\nwith different expertise and perspectives to jointly develop scenarios \r\nto inform ecosystem-based management strategies and adaptation \r\noptions (e.g., in the Barents region; Nilsson et al., 2017; Planque et al., \r\n2019) and to identify research needs (e.g., in Alaska; Vargas-Moreno \r\net al., 2016), including informing and applying climate downscaling \r\nefforts (e.g., in Alaska; Ernst and van Riemsdijk, 2013)."


id: aaf3e24d198c5262d3256a64898f87c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27302
content:
"regions, scientists and policy makers often work in separate spheres \r\nof influence, tend to maintain different values, interests, concerns, \r\nresponsibilities and perspectives, and gain limited exposure to the \r\nother's knowledge system (see Liu et al., 2008; Armitage et al., \r\n2011). Information exchange flows unequally, as officials struggle \r\nwith information overload and proliferating institutional voices, \r\nand where local residents are mistrusting of scientists (Powledge, \r\n2012). Inherent tensions between science-based assessment and \r\ninterest-based policy, and many existing institutions often prevent \r\ndirect connectivity. Further, the longstanding science mandate \r\nto remain 'policy neutral' typically leads to norms of constrained \r\ninteraction (Neff, 2009) (high confidence). "


id: 29ebe899c85fc832fd39f67775aa0206
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4601
content:
"Participatory scenario analysis is a  quickly evolving and widely \r\nused practice in polar regions, and has proven particularly useful \r\nfor supporting climate adaptation at multiple scales when it uses \r\na  social-ecological perspective (ARR, 2016; AMAP, 2017a; Crepin \r\net al., 2017; Planque et al., 2019) (medium confidence). While there \r\nare technical dimensions in scenario analysis and planning (e.g., the \r\nbuilding of useful simulation models that capture and communicate \r\nnuanced social-ecological system dynamics such as long-fuse big \r\nbang processes, pathological dynamics, critical thresholds, and \r\nunforeseen processes (Crepin et al., 2017), there are also creative \r\naspects, such as the use of art to help in the visualisation of possible \r\nfuture (e.g., Planque et al., 2019)."


id: cc38212ea21b834c83a14242c3e683a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33251
content:
"Renewable resource management and biodiversity conservation that \r\nseek to maintain resources in historic levels and reduce uncertainty \r\nbefore taking action remains the dominant paradigm in polar regions \r\n(Chapin III et al., 2009; Forbes et al., 2015). The effectiveness of this \r\napproach, however, is increasingly challenged as the ranges and \r\npopulations of species and state of ecosystems are being affected "


id: eb8d55af82968e5df6bd65eba9debf6b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38810
content:
"Participatory scenario analysis has been applied to various problem \r\nareas related to climate change responses in the polar regions. \r\nApplications demonstrate the utility of the practice for identifying \r\npossible local futures that consider climate change or socioeconomic "


id: 7edf2ab2ffc9cd526e3e43ae80685977
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19478
content:
"expanding the terrestrial protected area network in Antarctica is \r\ndiscussed (Coetzee et al., 2017). The planning of protected area \r\nnetworks in polar regions is currently an active topic of international \r\ncollaboration in both polar regions (Arctic Council, 2015b; CCAMLR, \r\n2016a; Wenzel et al., 2016). Designating marine protected area \r\nnetworks contributes to achieving Sustainable Development Goal \r\n14 and the Aichi Targets of the CBD but is often contested due to \r\ncompeting interests for marine resources. "


id: e90c71a7625f3c459d4523cd41eb3593
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38359
content:
"by climate change (Chapin III et al., 2010; Chapin III et al., 2015). \r\nThree practices that build and maintain social-ecological resilience in \r\nthe face of climate change include Adaptive Ecosystem Governance, \r\nSpatial Planning for Biodiversity, and Linking Management of \r\nEcosystem Services with Human Livelihoods. "


id: f2b762e27fcc1a9df66267c74a482ab0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40103
content:
"This chapter has assessed the consequences of climate change in the \r\npolar regions in three sections, focusing on sea ice and the ocean \r\n(Section 3.2), glaciers and ice sheets (Section 3.3), and permafrost and \r\nsnow on land (Section 3.4). A systems approach was taken to assess \r\nindividual and interacting changes within and between these elements \r\nto consider consequences, impacts and risks for marine and terrestrial \r\necosystems and for people. Mapping on to those observed and \r\nprojected impacts, Section 3.5 assessed human responses to climate \r\nchange in the polar regions. This brief synopsis considers the chapter \r\nfindings across sections, and draws out three key assessment points \r\nthat inform global responses to polar ocean and cryosphere change."


id: 2a8c925d1d102a2968899eaf3d56491d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4713
content:
"Beyond this report, progress requires that future assessments \r\ndemonstrate increased confidence in various key aspects; this can be \r\nachieved by narrowing numerous gaps in knowledge. Some of the \r\ncritical ones, which are priorities for future initiatives, are outlined here."


id: 1c277a51985b5aca6e43e2647311a98f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2140
content:
"Loss of Arctic sea ice continues to add to global radiative forcing and \r\nhas the potential to influence mid-latitude weather on timescales of \r\nweeks to months (Section 3.2.1 Box 3.2), the Southern Ocean takes \r\nup a disproportionately high amount of atmospheric heat and carbon \r\n(Section 3.2.1), melting polar glaciers and the AIS and GIS contribute \r\nto observed and projected sea level rise long into the future \r\n(Sections 3.3.1, 3.3.2), and projected widespread disappearance of \r\npermafrost has the potential to accelerate global warming through \r\nthe release of carbon dioxide and methane (Sections 3.4.2, 3.4.3)."


id: 165389a36f3623ed040d6e6fc2bdac91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1146
content:
"Overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean is a  key factor that \r\ncontrols heat and carbon exchanges with the atmosphere, and hence \r\nglobal climate, however there are no direct measures of this and only \r\nsparse indirect indicators of how it may be changing. This is a critical \r\nweakness in sustained observations of the global ocean."


id: 44ea0f337ff9c41e6ba1bcdfe73a2926
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9354
content:
"Snow depth on sea ice is essentially unmeasured, limiting mass \r\nbalance estimates and ice thickness retrievals. Improved mechanistic \r\nunderstanding of the observed changes and trends in Antarctic sea \r\nice is required, notably the decadal increase and very recent rapid \r\nretreat. This has consequences for climate, ecosystems and fisheries; \r\nhowever, lack of understanding and poor model performance \r\ntranslates to very limited predictive skill. "


id: 4c10eaae5224854e9764b4d2f21a7de0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10644
content:
"Trends in snow water equivalent over Arctic land are inadequately \r\nknown, reducing confidence in assessments of snow's role in \r\nthe water cycle and in insulating the underlying permafrost. \r\nUnderstanding of precipitation in the polar regions is critically \r\nlimited by sparse observations, and there is a lack of understanding \r\nof the processes that drive regional variability in wetting/drying and \r\ngreening/browning of the Arctic land surface. There is inadequate \r\nknowledge concerning carbon dioxide and methane emissions from \r\nland and sub-sea permafrost. "


id: b124f4180b4802be06895e1ecfd8fd5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28390
content:
"There are clear regional gaps in knowledge of polar ecosystems and \r\nbiodiversity, and insufficient population estimates/trends for many \r\nkey species. Biodiversity projections are limited by key uncertainties \r\nregarding the potential for organisms to adapt to habitat change \r\nand the resilience of foodweb structures. Relatedly, knowledge gaps \r\nexist concerning how fisheries target levels will change alongside \r\nenvironmental change and how to incorporate this into decision \r\nmaking. Similarly, there are knowledge gaps on the extent to which \r\nchanges in the availability of resources to subsistence harvesters \r\naffects food security of households. "


id: b3c7a047d7831f5d46e5bed8dec2cb7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28872
content:
"There is a need to better understand the evolution of polar glaciers \r\nand ice sheets, and their influences on global sea level. Longer and \r\nimproved quantifications of their changes are required, especially \r\nwhere mass losses are greatest, and (relatedly) better attribution of \r\nnatural versus anthropogenic drivers. Better understanding of the \r\nsensitivity of Antarctica to marine ice sheet instability is required, \r\nand whether recent changes in West Antarctica represent the onset \r\nof irreversible change."


id: ea6333aea754ef1a8dd21d146d4c3fa2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38597
content:
"There are critical gaps in knowledge concerning interactions between \r\nthe atmosphere and specific elements of the polar ocean and \r\ncryosphere. Detailed assessment of atmospheric processes was outside \r\nthe remit of this chapter, however such gaps limit understanding of \r\nongoing and future trajectories of the polar regions and their climate \r\nsystems. Relatedly, there is a paucity of studies analysing differences "


id: 6ac5296b367e2e893969cdf16d4b431c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16066
content:
"in the trajectories of polar cryosphere and ocean systems between low \r\nand very low greenhouse gas emission scenarios."


id: 436c6add6d0aedcbab6d8e078ccc4b81
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9081
content:
"resilience into decision making and governance is limited. There is \r\nlimited understanding concerning the resources that are needed \r\nfor successful adaptation responses and about the effectiveness of \r\ninstitutions in supporting adaptation. While the occurrence of regime \r\nshifts in polar systems is both documented and anticipated, there is \r\nlittle or no understanding of their preconditions or of indicators that \r\nwould help pre-empt them."


id: 9725855144e98dd0167462691dcd2dc5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23784
content:
"There are critical needs to better understand the efficacy and limits \r\nof strategies for reducing risk and strengthening resilience for polar \r\necosystems and people, including the contribution of practices and \r\ntools to contribute to climate resilient pathways. Knowledge on how \r\nto translate existing theoretical understandings of social-ecological "


id: 614e3de3e46c114ba6792ba5ebf47847
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14420
content:
"Climate change in the Arctic and Antarctic affect people outside of the polar regions in two key ways. First, physical and \r\necosystem changes in the polar regions have socioeconomic impacts that extend across the globe. Second, physical changes in \r\nthe Arctic and Antarctic influence processes that are important for global climate and sea level."


id: 2b632427a1d7879fd2f22a19c0217e89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4880
content:
"Among the risks to societies and economies, aspects of food provision, transport and access to non-renewable \r\nresources are of great importance. Fisheries in the polar oceans support regional and global food security and \r\nare important for the economies of many countries around the world, but climate change alters Arctic and \r\nAntarctic marine habitats, and affects the ability of polar species and ecosystems to withstand or adapt to \r\nphysical changes. This has consequences for where, when, and how many fish can be captured. Impacts will \r\nvary between regions, depending on the degree of climate change and the effectiveness of human responses. \r\nWhile management in some polar fisheries is among the most developed, scientists are exploring modifications \r\nto existing precautionary, ecosystem-based management approaches to increase the scope for adaptation to \r\nclimate change impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries."


id: d8f555d4a596df6697f1f5eac6f32b53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35465
content:
"New shipping routes through the Arctic offer cost savings because they are shorter than traditional passages \r\nvia the Suez or Panama Canals. Ship traffic has already increased and is projected to become more feasible \r\nin the coming decades as further reductions in sea ice cover make Arctic routes more accessible. Increased \r\nArctic shipping has significant socioeconomic and political implications for global trade, northern nations and \r\neconomies strongly linked to traditional shipping corridors, while also increasing environmental risk in the Arctic. \r\nReduced Arctic sea ice cover allows greater access to offshore petroleum resources and ports supporting resource \r\nextraction on land."


id: a510483a0d572fe146dedfa69fdd0b14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26267
content:
"The polar regions influence the global climate through a number of processes. As spring snow and summer sea \r\nice cover decrease, more heat is absorbed at the surface. There is growing evidence that ongoing changes in \r\nthe Arctic, primarily sea ice loss, can potentially influence mid-latitude weather. As temperatures increase in the \r\nArctic, permafrost soils in northern regions store less carbon. The release of carbon dioxide and methane from \r\nthe land to the atmosphere further contributes to global warming."


id: 4d2aa0adf04fc36fb41b5382621fc199
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10852
content:
"Melting ice sheets and glaciers in the polar regions cause sea levels to rise, affecting coastal regions and their \r\nlarge populations and economies. At present, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and polar glaciers are contributing \r\nmore to sea level rise than the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). However, ice loss from the AIS has continued to accelerate, \r\ndriven primarily by increased melting of the underside of floating ice shelves, which has caused glaciers to flow \r\nfaster. Even though it remains difficult to project the amount of ice loss from Antarctica after the second half of \r\nthe 21st century, it is expected to contribute significantly to future sea level rise."


id: 9c28d6361bab27948ffde4dbdc57e1d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24731
content:
"The Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica is the main region globally where waters at depth rise to the \r\nsurface. Here, they become transformed into cold, dense waters that sink back to the deep ocean, storing \r\nsignificant amounts of human-produced heat and dissolved carbon for decades to centuries or longer, and \r\nhelping to slow the rate of global warming in the atmosphere. Future changes in the strength of this ocean \r\ncirculation can so far only be projected with limited certainty."


id: 230ebf0166684156f32fdddb2da70986
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3361
content:
"Alexandra Lavrillier (France), Andrey Petrov (USA/Russia), Jon Rosales \r\n(USA), Florian Stammler (Finland), Hiroki Takakura (Japan), Wilbert \r\nvan Rooij (Netherlands), Brent Wolfe (Canada), Torre Jorgenson \r\n(USA). Laura Gerrish (UK) is thanked for help with figure preparation."


id: 998e00a6d73785ee580cf12ccdb7a5a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24247
content:
"Coordinating Lead Authors: \r\nMichael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce C. Glavovic (New Zealand/South Africa)"


id: 405196b546baa0ccddd2263c6819b4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8508
content:
"Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands), Alexandre K. Magnan (France), \r\nAmro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), \r\nRobert  M. DeConto (USA), Tuhin Ghosh (India), John Hay (Cook Islands), Federico Isla \r\n(Argentina), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Zita Sebesvari \r\n(Hungary/Germany) "


id: 627fe5c4785b84ff0c2586d6b6614aa2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14616
content:
"Robbert Biesbroek (Netherlands), Maya K. Buchanan (USA), Ricardo Safra de Campos (UK), \r\nGoneri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues (Australia), Sonke Dangendorf (Germany), \r\nPetra Doll (Germany), Virginie K.E. Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Alexey  Ekaykin \r\n(Russian  Federation), Donald Forbes (Canada), James Ford (UK), Miguel D. Fortes \r\n(Philippines), Thomas Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Robert Kopp \r\n(USA), Erwin  Lambert (Netherlands), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand), Andrew Mackintosh \r\n(New  Zealand), Angelique Melet (France), Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), \r\nSiddharth Narayan (US), Robert J. Nicholls (UK), Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), \r\nAJ Smit (South Africa), Catherine Sutherland (South Africa), Nguyen Minh Tu (Vietnam), \r\nJon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Siyuan Xian (USA)"


id: 962d59c4468a9bdb765f11e23659dd4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23618
content:
"Oppenheimer, M., B.C. Glavovic , J. Hinkel, R. van de Wal, A.K. Magnan, A. Abd-Elgawad, R. Cai, M. Cifuentes-Jara, R.M. \r\nDeConto, T. Ghosh, J. Hay, F. Isla, B. Marzeion, B. Meyssignac, and Z. Sebesvari, 2019: Sea Level Rise and Implications \r\nfor Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing \r\nClimate [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, \r\nM. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New \r\nYork, NY, USA, pp. 321-445. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.006. "


id: 6b9dc51ce42e5316404a1a9231be9337
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16237
content:
"low-lying coastal areas more broadly, human-induced changes can \r\nbe rapid and modify coastlines over short periods of time, outpacing \r\nthe effects of SLR (high confidence). Adaptation can be undertaken in \r\nthe short- to medium-term by targeting local drivers of exposure and \r\nvulnerability, notwithstanding uncertainty about local SLR impacts \r\nin coming decades and beyond (high confidence). {4.2.2.4, 4.3.1, \r\n4.3.2.2, 4.3.2.3}"


id: efcf95919157db1bfb1bf609e3c9f814
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39578
content:
"This chapter assesses past and future contributions to global, regional \r\nand extreme sea level changes, associated risk to low-lying islands, \r\ncoasts, cities, and settlements, and response options and pathways to \r\nresilience and sustainable development along the coast."


id: cbe5927beca70f86b6da4e7fe0e0ad8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33198
content:
"Global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising (virtually certain1) \r\nand accelerating (high confidence2\r\n). The sum of glacier and \r\nice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of GMSL \r\nrise (very high confidence). GMSL from tide gauges and altimetry \r\nobservations increased from 1.4 mm yr-1 over the period 1901-1990 \r\nto 2.1  mm yr-1 over the period 1970-2015 to 3.2  mm yr-1 over \r\nthe period 1993-2015 to 3.6 mm yr-1 over the period 2006-2015 \r\n(high confidence). The dominant cause of GMSL rise since 1970 is \r\nanthropogenic forcing (high confidence). {4.2.2.1.1, 4.2.2.2}"


id: 3573750e8f6b86518e79637853a4e703
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6650
content:
"Coastal risk is dynamic and increased by widely observed \r\nchanges in coastal infrastructure, community livelihoods, \r\nagriculture and habitability (high confidence). As with coastal \r\necosystems, attribution of observed changes and associated \r\nrisk to SLR remains challenging. Drivers and processes inhibiting \r\nattribution include demographic, resource and land use changes and \r\nanthropogenic subsidence. {4.3.3, 4.3.4}"


id: 950db737b72e3239e5ebdf8538c1070c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23429
content:
"A diversity of adaptation responses to coastal impacts \r\nand risks have been implemented around the world, but \r\nmostly as a reaction to current coastal risk or experienced \r\ndisasters (high confidence). Hard coastal protection measures \r\n(dikes, embankments, sea walls and surge barriers) are widespread, \r\nproviding predictable levels of safety in northwest Europe, East \r\nAsia, and around many coastal cities and deltas. Ecosystem-based \r\nadaptation (EbA) is continuing to gain traction worldwide, providing \r\nmultiple co-benefits, but there is still low agreement on its cost and \r\nlong-term effectiveness. Advance, which refers to the creation of \r\nnew land by building into the sea (e.g., land reclamation), has a long \r\nhistory in most areas where there are dense coastal populations.\r\nAccommodation measures, such as early warning systems (EWS) for \r\nESL events, are widespread. Retreat is observed but largely restricted "


id: beaa2f07b14e8a17c1c7733fd8a43305
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30809
content:
"Non-climatic anthropogenic drivers, including recent \r\nand historical demographic and settlement trends and \r\nanthropogenic subsidence, have played an important role \r\nin increasing low-lying coastal communities' exposure and \r\nvulnerability to SLR and extreme sea level (ESL) events (very \r\nhigh confidence). In coastal deltas, for example, these drivers have \r\naltered freshwater and sediment availability (high confidence). In "


id: 3d1d765f82c599a19d2a1af6664d02e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7935
content:
"local processes is critical for projections of sea level impacts at local \r\nscales (high confidence). {4.2.1.6, 4.2.2.4}"


id: c450241b3e00c4e24ed45dc20d21152
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31827
content:
"to small communities or carried out for the purpose of creating new \r\nwetland habitat. {4.4.2.3, 4.4.2.4, 4.4.2.5}"


id: 3729d76a76dd85db4f2470da5cb8126
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6922
content:
"Due to projected GMSL rise, ESLs that are historically rare (for \r\nexample, today's hundred-year event) will become common \r\nby 2100 under all RCPs (high confidence). Many low-lying cities \r\nand small islands at most latitudes will experience such events \r\nannually by 2050. Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation envisioned in \r\nlow-emission scenarios (e.g., RCP2.6) is expected to sharply reduce \r\nbut not eliminate risk to low-lying coasts and islands from SLR and \r\nESL events. Low-emission scenarios lead to slower rates of SLR \r\nand allow for a wider range of adaptation options. For the first half \r\nof the 21st century differences in ESL events among the scenarios are \r\nsmall, facilitating adaptation planning. {4.2.2.5, 4.2.3.4}"


id: a21a89c4ce24d5677aec10e85dccdab1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25753
content:
"Non-climatic anthropogenic drivers will continue to increase \r\nthe exposure and vulnerability of coastal communities to future \r\nSLR and ESL events in the absence of major adaptation efforts \r\ncompared to today (high confidence). {4.3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 9}"


id: e1f1f844b97e5418d0e16a78cb9356d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37035
content:
"The expected impacts of SLR on coastal ecosystems over \r\nthe course of the century include habitat contraction, loss \r\nof functionality and biodiversity, and lateral and inland \r\nmigration. Impacts will be exacerbated in cases of land \r\nreclamation and where anthropogenic barriers prevent inland \r\nmigration of marshes and mangroves and limit the availability \r\nand relocation of sediment (high confidence). Under favourable \r\nconditions, marshes and mangroves have been found to keep pace \r\nwith fast rates of SLR (e.g., >10 mm yr-1), but this capacity varies \r\nsignificantly depending on factors such as wave exposure of the \r\nlocation, tidal range, sediment trapping, overall sediment availability \r\nand coastal squeeze (high confidence). {4.3.3.5.1}"


id: bfa7cf7741b1f6580641454cef575e71
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30992
content:
"Under RCP8.5, the rate of SLR will be 15 mm yr-1 (10-20 mm yr-1, \r\nlikely range) in 2100, and could exceed several cm yr-1 in the \r\n22nd century. These high rates challenge the implementation of \r\nadaptation measures that involve a long lead time, but this has not \r\nyet been studied in detail. {4.2.3.2, 4.4.2.2.3}"


id: c8fde4dc159d8ac068202f263014f7f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32681
content:
"Processes controlling the timing of future ice shelf loss and \r\nthe spatial extent of ice sheet instabilities could increase \r\nAntarctica's contribution to SLR to values higher than \r\nthe likely range on century and longer time scales (low \r\nconfidence). Evolution of the AIS beyond the end of the 21st century \r\nis characterized by deep uncertainty as ice sheet models lack realistic \r\nrepresentations of some of the underlying physical processes. The \r\nfew model studies available addressing time scales of centuries to \r\nmillennia indicate multi-metre (2.3-5.4 m) rise in sea level for RCP8.5 \r\n(low confidence). There is low confidence in threshold temperatures \r\nfor ice sheet instabilities and the rates of GMSL rise they can produce. \r\n{Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, \r\nand Sections 4.1, 4.2.3.1.1, 4.2.3.1.2, 4.2.3.6}"


id: 86c97e1a3e5425fc39c630af94059d7e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20880
content:
"Sea level rise is not globally uniform and varies regionally. \r\nThermal expansion, ocean dynamics and land ice loss \r\ncontributions will generate regional departures of about +-30% \r\naround the GMSL rise. Differences from the global mean can be \r\ngreater than +-30% in areas of rapid vertical land movements, \r\nincluding those caused by local anthropogenic factors such as \r\ngroundwater extraction (high confidence). Subsidence caused by \r\nhuman activities is currently the most important cause of relative sea \r\nlevel rise (RSL) change in many delta regions. While the comparative \r\nimportance of climate-driven RSL rise will increase over time, these \r\nfindings on anthropogenic subsidence imply that a consideration of "


id: e8d71dd132828f58f02501ea6c39718
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38316
content:
"Risk related to SLR (including erosion, flooding and \r\nsalinisation) is expected to significantly increase by the end of \r\nthis century along all low-lying coasts in the absence of major \r\nadditional adaptation efforts (very high confidence). While \r\nonly urban atoll islands and some Arctic communities are expected \r\nto experience moderate to high risk relative to today in a low \r\nemission pathway, almost high to very high risks are expected in all "


id: 11f398d6bf47507eb92263fd70f042df
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 347
content:
"low-lying coastal settings at the upper end of the likely range for high \r\nemission pathways (medium confidence). However,  the transition \r\nfrom moderate to high and from high to very high risk will vary from \r\none coastal setting to another (high confidence). While a slower \r\nrate of SLR enables greater opportunities for adapting, adaptation \r\nbenefits are also expected to vary between coastal settings. Although \r\nambitious adaptation will not necessarily eradicate end-century SLR \r\nrisk (medium confidence), it will help to buy time in many locations \r\nand therefore help to lay a robust foundation for adaptation beyond \r\n2100. {4.1.3, 4.3.4, Box 4.1, SM4.2}"


id: 9d2035ac78604a4108bb84bf0cdff9fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24879
content:
"lack of resources, vexing trade-offs between safety, conservation and \r\neconomic development, multiple ways of framing the 'sea level rise \r\nproblem', power relations, and various coastal stakeholders having \r\nconflicting interests in the future development of heavily used coastal \r\nzones (high confidence). {4.4.2, 4.4.3}"


id: bb9cc54d5e1a86c7a26a741eae6d7845
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30233
content:
"All types of responses to SLR, including protection, \r\naccommodation, EbA, advance and retreat, have important \r\nand synergistic roles to play in an integrated and sequenced \r\nresponse to SLR (high confidence). Hard protection and advance \r\n(building into the sea) are economically efficient in most urban \r\ncontexts facing land scarcity (high confidence), but can lead to \r\nincreased exposure in the long term. Where sufficient space is \r\navailable, EbA can both reduce coastal risks and provide multiple \r\nother benefits (medium confidence). Accommodation such as flood \r\nproofing buildings and EWS for ESL events are often both low-cost and \r\nhighly cost-efficient in all contexts (high confidence). Where coastal \r\nrisks are already high, and population size and density are low, or in \r\nthe aftermath of a coastal disaster, retreat may be especially effective, \r\nalbeit socially, culturally and politically challenging. {4.4.2.2, 4.4.2.3, \r\n4.4.2.4, 4.4.2.5, 4.4.2.6, 4.4.3}"


id: 519e8a13abfbdcf6c221ed9fafaa9838
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11638
content:
"Achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals \r\n(SDGs) and charting Climate Resilient Development Pathways \r\ndepends in part on ambitious and sustained mitigation \r\nefforts to contain SLR coupled with effective adaptation \r\nactions to reduce SLR impacts and risk (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement)."


id: d9bc654ea90df39064dd0a44e4ec9f57
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35602
content:
"Choosing and implementing responses to SLR presents society \r\nwith profound governance challenges and difficult social choices, \r\nwhich are inherently political and value laden (high confidence). \r\nThe large uncertainties about post 2050 SLR, and the substantial \r\nimpact expected, challenge established planning and decision \r\nmaking practises and introduce the need for coordination within and \r\nbetween governance levels and policy domains. SLR responses also \r\nraise equity concerns about marginalising those most vulnerable and \r\ncould potentially spark or compound social conflict (high confidence). \r\nChoosing and implementing responses is further challenged through a "


id: 1cc2b0bccecf27f672c3cc22e021466a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2243
content:
"with choosing and implementing responses. Next, planning, \r\npublic participation, conflict resolution and decision analysis \r\nmethods for addressing the identified governance challenges are \r\nassessed, as well as practical lessons learned in local cases."


id: ea19f80dd3aa6fe4066292b47a4b0cec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38538
content:
"This chapter assesses the literature published since the AR5 on \r\npast and future contributions to global, regional and ESL changes, \r\nassociated risk to low-lying islands, coasts, cities and settlements, \r\nand response options and pathways to resilience and sustainable \r\ndevelopment along the coast. The chapter follows the risk framework \r\nof AR5, in which risk is assessed in terms of hazard, exposure and \r\nvulnerability (Cross-Chapter Box  1 Chapter  1; Box  4.1), and is \r\nstructured as follows (Figure 4.1):"


id: fc9626846a7698a4329cde1308326e6a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41808
content:
"likely range) under RCP 8.5 by 2100 (Figure 4.3). The range that needs \r\nto be considered for planning and implementing coastal responses \r\ndepends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders (i.e.,  those deciding \r\nand those affected by a decision; 4.4.4.3.2). Stakeholders that are risk \r\ntolerant (e.g., those planning for investments that can be very easily \r\nadapted to unforeseen conditions) may prefer to use the likely ranges \r\nof RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for long-term adaptation planning. Stakeholders \r\nwith a low risk tolerance (e.g., those planning for coastal safety in cities \r\nand long term investment in critical infrastructure) may also consider \r\nSLR above this range, because there is a 17% chance that GMSL \r\nwill exceed 0.59 m under RCP2.6 and 1.10 m under RCP8.5 in 2100. \r\nProcess-model based studies cannot yet provide this information, but \r\nexpert elicitation studies show that a GMSL of 2 m in 2100 cannot be \r\nruled out (4.2.3)."


id: 671a1fe75ba15574b5d4db01893d9036
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15413
content:
"and decision making is information on current and future ESL \r\nevents. One important response for preparing for future SLR is \r\nto improve observational systems (tide gauges, wave buoys and \r\nremote sensing techniques), because in many places around the \r\nworld current frequencies and intensities of ESL events are not \r\nwell understood due to a lack of observational data (4.2.3.4.1)."


id: d739ff64798947d73f2cf5fdb1ca56e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35175
content:
"Beyond 2050, uncertainty in climate change induced SLR increases \r\nsubstantially due to uncertainties in emission scenarios and the \r\nassociated climate changes, and the response of the AIS in a warmer \r\nworld. Combining process-model based studies in which there is medium \r\nconfidence, it is found that GMSL is projected to rise between 0.43 m \r\n(0.29-0.59 m, likely range) under RCP 2.6 and 0.84 m (0.61-1.10 m, "


id: 63f0d1d682a2cbd64fb42f50c65e5e21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14869
content:
"of development (Section 4.3.4; Figure 4.3; high confidence). In the \r\nabsence of an ambitious increase in adaptation efforts compared \r\nto those currently underway, high to very high risks are expected \r\nin many coastal geographies at the upper end of the RCP8.5 likely\r\nrange. These include resource-rich coastal cities, urban atoll islands, \r\ndensely populated deltas, and Arctic communities (Chapter 4 Box 4; \r\nFigure 4.3 and Section 4.3.4). At the same time coastal protection \r\nis very effective and cost-efficient for cities but not for less densely \r\npopulated rural areas. Some geographies, such as urban atoll \r\nislands and Arctic communities face moderate to high risk even \r\nunder RCP2.6 (medium confidence). "


id: f8554106213bbb0c4fa24eed4a98b37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41060
content:
"Beyond 2100, sea level will continue to rise for centuries and will \r\nremain elevated for thousands of years (high confidence; 4.2.3.5). \r\nOnly a few modelling studies are available for SLR beyond 2100. \r\nHowever, all studies agree that the difference in GMSL between \r\nRCP2.6 and RCP8.5 increases substantially on multi-centennial and \r\nmillennial time scales (very high confidence). On a millennial time \r\nscale, this difference is about 10 metres in some model simulations, \r\nwhereas it is only several decimetres at the end of 21st century. \r\nThe larger the emissions the larger the risks associated with SLR as \r\nalready assessed in SR1.5. Under RCP8.5 the few available studies \r\nindicate a likely range of 2.3-5.4 m (low confidence) in 2300. With \r\nstrong mitigation efforts (RCP2.6), SLR will be kept to a likely range \r\nof 0.6-1.1  m (Figure  4.2). Regardless, ambitious and sustained \r\nadaptation efforts are needed to reduce risks."


id: 376b913b847a3e51997a9a679aaeeaf4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6964
content:
"Rising mean and increasingly extreme sea level threaten coastal \r\nzones through a range of coastal hazards including (i) the permanent \r\nsubmergence of land by higher mean sea levels or mean high tides; \r\n(ii) more frequent or intense coastal flooding; (iii) enhanced coastal \r\nerosion; (iv) loss and change of coastal ecosystems; (v) salinisation \r\nof soils, ground and surface water; and (vi) impeded drainage. \r\nAt the century scale and without adaptation, the vast majority \r\nof low-lying islands, coasts and communities face substantial \r\nrisk from these coastal hazards, whether they are urban or rural, \r\ncontinental or island, at any latitude, and irrespective of their level "


id: 7d91d91fb9311cdbf8c796f0edcabac1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19264
content:
"Designing and implementing an appropriate mix of responses is not \r\nonly a technical task but also an inherently political and value-laden \r\nsocial choice that involves trade-offs between multiple values, goals \r\nand interests (Section 4.4.3). Specifically, distinctive features of SLR \r\ntogether with this complex nature of social choices give rise to five \r\noverarching governance challenges (Section 4.4.3.3):"


id: c705124f2939bfd8eb3618bf1c048c33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32328
content:
"Given diverse geographies and contexts (4.1.3), and the pros and \r\ncons of different responses, there is no silver bullet for responding to \r\nSLR. Rather, each coastal locality requires a tailor-made response that \r\nuses an appropriate mix of measures, sequenced over time as sea \r\nlevel rises. Possible integrated response strategies are illustrated for \r\ntwo contrasting types of settlements: densely populated urban and \r\nsparsely populated rural coasts."


id: b180103020a1045b4d8e6a25c3744e35
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28450
content:
"lead to ESL events (see Figure 4.4). In this section, newly emerging \r\nunderstanding of these different episodic and gradual aspects of \r\nsea level change are assessed, within a context of sea level changes \r\nmeasured directly over the last century, and those inferred for longer \r\ngeological time scales. This longer-term perspective is important for \r\ncontextualising future projections of sea level and providing guidance \r\nfor process-based models of the individual components of SLR, in \r\nparticular the ice sheets. In addition, anthropogenic subsidence may \r\naffect local sea level substantially in many locations but this process \r\nis not taken into account in values reported here for projected SLR \r\nunless specifically noted."


id: 103508983ba1cf736348f7931db74ded
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38
content:
"The ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica contain most of the \r\nfresh water on the Earth's surface. As a consequence, they have the \r\ngreatest potential to cause changes in sea level. Figure 4.4 illustrates \r\nthe size of land ice reservoirs and the most important processes that \r\ndrive mass changes of ice sheets."


id: cf813b38aa6483cf60bcde42108f67c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33868
content:
"Ice sheets change sea level through the loss or gain of ice above \r\nflotation, defined as the ice thickness in exceedance of the smallest \r\nthickness that would remain in contact with the sea floor at \r\nhydrostatic equilibrium. The GIS is currently losing mass at roughly \r\ntwice the pace of the AIS (Table 4.1). However, Antarctica contains \r\neight times more ice above flotation than Greenland. Furthermore, \r\na substantial fraction of the AIS rests on bedrock below sea level, \r\nmaking the ice sheet responsive to changes in ocean-driven melt and \r\npossibly vulnerable to marine ice sheet instabilities (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 8 in Chapter 3) that can drive rapid mass loss."


id: ed0ffc19e9ba4e63a5dca4b885d643c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39077
content:
"In most places around the world, current annual mean rates of RSL \r\nchanges are typically on the order of a few mm yr-1 (see Figure 4.6). \r\nRisk associated with changing sea level also is related to individual \r\nevents that have a limited duration, superimposed on the background \r\nof these gradual changes. As a result, the gradual changes in time \r\nand space have to be assessed together with processes that lead \r\nto flooding and erosion events. These processes include storm \r\nsurges, waves and tides or a combination of these processes and "


id: 764495164dc4ca76af1b1ab53637213
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18026
content:
"Global sea level changes are also affected by changes in terrestrial \r\nreservoirs of liquid water. Withdrawal of groundwater and storage \r\nof fresh water through dam construction (Chao et al., 2008; Fiedler \r\nand Conrad, 2010) in the earlier parts of the 20th century dominated, \r\nleading to sea level fall, but in recent decades, land water depletion \r\ndue to domestic, agricultural and industrial usage has begun to \r\ncontribute to sea level change (Wada et al., 2017). Changes in \r\nterrestrial reservoirs may also be related to climate variability: in \r\nparticular, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong \r\nimpact on precipitation distribution and temporary storage of water \r\non continents (Boening et al., 2012; Cazenave et al., 2012; Fasullo \r\net al., 2013)."


id: 8acc7381ceac13c0bc5c86ddaced3d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21591
content:
"Our understanding of ice sheets has progressed substantially since \r\nAR5, although deep uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1) \r\nremains with regard to their potential contribution to future SLR on \r\ntime scales longer than a century under any given emissions scenario. \r\nThis is particularly true for Antarctica."


id: b0eb87a80991e49a379922ea92e6a421
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28355
content:
"Glaciers outside of the GIS and AIS are important contributors to sea \r\nlevel change (Figure 4.4). Because of their specific accumulation and \r\nablation rates, which are often high compared to those of the ice \r\nsheets, they are sensitive indicators of climate change and respond \r\nquickly to changes in climate. Over the past century, glaciers have \r\nadded more mass to the ocean than the GIS and AIS combined \r\n(Gregory et al., 2013). However, the mass of glaciers is small by \r\ncomparison, equivalent to only 0.32 +- 0.08 m mean SLR if only the \r\nfraction of ice above sea level is considered (Farinotti et al., 2019). \r\nSections 2.2.3, 3.3.2 and Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2 provide a \r\ndetailed discussion of glacier response to climate change. "


id: c868818be2e33152acded5355659f1fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32564
content:
"Changing distributions of water mass between land, ice and ocean \r\nreservoirs cause nearly instantaneous changes in the Earth's gravity \r\nfield and rotation, and elastic deformation of the solid Earth. These \r\nprocesses combine to produce spatially varying patterns of sea level \r\nchange (Mitrovica et al., 2001; Mitrovica et al., 2011). For example, \r\nadjacent to an ice sheet losing mass, reduced gravitational attraction \r\nbetween the ice and nearby ocean causes RSL to fall, despite the rise \r\nin GMSL from the input of melt water to the ocean. The opposite \r\neffect is found far from the ice sheet, where RSL rise can be enhanced \r\nas much as 30% relative to the global average."


id: e885b38a14eb580fdd5c9ec40092b7da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38247
content:
"On time scales longer than the elastic Earth response, redistributions \r\nof water and ice cause time-dependent, visco-elastic deformation. This \r\nis observed in regions previously covered by ice during the Last Glacial \r\nMaximum (LGM), including much of Scandinavia and parts of North \r\nAmerica (Lambeck et al., 1998; Peltier, 2004), where glacio-isostatic "


id: b8414d775be5bc24534a4ce670885677
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29629
content:
"In general, increasing temperatures lead to a lower density ('thermal \r\nexpansion') and therefore the larger its volume per unit of mass. \r\nThus, warming leads to a higher sea level even when the ocean mass \r\nremains constant. Over at least the last 1500 years changes in sea level \r\nwere related to global mean temperatures (Kopp et al., 2016), partly "


id: 58c874cee28bd0c1ceb6e5d06b6e9901
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12862
content:
"and anthropogenic subsidence are used, and other components of VLM \r\nare ignored unless explicitly stated."


id: d75e2247edcac2a77eee8cf0b45a7399
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35192
content:
"Superimposed on gradual changes in RSL, as described in the previous \r\nsections, tides, storm surges, waves and other high-frequency \r\nprocesses (Figure 4.4) can be important. Understanding the localised \r\nimpact of such processes requires detailed knowledge of bathymetry, \r\nerosion and sedimentation, as well as a good description of the \r\ntemporal variability of the wind fields generating waves and storm \r\nsurges. The potential for compounding effects, like storm surge \r\nand high SLR, are of particular concern as they can contribute \r\nsignificantly to flooding risks and extreme events (Little et al., 2015a). \r\nThese processes can be captured by hydrodynamical models (see \r\nSection 4.2.3.4)."


id: b43d54168de7ac374f762ec48c99af83
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28943
content:
"VLM from tectonics and dynamic topography associated with viscous \r\nmantle processes also affect spatial patterns of relative sea level change. \r\nThese geological processes are important for reconstructing ancient \r\nsea levels based on geological indicators (Austermann and Mitrovica, \r\n2015; see SM4.1). Along with other natural and anthropogenic \r\nprocesses including volcanism, compaction, and anthropogenic \r\nsubsidence from ground water extraction (Section  4.2.2.4) these \r\ngeodynamic processes can be locally important, producing rates of \r\nVLM comparable to or greater than recent climate-driven rates of \r\nGMSL change (Woppelmann and Marcos, 2016). In this chapter, GIA "


id: 403cfadac289623480a5c4dbe72bae81
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8491
content:
"Sea level changes in the distant geologic past provide information \r\non the size of the ice sheets in climate states different from today. \r\nPast intervals with temperatures comparable to or warmer than \r\ntoday are of particular interest, and since AR5 (Masson-Delmotte \r\net al., 2013) they have been increasingly used to test and calibrate \r\nprocess-based ice sheet models used in future projections (DeConto \r\nand Pollard, 2016; Edwards et al., 2019; Golledge et al., 2019). These \r\nintervals include the mPWP around 3.3-3.0 Ma, when atmospheric \r\nCO2 concentrations were similar to today (~300-450 ppmv; Badger \r\net al., 2013; Martinez-Boti et al., 2015; Stap et al., 2016) and global "


id: bd3b7e013954053f905905678a96fd37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30542
content:
"Figure 4.4 | A schematic illustration of the climate and non-climate driven processes that can influence global, regional (green colours), relative and extreme sea lev\r\n(ESL) events (red colours) along coasts. Major ice processes are shown in purple and general terms in black. SLE stands for Sea Level Equivalent and reflects the increa\r\nn GMSL if the mentioned ice mass is melted completely and added to the ocean."


id: 8e1974fdb531330513138390a1f68b0d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22196
content:
"by Kopp et al. (2009) and found good agreement (7.5 +- 1.1 m likely \r\nrange) with Kopp et al. (2009) and Dutton et al. (2015a), but the \r\nupper range remains poorly constrained. Their estimates of peak LIG \r\nsea level are sensitive to the assumed ice history before and after the \r\nLIG, consistent with the results of other studies (Lambeck et al., 2012; \r\nDendy et al., 2017). Austermann et al. (2017) compared a compilation \r\nof LIG shoreline indicators with dynamic topography simulations. \r\nThey found that vertical surface motions driven by mantle convection \r\ncan produce several metres of uncertainty in LIG sea level estimates, \r\nbut their mean and most probable estimates of 6.7 m and 6.4 m are \r\nbroadly in line with other estimates. "


id: 155bc19d32cb531fa55fadac6c44b380
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 971
content:
"mean temperature was 2oC-4oC warmer than pre-industrial (Dutton \r\net al., 2015a; Haywood et al., 2016) and the LIG around 129-116 ka, \r\nwhen global mean temperature was 0.5oC-1.0oC warmer (Capron \r\net al., 2014; Dutton et al., 2015a; Fischer et al., 2018) and sea surface \r\ntemperatures were similar to today (Hoffman et al., 2017). Updated \r\nreconstructions of GMSL (Dutton et al., 2015a) based on ancient \r\nshoreline elevations corrected to account for geodynamic processes \r\n(4.2.1.5), and geochemical records extracted from marine sediment \r\ncores, indicate sea levels were >5 m higher than today during these \r\npast warm periods (medium confidence)."


id: 16e87e570b33272c0decca2dbc8d8b5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1250
content:
"GMSL during the LIG was at times higher than today (virtually certain), \r\nwith a likely range between 6-9 m, and not expected to be more \r\nthan 10  m (medium confidence). Due to ongoing uncertainties in \r\nthe evolution of atmospheric and oceanic warming over and around \r\nthe ice sheets, and low confidence in the relative contributions of \r\nAntarctic versus Greenland meltwater to GMSL change, the LIG \r\nis not used here to directly assess the sensitivity of the ice sheets \r\nunder current or future climate conditions. There is low confidence\r\nin the utility of changes in either mPWP or LIG sea level changes to \r\nquantitatively inform near-term future rates of GMSL rise."


id: c3cd121a866a49c3db3dbd178301ed40
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31722
content:
"An expanded summary of recent advances and ongoing difficulties \r\nin reconstructing these time periods in terms of climate, sea level, \r\nand implications for the future evolution of ice sheets and sea level \r\nis provided in SM4.1."


id: 76508ab429adc39427419a6de031f46f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18037
content:
"or settling of landfill in urban areas; Raucoules et al., 2013; Pfeffer \r\net al., 2017). When estimating the GMSL due to the ocean thermal \r\nexpansion and land ice melt, tide gauges must be corrected for this \r\nVLM, where VLM = GIA + anthropogenic subsidence + (tectonics, \r\nnatural subsidence). This is possible with stations of the Global \r\nPositioning System (GPS) network when they are co-located with \r\ntide gauges (Santamaria-Gomez et al., 2017; Kleinherenbrink et al., \r\n2018). However, this approach provides information on the VLM over \r\nthe past two to three decades and has limited value over longer time \r\nscales for places where the VLM has varied significantly through the \r\nlast century (Riva et al., 2017). "


id: 80966abe9c519e6b32783ebc6a85f7fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19750
content:
"Observational estimates of the sea level variations over past \r\nmillennia rely essentially on proxy-based regional relative sea \r\nlevel reconstructions corrected for GIA. Since AR5, the increasing \r\navailability of regional proxy-based reconstructions enables the \r\nestimation of GMSL change over the last ~3 kyr. The first statistical \r\nintegration of the available reconstructions shows that the GMSL \r\nexperienced variations of +-9 [+-7 to +-11] cm (5-95% uncertainty \r\nrange; Kopp et al., 2016) over the 2400 years preceding the 20th \r\ncentury (medium confidence). This is more tightly bound than the AR5 \r\nassessment which indicated a variability in GMSL that was <+-25 cm \r\nover the same period. This progress since AR5 confirms that it is \r\nvirtually certain that the mean rate of GMSL has increased during the \r\nlast two centuries from relatively low rates of change during the late \r\nHolocene (order tenths of mm yr-1) to modern rates (order mm yr-1; \r\nWoodruff et al., 2013)."


id: e78aee61440a97ebdb8f53b6e291605f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38046
content:
"The number of tide gauges has increased over time from only a few in \r\nnorthern Europe in the 18th century to more than 2000 today along \r\nthe world's coastlines. Because of their location and limited number, \r\ntide gauges sample the ocean sparsely and non-uniformly with a bias \r\ntowards the Northern Hemisphere. Most tide gauge records are short \r\nand have significant gaps. In addition, tide gauges are anchored \r\non land and are affected by the vertical motion of Earth's crust \r\ncaused by both natural processes (e.g., GIA, tectonics and sediment \r\ncompaction; Woppelmann and Marcos, 2016; Pfeffer et al., 2017) and \r\nanthropogenic activities (e.g., groundwater depletion, dam building "


id: 86151ce723d1ed07bc01c69845138153
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20734
content:
"The ocean thermal expansion is caused by excess heat being \r\nabsorbed by the ocean, as the climate warms. Thermal expansion is \r\nestimated from in situ ocean observations and ocean heat content \r\nreanalyses that rely on assimilation of data into numerical models \r\n(Storto et al., 2017; Sections 1.8.1.1 and 1.8.1.4; WCRP Global Sea \r\nLevel Budget Group, 2018). Full-depth, high-quality and unbiased \r\nocean temperature profile data with adequate metadata and \r\nspatio-temporal coverage are required to estimate thermal expansion \r\nand to understand drivers of variability and long-term change (Pfeffer \r\net al., 2018; Section 5.2.2.2.2)."


id: 48e8fc67a1d341826889fa63347d4d8a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10049
content:
"The different contributions to the GMSL rise are independently \r\nobserved over various time scales. They are compared with simulated \r\nestimates from climate model experiments of CMIP5 (Taylor et al., \r\n2012) when available (see Table 4.1). The observations are compared \r\nwith experiments beginning in the mid-19th century, forced with \r\npast time-dependent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric \r\ncomposition, natural forcings due to volcanic aerosols and variations \r\nin solar irradiance (Taylor et al., 2012). The objective is first, to assess \r\nunderstanding of the causes of observed sea level changes and \r\nsecond, to evaluate the ability of coupled climate models to simulate \r\nthese causes. It enables the evaluation of the confidence level there \r\nis in current coupled climate models that form the basis of future sea \r\nlevel projections. "


id: 639da046e6bb20db807dfd0aa094195a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14818
content:
"Coupled climate models simulate the historical thermal expansion \r\n(see Table  4.1). However, for models that omit the volcanic forcing \r\nin their control experiment, the imposition of the historical volcanic \r\nforcing during the 20th century results in a spurious time mean \r\nnegative forcing and a spurious persistent ocean cooling related to \r\nthe control climate (Gregory, 2010; Gregory et al., 2013). Since AR5, \r\nthe magnitude of this effect has been estimated from historical "


id: 189ec993408014dfb4e9fa86cb94cbe2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1549
content:
"Table 4.1 | Global mean sea level (GMSL) budget over different periods from observations and from climate model base contributions. All values are in mm yr-1. Values \r\nin brackets in 4.2 are uncertainties ranging from 5-95%. The climate model historical simulations end in 2005; projections for Representative Concentration Pathway \r\n(RCP)8.5 are used for 2006-2015. The modelled thermal expansion, glacier and ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) contributions are computed from the Coupled Model \r\nIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models as in Slangen et al. (2017b). For the model contributions, uncertainties are estimated from the spread of the ensemble of \r\nmodel simulations following Slangen et al. (2017b), see the footnotes for the details on the uncertainty propagation. GIS is Greenland Ice Sheet."


id: 5b0f9bf097e00578314ac296f6c03c5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13273
content:
"or have already melted during the 20th century is hard to constrain \r\n(Parkes and Marzeion, 2018), and there is low confidence in their \r\nestimated contribution. These glaciers are thus neglected in the \r\nassessment of the sea level budget (Table 4.1)."


id: 94f468820db5db4ab25dc8addebb4f25
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23410
content:
"While the agreement between the observational estimates of glacier \r\nmass changes and the modelled estimates from glacier models \r\nforced with climate model simulations has increased since AR5 \r\n(Slangen et al., 2017b), there is only medium confidence in the use of \r\nglacier models to reconstruct sea level change because of the limited \r\nnumber of well-observed glaciers available to evaluate models on \r\nlong time scales, and because of the small number of model-based \r\nglobal glacier reconstructions."


id: b2f17e3c1bf6e37f58c09b06939a4b66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28719
content:
"To assess the mass contribution of glaciers to sea level change, global \r\nestimates are required. Recent updates and temporal extensions of \r\nestimates obtained by different methods continue to provide very \r\nhigh confidence in continuing glacier mass loss on the global scale \r\nduring the past decade (Bamber et al., 2018; Wouters et al., 2019; \r\nZemp et al., 2019), see Section 2.2.3 and Appendix 2.A for a detailed \r\ndiscussion also on regional scales). Updates of the reconstructions \r\nof Cogley (2009), Leclercq et al. (2011) and Marzeion et al. (2012), \r\npresented and compared in Marzeion et al. (2015), show increased \r\nagreement on rates of mass loss during the entire 20th century \r\n(Marzeion et al., 2015), compared to earlier estimates reported by \r\nAR5. The contribution of glaciers that may be missing in inventories "


id: aeaf84b804f8741f1fb82014df1801bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27968
content:
"Here, the approach of Section  3.3.1 is followed, using the two \r\nmulti-method assessments from Bamber et al. (2018) and the IMBIE \r\nteam (2018) to evaluate the contribution of ice sheet mass loss to \r\nSLR over 1993-2015 and 2006-2015 (see Table  4.1). These two \r\nstudies agree with results from the WCRP Global Sea Level Budget \r\nGroup (2018). For the estimation of the AIS contribution, Bamber \r\net al. (2018) and the The IMBIE team (2018) use similar but not \r\nidentical data sources and processing. Both studies find consistent \r\nresults within uncertainties over both periods. In Table 4.1, the results \r\nof these two studies were averaged, and weighted the average on "


id: 9658e65dceb9c256761989cff3cb7ec5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23651
content:
"the basis of their uncertainties, because there is no apparent reason \r\nto discount either study. For the estimation of the GIS contribution \r\nonly the Bamber et al. (2018) estimate is used, as there is no other \r\nmulti-method assessment available."


id: 28828eb08b5802acd17f97b10c459123
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4333
content:
"Drawing on previous sections, the budget of GMSL rise (Table 4.1, \r\nFigure 4.5) is assessed with observations over 4 periods: 1901-1990 \r\n(which corresponds to the period in the 20th century that is prior \r\nto the increase in ice sheet contributions to GMSL rise), 1970-2015 \r\n(when ocean observations are sufficiently accurate to estimate the \r\nglobal ocean thermal expansion and when glacier mass balance \r\nreconstructions start), 1993-2015 (when precise satellite altimetry is "


id: c60b41575bf2565506d2ab2dfa424085
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32153
content:
"technique, which accounts for the regional variations in components \r\nof the Greenland SMB (Noel et al., 2015; Meyssignac et al., 2017a). \r\nIn addition, an updated groundwater extraction contribution from \r\nDoll et al. (2014) is now used for the land water storage contribution. "


id: 7da1ef346b50c5d62712db703a5874a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19276
content:
"sampling of ocean observations are not sufficient to estimate the \r\nglobal ocean thermal expansion. For these reasons, it is difficult to \r\nassess the closure of the GMSL rise budget over 1901-1990 and \r\n1970-2015 (Church et al., 2013; Gregory et al., 2013; Jevrejeva et al., \r\n2017; Meyssignac et al., 2017c; Slangen et al., 2017b; Parkes and \r\nMarzeion, 2018). For the period 1970-2015, the thermal expansion \r\nof the ocean represents 43% of the observed GMSL rise while the \r\nglaciers' contribution represents 22% (see Table  4.1). This result \r\nindicates a slightly smaller contribution from glaciers than reported \r\nby AR5. If the GIS contribution and the Antarctic SMB is added, then \r\nthe sum of the contributors to sea level is in agreement with the \r\nlow end observed SLR estimates over 1970-2015 (Frederikse et al., \r\n2018). This result suggests that the contribution of Antarctica ice \r\nsheet dynamics to SLR has been small, if any, before the 1990s."


id: c8fd77d1a90337672480f2f1fc95c6b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32680
content:
"For the periods 1970-2015, 1993-2015 and 2006-2015 the \r\nsimulated contributions from thermal expansion, glaciers mass loss \r\nand Greenland SMB explain respectively 84%, 81% and 77% of the \r\nobserved GMSL (see Table 4.1). For all these periods the residual is \r\nconsistent within uncertainty with the sum of the contribution from \r\nland water storage and ice discharge from Greenland and Antarctica. \r\nFor each period the consistency is improved compared to AR5 (see \r\nTable 4.1) although the uncertainty on the residual is slightly larger \r\nbecause of a larger uncertainty in simulated Glaciers and Greenland \r\nSMB contributions. "


id: 7c11c24fbc9480dedaf0936f3cf44e61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19036
content:
"Since AR5, extended simulations along with recent findings in \r\nobservations and improved model estimates allow for a new more \r\nrobust, consistent and comprehensive comparison between sea level \r\nestimates based on observations and climate model simulations \r\n(e.g.,  Meyssignac et al., 2017c; Slangen et al., 2017b; Parkes and \r\nMarzeion, 2018). Compared to AR5, the simulated thermal expansion \r\nfrom climate models has improved with a new correction for the \r\nvolcanic activity (see Section 4.2.2.2.1). The glacier contribution from \r\nglacier models forced with inputs from climate models is updated \r\nwith a new glacier inventory and improvements to the glacier mass \r\nbalance model (Marzeion et al., 2015). The simulated Greenland \r\nSMB is estimated with a new regional SMB-component downscaling "


id: beb3732a3699f64f5508cc91d31c6efd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30816
content:
"For the period 1901-1990 the simulated contributions from thermal \r\nexpansion, glaciers mass loss and Greenland SMB explain only 60% \r\nof the observed GMSL and the residual is too large to be explained \r\nby the sum of the contribution from land water storage and ice \r\ndischarge from Greenland and Antarctica. The gap can be explained \r\nby a bias in the simulated Greenland SMB and glacier ice loss around \r\nGreenland in the early 20th century (Slangen et al., 2017b). When \r\nthe glacier model and the Greenland SMB downscaling technique \r\nare forced with observed climate from atmospheric reanalyses, rather \r\nthan the simulated climate from coupled climate models, simulated \r\nSLR becomes consistent with the observed SLR (see the dashed blue "


id: 5fd249ca99229501643b84aece442738
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14166
content:
"line on Figure 4.5). This is because atmospheric reanalyses show an \r\nincrease in air temperatures in and around Greenland over the period \r\n1900-1940, which lead to increased melt in Greenland (Bjork et al., \r\n2012; Fettweis et al., 2017) and surrounding glaciers in the first half \r\nof the 20th century. This increase in air temperature over 1900-1940 \r\nis not reproduced by climate models (Slangen et al., 2017b). It may \r\nbe because this increase in air temperature was due to internal \r\nclimate variability on temporal and spatial scales that cannot be \r\nprecisely reproduced by climate models. It may also be due to a bias \r\nin atmospheric circulation in climate models (Fettweis et al., 2017), \r\nor an issue with the spatial pattern of the historical aerosol forcing."


id: 5416a7bdede4e66792b6f3092aff6f5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12070
content:
"atmosphere into the ocean are responsible for the total heat that \r\nenters the ocean and for the associated GMSL rise. At regional scale \r\nand local scale, both the ocean transport divergences caused by wind \r\nstress anomalies and the spatial variability in atmospheric heat fluxes \r\nare responsible for the spatial variability in thermal expansion and \r\nthus for most of the regional sea level departures around the GMSL \r\nrise (e.g., Stammer et al., 2013; Forget and Ponte, 2015)."


id: d6864744073e41a15be2eb7460a43be8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35051
content:
"In summary, the agreement between climate model simulations \r\nand observations of the global thermal expansion, glacier mass loss \r\nand Greenland SMB has improved compared to AR5 for periods \r\nstarting after 1970. However, for periods prior to 1970, significant \r\ndiscrepancies between climate models and observations arise \r\nfrom the inability of climate models to reproduce some observed \r\nregional changes in glacier and GIS SMB around the southern tip of \r\nGreenland. It is not clear whether this bias in climate models is due to \r\nthe internal variability of the climate system or deficiencies in climate \r\nmodels. For this reason, there is still medium confidence in the ability \r\nof climate models to simulate past and future changes in glaciers \r\nmass loss and Greenland SMB. "


id: 86533c5c9e531a2f4e88ff00a8f9cc2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20794
content:
"Sea level does not rise uniformly. Observations from tide gauges \r\nand satellite altimetry (Figure  4.6) indicate that sea level shows \r\nsubstantial regional variability at decadal to multi-decadal time \r\nscales (e.g.,  Carson et al., 2017; Hamlington et al., 2018). These \r\nregional changes are essentially due to changing winds, air-sea heat \r\nand freshwater fluxes, atmospheric pressure loading and the addition \r\nof melting ice into the ocean, which alters the ocean circulation \r\n(Stammer et al., 2013; Forget and Ponte, 2015; Meyssignac et al., \r\n2017b). The addition of water into the ocean also change the geoid, \r\nalter the rotation of the Earth and deform the ocean floor which in \r\nturn change sea level (e.g., Tamisiea, 2011; Stammer et al., 2013). "


id: a0aca99c5233fe6472f33e77e7f72ee5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25475
content:
"Sea level is rising in all ocean basins (virtually certain; Legeais et al. \r\n2018). Part of this regional sea level rise is due to global sea level rise \r\nof which a majority is attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas \r\nemissions (high confidence; Slangen et al. 2016). The remaining part \r\nof the regional sea-level rise in ocean basins is a combination of the \r\nresponse to anthropogenic GHG emissions and internal variability \r\n(e.g., Stammer et al. 2013; medium confidence)."


id: a31acbf887139ac49dab3799693c6969
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25899
content:
"As for GMSL, net regional sea level changes can be estimated from \r\na combination of the various contributions to sea level change. The \r\ncontributions from dynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier \r\nmass changes and ice sheet SMB can be derived from CMIP5 climate \r\nmodel outputs either directly or through downscaling techniques \r\n(Perrette et al., 2013; Kopp et al., 2014; Slangen et al., 2014a; \r\nBilbao et al., 2015; Carson et al., 2016; Meyssignac et al., 2017a). \r\nThe contributions from groundwater depletion, reservoir storage \r\nand dynamic ice sheet mass changes are not simulated by coupled \r\nclimate models over the 20th century and have to be estimated \r\nfrom observations. The sum of all contributions, including the GIA \r\ncontribution, provides a modelled estimate of the 20th century net \r\nregional sea level changes that can be compared with observations \r\nfrom satellite altimetry and tide-gauge records (see Figure 4.6)."


id: 272ad638cbfd2c61dafd898edff14785
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4054
content:
"In the open ocean, the spatial variability and trends in sea level \r\nobserved during the recent altimetry era or reconstructed over the \r\nprevious decades are dominated by the thermal expansion of the \r\nocean. In shallow shelf seas and at high latitudes (>60oN and <55oS), \r\nthe effect of dynamic mass redistribution becomes important. At \r\nlocal scale, salinity changes can also generate sizeable changes in the \r\nocean density similar to thermal expansion and lead to significant \r\nvariability in sea level (Forget and Ponte, 2015; Meyssignac et al., \r\n2017b). On global average, the heat and freshwater fluxes from the "


id: 4e5805c74cadfa4293291914b740801e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11057
content:
"significant local deviations. Around India for example, groundwater \r\ndepletion is responsible for the low 20th century SLR (because the \r\nremoval of groundwater mass generated a local decrease in geoid \r\nthat made local SLR slower; Meyssignac et al., 2017c)."


id: fe9cb1dbcbb3a837da7e78c10360217f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42172
content:
"These results show the ability of models to reproduce the major 20th \r\ncentury regional sea level changes due to GIA, thermal expansion, \r\nglacier mass loss and ice sheet SMB. This is tangible progress since \r\nAR5. But some doubts remain regarding the ability of climate models \r\nto reproduce local variations such as the glaciers and the Greenland \r\nSMB contributions to sea level in the region around the southern \r\ntip of Greenland (Slangen et al., 2017b) or such as the thermal \r\nexpansion in some eddy active regions (Serazin et al., 2016). Because \r\nof these doubts there is still medium confidence in climate models \r\nto project future regional sea level changes associated with thermal \r\nexpansion, glacier mass loss and ice sheet SMB. Coupled climate \r\nmodels have not simulated the other contributions to 20th century \r\nsea level, including the growing ice sheet dynamical contribution and \r\nland water storage changes. "


id: c17d8fb03493471c3bbfc081f3a491d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31346
content:
"In deltas, the local sea level can be dominated by anthropogenic \r\nsubsidence more than by the processes outlined above. It is often \r\na primary driver of elevated local SLR and increased flood hazards \r\nin those regions. This is particularly true for deltaic systems, where \r\nfertile soils, low-relief topography, freshwater access, and strategic \r\nports have encouraged the development of many of the world's \r\nmost densely populated coastlines and urban centres. For example, \r\nglobally, one in fourteen humans resides in mid-to-low latitude \r\ndeltas (Day et al., 2016). Although in these areas RSL is dominated \r\nby anthropogenic subsidence, climate effects need to be included for \r\nestimating risks associated with RSL (Syvitski et al., 2009)."


id: 1f57f3bb8cc907ceea985b62afcf752
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2716
content:
"Recent advances in statistical and dynamical modelling of wave \r\neffects at the coast, storm surges and inundation risk have reduced \r\nthe uncertainties around the inundation risks at the coast (Vousdoukas \r\net al., 2016; Vitousek et al., 2017; Melet et al., 2018; Vousdoukas et al., \r\n2018c) and assessments of the resulting highly resolved coastal sea \r\nlevels are now emerging (Cid et al., 2017; Muis et al., 2017; Wahl \r\net al., 2017). This progress was facilitated due to the availability \r\nof, for example, the Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis (GESLA-2; \r\nWoodworth et al., 2016) high-frequency (hourly) datasets, advances \r\nin the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP; Hemer \r\net al., 2013), coastal altimetry datasets (Cipollini et al., 2017), and \r\nthe Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR; Muis et al., 2016), while \r\nnew analyses of datasets that have been available since before the \r\npublication of AR5 have continued (e.g., PSML; Holgate et al., 2012)."


id: 937b06dcb779e3323f4166454dab8bd3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23151
content:
"Average natural and anthropogenic subsidence rates of 6-9 mm yr-1 \r\nare reported for the highly populated areas of Ganges-Brahmaputra\u0002Meghna delta in the urban centres of Kolkata and Dhaka (Brown and \r\nNicholls, 2015). A fraction of these subsidence rates might be caused by \r\nlong-term processes of increased sediment loading during the Holocene \r\nresulting from changes in the monsoon system (Karpytchev et al., 2018). \r\nSubsidence rates are expected to decrease in the Ganges-Brahmaputra\u0002Meghna delta in the near future due to planned dam projects and an \r\nestimated 21% drop in resulting sediment supply (Tessler et al., 2018). \r\nObservations of enhanced natural and anthropogenic subsidence "


id: 6fa48145f6843221b1644750c39f92c4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16899
content:
"forcing experiments by using a factor of 0.70 +- 0.30 (2 standard \r\ndeviations of the CMIP5 ensemble subset used), indicating a \r\npotential overestimation of forced variability in the CMIP5 ensemble. \r\nPatterns from the 'anthropogenic-only' forcing experiments needed \r\nto be scaled by a factor of 1.08 +- 0.13 (2 standard deviations of the \r\nCMIP5 ensemble subset used), indicating a realistic response of the \r\nCMIP5 ensemble to anthropogenic forcing."


id: 985aed702bf7496e04b7d452e9b55831
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24013
content:
"on the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna are common to most heavily \r\npopulated deltaic systems. Coastal mega-cities that have been \r\nparticularly prone to human-enhanced subsidence include Bangkok, \r\nHo Chi Minh city (Vachaud et al., 2018), Jakarta, Manila, New Orleans, \r\nWest Netherlands and Shanghai (Yin et al., 2013; Cheng et al., 2018). \r\nOn a global scale, observed rates of modern deltaic anthropogenic \r\nsubsidence range from 6-100  mm yr-1 (Bucx et al., 2015; Higgins, \r\n2016). Rates of recent deltaic subsidence over the last few decades \r\nhave been at least twice the 3 mm yr-1 rate of GMSL rise observed \r\nover this same interval (Higgins, 2016; Tessler et al., 2018). Numerical \r\nmodels that have reproduced these observed rates of anthropogenic \r\ndeltaic subsidence by considering human-induced compaction and \r\nreduced sediment supply, support anthropogenic causes for elevated \r\nrates of subsidence (Tessler et al., 2018)."


id: e543883d384ce16136aafaddaa1a2665
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37639
content:
"For the glacier contribution to GMSL, Marzeion et al. (2014) concluded \r\nthat while natural climate forcing and long-term adjustment of the \r\nglaciers to the end of the preceding Little Ice Age lead to continuous \r\nglacier mass loss throughout the simulation period of 1851-2010, the \r\nobserved rates of glacier mass loss since 1990 can only be explained \r\nby including anthropogenic forcing. During the period 1851-2010, \r\nonly 25 +- 35% of global glacier mass loss can be attributed to \r\nanthropogenic forcing, but 69 +- 24% during the period 1991-2010 \r\n(see Section  2.2.3 for a more detailed discussion of attribution of \r\nglacier mass change on regional scales)."


id: e261b7566def32b1d7eefb62c94479f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37118
content:
"In summary, ESL interacts with RSL rise including anthropogenic \r\nsubsidence in many vulnerable areas (see Box 4.1). Therefore, it is \r\nconcluded with high confidence that the inclusion of local processes \r\n(wave effects, storm surges, tides, erosion, sedimentation and \r\ncompaction) is essential to estimate local, relative and changes in ESL \r\nevents. Although the effect of anthropogenic subsidence may be very \r\nlarge locally, it is not accounted for in the projection sections of this \r\nchapter as no global data sets are available which are consistent with \r\nRCP scenarios, and because the scale at which these processes take \r\nplace is often smaller than the spatial scale used in climate models."


id: cd7908feb2763fe25c4e533c9c62e7b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33481
content:
"There is medium confidence in evidence linking GIS mass loss to \r\nanthropogenic climate change, and low confidence in the evidence \r\nthat AIS mass balance can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (see \r\nSection 3.3.1.6 for a detailed discussion). The effects of groundwater \r\ndepletion and reservoir impoundment on sea level change are \r\nanthropogenic by definition (e.g., Wada et al., 2012)."


id: f0f532218f20da04d41fcda4aaf222ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39759
content:
"Bindoff et al. (2013) concluded that it is very likely that there has been \r\na substantial contribution to ocean heat content from anthropogenic \r\nforcing (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols \r\nand land use change) since the 1970s, that it is likely that loss of land \r\nice is partly caused by anthropogenic forcing, and that as a result, it is \r\nvery likely that there is an anthropogenic contribution to the observed \r\ntrend in GMSL rise since 1970. However, these conclusions were \r\nbased on the understanding of the responsible physical processes, \r\nsince formal attribution studies dedicated to quantifying the effect of \r\nindividual external forcings were not available for GMSLR. Since AR5, \r\nsuch formal studies have attributed changes in individual components \r\nof sea level change (i.e., thermosteric sea level change and glacier \r\nmass loss), and in the total GMSL, to anthropogenic forcing."


id: fe3191c1a91e6e805ecb1bd4c2d51b6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42088
content:
"By estimating a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent \r\nnatural sea level variability, Dangendorf et al. (2015) detected a \r\nfraction of observed sea level change that is unexplained by natural \r\nvariability and concluded by inference that it is virtually certain\r\nthat at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL since 1900 is \r\nattributable to anthropogenic forcing. Similarly, Becker et al. (2014) \r\nprovided statistical evidence that the observed sea level trend, \r\nboth in the global mean and at selected tide gauge locations, is not \r\nconsistent with unforced, internal variability. They inferred that more \r\nthan half of the observed GMSL trend during the 20th century is \r\nattributable to anthropogenic forcing."


id: 2c80385e54f2de655589512b8af35e5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5096
content:
"Marcos and Amores (2014) found that during the period \r\n1970-2005, 87% (95% confidence interval: 72-100%) of the \r\nobserved thermosteric SLR in the upper 700  m of the ocean was \r\nanthropogenic. Slangen et al. (2014b) included the full ocean depth \r\nin their analysis. They concluded that a combination of anthropogenic \r\nand natural forcing is necessary to explain the temporal evolution \r\nof observed global mean thermosteric sea level change during the \r\nperiod 1957-2005. Anthropogenic forcing was responsible for the \r\namplitude of observed thermosteric sea level change, while natural \r\nforcing caused the forced variability of observations. Observations \r\ncould best be reproduced by scaling the patterns from 'natural-only' "


id: 7822925b9784d29df5824318f58b4de4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18350
content:
"inventory or have already melted (Parkes and Marzeion, 2018) which \r\nwere not considered in Slangen et al. (2016)."


id: b67d9c3402e0b4833671e8d558fc82c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29316
content:
"changes, as ice and water are redistributed around the globe. Input \r\nfor those models is provided by the mass changes following from \r\nthe off-line land ice models, time series of terrestrial water mass \r\nchanges which typically require climate input, and reconstruction of \r\npast ice sheet changes over the last glacial cycle provided by coupled \r\nice-Earth models (de Boer et al., 2017). Combining these different \r\nmodels leads to projections of RSL (Section 4.2.3.2)."


id: 474b893565fd6781119b8b10af03442a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9749
content:
"Based on these multiple lines of evidence, there is high confidence\r\nthat anthropogenic forcing very likely is the dominant cause of \r\nobserved GMSL rise since 1970."


id: 390597055ded65d595405d90e36c611f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7237
content:
"At the local spatial scales of specific cities, islands and stretches of \r\ncoastlines, hydrodynamical models (Section 4.2.3.3) and knowledge \r\nabout anthropogenic subsidence are necessary to analyse the \r\nimpacts of highly variable processes leading to ESL, such as tropical \r\ncyclone-driven storm surges. These hydrodynamical models are \r\ncapable of providing statistics on the variability or the change \r\nin variability of the water level required for flood risk calculations \r\nat specific locations and at spatial scales of less than 1  km. The \r\nmodels also rely on input from climate models, like temperature, \r\nprecipitation, wind regime, and storm tracks (Colbert et al., 2013; \r\nGarner et al., 2017). "


id: c85ccc8c9d570730f2a091ae8c857a9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32555
content:
"As a consequence of climate change, the global and regional mean \r\nsea level will change. Coupled climate models are used to make \r\nprojections of the climate changes and the associated SLR. Results \r\nfrom the CMIP5 model archive used for AR5 provide information \r\non expected changes in the oceans and on the evolution of climate, \r\nglaciers and ice sheets. New estimates from CMIP6 are not yet \r\navailable and will be discussed in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report \r\n(AR6), hence only a partly updated projection can be presented here."


id: b50ce3dbd5560d50706e4dc97ce4800e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29088
content:
"In summary, climate models play an important role at the various \r\nstages of projections in providing, together with emission scenarios, \r\ngeodynamic, ice-dynamic and hydrodynamic models, the required \r\ninformation for hazard estimation for coasts and low-lying islands. \r\nThis report relies on results of the CMIP5 model runs."


id: cfd4ad892813ba0c809b6d0ca8262bb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33921
content:
"In sum, uncertain climate projections (Edwards et al., 2014), albedo \r\nevolution, uncertainties around meltwater buffering by firn, complex \r\nprocesses linking surface, englacial and basal hydrology with ice \r\ndynamics (Goelzer et al., 2013; Stevens et al., 2016; Noel et al., \r\n2017; Hempelmann et al., 2018) and meltwater induced melting \r\nat marine-terminating ice fronts (Chauche et al., 2014), and coarse \r\nspatial model resolution (Pattyn et al., 2018), all continue to provide \r\nsubstantial challenges for ice sheet and SMB models."


id: dc8bbb609bbf3bf51f53939105cd9fd4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36065
content:
"Furst et al. (2015) used ten different CMIP5 Atmosphere-Ocean \r\nGeneral Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations to provide offline \r\nSMB and ocean forcing for their Greenland-wide ice sheet model, \r\naccounting for influences of warming subsurface ocean temperatures \r\nand basal lubrication on ice dynamics. In their RCP8.5 ensemble, they \r\nfound a GIS contribution to GMSL in 2100 of 10.15 cm +- 3.24 cm. \r\nSimilarly, Calov et al. (2018) found a range of GMSL contributions \r\nbetween 4.6-13 cm, depending on which CMIP5 GCM is used to \r\nforce their regional climate model to produce SMB forcing. The wide \r\nrange of RCP8.5 results in these studies highlights the substantial "


id: 3804abbf7cacdc8f670c4d8fc16bc0ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7062
content:
"Complimentary to the ice sheet scale simulations discussed above, \r\nNick et al. (2013) used detailed flowline models of four Greenland \r\noutlet glaciers (Petermann, Kangerdlugssuaq, Jakobshavn Isbrae, \r\nand Helheim) to estimate a dynamical contribution to sea level in \r\nan RCP8.5 scenario of 11.3-17.5 mm by 2100, and 29-49 mm, by \r\n2200. This demonstrates the limited potential of Greenland outlet \r\nglaciers alone to drive GMSL rise. Greenland-wide modelling studies \r\n(Table  4.2) consistently find a dominant role of runoff relative to \r\ndynamic discharge of ice loss, and a long-term reduction in the rate of "


id: a62b16cbc4eede319ecbd8862f48ceae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26457
content:
"are most sensitive to uncertainties in the applied climate forcing, \r\nespecially over this century (Edwards et al., 2014), but updated \r\nclimate projections since AR5 are not yet available. Because of the \r\nconsistency of recent modelling with the assessment of Church et al. \r\n(2013), Greenland's contribution to future sea level reported in AR5 \r\nwas used in our projections of GMSL."


id: 604f0e3b997e8662016a868fb5ea694d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14247
content:
"In summary, new modelling since AR5 is consistent with previous \r\nstudies suggesting future Greenland ice loss over the 21st century \r\nwill be dominated by surface processes, rather than dynamic ice \r\ndischarge to the ocean, regardless of which emissions scenario \r\nis followed (high confidence). Based on these modelling studies, \r\nthe GIS is not expected to contribute more than 20  cm of GMSL \r\nrise by 2100 in a RCP8.5 scenario, similar to the upper end of the \r\nlikely range reported by AR5 (Church et al., 2013). GIS simulations "


id: ccd7b3129b34663f0ef4d21b33b3040a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33369
content:
"In contrast to Greenland, Antarctica's recent contribution to SLR has \r\nbeen dominated by ice-dynamical processes rather than changes in \r\nSMB (Mouginot et al., 2014; Rignot et al., 2014; Scheuchl et al., 2016; \r\nShen et al., 2018; The IMBIE team, 2018). Since AR5, it has become \r\nincreasingly evident that this ice loss is being driven by sub-ice \r\noceanic melt (thinning) of ice shelves (Paolo et al., 2015; Wouters "


id: ea6b57f7b33e59876544fca8e6efdc54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38604
content:
"et al., 2015) and the resulting loss of back stress (buttressing) that \r\nimpedes the seaward flow of grounded ice upstream. Elevated melt \r\nrates are generally associated with the increased presence of warm \r\nCircumpolar Deep Water (CDW) on the continental shelf (Khazendar \r\net al., 2016). Dynamic ice loss driven by ocean changes have also \r\nbeen observed on the East Antarctic margin (Li et al., 2016; Shen et al., \r\n2018). This is an important development, because East Antarctica \r\ncontains much more ice than West Antarctica, so even minor changes \r\nthere could make major contributions to sea level in the future. "


id: 300c968788bea6c09e78a4a7d35ebe21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5717
content:
"of ice loss, but all of their simulations demonstrate sustained ice loss \r\nand a bathymetrically controlled future acceleration."


id: bd58b5b21ebb8f882ce181c627ba5991
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30559
content:
"While limited to 50 year simulations, Seroussi et al. (2017) provide the \r\nfirst interactively coupled ice-ocean model simulations of Thwaites \r\nGlacier at a high spatial resolution. Their model demonstrates \r\nMISI-like grounding line retreat at a rate of ~1 km yr-1, comparable \r\nto observations between 1992 and 2011 (Rignot et al., 2014). The \r\nretreat is interrupted when the main trunk of the glacier stabilises on \r\na bathymetric ridge, ~20 km upstream of the present-day grounding \r\nline (Figure 4.8), but due to the short duration of the simulation, the \r\nlong-term potential for additional retreat into the interior of the ice \r\nsheet is not captured. "


id: 49e552620f16da5d7e0eba6f899bf064
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10238
content:
"Despite the use of independent model formulations, forcings, and \r\ndifferent geographic settings, the overall agreement among these \r\nhighly-resolved regional modelling studies and their ability to capture \r\ncurrent rates of retreat, increases confidence since AR5 that observed \r\nretreat of Amundsen Sea outlet glaciers is driven by processes \r\nconsistent with MISI theory (medium confidence), will continue \r\n(medium confidence), and could accelerate (medium confidence)."


id: 2a76edc46a6ae85124a116a960e308ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4699
content:
"results, and new observational evidence that PIG has been retreating \r\non reverse-sloped bedrock for a half-century or more (Smith et al., \r\n2017), ice-Earth interactions are not expected to substantially slow \r\nGMSL rise from marine-based ice in Antarctica over the 21st century \r\n(medium confidence). However, these processes could become \r\nimportant for GMSL rise on multi-century and longer time scales."


id: deb6a32f7cbeaa59eeb5f29cabe96686
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36443
content:
"Continental-scale ice sheet simulations are ultimately required \r\nto provide projections of future GMSL rise from Antarctica. At this \r\nspatial scale, most models rely on simplifying approximations of the \r\nequations representing three-dimensional ice flow, and in some cases \r\nthey parameterise ice flow at the grounding line (Schoof, 2007b) to \r\nimprove computational efficiency. Such simplifications are necessary \r\nto allow long simulations that can be validated against geological \r\ninformation, in addition to modern observations (Briggs et al., 2013; \r\nPollard et al., 2016), however processes related to MISI are best \r\nrepresented at high spatial resolution and without simplifications of \r\nthe underlying physics (Pattyn et al., 2013; Reese et al., 2018c)."


id: 89fa66e0105105609e386a29bb9e0b28
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21442
content:
"without an interactive ice sheet. They simulated an RCP8.5 scenario \r\nwith and without a massive input of meltwater into the Southern \r\nOcean and demonstrate that the addition of Antarctic meltwater \r\nexpands sea ice in the Southern Ocean, delays the trajectory of \r\nglobal warming, and moderates atmospheric warming around the \r\nAntarctic coastline. Consistent with Golledge et al. (2019), they found \r\nmeltwater-induced stratification around Antarctica warms subsurface \r\nocean temperatures, indicating the potential for a positive meltwater \r\nfeedback on ice shelf melt. These studies reinforce the need for \r\ncontinental-scale studies to consider two-way ice-climate coupling, \r\nbut with limited published studies to draw from and no simulations \r\nrun beyond 2100, firm conclusions regarding the net importance of \r\natmospheric versus ocean melt feedbacks on the long-term future of \r\nAntarctica can not be made."


id: 1640df6c8bf00b99df7cc63db9af7e47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1129
content:
"future simulations (Bulthuis et al., 2019), although they still require \r\nuncoupled ocean models to provide time-evolving ocean conditions \r\noutside the cavities."


id: dd301e31e0496a774faa9822af836968
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36181
content:
"Levermann et al. (2014) use simplified emulations of temperature \r\nincrease in order to estimate both SMB and sub-ice melt (including a \r\nparameterised delay for ocean warming) to determine the linearised \r\nresponse of five ice sheet models calibrated against recent rates \r\nof retreat. Substantial uncertainty arises from the different model \r\ntreatments of grounding line dynamics and ice shelves. However, \r\nthey conclude that the single greatest source of uncertainty stems \r\nfrom the external forcing."


id: 99d93c23890f9ab37b9d247e3c04aa68
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24294
content:
"on process-based numerical models of the AIS, driven by diverse \r\nclimate scenarios. Results are discussed in the context of an expert \r\nelicitation study (Bamber et al., 2019), probabilistic studies (Perrette \r\net al., 2013; Slangen et al., 2014a; Grinsted et al., 2015; Jackson \r\nand Jevrejeva, 2016) and a sensitivity study (Schlegel et al., 2018) \r\nassessing the uncertainty in snow accumulation, ocean-induced \r\nmelting, ice viscosity, basal friction, bedrock elevation and the effect \r\nof ice shelves on ice mass loss in 2100, Figure 4.4."


id: acf2779740ae370e5d21b667eb17c91a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27667
content:
"There is limited evidence for major changes since AR5 in the \r\nnon-Antarctic components. Recent projections of the glacier \r\ncontribution are nearly identical to AR5 results used here (see \r\nCross-Chapter Box  6 in Chapter  2). Greenland, thermal expansion \r\nand land water storage are also not updated, mainly due to a \r\nlack of updated CMIP simulations. Hence, our revised projections \r\nreplace only the AR5 estimate for Antarctica by a new assessment \r\nas outlined in the previous paragraph based on post-AR5 literature \r\nand maintaining identical contributions for the non-Antarctic \r\ncomponents. As no general dependence between the Antarctic \r\ncontribution and the non-Antarctic components can be derived from \r\nthe four studies, independent uncertainties are assumed, which is \r\nclose to the uncertainty propagation by Church et al. (2013)."


id: b4ed7ddd4a9cbc420cb8cd66aa12cac7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29076
content:
"Time series for the different RCP scenarios are shown in Figure 4.9 \r\nindicating a divergence in median and upper likely range for RCP8.5 \r\nduring the second half of the century between this report and the \r\nAR5 projections (Church et al., 2013). The value of the Antarctic \r\ncontribution in 2081-2100 under RCP8.5 is the individual component \r\nwith the largest uncertainty. As a consequence, the uncertainty \r\nin the GMSL projections is slightly increased compared to Church \r\net al. (2013). Nevertheless, results can also be considered to be \r\nconsistent with Church et al. (2013). In AR5, the potential additional \r\ncontribution by ice dynamics, was estimated to be not more than \r\nseveral tenths of a metre but excluded from projections; here this "


id: b035308cd296b59ca711e0acaa1ab44a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28236
content:
"As the importance of MISI and MICI is difficult to assess on longer \r\ntime scales, there remains deep uncertainty for the Antarctic \r\ncontribution to GMSL after 2100 (Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1). \r\nResults on these long-time scales are discussed in 4.2.3.5."


id: e6558e92b466cc3f4c80aa6c0eacbe67
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37828
content:
"Table 4.3 | An overview of different studies estimating the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise (SLR), listed here are median values. Estimates from Golledge et al. \r\n(2015) are based on the average contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) over the full 21st century, based on two alternative ensembles using different sub-ice melt \r\nschemes. This average is not explicitly reported in the original paper where the individual values of 0.1 and 0.39 m are reported. SMB is the surface mass balance, BMB the \r\nbasal melt balance, LIG is Last Interglacial, MICI is marine ice cliff instability, GCM is General Circulation Model, PDD is positive-degree day."


id: 98887225ae8f194e5e336bf9933966d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24047
content:
"Table 4.4 | Median values and likely ranges for projections of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise in metres in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 for three scenarios. In \r\naddition, values of GMSL rise are given for 2046-2065 and 2100, and the rate of GMSL rise is given for 2100. Values between parentheses reflect the likely range. SMB \r\nis surface mass balance, DYN is dynamical contribution, LWS is land water storage. Total AR5 minus Antarctica AR5 is the GMSL rise contribution in Church et al. (2013) \r\nwithout the Antarctic contribution of Church et al. (2013). The newly derived Antarctic contribution is added to this to arrive at the GMSL rise."


id: 2b3f83e967e5f6d9d51e361f1b82ab6f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4853
content:
"Projections as presented in Table 4.4 are used to calculate the regional \r\nRSL projections as outlined in AR5 by including gravitational and \r\nrotational patterns as shown in Figure 4.10 and subsequently used \r\nin 4.2.3.4 to calculate ESL projections. Including the updated results \r\nin terms of magnitude and uncertainty for the Antarctic component \r\nalso changes the regional patterns in sea level projections. Results \r\nof the regional patterns in Figure 4.10 show an increased SLR with \r\nrespect to the results presented in AR5 nearly everywhere for RCP8.5 \r\nbecause of the increased Antarctic contribution. "


id: 31ab472bd0347b10bbcc34bf8709f890
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5982
content:
"value was assessed to be 16  cm (5-95 percentile; 2-37 cm) and \r\ninclude it in the projections. As the projections build on the CMIP5 \r\nwork presented in AR5, and also given the limited exploration of \r\nuncertainty in estimates from each individual study, the results of \r\nthe 5-95 percentile are interpreted to represent the likely range, that \r\nis, the 17-83 percentile, as assessed by Church et al. (2013) and as \r\nassessed in AR5 for other CMIP5-derived results."


id: f4d6399a6f3354eb8b7ce3df5ea18088
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40444
content:
"Since AR5, several studies have produced SLR projections in coherent \r\nframeworks that link together global-mean and RSL rise projections. \r\nThe approaches are generally similar to those adopted by AR5 for \r\nits global-mean sea level projections: a bottom-up accounting of \r\ndifferent contributing processes (e.g.,  land-ice mass loss, thermal \r\nexpansion, dynamic sea level), of which many are 'probabilistic', \r\nin that they attempt to describe more comprehensive probability \r\ndistributions of sea level change than the likely ranges presented \r\nby Church et al. (2013). An overview of probabilistic approaches is \r\npresented in Garner et al. (2017), indicating higher values for post \r\nAR5 studies mainly reflecting increased uncertainty based on a single \r\ncontested study for the Antarctic contribution (DeConto and Pollard, \r\n2016). As such many of these probabilistic studies present full "


id: 57532255a23f9d03ae7381a3f4fa845e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12620
content:
"This section first briefly reviews key sources of information for \r\nprobabilistic projections (Section  4.2.3.3.1), with a focus on \r\nnew results since AR5, then summarises the different global and \r\nregional projections (Section  4.2.3.3.2). Eventually, bottom-up \r\nprojections were distinguished which explicitly describe the \r\ndifferent components of SLR (Section 4.2.3.3.3) from semi-empirical \r\nprojections (Section 4.2.3.3.4)."


id: aad911a02a849b12e708bef2507a5498
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27283
content:
"Thermal expansion: Global mean thermal expansion projections rely \r\non coupled climate models projections (Kopp et al., 2014; Slangen \r\net al., 2014a; Jackson and Jevrejeva, 2016) or simple climate model \r\nprojections (Perrette et al., 2013; Nauels et al., 2017b; Wong et al., \r\n2017), and are substantively unchanged since AR5. For those studies \r\nrelying on the CMIP5 GCM ensemble, interpretations of the model \r\noutput differ mainly with regard to how the range is understood. For \r\nexample, Kopp et al. (2014), interprets the 5-95 percentile of CMIP5 \r\nvalues as a likely range of thermal expansion. The differences among \r\nthe studies yield discrepancies smaller than 10 cm, e.g., Slangen et al. \r\n(2014a) use 20-36  cm in 2081-2100 with respect to 1986-2005, \r\nwhile (Kopp et al., 2014) project a likely range of 28-46 cm in 2081-\r\n2099 with respect to 1991-2009. "


id: 533b959e8e69438cfce6fcddd9dfa629
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11913
content:
"Beside the total contribution of ice sheets several studies address \r\nthe individual contribution of either Greenland or Antarctica (see \r\nSection  4.2.3.1.1 and 4.2.3.1.2) based on ice dynamical studies. \r\nCritical for GMSL projections is the low confidence in the dynamic \r\ncontribution of the AIS beyond 2050 in previous assessments, as \r\ndiscussed in Section 4.2.3.1.2."


id: 3d1ccbc7ee7d9a86d5713482a58f5035
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7934
content:
"4.2.3.3.2 From probabilistic global mean sea level projections \r\nto regional relative sea level change"


id: 85ad42b33a9b935fc52ae40accfa4409
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20662
content:
"Glaciers: Projections of glacier mass change rely either on models of \r\nglacier SMB and geometry, forced by temperature and precipitation \r\nfields (Slangen and Van de Wal, 2011; Marzeion et al., 2012; \r\nHirabayashi et al., 2013; Radic et al., 2014; Huss and Hock, 2015), or \r\nsimple scaling relationships with global mean temperature (Perrette \r\net al., 2013; Bakker et al., 2017; Nauels et al., 2017a). Glacier mass \r\nchange projections published since AR5, based on newly developed \r\nglacier models, confirm the overall assessment of AR5 (see also \r\nSection 4.2.3.2)."


id: a0da679971969a3b504e75f7789b9996
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25519
content:
"Differences between GMSL and RSL change are driven by three main \r\nfactors: (1) changes in the ocean, for instance, the thermal expansion \r\ncomponent and the circulation driven changes, (2) gravitational and \r\nrotational effects caused by redistribution of mass within cryosphere \r\nand hydrosphere, leading to spatial patterns, and (3) long term \r\nprocesses caused by GIA that lead to horizontal and VLM. Finally, \r\nthe inverse barometer effect caused by changes in the atmospheric \r\npressure, sometimes neglected in projections, can also make a small \r\ncontribution, particularly on shorter time scales. For the 21st century \r\nas a whole, estimates of the latter are smaller than 5 cm at local \r\nscales (Church et al., 2013; Carson et al., 2016)."


id: 1807d555f20c8cb5ee467b415e7a5e61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1434
content:
"Land water storage: Projections of the GMSL rise contributions due \r\nto dam impoundment and groundwater withdrawal are generally \r\neither calibrated to hydrological models (e.g., Wada et al., 2012) or \r\nneglected. Recent coupled climate-hydrological modelling suggests \r\nthat a significant minority of pumped groundwater remains on land, \r\nwhich may reduce total GMSL rise relative to studies assuming full \r\ndrainage to the ocean (Wada et al., 2016). Kopp et al. (2014) estimated \r\nland water storage based on population projections. However, there \r\nare no substantive updates to projections of the future land-water \r\nstorage contribution to GMSL rise since AR5."


id: 4ba24e0889ccf959c7328163fa19d0ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10567
content:
"Ocean Dynamic sea level: Projections of dynamic sea level change are \r\nnecessarily derived through interpretations of coupled climate model \r\nprojections. As with thermal expansion projections, interpretations \r\nof the CMIP5 ensemble differ with regard to how the model range \r\nis understood and the manner of drift correction, if any (Jackson \r\nand Jevrejeva, 2016). However, relative to tide-gauge observations, \r\ncoupled climate models tend to overestimate the memory in dynamic \r\nsea level; thus, they may underestimate the emergence of the \r\nexternally forced signal of DSL change above scenario uncertainty \r\n(Becker et al., 2016). ODSL from coupled climate models does not \r\ninclude the changes resulting from ice melt because ice melt is \r\ncalculated off-line."


id: 487cc7b43c68a11252f699d9ffbcc87d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9963
content:
"Ice sheets: GMSL projections in previous IPCC assessments were \r\nbased on results from physical models of varying degree of complexity \r\ninterpreted using expert judgment of the assessment authors (Meehl \r\net al., 2007; Church et al., 2013). AR5 (Church et al., 2013) used this \r\napproach and is partly based on the assessment of statistical-physical \r\nmodelling of the Antarctic contribution (Little et al., 2013). As an \r\nalternative to the model-based approach, several studies have applied \r\nstructured expert elicitation to the GMSL contribution of ice sheets. \r\nThis approach is based on a more formal expert elicitation protocol \r\n(Cooke, 1991; Bamber and Aspinall, 2013; Bamber et al., 2019) instead \r\nof physically based models. Combining the Antarctic contribution from "


id: f09ff67b66fdf3285f06d243f537afd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39709
content:
"Gravitational-rotational and deformational effects (GRD; Gregory \r\net al., 2019): All projections of RSL change include spatial patterns \r\nin sea level for cryospheric changes, which however may differ in the \r\ndetails with which these are represented. Some studies also include a \r\nspatial pattern for land-water storage change (Slangen et al., 2014a), \r\nanthropogenic subsidence is not included. Recent work indicates "


id: 71df95c12b5d12921e6b5a3ac4b68bf1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17276
content:
"that, for some regions with low mantle viscosity, spatial patterns \r\ncannot be treated as fixed on multi-century time scales (Hay et al., \r\n2017). This effect has not yet been incorporated into comprehensive \r\nRSL projections, but is probably only of relevance near ice sheets. \r\nFor adaptation purposes, Larour et al. (2017) developed a mapping \r\nmethod to indicate which areas of ice mass loss are important for \r\nwhich major port city. There is high confidence in the patterns caused \r\nby GRD, as in AR5."


id: 27ddb563d03f77d0e405e296a2219f88
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4209
content:
"groundwater/hydrocarbon withdrawal); by using only tide gauge \r\nmeasurements, projections may assume that these other processes \r\nproceed at a steady rate and thus do not allow for management \r\nchanges that affect groundwater extraction."


id: 5f4c21e48fc6dbd3490a7e5873306e73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14073
content:
"Semi-empirical models provide an alternative approach to \r\nprocess-based models aiming to close the budget between the \r\nobserved SLR and the sum of the different components contributing \r\nto SLR. In general, motivated by a mechanistic understanding, \r\nsemi-empirical models use statistical correlations from time series \r\nanalysis of observations to generate projections (Rahmstorf, 2007; \r\nVermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009; Grinsted et al., 2010; Kemp et al., 2011; \r\nKopp et al., 2016). They implicitly assume that the processes driving \r\nthe observations and feedback mechanisms remain similar over the \r\npast and future. In the past, differences between semi-empirical \r\nprojections and process-based models were significant but for "


id: a8094f0370dbdca45b3a7f7458b8ed53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26776
content:
"Vertical land motion (VLM): These processes can be an important \r\ndriver of RSL change, particularly in the near- to intermediate-field \r\nof the large ice sheets of the LGM (e.g., North America and northern \r\nEurope). This process is incorporated either by physical modelling \r\n(Slangen et al., 2014a) or by estimation of a long-term trend from \r\ntide-gauge data (e.g., Kopp et al., 2014), which is then spatially \r\nextrapolated. In the former case, only the long-term GIA process \r\nis included in the projections, but it excludes other important local \r\nfactors contributing to VLM (e.g., tectonic uplift/subsidence and "


id: 2a2ad870e5a229e04c6fe94671dcdb72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4628
content:
"Table 4.5 | Sources of Information Underlying Probabilistic Projections of Sea level Rise (SLR) Projections. CMIP5 is Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase \r\n5, GRD is gravitational, rotational and deformation effects, SMB is surface mass balance, AR4 is IPCC 4th Assessment Report, VLM is vertical land motion, GIA is \r\nglacio-isostatic adjustment."


id: 99f554414f29a9dc7aa79ec2069d8c17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24316
content:
"Table 4.6 | Median and likely Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise projections (m). Values between brackets are likely range, if no values are given the likely range is not \r\navailable. The table shows result from the probabilistic and semi-empirical results. A is 2000 as base line year up to 2100; B is the average of 1986-2005 as base line for \r\nthe projection up to 2081-2100, C 1980-1999 as baseline up to 2090-2099."


id: f0eca93d971a669a9c3e3da4e18a82ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39754
content:
"(resolution, precision and accuracy) of wind and pressure in climate \r\nprojections, which is often insufficient to describe the role of waves."


id: d32b41586ddb4d968e668705505f1ab1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34498
content:
"ESL events are water level heights that consist of contributions from \r\nmean sea level, storm surges and tides. Compound effects of surges \r\nand tides are drivers of the ESL events. Section 4.2.3.4.1 discusses \r\nthe combination of mean sea level change with a characterisation \r\nof the ESL events derived from tide gauges over the historical period \r\nand the sections 4.2.3.4.2 and 4.2.3.4.3 evaluate possible changes \r\nin these characteristics caused by cyclones and waves. This section \r\ndiscusses the importance of ESL and different modelling strategies to \r\nimprove our understanding of ESL projections."


id: 54557f59785bfcfb54504d1f1dcf50e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12117
content:
"Even a small increase in mean sea level can significantly augment \r\nthe frequency and intensity of flooding. This is because SLR elevates \r\nthe platform for storm surges, tides, and waves, and because there is \r\na log-linear relationship between a flood's height and its occurrence \r\ninterval. Changes are most pronounced in shelf seas. Roughly 1.3% \r\nof the global population is exposed to a 1 in 100-year-1 flood (Muis \r\net al., 2016). This exposure to ESL and resulting damage could \r\nincrease significantly with SLR, potentially amounting to 10% of the \r\nglobal GDP by the end of the century in the absence of adaptation \r\n(Hinkel et al., 2014)."


id: 5b929530de02b397a58164a48c1cd193
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13359
content:
"Changes in ESL are presented here, based on the projections as \r\npresented in 4.2.3.2 at the tide gauge locations in the GESLA2 \r\ndatabase (Woodworth et al., 2016). Results include GIA effects, but \r\nanthropogenic subsidence is not prescribed. These calculations serve \r\nas a signal to guide adaption to SLR (Stephens et al., 2018). Return \r\nperiods are calculated as a combination of regional RSL projections \r\nand a probabilistic characterisation of the variability in sea level as \r\nderived from the GESLA2 data set which contains a quasi-global \r\nset of tide gauges. By doing so, it is assumed that the variability in \r\nthe tide gauge record does not change over time. Models are not \r\naccurate enough to address whether this is correct or not."


id: b3cecf0ef60ba65d11daf71f2df3c710
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28878
content:
"To quantify the average return period of ESL events, a peak-over\u0002threshold method is applied following Arns et al. (2013) and Wahl \r\net al. (2017). Tide gauge records are detrended by subtracting a \r\nrunning mean of one year. Peaks above the 99th percentile of hourly \r\nwater levels are extracted and declustered by applying a minimum \r\ntime between peaks of 72 hours. This threshold of 99% was \r\nrecommended by Wahl et al. (2017) for global applications. Using \r\na maximum likelihood estimator, a Generalized Pareto Distribution \r\n(GPD) is fitted to these peaks, allowing for an extrapolation to \r\nreturn periods beyond the available period of observations. Changes \r\nin ESL events due to regional mean SLR are quantified following \r\nHunter (2010). Uncertainties in the GPD parameters and projections \r\nare propagated using a Monte Carlo approach, from which a best \r\nestimate is derived (see SM4.2). Only tide gauge records of 20 years "


id: 12a3a746ed86c224e7af2fe90ce9f0c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 483
content:
"of longer, which are at least 70% complete, are used. However, as \r\ncan be seen for Guam (Fig 4.9), this does not ensure a good fit of \r\nthe GPD to all peaks, as rare events may have been captured in this \r\nrelatively short record. "


id: 7daf738ff7157824d85b0eab6c9bfe38
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19287
content:
"allowance equals the regional projection of SLR with an additional \r\nheight related to the uncertainty in the projection (Hunter, 2012)."


id: 101ec89c3e55fd4597d6cd52b963141a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23
content:
"Amplification factors are strongly determined by the local variability \r\nin ESL events. Locations where this variability is large due to large \r\nstorm surges and astronomical tides (e.g., Cuxhaven, see Figure 4.9) \r\nwill experience a relatively moderate amplification of the occurrence \r\nfrequency of extremes. In comparison, locations with small variability \r\nin ESL events (e.g., Lautoka and Papeete) will experience large \r\namplifications even for a moderate rise in mean sea level (Vitousek \r\net al., 2017). Globally, this contrast between regions with large \r\nand small amplification factors becomes clear for projections by \r\nmid-century (Fig 4.11, left panels). Although regional differences \r\nin projected mean SLR are small for the coming centuries, regional \r\ncontrasts in amplification factors are considerable. In particular, "


id: df366321110492cf113835e556b0d499
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36525
content:
"Projected changes in ESL events are shown for 12 selected tide gauges \r\nin Figure  4.11. The magnitude of these changes depends on the \r\nrelation between ESL events and the associated return periods, as well \r\nas regional sea level projections, and the uncertainty therein (see inset \r\nFigure 4.11). The change in ESL events is commonly expressed in terms \r\nof the amplification factor and the allowance. The amplification factor \r\ndenotes the amplification in the average occurrence frequency of a \r\ncertain extreme event, often referenced to the water level with a 100-\r\nyear return period during the historic period. The allowance denotes \r\nthe increased height of the water level with a given return period. This "


id: 5c05dfe9e906d4d93fbc7748e6c02dcc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13450
content:
"Figure 4.12 | The colours of the dots express the factor by which the frequency of extreme sea level (ESL) events increase in the future for events which historically have \r\na return period of 100 years. Hence a value of 50 means that what is currently 1-in-100 year event will happen every 2 years due to a rise in mean sea level. Results are \r\nshown for three RCP scenarios and two future time slices as median values. Results are shown for tide gauges in the GESLA2 database. The accompanying confidence \r\ninterval can be found in SM4.2 as well as a list of all locations. The data underlying the graph are identical to those presented in Figure 4.11. The amplification factor is \r\nschematically explained in the upper right panel of figure 4.11. Storm climatology is constant in these projections."


id: b132ea85564055ea6114f4bf7ca010c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28408
content:
"many coastal areas in the lower latitudes may expect amplification \r\nfactors of 100 or larger by mid-century, regardless of the scenario \r\nas also shown in SR15 and Rasmussen et al. (2018). This indicates \r\nthat, at these locations, water levels with return periods of 100 years \r\nduring recent past will become annual or more frequent events by \r\nmid-century. By end-century and in particular under RCP8.5, such \r\namplification factors are widespread along the global coastlines \r\n(Vousdoukas et al., 2018a)."


id: 8688b6ecfe973fd4a837a470d4c7ccf1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20837
content:
"flooding are expected to be severe and adaptive capacity is reduced \r\n(Hoeke et al., 2013; Albert et al., 2016)."


id: bd6b7eea048d1a453565b57d594216ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30581
content:
"A stationarity of the wave climate is often assumed for projections of \r\nESL events (Vitousek et al., 2017). Yet, wave contributions to coastal \r\nsea level changes (setup and swash) depend on several factors that \r\ncan vary in response to internal climate variability and climate change, \r\nincluding deep-water wave field, water-depth, and geomorphology. \r\nMelet et al. (2018) reported that over recent decades, wave setup and \r\nswash interannual-to-decadal changes induced by deep-water wave \r\nheight and period changes alone were sizeable compared to steric \r\nand land-ice mass loss coastal sea level changes. "


id: 5d1d15b6cd1cc588992586db583fd6f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13654
content:
"Comprehensive broad-scale projections of sea level at the coast \r\nincluding regional sea level changes, tides, waves, storm surges, \r\ninteractions between these processes and accounting for changes in \r\nperiod and height of waves and frequency and intensity of storm \r\nsurges are yet to be performed."


id: 66cbc3e618a9bbcd082cd6833f708bea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15353
content:
"Tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs and ETCs) tend to determine \r\nESL events, such as coastal storm surges, high water events, coastal \r\nfloods, and their associated impacts on coastal communities around \r\nthe world. The projected potential future changes in TCs and ETCs \r\nfrequency, track and intensity is therefore of great importance. After \r\nAR5, it was realised that the modelled global frequency of TCs is \r\nunderestimated and that the geographical pattern is poorly resolved \r\nin the case of TC tracks, very intense TCs (i.e.,  Category 4/5) and \r\nTC formation by using low resolution climate models (Camargo, \r\n2013). Over recent years, multiple methods including downscaling "


id: 7b7312204aa2ce8d46459e6ea1683030
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18923
content:
"Previous extensive studies indicated the important role of warming \r\noceans in the TC activity (Emanuel, 2005; Mann and Emanuel, 2006; \r\nTrenberth and Fasullo, 2007; Trenberth and Fasullo, 2008; Villarini \r\nand Vecchi, 2011; Trenberth et al., 2018) and also revealed TCs \r\nstir the ocean and mix the subsurface cold water to the surface \r\n(Shay et al., 1992; Lin et al., 2009). The resulting increased thermal \r\nstratification of the upper ocean under global warming will reduce \r\nthe projected intensification of TCs (Emanuel, 2015; Huang et al., \r\n2015; Tuleya et al., 2016). A recent study suggests a strengthening \r\neffect of ocean freshening in TC intensification, opposing the thermal \r\neffect (Balaguru et al., 2016). It is concluded that it is likely that the \r\nintensity of severe TCs will increase in a warmer climate, but there \r\nis still low confidence in the frequency change of TCs in the future. "


id: ef0d54a0460cca363565e69c374029cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Recent projection studies indicate that trends in regional ETCs \r\nvary from region to region, for example, a projected increase in the \r\nfrequency of ETCs in the South and the northeast North Atlantic, the \r\nSouth Indian Ocean, and the Pacific (Colle et al., 2013; Zappa et al., \r\n2013; Cheng et al., 2017; Michaelis et al., 2017) and a decrease in the \r\nnumbers of ETCs in the North Atlantic basin and the Mediterranean \r\n(Zappa et al., 2013; Michaelis et al., 2017). Note that the projected \r\nfrequency in ETCs still remains uncertain due to different definitions \r\nof cyclone, model biases or climate variability (Chang, 2014; Cheng \r\net al., 2016). Considering these processes implies that changes in TC \r\nand ETC characteristics will vary locally and therefore there is low \r\nconfidence in the regional storm changes, which is in agreement with \r\nAR5 WGI Chapter 14 (Christensen et al., 2013)."


id: 4072a05910dc4013a9b8eab9a226f226
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8529
content:
"Observed damages from ETCs/TCs to coastal regions has increased \r\nover the past 30 years and will continue in the future (Ranson \r\net al., 2014). The global population exposed to ETCs/TCs hazards \r\nis expected to continue to increase in a warming climate (Peduzzi \r\net al., 2012; Bloschl et al., 2017; Emanuel, 2017a; Michaelis et al., \r\n2017). The probabilities of sea level extreme events induced by TC "


id: 1451e5a337074924b9d57515b694224f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 793
content:
"A study by Clark et al. (2016) addresses the evolution of the ice \r\nsheets over the next 10,000 years and concludes that given a climate \r\nmodel with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.5oC, the estimated \r\ncombined loss of Greenland and Antarctica ranges from 25-52 m of \r\nequivalent sea level, depending on the emission scenario considered, \r\nwith rates of GMSL as high as 2-4  m per century. A worst-case \r\nscenario was explored with an intermediate complexity climate \r\nmodel coupled to a dynamical ice model (Winkelmann et al., 2015), in \r\nwhich all readily available fossil fuels are combusted at present-day \r\nrates until they are exhausted. The associated climate warming leads \r\nto the disappearance of the entire AIS with rates of SLR up to around "


id: 5359cb2132a0204191bdc7e9d18ceee2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 11935
content:
"divergence of RSL rise over time, whereby the estimates in 2300 \r\nrange from about 1-2 m under RCP2.6 up to 2-5.5 m for RCP8.5."


id: d37d23e47e9febe55b64f5e02630a0a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34546
content:
"3 m per century. A follow up study by Clark et al. (2018) addressing \r\nthe long-term commitment of SLR based on cumulative carbon \r\ndioxide emissions points to SLR as an additional measure for setting \r\nemission targets. It shows that a 2oC scenario would result in 0.9 m \r\nin 2300 and around 7.4 m in the year 9000 CE."


id: 3afb87ded852722c2984ff4bb2f1bf96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7567
content:
"The specific trajectories that will be followed may depend critically \r\non if and when certain tipping points are reached. Most critical in \r\nthat respect are presumably the tipping points corresponding (1) to \r\nthe threshold where the ablation in Greenland becomes larger than \r\nthe accumulation, causing an irreversible and nearly full retreat of \r\nthe ice sheet; and (2) the thresholds for ice shelf stability in West \r\nAntarctica, which depend on surface melt and sub-ice melt, combined \r\nwith uncertainties surrounding MISI and/or MICI. There is deep \r\nuncertainty about whether and when a tipping point will be passed. \r\nFor RCP8.5, the chance of passing a tipping-point are considered to \r\nbe substantially higher than for RCP2.6."


id: c884ab5a5dd84ee323f18d2ce0c83263
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32584
content:
"This box illustrates current coastal flood risk management and adaptation practices through four case studies from around the world, \r\nshowing how current approaches could be refined using the new seal level rise (SLR) projections of this report, as well as findings on \r\nadaptation options, decision making approaches and governance (called Practice Consistent with SROCC Assessment in Tables 1-3).\r\nIn an effort to illustrate some of the diverse social-ecological settings in this report, the locations are Nadi in Fiji, the Nile delta in Egypt, \r\nNew York and Shanghai. The latter two studies are framed as a comparison. For each case, Current Practice reflects understanding, \r\npolicy planning, and implementation that existed prior to SROCC. Recent improvements in understanding documented in this chapter \r\nsuggest that significant, beneficial changes in the basis for design and planning are feasible in each case for addressing future risk. "


id: d3a1b36aa5681c1f8e885cdc42ebeedb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34567
content:
"hinterland. Much of the mangrove fringe has been sacrificed for development of various kinds. The Nadi River Delta is subsiding,\r\nexacerbating the effects of SLR (Chandra and Gaganis, 2016). Various initiatives to help alleviate flooding and inundation in the Nadi \r\nBasin have been proposed. These include both hard protection and engineering (e.g., ring dikes, river widening, bridge rebuilding, \r\nretarding basins, shortcutting tributaries, dams and diversion channels) and accommodation (e.g., early flood warnings and improved \r\nland management practices in upper basin) measures (Box 4.1, Table 1). "


id: d8de543699521d13a7113cfd7b23e4f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35448
content:
"A Comparison of New York City and Shanghai Coastal Flood Adaptation Measures \r\nHurricane Sandy (2012) and Typhoon Winnie (1997) are considered the largest recorded historical flood events for New York City \r\nand Shanghai, respectively (Xian et al., 2018). Hurricane Sandy killed 55 people in New York City and neighbouring states and caused \r\nover 19  billion USD losses to New York City (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2014). Typhoon Winnie killed more than 310 people and "


id: f61398c4f6b51cf4f286ae8e6d34b2f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 40651
content:
"Box 4.1, Table 1 | Current coastal flood risk management and adaptation practices in the Nadi Basin and possible refinements using the new SLR and ESL \r\nprojections of this report, as well as findings on adaptation options, decision making approaches and governance (Practice Consistent with SROCC Assessment). See \r\nHay (2017) for background on current practice and practice consistent with SROCC assessment; see Box 4.1, Figure 1 for ESL event values. VLM is vertical land motion."


id: 37c6b5d52d4cb5bd8f0ce5044f70fae6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 7019
content:
"caused damage exceeding 3.2 billion USD in China. Many dikes and floodwalls along coastal Shanghai and Zhejiang were breached \r\nby surge-driven floodwaters (Gu, 2005)."


id: b78b9ff135839f44ae4e030d5b071795
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29501
content:
"Since Hurricane Sandy in 2012, implementation of the 'Big U' project, a coastal protection system for lower Manhattan, has begun, \r\nand a variety of measures are planned, and some undertaken, to protect the subway system to a flood level of 4.3 m above street level \r\n(Jacob Balter, 2017; MTA, 2017). Newly built critical facilities will be located outside the flood zone and siting guidelines for publicly \r\nfinanced projects in the current and future flood zones have been tightened (New York City Mayor's Office of Recovery and Resiliency, \r\n2019). The degree to which these protection projects will be completed and the guidelines enforced remains uncertain. Home buyouts \r\nhave enabled some permanent relocation away from hazardous areas, but relocation impacts on social networks and place-based ties \r\nhamper long-term recovery (Binder et al., 2019; Buchanan et al., 2019)."


id: bdbf9c232e2d32f4e36b64988046bd1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30645
content:
"Box 4.1, Table 2 | Current coastal flood risk management and adaptation practices in New York City and Shanghai and possible refinements using the new sea \r\nlevel rise (SLR) and extreme sea level (ESL) projections of this report, as well as findings on adaptation options, decision making approaches and governance (Practice \r\nConsistent with SROCC Assessment). See Xian et al. (2018) for background on current practice and practice consistent with SROCC assessment. See Box 4.1, Figure 1 \r\nfor ESL event values. EbA is ecosystem-based adaptation."


id: 1c62a96d5a6c73f0a72e35e72039b4b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 2185
content:
"gpggyp\r\nCoastal hazard for the Nile delta arises because large portions lie only +-1.5 m above sea level (Shaltout et al., 2015) and while the \r\nDelta includes only 2% of Egypt's total area, it held 41% of its population as of 2006 (Hereher, 2010; World Bank, 2017) and is key \r\nto Egypt's economy (Bucx et al., 2010). The delta is an important resource for Egypt's fish farms (Hereher, 2009; El-Sayed, 2016) and \r\ncontains more than 63% of Egypt's cultivated lands (Hereher, 2010). The Nile Delta's coastal lagoons are internationally renowned \r\nfor abundant bird life, account for one fourth of Mediterranean wetlands and 60% of Egypt's fish catch (Government of Egypt, 2016). \r\nCoastal flooding and salinisation of freshwater lagoons would negatively affect fisheries and biodiversity (UNDP, 2017). "


id: fe4446e7756e50369c93b98700cb24b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42105
content:
"The low-lying northern coast and Nile Delta region are a high priority for adaptation to climate change (UNDP, 2017). The Egyptian \r\ngovernment has committed 200 million USD to hard coastal protection at Alexandria and adopted integrated coastal zone management \r\nfor the northern coast. Recent activities include integrating SLR risks within adaptation planning for social-ecological systems, with special \r\nfocus on coastal urban areas, agriculture, migration and other human security dimensions (Government of Egypt, 2016; UNDP, 2017)."


id: 795ed23032d2e494433cd52c739a078c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18550
content:
"Box 4.1, Table 3 | Current coastal flood risk management and adaptation practices in the Nile Delta and possible refinements using the new sea level rise (SLR) and \r\nextreme sea level (ESL) projections of this report, as well as findings on adaptation options, decision making approaches and governance (Practice Consistent with \r\nSROCC Assessment). See Elshinnawy et al. (2010) and text above for data sources for current practice. See Box 4.1, Figure 1 for ESL event values."


id: 75c7d053aa93053e89daf197f4f77b93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17952
content:
"Exposure of coastal natural ecosystems to RSL and related coastal \r\nhazards change by two means: alterations in the spatial coverage \r\nand distribution of ecosystems within the potentially exposed \r\narea; and changes in the size of the exposed area caused by \r\nrelative SLR. The vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to SLR and \r\nrelated coastal hazards differs strongly across ecosystem types \r\nand depends on human interventions (e.g.,  land use change and \r\nfragmentation, coastal squeeze and anthropogenic subsidence) and \r\ndegradation (e.g., pollution), as well as climate change, including \r\nchanges in temperature and precipitation patterns. SLR and its \r\nphysical impacts, such as flooding or salinisation, also increase \r\necosystems' vulnerability and decrease the ecosystems' ability to \r\nsupport livelihoods and provide ecosystem services such as coastal \r\nprotection. Healthy, diverse, connected coastal ecosystems support "


id: c8ccf137b49dd5000842f7913af894e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32652
content:
"This box highlights recent advances in methodologies in assessing exposure and vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) and its physical \r\nimpacts, such as coastal flooding since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5). In few cases it also leverages methodological advances, \r\nwhich have not been yet applied in the coastal context but have great potential to inform coastal assessments."


id: 125371e6df15bd7dbb6e8cf42bf50b51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 429
content:
"Since the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (SREX) report, vulnerability has been \r\nmore  consistently considered in climate risk assessments (medium confidence). It is recognised that climate risk is not only \r\nhazard-driven, but also a sociopolitical and economic phenomenon that evolves with changing societal and institutional conditions \r\n(high confidence). Many studies related to climate risk and adaptation include vulnerability assessments, most of them considering \r\nvulnerability as a pre-existing condition while some interpret vulnerability as an outcome (Jurgilevich et al., 2017). "


id: f4121a799a674b37e206bae1ad1191f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40311
content:
"conditions through co-production (Jurgilevich et al., 2017). Recent innovations in (flood) risk assessment include the integration of \r\nbehaviour into risk assessments (Aerts et al., 2018b) as well as vulnerabilities related to cascading events (Serre and Heinzlef, 2018). "


