# document

id: 28b1b7b92e2ea2e39a98816c39d65021
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4375
content:
"While contributing to poverty reduction in some mountain \r\nregions, there is limited evidence of adaptations effectively \r\ncontributing to the remediation of underlying social \r\ndeterminants of vulnerability, such as gender and ethnicity \r\n(medium confidence). Exposure and vulnerability exacerbate the \r\nnegative effects of climate impacts on livelihoods and intertwine \r\nwith power imbalances and gender and other inequalities (medium \r\nconfidence). {CCP5.2.7; CCP5.3.2.2}"


id: beebb5477d9fb29190fb0981d089eb2c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30852
content:
"The spatial distributions of many plant species have shifted \r\nto higher elevations in recent decades, consistent with rising \r\ntemperatures across most mountain regions (high confidence). \r\nAround two-thirds of treeline ecotones have also shifted upwards in \r\nrecent decades, though these shifts are not ubiquitous and slower than \r\nexpected based on rising temperatures (high confidence). Impacts on \r\nbiological communities and animal species are also increasingly being \r\nreported, with species of lower elevations increasing in mountain \r\nregions, creating more homogeneous vegetation and increasing risks \r\nto mountain-top species (medium confidence). {CCP5.2.1; 2.4}"


id: e8da0bb4587187157347f8ad4af8f52e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38321
content:
"Climate and cryosphere change have negatively impacted the \r\nwater cycle in mountains, including variable timing of glacier \r\nmelt and snowmelt stream discharge (high confidence). These \r\nchanges have variable impacts on water availability for people \r\nand economies, contributing to increasing tensions or conflicts \r\nover water resources, especially in seasonally dry regions \r\n(medium confidence). Mountains are an essential source of freshwater \r\nfor large and growing populations; the number of people largely or fully \r\ndependent on water from mountains has increased worldwide from \r\napproximately 0.6 billion in the 1960s to approximately 2 billion in the \r\npast decade, and globally two-thirds of irrigated agriculture depends on \r\nessential runoff contributions from mountains. {CCP5.2.2; Figure CCP5.2; \r\nSROCC Chapter 2; 4.2.2.3; 4.4.4.1}"


id: 7a20b404bd3ca7756c990cf47ff63d3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18687
content:
"Climate change is projected to lead to profound changes \r\nand irreversible losses in mountain regions with negative \r\nconsequences for ways of life and cultural identity (medium \r\nconfidence). Intangible losses and loss of cultural values will become \r\nincreasingly more widespread in mountain regions, mainly driven by a \r\ndecline in snow and ice and an increase in intangible harm to people \r\nfrom hazards (medium confidence). However, there is limited evidence\r\non the magnitude of the consequences. {CCP5.3.2.4; 16.5.2.1; \r\n16.5.2.3.7}"


id: 28645c31f5131e953be2f562d3b37986
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4312
content:
"further downstream (high confidence). As a result, the number of \r\ndisasters has increased; however, there is limited evidence that this is \r\ndue to changes in the underlying hazard processes, pointing mainly \r\nto increasing levels of exposure (medium confidence). {CCP5.2.6; \r\nCCP5.2.7; CCP5.3.2.1}."


id: a84828ff95db27c1b026e607f9edd70c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26828
content:
"Adaptation responses to climate-driven impacts in mountain \r\nregions vary significantly in terms of goals and priorities, scope, \r\ndepth and speed of implementation, governance and modes of \r\ndecision-making and the extent of financial and other resources \r\nto implement them (high confidence). Observed adaptation \r\nresponses in mountains are largely incremental and mainly focus on \r\nearly warning systems and the diversification of livelihood strategies \r\nin smallholder agriculture, pastoralism and tourism. However, there is \r\nlimited evidence of the feasibility and long-term effectiveness of these \r\nmeasures in addressing climate-related impacts and related losses and \r\ndamages, including in cities and settlements experiencing changing \r\ndemographics. {CCP5.2.4; CCP5.2.7.2}"


id: 217be72a3b44ca3c828a0468a5a6f0a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The current pace, depth and scope of adaptation are insufficient \r\nto address future risks in mountain regions, particularly at higher \r\nwarming levels (high confidence). While the incremental nature of \r\nmost implemented adaptations will not be sufficient to reduce severe risk \r\nconsequences, options exist which offer practical and timely prospects to \r\naddress risks before limits to adaptation are reached or exceeded. Reducing \r\nclimate risks will depend on addressing the root causes of vulnerability, \r\nwhich include poverty, marginalisation and inequitable gender dynamics \r\n(high confidence). {CCP5.4.1, Figure  CCP5.7: CCP5.4.2, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox DEEP in Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17; 17.3, \r\n17.6}"


id: 94bb925bd8bf4876b9845282bdc60515
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23375
content:
"Increasing temperatures will continue to induce changes \r\nin mountain regions throughout the 21st century, with \r\nexpected negative consequences for mountain cryosphere, \r\nbiodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being (very \r\nhigh confidence). Many low-elevation and small glaciers around the \r\nworld will lose most of their total mass at a 1.5degC global warming \r\nlevel (GWL) (high confidence). A large majority of endemic mountain \r\nspecies will be at risk of extinction; regions heavily relying on glacier \r\nmelt and snowmelt for irrigation will face erratic water supply and \r\nincreased food insecurity, whereas agriculture in some regions might \r\nsee positive changes. Damages and losses from water-related hazards \r\nsuch as floods and landslides are projected to increase considerably \r\nbetween 1.5degC and 3degC GWL. {CCP5.3.1}"


id: 4b2bc4e3fd65b64aa49a35e6c70661d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 10470
content:
"Adaptation decision-making processes that engage with and \r\nincorporate people's concerns and values and address multiple \r\nrisks are more robust than those with a narrow focus on \r\nsingle risks (medium confidence). Risk management strategies \r\nthat better integrate the adaptation needs of all affected sectors, \r\naccount for different risk perceptions and build on multiple and \r\ndiverse knowledge systems, including Indigenous knowledge and local \r\nknowledge, are important enabling conditions to reduce risk severity \r\n(medium confidence). {CCP5.2.6, CCP5.4.2; 17.3; 17.4; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox PROGRESS in Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17}"


id: bc64099dc49082e07bbddd3614f80645
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30388
content:
"Projected changes in hazards, such as floods and landslides, \r\nas well as changes in the water cycle, will lead to severe risk \r\nconsequences for people, infrastructure and the economy in \r\nmany mountain regions (high confidence). These risks will be more \r\npervasive and increase more rapidly in south and central Asia and \r\nnorthwestern South America. However, nearly all mountain regions \r\nwill face at least moderate and some regions even high risks at around \r\n2degC GWL (medium confidence). {CCP5.3.2.1, CCP5.3.2.2}"


id: c2bcf4855239e0fb837c6a461d0edbc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 31545
content:
"Regional cooperation and transboundary governance in \r\nmountain regions, supported by multi-scale knowledge \r\nnetworks and monitoring programmes, enable long-term \r\nadaptation actions where risks transcend boundaries and \r\njurisdictions (medium confidence). Collectively, they show potential \r\nto form an important component of the adaptation solution space in \r\nmountains. There are increasing calls for more ambitious climate action \r\nin mountains, providing impetus for stronger cooperation within and \r\nacross mountain regions and downstream areas (medium confidence). \r\n{CCP5.4.2; CCP5.4.3}"


id: a7d02eb0c780e5504908ff62913f00f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26735
content:
"There is an increasing risk of local and global species extinctions \r\nwhere species are not able to move to higher elevations \r\nor other cooler locations (high confidence), with risks from \r\nextreme events such as wildfire potentially exacerbating those \r\nrisks (medium confidence). The topographic variation in mountains, \r\nsuch as elevation or aspect, may mean that some species will be \r\nable to survive in cooler microclimates. Mountain regions may act as \r\nrefugia for some species from lower elevations if they can move into \r\nthem. This may enable some species to persist in a region, though it \r\nmay pose a threat to cold-adapted species, including endemics, which \r\nmay be outcompeted (high confidence); invasive non-native species \r\nmay become an increasing problem in some places. {CCP5.3.2.3, \r\nBox CCP5.1; CCP1.2.2.1; 2.6.6; 16.6.3.1}"


id: d2e56c235625ae75b9c8a4ae008a8817
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34452
content:
"With warming above 1.5degC, the need for adaptation to address \r\nkey risks in mountains becomes increasingly urgent (high \r\nconfidence). Pathways and system transitions that strengthen \r\nclimate-resilient sustainable mountain development are starting to \r\nreceive attention, but current levels of resourcing are substantially \r\ninsufficient to support timely action. {CCP5.4.2; CCP5.4.3; CCP5.5; \r\n18.1; 18.2}"


id: 681d48dcb6f042bb4340949a4ec605f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15584
content:
"supporting evidence found in the literature, a detection and attribution \r\nassessment (SMCCP5.2) and a reanalysis of the mountain literature \r\ncollected and synthesised in the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative \r\n(GAMI) (SMCCP5.3). Section 5.3 presents an assessment of future key \r\nrisks in mountains drawing from the regional and sectorial chapters and \r\na key risks assessment carried out for this CCP (SMCCP5.4). Section 5.4 \r\nexplores the solution space for future adaptation opportunities and \r\nconstraints as well as climate resilient development in mountains. This \r\nCCP concludes with key assessment limitations and knowledge gaps \r\nand prospects for addressing these gaps in Section 5.5."


id: ad4f495cc8eb55e557150e90bd8c127f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27734
content:
"Mountains are an extensive and significant typological region\r\n(Section  1.3.3 and Annex II: Glossary) in the context of climate \r\nchange and sustainable development, with large populations directly \r\nor indirectly depending on them. Further, mountains are areas of \r\nhigh biological and cultural diversity that provide vital goods and \r\nservices--such as water, food, energy, minerals, medicinal plants, \r\ntourism and recreation and aesthetic and spiritual values--to people \r\nliving in and around these mountain regions and in downstream \r\nareas. Mountain regions are hotspots of climate-related losses in, for \r\nexample, ecosystems, landscapes, culture and habitability, and while \r\nmountain people are adaptive, resourceful and independent, they live \r\nin highly fragile environments and in some regions under challenging \r\nsocioeconomic circumstances that increase their vulnerability to \r\nclimate change (Alfthan et al., 2018)."


id: 232b541d67d6ae82157fb184ba325574
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3388
content:
"Chapter 2, 'High Mountain Areas', (Hock et  al., 2019) of the IPCC's \r\nSROCC, presented an assessment of observed changes in the high \r\nmountain cryosphere, their impacts in situ and further downstream and \r\nthe state of adaptation responses to these impacts. Before SROCC, the \r\nlast time climate change in mountain regions had been systematically \r\nassessed in IPCC reports was in Chapter 5 of the Second Assessment \r\nReport (SAR) (Beniston et al., 1996). Projections made at the time for \r\nclimate-related changes in mountain regions were expected towards \r\nthe middle and the second half of the 21st century, rather than as \r\nearly as recent decades (Haeberli and Beniston, 2021), underscoring \r\nthe striking pace of change already observed in mountain regions."


id: 20ed8e198669f184bbac7c89fd0bc55d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3013
content:
"Whereas SROCC focused on impacts from a changing climate on the \r\nhigh mountain cryosphere, this CCP on mountains synthesises key \r\nrelevant content from across the AR6 WGII report with a broader \r\nscope on the impacts of and adaptation to climate change in mountain \r\nregions as defined for this assessment (Figure CCP5.1, SMCCP5.1). It \r\nprovides a wider assessment of the solution space and consequences \r\nfor sustainable development due to climate change in mountain \r\nregions and downstream areas."


id: 28c17b8dd74fb502b756395bd1ed8b37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4386
content:
"To define the geographical scope of the assessment in this CCP and \r\nto quantify the human population residing within these regions, the \r\nmountain characterisation given by Kapos et al. (2000) (Figure CCP5.1a \r\nand SMCCP5.1), minus Antarctica, Svalbard and Greenland (which fall \r\nunder the assessment scope of CCP6 Polar Regions), was employed. \r\nThis characterisation is consistent with the mountain region extents \r\nused in the AR6 WGI report (see AR6 WGI Atlas (Gutierrez et al., 2021)) \r\nand yields a global mountainous area of 31.74  million km2\r\n, which \r\ncorresponds to approximately 23.5% of the global land surface. In \r\n2015, a total of 1.28  billion people resided in mountain regions as \r\ndelineated for this CCP (SMCCP5.1)."


id: eb08a0a0bb7fc5bd7bb3b4dc688eacfd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"There are interactions with land use, for example a decrease in forest cover can \r\nexacerbate the effects of rising temperatures (Guo et al., 2018). In contrast, \r\nBhatta et  al. (2018) showed a downward shift of species assemblages in \r\nLangtang National Park, Nepal, most likely related to interactions with land \r\nuse, especially reduced grazing. Where glaciers retreat, new areas become \r\navailable for pioneer species to colonise and new communities to form (Cuesta \r\net al., 2019; Hock et al., 2019; Muhlfeld et al., 2020). The risk of extreme events \r\nsuch as wildfire, drought, floods and landslips is increasing in a wide range of \r\nplaces as a result of climate change, and the evidence of the disturbance they \r\ncause to ecosystems has grown in recent decades (Section 2.3.1, Box CCP5.1). \r\nThe impacts of such extreme events may be greater than those of incremental \r\nchanges."


id: 2ba2380aeb3acd6720c33b172093c3db
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4931
content:
"The scope of the assessment presented in this CCP covers observed \r\nand projected climate change impacts in mountains, present, emerging \r\nand future key risks and observed adaptation responses, leading to \r\nan exploration of the adaptation solution space and climate resilient \r\ndevelopment (pathways) in mountains. Section 5.2 presents observed \r\nimpacts and adaptation responses by synthesising information on \r\nmountains in the sectoral and regional chapters of WGII AR6, additional "


id: 7bff6648b4a936c53303cd83b594aa98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19023
content:
"For species at lower elevations, mountains may represent refugia to which \r\nspecies can retreat. In this respect, Elsen et  al. (2018) highlighted the \r\nimportance of protecting areas along elevational gradients. This applies "


id: 5e3590b974bd41a1e74346756a6c5bbe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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"Figure CCP5.1 |  Delineation of mountain regions in CCP Mountains, population numbers and densities in 2015 and their projections to 2100.\r\n(a) Population in mountain regions in 2015 aggregated per IPCC WGII Continental Regions, considering population densities, mountain areas and total population in mountain \r\nregions. "


id: a4aa7f2c54cf07aed0de493054e0a7a2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"(b) Population projections in mountain regions by 2100 for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. "


id: 7bb3293d0494fc2be064410c980ae5cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18973
content:
"(c) Projected changes in population in mountain regions from 2015 to 2100 across five different SSP scenarios, per IPCC WGII Continental Region (SMCCP5.1 and Tables \r\nSMCCP5.1-5.4)."


id: 86433a4e36d12e83bfb3c5d80735fb0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20777
content:
"grass-shrub vegetation. In addition, land use and management exert an \r\ninfluence in many mountains around the world. Suwal et al. (2016) found \r\nthat elevational shifts in Himalayan silver fir in Nepal were larger when \r\nareas were protected from management. Similarly, Lutz et al. (2014) found \r\nfaster treeline shifts in the Peruvian Andes in protected areas than that \r\nin other areas, where cattle grazing and fires are more frequent. Treeline \r\necotones can also change independently of climate change if land use \r\nchanges (Vitali et al., 2019; Korner, 2020)."


id: 494d473306f57ee6baff8b06869583ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10118
content:
"to freshwater and terrestrial habitats with mountain streams acting as \r\npotential refugia (Isaak et al., 2016). In contrast, species restricted to the \r\nhighest elevations are increasingly at risk, including from competition with \r\ncolonising species (Britton et al., 2016; Winkler et al., 2016). Mountain\u0002top species are often separated from potential new habitats by large \r\nareas with unsuitable climates, and tropical mountain species often \r\nhave particularly narrow thermal tolerance and limited dispersal capacity \r\n(Polato et al., 2018)."


id: 4994299c8e04fb87a00a8b6a2627dd1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10175
content:
"Changes in mountain biodiversity and ecosystems have a wide \r\nrange of impacts on ecosystem services and effects on people. Some \r\nmountain ecosystems, particularly those with peatlands or forests, \r\nare important carbon stores, and climate change presents a risk to \r\nthese in some locations (Dwire et al., 2018) (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.4.4.4 \r\nand 2.4.4.5). Palomo (2017) identified a wide range of threats to the \r\nlives, livelihoods and culture of mountain people as a consequence of \r\nthe impacts of climate change on ecosystems. However, impacts are \r\nvery heterogeneous between locations, even within the same region \r\nand ecosystem type (e.g., mountain forests in Europe) (Mina et  al. \r\n(2017) and are not necessarily all negative. In addition to changes \r\nin services, other impacts on humans from a changing climate may \r\nbe mediated through species and ecosystems, for example changes \r\nin vector distribution shifting disease incidence into higher elevation \r\nareas (Escobar et al., 2016)."


id: 16bd3733a8b06474a9526b5a9ed89909
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"Whether treeline shifts occur, and if so at what rate, depends on a range \r\nof factors, including land use (especially livestock grazing and fire), \r\nspecies interactions, wildfires and climatic stress factors (wind, frost, \r\ndrought, excess or shortage of snow) interacting with tree population \r\nprocesses (viable seed production, dispersal, seedling establishment, \r\nclonal propagation, growth, dieback, mortality). Differences in treeline \r\nshifts between north- and south-facing slopes have been demonstrated in \r\nthe Rocky Mountains (Elliott and Cowell, 2015). Grigorieva and Moiseev \r\n(2018) showed that significant factors limiting the number of seedlings \r\nand shoots are the snow depth, the topsoil temperature dependent \r\non it and the degree of competition from the parental tree stand and "


id: 96aabce95c3df9e6150b46607f9fab1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"Water is a fundamental source of life in mountain regions; it is also \r\na central element and 'connector' in coupled natural-human systems \r\nand carries diverse meanings in different sociocultural contexts, \r\nincluding in indigenous ontologies (Boelens, 2014). In addition, water \r\nis a key component connecting upstream mountains and downstream \r\nlowlands (Salzmann et al., 2016; Di Baldassarre et al., 2018; Encalada \r\net al., 2019). Mountains are of paramount importance as water towers "


id: 1e0c2dfa2e1604703b5d03f9b303f44e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"for people living there and for around two billion people living in \r\nconnected lowland areas (Immerzeel et al., 2020; Viviroli et al., 2020)."


id: 273d6ff7eb30c830ad28e9b6dc28759e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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"2020; Chen et al., 2021). Groundwater contributions to streamflow are \r\nhighly variable in mountains but can be substantial (up to 70 to 80% \r\nor more) during low-flow periods (Frisbee et al., 2011; Baraer et al., \r\n2015; Gordon et al., 2015; Kaser and Hunkeler, 2016; Somers et al., \r\n2019). Groundwater may provide some resilience to loss of melt water \r\nfrom glacier and snow decline, but in the longer term groundwater \r\nrecharge and contribution to streamflow are expected to decrease with \r\nongoing climate change (medium confidence) (Somers and McKenzie, \r\n2020). In some mountain regions (e.g., in the Himalaya), springs are a \r\nparticularly important source of water where large populations depend \r\non them. Observations indicate a reduction of water provision from \r\nsprings in recent years in the Himalaya, caused by multiple causal \r\nfactors (human interventions, climatic) (Section 10.4.4.)."


id: 1fe6201b4125e6d25bf7891102ade3c4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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vector_id: 2823
content:
"Figure CCP5.2 represents different levels of dependences of lowland \r\nareas on mountain water. At a global scale, 68% of irrigated agricultural \r\nareas in lowlands depend on essential runoff contributions from the \r\nmountains. The dependence of lowland populations on essential \r\nmountain runoff contributions increased by a factor of more than three \r\nfrom the 1960s to the 2000s, with increases of up to ten-fold in some \r\nmajor river catchments (Viviroli et al., 2020)."


id: 5259e11829bc6b384a06508f488c9c3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"Water plays a fundamental role in climate change adaptation in \r\nmountains. A majority of documented adaptation efforts in mountain \r\nregions address water-related aspects (precipitation variability \r\nand extremes, including drought, water availability, floods) (high \r\nconfidence) (McDowell et  al., 2019, 2020). This is a robust finding \r\nacross different mountain regions and adaptation project and \r\nprogramme types and is in line with findings for cryosphere-change\u0002related adaptation, as reported in SROCC (Hock et al., 2019). Water \r\nalso plays a role in adaptation in other sectors, such as agriculture, \r\ndisaster management, and tourism and recreation (McDowell et  al., \r\n2019). There is high confidence that water conservation efforts, \r\nincluding restoration and protection of particularly vulnerable areas \r\n(e.g., wetlands) and increase in efficiency in water use, are robust, low\u0002regret adaptation measures."


id: c266dfc4021e331b37e0561e0d01fa73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31483
content:
"Increasing temperatures and variability in precipitation and river flow \r\naffect energy availability and use in mountain regions. Mountain \r\npeoples, more so than national or global populations, are dependent \r\non local sources of energy, accentuating climate adaptation cost \r\nand barriers (medium evidence, high agreement), while also offering "


id: 618c0d64235787482adfab69e24eecc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14454
content:
"The effects of climate and environmental changes in upstream areas on \r\ndownstream water quantity and quality, including nutrient, pollutant, \r\nheavy metals and sediment flux, have been assessed in only a limited \r\nnumber of catchments (Rakhmatullaev et al., 2009; Dong et al., 2015; \r\nMilner et al., 2017; Ilyashuk et al., 2018; Lane et al., 2019; Li et al., "


id: 83ccc4429530b95cac2aa88807ac1b64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20333
content:
"Mountain ecosystems have long been known to be highly sensitive to the direct impacts of climatic warming and drying (Beniston et al., \r\n1994; Nogues-Bravo, 2009; Gottfried et al., 2012; Guisan et al., 2019). Furthermore, wildfires in these ecosystems, as in many others \r\n(Sections 2.4.4.2 and 2.5.3.2), are also expected to increase (Abatzoglou et al., 2019). This is because the occurrence and severity of fire \r\nare governed by four fundamental processes that are intricately linked to climate: 1) fuel biomass growth, 2) fuel moisture and type, 3) \r\nignition source and 4) favourable weather conditions for fire spread (Bradstock, 2010)."


id: 88ba1212975cc17a6408f9275d3b00d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21216
content:
"In temperate and tropical mountain ecosystems, increases in fire activity are potentially linked to changing climate on most continents, \r\nincluding Europe (Dupire et al., 2017), North America (Westerling, 2016; Halofsky et al., 2020; Burke et al., 2021), South America (Roman\u0002Cuesta et al., 2014), Africa (Hemp, 2005), Asia (Tian et al., 2014) and Australia (Bradstock et al., 2014; Abram et al., 2021). In these \r\necosystems, fire frequency, severity and extent (i.e., the fire regime) are increasing because of climate-induced impacts on fuel moisture \r\n(Gergel et al., 2017; Littell et al., 2018), vegetation composition (i.e., fuel types) (Camac et al., 2017; Prichard et al., 2017; Zylstra, 2018), \r\nfire-conducive weather patterns and the length of fire seasons (Westerling, 2016; Fill et al., 2019; Di Virgilio et al., 2020)."


id: 4c8a11f0698654b4a5a0711a88498bbf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10727
content:
"Fire in mountain ecosystems alters many ecological processes and ecosystem services across all elevational zones, from foothill montane \r\nforests to high-elevation alpine (treeless) zones (Turner et al., 2003; Williams et al., 2008; Oliveras et al., 2014, 2018; Rocca et al., 2014). \r\nHowever, the magnitude of short-term and long-term fire impacts depends on the degree of novelty of future fire regimes and the \r\ncapacity of species to adapt to change (Camac et al., 2017, 2021; Archibald et al., 2018)."


id: a4beb09ba4d19d2458b2a6c8c5f7b9b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26206
content:
"Taken together, this evidence suggests that a significant risk exists of wildfire exacerbating other impacts of climate change on already \r\nvulnerable ecosystems in many mountain regions (medium confidence)."


id: fadff4ad567e4966b443fe798f211c02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41518
content:
"Figure CCP5.2 |  Dependence of land surface areas and population on mountain water resources, 1961-2050. Results are shown as decadal averages for lowland \r\npopulations in each category of dependence on mountain water from no surplus and negligible to essential; "


id: 7fbe1cdb473bfd1a7a0f597541922160
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19610
content:
"(b) map of lowland populations and their differentiated dependence on mountain water resources, both for the scenario combination SSP2-RCP6.0 and for the time period \r\n2041-2050; "


id: c5e2b3a30ec2e97f35f51ba7496ac35b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32124
content:
"(c) number of lowland populations and their differentiated dependence on mountain water resources from 1960s to 2040s for three different scenario combinations (based on \r\nViviroli et al., 2020)."


id: 79238aef387606f645a3c2a3a1446922
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18501
content:
"opportunities for mountain-specific solutions (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). In mountain regions, inadequate infrastructure (Tiwari \r\net al., 2018), remoteness and reliance on traditional forms of energy \r\nthat may be difficult to diversify (Dhakal et al., 2019) exacerbate the \r\nimpacts of climate change on energy use and demand."


id: baf25d372239d11fb4cc2bfeacae156e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30104
content:
"et al., 2017; Rojas-Downing et al., 2017; Chitale et al., 2018; Pretzsch \r\net al., 2018; Barberan et al., 2019; Sultan et al., 2019; Huang and Hao, \r\n2020; Godde et al., 2021), and ecosystem services (Gret-Regamey and \r\nWeibel, 2020) across many different mountainous regions, for example in \r\nAfrica (Bonde et al., 2019; Musakwa et al., 2020), Asia (Guo et al., 2018; \r\nSunderland and Vasquez, 2020), Europe (Nair, 2019), North America \r\n(Hupp et  al., 2015; Prevey et  al., 2020) and South America (Herman\u0002Mercer et al., 2020) (Sections 5.4, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.6.2, 5.7, 5.11.1.1)."


id: b407821b25c841143e5f8cbfe5c3eb8b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28916
content:
"A review of the renewable energy transition in the context of \r\nadaptation across global mountain regions, including hydropower, \r\nwind, solar and biomass, shows that observed climate change impacts \r\non these energy sources include altered seasonality, timing as related \r\nto snow and glacial melt runoff (30.9% of analysed cases), variable \r\nor declining precipitation and runoff (26.4%), increased flooding \r\n(15.5%), altered wind patterns (8.2%) and other/unspecified effects \r\n(19.1%) (Scott et al., 2019). The combined effects of climate change, \r\nhydropower development and further anthropogenic effects in \r\nupstream mountain basins have increased and are expected to further \r\nnegatively affect several aspects of ecosystem functioning and water \r\nsecurity (e.g., negative effects on river geometry, water chemistry, \r\nsediment transport, fish composition and migration) (high confidence) \r\n(Anderson et al., 2018; Encalada et al., 2019; Lepcha et al., 2021)."


id: 3aa04ef6db4a57d30d07c7fc598eba64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7519
content:
"Ecosystem products are vital to support the livelihoods and \r\neconomic prospects for communities living in and around mountains \r\n(Figure CCP5.3). For instance, collection and trade of caterpillar fungus \r\ncontributed to 53.3-64.5% annual household cash income in Nepal \r\n(Shrestha and Bawa, 2014; Shrestha et al., 2019); 40-80% in Bhutan \r\n(Thapa et al., 2018) and 60-78% in Uttarakhand, India (Laha et al., 2018; \r\nYadav et al., 2019) (Section 5.7.1). Livelihood support from ecosystem \r\nproducts in southern Malawi (Pullanikkatil et al., 2020), southwestern \r\nEthiopian mountains (Nischalke et  al., 2017), Southern China (Min \r\net al., 2017), Himalayan mountains (Nepal et al., 2018) and South Africa \r\n(Ngwenya et al., 2019) has been reported. Additionally, the sacredness \r\nof mountains in different religions and cultures is widely acknowledged \r\n(Ceruti, 2019; Benedetti et al., 2021)."


id: 8021cfc6f026c776e6f28720b745c90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19672
content:
"Overall, synergies between adaptation to climate change and renewable \r\nenergy transition can be successfully generated where benefit-sharing \r\nimproves local involvement and support, adaptive capacity is enhanced, \r\nlocal health and livelihoods supported, Sustainable Development Goals \r\n(SDGs) met, environmental justice considered and sustainable mountain \r\ndevelopment pursued (high agreement, medium evidence)."


id: a11621a4757dd23e4c0399d685254943
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25562
content:
"There is high confidence that climate change is largely negatively \r\nimpacting food, fibre and other ecosystem products, including agriculture \r\n(Porter et al., 2014; Ingxay et al., 2015; Upgupta et al., 2015; Chirwa "


id: dbeaff7521c1e717968282f29d8bc27a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35975
content:
"Poverty\r\nFood, nutrition and health insecurity\r\nOutmigration \r\nIncrease in area of fallow land\r\n[CCB-MIGRATE]\r\n[CCP5.2.3, CCP5.2.5]"


id: fa4269214cb43320ffb4c6ada1e0eed0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41401
content:
"Decreasing regeneration potential \r\nThreatening native and endemic species\r\n[CCP-BOX 5.1, CCP5.2.1, CCP5.2.3] "


id: f4f3b2df6ea0ee689f9aed1a87398ffd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40459
content:
" Impact of climate change on mountain social-ecological systems, including ecosystem services and products, livelihoods of mountain \r\nmples of adaptation options to address direct and indirect impacts."


id: 63352cb7e1972a42e147b872593ce7f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14746
content:
"factors have been observed to affect the distribution of selected \r\nmedicinal plant species in northern Thailand (Tangjitman et al., 2015), \r\nas well as in Egypt, sub-Saharan Africa, Spain, Central Himalaya, China \r\nand Nepal, with some species at risk of extinction (Munt et al., 2016; \r\nYan et al., 2017; Brunette et al., 2018; Chitale et al., 2018; Zhao et al., \r\n2018; Applequist et al., 2020). Negative climate-related impacts on the \r\ndistribution range of 41 medicinal plant species have been predicted \r\nfor Spanish and Asian mountains (Munt et al., 2016) (Section 5.7.3.3), \r\nas has a decreasing size of fruits of Myrica esculenta in the Himalaya \r\n(Shah and Tewari, 2016)."


id: bbdeecc9d5e7f160fdb0c102108a5bcb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30286
content:
"People living in and around mountain regions strongly depend for \r\ntheir livelihoods, health and well-being on the ecosystem functions, \r\nservices and resources available in these areas. Overall, subsistence \r\nagriculture and livestock remain key sources of livelihood in many \r\nmountain regions (FAO, 2019), with non-agricultural income sources \r\nsuch as remittances, small businesses, medicinal plants, wage labour \r\nand tourism also contributing to these economies (Montanari and \r\nKoutsoyiannis, 2014; Palomo, 2017; Minta et  al., 2018). This section \r\nprovides an illustrative overview of key reported observed impacts of \r\nclimate change on mountain communities and adaptation responses \r\n(Table CCP5.1), as well as impacts on livelihood activities and economic \r\nsectors such as agriculture and pastoralism and tourism and recreation \r\n(Table CCP5.2), reported since AR5."


id: e0031cf25019f5409b6028f75129eb1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36655
content:
"Other sections in this CCP provide detailed assessments that \r\nsynthesise impacts associated with the detection of climate change \r\nand the attribution of those impacts to anthropogenic climate change \r\n(CCP5.2.7), projected impacts and key risks (CCP5.3) and adaptation \r\nresponses to reduce those key risks (CCP5.4.1)."


id: e3edf7c560f44ec1217ce617a09d4859
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37387
content:
"Climate- and weather-related disasters in mountain regions have \r\nincreased over the last three decades (medium confidence). Disaster \r\nfrequency shows increasing trends in the HKH, the Andes and \r\nmountain regions in Africa, whereas no clear trends are observed for \r\nthe European Alps and Central Asia (medium confidence) (Froude and \r\nPetley, 2018; Staubli et al., 2018)."


id: 31eccd4ab4a82ec1584e1af6b361a823
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6037
content:
"Table CCP5.1 |  Overview of key observed impacts and adaptation on mountain communities--livelihoods and poverty; migration, habitability and displacement; health and \r\nwell-being."


id: 119b75bf1dd6811c7d4d63b352816c25
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 289
content:
"Table CCP5.2 |  Overview of key observed impacts and adaptation on select livelihood activities and economic sectors--mountain agriculture and pastoralism, and tourism and \r\nrecreation."


id: cc84e6990f3b50f0c96a20a78595fcd6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33305
content:
"The characteristics of natural hazards in mountain areas have been \r\nwidely explored, and evidence suggests that conditions favouring \r\ncascading impacts are a common feature (high confidence) \r\n(Section 8.2.1.1) (Zimmermann and Keiler, 2015; Huggel et al., 2019; \r\nKirschbaum et al., 2019; Schauwecker et al., 2019; Terzi et al., 2019; \r\nMotschmann et  al., 2020a; Shugar et  al., 2021). Compound and \r\ncascading impacts have affected people, ecosystems and infrastructure \r\nand generate significant spillovers across numerous sectors, resulting \r\nin destructive impacts (Nones and Pescaroli, 2016; Kirschbaum et al., \r\n2019; Schauwecker et al., 2019)."


id: a5cabcd6ab892ec960f2362700d17a5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26393
content:
"2019b). Previous experience and local social contexts of exposure to \r\nclimate-related disasters affect people's perceptions and influence the \r\npatterns associated with disaster risk management and associated \r\ncoping strategies (high confidence) (SROCC Chapter 2 (Hock et  al., \r\n2019)), (Kaul and Thornton, 2014; Shijin and Dahe, 2015; Landeros\u0002Mugica et al., 2016; Wirz et al., 2016; Carey et al., 2017; Adler et al., \r\n2019)."


id: c83c129acd1efb5e7b916cddcb61a371
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32539
content:
"Important synergies exist between disaster risk reduction, climate \r\nchange adaptation and sustainable development in mountain regions \r\n(medium confidence) (Zimmermann and Keiler, 2015), where the \r\nmultiple and diverse perceptions of risk and risk tolerance for natural \r\nhazards are relevant considerations (Schneiderbauer et  al., 2021). \r\nGlobal agreements for integrated disaster risk management and \r\nclimate change adaptation (Alcantara-Ayala et al., 2017), including the \r\nSendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (UNISDR, \r\n2015), the SDGs (UN, 2015), the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015) and \r\nthe New Urban Agenda-Habitat III (UN, 2016), create opportunities \r\nfor synergies to address disaster risks (see also Section 6.3). Although \r\nthese agreements are well established in international agendas, there \r\nis limited evidence of their implementation to address disaster risk \r\nreduction and adaptation in mountains (Alcantara-Ayala et al., 2017)."


id: 692553a0487d45df605e60ca2f04f2e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15767
content:
"Evidence from different mountain regions shows that adaptation and \r\nrisk reduction efforts are less successful if they focus on hazards or \r\nrisks without considering diverse risk and value perceptions of the \r\naffected people (medium confidence) (French et al., 2015; Allen et al., \r\n2018; Hovelsrud et  al., 2018; Kadetz and Mock, 2018; Klein et  al., "


id: b6507bc15dfc7697016c21d6752906be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29291
content:
"The assessment of observed impacts identified a large number of \r\nimpacts across all major mountain regions of the world and for a large \r\nvariety of systems, based on more than 300 references (SMCCP5.2). "


id: a71b32c32ce8a1dd3048c70e4e1b8525
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26615
content:
"The literature was assessed and the results classified on a per-region \r\nand per-system basis. Confidence statements on detection and \r\nattribution are based on expert judgement following IPCC guidelines \r\n(Section  1.3.4), building on evidence from multiple sources in the \r\nliterature (Mach et al., 2017) (SMCCP5.2). Figure CCP5.4 provides an \r\noverview of the assessment results."


id: 3e23455b04c90bd5a3fc629685c87e99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8106
content:
"Of all reported adaptations, 91% involve individuals or households, \r\nfrequently engaged in smallholder agriculture and/or pastoralism; local \r\ngovernments are also often involved (31%), as are sub-national or local \r\ncivil society actors (29%), while private-sector involvement remains \r\nscarce (below 10%). Food, fibre and other ecosystem products (76%) \r\nand poverty, livelihoods and sustainable development (55%) are by far \r\nthe most often reported adaptations in mountains, followed by water \r\nand sanitation (28%) and health, well-being and communities (26%) \r\n(McDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2)."


id: 15e924880875bda35069d786e406de76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1072
content:
"Adaptation measures most commonly found include farming\u0002related changes (e.g., resilient or drought-tolerant crop varieties, \r\nirrigation techniques, crop storage and livestock insurance schemes), \r\ninfrastructure development, Indigenous knowledge, community\u0002based capacity-building and ecosystem-based adaptation (high \r\nconfidence) (McDowell et  al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Nature-based \r\nsolutions (NbS) are an adaptation component in the nationally \r\ndetermined contributions (NDCs) of many mountain countries around \r\nthe world (UNEP, 2021). Furthermore, Indigenous knowledge and \r\nlocal knowledge are often reported as informing adaptation efforts, \r\nand Indigenous Peoples, marginalised people and gender issues are \r\nrecognised in several national adaptation strategies, but autonomous \r\nresponses are often insufficiently understood (Mishra et al., 2019)."


id: 79cfdb04be28c05e79ae9f11e1baa2ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18635
content:
"The GAMI-based reanalysis for mountains indicates that food security \r\n(75%), poverty (47%), consumption and production (36%), terrestrial \r\nand freshwater ecosystem services (19%) and clean water and sanitation \r\n(18%) are important aspects of vulnerability that adaptations address, \r\nwith an emphasis on responses to climate-related shocks and stressors \r\n(McDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.2). The reanalysis also shows that \r\nmore than 80% of adaptations in mountains are behavioural/cultural \r\nin nature, and more than 50% are ecosystem-based or technological \r\nor infrastructural."


id: 78a4d04f6514a9626a9453113684db3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18419
content:
"Local knowledge plays an important role in documenting impacts of \r\nclimate change in mountain regions. Since IPCC AR5, the evidence \r\nfor meaningful climate change impacts being reported using local \r\nknowledge sources has increased substantially (high confidence). \r\nSimilarly, important regional gaps present in the IPCC AR5 are \r\naddressed here (e.g., Africa), resulting in a much more comprehensive \r\nand regionally balanced assessment and perspective."


id: 3f4158a5c928623e1d808f2425a8d4b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8319
content:
"About a third of the assessed adaptation activities are in the planning \r\nand early implementation stage, and around a fifth are in a stage of \r\nadvanced implementation (McDowell et  al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). \r\nSeveral lines of evidence converge, indicating that most observed \r\nadaptations in mountains are incremental in nature and not \r\ntransformative (high confidence) (Mishra et al., 2019; McDowell et al., \r\n2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Nevertheless, some adaptation measures such \r\nas NbS were found to have important transformative potential in \r\nmountains if different knowledge types are combined, and community \r\nengagement and ecosystem management processes are in place \r\n(Palomo et al., 2021)."


id: a1aa2dffa9d35fa932cb16652479da7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25661
content:
"Furthermore, the science of attributing negative impacts of climate \r\nchange to anthropogenic emissions or even individual polluters is \r\nbecoming increasingly important for climate litigation (Marjanac et al., \r\n2017; McCormick et al., 2017; Otto et al., 2017; Setzer and Vanhala, \r\n2019), and there is emerging evidence that mountains are becoming \r\nsites of litigation cases, with cases, for instance, in Peru, Colombia \r\nand India (UNEP, 2017). Recent studies put litigation cases such as \r\nthe Lliuya vs RWE (the German multi-national energy company) \r\ncase, on the risk of glacier lake floods in Peru, in a broader context of \r\ndifferentiated responsibilities and justice (Huggel et al., 2020b)."


id: 1516f4b21bd9d891e4b116425e993e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 923
content:
"Overall, and consistent with the findings in SROCC, the systematic \r\nmonitoring and evaluation processes that have been implemented \r\nto track adaptation progress remain limited, and there is limited \r\nevidence and prevailing uncertainties on the extent to which observed \r\nadaptation efforts reduce risks (Hock et  al., 2019; McDowell et  al., \r\n2021b; UNEP, 2021) (SMCCP5.3.2)."


id: ca6e5caa352c518d092d93a26efd05c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32952
content:
"Extending from recent assessments of observed adaptation in high \r\nmountain areas (Hock et al., 2019; McDowell et al., 2019) new evidence \r\nfor the geographically larger space for mountains assessed in this CCP \r\nis available from a mountain-specific reanalysis of the GAMI data \r\nset, which contains 423  articles reporting adaptation in mountains \r\n(Berrang-Ford et  al., 2021; McDowell et  al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3), \r\nsome of which also include those reported in Section CCP5.2. In \r\nthese articles, adaptation measures in mountains are reported from \r\nall regions worldwide, with a preponderance from Asia and Africa. "


id: b5d365839747a8fbd0c6fed65c6e0dee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29212
content:
"Limits to adaptation are found in a majority (>80%) of the assessed \r\nadaptation studies; around half of the studies reported soft limits, and \r\nless than a third identified both hard and soft limits to adaptation \r\n(high confidence) (McDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Soft limits "


id: c0c7b5832c92bfa38bc39b0460699fc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31212
content:
"a lack of decision-making power among vulnerable groups, along \r\nwith inadequate funding for government-implemented adaptation \r\nprogrammes, are reported to limit adaptation (Mishra et  al., 2019; \r\nMcDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). Hard limits imply that further \r\nadaptation action is unfeasible, ineffective or unacceptable, resulting \r\nin inevitable losses and damages in mountain areas (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement) (Huggel et al., 2019)."


id: fa5dd409478148ac3ea39281451828ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41415
content:
"are frequently related to governance, economics and social/cultural \r\nconstraints and can be overcome in principle through targeted efforts \r\nto address social conditions that impede adaptation planning and \r\naction. Hard limits are more frequently described as biophysical, \r\nsuch as precipitous declines in water supply. Examples of adaptation \r\nlimits include lack of access to credit and markets, fixed livelihoods, \r\ninsufficient awareness of climate risk, poor access to technology, the \r\nerosion of existing skills and knowledge, social inequities, lack of \r\ntrust and social cohesion, inequitable gender norms and perceptions \r\nof conflict or scarcity. Furthermore, land tenure insecurity, poor \r\nintegration of adaptation programmes across governing scales and "


id: e1c86e0aef940508b9d07f585f12f7a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37001
content:
"Overall, adaptation in mountain regions is taking place in various \r\nways, in different sectors, scales, levels, quality, and effectiveness \r\n(high confidence). Most responses are incremental, with asymmetries "


id: e7174a186b50ea5a6c9297d26867aa3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37953
content:
"et al., 2018), secondary metabolites (Chang et al., 2016; Kumar et al., \r\n2020) and pharmacological properties of medicinal plants (Gairola \r\net al., 2010; Das et al., 2016)."


id: b810c75f3b9cdb9c743220adfa17cf7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29601
content:
"of power among state, institutions and individuals, costs or capital \r\nrequirements of adaptation, lack of coordinated planning, resistance \r\nto institutional change, household risk aversion, and lack of access to \r\ninformation inhibiting more transformational responses (SMCCP5.3.2). \r\nAside from poverty reduction, there is limited evidence of adaptations \r\neffectively remediating the underlying social determinants of \r\nvulnerability (e.g., gender, ethnic identity)."


id: db85586ba837a92af00cf5c418889df4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35901
content:
"Declines and extinctions have been projected in a range of montane \r\nplants and animal species, including rare endemic species and sub\u0002species due to climate change (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Li et al., 2017; Ashrafzadeh et al., 2019; Brunetti et al., 2019; Zhang \r\net al., 2019b; Manes et al., 2021). Up to 84% of endemic mountain \r\nspecies are found to be at risk of extinction (Manes et al., 2021). Using \r\na simple model, Helmer et al. (2019) predict a large-scale contraction in \r\nthe next 25 years of alpine ecosystems above tropical mountain cloud \r\nforest in the Andes due to tree invasion. Topographic complexity can \r\nsmoothen and delay the transition of montane forests in terms of size \r\nand composition for warming up to 3degC GWL (Albrich et al., 2020)."


id: 3851ffd4176c535a11fa171a87ce5d31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7116
content:
"Hydrological changes will determine how some ecosystems change, \r\nmore so than changes in temperature. For example, Dwire et al. (2018) \r\nfound that changes in riparian areas, wetlands and forests were likely \r\na result of climate change in the Blue Mountains in Oregon, USA, as a \r\nresult of altered snowpack, hydrologic regimes, drought and wildfire. In \r\nthe Bolivian Cordillera Real, wetland cover variations were associated \r\nwith increases in extreme precipitation events and glacier melting over \r\nthe 1984-2011 period but might be reversed with predicted future \r\ndecreases in both total precipitation and glacier run-off (Dangles et al., \r\n2017). About 30% of the wetland area in the Great Xing'an Mountains \r\nin northeastern China has been projected to disappear by 2050, with \r\nthis value doubling by 2100 under the CGCM3-B1 scenario (Liu et al., \r\n2011)."


id: 28009a8bdcc9a46aca45a3e354b80d99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4236
content:
"to national energy supplies, in particular in the High Mountain Asia \r\nregion (Farinotti et  al., 2019). However, water supply from glacier \r\nmelt will decrease once source glaciers pass peak discharge (Huss \r\nand Hock, 2018), and the areas with available sediment will grow as \r\nglaciers shrink, posing potential risks to downstream populations and \r\nassets (high confidence) (Lane et al., 2019)."


id: ddedbe77f6b1e946b0a7e741fe05134a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36308
content:
"Key risks are derived from the detection and attribution assessment \r\n(CCP5.2.7) and from the projected impacts and risks (CCP5.3.1). \r\nThe assessment is informed by evidence in the regional and sectoral \r\nchapters and supports the key risk assessment in Chapter 16. Four key \r\nrisks (KR1 to KR4) have been identified in this CCP and are presented in \r\nSections CCP5.3.2.1-CCP5.3.2.4 (see SMCCP5.4 for methodology and \r\nreferences)."


id: c6bce21d716618b5318259eb0ac22ea7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32267
content:
"The amount of people and infrastructure at risk of landslides will \r\nincrease in regions where the frequency and intensity of rainfall events is \r\nprojected to rise (Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016; Haque et al., 2019). Extreme \r\nprecipitation in major mountain regions is projected to increase, leading \r\nto consequences such as floods and landslides (medium confidence). \r\nRain-on-snow events, which can accelerate all flood stages and result \r\nin widespread consequence for societies, are projected to increase \r\nbetween 2degC and 4degC GWL (but decrease afterwards) (SROCC Chapter \r\n2 (Hock et al., 2019), AR6 WGI Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)). \r\nThere is high confidence that glacial retreat, slope instabilities and heavy \r\nprecipitation will affect landslides and flood activities, although for \r\nlandslides there are considerable uncertainties in the direction of change \r\n(Patton et al., 2019, AR6 WGI Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021))."


id: 3e83c6e3ee109532b2cc9e6233663d50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8186
content:
"KR2 encompasses the relative and absolute dependence on water \r\nresources for economic activities and livelihood sustainment in \r\nmountain regions and in lowlands (Table  SMCCP5.19). Particularly "


id: f341bfd7bba67298be3ff10aebcae869
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40177
content:
"People and infrastructure in mountain regions at risks of landslides and/or floods\r\nfor 1.3-1.7degC, 2.0-2.5degC and 4degC Global Warming Levels"


id: b628144ce91638b3e345788b093c9413
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29269
content:
"g| pg\r\nPanel a) shows the level of risk assessed per AR6 WGI reference region (AR6 WGI Atlas (Gutierrez et al., 2021)). For some mountain regions, there is limited evidence for \r\nadequately assessing the level of risks against GWLs, so this is labelled 'not assessed'. "


id: 7fa27372aac3e060458e331d0d6a5249
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19593
content:
"Panel b) shows the level of risk aggregated at the continent scale and the principal hazards for which evidence was available and assessed. Methodological details and traceability \r\nare provided in SMCCP5.4, Figure SMCCP5.1, Table SMCCP5.16 and SMCCP5.18."


id: ae8a76efb8f87fb2ed2d8f4a1dbf7018
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27940
content:
"affected by changes in water resources will be regions with (seasonally) \r\nhigh dependence on snow and glacier melt, i.e., arid and semiarid \r\nzones in the Andes, Central Asia and the Upper Indus Basin (Huss et al., \r\n2017; Huss and Hock, 2018; Viviroli et al., 2020) (Section CCP5.3.1)."


id: f971e813fb309f1337044aa4a0e206d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41251
content:
"Consequences that are considered severe refer to the magnitude (number \r\nof people and economic activities affected), timing (increase of water \r\nstress as early as mid-century in several regions) and likelihood (severe \r\nrisk consequences are more likely where high population density is \r\nprojected) (high confidence) (Figures CCP5.1 and CCP5.6, Section 4..5.7 \r\nand 4.7) (Fuhrer et al., 2014; Wijngaard et al., 2018; Biemans et al., 2019; \r\nImmerzeel et al., 2020; Viviroli et al., 2020). Severe consequences are \r\nthat by mid-century more than half of agricultural regions equipped for \r\nirrigation are projected to be dependent on mountain runoff and could \r\ntherefore be unsustainably using blue water (e.g., water from river, \r\nlakes and aquifers) (Viviroli et al., 2020) or that the number of people "


id: 9ab8946c7d4aa676d036ad64049c9c70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24461
content:
"Risks to livelihoods and the economy from changing mountain water resources\r\nbetween 1.5degC and 2degC Global Warming Level in AR6 WGI reference regions"


id: f12b7c66b84eb8a9a140804a89fe759e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39816
content:
"Figure CCP5.6 |  Risk levels assessed per AR6 WGI reference region (AR6 WGI Atlas (Gutierrez et al., 2021)). The majority of studies assessed focus on impacts \r\nup to mid-century (2030-2060) and for RCP-2.6, RCP-4.5 and RCP-6.0, which was converted into the corresponding warming level range 1.5degC-2.0degC GWL (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox CLIMATE in Chapter 1). Methodological details are provided in Section SMCCP5.4, Figure SMCCP5.1, Table SMCCP5.17 and SMCCP5.19. Due to the limited evidence available \r\nto determine risks against high GWLs and the relatively high uncertainty associated with future irrigation trends for the second half of the century (e.g., Viviroli et al., 2020), \r\nassessment of risks associated with GWLs greater than 2.0degC GWL was not conducted."


id: c887ded5dcfd6a3884b3ef86e160706f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32586
content:
"Large-scale and transformative interventions can reduce the high-end \r\nimpacts of changing water resources and in particular the risks of \r\nwater scarcity (Section CCP5.4.1). These interventions have long lead \r\ntimes, are costly and may face institutional constraints (Section  4.7), \r\nresulting in adaptation shortfalls. Therefore, high-risk to very high-risk \r\nlevels cannot be excluded in regions where other key risk characteristics, \r\nsuch as magnitude, timing and likelihood, are assessed as high due to \r\npotential losses (e.g., in many Asian regions) (Figure CC5.6, SMCCP5.4 \r\nand Table SMCCP5.16)."


id: d16409703aad44d4a75c0036907203fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34191
content:
"to mortality at the lower range limit (observed for trees in the neotropics \r\n(Feeley et al., 2013; Duque et al., 2015) or if mountains are not high \r\nenough to allow species to move to higher elevations. Ramirez-Villegas \r\net al. (2014) modelled 11,012 species of birds and vascular plants in \r\nthe Andes and found large decreases by 2050 (SRES-A2 scenario); in \r\nthe absence of dispersal, 10% of species could become extinct. Even \r\nassuming unlimited dispersal, most of the Andean endemics would \r\nbecome severely threatened. Other modelling studies have also \r\nprojected declines in a range of communities and species, including \r\nrare endemics (Zomer et  al., 2014a; Rashid et  al., 2015; Bitencourt \r\net al., 2016; Li et al., 2017; Rehnus et al., 2018; Ashrafzadeh et al., 2019; \r\nZhang et al., 2019b; Cuesta et al., 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2020)."


id: e77746abb50b94bc5e40687f5ff1e45a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38023
content:
"Many treelines will continue to shift to higher elevations with \r\nincreasing temperatures (Chhetri and Cairns, 2018), although very \r\nfew are changing as fast as the climate (Liang et al., 2016; Hansson \r\net  al., 2021) and some are not moving or even shifting to lower \r\nelevations (CCP5.2.1). If treelines fail to shift uphill, this will pose a \r\nrisk for species of the upper-montane forest that experience range \r\ncontraction at their lower range limit but lack a suitable habitat to \r\nexpand into beyond their upper range limit (Rehm and Feeley, 2015). \r\nChanges in phenology can also pose risks to species and ecosystems \r\n(Chapter 2), including a potential desynchronisation of mutualistic \r\nrelationships like pollination and increased freezing damage due to \r\npremature emergence from winter dormancy. In European broadleaf \r\ntrees, for example, the upper elevational limits of different species \r\ninvolve a trade-off between maximising growing season length and "


id: 280f982a27fce74dab418f955edd2749
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4248
content:
"Risks to mountain ecosystems and the services they provide to people \r\nare varied in magnitude, timing, likelihood and potential to adapt \r\nand place specific. However, many mountain ecosystems are already \r\nshowing impacts of climate change (CCP5.3.1), reflecting the strong \r\ninfluence climate exerts in many situations and indicating that risks are \r\nsignificant and immediate and will likely increase in the near as well \r\nas long term. There is robust evidence (high agreement) of vegetation \r\nzones and individual species shifting to higher elevations (CCP5.2.1 \r\nand Section  2.4), and projections indicate that current trends will \r\ncontinue and accelerate at higher rates of warming (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Section 2.5)."


id: f8c29c66028106f34f18b17545b874d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41127
content:
"moderate, a low adaptation extent might be sufficient to constrain \r\nrisks (Figures CCP5.5 and 5.6, Section 16.3.2.4)."


id: f928e6951bec71555c2ab95265a5c1ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41199
content:
"A wide range of mechanisms can cause changes within ecological \r\ncommunities, some of which are hard to predict, but an increasing \r\nnumber of studies illustrate some of the risks which are expected to \r\nbe most common. If treelines shift upwards, this will pose a risk for \r\nalpine species, which cannot compete with trees. This may lead to the \r\nextinction of alpine species on mountains where there is insufficient \r\nroom for the alpine zone to shift uphill. Shifts in species distributions, \r\nand in particular shifts in ecosystem types, can cause changes in \r\necosystem function, which may in turn have cascading impacts on \r\npeople, for example leading to increased exposure to diseases such \r\nas malaria at high elevation (Section 2.4.2.7.2) as vector distribution \r\nchanges and wider impacts on ecosystem services (Section 2.5.3) such \r\nas water supply, flood alleviation and food."


id: 47eea27f4c51c627df8994a896dbbb03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9868
content:
"EbA has been effective in mountain regions at reducing risks \r\nfrom floods (e.g., restoration of buffer zones and floodplains) and \r\nlandslides (e.g., protective forests) (Muccione and Daley, 2016; Klein \r\net al., 2019b; Lavorel et al., 2019). Ecosystem-based measures have \r\nbeen implemented for water management purposes to supply clean \r\nwater and improve water quality (Section  4.6.6). Furthermore, they \r\nprovide scope for conservation and improvement of habitats, e.g., \r\nforest ecosystems (Nagel et  al., 2017; Lamborn and Smith, 2019) \r\n(high agreement, medium evidence). However, repeated and recurrent \r\ndisturbances that increase recovery times can reduce the effectiveness \r\nof EbA (medium confidence) (Sebald et al., 2019; Scheidl et al., 2020)."


id: eec52452ff99f4d8ad137e205fadd326
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39384
content:
"Adaptation in mountain areas is currently constrained predominantly \r\nby soft limits related to existing social, economic and political \r\nconditions (high confidence) (Gioli et  al., 2014; Sansilvestri et  al., \r\n2016). Progress in overcoming soft limits is currently minimal due \r\nto insufficient engagement with socioeconomic and political issues \r\nin existing adaptation (medium confidence) (McDowell et  al., 2019, \r\n2021b) (Section 8.4.5.3, Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17). This \r\nis expected to lead to an expansion of residual risks as risk severity \r\nincreases (McDowell et al., 2021b)."


id: 33ecbbadf73bf82dc2df306b2aa6d22d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6378
content:
"More than half of the studies having a focus on mountains \r\n(423 articles) extracted from the GAMI data set report that adaptation \r\nresponses contribute to reducing climate risks (Berrang-Ford et  al., \r\n2021; McDowell et al., 2021b) (SMCCP5.3.2). However, the extent of \r\nadaptation in terms of time (i.e., speed), scale of change (i.e., scope) \r\nand depth of change (i.e., degree to which a change is substantial) \r\nis low in mountain regions, with the level of agreement across \r\nstudies varying from one region to the other (medium confidence) \r\n(Figure  CCP5.7, SMCCP5.3.2). In regions where risk levels remain "


id: d02397d154141a8eada6527dc7e28d97
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33977
content:
"redistribute or create new vulnerabilities when they proceed without \r\nsincere engagement with local communities (Eriksen et al., 2021). The \r\nsolution space also evolves as social and climatic conditions change \r\nand can be capped by social and biophysical limits to adaptation that \r\nrender further responses to climate change inaccessible, unfeasible \r\nor ineffectual. Such limits are already observed and are likely to \r\nbecome more widespread as climatic stressors move beyond historical \r\nexperience (high confidence) (IPCC, 2018; Hock et al., 2019; McDowell \r\net al., 2020) (Section 17.3; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17)."


id: 5cef5df0a23e6e8205a73b82d702a752
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13617
content:
"The effects of climate change on mountain environments pose \r\nsignificant challenges for people, ecosystems and sustainable \r\ndevelopment, with issues such as difficult access, environmental \r\nsensitivity and socioeconomic marginalisation making adaptation \r\nparticularly complex. Furthermore, varied and dynamic biophysical \r\ncharacteristics as well as high sociocultural diversity preclude one\u0002size-fits-all responses; adaptation planning and action in mountains \r\nrooted in context-specific socioecological and climatic realities are \r\nmore effective (high confidence) (Hock et al., 2019; Lavorel et al., 2019; \r\nMcDowell et  al., 2020). Despite these challenges, there is growing \r\nevidence of opportunities for advancing effective responses to climate \r\nrisks in mountain areas (McDowell et al., 2020) (Section 16.3; Cross\u0002Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2)."


id: ed2d71713c37c4bb9cb67907ee7a0948
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39105
content:
"Evidence shows the significant potential of adaptation actions such \r\nas NbS or multiple uses of water approaches but with a need to \r\ncarefully evaluate environmental, economic and social co-benefits and \r\ntrade-offs (high agreement, medium confidence) (Yang et  al., 2016; \r\nDrenkhan et  al., 2019; Lavorel et  al., 2019; McDowell et  al., 2019; \r\nPalomo et  al., 2021). The potential for adaptation to contribute to \r\nsustainable development and transformative change in mountains \r\nis also becoming increasingly evident (medium confidence) (Palomo \r\net  al., 2021), yet there is currently limited evidence with respect to \r\nthe long-term effectiveness of adaptations in achieving such outcomes \r\n(Balsiger et al., 2020). To better achieve the adaptation potential in \r\nmountains, adaptation finance and private-sector inclusion and \r\ncontribution are key enablers (high confidence) (Mishra et al., 2019; \r\nUNEP, 2021)."


id: d1a2ba293c0cff5b009bc71c18d7cafe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34230
content:
"The solution space for adaptation represents a realm of possibility \r\nfor addressing climate risks; it is shaped by both socioeconomic and \r\nclimatic factors that influence who adapts, when they adapt and how \r\nthey adapt to climate change (Haasnoot et al., 2020) (Sections 1.5.1 \r\nand 17.4). The space includes both planned and autonomous responses \r\n(Hock et  al., 2019; McDowell et  al., 2019). Autonomous responses \r\ncan be appropriate when local resilience is high (Mishra et al., 2019; \r\nFord et al., 2020); however, many mountain communities continue to \r\nface socioeconomic challenges that constrain their adaptive capacity \r\n(high confidence). Planned adaptations are a critical component of \r\nthe solution space, although external interventions can also reinforce, "


id: 60bb5f4fc8bef566e2d80a51ad5cc6a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14312
content:
"There is increasing recognition that inclusive and comprehensive \r\nadaptation approaches can be more successful (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Allen et al., 2018; Hock et al., 2019; Huggel et al., 2020a, b). "


id: ba7b1a6614add744b309682e0a240130
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30023
content:
"limited to support adaptation action in mountain regions, indicating \r\nsignificant unutilised support options for increasing the solution space \r\nin mountains (McDowell et al., 2020). Enhanced uptake of available \r\nsupport and funding could help to ease the adaptation burden for \r\nmountain communities. This will require addressing soft limits to \r\nadaptation, which currently constrain the ability of actors to identify, \r\naccess and mobilise resources for planned adaptations (McDowell \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 3e95ee859d5a02196b8ac4ad87bc7383
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8197
content:
"More inclusive adaptation approaches, engagement with the root \r\ncauses of vulnerability, improved coordination and monitoring \r\nactivities and upscaling of support for adaptation are key enablers \r\nand are indicative of a substantial solution space for adaptation in \r\nmountain regions (high confidence). However, trajectories of climate \r\nchange and the prospect of hard limits to adaptation, which are often \r\nbiophysical in origin, portend climate futures that could overwhelm \r\nadaptation efforts. Success therefore hinges on increasing the quality \r\nand quantity of adaptation efforts, including through transformative \r\naction, as well as enhanced mitigation efforts, consistent with the \r\nrecommendations of IPCC SR 1.5C (IPCC, 2018) (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox PROGRESS in Chapter 17)."


id: d9519e315011eea8e0d89460cb7c4352
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35535
content:
"Progress in addressing climate risks requires targeting the root causes \r\nof vulnerability, which are often socioeconomic in origin and can \r\ninclude poverty, marginalisation and inequitable gender dynamics \r\n(high confidence) (Ribot, 2014; Carey et al., 2017; Shukla et al., 2018; \r\nMcDowell et al., 2019). Promoting resilience in many mountain regions \r\nrequires responses that address the social determinants of susceptibility \r\nto harm. Context-specific manifestations of such determinants \r\n(and leverage points for positive action) can be identified through \r\nparticipatory processes with affected populations, with action on \r\nsocial determinants of climate change vulnerability having important \r\nco-benefits for equity, justice and sustainability. Addressing the root \r\ncauses of vulnerability can also resolve soft limits to adaptation, \r\nthereby increasing the solution space (McDowell et al., 2020)."


id: bc3a020928cadf15a1126f49f2f791ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30360
content:
"NbS can be pursued in mountains that will mitigate climate change \r\nand its impacts while at the same time contributing to improving \r\nlivelihoods, social and economic well-being and sustainable \r\nenvironmental management (high confidence). A global review of 93 \r\nNbS in mountains, such as afforestation, protection of existing forests, \r\nagroforestry and climate-smart agriculture, confirm the potential of \r\nNbS for change towards sustainable trajectories (Palomo et al., 2021). \r\nAgroforestry is widely cited for delivering on food security as well \r\nas increasing resilience and mitigating climate change (Mbow et al., \r\n2014; Amadu et al., 2020; Gidey et al., 2020). Also, the prudent use \r\nof biomass for wood-based bioenergy in mountains can mitigate \r\nthe impacts of climate change, reduce vulnerability to disturbance \r\nevents such as fires and enhance rural socioeconomic development \r\n(Beeton and Galvin, 2017). Yet there can be trade-offs contingent "


id: e50acadb3a9812f9e7580e9c5827ebb7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37591
content:
"Similar pledges have been announced in formal institutional arrange\u0002ments such as the Alpine Convention and the Carpathian Convention. \r\nThe Alpine Convention's climate action plan prioritises reaching a \r\nclimate-neutral and climate-resilient Alps by 2050. For this, imple\u0002mentation pathways for specific sectors have been identified ensuring \r\ncoherence with global and regional goals such as the Paris agreement, \r\nSDGs, EU and climate legislation (AlpineConvention, 2021). Likewise, \r\nthe Carpathian Convention's working group on climate change has \r\npresented a long-term vision towards combating climate change \r\nthrough amending the article of the convention to focus specifically \r\non climate change adaptation and mitigation (Carpathian Convention, \r\n2020)."


id: 77b3367802f56c3cfe5e49e6343e7b8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18267
content:
"upon place-based and context-specific social and environmental \r\nfactors, such as between the use of bio-energy, agricultural production \r\nand conservation concerns (Beeton and Galvin, 2017). Evidence \r\nfrom the world's mountains highlights the importance of cross\u0002scale partnerships and interdisciplinary, bottom-up approaches that \r\nfacilitate stakeholders in envisioning locally tailored, climate-resilient \r\nand sustainable development pathways (Chelleri et al., 2016; Capitani \r\net al., 2019; Klein et al., 2019b; Pandey et al., 2021)."


id: 48b257a659a8fecdf0919810423e2dfd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10010
content:
"Concerning climate policy and planning for climate resilient \r\ndevelopment in mountains, a review of mountain-specific priorities \r\nin the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) submitted \r\nto the UNFCCC shows that countries have prioritised improving \r\nagricultural outputs by introducing climate-smart crops and upgrading \r\nand building climate-resilient irrigation infrastructure (UNFCCC, \r\n2020c). Countries that have submitted their NAPAs to the UNFCCC \r\nhave prioritised improving ecosystem resilience through conserving \r\nagro-biodiversity in mountains. Countries have also focused on \r\nachieving food security in mountain regions and laying foundations for \r\nfood availability, stability, access and safety amid increasing climate \r\nrisks (UNFCCC, 2020a)."


id: bb535b95c5d9c4e0995ea8611d2bbf23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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vector_id: 30174
content:
"In the NDCs where mountain regions are specifically mentioned, countries \r\nhave prioritised climate-resilient solutions, including developing a low\u0002carbon green economy through implementing low-carbon transport \r\nsystems and encouraging sustainable waste management practices, as \r\nwell as developing infrastructure for climate-resilient agriculture, the \r\nsustainable management of forests and the biodiversity conservation. \r\nSeveral countries have specifically pledged to build climate-resilient \r\nmountain infrastructure taking into account future climate uncertainties. \r\nCountries have also identified the need for capacity-building of national \r\nstakeholders and have pledged to provide relevant climate information \r\n(UNFCCC, 2020b)."


id: 304679ee461333d133f3b54e7fdc6480
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5745
content:
"Table CCP5.3 |  Summary of key assessment-relevant knowledge gaps and limitations identified in CCP5."


id: e882e985170e6b168ae48bfe2ea84894
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38245
content:
"Sources of freshwater from mountains, such as rainfall, snow and glacier melt, and groundwater are strongly affected by climate change, \r\nleading to important changes in water supply in terms of quantity and, partly, quality and timing (e.g., shifts and changes in seasonality). \r\nIn many cases, the effects on ecosystems and people are negative, e.g., creating or exacerbating ecosystem degradation, water scarcity or \r\ncompetition or conflict over water."


id: 8dbaf2724b5d49df2ee87b309d226a2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22126
content:
"The effect of climate change on groundwater in mountains is insufficiently understood. Infiltrating water from \r\nglaciers and snowmelt plays an important role in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is expected to \r\ndecrease with continued climate change in several mountain regions. In the Himalaya many springs have already \r\nbeen observed to be in decline."


id: f87ee24c934e15538fbc7668a7e7f0ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41076
content:
"FAQ CCP5.2 | Do people in mountain regions, and further downstream, face more severe risks to water-related \r\ndisasters due to climate change, and how are they coping?"


id: 8124e8b9dfd338cf46339186eee0ccf1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19855
content:
"Mountain regions have always been affected by either too much or too little water. Because of climate change, hazards are changing rapidly \r\nand becoming even more unpredictable. Whether or not these changes will result in more disasters locally and further downstream depends \r\non several factors, not least the fact that more people are settling in exposed locations. People in mountains have a history of developing skills \r\nto live in a dangerous and dynamic environment, which will be invaluable in the future when combined with inclusive and long-term disaster \r\nrisk reduction measures."


id: fcf51aa4e4bc912c503a4c9b32a5b32e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41864
content:
"Water-related hazards in mountains include rainfall (pluvial) and river (fluvial) floods, extreme rainfall-induced \r\nlandslides, debris flows, ice and snow avalanches and droughts. When people are exposed and vulnerable to \r\nthese hazards, disasters can result. Floods and landslides in mountains contribute to and count among the most \r\ndevastating disasters globally, often resulting in significant losses such as high numbers of fatalities and economic \r\nand property damage. Climate change may alter rainfall frequency/intensity distributions, potentially leading to \r\nfloods and droughts. Climate change may also lead to shifts in precipitation type, with more precipitation falling \r\nas rain rather than snow in the future, which will further impact both short- and long-term water storage and, \r\ntherefore, will impact downstream ecosystems and cities."


id: 2b3672de0246817752fdba9470fd2fd5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4848
content:
"Although climate change directly affects water-related hazards, studies indicate that above and beyond natural \r\nhazards, disaster risk and disasters are influenced to a major extent by vulnerability and exposure. This is of relevance \r\nin mountains, where disaster risk is influenced by population growth, induced displacements, land use changes and \r\ninefficient water distribution systems. For example, current trends suggest that more people are settling in exposed \r\nlocations, with more infrastructure being built and activities such as tourism and recreation being promoted, \r\nexacerbating this exposure."


id: 695dfb40456a77d1f2a91a7e77e193e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15805
content:
"Experiences in dealing with water-related disasters provide a basis on which to build adequate responses to \r\nincreasing risks in the future. For example, upgrading infrastructure like dams and embankments can help address \r\nwater shortages, but diversification of income-generating activities, such as subsistence farming moving away from \r\ncertain drought-sensitive crops, can also help."


id: d357129612597eb54a07d2221eacd0e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34526
content:
"The risk perceptions of people also shape their behaviours in coping with disaster risks. For example, based on their \r\nlongstanding observations and local knowledge, communities in the southern part of the Peruvian Andes identified \r\nthe shrinking of glaciers, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, more extreme temperatures and \r\nshortened rainy seasons as key challenges. The recognition of local knowledge is key to addressing these challenges, \r\nas well as providing a basis for the transformation of current systems. A lack of community involvement and \r\nparticipation in decision making on how to address disaster risk can contribute to mismatches between perceptions \r\nand behaviours in face of those risks, and the actions needed to reduce losses. Therefore, measures which are \r\nflexible, address the objectives and needs of all those affected by disasters and bring long-term benefits have more \r\nchances of being successful in dealing with future disaster risks."


id: a2070f6f2c71c50d7b051e2fbe232a22
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25743
content:
"Treeline position, bioclimatic zones and species ranges move up in elevation as the climate warms, increasing the risk of extinction for \r\nspecies isolated on mountain tops as a result of exceeding their physiological limits, loss of habitat or competition from colonising species. \r\nAdditionally, climate change may alter the quality and quantity of food and natural products on which the livelihood of many mountain \r\ncommunities depends."


id: aef665336a81b5355c56b7dabf5c0682
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28025
content:
"Mountain regions cover about a quarter of the Earth's land surface, are scattered around the globe and may \r\nsupport a wide range of climates within short horizontal distances. Mountains have experienced above-average \r\nwarming, and this trend is expected to continue. Mountains provide a variety of goods for people, are home to \r\nmany Indigenous Peoples and are attractive for tourism and recreational activities. Mountain regions support many \r\ndifferent ecosystems, and some are very species rich. Mountain regions can be vast and diverse, and climate change \r\nand its impacts on ecosystems vary greatly from location to location."


id: de6069eed0161c0d4d23d19f012684f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36387
content:
"Changes in snow cover and snow duration are related to changes in temperature and precipitation and are also \r\ncritical for plants and animals. In particular, glacier retreat and changing snow patterns affect both streamflow \r\ndynamics (including extremes) and soil moisture conditions and can cause moisture shortages during the growing \r\nseason. A change in snow patterns can critically affect animal movements in mountains. Other processes creating \r\nstresses on mountain ecosystems are direct human impacts, such as the influence of grazing, tourism, air pollution \r\nand nitrogen deposition on alpine vegetation. In some cases, these impacts can be so large on the goods and \r\nservices provided by alpine ecosystems that they can overshadow the effects of climate change or exacerbate its \r\neffects."


id: fef160f91a75b7b66dabb330c0848705
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42252
content:
"In some regions, the livelihoods of many local mountain communities depend on access to firewood, pastures, \r\nedible plants and mushrooms, and medicinal and aromatic plants. Climate change can alter the quality and quantity \r\nof these ecosystem services; however, the degree and direction of change are context specific. The appeal and \r\nfeasibility of mountains for tourism and recreational activities are also affected by climate change."


id: 42fd3981f3582a577748c676ce1e69ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8988
content:
"FAQ CCP5.4 | What types of adaptation options are feasible to address the impacts of climate change in mountain \r\nregions under different levels of warming, and what are their limits?"


id: 61e7a4e29a5525e82f5b23659b187a0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14501
content:
"The feasibility of adaptation to address risks in mountain regions is influenced by numerous factors, many of which are unique to mountain \r\npeople and their environment. Adaptation efforts in mountains mainly consist of small, largely autonomous steps. Robust and flexible \r\nadaptation measures have a better chance of addressing risks, but eventually large systemic transformation will be needed in the face of \r\nhigher levels of warming. Empirical evidence on what works and what does not is largely absent but urgently needed."


id: d33ede2a38b3d352b0b7e2b57f31e687
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34510
content:
"The term feasibility refers to climate goals and adaptation options that are possible and desirable. Feasibility is \r\ninfluenced by factors such as economic viability, availability of technical resources, institutional support, social \r\ncapital, ecological and adaptive capacity and biophysical conditions. Establishing the feasibility of options under \r\nchanging climatic and socioeconomic conditions is not an easy task, mostly because even present feasibility is difficult \r\nto assess in mountains due to a lack of systematic information on opportunities and challenges of adaptation in \r\npractice."


id: 43ca151ae0aef21d4d968fc81b88fec5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9154
content:
"Whether or not adaptation options are feasible says little about their effectiveness, i.e., the degree to which \r\nadaptation has been or will be successful in reducing the risks of negative impacts. Adaptation is difficult to \r\ndisentangle from other factors that contribute to both increasing and decreasing risks. Since adaptation in mountains \r\nis often autonomous and unplanned, measuring its effectiveness is complex and missed by more conventional, \r\nformal or structured monitoring and evaluation frameworks."


id: ba320a1ebf6234935fb36d389358f03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29982
content:
"Evidence suggests that promising measures undertaken in mountains are those that are robust under uncertain \r\nfutures, allow for adaptive planning and management and respond to multiple interests and purposes. For \r\nexample, multi-purpose water reservoirs can alleviate multiple stressors and address several risks, such as those \r\nfrom natural hazards and water shortages. Capacity-building and awareness-raising can go a long way towards \r\nensuring that these measures are also socially acceptable if combined with more structural and systemic changes. \r\nIndeed, transformations happen slowly in mountains and it is unlikely that small steps and incremental measures \r\nwill be able to cope with more severe and pervasive risks."


id: 348a4d3b4e42d57fa6babd43f27bacbb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6482
content:
"Overall, empirical evidence on the effectiveness of adaptations at reducing risk is largely lacking but is urgently \r\nneeded to better understand what works and what does not under certain circumstances."


id: 8e94c1a64d12ec3b9c0b0471c34e9b6b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22268
content:
"FAQ CCP5.5 | Why are regional cooperation and transboundary governance needed for sustainable mountain \r\ndevelopment?"


id: b932736fe9719df771d06af034e0a46e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29785
content:
"Regional cooperation and transboundary governance are key to managing our vast mountain resources because they do not necessarily share \r\npolitical boundaries. Mountain countries need to come together, share data and information, form joint management committees, jointly \r\ndevelop policies and take decisions that benefit all countries equitably. A lack of cooperation may lead to missed opportunities to address \r\nclimate risks and adequately manage mountain resources, which could cause social unrest and spark conflict within and between countries."


id: 3dd3859fb929fe5a714bd4240859d9de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8044
content:
"Mountains are climate change hotspots that are highly susceptible to climate change. Due to rapidly changing \r\nclimatic conditions, climate change is one of the major issues that would benefit from regional cooperation. The \r\ntransboundary management of mountains means shared legal and institutional frameworks for sharing the benefits \r\nand costs of managing mountain ranges across boundaries, whether local or district jurisdictions within countries or \r\nindeed across national boundaries."


id: a64c8ac7e19a6d2f040517a631be8f69
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26474
content:
"The IPCC's Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere refers to governance as an 'effort to establish, reaffirm or \r\nchange formal and informal institutions at all scales to negotiate relationships, resolve social conflicts and realise \r\nmutual gains'. Governance is an act of governments, NGOs, private-sector institutions and civil society in establishing \r\nrules and norms for restricting the use of common goods. Institutions can guide, constrain and shape human \r\ninteraction through direct control, incentives, and processes of socialisation. How do we apply the definitions of \r\ngovernance and institutions in the context of mountains? Since governance not only refers to government, which \r\nis a formal arm of the state, the report also talks about other agencies such as community organisations, non-profit \r\norganisations or businesses that play a vital role in society and influence individual or collective decisions and help \r\nin preventing the overexploitation of resources."


id: d3ac916fc810e5a9e27eb98a709f2ff5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34580
content:
"To comprehend the processes of governance in mountain areas, we need to recognise how each of these agencies \r\nadds to the enduring task of enabling and managing change at the system level but also to preserving social \r\nstructures and reconciling disputes. For the sustainable and resilient development of mountain regions, governance \r\nmechanisms may be different than those applied to the management of other resources, such as coastal zones \r\nor rivers. Mountains are also mostly transboundary and do not necessarily follow political boundaries. Mountain \r\ngovernance, therefore, is about managing resources across political boundaries for the benefit of all countries. \r\nThis includes downstream countries that also rely on resources such as water, silt and others from these mountain \r\nregions. These include high rangelands, biodiversity hotspots, forests and glaciers, for example."


id: 9d2090cf8fd255a77037424172da7242
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24880
content:
"There are several examples of regional cooperation in connection with the governance of shared resources in \r\nmountains. Some examples come from the Arctic (bottom-up and science-based evolution of Arctic cooperation), \r\nSoutheast Europe (regionalisation of environmental benefits) and the HKH region (intergovernmental scientific \r\ninstitution for research and data sharing). Mountains share resources, so their management will benefit from \r\ncooperation among countries. Transboundary cooperation is needed not only to address transboundary climate risks \r\nand regional adaptation to climate change in mountains but also to work across countries to reduce greenhouse \r\ngas emissions."


id: 605ae0a05136cb0b4eafd950dbe432a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14258
content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Contributing Authors: Stef Bokhorst (the Netherlands), Julia Boike \r\n(Germany), Ashlee Cunsolo (Canada), Chris Derksen (Canada), Pauliina Feodoroff (Finland), James \r\nD. Ford (UK/Canada), Stephen E.L. Howell (Canada), Angelica Casanova Katny (Chile), Joanna \r\nPetrasek MacDonald (Canada), Ashild Onvik Pedersen (Norway), Sharon Robinson (Australia), \r\nDalee Sambo Dorough (USA), Vyacheslav Shadrin (Russian Federation), Mette Skern-Mauritzen \r\n(Norway), Sharon Smith (Canada), Dmitry Streletskiy (USA/Russian Federation), Megumu \r\nTsujimoto (Japan), Brie Van Dam (USA)"


id: 8ed6646ac9fbc2ba5f13d161c9c8daff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22316
content:
"Constable, A.J., S. Harper, J. Dawson, K. Holsman, T. Mustonen, D. Piepenburg, and B. Rost, 2022: Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n6: Polar Regions. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to \r\nthe Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, \r\nE.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. \r\nCambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2319-2368, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.023."


id: cc6624215078ebb41398bf5b736b3d53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33277
content:
"FAQ CCP6.4 | When will climate change impacts in \r\npolar regions surpass our ability to adapt?  2351"


id: bc3ca60f7c8bf42ee23016bf604bdeae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30362
content:
"shipping, tourism (very high confidence) and Arctic maritime trade \r\nand resource extraction (medium confidence). Navigational risks have \r\ngrown due to increasingly mobile multi-year ice, poor hydrographic \r\ncharting in newly open areas, and limited weather, water, ice and \r\nclimate data and services (high confidence). Cascading risks from polar \r\nshipping growth include increased air emissions, underwater noise \r\npollution, disruption to subsistence hunting and cultural activities \r\nin the Arctic (high confidence) and potential for invasive marine \r\nspecies and geopolitical tensions (medium confidence). {Table CCP6.3; \r\nCCP6.2.4; Box CCP6.1; Table CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6}"


id: d9078bd85aa07fa1bd7917a9f02e067
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35481
content:
"Climate change impacts and cascading impacts in polar \r\nregions, particularly the Arctic, are already occurring at a \r\nmagnitude and pace unprecedented in recent history (very \r\nhigh confidence), and much faster than projected for other \r\nworld regions (high confidence1\r\n)."


id: 4b62687b1b10acc0fa2144ae95ff0a33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10511
content:
"Increased permafrost thaw and flooding will disrupt economically \r\nimportant transportation and supply-chain infrastructure to \r\nremote Arctic settlements (high confidence), increasing risks to \r\neconomies, Arctic tourism and tourism to cultural heritage sites \r\n(medium confidence). Arctic permafrost thaw is projected to impact \r\nmost infrastructure by the middle of this century, impacting millions \r\nof people and their economies, and costing billions in damages (high \r\nconfidence). {CCP6.2.3; CCP6.2.4; Box  CCP6.1; CCP6.2.5; CCP6.3.1; \r\nTable CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6}"


id: d2d20f645f4cfae12f7937edb370ac12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34440
content:
"Climate change increasingly threatens many facets of Arctic \r\nlivelihoods, culture, identity, health and security, particularly \r\nfor Indigenous Peoples (very high confidence). It has negatively \r\nimpacted mental health and increased risks of injury, food insecurity \r\nand foodborne and waterborne disease, with risks amplified for those \r\nreliant on the environment for subsistence, livelihoods and identity \r\n(high confidence). Permafrost thaw, sea level rise and reduced sea \r\nice protection have already damaged or destroyed many cultural \r\nheritage sites in some Arctic regions (very high confidence) and are \r\nprojected to continue across all Arctic regions (very high confidence). \r\n{CCP6.2.3; Table CCP6.3; CCP6.2.4; CCP6.2.5; CCP6.2.6; Figure CCP6.3; \r\nBox CCP6.2; CCP6.3.1; Table CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6}"


id: 2aa37ffc3218d94b90d82d02ecae543
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4729
content:
"Contractions of the polar climate zones lead to distribution \r\nshifts and changes in food webs, induce declines in many species \r\n(medium confidence) with impacts on subsistence harvests \r\nand commercial fisheries, and threaten global dependence \r\non polar regions for substantial marine food production \r\n(high confidence). Climate change has induced food web changes \r\nresulting in population declines in polar sea birds, including penguins, \r\nand marine and terrestrial mammals (high confidence). Globally and \r\nregionally important harvested fish and invertebrate species are also \r\ncontracting ranges and declining productivity, including Pacific cod, \r\nsalmon, snow and king crab in the Arctic and krill in the Antarctic \r\n(medium confidence), with implications for global food systems \r\n(high confidence). {Table CCP6.2; CCP6.2.1; CCP6.2.3; Table CCP6.3; \r\nTable CCP6.4}"


id: 6ca9c237d441861fae23c760ad70c441
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16404
content:
"Adaptations to manage climate change impacts and risks in \r\npolar regions are urgently needed (very high confidence), \r\nbut implementation is uneven (high confidence), limits to \r\nadaptation are high and maladaptation is probable (high \r\nconfidence)."


id: 4af725bb7f660ce35ae754941d2eb3fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10432
content:
"Polar zones will continue to contract and diminish in extent \r\nunder climate change, and local adaptations will be insufficient \r\nto achieve long-term resilience of polar systems (medium \r\nconfidence). The pace and extent of change in polar regions is \r\nchallenging the ability of social and natural systems to adapt (medium \r\nconfidence). Management of different sectors with specific measures \r\nto reduce the potential for compounding risks and the development \r\nof climate-sensitive strategies would support the resilience of polar \r\nsystems. Resilience of natural systems can be enhanced through \r\nstrategies that maintain ecological connectivity over large spatial \r\nscales and reduce the particular impact of local extreme events on "


id: 73c103e89ec8673ff5a6e99be1e5cbe6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17617
content:
"Loss of sea ice is rapidly expanding opportunities, but also \r\nincreasing risks for shipping and other economic industries in \r\npolar regions (very high confidence). Reduced sea ice enables \r\ngreater access to high-latitudinal seas for industries, such as fisheries, "


id: 72a2285b3a5ed2bf2d5618205a0d03ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17408
content:
"biodiversity (medium confidence). {CCP6.2; Box  CCP6.1; CCP6.3; \r\nTable CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6; Figure CCP6.6; CCP6.4}"


id: 38207503148c20ca788cb960c14f9d58
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7078
content:
"Climate resilience for Arctic Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities is dependent on Indigenous self-determination \r\nin climate-adaptation action (very high confidence), inclusive, \r\ncoordinated and transboundary governance (high confidence) \r\nand ecosystem-based policies (high confidence) to effectively \r\naddress climate change impacts and risks across scales and \r\nsectors, and to achieve a resilient, secure and equitable future."


id: 672c09dee58c533f0d4652fd3b43d721
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15425
content:
"Development of robust pathways for climate resilience in \r\nthe Arctic can be accelerated by adaptation strategies and \r\ngovernance that reflect local conditions, cultures and adaptive \r\ncapacities of communities and sectors (high confidence). \r\nEffectiveness of adaptation strategies will be enhanced by accounting \r\nfor the geographic, climatic, ecological and cultural uniqueness of \r\nthe polar regions (medium confidence). Colonialism can inhibit the \r\ndevelopment of robust climate adaptation strategies, and exacerbate \r\nclimate risks (very high confidence). Inclusive decision making in \r\nestablishing climate adaptations can foster resilience, reflect the unique \r\nenvironmental, cultural and economic imperatives of the region and \r\nsupport both market-based and sharing economies (high confidence). \r\n{Box CCP6.2; Table CCP6.6; CCP6.3.2; CCP6.4}"


id: 55802ae8011cea6740799be6267ca5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12314
content:
"Indigenous self-determination in managing climate change \r\nimpacts, adaptations and solutions can accelerate effective \r\nrobust climate resilient development pathways in the Arctic (very \r\nhigh confidence). Arctic Indigenous self-determination in decision \r\nmaking can establish robust climate resilience, especially in Indigenous \r\ncommunities, incorporating locally derived definitions of social and \r\neconomic success, culturally legitimate institutions of government, \r\nstrategic visioning and thinking and public-spirited, nation-building \r\nleadership (very high confidence). {Box CCP6.2; CCP6.3; CCP6.4}"


id: 5152bb9ca5c8a6a1a43e5dd8d05f2559
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11586
content:
"for the global community and for Arctic Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities in the region."


id: c41ef92eead21f1db37f918a362673ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31789
content:
"Polar regions (Figure CCP6.1) are considered flagship areas for climate \r\nchange, since some of the most extreme climate change impacts \r\nthat are projected to occur by 2050 elsewhere in the world have \r\nalready been observed in the Arctic and Antarctic and have resulted \r\nin transformative and unprecedented change. Polar regions are not \r\nonly home to cultural keystone species such as polar bears (Arctic) and \r\npenguins (Antarctic) but they also play fundamental roles in regulating \r\nthe global climate system and in the provision of ecosystem services "


id: 42c5529b325dfc938784d8ad200c2927
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8943
content:
"These changes are causing a suite of direct and cascading risks for \r\nall polar ecosystems with larger effects to date in the Arctic than the \r\nAntarctic (high confidence), due to larger and regionally more consistent \r\nphysical changes (Figure CCP6.2, Table CCP6.1; Chapter 3) (Meredith \r\net  al., 2019; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). In the Arctic, these changes \r\naffect every sector of society, impacting its 4,000,000 inhabitants, \r\nincluding 400,000 Indigenous People. The Antarctic has no permanent \r\nhuman settlements; however, many nations conduct field research, "


id: cceeef11d2ac8dbd64f2679faf75af12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33397
content:
"Figure CCP6.1 |  Polar regions include the Arctic, Antarctica, Iceland, Greenland, Faroe Islands and some sub-Arctic areas (e.g., Bering Sea and Aleutian \r\nIslands as well as the Fennoscandian and Siberian boreal areas), and all sub-Antarctic areas. This CCP augments the geographical boundaries for the Arctic (Meredith \r\net al., 2019) to also include the sub-Arctic boundary (as defined by the Arctic Biodiversity Assessment), northern boreal areas, parts of the Siberian taiga and southern Labrador. \r\nThe Antarctic region is delineated along the sub-Antarctic Front (Orsi et al., 1995). Geographic boundaries of the polar regions and important sub-regional locations are displayed, \r\nincluding five marine sectors as defined in the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO), for example, Grant et al., (2021)."


id: d473f89d7ce868aa57426bf97cd13ac6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34699
content:
"Table CCP6.1 |  Climatic impact drivers in the Arctic and Antarctic derived from WGI-AR6 chapters (indicated as WGI-9 (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021) and WGI-12 (Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021)) and Meredith et al. (2019) (indicated as SROCC-3). Supplementary Material (SMCCP6.1) contains supplemental data for these drivers of projected changes (2021-2040, \r\n2041-2060, 2081-2100) derived from the WGI-AR6 Interactive Atlas (indicated as Atlas) (Gutierrez et al., 2021) (https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch)."


id: e2e3ca3c990c530954293267c39231cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37215
content:
"operate seasonal and permanent stations and have an interest in the \r\nmanagement of the region (Hughes et al., 2018; Grant et al., 2021). \r\nDuring summer, when Antarctic science, tourism and fishery activities \r\nare greatest, 4400 people live there, whereas only 1100 people live \r\nthere over winter (Meredith et  al., 2019). Although adaptation is \r\noccurring in polar regions, it is uneven and sporadic and does not \r\nmeet the risks posed by future climate change. Indigenous knowledge\u0002based solutions, inclusive ecosystem-based policies and integrated \r\ntechnologies demonstrate the potential to effectively address climate \r\nchange impacts across scales and sectors, yet implementation barriers \r\nremain (CCP6.4.1)."


id: 9d61f260dbbfd1e622d7490320206efe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24922
content:
"building from the framework outlined in SROCC (Crate et al., 2019), \r\nscientific, Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) systems \r\nare included in this assessment. Importantly, Indigenous authors led \r\nthe assessment of the impacts, adaptation and governance of climate \r\nchange for Indigenous Peoples, which is an important advance since \r\nAR5 and represents an important step towards Indigenous self\u0002determination in international assessment processes (Ford et al., 2012; \r\nFord et al., 2016; Hill et al., 2020)."


id: e00266df814d4f3a5fd5a2220be80707
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36654
content:
"Herein, observed impacts and future risks (CCP6.2), key risks and \r\nadaptation (CCP6.3) and climate resilient development pathways \r\n(CCP6.4) in the polar regions are assessed. The CCP describes how \r\nthe implications of climate change impacts in the Arctic and Antarctic \r\nextend beyond their boundaries, in terms of transregional coupled \r\necological systems (CCP6.2.1, CCP6.2.2), global nutritional security \r\n(CCP6.2.3), global trade and shipping (CCP6.2.4) and cultural value \r\n(CCP6.2.5, CCP6.2.6). Given the synthetic and policy-facing mandate \r\nof CCPs and with SROCC as a key point of departure, this CCP is not \r\nintended to cover the full breadth of issues for polar regions but rather \r\nit highlights select key policy-relevant topics by synthesising and adding \r\nvalue to the relevant material from AR6 sectoral and regional chapters."


id: 9bf0fd6a81dd54b7cda0c17cfc999310
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24685
content:
"In Arctic seas, warming and other climate impact drivers, primarily \r\nsea ice retreat, have led to range contractions of Arctic marine and \r\nice-associated species and poleward expansions of boreal species \r\n(very high confidence) (Table  CCP6.2) (Bouchard and Fortier, 2020; \r\nHuntington et  al., 2020; Mueter et  al., 2020) even though light \r\nand energetics at seasonal extremes may limit some range shifts \r\n(limited evidence) (Ljungstrom et al., 2021). Altered conditions allow \r\nmore microorganisms to move poleward and provide opportunities \r\nfor invasive species (Cavicchioli et  al., 2019; Nielsen et  al., 2020; "


id: f298d2fb15b9ac8cd83603baf589e162
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40084
content:
"Table CCP6.2 |  Summary of observed impacts (and projected risks of climate change for polar marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems identified in Section 3.2.3 and Box 3.4 \r\nin Chapter 3 of the IPCC SROCC (Meredith et al., 2019)."


id: 7a7f6499c9a219ce589114f8ecf4641c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18743
content:
"Many factors have contributed to changes in Antarctic food webs, \r\nincluding historical exploitation of fish and marine mammals as well \r\nas changes driven by the ozone hole and climate factors (Meredith \r\net al., 2019; Morley et al., 2020; Grant et al., 2021). Most documented \r\nchanges resulting from warming and sea ice losses relate to shifts in \r\nranges and dynamics of species, with most impacts occurring around \r\nthe Antarctic Peninsula (CCP6.2.1.1; Table CCP6.2)."


id: 62b68e5915a324d8f3ae70b029f71468
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14657
content:
"Further evidence shows that warming and changes to the Arctic \r\nhydrologic cycle increase the risk of wildfire (medium confidence) \r\n(Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). Both the frequency of and the area \r\nburned by wildfires during recent years are unprecedented compared \r\nwith the last 10,000  years (high confidence) (Meredith et  al., 2019; \r\nIrannezhad et al., 2020). Fire risk levels are projected to increase across "


id: 92f01944a9b4c2e20197d3985c9512d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23063
content:
"The projected general rise in primary production in Antarctic seas by \r\n2100 (CCP6.2.1.2) suggests a concomitant increase in the abundance "


id: 2336345eaf2980f855e2a0dbea6a65f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3396
content:
"in southern colder locations (medium confidence) (e.g., Kim et  al., \r\n2018; Newsham et al., 2019), as the microbial community structure is \r\naffected by vegetation cover and water availability (high confidence) \r\n(Dennis et al., 2019; Newsham et al., 2019)."


id: 3c4f609707d3699925eb9b8c74450e3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7799
content:
"most tundra and boreal regions, and interactions between climate and \r\nshifting vegetation (Song et al., 2018) will influence future fire intensity \r\nand frequency (medium confidence) (Curtis et al., 2018)."


id: 58d25413b3eb6d9f22b0ebe764605554
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12871
content:
"For all warming scenarios, declines in snow cover in the Arctic by 2050 \r\n(Table CCP6.1) may accelerate vascular plant, moss and lichen extinction \r\nrates (32% for Arctic-alpine and 12% for boreal species), especially after \r\nthe tipping point of 20-30% decrease in snow cover duration is passed \r\n(Niittynen et al., 2018). Even though the overall regional water cycle \r\nwill intensify, including increased precipitation, evapotranspiration \r\nand river discharge to the Arctic Ocean (Table  CCP6.1), snow and \r\npermafrost decline may lead to further soil drying (medium confidence) \r\n(Meredith et al., 2019). Glacial ice melt poses a risk to ecosystems and \r\npeople through remobilisation of sequestered hazardous waste and \r\ntransported pollutants (Table CCP6.3) (Wang et al., 2019)."


id: f93e70d7666dda148fdb4391e459d848
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41213
content:
"Antarctic terrestrial invertebrate communities on the West Antarctic \r\nPeninsula may be controlled more by vegetation and water \r\navailability than by air temperature (medium confidence) (Bokhorst \r\nand Convey, 2016; Knox et  al., 2016; Andriuzzi et  al., 2018; Prather \r\net al., 2019; Newsham et al., 2020). Evidence from laboratory studies, \r\nfield programmes and sedimentary records indicate that Antarctic \r\nfreshwater ecosystems may become more productive under climate \r\nwarming scenarios (medium confidence) (e.g., Schiaffino et al., 2011; \r\nBorghini et al., 2016; Piskova et al., 2019; Cejka et al., 2020)."


id: 6c3e50ac1674e60b38cbf3d871cffeaf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16340
content:
"In the Antarctic, there is further high agreement since the publication of \r\nSROCC that melt and ice-free areas are causing increases in the rates of \r\ncolonisation and utilisation of coastal environments by terrestrial biota \r\nand land-based colonies of seals and birds (Gutt et al., 2021), although \r\ncolonisation rates remain variable (Ruiz-Fernandez et al., 2017; Bokhorst \r\net al., 2021). Soil temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula are now \r\nsufficient for germination of non-native plants; invasions by non\u0002endemic species are expected to increase with rising temperatures (high \r\nconfidence) (Bokhorst et al., 2021), posing a risk to endemic polar species \r\n(medium confidence) (Chown and Brooks, 2019; Gutt et al., 2021)."


id: e78076ab6d2d47bd86499bb256d668d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38034
content:
"Food and fibre production underpins regional identities, cultures and \r\ncommunities of practice and place in polar regions, are vital to local \r\nand distant economies (Table  CCP6.4) and represent for fisheries a \r\ncritical source of global nutrition and food security (Hicks et al., 2019). \r\nSince SROCC, there is further evidence that climate change alterations \r\nof polar ecosystems increasingly challenge production of, and access to, \r\nsufficient, healthy and nutritious food, posing risks to future food and \r\nnutritional security within and beyond polar regions (high confidence)."


id: 8de7bb3beaa8ddc3df3c452396721fdc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22160
content:
"Antarctica encountered its first reported heatwave in 2020 (Table CCP6.1). \r\nSuch abrupt heating can cause wide-ranging effects on biota, from flash\u0002flooding damage and dislodgement of plants to excess melt waters \r\nsupplying moisture to arid Antarctic ecosystems. This suggests that \r\nincreased melt may reverse the drying trend if plant communities remain \r\nconnected to melt streams and there is sufficient precipitation (high \r\nagreement, limited evidence) (Bergstrom et al., 2021)."


id: 51b39aca80e5e96bf3c95d60c58ab0b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11659
content:
"Warming of the Antarctic Peninsula has resulted in increased soil \r\nmicrobial abundance and biomass. However, this trend is not as great "


id: 7a8e6ec4a75e85c2745952a6c7ca0540
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18759
content:
"Table CCP6.3 |  Illustrative examples of climate change impacts on subsistence resources in the Arctic."


id: b6cbf2b1f8f8763ada50384816a1da8e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29360
content:
"seasons in Alaska will lengthen by 48-87 d yr-1 relative to historical \r\ngrowing season length (1981-2010), and the start of growing season \r\nis expected to shift 1-4  weeks earlier (Lader et  al., 2018). Feasible \r\ngrowing areas across the Arctic are expected to shift northward and \r\nincrease within the 55deg-69degN region (King et  al., 2018). Permafrost \r\nthaw (Table CCP6.1) increases drainage, which is a potential benefit, \r\nbut can also increase erosion, subsidence and irregular surfaces, \r\ninhibiting agriculture (Lader et al., 2018). Conversion of Arctic soils to \r\ncroplands may also release carbon stored in vegetation and soils (Unc \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 8a0a8f25f318fd38fa571f766af5c34b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21460
content:
"In addition to reindeer herding, Arctic agriculture primarily consists \r\nof local production of cool season crops, forage, small grains and \r\nlivestock (sheep and goats) (Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015; Natcher \r\net  al., 2019). Short growing seasons, cold conditions, permafrost \r\nand moisture stress, especially along coasts, have historically limited \r\nproduction, but agriculture is generally increasing across the region \r\n(Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015). Although only ~0.2% of Alaska is \r\nfarmland, area farmed and income from agriculture have increased \r\n2% and 80%, respectively, since 2012 (United States Department of \r\nAgriculture, 2017). It is likely that growing seasons have extended by \r\n1-3 days per decade in interior Alaska, although some coastal areas \r\nexhibit declines in growing season (Lader et al., 2018)."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23422
content:
"Arctic aquaculture contributes approximately 2% to global farm \r\nproduction (primarily Norwegian salmon (Salmo salar) as well as finfish \r\nin Iceland and Sweden and shellfish in Alaska), and will face increasing \r\nchallenges from climate change (Troell et al., 2017) including increased \r\nfrequency of storms (impacting sea farms), extreme temperatures \r\nand warmer conditions that favour pathogens, parasites and harmful \r\nalgal blooms. Aquaculture feeds often depend on small pelagic fish \r\nor krill and supply may be affected by climate impacts on fisheries \r\n(Table  CCP6.6) (Troell et  al., 2017; Chen and Tung, 2018; Morkore \r\net al., 2020). Integrated policies and coordination across multiple food \r\nproduction sectors in Arctic regions are needed to address climate \r\nopportunities and challenges (Altdorff et al., 2021; Unc et al., 2021)."


id: 7e89f05fdc2c0fb4ba7e3eff74546b92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19414
content:
"Arctic temperatures rarely exceed thermal tolerances for crops (e.g., \r\n35-38degC across corn, rice and grain), and warming will provide \r\nnew opportunities for food and forage production in areas such as \r\nsouthwest Greenland and interior Alaska (Westergaard-Nielsen et al., \r\n2015; Tripathi et al., 2016; Lader et al., 2018). Higher atmospheric CO2\r\nfavours plant growth if soil quality and condition are sufficient, but \r\nbenefits can be offset by increased heat and water stress associated \r\nwith climate change (Tripathi et al., 2016; Unc et al., 2021). Growing "


id: 28602cac6c2e5b658665c19fe212a692
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4309
content:
"FAQ CCP6.1 | How do changes in ecosystems and human systems in the polar regions impact everyone around the \r\nglobe? How will changes in polar fisheries impact food security and nutrition around the world?"


id: e6adb5b562b993a2a08730a4824a6584
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37880
content:
"Polar regions are commonly known to be experiencing particularly fast and profound climate change, which strongly affects areas and people \r\nall around the world in several ways. Physical processes taking place in these regions are critically important for the global climate and sea \r\nlevel. Less known is that regional climate-driven changes of ecosystems and human communities will also have far-reaching impacts on a \r\nnumber of sectors of human societies at lower latitudes."


id: 815b5f6cee286a84cc8d1ffd2e0e447c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19889
content:
"Table CCP6.4 |  Climate change impacts on Arctic and Antarctic fisheries and fishing communities. Additional detail in Table SMCCP6.3."


id: b6b644a8953f3ac58cdd4b022d680d05
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"well as increased frequency of storms and other extreme events are \r\nexpected to increase risks and costs for fishery operations (medium \r\nconfidence) and impact shore-based infrastructure and emergency \r\nresponse services (CCP6.2.4). Observed and expected increases in \r\nmobile ice combined with abrupt wind can create major hazards \r\nfor fish operators in Antarctica and the Arctic, with consequences to \r\nhuman safety and total revenue (Dawson and et al., 2017; Barber et al., \r\n2018; Grant et al., 2021). There will be increased demand for new port \r\ninfrastructure across the Arctic (high confidence); new ports have "


id: 999764e19e11cb5dfb85ebb1e58dc760
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24256
content:
"Large-scale commercial fisheries are expected to continue to operate in \r\npolar regions (high confidence) (Barange et al., 2018; Cavanagh et al., \r\n2021; Grant et  al., 2021), and will shift poleward (high confidence) \r\ntoward geopolitical and management boundaries (high confidence) \r\n(CCP6.3.2.3; Table  CCP6.6). Warming and climate impacts will \r\ncontinue to impact transboundary stocks and increase the potential \r\nfor conflict in fisheries management (Pinsky et al., 2018; Mendenhall \r\net  al., 2020; Palacios-Abrantes et  al., 2020; Sumaila et  al., 2020). \r\nIncreased distances from ports to redistributed fishing grounds as "


id: 223a0a2d6cf43cf5f1fe1928a28770a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3244
content:
"could cost between $55 million to $213 million CAD to maintain for \r\na shorter period of time than at present (Perrin et al., 2015). Changes \r\nin submarine permafrost, critical to mining infrastructure, such as \r\npipelines and offshore infrastructure (Bashaw et al., 2016; Paulin and \r\nCaines, 2016), are expected to increase production costs and impact \r\nsafety for workers (Riedel et al., 2017). By mid-century, regardless of \r\nemissions scenario, it is expected that risks from permafrost thaw will \r\nbe disproportionately high for industrial infrastructure along major \r\npipeline systems in Alaska and natural gas extraction areas in the \r\nYamal-Nenets region in northwestern Siberia, Russia (Hjort et al., 2018)."


id: ad6ef87c219103f8bbda23de415fd1fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27752
content:
"already been proposed for the Northern Bering Sea, and small craft \r\nharbour investments are being considered across Arctic Canada and \r\nGreenland. Ecosystem-based management (EBM), increasing diversity \r\nand flexibility in harvest portfolios as well as access to high-resolution \r\necological forecasts and projections, and climate-informed advice will \r\npromote adaptation and climate resilience in fisheries (Dawson and \r\net  al., 2017; Brooks et  al., 2018; Karp et  al., 2019; Hollowed et  al., \r\n2020). Coupling adaptation measures with global carbon mitigation \r\nstrategies substantially decreases climate change risks to polar \r\nfisheries (very high confidence) (CCP6.3)."


id: 34368145c221f70529182dd6b0a88f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6422
content:
"Climate hazards create risks to transportation sectors with \r\nconsequences for human safety (very high confidence), security (low \r\nconfidence) and economic development (high confidence). Remote \r\npolar regions are highly reliant on transportation systems (air, road, \r\nsea) to support and service communities (Arctic) and scientific \r\nstations (Antarctic and Arctic). Changes in permafrost, snow, ice and \r\nprecipitation patterns have increased the risk of rail infrastructure \r\nand of using permanent roads and semi-permanent trails that service \r\nAntarctic research stations, connect Arctic communities and support \r\nIndigenous food harvesting activities (Calmels et  al., 2015; Council \r\nof Canadian Academies, 2016; Ford et al., 2019; Stewart et al., 2020). \r\nWarming temperatures have particularly decreased the reliability, \r\nsafety level and season length of winter ice roads (Perrin et al., 2015; "


id: 86fa21bcc8d1d18f53a3c4ed0cf2ae70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20909
content:
"thaw and flooding (high confidence) (CCP6.2.2). Opportunities for \r\ncommunity development in small communities are underestimated as \r\nthey are emergent and unknown (highly likely) (CCP6.2.5)."


id: 75b355b4bf81497f9befd92592de2a4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17936
content:
"Degradation of ice-rich permafrost can threaten the structural stability \r\nand functional capacities of community-based infrastructure (i.e., \r\nairports and roads; CCP6.2.5) and can have implications for local \r\neconomies with coupled impacts for local livelihoods, health and well\u0002being (CCP6.2.5, CCP6.2.6) (high confidence). For instance, in Canada, \r\ninfrastructure damage from permafrost instability caused temporary \r\nclosures of schools in Yukon, permafrost degradation contributed \r\nto runway damage at Iqaluit International Airport in Nunavut, and \r\nflooding from heavy rains resulted in thermal erosion of river banks that \r\ninterrupted water and sewage service in Nunavut (Oldenborger and \r\nLeBlanc, 2015; Council of Canadian Academies, 2016; Lemmen et al., \r\n2016). In northeast Siberia, the floods of Alazaeya River attributed to \r\nthawing permafrost have severely affected Andreyushkino in Yakutia \r\n(Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021)."


id: 21d655eb011ad2f1d12438db01b9f254
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3173
content:
"By 2050, 69% of fundamental human infrastructure in the Arctic is \r\nprojected to be at risk under an RCP4.5 scenario, including more than \r\n1200 settlements and 36,000 buildings, leaving 4,000,000 people living \r\nin areas with high potential for thaw (Hjort et al., 2018). Widespread "


id: 1168992ee0f5f784240c0d3949d677ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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vector_id: 258
content:
"Polar settlements range from large well-serviced cities such as Tromso, \r\nMurmansk and Reykjavik, to remote fly-in Indigenous communities, \r\nto scientific outposts and research stations. Polar settlements are at \r\nsignificant risk from climate change through shoreline erosion, permafrost "


id: f53d7acba1a2b0c52e3cfbd9e7598ca7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40515
content:
"FAQ CCP6.2 | Is sea ice reduction in the polar regions driving an increase in shipping traffic?\r\nThe polar seas have captured the imagination of global nations for centuries for its natural resource, tourism, scientific, and maritime trade \r\npotential. As the polar regions are warming at two to three times the rate of the global average leading to rapid reductions in sea ice extent \r\nand thickness, international attention has been reinvigorated and investments are being made by Arctic and non-Arctic nations alike with a \r\nview to utilise newly accessible seaways. Between 2013 and 2019, ship traffic entering the Arctic grew by 25% and the total distance travelled \r\nincreased by 75%. Similar shipping growth trends are evident in the Antarctic, albeit to a lesser extent. Expected growth in Arctic shipping will \r\ninfluence a suite of cascading environmental and cultural risks with implications for Indigenous Peoples."


id: e8ab2c4074cd7c4f40320c5069de9f6a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38281
content:
"before it disappears or is irreversibly changed as is the case with last chance tourists. As sea ice recedes and polar \r\nshipping opportunities grow, there will be an increased need to better identify and implement Indigenous self-deter\u0002mined and equitable shipping governance frameworks that facilitate benefits and minimise risks."


id: 49d92e066d6281b697a4441fa0a6050d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10232
content:
"proactive adaptation was substantially cost-saving (reducing costs \r\nby $2.9  billion USD for RCP8.5 and $2.3  billion USD for RCP4.5), \r\nhighlighting the financial benefit of investing in adaptation now (Melvin \r\net al., 2017). Permafrost damage and SLR may result in tipping points, \r\nleaving some communities no longer habitable. In Alaska, USA, many \r\ncommunities at risk of flooding and storm surges are already engaged \r\nin community-led relocation planning processes (e.g., Shishmaref) \r\n(Melvin et al., 2017; Farbotko et al., 2020; Rosales et al., 2021)."


id: c98cbcadffbe4adc8e44ec9bada30709
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32783
content:
"Climate change has important intangible loss and damage implications \r\nin the Arctic, with negative impacts ranging from livelihoods to \r\nspirituality to solastalgia (i.e., distress caused by environmental change) \r\n(Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018; Middleton et al., 2020b; Sawatzky et al., 2020; \r\nMustonen and Shadrin, 2021). Permafrost thaw, SLR and reduced sea \r\nice protection also presents risk to sociocultural assets, including \r\nheritage sites in all Arctic regions (very high confidence) (Friesen, "


id: d65c437d1a0284dfd5c36f5a925d1fb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35023
content:
"For thousands of years, Arctic Indigenous Peoples and local communities have survived several major changes to the ecosystems on which they \r\nrely; however, the present changes in climate are more challenging than pre- and early historic changes in the Arctic, and polar communities \r\nwill now face new unprecedented risks."


id: 3f8a198eb22529598323b3e90c18c1d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8367
content:
"The challenges for responding to present change are due to the multiple imposed and simultaneous drivers \r\ncombined with elimination and/or removal of endemic capacity to respond in culturally and locally appropriate \r\nways. Adapting in the past may therefore inform and produce novel solutions for the present and convey baselines \r\nof important contextual information on significance of change. Arctic communities, especially Indigenous Peoples, \r\nhave been marginalised in terms of their autonomous responses spaces and self-assessment that could be made \r\nwithout external pressures. Therefore, to increase the possibility of community-led adaptation, colonialism and \r\nthe resultant lack of upheld rights, resources and equity need to be solved simultaneously with the present climate \r\nchange impacts. New research, governance, policy and collaborations are needed to effectively adapt to risks that \r\nare projected to emerge in the polar regions as a result of rapid climate change."


id: eda9ccfd6b14f311eb7892b34a87d530
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39174
content:
"multiple direct and indirect pathways stemming from acute (e.g., major \r\nstorms, flooding, wildfires) and chronic (e.g., temperature increases, \r\nsea ice loss, permafrost thaw) environmental conditions, and resulting \r\ndisruptions to livelihoods, culture, food systems, social connections, \r\nhealth systems and economies (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013a; Cunsolo \r\nWillox et al., 2013b; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2014; Beaumier et al., 2015; \r\nDurkalec et al., 2015; Hamilton et al., 2016; Clayton et al., 2017; Dodd \r\net al., 2018; Jaakkola et al., 2018; Markon et al., 2018; ITK, 2019; Minor \r\net al., 2019; Middleton et al., 2020a; Middleton et al., 2020b; Feodoroff, \r\n2021)."


id: 4dc1b9a407332f6b14119953e8e40d46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10951
content:
"2015; Hollesen et al., 2016; Radosavljevic et al., 2016; O'Rourke, 2017; \r\nHillerdal et  al., 2019; Fenger-Nielsen et  al., 2020; Jensen, 2020). A \r\nlarge number of archaeological sites are at risk from climate change in \r\nsouthwest Greenland; Yukon's Beaufort coast, Canada; and Auyuittuq \r\nNational Park Reserve, Nunavut, Canada (Westley et al., 2011; Hollesen \r\net al., 2018; Irrgang et al., 2019; Fenger-Nielsen et al., 2020). Siberian \r\nnomadic reindeer herding and fishing livelihoods are vulnerable to \r\npermafrost thaw, which alters northern landscapes and lakes, as well \r\nas rain-on-snow events, and rapidly changes landscapes and terrestrial \r\nand aquatic habitats (Mustonen and Mustonen, 2016; Brattland \r\nand Mustonen, 2018; Mustonen and Huusari, 2020) (CCP6.2.2). The \r\nintangible loss and damage to nomadic cultures could cascade to \r\nlosses of identity and social challenges (CCP6.2.6; Chapter 13)."


id: 1a5d8705d128bc1244bc49c1012785b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1837
content:
"Negative mental health outcomes from climate change include: \r\nemotional reactions (e.g., sadness, fear, anger, distress and anxiety); \r\npsychosocial outcomes (e.g., depression, post-traumatic stress disorder \r\nand generalised anxiety); experiences with grief and loss (i.e., ecological \r\ngrief); increased drug and alcohol usage, family stress and domestic \r\nviolence; increased suicide ideation and suicides; loss of cultural \r\nknowledge and continuity, disruptions to intergenerational knowledge \r\ntransfer; and deterioration and loss of place-based identities and \r\nconnections (i.e., solastalgia) (Cunsolo Willox et  al., 2013a; Cunsolo \r\nWillox et al., 2013b; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2014; Durkalec et al., 2015; \r\nHarper et al., 2015; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018; Hayes et al., 2018; Jaakkola \r\net al., 2018; Markon et al., 2018; Minor et al., 2019; Middleton et al., \r\n2020a; Feodoroff, 2021)."


id: 42377de9091748f8fab567ffb44036a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8851
content:
"The negative mental health impacts from climate change are amplified \r\namong those most reliant on the environment for subsistence and \r\nlivelihoods, those who already face chronic physical or mental health \r\nissues, and those facing socioeconomic inequities and marginalisation, \r\nparticularly for Indigenous Peoples (high confidence). These climate \r\nchange related mental health impacts are unequally distributed \r\n(Cunsolo Willox et  al., 2014; Minor et  al., 2019), and may vary by \r\ngender (Beaumier et al., 2015; Harper et al., 2015; Feodoroff, 2021) and \r\nage (Petrasek MacDonald et al., 2013; Ostapchuk et al., 2015; Petrasek \r\nMacDonald et al., 2015; Kowalczewski and Klein, 2018)."


id: adf8d57d6d15d24de9f94e9ecd64444
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27849
content:
"Climate change will increase mental health risks in the Arctic in the \r\nfuture (medium confidence). Future risks include exposures to severe \r\nweather events and changing precipitation patterns, sea ice loss, \r\nwildfires and changing place attachment, as well as disruptions to \r\nunderlying determinants of mental health and social support networks \r\n(Cunsolo Willox et  al., 2014; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018; Markon et  al., \r\n2018; Council of Canadian Academies, 2019; ITK, 2019; Middleton \r\net al., 2020a; Middleton et al., 2020b)."


id: 5536980bf3f2d02684bec35077308ac8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12266
content:
"There is limited evidence assessing adaptation options that \r\neffectively reduce climate-related mental health risks, but developing \r\nor enhancing access to mental health resources and infrastructure is \r\ncritical, such as land-based healing programmes, enhanced access \r\nto culturally appropriate mental health resources, and climate\u0002specific counselling services to support individual and community \r\npsychosocial resilience, particularly among Arctic Indigenous Peoples \r\n(Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018; Middleton et  al., 2020a). Incorporating a \r\nclimate-sensitive mental health lens into mitigation and adaptation \r\nplanning holds potential for increasing mental health and resilience \r\nin the Arctic, as well as supporting other social, economic and cultural \r\nco-benefits."


id: f6cf765d43d90bdfda67ff0e2ef83b16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40789
content:
"Indirect exposure(s)\r\n(e.g., disruptions to food systems, \r\ncultural activities, place-based \r\nknowledge sharing and livelihoods;\r\ndisplacement and relocation)"


id: dbf1ae9c3e2c7fd1d5fb50bd8bda8556
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35982
content:
"Chronic changes \r\n(e.g., sea ice loss, sea level rise, \r\ncoastal erosion, permafrost melting, \r\nrising temperatures, changing \r\nseasonal and environmental norms, \r\nchanges in wildlife and vegetation, \r\nchanges in place)"


id: 2f4cece5f2f8bb141e66e4bba299d4d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5589
content:
"Figure CCP6.3 |  The pathways through which climate change impacts mental and emotional health in the Arctic."


id: 6f1f34e57d4a56b5bcd3ccb91b408646
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16819
content:
"Box CCP6.2 | Arctic Indigenous Self-determination in Climate Change Assessment and Decision \r\nMaking"


id: 4dc4d32d8f878980678ebe990395bc53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10955
content:
"Similar to Indigenous Peoples globally (Cross-Chapter Box  INDIG in Chapter 18), climate change vulnerability for Arctic Indigenous \r\nPeoples is often rooted in colonialism, which has led to land dispossession and displacement, carbon-intensive economies, discrimination, \r\nracism, marginalisation and social, cultural and health inequities (Whyte, 2016; Whyte, 2017; Whyte et al., 2019; Chakraborty and Sherpa, \r\n2021). Therefore, effective responses to climate change risks for Indigenous Peoples are self-determined and underpinned by Indigenous \r\nknowledge (IK) (very high confidence)."


id: 27c754ac564a3e3b0c11186737a51661
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4187
content:
"IK systems are diverse among and within Arctic Indigenous Peoples, and reflect deep and rich knowledge that situates and contextualises \r\nvalues, traditions, governance and practical ways of adapting to the ecosystem over millennia (Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017; Brattland \r\nand Mustonen, 2018). IK is a valuable source of knowledge; a method to detect change, evaluate risk and inform adaptation approaches; \r\nand a cultural ecological service (Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; Crate et al., 2019; Meredith et al., 2019) that is critical for decision \r\nmaking (Mustonen and Mustonen, 2016; Huntington et al., 2017). For instance, Kalaallit knowledge in Greenland has been used to detect \r\nand attribute long-term (over 50 years) marine change that reaches beyond scientific instrumental data (Mustonen et al., 2018b)."


id: e80f625e2bc902ceeb4d2898d7efaeea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38143
content:
"This Box was written by Indigenous authors, recognising that IK and LK are intellectual property (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter \r\n18), alleviating the risk of this knowledge being misinterpreted (David-Chavez and Gavin, 2018; Hughes, 2018; Raymond-Yakoubian \r\nand Daniel, 2018) and acknowledging that meaningful inclusion of Indigenous Peoples strengthens and supports Indigenous self\u0002determination (ITK, 2019). Self-determination signifies and values the capacity and decisions made by these peoples in their own right \r\nand from their own autonomous cultural positioning. Following the format used in SROCC, this Box prioritises Indigenous voices by \r\npresenting climate change assessments premised on IK and written by Indigenous Peoples."


id: 4b29c0a7ec47718ff74d312bb3919626
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10467
content:
"Climate change threatens reindeer herding, hunting, fishing and gathering, which form the basis of Siberian Indigenous societies. \r\nNomadic herding lifestyle is premised on IK which has accumulated over millennia. IK, including the ability to predict weather, has \r\nplayed a substantial role in the adaptation to the extreme conditions. According to Shadrin (2021), present, rapid changes are changing \r\nIndigenous concepts of reality; they are increasingly finding themselves in situations where their experience and knowledge cannot help \r\nthem. An Elder in Northeast Siberia explained that 'nature does not trust us anymore' (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021)."


id: 912b144a99308fb533568246c53d1cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22745
content:
"A major problem for nomadic reindeer herding is the degradation of reindeer pastures (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). The expansion \r\nof willows and shrubs into the tundra has resulted in losses of pastures. In other nomadic communities, these changes have led to the \r\nexpansion of moose into tundra area and effects of reindeer populations, as well as changes in wild reindeer migration routes leading to \r\nthe destruction of domestic reindeer pastures (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021)."


id: 14c0f6e608a5dc083b2051dbafda0e7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 878
content:
"Climate change impacts Indigenous Peoples' health. Degradation of the quality of surface waters has increased, resulting from new \r\nfloods and the thawing of permafrost, which increases risk of gastrointestinal diseases (CCP6.2.8). The 2007 flood on Alazaya River was \r\nof special importance and was locally identified to have produced the first regional 'climate refugees' (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). \r\nWarming has expanded the distribution of new disease-carrying insects and ticks into new territories (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). \r\nAncient cemeteries and campsites, as well as the burial sites of reindeer, become dangerous as permafrost thaws and coastal erosion \r\nproceeds."


id: 8a035c005dace63cb2d9301f1782e9f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21451
content:
"Traditional food security is under threat. Permafrost-based storage facilities have deteriorated (CCP6.2.6) (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). \r\nThere is an increase in the number of people who are forced to abandon the consumption of raw fish. As a result, the likelihood of losing \r\ncultural traditions is growing. These combined climate change impacts result in loss of IK and nomadic lifestyles, thus losing important \r\naspects of their identity as distinct Indigenous Peoples (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021)."


id: 4c09758d61d9dbd32366a0e74510a53a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10640
content:
"Inuit have survived and thrived in Inuit Nunaat, their homelands, for millennia. In an environment that presents unique challenges, they \r\nhave cultivated resourceful and innovative approaches tailored to their surroundings. Their values and knowledge guide their relationships \r\nwith all that is within the Arctic, and this has informed their decisions and management practices that continue to be in place today (Inuit \r\nCircumpolar Council Alaska, 2020). They are experts in adaptation. Now more than ever, in the time of anthropogenic climate change, \r\nliving in the fastest warming region on the planet requires this expertise and capacity."


id: 4f9933892f6d2806860bafac1fc601dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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vector_id: 11292
content:
"However, while Inuit are often recognised as leaders in adaptation, too often the academic literature ends there, citing 'successful Inuit\u0002led adaptation to climate change' but not going further to explore towards what end this adaptation is designed. We have demonstrated \r\nleadership and set an example for the world in how to respond to change, but successful adaptation is not enough; it is not the end goal."


id: 3b657731e98fbd3063b21e41b97660fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7640
content:
"Central to their significant capacity to adapt is that it is done in recognition of the need to move beyond adaptation. Indeed, Inuit-led \r\nadaptation action is founded on the intention of contributing to and moving towards reformation and eventual transformation of systems \r\nto create a 'climate resilient' Arctic. This concept has surfaced in academic climate change literature and discussion and has begun to \r\nfilter into the climate policy arena, especially within the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic that challenges us all to think about \r\nour world differently. With acknowledgement that reform and transformation is needed, the question remains, 'What does this look like?'"


id: 268b788f8877b75f527fbe7c6f87f196
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3945
content:
"Inuit have an answer. System reform and transformation is grounded in self-determination. It is based in a human rights framework and \r\nrooted in IK and culture. It recognises and respects interconnectedness and builds this into solutions. It demands collaboration and true \r\npartnership towards action. And it comes from thinking big and across scales. Shaping this change calls for willingness and support to \r\nrethink the current economic and governance models that have failed us. For example, decentralising governance and management, \r\nwhile it remains largely unconventional, has been shown to create some of the strongest systems we have. This is, in large part, due to \r\nthe way in which decentralisation places more value and responsibility on the 'self' in self-determination. Decentralised processes in the \r\nArctic have IK holders playing a key and lead role in determining, defining and deciding how to work towards positive change."


id: ad3f7a3337a883e8b10780bcd8a57200
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27718
content:
"Across Inuit Nunaat, examples of direct management and control over lands, territories and resources have demonstrated that working \r\nfrom what is happening on the ground throughout their homelands, from their priorities and interests, has served to strengthen the \r\nhealth of their environment and their communities. For example, a comparative analysis on factors supporting and impeding Inuit food \r\nsovereignty between Alaska and the Inuvialuit Settlement Region found that the difference in outcomes within these regions is dependent \r\non explicit respect for and recognition of the Inuit right of self-determination (Inuit Circumpolar Council Alaska, 2020). Furthermore, a \r\nnew agreement achieved in Nunavut by the Qikiqtani Inuit Association related to the marine environment touted as an exemplary model \r\nfor marine management is rooted in Inuit-determined structures and policies, and manifested by Inuit themselves (QIA, 2019)."


id: ee8064dceff7709c364bd1cc6d4e7bc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39337
content:
"Emphasis on decentralised management and substantial funding to do so at the grassroots level has been recognised by the IPCC \r\npreviously in the SROCC. Ultimately, going beyond reform to system transformation requires, as Oren Lyons has stated, 'value change for \r\nsurvival' (Lyons, 2020). Valuing decentralisation, self-determination, Inuit knowledge, interconnectedness--core values held by Inuit--\r\ncan move us in a climate-resilient direction."


id: e6a17f1330c1c9884c6679661cb1fdfe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37868
content:
"The majority of adaptations in the Arctic are occurring at sub-regional \r\nlevels in response to both observed and projected climate change, with \r\nevidence of increasing regional level action driven by climate planning \r\nprocesses of subnational governments (AMAP, 2017; Labbe et al., 2017; \r\nAMAP, 2018a; Canosa et al., 2020). Implemented adaptation includes \r\nalterations to building codes and infrastructure design (Shiklomanov \r\net al., 2017; Flynn et al., 2019; Standards Council of Canada, 2020), \r\nsurveillance (Ruscio et al., 2015; Ford and Clark, 2019; Meredith et al., \r\n2019), information sharing (Berner et al., 2016), changes to survey and \r\nmonitoring design (Stevenson and Lauth, 2019), hazard mapping (Flynn \r\net  al., 2019), use of new technologies (Tejsner and Veldhuis, 2018; \r\nGalappaththi et al., 2019), the development of regional and municipal \r\nadaptation plans (Labbe et al., 2017), shifting stocks and changes in "


id: 8e7fdfa94906c26f809c1129378a6f24
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22259
content:
"Across polar regions, adaptation responses to climate change impacts \r\nhave ranged from rapid and incremental (e.g., shifting phenologies, \r\nalternative harvest or herding strategies) to large and transformative \r\n(e.g., switching livelihoods, social-ecological system transformation) "


id: def919a00afbe1e017d69a2127aeccd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36484
content:
"Table CCP6.5 |  Key risks (KR) and illustrative examples in polar regions identified through the processes described in Chapter 16 and SMCCP6.4."


id: 9c17ad39131bd926173495514fc4a87f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24716
content:
"fishery operations and location (Jorgensen et al., 2019; Fedewa et al., \r\n2020; Thompson et  al., 2020), alterations to subsistence harvesting \r\nactivities (Anderson et al., 2018; Ford et al., 2018; Galappaththi et al., \r\n2019), co-production of knowledge (Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, \r\n2018) and application of IK for resource management (Robards et al., \r\n2018) and to monitor storms (Rosales et  al., 2021; Simonee et  al., \r\n2021). Pan-Arctic and national-level adaptation remains limited (Ford \r\net al., 2014; Canosa et al., 2020), although there have been few efforts \r\nto examine the nature of adaptation responses in Arctic regions and \r\nlarge gaps in understanding."


id: 255f0fac749176eb21bd6108493c0f96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3763
content:
"Illustrative examples of direct and cascading risks, enabling principles \r\nof climate resilience pathways, anticipated future conditions (with \r\ncertainty levels and compounding risks for key sectors within polar \r\nregions) are outlined in Table  CCP6.6. A list of adaptation options \r\nresponding directly to the challenges outlined for each sector, including \r\nan analysis of adaptation effectiveness and feasibility and cross \r\nreferenced with KR assessed in this chapter (Table CCP6.5), is provided \r\nin Figure CCP6.6."


id: bfdd9795dd212be6b382f72f3f83d43a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31046
content:
"The need for self-determination for Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities in decision making and cooperation across Arctic nations \r\nto manage a rapidly changing Arctic is increasingly recognised, \r\nparticularly in a shipping and wildlife management context where \r\nclimate impacts will be transboundary and multi-sectoral (Spence, \r\n2017; Forbis and Hayhoe, 2018; Ford and Clark, 2019; Dawson et al., \r\n2020) (CCP6.2.6; Box CCP6.2). Effective Indigenous and community\u0002led adaptation efforts have been implemented across the Arctic to \r\nalleviate climate and non-climate stressors and build resilience \r\nthrough restoration and conservation (Huntington et  al., 2017; "


id: 863cf1b1b93e0b8e8c2615debcf9b18e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"Figure CCP6.4 |  Rapid assessment for relative risk by sector (y-axis) and climate hazard (x-axis) for polar regions based on an assessment of asset-specific \r\nvulnerability and exposure across climate hazards (see SMCCP6.4 for methodological details). For each unique combination, the hazard by sector risk was ranked as \r\nvery high (very high risk and high confidence), high (significant impacts and risk, high to medium confidence), medium (impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change, \r\nmedium confidence) or low/not detected/positive (risk is low or not detectable). Blank cells are those where the assessment was not applicable or not conducted. Risks identified \r\nthrough the rapid assessment were further evaluated in the chapter assessments (see corresponding sector text for full assessment of risk and impacts)."


id: 2957c4c6b0a1181a6becf748afe68d5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4489
content:
"Figure CCP6.5 |  Burning ember of the relative risks to select assets in the polar regions as a function of global mean surface temperature increase since \r\npre-industrial times including: (1) sea ice ecosystems, (2) marine mammals, (3) sea birds, (4) fisheries, (5) infrastructure (Arctic only), (6) local mobility (Arctic \r\nonly) and (7) coastal erosion (Arctic only). The supporting literature and methods are provided in SMCCP6.5"


id: e49a60dd56cdb55d78772999e4816179
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37504
content:
"explicit inclusion of climate change impacts and risk in planning \r\nand design (high confidence) (Cherry et al., 2017; Lauta et al., 2018; \r\nMeredith et al., 2019). There is limited evidence of transformational \r\nadaptation taking place in the policy arena (e.g., U.S. Executive Order \r\n13990, 2021), but many examples of how impacts and responses \r\nto climate change have transformed social-ecological connections, \r\ntraditions, markets, trade and livelihoods of Arctic residents and \r\nIndigenous Peoples (Ford et al., 2015)."


id: 6410d2145f9b652624cb6298d220be48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14890
content:
"In a study of adaptation progress across the Arctic from 2004 to 2019, \r\n233 cases of adaptation were documented, with the majority of actions \r\nprimarily behavioural and reactionary in nature and undertaken in \r\nthe subsistence harvesting sector, with resource management, and \r\ninfrastructure and transportation other prominent sectors where \r\nadaptation responses were documented to be occurring (Canosa et al., \r\n2020). The study found few changes in the profile of adaptation over \r\ntime, except for an increase in responses being motivated solely by \r\nclimate impacts, and few cases of transformational change, although \r\nit should be noted that a lack of data on adaptation actions makes \r\ndocumenting trends challenging. Human health is generally under\u0002represented in adaptation initiatives, along with adaptations being \r\ndeveloped within larger Arctic settlements (Ford et al., 2014; Canosa \r\net al., 2020), and in many sectors decisions continue to be made without "


id: b7cb8a8e94908018c1f62cd8058bc38f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29553
content:
"In polar regions, multiple entities operate simultaneously to manage \r\nlands and resources, resulting in layered approaches and policies for \r\nthe same sector or region, only some of which are synergistic and a \r\nfew of which may counter each other (e.g., Southern Ocean: Solomonsz \r\net al., 2021). Climate change and attendant uncertainty can undermine "


id: 94fed26dbcda31423089629bd17ac5c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23419
content:
"Climate change impacts, risks, and potential for adaptation in Arctic (upper panel)\r\nand Antarctic (lower panel) social ecological systems."


id: 43a874bcc954440f3db8d7e97969d81b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9127
content:
"2021). Policies that foster stewardship yet also allow for diversification \r\nin fisheries may further attenuate climate shocks to individual fisheries \r\n(Kasperski and Holland, 2013; Fisher et al., 2021) and stabilise catches \r\n(e.g., US Bering Sea pollock fleet (Watson and Haynie, 2018)). Inclusive \r\nand participatory decision making underpins long-term resilience \r\nto climate change (medium confidence)(Flynn et  al., 2018; Ford \r\net al., 2020), but a high cost of participation can disproportionately \r\nfavour entities with strong investment, ample resources and extreme \r\nviewpoints such that decision outcomes are not in the broad interest \r\nof polar societies (Lynham et al., 2017)."


id: 4744f9647b507367aa9465f4ab63345a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9745
content:
"stakeholder confidence in management, leading to less effective \r\nmanagement even when scientific understanding is stable (Mumby \r\net  al., 2017). In the Arctic, large landscapes, dispersed population \r\ncentres, limited resources and settler colonialism are structural barriers \r\nto effective planning, emergency response, and relief and recovery \r\nfrom climate impacts (medium confidence), which limit adaptation and \r\nsometimes exacerbate climate and non-climate pressures on social and \r\necological systems (Ford et  al., 2015; Ford et  al., 2020; Snook et  al., \r\n2020)."


id: 3792688d04af3474262a3740c304ffb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6989
content:
"When environmental variability is within the range of the current adaptive management approaches, the social-ecological system can thrive. \r\nHowever, the rapidly changing polar systems are causing disruptions to societies, economies and ecosystems. The current management systems \r\nare yet to develop procedures for managing rapid change being experienced in warming waters, sea ice declines, permafrost thaw and erosion, \r\nand poleward shifts in species. These challenges are expected to become more pronounced within a few decades rather than later this century."


id: 78901472c27dbc7d8f0907b6f5a6bdd8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18409
content:
"Polar regions are naturally dynamic environments. Ecosystems in polar regions, and the people who rely on them, \r\nhave adapted to natural variability and dynamic nature of polar environments. Fish populations in polar regions \r\nare known to exhibit cycles of productivity, and shift their distribution across hundreds of kilometres in response to \r\nchanges in winter sea ice cover and concomitant summer ocean conditions. Management of the productive fisheries \r\nin polar regions is also designed to allow for these changes, using adaptive and ecosystem-based approaches that \r\nbuffer populations from overexploitation and also stabilise fisheries, livelihoods and food resources. Indigenous \r\nPeoples diversify their subsistence harvest across species and resources and, therefore, similarly stabilise food and \r\nnutritional security. "


id: 3cc2f7b1908fe8fc209810a9f6a8b84e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7874
content:
"solastalgia and ecological grief (Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018), and some \r\nIndigenous practices and cultural assets, such as burial grounds, \r\nnomadic camp sites, graveyards, seasonal dwellings, and routes and \r\npathways causing disruptions to mind and memory (Mustonen and \r\nMustonen, 2016). Recognising these intangible losses and damages \r\nis critical for understanding how to achieve climate resilience in the \r\nArctic (Tschakert et al., 2019; Sawatzky et al., 2020)."


id: 854d5eab027e288962cede7d3e6f1c4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20589
content:
"The polar regions are expected to experience many economic \r\ndevelopment opportunities as a result of climate change, including \r\nincreased accessibility for shipping and attractiveness for fisheries and \r\ntourism (CCP6.2.3.1, CCP6.2.4). For polar regions, equitable climate \r\nresilient development requires diverse perspectives in planning and \r\nimplementation. In the Arctic, cultural, social and economic dimensions \r\nof Indigenous Peoples and local communities are critical (Ritsema \r\net al., 2015; Huntington et al., 2021). For both poles, there are global \r\ncultural connections to polar systems (Roberts et al., 2021), along with \r\nimportant global and local needs for sustained ecosystems and their \r\nservices, in the face of diminishing polar zonal conditions (Cavanagh \r\net al., 2021; Murphy et al., 2021; Solomonsz et al., 2021)."


id: 94bfa4aeececf53f4eacf21b6155a6e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23381
content:
"For the Antarctic, the governance for managing climate impacts is \r\nemerging, particularly for terrestrial and nearshore habitats (high \r\nconfidence) (Hughes et al., 2018; Chown and Brooks, 2019). However, \r\nit is poorly developed for marine ecosystems, despite its importance \r\nfor decision making (Trebilco et al., 2020; Goldsworthy and Brennan, \r\n2021). A diversity of stakeholders is involved in developing evidence\u0002based management for the region, which presents challenges for \r\nadaptation planning (Solomonsz et al., 2021), particularly in identifying \r\nsustainable practices in a changing environment (Constable et  al., \r\n2017; Brooks et  al., 2018). Spatial management for enhancing the \r\nresilience of endemic polar biodiversity is increasingly proposed as the \r\nbest option for managing risks of climate change (Chown and Brooks, \r\n2019)."


id: 1586127486e8baa0bb8698f7b59955d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 999
content:
"Sustainable pathways integrating across sectors, and taking account of \r\nlocal and global connections, can be readily achieved in polar regions \r\nto balance trade-offs between economic, ecological and sociocultural \r\nimperatives, yet challenges remain (Murphy et  al., 2021). Notably, \r\nterrestrial areas of greatest interest for infrastructure development, \r\nagriculture and visitation potential are often also the same areas that \r\nhave been identified as culturally and ecologically significant (PEW, \r\n2016; Eliasson et  al., 2017; Grant et  al., 2021) (high confidence). \r\nDevelopment of low-impact shipping corridors in Arctic Canada \r\nis an example of an effective mechanism where climate-resilient \r\ninfrastructure can be prioritised and where regulation (voluntary and \r\nenforced) focused on cascading climatic risks can be implemented \r\n(Chenier et al., 2017; Dawson et al., 2020)."


id: e630636e02108fd669aa40416b1b1ef5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37802
content:
"Many losses and damages within Indigenous contexts are not able \r\nto be monetised but can be profound, such as loss of Indigenous \r\nlanguages (CAFF, 2013), loss of IK associated with nomadic lifestyles \r\nand cultures (Box  CCP6.2), and loss of geographical knowledge \r\nassociated with an intimate knowledge of landscapes across seasons \r\n(Brattland and Mustonen, 2018), changing landscapes resulting in "


id: f56c5c0b413a554362501c394f136f78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40545
content:
"CCP6.4.3 Enabling Climate Resilience in the Arctic: Self\u0002determination and Indigenous Peoples' Rights"


id: 76df3867d348a13b43d1b9e37b3100b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18125
content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Authors: Gusti Zakaria Anshari (Indonesia), Noemi Chacon (Venezuela), \r\nAidan Farrell (Trinidad and Tobago/Ireland), Sharina Abdul Halim (Malaysia), Henry Neufeldt \r\n(Denmark/Germany), Raman Sukumar (India)."


id: 996fa385c8d8c7fd6aa58112e6028ce2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24221
content:
"Cross-Chapter Paper Contributing Authors: Christa Anderson (USA), Craig Beatty (USA/\r\nCanada), Nirmal Bhagabati (USA), Ana Felicien (Venezuela), Gabrielle Kissinger (Canada), David \r\nM. Lapola (Brazil), Felipe S. Pacheco (Brazil), Pablo Pacheco (USA/Bolivia), Sandeep Pulla (India), \r\nYong Yut Trisurat (Thailand)"


id: 8b314ae9ce685c09d8c09f93177d4d7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21653
content:
"Ometto, J.P., K. Kalaba, G.Z. Anshari, N. Chacon, A. Farrell, S.A. Halim, H. Neufeldt, and R. Sukumar, 2022: Cross\u0002Chapter Paper 7: Tropical Forests. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of \r\nWorking Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, \r\nD.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, \r\nA. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2369-2410, \r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009325844.024."


id: 710050e558ac960eaf73db477dd97bae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17144
content:
"Community-based adaptation, built on Indigenous knowledge \r\nand local knowledge (IK and LK) over centuries or millennia, \r\nis often identified as an effective adaptation strategy to \r\nclimate change (high confidence). For successful adaptation \r\nof tropical forest communities, it is vital to consider IK and LK in \r\naddition to modern scientific approaches, together with consideration \r\nof non-climatic vulnerabilities (e.g., poverty, gender inequality and \r\npower asymmetries) (high confidence). Climate change vulnerability \r\nand adaptive capacity have a historical and geopolitical context, \r\nconditioned by value systems and development models. Transformative \r\nand sustainable practices are required for effective management of \r\ntropical forests (high confidence). {CCP7.4; Box CCP7.1}"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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vector_id: 2777
content:
"Over 420 million ha of forest were lost to deforestation from \r\n1990 to 2020; more than 90% of that loss took place in tropical \r\nareas (high confidence), threatening biodiversity, environmental \r\nservices, livelihoods of forest communities and resilience \r\nto climate shocks (high confidence1\r\n). Forty-five percent of the \r\nworld's forested areas are in the tropics, and they are among the most \r\nimportant regulators of regional and global climate, natural carbon \r\nsinks and the most significant repositories of terrestrial biomass. They \r\nare of immeasurable value to biodiversity, ecosystem services, social \r\nand cultural identities, livelihoods, and climate change adaptation and \r\nmitigation. {CCP7.2.1; CCP7.2.2; Box CCP7.2; Table CCP7.2}"


id: 4b779b5a08b62fdf0f1824c15738c592
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10527
content:
"Building resilience of tropical forests to climate change relies \r\non adaptation in combination with reduction of direct and \r\nunderlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation (high \r\nconfidence). Tropical deforestation is largely driven by agriculture, \r\nboth from subsistence farming and industrial agriculture (e.g., oil \r\npalm, timber plantations, soybeans, livestock) (high confidence). While \r\npoverty and population growth combined with poor governance often \r\nfuel subsistence agriculture (high confidence), industrial agriculture is \r\noften driven by international market forces for commodities and large\u0002scale land acquisitions (high confidence). {CCP7.2.3}"


id: 3878a530db232c3655eb51a39cc7ebcf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7147
content:
"Climate change affects tropical forests through warming and \r\nincreased occurrence of extreme events such as droughts and \r\nheatwaves, as well as more frequent fires, which increase tree \r\nmortality and reduce tree growth, limiting the ability of forests \r\nto regenerate (high confidence). Climate change is altering the \r\nstructure and species composition of tropical tree communities (high \r\nconfidence), including transitions from moist to drier forest in regions \r\nsuch as the Amazon (high confidence), and movement of species from \r\nlower to higher elevations (high confidence). Despite CO2 fertilisation, \r\nongoing climate change has weakened the carbon sink potential of \r\ntropical forests in Amazonia and, to a lesser extent, in Africa and Asia \r\n(medium confidence). {CCP7.2.3; CCP7.3}"


id: 7c747aa85f8d7fe1f520a47d961e11c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19097
content:
"Governance responses to addressing the direct and underlying \r\ndrivers of deforestation have been inadequate to reduce \r\npressures, yet the urgency of tackling drivers of forest loss \r\nand degradation is increasing as climate impacts on forests \r\nand ecosystems increase (high confidence). Transformative levers \r\ntowards improving environmental governance and resilience of tropical \r\nforests include: incentivising and building capacity for environmental \r\nresponsibility and discontinuing harmful subsidies and disincentives; \r\nreforming segmented decision-making to promote integration across \r\nsectors and jurisdictions; pursuing pre-emptive and precautionary \r\nactions; managing for resilient social and ecological systems in the \r\nface of uncertainty and complexity; strengthening environmental laws \r\nand policies and their implementation; acknowledging land tenure and \r\nrights; and inclusive stakeholder participation (medium confidence). \r\n{CCP7.6}"


id: c016e4543ce4a3dcd667c21c401010e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31085
content:
"Large-scale tropical deforestation affects regional to \r\ncontinental scale climates with significant impacts on forest \r\nresilience (high confidence). Deforestation generally reduces \r\nrainfall and enhances temperatures, with effects depending on scales \r\n(high confidence), while often increasing surface runoff (medium \r\nconfidence). Continued deforestation-driven landscape drying and \r\nfragmentation will aggravate fire risk and reduce forest resilience, \r\nleading to degradation or savannisation of the tropical forest biomes, \r\nin particular in combination with climate change (high confidence). \r\n{CCP7.3.6}"


id: 9c2678a0950140d2007a9ca586431aea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24729
content:
"Implementing sustainable management strategies can improve \r\nthe ability of tropical forest ecosystems to adapt to climate \r\nchange (high confidence), and the benefits of adaptation \r\ninterventions often outweigh the costs (medium confidence).\r\nAdaptation of tropical forests to climate change provides an \r\nopportunity for tropical countries to develop forest policies that create \r\nincentives for environmental services such as carbon storage and \r\nbiodiversity refugia. Forest restoration using a diverse mix of native \r\nspecies can help rebuild the climate resilience of tropical forests, but \r\nis best implemented alongside other sustainable forest management \r\nstrategies and adaptation interventions (high confidence). {CCP7.5; \r\nBox CCP7.1}"


id: ec7c190275e9255dafaf20a863b5da9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38969
content:
"the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to the impacts of \r\nclimate change. On the other, forest protection and sustainable forest \r\nmanagement result in higher resilience of the ecosystem against \r\nclimate impacts. This framing illustrates both the complexity and scale \r\nof the challenge and provides opportunities to reduce impacts at \r\ndifferent scales by eliminating the underlying drivers, both climate and \r\nnon-climate related, through policies and measures at global, national \r\nand subnational levels, involving state and non-state actors alike."


id: 428c0bf12ed53cbb82d3d01b04124a63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8902
content:
"With climate change-related drivers becoming increasingly important \r\nin the future, changes to tropical forests will most likely2\r\n be aggravated \r\noverall, although some tropical forests may temporarily benefit, \r\nphysiologically, from higher temperatures and changes in precipitation \r\npatterns. To the degree to which forests are affected by climate change \r\nand other drivers, their resilience against these stressors is diminishing \r\nleading to a reduction in the regulating, supporting, provisioning and \r\ncultural ecosystem services they provide (Alroy, 2017; Cadman et al., \r\n2017; Portner et al., 2021) (Chapter 2) (high confidence). This, in turn, \r\nis affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people who depend \r\non forests and their products, in particular forest dwelling communities, \r\nbut also, via the teleconnections between forests and surrounding areas \r\nof influence, in socio-ecological systems outside the forests themselves."


id: 8ddda57755196e0d3d1faf29c8ab9366
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22149
content:
"In the most recent Global Ecological Zones map produced by the \r\nFood and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the year 2010, tropical \r\nvegetation has been defined as encompassing regions which are frost\u0002free during all months in the year (FAO, 2012). Further, the tropical \r\nvegetation has been sub-classified into tropical rainforest, tropical \r\nmoist forest, tropical dry forest, tropical shrubland, tropical desert \r\nand tropical mountain systems based on climate in combination with \r\nvegetation physiognomy and orographic zone (Table SMCCP7.1). IPCC \r\nhas used the basic FAO classification in its National Greenhouse Gas \r\nInventories Guidelines (IPCC, 2019a)."


id: 5deb5ec2da73e594a4001385751dad9b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13823
content:
"While strong mitigation efforts are fundamental to minimising future \r\nclimate impacts on forests, forest management can be improved in \r\nmany places in support of enhancing the resilience of tropical forests, \r\noften with significant co-benefits for carbon storage, biodiversity, \r\nfood security and ecosystem services (high confidence). Sustainable \r\nmanagement practices allow forests to be utilised, frequently with \r\nequally high or even higher productivity levels, while keeping their core \r\nfunctions intact. While there are numerous approaches to managing \r\nforests and forest landscapes sustainably, an element that appears \r\nto be critical is property rights and tenure arrangements allowing \r\nstewards of the land, including Indigenous Peoples, securing long\u0002term access and utilisation of forest resources (medium confidence) \r\n(Rahman and Alam, 2016; Naughton-Treves, 2014)."


id: 1dacb49f57b8e1aab9c40e9b479a2597
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2405
content:
"Since the FAO ecological zones represent potential biome extents, \r\nthe present area under forest is assessed using the European Space \r\nAgency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover data set (ESA, 2017). \r\nThe ESA data set provides a direct mapping to IPCC land categories \r\n(e.g., 'forest'), allowing for standardised and consistent reporting of \r\nexisting forest and forest gain/loss in each ecological zone. The most \r\nextensive tropical ecological zone is the tropical rainforest (1459 \r\nMha or about 25% of all tropical ecological zones), followed by \r\ntropical desert (which is not further considered here), tropical moist "


id: eb7194eeb51a32df364347aed9cb7865
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38776
content:
"Figure  CCP7.1 illustrates the interconnections of climate risks and \r\nnon-climate drivers facing tropical forests. On the one hand, the rates \r\nand extent of deforestation and forest degradation result in loss of \r\necosystem services, biodiversity and human well-being and enhance "


id: f63aa5769ec9af7e7fccc3d983a08712
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40682
content:
"Tropical forests are indisputably the areas with highest biological \r\ndiversity on Earth, both in absolute and density (species per area) \r\nterms (Plotkin et  al., 2000). Estimates account that tropical forests \r\nharbour half or even more of world's biodiversity (Kier et  al., 2009; \r\nJenkins et al., 2013), even though this figure is highly uncertain owing \r\nto varying estimates of undescribed species (Mora et al., 2011). For \r\nexample, it is estimated that there are at least 40,000, but possibly \r\nmore than 53,000 tree species in tropical forests (Slik et al., 2015). A \r\nvast majority of this biodiversity and Indigenous knowledge and local \r\nknowledge associated with its use remains poorly explored, presenting \r\na vast unlocked genetic reserve at risk of loss, although many of \r\ntoday's important medicines, foods and ecosystem products originate \r\nfrom tropical forests (Kouznetsov and Amado Torres, 2008; Calderon\r\net al., 2009, Maia and Mourao, 2016)."


id: 31d352174d1c318f04ebd83dd3daf29b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6016
content:
"Figure CCP7.2 |  Colours represent tropical ecological zones as defined by the FAO (FAO, 2012). Areas classified as 'forest' in the 2020 ESA Land Cover CCI Product \r\n(ESA, 2017) are overlaid in grey."


id: 1db934c5702f20a00c305584f831f11f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2415
content:
"Table CCP7.1 |  Areas in tropical ecological zones as defined by the FAO (FAO, 2012). 1\r\nExisting forest represents areas classified as 'forest' in the 2020 ESA Land Cover CCI Product \r\n(ESA, 2017). All units are in million hectares, except where indicated."


id: e42222de6684c9460083baed91d0a198
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
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vector_id: 37438
content:
"(Pounds et al., 2006)--but for whole communities (Esquivel-Muelbert\r\net al., 2019), and even entire tropical forest ecoregions (Lapola et al., \r\n2018)."


id: 9875b9d1a80e84fc6eaef58fdeb0e9fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24035
content:
"More than 420 million ha of forest were lost globally in the 1990-\r\n2020 period because of deforestation, and more than 90% of that loss \r\ntook place in tropical areas (FAO, 2020). For the 2015-2020 period, \r\nthe tropical deforestation rate decreased compared with 2010-2015, \r\nbeing estimated at 10.2 Mha yr-1 (FAO, 2020). But reforestation and \r\nafforestation rates have also decreased, resulting in a tropical forests \r\nnet loss rate of 7.3 Mha yr-1 in the 2015-2020 period. Overall, the net \r\nloss rate has slightly decreased (-4%) since 1990 (high confidence). "


id: 28bab30090a950bddf403b9925503109
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4381
content:
"Table CCP7.2 |  Trends in net tropical forest loss, reforestation and expansion rates (1000 ha yr-1) from 2010-2015 and 2015-2020 periods by regions."


id: adc5480b31aff1abbaa0072ac2bb4ca7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"and institutional, or cultural factors, which typically form complex \r\ninteractions and act at multiple scales, frequently without any direct \r\nconnection to the areas of forest loss (Geist and Lambin, 2002)."


id: f676ed6fe4aff481f65f99b23c2651c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40732
content:
"However, a particularly high upward trend is observed in Central \r\nAmerica and the Caribbean, while a small increase (2%) is observed \r\nin the tropical zone of Africa, during the periods from 2010-2015 to \r\n2015-2020 (Table CPP7.2)."


id: 6d8a55b914de0522537c782ea94158bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16535
content:
"Agriculture is by far the largest direct driver of tropical deforestation, \r\nwith great differences between commercial and subsistence farming \r\nand large variation across regions (Figure  CCP7.3). Over 80% of \r\ntropical deforestation between 2000 and 2010 was caused by \r\nagriculture, proportionally ranging from ca. 75% in Africa and Asia to \r\nca. 95% in the Americas (FAO and UNEP, 2020), but both the scale of \r\ndeforestation and the relative contribution of different drivers have \r\nchanged considerably over time (high confidence) (Hosonuma et al., \r\n2012; Curtis et al., 2018; Seymour and Harris, 2019; FAO and UNEP, \r\n2020)."


id: 581e74ea5ce9f28e02cf6802381e9658
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12759
content:
"Forest degradation is more difficult to track, but can have large \r\nnegative effects on carbon storage, provision of ecosystem services, \r\nand biodiversity (Griscom et al., 2017; Houghton and Nassikas, 2017). \r\nA recent analysis suggests that forest degradation is increasing and is \r\nnow surpassing deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon (Aparecido \r\nTrondoli Matricardi et al., 2020). As with deforestation, drivers of forest \r\ndegradation differ by region, such that timber extraction was by far the \r\nmost important degradation driver in Latin America and Asia, whereas \r\nin Africa wood fuel consumption contributed to about half of forest \r\ndegradation between 2000 and 2010 (Hosonuma et al., 2012)."


id: 6ad3992daf451ddb0106f5d171d004f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16077
content:
"Though not as visible as direct drivers, indirect or underlying causes \r\ncan greatly influence direct drivers, and must be addressed to reduce \r\npressures on forests (high confidence) (e.g., FAO, 2016b; Fehlenberg\r\net  al., 2017; Pendrill et  al., 2019b; Bos et  al., 2020; Junquera et  al., \r\n2020; Ken et  al., 2020; Kissinger, 2020; Siqueira-Gay et  al., 2020; \r\nHoang and Kanemoto, 2021). Next to population growth, poverty and \r\ninsecure land tenure (Ariti et  al., 2015; Arevalo, 2016; FAO, 2016a; \r\nKen et al., 2020; Siqueira-Gay et al., 2020; Verma et al., 2021), many \r\ndeveloping tropical countries identify weak forest sector governance \r\nand institutions, lack of cross-sectoral coordination, and illegal activity \r\n(related to weak enforcement) as critical underlying drivers (FAO, \r\n2016a; Ken et al., 2020; Kissinger, 2020) [CCP7.6]."


id: 3f90f1e7bd55a53c947c4732a34eabf4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8371
content:
"Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation can be distinguished \r\nbetween proximate (i.e., direct) and underlying (i.e., indirect). Direct \r\ndrivers, such as agriculture (including crops, livestock and plantation \r\nforestry), infrastructure development (which often provides access to \r\nintact forests and catalyses deforestation) or timber extraction, are \r\nplace-based and visible. They are influenced by underlying driving \r\nforces, such as demographic, economic, technological, political "


id: 67153a677da3b6f90ba0324d54a541db
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15405
content:
"Figure CCP7.3 |  Primary drivers of tropical forest cover loss for the period 2001-2015. Darker colour intensity indicates greater total quantity of forest cover loss. \r\nWhile some tropical forest cover loss is temporary, a large portion is related to deforestation. Source: Curtis et al. (2018). Cropped figure reprinted with permission from AAAS."


id: fb6bcacacad1cdb4c5a5ac94448a43e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41609
content:
"interactions and community responses, ecohydrology, risk of fire and \r\nrelated impacts, soil nutrient and microbe-plant interactions. Climate \r\nchange is expected to increase temperatures across the tropics, with \r\nattendant variability in rainfall, and more extreme events such as \r\nintense storms, droughts and wildfires (Zelazowski et al., 2011; Malhi\r\net  al., 2014; Brando et  al., 2019). This could be expected to have \r\nstructural and functional impacts on tropical forest biomes (Malhi\r\net  al., 2014; Adams et  al., 2017). This section looks at responses of \r\ntropical trees and forests to current and future climate-change related \r\npressures, focusing on physiological responses including growth, \r\nmortality and regeneration, fire risk and ecological vulnerability, as \r\nwell as on climate effects of tropical forest loss."


id: 5bf3a4950ed450684c9d947dc63a1324
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13442
content:
"With rising temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide, possibly \r\naccompanied by greater variability in soil moisture availability, a key \r\nquestion is how tropical forest trees respond physiologically (especially \r\nphotosynthesis and respiration which determine net growth rates) and \r\nhow well they can acclimate (i.e., able to adapt) to climate change \r\n(Dusenge et  al., 2019). Key climate factors influencing tree growth \r\non pan-tropical forests are precipitation, solar radiation, temperature \r\namplitude and relative soil moisture (Wagner et al., 2014)."


id: e7804615428699229ee24583678087f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38032
content:
"Other key components in the forest system are plant-microbe-soil \r\nnutrient interactions, which play major roles in carbon cycling and \r\nplant photosynthetic response to increased atmospheric CO2 and \r\nwarming (Zhang et al., 2014; Singh and Singh, 2015; Du et al., 2019). \r\nPhosphorus is generally a limiting factor in tropical forest soils, though \r\nthis may be species-specific (Ellsworth et  al., 2017; Turner et  al., \r\n2018). Mycorrhizal fungi (both arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal) play \r\nmajor roles in water acquisition of host plant and their responses to \r\ndrought in dry tropical forest (Lehto and Zwiazek, 2011) as well as in \r\nthe capture and transfer of nutrients, especially nitrogen (which may \r\notherwise become limiting), to host plants. Climate change factors can \r\nthus be expected to alter the nature of soil-plant interactions with \r\nconsequences for the species composition and biodiversity of tropical \r\necosystems (Pugnaire et al., 2019; Terrer et al., 2019)"


id: 20841f62f63385a53a21e038c9697cc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2943
content:
"Factors other than solely climate also interact in enhancing the \r\ndanger of tropical forest fires. For instance, the extent of burned area \r\nof rainforests in Borneo has shown that subsurface hydrology, (i.e., \r\nhydrological drought), interacts with meteorological drought and, \r\nhence, fires have become more intense in recent decades following the \r\nprogressive desiccation of the island over the past century (Taufik et al., \r\n2017). Bornean forest fire risk also increased through the interaction \r\nof drought with land use conversion for logging, oil palm and tree \r\nplantations, and human settlements (Sloan et  al., 2017). Similarly, \r\nsimulations of future fire risks in the Amazon show that extensive \r\nland use change under the RCP 8.5 scenario results in 4- to 28-fold \r\nenhanced area of forest burned by fire by 2080-2100, as compared \r\nwith 1990-2010, whereas in an RCP 4.5 scenario, the area burned \r\nwould be enhanced by 0.9- to 5.4-fold (Le Page et al., 2017)."


id: e1a0eaba170616db74a0f4d30162d945
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36965
content:
"Impacts of climate change on tropical forest cover seem to correlate \r\nwith climatic zone. Natural selection of drought tolerant species \r\nis observed in tropical dry forests under a prolonged water deficit \r\nenvironment (Stan and Sanchez-Azofeifa, 2019). Tropical montane \r\nforests are highly sensitive to warming and associated changes in \r\ncloud cover and moisture, with evidence that such forests are already "


id: 54fadb6a4d744f744479337ab3b32777
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12222
content:
"being impacted through 'browning' (loss of biomass) from increased \r\nwarming since the 1990s (Krishnaswamy et al., 2014)."


id: 8a9a854617abd478f2a441b4fabe2832
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21556
content:
"Climate change projections indicate increased warming and changes \r\nin rainfall patterns in the tropical region as elsewhere globally (IPCC, \r\n2021, AR6 WGI). These would have impacts on carbon stocks (Mitchard, \r\n2018; Hubau et al., 2020), water availability (Tamoffo et al., 2019), and \r\nstructure and diversity (Malhi et al., 2014; McDowell et al., 2020) in \r\ntropical forests, amplified by deforestation (CCP7.3.6)."


id: 97c29e2bc7fe635756708d6f7cacd1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23916
content:
"(Boers et al., 2017). Other effects of forest degradation include loss \r\nof ecosystem services, biodiversity, carbon storage and Indigenous \r\nculture (Watson et al., 2018; Strassburg et al., 2019; Gatti et al., 2021), \r\nas well as potentially reduced hydropower capacity and agricultural \r\nproduction (Sumila et  al., 2017), and increases in tropical diseases \r\n(Husnina et al., 2019)."


id: f27d238f2fd89edcb86919c326970d93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40055
content:
"Since AR5, there has been meaningful advancement in understanding \r\nthe climate effects of deforestation and concomitant changes in forest \r\necosystem resilience. The IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and \r\nLand (Jia et al., 2019) and IPCC AR6 WGI (Douville et al., 2021) both \r\ndescribe significant climate-related changes resulting from tropical \r\ndeforestation (high confidence)."


id: 9fa575a5528067aaecae6e4f9ce13854
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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content:
"The dearth of data for tropical forest regions other than the Amazon \r\nmakes assessments of deforestation-related changes in temperature, \r\nprecipitation and streamflow difficult (high confidence), and hampers \r\nestimates of tropical forest ecosystem health, biodiversity loss and \r\nvulnerability to current and future climatic and other pressures (high \r\nconfidence). There is, hence, a strong need for increased investment in \r\nrelevant data and research to narrow the knowledge gaps (Davison\r\net  al., 2021). Nonetheless, conclusions based on a newly developed \r\ntropical vulnerability index synthesising remotely sensed land use and \r\nclimate information indicate that forests in the Americas are already \r\nreaching critical levels to multiple stressors, while forests in Asia reveal \r\nvulnerability primarily to land-use change and African forests still show \r\nrelative resilience to climate change (Saatchi et al., 2021)."


id: b28813996cb48f25ae257729a1f6500a
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"Deforestation generally reduces rainfall and enhances temperatures \r\nand landscape dryness; effects that increase with the scale of forest \r\nloss, whereas reforestation and afforestation generally reverses these \r\neffects (high confidence) (Lawrence and Vandecar, 2015; Alkama and \r\nCescatti, 2016; Khanna et al., 2017; Jia et al., 2019; Staal et al., 2020; \r\nDouville et  al., 2021; Hofmann et  al., 2021; Leite-Filho et  al., 2021). \r\nThere is also medium evidence from observations and modelling that \r\ndeforestation enhances surface runoff (Douville et al., 2021). Whereas \r\nquantitative information is much more limited for other tropical regions, \r\npast deforestation in the Amazon has led to a small reduction in rainfall \r\nof -2.3% to -1.3%, shortening and delay of the wet season, and an \r\nestimated 4% increase in dryness (Leite-Filho et al., 2020; Staal et al., \r\n2020; Douville et al., 2021)."


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"Modelling studies estimate that large-scale tropical deforestation will \r\ncontribute to average warming of the deforested areas with +0.61 +- \r\n0.48degC and will lead to large changes in diurnal temperature ranges \r\nowing to a reduction of nocturnal cooling (medium confidence) (Jia\r\net  al., 2019). Large-scale deforestation will also strongly decrease \r\naverage regional precipitation and evapotranspiration and further \r\ndelay the onset of the wet season, enhancing the chance of dry spells \r\nand intensifying dry seasons, but the magnitude of the decline depends \r\non the scale and type of land-cover change (high confidence) (Zemp\r\net al., 2017; Jia et al., 2019; Douville et al., 2021; Gatti et al., 2021)."


id: bed32e1843178075b1b5eb939352ea02
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"Around 800 million people live in or in the immediate vicinity of tropical \r\nforests (Keenan, 2015). Short-term impacts of climate change on \r\nbiodiversity will exacerbate the inequalities affecting those livelihoods \r\nwhich heavily rely on forests (Portner et al., 2021)."


id: ad7dc9d9ff9c62f24079ac1827f0d14d
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"Livelihoods, gender, land-use change and dependency on forest \r\nresources for food, fuel, housing and other needs have been identified \r\nas key elements of vulnerability in Indigenous Peoples and rural \r\ncommunities in Africa and South America (high confidence) (Nkem \r\net  al., 2013; Field et  al., 2014; Newton et  al., 2016; Pearse, 2017; \r\nIPBES, 2018; Portner et al., 2021). Socioeconomic vulnerability varies \r\ndepending on the level of dependency of forest food consumption \r\n(Rowland et al., 2017), livelihood strategies and settlement patterns. \r\nIn Cameroon (Nkem et  al., 2013), nomadic hunter-gatherers and \r\nsedentary communities showed differences in their vulnerability, \r\ndriven by their preferences in forest settlement locations for farming, \r\nhunting, fishing, gathering, trapping and maintaining livestock."


id: f32365bde049fd2789712b23bc27e410
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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"Continued forest landscape drying and fragmentation in connection \r\nwith deforestation may also enhance surface flow variability (Farinosi\r\net al., 2019; Souza et al., 2019) and will aggravate the risk of forest \r\ndieback (Zemp et  al., 2017), elevate forest flammability (Alencar\r\net  al., 2015) and increase fire incidence (high confidence) (Aragao\r\net al., 2018; Jia et al., 2019; Silveira et al., 2020; dos Reis et al., 2021), \r\nultimately leading to savannisation of many tropical rainforests (Sales\r\net  al., 2020). However, compositional heterogeneity and diversity of \r\nforest assemblages increases resilience against climate-enhanced \r\nforest degradation (Rejou-Mechain et al., 2021)."


id: e24836eb60fcd7c5ae608cc9d2d3be62
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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"Increasing temperatures, extreme climatic events, drought and fire will \r\naffect the proportion and frequency of forest resources availability. In \r\ncommunities of tropical America, Asia and Africa, social vulnerability \r\nfactors identified include: deforestation pressures for agriculture \r\nexpansion to cope with climate-induced food shortages, conflicts \r\nover access to forest land as a result of uncontrolled fire induced by \r\nhigher drought frequency and severity, the availability of wild game, \r\nthe work capacity, and the time consumed in work and gender-based \r\ndifferences (Blaser et al, 2011; Bele et al., 2013; IPCC, 2014). Although \r\nthe size and quality of harvest in crops and non-timber forest products \r\n(NTFPs) will be affected, the literature reports the use of NTFPs, \r\nhunting and fishing is less sensitive to climate change, and relevant \r\nfor household incomes (Bele et al., 2013; Djoudi et al., 2013; Newton "


id: ba6db3e802c075cd20b52e52b9f0b01d
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"For the Amazon, deforestation (ca. 40% of the region) in combination \r\nwith climate change will raise the prospect of passing a tipping point \r\nleading to large-scale savannisation of the rainforest biome, but \r\nuncertainty remains whether this will take place in the 21st century \r\n(Nobre et al., 2016; Jia et al., 2019; Douville et al., 2021). However, \r\nconsidering that the Amazon has already lost ca. 20% of its forests \r\n(Nobre et al., 2016), crossing the tipping point may not only create \r\nsavannas of the deforested parts but may also result in precipitation \r\nreductions of 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon due \r\nto a breakdown of the South American monsoonal circulation and the \r\nsubsequent western cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration "


id: 5a4e65d310e89a5d95feee048c486e67
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"et al., 2016; Onyekuru and Marchant, 2016). Data from tropical forests \r\ndocument the contribution of NTFPs to local livelihoods (Issaka, \r\n2018), with well-established NTFPs such as Brazil nut (Bertholletia \r\nexcelsa), rattan (Calamus and Daemonorops species), rubber (Hevea\r\nspecies) and acai (Euterpe oleracea) showing promise for sustainable \r\nharvesting strategies which could reduce socioeconomic vulnerability \r\n(Blaser et al., 2021)."


id: ebcb53acfad22a691c8d97c829e606cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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"CBA is related with concepts such as community and adaptive collaborative forest management. These approaches acknowledge the \r\nimportance of cultural and socioeconomic ties between communities and forests, along with community's authority and responsibility for \r\nforest sustainable management (Ajani, 2013; Ellis et al., 2015; Torres et al., 2015)."


id: 1fc5927aa1566ad8dad563067b223e68
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"Local forest and Indigenous forest management systems have developed over long time periods, generating social practices and \r\ninstitutions that have supported livelihoods and cultures for generations (high confidence) (Seppala, 2009; Martin et al., 2010; Parrotta \r\nand Agnoletti, 2012; Camico et al., 2021). Archaeological evidence shows that humans have manipulated tropical forests for at least \r\n45,000 years (high confidence). Indigenous Peoples usually consider themselves as parts of socio-ecosystems, protecting the forest by \r\nmaintaining healthy socio-ecological relationships and successfully adapting to environmental change (Speranza et al., 2010; Swiderska\r\net al., 2011; Parrotta and Agnoletti, 2012; Uprety et al., 2012; Mistry et al., 2016; Roberts et al., 2017) [AR5 WGII Setion 12.3.2 (Adger \r\net al. 2014)]."


id: b9a438c17e04839f7cd255883df1e75
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"CBA ensures community engagement in bottom-up management and adaptation approaches (Simane and Zaitchik, 2014; Keenan, \r\n2015). IK, LK and CBA can enhance adaptation in many ways, including through knowledge generation, ecosystem monitoring, climate \r\nforecasting, increased resilience and response to climate extremes and slow-onset events (Speranza et al., 2010) [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.3 \r\n(Adger et al. 2014); SRCCL Section 4.8.2 (Olsson et al. 2019)] ] (Figure Box CCP7.1.1)."


id: af3e9b8536372b58610ce50f3a90130b
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"Finally, vulnerability and adaptive capacity have a historical and geopolitical context, conditioned by value systems and development \r\nmodels. Forest management strategies must take into account the wider picture if they seek to be not just temporally effective (at best), \r\nbut transformative and sustainable over time (high confidence) (Chung Tiam Fook, 2015; Chanza and De Wit, 2016)."


id: c6a9622f7c482bc3cbb71489fe7e39f0
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"(a) Obstacles and barriers ranked by the number of references in which \r\nthey were identified (one reference can identify more than one barrier, so \r\nnumbers of references by barrier are not additive)."


id: ba5a81edb35da143f3662bcc8c8877c0
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"(b) Distribution of cases studies according to approach (IK and LK, CBA or \r\na combination of both). One reference can include one or more case studies. \r\nSee countries included by continent and references in the Supplementary \r\nMaterial (SMCCP7.2)."


id: bf904c4569e2a35b5d1ccfd85ce3db9a
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"Degradation). For nations outside of the tropics, there is a need to \r\nregulate the global drivers of forest loss, such as the consumption \r\nof agricultural commodities and of non-sustainable forest products \r\n(including timber) (CCP7.3; Henders et  al., 2015 Nolte et  al., 2017, \r\nPendrill et al., 2019)."


id: 4d314a7e636f5a5785fba52ae9faaaae
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"At a landscape scale, increasing forest cover and maintaining \r\nbiodiversity friendly land-use outside forests increases ecosystem \r\nresilience to climate change (and other disturbances) and allows for \r\nclimate-driven species migration, for example, 'protect' in Table CCP7.3 \r\n(Schmitz et al., 2015; Aguirre and Sukumar, 2016). Ensuring forested \r\nareas are large and/or interconnected including the use of specific \r\nclimate refugia and climate corridors is recommended for climate \r\nadaptation (high confidence) (Schmitz et al., 2015; Settele et al., 2015; \r\nSimmons et  al., 2018; Portner et  al., 2021). For habitats or species \r\npushed to the edge of their range, area-based conservation needs to \r\ntake account of the future climate space and facilitate movement of \r\nspecies through connectivity or assisted migration (Seppala, 2009; "


id: b492226a793705f0a924c71104f50754
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
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"Table CCP7.3 |  Overview of adaptation strategies for tropical forests. This table includes key policy frameworks and common management approaches with potential for adapting \r\nnative forests to increased disturbance from climate hazards. Details on each management approach and the associated literature are given in Table CCP7.4: Costs and Benefits of \r\nAdaptation Options in Tropical Forests."


id: fb1fdb86cb9b31aef4e405212ca8cde8
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"Schmitz et  al., 2015; Portner et  al., 2021). Maintaining functioning \r\nforest ecosystems is vital due to biophysical, biological (biodiversity\u0002driven) and socioeconomic interactions that contribute to ecosystem \r\nresilience (Pielke Sr et  al., 2011; Malhi et  al., 2014; Lawrence and \r\nVandecar, 2015; Alkama and Cescatti, 2016; Sakschewski et al., 2016). \r\nProtecting forested areas can be achieved through vertical integration \r\nof policies at national, subnational and local levels and effective \r\nstakeholder empowerment (Meijer, 2015). Community-based and \r\necosystem-based adaptation approaches provide an overall strategy \r\nto help achieve these goals [Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter \r\n2] (Locatelli et al., 2010; Cerullo and Edwards, 2019). In addition to \r\nconservation of tropical forests, restoration and afforestation can be \r\neffective climate adaptation measures (e.g., 'restore' in Table CCP7.3) "


id: 18b4326daf366cea665ab1f857e639fd
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"(Arora and Montenegro, 2011; Perugini et  al., 2017). The technical \r\nrequirements for such adaptation measures are similar to those \r\nrequired for forest landscape restoration (Mansourian and Vallauri, \r\n2005; Mansourian et al., 2017; Shimamoto et al., 2018; Philipson et al., \r\n2020). Agricultural intensification has been proposed as one method \r\nto reduce pressure on remaining forested land, although the overall \r\ncarbon impact of such approaches must be considered (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 6 in SRCCL, Shukla et al., 2019; Cerri et al., 2018; Kubitza et al., \r\n2018)."


id: fa48e760c26c74e31ea39893e6b20797
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"At the forest community level, adaptation options aim to protect \r\nthe forest microenvironment and retain biodiversity through forest \r\nmanagement (e.g., 'manage' in Table  CCP7.3) (Keenan, 2015; Jactel"


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"Figure CCP7.5 |  Framework to assess adaptation response options in tropical forests by adopting a landscape perspective as determined by types of forests \r\nand tree cover across different tenure regimes. HCVA, high conservation value areas; HCSA, high carbon stock areas; IPLC, Indigenous Peoples and local communities. The \r\ninformation supporting this figure originates from an extensive literature review that is included in this section, Table CCP7.4. The assessment of confidence levels is based on the \r\njudgement of the authors based on the reviewed literature and follows IPBES guidelines."


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"different stakeholders (Chan et al., 2016; Pascual et al., 2017). Similarly, \r\nbenefits also include the social and environmental benefits that result \r\nfrom adaptation options over extended time horizons. Economic costs \r\nand benefit-cost ratios suggest the short-term economic potential \r\nof different options, but responsibly designed adaptation measures \r\ninvolving a combination of different response options and embracing \r\na long-time horizon have the potential to provide significant social and \r\nclimate benefits over the coming 50 years or more."


id: 760b231d2dc1598b0fc74eabb9a552ad
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"The cost of implementing adaptation options varies widely and will \r\nchange based on the location, time horizon and who bears the cost. \r\nAs a result, most existing estimates are offered in broad ranges that \r\ninclude only partial cost estimates. Here we group the adaptation \r\ncosts into three categories: low- (<USD 1000 ha-1), medium- (between \r\nUSD 1000 ha-1 and USD 5000 ha-1) and high-cost options (>USD \r\n5000 ha-1)."


id: f62aeb9a004e6b4d28f198bcced145c3
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"While economic costs constitute an important factor in determining \r\nthe feasibility of options, there are other factors that have an important \r\ninfluence on the viability of the options including opportunity costs, \r\ntransaction costs and social feasibility, which are not included in \r\nthis analysis. For example, options such as recognition of rights for \r\nIndigenous Peoples and local communities can be a low-cost option \r\nbut often face political opposition (RRI, 2021), including from some \r\nconservation organisations; fire prevention and management require \r\npolitical coordination across multiple governance levels (Fonseca\u0002Morello et al., 2017); and sustainable forest management can be seen "


id: 1f16d88d1a9732c7777f197439f19400
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"This assessment considers the economic costs and benefits of 10 \r\nresponse options in their contribution to adaptation of tropical forests \r\nto climate change impacts but also includes non-market costs that are \r\nmore difficult to quantify (e.g., cultural values), which are borne by "


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"as a less attractive option when compared with other more profitable \r\nland uses (Kothke, 2014). Table  CCP7.4 offers a more detailed \r\nassessment of the costs included, along with a reference to the costs \r\nfor society."


id: e596bcf7a2c459a62245a293498d68ef
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"Seddon et al., 2020; Baste et al., 2021). However, implementation of \r\nadaptation actions can be economically unviable if the benefits accrue \r\nover longer periods of time because development banks apply much \r\nhigher discount rates to low income countries than the standard \r\nrates (Watkiss, 2015). Achieving conditions that do not disincentivise \r\nagainst, and rather encourage investments in nature-based solutions \r\nto protect, sustainably manage or restore tropical forest landscapes \r\nis therefore critical to enhancing their implementation (UNEP, 2021)."


id: 78d7b85dd0342a635e80abb43c7ee2b5
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"Estimates of economic benefits across options tend to vary greatly, \r\nlargely based on the scale of operations, and the market and \r\ninstitutional contexts in which they are implemented. The longer-term \r\nnon-monetary benefits tend to be larger than has been acknowledged \r\nin the past (Chan et  al., 2016; Pascual et  al., 2017; UNEP, 2021). \r\nThe shorter-term horizon of the economic benefits of adaptation \r\noptions suggest that benefit-cost ratios of investments are higher \r\nin more biodiverse agroforestry systems in comparison with simpler \r\nones (Miccolis et  al., 2016), and agroforestry system benefits are \r\ncomparatively higher compared with commercial tree planting \r\ndepending on the species (Table CCP7.4; Nello et al., 2019)."


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"In addition, implementation of response options should consider \r\nequity aspects to ensure that the costs and benefits of actions within a \r\nlandscape are equitably distributed among public institutions, private \r\nenterprise and civil society (Verdone, 2015). Strategic approaches to \r\nrestoring ecosystems can increase conservation gains and reduce \r\ncosts (Shimamoto et al., 2018; Strassburg et al., 2019). Cost-effective \r\nsolutions that consider multiple costs and benefits need a 'compromise \r\nsolution' between short- and long-term social and economic gains. \r\nPursuing spatial allocations for adaptation options has the potential \r\nto deliver greater benefits at lower costs, therefore aligning aims for \r\ntropical forest adaptation, species conservation and climate mitigation \r\ntargets with the interests of farmers under short and long time horizons \r\n(Beatty et al., 2018)."


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"All the objectives here support not only a large number of local people \r\nin fulfilling their livelihoods, but often provide services to distant urban \r\npopulations as well. The benefits differ according to which of the four \r\nforest landscape management objectives is prioritised (Table CCP7.4):"


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"Private sector commitments to reduce deforestation impacts in their \r\ncommodity supply chains are growing, but evidence of impact is \r\nslim and inconclusive (Garrett et al., 2019; NYDF, 2019). Half of the "


id: 1f2d260b87da2a07676943ddf465550a
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"While adaptation costs and benefits of response options differ, their \r\nbenefit-to-cost ratios are almost always positive, particularly in \r\nthe longer term (Muller and Sukhdev, 2018; Chausson et  al., 2020; "


id: 4f28c96178f71cf945d3f6f005cbcbb3
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"While the first five levers are relevant to environmental governance \r\nmore broadly, the exploration of these levers in Table CCP7.5 is more \r\nspecific to governance for forest resilience, drawing upon insights \r\nrelated to each transformation lever. Next to the governance solutions \r\nbeing implemented currently, indications of future challenges/\r\nopportunities related to resilience in tropical forests are explored \r\nbased on examples from the recent literature."


id: c7baed3d396b8e61349277914357cbaf
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"biodiversity loss associated with consumption in developed economies \r\noccurs outside their territorial boundaries (Wilting et al., 2017), and \r\ntrends in international trade in land-based production systems are \r\nincreasing, with greatest impacts on tropical forests (Nystrom et al., \r\n2019; Hoang and Kanemoto, 2021). In addition, in some cases the \r\nimpacts of financialisation (e.g., correlation of commodity prices with \r\nstock market dynamics rather than pure demand) are found to be larger \r\nthan those related to timber and agricultural commodity production \r\ndynamics (Girardi, 2015; Ouyang and Zhang, 2020; cross-reference to \r\nChapter 5.13). Such factors present challenges for governance and \r\npolicy responses."


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content:
"The complexity of tackling drivers of forest loss and degradation will \r\nincrease as climate impacts on forests and ecosystems intensify in \r\nthe context of incomplete information and limited understanding of \r\nrisks (Helbing, 2013; Hughes et al., 2013; Springmann et al., 2018; Tu\r\net al., 2019), necessitating novel approaches to forest governance for \r\nresilience (Keenan, 2015; Spathelf et al., 2018). Therefore, governance, \r\ndefined as efforts that seek to influence the relationship between \r\nexisting social processes and governance arrangements by using \r\nregulatory processes, mechanisms and organisations (Agrawal et al., \r\n2018), is a crucial process to convene stakeholders for decisions (FAO, \r\n2018a)."


id: 7d90bfeb6871f528682db56f86be82ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19262
content:
"This section describes seven levers that support transformative \r\nenvironmental governance towards resilience of tropical forests by \r\ntackling the underlying indirect drivers, offering policy solutions and \r\ngovernance challenges and opportunities. The first five build on IPBES \r\n(2019), whereas the remaining two are drawn from the governance \r\nliterature as highly relevant variables specific to the tropical forest \r\ncontext owing to their prominence in the international frameworks \r\ndeveloped over the past 10  years (Table  CCP7.5). Monitoring and \r\nfinance are embedded in multiple levers. The levers include:"


id: a23da760e442eccff9f209c95d270392
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25776
content:
"Table CCP7.5 |  Levers of transformative change to tackle the underlying indirect drivers of forest deterioration for resilience."


id: e09a258448cd3d33cf818ebb3fe5934d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36771
content:
"There is increasing evidence of positive impacts of resilient tropical forests, biodiversity and sustainable forest management in achieving \r\nSDGs, as presented in Table Box CCP7.2.1. However, there is also risk of unintended consequences based on conflicts between the use \r\nof forest-based goods and services, and effects on tropical forest resilience, ecosystem services and biodiversity (Baumgartner, 2019). \r\nFor instance, substitution of fossil fuels and non-renewable resources with bio-based products can lead to deforestation and the loss of \r\nbiodiversity (Carrasco, 2017) (Cross-Working-Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5). Deforestation as a result of increased agricultural \r\nproduction and productivity could hamper efforts in addressing long-term food security, particularly for forest-dependent people (Newton\r\net al., 2016; Section CCP7.2.3). Synergies and trade-offs depend very much on local contexts and are therefore presented in exemplary form."


id: 836c37256f3f2fe0b47e63982c5344d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20256
content:
"IFAD (2016) estimated that there are 640  million people living below the poverty line in rural areas of 43 tropical countries. Poor \r\ncommunities rely on ecosystem services for their subsistence livelihoods, and often they have limited capacity to adapt to change, making \r\nthem more vulnerable to climate change and other forms of changes (Bhatta, 2015). Managing forests sustainably benefits both urban \r\nand rural communities, including provision of food and fibre, and on watershed hydrology and agroforestry production, among others \r\n(Powell et al., 2013; Dawson et al., 2014; Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Mbow et al., 2014) (Table Box CCP7.2.1)."


id: 20cb955f92513ec0d67d483b7e12f1a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2991
content:
"Table Box CCP7.2.1 |  Examples from sustainable tropical forest management (STFM) in achieving SDGs."


id: 3fa5399f214f574b85db5127c7e0ea82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8390
content:
"Global warming, droughts, extreme rainfalls and sea level rise cause significant impacts on tropical forests."


id: 9eccfdd6261c462fa367b18effc64d90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25162
content:
"In addition to climate change, tropical forests are experiencing non-climatic stressors. Conversion of forest into \r\nlarge-scale agriculture land and exploitation of timber and non-timber forest products are increasing pressure and \r\namplifying the impacts of climate change on the remaining areas of tropical forests. These include biodiversity \r\ndecline, increases of fires, large-scale ecosystem transformation (e.g., into savannah in southeastern Amazon) and \r\nincreasing carbon emissions due to deforestation, forest conversion and forest degradation. Further, loss of forest \r\nresources leads to the decline of livelihoods of Indigenous Peoples and local communities. All nations need to \r\ncollaborate to implement collective actions to protect tropical forests."


id: 8f648ac77a5ca3cbe6093f15df08d3aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22439
content:
"Tropical forests are essentially important for the health of planet Earth. Tropical forests in Asia, Africa and South \r\nAmerica regulate carbon, water and chemical cycles, which maintain a healthy climate and nutrient cycles for "


id: 324b02e2973c6b89ad1b7d2a692ca6d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6104
content:
"supporting life. Tropical forests are home to two-thirds of our world's biodiversity, although they cover only about \r\n13% of the land on Earth, but it is not known exactly how many millions of living creatures, such as microorganisms, \r\ninsects, amphibians, snakes, fish, birds, mammals and primates, live in tropical forests."


id: 8f3aa80c3ec10d43e329bb0f4b7912f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22402
content:
"Approximately 1.3 billion people directly depend upon tropical forest resources to survive. Others are indirectly \r\ndependent upon the health and provisioning of ecosystem services and goods from tropical forests. The forests \r\nprovide many kinds of economic products, such as timber, medicines and food, and recreational services, such as \r\nnature trekking, bird and wildlife watching, to mention a few. Indigenous People and other forest-dependent \r\ncommunities have shown extraordinary knowledge on how to manage forest resources to meet their subsistence \r\nneeds without causing forest degradation. This forest culture and wisdom are broken when the rate of forest \r\nextraction changes into unplanned and unsustainable large-scale transformation."


id: 7971f3fc154bb82a9c0684f0f0c397b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18565
content:
"Deforestation and land-use changes in tropical forests cause not only physical and biological changes on flora \r\nand fauna, but also rapid changes in cultures harming forest peoples. A degraded tropical forest is prone and \r\nmore vulnerable to climate change. An increase in temperature in lowlands creates an unfavourable condition \r\nfor optimum growths of many kinds of plant species which also affects several agricultural plants. Coffee farmers, \r\nfor example, are forced to open new forest frontiers in highland areas to meet an optimum temperature for the \r\ngrowth of coffee."


id: bdb7eabd828a4746e2a7d015c20af751
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30639
content:
"Climate change, together with forest fragmentation and deforestation, also harms wildlife. For example, \r\nthe orangutan, an endemic species to tropical peat forests in Kalimantan and Sumatra, is classified as critically \r\nendangered. Many other endemic and unknown species of flora in tropical forests are in the same condition and \r\ncould experience a mass extinction at a more rapid rate than the previous five mass extinctions on Earth. About \r\n1.3 million Indigenous Peoples depending on the natural resources of the tropical forest would suffer from cultural \r\ndisruption and livelihood change due to forest loss."


id: b3b62520236a102a21cae094d8635fd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28862
content:
"To protect tropical forests a collective action of all nations is needed. It requires a global effort to stop deforestation \r\nand the conversion of tropical forests. The role of Indigenous Peoples and local communities as forest keepers must \r\nbe strengthened. Economic incentives for protecting tropical forests, among other strategies, could facilitate \r\ncollective actions towards a sustainable management of tropical forests. Sustainable, effective and just strategies to \r\nincrease the resilience of tropical forests need to consider the complex political, social and economic dynamics \r\ninvolved, including the goals, identity and livelihood priorities of Indigenous Peoples and local communities beyond \r\nnatural resource management. Strategies can benefit from integrating knowledge and know-how from traditional \r\ncultures, fostering transitions towards more sustainable systems."


id: 3e80df723ebbbdfbcefc101fa1b741d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8183
content:
"O'Neill, B., M. van Aalst, Z. Zaiton Ibrahim, L. Berrang Ford, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz, K. Frieler, M. Garschagen, \r\nA. Magnan, G. Midgley, A. Mirzabaev, A. Thomas, and R.Warren, 2022: Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions. In: Climate \r\nChange 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of \r\nthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, \r\nA. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, \r\nUK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2411-2538, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.025."


id: 6484aea9c9caa8f4857d8234a21eabc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14959
content:
"borne diseases is largely lacking. Overall, there is extensive \r\nobservational evidence that extreme ambient temperatures increase \r\nhuman mortality (high confidence) and that the occurrence of water\u0002and vector-borne diseases is sensitive to weather conditions (high \r\nconfidence). {16.2.3.5, 16.2.3.6, 16.2.3.7}"


id: 32a794ffb8f8435622b3b9ae78b47d0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6175
content:
"This chapter synthesises observed climate change impacts \r\n(Section 16.2), adaptation-related responses (Section 16.3), limits to \r\nadaptation (Section 16.4), and the key risks identified across sectors \r\nand regions (Section 16.5). We consider how these risks accrue with \r\nincreasing global average temperature, how they depend on future \r\ndevelopment and adaptation efforts and what this implies for the \r\nSustainable Development Goals and the five main Reasons for Concern \r\nabout climate change (Section 16.6)."


id: 7bde21f01d28af9bc1c491e8078f22fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19003
content:
"Extreme weather events not only cause substantial direct \r\neconomic damage (high confidence), but also reduce \r\neconomic growth in the short term (year of, and year \r\nafter event) (high confidence) as well as in the long term \r\n(up to 15 years after the event) (medium confidence), with \r\nmore severe impacts in developing than in industrialised \r\neconomies (high confidence). Evidence has increased for all \r\nof these conclusions; however, evidence for impacts of long-term \r\nclimate change is still limited. {16.2.3.7}"


id: a17b7b262ae913e0540f256fa3615251
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25626
content:
"The impacts of changes in climate-related systems have been \r\nidentified in a wide range of natural, human and managed \r\nsystems (very high confidence1\r\n). Compared with the last \r\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment \r\nReport (AR5), there is more evidence for impacts of long-term changes \r\nin climate-related systems (including the atmosphere, ocean and \r\ncryosphere) on socioeconomic indicators and high confidence in the \r\nsensitivity of societies to weather conditions. There is also stronger \r\nevidence for impacts of long-term climate change on ecosystems, \r\nincluding the observed widespread mortality of warm water corals, far \r\nreaching shifts in phenology in marine and terrestrial ecosystems and \r\nthe expansion of tropical species into the ranges of temperate species, \r\nand boreal species moving into Arctic regions (high confidence). \r\n{16.2.3, 16.2.3.1}"


id: 8460297a36ad747e685b90244f85b745
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20438
content:
"Climate variability and extremes are associated with increased \r\nprevalence of conflict, with more consistent evidence for low\u0002intensity organised violence than for major armed conflict \r\n(medium confidence). Compared with other socioeconomic drivers, \r\nthe link is relatively weak (medium confidence) and conditional \r\non high population size, low socioeconomic development, high \r\npolitical marginalisation and high agricultural dependence (medium \r\nconfidence). Literature also suggests a larger climate-related influence \r\non the dynamics of conflict than on the likelihood of initial conflict \r\noutbreak (low confidence). There is insufficient evidence at present to \r\nattribute armed conflict to climate change. {16.2.3.8}"


id: f288d12b2631149c0cefbbfb0c872988
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40069
content:
"There is high confidence that anthropogenic climate forcing has \r\nhad an impact on internal displacement, given the observed \r\nimpact of anthropogenic climate forcing on the occurrence \r\nof weather extremes (high confidence, Table  SM16.21) and \r\nthe strong contribution of weather extremes to observed \r\ndisplacement (high confidence). However, the link between long\u0002term changes in the climate-related systems has not been demonstrated \r\nsystematically, and so far there is no attribution of observed trends in \r\ndisplacement to long-term changes in the climate-related systems. Links \r\nbetween weather fluctuations (including extreme events) and human \r\nmobility are complex and conditional on socioeconomic situations; for \r\nexample, poor populations may more often be involuntarily displaced \r\nor 'trapped' and not be able to migrate. {16.2.3.9}"


id: 219e48ee1522eded3da5301ae640a3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3124
content:
"Increased rainfall intensity associated with tropical cyclones \r\nand rising sea levels have contributed to observed damages in \r\nlocal coastal systems (medium confidence). However, while the \r\nimpact is expected to be widespread, formal attribution of damages \r\nto long-term changes in the climate-related systems is still limited by \r\nrestricted knowledge about changes in exposure and vulnerability and \r\nthe missing quantification of the contribution of sea level rise to the \r\nextent of flooded areas. {16.2.3.3}"


id: 7d04a7c733d5ebbd42d7b8ba9e9c1010
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19180
content:
"Due to complex interactions with socioeconomic conditions, \r\nevidence on the impact of long-term climate change on crop \r\nprices and malnutrition is largely lacking, while the sensitivity of \r\nmalnutrition to weather conditions has become more evident in some \r\nregions, particularly Africa (medium to high confidence). A negative \r\nimpact of long-term climate change on crop yields has been identified \r\nin some regions (e.g., wheat yields in Europe) (medium confidence), \r\nwhile studies are still inconsistent in other regions. {16.2.3.4}"


id: b38407f5ff98a7e57b9a3d774a293a59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28824
content:
"While species are increasingly responding to climate change, \r\nthese responses may not be adaptive or sufficient to cope \r\nwith the rate of climate change (high confidence). Responses \r\nhave been documented in a range of species, including, for \r\nexample, changes in the timing of breeding and migration. It is \r\nunclear whether these responses reflect long-term evolutionary \r\nadaptation or short-term coping mechanisms. Existing assessments \r\nindicate that some species' responses will be insufficient to avert \r\nextinction. {16.3.1}"


id: 21010def74ee79257405a729487be370
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3028
content:
"hard limits are projected for water management measures, leading to \r\ndecreased water quality and availability, negative impacts on health \r\nand well-being, economic losses in water and energy-dependent \r\nsectors and potential migration of communities (medium confidence). \r\nAdaptation to address risks of heat stress, heat mortality and reduced \r\ncapacities for outdoor work for humans face soft and hard limits across \r\nregions beginning at 1.5degC, and are particularly relevant for regions \r\nwith warm climates (high confidence). {16.4.2, 16.4.3}"


id: 6ea731927f48e3eddd5b37bc7bbd7a9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16734
content:
"Responses across all sectors and regions reported in the \r\nscientific literature are dominated by minor modifications to \r\nusual practices or measures for dealing with extreme weather \r\nevents, while evidence of transformative adaptation in human \r\nsystems is low (high confidence). Responses have accelerated in \r\nboth developed and developing regions since AR5, with some examples \r\nof regression. Despite this, there is negligible evidence in the scientific \r\nliterature documenting responses that are simultaneously widespread \r\nand rapid, and that challenge norms and adaptation limits. {16.3.2.3}"


id: dbc00f2710f26d64bb2423e86196bf0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35950
content:
"Soft limits are currently being experienced by individuals and \r\nhouseholds along the coast and by small-scale farmers (medium \r\nconfidence). As sea levels rise and extreme events intensify, coastal \r\ncommunities face soft limits due to financial, institutional and \r\nsocioeconomic constraints reducing the efficacy of coastal protection \r\nand accommodation approaches and resulting in loss of life and \r\neconomic damages (medium confidence). {16.4.2, 16.4.3}"


id: 48e02faf0c320d899a4307bacc558454
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10038
content:
"There is negligible evidence that existing responses are \r\nadequate to reduce climate risk (high confidence). There is some \r\nevidence of global vulnerability reduction, particularly for mortality and \r\neconomic losses due to flood risk and extreme heat (Section 16.3.2.4). \r\nEvidence on the effectiveness of specific adaptations remains limited. \r\nThere is negligible robust evidence to assess the overall adequacy of \r\nthe global adaptation response to address the scale of climate risk. No \r\nstudies have systematically assessed the adequacy and effectiveness of \r\nadaptation at a global scale, across nations or sectors, or for different \r\nlevels of warming. {16.3.2.3}"


id: 4f5f3c364f4a096c5d2b4e692fe006d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11251
content:
"Hard limits for coastal communities reliant on nature-based \r\ncoastal protection will be experienced beginning at 1.5degC \r\n(medium confidence). Soft and hard limits for agricultural production \r\nare related to water availability and the uptake and effectiveness of \r\nclimate-resilient crops which are constrained by socioeconomic and \r\npolitical challenges (medium confidence). {16.4.2, 16.4.3}"


id: 8c1d2140ce06bba0f877d23f48d01f91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21824
content:
"Adaptation responses are showing co-benefits, for mitigation \r\nand other societal goals (high confidence). There is increasing \r\nevidence of co-benefits of adaptation responses. Co-benefits are \r\nmost frequently linked to changes in agricultural practices (e.g., \r\nconservation agriculture), land use management (e.g., agroforestry), \r\nbuilding technologies (e.g., building efficiency standards) and urban \r\ndesign (e.g., walkable neighbourhoods). {16.3.2.3}"


id: df09094b586f53b13107f97927d3e1be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36493
content:
"Across regions and sectors, the most significant determinants \r\nof soft limits are financial, governance, institutional and policy \r\nconstraints (high confidence). The ability of actors to overcome \r\nthese socioeconomic constraints largely influence whether additional \r\nadaptation is able to be implemented and prevent soft limits from \r\nbecoming hard. While the rate, extent and timing of climate hazards \r\nlargely determine hard limits of biophysical systems, these factors \r\nappear to be less influential in determining soft limits for human \r\nsystems (medium confidence). {16.4.2, 16.4.3}"


id: 5c4264df876f40a78c588afc7b25684f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13484
content:
"Evidence of maladaptation is increasing (high confidence), that \r\nis, adaptation that increases climate risk or creates new risks in other \r\nsystems or for other actors. Globally, maladaptation has been reported \r\nmost frequently in the context of agriculture and migration in the \r\nGlobal South. {16.3.2.6}"


id: a5c4359d641d09a3dba5f3430cc92a00
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26389
content:
"Financial constraints are important determinants of limits to \r\nadaptation, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries \r\n(high confidence). Impacts of climate change may increase financial \r\nconstraints (high confidence) and contribute to soft limits to adaptation \r\nbeing reached (medium confidence). Global and regional evidence \r\nshows that climate impacts may limit the availability of financial \r\nresources, stunt national economic growth, result in higher levels \r\nof losses and damages and thereby increase financial constraints. \r\n{16.4.3.2, 16.4.3.3}"


id: 749e043e49d29c84e2efe60e89eeaf6f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17752
content:
"There is increasing evidence on limits to adaptation which \r\nresult from the interaction of adaptation constraints and can be \r\ndifferentiated into soft and hard limits (high confidence). Soft \r\nlimits may change over time as additional adaptation options become \r\navailable. Hard limits will not change over time as no additional \r\nadaptive actions are possible. Evidence focuses on constraints that \r\nmay lead to limits at some point of the adaptation process, with \r\nless information on how limits may be related to different levels of \r\nsocioeconomic or climatic change (high confidence). {16.4.1, 16.4.2, \r\n16.4.3}"


id: e1d6be02756961c3264e2d9a93091041
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37013
content:
"Regional and sectoral chapters of this report identified over \r\n120 key risks (KRs) that could become severe under particular \r\nconditions of climate hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. These \r\nkey risk are represented in eight so-called Representative Key \r\nRisks (RKRs) clusters of key risks relating to low-lying coastal \r\nsystems; terrestrial and ocean ecosystems; critical physical \r\ninfrastructure, networks and services; living standards; human \r\nhealth; food security; water security; and peace and human \r\nmobility (high confidence). A key risk is defined as a potentially \r\n'severe' risk, that is, one that is relevant to the interpretation of \r\ndangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system. "


id: 7448041d4f745e90831ac850769b5f04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17691
content:
"Limits to adaptation have been identified for terrestrial and \r\naquatic species and ecosystems, coastal communities, water \r\nsecurity, agricultural production, and human health and heat \r\n(high confidence). Beginning at 1.5degC, autonomous and evolutionary \r\nadaptation responses by terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems \r\nface hard limits, resulting in biodiversity decline, species extinction \r\nand loss of related livelihoods (high confidence). Beginning at 3degC, "


id: 442167221afe286c2d6adb6caf68fd47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9225
content:
"extreme events (medium confidence). Food security for millions of \r\npeople, particularly low-income populations, also faces significant risks \r\nwith moderate to high warming or high vulnerability, with a growing \r\nchallenge by 2050 in terms of providing nutritious and affordable diets \r\n(high confidence). {16.5.2.3, 16.5.3}"


id: c23ae7fc35ea2b7dde35a26c9ab05375
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31460
content:
"Key risks cover scales from the local to the global, are especially \r\nprominent in particular regions or systems, and are particularly large \r\nfor vulnerable subgroups, especially low-income populations, and \r\nalready at-risk ecosystems (high confidence). The conditions under \r\nwhich RKRs would become severe have been assessed along levels \r\nfor warming, exposure/vulnerability, and adaptation: for warming, \r\nhigh refers to climate outcomes consistent with RCP8.5 or higher, \r\nlow refers to climate outcomes consistent with RCP2.6 or lower, \r\nand medium refers to outcomes for scenarios between RCPs 2.6 and \r\n8.5; exposure/vulnerability levels are relative to the range of future \r\nconditions considered in the literature; for adaptation, high refers to \r\nnear maximum potential and low refers to the continuation of today's \r\ntrends (and Sections 6.5.2.1, 16.5.2.2, SM16.7.4)."


id: 51583a77702abb668b29e3efd627e20c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11591
content:
"In specific systems already marked by high exposure and \r\nvulnerability, high adaptation efforts will not be sufficient \r\nto prevent severe risks from occurring under high warming \r\n(limited evidence, medium agreement). This is particularly the \r\ncase for some ecosystems and water-related risks (from water scarcity \r\nand to indigenous and traditional cultures and ways of life). {16.5.2.3, \r\n16.5.2.4, 16.5.3}"


id: a8ba3da8d18587f008844541aa8cabd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26891
content:
"Interconnectedness and globalisation establish pathways for the \r\ntransmission of climate-related risks across sectors and borders, \r\nfor instance through trade, finance, food and ecosystems (high \r\nconfidence). Examples include semiconductors, global investments, \r\nmajor food crops like wheat, maize and soybean, and transboundary \r\nfish stocks. There are knowledge gaps on the need for, effectiveness \r\nof, and limits to adaptation to such inter-regional risks. {Cross-Chapter \r\nBox INTERREG in this Chapter}"


id: 8d8eb488a7a8a31d5b4c7656f92e19fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22094
content:
"For most Representative Key Risks (RKRs), potentially global \r\nand systemically pervasive risks become severe in the case of \r\nhigh warming, combined with high exposure/vulnerability, low \r\nadaptation, or both (high confidence). Under these conditions, \r\nthere would be severe and pervasive risks to critical infrastructure \r\n(high confidence) and to human health from heat-related mortality, to \r\nlow-lying coastal areas, aggregate economic output, and livelihoods \r\n(all medium confidence), of armed conflict (low confidence), and to \r\nvarious aspects of food security (with different levels of confidence). \r\nSevere risks interact through cascading effects, potentially causing \r\namplification of RKRs over the course of this century (limited evidence,\r\nhigh agreement). {16.5.2.3, 16.5.2.4, 16.5.4, Figure 16.10}"


id: df5a4c85e48247e26cdce34937fff64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36541
content:
"Key risks increase the challenges in achieving global \r\nsustainability goals (high confidence). The greatest challenges will \r\nbe from risks to water (RKR-G), living standards (RKR-D), coastal socio\u0002ecological systems (RKR-A) and peace and human mobility (RKR-H). \r\nThe most relevant goals are zero hunger (Sustainable Development \r\nGoal [SDG] 2), sustainable cities and communities (SDG11), life \r\nbelow water (SDG14), decent work and economic growth (SDG8), \r\nand no poverty (SDG1). Priority areas for regions are indicated by the \r\nintersection of hazards, risks and challenges, where, in the near term, \r\nchallenges to SDGs indicate probable systemic vulnerabilities and \r\nissues in responding to climatic hazards (high confidence). {16.6.1}"


id: d28a4f3a259a123911440a4e09c1ade8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34395
content:
"For some RKRs, potentially global and systemically pervasive \r\nrisks would become severe even with medium to low warming \r\n(i.e., 1.5-2degC) if exposure/vulnerability is high and/or adaptation \r\nis low (medium to high confidence). Under these conditions, there \r\nwould be severe and pervasive risks associated with water scarcity \r\nand water-related disasters (high confidence), poverty, involuntary \r\nmobility, and insular ecosystems and biodiversity hotspots (all medium \r\nconfidence). {16.5.2.3, 16.5.2.4}"


id: 4f5418fe8ce4387769279e07ba4f4b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11242
content:
"The scale and nature of climate risks is partly determined by the \r\nresponses to climate change, not only in how they reduce risk, but \r\nalso how they may create other risks (sometimes inadvertently, and \r\nsometimes to others than those who implement the response, in other \r\nplaces, or later in time)."


id: dac5cad4b09c468b90423f40fa4e8fd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
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vector_id: 35782
content:
"All potentially severe risks that apply to particular sectors or \r\ngroups of people at more specific regional and local levels \r\nrequire high exposure/vulnerability or low adaptation (or both), \r\nbut do not necessarily require high warming (high confidence).\r\nUnder these conditions, there would be severe, specific risks to \r\nlow-lying coastal systems, to people and economies from critical \r\ninfrastructure disruption, economic output in developing countries, \r\nlivelihoods in climate-sensitive sectors, waterborne diseases especially \r\nin children in low- and middle-income countries, water-related impacts \r\non traditional ways of life, and involuntary mobility for example in \r\nsmall islands and low-lying coastal areas (medium to high confidence). \r\n{16.5.2.3, 16.5.2.4}"


id: 4ef176b0481b98f58dff01655b3976e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11172
content:
"Some severe impacts are already occurring (high confidence) \r\nand will occur in many more systems before mid-century \r\n(medium confidence). Tropical and polar low-lying coastal human \r\ncommunities are experiencing severe impacts today (high confidence), \r\nand abrupt ecological changes resulting from mass population-level \r\nmortality are already observed following climate extreme events. Some \r\nsystems will experience severe risks before the end of the century \r\n(medium confidence), for example critical infrastructure affected by "


id: a40ee9839295ebdde13d8696a34ae024
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26052
content:
"lives affected, species lost or ecosystem degradation at a global \r\nscale (RFC4), has begun to transition to moderate risk (medium \r\nconfidence), with a transition to high risk between 1.5degC and \r\n2.5degC (medium confidence) and to very high risk (new in AR6) at \r\nbetween 2.5degC and 4.5degC (medium confidence). {16.6.3.4}"


id: a9f93540b381c13c8e532266e22b588e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27127
content:
"emission levels globally. Co-evolution of SRM governance and research \r\nprovides a chance for responsibly developing SRM technologies with \r\nbroader public participation and political legitimacy, guarding against \r\npotential risks and harms relevant across a full range of scenarios. \r\n{Cross-Working Group Box SRM}"


id: e204e78df226263c84eef20a05941419
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37045
content:
"Recent global estimates of the economic cost of climate impacts \r\nexhibit significant spread and generally increase with global \r\naverage temperature, as well as vary by other drivers, such \r\nas income, population and composition of the economy (high \r\nconfidence). The wide variation across disparate methodologies does \r\nnot allow a robust range of damage estimates to be identified with \r\nconfidence, though the spread of estimates increases with warming in \r\nall methodologies, indicating higher risk (in terms of economic costs) \r\nat higher temperatures (high confidence). Reconciling methodological \r\nvariance is a priority for facilitating use of different lines of evidence; \r\nhowever, that some new estimates are higher than the AR5 range \r\nindicates that global aggregate economic impacts could be higher \r\nthan previously assessed (low confidence due to the lack of robustness \r\nand comparability across methodologies). {Cross-Working Group \r\nBox ECONOMIC in Chapter 16}"


id: 4421a52b253815741906ea59debd2d47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9226
content:
"Limiting global warming to 1.5degC would ensure risk levels remain \r\nmoderate for RFC3, RFC4 and RFC5 (medium confidence), but \r\nrisk for RFC2 would have transitioned to a high risk at 1.5degC and \r\nRFC1 would be well into the transition to very high risk (high \r\nconfidence). Remaining below 2degC warming (but above 1.5degC) \r\nwould imply that risk for RFC3 through 5 would be transitioning \r\nto high, and risk for RFC1 and RFC2 would be transitioning to \r\nvery high (high confidence). By 2.5degC warming, RFC1 will be in very \r\nhigh risk (high confidence) and all other RFCs will have begun their \r\ntransitions to very high risk (medium confidence for RFC2, RFC3 and \r\nRFC4, low confidence for RFC5)."


id: 7a4c34aaac46ad94a2cc377c46b8a145
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
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vector_id: 18711
content:
"The five major Reasons for Concern (RFCs), describing risks associated \r\nwith (1) unique and threatened systems, (2) extreme weather events, \r\n(3) distribution of impacts, (4) global aggregate impacts, and (5) \r\nlarge-scale singular events, were updated using expert elicitation. \r\nRFC risk levels were assessed with no or low adaptation, but limits \r\nto adaptation are a factor in the identification of very high risk levels."


id: 28d3ac84ee47bd9d353c55941ce69ac1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4398
content:
"RFC1, RFC2 and RFC5 include risks that are irreversible, such as species \r\nextinction, coral reef degradation, loss of cultural heritage, or loss of \r\na small island due to sea level rise. Once such risks materialise, as is \r\nexpected at very high risk levels, the impacts would persist even if \r\nglobal temperatures would subsequently decline to levels associated \r\nwith lower levels of risk in an 'overshooting' scenario (high confidence). \r\n{16.6.3}"


id: ae0dc2d2fa6472c2470cf5f4aed27387
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27864
content:
"Compared with AR5 and SR15, risks increase to high and very \r\nhigh levels at lower global warming levels for all five RFCs (high \r\nconfidence), and transition ranges are assigned with greater \r\nconfidence. Transitions from high to very high risk emerge in all \r\nfive RFCs, compared with just two RFCs in AR5 (high confidence). \r\n{16.6.3, Figure 16.15}"


id: b3b2ff5167e1991c4efdaabc7e20fc3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28860
content:
"consequences include those on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, \r\neconomic, social and cultural assets and investments, infrastructure, ser\u0002vices (including ecosystem services), ecosystems and species (Chapter \r\n1 this volume, SR15 (IPCC, 2018a)). The AR6 definition explicitly notes \r\nthat 'risks can arise from potential impacts of climate change as well as \r\nhuman responses to climate change.'"


id: b66d521cde8b4bba61118f3d5a5dac05
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29308
content:
"The main risks assessed here relate to the potential impacts of \r\nclimate change. In recent years, the growing visibility of current \r\nclimate impacts has resulted in a stronger focus on understanding \r\nand managing such risk across time scales, rather than just for the \r\nlonger-term future. Examples include the rapid growth in attribution \r\nof specific extreme weather events, the use of scientific evidence of \r\nclimate change impacts in legal cases, and the context of the Paris \r\nAgreement's Article 8 on 'averting, minimising and addressing loss \r\nand damage' associated with climate change, but also the stronger \r\nlinks between adaptation and disaster risk reduction, including early\u0002warning systems, wider discussions on how to build resilience in the \r\nface of a more volatile climate, and attention for limits to adaptation \r\nthat are already being reached."


id: e54a96132322bfd4f240c64d88bdff73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37642
content:
"The three synthesis chapters of this report (Chapters 16, 17 and 18) aim \r\nto address these concerns. They synthesise information from across all \r\nthematic and regional chapters of the Working Group II (WGII) IPCC \r\nSixth Assessment Report (AR6) and the recent IPCC Special Reports \r\non Global Warming of 1.5degC, on Climate Change and Land, and on \r\nOcean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SR15 (IPCC, 2018a), \r\nSRCCL (IPCC, 2019a) and SROCC (IPCC, 2019b)), but also include an \r\nindependent assessment of the literature, especially literature that cuts \r\nacross sectors and regions."


id: 5d671137a2cd11921c658a0624aaa1cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13720
content:
"Of course, the scale of these risks is also determined by the responses\r\nto climate change, mainly in how they reduce risk, but also how they \r\nmay create risks (sometimes inadvertently, and sometimes to others \r\nthan those who implement the response, in other places, or later in \r\ntime). Our focus is on adaptation responses, given that mitigation is \r\ncovered in Working Group III (WGIII) AR6, but we acknowledge certain \r\nimportant interactions, such as biomass production as an alternative to \r\nfossil fuels which can compete with food production and thus aggravate \r\nadaptation challenges. Given that SRM could also be considered a \r\nresponse with significant implications for climate risks across scales, \r\nthis chapter also includes Cross-Working Group Box SRM."


id: d22d80b801c1ff82120a158e484a35e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Chapter 16 lays the groundwork by synthesising the state of knowledge \r\non the observed impacts of climate change (Section  16.2) and \r\nongoing adaptation responses (Section 16.3), the limits to adaptation \r\n(Section 16.4), and the key risks we should be concerned about, how \r\nthese risks evolve with global temperature change, and also how they \r\ndepend on future development and adaptation efforts (Sections 16.5, \r\n16.6). It thus brings together elements that were assessed in different \r\nchapters in previous assessments, especially the Third, Fourth and Fifth \r\nAssessment Reports (TAR, AR4 and AR5, respectively). Background \r\non specific methodological aspects of this chapter is provided in \r\nSupplementary Material (SM)."


id: c9fcdd3fe8914bc02624146a7a266bf4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32866
content:
"This assessment focuses primarily on adverse consequences of climate \r\nchange. However, climate change also has positive implications \r\n(benefits and opportunities) for certain people and systems, although \r\nthere are gaps in the literature on these positive effects. Some risks \r\nassessed in this chapter are actually about a balance between positive \r\nand negative effects of climate change (and of response options, \r\nespecially adaptation). In those contexts, we assess the combined effect \r\nof both, aiming to identify not only the aggregate impacts (the balance \r\nbetween positive and negative effects) but also the distributional \r\naspects (winners and losers). A more comprehensive discussion of the \r\ndecision-making related to such trade-offs in relation to adaptation is \r\nprovided in Chapter 17."


id: c431ab9cc9923842866fbabb6fb6abf2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The strong link between risks, adaptation and development connects \r\nthis chapter closely to Chapters 17 and 18. Chapter 17 assesses \r\ndecision -making: what do we know about the ways to manage risks \r\nin a warming climate (including in the context of the key risks and \r\nlimits to adaptation identified in this chapter)? Chapter 18 puts all of \r\nthis information into the perspective of climate resilient development \r\npathways: how can we achieve sustainable development given the \r\nadditional challenges posed by climate change?"


id: 7d517f25d8c93823e14ba8cb53d2bc1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19224
content:
"This chapter's assessment takes a global perspective, although many \r\nrisks and responses materialise at the local or national scale. We use \r\ncase studies to illustrate the ways these risks aggregate across scales, \r\nagain with particular concern for distributional aspects."


id: a6166536f748d349b325b60d9aa0a00a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26440
content:
"In the IPCC AR6, 'risk' is defined as the potential for adverse conse\u0002quences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of \r\nvalues and objectives associated with such systems. Relevant adverse "


id: 25426befac4ca7c7fa37f6c208a7e12c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3745
content:
"Figure 16.1 illustrates the elements covered by the chapter, which can \r\nbe summarised as four key questions."


id: 8d8bcd5b45902d44b84f6e9af6f57ce6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22091
content:
"Figure 16.1 illustrates the elements covered by the chapter, which can be summarised as four key questions"


id: 29c2aa8f0ccbd1f43ecff341bc3e89c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4574
content:
"Figure 16.1 |  Illustrative storyline of the chapter highlighting the central questions addressed in the various sections, from realised risks (observed impacts) \r\nto future risks (key risks and reasons for concern), informed by adaptation-related responses and the limits to adaptation. The arrows illustrate actions to reduce \r\nhazard, exposure and vulnerability, which shape risks over time. Accordingly, the green areas at the centre of the propeller diagrams indicate the ability for such solutions to reduce \r\nrisk, up to certain adaptation limits, leaving the white residual risk (or observed impacts) in the centre. The shading of the right-hand-side propeller diagram compared with the \r\nnon-shaded one on the left reflects some degree of uncertainty about future risks. The figure builds on the conceptual framework of risk-adaptation relationships used in SROCC \r\n(Garschagen et al., 2019)."


id: 705c5fab37f781a204e8be3cc07b7dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17024
content:
"had already affected many physical and biological systems, with \r\npreliminary indications that some human systems had been affected, \r\nprimarily through floods and droughts. AR4 found likely2\r\n discernible \r\nimpacts on many physical and biological systems, and more limited \r\nevidence for impacts on human environments. AR5 devoted a separate \r\nchapter to observed impacts, which found growing evidence of impacts \r\non human and ecological systems on all continents and across oceans \r\n(Cramer et al., 2014)."


id: 2b28f8f42b85cf36529627ce19c66192
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4838
content:
"This assessment of climate-related impacts that are already taking \r\nplace is covered in Section 16.2, which aims to differentiate between \r\nobserved changes in climate hazards (also called 'climate impact \r\ndrivers' in IPCC Working Group I) and the exposure and vulnerability of \r\nhuman and ecological systems."


id: d164cbc497d4ef34258ae766abd90fba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34193
content:
"Observed impacts of climate change were synthesised in the TAR, \r\nAR4 and AR5. The TAR found that recent regional climate changes "


id: 4fb98bd435cefe6f8b7d67c3ece2edb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
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vector_id: 11319
content:
"Section 16.2 reports on the expanded literature since then, generally \r\nreflecting a growing and more certain impact of climate change on \r\nhumans and ecological systems."


id: bbf59dde0bcf4e516b366e18c9b8a06d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Section 16.5.1 presents a full discussion of 'key risks', synthesised from \r\nacross all chapters, defined as those risks that are potentially severe \r\nand therefore especially relevant to the interpretation of 'dangerous \r\nanthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the terminology \r\nof UNFCCC Article 2."


id: 1a6a2a63d17e4c0f6b1334689c87b39f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Section 16.3 provides, for the first time, a comprehensive synthesis of \r\nobserved adaptation-related responses to the rising risks."


id: ec5de6f1758b14a19d180327f4e36c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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vector_id: 38947
content:
"Such adaptation responses were first covered in the TAR, and further \r\ndeveloped in the AR4 and AR5. For instance, AR5 Chapter 15 notes \r\nthat adaptation to climate change was transitioning from a phase of \r\nawareness to the construction of actual strategies and plans in societies \r\n(Mimura et al., 2014) but did not include a comprehensive mapping of \r\nresponses."


id: 54d975dec7121e1cf9a9eb43e53146b0
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content:
"Based on such a comprehensive mapping, Section 16.3 finds growing \r\nevidence of adaptation-related responses, although these are dominated \r\nby minor modifications to usual practices or measures for dealing with \r\nextreme weather events, and there is limited evidence for the extent to \r\nwhich they reduce climate risk."


id: d5da32726b369089fe3bf691f553c3d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34937
content:
"The literature on limits to adaptation, which is covered in Section 16.4, \r\nhas strongly evolved since AR5, including links to discussions on loss \r\nand damage in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate \r\nChange (UNFCCC). While the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of \r\nAR4 noted that there was no clear picture of the limits to adaptation, \r\nor the cost, AR5 Chapter 16 (Klein et  al., 2014) reported increasing \r\ninsights emerging from the interactions between climate change and \r\nbiophysical and socioeconomic constraints, and highlighted the fact \r\nthat limits could be both hard and soft. It also noted that residual \r\nlosses and damages will occur from climate change despite adaptation \r\nand mitigation action. However, AR5 Chapter 16 still found that the \r\nempirical evidence needed to identify limits to adaptation of specific \r\nsectors, regions, ecosystems or species that can be avoided with \r\ndifferent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation pathways was lacking."


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"A new element is that we particularly look at a set of eight \r\n'representative key risks' that exemplify the underlying set of key \r\nrisks identified in the earlier chapters: risk to the integrity of low\u0002lying coastal socio-ecological systems, risk to terrestrial and ocean \r\necosystems, risk to critical physical infrastructure and networks, risk to \r\nliving standards (including economic impacts, poverty and inequality), \r\nrisk to human health, risk to food security, risk to water security, and \r\nrisk to peace and human mobility (Section 16.5.2.3)."


id: 75656ff8af691806c8ee6f23db5402be
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"Another increased focus relates to the issue of compound risks. This \r\nincludes risks associated with compound hazards (Working Group I \r\nAR6 Chapter 11, Seneviratne et  al., 2021), but also implications for \r\nfuture risk when repeated impacts erode vulnerability, as well as \r\nthrough transboundary effects (including effects both from one system \r\nto a neighbouring one, as well as from one system to a distant one), \r\nalso discussed in the cross-chapter box on inter-regional risks and \r\nadaptation (Cross-Chapter Box INTEREG in this Chapter)."


id: ca98a6266602c6f60068619b540401bd
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"Section 16.4 provides a more comprehensive assessment of limits to \r\nadaptation, highlighting again that limits to adaptation are not fixed, \r\nbut are properties of dynamic socio-ecological systems. They are shaped \r\nnot only by the magnitude of the climate hazards (e.g., the amount of \r\nsea level rise in low-lying coasts and islands) and the exposure and \r\nvulnerability to those hazards (e.g., people and assets in those areas), \r\nbut also by physical, infrastructural and social tolerance thresholds and \r\nadaptation choices of actors in societies (e.g., the decision to migrate \r\nfrom locations strongly impacted by climate change). The evolution of \r\nsuch socioeconomic systems over time, including their interaction with \r\nthe changing physical climate, determines the evolution of limits to \r\nadaptation."


id: d40ddba459a8029a9c3e9fc88edd9933
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"Section 16.6 maps the representative key risks in Section 16.5 to the \r\nSDGs, noting both direct and indirect implications for climate resilient \r\ndevelopment as assessed in Chapter 18."


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"Finally, Section 16.6 presents an updated assessment of the so-called \r\nReasons for Concern (RFC): risks related to unique and threatened \r\nsystems, extreme events, distribution of impacts, aggregate impacts \r\n(including the cross-chapter box on the global economic impacts of \r\nclimate change and the social cost of carbon, Cross-Working Group \r\nBox ECONOMIC) and the risk of irreversible and abrupt transitions."


id: af6a6aa17d29ccdef28fa961538c107
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"The fourth and final element of the chapter is the question about the \r\nrisks we face, and which ones we should be most concerned about. \r\nThis is addressed in Sections 16.5 and 16.6."


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"The AR4 and AR5 each also evaluated the most important climate risks, \r\nframed firstly in terms of the state of knowledge relevant to Article 2 \r\nof the UNFCCC. The TAR first synthesised this knowledge in five RFCs. \r\nAR4 identified a set of 'key vulnerabilities' and provided an update of \r\nthe RFCs. AR5 further refined a new risk framework developed in the \r\nIPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and \r\nDisasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), and used it \r\nto assess 'key risks' and provide another update of the overarching \r\nRFCs, drawing as well on Cramer et al.'s (2014) assessment of observed \r\nchanges."


id: 13934530a843389485316751f2edd94
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"Our risk assessment also further builds on risk assessments from \r\nthe Special Reports that are part of the AR6 cycle, that is, SR15, \r\nSRCCL and SROCC. While since AR4 the RFC assessment framework \r\nhas remained largely consistent, refinements in methodology have \r\nincluded the consideration of different risks, the role of adaptation, use \r\nof confidence statements, more formalised protocols and standardised \r\nmetrics (Zommers et al., 2020). In subsequent assessment cycles, the \r\nrisk level at a given temperature has generally increased, reflecting \r\naccumulating scientific evidence (Zommers et al., 2020)."


id: ccadbf9aee446bbd87d734dea008fdee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"Rapidly accelerating trends in human impacts on global ecosystems \r\nand biodiversity, especially in the past five decades, have resulted \r\nin precipitous declines in the numbers of many wild species on land \r\nand in the ocean, transformation of the terrestrial land surface for \r\nagricultural production, and the pervasive spread of alien and invasive \r\nspecies (IPBES, 2019). As a result, the capacity of ecosystems to support \r\nhuman society is thought to be coming under threat. For instance, the \r\nfraction of all primary production being appropriated for human use \r\nhas doubled over the course of the 20th century (to about 25% in \r\n2005), although it has grown at a slower rate than human population \r\n(Krausmann et  al., 2013). Future projections significantly depend \r\non bioenergy production, signalling one of the feedbacks between \r\nresponses to climate change and climate risks."


id: 594238c7470859a3c273be4802a98971
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"Climate-related impacts, risks and responses all take place against \r\na backdrop of trends in exposure and vulnerability driven by \r\ndemographics, socioeconomic development (including inequalities) and \r\necosystem degradation. Other global trends that are shaping climate \r\nrisks include technological innovation, shifts in global power relations, \r\nand resource scarcity (Retief et  al., 2016). Note that these global \r\ntrends may increase but also reduce exposure and/or vulnerability, for \r\ninstance when growing incomes, savings and social protection systems \r\nincrease resilience in the face of shocks and stresses. Drivers and future \r\ntrends in vulnerability and exposure--next to climate-induced changes \r\nin natural hazards--therefore need to be considered in comprehensive \r\nrisk assessments and eventually adaptation solutions, but empirical \r\nresearch suggests that they remain to be underemphasised in current \r\nnational adaptation planning (Garschagen et al., 2021a)."


id: a0bf22a7f611253026997759bbb654df
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"While these risk drivers are often listed separately, they are often closely \r\ninterconnected, including between human and ecological systems, and \r\nincreasingly also through climate risks and responses (e.g., Simpson \r\net  al., 2021). Climate impacts increasingly affect these drivers, and \r\nmay compete with financial resources that could otherwise be applied \r\nfor development, mitigation, adaptation and resilience building, also \r\naffecting inequalities (e.g., Taconet et al., 2020)."


id: 1a2e57eaed2f37a6aad9c5b2e15d0fe9
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"Population growth (or decline) can result in increasing (or decreasing) \r\npressure on natural resources (e.g., soils, water and fish stocks) (IPBES, \r\n2019), and can result in the expansion of densely populated areas \r\n(Cardona et al., 2012; Day et al., 2016). The majority of the population \r\nin the coming decades will be in urban areas. While urbanisation can \r\nhave many benefits that reduce vulnerability, such as employment \r\nopportunities and increased income, better access to healthcare and \r\neducation, and improved infrastructure, unsustainable urbanisation "


id: cd3a00604d4de3a8580a9709202b5fe2
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"The majority of the population in poverty are smallholder farmers and \r\npastoralists, whose livelihoods critically depend on climate-sensitive \r\nnatural ecosystems, such as through semi-subsistence agriculture where \r\nfood consumption is primarily dependent on households' own food \r\nproduction (Mbow et al., 2019). A significant share of this population \r\nis affected by armed conflict, which deters economic development and \r\ngrowth and increases local dependence on subsistence agriculture \r\n(Serneels and Verpoorten, 2015; Braithwaite et  al., 2016; Tollefsen, \r\n2017), and aggravating humanitarian challenges (e.g., ICRC, 2020). \r\nExtreme weather events, particularly droughts, can result in poverty \r\ntraps keeping people poor or making them poorer, resulting in widening \r\ninequalities within and across countries."


id: ad854104057d816dcfabe6dfac1a218c
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"The section adopts the general definition of detection as 'demonstra\u0002tion that a considered system has changed without providing reasons \r\nfor the change' and attribution as 'identifying the causes of the ob\u0002served long-term change in an impact indicator or of the change in \r\nthe temporal or spatial extent, the intensity or frequency of a specific \r\nevent' (see Glossary (Annex II))."


id: f4fff3de17744ce69910db9f16d8f4c0
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"Based on these general definitions and following the approach \r\napplied in WGII AR5 Chapter 18 (Cramer et al., 2014), we define an\r\nobserved impact as the difference between the observed state of a \r\nnatural, human or managed system and a counterfactual baseline \r\nthat characterises the system's state in the absence of changes in the\r\nclimate-related systems, defined here as climate system including \r\nthe ocean and the cryosphere as physical or chemical systems."


id: 98b7a22606e6455a0f29ccadcad9cccb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"The difference between the observed and the counterfactual baseline \r\nstate is considered the change in the natural, human or managed \r\nsystem that is attributed to the changes in the climate-related \r\nsystems (impact attribution). The counterfactual baseline may be \r\nstationary or may change over time, for example due to direct human \r\ninfluences such as changes in land use patterns and agricultural or \r\nwater management affecting exposure and vulnerability to climate\u0002related hazards (see Section 16.2.3 for methods on how to construct \r\nthe counterfactual baseline)."


id: e46d1b289ef3a72cde6a8c289992b058
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"In this chapter, we explicitly distinguish between assessment statements \r\nrelated to 'climate attribution' (listed in Table  SM16.21), 'impact \r\nattribution' (listed in Table  SM16.22) and 'identification of weather \r\nsensitivity' (listed in Table  SM16.23). The identification of 'weather \r\nsensitivity' does not necessarily imply that there also is an impact of \r\nlong-term changes in the climate-related systems on the considered \r\nsystem. However, if the probability or intensity of an extreme weather \r\nevent has increased due to anthropogenic forcing ('climate attribution') \r\n(NASEM, 2016; WGI AR6 Chapter 11 Seneviratne et al., 2021) and the \r\nevent is also identified as an important driver of an observed fluctuation \r\nin a natural, human or managed system ('identification of weather \r\nsensitivity'), then the observed fluctuation is considered (partly) \r\nattributed to long-term climate change ('impact attribution') and even \r\nto anthropogenic forcing."


id: f7356c544f4d2c7f068b8661ccf260f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"Changes in climate-related systems can certainly also affect natural, \r\nhuman and managed systems through indirect effects on land use, \r\npollution or exposure. However, these indirect effects are barely \r\naddressed in existing studies."


id: 81ef50abaf278861d2eb2af652d8e777
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"In addition to impact attribution, there is research on the identification \r\nof natural, human or managed systems' response to short-term \r\n(typically daily, monthly or annual) weather fluctuations or individual \r\nextreme weather events. As different from impact attribution, we \r\nseparately define:"


id: 4055c9c602faa97cfb986fa9d57764d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"'Identification of weather sensitivity' refers to the attribution of \r\nthe response of a system to fluctuations in weather and short-term \r\nchanges in the climate-related systems including individual extreme \r\nweather events (e.g., a heatwave or storm surge)."


id: 636f40c4711aaaa449f85ae25c0ba97f
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"In a situation where an influence of other direct human drivers can \r\nbe excluded (e.g., by restriction to remote areas not affected by "


id: 6362326ebd9c94dd3e400b4252427c90
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"direct human interventions), the 'no climate-change' baseline can \r\nalso be approximated by data from early observational periods with \r\nno or minor levels of climate change. In particular, the contribution \r\nof climate change to the observed changes in ecosystems is often \r\nalso determined by a 'multiple lines of evidence' approach where \r\nthe baseline is not formally quantified but the observed changes are \r\nidentified as a signal of climate change compared with a no-climate\u0002change situation based on process understanding from, for example, \r\npalaeo data and laboratory or field experiments in combination with \r\nindividual long-term observational records and the large-scale spatial \r\nor temporal pattern of observed changes that can hardly be explained \r\nby alternative drivers (Parmesan et al., 2013)."


id: 2aed002b5e77908cac72d8ce91945496
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"SM16.21 on climate attribution, SM16.22 on impact attribution and \r\nSM16.23 on identification of weather sensitivity that provide the more \r\ndetailed explanations behind each regional or global assessment, \r\nincluding all references. The synthesis was generated in collaboration \r\nwith 'detection and attribution contact persons' from the individual \r\nchapters that each includes its own assessment of observed impacts, \r\nand contributing authors on individual topics. The synthesis of 'climate \r\nattribution' studies in Table SM16.21 was particularly informed by the \r\nWGI assessment."


id: 332bc8fd983433b98c4eb86b14086f1b
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"If Figure 16.2 only provides an assessment of attributed impacts on \r\na given system (e.g., phenology shifts in terrestrial ecosystems) but \r\ndoes not include an associated 'identification of weather sensitivity' \r\nthat does not mean that the system is not sensitive to weather \r\nfluctuations. The focus of our assessment was on 'impact attribution', \r\nand we only provide an assessment of 'weather sensitivities' if the \r\nliterature has turned out to provide only limited evidence on impacts \r\nof long-term changes in climate-related systems but rather addressed \r\nthe responses of natural, human or managed systems to short-term \r\nweather fluctuations in the climate-related ones."


id: 8f9e6eef9d6f7c78f189a12dd0a1be03
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"There also has been significant progress in the compilation of \r\nfragmented and distributed observational data (e.g., Cohen et al., \r\n2018, for phenological ecosystem changes; Poloczanska et al., 2013, for \r\ndistributional shifts in marine ecosystems; Andela et al., 2019, with the \r\nnew global fire atlas including information about individual fire size, \r\nduration, speed and direction) as well as in the regional disaggregation \r\n(e.g., Ray et al., 2015, for crop yields ) allowing for the identification of \r\nan overall picture of the impacts of progressing climate change. Given \r\nthe ever-increasing body of literature on observed changes in natural, \r\nhuman and managed systems, there also is a first machine learning \r\napproach for an automated identification of relevant literature that \r\ncould complement or support expert assessments as the one provided \r\nhere (Callaghan et al., 2021)."


id: 5f9852260a7f11b5bb6769aba169a40f
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"There is also a clear footprint of climate change on species distribution, \r\nwith appreciable proportions of tropical species expanding into the \r\nranges of temperate species, and boreal species moving into Arctic \r\nregions (high confidence, see 'Marine ecosystems--Range reduction \r\nand shift' and 'Terrestrial ecosystems--Range reduction and shift', \r\nTable  SM16.22). Climate change has also shifted the phenology of \r\nanimals and plants on land and in the ocean (high confidence, see \r\n'Marine ecosystems--Phenology shift' and 'Terrestrial ecosystems--\r\nPhenology shifts', Table SM16.22). Both processes have led to emerging "


id: 4f05c1729ab2cec6ee6b01d07d076946
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content:
"In this section, we synthesise observed impacts of changes in climate\u0002related systems across a range of ecosystems, sectors and regions. \r\nFigure  16.2 summarises the attribution of observed (regional) \r\nchanges in natural, human or managed systems (orange symbols and \r\nconfidence ratings), the quantification of weather sensitivity of those \r\nsystems (blue symbols and confidence ratings) and the attribution of \r\nunderlying changes in the climate-related systems to anthropogenic \r\nforcing (grey symbols and confidence ratings). The figure can be \r\nread as a summary and table of content for the underlying Tables "


id: e580c7480508660daffc8af31f275927
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"hybridisation, competition, temporal or spatial mismatches in predator-\r\nprey, guest-host relationships, and the invasion of alien plant pests \r\nor pathogens (Edwards and Richardson, 2004; Bebber et  al., 2013; \r\nParmesan et al., 2013; Millon et al., 2014; Thackeray et al., 2016)."


id: a4087eeed0860106787c378c375cde6e
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"With their enormous destructive power, tropical cyclones represent \r\na major risk for coastal systems (see 'Coastal systems--Damages', \r\nTable SM16.23). Despite its relevance, confidence in the influence of \r\nanthropogenic climate forcing on the strength and occurrence probability \r\nof tropical storms themselves is still low (see 'Coastal systems--"


id: 2f8c381659b2405e9c4241f6a66c2137
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"climate-induced increase (28% of observed trend since 1981) in maize \r\nyields in the USA (Butler et al., 2018, based on a detailed accounting \r\nof impacts of extreme temperatures and growing season adjustments) \r\nand a climate-induced decrease in millet and sorghum yields (10-20% \r\nfor millet and 5-15% for sorghum in 2000-2009 compared with \r\npre-industrial conditions) in Africa and a negative effect of historical \r\nclimate change on potential wheat yields (27% reduction from 1990 \r\nto 2015) in Australia (Hochman et al., 2017; Sultan et al., 2019 based \r\non detailed process-based modelling including a dedicated evaluation \r\nagainst observed yield fluctuations). These findings need additional \r\nsupport by independent studies. Results are relatively convergent that \r\nclimate change has been an important driver of the recent declines in \r\nwheat yields in Europe (medium confidence) (Moore and Lobell, 2015; \r\nAgnolucci and De Lipsis, 2019; Ray et al., 2019)."


id: d503742c0fa1e99438a604efd1ae879
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"Whereas the weather sensitivity of waterborne diseases is well \r\nestablished for all world regions (see 'Water distribution--Water\u0002borne diseases', Table SM16.23), studies attempting to attribute recent \r\ntrends in waterborne disease to climate change are non-existent, \r\nexcept for investigations on the distribution of marine Vibrio bacteria "


id: ac59898e5c062958753822c8d2d040a3
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"Medlock et al., 2013; Paz et al., 2013; Roiz et al., 2015; ECDC, 2018, see \r\n'Other societal impacts--Vector-borne diseases', Table SM16.22)."


id: 188908633091d6907467cf0bc1cb44d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"and associated disease outbreaks in the coastal North Atlantic and the \r\nBaltic Sea regions (Baker-Austin et al., 2013; Baker-Austin et al., 2016; \r\nVezzulli et  al., 2016; Ebi et  al., 2017). These investigations provide \r\nevidence that increases in sea surface temperatures over recent decades \r\nas well as during recent summer heatwaves are linked to increased \r\nconcentrations of Vibrio bacteria in coastal waters and an associated \r\nrise in environmentally acquired Vibrio infections in humans."


id: 8af54ca65f6ebe776d1f316395c0b563
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"have increased the GDP per capita gap between Sub-Saharan Africa \r\nand other developing countries (low confidence) (Barrios et al., 2010). \r\nOverall, more research is needed on the impact channels through which \r\nextreme weather events and weather variability can hinder economic \r\ndevelopment, especially in the long term."


id: 6c8b9c155160e3bb5c7b113348af5ea0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Given the complexity of human migration processes and decisions \r\n(e.g., Boas et  al., 2019, Cattaneo et  al., 2019) and the paucity of \r\nlong-term, reliable and internally consistent observational data on \r\ndisplacement (IDMC, 2019; IDMC, 2020) and migration (Laczko, 2016), \r\nthe contribution of long-term changes in climate-related systems to \r\nobserved human displacement or migration patterns has not been \r\nquantified so far, except for individual examples of displacement induced \r\nby inland flooding where the heavy precipitation has been attributed to \r\nanthropogenic climate forcing and coastal flooding (see 'Other societal \r\nimpacts--Displacement and migration', Table SM16.22; Section CCP2)."


id: f656451d911ef543be8bf8d5c9d0f8ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"A new development since AR5 is that there is now growing ev\u0002idence assessing progress on adaptation across sectors, geographies \r\nand spatial scales. Uncertainty persists around what defines adaptation \r\nand how to measure it (Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18, UNEP, \r\n2021). As a result, most literature synthesising responses is based on \r\ndocumented or reported adaptations only, and is thus subject to sub\u0002stantial reporting bias."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20899
content:
"In general, the historical influence of climate on conflict is judged to \r\nbe small when compared with dominant conflict drivers (Mach et al., \r\n2019). Much of this research is limited to (parts of) Sub-Saharan Africa, \r\nwhich raises some concerns about selection bias and generalisability \r\nof results (Adams et al., 2018)."


id: 7bb122bd7223f2813dac42e63f452c3b
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vector_id: 18972
content:
"Yet, the attribution of the Syrian civil war to climate change has triggered a heated debate. A number of studies argue that the principal \r\ndrivers of the drought-induced economic collapse were political rather than environmental in nature, shaped by adverse economic \r\nreforms and unsustainable agricultural policies, promoting water-intensive irrigation schemes for cotton cultivation and implementing \r\nabrupt subsidy cuts at the peak of the drought, implying that many poor farmers no longer could afford fertilis ers or fuel to power \r\nirrigation pumps (Barnes, 2009; De Chatel, 2014; Eklund and Thompson, 2017; Selby et al., 2017). Thus, the 2006-2010 drought did not \r\nprecipitate similar devastating socioeconomic impacts on agrarian communities across the borders in Turkey, Iraq or Jordan, although \r\nenvironmental conditions were comparable (Trigo et al., 2010; Eklund and Thompson, 2017; Feitelson and Tubi, 2017)."


id: 6351a6c5f1de0e36d9b48ba41cb606d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14772
content:
"However, the relevant attribution question is not whether the same drought would produce the same consequences under different \r\npolitical and socioeconomic conditions, but rather, given the same political and socioeconomic context, how would the outcomes have \r\ndiffered in the absence of climate change? Research still provides very limited insights into whether and how the escalation process \r\nwould have evolved differently in a counterfactual no-climate-change world."


id: 89db1e8e3673748cc71015341708d8f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21421
content:
"Thus, the role of the drought in augmenting pre-existing internal migration, and the role of the distress migration in accentuating \r\ndemographic, economic and social pressures in receiving areas, remain contested. Estimates of the number of people who abandoned \r\ntheir farms in response to the drought range from less than 40,000-60,000 families (Selby et al., 2017) to more than 1.5 million displaced \r\n(Gleick, 2014). However, the numbers have to be seen in the context of prevailing population growth, significant rural-urban migration, \r\nand the preceding inflow of around 1.5 million refugees from neighbouring Iraq (De Chatel, 2014; Hoffmann, 2016). In addition, research \r\nsuggests that the migrants played a peripheral role in the initial social mobilisation in March 2011 (Frohlich, 2016)."


id: 24f8bed926834de081711d0200f316f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3702
content:
"While it is undisputed that the drought caused direct economic losses, its overall additional impact on the Syrian economy, relative to \r\nother prevalent drivers of economic misery, including rampant unemployment, increasing inequalities, declining rural productivity, and \r\nloss of oil revenues (Aita, 2009; Landis, 2012; De Chatel, 2014; Selby, 2019), has not been quantified."


id: f4dd707ec86faf2253c0f83ec833a931
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40447
content:
"In summary, the drought itself is shown to be attributable to GHG emissions. The agricultural losses and internal migration from rural to \r\nurban areas can be directly linked to the drought and in this way are partly attributable to GHG emissions, although there are no studies \r\ncomparing the observed losses and number of people displaced with a counterfactual situation of a weaker drought in a 'no climate \r\nchange' situation. Current research does not provide enough evidence to attribute the civil war to climate change. In contrast, it is likely \r\nthat social uprisings would have occurred even without the drought."


id: 2f4392d2041e47527a67cca57ac6c9ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5581
content:
"Identification of weather sensitivity:\r\nObserved influence of fluctuations\r\nin the climate-related systems on\r\nnatural, human or managed systems.\r\n(Table SM16.23)"


id: 273edc4f9bd9947735a94b2fdd24b4c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4071
content:
"Impact attribution: Observed im\u0002pacts of long-term changes in the\r\nclimate-related systems on natural,\r\nhuman, or managed systems.\r\n(Table SM16.22)"


id: 32dad1a2a643f1d3eadafb3a1a293657
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6212
content:
"We document implemented adaptation-related responses that \r\ncould directly reduce risk. Adaptation as a process is more broadly \r\ncovered in Chapter 17 (Section  17.4.2), including risk management, \r\ndecision making, planning, feasibility (see Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB \r\nin Chapter 18), legislation and learning. Here, we focus on a subset \r\nof adaptation activities: adaptation-related responses of species, \r\necosystems, and human societies that have been implemented, \r\nobserved, and could directly reduce risk. We consider all adaptation\u0002related responses to assumed, perceived or expected climate risk, \r\nregardless of whether or not impacts or risks have been formally \r\nattributed to climate change."


id: b82ea5c765771928b978e383c90cb02b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29617
content:
"We use the term 'adaptation-related responses', recognising \r\nthat not all responses reduce risk. While 'adaptation' implies risk \r\nreduction, we use the broader term 'responses' to reflect that responses \r\nmay decrease risk, but in some cases may increase risk."


id: 2043fa6f92dbb9c86ab21dcfb06eaf6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2892
content:
"It is not currently possible to conduct a comprehensive global assessment \r\nof effectiveness, adequacy or the contribution of adaptation-related \r\nresponses to changing risk owing to an absence of robust empirical \r\nliterature. This constrains assessment of adaptation progress and gaps \r\nin the context of over-shoot scenarios. Given limited evidence to inform \r\ncomprehensive global assessment of effectiveness and adequacy, we \r\nassess evidence that adaptation responses in human systems indicate \r\ntransformational change. Chapter 17 considers adaptation planning \r\nand governance, including adaptation solutions, success, and feasibility \r\nassessment (Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18), discussed further \r\nin Box 16.2 (also see Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in Chapter 17)."


id: 79e935f0b1aaa720f58b100157fb427f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18651
content:
"In natural ecosystems or species, detectable changes can be \r\nconsidered as 'impact' or 'response'. The distinction between \r\n'observed impacts' (Section 16.2) and 'observed responses' (Section 16.3) \r\nis not always clear. For example, autonomous distributional shifts in \r\nwild species induced by increasing temperatures (an observed impact) \r\nmay reduce risk to the species (an autonomous adaptation response), \r\nbut this process can be enhanced or supported by human intervention \r\nsuch as intentional changes in land use. Observed autonomous changes \r\nin natural ecosystems or species unsupported by human intervention \r\nare treated as impacts (see Section 16.2)."


id: b62ac0e63a93d2ab29b6f4d132811cb6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29272
content:
"The literature that seeks to assess adaptation progress is growing \r\nat the global (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021a), regional (Bowen and Ebi, \r\n2015; England et al., 2018; Robinson, 2018a; Wirehn, 2018; Olazabal \r\net al., 2019; Thomas et al., 2019a; Biesbroek et al., 2020; Canosa et al., \r\n2020; Robinson, 2020b), national (Hegger et al., 2017; Lesnikowski \r\net al., 2019a; Lesnikowski et al., 2019b) and municipal (Araos et al., "


id: 98180bc2558cdfa2272c70087f6b9260
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23972
content:
"2016; Reckien et al., 2018; Reckien et al., 2019; Lesnikowski et al., \r\n2020; Singh et  al., 2021) levels, using National Communications \r\n(Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala, 2007; Lesnikowski et  al., 2015; \r\nMuchuru and Nhamo, 2017), local climate change action plans \r\n(Regmi et al., 2016b; Regmi et al., 2016a; Reckien et al., 2018; Reckien \r\net al., 2019), adaptation project proposals, and reported adaptations \r\nin the peer-reviewed literature. There remains persistent publication \r\nbias in the evidence base on adaptation given the difficulty of \r\nintegrating diverse knowledge sources (see Section 16.3.3). To better \r\nassess how adaptation is occurring in human systems, we draw on \r\nthis literature base and characterise evidence of adaptation across "


id: 4052000c27179e7e110d6af5b861936d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8510
content:
"regions and sectors in terms of five key questions (Table 16.4, Ford \r\net  al., 2013; Biagini et  al., 2014; Ford et  al., 2015a; Bednar and \r\nHenstra, 2018; Reckien et  al., 2018; Tompkins et  al., 2018): What \r\ntypes of hazards are motivating adaptation-related responses? Who \r\nis responding? What types of responses are being documented? What \r\nevidence is available on adaptation effectiveness, adequacy and \r\nrisk reduction? To characterise evidence that adaptation responses \r\nindicate transformation, we use a typology based on four dimensions \r\nof climate adaptation: scope, depth, speed, and consideration of limits \r\nto adaptation (Section 16.4, Termeer et al., 2017; Berrang-Ford et al., \r\n2021a)."


id: ce572442a1ad161a2fbd3f9e7826d7b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33642
content:
"Figure 16.3 |  Salience of different types of hazards in the scientific literature on adaptation-related responses (i.e., responses that people undertake to \r\nreduce risk from climate change and associated hazards). Updated from a systematic review of 1682 scientific publications (2013-2019) reporting on adaptation-related \r\nresponses in human systems (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021a). Numbers in table reflect the number of publications reporting. Darker colours denote more extensive reporting on a hazard \r\nas a motivating factor for the response. Publications are counted in all relevant regions or sectors."


id: a58720704b1ff7538c03ae7ca7fa1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26352
content:
"Individuals and households play a central role in adaptation \r\nglobally. The most frequently reported actors engaged in adaptation\u0002related responses in the scientific literature are individuals and \r\nhouseholds, particularly in the Global South (Figure 16.4). Regionally, \r\nhousehold- and individual-level adaptation is documented most \r\nextensively in Africa and Asia, and to a lesser but still substantial \r\nextent in North America (Figure 16.4)."


id: b9a8585e733a08fb01e8cb54d7ab57e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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vector_id: 29875
content:
"Figure 16.4 |  Who is responding, by geographic region and sector? Cell contents indicate the number of publications reporting engagement of each actor \r\nin adaptation-related responses. Darker colours denote a high number of publications. Based on a systematic review of 1682 scientific publications (2013-2019) reporting on \r\nadaptation-related responses in human systems (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021a). SIS, Small Island States; Terr, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems."


id: 5fa6f8e45f37f3ef4821854d2440972c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14139
content:
"are more frequently reported in cites than other sectors. Institutional \r\nadaptation may be particularly subject to reporting bias, however, with \r\nmany institutional responses likely to be reported in the grey literature \r\n(see Chapter 17). Nature-based solutions are less frequently reported, \r\nexcept in Africa, where they are relatively well documented, and in \r\nthe content of terrestrial systems where reports included species \r\nregeneration projects, wind breaks, erosion control, reforestation and \r\nriparian zone management (Munji et  al., 2014; Partey et  al., 2017; \r\nMuthee et al., 2018)."


id: 6def87315696f8839a18db96e434af9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16605
content:
"pests and salinity (Arku, 2013; Kattumuri et  al., 2017; Wheeler and \r\nMarning, 2019). Studies in Africa and Asia have documented shifts in \r\nfarming and animal husbandry practice (Arku, 2013; Garcia de Jalon \r\net al., 2016; Gautier et al., 2016; Chengappa et al., 2017; Epule et al., \r\n2017; Kattumuri et al., 2017; Abu and Reed, 2018; Asadu et al., 2018; \r\nHaeffner et al., 2018; Shaffril et al., 2018; Wiederkehr et al., 2018; Zinia \r\nand McShane, 2018; Currenti et al., 2019; Fischer, 2019a; Fischer, 2019b; \r\nSchofield and Gubbels, 2019; Sereenonchai and Arunrat, 2019; Wheeler \r\nand Marning, 2019; Mayanja et  al., 2020). In Small Island Nations, \r\nstudies have documented household flood protections measures \r\nsuch as raising elevation of homes and yards, creating flood barriers, \r\nimproving drainage, moving belongings and, in some cases, relocating \r\n(Middelbeek et al., 2014; Currenti et al., 2019; Klock and Nunn, 2019)."


id: 3a63fb4df016ef9b9df11f6327770d74
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7477
content:
"Some but not all adaptation-related responses are engaging \r\nvulnerable populations in planning or implementation (high \r\nconfidence) (Araos et  al., 2021). Consideration of vulnerable \r\npopulations is most frequently focused on low-income populations \r\nand women through the inclusion of informal or formal institutions or \r\nrepresentatives in adaptation planning, or through targeted adaptations \r\nto reduce risk in these populations (high confidence). Consideration of \r\nvulnerable groups in adaptation responses is more frequently reported \r\nin the Global South (medium confidence). Engagement in adaptation \r\nplanning of vulnerable elderly, migrants, and ethnic minorities remains \r\nlow across all global regions (medium confidence). There is negligible \r\nliterature on consideration of disabled peoples in planning and \r\nimplementation of adaptation-related responses (medium confidence)."


id: 2d976f46cf05a49acac0c9ed77a3e683
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5315
content:
"Despite a lack of systematic methods for assessing general adaptation \r\neffectiveness, there is some evidence of risk reduction for particular \r\nplaces and hazards, especially flood and heat vulnerability. There is some \r\nevidence of a reduction in global vulnerability, particularly for flood risk \r\n(Jongman et al., 2015; Tanoue et al., 2016; Miao, 2019) and extreme \r\nheat (Bobb et al., 2014; Boeckmann and Rohn, 2014; Gasparrini et al., \r\n2015; Arbuthnott et al., 2016; Chung et al., 2017; Sheridan and Allen, "


id: 3b99bac8391e44310d4916f49706c98b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7674
content:
"Figure 16.5 |  Type of adaptation responses by global region. Percentages reflect the number of articles mentioning each type of adaptation over the total number of \r\narticles for that region. Radar values do not total 100% per region since publications frequently report multiple types of adaptation; for example, construction of drainage systems \r\n(infrastructural), changing food storage practices by households (behavioural), and planting of tree cover in flood-prone areas (nature-based) in response to flood risk to agricultural \r\ncrops. Data updated and adapted from Berrang-Ford et al. (2021a), based on 1682 scientific publications reporting on adaptation-related responses in human systems."


id: b52ee7f967b45ab96d6afb99239990ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29114
content:
"result in reduced climate risk (effectiveness), but these reductions may \r\nbe insufficient to offset the level of risk and avoid loss and damages. \r\nFeasibility reflects the degree to which climate responses are possible \r\nor desirable, and integrates consideration of potential effectiveness. A \r\nfeasibility assessment drawing on these methods is presented in Cross\u0002Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18."


id: 83e05a571dbaf621336141c398c7e5d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20347
content:
"Global adaptation is predominantly slow, siloed and incremental with \r\nlittle evidence of transformative adaptation (high confidence). In the \r\nabsence of a general method to assess the adequacy of adaptation \r\nactions, we assessed evidence for transformational adaptation \r\ndocumented in peer-reviewed publications identified by a global \r\nstock-taking initiative (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021b) and in other AR6 \r\nchapters (2-15) (see Supplemental Material, SM16.1 for details). \r\n'Transformational adaptation' refers to the degree to which adaptations \r\nhave been implemented widely (scope), reflect major shifts (depth), \r\noccur rapidly (speed) and challenge limits to adaptation (limits, Pelling \r\net al., 2015; Few et al., 2017; Termeer et al., 2017, Table 16.1)."


id: 47419a40baa173b1850ca46e00b1837e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9739
content:
"Table 16.1 |  Evidence of transformational adaptation assessed across four components (depth, scope, speed and limits). Transformational adaptation does not imply adequacy \r\nor effectiveness of adaptation (low transformation may be sufficient for some climate risks, and high transformation may be insufficient to offset others). Nevertheless, these \r\ncomponents provide a systematic framework for tracking adaptation progress and assessing the state of adaptation-related responses. The 'high' categories across each component \r\nreflect more transformative scenarios. Methods are described in SM16.1."


id: fc32146afc0d6f6d92f3ad808c1e9b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41738
content:
"  Evidence of transformative adaptation by sector and region. Evidence of transformational adaptation does not imply effectiveness, equity or adequacy. \r\nnsformative adaptation is assessed based on the scope, speed, depth and ability to challenge limits of responses reported in the scientific literature (see Supplementary \r\nethods). Studies relevant to multiple regions or sectors are included in assessment for each relevant sector/region."


id: 94b73de913ee9e02efff4ed08177fda6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23371
content:
"numerous aspects of life. National policies are more likely to be broad \r\nin scope (Puthucherril et al., 2014), although they frequently focus on \r\na single sector and are therefore still limited. The speed of adaptation \r\nis rarely noted explicitly, but the average speed documented in the \r\nliterature is slow (medium confidence) (Cross-Chapter Box  FEASIB in \r\nChapter 18). Adaptation efforts frequently encounter either soft or hard \r\nlimits (see Section 16.4), but there is limited evidence to suggest these \r\nlimits are being challenged or overcome (medium confidence)."


id: f6dbe1a87204a619fc6eef082f2cd49d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40801
content:
"but these are rare. In general, adaptations that are broad in scope \r\ntend to be slow (medium confidence), suggesting that achieving high \r\ntransformation in all four categories (depth, scope, speed and limits) \r\nmay be particularly challenging or even involve trade-offs."


id: fbdb02a19ee6341fd1767bf2f6f1993f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41675
content:
"There is increasing reporting of maladaptation globally \r\n(Table  16.2, Section  17.5.1) (high confidence). Maladaptation \r\nhas been particularly reported in the context of agricultural, forestry \r\nand fisheries practices, migration in the Global South, and some \r\ninfrastructure-based interventions. Urban heat adaptations have \r\nbeen linked to maladaptation that increase health risks and/or energy "


id: 35902f08eded33c159e4f9ed0b1f1908
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6679
content:
"Few documented responses are simultaneously widespread, rapid \r\nand novel (high confidence). Some examples exist, such as village \r\nrelocations or creation of new multi-stakeholder resource governance \r\nsystems (Schwan and Yu, 2018; McMichael and Katonivualiku, 2020), "


id: 65f5b2bbe59e04e610ccd145c0059042
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"et  al., 2015; Wichelns, 2016; Kongsager, 2018; Debray et  al., 2019; \r\nLoboguerrero et al., 2019; Morecroft et al., 2019; Chausson et al., 2020) \r\nas well as in the urban built environment (Perrotti and Stremke, 2020; \r\nSharifi, 2020). Evidence on co-benefits of implemented responses for \r\nother SDG priority areas is less developed, however, in the areas of \r\neducation, gender inequality and reduced inequalities, clean water \r\nand sanitation, industry, innovation and infrastructure, consumption \r\nand production, marine and coastal ecosystem protection, and peace, \r\njustice, and strong institutions. This indicates a gap between some \r\nassumed likely co-benefits of adaptation and empirical evidence on \r\nthe realisation of these co-benefits within the context of implemented \r\nadaptation responses (Berga, 2016; Froehlich et  al., 2018; Gattuso \r\net al., 2018; Morris et al., 2018; Chausson et al., 2020; Karlsson et al., \r\n2020; Krauss and Osland, 2020)."


id: fc0588e394e8b7d5e56f0287e07db49a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41699
content:
"consumption. Heat poses significant risks to the evolutionary tolerance \r\nlevels of humans, animals and crops (Asseng et  al., 2021), and \r\ncurrent adaptation interventions for reducing urban heat like cool or \r\nevaporation roofs and street trees may be insufficient to reduce heat\u0002related vulnerabilities in some urban areas at higher levels of warming \r\n(Krayenhoff et al., 2018) (see also Section 16.4 on adaptation limits). \r\nThere is evidence that autonomous adaptation by individuals and \r\nhouseholds can shift risk to others, with net increases in vulnerability. \r\nIntensification of pasture use as a coping response to climate-induced \r\ndrought has been observed to increase risks to livestock reproduction \r\nand human life expectancy due to overgrazing, suggesting responses \r\nto pastoral vulnerability can cross tolerance limits for animals, humans \r\nand food available for foraging (Suvdantsetseg et al., 2017)."


id: 93fcf62eaf1ee5d9cb20c8e1b83db334
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23238
content:
"Evidence on realised co-benefits of implemented adaptation responses \r\nwith other priorities in the SDGs is emerging among the areas of \r\npoverty reduction, food security, health and well-being, terrestrial and \r\nfreshwater ecosystem services, sustainable cities and communities, \r\nenergy security, work and economic growth, and mitigation (Table 16.2) \r\n(high confidence). Evidence on co-benefits of adaptation for mitigation \r\nis particularly strong, and is observed in various agricultural, forestry \r\nand land use management practices like agroforestry, climate-smart \r\nagriculture and afforestation (Kremen and Miles, 2012; Christen and \r\nDalgaard, 2013; Mbow et  al., 2014; Locatelli et  al., 2015; Suckall "


id: 9fc55165a02b8c7ecc39660c64a2a610
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25315
content:
"Many adaptation responses are not documented, and reporting \r\nbias is a key challenge for assessment of observed responses. Evidence \r\nof absence (i.e., where no adaptations are occurring) is different from \r\nabsence of evidence (where responses are occurring but are not \r\ndocumented), with implications for understanding trends in global \r\nresponses."


id: 6224923a858f090218eaca5268b57c72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14540
content:
"Table 16.2 |  Observed examples of maladaptation and co-benefits from adaptation-related responses in human systems."


id: 83d8dbf14f6e63245f9ff3db22a76f67
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vector_id: 20340
content:
"Su et al. (2017);Aziz and Sadok (2015);Bhatta and \r\nAggarwal (2016);Clay and King (2019); Elagib \r\net al. (2017);Gao and Mills (2018); Kattumuri et al. \r\n(2017); Magnan et al. (2016); Ofoegbu et al. (2016); \r\nRademacher-Schulz et al. (2014);Rademacher-Schulz \r\net al. (2014);Wiederkehr et al. (2018); Yegbemey et al. \r\n(2017); Yila and Resurreccion (2013); Nizami et al. \r\n(2019); Mersha and Van Laerhoven (2016); Ojha et al. \r\n(2014); Radel et al. (2018); Gioli et al. (2014); Hooli \r\n(2016); Koubi et al. (2016)"


id: c14596ce1088ebf0df48c5f03d75ffe2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31305
content:
"Monnereau and Abraham (2013); Maldonado et al. \r\n(2014); Pritchard and Thielemans (2014); Averchenkova \r\net al. (2016); Lei et al. (2017); Barnett and McMichael \r\n(2018); Currenti et al. (2019)"


id: 811f02731b5e2a416a6f5ebcc114b29e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
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vector_id: 19853
content:
"Box PROGRESS in Chapter 17). Van Bavel, for example, found that the \r\ninvolvement of local and diverse knowledge can improve the detection \r\n(medium confidence) and attribution (medium confidence) of health \r\nimpacts, and improve the action (high confidence) (Van Bavel et al., 2020)."


id: 77dba953a2c98d73c030dffbf0950a14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18295
content:
"Adaptation is being reported differently across different sources \r\nof knowledge. The peer-reviewed literature, for example, has been \r\nprimarily reporting reactive adaptation at the individual, household \r\nand community levels, while the grey literature has been more mixed, \r\nreporting adaptation across governmental levels and civil society, with \r\nless focus on individuals and households (Ford et al., 2015a; Ford and \r\nKing, 2015). Synthesis of impacts and responses within the private \r\nsector is particularly limited (Averchenkova et al., 2016; Minx et al., \r\n2017), further suggesting that knowledge accumulation on climate \r\nresponses has been particularly slow, and that more robust evidence\r\nsynthesis is required to fill key knowledge gaps."


id: 4a5a9e46a1298c7e779751720b7f7fdf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10321
content:
"A new development since AR5, there is now growing evidence \r\nassessing progress on adaptation across sectors, geographies and \r\nspatial scales. Uncertainty persists around what defines adaptation \r\nand how to measure it (Cross-Chapter Box  FEASIB in Chapter 18, \r\nUNEP, 2021). As a result, most literature synthesising responses is \r\nbased on documented or reported adaptations only, and is thus subject \r\nto substantial reporting bias."


id: e28b6d866dc36efc1f2f641a469eba10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37161
content:
"The potential for under-reporting is most acute in the context \r\nof minorities and remote and marginalised groups, who are often \r\nalso the most affected by the impacts of climate change and least able \r\nto respond to, or benefit from, the responses to climate change (Araos \r\net al., 2021). Deficits in reporting on impacts and responses are well \r\nrecognised in the Global South, among vulnerable populations (e.g., \r\nwomen, socioeconomically disadvantaged, Indigenous, people living \r\nwith disabilities) and within civil society (ibid.)."


id: ebf99be44c3b1e72cc9db8ea5a8c8cab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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vector_id: 38881
content:
"We document implemented adaptation-related responses that \r\ncould directly reduce risk. Adaptation as a process is more broadly \r\ncovered in Chapter 17 (Section  17.4.2), including risk management, \r\ndecision making, planning, feasibility (see Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB \r\nin Chapter 18), legislation and learning. Here, we focus on a subset \r\nof adaptation activities: adaptation-related responses of species, \r\necosystems, and human societies that have been implemented and \r\nobserved, and could directly reduce risk. We consider all adaptation\u0002related responses to assumed, perceived or expected climate risk, \r\nregardless of whether or not impacts or risks have been formally \r\nattributed to climate change."


id: d92716603ae68580c91519e168814c3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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vector_id: 35502
content:
"There is growing support for more comprehensive and systematic \r\napproaches to assess adaptation progress (Berrang-Ford et al., 2015; \r\nFord et al., 2015a; Ford and King, 2015; Ford and Berrang-Ford, 2016; \r\nBiesbroek et al., 2018). Since the AR5, there is increased recognition of \r\nthe value of integrating diverse knowledge sources to fill knowledge \r\ngaps in observation of impacts and responses (Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter "


id: d5224fdc828197398bee9241d7051981
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
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vector_id: 34821
content:
"We use the term 'adaptation-related responses', recognising \r\nthat not all responses reduce risk. While 'adaptation' implies risk "


id: d95a7c0c819a1402c1fc69dadc450311
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
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vector_id: 35542
content:
"but this process can be enhanced or supported by human intervention \r\nsuch as intentional changes in land use. Observed autonomous changes \r\nin natural ecosystems or species unsupported by human intervention \r\nare treated as impacts (see Section 16.2)."


id: 105a780a5a77a0597db4585245b94ea7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 67
content:
"reduction, we use the broader term 'responses' to reflect that responses \r\nmay decrease risk, but in some cases may increase risk."


id: 9011b4afe4bc94beb300799420033396
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22554
content:
"Given limited evidence to inform comprehensive global assessment \r\nof effectiveness and adequacy, we assess evidence that adaptation \r\nresponses in human systems indicate transformational change. \r\nChapter 17 considers adaptation planning and governance, including \r\nadaptation solutions, success, and feasibility assessment (Cross\u0002Chapter Box  FEASIB in Chapter 18). It is not currently possible to \r\nconduct a comprehensive global assessment of effectiveness, adequacy \r\nor the contribution of adaptation-related responses to changing risk \r\ndue to an absence of robust empirical literature (discussed further in \r\nCross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in Chapter 17)."


id: d9ea030981f4c3caa44dfa2d6f5f1a7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35637
content:
"In natural ecosystems or species, detectable changes can be \r\nconsidered as 'impact' or 'response'. The distinction between \r\n'observed impacts' (Section 16.2) and 'observed responses' (Section 16.3) \r\nis not always clear. For example, autonomous distributional shifts in \r\nwild species induced by increasing temperatures (an observed impact) \r\nmay reduce risk to the species (an autonomous adaptation response), "


id: 55456919fc8b64a4859c14b84d7e93d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12282
content:
"Our world today is characterised by a high degree of interconnectedness and globalisation which establish pathways for the transmission \r\nof climate-related risks across sectors and borders (high confidence) (Challinor et al., 2018; Hedlund et al., 2018). While the IPCC 5th \r\nAssessment Report (AR5) has pointed to this connection of risks across regions as 'cross-regional phenomena' (Hewitson et al., 2014), \r\nonly a few countries so far have integrated inter-regional aspects into their climate change risks assessments (Liverman, 2016; Surminski \r\net al., 2016; Adams et al., 2020), and adaptation is still framed as a predominantly national or local issue (Dzebo and Stripple, 2015; \r\nBenzie and Persson, 2019)."


id: b680b56591331dbdbe2674b9eaba364d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content_type: text
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content:
"Climate risks can also spread through global financial markets (Mandel et al., 2021). For the case of coastal and riverine flooding with low \r\nadaptation 2080 (RCP 8.5-SSP5), the financial system is projected to amplify direct losses by a factor of 2 (global average), but reach up \r\nto a factor of 10 for countries that are central financial hubs (Mandel et al., 2021, Figure 13.28). Indirect impacts may also arise through \r\nindirect effects on foreign direct investment, remittance flows and official development assistance (Hedlund et al., 2018)."


id: 855c2e63fc4536de77956e633b454535
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20599
content:
"The global supply of agricultural products is concentrated to a few main breadbaskets (Bren d'Amour et al., 2016; Gaupp et al., 2020, \r\nChapter 5). For instance, Central and South America is one of the regions with the highest potential to increase food supplies to more \r\ndensely populated regions in Asia, the Middle East and Europe (Chapter 12). The exports of agricultural commodities (coffee, bananas, \r\nsugar, soybean, corn, sugarcane, beef livestock) have gained importance in the past two decades as international trade and globalisation \r\nof markets have shaped the global agri-food system (Chapter 5)."


id: 32ac4c9f5021f06e55999838c064f15c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6180
content:
"The spatial distributions of species on land and in the oceans are shifting due to climate change, with these changes projected to \r\naccelerate at higher levels of global warming (Pecl et al., 2017). These 'species on the move' have large effects on ecosystems and human \r\nwell-being, and present challenges for governance (Pecl et al., 2017). For example, the number of transboundary fish stocks is projected to \r\nincrease as key fisheries species are displaced by ocean warming (Pinsky et al., 2018). Conflict over shifting mackerel fisheries has already \r\noccurred between European countries (Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017), because few regulatory bodies have clear policies on shifting stocks; \r\nthis leaves species open to unsustainable exploitation in new waters in the absence of regularly updated catch allocations to reflect \r\nchanging stock distributions (Caddell, 2018)."


id: 587044880c0f001e0e38a3d09e7a8138
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12808
content:
"Human health will also be affected as vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue shift geographic distributions (Caminade et al., \r\n2014). There is also evidence that many warm-adapted invasive species, such as invasive freshwater cyanobacterium, have spread to \r\nhigher latitudes because of climate change (Chapter 2)."


id: 8739e11e528805b611a8d847fc700ea6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20954
content:
"Adaptation responses to reduce inter-regional risks can be implemented at a range of scales: at the point of the initial climate change \r\nimpact (e.g., assistance for recovery after an extreme event, development of resilient infrastructure, climate-smart technologies for \r\nagriculture); at or along the pathway via which impacts are transmitted to the eventual recipient (e.g., trade diversification, re-routing \r\nof transport); in the recipient country (e.g., increasing storage to buffer supply disruptions), or by third parties (e.g., adaptation finance, \r\ntechnology transfer) (Bren d'Amour et  al., 2016; Carter et  al., 2021; Talebian et  al., 2021). A knowledge gap exits on the need for, \r\neffectiveness of, and limits to adaptation under different socioeconomic and land use futures."


id: a8249959782e187488c611c452d8ad8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26799
content:
"Due to regional and global interdependencies, climate resilience has a global, multi-level public good character (Banda, 2018). The \r\nbenefits of adaptation are therefore shared beyond the places where adaptation is initially implemented. Conversely, adaptation may \r\nbe successful at a local level while redistributing vulnerability elsewhere or even driving or exacerbating risks in other places (Atteridge \r\nand Remling, 2018). International cooperation is therefore needed to ensure that inter-regional effects are considered in adaptation and \r\nthat adaptation efforts are coordinated to avoid maladaptation. However, regional- and global-scale governance of adaptation is only \r\njust beginning to emerge (Persson, 2019)."


id: c814824524484e9a68d7a3d7c3a18d79
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32512
content:
"The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement frames adaptation as a 'global challenge' \r\n(Article 7.2) and establishes the global goal on adaptation (Article 7.1), which provides space for dialogue between parties on the "


id: 3b8e5ac17dbfa6199e633493c4bf9b46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7662
content:
"global-scale challenge of adaptation and the need for renewed political and financial investment in adaptation, including to address \r\ninter-regional effects (Benzie et al., 2018)."


id: 470f98b127cc9a53b00a51d3ed588b33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9705
content:
"National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) can evolve to consider inter-regional effects as well as domestic ones (Liverman, 2016; Surminski et al., \r\n2016; European Environment, 2020). Regional and international coordination of NAPs, coupled with building capacities and addressing \r\nexisting knowledge gaps at the country level, can help to ensure that resources are oriented towards reducing inter-regional risks and \r\nbuilding systemic resilience to climate change globally (Booth et al., 2020; Wijenayake et al., 2020)."


id: 7bd7d4b39596b05cf02829683874dce5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19000
content:
"Given the important role of private actors in managing inter-regional climate risks (Goldstein et al., 2019; Tenggren et al., 2019), efforts \r\nwill be needed to align public and private strategies for managing inter-regional climate risks to avoid maladaptation and ensure just and \r\nequitable adaptation at different scales (Talebian et al., 2021)."


id: a0cbdc68839dc313a193a90c0db0742
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25502
content:
"Constraints to adaptation (also called barriers) are factors that make \r\nit harder to plan and implement adaptation actions, such as limited \r\nfinancial resources, ineffective institutional arrangements or insufficient \r\nhuman capacity. Soft limits are mostly associated with human systems, \r\ndue in part to the role of human agency in addressing constraints. \r\nFor natural systems, the magnitude and rate of climate change and \r\ncapacity of adaptation to such change largely determine the type of \r\nlimit. Hard limits are largely associated with natural systems and are \r\nmostly due to inability to adapt to biophysical changes."


id: c45389d50079cf16b30d016a9d68a511
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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vector_id: 31835
content:
"This section builds on previous IPCC Reports (i.e., AR5, SR15, SROCC, \r\nSRCCL) to advance concepts and emphasise remaining gaps in \r\nunderstanding about limits to adaptation. We provide case studies to \r\nillustrate these concepts and synthesise regional and sectoral limits \r\nto adaptation across natural and human systems that informs key \r\nrisks (Section 16.5) and RFCs (Section 16.6). We also identify residual \r\nrisks--risks that remain after efforts to reduce hazards, vulnerability \r\nand/or exposure--associated with limits to adaptation."


id: 43ccea70d68f20646305d306e576449c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Using this understanding of limits, subsequent Special Reports have \r\nassessed relevant literature (Mechler et  al., 2020). SR15 identifies \r\nseveral regions, sectors and ecosystems--including coral reefs, \r\nbiodiversity, human health, coastal livelihoods, Small Island Developing \r\nStates, and the Arctic--that are projected to experience limits at either \r\n1.5degC or 2degC. SRCCL states that land degradation due to climate \r\nchange may result in limits to adaptation being reached in coastal \r\nregions and areas affected by thawing permafrost. SROCC details \r\nthat risks of climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere may \r\nresult in limits for ecosystems and vulnerable communities in coral reef \r\nenvironments, urban atoll islands and low-lying Arctic locations before \r\nthe end of this century in case of high-emissions scenarios."


id: 4fac1c98f907d38587f4afcefb6af29e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11306
content:
"AR5 introduced the concept of limits to adaptation and provided \r\na functional definition that has been used in subsequent Special \r\nReports (SR15, SROCC, SRCCL) and is also used for AR6 (see also \r\nChapter 1)."


id: bc22b62a62fb60ec834b1fa876785a19
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"A limit is defined as the point at which an actor's objectives or system's \r\nneeds cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions \r\n(Klein et al., 2014). Tolerable risks are those where adaptation needed \r\nto keep risk within reasonable levels is possible, while intolerable \r\nrisks are those where practicable or affordable adaptation options to \r\navoid unreasonable risks are unavailable. This highlights that limits to \r\nadaptation are socially constructed and based on values that determine \r\nlevels of reasonable or unreasonable risk as well as on available \r\nadaptation options, which vary greatly across and within societies."


id: 2c4fdec2c0a33f9296ea2b09b021b53e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Limits are categorised as being either 'soft' or 'hard'. Soft limits may \r\nchange over time as additional adaptation options that are practicable \r\nor affordable become available. Hard limits will not change over time as \r\nno additional adaptive actions are possible. When a limit is exceeded, \r\nthen intolerable risk may materialise and the actor's objectives or \r\nsystem's needs may be either abandoned or transformed (Box 16.2)."


id: 49cf6dd67b92b8ec986f112b33480657
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"For human systems, soft and hard limits are largely distinguished by \r\nwhether or not constraints to adaptation are able to be overcome. "


id: 5608c7b11d35b59a62a9e137220b2917
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Here we provide example case studies to highlight constraints that \r\nmay lead to soft limits, potential incremental and transformational \r\nadaptation options that may overcome soft limits, evidence of hard \r\nlimits, and residual risks."


id: 16d8d86977a8b2105eec98a4266f6ea8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1235
content:
"Retreat and relocation constitute transformative adaptation options, \r\nalthough evidence of permanent community-scale relocation in \r\nresponse to climate change remains limited at present (Kelman, 2015; \r\nMcNamara and Des Combes, 2015). Material and emotional cost of \r\nemigration as well as loss of homeland, nationhood, and other intangible \r\nassets and values imply that relocation is generally considered a last \r\nresort (Jamero et al., 2017) and may mean abandoning objectives of \r\nremaining in existing locations, hence exceeding adaptation limits."


id: a66ac91d6a57dfc8010e065979626389
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"In Bangladesh, small and landless farm households are already \r\napproaching soft limits in adapting to riverbank erosion (Alam et al., \r\n2018). While wealthier farming households can implement a range \r\nof adaptation responses, including changing planting times and \r\ncultivating different crops, poorer households have limited access \r\nto financial institutions and credit to implement such measures. \r\nTheir adaptation responses of shifting to homestead gardening and \r\nanimal rearing are insufficient to maintain their livelihoods, and these \r\nhouseholds are more likely to engage in off-farm work or migrate."


id: d9dc72261cdfa13e60a944fca379b90
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vector_id: 35627
content:
"Hard limits in SIDS are mostly due to adaptation being unable to \r\nprevent intolerable risks from escalating climate hazards such as \r\nSLR and related risks of flooding and surges, severe tropical cyclones, \r\nand contamination of groundwater. Emerging evidence suggests that \r\nshortage of water and land degradation have already contributed to \r\nmigration of multiple island communities in the Pacific (Handmer and \r\nNalau, 2019)."


id: 3d83f554fe8e4158c4b8e8ee95eb4ffe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7996
content:
"Residual risks for SIDS include loss of marine and terrestrial biodiversity \r\nand ecosystem services, increased food and water insecurity, \r\ndestruction of settlements and infrastructure, loss of cultural resources \r\nand heritage, collapse of economies and livelihoods, and reduced \r\nhabitability of islands (Section 3.5.1, Section 15.3)."


id: bc1f40c18dc0d6dd4690a43f3e3279fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30334
content:
"In terms of hard limits, the rate and extent of climate change is critical \r\nas agriculture is climate-dependent and sensitive to changes in climate \r\nparameters. Poudel and Duex (2017) document that over 70% of the \r\nsprings used as water sources in Nepalese mountain agricultural \r\ncommunities had a decreased flow, and approximately 12% had dried \r\nup over the past decade. While there are some adaptation measures to \r\naddress reduced water availability--such as the introduction of water\u0002saving irrigation technology among Beijing farmers to alleviate water \r\nscarcity in metropolitan suburbs (Zhang et al., 2019)--these actions \r\nstill depend on some level of water availability. If climate hazards \r\nintensify to the point where water supply cannot meet agricultural \r\ndemands, hard limits to adaptation will occur."


id: 54f1beeb6c8a33c27137aac2b22f669d
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vector_id: 12215
content:
"Residual risks associated with agriculture in Asia include declines \r\nin fisheries, aquaculture and crop production, particularly in South \r\nand Southeast Asia (Section  10.3.5), increased food insecurity \r\n(Section  10.4.5), reductions of farmers' incomes by up to 25% \r\n(Section 10.4.5), loss of production areas (Section 10.4.5) and reduced \r\nphysical work capacity for farmers--between 5% and 15% decline in \r\nsouth-southwest Asia and China under RCP8.5 (Section 5.12.4)."


id: 51a31f1e98519940ecc82d960b59994c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11643
content:
"There is high agreement and medium evidence that there are limits to \r\nadaptation across regions and sectors. However, much of the available \r\nevidence focuses on constraints that may lead to limits at some \r\npoint with little detailed information on how limits may be related \r\nto different levels of socioeconomic or environmental change (high \r\nconfidence). Figure 16.7 assesses evidence on constraints and limits \r\nfor broad categories of region and sector. Small islands and Central \r\nand South America show most evidence of constraints being linked to \r\nadaptation limits across sectors, while ocean and coastal ecosystems \r\nand health, well-being and communities show most evidence of \r\nconstraints being linked to limits across regions (medium confidence)."


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content:
"For livelihoods dependent on small-scale rain-fed agriculture in Africa, \r\nclimate hazards include floods and droughts. However, governance, \r\nfinancial and information/awareness/technology challenges are \r\nidentified as the most significant constraints leading to soft limits, \r\nfollowed by social and human capacity constraints (Thomas et  al., \r\n2021). Finance and land tenure constraints restrict Ghanaian farmers \r\nwhen considering adaptation responses due to climate variability \r\n(Guodaar et  al., 2017). Similarly, in East Africa, farmers with small \r\npieces of land have limited economic profitability, making it difficult to \r\ninvest in drought and/or flood management measures (Gbegbelegbe \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 18b1a1237695a4333e96c45d45673984
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content:
"There are clusters of evidence with additional details on limits to \r\nadaptation, as detailed in Table 16.3. Evidence on limits to adaptation \r\nis largely focused on terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems, \r\ncoastal communities, water security, agricultural production, and \r\nhuman health and heat (high confidence)."


id: 8e1d2e1071420773266267413c729ddb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Increasing droughts and floods require costlier adaptation responses \r\nto reduce risks, such as using drought-tolerant species (Berhanu and \r\nBeyene, 2015) and coping strategies for flood-prone households \r\n(Schaer, 2015; Musyoki et al., 2016), resulting in soft limits for poorer \r\nhouseholds who cannot afford these responses. In Namibia, weak \r\ngovernance and poor integration of information, such as disregarding \r\nknowledge of urban and rural residents in flood management \r\nstrategies, has resulted in soft limits to adaptation, leading to \r\ntemporary or permanent relocation of communities (Hooli, 2016). \r\nShortage of land--namely high population pressure and small per \r\ncapita land holding--leads to continuous cultivation and results in \r\npoor soil fertility. This low productivity is further aggravated by erratic \r\nrainfall causing soft limits as farmers cannot produce enough and must \r\ndepend on food aid (Asfaw et al., 2019)."


id: 2c5947a645a352509efefd65c0644f70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Beginning at 1.5degC, autonomous and evolutionary adaptation responses \r\nby terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems face hard limits, \r\nresulting in biodiversity decline, species extinction and loss of related \r\nlivelihoods (high confidence). Interventionist adaptation strategies \r\nto reduce risks for species and ecosystems face soft limits due to \r\ngovernance, financial and knowledge constraints (medium confidence)."


id: afbe0ec75b00c9c2f31c9eafe7a11098
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"As sea levels rise and extreme events intensify, coastal communities \r\nface soft limits due to financial, institutional and socioeconomic \r\nconstraints reducing the efficacy of coastal protection and \r\naccommodation approaches and resulting in loss of life and economic \r\ndamages (medium confidence). Hard limits for coastal communities \r\nreliant on nature-based coastal protection will be experienced \r\nbeginning at 1.5degC (medium confidence)."


id: ba91e85752e1d986ad5d3a19712b445
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30039
content:
"Relocation due to flooding is discussed as a transformation \r\nadaptation action taken in Botswana where the government decided \r\nto permanently relocate hundreds of residents to a nearby dryland \r\narea (Shinn et  al., 2014). Some residents permanently relocated, \r\nwhereas others only temporarily relocated against the government's \r\ninstructions. Such relocation processes must attend to micro-politics \r\nand risks of existing systemic issues of inequality and vulnerability."


id: b94929c18363670cb9ea82d1595073c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29806
content:
"Beginning at 3degC, hard limits are projected for water management \r\nmeasures, leading to decreased water quality and availability, negative \r\nimpacts on health and well-being, economic losses in water and energy \r\ndependent sectors and potential migration of communities (medium \r\nconfidence)."


id: 5673e5741e09daaabecb5384ee64cca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12469
content:
"Soft and hard limits for agricultural production are related to water \r\navailability and the uptake and effectiveness of climate-resilient \r\ncrops, which is constrained by socioeconomic and political challenges \r\n(medium confidence)."


id: 308056358e9907c188c0fd117ea61594
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5786
content:
"In terms of hard limits, land scarcity poses a hard limit when \r\nimplementing organic cotton production, an adaptation response \r\nsupporting sustainable livelihoods (Kloos and Renaud, 2014)."


id: c3a97698f0e2f5bacaf0e131c0cc344a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31700
content:
"Adaptation measures to address risks of heat stress, heat mortality and \r\nreduced capacities for outdoor work for humans face soft and hard \r\nlimits across regions beginning at 1.5degC and are particularly relevant \r\nfor regions with warm climates (high confidence)."


id: 316449254bc571ee9d222dc1827ca8d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Residual risks associated with livelihoods in Africa include poorer \r\nhouseholds becoming trapped in cycles of poverty (Section  9.9.3), \r\nincreased rates of rural-urban migration (Section  9.8.4), decline of \r\ntraditional livelihoods such as in agriculture (Sections 9.9.3, 9.11.3.1) \r\nand fisheries (Section 9.11.1.2), and loss of traditional practices and \r\ncultural heritage (Section 9.9.2)."


id: 1e8c3b1cf627cda20e46cf556f687efd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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vector_id: 2580
content:
"Figure 16.7 |  Evidence on constraints and limits to adaptation by region and sector. Data from Thomas et al. (2021), based on 1682 scientific publications reporting \r\non adaptation-related responses in human systems. See SM16.1 for methods. Low evidence: <20% of assessed literature has information on limits; literature mostly focuses on \r\nconstraints to adaptation. Medium evidence: between 20% and 40% of assessed literature has information on limits; literature provides some evidence of constraints being \r\nlinked to limits. High evidence: >40% of assessed literature has information on limits; literature provides broad evidence of constraints being linked to limits."


id: 1b77b6d8ef900baeb3a513aba03f423c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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vector_id: 2014
content:
"5.14.3, 6.4.5, 7.4.2, 8.4.5, 12.5.1, 12.5.2, 15.6.1, 15.6.3, Figure 16.8, \r\nTable 16.4, Section CCP2.4.2). Impacts of climate change may increase \r\nfinancial constraints (high confidence) and contribute to soft limits \r\nto adaptation being reached (medium confidence). Table 16.5 details \r\nclimate impact observations that point to potentially substantial \r\nnegative impacts on the availability of financial resources for different \r\nregions."


id: 2fe2db5251c99ba14576178a52f54385
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5678
content:
"Across regions and sectors, a range of constraints (Figure  16.8) are \r\nidentified as leading to limits to adaptation, particularly financial \r\nconstraints and constraints related to governance, institutions and \r\npolicy (high confidence). While individual constraints may appear \r\nstraightforward to address, the combination of constraints interacting \r\nwith each other leads to soft limits that are difficult to overcome (high \r\nconfidence). The interplay of many different constraints that lead to \r\nlimits makes it difficult to categorise limits beyond being either soft \r\nor hard."


id: 821f815510c9924d411ddc978b0c1823
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20017
content:
"At the national level, negative macroeconomic responses to climate \r\nchange may limit the availability of financial resources, impede access \r\nto financial markets and stunt economic growth (high confidence). \r\nEconomic growth has been shown to decline under higher temperatures \r\n(Burke et al., 2015; Kahn et al., 2019, Section 16.5.2.3.4) and following \r\nextreme events (Hsiang and Jina, 2014; IMF, 2017), particularly for \r\nmedium- and low-income developing countries (Section  18.1). The \r\nmost severe impacts of climate-related disasters on economic growth \r\nper capita have been observed in developing countries, although \r\nauthors note a publication bias in the reporting of negative effects "


id: 4322fa4bde4b91fcef81936d93409dce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9021
content:
"Across regions and sectors, financial constraints are identified as \r\nsignificant and contributing to limits to adaptation, particularly in low\u0002to-middle-income countries (high confidence) (Sections  3.6.3, 4.7.2, "


id: 227f93e6c111f7e1c5f349984e12368d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3286
content:
"Table 16.3 |  Adaptation limits and residual risks for select actors and systems. Asterisks indicate confidence level"


id: d7bda682c5258891a594ab3019f867ae
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35263
content:
"events can also persist in the long term and in multiple dimensions. \r\nExposure to disasters during the first year of life significantly reduces \r\nthe number of years of schooling and increases the chances of being \r\nunemployed as an adult and living in a multidimensionally poor \r\nhousehold (Gonzalez et al., 2021). "


id: 108f6cbd9864bd897b84b1c93b1c0cc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"This section builds on the analogous chapter in AR5 (Oppenheimer \r\net al., 2014) to refine the definition of climate-related key risks (KRs) \r\nand criteria for identifying them (Section 16.5.1), and describe a broad \r\nrange of key risks by sector and region as identified by the authors of \r\nWGII AR6 (Section 16.5.2, SM16.4). Based on this, eight clusters of key \r\nrisks (i.e., Representative Key Risks, RKRs) are identified and assessed \r\nin terms of the conditions under which they would become severe. In \r\naddition, the section assesses variation in KRs and RKRs by the level of \r\nglobal average warming, socioeconomic development pathways, and \r\nlevels of adaptation, and illustrates the implications from resulting \r\ndynamics in all risk dimensions (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) along \r\na case study of densely populated river deltas (Section 16.5.3). Last, \r\ninteractions among RKRs are discussed (Section 16.5.4)."


id: 6c79c51519c94dfb9803b2d3886abd3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16377
content:
"KRs may be defined for a wide variety of systems at a range of scales. \r\nThe broadest definition is for the global human system or planetary \r\necological system, but KRs may also apply to regions, specific sectors \r\nor communities, or to parts of a system rather than to the system as \r\na whole. For example, the population at the lower end of the wealth \r\ndistribution is often impacted by climate change much more severely \r\nthan the rest of the population (Leichenko and Silva, 2014; Hallegatte \r\nand Rozenberg, 2017; Hallegatte et al., 2017; Pelling and Garschagen, \r\n2019)."


id: ed45ee7f207e18e904d148504cf84680
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39121
content:
"KRs are determined not just by the nature of hazards, exposure, \r\nvulnerability and response options, but also by values, which determine \r\nthe importance of a risk. Importance is understood here as the degree of \r\nrelevance to interpreting DAI at a given system's level or scale, and was "


id: 1f0f66bae5e5bd12cb486f54a11960f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2669
content:
"Ability to respond to the risk. Risks are more severe if the affected \r\necosystems or societies have limited ability to reduce hazards (e.g., \r\nfor human systems, through mitigation, ecosystem management \r\nand possibly solar radiation management); to reduce exposure or \r\nvulnerability through various human or ecological adaptation options; \r\nor to cope with or respond to the consequences, should they occur."


id: eb1c76549ae1883f8a2092aa7e5fbb32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"an explicit criterion for identifying key vulnerabilities and risks in AR5 \r\n(Oppenheimer et al., 2014). Because values can vary across individuals, \r\ncommunities or cultures, as well as over time, what constitutes a KR \r\ncan vary widely from the perspective of each of these groups, or across \r\nindividuals. For example, ecosystems providing indirect services and \r\ncultural assets such as historic buildings and archaeological sites may \r\nbe considered very important to preserve by some people but not by \r\nothers; and some types of infrastructure, such as a commuter rail, may \r\nbe important to the well-being of some households but less so to others. \r\nTherefore, Chapter 16 authors do not make their own judgements about \r\nthe importance of particular risks. Instead, we highlight importance as \r\nan overarching factor but identify and evaluate KRs based on four other \r\ncriteria for what may be considered potentially severe."


id: eda87f99f87830ab46f050bb40c19f02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39171
content:
"The relative influence of these different criteria is case-specific and left \r\nto author judgement in the identification of KRs (groups of authors in \r\nregional and sectoral chapters) and the assessment of representative \r\nkey risks (author teams, see SM16.4). But in general, the more criteria \r\nare met, the higher is the risk."


id: 8159ab526b6e40fd3fcc27a18cd51c9b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Magnitude of adverse consequences. Magnitude measures the \r\ndegree to which particular dimensions of a system are affected, \r\nshould the risk materialise. Magnitude can include the size or extent \r\nof the system, the pervasiveness of the consequences across the \r\nsystem (geographically or in terms of affected population), as well \r\nas the degree of consequences. Consequences can be measured by \r\na wide range of characteristics. For example, risks to food security \r\ncan be measured as uncertain consequences for food consumption, \r\naccess or prices. The magnitude of these consequences would be the \r\ndegree of change in these measures induced by climate change and \r\naccounting for the interaction with exposure and vulnerability. In \r\naddition to pervasiveness and degree of change, several other aspects \r\ncan contribute to a judgement of magnitude, although they refer to \r\nconcepts that are difficult to capture and highly context-specific:"


id: 97f3f56ef925d77502ebffe344e97b10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23947
content:
"Irreversibility of consequences. Consequences that are irreversible, at \r\nleast over long time scales, would be considered a higher risk than those \r\nthat are temporary. For example, changes to the prevailing ecosystem in \r\na given location may not be reversible on the decade to century scale."


id: 9626d65357418a39f72e3a7ebc569e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23612
content:
"Potential for impact thresholds or tipping points. Higher risks are \r\nposed by the potential for exceeding a threshold beyond which the \r\nmagnitude or rate of an impact substantially increases."


id: c973b7c8e5a256d4bbba8179c028679e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32766
content:
"Table SM16.24 indicates that climate change presents a wide range of \r\nrisks across scales, sectors and regions that could become severe under \r\nparticular conditions of hazards, exposure and vulnerability, which \r\nmay or may not occur. Some illustrations of the extent and diversity of \r\nKRs are provided here, and more detailed assessment can be found in \r\nthe Chapters referenced in the table."


id: d42f5946401b655e085569a3d2fd22a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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content:
"Potential for cascading effects beyond system boundaries. Higher \r\nrisks are posed by those with the potential to generate downstream \r\ncascading effects to other ecosystems, sectors or population groups \r\nwithin the affected system and/or to another system, whether \r\nneighbouring or distant (Cross-Chapter Box INTEREG in this Chapter)."


id: 88c27868b690115949b840ac49426936
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21223
content:
"Global-scale KRs include threats to biodiversity in oceans, coastal \r\nregions and on land, particularly in biodiversity hotspots, as well as \r\nother ecological risks such as geographic shifts in vegetation, tree \r\nmortality, reduction in populations and reduction in growth (such \r\nas for shellfish). These ecological risks include cascading impacts on \r\nlivelihoods and food security. Global-scale risks also include risks to \r\npeople, property and infrastructure from river flooding and extreme \r\nheat (particularly in urban areas), risks to fisheries (with implications \r\nfor living standards and food security) and some health risks from \r\nfood-borne diseases as well as psychopathologies."


id: 66326af09843f3d38855c4bb8aaedef6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15245
content:
"Likelihood of adverse consequences. A higher probability of \r\nhigh-magnitude consequences poses a larger risk a priori, whatever \r\nthe scale considered. This probability may not be quantifiable, and it \r\nmay be conditional on assumptions about the hazard, exposure or \r\nvulnerability associated with the risk."


id: 3f5a2b40a38b90951bbee8bbcf8bd6fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8337
content:
"Temporal characteristics of the risk. Risks that occur sooner, or that \r\nincrease more rapidly over time, present greater challenges to natural \r\nand societal adaptation. A persistent risk (due to the persistence of \r\nthe hazard, exposure and vulnerability) may also pose a higher threat \r\nthan a temporary risk due, for example, to a short-term increase in \r\nthe vulnerability of a population (e.g., due to conflict or an economic \r\ndownturn)."


id: 5cbff4e360cbe93ee852aaeb158282e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Many KRs are especially prominent in particular regions or systems, \r\nor for particular subgroups of the population. For example, coastal \r\nsystems and small islands are a nexus of many KRs, including those \r\nto ecosystems and their services, especially coral reefs; people (health, "


id: 3f107cba750f4c052bf21951a020c674
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"livelihoods); and assets, including infrastructure. Risks to socio\u0002ecological systems in polar regions are also identified as KRs, as are \r\necological risks to the Amazon Forest in South America and savannahs \r\nin Africa. For some regions, risks from wildfire are of particular concern, \r\nincluding in Australasia and North America. Vector-borne diseases are \r\na particular concern in Africa and Asia. Loss of cultural heritage is \r\nidentified as a KR in small islands, mountain regions, Africa, Australasia \r\nand North America."


id: 69ad79c976cc646578dacf661fcd1300
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15858
content:
"For many risks, low-income populations are particularly vulnerable to \r\nKRs. Climate-related impacts on malnutrition and other forms of food \r\ninsecurity will be larger for this group, along with small-holder farming \r\nhouseholds and Indigenous communities reliant on agriculture, and for \r\nwomen, children, the elderly and the socially isolated (Section 5.12). \r\nKRs in coastal communities are expected to affect low-income \r\npopulations more strongly, including through risks to livelihoods of \r\nthose reliant on coastal fisheries. KRs related to health are generally \r\nhigher for low-income populations less likely to have adequate housing \r\nor access to infrastructure."


id: 40c7501edf0527dc3503dec45f91f98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8585
content:
"As in AR5 Oppenheimer et al. (2014), major clusters of KRs are further \r\nanalysed, and here referred to as 'representative key risks' (RKRs). \r\nRKRs were defined in a three-step process (SM16.3.1). First, half of \r\nChapter 16 authors independently mapped the KRs (SM16.7.4) to a set \r\nof candidate RKRs. Second, all Chapter 16 authors discussed the set of \r\nindependent results and proposed a list of RKRs, considering scope and \r\noverlap. Third, this proposal was discussed with a consultative group of \r\nabout 20 WGII AR6 authors from other chapters closely involved in the \r\nKR identification process, and a final list of eight RKRs was identified \r\n(Table 16.6)."


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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Each RKR assessment followed a common set of guidelines (SM16.3) \r\nthat included broad criteria for defining severity (Section  16.5.1), \r\nconsideration of complex risks and interactions within and across \r\nRKRs, and consideration of risks across a range of scales, regions, and \r\necological and human development contexts. The specific definition of \r\nseverity within each RKR was determined by the author teams of that \r\nassessment, applying different combinations of key risk criteria and \r\nmetrics as judged appropriate in each case. Definitions are transparent \r\nand use common criteria, but are nonetheless based on the respective \r\nauthor team's judgement. Conclusions about severity and associated \r\nconfidence statements are therefore conditional on those definitions."


id: eb3b61b03e4e624edba0825561125726
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38740
content:
"Assessments are based on different types of evidence depending on \r\nthe nature of the literature. In some cases, quantitative projections of \r\npotential impacts are available. In others and as for KR identification, \r\nthe potential for severe risk is inferred from high levels of current \r\nvulnerability and the expectation that the relevant climate hazards \r\n(climatic impact drivers, CIDs) will increase in frequency or intensity \r\nin the future."


id: a37e4d8b3bf96c7b954b868286e9125b
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25973
content:
"RKR-A considers climate-change-related risks to low-lying coasts \r\nincluding their physical, ecological and human components. Low\u0002lying systems are those occupying land below 10 m of elevation that \r\nis contiguous and hydrologically connected to the sea (McGranahan \r\net al., 2007). The assessment builds on Key Risks identified in Chapters "


id: 3ccf6d4941e2026f3abe7d31bd709741
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7883
content:
"Each RKR was assessed by a team of four to nine members drawn \r\nfrom Chapter 16, other WGII AR6 chapters, and external contributing \r\nauthors (SM16.4). The following subsections describe the scope of \r\nthe category of risk (underlying KR considered) and the approach to "


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"Table 16.6 |  Climate-related representative key risks (RKRs). The scope of each RKR is further described in the assessments in Section 16.5.2.3. Relation to categories of \r\noverarching key risks identified in AR5 is provided for continuity."


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"level extremes and permanent flooding (high confidence; Oppenheimer \r\net al. 2019, Ranasinghe et al. 2021). Observed impacts of and projected \r\nincreases in high-intensity extreme events (Ranasinghe et al. 2021) also \r\nprovide evidence for severe risk to occur on livelihoods, infrastructure \r\nand well-being (Section 16.5.2.3.3) by mid-century (high confidence). \r\nConsequently, the combination of high warming, continued coastal \r\ndevelopment and low adaptation levels will challenge the habitability \r\nof many low-lying coastal communities in both developing and \r\ndeveloped countries over the course of this century (limited evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Duvat et  al., 2021; Horton et  al., 2021). In some \r\ncontexts, climate risks are already considered severe (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement), and in others, even lower warming will \r\ninduce severe risks to habitability, which will not necessarily be offset \r\nby ambitious adaptation (limited evidence, medium agreement)."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"3 and 15, Cross Chapter Paper 2 as well as in the SROCC (Magnan \r\net al., 2019; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). It highlights risks to (i) natural \r\ncoastal protection and habitats; (ii) lives, livelihoods, culture and well\u0002being; and (iii) critical physical infrastructure; it therefore overlaps with \r\nseveral other RKRs (Figures 16.10, 16.11) but within a coastal focus. \r\nIt encompasses all latitudes and considers multiple sources of climate \r\nhazards, including SLR, ocean warming and acidification, permafrost \r\nthaw, and sea ice loss and changes in weather extremes."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"Severe risks to low-lying coasts involve irreversible long-term loss of \r\nland, critical ecosystem services, livelihoods, well-being or culture in \r\nrelation to increasing combined drivers, including climate hazards and \r\nexposure and vulnerability conditions. The definition depends on the \r\nlocal context because of variation in the perception of tolerable risks \r\nand the limits to adaptation (Handmer and Nalau, 2019). Accordingly, \r\na qualitative range of consequences is presented here, in place of a \r\nquantitative global severe risk threshold."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"The literature suggests that severe risks generally occur at the nexus \r\nof high levels and rates of anthropogenic-driven change in climate \r\nhazards (Section  16.2.3.2), concentrations of people and tangible \r\nand intangible assets, non-climate hazards such as sediment mining \r\nand ecosystem degradation (Section  3.4.2.1), and the reaching of \r\nadaptation limits (Section 16.4) (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nIn some Arctic communities and in communities reliant on warm\u0002water coral reefs, even 1.5-2degC warming will lead to severe risks from \r\nloss of ecosystem services (Section  3.4.2.2; Cross-Chapter Paper 6) \r\n(high confidence). Loss of land is already underway globally due to \r\naccelerating coastal erosion and will be amplified by increased sea "


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"Warm-water coral reefs are at risk of widespread loss of structural \r\ncomplexity and reef accretion by 2050 under 1.5degC global warming \r\n(Section 3.4.2.1) (high confidence). Kelp forests may experience shifts \r\nin community structure (Arafeh-Dalmau et al., 2019; Rogers-Bennett \r\nand Catton, 2019; Smale, 2020; Smith et  al., 2021) with >2degC of "


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"fishing activities (Fawcett et al., 2018; Galappaththi et al., 2019; \r\nHuntington et al., 2020; Nuttall, 2020, Cross-Chapter Paper 6), and \r\nwhere permafrost thaw, SLR and coastal erosion are contributing \r\nto threatening cultural sites (Hollesen et al., 2018; Fenger-Nielsen \r\net al., 2020)."


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"More broadly, about 28,000 km2\r\n of land have been lost globally \r\nsince the 1980s due to anthropogenic factors (e.g., coastal structures, \r\ndisruption of sediment fluxes) and coastal hazards (Mentaschi et al., \r\n2018), and an additional loss of 6000-17,000 km2\r\n is estimated by the \r\nend of the century due to coastal erosion alone associated with SLR in \r\ncombination with other drivers (Hinkel et al., 2013)."


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"This risk refers to transformations of terrestrial and ocean/coastal \r\necosystems that would include significant changes in structure and/\r\nor functioning, and/or loss of a substantial fraction of species richness \r\n(commonly used to indicate loss of biodiversity). These are sourced \r\nmainly from Chapters 2 and 3, Cross-Chapter Paper 1, and reference \r\nthe 1.5C report, Chapter 4 from WGII AR5, and Chapter 4 from WGII \r\nAR4 Reports."


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"Severe adverse impacts on biodiversity include significant risk of \r\nspecies extinction (e.g., loss of a substantial fraction (one-tenth or \r\nmore) of species from a local to global scale), mass population mortality \r\n(>50% of individuals or colonies killed), ecological disruption (order\u0002of-magnitude increases or abrupt reductions of population numbers or \r\nbiomass), shifts in ecosystem structure and function (order-of magnitude \r\nincreases or abrupt decreases in cover and/or biomass of novel growth \r\nforms or functional types) and/or a socioeconomically material increase \r\nin environmental risk (e.g., destruction by wildfire) or socioeconomically \r\nmaterial decline in goods and services (e.g., carbon stock losses, loss of \r\ngrazing, loss of pollination). Metrics relevant to SDGs are also germane."


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"A substantial proportion of biodiversity is at risk of being lost \r\nbelow 2degC of global warming (Chapter 2), due to range reductions \r\nand loss globally, with this risk amplified roughly three times in \r\ninsular ecosystems and biodiversity hotspots, due to the increased \r\nvulnerability of endemic species (Manes et  al., 2021). High-latitude, \r\nhigh-altitude, insular, freshwater, and coral reef ecosystems and \r\nbiodiversity hotspots (Chapter 2, Cross-Chapter Paper 1) are at \r\nappreciable risk of substantial biodiversity loss due to climate change "


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"fraction of species studied (Chapter 2, Table 16.2). Commensal or \r\nparasitic diseases may infect immunologically naive hosts (e.g., chytrid \r\nfungus in amphibians). Atypical disturbance regimes may be enhanced, \r\nfor example, with the spread of flammable plant species (e.g., du Toit \r\net  al., 2015), exacerbated by introduced species (e.g., Martin et  al., \r\n2015), thus significantly increasing risk of losses and damages to \r\ninfrastructure and livelihoods, as well as ecological degradation, and \r\nchallenging existing management approaches."


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"Ecological disruption (order-of-magnitude increases or abrupt \r\nreductions of population numbers or biomass) can occur due to \r\nunprecedented inter-species interactions with unpredictable outcomes \r\nin 'novel ecosystems' (Chapter 2) as species shift geographic ranges \r\nidiosyncratically in response to climatic drivers (Table  SM16.22). \r\nIdiosyncratic geographic shifts are now observed in an appreciable "


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"alternative methodologies (Diaz and Moore, 2017; Nordhaus and \r\nMoffat, 2017; Kompas et  al., 2018; Kalkuhl and Wenz, 2020), \r\nassuming less warming (Kahn et al., 2019; Takakura et al., 2019), \r\nand assuming lower vulnerability and/or more adaptation (Diaz \r\nand Moore, 2017); this literature is comprehensively summarised \r\nin Cross-Working Group Chapter Box ECONOMIC. Impacts at high \r\nlevels of warming are particularly uncertain, as all methodologies \r\nrequire extrapolation and insufficiently incorporate possible tipping \r\nelements in the climate system (Kopp et al., 2016)."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"This RKR includes risks to (i) aggregate economic output at the global \r\nand national levels, (ii) poverty and (iii) livelihoods, and their implications \r\nfor economic inequality. It is informed by key risks identified by regional \r\nand sectoral chapters. Risks are potentially severe as measured by \r\nthe magnitude of impacts in comparison with historical events or as \r\ninferred from the number of people currently vulnerable."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:04
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"In a high-vulnerability development pathway, climate change in 2030 \r\ncould push 35-132 million people into extreme poverty, in addition to the \r\npeople already in poverty assuming climate is unchanged (disregarding \r\nimpacts from natural variability; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; Jafino \r\net al., 2020). In a low-warming pathway, risks from mitigation costs \r\ncould also be severe if no progressive redistribution from carbon pricing \r\nrevenues is applied (Soergel et al., 2021). At the national level, there \r\nis limited evidence of climate change causing an absolute increase in \r\npoverty (e.g., absolute increase of ~1-2% yr-1 through 2040, Montaud \r\net al., 2017). Potentially severe risks to poverty are also supported by \r\n(1) the observed impacts of past disasters (Winsemius et  al., 2018; \r\nHallegatte et al., 2020; Rentschler and Melda, 2020) and previous crises "


