# document

id: 8a04667ff8e929e725811bc64e85420
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21453
content:
"Case A: Permafrost carbon and greenhouse gas emissions. AR5 reported the estimated size of the organic carbon pool stored frozen in \r permafrost zone soils, but uncertainty estimates were not available (Tarnocai et al., 2009; Ciais et al., 2013). AR5 further reported that \r future greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 only) from permafrost were the most uncertain biogeochemical feedback on climate of the ten \r factors quantified (Figure 6.20 in Ciais et al., 2013). However, the low confidence assigned to permafrost was not due to few studies, \r but rather to divergence on the conceptual framework relating changes in permafrost carbon and future greenhouse gas emissions, as \r well as the probability distribution of key variables. Most large-scale carbon climate models still lack key landscape-level mechanisms \r that are known to abruptly thaw permafrost and expose organic carbon to decomposition, and many do not include mechanisms \r [...]"


id: a1778eb2d43d7e0a8febfc4ccf01d847
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 25623
content:
"[...] needed to differentiate the release of methane versus carbon dioxide with their very different global warming potentials. Studies since \r AR5 on potential methane release from laboratory soil incubations (Schadel et al., 2016; Knoblauch et al., 2018), actual methane \r release from the Siberian shallow Arctic ocean shelves (Shakhova et al., 2013; Thornton et al., 2016), changes in permafrost carbon \r stocks from the Last Glacial Maximum until present (Ciais et al., 2011; Lindgren et al., 2018) and potential carbon uptake by future \r plant growth (Qian et al., 2010; McGuire et al., 2018) have widened rather than narrowed the uncertainty range (Section 3.4.3.1.1). \r Accounting for greenhouse gas release from polar and high mountain (Box 2.2) permafrost, introduces an element of deep uncertainty \r when determining emissions pathways consistent with Article 2 of the Paris Agreement (Comyn-Platt et al., 2018). With stakeholder \r [...]"


id: 795dedbebcaaf6461f3b7a61bc7b9fe1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18549
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"[...] needs in mind, scientists have been actively engaged in narrowing this uncertainty by using multiple lines of evidence, expert judgment, \r and joint evaluation of observations and models. As a result, SROCC has reduced uncertainty and introduced confidence assessments \r across some but not all components of this problem (Section 3.4.3.1.1.)."


id: a9191382e8ac23ba93f2d2d676e051cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26963
content:
"Case B: Antarctic ice sheet and sea level rise. Dynamical ice loss from Antarctica (Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3) provides an example \r of lack of knowledge about processes, and disagreement about appropriate models and probability distributions for representing \r uncertainty (categories (1) and (2) in the definition of deep uncertainty). AR5 used a statistical model and expert judgment to reduce \r uncertainty compared to AR4 (Church et al., 2013). Based on modelling of marine ice sheet processes after AR5, SROCC has further \r reduced uncertainty in the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. The likely range including the potential contribution of marine ice \r sheet instability is quantified as 0.02-0.23 m for 2081-2100 (and 0.03-0.28 m for 2100) compared to 1986-2005 under RCP8.5 \r (medium confidence). However, the magnitude of additional rise beyond 2100, and the probability of greater sea level rise than that \r [...]"


id: 65dc6e6d2c4c0630aae69a0eea20cc16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 15183
content:
"[...] included in the likely range before 2100, are characterised by deep uncertainty (Section 4.2.3). "


id: 904db4a39be7c764ad66697fb72deb90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22591
content:
"Policy makers at various levels of governance are considering adaptation investments (e.g., hard infrastructure, retreat, and nature-based \r defences) for multi-decadal time horizons that consider projection uncertainty (Sections 4.4.2, 4.4.3). For example, extreme sea levels \r (e.g., the local 'hundred-year flood') now occurring during storms that are historically rare are projected to become annual events by \r 2100 or sooner at many low-lying coastal locations (Section 4.4.3). Sea level rise exceeding the likely range, or an alternate pathway \r to the assumed climate change scenario (e.g., which RCP is used in risk estimation), could alter these projections and both factors \r are characterised by deep uncertainty. Among the strategies used to reduce deep uncertainty in these cases are formal and informal \r elicitation of expert judgment to project ice sheet behaviour (Horton et al., 2014; Bamber et al., 2019), and development of plausible \r [...]"


id: 594c76cc497ced9199f7f99bac3ff858
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] sea level rise scenarios, including extreme cases (Sections 4.2.3, 4.4.5.3). Frameworks for risk management under deep uncertainty in \r the context of time lags between commitment to ice sheet losses and emissions mitigation, and between coastal adaptation planning \r and implementation, are currently emerging in the literature (Section 4.4.5.3.4)."


id: 71391dc0f8c70229971eba04544b1164
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
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content:
"Case C: Compound risks and cascading impacts. Compound risks and cascading impacts (Section 6.1, 6.8, Figure 1.1, Figure 6.1) \r arise from multiple coincident or sequential hazards (Zscheischler et al., 2018). Compound risks are an example of deep uncertainty \r because their rarity means that there is often a lack of data or modelling to characterise the risks statistically under present conditions \r or future changes (Gallina et al., 2016), and there is the potential that climate elements could cross tipping points (e.g., Cai et al., \r 2016). Nevertheless, effective risk reduction strategies can be developed without knowing the statistical likelihoods of such events \r by acknowledging the possibility that an event can occur (Dessai et al., 2009). Such strategies are typically well hedged against a \r variety of different futures and adjustable through time in response to emerging information (Lempert et al., 2010). Case studies are \r [...]"


id: 22bb4570a4b313d69f9df5a5de0cd975
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] useful for raising awareness of the possibility of compound events and provide valuable learnings for decision makers in the form of \r analogues (McLeman and Hunter, 2010). They can provide a basis for devising scenarios to stress test systems in other regions for \r the purposes of understanding and reducing risk. The case study describing the ocean, climate and weather events in the Australian \r state of Tasmania in 2015/2016 (Box 6.1) provides such an example. It led to compound risks that could not have been estimated \r due to deep uncertainty. The total cost of the co-occurring fires, floods and marine heat wave to the state government was estimated \r at about 300 million USD, and impacts on the food, energy and manufacturing sectors reduced Tasmania's anticipated economic \r growth by approximately half (Eslake, 2016). In the aftermath of this event, the government increased funding to relevant agencies \r [...]"


id: d2f21a6d8e3d1e98c32d31e1e7652a86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] responsible for flood and bushfire management and independent reviews have recommended major policy reforms that are now \r under consideration (Blake et al., 2017; Tasmanian Climate Change Office, 2017)."


id: 4d7ebfeb48f8aa1eb24bdf44a9290277
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Using the adapted definition as a framing concept for deep uncertainty (see also Annex 1: Glossary), we find that each of the three \r cases described in this Cross-Chapter Box involve at least one of the three ways that deep uncertainty can manifest. In Case A,\r incomplete knowledge on relationships and key drivers and feedbacks (category 1), coupled with broadened probability distributions \r in post-AR5 literature (category 2), are key reasons for deep uncertainty. In Case B, the inability to characterise the probability of \r marine ice sheet instability due to a lack of adequate models resulting in divergent views on the probability of ice loss lead to \r deep uncertainty (categories 1 and 2). In Case C, the Australian example provides insights on the inadequacy of models or previous \r experience for estimating risk of multiple simultaneous extreme events, contributing to the exhaustion of resources which were then \r [...]"


id: 26f3929a555ad3428ceabcb3ba015d14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] insufficient to meet the need for emergency response. This case also points to the complex task of addressing multiple simultaneous \r extreme events, and the multiple ways of valuing preferred outcomes in reducing future losses (category 3). "


id: 3ac3dd3d2e8d6625e8f55ee5153fff12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Chapter  2 assesses High Mountain areas outside of the polar \r regions, where glaciers, snow and/or permafrost are common. \r Chapter 3 moves to the Polar Regions of the northern and southern \r high latitudes, which are characterised by vast stores of frozen water \r in ice sheets, glaciers, ice shelves, sea ice and permafrost, and by \r the interaction of these cryosphere elements and the polar oceans. \r Chapter 4 examines Sea Level Rise and the hazards this brings to \r Low-Lying Regions, Coasts and Communities. Chapter  5 focuses \r on the Changing Ocean, with a particular focus on how climate \r change impacts on the ocean are altering Marine Ecosystems\r and affecting Dependent Communities. Chapter  6 is dedicated to \r assessing Extremes and Abrupt Events, and reflects the potential \r for rapid and possibly irreversible changes in Earth's ocean and \r cryosphere, and the challenges this brings to Managing Risk. The \r multitude ways in which Low-Lying Islands and Coasts are exposed \r [...]"


id: 12170031abc3df78f900d9eccb1ad2ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] and vulnerable to the impacts of ocean and cryosphere change, \r along with resilience and adaptation strategies, opportunities and \r governance options specific to these settings, is highlighted in \r integrative Cross-Chapter Box 9. "


id: d6187e4ac3cdc0c452840f87ff11690e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Each chapter of SROCC presents an integrated storyline on the ocean \r and/or cryosphere in a changing climate. The chapter assessments \r each present evidence of the pervasive changes that are already \r underway in the ocean and cryosphere (Figure 1.5). The impacts that \r physical changes in the ocean and cryosphere have had on ecosystems \r and people are assessed, along with lessons learned from adaptation \r measures that have already been employed to avoid adverse impacts. \r The assessments of future change in the ocean and cryosphere \r demonstrate the growing and accelerating changes projected for the \r future and identify the reduced impacts and risks that choices for \r a low greenhouse gas emission future would have compared with a \r high emission future (Figure 1.5). Potential adaptation strategies to \r reduce future risks to ecosystems and people are assessed, including \r identifying where limits to adaptation may be exceeded. The local- to \r [...]"


id: e1a0647ba8d2dc3534a35765cdbc9208
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Figure 1.5 | (right) Observed and modelled historical changes in the ocean and cryosphere since 1950, and projected future changes under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) \r greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). -Changes are shown for: (a) Global mean surface air temperature change with likely range (Cross-Chapter \r Box 1 in Chapter 1). Ocean-related changes with very likely ranges for (b) Global mean sea surface temperature change (Box 5.1, Section 5.2.2); (c) Change factor in surface \r ocean marine heatwave days (6.4.1); (d) Global ocean heat content change (0-2000 m depth). An approximate steric sea level equivalent is shown with the right axis by \r multiplying the ocean heat content by the global-mean thermal expansion coefficient (B  0.125 m per 1024 Joules) for observed warming since 1970 (Figure 5.1); (h) Global \r [...]"


id: 67c4fbc39ba9f10313727b78c5e517ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] mean surface pH (on the total scale). Assessed observational trends are compiled from open ocean time series sites longer than 15 years (Box 5.1, Figure 5.6, Section 5.2.2); and \r (i) Global mean ocean oxygen change (100-600 m depth). Assessed observational trends span 1970-2010 centered on 1996 (Figure 5.8, Section 5.2.2). Sea-level changes\r with likely ranges for (m) Global mean sea level change. Hashed shading reflects low confidence in sea level projections beyond 2100 and bars at 2300 reflect expert elicitation \r on the range of possible sea level change (Section 4.2.3, Figure 4.2); and components from (e,f) Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss (Section 3.3.1); and (g) Glacier \r mass loss (Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, Table 4.1). Further cryosphere-related changes with very likely ranges for (j) Arctic sea ice extent change for September \r [...]"


id: 3c3250c3e0b2069dd0108bec203ad7ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] (Sections 3.2.1, 3.2.2 Figure 3.3); (k) Arctic snow cover change for June (land areas north of 60oN) (Sections 3.4.1, 3.4.2, Figure 3.10); and (l) Change in near-surface (within \r 3-4 m) permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere (Sections 3.4.1, 3.4.2, Figure 3.10). "


id: 365e2b5684a08dcaad745430517af25
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) will be affected by ocean and cryosphere changes. Melting mountain glaciers \r bring an initial increase in water, but as glaciers continue to shrink so too will the essential water they provide \r to millions of mountain dwellers, downstream communities, and cities. These populations also depend on water \r flow from the high mountains for drinking, sanitation, and irrigation, and for SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). \r Water security is also threatened by changes in the magnitude and seasonality of rainfall, driven by rising ocean \r temperatures, which increases the risk of severe storms and flooding in some regions, or the risk of more severe \r or more frequent droughts in other regions. Among other effects, ongoing sea level rise is allowing salt water to \r intrude further inland, contaminating drinking water and irrigation sources for some coastal populations. Actions \r [...]"


id: 9ee2d4fc1dc04d85b5d5959793300d01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] to address these threats will likely require new infrastructure to manage rain, melt water, and river flow, in order \r to make water supplies more reliable. These actions would also benefit SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being) by \r reducing the risk of flooding and negative health outcomes posed by extreme rainfall and outbursts of glacial melt."


id: ad50c81fefcada21a79f4eec935d37a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Climate change impacts on the ocean and cryosphere also have many implications for progress on food security \r that is addressed in SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Changes in rainfall patterns caused by ocean warming will increase \r aridity in some areas and bring more (or more intense) rainfall to others. In mountain regions, these changes \r bring varying challenges for maintaining reliable crops and livestock production. Some adaptation opportunities \r might be found in developing strains of crops and livestock better adapted to the future climate conditions, but \r this response option is also challenged by the rapid rate of climate change. In the Arctic, very rapidly warming \r temperatures, diminishing sea ice, reduced snow cover and degradation of permafrost are restricting the habitats \r and migration patterns of important food sources (SDG 2 Zero Hunger), including reindeer and several marine \r [...]"


id: 826f5b4bc522aca30e9234e1e191f5b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] mammals (SDG 15 Life on Land; SDG 14 Life below Water), resulting in reduced hunting opportunities for staple \r foods that many northern Indigenous communities depend upon."


id: d79f287f0f4358aa8e9cde3823313d3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Ocean changes are of concern for small island developing states and coastal cities and communities. Beyond possible \r reductions in marine food supply and related risks for SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), their lives, livelihoods and well-being \r are also threatened in ways that are linked to several SDGs, including SDG 3 (Good Health and Wellbeing), SDG \r 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 11 (Sustainable \r Cities and Communities). For example, sea level rise and warming oceans can cause inundation of coastal homes \r and infrastructure, more powerful tropical storms, declines in established economies such as tourism and losses \r of cultural heritage and identity. Improved community and coastal infrastructure can help to adapt to these \r changes, and more effective and faster disaster responses from health sectors and other emergency services can \r [...]"


id: 4e2b8b83673cf8900ae82aec0c548ee2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] assist the populations who experience these impacts. In some situations, the most appropriate responses may \r involve relocation of critical services and, in some cases, communities; and for some populations, migration away \r from their homeland may become the only viable response."


id: 8ebddd6d5cb43ba22196900023177017
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22302
content:
"Without transformative adaptation and mitigation, climate change could undermine progress towards achieving \r the 2030 SDGs, and make it more difficult to implement CRDPs in the longer term. Reducing global warming \r (mitigation) provides the best possibility to limit the speed and extent of ocean and cryosphere change and give \r more options for effective adaptation and sustainable development. Progress on SDG 4 (Quality Education), \r SDG 5 (Gender Equality) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) can moderate the vulnerabilities that shape people's \r risk to ocean and cryosphere change, while SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), SDG 16 (Peace, \r Justice and Institutions) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) will help to facilitate the scales of adaptation \r and mitigation responses required to achieve sustainable development. Investment in social and physical \r infrastructure that supports adaptation to inevitable ocean and cryosphere changes will enable people to \r [...]"


id: fdad6e8c8a6dae91d06d119d74046df7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] participate in initiatives to achieve the SDGs. Current and past IPCC efforts have focused on identifying CRDPs. \r Such adaptation and mitigation strategies, supported by adequate investments, and understanding the potential \r for SDG initiatives to increase the exposure or vulnerability of the activities to climate change hazards, could also \r constitute pathways for progress on the SDGs."


id: e4aa8c98b189601f73906fc8c9f98eeb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 37514
content:
"Simon Allen (Switzerland), Lukas Arenson (Canada), Soumyadeep Banerjee (India), Iestyn Barr \r (UK), Roxana Borquez (Chile), Lee Brown (UK), Bin Cao (China), Mark Carey (USA), Graham \r Cogley (Canada), Andreas Fischlin (Switzerland), Alex de Sherbinin (USA), Nicolas Eckert \r (France), Marten Geertsema (Canada), Marca Hagenstad (USA), Martin Honsberg (Germany), \r Eran Hood (USA), Matthias Huss (Switzerland), Elizabeth Jimenez Zamora (Bolivia), Sven \r Kotlarski (Switzerland), Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre (Norway/France), Juan Ignacio Lopez Moreno \r (Spain), Jessica Lundquist (USA), Graham McDowell (Canada), Scott Mills (USA), Cuicui Mou \r (China), Santosh Nepal (Nepal), Jeannette Noetzli (Switzerland), Elisa Palazzi (Italy), Nick \r Pepin (UK), Christian Rixen (Switzerland), Maria Shahgedanova (UK), S. McKenzie Skiles (USA), \r Christian Vincent (France), Daniel Viviroli (Switzerland), Gesa Weyhenmeyer (Sweden), Pasang \r [...]"


id: 81cc6cbe49a75db65e57873ffc967df9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] Yangjee Sherpa (Nepal/USA), Nora M. Weyer (Germany), Bert Wouters (Netherlands), Teppei J. \r Yasunari (Japan), Qinglong You (China), Yangjiang Zhang (China)"


id: 1aacafa50f609cff077dc1d0fbc983f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Changes in snow and glaciers have changed the amount and \r seasonality of runoff in snow-dominated and glacier-fed river \r basins (very high confidence) with local impacts on water \r resources and agriculture (medium confidence). Winter runoff \r has increased in recent decades due to more precipitation falling as \r rain (high confidence). In some glacier-fed rivers, summer and annual \r runoff have increased due to intensified glacier melt, but decreased \r where glacier melt water has lessened as glacier area shrinks. \r Decreases were observed especially in regions dominated by small \r glaciers, such as the European Alps (medium confidence). Glacier \r retreat and snow cover changes have contributed to localized declines \r in agricultural yields in some high mountain regions, including the \r Hindu Kush Himalaya and the tropical Andes (medium confidence). \r There is limited evidence of impacts on operation and productivity \r [...]"


id: bcd429c7d8e880626ce3cdb4b21ab4fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] of hydropower facilities resulting from changes in seasonality and \r both increases and decreases in water input, for example, in the \r European Alps, Iceland, Western Canada and USA, and the tropical \r Andes. {2.3.1}"


id: d628195f6c98b3a34ab9e91d906c1d3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 34996
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"Observations show general decline in low-elevation snow \r cover (high confidence1), glaciers (very high confidence) and \r permafrost (high confidence) due to climate change in recent \r decades. Snow cover duration has declined in nearly all regions, \r especially at lower elevations, on average by 5  days per decade, \r with a likely2\r  range from 0-10 days per decade. Low elevation snow \r depth and extent have declined, although year-to-year variation is \r high. Mass change of glaciers in all mountain regions (excluding the \r Canadian and Russian Arctic, Svalbard, Greenland and Antarctica) \r was very likely -490 +- 100 kg m-2 yr-1 (-123 +- 24 Gt yr-1) in 2006-\r 2015. Regionally averaged mass budgets were likely most negative \r (less than -850 kg m-2 yr-1) in the southern Andes, Caucasus and the \r European Alps/Pyrenees, and least negative in High Mountain Asia \r (-150 +- 110 kg m-2 yr-1) but variations within regions are strong. \r Between 3.6-5.2  million km2\r [...]"


id: 2d3c5bb9e4143d190e025642b180ea96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...]  are underlain by permafrost in the \r eleven high mountain regions covered in this chapter corresponding \r to 27-29% of the global permafrost area (medium confidence). \r Sparse and unevenly distributed measurements show an increase \r in permafrost temperature (high confidence), for example, by \r 0.19oC +- 0.05oC on average for about 28 locations in the European \r Alps, Scandinavia, Canada and Asia during the past decade. Other \r observations reveal decreasing permafrost thickness and loss of ice \r in the ground. {2.2.2, 2.2.3, 2.2.4} "


id: 9a1deafa5187a342e9451b2839d22a47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 24349
content:
"Species composition and abundance have markedly changed \r in high mountain ecosystems in recent decades (very high \r confidence), partly due to changes in the cryosphere (high \r confidence). Habitats for establishment by formerly absent species \r have opened up or been altered by reduced snow cover (high \r confidence), retreating glaciers (very high confidence), and thawing \r of permafrost (medium confidence). Reductions in glacier and \r snow cover have directly altered the structure of many freshwater \r communities (high confidence). Reduced snow cover has negatively \r impacted the reproductive fitness of some snow-dependent \r plant and animal species, including foraging and predator-prey \r relationships of mammals (high confidence). Upslope migration \r of individual species, mostly due to warming and to a lesser extent \r due to cryosphere-related changes, has often increased local species \r richness (very high confidence). Some cold-adapted species, including \r [...]"


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"River runoff in snow dominated and glacier-fed river basins \r will change further in amount and seasonality in response to \r projected snow cover and glacier decline (very high confidence) \r with negative impacts on agriculture, hydropower and water \r quality in some regions (medium confidence). The average \r winter snowmelt runoff is projected to increase (high confidence), and \r spring peaks to occur earlier (very high confidence). Projected trends \r in annual runoff vary substantially among regions, and can even be \r opposite in direction, but there is high confidence that in all regions \r average annual runoff from glaciers will have reached a peak that \r will be followed by declining runoff at the latest by the end of the \r 21st century. Declining runoff is expected to reduce the productivity \r of irrigated agriculture in some regions (medium confidence). \r Hydropower operations will increasingly be impacted by altered \r [...]"


id: 19e6986e958e9406aa24aef111154a6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] amount and seasonality of water supply from snow and glacier melt \r (high confidence). The release of heavy metals, particularly mercury, \r and other legacy contaminants currently stored in glaciers and \r permafrost, is projected to reduce water quality for freshwater biota, \r household use and irrigation (medium confidence). {2.3.1}"


id: 57bf8c6efac5c304c823b99cb2de958c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"Current trends in cryosphere-related changes in high mountain \r ecosystems are expected to continue and impacts to intensify \r (very high confidence). While high mountains will provide new \r and greater habitat area, including refugia for lowland species, \r both range expansion and shrinkage are projected, and at high \r elevations this will lead to population declines (high confidence). \r The latter increases the risk of local extinctions, in particular for \r freshwater cold-adapted species (medium confidence). Without \r genetic plasticity and/or behavioural shifts, cryospheric changes will \r continue to negatively impact endemic and native species, such as \r some coldwater fish (e.g.,  trout) and species whose traits directly \r depend on snow (e.g.,  snowshoe hares) or many large mammals \r (medium confidence). The survival of such species will depend \r on appropriate conservation and adaptation measures (medium \r confidence). Many projected ecological changes will alter ecosystem \r [...]"


id: 1b9ac6c04b93b28b954e7475931be727
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2041
content:
"[...] services (high confidence), affecting ecological disturbances (e.g., \r fire, rock fall, slope erosion) with considerable impacts on people \r (medium confidence). {2.3.3}"


id: 4b14dc09c67aed09d5fba886794cf5a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10452
content:
"Snow cover, glaciers and permafrost are projected to continue \r to decline in almost all regions throughout the 21st century \r (high confidence). Compared to 1986-2005, low elevation snow \r depth will likely decrease by 10-40% for 2031-2050, regardless of \r Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and for 2081-2100, \r likely by 10-40 % for RCP2.6 and by 50-90% for RCP8.5. Projected \r glacier mass reductions between 2015-2100 are likely 22-44% for \r RCP2.6 and 37-57% for RCP8.5. In regions with mostly smaller \r glaciers and relatively little ice cover (e.g., European Alps, Pyrenees, \r Caucasus, North Asia, Scandinavia, tropical Andes, Mexico, eastern \r Africa and Indonesia), glaciers will lose more than 80% of their \r current mass by 2100 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence), and \r many glaciers will disappear regardless emission scenario (very high \r confidence). Permafrost thaw and degradation will increase during \r the 21st century (very high confidence) but quantitative projections \r [...]"


id: 563a741bfd8554f012db41b1ddef271a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12437
content:
"The already committed and unavoidable climate change \r affecting all cryosphere elements, irrespective of the emission \r scenario, points to integrated adaptation planning to support \r and enhance water availability, access, and management (medium confidence). Integrated management approaches \r for water across all scales, in particular for energy,  agriculture, \r ecosystems and drinking water supply, can be effective at dealing \r with impacts from changes in the cryosphere. These approaches also \r offer opportunities to support social-ecological systems, through the \r development and optimisation of storage and the release of water from \r reservoirs (medium confidence), while being cognisant of potential \r negative implications for some ecosystems. Success in implementing \r such management options depends on the participation of relevant \r stakeholders, including affected communities, diverse knowledge \r and adequate tools for monitoring and projecting future conditions, \r [...]"


id: 7beddc16b470d20efe8b19373b7b7ad6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 19011
content:
"[...] and financial and institutional resources to support planning and \r implementation (medium confidence). {2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4}"


id: 728e8197c96444bd1aeeb3bf7818faa7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 17396
content:
"Figure 2.1 |  Distribution of mountain areas (orange shading) and glaciers (blue) as well as regional summary statistics for glaciers and permafrost in mountains. Mountains \r are distinguished based on a ruggedness index (>3.5), a logarithmically scaled measure of relative relief (Gruber, 2012). Eleven distinct regions with glaciers, generally \r corresponding to the primary regions in the Randolph Glacier Inventory, RGI v6.0 (RGI Consortium, 2017) are outlined, although some cryosphere related impacts presented in \r this chapter may go beyond these regions. Region names correspond to those in the RGI. Diamonds represent regional glacier area (RGI 6.0) and circles the permafrost area in \r all mountains within each region boundary (Obu et al., 2019). Histograms for each region show glacier and permafrost area in 200 m elevation bins as a percentage of total \r [...]"


id: de0b3ba6cb0fd150d71a2b35056e2017
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] regional glacier and permafrost area, respectively. Also shown is the median elevation of the annual mean 0oC free-atmosphere isotherm calculated from the ERA-5 re-analysis \r of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts over each region's mountain area for the period 2006-2015, with 25-75% quantiles in grey. The annual 0oC \r isotherm elevation roughly separates the areas where precipitation predominantly falls as snow and rain. Areas above and below this elevation are loosely referred to as high \r and low elevations, respectively, in this chapter."


id: df6419327108a432d30fe4a826fc6922
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"and future changes spanning the 21st century. A palaeo-perspective \r is covered in IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group I \r contribution on 'The Physical Science Basis'. High mountain areas, \r as discussed here, include all mountain regions where glaciers, snow \r or permafrost are prominent features of the landscape, without a \r strict and quantitative demarcation, but with a focus on distinct \r regions (Figure 2.1). Mountain regions located in the polar regions \r are considered in Chapter 3 except those in Iceland, Scandinavia and \r Alaska and parts of adjacent Yukon Territory and British Columbia, \r which are included in this chapter. Many changes in the mountain \r environment are not solely or directly related to climate change \r induced changes in the cryosphere, but to other direct or indirect \r effects of climate change, or to other consequences of socioeconomic \r development. Consistent with the scope of this report with a focus \r [...]"


id: 461be9d896df4bbe1046c6d3c4c3c903
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] on the ocean and the cryosphere, this section deals primarily with \r the impacts that can at least partially be attributed to cryosphere \r changes. Even though other drivers may be the dominant driver \r of change in many cases, they are not considered explicitly in this \r chapter, although unambiguous attribution to cryosphere changes is \r often difficult."


id: d935b044e3bb3fe6d86d5f2d14fc1eec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 35513
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"Past changes of surface air temperature and precipitation in high \r mountain areas have been documented by in situ observations \r and regional reanalyses (Table SM2.2 and Table SM2.4). However, \r mountain observation networks do not always follow standard \r measurement procedures (Oyler et al., 2015; Nitu et al., 2018) \r and are often insufficiently dense to capture fine-scale changes \r (Lawrimore et al., 2011) and the underlying larger scale patterns. \r Future changes are projected using General Circulation Models \r (GCMs) or Regional Climate Models (RCMs) or simplified versions \r thereof (e.g.,  Gutmann et al., 2016), used to represent processes \r at play in a dynamically consistent manner, and to relate mountain \r changes to larger-scale atmospheric forcing based on physical \r principles. Existing mountain-specific model studies typically cover \r individual mountain ranges, and there is currently no initiative found, \r [...]"


id: 711dec47f21d244f2422ff9301eafd13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17161
content:
"[...] such as model intercomparisons or coordinated model experiments, \r which specifically and comprehensively addresses high mountain \r meteorology and climate globally. This makes it difficult to provide \r a globally uniform assessment."


id: 40073910bf4bc93c799b61bd146ac40d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8454
content:
"warming has been found to be more pronounced in summer and \r spring (Auer et al., 2007; Ceppi et al., 2012), while on the Tibetan \r Plateau warming is stronger in winter (Liu et al., 2009; You et al., \r 2010). Studies comparing observations at lower and higher elevation \r at the global scale indicate that warming is generally enhanced \r above 500 m above sea level (a.s.l.) (e.g., Wang et al., 2016a; Qixiang \r et al., 2018, Table SM2.2). At the local and regional scale, evidence for \r elevation dependent warming, i.e., that the warming rate is different \r across elevation bands, is scattered and sometimes contradictory \r (Box 2.1). On the Tibetan Plateau, evidence based on combining in \r situ observations (often scarce at high elevation) with remote sensing \r and modelling approaches, indicates that warming is amplified \r around 4,000 m a.s.l., but not above 5,000 m a.s.l. (Qin et al., 2009; \r Gao et al., 2018). Studies in the Italian Alps (Tudoroiu et al., 2016) \r [...]"


id: 6bce6499ce268944e77f3e4cc5be27e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16267
content:
"[...] and Southern Himalaya (Nepal, 2016) have shown higher warming \r at lower elevation. Evidence from Western North and South America \r is conflicting (Table SM2.2). In other regions, evidence to assess \r whether warming varies with elevation is insufficient. In summary, \r there is medium evidence (medium agreement) that surface warming \r is different across elevation bands. Observed changes also depend on \r the type of temperature indicator: changes in daily mean, minimum "


id: a12da5ed2a2172df2f53b6c26a6547fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25579
content:
"In mountain regions, surface air temperature generally tends to decrease with increasing elevation thus directly impacting how much \r of the precipitation falls as snow as opposed to rain. Therefore, changes in air temperature have different consequences for snow \r cover, permafrost and glaciers at different elevations. A number of studies have reported that trends in air temperature vary with \r elevation, a phenomenon referred to as elevation dependent warming (EDW; Pepin et al., 2015, and references therein), with potential \r consequences beyond those of uniform warming. EDW does not imply that warming is larger at higher elevation, and smaller at lower \r elevation, but it means that the warming rate (e.g., in oC per decade) is not the same across all elevation bands. Although this concept \r has received wide attention in recent years, the manifestation of EDW varies by region, season and temperature indicator (e.g., daily \r [...]"


id: 3e977421fc86114f8ccfda18ce032c3
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vector_id: 8199
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"[...] mean, minimum or maximum temperature), meaning that a uniform pattern does not exist. The identification of the underlying driving \r mechanisms for EDW and how they combine is complex."


id: 3fda862d017e9c0739d015fa433749e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8428
content:
"Several physical processes contribute to EDW, and quantifying their relative contributions has remained largely elusive (Minder et al., \r 2018; Palazzi et al., 2019). Some of the processes identified are similar to those explaining the amplified warming in the polar regions \r (Chapter 3). For example, the sensitivity of temperature to radiative forcing is increased at low temperatures common in both polar and \r mountain environments (Ohmura, 2012). Because the relationship between specific humidity and downwelling radiation is nonlinear,\r in a dry and cold atmosphere found at high elevation, any increase in atmospheric humidity due to temperature increase drives \r disproportionately large warming (Rangwala et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2014). Snow-albedo feedback plays an important role where the \r snow cover is in decline (Pepin and Lundquist, 2008; Scherrer et al., 2012), increasing the absorption of solar radiation which in turn \r [...]"


id: a0ce28e959b7ba91580d0463e1d0bccb
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vector_id: 25505
content:
"[...] leads to increased surface air temperature and further snowmelt. Other processes are specific to the mountain environment. Especially \r in the tropics, warming can be enhanced at higher elevation by a reduction of the vertical temperature gradient, due to increased \r latent heat release above the condensation level, favored in a warmer and moister atmosphere (Held and Soden, 2006). The cooling \r effect of aerosols, which also cause solar dimming, is more pronounced at low elevation and reduced at high elevation (Zeng et al., \r 2015). While many mechanisms suggest that warming should be enhanced at high elevation, observed and simulated EDW patterns \r are usually more complex (Pepin et al., 2015, and references therein). Numerical simulations by global and regional climate models, \r which show EDW, need to be considered carefully because of intrinsic limitations due to potentially incomplete understanding and \r [...]"


id: 676ecfcd9222d090fce598690760d5dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15465
content:
"[...] implementation of relevant physical processes, in addition to coarse grid spacing with respect to mountainous topography (Menegoz \r et al., 2014; Winter et al., 2017). "


id: c540178391e9b8a24a9ca3c210caa61a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32007
content:
"the European Alps and the Carpathian region, and decreases in \r the Mediterranean and the Southern Andes (medium confidence,\r Table SM2.5). Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme \r precipitation events vary according to season and region. For \r example, across the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau mountains, the \r frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are projected \r to increase throughout the 21st century, particularly during the \r summer monsoon (Panday et al., 2015; Sanjay et al., 2017). This \r suggests a transition toward more episodic and intense monsoonal \r precipitation, especially in the easternmost part of the Himalayan \r chain (Palazzi et al., 2013). Increases in winter precipitation extremes \r are projected in the European Alps (Rajczak and Schar, 2017). \r At lower elevation, near term (2031-2050) and end of century \r (2081-2100) projections of snowfall all indicate a decrease, for all \r greenhouse gas emission scenarios (very high confidence). At higher \r [...]"


id: 1bb3038a1701834fba8b99a8c8188d82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2059
content:
"[...] elevation, where temperature increase is insufficient to affect rain/\r snow partitioning, total winter precipitation increases can lead to \r increased snowfall (e.g.,  Kapnick and Delworth, 2013; O'Gorman, \r 2014) (medium confidence)."


id: 53663d397fc2b56710f7fdcabde6596a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11946
content:
"Assessing the impact of the deposition of short-lived climate forcers \r on snow cover changes is an emerging issue (Skiles et al., 2018 \r and references therein). This concerns light absorbing particles, in \r particular, which include deposited aerosols such as black carbon, \r organic carbon and mineral dust, or microbial growth (Qian \r et al., 2015), although the role of the latter has not been specifically \r quantified. Due to their seasonally variable deposition flux and \r impact, and mostly episodic nature in case of dust deposition \r (Kaspari et al., 2014; Di Mauro et al., 2015), light absorbing particles \r contribute to interannual fluctuations of seasonal snowmelt rate \r (Painter et al., 2018) (medium evidence, high agreement). There is \r limited evidence (medium agreement) that increases in black carbon \r deposition from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources have \r contributed to snow cover decline in High Mountain Asia (Li et al., \r [...]"


id: 7156f0c26de7538db5479b52e4ddf006
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17199
content:
"Projected changes of mountain snow cover are studied based on \r climate model experiments, either directly from GCM or RCM output, \r or following downscaling and the use of snowpack models. These \r projections generally do not specifically account for future changes \r in the deposition rate of light absorbing particles on snow (or, if \r so, simple approaches have been used hitherto; e.g., Deems et al., \r 2013), so that future changes in snow conditions are mostly driven \r by changes in meteorological drivers assessed in Section  2.2.1. \r Evidence from regional studies is provided in Table SM2.7. Although \r existing studies in mountain regions do not use homogenous \r reference periods and model configurations, common future trends \r can be summarised as follows. At lower elevation in many regions \r such as the European Alps, Western North America, Himalaya and \r subtropical Andes, the snow depth or mass is projected to decline by \r [...]"


id: 45573dcb69466977bf43b18622c644c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 9420
content:
"[...] 25% (likely range between 10 and 40%), between the recent past \r period (1986-2005) and the near future (2031-2050), regardless \r of the greenhouse gas emission scenario (Cross-Chapter Box  1 \r in Chapter  1). This corresponds to a continuation of the ongoing \r decrease in annual snow cover duration (on average 5 days per \r decade, with a likely range from 0 to 10). By the end of the century \r (2081-2100), reductions of up to 80% (likely range from 50 to 90%) \r are expected under RCP8.5, 50% (likely range from 30 to 70%) under \r RCP4.5 and 30% (likely range from 10 to 40%) under RCP2.6. At \r higher elevations, projected reductions are smaller (high confidence), \r as temperature increases at higher elevations affect the ablation \r component of snow mass evolution, rather than both the onset and \r accumulation components. The projected increase in winter snow \r accumulation may result in a net increase in winter snow mass \r [...]"


id: eb21a026e194c6c7920577c7395cf252
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38723
content:
"[...] (medium confidence). All elevation levels and mountain regions \r are projected to exhibit sustained interannual variability of snow \r conditions throughout the 21st century (high confidence). Figure 2.3 \r provides projections of temperature and snow cover in mountain \r areas in Europe, High Mountain Asia (Hindu Kush, Karakoram and \r Himalaya), North America (Rocky Mountains) and South America \r (sub-tropical Central Andes), illustrating how changes vary with \r elevation, season, region, future time period and climate scenario."


id: e54e066ea3022215ae442acc472c26f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 37645
content:
"The mountain snow cover is characterised by a very strong \r interannual and decadal variability, similar to its main driving force \r solid precipitation (Lafaysse et al., 2014; Mankin and Diffenbaugh, \r 2015). Observations spanning several decades are required to \r quantify trends. Long-term in situ records are scarce in some regions \r of the world, particularly in High Mountain Asia, Northern Asia and \r South America (Rohrer et al., 2013). Satellite remote sensing provides \r new capabilities for monitoring mountain snow cover on regional \r scales. The satellite record length is often insufficient to assess trends \r (Bormann et al., 2018). Evidence of past changes from regional \r studies is provided in Table SM2.6. At lower elevation, there is high \r confidence that the mountain snow cover has generally declined \r in duration (on average by 5 snow cover days per decade, with a \r likely range from 0 to 10 days per decade), mean snow depth and \r [...]"


id: 6a339a5fe0d23d39885ce23e9a7531fc
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content:
"[...] accumulated mass (snow water equivalent) since the middle of the \r 20th century, with regional variations. At higher elevation, snow cover \r trends are generally insignificant (medium confidence) or unknown."


id: c2fb7d5085fc97c547d2ef690a8b0a25
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vector_id: 31577
content:
"Departing from this global trend of glacier recession, a small fraction \r of glaciers have gained mass or advanced in some regions mostly \r due to internal glacier dynamics or, in some cases, locally restricted \r climatic causes. For example, in Alaska 36 marine-terminating \r glaciers exhibited a complex pattern of periods of significant retreat \r and advance during 1948-2012, highly variable in time and lacking \r coherent regional behaviour (McNabb and Hock, 2014). These \r fluctuations can be explained by internal retreat-advance cycles \r typical of tidewater glaciers that are largely independent of climate \r (Brinkerhoff et al., 2017). Irregular and spatially inconsistent glacier \r advances, for example, in Alaska, Iceland and Karakoram, have been \r associated with surge-type flow instabilities largely independent of \r changes in climate (Sevestre and Benn, 2015; Bhambri et al., 2017; \r Section  2.3.2). Regional scale glacier mass gain and advances in \r [...]"


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"[...] Norway in the 1990s and in New Zealand between 1983-2008 have \r been linked to local increases in snow precipitation (Andreassen \r et al., 2005) and lower air temperatures (Mackintosh et al., 2017), \r respectively, caused by changes in atmospheric circulation. Advances \r of some glaciers in Alaska, the Andes, Kamchatka and the Caucasus \r were attributed to volcanic activity causing flow acceleration through \r enhanced melt water at the ice-bed interface (Barr et al., 2018)."


id: 2de93accead7e482799a5a1d33d69ae8
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5357
content:
"These estimates combined with available regional estimates \r (Table  2.A.1) indicate that the glacier mass budget of all mountain \r regions (excluding Antarctica, Greenland, the Canadian and \r Russian Arctic, and Svalbard) was very likely -490 +- 100 kg m-2 yr-1\r (-123 +- 24 Gt yr-1) during the period 2006-2015 with most negative \r averages (less than -850 kg m-2 yr-1) in the Southern Andes, Caucasus/\r Middle East, European Alps and Pyrenees. High Mountain Asia shows \r the least negative mass budget (-150 +- 110 kg m-2 yr-1, Figure 2.4), \r but variations within the region are large with most negative regional \r balance estimates in Nyainqentanglha, Tibet (-620 +- 230 kg m-2 yr-1) \r and slightly positive balances in the Kunlun Mountains for the period \r 2000-2016 (Brun et al., 2017). Due to large ice extent, the total \r mass loss and corresponding contribution to sea level 2006-2015 is \r largest in Alaska, followed by the Southern Andes and High Mountain \r [...]"


id: f4afeb1c2c050f80799f8fba145c22b3
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40426
content:
"[...] Asia (Table 2.A.1). Zemp et al. (2019) estimated an increase in mean \r global-scale glacier mass loss by ~30% between 1986-2005 and \r 2006-2015."


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vector_id: 15431
content:
"Other factors, such as changes in meteorological variables other \r than air temperature or internal glacier dynamics, have modified \r the temperature-induced glacier response in some regions (high \r confidence). For example, glacier mass loss over the last seven \r decades on a glacier in the European Alps was intensified by higher \r air moisture leading to increased longwave irradiance and reduced \r sublimation (Thibert et al., 2018). Changes in air moisture have also \r been found to play a significant role in past glacier mass changes \r in eastern Africa (Prinz et al., 2016), while an increase in shortwave \r radiation due to reduced cloud cover contributed to an acceleration \r in glacier recession in the Caucasus (Toropov et al., 2019). In the \r Tien Shan mountains changes in atmospheric circulation in the \r North Atlantic and North Pacific in the 1970s resulted in an abrupt \r reduction in precipitation and thus snow accumulation, amplifying \r [...]"


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"The projected global-scale relative mass losses 2015-2100 correspond to a sea level contribution of 94 (likely range 69-119) mm sea \r level equivalent (SLE) corresponding to an average rate of 1.1 (likely range 0.8-1.4) mm SLE yr-1 for RCP2.6, and 200 (likely range \r 156 to 240) mm SLE, a rate of 2.4 (likely range 1.8-2.8) mm SLE yr-1 for RCP8.5, in addition to the sea level contribution from the \r Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (Chapter 4). Averages refer to the mean and ranges to +- one standard deviation of all simulations. \r For RCP2.6, rates increase only slightly until approximately year 2040 with a steady decline thereafter, as glaciers retreat to higher \r elevations and reach new equilibrium. In contrast, for RCP8.5, the sea level contribution from glaciers increases steadily for most of \r the century, reaching an average maximum rate exceeding 3 mm SLE yr-1 (Hock et al., 2019). For both RCPs the polar regions are the \r [...]"


id: 4267ffb4dd2673ce77ecd6f4f14f2004
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] largest contributors with projected mass reductions by 2100 relative to 2015 combined for the Antarctic periphery, Arctic Canada, the \r Greenland periphery, Iceland, Russian Arctic, Scandinavia and Svalbard ranging from 16% (likely range 9 to 23%) for RCP2.6 to 33% \r (likely range 22 to 44%) for RCP8.5. Due to extensive ice cover, these regions make up roughly 80% of the global sea level contribution \r from glaciers by 2100. The global projections are similar to those reported in AR5 for the period 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005, \r if differences in period length and domain are accounted for (AR5's glacier estimates excluded the Antarctic periphery). The eleven \r mountain regions covered in Chapter 2 are likely to lose 22-44% of their glacier mass by 2100 relative to 2015 for RCP2.6 and \r 37-57% for RCP8.5. Worldwide many glaciers are expected to disappear by 2100 regardless emission scenario, especially in regions \r [...]"


id: 72929dff58691ad6dbc8b77e9fe0246e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] with smaller glaciers (very high confidence) (Cullen et al. 2013; Rabatel et al., 2013; Huss and Fischer, 2016; Rabatel et al., 2017)."


id: 98b1124cbc861a2b2bd6bbe5ce64dc41
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24081
content:
"AR5 and IPCC's Special Report on 'Managing the Risks of Extreme \r Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation' \r (SREX) assessed permafrost change globally, but not separately \r for mountains. AR5 concluded that permafrost temperatures had \r increased in most regions since the early 1980s (high confidence), \r although warming rates varied regionally, and attributed this \r warming to increased air temperature and changes in snow cover \r (high confidence). The temperature increase for colder permafrost \r was generally greater than for warmer permafrost (high confidence). \r SREX found a likely warming of permafrost in recent decades and \r expressed high confidence that its temperatures will continue to \r increase. AR5 found decreases of northern high-latitude near surface \r permafrost for 2016-2035 to be very likely and a general retreat of \r permafrost extent for the end of the 21st century and beyond to be \r virtually certain. While some permafrost phenomena, methods of \r [...]"


id: f62a445efe83d9db31ca57dc091b5b00
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40668
content:
"[...] observation and scale issues in scenario simulations are specific to \r mountainous terrain, the basic mechanisms connecting climate and \r permafrost are the same in mountains and polar regions."


id: 1e84046be20b5e692843efe3f1ebfcae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2570
content:
"During recent decades, the velocity of rock glaciers in the European \r Alps exceeded values of the late 20th century (limited evidence, high \r agreement). Some rock glaciers, that is, masses of ice-rich debris \r that show evidence of past or present movement, show increasing \r velocity as a transient response to warming and water input, although \r continued permafrost degradation would eventually inactivate them \r (Ikeda and Matsuoka, 2002). Rock glacier velocities observed in the \r European Alps in the 1990s were on the order of a few decimetres \r per year and during approximately the past 15 years they often \r were about 2-10 times higher (Bodin et al., 2009; Lugon and Stoffel, \r 2010; PERMOS, 2016). Destabilisation, including collapse and rapid \r acceleration, has been documented (Delaloye et al., 2010; Buchli \r et al., 2013; Bodin et al., 2016). One particularly long time series \r shows velocities around 1960 just slightly lower than during recent \r [...]"


id: 3fc61b38712a1c3e9076baff72fa0350
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8413
content:
"[...] years (Hartl et al., 2016). In contrast to nearby glaciers, no clear \r change in rock glacier velocity or elevation was detected at a site in \r the Andes between 1955-1996 (Bodin et al., 2010). The majority of \r similar landforms investigated in the Alaska Brooks Range increased \r their velocity since the 1950s, while few others slowed down (Darrow \r et al., 2016)."


id: 9a03ce28bf60e0dc532f8cfa857b55c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24334
content:
"widely in their representation of climate change and permafrost. \r They reveal regional and elevational differences of warming and \r degradation (Bonnaventure and Lewkowicz, 2011; Hipp et al., 2012; \r Farbrot et al., 2013) as well as warming rates that differ between \r locations (Marmy et al., 2016) and seasons (Marmy et al., 2013). \r While structural differences in simulations preclude a  quantitative \r summary, these studies agree on increasing warming and thaw \r of permafrost for the 21st century and reveal increased loss of \r permafrost under stronger atmospheric warming (Chadburn et al., \r 2017). Permafrost thaw at depth is slow but can be accelerated by \r mountain peaks warming from multiple sides (Noetzli and Gruber, \r 2009) and deep percolation of water (Hasler et al., 2011). Near Mont \r Blanc in the European Alps, narrow peaks below 3,850 m a.s.l. may \r lose permafrost entirely under RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century \r [...]"


id: b76fa8480b16fc97ebd87b0841472f08
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 29484
content:
"[...] (Magnin et al., 2017). As ground-ice from permafrost usually melts \r slower than glacier ice, some mountain regions will transition from \r having abundant glaciers to having few and small glaciers but large \r areas of permafrost that is thawing (Haeberli et al., 2017)."


id: 8ff02f41f45076854507f2fd96f403f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22532
content:
"For example, Cai et al. (2019) reported shorter ice cover duration \r for 40 lakes and longer duration for 18 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau \r during the period 2000-2017. Similarly, using microwave remote \r sensing, Du et al. (2017) found shorter ice cover duration for 43 out \r of 71 lakes >50 km2 including lakes on the Tibetan Plateau during \r 2002-2015, but only five of these had statistically significant trends \r (p < 0.05), due to large interannual variability. The variable trends in \r the duration of lake ice cover on the Tibetan Plateau between 2002-\r 2015 corresponded to variable trends in surface water temperatures. \r Of 52 study lakes in this region, 31 lakes showed a mean warming \r rate of 0.055 +- 0.033oC yr-1, and 21 lakes showed a mean cooling \r rate of -0.053 +- 0.038oC yr-1 during 2001-2012 (Zhang et al., 2014). \r Kainz et al. (2017) reported a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the \r interannual variability in ice cover duration for a subalpine lake \r [...]"


id: c9c5082136c66452ce34e9c531018711
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32829
content:
"[...] in Austria during 1921-2015 in addition to a significant trend in \r later freeze on, earlier ice break up and shorter ice cover duration. "


id: 1664627e310ba7e7b79f29168224b01e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1153
content:
"The cryosphere interacts with the environment and contributes to several climate feedbacks, most notably ones involving \r the snow cover, referred to as the snow albedo feedback. The presence or absence of snow on the ground drives profound changes in \r the energy budget of land surfaces, hence influencing the physical state of the overlying atmosphere (Armstrong and Brun, 2008).\r The reduction of snow on the ground, potentially amplified by aerosol deposition and modulated by interactions with the vegetation, \r increases the absorption of incoming solar radiation and leads to atmospheric warming. In mountain regions, this positive feedback \r loop mostly operates at the local scale and is seasonally variable, with most visible effects at the beginning and end of the snow \r season (Scherrer et al., 2012). Examples of other mechanisms contributing to local feedbacks are introduced in Box 2.1. At the regional \r [...]"


id: b3ba3c7b9316e02d6b8f2039b840ee33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28866
content:
"[...] scale, feedbacks associated with deposition of light absorbing particles and enhanced snow albedo feedback were shown to induce\r surface air warming (locally up to 2oC) (Menegoz et al., 2014) with accelerated snow cover reduction (Ji, 2016; Xu et al., 2016), and \r may also influence the Asian monsoon system (Yasunari et al., 2015). However, many of these studies have considered so-called \r rapid adjustments, without changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, because they used regional or global models\r constrained by large-scale synoptic fields. In summary, regional climate feedbacks involving the high mountain cryosphere, particularly \r the snow albedo feedback, have only been detected in large mountain regions such as the Himalaya, using global and regional climate \r models (medium confidence)."


id: 99d7e31c06aad5dac287e44a5ad2279e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24293
content:
"Global-scale climate feedbacks from the cryosphere remain largely unexplored with respect to the proportion originating from \r high mountains. Although mountain topography affects global climate (e.g.,  Naiman et al., 2017), there is little evidence for \r mountain-cryosphere specific feedbacks, largely because of the limited spatial extent of the mountain cryosphere. The most relevant \r feedback probably relates to permafrost in mountains, which contain about 28% of the global permafrost area (Section 2.2.4). Organic \r carbon stored in permafrost can be decayed following thaw and transferred to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or methane (Schuur \r et al., 2015). This self-reinforcing effect accelerates the pace of climate change and operates in polar (Section 3.4.1.2.3) and mountain \r areas alike (Mu et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2018a). In contrast to polar areas, however, there is limited evidence and low agreement on \r [...]"


id: 282246ceaf673ce6c9c672bdbbb60da0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 4258
content:
"[...] the total amount of permafrost carbon in mountains because of differences in upscaling and difficulties to distinguish permafrost \r and seasonally frozen soils due to the lack of data. For example, on the Tibetan Plateau, the top 3 m of permafrost are estimated to \r contain about 15 petagrams (Ding et al., 2016) and mountain soils with permafrost globally are estimated to contain approximately \r 66 petagrams of organic carbon (Bockheim and Munroe, 2014). At the same time, there is limited evidence and high agreement that \r the average density (kg C m-2) of permafrost carbon in mountains is lower than in other areas. For example, densities of soil organic \r carbon are low in the sub-arctic Ural (Dymov et al., 2015) and 1-2 orders of magnitude lower in subarctic Sweden (Fuchs et al.,\r 2015) in comparison to lowland permafrost, and 50% lower in mountains than in steppe-tundra in Siberia and Alaska (Zimov et al., \r [...]"


id: 6ed10003cbed5c5713c7761b13c63fbb
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content:
"[...] 2006). Some mechanisms of soil carbon decay and transfer to the atmosphere in mountains are similar to those in lowland areas, for \r example collapse following thaw in peatlands (Mu et al., 2016; Mamet et al., 2017), and some are specific to areas with steep slopes, \r for example drainage of water from thawing permafrost leading to soil aeration (Dymov et al., 2015). There is no global-scale analysis \r of the climate feedback from permafrost in mountains. Given that projections indicate increasing thaw and degradation of permafrost \r in mountains during the 21st century (very high confidence) (Section 2.2.4), a corresponding increase in greenhouse gas emissions \r can be anticipated but is not quantified."


id: bb084221912a95346e40a613d9e438e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30127
content:
"These contrasting trends for summer and annual runoff often result \r from spatially variable changes in the contribution of glacier and \r snow melt. As glaciers shrink, annual glacier runoff typically first \r increases, until a turning point, often called 'peak water' is reached, \r upon which runoff declines (FAQ 2.1). There is robust evidence and \r high agreement that peak water in glacier-fed rivers has already \r passed with annual runoff declining especially in mountain regions \r with predominantly smaller glaciers, for example, in the tropical \r Andes (Frans et al., 2015; Polk et al., 2017), Western Canada (Fleming \r and Dahlke, 2014; Brahney et al., 2017) and the Swiss Alps (Huss \r and Fischer, 2016). A global modelling study (Huss and Hock, 2018) \r suggests that peak water has been reached before 2019 for 82-95% \r of the glacier area in the tropical Andes, 40-49% in Western Canada \r and USA, and 55-67% in Central Europe (including European Alps \r [...]"


id: f47c6165ab55290332cfc30b0b454365
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40388
content:
"In addition to changes in ice and snow melt, changes in other \r variables such as precipitation and evapotranspiration due to \r atmospheric warming or vegetation change affect runoff amounts \r and timing (e.g., Bocchiola, 2014; Lutz et al., 2016). Changes in melt \r water from ice and snow often dominates the runoff response to \r climate change at higher elevations, while changes in precipitation \r and evapotranspiration become increasingly important at lower \r elevations (Kormann et al., 2015). Permafrost thaw may affect runoff \r by releasing water from ground ice (Jones et al., 2018) and indirectly \r by changing hydrological pathways or ground water recharge as \r permafrost degrades (Lamontagne-Halle et al., 2018). The relative \r importance of runoff from thawing permafrost compared to runoff \r from melting glaciers is expected to be greatest in arid areas where \r permafrost tends to be more abundant (Gruber et al., 2017). Because \r [...]"


id: 919fb062862fd63d35cd7c1adffc83f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22847
content:
"[...] glaciers react more rapidly to climate change than permafrost, runoff \r in some mountain landscapes may become increasingly affected by \r permafrost thaw in the future (Jones et al., 2018)."


id: c5ac81143d703adcf582052706561cec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 32085
content:
"Projections indicate a continued increase in winter runoff in many \r snow and/or glacier-fed rivers over the 21st century (high confidence) \r regardless of the climate scenario, for example, in North America \r (Schnorbus et al., 2014; Sultana and Choi, 2018), the European Alps \r (Addor et al., 2014; Bosshard et al., 2014), Scotland (Capell et al., \r 2014) and High Mountain Asia (Kriegel et al., 2013) due to increased \r winter snowmelt and more precipitation falling as rain in addition to \r increases in precipitation in some basins (Table SM2.9). There is robust \r evidence (high agreement) that summer runoff will decline over the \r 21st century in many basins for all emission scenarios, for example, \r in Western Canada and USA (Shrestha et al., 2017), the European \r Alps (Jenicek et al., 2018), High Mountain Asia (Prasch et al., 2013; \r Engelhardt et al., 2017) and the tropical Andes (Baraer et al., 2012), \r due to less snowfall and decreases in glacier melt after peak water. \r [...]"


id: 2ac9434f645b612d1bb8c0b01c95e1a7
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content:
"[...] A global-scale projection suggests that decline in glacier runoff by \r 2100 (RCP8.5) may reduce basin runoff by 10% or more in at least \r one month of the melt season in several large river basins, especially \r in High Mountain Asia during dry seasons, despite glacier cover of \r less than a few percent (Huss and Hock, 2018)."


id: 807a0281d838eda03497146186e6a794
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Figure 2.6 |  Timing of peak water from glaciers in different regions (Figure 2.1) under two emission scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6 and \r RCP8.5. Peak water refers to the year when annual runoff from the initially glacier-covered area will start to decrease due to glacier shrinkage after a period of melt induced \r increase. The bars are based on Huss and Hock (2018) who used a global glacier model to compute the runoff of all individual glaciers in a region until year 2100 based on \r 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs). Depicted is the area of all glaciers that fall into the same 10-year peak water interval expressed as a percentage of each region's \r total glacier area, i.e., all bars for the same RCP sum up to 100% glacier area. Shadings of the bars distinguish different glacier sizes indicating a tendency for peak water \r [...]"


id: 7cb7c7c38070ebf346e85c9e3b020b54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 19138
content:
"[...] to occur later for larger glaciers. Circles/diamonds mark timing of peak water from individual case studies based on observations or modelling (Table SM2.10). Circles refer \r to results from individual glaciers regardless of size or a collection of glaciers covering <150 km2\r  in total, while diamonds refer to regional-scale results from a collection of \r glaciers with >150 km2\r  glacier coverage. Case studies based on observations or scenarios other than RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 are shown in both the left and right set of panels."


id: 2adf5199227f3ebb6137864d58f5cc52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4777
content:
"Melting glaciers can affect river runoff, and thus freshwater resources available to human communities, not only \r close to the glacier but also far from mountain areas. As glaciers shrink in response to a warmer climate, water \r is released from long-term glacial storage. At first, glacier runoff increases because the glacier melts faster and \r more water flows downhill from the glacier. However, there will be a turning point after several years or decades, \r often called 'peak water', after which glacier runoff and hence its contribution to river flow downstream will \r decline (FAQ 2.1; Figure 1). Peak water runoff from glaciers can exceed the amount of initial yearly runoff by \r 50% or more. This excess water can be used in different ways, such as for hydropower or irrigation. After the \r turning point, this additional water decreases steadily as the glacier continues to shrink, and eventually stops \r [...]"


id: c0e8944f8d49b381ca5fecc6d59d9433
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content:
"[...] when the glacier has disappeared, or retreated to higher elevations where it is still cold enough for the glacier \r to survive. As a result, communities downstream lose this valuable additional source of water. Total amounts of \r river runoff will then depend mainly on rainfall, snowmelt, ground water and evaporation."


id: 23870fd8927558b7fa5852bbcbfea37c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 3452
content:
"Of the heavy metals, mercury is of particular concern and an estimated \r 2.5 tonnes has been released by glaciers to downstream ecosystems \r across the Tibetan Plateau over the last 40 years (Zhang et al., 2012). \r Mercury in glacial silt, originating from grinding of rocks as the \r glacier flows over them, can be as large or larger than the mercury \r flux from melting ice due to anthropogenic sources deposited on the \r glacier (Zdanowicz et al., 2013). Both glacier erosion and atmospheric \r deposition contributed to the high rates of total mercury export found \r in a glacierised watershed in coastal Alaska (Vermilyea et al., 2017) \r and mercury output is predicted to increase in glacierised mountain \r catchments (Sun et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2018b) (medium confidence). \r However, a key issue is how much of this glacier-derived mercury, \r largely in the particulate form, is converted to toxic methyl mercury \r downstream. Methyl mercury can be incorporated into aquatic food \r [...]"


id: 9cfd560072818bd0b40f259c747146fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24859
content:
"[...] webs in glacier streams (Nagorski et al., 2014) and bio-magnify up \r the food chain (Lavoie et al., 2013). Water originating from rock \r glaciers can also contribute other heavy metals that exceed guideline \r values for drinking water quality (Thies et al., 2013). In addition, \r permafrost degradation can enhance the release of other trace \r elements (e.g., aluminium, manganese and nickel) (Colombo et al., \r 2018). Indeed, projections indicate that all scenarios of future climate \r change will enhance the mobilisation of metals in metamorphic \r mountain catchments (Zaharescu et al., 2016). The release of toxic \r contaminants, particularly where glacial melt waters are used for \r irrigation and drinking water in the Himalayas and the Andes, is \r potentially harmful to human health both now and in the future \r (Hodson, 2014) (medium confidence)."


id: 5c797a903e0b3dd1fa57b7b219010007
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13530
content:
"Hydropower comprises about 16% of electricity generation globally \r but close to 100%, in many mountainous countries (Hamududu \r and Killingtveit, 2012; IHA, 2018). It represents a significant source \r of revenue for mountainous regions (Gaudard et al., 2016). Due \r to the dependence on water resources as key input, hydropower \r operations are expected to be affected by changes in runoff from \r glaciers and snow cover (Section 2.3.1.1, FAQ 2.1). Both increases \r and decreases in annual and/or seasonal water input to hydropower \r facilities have been recorded in several high mountain regions, for \r example, in Switzerland (Hanggi and Weingartner, 2012; Schaefli \r et al., 2019), Canada (Jost et al., 2012; Jost and Weber, 2013), Iceland \r (Einarsson and Jonsson, 2010) and High Mountain Asia (Ali et al., \r 2018). However, there is only limited evidence (medium agreement) \r that changes in runoff have led to changes in hydropower plant \r [...]"


id: ac97a816ea31501bc85c0d827f2a67a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 27609
content:
"[...] operation. For example, in Iceland, the National Power Company \r observed in 2005 that flows into their energy system were greater \r than historical flows. By incorporating the most recent runoff data \r into strategies for reservoir management it was possible to increase \r production capacity (Braun and Fournier, 2016)."


id: b62a079dc703a70de3f2756195e2f821
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29271
content:
"Soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations in rivers downstream of \r glaciers are predicted to decrease with declining glacier coverage (Hood \r et al., 2009) as a large percentage is associated with glacier-derived \r suspended sediment (Hawkings et al., 2016). In contrast, dissolved \r organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved \r organic nitrogen concentrations in pro-glacial rivers is projected to \r increase this century due to glacier shrinkage (Hood et al., 2015; \r Milner et al., 2017) (robust evidence, medium agreement). Globally, \r mountain glaciers are estimated to release about 0.8 Tera g C yr-1\r (Li et al., 2018) of highly bioavailable DOC that may be incorporated \r into downstream food webs (Fellman et al., 2015; Hood et al., 2015). \r Loss rates of DOC from glaciers in the high mountains of the Tibetan \r Plateau were estimated to be ~0.19 Tera g C yr-1, (Li et al., 2018) \r higher than other regions suggesting that DOC is released more \r [...]"


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vector_id: 22134
content:
"[...] efficiently from Asian mountain glaciers (Liu et al., 2016). Glacier \r DOC losses are expected to accelerate as they shrink, leading to "


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"There is medium evidence (high agreement) that changes in glacier\u0002and moraine-dammed lakes, and changes in sediment supply will \r affect hydropower generation (Colonia et al., 2017; Hauer et al., \r 2018). Many glacier lakes have increased in volume, and can damage \r hydropower infrastructure when they empty suddenly (Engeset \r et al., 2005; Jackson and Ragulina, 2014; Carrivick and Tweed, 2016) \r (Section  2.3.2; Figure 2.7). If large enough, hydropower reservoirs \r can reduce the downstream negative impacts of changes in the \r cryosphere by storing and providing freshwater during hot, dry \r periods or by alleviating the effects of glacier floods (Jackson and \r Ragulina, 2014; Colonia et al., 2017). In mountain rivers, sediment \r volume and type depend on connectivity between hillslopes and the \r valley floor (Carrivick et al., 2013), glacier activity (Lane et al., 2017) \r and on water runoff regime feedbacks with river channel dynamics \r [...]"


id: f6441abc71c81b966a7f3b30b87a58b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] (Schmidt and Morche, 2006). An increase in suspended sediment \r loading under current reservoir operating policies is projected for \r some hydropower facilities, for example, in British Columbia and \r Northern Washington (Lee et al., 2016). "


id: 4cce7281b192dce63f4e0d2da7d32233
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In addition to the effects on agriculture of changing availability of \r irrigation water, reductions in snow cover can also impact agriculture \r through its direct effects on soil moisture, as reported for Nepal, \r where lesser snow cover has led to the drying of soils and lower \r yields of potatoes and fodder (Smadja et al., 2015). Agriculture in high \r mountain areas is sensitive to other climatic drivers as well. Rising air \r temperatures increase crop evapotranspiration, thus increasing water \r demand for crop production to maintain optimal yield (Beniston and \r Stoffel, 2014). They are also associated with upslope movement of \r cropping zones, which favours some farmers in high mountain areas, \r who are increasingly able to cultivate new crops, such as onions, \r garlic and apples in Nepal (Huntington et al., 2017; Hussain et al., \r 2018), and maize in Ecuador (Skarbo and VanderMolen, 2014). Dry \r spells and unseasonal frosts have also impacted agriculture in Peru \r [...]"


id: 38c3dc90b22e6a90457f28f8699e80f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Adaptation activities in mountain agriculture related at least partially \r to cryospheric changes are detailed in Table SM2.12 and their \r geographic spread shown in Figure  2.9. Agriculture in these areas \r is sensitive to non-climate drivers as well, such as market forces \r and political pressures (Montana et al., 2016; Sietz and Feola, 2016; \r Figueroa-Armijos and Valdivia, 2017) and shifts in water governance \r (Rasmussen, 2016). The majority of the adaptation activities are \r autonomous, though some are planned or carried out with support \r from national governments, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), \r or international aid organisations. Though many studies report on \r benefits from these activities which accrue to community members \r as increased harvests and income, systematic evaluations of these \r adaptation strategies are generally lacking. A range of factors, \r discussed below, place barriers which limit the scale and scope of \r [...]"


id: ba7b242750108ea41fcb14637b04b585
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] these activities in the mountain agricultural sector, including a lack \r of finance and technical knowledge,  low adaptive capacity within \r communities, ill-equipped state organisations, ambiguous property \r rights and inadequate institutional and market support (medium \r evidence, high agreement). Section  2.3.7 examines two other \r responses to decreasing irrigation water: wage labour migration, \r which often serves as an adaptation strategy, and displacement of "


id: 84f2e804afc78ce6279b3b37c491b51f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"To cope with the reduced water supplies, planted areas have been \r reduced in a number of different places in Nepal (Gentle and \r Maraseni, 2012; Sujakhu et al., 2016). Adaptation responses within \r irrigation systems include the adoption of new irrigation technologies \r or upgrading existing technologies, adopting water conservation \r measures, water rationing, constructing water storage infrastructure, \r and change in cropping patterns (Rasul et al., 2019; Figure 2.9). Water \r delivery technologies which reduce loss are adopted in Chile (Young \r et al., 2010) and Peru (Orlove et al., 2019). Similarly, greenhouses \r have been adopted in Nepal (Konchar et al., 2015) to reduce \r evapotranspiration and frost damage, though limited access to finance \r is a barrier to these activities. Box 2.3 describes innovative irrigation \r practices in India. Local pastoral communities have responded \r to these challenges with techniques broadly similar to those in \r [...]"


id: 7209f1b8e99ad4967530d6f8caae3a85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] agricultural settings by expanding irrigation facilities, for example, \r in Switzerland (Fuhrer et al., 2014). In addition to adopting new \r technologies, some water users make investments to tap more distant \r sources of irrigation water. Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1 discusses \r such efforts in Northern Pakistan, where landslides, associated with \r cryosphere change, have also damaged irrigation systems. "


id: 78e33b5a788673fd1a4f9d1a4732b3e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18458
content:
"The adoption of new crops and varieties is an adaptation response \r found in several regions. Farmers in northwest India have increased \r production of lentils and vegetables, which provide important \r nutrients to the local diet, with support from government watershed \r improvement programs which help address decreased availability \r of irrigation water, though stringent requirements for participation \r in the programs have limited access by poor households to this \r assistance (Dame and Nusser, 2011). Farmers who rely on irrigation \r in the Naryn River basin in Kyrgyzstan have shifted from the water \r intensive fruits and vegetables to fodder crops such as barley and \r alfalfa, which are more profitable. Upstream communities, with \r greater access to water and more active local institutions, are more \r willing to experiment with new crops than those further downstream \r (Hill et al., 2017). In other areas, crop choices also reflect responses \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] to rising temperatures along with new market opportunities such as \r the demand for fresh vegetables by tourists in Nepal (Konchar et al., \r 2015; Dangi et al., 2018) and the demand for roses in urban areas in \r Peru (SENASA, 2017). Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge \r (Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1), access to local and regional seed \r supply networks, proximity to agricultural extension and support \r services also facilitate the adoption of new crops (Skarbo and \r VanderMolen, 2014)."


id: d933740b6c1fb967795d086701344f95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35509
content:
"Lowland agricultural areas which receive irrigation water from rivers \r fed by glacier melt and snowmelt are projected to face negative \r impacts in some regions (limited evidence, high agreement). In \r the Rhone basin in Switzerland, many irrigated pasture areas are \r projected to face water deficits by 2050, under the A1B scenario \r (Fuhrer et al., 2014; Cross Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). For California \r and the southwestern USA, a shift to peak snowmelt earlier in the \r year would create more frequent floods, and a reduced ability of \r existing reservoirs to store water by 2050 under RCP8.5 (Pagan et al., \r 2016) and by 2100 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Pathak \r et al., 2018). The economic values of these losses have been estimated \r at 10.8-48.6  billion USD by around 2050 (Sturm et al., 2017). \r A similar transition to runoff peaks earlier in the year by 2100 under \r RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, creating challenges for management of \r [...]"


id: 1017e11f26e31d617f5585119f980129
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] irrigation water, has been reported for the countries in central Asia \r which are dependent on snow cover and glaciers of the Tien Shan \r (Xenarios et al., 2018). In India and Pakistan, where over 100 million \r farmers receive irrigation from the Indus and Ganges Rivers, which \r also have significant inputs from glaciers and snowmelt, also face \r risks of decreasing water supplies from cryosphere change by 2100 \r (Biemans et al., 2019; Rasul and Molden, 2019)."


id: bff8bacba364bbdb0133e450227dfec3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31064
content:
"To cope with seasonal water scarcity at critical times for irrigation, villagers in the region have developed four types of artificial ice \r reservoirs: basins, cascades, diversions and a form known locally as ice stupas. All these types of ice reservoirs capture water in the \r autumn and winter, allowing it to freeze, and hold it until spring, when it melts and flows down to fields (Clouse et al., 2017; Nusser \r et al., 2018). In this way, they retain a previously unused portion of the annual flow and facilitate its use to supplement the decreased \r flow in the following spring (Vince, 2009; Shaheen, 2016). Frozen basins are formed from water which is conveyed across a slope \r through channels and check dams to shaded surface depressions near the villages. Cascades and diversions direct water to pass over \r stone walls, slowing its movement and allowing it to freeze. Ice stupas direct water through pipes into fountains, where it freezes \r [...]"


id: 683cc46b3dcc91bac4a880e1e7267752
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"[...] into conical shapes (Box 2.3 Figure 1). These techniques use local materials and draw on local knowledge (Nusser and Baghel, 2016). "


id: 6ea82978c47cbb84c2304f85c2dbb6f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16735
content:
"The contribution of glacier water to the water supply of La Paz, \r Bolivia, between 1963-2006 was assessed at 15% annually and 27% \r during the dry season (Soruco et al., 2015), though rising as high as \r 86% during extreme drought months (Buytaert and De Bievre, 2012). \r Despite a 50% area loss, the glacier retreat has not contributed to \r reduced water supplies for the city, because increased melt rates \r have compensated for reductions in glacier volume. However, for \r a complete disappearance of the glaciers, assuming no change in \r precipitation, a reduction in annual runoff by 12% and 24% in the \r dry season was projected (Soruco et al., 2015) similar to reductions \r projected by 2050 under a RCP8.5 scenario for a basin in southern \r Peru (Drenkhan et al., 2019). Huaraz and Huancayo in Peru are other \r cities with high average contribution of melt water to surface water \r resources (up to ~20%; Buytaert et al., 2017) and rapid glacier retreat \r [...]"


id: 6fc95b865b156a9801a8ecba1c96e51c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16926
content:
"A key risk factor that influences how water is managed and \r governed, rests on existing and unresolved conflicts that may or \r may not necessarily arise exclusively from demands over shared \r water resources, raising tensions within and across borders in river \r basins influenced by snow and glacier melt (Valdes-Pineda et al., \r 2014; Bocchiola et al., 2017). For example, in Central Asia, competing \r demand for water for hydropower and irrigation between upstream \r and downstream countries has raised tensions (Bernauer and \r Siegfried, 2012; Bocchiola et al., 2017). Similarly, competing demand \r for water is also reported in Chile (Valdes-Pineda et al., 2014) and in \r Peru (Vuille, 2013; Drenkhan et al., 2015). Since AR5, some studies \r have examined the impacts and risks related to projections of \r cryosphere-related changes in streamflow in transboundary basins \r in the 21st century, and suggest that these changes create barriers in \r [...]"


id: 92431ba865bbc07a22bef7c7ca0f8f80
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content:
"[...] effectively managing water in some settings (medium confidence). For \r instance, within the transnational Indus River basin, climate change \r impacts may reduce streamflow by the end of this century, thus \r putting pressure on established water sharing arrangements between \r nations (Jamir, 2016) and subnational administrative units (Yang \r et al., 2014b). In this basin, management efforts may be hampered \r by current legal and regulatory frameworks for evaluating new dams, \r which do not take into account changes in streamflow that may \r result from climate change (Raman, 2018). Within the transnational \r Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins in Central Asia, competition for \r water between multiple uses, exacerbated by reductions in flow \r later in this century, may hamper future coordination (Reyer et al., \r 2017; Yu et al., 2019). However, other evidence from Central Asia \r suggests that relative water scarcity may not be the only factor to \r [...]"


id: f16bc9e47b8d797037a441e74a6333d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] exacerbate conflict in this region (Hummel, 2017). Overall, there is \r medium confidence in the ability to meet future water demands in \r some mountain regions, given the combined uncertainties associated \r with accurate projections of water supply in terms of availability and \r the diverse sociocultural and political contexts in which decisions on \r water access and distribution are taken.\r Since AR5, several studies highlight that integrated water \r management approaches, focused on the multipurpose use of water \r that includes water released from the cryosphere, are important as \r adaptation measures, particularly for sectors reliant on this water "


id: b327494a0db28eb1ed9a9a488e11a426
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28764
content:
"Overall, risks to water security and related vulnerabilities are highly \r heterogeneous varying even at small spatial scales with populations \r closer to the glaciers being more vulnerable, especially during dry \r months and droughts (Buytaert et al., 2017; Mark et al., 2017). \r A regional-scale modelling study including all of Bolivia, Ecuador and \r Peru (Buytaert et al., 2017) estimated that roughly 390,000 domestic \r water users, mostly in Peru, rely on a high (>25%) long-term average \r contribution from glacier melt, with this number rising to almost \r 4 million in the driest month of a drought year. Despite high confidence\r in declining longer-term melt water contributions from glaciers in the \r tropical Andes (Figure CB6.1), major uncertainties remain how these \r will affect future human water use. Regional-scale water balance \r simulations forced by multi-model climate projections (Buytaert and \r De Bievre, 2012), suggest a relatively limited effect of glacier retreat \r [...]"


id: e5ee93f3384a166e68aa12d96aee21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 37750
content:
"[...] on water supply in four major cities (Bogota, La Paz, Lima, Quito) \r due to the dominance of human factors influencing water supply \r (Carey et al., 2014; Mark et al., 2017; Vuille et al., 2018), though \r uncertainties are large. Population growth and limited funding for \r infrastructure maintenance exacerbate water scarcity, though water \r managers have established programs in Quito and in Huancayo and \r the Santa and Vilcanota basins (Peru) to improve water management \r through innovations in grey infrastructure and ecosystem-based \r adaptations (Buytaert and De Bievre, 2012; Buytaert et al., 2017; \r Somers et al., 2018)."


id: 2a41c57eddea1e704afd25d5852a2f86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4649
content:
"source to sustain energy production, agriculture, ecosystems and \r drinking water supply (Figure  2.9). These measures, backed by \r effective governance arrangements to support them, demonstrate \r an ability to address increasing challenges to water availability \r arising from climate change in the mountain cryosphere, providing \r co-benefits through the optimisation of storage and the release of \r water from high mountain reservoirs (medium confidence). Studies \r in Switzerland (e.g., Haeberli et al., 2016; Brunner et al., 2019), Peru \r (e.g., Barriga Delgado et al., 2018; Drenkhan et al., 2019), Central Asia \r (Jalilov et al., 2018) and Himalaya (Molden et al., 2014; Biemans et al., \r 2019) highlight the potential of water reservoirs in high mountains, \r including new reservoirs located in former glacier beds, alleviating \r seasonal water scarcity for multiple water usages. However, concerns \r are also raised in the environmental literature about their actual \r [...]"


id: ca2d5f4c875f3743a6e6fe5b41e59691
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content:
"[...] and potential negative impacts on local ecosystems and biodiversity \r hotspots, such as wetlands and peat bogs, which have been reported \r for small high mountain reservoirs, for example, in the European Alps \r (Evette et al., 2011) and for large dam construction projects in High \r Mountain Asia (e.g., Dharmadhikary, 2008)."


id: 703b17e77a7dd87c43dc5e646e48dd7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16997
content:
"Permafrost degradation and thaw as well as increased water flow \r into frozen slopes can increase the rate of movement of frozen \r debris bodies and lower their surface due to loss of ground ice \r (subsidence). Such processes affected engineered structures such \r as buildings, hazard protection structures, roads, or rail lines in all \r high mountains during recent decades (Section  2.3.4). Movement \r of frozen slopes and ground subsidence/heave are strongly related \r to ground temperature, ice content, and water input (Wirz et al., \r 2016; Kenner et al., 2017). Where massive ground ice gets exposed, \r retrogressive thaw erosion develops (Niu et al., 2012). The creep \r of rock glaciers (frozen debris tongues that slowly deform under \r gravity) is in principle expected to accelerate in response to rising \r ground temperatures, until substantial volumetric ice contents have \r melted out (Kaab et al., 2007; Arenson et al., 2015a). As documented \r [...]"


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"[...] for instance for sites in the European Alps and Scandinavia for recent \r years to decades, rock glaciers replenished debris flow starting zones \r at their fronts, so that the intensified material supply associated \r with accelerated movement (Section 2.2.4) contributed to increased \r debris flow activity (higher frequency, larger magnitudes) or slope \r destabilisation (Stoffel and Graf, 2015; Wirz et al., 2016; Kummert \r et al., 2017; Eriksen et al., 2018). "


id: 27edc9588fb65578cf3e7623c50cc979
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content:
"There is high confidence that the frequency of rocks detaching and \r falling from steep slopes (rock fall) has increased within zones of \r degrading permafrost over the past half-century, for instance in \r high mountains in North America, New Zealand, and Europe (Allen \r et al., 2011; Ravanel and Deline, 2011; Fischer et al., 2012; Coe et al., \r 2017). Compared to the SREX and AR5 reports, the confidence in this \r finding increased. Available field evidence agrees with theoretical \r considerations and calculations that permafrost thaw increases \r the likelihood of rock fall (and also rock avalanches, which have \r larger volumes compared to rock falls) (Gruber and Haeberli, 2007; \r Krautblatter et al., 2013). These conclusions are also supported by \r observed ice in the detachment zone of previous events in North \r America, Iceland and Europe (Geertsema et al., 2006; Phillips et al., \r 2017; Saemundsson et al., 2018). Summer heat waves have in recent \r [...]"


id: a7430ec9f914b3bd7151d638ae960b2e
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content:
"[...] years triggered rock instability with delays of only a few days or \r weeks in the European Alps (Allen and Huggel, 2013; Ravanel et al., \r 2017). This is in line with theoretical considerations about fast thaw \r of ice filled frozen fractures in bedrock (Hasler et al., 2011) and other \r climate impacts on rock stability, such as from large temperature \r variations (Luethi et al., 2015). Similarly, permafrost thaw increased \r the frequency and volumes of landslides from frozen sediments in \r many mountain regions in recent decades (Wei et al., 2006; Ravanel \r et al., 2010; Lacelle et al., 2015). At lower elevations in the French \r Alps, though, climate driven changes such as a reduction in number \r of freezing days are projected to lead to a reduction in debris flows \r (Jomelli et al., 2009)."


id: cb258c25a03fa63de33d1f9eb64ea6cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 33079
content:
"A range of slope instability types was found to be connected to glacier \r retreat (Allen et al., 2011; Evans and Delaney, 2015). Debris left \r behind by retreating glaciers (moraines) slid or collapsed, or formed \r fast flowing water-debris mixtures (debris flows) in recent decades, \r for instance in the European and New Zealand Alps (Zimmermann \r and Haeberli, 1992; Blair, 1994; Curry et al., 2006; Eichel et al., 2018). \r Over decades to millennia, or even longer, rock slopes adjacent to or \r formerly covered by glaciers, became unstable and in some cases, \r eventually collapsed. Related landslide activity increased in recently \r deglacierised zones in most high mountains (Korup et al., 2012; \r McColl, 2012; Deline et al., 2015; Kos et al., 2016; Serrano et al., \r 2018). For example, according to Cloutier et al. (2017) more than \r two-thirds of the large landslides that occurred in Northern British \r Columbia between 1973-2003, occurred on cirque walls that have \r [...]"


id: 67d4939af94a8fecb4a365d81ab6ec61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 15541
content:
"[...] been exposed after glacier retreat from the mid-19th century on. \r Ice-rich permafrost environments following glacial retreat enhanced \r slope mass movements (Oliva and Ruiz-Fernandez, 2015). At lower \r elevations, re-vegetation and rise of tree limit are able to stabilise \r shallow slope instabilities (Curry et al., 2006). Overall, there is high \r confidence that glacier retreat in general has in most high mountains \r destabilised adjacent debris and rock slopes over time scales from \r years to millennia, but robust statistics about current trends in this \r development are lacking. This finding reconfirms, and for some \r processes increases confidence in related findings from the SREX and \r AR5 reports."


id: fbdee64b7b2724cb88435510982bddd3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 41676
content:
"A rare type of glacier instability with large volumes (in the order of \r 10-100 million m3\r ) and high mobility (up to 200-300 km/h) results \r from the complete collapse of large sections of low-angle valley \r glaciers and subsequent combined ice/rock/debris avalanches. The \r largest of such glacier collapses have been reported in the Caucasus \r Mountains in 2002 (Kolka Glacier, ~130 fatalities) (Huggel et al., \r 2005; Evans et al., 2009), and in the Aru Range in Tibet in 2016 (twin \r glacier collapses with 9 fatalities) (Kaab et al., 2018). Although there \r is no evidence that climate change has played a direct role in the \r 2002 event, changes in glacier mass balance, water input into the \r glaciers, and the frozen regime of the glacier beds were involved in \r the 2016 collapses and at least partly linked with climate change \r (Gilbert et al., 2018). Besides the 2016 Tibet cases, it is unknown \r if such massive and rare collapse-like glacier instabilities can be \r [...]"


id: 2549ccb9c672c22a0fed8ab1cf6498d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3748
content:
"Ballesteros-Canovas et al. (2018) reported increased avalanche \r activity in some slopes of the Western Indian Himalaya over the \r past decades related to increased frequency of wet-snow conditions. \r In the European Alps, avalanche numbers and runout distance \r have decreased where snow depth decreased and air temperature \r increased (Teich et al., 2012; Eckert et al., 2013). In the European Alps \r and Tatras mountains, over past decades, there has been a decrease \r in avalanche mass and run-out distance and a decrease in avalanches \r with a powder part; avalanche numbers decreased below 2,000 m \r a.s.l., and increased above (Eckert et al., 2013; Lavigne et al., 2015; \r Gadek et al., 2017). A positive trend in the proportion of avalanches \r involving wet snow in December through February was shown for \r the last decades (Pielmeier et al., 2013; Naaim et al., 2016). Land use \r and land cover changes also contributed to changes in avalanches \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] (Garcia-Hernandez et al., 2017; Giacona et al., 2018). Correlations \r between avalanche activity and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation \r (ENSO) were identified from 1950-2011 in North and South America \r but there was no significant temporal trend reported for avalanche \r activity (McClung, 2013). Mostly inconclusive results were reported \r by Sinickas et al. (2015) and Bellaire et al. (2016) regarding the "


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content:
"In some regions, glacier surges constitute a recurring hazard, due \r to widespread, quasi-periodic and substantial increases in glacier \r speed over a period of a few months to years, often accompanied \r by glacier advance (Harrison et al., 2015; Sevestre and Benn, 2015). \r In a number of cases, mostly in North America and High Mountain \r Asia (Bevington and Copland, 2014; Round et al., 2017; Steiner et al., \r 2018), surge-related glacier advances dammed rivers, causing major \r floods. In rare cases, glacier surges directly inundated agricultural \r land and damaged infrastructure (Shangguan et al., 2016). Sevestre \r and Benn (2015) suggest that surging operates within a climatic \r envelope of temperature and precipitation conditions, and that shifts \r in these conditions can modify surge frequencies and magnitudes. \r Some glaciers have reduced or stopped surge activity, or are \r projected to do so within decades, as a consequence of negative \r [...]"


id: 24c13f78920d55ccd44b07b5352ceb80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] glacier mass balances (Eisen et al., 2001; Kienholz et al., 2017). For \r such cases, related hazards can also be expected to decrease. In \r contrast, intensive or increased surge activity (Hewitt, 2007; Gardelle \r et al., 2012; Yasuda and Furuya, 2015) occurred in a region on and "


id: 43c5f053cb43cdbeb1b78f89e59f7e8e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Future projections mostly indicate an overall decrease in snow depth \r and snow cover duration at lower elevation (Section 2.2.2), but the \r probability of occurrence of occasionally large snow precipitation \r events is projected to remain possible throughout most of the 21st \r century (Section 2.2.1). Castebrunet et al. (2014) estimated an overall \r 20 and 30% decrease of natural avalanche activity in the French Alps \r for the mid and end of the 21st century, respectively, under A1B \r scenario, compared to the reference period 1960-1990. Katsuyama \r et al. (2017) reached similar conclusions for Northern Japan, and \r Lazar and Williams (2008) for North America. Avalanches involving \r wet snow are projected to occur more frequently during the winter at \r all elevations due to surface melt or rain-on-snow (e.g., Castebrunet \r et al., 2014, for the French Alps), and the overall number and runout \r distance of snow avalanches is projected to decrease in regions \r [...]"


id: 878e873606be6afb553b237300428446
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21006
content:
"[...] and elevations experiencing significant reduction in snow cover \r (Mock et al., 2017). In summary, there is medium evidence and high \r agreement that observed changes in avalanches in mountain regions \r will be exacerbated in the future, with generally a decrease in hazard \r at lower elevation, and mixed changes at higher elevation (increase \r in avalanches involving wet snow, no clear direction of trend for \r overall avalanche activity)."


id: daa70f3e752d5127a1801bc5ba9d2759
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35762
content:
"In contrast to the number and size of glacier lakes, trends in the \r number of glacier-related floods are not well known for recent decades \r (Carrivick and Tweed, 2016; Harrison et al., 2018), although a number \r of periods of increased and decreased flood activity have been \r documented for individual glaciers in North America and Greenland, \r spanning decades (Geertsema and Clague, 2005; Russell et al., 2011). \r A decrease in moraine-dammed glacier lake outburst floods in recent \r decades suggests a response of lake outburst activity being delayed \r by some decades with respect to glacier retreat (Harrison et al., \r 2018) but inventories might significantly underestimate the number \r of events (Veh et al., 2018). For the Himalaya, Veh et al. (2019)161 \r found no increase in the number of glacier lake outburst floods since \r the late 1980s. The degradation of permafrost and the melting of ice \r buried in lake dams have been shown to lower dam stability and \r [...]"


id: e16fd450a213351bdfc9a679c210b96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] contribute to outburst floods in many high mountain regions (Fujita \r et al., 2013; Erokhin et al., 2017; Narama et al., 2017)."


id: f4013c13a174b4e59bb6ac91f47225a2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40301
content:
"Floods originating from the combination of rapidly melting snow and \r intense rainfall, referred to as rain-on-snow events, are some of the \r most damaging floods in mountain areas (Pomeroy et al., 2016; Il \r Jeong and Sushama, 2018). The hydrological response of a catchment \r to a rain-on-snow event depends on the characteristics of the \r precipitation event, but also on turbulent fluxes driven by wind and \r humidity, which typically provide most of the melting energy during \r such events (Pomeroy et al., 2016), and the state of the snowpack, in \r  particular the liquid water content (Wurzer et al., 2016). An increase \r in the occurrence of rain-on-snow events in high-elevation zones, and \r a decrease at the lowest elevations have been reported (Western USA, \r 1949-2003, McCabe et al. (2007); Oregon, 1986-2010, Surfleet and \r Tullos (2013); Switzerland, 1972-2016, Moran-Tejeda et al. (2016), \r central Europe, 1950-2010, Freudiger et al. (2014)). These trends \r [...]"


id: 2e0e0260f140ed6f7cb44b77a4124b1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5376
content:
"[...] are consistent with studies carried out at the scale of the Northern \r Hemisphere (Putkonen and Roe, 2003; Ye et al., 2008; Cohen et al., \r 2015). There are no studies found on this topic in Africa and South \r America. In summary, evidence since AR5 suggests that rain-on\u0002snow events have increased over the last decades at high elevations, \r particularly during transition periods from autumn to winter and \r winter to spring (medium confidence). The occurrence of rain-on\u0002snow events has decreased over the last decade in low-elevation or \r low-latitude areas due to a decreasing duration of the snowpack, \r except for the coldest months of the year (medium confidence)."


id: 28a2c2b380d8d52cc03b9727aa6e67e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Glacier-related floods, including floods from lake outbursts (GLOFs), \r are documented for most glacierised mountain ranges and are among \r the most far-reaching glacier hazards. Past events affected areas \r tens to hundreds of kilometres downstream (Carrivick and Tweed, \r 2016). Retreating glaciers produced lakes at their fronts in many high \r mountain regions in recent decades (Frey et al., 2010; Gardelle et al., \r 2011; Loriaux and Casassa, 2013). Lake systems in High Mountain \r Asia also often developed on the surface of downwasting, low-slope \r glaciers where they coalesced from temporally variable supraglacial \r lakes (Benn et al., 2012; Narama et al., 2017). Corroborating SREX \r and AR5 findings, there is high confidence that current global glacier \r shrinkage caused new lakes to form and existing lakes to grow in \r most regions, for instance in South America, High mountain Asia and \r Europe (Loriaux and Casassa, 2013; Paul and Molg, 2014; Zhang et al., \r [...]"


id: 7df75c60aa267008be5544773541a47d
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] 2015; Buckel et al., 2018). Exceptions occurred and are expected to \r occur in the future for few lakes where evaporation, runoff and \r reduced melt water influx in total led to a negative water balance \r (Sun et al., 2018a). Also, advancing glaciers temporarily dammed \r rivers, lake sections, or fjords (Stearns et al., 2015), for instance \r through surging (Round et al., 2017), causing particularly large floods \r once the ice dams breached. Outbursts from water bodies in and \r under glaciers are able to cause floods similar to those from surface \r lakes but little is known about the processes involved and any trends \r under climate change. In some cases, the glacier thermal regime \r played a role so that climate driven changes in thermal regime are \r expected to alter the hazard potential, depending on local conditions \r (Gilbert et al., 2012). Another source of large water bodies under "


id: 3a8b9c4d587ee829d6d6d77ba4666537
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7504
content:
"Volcanoes covered by snow and ice often produce substantial \r melt water during eruptions. This typically results in floods and/or \r lahars (mixtures of melt water and volcanic debris) which can be \r exceptionally violent and cause large-scale loss of life and destruction \r to infrastructure (Barr et al., 2018). The most devastating example \r from recent history occurred in 1985, when the medium-sized \r eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia, produced lahars that \r killed more than 23,000 people some 70 km downstream (Pierson \r et al., 1990). Hazards associated with ice and snow-clad volcanoes \r have been reported mostly from the Cordilleras of the Americas, \r but also from the Aleutian arc (USA), Mexico, Kamchatka (Russia), \r Japan, New Zealand and Iceland (Seynova et al., 2017). In particular, \r under Icelandic glaciers, volcanic activity and eruptions melted large \r amounts of ice and caused especially large floods if water accumulated \r [...]"


id: 234b3d7308563f6bdcc0b63886276a2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3411
content:
"[...] underneath the glacier (Bjornsson, 2003; Seneviratne et al., 2012). \r There is medium confidence that the overall hazard related to floods \r and lahars from ice- and snow-clad volcanoes will gradually diminish \r over years-to-decades as glaciers and seasonal snow cover continue \r to decrease under climate change (Aguilera et al., 2004; Barr et al., \r 2018). On the other hand, shrinkage of glaciers may uncover steep \r slopes of unconsolidated volcanic sediments, thus decreasing in the \r future the resistance of these volcano flanks to heavy rain fall and \r increasing the hazard from related debris flows (Vallance, 2005). In \r summary, future changes in snow and ice are expected to modify the \r impacts of volcanic activity of snow- and ice-clad volcanoes (high \r confidence) although in complex and locally variable ways and at \r a variety of time scales (Barr et al., 2018; Swindles et al., 2018)."


id: c543f928f1dcd29d3b37592b068eb969
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32012
content:
"The largest mountain disasters in terms of reach, damage and \r lives lost that involve ice, snow and permafrost occurred through a \r combination or chain of processes. New evidence since SREX and AR5 \r has strengthened these findings (Anacona et al., 2015a; Evans and \r Delaney, 2015). Some process chains occur frequently, while others \r are rare, specific to local circumstances and difficult to anticipate. \r Glacier lake outbursts were in many mountain regions and over \r recent decades documented to have been triggered by impact waves \r from snow-, ice- or rock-avalanches, landslides, iceberg calving \r events, or by temporary blockage of surface or subsurface drainage \r channels (Benn et al., 2012; Narama et al., 2017). Rock-slope \r instability and catastrophic failure along fjords caused tsunamis \r (Hermanns et al., 2014; Roberts et al., 2014). For instance, a landslide \r generated wave in 2015 at Taan Fjord, Alaska, ran up 193 m on the \r [...]"


id: 62594a64cf2abeec1cea9df2bc03b948
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 14583
content:
"[...] opposite slope and then travelled more than 20 km down the fjord \r (Higman et al., 2018). Earthquakes have been a starting point for \r different types of cascading events, for instance by causing snow-, \r ice- or rock-avalanches, and landslides (van der Woerd et al., 2004; \r Podolskiy et al., 2010; Cook and Butz, 2013; Saemundsson et al., \r 2018). Glaciers and their moraines, including morainic lake dams, \r seem however, not particularly prone to earthquake triggered failure \r (Kargel et al., 2016)."


id: afcc4cd66b3155cca2bfe1e2a72e664
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28164
content:
"Confirming findings from SREX, there is high confidence that the \r exposure of people and infrastructure to cryosphere hazards in high \r mountain regions has increased over recent decades, and this trend \r is expected to continue in the future (Figure 2.7). In some regions, \r tourism development has increased exposure, where often weakly \r regulated expansion of infrastructure such as roads, trails, and \r overnight lodging brought more visitors into remote valleys and \r exposed sites (Gardner et al., 2002; Uniyal, 2013). As an example \r for the consequences of increased exposure, many of the more \r than 350 fatalities resulting from the 2015 earthquake triggered \r snow-ice avalanche in Langtang, Nepal, were foreign trekkers and \r their local guides (Kargel et al., 2016). Further, several thousand \r religious pilgrims were killed during the 2013 Kedarnath glacier \r flood disaster (State of Uttarakhand, Northern India) (Kala, 2014). \r [...]"


id: 7fb65382c531ed79cb7de43c9ef2c68e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19605
content:
"[...] The expansion of hydropower (Section 2.3.1) is another key factor, \r and in the Himalaya alone, up to two-thirds of the current and \r planned hydropower projects are located in the path of potential \r glacier floods (Schwanghart et al., 2016). Changes in exposure of \r local communities, for instance, through emigration driven by climate \r change related threats (Grau and Aide, 2007; Gosai and Sulewski, \r 2014), or increased connectivity and quality of life in urban centres \r (Tiwari and Joshi, 2015), are complex and vary regionally. The effects \r of changes in exposure on labour migration and relocation of entire \r communities are discussed in Section 2.3.7."


id: cdb48f2dde16680ed2825c31ba33272
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33521
content:
"Landslides and rock avalanches in glacier environments were often \r documented to entrain snow and ice that fluidise, and incorporate \r additional loose glacial sediments or water bodies, thereby \r multiplying their mobility, volume and reach (Schneider et al., 2011; \r Evans and Delaney, 2015). Rock avalanches onto glaciers triggered \r glacier advances in recent decades, for instance in North America, \r New Zealand and Europe, mainly through reducing surface melt \r (Deline, 2009; Reznichenko et al., 2011; Menounos et al., 2013). \r In glacier covered frozen rock walls, particularly complex thermal, \r mechanical, hydraulic and hydrologic interactions between steep \r glaciers, frozen rock and its ice content, and unfrozen rock sections \r lead to combined rock/ice instabilities that are difficult to observe \r and anticipate (Harris et al., 2009; Fischer et al., 2013; Ravanel et al., \r 2017). There is limited evidence of observed direct event chains to \r [...]"


id: d7940aa9f734f09a22578df96ae13532
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35233
content:
"[...] project future trends. However, from the observed and projected \r degradation of permafrost, shrinkage of glaciers and increase in \r glacier lakes it is reasonable to assume that event chains involving \r these could increase in frequency or magnitude, and that accordingly \r hazard zones could expand."


id: 157e0ce3d93c268c3879c1bbc116771d
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 994
content:
"cultural and social disruption resulting from temporary or permanent \r evacuation (Oliver-Smith, 1979). According to the International \r Disaster  - Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), over the period \r 1985-2014, absolute economic losses in mountain regions from all \r flood and mass movements (including non-cryosphere origins) were \r highest in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region (45 billion USD), followed \r by the European Alps (7 billion USD), and the Andes (3 billion USD) \r (Staubli et al., 2018). For example, a project to dig a channel in Tsho \r Rolpa glacier in Nepal that lowered a glacial lake cost 3  million \r USD in 2000 (Bajracharya, 2010), and similar measures have been \r taken at Imja Tsho Lake in Nepal in 2016 (Cuellar and McKinney, \r 2017). Other impacts are related to drinking and irrigation water and \r livelihoods (Section 2.3.1). In summary, there is high confidence that \r in the context of mountain flood and landslide hazards, exposure, and \r [...]"


id: 5e2f9a5ea2fc7c794db0eefd6b0a92b8
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13859
content:
"[...] vulnerability growing in the coming century, significant risk reduction \r and adaptation strategies will be required to avoid increased impacts."


id: bfc3aa748cb67d00e06f5707a5b52bae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31019
content:
"Considering the wide ranging social, economic, and institutional \r factors that enable communities to adequately prepare for, respond \r to and recover from climate change impacts (Cutter and Morath, \r 2013), there is limited evidence and high agreement that mountain \r communities, particularly within developing countries, are highly \r vulnerable to the adverse effects of enhanced cryosphere hazards. \r There are few studies that have systematically investigated the \r vulnerability of mountain communities to natural hazards (Carey \r et al., 2017). Coping capacities to withstand impacts from natural \r hazards in mountain communities are constrained due to a number \r of reasons. Fundamental weather and climate information is lacking \r to support both short-term early warning for imminent disasters, and \r long-term adaptation planning (Rohrer et al., 2013; Xenarios et al., \r 2018). Communities may be politically and socially marginalised \r [...]"


id: 1a5610521226e5b1cc372ab143be8a19
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 1833
content:
"[...] (Marston, 2008). Incomes are typically lower and opportunities \r for livelihood diversification restricted (McDowell et al., 2013). \r Emergency responders can have difficulties accessing remote \r mountain valleys after disasters strike (Sati and Gahalaut, 2013). \r Cultural or social ties to the land can limit freedom of movement \r (Oliver-Smith, 1996). Conversely, there is evidence that some \r mountain communities exhibit enhanced levels of resilience, drawing \r on long-standing experience, and Indigenous knowledge and local \r knowledge (Cross-Chapter Box  4 in Chapter  1) gained over many \r centuries of living with extremes of climate and related disasters \r (Gardner and Dekens, 2006). In the absence of sufficient data, few \r studies have considered temporal trends in vulnerability (Huggel \r et al., 2015a)."


id: d8dc7bafbd1cf18dad3029e1c46a1385
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35445
content:
"There is medium confidence that applying an integrative \r socioecological risk perspective to flood, avalanche and landslide \r hazards in high mountain regions paves the way for adaptation \r strategies that can best address the underlying components of \r hazard, exposure and vulnerability (Carey et al., 2014; McDowell and \r Koppes, 2017; Allen et al., 2018; Vaidya et al., 2019). Some degree \r of adaptation action has been identified in a number of countries \r with glacier covered mountain ranges, mostly in the form of reactive \r responses (rather than formal anticipatory plans) to high mountain \r hazards (Xenarios et al., 2018; McDowell et al., 2019) (Figure 2.9). \r However, scientific literature reflecting on lessons learned from \r adaptation efforts generally remains scarce. Specifically for flood and \r landslide hazards, adaptation strategies that were applied include: \r hard engineering solutions such as lowering of glacier lake levels, \r [...]"


id: 1e894d206b1589240ce56d420c81bf7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2577
content:
"[...] channel engineering, or slope stabilisation that reduce the hazard \r potential; nature-based solutions such as revegetation efforts to \r stabilise hazard prone slopes or channels; hazard and risk mapping \r as a basis for land zoning and early warning systems that reduce \r potential exposure; various community level interventions to develop \r disaster response programmes, build local capacities and reduce \r vulnerability. For example, there is a long tradition of engineered \r responses to reduce glacier flood risk, most notably beginning in the \r mid-20th century in Peru (Box 2.4), Italian and Swiss Alps (Haeberli \r et al., 2001), and more recently in the Himalaya (Ives et al., 2010). \r There is no published evidence that avalanche risk management, \r through defence structures design and norms, control measures and \r warning systems, has been modified as an adaptation to climate \r change, over the past decades. Projected changes in avalanche \r [...]"


id: 705ebc1a992ad754764a474aeeb45c40
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17026
content:
"[...] character bear potential reductions of the effectiveness of current \r approaches for infrastructure design and avalanche risk management \r (Ancey and Bain, 2015)."


id: b300eb9f9e3add78ec083dbfdbdba133
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28735
content:
"Economic losses associated with these events are incurred through \r two pathways. The first consists of direct losses due to the disasters, \r and the second includes indirect costs from the additional risk and \r loss of potential opportunities, or from additional investment that \r would be necessary to manage or adapt to the challenges brought \r about by the cryosphere changes. Nationwide economic impacts from \r glacier floods have been greatest in Nepal and Bhutan (Carrivick and \r Tweed, 2016). The disruption of vital transportation corridors that can \r impact trading of goods and services (Gupta and Sah, 2008; Khanal \r et al., 2015), and the loss of earnings from tourism can represent \r significant far-reaching and long-lasting impacts (Nothiger and \r Elsasser, 2004; IHCAP, 2017). The Dig Tsho flood in the Khumbu Himal \r of Nepal in 1985 damaged a hydropower plant and other properties, \r with estimated economic losses of 500 million USD (Shrestha et al., \r [...]"


id: cca7f3a1d10e5580bb26fcf6acfacedf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33332
content:
"Cordillera Blanca residents' risk of glacier-related disasters is amplified by intersecting physical and societal factors. Cryosphere hazards \r include expanding or newly forming glacial lakes, slope instability, and other consequences of rising temperatures, and precipitation \r changes (Emmer et al., 2016; Colonia et al., 2017; Haeberli et al., 2017). Human vulnerability to these hazards is conditioned by \r factors such as poverty, limited political influence and resources, minimal access to education and healthcare, and weak government \r institutions (Hegglin and Huggel, 2008; Carey et al., 2012; Lynch, 2012; Carey et al., 2014; Heikkinen, 2017). Early warning systems \r have been, or are being, installed at glacial lakes Laguna 513 and Palcacocha to protect populations (Munoz et al., 2016). Laguna \r 513 was lowered by 20 m for outburst prevention in the early 1990s but nonetheless caused a destructive flood in 2010, though \r [...]"


id: d2b2492b1d17ec21574a7abc012ffdf2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34413
content:
"[...] much smaller and less destructive than a flood that would have been expected without previous lake mitigation works (Carey et al., \r 2012; Schneider et al., 2014). An early warning system was subsequently installed, but some local residents destroyed it in 2017 \r due to political, social and cultural conflicts (Fraser, 2017). The nearby Lake Palcacocha also threatens populations (Wegner, 2014; \r Somos-Valenzuela et al., 2016). The usefulness for ground-level education and communication regarding advanced early warning \r systems has been demonstrated in Peru (Munoz et al., 2016). "


id: b4d3de96fa3f920c6efdba8dcc0f85e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29065
content:
"Figure 2.8 |  Synthesis of observed physical changes and impacts on ecosystems and human systems and ecosystems services in eleven high mountain regions over past \r decades that can at least partly be attributed to changes in the cryosphere. Only observations documented in the scientific literature are shown, but impacts may also \r be experienced elsewhere. For physical changes yellow/green refers to an increase/decrease, respectively, in amount or frequency of the measured variable. For impacts \r on ecosystems and human systems and ecosystems services blue or red depicts whether an observed impact is positive (beneficial) or negative (adverse). Cells assigned \r 'increase and decrease' indicate that within that region both increase and decrease of physical changes are found, but are not necessarily equal; the same holds for cells \r [...]"


id: e197c9f30116908df7438abf82aa90e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36960
content:
"[...] showing 'positive and negative' impacts. Confidence levels refer to confidence in attribution to cryospheric changes. No assessment means: not applicable, not assessed at \r regional scale, or the evidence is insufficient for assessment. Tundra refers to tundra and alpine meadows. Migration refers to an increase and decrease in net migration, \r not beneficial/adverse value. Impacts on tourism refer to the operating conditions for the tourism sector. Cultural services include cultural identity, sense of home, intrinsic \r and aesthetic values, as well as contributions from glacier archaeology. Figure is based on observed impacts listed in Table SM2.11."


id: f3bbb398c7bec73aa66aa2ce5fb91fe5
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vector_id: 40259
content:
"Widespread climate driven ecological changes have occurred in high \r mountain ecosystems over the past century. Those impacts were \r assessed in a dedicated manner only in earlier IPCC assessments \r (Beniston and Fox, 1996; Gitay et al., 2001; Fischlin et al., 2007) but \r not in AR5 (Settele et al., 2014). Two of the most evident changes \r include range shifts of plants and animals in Central Europe and the \r Himalaya but also for other mountain regions (e.g., Morueta-Holme \r et al., 2015; Evangelista et al., 2016; Freeman et al., 2018; Liang \r et al., 2018; You et al., 2018; He et al., 2019), and increases in \r species richness on mountain summits (Khamis et al., 2016; Fell \r et al., 2017; Steinbauer et al., 2018) of which some have accelerated \r during recent decades (e.g., Steinbauer et al., 2018), though slowing \r over the past ten years in Austria (e.g., Lamprecht et al., 2018). \r While many changes in freshwater communities have been directly \r [...]"


id: e705a709e2553fe260c104c3d46c4c86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37941
content:
"[...] attributed to changes in the cryosphere (Jacobsen et al., 2012; \r Milner et al., 2017), separating the direct influence of atmospheric \r warming from the influence of concomitant cryospheric change \r and independent biotic processes has been often challenging for \r terrestrial ecosystems (Grytnes et al., 2014; Lesica and Crone, 2016; \r Frei et al., 2018; Lamprecht et al., 2018). Changing climate in high \r mountains places further stress on biota, which are already impacted \r by land use and its change, direct exploitation, and pollutants (Diaz \r et al., 2019; Wester et al., 2019). Species are required to shift their \r behaviours, including seasonal aspects, and distributional ranges to \r track suitable climate conditions (Settele et al., 2014). In the Special \r Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC (SR15), climate change scenarios \r exceeding mean global warming of 1.5o C relative to preindustrial \r levels have been estimated to lead to major impacts on species "


id: b4d4420876ab73fb16e240cbb12fb811
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29066
content:
"The cryosphere can play a critical role in moderating and driving \r how species respond to climate change in high mountains (high \r confidence). Many mountain plant and animal species have \r changed abundances and migrated upslope while expanding or \r contracting their ranges over the past decades to century, whereas \r others show no change (Morueta-Holme et al., 2015; Suding et al., \r 2015; Lesica and Crone, 2016; Fadrique et al., 2018; Freeman et al., \r 2018; Rumpf et al., 2018; Johnston et al., 2019; Rumpf et al., 2019) \r (medium agreement, robust evidence). These responses are often \r linked directly to warming, yet a changing cryosphere, for example, \r in the form of decreasing snow thickness or altered seasonality of \r snow (e.g., Matteodo et al., 2016; Kirkpatrick et al., 2017; Amagai \r et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2018) or indirectly leading to changes in soil \r moisture (Harpold and Molotch, 2015), can play a significant role \r [...]"


id: 9777bdbe954b410306ed0691b210214c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23859
content:
"[...] for growth, fitness and survival of many species (e.g., Grytnes et al., \r 2014; Winkler et al., 2016) (medium evidence, high agreement). "


id: f0d506cdcee2dea514c935f5c2abeddd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39735
content:
"ecosystem services, such as by provisioning new habitat for endemic \r plant species and increasing plant productivity (high confidence). \r Decreasing snow cover duration, glacier retreat and permafrost \r thaw have already and will over coming decades allow plant species, \r including some endemic species, to increase their abundance and \r extend their range in many mountain ranges (Yang et al., 2010a; \r Grytnes et al., 2014; Elsen and Tingley, 2015; Dolezal et al., 2016; \r Wang et al., 2016b; D'Amico et al., 2017; Liang et al., 2018; Yang \r et al., 2018; You et al., 2018; He et al., 2019). Over recent decades, \r plant colonisation after glacier retreat has been swift, for example, \r at many sites with favourable soils in the European Alps (Matthews \r and Vater, 2015; Fickert and Gruninger, 2018) or has even accelerated \r compared to 100 years ago (Fickert et al., 2016). At other sites of \r the European Alps (D'Amico et al., 2017) and in other mountain \r [...]"


id: 4250e8c77ab17c71ebd2452cac5214d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8865
content:
"[...] ranges (e.g., Andes and Alaska; Darcy et al., 2018; Zimmer et al., \r 2018) the rate of colonisation remains slow due to soil type, soil \r formation and phosphorous limitation (Darcy et al., 2018). In Bhutan, \r snowlines have ascended and new plant species have established \r themselves in these areas, yet despite range expansion and increased \r productivity, yak herders describe impacts on the ecosystem services \r as mostly negative (Wangchuk and Wangdi, 2018). Earlier snowmelt \r often leads to earlier plant growth and, provided there is sufficient \r water, including from underlying permafrost, plant productivity has \r increased in many alpine regions (e.g., Williams et al., 2015; Yang \r et al., 2018). Decreased snow cover duration has led to colonisation \r of snowbed communities by wide-ranging species in several regions, \r for example, in the Australian Alps (Pickering et al., 2014), though \r this can lead to declines in the abundance of resident species, for \r [...]"


id: 9667d4ae56d8579a6c75960103d0ba4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23665
content:
"The shrinking cryosphere represents a loss of critical habitat for \r wildlife that depend on snow and ice cover, affecting well-known and \r unique high-elevation species (high confidence). Areas with seasonal \r snow and glaciers are essential habitat for birds and mammals \r within mountain ecosystems for foraging, relief from climate stress, \r food caching and nesting grounds (Hall et al., 2016; Rosvold, 2016) \r (robust evidence). Above 5,000 m a.s.l. in Peru, there was recently \r a first observation of bird nesting for which its nesting may be \r glacier obligate (Hardy et al., 2018). The insulated and thermally \r stable region under the snow at the soil-snow interface, termed \r the subnivean, has been affected by changing snowpack, limiting \r winter activity and decreasing population growth for some mountain \r animals, including frogs, rodents and small carnivores (Penczykowski \r et al., 2017; Zuckerberg and Pauli, 2018; Kissel et al., 2019) (medium \r [...]"


id: c2aade08792c26f96b477f18e38f40f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31533
content:
"[...] evidence). Many mountain animals have been observed to change \r their behaviour in a subtle manner, for example., in foraging or \r hunting behaviour, due to cryospheric changes (e.g., Rosvold, 2016; \r Buntgen et al., 2017; Mahoney et al., 2018) (medium evidence, \r high agreement). In the Canadian Rocky Mountains, grizzly bears \r have moved to new snow free habitat after emerging in spring \r from hibernation to dig for forage, which may increase the risk of \r human-bear encounters (Berman et al., 2019). In the US Central Rocky \r Mountains, migratory herbivores, such as elk, moose and bison, track \r newly emergent vegetation that greens soon after snowmelt (Merkle \r et al., 2016). For elk, this was found to increase fat gain (Middleton \r et al., 2018). Due to loss of snow patches that increase surface water \r and thus insect abundance, some mammal species, for example, \r reindeer and ibex, have changed their foraging behaviour to evade \r [...]"


id: c4dca5be6d45fa3af10dfdd76f1bb239
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31946
content:
"[...] the biting insects with negative impacts on reproductive fitness (Vors \r and Boyce, 2009; Buntgen et al., 2017). "


id: 437908c13f638df15a7202859af2ed97
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9095
content:
"Cryospheric change in high mountains directly harms some plant \r species and ecosystems in some regions, degrading a number \r of ecosystem services, such as maintaining regional and global \r biodiversity, and some provisioning services, for example, fodder \r or wood production, in terms of timing and magnitude (high \r confidence). In mountains, microrefugia (a local environment \r different from surrounding areas) and isolation have contributed \r to high plant endemism that increases with elevation (Steinbauer \r et al., 2016; Zhang and Zhang, 2017; Muellner-Riehl, 2019). \r Microrefugia may enable alpine species to persist if global warming \r remains below 2@C relative pre-industrial levels (Scherrer and \r Korner, 2011; Hannah et al., 2014; Graae et al., 2018) (medium \r evidence, medium agreement). Yet, where glaciers have been \r retreating over recent decades, cool microrefugia have shifted \r location or decreased in extent (Gentili et al., 2015). In regions with \r [...]"


id: 36b74b90c8a035cdef828f50a5c44192
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6853
content:
"[...] insufficient summer precipitation, earlier snowmelt and absence \r of permafrost lead to insufficient water supply during the growing \r season, and consequently an earlier end of peak season, altered \r species composition, and a decline in greenness or productivity \r (Trujillo et al., 2012; Sloat et al., 2015; Williams et al., 2015; \r Yang et al., 2018) (medium evidence, high agreement). Across \r elevations, alpine-restricted species show greater sensitivity to \r the timing of snowmelt than wide ranging species (Lesica, 2014; \r Winkler et al., 2018), and though the cause is often not known, \r some alpine-restricted species have declined in abundance or "


id: cb4df5a99a46c08116578b67217df499
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33097
content:
"Many endemic plant and animal species including mammals and \r invertebrates in high mountain regions are vulnerable to further \r decreasing snow cover duration, such as later onset of snow \r accumulation and/or earlier snowmelt (high confidence) (Williams \r et al., 2015; Slatyer et al., 2017). Winter-white animals for which coat \r or plumage colour is cued by day length will confront more days \r with brown snowless ground (Zimova et al., 2018), which has already \r contributed to range contractions for several species, including hares \r and ptarmigan (Imperio et al., 2013; Sultaire et al., 2016; Pedersen \r et al., 2017) (robust evidence). Under all climate scenarios, the \r duration of this camouflage mismatch will increase, enhancing \r predation rates thereby decreasing populations of coat-colour \r changing species (e.g., 24% decrease by late century under RCP8.5 \r for snowshoe hares; Zimova et al., 2016; see also Atmeh et al., 2018) \r [...]"


id: e38d50c4ee124e4dd10288113140be3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37327
content:
"[...] (medium evidence, high agreement). For roe deer (Plard et al., 2014) \r and mountain goats (White et al., 2017), climate driven changes in \r snowmelt duration and summer temperatures will reduce survival \r considerably under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (medium evidence, \r high agreement). "


id: 8533308453cf00cf391d11554d1aee39
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20576
content:
"In the future, increased primary production dominated by diatoms \r and golden algae will occur in streams as glacier runoff decreases, \r although some cold-tolerant diatom species will be lost, resulting in \r a decrease in regional diversity (Fell et al., 2017; Fell et al., 2018). \r Reduced glacier runoff is projected to improve water clarity in \r many mountain lakes, increasing biotic diversity and the abundance \r of bacterial and algal communities and thus primary production \r (Peter and Sommaruga, 2016) (limited evidence). Extinction of \r range-restricted prey species may increase as more favourable \r conditions facilitate the upstream movement of large bodied \r invertebrate predators (Khamis et al., 2015) (medium confidence). \r Modelling studies indicate a reduction in the range of native species, \r notably trout, in mountain streams, (Papadaki et al., 2016; Vigano \r et al., 2016; Young et al., 2018) (medium evidence, high agreement), \r [...]"


id: 672e46a7b183ea11c2c8ff64a9cc96b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15428
content:
"[...] which will potentially impact sport fisheries. In northwest North \r America, where salmon are important in native subsistence as well \r as commercial and sport fisheries, all species will potentially be \r affected by reductions in glacial runoff from mountain glaciers over \r time (Milner et al., 2017; Schoen et al., 2017), particularly in larger \r systems where migratory corridors to spawning grounds are reduced \r (medium confidence). "


id: 2e5338277bfcdd4fbededdcfd125444f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5424
content:
"Analysis of three invertebrate datasets from tropical (Ecuador), \r temperate (Italian Alps) and sub-Arctic (Iceland) alpine regions \r indicates that a number of cold-adapted species have decreased in \r abundance below a threshold of watershed glacier cover varying \r from 19-32%. With complete loss of the glaciers, 11-38% of the \r regional species will be lost (Jacobsen et al., 2012; Milner et al., 2017) \r (medium confidence). As evidenced in Europe (Pyrenees, Italian Alps) \r and North America (Rocky Mountains) (Brown et al., 2007; Giersch \r et al., 2015; Giersch et al., 2017; Lencioni, 2018) the loss of these \r invertebrates - many of them endemic - as glacier runoff decreases \r and transitions to a regime more dominated by snowmelt leading \r to a reduction in turnover between and within stream reaches (beta \r diversity) and regional (gamma) diversity (very high confidence). \r Regional genetic diversity within individual riverine invertebrate \r [...]"


id: 3cbe8954e0d117c6bd8402502b9d2874
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7869
content:
"[...] species in mountain headwater areas has decreased with the loss \r of environmental heterogeneity (Giersch et al., 2017), as decreasing \r glacier runoff reduces the isolation of individuals permitting a greater \r degree of genetic intermixing (Finn et al., 2013; Finn et al., 2016; \r Jordan et al., 2016; Hotaling et al., 2018) (medium evidence, high \r agreement). However, local (alpha) diversity, dominated by generalist \r species of invertebrates and algae, has increased (Khamis et al., \r 2016; Fell et al., 2017; Brown et al., 2018) (very high confidence) in \r certain regions as species move upstream, although not in the Andes, \r where downstream migration has been observed (Jacobsen et al., \r 2014; Cauvy-Fraunie et al., 2016). "


id: d699b26327ceaccb05f5b0189f78724
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35061
content:
"The trend to a higher productivity in high mountain ecosystems due to \r a warmer environment and cryospheric changes, affects provisioning \r and regulating services (high confidence). Due to earlier snowmelt, \r the growing season has begun earlier, for example, on the Tibetan \r Plateau, and in the Swiss Alps (Wang et al., 2017; Xie et al., 2018), \r and in some regions earlier growth has been linked to greater plant \r production or greater net ecosystem production, possibly affecting \r carbon uptake (Scholz et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2018). \r In other areas productivity has decreased, despite a longer growing \r season, for example, in the US Rocky Mountains, US Sierra Nevada \r Mountains, Swiss Alps, and Tibetan Plateau (Arnold et al., 2014; Sloat \r et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2017; De Boeck et al., 2018; Knowles et al., \r 2018) (robust evidence, medium agreement). Changed productivity \r of the vegetation in turn can affect the timing, quantity and quality \r [...]"


id: 80ad5266a01c9c852751196ea3203661
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19768
content:
"[...] of water supply, a critical regulating service ecosystems play in high \r mountain areas (Goulden and Bales, 2014; Hubbard et al., 2018) \r (medium confidence). Permafrost degradation has dramatically \r changed some alpine ecosystems through altered soil temperature \r and permeability, decreasing the climate regulating service of a vast \r region and leading to lowered ground water and new and shrinking \r lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (Jin et al., 2009; Yang et al., 2010b; Shen \r et al., 2018) (medium evidence, high agreement). "


id: c717ea7a308d35949495c95d45b1347c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32347
content:
"Many climate variables influence fisheries, through both direct and \r indirect pathways. The key variables linked to cryospheric change \r include: changes in air and water temperature, precipitation, nutrient \r levels and ice cover (Stenseth et al., 2003). A shrinking cryosphere has \r significantly affected cold mountain resident salmonids (e.g., brook \r trout, Salvelinus fontinalis), causing further migration upstream in \r summer thereby shrinking their range (Hari et al., 2006; Eby et al., \r 2014; Young et al., 2018). Within the Yanamarey watershed of the \r Cordillera Blanca in Peru, fish stocks have either declined markedly \r or have become extinct in many streams, possibly due to seasonal \r reductions of fish habitat in the upper watershed resulting from \r glacier recession (Bury et al., 2011; Vuille et al., 2018). In contrast, \r glacier recession in the mountains of coastal Alaska and to a lesser \r extent the Pacific northwest have created a large number of new \r [...]"


id: 947eba6031094340a6ed1ce9dc970704
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23332
content:
"[...] stream systems that have been, and could continue to be with \r further glacier retreat, colonised from the sea by salmon species \r that contribute to both commercial and sport fisheries (Milner et al., \r 2017; Schoen et al., 2017) (medium confidence). Changes in water \r temperature will vary seasonally, and a potential decreased frequency \r of rain-on-snow events in winter compared to rain-on-ground would \r increase water temperature, benefiting overwintering survival (Leach "


id: a70362104876631be1e8db52e37f8389
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26589
content:
"Ecosystems and their services are vulnerable to changes in the \r intensity and/or the frequency of an ecological disturbance that exceed \r the previous range of variation (Johnstone et al., 2016; Camac et al., \r 2017; Fairman et al., 2017); cf. 3.4.3.2 Ecosystems and their Services) \r (high confidence). For example, in the Western USA, mountain \r ecosystems are experiencing an increase in the number and extent \r of wildfires, which have been attributed to many factors, including \r climate factors such as earlier snowmelt and vapour-pressure deficit \r (Settele et al., 2014; Westerling, 2016; Kitzberger et al., 2017; Littell, \r 2018; Littell et al., 2018). Similarly, landslides and floods in many \r areas have been attributed to cryospheric changes (Section 2.3.2). \r Disturbances can feedback and diminish many of the ecosystem \r services such as provisioning, regulating and cultural services (Millar \r and Stephenson, 2015; McDowell and Koppes, 2017; Mcdowell et al., \r [...]"


id: cf3d3dcb06de60a93bac4b755803ed81
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33810
content:
"[...] 2018; Murphy et al., 2018; Maxwell et al., 2019). Consistent with AR5 \r findings (Settele et al., 2014) the capacity of many freshwater and \r terrestrial mountain species to adapt naturally to climate change is \r projected to be exceeded for high warming levels, leading to species \r migration across mountain ranges or loss with consequences for \r many ecosystem services (Elsen and Tingley, 2015; Dobrowski and \r Parks, 2016; Pecl et al., 2017; Rumpf et al., 2019) (robust evidence, \r medium agreement, i.e.,  high confidence). Although the adaptive \r potential of aquatic biota to projected changes in glacial runoff is not \r fully understood (Lencioni et al., 2015), dispersion and phenotypic \r plasticity together with additional microrefugia formation due to \r cryospheric changes, is expected to help threatened species to better \r adapt, perhaps even in the long term (Shama and Robinson, 2009). \r Likewise, traits shaped by climate and with high genetically-based \r [...]"


id: 367e3e15cb9749de741df1c3a3660867
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6822
content:
"[...] standing variation may be used to spatially identify, map and manage \r global 'hotspots' for evolutionary rescue from climate change (Jones \r et al., 2018; Mills et al., 2018). Nature conservation increases the \r potential for mitigating adverse effects on many of these ecosystem \r services, including those that are essential for the support of the \r livelihoods and the culture of mountain peoples, including economical \r aspects such as recreation and tourism (e.g.,  Palomo, 2017; Elsen \r et al., 2018; Wester et al., 2019) (medium confidence). "


id: 37a59f65ac8d0efd074fe177d0abd15f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6998
content:
"In some mountain regions, glacier retreat and related processes \r of change in the cryosphere have afforded greater accessibility for \r extractive industries and related activities to mine minerals and \r metals (medium confidence). Accelerated glacier shrinkage and \r retreat have been reported to facilitate mining activities in Chile, \r Argentina and Peru (Brenning, 2008; Brenning and Azocar, 2010; \r Anacona et al., 2018), and Kyrgyzstan (Kronenberg, 2013; Petrakov \r et al., 2016), which also interact with and have consequences for \r other social, cultural, economic, political and legal measures, where \r climate change impacts also play a role (Brenning and Azocar, 2010; \r Evans et al., 2016; Khadim, 2016; Anacona et al., 2018). However, \r negative impacts due to cryosphere changes may also occur. One \r study projects that reductions in glacier melt water and snowmelt in \r the watershed in the Chilean Andes will lead to a reduction of water \r [...]"


id: 91e905e880bc03ab884862f723808db9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22890
content:
"[...] supply to a copper mine by 2075-2100 of 28% under scenario A2 and \r of 6% under B2; construction of infrastructure to draw water from \r other sources will cost between 16-137 million USD (Correa-Ibanez \r et al., 2018)."


id: 62e6c05e16dceaaceffe5cddbd5dc681
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14698
content:
"Conversely, there is also evidence suggesting that some of these \r mining activities affect glaciers locally, and the mountain environment \r around them, further altering glacier dynamics, glacier structure and \r permafrost degradation. This is due mainly to excavation, extraction, \r and use of explosives (Brenning, 2008; Brenning and Azocar, 2010; \r Kronenberg, 2013), and deposition of dust and other mine waste \r material close to or top of glaciers during extraction and transportation \r (Brenning, 2008; Torgoev and Omorov, 2014; Arenson et al., 2015b; \r Jamieson et al., 2015). These activities have reportedly generated slope \r instabilities (Brenning, 2008; Brenning and Azocar, 2010; Torgoev and \r Omorov, 2014), glacier mass loss due to enhanced surface melt from \r dust and debris deposition (Torgoev and Omorov, 2014; Arenson et al., \r 2015b; Petrakov et al., 2016), and even glacier advance by several \r kilometres (Jamieson et al., 2015), although their impact is considered \r [...]"


id: a842742dd3e1754b676dc22550daafbf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26821
content:
"[...] less than that reported for changes in glaciers due to climatic change \r (limited evidence, medium agreement). Glacier Protection Laws and \r similar measures have been introduced in countries such as Chile and \r Argentina to address these impacts (Khadim, 2016; Anacona et al., \r 2018; Navarro et al., 2018). In addition, the United Nations Human \r Rights Council passed a declaration in 2018 to \"protect and restore \r water-related ecosystems\" in mountain areas as elsewhere from \r contamination by mining (UNHRC, 2018); however, evidence on the \r effectiveness of these measures remains inconclusive."


id: a8eaa7e656be4896bec9755196ccd6d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26929
content:
"There is high confidence that permafrost thaw has had negative \r impacts on the integrity of infrastructure in high mountain areas. Like \r in polar regions (Section 3.4.3.3.4), the local effects of infrastructure \r together with climate change degraded permafrost beneath and \r around structures (Dall'Amico et al., 2011; Dore et al., 2016) \r Infrastructure on permafrost in the European Alps, mostly found near \r mountain summits but not in major valleys, has been destabilised by \r permafrost thaw, including mountain stations in France and Austria \r (Ravanel et al., 2013; Keuschnig et al., 2015; Duvillard et al., 2019) \r as well as avalanche defence structures (Phillips and Margreth, \r 2008) and a ski lift (Phillips et al., 2007) in Switzerland. On the \r Tibetan Plateau, deformation or damage has been found on roads \r (Yu et al., 2013; Chai et al., 2018), power transmission infrastructure \r (Guo et al., 2016) and around an oil pipeline (Yu et al., 2016). For \r [...]"


id: f67131611e0af89eaeb7b0aa26d129cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40727
content:
"[...] infrastructure on permafrost, engineering practices suitable for \r polar and high mountain environments (Dore et al., 2016) as well as "


id: 352d788913dc4de573178d3404178909
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"especially at lower elevation, although snow reliability is projected \r to be maintained at many resorts in North America (Wobus et al., \r 2017) and in the European Alps, Pyrenees and Scandinavia (Marke \r et al., 2015; Steiger et al., 2017; Scott et al., 2019; Spandre et al., \r 2019a; Spandre et al., 2019b). At the end of the century (2081-2100), \r under RCP8.5, snow reliability is projected to be unviable for most \r ski resorts under current operating practices in North America, the \r European Alps and Pyrenees, Scandinavia and Japan, with some \r exceptions at high elevation or high-latitudes (Steiger et al., 2017; \r Wobus et al., 2017; Suzuki-Parker et al., 2018; Scott et al., 2019; \r Spandre et al., 2019a; Spandre et al., 2019b). Only few studies have \r used RCP2.6 in the context of ski tourism, and results indicate that \r the risks at the end of the century (2081-2100) are expected to be \r similar to the near term impacts (2031-2050) for RCP8.5 (Scott et al., \r [...]"


id: 5e925ff665c8b4c6bb053805f78a7e41
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"(Sections  2.2.1, 2.2.2, 2.2.3 and 2.2.4). Downhill skiing, the most \r popular form of snow recreation, occurs in 67 countries (Vanat, 2018). \r The Alps in Europe support the largest ski industry (Vanat, 2018). In \r Europe, the growth of alpine skiing and winter tourism after 1930 \r brought major economic growth to alpine regions and transformed \r winter sports into a multi-billion USD industry (Denning, 2014). \r Sixteen percent of skier visits occur in the USA, where expenditures \r from all recreational snow sports generated more than 695,000 \r jobs and 72.7 billion USD in trip-related spending in 2016 (Outdoor \r Industry Association, 2017). While the number of ski resorts in the \r USA has been decreasing since the 1980s, China added 57 new ski \r resorts in 2017 (Vanat, 2018). Although the bulk of economic activity \r is held within mountain communities, supply chains for production \r of ski equipment and apparel span the globe. Steiger et al. (2017) \r [...]"


id: 6b2e3295f2a85191bb7ed936460db709
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"[...] point out that Asia, Africa and South America are underrepresented \r in the ski tourism literature, and Africa and the Middle East are not \r significant markets from a ski tourism perspective."


id: ba2774ce781b51e50229fc1991f926d6
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"The projected economic losses reported in the literature include \r an annual loss in hotel revenues of EUR 560 million (2012 value) \r in Europe, compared to the period 1971-2000 under a 2oC global \r warming scenario (Damm et al., 2017). This estimate includes \r population projections but does not account for snow management. \r In the USA, Wobus et al. (2017) estimate annual revenue losses from \r tickets (skiing) and day fees (cross country skiing and snowmobiling) \r due to reduced snow season length, will range from 340-780 million \r USD in 2050 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, and from 130 million \r to 2 billion USD in 2090 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, taking \r into account snow management and population projections. Total \r economic losses from these studies would be much higher if all \r costs were included (costs for tickets, transport, lodging, food and \r equipment). Regardless of the climate scenario, as risk of financial \r [...]"


id: b74cd0042115f6f688e2ef5f566fe95d
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"[...] unviability increases, there are reported expectations that companies \r would need to forecast when their assets may become stranded \r assets and require devaluation or conversion to liabilities, and \r report this on their balance sheets (Caldecott et al., 2016). Economic \r impacts are projected to occur in other snow-based winter activities \r including events (e.g.,  ski races) and other recreation activities \r such as cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, backcountry skiing, ice \r climbing, sledding, snowmobiling and snow tubing. By 2050, 13 (out \r of 21) prior Olympic Winter Games locations are projected to exhibit \r adequate snow reliability under RCP2.6, and 10 under RCP8.5. By \r 2080, the number decreases to 12 and 8, respectively (Scott et al., \r 2018). Even for cities remaining cold enough to host ski competitions, \r costs are projected to rise for making and stockpiling snow, as was \r the case in Sochi, Russia in 2014 and Vancouver, Canada in 2010 \r [...]"


id: 1ce6939e8f47d9985b6058a172c53809
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"[...] (Scott et al., 2018), and preserving race courses through salting \r (Hagenstad et al., 2018)."


id: 961f9214cfa14d79ec09728ec5eea183
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"Skiing's reliance on favourable atmospheric and snow conditions \r make it particularly vulnerable to climate change (Arent et al., 2014; \r Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). Snow reliability, although not universally \r defined, quantifies whether the snow cover is sufficient for ski resorts \r operations. Depending on the context, it focuses on specific periods \r of the winter season, and may account for interannual variability \r and/or for snow management (Steiger et al., 2017). The effects of \r less snow, due to strong correlation between snow cover and skier \r visits, cost the USA economy 1 billion USD and 17,400 jobs per year \r between 2001-2016 in years of less seasonal snow (Hagenstad et al., \r 2018). Efforts to reduce climate change impacts and risks to economic \r losses focus on increased snowmaking, such as artificial production \r of snow (Steiger et al., 2017), summertime slope preparation (Pintaldi \r et al., 2017), grooming (Steiger et al., 2017), and snow farming, that \r [...]"


id: 56c55713dd6b84a6257ff07fad802852
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"[...] is, storage of snow (Grunewald et al., 2018). The effectiveness of \r snow management methods as adaptation to long-term climate \r change depends on sufficiently low air temperature conditions \r needed for snowmaking, water and energy availability, compliance \r with environmental regulations (de Jong, 2015), and ability to pay \r for investment and operating costs. When these requirements are \r met, evidence over the past decades shows that snow management \r methods have generally proven efficient in reducing the impact of \r reduced natural snow cover duration for many resorts (Dawson and \r Scott, 2013; Hopkins and Maclean, 2014; Steiger et al., 2017; Spandre \r et al., 2019a). The number of skier visits was found to be 39% less \r sensitive to natural snow variations in Swiss ski resorts with 30% \r areal snowmaking coverage (representing the national average), \r compared to resorts without snowmaking (Gonseth, 2013). In some \r [...]"


id: 66409f9c383550e6bd586172c1f53ff8
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"[...] regions, many resorts (mostly smaller, low-elevation resorts) have \r closed due to unfavourable snow conditions brought on by climate \r change and/or the associated need for large capital investments for \r snowmaking capacities (e.g., in northeast USA; Beaudin and Huang, \r 2014). To offset loss in ski tourism revenue, a key adaptation strategy \r is diversification, offering other non-snow recreation options such \r as mountain biking, mountain coasters and alpine slides, indoor \r climbing walls and water parks, festivals and other special events \r (Figure 2.9; Hagenstad et al., 2018; Da Silva et al., 2019).\r In the near term (2031-2050) and regardless of the greenhouse gas \r emission scenario, risks to snow reliability exist for many resorts, "


id: b2135f324adfc5e11d1479056b55affb
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"been adjusted and ladders and fixed anchors installed (Duvillard et al., \r 2015; Mourey and Ravanel, 2017). As permafrost thaws, rock falls on \r and off glaciers are increasingly observed, threatening the safety of \r hikers and mountaineers, for example, in Switzerland (Temme, 2015) \r and New Zealand (Purdie et al., 2015). Glacier retreat and permafrost \r thaw have induced major changes to iconic mountaineering routes in \r the Mont Blanc area, European Alps with impacts on mountaineering \r practices, such as shifts in suitable climbing seasons, and reduced \r route safety (Mourey and Ravanel, 2017; Mourey et al., 2019). \r Cryosphere decline has also reduced opportunities for ice climbing \r and reduced attractions for summer trekking in the Cascade \r Mountains, USA (Orlove et al., 2019). In response to these impacts, \r tour companies have shifted to new sites, diversified to offer other \r activities or simply reduced their activities (Furunes and Mykletun, \r [...]"


id: e517d19f18c8196483757637eee1855c
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content:
"[...] 2012) (Figure 2.9). Steps to improve consultation and participatory \r approaches to understand risk perception and design joint action "


id: f1bbb2bd3d308d5ae084283455038e12
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"between affected communities, authorities and operators, are \r evident, for example, in Iceland (Welling et al., 2019). In some cases, \r new opportunities are presented such as marketing 'climate change \r tourism' where visitors are attracted by 'last chance' opportunities to \r view a glacier; for example, in New Zealand (Stewart et al., 2016), in \r China (Wang et al., 2010) or through changing landscapes such as \r new lakes, for instance in Iceland (Thorhallsdottir and Olafsson, 2017), \r or to view the loss of a glacier, for example, in the Bolivian Andes \r (Kaenzig et al., 2016). The opening of a trekking route promoting this \r opportunity created tensions between a National Park and a local \r indigenous community in the Peruvian Andes over the management \r and allocation of revenue from the route (Rasmussen, 2019). The \r consequences of ongoing and future glacier retreat are projected \r to negatively impact trekking and mountaineering in the Himalaya \r [...]"


id: 4639831486a1bb7d8f301881d4e6be32
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"[...] (Watson and King, 2018). Reduced snow cover has also negatively \r impacted trekking in the Himalaya, since tourists find the mountains "


id: f3f45ec4ee4a48b1cf1112bae0b42232
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Spiritual and intrinsic values in high mountain regions often, but \r not exclusively, rest on deeply held religious beliefs and other local \r customs (medium evidence, high agreement). Some communities \r understand mountains through a religious framework (Bernbaum, \r 2006). In settings as diverse as the Peruvian Andes, the Nepal \r Himalaya, the European Alps, the North Cascades (USA), Mount \r Kilimanjaro and the Hengduan Mountains of southwest China, local \r populations view glacier retreat as the product of their failure to show \r respect to sacred beings or to follow proper conduct. Experiencing \r deep concern that they have disturbed cosmic order, they seek to \r behave in closer accord with established traditions; they anticipate \r that the retreat will continue, leading to further environmental \r degradation and to the decline of natural and social orders  - a \r prospect which causes them distress (Becken et al., 2013; Gagne \r [...]"


id: 5fc984802cf9e9028f830b5a155462b1
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"[...] et al., 2014; Allison, 2015). In the USA, the snow covered peaks of the \r Cascades have also evoked a deep sense of awe and majesty, and \r an obligation to protect them (Carroll, 2012; Duntley, 2015). Similar \r views are found in the Italian Alps, where villagers speak of treating \r glacier peaks with \"respect,\" and state that glacier retreat is due, \r at least in part, to humans \"disturbing\" the glaciers (Brugger et al., \r 2013), resulting in an emotion which Albrecht et al. (2007) termed \r solastalgia, a kind of deep environmental distress or ecological grief \r (Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018)."


id: 7dd59c75a910e1ff9372e8cb94ac2888
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"Cryosphere changes also impact cultural values, which are held by \r populations in high mountains and other regions around the world; \r these impacts often harm human well-being (Tschakert et al., 2019) \r (medium evidence, high agreement). Cultural values were covered \r extensively in AR5, with particular emphasis on small island states \r and the Arctic; the research on cultural values in high mountain \r regions is relatively new. Out of a total of 247 UNESCO World \r Heritage natural sites recognised for their outstanding universal \r value, 46 sites include glaciers within their boundaries, where the \r presence of glaciers is stated among the principal reason (5 sites), or \r secondary reason (28 sites), for World Heritage inscription; complete \r glacier extinction is projected by 2100 in 8 to 21 of these sites, \r under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compromising the \r outstanding universal value placed on these sites, which have been \r [...]"


id: 458aff0327712596ff921bebf773e897
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"[...] inscribed at least partly for their exceptional glaciers (Bosson et al., \r 2019). UNESCO defines \"outstanding universal value\" as \"cultural \r and/or natural significance which is so exceptional as to transcend \r national boundaries and to be of common importance for present and \r future generations of all humanity\" (UNESCO, 2012). Furthermore, in \r recognising the importance of the cultural and intangible value placed \r by communities on aspects of their surrounding environment, such as \r those afforded by cryosphere elements in the high mountains, cultural \r values are mentioned under the workplan of the Warsaw International \r Mechanism as a specific work area under 'Non-economic loss and \r damage' (UNFCCC Secretariat, 2014; Serdeczny, 2019)."


id: 4d5d859b10426ed9fba89fbbc33f6243
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"Glacier retreat threatens the Indigenous knowledge and local \r knowledge of populations in mountain regions; this knowledge \r constitutes a cultural service to wider society by contributing \r to scientific understanding of glaciers (Cross-Chapter Box  4 \r in Chapter  1). Though this knowledge is dynamic, and records \r previous states of glaciers, it has been undermined by the complete \r disappearance of glaciers in a local area (Rhoades et al., 2008). This \r knowledge of glaciers is often tied to religious beliefs and practices. \r It is based on direct observation, stories passed down from one \r generation to another within community, placenames, locations \r of structures and other sources (Gagne et al., 2014). Residents of \r mountain areas can provide dates for previous locations of glacier \r fronts, sometimes documenting these locations through the presence \r of structures (Brugger et al., 2013). Much like other cases of data \r [...]"


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"[...] from citizen science (Theobald et al., 2015), their observations often \r overlap with the record of instrumental observations (Deng et al., \r 2012), and can significantly extend this record (Mark et al., 2010)."


id: d19a01dd02fe69a716a561e7941a2684
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"wage labour migration to provide supplementary income in a number \r of regions (medium evidence, high agreement). Wage labour \r migration linked to cryosphere changes occurs on several time scales, \r including short-term, long-term and permanent migration, and on \r different spatial scales. Though migration usually takes place within \r the country of origin, and sometimes within the region, cases of \r international migration have also been recorded (Merrey et al., 2018). \r The studies since AR5 on migration driven by cryosphere changes \r are concentrated in High Mountain Asia and the Andes, supporting \r the finding, reported in AR5 Working Group II (Section  12.7), that \r stress on livelihoods is an important driver of climate change induced \r migration. The research on such migration also supports the finding \r in SR15 (Section 4.3.5.6) that migration can have mixed outcomes \r on reducing socioeconomic vulnerability, since cases of increase and \r [...]"


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"[...] of reduction of vulnerability are both found in migration from high \r mountain regions that is driven by cryosphere changes. "


id: 84cc9b476133f137f3ca9b28557c4819
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"Changing water availability, mass movements and floods are \r cryosphere processes which drive wage labour migration (medium \r evidence, high agreement). A debris flow in central Nepal in 2014, in \r a region where landslides have increased in recent decades, led more \r than half the households to migrate for months (van der Geest and \r Schindler, 2016). In the Santa River drainage, Peru, rural populations \r have declined 10% between 1970-2000, and the area of several \r major subsistence crops also declined (Bury et al., 2013). Research in \r this region suggests that seasonal wage labour migration from small \r basins within the main Santa basin is largest in the small drainages in \r which glacier retreat has reduced melt water flow most significantly; \r where this process is not as acute, and streamflow is less reduced, \r migration rates are lower (Wrathall et al., 2014). A study from a \r region in the central Peruvian Andes shows that the residents of the \r [...]"


id: 544c83da9ea83a297530a98340e76a11
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"[...] villages that have the highest dependence on glacier melt water travel \r further and stay away longer than the residents of the villages where \r glacier melt water forms a smaller portion of stream flow (Milan \r and Ho, 2014). However, the inverse relation between reliance on \r cryosphere-related water sources and migration was noted in a case \r in the Naryn River drainage in Kyrgyzstan, where the villages that are \r more dependent on glacier melt water had lower, rather than higher, \r rates of wage labour migration than the villages which were less \r dependent on it; the villages with lower rates of such migration also \r had more efficient water management institutions than the others \r (Hill et al., 2017). Several studies, which project cryosphere-related \r emigration to continue in the short term, emphasise decreased \r water availability, due to glacier retreat as a driver in Kyrgyzstan \r (Chandonnet et al., 2016) and Peru (Oliver-Smith, 2014), and to \r [...]"


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"[...] reduced snow cover in Nepal (Prasain, 2018). In most cases, climate \r is only one of several drivers (employment opportunities and better \r educational and health services in lowland areas are others)."


id: aec92d239f2ae8ccd41847f156cac1e2
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"Transhumant pastoralism, involving movements between summer \r and winter pastures, is a centuries old practice in high mountain \r areas (Lozny, 2013). In High Mountain Asia and other regions, it is \r declining due to both climatic factors, including changes in snow \r distribution and glaciers, and to non-climatic factors, and is projected \r to continue declining, at least in the short term (medium evidence, \r high agreement). The changes in snow and glaciers adversely affect \r herders at their summer residences and winter camps in the Himalaya \r (Namgay et al., 2014) and in Scandinavian mountains (Mallory and \r Boyce, 2018). Reduced winter snowfall has led to poorer pasture \r quality in Nepal (Gentle and Maraseni, 2012) and India (Ingty, 2017). \r Other climate change impacts, including erratic snowfall patterns \r and a decrease in rainfall, are perceived by herders in Afghanistan, \r Nepal and Pakistan to have resulted in vegetation of lower quality \r [...]"


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"[...] and quantity (Shaoliang et al., 2012; Joshi et al., 2013; Gentle and \r Thwaites, 2016). Heavy snowfall incidents in winter caused deaths of \r a large number of livestock in northern Pakistan in 2009 (Shaoliang \r et al., 2012). Herders in Nepal reported of water scarcity in traditional \r water sources along migration routes (Gentle and Thwaites, 2016). \r Increased glacier melt water has caused lakes on the Tibetan Plateau \r to increase in size, covering pasture areas and leading pastoralists \r to alter their patterns of seasonal movement (Nyima and Hopping, \r 2019). However, rising temperatures, with associated effects on snow \r cover, have some positive impacts. Seasonal migration from winter \r to summer pastures start earlier in Northern Pakistan, and residence \r in summer pasture lasts longer (Joshi et al., 2013), as it does in \r Afghanistan (Shaoliang et al., 2012)."


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"assigned, by local cultural practices, to carry out the heaviest work \r (Parveen et al., 2015). Emigration has increased in recent decades \r from two valleys in highland Bolivia which rely on glacier melt water, \r as water supplies have declined, though other factors also contribute \r to emigration, including land fragmentation, increasing household \r needs for income, the lack of local wage-labour opportunities and \r an interest among the young in educational opportunities located in \r cities (Brandt et al., 2016). In Nepal, young members of high-elevation \r pastoral households impacted by cryosphere change have been \r increasingly engaged in tourism and labour migration since 2000 \r (Shaoliang et al., 2012); similar responses are reported for Sikkim \r in the Indian Himalaya (Ingty, 2017). A recent study documents the \r inter-generational dynamics of emigration from a livestock raising \r community in the Peruvian Andes, where glacier retreat has led to \r [...]"


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"[...] reduced streamflow that supports crucial dry season pasture (Alata \r et al., 2018). Though people 50 years old or older in this community \r are accustomed to living in the high pasture zones, younger people \r use livestock raising as a means of accumulating capital. They sell \r off their animals and move to towns at lower elevations. This loss of \r young adults has reduced the capacity of households to undertake \r the most demanding tasks, particularly in periods of inclement \r weather, accelerating the decline of herding. As a result, the human \r and animal populations of the communities are shrinking."


id: 4806cceadf167815e58a5bccc0ab50ba
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"The issue of habitability arises in the cases, mentioned above, of \r communities that relocate after floods or debris flows destroy houses \r and irrigation infrastructure, or damage fields and pastures. It occurs \r as well in the cases of households with extensive long-term migration, \r where agricultural and pastoral livelihoods are undermined by \r reduced water supply caused by cryospheric change (Barnett et al., \r 2005). In addition, the loss of cultural values, including spiritual \r and intrinsic values (Section  2.3.6), can contribute to decisions to \r migrate (Kaenzig, 2015). Combined with the patterns of permanent \r emigration, this issue of habitability raises the issue of limits to \r adaptation in mountain areas (Huggel et al., 2019). Projections of \r decreased streamflow by 2100 in watersheds with strong glacier melt \r water components in Asia, Europe, and North and South America \r (Section 2.3.1.1) indicate that threats to habitability may continue \r [...]"


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"[...] through this period and affect the endeavours of achieving the SDGs \r in developing countries (Rasul et al., 2019)."


id: 988ccd7cd05b1c35567a0a2151319291
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content:
"Recent research on cryosphere driven migration shows some \r cases of complex livelihood interactions or feedback loops, in \r which migration is not merely a result of changes in agricultural \r livelihoods, but also has impacts, either positive or negative, on these \r livelihoods (medium confidence). In some instances, the different \r livelihood strategies complement each other to support income and \r well-being. A review of migration in the Himalaya and Hindu Kush \r found that households that participated in labour migration and \r received remittances had improved adaptive capacity, and lowered \r exposure to natural hazards (Banerjee et al., 2018). In other cases, \r the households and communities, which undertake wage labour \r migration, encounter conflicts or incompatibilities between migration \r and agricultural livelihoods. Sustainable management of land, water \r and other resources is highly labour intensive, and hence labour \r [...]"


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"[...] mobility constrains and limits the adoption of sustainable practices \r (Gilles et al., 2013). Moreover, the labour available to a household \r is differentiated by age. In Northern Pakistan, where cryosphere \r changes are reducing streamflow the emigration of young people \r has led to a decline not only in the labour in fields and orchards, \r but also a decline in the maintenance of irrigation infrastructure, \r leading to an overall reduction of the agricultural livelihoods in the \r community (Parveen et al., 2015)."


id: 421fb1a3fdb99573c07b49578784b806
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"decades (Huggel et al., 2019), especially at high emission scenarios, \r which renders this issue a relevant aspect for planning climate \r resilient development in mountains. At least in one region, a concrete \r example for responding to and translating the Paris Agreement in a \r transboundary mountain setting, is reported. In 2015, through policy \r measures afforded by the Alpine Convention for the European Alps, \r the ministers for the environment of the Alpine countries established \r the Alpine Climate Board, who at the XV Alpine Conference in April \r 2019, presented a climate target system that includes strategic targets \r for 'climate-resilient Alps' (Hojesky et al., 2019). The implementation \r and monitoring of these initiatives, however, remains to be assessed \r on an evidentiary basis. Furthermore, mechanisms afforded through \r the workplan of the Warsaw International Mechanism, specifically \r its work area under 'Non-economic loss and damage', are prospects \r [...]"


id: a570b184a50041efa91d4967c2bd82f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 26336
content:
"[...] relevant to address impacts to cultural and intrinsic values associated \r with losses in the high mountain cryosphere (UNFCCC Secretariat, \r 2014; Serdeczny, 2019)."


id: 6937c17b41e08099a860d59308519d5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15773
content:
"Monitoring and reporting on progress towards sustainable \r development through the implementation of the SDGs (UN, 2015) is \r receiving some research attention in the context of mountain regions \r (Rasul and Tripura, 2016; Gratzer and Keeton, 2017; Bracher et al., \r 2018; Wymann von Dach et al., 2018; Kulonen et al., 2019; Mishra \r et al., 2019), noting key mountain specific considerations to improve \r the conditions under which the SDGs may serve a purpose in the \r mountain context. For example, previous research has identified \r a need for disaggregated data for SDG indicators and targets at \r subnational scales, with relevant area units that are both within \r country boundaries and/or across borders in transboundary settings \r (Rasul and Tripura, 2016; Bracher et al., 2018; Wymann von Dach \r et al., 2018 ). Furthermore, the use of non-standardised proxy data \r can further limit the potential for comparisons between countries \r [...]"


id: a41f46239b2b1e9c352aaf19f9b5d953
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] and within regions (Bracher et al., 2018; Kulonen et al., 2019). On \r substance, assessments of the economic performance of livelihood \r options, combined with robust socioeconomic data for mountain \r systems, are still lacking in many parts of the world, compromising \r the ability for meaningful comparison and aggregation of data and \r knowledge for monitoring and reporting on progress of SDGs at \r regional or global scales (Gratzer and Keeton, 2017)."


id: 6f57b411e5b3a86e4cc99bde620fce30
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16848
content:
"Impacts associated with climate-related changes in the high \r mountain cryosphere are evident in the observations reported in this \r chapter (Section 2.3). However, uncertainties remain with detection \r and attribution of key atmospheric drivers that influence much of \r these climate-related changes (Section 2.2.1), due to limited spatial \r density and/or temporal extent of observation records at high \r elevations. For example, trends in total or solid precipitation at high \r elevation remain highly uncertain, due to intrinsic uncertainties with \r in situ observation methods, and large natural variability. There \r are clear knowledge gaps in the distribution and characteristics \r of cryospheric variables, in particular the extent and ice content \r of permafrost in mountains, but also current glacier ice volumes, \r trends in lake and river ice, and the spatial and temporal variation \r of snow cover. These knowledge gaps persist despite a wealth of \r [...]"


id: ee01f71f89eeaa6c22e6350cf0cf0977
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] new data since AR5 especially from Earth observation satellites, \r which overcome much of the remoteness and inaccessibility of high \r mountains yet still face challenges for observations in mountains \r such as dealing with cloud cover and rugged terrain. Along with \r improved capacities to generate and integrate diverse observation \r data, initiatives such as citizen science (e.g., Dickerson-Lange et al., \r 2016; Wikstrom Jones et al., 2018) or Indigenous knowledge and \r local knowledge (Section 1.8.2, Cross Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1) can \r also complement some observations that are based on conventional \r instruments and models. Radiative forcing effects of light absorbing \r particles, and understanding their spatiotemporal dynamics, is a \r key knowledge gap for the attribution of changes in high mountain \r snow and glaciers, and the  understanding of regional feedbacks \r (Section 2.2.2, Box 2.2)."


id: 7ba00dc4e578245ef1d4671f523bbef5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18960
content:
"Disasters associated with natural hazards in high mountains are \r placing many communities and their potential for sustainable \r development at risk (Wymann von Dach et al., 2017; Keiler and \r Fuchs, 2018; Vaidya et al., 2019). The Sendai Framework for Disaster \r Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (UNISDR, 2015) offers a global policy \r framework under which risks, including climate change, can be \r accounted for and addressed at national scales. However, there is \r limited evidence in monitoring and reporting on progress on targets \r therein (Wymann von Dach et al., 2017), particularly in systematically \r reporting on root causes of disasters in high mountains and \r associated compounded risks and cascading impacts, and even \r more so when accounting for impacts related to climate change. \r Technical guidelines available for the high mountain context provide \r complementary means to monitor and report on the effectiveness of \r measures to reduce associated risks with changes in the cryosphere \r [...]"


id: 28dc94aa1954469bec401c7fb3c6387e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4407
content:
"Experiences with changes in water availability, and with changes \r in frequency and/or magnitude of natural hazards, demonstrate \r the relevance of integrated approaches to understand past impacts \r and prepare for future risks, where exposure and the underpinning \r existing vulnerabilities of mountain socioecological systems \r influence the extent of these impacts (Section  2.3.2.3). However, \r there is insufficient understanding of the effects of cryospheric \r change on some natural hazards such as glacier outburst floods and \r on infrastructure, for example for transportation. Increased wildfire \r risk with a shrinking cryosphere is an uncertainty both spatially and \r temporally and with consequent effects on mountain ecosystems, \r particularly with respect to soil carbon and potential biome shifts. \r Overall, few studies have taken a comprehensive risk approach to \r systematically characterise and compare magnitude and extent of \r [...]"


id: 8a8acf58fd5b332b5d02fcf36a4dcccf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 21550
content:
"[...] past impacts and future risks across high mountain regions, including \r compound risks and cascading impacts where instances of deep \r uncertainty in responses and outcomes may arise (Cross Chapter \r Box  5 in Chapter  1). Furthermore, a key knowledge gap is the "


id: 618be62499fe178740ce02116e02469c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 14453
content:
"for 2000-2009 was assumed to hold for 2006-2009, and the rate \r of -12 +- 5 Gt yr-1 for 2009-2018 was assumed to be valid for 2010-\r 2015. For Iceland the mass change rate by Bjornsson et al. (2013) \r for 2003-2010 was assumed to hold for 2006-2010, and the rate \r by Foresta et al. (2016) for 2011-2015 was used for the remaining \r years. The estimate for Iceland by Nilsson et al. (2015) for the period \r 2003-2009 is similar to the estimate by Bjornsson et al. (2013), but \r was not used since it is based on spatially relatively scarce remote \r sensing data compared to Bjornsson et al. (2013), which is based on \r detailed glaciological and geodetic balances. The GRACE estimate for \r Iceland was not used since it deviates strongly from the estimate by \r Zemp et al. (2019) which is well-constrained by direct observations \r in this region, while the GRACE estimate may have been affected \r by the mass change signal from ice masses in southeast Greenland \r [...]"


id: ead20856748ce247b67448552ed9f42e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38672
content:
"[...] and processes in the Earth mantle cause by isostatic adjustments \r since the end of the 19th century (Sorensen et al., 2017). For the \r Low Latitudes (>99% of glacier area in the Andes) available mass \r loss estimates differ considerably. Zemp et al. (2019)'s high estimate \r relies on extrapolation of observations from less than 1% of the \r glacier area, while the low estimate by Braun et al. (2019) for the \r Andes may underestimate mass loss due to incomplete coverage \r and systematic errors in their derived digital elevation models due \r to radar penetration. In the absence of other estimates for this \r period the average of both estimates is used. For Arctic Canada and \r the Southern Andes, the estimates by Zemp et al. (2019) were not \r considered since they rely on observations from less than 5% of the \r glacier area. The regional estimates by Gardner et al. (2013) for the \r period 2003-2009 informed AR5 and are given for comparison but \r [...]"


id: 5898b1dc52add80c949f1cde5f1c947b
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content:
"Nerilie Abram (Australia), Julie Arblaster (Australia), Kevin Arrigo (USA), Kumiko Azetzu-Scott \r (Canada), David Barber (Canada), Inka Bartsch (Germany), Jeremy Bassis (USA), Dorothea Bauch \r (Germany), Fikret Berkes (Canada), Philip Boyd (Australia), Angelika  Brandt (Germany), \r Lijing Cheng (China), Steven Chown (Australia), Alison Cook (United Kingdom), Jackie Dawson \r (Canada), Robert  M. DeConto (USA), Thorben Dunse (Norway/Germany), Andrea  Dutton \r (USA), Tamsin Edwards (United Kingdom), Laura  Eerkes-Medrano (Canada), Arne Eide \r (Norway), Howard Epstein (USA), F. Stuart Chapin III (USA), Mark Flanner (USA), Bruce Forbes \r (Finland), Jeremy Fyke (Canada), Andrey Glazovsky (Russian Federation), Jacqueline Grebmeier \r (USA), Guido Grosse (Germany), Anne Gunn (Canada), Sherilee Harper (Canada), Jan Hjort \r (Finland), Will Hobbs (Australia), Eric  P.  Hoberg (USA), Indi Hodgson-Johnston (Australia), \r [...]"


id: 21726c926a9b4f3687b478c4d098ab5e
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content:
"[...] David Holland (USA), Paul Holland (United Kingdom), Russell Hopcroft (USA), George Hunt \r (USA), Henry  Huntington (USA), Adrian Jenkins (United  Kingdom), Kit Kovacs (Norway), \r Gita  Ljubicic (Canada), Michael  Loranty (USA), Michelle Mack (USA), Andrew  Meijers \r (United Kingdom/Australia), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Hans Meltofte (Denmark), Alexander \r Milner (United  Kingdom), Pedro  Monteiro (South Africa), Lawrence  Mudryk (Canada), \r Mark Nuttall (Canada), Jamie  Oliver (United  Kingdom), James Overland (USA), Keith Reid \r (United Kingdom), Vladimir Romanovsky (USA/Russian Federation), Don E. Russell (Canada), \r Christina Schadel (USA/Switzerland), Lars H. Smedsrud (Norway), Julienne Stroeve (Canada/\r USA), Alessandro Tagliabue (United Kingdom), Mary-Louise Timmermans (USA), Merritt Turetsky \r (Canada), Michiel  van  den  Broeke (Netherlands), Roderik Van De Wal (Netherlands), \r Isabella Velicogna (USA/Italy), Jemma Wadham (United Kingdom), Michelle Walvoord (USA), \r [...]"


id: 5d12720c050653df14eb603bc1208b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13643
content:
"It is extremely likely that the rapid ice loss from the Greenland \r and Antarctic ice sheets during the early 21st century has \r increased into the near present day, adding to the ice sheet \r contribution to global sea level rise. From Greenland, the 2012-\r 2016 ice losses (-247 +- 15 Gt yr-1) were similar to those from 2002 \r to 2011 (-263 +- 21 Gt yr-1) and extremely likely greater than from \r 1992 to 2001 (-8 +- 82 Gt yr-1). Summer melting of the Greenland \r Ice Sheet (GIS) has increased since the 1990s (very high confidence)\r to a  level unprecedented over at least the last 350 years, and \r two-to-fivefold the pre-industrial level (medium confidence). From \r Antarctica, the 2012-2016 losses (-199 +- 26 Gt yr-1) were extremely \r likely greater than those from 2002 to 2011 (-82 +- 27 Gt yr-1) and \r likely greater than from 1992 to 2001 (-51 +- 73 Gt yr-1). Antarctic \r ice loss is dominated by acceleration, retreat and rapid thinning \r [...]"


id: 96b13ca648bf3bfdf828d303f7893380
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 23716
content:
"[...] of major West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) outlet glaciers (very high \r confidence), driven by melting of ice shelves by warm ocean waters \r (high confidence). The combined sea level rise contribution from both \r ice sheets for 2012-2016 was 1.2 +- 0.1 mm yr-1, a 29% increase on \r the 2002-2011 contribution and a ~700% increase on the 1992-\r 2001 period. {3.3.1}"


id: f06888bbfac05025c737b2350188cf7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39677
content:
"Climate-related changes to Arctic hydrology, wildfire and \r abrupt thaw are occurring (high confidence), with impacts \r on vegetation and water and food security. Snow and lake \r ice cover has declined, with June snow extent decreasing 13.4 \r +-  5.4% per decade (1967-2018) (high confidence). Runoff into \r the Arctic Ocean increased for Eurasian and North American rivers \r by 3.3 +- 1.6% and 2.0 +- 1.8% respectively (1976-2017; medium \r confidence). Area burned and frequency of fires (including extreme \r fires) are unprecedented over the last 10,000 years (high confidence). \r There has been an overall greening of the tundra biome, but also \r browning in some regions of tundra and boreal forest, and changes \r in the abundance and distribution of animals including reindeer and \r salmon (high confidence). Together, these impact access to (and food \r availability within) herding, hunting, fishing, forage and gathering \r [...]"


id: 2ba92fa7e97e83443c8a877de230f1f5
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vector_id: 4939
content:
"[...] areas, affecting the livelihood, health and cultural identity of residents \r including Indigenous peoples (high confidence). {3.4.1; 3.4.3; 3.5.2}"


id: 48346e5e22749151c9a8dbd0c7d18d22
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 9916
content:
"Projected permafrost thaw and decrease in snow will affect \r Arctic hydrology and wildfire, with impacts on vegetation and \r human infrastructure (medium confidence). About 20% of Arctic \r land permafrost is vulnerable to abrupt permafrost thaw and ground \r subsidence, which is expected to increase small lake area by over \r 50% by 2100 for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). Even as the overall \r regional water cycle intensifies, including increased precipitation, \r evapotranspiration, and river discharge to the Arctic Ocean, decreases \r in snow and permafrost may lead to soil drying (medium confidence). \r Fire is projected to increase for the rest of this century across most \r tundra and boreal regions, while interactions between climate and \r shifting vegetation will influence future fire intensity and frequency \r (medium confidence). By 2050, 70% of Arctic infrastructure is located \r in regions at risk from permafrost thaw and subsidence; adaptation \r [...]"


id: 91ff93026ec7ab0343023d64efc52ad5
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 22904
content:
"[...] measures taken in advance could reduce costs arising from thaw and \r other climate change related impacts such as increased flooding, \r precipitation, and freeze-thaw events by half (medium confidence). \r {3.4.1; 3.4.2; 3.4.3; 3.5.2}"


id: 15dbfb3072dfa7a5619bc4a6ea5e6451
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1061
content:
"Future climate-induced changes in the polar oceans, sea ice, \r snow and permafrost will drive habitat and biome shifts, \r with associated changes in the ranges and abundance of \r ecologically important species (medium confidence). Projected \r shifts will include further habitat contraction and changes in \r abundance for polar species, including marine mammals, birds, fish, \r and Antarctic krill (medium confidence). Projected range expansion \r of subarctic marine species will increase pressure for high-Arctic \r species (medium confidence), with regionally variable impacts. \r Continued loss of Arctic multi-year sea ice will affect ice-related and \r pelagic primary production (high confidence), with impacts for whole \r ice-associated, seafloor and open ocean ecosystems. On Arctic land, \r projections indicate a  loss of globally unique biodiversity as some \r high Arctic species will be outcompeted by more temperate species \r [...]"


id: b023335d775bf0516583838c0c524024
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vector_id: 28224
content:
"[...] and very limited refugia exist (medium confidence). Woody shrubs \r and trees are projected to expand, covering 24-52% of the current \r tundra region by 2050. {3.2.2.1; 3.2.3; 3.2.3.1; Box 3.4; 3.4.2; 3.4.3}"


id: a0cbb388e0782085186f17e54934ddd3
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25500
content:
"It is important to recognise the existence of multiple and diverse \r perspectives of the polar regions, many of them overlapping. These \r multiple perspectives encompass the polar regions as a  source \r of resources, a  key part of the global climate system, a  place for \r preserving intact ecosystems, a place for international cooperation \r and, importantly, a homeland. While many of these perspectives are \r equally relevant for both polar regions, only the Arctic has a population \r for whom the region is a permanent home: approximately four million \r people reside there, of whom 10% are indigenous. By contrast, the \r Antarctic population changes seasonally between approximately \r 1100 and 4400, based predominantly at research stations. When \r assessing knowledge relating to climate change in the context of \r adaptation options, limits and enhancing resilience (Cross-Chapter \r Box 2 in Chapter 1), such differences are important as they are linked \r [...]"


id: 9fa06f5bebeefd84205e69f999fd7bd9
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vector_id: 25295
content:
"Figure 3.2 |  The Arctic (top) and Antarctic (bottom) polar regions. Various place names referred to in the text are marked. Dashed lines denote approximate boundaries for \r the polar regions; as their spatial footprint varies in relation to particular cryosphere and ocean elements or scientific disciplines, this chapter adopts a purposefully flexible \r approach to their delineation. The southern polar region encompasses the flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) at least as far north as the Subantarctic Front \r and fully encompasses the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Statistical Areas (CCAMLR, 2017c), the Antarctic continent and Antarctic \r and subantarctic islands, whilst the marine Arctic includes the areas of the Arctic Large Marine Ecosystems (PAME, 2013). The terrestrial Arctic comprises the areas of the \r [...]"


id: a7a8277d00f8a18c92b167130927971c
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content:
"[...] northern continuous and discontinuous permafrost zone, the Arctic biome inclusive of glacial ice, and the parts of the boreal biome that are characterised by cryosphere \r elements, such as permafrost and persistent winter season snow cover."


id: d9d723425eed4addaad5c1077679d039
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 35624
content:
"Over the last two decades, Arctic surface air temperature has increased at more than double the global average (high confidence) \r (Notz and Stroeve, 2016; Richter-Menge et al., 2017). Attribution studies show the important role of anthropogenic increases in\r greenhouse gases in driving observed Arctic surface temperature increases (Fyfe et al., 2013; Najafi et al., 2015), so there is high \r confidence in projections of further Arctic warming (Overland et al., 2018a). Mechanisms for Arctic amplification are still debated, \r but include: reduced summer albedo due to sea ice and snow cover loss, the increase of total water vapour content in the Arctic\r atmosphere, changes in total cloudiness in summer, additional heat generated by newly formed sea ice across more extensive open\r water areas in the autumn, northward transport of heat and moisture and the lower rate of heat loss to space from the Arctic relative \r [...]"


id: 2d05e55211422d6e7142ed66f46cb0d5
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 5192
content:
"[...] to the subtropics (Serreze and Barry, 2011; Pithan and Mauritsen, 2014; Goosse et al., 2018; Stuecker et al., 2018) (SM3.1.1)."


id: 85b1b784da8fd37de6b178add703158e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20665
content:
"A number of recent events in the Arctic indicate new extremes in the Arctic climate system. Annual Arctic surface temperature for \r each of the past five years since AR5 (2014-2018; relative to a 1980-2010 base line) exceeded that of any year since 1900 (Overland \r et al., 2018b). Winter (January to March) near-surface temperature anomalies of +6oC (relative to 1981-2010) were recorded in the \r central Arctic during both 2016 and 2018, nearly double the previous record anomalies (Overland and Wang, 2018a). These events \r were caused by a split of the tropospheric polar vortex into two cells, which facilitated the intrusion of subarctic storms (Overland and \r Wang, 2016). The resulting advection of warm air and moisture from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans into the central Arctic increased \r downward longwave radiation, delayed sea ice freeze-up, and contributed to an unprecedented absence of sea ice. Delayed freeze-up \r [...]"


id: ad88fb928b6a6828abe42790ecaf4ab
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 27772
content:
"[...] of sea ice in subarctic seas (Chukchi, Barents and Kara) acts as a positive feedback allowing warmer temperatures to progress further \r toward the North Pole (Kim et al., 2017). In addition to dramatic Arctic summer sea ice loss over the past 15 years, all Arctic winter \r sea ice maxima of the last 4 years were at record low levels relative to 1979-2014 (Overland, 2018). Multi-year, large magnitude \r extreme positive Arctic temperatures and sea ice minimums (Section 3.2.1.1) since AR5 provide high agreement and medium evidence\r of contemporary conditions well outside the envelope of previous experience (1900-2017) (AMAP, 2017d; Walsh et al., 2017)."


id: 2f822db6afc36e2c8e75cff588dd93c3
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5619
content:
"In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic continent has seen less uniform temperature changes over the past 30-50 years, with warming \r over parts of West Antarctica and no significant overall change over East Antarctica (Nicolas and Bromwich, 2014; Jones et al., \r 2016; Turner et al., 2016), though there is low confidence in these changes given the sparse in situ records and large interannual \r to interdecadal variability. This weaker amplified warming compared to the Arctic is due to deep ocean mixing and ocean heat \r uptake over the Southern Ocean (Collins et al., 2013). The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific South American mode (by which \r tropical Pacific convective heating signals are transmitted to high southern latitudes) and zonal-wave 3 are the dominant large-scale \r atmospheric circulation drivers of Antarctic surface climate and sea ice changes (SM3.1.3). Over recent decades the SAM has exhibited \r [...]"


id: cdd89eb275048388bcb78401ed5e8370
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vector_id: 33544
content:
"[...] a positive trend during austral summer, indicating a strengthening of the surface westerly winds around Antarctica. This extended \r positive phase of the SAM is unprecedented in at least 600 years, according to palaeoclimate reconstructions (Abram et al., 2014; \r Datwyler et al., 2017) and is associated with cooler conditions over the continent."


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"Stroeve et al., 2012b; Serreze et al., 2016) and is exacerbated by the \r transition from perennial to seasonal sea ice (Haine and Martin, \r 2017; see Section 3.2.1.1.2). Other drivers include increased warm, \r moist air intrusions into the Arctic during both winter (Box 3.1) and \r spring (Boisvert et al., 2016; Cullather et al., 2016; Kapsch et al., \r 2016; Mortin et al., 2016; Graham et al., 2017; Hegyi and Taylor, \r 2018), radiative feedbacks associated with cloudiness and humidity \r (Kapsch et al., 2013; Pithan and Mauritsen, 2014; Hegyi and Deng, \r 2016; Morrison et al., 2018), and increased exchanges of sensible \r and latent heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere (Serreze et al., \r 2012; Taylor et al., 2018). A lack of complete process understanding \r limits a more definitive differentiation between anthropogenic versus \r internal drivers of summer Arctic sea ice loss (Serreze et al., 2016; \r Ding et al., 2017; Meehl et al., 2018). The unabated reduction in Arctic \r [...]"


id: b0f0746cd40896afceed59df105f55a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] summer sea ice since AR5 means contributions to additional global \r radiative forcing (Flanner et al., 2011) have continued, with estimates \r of up to an additional 6.4 +- 0.9 W/m2\r  of solar energy input to the \r Arctic Ocean region since 1979 (Pistone et al., 2014)."


id: 1ab54d59a39f0278885d8da353a75ad3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1902
content:
"The proportion of Arctic sea ice at least 5 years old declined from \r 30% to 2% between 1979 and 2018; over the same period first-year \r sea ice proportionally increased from approximately 40% to 60-70% \r (Stroeve and Notz, 2018) (very high confidence) (Sections 3.2.1.1.3 \r and 3.2.1.1.4). Arctic sea ice has thinned through volume reductions \r in satellite altimeter retrievals (Laxon et al., 2013; Kwok, 2018), \r ocean-sea ice reanalyses (Chevallier et al., 2017) and in situ\r measurements (Renner et al., 2014; Haas et al., 2017) (very high \r confidence). Data from multiple satellite altimeter missions show \r declines in Arctic Basin ice thickness from 2000 to 2012 of -0.58 \r +- 0.07 m per decade (Lindsay and Schweiger, 2015). Integration of \r data from submarines, moorings, and earlier satellite radar altimeter \r missions shows ice thickness declined across the central Arctic by \r 65%, from  3.59 to  1.25 m  between 1975 and 2012 (Lindsay and \r [...]"


id: 6e3772503ffc5679721b948efb5ced42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16655
content:
"[...] Schweiger, 2015). There is emerging evidence that this sea ice volume \r loss may be unprecedented over the past century (Schweiger et al., \r 2019). New estimates of ice thickness are available for the marginal \r seas (up to a maximum thickness of ~1 metre) from low-frequency \r satellite passive microwave measurements (Kaleschke et al., 2016; \r Ricker et al., 2017) but data are only available since 2010. The \r shift to thinner seasonal sea ice contributes to further ice extent \r reductions through enhanced summer season melt via increased \r energy absorption (Nicolaus et al., 2012), and it is vulnerable to \r fragmentation from the passage of intense Arctic cyclones in summer \r and increased ocean swell conditions (Zhang et al., 2013; Thomson \r and Rogers, 2014)."


id: ea96b04f6e3dd6cdb09727ed5f7ee0bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38633
content:
"landfast sea ice thickness all exhibit thinning trends in springtime \r maximum sea ice thickness since the mid-1960s (high confidence): \r declines of 11 cm per decade in the Barents Sea (Gerland et al., \r 2008), 3.3 cm per decade along the Siberian Coast (Polyakov et al., \r 2010), and  3.5 cm per decade in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago \r (Howell et al., 2016). Over a  shorter 1976-2007 period, winter \r season landfast sea ice extent from measurements across the \r Arctic significantly decreased at a rate of 7% per decade, with the \r largest decreases in the regions of Svalbard (24% per decade) and \r the northern coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (20% per \r decade) (Yu et al., 2013). Svalbard and the Chukchi Sea regions \r are experiencing the largest declines in landfast sea ice duration \r (~1 week per decade) since the 1970s (Yu et al., 2013; Mahoney \r et al., 2014). While most Arctic landfast sea ice melts completely \r [...]"


id: 46664b81ab93f75f54b6fccb03b29c3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9606
content:
"[...] each summer, perennial landfast ice (also termed an 'ice-plug') \r occurs in Nansen Sound and the Sverdrup Channel in the Canadian \r Arctic Archipelago. These ice-plugs were in place continuously from \r the start of observations in the early 1960s, until they disappeared \r during the anomalously warm summer of 1998, and they have rarely \r re-formed since 2005 (Pope et al., 2017). The loss of this perennial sea \r ice is associated with reduced landfast ice duration in the northern \r Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Galley et al., 2012; Yu et al., 2013) and \r increased inflow of multi-year ice from the Arctic Ocean into the \r northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Howell et al., 2013)."


id: f321339c8a7598e7f94c4c5418dfeabd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40159
content:
"Winds associated with the climatological Arctic sea level pressure \r pattern drive the Beaufort Gyre (Dewey et al., 2018; Meneghello \r et al., 2018) and the Transpolar Drift Stream (Vihma et al., 2012), \r which retains sea ice within the central Arctic Basin, and exports sea \r ice out of the Fram Strait, respectively. There is high confidence that \r sea ice drift speeds have increased since 1979, both within the Arctic \r Basin and through Fram Strait (Rampal et al., 2009; Krumpen et al., \r 2019), attributed to thinner ice (Spreen et al., 2011) and changes \r in wind forcing (Olason and Notz, 2014). Fram Strait sea ice area \r export estimates range between 600,000 to 1  million km2\r  of ice \r annually, which represents approximately 10% of the ice within the \r Arctic Basin (medium confidence) (Kwok et al., 2013; Krumpen et al., \r 2016; Smedsrud et al., 2017; Zamani et al., 2019). Sea ice volume \r flux estimates through Fram Strait are now available from satellite \r [...]"


id: 1fd0d751789d524d704d25ae1287bcfa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2800
content:
"[...] altimeter datasets (Ricker et al., 2018), but they cover too short a time \r period for robust trend analysis. Observations of extreme Arctic sea \r ice deformation is attributed to the combination of decreased ice \r thickness and increased ice motion (Itkin et al., 2017)."


id: b8ec56b7c6205afc29e2b28bb0aec927
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29743
content:
"Since AR5, understanding how observed changes in the Arctic can influence mid-latitude weather has emerged as a  societally \r important topic because hundreds of millions of people can potentially be impacted (Jung et al., 2015). The early to middle part \r of the Holocene coincided with substantial decreases in net precipitation that may be due to weakening jet stream winds related\r to Arctic temperatures (Routson et al., 2019). There is only low to medium confidence in the current nature of Arctic/mid-latitude \r weather linkages because conclusions of recent analyses are inconsistent (National Research Council, 2014; Barnes and Polvani, \r 2015; Francis, 2017). The atmosphere interacts with the ocean and cryosphere through radiation, heat, precipitation and wind, \r but a full understanding of complex interconnected physical processes is lacking. Arctic forcing on the atmosphere from loss of sea \r [...]"


id: a142124791916dde46ae205584ff804d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25593
content:
"[...] ice and terrestrial snow is increasing, but the potential for Arctic/mid-latitude weather linkages varies for different jet stream patterns \r (Grotjahn et al., 2016; Messori et al., 2016; Overland and Wang, 2018a). Connectivity is reduced by the influence of chaotic internal \r natural variability and other tropical and oceanic forcing. Part of the scientific disagreement is due to irregular connections in the \r Arctic to mid-latitude linkage pathways, both within and between years (Overland and Wang, 2018b)."


id: a6a9fedd87dc3e2271520b4d07567936
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26537
content:
"Considerable literature exists on the potential for sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas to drive cold episodes in eastern Asia (Kim \r et al., 2014; Kretschmer et al., 2016), while sea ice anomalies in the Chukchi Sea and areas west of Greenland are associated with cold \r events in eastern North America (Kug et al., 2015; Ballinger et al., 2018; Overland and Wang, 2018a). Such connections, however, are \r only episodic (Cohen et al., 2018). While there is evidence of an increase in the frequency of weak polar vortex events (Screen et al., \r 2018), studies do not show increases in the number of mid-latitude cold events in observations or model projections (Ayarzaguena and \r Screen, 2016; Trenary et al., 2016). Potential Arctic/mid-latitude interactions have a more regional tropospheric pathway in November \r to December (Honda et al., 2009; Chen et al., 2016a; McKenna et al., 2018), whereas January to March has a more hemispheric \r [...]"


id: 3a791ff6fa6db6db9978fa14a1bc6379
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7488
content:
"[...] stratospheric pathway involving migration of the polar vortex off of its usual centred location on the North Pole (Cohen et al., 2012; \r Nakamura et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2018b). Overall, changes in the stratospheric polar vortex and Northern Annual Mode are not \r separable from natural variability, and so cannot be attributed to greenhouse gas forced sea ice loss (Screen et al., 2018)."


id: e9f7b6f4798b524907d22aaca1b756dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38512
content:
"While Atlantic Water Layer temperatures appear to show less \r variability since 2008, total heat content in this layer continues to \r increase (Polyakov et al., 2017). Recent changes have been dubbed the \r 'Atlantification' of the Northern Barents Sea and Eurasian Basin (Arthun \r et al., 2012; Lind et al., 2018), characterised by weaker stratification \r and enhanced Atlantic Water Layer heat fluxes further northeast \r (medium confidence). Polyakov et al. (2017) estimate 2-4 times larger \r heat fluxes in 2014-2015 compared with 2007-2008. In the Canadian \r Basin, the maximum temperature of the Pacific Water Layer increased \r by ~0.5oC between 2009 and 2013 (Timmermans et al., 2014), with \r a doubling in integrated heat content over 1987-2017 (Timmermans \r et al., 2018). Over 2001-2014, heat transport associated with Bering \r Strait inflow increased by 60%, from around 10 TW in 2001 to 16 TW in \r 2014, due to increases in both volume flux and temperature (Woodgate \r [...]"


id: cfd4e2201cc9986ddec143b07584a385
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33922
content:
"After around 2005, improved upper ocean heat content estimates \r became available via Argo profiling floats (Section 1.8.1; Section 5.2). \r For 2005-2017, multiple datasets show that the heat gained by the \r Southern Ocean south of 30oS was 45-62% of the global ocean heat \r gain (Table  3.1) (equivalent figures for other indicative Southern \r Ocean extents are in Table SM3.2). This accords with Roemmich et al. \r (2015), who found that during 2006-2013 the ocean south of 20oS \r accounted for 67-98% of total heat gain in the upper 2000 m of the \r global ocean. (The smaller proportion for 2005-2017 c.f. 2006-2013 \r is due to comparatively greater warming in the earlier part of the \r common period). The recent Southern Ocean heat gain is thus larger \r than its long-term trend over either the preceding several decades \r (1970-2004, 30-51%, Table SM3.3) or the full period 1970-2017 \r (35-43%; Table  3.1 and above). There is high confidence that the \r [...]"


id: 94f9faa41c72a1dfff05d47ddf3385a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23415
content:
"[...] Southern Ocean has increased its role in global ocean heat content in \r recent years compared with the past several decades. Attribution of \r this increased role is currently lacking."


id: 735d1c65bb06a50689c7b11b53255bc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17550
content:
"The Southern Ocean is important for the transfer of heat from the \r atmosphere to the global ocean, including heat from anthropogenic \r warming (Frolicher et al., 2015; Shi et al., 2018). The Southern \r Ocean accounted for ~75% of the global ocean uptake of excess \r heat during 1870-1995 (Figure SM3.2; Frolicher et al., 2015), of \r which ~43% resided in the Southern Ocean with the remainder \r redistributed to lower latitudes. Over 1970-2017, observations show \r that the upper 2000 m of the ocean south of 30oS was responsible \r for 35-43% of the increase in global ocean heat content (Table 3.1). \r Both models and observations show that, relative to its size (Table \r SM3.1), the Southern Ocean is disproportionately important in the \r increase in global upper ocean heat content (high confidence). \r Multi-decadal warming of the Southern Ocean has been attributed \r to anthropogenic factors, especially the role of greenhouse gases but \r [...]"


id: 4d1bc25def496dba7f09c1436bf005ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10836
content:
"[...] also ozone depletion (Armour et al., 2016; Shi et al., 2018; Swart \r et al., 2018; Irving et al., 2019) (medium confidence)."


id: a9adcb41b780b0eea5a3b97db952a49b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27072
content:
"Updating WGI AR5 (their Section  3.3.3.3), recent Arctic-wide \r estimates yield a freshwater increase (relative to salinity of 34.8 on \r the Practical Salinity Scale, used throughout this chapter) of 600 \r +- 300 km3 yr-1 over 1992-2012, with about two-thirds concomitant \r with decreasing salinity, and the remainder with a  thickening of \r the freshwater layer (medium confidence) (Rabe et al., 2014; Haine \r et al., 2015; Carmack et al., 2016). The Beaufort Gyre region has \r increased its freshwater by ~40% (6600 km3\r ) over 2003-2017; this, \r and the Gyre's strengthening, have been attributed to dominance of \r clockwise wind patterns over the Canadian Basin over 1997-2016 \r and freshwater accumulation from sea ice-melt (Krishfield et al., 2014; \r Proshutinsky et al., 2015). Freshwater decreases in the East Siberian, \r Laptev, Chukchi and Kara seas are estimated to be ~180 km3 over \r 2003-2014 (Armitage et al., 2016). During the 2000s, freshwater \r [...]"


id: 7a4df87ab3067a0296a7693ee92a8158
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18714
content:
"[...] content in the upper 100 m of the northern Barents Sea declined by \r about 32%, from a mean of ~2.5 m (relative to a salinity of 35) in \r 1970-1999, to 1.7 m in 2010-2016 (Lind et al., 2018). An increasing \r trend of 30 +-  20 km3 yr-1 in freshwater flux through Bering Strait, \r primarily due to increased volume flux, was measured from 1991 \r to 2015, with record maximum freshwater influx in 2014 of around \r 3500 km3 in that year (Woodgate, 2018). Freshwater fluxes from rivers \r are also increasing (Section 3.4.1.2.2), and there have been observed \r increases in discharge of glacial ice from Greenland (Section 3.3.1.3)."


id: 825bf20216a56d95f190df75cdc6dcc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20061
content:
"Robbins et al. (2013) showed aragonite undersaturation for about \r 20% of surface waters in the Canada and Makarov Basins, where \r substantial sea ice melt occurred. Qi et al. (2017) reported that \r aragonite undersaturation has expanded northward by at least 5o of \r latitude, and deepened by ~100 m  between the 1990s and 2010 \r primarily due to increased Pacific Winter Water transport. In the East \r Siberian Arctic Shelf, extreme aragonite undersaturation was driven \r by the degradation of terrestrial organic matter and runoff of Arctic \r river water with elevated CO2 concentrations, reflecting pH changes \r in excess of those projected in this region for 2100 (Semiletov \r et al., 2016) (high confidence); this was also observed along the \r continental margin and traced in the deep Makarov and Canada \r Basins (Anderson et al., 2017a). The variable buffering capacities of \r rivers flowing through watersheds with different bedrock geology \r [...]"


id: 3b1d40e71e2803298daf387659ac5afb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7586
content:
"[...] also influenced the state of ocean acidification in coastal regions \r (Tank et al., 2012; Azetsu-Scott et al., 2014)."


id: be65a23a92f360a568f86f0687d135b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30759
content:
"Observed Southern Ocean freshening trends are consistent with WGI \r AR5; subsequent studies have increased confidence in their magnitude \r and sign, and also attributed them to anthropogenic influences (Swart \r et al., 2018). Changes over 1950-2010 show persistent surface water \r freshening over the whole Southern Ocean, with subducted mode/\r intermediate waters carrying trends of 0.0002-0.0008 yr-1 to below \r 1500 m (Skliris et al., 2014), whilst de Lavergne et al. (2014) observe \r a  circumpolar freshening south of the ACC of  0.0011 +-  0.0004 \r yr-1 in the upper 100 m since the 1960s (medium confidence). This \r intensifies over the Antarctic continental shelves (except along the \r Western Antarctic Peninsula), where freshening of up to  0.01 yr-1\r is observed (Schmidtko et al., 2014). Freshening may be driven by \r increases in precipitation, but while models (Pauling et al., 2016) and \r observations suggest an increase may have occurred over the last \r [...]"


id: 244fb199e5a92a11ae822d41883c56a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3579
content:
"[...] 60 years, uncertainty is presently too high to quantify its net impact \r (Skliris et al., 2014). Recently, there has been increased recognition \r of the importance of sea ice in driving Southern Ocean salinity \r changes, with Haumann et al. (2016) demonstrating that wind driven "


id: 3431f2cea4f57a5453e7f28be6f2be3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6420
content:
"Since AR5, there are new constraints on the seasonal-to-decadal \r variability in the Southern Ocean CO2 flux (McNeil and Matear, 2013; \r Landschutzer et al., 2014; Landschutzer et al., 2015; Gregor et al., 2017; \r Ritter et al., 2017; Keppler and Landschutzer, 2019) (Figure SM3.4), \r with mean annual flux anomalies varying from 0.3 +- 0.1 Pg C yr-1\r in 2001-2002 to -0.4 Pg C yr-1 in 2012 (Landschutzer et al., 2015); \r this can affect the magnitude of the global CO2 sink (Section 5.2.2). \r A  weakening CO2 sink during the 1990s (Le Quere et al., 2007) \r reversed in the 2000s as part of a  decadal cycle (Landschutzer \r et al., 2015; Munro et al., 2015; Williams et al., 2017) (SM3.2.3; \r Figure SM3.4), with a  weakening again since 2011 (Keppler and \r Landschutzer, 2019). While the weakening sink during the 1990s \r was explained as a response to changes in the circumpolar winds \r over the Southern Ocean enhancing the outgassing of natural CO2, \r [...]"


id: 15eb64ac94890302ca6e4e32d543dfb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1075
content:
"[...] the subsequent changes appear due to a  combination of changes \r in regional winds, temperature and circulation (Landschutzer et al., \r 2015; Gregor et al., 2017; Keppler and Landschutzer, 2019). Data \r scarcity, especially in winter, remains a challenge (Ritter et al., 2017; \r Fay et al., 2018; Gruber et al., 2019b); recent data from pH-enabled \r floats highlighted the potential role for winter outgassing south of \r the Polar Front (Williams et al., 2017; Gray et al., 2018). Overall, \r there is medium confidence that the Southern Ocean CO 2 sink has \r experienced significant decadal variations since the 1980s. "


id: 52440d2806aebdcb1e32d0298cc18b27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11749
content:
"Satellite data indicate a  general strengthening of the surface \r geostrophic currents in the Arctic basin (Armitage et al., 2017). \r Between 2003 and 2014, the strength of some currents in the Beaufort \r Gyre approximately doubled (Armitage et al., 2017). Over 2001-2014, \r annual Bering Strait volume transport from the Pacific to the Arctic \r Ocean increased from 0.7 x 106\r  m3s-1 to 1.2 x 106 m3s-1 (Woodgate \r et al., 2015). Mesoscale eddies are characterised by horizontal scales \r of ~10 km in the Arctic, and are important components of the ocean \r system. Increased wind power input to the Arctic Ocean system can \r in principle be compensated by the production of eddy kinetic energy; \r analysis of observations in the Beaufort Gyre region suggest this is \r about as likely as not (Meneghello et al., 2017). Data of sufficiently \r high resolution is limited in the boundary regions of the Arctic Ocean, \r precluding estimates of eddy variability on a basin-wide scale. In the \r [...]"


id: 185b20d3cc0f94f6b763883754eb497b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1493
content:
"[...] central basin regions, a statistically significant higher concentration of \r eddies was sampled in the Canadian Basin compared to the Eurasian \r Basin between 2003 and 2014; further, a  medium correspondence \r was found between eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre region and \r intensified gyre flow (Zhao et al., 2014; Zhao et al., 2016)."


id: 5e338ed2ceeababf6eaf170d5d1d4c9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13861
content:
"Trends in the atmospheric forcing of the Southern Ocean are dominated by a strengthening of westerly winds in recent decades (Swart \r et al., 2015a), but there is no evidence that this enhanced wind stress has significantly altered the ACC transport. While the annual \r mean value of transport is stable in the instrumental period (Chidichimo et al., 2014; Koenig et al., 2014; Donohue et al., 2016) it is \r difficult to resolve changes in barotropic transport; overall there is medium confidence that ACC transport is only weakly sensitive \r to changes in winds. This is consistent with longer-term analyses that find only minimal changes in ACC transport since the last\r glaciation (McCave et al., 2013). Theoretical predictions and high-resolution ocean modelling suggest that the weak sensitivity of the \r ACC to changes in wind stress is a consequence of eddy saturation (Munday et al., 2013), whereby the time-mean state of the ocean \r [...]"


id: c5f7d19c56f8644b5576fc49a7a0c9d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32137
content:
"[...] remains close to a marginal condition for eddy instability and hence additional energy input from stronger winds cascades rapidly \r into the smaller-scale eddy field. Satellite measurements of eddy kinetic energy over the last two decades are consistent with this, \r showing a statistically significant upward trend in eddy energy in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean (Hogg \r et al., 2015) (medium confidence). This is supported by eddy-resolving models, which also show a marked regional variability (Patara \r et al., 2016), and there is evidence that local hotspots in eddy energy, especially downstream of major topographic features including \r the Drake Passage, Kerguelen Plateau, Campbell Plateau and the East Pacific Rise, may dominate the regional fields (Thompson and \r Naveira Garabato, 2014). "


id: 591165e4f9ab61d764d9de7440039bad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12913
content:
"Working Group I (WGI) of the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5) assessed that there was medium confidence that the mean position \r of the ACC had moved southwards in response to a contraction of the Southern Ocean circumpolar winds. Such movements can in \r principle have profound effects on marine ecosystems via, e.g., changing habitat ranges for different species (e.g., Cristofari et al., 2018; \r Meijers et al., 2019) (Section 3.2.3.2). Since AR5, however, substantial contrary evidence has emerged. While winds have strengthened \r over the Southern Ocean, reanalysis products show no significant shift in the annual mean latitude of zonal wind jets between 1979-\r 2009 (Swart et al., 2015a). Similarly, a variety of methods applied to satellite data have found no long-term trend and no statistically \r significant correlation of ACC position with winds (Gille, 2014; Chapman, 2017; Chambers, 2018). The discrepancy between these \r [...]"


id: 9077a665f22dd0148f7461ae5f6176cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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vector_id: 22619
content:
"[...] studies and those assessed in WGI AR5 appears to be caused by issues associated with using a fixed sea surface height contour as\r a proxy for frontal position in the presence of strongly eddying fields (Chapman, 2014) and large-scale increases in sea surface height \r consistent with mean global trends in sea level rise (Gille, 2014). The increase in sea surface height is ascribed largely to warming-driven \r steric expansion in the upper ocean, but the mechanism driving such warming is still uncertain (Gille, 2014). These recent findings do \r not preclude more local changes in frontal position, but it is now assessed as unlikely that there has been a statistically significant net \r southward movement of the mean ACC position over the past 20 years."


id: b07a393870bc69cac8298045db3f3b1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28285
content:
"The considerable Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5  (CMIP5) inter-model variations in Southern Ocean time-mean \r circulation projections reported in WGI AR5 (Meijers et al., 2012; Downes and Hogg, 2013) remain largely unchanged. Some of the\r differences in projected changes have been found to be correlated with biases in the various models' ability to simulate the historical \r state of the Southern Ocean, such as mixed layer depth (Sallee et al., 2013a) and westerly wind jet latitude (Bracegirdle et al., 2013). \r This suggests that bias reduction against observed historical metrics (Russell et al., 2018) in future generations of coupled models \r (e.g., Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)) should lead to improved confidence in aspects of projected Southern \r Ocean changes. CMIP5 models suggest that the subduction of mode and intermediate water will increase (Sallee et al., 2013b), which \r [...]"


id: ee061518aaf08a2edee9fb87b77728a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39254
content:
"[...] will affect oxygen and nutrient transports, and the overall transport of the Southern Ocean upper overturning cell will increase by up \r to 20% (Downes and Hogg, 2013), but model performance is limited by the inability to explicitly resolve eddy processes (Gent, 2016; \r Downes et al., 2018). The formation and export of Antarctic Bottom Water is predicted to continue decreasing (Heuze et al., 2015) \r due to warming and freshening of surface source waters near the continent. These are, however, some of the most poorly represented \r processes in global models. Further uncertainty derives from increased meltwater from the AIS not being considered in the CMIP5\r climate models, despite its potential for significant impact on Southern Ocean dynamics and the global climate, and its potential for \r positive feedbacks (Bronselaer et al., 2018). Due to these uncertainties, low confidence is therefore ascribed to the CMIP5-based \r [...]"


id: 25ed5c2833a501ebcefd895e5ac5d9b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3851
content:
"and thermodynamics (Massonnet et al., 2018). Internal climate \r variability results in an uncertainty of approximately 20 years in the \r timing of seasonally ice-free conditions (Notz, 2015; Jahn, 2018), but \r the clear link between summer sea ice extent and cumulative CO2\r emissions provides a  basis for when consistent ice-free conditions \r may be expected (high confidence). For stabilised global warming \r of 1.5oC, sea ice in September is likely to be present at end of century \r with an approximately 1% chance of individual ice-free years (Notz \r and Stroeve, 2016; Sanderson et al., 2017; Jahn, 2018; Sigmond \r et al., 2018); after 10 years of stabilised warming at a 2oC increase, \r more frequent occurrence of an ice-free summer Arctic is expected \r (around 10-35%) (Mahlstein and Knutti, 2012; Jahn et al., 2016; \r Notz and Stroeve, 2016). Model simulations show that a temporary \r temperature overshoot of a warming target has no lasting impact \r [...]"


id: fd3173003ba4bab711c17bae9bdbbff5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41895
content:
"There is low confidence in projections of Antarctic sea ice because \r there are multiple anthropogenic forcings (ozone and greenhouse \r gases) and complicated processes involving the ocean, atmosphere, \r and adjacent ice sheet (Section 3.2.1.1.). Model deficiencies are related \r to stratification (Sallee et al., 2013a), freshening by ice shelf melt \r water (Bintanja et al., 2015), atmospheric processes including clouds \r (Schneider and Reusch, 2015; Hyder et al., 2018), and wind and ocean \r driven processes (Purich et al., 2016a; Purich et al., 2016b; Schroeter \r et al., 2017; Purich et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2018a). Uncertainty in sea \r ice projections reduces confidence in projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet \r surface mass balance because sea ice affects Antarctic temperature and \r precipitation trends (Bracegirdle et al., 2015), and impacts projected \r changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet (Bracegirdle et al., \r [...]"


id: 5104c514ba279fd9fb1e5dcb487a5fbb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11535
content:
"[...] 2018; England et al., 2018) with implications for the Southern Ocean \r overturning circulation (Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3)."


id: 62b9ef810423920f123decccee5f2635
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14662
content:
"Polynyas are projected to change in different ways depending on regional ice conditions and ice formation processes. Further reductions \r in sea ice are projected for Arctic shelf seas which have already lost ice in recent decades (Barnhart et al., 2015; Onarheim et al., 2018) \r so polynyas will cease to exist where seasonal sea ice disappears or evolve to become part of the marginal sea ice zone due to changes \r in ice dynamics (i.e., the North Water polynya and the Circumpolar Flaw Lead); new or enlarged polynyas could result in regions where \r thinner ice becomes more effectively advected offshore, or where marine terminating glaciers increase land ice fluxes to the marine \r system (medium confidence). The reduced survival rate of sea ice in the Transpolar Drift interrupts the transport of sediment-laden ice \r produced from Siberian shelf polynyas (Krumpen et al., 2019), with consequences for the associated biogeochemical matter and gas \r [...]"


id: 1dcb9f3160b2baed42cd5cebe86e2a7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2429
content:
"Projected changes to polynyas are important because the spring phytoplankton bloom starts early as the ocean is often well-ventilated \r and nutrient rich, so the entire biological range from phytoplankton to seabirds to marine mammals thrive in polynya waters (high \r confidence) (Stirling, 1997; Arrigo and van Dijken, 2004; Karnovsky et al., 2009). Secondary production and upper food web processes \r are typically adapted to the early availability of energy to the system with arrival of higher trophic species (Asselin et al., 2011). \r Because of the abundance of marine food resources including seals, whales and fish in and around polynyas, Arctic peoples have \r hunted regularly in these areas for thousands of years (Barber and Massom, 2007). Recent implementation of  Inuit-led marine \r management areas acknowledge the Inuit knowledge of polynyas, and recognise the potential for development of fisheries and \r [...]"


id: ad480bfcd669c10c6226c8b56c27d877
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27726
content:
"[...] other resources in polynya systems, provided these activities minimise harm on the environment and wildlife. The Inuit Circumpolar \r Council's Pikialasorsuaq Commission is an example of a proposal to develop an Inuit management area in the North Water Polynya \r (Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1)."


id: e98d79722b4d85ee8ec91fd93f26651c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38443
content:
"Antarctic coastal polynyas are biological hot-spots that support high rates of primary production (Ainley et al., 2015; Arrigo et al., \r 2015) due to a combination of both high light (Park et al., 2017) and high nutrient levels, especially iron (Gerringa et al., 2015). Basal \r ice shelf melt is the primary supplier of iron to coastal polynyas (Arrigo and van Dijken, 2015) although sea ice melt and intrusions \r of Circumpolar Deep Water are significant in the Ross Sea (McGillicuddy et al., 2015; Hatta et al., 2017). As ice shelves retreat, the \r polynyas created in their wake also increase local primary production: the new polynyas created after the collapse of the Larsen A and \r B ice shelves are as productive as other Antarctic shelf regions, likely increasing organic matter export and altering marine ecosystem \r evolution (Cape et al., 2013). The recent calving of Mertz Glacier Tongue in East Antarctica has altered sea ice and ocean stratification \r [...]"


id: 649f9096990ae47cc0823a6350943a79
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14984
content:
"[...] (Fogwill et al., 2016) such that polynyas there are now twice as productive (Shadwick et al., 2017). "


id: 62b385cc55c5229437fd839195e5d4a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14656
content:
"The Weddell Polynya is a large area of open water within the winter ice pack of the Weddell Sea close to the Maud Rise seamount\r (at approximately 65oS, 3oE), and has importance on a global scale for deep water ventilation. The polynya opens intermittently, and \r remained open from 1974 to 1976, with an area of 0.2-0.3 million km2\r  (Carsey, 1980). A similar polynya appeared in spring 2017, \r with a smaller area in 2016, but did not occur in 2018 (Campbell et al., 2019; Jena et al., 2019). Based on these recent events, there is \r medium confidence in the drivers of Weddell Polynya formation; it forms over deep water and appears connected to sea ice divergence \r created by ocean eddies (Holland, 2001) or strong winds (Campbell et al., 2019; Francis et al., 2019; Wilson et al., 2019). Around Maud \r Rise, the ocean is weakly stratified, and winter sea ice formation causes brine release and the related deepening mixed layer brings \r [...]"


id: 8dc8e8eb4e401600cb3f0f7f984fa8f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22139
content:
"[...] warmer deep waters towards the surface. This causes heat loss to the atmosphere above 200 W m-\r 2 (Campbell et al., 2019). These \r polynya formation processes cause deep ocean convection that releases heat from the deep ocean to the atmosphere (Smedsrud, \r 2005), and may contribute to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon (Bernardello et al., 2014)."


id: fadb69b44d684cf291b6a3e172c176bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41515
content:
"Under RCP8.5, melting ice causes the greatest declining rate of pH \r and CaCO3 saturation state in the Central Arctic, Canadian Arctic \r Archipelago and Baffin Bay (Popova et al., 2014). In the Canada \r Basin, projections using RCP8.5 show reductions in mean surface \r pH from approximately  8.1 in 1986-2005 to  7.7 by 2066-2085, \r and aragonite saturation from  1.52-0.74 during the same period \r (Steiner et al., 2014). A  shoaling of the aragonite saturation \r horizon of approximately 1200  m, a  large increase in area extent \r of undersaturated surface waters, and a pH change in the surface \r water of -0.19 are projected using the SRES A1B scenario (broadly \r comparable to RCP6.0) in the Nordic Sea from 2000 to 2065 (Skogen \r et al., 2014). Under the same scenario, aragonite undersaturation is \r projected to occur in the bottom waters over the entire Kara Sea shelf \r by 2040 and over most of the Barents and East Greenland shelves \r [...]"


id: cb5a2150c7c85bf060f24a07c51c308a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33107
content:
"CMIP5 projections (Figure 3.3) indicate that observed Southern Ocean \r warming trends will continue under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, \r leading to 1oC-3oC warming by 2100 mostly in the upper ocean \r (Sallee et al., 2013a). Projections demonstrate a similar distribution of \r heat storage to historical observations, notably focused in deep pools \r north of the Subantarctic Front (e.g., Armour et al., 2016). Antarctic \r Bottom Water becomes coherently warmer by up to 0.3oC by 2100 \r across the model ensemble under RCP8.5 (Heuze et al., 2015). The \r upper ocean also becomes considerably fresher (salinity decrease of \r approximately 0.1) (Sallee et al., 2013b) with an overall increase in \r stratification and a shallowing of mixed layers (Sallee et al., 2013a). \r Although the sign of model changes appear mostly robust, there is \r low confidence in magnitude due to the large inter-model spread \r in projections and significant warm biases in historical water mass \r [...]"


id: 7f040396f60854b1f1dff2ed394d2a74
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19499
content:
"[...] properties (Sallee et al., 2013a) and sea surface temperature, which \r may be up to 3oC too high in the historical runs (Wang et al., 2014). "


id: e1829bf6f1b697b97a18e2a90e727968
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36944
content:
"Alongside the mean state changes, Southern Ocean aragonite \r saturation is also affected by the seasonal cycle of carbonate as \r well as by the impact of reduced buffering capacity (SM3.2.4) on the \r seasonal cycle of CO2 (Sasse et al., 2015; McNeil and Sasse, 2016). \r This leads to an amplification of the seasonal variability of pCO2\r (Hauck and Volker, 2015; McNeil and Sasse, 2016; Landschutzer et al., \r 2018) and the hydrogen ion concentration that accelerates the onset \r of hypercapnia (i.e., high pCO2 levels; pCO2 > 1000 matm) to nearly \r 2 decades (~2085) ahead of anthropogenic CO2 forcing (McNeil and \r Sasse, 2016). The seasonal cycles of pH and aragonite saturation \r will be attenuated (Kwiatkowski and Orr, 2018) (Section  5.2.2.3), \r however when the mean state changes are combined with the \r changes in seasonality, the onset of undersaturation is brought \r forward by 10-20 years (Table SM3.5). Model projections remain \r [...]"


id: 5d0fbd7ba86c8a2779053dfbca03183f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13640
content:
"[...] uncertain and affected by the resolution of local ocean physics, which \r leads to overall medium confidence in the timing of undersaturation \r and hypercapnia."


id: 8d9e0e21d812cfd6f41459be14b46e3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22109
content:
"There is evidence that the combination of loss of sea ice, freshening, \r and regional stratification (Sections 3.2.1.1 and 3.2.1.2) has affected \r the timing, distribution and production of primary producers (Moore \r et al., 2018) (high confidence). Satellite data show that the decline \r in ice cover has resulted in a >30% increase in annual net primary \r production (NPP) in ice-free Arctic waters since 1998 (Arrigo and \r van Dijken, 2011; Belanger et al., 2013; Arrigo and van Dijken, 2015; \r Kahru et al., 2016), a  phenomenon corroborated by both in situ\r data (Stanley et al., 2015) and modelling studies (Vancoppenolle \r et al., 2013; Jin et al., 2016). Ice loss has also resulted in earlier \r phytoplankton blooms (Kahru et al., 2011) with blooms being \r dominated by larger-celled phytoplankton (Fujiwara et al., 2016). \r The longer open water season in the Arctic has also increased the \r incidence of autumn blooms, a  phenomenon previously rarely \r [...]"


id: 45b48c964acfcb8c99bfacfdaefc82a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9479
content:
"Thinner Arctic sea ice cover has led to the appearance of intense \r phytoplankton blooms that develop beneath first-year sea ice \r (medium confidence). Blooms of this size (1000s of km2\r ) and \r intensity (peaks of approximately 30 mg Chla-m-3) were previously \r thought to be restricted to the marginal ice zone and the open ocean \r where ample light reaches the surface ocean for rapid phytoplankton \r growth (Arrigo et al., 2012). Evidence shows that these blooms \r can thrive beneath sea ice in areas of reduced thickness, increased \r coverage of melt ponds (Arrigo et al., 2014; Zhang et al., 2015; Jin \r et al., 2016; Horvat et al., 2017), first-year ridges at the snow-ice \r interface (Fernandez-Mendez et al., 2018), and a  large number of \r cracks (high lead fractions) in the ice (Assmy et al., 2017), although \r the latter has not changed significantly in the last three decades \r (Wang et al., 2016a). Local features including snow-free or thin \r [...]"


id: 3750c3b35d8966c56864b7ae79879ecb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6946
content:
"[...] snow, hummocks and ridges commonly found on multi-year ice also \r provide habitat for ice algae (Lange et al., 2017)."


id: c33a0d7f1995d742b394ca9951ac9cd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31622
content:
"The scope for adaptation of marine fish to a changing ocean conditions \r is uncertain, but knowledge is informed by previous biogeographic \r studies (Chernova, 2011; Lynghammar et al., 2013). The present \r niche partitioning between subarctic and Arctic pelagic fish species \r is expected to become more diffuse with potential negative impacts \r on cold adapted species such as polar cod (Laurel et al., 2017; Alabia \r et al., 2018; Logerwell et al., 2018) (low confidence). Winter ocean \r conditions in the high Arctic are projected to remain cold in most \r regions (Section 3.2.3.1), limiting the immigration of subarctic species \r that spawn in positive temperatures onto the high Arctic shelves \r (Landa et al., 2014). Projected increases in summer temperature may \r open gateways to subarctic pelagic foragers in summer, particularly \r in the inflow regions of the Kara and Chukchi Seas, and the shelf \r regions of east and west Greenland (Mueter et al., 2017; Joli et al., \r [...]"


id: 32adf8f0cb07ee6dc7b28cda9212b0ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6184
content:
"[...] 2018). For example, the pelagic capelin (Mallotus villosus) are capable \r of entering the CAO, but may be restricted in winter by availability \r of suitable spawning areas and lack of antifreeze proteins (Hop and \r Gjosaeter, 2013; Christiansen, 2017). "


id: dfd25798e239d76fe1291635c95cd604
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36622
content:
"Seabirds and marine mammals are mobile animals that respond to \r changes in the distribution of their preferred habitats and prey, by \r shifting their range, altering the timing or pathways for migration \r or prey shifting when this is feasible (Post et al., 2013; Hamilton \r et al., 2019) (very high confidence). However, some species display \r strong site fidelity that can be maladaptive in a changing climate and \r Arctic endemic marine mammals (all of which are ice-affiliated for \r breeding) in general have little scope to move northward in response \r to warming (Kovacs et al., 2012; Hamilton et al., 2015). Changes in the \r location or availability of polar fronts, polynyas, tidal glacier fronts or \r ice edges have impacted where Arctic sea birds and marine mammals \r concentrate because of the influence these physical features have on \r productivity; traditionally these areas have been key foraging sites \r for top predators in the Arctic (deHart and Picco, 2015; Hamilton \r [...]"


id: 80396dbc40b3af59d2b06803b6a88d0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19691
content:
"Regional climate scenarios, derived from down-scaled global climate \r scenarios, have been used to drive environmentally linked fish \r population models (Hermann et al., 2016; Holsman et al., 2016; Ianelli \r et al., 2016; Hermann et al., 2019). Hermann et al. (2019) contrasted \r future production of copepods and euphausiids in the eastern \r Bering Sea under scenarios derived from projected downscaled \r high spatial and temporal resolution ocean habitats under RCP4.5 \r and RCP8.5. Consistent with AR5, these updated scenarios project \r future declines in the abundance of large copepods under RCP8.5, \r a  result that has been shown to negatively impact production of \r walleye pollock, Pacific cod (Gadus microcephalus) and arrowtooth \r flounder (Atheresthes stomias) (Sigler et al., 2017; Kimmel et al., \r 2018) (medium confidence). Hedger et al. (2013) predicts increases \r in Atlantic salmon abundance in northern Norway (river Alta \r [...]"


id: a5e74a7a6bf46a62406d78761905315f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26410
content:
"[...] around 70oN) with future warming (low confidence). Under end of \r century RCP8.5 projections, ocean acidification and higher ocean \r temperatures are expected to reduce production of Barents Sea cod \r (Stiasny et al., 2016; Koenigstein et al., 2018) (low confidence)."


id: 8d737a8786642f240e3fe4973530bd4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22071
content:
"Changes in the timing, distribution and thickness of sea ice and \r snow (Sections  3.2.1.1,  3.4.1.1) have been linked to phenological \r shifts, and changes in distribution, denning, foraging behaviour and \r survival rates of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) (Andersen et al., 2012; \r Hamilton et al., 2017; Escajeda et al., 2018) (high confidence). Less \r ice is also driving polar bears to travel over greater distances and \r swim more than previously both in offshore and in coastal areas, \r which can be particularly dangerous for young cubs (Durner et al., \r 2017; Pilfold et al., 2017; Lone et al., 2018). Cumulatively, changes \r in sea ice patterns are driving demographic changes in polar bears, \r including declines in some populations (Lunn et al., 2016; McCall \r et al., 2016), while others are stable or increasing (Voorhees et al., \r 2014; Aars et al., 2017). This is because protective management \r measures have been successful in allowing severely depleted \r [...]"


id: 729a0138447f55e5e80c6a978bd129d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17404
content:
"[...] populations to recover or because new food sources, such as carrion, \r are becoming available to polar bears in some regions (Galicia et al., \r 2016; Stapleton et al., 2016). Changes in the spatial distribution of \r polar bears and killer whales can have top-down effects on other \r marine mammal prey populations (Oigard et al., 2014; Breed et al., \r 2017; Smith et al., 2017a). "


id: 35935a92e026431aeff8ddcd060241ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6680
content:
"Changes in column-integrated phytoplankton biomass for the \r Southern Ocean are coupled with changes in the spatial extent of \r ice-free waters, suggesting little overall change in biomass per area \r at the circumpolar scale (Behrenfeld et al., 2016). Arrigo et al. (2008) \r also report no overall trend in remotely-sensed column-integrated \r primary production south of 50oS from 1998 to 2006. At a regional \r scale, local-scale forcings (e.g.,  retreating glaciers, topographically \r steered circulation and sea ice duration) and associated changes in \r stratification are key determinants of phytoplankton bloom dynamics \r at coastal stations on the West Antarctic Peninsula (Venables et al., \r 2013; Schofield et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018; Schofield et al., 2018) \r (medium confidence). For example, a  shallowing trend in mixed \r layer depth in the southern part of the Peninsula (as opposed to no \r trend in the north) associated with changes in sea ice duration over \r [...]"


id: cd0fa9b452c62566efb5457157bd3b23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33417
content:
"[...] a 24-year period (from 1993 to 2017) has been linked to enhanced \r phytoplankton productivity (Schofield et al., 2018). The phenology \r of Southern Ocean phytoplankton blooms in this region may also \r be shifting to earlier in the growth season (Arrigo et al., 2017a). \r However, the effect of climate change on Southern Ocean pelagic \r primary production is difficult to determine given that the length \r of time series data is insufficient (less than 30 years) to enable the \r climate change signature to be detected and attributed; and that, \r even when records are of sufficient length, data trends are often \r reported as being driven by climate change when they are due to \r a combination of climate change andvariability."


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vector_id: 39591
content:
"Marine ecosystem dynamics in the Antarctic region are dominated by \r the ACC and its frontal systems (Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3), \r subpolar gyres, polar seasonality, the annual advance and retreat of \r sea ice (Section  3.2.1.1) and the supply of limiting micronutrients \r for productivity (most commonly iron) (Section  5.2.2.5). Antarctic \r krill (Euphausia superba) play a  central role in Southern Ocean \r foodwebs as grazers and as prey items for fish, squid, marine \r mammals and seabirds (Schmidt and Atkinson, 2016; Trathan and \r Hill, 2016) (SM3.2.6). This is due in part to the high abundance and \r circumpolar distribution of Antarctic krill, although the abundance \r and importance of this species varies between different regions of \r the Southern Ocean (Larsen et al., 2014; Siegel, 2016; McCormack \r et al., 2017). Recent work has characterised the nature of habitat \r change for Southern Ocean biota at regional and circumpolar \r [...]"


id: dad6c588e8ee984b8418f3f446aee3a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35793
content:
"[...] scales (Constable et al., 2014; Gutt et al., 2015; Constable et al., \r 2016; Hunt et al., 2016; Gutt et al., 2018), and the direct responses \r of biota to these changes (Constable et al., 2014) (summarised in \r Figure  3.6). These findings indicate that overlapping changes in "


id: 75ceccd57f4f539f0c37bd51b2d1851e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17957
content:
"Previously reported declines in Antarctic krill abundance in the South \r Atlantic Sector (Atkinson et al., 2004) cited in WGII AR5 (Larsen et \r al., 2014) may not represent a  long-term, climate driven, regional\u0002scale decline (Fielding et al., 2014; Kinzey et al., 2015; Steinberg et \r al., 2015; Cox et al., 2018) (medium confidence) but could reflect \r a  sudden, discontinuous change following an episodic period of \r anomalous peak abundance for this species (Loeb and Santora, 2015) \r (low confidence). Recent analyses have not detected trends in long\u0002term krill abundance in the South Atlantic Sector in acoustic surveys \r (Fielding et al., 2014; Kinzey et al., 2015), net-based surveys (Steinberg \r et al., 2015) or reanalysis of historical data (Cox et al., 2018). \r Nevertheless, the spatial distribution and size composition of Antarctic \r krill may already have changed in association with change in the sea \r ice environment (Atkinson et al., 2019) (medium confidence) and may \r [...]"


id: 31f50e6d35231092b0556104687a64ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6042
content:
"[...] result in different regional trends in numerical krill abundance (Cox et \r al., 2018; Atkinson et al., 2019) (medium confidence). "


id: dcf00749a629463f44af20e13745d1a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36134
content:
"Carbon uptake and storage by Antarctic benthic communities is \r predicted to increase with sea ice losses, because across-shelf growth \r gains from longer algal blooms outweigh ice scour mortality in the \r shallows (Barnes, 2017). Bentho-pelagic coupling and vertical energy \r flux will also influence Southern Ocean ecosystem responses to climate \r change (Jansen et al., 2017). Benthic communities in shallow water \r habitats mostly consist of dark-adapted invertebrates and rely on sea \r ice to create low-light marine environments. Increases in the amount \r of light reaching the shallow seabed under climate change may \r result in ecological regime shifts, in which invertebrate-dominated \r communities are replaced by macroalgal beds (Clark et al., 2015; \r Clark et al., 2017) (low confidence) (Table 6.1). Griffiths et al. (2017a) \r modelled distribution changes for 963 benthic invertebrate species \r in the Southern Ocean under RCP8.5 for 2099. Their results suggest \r [...]"


id: 507257e7620e18b1a7aa32d7dd5046e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11432
content:
"[...] that 79% of Antarctica's endemic species will face a  reduction in \r suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction) over the \r current century. Predicted reductions in the number of species are \r most pronounced for the West Antarctic Peninsula and the Scotia Sea \r region (Griffiths et al., 2017a)."


id: dc0819f9d0df65a6a20b6b6c3bdb892b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35990
content:
"The distribution of Antarctic krill is expected to change under \r future climate change because of changes in the location of the \r optimum conditions for growth and recruitment (Melbourne-Thomas \r et al., 2016; Pinones and Fedorov, 2016; Meyer et al., 2017; Murphy \r et al., 2017; Klein et al., 2018). The optimum conditions for krill are \r predicted to move southwards, with the decreases most apparent \r in the areas with the most rapid warming (Hill et al., 2013; Pinones \r and Fedorov, 2016) (Section  3.2.1.2.1) (medium confidence). The \r greatest projected reductions in krill due to the effects of warming \r and ocean acidification are predicted for the southwest Atlantic/\r Weddell Sea region (Kawaguchi et al., 2013; Pinones and Fedorov, \r 2016) (low confidence), which is the area of highest current krill \r concentrations, contains important foraging grounds for krill \r predators, and is also the main area of operation of the krill fishery. \r [...]"


id: 3665422b344ceceb8e7c3713bf227ed2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6805
content:
"[...] Modelled effects of warming on krill growth in the Scotia Sea and \r northern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) region resulted in reductions in \r total krill biomass under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (Klein et al., 2018). \r Projections from a food web model for the West Antarctic Peninsula \r under simple scenarios for change in open water and sea ice\u0002associated primary production from 2010 to 2050 (6, 15, and 41% \r increases in phytoplankton production with equivalent percentage \r decreases in ice algal production) indicate a decline in krill biomass \r with contemporaneous increases in the biomass of gelatinous salps \r (Suprenand and Ainsworth, 2017)."


id: 7cd7e6e854977466316f4e46b8ad07aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19158
content:
"Trends of populations of Antarctic penguins affected by climate \r change include both increases for gentoo penguins, (Pygoscelis \r papua) (Lynch et al., 2013; Dunn et al., 2016; Hinke et al., 2017a), \r and decreases for Adelie (P. adeliae), chinstrap (P. antarctica), king \r (Aptenodytes patagonicus) and Emperor (A. forsteri) penguins \r (Trivelpiece et al., 2011; LaRue et al., 2013; Jenouvrier et al., 2014; \r Bost et al., 2015; Southwell et al., 2015; Younger et al., 2015; Cimino \r et al., 2016) (high confidence). Yet population shifts in Adelie \r penguins (Youngflesh et al., 2017) may have resulted from strong \r interannual environmental variability in good and bad years for prey \r and breeding habitat rather than climate change (low confidence). \r New evidence suggests that present Emperor penguin population \r estimates should be evaluated with caution based on the existence of \r breeding colonies yet to be discovered/confirmed (Ancel et al., 2017) \r [...]"


id: a5c256554a183de9b53b52d7f34ef663
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26387
content:
"[...] as well as studies that draw conclusions based on trend estimates \r from single colonies (Kooyman and Ponganis, 2017)."


id: 8c5e0bcc1b923d1b3554ac3949430d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21872
content:
"Myctophids and toothfish are important fish groups from both \r a food web (myctophids) and fishery (toothfish) perspective. Species \r distribution models for Electrona antarctica, a dominant myctophid \r species in the Southern Ocean, project habitat loss for this species \r under RCP4.5 (6.2 +- 6.0% loss) and RCP8.5 (13.1 +- 10.2% loss) by \r 2090, associated with increased sea surface temperature (Freer et al., \r 2018). There have been no observed effects of climate change on \r the two species of toothfish that are found in the Southern Ocean: \r Patagonian and Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides and D. \r mawsoni), but recruitment is inversely correlated with sea surface \r temperature for Patagonian toothfish at South Georgia (Belchier \r and Collins, 2008). Given differences in temperature tolerances \r for Patagonian toothfish (with a  wide temperature tolerance) and \r Antarctic toothfish (limited by a low tolerance for water temperatures \r [...]"


id: 2e42ddf1d0b7195ddd1f9d5cb352b951
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5409
content:
"[...] above 2oC), the latter may be faced with reduced habitat and \r potential competition with southward-moving Patagonian toothfish \r under climate change (Mintenbeck, 2017) (very low confidence)."


id: c7c885806cadc2cf63a559bba811b521
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32454
content:
"Since AR5, there has been an increasing body of evidence of \r climate-induced changes in populations of some Antarctic \r higher predators such as seabirds and marine mammals. These \r changes vary between different regions of the Southern Ocean \r and reflect differences in key drivers (Bost et al., 2009; Gutt et al., \r 2015; Constable et al., 2016; Hunt et al., 2016; Gutt et al., 2018), \r particularly sea ice extent and food availability (high confidence) \r across regions (Sections  3.2.1.1.1,  5.2.3.1,  5.2.3.2,  5.2.4). The \r predictability of foraging grounds and ice cover are associated with \r variations in climate (Dugger et al., 2014; Youngflesh et al., 2017; \r Abrahms et al., 2018) (Section 3.2.1.1) and are the main drivers of \r observed population changes of Southern Ocean higher predators \r (high confidence) (Descamps et al., 2015; Jenouvrier et al., 2015; \r Sydeman et al., 2015; Abadi et al., 2017; Bjorndal et al., 2017; \r [...]"


id: ca12638093adabced2f9e63571c3bb6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32881
content:
"[...] Fluhr et al., 2017; Hinke et al., 2017a; Hinke et al., 2017b; Pardo \r et al., 2017). The suitability of breeding habitats and the location of \r environmental features that facilitate the aggregation of prey are also \r influenced by climate change, and in turn influence the distribution \r in space and time of marine mammals and birds (Bost et al., 2015; \r Kavanaugh et al., 2015; Hindell et al., 2016; Santora et al., 2017) \r (medium confidence). Finally, biological parameters (reproductive "


id: aa86933137e71868927f3f4ef3c2476e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27223
content:
"Changes in local- and regional-scale oceanographic features \r (Section 3.2.1.2) together with bathymetry control prey aggregation \r and distribution, and affect the ecological responses and biological \r traits of higher predators (particularly marine mammals) in the \r Southern Ocean (Lyver et al., 2014; Bost et al., 2015; Jenouvrier et al., \r 2015; Whitehead et al., 2015; Cimino et al., 2016; Hinke et al., 2017a; \r Pardo et al., 2017) (medium confidence) and likely explain most of \r the observed population shifts (Kavanaugh et al., 2015; Hindell et al., \r 2016; Gurarie et al., 2017; Santora et al., 2017). Decadal climate \r cycles affect access to mesopelagic prey by southern elephant seals \r (Mirounga leonina) in the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean and \r breeding females are excluded from highly productive continental \r shelf waters in years of increased sea ice extent and duration (Hindell \r et al., 2016) (medium confidence). To date there is no unified global \r [...]"


id: a87d39362b56f9abf8861a5f604e5cd9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26849
content:
"[...] estimate of the abundance of Antarctic pack ice seal species (Ross \r seals (Ommatophoca rossi), crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga), "


id: 810dd043aefc2d84bf2ff4141b5ad27d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19840
content:
"This section assesses the impacts of ocean and sea ice changes on \r pelagic foodwebs and ecosystem structure. The ecological impacts of \r loss of ice shelves and retreat of coastal glaciers around Antarctica \r are assessed in Section 3.3.3.4. Recent syntheses of Southern Ocean \r ecosystem structure and function recognise the importance of at least \r two dominant energy pathways in pelagic foodwebs - a short trophic \r pathway transferring primary production to top predators via krill, and at \r least one other pathway that moves energy from smaller phytoplankton \r to top predators via copepods and small mesopelagic fishes  - and \r indicate that the relative importance of these pathways will change \r under climate change (Murphy et al., 2013; Constable et al., 2016; \r Constable et al., 2017; McCormack et al., 2017) (medium confidence). \r Using an ecosystem model, Klein et al. (2018) found that the effects \r of warming on krill growth off the AP and in the Scotia Sea translated \r [...]"


id: 3cb678c0d3fed66fd8c18b924814ac5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7863
content:
"[...] to increased risks of declines in krill predator populations, particularly \r penguins, under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The relative importance of \r different energy pathways in Southern Ocean foodwebs has important \r implications for resource management, in particular the management \r of krill and toothfish fisheries by the Commission for the Conservation \r of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) (Constable et al., 2016; \r Constable et al., 2017) (Sections 3.2.4.1.2, 3.5.3.2.2). "


id: a7cf60351ee06c69cc255e31c8b2c847
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26734
content:
"Population trends of migratory baleen whales have been associated \r with krill abundance in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the \r Southern Ocean which is reflected in increased reproductive success, \r body condition and energy allocation (milk availability and transfer) \r to calves (Braithwaite et al., 2015a; Braithwaite et al., 2015b; \r Seyboth et al., 2016) (high confidence). There have been predictions \r of negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale \r species, although the magnitude of impacts differs among populations \r (Tulloch et al., 2019) as for other higher predators (Section 5.2.3). \r Pacific blue (Tulloch et al., 2019) (Balaenoptera musculus), fin \r (B. physalus) and southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) are the \r most at risk but humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) are also \r at risk, as consequence of reduced prey and increasing interspecific \r competition. Importantly, climate-related risks for whale populations \r [...]"


id: 56c8e814dc0e46afea073e3ade81e178
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12518
content:
"[...] are a product of environmental conditions and connectivity between \r whale foraging grounds (Southern Ocean) and breeding grounds \r (lower latitudes) (Section 5.2.3.1)."


id: aa39e82bed07f1abb7c8ad216f753562
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27180
content:
"on primary productivity, particularly in the West Antarctic Peninsula \r region (Section 3.2.3.2.1) (medium confidence). At the circumpolar \r scale, primary production is projected to increase in regions south \r of 65oS over the period from now to 2100 under RCP8.5 (Leung \r et al., 2015) (low confidence). However, ocean acidification may have \r a detrimental effect on coastal phytoplankton communities around \r the Antarctic continent (Section  3.2.3.2.1) (medium confidence). \r Increased information is also available regarding climate-driven \r changes in Antarctic krill populations in the south Atlantic, including \r the observed southward shift in the spatial distribution of krill in this \r region (Atkinson et al., 2019) (medium confidence) but evidence of \r a  long-term trend in overall abundance in the region is equivocal \r (Section  3.2.3.2.1). Further habitat contraction for Antarctic krill is \r predicted in the future (medium confidence) (references detailed in \r [...]"


id: 4d23839b0788d91b5e2e3d7e4f5fdd9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10847
content:
"[...] Section  3.2.3.2.1). Under high emissions scenarios the majority of \r Antarctic seafloor species are projected to be negatively impacted \r by the end of the century (Griffiths et al., 2017a) (low confidence). \r Observed changes in the geography of ice-associated habitats \r (sea ice, ice shelves and polynyas) have both positive and negative \r effects on seabirds and marine mammals, and will interact with \r ice dependent changes in Antarctic krill populations to compound \r the impacts on krill dependent predators (Klein et al., 2018) \r (Sections 3.2.3.2.1, 3.2.3.2.4) (medium confidence)."


id: 807beccad97b668584911492ef22e7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19734
content:
"This section examines climate change impacts on Southern Ocean \r fisheries for Antarctic krill and finfish. Management of these fisheries \r by CCAMLR and responses to climate change are discussed in \r Section 3.5.2.1. The main Antarctic fisheries are for Antarctic krill, and \r for Antarctic and Patagonian toothfish; in 2016 the reported catches \r for these species were approximately 260 thousand tons for krill \r (CCAMLR, 2017b) and 11 thousand tons for Antarctic and Patagonian \r toothfish combined (CCAMLR, 2017a). The mean annual wholesale \r value of the Antarctic krill fishery was 69.5 USD million yr-1 for the \r period from 2011 to 2015, and 206.7 million USD yr-1 for toothfish \r fisheries (combined) over the same period (CCAMLR, 2016b). The \r fishery for Antarctic krill in the southern Atlantic Sector and the \r northern West Antarctic Peninsula (together the current area of \r focus for the fishery) has become increasingly concentrated in space \r [...]"


id: b3e736c2440bfae7b4c302fe6571779c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28893
content:
"[...] over recent decades, which has raised concern regarding localised \r impacts on krill predators (Hinke et al., 2017a). The krill fishery has \r also changed its peak season of operation. In the early years of the \r fishery, most krill were taken in summer and autumn, with lowest \r catches being taken in spring. In recent years the lowest catches have \r occurred over summer, catches have peaked in late autumn, and very \r little fishing activity has occurred in spring (Nicol and Foster, 2016). \r Some of these temporal and spatial shifts in the fishery over time have \r been attributed to reductions in winter sea ice extent in the region \r (Kawaguchi et al., 2009) (low confidence). Recent increases in the \r use of krill catch to produce krill oil (as a human health supplement) \r has also led to vessels concentrating on fishing in autumn and winter \r when krill are richest in lipids (Nicol and Foster, 2016). Available \r evidence regarding future changes to Antarctic krill populations "


id: 104ce98b5c3aa029c7be4d8968b39fd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 56
content:
"2015). In the Arctic, there are also risks and opportunities related \r to employment, health and well-being, and the commodification \r of culture (Stewart et al., 2013; Stewart et al., 2015). There is high \r confidence that biodiversity supported by ice-free areas, particularly \r those on the AP, are vulnerable to the introduction of terrestrial \r alien species via tourists and scientists (Chown et al., 2012; Huiskes \r et al., 2014; Hughes et al., 2015; Duffy et al., 2017; Lee et al., 2017a) \r (Box 3.3) as well as to the direct impacts of humans (Pertierra et al., \r 2017). The tourism sector relies on a set of regulations that apply to \r all types of maritime shipping, yet cruise ships intentionally travel off \r regular shipping corridors and serve a very different purpose than \r other vessel types, so there is a need for region-specific governance \r regimes, specialised infrastructure, and focused policy attention \r (Dawson et al., 2014; Pashkevich et al., 2015; Pizzolato et al., \r [...]"


id: 366962bf97de73351fdc55c01c27a986
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6810
content:
"[...] 2016; Johnston et al., 2017). Private pleasure craft remain almost \r completely unregulated, and will pose unique risks in the future \r (Johnston et al., 2017)."


id: 246b7fb514c4cc589b05b9e3755bd9df
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3600
content:
"Reductions in sea ice have facilitated an increase in marine and \r cruise tourism opportunities across the Arctic related to an increase \r in accessibility (Dawson et al., 2014; Johnston et al., 2017) (high \r confidence). While not exclusively 'polar', Alaska attracts the highest \r number of cruise passengers annually at just over one million; \r Svalbard attracts 40,000-50,000; Greenland 20,000-30,000; and \r Arctic Canada  3,500-5,000 (Johnston et al., 2017). Compared to \r a decade ago, there are more cruises on offer, ships travel further \r in a  single season, larger vessels with more passenger berths are \r in operation, more purpose-built polar cruise vessels are being \r constructed, and private pleasure craft are appearing in the Arctic \r more frequently (Lasserre and Tetu, 2015; Johnston et al., 2017; \r Dawson et al., 2018). In Antarctica, almost 37,000 (predominantly \r shipborne) tourists visited in 2016-2017, with 51,707 during \r [...]"


id: 326fa9b4647704d0fffdc331e65efea0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6128
content:
"[...] 2017-2018; there were 6700 tourists in 1992-1993 (the first year \r of record) (ATCM, 2018). Due to accessibility and convenience, these \r tourism operations are mostly based around the few ice-free areas of \r Antarctica, concentrated on the AP (Pertierra et al., 2017)."


id: 7b39a9e8ac2511e04eb6d339294a5eaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18877
content:
"There is high confidence that shipping activity during the Arctic \r summer increased over the past two decades in regions for which \r there is information, concurrent with reductions in Arctic sea ice \r extent and the shift to predominantly seasonal ice cover (Pizzolato \r et al., 2014; Eguiluz et al., 2016; Pizzolato et al., 2016). Long term \r datasets over the pan-Arctic are incomplete, but the distance \r travelled by ships in Arctic Canada nearly tripled between 1990 \r and 2015 (from ~365,000 to ~920,000 km) (Dawson et al., 2018). \r Other non-environmental factors which influence Arctic shipping \r are natural resource development, regional trade, geopolitics, \r commodity prices, global economic and social trends, national \r priorities, tourism demand, ship building technologies and insurance \r costs (Lasserre and Pelletier, 2011; Tetu et al., 2015; Johnston et al., \r 2017). Current impacts associated with the observed increase in \r [...]"


id: def9950eb0fa486f08d7fd3734eb3f19
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36485
content:
"[...] Arctic shipping include a higher rate of reported accidents per km \r travelled compared to southern waters (CCA, 2016), increases in \r vessel noise propagation (Halliday et al., 2017) and air pollution \r (Marelle et al., 2016). Disruptions to cultural and subsistence \r hunting activities from increased shipping (Huntington et al., 2015; \r Olsen et al., 2019) compound climate-related impacts to people \r (Sections 3.4.3.3.2, 3.4.3.3.3). "


id: 94dcaf4e3f75b1be77a47454623e7baf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23397
content:
"Future shipping impacts will be regionally diverse considering the \r unique geographies, sea ice dynamics, infrastructure and service \r availability and regulatory regimes that exist across different \r Arctic nations. Considerations include socioeconomic and political \r implications related to safety (marine and local accidents), security \r (trafficking, terrorism and local issues), and environmental and \r cultural sustainability (invasive species, release of biocides, \r chemicals and other waste, marine mammal strikes, fuel spills, air \r and underwater noise pollution and impacts to subsistence hunting) \r (Arctic Council, 2015a; Halliday et al., 2017; Hauser et al., 2018). \r Black carbon emissions from shipping activity within the Arctic are \r projected to increase (Arctic Council, 2017) and are more easily \r deposited at the surface in the region compared with emissions from \r lower latitudes (Sand et al., 2013). Commercial shipping mainly uses \r [...]"


id: 9529946defa1e996f37334ac38090b98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23446
content:
"[...] heavy fuel oil, with associated emissions of sulphur, nitrogen, metals, \r hydrocarbons, organic compounds, black carbon and fly ash to the \r atmosphere during combustion (Turner et al., 2017a). Mitigation \r approaches include banning heavy fuel oil as already implemented \r in Antarctica and the waters around Svalbard, and the use of new \r technology like scrubbers."


id: 32c15962350b014e18c3ebbb7663e5f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6198
content:
"Antarctic Ice Sheet mass changes are dominated by changes in \r snowfall and glacier flow. The WAIS and AP loss trends in recent \r decades are dominated by glacier flow acceleration (also known as \r dynamic thinning) (very high confidence) (Figure SM3.8). Dynamic \r thinning losses were -112 +- 12 Gt yr-1 for 2003-2013, largely from \r the Amundsen Sea Embayment (Figure SM3.8) (Martin-Espanol \r et al., 2016), which contributed -102 +- 10 Gt yr-1 from 2003 to 2011 \r (Sutterley et al., 2014). Total Amundsen Sea Embayment ice discharge \r increased by 77% since the 1970s (Mouginot et al., 2014), primarily \r from acceleration of Pine Island Glacier that began around 1945, Smith, \r Pope and Kohler glaciers around 1980, and Thwaites Glacier around \r 2000 (Mouginot et al., 2014; Konrad et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2017c). \r Dynamic thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment and western AP \r accounted for 88% of the -36 +- 15 Gt yr-1 increase in Antarctic Ice \r [...]"


id: b06a8eab7184a3a72aa8ab2de4f2df71
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28274
content:
"[...] Sheet mass loss from 2008 to 2015 (Gardner et al., 2018). Glacier \r acceleration of up to 25% also affected the Getz Ice Shelf margin from \r 2007 to 2014 (Chuter et al., 2017)."


id: 51dc010b2cecde505f3cf8f93b60adce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11689
content:
"The GIS was close to balance in the early years of the 1990s (Hanna \r et al., 2013; Khan et al., 2015), the interior above 2000 m altitude \r gained mass from 1961 to 1990 (Colgan et al., 2015) and both \r coastal and ice sheet sites experienced an increasing precipitation \r trend from 1890 to 2012 and 1890 to 2000 respectively (Mernild \r et al., 2015), but since the early 1990s multiple observations and \r modelling studies show strong warming and an increase in runoff \r (very high confidence). High-altitude GIS sites NEEM and Summit \r warmed by, respectively, 2.7oC +- 0.33oC over the past 30 years (Orsi \r et al., 2017) and by 2.7oC +- 0.3oC from 1982 to 2011 (McGrath et al., \r 2013), while satellite thermometry showed statistically significant \r widespread surface warming over northern GIS from 2000 to 2012 \r (Hall et al., 2013). The post-1990s period experienced the warmest \r GIS near-surface summer air temperatures of 1840-2010 (+1.1@C) \r [...]"


id: c0239443f1fbcdb0159c8594c5071398
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31095
content:
"[...] (statistically highly significant) (Box, 2013), and ice core analysis \r found the 2000-2010 decade to be the warmest for around 2000 \r years (Vinther et al., 2009; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2012), and \r possibly around 7000 years (Lecavalier et al., 2017). This significant \r summer warming since the early 1990s increased GIS melt event \r duration (Mernild et al., 2017) and intensity to levels exceptional \r over at least 350 years (Trusel et al., 2018), and melt frequency to \r levels unprecedented for at least 470 years (Graeter et al., 2018). GIS \r melt intensity for 1994-2013 was two to fivefold the pre-industrial \r intensity (medium confidence) (Trusel et al., 2018). In response, GIS \r meltwater production and runoff increased (Hanna et al., 2012; Box, \r 2013; Fettweis et al., 2013; Tedstone et al., 2015; van den Broeke \r et al., 2016; Fettweis et al., 2017), resulting in 1994-2013 runoff \r being 33% higher the 20th century mean and 50% higher than the \r [...]"


id: 2814870e3c38fb72eb4b5656f4f09bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4250
content:
"Mass balance contributions from ice sheet basal melting were not \r described in AR5 (IPCC, 2013) and the sensitivity of the AIS subglacial \r hydrological system to climate change is poorly understood. Around \r half of the AIS bed melts (Siegert et al., 2017), producing ~65 Gt yr-1\r of water (Pattyn, 2010) (low confidence), some of which refreezes (Bell, \r 2008) and some accumulates in subglacial lakes with a total volume of \r 10s of 1000s of km3\r  (Popov and Masolov, 2007; Lipenkov et al., 2016; \r Siegert, 2017). This system contributes fresh water and nutrients to the \r ocean (Section 3.3.3.3) (Fricker et al., 2007; Siegert et al., 2007; Carter \r and Fricker, 2012; Horgan et al., 2013; Le Brocq, 2013; Flament et al., \r 2014; Siegert et al., 2016), and lubricates glacier sliding (e.g., Dow et al., \r 2018b). Changes in the ice sheet thickness can redistribute subglacial \r water, affecting drainage pathways and ice flow (Fricker et al., 2016), \r [...]"


id: 5747139b6674d6d4228e983e7f3e6891
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12610
content:
"Only around half of the 1960-2014 surface melt ran off, most of the \r rest being retained in firn and snow (Steger et al., 2017), particularly \r in recently observed firn aquifers in south and west Greenland \r (Humphrey et al., 2012; Forster et al., 2013; Munneke et al., 2014; \r Poinar et al., 2017) that cover up to 5% of GIS (Miege et al., 2016; \r Steger et al., 2017) and stored around one fifth of the meltwater \r increase since the late 1990s (Noel et al., 2017) (medium confidence). \r While potential aquifer storage is equivalent to about a quarter of \r annual GIS melt production (Koenig et al., 2014; van den Broeke et al., \r 2016) and aquifers have spread to higher altitudes (Steger et al., 2017), \r their potential to buffer runoff has been reduced by firn densification \r (Polashenski et al., 2014), diversion of water to the bed via crevasses \r (Poinar et al., 2017), and the formation of ice layers that prevent \r drainage and promote surface ponding on the firn (Charalampidis \r [...]"


id: e8c5b8d1f5e333f486d7b32985d05056
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38303
content:
"[...] et al., 2016) (high confidence). Such ponding lowers the firn albedo, \r promoting further melting (high confidence) (e.g.,  Charalampidis \r et al., 2015), but the extent of bare ice is a fivefold stronger control \r on melt (Ryan et al., 2019). Bare ice produced ~78% of runoff from \r 1960 to 2014, and its extent is expected to increase non-linearly as \r snow cover retreats to higher, flatter areas of ice sheet (Steger et al., \r 2017). This extent is not well reproduced in climate models, however, \r with biases of -6% to 13% (Ryan et al., 2019)."


id: 8c8bc9f5267e81f85445fb343c7ad067
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21908
content:
"The remaining ~40% of non-SMB GIS mass loss from 1991 to 2015 \r has resulted from increased ice discharge due to dynamic thinning \r (high confidence) (Enderlin et al., 2014; van den Broeke et al., 2016; \r King et al., 2018) (Figure 3.7). From 2000 to 2016, dynamic thinning of \r 89% of GIS outlet glaciers accounted for -682 +- 31 Gt mass change, \r of which 92% came from the northwest and southeast GIS (King \r et al., 2018). Half came from only four glaciers (Jakobshavn Isbrae, \r Kangerdlugssuaq, Koge Bugt, and Ikertivaq South) (Enderlin et al., \r 2014). Glacier thinning has decreased glacier discharge, however, \r reducing the dynamic contribution to GIS mass loss (e.g., from 58% \r from 2000 to 2005 to 32% between 2009 and 2012; Enderlin et al., \r 2014). Furthermore, there is now high confidence that for most of \r the GIS, increased surface melt has not led to sustained increases \r in glacier flux on annual timescales because subglacial drainage \r [...]"


id: 7ef81e0e18cbbbfe4de57f77f1c689e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19491
content:
"[...] networks have evolved to drain away the additional water inputs \r (e.g., Sole et al., 2013; Tedstone et al., 2015; Stevens et al., 2016; \r Nienow et al., 2017; King et al.,2018)."


id: a7175b800f63f0845bf57f96cb9efdbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26611
content:
"In Greenland, associations between atmospheric pressure indices \r such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature, \r insolation and snowfall indicate with high confidence that, as in \r Antarctica, variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation is an \r important driver of SMB changes (Fettweis et al., 2013; Tedesco et al., \r 2013; Ding et al., 2014; Tedesco et al., 2016b; Ding et al., 2017; Hofer \r et al., 2017). A post-1990s decrease in summer NAO reflects increased \r anticyclonic weather (e.g., Tedesco et al., 2013; Hanna et al., 2015) \r that advected warm air over the GIS, explaining ~70% of summer \r surface warming from 2003 to 2013 (Fettweis et al., 2013; Tedesco \r et al., 2013; Mioduszewski et al., 2016), and reduced the cloud cover, \r increasing shortwave insolation (Tedesco et al., 2013) that, combined \r with albedo feedbacks (Box et al., 2012; Charalampidis et al., 2015; \r Tedesco et al., 2016a; Stibal et al., 2017; Ryan et al., 2018) (high \r [...]"


id: 29c14946b2e95c65e16be3e19b205c5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4571
content:
"[...] confidence), explains most of the post-1990s melt increase (Hofer \r et al., 2017). These drivers culminated in July 2012 in exceptional \r warmth and surface melt up to the ice sheet summit (Nghiem et al., \r 2012; Tedesco et al., 2013; Hanna et al., 2014; Hanna et al., 2016; \r McLeod and Mote, 2016)."


id: e33c3675b75c52c8dd0b261bfe183c1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37275
content:
"There is medium agreement but limited evidence of anthropogenic \r forcing of AIS mass balance through both SMB and glacier dynamics \r (low confidence). Partitioning between natural and human drivers of \r atmospheric and ocean circulation changes remains very uncertain. \r Partitioning is challenging because, along with the effects of \r greenhouse gas increases and stratospheric ozone depletion (Waugh \r et al., 2015; England et al., 2016; Li et al., 2016a), atmospheric and \r ocean variability in the areas of greatest AIS mass change are affected \r by a complex chain of processes (e.g., Fyke et al., 2018; Zhang et al., \r 2018a) that exhibit considerable natural variability and have multiple \r interacting links to sea surface conditions in the Pacific (Schneider \r et al., 2015; England et al., 2016; Raphael et al., 2016; Clem et al., \r 2017; Steig et al., 2017; Paolo et al., 2018) and Atlantic (Li et al., \r 2014), with additional local feedbacks (e.g., Stammerjohn et al., \r [...]"


id: 10d3b993b9698dd60c2548a7e55eb821
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 147
content:
"Little information is available on Holocene and historic changes \r in glaciers in Antarctica (separate from the ice sheet), and on \r sub-Antarctic islands (Hodgson et al., 2014). Mass changes of glaciers \r in these regions between 2006 and 2015 (-90 +- 860 Gt yr-1) have low \r confidence as they are based on a single data compilation with large \r uncertainties in the Antarctic region (Zemp et al., 2019) (Figure 3.8). \r Limited evidence with high agreement from individual glaciers \r suggests that regional variability in glacier mass changes may be \r linked to changes in the large-scale Southern Hemisphere atmospheric \r circulation (Section 3.3.1.5.2). On islands adjacent to the AP, glaciers \r experienced retreat and mass loss during the mid to late 20th century, \r but since around 2009 there has been a reduction in mass loss rate \r or a  return to slightly positive balance (Navarro et al., 2017; Oliva \r et al., 2017). Reduced mass loss has been linked to increased winter \r [...]"


id: fc1f546b1c80c685b33bb5703714a8ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41723
content:
"[...] snow accumulation and decreased summer melt at these locations, \r associated with recent deepening of the circumpolar pressure trough \r (Oliva et al., 2017). Conversely, on the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands, \r increased glacier mass loss (Verfaillie et al., 2015) may be due to \r reduced snow accumulation rather than increased air temperature as \r a result of southward migration of storm tracks (Favier et al., 2016). "


id: e77774e0ab2cb220b0631afa829ccaff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38024
content:
"Freshwater injected from the AIS affect water mass circulation and \r transformation, though sea ice dominates upper ocean properties \r away from the Antarctic ice shelves (Abernathey et al., 2016; Haumann \r et al., 2016). Over the ice shelf regions, where dense waters sink and \r flood the global ocean abyss, the role of glacial freshwater input is \r clearer. From 1980 to 2012, the salinity of Antarctic Bottom Water \r reduced by an amount equivalent to 73 +- 26 Gt y-1 of freshwater \r added, around half the estimated increase in freshwater input by \r Antarctic glacial discharge up to that time (Purkey and Johnson, \r 2013). In some places, notably the Indian-Australian sector, Antarctic \r Bottom Water freshening may be accelerating (Menezes et al., 2017). \r There is medium confidence in an overall freshening trend and low \r confidence that this is accelerating, given the sparsity of information\r and significant interannual variability in Antarctic Bottom Water \r [...]"


id: b25d81ece53d48a660a7dde02b1a9ddd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28617
content:
"For the Southern Ocean, there is limited evidence for stratification \r changes in the post-AR5 period, and low confidence in how \r stratification changes are affecting sea ice and basal ice shelf melt. \r An increase in stratification caused by release of freshwater from the \r AIS was invoked as a mechanism to suppress vertical heat flux and \r permit an increase in sea ice extent (Bintanja et al., 2013; Bronselaer \r et al., 2018; Purich et al., 2018), though some studies conclude that \r glacial freshwater input is insufficient to cause a significant sea ice \r expansion (Swart and Fyfe, 2013; Pauling et al., 2017) (Section 3.2.1.1). \r In contrast, where warm water intrusions drive melting within ice \r shelf cavities, a  significant entrained heat flux to the surface can \r exist and increase stratification and potentially reduce sea ice extent \r (Jourdain et al., 2017; Merino et al., 2018). It has been argued that \r freshening from glacial melt can enhance basal melting of ice shelves \r [...]"


id: 5dc6e8b06af4f93a6de040a260b00ccf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13789
content:
"[...] by reducing dense water production and modulating oceanic heat \r flow into ice shelf cavities (Silvano et al., 2018)."


id: 6d6004f760677deb261a31bee156d669
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16517
content:
"For Antarctica, there is high agreement based on medium evidence\r that ice shelf retreat or collapse is leading to new marine habitats \r and to biological colonisation (Gutt et al., 2011; Fillinger et al., 2013; \r Trathan et al., 2013; Hauquier et al., 2016; Ingels et al., 2018). The loss \r of ice shelves and retreat of coastal glaciers around the AP in the last \r 50 years has exposed at least 2.4 x 104\r  km2 of new open water. These \r newly-revealed habitats have allowed new phytoplankton blooms \r to be produced resulting in new marine zooplankton and seabed \r communities (Gutt et al., 2011; Fillinger et al., 2013; Trathan et al., \r 2013; Hauquier et al., 2016) (Section 3.2.3.2.1), and have resulted \r in enhanced carbon uptake by coastal marine ecosystems (medium \r confidence), although quantitative estimates of biological carbon \r uptake are highly variable (Trathan et al., 2013; Barnes et al., 2018). \r Newly available habitat on coastlines may also provide breeding \r [...]"


id: 28925b1cd6da257e3d698f39aadeb9f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4348
content:
"[...] or haul out sites for land-based predators such as penguins and \r seals (Trathan et al., 2013) (low confidence). Fjords that have been \r studied in the subpolar western AP are hotspots of abundance and \r biodiversity of benthic macro-organisms (Grange and Smith, 2013) \r and there is evidence that glacier retreat in these environments can \r impact the structure and function of benthic communities (Moon \r et al., 2015; Sahade et al., 2015) (low confidence)."


id: 497b69b6728081574361601789641d12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10153
content:
"For Greenland and Svalbard, there is limited evidence with high \r agreement that the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers will alter \r food supply to higher trophic levels of marine food webs (Meire et al., \r 2017; Milner et al., 2017). The consequences of changes in glacial \r systems on marine ecosystems are often mediated via the fjordic \r environments that fringe the edge of the ice sheets, for example \r changing physical-chemical conditions have affected the benthic \r ecosystems of Arctic fjords (Bourgeois et al., 2016). The amplification \r of nutrient fluxes caused by enhanced upwelling at calving fronts \r (Meire et al., 2017), combined with high carbon/nutrient burial and \r recycling rates (Wehrmann et al., 2013; Smith et al., 2015), plays \r an important role in sustaining high productivity of the Arctic fjord \r ecosystems of Greenland and Svalbard (Lydersen et al., 2014). Glacier \r retreat, causing glaciers to shift from being marine-terminating to \r [...]"


id: c4bb2eccba9567eff7c6f54a7f3dd7c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31928
content:
"[...] land-terminating, can reduce the productivity in coastal areas \r off Greenland with potentially large ecological implications, also \r negatively affecting production of commercially harvested fish (Meire \r et al., 2017). There is also evidence that marine-terminating glaciers \r are important feeding areas for marine mammals and seabirds at \r Greenland (Laidre et al., 2016) and Svalbard (Lydersen et al., 2014)."


id: 2ae2d335518908d5c83bb7cde62f9764
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4780
content:
"multiple datasets based on the methodology of (Mudryk et al., \r 2017) (Figure 3.10) (high confidence). The loss of spring snow extent \r is reflected in shorter snow cover duration estimated from surface \r observations (Bulygina et al., 2011; Brown et al., 2017), satellite \r data (Wang et al., 2013; Estilow et al., 2015; Anttila et al., 2018), and \r model-based analyses (Liston and Hiemstra, 2011) (high confidence). \r These trends range between -0.7 and -3.9 days per decade \r depending on region and time period, but all spring snow cover \r duration trends from all datasets are negative (Brown et al., 2017). \r These same multi-source datasets also identify reductions in autumn \r snow extent and duration (-0.6 to -1.4 days per decade; summarized \r in Brown et al., 2017) (high confidence). There is low confidence in \r positive October and November snow cover extent trends apparent \r in a single dataset (Hernandez-Henriquez et al., 2015) because they \r [...]"


id: 2f7bc3b597e8d50878a22d702f5f5a73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5615
content:
"[...] are not replicated in other surface, satellite and model datasets \r (Brown and Derksen, 2013; Mudryk et al., 2017)."


id: 53de987d925a532085349ca07cdbab66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12029
content:
"Record high temperatures at ~10-20 m  depth in the permafrost \r (near or below the depths affected by intra-annual fluctuation in \r temperature) have been documented at many long-term monitoring \r sites in the Northern Hemisphere circumpolar permafrost region \r (AMAP, 2017d) (Figure  3.10) (very high confidence). At some \r locations, the temperature is 2oC-3oC higher than 30 years ago. \r During the decade between 2007 and 2016, the rate of increase in \r permafrost temperatures was 0.39oC +- 0.15oC for colder continuous \r zone permafrost monitoring sites,  0.20oC +-  0.10oC for warmer \r discontinuous zone permafrost, giving a  global average of  0.29 \r +- 0.12oC across all polar and mountain permafrost (Biskaborn et al., \r 2019). Relatively smaller increases in permafrost temperature in \r warmer sites indicate that permafrost is thawing with heat absorbed \r by the ice-to-water phase change, and as a result, the active layer may \r [...]"


id: 7501c4ae673449d049397c91fb966278
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17822
content:
"[...] be increasing in thickness. In contrast to temperature, there is only \r medium confidence that active layer thickness across the region has \r increased. This confidence level is because decadal trends vary across \r regions and sites (Shiklomanov et al., 2012) and because mechanical \r probing of the active layer can underestimate the degradation \r of permafrost in some cases because the surface subsides when \r ground ice melts and drains (Mekonnen et al., 2016; AMAP, 2017d; \r Streletskiy et al., 2017). Permafrost in the Southern Hemisphere \r polar region occurs in ice-free exposed areas (Bockheim et al., \r 2013), 0.18% of the total land area of Antarctica (Burton-Johnson \r et al., 2016). This area is three orders of magnitude smaller than \r the 13-18 x 106\r  km2 area underlain by permafrost in the Northern \r Hemisphere terrestrial permafrost region (Gruber, 2012). Antarctic \r permafrost temperatures are generally colder (Noetzli et al., 2017) \r [...]"


id: bc269fba783d171367d7a43db27ccffa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30342
content:
"There is high confidence that darkening of snow through the deposition \r of black carbon and other light absorbing particles enhances snow \r melt (Bullard et al., 2016; Skiles et al., 2018; Boy et al., 2019). The \r global direct radiative forcing for black carbon in seasonal snow and \r over sea ice is estimated to be 0.04 W m-2, but the effective forcing \r can be up to threefold greater at regional scales due to the enhanced \r albedo feedback triggered by the initial darkening (Bond et al., 2013). \r Lawrence et al. (2011) estimate the present-day radiative effect of \r black carbon and dust in land-based snow to be 0.083 W m-2, only \r marginally greater than the simulated 1850 effect (0.075 W  m-2) \r due to offsetting effects from increased black carbon emissions and \r reductions in dust darkening (medium confidence). Kylling et al. \r (2018) estimate a  surface radiative effect of  0.292 W  m-2 caused \r by dust deposition (largely transported from Asia) to Arctic snow, \r [...]"


id: f70970115890004c59c3401725fb2752
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40833
content:
"[...] approximately half of the black carbon central scenario estimate \r of Flanner et al. (2007). The forcing from brown carbon deposited \r in snow (associated with both combustion and secondary organic \r carbon) is estimated to be 0.09-0.25 W m-2, with the range due to \r assumptions of particle absorptivity (Lin et al., 2014) (low confidence)."


id: 8c69d4fbb6566b4bd2c160f545e581a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21884
content:
"Permafrost thaw and loss of ground ice causes the land surface \r to subside and collapse into the volume previously occupied by \r ice, resulting in disturbance to overlying ecosystems and human \r infrastructure (Kanevskiy et al., 2013; Raynolds et al., 2014). Excess \r ice in permafrost is typical, varying for example from 40% of total \r volume in some sands up to 80-90% of total volume in fine-grained \r soil/sediments (Kanevskiy et al., 2013). Ice rich permafrost areas \r where impacts of thaw could be greatest include the Yedoma deposits \r in Siberia, Alaska, and the Yukon in Canada, with ice divided between \r massive wedges interspersed with frozen soil/sediment containing \r pore ice and smaller ice features (Schirrmeister et al., 2011; Strauss \r et al., 2017). Other areas including, for example, Northwestern Canada, \r the Canadian Archipelago, the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas of West \r Siberia, and smaller portions of Eastern Siberia and Alaska contain \r [...]"


id: 1b2addcec0331800b2a0df0d8d162a3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1970
content:
"et al., 2009; Kelly et al., 2013; Hanes et al., 2019). Recent climate \r warming has been linked to increased wildfire activity in the boreal \r forest regions in Alaska and western Canada where this has been \r studied (Gillett, 2004; Veraverbeke et al., 2017). Based on satellite \r imagery, an estimated 80,000 km2\r  of boreal area was burned \r globally per year from 1997 to 2011 (van der Werf et al., 2010; \r Giglio et al., 2013). Extreme fire years in northwest Canada during \r 2014 and Alaska during 2015 doubled the long-term (1997-2011) \r average area burned annually in this region (Canadian Forest Service, \r 2017), surpassing Eurasia to contribute 60% of the global boreal \r area burned (van der Werf et al., 2010; Randerson et al., 2012; Giglio \r et al., 2013). These extreme North American fire years were balanced \r by lower-than-average area burned in Eurasian forests, resulting in \r a 5% overall increase in global boreal area burned. The annual area \r [...]"


id: 95251e1e6816a61e0cabb28266af321d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23445
content:
"[...] burned in Arctic tundra is generally small compared to the forested \r boreal biome. In Alaska - the only region where estimates of burned \r area exist for both boreal forest and tundra vegetation types - tundra \r burning averaged approximately 270 km2\r  yr-1 during the last half \r century (French et al., 2015), accounting for 7% of the average annual \r area burned throughout the state (Pastick et al., 2017). There is high \r confidence that changes in the fire regime are degrading permafrost \r faster than had occurred over the historic successional cycle (Turetsky \r et al., 2011; Rupp et al., 2016; Pastick et al., 2017), and that the \r effect of this driver of permafrost change is under-represented in the \r permafrost temperature observation network."


id: f58baaa5b6843d802cf02185758af16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40564
content:
"The current inventory has also highlighted additional carbon pools \r that are likely to be present but are so poorly quantified (low \r confidence) that they cannot yet be added into the number reported \r above. There are deep terrestrial soil/sediment deposits outside of the \r Yedoma region that may contain about 400 Pg C (Schuur et al., 2015). \r An additional pool is organic carbon remaining in permafrost but that \r is now submerged on shallow Arctic sea shelves that were formerly \r exposed as terrestrial ecosystems during the Last Glacial Maximum \r ~20,000 years ago (Walter et al., 2007). This permafrost is degrading \r slowly due to seawater intrusion, and it is not clear what amounts \r of permafrost and organic carbon still remain in the sediment versus \r what has already been converted to greenhouse gases. A  recent \r synthesis of permafrost extent for the Beaufort Sea shelf showed \r that most remaining subsea permafrost in that region exists near \r [...]"


id: 3c1c7c8cc4ef584c23e86d17234ab822
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7767
content:
"[...] shore with much reduced area (high confidence) as compared to \r original subsea permafrost maps that outlined the entire 3 x 106\r  km2\r shelf area (<120 m below sea level depth) that was formerly exposed \r as land (Ruppel et al., 2016). These observations are supported by \r similar studies in the Siberian Arctic Seas (Portnov et al., 2013), and \r by modelling that suggests that subsea permafrost would be thawed \r many meters below the seabed under current submerged conditions \r (Anisimov et al., 2012; AMAP, 2017d; Angelopoulos et al., 2019)."


id: 7be897cd423e948077edeb7a90d59faf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19010
content:
"Abrupt permafrost thaw occurs when changing environmental and \r ecological conditions interact with geomorphological processes. \r Melting ground ice causes the ground surface to subside. Pooling \r or flowing water causes localised permafrost thaw and sometimes \r mass erosion. Together, these localised feedbacks can thaw through \r meters of permafrost within a short time, much more rapidly than \r would be caused by increasing air temperature alone. This process \r is a pulse disturbance to permafrost that can occur in response to \r climate, such as an extreme precipitation event (Balser et al., 2014; \r Kokelj et al., 2015), or coupled with other disturbances such as \r wildfire that affects the ground thermal regime (Jones et al., 2015a). \r There is medium confidence in the importance of abrupt thaw for \r driving change in permafrost at the circumpolar scale because \r it occurs at point locations rather than continuously across the \r [...]"


id: b50635d7cca8ef5d70d63c627ef1831
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29083
content:
"[...] landscape, but the risk for widespread change from this mechanism \r remains high because of the rapidity of change in these locations \r (Kokelj et al., 2017; Nitze et al., 2018). New research at the global \r scale has revealed that 3.6 x 106\r  km2, about 20% of the northern \r permafrost region, appears to be vulnerable to abrupt thaw (Olefeldt \r et al., 2016)."


id: c7c0a3d158157a54c781cfbe3a164cc5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32448
content:
"Analysis of satellite imagery between 2000 and 2013 identified \r a significant trend of earlier spring ice break-up across all regions \r of the Arctic (Smejkalova et al., 2016); independent satellite data \r showed approximately 80% of Arctic lakes experienced declines in \r ice cover duration during 2002-2015, due to both a later freeze-up \r and earlier break-up (Du et al., 2017) (high confidence). There are \r indications that lake ice across Alaska has thinned in recent decades \r (Alexeev et al., 2016), but ice thickness trends are not available at \r the pan-Arctic scale. Analysis of satellite data over northern Alaska \r show that approximately one-third of bedfast lakes (the entire water \r volume freezes by the end of winter) experienced a regime change to \r floating ice over the 1992-2011 period (Surdu et al., 2014; Arp et al., \r 2015). This can result in degradation of underlying permafrost (Arp \r et al., 2016; Bartsch et al., 2017). Lakes of the central and eastern \r [...]"


id: 27f922c870b274ad7855ba44c2583813
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4229
content:
"[...] Canadian High Arctic are transitioning from a perennial to seasonal \r ice regime (Surdu et al., 2016)."


id: 85692bec016f941147638761580967dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20609
content:
"There is high confidence that environmental drivers of Arctic surface \r water change are diverse and depend on local and regional factors \r such as permafrost properties and geomorphology (Nitze et al., 2018). \r Thermokarst lake expansion has been observed in the continuous \r permafrost of northern Siberia (Smith et al., 2005; Polishchuk et al., \r 2015) and Alaska (Jones et al., 2011); surface water area reduction has \r been observed in discontinuous permafrost of central and southern \r Siberia (Smith et al., 2005; Sharonov et al., 2012), western Canada \r (Labrecque et al., 2009; Carroll et al., 2011; Lantz and Turner, 2015) \r and interior Alaska (Chen et al., 2012; Rover et al., 2012). Increased \r evaporation from warmer/longer summers, decreased recharge due \r to reductions in snow melt volume, and dynamic processes such as \r ice-jam flooding (Chen et al., 2012; Bouchard et al., 2013; Jepsen \r et al., 2015) are important considerations for understanding observed \r [...]"


id: bbea77070d6281595b1f4ec5cb7fbafe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30291
content:
"A general trend of increasing discharge has been observed for large \r Siberian (Troy et al., 2012; Walvoord and Kurylyk, 2016) and Canadian \r (Ge et al., 2013; Dery et al., 2016) rivers that drain to the Arctic Ocean \r (medium confidence). Between 1976 and 2017, trends are 3.3 +- 1.6% \r for Eurasian rivers and 2.0 +- 1.8% for North American rivers (Holmes \r et al., 2018) (Figure 3.10). Extreme regional runoff events have also \r been identified (Stuefer et al., 2017). An observed increase in baseflow \r in the North American (Walvoord and Striegl, 2007; St. Jacques and \r Sauchyn, 2009) and Eurasian Arctic (Smith et al., 2007; Duan et al., \r 2017) over the last several decades is attributable to permafrost thaw \r and concomitant enhancement in groundwater discharge. The timing \r of spring season peak flow is generally earlier (Ge et al., 2013; Holmes \r et al., 2015). There is consistent evidence of decreasing summer \r season discharge for the Yenisei, Lena, and Ob watersheds in Siberia \r [...]"


id: 8bd52d759afa441dc6cee7613d8bbe0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21774
content:
"[...] (Ye et al., 2003; Yang et al., 2004a; Yang et al., 2004b) and the majority \r of northern Canadian rivers (Dery et al., 2016). Long-term records \r indicate water temperature increases (Webb et al., 2008; Yang and \r Peterson, 2017); attribution to rising air temperatures is complicated \r by the influence of reservoir regulation over Siberian regions (Liu \r et al., 2005; Lammers et al., 2007). Increases in discharge and water \r temperature in the spring season represent notable freshwater and \r heat fluxes to the Arctic Ocean (Yang et al., 2014)."


id: d040fad98ea8b0515b3277f15ef0f7b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34000
content:
"alone, if the rates of these disturbances increase. The observed \r trend of increasing fire is projected to continue for the rest of the \r century across most of the tundra and boreal region for many climate \r scenarios, with the boreal region projected to have the greatest \r increase in total area burned (Balshi et al., 2009; Kloster et al., 2012; \r Wotton et al., 2017). Due to vegetation-climate interactions, there is \r only medium confidence in projections of future area burned. As fire \r activity increases, flammable vegetation, such as the black spruce \r forest that dominates boreal Alaska, is projected to decline as it is \r replaced by low-flammability deciduous forest (Johnstone et al., 2011; \r Pastick et al., 2017). In other regions such as western Canada, by \r contrast, black spruce could be replaced by the even more flammable \r jack pine, creating regional-scale feedbacks that increase the spread \r of fire on the landscape (Heon et al., 2014). A regional process-model \r [...]"


id: 63f320007de5979593b3e65f4253d933
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14872
content:
"[...] study of Alaska projected annual median area burned during the \r 21st century to be 1.3-1.7 times higher compared with the historical \r average (Pastick et al., 2017). Fire also appears to be expanding as \r a novel disturbance into tundra and forest-tundra boundary regions \r previously protected by a cool, moist climate (Jones et al., 2009; Hu \r et al., 2010; Hu et al., 2015) (medium confidence). Annual tundra area \r burned in Alaska is projected to double under RCP6.0 from a historic \r rate of 270 km2\r  yr-1 to 500-610 km2 yr-1 over the 21st century (Hu \r et al., 2015). A statistical approach projected a fourfold increase in the \r 30-year probability of fire occurrence in the forest-tundra boundary \r by 2100 (Young et al., 2017). In contrast to fire, there has not yet \r been a comprehensive circumpolar projection of how abrupt thaw \r rates may change in the future, but one component of abrupt thaw, \r change in abrupt thaw lake area, has been projected to increase to \r [...]"


id: 57500e89c4ce45419b0dd099bad20ff2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12616
content:
"[...] increase by 53% under RCP8.5 (Walter Anthony et al., 2018) above \r the 1.4 x 106\r  km2 of small lakes and ponds that currently exist in \r the permafrost region (Muster et al., 2017). As a result, there is low \r confidence in the ability to assess the magnitude by which abrupt \r thaw across the entire landscape will affect regional permafrost, \r even though this mechanism for rapid change appears critically \r important for projecting future change (Kokelj et al., 2017). "


id: d68191c94bb89a1aa812efd337a6ea0e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35047
content:
"Circumpolar- or global-scale models represent permafrost \r degradation in response to warming scenarios as increases in \r thaw depth only. The CMIP5 models project with high confidence\r that thaw depth will increase and areal extent of near-surface \r permafrost will decrease substantially (Koven et al., 2013; Slater \r and Lawrence, 2013) (Figure 3.10). However, there is only medium \r confidence in the magnitude of these changes due to at least a five\u0002fold range of estimated present day near-surface permafrost area \r (<5 - >25 x 106\r  km2) by these models. This was caused by a wide \r range of model sensitivity in permafrost area to air temperature \r change, resulting in a large range of projected near-surface permafrost \r loss by 2100: 2-66% for RCP2.6 (24 +- 16%; likely range), 15-87% \r under RCP4.5 and 30-99% (69 +- 20%; likely range) under RCP8.5. \r A  more recent analysis of near-surface permafrost trends from \r a  subset of models that self-identified as structurally representing \r [...]"


id: 970f96c926a45aa961d4471cd53be1a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23768
content:
"[...] the permafrost region had a significantly smaller range of estimated \r present day near-surface permafrost area (13.1-19.3 x  106 km2\r ; \r mean +- SD, 14.1 +- 3.5 x 106 km2\r ) (McGuire et al., 2018). This subset \r of models also showed large reductions of near-surface permafrost \r area, averaging a 90% loss (12.7 +- 5.1 x 106 km2\r ) of permafrost area \r by 2300 for RCP8.5 and 29% loss (4.1 +- 0.6 x 106 km2\r ) for RCP4.5, \r with much of that long-term loss already occurring by 2100."


id: 392a10ce72ade5c87126fea557bd7430
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7266
content:
"Climate model simulations project a  warmer and wetter Arctic \r (Krasting et al., 2013), with increased specific humidity due to \r enhanced evaporation (Laine et al., 2014), and moisture flux \r convergence increases into the Arctic (Skific and Francis, 2013). \r Increased cold-season precipitation is projected across the Arctic \r by CMIP5 models (Lique et al., 2016) due to increased moisture \r flux convergence from outside the Arctic (Zhang et al., 2012) and \r enhanced moisture availability from reduced sea ice cover (Bintanja \r and Selten, 2014) (high confidence). Increases in precipitation \r extremes are also projected over northern watersheds (Kharin \r et al., 2013; Sillmann et al., 2013), while rain on snow events are \r expected to increase (Hansen et al., 2014). A net increased ratio of \r precipitation minus evaporation is projected, resulting in increased \r freshwater flux from the land surface to the Arctic Ocean, projected \r [...]"


id: f82469b15abfeb82328fa81e75eb053d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41033
content:
"[...] to be 30% above current values by 2100 under RCP4.5 (Haine et al., \r 2015) (Figure 3.10). This is consistent with CMIP5 model projections \r of increased discharge from Arctic watersheds (van Vliet et al., 2013; \r Gelfan et al., 2016; MacDonald et al., 2018). The water temperature \r of this increased discharge is projected to be approximately 1oC "


id: abf6845c2f54e2310bb0d4854e116944
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27493
content:
"25 +- 14 Tg CO2-C yr-1 averaged over the land area of both biomes for \r the entire study period. For comparison to projected global emissions, \r this would be equivalent to a net source of 0.3 Pg CO2-C yr-1 assuming \r the Alaska study region (1.6 x 106\r  km2) could be scaled to the entire \r northern circumpolar permafrost region soil area (17.8 x 106\r  km2).\r The permafrost soil carbon pool is climate sensitive and an order of \r magnitude larger than carbon stored in plant biomass (Schuur et al., \r 2018) (very high confidence). Initial estimates were converging on \r a  range of cumulative emissions from soils to the atmosphere by \r 2100, but recent studies have actually widened that range somewhat \r (Figure 3.11) (medium confidence). Expert assessment and laboratory \r soil incubation studies suggest that substantial quantities of C (tens to \r hundreds Pg C) could potentially be transferred from the permafrost \r carbon pool into the atmosphere under RCP8.5 (Schuur et al., 2013; \r [...]"


id: c418accd5046242c334715cc16098b07
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31786
content:
"[...] Schadel et al., 2014)4. Global dynamical models supported these \r findings, showing potential carbon release from the permafrost zone \r ranging from 37-174 Pg C  by 2100 under high emission climate \r warming trajectories, with an average across models of 92 +- 17 Pg C \r (mean +- SE) (Zhuang et al., 2006; Koven et al., 2011; Schaefer et al., \r 2011; MacDougall et al., 2012; Burke et al., 2013; Schaphoff et al., \r 2013; Schneider von Deimling et al., 2015). This range is generally \r consistent with several newer data-driven modelling approaches that \r estimated that soil carbon releases by 2100 (for RCP8.5) will be 57 \r Pg C (Koven et al., 2015) and 87 Pg C (Schneider von Deimling et al., \r 2015), as well as an updated estimate of 102 Pg C from one of the \r previous models (MacDougall and Knutti, 2016). However, the latest \r model runs performed with either structural enhancements to better \r represent permafrost carbon dynamics (Burke et al., 2017a), or common \r [...]"


id: 7f008e80e2c9dd255895ab89b92b9b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19497
content:
"[...] environmental input data (McGuire et al., 2016) show similar soil carbon \r losses, but also indicate the potential for stimulated plant growth \r (nutrients, temperature/growing season length, CO2 fertilisation) to \r offset some (Kleinen and Brovkin, 2018) or all of these losses, at least \r during this century, by sequestering new carbon into plant biomass and \r increasing carbon inputs into the surface soil (McGuire et al., 2018). \r These future carbon emission levels would be a significant fraction of \r those projected from fossil fuels with implications for allowable carbon \r budgets that are consistent with limiting global warming, but will also \r depend on how vegetation responds (high confidence). Furthermore, \r there is high confidence that climate scenarios that involve mitigation \r (e.g., RCP4.5) will help to dampen the response of carbon emissions \r from the Arctic and boreal regions."


id: 12cfec752477573fbe19c1a1d4264e67
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 517
content:
"Climate warming is expected to change the storage of carbon in \r vegetation and soils in northern regions, and net carbon transferred \r to the atmosphere as CO2 and methane acts as a  feedback to \r accelerate global climate change. There is high confidence that the \r northern region acted as a net carbon sink as carbon accumulated in \r terrestrial ecosystems over the Holocene (Loisel et al., 2014; Lindgren \r et al., 2018). There is medium evidence with low agreement whether \r changing climate in the modern period has shifted these ecosystems \r into net carbon sources. Syntheses of ecosystem CO2 fluxes have \r alternately showed tundra ecosystems as carbon sinks or neutral \r averaged across the circumpolar region for the 1990s and 2000s \r (McGuire et al., 2012), or carbon sources over the same time period \r (Belshe et al., 2013). Both syntheses agree that the summer growing \r season is a period of net carbon uptake into terrestrial ecosystems \r [...]"


id: 1d0308baa99458b1d3234ea75cc21757
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2287
content:
"[...] (high confidence), and this uptake appears to be increasing as \r a function of vegetation density/biomass (Ueyama et al., 2013). The \r discrepancy between these syntheses may be a result of CO2 release \r rates during the non-summer season that are now thought to be \r higher than previously estimated (high confidence) (Webb et al., 2016) \r or the separation of upland and wetland ecosystem types, which was \r done in one synthesis but not the other. Moisture status is a primary \r control over ecosystem carbon sink/source strength with wetlands \r more often than not still acting as annual net carbon sinks even while \r methane is emitted (Lund et al., 2010). Recent aircraft measurements \r of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over Alaska showed that \r tundra regions of Alaska were a  consistent net CO2 source to the \r atmosphere, whereas boreal forest regions were either neutral or net \r CO2 sinks for the period 2012-2014 (Commane et al., 2017). That \r [...]"


id: e171ff7b8e6c38ef063c799cfe7d56b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36933
content:
"mid-latitudes (Sweeney et al., 2016). However, this contrasts with \r indirect integrated estimates of methane emissions from observations \r of expanding permafrost thaw lakes that suggest a  release of an \r additional 1.6-5 Tg CH4 yr-1 over the last 60 years (Walter Anthony \r et al., 2014). At the same time, there is high confidence that methane \r fluxes at the ecosystem to regional scale have been under-observed, in \r part due to the low solubility of methane in water leading to ebullution \r (bubbling) flux to the atmosphere that is heterogeneous in time \r and space. Some new quantifications include: cold-season methane \r emissions that can be >50% of the annual budget of terrestrial \r ecosystems (Zona et al., 2016); geological methane seeps that may \r be climate sensitive if permafrost currently serves as a cap preventing \r atmospheric release (Walter Anthony et al., 2012; Ruppel and Kessler, \r 2016; Kohnert et al., 2017); estimates of shallow Arctic Ocean shelf \r [...]"


id: 3ca01dad0adef88486495bcf659f3f2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7856
content:
"[...] methane emissions where the range of estimates based on methane \r concentrations in air and water has widened with more observations \r and now ranges from 3 Tg CH4 yr-1 (Thornton et al., 2016) to 17 Tg \r CH4 yr-1 (Shakhova et al., 2013). Observations such as these underlie \r the fact that source estimates for methane made from atmospheric \r observations are typically lower than methane source estimates made \r from upscaling of ground observations (e.g., Berchet et al., 2016), and \r this problem has not improved, even at the global scale, over several \r decades of research (Saunois et al., 2016; Crill and Thornton, 2017)."


id: 25d4d35969e74d709c170390e87e8576
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3838
content:
"Warming induced reductions in the duration and extent of Arctic \r spring snow cover (Section 3.4.1.1) lower albedo because snow-free \r land reflects much less solar radiation than snow. The corresponding \r increase in net radiation absorption at the surface provides a positive \r feedback to global temperatures (Flanner et al., 2011; Qu and Hall, \r 2014; Thackeray and Fletcher, 2016) (high confidence). Estimates of \r increases in global net solar energy flux due to snow cover loss range \r from 0.10-0.22 W m-2 (+- 50%; medium confidence) depending on \r dataset and time period (Flanner et al., 2011; Chen et al., 2015; Singh \r et al., 2015; Chen et al., 2016b). Sources of uncertainty include the \r range in observed spring snow cover extent trends (Hori et al., 2017) \r and the influence of clouds on shortwave feedbacks (Sedlar, 2018; \r Sledd and  L'Ecuyer, 2019). Terrestrial snow changes also affect the \r longwave energy budget via altered surface emissivity (Huang et al., \r [...]"


id: 9ed92a4f174965de30d44e7b988c218b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25170
content:
"[...] 2018). Climate model simulations show that changes in snow cover \r dominate land surface related positive feedbacks to atmospheric \r heating (Euskirchen et al., 2016), but regional variations in surface \r albedo are also influenced by vegetation (Loranty et al., 2014). There is \r evidence for positive sensitivity of surface temperatures to increased \r northern hemisphere boreal and tundra leaf area index, which \r contributes a positive feedback to warming (Forzieri et al., 2017). "


id: f79ec8a06692746d18be57521f8d4544
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40937
content:
"In many of the dynamical model projections previously discussed, \r methane release is not explicitly represented because fluxes are \r small even though higher global warming potential of methane \r makes these emissions relatively more important than on a  mass \r basis alone. Global models that do include methane show that \r emissions may already (from 2000 to 2012) be increasing at a rate \r of  1.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the northern region as a  direct response \r to temperature (Riley et al., 2011; Gao et al., 2013; Poulter et al., \r 2017). A  model intercomparison study forecast northern methane \r emissions to increase from 18 Tg CH4 yr-1 to 42 Tg CH4 yr-1 under \r RCP8.5 by 2100 largely as a result of an increase in wetland extent \r (Zhang et al., 2017). However, projected methane emissions are \r sensitive to changes in surface hydrology (Lawrence et al., 2015) and \r a suite of models that were thought to perform well in high-latitude \r [...]"


id: 75b448d068ae0a13ada34059a405527
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
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vector_id: 17938
content:
"[...] ecosystems showed a general soil drying trend even as the overall \r water cycle intensified (McGuire et al., 2018). Furthermore, most \r models described above do not include many of the abrupt thaw \r processes that can result in lake expansion, wetland formation, and \r massive erosion and exposure to decomposition of previously frozen \r carbon-rich permafrost, leading to medium confidence in future \r model projections of methane. Recent studies that addressed some \r of these landscape controls over future emissions projected increases \r in methane above the current levels on the order 10-60 Tg CH4 yr-1 \r under RCP8.5 by 2100 (Schuur et al., 2013; Koven et al., 2015; \r Lawrence et al., 2015; Schneider von Deimling et al., 2015; Walter \r Anthony et al., 2018). These additional methane fluxes are projected \r to cause 40-70% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in \r this century even though methane emissions are much less than CO2\r [...]"


id: 85794948a19facd8276757ed3c5a080
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20620
content:
"[...] by mass (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2015; Walter Anthony et al., \r 2018). As with total carbon emissions, there is high confidence that \r mitigation of anthropogenic methane sources could help to dampen \r the impact of increased methane emissions from the Arctic and \r boreal regions (Christensen et al., 2019)."


id: b1a70b1eb7dea3ee61539493f12a9f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28475
content:
"Changes in tundra vegetation can have important ecosystem effects, \r in particular on hydrology, carbon and nutrient cycling and surface \r energy balance, which together impact permafrost (e.g., Myers-Smith \r and Hik, 2013; Frost and Epstein, 2014; Nauta et al., 2014). Aside \r from physical impacts, changing vegetation influences the diversity \r and abundance of herbivores (e.g., Fauchald et al., 2017b; Horstkotte \r et al., 2017) in the Arctic. The overall trend for tundra vegetation \r across the 36-year satellite period (1982-2017) shows increasing \r above ground biomass (greening) throughout a  majority of the \r circumpolar Arctic (high confidence) (Xu et al., 2013a; Ju and Masek, \r 2016; Bhatt et al., 2017). Increasing greenness has been in some cases \r linked with shifts in plant species dominance away from graminoids \r (grasses and sedges) towards shrubs (high confidence) (Myers-Smith \r et al., 2015). Within the overall trend of increases (greening), some \r [...]"


id: c3c9e6124eaf07d3ca26fc23068a55dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31719
content:
"Similar to tundra, boreal forest vegetation shows trends of both \r greening and browning over multiple years in different regions across \r the satellite record (Beck and Goetz, 2011; Ju and Masek, 2016) (high \r confidence). Here, patterns of changing vegetation are a  result of \r direct responses to changes in climate (temperature, precipitation \r and seasonality) and other driving factors for vegetation (nutrients, \r disturbance) similar to what has been reported in tundra. While boreal \r forest may expand at the northern edge (Pearson et al., 2013), climate \r projections suggest that it could diminish at the southern edge and \r be replaced by lower biomass woodland/shrublands (Koven, 2013; \r Gauthier et al., 2015) (medium confidence). Furthermore, changes in \r fire disturbance are leading to shifts in landscape distribution of early \r and late successional ecosystem types, which is also a major factor in \r satellite trends. Fires that burn deeply into the organic soil layer can \r [...]"


id: f175b853cb0c1ee156bdf8fb97175f4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39866
content:
"[...] alter permafrost stability, hydrology and vegetation. Loss of the soil \r organic layer exposes mineral soil seedbeds (Johnstone et al., 2009), \r leading to recruitment of deciduous tree and shrub species that do \r not establish on organic soil (Johnstone et al., 2010). This recruitment \r has been shown to shift post-fire vegetation to alternate successional \r trajectories (Johnstone et al., 2010). Model projections suggest that \r Alaskan boreal forest soon may cross a point where recent increases \r in fire activity have made deciduous stands as abundant as spruce \r stands on the landscape (Mann et al., 2012) (medium confidence). \r This projected trend of increasing deciduous forest at the expense \r of evergreen forest is mirrored in Russian and Chinese boreal forests \r as well (Shakhova et al., 2013; Shuman et al., 2015; Wu et al., 2017) \r (medium confidence)."


id: 1bf5e2927bfd54ea03ced41fae7c104a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2102
content:
"Projections of tundra vegetation distribution across the Arctic by \r 2050 in response to changing environmental conditions suggest \r that the areal extent of most tundra types will decrease by at least \r 50% (Pearson et al., 2013) (medium confidence). Woody shrubs and \r trees are projected to expand to cover 24-52% of the current tundra \r region by 2050, or 12-33% if tree dispersal is restricted. Adding \r to this, the expansion of fire into tundra that has not experienced \r large-scale disturbance for centuries causes large reductions in soil \r carbon stocks (Mack et al., 2011), shifts in vegetation composition \r and productivity (Bret-Harte et al., 2013), and can lead to widespread \r permafrost degradation (Jones et al., 2015a) at faster rates than \r would occur by changing environmental conditions alone. In tundra \r regions, graminoid (grasses and sedges) tundra is projected to be \r replaced by more flammable shrub tundra in future climate scenarios, \r [...]"


id: 6e5fe86c092d2af35efd09cc4a3b86cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16683
content:
"[...] and tree migration into tundra could further increase fuel loading \r (Pastick et al., 2017) (medium confidence)."


id: ac547b5737046ac238c2b37cfc321916
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27559
content:
"among muskoxen from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago; loss of >50% \r of the population since 2010 may be attributable to disease interacting \r with extreme temperature events, although unequivocal links to \r climate have not been established (Kutz et al., 2015; Forde et al., \r 2016a; Forde et al., 2016b). Anthrax is projected to expand northward \r in response to warming, and resulted in substantial mortality events for \r reindeer on the Yamal Peninsula of Russia in 2016 with mobilisation of \r bacteria possibly from a frozen reindeer carcass or melting permafrost \r (Walsh et al., 2018). In concert with climate forcing, pathogens are \r very likely responsible for increasing mortality in Arctic ungulates \r (muskox, caribou/reindeer) and alteration of transmission patterns in \r marine food chains, broadly threatening sustainability of subsistence \r and commercial hunting and fishing and safety of traditional foods \r [...]"


id: 244983f275fd745c94b99759e29a5420
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3575
content:
"[...] for northern cultures at high latitudes (Jenkins et al., 2013; Kutz et al., \r 2014; Hoberg et al., 2017)."


id: 51880897808b816db662f7c2e69ba551
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11621
content:
"There is low confidence in understanding the complex drivers of \r observed Rangifer changes. Hunting and predation (the latter \r exacerbated by modification of the landscape for exploration and \r resource extraction; Dabros et al., 2018) increase in importance \r as populations decline. Climate strongly influences productivity: \r extremes in heat, drought, winter icing and snow depth reduce \r Rangifer survival (Mallory and Boyce, 2017). Changes in the timing \r of sea ice formation have direct effects on risks during Rangifer\r migration via inter-island movement and connection to the mainland \r (Poole et al., 2010). Summer warming is changing the composition \r of tundra plant communities, modifying the relationship between \r climate, forage and Rangifer (Albon et al., 2017), which also impacts \r other Arctic species such as musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) (Schmidt \r et al., 2015). As polar trophic systems are highly connected (Schmidt \r [...]"


id: 9a27c8a64f613167aa89b1f92674e8ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24360
content:
"[...] et al., 2017), changes will propagate through the ecosystem with \r effects on other herbivores such as geese and voles, as well as \r predators such as wolves (Hansen et al., 2013; Klaczek et al., 2016)."


id: e7c818ecd6d63aa8ce57a87536b460b4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38086
content:
"Climate-driven changes in seasonal ice and permafrost conditions \r influence water quality (high confidence). Shortened duration of \r freshwater ice cover (more light absorption, increased nutrient \r input) is expected to result in higher primary productivity (Hodgson \r and Smol, 2008; Vincent et al., 2011; Griffiths et al., 2017b) and \r may also encourage greater methane emissions from Arctic lakes \r (Greene et al., 2014; Tan and Zhuang, 2015). Thaw slumps, active \r layer detachments and peat plateau collapse affect surface water \r connectivity (Connon et al., 2014) and enhance sediment, particulate \r and solute fluxes in river and stream networks (Kokelj et al., 2013). \r The transfer of enhanced nutrients from land to water (driven by \r active layer thickening and thermokarst processes; Abbott et al., \r 2015; Vonk et al., 2015) has been linked to heightened autotrophic \r productivity in freshwater ecosystems (Wrona et al., 2016). Still, there \r [...]"


id: b767f91898ef523c2d911738f1d0e92c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29480
content:
"[...] is low confidence in the influence of permafrost changes on dissolved \r organic carbon, because of competing mechanisms that influence \r carbon export. Permafrost thaw could contribute to the mobilisation of \r previously frozen organic carbon (Abbott et al., 2014; Wickland et al., \r 2018; Walvoord et al., 2019) thereby enhancing both particulate and \r dissolved organic carbon export to aquatic systems. Increased delivery \r of this dissolved carbon from enhanced river discharge to the Arctic \r Ocean (Section 3.4.3.1.2) can exacerbate regionally extreme aragonite \r undersaturation of shelf waters (Semiletov et al., 2016) driven by \r ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (Section  3.2.1.2.4). Conversely, \r reduced dissolved organic carbon export could accompany permafrost \r thaw as (1) water infiltrates deeper and has longer residence times \r for decomposition (Striegl et al., 2005) and (2) the proportion of \r groundwater (typically lower in dissolved organic carbon and higher \r [...]"


id: 4e35eb8d2757d94ca5d26e911e1ea8b1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11029
content:
"[...] in DIC than runoff) to total streamflow increases (Walvoord and \r Striegl, 2007). Increased thermokarst also has the potential to impact \r freshwater cycling of inorganic carbon (Zolkos et al., 2018)."


id: 265bd84e155a711e4a3ab1f5b41667e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3918
content:
"There is high confidence that habitat loss or change due to climate \r change impact Arctic fishes. Thinning ice on lakes and streams \r changes the overwintering habitat for aquatic fauna by impacting \r winter water volumes and dissolved oxygen levels (Leppi et al., 2016). \r Surface water loss, reduced surface water connectivity among aquatic \r habitats, and changes to the timing and magnitude of seasonal flows \r (Section 3.4.1.2) result in a direct loss of spawning, feeding, or rearing \r habitats (Poesch et al., 2016). Changes to permafrost landscapes \r have reduced freshwater habitat available for fish and other aquatic \r biota, including aquatic invertebrates upon which the fish depend \r for food (Chin et al., 2016). Gullying deepens channels (Rowland \r et al., 2011; Liljedahl et al., 2016) that otherwise may connect lake \r habitats occupied by fishes. This can lead to the loss of surface water \r connectivity, limit fish access to key habitats, and lower fish diversity \r [...]"


id: d13083db30d224499207d7853504b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34150
content:
"[...] (Haynes et al., 2014; Laske et al., 2016). Small connecting stream \r channels, which are vulnerable to drying, provide necessary migratory \r pathways for fishes, allowing them to access spawning and summer \r rearing grounds (Heim et al., 2016; McFarland et al., 2017)."


id: 4ea8f2dbe03806b26496fb2077b0cbf5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11109
content:
"Freshwater systems across the Arctic are relatively shallow, and \r thus are expected to warm (high confidence). This may make some \r surface waters inhospitably warm for cold water species such as \r Arctic Grayling (Thymallus arcticus) and whitefishes (Coregonus \r spp.), or may increase the risk of Saprolegnia fungus that appears \r to have recently spread rapidly, infecting whitefishes at much higher \r rates in Arctic Alaska than noted in the past (Sformo et al., 2017). \r High infection rates may be driven by stress or nutrient enrichment \r from thawing permafrost, which increases pathogen virulence with \r fish (Wedekind et al., 2010). Warmer water and longer growing \r seasons will also affect food abundance because invertebrate life \r histories and production are temperature and degree-day dependent \r (Regniere et al., 2012). Increased nutrient export from permafrost \r loss (Frey et al., 2007), facilitated by warmer temperatures, will likely\r [...]"


id: 5aa6eee491c4b4b2dfa247eec21c4580
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13206
content:
"[...] increase food resources for consumers, but the impact on lower \r trophic levels within food webs is not clearly understood."


id: 5e4c786195281dc3e87b003568d4e8ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13881
content:
"Ongoing climate change induced reductions in suitable habitat for Arctic sea ice affiliated endemic marine mammals is an \r escalating threat (Section 3.2.3.1) (high confidence). This is further complicated by the northward expansion of the summer ranges \r of a variety of temperate whale species, documented recently in both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the Arctic (Brower et al., 2017; \r Storrie et al., 2018) and increasing pressure from anthropogenic activities. Also, over the recent decade a northward shift in benthic \r species, with subsequent changes in community composition has been detected in both the northern Bering Sea (Grebmeier, 2012), off \r Western Greenland (Renaud et al., 2015) and the Barents Sea (Kortsch et al., 2012) (medium confidence). At the same time as these \r northward expansions or shifts, a number of populations of species as different as polar bear and Arctic char show range contraction \r [...]"


id: 46ac9875081551653aad3a08f01c115c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9638
content:
"[...] or population declines (Winfield et al., 2010; Bromaghin et al., 2015; Laidre et al., 2018)."


id: 890a8180a4b92ee1f54c9bd27d711757
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21273
content:
"In the Barents Sea, major expansions in distribution over the recent years to decades have been well documented for both \r individual species and whole biological communities (high confidence). New information strengthens findings reported in WGII AR5 \r of ecologically and commercially important fish stocks having extended their habitats markedly to the north and east, concomitant \r to increased sea temperature and retreating sea ice. This includes capelin (Ingvaldsen and Gjosaeter, 2013), Atlantic cod (Kjesbu \r et al., 2014) and haddock (Landa et al., 2014). Of even greater importance is novel evidence of distinct distributional changes at the \r community level (Fossheim et al., 2015; Kortsch et al., 2015; Frainer et al., 2017) (Box 3.4 Figure 1). Until recently, the northern Barents \r Sea was dominated by small-sized, slow-growing fish species with specialised diets, mostly living in close association with the sea \r [...]"


id: 21b168276b02bdfdd9c92fb7aec6e79f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3141
content:
"[...] floor. Simultaneous with rising sea temperatures and retreating sea ice, these Arctic fishes are being replaced by boreal, fast-growing, \r large-bodied generalist fish moving in from the south. These large, migratory predators take advantage of increased production while \r the Arctic fish species suffer from higher competition and predation and are retracting northwards and eastwards. Consequently, \r climate change is inducing structural change over large spatial scales, leading to a borealisation ('Atlantification') of the European \r Arctic biological communities (Fossheim et al., 2015; Kortsch et al., 2015; Frainer et al., 2017) (medium confidence). "


id: 7b489c21dffe79d545bf23a5183a3314
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18892
content:
"In Antarctic marine systems, there is evidence of recent climate-related range shifts in the southwest Atlantic and West Antarctic \r Peninsula for penguin species (Pygoscelis papua and P. antarctica) and for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), but mesozooplankton \r communities do not appear to have changed or shifted in response to ocean warming (Section 3.2.3.2). Recent evidence suggests \r that the ACC and its associated fronts and thermal gradients may be more permeable to biological dispersal than previously thought, \r with storm-forced surface waves and ocean eddies enhancing oceanographic connectivity for drift particles in surface layers of the \r Southern Ocean (Fraser et al., 2017; Fraser et al., 2018) (low confidence), but it is unclear whether this will be an increasingly important \r pathway under climate change. Greater ship activity in the Southern Ocean may also present a risk for increasing introduction of \r [...]"


id: 22fbf0885bfd7559db4e1a61a2778b26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3352
content:
"[...] non-native marine species, with the potential for these species to become invasive with changing environmental conditions (McCarthy \r et al., 2019). Current evidence of invasions by shell-crushing crabs on the Antarctic continental slope and shelf remains equivocal \r (Griffiths et al., 2013; Aronson et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2017d)."


id: de5e498bb1889e2a01875985025e6eb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36381
content:
"On Arctic land, northward range expansions have been recorded in species from all major taxon groups based both on scientific \r studies and local observations (high confidence) (CAFF, 2013a; AMAP, 2017a; AMAP, 2017b; AMAP, 2018). The most recent examples \r of terrestrial vertebrates expanding northwards include a whole range of mammals in Yakutia, Russia (Safronov, 2016), moose (Alces \r alces) into the Arctic region of both northern continents (Tape et al., 2016) and North American beaver (Castor canadensis) in Alaska \r (Tape et al., 2018). In parallel with these expansions, pathogens and pests are also spreading north (CAFF, 2013a; Taylor et al., 2015; \r Forde et al., 2016b; Burke et al., 2017b; Kafle et al., 2018). A widespread change is tundra greening, which in some cases is linked to \r shifting plant dominance within Arctic plant communities, in particular an increase in woody shrub biomass as conditions become\r [...]"


id: e89952f2b3b29bb868872f6fdf72957a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38262
content:
"Expansion of subarctic terrestrial species and biological communities into the Arctic and displacing native species is considered \r a major threat, since unique Arctic species may be less competitive than encroaching subarctic species favoured by changing climatic \r conditions (CAFF, 2013a). Similar displacements may take place within zones of the Arctic when low- and mid-Arctic species expand \r northward. Here, the most vulnerable species and communities may be in the species-poor, but unique, northernmost sub-zone of the \r Arctic because species cannot migrate northward as southern species encroach (CAVM Team, 2003; Walker et al., 2016; AMAP, 2018). \r This 'Arctic squeeze' is a combined effect of the fact that the area of the globe increasingly shrinks when moving poleward and that \r there is nowhere further north on land to go for terrestrial biota at the northern coast. The expected overall result of these shifts and \r [...]"


id: 97e7834333d37d19b9e1d088045bef87
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23941
content:
"[...] limits will be a loss of biodiversity (CAFF, 2013a; CAFF, 2013b; AMAP, 2018) (medium confidence). At the southern limit of the Arctic, \r thermal hotspots may support high biological productivity, but not necessarily high biodiversity (Walker et al., 2015) and may even \r act as advanced bridgeheads for expansion of subarctic species into the true Arctic (medium confidence). At the other end of the \r Arctic zonal range, a temperature increase of only 1oC-2oC in the northernmost subzone may allow the establishment of woody dwarf \r shrubs, sedges and other species into bare soil areas that may radically change its appearance and ecological functions (Walker et al., \r 2015; Myers-Smith et al., 2019) (medium confidence). "


id: 7dd9b270bde440a1afd723fcf3dc8711
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19316
content:
"Alien species are a major driver of terrestrial biodiversity change also in the Antarctic region (Frenot et al., 2005; Chown et al., 2012; \r McClelland et al., 2017). The Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty restricts the introduction of non-native \r species to Antarctica as do the management authorities of sub-Antarctic islands (De Villiers et al., 2006). Despite this, alien species \r and their propagules continue to be introduced to the Antarctic continent and sub-Antarctic islands (Hughes et al., 2015). To date, 14 \r non-native terrestrial species have colonised the Antarctic Treaty area (excluding sub-Antarctic islands) (Hughes et al., 2015), while the \r number in the sub-Antarctic is much higher (on the order of 200 species) (Frenot et al., 2005) (low confidence). Species distribution \r models for terrestrial invasive species indicate that climate does not currently constitute a barrier for the establishment of invasive \r [...]"


id: a2cee656f747d98c712efd0aff755297
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25862
content:
"[...] species on all subantarctic islands, and that the AP region will be the most vulnerable location on the Antarctic continent to invasive \r species establishment under RCP8.5 (Duffy et al., 2017). Thus, for continental Antarctica, existing climatic barriers to alien species \r establishment will weaken as warming continues across the region (medium confidence). An increase in the ice-free area linked to \r glacier retreat in Antarctica is expected to increase the area available for new terrestrial ecosystems (Lee et al., 2017a). Along with \r growing number of visitors, this is expected to increase in the establishment probability of terrestrial alien species (Chown et al., 2012; \r Hughes et al., 2015) (medium confidence). "


id: edbec5e2c0f69d9618035fa0cc6efe37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39184
content:
"There is high confidence that both risks and opportunities arise for \r coastal communities with changing sea ice and open water conditions. \r Of particular concern for coastal communities is landfast sea ice \r (Section 3.3.1.1.5), which creates an extension of the land in winter \r that facilitates travel (Inuit Circumpolar Council Canada, 2014). The \r floe edge position, timing and dynamics of freeze-up and break-up, \r sea ice stability through the winter, and length of the summer open \r water season are important indicators of changing ice conditions \r and safe travel (Gearheard et al., 2013; Eicken et al., 2014; Baztan \r et al., 2017). Warming water temperature, altered salinity profiles, \r snow properties, changing currents and winds all have consequences \r for the use of sea ice as a travel or hunting platform (Hansen et al., \r 2013; Eicken et al., 2014; Clark et al., 2016a). More leads (areas \r of open water), especially in the spring, can mean more hunting \r [...]"


id: c45c27ff99b7f054210bd0cd2f7fb568
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31845
content:
"[...] opportunities such as whaling off the coast of Alaska (Hansen et al., \r 2013; Eicken et al., 2014). In Nunavut, a floe edge closer to shore \r improves access to marine mammals such as seals or narwhal (Ford \r et al., 2013). However, these conditions also hamper access to coastal \r or inland hunting grounds (Hansen et al., 2013; Durkalec et al., 2015), \r have increased potential for break-off events at the floe edge (Ford \r et al., 2013), or can result in decreased presence (or total absence) of \r ice-associated marine mammals with an absence of summer sea ice \r (Eicken et al., 2014)."


id: bf9a13703f05dba83291e10bc6a1428c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30974
content:
"There is high confidence in indicators that food insecurity risks are on \r the rise for Indigenous Arctic peoples. Food is strongly tied to culture, \r identity, values and ways of life (Donaldson et al., 2010; Cunsolo Willox \r et al., 2015; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015); thus, \r impacts to food security go beyond access to food and physical health. \r Food systems in northern communities are intertwined with northern \r ecosystems because of subsistence hunting, fishing and gathering \r activities. Environmental changes to animal habitat, population sizes \r and movement mean that culturally important food species may no \r longer be found within accessible ranges or familiar areas (Parlee and \r Furgal, 2012; Rautio et al., 2014; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska \r (ICC-AK), 2015; Lavrillier et al., 2016) (Section 3.4.3.2.2). This impacts \r negatively the accessibility of culturally important local food sources \r [...]"


id: 2d4bdbd376fc0fb3ed950aa913fcbb6e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5254
content:
"[...] (Lavrillier, 2013; Rosol et al., 2016) that make important contributions \r to a nutritious diet (Donaldson et al., 2010; Hansen et al., 2013; Dudley \r et al., 2015). Longer open water seasons and poorer ice conditions on \r lakes impact fishing options (Laidler, 2012) and waterfowl hunting \r (Goldhar et al., 2014). Permafrost warming and increases in active \r layer thickness (Section  3.4.1.3) reduce the reliability of permafrost \r for natural refrigeration. In some cases these changes have reduced \r access to, and consumption of, locally resourced food and can result \r in increased incidence of illness (Laidler, 2012; Cochran et al., 2013; \r Cozzetto et al., 2013; Rautio et al., 2014; Beaumier et al., 2015). These \r consequences of climate change are intertwined with processes of \r globalisation, whereby complex social, economic and cultural factors \r are contributing to a  dietary transformation from locally resourced \r [...]"


id: 5728117229fb80665adda448c3abf50e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12587
content:
"[...] foods to imported market foods across the Arctic (Harder and Wenzel, \r 2012; Parlee and Furgal, 2012; Nymand and Fondahl, 2014; Beaumier \r et al., 2015). Limiting exposures to zoonotic, foodborne and waterborne \r pathogens (Section 3.4.3.2.2) depends on accurate and comprehensive \r data on species diversity, biology and distribution and pathways for \r invasion (Hoberg and Brooks, 2015; Kafle et al., 2018).\r There is high confidence that changes to travel conditions impact \r food security through access to hunting grounds. Shorter snow cover "


id: ae124e05f634b414aa374238bf24ed1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27866
content:
"Climate change has negatively affected place attachment via hunting, \r fishing, trapping and traveling disruptions, which have important \r mental health impacts (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2012; Durkalec et al., \r 2015; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018). The pathways through which climate \r change impacts mental wellness in the Arctic varies by gender \r (Bunce and Ford, 2015; Ostapchuk et al., 2015; Bunce et al., 2016) \r and age (Petrasek-MacDonald et al., 2013; Ostapchuk et al., 2015). \r Emotional impacts of climate-related changes in the environment \r were significantly higher for women compared to men, linked to \r concern for family members (Ostapchuk et al., 2015). However, men \r are also vulnerable due to gendered roles in subsistence and cultural \r activities (Bunce and Ford, 2015). In coastal areas, sea ice means \r freedom for travel, hunting and fishing, so changes in sea ice affect \r the experience of and connection with place. In turn, this influences \r [...]"


id: 3084e82e36b7555390f340cbbc97924
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5791
content:
"[...] individual and collective mental/emotional health, as well as spiritual \r and social vitality according to relationships between sea ice use, \r culture, knowledge and autonomy (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013a; \r Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013b; Gearheard et al., 2013; Durkalec et al., \r 2015; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015)."


id: e1ab094793f4d805fc2e1b006f75ae70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36973
content:
"The Arctic mixed economy is characterised by a  combination of \r subsistence activities, and employment and cash income. There is low \r confidence about the extent and nature of impact of climate change \r on local subsistence activities and economic opportunities across \r the Arctic (e.g.,  hunting, fishing, resource extraction, tourism and \r transportation; see Section 3.2.4) because of high variability between \r communities (Harder and Wenzel, 2012; Cochran et al., 2013; Clark \r et al., 2016b; Fall, 2016; Ford et al., 2016; Lavrillier et al., 2016). Longer \r ice-free travel windows in Arctic seas could lower the costs of access \r and development of northern resources (delivering supplies and \r shipping resources to markets) and thus, may contribute to increased \r opportunities for marine shipping, commercial fisheries, tourism \r and resource development (Sections  3.2.4.2,  3.2.4.3) (Ford et al., \r 2012; Huskey et al., 2014; Overland et al., 2017). This has important \r [...]"


id: c98d83123c26c2c1ca43137b2ba49c4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32784
content:
"[...] implications for economic development, particularly in relation to local \r employment opportunities but also raises concerns of detrimental \r impacts on animals, habitat and subsistence activities (Cochran et al., \r 2013; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK),2015)."


id: 82811bff7f794b9c247937d8bd755ae3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20085
content:
"The high seas region of the CAO is per definition outside of any \r nation's EEZ. Recent actions of the international community show \r that a precautionary approach to considerations of CAO fisheries has \r been adopted (high confidence) and that expansion of commercial \r fisheries into the CAO will be constrained until sufficient information is \r obtained to manage the fisheries according to an ecosystem approach \r to fisheries management (high confidence). The Arctic 5  officially \r adopted the precautionary approach to fishing in 2015 by signing the \r Oslo Declaration concerning the prevention of unregulated fishing in \r the CAO. The declaration established a moratorium to limit potential \r expansion of CAO commercial fishing until sufficient information, also \r on climate change impacts, is available to manage it sustainably. The \r Arctic 5 and several other nations subsequently agreed to a treaty \r (the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement) that imposed a 16-year \r [...]"


id: 6e6db0a2446ecadf3394568f75a752e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16690
content:
"In 2009, a new Marine Resources Act entered into force for Norway's \r EEZ. This act applies to all wild living marine resources, and states \r that its purpose is to ensure sustainable and economically profitable \r management of resources. Conservation of biodiversity is described \r as an integral part of its sustainable fisheries management and it is \r mandatory to apply \"an ecosystem approach, taking into account \r habitats and biodiversity\" (Gullestad et al., 2017). In addition \r to national management, the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries \r Commission provides cooperative management of the most important \r fish stocks in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. The stipulation of the \r total quota for the various joint fish stocks is a key element, as is more \r long-term precautionary harvesting strategies, better allowing for \r responses to climate change (medium confidence). A scenario-based \r approach to identify management strategies that are effective under \r [...]"


id: 5ee3076206cbc14adaf83bd6774b8cf7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13991
content:
"[...] changing climate conditions is being explored for the Barents Sea \r (Planque et al., 2019)."


id: 11424ce0784abf4557a4851731fb039a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 229
content:
"In the US Arctic, an adaptive management approach has been \r introduced that utilises future ecological scenarios to develop \r strategies for mitigating the future risks and impacts of climate \r change (NPFMC, 2018). The fisheries of the southeastern Bering Sea \r are managed through a complex suite of regulations that includes \r catch shares (Ono et al., 2017), habitat protections, restrictions \r on forage fish, bycatch constraints (DiCosimo et al., 2015) and \r community development quotas. This intricate regulatory framework \r has inherent risks and benefits to fishers and industry by limiting \r flexibility (Anderson et al., 2017b). To address these challenges, \r the North Pacific Fishery Management Council recently adopted \r a Fishery Ecosystem Plan that includes a multi-model climate change \r action module (Punt et al., 2016; Holsman et al., 2017; Zador et al., \r 2017; Holsman et al., 2019). Despite this complex ecosystem-based \r [...]"


id: a09de9a96edbe931d260349f286de71b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25466
content:
"[...] approach to fisheries management, it may not be possible to prevent \r projected declines of some high value species at high rates of global \r warming (Ianelli et al., 2016)."


id: 70847a03088e884715083252bf6c33aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17054
content:
"Adaptation by subsistence users to climate change falls into several \r categories. In some cases harvesters are shifting the timing of \r harvesting and the selection of harvest areas due to changes in \r seasonality and access to traditional use areas (AMAP, 2017a; \r AMAP, 2017b; AMAP, 2018). Changes in the navigability of rivers \r (i.e., shallower) and more open (i.e., dangerous) seas have resulted in \r harvesters changing harvesting gear, such as shifting from propeller \r to jet-propelled boats or all-terrain vehicles, and to larger ocean-going \r vessels for traditional whaling (Brinkman et al., 2016). In many cases, \r using different gear results in an increase in fuel costs (e.g., jet boats \r are about 30% less efficient). Unsafe ice conditions have resulted in \r greater risks of travel on rivers and the ocean in the frozen months. \r In Savoonga, Alaska, whalers reported limitations in harvesting \r larger bowhead because of thin ice conditions that do not allow for \r [...]"


id: ed30248a11076cc339fdeee8f483c232
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39109
content:
"[...] safe haul outs, and as a result, community residents now anticipate \r a greater dependence on western Alaska's reindeer as a source of \r meat in the future (Rosales and Chapman, 2015). Harvesters have \r also responded with switching of harvested species and in some \r cases doing without (AMAP, 2018). In many cases, adaption has \r allowed for continued provisioning of wildfoods in spite of climate \r change impacts (BurnSilver et al., 2016; AMAP, 2017a; Fauchald et al., \r 2017b) (medium confidence)."


id: 24259cc3477bf8febf4ff34744ced531
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3541
content:
"Indigenous leaders are responding to the risks of climate change by \r engaging in political processes at multiple levels and through different \r venues. However, indigenous involvement in IPCC assessments \r remains limited (Ford et al., 2016). At the United Nations Framework \r Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the discursive space \r for incorporating perspectives of Indigenous peoples on climate \r change adaptation has expanded since 2010, which is reflected in \r texts and engagement with most activity areas (Ford et al., 2015) \r and by the establishment of the Local Communities and Indigenous \r Peoples Platform Facilitative Working Group in December 2018. \r Aleut International Association, Arctic Athabaskan Council, Gwich'in \r Council International, Inuit Circumpolar Council, Russian Association \r of Indigenous Peoples of the North, and the Saami Council, which \r sit as 'Permanent Participants' of the Arctic Council, are involved in \r [...]"


id: c3d0fb577716d1a9a108906e54b903d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31724
content:
"industry to observe non-binding guidelines that provide for herders' \r continued use of traditional migrations routes (Forbes et al., 2015). In \r response to climate change (i.e., icing events and early spring runoffs \r blocking migration), the only way of avoiding high deer mortality is \r to change migration routes or take deer to other pastures. In practice, \r however, the full set of challenges has meant more Yamal herders \r opting out of the traditional collective migration partially or entirely \r to manage their herds privately. The reason to have private herds \r is one of adaptive advantage; smaller, privately owned herds are \r nimbler in the face of rapid changes in land cover and the expansion \r of infrastructure (Forbes, 2013). The same logic has more recently \r been applied by some herders in the wake of recent rain-on-snow \r events (Section 3.4.3.2.2) (Forbes et al., 2016). In all these regions, \r restrictions affecting the movement of reindeer to pastures are \r [...]"


id: a8c8a32fcbe4e519326b4a0285ba222a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26903
content:
"[...] expected to negatively interact with the effects of climate and affect \r the future sustainability of herding systems (high confidence)."


id: 11cf9993f5fa8f177c094bce81d6c493
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 328
content:
"Climate change in some Arctic regions is facilitating easier access \r to natural resources (Section 3.5.2.3), which may generate financial \r capital for Arctic residents and their governments, including \r Indigenous peoples but also greater exposure to risks such as \r oil spills and increases in noise. Receding sea ice and glaciers has \r opened new possibilities for development, such as areas of receding \r glaciers of eastern Greenland (Smits et al., 2017). As mineral \r development commenced in Greenland, its home rule government \r developed environmental impact assessment protocols to provide \r for improved public participation (Forbes et al., 2015). Indigenous \r peoples are considered as non-state actors and in many, but not \r all cases, promote environmental protection in support of the \r sustainability of their traditional livelihoods. This protection is at \r times in opposition to the industrial development business sector, \r [...]"


