# document

id: 804f92734cbd60e6e00c1d52494fa33b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19705
content:
"[...] strategies and interventions; the ability to organise and act collectively; \r learning to recognise and respond to change (especially as important \r thresholds are approached); and the agency to determine whether to \r change or not, and to then take prudent action."


id: 79dd3af2679d6e9544390132551a1c06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18644
content:
"Many C&S, especially in the Global South, already face high exposure \r to coastal risks and development constraints associated with poverty \r and socioeconomic inequality, lack of transparent resource allocation \r mechanisms and low political will (high confidence; Di Giulio et al., \r 2019; Nagy et  al., 2019; Pasquini, 2020; Lehmann et  al., 2021).\r Research from across South America notes inadequate regulatory \r frameworks, missing data and information, widespread coastal \r ecosystem degradation and complex interactions between natural \r disasters and civil conflict (Villamizar et al., 2017; Nagy et al., 2019). \r Coastal climate risks in the Global South are often compounded by \r ongoing land-use management conflicts and other pressures including \r informal land uses, unregulated and/or inadequate infrastructure/\r building development, public health priorities such as combating \r Dengue fever, inadequate income diversification, low education \r [...]"


id: 38fcd6f65880eff31a50747aa73d79be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7230
content:
"[...] levels and political marginalization of communities historically not \r represented in the urban development process (Barbi and Ferreira, \r 2014; Salik et al., 2015; Cabral et al., 2017; Goh, 2019). There are also \r entrenched socioeconomic inequalities leading to the maldistribution "


id: ad4758082fca8fbee9416a4741d9f8dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27725
content:
"high confidence; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Magnan et al., \r 2019; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). Unlocking potential enablers for \r locally appropriate and effective adaptation is difficult because many \r drivers and root causes of coastal risk are historically and institutionally \r embedded (high confidence; Thomas et al., 2019). Charting credible, \r salient and legitimate adaptation pathways is consequently a struggle \r in reconciling divergent worldviews, values and interests (Sovacool, \r 2018; Mendenhall et al., 2020; Bowden et al., 2021a; Bowden et al., \r 2021b). Unlocking the productive potential of conflict is foundational \r for transitioning towards pathways that foster CRD (high confidence; \r Abrahams and Carr, 2017; Harris et al., 2018; Sharifi, 2020). But this \r can be especially challenging for low-lying coastal C&S characterised \r by degraded coastal ecosystems susceptible to climate change impacts \r as well as pronounced inequity and governance constraints (high \r [...]"


id: 3b07bfc44f587adf7fa3695a4f89c516
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7575
content:
"The law is key to governing climate risks in C&S, including regulating \r exposure to coastal hazards; facilitating accountable decision-making; \r funding arrangements, liabilities and resolving disputes; and also for \r securing human rights (high confidence; Setzer and Vanhala, 2019; \r Averill, 2020). However, it has limits and can be both an adaptation \r enabler and barrier (Green et  al., 2015; Cosens et  al., 2017; Craig \r et al., 2017; DeCaro et al., 2017). Contemporary legal practice has not \r enabled effective adaptation in part because SLR affects compensable \r property rights that are secured by the law, and which generally trump \r concerns about public safety, resilience and sustainability (Reiblich \r et  al., 2019). Private property rights can be used as both a sword \r and a shield to privilege dominant interests by undermining land \r use policies, plans and implementation efforts intended to promote \r integrated coastal management and risk reduction (O'Donnell et al., \r [...]"


id: cf3c4661317a9fb624b6f2aa71a34b32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33809
content:
"[...] 2019; Reiblich et al., 2019). Climate change litigation has proliferated \r over the past decade (Setzer and Vanhala, 2019), addressing, among \r other things, failures to prepare for or adapt to climate change, and to \r secure human rights (Peel and Osofsky, 2018). Reflexive and adaptive \r law that accounts for the distinctive features of coastal hazard risk \r and associated governance imperatives builds coastal C&S adaptive \r capacity and resilience (high confidence; Garmestani and Benson, \r 2013; Cosens et  al., 2017; DeCaro et  al., 2017). Procedural justice, \r due process and use of substantive standards instead of rules provide \r legal stability and enable adaptation (Craig et  al., 2017). Coastal \r adaptation efforts are ultimately implemented through C&S actions \r that are enabled or constrained by prevailing legislative, executive \r and judicial provisions and practices, which differ significantly across \r [...]"


id: 7753ac8904dc8a4d0bbf627be3ebed0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 18200
content:
"[...] jurisdictions (He, 2018). In practice, the 'coastal lawscape' is made up \r of interconnected cultural normative, political and legal systems that \r need to be understood holistically to enable coastal adaptation in C&S \r (O'Donnell, 2021)."


id: d119e833a033516a0f232392fe94a845
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34139
content:
"This cross-chapter paper shows that a range of adaptation solutions, \r hard and soft protection, nature-based measures, accommodate, \r advance, retreat and behavioural change will need to be implemented \r as an integrated and sequenced portfolio of responses if coastal C&S \r are to contain the adverse risks of climate change (high confidence). \r The effectiveness and feasibility of any intervention--at any given \r moment--to reduce a particular climate-compounded coastal \r hazard risk or combination of risks depend upon the settlement \r archetype, including its geomorphological, cultural, economic, \r technical, institutional and political features, as well as on its historical \r development trajectory. Coastal C&S will benefit from developing \r flexible adaptation pathways--sequences of adaptation strategies \r and intervention options--to navigate a dynamic solution space that \r changes in response to climate and other drivers of change, and is \r [...]"


id: ddaaa7b45a93b906f4a850e39b42fb7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"[...] also shaped by human development choices and socioeconomic, \r technological and institutional change."


id: dddd8e264f84103c9b074b074d4d3c82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Coastal cities and settlements (C&S) are on the frontline of the climate change challenge. They are the interface of three interconnected \r realities. First, they are critical nodes of global trade, economic activity and coast-dependent livelihoods, all of which are highly and increasingly \r exposed to climate- and ocean-driven hazards (FAQ CCP2.1). Second, coastal C&S are also sites where some of the most pressing development \r challenges are at play (e.g., trade-offs between expanding critical built infrastructure while protecting coastal ecosystems, high economic \r growth coupled with high inequality in some coastal megacities). Third, coastal C&S are also centres of innovation and creativity, thus presenting \r a tremendous opportunity for climate action through a range of infrastructural, nature-based, institutional and behavioural solutions (FAQ \r [...]"


id: 259e198c5e865d31fe7a5657fc29bac4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
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content:
"[...] CCP2.2). Given these three realities of high climate change risks, rapid but contested and unequal development trajectories, and high potential \r for innovative climate action, C&S are key to charting pathways for climate resilient development (CRD)."


id: 6a7eb88c1d7e14c09ad78e3e68fd909b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16019
content:
"Three key levers can enable pathways that are climate resilient and meet goals of inclusive, sustainable development. \r One key enabler involves flexible, proactive, and transparent governance systems, built on a bedrock of accountable \r local leadership, evidence-based decision-making--even under uncertainty--and inclusive institutions that consider \r different stakeholder voices and knowledge systems. Another key enabler is acknowledging the sociocultural and \r psychological barriers to climate action and incentivising people to change to lifestyles and behaviours that are \r pro-climate and aligned with community-oriented values and norms. In practice, coastal C&S are experimenting \r with different strategies to change practices and behaviours, such as using subsidies and zoning policies, tax rebates \r and public awareness campaigns to promote individual and collective action. Finally, enabling CRD needs dedicated \r [...]"


id: 66463177e206788ec854a0dcfdf193a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15258
content:
"[...] short- and long-term financing to reorient current trajectories of unsustainable and unequal development towards \r climate mitigation and adaptation action that reduces current and predicted losses and damages, especially in \r highly vulnerable coasts such as the small island states, the Arctic and low-lying C&S. Currently, adaptation finance \r is concentrated in coastal megacities and tends to be deployed for risk-proofing high-value waterfront properties \r or key infrastructures. Addressing these financial imbalances (globally, regionally and sub-nationally) remains a \r critical barrier to inclusive climate resilient coastal development."


id: 1652133c8d224b77b846bc897c201d48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1143
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"The impacts of climate change have affected the ecosystem \r services that humans can harness from drylands, with largely \r negative implications for livelihoods, human health and well\u0002being, particularly in deserts and semiarid areas with lower \r adaptive capacities (high confidence). Ecosystem degradation \r (Section  16.5.2.3.2) and desertification threaten the abilities of \r both natural and human systems to adapt to climate change (high \r confidence). Changes in desert and semiarid ecosystem services \r most acutely affect people who are directly dependent on natural \r resources for their livelihoods and survival. These groups also often \r have lower capacities to adapt, particularly given structural limitations \r of some drylands where healthcare, sanitation, infrastructure and \r efficient markets are lacking, reinforcing existing inequalities (high \r confidence). In rural drylands in tropical and Mediterranean areas, \r [...]"


id: 9a6ed99692a74fba03c441b01c2b1178
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] human populations are steadily expanding with mixed implications \r for ecosystem services under climate change, while rapid urbanisation \r in new and existing dryland megacities puts additional pressure on \r water ecosystem services (high confidence). Impacts resulting from \r consumption of dryland ecosystem services elsewhere, alongside other \r teleconnections associated with health, trade, conflict and migration, \r mean that dryland adaptive capacities have far reaching implications \r for other locations, while other locations affect dryland adaptation \r options. {3.1.1, 3.2.1, 3.2.2, 3.4}."


id: 95ce0154b2d190c0b7725fa464416b7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"Where are we now: Observed impacts and adaptation responses\r Deserts and semiarid areas have already been affected by \r climate change, with some areas experiencing increases in \r aridity. Mixed trends of decreases and increases in vegetation \r productivity have been observed, depending on the time period, \r geographic region, detection methods used and vegetation type \r under consideration (high confidence1\r ). These changes have \r had varying and location-specific impacts on biodiversity, and \r have altered ecosystem carbon balance, water availability and \r the provision of ecosystem services (high confidence). There is \r no evidence, however, of a global trend in dryland expansion \r based on analyses of vegetation patterns, precipitation and soil \r moisture, with overall, more greening than drying in drylands \r since the 1980s (medium confidence). Deserts and semiarid areas \r host unique biodiversity, rich cultural heritage and provide globally \r [...]"


id: 615631b3c7a06bcce5126d12feb67126
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] valuable ecosystem services. They are also highly vulnerable to climate \r change. The vitality of natural ecosystems in arid and semiarid regions \r greatly depends on water availability, as they are highly sensitive to \r changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well \r as to land management practices. Multiple lines of evidence from \r 1920-2015 indicate that surface warming of 1.2deg\r C-1.3degC over global \r drylands (Section 1.1.1) exceeded the 0.8deg\r C-1.0degC warming over humid \r lands. From 1982 to 2015, unsustainable land use and climate change \r combined caused desertification of 6% of the global dryland area, \r while 41% showed significant increases in vegetation productivity \r (greening) and 53% of the area had no notable change, although \r greening rates are slowing or declining in some locations. Greening \r may cause biodiversity loss and ecosystem service degradation in \r relation to livelihood systems. Observed trends in deserts and semiarid \r [...]"


id: 3bb2b203e39bfe93f69369459508afc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] areas have led to varying impacts on flora, fauna, soil, nutrient cycling, \r the carbon cycle and water resources. Ecological changes in dryland \r ecosystems detected and attributed primarily to climate change \r include tree mortality and losses of mesic tree species at specific sites \r in the African Sahel, particularly during the droughts of the 1970s \r and 1980s, and in North Africa from 1970 to 2007; and losses of bird \r species in the Mojave Desert of North America from 1908 to 2016. In \r contrast, growth in herbaceous vegetation production has increased "


id: 8974cb69840e07cb05651b2d9234b95f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Some drylands will expand by 2100, while others will shrink \r (high confidence). Climate change affects drylands through \r increased temperatures and more irregular rainfall, with \r important differences between areas with different rainfall \r distributions linked to the dominant climate systems in each \r location. Projections are nevertheless uncertain and not well \r supported by observed trends, while different methodological \r approaches and indices exhibit different strengths and \r weaknesses (medium confidence). A fundamental methodological \r challenge is how to attribute projected impacts to climate change \r when background climate variability in drylands is so high. Some \r projections show aridity (as measured by the Aridity Index, AI) to \r expand substantially on all continents, except Antarctica. Expansion \r of arid regions is probable in southwest North America, the northern \r fringe of Africa, southern Africa and Australia. The main areas of \r semiarid expansion are likely2\r [...]"


id: 8de78e0ed193f6f7cac4f9e093cfaf5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...]  to occur on the north side of the \r Mediterranean, southern Africa and North and South America. India, "


id: 18749375391954887a25d8a3e7904018
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"parts of northern China, eastern equatorial Africa and the southern \r Saharan regions are projected to have shrinking drylands. Under \r Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, aridity zones could \r expand by one-quarter of the 1990 area by 2100, increasing to over \r half the global terrestrial area. Lower greenhouse gas emissions, \r under RCP4.5, could limit expansion to one-tenth of the 1990 area by \r 2100. Nevertheless, the utility of the AI in delineating dryland biomes \r is limited under an increasing CO2 environment (medium confidence) \r and how well the index fits observed trends has been questioned \r in recent research. The impacts of climate change on sand and dust \r storm activity are projected to be substantial, however, there is large \r regional variability in terms of rainfall seasonality, land management \r practices and differences in rates of change and the scales at which \r the projections are undertaken. The characteristics and speed of \r [...]"


id: 9e851d8e96015df20a92a85ddaf8f7b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] human responses and adaptations also affect future risks and impacts \r (high confidence). Increased temperature and rainfall variability will \r significantly change the interannual variability in the global carbon \r cycle, which is strongly influenced by the world's drylands and the \r ways they are managed (medium confidence). Increased variability of \r precipitation would generally contribute to increased vulnerability for \r people in drylands, intensifying the challenges that people living in \r deserts and semiarid areas will face for their sustainable development \r (medium confidence). {3.3.1, 3.3.2}"


id: 5b37c8904d752ed8de3c375ab2ec1bac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Drivers of desert expansion and greening are numerous, are \r attributed to environmental and human processes and differ \r across dryland types, yet a suite of adaptations can help to \r address human drivers of change, support resilience and build \r the adaptive capacity of dryland people (medium confidence).\r Deserts and semiarid areas have a rich cultural heritage, and Indigenous \r knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) which enrich and influence \r sustainability and land use globally. Growing research evidence and \r experience highlight the necessary features of an enabling environment \r for dryland adaptation (Section 8.5.2). Key enablers include supportive \r policies, institutions and governance approaches that strengthen the \r adaptive capacities of dryland farmers, pastoralists and other dryland \r resource users (high confidence), addressing drivers (proximate and \r underlying) as well as symptoms of desertification. For instance, the \r [...]"


id: 377ff783aab35f31b413684d91db04ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 6976
content:
"[...] skills and capacities held by the mobile and adaptive approach of \r pastoralists may provide lessons for society at large in adapting to \r climate change and dealing with increased uncertainty. Such a policy \r would stand in contrast to previous attempts at settling pastoralists. \r There is a persistent gap in terms of scaling-up already known good \r practices, combining nature-based, land-based and ecosystem\u0002based approaches that facilitate sustainable land management, with \r contextually appropriate and responsible governance systems (e.g., \r including those supporting communal land tenure arrangements \r and IKLK; medium confidence). Land-based adaptations can help \r manage dryland changes, including sand and dust storms and \r desertification (high confidence), while technological options linked \r to water management draw from both traditional practices and \r new innovations. Adequate financing and investment is required to "


id: ecf3ab585e75776b859d0631d8cfce29
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"Deserts and semiarid areas are in 'drylands', which comprise hyper\u0002arid, arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas (Figure CCP3.1). Drylands \r cover about 45-47% of the global land area (Pravalie, 2016; Koutroulis, \r 2019) and are home to about 3  billion people residing primarily in \r semiarid and dry sub-humid areas (van der Esch et al., 2017). Drylands \r host unique, rich biodiversity (Maestre et  al., 2015) and provide \r important ecosystem services (Bidak et  al., 2015; Lu et  al., 2018), \r while dryland people have a rich cultural and historical heritage. Rural \r human populations are growing in some Mediterranean and tropical \r drylands, while many are rapidly urbanising (Guengant Jean-Pierre, \r 2003; Tabutin and Schoumaker, 2004; Denis and Moriconi-Ebrard, \r 2009), with varying impacts on ecosystem services and adaptive \r capacities. In recent decades, 6% of global megacities have been \r established in arid areas and 2% in hyper-arid desert areas (Cherlet \r [...]"


id: 41c51b922092030e6f831eee8fde558a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8767
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"[...] et  al., 2018), with many of these areas suffering from severe water \r security challenges (Stringer et al., 2021). Dryland inhabitants in many \r developing countries are also experiencing poverty (Section 16.1.4.3), \r hunger, poor health, land degradation, and economic and political \r marginalisation (Mbow et  al., 2019; Mirzabaev et  al., 2019), which \r sometimes limits their access to common pool resources. These \r challenges, together with a weak enabling environment, threaten \r opportunities to adapt to climate change."


id: 827e0dea5e41e6685c8c7e1ba7b54897
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20080
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"Chapter 3 of the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land \r (SRCCL) focused on desertification (Mirzabaev et al., 2019), but links \r between climate change and deserts, desertification and semiarid \r areas have not been extensively considered in recent IPCC assessment \r cycles. Working Group II Assessment Report 5 noted that desertification \r contributes to atmospheric dust production, identifying desertification \r as needing consideration within climate change mitigation and \r adaptation governance and decision making (Boucher et  al., 2013; \r Myhre et al., 2013). This cross-chapter paper focuses on environmental \r and human aspects, finding that climate change impacts will intensify \r the challenges faced by dryland populations in advancing sustainable \r development. However, viable options exist for adapting to climate \r change, reducing desertification and supporting progress towards \r the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly by combining \r [...]"


id: 3f944a70762fee188f8d1de1d7f00642
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 8374
content:
"[...] modern science, IKLK, and livelihood and land management strategies \r that enable land-based adaptation, mitigation and nature-based \r solutions (Section 16.3.2.3)."


id: e99e655dd9134d7e9fb2ba4d5933dab5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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vector_id: 38453
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"The terms 'desert' and 'desertification' are subject to various \r interpretations due to the diverse components, processes and states \r they denote. Recognising 'land degradation' as a contested and \r perceptual term (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Behnke and Mortimore, \r 2016; Robbins, 2020), this cross-chapter paper (CCP), defines land \r degradation as 'a negative trend in land condition, caused by direct \r or indirect human-induced processes including climate change, \r expressed as long-term reduction or loss of at least one of the \r following: biological productivity, ecological integrity or value to \r humans' (Olsson et al., 2019). Desertification is land degradation in \r arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas (UNCCD, 1994). Following the \r above definitions, desertification is more common in arid and semiarid \r climates than in hyper-arid climates. When desertification does occur \r in arid and hyper-arid ecosystems it is often in oases and irrigated \r [...]"


id: b1883a20cadc6b841f1afcf50f7e4d0e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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"[...] cultivated lands (Ezcurra, 2006; Dilshat et al., 2015). Hyper-arid areas, \r except wetlands such as oases, wadis and riverbanks, are excluded \r in the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) \r definition of desertification used here, yet many of the world's deserts \r are in hyper-arid areas. Hyper-arid areas are therefore included when \r discussing deserts but not when discussing desertification. Deserts \r are not the end point in a desertification process (Ezcurra, 2006). \r There is robust evidence of desertification in deserts, mostly driven by \r human activities and climate variability, expressed as loss of biological \r productivity, ecological integrity or value to humans to below their \r natural levels (Moridnejad et al., 2015)."


id: c1f9e5da4b9249ea1d3457682c397d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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content:
"Figure CCP3.1 |  Aridity zone extent and observed changes in dryland areas as defined by the Aridity Index (AI). Aridity zones, according to UNESCO (1979) and \r UNEP (1992) classifications, defined by the AI, consider the ratio of average annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration: (i) dry sub-humid (0.5 <= AI < 0.65), (ii) semiarid \r (0.2 <= AI < 0.5), (iii) arid (0.05 <= AI < 0.2) and (iv) hyper-arid (AI <0.05). Drylands include land with AI <0.65, humid lands are those with AI >0.65 (UNEP, 1992). Deserts represent \r a major part of the hyper-arid and arid zones. The aridity zones are shown for climate in the period 1988-2017 and changes in dryland area (combined area of four aridity zones) \r are shown between the periods 1901-1930 and 1988-2017, based on climate time series at 50 km spatial resolution (Harris et al., 2020). The AI has various limitations in assessing \r [...]"


id: 95bff7c31d9c55d0d7d88461961812df
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23539
content:
"[...] dryland expansion and different indices highlight different areas and different changes. This is known as the aridity paradox (Greve et al., 2019). See SRCCL Section 3.2.1 (Mirzabaev \r et al., 2019) for an in-depth analysis of limitations, and Stringer et al. (2021) for a summary of different measures and indices used in the literature."


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content:
"and the role of climate change and non-climatic factors in causing \r these changes).\r Increases in shrub cover in arid deserts and shrublands have been \r recorded in the North American drylands (Caracciolo et  al., 2016; \r Archer et al., 2017; Chambers et al., 2019), the Namib desert (Rohde \r et al., 2019), the Karoo (Ward et al., 2014; Masubelele et al., 2015b), \r north and central Mexico (Perez-Sanchez et al., 2011; Baez et al., 2013; \r Castillon et al., 2015; Sosa et al., 2019), large parts of the West African \r Sahel with some local exceptions (Brandt et al., 2016) and Central Asia \r (Jia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2015; Deng et al., 2016; Jiao et al., 2016; Wang \r et al., 2016). Increasing woodiness in the Namib is consistent with an \r increase in rainfall extremes and westward expansion of convective \r rainfall (Haensler et al., 2010; Rohde et al., 2019). Increasing rainfall \r and rising CO2 concentrations (which improves water use efficiency) \r [...]"


id: 5d15079375a37f0f673f4b95bca90541
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13645
content:
"[...] benefits some shrubs (Polley et al., 1997; Morgan et al., 2004; Donohue \r et al., 2013). Together with changes in land use (Hoffman et al., 2018), \r improved land management (Reij et al., 2005) and improved irrigation \r (He et al., 2019), this contributes to woody cover increases. Extensive \r woody encroachment has been recorded in savannas (measured \r between 1920-2015, over the past century) in Africa (2.4% woody \r cover increase per decade), Australia (1% increase per decade), and \r South America (8% increase per decade) (O'Connor et al., 2014; Stevens \r et  al., 2016; Skowno et  al., 2017; Venter et  al., 2018; Zhang et  al., \r 2019). Following drought in the Sahel (1968-1973 and 1982-1984), \r a rainfall increase since the mid-1990s has been linked to increases of \r woody cover between 1992-2011/2012 (Brandt et al., 2016; Brandt \r et  al., 2017; Brandt et  al., 2019). See SRCCL Section  3.2.1.1 for an \r evaluation of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and \r [...]"


id: c312aa8f09a0941673a35748bd584c27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31595
content:
"[...] remote sensing approaches used in these studies. Tree regeneration by \r farmers has also increased woody cover, particularly next to villages \r (high confidence) (Reij et  al., 2005; Reij and Garrity, 2016; Brandt \r et al., 2018). Otherwise, savanna encroachment has been attributed \r to combinations of increased rainfall (Venter et al., 2018; Zhang et al., \r 2019), warming (Venter et al., 2018) and CO2 fertilization (Kgope et al., \r 2010; Bond and Midgley, 2012; Buitenwerf et al., 2012; Stevens et al., \r 2016; Quirk et al., 2019) interacting with changing land use (Archer \r et al., 2017; Venter et al., 2018), where herbivory and fire regimes are \r altered (O'Connor et al., 2014; Archer et al., 2017; see also discussion \r on fire and herbivory in Section 2.4.3.1). In some cases, woody increase \r has been balanced locally by changes in runoff (Trichon et al., 2018) or \r by land clearing and fuel wood harvesting, as seen in western Niger, \r [...]"


id: 73b8c249c41756bce2c89a757904d61b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17609
content:
"[...] northern Nigeria, and at the periphery of major towns (Montagne \r et al., 2016).\r CCP3.2.1.5 Tree Death and Woody Cover Decline"


id: 491aa70a573c544f05b0a69f2e26c3f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10083
content:
"Semiarid ecosystems have a disproportionately large role in the global \r carbon cycle, driving trends and interannual variability of the global \r carbon sink (Alstrom et al., 2015). These systems are highly sensitive \r to annual precipitation and temperature variations (high confidence) \r (Alstrom et al., 2015, Poulter et al., 2014). The positive trend in semiarid \r regions is consistent with widespread woody encroachment and \r increased vegetation greenness (Andela et al., 2013; Piao et al., 2019; \r Piao et al., 2020) driven by CO2 fertilization and rainfall increases (Sitch \r et al., 2015; Piao et al., 2020), although some trends are complicated \r by irrigation practices (He et al., 2019). Increases in temperature and \r drought diminish this trend through reduced vegetation productivity \r and increased vegetation mortality (Brandt et al., 2016; Ma et al., 2016; \r Fernandez-Martinez et al., 2019; Maurer et al., 2020) with indications \r [...]"


id: aada467c3d6aa0e9dbfbdbb5b71371b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27285
content:
"[...] that this trend is declining or reversing in some locations (Yuan et al., \r 2019; Wang et al., 2020)."


id: 5f8408fdd8331005e098e4b4017181a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14113
content:
"Changed climates have increased water constraints of vegetation \r growth most notably in the Mediterranean (Sections CCP1.2.3.2; \r CCP4.2.1) and West and Central Asia (Jiao et al., 2021). Climate change \r and elevated CO2 have both increased and decreased vegetation \r sensitivity to rainfall throughout drylands, with the degree of variation \r shaped by region, land use and vegetation traits (Haverd et al., 2017; \r Abel et al., 2021). Mineral nitrogen production in drylands may become \r increasingly decoupled from consumption by plants over prolonged \r dry periods, and more extreme hydrological events can drive multiple \r changes to nutrient cycling (Manzoni et  al., 2019). Soil biocrusts \r (composed of lichens, bryophytes and soil microorganisms), which \r contribute to dryland ecosystem function, including carbon uptake \r and soil stabilisation (Reed et al., 2019), are sensitive to warming and \r altered rainfall in a shift in biocrust communities of mosses and lichens \r [...]"


id: fb2d187fc1ffb03f9c612e5a47428e8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41563
content:
"[...] in favour of early successional cyanobacteria-dominated biocrusts \r (Escolar et  al., 2012; Reed et  al., 2012), which can increase surface \r albedo (Rutherford et al., 2017)."


id: c038891456e2ca248f5eb92249bacafa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31118
content:
"Changes in aridity (Rudgers et al., 2018) have caused some expansion \r of dominant grasses (often invasive) into desert shrublands. The \r spread of invasive Bromus tectorum may be enhanced by altered \r precipitation and freeze-thaw cycles (low confidence) (Collins \r and Xia, 2015; Rudgers et al., 2018). Arid grassland has expanded \r (between 10-100 km) into the eastern Karoo, South Africa (high \r confidence) (du Toit et al., 2015; Masubelele et al., 2015a; 2015b). \r Observations from 100-year-old grazing trials demonstrate that the \r increase in grassiness is a product of shift in rainfall seasonality and \r an increase in rainfall (Du Toit and O'Connor, 2014; du Toit et  al., \r 2015; 2018; Masubelele et  al., 2015a;, 2015b). These changes are \r causing an increase in fire frequency in these seldom burnt areas (du \r Toit et al., 2015). The Sahara was suggested to have expanded 10% \r from 1902 to 2013 (Thomas and Nigam, 2018), although herbaceous \r [...]"


id: e165964edb26d1e9ce6cdf1c97a4f743
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36921
content:
"[...] vegetation production has increased in general in the Sahel since \r the dry 1980s (Eklundh and Olsson, 2003; Anyamba and Tucker, \r 2005; Herrmann et al., 2005; Hutchinson et al., 2005; Olsson et al., "


id: e2dd1d3a454f8c4c3cacb0c362c319f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37210
content:
"changes in circulation strength of the Indian summer monsoon since \r 2002 have led to a substantial reduction of dust in the Thar Desert and \r surrounding region, showing agreement with findings from the Sahel \r and the West African Monsoon (Kergoat et  al., 2017). A decreasing \r trend in the number and intensity of SDS in spring (2007-2016) in \r East Asia has also responded to higher precipitation and soil moisture, \r related to a decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex, favouring \r higher vegetation cover during the period studied (An et al., 2018). \r Global climate change, transboundary movement of aeolian material \r by atmospheric flows from Central Asia, dynamics of the Caspian Sea \r regime, erosion, salinisation and the loss of land as a result of the \r placement of industrial facilities have expanded the land area prone \r to desertification in Russia. Desertification has been observed to some \r extent in 27 sub-regions of the Russian Federation on territory of more \r [...]"


id: bba61da769fb1169a3e40763f185db9b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30238
content:
"[...] than 100 million hectares (Kust et al., 2011; also recently confirmed by \r National Report, 2019). Eastern and south-eastern regions of Kalmykia, \r Russia, serve as dust sources, while dust and sand masses from areas \r of the Black Land sometimes move far beyond to parts of Rostov, \r Astrakhan, Volgograd and Stavropol regions. Agricultural land in these \r areas can become covered with dust and sand 10 cm or more thick, \r with negative impacts on yields (Tsymbarovich et al., 2020). High dust \r day frequency is also occurring in the High Latitude Dust (HLD) source \r areas not reported in Figure  CCP3.2, such as in Iceland, Patagonia, \r Canada, Alaska and, based on in situ measurements, in Antarctica \r (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2014; Bullard et al., 2016; Dagsson\u0002Waldhauserova and Meinander, 2019; Bachelder et al., 2020). Active \r HLD sources cover at least 500,000 km2\r  and produce at least 5% of \r global dust budget (Bullard et al., 2016). HLD has negative impacts on \r [...]"


id: 3ad321d0a7ce2bc6831ecd9874761284
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7546
content:
"[...] the cryosphere via albedo changes and snow/ice melting (Boy, 2019; \r Dagsson-Waldhauserova and Meinander, 2019)."


id: 878f0f0186201ded290ff96fdb894ac0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21007
content:
"Desertification and SDS can cause substantial socioeconomic damage \r in drylands (UNEP, 1992; Opp et  al., 2021) over both the short and \r long term. Short-term impacts occur on health, food production \r systems, infrastructure (damaging buildings, energy systems and \r communications), transport and related economic productivity, air \r and road traffic, and costs incurred in clearing sand and dust from \r deposition areas (Mirzabaev et al., 2019). In the Arab region increasing \r frequency of SDS events is projected to further exacerbate water \r scarcity and drought (ESCWA, 2017). Longer-term costs include loss of \r ecosystem services, biodiversity and habitat, chronic health problems, \r soil erosion and reduced soil quality (particularly through nutrient \r losses and deposition of pollutants), and disruption of global climate \r regulation (Middleton, 2018; Allahbakhshi et al., 2019). Dust deposition \r nevertheless can offer environmental and economic benefits, bringing \r [...]"


id: ca6471f0d7b7a31607da6f7dbaeb04fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32949
content:
"[...] important nutrients that improve and sustain soil fertility (Marticorena \r et al., 2017). Preventing and reducing SDS entails upfront investment \r costs but full benefit-cost analyses of different measures compared \r to the costs of inaction are scarce and need to consider the likely \r frequency and magnitude of SDS events (Tozer and Leys, 2013)."


id: 4264214813818473a541acb2bba20fac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8877
content:
"The potential impacts of climate change, recurrent droughts and \r desertification on human health in drylands include: higher risks from \r water scarcity (linked to deteriorating surface and ground water quality \r and water-borne diseases; Stringer et al., 2021), food insecurity and \r malnutrition (Section  16.2.3.4) in the absence of sufficient imports, \r respiratory, cardiovascular and infectious diseases caused by SDS \r (Mirzabaev et  al., 2019), potential displacement and migration and \r mental health consequences (Chapter 7; Stringer et al., 2021) and heat \r stress (Dunne et al., 2013; Zhao et al., 2015; Russo et al., 2016). SDS \r negatively impact human health through various pathways, causing \r respiratory, cardiovascular diseases and facilitating infections (high \r confidence) (Diaz et al., 2017; Goudarzi et al., 2017; Allahbakhshi et al., \r 2019; Munzel et al., 2019). SDS can cause mortality and injuries related \r [...]"


id: 656df6e4adcc48bc10f5542f31ad592f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15112
content:
"[...] to transport accidents (Goudie, 2014). Research from China suggests \r that prenatal exposure to SDS can affect children's cognitive function \r (Li et  al., 2018). The pollutants that are entrained and ingested or \r inhaled closely link to the land management strategies in source areas."


id: e039487072fde9d5ff144eb7239bf2ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36698
content:
"Climate change and desertification have been linked to water loss \r (Bayram and Ozturk, 2014; Schwilch et  al., 2014; Mohamed et  al., \r 2016), decreases in water quantity for irrigation and contamination \r of surface water bodies (Middleton, 2017). Increased runoff in areas \r in the Sahel with shallow soils increased water flows to lakes and \r the recharge of water tables (Favreau et  al., 2009; Gardelle et  al., \r 2010; Descroix et  al., 2013; Kaptue et  al., 2015; Gal et  al., 2017). \r Water scarcity (Section  16.5.2.3.7) was among the first impacts \r of climate change recognised in North African countries such as \r Morocco which have extensive dryland areas, with countries such as \r Turkey, Libya, USA and China carrying out large-scale water transfer \r projects (Sternberg, 2016; Stringer et al., 2021). The decrease in water \r availability in Morocco was substantial in terms of both surface water \r supply (Rochdane et al., 2012; Choukri et al., 2020) and groundwater \r [...]"


id: cd1cbb2e7f400f7ede8763b0b3356e2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33422
content:
"Rising temperatures, variation in rainfall patterns and frequent extreme \r weather events associated with climate change have adversely \r affected agro-ecological food systems and pastoral systems in some \r drylands (Zhu et al., 2013; Amin et al., 2018), especially in developing \r countries (Haider and Adnan, 2014; Ahmed et  al., 2016; ur Rahman \r et  al., 2018) where desertification is a key challenge to agricultural \r livelihoods. Recurrent droughts in recent decades, coupled with wind \r erosion (particularly of fine sediment which gives soil its water-holding \r capacity and nutrients), affected vast areas in Argentina, leading to land \r abandonment and agricultural fields being covered by sand and invasive \r plants (Abraham et al., 2016). Temperature increases have contributed \r to reduced wheat yields in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid zones of \r Pakistan (Sultana et al., 2019). Agricultural production in the drylands \r [...]"


id: 6b1569279cd30f2d2faad4d838f779d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16135
content:
"[...] of South Punjab is experiencing irreversible impacts since the grain \r formation phase has become swifter with a warmer climate, leading to \r improper growth and reduced yields (Rasul et al., 2011)."


id: 41845bc6846d8be5af2cd8542583f6ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8716
content:
"Aslam et  al. (2018) regard climate change impacts as particularly \r threatening to the livestock sector, water and food security, and \r the economy beyond agriculture in South Punjab, particularly as \r yields decrease. In the livestock sector across global drylands (WGI \r TS.4.3.2.10), observed impacts include reduction of plant cover in \r rangelands, reduced livestock and crop yields, loss of biodiversity \r and increased land degradation and soil nutrient loss (Van de Steeg, \r 2012; Mganga et al., 2015; Ahmed et al., 2016; Mohamed et al., 2016; \r Eldridge and Beecham, 2018, Arias et  al., 2021), as well as injury \r and livestock death due to SDS. This is particularly worrisome for \r traditional pastoralists who find themselves with fewer safety nets \r and more limited adaptive capacities than in the past, particularly \r where mobility, access and tenure rights are becoming restricted \r (Box CCP3.1) and where use of technologies such as mobile phones \r [...]"


id: acc92f8eeb77e2ab9ad62444dc708e03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:01
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27640
content:
"[...] can result in mixed effects, as found in Morocco (Vidal-Gonzalez and \r Nahhass, 2018). Observed SDS impacts can increase food production \r costs and threaten sustainability more generally (Middleton, 2017)."


id: c71303e69b79291af36c325227836cd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32344
content:
"CCP3.3.1.3 Aridity\r Studies based on the AI (the ratio of annual potential evapotranspiration \r to precipitation), almost always project conditions of increasing aridity \r under climate change, and associated widespread expansion of drylands \r (Huang et  al., 2016). The limitations of the AI are widely reported \r (Mirzabaev et al., 2019), with alternative indices that consider different \r variables, including the Ecohydrological Index, PDSI, Standardised \r Precipitation Index and SPEI (Stringer et  al., 2021). AI projections \r indicate potentially severe aridification in the Amazon, Australia, Chile, \r the Mediterranean region, northern, southern and western Africa, \r southwestern USA and South America (medium confidence) (Feng and \r Fu, 2013; Greve and Seneviratne, 2015; Jones and Gutzler, 2016; Park \r et al., 2018). However, the AI does not incorporate potential changes to \r plant transpiration under increasing CO2 concentration and therefore \r [...]"


id: ce5249d3f79ee9e1bf6d8d4427f5c07b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33636
content:
"[...] overestimates drought conditions and aridity. Additionally, it does not \r reflect seasonality in rainfall and evapotranspiration, which is important \r in regions where temperature and actual evapotranspiration are not \r increasing during the wet season when vegetation growth is occurring. \r Mirzabaev et al. (2019) concluded that while aridity will increase in \r some places (high confidence), there is insufficient evidence to suggest \r a global change in dryland aridity (medium confidence). Nevertheless, \r a comparison of several metrics of aridity showed aridity increases for \r several hotspots such as the Mediterranean region and South Africa \r (Greve et  al., 2019). Under RCP8.5, aridity zones could expand by \r one-quarter of the 1990 area by 2100, increasing to over half of the \r global terrestrial area (Huang et al., 2016; Lickley and Solomon, 2018). \r Lower greenhouse gas emissions, under RCP4.5, could limit expansion \r [...]"


id: 5f55371e8594b548670b156dafb8300
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14079
content:
"[...] to one-tenth of the 1990 area by 2100 (Huang et al., 2016). Aridity \r could expand substantially on all continents except Antarctica (Huang \r et  al., 2016), with expansion first manifesting in the Mediterranean \r region, southern Africa, southern South America and western Australia \r (Lickley and Solomon, 2018). In the Northern Hemisphere, aridity zones \r could expand poleward as much as 11deg latitude (Rajaud and Noblet\u0002Ducoudre, 2017). By 2100, the population of dryland areas could \r increase by 700  million people and, under RCP8.5, 3  billion people \r might live in areas with a 25% or greater increase in aridity (Lickley \r and Solomon, 2018). Many studies point to an increasing dryland area \r based on the AI, but there is low agreement on the actual amount \r and area of change (Feng and Fu, 2013; Scheff and Frierson, 2015; \r Huang et al., 2017). The inconsistency between studies is largely due \r to the substantial internal climate variability in regional precipitation. \r [...]"


id: b5ad4456172e611982865d995078b87c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29189
content:
"[...] Changes in annual precipitation have been shown to range from -30% \r to 25% over drylands. Consistent changes in precipitation are only \r found at high latitudes, while total PET is projected to increase over \r most land areas (Feng and Fu, 2013). This leads to more consistent, \r widespread drying in the tropics, subtropics and mid-latitudes in most \r models (Feng and Fu, 2013; Cook et  al., 2014; Scheff and Frierson, \r 2015; Zhao and Dai, 2015)."


id: 5400f0a062c907a2f3d812bdeb127ce9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12050
content:
"Globally, warming rates have been twice as high in drylands as in humid \r lands, because the sparse vegetation cover and lower soil moisture of \r dryland ecosystems amplify temperature and aridity increases (Huang \r et al., 2016). This enhanced warming is expected to continue in the \r future. Surface warming over drylands is projected to reach ~6.5degC \r (~3.5degC) under the high Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) \r 8.5 (low-moderate RCP4.5) emissions scenario by the end of this \r century, relative to the historical period (1961-1990) (Huang et  al., \r 2016; Huang et al., 2017). Exploring the spatial variations between the \r aeolian desertification response in selected climate change scenarios, \r Wang et al. (2017) reported that temperature rise could trigger aeolian \r desertification in West Asia, Central China and Mongolia. The number \r of extremely hot days with temperatures above 40degC is projected to \r increase considerably across the Arab region by the end of the 21st \r [...]"


id: 9ebb350919ac41c3e3670e36f3e1fe3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25146
content:
"Drought conditions (frequency, severity and duration) are expected \r to substantially worsen in global drylands, driven by a higher \r saturation threshold and more intense and frequent dry spells under \r rising temperatures (Liu et  al., 2019a; 2019b). In a +1.5degC world, \r historical 50-year droughts (based on the Standardised Precipitation\u0002Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) could occur twice as frequently \r across 58% of global landmasses relative to the 1976-2005 period, \r an area that increases to 67% under 2degC warming (Gu et al., 2020). \r Multi-year drought events of magnitudes exceeding historical baselines \r will increase by 2050 in countries with drylands including Australia, \r Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA (Jenkins and Warren, 2015). The \r magnitude of drought stress in different regions differs depending on \r the metric used. Projections based on the PDSI suggest drought stress \r will increase by more than 70% globally, while a substantially lower \r [...]"


id: 567866af371de6dd97ac6608f7042146
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12471
content:
"[...] estimate of 37% is found when precipitation minus evapotranspiration \r (P - E) is used (Swann et al., 2016). However, the two metrics agree \r on increasing drought stress in regions with more robust decreases "


id: 412f65d429c149af06b50114d3d8c6c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8646
content:
"the northern Great Plains (Pu and Ginoux, 2017). A declining trend \r in dust emission and transport from the Sahara under RCP8.5 was \r detected by Evan et al. (2016), but regional climate model experiments \r conducted by Ji et al. (2018) under the same scenario indicated that \r overall dust loadings would increase by the end of the 21st century \r over West Africa. New dust sources may emerge with changing climate \r conditions, as Bhattachan et al. (2012) indicate for the Kalahari Desert \r in southern Africa, due to vegetation loss and dune remobilisation. \r There is overall low confidence on future atmospheric dust loads at \r the global and regional scale. Models of future dust emissions are \r limited by the low accuracy of models of present anthropogenic dust \r emissions, which range from 10% to 60% of the total atmospheric \r dust load (Webb and Pierre, 2018). A global compilation of data \r from sedimentary archives (ice cores), remote sensing, airborne \r [...]"


id: f9c812ca266cb7cc2e0b8c53d469f426
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41303
content:
"[...] sediment sampling and meteorological station data estimated that \r anthropogenic dust emissions have at least doubled over the past \r 250 years (Hooper and Marx, 2018). While future emissions of natural \r dust sources are projected to decrease (Mahowald et  al., 2006) or \r remain stable (Ashkenazy et  al., 2012), when sources of human \r emissions are included, projections of future atmospheric dust loads \r suggest that emissions may increase (Stanelle et al., 2014)."


id: afacc8a00e22876b7a566525d09f8ca
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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vector_id: 28144
content:
"y\r Global dryland area (based on the AI) is projected to expand by ~10% \r by 2100 compared to 1961-1990 under a high emission scenario (Feng \r and Fu, 2013). However, there are significant regional differences in \r the drivers of dryland expansion and subsequent estimates of change \r in dryland extent. Subtropical drylands are projected to expand as \r the climate in these regions shifts from temperate to subtropical and \r aridity increases in currently sub-humid subtropical regions, resulting \r in the loss of temperature-controlled seasonal cycles (Schlaepfer et al., \r 2017). Observed and projected warming and drying trends are most \r severe in transitional climate regions between dry and wet climates, \r with some exceptions (Nkrumah et al., 2019), which are often highly \r populated agricultural regions with fragile ecosystems (Cheng and \r Huang, 2016). In contrast, P  -  E predicts decreasing drought stress \r across temperate Asia and central Africa (Swann et  al., 2016). \r [...]"


id: f05b9aed23cde54a92d5c62bf16d2d88
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] Expansion of arid regions is anticipated in southwest North America, \r the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa and Australia. The main \r areas of semiarid expansion are expected to occur in the north side \r of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. \r In contrast, India, eastern equatorial Africa and other areas of the \r southern Saharan regions are projected to have shrinking drylands \r (Biasutti and Giannini, 2006; Biasutti, 2013; Rowell et al., 2016). Future \r projections may underestimate dryland expansion, since the Coupled \r Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models underestimate \r historical warming (Huang et al., 2016) and overestimate precipitation \r over drylands, particularly in the semiarid and dry sub-humid regions \r (Ji et al., 2015). However, estimates vary depending on the metric used \r (Swann et al., 2016; Berg et al., 2017b). Studies based on off-line aridity \r [...]"


id: 1084c99b44ea470efd924d6c22838ac8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] and drought metrics (calculated from model output of precipitation, \r evapotranspiration or temperature) project strong surface drying trends \r (Cook et  al., 2014; Scheff and Frierson, 2015; Zhao and Dai, 2015), \r while projections based on total soil water availability from CMIP5 \r models show weaker and less extensive drying (Berg et al., 2017a). \r In contrast, projections in southern Africa may overestimate future \r drying, with systematic rainfall biases being found in the present-day \r climatology in models that simulate extreme future drying (Munday \r and Washington, 2019). Improvements in projections of future changes \r in aridity require better understanding of seasonality, land hydrology \r and the feedbacks between projected soil moisture decrease on land \r surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation (Huang et al., \r 2016)."


id: e869ba6d34daad77b054fd6d0851d867
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Changes to the composition, structure and functioning of natural \r communities in deserts and dryland ecosystems are key risks \r resulting from water stress, drought intensity and continued habitat \r degradation, greater frequency of wildfire, biodiversity loss and the \r spread of invasive species (Hurlbert et al., 2019). Not all these stresses \r occur at the same time in a particular environment, with some \r areas more exposed to, for example, wildfire than others, especially \r in areas with high amounts of dry herbaceous biomass. Grassland \r composition may shift as C3 plants are replaced by C4 species, which \r have higher optimal temperatures and higher water use efficiency \r (although seasonality of precipitation also plays a role) (Knapp et al., \r 2020). Many desert species have morphological, physiological and/\r or behavioural adaptations to cope with climatic extremes, including \r rapid regeneration following droughts (Boudet, 1977; Hiernaux and Le \r [...]"


id: a3dc464540511098f9c454bfc14d6416
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] Houerou, 2006), leaf dropping during the dry season to reduce water \r loss (Santos et  al., 2014), alongside long histories of adaptation to \r climate change (Brooks et al., 2005; Ballouche and Rasse, 2007), while \r many animals live near their physiological limits (Vale and Brito, 2015). \r Substantial ecological effects may occur when extreme events such \r as heatwaves or droughts are superimposed on the warming trend, "


id: 451b130dba2d283233cdac067f6d5a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"Higher dust emissions are consistent with climate change projections \r indicating an expansion in the global area of drylands (Feng and Fu, \r 2013; Huang et al., 2016) and increased drought risk (Cook et al., 2014; \r Xu et al., 2019), but future trends in dust event frequency and intensity \r as a result of climate change are uncertain and will vary geographically \r (Jia, 2019). Combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic \r activities are projected to increase sand encroachment and extreme \r dust storms (Omar Asem and Roy, 2010; Sharratt et al., 2015; Pu and \r Ginoux, 2017) as a result of increased aridity, accelerating soil erosion \r (Section  4.4.8; Sharratt et  al., 2015) and loss of biomass (Sharratt \r et al., 2015; Middleton and Kang, 2017). Shifts in dust storm timings \r are also projected in some regions (Hand et  al., 2016). Dustiness is \r projected to increase in the southern US Great Plains in the late 21st \r [...]"


id: df362b3a326467fb08bf46b1391b0ba1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"pushing species beyond their physiological and mortality thresholds \r (Hoover et al., 2015; Harris et al., 2018).\r Climate change increases risks of continued range retractions of Karoo \r succulents in South Africa (Young et al., 2016), dry argan woodlands \r in Morocco (Alba-Sanchez et  al., 2015), epiphytic cacti in Brazil \r (Cavalcante and Duarte, 2019; Cavalcante et al., 2020) and other plant \r species exposed to higher aridity. Projected increases in heat and \r aridity could increase mortality of trees and shrubs in Sonoran Desert \r ecosystems in the USA (Munson et al., 2012; 2016b), reduce sagebrush \r in arid ecosystems of the western USA (Renwick et  al., 2018), and \r contribute to the replacement of perennial grasses with xeric shrubs in \r the southwestern USA (Bestelmeyer et al., 2018). CO2 fertilization and \r warmer conditions, combined with changes in timing and availability \r of moisture, could increase invasive grasses and wildfire in desert \r [...]"


id: 8874aa62fd1ee0a98b51adb3dff80cf5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] ecosystems of Australia and southwestern USA, where wildfire has \r historically been absent or infrequent (Abatzoglou and Kolden, 2011; \r Horn and St. Clair, 2017; Klinger and Brooks, 2017; Syphard et al., 2017). \r Trends of woody encroachment may continue in some North American \r and African drylands or at least not reverse (Higgins and Scheiter, 2012; \r Caracciolo et al., 2016). Impacts of woody encroachment on drylands \r may show a slight increase in carbon, but a decline in water and huge \r negative impacts on biodiversity, with a tendency for open ecosystem \r species to be most affected (Archer et al., 2017). Expansion of grasses \r into these arid shrublands has the potential to transform them rapidly, \r especially through the acceleration of the fire cycle (Bradley et  al., \r 2016). While the impact of increased aridity may be offset by changing \r water use efficiency by plants under high CO2 concentrations, limiting \r [...]"


id: 8fba8c94a1b778e67d868eb066fe46e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] the expansion of dryland ecosystems (Swann et al., 2016; Mirzabaev \r et al., 2019), increased plant growth in response to elevated CO2, which \r results in increased water consumption, may counteract this. Increased \r water use efficiency is therefore not expected to counterbalance \r increased evaporative demand (Chapter 8). There is medium confidence\r that succulent species will be particularly vulnerable to increased heat \r and aridity due to reduced physiological performance, loss of seed \r banks, lower germination rates and increased mortality (Table CCP3.1; \r Musil et al., 2005; Aragon-Gastelum et al., 2014; 2017; Shryock et al., \r 2014; Martorell et al., 2015; Carrillo-Angeles et al., 2016; Kozminska \r et al., 2019)."


id: a6905bf989cefb771a2fe98ebb957ab3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Projected impacts of climate change on the risk of food insecurity are \r a particular concern for the developing world drylands (Chapter 16; \r Mirzabaev et al., 2019), potentially leading to the breakdown of food \r production systems, including crops, livestock and fisheries, as well as \r disruptions in food supply chains and distribution (Myers et al., 2017; \r Lewis and Mallela, 2018). Developing country drylands are particularly \r vulnerable due to a higher share of populations with lower income, \r lower physical access to nutritious food, social discrimination and \r other environmental factors that link to climate change. For example, \r countries such as Somalia, Yemen and Sudan faced recent and resurging \r challenges from an increase in desert locusts, the effects of which, in \r 2020, extended from East Africa through the Arabian Peninsula and \r Iran as far as India and Pakistan. Meynard et al. (2020) note that under \r [...]"


id: 6329715e9e67461029f4d7c9a26751b1
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"[...] climate change, some areas suffering from previous outbreaks may see \r changes in formation of swarms of Schistocerca gregaria. Salih et al. \r (2020) recognise that attributing the 2020 swarms as a single event \r to climate change remains challenging, but highlight that projected \r temperature and rainfall increases in deserts and strong tropical cycles \r can create conditions conducive to the development, aggregation, \r outbreak and survival of locusts. Mandumbu et  al. (2017) highlight \r how crop parasites such as Striga spp. in southern Africa may benefit \r from higher temperatures and rainfall activating dormant seeds, while \r high winds aid their dispersal. Combined with increasing risks of \r erosion and soil fertility losses (Striga is able to tolerate drought and \r a low nitrogen environment), this can have important impacts on the \r yields of key dryland crops such as maize and pearl millet."


id: 8efd67d213b7814b52ee99d1220e616
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"Human responses can exacerbate desertification processes under \r climate change conditions, even in deserts. Exploitation of mineral \r resources (e.g., lithium mining in Chile's Atacama Desert) can cause \r human population changes as people flock to the area for work (Liu \r et al., 2019), increasing vulnerability due to, for example, soil erosion \r and salinisation, as well as increasing pressure on potable water for \r human consumption (Stringer et  al., 2021) and exhausting aquifers. \r Salinisation is projected to increase in the drylands due to climate \r change impacts in future (Mirzabaev et  al., 2019). For example, in \r India, about 7 million hectares of arable land area is currently affected \r by salt (Sharma et al., 2015; Sharma and Singh, 2015). It is projected \r that unsustainable use of marginal quality waters in irrigation and \r neglect of drainage, combined with climate change impacts, will \r accelerate land salinisation in India, rendering another 9  million \r [...]"


id: 91155216b9cf7c44b96ae9c939934306
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"[...] hectares salty and less productive by 2050 (ICAR-CSSRI, 2015). This \r has important cost implications given that annually, 16.84  million \r tonnes of farm production valued at INR 230.19 billion is already lost \r in India due to salinity and associated problems (Sharma and Singh, \r 2015). The literature further shows evidence of desertification of oases \r and irrigated lands in parts of northern China's drylands (Wang et al., \r 2020), the Indian subcontinent's deserts, as well as the Mesopotamian \r Arabian Desert (Ezcurra, 2006; Dilshat et al., 2015)."


id: e8aaed341cb75e980678eaafa1dc6b75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Adaptations to climate change impacts in human systems vary \r depending on exposure to risks, types of risks and responses, \r underlying social vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities, including \r access to resources, the extent of adaptation responses and the \r potential of these responses to reduce risk/vulnerability (Chapter 16; \r Singh and Chudasama 2021). Adaptations tend to be applied locally, \r tackling symptoms of the problem and proximate drivers (e.g., of \r desertification), rather than distant or external drivers (Morris et al., \r 2016; Adenle and Ifejika Speranza, 2021). Different groups require \r different kinds of supports and levers to enable them to follow adaptive \r pathways (Moller et al., 2017; Stringer et al., 2020) and face different \r barriers and limits to adaptation (Chapter 18). What constitutes an \r incremental adaptation in one location may be transformational in \r another. Spatial patterns of dryland resilience and adaptive capacity \r [...]"


id: 8f3fc7121059e1de184164d1fb555f7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] can be partly explained by access to livelihood capitals (Mazhar et al., \r 2021) and are shaped by prevailing structures and power dynamics. \r Supportive policies, institutions and good governance approaches can \r strengthen the adaptive capacities of dryland farmers, pastoralists \r and other resource users (high confidence) (Stringer et  al., 2017). \r Table  CCP3.2 provides examples of illustrative adaptation options \r responding to major challenges of climate change and desertification \r in deserts and semiarid areas. Some adaptations present no-regrets \r options while others tackle desertification and/ or climate changes to \r different extents."


id: 197195161fc48eb19745dd1f359de7fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"Natural systems are also able to adapt to climate change, be adapted \r and become more resilient to desertification. For example, the root \r network architecture of the hyper-arid Negev Desert acacia trees has \r enabled them to withstand intensive cultivation and climate change\u0002driven desertification (Winter et al., 2015), while vegetation-induced \r sand mounds ('coppice dunes') in the Arabian Desert have reduced \r desertification through reducing wind erosion and enriching sand \r desert land with water and nutrients (Quets et al., 2017). Vegetation \r cover of psammophyte shrub species (in the 'desert oasis transitional \r area') surrounding the Dunhuang Oasis (northwest China) reduces oasis \r land degradation risk by reducing sand grain size and velocity of winds \r from the aeolian desert (Zhang et al., 2007); while land use planning in \r Israel's Negev Desert taking a 'sharing' approach between cultivation \r and urbanisation has helped to minimise the external degrading \r [...]"


id: 8573af48c878990ed97cd0c1bc7b403a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] effects of adjacent desert land ecosystems (Portnov and Safriel, 2004). \r Scholars are nevertheless questioning the wider suitability of tree \r planting in drylands, given concerns for water availability and other \r ecosystem services (Veldman et  al., 2015; 2019; Bond et  al., 2019). \r How natural dryland systems are managed following disturbances \r such as wildfire is important too. van den Elsen et al. (2020) found that \r establishing vegetation and mulch cover after a fire in a Mediterranean \r dryland ecosystem reduced soil erosion, helping maintain soil fertility \r and nutrients. However, different management objectives require \r different adaptations. For example, adaptation measures that reduce \r land degradation through reforestation could increase vulnerability to \r fire if they exclude ecologically sound fire management or are based \r on plant species that are fire prone. Combinations of different land \r [...]"


id: e930cec346403c63fdffd4dbdb30c04b
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"[...] management practices and governance approaches tackling a range of \r different stresses appear to best support sustainability and adaptation \r over the long term (van den Elsen et al., 2020)."


id: 60f631c75263706f6b595d8063de058d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"Adaptations to climate change, desertification, drought management \r (Section  17.2.2.2) and sustainable development activities largely \r overlap in drylands, pointing to synergies between them (Reichhuber \r et  al., 2019). For example, support for communal and flexible land \r tenure could bring about benefits across multiple dimensions, while \r attention to water as a limiting factor in drylands can link to multiple \r SDGs (Stringer et al., 2021), as well as adaptations in natural systems, \r where improved forecasting and anticipatory science and management \r can be appropriate (Bradford et  al., 2018). Currently, more than \r 125 countries around the world, particularly in drylands, are setting land \r degradation neutrality (LDN) targets. LDN and its hierarchical response \r mechanisms of avoiding, reducing and reversing land degradation can \r provide an overarching resilience-based framework for adaptation at the \r [...]"


id: e74f8d546250b9586ab465d67d641c1d
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content:
"[...] national level (Mirzabaev et al., 2019; Orr et al., 2017b; Cowie et al., \r 2018) and support biodiversity conservation (Akhtar-Schuster et  al., \r 2017). However, achieving LDN will require a transparent decision and \r prioritisation process (Dallimer and Stringer, 2018), anchored in a socio\u0002ecological systems approach (Okpara et al., 2018), with investment in \r all dimensions of an enabling environment, including inclusive policies \r and regulations, sustainable institutions, accessible finance and effective \r science-policy communications and interactions (Verburg et al., 2019; \r Allen et  al., 2020). LDN calls for integrated land use planning to \r ensure land uses are optimised at a landscape scale to help balance \r competition for limited land resources and harness multiple benefits \r (Cowie et al., 2018, Verburg et al., 2019), recognising that adaptations \r present synergies and trade-offs along various dimensions of sustainable \r [...]"


id: ca98c66da1e74e573825ec93634c3f97
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content:
"[...] development such as poverty reduction, enhancing food security and \r human health or providing improved access to clean energy, land, water, \r and finance (see Section 8.6). Distributional effects of adaptation options \r also may vary between different socioeconomic groups within countries "


id: ccc4a15e52b02cb880febd98ef52a84b
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"Collective action can facilitate the implementation of adaptation \r responses and help tackle challenges associated with upscaling of \r successful land-based adaptations (Thomas et  al., 2018). However, a \r lack of coordination between stakeholders and across sectors can be \r problematic (Amiraslani et al., 2018), showing the importance of multi\u0002stakeholder engagement (De Vente et  al., 2016). Multi-stakeholder \r engagement is recognised as an essential part of desertification \r control, as well as vital in tackling climate change (Reed and Stringer, \r 2016), with participation taking place to different extents in different \r drylands according to the prevailing governance system. In China, the \r Grain for Green programme is an example of a large-scale ecological \r restoration programme securing local engagement through payments \r for ecosystem services (Kong et al., 2021). Transdisciplinary stakeholder \r engagement involving researchers and central and local governments \r [...]"


id: 4cdbb21adce2bd22102b849dcada496c
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content:
"[...] in the Heihe River Basin in China's arid and semiarid northwest, using \r an interdisciplinary 'web' approach, enabled basin restoration. Multi\u0002stakeholder efforts saw improvement in the condition of Juyan Lake and \r the surrounding catchment, increasing both the lake surface area and \r groundwater in downstream locations (Liu et al., 2019)."


id: 8bd6b833c5694097faaa12d95e9f3d97
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content:
"In the short- to medium-term, monitoring, prediction and early warning \r can support adaptation and, for example, help reduce negative impacts \r of SDS by mobilising emergency responses. Daily dust forecasts \r enable preparation to minimise risks from SDS to both human and \r natural systems (e.g., the World Meteorological Organization Sand \r and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System: https://\r sds-was.aemet.es/forecast-products/dust-forecasts). Preparedness and \r emergency response procedures benefit from covering diverse sectors, \r such as public health surveillance, hospital services, air and ground \r transportation services, water and sanitation, food production systems \r and public awareness, suggesting the need for a coherent, multi\u0002sector governance approach. Longer-term actions include prioritising \r sustainable land management (Middleton and Kang, 2017), based on \r IKLK and modern science (Verner, 2012), along with the investment of \r [...]"


id: 7a90d260282c0f95705b4736f41b485e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] financial and human capital in supporting these measures. Devolved \r adaptation finance in dryland areas of, for example, Kenya (Nyangena \r and Roba, 2017) and Mali (Hesse, 2016) has yielded promising insights, \r highlighting the importance of climate information services and \r local government support for community prioritisation of adaptation \r activities. Such actions can enable substantial benefits for poor and \r marginalised men and women. Among international institutional \r measures, a global coalition to combat SDS was launched at the \r United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Conference of \r Parties (UNCCD COP14) in 2019, which could help to better mobilise \r a global response to SDS. Similarly, there have been calls for increased \r investment in regional institutions such as the Desert Locust Control \r Organisation for Eastern Africa to both pre-empt and tackle locust \r plagues (Salih et al., 2020), requiring transboundary cooperation."


id: 7a7966bc5638f5960b0d6ade7a52add9
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content:
"et  al., 2016; Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2018; Wilhite, 2019). It also \r underscores the LDN response hierarchy avoid > reduce > reverse \r (Orr et  al., 2017a). Nevertheless, ex ante drought and flood risk \r mitigation has been adopted in limited dryland settings, despite it \r being preferable to increase preparedness before it happens, provide \r incentives for adaptation instead of insurance, provide insurance \r instead of relief and provide relief instead of regulation (Sivakumar, \r 2005). Yet, providing disaster relief is often more publicly visible and \r politically expedient, despite its social, economic and environmental \r challenges. The absence of proactive risk mitigation and resulting crisis \r management increases vulnerability, increases reliance on government \r support, reduces self-reliance and increases costs (Grobicki et al., 2015; \r Wilhite, 2019), as well as hindering progress towards the SDGs. In the \r [...]"


id: f230ecdf0a62d721f11988dfcb1d2ce3
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content:
"[...] case of drought and flooding, major obstacles for the transition from \r reactive management to proactive drought risk mitigation include path \r dependencies and lack of knowledge about relative costs and benefits \r of reactive versus proactive approaches. This lack of information can \r deter large-scale and long-term investments into proactive approaches \r (Mirzabaev, 2016)."


id: f881407a0c4eea67c57a31e830cb2659
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content:
"Many of these measures can also support climate change mitigation \r efforts in drylands. Uptake of adaptation measures is often grounded \r in clear communications and information provision to support \r behavioural changes, taking into account local risk aversion and \r risk perceptions (Zeweld et al., 2018; Jellason et al., 2019). Building \r capacity by improving the knowledge base and access to information, \r as well as to financial and other resources, encourages vulnerable \r economic sectors and people to adopt more self-reliant measures that \r promote more integrated and sustainable use of natural resources \r (high confidence) (Sivakumar, 2005; Wieriks and Vlaanderen, 2015; \r Aguilar-Barajas et al., 2016; Middleton and Kang, 2017; Wilhite, 2019). \r Engaging natural resource users as active participants in planning \r and technology adoption using extension services, financial grants \r and services geared to the local area, can build resilience and drive \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] changes in practices (Webb and Pierre, 2018), while approaches such \r as Integrated Water Resources Management can support adaptation \r and drought risk management, including in dryland urban megacities \r (Stringer et  al., 2021) and in deserts and semiarid areas where \r precipitation trends remain stable yet other pressures on water are \r growing (Reichhuber et al., 2019)."


id: b90e95d5a35735e56edfdd4097ade4a2
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content:
"Drylands include the hottest and most arid areas on Earth. Human-caused climate change has been intensifying \r this heat and aridity in some places, increasing temperatures more across global drylands than in humid areas. In \r areas which are hotter and drier, tree death has occurred and in some locations bird species have been lost. Climate \r change has reduced rainfall in some dryland areas and increased rainfall in other areas. Increased rainfall, combined \r with the plant-fertilizing effect of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, can increase grass and shrub production \r in dryland areas. Because water is scarce in drylands and aridity limits the productivity of agriculture, millions of \r people living in drylands have faced severe difficulties in maintaining their livelihoods. This challenge is exacerbated \r by non-climate change factors, such as low levels of infrastructure, remoteness and limited livelihood options that \r [...]"


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"[...] are less dependent on scarce natural resources. High temperatures in drylands increase the vulnerability of people \r to potential heat-related illnesses and deaths from heat under continued climate change."


id: e3ba6d61d98aae7bdf6f2aecb66b9ec0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37354
content:
"Most climate models project increased rainfall in tropical drylands, but more variability. High natural climatic \r variability in drylands makes predictions uncertain. Understanding future impacts is further complicated by many \r interacting factors such as land use change and urbanisation that affect the condition of drylands. Future trends \r in sand and dust storm activity are also uncertain and will not be the same everywhere, but there will likely be \r increases in some regions (e.g., the USA) in the long term. The impacts of climate change in deserts and semiarid \r areas may have substantial implications globally: for agriculture, biodiversity, health, trade and poverty, as well as \r potentially, for conflicts and migration. Increasing temperatures and more irregular rainfall are expected to affect \r soil and water and contribute to tree death and loss of biodiversity. In other places, woody encroachment onto \r [...]"


id: 8d58996c44386a7d2c20882a635555ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22045
content:
"[...] savannas may increase, in response to the combination of land use change, changes in rainfall, fire suppression \r and CO2 fertilization. Crop yields are projected to decline in some areas, with adverse impacts on food security. The \r potential for conflicts and migration is primarily associated with socioeconomic development, while links to \r climate change remain uncertain and lack evidence."


id: b30fb5a474102fbb9f5ac98492a5f38c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28746
content:
"Different desert and semiarid areas can benefit from different incremental and transformational solutions to move \r toward sustainable development under climate change. In some dryland areas facing critical water shortages, \r transformational adaptations may be needed; for example, large-scale water desalination when they have access to \r sea water, despite high energy use and negative environmental impacts of waste brine. In dryland agricultural areas \r across the world, incremental adaptations include water conservation measures, use of improved crop varieties or \r increasing herd mobility. What counts as a transformational change in some places may be incremental in others. \r Often solutions can target multiple development goals. For example, water harvesting can make water available \r during drought, buffering water scarcity impacts, while also supporting food production, agricultural livelihoods \r [...]"


id: 583409202a229823ecd236cf04f6382d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12771
content:
"[...] and human health. Land-based approaches, e.g. restoration of grassland, shrubland, and savanna ecosystems, are \r important for ensuring ecological integrity, soil protection and preventing livelihoods from being undermined \r as a result of growing extreme weather events. It is important that policies, investments and interventions that \r aim to support sustainable development take into account which groups are likely to be most affected by climate \r change. Those people directly dependent on natural resources for their survival are generally most vulnerable \r but least able to adapt. The capacity to translate IKLK and experience into actions can require external support. \r Governments and other stakeholders can help by investing in early warning systems, providing climate information, \r realigning policies and incentives for sustainable management, investing in supporting infrastructures, alongside \r [...]"


id: fba1ec2aab54c17fe5d114a332981600
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41641
content:
"[...] developing alternative livelihood options that are less exposed and sensitive to climate change. Involving all relevant \r stakeholders is important. For example, in China, the Grain for Green programme secured local engagement by \r paying people to manage the environment more sustainably. At a global level, important groups have emerged to \r cooperate and offer solutions around issues such as sand and dust storms, and integrated drought management. \r Efforts are needed across all scales from local to global to support sustainable development in desert and semiarid \r areas, given projected climate changes."


id: 8c011523d86d360eb2c216ad52a66d1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21802
content:
"Mediterranean Sea level is projected to rise further during the \r coming decades and centuries (high confidence), likely reaching \r 0.15-0.33 m in 2050, and 0.3-0.6 m for shared socioeconomic \r pathways (SSP) 1-1.9 and 0.6-1.1 m for SSP5-8.5 in 2100 (relative \r to 1995-2014) (medium confidence). Higher values cannot be \r excluded (low confidence) and the process is irreversible at the \r scale of centuries to millennia (high confidence). Coastal flood \r risks will increase in low-lying areas along 37% of the Mediterranean \r coastline that currently hosts 42 million people. The number of people \r exposed to sea level rise is projected to increase up to 2050, especially \r in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region, and may reach up \r to 130% compared to present in 2100 (medium confidence). Coastal \r settlements, World Heritage sites and ecosystems are at longer-term \r risk from sustained sea level rise over at least the coming three \r [...]"


id: 7d6561e3d2572c34c8dbc3dcb4ebcfe5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19231
content:
"Due to its particular combination of multiple strong climate \r hazards and high vulnerability, the Mediterranean region \r is a hotspot for highly interconnected climate risks. The main \r economic sectors in the region (agriculture, fisheries, forestry, tourism) \r are highly vulnerable to climatic hazards, while socioeconomic \r vulnerability is also considerable. The low-lying areas are the most \r vulnerable areas for coastal climate-related risks (e.g., sea level rise, \r floods, erosion) and other consequent risks (e.g., saltwater intrusion \r and agriculture damage) (high confidence). Climate change threatens \r water availability, reducing river low flows and annual runoff by \r 5-70%, reducing hydropower capacity (high confidence). Yields of rain\u0002fed crops may decrease by 64% in some locations (high confidence). \r Ocean warming and acidification will impact marine ecosystems, with \r uncertain consequences on fisheries (low confidence). Desertification \r [...]"


id: 1bda59b6df9ccba4d1177b3acc73e335
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2088
content:
"[...] will affect additional areas, notably in the south and southeast (medium \r confidence). Burnt area of forests may increase by 96-187% under \r 3degC, depending on fire management. Beyond 3degC, 13-30% of the \r Natura 2000 protected area and 15-23% of Natura 2000 sites could \r be lost due to climate-driven habitat change (medium confidence). \r {CCP4.2; CCP4.3}"


id: 21647871dbea153ae34723c8cb6f3057
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3085
content:
"The increasing water scarcity was found to be a significant threat to \r agriculture (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014; Kovats et al., 2014; Niang \r et al., 2014; Mrabet et al., 2020). Associated with increased extreme \r temperatures, the Mediterranean is expected to become less attractive \r for tourism (Kovats et al., 2014; Nurse et al., 2014; Wong et al., 2014; \r Dos Santos et al., 2020). Several critical risks for human health increase \r due to climate change, including heat waves and vector-borne diseases \r (Kovats et al., 2014; Nurse et al., 2014; Linares et al., 2020). Adaptation \r options have been identified for many risks (buildings, water \r management, coastal protection, etc.) (Murray et al., 2012; Revi et al., \r 2014; Wong et al., 2014). There are synergies between adaptation and \r mitigation, for example, renewable energies or nature-based solutions \r focused on the conservation and restoration of ecosystems (Nurse \r [...]"


id: e83dcf34f2a059207a23572f20c95e94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38193
content:
"All previous assessments of climate change for the Mediterranean Basin \r and its sub-regions indicate ongoing warming of the atmosphere and \r the sea, as well as projected warming and changes in rainfall (Stocker \r et  al., 2013; Cherif et  al., 2020). The projected increase in climate \r hazards, in combination with high regional vulnerability and exposure \r make it a prominent 'climate change hotspot' (Giorgi, 2006), with a \r large number of vulnerable natural systems and socioeconomic sectors \r (Field et al., 2014; MedECC, 2020). In addition to high temperatures, the \r main risk factor identified is drought, generally expected to increase \r in the region, significant already at global warming of only 1.5degC, \r reaching, for higher warming levels, intensities unprecedented during \r the past 10 ka (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). In Southern Europe \r and North Africa, groundwater recharge and soil water content will \r [...]"


id: 998d863b76785b13e67b7d00ebd44aaf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24245
content:
"[...] consequently decline, especially during summer (Kovats et al., 2014; \r Niang et al., 2014)."


id: c9c00f99cd90c32a554986da4facb552
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32821
content:
"are impacting marine (Rivetti et al., 2014; Tsikliras and Stergiou, 2014; \r Stergiou et al., 2016; Corrales et al., 2017), freshwater and terrestrial \r ecosystems (Penuelas et al., 2018; Bartsch et al., 2020; Carosi et al., \r 2021), as well as agriculture (El-Maayar and Lange, 2013; Ortas and \r Lal, 2013; Ponti et  al., 2014; Garcia-Mozo et  al., 2015; Moore and \r Lobell, 2015; Oteros et  al., 2015; Di Lena et  al., 2018) and fisheries \r (Fortibuoni et al., 2015; Givan et al., 2018; IPBES, 2018a). Heat waves \r have also increased thermal discomfort, especially in urban areas \r (WGI AR6 Chapter 10, Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; WGI AR6 Chapter 12, \r Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Zinzi and Carnielo, 2017). Despite increasing \r wildfire hazard, forest fires are generally decreasing in the European \r part of the basin, due to more efficient risk management (medium \r confidence) (Turco et  al., 2016; 2017). Mixed trends of increasing \r [...]"


id: 7f8828a2ed2045ad00fa4b4c2e82ab7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19581
content:
"[...] and decreasing flash and river floods across the Mediterranean are \r reported, but there is low confidence in their attribution to climate \r change (Mediero et al., 2014; Baahmed et al., 2015; Gaume et al., 2016; \r Paprotny et al., 2018; Bloschl et al., 2019; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2019)."


id: 81ab8fd51e0ecdd1d92297265672ea53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19940
content:
"The agricultural sector is important for most Mediterranean economies, \r both in terms of GDP and employment, with its share of the total GDP \r in the region at 6.7% in 2016 (Kutiel, 2019). Water stress in southern \r countries is largely driven by growing demand from agriculture, with a \r potential water deficit of 28-47% by 2030 (Sebri, 2017). In Spain, 11 \r out of 15 river basin districts are under water stress due to demand \r from agriculture (Vargas and Paneque, 2019). In Greece, the largest \r agricultural region (Thessaly) where 70% of the irrigation water comes \r from groundwater, is under water stress (Gemitzi and Lakshmi, 2018). \r Water scarcity and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture make \r MENA countries vulnerable to warming and reduced rainfall, associated \r with high irrigation requirements (Dhehibi et  al., 2015; Fader et  al., \r 2016; World Bank, 2016; 2018; Asseng et al., 2018). This is exacerbated \r [...]"


id: 99ec2f31501be9f1aa82c68696932b2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24309
content:
"[...] by poverty and political instability (Price, 2017). For cropping systems \r in MENA countries, the Nile Valley and the western parts of North \r Africa on the Atlas Mountains are classified as the areas with highest \r vulnerability (ESCWA, 2017). Grassland and pastoral systems are also \r vulnerable to increasing drought, notably in the western part of the \r basin (Balzan et al., 2020). Increased heat stress in summer negatively \r impacts animal health and welfare, i.e., increased incidence of diseases \r and mortality or lower fertility (Lacetera 2019)."


id: 6791bae4c0cbd6a9164e29ac10cd7c27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15489
content:
"Heat waves and other climatic extremes affect densely populated \r urban centres and coastal regions, causing health risks for vulnerable \r groups, in particular those who live in poverty with substandard \r housing (Paz et al., 2016; Scortichini et al., 2018; Rohat et al., 2019). \r Nights with temperatures higher than 23degC have been increasing, with \r a corresponding increase in health risks (Roye, 2017). Human health is \r also vulnerable to other risks altered by climate change, either directly \r through droughts, floods, fires and so forth or indirectly through impacts \r on disease vectors, air pollution, water quality and food security (Negev \r et al., 2015). Cases of dengue fever were recently reported from several \r countries, and there is an apparent threat of outbreaks transmitted \r by Aedes mosquitoes in the northern Mediterranean (Semenza et al., \r 2016; Semenza and Suk, 2017). The most vulnerable to climate impacts \r [...]"


id: f13b17b0db801a1bac98b0fdfab46e0d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39829
content:
"[...] are the elderly, pregnant women, children, the chronically ill, the obese \r and people with cognitive impairment (Linares et al., 2015; Paravantis \r et al., 2017)."


id: 3b4dd9b40df8013243575d4658133321
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7620
content:
"With warming, marine primary production is projected to decrease in \r the western and increase in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Macias \r et al., 2015). The diversity of copepods (species which dominate the \r meso-zooplankton communities feeding Mediterranean fishes) is \r projected to decline over most of the Mediterranean, albeit with \r regional variation (Benedetti et  al., 2018). Total marine biomass \r (and fishery potential) is projected to increase in the southeastern \r Mediterranean, whereas significant decreases are most likely in the \r west (Moullec et al., 2019). The projected increase of marine heat waves \r in the Mediterranean Sea will add additional pressures to coastal and \r marine ecosystems. Warm-water fish species are expected to move \r northwards, while cold-water species will decline, and invasions of \r thermal-tolerant tropical species will increase (high confidence) (Lloret \r et al., 2015; Corrales et al., 2018). Fish species richness is predicted to \r [...]"


id: 208046d2db4aead07b9e3a45bd5d02df
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2939
content:
"[...] increase in the eastern and decrease in the western Mediterranean by \r 2050 but, by 2100, the cooler areas in the north will become a 'cul-de\u0002sac' for many species (Albouy et al., 2013; Burrows et al., 2014). Out \r of 75 endemic fish species, 14 are projected to go extinct, almost all \r of them benthic and demersal species (Ben Rais Lasram et al., 2010). \r The abundance of small and medium-sized pelagic fish (e.g., European "


id: 9f9b50837fd7dfd9904fd4c2b4a07b3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25290
content:
"Heat waves will likely cause increasing mass mortality events of \r benthic species, mostly invertebrate organisms, such as corals, \r sponges, bivalves, ascidians and bryozoans, increasing the risks of \r abrupt collapse of endemic species (Kersting et al., 2013; Rivetti et al., \r 2014; Rivetti et al., 2017; Garrabou et al., 2019; Garrabou et al., 2021). \r Deep-water corals live near their upper thermal tolerance and further \r warming could thus reduce their biotic potential and long-term survival \r (Nannini et al., 2015; Yasuhara and Danovaro, 2016; Marchini et al., \r 2019), although there are some exceptions (Naumann et al., 2013) and \r also knowledge gaps (Maier et al., 2019). Warming has been shown to \r severely reduce the metabolism of some Mediterranean coral species \r (Gori et al., 2016). In summary, the observed shift in marine ecosystems \r since 1980 is projected to continue and intensify, resulting in very high \r [...]"


id: 93cd54f448b582d83186b6d9daba120e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23214
content:
"[...] risks for marine ecosystems between 1.5degC-2degC global warming levels \r (GWL) (Figure CCP4.8; Chapters 3; 13; CCP1; Manes et al., 2021)."


id: e0fac2718ca56ae96fab409831a7a59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36849
content:
"The Mediterranean is a micro-tidal sea, where storms may hit the \r coast over several hours or longer, and not only during high tides (Le \r Cozannet et al., 2015; Sanchez-Arcilla et al., 2016; Sierra et al., 2016; \r Sayol and Marcos, 2018). Projected changes of winds, storms and \r waves are small, and confidence in these changes is limited by the \r quality of climate models applied to the Mediterranean (Calafat et al., \r 2014; Androulidakis et al., 2015; Vousdoukas et al., 2017). Overall, sea \r level rise is projected to increase the risk of coastal flooding despite the \r potential slight reductions of marine storms (high confidence) (Lionello \r et al., 2017; Vousdoukas et al., 2017). Risks of erosion and flooding \r will be amplified with climate change, particularly in river deltas \r (Figure CCP4.6; Ali and El-Magd, 2016), on low-lying floodplains, on \r sandy beaches around the basin and in many coastal cities (Satta \r [...]"


id: e21dd5893a3ab50ba4f5b967a23753e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37061
content:
"[...] et  al., 2017). Impacts are projected to increase nonlinearly during \r the 21st century with higher sea level rise, because coastal flooding \r will progressively change from overtopping to overflow, high-tide \r flooding and ultimately permanent flooding and shoreline retreat \r (high confidence) (Le Cozannet et  al., 2015; Sanchez-Arcilla et  al., \r 2016; Sierra et al., 2016; Antonioli et al., 2017; Anzidei et al., 2017; Ciro \r Aucelli et al., 2017; Enriquez et al., 2017; Jimenez et al., 2017; Sayol \r and Marcos, 2018). These risks may be amplified further in areas with \r poor storm water management and sealed urban surfaces (Llasat et al., \r 2013; Gaume et al., 2016)."


id: a585b7bb909ae4d8c3395b77b4b0f812
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26351
content:
"Seawater intrusion is projected to cause additional risks in coastal \r aquifers, with severe impacts on agricultural productivity (Ali and El\u0002Magd, 2016; Wassef and Schuttrumpf, 2016; Pulido-Velazquez et  al., \r 2018; Twining-Ward et al., 2018; Omran and Negm, 2020). While elevated \r atmospheric CO2 concentration could be positive for photosynthesis \r and cereal yields (Dixit et al., 2018; Ben-Asher et al., 2019; Kapur et al., \r 2019; Kheir et al., 2019), the net outcome for agricultural production is \r highly uncertain (Moriondo et al., 2016). The projected yield losses will \r likely reduce farm revenues, for example, in Morocco (Ouraich and Tyner, \r 2018), Egypt (Abd El-Azeem, 2020), Greece (Georgopoulou et al., 2017) \r and Israel (Zelingher et al., 2019). Given the growing water demand \r from agriculture and other users and the increasing competition \r over water resources, adaptation efforts for water supply need to be \r [...]"


id: f9e2fedaf31edf02769bacf603e3a6fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41325
content:
"2019; Calvache et al., 2020). Water levels in lakes and availability of \r reservoirs are expected to decline by up to 45% in 2100 (Koutroulis \r et al., 2016; Masia et al., 2018; Okkan and Kirdemir, 2018; Braca et al., \r 2019; Tramblay et al., 2020). The largest freshwater lake in the basin, \r Lake Beysehir (Turkey), could dry out after 2070 (Bucak et al., 2017). In \r northern Africa, surface water availability is projected to be reduced by \r 5-40% in 2030-2065 and by 7-55% in 2066-2095 from 1976-2005 \r (Tramblay et al., 2018), with decreases of runoff by 10-63% by mid\u0002century in Morocco and Tunisia (Marchane et al., 2017; Dakhlaoui et al., \r 2020). Reduced summer river flows and increasing water temperatures \r will constrain freshwater-cooled thermoelectric (including nuclear) \r power plants and hydropower plants, with possible reductions of \r production in the northern Mediterranean by 6-33% under 2degC and \r by 20-60% beyond 3degC warming (Lobanova et al., 2016; Solaun and \r [...]"


id: 1f5da7612fd103297e2050d06d286bd3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2723
content:
"[...] Cerda, 2017; Payet-Burin et al., 2018; Tobin et al., 2018).These findings \r confirm the WGI AR6 Chapter 8 statement that drought duration and \r frequencies and water scarcity are projected to increase drastically \r between 1.5degC and 2degC of GWLs (Douville et al., 2021)."


id: 1794df5870cecc5a0664c52287ae25f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1355
content:
"Climate-driven change in pelagic production (Section CCP4.3.1), \r together with overfishing, will likely increase risks for fishery landings \r (Hidalgo et  al., 2018). By 2060, more than 20% of exploited fishes \r and invertebrates currently found in eastern Mediterranean could \r become locally extinct (Jones and Cheung, 2015; Cheung et al., 2016; \r Balzan et  al., 2020). Thermophilic and/or thermal-tolerant tropical \r species may increasingly dominate the catch composition (Moullec \r et al., 2019), creating possible opportunities depending on technology \r and consumer acceptance of new species (Hidalgo et  al., 2018). \r Warming and acidification may weaken mussel shells, negatively \r impacting shellfish aquaculture (Martinez et  al., 2018). High losses \r of clawed lobster production by the end of the century are projected \r under RCP4.5 (Boavida-Portugal et al., 2018). For much of the region, \r fisheries revenue may decrease by 15-30% by 2050 relative to 2000 \r [...]"


id: f3bbef69666c9d358868bc02d7a7f8c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40260
content:
"Adaptation options to sea level rise in the Mediterranean include \r nature-based solutions, such as beach and shore nourishment, dune \r restoration, or ecosystem-based adaptation and restoration in low-lying \r coasts, lagoons, estuaries and deltas (Aragones et al., 2015; Aspe et al., \r 2016; Loizidou et al., 2016; Danovaro et al., 2018). Engineering plays a \r major role for coastal adaptation too, through breakwaters, seawalls, \r dykes, surge barriers and submerged breakwaters (Sancho-Garcia \r et al., 2013; Becchi et al., 2014; Balouin et al., 2015; Masria et al., 2015; \r Tsoukala et  al., 2015; Bouvier et  al., 2017). Many engineering-based \r coastal adaptation imply large residual impacts on coastal ecosystems \r (high confidence) (Micheli et  al., 2013; Masria et  al., 2015; Cooper \r et al., 2016; Bonnici et al., 2018). A sea surface height control dam at \r the Strait of Gibraltar has been proposed for mitigating sea level rise \r [...]"


id: ca126dafc6f11d4c883af0f1f63ed5cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32883
content:
"[...] in the Mediterranean, but this would likely involve major impacts on \r ecosystems and fisheries (Gower, 2015)."


id: aca398424a3250f6e27fcac5c5f33c2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27617
content:
"In the agriculture sector, improved efficiency of irrigation practices can \r be achieved by changing surface water irrigation for other techniques \r and shifting to more sustainable practices (Mrabet et  al., 2012; \r Benlhabib et al., 2014; Boari et al., 2015; Cosic et al., 2015; Guilherme \r et al., 2015; Iglesias and Garrote, 2015; Cantore et al., 2016; Triberti \r et al., 2016; AbdAllah et al., 2018; Billen et al., 2018; Iglesias et al., \r 2018; Malek and Verburg, 2018; Vargas and Paneque, 2019). Overall, \r the region could save 35% of water resources by improved irrigation \r techniques (Fader et al., 2016). However, maladaptive drip irrigation \r subsidies and developments can also result in the unsustainable use \r of groundwater resources and excessive agriculture intensification, \r indicating the need for careful strategic planning, regulation and \r monitoring of these options (Venot et al., 2017). In the livestock sector, \r [...]"


id: 28d6cac79e68db2dbf2d24eb382b525e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4402
content:
"[...] adaptation options for heat wave-induced mortality of animals include \r the choice of more resistant genetic provenances (Rojas-Downing \r et al., 2017)."


id: 329591c27042a2521c1b4da99ad12fbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6159
content:
"Regional adaptation initiatives occur in a highly asymmetric geographic \r context characterised by contrasting demographic, environmental and \r socioeconomic trends in the southern, eastern and northern parts of the \r Mediterranean Basin (Pausas and Fernandez-Munoz, 2012). Adaptation \r plans in Mediterranean countries are also limited by a lack of effective \r regional governance schemes (with the partial exception of European \r countries subject to the European directives and strategies), hampering \r the effective implementation of regionally harmonised adaptation \r strategies, plans and quantitative targets (UNEP/MAP, 2016; Sachs \r et al., 2019). Adaptation to sea level rise is essentially limited by social \r barriers along urban coasts in the northwest Mediterranean at present \r (Hinkel et al., 2018), while the adaptation dilemma involving economic \r and financial barriers is greater in peri-urban, rural and natural areas, \r [...]"


id: 170dfeee808ab296ebbb3904016a9e32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1273
content:
"[...] as well as in the southern and eastern Mediterranean. In addition, \r limited regional monitoring of risks and adaptation options hampers \r adaptation in domains and sectors (Cramer et al., 2018)."


id: ec2585d87137b4a528e4c09fddf4f25
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38919
content:
"In the Mediterranean region, vulnerability is strongly affected by \r equity: people most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are \r the elderly, especially women (Iniguez et  al., 2016; Achebak et  al., \r 2018) and children, who are often strongly affected by climate change \r (Watts et  al., 2019). An increase of heat waves poses a significant \r health risk especially for young children living in urban areas (UNICEF, \r 2014; Perera, 2017; Roye, 2017) and for elderly women, in particular \r those affected by other conditions such as respiratory diseases (Sellers, \r 2016; Achebak et al., 2018). Children and future generations in eastern \r Mediterranean countries are those most at risk of food insecurity, in \r both quantity and quality (Prosperi et al., 2014). In the region, many \r children are particularly vulnerable due to scarcity of drinking water \r and food, aggravated by droughts and flooding (Philipsborn and Chan, \r [...]"


id: aa2a1f01f2c7d1c7628e0c7f3bb09a69
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27160
content:
"[...] 2018). The potential for adaptation to and preparation for vector\u0002borne diseases and other health risks, expected to increase with \r climate change, differs among Mediterranean countries (Negev et al., \r 2015). Climate change in the Mediterranean region also impacts some \r groups disproportionately (e.g., poor farmers, urban migrants, seasonal \r workers) and livelihoods (Waha et al., 2017), favouring mobility and \r migration (Nori and Farinella, 2020)."


id: a2c3475f38a5c0b821fbd7b1be725f88
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25853
content:
"Without drastic mitigation of climate change, sea level rise is projected to accelerate and will require additional \r coastal engineering protection projects (e.g., dykes or groynes). Despite their efficiency for the few next decades, \r these engineering options have also adverse impacts for coastal ecosystems and may not ensure that the recreative \r value of Mediterranean coasts can be sustained (see Box 13.1 on Venice on the movable barriers protecting the \r Venice Lagoon). Among nature-based solutions, there are immediate benefits of restoring dunes and coastal \r wetlands to restore a buffer zone between coastal infrastructure and the sea and therefore reduce coastal risks \r (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3). Yet, this kind of protection is not feasible everywhere, particularly in urbanised \r areas, where it faces its limits. The limits for adaptation in the Mediterranean to further acceleration of sea level \r [...]"


id: 4b343f2c89d0f9f96ceaaa08942c38c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10479
content:
"[...] rise have stimulated ideas of large-scale geoengineering projects such as surface height control dams at Gibraltar. \r However, such projects come with unknown risks for humans and ecosystems."


id: 11a89fb775fa13c91f7b4fbd40df017e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 297
content:
"Observed changes in seasonality (timing and extent) are \r negatively affecting mountain winter tourism and recreation \r (high confidence) and variably affect tourism and recreation \r activities in other seasons (medium confidence). For winter \r activities such as skiing, diminishing snow at lower elevations has \r challenged operating conditions (medium confidence), increasing the \r demand for and dependence on snow management measures such \r as snow-making (high confidence). Climate-induced hazards are \r negatively affecting some climbing, mountaineering and hiking routes \r (medium confidence). In some regions, options to change routes or \r shift seasons to reduce hazard exposure have been employed as \r adaptation strategies, with variable outcomes (medium confidence). In \r some cases, higher temperatures and extreme heat conditions at lower \r elevations have made some mountain destinations more appealing, \r increasing the potential for summer visitation demand (medium \r [...]"


id: e9dcbd27ef17e308201ec5eb252cf467
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38490
content:
"Changes in climate over short distances in mountains are reflected \r in large ecological gradients. AR5 reported new evidence that plant \r species of mid and low elevations were starting to colonise higher \r elevations in mountains. Since AR5, new studies have been published \r (e.g., Steinbauer et  al., 2018; Payne et  al., 2020), including in some \r previously less well studied areas such as the Andes (e.g., Morueta\u0002Holme et al., 2015; Baez et al., 2016) and parts of Asia (e.g., Telwala \r et al., 2013; Artemov, 2018). There is now high confidence that many \r plant species' distributions have shifted to higher elevations in recent \r decades, consistent with climatic warming (Sections 2.4.2, 10.4.2.1.1, \r 13.3.1.1). In recent years publications have also started to show similar \r trends in some animal species, including birds (Freeman et al., 2018; \r Bani et al., 2019; Lehikoinen et al., 2019) and snails (Baur and Baur, \r [...]"


id: d028474ccd18bb23d7ead6342ad7a141
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33982
content:
"[...] 2013). Other climatic variables besides temperature can also affect \r elevational limits of species (Section  2.4.2) and sometimes in ways \r that contrast with temperature, for example increasing precipitation \r can allow some species to occur at lower elevations in dry climates \r (Crimmins et al., 2011; Coals et al., 2018). Tsai et al. (2015) reported \r large changes in the montane bird community in Taiwan, which they \r link to changes in weather patterns, including more severe typhoons. \r Changes in the amplitude and frequency of bank vole population \r waves in the Ilmen Nature Reserve in the Middle Urals can be linked to \r longer frost-free periods (Kiseleva, 2020)."


id: bb969092031822a034431a986d20ac30
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30226
content:
"Changes in community composition are also happening within \r ecosystem types. Duque et  al. (2015) showed a change in the \r composition of northern Andean forests, and Feeley et  al. (2013) \r showed such a change in that of forests up to 2800 m in Costa Rica. \r In both cases the proportion of species adapted to warmer conditions \r increased, driven primarily by patterns of mortality, indicating that \r the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather \r than range shifts or expansions. An analysis of 200 forest inventory \r plots in the Andes likewise indicated a widespread, though not \r ubiquitous, thermophilisation of tree species' composition (Fadrique \r et al., 2018). Within a period of 8 years (2003-2010), significant shifts \r in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds were found \r in Switzerland (Roth et  al., 2014). At lower elevations, communities \r of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, \r [...]"


id: 422266d4aa58d1312380b3f168123ee1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8838
content:
"[...] corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in \r plant, butterfly and bird communities respectively. However, rates of \r community change decreased with elevation in plants and butterflies, \r while bird communities shifted towards warm-dwelling species at all \r elevations (Roth et al., 2014)."


id: 76e5a00c5987cc1a4607e1ea5ddf6a3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18129
content:
"The risks posed by non-native species may increase with climate \r change (Carboni et al., 2018; Shrestha et al., 2018; Thapa et al., 2018). \r Koide et al. (2017) found that non-native plant species on Hawaii were \r moving to higher elevations, whereas native species' distributions \r were retracting at their lower elevational limit. Dainese et al. (2017) \r found that non-native plant species spread to higher elevations \r approximately twice as fast as native species. Following recent climate \r warming, invasive Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides\r (Poaceae) bamboo species in Japan have shifted northwards and \r upslope in the last three decades (Takano et al., 2017). New evidence \r has shown that variations in microclimate, with topography and cold \r groundwater seeps, can provide micro-refugia small areas of locally \r suitable conditions where cold-adapted species can survive (Bramer \r et al., 2018; Muhlfeld et al., 2020) (Section 2.6.2). Some alpine species \r [...]"


id: d80134c4013addd88a5b57614aa1f697
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35307
content:
"[...] have thrived in recent years, and the range of microclimates may partly \r explain this (Rumpf et al., 2018)."


id: a749c430f17f025047be56a5ebf88708
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26651
content:
"Treeline elevation is linked to temperature (Paulsen and Korner, 2014) \r but may also be affected by water supply (Sigdel et al., 2018; Lu et al., \r 2021) and land management. A recent summary of treeline shifts \r worldwide found that 67% of studied alpine treelines had shifted \r upwards while 33% remained stable (based on 142 published studies), \r and 88.8% of the 143 undisturbed alpine treelines across the Northern \r Hemisphere had shifted upwards (Hansson et al., 2021; Lu et al., 2021). \r Since AR5, new evidence of shifting treeline ecotones has emerged \r for a wide variety of species in different locations, including in Siberia \r (Pospelova et al., 2017), various parts of the Ural Mountains (Shiyatov \r and Mazepa, 2015; Zolotareva and Zolotarev, 2017; Sannikov et al., \r 2018), in the Canadian Rocky Mountains (Trant et al., 2020) and the \r Himalaya (Tiwari and Joshi, 2015; Chakraborty et  al., 2016; Gaire, \r 2016; Yadava et al., 2017). Recent studies of treelines that have not \r [...]"


id: a2c48638aa551785ac9c8915899c0db3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25855
content:
"[...] or hardly shifted include those in the Himalaya (Singh et  al., 2015; \r Sigdel et al., 2018), eastern Tibetan Plateau (Wang et al., 2020) and \r the Andes (Lutz et al., 2014). Migration rates are not proceeding as fast \r as warming rates, implying other processes also limit treeline ecotone \r response (e.g., Sigdel et al., 2020; Lu et al., 2021)."


id: 61efbc8ef95098d3bce61496c8dae378
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14505
content:
"Mountain river systems are especially sensitive to and affected by \r climate change and continuing anthropogenic disturbance, including \r water pollution, hydropower development, water withdrawals \r for agriculture and human consumption and biodiversity loss and \r ecosystem changes (high confidence) (Honda and Durigan, 2016; \r Encalada et al., 2019; Bissenbayeva et al., 2021; Chen et al., 2021). The \r effects of climate and cryosphere change in mountains on downstream \r water and river systems have been studied and quantified for many \r regions worldwide (Barnett et al., 2005; Huss, 2011; Lutz et al., 2014; \r O'Neel et al., 2015; Huss and Hock, 2018). Comprehensive approaches \r focusing on both water demand and supply aspects provide regionally \r or locally specified information on water availability, scarcity and \r security (Buytaert et al., 2014; Drenkhan et al., 2015; Brunner et al., \r 2019) (Chapter 4). Present and potential future hotspot regions of \r [...]"


id: b9b9a3e58b7b4bc24b25acb30b967456
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29886
content:
"[...] water scarcity that rely heavily on mountainous water sources include \r Central Asia, South Asia, tropical and subtropical western South \r America and southwestern North America (robust evidence, medium \r agreement) (Kummu et  al., 2016; Biemans et  al., 2019; Immerzeel \r et al., 2020; Viviroli et al., 2020)."


id: 58a77734a7685951727ed86a10cb6cb2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12841
content:
"Both small-scale interventions (e.g., livestock grazing in sensitive \r high-elevation wetlands) and high-investment interventions (e.g., \r hydropower dams and plants) in upstream regions can strongly affect \r water availability, river connectivity, biodiversity and catchment \r management (Anderson et al., 2018; Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, \r 2018; Encalada et al., 2019) and are often contested and have led to \r conflict (medium evidence, high agreement) (Drenkhan et  al., 2015; \r French et  al., 2015). Climate change often exacerbates tensions or \r conflicts between different users over water at local, national and \r transboundary or regional scales, and many tensions and social or \r political conflicts are documented, especially in seasonally dry regions, \r where large power inequalities exist among users, where clear and \r established regulations are lacking, and especially in transboundary \r settings (e.g., Central Asia, Hindu Kush Himalaya [HKH], Andes) (Carey \r [...]"


id: 9e1dbf04ab6a4b537b4845b6c04c6083
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25051
content:
"[...] et al., 2014; Bocchiola et al., 2017; Yapiyev et al., 2017; Hock et al., \r 2019; Mukherji et al., 2019)."


id: 875fd61778742433c9c94db3ed49f464
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20976
content:
"Many mountain regions have one or more cryosphere components \r (glaciers, permafrost and perennial or seasonal snow), and the \r mountain cryosphere is among the natural systems most sensitive \r to climate change worldwide (high confidence). The SROCC assessed \r a decline in all cryosphere components due to climate change over \r recent decades, i.e., for low-elevation snow cover (high confidence), \r permafrost (high confidence) and glaciers (very high confidence) (Hock \r et al., 2019). More recent studies using globally more complete data \r sets show a considerably higher glacier mass loss (267 +-16 Gt yr-1) for \r 2000-2019 as compared to a (very likely2\r ) range of 123 +-24 Gt yr-1\r for 2006-2015 in SROCC, with a mass loss acceleration of 48 +-16 Gt \r yr-1 per decade over 2000-2019 (Hugonnet et al., 2021). Assessment \r conclusions in SROCC found with high confidence that glacier \r shrinkage and snow cover changes over the past two decades have \r [...]"


id: c46ab4bf1a777e308bd3b2803b1703d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31859
content:
"[...] led to changes in the amount and timing of runoff in many mountain \r regions (Hock et al., 2019)."


id: 627fec61e99cc56c1de200c41e1e2358
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14617
content:
"Montane and sub-alpine ecosystems have variable ecological responses to fire that are ultimately influenced by long-term, historical \r fire regimes and the evolutionary forces that have governed post-fire regeneration strategies of the biota. Two contrasting strategies in \r temperate forests are illustrated here. SE Australian mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests are adapted to a high-severity fire regime, \r consisting of infrequent (>100 years), large stand-replacing wildfires (Bowman et al., 2016). Mountain ash is a long-lived obligate seeder \r but is slow to reach reproductive maturity (>20 years) (Bowman et al., 2016). As such, natural post-fire regeneration takes decades to \r centuries to recover to pre-fire conditions, and if fire reoccurs before reproductive maturity is reached, the species can be eliminated. By \r contrast, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the SW United States have evolved with a low- or mixed-severity fire regime, where \r [...]"


id: a92a7fbc1ea1444e0d8769931f6c31ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26986
content:
"[...] fire is frequent (5-25 years), of low intensity, less likely to kill dominant stands and, thus, allow faster post-fire recovery (Prichard et al., \r 2017). However, post-fire recovery times in this ecosystem are also becoming longer due to a century of effective fire suppression, shifting \r the fire regime to one which is more infrequent, of high intensity, extensive and stand replacing (Prichard et al., 2017)."


id: b1f25e83ca07760a41feb76e49c1916f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28528
content:
"Above the treeline, fire is less common than in foothill forests. Post-fire recovery times also tend to be shorter (Williams et al., 2008; \r Camac et al., 2013; Verrall and Pickering, 2019) because of the dual influences of low flammability traits coupled with the fact that \r most alpine plant species exhibit strong resprouting strategies that have evolved in response to harsh climate conditions (Korner, 2003). \r However, fires in alpine treeless landscapes can still have long-term and catastrophic impacts on fire-sensitive vegetation types such \r as groundwater-dependent wetlands dominated by hygrophilous plants and peat soils (De Roos et al., 2018). Similar impacts can be \r severe on long-lived, slow-growing vegetation such as coniferous heathlands (Bowman et al., 2019) and highly restricted and threatened \r fauna (e.g., mountain pygmy possum) that depend on these plant communities (Gibson et al., 2018). Such fires have even been found \r [...]"


id: 31c1dfb2d6e2292406ffbc453e47d188
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6000
content:
"[...] to significantly impact sub-alpine treeline mortality rates (Fairman et al., 2017) and in some cases have resulted in treelines shifting to \r lower elevations (e.g., Hemp, 2005)."


id: ac44aa49920bc4c7cd163cc4fb9bf50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27553
content:
"The long-term implications of a warmer global climate, coupled with more frequent and/or severe fires in mountain ecosystems, are \r expected to be transformative for mountain biota. Fire-sensitive montane forests, such as Australia's alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), \r are expected to become highly susceptible to population collapse and local extinction as intervals between fire events contract and \r become too short for species to reach reproductive maturity (Bowman et al., 2014; Enright et al., 2015)--an impact that will likely be \r further exacerbated by recruitment failure caused by post-fire drought and moisture deficiencies (Davies et al., 2019; Halofsky et al., 2020; \r Rodman et al., 2020). Fire and climate change are also likely to act synergistically in mountainous ecosystems, via positive feedbacks that \r increase fire frequency by changing vegetation composition to more flammable fuel types, thereby increasing landscape susceptibility \r [...]"


id: f107b7512429aec3387188eddb37a799
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39779
content:
"[...] to future fire (Camac et al., 2017; Tepley et al., 2018; Zylstra, 2018; Lucas and Harris, 2021). More frequent fires in these ecosystems will \r also exacerbate native and exotic species invasions (Catford et al., 2009; McDougall et al., 2011; Gottfried et al., 2012; Kueffer et al., \r 2013), faunal population declines (Ward et al., 2020), poor air quality (de la Barrera et al., 2018; Burke et al., 2021) and soil erosion and \r landslide risk (de la Barrera et al., 2018) and reduce freshwater catchment volumes and quality (Rust et al., 2018; Niemeyer et al., 2020), \r all of which will impact negatively on human health and well-being (Ebi et al., 2021)."


id: e118e6589887ebb861ac4ed65c468ddd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36869
content:
"With respect to hydropower, mountains play a unique role in the \r production of renewable energy for large downstream populations, but \r it also comes with important trade-offs affecting mountain ecosystems \r and populations (high confidence) (Farinotti et  al., 2019; Viviroli \r et al., 2020; Vaidya et al., 2021). Climate change requires adaptation \r in the hydropower sector; for instance, some advocate for increased \r water storage in dams and the importance of mountains for pumped \r hydropower storage systems (Gurung et al., 2016; Hunt et al., 2020), \r while others emphasise adaptive water management (Gaudard et al., \r 2014; Caruso et al., 2017b). An example is the multi-purpose use of \r water strategies where water management storage is designed to \r accommodate different uses, including hydropower, agriculture and \r flood risk reduction (Haeberli et  al., 2016a; Drenkhan et  al., 2019) \r (Section 12.6.3). Hydropower is also especially vulnerable to glacier \r [...]"


id: ad2b0552a86ef56d8c3728fed769fa6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27706
content:
"[...] and snow decline (Schaefli et al., 2019) and is subject to risks from \r extreme events (Rangecroft et  al., 2013; Schwanghart et  al., 2016; \r Mishra et al., 2020; Shugar et al., 2021), social and political opposition \r (Ahlers et  al., 2015; Diaz et  al., 2017) and the resulting financial \r uncertainty for hydropower investors. There is still limited evidence\r on how climate change impacts wind, solar and biomass energy \r production and their use."


id: 3d0b99dc8ef08a69d994d87d193a2c4c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7923
content:
"Climate change and its associated impacts on multiple ecosystem \r services and related products (timber production, carbon \r sequestration, biodiversity and protection against natural hazards) \r have been observed across European mountains, for example in the \r central Iberian Mountains (Spain), Western and Eastern Alps (France, \r Austria) and Dinaric Mountains (Slovenia) (Mina et al., 2017). Dumont \r et  al. (2015) demonstrated that climate change negatively affects \r forage nitrogen (N) content by 8% but increases total non-structural \r carbohydrate content by 25% in European mountains. Positive impacts \r have been reported on mushroom productivity in the mountains of \r Spain (Karavani et  al., 2018) (Section  5.7.3.3), yet negative impacts \r have been reported on the Ophiocordyceps in the Himalayan region \r (Hopping et  al., 2018), as well as on apple production in Himachal \r Pradesh, India, which declined by 9.4 t per hectare in the past two \r [...]"


id: aadf54fb1c84a24bd80252dc856c5cc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27290
content:
"[...] decades (Das, 2021). Shifts in the richness of crop wild relatives from \r south to north and an increase in the numbers of threatened taxa with \r an increase of 1.5degC and 3degC temperature rise have been observed in \r European mountains (Phillips et al., 2017)."


id: 7df1b1f5878ac9ce03ccba81cbcb7f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19339
content:
"Medicinal and aromatic plants and their secondary metabolites are \r also observed to be affected by climate change (medium confidence) \r (Das et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2019a). Phenological changes like early \r flowering and reduced vegetative phase are negatively affecting the \r productivity of such plants (Harish et  al., 2012; Gaira et  al., 2014; \r Maikhuri et  al., 2018). While increasing atmospheric temperature \r and CO2 are reported to improve the biomass of Gynostemma \r pentaphyllum (Chang et  al., 2016) (Section  5.7.3.3), they adversely \r affect its antioxidant compounds/activity, health-promoting properties \r and phytochemical content (Gairola et al., 2010; Das et al., 2016; Kumar \r et  al., 2020). Experimental trials have shown that when medicinal \r plants are stressed by drought, phytochemical content increases, either \r by a decrease in biomass or by an increase in the actual production of \r [...]"


id: c3f21533894aa97f9eba634d143f4c9c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31754
content:
"[...] metabolites (medium confidence) (Selmar and Kleinwachter, 2013; Al\u0002Gabbiesh et al., 2015). The strong effects of climatic and non-climatic "


id: 1800c8ef38766be1a2697f859a37858b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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vector_id: 1425
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"Mountain settlements and people are globally distributed and \r represent a significant proportion of the total global population that is \r exposed to the effects of climate change (Section CCP5.1, SMCCP5.1). \r Cities with one or several million inhabitants located in mountainous \r environments or at high elevations are predominantly found in Latin \r America (e.g., El Alto and La Paz, Bolivia; Quito, Ecuador; Mexico \r City, Mexico; and Bogota, Colombia), Asia (e.g., Kabul, Afghanistan; \r Kathmandu, Nepal; Srinagar and Dehradun, India; Peshawar and \r Quetta, Pakistan; and Xining and Kunming, China) and Africa (e.g., \r Harare, Zimbabwe; and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia) (Wang and Lu, 2018; \r Balderas Torres et al., 2021; Ehrlich et al., 2021). Mountain regions are \r also host to many settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants \r (Alfthan et  al., 2016). In many cases, particularly in developing \r [...]"


id: 14854b76b2e4076634d83367aa59bb3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] countries, portions of the population also reside in informal and low\u0002income settlements (French et al., 2021), where rates of poverty and \r inequality exacerbate people's vulnerability and exposure to climate\u0002related hazards such as landslides (Alfthan et  al. 2018) (Section \r CCP5.2.5.1), environmental pollution or even pandemic diseases \r (Marazziti et al., 2021)."


id: 9622ab69980b94044471c376d6c1ca4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23606
content:
"Floods, debris flows, landslides and avalanches are the most frequent \r hazards affecting the highest number of people in mountain regions \r (medium confidence) (Staubli et  al., 2018). Landslides count among \r the deadliest hazards globally, with over 150,000 reported fatalities \r for the period 1995-2014 (Haque et al., 2019). There is high confidence\r that the number of fatalities from landslides has increased globally \r over the past 20 years (Froude and Petley, 2018; Haque et al., 2019), \r but there is limited evidence that this is due to changes in landslide \r event frequency and/or magnitude. Infrastructure expansion on \r unstable terrain can increase disaster risk (Zimmermann and Keiler, \r 2015; Huggel et al., 2019; Kirschbaum et al., 2019; Schauwecker et al., \r 2019; Terzi et al., 2019; Motschmann et al., 2020a; Shugar et al., 2021). \r A study from western Nepal concludes that the exposure of people and \r [...]"


id: 108398c17f7ca9c1a368a621ec485953
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"[...] infrastructure to hazards has been the main cause of disasters (Munoz\u0002Torrero Manchado et al., 2021). Decreasing numbers of fatalities from \r disasters resulting from decreasing vulnerabilities have been reported \r in Europe and North America (Section 13.2.2.1) (Gariano and Guzzetti, \r 2016; Strouth and McDougall, 2021). Evidence from Africa suggests \r that disasters from climate-induced natural hazards in mountain areas \r are often due to droughts, pests and changes in rainfall and associated \r impacts on smallholder farmers' agricultural livelihoods (Shikuku et al., \r 2017)."


id: e5ceae5a09a6902915e7c4fbbb3665bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In many mountain regions, particularly in developing countries, the \r increasing urban population has put considerable pressure on water \r services and basic amenities for urban dwellers (Singh et al., 2021), \r for example in cities such as La Paz (Kinouchi et al., 2019), which are \r regions already under pressure due to the negative effects of climate \r change, coupled with poor water availability and governance (Chapter \r 4; CCP5.2.2.1; FAQ CCP5.1; Hock et al. 2019). In many areas of the HKH \r region, water demand far exceeds municipal supply, and people cope \r with water insecurity in a variety of ways (Bharti et al., 2020; Sharma \r et al., 2020; Singh et al., 2020), such as by resorting to interbasin water \r transfers and deep pumping, to supply their water needs (Ojha et al., \r 2020). Additionally, influxes of migrants, tourists and retirees, combined \r with the growth of the incumbent population, place considerable stress \r [...]"


id: 834f23441dd2bf2cf0f0f9cec9c5f1bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20230
content:
"[...] on urban infrastructures that must supply adequate clean water and \r provide for sewage disposal (Prakash and Molden, 2020), which is also \r observable in other regions (Chapter 4; Section 6.4.7; Case Study 6.1 \r in Chapter 6). Energy provision in and around mountain settlements \r is another key sector affected by climate-related impacts (Hock et al., \r 2019; CCP5.2.2.2), which bears relevance for the adaptation prospects \r for urban mountain settlements (medium confidence)."


id: c908d9a86e85e2aa56fb74d1fe1ae7c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32688
content:
"Most adaptation responses to natural hazards in mountain regions are \r reactive to specific climate stimuli or post-disaster recovery (robust \r evidence, medium agreement) (McDowell et  al., 2019; Rasul et  al., \r 2020). Hard structural measures such as dikes, dam reservoirs and \r embankments have been widely employed to contain hazards, along \r with early warning systems, zonation and land management (Box 4.1, \r 10.4.4.5, 12.5.3 and 13.2.2). Awareness raising, preparedness and \r disaster response plans are increasingly used in the context of more \r unpredictable hazard trends (see Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter \r 17) (Allen et al., 2016, 2018; Hovelsrud et al., 2018). Ecosystem-based \r adaptations (EBAs) are widely implemented to mitigate risks from \r shallow landslides (e.g., afforestation and reforestation and improved \r forest management), floods (e.g., river restoration and renaturation) \r (Renaud et al., 2016; Klein et al., 2019b) and droughts (e.g., adapting \r [...]"


id: 8622ed81ad31b51d8f66e6fd0022bbee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climate change impacts have been documented in mountains on all \r continents. A wide range of human and natural systems have been \r affected by climate change to date, including the cryosphere, water \r resources, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, tourism, \r energy production, infrastructure, health and life, migration, disasters \r and community and cultural values. The confidence levels for the \r detection of impacts are generally in the range of medium to high. The \r contribution of climate change to detected impacts varies depending \r on the affected system and on climatic and non-climatic drivers. The \r highest levels of confidence for the attribution of detected impacts \r to anthropogenic climate change are related to the cryosphere. More \r generally, those impacts are more strongly driven by increasing \r temperatures and show higher confidence for attribution than \r those impacts driven mainly by precipitation changes. The level of \r [...]"


id: 421c43e48efa933ad959820dbc12a280
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8829
content:
"[...] contribution of climate change to observed impacts is predominantly \r medium or high, indicating the high sensitivity of natural and human \r systems in mountains to climate change. Furthermore, the vast majority \r of detected impacts imply negative impacts on natural and human \r systems (high confidence)."


id: d6840dbf8fde7fbc37abbccac21abda5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35049
content:
"Figure CCP5.4 |  Synthesis of detection and attribution of impacts of anthropogenic climate change on different natural and human systems in mountain \r regions. For each system and region assessed, the level of confidence for detection and for attribution to anthropogenic climate change is indicated. Also indicated is how strong \r the contribution of climate change is to the observed changes, considering climatic and non-climatic causal factors. Observed impacts were analysed in terms of negative impacts \r (e.g., economic or non-economic damages, losses, contribution to increasing risks for society), where the numbers refer to the percentage of references indicating negative impacts \r for a given impact. The percentage of local community perception indicates the percentage of all literature references for a given system and region that account for local knowledge. \r [...]"


id: 6f2172a9fdddb3a8a701883ced714602
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16821
content:
"[...] The number of references refers to the total number of literature references considered for an impact on a specific system and region. 'Not assessed' refers to limited evidence in \r the literature (SMCCP5.2 and Table SMCCP5.5-5.14)."


id: f115a37977a33e5f71428216d4adaf10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Water resources in mountains and dependent lowlands will continue \r to be strongly impacted by climate change throughout the 21st \r century (high confidence). The difference in impacts will be particularly \r strong in regions that greatly depend on glacier and snowmelt and, in \r pronounced dry seasons (high confidence), in regions including Central \r Asia, South Asia, tropical and subtropical western South America and \r southwestern North America (Huss and Hock, 2018; Hock et al., 2019; \r Immerzeel et al., 2020). Glaciers are expected to continue to lose mass \r throughout the 21st century, with higher mass loss under high emission \r scenarios (AR6 WGI Chapter 9 (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021)). Many low\u0002elevation and small glaciers around the world will lose most of their \r total mass at 1.5degC GWL (high confidence) (Marzeion et  al., 2018; \r Vuille et al., 2018; Hock et al., 2019; Zekollari et al., 2020; Fox-Kemper \r [...]"


id: d7c6b7288af180caf7f0af0a7c561c10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"[...] et al., 2021) (WGI 9.5). For tropical and mid-latitude mountains, around \r half of the current ice mass can be preserved under low-emission \r scenarios, while between two-thirds and up to more than 90% will be \r lost under high emission scenarios compared to the 2000s (medium \r confidence) (Schauwecker et al., 2017; Vuille et al., 2018; Hock et al., \r 2019; Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021) (WGI 9.5). Significant differences in \r impacts between the emission scenarios have also been assessed for \r declines in snow depth or mass at lower elevations [10 to 40% for \r RCP2.6 and 50 to 90% for RCP 8.5 by the end of the century (Hock \r et al., 2019)]. However, limitations in long-term climate, glaciological \r and hydrological monitoring data add uncertainty to the current \r understanding and adaptation support, for example, when peak \r water is reached in different mountain catchments (Salzmann et al., \r 2014; Hock et  al., 2019). Furthermore, context-specific sociocultural \r [...]"


id: 752afc2e20fc806c99b3eb453e0d21cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17850
content:
"[...] and economic factors can magnify or moderate impacts related to \r hydrological change (McDowell et al., 2021a)."


id: 5460d2b7a1c62b91634c6aff99b18fcf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12124
content:
"The dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources \r will grow by mid-century across several climate and socioeconomic \r scenarios, and several seasonally dry or semiarid mountain regions \r (e.g., parts of South Asia, North America) are projected to be highly \r dependent on such resources (medium confidence) (Viviroli et al., 2020) \r (Figure  CCP5.2). Changing sediment, nutrient and pollutant flows \r due to climatic and non-climatic drivers will impact populations and \r economic sectors (medium evidence, high agreement). Hydropower in \r all mountain regions will experience higher fluxes of water and sediment \r in some seasons but lower water flow with demand from other water \r uses (e.g., irrigation) (Chevallier et al., 2011) in other seasons (Beniston \r and Stoffel, 2014; Gaudard et al., 2014; Majone et al., 2016; Caruso \r et al., 2017a, b; Patro et al., 2018). Recharge from groundwater and its \r buffer function is expected to decrease in the longer term (Somers and \r [...]"


id: 2b8cc87ab036241742cccc854800c726
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] McKenzie, 2020). Glacier and snow depth or mass decline will impact \r current hydropower facilities and production in various complex ways, \r requiring changes in hydropower management, with further potential \r for evidence-informed solutions (Gaudard et al., 2014; Schaefli, 2015; \r Schaefli et  al., 2019). On the other hand, deglaciation in mountain \r regions opens topographic space and, thus, potential for additional \r long-term hydropower development and production (Haeberli et  al., \r 2016a), with an estimated additional production of up to several \r hundred terawatt-hours per year, a potentially important contribution "


id: eef027d2edbbf313eb334849e88bdae0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39405
content:
"Climate change impacts on food, fibre and ecosystem products will be \r highly variable across mountain regions (medium confidence) (Briner \r et al., 2013; Rasul and Hussain, 2015; Mina et al., 2017; Palomo, 2017; \r Said et al., 2019; Xenarios et al., 2019) (Sections 10.4, 12.3, 13.5 and \r 14.4). In some regions, tree crops that are cultivated at certain elevations \r may reach the limit of their agroclimatic plasticity, for instance for crop \r types that require winter chills and where projected growing conditions \r are too warm (Buerkert et al., 2020). In the European Alps, agricultural \r production in some areas may benefit from temperature rises, as total \r productivity in grasslands is projected to increase (Mitter et al., 2015; \r Gruneis et al., 2018), whereas some areas in Asia and South America \r heavily dependent on glacier- and snow-fed irrigation will be at risk of \r food insecurity (Rasul and Molden, 2019). In a study in Eastern Pamir, \r [...]"


id: 7821f65583cab22d0cf1e3b57393a622
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18348
content:
"[...] Metrak et al. (2017) found that summer droughts and water changes \r lead to functional transformations of the wetland ecosystems which \r can affect food security of the local population. Climate change affects \r the phenology of plants (Harish et al., 2012; Gaira et al., 2014; Maikhuri "


id: 16fce1c67ac3adfce8e839a75b53fb42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1263
content:
"Since SROCC (Hock et al., 2019), several new studies have addressed \r projected impacts of future climate change on snow reliability in \r ski resorts, complementing previous findings or bridging existing \r knowledge gaps for winter tourism. This includes, in particular, \r new studies for China (An et  al., 2019; Fang et  al., 2019), showing \r that average ski seasons are projected to shorten (-4 to -61% for \r RCP4.5; -6 to -79% RCP8.5 in the 2050s) along with increases \r in snow-making water demand (27 to 51% for RCP4.5; 46 to 80% \r for RCP8.5 in the 2050s), with large differences across the country. \r Changes in future snow reliability are projected across Europe at the \r national or pan-European scale (Demiroglu et al., 2019; Steiger and \r Scott, 2020; Morin et al., 2021), highlighting strong contrasts at the \r local (across ski resort size and/or elevation range, or local social or \r environmental context) and continental scales. Higher-latitude and \r [...]"


id: 7741fdac7056726c2c52e365831425d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18186
content:
"[...] high-elevation locations generally exhibit delayed declines in snow \r reliability compared to lower-latitude and lower-elevation locations \r (high confidence), consistent with assessment conclusions reached \r in SROCC (Hock et al., 2019). In general, climate change impacts and \r risks to ski tourism are found to be spatially heterogeneous, within and \r across local and international markets, with potential for significant \r disruptions to related socioeconomic sectors due to a growing \r mismatch between ski area supply and skier demand in the coming \r decades (high confidence) (Fang et al., 2019; Hock et al., 2019; Steiger \r et al., 2021). These disruptions are plausible, even though a fraction of \r current ski resorts could technically operate in comparatively favourable \r locations (elevation, latitude) and operating models (business models, \r sociocultural assets and conditions, governance) (Steiger et al., 2020)."


id: 832e49ba01c6719c2a91d48f5f225e63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20202
content:
"Future risk consequences considered to be severe include, for example, \r an increase of 10-20% compared to present of the population exposed \r to landslide activities in certain regions (e.g., High Mountain Asia) \r (Kirschbaum et al., 2020). This does not consider the expected increase \r in landslide activity relating to glacier and permafrost changes (Picarelli \r et al., 2021, SROCC Chapter 2 (Hock et al., 2019)), so it is expected \r to be a conservative estimate. Other severe consequences are on \r average a projected twofold increase in the number of people exposed \r to inland flooding between 2degC and 4degC, with the highest increases \r in South Asia, Southeast Asia and South America (high confidence\r in the direction of change and medium confidence in the absolute \r values because they are based on global studies) (Hirabayashi et al., \r 2013; Allen et al., 2016; Arnell and Gosling, 2016; Zheng et al., 2021). \r [...]"


id: 617a2de793be655a9eeeb2a5bfbd0320
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14447
content:
"[...] Therefore, high to very high risks are expected between 2degC and 4degC \r GWL in several mountain regions (red and violet shaded bars in Figure \r CCP5.5). Many regions are projected to experience high risks due to \r the timing (potentially for severe consequences to happen sooner \r rather than later), the magnitude in terms of number of people and \r infrastructure affected and the persistence of hazard conditions (Figure \r CCP5.5, AR6 WGI Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021)). Comparatively, \r more severe risk consequences are expected under SSP3 and/or SSP4 \r given the high population projections in certain regions compared to \r SSP1 (medium confidence) (Kirschbaum et al., 2020) (Figure CCP5.1)."


id: f9d9b4007d3cfb9d9ddb203a6593cc40
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41319
content:
"Severe damage and disruptions to people and infrastructure from \r floods are projected to increase in Northwestern South America \r (NWS), South Asia (SAS), Tibetan Plateau (TIB) and Central Asia (WCA) \r between 1.5degC and 3degC GWL, mainly driven by river floods and an \r increase in the number of glacial lakes with high potential for outburst \r (high confidence) (Drenkhan et al., 2019; Motschmann et al., 2020b; \r Furian et al., 2021; Zheng et al., 2021). For example, the formation of \r new lakes at the foot of steep icy peaks largely extends the hazard \r zones with respect to the earlier situation without lakes (Haeberli \r et  al., 2016b). Projected changes in ice and snowmelt, as well as \r seasonal increases in extreme rainfall and permafrost thaw, will favour \r chain reactions and cascading processes, which can have devastating \r downstream effects well beyond the site of the original event (high \r confidence) (Cui and Jia, 2015; Beniston et al., 2018; Terzi et al., 2019; \r [...]"


id: 25ed6c625def2778dd487e54979edd0b
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3852
content:
"[...] Vaidya et al., 2019; Shugar et al., 2021). The incidence of disasters is \r projected to increase in the future because some hazards will become \r more pervasive, with an increase in the exposure of people and \r infrastructure with future environmental and socioeconomic changes \r either contributing to reduce or enhance these disaster risks (medium \r confidence) (Klein et al., 2019b)."


id: 26c55005ff4bb408656626e8beddf79e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3974
content:
"being water stressed will increase by 50% to 100% in areas already \r currently water stressed (Munia et al., 2020). Hotspot regions are those \r with large lowland populations depending on essential mountain water \r resource contributions and include river catchments such as the Ganges, \r Brahmaputra, Meghna, Yangtze, Nile, Niger, Indus, Euphrates-Tigris or \r Pearl (high confidence) (Viviroli et  al., 2020) (Figure  CCP5.6). Limited \r governance and integrated management of water resources, power and \r gender inequalities and level of disruption of local community practices \r also contribute to making risks more severe (medium confidence) (Lynch, \r 2012; Boelens, 2014; Wijngaard et al., 2018; Scott et al., 2019; Immerzeel \r et  al., 2020). Consequences for hydropower are comparatively less \r severe than for agriculture and domestic/municipal use, although this \r depends on region and timing (see also Section 5.2.2.2). For example, a \r [...]"


id: 3f7fd46c1078def3f7f2ccc145e17187
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8361
content:
"[...] study shows low risk to hydropower production in High Mountain Asia \r until the end of the century and even for warming levels beyond 3degC \r (robust evidence, moderate agreement) (Mishra et al., 2020)."


id: ec7d731a2b828d245b6927cea849ec6e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38970
content:
"Adaptation responses in mountains are mainly incremental changes \r from existing practices (high confidence) (McDowell et al., 2019, 2021b; \r Rasul et al., 2020), signalling that the potential of current and planned \r adaptation responses to reduce risks in the future will not be adequate \r to mitigate high to very high risks. For example, measures to contain \r floods or landslides (KR1) are designed with specific magnitudes and \r types in mind, often assuming stationarity of return periods (Montanari \r and Koutsoyiannis, 2014; Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016). In the case of \r events showing decreasing return periods, risk mitigation standards \r need to be elevated to provide for more protection in the future \r (Felder et al., 2018; Francois et al., 2019). The portfolio of adaptation \r options to mitigate risks from changing water resources (KR2) is large \r but challenging and includes integrated catchment management, \r implementation of multiple use of water strategies, improved water \r [...]"


id: ee59b7fc7183ca2c59af84ef7d207729
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39306
content:
"[...] governance (including community-based and participatory water \r governance), overcoming power inequalities among users and sectors \r and balancing economic pressure and sustainable development (high \r confidence) (Bekchanov and Lamers, 2016; Yapiyev et al., 2017; Jalilov \r et al., 2018; Drenkhan et al., 2019; Allen et al., 2020; Aggarwal et al., \r 2021; Huang et al., 2021) (SMCCP5.3.2). There is limited evidence on \r the effectiveness of adaptation responses to reduce the severity of \r ecosystem change (KR3) (also see Section 16.3.1). Prevention rather \r than control and eradication efforts can contribute to curbing biological \r invasions of alien species in the short turn, whereas colonisation by \r native trees following land use abandonment can be more effective \r in the long run (Carboni et  al., 2018). Reducing intensified grazing, \r agricultural expansion and conservation management in buffer zones \r of protected areas can limit the altitudinal range shift of endemic \r [...]"


id: 28e3e065e45751661a2742a01f755c5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4413
content:
"The risk of intangible losses and loss of cultural values is associated \r with the decline of ice and snow cover and temperature increase, as \r well as the increase in intangible harm from hazards such as floods \r and droughts (high agreement, medium evidence) (Diemberger et al., \r 2015; Jurt et al., 2015; Vuille et al., 2018; Tschakert et al., 2019; Vander \r Naald, 2020). Losses are intangible because they characterise aspects \r which are difficult to quantify, i.e., loss of identity, loss of self-reliance, \r loss of rituals and traditions and place attachment (Allison, 2015; Baul \r and McDonald, 2015; Motschmann et al., 2020a; Schneiderbauer et al., \r 2021). A global systematic analysis of case studies shows that this risk \r is more prevalent in the Andes, the Himalaya and the Alps (Tschakert \r et  al., 2019). Often mentioned across studies is the loss of intrinsic \r memories and culture related to changes in world heritage landscapes \r [...]"


id: b9c5d3924c34b9f9e863d80f6a379d8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29895
content:
"[...] and iconic sites (Jurt et  al., 2015; Sherry et  al., 2018; Bosson et  al., \r 2019). Changes in hazard landscapes are also reported to contribute \r to the loss of peace of mind and loss of well-being (Diemberger et al., \r 2015). Overall, there is limited evidence but medium agreement that \r the risk of intangible losses and the loss of cultural identity will rapidly \r increase and that consequences will go from reversible damage to \r irreversible losses (Tschakert et al., 2019)."


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vector_id: 6365
content:
"Stakeholders such as local communities and government entities often \r prioritise different dimensions of climate-related risks (Lopez et  al., \r 2017; McDowell et al., 2020). Adaptation initiatives that identify locally \r relevant climate stressors and risks through knowledge co-production \r have the potential to be more acceptable and effective (medium \r evidence, high agreement) (Huggel et al., 2015; Muccione et al., 2016; \r Allen et al., 2018; Quincey et al., 2018; Balsiger et al., 2020; McDowell \r et al., 2020, 2021b) (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17). However, \r tenable co-production requires recognition of the validity and integrity \r of diverse knowledges systems, including those held by Indigenous \r Peoples and local communities, as well as the provision of sufficient \r time and resources for meaningful engagement between stakeholder \r groups (Howarth and Monasterolo, 2016; Bremer and Meisch, 2017; \r Schoolmeester and Verbist, 2018; McDowell et  al., 2019; Ford et  al., \r [...]"


id: 4658afaf79347c41d1da08e8f92e6a1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] 2020). Power imbalances and knowledge politics continue to impede \r the inclusion of historically underrepresented voices in adaptation \r planning and action (Ojha et al., 2016; Mills-Novoa et al., 2017). Citizen \r science plays an additional role in facilitating the inclusion of multiple \r knowledge traditions (Buytaert et  al., 2014; Dickerson-Lange et  al., \r 2016; Tellman et al., 2016; Njue et al., 2019)."


id: 8fd6bc5c106b5c06cbeeb993f4972dad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22515
content:
"With accelerating warming and compounding risks increasing above \r 1.5degC warming, the need for climate resilient development in mountains \r is evident and intricately linked to achieving the SDGs and equity (high \r confidence). In this context, Chapter 18 draws attention to climate \r resilient development pathways (CRDPs) as processes that strengthen \r sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty and reduce \r inequalities while promoting fair and cross-scalar adaptation and \r mitigation. Pathways that strengthen climate-resilient sustainable \r mountain development are starting to receive attention (Chelleri \r et  al., 2016; Trabacchi and Stadelmann, 2016; AlpineConvention, \r 2021). This section treats four domains of emerging evidence related \r to climate resilient development in mountains: 1) climate actions that \r support both adaptation and mitigation, 2) Indigenous knowledge \r and local knowledge in support of climate resilient development, 3) \r [...]"


id: 85d4acdc6d4ff0b955b3ab4981ba352e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20688
content:
"[...] climate resilient development in climate policy and planning and 4) \r mainstreaming of climate action into development pathways."


id: 12fb9a69fba0e5bca0185009e389798b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 545
content:
"There is growing evidence of the potential for coordination and \r monitoring networks to overcome existing data deficiencies, to fill \r knowledge gaps and to streamline implementation, all of which \r currently impede adaptation in mountains (Salzmann et  al., 2014; \r Muccione et  al., 2016; Ryan and Bustos, 2019; McDowell et  al., \r 2020; Shahgedanova et al., 2021; Thornton et al., 2021; Price et al., \r Accepted/In press). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence that key \r conventions related to mountains, such as the Alpine Climate Board \r (SROCC section 2.4 (Hock et  al., 2019)), provide opportunities for \r accelerating adaptation efforts through mainstreaming responses \r into other policies aimed at addressing climate-related risks (medium \r confidence) (Balsiger et  al., 2020). Regional cooperation among \r countries and transboundary landscape and river basin governance \r initiatives are an important mechanism for advancing adaptation in \r [...]"


id: 321af3f4176b8be91628f25a0024895a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6075
content:
"[...] mountains (high agreement, medium evidence) (Molden et al., 2017; \r Mishra et al., 2019; Balsiger et al., 2020), particularly as many mountain \r ranges and mountain ecosystem services are transboundary in nature."


id: 6838a3fefc97a89af6c87d377a0f03e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15603
content:
"Mountains are the home of many cultures and diverse Indigenous \r knowledge and local knowledge (systems), which can and do provide \r strong support for place-based integrated adaptation and mitigation \r strategies (Merino et  al., 2019). Indigenous knowledge and local \r knowledge reinforce community adaptive capacity, yet governance \r structures and processes, including the deliberate design and \r implementation of climate policy, can constrain that capacity from \r being realised (high confidence) (Hill, 2013; McDowell et  al., 2014; \r Wyborn et  al., 2015; Klepp and Chavez-Rodriguez, 2018; Lavorel \r et  al., 2019). Communities, particularly poor and remote mountain \r communities, are vulnerable to climate change, and there is a need for \r capacity-building in research, policy development and implementation \r to pursue climate resilient development (Manton and Stevenson, \r 2014). Climatic stressors and socioeconomic changes are changing \r [...]"


id: 47b5f45b517ef01286014d528474992b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9830
content:
"[...] traditional genderscapes in mountain communities (Goodrich et  al., \r 2019). There is increasing evidence on the roles that gendered \r diversity in knowledge, institutions and everyday practices can play in \r addressing barriers and creating opportunities for achieving resilience, \r adaptive capacity and sustainability in societies (Gioli et  al., 2014; \r Ravera et al., 2016; Su et al., 2017; Udas et al., 2018; Goodrich et al., \r 2019; Sujakhu et al., 2019)."


id: 204f838b7eb7b9a41abc0d668cd0c1f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2901
content:
"Sustainable and climate-resilient mountain development is predicated \r on effective and timely climate action building on cross-scalar \r partnerships among researchers, stakeholders and decision makers \r to jointly identify desired futures and pathways and assess trade\u0002offs and synergies between climate action and the SDGs (high \r agreement, medium evidence) (Klein et  al., 2019a; Pandey et  al., \r 2021). Understanding of the complexity of mountain ecosystems as \r well as path dependency from earlier and current decisions is of critical \r importance for the sustainable future of mountain regions (Satyal et al., \r 2017; Chanapathi and Thatikonda, 2020; Berkey et al., 2021). Framing \r pathways through questions such as for whom or for what is climate \r action positive and which trade-off should be accepted, and why can \r serve as a tool for addressing sustainable development goals while \r avoiding lock-ins or unsustainable path dependencies (Chelleri et al., \r [...]"


id: 32f810559f2c4faf7d88110f14fb2847
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6230
content:
"[...] 2016). Increasingly, climate action is mainstreamed into sustainable \r development, which signifies a shift from climate policy as an end \r point to a continuing process for managing change and facilitating \r long-term sustainable development. The Ethiopian government's \r climate-resilient green economy (CRGE) strategy is an example of such \r a shift (Simane and Bird, 2017) as are emerging initiatives to build \r back greener in response to COVID-19 impacts (Schipper et al., 2020)."


id: 1202b6e8ad0658c2f222349e410f64f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 357
content:
"The assessment presented in this CCP has several limitations, \r principally in terms of the amount of often fragmented and biased \r geographic coverage or lack of relevant thematic scope covered \r in the literature published since AR5 and SROCC. Key assessment \r limitations and relevant knowledge gaps identified in this CCP fall \r within the following broad categories: 1) detection and attribution of \r observed impacts to climate change, 2) limitations and uncertainties \r associated with predictive models of projected impacts and risks, 3) \r integrated and systems-oriented research on mountain ecosystem \r services and their limits under climate change and 4) measurable \r tracking of adaptation action implemented in mountain regions and \r their suitability for addressing climate risks. These are summarised in \r Table CCP5.3. While these limitations and assessment-relevant gaps \r in knowledge offer important caveats for the interpretation of this \r [...]"


id: d97f383a07cb96f96ed41120e16c503
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35563
content:
"[...] assessment; they also highlight prospects to address and improve the \r evidence basis in future assessments."


id: 237ffaeb9a9b8e6899ee7b857c2f127d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3446
content:
"River flow is a main source of freshwater both in mountain regions and downstream areas. Various sources contribute \r to it, including rainfall, snow and glacier melt and groundwater. Climate change affects these different sources in \r different ways. Climate change affects rainfall patterns, such as long-term increase or decrease, seasonal shifts or \r changes in rainfall intensity. Rising temperatures strongly influence snowmelt- and glacier-melt-generated river \r discharge; the snowmelt season starts earlier, less snow mass is available for melt, and snowmelt contribution to \r river flow thus decreases over the year. Whether rising temperatures produce meltwater from glaciers depends on \r the state and characteristics of the glaciers and the catchment basin. The concept of 'peak water' implies that, first, \r as glaciers shrink in response to a warmer climate, more meltwater is released until a turning point (peak water), \r [...]"


id: 3cc96a81ce87bfc4f0ef537a71419ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7878
content:
"[...] after which glaciers melt, and so its contribution to river flow decreases. In many mountain regions worldwide, \r glaciers and their basins have already passed peak water, and the runoff contribution of glaciers is on the decline. \r Glacier shrinkage not only influences river discharge but also water quality. In the Andes of Peru, for instance, it \r has been observed that retreating glaciers expose bedrock, resulting in more acid water because of minerals that \r dissolve from the rock. Mountain ecosystems are also affected by changing freshwater availability. For instance, \r high-elevation wetlands in the tropical Andes critically depend on glacier meltwater during the dry season, and the \r disappearance of this freshwater source results in ecosystem degradation."


id: e87e7375dbb5f8fac2b8d2430867f6a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38240
content:
"The availability of freshwater is a function of water supply and water demand, with the latter being determined by \r sectors such as agriculture, energy, industry or domestic use, as well as by competition among these sectors. Formal \r and informal water extraction and use prevail, and competition includes issues of inequality, power relations and \r asymmetry. Consequently, the effects of climate change on water resources, people and ecosystems are strongly \r modulated and often exacerbated by socioeconomic development and related water resource management. For \r example, the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in the European Alps, combined with declines and \r seasonal shifts of river runoff from snowmelt and glacier melt, are expected to result in growing competition among \r different sectors, such as hydropower, agriculture and tourism. Similar developments are projected or have already \r [...]"


id: b9b1dcb28695d38d958e35e6766813ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29883
content:
"[...] been observed in many other mountain regions. This situation calls for strengthening and improving negotiation \r formats for water management that are transparent, equitable and socially and environmentally just. Management \r of water demand and strategies that entail multiple uses of water will become increasingly important in this context."


id: f5cdd4d46653efba52d4d933622ad319
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40606
content:
"With increasing average global temperatures, the climatic conditions under which plants and animals can thrive are \r shifting to higher elevations. The movement of some plant taxa towards mountain tops has been observed in recent \r decades. However, for species restricted to the highest elevations, there is nowhere to move to, meaning they are \r increasingly at risk of extinction. Climatic conditions may exceed the physiological limits for species and habitats \r may become unsuitable for others. There is also a risk from competition with colonising native species and invading \r non-native species, spreading to higher elevations, and some species cannot move quickly enough to keep pace \r with changes in the climate. The most vulnerable species are those that reproduce and disperse slowly and those \r that are isolated on mountain tops, including endemic species, which may face global extinction. In other cases, \r [...]"


id: 530e15928e5966f74faa5e3ab5ac2d38
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11879
content:
"[...] species will be lost from some parts of their current range. Mountains can, however, allow other species to survive \r in areas where they otherwise would not because of small-scale variations in climate with elevation or different \r aspects of slopes."


id: ac6df2ab733872f1773dba2c4800491f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27575
content:
"In many mountain regions, multiple sources of evidence point to tree expansions into treeless areas above (and in \r some cases below) the forest belt. This may increase forest productivity at the upper treeline. Treelines have moved \r up in the last 30-100 years in many mountain regions, including, for example, the Andes, Urals and Altai. At the \r same time, since the 1990s, treeline responses in different parts of the Himalaya have been highly variable, in some \r places advancing upslope, in others demonstrating little change and in yet others moving downwards. This can be \r explained by site-specific complex interactions of the positive effects of warming on tree growth, drought stress, \r change in snow precipitation, land use change, especially grazing, and other factors. Treelines are affected by land \r use and management around the globe, and changing land use practices can supersede climate change effects in \r [...]"


id: f3d9fb50b21b9f8a4e928482b005160e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40281
content:
"[...] some mountain regions. An upward shift in the elevation of bioclimatic zones, decreases in the area of the highest \r elevation zones and an expansion of the lower zones can be expected by mid-century, for example in regions such \r as the Himalaya."


id: caa6b993d3faddd3eb0d9fd9e02f7301
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32992
content:
"Underlying environmental conditions, such as limited space, shallow soils, exposure to numerous hazards, \r climate-sensitive ecosystems and isolation, make it particularly difficult to implement adaptation at scales relevant \r for implementation. Common adaptation options are often implemented at the individual, household or community \r level. These options are incremental and have generated observable results and outcomes. Adaptation actions that \r involve partial changes that do not dramatically alter established practices and behaviours seem to have better \r chances of being implemented than systemic or structural changes. Formal or planned adaptation efforts that \r are more institutionally driven constitute only a small proportion of observed adaptation in mountain regions. \r Where adaptation options are implemented, they often target not only climate change but an array of other \r [...]"


id: 8625e9042bc4accc9331769f1d93d174
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20750
content:
"[...] issues, priorities and pressures experienced by and in those communities (e.g., livelihood diversification in farming \r practices)."


id: 4e6bbdf5ff5e04cf2b0a60efa637838d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The polar regions, notably the Arctic and maritime Antarctic, are \r experiencing impacts from climate change at magnitudes and \r rates that are among the highest in the world, and will become \r profoundly different in the near-term future (by 2050) under \r all warming scenarios (high confidence). In the Arctic, accelerated \r sea ice loss (particularly during summer), increased permafrost thaw \r and extreme high temperatures have substantially impacted marine, \r freshwater and terrestrial sociological-ecological systems (very high \r confidence). Multiple physical, ecological and societal elements of \r polar regions are approaching a level of change potentially irreversible \r for hundreds of years, if not millennia (high confidence). Evidence \r of borealisation of terrestrial and marine systems is emerging (high \r confidence), and cascading impacts are ongoing and widespread yet \r challenging to quantify fully due to complexity and lags in ecological \r [...]"


id: 891502c08f97ec13a6c81c9f966ceb43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21285
content:
"[...] expression of change. Loss of multi-year sea ice and the occurrence of a \r seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean by the middle of this century will result \r in substantial range contraction, if not the disappearance of several \r Arctic fish, crab, bird and marine mammal species, including possible \r extinction of seals and polar bears in certain regions (high confidence). \r In the Arctic, permafrost thaw and snowfall decrease lead to profound \r hydrological changes, an overall greening of the tundra and regional \r browning of tundra and boreal forests (high confidence). {CCP6.1; \r Table CCP6.1; Table CCP6.2; CCP6.2.1; CCP6.2.2; Table CCP6.5}"


id: 8db4d71f2e260a94beecc5de14a592f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22119
content:
"Timing, direction and scale of polar climate change impacts \r differ sub-regionally and will require adaptation strategies that \r are flexible, equitable, inclusive and integrated across sectors \r and governance arrangements to effectively reduce risks (high \r confidence). Governance around climate change planning, preparation \r and response has been limited in scope, and has often not considered \r interacting effects of climate change with other risks (high confidence). \r Reactive management strategies will not succeed in reducing risks \r in polar regions given the rapid change and increasing potential for \r extreme events (high confidence). Greater inclusivity of stakeholders \r and communities, along with using diverse sources of information, \r including Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, can benefit \r robust planning and decision making, and uptake of adaptations (high \r confidence). Effectiveness in preparing for and adapting to climate \r [...]"


id: 2994b7e38e9690076e1b24267d448463
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4542
content:
"[...] risks can benefit from improved climate, weather and ice forecasting \r services, tools for integrating climate change data and different \r types of knowledge into management processes and enhanced polar \r search, rescue and emergency response capabilities (high confidence). \r {CCP6.2.3.1; CCP6.3; Table CCP6.6; CCP6.4; Box CCP6.2; Box CCP6.3; \r Figure CCP6.8}"


id: fa69aede5d3392ed4d915f07ba9bc16f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41425
content:
"This Cross Chapter Paper (CCP) assesses the impacts, risks and \r adaptation implications resulting from the physical and chemical \r changes in the polar regions that were detailed in the Intergovernmental \r Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WGI) contribution \r to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6) (IPCC, 2021). Several key \r WGI AR6 findings have important implications for natural and human \r systems in polar regions. Warming and wetting have persisted as key \r climatic impact drivers in polar regions (very high confidence) and \r will very likely2\r  continue to 2100 (Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021; Gulev \r et al., 2021) with cascading climate effects regarding heatwaves, fire, \r weather, floods and heavy precipitation, river runoff, snowfall, glaciers \r and ice sheets (IS), permafrost, lake, river and sea ice, relative sea level \r and coastal flooding and erosion (Gutierrez et al., 2021; Ranasinghe \r et al., 2021) (Table CCP6.1). They represent major climate hazards in all \r [...]"


id: 49472638714e717e09371586390850eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10109
content:
"[...] key risks for polar regions (Table CCP6.5). Key points of departure for \r this CCP also include IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC, 2014) \r and the Polar Regions chapter in the Special Report on the Ocean and \r Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) (Meredith et  al., 2019). \r SROCC assessed physical, biological and social systems concerning the \r Arctic and Antarctic Oceans and cryosphere, and how they are affected \r by current and future climate change. This CCP assesses the rapidly \r increasing evidence that has been published since AR5 and SROCC, and \r advances previous IPCC assessments. First, results from the Coupled \r Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) are an important advance \r since SROCC, which improve the certainty and resolution of projections \r of the main climate impact drivers and the risks they have for polar \r systems (Fox-Kemper et  al., 2021; Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). Second, "


id: 686bdc05eadde5ca21827dbf5f38ca48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15637
content:
"Mustonen, 2021). Phytoplankton communities harbour increasing \r numbers of taxa, including harmful species (Lovejoy et  al., 2017) \r and the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, which meanwhile forms \r regular blooms in the Barents Sea (Neukermans et  al., 2018; Silkin \r et al., 2020). Northward shifts of pelagic, benthic and demersal species \r and subsequent changes in Arctic community composition have been \r observed in the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas (Grebmeier et al., \r 2018; Mueter et al., 2020), as have higher numbers of economically \r important boreal species such as haddock and Pacific and Atlantic \r cod (CCP6.2.3). Cold-adapted Arctic fish species such as polar cod \r (Boreogadus saida) are expected to decline further and lose spawning \r habitats at GWL >1.5degC, mainly due to a lack of phenotypic plasticity, \r as well as increasing interspecific competition with and predation \r from invading boreal species (Dahlke et al., 2018; Marsh and Mueter, \r [...]"


id: 18fbe2393c3371320ba72ce0b6bbc21e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1612
content:
"[...] 2020). Numerous mammals and sea birds respond to changes in \r the distribution of their preferred habitats and prey by shifting their \r range, altering the timing or pathways for migration or switching \r prey (very high confidence) (Hamilton et al., 2017; Loseto et al., 2018; \r Meredith et al., 2019). Ice-breeding seals (e.g., harp seals - Pagophilus \r groenlandicus) often have little scope to shift distribution, leading to \r increases in strandings and pup mortality in years with little ice cover \r (medium confidence) (Table  CCP6.2) (Boveng et  al., 2020). Recent \r studies confirm that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are negatively \r affected by changing ice and snow conditions with decreases in \r denning, foraging, reproduction, genetic diversity and survival rates \r (very high confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Boonstra et al., 2020; Johnson \r and Derocher, 2020; Maduna et al., 2021)."


id: c195a87a47d79eb71b93b3d5dbeaa259
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31361
content:
"followed by gradual shifts to a more diverse typical shelf community, \r driven by increasing pelagic primary production upon ice-shelf collapse \r and strengthening of the pelagic-benthic coupling (high confidence) \r (Brasier et al., 2021; Gutt et al., 2021). Range changes of Antarctic birds \r and marine mammals have been observed, which vary among sub\u0002regions and are mostly attributable to changes in sea ice extent and \r food availability (high confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Gutt et al., 2018; \r Convey and Peck, 2019; Bestley et al., 2020). With projected sea ice \r retreat and associated change in prey distribution (Henley et al., 2020), \r foraging areas of sub-Antarctic sea birds and marine mammals will \r shift southwards, leading to elevated pressure on populations due to \r higher foraging costs during the breeding season (medium confidence) \r (Ropert-Coudert et al., 2018; Bestley et al., 2020; Hindell et al., 2020; \r [...]"


id: 836453ce52626dee63feccb89806ee80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20249
content:
"[...] Huckstadt et al., 2020; Wege et al., 2021). These changes are particularly \r impacting emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) (Table  CCP6.2), \r with the projected population declining close to extinction by 2100 \r under Business-As-Usual climate scenarios (medium confidence) \r (Jenouvrier et al., 2020; Trathan et al., 2020; Jenouvrier et al., 2021), \r whereas population decline is halted by 2060 under the 1.5degC climate \r scenario (low confidence) (Jenouvrier et al., 2020)."


id: b838ad490e420ec0c792b4c557777e5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29625
content:
"In the central Arctic Ocean, primary productivity remains low (medium \r confidence), mostly due to persisting nutrient and light limitations \r (Randelhoff and Guthrie, 2016; Ardyna and Arrigo, 2020). In inflowing \r (Barents and Chukchi Sea) and interior shelf regions (Laptev, Kara, \r and Siberian Sea), changes in sea ice extent, thickness and seasonal \r timing have altered light and mixing regimes, causing increasing \r overall productivity in open-water and under-ice habitats, and in leads \r (high confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Ardyna and Arrigo, 2020; Lannuzel \r et  al., 2020). Productivity changes are associated with the earlier\u0002onset phytoplankton spring blooms and the increasing occurrence \r of autumn blooms, particularly at lower latitudes of the Arctic (high \r confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Tedesco et al., 2019; Ardyna et al., 2020). \r Ice algal communities are expected to change in productivity and \r species composition in response to the transition from a predominantly \r [...]"


id: 5d060207421cb40784b1fd93ca12f1b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] multi-year to a seasonal sea ice pack (high confidence) (Meredith \r et al., 2019; Tedesco et al., 2019; Lannuzel et al., 2020). Thinner sea ice \r increases the likelihood of surface flooding, resulting in the occurrence \r of snow-infiltration algal communities, which have been described \r in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean (Fernandez-Mendez et  al., \r 2018) and observed by Indigenous Peoples off northern Greenland \r (Box  CCP6.2). The observed transition from marine-terminating to \r land-terminating glaciers has a negative impact on coastal ecosystems "


id: 4f04a4fbb1dd0cf6b1dac8ff0e01c77a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"In the Southern Ocean, southward range shifts are expected to result \r from increased warming coupled with the narrow thermal tolerance of \r cold-adapted Antarctic species (Convey and Peck, 2019; Morley et al., \r 2019; Gutt et al., 2021). Such shifts have so far only been detected \r for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), with a poleward contraction of \r the highest densities of krill in the Atlantic sector (medium confidence) \r (Table CCP6.2); (Atkinson et al., 2019). Ocean warming is expected to \r put pressure on Antarctic phytoplankton (Pinkerton et al., 2021) and \r fish species unable to move further south in shelf areas, including \r waters off sub-Antarctic islands (low confidence) (Table  CCP6.2) \r (Caccavo et al., 2021). Off the Antarctic Peninsula and sub-Antarctic \r islands, invasive benthic invertebrates and macroalgae have already \r been detected (medium confidence) (Fraser et al., 2018; Avila et al., \r [...]"


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"[...] 2020; Brasier et al., 2021), and projected changes will further favour \r the spread of invasive species (Fraser et al., 2020; Macaya et al., 2020). \r On a local to regional scale, the benthic recolonisation of the newly \r exposed seabed after the disintegration of ice shelves shows typical \r succession patterns, with mass occurrences of few pioneer species "


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"in Greenland (medium confidence) (Meire et al., 2017; Hopwood et al., \r 2018) and Svalbard (Halbach et al., 2019), as land-terminating glacial \r meltwater input increases stratification, which hinders vertical mixing \r and lowers local productivity, whereas marine-terminating glaciers \r can trigger upwelling, which supplies nutrients and enables higher \r productivity in the summer (Hopwood et al., 2020). Macroalgae and \r seagrass are generally expanding in the Arctic (medium confidence), \r though there are negative trends in some regions, partly due to \r increased runoff and turbidity from melting glaciers (Hopwood et al., \r 2020; Krause-Jensen et al., 2020). In the future Arctic Ocean, higher \r light availability in response to further sea ice decline and reduced \r deep mixing is projected to generally increase primary productivity \r (medium confidence), leading to an increase in phytoplankton biomass \r from 2000 to 2100 by ~20% for SSP1-2.6 and ~30-40% for SSP5-\r [...]"


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"[...] 8.5 (Chapter 3) (Kwiatkowski et  al., 2020). However, productivity \r may increase less than predicted and eventually even decrease once \r nutrient limitation outweighs the benefits of higher light availability \r (low confidence) (Randelhoff et al., 2020; Seifert et al., 2020)."


id: 96855eda6c50fbc7b8590a21bc6cd86d
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"saturation (Ding et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2020). Key species of diatom \r and picoeukaryote phytoplankton species yet appear relatively resilient \r to decreasing pH levels over a range of temperature and light conditions \r (medium confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Thoisen et al., 2015; Wolf et al., \r 2018; White et al., 2020). In contrast, there is evidence for species- and \r stage-specific sensitivities of zooplankton, pteropods and fishes (high \r confidence) (Table  CCP6.2) (Bailey et  al., 2016; Dahlke et  al., 2018; \r Thor et al., 2018). Warming, rising river-sediment discharge and coastal \r erosion in Arctic shelf regions are expected to increase the input of \r labile, often permafrost-derived organic carbon, the remineralisation \r of which further increases acidification rates (medium confidence) \r (Semiletov et al., 2016; AMAP, 2018b; Broder et al., 2018). Interactions \r with other physical changes, such as warming or freshening, are \r [...]"


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"[...] expected to aggravate the impacts of ocean acidification (Chapter 3) \r (Falkenberg et al., 2018)."


id: 2fec76789b35b52145a495a620373dd1
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"In the Southern Ocean, calcifying organisms are also most vulnerable \r to ocean acidification (high confidence) (Table CCP6.2), as evidenced \r by rates of calcification declining by 3.9% between 1998 and 2014 \r (Freeman and Lovenduski, 2015). Calcifying species with low\u0002magnesium calcite or mechanisms to protect their skeletons are less \r vulnerable to the corrosive effects of acidification than those using \r aragonite or high-magnesium calcite (high confidence) (Figuerola et al., \r 2021). In diatom-dominated communities, silicification diminishes \r with reduced pH levels, albeit with rates differing among taxa (low \r confidence) (Petrou et  al., 2019). Species-specific responses exist \r regarding growth and primary production, which are further strongly \r modulated by iron and light availability (high confidence) (Hoppe et al., \r 2013; Trimborn et al., 2013; Hoppe et al., 2015; Henley et al., 2020; \r Seifert et al., 2020). A meta-analysis yielded different CO2 thresholds for \r [...]"


id: f5323aa76dc760e558a62319868be461
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"[...] Antarctic organismal groups; for example, negative impacts emerged \r at >1000 matm CO2 in phytoplankton and at >1500 matm CO2 in \r invertebrates, whereas bacterial abundance was positively affected by \r ocean acidification (Hancock et al., 2020). Species sensitivity can also \r differ strongly between life-cycle stages (Chapter 3.3.2). For instance, \r eggs and embryos of Antarctic krill are negatively impacted at >1250 \r matm CO2 whereas adults can thrive even at 1000-2000 uatm CO2 over \r one year (Kawaguchi et al., 2013; Ericson et al., 2018)."


id: aff68fb960c38dd3fb30282a8f318473
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"Despite large-scale environmental changes in the Southern Ocean, \r such as the deepening of the summer mixed layer (medium confidence) \r (Panassa et  al., 2018; Sallee et  al., 2021), and the expected impacts \r via altered nutrient entrainment, light availability and grazer encounter \r rates (Chapter 3) (Behrenfeld and Boss, 2014; Llort et  al., 2019), \r assessments indicated no consistent changes in primary production \r at the circumpolar scale, as sectors and regions show different \r trends (medium confidence). Although a global assessment found no \r overall changes in circumpolar primary production from 1998 to 2015 \r (Table  CCP6.2) (Gregg and Rousseaux, 2019), another study showed \r an overall increase in phytoplankton biomass in the mixed layer over \r the period 1997-2019 (Pinkerton et al., 2021). Primary productivity has \r increased in the Pacific sector and decreased in the Atlantic sector and \r the Ross Sea (low confidence) (Kahru et al., 2017; Henley et al., 2020; \r [...]"


id: e391d2841b855474813f2f221af42d7b
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"[...] Pinkerton et al., 2021). Higher productivity has also been observed in \r regions where rapid environmental changes occurred, such as in the \r vicinity of retreating IS and declining sea ice cover off the Antarctic \r Peninsula (medium confidence) (Henley et  al., 2020; Rogers et  al., \r 2020), although diversity of phytoplankton may decrease with warming \r temperatures and less sea ice (limited evidence) (Lin et al., 2021). In the \r future Southern Ocean, stronger upwelling due to strengthened westerly \r winds is projected to increase primary productivity at the circumpolar \r scale in the Antarctic Zone and to the north of the sub-Antarctic Front, \r but not in the sub-Antarctic Zone (low to medium confidence) (Chapter \r 3) (Henley et al., 2020; Kwiatkowski et al., 2020; Pinkerton et al., 2021). \r The largest changes are projected to occur after 2100 at 2-6degC warming \r of the surface ocean (Moore et al., 2018). Such an increase in Southern \r [...]"


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"[...] Ocean productivity will lead to a decline in global ocean productivity \r (medium confidence), due to nutrient trapping (Moore et  al., 2018) \r and altered ocean carbon uptake through ecosystem feedbacks (Hauck \r et al., 2018)."


id: e185be1a908d076b422dd395eec73465
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"Climate change has transformed Arctic marine ecosystems from sea ice\u0002associated to open-water production regimes, with profound impacts \r on trophic energy transfer efficiencies and pathways (high confidence) \r (Behrenfeld et al., 2017; Meredith et al., 2019; Huntington et al., 2020) \r as well as benthic-pelagic coupling (medium confidence) (Birchenough \r et  al., 2015; Degen et  al., 2016; Solan et  al., 2020). Shifts in bloom \r phenology favour small phytoplankton and smaller zooplankton over \r large lipid-rich macro-zooplankton, leading to longer, less efficient food \r chains (medium confidence) (Aarflot et  al., 2018; Feng et  al., 2018; \r Kimmel et al., 2018; Weydmann et al., 2018; Moller and Nielsen, 2020). \r In the Beaufort Sea and Svalbard waters, earlier spring phytoplankton \r blooms have resulted in a mismatch in dynamics between microalgae and \r herbivorous copepods (Renaud et al., 2018; Dezutter et al., 2019). In the \r [...]"


id: e40b6646758f60843421a34f0518fe56
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"[...] Bering Sea, zooplankton declines following the particularly pronounced \r sea ice retreats in 2017 and 2018 were associated with reduced forage \r fish production (Duffy-Anderson et  al., 2019) as well as multi-trophic "


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"of higher trophic species, but changes in the structure and function of \r food webs will vary (McCormack et al., 2021; McCormack, accepted) \r depending on regional differences in changing drivers (Morley et al., \r 2020; Cavanagh et al., 2021; Grant et al., 2021). Primary production \r in open water habitats is expected to be supported by smaller \r phytoplankton species in the future (Henley et al., 2020), which could \r increase the relative importance of the copepod-mesopelagic fish \r pathway (McCormack, accepted), because krill prefer larger diatoms as \r food (Siegel, 2016). The optimum habitat for Antarctic krill is expected \r to decline with a shortening of suitable season for krill growth and \r reproduction, particularly in the northern Scotia and Bellingshausen \r Seas (medium confidence) (Veytia et  al., 2020), although changes \r may be difficult to distinguish from natural variability until later in the \r century (Sylvester et al., 2021). More subtle and unpredictable changes \r [...]"


id: 1202aaacbae3b81ca07f5a9c2555fd59
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"[...] may occur in the structure and relative importance of energy pathways \r in the food webs (Trebilco et  al., 2020). Small mesopelagic fish are \r increasingly recognised for their importance as mid-trophic level species \r in the Southern Ocean, particularly in the sub-Antarctic zone (Caccavo \r et  al., 2021) and Central Indian Sector (Subramaniam et  al., 2020; \r McCormack et al., 2021). Although salps have long been considered \r to be competitors of Antarctic krill (Suprenand and Ainsworth, 2017; \r Rogers et al., 2020), they provide a third energy pathway in pelagic food \r webs and, given the changing ocean conditions and their preference \r for smaller phytoplankton, may increase in importance for copepods \r (low confidence) (Plum et al., 2020; Trebilco et al., 2020; McCormack \r et  al., 2021; Pauli et  al., 2021; McCormack, accepted). Declining ice \r shelves, such as those off the Antarctic Peninsula, will open up new \r [...]"


id: 1a5110e6994fc8c324d31823c7ff6dbb
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"[...] pelagic and benthic habitats (CCP6.2.1.1) with expected increases in \r productivity of benthic assemblages in the new areas (Barnes, 2017; \r Morley et al., 2020; Brasier et al., 2021; Gutt et al., 2021)."


id: f6f32fc70412d217f566f05ffe48ea29
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"mortality of ctenophore, fish, bird and mammal species, coupled with \r severe emaciation, reproductive failure, disease and high mortality rates \r of sea bird predators (Section 14.4.4.2) (Jones et al., 2019; Maekakuchi \r et  al., 2020; Piatt et  al., 2020; Romano et  al., 2020). Species range \r shifts have restructured higher trophic levels in Arctic food webs (high \r confidence) (Table  CCP6.2; CCP6.2.3.3 Chapter 3) (Huntington et  al., \r 2020). In the northern Barents Sea, increased predation mortality for \r key species and incursions of boreal fish have induced entire ecosystem \r reorganisation (Degen et al., 2016; Pecuchet et al., 2020a; Pecuchet et al., \r 2020b). Regional taxonomic and functional diversity increased with \r immigration of boreal species, although the ongoing decline in Arctic \r species suggests high species turnover (Table  CCP6.2) (Frainer et  al., \r 2017). Recent marine heatwaves induced rapid and profound food web \r [...]"


id: 8382e685e9afd24ba6bfd6a10faf5661
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"Climate impacts on Arctic marine food webs will be profound and \r intensify with GWL (high confidence), regardless of mitigation \r scenarios due to multi-decadal lags in sea ice extent and atmospheric \r carbon (WGI) (Jones et al., 2020). However, the exact nature of these \r impacts remains unclear due to attenuating and amplifying dynamics \r of both top-down and bottom-up processes in polar food webs and \r the management of fisheries (high confidence) (Chapter 3) (Cavicchioli \r et al., 2019; Meredith et al., 2019). Projected sea ice loss is associated \r with a >50% decline in the density of large zooplankton species by \r 2100 (relative to early 21st century levels) in the southern Bering Sea \r and a net increase in large zooplankton in the Northern Bering Sea \r in scenarios without carbon mitigation (Representative Concentration \r Pathway (RCP) 8.5), whereas these declines are roughly half the \r magnitude under moderate mitigation scenarios (RCP4.5) (Hermann \r [...]"


id: 8e05b153d6061cab5818f4b7696722f5
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"[...] et al., 2019; Kearney et al., 2020). Warming is expected to reduce the \r quantity and quality of lipid-rich copepod prey (high confidence) (Aarflot \r et al., 2018; Kimmel et al., 2018; Bouchard and Fortier, 2020; Moller \r and Nielsen, 2020; Mueter et al., 2020), leading to declines in survival \r and growth of multiple upper-trophic level fish species; these impacts \r are amplified over time under low mitigation scenarios (RCP8.5) (high \r confidence) (CCP6.2.1.1) (Dahlke et  al., 2018; Holsman et  al., 2020; \r Mueter et al., 2020; Oke et al., 2020; Reum et al., 2020; Thorson et al., \r 2020; Whitehouse et al., 2021). Marine mammals and sea birds will \r continue to attenuate climate change impacts by shifting their diets \r and behaviour (medium confidence) (Table CCP6.2) (Hamilton et al., \r 2017; Lowther et  al., 2017; Lydersen et  al., 2017; Vihtakari et  al., \r 2018; Boveng et  al., 2020). However, sea birds generally have low \r [...]"


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"[...] temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing, making them \r vulnerable to mismatches with their prey and limiting long-term \r adaptation (medium confidence) (Keogan et al., 2018; Kharouba and \r Wolkovich, 2020; Piatt et al., 2020; Samplonius et al., 2021)."


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"Since the publication of AR5 (IPCC, 2014) and SROCC (IPCC, 2019) and \r their findings (Table CCP6.2), more studies confirm rapid changes in \r Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems including increased permafrost \r thaw, changes to tundra hydrology and vegetation (overall greening of \r the tundra, regional browning of tundra and boreal forests), coastal and \r riverbank erosion (high confidence) (Canadell et al., 2021; Mustonen \r and Shadrin, 2021), reduced duration of snow cover and river and lake \r ice, increased rain-on-snow events, and reduced land-ice extent and \r thickness (Bieniek et  al., 2018; Brown et  al., 2018). Climate change \r continues to alter vegetation and attendant biodiversity, with divergent \r regional trends across the Arctic due to disparities in local conditions \r and changes in growing seasons (Zhu et al., 2016; Taylor et al., 2020). \r Warming facilitates woody vegetation growth in northeastern Siberia, \r [...]"


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"[...] western Alaska, and northern Quebec (Song et al., 2018; Garcia Criado \r et al., 2020), as well as a northward expansion of shrub vegetation and \r sub-Arctic and boreal species (Davidson et al., 2020)."


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"Vegetation responses to warming are contingent on water availability \r and local temperature (medium confidence) (Guglielmin et al., 2014; \r Royles and Griffiths, 2015; Amesbury et al., 2017; Cannone et al., 2017; \r Charman et  al., 2018; Robinson et  al., 2018; Stelling et  al., 2018), \r which vary greatly around Antarctica (Figure  CCP6.1) (Turner et  al., \r 2020a). Antarctic terrestrial ecosystem responses to changes in water \r availability are not homogeneous (Ball and Levy, 2015; Sadowsky \r et al., 2016; Fuentes-Lillo et al., 2017; Gooseff et al., 2017; Schroeter \r et al., 2017; Lee et al., 2018). West Antarctica is showing evidence of \r greening in the dominant cryptogrammic vegetation, with greater \r growth in mosses (high confidence) (Casanova-Katny et  al., 2016; \r Amesbury et al., 2017; Shortlidge et al., 2017; Charman et al., 2018; \r Prather et al., 2019). Peatland ecosystems may increase on the west \r Antarctic Peninsula with future warming (low confidence) (Yu et al., \r [...]"


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"[...] 2016; Loisel et  al., 2017). In contrast, some parts of East Antarctica \r and the subantarctic islands to the north have been experiencing a \r drying climate, with declining health of mosses and other vegetation \r (high confidence) (Bergstrom et al., 2015; Bramley-Alves et al., 2015; \r Robinson et al., 2018; Bergstrom et al., 2021)."


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"Subsistence harvest of fish, sea birds and marine mammals is the basis \r for economic, cultural and spiritual connections with Arctic marine \r systems (Box CCP6.2)(Fall et al., 2013; Haynie and Huntington, 2016; \r Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017; Slats et al., 2019), and nature-based \r livelihoods (e.g., caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) herding, \r fishing, hunting, trapping, small-scale forestry) are fundamental to \r Indigenous Peoples across the Arctic as they have been for millennia \r (Koivurova et  al., 2015; Betts, 2016; Gavin et  al., 2018; Raheem, \r 2018; Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). Climate change has impacted \r Indigenous subsistence resources across the Arctic (very high \r confidence) (SMCCP6.2), and future food systems and ecological \r connections are at risk from future climate change hazards interacting \r with non-climate pressures, some of which are mediated or amplified by \r novel conditions and opportunities in Arctic regions (high confidence) \r [...]"


id: e7b76de071ef715728160fd37e2d8441
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"[...] (Moerlein and Carothers, 2012; Fall et al., 2013; Raymond-Yakoubian \r et  al., 2017; Meredith et  al., 2019; Slats et  al., 2019; Huntington \r et al., 2020; Huntington et al., 2021). Increasing heatwaves, wildfires, \r extreme precipitation, permafrost loss and rapid seasonal snow and ice \r thaw events will further threaten terrestrial subsistence food resources \r across the Arctic (high confidence) (Table CCP6.3). Although climate \r impacts and non-climate factors systematically undermine access to \r and productivity of subsistence resources, resilience is inherently high \r for Indigenous Peoples, illustrating critical elements underpinning \r successful adaptation to climate change (Box  CCP6.2) (Huntington \r et al., 2021)."


id: 2f2c86c6813f3483b8e62963290fcf8e
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"Cascading and interacting effects of climate change impacts in polar \r regions (Table  CCP6.1) will reduce access to, and productivity of, \r future fisheries, and pose significant risks to regional and global food \r and nutritional security that increase with atmospheric carbon levels \r and declines in sea ice (high confidence) (Table CCP6.6). Although it \r is expected that fisheries will continue to contract poleward under \r future warming (Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5) \r (Table  CCP6.4) (Alabia et  al., 2018; Morley et  al., 2018; Stevenson \r and Lauth, 2019; Caccavo et al., 2021; Grant et al., 2021), global and \r regional models differ in their projections of fisheries catch potential \r for the polar regions under climate change. For example, some global\u0002scale models project increases in potential fishery yields in Arctic \r Canada (Cheung, 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Tai et al., 2019), whereas \r many observational studies and high-resolution regional projections \r [...]"


id: f82c2200a88ad7e51613fa5ebb06e472
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"[...] suggest overall declines in biomass, productivity and yield associated \r with warming and loss of sea ice in multiple regions such as the Bering \r Sea (medium confidence) (Free et  al., 2019; Hollowed et  al., 2020; \r Holsman et al., 2020; Mueter et al., 2020; Reum et al., 2020). Reduced \r production of macronutrients and protein by polar marine sources \r will disproportionately impact people already experiencing food and \r nutritional scarcity (Myers et al., 2017), marine-dependent communities \r within and beyond polar regions, and women and children who require \r higher quantities of macronutrients (high confidence)."


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"Fisheries play an increasingly important role in addressing global food \r and nutritional deficits (Section 3.6.3)(Bene et al., 2016; Ding et al., \r 2017; Hicks et al., 2019; Costello et  al., 2020), especially as climate \r change has already reduced global yields from key crops (Myers \r et al., 2017; Ray et al., 2019; Thiault et al., 2019). Antarctic and Arctic \r systems support some of the world's largest fisheries, including those \r for Antarctic krill and Arctic walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), \r which constitute a critical source of protein and macronutrients \r to a growing population of seafood consumers, as well as various \r aquaculture and livestock feeds (Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE \r in Chapter 5) (Table CCP6.4) (Huntington et al., 2013; Raheem, 2018; \r Hicks et al., 2019; Steiner et al., 2019; FAO, 2020; Cavanagh et al., 2021; \r Grant et al., 2021; Murphy et al., 2021). Marine sources of protein and \r [...]"


id: f136a8deb1a0b20379f2d2caf033f75c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39824
content:
"[...] nutrition are important in transformational future scenarios where \r dietary shifts and provisioning policies provide multiple co-benefits \r to equity, food security and carbon mitigation (Springmann et  al., \r 2016; Poore and Nemecek, 2018; Thiault et al., 2019; Kim et al., 2020). \r Shifting spatial distributions of fish stocks have led to transboundary \r management challenges in the Atlantic, Bering Sea and Arctic areas \r previously inaccessible due to sea ice (Table CCP6.6) (Gullestad et al., \r 2020)."


id: 4720a4a40aa0d38278a4dbb0e9e05a8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9717
content:
"Climate change has triggered rapid, unprecedented and cascading changes in polar regions that have profound \r implications for ecosystems and people globally. Although physically remote from the largest population centres, \r polar systems are inextricably linked to the rest of the world through interconnected ocean currents, atmospheric \r interactions and weather, ecological and social systems, commerce and trade. The nutrient-rich waters of the polar \r regions fuel some of the most productive marine ecosystems on earth, which in turn support fisheries for species \r packed with vital macronutrients that are essential for human health and well-being. The largest most sustainable \r fisheries in the world are located in polar waters, where a mix of ice, seasonal light and cold nutrient-rich waters \r fuel schools of millions of fish that swell and retract in numbers across the years, reflecting interlaced cycles of \r [...]"


id: 4e4feb26e462a5c90f8ec2732b554676
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11049
content:
"[...] icy cold waters, lipid-rich prey and abundant predators. Polar systems thus exist in a productive balance that has \r supported vibrant ecocultural connections between Indigenous Peoples and the Arctic for millennia and has \r supported global food production and trade for centuries. Climate change increasingly destabilises this balance \r with uncertain outcomes for Indigenous Peoples and local residents in the Arctic as well as for the rest of the \r world. Triggered by warming oceans and air temperatures, accelerated melting of sea ice, glaciers and IS in polar \r regions in turn impacts ocean salinity, sea levels and circulation throughout the global ocean. Warming waters \r have also pushed cold-adapted species poleward, eroded the cold barrier between boreal and Arctic species, and \r induced rapid reorganisation of polar ecosystems. Studies increasingly indicate that the complex web of physical \r [...]"


id: e0a1025e2e88bd97def98cb2c9e2c572
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36778
content:
"[...] and biological connections that have fuelled these productive regions will falter without the strong regulating \r influence of cryospheric change. At the same time, the global demand for food is increasing, particularly the \r demand for highly nutritious marine protein, placing increasing importance on stabilising polar ecological systems \r and minimising climate change impacts and risks."


id: 47eb4feacaa40882a1d3e040219e42d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9861
content:
"Climate change has increased risks to, and demand for, polar \r tourism experiences related to increased maritime accessibility (high \r confidence), lengthening of warm weather season lengths (very \r high confidence) and development of a 'last chance tourism market' \r (medium confidence). Reductions in sea ice extent have facilitated \r increased access for polar cruising (Dawson et al., 2018b; Stewart et al., \r 2020). Demand for Arctic cruises has increased by 20.5% over the past \r 5 years and resulted in 27.2 million passengers in 2018 (Shijin et al., \r 2020). In the Antarctic, tourist numbers increased by 27% from 1992 to \r 2018 and attracted 75,000 visitors in 2019-2020 (IAATO, 2020; Shijin \r et al., 2020), making it the largest economic sector in the entire region \r (Stewart et al., 2020). The recent increase in polar tourism is due in part \r to the development of a niche market called 'last chance tourism', which \r [...]"


id: f2eb1e1e881c3e9cc439aa3ade0e1a7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40129
content:
"[...] involves explicitly marketing vulnerable or vanishing destinations or \r features (i.e., glaciers, polar bears, landscapes) and encouraging tourists \r to see them 'before they are gone' (Dawson et al., 2018a; Groulx et al., \r 2019). However, tourism development opportunities will also contend \r with ongoing risks related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) \r pandemic, which halted tourism globally in 2020-2021 (Frame and \r Hemmings, 2020; Lorenzo et  al., 2020), as well as those related to \r increased climatic risks limiting participation and reducing safety and \r security. By 2100, under RCP8.5, snow cover season length suitable for \r winter recreational activities is projected to decrease by 21-49% in \r West Greenland (Schrot et al., 2019). Reduced sea ice and snow cover \r creates hazards for and could limit dog sledding, cross country skiing, \r snowmobiling and floe edge tours, with limited adaptation strategies \r [...]"


id: 7cc8178be05a2b1b34ab194050133e8e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19151
content:
"Climate change presents significant risks to economic activities in \r the polar regions (very high confidence) and simultaneously enables \r development possibilities for fisheries (CCP6.2.3.3), agriculture \r (CCP6.2.3.2), the sharing and subsistence economy (CCP6.2.3.1) \r (SMCCP6.2) (high confidence), maritime trade (Box CCP6.1), natural \r resource development (CCP6.2.4.1) (medium confidence), tourism \r (CCP6.2.4.2) and transportation (including shipping) (CCP6.2.4.3; FAQ \r CCP6.2). Hundreds of billions of dollars are expected to be invested \r in the polar regions in the next several decades (Lloyd's, 2012; \r Barnhart et al., 2016; Pendakur, 2017; Tsukerman et al., 2019), and, \r as this unfolds, there are opportunities to simultaneously implement \r adaptation strategies that support climate resilient development \r pathways in line with self-determination for Indigenous Peoples and \r local communities and locally derived visions of successful adaptation \r [...]"


id: dea57f69500fc5ee3dd8be6eca3c8cce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36432
content:
"[...] and development (CCP6.3.2, CCP6.4.3) (Jorgenson, 2007; Ritsema \r et al., 2015; Ready and Power, 2017; Larsen and Petrov, 2020)."


id: 604c07bae5b50b75a73d62a2abdd5a74
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14243
content:
"Climate change is improving access to natural resources in the Arctic \r with consequences for human safety (high confidence), economic \r development (very high confidence) and global mitigation efforts \r (medium confidence). Reductions in sea ice combined with improved \r extraction and transportation technologies have increased accessibility \r to natural resources across the Arctic (Eliasson et  al., 2017; Dawson \r et al., 2018b; Stephen, 2018), a situation that could support continued \r global dependence on relatively cheap and abundant fossil fuels \r resources and contribute to further warming. By 2040 (RCP4.5) it is \r expected that sea ice will have receded enough to make gas production \r technologically feasible in the European off-shore Arctic (Petrick et al., \r 2017). However, increased sea ice mobility, iceberg abundance, storm \r surge and surface wave action (Ng et al., 2018; Howell and Brady, 2019; \r Casas-Prat and Wang, 2020) will also increase risks to ships servicing \r [...]"


id: 9586fdd541ed0e16e67f737c3e0db626
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23509
content:
"[...] mines in a region that already exhibits disproportionately high accident \r rates (Council of Canadian Academies, 2016) (CCP6.3.1, Table CCP6.1). \r Season lengths for ship-based support to mines and extraction sites will \r increase with sea ice change, while access via ice roads will decrease \r with warming (Perrin et al., 2015; Council of Canadian Academies, 2016; \r Trofimenko et al., 2017; Southcott and Natcher, 2018). By 2050, climate \r change impacts to the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road servicing \r mines in the northeastern region of the Northwest Territories, Canada "


id: 8c28512f6ea198ea69268d438a6d1c87
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21832
content:
"Council of Canadian Academies, 2016; Gadeke et  al., 2021) in the \r northern Baltic (Finland) (Kiani et al., 2018), James Bay (Canada) (Hori \r et al., 2018a; Hori et al., 2018b) and Yakutia (Russia) (Mustonen and \r Shadrin, 2021). Dog sled travel in northwest Greenland has experienced \r shorter season lengths (Nuttall, 2020), Alaskan whale hunters have \r had difficulty finding suitable ice for safe harvest activities (Huntington \r et al., 2016; Nyland et al., 2017), and unpredictability in break-up and \r freeze-up of sea ice has compromised safe travel to and from culturally \r significant hunting and camping areas in Canada (Dawson et al., 2020; \r Simonee et al., 2021) and northeast Siberia (Ksenofontov et al., 2017; \r Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). Fog (low confidence) and an increase in \r precipitation falling as ice pellets or hail (high confidence) (Kochtubajda \r et al., 2017) is expected to continue to cause operational delays and \r [...]"


id: b62c2aba79add5fb6b945e3808432fd5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29274
content:
"There has been debate among shipping stakeholders, rightsholders and experts about the extent to which climate \r change and sea ice change is directly influencing increases in shipping activity in the polar regions relative to other \r social, technological, political and economic factors such as commodity prices, tourism demand, global economic \r trends, infrastructure support and service availability. Understanding the connection between climate change and \r polar shipping activity will allow for more reliable projections of possible future traffic trends and will aid in identify\u0002ing appropriate adaptation and infrastructure needs required to support future management of the industry. Recent \r studies have observed increasing statistical correlations between sea ice change and shipping trends in the polar \r regions, and many have concluded that although economic factors remain the main driver of shipping activities, \r [...]"


id: 261ebf7dd942daf93cc6d3ac736bc6e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3878
content:
"[...] followed by infrastructure availability, climate change does indeed play a varying but important role in influencing \r operator intentions. The 'opening of polar seaways' due to sea ice reduction is indeed 'enabling' opportunities for \r polar shipping among all types of vessels due to increasingly accessible areas that were previously covered by multi\u0002year ice, but the extent to which climate change will specifically 'drive' an increase in shipping demand remains \r highly dependent on the vessel type and the reasons for operation. There are certain vessel types, such as those sup\u0002porting international trade, mining operations or community re-supply, where analysis shows no correlation or weak \r correlations with sea ice change, suggesting that climate change is enabling these types of ships via increased open \r water areas and season lengths but that it is not necessarily driving demand. Conversely, there are certain vessel \r [...]"


id: d6754faabdefeac6b66276fb1303b793
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35036
content:
"[...] types, such as yachts and cruise ships, where correlations between sea ice change and traffic increases are stronger, \r and where there is evidence to suggest that these vessels are indeed driven to visit the polar regions because they \r perceive waterways as exotic and exciting due to being newly accessible or they want to have a Polar experience "


id: e8bff8b1209bb9a14d09b8625cc9606b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38295
content:
"Discovering a viable maritime trade route linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans through the Arctic has captured the collective global \r imagination for centuries (Bockstoce, 2018). Geographically shorter than southern trade routes via the Panama and Suez Canals, the Arctic \r presents the possibility for more economical and timely commercial trade, but has historically been limited by thick multi-year ice and other \r navigational challenges. Amplified warming in the Arctic has caused September sea ice extent to decline at a rate of -13% per decade \r (Serreze and Meier, 2019) and reduced sea ice thickness by 66% (2 m) between 1958-1976 and 2011-2018 (Kwok, 2018). Regardless of \r mitigation efforts, it is expected that before mid-century the Arctic will be seasonally ice free for the first time in 2,600,000 years (defined \r as <1,000,000 km2\r ) (Knies et al., 2014; SIMIP Community, 2020; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Lee et al., 2021) and will make Arctic maritime \r [...]"


id: fcaa104a0c0b22994b322c1131722dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41817
content:
"[...] trade a reality (Eguiluz et al., 2016; Melia et al., 2016; Pizzolato et al., 2016; Bennett et al., 2020; Wei et al., 2020)."


id: 6531c5c2ae157c40629d6c0659a3ab52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15072
content:
"There are three identified trade routes in the Arctic: Northern Sea Route (NSR), Northwest Passages (NWP) and the Transpolar Sea Route \r (TSR). Over the last decade, economic trends and reductions in sea ice have facilitated significant increases in ship traffic in the NSR \r (Aksenov et al., 2017; Li et al., 2020), including a 79% increase in total transit tonnage from 2010 to 2017 (Babin et al., 2020) related \r mostly to domestic resource development. Relative to an early 21st century baseline, it is expected that the NSR will become 18% more \r accessible by mid-century (Stephenson et al., 2013) and could be navigable even for non-ice strengthened vessels for 101-118 days \r annually by 2050 and 125-192 days by 2100 (Khon et al., 2017). The NWP has experienced a tripling of km travelled by ships since 1990, \r attributed mostly to resource extraction and increases in tourism opportunities (Johnston et al., 2017; Dawson et al., 2018a). The NWP \r [...]"


id: e72b3862dd5f5de8e4e643dfea58111c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37971
content:
"[...] could become 30% more accessible by 2050 compared with current conditions (Stephenson et al., 2013). Before 4degC global warming \r above pre-industrial, re-supply vessels (Polar Class 7) in the western NWP could gain an additional month of operating time, whereas \r the eastern NWP could gain just 2 weeks (Mudryk et al., 2021) due to the dynamic import of mobile and hazardous ice from the Arctic \r Ocean (Haas and Howell, 2015; Howell and Brady, 2019). Comparatively, the TSR has historically only been viable for nuclear icebreakers, \r submarines, and occasional military and scientific activity due to thick multi-year ice regimes (Bennett et al., 2020). However, this most \r sought-after route offers the greatest reduction in sailing times compared with southern routes (19-24 days) of all Arctic Sea routes and \r could be 56% more accessible by mid-century compared with current conditions (Stephenson et al., 2013; Melia et al., 2016)."


id: ae9ab16b66a23cf761c7faa94e746158
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27952
content:
"Growth in Arctic maritime trade will result in increased emission of black carbon (Stephenson et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019; Wang et al., \r 2021), increases in ship-source underwater noise impacts on marine mammals (Halliday et al., 2017), higher rates of accidents and \r incidents among vessels from increasing mobile sea ice and newly accessible ice-free waters that lack charting (Haas and Howell, 2015; \r Howell and Brady, 2019), impacts to cultural sustainability for Indigenous Peoples (Olsen et  al., 2019; Dawson et  al., 2020) (high \r confidence), the potential for the introduction and propagation of invasive species (Chan et al., 2019; Rosenhaim et al., 2019), and \r sovereignty tensions with implications for global geopolitics (Drewniak et al., 2018) (medium confidence). Globalisation and the almost \r universal adherence to economic growth models among nations will continue to fuel maritime trade (Box 14.5). As sea ice decreases \r [...]"


id: 828ffbdd97336e0051d01ab1485f962e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20097
content:
"[...] facilitates growth in Arctic maritime trade and transportation specifically, adaptation strategies designed to facilitate mitigation co\u0002benefits and that target the cascading implications and double exposure of climate change and Arctic shipping impacts will be essential \r in reducing risks (Ng et al., 2018; Pirotta et al., 2019; Bennett et al., 2020; Zeng et al., 2020). Electric and solar powered vessels, new \r engine and emission reduction technologies, investment in wind, water, ice and climate forecasting technologies and services (Haavisto \r et al., 2020; Stewart et al., 2020; Simonee et al., 2021), and efforts by the International Maritime Organization to reduce sulphur and the \r use of heavy fuel oils (PAME, 2020; van Luijk et al., 2020) could play a key role in limiting emissions and reducing risks related to the \r environmental and cultural impacts of fuel spills in ice-infested Arctic waters. The development of low-impact shipping corridors (Chenier \r [...]"


id: a70c4e55c82b766edb2d79c5ac085f0a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26600
content:
"[...] et al., 2017; Dawson et al., 2020) and multi-lateral agreements such as those implemented by the Arctic Council and Indigenous Peoples' \r organisations on joint search and rescue (Arctic Council, 2011) and shared spill responsibilities (Arctic Council, 2013) represent important \r co-governance efforts that will be increasingly important in the future owing to projected climate-related risks."


id: fa5f6ee6e8dd1bffac9743c65bbbf6f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41416
content:
"permafrost thaw could increase the cost of infrastructure lifecycle \r replacement by 27% by mid-century under RCP8.5 (Suter et al., 2019). \r Northern Canada and Western Siberia are at particularly high risk, \r which are projected to cost additional annual spending of over 1% \r of annual gross regional product to maintain existing infrastructure \r (Suter et  al., 2019). For instance, under an RCP8.5 scenario, climate \r change could affect over 19% of structures and infrastructure assets in \r Russia, which would cost an estimated $84.4 billion USD to mitigate \r damages (Streletskiy et  al., 2019). Fifty-four percent of residential \r buildings are projected to be affected by significant permafrost \r degradation by the mid-century, costing an additional estimated \r $52.6  billion USD (Streletskiy et  al., 2019). Sea level rise (SLR) and \r reduced sea ice protection is projected to compound permafrost thaw \r damages, including low lying coasts (e.g., along southern Beaufort \r [...]"


id: 1591f1668566cb929080b9c9133ae8d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1008
content:
"[...] Sea), low-lying barrier islands (e.g., along Chukchi Sea), and deltas \r (e.g., Mackenzie, Lena) (Fritz et al., 2017; Lantz et al., 2020). In Alaska, "


id: 4db4e1e47068436597d98ce08b748967
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10946
content:
"Climate change continues to have wide-ranging physical human health \r risks in the Arctic, particularly for Indigenous Peoples (high confidence); \r however, future projections of physical risks are nascent. Climate \r change has already challenged food and nutritional security (CCP6.2.5). \r Climate change also creates safety concerns for those who access the \r land, ice and water for food, cultural and recreational purposes, with \r changing environmental conditions linked to injury and death (Durkalec \r et al., 2014; Clark et al., 2016a; Clark et al., 2016b; Driscoll et al., 2016; \r Brattland and Mustonen, 2018). Foodborne disease risks are expected \r to increase in the Arctic, with warming temperatures linked to increased \r risk of microbial contamination of locally harvested foods (Grjibovski \r et  al., 2013; Harper et  al., 2015), chemical contamination of locally \r harvest foods (Hansen et al., 2015; Long et al., 2015; Alava et al., 2017), \r [...]"


id: e71d35bffbed2fc51e1192cfaf630304
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37958
content:
"[...] compromised structural integrity and utility of ice cellars used to store \r locally harvested meat (Nyland et al., 2017; Markon et al., 2018), and \r new challenges to traditional food preparation techniques (Shadrin, \r 2021). Waterborne disease risks have increased, with decreased \r drinking water quality and quantity, water treatment infrastructure \r failures and new waterborne pathogens emerging in the Arctic (Berner \r et al., 2016; Thivierge et al., 2016; Markon et al., 2018; Yoder, 2018; \r Masina et al., 2019; Sachal et al., 2019; Harper et al., 2020; Mustonen \r and Shadrin, 2021). Emerging environmental exposures to pathogens \r is also a concern. In 2016, a Nenets boy and over 200,000 reindeer died \r from anthrax linked to warming environments (Ezhova et al., 2021)--a \r risk which is projected to increase with climate change (Liskova et al., \r 2021). Thawing permafrost increases smallpox risk in former nomadic \r [...]"


id: d89c945981df4fd34fe40dd7b8fd5f28
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35400
content:
"[...] campsites and graveyards (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021; Shadrin, \r 2021). Arctic health systems--which are often already stressed--will \r be further challenged by climate change (Harper et  al., 2015; Clark \r and Ford, 2017), especially in conjunction with other system shocks \r (e.g., COVID-19) (Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7) (Zavaleta\u0002Cortijo et al., 2020). While physical health impacts have been observed, \r research examining future health projections or evaluating the efficacy \r of health adaptations is rare (Dobson et al., 2015; Harper et al., 2020; \r Harper et al., 2021).\r Climate change has negative, widespread and cumulative impacts \r on mental health in the Arctic, particularly for Indigenous Peoples \r (very high confidence) (Figure  CCP6.3). Climate-sensitive mental \r health outcomes are complex, overlapping and interrelated, and have "


id: 24d856ab1af45388937f5817e50a43dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3677
content:
"Due to the steady changes in precipitation in recent years, a deeper than usual snow cover has formed in Northeast Siberia (Mustonen \r and Shadrin, 2021). This alters the capacity of reindeer to access lichen, their primary food source. Late onset of cold weather has led to \r difficulties in the herds moving to their winter pastures. In the summer, increased rainfall has led to waterlogging of low-lying pastures. \r The most important challenge is the instability of the weather (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021). This includes frequent, never-before-seen \r warming, combined with rains in the late winter and early spring. Sharp temperature drops of over 30degC occurring within a few hours \r lead to formation of an ice crust on the ground which becomes a challenge for reindeer, especially in autumn, and are becoming more \r frequent. Furthermore, the number of summer storms and rapid cooling accompanied with snowfall during July has increased. Using IK \r [...]"


id: b4bd7ed2d1f695fb05ff91e899996507
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29052
content:
"[...] to predict weather is the basis of effective survival. It has become extremely difficult due to the unprecedented fast changing conditions \r (Mustonen and Shadrin, 2021) (Shadrin, 2021). All of these events lead to increased risks in the lives of Indigenous Peoples (Mustonen \r and Shadrin, 2021)."


id: bd2a183afe7680c3e64a3e7d58c62336
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30534
content:
"Feodoroff (2021) stresses that many Sami women are central to Indigenous-led adaptation. Indigenous women use their bodies as \r gauges of change. For example, the restoration work in Naatamojoki River in Finland (Ogar et al., 2020; Feodoroff, 2021) is based on the \r knowledge of traditional fishers and reindeer herders. IK and Western science offer possibilities to reflect on changes that the waters \r in Indigenous bodies have known of events of the past (Feodoroff, 2021). Changes in temperature, pain and the gradual passing of \r pain, waves and intrusions within Indigenous bodies are knowledges that are difficult to communicate according to Feodoroff (2021). \r Women are sensitive to receiving messages from their home environments. Feodoroff (2021) stresses that Indigenous conservation work \r is a bodily commitment. This realisation is linked with difficult questions of what or who controls Indigenous bodies. Feodoroff (2021) \r [...]"


id: 980116572544dcc4c4e32fb1a333c6ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23956
content:
"[...] links present change with lingering impacts of global environmental damage that has not been dealt with or addressed. It may lead \r to real pain in Indigenous bodies and minds, causing feelings of being nauseated and ultimately causing fade-out, wilt, withering and \r extinguishment of Indigenous Peoples."


id: 5d258c331e94408f680986823dfdf0ec
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"The extraordinary developments in the field of IK have crystallised the main tenant of interaction with the natural world that is 'integral \r to a cultural complex that also encompasses language, systems of classification, resource use practices, social interactions, ritual and \r spirituality' (UNESCO, 2017). Inuit have used their knowledge of the land and coastal seas to design technology, monitoring systems \r (Atlas of Community-Based Monitoring in a Changing Arctic, 2021) and new hunting routes that respond to the changes they face (Inuit \r Circumpolar Council, 2017; Nunavut Climate Change Center, 2018; SIKU, 2020). Such examples of 'adaptation success' across Inuit \r Nunaat have been showcased and celebrated nationally and internationally (Youth Climate Report, 2019), and all are underpinned by \r Inuit knowledge and pivot on their right to self-determination. This is also embodied, for example, in Canada; the National Inuit Climate \r [...]"


id: c4baa26ef110e5a3ad3781df11065432
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] Change Strategy outlines the collective Canadian Inuit plan for climate action, centring on Inuit-determined priorities to protect their \r culture, language and way of life, and guiding partners in how to work with Inuit on implementing this strategy (ITK, 2019). Their action \r on adaptation also spans scales from local to international. As far back as 1977, Inuit have been organised and involved at the international \r level. Inuit were present at the Rio Earth Summit and have participated in diverse but interrelated United Nations conventions to protect \r their homelands (e.g., UNFCCC, CBD, Stockholm Convention). This history gives us unique insight and positions us as both leaders and \r partners with the ability to engage directly with governments, business and others."


id: eb34d9542d551fb1dd724305154b9250
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"(Figure  CCP6.6). Some adaptation measures and opportunities \r induce novel risks to other sectors or systems resulting in cascading \r and compounding consequences that are sometimes hard to predict \r or prepare for (Huntington et  al., 2015) (Table  CCP6.6). Adaptation \r planning and implementation is greater in the Arctic than Antarctic \r regions, in part due to disparate magnitudes of realised climate impacts \r and change between regions (Figure CCP6.2; Table CCP6.1) but also \r because of the differing governance systems in place (Meredith et al., \r 2019). In the Antarctic region, a climate action plan has been developed \r for terrestrial systems but not for the Southern Ocean (Meredith et al., \r 2019), although strategies for adapting to climate change have been \r proposed, including incorporation of precaution in decision making \r (Constable et al., 2017). In the Arctic, climate change information is \r increasingly integrated into research, policy and decision making \r [...]"


id: 5ef871c24f145be1abfe101619b8fc63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] including incorporation of climate change projections, forecasts and \r early warnings (AMAP, 2017; AMAP, 2018a; Marshall et al., 2019; Dorn \r and Zador, 2020; Hollowed et al., 2020; Stram et al., 2021)."


id: d429dbadc83641c21e289cf97b4ca1c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"Key risks arising from changing climate hazards are presented in \r Table CCP6.6 (details in SMCCP6.4). Changing levels and magnitude of \r climate hazards translate into different levels of risks for ecosystems, \r industry, society and infrastructure (Figure CCP6.4) (see Meredith et al., \r 2019 Figures  3.5, 3.10 (Arctic), Figure  3.6 (Antarctic). In the Arctic, \r these risks are often also shaped by non-climatic factors (Huntington \r et al., 2019; Ford et al., 2021), including ongoing colonial legacies, land \r dispossession, landscape fragmentation and resulting challenges in \r the valuing and meaningful use of IK and LK (Box CCP6.2) (Huntington \r et  al., 2019; Kelman and Naess, 2019; Ford et  al., 2020). Available \r literature enabled assessment of particular polar assets based on \r projected future risk and including consideration of non-climatic \r compounding factors under 1degC, 2degC, 3degC and 4degC global warming \r [...]"


id: 4a918c0e2a711439beb03bb8a7514046
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"[...] above pre-industrial level, including sea ice ecosystems, marine \r mammals, sea birds, fisheries, infrastructure (Arctic only), local mobility \r (Arctic only) and coastal erosion (Arctic only) (Figure CCP6.5) (details \r in SMCCP6.4)."


id: ebfdc762899cb4767eadf59307c9d84d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; Hudson and Vodden, 2020; Mustonen \r and Feodoroff, 2020; Uboni et al., 2020; Huntington et al., 2021). For \r example, IK and science has been used by the Skolt Sami in Finland to \r attenuate warming, drought and water quality impacts on salmonids \r through restoration of spawning and nursery habitats in the Vainosjoki \r River catchment (Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; Mustonen and \r Feodoroff, 2020; Ogar et  al., 2020). This ecological restoration of \r damaged habitats for fish represents community-led actions. In \r Aasiaat, Greenlandic hunters have implemented community-based \r oceanographic and ecological monitoring to convey IK observations \r of rapid change to the government and scientists. A special aspect of \r land use in the Russian North is the preservation of nomadic lifestyles \r of the Nenets and Chukchi (Mustonen and Mustonen, 2016), and \r while these traditional economies have undergone rapid change due \r [...]"


id: a95498ccf8f8e713e0a7edb37af6bb51
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"[...] to non-climate drivers, their land uses, observational frameworks and \r cultural matrixes remain of high importance in the context of climate \r change. Endemic responses (self-agency from within the culture) \r and Indigenous governance enable adaptation to the rapid and \r accelerating changes under way (Mustonen et al., 2018a). Therefore, \r community-based monitoring and inclusion of IK in dialogue with \r science has been an effective mechanism to detect and respond to \r climate change."


id: 247745b8b44846403200a602fd1f70ec
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"Adaptation strategies that are beneficial in the short term can \r result in long-term maladaptive outcomes. For Indigenous Peoples, \r strategies that fail to address colonialism, inequities and injustices \r undermine effective adaptation (Canosa et al., 2020; Schipper, 2020; \r Ford et al., 2021). Large 'responsiveness gaps' between impacts and \r implementation, approaches that fail to consider dynamic responses \r within social and ecological systems (which amplify or attenuate \r climate impacts), and a paucity of a priori planning can contribute \r to maladaptation (high confidence) (Pentz and Klenk, 2017; Turner \r et al., 2020b). For example, rationalisation (privatisation) can stabilise \r fisheries and incentivise long-term sustainability under stationary \r conditions, yet also promote low diversity in harvest (or livelihood) \r portfolios, and when combined with behaviours to offset climate \r driven declines in yield (e.g., effort or price), rationalisation can create \r [...]"


id: aac7d0e987d4785bd4baadad847e5afa
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"[...] lock-in to declining stocks, increasing the risk of income variability \r and collapse (Kasperski and Holland, 2013; Pinkerton and Davis, 2015; \r Holland et al., 2017; Ojea et al., 2017; Anderies et al., 2019; Fisher et al., "


id: c10444ae2852d8cab9e54a138b7ceab4
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"There are significant limits to adaptation in the polar regions related \r to the rate of warming and cascading changes that are occurring, \r which is equivalent to double and sometimes triple the global average \r depending on the region (Bush and Lemmen, 2019; IPCC, 2021). The \r rapid pace of change, such as sea ice loss, can outpace ecological \r processes and induce substantial ecological shifts (CCP6.2) (medium \r confidence). The speed of climate change in the Arctic limits options \r for adaptation in communities who rely on a narrow resource base, \r when adaptation involves loss of culture and livelihoods, and when \r the costs of adaptation make it infeasible (medium confidence) (Ford \r et al., 2015), such as for reindeer herding (Table CCP6.6; Figure CCP6.6; \r Figure  CCP6.7) (Meredith et  al., 2019). Adapting infrastructure in \r response to a rapidly changing cryosphere will be limited by available \r technologies and the relatively higher costs associated with updating \r [...]"


id: 2fe3fe92b54db66fbe42b035861e003b
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"When environmental variability is within the range of these adaptive measures, the social-ecological system can \r thrive. Thus, there are fundamental components in place in polar regions already to help ecosystems and people \r adapt to some degree of climate change. However, as climate change impacts like warming waters, sea ice loss, \r permafrost thaw and erosion systematically alter components of the system, shift species increasingly poleward, and \r disrupt linkages between species and people, the ability to adapt is reduced. There are critical tipping points (e.g., \r sea ice melt, permafrost thaw) where changes may cascade, self-reinforce and accelerate, outpacing adaptation \r actions and force natural and human systems irreversibly (on the scale of human existence) into novel regimes. \r The risk of crossing tipping points is greater and the probability much increased after mid-century under scenarios \r [...]"


id: 9b97cb5bb39a0bb85415445ac8874ab8
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"Inclusive, low-cost participatory decision making can deliver equitable \r responses to climate change (high confidence). Land use, maritime \r activities and subsistence fishery and other extracted resources in \r the polar regions are co-managed through multi-lateral and national \r government bodies. The capacity of governance systems in some \r Arctic regions to respond to climate change has strengthened recently \r (high confidence). Synthetic themes in adaptation for the Arctic have \r emerged from and since SROCC and include flexibility through diversity \r in livelihoods, and subsistence and harvest portfolios; co-management \r of resources; adaptive and ecosystem-based approaches; adoption \r of advanced technology, forecasts and longer-term projections to \r improve safety and resources management; and imperative need for \r low-cost, inclusive and participatory decision making (Kasperski and \r Holland, 2013; Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; Parlee and Wiber, 2018; \r [...]"


id: f8f7902feb97e918537337daa8911e9d
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"[...] Galappaththi et al., 2019; Holsman et al., 2020; Huntington et al., 2021; \r Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021; Mustonen and Van Dam, 2021). This \r was demonstrated in community-level adaptation by Pangnirtung Inuit \r to climate change impacts on fisheries (Galappaththi et  al., 2019). \r Inclusive approaches to co-management, especially those that enable \r diverse perspectives, embrace conflict, and address equity and justice \r across power holders, can help alleviate the risk and promote solutions \r (Raymond-Yakoubian et  al., 2017; Brattland and Mustonen, 2018; \r Parlee and Wiber, 2018; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018; Snook \r et  al., 2020). Integration across levels of management and diverse \r regional perspectives can reduce climate risks and support equitable \r adaptation measures (Allison and Bassett, 2015; Raymond-Yakoubian \r et  al., 2017; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018; Holsman et  al., \r 2020)."


id: 91cf6e31fa984759f09d2d14635d5485
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"Decision making in polar regions is complicated by globalisation \r processes and the complexity of governance arrangements from local \r to global instruments and differing stakeholder perspectives and \r needs (Hughes et  al., 2018; Stephen, 2018; Huntington et  al., 2021; \r Murphy et al., 2021; Solomonsz et al., 2021). Substantial interest in \r and management of polar resources from non-polar states can lead \r to decision making that lacks explicit consideration of local impacts \r and responses, thus reducing the effectiveness of adaptation and, in \r some cases, causing maladaptation. Participatory decision making \r is increasingly used in some sectors, but high costs of participation, \r a focus on consensus, and systematic erosion of resources can \r undermine outcomes (Mumby et  al., 2017; Parlee and Wiber, 2018; \r Mendenhall et al., 2020). In the Arctic, the societal burden of climate \r change impacts and risks will manifest at the local level, and thus \r [...]"


id: dfa3d8039fbd104dfaceb24e5e6a732e
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"[...] the importance of local scale leadership and involvement in decision \r making is essential for effective adaptation (AMAP, 2017)."


id: c76f59c279adca83e2fad2df8d8e247b
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"and resilience and promote adaptive pathways (Cinner et  al., 2016; \r Weymouth and Hartz-Karp, 2019), although explicit measures may \r be needed to reduce costs and increase representation, enhance \r transparency, embrace dissent and clarify accountability are needed \r as these are not inherent outcomes (Lynham et al., 2017; Parlee and \r Wiber, 2018). EBM, which includes provisions aimed at sustaining \r critical connections within and among social and ecological systems, \r enhances resilience and attenuates climate impacts on ecosystems and \r provisioning services; for example, EBM enhances climate resilience \r for Antarctic krill and Northeast Arctic cod fisheries (Troell et  al., \r 2017; Meyer et al., 2020) and forestalls fishery collapse in the Bering \r Sea in the near term (Holsman et al., 2020). Increasing likelihood of \r transboundary resources, interactions and novel commerce may strain \r existing regulatory and international agreements, suggesting that a \r [...]"


id: bf9e8949e4d22551a572e0d87dc5ceb9
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"[...] priori governance agreements designed to manage climate risks and \r aimed at attenuating potential conflicts over resources and regions \r may be important for resolving these issues (Parlee and Wiber, 2018; \r Mendenhall et al., 2020)."


id: 76ba0278c52bea85e6c88f978406e454
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"Climate change disproportionately impacts Indigenous Peoples \r (Box  CCP6.2), which directly affects their livelihoods, health and \r Sustainable Development Goal targets. For residents in the Arctic, \r a sustainable development pathway has been found to be highly \r effective if a self-determined development model is employed (very \r high confidence). Known determinants of Indigenous self-determined \r development in regions in the Arctic, include: (1) Indigenous self\u0002determined decision making (and inherent sovereignty); (2) effective \r and culturally legitimate institutions of government; (3) strategic \r vision and strategic thinking; and (4) public-spirited, nation-building \r leadership (Cornell and Kalt, 1992; Cornell and Kalt, 1998; Cornell and \r Kalt, 2007; Ritsema et  al., 2015). For Indigenous Peoples, advances \r in recognition of self-governance, land and resource sovereignty, \r and resource co-management, particularly in the North American \r [...]"


id: 8287dcb5213fd1528e57dca70e2a7e68
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content:
"[...] Arctic but also elsewhere, provide a strong basis for responding \r to climate impacts (Ford et  al., 2015; Robards et  al., 2018). These \r developments expand the solution space (Haasnoot et al., 2020) for "


id: 8c2c74ba56555ee81a2b013caea7cdb6
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content:
"responding to climate impacts, although historical and ongoing forms \r of colonialism in research and government institutions continues \r to undermine Indigenous self-determination and reinforce climate \r change vulnerability (Marino and Lazrus, 2015; Whyte et al., 2019; Ford \r et al., 2020; Snook et al., 2020). Readiness for adaptation across Arctic \r nations continues to be challenged by a number of factors, including \r the existence of pressing socioeconomic challenges, institutional \r and governmental barriers, lack of meaningful inclusion of IK in \r government planning and response, and lack of financial resources \r (Ford et al., 2015; Loring et al., 2016; AMAP, 2017; Ford et al., 2017; \r Birchall and Bonnett, 2019) (AMAP, 2018a). In Alaska, for example, the \r need to relocate high-risk villages has been recognised by researchers, \r decision makers and communities themselves for some time, and while \r progress is being made in some locations (Ristroph, 2017), institutional \r [...]"


id: 6713e185b40c2f2cbffa34559594f1d7
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"[...] barriers have generally resulted in negligible progress (Bronen and \r Chapin, 2013; Marino and Lazrus, 2015; Albert et al., 2018; Rosales \r et al., 2021)."


id: 1756f26018d7a964dbe9781276e9ec88
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vector_id: 1326
content:
"Rapid changes occurring in polar systems are clear and unequivocal, \r indicating that swift and effective responses are urgently needed \r to avoid substantial future impacts and reduce risks to polar social \r and ecological systems. Some underlying principles emerge from this \r assessment that appear fundamental to achieving climate resilient \r development in polar systems (Figure  CCP6.8) because they could \r facilitate rapid, equitable and just responses to achieve climate \r resilience. These principles include having locally relevant and \r accessible tools and services (e.g., regional forecasts and projections) \r to support climate-informed decision making, along with adequate \r and appropriate resourcing (including finance and integrated \r planning) for climate adaptation and for responding to emergencies. \r Effective decision making processes integrate across sectors, all levels \r of governance, including through multi-national instruments, and, \r [...]"


id: a43bd038ea6edf53c5fc12a81de840d3
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"[...] most importantly, apply low-cost and inclusive participatory processes \r to address gender, equitable and socially just outcomes. In the Arctic, \r there is evidence that overcoming colonialism through meaningful \r and explicit inclusion of IK in research and resource management, as \r well as co-management and self-determination in decision making, \r are effective measures to support equitable climate resilience across \r multiple sectors. Lastly, climate resilience is strongly dependent on \r both mitigation of climate change as well as effective adaptation to \r meet the challenges of unprecedented change in polar regions."


id: 125770aa13059e44f6a81b1a2ecc8653
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content:
"Climate change is already impacting tropical forests around the world, \r including through distributional shifts of forest biomes, changes in \r species composition, biomass, pests and diseases, and increases in \r forest fires (high confidence). These impacts are often compounded by \r non-climatic factors such as conversion of land for other uses, burning \r to clear land, mining, and road and infrastructure development. It is \r notable that, despite societal awareness and financial opportunities \r to restore forests (Brancalion and Chazdon, 2017), tropical forests are \r increasingly threatened. For instance, the conversion of tropical forests \r to large-scale agricultural production (mainly soybeans, oil palm, maize, \r cotton, livestock), is among the strongest drivers of species richness \r decline of both flora and fauna, thereby impacting the adaptation \r opportunities of ecosystems and local people to climate change (IPBES, \r [...]"


id: 845bc2d3c731e62cf2c88fbfce90ca81
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"[...] 2018). Reducing direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and forest \r degradation is therefore critical to building, maintaining or enhancing \r the resilience of tropical forests against climate and non-climate \r drivers alike (high confidence)."


id: 73be6582191ab31ea8cd13b9622abdde
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content:
"Building on what has been presented in IPCC AR5, SR15 and SRCCL, \r Section CCP7.2 first briefly describes the types and extent of tropical \r forest ecosystems, and then looks at current rates and drivers of \r deforestation and forest degradation. Section CCP7.3 presents current \r and projected climate change impacts on tropical trees and forests, \r focusing primarily on drought, heat and fires, looking from physiological \r responses to risks, projected climate change impact and forest \r resilience. Section CCP7.4 addresses the impacts of climate change \r and tropical forest destruction on the livelihoods and well-being of \r communities and peoples living in or being strongly dependent upon \r tropical forests. This section includes a Box on Indigenous knowledge \r and local knowledge and community-based adaptation. Section \r CCP7.5 assesses adaptation options for the sustainable management \r of tropical forests drawing upon the protection, management and \r [...]"


id: f22059e778eaa0b060b18804ff042f97
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"[...] restoration framework, and includes a Box on the connection between \r sustainable forest management and the United Nations Sustainable \r Development Goals. Section CCP7.6, finally, assesses opportunities \r and challenges of tropical forest governance to maintain and enhance \r resilience against climate change impacts on forests."


id: e5b04e363c62674b155ae73010aa5d01
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"forest, tropical shrubland, tropical dry forest and tropical mountain \r system (Table  CCP7.1; Figure  CCP7.2). Mangroves are not explicitly \r considered in the FAO classification. Tropical rainforest occurs largely \r in South America, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia, and is the \r most intact tropical forest biome (Table CCP7.1). Significant portions \r of tropical moist forest, which abut tropical rainforest in many regions \r but experience a longer dry season, have been lost in most regions \r (Table CCP7.2). Tropical moist forest typically grades into the highly \r threatened tropical dry forest ecological zone, of which only about a \r third exists under forest cover at present. Only about 44% of tropical \r mountain systems, which occur approximately above 1000 m above \r mean sea level, are presently under forest cover. While the FAO \r classification provides the potential tropical ecological zones (roughly, \r [...]"


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"[...] 'vegetation types'), there are large differences in the extents of global \r tropical forest biomes which are still remaining as reported by different \r sources (Sayre et al., 2020; Ocon et al., 2021). These differences result \r from differences in biome definition, data source, the definition of \r 'forest', and the method used for classifying remotely sensed data. For \r example, the reported global area of tropical dry forests ranges from \r 105 to 645 Mha (Pan et al., 2013; Bastin et al., 2017; Ocon et al., 2021)."


id: d27a3babdf6353bdb10149f75a7434a0
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vector_id: 34385
content:
"75% of taxa extinction found in Earth's 'big five' mass extinction events \r (Barnosky et al., 2011; Diaz et al., 2019; Davison et al., 2021). Even \r though species-area relationships tend to overestimate extinction \r rates (He and Hubbell, 2011), there is evidence that species richness \r in tropical forests is alarmingly approaching or surpassing the taxa \r extinction value in this period (45% for dung beetles, 51% for lizards, \r 65% for ants, and 80% for mammals) should deforestation and habitat \r loss continue at the current pace (Alroy, 2017; Ceballos et al., 2017). \r Moreover, there is reasonable understanding that these numbers are \r underestimated and, as such, tropical forest loss and degradation \r alone will precipitate a sixth mass extinction event (Giam, 2017). A \r total of 13 out of the 25 global biodiversity hotspots for conservation \r are located in tropical forests, such as Brazil's Atlantic Forest and \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] India's Western Ghats/Sri Lanka (Myers et al., 2000). While forest loss \r and degradation have been the main cause of tropical biodiversity loss \r in the past, climate change now arises as a major threat not only for \r individual tropical forest species or taxa--as already observed for frogs "


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"Deforestation and forest degradation both affect carbon stocks, \r biodiversity loss and the provision of ecosystem services, leading to \r a reduction in resilience to climate change and exacerbating forest \r landscape vulnerability even in the absence of direct anthropogenic \r action (high confidence) (Barlow et  al., 2016; Aleixo et  al., 2019; \r Feng et  al., 2021; Saatchi et  al., 2021). There is also clear evidence \r of deforestation influencing temperatures and the hydrological cycle \r at local to regional scales resulting in reduced precipitation and \r evaporation and increased runoff relative to unaffected areas (high \r confidence) [CCP7.3.6] (Jia et al., 2019; Douville et al., 2021). Negative \r trends in biodiversity and ecosystems are predicted to undermine \r 80% of the Sustainable Development Goals targets related to poverty, \r hunger, health, water, cities, climate, oceans and land (IPBES, 2019). \r Therefore, besides greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, reducing the \r [...]"


id: 8719bb31889756d0cd106b9223a2c669
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] driving forces leading to deforestation and forest degradation is of \r the utmost importance for forest resilience, biodiversity protection, \r avoiding regional climatic changes and the provision of critical \r ecosystem services, and communities whose livelihoods depend on \r forests (high confidence) (Curtis et  al., 2018; IPBES, 2019; Jia et  al., \r 2019; Seymour and Harris, 2019; Portner et al., 2021; Saatchi et al., \r 2021)."


id: 67f26f9b87329f211f8a29635ead7c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15558
content:
"International and market forces, particularly commodity markets and, \r increasingly, large-scale land acquisitions are also key underlying \r drivers (high confidence) (Assuncao et al., 2015; Henders et al., 2015; \r Conigliani et al., 2018; Ingalls et al., 2018; Garrett et al., 2019; Pendrill\r et al., 2019b; Kissinger, 2020; Neef, 2020; Hoang and Kanemoto, 2021) \r [WGII Chapter 5.13]. Deforestation related to commodity imports is \r increasing, illustrating the growing influence of global markets in \r deforestation dynamics (Henders et al., 2015). Although some of this \r production is consumed domestically, 29-39% of deforestation was \r driven by international trade, primarily from Europe, China, the Middle \r East and North America (Pendrill et al., 2019a). While many developed \r countries, as well as China and India, have achieved net domestic \r forest gains, their consumption patterns have increased deforestation \r embodied in their imports to varying degrees, frequently from \r [...]"


id: 1829fb73a93e216ec708f625c2f49dd9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] biodiversity hotspots (Hoang and Kanemoto, 2021). Fifty percent of the \r biodiversity loss associated with consumption in developed economies \r occurs outside their territorial boundaries (Wilting et  al., 2017). The \r increasing prominence of medium- and large-scale clearings of forest \r between 2000 and 2012, particularly in Southeast Asia and South \r America, suggests the growing need for policy interventions targeting \r industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers (Austin et al., 2017). \r However, countries have been slow to address underlying drivers such \r as international demand for agricultural commodities. A review of \r 43 countries' REDD+ readiness documents found that proposed policy \r interventions largely missed the agricultural drivers identified (Salvini\r et al., 2014). An assessment of policy responses to rubber and coffee \r production highlights the challenges governments face in identifying \r [...]"


id: 2c1559203507ba3d491931fa5785ad64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5016
content:
"[...] correlations between the direct drivers and related underlying drivers, \r with international drivers being the most challenging to address \r (Kissinger, 2020)."


id: 506ba7ff1035d661704c9960ae45be7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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vector_id: 11426
content:
"The temperature response of photosynthetic carbon uptake in tropical \r trees seems remarkably similar across moist and dry forest types, as \r well as for light-demanding, fast-growing species compared with \r shade-tolerant, slow-growing species (Slot and Winter, 2017). It is \r generally agreed that photosynthesis in tropical species can acclimate \r to moderate levels of warming but beyond this there would be no \r net gain in carbon (Slot and Winter, 2017). The factor that limits \r photosynthesis in different tropical forests will depend on water \r availability. In water-limited dry forests, photosynthesis may decline \r largely due to stomatal closure, while in wet forests the decline may \r largely be driven by warming-related changes to leaf biochemistry \r (Slot and Winter, 2017). A recent modelling approach suggests that \r the limits of photosynthetic thermal acclimation may be an increase of \r about 2degC, in terms of maximum tolerated temperature, with enhanced \r [...]"


id: e0d576eb3ae34bd4f5c78afff1f16f5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"A critical concern for plant function has been that higher temperatures \r will enhance respiration rates, potentially resulting in tropical forests \r becoming net carbon sources (rather than photosynthesis-driven \r carbon sinks) (Gatti et al., 2021). Some studies suggest that excessive \r respiration is less of a concern as respiration rates can acclimate \r to elevated temperatures over time (Lombardozzi et  al., 2015; Pau \r et  al., 2018). Thermal acclimation of respiration has been shown in \r a seasonally dry neotropical forest (Slot et  al., 2014), while models \r indicate that increases in plant respiration could halve by the end of \r the 21st century through acclimation, thereby partly ameliorating the \r potential release of carbon from tropical forests (Vanderwel et  al., \r 2015). A contrary view is that plant physiological processes, such as \r the photosynthesis in tropical canopy trees, are already functioning \r [...]"


id: fda6932e0a104dfa8982f53da684ec1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] at levels close to or beyond their thermal optimum limits and that any \r further temperature increase would turn them from a sink into a carbon \r source (Mau et al., 2018). One of the most pressing questions regarding \r forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels is whether trees \r experience enhanced growth rates as a result of the so-called CO2\r fertilisation effect [Box 2.3 in IPCC 2019b]. Observed changes in the \r terrestrial carbon sink and process-based vegetation models indicate \r that tropical vegetation response to CO2 fertilisation (Schimel et al., \r 2015) is combined with other factors such as nitrogen deposition \r and length of the growing season, while aerosol-induced cooling \r may also have played a role in enhancing the carbon sink [Box 2.3 in \r IPCC 2019b]. Contrastingly, evidence for CO2 fertilisation of growth \r in individual tropical tree species is generally lacking or controversial \r [...]"


id: 91b203c5315105894ff5056a7be0136
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] (Silva and Anand, 2013), or not as substantial as expected (Sampaio \r et  al., 2021). It is, however, widely agreed that the intrinsic water\u0002use efficiency of a tree, that is, the amount of carbon assimilated as \r biomass per unit of water used, increases under elevated atmospheric \r CO2 levels owing to the regulation of stomata (cells on the leaf surface \r which regulate the exchange of water and gases between the plant \r and the atmosphere) (Van Der Sleen et al., 2015; Bartlett et al., 2016; \r Rahman and Alam, 2016; Keeling et  al., 2017). Tropical dry forests \r (ca. 1000 mm annual rainfall) exhibit changes in water-use efficiency \r (WUE), relative to CO2, at least twice as much as tropical moist forests \r (c. 4000 mm rainfall) (Adams et al., 2019)."


id: e34e7ed73f8cee0b113aff9d432371cd
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content:
"Drought-related mortality of tropical trees shows complex patterns \r which could change forest community structure and composition \r with cascading effects on biodiversity (McDowell et al., 2020). During \r drought, the mortality rate is enhanced in larger-sized trees in tropical \r forests (as is the case with all forests globally), with significant impacts \r on forest structure, carbon storage and regional hydrology (Bennett\r et al., 2015). The mortality rate of neotropical moist forest trees appears \r to be consistently increasing since the 1980s (McDowell et al., 2020), \r with plant functional types such as softwood, pioneer and evergreen \r species suffering higher mortality during years of extreme drought \r (Aleixo et al., 2019). Large trees (>30 cm diameter at breast height \r (dbh)) in tropical dry forests have much lower mortality rates than \r those reported for tropical moist forests (Suresh et al., 2010). Contrary \r [...]"


id: 4fadec6ec8600a953ddd770b5f916caa
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content:
"[...] to expectation, during prolonged droughts in these dry forests, deeper\u0002rooted tree species are more likely to die than shallow-rooted ones, \r which are more adapted to changes in soil moisture content, because \r of water depletion in the deepest unsaturated zone (Chitra-Tarak et al., \r 2018)."


id: 9d6af9a1c3640297de6fad230e706758
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24932
content:
"Regeneration of tropical tree seedlings and their response to a \r changing climate is inadequately understood. Experimental work \r suggests that tropical moist forest tree seedlings and saplings can \r acclimate photosynthetically to moderate levels of warming and, \r unlike adults, may even exhibit increased growth rates (Cheesman \r and Winter, 2013; Slot and Winter, 2018). Some moist forest seedlings \r also show plasticity to recurrent drought episodes by enhancing their \r growth rates when favourable moisture conditions return, while others \r fail to respond (O'Brien et al., 2017). The nature of response also seems \r to be mediated by neighbourhood diversity, with greater plasticity in \r more diverse communities (O'Brien et al., 2017). Seedlings in tropical \r dry forests subject to burning show enhanced growth rates post-fire \r and within two years attain similar height of seedlings in unburnt \r areas (Pulla et al., 2015), though the environmental drivers of seedling \r [...]"


id: 604e58cd42106d248cfaf04af189a7c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"The net outcome of the population dynamics processes of growth, \r mortality and regeneration is change in species composition as a \r consequence of a changing climate. In the Amazon forests, dry habitat\u0002affiliated genera have become more abundant among the newly \r recruited trees, while the mortality of moist habitat-affiliated genera \r has increased in places where the dry season has intensified most, \r thus driving a slow shift towards a drier forest type (Esquivel-Muelbert\r et al., 2019). A similar multi-decadal shift in West-African forest species \r composition towards more dry-affiliated species as a response to long\u0002term drying has been recorded (Aguirre-Gutierrez et al., 2020). While \r upward shifts in the tree line and in the range of individual tree species \r have been recorded at several temperate mountain regions, evidence \r from the tropics is rare. A large-scale study from 200 plot inventories of \r >2000 tree species across a ~3000 m elevation gradient in the Andean \r [...]"


id: 47dbc82de162220d0860a1620b77344a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] tropics and sub-tropics has shown that the relative abundances of tree \r species from lower, warmer locations were increasing at these sites \r indicating that 'thermophilisation of vegetation' (increased domination \r of plant species from warmer locations) was indeed taking place as \r expected (Fadrique et al., 2018) [Section 2.5.4.2.1 in Chapter 2]."


id: dbb0d3d83bf6ed5c464a52d9a98183d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"Temperature rise and prolonged droughts increase the danger of fires \r in drained peatlands and tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the \r Amazon (da Silva et al., 2018; Pan et al., 2018; Sullivan Martin et al., \r 2020), resulting in large carbon emissions, which reached 11.3 Tg \r CO2 day-1 during September-October 2015 (Huijnen et  al., 2016; \r Yin et al., 2020) and changes in forest composition and biodiversity \r (Asner et al., 2000; Hoffmann et al., 2003) (high confidence). In many \r cases, tree mortality due to fire is poorly recorded in the literature, \r but the available data suggest that fire-induced mortality has \r increased in recent years (Figure CCP7.2) (Malhi et al., 2014; Brando\r et al., 2019) (high confidence). While large forest and peat fires used \r to be associated mainly with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) \r events, there is now evidence that tropical rainforests in Indonesia \r may experience higher fire danger from increased temperatures even \r [...]"


id: d8d9108903c9389ea4be636ff3bcb9d4
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"[...] during non-drought years due to high evaporation rates of fragmented \r forests (Fernandes et al., 2017; McAlpine et al., 2018). The droughts of \r 2007 and 2010 in the Amazonian region caused 12% and 5% of the \r southeastern Amazon forests to burn, respectively, as compared with \r <1% of these forests burning during non-drought years (Brando et al., \r 2014; da Silva Junior et al., 2019; Pontes-Lopes et al., 2021). Moreover, \r degraded forests in Ghana are more vulnerable to fires during droughts \r (Dwomoh et al., 2019)."


id: 9a405f917613f714d087e748af52be21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"levels in the atmosphere (Mitchard, 2018). CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth \r System Models (ESM) project an increasing future tropical carbon sink, \r which is particularly strong in the scenarios with more pronounced \r increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration (Koch et  al., 2021). \r However, major uncertainties regarding the ecophysiological processes \r governing carbon turnover and tree mortality under a changing \r climate (Hartmann et al., 2015; Pugh et al., 2020), and the ecosystem\u0002level responses of tropical forests to elevated atmospheric CO2 (Korner, \r 2009) explain the contrast between observational data and modelling \r results (Rammig and Lapola, 2021). Observational data show that \r structurally intact old-growth tropical forests have been net sinks of \r atmospheric carbon in recent decades, but there is evidence that the \r capacity of such intact tropical forests to build up carbon stock may be \r limited as biomass peaked during the 1990s and has since weakened \r [...]"


id: b28d98aab3ad047bb27a26e2484eeae3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] by 30% in the Amazon since the 1990s (high confidence), mainly due \r to increased tree mortality and faster carbon turnover, and the African \r tropical forest sink following this trend since about 2010 (Hubau et al., \r 2020; Gatti et al., 2021). From a peak pan-tropical (Amazonia, Africa \r and Southeast Asia) forest sink of 1.26 Pg C yr-1 during the 1990s, it \r is projected to decline to an uptake of only 0.29 Pg C yr-1, reaching \r zero in the Amazon, during the 2030s (Hubau et al., 2020). This decline \r will possibly be driven by the reduced rates of forest carbon uptake \r from the weakening global CO2 fertilisation effect mediated by limiting \r soil nutrient, and reduced water availability and higher temperatures \r during extreme droughts (Qie et al., 2017; Fleischer et al., 2019; Wang \r et al., 2020), reinforced by deforestation and forest degradation [IPCC \r SRCCL, 2019]."


id: b66d31668c278f86cff162d379cb6040
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29307
content:
"Besides higher temperatures, current climate risks also depend on \r regional responses to a variety of climate events. For example, tropical \r biomes across the three continents may respond differently to ENSO \r events in terms of carbon fluxes and balance. During the 2015-2016 \r ENSO event, different processes were dominant for the carbon fluxes \r anomaly in the tropical regions. In Asian forests, this anomaly was \r primarily derived from enhanced fire occurrence, in African forests \r through increased ecosystem respiration (from higher temperatures), \r and in South American forests by ecophysiological effects, through the \r gross primary production (GPP) expressed as reduced carbon uptake \r (Liu et al., 2017; van Schaik et al., 2018). It has also been shown that \r the probability of drought spells at the beginning and end of the rainy \r season is higher in the areas with the highest deforestation (Leite-Filho\r et al., 2019). Furthermore, it has been observed that Amazon rainforest \r [...]"


id: 7c96cd0db8a4ff9d2f72c2cdc5070b63
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content:
"[...] resilience is being lost faster in regions with less rainfall and in parts \r of the rainforest that are closer to human activity (IPCC, 2014; Seiler\r et al., 2015) (CCP7.3.6). Conversely, it has been pointed out, on the \r basis of vegetation indices, that temperature has a greater influence \r on resilience than does precipitation, and tropical forests are more \r resilient to climate change when they are more diverse (Feng et al., \r 2021) (CCP7.3.6)."


id: 73b9c3a7ca94b9d75613643563adac2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17610
content:
"Biomes such as seasonally dry tropical forests subject to higher \r variability in rainfall or other climatic factors may be more resilient \r to fire and drought (Pulla et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2017), though there \r could be changes in species distributions as a result of disturbances \r (Allen et  al., 2017). A regime of long-term, high rainfall variability \r seems to be critical in determining the overall resilience of tropical \r forests and savannas to climate disturbances (Ciemer et  al., 2019), \r highlighting the heterogeneity of the tropical landscape to climate \r risk. Similarly, forest composition, nutrient limitations and biodiversity \r can influence forest resilience to disturbances. Recent evidence \r suggests that the degree of forest disturbance also affects the \r mechanisms through which biodiversity influences forest functioning \r (Schmitt et al., 2020). Neotropical secondary forests also showed high \r resilience by maintaining their biomass through high productivity and \r [...]"


id: f0d0347ede8d78617a55fade51f944b6
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] rates of recovery following major disturbances (Poorter et al., 2016). \r However, the possibility of tropical forests reaching 'tipping points' \r in their resilience and experiencing rapid die-off cannot be ruled out \r (Verbesselt et al., 2016)."


id: d86c9380aabee7521723c21fd325876b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35376
content:
"Offline (uncoupled) vegetation model simulations indicate that the \r extensive tropical and subtropical forests of the Americas could \r gradually transit towards a savanna-like vegetation, with the most \r pronounced shifts (of up to 600 km northward) from relatively \r stable forests to savanna-forest transitions occurring in the eastern \r Amazonian region (Huntingford et al., 2013; Anadon et al., 2014; Nobre\r et  al., 2016) depending largely on the yet uncertain strength of the \r CO2 fertilisation effect and future dry season length, with important \r feedbacks on the flux of moisture from the forest to the atmosphere \r (Zemp et  al., 2017). More limited simulations for Central American \r rainforests under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also support a transition in some \r areas to lower biomass tropical dry forest and savanna-like vegetation \r (Lyra et  al., 2017). Such transitions from one biome type to another \r will cause major changes in forest structure, species compositions and \r [...]"


id: 12842d8eb01741c552a5799e7f80c967
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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vector_id: 455
content:
"[...] overall biodiversity. Additionally, the difficulty of species to migrate \r through highly fragmented tropical forested regions (such as West \r Africa or South and Southeast Asia) and 'non-analogue climates', under \r a climate change scenario, poses extra pressure on tropical biodiversity \r to adapt and survive (Portner et al., 2021). Even in expansive tracts of \r forests, such as in the Amazon, climate change is expected to become \r more important than deforestation by 2050 in causing the loss of tree \r species (Gomes et al., 2019). Tropical mountain biodiversity hotspots \r (e.g., Andes, Himalayas) are particularly vulnerable to species loss due \r to elevation range shifts (Sekercioglu et al., 2008). Under a 2degC increase \r scenario, a substantial reduction of tropical montane cloud forest in \r Kenya is estimated (Los et al., 2019)."


id: 453ffa8c9a98e5004b13ce5291839fc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"Ecological adaptation and other spontaneous responses to climate \r change are discussed in Settele et al. (2015) and [AR6 WGII_Chapter \r 2] Here we consider the role of humans in managing the adaptation \r of tropical forests to climate change. The focus is on human-assisted \r adaptation options that help to maintain tropical forest ecosystems \r and not on the use of forests to supply provisioning services, such as \r timber, which is covered in [AR6 WGII_Chapter 5]. Forest management \r and agroforestry are discussed, but only with regard to their role in \r contributing to the adaptation of tropical ecosystems now and in the \r future. Maintaining ecosystems has a range of co-benefits for humans, \r including through 'ecosystem-based adaptation'. These are explored \r in [Box 1.3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2, Box CCP7.2]. \r Although there are a number of potentially valuable response \r options, it is clear that certain hazards, such as heatwaves, may be \r [...]"


id: 4cad34c5fa352e8f4d32107b2f25169f
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content:
"[...] impossible to manage at the forest community level and require long\u0002term interventions at the landscape scale. Similarly, it will be difficult \r for forest managers to adapt to indirect climate-related ecosystem \r disturbances such as loss of pollination agents, invasive species or \r pest and diseases outbreaks (Allen et al., 2010; Anderegg et al., 2020). \r Equally important in adapting to increased pressure from climate \r change are efforts to minimise disturbance from non-climatic stress \r factors (e.g., overharvesting, pollution and land use change; Malhi\r et al., 2014; Keenan, 2015; Barlow et al., 2016; Portner et al., 2021). \r Under some emissions scenarios, projected climate change impacts are \r of such severity that no adaptation measure is likely to protect natural \r forest systems; for example, with warming of 4degC, some tropical \r forests are at risk of die-back from high temperature (Malhi et  al., \r 2014; Settele et al., 2015; Trumbore et al., 2015)."


id: f137b4bb7e31faaa50e4a1216bf19f59
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content:
"The decrease of tropical forest area due to land-use change will put \r additional pressures, threatening livelihood practices, traditional land \r arrangements and customary rights of forest-dependent communities, \r and impacting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of Climate \r Action and Life on Land (Djoudi and Brockhaus, 2011; Tiani et  al., \r 2015; Hurlbert et  al., 2019). Globalised trade relations, agricultural \r expansion, illegal activities and violent conflicts have been identified as \r important non-climatic drivers of forest degradation (high confidence) \r (Barr and Sayer, 2012; Rist et  al., 2012; Shanley et  al., 2012; Ruiz\u0002Mallen et al., 2017; IPBES, 2018; IPBES et al., 2018). Globally, about \r 70% of tropical forest areas occur outside protected areas. In Latin \r America and the Caribbean, Indigenous Peoples and local communities \r have predominant ownership of tropical forest lands, while in West \r and Central Africa and Asia, forested areas are largely state-owned \r [...]"


id: 8f629cd064b18efccaea2c6635fc2d2e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] with exacerbating problems of governance, inequity and conflict with \r customary land tenure systems (Blaser et al., , 2011)."


id: 5b697c4f66d93c591b3ad257da5e7448
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Further research by experts and local stakeholders and Indigenous \r Peoples is required to design more accurate and comprehensive \r indicators (Huong et  al., 2019). Solid evidence shows important \r knowledge and experiences that Indigenous Peoples and local \r communities contribute to disaster risk reduction and management \r (IPBES, 2018a). Recognising the land rights of Indigenous Peoples \r is among the most cost-effective actions to address climate and \r biodiversity risks according to FAO and FILAC (2021). In Indigenous \r Peoples' forest lands in the Amazon basin, deforestation rates are up \r to 50% lower than in other forested areas (Ding et  al., 2016), and \r Indigenous management is correlated with reduced carbon emissions \r (Blackman and Veit, 2018). Indigenous authors and local authors have \r pointed out the role of traditional systems of governance, knowledge \r and belief systems in the resilience of Indigenous Peoples and rural \r [...]"


id: 2e73591d845bb65c236259c2fe1546eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] communities in the Amazonian and Andean regions, by regulating seed \r access and the conservation of agrobiodiversity and tropical forest \r (Camico et  al., 2021; Mustonen et  al., 2021). In the Philippines, the \r traditional land use system Muyong promotes sustainable agroforestry \r management based on customary land laws (Camacho et al., 2016). \r Participation of local stakeholders and the inclusion of a gender \r perspective contribute to prioritising resource allocation and the \r development of effective legal frameworks for adaptation (Shah et al., \r 2013; Tiani et al., 2015; Ihalainen et al., 2017; Collantes et al., 2018). \r There is a need to combine quantitative and qualitative methods, and \r increase research efforts to integrated approaches; including multi\u0002scalar and interdisciplinary assessments of vulnerability (Djoudi et al., \r 2013; Guidi et al., 2018; FAO and CIFOR, 2019)."


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"Actions to protect the extent or reduce the disturbance pressure \r on forest systems contribute to the capacity of these systems to \r respond to climate change (increasing resistance and resilience) (high \r confidence) (Millar et  al., 2007; Schmitz et  al., 2015; Settele et  al., \r 2015; Sakschewski et al., 2016; Hisano et al., 2018). Furthermore, if \r implemented sufficiently well, efforts to manage and restore forests \r also improve the capacity of forest systems to respond to future climate \r stressors (increasing resilience and responsiveness). Table  CCP7.3 \r gives an overview of adaptation strategies for tropical forests \r within the framework of protect, manage, restore (Sayer et al., 2003; \r Portner et al., 2021). In assessing the available adaptation options, it \r can be useful to distinguish between actions focused on protecting \r forest extent, managing biodiversity, managing ecosystem function \r or restoring ecosystem services (Seppala, 2009), Figure  CCP7.5 and \r [...]"


id: 2fdae13969f95528c4ea5f2a47faadef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"[...] Table  CCP7.4 give a detailed assessment of the major adaptation \r options in this context. Beyond these specific interventions, and in \r several cases underpinning them, there is an increasing awareness that \r effective management and adaptation of tropical forests requires an \r appreciation of IK, LK and CBA for implementation to be meaningful; \r these approaches are assessed in [Box CCP7.1]"


id: 38d4f2aa89b7fcde9c7adebf61f6ede7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"Purely scientific knowledge, albeit indispensable, is insufficient to address climate change. Indigenous knowledge systems, embedded in \r social and cultural structures, are integral to climate resilience and adaptation (high confidence) (Ajani, 2013; Tengo et al., 2014; Hiwasaki\r et al., 2015; Roue and Nakashima, 2018) [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.3 (Adger et al. 2014), AR5 WGII Section 20.4.2 (Denton et al. 2014), SRCCL \r Section 4.8.1 (Olsson et al. 2019), SRCCL Section 4.8.2 (Olsson et al. 2019), SR15 Section 4.3.5.5 (de Coninck et al. 2018) ]. knowledge \r and local knowledge (IK and LK) and community-based adaptation (CBA) have received increasing recognition across all sectors (high \r confidence) (Reid and Huq, 2014; Wright et al., 2014; Moste, 2015) [SRCCL Section 4.1.6 (Olsson et al. 2019), SRCCL Section 5.3.5 (Mbow \r et al. 2019), SR15 Box 4.3 (de Coninck et al. 2018)] (Figure Box CCP7.1.1). Forest Indigenous knowledge (IK) is closely linked to traditional \r [...]"


id: 8745684c7d7ce4be0403a08b0d22965a
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"[...] land-use practices and local governance (Roberts et al., 2009); it is embodied in art, rituals, food, agriculture and customary laws, among \r others (Hiwasaki et al., 2015; Camico et al., 2021). CBA is a community-led process based on its desires, priorities, knowledge and capacities \r which empowers people as central players in climate change adaptation (Reid et al., 2009) [SRCCL 5.3.5]."


id: 1688ac716ee57f90c8568d58094b85d3
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"Several authors have highlighted the need to foster a respectful dialogue between Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge\r (LK) and modern science towards a holistic research model (high confidence) (Berkes, 2010; Ajani, 2013; Tengo et al., 2014; Roue and \r Nakashima, 2018) [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.3 (Adger et al. 2014) , AR5 WGII Section 14.2.2 (Noble et al. 2014)], but few ecological \r studies have attempted this integration (Keenan, 2015; Vadigi, 2016). Examples in tropical forest ecosystems include topics such as \r monitoring climate impacts; local climates; seed, water and land management resilience-increasing practices; and climate threats to \r traditional agriculture (Parrotta and Agnoletti, 2012; Fernandez-Llamazares et al., 2017; Camico et al., 2021; Mustonen et al., 2021). A \r growing number of methods are available to help this dialogue [SRCCL Section 7.5.1 (Hurlbert et al. 2019)] (Reid et al., 2009; Tengo et al., \r [...]"


id: 2e3c3cfcf50310a35b68bba2f3b445da
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"[...] 2014; Tengo et al., 2017; Roue and Nakashima, 2018) (Figure Box CCP7.1.1). While there is expanding interest among decision makers, \r researchers, Indigenous Peoples and civil society on IK and LK (Hiwasaki et al., 2015; Maillet and Ford, 2016), gaps remain regarding links \r between place-and-culture dimensions and adaptive capacities (Ford et al., 2016)."


id: cd29c72a232b9985b2011877b6f23acd
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"Enhancing Adaptive Capacity through IK and LK and CBA: Lessons Learned\r Useful lessons can be drawn from experience to effectively incorporate IK, LK and CBA in adaptation strategies. A number of barriers \r to adaptation have also been recognised (Figure Box CCP7.1.1). Considering that IK and LK is increasingly threatened by colonisation, \r acculturation, dispossession of land rights, and environmental and social change, among others [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.3 (Adger et al. \r 2014); SR15Section 4.3.5 (de Coninck et  al. 2018)] Seppala (2009) highlighted the importance of supporting community efforts to \r document, vitalise and protect it. It is essential to consider goals, identity and livelihood priorities of Indigenous Peoples and local \r communities, including those beyond natural resource management (Reid et al., 2009; Diamond and Ansharyani, 2018; Zavaleta et al., \r [...]"


id: 8e67c35a27666fa214e5c163ce45d7f8
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"[...] 2018). Adaptation processes are more likely to be transformational when they are locally driven (medium confidence: medium evidence, \r high agreement) (Chung Tiam Fook, 2015; Chanza and De Wit, 2016). This requires adaptive institutional frameworks, capable of \r navigating the complex dynamic of socio-ecosystems (medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement) (Locatelli et al., 2008; \r Simane and Zaitchik, 2014) [AR5 WGII Section 12.3.2 (Adger et al. 2014), SR15 Section 5.3.1 (Roy et al. 2018)]. It is important to consider \r power relations and priority differences to avoid causing social disruption and inequality. 'We need to keep asking: Who benefits? Who \r loses? Who is empowered? Who is disempowered?' (Reid et al., 2009)."


id: 4ed23d70f8a8e6d57cdbc975b7df46ff
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"To retain functioning tropical forests, adaptation will need to take \r place across many scales, from individual stands to interconnected \r landscapes, and upwards to regional and global policy changes. From a \r global perspective, the most effective adaptation and mitigation option \r is to reduce and reverse the loss of area in tropical forest ecosystems \r (Alkama and Cescatti, 2016; Griscom et al., 2017). Maximising tropical \r forest extent has well-described benefits in mitigating CO2 emissions \r and in the role of forests regulating global climate (high confidence) \r (Smith et  al., 2014). For nations with tropical forests, adaptation is \r largely achieved through sustainable management of forested areas, \r enforcing the land rights/land tenure of Indigenous Peoples, and \r through establishment of protected areas (Table  CCP7.4; Seppala, \r 2009; Portner et al., 2021). Some of this is achieved through schemes \r [...]"


id: b640ea21419de8b1d3a58e0240f7dae9
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"[...] incentivising landowners to retain tree cover for the express purpose of \r mitigating climate change impacts (e.g., PES- Payments for Ecosystem \r Services, REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest "


id: 1058099e24f097cc5acbc9be3028c9de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"et al., 2017). In protected areas, this would typically involve reinforcing \r existing conservation objectives through adaptive management \r (Salafsky et al., 2001; Ellis et al., 2015; Tanner-McAllister et al., 2017; \r Hagerman and Pelai, 2018), including support for natural regeneration \r (Chazdon et al., 2016). It is also possible to improve forest cover and \r interconnectivity through restoration or afforestation. There are many \r technical guides to improve the implementation and success rate of \r such approaches (Table CCP7.4) (Lamb and Gilmour, 2003; Shimamoto\r et al., 2018; Strassburg et al., 2019) and funding support specifically \r aimed at climate change adaptation and mitigation (e.g., REDD+). \r In some instances, climate change can alter climate suitability to the \r extent that managers need to allow for a transition to a new habitat \r type (e.g., from tropical forest to savanna), adaptive management can \r [...]"


id: 4b97747043463fe0962cf1601f79599e
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"[...] help recognise and facilitate these transitions (Seppala, 2009; Schmitz\r et  al., 2015; Lapola et  al., 2018). Depending on local conditions, it \r will be necessary to adapt to specific stress factors that are likely to \r increase in prevalence or severity because of climate change, such as \r heatwaves, drought events and forest fires (Allen et al., 2010; Malhi\r et  al., 2014; Seidl et  al., 2017). Although it is typically not possible \r to link individual events or adaptation measures to climate change, \r the effectiveness of technical interventions has been illustrated in a \r broader forest management context. Table CCP7.4 assesses the costs \r and benefits of different adaptation options based on the available \r literature. However, it should be noted that there is lack of information \r on many potential adaptation interventions, especially in the context \r of tropical forests (Locatelli et al., 2010; Bele et al., 2015; Keenan, 2015; \r [...]"


id: 5915058fbc5e424d7ea06162d12525ab
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"[...] Hagerman and Pelai, 2018). The sections below and Figure  CCP7.5 \r offer a framework for optimising management of complex tropical \r forest ecosystems within a landscape context, through a range of \r interconnected adaptation options."


id: bac0c9a0bec236f60818a703b53b6c5b
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"Forests will be affected by several climate change impacts that \r will require forest management towards fulfilling four objectives: \r maintain forest area; facilitate biodiversity adaptation; maintain \r healthy functioning forest ecosystems; and restore ecosystem services \r (including productive capacity) (Seppala, 2009), which complement \r the more conventional approaches to protect, manage and restore \r forests (Sayer et  al., 2003). This is dependent on location-specific \r conditions that are defined by the type of forest and land tenure \r regimes or dominant actors across forest landscapes. The analysis \r here proposes 10 adaptation responses that focus on the adaptation \r potential of tropical forests to climate change and are linked to the \r management objectives identified (Figure  CCP7.5). Each response \r option (1-10) implies variable economic costs and benefits, influenced \r [...]"


id: 8f2957384288ad6b11097b3a6f5ef992
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content:
"[...] by location-specific conditions, including several important non\u0002monetised benefits. The figure suggests the most relevant situations \r in which the different response options hold greater potential to meet \r the forest management objectives for addressing expected climate \r change impacts."


id: 475dd1ed4008cfcbf034d2dab4af4bd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"Deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forests has grown \r in prominence as priorities for environmental governance in the face \r of climate change, given the large share of forest and land use GHG \r emissions in the national profiles of tropical forest countries (high \r confidence) (Butt et al., 2015; IPCC, 2019b). This is reflected in Parties' \r Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement \r (UNFCCC, 2021). Significant investments in REDD+ readiness, improved \r forest monitoring, assessments of drivers of deforestation and forest \r degradation and related policy responses, and stakeholder engagement \r have occurred over the past decade in countries across Africa, Asia\u0002Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean (Hein et al., 2018; UN\u0002REDD Programme, 2018; World Bank, 2018). Fifty-three percent of \r countries use the highest-quality remote sensing data for forest \r monitoring and reporting, covering 93% of forest cover (Nesha et al., \r [...]"


id: fb94a3378d8bd80a548e98b10cb399fc
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"[...] 2021). However, improved monitoring has not yet translated into forest \r governance effectiveness. Since the New York Declaration on Forests \r was endorsed in 2014, average annual humid tropical primary forest \r loss has accelerated by 44% (NYDF, 2019). Policy responses towards \r conservation and ecosystem resilience are found to be insufficient \r to stem the direct and indirect drivers of nature deterioration (high \r confidence) (IPBES, 2019). For governance measures to be effective, it \r is necessary to alter the direct and underlying drivers that are leading \r to forest destruction or impeding the implementation of sustainable \r forest management practices and actions to restore degraded forests \r (high confidence) (Section CCP7.2.3; Section CCP7.5; UNFCCC, 2013)."


id: 8649f2efe73490de12edf03a08dce930
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"The onset and duration of dry and rainy seasons also changes. A prolonged wet season has excessive rains which \r cause flash floods and substantially disturbs the fruiting cycle of many plant species. Due to high rainfall and high \r humidity, most flowers of forest trees fail to mature, and hence essentially deplete fruit production. Most trees in \r tropical forests require a short period of a dry season to have a mass fruiting season. On the other hand, a prolonged \r dry season causes soils to dry in deeper layers, higher atmospheric demand for water vapour and enhanced forest \r fires. In the tropical humid forests, the majority of forest fires are anthropogenic. In Southeast Asia, peat fires cause \r large carbon emissions and haze pollution which harms locals and people in neighbouring countries. The impact on \r tropical forest comes also from the sea level rise which is due to changes in salinity and sedimentation rates, and \r [...]"


id: 901bed574cf7ead1c48fa71bfefb2829
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"Projected impacts of climate change on the tropical forest might be detrimental to safeguards of local communities \r and a significant number of flora and fauna in the tropics. In southeastern Amazon, reduction in precipitation, \r due to changes in the climate pattern, associated with intense deforestation and land cover change are leading \r to reduction of productivity in the remaining forest areas, and might lead to a large-scale change in the forest \r structure which can become a savannah. In Southeast Asia, in particular in Indonesia and Malaysia, prolonged dry \r seasons associated with the El Nino phenomenon cause extensive peat fires, releasing large amounts of carbon \r dioxide and creating various health problems related to haze pollution. Furthermore, climate change interacts \r with deforestation for agriculture (crops, livestock and plantation forestry), logging, mining or infrastructure \r [...]"


id: 2d173d295f32bcb2a45d962404061a8c
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"Contributing Authors: Sharina Abdul Halim (Malaysia), Idowu Ajibade (Nigeria/Canada/\r USA), Philip Antwi-Agyei (Ghana), Laura Astigarraga (Uruguay), Govindasamy Bala (India), \r Birgit Bednar-Friedl (Austria), Magnus Benzie (Sweden/UK), Richard Betts (UK), Rachel Bezner \r Kerr (USA), Joern Birkmann (Germany), Martina Angela Caretta (USA), Tamma Carleton (USA), \r Connor Cavanagh (Ireland/Norway), Winston Chow (Singapore), Gueladio Cisse (Mauritania/ \r Switzerland/France), Andrew Constable (Australia), Mark John Costello (New Zealand/Norway/\r Ireland), Jackie Dawson (Canada), Richard Dawson (UK), Heleen de Coninck (the Netherlands), \r Simon Donner (Canada), Sybren Drijfhout (the Netherlands), Laurent Drouet (Italy), Virginie K.E. \r Duvat (France), Kristie Ebi (USA), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), \r Alexandra Paige Fischer (USA), Isabel Fletcher (UK), James Ford (UK), Eranga Galappaththi \r [...]"


id: 505f20bdead6a94bc873d2e6c83150c9
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"[...] (Sri Lanka/Canada), Oliver Geden (Germany), Francois Gemenne (Belgium), Veronika Ginzburg \r (Russia), Patrick Gonzalez (USA), Celina Guivarch (France), Neal Haddaway (Sweden/Germany/\r UK), Isabel Hagen (Switzerland), Stephane Hallegatte (France/USA), Toshihiro Hasegawa (Japan), \r Masahiro Hashizume (Japan), Stefanie Heinicke (Germany), Cullen Hendrix (USA), Kevin Hennessy \r (Australia), Tom Hertel (USA), Jeremy Hess (USA), Helene Hewitt (UK), Kirstin Holsman (USA), \r Veronika Huber (Germany/Spain), Christian Huggel (Switzerland), Bramka Jafino (Indonesia/the \r Netherlands), Kripa Jagannathan (Canada/India/USA), Rhosanna Jenkins (UK), Chris Jones (UK), \r Vhalinavho Khavhagali (South Africa), Elco Koks (the Netherlands), Gerhard Krinner (France), Judy \r Lawrence (New Zealand), Goneri Le Cozannet (France), Alexandra Lesnikowski (Canada), Karen \r Levy (USA), Tabea Lissner (Germany), Rachel Lowe (UK), Simone Lucatello (Mexico), Yong Luo \r [...]"


id: bcb4abb1cb64ce8eee02e70c9f8c84d0
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"[...] (China), Brendan Mackey (Australia), Katherine Mach (USA), Shobha Maharaj (Germany/Trinidad \r and Tobago), Custodio Matavel (Mozambique/Germany), Timon McPhearson (USA), Aurelie \r Mejean (France), Veruska Muccione (Switzerland/Italy), Aditi Mukherji (India), Didacus Namanya \r (Uganda), Gerald Nelson (USA), David Obura (Kenya), Jean Ometto (Brazil), Friederike Otto (UK/"


id: 23a54570bd7faf9afafde0132eea7e39
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"Germany), Camille Parmesan (UK/USA), Anthony Patt (Switzerland), Patricia Pinho (Brazil/UK), \r Franziska Piontek (Germany), Prajal Pradhan (Nepal/Germany), Jeff Price (UK), Joacim Rocklov \r (Sweden), Steven Rose (USA), Alexander Ruane (USA), Inga Sauer (Germany), Daniela Schmidt \r (Germany/UK), Alcade Segnon (Republic of Benin), Sonia Seneviratne (Switzerland), Olivia \r Serdeczny (Poland/Germany), Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah (Bangladesh/UK), Yuanyuan \r Shang (China/Australia), Roopam Shukla (India/Germany), AR Siders (USA), Nicholas P. Simpson \r (Zimbabwe/South Africa), Chandi Singh (India), Asha Sitati (Kenya), Tom Spencer (UK), Nicola \r Stevens (South Africa), Masahiro Sugiyama (Japan), Emily Theokritoff (Germany), Maria Cristina \r Tirado-von der Pahlen (Spain/USA), Christopher Trisos (South Africa), Nicola Ulibarri (USA), \r Mariana Vale (Brazil), Krispa Vasant (India), Ana Vicedo-Carbrera (Spain/Switzerland), Thomas \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] Vogt (Germany), Colette Wabnitz (Canada), Anita Wreford (New Zealand), Gary Yohe (USA), Carol \r Zavaleta (Peru), Xuebin Zhang (Canada), Zhibin Zhang (China)"


id: ff7a65857cbaa92a96753717e46da767
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content:
"Solar radiation modification (SRM) approaches have potential \r to offset warming and ameliorate other climate hazards, but \r their potential to reduce risk or introduce novel risks to people \r and ecosystems is not well understood (high confidence). SRM \r effects on climate hazards are highly dependent on deployment \r scenarios, and substantial residual climate change or overcompensating \r change would occur at regional scales and seasonal time scales (high \r confidence). Due in part to limited research, there is low confidence in \r projected benefits or risks to crop yields, economies, human health or \r ecosystems. Large negative impacts are projected from rapid warming \r for a sudden and sustained termination of SRM in a high-CO2 scenario \r (high confidence). SRM would not stop CO2 from increasing in the \r atmosphere or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued \r anthropogenic emissions (high confidence). There is high agreement\r [...]"


id: d4a5454e003bc2cc159507e39a7a1a69
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"[...] in the literature that for addressing climate change risks SRM is, at \r best, a supplement to achieving sustained net zero or net negative CO2"


id: 491ec1295c06b5fcec48c82ae2147446
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"Anthropogenic climate change poses risks to many human and \r ecological systems. These risks are increasingly visible in our day-to\u0002day lives, including a growing number of disasters that already bear a \r fingerprint of climate change. There is increasing concern about how \r these risks will shape the future of our planet--our ecosystems, our \r well-being and development opportunities. Policymakers are asking \r what is known about the risks, and what can be done about them. \r Many people, especially youth, around the world are calling for urgency, \r ambition and action. Companies are wondering how to manage new \r threats to their bottom line, or how to grasp new opportunities. On top \r of this growing concern about climate change, the coronavirus disease \r 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities to shocks, \r significantly aggravated climate-related risks, and posed new questions \r about how to achieve a green, resilient and inclusive recovery (see \r [...]"


id: 138215eeb95acdf25dcce09f5883f881
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content:
"In 2015, the Paris Agreement established the goal of 'holding the \r increase in the global average temperature to well below 2degC above \r pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature \r increase to 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels'. However, assessment \r of key risks across a range of future warming levels remains a high \r priority for several reasons: (1) understanding risks at higher levels of \r warming can help prepare for them, should efforts to limit warming \r be unsuccessful (UNEP, 2017); (2) understanding risks at higher levels \r can inform the benefits of limiting warming to lower levels; (3) in \r addition, there is continued debate about whether warming limits \r should be at or rather somewhere below 2degC (in particular at 1.5degC); \r and (4) there is a more explicit recognition that key risks can result not \r only from increased warming, but also from changes in the exposure \r and vulnerability of society, and from a lack of ambitious adaptation \r [...]"


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"[...] efforts. Thus, relatively limited warming does not automatically imply \r that key risks will not occur. In assessing key risks, we have applied \r four criteria: magnitude of adverse consequences, likelihood of \r adverse consequences, temporal characteristics of the risk, and ability \r to respond. Of course, this is an aggregated approach to what is \r dangerous; it should be noted that in practice, 'dangerous' will occur \r at a myriad of temperature levels depending on who or what is at risk \r (and their circumstances), geographic scale and time scale."


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content:
"patterns can create challenges for resource availability, exacerbate \r pollution levels (Rode et  al., 2015) and increase exposure to some \r risks. For example, ~10% of the global population live in low-elevation \r coastal zones (in 2000; areas <10 m of elevation) (McGranahan et al., \r 2007; Neumann et  al., 2015), which is expected to increase by 5% \r to 13.6% by 2100 depending on the population scenario (Neumann \r et al., 2015; Jones and O'Neill, 2016). Building assets and infrastructure \r in naturally risk-prone areas are also projected to increase (Magnan \r et al., 2019), which may also lead to environmental degradation that \r can further aggravate risk, such as destruction of wetlands that buffer \r against floods (Schuerch et  al., 2018; Oppenheimer et  al., 2019). \r Demographic trends, coupled with changes in income, can also result \r in increasing demands for land, food, water and energy, and therefore \r in major changes in land use and cover change (Arneth, 2019). The \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] observed and projected population decline in some rural areas also has \r implications for vulnerability and exposure. In addition, demographic \r changes such as ageing may increase vulnerability to some climate \r hazards, including heat stress (Byers et al., 2018; Rohat et al., 2019a; \r Rohat et al., 2019b)."


id: c30dd0d5e87251e3046074c8fd4a4e01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"Poverty contributes to exposure and vulnerability by limiting access \r of individuals, households and communities to economic resources \r and restraining adaptive capacities (e.g., for food and energy supply, \r or for financing adaptation responses) (Hallegatte and Rozenberg, \r 2017). Over the past decades, until the COVID-19 pandemic, global \r poverty rates have declined rapidly. Between 1981 and 2015, the \r share of global population living in extreme poverty (under the \r international poverty line of USD 1.90 d-1) declined from 42% to \r 10%, leaving 736 million people in extreme poverty, concentrated in \r South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 2018). This general \r reduction in poverty across the world is accompanied by a decrease \r in vulnerability to many types of climate change impacts (medium \r confidence). However, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly \r increased extreme poverty by about 100 million people in 2020, with \r [...]"


id: 65533d5befeb831eba1a9df4bd04f2f9
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content:
"[...] disproportionate economic impacts on the poorest, most fragile and \r smaller countries (World Bank, 2021) and significant implications for \r vulnerability to climate change (see also Cross-Chapter Box COVID \r in Chapter 7)."


id: a4be4dcb39a9b4c2e550f3c377376255
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"This section synthesises the observed impacts of changes in climate\u0002related systems (Section  16.2.1) on different natural, human and \r managed systems (outlined in Chapters 2-8) and regions (outlined \r in Chapters 9-15). To stay as specific as possible given the required \r level of aggregation, we decided in favour of a summary along \r specific prominent indicators such as 'crop yields' or 'areas burned \r by wildfires' instead of an assessment across broad categories \r such as 'food production' which could include a broad range of \r measures ranging from climate-induced changes in growing seasons \r to impacts on livestock and fisheries, etc., or 'wildfires' which could \r also cover impacts on the frequency, intensity, timing, or emissions \r and health impacts of wildfires. This decision for specificity certainly \r implies a decision against comprehensiveness. In addition, the level \r of specificity has to be adjusted given the literature basis which is \r [...]"


id: 4b192907051bade31db05590b3ce7117
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"[...] quite broad regarding crop yields but still limited and less harmonised \r regarding indicators when it comes to, for example, conflicts. A \r broader discussion can be found in the sectoral or regional chapters \r that all cover 'observed impacts' individually. Section 16.2.1 provides \r key definitions, followed by recent advances in available methods \r and data for climate impact attribution (Section  16.2.2), and the \r assessment of observed impacts of changes in climate related \r systems (Section 16.2.3). It is important to note that the assessment \r is primarily based on peer-reviewed literature, that is, it is limited to \r the regions and phenomena for which such studies are available. So \r 'no assessment' in a certain region does not imply that the considered \r type of impact did not occur in this region."


id: 77f245be1cc61511d468e81649d829a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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"Climate risks are also strongly related to other inequalities, often \r but not always intersecting with poverty. AR5 found with very high \r confidence that differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from \r multi-dimensional inequalities, often produced by uneven development \r processes. These inequalities relate to geographic location, as well \r as economic, political and socio-cultural aspects, such as wealth, \r education, race/ethnicity, religion, gender, age, class/caste, disability \r and health status (Oppenheimer et al., 2014). Since AR5, a number of \r studies have confirmed and refined this assessment, especially also \r regarding socioeconomic inequality and poverty (Hallegatte et  al., \r 2016; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; Pelling and Garschagen, 2019; \r Hallegatte et al., 2020). Poor people more often live in exposed areas \r such as wastelands or riverbanks (Garschagen and Romero-Lankao, \r 2015; Winsemius et al., 2018). Also, poor people lose more of their total \r [...]"


id: a322302a7871ebd8e8abf831578b9159
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] wealth to climatic hazards, receive less post-shock support from their \r often-times equally poor social networks, and are often not covered by \r social protection schemes (Leichenko and Silva, 2014; Hallegatte et al., \r 2016). Countries with high inequality tend to have above-average \r levels of exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards (BEH UNU-EHS, \r 2016). Many socioeconomic models used in climate research have \r been found to have a limited ability to capture and represent the poor \r at a larger scale (Rao et  al., 2019; Rufat et  al., 2019). However, an \r analysis of 92 countries found that relative income losses and other \r climate change impacts were disproportionately high among the \r poorest (Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017, see Section 16.2.6). There \r have also been advances in detecting and attributing the impacts of \r climate change and vulnerability at household scale and specifically \r on women's agency and adaptive capacity (Rao et  al., 2019). The \r [...]"


id: 963d65f9d66c05fcc69e23222e708cb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] distribution of impacts and responses (adaptation and mitigation) \r affects inequality, not just between countries but also within countries \r (e.g., Tol, 2020) and between different people within societies. \r Distribution has so far largely been thought of in a geographical sense, \r but identifying those most at risk requires an additional focus on the \r social distribution of impacts, responses, and resilience, as influenced \r for instance by differential social protection coverage (Tenzing, 2020).\r Many climate responses interact with all of these global risk drivers. \r Some raise additional equity concerns about marginalising those most \r vulnerable and exacerbating social conflicts (Oppenheimer et  al., \r 2019), leading to wider questions about the governance of climate \r risks (and impacts) across scales. Hence, our assessment of impacts, \r responses and risks is complemented by the assessment of governance \r [...]"


id: 43983158487e310fc30d180a1e395cb9
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content:
"[...] and the enabling environment for risk management in Chapter 17, and \r of climate resilient development in Chapter 18."


id: dce389b35b9d59997042696daad6cf80
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content:
"compared to contributions from management changes?' (e.g., Ray et al., \r 2015; Muller et al., 2017) and 'Can weather fluctuations explain part \r of the observed variability in annual national economic growth rates?' \r (e.g., Burke et al., 2015). Identification of weather sensitivity may also \r address the effects of individual climate extremes, for example asking, \r 'Was the observed outbreak of cholera triggered by an associated flood \r event?' (e.g., Rinaldo et al., 2012; Moore et al., 2017b). It is important \r to note that sensitivity could be described in diverse ways and that, for \r example, the fraction of the observed variability in a system explained by \r weather variability differs from the strength of the systems' response to \r a specific change in a weather variable. Nevertheless, all these different \r measures are integrated in the 'identification of weather sensitivity' \r assessment, where 'sensitivity' should not be considered a quantitative \r [...]"


id: c4f58f376a4d9fa7a37cd093d61d111b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"In line with the AR5 definition, 'changes in climate-related systems' \r here refer to any long-term trend, irrespective of the underlying \r causes; thus, an observed impact is not necessarily an observed \r impact of anthropogenic climate forcing. For example, in this section, \r sea level rise is defined as relative sea level rise measured against \r a land-based reference frame (tide gauge measurements), meaning \r that it is driven not only by thermal expansion and loss of land ice \r influenced by anthropogenic climate forcing, but also by vertical land \r movements. As attribution of coastal damages to sea level rise does not \r distinguish between these components, it does not imply attribution \r to anthropogenic forcing. Where the literature does allow attribution \r of changes in natural, human or managed systems to anthropogenic \r climate forcing ('joint attribution', Rosenzweig et  al., 2007), this is \r highlighted in the assessment. Often the attribution of changes in \r [...]"


id: f3c65d3e8d8c1871a5803585208c86ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"[...] the natural, human or managed systems to anthropogenic forcing can \r be done in a two-step approach where (i) an observed change in a \r climate-related system is attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing \r ('climate attribution') and (ii) changes in natural, human or managed \r systems are attributed to this change in the climate-related system \r ('impact attribution')."


id: e01cd3b3c873d2a50c49867c3614205d
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content:
"For climate attribution, the main challenge is the separation of externally \r human forced changes in the climate-related systems from their internal \r variability, while for impact attribution it often is the separation of \r the effects of other external forcings (i.e., direct human influences or \r natural disturbances) from the impacts of the changes in the climate\u0002related systems. Direct influences not related to changes in the climate\u0002related systems could, for example, be pollution and land use changes \r amplifying biodiversity losses, intensification of fishing reducing fish \r stocks, and increasing protection reducing losses due to river floods. \r The direct human or natural influences may counter the impacts of \r climate change (e.g., climate change may have reduced flood hazards, \r but exposure may have increased as people have moved to flood-prone \r areas, resulting in no change in observed damages). Given the definition \r [...]"


id: db8aee9b8a0cf01d2969bfba415961bb
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content:
"[...] of impact attribution, this means that there may be an observed impact \r of climate change without the detection of a change in the natural, \r human or managed system. This is different from 'climate attribution', \r where detection and attribution usually are consecutive steps."


id: a8ad49a50d6ae9a40959593a4f4be2f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26883
content:
"By definition, the counterfactual baseline required for impact \r attribution cannot be observed. However, it may be approximated by \r impact model simulations forced by a stationary climate, for example \r derived by de-trending the observed climate (Diffenbaugh et al., 2017; \r Mengel et al., 2021), while other relevant drivers (e.g., land use changes \r or application of pesticides) of changes in the system of interest (e.g., a \r bird population) evolve according to historical conditions. To attribute \r to anthropogenic climate forcing, the anthropogenic trends in climate \r are estimated from a range of different climate models and subtracted \r from the observed climate (e.g., Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016, for \r changes in the extent of forest fires or Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019, \r for effects on economic inequality) or the 'no anthropogenic climate \r forcing' baseline is directly derived from a large ensemble of climate \r [...]"


id: 9bf407fd7f174900e304580eeaef4c59
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content:
"[...] model simulations not accounting for anthropogenic forcings (e.g., \r Kirchmeier-Young et al.., 2019b, for the extent of forest fires). In any \r case, it has to be demonstrated that the applied impact models are \r able to explain the observed changes in natural, human or managed \r systems by, for example, reproducing the observations when forced \r by observed changes in climate-related systems and other relevant \r drivers."


id: 2ea7a6dff26367ee01faa5ff04d3e768
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"To date, explicit accounting for direct human or natural influences \r is often hampered by an incomplete understanding of the processes \r and limited observational data. There are, however, first studies \r demonstrating the potential of detailed process-based or empirical \r modelling that explicitly accounts for known variations in direct human \r or natural drivers and separate their effects from the ones induced \r by changes in the climate-related systems. Examples are Butler et al. \r (2018) for the separation of growing season adjustments from within \r growing season climate effects on US crop yields; Wang and Hijmans \r (2019) separating effects of shifts in land use from climate effects; \r Jongman et al. (2015); Formetta and Feyen (2019) and Tanoue et al. \r (2016) for the separation of changes in exposure and vulnerability \r from climate effects on river floods; Kirchmeier-Young et al. (2019b) \r for wildfire attribution; and Venter et  al. (2018) for the attribution \r [...]"


id: cc5a680119c00724dbe8fe63ce0be062
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content:
"The collapse or transformation of ecosystems is one of the most \r abrupt potential tipping points associated with climate change. \r Climate change has started to induce such tipping points, with the \r first examples including mass mortality in coral reef ecosystems (e.g., \r Donner et al., 2017; Hughes et al., 2018; Hughes et al., 2019) (high \r confidence), and changes in vegetation cover triggered by wildfires \r with climate change suppressing the recovery of the former cover \r (Tepley et al., 2017; Davis et al., 2019) (low confidence because of the \r still limited number of studies). Another example of an abrupt change \r in an ecosystem triggered by a climate extreme is the shift from \r kelp- to urchin-dominated communities along parts of the Western \r North America coast (Rogers-Bennett and Catton, 2019; McPherson \r et  al., 2021, see 'Marine ecosystems--Kelp forest', Table  SM16.22). \r The loss of kelp forests was induced by a marine heatwave where \r [...]"


id: 62f0df52f8106d7480b7eaa0457be4ca
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"[...] anthropogenic climate forcing has been shown to have increased the \r probability for an event of that duration by at least a factor of 33 \r (Laufkotter et al., 2020). Many terrestrial ecosystems on all continents \r show evidence of significant structural transformation, including \r woody thickening and 'greening' in more water-limited ecosystems, \r with a significant role played by rising atmospheric CO2 fertilisation in \r these trends (high confidence) (Fang et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017; \r Burrell et al., 2020). Climate change is identified as a major driver of \r increases in burned areas in the Western USA (high confidence, see \r 'Terrestrial ecosystems--Burned areas', Table SM16.22)."


id: ca23c644e5aa8636d272af68def1934a
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content:
"Tropical cyclone activity', Table  SM16.21). However, anthropogenic \r climate forcing has become the dominant driver of sea level rise (high \r confidence) (see 'Coastal systems--Mean and extreme sea levels', \r Table SM16.21) and has increased the risk of coastal flooding, including \r inundation induced by tropical cyclones. In addition, anthropogenic \r climate forcing has increased the amount of rainfall associated with \r tropical cyclones (high confidence) (Risser and Wehner, 2017; Van \r Oldenborgh et  al., 2017; Wang et  al., 2018, for Hurricane Harvey in \r 2017; Patricola and Wehner, 2018, for hurricane Katrina in 2005, Irma \r in 2017 and Maria in 2017, see 'Atmosphere--Heavy precipitation', \r Table SM16.21). Assuming that the extreme rainfall is a major driver \r of the total damages induced by the tropical cyclone, the contribution \r of anthropogenic climate forcing to the occurrence probability of the \r observed rainfall (fraction of attributable risk) can also be considered \r [...]"


id: 94bebf4512d200f1099518a4b8e826fb
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content:
"[...] the fraction of attributable risk of the hurricane-induced damages or \r fatalities (Frame et al., 2020; Clarke et al., 2021, see 'Coastal systems--\r Damages', Table SM16.22). However, first studies do not only quantify \r the change in occurrence probabilities but translate the actual change \r in climate-related systems into the additional area affected by flooding \r in a process-based way (Strauss et  al., 2021 for the contribution of \r anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR) to damages induced by Hurricane \r Sandy; Wehner and Sampson, 2021 for the contribution increased \r precipitation to damages induced by Hurricane Harvey) and attribute \r a considerable part of the observed damage to anthropogenic climate \r forcing. In addition, disruption of local economic activity in Annapolis, \r Maryland and loss of areas and settlements in Micronesia and Solomon \r Islands have been attributed to relative SLR (Nunn et al., 2017; Albert \r [...]"


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"[...] et al., 2018; Hino et al., 2019), while permafrost thawing and sea ice \r retreat are additional drivers of observed coastal damages in Alaska \r (Albert et al., 2016; Smith and Sattineni, 2016; Fang et al., 2017)."


id: 75ccb86ca96646acb655b0048a8ea119
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content:
"Water Availability\r Observed trends in high river flows strongly vary across regions but \r also with the considered time period (Gudmundsson et  al., 2019; \r Gudmundsson et al., 2021) as influenced by climate oscillations such \r as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Ward et al., 2014). On the global \r scale, the spatial pattern of observed trends is largely explained by \r observed changes in climate conditions as demonstrated by multi\u0002model hydrological simulations forced by observed weather, while the \r considered direct human influences play only a minor role on global \r scale (Gudmundsson et  al., 2021, see 'Water distribution--Flood \r induced economic damages', Table SM16.22). The annual total number \r of reported fatalities from flooding shows a positive trend (1.5% yr-1\r from 1960 to 2013, Tanoue et al., 2016) which appears to be primarily \r driven by changes in exposure dampened by a reduction in vulnerability, \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] while climate-induced increases in affected areas show only a weak \r positive trend on the global scale. However, the signal of climate change \r in flood-induced fatalities may be lost in the regional aggregation, \r where effects of increasing and decreasing hazards may cancel out. Thus, \r a climate-driven increase in flood-induced damages becomes detectable \r in continental subregions with increasing discharge, while the signal \r of climate change may not be detectable without disaggregation \r (Sauer et  al., 2021, see 'Water distribution--Flood induced economic \r damages', Table  SM16.22). Compared with river floods, the analysis \r of impacts of long-term changes in the climate-related systems on the \r reduction in water availability is much more fragmented and reduced to \r individual case studies regarding associated societal impacts (see 'Water \r distribution--Reductions in water availability + induced damages and \r [...]"


id: 51b7b1efcec67cebe969849b93c9f155
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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vector_id: 11663
content:
"[...] fatalities', Table SM16.22). At the same time, weather fluctuations have \r led to reductions in water availability with severe societal consequences \r and high numbers of drought-induced fatalities and damages in \r particular in Africa and Asia (see 'Water distribution--Reductions in \r water availability + induced damages and fatalities', Table  SM16.23) \r and impacts on malnutrition (see 'Food system--Malnutrition', \r Table SM16.23). Although anthropogenic climate forcing has increased \r droughts' intensity or probability in many regions of the world (medium \r confidence), (see 'Atmosphere--Droughts', Table SM16.21) the existing \r knowledge has not yet been systematically linked to attribute long\u0002term trends in malnutrition, fatalities and damages induced by reduced \r water availability to anthropogenic climate forcing or long-term climate \r change. For impacts of individual attributable drought events, see \r [...]"


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"[...] Table  4.5 and 'Water distribution--Reductions in water availability + \r induced damages and fatalities', Table SM16.23."


id: 4baa54995982e33b87a633f47c631f70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10571
content:
"Crop yields respond to weather variations but also to increasing \r atmospheric CO2, changes in management (e.g., fertilizer input, changes \r in varieties), diseases and pests. However, the weather signal is clearly \r detectable in national and subnational annual yield statistics in main \r production regions (see 'Food system--Crop yields', Table  SM16.23). \r Over the last decades, crop yields have increased nearly everywhere \r mainly due to technological progress (e.g., Lobell and Field, 2007 \r [global]; Butler et al., 2018 [USA]; Hoffman et al., 2018 [Sub-Saharan \r Africa]; Agnolucci and De Lipsis, 2019 [Europe]), with only minor areas \r not experiencing improvements in maize, wheat, rice and soy yields. \r However, meanwhile, stagnation or decline in yields is also observed in \r parts of the harvested areas (high confidence) (~20-40% of harvested \r areas of maize, wheat, rice and soy with wheat being most affected) (Ray \r [...]"


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"[...] et al., 2012; Iizumi et al., 2018). Evidence on the contribution of climate \r change to recent trends is still limited (see 'Food system--Crop yields', \r Table SM16.22). Current global-scale process-based simulations forced \r by simulated historical and pre-industrial climate lack an evaluation \r to what degree simulations reproduce observed yields (Iizumi et  al., \r 2018). Global-scale empirical approaches do not explicitly account for \r extreme weather events but growing season average temperatures \r and precipitation (e.g., Lobell et al., 2011; Ray et al., 2019). In addition, \r studies are constrained by only fragmented information about changes \r in agricultural management such as growing season adjustments. Some \r of these limitations have been overcome in regional studies indicating a "


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
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content:
"No conclusive evidence emerges regarding recent temporal trends in \r excess mortality attributable to cold exposure (Vicedo-Cabrera et  al., \r 2018b). Quantitative detection and attribution studies of temperature\u0002related mortality are still rare. One study (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021), \r using data from 43 countries, found that 37% (range 20.5-76.3%) of \r average warm-season heat-related mortality during recent decades can \r be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (medium confidence, \r see 'Other societal impacts--Heat-related mortality', Table  SM16.22). \r Studying excess mortality associated with past heatwaves, such as \r the 2003 or 2018 events in Europe, even higher proportions of deaths \r attributable to anthropogenic climate change have been reported for \r France and the UK (Mitchell et  al., 2016; Clarke et  al., 2021). Formal \r [...]"


id: c3330391d0bb07c6b0f9fb53bb6c38f
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content:
"[...] attribution studies encompassing cold-related mortality are quasi non\u0002existent. The very few studies from Europe and Australia (Christidis et al., \r 2010; Astrom et al., 2013; Bennett et al., 2014) find weak impacts of \r climate change on cold-associated excess mortality, with contradictory \r outcomes both towards higher and lower risks (low confidence, see \r 'Other societal impacts--Heat-related mortality', Table SM16.22)."


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vector_id: 40563
content:
"Due to complex interactions with socioeconomic conditions, climate\u0002induced trends in crop yields and production do not directly transmit \r to crop prices, availability of food, or nutrition status. This complexity, \r in addition to the limited availability of long-term data, has so far \r impeded the detection and attribution of a long-term impact of climate \r change on associated food security indicators. However, in a few cases, \r observed crop prices (e.g., domestic grain price in Russia and Africa, \r Gotz et  al., 2016; Mawejje, 2016; Baffes et  al., 2019) are shown to \r be sensitive to fluctuations in local weather through its impact on \r production (see 'Food system--Food prices', Table  SM16.23). In \r addition, there is growing evidence that climate extremes (in particular, \r droughts) have led to malnutrition (in particular, stunting of children) \r in the historical period (medium confidence, see 'Food system--\r [...]"


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"[...] Malnutrition', Table SM16.23) but without an attribution of changes to \r long-term climate change."


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"Infectious diseases with water-associated transmission pathways \r constitute a large burden of disease globally. Since the AR5, the \r evidence has strengthened that waterborne diseases, and especially \r gastrointestinal infections, are highly to moderately sensitive to weather \r variability (medium confidence, see 'Water distribution--Waterborne \r diseases', Table SM16.23). Increased temperature and high precipitation, \r with associated flooding events, have been shown to generally increase \r the risk of diarrhoeal diseases. There are, however, a number of studies \r that describe important exceptions and modifications to this general \r observation. While high temperatures favour bacterial diarrhoeal \r diseases, virally transmitted diarrhoea is on the contrary mostly \r associated with low temperatures (Carlton et  al., 2016; Chua et  al., \r 2021). Socioeconomic determinants, such as the existence of single\u0002household water supplies (Herrador et  al., 2015) or combined sewer \r [...]"


id: 4c891542b0ca07107b3cbabe284e794a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10725
content:
"[...] overflows (Jagai et  al., 2017), have been shown to critically increase \r the risk of gastrointestinal infections linked to heavy rainfall in high\u0002income countries. Also, for both low- and high-income countries it has \r been found that gastrointestinal diseases increase following a heavy \r rainfall event only if preceded by a dry period (Carlton et al., 2014; Setty \r et al., 2018). Yet, so far there is no consistent evidence on the role of \r droughts in favouring waterborne disease transmission (Levy et  al., \r 2016). As exemplified by the large cholera outbreak following the 2010 \r earthquake in Haiti, the existence of functioning sanitation systems is \r critical for preventing waterborne disease outbreaks, while climatic \r factors (especially rainfall) are important in driving the transmission \r dynamics once the outbreak has started (Rinaldo et  al., 2012). Other \r socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility and water management \r [...]"


id: e2ae784d842c1bc15b752b2d2d621754
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37182
content:
"[...] projects (e.g., dam constructions), also modify the strength of the \r association between climatic factors and waterborne diseases, as shown \r by recent studies in Africa (Perez-Saez et al., 2015; Finger et al., 2016)."


id: b0842042379387c93240109dec14e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28290
content:
"There is nearly universal evidence that non-optimal ambient temperatures \r increase mortality (high confidence), with notable heterogeneity only in \r the shape of the temperature-mortality relationship across geographical \r regions but often sharply growing relative risks at the outer 5% of the \r local historical temperature distributions (Gasparrini et al., 2015; Guo \r et al., 2018; Carleton et al., 2020; Zhao et al., 2021; see 'Other societal \r impacts--Heat-related mortality', Table SM16.23). Significant advances \r have been made since AR5 regarding the analysis of temperature\u0002related excess mortality in previously under-researched regions, such \r as developing countries and (sub)tropical climates (e.g South-East Asia: \r Dang et al., 2016; Ingole et al., 2017; Mazdiyasni et al., 2017; South Africa: \r Wichmann, 2017, Scovronick et  al., 2018; the Middle East: Alahmad \r et al., 2019, Gholampour et al., 2019; and Latin America: Peres et al., \r [...]"


id: 7a23d5b8b603a30055062cfdd2199eaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18690
content:
"[...] 2020). Progress has also been made with regard to temporal changes \r in temperature-related excess mortality and underlying population \r vulnerability over time. Heat-attributable mortality fractions have \r declined over time in most countries owing to general improvements \r in health care systems, increasing prevalence of residential air \r conditioning, and behavioural changes. These factors, which determine \r the susceptibility of the population to heat, have predominated over the \r influence of temperature change (see 'Other societal impacts--Heat\u0002related mortality', Table  SM16.22, De'Donato et  al., 2015; Arbuthnott \r et al., 2016; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018a). Important exceptions exist, \r for example, where unprecedented heatwaves have occurred recently. "


id: b4eb356693d10c49fc47b8b94b628094
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29073
content:
"Since the AR5, there has been significant progress regarding the \r identification of economic responses to weather fluctuations: \r evidence has increased that extreme weather events such as tropical \r cyclones, droughts, and severe fluvial floods have not only caused \r substantial immediate direct economic damage (high confidence, see \r 'Coastal Systems--Damages, Table  SM16.23, 'Water distribution--\r Reductions in water availability + induced damages and fatalities', \r Table  SM16.23, and 'Water distribution--Flood-induced economic \r damages', Table SM16.22) but have also reduced economic growth \r in the short term (year of, and year after event) (Strobl, 2011; Strobl, \r 2012; Fomby et al., 2013; Felbermayr and Groschl, 2014, Loyaza et al. \r 2012) (high confidence) as well as in the long term (up to 10-15 years \r after event) (medium confidence) (Hsiang and Jina, 2014; Berlemann \r and Wenzel, 2016; Berlemann and Wenzel, 2018; Krichene et al., 2020; \r [...]"


id: 8bc09b49f1812866e52dd398430b0645
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:02
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21756
content:
"[...] Tanoue et  al., 2020, see 'Other societal impacts--Macroeconomic \r output', Table SM16.23). Short- and long-term reductions of economic \r growth by extreme weather events affect both developing and \r industrialised countries, but have been shown to be more severe \r in developing than in industrialised economies, thereby increasing \r inequality between countries (high confidence, see 'Other societal \r impacts--Between-country inequality', Table  SM16.23). Further, \r extreme weather events have increased within-country inequality \r since poorer people are more exposed and suffer relatively higher \r well-being losses than richer parts of the population (medium \r confidence, see 'Other societal impacts--Within-country inequality', \r Table  SM16.23). Going beyond extreme weather events, economic \r production depends nonlinearly on temperature fluctuations: below \r a certain threshold temperature, economic production increases \r [...]"


id: 209f20705bd1d20e6b90fc491a8f2285
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2965
content:
"[...] with temperature, whereas it decreases above a certain threshold \r temperature (high confidence) (Burke et al., 2015; Pretis et al., 2018; \r Kalkuhl and Wenz, 2020; Kotz et al., 2021)."


id: 92c6b2195808389ed857dc39ed0e147
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23038
content:
"Vector-borne diseases constitute a large burden of infectious diseases \r worldwide and are highly sensitive to fluctuations of weather conditions \r including extreme events. Thus, both extreme rainfall and droughts have \r increased infections (high confidence, see 'Other societal impacts--\r Vector-borne diseases', Table  SM16.23). For example, in Sudan, \r anomalous high rainfall increased Anopheles mosquito breeding sites, \r leading to malaria outbreaks (Elsanousi et al., 2018), while in Barbados \r and Brazil, drought conditions in urban areas have enhanced dengue \r incidence due to changes in water storage behaviour creating breeding \r sites for Aedes mosquitoes around human dwellings (Lowe et al., 2018; \r Lowe et al., 2021) . In the Caribbean and Pacific Island nations, weather \r extremes, such as storms and flooding, have led to outbreaks of dengue \r due to disruption to water and sanitation services, leading to increased \r [...]"


id: 2a3a617136116ad2c1e334904e53d88c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4642
content:
"[...] exposure to Aedes mosquito breeding sites (Descloux et al., 2012; Sharp \r et al., 2014; Uwishema et al., 2021). In South and Central America, and \r Asia, dengue incidence has been shown to be sensitive to variations in \r temperature and the monsoon season in addition to variations induced \r by urbanisation and population mobility (high confidence [South \r and Central America]; medium confidence [Asia]; see 'Other societal \r impacts--Vector-borne diseases', Table SM16.23)."


id: b5ea7ddf5ded13e0e00c0443a730e1a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29227
content:
"The attribution of changes in disease incidence to long-term climate \r change is often limited by relatively short reporting periods often \r only covering 10-15 years. Most studies then attribute trends in the \r occurrence of vector-borne diseases to the trends in climate across \r the same observational period and do not refer to an early 'no climate \r change' baseline climate. This means that they also capture trends \r induced by longerterm climate oscillations. Nevertheless, we list them \r in Table  SM16.22 on 'impact attribution' to clearly distinguish them \r from the analysis of interannual fluctuations. The overall consistency of \r their findings across regions and time windows indicates that climate \r change is an important driver of the observed latitudinal or altitudinal \r range expansions of vector-borne diseases into previously colder areas \r [...]"


id: 8930227c661a350720ac1d01913558b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21303
content:
"[...] (medium to high confidence, see 'Other societal impacts--Vector\u0002borne diseases', Table SM16.22). In highland areas of Africa and South \r America, epidemic outbreaks of malaria have become more frequent \r due to warming trends that allow Anopheles mosquitoes to persist at \r higher elevations (Pascual et al., 2006; Siraj et al., 2014). In the USA, \r ticks that transmit Lyme disease have expanded their range northwards \r because of warmer temperatures (high confidence; Kugeler et al., 2015; \r McPherson et al., 2017; Lin et al., 2019; Couper et al., 2020; see 'Other \r societal impacts--Vector-borne diseases', Table SM16.22). In Southern \r Europe, climate suitability for Aedes mosquitoes, which transmit dengue \r and chikungunya, and Culex mosquitoes, which transmit West Nile \r virus, has also increased and contributed to unprecedented outbreaks \r including the 2018 West Nile fever outbreak (medium confidence, "


id: 6af5a6a9abeb25582eb8797cc1bd9a62
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16106
content:
"So far, there are few individual studies attributing observed economic \r damages to long-term climate change except for damages induced \r by river flooding, droughts and tropical cyclones (see 'Coastal \r systems--Damages', 'Water distribution--Flood-induced damages', \r and 'Water distribution--Reduction in water availability + induced \r damages and fatalities', Table  SM16.22). In addition, the empirical \r findings on the sensitivity of macroeconomic development to weather \r fluctuations and extreme weather events have been used to estimate \r the cumulative effect of historical warming on long-term economic \r development (see 'Other societal impacts--Macroeconomic output', \r Table SM16.22): anthropogenic climate change is estimated to have \r reduced gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the last 50 years, \r with substantially larger negative effects on developing countries \r and in some cases positive effects on colder industrialised countries \r [...]"


id: fcedf32081cef960324a1d8417add856
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41860
content:
"[...] (low confidence) (Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019). Globally, between\u0002country inequality has decreased over the last 50  years. Climate \r change is estimated to have substantially slowed down this trend, that \r is, increased inequality compared with a counterfactual no-climate\u0002change baseline (low confidence) (Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019). On \r a regional level, decreasing rainfall trends in Sub-Saharan Africa may "


id: 18af4c6f1c7de099b0c8bc692cb738c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1557
content:
"There are few studies directly attributing changes in conflict risk to \r climate change in the modern era (van Weezel, 2020), preventing a \r confident assessment of the effect of long-term changes in the climate\u0002related systems on armed conflict (see 'Other societal impacts--Social \r conflict', Table  SM16.22). However, a sizeable literature links the \r prevalence of armed conflict within countries to within- and between\u0002year variations in rainfall, temperature or drought exposure, often via \r reduced-form econometric analysis or statistical models that control \r for important non-climatic factors, such as agricultural dependence, \r level of economic development, state capacity and ethnopolitical \r marginalisation (see 'Other societal impacts--Social conflict', \r Table SM16.23). Overall, there is more consistent evidence that climate \r variability has influenced low-intensity organised violence than major \r civil wars (Detges, 2017; Nordkvelle et al., 2017; Linke et al., 2018). \r [...]"


id: de9b4256e14aa082c3d70fedc6d07b3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36426
content:
"[...] Likewise, there is more consistent evidence that climate variability \r has affected dynamics of conflict, such as continuation, severity and \r frequency of violent conflict events, than the likelihood of initial \r conflict outbreak (Yeeles, 2015; Eastin, 2016; Von Uexkull et al., 2016, \r Section 7.2.7). Moreover, research suggests with medium confidence\r (medium evidence, medium agreement) that weather effects on \r armed conflict have been most prominent in contexts marked by a \r large population, low socioeconomic development, high political \r marginalisation and high agricultural dependence (Theisen, 2017; \r Koubi, 2019; Buhaug et al., 2020; Ide et al., 2020)."


id: 7a343f114ec89ca183ff1663650e5aee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18696
content:
"However, new evidence has emerged since the AR5 that further \r documents widespread effects of weather fluctuations and extreme \r events on migration (see 'Other societal impacts--Displacement \r and migration', Table  SM16.23). Numerous studies find significant \r links between temperature or precipitation anomalies, or extreme \r weather events such as storms or floods, and internal as well as \r international migration (Coniglio and Pesce, 2015; Cattaneo and Peri, \r 2016; Nawrotzki and DeWaard, 2016; Beine and Parsons, 2017, for \r international migration; and IDMC, 2019, for internal displacement). \r Internal displacement of millions of people every year is triggered by \r natural hazards, mainly floods and storms (IDMC, 2019). The effects of \r weather fluctuations and extremes on migration are considered more \r important for temporary mobility and displacement than permanent \r migration, and more influential on short-distance movement, including \r [...]"


id: d676a92c299f852f838743b84e9d1461
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35037
content:
"[...] urbanisation, than international migration (McLeman, 2014; Hauer \r et al., 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2020, Section 7.2.6). Importantly, these \r links are conditional on the socioeconomic situation in the origin; for \r example, poor populations may be 'trapped' and not able to migrate in \r the face of adverse climate or weather conditions (Black et al., 2013; \r Adams, 2016). Many studies have also explored the channels through \r which climate or weather influence migration, and have identified \r incomes in the agricultural sector as one of the main channels \r (Nawrotzki et al., 2015; Viswanathan and Kavi Kumar, 2015; Cai et al., \r 2016a). In particular, declines in agricultural incomes and employment \r due to changed weather variability may foster increased rural-urban \r movement, and the resulting pressures on urban wages in turn foster \r international migration (Marchiori et  al., 2012; Maurel and Tuccio, \r 2016). Another possible but controversial channel is violent conflict, \r [...]"


id: 5d562fc15e2ea4c3c87f5890b2b8de59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13710
content:
"[...] which may be fostered (though not exclusively caused) by adverse \r climate conditions such as drought, and in turn lead to people seeking \r refugee status, although evidence of such an indirect effect is weak \r (Brzoska and Frohlich, 2016; Abel et al., 2019; Schutte et al., 2021)."


id: b7bbd67d684206a26c6bed9a4478112d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29545
content:
"Some studies also seek to evaluate potential indirect links between \r climate and weather anomalies and prevalence of armed conflict via \r food price shocks or forced migration. While there is robust evidence\r that the likelihood of social unrest in the developing world generally \r increases in response to rapid growth in food prices (Bellemare, 2015; \r Rudolfsen, 2018), the magnitude of the climate effect on unrest via \r food prices is less well established (Martin-Shields and Stojetz, 2019). \r Similarly, research shows with high confidence that climate variability \r and extremes have affected human mobility (see 'Other societal \r impacts--Displacement and migration', Table SM16.23), but there is \r low agreement and limited evidence that weather-induced migration \r has increased the likelihood of armed conflict (Section 7.2.7, Brzoska \r and Frohlich, 2016; Kelley et al., 2017; Selby et al., 2017; Abel, 2019). \r Research on weather-related effects on interstate security generally \r [...]"


id: c15a4f7e78b809482411b35f9ab394d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31318
content:
"[...] concludes that periods of transboundary water scarcity are more \r likely to facilitate increased international cooperation than conflict \r (Bernauer and Bohmelt, 2020)."


id: 4d6a34195a09a1a5d7c25b15a10ff33b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10897
content:
"Separating between climatic and non-climatic factors in impact attribution is often challenging, as highlighted by the debate surrounding \r the causes of the Syrian civil war. During the years 2006-2010, the Fertile Crescent region in Eastern Mediterranean and Western Asia \r was hit by the worst drought on meteorological record, compounding a consistent drying of the region over the past half century (Trigo \r et al., 2010; Hoerling et al., 2012; Mathbout et al., 2018, SR15 BOX 3.2 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018a)). The magnitude of the multi-year \r drought is estimated to have become two to three times more likely as a result of increased CO2 forcing (Kelley et al., 2015). The drought \r had a devastating impact on agricultural production in the northeast of Syria. In 2007-2008 alone, average crop yields dropped by 32% \r in irrigated areas and as much as 79% in rain-fed areas (De Chatel, 2014), and herders in the northeast lost around 85% of their livestock \r [...]"


id: 12e147a32be5a253fa4f10d67cd795e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 526
content:
"[...] (Werrell et al., 2015). Successive years with little or no income eventually forced people to leave their farms in great numbers and seek \r employment in less affected parts of the country, adding to existing pressures on housing, labour market and public goods provision \r (Gleick, 2014; Kelley et al., 2015). In March 2011, by which time the 'Arab Spring' uprisings had gained momentum and spread across much \r of the region, anti-regime protests broke out in Syria, first in the southern city of Dara'a and then in Damascus and throughout the country."


id: b36bac5722ac8e26fee1ea2d142f447f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28806
content:
"In addition, the protesters' demands centred around contentious political rather than economic issues, including release of political \r prisoners, ending of torture and indiscriminate violence by security forces, and abolishment of the near 50-year-old state of emergency \r (Selby et al., 2017; Ash and Obradovich, 2020). The mobilisation in Syria in the spring of 2011 also made explicit references to events \r across the Middle East and North African region. Analyses of regional and social media and networks show a high level of interaction \r across the Arab world, and the initial Syrian uprising adopted a mobilisation model and rhetorical frames similar to those developed in \r Tunisia and Egypt (Leenders, 2013; 2014). However, the Syrian uprising stands out in how it was met with overwhelming violent force by \r the police and security forces, which changed the character of the resistance and opened up for militarisation of non-state actors that \r [...]"


id: bb6b5fad901fb3651e28f0d415084c53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30192
content:
"There is growing evidence of shifts in species distributions and \r ecosystem structure and functioning in response to climate change \r (Chapter 2). While many species are increasingly responding to climate \r change, there is limited evidence that these responses will be fully \r adaptive, and for many species the rate of response appears insufficient \r to keep pace with the rate of climate change under mid- and high-range \r emissions scenarios (medium confidence). There is relatively limited, \r but growing, empirical data to document adaptation of natural systems \r in the absence of human interventions. For example, Scheffers et al. \r (2016) reviewed climate responses across diverse species, reporting \r widespread and extensive observed changes in organisms (genetics, \r physiology, morphology), populations (phenology, abundance and \r dynamics), species (distributions) and ecosystems. A systematic review \r by Franks et al. (2014) synthesised evidence from 38 empirical studies \r [...]"


id: 5cbef1bb6a8e693b539f7318a2bba72e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13577
content:
"[...] of changes in terrestrial plant populations, finding evidence to support \r a mix of plastic and evolutionary responses. Boutin and Lane (2014) \r similarly reviewed adaptive responses in mammals, finding most \r species' responses to be due to phenotypic plasticity. Charmantier \r and Gienapp (2014) reviewed responses to climate change among \r birds, finding emerging evidence that birds from a range of taxa show \r advancement in their timing of migration and breeding in response \r to warming. Aragao et  al. (2018) reviewed adaptation responses in \r marine systems, including 12  studies of live marine mammals. They \r observed widespread evidence of shifting distributions and timing of \r biological events (Chapter 2, Chapter 3, and Cross-Chapter Paper 1)."


id: a3fad5bd0a324bed319af64b418d7eb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26038
content:
"Some ecosystems and species' responses may be insufficient to \r keep pace with rates of climate change. It is difficult to distinguish \r whether adaptations are due to genotypic change or to phenotypic \r plasticity. Long-term natural adaptations will require the former, but \r the latter may provide short-term coping mechanisms to 'buy time' \r to respond to climate changes or lay foundations for evolutionary \r adaptation. There is mixed evidence regarding evolutionary versus \r plastic responses, with relatively limited evidence of longer-term \r evolutionary responses of species that can be associated with climate \r change. Similarly, it is difficult to assess whether responses are indeed \r potentially adaptive (e.g., coping, shifting, migrating) or simply \r reflective of impacts (e.g., stress, damage). Among mammal responses \r reviewed by Boutin and Lane (2014), for example, only 4 of 12 studies \r found some evidence that responses were adaptive. Even where \r [...]"


id: 9c08f6f57c0b3b5894c95cfca798bc73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24703
content:
"[...] adaptive responses are occurring, they may not be sufficient to keep \r pace with the rate of climate change. found, for example, that, among \r the 12 studies in their review that directly assessed the sufficiency of \r responses to keep pace with the rate of climate change, 8 concluded \r that responses would be insufficient to avert extinction."


id: bf5b756346f4a3ab4a329875143c8173
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30934
content:
"Adaptation-related responses are frequently motivated by a \r combination of climatic and non-climatic drivers, and interact with \r other transitions to affect risk. For societal responses, it is difficult to \r say whether they are triggered by observed or anticipated changes in \r climate, by non-climatic drivers, or by a combination of all three. In the \r case of observed impacts, assessment typically focuses on detection \r and attribution vis a vis a counterfactual of no climate change. \r While there has been some effort to attribute reduced climate risk to \r adaptation-related responses (Toloo et al., 2013a; Toloo et al., 2013b; \r Hess et al., 2018; Weinberger et al., 2018), in many cases this has not \r been feasible given difficulties in defining adaptation and empirically \r disentangling the contribution of intersecting social transitions and \r changing risks. Literature on adaptation-related response frequently \r draws on theories of change to assess the likely contribution of \r [...]"


id: 159eda8463b020b7df8c15349ae71de1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1020
content:
"National and local governments are also frequently engaged \r in reported adaptation across most regions. In Africa and Asia, \r reported adaptations have been primarily associated with individuals, \r households, national governments, non-governmental organisations \r (NGOs), and international institutions, with more limited reporting of \r involvement from sub-national governments or the private sector (Ford \r et al., 2015a; Ford and King, 2015; Hunter et al., 2020). Engagement by \r sub-national governments in adaptation is more frequently documented \r in Europe and North America (Craft and Howlett, 2013; Craft et al., 2013; \r Bauer and Steurer, 2014; Lesnikowski et al., 2015; Shi et al., 2015; Austin \r et al., 2016). Reporting of private sector engagement is generally low. \r Civil society participation in adaptations is reported across all regions. \r Consistent with this, local governments are also widely reported \r in documented adaptation responses, particularly where municipal \r [...]"


id: 9cec3b90c7b846203b8bdddf5c8e59fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24844
content:
"Drought and precipitation variability are the most prevalent hazards \r in the adaptation literature, particularly in the context of food and \r livelihood security. Adaptation frequently occurs in response to specific \r rapid or slow-onset physical events that can have adverse impacts on \r people. In some cases, people adapt in anticipation of climate change in \r general or to take advantage of new opportunities created by hazards \r (e.g., increased navigability due to melting sea ice). There is evidence \r that prior experience with hazards increases adaptation response \r (Barreca et al., 2015). Following drought and precipitation variability, \r the next specific hazards that are most frequently documented in the \r global adaptation literature are heat and flooding. Heat, while less \r salient, appears to be a driver of adaptation across all regions and \r sectors (Stone Jr et al., 2014; Hintz et al., 2018; Nunfam et al., 2018). \r [...]"


id: f72ebbfa3ce987aed3172b1c72b0509f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40862
content:
"[...] Drought, extreme precipitation, and inland flooding are commonly \r reported in the context of water and sanitation (Bauer and Steurer, \r 2015; Lindsay, 2018; Kirchhoff and Watson, 2019; Hunter et al., 2020; \r Simpson et al., 2020). Flooding is frequently reported as a key hazard \r for adaptation in cities, followed by drought, precipitation variability, \r heat, and SLR (Broto and Bulkeley, 2013; Araos et al., 2016; Georgeson \r et al., 2016; Mees, 2017; Reckien et al., 2018; Hunter et al., 2020)."


id: b7fb258e367a27c627905ca452e0c561
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29583
content:
"Behavioural change is the most common form of adaptation. \r The scientific literature presents extensive evidence of behavioural \r adaptation--change in the strategies, practices and actions that \r people, particularly individuals and households, undertake to reduce \r risk (Figure  16.5). This includes, for example, household measures to \r protect homes from flooding, protect crops from drought, relocation \r out of hazard zones, and shifting livelihood strategies (Porter et  al., \r 2014). This is followed by adaptation via technological innovation and \r infrastructural development, nature-based adaptation (enhancing, \r protecting or promoting ecosystem services) and institutional adaptation \r (enhancing multi-level governance or institutional capabilities). \r Behavioural adaptation is most frequently documented in Asia, Africa \r and Small Island States, and in the agriculture, health and development \r sectors. In the agricultural sector, households are adopting or changing \r [...]"


id: fd7c08ed193ad2ef60549e84f8ba0241
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41952
content:
"The mix of adaptation response types differs across regions \r and sectors. Technological and infrastructural responses are widely \r reported in Europe, and globally in the context of cities and water \r and sanitation (Mees, 2017; Hintz et  al., 2018). Responses to flood \r risk in Europe include the use of flood- and climate-resistant building \r materials, large-scale flood management, and water storage and \r irrigation systems (van Hooff et al., 2015; Mees, 2017). Technological \r and infrastructural responses are also documented to some extent in \r agriculture, including, for example, breeding more climate-resilient \r crops, precision farming and other high-tech solutions such as genetic \r modification (Makhado et  al., 2014; Fisher et  al., 2015; Costantini \r et al., 2020; Fraga et al., 2021; Grusson et al., 2021; Naulleau et al., \r 2021). While less common, institutional responses are more prominent \r in North America and Australasia as compared with other regions, \r [...]"


id: 80c1c3b3f30ca9376848cb305d0057eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19786
content:
"[...] and include zoning regulations, new building codes, new insurance \r schemes, and coordination mechanisms (Craft and Howlett, 2013; \r Craft et al., 2013; Parry, 2014; Ford et al., 2015b; Beiler et al., 2016; \r Lesnikowski et  al., 2016; Labbe et  al., 2017; Sterle and Singletary, \r 2017; Hu et al., 2018; Conevska et al., 2019). Institutional adaptations "


id: 66f1bad984ddbb29e302a6a87c421256
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:23:03
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15378
content:
"2018; Folkerts et al., 2020). Investment in flood protection, including \r building design and monitoring and forecasting, have reduced flood\u0002related mortality over time and are cost-effective (Bouwer and Jonkman \r 2018; Ward et al. 2017). Declining heat sensitivity, primarily reported \r in developed nations, has also been observed, and has been linked to \r air conditioning, reduced social vulnerability and improved population \r health (Boeckmann and Rohn, 2014; Chung et al., 2017; Kinney, 2018; \r Sheridan and Allen, 2018). Formetta and Feyen (2019) demonstrate \r declining global all-cause mortality and economic loss due to extreme \r weather events over the past four decades, with the greatest reductions \r in low-income countries, and with reductions correlated with wealth. \r Studies that correlate changes in mortality or economic losses with \r wealth indicators, to infer changes in vulnerability or exposure, lack \r [...]"


