# document

id: 6863af35a3048963e91ab2c7ed116b86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15632
content:
"[...] which is well-funded and lobbies strongly. Bilateral agreements for \r resource development in the Arctic are typically state dominated and \r controlled, and are negotiated with powerful non-state actors, such \r as state-dominated companies (Young, 2016). Among the non-state \r actors, new networks and economic forums have been established \r (Wehrmann, 2016). One example is the Arctic Economic Council, \r created by the Arctic Council during 2013-2015 as an independent \r organisation that facilitates Arctic business-to-business activities and \r supports economic development."


id: d2214740da60c3caa47cfc790a19dd18
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34324
content:
"The growth of the polar tourism market is, in part, a  response to \r climate change, as travellers seek 'last-chance' opportunities, which, \r in turn, is creating new challenges in governance (Section  3.2.4.2). \r Polar-class expedition cruise vessels are now, for the first time, being \r purposefully built for recreational Arctic sea travel. The anticipated \r near- and long-term growth of Arctic tourism, especially with small \r vessels (yachts) (Johnston et al., 2017), points to a deficiency in current \r regulations and policies to address human safety, environmental \r risks and cultural impacts. Industry growth also points to the need \r for operators, governments, destination communities and others to \r identify and evaluate adaptation strategies, such as disaster relief \r management plans, updated navigation technologies for vessels, codes \r of conduct for visitors and improved maps (Pizzolato et al., 2016) and \r [...]"


id: 43e0b163aa98abd98da97f036f7186ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9173
content:
"[...] to respond to perceptions of tourism by residents of local destinations \r (Kajan, 2014; Stokke and Haukeland, 2017). Efforts were initiated \r with stakeholders in Arctic Canada to identify strategies that would \r lower risks (Pizzolato et al., 2016); a next step to lower risks and build \r resilience is to further develop those strategies (AMAP, 2017a; AMAP, \r 2017b; AMAP, 2018). Opportunities for tourism vessels in the Arctic to \r contribute to international research activities ('ships of opportunity') \r may improve sovereignty claims in some regions, contribute to science \r and enhance education of the public (Stewart et al., 2013; Arctic \r Council, 2015a; Stewart et al., 2015; de la Barre et al., 2016)."


id: 2ff0752349b7fda20963804da66a88ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5690
content:
"Industry has responded to the increase in shipping activity by \r investing in development of shipping designs for travel in mixed-ice \r environments (Stephenson et al., 2011; Stephenson et al., 2013). \r These increases in investments are occurring in spite of the limited \r total savings when comparing shorter travel to increased CO2\r emissions (Lindstad et al., 2016). In anticipation of spills, research \r in several regions has explored oil spill response viability and new \r methods of oil spill response for the Arctic environment (Bullock et al., \r 2017; Dilliplaine, 2017; Holst-Andersen et al., 2017; Lewis and Prince, \r 2018) (medium confidence). A comparative risk assessment for spills \r has been developed for the Arctic waters (Robinson et al., 2017) and \r Statoil has developed and uses risk assessment decision-support \r tools for environmental management, together with environmental \r monitoring (Utvik and Jahre-Nilsen, 2016). These tools facilitate the \r [...]"


id: b8e0d0623a1e0445f9cd1dc5f9e85030
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29731
content:
"[...] assessment of Arctic oil-spill response capability, ice detection in \r low visibility, improved management of sea ice and icebergs, and \r numerical modelling of icing and snow as risk mitigation. "


id: 85a25cd93a396646bda79dd7ae0940a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20653
content:
"At present health adaptation to climate change is generally \r under-represented in policies, planning, and programming (AHDR, \r 2014). For instance, all initiatives of the Fifth National Communications \r of Annex I parties to the UNFCCC affect health vulnerability, however, \r only 15% of initiatives had an explicit human health component \r described (Lesnikowski et al., 2011). The Arctic is no exception to \r this global trend. Despite the substantial health risks associated with \r climate change in the Arctic, health adaptation responses remain \r sparse and piecemeal (Lesnikowski et al., 2011; Panic and Ford, 2013; \r Ford et al., 2014b; Loboda, 2014), with the health sector substantially \r under-represented in adaptation initiatives compared to other sectors \r (Pearce et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2014b; National Research Council, \r 2015). Furthermore, the geographic distribution of publicly available \r documentation on adaptation initiatives is skewed in the Arctic, with \r [...]"


id: 4fdfb259d83fe14fd13c3cf1fe423a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11348
content:
"The Polar Code of 2017 sets new standards for vessels travelling in \r polar areas to mitigate environmental damage and improve safety \r (IMO, 2017). The Polar Code, however, currently excludes fishing \r vessels and vessels on government service, thereby excluding many \r shipping activities, particularly in the Antarctic region (IMO, 2017). \r Many ships travelling these waters will therefore continue to pose \r risks to the environment and to themselves, as they are not regulated \r under the Polar Code (high confidence). The Polar Code does not \r enhance enforcement capabilities or include environmental protection \r provisions to address a  number of particular polar region-specific \r risks such as black carbon, ballast water and heavy fuel oil transport \r and use in the Arctic (Anderson, 2012; Sakhuja, 2014; IMO, 2017). \r However, both Russian and Canadian legislation provide the possibility \r for stricter shipping provisions in ice-covered waters. The IMO has \r [...]"


id: bddf62bef88f1fad32aa61b366b79a76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30662
content:
"Brubaker et al., 2013; Douglas et al., 2014; Austin et al., 2015; Bunce \r et al., 2016; Cunsolo et al., 2017) (high confidence). Several regional \r and national-level initiatives on food security (ICC, 2012), as well as \r research reporting high levels of household food insecurity (Kofinas \r et al., 2016; Watts et al., 2017) have prompted greater concerns for \r climate change (Loring et al., 2013; Beaumier et al., 2015; Islam and \r Berkes, 2016). A new initiative to operationalise One Health concepts \r and approaches under the AC's Sustainable Development Working \r Group has gained momentum since 2015 (Ruscio et al., 2015). One \r Health approaches seek to link human, animal, and environmental \r health, using interdisciplinary and participatory methods that can \r draw on indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (Dudley \r et al., 2015). Thus far, the initiative has supported new regional-to\u0002international networks, and proposals for its expansion. In the future, \r [...]"


id: 7cbd91b414dc9f96cdad2fa97d733560
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19143
content:
"[...] the ability to manage, respond, and adapt to climate-related health \r challenges will be a defining issue for the health sector in the Arctic \r (Ford et al., 2010; Durkalec et al., 2015) (medium confidence). "


id: 5f18e21a22b23e560336940c83af8cec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14032
content:
"anticipatory and reactive measures for numerous sectors, including \r health (Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala, 2007). In Alaska, the Arctic \r Investigations Program responds to infectious disease via advancing \r molecular diagnostics, integrating data from electronic health records \r and environmental observing networks, as well as improving access \r to in-home water and sanitation services. Furthermore, circumpolar \r efforts are also underway, including a  circumpolar working group \r with experts from public health to assess climate-sensitive infectious \r diseases, and to identify initiatives that reduce the risks of disease \r (Parkinson et al., 2014). Importantly, health adaptation is occurring \r at the local scale in the Arctic (Ford et al., 2014a; Ford et al., 2014b). \r Adaptation at the local-scale is broad, ranging from community \r freezers to increase food security, to community-based monitoring \r programs to detect and respond to climate health events, to Elders \r [...]"


id: 2dabd8e2c636266cfba034a2d615e812
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5325
content:
"[...] mentoring youth in cultural activities to promote mental health when \r people are 'stuck' in the communities due to unsafe travel conditions \r (Pearce et al., 2010; Brubaker et al., 2011; Harper et al., 2012; "


id: 3936de0db878a383a083df8ea533e3a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7277
content:
"In the Arctic, responses to climate change do not only lead to \r international governance cooperation but also to competition \r in access to natural resources, especially hydrocarbons. With ice \r retreating and thinning, and improved access to natural resources, \r coastal states are increasingly recurring to the option to invoke Article \r 76 of the UNCLOS (Art. 76 UNCLOS; Verschuuren, 2013) and seek to \r demonstrate with scientific data, submitted to the Commission on \r the Limits of Continental Shelf, and within a set timeline, that their \r continental shelf is extended. In that case they can enjoy sovereign \r rights beyond the EEZ. It is very unlikely that this new trend from \r states to refer to Article 76 will lead to future (military) conflicts \r (Berkman and Vylegzhanin, 2013; Kullerud et al., 2013; Stokke, 2013; \r Verschuuren, 2013), although the issue cannot be totally dismissed \r (Kraska, 2011; Atland, 2013; Huebert, 2013; Cassotta et al., 2015; \r [...]"


id: b483cfddec82aae30d7f46f9cd7aef27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29003
content:
"In the Antarctic, cooperation in general does occur via UNCLOS, \r the Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea and the Convention for \r the Prevention of Pollution from Ships and the Polar Code. Global \r environmental and climate regimes that are implemented and \r managed through regional regimes (such as the Kyoto Protocol or \r the Paris Agreement) are also relevant for the Antarctic Treaty and \r its Protocol on Environmental Protection, which requires, amongst \r other issues, a  minimisation of adverse environmental impacts. \r Cooperation in the Antarctic also occurs through the the Convention \r for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. Climate \r change and its consequences for the marine environment are \r a  central issue for this Convention because it challenges ways to \r regulate and manage fisheries and designate and manage Marine \r Protected Areas. Nevertheless, CCAMLR has not agreed to any \r climate change program and at its most recent meeting, there was \r [...]"


id: 418549cefbdb81c2c48a8590e6c1f15a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8718
content:
"[...] again no agreement to do so (Brooks et al. (2018), CCAMLR Report \r on the 37th Meeting of the Commission, CCAMLR (2018))."


id: f64c2e678d5b1a3bdefafdedc4fc6faf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40698
content:
"In both polar regions, cooperative approaches to regional governance \r have been developed to allow for the participation of non-state actors. \r In some cases, regimes allow for a substantial level of participation \r by specific groups of the civil society (Jabour, 2017; Keil and Knecht, \r 2017). For example, in the Antarctic Treaty System, the Antarctic Treaty \r Parties included the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research into \r their Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty. \r In the Arctic, the status of Permanent Participants has enabled the \r effective participation of Indigenous Peoples in the work of the \r Council (Pincus and Ali, 2016). Climate change has contributed to \r modifying the balance between the interests of state and non-state \r actors, leading to changing forms of cooperation (Young, 2016). \r While such changes and modifications occur in both the Arctic and \r Antarctic, the role of states has remained present in all the regimes \r [...]"


id: ffbe926b06c081d471581eab1eb44a7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42385
content:
"to: non-Arctic states, intergovernmental and inter-parliamentary \r organisations, global and regional non-governmental organisations \r (NGOs). The Council is an example of cooperation through soft law, \r a unique institutional body that does not possess a legal personality \r and is neither an international law nor a  completely state-centric \r institution. However, it is acting state-centric and increasingly \r operating in a context of the Arctic affected by a changing climate, \r globalisation and transnationalism (Baker and Yeager, 2015; Cassotta \r et al., 2015; Pincus and Speth, 2015) (medium confidence). In 2013, \r China, South Korea, Italy, Japan, India and Singapore joined France, \r Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the UK as Observers \r states to the Arctic Council; Switzerland was granted Observer status \r in 2017. Non-Arctic States are stimulating the Council towards \r adopting a  new approach for Arctic governance that would leave \r [...]"


id: 3bcdc66d4c1b68d61ee95c11861cb7f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7709
content:
"The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) is the collective term for the \r Antarctic Treaty and related agreements. The ATS regulates \r international relations with respect to Antarctica. 54 countries have \r acceded to the Treaty and 29 of them participate in decision making \r as Consultative Parties. 27 countries are Party to the CCAMLR, and \r 40 have ratified the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the \r Antarctic Treaty. The importance of understanding, mitigating and \r adapting to the impacts of changes to the Southern Ocean and \r Antarctic cryosphere has been realised by all of the major bodies \r responsible for governance in the Antarctic region (south of 60oS). \r The Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties agreed that a  Climate \r Change Response Work Programme would address these matters \r (ATCM, 2016). This led to the establishment of the Subsidiary Group \r of the Committee for Environmental Protection on Climate Change \r [...]"


id: 68546a6543d08ddd36d83193590c38f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15625
content:
"[...] Response (ATCM, 2017). By contrast, consensus is currently limiting \r work programme-level responses to climate change by CCAMLR \r (2017a), while opportunities exist to incorporate climate concerns \r into mechanisms for implementation and monitoring aimed to \r conserve ecosystems and the environment (Brooks et al., 2018)."


id: 3f4c62faf550b5024109e1d4ab730bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8328
content:
"Despite lacking the role to enact hard law, three binding agreements \r were negotiated under the auspices of the Council (in its task forces), \r the latest of which is the Agreement on Enhancing International \r Arctic Scientific Cooperation, which is an indication that the Council \r is preparing a  regulatory role to respond to climate change in the \r Arctic using hard-law instruments (Morgera and Kulovesi, 2016; \r Shapovalova, 2016). Through organising the Task Force on Black \r Carbon and Methane (Morgera and Kulovesi, 2016), the Council has \r catalysed action on short-lived climate forcers as the task force was \r followed by the adoption in 2015 of the Arctic Council Framework for \r Action on Enhanced Black Carbon and Methane Emission Reductions. \r In this non-legally binding agreement, Arctic States lay out a common \r vision for national and collective action to accelerate decline in black \r carbon and methane emissions (Shapovalova, 2016). The Council \r [...]"


id: 9d7ded6e372c768aee06cf6039497514
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24947
content:
"[...] thereby moved from merely assessing problems to attempting to \r solve them (Baker and Yeager, 2015; Young, 2016; Koivurova and \r Caddell, 2018). While mitigation of global emissions from fossil fuels \r requires global cooperation, progress with anthropogenic emissions \r of short-term climate forcers (such as black carbon and methane) may \r be achieved through smaller groups of countries (Aakre et al., 2018). \r However, even though the Council has also embraced the Ecosystem \r Approach, it does not have a mandate to manage climate-related risks \r and impacts, or apply a precautionary approach, on fisheries issues."


id: f8e1def214243e002ac861ed3760807
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41152
content:
"Community-based monitoring (CBM) in the Arctic has emerged as \r a practice of great interest because of its potential to link western \r ways of knowing with local knowledge and indigenous knowledge \r (Retter et al., 2004; Johnson et al., 2015a; Johnson et al., 2015b; \r Kouril et al., 2016; AMAP, 2017a; Williams et al., 2018). In several \r CBM programs, innovative approaches using the internet, mobile \r phones, hand-held information devices, and camera-equipped \r GPS units are capturing, documenting and communicating local \r observations of change (Brubaker et al., 2011; Brubaker et al., 2013). \r The integration of community observations with instrument-based \r observations and its use in research has proven challenging, with \r technical and cultural issues (Griffith et al., 2018). Execution of \r CBM programs in the Arctic has also proven to be labour intensive \r and difficult to sustain, requiring long-term financial support, \r [...]"


id: 27a714a9c740679612463f22e8fdf31f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4158
content:
"[...] agreements specifying data ownership, sufficient human capital, \r and in some cases, the involvement of boundary organisations that \r provide technical support (Pulsifer et al., 2012; Eicken et al., 2014) \r and link CBM with governance (CAFF, 2015b; Robards et al., 2018). \r As is the case in all knowledge production, power relationships \r (i.e., who decides what is a legitimate observation, who has access to \r resources for involvement and who benefits) have been challenging \r where the legitimacy of local knowledge and indigenous knowledge \r is questioned (e.g., Pristupa et al., 2018). There is high agreement\r and limited evidence that CBM facilitates knowledge co-production \r and resilience building. More analyses of Arctic communities and \r their institutional capabilities related to CBM are needed to evaluate \r the potential of these observation systems, and experimentation \r and innovation may help determine how CBM can more effectively \r [...]"


id: c863f713523417483dae3cefa4db0212
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32560
content:
"[...] inform decision making beyond the community (Johnson et al., \r 2015a; Johnson et al., 2015b) (medium confidence)."


id: f017f5a7fcb22c632d042638afba4cc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39623
content:
"A review of scenario analysis in the Arctic, however, found that while \r the practice is widespread and many are using best practice methods, \r less than half scenarios programs incorporated climate projections \r and that those utilising a  backcasting approach had higher local \r participation than those only using forecasting (Flynn et al., 2018). \r It noted that integrating different knowledge systems and attention \r to cultural factors influence program utility and acceptance. Planque \r et al. (2019) also found that most participating stakeholders had \r limited experience using scenario analysis, suggesting the importance \r of process methods for engaging stakeholders when exploring \r possible, likely, and desirable futures. The long-term utility of this \r practice in helping stakeholders engage with each other to envision \r possible futures and be forward thinking in decision making will \r depend on the science of climate projections, further development \r [...]"


id: 4a426d0f2ca4c84d0d2d8fa2074ae790
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10305
content:
"[...] of decision support systems to inform decision makers, attention to \r cultural factors and worldview, as well as refinement of processes \r that facilitate participants' dialogue (medium confidence)."


id: 7b3f7cf1029120a0c1549cb3c48ffe0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18886
content:
"Creating pathways towards greater climate resilience will therefore \r depend, in part, on a  redefined 'actionable science' that creates \r bridges supporting better decisions through more rigorous, accessible, \r and engaging products, while shaping a narrative that instils public \r confidence (Beier et al., 2015; Fleming and Pyenson, 2017) (high \r confidence). Stakeholders of polar regions are increasingly using \r a  suite of creative tools and practices for moving from theory to \r practice in resilience building by informing decision making and \r fostering long-term planning (Baztan et al., 2017). As noted above, \r these practices include participatory scenario planning, forecasting \r for stakeholders, and use structured decision making, solution \r visualisation tools and decision theatres (e.g., Schartmuller et al., 2015; \r Kofinas et al., 2016; Garrett et al., 2017; Holst-Andersen et al., \r 2017; Camus and Smit, 2019). The extent to which these practices \r [...]"


id: a37c893256a2922d38d550a43704bce1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25971
content:
"[...] can contribute to resilience building in the future will depend, in part, \r on the willingness of key actors such as scientists, to provide active \r decision-support services, more often than mere decision-support \r products (Beier et al., 2015). While progress has been made in linking \r science with policy, more enhanced data collaboration at every \r scale, more strategic social engagement, communication that both \r informs decisions and improves climate literacy and explicit creation \r of consensus documents that provide interpretive guidance about \r research implications and alternative choices will be important \r (high confidence)."


id: 3aff7a7759cb15dcb1013988528f4b2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7571
content:
"Structured decision making (SDM) is an emerging practice used with \r stakeholders to identify alternative actions, evaluate trade-offs, and \r inform decisions in complex situations (Gregory et al., 2012). Few \r SDM processes have been undertaken in polar regions, with most \r as exploratory demonstration projects led by researchers. These have \r included indigenous residents and researchers identifying trade-offs \r and actions related to subsistence harvesting in a  changing \r environment (Christie et al., 2018) stakeholder interviews to show \r how a 'triage method' can link community monitoring with community \r needs and wildlife management priorities (Wheeler et al., 2018), and \r the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to address difficult \r decisions related to mining opportunities in Greenland (Trump et al., \r 2018). The Decision Theater North at the University of Alaska is also \r being explored as an innovative method of decision support (Kofinas \r [...]"


id: 6bed024fd571abc99cd444343777f712
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16285
content:
"[...] et al., 2016). SDM may have potential in creating climate resilience \r pathways in polar regions (low confidence), but there is currently \r limited experience with its application."


id: a548cab3e986b511b5327714f4a1152f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26307
content:
"'Adaptive Ecosystem Governance' differs from conventional resource \r management or integrated ecosystem management (Chapin III et al., \r 2009; Chapin III et al., 2010; Chapin III et al., 2015), with a strong \r focus on trajectories of change (i.e.,  emergence), implying that \r maintaining ecosystems in a  state of equilibrium is not possible \r (Biggs et al., 2012; ARR, 2016). This approach strengthens response \r options by maintaining or increasing resource diversity (to support \r human adaptation) and biological diversity (to support ecosystem \r adaptation) (Biggs et al., 2012; Chapin III et al., 2015; Quinlan \r et al., 2016) (high confidence). Adaptive ecosystem governance \r emphasises iterative social learning processes of observing, \r understanding and acting with collaborative partnerships, such as \r adaptive co-management arrangements currently used in regions of \r the Arctic (Armitage et al., 2009; Dale and Armitage, 2011; Chapin III \r [...]"


id: 6d179a7e6f04ffdff31bab20adaba7c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16470
content:
"[...] et al., 2015; Arp et al., 2019). This approach is also currently realised \r through adaptive management of Arctic fisheries in Alaska that \r combines annual measures and within-season provisions informed \r by assessments of future ecosystem trends (Section 3.5.2.1), and the \r use of simulation models with Canadian caribou co-management \r boards to assess the cumulative effects of proposed land use change \r with climate change (Gunn et al., 2011; Russell, 2014a; Russell, \r 2014b). Linking these regional efforts to pan-polar programs can \r enhance resilience building cross multiple scales (e.g., Gunn et al., \r 2013) (medium confidence)."


id: 316ceeb59887e451c476857ddbf11cc6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5938
content:
"Incorporating measures of ecosystem services into assessments \r is key in integrating environmental, economic, and social policies \r that build resilience to climate change in polar regions (CAFF, \r 2015a; Malinauskaite et al., 2019; Sarkki and Acosta Garcia, 2019) \r (high confidence). Currently, there is limited recognition of the \r wide range of benefits people receive from polar ecosystems and \r a  lack of management tools that demonstrate their benefits in \r decision-making processes (CAFF, 2015a). The concept of ecosystem \r services is increasingly used in the Arctic, yet there continues to be \r significant knowledge gaps in mapping, valuation, and the study \r of the social implications of changes in ecosystem services. There \r are few Arctic examples of the application of ecosystem services in \r management (Malinauskaite et al., 2019). A strategy of ecosystem \r stewardship, therefore, is to maintain a continued flow of ecosystem \r [...]"


id: 723a0e8936a9c1bc0c18e0372d9c619
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17337
content:
"[...] services, recognising how their benefits provide incentives for \r preserving biodiversity, while also ensuring options for sustainable \r development and ecosystem-based adaptation (Chapin III \r et al., 2015; Guerry et al., 2015; Diaz et al., 2019). Arctic stewardship \r opportunities at landscape, seascape, and community scales to \r a great extent lie in supporting culturally engrained (often traditional \r indigenous) values of respect for land and animals, and reliance on \r the local environment through the sharing of knowledge and power \r between local users of renewable resources and agencies responsible \r for managing resources (Mengerink et al., 2017) (high confidence). In \r the Antarctic, ecosystem stewardship is dependent on international \r formally-defined and informally-enacted cooperation, and the \r recognition of its service to the global community (Section 3.5.3.2)."


id: 6f9fee38736b5bab4dbe2a1e5321c370
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16896
content:
"Shifts in the distribution, abundance and human use of species and \r populations due to climate-induced cryosphere and ocean change, \r concurrent with land use changes, increase the risks to ecosystem \r health and biodiversity (Kaiser et al., 2015). Building resilience in these \r challenging conditions follows from spatial planning for biodiversity \r that links multiple scales and considers how impacts to ecosystems \r may materialise in social-ecological systems elsewhere (Bengtsson \r et al., 2003; Cumming, 2011; Allen et al., 2016). Developing pathways \r for spatial resilience in polar regions involves systematic planning \r and designating networks of protected areas to protect connected \r tracts of representative habitats, and biologically and ecologically \r significant features (Ban et al., 2014). Protected area networks \r that combine both spatially rigid and spatially flexible regimes \r with climate refugia can support ecological resilience to climate \r [...]"


id: 3b205ef0c0b2cbfb44da6e60612f9212
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7589
content:
"[...] change by maintaining connectivity of populations, foodwebs, and \r the flow of genes across scales (McLeod et al., 2009). This approach \r reduces direct pressures on biodiversity, and thus gives biological \r communities, populations and ecosystems the space to adapt \r (Nystrom and Folke, 2001; Hope et al., 2013; Thomas and Gillingham, \r 2015) (medium confidence). Networks of protected areas are now \r being planned (Solovyev et al., 2017) and implemented (Juvonen and \r Kuhmonen, 2013) in the marine and terrestrial Arctic, respectively; "


id: 49772e83759284151d2959bf29e46d02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10148
content:
"By the end of this century, Arctic sea ice and snow on land are projected \r to be diminished compared with today, as are the masses of the AIS and \r GIS and the polar glaciers (Sections 3.2.2, 3.3.2; 3.4.2). Acidification \r of both polar oceans will have progressed; this, and changing marine \r habitats associated with ocean warming, are projected to impact \r marine ecosystems (Sections  3.2.2,  3.2.3). Permafrost thaw and \r decrease in snow on land are projected to drive habitat and biome \r shifts, affecting ranges and abundance of ecologically important \r species, and driving changes in wildfire, vegetation and human \r infrastructure (Sections 3.4.2, 3.4.3). Collectively, these very different \r future polar environments pose strong challenges to sustainable use \r of natural resources, infrastructure, cultures and lives and livelihoods. \r Although manifested locally, these very different future polar \r environments have the potential to continue/accelerate the global \r [...]"


id: c355385b63d798b5e8e0be0a9d353017
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31638
content:
"Compared with high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, projections \r using low emissions scenarios result in polar regions that will \r be significantly less altered. For example, for stabilised global \r warming of  1.5oC, a  sea ice-free Arctic in September is projected \r to occur significantly less frequently than at 2oC (1% c.f. 10-35%) \r (Section  3.2.2). The potential for reduced but stabilised Arctic \r autumn and spring snow extent by mid-century for RCP2.6 contrasts \r with continued loss under RCP8.5, and the area with near-surface \r permafrost is projected to decrease less by 2100 under RCP2.6 than \r under RCP8.5 (Section  3.4.2). Polar glaciers are projected to lose \r much less mass between 2015 and 2100 under RCP2.6 compared \r with RCP8.5 (Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2). Acidification of the \r polar oceans will progress more slowly and affect much smaller areas \r under RCP2.6 compared with RCP8.5 (Section 3.2.2). These differences \r [...]"


id: 245e25a2d267327784511fb58d9b329e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3590
content:
"[...] have strong implications for natural resource management, economic \r sectors and Arctic cultures (Section 3.5.2). The choices that enable \r these differences influence the rate and magnitude of polar change, \r their consequences and impacts at regional and global scales, the \r effectiveness of adaptation and opportunities for climate resilient \r pathways (Section 3.5.4)."


id: a72ce853ad0971b0fc550fb02aaab9c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26626
content:
"Coastal ecosystems are already impacted by the combination \r of SLR, other climate-related ocean changes, and adverse \r effects from human activities on ocean and land (high \r confidence). Attributing such impacts to SLR, however, remains \r challenging due to the influence of other climate-related and \r non-climatic drivers such as infrastructure development and \r human-induced habitat degradation (high confidence). Coastal \r ecosystems, including saltmarshes, mangroves, vegetated dunes and \r sandy beaches, can build vertically and expand laterally in response \r to SLR, though this capacity varies across sites (high confidence). \r These ecosystems provide important services that include coastal \r protection and habitat for diverse biota. However, as a consequence \r of human actions that fragment wetland habitats and restrict \r landward migration, coastal ecosystems progressively lose their \r ability to adapt to climate-induced changes and provide ecosystem \r [...]"


id: 693e6752aead4a58d0b4365388566c88
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15781
content:
"GMSL was considerably higher than today during past climate \r states that were warmer than pre-industrial, including the \r Last Interglacial (LIG; 129-116 ka), when global mean surface \r temperature was 0.5oC-1.0oC warmer, and the mid-Pliocene \r Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), 2oC-4oC \r warmer. Despite the modest global warmth of the Last \r Interglacial, GMSL was  likely  6-9  m higher, mainly due to \r contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets \r (GIS and AIS, respectively), and unlikely more than 10m higher \r (medium confidence). Based on new understanding about \r geological constraints since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report \r (AR5), 25 m is a plausible upper bound on GMSL during the \r mPWP (low confidence). Ongoing uncertainties in palaeo sea level \r reconstructions and modelling hamper conclusions regarding the \r total magnitudes and rates of past sea level rise (SLR). Furthermore, \r the long (multi-millennial) time scales of these past climate and \r [...]"


id: fc00e09107c86bd9339eb8afd10cbc9a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41694
content:
"[...] sea level changes, and regional climate influences from changes in \r Earth's orbital configuration and climate system feedbacks, lead to \r low confidence in direct comparisons with near-term future changes. \r {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.2.2, 4.2.2.1, 4.2.2.5, SM 4.1}"


id: 66c481ecdcc8748ea9bd9dc353aa4cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15344
content:
"Future rise in GMSL caused by thermal expansion, melting \r of glaciers and ice sheets and land water storage changes, is \r strongly dependent on which Representative Concentration \r Pathway (RCP) emission scenario is followed. SLR at the end \r of the century is projected to be faster under all scenarios, \r including those compatible with achieving the long-term \r temperature goal set out in the Paris Agreement. GMSL will \r rise between 0.43 m (0.29-0.59 m, likely range; RCP2.6) and \r 0.84 m (0.61-1.10 m, likely range; RCP8.5) by 2100 (medium \r confidence) relative to 1986-2005. Beyond 2100, sea level will \r continue to rise for centuries due to continuing deep ocean heat \r uptake and mass loss of the GIS and AIS and will remain elevated \r for thousands of years (high confidence). Under RCP8.5, estimates \r for 2100 are higher and the uncertainty range larger than in AR5. \r Antarctica could contribute up to 28 cm of SLR (RCP8.5, upper end of \r [...]"


id: e426dc8611f2316cc38e1f81872671af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37443
content:
"[...] likely range) by the end of the century (medium confidence). Estimates \r of SLR higher than the likely range are also provided here for decision \r makers with low risk tolerance. {SR1.5, 4.1, 4.2.3.2, 4.2.3.5}"


id: ab462221c09228bad632e121b816d81
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27359
content:
"In the absence of adaptation, more intense and frequent ESL \r events, together with trends in coastal development will \r increase expected annual flood damages by 2-3 orders of \r magnitude by 2100 (high confidence). However, well designed \r coastal protection is very effective in reducing expected \r damages and cost efficient for urban and densely populated \r regions, but generally unaffordable for rural and poorer areas \r (high confidence). Effective protection requires investments on the \r order of tens to several hundreds of billions of USD yr-1 globally (high \r confidence). While investments are generally cost efficient for densely \r populated and urban areas (high confidence), rural and poorer areas \r will be challenged to afford such investments with relative annual \r costs for some small island states amounting to several percent of \r GDP (high confidence). Even with well-designed hard protection, the \r risk of possibly disastrous consequences in the event of failure of \r [...]"


id: ed0a340c520c1b9f3486993eddd6d3a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39072
content:
"Despite the large uncertainties about post 2050 SLR, \r adaptation decisions can be made now, facilitated by using \r decision analysis methods specifically designed to address \r uncertainty (high confidence). These methods favour flexible \r responses (i.e., those that can be adapted over time) and periodically \r adjusted decisions (i.e.,  adaptive decision making). They use \r robustness criteria (i.e., effectiveness across a range of circumstances) \r for evaluating alternative responses instead of standard expected \r utility criteria (high confidence). One example is adaptation pathway \r analysis, which has emerged as a low-cost tool to assess long-term \r coastal responses as sequences of adaptive decisions in the face of \r dynamic coastal risk characterised by deep uncertainty (medium \r evidence, high agreement). The range of SLR to be considered \r in decisions depends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders, with \r stakeholders whose risk tolerance is low also considering SLR higher \r [...]"


id: a3e71bc7ff4a9ca12c2a7482cc0ba296
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26028
content:
"Adaptation experience to date demonstrates that using a \r locally appropriate combination of decision analysis, land \r use planning, public participation and conflict resolution \r approaches can help to address the governance challenges \r faced in responding to SLR (high confidence). Effective SLR \r responses depend, first, on taking a long-term perspective when \r making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of \r locality-specific risks beyond 2050 (high confidence), and building \r governance capabilities to tackle the complexity of SLR risk (medium \r evidence, high agreement). Second, improved coordination of SLR \r responses across scales, sectors and policy domains can help to \r address SLR impacts and risk (high confidence). Third, prioritising \r consideration of social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to \r promote fair and just climate resilience and sustainable development \r (high confidence) and can be helped by creating safe community \r [...]"


id: 2cda263633845d15d4e7e6b1b4a0a9fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5159
content:
"[...] arenas for meaningful public deliberation and conflict resolution \r (medium evidence, high agreement). Finally, public awareness and \r understanding about SLR risks and responses can be improved by \r drawing on local, indigenous and scientific knowledge systems, \r together with social learning about locality-specific SLR risk and \r response potential (high confidence). {4.4.4.2, 4.4.5, Table 4.9}"


id: fa32cdf36b8c23d71e6ae9af7163e02d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41387
content:
"Technical limits to hard protection are expected to be reached \r under high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) beyond 2100 (high \r confidence) and biophysical limits to EbA may arise during \r the 21st century, but economic and social barriers arise well \r before the end of the century (medium confidence). Economic \r challenges to hard protection increase with higher sea levels and will \r make adaptation unaffordable before technical limits are reached \r (high confidence). Drivers other than SLR are expected to contribute \r more to biophysical limits of EbA. For corals, limits may be reached \r during this century, due to ocean acidification and ocean warming, \r and for tidal wetlands due to pollution and infrastructure limiting \r their inland migration. Limits to accommodation are expected to occur \r well before limits to protection occur. Limits to retreat are uncertain, \r reflecting research gaps. Social barriers (including governance \r [...]"


id: 2cc5afd9cfdbf1d6cf9e0a54a3b984d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5142
content:
"[...] challenges) to adaptation are already encountered. {4.4.2.2, 4.4.2.3., \r 4.4.2.3.2, 4.4.2.5, 4.4.2.6, 4.4.3, Cross-Chapter Box 9}"


id: 6a9531ce4ee5b44728ba83d108130c3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16036
content:
"After an increase of sea level from 1-2 mm yr-1 in most regions over \r the past century, rates of 3-4 mm yr-1 are now being experienced that \r will further increase to 4-9 mm yr-1 under RCP2.6 and 10-20 mm yr-1\r at the end of the century under RCP8.5. Nevertheless, up to 2050, \r uncertainty in climate change-driven future sea level is relatively \r small, which provides a robust basis for short-term (PS30 years) \r adaptation planning. GMSL will rise between 0.24 m (0.17-0.32 m, \r likely range) under RCP2.6 and 0.32 m (0.23-0.40 m, likely range) \r under RCP8.5 (medium confidence; 4.2.3). The combined effect of \r mean and extreme sea levels results in events which are rare in the \r historical context (return period of 100 years or larger; probability \r <0.01 yr-1) occurring yearly at some locations by the middle of this \r century under all emission scenarios (4.2.3.4.1; high confidence). This \r includes, for instance, those parts of the intertropical low-lying coasts \r [...]"


id: 4362f83f397e4b97c8c7aa763e93fae4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9073
content:
"[...] that are currently exposed to storm surges only infrequently. Hence, \r additional adaptation is needed irrespective of the uncertainties in \r future global GHG emissions and the Antarctic contribution to SLR."


id: 558800bd80cc72e8bee4600b0fe11945
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12318
content:
"Despite the large uncertainty in late 21st century SLR, progress in \r adaptation planning and implementation is feasible today and may be \r economically beneficial. Many coastal decisions with time horizons of \r decades to over a century are made today (e.g., critical infrastructure, \r coastal protection works, city planning, etc.) and accounting for \r relative SLR can improve these decisions. Decision-analysis methods \r specifically targeting situations of large uncertainty are available and, \r combined with suitable planning, public participation and conflict \r resolution processes, can improve outcomes (high confidence; 4.4.4.2, \r 4.4.4.3). For example, adaptation pathway analysis recognises and \r enables sequenced long-term decision making in the face of dynamic \r coastal risk characterised by deep uncertainty (medium evidence, high \r agreement; 4.4.4.3.4). The use of these decision-analysis tools can \r be integrated into statutory land use or spatial planning provisions \r [...]"


id: ca079a403c58abf141660be15e78bcb9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32872
content:
"[...] to formalise these decisions and enable effective implementation by \r relevant governing authorities (4.4.4.2)."


id: df1fd66cc9bd26b3394e7412213eb486
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36508
content:
"Figure 4.2 | Projected sea level rise (SLR) until 2300. The inset shows an assessment of the likely range of the projections for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 up to 2100 (medium \r confidence). Projections for longer time scales are highly uncertain but a range is provided (4.2.3.6; low confidence). For context, results are shown from other estimation \r approaches in 2100 and 2300. The two sets of two bars labelled B19 are from an expert elicitation for the Antarctic component (Bamber et al., 2019), and reflect the \r likely range for a 2oC and 5oC temperature warming (low confidence; details section 4.2.3.3.1). The bar labelled \"prob.\" indicates the likely range of a set of probabilistic \r projections (4.2.3.2). The arrow indicated by S18 shows the result of an extensive sensitivity experiment with a numerical model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) combined, \r [...]"


id: 7102e614b4eed10dd4fa137be53dd0e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17145
content:
"[...] like the results from B19 and \"prob.\", with results from Church et al. (2013) for the other components of SLR. S18 also shows the likely range. "


id: 3e1ec7d55953c55a7148c32d4c0a5dcb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8102
content:
"In many places, however, non SLR-related, local environmental and \r human dimensions of exposure and vulnerability play a critical \r role in increasing exposure and vulnerability to coastal hazards \r (Section  4.3.2.5). For example, the ability of morphological and \r ecological systems (Sections 4.3.3.3 and 4.3.3.5) to protect human \r settlements and infrastructure by attenuating ESL events and \r stabilising shorelines is progressively being lost due to coastal squeeze, \r pollution, habitat degradation and fragmentation (Section 4.3.3.5.4; \r high confidence). Hence, an important near term response to RSL rise \r is to reduce these adverse environmental and human dimensions \r of exposure and vulnerability. In addition, the drivers of exposure \r and vulnerability vary across different coastal contexts ranging \r from resource-rich cities to small islands (Sections 4.3.3, 4.3.4). \r Accordingly, effective responses need to be context-specific, and \r [...]"


id: ccf4de4121c025ee6bec76b4aca96fe4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33401
content:
"Figure 4.3 | Additional risk related to sea level rise (SLR) for low-lying coastal areas by the end of the 21st century. Section 4.3.4 provides a synthesis of the assessment \r methodology and the findings, while SM4.3 provides details. Left-hand panel describes global mean sea level (GMSL) rise observations for the Present-Day (1986-2005) \r and projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2100 relative to the Present-Day according to advances in this chapter. Relative sea level (RSL) changes at specific locations \r are represented by the coloured blocs (range of the real-world case studies used) and coloured dotted lines (mean) at the background of the middle panel, which describes \r risk to illustrative geographies as assessed in this chapter. Each illustrative geography is supported by real-world case studies described in the literature (Box 4.1, 4.3.4.1 \r [...]"


id: e4780cede0400d6a14bf51f06717c9b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37485
content:
"[...] and Table SM4.2.5): three for resource-rich coastal cities, three for urban atoll islands, two for large tropical agricultural deltas, five for Arctic communities. N.B. (1): Only \r Arctic communities remote from regions of rapid glacial-isostatic adjustment have been selected for this assessment. N.B (2): according to the specific scope of the chapter, \r this assessment focuses on the additional risks due to SLR and does not account for changes in extreme event climatology (Sections 4.2.3.4.1 to 4.2.3.4.3, 6.3.1.1 to \r 6.3.1.3), which in some cases would imply a different level of risk than assessed here. The middle panel also distinguishes between two adaptation scenarios. (A) 'No-to\u0002moderate response' represents a business-as-usual scenario where no major additional adaptation efforts compared to today's level of effort are implemented (i.e., neither \r [...]"


id: 797fa398e2a223f3e151a5ff480723e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18579
content:
"[...] further significant intensification of action nor new types of actions). (B) 'Maximum potential response' represents the opposite situation, that is, an ambitious combination \r of both incremental and transformational adaptation that leads to significant additional efforts compared to today and to (A). Here, the authors assume adaptation \r implemented at its full potential, that is, the extent of adaptation that is technologically possible, with minimal financial, social and political barriers."


id: 4af58b98b8415b749147d86038cc8b4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10430
content:
"will continue to play the central role in response strategies (4.4.2.2, \r Box 4.1). In general, it is technologically feasible and economically \r efficient to protect large parts of cities against 21st century SLR (high \r confidence; 4.4.2.2.4, 4.4.2.7). However, questions of affordability \r remain for poorer and developing regions (4.3.3.4, 4.4.2.2.3). In \r cities, advance can offer a way to finance coastal protection through \r revenues generated from newly created land (4.4.2.4), but raises \r equity concerns with regard to the distribution of costs and access \r to the new land (4.4.2.4.6). Where space is available, EbA can \r supplement hard protection (4.4.2.3), except in situations where \r other human interventions, like infrastructure and pollution, interfere \r with EbA, especially for RCP8.5 (Cross-Chapter Box 9). Retreat may \r currently be favoured over rebuilding in the aftermath of major \r flooding disasters, but in densely populated areas protected by hard \r [...]"


id: 7aa451a4bef41acdc019a09f75185dff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18773
content:
"[...] infrastructure, general retreat need not be considered until later in \r the century once it is known whether or not SLR will reach the higher \r end of the projections (1.1 m or more by 2100; 4.4.2.6)."


id: 66c56e408c4f1983e3ebd3c5d4c288e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15345
content:
"Responding to SLR refers to reducing hazards, exposure and \r vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. It can be approached in \r fundamentally different ways and five major categories are described \r in this chapter (Box 4.3): Protection reduces coastal risk and impacts \r by blocking the inland propagation and other effects of mean or \r extreme sea levels hazards (e.g.,  through dikes, seawalls, storm \r surge barriers, breakwaters, beach-dune systems, etc.). Advance \r creates new land by building seawards (e.g., reclamation of new land \r above sea levels or planting vegetation with the specific intention \r to support natural accretion of land). Ecosystem-based adaptation \r (EbA) provides a combination of the benefits of protect and advance \r strategies based on the conservation and restoration of ecosystems \r such as reefs and coastal vegetation. Accommodation includes a \r diverse set of biophysical and institutional responses to reduce \r [...]"


id: a5d1c5629a514338354b67b65b5a868f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26399
content:
"[...] vulnerability of coastal residents, human activities, ecosystems and \r the built environment (e.g., raising buildings, planting salt tolerant \r crops, insurance and EWS for ESL events). Retreat reduces exposure \r to coastal hazards by moving people, assets and human activities out \r of the exposed coastal area."


id: 69f2c370ba08e8ad1dfd2469a374e1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15904
content:
"Along sparsely populated rural coasts, safeguarding communities \r by conserving coastal ecosystems and natural morphodynamic \r processes, and restoring those already degraded, is the central \r element of an integrated strategy. Intact coastal ecosystems can \r protect settlements and, in some contexts, natural sedimentation \r processes and avoiding sand mining can help to raise exposed land \r (4.4.2.2). Hard coastal protection can lead to flooding or erosion \r elsewhere (4.4.2.2.5), and the destruction of ecosystems and the \r coastal protection they offer (4.3.3.5). Ecosystem health can be \r further maintained by reducing non-climatic drivers such as those \r that interrupt sediment flows in deltas and estuaries (4.3.2.3). Hard \r protection may be appropriate for areas containing high value assets \r (e.g.,  settlements and cultural sites). Retreat is worth considering \r now where coastal population size and density is low, risks are \r [...]"


id: 64d6fe629261f6f61e5694f09c690ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15015
content:
"[...] already high, and the economic, cultural and sociopolitical impacts of \r retreat and resettlement are carefully considered and addressed by \r at-risk communities and their governing authorities."


id: 9abf260ad318a5a56745ebe18a8aacb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24466
content:
"Each type of response has particular advantages and disadvantages, \r and may play a synergistic role in an integrated and sequenced \r response to SLR. For example, hard protection needs less space and \r its effectiveness is more predictable than for EbA (high confidence; \r 4.4.2.2.4, 4.4.2.3.4). EbA has advantages of contributing to \r conservation goals and providing additional ecosystem services such \r as carbon sequestration and improved water quality (4.4.2.2.5). EbA \r can become more effective over time, because coastal ecosystems can \r migrate inland with rising sea levels, provided this is not restricted \r by infrastructure (4.4.2.2.4). In practise, hard, sediment-based and \r ecosystem-based protection responses are often combined and there \r is high agreement that such hybrid approaches are a promising way \r forward (4.4.2.3.1). Advance is an option widely practised when land \r is scarce and offers the opportunity to finance adaptation through \r [...]"


id: 7d3e7faabd53ab5d318c78d293e83b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19210
content:
"[...] land sale revenues, but can also increase exposure and destroy coastal \r wetlands and their protective function (4.4.2.4). Accommodation \r measures such as flood proofing buildings, flood forecasting, early \r warning and emergency planning have high benefit-cost ratios, \r which means that implementing them is much cheaper than doing \r nothing (4.4.2.5.6). Retreat, and avoidance of development in some \r locations, are the only types of responses that eliminate residual \r risks, assuming there is sufficiently safe alternative land to retreat to \r or develop (4.4.2.6, Cross-Chapter Box 9). "


id: 57a4968a87d7e74f4a4640f34a22b11d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12687
content:
"These governance challenges can be addressed through an integrated \r combination of well-established and emerging planning, public \r participation and conflict resolution practices (Section  4.4.4.2), \r decision analysis methods (Section 4.4.4.3) and enabling conditions \r (Section 4.4.5). For example, iterative planning and flexible, adaptive \r and robust decision making (RDM) can help coastal communities to \r plan for the future and account for SLR uncertainty. Planning can also \r enable thinking and action across spatial, temporal and governance \r scales and thus help to coordinate roles and responsibilities across \r multiple governance levels. Public participation approaches can be \r designed to account for divergent perspectives in making difficult \r social choices, enhancing social learning, experimentation and \r innovation in developing locally appropriate SLR responses. Conflict \r resolution approaches have considerable potential to improve \r [...]"


id: 3001ab5464bb59df6942f64dba1af68c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5706
content:
"Sea level changes have been discussed throughout the various \r IPCC assessment reports as SLR is a key feature of climate change. \r Complex interactions between the oceans and ice sheets only \r recently have been recognised as important drivers of processes that \r can lead to rapid dynamical changes in the ice sheets. Understanding \r of basal melt below the ice shelves, ice calving processes and glacial \r hydrological processes was also limited. Projections of future sea \r level in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4; Lemke et al., 2007) \r were presented with the caveat that dynamical ice sheet processes \r were not accounted for, as our physical understanding of these \r processes was too rudimentary and no literature could be assessed \r (Bindoff et al., 2007). In AR5 (Church et al., 2013), a first attempt \r was made to quantify the dynamic contribution of the ice sheets, \r although still with modeling based on limited physcis, relying mainly \r [...]"


id: 9dfa04c548acf090897113e1b59011dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25030
content:
"[...] on an extrapolation of existing observations (Little et al., 2013) and \r a single process based case study (Bindschadler et al., 2013). Here \r the focus is on sea level changes around coastlines and low-lying \r islands, updating the GMSL rise by including a new estimate of the \r dynamic contribution of Antarctica. The mechanism driving past and \r contemporary sea level changes and episodic extremes of sea level is \r explained, and confidence in regional projections of future sea level \r over the 21st century and beyond is assessed. "


id: e9ca12661c8c79020718d081085594e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38479
content:
"As a consequence of natural and anthropogenic changes in the \r climate system, sea level changes are occurring on temporal and \r spatial scales that threaten coastal communities, cities, and low-lying \r islands. Sea level in this context means the time average height of \r the sea surface, thus eliminating short duration fluctuations like \r waves, surges and tides. GMSL rise refers to an increase in the \r volume of ocean water caused by warmer water having a lower \r density, and by the increase in mass caused by loss of land ice or a \r net loss in terrestrial water reservoirs. Spatial variations in volume \r changes are related to spatial changes in the climate. In addition, \r mass changes due to the redistribution of water on the Earth's \r surface and deformation of the lithosphere leads to a change in the \r Earth's rotation and gravitational field, producing distinct spatial \r patterns in regional sea level change. In addition to the regional \r [...]"


id: 576b1cdf2a7b6763a81d97f129969d49
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12644
content:
"[...] changes associated with contemporary ice and water redistribution, \r the solid Earth may cause sea level changes due to tectonics, mantle \r dynamics or glacial isostatic adjustment (see Section 4.2.1.5). These \r processes cause vertical land motion (VLM) and sea surface height \r changes at coastlines. Hence, RSL change is defined as the change in \r the difference in elevation between the land and the sea surface at a \r specific time and location (Farrell and Clark, 1976). Here, regional sea \r level refers to spatial scales of around 100 km, while local sea level \r refers to spatial scales smaller than 10 km. "


id: ab7cff2a21a0493a6516825d2b3a4a00
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27401
content:
"because of ice mass loss, and partly because of thermal expansion. \r Models and observations indicate that over recent decades, more \r than 90% of the increase in energy in the climate system has been \r stored in the ocean. Hence, thermal expansion provides insight into \r climate sensitivity (Church et al., 2013). Findings from sea level \r studies and the energy budget are consistent (Otto et al., 2013). As \r thermal expansion per degree is dependent on the temperature itself, \r heat uptake by a warm region has a larger impact on SLR than heat \r uptake by a cold region. This contributes to regional changes in sea \r level, which are also caused by the water temperature and salinity \r variations (e.g.,  Lowe and Gregory, 2006; Suzuki and Ishii, 2011; \r Bouttes et al., 2014; Saenko et al., 2015). Regional patterns in sea \r level change are also modified from the global average by oceanic \r and atmospheric (fluid) dynamics (Griffies and Greatbatch, 2012), \r [...]"


id: b5436059a746400caba29457f98a5e10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29127
content:
"[...] including trends in ocean currents, redistribution of temperature and \r salinity (sea water density), buoyancy, and atmospheric pressure. An \r analysis of these trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project \r Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs; Yin, 2012) \r demonstrates the potential for >15 cm of SLR by 2100 and >30 cm \r by 2300 (RCP8.5) along the east coast of the USA and Canada \r from fluid dynamical processes alone. However, Coupled Model \r Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCM simulations are not \r yet available for an updated analysis of these processes in SROCC."


id: 2d0a2804105fb0f505799650f8178e42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5197
content:
"Ice sheets gain or lose mass through changes in surface mass \r balance (SMB), the sum of accumulation and ablation controlled \r by atmospheric processes, the loss of ice to the ocean though \r melting of ice shelves, and by calving (breaking off of ice bergs) at \r marine-terminating ice fronts (see Chapter 3). Ice shelves, the floating \r extensions of grounded ice flowing into the ocean (Figure 4.4) do not \r directly contribute to sea level, but they play an important role in \r ice sheet dynamics by providing resistance to the seaward flow of \r the grounded ice upstream (Furst et al., 2016; Reese et al., 2018b). \r Ice shelves gain mass through the inflow of ice from the ice sheet, \r precipitation, and accretion at the ice-ocean interface. They lose \r mass through a combination of calving and by melting from below, \r especially where basal ice is in contact with warm water (Paolo et al., \r 2015, Khazendar et al., 2016). Calving rates at the terminus of marine \r [...]"


id: 26f13291479234eb0c2de6b8416bc4c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4010
content:
"[...] terminating ice fronts are governed by complex ice-mechanical \r processes, the internal strength of the ice, and interaction with \r ocean waves and tides (Benn et al., 2007; Bassis, 2011; Massom \r et al., 2018). Sub-ice shelf melts rates are controlled by ice-ocean \r interactions involving the large-scale circulation, more localised \r heat and fresh water fluxes, and micro (mm)-scale processes in \r the ice-ocean boundary layer (Gayen et al., 2015; Dinniman et al., \r 2016; Schodlok et al., 2016). Ice shelves are also impacted by surface \r processes. Where surface melt rates are high, ice shelves not only \r lose mass, they can collapse (hydrofracture) from flexural stresses \r caused by the movement of the meltwater and the deepening of \r water-filled crevasses (Banwell et al., 2013; Macayeal and Sergienko, \r 2013; Kuipers Munneke et al., 2014). These complex ice-ocean \r interactions, calving and hydrofracture processes remain difficult to \r [...]"


id: 9d6970ac72f4369c8333c68d87043165
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24931
content:
"adjustment (GIA) is causing uplift and a lowering of RSL that continues \r today. In other locations proximal to the previous ice load, and where \r a glacial forebulge once existed, the relaxing forebulge can contribute \r to a relative SLR, as currently being experienced along the coastline of \r the northeast United States. Water being syphoned to high latitudes \r as the peripheral bulges collapse leads to a widespread RSL fall in \r equatorial regions, while the overall loading of ocean crust by melt \r water can cause uplift of land areas near continental margins, far from \r the location of previous ice loading (Mitrovica and Milne, 2003; Milne \r and Mitrovica, 2008). Rates of modern VLM associated with these \r post-glacial processes are generally on the order of a few mm yr-1\r or less, but can exceed 1  cm yr-1 in some places. Because these \r gravity, rotation, and deformation (GRD) processes control spatial \r patterns of SLR from melting land ice, they need to be accounted for \r [...]"


id: f3f4d720b1bb49269b32a92910264f7e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40295
content:
"[...] in regional-to-local sea level assessments. GRD processes are also \r important for marine-based ice sheets themselves, because they \r locally reduce RSL at retreating grounding lines which can slow and \r reduce retreat (Gomez et al., 2015; see 4.3.3.1.2 and Cross-chapter \r Box 8 in Chapter 3; Larour et al., 2019). "


id: ace3f308e3e6043913e89b60045d0b6e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27659
content:
"Most estimates of peak GMSL during the mPWP range between 6 \r and 30 m higher than today (Miller et al., 2012; Rovere et al., 2014; \r Dutton et al., 2015a) but with deep uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box 5 \r in Chapter 1) and few constraints on the high end of the range. The \r large uncertainty is contributed by uncertain GIA corrections applied \r to palaeo shoreline indicators (Raymo et al., 2011; Rovere et al., 2014), \r dynamic topography, the vertical land surface motion associated \r with Earth's mantle flow (Rowley et al., 2013), and possible biases \r in geochemical records of ice volume derived from marine sediments \r (Raymo et al., 2018). Estimates of GMSL >10 m higher than today \r require a meltwater contribution from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in \r addition to the GIS and West Antarctic Ice Sheets (WAIS; Miller et al., \r 2012; Dutton et al., 2015a). Pliocene modelling studies appearing \r since AR5 (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013) demonstrate the potential \r [...]"


id: b33a2d5134aea933b9e15b825bdf478
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28774
content:
"[...] for substantial retreat of East Antarctic ice into deep submarine \r basins (Austermann and Mitrovica, 2015; Pollard et al., 2015; Aitken \r et al., 2016; DeConto and Pollard, 2016; Gasson et al., 2016; Golledge \r et al., 2019), as does emerging geological evidence from marine \r sediment cores recovered from the East Antarctic margin (Cook \r et al., 2013; Patterson et al., 2014; Bertram et al., 2018). However, \r the range of maximum Pliocene GMSL contributions from Antarctic \r modelling (Austermann and Mitrovica, 2015; Pollard et al., 2015; \r Yamane et al., 2015; DeConto and Pollard, 2016; Gasson et al., 2016) \r remains large (5.4-17.8 m), providing little additional constraint on \r the geological estimates. Land surface exposure measurements on \r sediment sourced from East Antarctica (Shakun et al., 2018) suggests \r Pliocene ice loss was limited to marine-based ice, where the bedrock \r is below sea level and possibly prone to marine ice sheet instabilities \r [...]"


id: 9711ac9327534511ea063e31c20c7db2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23770
content:
"[...] (Cross-Chapter box 8 in Chapter 3). The total potential contribution \r to GMSL rise from marine-based ice in Antarctica is ~22.5 m (Fretwell \r et al., 2013). Combined with the complete loss of the GIS, this could \r conceivably produce ~30  m of GMSL rise. However, this would \r require maximum retreat of GIS and AIS to be synchronous, which is \r not probable due to orbitally paced, inter-hemispheric asymmetries \r in Greenland and Antarctic climate (de Boer et al., 2017). As such, \r 25 m is found to be a reasonable upper bound on GMSL during the \r mPWP, but with low confidence.\r An updated estimate of maximum GMSL during the more geologically \r recent LIG ranges between 6-9 m higher than today (Dutton et al., \r 2015a). This is close to the values reported by a probabilistic analysis of \r globally distributed sea level indicators (Kopp et al., 2009), but slightly \r higher than AR5's central estimate of 6 m. Like the mid-Pliocene, the \r [...]"


id: 77cc04088ac6d11a60023ac78dac2ad6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18286
content:
"[...] LIG estimates also suffer from uncertainties in GIA corrections and \r dynamic topography. Dusterhus et al. (2016) applied data assimilation \r techniques including GIA corrections to the same LIG dataset used "


id: 350a98f442d463d5b1199f060d9d6f61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6577
content:
"Greenland and Antarctic climate change on these time scales is \r influenced by inter-hemispheric differences in polar amplification \r (Stap et al., 2018), changes in Earth's orbit, and long-term climate \r system processes. This complicates relationships between global \r mean temperature and ice sheet response. On Greenland, the \r magnitude of LIG summer warming and changes in ice sheet volume \r continue to be contested. Extreme summer warming of 6oC or more, \r reconstructed from ice cores (Dahl-Jensen et al., 2013; Landais et al., \r 2016; Yau et al., 2016) and lake archives (McFarlin et al., 2018) \r is in apparent conflict with a persistent, spatially extensive GIS \r reconstructed from ice cores and radar imaging (Dahl-Jensen et al., \r 2013). Maximum retreat of the GIS during the LIG varies widely \r among modelling studies, ranging from ~1 m to ~6 m (Helsen et al., \r 2013; Quiquet et al., 2013; Dutton et al., 2015a; Goelzer et al., 2016; \r [...]"


id: ef699c7e9fdec3696a7148317eb23b33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39493
content:
"[...] Yau et al., 2016); however, the models consistently indicate a small \r Greenland contribution to GMSL early in the interglacial, implying \r Antarctica was the dominant contributor to the early interglacial \r highstand of 6 +- 1.5 m, beginning around 129 ka (Dutton et al., \r 2015b). An early LIG loss of Antarctic ice is consistent with recent \r ice sheet modelling (DeConto and Pollard, 2016; Goelzer et al., \r 2016). Due to its bedrock configuration and susceptibility to marine \r ice sheet instabilities (Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3), the WAIS \r would have been especially vulnerable to subsurface ocean warming \r during the LIG (Sutter et al., 2016). However, most evidence of WAIS \r retreat during the LIG remains indirect (Steig et al., 2015) and firm \r geological evidence has yet to be uncovered. A recent analysis of East \r Antarctic sediments provides evidence of some ice retreat in Wilkes \r subglacial basin during the LIG (Wilson and Forsyth, 2018), but the \r [...]"


id: 24f7162015295a472f5f0add6603802b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3699
content:
"AR5 assessed the different strategies to estimate the 20th century \r GMSL changes. These strategies only accounted for the inhomogeneous \r space and time coverage of tide gauge data and for the VLM induced \r by GIA (Figure  4.5). Since AR5 two new approaches have been \r developed. The first one uses a Kalman smoother which combines tide \r gauge records with the spatial patterns associated with ocean dynamic \r change, change in land ice and GIA. It enables accounting for the \r inhomogeneous distribution of tide gauges and the VLM associated \r with both GIA and current land ice loss (Hay et al., 2015; Figure 4.5). \r The second approach uses ad hoc corrections to tide gauge records \r with an additional spatial pattern associated with changes in terrestrial \r water storage to account for the inhomogeneous distribution in tide \r gauges. It also accounts for the total VLM (Dangendorf et al., 2017; \r Figure  4.5). Both methods yield significantly lower GMSL changes \r [...]"


id: 567e3ae133f431b81aa22a690f417fc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12477
content:
"[...] over the period 1950-1970 than previous estimates, leading to \r long-term trends since 1900 that are smaller than previous estimates \r by 0.4 mm yr-1 (Figure 4.5). Different arguments including biases in \r the tide gauge datasets (Hamlington and Thompson, 2015), biases in \r the averaging technique and absence of VLM correction (Dangendorf \r et al., 2017), or in the spatial patterns associated with the sea level \r contributions (Hamlington et al., 2018) have been proposed to \r explain these smaller GMSL rates. There is no agreement yet on which \r is the primary reason for the differences and it is not clear whether \r all the reasons invoked can actually explain all the differences \r across reconstructions. As there is no clear evidence to discard any \r reconstruction, this assessment considers the ensemble of AR5 sea \r level reconstructions augmented by the two recent reconstructions \r from Hay et al. (2015) and Dangendorf et al. (2017) to evaluate the \r [...]"


id: d206f1e0983ffdde6b2bda80f3c404f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34302
content:
"[...] GMSL changes over the 20th century. On this basis, it is estimated \r that it is very likely that the long-term trend in GMSL estimated from \r tide gauge records is 1.5 (1.1-1.9) mm yr-1 between 1902 and 2010 \r for a total SLR of 0.16 (0.12-0.21) m (see also Table 4.1) over this \r period. This estimate is consistent with the AR5 assessment (but with \r an increased uncertainty range) and confirms that it is virtually certain\r that GMSL rates over the 20th century are several times as large as \r GMSL rates during the late Holocene (see 4.2.2.1). Over the 20th \r century the GMSL record also shows an acceleration (high confidence) \r as now four out of five reconstructions extending back to at least \r 1902 show a robust acceleration (Jevrejeva et al., 2008; Church and \r White, 2011; Ray and Douglas, 2011; Haigh et al., 2014b; Hay et al., \r 2015; Watson, 2016; Dangendorf et al., 2017). The estimates of the \r acceleration ranges between -0.002-0.019 mm yr-1 over 1902-2010 \r [...]"


id: fdc6551302b98a0777210152fef03783
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42009
content:
"Over the last two centuries, sea level observations have mostly \r relied on tide gauge measurements. These records, beginning around \r 1700 in some locations (Holgate et al., 2012; PSMSL, 2019), provide \r insight into historic sea level trends. Since 1992, the emergence of \r precise satellite altimetry has advanced our knowledge on GMSL and \r regional sea level changes considerably through a combination of \r near global ocean coverage and high spatial resolution. It has also \r enabled more detailed monitoring of land ice loss. Since 2002, high \r precision gravity measurements provided by the Gravity Recovery \r and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On missions \r show the loss of land ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and confirm \r independent assessments of ice sheet mass changes based on \r satellite altimetry (Shepherd et al., 2012; The Imbie team, 2018) \r and InSAR measurements combined with ice sheet SMB estimates \r [...]"


id: 245aaf83ead9688fad1da1bfafe38cf0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3585
content:
"[...] (Noel et al., 2018; Rignot et al., 2019). Since 2006, when the array \r of Argo profiling floats reached near-global coverage, it has been \r possible to get an accurate estimate of the ocean thermal expansion \r (down to 2000  m depth) and test the closure of the sea level \r budget. The combined analysis of the different observing systems \r that are available has improved significantly the understanding of \r the magnitude and relative contributions of the different processes \r causing sea level change. In particular, important progress has been \r achieved since AR5 on estimating and understanding the increasing \r contribution of the ice sheets to SLR."


id: 3dfc7eb17fd9d9817d476212d0fa9610
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8075
content:
"High precision satellite altimetry started in October 1992 with the \r launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason series of spacecraft. Since \r then, 11 satellite altimeters have been launched providing nearly \r global sea level measurements (up to +-82olatitude) over more \r than 25 years. Six groups (AVISO/CNES, SL_cci/ESA, University of \r Colorado, CSIRO, NASA/GSFC, NOAA; Nerem et al., 2010; Henry \r et al., 2014; Leuliette, 2015; Watson et al., 2015; Beckley et al., 2017; \r Legeais et al., 2018) provide altimetry-based GMSL time series. Since \r AR5, several studies using two independent approaches based on \r tide gauge records (Watson et al., 2015) and the sea level budget \r closure (Chen et al., 2017; Dieng et al., 2017) identified a drift of \r 1.5 (0.4-3.4) mm yr-1 in TOPEX A from January 1993 to February \r 1999. Accounting for this drift leads to a revised GMSL rate from \r satellite altimetry of 3.16 (2.79-3.53) for 1993-2015 (WCRP \r [...]"


id: 547b7413c8e4c214eb4618e6f9713d27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12137
content:
"[...] Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018; see Table 4.1) compared to \r 3.3  mm yr-1 (2.7-3.9) for 1993-2010 in AR5. Compared to AR5, \r the revised satellite altimetry GMSL estimates now show with high \r confidence an acceleration of 0.084 (0.059-0.090) mm yr-1 over \r 1993-2015 (5-95% uncertainty range; Watson et al., 2015; Nerem \r et al., 2018). This acceleration is due to an increase in Greenland \r mass loss since the 2000s (Chen et al., 2017; Dieng et al., 2017) and \r a slight increase in all other contributions probably partly due to \r the recovery from the Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991 (Fasullo \r et al., 2016) and partly due to increased GHG concentrations \r e.g.,  (Slangen et al., 2016; high confidence). The current sea level \r rise is 3.6 +- 0.3 mm yr-1 over 2006-2015 (90% confidence level). \r This is the highest rate measured by satellite altimetry (Ablain et al., \r 2019; medium confidence). Before the satellite altimetry era, the \r [...]"


id: fcd3f0cee56c5f0cf992cd7c725874dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41846
content:
"[...] highest rate of sea level rise recorded was reached during the period \r 1935-1944. It amounted 2.5 +- 0.7 mm yr-1 (estimate at the 90% \r confidence level from sea level reconstructions; Church and White, \r 2011; Ray and Douglas, 2011; Jevrejeva et al., 2008; Hay et al., 2015; \r Dangendorf et al., 2017). This is expected to be smaller than the \r current rate of sea level rise, making the current sea level rise the \r highest on instrumental record (medium confidence)."


id: 32a03c7d18ea926c84e55c25a3281d18
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6168
content:
"Historically, however, observational gaps exist and some ocean \r regions remain under-sampled to date (Sections 1.8.1.1 and \r 5.2.2.2.2; Figure  1.3; Appendix 1.A, Figure  1.1). Other factors also \r introduce uncertainty in estimates of thermal expansion like changes \r in instrumentation, systematic instrumental errors, changes in \r the quality control of the data and the mapping method used to \r produce regular grids (Section 5.2.2.2.2; Palmer et al., 2010). In the \r upper 700 m, the largest sources of uncertainty for estimates of \r global mean thermal expansion from 1970 to 2004 are the choice \r of mapping methods (Boyer et al., 2016), followed by the choice \r of bias correction for the bathythermographic observations (Cheng \r et al., 2016; Section 5.2.2.2.2). From 2006 onwards, the uncertainty \r is considerably reduced (Roemmich et al., 2015; von Schuckmann \r et al., 2016; Wijffels et al., 2016), because the Argo array reached \r [...]"


id: c4058efea88e27811b384bcc3b1de55b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31770
content:
"[...] its targeted near-global (up to +-60olatitude) coverage for the upper \r 2000 m in November 2007 (Riser et al., 2016; Section 5.2.2.2.2)."


id: 8de3f5e322d3ece70e94f9328ace51c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22155
content:
"Since AR5, in a community effort, the (WCRP Global Sea Level Budget \r Group, 2018) revisited the global mean thermal expansion estimates \r based on observations only. On the basis of a full-depth 13-member \r ensemble of global mean thermal expansion time series developed \r with the latest data and corrections available, they estimated that \r the global thermal expansion was 1.40 (1.08-1.72) mm yr-1 for \r 2006-2015, 1.36 (0.96-1.76) mm yr-1 for 1993-2015 (see Table 4.1). \r While the relative contribution of the upper 300 m did not change \r (~70%) between 2006-2015 and 1993-2015, the 700-2000  m \r contribution increased around 10% over the Argo decade (2006-\r 2015), when observations for that depth interval soared (Figure 1.3; \r Appendix 1.A, Figure 1.1). This suggests that observed changes for \r 700-2000 m may have been underestimated for 1993-2005. Before \r 1993, estimates are based on a smaller ensemble of 4 datasets in \r which no thermal expansion is assumed below 2000 m because of \r [...]"


id: e3aa27395297bd1f11b3109d8776d32b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37348
content:
"[...] lack of data (see Section 5.2.2.2.2 for more details). This ensemble \r shows a thermal expansion linear rate of 0.89 (0.84-0.94) mm yr-1 \r for 1970-2015 (see Table 4.1)."


id: 572f5a9c1ecf0a9e9c73b12ebbd12b36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12591
content:
"simulations forced by only natural radiative forcing. Then it has been \r used to correct the historical simulations forced with the full 20th \r century forcing (Slangen et al., 2016; Slangen et al., 2017b). The \r resulting ensemble mean of simulated thermal expansion provides \r a good fit to the observations within the uncertainty ranges of both \r models and observations (Slangen et al., 2017b; Cheng et al., 2019; \r Table  4.1). The spread, which is essentially due to uncertainty in \r radiative forcing and uncertainty in the modelled climate sensitivity \r and ocean heat uptake efficiency (Melet and Meyssignac, 2015), is \r still larger than the observational uncertainties (Gleckler et al., 2016; \r Cheng et al., 2017; Table 4.1). Compared to AR5, the availability of \r improved observed and modelled estimates of thermal expansion and \r the good agreement between both confirm the high confidence level \r in the simulated thermal expansion using climate models and the high \r [...]"


id: d25c59cf1e89f26203e95ca20aed59c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34364
content:
"Frequent observations of ice sheet mass changes have only been \r available since the advent of space observations (see Section 3.3.1). \r In the pre-satellite era, mass balance was geodetically reconstructed \r only for the GIS (Kjeldsen et al., 2015). These geodetic reconstructions \r empirically constrain the contribution of the GIS to SLR between \r 1900 and 1983 to 17.2 (10.7-23.2; Kjeldsen et al., 2015). During the \r satellite era, three approaches have been developed to estimate ice \r sheet mass balance: 1) Mass loss is estimated by direct measurements \r of ice sheet height changes with satellite laser or radar altimetry in \r combination with climatological/glaciological models for firn density \r and compaction, 2) the input-output method combines measurements \r of ice flow velocities estimated from satellite (synthetic aperture \r radar or optical imagery) across key outlets with estimates of net \r surface balance derived from ice thickness data, 3) space gravimetry \r [...]"


id: 53134259836d132d24b39e69f0be0692
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11883
content:
"[...] data yields direct estimate of the mass changes by inversion of the \r anomalies in the gravity field (see Section 3.3.1 for more details). AR5 \r concluded that the three space-based methods give consistent results. \r They agree in showing that the rate of SLR due to the GIS and AIS' \r contributions has increased since the early 1990s. Since AR5, up-to\u0002date observations confirm this statement with increased confidence \r for both ice sheets (Rignot et al., 2019; see Section  3.3.1). The \r assessment of the literature since AR5 made in Section 3.3.1 shows \r that the contribution from Greenland to SLR over 2012-2016 (0.68 \r (0.64-0.72) mm yr-1) was similar to the contribution over 2002-2011 \r (0.73 (0.67-0.79) mm yr-1) and extremely likely greater than over 1992-\r 2001 (0.02 (0.21-0.25) mm yr-1). The contribution from Antarctica over \r 2012-2016 (0.55 (0.48-0.62) mm yr-1) was extremely likely greater \r than over the 2002-2011 period (0.23 (0.16-0.30) mm yr-1) and \r [...]"


id: 518dad87a0b7ea186781a759f32793fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11629
content:
"[...] likely greater than over the period 1992-2001 (0.14 (0.12-0.16); see \r Section 3.3.1 for more details). "


id: 2a6212a2b5055df31104b780a355c144
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4681
content:
"The ocean mass changes correspond to the sum of land ice and \r terrestrial water storage changes. Since 2002, the GRACE and \r GRACE follow-on missions provide direct estimates of the ocean \r mass changes and thus they provide an independent estimate of \r the sum of land ice and terrestrial water storage contributions to \r sea level. Since AR5, GRACE-based estimates of the ocean mass \r rates are increasingly consistent (WCRP Global Sea Level Budget \r Group, 2018) because of the extended length of GRACE missions' \r observations (over 15 years), the improved understanding of data \r and methods for addressing GRACE limitations (e.g., noise filtering, \r leakage correction and low-degree spherical harmonics estimates), \r and the improved knowledge of geophysical corrections applied \r to GRACE data (e.g., GIA). The most recent estimates (Dieng et al., \r 2015b; Reager et al., 2016; Rietbroek et al., 2016; Chambers et al., \r 2017; Blazquez et al., 2018; Uebbing et al., 2019) report a global \r [...]"


id: 8ceb284e1f14627e0c0d4caed572dc53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21975
content:
"[...] ocean mass increase of 1.7 (1.4-2.0) mm yr-1 over 2003-2015 (see \r also Table  4.1). The uncertainty arises essentially from differences \r in the inversion method to compute the ocean mass (Chen et al., \r 2013; Jensen et al., 2013; Johnson and Chambers, 2013; Rietbroek \r et al., 2016), uncertainties in the geocentre motion and uncertainty \r in the GIA correction (Blazquez et al., 2018; Uebbing et al., 2019). The \r consistency between estimates of the global mean ocean mass on a \r monthly time scale has also increased since AR5."


id: 4465e81ca5827cd91e617080c1606b9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9269
content:
"available) and 2006-2015 (when GRACE data is available in addition \r to satellite altimetry and when the Argo network reaches a near-global \r coverage). The budget of GMSL rise is also assessed with sea level \r contributions simulated by climate models over the same periods \r (Table 4.1, Figure 4.5). The periods 1993-2015 and 2006-2015 are \r only 23 and 10 years long respectively, short enough so that they can \r be affected by internal climate variability. Therefore, it is not expected \r that observations over these periods will be precisely reproduced by \r climate model historical experiments. For the contribution from land \r water storage, the estimated effect of direct human intervention \r was used, neglecting climate-related variations until 2002 (Ngo-Duc \r et al., 2005). From 2002 to 2015, total land water storage estimated \r with GRACE was used. In general, historical simulations of climate \r models end in 2005. Historical simulations were extended here to \r [...]"


id: 8f0421709ab0717f623df8804809fb93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22359
content:
"[...] 2015 using the RCP8.5 scenario. This choice of RCP scenario is not \r critical for the simulated sea level, as the different scenarios only \r start to diverge significantly after the year 2030 (Church et al., 2013)."


id: 1d8622a6f23529e850d005fadd4d9f89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2372
content:
"4.2.2.2.5 Contributions from water storage on land\r Water is stored on land not only in the form of ice but snow, surface \r water, soil moisture and groundwater. Temporal changes in land \r water storage, defined as all forms of water stored on land excluding \r land ice, contribute to observed changes in ocean mass and thus sea \r level on annual to centennial time scales (Doll et al., 2016; Reager \r et al., 2016; Hamlington et al., 2017; Wada et al., 2017). They are \r caused by both climate variability and direct human interventions, \r at the multi-decadal to centennial time scales. Over the past century, \r the main cause for land water storage changes are the groundwater \r depletion and impoundment of water behind dams in reservoirs \r (Doll et al., 2016; Wada et al., 2016). While the rate of groundwater \r depletion and thus its contribution to SLR increased during the 20th \r century and up to today (Wada et al., 2016), its effect on sea level \r [...]"


id: c74c527706b59f4da5db98dd4da041f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32382
content:
"[...] was more than balanced by the increase in land water storage due to \r dam construction between 1950 and 2000 (Wada et al., 2016). Since \r about 2000, based on hydrological models, the combined effect of \r both processes is a positive contribution to SLR (Wada et al., 2016). \r Decreased water storage in lakes, wetlands and soils due to human \r activities are less important for ocean mass changes (Wada et al., \r 2016). Overall, the integrated effects of the direct human intervention \r on land hydrology have reduced land water storage during the last \r decade, increasing the rate of SLR by 0.15-0.24  mm yr-1 (Wada \r et al., 2016; Wada et al., 2017; Scanlon et al., 2018; WCRP Global \r Sea Level Budget Group, 2018). Over periods of a few decades, \r land water storage was affected significantly by climate variability \r (Dieng et al., 2015a; Reager et al., 2016; Dieng et al., 2017). Net \r land water storage change driven by both climate and direct human \r [...]"


id: 25604b89849118f036afbae3bf4a88e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3764
content:
"[...] interventions can be determined based on GRACE observations and \r global hydrological modelling. They indicate different estimates of \r the rate of SLR. Over the period 2002-2014 GRACE-based estimates \r of the net land water storage (i.e.,  not including glaciers) show a \r negative contribution to sea level (e.g., Scanlon et al., 2018) resulting \r in the negative value after 2006 in Table 1while hydrological models \r determined a slightly positive one. The reasons for this difference \r between estimates are not elucidated. There is scientific consensus \r that uncertainties of both net land water storage contribution to sea \r level and its individual contributions remain high (WCRP Global Sea \r Level Budget Group, 2018). The differences in estimates and the lack \r of multiple consistent studies give low confidence in the net land \r water storage contribution to current SLR."


id: 9756bc911c4791a20335472be2f0c678
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23827
content:
"For 1993-2015 and 2006-2015, the observed GMSL rise is consistent \r within uncertainties with the sum of the estimated observed \r contributions (Table 4.1). Over the period 1993-2015 the two largest \r terms are the ocean thermal expansion (accounting for 43% of the \r observed GMSL rise) and the glacier mass loss (accounting for a further \r 20%). Compared to AR5, the extended observations corrected for the \r TOPEX-A drift (see Section  4.2.2.1.2) allow us now to identify an \r acceleration in the observed SLR over 1993-2015 and to attribute this \r acceleration mainly to Greenland ice loss along with an acceleration in \r Antarctic ice loss (Velicogna et al., 2014; Harig and Simons, 2015; Chen \r et al., 2017; Dieng et al., 2017; Yi et al., 2017; see also Sections 4.2.2.2.2, \r 4.2.2.3.4, 3.3.1). Since 2006, land ice, collectively from glaciers and \r the ice sheets has become the most important contributor to GMSL \r rise over the thermal expansion with mountain glaciers contributing \r [...]"


id: ee5a7fcb75486ce751759e12d103ce09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39308
content:
"[...] 20% and ice sheets 33% (see Table 4.1). Over the periods 1993-2015, \r the sum of the observed sea level contributions is consistent with the \r total observed sea level within uncertainties at monthly-scales (not \r shown, e.g., Dieng et al., 2017). This is also true for the period 2006-\r 2015, when uncertainties are significantly smaller. This agreement \r at monthly time scales represents a significant advance since the \r AR5 in physical understanding of the causes of past GMSL change. \r It provides an improved basis for the evaluation of models. Given \r these elements there is high confidence that the current observing \r system is capable of resolving decadal to multidecadal changes \r in GMSL and its components (with an uncertainty of <0.7 mm yr-1\r at decadal and longer time scales, see Table  4.1 and for example, \r WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018). However, despite this \r advance since AR5 there are still no comprehensive observations of \r [...]"


id: a963a8a56ba84e96d9952535e49e2095
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27025
content:
"[...] ocean thermal expansion below 2000 m, in regions covered by sea ice \r and in marginal seas. The understanding of glacier mass loss can be \r improved at regional scale and the understanding of the land water \r storage contribution is still limited. Thus, for smaller changes in sea \r level of the order of a few tenths of a mm yr-1 at decadal time scales \r and shorter time scales there is medium confidence in the capability of \r the current observing system to resolve them (e.g., WCRP Global Sea \r Level Budget Group, 2018).\r Before 1992, observations are not sufficient to confidently estimate \r the ice sheet mass balance and before 1970, the space and time "


id: 459a34fd64fb4fd27023edf60c211eb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9463
content:
"Over the Pacific, the surface wind anomalies responsible for the \r sea level spatio-temporal variability are associated with the ENSO, \r Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation \r modes (Hamlington et al., 2013; Moon et al., 2013; Palanisamy et al., \r 2015; Han et al., 2017). In the Indian Ocean they are associated with \r the ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes (Nidheesh et al., \r 2013; Han et al., 2014; Thompson et al., 2016; Han et al., 2017). In \r particular, the PDO is responsible for most of the intensified SLR that \r has been observed in the western tropical Pacific Ocean since the \r 1990s (Moon et al., 2013; Han et al., 2014; Thompson and Mitchum, \r 2014). Several studies suggested that in addition to the PDO signal, \r warming of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans enhanced surface \r easterly trade winds and thus also contributes to the intensified SLR \r in the western tropical Pacific (England et al., 2014; Hamlington et al., \r [...]"


id: 334e4c0c0602d0b7bcfb655cb3f9215a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6277
content:
"Over the Atlantic, the regional sea level variability at interannual to \r multi-decadal time scales, is generated by surface wind anomalies \r and heat fluxes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; \r Han et al., 2017) and also by ocean heat transport due to changes \r in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC; McCarthy \r et al., 2015). Both mechanisms are not independent as heat fluxes \r and wind stress anomalies associated with NAO can induce changes \r in the AMOC (Schloesser et al., 2014; Yeager and Danabasoglu, \r 2014). In the Southern Ocean, the sea level variability is dominated \r by the SAM influence in particular in the Indian and Pacific sectors. \r The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influence becomes weaker \r equator-wards in these sectors while the influence of PDO, ENSO and \r IOD increases (Frankcombe et al., 2015). In the southern ocean, the \r zonal asymmetry in westerly winds associated to the SAM, generates \r [...]"


id: b6330c0941ccf6a850d4fb2fdda4b2d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29280
content:
"[...] convergent and divergent transport in the Antarctic Circumpolar \r Current which may have contributed to the regional asymmetry of \r decadal sea level variations during most of the twentieth century \r (Thompson and Mitchum, 2014)."


id: cc25096cf296373ceca267a6ab87fa92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33234
content:
"In terms of interannual to multi-decadal variability, there is a \r general agreement between the simulated regional sea level and \r tide gauge records, over the period 1900-2015 (see inset figures in \r Figure 4.6). The relatively large, short-term oscillations in observed \r sea level (black lines in insets in Figure 4.6), which are due to the \r natural internal climate variability, are included in general within the \r modelled internal variability of the climate system represented by \r the blue shaded area (5-95% uncertainty). But, as for GMSL, climate \r models tend to systematically underestimate the observed sea level \r trends from tide gauge records, particularly in the first half of the \r 20th century. This underestimation is explained by a bias identified in \r modelled Greenland SMB, and glacier ice loss around Greenland in the \r early 20th century (see Section 4.2.2.2.6; Slangen et al., 2017b). The \r correction of this bias improves the agreement between the spatial \r [...]"


id: 3a81ea42372da50092b0d473f23c2c0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7497
content:
"[...] variability in sea level trends from observations and from climate \r models (see Figure  4.6). Climate models indicate that the spatial \r variability in sea level trends observed by tide-gauge records over the \r 20th century is dominated by the GIA contribution and the thermal \r expansion contribution over 1900-2015. Locally all contributions \r to sea level changes are important as any contribution can cause "


id: 2f6ba1895a880c37d68474092b98239c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5607
content:
"found for the Gulf of Mexico coast and along the US east coast (Wahl \r et al., 2014; Wahl and Plant, 2015). These authors found that high \r waters have increased twice as much as one would expect from \r long-term SLR alone, because of additional changes in the seasonal \r cycle, yielding a 30% increase in risk of flooding. Such effects are \r likely to be highly dependent on the local conditions. For example, \r using WAVEWATCH III, TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry tide model data \r and atmospheric forcing physically downscaled using Delft3D-WAVE \r and Delft3D-FLOW in what they call the Coastal Storm Modeling \r System (CoSMoS), Vitousek et al. (2017) were able to detect local \r inundation hazards (at a scale of hundreds of metres) across regions \r along the Californian coast. Similarly, Castrucci and Tahvildari (2018) \r simulated the impact of SLR along the Mid-Atlantic region in the \r USA. A study for the Maldives shows that the contribution of wave \r [...]"


id: be5e01e0a56f721897ac034adaae0677
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30756
content:
"Since the local coastal sea level (scale ~10 km) is affected by global, \r regional (scale ~100 km) and coastal scale features and processes like \r anthropogenic subsidence, it may differ substantially from the regional \r sea level. At the coast, the sea level change is additionally affected \r by wave run up, tidal level, wind forcing, sea level pressure (SLP), the \r dominant modes of climate variability, seasonal climatic periodicities, \r mesoscale eddies, changes in river flow, as well as anthropogenic \r subsidence (see also Box 4.1). These local contributions, combined \r with sea level events generated by storm surges and tides result in \r anomalous conditions (ESL) which last for a short time in contrast \r to the gradual increase over time from for instance ice mass loss. \r Flood risk due to ESL is exacerbated due to its interaction with RSL \r and hence physical vulnerability assessments combine uncertainties \r around ESL and RSL, both in terms of contemporary assessments and \r [...]"


id: 2bbfa30a739dfbe352e6798ddcdb2174
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4957
content:
"[...] future projections (Little et al., 2015b; Vousdoukas, 2016; Vousdoukas \r et al., 2016; Wahl et al., 2017). Changes in mean sea level have been \r dealt with in previous sections (e.g.,  Section  4.2.2.2.6). Here the \r focus is on some of the components of ESL that have been assessed \r in combination with changes in RSL. Church et al. (2013) concluded \r that change in sea level extremes is very likely to be caused by a \r RSL increase, and that storminess and surges will contribute towards \r these extremes; however, it was noted that there was low confidence\r in region-specific projections as there was only a limited number of \r studies with a poor geographical coverage available."


id: 33fb451eb111957e6c3c662dfc078013
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6391
content:
"Deltas are formed by the accumulation of unconsolidated river born \r sediments and porous organic material, both of which are particularly \r prone to compaction. It is the compaction which causes a drop in \r land elevation that increases the rate of local SLR above what would \r be observed along a static coastline or one where only climatological \r forced processes control the RSL. Under stable deltaic conditions, \r the accumulation of fluvially-sourced surficial sediment and organic \r matter offsets this natural subsidence (Syvitski and Saito, 2007); \r however, in many cases this natural process of delta construction has \r been disturbed by reductions in fluvial sediment supply via upstream \r dams and fluvial channelisation (Vorosmarty et al., 2003; Syvitski \r and Saito, 2007; Syvitski et al., 2009; Luo et al., 2017). Further, \r the extraction of fluids and gas that fill the pore space of deltaic \r sediments and provide support for overlying material has significantly \r [...]"


id: 8e15ae2d80ca10cdd87f4f8c1f3d266c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22192
content:
"[...] increased the rate of compaction and resultant anthropogenic \r subsidence along many populated deltas (Higgins, 2016). In addition, \r Nicholls (2011) pointed to anthropogenic subsidence by the weight \r of buildings in megacities in South-East Asia."


id: 2aea68c2d19bd5d6d23a9e6113a3ab78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4786
content:
"Although ESL is experienced episodically by definition, Marcos et al. \r (2015) examined the long-term behaviour of storm surge models and \r detected decadal and multidecadal variations in storm surge that are \r not related to changes in RSL. They found that, although 82% of their \r observed time series showed synchronous patterns at regional scales, \r the pattern tended to be non-linear, implying that it would be difficult \r to infer future behaviour unless the physical basis for the responses \r was understood. An analysis of the relative contributions of SLR and \r ESL due to storminess showed that in the US Pacific northwest since \r the early 1980s, increases in wave height and period have had a larger \r effect on coastal flooding and erosion than RSL (Ruggiero, 2012) \r since the early 1980s. This is also true in other regions distributed \r over the entire globe (Melet et al., 2016; Melet et al., 2018). Changes \r since 1990 in the sea level harmonics and seasonal phases and \r [...]"


id: 39556538dd4df4348c27ce1e03f46abe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7299
content:
"Slangen et al. (2016) reconstructed GMSL from 1900 to 2005 based \r on CMIP5 model simulations separating individual components \r of radiative climate forcing and combining the contributions of \r thermosteric sea level change with glacier and ice sheet mass loss. \r They found that the naturally caused sea level change, including the \r long-term adjustment of sea level to climate change preceding 1900, \r caused 67 +- 23% of observed change from 1900 to 1950, but only \r 9 +- 18% between 1970 and 2005. Anthropogenic forcing was found \r to have caused 15 +- 55% of observed sea level change during 1900-\r 1950, but 69 +- 31% during 1970-2005. The sum of all contributions \r explains only 74 +- 22% of observed GMSL change during the period \r 1900-2005 considering the mean of the reconstructions of Church \r and White (2011), Ray and Douglas (2011), Jevrejeva et al. (2014b) \r and Hay et al. (2015). However, the budget could be closed taking \r [...]"


id: 7d4e37324309f79ea5536fcfcff36735
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19221
content:
"Coupled climate models can be applied on century time scales, to \r provide estimates of the steric (temperature and salinity effects \r on sea water density) and ocean dynamical (ocean circulation) \r components of sea level change, both globally and regionally. \r However, the glacier and ice sheet component are calculated off-line \r based on temperature and precipitation changes. In the AR5 report, \r changes in the SMB of glaciers and ice sheet were calculated \r from the global surface air temperature. In addition, GCMs also \r resolve climate variability related to changes in precipitation and \r evaporation. These changes are used to calculate short duration sea \r level changes (Cazenave and Cozannet, 2014; Hamlington et al., \r 2017). With various degrees of success those models capture ENSO, \r PDO and other modes of variability (e.g., Yin et al., 2009; Zhang \r and Church, 2012), which affect sea level through redistributions \r [...]"


id: 5d9a114da02c1768040822dd153e59cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13756
content:
"[...] of energy and salt in the ocean on slightly longer time scales. \r Off-line temperature and precipitation fields can be dynamically or \r statistically downscaled to match the high spatial resolution required \r for ice sheets and glaciers, but serious limitations remain. This \r deficiency limits adequate representation of potentially important \r feedbacks between changes in ice sheet geometry and climate, for \r example through fresh water and iceberg production that impact on \r ocean circulation and sea ice, which can have global consequences \r (Lenaerts et al., 2016; Donat-Magnin et al., 2017). Another limitation \r is the lack of coupling with the solid Earth which controls the ice \r sheet evolution (Whitehouse et al., 2019). Dynamics of the interaction \r of ice streams with bedrock and till at the ice base remain difficult \r to model due to lack of direct observations. Nevertheless, several \r new ice sheet models have been generated over the last few years, \r [...]"


id: b90b98de0b4ab27c54f21d97202bffe7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29759
content:
"[...] particularly for Antarctica (Section 4.2.3.1) focusing on the dynamic \r contribution of the ice sheet to sea level change, which remains the \r key uncertainty in future projections (Church et al., 2013), particularly \r beyond 2050 (Kopp et al., 2014; Nauels et al., 2017b; Slangen et al., \r 2017a; Horton et al., 2018). \r Information beyond that provided by climate models is needed \r to describe local and RSL changes. Geodynamic models are used to \r calculate RSL changes due to changes in ice mass in the past and future. \r This includes solid Earth deformation, gravitational and rotational "


id: 390040adb8b8a046cd91c1e119ef37fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7234
content:
"The GIS is currently losing mass at roughly twice the pace of the \r AIS (see Chapter  3 and Table  4.1). About 60% of the mass loss \r between 1991 and 2015 has been attributed to increasingly negative \r SMB from surface melt and runoff on the lower elevations of the \r ice sheet margin. Ice dynamical changes and increased discharge \r of marine-terminating glaciers account for the remaining 40% of \r mass loss (Csatho et al., 2014; Enderlin, 2014; van den Broeke et al., \r 2016). The ability of firn on Greenland to retain meltwater until it \r refreezes has diminished markedly since the late 1990s, especially \r in lower elevations and on peripheral ice caps (Noel et al., 2017). \r Patterns of surface melt on Greenland are highly dependent on \r regional atmospheric patterns (Bevis et al., 2019), adding uncertainty \r to future projections of SMB. Melt-albedo feedbacks associated with \r darkening of the ice surface from ponded water, changes in snow and \r [...]"


id: 98b13768ebc4190afd562b2c21a6cc56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24083
content:
"[...] firn properties, and accumulation of impurities are also important, \r because they can strongly enhance surface melt (Tedesco et al., 2016; \r Ryan et al., 2018; Trusel et al., 2018; Ryan et al., 2019). These processes \r are not fully captured by most Greenland-scale models which is an \r important deficiency, because surface processes tend to dominate \r uncertainty in future GIS model projections (e.g.,  Edwards et al., \r 2014; Aschwanden et al., 2019). Increases in meltwater and changes \r in the basal hydrologic regime, once thought to have a possible \r destabilising effect on the ice sheet (Zwally et al., 2002), have been \r linked with recent reductions in ice velocity in western Greenland. On \r decadal time scales the effect of meltwater on ice dynamics are now \r assessed to be small (van de Wal et al., 2015; Flowers, 2018), which \r is supported by ice sheet model experiments (Shannon et al., 2013). "


id: 264628597c4c59fb175346d449e526d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3903
content:
"climate-driven uncertainty in 21st century projections of the GIS \r as emphasised by Edwards et al. (2014). It was found that central \r estimates and ranges for RCP8.5 simulated by Furst et al. (2015), Calov \r et al. (2018), and Golledge et al. (2019) are in reasonable agreement \r with previous multi-model results (Bindschadler et al., 2013) and \r the assessment of AR5 (Church et al., 2013), which reported a likely\r RCP8.5 range of Greenland's contribution to GMSL between 7-21 cm \r by 2100 (Table 4.2.). The GIS simulations provided by Vizcaino et al. \r (2015), using a relatively course-resolution ice model (10 km) with \r SMB forcing provided by a single GCM, estimate much less ice loss \r than other recent studies. Their GMSL projections (Vizcaino et al., \r 2015) also fall below the likely range of AR5 estimates. In contrast, \r the study by Aschwanden et al. (2019) shows a significantly higher \r contribution to GMSL than the other studies, especially under RCP8.5 \r [...]"


id: a7a0c5d43312c546c364cb1b8d9f3fc0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26703
content:
"[...] and beyond 2100 (see 4.2.3.5). This may be due to their SMB forcing, \r which is based on spatially uniform warming derived from future \r CMIP5 GCM climatologies averaged over the entire Greenland region. \r As noted by earlier work (e.g., Van de Wal and Wild, 2001; Gregory \r and Huybrechts, 2006), this approach can overestimate melt rates \r in the ablation zone, which could account for their higher projected \r ice loss. It is noted that the process-based estimates of future GMSL \r rise from Greenland found in Aschwanden et al. (2019) are closest \r to those from an updated, structured judgement of glaciological \r and modelling experts (Bamber et al., 2019). Calculations from the \r expert elicitation (Bamber et al., 2019) result in higher estimates \r of Greenland ice loss than any of the process-based studies, with a \r mean and standard deviation of 33 +- 30 cm and a 17-83% range \r of 10-60 cm by 2100, following a climate scenario comparable to \r [...]"


id: c2b22095df3f08fe9c136d3ee9d847dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31535
content:
"[...] RCP8.5. The combination of the new process-based studies produces \r central estimates (Table  4.2) consistent with the likely ranges for \r Greenland's contribution to GMSL in 2100 assessed by AR5."


id: 120c2fbedb876328fb23ff86a71e505c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 365
content:
"Greenland-scale ice sheet modelling since AR5 (Edwards et al., \r 2014; Furst et al., 2015; Vizcaino et al., 2015; Calov et al., 2018; \r Golledge et al., 2019; Aschwanden et al., 2019) has built upon earlier \r work by coupling the ice models with regional climate models and \r using multiple climate and ice sheet models within single studies \r (Edwards et al., 2014). Recent modelling studies use higher-order \r representations of ice flow (Furst et al., 2015), include more explicit \r representations of ice sheet processes including subglacial hydrology \r (Calov et al., 2018), run the models at higher resolution and with \r updated boundary conditions (Aschwanden et al., 2019), and account \r for two-way coupling between the ice sheet and the global ocean \r (Vizcaino et al., 2015; Golledge et al., 2019). Among these studies, \r Furst et al. (2015), Vizcaino et al. (2015), and Aschwanden et al. \r (2019) provide projections following RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 \r [...]"


id: f3db2c7eb4066a6dfc7ca2a95ef35d74
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40283
content:
"[...] emissions scenarios. Calov et al. (2018) and Golledge et al. (2019) \r did not consider RCP2.6. Edwards et al. (2014) used the Special \r Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario which isn't \r directly comparable to the other studies assessed here, but they do \r provide a rigorous analysis of uncertainty contributed by different \r climate forcings, varying simplifications of ice flow equations and \r height-SMB feedbacks. "


id: a0cbb95d5e99922f2e9182407f598e68
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25501
content:
"Table 4.2 | Estimates of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL; cm) in 2100 reported by process-based modelling studies including \r the effects of both surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics published since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5). Only model results including elevation-SMB \r feedback are shown. All values are reported as the contribution to GMSL in 2100 relative to 2000, with the exception of Aschwanden et al. (2019) who report values \r relative to 2008. The median estimate for comparison with AR5 is based on the average of the three simulations in Calov et al. (2018) using different General Climate \r Models (GCMs), combined with the central estimates from the other studies. RMSD (Furst et al., 2015) is the Root Mean Squared Deviation from their ensemble median. \r The range reported by Aschwanden et al. (2019) refers to the 16-84% interval of a 500 member ensemble with varying model physical parameters. RCP is Representative \r [...]"


id: 663c8f3084eeb932c0d5433ccb03046f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15252
content:
"dynamic ice discharge to the ocean as the ice sheet margin thins and \r the termini of outlet glaciers retreat from the coast (Goelzer et al., \r 2013; Lipscomb et al., 2013). Greenland's bedrock geography and the \r limited, direct access of thick interior ice to the ocean ultimately limits \r the potential pace of GMSL rise from the GIS. Figure 4.7 illustrates \r a fundamental difference between Greenland and Antarctica. In \r Greenland, most of the bedrock at the ice sheet margin is above sea \r level (land terminating), with relatively narrow (generally <10  km \r wide) outlet glaciers reaching the ocean. In contrast, Antarctica \r has extensive areas with subglacial bedrock below sea level, and \r thick marine-terminating ice in direct contact with the open ocean. \r Recent subglacial mapping and mass conservation calculations since \r AR5 (Morlighem et al., 2014; Morlighem et al., 2017) revise earlier \r bathymetric maps under and around the ice sheet, and reveal deeper \r [...]"


id: bd0186b2adb9bc5b76dbea460ae07f93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30500
content:
"[...] and more extensive valley networks extending into the GIS interior \r than previously known. Accurate subglacial topography is important \r for modelling individual Greenland outlet glaciers (Aschwanden \r et al., 2016; Morlighem et al., 2016); however, the importance of \r these revised bedrock boundary conditions for the broader ice sheet \r has yet to be fully tested. Based on the limited cross sectional area of \r subglacial valleys and outlet glaciers on Greenland (Figure 4.7) and \r the results of Nick et al. (2013), the effects of uncertain bathymetric \r boundary conditions are assessed to be small relative to the \r uncertainties in future SMB forcing (medium confidence)."


id: 1e60b32a19fdc3416ca6eeb574721bc1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2544
content:
"Unlike Greenland, most of the AIS margin terminates in the ocean. The \r AIS also contains almost eight times more glacial ice above flotation \r than Greenland, and nearly half of this ice is marine-based, that is, \r grounded on bedrock hundreds of metres (or more) below sea level \r (Figure  4.7; Fretwell et al., 2013). In places where the subglacial \r bedrock slopes downward away from the coast (reverse-sloped), \r the marine-based glacial ice is susceptible to dynamical instabilities \r (Weertman, 1974; Schoof, 2007b; Pollard et al., 2015) that can \r contribute rapid ice loss (Cross-Chapter Box  8 in Chapter  3). The \r instabilities can be triggered by the loss or thinning of ice shelves \r through changes in the surrounding ocean and increased sub-ice melt \r rates and changes in the overlying atmosphere affecting SMB and \r surface meltwater production. Much progress has been made since \r AR5 in the understanding of these processes, but their representation in \r [...]"


id: 441ba51f6d1408063ba644a696a2bd2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9222
content:
"[...] continental-scale models continue to be heavily parameterised in most \r cases. Complex interactions between the ice sheet, ocean, atmosphere \r and underlying bedrock also remain difficult to simulate collectively. "


id: a35d8d1934fc2de05351fe84147f393c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25948
content:
"Like Thwaites, the neighbouring Pine Island Glacier (PIG) has also \r been thinning and retreating at an accelerating rate in recent decades, \r in response to incursions of warm CDW in the waters underlying the \r glacier's ice shelf. These incursions of CDW are controlled in part by \r sea floor bathymetry and climatic variability (Dutrieux et al., 2014). \r Favier et al. (2014) used three models with differing formulations to \r simulate PIG's response to elevated sub-ice melt. Consistent with \r modelling of Thwaites Glacier (Joughin et al., 2014), all three models \r demonstrate sustained future retreat at an increasing rate, as the \r glacier backs onto its retrograde bed. Only one of the three models \r used by Favier et al. (2014) demonstrates the possibility that the \r glacier can recover if sub-ice melt rates are reduced enough to allow \r the ice shelf to thicken and pin on bathymetric features to provide \r buttressing. These results highlight the long-term commitment to \r [...]"


id: ada1bdac0e25bd0f3c1e51baa20a6d61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27788
content:
"Several of West Antarctica's major outlet glaciers, including Pine Island \r Glacier, and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea (Figure 4.8) have \r grounding lines currently retreating on retrograde bedrock (Rignot \r et al., 2014). Thwaites Glacier is particularly important (Figure 4.8), \r because it extends into the interior of the WAIS, where the bed is \r >2000 m below sea level in places. By itself, the Thwaites drainage \r area contains the equivalent of ~0.4 m GMSL (Holt et al., 2006; Millan \r et al., 2017), but loss of the glacier could have a destabilising impact \r on the entire WAIS (Feldmann and Levermann, 2015). The WAIS \r contains enough ice to raise GMSL by ~3.4 m (Fretwell et al., 2013). \r Since AR5, a number of ice sheet modelling studies have focussed on \r limited fractions of Antarctica and so are not included in estimating \r the SROCC Antarctic contribution to GMSL (see Section  4.2.3.2). \r However, these studies do allow an assessment of the potential for \r [...]"


id: 231847299527b24ab5eb6a10a4396f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3368
content:
"[...] persistent and increasing ice loss, and the role of the marine ice sheet \r instability (MISI, see Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3). "


id: 123b601169971f34e8177706f05cb7d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 402
content:
"Joughin et al. (2014) modelled the response of the Thwaites Glacier \r to a combination of elevated sub-ice melt rates and increased \r precipitation and found persistent future retreat, despite either the \r partial compensation of increased accumulation or a future reduction \r in melt. Sub-ice melt rates sustained at current levels were found \r to generate >1 mm yr-1 equivalent GMSL rise within a millennium. \r Higher melt rates and an assumed weak ice shelf triggered rapid \r retreat within a few centuries. Similarly, Waibel et al. (2018) used \r the BISICLES ice sheet model (Cornford et al., 2015) to investigate \r the potential for self-sustained retreat of Thwaites Glacier, by \r incrementally increasing sub-ice melt rates until retreat is triggered, \r and then returning to pre-retreat melt rates. Consistent with Joughin \r et al. (2014), they found self-sustained retreat of Thwaites Glacier \r through MISI. Most uncertainty in their future WAIS simulations \r [...]"


id: 5438fb94efb9ffd16e417071343ea5c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12095
content:
"[...] arises from uncertainties in the long-term response of Thwaites \r Glacier (Figure 4.8). Nias et al. (2016) demonstrated model sensitivity \r of Thwaites Glacier to poorly resolved bedrock boundary conditions \r (small scale topography), pointing to the need for better geophysical \r information to reduce model uncertainty (Schlegel et al., 2018). \r Arthern and Williams (2017) used adaptive mesh techniques, but with \r a different formulation than Cornford et al., (2015), to simulate the \r future response of Amundsen Sea outlet glaciers. They demonstrate \r a sustained, but slow future retreat when sub-ice melt is maintained \r at current rates, and a direct relationship between the strength of \r ocean forcing and the pace of MISI-driven ice loss. Yu et al. (2018) \r simulate future Thwaites retreat using a range of model formulations \r with varying approximations of ice stress balance, different ocean \r melt schemes, and different basal friction laws. Like Arthern and \r [...]"


id: facf2275e50b1c7f94eacfdfaa2404a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41503
content:
"Observations of rapid bedrock uplift in the Amundsen Sea, low \r viscosity of the underlying mantle, and short GIA response times to \r glacial unloading suggest ice-Earth interactions could be important \r there (Barletta et al., 2018). Bedrock uplift and reduced gravitational \r attraction between the ice sheet and ocean as an ice margin loses \r mass reduces RSL at the grounding line, promoting stability and \r providing a negative feedback on retreat (Adhikari et al., 2014; \r Gomez et al., 2015). Using a high-resolution ice sheet-Earth model, \r Larour et al. (2019) showed that long-term future retreat of Amundsen \r Sea grounding lines are slowed by these processes, but the effect \r is found to be minimal until after ~2250. This agrees with other \r recent modelling accounting for ice-Earth interactions, including the \r viscoelastic Earth response to changing ice loads and self-gravitation \r (Gomez et al., 2015; Konrad et al., 2015; Pollard et al., 2017). These \r [...]"


id: d97f0f9b2c535d1ac804a2954e62dc26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35562
content:
"[...] studies also showed a small negative feedback on future retreat over \r the next several centuries, particularly under strong climate forcing. \r However, the viscosity structure of the Earth under the AIS is not \r well resolved, and lateral variations in Earth structure could impact \r these results (Hay et al., 2017). Based on these consistent model "


id: 69dd1b952b7b4077963c40b96824fb9b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15894
content:
"Atmospheric forcing is also becoming increasingly recognised to be \r an important factor for the future of the AIS. A sustained (15 days) \r melt event over the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS in 2016 illustrated \r both the connectivity of Antarctica to the tropics and El Nino, and the \r possibility that future meltwater production on ice shelf surfaces could \r change in the near future (Nicolas et al., 2017). This was highlighted \r by Trusel et al. (2015), who evaluated the future expansion of surface \r meltwater using the snow component in the RACMO2 regional \r atmospheric model (Kuipers Munneke et al., 2012) and output from \r CMIP5 GCMs. Under RCP8.5, they found a substantial expansion \r of surface meltwater production on ice shelves late in the 21st \r century that exceed melt rates observed before the 2002 collapse \r of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. Surface meltwater is important for both ice \r dynamics and SMB due to its potential to reduce albedo, saturate the \r [...]"


id: de0f8cf0924618cf64f7ff0bac695149
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36332
content:
"[...] firn layer, deepen surface crevasses, and to cause flexural stresses \r that can contribute to ice shelf break-up (hydrofracturing) (Banwell \r et al., 2013; Kuipers Munneke et al., 2014). The presence of surface \r meltwater does not necessarily lead to immediate ice shelf collapse \r (Bell et al., 2017b; Kingslake et al., 2017), although surface meltwater \r was a precursor on ice shelves which have collapsed (Scambos et al., \r 2004; Banwell et al., 2013). This dichotomy illustrates the uncertain \r role of meltwater and the need for additional study. When and if melt \r rates will be sufficiently high in future warming scenarios to trigger \r widespread hydrofracturing is a key question, because the loss of ice \r shelves is associated with the onset of marine ice sheet instabilities \r (Cross-chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3). Based on the single modelling \r study by Trusel et al. (2015), it is not expected that widespread ice \r [...]"


id: 4063f1cdaac681cc022af4a991d1704a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8521
content:
"Various ice sheet model formulations, including the choice of \r grounding line parameterisations and basal sliding schemes can \r strongly affect model response to a given forcing (Brondex et al., \r 2017; Pattyn, 2017), although sophisticated statistical methodologies \r have been increasingly used since AR5 to quantitatively gauge model \r uncertainty (Bulthuis et al., 2019; Edwards et al., 2019). Accurate \r atmospheric forcing (SMB) and sub-ice melt are also prerequisite \r to resolving the time-evolving dynamics of the system, with sub-ice \r melt rates being particularly important (Schlegel et al., 2018). An \r important ongoing deficiency is the lack of ice-ocean coupling in \r most continental-scale studies, which remains too computationally \r expensive to simulate the ocean at the spatial scales necessary to \r capture circulation in ice shelf cavities and time-evolving ice-ocean \r interactions (Donat-Magnin et al., 2017; Hellmer et al., 2017). Instead, \r [...]"


id: d73bef78a99ee8a0ef014c3ffe2cef89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35176
content:
"[...] melt rates are often parameterised as a depth dependent function of \r nearby ocean temperature derived from offline ocean models, but \r the lack of ice-ocean interaction can seriously overestimate melt \r rates in some settings (de Rydt et al., 2015; Seroussi et al., 2017). \r Approaches that link offline ocean temperatures with efficient box \r models of the circulation in ice shelf cavities have been developed \r (Lazeroms et al., 2018; Reese et al., 2018a) and used in long-term "


id: 3a4dcb51b5a5041de825b535c5c80c36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7463
content:
"Ritz et al. (2015) used a hybrid physical-statistical modelling approach, \r whereby the timing of MISI onset is determined statistically rather \r than physically. They estimated probabilities of MISI onset in eleven \r different sectors around the ice sheet margin based on observations \r of continent-wide retreat and thinning over the last few decades, \r and expected future climate change following an IPCC SRES A1B \r emission scenario only. In places where MISI is projected to begin, \r the persistence and rate of grounding-line retreat is parameterised \r as a function of the local bedrock topography (slope), ice thickness \r at grounding lines following Schoof (2007b), and basal friction. This \r study represents a statistically rigorous approach in which model \r parameters are based on a synthesis of observations and projected \r surface and sub-shelf forcing, rather than coming directly from \r climate and ocean models. However, the model calibrations rely \r [...]"


id: 19056b8deb5142f86e9ab1977ee7b785
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1618
content:
"[...] on recent observations, which may not provide adequate guidance \r under warmer future conditions."


id: 8e173a0fd3c901e8b85e360afc55c020
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22193
content:
"Bulthuis et al. (2019) used a different continental-scale ice sheet \r model (Pattyn, 2017) with the same simplified atmospheric and \r ocean forcing used by Golledge et al. (2015) to simulate RCP2.6, \r RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulations with varying model \r parameters were used to quantify uncertainties related to the \r atmospheric forcing, various ice-model physics, and bedrock response \r to changing ice loads. A key finding was that irrespective of model \r parametric uncertainty, the strongly mitigated RCP2.6 scenario \r prevents catastrophic WAIS collapse over the coming centuries. The \r probabilistic projections of Antarctic GMSL contributions (Bulthuis \r et al., 2019) represent a rigorous blending of physical ice sheet \r modelling and uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques, albeit with \r a simplistic representation of future climate and using a relatively \r coarse-resolution ice sheet model. These results are well-supported \r [...]"


id: ec2d1aed19ca91d93868d532647bea77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38924
content:
"[...] by Schlegel et al. (2018), who blend UQ with a higher resolution ice \r sheet model than used by Bulthuis et al. (2019), but using an idealised \r climate forcing scheme not directly linked to time-evolving future \r climate trajectories. Their 800 simulations, run to 2100, provide not \r only probabilistic constraints on future GMSL-rise from Antarctica, \r but an assessment of key drivers of uncertainty, including uniform \r and regional dependencies on model physical parameters, climate \r forcing, and boundary conditions. Sub-ice shelf melt rates provide \r the greatest source of uncertainty in their projections, although the \r source region dominating the GMSL contribution is found to be \r dependent on the climate forcing applied, and different from those \r found by Golledge et al. (2015)."


id: 6abd288cb277df8f96774830c3b7ecba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16060
content:
"Golledge et al. (2015) used PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model; \r Winkelmann et al., 2011) to simulate the future response of the AIS \r to RCP emission scenarios. PISM links grounded, streaming, and shelf \r flow, and has freely evolving grounding lines required to capture \r MISI. PISM's parameterised treatment of sub-ice melt applies melt \r under partially grounded grid cells (Feldmann and Levermann, 2015), \r making the model sensitive to subsurface ocean warming, although \r the validity of this approach is contested (Arthern and Williams, 2017; \r Seroussi and Morlighem, 2018; Yu et al., 2018). While providing \r alternative outcomes with the two basal melt rate parameterisations, \r the model is not calibrated to observations and doesn't provide a \r probability distribution. In a subsequent study Golledge et al. (2019) \r used PISM, but with updated RCP climate forcing based on CMIP5 \r GCMs, and with sub-ice ocean melt calibrated to observations. An \r [...]"


id: 706b3ececbdf6ff2f3b261ba26a321b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17040
content:
"[...] offline, intermediate-complexity climate model was used to capture \r global ice-climate feedbacks ignored in most other studies, but the \r simulations only include RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and do not extend \r beyond 2100. Accounting for the climatic effects of meltwater input \r from Greenland and Antarctica nearly doubled their estimates of \r Antarctic's contribution to GMSL in 2100 from 2.4 cm to 4.6 cm in \r RCP4.5, and from 7.7 cm to 14 cm in RCP8.5. The increase is caused \r by a combination of SMB decrease over the WAIS, combined with \r subsurface ocean warming that increases sub-ice melt. However, the \r climate model used to diagnose the spatial patterns of the atmospheric \r and oceanic response to the meltwater input is simplistic. Bronselaer \r et al. (2018) tested the global climatic response to future meltwater \r input from Antarctica using an ensemble of GCM simulations, but "


id: 89ec7ae97fc8f5bb6b827b77cd969d36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21438
content:
"DeConto and Pollard (2016) used an ice sheet model with a \r formulation similar to that used by Golledge et al. (2015) and Bulthuis \r et al. (2019) but they include glaciological processes not accounted \r for in other continental-scale models: 1) surface melt and rain water \r influence on hydrofracturing of ice shelves; and 2) brittle failure of \r thick, marine-terminating ice fronts that have lost their buttressing \r ice shelves. Where the ice fronts are thick enough to form tall ice cliffs \r above the waterline, they can produce stresses exceeding the strength \r of the ice, causing calving (Bassis and Walker, 2012). Once initiated, \r ice-cliff calving has been hypothesised to produce a self-sustaining \r Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI; Cross-chapter Box  8, Chapter  3). \r The validity of MICI remains unproven (Edwards et al., 2019) and \r is considered to be characterised by 'deep uncertainty', but it has \r the potential to raise GMSL faster than MISI. DeConto and Pollard \r [...]"


id: 7f2977c1051ccf7033668de150f6c4c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19526
content:
"parameterisations, but the glaciological processes themselves are \r supported by more detailed modelling and observations (Scambos \r et al., 2009; Banwell et al., 2013; Ma et al., 2017; Wise et al., 2017; \r Parizek et al., 2019). DeConto and Pollard (2016) provide four \r ensembles for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, representing \r two alternative ocean model treatments and two alternative palaeo \r sea level targets used to tune their model physical parameters. \r However, their ensembles do not explore the full range of model \r parameter space or provide a probabilistic assessment (Kopp et al., \r 2017; Edwards et al., 2019). Under RCP2.6, DeConto and Pollard \r (2016) find very little GMSL rise from Antarctica by 2100 (0.02-\r 0.16 m), consistent with the findings of Golledge et al. (2015) and \r Bulthuis et al. (2019). In contrast, their four ensemble means range \r between 0.26-0.58 m for RCP4.5, and 0.64-1.14 m for RCP8.5. In \r [...]"


id: dfea2390ec78ccfd59fad5564dd78d1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36637
content:
"[...] RCP8.5, rates of GMSL rise from Antarctica exceed 5 cm yr-1 in the \r 22nd century and contribute as much as 15 m of GMSL rise by 2500, \r largely due to the ice cliff calving process. The climate forcing used by \r DeConto and Pollard (2016) simulates the appearance of extensive \r surface meltwater several decades earlier than indicated by other \r CMIP5 climate simulations (Trusel et al., 2015). Because their model \r physics are sensitive to melt water through hydrofracturing, this \r makes the timing and magnitude of their simulated ice loss too \r uncertain to include in SROCC sea level projections. However, their \r results do demonstrate the potential for brittle ice sheet processes \r not considered by AR5 to exert a strong influence on future rates \r of GMSL rise and the possibility that GMSL beyond 2100 could be \r considerably higher than the likely range projected by models that do \r not include these processes."


id: 6143fff6e8cd7d11e42d52325ad49bdb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14414
content:
"Ritz et al. (2015) is difficult to contextualise as they only provided \r estimates for the A1B scenario and not for the RCP scenarios. Despite \r this limitation their results, which are close to the other studies, \r are included as if they represent RCP8.5 and as such supports the \r assessment. The results by DeConto and Pollard (2016) indicate \r significantly higher mass loss even for RCP4.5, potentially related to \r their high surface melt rates on the ice shelves as contested by Trusel \r et al. (2015). This early onset of high surface melt rates in DeConto and \r Pollard (2016) leads to extensive hydrofracturing of ice shelves before \r the end of the 21st century and therefore to rapid ice mass loss. For this \r reason, their results and probabilistic (e.g., Kopp et al., 2017; Le Bars \r et al., 2017) and statistical emulation estimates that build on them \r (Edwards et al., 2019), are not used in SROCC sea level projections. \r [...]"


id: 86c6a82cee60104fc97d6ee7e3b38b0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20879
content:
"[...] Consequently, the process-based studies by Golledge et al. (2015), \r Ritz et al. (2015), Levermann et al. (2014), Golledge et al. (2019), and \r Bulthuis et al. (2019) are used to assess the Antarctic contribution for \r the different RCP scenarios. The study by Schlegel et al. (2018) does \r not provide RCP based scenarios, but is considered as an extensive \r sensitivity estimate providing a high-end estimate based on physical \r process understanding of the Antarctic contribution. "


id: e9a926b83215ee1f54e5d8e4a70d82d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38461
content:
"Each study expresses an uncertainty in the Antarctic contribution to \r GMSL rise which is, in part, dependent on a common driver, namely \r regional warming. The uncertainties were therefore interpreted as \r being dependent and propagate the total uncertainty accordingly. As \r a result, the total uncertainty exceeds that of the individual studies, \r which reflects that the individual studies only sample a fraction of \r the total uncertainty. The uncertainty estimates of Levermann et al. \r (2014) concentrate on the oceanic basal melt rates including a time \r delay between atmosphere and ocean temperature, but do not \r consider other sources of uncertainty. Ritz et al. (2015) is constrained \r by observations and provides an asymmetric distribution of the rate \r of mass loss. The ice sheet simulations by Golledge et al. (2015) \r and Golledge et al. (2019) only provide two alternative subgrid \r parameterisations for sub-ice melt, rather than a statistical estimate \r [...]"


id: c00542d146e707b163a07d1bd855db7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31075
content:
"[...] of the uncertainty. The more sensitive of these two parameterisations \r which induces more ice loss is challenged by Seroussi and Morlighem \r (2018). In order to assess a realistic uncertainty for the total Antarctic \r contribution, it was first assumed that Golledge et al. (2015) and \r Golledge et al. (2019) are dependent, because they use similar \r parameterisations. For each study, a probabilistic distribution is used, \r assuming a normal distribution with a likely range bounded by the \r high and low estimate from those studies. Levermann et al. (2014) \r also provides two alternatives, one with and one without a time \r delay between oceanic temperatures below the Antarctic ice shelves \r and global mean atmospheric temperature. As it is unclear which \r version best matches the updated record of ice loss presented by The \r IMBIE team, (2018), results are combined assuming full probabalistic "


id: bb4275abff2db1041844025d75481068
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30163
content:
"In addition to the model including MICI from DeConto and Pollard \r (2016), only a subset of studies (Levermann et al., 2014; Golledge \r et al., 2015; Ritz et al., 2015; Bulthuis et al., 2019; Golledge et al., \r 2019), and statistical emulation of DeConto and Pollard (2016) by \r Edwards et al. (2019) provide continental-scale estimates of future \r Antarctic ice loss, under a range of GHG emissions scenarios. They \r all provide probabilistic information, but vary considerably, both \r in their physical approaches and their resulting projections of \r Antarctica's future contribution to GMSL. Such variations facilitate \r the first quantitative uncertainty assessment of the full dynamical \r contribution of Antarctica, which could not be made by Church \r et al. (2013) in AR5. The assessment by Church et al. (2013), based \r on a single statistical-physical model, reported median values (and \r likely ranges) of 0.05 m (-0.04-0.13) and 0.04 m (-0.06-0.12), for \r [...]"


id: b03083b60328027b816635142220b06d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28233
content:
"[...] RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for the total Antarctic contribution \r in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005, and added the following: \r 'Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based \r sectors of the AIS, if initiated, could cause GMSL to rise substantially \r above the likely range during the 21st century. This potential \r additional contribution cannot be precisely quantified but there is \r medium confidence that it would not exceed several tenths of a \r metre of SLR during the 21st century (Church et al., 2013). Given the \r above-mentioned publications after AR5, Antarctica's contribution to \r sea level change was reassessed and now include the possibility of \r MISI allowing for a more complete assessment of the likely range \r of the projections for three RCP scenarios. Our assessment is based "


id: a6ebc877788ebff7082b854a7dfdc9d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26577
content:
"dependence as for the two Golledge studies. Bulthuis et al. (2019) \r uses a simplified ice sheet model to study the uncertainty caused \r by the atmospheric forcing, ice dynamics, ice and bed rheology, \r calving and sub-shelf melting. Finally, the studies by Ritz et al. \r (2015), Bulthuis et al. (2019) and the averages for Golledge and \r Levermann are combined to identify a best estimate for the Antarctic \r contribution under RCP8.5. This results in a median contribution of \r 16 cm in 2100 under RCP8.5. A Monte Carlo technique is used to \r combine the uncertainties in the aforementioned studies, assuming \r mutual dependence. The resulting 5-95 percentile range, 2-37 cm in \r 2100 under RCP8.5, is assessed as the likely range. This assessment is \r used in order to reflect ongoing limited understanding of the physics \r and the fact that the individual studies only reflect part of the total \r uncertainty. The distribution is slightly skewed to higher values, \r [...]"


id: 7a3f3966a82c6681a3383807d04d1050
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18701
content:
"[...] because of an underlying skewness in the studies of Levermann et al. \r (2014) and Ritz et al. (2015). This skewed distribution is supported by \r an expert elicitation study (Bamber et al., 2009). The expert elicitation \r approach (Bamber et al., 2018), which applied elicitation to both ice \r sheets, suggests considerably higher values for total SLR for RCP2.6, \r RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than provided in Table 4.3."


id: 9530c99a94e08f433f1c7b0cd4def498
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23451
content:
"probability density function conditional not only on an RCP scenario, \r but with additional and equally important a priori assumptions \r concerning for instance the Antarctic contribution over which a \r consensus has yet to solidify. An example is the study by Le Bars \r et al. (2017) who expand the projection by Church et al. (2013) in \r a probabilistic way with the Antarctic projections by DeConto and \r Pollard (2016) to obtain a full probability density function for SLR \r for RCP8.5. Other probabilistic approaches are provided by Kopp \r et al. (2014) and Jackson and Jevrejeva (2016) using different ice \r sheet representations drawing on expert elicitation (Bamber and \r Aspinall, 2013). Probabilistic estimates are useful for a quantitative \r risk management perspective (see Section  4.3.3). An even more \r general approach than the probabilistic estimates has been taken \r by Le Cozannet et al. (2017) who frame a 'possibilistic' framework of \r [...]"


id: 103ea5ff64575d8938aee928fdd98bf7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 46
content:
"the expert elicitation with the non-Antarctic components from AR5 as \r done for Table 4.4 leads to an estimated SLR of 0.95 m (median) for \r the high scenario and an upper likely range of 1.32 m (Figure 4.2), \r which is slightly higher than the process-based results. Results by \r Bamber and Aspinall (2013) were criticised because of their procedure \r for post-processing the expert data of individual ice sheets to a total \r sea level contribution from the ice sheets (de Vries and van de Wal, \r 2015; Bamber et al., 2016; de Vries and van de Wal, 2016). Bamber \r et al. (2019) avoids this issue by eliciting expert judgments about ice \r sheet dependence. Alternatively, Horton et al. (2014) used a simpler \r elicitation protocol focusing on the total SLR rather than the ice sheet \r contribution alone. Finally, several probabilistic studies (e.g., Bakker \r et al., 2017; Kopp et al., 2017; Le Bars et al., 2017) used the results of \r [...]"


id: 6e412b938de94f6e66d51345b7cb3f61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16667
content:
"[...] a single ice sheet model study from DeConto and Pollard (2016) as the \r Antarctic contribution to GMSL."


id: f45670a891b604201fef013a40703db3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40362
content:
"more recent studies the differences are vanishingly small. Ongoing \r advances in closing the sea level budget and in the process \r understanding of the dynamics of ice have reduced the salience of \r estimates from semi-empirical models. Moreover, the results from \r semi-empirical models (Kopp et al., 2016; Mengel et al., 2016) are \r in general agreement with Church et al. (2013), except when those \r results reflect the combined hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability \r mechanism as presented by DeConto and Pollard (2016). At the same \r time, semi-empirical models based on past observations capture \r poorly or miss altogether the recent observed changes in Antarctica. \r MISI may lend a very different character to ice sheet evolution in \r the near future than in the recent past and hydrofracturing remains \r impossible to quantify from observational records only. For this \r reason, a new generation of semi-empirical models and emulators \r [...]"


id: 79964cce558c14eace4c6cbb02e09e10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18595
content:
"[...] has been developed that estimate individual components of SLR, \r which the former models do not (Mengel et al., 2018). These newer \r models aim to emulate the response of more complex models \r providing more detailed information for different climate scenarios \r or probability estimates than process-based models (Bakker et al., \r 2017; Nauels et al., 2017a; Wong et al., 2017; Edwards et al., 2019)."


id: 3202d3e1c4c2c6d48f9eca77d9e799c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6054
content:
"A wide range of probabilistic sea level projections exist, ranging from \r simple scaling relations to partly process-based components combined \r with scaling relations. Table 4.5 illustrates the overlap between many \r of the studies, a complete overview is presented by Garner et al. (2017), \r and differences between different classes of models are discussed in \r Horton et al. (2018). Many studies rely on CMIP simulations for an \r important part of their sea level components. The largest difference \r can be found in the treatment of the ice dynamics, particularly for \r Antarctica, which are usually not CMIP5 based. Instead, each derives \r from one of several estimates of the Antarctic contribution. These \r results are useful for the purposes of elucidating sensitivities of \r process-based studies and effects of changing components to the \r total projection. This report relies on the Antarctic component from \r Section 4.2.3.2 for calculating the likely range of RSL. Hence the values \r [...]"


id: c0537bfdd16fb22d431298cc44c90493
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31141
content:
"[...] in Table 4.5 are not used for the final assessment of RSL including \r the SROCC specific Antarctic contribution presented in Section 4.2.3.2. \r Comparing the probabilistic projections (Table 4.6) is difficult because \r of the subtle differences between their assumptions. Nevertheless, \r values range much more for 2100 than for 2050."


id: d6c655730d22f9f15441528c95bc66de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35094
content:
"Statistical models have shown that the estimation of ESL is highly \r sensitive to the characterisation of SLR and flood frequency \r distributions (Buchanan et al., 2017). This is confirmed by Wahl et al. \r (2017) who estimate that the 5-95 percentile uncertainty range, \r attained through the application of different statistical extreme \r value methods and record lengths, of the current 100-year event is \r on average 40 cm, whereas the corresponding range in projected \r GMSL of AR5 under RCP8.5 is 37 cm. For ESL events with a higher \r return period, differences will be larger. Capturing changes in the ESL \r return periods in the future is even more complicated because both \r the changing variability over time and the uncertainty in the mean \r projection must be combined. A statistical framework to combine \r RSL and ESL, based on historical tide gauge data was applied to \r the US coastlines (Buchanan et al., 2016). Hunter (2012) and the \r [...]"


id: 1ce160a12f0f5939d7b37e14053eec5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2261
content:
"[...] AR5 (Church et al., 2013) projected changes in flood frequency \r worldwide; however, these analyses used the Gumbel distribution \r for high water return periods, which implies that the frequency of \r all ESLs (e.g., whether the 1in 10-year or 1 in 500-year) will change \r by the same magnitude for a given RSL, an approximation that can \r underestimate or overestimate ESL (Buchanan et al., 2017). Hence, \r the amplification factors of future storm return frequency in AR5 WGI \r Figure 13.25 may underestimate flood hazards in some areas, while \r overestimating them in others. By using the Gumbel distribution, \r Muis et al. (2016) may also inadequately estimate flood frequencies."


id: ac248b2675badfd9a14ce965119c0f9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27533
content:
"The frequency and intensity of ESL events can be estimated with \r statistical models or hydrodynamical models constrained by \r observations. Hydrodynamic models simulate a series of ESL events \r over time, which can then be fitted by extreme value distributions \r to estimate the frequency and intensity (e.g. the return level of an \r event occurring with a period of 100 years or frequency of 0.01 yr-1, \r also called the 100-year event). A tide model is sometimes included \r and sometimes added offline to estimate the ESL events. Statistical \r models fit tide gauge observations to extreme value distributions to \r directly estimate ESL events or combine probabilistic RSL scenarios \r with storm surge modelling. This can be done on global scale or \r local scale. For example, Lin et al. (2016) and Garner et al. (2017) \r estimate the increase in flood frequency along the US east coast. \r Both of these modelling approaches can account for projections of \r [...]"


id: e41411b4280ecc0cc322f8059d97150f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37430
content:
"[...] SLR. Rasmussen et al. (2018) used a combination of a global network \r of tide gauges and a probabilistic localised SLR to estimate expected \r ESL events showing inundation reductions for different temperature \r stabilisation targets as shown in the SR15 report."


id: a9ebe7fa2d18be875ed61784adedd61d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27115
content:
"An advantage of the use of hydrodynamic models is that they can \r quantify interactions between the different components of ESL (Arns \r et al., 2013). Hydrodynamical models can be executed over the entire \r ocean with flexible grids at a high resolution (up to 1/20oor ~5 km) \r where necessary, appropriate for local estimates (Kernkamp et al., \r 2011). Input for these models are wind speed and direction, and \r atmospheric pressure. Results of those models show that the Root \r Mean Squared Error between modelled and observed sea level is \r less than 0.2 m for 80% of a data set of 472 stations covering the \r global coastline (Muis et al., 2016) at 10-minute temporal resolution \r over a reference period from 1980-2011. This implies that for most \r locations it can be used to describe the variability in ESL. However, \r the areas where ESL is dominated by tropical storms are problematic \r for hydrodynamical models. Another difficulty arises when these \r [...]"


id: a1f878e6bc58070cd5c62d1296cf1ec4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25731
content:
"A number of studies have included waves, in addition to tides and \r sea level anomalies, to assess coastal vulnerability to SLR using \r dynamical and statistical approaches. CoSMoS (Barnard et al., \r 2014) includes a series of embedded wave models to estimate high \r resolution projections of total water levels along the Southern \r California coast for different extreme scenarios (O'Neill et al., 2017). \r Arns et al. (2017) find that an increase in sea level may reduce the \r depth-limitation of waves, thereby resulting in waves with greater \r energy approaching the coast. Including wave effects is crucial for \r coastal adaptation and planning (e.g., Isobe, 2013). For example Arns \r et al. (2017) report that coastal protection design heights need to be \r increased by 48-56% in the German Bight region relative to a design \r height based on the effect of SLR on ESL only. Combining SLR with \r extreme value theory applied to past observations of tides, storm \r [...]"


id: 970ab50821a98d2166aa61c05908855c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23765
content:
"[...] surges and waves, Vitousek et al. (2017) found that a 10-20 cm SLR \r could result in a doubling of coastal flooding frequency in the tropics. \r For the southern North Sea region, Weisse et al. (2012) argue that \r increasing storm activity also increases hazards from ESL events. \r Global-scale projections of ESL event changes including wave setup \r indicate a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL \r of 58-172 cm under RCP8.5 (Vousdoukas et al., 2018c). Changes in \r storm surges and waves enhance the effects of relative SLR along the \r majority of northern European coasts, with contributions up to 40% \r in the North Sea (Vousdoukas et al., 2017)."


id: 18cacd2f3190bd4a5ef1bc591db0a98e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1579
content:
"In summary, ESL events estimates as presented in this subsection, \r clearly show that as a consequence of SLR, events which are currently \r rare (e.g.,  with an average return period of 100 years), will occur \r annually or more frequently at most available locations for RCP8.5 \r by the end of the century (high confidence). For some locations, this \r change will occur as soon as mid-century for RCP8.5 and by 2100 for \r all emission scenarios. The affected locations are particularly located \r in low-latitude regions, away from the tropical cyclone (TC) tracks. \r In these locations, historical sea level variability due to tides and \r storm surges is small compared to projected mean SLR. Therefore, \r even limited changes in mean sea level will have a noticeable effect \r on ESLs, and for some locations, even RCP2.6 will lead to the annual \r occurrence of historically rare events by mid-century. Results should \r be treated with caution in regions where TCs are important as they \r [...]"


id: 9e3ebf8b31620dbec3ab8ff2d513b147
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25070
content:
"A warming climate is expected to affect wind patterns and storm \r characteristics, which in turn will impact wind waves that contribute \r to high coastal water levels. Wind-wave projections are commonly \r based on dynamical and statistical wave models forced by projected \r surface winds from GCMs, notably those participating in the CMIP. \r In the framework of the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project \r (COWCLIP), an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project \r Phase 3 (CMIP3)-based global wave projections (Hemer et al., \r 2013) was produced and the results were summarised in the AR5 \r (WGI Chapter 13). Casas-Prat et al. (2018) expanded the geographic \r domain to include the Arctic Ocean, highlighting the vulnerability of \r high-latitude coastlines to wave action as ice retreats. Reduced sea \r ice allows larger waves and stronger cyclones in the Arctic Ocean, \r which can further disrupt and break up sea ice (e.g., Thomson and \r [...]"


id: 7f2ae28b74b2a7e6e84d26f4d5051ea4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19527
content:
"[...] Rogers, 2014; Day and Hodges, 2018). A review and consensus-based \r analysis of regional and global scale wave projections, including \r CMIP5-based projections, has been provided by Morim et al. (2018) \r as part of COWCLIP. Projections of annual and seasonal mean \r significant wave height changes agree on an increase in the Southern \r Ocean, tropical eastern Pacific and Baltic Sea; and on a decrease over \r the North Atlantic, northwestern Pacific and Mediterranean Sea. \r Projections of mean significant wave height lack consensus over \r the eastern North Pacific and southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans. \r Projections of future extreme significant wave height are consistent \r in projecting an increase over the Southern Ocean and a decrease \r over the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. Regional \r projections of wind-waves have mostly been applied to Europe so far, \r while highly vulnerable regions have been largely overlooked. This is \r [...]"


id: 818b578eedced33fe28945ad5269b9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19917
content:
"storm surge are very likely to increase significantly over the 21st \r century. Risk from TCs increases in highly vulnerable coastal regions \r (Hallegatte et al., 2013), e.g., on coasts of China (Feng and Tsimplis, \r 2014), west Florida, north of Queensland, the Persian Gulf, and even \r in well protected area such as the Greater Tokyo area (Tebaldi et al., \r 2012; Lin and Emanuel, 2015; Ellingwood and Lee, 2016; Hoshino \r et al., 2016; Dinan, 2017; Emanuel, 2017b; Lin and Shullman, 2017). \r The ESL return period has greatly decreased over recent decades and \r is also expected to decrease greatly in the near future, for example, \r in NYC (by 2030-2045; Garner et al., 2017). It is very likely that \r the ESL return period in low-lying areas such as coastal megacities \r decreased over the 20th century and frequencies of still unusual \r ESL events are expected to increase in frequency in the future. In \r addition, the compound effects of SLR, storm surge and waves on \r [...]"


id: f62311c5ce3b412ec10f95eb8367096c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40663
content:
"[...] ESL events and the associated flood hazard are assessed in Chapter 6 \r (Section 6.3.3.3 and 6.3.4)."


id: eb53df20b1fb62978367258f6572ad4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38758
content:
"CMIP5 climate models (Knutson et al., 2015; Yamada et al., \r 2017), high-resolution simulations (Camargo, 2013; Yamada \r et al., 2017), TC-ocean interaction (Knutson et al., 2015; \r Yamada et al., 2017), statistical models (Ellingwood and Lee, 2016) \r and statistical-deterministic models (Emanuel et al., 2008) have been \r developed, and the ability to simulate TCs has been substantially \r improved. Most models still project a decrease or constant global \r frequency of TCs, but a robust increase in the lifetimes, precipitation, \r landfalls and ratio of intense TCs under global warming. This is \r consistent with IPCC AR5 and many additional studies (Emanuel \r et al., 2008; Holland et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2015; Kanada et al., \r 2017; Nakamura et al., 2017; Scoccimarro et al., 2017; Zheng et al., \r 2017). It is expected that these projected increases are intensified \r by favourable marine environmental conditions, expansion of the \r [...]"


id: bd17d0c0ceb3b32b3cc81932bef8075a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30518
content:
"[...] tropical belt, or ocean warming in the northwest Pacific and north \r Atlantic, and increasing water vapour in the atmosphere (Kossin \r et al., 2014; Moon et al., 2015; Cai et al., 2016; Mei and Xie, 2016; \r Cai et al., 2017; Kossin, 2017; Scoccimarro et al., 2017; Kossin, 2018). \r However, it is noted that, in contrast to most models, some models \r do predict an increase in global TC frequency during the 21st century \r (Emanuel, 2013; Bhatia et al., 2018)."


id: 7ef52f7b7c42c2807a1807dfa425451b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19489
content:
"Sea level at the end of the century will be higher than present day \r and continuing to rise in all cases even if the Paris Agreement is \r followed (Nicholls, 2018). The reasons for this are mainly related to \r the slow response of glacier melt, thermal expansion and ice sheet \r mass loss (Solomon et al., 2009). These processes operate on long \r time scales, implying that even if the rise in global temperature slows \r or the trend reverses, sea level will continue to rise (SR1.5 report, \r AR5). A study by Levermann et al. (2013) based on palaeo-evidence \r and physical models formed the basis of the assessment by Church \r et al. (2013) indicating that committed SLR is approximately \r 2.3 m per degree warming for the next 2000 years with respect to \r pre-industrial temperatures. This rate is based on a relation between \r ocean warming and basal melt as used by Levermann et al. (2013), \r without accounting for surface melt, hydrofracturing of ice shelves \r [...]"


id: 27fc54a7bbef45e05c493af6b8d4ef91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4233
content:
"[...] and subsequent ice cliff failure, suggested to be a dominant long \r term mechanism for ice mass loss (DeConto and Pollard, 2016). Deep \r uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1) remains on the ice \r dynamical contribution from Antarctica after 2100."


id: 143432de0510c6fd8de63715728bae4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 775
content:
"Beyond the 21st century, the relative importance of the long-term \r contributions of the various components of SLR changes markedly. \r For glaciers, the long-term is of limited importance, because the sea \r level equivalent of all glaciers is restricted to 0.32 +- 0.08 m when \r taking account of ice mass above present day sea level (Farinotti \r et al., 2019). Hence, there is high confidence that the contribution \r of glaciers to SLR expressed as a rate will decrease over the 22nd \r century under RCP8.5 (Marzeion et al., 2012). For thermal expansion \r the gradual rate of heat absorption in the ocean will lead to a further \r SLR for several centuries (Zickfeld et al., 2017). By far, the most \r important uncertainty on long time scales arises from the contribution \r of the major ice sheets. The time scale of response of ice sheets is \r thousands of years. Hence, if ice sheets contribute significantly to sea \r level in 2100, they will necessarily also contribute to sea level in the \r [...]"


id: 8d14acf2fcb89cdc895831e62062dbbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22012
content:
"[...] centuries to follow. Only for low emission scenarios, like RCP2.6, can \r substantial ice loss be prevented, according to ice dynamical models \r (Levermann et al., 2014; Golledge et al., 2015; DeConto and Pollard, \r 2016; Bulthuis et al., 2019). For Greenland, surface warming may lead "


id: bf4f62a30ff1d4e8fa02d1725eac3766
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30925
content:
"A blended statistical and physical model, calibrated by observed \r recent ice loss in a few basins (Ritz et al., 2015) projects an Antarctic \r contribution to sea level of 30  cm by 2100 and 72  cm by 2200, \r following the SRES A1B scenario, roughly comparable to RCP6.0. \r The projected contribution of WAIS was found to be limited to 48 cm \r in 2200 following the A1B scenario. The key uncertainty in these \r calculations comes from the dependency on the relation between the \r sliding velocity and the friction at the ice-bedrock interface. Several \r parameterisations are used to describe this process. Golledge et al. \r (2015) present values between 0.6-3  m by 2300 for the RCP8.5 \r scenario. In contrast to the previous studies, Cornford et al. (2015) \r used an adaptive grid model, which can describe more accurately \r grounding line migration (Cross-Chapter Box  8 in Chapter  3). Due \r to the computational complexity of their model, simulations are \r [...]"


id: a06b579c1ad36bc84df560d1d5e19d7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25437
content:
"[...] limited to West Antarctica. Starting from present-day observations, \r they find that the results are critically dependent on initial conditions, \r sub ice shelf melt rates, and grid resolution. The glacier with the \r most uncertain vulnerability is the 120  km-wide Thwaites Glacier, \r in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. Thwaites Glacier is \r currently retreating in a reverse-sloped trough extending into the \r central WAIS (Figure 4.8), where the bed is up to 2 km below sea \r level. In addition to Thwaites, several smaller outlet glaciers and ice \r streams may contribute to sea level on long time scales, but in the \r study by Cornford et al. (2015), a full West Antarctic retreat does \r not occur with limited oceanic heating under the two major ice \r shelves (Filchner-Ronne and Ross) keeping ice streams flowing into \r the Ross and Weddell Seas in place. However, the representation of \r these processes remains simplistic at the continental ice sheet scale \r [...]"


id: 41b3910e2c05c00ab590c7f807926652
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8751
content:
"to ablation becoming larger than accumulation, and the associated \r surface lowering increases ablation further (positive feedback). As \r a consequence, the ice sheet will significantly retreat. Church et al. \r (2013) concluded that the threshold for perpetual negative mass \r balance based on modelling studies lies between 1oC (Robinson \r et al., 2012; low confidence) and 4oC (medium confidence) above \r pre-industrial temperatures. Pattyn et al. (2018) demonstrated that \r with more than 2.0oC of summer warming, it becomes more likely \r than not that the GIS crosses a tipping point, and the ice sheet will \r enter a long-term state of decline with the potential loss of most or all \r of the ice sheet over thousands of years. If the warming is sustained, \r ice loss could become irreversible due to the initiation of positive \r feedbacks associated with elevation-SMB feedback (reinforced \r surface melt as the ice sheet surface lowers into warmer elevations), \r [...]"


id: 365cd83606c729a9d540aacaf258f073
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6798
content:
"[...] and albedo-melt feedback associated with darkening of the ice \r surface due to the presence of liquid water, loss of snow, changes in \r firn and biological processes (Tedesco et al., 2016; Ryan et al., 2018). \r The precise temperature threshold and duration of warming required \r to trigger such irreversible retreat remains very uncertain, and more \r research is still needed."


id: f771147a1d38b82f8b4de01698472436
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40909
content:
"The mechanisms for decay of the AIS are related to ice shelf melt by \r the ocean, followed by accelerated loss of grounded ice and MISI, \r possibly exacerbated by hydrofracturing of the ice shelves and ice \r cliff failure (Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3). The latter processes \r have the potential to drive faster rates of ice mass loss than the \r SMB processes that are likely to dominate the future loss of ice \r on Greenland. Furthermore, the loss of marine-based Antarctic ice \r represents a long-term (millennial) commitment to elevated SLR, due \r to the long thermal memory of the ocean. Once marine based Antarctic \r ice is lost, local ocean temperatures will have to cool sufficiently \r for buttressing ice shelves to reform, allowing retreated grounding \r lines to re-advance (DeConto and Pollard, 2016). A minimum time \r scale, whereby the majority of West Antarctica decays, was derived \r from a schematic experiment with an ice flow model by Golledge \r [...]"


id: e22d1c0a620dc0b085c0c14c304764dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37071
content:
"[...] et al. (2017), where ice shelves were removed instantaneously and \r prohibited from re-growing. Results of this experiment indicate that \r most of West Antarctica's ice is lost in about a century."


id: 19d5f20ca6562468c3a9645d0a2fe10e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1741
content:
"Nonetheless, recent studies using independently developed Antarctic \r ice dynamical models (Golledge et al., 2015; DeConto and Pollard, \r 2016; Bulthuis et al., 2019) agree that low emission scenarios, are \r required to prevent substantial future ice loss (medium confidence). \r However, observations (Rignot et al., 2014) and modelling of the \r Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica (Joughin et al., 2014), suggest \r grounding line retreat on the glacier's reverse sloped bedrock is \r already underway and possibly capable of driving major WAIS \r retreat on century time scales. Whether the retreat is driven by ocean \r changes driven by climate change or by climate variability (Jenkins \r et al., 2018) is still under debate. Hence it is not possible to determine \r whether a low emission scenario would prevent substantial future \r ice loss (medium confidence). This is a further elaboration on the \r SR15 assertion that the chance for passing a threshold is larger for \r [...]"


id: 4c8681785cbb92b4fc691a03ab58f573
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10723
content:
"Gradual melt of ice shelves accompanied by partial retreat of East \r Antarctic ice would yield greater ice melt but on a time scale of \r millennial or longer (Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3). Prescribing \r a uniform warming of 2oC-3oC in the Southern Ocean triggers an \r accelerated decay of West Antarctica in a coarse resolution model \r with a temperature-driven basal melt formulation yielding 1-2  m \r SLR by the year 3000 and up to 4 m by the year 5000 (Sutter et al., \r 2016). Formulating an ice sheet model with Coulomb friction in the \r grounding line zone yields a SLR of 2 m after 500 year for a sub-ice \r shelf melt of 20 m a-1 (Pattyn, 2017). On decadal to millennial time \r scales the interaction between ice and the solid Earth indicates the \r possibility of a negative feedback slowing retreat by viscoelastic \r uplift and gravitational effects that reduce the water depth at the \r grounding line (Gomez et al., 2010; de Boer et al., 2014; Gomez et al., \r [...]"


id: 59ab3494c4ba059ec32daaca3f23ea7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13012
content:
"[...] 2015; Konrad et al., 2015; Pollard et al., 2017; Barletta et al., 2018; \r Section 4.2.3.1.2)."


id: f938338ee4868684018ed29ed8e8e077
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41209
content:
"Similar to the strategy for the 21st century, the long-term projections \r of sea level were assessed. Since no new CMIP runs are available \r there are no major new insights in the thermal expansion and \r glacier component which deviate from the AR5 assessment for the \r long-term contribution of these components. Some studies updated \r the contribution of the GIS on long time scales. Vizcaino et al. (2015) \r used a GCM coupled to an ice sheet model to calculate the Greenland \r contribution which is within the range of estimates presented by \r Church et al. (2013). This is also true for the ice sheet simulations \r by Calov et al. (2018) which are based on off line simulations with \r a regional climate model forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of \r three different CMIP5 models. On the other hand, Aschwanden et al. \r (2019) used temperatures to calculate SMB which was used to force \r an ice sheet model to arrive at much higher values for SLR. However, \r [...]"


id: c9769a7609c06096bc804698fc42e9e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32767
content:
"[...] they used a spatially uniform temperature forcing, which is in conflict \r with earlier work and overestimated temperatures in the ablation \r zone (e.g.,  Van de Wal and Wild, 2001; Gregory and Huybrechts, \r 2006). Given this limited and contrasting evidence for Greenland, \r the assessed values presented in Table 13.8 of Church et al. (2013) \r were also used, but again replacing the Antarctic component by the \r assessed value from the process and climate scenario-based studies \r published after 2013. The low scenario in Table 13.8 of Church et al. \r (2013) without the Antarctic contribution was combined with the \r RCP2.6 estimates for Antarctica simulated by Golledge et al. (2015), \r the mean of the RCP2.6 simulations with and without time delay \r between global mean atmosphere and ocean temperature around \r Antarctica of Levermann et al. (2014), and the model results of \r Bulthuis et al. (2019). The medium scenario from Church et al. (2013) \r [...]"


id: feeef4da3bbeccdcf744bf5e07cdc046
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42249
content:
"[...] is combined with RCP4.5 results and the high scenario with RCP8.5. \r Results are shown in Figure  4.2, Section  4.1 and show a strong "


id: 76136585fdef76b71c188d8b0ba2a138
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18001
content:
"In summary, there is high confidence in continued thermal expansion \r and the loss of ice from both the GIS and AIS sheets beyond 2100. \r A complete loss of Greenland ice contributing about 7  m to sea \r level over a millennium or more would occur for sustained GMST \r between 1oC (low confidence) and 4oC (medium confidence) above \r pre-industrial levels. Due to deep uncertainties regarding the dominant \r processes that could trigger a major retreat, there is low confidence\r in the estimates of the contribution of the AIS beyond 2100, but our \r estimates (2.3-5.4  m in 2300) for RCP8.5 are considerably higher \r than presented in AR5. High-emission scenarios or exhaustion of \r fossil fuels over a multi-century period lead to rates of SLR as high \r as several metres per century in the long term (low confidence). \r Low-emission scenarios lead to a limited contribution over \r multi-century time scales (high confidence). Discriminating between \r [...]"


id: 45ebf3bc0a349c32e8171ec712ed8cfb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9524
content:
"[...] 1.5oC and 2oC scenarios in terms of long-term sea level change is not \r possible with the limited evidence. Hence, it is concluded that the \r SLR on millennial time scales is strongly dependent on the emission \r scenario followed. This, combined with the lack in predictability \r of the tipping points, indicates the importance of emissions \r mitigation for minimising the risk to low-lying coastlines and islands \r (high confidence)."


id: dece84e13025195697c00cc6f2419f15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36467
content:
"Hazards that contribute to riverine flooding and coastal inundation for Nadi Town and the wider Nadi Basin are heavy rainfall, elevated \r sea levels and subsidence of the delta. People and built assets in the Nadi River floodplain are already being affected by climate \r change. Observed sea level shows an increase of 4 mm yr-1 over the period 1992-2018. Over the past 75 years, extreme rainfall \r events have become more frequent. Of the 84 floods which occurred in the Nadi River Basin since 1870, 54 were post 1980, with \r 26 major floods since 1991 (Hay, 2017). In January 2009, large areas of Fiji were inundated by devastating floods which claimed \r at least 11 lives, left 12,000 people temporarily homeless and caused 54 million USD in damage. Worst hit was the Nadi area, with \r total damage estimated at 39 million USD (Hay, 2017). The increased frequency of flooding is not all attributable to increases in sea \r [...]"


id: 293b796158ade87d2d39daca0b1d43d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4468
content:
"[...] level and extreme rainfall events. River channels have become filled with sediment over time, largely owing to deforestation of the "


id: 440078dcb88351377e2b787bd32a3c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9201
content:
"Past updates of the flood defences in Shanghai occurred after extreme flood events (i.e., typhoons in 1962, 1974 and 1981; Xian et al., \r 2018). In contrast, the flood tide of Hurricane Sandy stands out in the record at the Battery tide gauge. Unlike the numerous episodes of \r severe inundation experienced by Shanghai, NYC suffered relatively moderate consequences from individual events before Hurricane \r Sandy. This and other factors led to higher-standard flood protection measures in Shanghai, such as sea walls designed to protect its \r coastlines and critical infrastructure in developed areas against a 200-year (0.005 annual chance) flood level, and flood walls with \r 1000-year (0.001 annual chance) riverine flood return level along the Huangpu River. New York City, on the other hand, has relatively \r low protection, consisting of sandy dunes (e.g., on Staten Island), vegetation (e.g., in Queens) and low-rise sea walls or bulkheads in \r [...]"


id: 5b26736ac72edb7161057d169153b251
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13285
content:
"[...] lower Manhattan. Another reason why Shanghai has repeatedly updated its flood protection while New York City failed to do so lies in \r their differing governance structures (Wei and Leung, 2005; Yin et al., 2011; Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2014), as well as rapid economic \r growth in China, providing funding for large-scale infrastructure (Zhang, 2003)."


id: a57b7d99bcf9b30dccef7533b1e8fa52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26344
content:
"The Nile Delta's low elevation translates into high exposure to SLR (Shaltout et al., 2015), and the level of protection varies greatly \r from place to place (Frihy et al., 2010). Box 4.1, Figure 1 indicates that episodic flooding will increase substantially without effective \r adaptation measures. An estimated 2660 km2\r  in the northern delta will be inundated by 2100 for GMSL of 0.44 m (Gebremichael \r et al., 2018; low confidence), which is comparable to the RCP2.6 emission scenario. In addition, subsidence due to sediment diversion \r by the Aswan High Dam, water and natural gas extraction (Gebremichael et al., 2018) and some other critical natural aspects (Frihy \r et al., 2010) heightens vulnerability to coastal flooding (Box 4.1, Table 3) and reduces fresh water supply to the delta. Subsidence \r rates range from 0.4 mm yr-1 in the west delta to 1.1 mm yr-1 in the mid-delta and 3.4 mm yr-1 in the east delta (Elshinnawy et al., \r [...]"


id: 80b0e5eeefebbca1cfb030226380bb9a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19772
content:
"[...] 2010), although rates as high as 10 mm yr-1 near natural gas extraction operations are also reported (Gebremichael et al., 2018). \r While there is low confidence in reported values, these indicate that subsidence makes locally a substantial contribution to RSL. Future \r construction of Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam (Stanley and Clemente, 2017) may heighten problems of fresh water availability\r and reduce hydropower production. "


id: 8fe492cb5824d74d79acbf5d11de5714
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22524
content:
"Section 4.2 demonstrates that sea level is rising and accelerating over \r time, and that it will continue to rise throughout the 21st century and \r for centuries beyond. It also shows that ESL events that are historically \r rare, will become common by 2100 under all emission scenarios, leading \r to severe flooding in the absence of ambitious adaptation efforts (high \r confidence). In both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, many \r low-lying coastal areas at all latitudes will experience such events \r annually by 2050. In this context, Section 4.3 updates knowledge on \r the recent methodological advances in exposure and vulnerability \r assessments (Box  4.2), dimensions of exposure and vulnerability \r (Section 4.3.2) and observed and projected impacts (Section 4.3.3). \r It concludes with a synthesis on future risks to illustrative low-lying \r coastal geographies (resource-rich coastal cities, urban atoll island, \r large tropical agricultural deltas and Arctic communities), and \r [...]"


id: 50ef58b7942c862cbc7c7af9650b9fbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11522
content:
"Exposure assessment is frequently based on census data, which is available at coarse resolutions. However, new technologies \r (e.g.,  drones and mobile phone data) and more available satellite products provide new tools for exposure analysis. Exposure \r assessment is increasingly based on the combination of high resolution satellite imagery and spatio-temporal population modelling \r as well as improved quality of digital elevation models (DEM; Kulp and Strauss, 2017). This is used to understand better exposure to \r coastal flooding (Kulp and Strauss, 2017), diurnal differences in flood risk exposure (Smith et al., 2016), dynamic gridded population \r information for daily and seasonal differences in exposure (Renner et al., 2017), a combination of remotely-sensed and geospatial \r data with modelling for a gridded prediction of population density at ~100 m spatial resolution (Stevens et al., 2015), or open building \r [...]"


id: 78db58639f8b3aa8b6bb1e7d362f2b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18450
content:
"[...] data using building locations, footprint areas and heights (Figueiredo and Martina, 2016). In addition, methods based on mobile\r phone data (Deville et al., 2014; Ahas et al., 2015), and social media-based participation are increasingly available for population \r distribution mapping (Steiger et al., 2015). Some of these methodologies have been already applied in coastal assessments (Smith \r et al., 2016). Integrating daily and seasonal changes with the distribution of population improves population exposure information for \r risk assessments especially in areas with highly dynamic population distributions, as shown in high tourism areas in mountain regions \r (e.g., Renner et al., 2017), which would have advantages at touristic coastal areas as well."


id: dfd273302acd1fc855be5e918b5f5a91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36623
content:
"Recent studies assess exposure considering not only projected sea levels but also expected changes in population size (Jongman et al., \r 2012; Hauer et al., 2016). It involves different socioeconomic scenarios together with changing growth rates for coastal areas and \r the hinterland (Neumann et al., 2015) and using spatially explicit simulation models for urban, residential and rural areas (Sleeter \r et al., 2017). Migration-based changes in population distribution (Merkens et al., 2016; Hauer, 2017) are also considered, as well as \r simulated future land use (specifically urban growth) to investigate future exposure to SLR (Song et al., 2017). Other studies assess \r future exposure trends by accounting for the role of varying patterns of topography and development projections leading to different \r rates of anticipated future exposure (Kulp and Strauss, 2017), which influence how effectively coastal communities can adapt. Recent \r [...]"


id: 6ce3527a97353c6d74afb5643d3e1f8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16435
content:
"[...] studies aim to account for the sociodemographic characteristics of potentially exposed future populations (Shepherd and Binita,\r 2015), and anticipate future risk by projecting the evolution of the exposure of vulnerable populations and groups (Hardy and Hauer, \r 2018). Using social heterogeneity modelling when developing future exposure scenarios enhances the quality of risk assessments \r in coastal areas (Rao et al., 2017; Hardy and Hauer, 2018). Subnational population dynamics combined with an extended coastal \r narrative-based version of the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) for global coastal population distribution was used for \r assessing global climate impacts at the coast, highlighting regions where high coastal population growth is expected and which \r therefore face increased exposure to coastal flooding (Merkens et al., 2016). SSPs have also been used to estimate future population \r in regional coastal-hazard risk exposure studies (Vousdoukas et al., 2018b)."


id: 2feea1dd4ea36e027e566bb0883d6d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5689
content:
"The dynamic nature of vulnerability, and the need to align climate forecasts with socioeconomic scenarios, was a key message of\r IPCC SREX. Challenges in methodology and data availability, particularly of future socioeconomic data is overcome by extrapolating \r empirical information of past trends in vulnerability to flooding (Jongman et al., 2015; Mechler and Bouwer, 2015; Kreibich et al., \r 2017), downscaling global scenarios, for example, the SSPs (Van Ruijven et al., 2014; Viguie et al., 2014; Absar and Preston, 2015), \r or by using participatory methods, surveys and interviews to develop future scenarios (Ordonez and Duinker, 2015; Tellman et al., \r 2016). The uncertainty of the downscaled projections needs to be considered along with the limitation that, even if population \r data projections are available, the future level of education, poverty, etc. is hard to predict (Jurgilevich et al., 2017). Suggestions \r [...]"


id: a06621d1d73c0cf4d653f6b0c033eb06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25430
content:
"[...] to overcome these shortcomings entail the use of a combination of different data sources for triangulation and inclusion of \r uncertainties (Hewitson et al., 2014), or the meaningful involvement of stakeholders to project plausible future socioeconomic "


id: 311cb07e4edba087a91ac0a2496e990c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5888
content:
"Especially in rural, natural resource-dependent settings, where the population directly rely on the services provided by ecosystems, the \r vulnerability of the ecosystems (e.g., fragmented, degraded ecosystems with low biodiversity) directly influence that of the population. \r Since AR5, several methods have been developed and piloted to assess and map social-ecological vulnerability. Examples include \r the use of i) the sustainable livelihood approach and resource dependence metrics for Australian coastal communities (Metcalf \r et al., 2015), ii) integration of local climate forecasts for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea (Maina et al., 2016), iii) ecosystem \r supply-demand model for an integrated vulnerability assessment in Rostock, Germany (Beichler, 2015), iv) participatory indicator \r development for multiple hazards in river deltas (Hagenlocher et al., 2018), and v) human-nature dependencies and ecosystem \r [...]"


id: 138278e2298ff6f2064d818543e54a68
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 644
content:
"[...] services for small-scale fisheries in French Polynesia (Thiault et al., 2018). Areas, where social vulnerability prevail may be, but are not \r necessarily associated with hotspots of ecosystem vulnerability, highlighting the need to specifically adapt management interventions \r to local social-ecological settings and to adaptation goals (Hagenlocher et al., 2018; Thiault et al., 2018). The number of assessments \r considering both the social and the ecological part of the system are increasingly used (Sebesvari et al., 2016)."


id: 918d2ce38fa0d9f738e9f8a4b10e2a6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22830
content:
"Using vulnerability functions, thresholds, innovative ways of aggregation in indicator-based assessment, \r improved data sources\r The use of vulnerability functions has been shown to be helpful in assessing the damage response of buildings to tsunamis (Tarbotton \r et al., 2015), to coastal surge and wave hazards (Hatzikyriakou and Lin, 2017) and accounting for non-linear relationships between \r mortality and temperature above a 'comfort temperature' (El-Zein and Tonmoy, 2017). Acknowledging the non-compensatory nature \r of different vulnerability indicators (e.g., proximity to the sea cannot always be fully compensated by being wealthy), the concepts \r of preference, indifference and dominance thresholds have been applied as a form of data aggregation (Tonmoy and El-Zein, 2018). \r Similar to advances in exposure assessments, freely available data and mobile technologies hold promise for enabling better input \r [...]"


id: cd667f78ab6939d7033d45177c1640d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33474
content:
"[...] data for vulnerability assessments. Examples include using a combination of  mobile phone and satellite data to determine and \r monitor vulnerability indicators such as poverty (Steele et al., 2017), and using data on subnational dependency ratios and high \r resolution gridded age/sex group datasets (Pezzulo et al., 2017). "


id: f55983c89a6e207af7715af739c43257
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40535
content:
"In contrast, ecosystems with strong physical influences controlling \r elevation (sediment accretion and subsidence), even where mangrove \r replacement of salt marsh is expected, do not show changes in their \r vulnerability to SLR (McKee and Vervaeke, 2018), suggesting strong \r resilience of some coastal ecosystems. In areas such as South Florida, \r the wider Caribbean and the India-Pacific mangrove region (Lovelock \r et al., 2015), however, mangroves cannot outpace current SLR rates, \r and are at risk of disappearing. These regional and local effects are \r highly variable (even contradictory between studies; e.g.,  Smoak \r et al., 2013; Koch et al., 2015) and are related to local conditions \r shaping vulnerability such as topography and controls over salinity \r from freshwater and inputs (Flower et al., 2017), but further research \r on the mass and surface energy balance is needed (Barr et al., 2013). \r In addition, the responses and behaviour of private landowners, who \r [...]"


id: 83c389639a1e3ee6f26938c783f6b81
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20327
content:
"[...] could impede landward migration of ecosystems, is incipient, but \r needs to be taken into account in assessing the ability of coastal \r ecosystems to respond to climate change (Field et al., 2017). Overall, \r the long-term resilience of some coastal vegetation communities, \r and their ability to respond to rapid changes in sea level, is not well \r developed (Foster et al., 2017)."


id: ffa5961ec7acbb675a3edfce927951ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42372
content:
"Global and local-scale processes influence the stability of coastal \r ecosystems and can interact to restrict ecosystem responses to SLR, \r and thus increase their vulnerability. At the global scale, changes in \r precipitation and air temperature represent a potentially significant \r risk that increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to SLR and \r related hazards (Garner et al., 2015; Osland et al., 2017). Maximum \r temperature and mean precipitation change over the last 100 years \r are main drivers of global ecosystem instability (Mantyka-Pringle \r et al., 2013), with marked regional and local variations. In addition, \r seawater warming may affect marine communities and ecosystems \r but research remains sparse and results are contradictory (Crespo \r et al., 2017; Hernan et al., 2017). The synergistic effects between \r climate change and habitat loss due to human impact and urban \r development are increasingly well-documented but the effects are \r [...]"


id: 1439a4b0e99af378940cf3960ec594a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 779
content:
"[...] still not well-known at larger spatial and temporal scales (Kaniewski \r et al., 2014; Sherwood and Greening, 2014). Although evidence \r is limited, recurrent disturbances may lead to losses in ecosystem \r adaptive capacity (Villnas et al., 2013). "


id: a3e93ffba9ba8305fa2a1064066be973
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26030
content:
"At smaller scales, conversion of coastal areas to urban, agricultural and \r industrial uses exacerbates pressure on ecosystems, increases their \r vulnerability to natural hazards, including SLR, and decreases their \r ability to support coastal livelihoods and deliver ecosystem services, \r such as coastal protection, fisheries, wildlife habitat, recreational use \r and tourism (high confidence; Foster et al., 2017). The vulnerability of \r exposed ecosystems is highly variable, as shown in intertidal rocky \r reef habitats in Australia (high confidence; Thorner et al., 2014). Even \r without SLR, the transition zone between two coastal ecosystems and \r adjacent uplands responds dynamically and rapidly to interannual \r changes in inundation, with local factors, such as management of \r water control structures, outweighing regional ones (Wasson et al., \r 2013). The resulting interaction of these variables and dynamics with \r fragmentation, land use planning and management (Richards and \r [...]"


id: 37eddd06a1259f01321ac63c8ac5101e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7046
content:
"Population densification also affects rural areas' exposure and \r vulnerability, and interacts with other factors shaping settlement \r patterns, such as the fact that 'indigenous peoples in multiple \r geographical contexts have been pushed into marginalised \r territories that are more sensitive to climate impacts, in turn limiting \r their access to food, cultural resources, traditional livelihoods and \r place-based knowledge (...) [and therefore undermining] aspects of \r social-cultural resilience' (Ford et al., 2016b, p. 350). In the Pacific, \r for example, 'while traditional settlements on high islands (...) were \r often located inland, the move to coastal locations was encouraged \r by colonial and religious authorities and more recently through the \r development of tourism' (Ballu et al., 2011; Nurse et al., 2014, p. \r 1623; Duvat et al., 2017). Although these population movements \r are orders of magnitude smaller than the global trends described \r [...]"


id: 35f7cf37a42a73c742abf516b4c49a83
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6743
content:
"[...] above, they play a critical role at the very local scale in explaining \r the emergence of, or changes in exposure and vulnerability. In atoll \r contexts, for example, the growing pressure on freshwater resources \r together with a loss in local knowledge (e.g., how to collect water \r from palm trees), result in increased exposure of communities to \r brackish, polluted groundwater, inducing water insecurity and health \r problems (Storey and Hunter, 2010; Lazrus, 2015). "


id: 388517fa53f4e42c7080e1f2b1ee0721
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7154
content:
"Major changes in coastal settlement patterns have occurred in the \r course of the 20th century, and are continuing to take place due to \r various complex interacting processes (Moser et al., 2012; Bennett \r et al., 2016) that together configure and concentrate exposure and \r vulnerability to climate change and SLR along the coast (Newton \r et al., 2012; Bennett et al., 2016). These processes include population \r growth and demographic changes (Smith, 2011; Neumann et al., \r 2015), urbanisation and a rural exodus, tourism development, and \r displacement or (re)settlement of some indigenous communities \r (Ford et al., 2015). This has resulted in a growing number of people \r living in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ, coastal areas below \r 10 m of elevation; around 11% of the world's population in 2010; \r Neumann et al., 2015; Jones and O'Neill, 2016; Merkens et al., 2016) \r and in significant infrastructure and assets being located in risk-prone \r [...]"


id: f1fcc4e02022d74eed65c723d5fa2e46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39965
content:
"[...] areas (high confidence). High density coastal urban development \r is commonplace in both developed and developing countries, as \r documented in recent case studies, for example in Canada (Fawcett \r et al., 2017), China (Yin et al., 2015; Lilai et al., 2016; Yan et al., 2016), \r Fiji (Hay, 2017), France (Genovese and Przyluski, 2013; Chadenas \r et al., 2014; Magnan and Duvat, 2018), Israel (Felsenstein and Lichter, \r 2014), Kiribati (Storey and Hunter, 2010; Duvat et al., 2013), New \r Zealand (Hart, 2011) and the USA (Heberger, 2012; Grifman et al., \r 2013; Liu et al., 2016b). This has implications for levels of SLR risk \r at regional and local scales (medium evidence, high agreement). In "


id: c65fa340fb818011705098748f9f28d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32211
content:
"Coastal areas, including deltas, are highly dynamic as they are \r affected by natural and/or human-induced processes locally or \r originating from both the land and the sea. Changes within the \r catchment can therefore have severe consequences for coastal \r areas in terms of sediment supply, pollution, and/or land subsidence. \r Sediment supply reaching the coast is a critical factor for delta \r sustainability (Tessler et al., 2018) and has declined drastically in the \r last few decades due to dam construction, land use changes and \r sand mining (Ouillon, 2018; high confidence). For instance, Anthony \r et al. (2015) reported large-scale erosion affecting over 50% of the \r delta shoreline in the Mekong delta between 2003 and 2012, which \r was attributed in part to a reduction in surface-suspended sediments \r in the Mekong river potentially linked to dam construction within the \r river basin, sand mining in the river channels, and land subsidence \r [...]"


id: 801e0b76fde38f05e168d4bca564caec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19671
content:
"[...] linked to groundwater over-abstraction locally. Schmitt et al. (2017) \r demonstrated that these and other drivers in sediment budget \r changes can have severe effects on the very physical existence of "


id: 2b8a024ea4052e7ba298bf84ef46237e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4915
content:
"Shoreline erosion leads to coastal squeeze if the eroding coastline \r approaches fixed and hard built or natural structures as noted in \r AR5 (Pontee, 2013; Wong et al., 2014), a process to which SLR also \r contributes (Doody, 2013; Pontee, 2013). The AR5 further noted that \r coastal squeeze is expected to accelerate due to rising sea levels \r (Wong et al., 2014). Doody (2013) characterised coastal squeeze as \r coastal habitats being pushed landward through the effects of SLR \r and other coastal processes on the one hand and, on the other hand, \r the presence of static natural or artificial barriers effectively blocking \r this migration, thereby squeezing habitats into an ever narrowing \r space. Distinctions are made between coastal squeeze being limited \r to (1) the consequences of SLR vs. other environmental changes on \r the coastline and (2) the presence of only coastal defence structures \r vs. natural sloping land or other artificial infrastructure (Pontee, \r [...]"


id: 6209c021e614d9707b8277f92fb5876c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14522
content:
"[...] 2013). Recent publications have emphasised coastal squeeze related \r to SLR, although inland infrastructure blocking habitat migration \r is not necessarily limited to defence structures (Torio and Chmura, \r 2015; McDougall, 2017). Coastal ecosystem degradation by human \r activities leading to coastal erosion is also an important consideration \r (McDougall, 2017). Taking into consideration the current challenges \r to attribute coastal impacts to SLR (Section  4.3.3.1), it can be \r hypothesised here that as long as SLR impacts remain moderate, the \r dominant driving factor of coastal squeeze will be anthropogenic \r land-based development (e.g.,  Section  4.3.2.2). With higher SLR \r scenarios and in the case of no further development at the coast, \r SLR may become the dominant driver before the end of this century."


id: d4b960c86b76a35992d6c0193a8a7c8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34745
content:
"Another rarely considered factor is the shift in TC climatology which \r also plays a critical role in explaining changes in fluvial suspended \r sediment loads to deltas as demonstrated by Darby et al. (2016), again \r for the Mekong delta. More generally, most conventional engineering \r strategies that are commonly employed to reduce flood risk (including \r levees, sea walls, and dams) disrupt a delta's natural mechanisms for \r building land. These approaches are rather short-term solutions which \r overall reduce the long-term resilience of deltas (Tessler et al., 2015; \r Welch et al., 2017). Systems particularly prone to flood risk due to \r anthropogenic activities include North America's Mississippi River \r delta, Europe's Rhine River delta, and deltas in East Asia (Renaud et al., \r 2013; Day et al., 2016). In regions where suspended sediments are \r still available in relatively large quantities, rates of sedimentation can \r [...]"


id: d818eea00e1fce5ecd9267d8f804d559
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35321
content:
"[...] vary depending on multiple factors, including the type of infrastructure \r present locally, as was shown by Rogers and Overeem (2017) for the \r Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bengal) delta in Bangladesh as well \r as seasonal differences in sediment supply and place of deposition. \r For example, in meso-tidal and macro-tidal estuaries, during floods \r most of the sediments are depositing in the coastal zones and a large \r part of these sediments are brought back to the estuary during the \r low flow season by tidal pumping. This can lead to significantly higher \r deposition rates in the dry season as shown by Lefebvre et al. (2012) \r in the lower Red River estuary and by Gugliotta et al. (2018) in the \r Mekong delta. Enhanced sedimentation further upstream in estuaries \r and a silting-up of estuarine navigation channels can have high \r economic consequences for cities with a large estuarine harbour. In \r Haiphong city, in North Vietnam, the authorities decided to build a \r [...]"


id: 34c2b8b3bd807c108ef2b508a95649ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6521
content:
"[...] new harbour further downstream, for a cost estimated at 2 billion USD \r (Duy Vinh et al., 2018)."


id: 5b78d8b6f46a0be38289b89eb3d226dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13335
content:
"Preserved coastal habitats can play important roles in reducing risks \r related to some coastal hazards and initiatives are being put in place \r to reduce coastal squeeze, such as managed realignment (Sections \r 4.1, 4.4.3.1) which includes removing inland barriers (Doody, 2013). \r Coastal squeeze can lead to degradation of coastal ecosystems and \r species (Martinez et al., 2014), but if inland migration is unencumbered, \r observation data and modelling have shown that the net area of coastal \r ecosystems could increase under various scenarios of SLR, depending \r on the ecosystems considered (Torio and Chmura, 2015; Kirwan \r et al., 2016; Mills et al., 2016). However, recent modelling research \r has shown that rapid SLR in a context of coastal squeeze could be \r detrimental to the areal extent and functionality of coastal ecosystems \r (Mills et al., 2016) and, for marshes, could lead to a reduction of habitat \r complexity and loss of connectivity, thus affecting both aquatic and \r [...]"


id: a8429129c3634f41538d85d1584ddfc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26822
content:
"[...] terrestrial organisms (Torio and Chmura, 2015). Contraction of marsh \r extent is also identified by Kirwan et al. (2016) when artificial barriers \r to landward migration are in place. Adaptation to SLR therefore needs \r to account for both development and conservation objectives so \r that trade-offs between protection and realignment that satisfy both \r objectives can be identified (Mills et al., 2016)."


id: d768c4fb8879e9cd860f56c93bb27330
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35203
content:
"In summary, catchment-scale changes have very direct impacts on \r the coastline, particularly in terms of water and sediment budgets \r (high confidence). The changes can be rapid and modify coastlines \r over short periods of time, outpacing the effects of SLR and leading \r to increased exposure and vulnerability of social-ecological systems \r (high confidence). Without losing sight of this fact, management of \r catchment-level processes contribute to limiting rapid increases in \r exposure and vulnerability. Further to hinterland influences, coastal \r squeeze increases coastal exposure as well as vulnerability by the \r loss of a buffer zone between the sea and infrastructure behind \r the habitat undergoing coastal squeeze. The clear implication is \r that coastal ecosystems progressively lose their ability to provide \r regulating services with respect to coastal hazards, including as \r a defence against SLR driven inundation and salinisation (high \r [...]"


id: b3022c92a380799ff94c86a931a06c26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28736
content:
"[...] confidence). Vulnerability is also increased if freshwater resources \r become salinised, particularly if these resources are already scarce. \r The exposure and vulnerability of human communities is exacerbated \r by the loss of other provisioning, supporting and cultural services \r generated by coastal ecosystems, which is especially problematic for \r coast-dependent communities (high confidence). "


id: fc306505b1d91f749313537c4f7729c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41734
content:
"The development of local scale case studies from a social science \r perspective, for example, in the Arctic (Ford et al., 2012; Ford \r et al., 2014), small islands (Petzold, 2016; Duvat et al., 2017) and \r within cities (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2014; Paterson et al., 2017; \r Texier-Teixeira and Edelblutte, 2017) or at the household level (Koerth \r et al., 2014) support a better understanding of the anthropogenic \r drivers of exposure and vulnerability. Four examples of drivers that \r were only emerging at the time of the AR5 are discussed below. Very \r importantly, another major emerging dimension that is not discussed \r here but rather in Section  4.4.4, relates to  power asymmetries, \r politics, and the prevailing political economy, which are important \r drivers of exposure and vulnerability to SLR-related coastal hazards, \r and consequently adaptation prospects (Eriksen et al., 2015; Dolsak \r and Prakash, 2018). Recent literature provides examples in coastal \r [...]"


id: 1e663c902e0dfe5c4e84b5715a8217fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2550
content:
"[...] megacities like Jakarta, Indonesia (Shatkin, 2019) as well as in \r smaller cities, like Maputo, Mozambique (Broto et al., 2015) and \r Surat, India (Chu, 2016a; Chu, 2016b), and many other coastal cities \r and settlements around the world (high confidence; Jones et al., \r 2015; Allen et al., 2018; Hughes et al., 2018; Sovacool, 2018)."


id: ba1b218e701021a955eda874c8451190
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29966
content:
"IK and LK contribute both as a foundation for and an outcome of \r customary resource management systems aimed at regulating \r resource use and securing critical ecosystem protection (examples \r in Indonesia; Hiwasaki et al., 2015), structuring the relationship \r between people and authorities, and framing and maintaining a \r strong sense of place in the community (examples in Timor Leste; \r Hiwasaki et al., 2015). In turn, this allows local communities to \r predict and prepare for both sudden shock events that have historical \r precedent and, when IK and LK are embedded in day-to-day rituals \r and decision making processes, to also anticipate the consequences \r of gradual changes, as in sea level (examples in Indonesia; Hiwasaki \r et al., 2015). Customary resource management systems based on \r IK and elders' leadership - for instance, Rahui in French Polynesia \r (Gharasian, 2016), or Mo in the Marshall Islands (Bridges and \r [...]"


id: 494825765d41955444b8d1c3a162af96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10110
content:
"[...] McClatchey, 2009) - also allow communities to diversify access to \r marine and terrestrial resources using seasonal calendars, to ensure \r collective food and water security, and to maintain ecological \r integrity (McMillen et al., 2014). In rural Pacific atolls, traditional \r food preservation and storage (e.g.,  storing germinated coconuts \r or drying fish) still play a role in anticipating disruptions in natural \r resource availability (Campbell, 2015; Lazrus, 2015). Such practices \r have enabled the survival of isolated communities from the Arctic \r to tropical islands in constraining sea environments for centuries \r to millennia (McMillen et al., 2014; Nunn et al., 2017a). Morrison \r (2017) argues that IK and LK can also play a role in supporting \r internal migration in response to SLR, by avoiding social and cultural \r uprooting (Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1)."


id: 1f2471b606932db90538b6f0d013f4e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2686
content:
"While some studies have begun to highlight the influence of the \r distance from the sea on risk perceptions (Milfont et al., 2014; Lujala \r et al., 2015; O'Neill et al., 2016), there is still little knowledge about \r how risk perceptions vary across different geographical and social \r contexts, and how this influences exposure and vulnerability to \r coastal hazards (e.g., Terpstra, 2011; van der Linden, 2015). There \r is a critical lack of studies specifically addressing SLR. Some recent \r works conducted in coastal Australia suggest that while people are \r confident about their ability to cope with an already experienced \r event, when it comes to SLR, the dominant narrative is articulated \r around the barriers related to the 'uncertainty in the nature and \r scale of the impacts as well as the response options available' \r (Elrick-Barr et al., 2017, p. 1147). Similar conclusions have been \r highlighted in the Caribbean islands of St. Vincent (Smith, 2018) and \r [...]"


id: da128f2f8e3dd897d72f88f985e115b4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35668
content:
"[...] the Bahamas (Thomas and Benjamin, 2018). SLR is rarely addressed \r separately from sea-related extreme events, which masks a crucial \r difference between already-observed and delayed impacts. Climate \r change is considered a \"distant psychological risk\" (Spence et al., \r 2012), making it and SLR per se 'markedly different from the way \r that our ancestors have traditionally perceived threats in their local \r environment' (Milfont et al., 2014; Lujala et al., 2015; van der Linden, \r 2015, p. 112; O'Neill et al., 2016)."


id: f0e9197d76805c28e26a015e6df9015d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39750
content:
"Coastal communities draw on social structures and capabilities \r that can reduce risk and increase adaptive capacity in the face of \r coastal hazards (Aldrich, 2017; Petzold, 2018). Although the term is \r subject to debate (Meyer, 2018), social capital  - that is, the level \r of cohesion between individuals, between groups of individuals, and \r between people and institutions, within and between communities - \r is considered to be a key enabler for collective action to reduce risk \r and build adaptive capacity (Adger, 2010; Aldrich and Meyer, 2015; \r Petzold and Ratter, 2015). Levels of social capital can be influenced \r by underlying social processes, such as socioeconomic (in)equalities, \r gender issues, health, social networks and social media. It applies \r to both developing and developed countries, for example in densely \r populated deltas (Jordan, 2015), European coasts (Jones and Clark, \r 2014; Petzold, 2016), Asian urban or semi-urban coastal areas (Lo \r [...]"


id: 1b8fd50f0f6399c7f6d4c0713fd89454
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2036
content:
"[...] et al., 2015; Triyanti et al., 2017) and Pacific islands (Neef et al., 2018). \r Social capital framed as an enabler for reducing vulnerability has been \r studied in the context of extreme events (risk prevention mechanisms, \r emergency responses and post-crisis actions) and collective \r environmental management (e.g.,  replanting mangroves, beach \r cleaning, etc.). Social capital also enables adaptation prospects. For \r example, its role has been explored in public acceptability of long-term \r coastal adaptation policies in the UK (Jones and Clark, 2014; Jones \r et al., 2015). The role of social capital in building resilience to climate \r stress in coastal Bangladesh was explored by Jordan (2015), who \r found complex and even contradictory interactions between social \r capital and resilience to climate stress. Among others, Jordan (2015) \r also advises caution about uncritical importation of such Westernised \r concepts in seeking to understand and address coastal vulnerability \r [...]"


id: 57fc40ba3295ed090095bfee8f06335f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12743
content:
"and surface water; and (vi) impeded drainage. This section discusses \r some of these hazards (flooding, erosion, salinisation) as well as \r observed and projected impacts on some critical marine ecosystems \r (marshes, mangroves, lagoons, coral reefs and seagrasses), \r ecosystem services (coastal protection) and human societies (people, \r assets, infrastructures, economic and subsistence activities, inequity \r and well-being, etc.). In many cases, the Chapter  4 assessment of \r impacts and responses uses results from literature based on values \r of SLR and ESL events prior to SROCC. However, the general findings \r reported here also carry forward with the new SROCC SLR and ESL \r values. Except in the case of submergence and flooding of coastal \r areas (Section  4.3.3.2), this section assumes no major additional \r adaptation efforts compared to today (i.e.,  neither significant \r intensification of ongoing action nor new types of action), thus \r [...]"


id: eb510f1c5707eda4e23c5631dd2e1053
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38756
content:
"The population exposed to mean and ESL events will grow \r significantly during the 21st century (high confidence) with \r socioeconomic development and SLR contributing roughly equally \r (medium confidence). Considering an average relative SLR of \r 0.7-0.9 m but no population growth, the number of people living \r below the hundred-year ESL in Latin America and the Caribbean \r will increase from 7.5 million in 2011 to 9 million by the end of the \r century (Reguero et al., 2015). Considering population growth and \r urbanisation, only 21 cm of global mean SLR by 2060 would increase \r the global population living below the hundred-year ESL from about \r 189  million in 2000 to 316-411  million in 2060, with the largest \r absolute changes in South and Southeast Asia and the largest relative \r changes in Africa (Neumann et al., 2015). Considering population \r growth, Hauer et al. (2016) estimate that 4.3 and 13.1 million people \r [...]"


id: d0b07fc59b86b3032d7a2dacd0471c6b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34066
content:
"On coastal morphological changes for example, contemporary SLR \r currently acts as a 'background driver', with extreme events, changes \r in wave patterns, tides and human intervention often described as \r the prevailing drivers of observed changes (Grady et al., 2013; Albert \r et al., 2016). Morphological changes are also interacting with other \r impacts of SLR, such as coastal flooding (Pollard et al., 2018). Despite \r the complexity of the attribution issue (Romine et al., 2013; Le \r Cozannet et al., 2014), recent literature suggests possibly emerging \r signs of the direct influence of recent SLR on shoreline behaviour, \r for example on small highly-sensitive reef islands in New Caledonia \r (Garcin et al., 2016) and in the Solomon Islands (Albert et al., 2016). \r Early signs of the direct influence of SLR on estuaries' water salinity \r are also emerging, for example, in the Delaware, USA, where Ross \r et al. (2015) estimate a rate of salinity increase by as much as 4.4 psu \r [...]"


id: caf565709bcecfd1d0d1900a5612be5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33047
content:
"New coastal flood risk studies conducted since AR4 at global, \r continental and city scale, reinforce AR5 findings that if coastal \r societies do not adapt, flood risks will increase by 2-3 orders of \r magnitude reaching catastrophic levels by the end of the century, \r even under the lower end SLR expected under RCP2.6 (high \r confidence; Hinkel et al., 2014; Abadie et al., 2016; Diaz, 2016; \r Hunter et al., 2017; Lincke and Hinkel, 2018; Abadie, 2018; Brown \r et al., 2018a; Nicholls, 2018). In combination, these studies take \r into account a SLR scenario range wider than the likely range of \r AR5 but consistent with the range of projections assessed in this \r report (Section 4.2.3.2). For example, considering 25-123 cm of SLR \r in 2100, all SSPs and no adaptation, Hinkel et al. (2014) find that \r 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in \r 2100, with expected annual damages (EAD) amounting to 0.3-9.3% \r [...]"


id: afbefbb43bca779c1e6a2254adfe9f6b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28154
content:
"[...] of global GDP. Assessing 120 cities globally, Abadie (2018) find that \r under a weighted combination of the probabilistic scenarios, New \r Orleans and Guangzhou Guangdong rank highest with EAD above \r 1 trillion USD (not discounted) in each city. For Europe, EAD are \r expected to rise from 1.25 billion EUR today to 93-960 billion EUR \r by the end of the century (Vousdoukas et al., 2018b). Already today, \r many small islands face large flood damages relative to their GDP \r specifically through TCs (Cashman and Nagdee, 2017) and under SLR \r EAD can reach up to several percent of GDP in 2100, as highlighted in "


id: 928c3f3c91d7237a4556c67876662e56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23009
content:
"Studies also confirm AR5 findings that the relative costs and benefits \r of coastal adaptation are distributed unequally across countries and \r regions (high confidence; Wong et al., 2014; Diaz, 2016; Lincke and \r Hinkel, 2018; Tamura et al., 2019). For example, while the median cost \r of protection and retreat under RCP8.5 in 2050 has been estimated \r to be under 0.09% of national GDP, large relative costs are found for \r small island states such as the Marshall Islands (7.6%), the Maldives \r (7.5%), Tuvalu (4.6%) and Kiribati (4.1%; Diaz, 2016). Furthermore, \r on a global average and for urban and densely populated regions, \r hard protection is highly cost efficient with benefit-cost ratios up \r to 104\r , but for poorer and less densely populated areas benefit-cost \r ratios are generally smaller than one (Lincke and Hinkel, 2018). Hence, \r without substantial transfer payments supporting poor areas, coastal \r flood risks will evolve unequally during this century, with richer and \r [...]"


id: 205501e6497fb03feb9db202d131ee31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2908
content:
"[...] densely populated areas well protected behind hard structures and \r poorer less densely populated areas suffering losses and damages, \r and eventually retreating from the coast."


id: af33f30c9e2ea573117841e51464a48e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28064
content:
"Since AR5, however, there is growing appreciation and understanding \r of the ability of coastal systems to respond dynamically to SLR (Passeri \r et al., 2015; Lentz et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017). Most low-lying coastal \r systems exhibit important feedbacks between biological and physical \r processes (e.g., Wright and Nichols, 2018), that have allowed them \r to maintain a relatively stable morphology under moderate rates of \r SLR (<0.3 cm yr-1) over the past few millennia (Woodruff et al., 2013; \r Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1). In a global review on multi-decadal \r changes in the land area of 709 atoll islands, Duvat (2019) shows that \r in a context of more rapid SLR than the global mean (Becker et al., \r 2012; Palanisamy et al., 2014), 73.1% of islands were stable in area, \r while respectively 15.5% and 11.4% increased and decreased in size. \r While anthropogenic drivers played a major role, especially in urban \r [...]"


id: 91e6f60f13860d3d0d052fa5d62b5923
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22887
content:
"[...] islands (e.g., shoreline stabilisation by coastal defences, increase in \r island size as a result of reclamation works), this study and others \r (e.g., McLean and Kench, 2015) suggest that these islands have had \r the capacity to maintain their land area by naturally adjusting to SLR \r over the past decades (high confidence). However, it has been argued \r that this capacity could be reduced in the coming decades, due to the \r combination of higher rates of SLR, increased wave energy (Albert et al., \r 2016), changes in run-up (Shope et al., 2017) and storm wave direction \r (Harley et al., 2017), effects of ocean warming and acidification on \r critical ecosystems such as coral reefs (Section  4.3.3.5.2), and a \r continued increase in anthropogenic pressure."


id: 6d293853c7fa53e61d799965acd57e5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16484
content:
"While continental to global scale flood exposure and risk studies \r have also explored a wider range of uncertainty as compared to \r AR5, much remains to be done. All of these studies rely on global \r elevation data, but few studies have explored the underlying bias. \r For example, for the Po delta in Italy, it was found that elevation \r data based on the widely used Shuttle Radar Topography Mission \r (SRTM), Reuter et al. (2007) overestimates the 100-year floodplain by \r about 50% as compared to local Lidar data (Wolff et al., 2016), while \r in the Ria Formosa region in Portugal SRTM underestimates EAD by \r up to 50% depending on the resampled resolution of the Lidar data \r (Vousdoukas et al., 2018a). For the USA, SRTM data systemically \r underestimates population exposure below 3 m by more than 60% \r as compared to coastal Lidar data (Kulp and Strauss, 2016). A global \r scale comparison of major contributors to flood risk uncertainty \r [...]"


id: 3a13609b73f91a4e6b592a659b3b4463
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7431
content:
"direct (increased salinity) and indirect way (altered environmental \r conditions which change the behaviour of pollutants and microbes). \r In terms of direct impacts, statistical models and long-term (1950 to \r present) records of salinity show significant upward trends in salinity \r and a positive correlation between rising sea levels and increasing \r residual salinity, for example in the Delaware Estuary, USA (Ross \r et al., 2015). Higher salinity levels, further inland, have also been \r reported in the Gorai river basin, southwestern Bangladesh (Bhuiyan \r and Dutta, 2012), and in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. In the Mekong \r Delta for instance, salinity intrusion extends around 15  km inland \r during the rainy season and typically around 50 km during dry season \r (Gugliotta et al., 2017). Importantly, salinity intrusion in these deltas \r is caused by a variety of factors such as changes in discharge and \r water abstraction along with relative SLR. More broadly, the impact \r [...]"


id: 7b02d645ee68ea6ba535529bfbb33a92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18846
content:
"[...] of salinity intrusion can be significant in river deltas or low-lying \r wetlands, especially during low-flow periods such as in the dry season \r (Dessu et al., 2018). In Bangladesh, for instance, some freshwater fish \r species are expected to lose their habitat with increasing salinity, with \r profound consequences on fish-dependent communities (Dasgupta \r et al., 2017). In the Florida Coastal Everglades, sea level increasingly \r exceeds ground surface elevation at the most downstream freshwater \r sites, affecting marine-to-freshwater hydrologic connectivity and \r transport of salinity and phosphorous upstream from the Gulf of \r Mexico. The impact of SLR is higher in the dry season when there \r is practically no freshwater inflow (Dessu et al., 2018). Salinity \r intrusion was shown to cause shifts in the diatom assemblages, \r with expected cascading effects through the food web (Mazzei and \r Gaiser, 2018). Salinisation of surface water may lead to limitations \r [...]"


id: 33b686281cf0f61f842213024f07f01b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6343
content:
"[...] in drinking water supply (Wilbers et al., 2014), as well as to future \r fresh water shortage in reservoirs, for example in Shanghai (Li et al., \r 2015). Salinity changes the partitioning and mobility of some metals, \r and hence their concentration or speciation in the water bodies \r (Noh et al., 2013; Wong et al., 2015; de Souza Machado et al., 2018). \r Varying levels of salinity also influence the abundance and toxicity of \r Vibrio cholerae in the Ganges Delta (Batabyal et al., 2016)."


id: cacd9f7777ec924e5299af47b21145f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33022
content:
"These changes will affect both freshwater availability (for drinking \r water supply and agriculture) and vegetation dynamics. At many \r locations, however, direct anthropogenic influences, such as \r groundwater pumping for agricultural or urban uses, already impact \r salinisation of coastal aquifers more strongly than what is expected \r from SLR in the 21st century (Ferguson and Gleeson, 2012; Jimenez \r Cisneros et al., 2014; Uddameri et al., 2014), with trade-offs in terms \r of groundwater depletion that may contribute to anthropogenic \r subsidence and thus increase coastal flood risk. Recent studies also \r suggest that the influence of land-surface inundation on seawater \r intrusion and resulting salinisation of groundwater lenses on \r small islands has been underestimated until now (Ataie-Ashtiani \r et al., 2013; Ketabchi et al., 2014). Such impacts will potentially also \r combine with a projected drying of most of the tropical-to-temperate \r [...]"


id: 2db5b11edc263de118fb603195302a38
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5335
content:
"Coral reefs are considered to be the marine ecosystem most \r threatened by climate-related ocean change, especially ocean \r warming and acidification, even under an RCP2.6 scenario (Gattuso \r et al., 2015; Albright et al., 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Diaz \r et al., 2019; Section 5.3.4). AR5 concluded that 'a number of coral \r reefs could [...] keep up with the maximum rate of SLR of 15.1 mm \r yr-1 projected for the end of the century [...] (medium confidence) \r [but a future net accretion rate lower] than during the Holocene \r (Perry et al., 2013) and increased turbidity (Storlazzi et al., 2011) \r will weaken this capability (very high confidence)' (Wong et al., \r 2014: 379). Subsequently, some studies suggested that SLR may \r have negligible impacts on coral reefs' vertical growth because the \r projected rate and magnitude of SLR by 2100 are within the potential \r accretion rates of most coral reefs (van Woesik et al., 2015). Other \r [...]"


id: aeb283c39f22455fc66f9cb57117c611
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27971
content:
"[...] studies, however, stressed that the overall net vertical accretion of \r reefs may decrease after the first 30 years of rise in a 1.2  m SLR \r scenario (Hamylton et al., 2014), and that most reefs will not be able \r to keep up with SLR under RCP4.5 and beyond (Perry et al., 2018). The \r SR1.5 also concludes that coral reefs 'are projected to decline by a \r further 70-90% at 1.5oC (high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) \r at 2oC (very high confidence)' (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018: 10). A key \r point is that SLR will not act in isolation of other drivers. Cumulative \r impacts, including anthropogenic drivers, are estimated to reduce the \r ability of coral reefs to keep pace with future SLR (Hughes et al., \r 2017; Yates et al., 2017) and thereby reduce the capacity of reefs to \r provide sediments and protection to coastal areas. For example, the \r combination of reef erosion due to acidification and human-induced \r [...]"


id: 4582cde9b6f86c471d760f3ba04779c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9446
content:
"[...] mechanical destruction is altering seafloor topography, increasing \r risks from SLR in carbonate sediment dominated regions (Yates et al., \r 2017). Both ocean acidification (Albright et al., 2018; Eyre et al., 2018) \r and ocean warming (Perry and Morgan, 2017) have been considered \r to slow future growth rates and reef accretion (Section 5.3.4). Recent \r literature also shows that alterations of coral reef 3D structure from \r changes in growth, breakage, disease or acidification can profoundly \r affect their ability to buffer waves impacts (through wave breaking \r and wave energy damping), and therefore keep-up with SLR (Yates \r et al., 2017; Harris et al., 2018). Such prospects contribute to raise \r concerns about the future ability of atoll islands to adjust naturally \r to SLR and persist (Section 4.3.3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 9). Another \r concern is that locally, even minimal SLR can increase turbidity on \r fringing reefs, reducing light and, therefore, photosynthesis and \r [...]"


id: 12c228e5b15e562538b9e40c40912bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 501
content:
"[...] calcification. SLR-induced turbidity can be caused by increased \r coastal erosion and the transfer of sediment to nearby reefs and \r enhanced sediment resuspension (Field et al., 2011)."


id: 3164770768cd37150098645f1ca8a1b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5935
content:
"While recent reviews suggest that mangroves' surface accretion \r rate will keep pace with a high SLR scenario (RCP8.5) up to years \r 2055 and 2070 in fringe and basin mangrove settings, respectively \r (Sasmito et al., 2016), process-based models of vertical marsh \r growth that incorporate biological and physical feedbacks support \r survival under rates of SLR as high as 1-5 cm yr-1 before drowning \r (Kirwan et al., 2016). Threshold rates of SLR before marsh drowning \r however vary significantly from site-to-site and can be substantially \r lower than 1 cm yr-1 in micro-tidal regions where the tidal trapping \r of sediment is reduced and/or in areas with low sediment availability \r (Lovelock et al., 2015; Ganju et al., 2017; Jankowski et al., 2017; \r Watson et al., 2017). Global environmental change may also to lead \r to changes in growth rates, productivity and geographic distribution \r of different mangrove and marsh species, including the replacement \r [...]"


id: 99e2cf8b6d9d9a3c4c659da98af61d48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24303
content:
"[...] of environmentally sensitive species by those possessing greater \r climatic tolerance (Krauss et al., 2014; Reef and Lovelock, 2014; \r Coldren et al., 2019). Processes impacting lateral changes at the \r marsh boundary including wave erosion are just as important, if not \r more, than vertical accretion rates in determining coastal wetland \r survival (e.g., Mariotti and Carr, 2014). For most low-lying coastlines, \r a seaward loss of wetland area due to marsh retreat could be offset \r by a similar landward migration of coastal wetlands (Kirwan and \r Megonigal, 2013; Schile et al., 2014), this landward migration having "


id: 97caf48fbb5a4356beb6f9d33da8374
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23920
content:
"Due to their natural capacity to enhance accretion and in the \r absence of mechanical or chemical destruction by human activities, \r seagrasses are not expected to be severely affected by SLR, except \r indirectly through the increase of the impacts of extreme weather \r events and waves on coastal morphology (i.e., erosion) as well as \r through changes in light levels and through effects on adjacent \r ecosystems (Saunders et al., 2013). Extreme flooding events have \r also been shown to cause large-scale losses of seagrass habitats \r (Bandeira and Gell, 2003), for example seagrasses in Queensland, \r Australia, were lost in a disastrous flooding event (Campbell and \r McKenzie, 2004). Changes in ocean currents can have either positive \r or negative effects on seagrasses, creating new space for seagrasses \r to grow or eroding seagrass beds (Bjork et al., 2008). But overall, \r seagrass will primarily be negatively affected by the direct effects \r [...]"


id: 5722a41281dca769baa4ee30368b44a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12584
content:
"[...] of increased sea temperature on growth rates and the occurrence \r of disease (Marba and Duarte, 2010; Burge et al., 2013; Koch et al., \r 2013; Thompson et al., 2015; Chefaoui et al., 2018; Gattuso et al., \r 2018; Section 5.3.2) as well as by heavy rains that may dilute the \r seawater to a lower salinity. Such impacts will be exacerbated by \r major causes of seagrass decline including coastal eutrophication, \r siltation and coastal development (Waycott et al., 2009). Noteworthy \r is that some positive impacts are expected, as ocean acidification \r is expected to benefit photosynthesis and growth rates of seagrass \r (Repolho et al., 2017)."


id: 8f001e2fed4301412c8d0a6b1b23c864
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22354
content:
"SLR will affect agriculture mainly through land submergence, soil \r and fresh groundwater resources salinisation, and land loss due \r to permanent coastal erosion, with consequences on production, \r livelihood diversification and food security, especially in heavily \r coastal agriculture-dependent countries such as Bangladesh \r (Khanom, 2016). Recent literature confirms that salinisation is \r already a major problem for traditional agriculture in deltas (Wong \r et al., 2014; Khai et al., 2018) and low-lying island nations where \r some edible cultivated plants such as taro patches are threatened \r (Nunn et al., 2017b). Taking the case of rice cultivation, recent works \r emphasise the prevailing role of combined surface elevation and soil \r salinity, such as in the Mekong delta (Vietnam; Smajgl et al., 2015) \r and in the Ebro delta (Spain; Genua-Olmedo et al., 2016), estimating \r for the latter a decrease in the rice production index from 61.2% in \r [...]"


id: b592f2024680e9b4dd79db845f9449ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29173
content:
"[...] 2010 to 33.8% by 2100 in a 1.8 m SLR scenario. For seven wetland \r species occurring in coastal freshwater marshes in central Veracruz \r on the Gulf of Mexico, an increase in salinity was shown to affect the \r germination process under wetland salt intrusion (Sanchez-Garcia \r et al., 2017). In coastal Bangladesh, oilseed, sugarcane and \r jute cultivation was reported to be already discontinued due to \r challenges to cope with current salinity levels (Khanom, 2016), and \r salinity is projected to have an unambiguously negative influence \r on all dry-season crops over the next 15-45 years (especially in the \r southwest; Clarke et al., 2018; Kabir et al., 2018). Salinity intrusion \r and salinisation can trigger land use changes towards brackish or \r saline aquaculture such as shrimp or rice-shrimp systems with \r impacts on environment, livelihoods and income stability (Renaud \r et al., 2015). However, increasing salinity is only one of the land use \r [...]"


id: 5d991216a0a272bc300ba8a96f80fd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13754
content:
"[...] change drivers along with, for example, policy changes and market \r prices at the household level (Renaud et al., 2015)."


id: bfb51bba5b836c6e50550ac25f133d59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31011
content:
"Major 'protection' benefits derived from the above-mentioned coastal \r ecosystems include wave attenuation and shoreline stabilisation, \r for example, by coral reefs (Elliff and Silva, 2017; Siegle and Costa, \r 2017), mangroves (Zhang et al., 2012; Barbier, 2016; Menendez et al., \r 2018) or salt marshes (Moller et al., 2014; Hu et al., 2015). Recently, \r a global meta-analysis of 69 studies demonstrated that, on average, \r these ecosystems together reduced wave heights between 35-71% \r at the limited locations considered (Narayan et al., 2016), with coral \r reefs, salt marshes, mangroves and seagrass/kelp beds reducing wave \r heights by 54-81%, 62-79%, 25-37% and 25-45% respectively \r (see Narayan et al., 2016 for map of locations considered). Additional \r studies suggest greater wave attenuation in mangrove systems \r (Horstman et al., 2014), and highlight broader complexities in wave \r attenuation related to total tidal wetland extent, water depth, and \r [...]"


id: 7246c57426aadeb8c7e754335916d937
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17350
content:
"[...] species. Global analyses show that natural and artificial seagrasses \r can attenuate wave height and energy by as much as 40% and 50%, \r respectively (Fonseca and Cahalan, 1992; John et al., 2015), while \r coral reefs have been observed to reduce total wave energy by 94-\r 98% (n = 13; Ferrario et al., 2014) and wave driven flooding volume \r by 72% (Beetham et al., 2017). In addition, storm surge attenuation \r based on a recent literature review by Stark et al. (2015) range from \r -2-25 cm km-1 length of marsh, where the negative value denotes \r actual amplification. Other ecosystems provide coastal protection, \r including macroalgae, oyster and mussel beds, and also beaches, \r dunes and barrier islands, but there is less understanding of the \r level of protection conferred by these other organisms and habitats \r (Spalding et al., 2014)."


id: 2efda010368d077e4d3ed90c97348ad0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5541
content:
"better reflect context-specificities in valuing the physical/ecological/\r human/cultural impacts' importance for and distribution within a \r given society (Fatoric and Seekamp, 2017b). This field of research \r (no detailed mention found in AR5) is just emerging due to the \r transdisciplinary and qualitative nature of the topic. Graham et al. \r (2013) advance a 5-category framing of social values specifically at \r risk from SLR: health (i.e., the social determinants of survival such as \r environmental and housing quality and healthy lifestyles), feeling of \r safety (e.g., financial and job security), belongingness (i.e., attachment \r to places and people), self-esteem (e.g., social status or pride that can \r be affected by coastal retreat), and self-actualisation (i.e., people's \r efforts to define their own identity). Another emerging issue relates \r to social values at risk due to land submergence in low-lying islands \r [...]"


id: 2c4b8d24f8c5b25d74820d3618952df9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5058
content:
"[...] (Yamamoto and Esteban, 2014) and parts of countries and individual \r properties (Marino, 2012; Maldonado et al., 2013; Aerts, 2017; \r Allgood and McNamara, 2017). Recent studies also highlight the \r potential additional risks to social values in areas where displaced \r people relocate (Davis et al., 2018)."


id: dc4b3cf48cc3ccaaa09fe6a41269c6fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36027
content:
"however also depend on changes in air temperature, seasonality and \r sea surface temperature (including induced effects such as invasive \r species, e.g., jellyfishes, and disease spreading; Burge et al., 2014; \r Weatherdon et al., 2016; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Section 5.4.2). \r Future changes in climatic conditions in tourists' areas of origin will \r also play a role in reshaping tourism flows (Bujosa and Rossello, \r 2013; Amelung and Nicholls, 2014), in addition to mitigation policies \r on air transportation, non-climatic features (e.g., accommodation \r and travel prices) and tourists' and tourism developers' perceptions \r of climate-related changes (Shakeela and Becken, 2015). Since AR5, \r forecasting the consequences of climate change effects on global-to\u0002local tourism flows has remained challenging (Rossello-Nadal, 2014; \r Wong et al., 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). There are also \r concerns about the effect of SLR on tourism facilities, for example \r [...]"


id: 7af0a3ea66444e5276dcd2a6deeaaf8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18830
content:
"[...] hotels in Ghana (Sagoe-Addy and Addo, 2013), in a context where \r tourism infrastructure often contributes to the degradation of \r natural buffering environments through, for example, coastal \r squeeze (e.g., Section  4.3.2.4) and human-driven coastal erosion. \r Again, forecasting is constrained by the lack of scientific studies on \r tourism stakeholders' long-term strategies and adaptive capacity \r (Hoogendoorn and Fitchett, 2018)."


id: e0d220273be3cf5de7794d5e65f6da91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36814
content:
"SLR projections for the 21st century, together with other ocean \r related changes (e.g.,  acidification and warming) and the possible \r increase in human-driven pressures at the coast (e.g., demographic \r and settlement patterns), make low-lying islands, coasts and \r communities relevant illustrations of some of the five Reasons for \r Concern (RFCs) developed by the IPCC since the Third Assessment \r Report (McCarthy et al., 2001; Smith et al., 2001) to assess risks from \r a global perspective. The AR5 Synthesis Report (IPCC, 2014) as well \r as the more recent SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) refined the \r RFC approach. The AR5 Synthesis Report (IPCC, 2014) developed two \r additional RFCs related to the coasts, subsequently updated along \r with the other RFCs (O'Neill et al., 2017). One refers to risks to marine \r species arising from ocean acidification, and the other one refers to \r risks to human and natural systems from SLR. Despite the difficulty in \r [...]"


id: dfb82a1fb6d3b1d88bf2305b0a4d9ab3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36606
content:
"[...] attributing observed impacts to SLR per se (Section 4.3.3.1), O'Neill \r et al. (2017) estimate that risks related to SLR are already detectable \r globally and will increase rapidly, so that high risk may occur before \r a 1m rise level is reached. O'Neill et al. (2017) also suggest that \r limits to coastal protection and EbA by 2100 could occur in a 1 m \r SLR rise scenario. Previous assessments however left gaps, including \r quantifying the benefits from adaptation in terms of risk reduction. "


id: a9cb43329a4db8a3fc63fb5d279883
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27096
content:
"Recent studies support the AR5 conclusion that ocean warming and \r acidification are considered more influential drivers of change in \r fisheries and aquaculture than SLR (Larsen et al., 2014; Nurse et al., \r 2014; Wong et al., 2014). The negative effects of SLR on fisheries \r and aquaculture are indirect, through adverse impacts on habitats \r (e.g.,  coral reef degradation, reduced water quality in deltas and \r estuarine environments, soil salinisation, etc.), as well as on facilities \r (e.g., damage to small and large harbours). This makes future \r projections on SLR implications for coastal and marine fisheries and \r aquaculture an understudied field of research. Conclusions only \r state that future impacts will be highly context-specific due to local \r manifestations of SLR and local fishery-dependent communities' \r ability to adapt to alterations in fish and aquaculture conditions and \r productivity (Hollowed et al., 2013; Weatherdon et al., 2016). Salinity \r [...]"


id: 79ba265de6e56f399cf7abb42c734f6e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18621
content:
"[...] intrusion also contributes to conversion of land or freshwater ponds \r to brackish or saline aquaculture in many low-lying coastal areas \r of Southeast Asia such as in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam (Renaud \r et al., 2015)."


id: d294875c00e974d9d07287451b670cf9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34401
content:
"Adaptation scenarios - Risk will also depend on the effectiveness \r of coastal societies' responses to both extreme events and slow onset \r changes. To capture the response dimension, four metrics have been \r considered that refer to the implementation of adequately calibrated \r hard, engineered coastal defences (Section 4.4.2.2), the restoration \r of the degraded ecosystems or the creation of new natural buffers \r areas (Section 4.4.2.2 and 4.4.2.3), planned and local-scale relocation \r (Section 4.4.2.6), and measures to limit human-induced subsidence \r (Sections 4.4.2.2, 4.4.2.5). On these bases, two contrasting adaptation \r scenarios were considered. The first one is called 'No-to-moderate \r response' (see (A) bars in Panel B, Figure  4.3) and represents a \r business-as-usual scenario where no major additional adaptation \r efforts compared to today are implemented. That is, neither \r substantial intensification of current actions nor new types of actions, \r [...]"


id: ad6b5117aed2e81e4a52b3372a1a04e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27749
content:
"[...] e.g.,  only moderate raising of existing protections in high-density \r areas or sporadic episodes of relocation or beach nourishment where \r largescale efforts are not already underway. The second one, called \r 'Maximum potential response' (bars (B) in Figure 4.3), refers to an \r ambitious combination of both incremental and transformational \r adaptation (i.e., significantly upscaled effort); for example, relocation \r of entire districts or raised protections in some cities, or creation/\r restoration at a significant scale of beach-dune systems including \r indigenous vegetation. "


id: c88f6b639f797c88e3c11c27acc41c8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32595
content:
"Risks considered - In line with the AR5 (IPCC, 2014), current and \r future risks result from the interaction of SLR-related hazards with \r the vulnerability of exposed ecosystems and societies. According \r to the specific scope of the chapter, this assessment focusses on \r the additional risks due to SLR and does not account for changes \r in extreme event climatology. Hazards considered are coastal \r flooding (Section 4.3.4.2), erosion (Section 4.3.4.3) and salinisation \r (Section  4.3.4.4). The proxies used to describe exposure and \r vulnerability are the density of assets at the coast (Section 4.3.2.2) \r and the level of degradation of natural buffering by marine and \r terrestrial ecosystems (Sections 4.3.2.3, 4.3.3.5.4, and 5.3.2 to \r 5.3.4). The assessment especially addresses risks to human assets \r at the coast, including populations, infrastructures and livelihoods. \r Specific metrics were developed (see SM4.3 for details), and their \r [...]"


id: 26bc0db12410480301d4628e9293750f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3971
content:
"[...] contribution to present-day observed impacts and to end-century risk \r have been assessed based on the authors' expert judgment and a \r methodological grid presented in SM4.3 (SM4.3.1 to SM4.3.6). The \r author's expert judgment draws on Sections 4.3.3.2 to 4.3.3.5 as well \r as additional literature for local scale perspectives (SM4.3.9). "


id: d7fbe46867149f7da28360b6c3c4ce2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35304
content:
"The findings suggest that risks from SLR are already detectable for all \r of the geographies considered (Panel B in Figure 4.3), and that risk is \r expected to increase over this century in virtually all low-lying coastal \r areas whatever their context-specificities or nature (island/continental, \r developed/developing county) (Cross-Chapter Box 9). In the absence \r of high adaptation (bars (A)), risk is expected to significantly increase \r in urban atoll islands and the selected Arctic coastal communities \r even in a SROCC RCP2.6 scenario, and all geographies are expected \r to experience almost high to very high risks at the upper likely range \r of SROCC RCP8.5. These results allow refining AR5 conclusions by \r showing, first, that high risk can indeed occur before the 1m rise \r benchmark (Oppenheimer et al., 2014; O'Neill et al., 2017) and, second, \r that risk as a function of SLR is highly variable from one geography \r [...]"


id: 4eb628c38430764c5138470febf66c92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11121
content:
"[...] to another. Some rationale is provided below for our assessment of \r illustrative geographies, summarising the more detailed description \r provided in SM4.3 (SM4.3.6 to SM4.3.8). Note however that the \r text below is not intended to be fully comprehensive and does not \r necessarily include all elements for which there is a substantive body \r of literature, nor does it necessarily include all elements which are of \r particular interest to decision makers."


id: c36a8555b7ea6fc8dc0edab26a150b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31654
content:
"Sea level rise scenarios - Based on the updates for ranges and \r mean values developed in this chapter (Section 4.2, Table 4.3), this \r assessment considers the end-century GMSL (2100) relative to 1986-\r 2005 levels for two scenarios, SROCC RCP2.6 and SROCC RCP8.5. \r Both mean values and the SROCC RCP8.5 upper end of the likely range \r are used to assess risk transitions (Figure 4.3, Panel A). For the sake \r of readability, the following values were used: 43 cm (mean SROCC \r RCP2.6), 84 cm (mean SROCC RCP8.5) and 110 cm (SROCC RCP8.5 \r upper end of likely range). While GMSL serves as a representation of \r different possible climate change scenarios (see Panel A in Figure 4.3, \r Section  4.1.2), the assessment of additional risks due to SLR \r on specific geographies is developed against end-century relative SLR \r (RSL) in order to allow a geographically accurate approach (Panel B, \r Figure 4.3). Accordingly, risk was assessed to illustrative geographies \r [...]"


id: 17429cd69c5ecb4429de0bd561ab365e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1314
content:
"[...] based on RSLs for each of the two SROCC RCP scenarios and each \r of the real-world case studies to (SM4.3.6 and Table SM4.3.2; see \r dotted lines in Panel B of Figure 4.3). RSL observations include some \r or all of the following VLMs: both uplift (e.g., due to tectonics) and \r subsidence due to natural  (e.g., tectonics,  sediment  compaction) \r and human (e.g., oil/gas/water extraction, mining activities) factors, \r as well as to GIA. However, in SROCC, numerical RSL  projections \r only include GIA and the regional gravitational, rotational, and \r deformational responses (GRD, see Section 4.2.1.5) to ice mass loss. "


id: b3053079f8870eb6bc0bcd5103ccc6b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28740
content:
"population, and high exposure of people and infrastructure to \r GMSL rise and ESL events characterise coastal megacities (Hanson \r et al., 2011). These are high concentrations of income and wealth \r in geographic terms but within relatively small area exhibit large \r distributional differences of both with important implications for \r emergency response and adaptation. Concentration translates into \r high exposure of monetary value to coastal hazards and the cities \r noted here have both historical and recent experience with damaging \r ESL events, such as Typhoon Winnie which struck Shanghai in 1997 \r (Xian et al., 2018), Hurricane Sandy in New York in 2012 (Rosenzweig \r and Solecki, 2014), and the North Sea storm of 1953 which impacted \r the Rotterdam area (Gerritsen, 2005; Jonkman et al., 2008). However, \r high density, limited space and high cost of land leads to development \r of below-ground space for transportation (e.g.,  subways, road \r [...]"


id: a44f063cf20b9b1270abca6da2b98648
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26109
content:
"[...] tunnels; MTA, 2017) and storage, and even habitation, creating \r vulnerabilities not seen in low-density areas. Natural ecosystems \r within the megacity boundaries and nearby have been exploited for \r centuries and in some cases decimated or even extirpated (Hartig \r et al., 2002). Accordingly, they provide limited benefits in terms of \r coastal protection for the densest part of these cities but can be \r critically important for protection of lower-density areas, for example, \r wetlands and sandy beaches in the Jamaica Bay/Rockaway sector of \r New York that protect nearby residential communities (Hartig et al., \r 2002). Space limitations also constrain the potential benefits of EbA \r measures. Instead, resource-rich coastal cities depend largely on \r hard defences like sea walls and surge barriers for coastal protection \r (Section 4.4.2.2). Such defences are costly but generally cost effective \r due to the aforementioned concentration of population and value. \r [...]"


id: 917f5a167ae018826d90dd00a7804efd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22811
content:
"[...] However, barriers to planning and implementing adaptation include \r governance challenges (Section 4.4.2) such as limited control over \r finances and the intermittent nature of ESLs which inhibit focused \r attention over the long time scales needed to plan and implement \r hard defences (Section 4.4.2.2). As a result, coastal adaptation for \r resource-rich cities is uneven and the three presented here were \r selected with a view toward exhibiting a range of current and \r potential future effectiveness."


id: c6bdf398d310aa17df351c2b737a4539
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32268
content:
"The controlling factors of urban atoll islands' future habitability are \r the density of assets exposed to marine flooding and coastal erosion \r (SM4.3.8.2), future trends in these hazards, and ecosystem response \r to both ocean-climate related pressures and human activities. Urban \r atoll islands already experience coastal flooding, for example, \r in Male' (Wadey et al., 2017) and Funafuti (Yamano et al., 2007; \r McCubbin et al., 2015). Coastal erosion is also a major concern along \r non-armoured shoreline in South Tarawa (Duvat et al., 2013) and \r Fongafale (Onaka et al., 2017), but not in Male' where surrounding \r fortifications have extended along almost the entire shoreline \r from several decades (Naylor, 2015). Salinisation already affects \r groundwater lenses, but its contribution to risk varies from one case \r to another, from low in Male' (relying on desalinised seawater) to \r important for human consumption and agriculture in South Tarawa \r [...]"


id: 6b5ba7328782741138448758a9a8282b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16188
content:
"Together, high population densities (from ~3,200 people per km2\r  in \r South Tarawa to ~65,700 people per km2\r  in Male') (Government of the \r Maldives, 2014; McIver et al., 2015) and the concentration of critical \r infrastructure and settlements in naturally low-lying flood-prone areas \r already substantially contribute to coastal risk (Duvat et al., 2013; Field \r et al., 2017). Even stabilised densities in the future would translate \r into a substantial increase of risk under a 43cm GMSL rise. Risk will \r also be exacerbated by the negative effects of ocean warming and \r acidification, especially on coral reef and mangrove capacity to cope \r with SLR (Pendleton et al., 2016; Van Hooidonk et al., 2016; Perry and \r Morgan, 2017; Perry et al., 2018) (Sections 4.3.3.5, 5.3). In addition, \r even small values of SLR will significantly increase risk to atoll islands' \r aquifers (Bailey et al., 2016; Storlazzi et al., 2018). Finally, land scarcity \r [...]"


id: f23c168a4794c35ea0c366fd4949ceeb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40012
content:
"[...] in atoll environments will exacerbate the importance of SLR induced \r damages (on housing, agriculture and infrastructure especially) \r and cascading impacts (on livelihoods, for example, as a result of \r groundwater and soil salinisation). "


id: 56ebebb301095b93a8d28611af51b53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12542
content:
"Large tropical agricultural deltas (SM4.3.8.3, Panel B in \r Figure 4.3) - River deltas considered in this analysis are the Mekong \r Delta and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. Both deltas \r are large, low-lying and dominated by agricultural production. The \r risk assessment to SLR considered the entire delta area (not only \r the coastal fringe; see SM4.3.6 for explanation). High population \r densities (1280 people per km2\r   and 433 people per km2  in the \r Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Mekong deltas, respectively) \r (Ericson et al., 2006; Government of the Maldives, 2014) and the \r removal of natural vegetation buffers contribute to high exposure \r rates to coastal flooding, erosion, and salinisation. Agricultural \r production contributes to GDP strongly (Smajgl et al., 2015; Hossain \r et al., 2018), making agricultural fields important assets. In both \r deltas, mangroves are partially degraded (Ghosh et al., 2018; \r [...]"


id: 349651abf8ba5bd13c759aecad70ccdb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6490
content:
"[...] Veettil et al., 2018) as well as other wetlands at the coast and \r further inland (Quan et al., 2018a; Rahman et al., 2018). Currently, \r riverine flooding dominates in both deltas (Auerbach et al., 2015; \r Rahman and Rahman, 2015; Ngan et al., 2018). However, high tides \r and cyclones can generate large coastal flooding events, especially \r in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (Auerbach et al., 2015; \r Rahman and Rahman, 2015). Human-induced subsidence increases \r the likelihood of flooding in both deltas (Brown et al., 2018b). \r Coastal and river bank erosion is already a problem in both delta "


id: 6774dfbede25d44fd37d949672fe5fa7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15468
content:
"Urban atoll islands (SM4.3.8.2, Panel B in Figure 4.3) - The capital \r islands (or groups of islands) of three atoll nations in the Pacific and \r Indian Oceans are considered here: Fongafale (Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu), \r the South Tarawa Urban District (Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati) and Male' \r (North Kaafu Atoll, Maldives). Urban atoll islands have low elevation \r (<4 m above mean sea level; in South Tarawa, e.g., lagoon sides where \r settlement concentrates are <1.80 m in elevation) (Duvat, 2013) and \r are mainly composed of reef-derived unconsolidated material. Their \r future is of nation-wide importance as they concentrate populations, \r economic activities and critical infrastructure (airports, main \r harbours). They illustrate the prominence of anthropogenic-driven \r disturbances to marine and terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., mangrove \r clearing in South Tarawa or human-induced coral reef degradation \r through land reclamation in Male'; Duvat et al., 2013; Naylor, 2015) \r [...]"


id: 7c747ab1902e10e3c819fc1aeb99e888
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19098
content:
"[...] and therefore to services such as coastal protection delivered by the \r coral reef (i.e., wave energy attenuation that reduces flooding and \r erosion, and sediment provision that contributes to island persistence \r over time) (McLean and Kench, 2015; Quataert et al., 2015; Elliff and \r Silva, 2017; Storlazzi et al., 2018)."


id: ef36e0a37af642323089b0f98572449a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39456
content:
"(Anthony et al., 2015; Brown and Nicholls, 2015; Li et al., 2017) as \r well as salinity intrusion, which is impacting coastal aquifers, soils \r and surface waters (Anthony et al., 2015; Brown and Nicholls, 2015; \r Li et al., 2017). Salinisation of water and soil resources remains a \r coastal phenomenon (Smajgl et al., 2015), but salinity intrusion can \r reach far inland in some extreme years and significantly contribute \r to risk at the delta scale (Section 4.3.3.4.2). Both deltas are partly \r protected with hard engineered defences such as dikes and sluice \r gates to prevent riverine flooding, and polders and dikes in some \r coastal stretches to prevent salinity intrusion and storm surges \r (Smajgl et al., 2015; Rogers and Overeem, 2017; Warner et al., \r 2018a). Today, in both deltas, the measures implemented to restore \r natural buffers are still limited to mangroves ecosystems (Quan et al., \r 2018a; Rahman et al., 2018), and the measures aiming at reducing \r [...]"


id: 74ebf14cfbbf4b6df849fcc3c25f202c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17804
content:
"[...] subsidence are underdeveloped (Schmidt, 2015; Schmitt et al., \r 2017). Assuming stable population densities in the future, coastal \r flooding will contribute increasingly to risk at the delta level (Brown \r and Nicholls, 2015; Brown et al., 2018a; Dang et al., 2018). Coastal \r erosion will increase (Anthony et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2017a; Uddin \r et al., 2019) and salinisation of coastal waters and soils will be more \r significant (Tran Anh et al., 2018; Vu et al., 2018; Rakib et al., 2019) \r and will strongly impact agriculture and water supply for the entire \r delta (Jiang et al., 2018; Timsina et al., 2018; Nhung et al., 2019). \r Without increased adaptation, coastal ecosystems will be largely \r destroyed at 110 cm of SLR (Schmitt et al., 2017; Mehvar et al., 2019; \r Mukul et al., 2019). Given the size of these deltas, it is only under \r high emission scenarios, that flooding, erosion and salinisation lead \r to high risk at the entire delta scale."


id: 794e7f5a91c828f73ac0dad8dba46c15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18536
content:
"Arctic communities (SM4.3.8.4, Panel B in Figure 4.3) - Five small \r indigenous settlements located on the Arctic Coastal Plain are \r considered in this analysis: Bykovsky (Lena Delta, Russian Federation), \r Shishmaref and Kivalina (Alaska, USA), and Shingle Point and \r Tuktoyaktuk (Mackenzie Delta, Canada). They lie on exposed coasts \r composed of unlithified ice-rich sediments in permafrost, in areas \r with seasonal sea ice and slow to moderate SLR. These communities \r have populations ranging from 380 to 900 (fewer and seasonal at \r Shingle Point) that are heavily dependent on marine subsistence \r resources (Forbes, 2011; Ford et al., 2016a). Shishmaref and Kivalina \r are located on low-lying barrier islands highly susceptible to rising \r sea level (Marino, 2012; Bronen and Chapin, 2013; Fang et al., 2018; \r Rolph et al., 2018). Shingle Point is situated on an active gravel spit; \r Tuktoyaktuk is built on low ground with high concentrations of \r [...]"


id: f666661cc602225bffa297ab4a5bef6e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40716
content:
"[...] massive ice; and Bykovsky is mostly situated on an ice-rich eroding \r terrace about 20 m above sea level. All the selected communities are \r remote from regions of rapid positive GIA; many other areas in the \r Arctic experience rapid GIA uplift (James et al., 2015; Forbes et al., \r 2018) and have very low sensitivity to SLR, which may in fact help to \r reduce shoaling."


id: a8bc01874d033a4cc7dce7d4d841f443
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26893
content:
"The assessment also shows that benefits in terms of risk reduction \r over this century are to be expected from ambitious adaptation efforts \r (bars (B), Sections 4.4.2, 4.4.3 and 4.4.3). In the case of resource-rich \r coastal cities especially, adequately engineered coastal defences can \r play a decisive role in reducing risk (Section  4.4.2.2, Box  4.1), for \r example from high to moderate at the SROCC RCP8.5 upper likely\r range. In other contexts, such as atoll islands for example, while \r engineered protection structures will reduce risk of flooding, they will \r not necessarily prevent seawater infiltration due to the permeable \r nature of the island substratum. So even adequate coastal protection \r would not eliminate risk (SM4.3.8.3). In urban atoll islands, large \r tropical agricultural deltas and the selected Arctic communities, \r ambitious adaptation efforts mixing adequate coastal defences, the \r restoration and creation of buffering ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs), \r [...]"


id: 5a4e087f6f2a669c205fd01f2877d6c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13136
content:
"[...] and a moderate amount of relocation are expected to reduce risk. For \r resource-rich coastal cities, adequately engineered hard protection \r can virtually eliminate risk of flooding up to 84  cm except for \r residual risk of structural failure (Sections 4.4.2 to 4.4.5). Benefits \r are relatively important in a 84  cm SLR scenario, as they reduce \r risk from high-to-very-high to moderate-to-high (atolls, Arctic) and \r from moderate-to-high to moderate (deltas). These benefits become \r more modest when approaching the upper likely range of SROCC \r RCP8.5, and risk tends to return to high-to-very-high (atolls, Arctic) \r levels once the 110 cm rise in sea level is reached. Noteworthy in \r urban atoll islands, intensified proactive coastal relocation (e.g., \r relocation of buildings and infrastructures that are very close to the \r shoreline) is expected to play a substantial role in risk reduction "


id: c43fbcfa95c79d41fd141d060df56902
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31812
content:
"SLR responses refer to legislation, plans and actions undertaken to \r reduce risk and build resilience in the face of SLR (see Cross-Chapter \r Box 3 in Chapter 1). These responses range from protecting the coast, \r accommodating SLR impacts, retreating from the coast, advancing \r into the ocean by building seawards and EbA (Box 4.3). Identifying \r the most appropriate way to respond to SLR is not straightforward \r and is politically and socially contested with a range of governance \r challenges (also called barriers) arising. This section first assesses \r the post-AR5 literature on the different types of SLR responses \r (i.e., protection, accommodation, advance, retreat and EbA) in terms \r of their effectiveness, technical limits, costs, benefits, co-benefits, \r drawbacks, economic efficiency and barriers, and the specific \r governance challenges associated with each type of response \r (Section  4.4.2). It then identifies a set of overarching governance \r [...]"


id: eead361542ab7675043080bcc2974a61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39370
content:
"[...] challenges that arise from the nature of SLR, such as its long-term \r commitment and uncertainty, and the associated politically and \r socially contested choices that need to be made (Section 4.4.3). Next, \r planning, public participation, conflict resolution and decision analysis \r approaches and tools are assessed that, when applied in combination, \r can help to address the governance challenges identified, facilitating \r social choices about SLR responses (Section  4.4.4). Finally, enablers \r and lessons learned from practical efforts to implement SLR responses \r are assessed (Section 4.4.5), concluding with a synthesis emphasising \r the utility of climate resilient development pathways (Section 4.4.6)."


id: 28460aa8e2d61eaeb6e117a7a718570e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4282
content:
"These conclusions must be nuanced, first, by the fact that our \r assessment does not consider either financial or social aspects that \r can act as limiting factors to the development of adaptation options \r (Sections 4.4.3 and 4.4.5), for instance, hard engineering coastal \r defences (Hurlimann et al., 2014; Jones et al., 2014; Elrick-Barr et al., \r 2017; Hinkel et al., 2018). However, from a general perspective, \r these findings suggest that although ambitious adaptation will \r not necessarily eradicate end-century risk from SLR across all \r low-lying coastal areas around the world, it will help to buy time \r in many locations and therefore contribute to developing a robust \r foundation for adaptation beyond 2100. Second, the future of other \r climate-related drivers of risk (such as ESL, waves and cyclones; \r Sections 4.2.3.4.1 to 4.2.3.4.3, 6.3.1.1 to 6.3.1.3) is not fully and \r systematically included in each risk assessment above, so that much \r [...]"


id: a1e1adc8759e8040d7f434dba9a274a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25710
content:
"impacts or political or military unrest (Black et al., 2013; Islam and Khan, 2018; McLeman, 2018; Mortreux et al., 2018). iii) Relocation, \r also termed resettlement, managed retreat or managed realignment, which is typically initiated, supervised and implemented by \r governments from national to local levels and usually involves small sites and/or communities (Wong et al., 2014; Hino et al., 2017; \r Mortreux et al., 2018). Managed realignment may also be conducted for the purpose of creating new habitat. These three sub-categories \r are not neatly separable- any household's decision to retreat may be 'voluntary' in theory, but in practice, may result from very limited \r choices. Displacement certainly occurs in response to extreme events but some of those retreating may have other options. Relocation \r programs may rely on incentives such as land buyouts that households adopt voluntarily. The need for retreat and other response\r [...]"


id: 3137a31f5c492534dcbef5a4ae917f73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5913
content:
"[...] measures can be reduced by avoiding new development commitments in areas prone to severe SLR hazards (Section 4.4.4.2)."


id: 640927549fd1b609f53d703d58f522e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14887
content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) responses provide a combination of protect and advance benefits based on the sustainable \r management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems (Van Wesenbeeck et al., 2017). Examples include the conservation or \r restoration of coastal ecosystems such as wetlands and reefs. EbA measures protect the coastline by (i) attenuating waves, and, in \r the case of wetlands storm surge flows, by acting as obstacles and providing retention space (Krauss et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2012; \r Vuik et al., 2015; Rupprecht et al., 2017); and (ii) by raising elevation and reducing rates of erosion through trapping and stabilising \r coastal sediments (Shepard et al., 2011), as well as building-up of organic matter and detritus (Shepard et al., 2011; McIvor et al., \r 2012a; McIvor et al., 2012b; Cheong et al., 2013; McIvor et al., 2013; Spalding et al., 2014). EbA is also referred to by various other \r [...]"


id: efd24f09ac5703ff7cdc67b76fc449ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39579
content:
"[...] names, including Natural and Nature-based Features, Nature-based Solutions, Ecological Engineering, Ecosystem-based Disaster \r Risk Reduction or Green Infrastructure (Bridges, 2015; Pontee et al., 2016)."


id: 4d2466d3d43e76eb2f830db05fc985fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10849
content:
"There is high confidence that hard coastal protection will continue \r to be a widespread response to SLR in densely populated and \r urban areas during the 21st century, because this response is \r widely practised (Section  4.4.2.2.2), effective in reducing current \r (Section 4.4.2.2.2) and future flood risk (Section 4.3.3.2) and highly \r cost efficient in urban and densely populated areas (Section 4.4.2.7). \r There is, however, low agreement on the level of hard coastal \r protections to expect, with projections being based on different \r assumptions. A model assuming that coastal societies upgrade hard \r protection following scenario-based cost-benefit analysis finds that \r 22% of the global coastline will be protected under various SSPs and \r 1 m of 21st century global mean SLR (Nicholls et al., 2019). Another \r model assuming that only areas for which benefit-cost ratios are \r above 1 under SLR scenarios up to 2 m, all SSPs and discount rates \r [...]"


id: 34739a8c930492ada557fb2596593235
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6463
content:
"[...] up to 6%, finds that this would lead to protecting 13% of the global \r coastline (Lincke and Hinkel, 2018; Figure 4.14)."


id: 1cb2fc6d4c06bded7c7d8a595c8ba17c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2226
content:
"There is high confidence that well designed and maintained hard and \r sediment-based protection is very effective in reducing risk to the \r impacts of SLR and ESL (Horikawa, 1978; USACE, 2002; CIRIA, 2007). \r This includes situations in which coastal megacities in river deltas have \r experienced, and adapted to, relative SLR of several metres caused by \r land subsidence during the 20th century (Kaneko and Toyota, 2011; \r Esteban et al., 2019; Box 4.1). In principle, there are no technological \r limits to protect the coast during the 21st century even under high-end \r SLR of 2 m (Section 4.3.3.2), but technological challenges can make \r protection very expensive and hence unaffordable in some areas \r (Hinkel et al., 2018). Examples include southeast Florida, because \r protected areas can be flooded by rising groundwater through \r underlying porous limestone (Bloetscher et al., 2011). Gradually rising \r water tables behind defences is also an issue, which can be managed \r [...]"


id: 30c61b49212c2973ea2ba1c7630c3299
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5839
content:
"[...] by increasing pumping and drainage (Aerts, 2018). Maintaining this \r effectiveness over time requires regular monitoring and maintenance, \r accounting for changing conditions such as SLR and widespread \r erosional trends in front of the defences. There will always be residual \r risks, which can be reduced, but never eliminated, by engineering \r protection infrastructure to very high standards, such as so-called \r 'unbreakable dikes' (de Bruijn et al., 2013). "


id: f292ed11a8fa1fb7b900f99dfbc62b05
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40078
content:
"It is difficult to assess at what point in time and for which amount \r of SLR technical limits for coastal protection will be reached. Parts of \r Tokyo have been protected against five metres of relative SLR during \r the 21st century (Kaneko and Toyota, 2011) and it has been argued \r that it is possible to preserve territorial integrity of the Netherlands \r even under 5  m SLR, using current engineering technology (Aerts \r et al., 2008; Olsthoorn et al., 2008). This suggests that under RCP2.6, \r technical limits to adaptation will be rare even under longer-term \r SLR. Protecting against high-end SLR will be increasingly technically \r challenging as we move beyond the 21st century. This is not only due \r to the absolute amount of SLR, but also due to the very high rates of \r annual SLR (e.g., 10-20 mm yr-1 likely range under RCP8.5 in 2100), \r which challenge the planning and implementation of hard protection \r because major protection infrastructure requires decades to plan and \r [...]"


id: 7146ed04cfc4377f52e4682aec4dec05
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17188
content:
"[...] implement (Gilbert et al., 1984; Burcharth et al., 2014). In summary, \r the higher and faster SLR, the more challenging coastal protection \r will be, but quantifying this is difficult. In any case, before technical \r limits are reached, economic and social limits will be reached because \r societies are neither economically able nor socially willing to invest in \r coastal protection (Sections 4.4.2.2 and 4.3.3.2; Hinkel et al., 2018; \r Esteban et al., 2019)."


id: 18ed964f50f4b9c4ecba1633a92cb7ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1601
content:
"There is also conflict related to the distribution of public money \r between communities receiving public support for adaptation and \r non-coastal communities who pay for this support through taxes \r (Elrick-Barr et al., 2015). Generally, access to financial resources \r for adaptation, including from public sources, development and \r climate finance or capital markets, frequently constrain adaptation \r (Ekstrom and Moser, 2014; Hinkel et al., 2018). For example, \r homeowners are often not willing to pay taxes or levies for public \r protection or sediment-base measures even if they directly benefit, \r as found, for example in communities on the US east coast where \r beach nourishment is used to maintain recreational and tourism \r amenities (Mullin et al., 2019). In many parts of the world, coastal \r adaptation governance is further complicated by existing conflicts \r over resources. For example, illegal coastal sand mining is currently a \r [...]"


id: 6c124b58afd69f2291d14d60ad342871
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16317
content:
"[...] major driver of coastal erosion in many parts of the developing world \r (Peduzzi, 2014). Examples of this can be found in Ghana (Addo, 2015) \r and the Comoros (Betzold and Mohamed, 2017)."


id: 8778b9562df6a62d11c26c318964102e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20991
content:
"Drawbacks of hard protection include the alteration of hydrodynamic \r and morphodynamic patterns, which in turn may export flooding and \r erosion problems downdrift (Masselink and Gehrels, 2015; Nicholls \r et al., 2015). For example, protection of existing shoreline in estuaries \r and tidal creeks may increase tidal amplification in the upper parts \r (Lee et al., 2017). Hard protection also hinders or prohibits the \r onshore migration of geomorphic features and ecosystems (called \r coastal squeeze; Pontee, 2013; Gittman et al., 2016), leading to both \r a loss of habitat as well as of the protection function of ecosystems \r (see Sections 4.3.2.4 and 4.4.2.2). Another drawback of raising \r hard structures, also emphasised in AR5, is the risk of lock-in to a \r development pathway in which development intensifies behind \r higher and higher defences, with escalating severe consequences in \r the event of protection failure (Wong et al., 2014; Welch et al., 2017), \r [...]"


id: a4c3e1c30c36bd24581c8ada78b340d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26213
content:
"[...] as experienced in Hurricane Katrina impacted New Orleans (Burby, \r 2006; Freudenburg et al., 2009). This lock-in results from protection \r attracting further economic development in the flood zone within \r defenses, which then leads to further raising defences with SLR, and \r the growing value of exposed assets. "


id: 1dbee25fdd2b2c6ecb4568704724e99b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2418
content:
"At global scales, new economic assessments of responses have \r mostly focused on the direct costs of hard protection and the \r benefits of reducing coastal extreme event flood risks. These studies \r confirm AR5 findings that the benefits of reducing coastal flood \r risk through hard protection exceed the costs of protection, on a \r global average, and for cities and densely populated areas, during \r the 21st century even under high-end SLR (medium evidence, high \r agreement; Hallegatte et al., 2013; Wong et al., 2014; Diaz, 2016; \r Lincke and Hinkel, 2018). For example, Lincke and Hinkel (2018) find \r that, during the 21st century, it is economically efficient to protect \r 13% of the global coastline, which corresponds to 90% of global \r floodplain population, under SLR scenarios from 0.3-2.0 m, five \r SSPs and discount rates up to 6% (Figure  4.14). While the above \r two studies have not considered the effects of hard protection in \r [...]"


id: 78dd9efb36d62b07fc8419acc835dfd4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18454
content:
"[...] reducing the area of coastal wetlands, it is expected that coastal hard \r protection in densely populated areas and conserving wetlands in \r sparsely populated areas can go hand in hand. Protecting less than \r 42% of the global coastline would leave coastal wetlands sufficient \r accommodation space to even grow in areas under rising sea levels "


id: e25669eb52f7716dd45df4d0ffb003e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37108
content:
"et al., 2017). EbA, by definition, can only exist and function where \r the environmental conditions are appropriate for a given ecosystem. \r Mangroves, salt marshes and reefs occur along about 40-50% of the \r world's coastlines (Wessel and Smith, 1996; Burke, 2011; Giri et al., \r 2011; Mcowen et al., 2017). However, there is no clear estimate on \r the global length of coastline covered by ecosystems relevant for \r EbA in the face of SLR in part because of a mismatch between the \r spatial resolutions of different estimates available. Mangroves occur \r on tropical and subtropical coasts, and cover 138,000-152,000 km2\r across about 120 countries (Spalding et al., 2010; Giri et al., 2011). \r At least 150,000 km of coastline in over 100 countries benefit from \r the presence of coral reefs (Burke, 2011) and these are estimated to \r protect over 100 million people from wave-induced flooding globally \r (Ferrario et al., 2014). The extent of other coastal habitats is less well \r [...]"


id: 4a45059823b16908bb6ee96105704bb8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10309
content:
"[...] known: salt marshes are estimated to occur in 99 countries, especially \r in temperature to high latitude locations, with nearly 5,500,000 ha \r mapped across 43 countries (Mcowen et al., 2017)."


id: 8e4448518b11eedf95d505c70d031f7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22220
content:
"While EbA has been able to reduce the impacts of sea level related \r hazards, there is still little agreement on the size of the effect \r (Gedan et al., 2011; Doswald et al., 2012; Lo, 2016; Renaud et al., \r 2016). Dozens of independent field, experimental and numerical \r studies have observed and measured the wave attenuation and \r flood reduction benefits provided by natural habitats, such as marsh \r and mangrove wetlands (Barbier and Enchelmeyer, 2014; Moller \r et al., 2014; Rupprecht et al., 2017), coral reefs (Ferrario et al., \r 2014; Storlazzi et al., 2017), oyster reefs (Scyphers et al., 2011) and \r submerged seagrass beds (Infantes et al., 2012). Local and global \r numerical studies indicate that marshes and mangroves can reduce \r present-day surge-related flood damages by >15% annually, and the \r loss of a metre of living coral reef can double annual wave-related \r flood damages (Narayan et al., 2017; Beck et al., 2018). Artificial reef \r [...]"


id: c4c4b816e103209719cbd9d44d891cc5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31932
content:
"[...] restoration along tens of metres of coastline using Reef Ball(tm) and \r other structures has been shown to reduce wave heights and stabilise \r beach widths (Reguero et al., 2018a; Torres-Freyermuth et al., 2018). "


id: a747a9d330a141c3094a19be9a298e90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26646
content:
"The effectiveness of ecosystem-based measures also exhibits high \r seasonal, annual and longer-term variability. For example, marsh \r and seagrass wetlands typically have lower densities in winter which \r reduces their coastal protection capacity (Moller and Spencer, 2002; \r Paul and Amos, 2011; Schoutens et al., 2019). In the long-term, there \r is limited evidence and low agreement on how changes in sea level, \r sediment inputs, ocean temperature and ocean acidity will influence \r the extent, distribution and health of marsh and mangrove wetlands, \r coral reefs and oyster reefs (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Lovelock et al., \r 2015; Crosby et al., 2016; Albert et al., 2017). EbA measures may have \r differential lead times before they are effective. For example, newly \r planted mangroves provide less wave attenuation until they mature \r (~3-5 years; Mazda et al., 1997). In contrast, a reef restoration project \r that uses submerged concrete structures performs as a breakwater as \r [...]"


id: 7d7ff13febc8b839cf74fcba0bc81d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19250
content:
"Climate risk insurance schemes have been recently developed to \r address sudden, and in rare cases, slow onset hazards at the coast, \r and to increase overall resilience. For coastal risks, insurance is \r mainly applicable for sudden onset hazards, including storm surges \r and coastal flooding, to buffer against the financial impacts of \r loss events. For slow onset hazards, insurance schemes are not the \r first-best tool, whereas resilience building and prevention of loss \r and damage in such instances may be more cost-effective ways \r to address these risks (Warner et al., 2013). In this context, index \r based insurance products are increasingly offered, particularly in \r low-income countries and have also been included in a number \r of countries in their NDCs and in some cases in their National \r Adaptation Plans (NAPs; Kreft et al., 2017). Countries with existing \r climate risk insurance schemes include, for example, Haiti, Maldives, \r [...]"


id: fdc5a1f016019773af5dd62f1c908c1a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42008
content:
"[...] Seychelles and Vietnam. The InsuResilience Global Partnership for \r Climate and Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance Solutions was \r launched at the 2017 UN Climate Conference (COP 23) in Bonn. \r InsuResilience aims to enable more timely response after a disaster \r and helps to better prepare for climate and disaster risk through \r the use of climate and disaster risk finance and insurance solutions. \r So far, climate risk insurance was used mainly in the context of \r agriculture, where it has showed great efficacy in boosting \r investments for increasing productivity (Fernandez and Schafer, \r 2018). However, on the global scale, the uptake of index insurance \r is still low (Yuzva et al., 2018). "


id: abd202c0669cde8997f277e19983a453
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27473
content:
"While there is no literature on projected accommodation, current \r trends suggest further uptake of accommodation approaches in \r coming decades, especially where protection approaches are not \r economically viable. Flood proofing of houses and establishment \r of new building codes to accommodate coastal hazards is also \r expected to become more common in coming decades. Similarly, \r accommodation measures for salinity are under further development, \r such as rice breeding programs to improve salt tolerance (Linh et al., \r 2012; Quan et al., 2018b). However, the achievements to improve \r salinity tolerance in rice are rather modest so far (Hoang et al., 2016) \r although efforts are expected to continue or even intensify. Given \r that index based insurance products have been included in NDCs and \r NAPs in a number of countries (Kreft et al., 2017), uptake is expected \r to grow. Ports can continue elevating hazard-prone facilities and \r [...]"


id: da47eef240ae3bb0636d5624de505196
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35704
content:
"[...] the critical parts of port infrastructure can be protected by flood \r walls. Alternatively, ports can use advance measures to develop port \r facilities seaward (Aerts, 2018)."


id: 5c000cc645fb5fc8730f2253ca15a421
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13445
content:
"Accommodation measures can be very effective for current \r conditions and small amounts of SLR, also buying time to prepare \r for future SLR. Success stories include the case of Bangladesh \r where improved early warnings, the construction of shelters, and \r development of evacuation plans, helped to reduce fatalities as a \r result of flooding and cyclones (Haque et al., 2012). Illiteracy, lack \r of awareness and poor communication are, however, still hampering \r the effectiveness of early warnings (Haque et al., 2012). If well \r designed, and if the premiums reflect individual risks, insurance can \r effectively discourage further investments in risky areas as insurance \r cost provides information on the nature of locality-specific risks and \r can incentivise investment in risk reduction by requiring that certain \r minimum standards are met before granting insurance coverage \r (Kunreuther, 2015). Limits to such accommodation occur much earlier \r [...]"


id: 92eaca66964a61f94d26ed45a69bd028
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23058
content:
"[...] compared to protect, advance and retreat measures. While dikes \r can be raised to 10 m, and retreat can be implemented to the 10 m \r contour or higher, accommodating SLR has practical and economic \r limits, and ultimately retreat or protection will be required."


id: cda5db88bbafd44b2ca825690a8d8164
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33512
content:
"The major co-benefit of accommodation is improved resilience of in \r situ communities without retreat or the use of land and resources for \r the construction of protection measures. Flood proofing, for example, \r helps prevent demolition or relocation of structures and it is often \r an affordable and cost effective approach to reducing flood risk \r (Zhu et al., 2010). Specific accommodation measures have different \r co-benefits such as that stilt houses not only protect from flooding \r but also from wild animals (Biswas et al., 2015). Accommodation - \r depending on the measure implemented  - has the potential to \r maintain landscape connectivity allowing access to the ocean as well \r as landward migration of ecosystems, at least to some degree. It also \r retains flood dynamics and with that the benefits of flooding such as \r sediment re-distribution. Stilt houses leave space for the floodwater \r while wet-flood proofing maintains a low hydrostatic pressure on the \r [...]"


id: 65aece6ba55d39af1f234679ffdcb5a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15153
content:
"SLR (McAdam and Ferris, 2015; Hino et al., 2017; Morrison, 2017). \r For example, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the Louisiana \r Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast recommended \r the relocation of several communities in the next 50 years due to \r expected RSL rise, and relocation of inhabitants from Isle de Jean \r Charles is already taking place (Barbier, 2015; Coastal Protection \r and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, 2017). In Shismaref, an \r Inupiat community in Alaska, increased shoreline erosion triggered \r government-led relocation (Bronen and Chapin, 2013; Maldonado \r et al., 2013). In the Pacific, current coastal risks aggravated by rising sea \r level are driving the government led relocation of the inhabitants of \r Taro, the provincial capital of Choiseul Province in the Solomon Islands \r (Albert et al., 2018). In 2014, the government of Kiribati purchased \r land on Vanua Levu, the second largest island of Fiji, with the purpose \r [...]"


id: 458ce467446113d435100cbb610018f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9457
content:
"[...] of economic development and food security, but many i-Kiribati \r associated the acquisition with future relocation to Fiji (Hermann and \r Kempf, 2017). In southeast Asia, the government of Vietnam assists \r and manages rural populations' relocation from disaster prone areas \r exposed to coastal risks in the Mekong Delta to large industrial \r areas with high labour demand, such as Ho Chi Minh City and Can \r Tho City (Collins et al., 2017). Managed realignment carried out for \r the purposes of habitat creation, improved flood risk management \r and more affordable coastal protection, is increasingly popular in \r Europe, but usually involves small-scale projects and few people if any \r (Esteves, 2013). Most of the managed realignment projects in the UK \r and Germany have been carried out for habitat creation and to reduce \r spending on coastal defences (Hino et al., 2017). "


id: 2eb4977ea2c2d2c3979466f2d0129967
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5495
content:
"There is limited evidence of migration occurring directly as a \r consequence of impacts associated with environmental change \r generally and SLR specifically. Research examining the linkages \r between migration and environmental change has been conducted \r in the Pacific (Connell, 2012; Janif et al., 2016; Perumal, 2018), South \r Asia (Szabo et al., 2016; Call et al., 2017; Stojanov et al., 2017), Latin \r America (Nawrotzki and DeWaard, 2016; Nawrotzki et al., 2017), \r Alaska, in North America (Marino and Lazrus, 2015; Hamilton et al., \r 2016) and Africa (Gray and Wise, 2016). While some limited evidence \r was found on population movement inland associated with shoreline \r encroachment in Louisiana, USA (Hauer et al., 2018), this research \r emphasises that the relationship between climate change impacts \r including SLR and migration is more nuanced than suggested by \r simplified cause-and-effect models (Adger et al., 2015). Migration \r [...]"


id: 5203c118b79ed393970f243e79ca00d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11703
content:
"[...] is driven by a large number of individual, social, economic, political, \r demographic and environmental push and pull factors (Black et al., \r 2011; Koubi et al., 2016), interwoven with mega-trends such as \r urbanisation, land use change and globalisation, and is influenced by \r development and political practices and discourses (Bettini and Gioli, \r 2016; Cross-Chapter Box 7). For example, asset endowed individuals \r and households are more able to migrate out from flood-prone \r areas (Milan and Ruano, 2014; Logan et al., 2016), while the poorest \r households are significantly susceptible to material and human losses \r following an extreme event or disruptive environmental change \r (Call et al., 2017). Individual and social drivers include perceptions \r of environmental change (Koubi et al., 2016), formed by both direct \r experience of change and indirect information from social networks, \r mass media and governmental agencies. Environmental factors \r [...]"


id: 7ca188d193d8a2ee0157a070bcfffa48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19127
content:
"[...] include the longer term impacts of climate variability and change, \r which can erode the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential \r services such as availability of freshwater, soil fertility and energy \r production acting as a threat multiplier for other drivers of migration \r (Hunter et al., 2015; McLeman, 2018)."


id: fd69308e12944883fbac67e4b23c4f18
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41939
content:
"A global dynamic general equilibrium framework (Desmet et al., 2018) \r provides a more comprehensive approach to accounting for economic \r factors including changes to trade, innovation, and agglomeration, \r and political factors, such as policy barriers to mobility, all of \r which influence the migration response to environmental change. \r Agent-based models attempt to simulate decisions by individuals who \r face a variety of socioeconomic and environmental changes (Kniveton \r et al., 2012). However, neither general equilibrium nor agent-based \r frameworks have been applied yet to migration responses to SLR. \r Econometric models, common in climate/migration studies (Millock, \r 2015), likewise have yet to be applied to the SLR context, except for a \r single case study where an econometric model was used to interpret \r the outcome of a discrete choice experiment (Buchanan et al., 2019). \r For example, an interesting distinction between migration responses \r [...]"


id: 2b7c0a176c48135ba3aa91117c8f407a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4904
content:
"[...] to long term temperature and precipitation trends in contrast to \r extreme events like flooding has been noted (Bohra-Mishra et al., \r 2014; Mueller et al., 2014), but similar econometric studies have yet \r to be done comparing responses to gradual land loss versus flooding \r during ESL events."


id: 19ac5efb7ac8adbefe336360bbe80afa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1716
content:
"The other outcomes of retreat responses, beyond the one of \r effectively reducing SLR risks and impacts, are complex and affect \r both origin and destination. Generally, retreat impacts social \r networks, access to services and economic and social opportunities, \r and several well-being indicators (Jones and Clark, 2014; Adams, \r 2016; Herath et al., 2017; Kura et al., 2017; McNamara et al., \r 2018). The socioeconomic benefits of migration to individuals and \r households may include improved access to health and education \r services, as well as labour markets (Wrathall and Suckall, 2016). \r Destination areas may gain economically as populations and \r capital relocate and provide a new source of labour, capital and \r innovation to inland areas (see Section 4.4.2.6.2; de Haas, 2010). \r Income inequality may be reduced, but only through migration to \r areas with growing economies. Remittances can provide flexibility \r in livelihood options, supply capital for investment and spread risk \r [...]"


id: 7dca5cf21bd87b49687d5cb4d9ccd802
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19305
content:
"The cost of managed relocation, including land acquisition, building of \r roads and infrastructure and other subsidies, was found to vary from \r 10,000-270,000 GBP per home in United Kingdom Coastal Change \r Pathfinder projects (Regeneris Consulting, 2011), and between \r 10,000 USD in Fiji and 100,000 USD per person in Alaska and in the Isle \r of Jean Charles in the USA (Hino et al., 2017). For people involved in \r planned relocation in Shaanxi Province, Northwest China, households \r receive subsidies ranging from 1200-5100 USD (Lei et al., 2017). \r The Louisiana's National Disaster Resilience Competition, Phase II \r Application states that the proposed relocation of 40 households in the \r Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana is estimated to cost 48,379,249 USD, \r including the cost for land acquisition, infrastructure and construction \r of new dwellings (State of Louisiana, 2015). Generally, maintenance \r costs do not arise if people are moved completely out of the hazard \r [...]"


id: f493628a11c2e5955c8397521c72f541
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40405
content:
"[...] zone (Suppasri et al., 2015; Hino et al., 2017). In cases in which people \r are only moved so that short-term but not long-term risk is reduced, \r follow up costs for further responses will occur."


id: ed39af584b93a9594916788205b1c52b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39117
content:
"Environmentally driven migration and displacement gained major \r attention over the last decade in the international policy community \r (Goodwin-Gill and McAdam, 2017). Worldwide programmes, such \r as the Nansen Initiative, signed by 110 countries to address the \r serious legal gap around the protection of cross-border migrants \r impacted by natural disasters, have been implemented (Gemenne \r and Brucker, 2015). In 2016, the Platform on Disaster Displacement \r was established to follow up on the work conducted by the Nansen \r Initiative with the objective of implementing the recommendations \r of the Protection Agenda (McAdam and Ferris, 2015). Governments \r are further encouraged by civil society to relocate people at risk and \r displaced populations out of disaster-prone areas to avoid potential \r casualties (Lei et al., 2017; Mortreux et al., 2018). There have been \r discussions among Pacific Island countries and territories and other \r [...]"


id: 2f25f8427cae1ad8a4e68350326a85bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5565
content:
"[...] nations in the Pacific Rim around new policy mechanisms that would \r facilitate adaptive migration in the region in response to natural \r hazards including SLR (Burson and Bedford, 2015). There have been \r cases presented at the Immigration and Protection Tribunal of New \r Zealand testing refugee claims associated with climate change from \r Tuvaluan and i-Kiribati applicants, both citing environmental change \r on their home islands as grounds for remaining in New Zealand. \r One applicant was successful in the quest to remain in New Zealand \r on humanitarian grounds, but not on the grounds of refugee status \r (Farbotko et al., 2016)."


id: ed2e2d5ba3c5166f4e87fbd7ce889e17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39106
content:
"Governance is pivotal to shaping SLR responses. The assessment of \r SLR responses above has shown that each type of response raises \r specific governance challenges associated with the distribution \r of costs, benefits and negative consequences of responses across \r societal actors. Hence, SLR responses require governance efforts if \r social conflicts are to be resolved and mutual opportunities amongst \r all actors realised. Generally, responses involve the interaction of \r diverse public and private actors at different levels of decision making \r with divergent values, interests and goals on coastal activities, \r lifestyles, livelihoods, risks, resilience and sustainability (high \r confidence; Dovers and Hezri, 2010; Foerster et al., 2015; Giddens, \r 2015; Mills et al., 2016; Dolsak and Prakash, 2018; Hinkel et al., \r 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; AR5). This leads to a number of \r overarching governance challenges that arise from the nature of SLR, \r [...]"


id: 59cb99d3029252c47317c21d43565f3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13039
content:
"While there is a substantial literature on coastal governance, little \r attention has been focused explicitly on SLR governance, as was \r also the case in AR5 (Wong et al., 2014). Furthermore, much of the \r adaptation governance literature has focused on putting forward \r normative prescriptions on how governance arrangements ought \r to be (e.g.,  transformative governance; Chaffin et al., 2016), but \r with limited empirical evidence on the actual effectiveness of these \r prescriptions (Klostermann et al., 2018; Runhaar et al., 2018). Hence, \r understanding the social mechanisms leading to the emergence \r of particular governance arrangements, and how effective they \r are in addressing climate change and SLR, is limited (Wong et al., \r 2014; Bisaro and Hinkel, 2016; Oberlack, 2017; Bisaro et al., 2018; \r Roggero et al., 2018a; Roggero et al., 2018b). An important post-AR5 \r development has thus been to move beyond descriptions and \r [...]"


id: d6888456f409d55ab8a69d9b269ea70d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35052
content:
"[...] normative prescriptions about 'good governance' to explore which \r factors help (called enablers) or hinder (called barriers) how social \r choices are made and implemented on complex issues like climate \r change and SLR, as elaborated in the next subsection. "


id: d45913f0952300258d32509c6419ad94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34682
content:
"The is high agreement that outcomes can be improved by upholding \r the principle of procedural justice and respecting the autonomy of \r individuals and their decisions about where and how they live (Warner \r et al., 2013; Schade et al., 2015; McNamara et al., 2018). However, \r there are cases where logistical and political stances constrain the \r application of such approach, such as when the government of Sri \r Lanka prohibited rebuilding along the coastline of the country after \r the 2004 tsunami (Hino et al., 2017). Proactive planning, including \r participation and consultation with those in peril, has the potential \r to improve outcomes (medium confidence; de Sherbinin et al., 2011; \r Gemenne and Blocher, 2017). Governments can assist migrants \r through policy reforms to enable relocation to fast growing economic \r regions in the country. An example of this approach was adopted in \r Vietnam by both the National Target Program to Respond to Climate \r [...]"


id: ca282b2785c77fd139f7471326689ac6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32905
content:
"[...] Change and the National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, \r Response and Mitigation targeted at locations within the Mekong \r Delta exposed to the impacts of SLR (Nguyen et al., 2015; Collins \r et al., 2017). Outcomes of retreat for both community of origin and \r destination can also be improved by building the human capital of \r migrants (skills, health and education), reducing costs of migration \r and remittance transfer, and provision of improved safety nets for \r migrants at their destinations (high agreement) (Gemenne and \r Blocher, 2017)."


id: 5a14468a74674802778812668f9a6d36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13095
content:
"Cross-scale and cross-domain coordination: SLR creates new \r coordination problems across jurisdictional levels and domains, \r because impacts cut across scales, sectors and policy domains and \r responding often exceeds the capacities of local governments and \r communities (medium confidence; Araos et al., 2017; Termeer et al., \r 2017; Pinto et al., 2018; Clar, 2019; Clar and Steurer, 2019; Sections \r 4.3.2 and 4.4.2). Local responses are generally nested within a \r hierarchy of local, regional, national and international governance \r arrangements and cut across sectors (Cuevas, 2018; Chhetri \r et al., 2019; Clar, 2019). Furthermore responding to SLR is only one \r administrative priority amongst many, and the choice of SLR response \r is influenced by multiple co-existing functional responsibilities \r and perspectives (e.g.,  planning, emergency management, asset \r management and community development) that compete for \r [...]"


id: 226b2b9b06eb52968f0c05058b90dafd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3277
content:
"[...] legitimacy, further complicating the coordination challenge (Klein \r et al., 2016; Vij et al., 2017; Jones et al., 2019)."


id: 360457bd38d04b27260411a7edf09aa9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6753
content:
"Equity and social vulnerability: SLR and responses may affect \r communities and society in ways that are not evenly distributed, \r which can compound vulnerability and inequity, and undermine \r societal aspirations, such as achieving SDGs (high confidence; \r Section 4.3.3.2; Eriksen et al., 2015; Foerster et al., 2015; Sovacool \r et al., 2015; Clark et al., 2016; Gorddard et al., 2016; Adger et al., \r 2017; Holland, 2017; Dolsak and Prakash, 2018; Lidstrom, 2018; \r Matin et al., 2018; Paprocki and Huq, 2018; Sovacool, 2018; Warner \r et al., 2018a). Costs and benefits of action and inaction are distributed \r unevenly, with some coastal nations, particularly small island states, \r being confronted with adaptation costs amounting to several percent \r of GDP in the 21st century (Section 4.3.3.2). Land use planning for \r climate adaptation can exacerbate sociospatial inequalities at the \r local level, as illustrated in a study of eight cities, namely Boston \r [...]"


id: 9eae8a20b1d98250ef1d17c09429a35f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25142
content:
"[...] (USA), New Orleans (USA), Medellin (Colombia), Santiago (Chile), \r Metro Manila (Philippines), Jakarta (Indonesia), Surat (India), and \r Dhaka (Bangladesh; Anguelovski et al., 2016). Private responses may \r also exacerbate inequalities as, for example, in Miami, USA, where \r purchase of homes in areas at higher elevation has increased property \r prices displacing poorer communities from these areas (Keenan et al., \r 2018). In Bangladesh, some adaptation practices have enabled land \r capture by elites, public servants, the military and roving gangs, \r and resulted in various forms of marginalisation that compound \r vulnerability and risk (Sovacool, 2018); a reality also faced by many \r other coastal communities around the world (Sovacool et al., 2015)."


id: 3c6fa940212b4fdc222500252758def3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7827
content:
"Social conflict: Ongoing SLR could become a catalyst for possibly \r intractable social conflict by impacting human activities, infrastructure \r and development along low-lying shorelines (high confidence). Social \r conflict refers here to the non-violent struggle between groups, \r organisations and communities over values, interests, resources, \r and influence or power, whereby parties seek to achieve their own \r goals, and may seek to prevent others from realising their goals and \r possibly harm rivals (Coser, 1967; Oberschall, 1978; Pruitt et al., 2003). \r SLR impacts that could contribute to conflict include: disruptions to \r critical infrastructure, cultural ties to the coast, livelihoods, coastal \r economies, public health, well-being, security, identity and the \r sovereignty of some low-lying island nations  (Sections 4.3.2.4, \r 4.3.3.2, 4.3.3.6; Mills et al., 2016; Yusuf et al., 2016; Nursey-Bray, \r 2017; Hinkel et al., 2018). SLR responses inevitably raise difficult \r [...]"


id: 70a07c510453697d7e530f5d29afa731
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17074
content:
"[...] trade-offs between private and public interests, short- and long-term \r concerns, and security and conservation goals, which are difficult to \r reconcile due to divergent problem framing, interests, values and \r ethical positions (Eriksen et al., 2015; Foerster et al., 2015; Mills et al., \r 2016; Termeer et al., 2017; Sovacool, 2018). To some countries, SLR \r presents a security risk due to the scale of potential displacement \r and migration of people (Section 4.4.2.6). Climate change, and rising \r seas in particular, could compound sociopolitical stressors (Sovacool \r et al., 2015), challenge the efficacy of prevailing legal processes \r (Byrne, 2012; Busch, 2018; Setzer and Vanhala, 2019), and spark or \r escalate conflict (Lusthaus, 2010; Nursey-Bray, 2017)."


id: 1ae02b7e717d33d23eeba246e9da2fbf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1925
content:
"Planning can play an important role in crafting SLR responses, \r addressing several of the governance challenges identified above \r (Section 4.4.3). Planning is future focused and can assist communities \r to develop and pursue a shared vision, and understand and address \r SLR concerns in locality-specific ways (Hurlimann and March, 2012; \r Berke and Stevens, 2016). Planning can help articulate and clarify \r roles and responsibilities through statutory planning provisions, \r complemented by non-statutory processes (Vella et al., 2016). It can \r build social and administrative networks that mobilise cross-scale \r SLR responses, and facilitate integration of diverse mitigation and \r adaptation goals alongside other public aspirations and policy \r imperatives (Hurlimann and March, 2012; Vella et al., 2016). Planning \r can also facilitate the establishment of collaborative regional forums \r that cross jurisdictional boundaries and assist local governments \r [...]"


id: 8d87bd87071d69d32f95deb648653b57
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22087
content:
"[...] and other stakeholders to pool resources and coordinate roles \r and responsibilities across multiple governance levels, such as the \r Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, USA (Shi \r et al., 2015; Vella et al., 2016). Regulatory planning can be used by \r governing authorities to steer future infrastructure, housing, industry \r and related development away from areas exposed to SLR (Hurlimann \r and March, 2012; Hurlimann et al., 2014; Smith and Glavovic, 2014; \r Berke and Stevens, 2016). "


id: 749d119bfaff6bfcc600bf6e2489218b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17750
content:
"Conflict resolution refers to formal and informal processes that enable \r parties to create peaceful solutions for their disputes (Bercovitch et al., \r 2008). They range from litigation and adjudication to more collaborative \r processes based on facilitation, mediation and negotiation (Susskind \r et al., 1999; Bercovitch et al., 2008). Such processes can be used in \r the public domain to make difficult social choices. Whilst it may be \r impossible to eliminate controversy and disputes due to SLR, conflict \r resolution can be foundational for achieving effective, fair and just \r outcomes for coastal communities (Susskind et al., 2015; Nursey-Bray, \r 2017). Whereas some responses to social conflict (see definition \r in Section  4.4.3.3) can be destructive (e.g.,  resorting to violence), \r constructive approaches to conflict resolution (e.g., negotiation and \r mediation) can help disputants satisfy their interests and even have \r [...]"


id: a2c5b6f9d987510ec1ca384b859b286f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25857
content:
"[...] transformational adaptation potential (Laws et al., 2014; Nursey-Bray, \r 2017). Laws et al. (2014), for example, use the term 'hot adaptation' to \r describe adaptation efforts that harness the energy and engagement \r that conflict provokes; and create opportunities for public deliberation \r and social learning about complex problems like SLR. Such an approach \r has particular relevance in settings most at risk to SLR. Realising this \r potential is, however, challenging in the face of local politics and the \r differential power and influence of disputants. These realities have \r been accounted for in public conflict resolution scholarship and \r practice for many decades (Forester, 1987; Dukes, 1993; Forester, 2006), \r and lessons learned are beginning to be applied to adaptation (Laws \r et al., 2014; Nursey-Bray, 2017; Sultana and Thompson, 2017) and SLR \r response planning (Susskind et al., 2015). Conflict was turned into \r [...]"


id: 8e02b675fa71b79780195555c94a7975
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22177
content:
"[...] cooperation in some villages in floodplains in Bangladesh, for example, \r by facilitated dialogue and incentivised cooperation between local \r communities and government, with external facilitator assistance, \r leading to improved water security in a climate stressed environment \r (Sultana and Thompson, 2017). At a larger scale, the Mekong River \r Commission, with its water diplomacy framework, provides an \r institutional structure and processes, with technical support, and legal \r and strategic mechanisms, that help to negotiate solutions for complex \r delta problems and, in so doing, help avert widespread destruction of \r livelihoods and conflict (Kittikhoun and Staubli, 2018). "


id: 79b807eba6e8486688b5598fc4810123
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18617
content:
"There has been a proliferation of public engagement approaches \r and practices applied to adaptation in recent decades (Webler \r et al., 2016; Kirshen et al., 2018; Mehring et al., 2018; Nkoana \r et al., 2018; Yusuf et al., 2018a; Uittenbroek et al., 2019). Increasing \r citizen participation in adaptation and other public decision making \r processes shifts the role of government from a chiefly steering \r and regulating role towards more responsive and enabling roles, \r sometimes referred to as co-design, co-production, and co-delivery \r of adaptation responses (Ziervogel et al., 2016a; Mees et al., 2019). \r Engagement strategies grounded in community deliberation can \r help to improve understanding about SLR and response options, \r reducing the polarising effect of alternative political allegiances and \r worldviews (Akerlof et al., 2016; Uittenbroek et al., 2019). Public \r participation has also the potential to successfully include vulnerable \r [...]"


id: 90c2396ce49ee12a5d6e28dd46747a69
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22674
content:
"[...] groups in multi-level adaptation processes (Kirshen et al., 2018), \r promote justice and enable transformative change (Broto et al., \r 2015; Schlosberg et al., 2017). "


id: 9fc475ceabd54e4b12b9d2944ccf6a04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25314
content:
"Decision analysis methods are formal methods that help to identify \r alternatives that perform best or well with regard to given objectives. \r An alternative (also called response option or, as a sequence of \r options over time: adaptation pathway) is a specific combination of \r SLR responses (See Section 4.4.3). Each alternative is characterised \r for each possible future state-of-the world (e.g.,  levels of SLR or \r socioeconomic development) by one or several attributes, which may \r measure any relevant social, ecological, or economic effect associated \r with choosing and implementing the alternative (Kleindorfer \r et al., 1993). Attributes commonly used include cost of adaptation \r alternatives, monetary and non-monetary benefits of the SLR impacts \r avoided, or net present value (NPV), which is the difference between \r discounted monetised benefits over time and discounted costs over \r time. Formal decision analysis is one way to support social choices \r [...]"


id: 217365b5ef14e752c5bf011578d60729
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3093
content:
"[...] that is generally suggested for decision support if decisions are \r complex and involve large investments, as is frequently the case in \r coastal contexts in the face of SLR. "


id: f1587a2a9c0da98b158206ff41da3056
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39845
content:
"In the context of coastal adaptation, uncertainty is only shallow \r if projected SLR does not significantly differ between low end \r (e.g.,  RCP2.6) and high end (e.g., RCP8.5) scenarios (Hinkel et al., \r 2019). The point in time when this is the case (i.e., time of scenario \r divergence) depends on what difference in expected utility matters \r to the particular stakeholders involved in a decision. The time of \r scenario divergence also differs across locations. In locations where \r the internal sea level variability is large as compared to relative SLR, \r it takes longer before the differences in sea levels under low end and \r high end scenarios become apparent. Figure 4.15 illustrates this effect \r for the ESL projections of this report (Sections 4.2.3.2 and 4.2.3.4), \r following the approach of Hinkel et al. (2019). Under the assumption \r that a 10% statistical distance between the distributions of RCP2.6 \r and RCP8.5 is decision relevant, scenario divergence occurs before \r [...]"


id: 2ebb55e5a0c057c473abe0a2cf161fef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5498
content:
"[...] 2050 for approximately two thirds of coastal sites with sufficient \r observational data, but for 7% of locations this occurs later than 2070."


id: d91cb28baa3ee8c24363bd85d8df0855
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35491
content:
"Irrespective of whether expected utility or robustness criteria are \r applied, there is high confidence that an effective way of dealing with \r large uncertainties is adaptive decision making (also called iterative \r decision making, adaptive planning or adaptive management), which \r maintains that decision and decision analysis should be conducted \r within an iterative policy cycle. This approach includes monitoring of \r sea level variables and evaluation of alternatives in this light in order \r to learn from past decisions and collect information to inform future \r decisions (Haasnoot et al., 2013; Barnett et al., 2014; Burch et al., \r 2014; Jones et al., 2014; Wise et al., 2014; Kelly, 2015; Lawrence and \r Haasnoot, 2017). Such a staged approach is especially suitable for \r coastal adaptation due to the long lead and lifetimes of many coastal \r adaptation measures and the deep uncertainties in future sea levels \r [...]"


id: 977d36e505c1e3da0bd404432ab924fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23862
content:
"[...] (Hallegatte, 2009; Kelly, 2015). Prominent representatives of methods \r that entail this idea are Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (Haasnoot \r et al., 2013) and Dynamic Adaptation Planning (Walker et al., \r 2001). An important prerequisite for any adaptive decision-making \r approach is a monitoring system that can detect sea level signals \r sufficiently early to enable the required responses (Hermans et al., \r 2017; Haasnoot et al., 2018; Stephens et al., 2018)."


id: 6a87ebe44512f79a48ffbbca86d3c034
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16028
content:
"Technically more demanding methods such as real-options analysis \r (Dixit et al., 1994), and decision tree analysis (Conrad, 1980), can \r also find pathways that are economically efficient in terms of \r flexibility and timing of adaptation. There is little application of \r these approaches in the SLR literature. For example, Woodward et al. \r (2014) applied real-options analysis to determine flood defences \r around the Thames Estuary, London, England; Buurman and Babovic \r (2016) for climate-proofing drainage networks in Singapore; Dawson \r et al. (2018) for coastal rail infrastructure in southern England; and \r Kim et al. (2018) for assessing flood defences in southern England. \r A requirement for applying real-options analysis and decision tree \r analysis is to quantify today how much will have been learned at \r a given point in time in the future. The few applications of these \r methods to SLR-related decisions in the literature have generally used \r [...]"


id: 1afc9d6c0f61156b1492de306fae6ac9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1945
content:
"[...] ad-hoc assumptions. For example, Woodward et al. (2011) assumed \r either perfect learning (i.e., in 2040, which SLR trajectory is occurring \r will be known) or no learning (i.e., uncertainty ranges and confidence \r in these remains as today). Others have derived learning rates from \r comparing past progress in SLR projections and then applied these to \r the future. An example is given by Dawson et al. (2018) who derive \r learning rates from the 2002 and 2009 SLR projections of the UK \r Climate Impacts Programme and apply these in real-options analysis."


id: 8e02d0be70c3a0843e3ce28c60a0b5ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22178
content:
"A prominent and straightforward method that addresses the objective \r of flexibility is adaptation pathways analysis (Haasnoot et al., 2011; \r Haasnoot et al., 2012), which is one component of Dynamic Adaptive \r Policy Pathways. The method graphically represents alternative \r combinations of measures over time together with information on \r the conditions under which alternatives cease to be effective in \r meeting agreed objectives, as well as possible alternatives that will \r then be available. As time and SLR progress, monitoring may trigger \r a decision to switch to another alternative. Adaptation pathway \r analysis has been widely applied both in the scientific literature as \r well as in practical cases. Applications after AR5 include Indonesia \r (Butler et al., 2014), New York City (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2014), \r Singapore (Buurman and Babovic, 2016) and Australia (Lin and \r Shullman, 2017). In New Zealand, the method has been included in \r [...]"


id: d6162140e0fe35a203aed55e1eee7df9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34983
content:
"[...] national guidance for coastal hazard and climate change decision \r making (Lawrence et al., 2018). There is high confidence that the \r method is useful in interaction with decision makers and other \r stakeholders, helping to identify possible alternative sequences of \r measures over time, avoiding lock-in, and showing decision makers \r that there are several possible pathways leading to the same desired \r future (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2013; Brown et al., \r 2014; Werners et al., 2015)."


id: 518eb96104db0d8ca4f6b73f6c506687
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11630
content:
"Four general gaps can be identified in the literature. First, the \r generation of SLR information is insufficiently coupled to the use of \r this information in decision analysis. This constitutes a limitation, as \r different coastal decision contexts require different decision analysis \r methods, which in turn require different SLR information. Specifically, \r applications of decision analysis methods generally convert existing \r sea level information to fit their method, often misinterpreting \r the information, making arbitrary assumptions or losing essential \r information in the process (Hinkel et al., 2015; Bakker et al., 2017; Van \r der Pol and Hinkel, 2018). Second, with the exception of adaptation \r pathway analysis, methods of robust and flexible decision making \r are under-represented in the literature despite their suitability (Van \r der Pol and Hinkel, 2018). Third, research is necessary to compare \r the various methods, to identity which methods are most suitable in \r [...]"


id: 8a2a426c42150481df6cf2f9e94911b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21483
content:
"[...] which context and to develop consistent categorisations of methods \r (Hallegatte et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2013; Hinkel et al., 2015; \r Watkiss et al., 2015; Dittrich et al., 2016; Suckall et al., 2018). Fourth, \r future research needs to address how to embed decision analysis \r better in real world planning and decision making processes, \r recognising that adaptation to SLR is a multi-stakeholder process \r often characterised by conflicting interests and interdependence \r between stakeholders (Section  4.4.3). Addressing these gaps \r requires closer cooperation between SLR sciences, decision science, \r and planning and governance scholars. An underlying challenge is \r to design and integrate relevant formal decision making approaches \r into the heterogeneous reality of local planning and decision \r making cultures, institutions, processes and practices, often with \r community-specific needs and requirements (see Box 4.4)."


id: e4db4dc71beb04bad3178a4724ab0dc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37546
content:
"Communities of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR), established under the Inuvialuit Final Agreement (Government of Canada, \r 1984), include the delta communities of Aklavik and Inuvik (the regional hub) and the coastal hamlets of Tuktoyaktuk, Paulatuk, Sachs \r Harbour, and Ulukhaktok. The Inuvialuit Regional Corporation (IRC) administers Inuvialuit lands, a portfolio of businesses, and social and \r cultural services, including co-management of food harvest resources. Other social, education, health, and infrastructure services are \r managed by the Government of the Northwest Territories and municipal Councils. Community Corporations and Hunters and Trappers \r Committees handle other aspects of governance and socioeconomic development. Very high ground-ice content renders the coast and\r coastal infrastructure in this region sensitive to rising temperatures and largely precludes conventional hard shore protection. Higher \r [...]"


id: 226657fa3052bf9d307de0a2970ee162
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3274
content:
"[...] temperatures (>3oC rise since 1948), combined with rising sea level and a lengthening open-water season, contribute to accelerating \r coastal erosion, threatening infrastructure, cultural resources, and the long-term viability of Tuktoyaktuk Harbour, while impacting \r winter travel on ice, access to subsistence resources, food security, safety and well-being (Lamoureux et al., 2015). Despite ongoing \r shore recession, there is strong attachment to the most vulnerable sites and a reluctance to relocate. Adaptation challenges include \r technical issues (e.g., the ice-rich substrate, sea ice impacts), high transportation costs (until recent completion of an all-weather road \r to Tuktoyaktuk, heavy or bulky material had to come in by sea or ice road), availability of experienced labour, and, crucially, financial \r resources. Other inhibitors of adaptation include access to knowledge in suitable forms for uptake, gaps in understanding, research \r [...]"


id: 22ff2228c4d8f3c80d69ad4348d81e21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3355
content:
"[...] readiness, and institutional barriers related to multiple levels of decision making (Ford et al., 2016a). The IRC, as the indigenous \r leadership organisation in the ISR, is moving to play a more proactive role in driving adaptation at the regional level (IRC, 2016), \r as indigenous leaders across the country are demanding more control of the northern research agenda for adaptation action (Bell, \r 2016; ITK, 2018). For a number of years, IRC has promoted community-based monitoring, incorporating Inuvialuit knowledge in \r partnership with trusted research collaborators. Recently IRC is exploring partnership with the community-based ice awareness service \r and social enterprise, SmartICE Inc. Despite the inherent adaptability of Inuit culture, concentration in locality bound communities \r dependent on physical infrastructure has increased vulnerability, as changing climate has raised exposure. Various government and \r [...]"


id: 922b6d7584b246d9b37a9342adb6ada0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22934
content:
"[...] academic initiatives and tools over many years to promote resilience and adaptation strategies have had limited impact. Current\r engagement supporting locally driven knowledge acquisition and management capacity, combined with IRC institutional leadership \r with government support, are expected to enable a more effective co-designed and co-delivered adaptation agenda."


id: 44f1d690faa7fad1c3db4138e75e7aa7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9358
content:
"Clifton to Tangoio Coastal Hazards Strategy 2120 Hawkes Bay, New Zealand: \r A community-based and science-informed decision making process\r New Zealand is applying tools for decision making under deep uncertainty (Lawrence and Haasnoot, 2017; Lawrence et al., 2019)  \r to address the changing risk and uncertainties related to SLR impacts on coastal settlements. An opportunity arose in 2017 for \r the Resilience to Nature's Challenges National Science Challenge, \"The Living Edge\" research project (https://resiliencechallenge. \r nz/edge), to co-develop a Coastal Hazards Strategy for the Clifton to Tangoio coast in Hawkes Bay, New Zealand. The Strategy, \r a joint council/ community/ iwi Maori initiative (Kench et al., 2018), planned to use Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) within \r their decision framework - a static tool in time and space, unsuited for decision making where changing risk and uncertainties exist \r [...]"


id: 30871d7f3d2f9affba1c81026f23ee06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5793
content:
"[...] over long timeframes. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2013) approach and a modified Real Options Analysis\r were proposed by the 'Edge Team' and integrated with MCDA (Lawrence et al., 2019) in a process comprising a Technical Advisory \r Group of councils and two community panels of directly affected communities, infrastructure agencies, business, conservation interests, \r and iwi Maori. Many adaptation options and pathways were assessed for their ability to reduce risk exposure and maintain flexibility \r for switching pathways over a 100-year timeframe, which is the planning timeframe mandated by the New Zealand Coastal Policy \r Statement (Minister of Conservation, 2010) with the force of law under the Resource Management Act, 1991. The recently revised \r New Zealand national coastal hazards and climate change guidance for local government (Bell et al., 2017a) provided context. This \r [...]"


id: 26a308c6088e6e4cbbdab36a0f99d21d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3957
content:
"[...] novel assessment, engagement and planning approach to the formulation of a Coastal Hazards Strategy was undertaken through a \r non-statutory planning process. The agreed options and pathways have yet to be implemented through statutory processes that will \r test the risk tolerance of the wider community. This example illustrates how tailor-made assessment that addresses SLR uncertainty \r and change by keeping options open and reducing path-dependency, and engagement and planning processes can be initiated with \r leadership across councils, sectors and stakeholders, before being implemented, thus reducing contestation. Lessons learned include \r the central role of: leadership, governance and iwi  Maori; Local Authority collaboration; taking time to build trust; independent \r knowledge brokers for credibility; nuanced project leadership and facilitation, enabling a community-based process. The preferred \r [...]"


id: 42e9f365228b2fe919afd39ab1ee833
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8964
content:
"[...] intervention options and pathways have been agreed for implementation. The remaining challenges are to cost the range of actions, \r decide funding formulae, develop physical and socioeconomic signals and triggers for monitoring changing risk, embed the strategy \r in statutory plans and practices, and socialise the strategy with the wider public in the context of competing priorities."


id: 3a0a5f2c87c3378ae0f3b8f010c53f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7426
content:
"locality-specific but cross-cutting nature of SLR impacts, improving \r cross-scale and cross-domain coordination of SLR responses may \r be beneficial. Third, prioritising social vulnerability and equity in SLR \r responses may be essential because SLR impacts and risks are spread \r unevenly across society, and within and between coastal communities. \r Fourth, safe community arenas for working together constructively can \r help to resolve social conflict arising from SLR. Fifth, a sharp increase \r may be needed in governance capabilities to tackle the complex \r problems caused by SLR. There is, however, no one-size-fits-all solution \r to SLR, and responses need to be tailored to the environmental, social, \r economic, political, technological, and cultural context in which they \r are to be implemented. Enablers that work in one context might not \r be effective in another case. As sea level rises, more experience in \r addressing SLR governance challenges will be gained, which can in \r [...]"


id: db2917f4b66ef2577ca5cf744fd3b0eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35833
content:
"[...] turn be evaluated in order to obtain a better contextual understanding \r of enabling conditions and effective SLR governance. "


id: 3b33e4aaa1fa12962de743deab2e2f1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7602
content:
"In this context, AR5 put forward the vision of Climate Resilient \r Development Pathways, which is \"a continuing process for \r managing changes in the climate and other driving forces affecting \r development, combining flexibility, innovativeness, and participative \r problem solving with effectiveness in mitigating and adapting to \r climate change\" (Denton et al., 2014: 1106). Charting Climate \r Resilient Development Pathways in the face of rising sea level \r depends on how well mitigation, adaption and other sustainable \r development efforts are combined, and the governance challenges \r introduced by SLR are resolved. There are no panaceas for solving \r these complex issues. However, the wise application of the planning, \r public participation, conflict resolution, and decision analysis \r methods assessed above can help coastal communities, cities and \r settlements develop locally relevant, enabling and adaptive SLR \r [...]"


id: a603ad095d2b9ed382eee3d205c8d66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26432
content:
"[...] responses. Difficult social choices will nonetheless need to be made \r as sea levels continue to rise. Given the SLR projections outlined here, \r it is concluded that global resilience and sustainability prospects \r depend, to a large extent, on how effectively coastal communities \r develop and implement ambitious, forward-looking adaptation plans \r in synchrony with drastic mitigation of GHG emissions."


id: 120463946e01d70cb2948b0eac3a2de3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 359
content:
"Our assessment shows that failure to mitigate GHG emissions or to \r adapt to SLR will cause major disruptions to many low-lying coastal \r communities and jeopardise achievement of all UN SDGs and other \r societal aspirations. Immediate and ambitious GHG emissions \r reduction is necessary (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) to contain the \r rate and magnitude of SLR, and consequently adaptation prospects. \r Under unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5), coastal societies, especially \r poorer, rural and small islands societies, will struggle to maintain \r their livelihoods and settlements during the 21st century (Sections \r 4.3.4; 4.4.2). Without mitigation, sea levels will continue to rise for \r centuries, reaching 2.3-5.4 m by 2300 (likely range) and much more \r beyond (Section  4.2.3.5), making adaptation extremely challenging, \r if not impossible, for all low-lying coasts, including more intensively \r developed urbanised coasts. But even with ambitious mitigation \r [...]"


id: 5d5269424aa1c3851485df16d763bda3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13704
content:
"[...] (RCP2.6), sea levels will continue to rise, reaching 0.6-1.1 m by 2300 \r (likely range; Figure  4.2 Panel B). Hence, adaptation will continue \r to be imperative irrespective of the uncertainties about future GHG \r emissions and key physical processes such as those determining the \r Antarctic contribution to SLR. Our assessment also shows that all types \r of responses, from hard protection to EbA, advance and retreat, have \r important and synergistic roles to play in an integrated and sequenced \r response to SLR. The merits of a particular type of response, at a \r particular point in time, critically depends on the biophysical, cultural, \r economic, technical, institutional and political context."


id: 8634f523087ddb89cba6e5d8e11a3984
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20762
content:
"SLR, as well as the context for adaptation, will vary regionally and locally, thus action to reduce risks related \r to SLR takes different forms depending on the local circumstances. 'Hard protection', like dikes and seawalls, \r can effectively reduce risk under two or more metres of SLR but it is inevitable that limits will be reached. Such \r protection produces benefits that exceed its costs in low-lying coastal areas that are densely populated, as is the \r case for many coastal cities and some small islands, but in general, poorer regions will not be able to afford hard \r protection. Maintaining healthy coastal ecosystems, like mangroves, seagrass beds or coral reefs, can provide 'soft \r protection' and other benefits. SLR can also be 'accommodated' by raising buildings on the shoreline, for example. \r Land can be reclaimed from the sea by building outwards and upwards. In coastal locations where the risk is very \r [...]"


id: d0a3abaf0c590e41cf2376eea85d2083
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34059
content:
"[...] high and cannot be effectively reduced, 'retreat' from the shoreline is the only way to eliminate such risk. Avoiding \r new development commitments in areas exposed to coastal hazards and SLR also avoids additional risk."


id: ce0f40597683991ecf2f7d9c02547a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33583
content:
"Sevil Acar (Turkey), Juan Jose Alava (Ecuador/Canada), Eddie Allison (United Kingdom), \r Brian Arbic (USA), Tamatoa Bambridge (French Polynesia), Inka Bartsch (Germany), Laurent Bopp \r (France), Philip W. Boyd (Australia/ United Kingdom), Thomas Browning (Germany/United \r Kingdom), Jorn Bruggeman (Netherlands), Momme Butenschon (Germany), Francisco P. Chavez \r (USA), Lijing  Cheng (China), Mine Cinar (USA), Daniel Costa (USA), Omar  Defeo (Uruguay), \r Salpie  Djoundourian (Lebanon), Catia Domingues (Australia), Tyler  Eddy (Canada), \r Sonja Endres (Germany), Alan Fox (UK), Christopher Free (USA), Thomas Frolicher (Switzerland), \r Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Gemma Gerber (South Africa), Charles Greene (USA), Nicolas Gruber \r (Switzerland), Gustaav Hallegraef (Australia), Matthew Harrison (USA), Sebastian Hennige (UK), \r Mark Hindell (Australia), Andrew Hogg (Australia), Taka Ito (USA), Tiff-Annie Kenny (Canada), \r [...]"


id: 2f35aa2fb55283ecd962093e1bb3d155
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5573
content:
"[...] Kristy Kroeker (USA), Lester Kwiatkowski (France/UK), Vicky  W.  Y.  Lam (China/Canada), \r Charlotte Laufkotter (Switzerland/German), Philippe LeBillon (Canada), Nadine Le Bris (France), \r Heike Lotze (Canada), Jennifer  MacKinnon (USA), Annick  de Marffy-Mantuano (Monaco), \r Patrick Martel (South Africa), Nadine Marshall (Australia), Kathleen  McInnes (Australia), \r Jorge Garcia Molinos (Japan/Spain), Serena Moseman-Valtierra (USA), Andries Motau (South \r Africa), Sandor Mulsow (Brazil), Kana Mutombo (South Africa), Andreas Oschlies (Germany), \r Muhammed Oyinlola (Nigeria), Elvira S.  Poloczanska (Australia), Nicolas Pascal (France), \r Maxime Philip (France), Sarah Purkey (USA), Saurabh Rathore (India), Xavier Rebelo (South Africa), \r Gabriel Reygondeau (France), Jake Rice (Canada), Anthony Richardson (Australia), Ulf Riebesell \r (Germany), Christopher  Roach (France/Australia), Joacim Rocklov (Sweden), Murray  Roberts \r [...]"


id: 27566cbf89fb4491bb9a35a9bac1c3e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4096
content:
"[...] (United Kingdom), Alain  Safa (France), Sunke  Schmidtko (Germany), Gerald Singh (Canada), \r Bernadette  Sloyan (Australia), Karinna  von  Schuckmann (France), Manal  Shehabi (England), \r Matthew Smith (USA), Amy  Shurety (South Africa), Fernando Tuya (Spain), Cristian  Vargas \r (Chile), Colette Wabnitz (France), Caitlin Whalen (USA)"


id: 5936e11540464fced54364f8eb4795cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12939
content:
"Coastal ecosystems are observed to be under stress from \r ocean warming and SLR that are exacerbated by non-climatic \r pressures from human activities on ocean and land (high \r confidence). Global wetland area has declined by nearly 50% \r relative to pre-industrial level as a result of warming, SLR, extreme \r climate events and other human impacts (medium confidence). \r Warming related mangrove encroachment into subtropical salt \r marshes has been observed in the past 50 years (high confidence). \r Distributions of seagrass meadows and kelp forests are contracting \r at low-latitudes that is attributable to warming (high confidence), \r and in some areas a loss of 36-43% following heat waves (medium \r confidence). Inundation, coastline erosion and salinisation are \r causing inland shifts in plant species distributions, which has been \r accelerating in the last decades (medium confidence). Warming has \r increased the frequency of large-scale coral bleaching events, causing \r [...]"


id: 3b8c94dcc77eb8a312bdfd17769ea18b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7658
content:
"[...] worldwide reef degradation since 1997-1998 with cases of shifts to \r algal-dominated reefs (high confidence). Sessile calcified organisms \r (e.g.,  barnacles and mussels) in intertidal rocky shores are highly \r sensitive to extreme temperature events and acidification (high "


id: 13c64d3e2461f5d92dfab350f8d18941
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 690
content:
"Climate models project that net primary productivity will very \r likely decline by 4-11% for RCP8.5 by 2081-2100, relative to \r 2006-2015. The decline is due to the combined effects of warming, \r stratification, light, nutrients and predation and will show regional \r variations between low and high latitudes (low confidence). The \r tropical ocean NPP will very likely decline by 7-16% for RCP8.5, with \r medium confidence as there are improved constraints from historical \r variability in this region. Globally, the sinking flux of organic matter \r from the upper ocean into the ocean interior is very likely to decrease \r by 9-16% for RCP8.5 in response to increased stratification and \r reduced nutrient supply, especially in tropical regions (medium \r confidence), which will reduce organic carbon supply to deep sea \r ecosystems (high confidence). The reduction in food supply to the \r deep sea is projected to lead to a 5-6% reduction in biomass of \r [...]"


id: 457b1bfdeff598e332bc06c420c914a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9441
content:
"[...] benthic biota over more than 97% of the abyssal seafloor by 2100 \r (medium confidence). {5.2.2.6, 5.2.4.2}"


id: fa1efeb0a1cbd33cac181b72e8b48af9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41376
content:
"New ocean states for a broad suite of climate indices will \r progressively emerge over a substantial fractions of the \r ocean in the coming century (relative to past internal ocean \r variability), with Earth System Models (ESMs) showing an \r ordered emergence of first pH, followed by sea surface \r temperature (SST), interior oxygen, upper ocean nutrient levels \r and finally net primary production (NPP). The anthropogenic pH \r signal has very likely emerged for three quarters of the ocean prior to \r 1950, with little difference between scenarios. Oxygen changes will \r very likely emerge over 59-80% of the ocean area by 2031-2050 \r and rises to 79-91% by 2081-2100 (RCP8.5). The projected time \r of emergence for five primary drivers of marine ecosystem change \r (surface warming and acidification, oxygen loss, nitrate content and \r net primary production change) are all prior to 2100 for over 60% \r of the ocean area under RCP8.5 and over 30% under RCP2.6 (very \r [...]"


id: 1b75736cc015d31733f5f47e78829b10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2009
content:
"depending on emissions scenario with impacts on their contributions \r to carbon sequestration and coastal protection (high confidence). \r Kelp forests at low-latitudes and temperate seagrass meadows will \r continue to retreat as a result of intensified extreme temperatures, \r and their low dispersal ability will elevate the risk of local extinction \r under RCP8.5 (high confidence). Intertidal rocky shores will continue \r to be affected by ocean acidification, warming, and extreme heat \r exposure during low tide emersion, causing reduction of calcareous \r species and loss of ecosystem biodiversity and complexity shifting \r towards algae dominated habitats (high confidence). Salinisation and \r expansion of hypoxic conditions will intensify in eutrophic estuaries, \r especially in mid and high latitudes with microtidal regimes (high \r confidence). Sandy beach ecosystems will increasingly be at risk of \r eroding, reducing the habitable area for dependent organisms (high \r [...]"


id: 3330b23edf954ec5d11923343c084ab2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6263
content:
"Structure and functions of all types of coastal ecosystems \r will continue to be at moderate to high risk under the \r RCP2.6 scenario (medium confidence) and will face high to \r very high risk under the RCP8.5 scenario (high confidence) \r by 2100. Seagrass meadows (high confidence) and kelp forests \r (high confidence) will face moderate to high risk at temperature \r above 1.5oC global sea surface warming. Coral reefs will face very \r high risk at temperatures 1.5oC of global sea surface warming \r (very high confidence). Intertidal rocky shores are also expected \r to be at very high risk (transition above 3oC) under the RCP8.5 \r scenario (medium confidence). These ecosystems have low to \r moderate adaptive capacity, as they are highly sensitive to ocean \r temperatures and acidification. The ecosystems with moderate to \r high risk (transition above 1.8oC) under future emissions scenarios \r are mangrove forests, sandy beaches, estuaries and salt marshes \r [...]"


id: 8e2ed19071d11f7991ff92cfa0679493
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22208
content:
"[...] (medium confidence). Estuaries and sandy beaches are subject \r to highly dynamic hydrological and geomorphological processes, \r giving them more natural adaptive capacity to climate hazards. In \r these systems, sediment relocation, soil accretion and landward \r expansion of vegetation may initially mitigate against flooding and \r habitat loss, but salt marshes in particular will be at very high risk \r in the context of SLR and extreme climate-driven erosion under \r RCP8.5. {5.3, Figure 5.16}"


id: c0a585258a2da47a899ecbe4b4ea1e79
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31194
content:
"Anthropogenic changes in EBUS will emerge primarily in the \r second half of the 21st century (medium confidence). EBUS will \r be impacted by climate change in different ways, with strong regional \r variability with consequences for fisheries, recreation and climate \r regulation (medium confidence). The Pacific EBUS are projected \r to have calcium carbonate undersaturation in surface waters \r within a few decades under RCP8.5 (high confidence); combined \r with warming and decreasing oxygen levels, this will increase the \r impacts on shellfish larvae, benthic invertebrates and demersal fishes \r (high confidence) and related fisheries and aquaculture (medium \r confidence). The inherent natural variability of EBUS, together with \r uncertainties in present and future trends in the intensity and \r seasonality of upwelling, coastal warming and stratification, primary \r production and biogeochemistry of source waters poses large \r [...]"


id: d300a8c221be487165e6675f0c65536d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34467
content:
"[...] challenges in projecting the response of EBUS to climate change and \r to the adaptation of governance of biodiversity conservation and \r living marine resources in EBUS (high confidence). {Box 5.3}"


id: 968adb22bf9a5061805f9406c2369d74
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23687
content:
"The potential climatic benefits of blue carbon ecosystems \r can only be a very modest addition to, and not a replacement \r for, the very rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.\r The maximum global mitigation benefits of cost-effective coastal \r wetland restoration is unlikely to be more than 2% of current \r total emissions from all sources. Nevertheless, the protection \r and enhancement of coastal blue carbon can be an important \r contribution to both mitigation and adaptation at the national scale. \r The feasibility of climate mitigation by open ocean fertilisation of \r productivity is limited to negligible, due to the likely decadal-scale \r return to the atmosphere of nearly all the extra carbon removed, \r associated difficulties in carbon accounting, risks of unintended \r side effects and low acceptability. Other human interventions to \r enhance marine carbon uptake, for example, ocean alkalinisation \r (enhanced weathering), would also have governance challenges, \r [...]"


id: 6fe0794c6827794aaca80203466a0ed0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16941
content:
"[...] with the increased risk of undesirable ecological consequences (high \r confidence). {5.5.1.2}"


id: 37695712e3e46c598d8c2cdd3990dd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6963
content:
"The impacts on ocean ecosystems and human societies are primarily \r driven by regional trends and by the local manifestation of the global\u0002scale changes. At these smaller scales, the temperature, acidification, \r salinity, nutrient and oxygen concentrations in the ocean are also \r expected to exhibit basin and local-scale changes. However, the ocean \r also has significant natural variability at basin and local-scales with \r time scales from minutes to decades and longer (Rhein et al. 2013), \r which can mask the underlying observed and projected trends (see \r Box 5.1). The impact of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems is one \r of the main subjects of this chapter (Section 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.3), including \r new evidence and understanding since the last assessment report \r (e.g., Gunderson et al. 2016). The most severe impacts of a changing \r climate will typically be experienced when conditions are driven \r outside the range of previous experience at rates that are faster than \r [...]"


id: 6620521fb36369ddb97c4b8b34ddb0cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15229
content:
"Historically, scientific research expeditions starting in the 19th century \r have provided occasional sections measuring deep ocean properties \r (Roemmich et  al. 2012). Greater spatial and temporal coverage of \r temperatures down to about 700 m was obtained using expendable \r bathythermographs along commercial shipping tracks starting in the \r 1970s (Abraham et  al. 2013). Since the early 2000s, thousands of \r autonomous profiling floats (Argo floats) have provided high-quality \r temperature and salinity profiles of the upper 2000 m in ice-free \r regions of the ocean (Abraham et al. 2013; Riser et al. 2016). Further \r advances in autonomous floats have been developed that now allow \r these floats to operate in seasonally ice covered oceans (Wong and \r Riser, 2011; Wong and Riser, 2013), and more recently to profile the \r entire depth of the water column down to 4000 or 6000 m (Johnson \r et al. 2015; Zilberman, 2017) and to include biogeochemical properties \r [...]"


id: 65f1e48e5e85719e8260e339621e9269
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15196
content:
"[...] (Johnson et  al. 2017). Autonomous floats have revolutionised \r our sampling and accuracy of the global ocean temperature and \r salinity records and increased certainty and confidence in global \r estimates of the earth heat (temperature) budget, particularly since \r 2004 (Von  Schuckmann et  al. 2014; Roemmich et  al. 2015; Riser \r et al. 2016), as demonstrated by the convergence of observational \r estimates of the changes in the heat budget of the upper 2000 m \r (Figure 5.1). New findings using data collected from such observing \r platforms mark significant progress since AR5."


id: 50f4354d1aad6249df48979f2d49c2ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11525
content:
"Since AR5, there have been further improvements in our ability to \r understand and correct instrumental errors and new estimates also \r attempt to minimise biases in estimating temperature changes \r arising from traditional data-void filling strategies (Abraham et al. \r 2013; Durack, 2015; Cheng and Chen, 2017; Cheng et al. 2017). New \r estimates from ocean observations of ocean heat uptake in the top \r 2000 m between 1993 and 2017 very likely range from 9.2 +- 2.3 ZJ yr-1\r to 12.1 +- 3.1 ZJ yr-1 (Johnson et al. 2018)4\r . Three recent independent \r estimates do a better job of accounting for instrumental biases and \r the sparseness of historical ocean temperature measurements than \r the older studies assessed in AR5, and provide larger and more \r consistent estimates of heat uptake rates for the 0-2000 m layer of \r 5.8 +- 1.0 ZJ yr-1 (Cheng and Chen, 2017; Cheng et al. 2017; Ishii et al. \r 2017), 6.0 +- 0.8 ZJ yr-1 (updated from Domingues et al. (2008)) and \r [...]"


id: 3c8a265c9b41f030a3b0f821e67d2eaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7841
content:
"[...] 6.3 +- 1.8 ZJ yr-1 (Cheng and Chen, 2017; Cheng et al. 2017; Ishii et al. \r 2017) for the 1971-2010 period assessed by AR5."


id: 78cf08ca0f5fa67a297238076ac5331
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18442
content:
"To understand the recent and future climate, we use ensembles of \r coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-ecosystem models (ESMs) \r with the full-time history of atmospheric forcing (greenhouse gases, \r aerosols, solar radiation and volcanic eruptions) for the historical \r period and projections of the concentrations or emissions of these \r forcings to 2100. For these projections the RCPs of atmospheric \r emissions scenarios are used as specified by the Coupled Model \r Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) (see Section 1.8.2.3, \r Cross-Chapter Box 1, and also IPCC AR5)3. This chapter focuses on the \r low and high emissions scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. \r When these scenarios are used to drive ESMs, it is possible to simulate \r the recent and future patterns of changes in the ocean temperature, \r salinity and circulation (and other oceanic properties such as ocean \r oxygen concentration and acidification, Section 5.2.2.3 and 5.2.2.4). \r [...]"


id: c1ed9f870f41e081c6d04b301ff66cdd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31419
content:
"The near surface salinity of the ocean is both observed and projected \r to evolve in ways that reflect the increased intensity of the Earth's \r hydrologic cycle (Durack, 2015) and the increasing near-surface ocean \r stratification (Zika et al. 2018). As described in WGI AR5, the ocean \r surface in areas that currently have net evaporation are expected to \r become saltier, while areas with net precipitation are expected to get \r fresher (Rhein et  al. 2013), as the patterns of precipitation and \r evaporation are generally expected to be amplified (Held and Soden, \r 2006). At longer time-scales of decades, the larger scale changes in \r the ocean circulation and basin integrated freshwater imbalances \r emerge in the near-surface salinity changes, as shown in Figure 5.3b, \r with an increasingly salty tropical and subtropical Atlantic and \r Mediterranean contrasting with a freshening Pacific and polar Arctic \r emerging as robust signals across the suite of ESMs (Collins et al. \r [...]"


id: ed2c0d12037e695586c487440b16cb73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39103
content:
"[...] 2013). The freshening of the high latitudes in the north Atlantic and \r Arctic basin is consistent with the widely expected weakening of the \r AMOC (also discussed in Section 6.7), hydrological cycle changes and \r a decline in the volume of sea ice (discussed in Section 3.2.2)."


id: 31ce780b9a451b93ed3a41467eac79e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6010
content:
"The ocean will continue to take up heat in the coming decades for \r all plausible scenarios. As depicted in Figure 5.1, the ensemble of \r CMIP5 ESMs used by Cheng et al. (2019) project that under RCP2.6, \r the top 2000 m of the ocean will take up 935 ZJ of heat between 2015 \r and 2100 (with a very likely range of 650-1340 ZJ based on the 5th \r and 95th percentiles of the 25 ESMs used here that have available \r data from the historical, scenario and control runs for RCP2.6). Under \r RCP8.5 this ensemble projects heat uptake of 2180 ZJ (with a very \r likely range of 1710-2790 ZJ, based on 35 ESMs) between 2015 and \r 2100. By 2100 the ocean is very likely to warm by 2 to 4 times as \r much for low emissions (RCP2.6) and 5 to 7 times as much for the high \r emissions scenario (RCP8.5) compared with the observed changes \r since 1970. With the RCP8.5 scenario, the ocean is very likely to take up \r about twice as much heat as RCP2.6 (Figure. 5.1). Even under RCP2.6 \r [...]"


id: a482fea671b3d36925716b4e702fc57e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26157
content:
"[...] the ocean will continue to warm for several centuries to come (Collins \r et al. 2013). It is virtually certain that the ocean will continue to take up \r heat throughout the 21st century, and the rate of uptake will depend \r upon on the emissions scenario we collectively choose to follow."


id: ebccd0bb9973345840f94d9c3a5a5224
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38853
content:
"Projected salinity changes in the subsurface ocean reflect changes \r in the rates of formation of water masses or their newly formed \r properties (Purich et  al. 2018). Thus, projected freshening of the \r Southern Ocean surface leads to a freshening of the Antarctic \r Intermediate Water that is subducted there, flowing northward from \r the Southern Ocean as a relatively fresh water-mass at depths of \r 500-1500 m (Figure 5.3b). Increased surface salinity in the Atlantic \r subtropical gyres are pumped into the interior by the winds, leading \r to an increased salinity of the interior subtropical gyres, along with \r contributions from increasingly salty Mediterranean water (Jorda \r et  al. 2017). Conversely, freshwater capping of the northwestern \r north Atlantic is projected to inhibit deep convection in the Labrador \r Sea and the consequent production of Labrador Sea Water in some \r models (Collins et al. 2013), and contributes to the increased salinity \r [...]"


id: f2ae45531d7de3169fdb1f23d5f109ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40098
content:
"The ensemble average of the CMIP5 ESMs projects widespread ocean \r warming over the coming century, concentrated in the upper ocean \r (Figures 5.2c and 5.3) (Kuhlbrodt and Gregory, 2012). The anthropogenic \r heat will penetrate into the ocean following well-established circulation \r pathways (Jones et al. 2016a). The greatest vertically integrated heat \r uptake occurs where there is already the formation of interior waters, \r such as Antarctic Intermediate Water along the Antarctic Circumpolar \r Current (Frolicher et al. 2015) or NADW precursors in the Nordic Seas \r (Figure 5.2c), but all water-masses5\r  that are subducted over decades \r are expected to experience significant warming (see Figure 5.3). The \r warming in the subtropical gyres penetrates deeper into the ocean \r than other gyres (roughly 15oN-45oN and 15oS-45oS in Figure 5.3), \r following the wind-driven bowing down of the density surfaces (the \r solid lines in Figure 5.3) in these gyres (Terada and Minobe, 2018). \r [...]"


id: 45e9dbca71dd72795f8aa4d4f90ec0d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9520
content:
"[...] The greater warming at 700-2000 m in the Atlantic than the Pacific \r or Indian Oceans (Figure 5.3) reflects the strong southward transport \r of recently formed NADW at these depths by the AMOC. Two areas \r that commonly exhibit substantially reduced near-surface warming \r over the course of the 21st century are the northern north Atlantic, \r where a slowing AMOC (see Section 6.7.1.1) reduces the northward \r heat transport and brings the surface temperatures closer to what is \r found in other ocean basins at these latitudes (Collins et  al. 2013), \r and the southern side of the Southern Ocean, where water upwells "


id: 1079adf36cdab13a5b5da4ffbf83d8a2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 82
content:
"Detailed regional patterns of trends in temperature and heat content \r at depths of 0-2000 m during the early 21st century are consistent \r in various analysis, owing to the improved observing network \r (Roemmich et al. 2015; Desbruyeres et al. 2016a) (Figure 5.2d). At \r depths of 700-2000 m, observations in all of the ocean basins show \r broadly warming trends in the well-observed Argo era (2006  to \r present), with particularly significant warming patterns in the \r Southern Hemisphere extratropics around 40oS and the subpolar \r north Atlantic (Figure  5.3a). These observed changes support \r the notion that deep ocean heat content has been continuously \r increasing. As a result, regional climate change signatures emerge \r from confounding natural variability sooner in the 700-2000 m \r depth range than in upper 700 m of the ocean, where interannual \r modes of variability have a larger influence on the circulation (for \r a more complete discussion see Johnson et  al. (2018)). Despite \r [...]"


id: 2a2042590171ec02c7d2473292134b72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4623
content:
"[...] regional patches of cooling water in the upper 700 m (Figure 5.2d), \r every one of the world's ocean basins volume averaged over \r depths of 0-2000 m has experienced significant warming over \r the last decade (Figure  5.3, and also Desbruyeres et  al. (2016a)). \r The greatest warming of the top 2000 m has been in the Southern \r Ocean (Roemmich et  al. 2015; Trenberth et  al. 2016), the tropical \r and subtropical Pacific Ocean (Roemmich  et  al. 2015), and the \r tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean (Cheng and Chen, 2017). The \r Southern Hemisphere extratropical oceans accounted for 67-98% of \r the total ocean heat increase in the uppermost 2000 m for the period \r of 2006-2013 (Roemmich et al. 2015). Shi et al. (2018) suggest that \r the dominant ocean heat uptake by the Southern Hemisphere in the \r early 21st century is expected to become more balanced between \r the hemispheres as the asymmetric cooling by aerosols decreases."


id: b935a51ab5c7fa43efed3edbf1f94e6f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29789
content:
"There are well documented changes in observed ocean temperatures \r and salinities (Abraham et  al. 2013; Ishii et  al. 2017). However, \r attributing these changes in the state of the ocean to anthropogenic \r causes can be challenging due to the presence of internally generated \r variability, which can swamp the underlying climate change signal in \r short records and on regional scales. As can be seen in Figure 5.2, the \r observed long-term trends (Figure 5.2a) exhibit a striking similarity \r to the CMIP5 ensemble mean in areas where the models suggest \r that anthropogenic changes should be statistically significant \r (Figure 5.2b). However, the trends in the shorter well-observed \r period covering 2005-2017 (Figure 5.2d) exhibits strong trends from \r internal variability, as illustrated by the differences of two ensemble \r members of the same ESM with the same forcing but initialised with \r different weather (Figure 5.2e and 5.2f). Detection and Attribution \r [...]"


id: 4f895a976570f3c463e8f995ef8f9eca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:31
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11279
content:
"[...] studies take the internal variability into account and separate the \r underlying climate signals with the same spatio-temporal sampling \r as the observations, and apply a range of statistical tests to determine \r the coherence of the observations with the co-sampled observations \r (Bindoff et al. 2013; AR5 WG1 Box 10.1)."


