# document

id: d63c9661fedcf4903277afb20f5396a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35008
content:
"Three principles of distributive justice are especially relevant to \r\nadaptation: fairness between individuals, fairness between states and \r\nfairness between generations (Fleurbaey et al., 2014). Fairness between \r\nindividuals means that the distribution of goods, vulnerabilities and \r\nrisks of climate change should not fall on individuals for arbitrary \r\nreasons. It would be arbitrary if, say, a family were disproportionately \r\naffected by climate-induced drought by chance alone. Similarly, an \r\nadaptation action that protects some and creates risks for others is \r\nunfair if the final distribution of burdens and benefits is arbitrary."


id: 8ee00d3101c8ec29be182646e31e9647
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22323
content:
"Articulating the goals of adaptation is an important initial step in the \r\ndecision-making process (Jones et al 2014). Adaptation often involves \r\ntrade-offs among various options of adaptation, mitigation and \r\nsustainable development, as well as judgements based on science, \r\nengineering and economics, and questions of distribution and democratic \r\nparticipation (Jafry et al., 2018). Articulating the goals of adaptation at \r\nthe international, national and local levels thus requires engaging with \r\nthe concepts of equity, justice and effectiveness (high confidence)."


id: 7d88c51926756eab50e6d6fe11c27f50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19255
content:
"The second consideration of distributive justice is international justice, \r\nor fairness between states. An important idea in international climate \r\nnegotiations has been common but differentiated responsibilities\r\n(CBDR) and respective capabilities, stated in Principle 7 in the Rio \r\nDeclaration (1992), as well as by the Kyoto Protocol (1997). The principle \r\nreflects the underlying idea that all countries must address climate \r\nchange, but the form of climate action depends on the situation the \r\ncountry finds itself in. Developed countries may find themselves in a \r\nposition where they can decarbonise more rapidly and ensure financial \r\nflows, while the responsibilities of LDCs and SIDS may primarily come \r\nin the form of adaptation actions. This means that uneven distribution \r\nof wealth and power between (and within) countries is a key driver of \r\nclimate injustice."


id: dec01fa02cacaf4b83d852ddab30112a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36452
content:
"Assessing climate action involves ethical considerations that the \r\nliterature often describes as climate justice. The term 'climate justice,' \r\nhowever, has been used in different ways in different contexts and \r\nby different communities. Grassroot organisations and activists often \r\nfocus on unequal global power relations, wealth, and interests within \r\ncommunities, within nations, and along the North-South divide, as well \r\nas the historical responsibility for climate change (Chatterton et al., \r\n2013). Some national governments also view climate justice as the \r\nright of developing countries to industrialise. Balancing these issues, \r\ninternational climate change negotiations have primarily focused on \r\ncurrent capacities and responsibilities for addressing climate change \r\nas reflected in the UNFCCC principle of 'common but differentiated \r\nresponsibilities' (Fisher, 2015)."


id: 45aa177c20f86c0f1556111fe910cf3d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9472
content:
"The third consideration of distributive justice relevant to climate \r\nadaptation is fairness between generations and the obligation to ensure \r\nthat future generations are guaranteed at least a minimally decent life \r\n(Jonas, 1985; Llavador et al., 2010). For example, youth climate activists \r\nand political philosophers have argued that today's children, as well \r\nas generations yet unborn, will be exposed to far greater risks than \r\nmost living adults so that policymakers should work to avoid shifting all \r\nburdens of adaptation to future generations."


id: 8139644b6f0892db3612963de3b37e9b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19867
content:
"Since principles of justice are substantive normative commitments that \r\nhave been debated for centuries, it would be unrealistic to expect a \r\nuniversal consensus. Nevertheless, there is broad agreement about the \r\ncore issues. Just normative principles are ones that result in fair and \r\nequitable allocation of goods, vulnerabilities and risks (Caney, 2014; \r\nSchlosberg, 2009; Schlosberg, 2013; Jafry et al., 2018)"


id: 9aadecfa65946704dc41c70feaadf99e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24453
content:
"It is common to distinguish between distributive justice, procedural \r\njustice and recognition (Fraser, 1999; Schlosberg, 2003; Schlosberg, \r\n2009; Reckien et al., 2017; Forsyth, 2018; Olazabal et al., 2021). The first \r\nrefers to the distribution of burdens and benefits; the second to who \r\ndecides and participates in decision making; while recognition entails \r\nbasic respect and robust engagement with and fair consideration of \r\ndiverse values, cultures, perspectives, and worldviews. Recognition \r\nis closely linked to distributive and procedural justice (Hourdequin, \r\n2016). Without recognition, actors may not benefit from the two other \r\naspects of justice (medium confidence). Recognition thus represents \r\nboth a normative principle as well as an underlying cause of unjust \r\ndistribution and lack of democratic participation (Svarstad and \r\nBenjaminsen, 2020). However, recognition is still under-represented in "


id: b4c564e4f3c5ecd261ca03598aac1ac2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29056
content:
"In AR5 WGIII (IPCC, 2014a) discussions of justice and ethical concepts \r\nwere combined with discussions of economic principles while the \r\nadaptation chapters did not explicitly discuss climate justice. This \r\nreport moves beyond AR5 by connecting the assessment of policy \r\nchoices to normative principles and showing how better outcomes are \r\nobtained by choosing just ones."


id: 1cab2c45c256147e8e70617a855876ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2218
content:
"Planning and assessment of effective and just adaptation require \r\nappropriate measures of both criteria. This report uses both single and \r\nmulti-criteria measures. Local and regional decision makers employ \r\nbenefit-cost analysis to efficiently allocate scarce resources among \r\nalternative adaptation efforts and among adaptation and other societal \r\nneeds. Decision makers at national and global levels can employ \r\nmeasures of social welfare to consider trade-offs and synergies among \r\nadaptation, mitigation, and development. Such measures can avoid \r\nwasteful allocation of resources and help avoid maladaptation. Such \r\nmeasures also prove useful because well-established approaches exist \r\nto evaluate such quantities, and because income is highly correlated \r\nwith a wide range of indicators of social progress and climate change \r\nadaptation capacity (Dasgupta et al., 2018)."


id: 54225884eebefa39f883209f5db56d17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12079
content:
"The SDGs and Key Representative Risks (Chapter 16) exemplify such \r\nmulti-criteria measures. In addition, many communities increasingly \r\nmeasure policy outcomes using multi-objective measures, often \r\norganised around the concept of well-being and designed to allocate \r\nresources and implement policies to advance social progress (Lee et al., \r\n2015; City of Santa Monica, 2018). Similarly, the Human Development \r\nIndex (HDI), which derives from the capabilities approach, combines \r\nincome (as gross national income, GNI, and parity purchasing power, \r\nPPP) with an education and a health indicator and integrates human \r\nand socioeconomic factors (Herrero et  al., 2012; USEPA, 2016; Leal \r\nFilho et  al., 2018; Nagy et  al., 2018; UNDP, 2018). The inequality\u0002adjusted HDI value, or IHDI, can be interpreted as the level of human \r\ndevelopment when inequality is accounted for (UNDP, 2018)."


id: b66c22ce99e445d43638772506e7dab4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29306
content:
"living standards and equity. Improved health-care systems, disaster \r\nmanagement and early warning can reduce risks to human health. Better \r\nmanagement of land, soil and fisheries, and changing diets and reducing \r\nfood waste can reduce risks to food security. Improved water efficiency \r\nand policies to reduce demand can reduce risks to water security."


id: f2a6047c793d2ba412b6acffc07ef792
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40092
content:
"Adaptation actions include those taken with the explicit intention of \r\nreducing climate risk, as well as actions taken without reference to \r\nclimate change, for example, building community resilience irrespective \r\nof any particular hazard. Adaptation actions can include those aimed at \r\nreducing a specific risk or actions aimed at systemic changes, and also \r\ninclude adjustments to current practices or transformational changes. \r\nIn addition, the success of adaptation in one place or jurisdiction can \r\ndepend on activities in other places or jurisdictions."


id: a10e688345e654d690ed1208b1de94a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25556
content:
"There are concerns about large-scale conversion of non-forest land into forest plantations for the sole purpose of increasing carbon sinks \r\nthrough bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (Heck et al., 2018; Hanssen et al., 2020; Cross-Chapter Box in Chapter 2), \r\nwhich may actually result in negative carbon sink (Jackson et al., 2002; Mureva et al., 2018) and significant loss of overall biodiversity \r\n(Abreu et  al., 2017). Such large-scale afforestation may also lead to the dispossession of previous users, such as smallholders and \r\npastoralists. Hence, when NbS include forest plantations or other large-scale conversion of land use, there is a risk that they result in \r\nmaladaptation and malmitigation, including climate injustice (Seddon et al., 2019; Cousins, 2021)."


id: fcdf60e741cfb50ff3a1a38b1acb8389
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41855
content:
"Two concepts--enabling conditions and catalysing conditions--\r\nhelp frame this report's assessment of factors that over time can \r\nhelp expand the set of available solutions (Section  17.4). Enabling \r\nconditions enhance the feasibility of adaptation and mitigation options \r\n(AR6 Glossary, IPCC, 2021b). Enablers include finance, technological \r\ninnovation, strengthening policy instruments, institutional capacity, \r\nmulti-level governance and changes in human behaviour and \r\nlifestyles. Chapter 17 (see also WGIII Figure  1.4) identifies three \r\nbroad categories of enabling conditions: (Section 17.4): governance, "


id: e8077ab9abc0e3c10083edb7d9d4b040
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38135
content:
"finance and knowledge. Catalysing conditions motivate and accelerate \r\nthe adaptation decision-making process, leading to more frequent \r\nand more substantial adaptation (Chapter 17). While enablers make \r\nadaptation more feasible and effective, catalysing conditions provide \r\nan impetus for action. These later conditions include a sense of urgency \r\n(Section 17.4.5.1), system shocks, such as those from natural disasters, \r\npolicy entrepreneurs and social movements."


id: 81c09b199cf619d9aa5b89d5c0eaf8ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19956
content:
"trans-regional and trans-national levels (see also WG III Chapter 1). The \r\nconcept emphasises that modern governance generally consists of, and \r\nis more flexible, when there are linkages of governance processes across \r\ndifferent scales and levels. Multi-level governance is widely regarded as \r\ncrucial, particularly for transformational adaptation, defined as 'adapting \r\nto climate change resulting in significant changes in structure or function \r\nthat go beyond adjusting existing practices including approaches that \r\nenable new ways of decision making on adaptation' (IPCC SR1.5, IPCC, \r\n2018b; see also Section  1.5). The assessment in subsequent chapters \r\nalso shows that public governance arrangements and institutions \r\nsupport most adaptation for addressing the main climate risks, though \r\nthe importance of the private sector and community organisations in \r\nadaptation is increasing. It also shows that polycentric governance tends \r\nto benefit adaptation."


id: 1218c5fc2bf8dd72f11b7af311d02301
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 371
content:
"Governance capacity constitutes an important enabling condition \r\nnot only because it facilitates the (efficient) organisation and \r\nimplementation of adaptation action, but also because it contributes \r\nto learning. The latter is central to the process of adaptation as \r\ninformation regarding current and future climate conditions continues "


id: 865f32ae8e6dd7bcbd3e8613a8c3537c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20806
content:
"adaptation by mainstreaming adaptation into city plans, such as land \r\nuse planning, procuring resilient infrastructure and transportation, \r\nsupporting health and social services, promoting community-based \r\nadaptation, and protecting and integrating biodiversity and ecosystem \r\nservices into city planning (Section 17.4.3). Mainstreaming adaptation \r\nalso shows many shortcomings, such as diminishing the visibility of \r\ndedicated, stand-alone adaptation approaches (Persson et al., 2016), \r\nunequal distribution of adaptation efforts, diluting responsibilities for \r\nimplementation (Nalau et  al., 2016; Reckien et  al., 2019), exhibiting \r\ndisconnects between planning, investment and implementation, having \r\nlimited policy coherence (Friend et  al., 2014; Bizikova et  al., 2015; \r\nEngland et  al., 2018; Koch, 2018) and failing to adequately balance \r\noverlapping and/or competing policy objectives (Vij et al., 2018)."


id: 6121f7d2a4634934a4093837a4c85af6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14384
content:
"Finally, governing adaptation in ways that maximise the solution space \r\nand facilitate learning can help avoid maladaptation. Maladaptation \r\nrefers to potentially adverse effects of certain forms of adaptation \r\naction, such as increased GHG emissions or increased vulnerability \r\nto climate change and diminished welfare of certain parts of a \r\npopulation now or in the future (Anguelovski et al., 2016; Keskitalo \r\nand Pettersson, 2016; Veldkamp et  al., 2017; Zimmermann et  al., \r\n2018; Benzie et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018b; Munia et al., 2018; Nadin and \r\nRoberts, 2018; Prabhakar et al., 2018). Maladaptation is an example of \r\nresponse risk, which is increasingly highlighted in both AR6 WGII and "


id: 219d1f9e5d1736beb909ab5779d51018
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3122
content:
"Mainstreaming adaptation into existing governance structures and \r\nassociated organisations and their investments, policies and practices \r\ncan contribute to expanding the solution space and support efforts at \r\ntransformative adaptation. For instance, urban planning can support "


id: cdc7308c5a4221a2b4ce0e28289e7704
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33530
content:
"Figure 1.8 |  Adaptation assessment prior to implementation and M&E during and after implementation. Both systematic assessment of adaptation needs and \r\noptions and M&E of implemented adaptation are key to iterative climate risk management and to achieving effective and equitable adaptation. Most assessments to date have \r\nreferred to aspects prior to implementation. There is much less systematic evidence on adaptation action, and even less evidence on adaptation outcomes and impacts and their \r\nimplications for climate change impacts, risks, vulnerabilities and resilience. Figure 17.9 provides more detail on M&E."


id: 3e7deaf9d65b10256b0f157be4384216
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8177
content:
"WGIII (Section 1.3.1.2; see also IPCC Risk Guidance, Reisinger, 2020). \r\nOne example is that adaptation action may set paths that limit the \r\nchoices of future generations to adapt. This last characteristic refers \r\nto the lock-in effects of improperly designed and costly infrastructures \r\nthat affect the ability of future generations to amend."


id: da93ea701a202c6ff854c77a3ff82fb1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35750
content:
"and equity, often resulting in recommendations for decision makers \r\n(Sections  17.5.1.1; 17.5.1.7). In some literatures M&E refers solely to \r\nefforts undertaken after implementation. In other literatures, M&E refers \r\nboth to efforts conducted before and after implementation. As shown in \r\nFigure 1.8, M&E is essential to the process of iterative risk management, \r\nboth in terms of adaptation assessment prior to implementation and \r\nM&E of implemented adaptation measures. AR6 highlights that M&E \r\nafter implementation is much less common than adaptation assessment \r\nprior to implementation (Section 17.5.2.1; Berrang-Ford, 2020)."


id: 7ac3022ff62d793b054d96525f27f86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18796
content:
"Tracking adaptation planning and policies: Since AR5, interest in M&E \r\nfor tracking progress in adaptation has grown substantially at the \r\nlocal, national and global level. The Paris Agreement calls for a global \r\nstocktake every 5 years starting in 2023 (Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS \r\nin Chapter 17). It also encourages states to monitor and evaluate their \r\nadaptation plans, policies, programmes and actions and provides \r\nguidance on communicating information about adaptation to the \r\ninternational community (UNFCCC, 2015b, Article 7.9d; UNFCCC, \r\n2018a, Decision 9/CMA.1; UNFCCC, 2018b, Decision 18/CMA.1)."


id: 1668e3dac264260669f58ba99b7925dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1157
content:
"Since AR5, a large number of case studies on individual local to national \r\nlevel adaptation measures have been published (see Chambwera \r\net  al., 2014; Keskitalo and Preston, 2019b), as well as comparative \r\nstudies across countries over multiple years (Lesnikowski et al., 2016; \r\nBiesbroek et  al., 2018; Biesbroek and Delaney, 2020). The existing \r\nliterature now allows for at least preliminary conclusions about where \r\nand why we observe adaptation efforts, as described in the sectoral, \r\nregional and synthesis chapters of this report."


id: e6eacd195cb39a14c800823350353428
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37914
content:
"While case studies provide context-specific insights, global inventories \r\nare essential for tracking global progress on adaptation (UNEP, 2018; \r\nUNEP et al., 2021; Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS). Until recently, the \r\ndominant approach surveyed National Communications to the UNFCCC \r\nto measure the amount of adaptation planning activity worldwide \r\n(Gagnon-Lebrun and Agrawala, 2007; Lesnikowski et al., 2016). More \r\nrecent assessments have focused also on the quality of local and "


id: 9446c3c7d3287902dd5c18839e85641e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23292
content:
"M&E encompasses a broad range of activities serving multiple purposes, \r\nincluding tracking progress of adaptation efforts over time, understanding \r\nequity and effectiveness of adaptation options and outcomes, and \r\ninforming ongoing adaptation processes (Section  17.5.2.1). While \r\nmonitoring and evaluation are often referred to jointly as 'M&E,' \r\nmonitoring usually refers to continuous information gathering, whereas \r\nevaluation denotes more comprehensive assessments of effectiveness "


id: e8a6c72db66501084860f8c2a9fe9bfc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38274
content:
"Authors: Johanna Nalau (Australia/Finland), Lauren Rickards (Australia), Tabea Lissner (Germany), Katharine J. Mach (USA), Lisa Schipper \r\n(Sweden/UK), Chandni Singh (India), William Solecki (USA), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas) and Edmond Totin (Benin)"


id: e0d9580f208439a0f434f86e5d40c635
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36825
content:
"This cross-chapter box complements the reviews of specific adaptation knowledge, content and progress described throughout WGII by \r\nproviding a higher-level analysis of the shifting characteristics of and trends in adaptation research and its evolution over time."


id: 5a2a1a33452aade4cd82dc3c283bf9cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13111
content:
"The knowledge base on adaptation has matured significantly since AR5. Whereas adaptation research was primarily academic during the \r\n1990s and 2000s, it now includes a proliferation of on-the-ground experience of how to adapt to climate change, increasingly documented \r\nin reports and papers. Furthermore, academic research on adaptation has diversified significantly. Understanding the characteristics and \r\ndiversity of this knowledge base is key for it to effectively inform decision making and action on adaptation."


id: aa0271be3576fb4aca656ab48428b894
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27134
content:
"IPCC assessment reports combine two complementary approaches to adaptation research: that which is 'on' or 'about' adaptation and \r\nthat which is 'for adaptation'. Both are needed because research 'on adaptation' helpfully investigates the phenomenon and processes of \r\nadaptation (e.g., via analyses of others' adaptation practices and efforts), while research 'for adaptation' generates knowledge that can enable \r\nthe planning and implementation of adaptation (e.g., action research as part of an adaptive capacity-building process) (Swart et al., 2014)."


id: 92edd0316717fcb16e5c165a8fff6d70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23061
content:
"Grey literature on adaptation is also proliferating, typically authored by organisations funding and implementing adaptation. This literature \r\noften documents a range of adaptation strategies (Sections 9.8.3; 10.4.6.4; 14.4.3.3; 17.2.1.) and lived experiences of adaptation efforts, \r\nincluding helping give voice to marginalised groups, and highlighting the importance of IK and LK (Sections 4.7.5.4; 15.6.4; Box 9.2; Cross\u0002Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18; Nunn et al., 2016; Petzold et al., 2020). However, most of the lessons learned through implementation of \r\nadaptation projects and programmes are still not captured in academic or even grey literature and thus remain less systematically analysed. \r\nCrucially, the large gaps in documentation of adaptation knowledge mean that a lack of published evidence about a given issue does not \r\nnecessarily reflect its absence in real life--a qualification about adaptation research that readers of AR6 should appreciate."


id: e65b96f0ac9006feec12bd75231c1bc0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37833
content:
"In the 1990s, climate change adaptation was constrained as a specific topic of inquiry by the dominant focus on mitigation of GHG \r\nemissions and the related assumption that successful mitigation would render unnecessary the need for adaptation beyond what human \r\nand natural systems could inherently manage (Pielke, 1998; Schipper, 2006; Schipper and Burton, 2009). Several key developments in the \r\n1990s included IPCC's 2nd report (1996) and the establishment of several key journals including Climatic Change (1978), Mitigation and \r\nAdaptation Strategies to Global Change (1996) and the Global Environmental Change journal that strengthened more dedicated focus \r\non climate change related research."


id: 2cbd3a52e29218dcbdedeaa86e0f5987
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5136
content:
"Many foundational papers on key concepts central to adaptation were published in the 1990s and early 2000s onwards (Burton, 1992; \r\nSmit, 1993; Smithers and Smit, 1997; Parry and Carter, 1998; Fankhauser et al., 1999; Smit et al., 1999; Pittock and Jones, 2000; Klein, 2003; "


id: 11575d642a68ba420cd44e20f4c01597
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 250
content:
"Adger et al., 2005), while adaptation began to gain more prominence in IPCC's 3rd assessment (2001) and 4th assessment (2007). For \r\nexample, the Canada Climate Programme report (Smit, 1993) set out many of the principles of adaptation and was highly influential \r\ncharting these concepts in IPCC's 3rd Assessment Report (Schipper and Burton, 2009). These papers and IPCC reports remain key \r\nfoundations of climate adaptation science literature (Nalau and Verrall, 2021)."


id: 18143fc6e132d9f4e642ff878d40a051
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1445
content:
"Fundamental questions about equity and justice in adaptation include gender and intersectionality (see Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in \r\nChapter 18; Section 1.4.1.1; Chapter 18;) and broader critiques of who participates in processes of adaptation planning and implementation, \r\nwho receives investments, who and what benefits from them, who makes key decisions regarding adjustments through time (Taylor et al., \r\n2014; Boeckmann and Zeeb, 2016; Nightingale et al., 2019; Pelling and Garschagen, 2019; Byskov et al., 2021; Eriksen et al., 2021) and "


id: af7e44ea934bc9d65e8928bdab1c7e2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28109
content:
"All of these developments indicate that adaptation research is not only more reflexive about some of its central assumptions, methodologies \r\nand tools (Biesbroek et al., 2013; Conway and Mustelin, 2014; Nalau et al., 2015; Nightingale, 2015a; Porter et al., 2015; Eriksen et al., \r\n2015; Lubell and Niles, 2019; Woroniecki et  al., 2019; Singh et  al., 2021), but also cognisant of the need to critically consider its \r\nunderpinning goals, purpose and impact in the world."


id: d3febed84581079e18a50f76c4db625a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34630
content:
"Informing ongoing adaptation: Iterative risk management involves an \r\nongoing cycle of assessment, action, learning and response in which \r\nM&E plays a central, enabling role (Section 1.2.1.1). Assessing the risk \r\nreduction provided by adaptation, both planned and implemented, \r\noften requires projections of anticipated future climate, socioeconomic \r\nconditions, and the effectiveness and implications for justice of each \r\noption (Section 17.4.4). Understanding the potential for maladaptation \r\nmay also require such assessments (Section 1.4.2). Processes, such as \r\nadaptive pathways, that involve anticipating future responses (Boxes \r\n11.4; 11.6; Sections  11.7; 17.3) entail monitoring to detect early \r\nwarning of approaching thresholds or changes in the solution space \r\n(e.g., more rapid than expected sea level rise or new social acceptance \r\nof managed retreat) that suggest the need or opportunity to adjust or \r\nexpand current adaptation efforts (Haasnoot et al., 2021)."


id: 744e7cec282d57f0eaf171d892fe23bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17697
content:
"national adaptation planning to better characterise its potential merits, \r\nshortcomings and effects (Woodruff and Regan, 2019; UNEP et  al., \r\n2021) and have compiled inventories of adaptation projects (Leiter, \r\n2021) and local adaptation policies (Reckien et al., 2018;Lesnikowski \r\net al., 2019b; Olazabal et al., 2019; see also Section 6.4.6). Chapters \r\n16 and 17 of this report offer an initial synthesis, but efforts to compile \r\na comprehensive global, empirical inventory of climate change \r\nadaptation remain in an early phase (e.g., Tompkins et  al., 2010; \r\nBerrang-Ford et  al., 2011; GEF, 2011; Ford et  al., 2015; Lesnikowski \r\net al., 2016; Fankhauser, 2017; Leiter, 2021; Tompkins et al., 2018)."


id: 3a791698c4f573dec10c77fd78d27017
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7487
content:
"Improving effectiveness: Information regarding the effectiveness of \r\nadaptation remains scarce (UNEP et al., 2021), which hinders efforts \r\nto improve adaptation practice. A recent comprehensive review found \r\nthat only 2.3% of the close to 1700 articles identified by the Global \r\nAdaptation Mapping Initiative as documenting implemented adaptation \r\nprovide evidence of risk reduction (Chapter 16; Berrang-Ford, 2020). \r\nHowever, there is limited but emerging evidence of the use of M&E by \r\ndifferent actors to assess adaptation progress (Section 17.5.1)."


id: a1f1e748a49e1815a639cfad05ad3aa2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25727
content:
"report provides evidence of assessing transformational adaptation in \r\nterms of scope, depth, speed and limits to adaptation (Chapter 16)."


id: bb2604ea0d95daebc6713d76739faef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30145
content:
"its essential function, identity and structure. Soft limits represent the \r\nrange of change or disturbance of a system which can be sustained \r\nover time by innovation or policy changes. The level of GHG emissions \r\nreduction, adaptation and risk management measures are the key \r\nfactors determining if and when adaptation limits are reached."


id: 4ffb4e4ad62325b6a400b62872589ee0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11367
content:
"When a limit (soft) is reached, then intolerable risks and impacts may \r\noccur, and additional adaptations (incremental or transformational) \r\nare required.to reduce or avoid these risks and impacts (Chapters \r\n16; 17). IPCC SR1.5 defined incremental adaptation that maintains \r\nthe essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale, \r\nwhereas transformational adaptation that changes the fundamental \r\nattributes of a socio-ecological system in anticipation of climate \r\nchange and its impacts. When incremental adaptation is insufficient \r\nto avoid intolerable risks, transformational adaptation may be able \r\nto extend the potential to sustain human and natural systems (IPCC, \r\n2018a; Cross-Chapter Box  LOSS in Chapter 17; Klein et  al., 2014b). \r\nTransformational adaptation can allow a system to extend beyond \r\nits soft limits and prevent soft limits from becoming hard limits. This "


id: f46c58e6bffc4d22324c9cd864a5c765
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40377
content:
"This report highlights that transformative system change is required to \r\nmeet the SDGs (Chapter 18). Transformation is defined as 'a change \r\nin the fundamental attributes of a system including altered goals or \r\nvalues' (SR 1.5). The related concept of transition is defined as 'the \r\nprocess of changing from one state or condition to another in a given \r\nperiod of time' (IPCC SR 1.5/SRCCL; also see Section 1.5.2)."


id: 78ba25f7e13bcb9ad82028870dc5ac04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18433
content:
"The concepts of transition and transformation help organise assessments \r\nof near- and longer-term adaptation actions that may prove feasible and \r\neffective in achieving societal goals related to climate and sustainable \r\ndevelopment."


id: d40f3199d720443330f18faad1d59d5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34641
content:
"As used in the global environmental change literature, transformation is \r\na pluralistic concept embracing many interpretations (Box 18.3), but all \r\nfocus on the general idea of fundamental change in society as opposed to \r\nchange that is minor, marginal or incremental. Uses of the term can differ \r\nwith respect to: (a) how the system undergoing change is conceptualised, \r\n(b) the extent to which change is continuous or discontinuous and the "


id: 2e9f262fe639e8a07b60bfdd39a81966
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5480
content:
"at large scope or scale, (b) the type of adaptation that occurs once soft \r\nlimits have been breached, or (c) change that addresses root causes of \r\nvulnerability as well as redressing long-standing inequities. The Fifth \r\nAssessment Report's WGIII employed the concepts of transformation \r\nand transformation pathways to assess the large-scale societal \r\nchanges needed to meet GHG emission reduction goals."


id: 9a417a3360d54d2d5803083f4ced8c75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24382
content:
"time scales involved, (c) the extent to which transformation is guided \r\ntowards desired goals or emerges without intent and (d) whether \r\nthe usage focuses on descriptions of societal processes or includes \r\nnormative judgements as to which outcomes should or should not \r\noccur (Feola, 2015) . The literature generally uses transformation as an \r\nanalytic-descriptive concept, which aims to describe significant change \r\nin couple human-natural systems, or as a solutions-oriented concept, \r\nwhich aims to inform or contribute to societal change."


id: 1a1d7c1679b41a11974baba97a1ed142
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1791
content:
"This WGII report focuses on transformational adaptation as one \r\ncomponent of climate resilient development in which adaptation, \r\nmitigation and development solutions are pursued together to exploit \r\nsynergies and reduce trade-offs among these actions (Section 1.5.3; \r\nChapter 18). Chapter 16 assesses the extent to which transformational \r\nadaptation is currently being implemented, using criteria including the \r\nscope, depth and speed of the adaptation actions, as well as the extent \r\nto which limits to adaptation have been considered (Section 16.3.2.4). \r\nChapter 17 ranks potential adaptation options by where they lie on the \r\nincremental to transformational continuum (Section 17.2.2.4)."


id: 7d993d5e6b1611da5d7e789722d047d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19268
content:
"The IPCC Fifth Assessment cycle, starting with its Special Report \r\non Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance \r\nClimate Change Adaptation (SREX), first highlighted the concept of \r\ntransformation, drawing primarily on the solutions-oriented approaches \r\nof O'Brien (2011) and Pelling (2011). This Sixth Assessment report also \r\ngenerally employs transformation as a solutions-oriented concept, with \r\nmention in almost all chapters and significant emphasis in the synthesis \r\nchapters."


id: ddf65263c4c9fe83743d6c50928bfd0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36314
content:
"The IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle also highlights the concept of \r\ntransition, drawn from the sustainability transitions literature (Kohler \r\net al., 2019). The 1.5 SR organises its assessments of feasibility and \r\npotential policy actions around transitions in four socio-technical \r\nsystem: energy, land, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems \r\n(IPCC, 2018b, Chapter 4). This report adds a fifth system transition--a \r\nsocietal transition focused on attributes that drive innovation, the \r\nevolution of patterns of consumption and development and power \r\nrelationships among societal actors (Section  18.1.4). The AR6 WGIII \r\nreport is organised around six systems transitions: energy; agricultural, \r\nforestry, other land use; urban; buildings; transportation; and industry, \r\nwhich includes supply chains and the circular economy."


id: eeb4b1a8738d219fe84cde2fbfac2b03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39379
content:
"Societal transformation can arise without explicit intent as, arguably, \r\ndid the industrial revolution and some of the trends re-making today's \r\nsociety (see Section 1.1). In order to help policymakers achieve societal \r\ngoals, this report seeks to identify the conditions for deliberate \r\ntransformations, that is, those envisioned and intended by at least \r\nsome societal actors (Linner and Wibeck, 2019)."


id: ab53484750b1727bdc00f01151214c1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27369
content:
"The literature offers multiple views on the relationships between \r\ntransition and transformation (Box  18.3). The 1.5 SR suggests that \r\ntransformation is needed to generate the four system transitions. \r\nIn many literatures, transformation is considered a more expansive \r\nprocess than transition, with the former less exclusively focused on \r\nsocio-technical systems and more engaged with questions of power, \r\npolitics, capabilities, culture, identity and sense-making (Gillard et al., \r\n2016; Holscher et  al., 2018; Linner and Wibeck, 2019). This report \r\ngenerally takes this more expansive view of transformation to engage \r\nwith issues of equity, climate justice and large-scale institutional and \r\nsocietal change (Box 18.3)."


id: 28930fe1ca186d29c72fc08dc1dd4dac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4350
content:
"This WGII report has a particular focus on transformational \r\nadaptation (Section 1.4.4.1), which it views as laying on a continuum \r\nfrom incremental and transformational with no sharp division between \r\nthem (Sections 1.5.2; 17.2.2.3)."


id: 58c7c06e1d3b1ba76a9c0528df76269
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12861
content:
"Multiple narratives describe pathways for pursuing deliberate \r\ntransformations (Cavanagh and Benjaminsen, 2017). While building \r\non the new 'green economy' framing that emerged with the Rio+20 \r\nconference in 2012 (UNEP, 2011; De Mello and Dutz, 2012; OECD, 2012), \r\nthese narratives reflect differing trade-offs among values and differing \r\nassumptions about the factors driving system change (see WGIII). \r\nThe narratives range from 'business-as-usual' scenarios focused on \r\nmodernisation of sectors such as energy, agriculture and use of natural \r\nresources to more transformational propositions such as various green \r\nnew deal proposals (European Commission, 2019), the new climate \r\neconomy (Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2018), \r\nand 'doughnut economics' (Raworth, 2017). Some literature suggests \r\nsignificant benefits from such new climate economy proposals, claiming "


id: 1526640065352b21b1916efdaf1a531
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 933
content:
"The IPCC first highlighted the concept of transformational adaptation \r\nin SREX. SREX generally used the phrase transformation to refer to \r\nfundamental societal changes that advance climate adaptation, disaster \r\nrisk management and sustainable development. Transformation \r\nwas seen as one part of the solution space alongside options such \r\nas reducing vulnerability and exposure, and increasing resilience for \r\nmanaging risk. WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report used the \r\nphrase 'transformational adaptation' to contrast with 'incremental \r\nadaptation'. That report used the former term to refer to: (a) adaptation "


id: 7c3a106fd52c428a611fa627011e3814
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19068
content:
"tens of trillions in economic benefits, tens of millions of new jobs and \r\nclose to a million fewer premature deaths from pollution over the \r\ncoming decade (Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2018)."


id: d51f9e3f281d994593d280ef6be3a5d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34818
content:
"reliance on negative emissions technologies, such as the large-scale \r\ndeployment of BECCS (e.g., illustrative emissions reduction pathway \r\nlabelled P4 in IPCC SR1.5, IPCC, 2018b; also WGIII Chapter 3) and \r\naims to generate progress toward achieving the SDGs by prioritising \r\nredistribution rather than GDP growth. SDGs potentially addressed by \r\ndegrowth include universal basic income (SDGs 1 and 10), work-sharing \r\nto guarantee full employment (SDGs 8 and 10) and shifting taxation \r\nburdens from income to resource and energy extraction (SDGs 8 and 12)."


id: 28fc1f7b80230d962f833d8d73eb915b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4422
content:
"Two contrasting schools of thought, called ecomodernism and degrowth \r\n(D'Alisa et  al., 2014), offer important bounding narratives for 'green \r\neconomy' approaches that aim achieve the SDGs and Paris Agreement \r\ngoals."


id: f18e307e892a5330a8625b4d19d96bc6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39880
content:
"The contrasting premises of ecomodernism and degrowth have \r\nprompted a series of mutual counterarguments. Degrowth scholars \r\nemphasise that global absolute decoupling is currently not proceeding \r\nfast enough to meet Paris Agreement targets (Ward et al., 2016; Moreau \r\net  al., 2019; Haberl et  al., 2020). Ecomodernists point to important \r\nprogress towards achieving absolute decoupling at the national or \r\nregional scale--as shown by Le Quere et al. (2019) in 18 developed \r\ncountries--and the future potential of emerging technologies and \r\npolicy reforms (Asafu-Adjaye et al., 2015)"


id: 8239af265a50d24bbd80146c82d4070c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20040
content:
"Ecomodernism aims to decouple GHG emissions and other environmental \r\nimpacts from GDP growth (WGIII Section 1.4.1; Desrochers and Szurmak., \r\n2020) through three primary strategies: (a) 'green' technological \r\ninnovation, (b) resource efficiency or productivity improvements and (c) \r\nthe sustainable intensification of land use in both rural and urban areas \r\n(Asafu-Adjaye et  al., 2015; Isenhour, 2016). Such efforts to mobilise \r\nlarge-scale investment in climate change adaptation and to decouple \r\nGDP growth from environmental impacts could generate substantial \r\nemployment opportunities and open up profitable investment frontiers \r\n(Asafu-Adjaye et al., 2015; Adelman, 2018), which could help achieve \r\nSDG 8, which calls for accelerated annual growth rates of at least 7% in \r\nleast developed countries and achieve SDG 10, which calls for 'income \r\ngrowth of the bottom 40% of the population at a rate higher than the \r\nnational average'."


id: fb07b4ea86020b33149eb2b2583f427
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41545
content:
"As one important theme, this Sixth Assessment report assesses who \r\nneeds to take what actions and when in order that transformations \r\nunfold at sufficient speed and scale to meet the Paris Agreement, the \r\nSDGs and other policy goals. A number of literatures inform these \r\nassessments."


id: 354dfc65ea4c82dd2014bf4d6f5fa85e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6628
content:
"Degrowth proponents question the feasibility of decoupling at a scale \r\nand rate sufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals (Kallis, 2017; Parrique \r\net  al., 2019; Gomez-Baggethun, 2020; Hickel and Kallis, 2020). Using \r\nprecautionary principle-rooted arguments (Latouche, 2001), degrowth \r\naims for intentional decreases in both GDP and coupled GHG emissions \r\n(Kallis, 2011) using policy mechanisms such a 'cap and share' framework \r\nfor distributing emissions permits on an annually declining basis with \r\nlegislation to prohibit the overshoot of established carbon budgets \r\n(Douthwaite, 2012; Kallis et al., 2012). Degrowth thus seeks to minimise "


id: 69e31436a559f45039f7591aa79d0101
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15898
content:
"Various literatures describe multiple, co-evolving societal elements \r\nwhich organise themselves into stable regimes that, under some \r\ncircumstances, can undergo significant change. The sustainability \r\ntransitions literature provides one central focus for understanding such \r\nprocesses and potential intervention points for actors seeking change "


id: fda3726337703ccf08ced33c36a31a7e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41975
content:
"The incremental cycle is characterised by reactive responses to external \r\ndrivers and performance evaluation relative to past performance. Shifts \r\nto the transformational cycle are characterised by more pro-active \r\nresponses and more expansive problem framings."


id: ae13885b325cefba98b35639993bef8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27868
content:
"The socio-ecological and sustainability transitions literature describes \r\ntransitions as often nonlinear, characterised by tipping point behaviour \r\nwith periods of relative stability interspersed with periods of more rapid \r\nchange as thresholds are crossed (van Ginkel et al., 2020). Actors seeking \r\ntransformation may take incremental steps that aim to induce such \r\ntipping point behaviour (Otto et al., 2020b). For instance, full accounting \r\nof climate risk in insurance and financial lending decisions could similarly \r\nact as such social tipping point interventions for adaptation (Hill and \r\nMartinez-Diaz, 2019). Transformations need not, however, be equitable \r\nor smooth. Historical examples suggest the potential for rigidity traps, \r\nin which suppression of innovation and a high degree of connectivity in \r\na system delay an eventual transformation, which, when it eventually \r\noccurs, unfolds as exceptionally harsh (Hegmon et al., 2008)."


id: 43ac4f4190b4b05d4026d2634a897db5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9134
content:
"Many actors can contribute to launching or blocking significant system \r\nchange. Pelling et al. (2015) highlights power relationships within and \r\namong activity spheres that influence the process of transformational \r\nadaptation and distribution of risks. In the sustainability transitions \r\nliterature each set of actors--including those from academia, politics, \r\nindustry, civil society and households--brings their own resources, \r\ncapabilities, beliefs, strategies and interests, which affects their \r\ninterest, objectives, ability to affect the process and their ability to \r\naffect others (Kern and Rogge, 2018)."


id: 4ed3a3ee825efa95174718671ae19285
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11150
content:
"There is no consensus in the literature on the best means for actors \r\nto pursue deliberate transformation (Section  1.5.1) and the extent \r\nto which actors can guide the process. The transitions and some \r\ntransformation literature derive from a complex systems perspective ( \r\nSection 1.3.1.2; Kohler et al., 2019; Linner and Wibeck, 2019) in which \r\nbehaviours can be understood but not predicted (Chapter 17; Mitchell, \r\n2009). These literatures suggest that interventions in such systems will \r\nrarely result in them evolving along some pre-determined pathway. \r\nRather, successful interventions more often resemble iterative \r\nprocesses of action, observation and response, which are described \r\nin the literature with terms such as iterative risk management \r\n(Section 17.2.1), clumsy solutions (Thompson and Rayner, 1998; Linner \r\nand Wibeck, 2019), probe and response (Chapter 17; French, 2013) and \r\nwhat Young (2017) calls adaptive governance."


id: ca12651559f80cb46acd526f35f86918
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32882
content:
"The socio-ecological systems literature, a main source of the resilience \r\nconcept, focuses on the system elements of society and ecosystems, \r\ntheir interdependence and on how they change in response to shocks \r\n(Section 1.2.1.4). Coupled human and natural systems maintain their \r\nvital functions through what are called adaptive cycles that begin \r\nwith growth, reach a period of stasis, experience a disruption and \r\nthen reorganise. This repeating cycle can leave the system unchanged \r\nor transition it to new states. Human agency can alter system \r\ncharacteristics so that after any disruption the system will reorganise \r\ninto a different, more desired state, guide the reorganisation in desired \r\ndirections after a system shock (such as a natural disaster) or provide \r\nthe shock that catalyses a reorganisation."


id: 7a6407ed39cd196f2ac7cced3ba4712
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18727
content:
"These literatures view transformation as a collective action challenge \r\namong actors with both common and differing values, interests and \r\ncapabilities interacting over time with a mix of cooperation and \r\ncompetition (Young, 2017; Dasgupta et  al., 2018). Concepts such as \r\nradical incremental transformation (Gopel, 2016), direct incrementalism \r\n(Grunwald 2007) and progressive incrementalism (Levin et al., 2012) \r\nenvision strategies in which actors pursue incremental actions in one or \r\nmore niches that move the current system towards tipping points which, \r\nonce crossed, will drive the system to a new state (Tabara et al., 2018). The \r\nincremental actions aim to promote learning, remove barriers to change \r\n( Dasgupta et al., 2018; Baresi et al., 2020), create a series of wins that \r\ngenerate momentum and generate positive feedbacks (e.g., by creating \r\nconstituencies) such that the speed and scale of the climate action "


id: 7877f2e9f7cda75277a413c01783c023
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18397
content:
"These literatures view incremental and transformational change as \r\nlinked processes. In the transformational adaptation literature, Park \r\net  al. (2012) consider incremental and transformational adaptation \r\nas two concentric and linked action-learning cycles with similar steps \r\nthat include monitoring and learning. Systems generally reside in the \r\nincremental cycle but can temporarily jump to the transformational cycle \r\nbefore returning to the incremental, albeit in a state with fundamentally \r\nchanged attributes. Shifts from the incremental to transformational cycle \r\nare made possible by knowledge and skills, as well as adjustments to \r\nvision, agendas and coalitions achieved through monitoring and learning. "


id: 735884e1ea8eca4ae19dad38256380e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17544
content:
"explain where a community is, where it wants to go and how it intends \r\nto get there are an important enabler of transformation (Sections 1.5.1; \r\n1.2.3; Linner and Wibeck, 2019; Fazey et al., 2020)."


id: bda6f247910e6d36a5618e5ee364b094
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30624
content:
"grows over time (Levin et al., 2012). However, incremental strategies \r\ncan fail to move fast enough, can succumb to path-dependency that \r\nlocks in initially helpful but long-term adverse responses (such as the \r\nwell-known levee effect) (Sadoff 2015; Haasnoot 2019) or can result in \r\na transition that meets some goals (e.g., environmental) but not others \r\n(e.g., equity) (high confidence)."


id: b14cb52d29c4583629a929141148ff7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28425
content:
"Adaptation and mitigation can reduce climate-related risks. Implementing \r\nthese two types of climate action together increases their effectiveness \r\nby exploiting synergies and reducing trade-offs among them. In \r\naddition, implementing adaptation and mitigation as an integral part of \r\ndevelopment can similarly make all three more effective (Section 18.2.3). \r\nThe link between climate change and sustainable development has long \r\nbeen recognised and has been assessed in every Working Group II report \r\nsince AR3. AR5 introduced the concept of climate resilient development \r\nto help assess development trajectories that include co-ordinated \r\nadaptation and mitigation actions aimed at reducing climate risk."


id: 9a8c554014405cbdf31b4ebd39b314f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24432
content:
"As a central feature, such frameworks and tools embrace: (a) multiple \r\nobjectives and measures (Section  1.4.1.2) to help identify and \r\nconsider trade-offs among parties with a diversity of interests, values \r\nand objectives and (b) multiple scenarios that enable stress-testing \r\nof proposed actions to identify conditions in which they would fail \r\nto meet their goals and thus inform consideration of ways to make \r\nthose actions more robust and resilient over multiple futures in the \r\nnear and longer term (Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter \r\n17). A focus on single or overly aggregated measures (Section 1.4.1.2) \r\nand single scenarios can privilege some actors' views over others, \r\nreduce transparency and make it more difficult to identify resilient \r\nand equitable solutions to complex, deeply uncertain, non-linear and \r\ncontested problems (Schoen and and Rein, 1994; Renn, 2008; Jones \r\net al., 2014; Lempert and Turner, 2020) (medium confidence)."


id: bf8c03e7a70d60ae57c71d8893443144
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30962
content:
"Introduced in the WGII AR5 (Olsson et al., 2014), and further addressed \r\nin SR1.5, climate resilient development pathways are trajectories \r\nthat strengthen sustainable development and efforts to eradicate \r\npoverty and reduce inequalities, while promoting fair and equitable \r\nreductions of GHG emissions, and serve to steer societies towards low-"


id: 5be151b3932d9126f6101db0bca9a9b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13424
content:
"information (Sections 18.4.2; 18.9.2). The pursuit of equity and justice \r\nare both an enabler and an outcome of climate resilient development \r\n(Section 18.1.4). Climate resilient development involves a process of \r\naction, learning and response (Section  1.5.2), so the capability for \r\nsuch monitoring and iterative risk management also represents an \r\nimportant enabling condition (Section 18.1.4.2). Governments have an \r\nimportant role to play in expanding the solution space, often focusing \r\non technology, policy and finance. Expanding the solution space also \r\nrequires a broader set of actors. Chapter 18 and other chapters in this \r\nreport use the climate resilient development concept to highlight the \r\nrole of citizens, civil society, knowledge institutions, media, investors \r\nand businesses, and the importance of expanding the arenas of \r\nengagement in which they interact."


id: dacb35f82102b35ea0ac24379fc5f4a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35786
content:
"The IPCC mandate involves the provisioning of available scientific \r\ninformation and evidence to inform climate action by multiple actors, \r\nnotably governments (including international alliances) in the context \r\nof UNFCCC. Increasingly, IPCC assessments also aim to provide \r\nvaluable information to non-governmental organisations, small and \r\nlarge enterprises, and citizens."


id: 38736dfb7d21380053c823309d2d5328
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7141
content:
"Figure  1.10 shows the structure of this report, organised into three \r\nsections comprising chapters and cross-chapter papers. This first \r\nchapter provides the point of departure for this assessment, defines \r\nkey concepts and describes the connections among them."


id: 8a24259a5c3719cbe09053d1b2f58f7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21478
content:
"to highlight and expand relevant material from chapters and beyond \r\ninto one place to ensure the integrated treatment of particular systems \r\nor regions and to improve accessibility of the report to readers."


id: 10d478c2e2177e9ac93a0d864e4220a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 148
content:
"The next group of chapters assess risks, adaptation and sustainability \r\nfor systems impacted by climate change from the vantage of seven \r\nsectoral chapters, The next group of chapters organises the assessment \r\nfrom the vantage of seven regional chapters."


id: 3a2aa8f1404d737b66ae4938ac5d67a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7440
content:
"Finally, section three highlights sustainable development pathways \r\nintegrating adaptation and mitigation through three synthesis \r\nchapters. The synthesis chapters summarise findings across all the \r\nchapters, CCPs and literatures on key risks, decision-making options \r\nand climate resilient development pathways that can lead from the \r\ncurrent situation to a future more consistent with the stated policy \r\ngoals. This report also assesses the adaptation options available, the \r\nextent to which such options can reduce risk, the effectiveness of \r\ncurrent adaptation efforts, and their interactions with mitigation and \r\nsustainable development."


id: 183469af8fc3cdcdf3b08444bde27e70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1457
content:
"In contrast to previous assessments, the current report embeds \r\nadaptation in each regional and sectoral chapter rather than in separate \r\nadaptation chapters, in order to reflect the increasing prevalence of \r\nadaptation and the extent to which many current risk, impacts and \r\nvulnerability estimates incorporate adaptation actions already taken. \r\nIn addition, CCPs integrate across chapter topics, sectors and regions \r\nin particular types of geographies or ecosystems, termed typological \r\nregions, such as mountains, cities by the sea or tropical forests. CCPs \r\nare a new element in WGII AR6 included at the request of governments "


id: 8efd361e0d4237db979764dd28f04ad9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22349
content:
"The goals of climate change adaptation, as a broad concept, are to reduce risk and vulnerability to climate change, strengthen resilience, \r\nenhance well-being and the capacity to anticipate, and respond successfully to change. Existing international frameworks provide a high-level \r\ndirection for coordinating, financing and assessing progress toward these goals. However, specifying the goals for specific adaptation actions \r\nis not straightforward because the impacts of climate change affect people and nature in many different ways requiring different adaptation \r\nactions. Thereby, goals that accompany these actions are diverse. Goals can relate to health, water or food security, jobs and employment, \r\npoverty eradication and social equity, biodiversity and ecosystem services at international, national and local levels."


id: 8d716afce3c110fa1445f00e8c4f651c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22069
content:
"While vital for international finance, coordination and assessment, the global goals set forth by these frameworks \r\nand conventions do not necessarily provide sufficient guidance to plan, implement or evaluate specific adaptation \r\nefforts at the community level. Specifying goals of adaptation is harder than setting goals for reducing emissions of \r\nclimate-warming GHG emissions. For instance, emission reduction effort is ultimately measured by the total amount \r\nof GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, adaptation aims to reduce risk and vulnerability from climate change \r\nand helps to enhance well-being in each individual community worldwide."


id: 6842af0749045e95e872bb5ece314ef3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15614
content:
"Climate impacts, such as stronger heat waves, longer droughts, more frequent floods, accelerating sea level rise and storm surges, are already \r\nbeing observed in some regions, and people around the world are increasingly perceiving changing climates, regarding these changes as \r\nsignificant and considering climate action as a matter of high urgency. Reducing climate risk to levels that avoid threatening private or social \r\nnorms and ensuring sustainable development will require immediate and long-term adaptation efforts by governments, business, civil society \r\nand individuals at a scale and speed significantly faster than the current trends."


id: 6b1c5001939260a44cf6c42fa201a017
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16138
content:
"Current observed climate impacts and expected future risks include stronger and longer heat waves, unprecedented \r\ndroughts and floods, accelerating sea level rise and storm surges affecting many geographies and communities. \r\nPeople around the world are increasingly perceiving changing climates, regarding these changes as significant and \r\nconsidering climate action as a matter of high urgency. In particular, marginalised and poor people, as well as island \r\nand coastal communities, experience relatively higher risks and vulnerability. The available evidence suggests that \r\ncurrent adaptation efforts may be insufficient to help ensure sustainable development and other societal goals in \r\nmany communities worldwide even under the most optimistic GHG emissions scenarios."


id: 3d9fff15cfae250169d93cec5903f371
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8009
content:
"Climate change adaptation is, therefore, urgent to the extent that meeting important societal goals requires \r\nimmediate and long-term action by governments, business, civil society and individuals at a scale and speed \r\nsignificantly faster than that represented by current trends."


id: f1de0e4e93b4cc0f68952f7b72294552
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39939
content:
"The success of climate change adaptation is dependent on the extent to which relevant actions reduce risk and vulnerability, as well as achieve \r\ntheir respective goals. At a global scale, these goals are set and tracked according to international frameworks and conventions. At smaller \r\nscales, such as local and national, goals are dependent on the specific impacts being managed, the actions being taken and the relevant scale. \r\nWhile success can take shape as uniquely as goals can, the degree to which an adaptation is feasible, effective and conforms to principles of \r\njustice represents important attributes for measuring success across actions. Adaptation responses that lead to increased risk and impacts are \r\nconsidered maladaptation."


id: d009ef3ab688c2743d1a7d5ded55281a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33956
content:
"Altogether, adaptation success is dependent on the extent to which adaptation actions achieve their respective \r\ngoals of reducing climate risk, increasing resilience and pursuing other climate-related societal goals. Viewed \r\nglobally, successful adaptation consists of actions anticipated to make significant contributions to meeting SDGs, \r\nsuch as ending extreme poverty, hunger and discrimination, and reduce risks to ecosystems, water, food systems, \r\nhuman settlements, and health and well-being. Viewed locally, successful adaptation consists of actions that help \r\ncommunities meet their diverse goals, including reducing anticipated current and future risks, enhancing capacity \r\nto adapt and transform, avoiding maladaptation, yielding benefits greater than costs and serving vulnerable \r\npopulations, and arising from an inclusive, evidence-based and equitable decision process."


id: 33adb1ad4b94706bea41097d7227ecbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6336
content:
"While success can be unique to an adaptation action, there are important attributes that constitute it as a successful \r\nsolution. These include the extent to which an action is considered feasible, effective and conforms to principles of \r\njustice."


id: fc672ee46537c9d464b7d926236a7430
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41771
content:
"action across members of society; procedural justice refers to ensuring the opportunity for fairness, transparency, \r\ninclusion and impartiality in the decision making of an action; and recognitional justice insists on recognising and \r\nincluding those who are or may be most affected by an action."


id: 64873ceef42b863faed7094b0315159f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14961
content:
"These attributes of adaptation success can be assessed throughout the adaptation process of planning, \r\nimplementation, Monitoring & Evaluation, adjustment and learning. However, at the same time, the success of \r\nmany adaptation actions depends strongly on context and time. For instance, the effectiveness of adaptation will \r\ndepend on the success of GHG mitigation efforts, as adaptation has strong synergies and trade-offs with mitigation \r\nefforts"


id: 2e68fd25d09374ddcfea99b2144b21ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5440
content:
"Continuing and expanding current adaptation efforts can reduce some climate risks. But even with emission reductions sufficient to meet the \r\nParis Agreement goals, transformational adaptation will be necessary."


id: ce176fad1dba52dca2bfa54420fa5bdb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33587
content:
"Over six assessment reports, the IPCC has documented transformative changes in the Earth's climate and ecosystems \r\ncaused by human actions. These changes are now unequivocal and projected to become even more significant in \r\nthe years and decades ahead. This AR6 report also highlights climate adaptation actions people are taking and can \r\ntake in response to these significant changes in the climate system."


id: 8b853c25fb8c09d2b1fda4735393396
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21710
content:
"Some adaptation is incremental, which only modifies existing systems. Other actions are transformational, \r\nleading to changes in the fundamental characteristics of a system. For instance, building a seawall to protect a \r\ncoastal community from flooding might exemplify incremental adaptation. Changing land use regulations in that \r\ncommunity and establishing a programme of managed retreat might exemplify transformational adaptation. \r\nThere is no definitive line between incremental and transformational adaptation. Some incremental actions stay \r\nincremental. Others may expand the future space of solutions. For instance, including climate risk in mortgages and \r\ninsurance might at first seem incremental but might lead to more transformational change over time."


id: 8ee5a4e073c297671c3c985f59112b06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22326
content:
"Transformation can be deliberate, envisioned and intended by at least some societal actors, or forced, arising \r\nwithout explicit intent."


id: 7cdb4b58096a9deb576243a47eb6682b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19161
content:
"Deliberate transformational adaptation is not without risks because change can disturb existing power relationships \r\nand can unfold in difficult to predict and unintended ways. But transformational adaptation is important to consider \r\nbecause it may be needed to avoid intolerable risks from climate change and to help meet development goals as \r\narticulated in the SDGs. In addition, some types of societal transformation may be inevitable and deliberate rather \r\nthan forced transformation and may bring society closer to its goals."


id: 4b45649be4033fa07867563c91e9610f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10490
content:
"Some types of transformation may be inevitable because the amount of transformational adaptation needed to \r\navoid intolerable risks depends in part on the level of GHG mitigation. Low concentration pathways consistent with \r\nParis Agreement goals require deliberate transformations that lead to significant and rapid change in energy, land, \r\nurban and infrastructure, and industrial systems. Even with low concentration pathways, some transformational \r\nadaptation will be necessary to limit intolerable risks. But with higher concentration pathways, more extensive \r\ntransformational adaptation would be required to limit (though not entirely avoid) intolerable risks. In such \r\ncircumstances, insufficient deliberate transformation could lead to undesirable forced transformations."


id: a9d86726d6f65dc02967bb107de0e05f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27104
content:
"Since IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, many new sources of knowledge have been employed to provide better understanding of climate change \r\nrisks, impacts, vulnerability and also societal responses through adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. This new, more integrative \r\nassessment focuses more on risk and solutions, social justice, different forms of knowledge including IK and LK, the role of transformation and \r\nthe urgency of fast climate actions."


id: c092c74c7d4fa1227797b566d17cd171
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31178
content:
"The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) has played a prominent role in science-policy-society interactions on the \r\nclimate issue since 1988 and has advanced in interdisciplinary climate change assessment since AR5. Many new \r\nsources of knowledge have been employed to provide better understanding of climate change risks, impacts, \r\nvulnerability and also societal responses through adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development."


id: 7300d76501e50f83230c0ec6ae2106e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17483
content:
"This AR6 assessment focuses more on risk and solutions. The risk framing for the first time spans all three Working \r\nGroups. It includes risks from the responses to climate change, considers dynamic and cascading consequences, \r\ndescribes with more geographic detail risks to people and ecosystems, and assesses such risks over a range of \r\nscenarios. The solutions framing encompasses the interconnections among climate responses, sustainable \r\ndevelopment and transformation, and the implications for governance across scales within the public and private \r\nsectors. The assessment therefore includes climate-related decision making and risk management, climate resilient \r\ndevelopment pathways, implementation and evaluation of adaptation, and also limits to adaptation and loss and \r\ndamage."


id: e18d8140a202c99050106187ba597120
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36954
content:
"The AR6 emphasises the emergent issue on social justice and different forms of knowledge. As climate change \r\nimpacts and responses are implemented, there is heightened awareness of the ways that climate responses \r\ninteract with issues of justice and social progress. In this report, there is expanded attention on inequity in climate \r\nvulnerability and responses, the role of power and participation in processes of implementation, unequal and \r\ndifferential impacts, and climate justice. The historic focus on scientific literature is also accompanied by increased \r\nconsideration and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and associated scholars."


id: aef255903b11a45e66427662012e84e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28022
content:
"The AR6 has a more extensive focus on the role of transformation and the urgency of fast climate actions in meeting \r\nsocietal goals. This report assesses extensive literatures with an increasing diversity of topics and geographical areas \r\nwith more sectoral and regional details. The literature also increasingly evaluates the lived experiences of climate \r\nchange--the physical changes underway, the impacts for people and ecosystems, the perceptions of the risks, and \r\nadaptation and mitigation responses planned and implemented."


id: 7e3a0c5040bef580aa249ddee7fe2fc0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19378
content:
"The assessment in AR6 is more integrative across multiple disciplines and combines experts across Working Groups, \r\nchapters, papers and disciplines, such as natural and social sciences, medical and health sciences, engineering, \r\nhumanities, law and business administration. The emphasis on knowledge for action has also included the role of \r\npublic communication, stories and narratives within assessment and associated outreach."


id: cd728787333d3a09a5abb17a8769bcbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33480
content:
"Coordinating Lead Authors: Camille Parmesan (France/USA/UK), Mike D. Morecroft (UK), \r\nYongyut Trisurat (Thailand)"


id: 39b51b2d963949d0911b874a139718a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7362
content:
"Parmesan, C., M.D. Morecroft, Y. Trisurat, R. Adrian, G.Z. Anshari, A. Arneth, Q. Gao, P. Gonzalez, R. Harris, J. Price, \r\nN. Stevens, and G.H. Talukdarr, 2022: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services. In: Climate Change \r\n2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the \r\nIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, \r\nA. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, V. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, \r\nUK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 197-377, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.004."


id: 94db1406a06561556294524eb9739857
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23396
content:
"by >2 weeks {2.3.3.4; Figure 2.4}. Changes in flow have led to reduced \r\nconnectivity in rivers (high confidence) {2.3.3.2; Figure  2.3}. Indirect \r\nchanges include alterations in river morphology, substrate composition, \r\noxygen concentrations and thermal regime in lakes (very high \r\nconfidence) {2.3.3.2; 2.3.3.3}. Dissolved oxygen concentrations have \r\ntypically declined and primary productivity has increased with warming. \r\nWarming and browning (increase in organic matter) have occurred in \r\nboreal freshwaters, with both positive and negative repercussions on \r\nwater temperature profiles (lower vs. upper water) (high confidence) \r\nand primary productivity (medium confidence) as well as reduced water \r\nquality (high confidence) {2.4.4.1; Figure 2.5}."


id: 36b4a451ff2b4a97711945d8e70df582
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6852
content:
"Chapter 2, building on prior assessments1, provides a global \r\nassessment of the observed impacts and projected risks of climate \r\nchange to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including their \r\ncomponent species and the services they provide to people. Where \r\npossible, differences among regions, taxonomic groups and ecosystem \r\ntypes are presented. Adaptation options to reduce risks to ecosystems \r\nand people are assessed."


id: 12a0ca337681989f2ad47a1498a127d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 480
content:
"Multiple lines of evidence, combined with the strong and \r\nconsistent trends observed on every continent, make it very \r\nlikely2 that many observed changes in the ranges, phenology, \r\nphysiology and morphology of terrestrial and freshwater \r\nspecies can be attributed to regional and global climate changes, \r\nparticularly increases in the frequency and severity of extreme \r\nevents (very high confidence3\r\n) {2.3.1; 2.3.3.5; 2.4.2; 2.4.5; Table 2.2; \r\nTable 2.3; Table SM2.1; Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter}.\r\nThe most severe impacts are occurring in the most vulnerable species \r\nand ecosystems, characterised by inherent physiological, ecological or \r\nbehavioural traits that limit their abilities to adapt, as well as those \r\nmost exposed to climatic hazards (high confidence) {2.4.2.2; 2.4.2.6; \r\n2.4.2.8; 2.4.5; 2.6.1; Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter}."


id: 65d3133933d97f768f1a610fb83e9896
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15174
content:
"Climate change has increased wildlife diseases (high \r\nconfidence). Experimental studies provide high confidence in the \r\nattribution of observed increased disease severity, outbreak frequency \r\nand the emergence of novel vectors and their diseases into new areas \r\nto recent trends in climate and extreme events. Many vector-borne \r\ndiseases and those caused by ticks, helminth worms and the chytrid \r\nfungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) have shifted polewards \r\nand upwards and are emerging in new regions (high confidence). In \r\nthe high Arctic and at high elevations in Nepal, there is high confidence\r\nthat climate change has driven the expansion of vector-borne diseases \r\n(VBDs) that infect humans. {2.4.2.7, 7.2.2.1, 9.8.2.4, 10.4.7.1, 12.3.1.4, \r\n13.7.1.2, 14.4.6.4; Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in this chapter}"


id: 92f3b95952dfd920e5718c1425aae453
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23067
content:
"Forest insect pests have expanded northward, and the severity \r\nand extent of outbreaks have increased in northern North \r\nAmerica and northern Eurasia due to warmer winters reducing \r\ninsect mortality and longer growing seasons favouring more \r\ngenerations per year (high confidence) {2.4.2.1; 2.4.4.3.3}."


id: ee716f2f648e20c80440764312128a39
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39325
content:
"New studies since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and \r\nthe Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5degC (SR1.5) (with \r\ndata for >12,000 species globally) show changes consistent \r\nwith climate change. Where attribution was assessed (>4,000 \r\nspecies globally), approximately half of the species had shifted \r\ntheir ranges to higher latitudes or elevations and two-thirds of \r\nspring phenological events had advanced, driven by regional \r\nclimate changes (very high confidence). Shifts in species ranges \r\nare altering community make-up, with exotic species exhibiting a \r\ngreater ability to adapt to climate change than natives, especially in \r\nmore northern latitudes, potentially leading to new invasive species \r\n(medium confidence) {2.4.2.3.3; 2.4.2.7}. New analyses demonstrate \r\nthat prior reports underestimated impacts due to the complexity of \r\nbiological responses to climate change (high confidence). {2.4.2.1; \r\n2.4.2.3; 2.4.2.4; 2.4.2.5; 2.4.5; Table 2.2; Table SM2.1; Table 2.3}"


id: 93554b585baae6eee0f6e84a592e4e56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23126
content:
"Local population extinctions caused by climate change have \r\nbeen widespread among plants and animals, detected in 47% \r\nof 976 species examined and associated with increases in the \r\nhottest yearly temperatures (very high confidence) {2.4.2.2}.\r\nClimate-driven population extinctions have been higher in tropical \r\n(55%) than in temperate (39%) regions, higher in freshwater (74%) \r\nthan in marine (51%) or terrestrial (46%) habitats, and higher in \r\nanimals (50%) than in plants (39%). Extreme heat waves have led to \r\nlocal fish dying out in lakes and mass mortality events in birds, bats, \r\nmammals and fish {2.3.3.5, 2.4.2.7.2, Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES \r\nin this chapter}. Intensification of droughts contributes to the \r\ndisappearance of small or ephemeral ponds that often harbour rare \r\nand endemic species. {2.4.2.2; Cross-Chapter Box  EXTREMES in this \r\nchapter}"


id: 50bb859942257a885686d2535f4b92b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11476
content:
"Responses of freshwater species are strongly related to changes \r\nin the physical environment (high confidence){2.3.3; 2.4.2.3.2}. \r\nGlobal coverage of quantitative observations in freshwater ecosystems \r\nhas increased since AR5. Water temperature has increased in rivers \r\n(up to 1degC per decade) and lakes (up to 0.45degC per decade) {2.3.3.1; \r\nFigure 2.2}. The extent of ice cover has declined by 25% and duration "


id: 94eb4377ee7d5e9d1fe5c8d2bf2fe09b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23405
content:
"ate and boreal ecosystems around the world (high confidence), \r\ndamaging key aspects of ecological integrity. This degrades the \r\nsurvival of vegetation, habitat for biodiversity, water supplies, carbon \r\nsequestration, and other key aspects of the integrity of ecosystems and \r\ntheir ability to provide services for people (high confidence). {2.4.3.1; \r\n2.4.4.2; 2.4.4.3; 2.4.4.4; Table 2.3; Table SM2.1}"


id: 25bdbfbc1006658a84423589e5e66e77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3825
content:
"cloud forest-restricted golden toad (Incilius periglenes) was extinct by \r\n1990 in a nature preserve in Costa Rica following successive extreme \r\ndroughts (medium confidence). The white sub-species of the lemuroid \r\nringtail possum (Hemibelideus lemuroides) in Queensland, Australia, \r\ndisappeared after heat waves in 2005 (high confidence): intensive \r\ncensuses found only 2 individuals in 2009. The Bramble Cay melomys \r\n(BC melomys, Melomys rubicola) was not seen after 2009 and was \r\ndeclared extinct in 2016, with sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm \r\nsurge associated with climate change being the most probable drivers \r\n(high confidence). Additionally, the interaction of climate change and \r\nchytrid fungus (Bd) has driven many of the observed global declines \r\nin amphibian populations and the extinction of many species (high \r\nconfidence) {2.4.2.7.1}."


id: 2d91bb7f67d726e37cde96b10a7cd910
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5310
content:
"A growing number of studies have documented genetic evolution \r\nwithin populations in response to recent climate change (very high \r\nconfidence). To date, genetic changes remain within the limits of \r\nknown variation for species (high confidence). Controlled selection \r\nexperiments and field observations indicate that evolution \r\nwould not prevent a species becoming extinct if its climate \r\nspace disappears globally (high confidence). Climate hazards \r\noutside of those to which species have adapted are occurring on all \r\ncontinents (high confidence). More frequent and intense extreme \r\nevents, superimposed on longer-term climate trends, have pushed \r\nsensitive species and ecosystems towards tipping points that are \r\nbeyond the ecological and evolutionary capacity to adapt, causing \r\nabrupt and possibly irreversible changes (medium confidence). \r\n{2.3.1; 2.3.3; 2.4.2.6; 2.4.2.8; 2.6.1; Cross-Chapter Boxes ILLNESS and \r\nEXTREMES in this chapter}"


id: 29a8734dbd610a1cff45f35406ae89ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4556
content:
"Drought-induced tree mortality attributed to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change has caused up to 20% loss of trees in the period \r\n1945-2007 in three regions in Africa and North America (high \r\nconfidence). It has also potentially contributed to over 100 other \r\ncases of drought-induced tree mortality across Africa, Asia, Australia, \r\nEurope, and North and South America (high confidence). Field \r\nobservations have documented post-mortality vegetation shifts (high \r\nconfidence). Timber cutting, agricultural expansion, air pollution and \r\nother non-climate factors also contribute to tree death. Increases in \r\nforest insect pests driven by climate change have contributed to tree \r\nmortality and shifts in carbon dynamics in many temperate and boreal \r\nforest areas (very high confidence). The direction of changes in carbon \r\nbalance and wildfires following insect outbreaks depends on the local \r\nforest insect communities (medium confidence). {2.4.4.3; Table  2.3; \r\nTable SM2.1}"


id: b0b7ad1412611cb22a1fcd7417702e44
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28319
content:
"Terrestrial ecosystems currently remove more carbon from \r\nthe atmosphere, 2.5-4.3 Gt yr-1, than they emit (+1.6 +- \r\n0.7 Gt y-1), and so are currently a net sink of -1.9 +- 1.1 Gt y-1. \r\nIntact tropical rainforests, Arctic permafrost, peatlands and \r\nother healthy high-carbon ecosystems provide a vital global \r\necosystem service of preventing the release of stored carbon \r\n(high confidence). Terrestrial ecosystems contain stocks of ~3500 \r\nGtC in vegetation, permafrost, and soils, three to five times the amount \r\nof carbon in unextracted fossil fuels (high confidence) and >4 times the \r\ncarbon currently in the atmosphere (high confidence). Tropical forests \r\nand Arctic permafrost contain the highest ecosystem carbon stocks in \r\naboveground vegetation and in soil, respectively, in the world (high "


id: d63810ef897357c211059b93c53d3c34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35006
content:
"confidence). Deforestation, draining, burning or drying of peatlands, \r\nand thawing of Arctic permafrost, due to climate change, has already \r\nshifted some areas of these ecosystems from carbon sinks to carbon \r\nsources (high confidence). {2.4.3.6; 2.4.3.8; 2.4.3.9; 2.4.4.4}"


id: 8388c322965f77f9a0e5e5ec0505a948
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20282
content:
"Evidence indicates that climate change is affecting many spe\u0002cies, ecosystems and ecological processes that provide eco\u0002system services connected to human health, livelihoods, and \r\nwell-being (medium confidence). These services include climate \r\nregulation, water and food provisioning, pollination of crops, tourism \r\nand recreation. It is difficult to establish full end-to-end attribution \r\nfrom climatic changes to changes in a given ecosystem service and \r\nto identify the location and timing of impacts. The lack of attribution \r\nstudies may delay specific adaptation planning, but there is evidence \r\nthat protection and restoration of ecosystems builds resilience of ser\u0002vice provision. {2.2; 2.3; 2.4.2.7; 2.4.4; 2.4.5; 2.5.3; 2.5.4; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; \r\n2.6.5; 2.6.6; 2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Boxes NATURAL, ILLNESS and EX\u0002TREMES in this chapter; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7; Cross\u0002Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5; Box 5.3; section 5.4.3.4}"


id: e3691dd1ef4b0d30732c760cff546af4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37306
content:
"Climate change increases risks of biome shifts on up to 35% \r\nof global land at >=4degC GSAT warming, that emission reductions \r\ncould limit to <15% for <2degC warming (medium confidence). \r\nUnder high-warming scenarios, models indicate shifts \r\nof extensive parts of the Amazon rainforest to drier and lower\u0002biomass vegetation (medium  confidence), poleward shifts of \r\nboreal forest into treeless tundra across the Arctic, and upslope \r\nshifts of montane forests into alpine grassland (high confidence).\r\nArea at high risk of biome shifts from changes in climate and land use \r\ncombined can double or triple compared to climate change alone \r\n(medium confidence). Novel ecosystems, with no historical analogue, \r\nare expected to become increasingly common in the future (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.3, 2.4.2.3.3, 2.5.2; 2.5.4, Figure  2.11; Table  2.5; \r\nTable SM2.4; Table SM2.5}"


id: ff491923138dc12c415b24c9249c215e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42322
content:
"Climate change increases risks to fundamental aspects of ter\u0002restrial and freshwater ecosystems, with the potential for spe\u0002cies' extinctions to reach 60% at 5degC global mean surface air \r\ntemperature (GSAT) warming (high confidence), biome shifts \r\n(changes in the major vegetation form of an ecosystem) on \r\n15% (at 2degC warming) to 35% (at 4degC warming) of global land \r\n(medium confidence), and increases in the area burned by wild\u0002fire of 35% (at 2degC warming) to 40% (at 4degC warming) of glob\u0002al land (medium confidence). {2.5.1; 2.5.2; 2.5.3; 2.5.4; Figure 2.6; \r\nFigure 2.7; Figure 2.8; Figure 2.9; Figure 2.11; Table 2.5; Table SM2.2; \r\nTableSM2.5; Cross-Chapter Box  DEEP in Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 1}"


id: 36d85a1ebdf6d93b28b472012d47fa88
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6878
content:
"The risk of wildfire increases along with an increase in global \r\ntemperatures (high confidence). With 4degC GSAT warming by \r\n2100, wildfire frequency is projected to have a net increase of \r\n~30% (medium confidence). Increased wildfire, combined with soil \r\nerosion due to deforestation, could degrade water supplies (medium \r\nconfidence). For ecosystems with an historically low frequency of fires, \r\na projected 4degC global temperature rise increases the risk of fires, with \r\npotential increases in tree mortality and the conversion of extensive \r\nparts of the Amazon rainforest to drier and lower-biomass vegetation \r\n(medium confidence). {2.5.3.2; 2.5.3.3}"


id: 48dde41551294f0d0165d7f2aea1b7c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10032
content:
"Continued climate change substantially increases the risk \r\nof carbon stored in the biosphere being released into the \r\natmosphere due to increases in processes such as wildfire, tree \r\nmortality, insect pest outbreaks, peatland drying and permafrost \r\nthaw (high confidence). These phenomena exacerbate self-reinforcing \r\nfeedbacks between emissions from high-carbon ecosystems (that \r\ncurrently store ~3000-4000 GtC) and increasing global temperatures. \r\nComplex interactions of climate change, land use change (LUC), carbon \r\ndioxide fluxes and vegetation changes, combined with insect outbreaks \r\nand other disturbances, will regulate the future carbon balance of the \r\nbiosphere. These processes are incompletely represented in current earth \r\nsystem models (ESMs). The exact timing and magnitude of climate-\r\nbiosphere feedbacks and potential tipping points of carbon loss are \r\ncharacterised by large uncertainty, but studies of feedbacks indicate "


id: c3a4eb7e4f384f45bf3e031351593517
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31694
content:
"of micro-climate or hydrology, adjustment of site management plans \r\nand facilitating the dispersal of vulnerable species to new locations by \r\nincreasing habitat connectivity and by active translocation of species. \r\nAdaptation can reduce risks but cannot prevent all damaging impacts \r\nso is not a substitute for reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions \r\n(high confidence). {2.2; 2.3; 2.3.1; 2.3.2; 2.4.5; 2.5.1.3; 2.5.1.4; 2.5.2; \r\n2.5.3.1; 2.5.3.5; 2.5.4; 2.6.1; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; 2.6.5; 2.6.6; 2.6.8; \r\nCross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter}"


id: ac1b777b04932ba41a1b30a52de1ca82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27518
content:
"that increased ecosystem carbon losses can cause large temperature \r\nincreases in the future (medium confidence). (section 5.4, Figure 5.29 \r\nand Table  5.4 in (Canadell et  al., 2021)), {2.5.2.7; 2.5.2.8; 2.5.2.9; \r\n2.5.3.2; 2.5.3.3; 2.5.3.4; 2.5.3.5; Figure  2.10; Figure  2.11; Table  2.4; \r\nTable 2.5; Table SM2.2 Table SM2.5}"


id: 5c2aea526c8cd67d7c310291463527de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13470
content:
"The resilience of biodiversity and ecosystem services to climate \r\nchange can be increased by human adaptation actions including \r\necosystem protection and restoration (high confidence).\r\nEcological theory and observations show that a wide range of actions \r\ncan reduce risks to species and ecosystem integrity. This includes \r\nminimising additional stresses or disturbances; reducing fragmentation; \r\nincreasing natural habitat extent, connectivity and heterogeneity; \r\nmaintaining taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity and \r\nredundancy; and protecting small-scale refugia where micro-climate \r\nconditions can allow species to persist (high confidence). Adaptation \r\nalso includes actions to aid the recovery of ecosystems following \r\nextreme events. Understanding the characteristics of vulnerable \r\nspecies can assist in early warning systems to minimise negative \r\nimpacts and inform management intervention. {2.3; Figure 2.1; 2.5.3.1, \r\n2.6.2, Table 2.6, 2.6.5, 2.6.7, 2.6.8}"


id: eda8c4eb285bd6a829cd96d1732d8f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39172
content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can deliver climate change \r\nadaptation for people, with multiple additional benefits \r\nincluding those for biodiversity (high confidence). An increasing \r\nbody of evidence demonstrates that climatic risks to people including \r\nfloods, drought, fire and overheating, can be lowered by a range of \r\nEbA techniques in urban and rural areas (medium confidence). EbA \r\nforms part of a wider range of nature-based solutions (NbS); some \r\nhave mitigation co-benefits, including the protection and restoration \r\nof forests and other high-carbon ecosystems as well as agro-ecological \r\nfarming (AF) practices. However, EbA and other NbS are still not widely \r\nimplemented. {2.2; 2.5.3.1; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; 2.6.5; 2.6.6, 2.6.7; \r\nTable 2.7; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter; Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 1}"


id: 6edb72a310a2f1ac59161a5ea2fafcfe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16774
content:
"To realise potential benefits and avoid harm, it is essential that \r\nEbA is deployed in the right places and with the right approaches \r\nfor that area, with inclusive governance (high confidence). \r\nInterdisciplinary scientific information and practical expertise, including \r\nIndigenous and local knowledge (IKLK), are essential to effectiveness \r\n(high confidence). There is a large risk of maladaptation where this does \r\nnot happen (high confidence). {1.4.2; 2.2; 2.6; Table 2.7; Box 2.2; Figure \r\nBox 2.2.1; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter; Cross-Chapter \r\nPaper 1; 5.14.2}"


id: d1725f2058c53eab9ffe30c4dc1615fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34202
content:
"EbA and other NbS are themselves vulnerable to climate change \r\nimpacts (high confidence). They need to take account of climate \r\nchange if they are to remain effective and they will be increasingly \r\nunder threat at higher warming levels. NbS cannot be regarded as an \r\nalternative to, or a reason to delay, deep cuts in GHG emissions. (high \r\nconfidence) {2.6.3, 2.6.5; 2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this \r\nchapter}"


id: 931ab7f8b37f96a22c8ac33eb07bf9c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23086
content:
"Since AR5, many adaptation plans and strategies have been \r\ndeveloped to protect ecosystems and biodiversity, but there is \r\nlimited evidence of the extent to which adaptation is taking place \r\nand virtually no evaluation of the effectiveness of adaptation \r\nmeasures in the scientific literature (medium confidence). This \r\nis an important evidence gap that needs to be addressed, to ensure a \r\nbaseline is available against which to judge effectiveness and develop \r\nand refine adaptation in future. Many proposed adaptation measures \r\nhave not been implemented (low confidence). {2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.4; \r\n2.6.5; 2.6.6; 2.6.8; 2.7}"


id: bf132b6b4a899b170bb8f841bf4e3761
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30890
content:
"Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural ecosystems \r\nare key adaptation measures in view of the clear evidence that \r\ndamage and degradation of ecosystems exacerbates the impacts \r\nof climate change on biodiversity and people (high confidence). \r\nEcosystem services that are under threat from a combination of climate \r\nchange and other anthropogenic pressures include climate change \r\nmitigation, flood risk management, food provisioning and water supply \r\n(high confidence). Adaptation strategies that treat climate, biodiversity \r\nand human society as coupled systems will be most effective. {2.3; \r\nFigure 2.1; 2.5.4; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Boxes NATURAL and \r\nILLNESS in this chapter}"


id: e3ea342bd0e91d5c76a63e33b24cffe5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37385
content:
"Ecosystem restoration and resilience building cannot prevent \r\nall impacts of climate change, and adaptation planning \r\nneeds to manage inevitable changes to species distributions, \r\necosystem structure and processes (very high confidence). \r\nActions to manage inevitable change include the local modification "


id: 7920c23759cc0d7ecc4368d4060d736a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18499
content:
"and ecosystem services (high confidence). Climate change places \r\nadditional stress on ecosystem integrity and functioning, adding \r\nurgency to taking action. Low-intensity sustainable management, \r\nincluding that performed by Indigenous Peoples, is an integral part \r\nof some protected areas, and can support effective adaptation and \r\nmaintain ecosystem health. Food and fibre production in other areas \r\nwill need to be efficient, sustainable and adapted to climate change to \r\nmeet the needs of the human population. (high confidence) {Figure 2.1; \r\n2.5.4; 2.6.2; 2.6.3; 2.6.7}"


id: ac32d25c3125f683a67f143384ae899c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27542
content:
"Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and species are often less \r\ndegraded on land managed by Indigenous Peoples and local \r\ncommunities than on other land (medium confidence). Involving \r\nindigenous and local institutions is a key element for developing \r\nsuccessful adaptation strategies. IKLK includes a wide variety of \r\nresource-use practices and ecosystem stewardship strategies that \r\nconserve and enhance both wild and domestic biodiversity. {2.6.5; \r\n2.6.7; Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this chapter; Chapter 15; \r\nBox 18.6; CCP2.4.1; CCP2.4.3; Box CCP7.1}"


id: 168d8ea40cf63523a07c5d7b3fe99d6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1180
content:
"Increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events, \r\nthat WGI has attributed to human greenhouse gas emissions, \r\nare compressing the timeline available for natural systems to \r\nadapt and also impeding our ability to identify, develop and \r\nimplement solutions (medium confidence). There is now an \r\nurgent need to build resilience and assist recovery following extreme \r\nevents. This, combined with long-term changes in baseline conditions, \r\nmeans that implementing adaptation and mitigation measures cannot \r\nbe delayed if these are to be fully effective. {2.3; Cross-Chapter \r\nBox EXTREMES in this chapter}"


id: 928707134cdd9d270072993f32775ec9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23001
content:
"expected to become increasingly important as drivers of change over \r\nthe coming decades (Ciais et al., 2013; Settele et al., 2014; IPBES, 2019; \r\nIPCC, 2019c)."


id: 3e7172f012528d30b27da0a1ceda043c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8167
content:
"The Working Group II Summary for Policymakers of the AR5 stated that \r\n'many terrestrial and freshwater species have shifted their geographic \r\nranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and \r\nspecies interactions in response to ongoing climate change' (IPCC, \r\n2014d). Based on long-term observed changes across the regions, \r\nit was estimated that approximately 20-30% of plant and animal \r\nspecies are at risk of extinction when global mean temperatures rise \r\n2-3degC above pre-industrial levels (Fischlin et  al., 2007). In addition, \r\nthe WGII AR5 Synthesis Report (IPCC, 2014e) broadly suggested that \r\nautonomous adaptation by ecosystems and wild species might occur, \r\nand proposed human-assisted adaptations to minimise negative \r\nclimate change impacts."


id: 5bf222c57f833940713fba0699a41fb6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13440
content:
"Assessment of the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems \r\nhas been limited in previous assessments, and inter-linkages between \r\nterrestrial and freshwater processes have not been fully explored \r\n(Settele et al., 2014; IPBES, 2019). Improved treatment of impacts on \r\nterrestrial and freshwater systems is critical, considering the revisions of \r\ninternational sustainability goals and targets, especially the conclusion \r\nthat many of the proposed post-2020 targets of the CBD cannot be met \r\ndue to climate change impacts (Arneth et al., 2020)."


id: 3b4c4103d89767f3881e76b7934173bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7618
content:
"Risk assessments for species, communities, key ecosystems and their \r\nservices were based on the risk assessment framework introduced \r\nin the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014b). Assessments of observed changes in \r\nbiological systems emphasise detecting and attributing the impacts of \r\nclimate change on ecological and evolutionary processes, particularly \r\nfreshwater ecosystems, and ecosystem processes such as wildfires, that \r\nwere superficially assessed in previous reports. Where appropriate, \r\nassessment of interactions between climate change and other human \r\nactivities is provided."


id: 6ecf982b6c35face952cfa04b97e6206
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16765
content:
"Land use and land cover change (LULCC) as well as the unsustainable \r\nexploitation of resources in terrestrial and freshwater systems continue \r\nto be major factors contributing to the loss of natural ecosystems and \r\nbiodiversity (high confidence). Fertiliser input, pollution of waterways, \r\ndam construction and the extraction of freshwater for irrigation put \r\nadditional pressure on biodiversity and alter ecosystem function (Shin \r\net al., 2019). Likewise, for biodiversity, invasive alien species have been \r\nidentified as a major threat, especially in freshwater systems, on islands \r\nand in coastal regions (high confidence) (IPBES, 2018b; IPBES, 2018e; \r\nIPBES, 2018c; IPBES, 2018d; IPBES, 2019). Climate change and CO2 are "


id: 220d9fee20e76a22753730e08c5d16dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3216
content:
"services such as food and water; regulating services such as regulation \r\nof floods, drought, land degradation, and disease; supporting services \r\nsuch as soil formation and nutrient cycling; and cultural services such \r\nas recreational, spiritual, religious, and other nonmaterial benefits' \r\n(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)."


id: bfb78049f5f89a880d9801a429c71316
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31012
content:
"For biological systems, we use the framework for detection and \r\nattribution outlined in AR5, in which biological changes observed \r\nare not attributed to global but rather to local or regional climate \r\nchanges (Parmesan et al., 2013; Cramer et al., 2014). However, global \r\ndistribution of regional responses is desirable to achieve generality, and \r\ndata in prior reports were concentrated from the Northern Hemisphere. \r\nThe critique of 'global' studies by (Feeley et al., 2017) argues that their \r\nnaming is misleading, that most of them are far from global, and that \r\na considerable geographic and taxonomic bias remains. This bias is \r\ndiminishing, as regional data from the Southern Hemisphere is added \r\nand there is now representation from every continent."


id: 35c143337f6ae8c45220b4aa149ef1c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6711
content:
"The IPBES renamed the concept 'nature's contributions to people' \r\nand broadened the definition to 'the contributions, both positive and \r\nnegative, of living nature (i.e., diversity of organisms, ecosystems, \r\nand their associated ecological and evolutionary processes) to the \r\nquality of life for people. Beneficial contributions from nature include \r\nsuch things as food provision, water purification, flood control, and \r\nartistic inspiration, whereas detrimental contributions include disease \r\ntransmission and predation that damages people or their assets' \r\n(IPBES, 2019). The concept was modified to include more social \r\nviewpoints and broaden the analyses beyond narrow economic \r\nstock-and-flow valuation approaches (Diaz et  al., 2018). IPBES \r\ndeveloped a classification of 18 categories of ecosystem services (see \r\nTable 2.1)."


id: cd4f1a80e1a28b201cf2078417dff4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33461
content:
"For ecosystem services that do not have published scientific \r\ninformation to establish unambiguous links to climate change, the \r\nclimate-species-ecosystem links are assessed. Global ecological \r\nassessments, including the Global Biodiversity Assessment (Heywood \r\net  al., 1995), the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Millennium \r\nEcosystem Assessment, 2005), and the IPBES Global Assessment \r\nReport (IPBES, 2019) have synthesised scientific information on the \r\necosystem-ecosystem services link, but a full assessment from climate \r\nchange to ecosystem services is often impeded by limited quantitative \r\nstudies that span this entire spectrum (see (Mengist et al., 2020) for a \r\nreview of this gap in montane regions)."


id: 2dde885eefe4c1746e3a710f999d100a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5349
content:
"IPCC and IPBES are collaborating to address gaps in the knowledge \r\nabout the effects of climate change on ecosystem services (Portner \r\net  al., 2021). Table  2.1 provides a guide for finding information on \r\nclimate change and individual ecosystem services in the AR6."


id: b13021f2933d730bd103fb6f372e5e54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28403
content:
"Ecosystems provide services essential for human survival and well-being. \r\nThe Millennium Ecosystem Assessment defined ecosystem services as \r\n'the benefits people obtain from ecosystems' including 'provisioning "


id: 8346c2d48b099c300eefdaecd4b80a95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20221
content:
"tipping points, beyond which abrupt and possibly irreversible changes \r\nare occurring (Harris et al., 2018a; Jones et al., 2018; Hoffmann et al., \r\n2019b; Prober et al., 2019; Berdugo et al., 2020; Bergstrom et al., 2021). \r\nIncreases in the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts and \r\naridity, floods, fires and extreme storms have been observed in many \r\nregions (Seneviratne et al., 2012; Ummenhofer and Meehl, 2017), and \r\nthese trends are projected to continue (high confidence) (Section 3.2.2.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box  EXTREMES this Chapter) (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., \r\n2018; Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: c704155031ce33cf42e7428151406f60
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32325
content:
"In AR6, Working Group I (IPCC, 2021a) describes changes in physical \r\nclimate systems using the term 'climatic impact-drivers' (CIDs), which \r\ncan have detrimental, beneficial or neutral effects on a system. In \r\ncontrast, the literature on natural systems tends to focus on hazards, \r\nwhich include natural or human-induced physical events, impacts, or \r\ntrends with the potential to cause negative effects on ecosystems and \r\nenvironmental resources. Hazards are affected by current and future \r\nchanges in climate, including altered climate variability and extreme \r\nevents (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). Hazards can occur suddenly (e.g., a heat \r\nwave or heavy rain event), or more slowly (e.g., land loss, degradation \r\nand erosion linked to multiple climate hazards compounding). Observed \r\nexposure and risks to protected areas are assessed in Section 2.5.3.1.1. \r\nSee also Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter."


id: d25aab0d401ca49c83507af8e18c385a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34361
content:
"Non-climatic hazards such as LUC, habitat fragmentation, pollution and \r\ninvasive species have been the primary drivers of change in terrestrial \r\nand freshwater ecosystems in the past (high confidence) (Figure 2.1). \r\nThese impacts have been extensively documented in reports by \r\nthe IPBES (2021). However, while climate change has not been the \r\npredominant influence to date, its relative impact is increasing (IPCC \r\nSRCCL), with greater interactive effects of non-climate and climate \r\nhazards now occurring (Birk et al., 2020)."


id: 2cb9bb2edb96e209d7eb70cad2656cec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5132
content:
"The major climate hazards at the global level are generally well \r\nunderstood (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021) (WGI AR6 Interactive Atlas). \r\nIncreased temperatures and changes to rainfall and runoff patterns; \r\ngreater variability in temperature, rainfall, river flow and water levels; \r\nand rising sea levels and the increased frequency of extreme events \r\nmeans that greater areas of the world are being exposed to climate \r\nhazards outside of those to which they are adapted (high confidence) \r\n(Lange et al., 2020)."


id: a9d2c6b78f343c7d8c98f8e7289e4355
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27101
content:
"Understanding impacts associated with the rapid rate of climate \r\nchange is less developed and more uncertain than changes in mean \r\nclimate. High climate velocity (Loarie et al., 2009) is expected to be \r\nassociated with distribution shifts, incomplete range filling and species \r\nextinctions (high confidence) (Sandel et al., 2011; Burrows et al., 2014), \r\nalthough not all species are equally at risk from high velocity (see \r\nSections 2.4.2.2, 2.5.1.3). It is generally assumed that the more rapid \r\nthe rate of change, the greater the impact on species and ecosystems, \r\nbut responses are taxonomically and geographically variable (high \r\nconfidence) (Kling et al., 2020)."


id: 4bca09b66eebcd8046f36b1b79b9a23b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10596
content:
"(b) Long-term change estimates (% of pixel area at 1.5deg resolution), with pixels showing a statistically significant trend (n = 35 years, two-sided Mann-Kendall test, P < 0.05) \r\nin TC, SV or BG. The dominant changes are TC gain with SV loss; BG gain with SV loss; TC gain with BG loss; BG gain with TC loss; SV gain with BG loss; and SV gain with TC loss. \r\nGrey indicates areas with no significant change between 1982 and 2016."


id: a5e7fa329ed1092dcdbe9b0b329a15ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26412
content:
"decade (Woolway and Maberly, 2020). Although the dispersal of the \r\naerial adult stage of some aquatic insects can surpass these climate \r\nvelocities, rates of change under mid- and high-emission scenarios \r\n(RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) are substantially higher than the known \r\nrates of the active dispersal of many species (Woolway and Maberly, \r\n2020). Many species, both terrestrial and freshwater, are not expected \r\nto be able to disperse fast enough to track suitable climates under mid\u0002and high-emission scenarios (medium confidence) (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, \r\nRCP8.5; (Brito-Morales et al., 2018)."


id: 573f49cf0bc6d9eb7311f01163a3ae54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12605
content:
"Understanding of the large-scale drivers and the local-to-regional \r\nfeedback processes that lead to extreme events is still limited, and \r\nprojections of extremes and coincident or compounding events remain \r\nuncertain (Prudhomme et al., 2014; Sillmann et al., 2017; Hao et al., 2018; \r\nMiralles et al., 2019). Extreme events are challenging to model because \r\nthey are, by definition, rare, and often occur at spatial and temporal scales \r\nmuch finer than the resolution of climate models (Sillmann et al., 2017; \r\nZscheischler et al., 2018). Additionally, the processes that cause extreme \r\nevents often interact, as is the case for drought and heat events, and they \r\nare spatially and temporally dependent, for example, soil moisture and \r\ntemperature (Vogel et al., 2017). Understanding feedbacks between land "


id: ea5bd9e11fe7c1cd5ad3f3977f88f815
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38589
content:
"in lakes and rivers in regions with cold winters (O'Reilly et al., 2015) \r\ncan, in part, be attributed to the amplified warming in polar and \r\nhigh-latitude regions (robust evidence, high agreement) (Screen and \r\nSimmonds, 2010; Stuecker et al., 2018)."


id: de1ea7a8d85c96d453616a4803d4ba71
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36339
content:
"and atmosphere also remains limited. For example, positive feedbacks \r\nbetween soil and vegetation, or between evaporation, radiation and \r\nprecipitation, are important in the preconditioning of extreme events \r\nsuch as heat waves and droughts, and can increase the severity and \r\nimpact of such events (Miralles et al., 2019)."


id: 6024ea34aec871da8f0e20e4e80fbb7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14220
content:
"Shifts in thermal regime: Since AR5, the trend that lake waters mix \r\nless frequently continues (Butcher et  al., 2015; Adrian et  al., 2016; \r\nRichardson et  al., 2017; Woolway et  al., 2017). This results from \r\ngreater warming of surface temperatures relative to deep-water \r\ntemperatures, and the loss of ice during winter which prevents inverse \r\nthermal stratification in north temperate lakes (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Adrian et  al., 2009; Winslow et  al., 2015; Adrian et  al., \r\n2016; Schwefel et al., 2016; Richardson et al., 2017)."


id: ea1f542afe0c6897379480d9139b122b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38542
content:
"Oxygen availability: increased water temperature and reduced mixing \r\ncause a decrease in dissolved oxygen. In 400 lakes, dissolved oxygen \r\nin surface and deep waters declined by 4.1 and 16.8%, respectively, \r\nbetween 1980 and 2017 (Jane et al., 2021). The deepest water layers \r\nare expected to experience an increase in hypoxic conditions by >25% \r\ndue to fewer complete mixing events, with strong repercussions for \r\nnutrient dynamics and the loss of thermal habitat (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Straile et  al., 2010; Zhang et  al., 2015; Schwefel \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 8212cc3c640835019879cd4603a5079b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20004
content:
"Depending on how the intensification of the global water cycle affects \r\nindividual lake water budgets, the amount of water stored in specific \r\nlakes may increase, decrease or have no substantial cumulative effect \r\n(Notaro et  al., 2015; Pekel et  al., 2016; Rodell et  al., 2018; Busker \r\net  al., 2019; Woolway et  al., 2020b). The magnitude of hydrological \r\nchanges that can be assuredly attributed to climate change remains \r\nuncertain (Hegerl et al., 2015; Gronewold and Rood, 2019; Kraemer \r\net  al., 2020). Attribution of water storage variation in lakes due to \r\nclimate change is facilitated when such variations occur coherently \r\nacross broad geographic regions and long time scales, preferably \r\nabsent of other anthropogenic hydrological influences (Watras et al., \r\n2014; Kraemer et al., 2020). There is increasing awareness that climate \r\nchange contributes to the loss of small temporary ponds which cover a \r\ngreater global area than lakes (Bagella et al., 2016)."


id: abf6bb59ce4992e43572b89c1ab190a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27494
content:
"Physical changes are fundamental drivers of change at all levels of \r\nbiological organisation, from individual species, to communities, whole \r\necosystems. The climate hazards specific to freshwater systems not \r\ndocumented elsewhere in AR6 are summarised here."


id: 53fde779dc1c74f404574f0a6de71088
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12048
content:
"Since AR5, evidence of changes in the temperature of lakes and rivers \r\nhas continued to increase. Global warming rates for lake surface \r\nwaters were estimated as 0.21degC-0.45degC per decade between 1970 \r\nand 2010, exceeding sea-surface temperature (SST) trends of 0.09degC \r\nper decade between 1980 and 2017 (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Figure 2.2; (Schneider and Hook, 2010; Kraemer et al., 2015; O'Reilly \r\net al., 2015; Woolway et al., 2020b). Warming of lake surface water \r\ntemperatures was variable within regions (O'Reilly et  al., 2015) but \r\nmore homogeneous than deep-water temperature changes (Pilla \r\net al., 2020). Because temperature trends in lakes can vary vertically, \r\nhorizontally and seasonally, complex changes have occurred in the \r\namount of habitat available to aquatic organisms at particular depths \r\nand temperatures (Kraemer et al., 2021)."


id: 604b295a6a2acc2c287a63e949031015
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14242
content:
"Lakes fed by glacial melt water are growing in response to climate \r\nchange and glacier retreat (robust evidence, high agreement) (Shugar \r\net al., 2020). Water storage increases on the Tibetan Plateau (Figure 2.3a) \r\nhave been attributed to changes in glacier melt, permafrost thaw, \r\nprecipitation and runoff, in part as a result of climate change (Huang \r\net al., 2011; Meng et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2020a). High confidence in \r\nattribution of these trends to climate change is supported by long-term \r\nground survey data and observations from the Gravity Recovery and \r\nClimate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission (Ma et al., 2010; Rodell \r\net al., 2018; Kraemer et al., 2020)."


id: 9cfd5d1f0cda3cb039956993d0863ce3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24860
content:
"In the Arctic, lake area has increased in regions with continuous \r\npermafrost, and decreased in regions where permafrost is thinner \r\nand discontinuous (robust evidence, high agreement) (See Chapter 4) \r\n(Smith et al., 2005; Andresen and Lougheed, 2015; Nitze et al., 2018; \r\nMekonnen et al., 2021)."


id: 4590177adf0909f967a6cfb72cb9720c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9461
content:
"Changes in river water temperatures ranged from -1.21degC to +1.076degC \r\nper decade between 1901 and 2010 (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Hari et al., 2006; Kaushal et al., 2010; Jurgelenaite et al., \r\n2012; Li et al., 2012; Latkovska and Apsite, 2016; Marszelewski and \r\nPius, 2016). The more rapid increase in surface water temperature "


id: a73d29756b18a873b9d9051150b57bfa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26637
content:
"(b) Left panel: map of temperatures of rivers (1901-2010). Note that the trends of river water temperatures are not directly comparable within rivers or to lakes, since time \r\nperiods are not consistent across river studies. Right panels (a) and (b) depict water temperature trends along a latitudinal gradient highlighting the above average warming rates \r\nin northern Polar Regions (polar amplification). Data sources for lakes: (O'Reilly et al., 2015; Carrea and Merchant, 2019; Woolway et al., 2020a; Woolway et al., 2020b). Data \r\nsources for rivers: (Webb and Walling, 1992; Langan et al., 2001; Daufresne et al., 2004; Moatar and Gailhard, 2006; Lammers et al., 2007; Patterson et al., 2007; Webb and Nobilis, \r\n2007; Durance and Ormerod, 2009; Kaushal et al., 2010; Pekarova et al., 2011; Jurgelenaite et al., 2012; Markovic et al., 2013; Arora et al., 2016; Latkovska and Apsite, 2016; \r\nMarszelewski and Pius, 2016; Jurgelenaite et al., 2017)."


id: 38fe79d02cee346cdbd53efc004dab62
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7232
content:
"species composition as well as having societal impacts (See Chapter \r\n3 in (IPCC, 2018b)) (Bunn and Arthington, 2002; Thomson et al., 2012; \r\nChessman, 2015; Kakouei et al., 2018)."


id: 3e8d82c4477e89124db3ca4cbd8e7b8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8191
content:
"(a) Changes in water storage on the Tibetan Plateau. Map of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Asia, showing the percent change in surface water extent from 1984 to 2019 based \r\non LANDSAT imagery. Increases in surface water extent in this region are mainly caused by climate change-mediated increases in precipitation and glacial melt (Source: EC JRC/\r\nGoogle; (Pekel et al., 2016)."


id: 246e2374f60a135727e9550f0e061fe4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3605
content:
"(b) Global map of the median trend in annual mean river flow derived from 7250 observatories around the world (in 1971-2010). Some regions are drying (northeast Brazil, \r\nsouthern Australia and the Mediterranean) and others are wetting (northern Europe), mainly caused by large-scale shifts in precipitation, changes in factors that influence \r\nevapotranspiration and alterations of the timing of snow accumulation and melt driven by rising temperatures (Source: (Gudmundsson et al., 2021)."


id: 243418dcdf1ea6022f06beeadff488fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3557
content:
"(a) Future changes in lakes that \r\nexperience intermittent winter ice cover \r\nin the Northern Hemisphere."


id: b8232f76dc3e14b7d5cfc534f753fe5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29611
content:
"(a) Spatial distribution of current (light grey areas) and future (coloured areas) Northern Hemisphere lakes that may experience intermittent winter ice cover with climate warming. \r\nProjections were based on current conditions (1970-2010) and four established air temperature projections (Data source: (Sharma et al., 2019)."


id: b254657c1ffb6278ed8918cc1a6b19d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28612
content:
"(b) Spatial distribution of projected change in Northern Hemisphere river ice duration under the RCP4.5 emission scenario by 2080-2100 relative to the period 2009-2029. White \r\nareas refer to rivers without ice cover in the period 2009-2029 (zero days). Reference period isolines indicate river ice duration in the period 2009-2029. Coloured areas depict \r\nloss of ice duration in days. Blue areas depict a projected increase in river ice duration. Grey land areas indicate a lack of Landsat-observable rivers (Data source: (Yang et al., 2020)."


id: f863e71cfd814f1c7aa7811066b70f69
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41069
content:
"for future projections of their resistance and resilience towards extreme \r\nevents (Leonard et al., 2014; Stockwell et al., 2020). See Table SM2.1 \r\nfor specific examples of observed changes."


id: d32e499fc2545a131047719af1645256
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34500
content:
"change. For the decline of glaciers, snow and permafrost, see Chapter \r\n4 (this report) and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in \r\na Changing Climate (IPCC, 2019b)."


id: a433e4823dc7151660f63eeb934ccd12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26080
content:
"Given the strength of relationship between past GSAT and warming \r\ntrends at lake surfaces (Figure  2.2; Section  2.3.3.1) and projected \r\nincreases in heat waves, surface water temperatures are projected to \r\ncontinue to increase (Woolway et al., 2021). Mean May to October lake \r\nsurface temperatures in 46,557 European lakes were projected to be \r\n2.9degC, 4.5degC and 6.5degC warmer by 2081-2099 compared to the historic \r\nperiod (1981-1999) under RCP2.0, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively \r\n(Woolway et al., 2020a). Under RCP2.6, the average intensity of lake \r\nheat waves increases from 3.7degC to 4.0degC and the average duration \r\nfrom 7.7 to 27.0 days, relative to the historic period (1970-1999). For \r\nRCP8.5, warming increases to 5.4degC and duration increases dramatically \r\nto 95.5 days (medium confidence) (Woolway et al., 2021)."


id: 37728694688dd2244bbb556d911eb09e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6967
content:
"Worldwide alterations in lake mixing regimes in response to climate \r\nchange are projected (Kirillin, 2010). Most prominently, monomictic \r\nlakes--undergoing one mixing event in most years--will become \r\npermanently stratified, while lakes that are currently dimictic--mix\u0002ing twice per year--will become monomictic by 2080-2100 (medium \r\nconfidence) (Woolway and Merchant, 2019). Nevertheless, predicting \r\nmixing behaviour remains an important challenge and attribution to \r\nclimate change remains difficult (Schwefel et al., 2016; Bruce et al., \r\n2018)."


id: ad2187147d81f06ebb42b0dd3890b556
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27701
content:
"Rivers already under stress from human activities such as urban \r\ndevelopment and farming on floodplains are prone to reduced \r\nresilience to future extreme events (medium confidence) (Woodward \r\net  al., 2016; Talbot et  al., 2018). Thus, the potential for floods to \r\nbecome catastrophic for ecosystem services is exacerbated by LULCC \r\n(Peters et al., 2016; Talbot et al., 2018). However, biota can recover \r\nrapidly from extreme flood events if river geomorphology is not greatly \r\naltered. If instream habitat is strongly affected, recovery, if it occurs, \r\ntakes much longer, resulting in a decline of biodiversity (medium \r\nconfidence) (Thorp et al., 2010; Death et al., 2015; Poff et al., 2018)."


id: d4e8b79154b6795b756b6f5e29540dd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34775
content:
"Under climate projections of 3.2degC warming, 4.6% of the ice-covered \r\nlakes in the Northern Hemisphere could switch to intermittent winter \r\nice cover (Figure  2.4a; (Sharma et  al., 2019). Unfrozen and warmer \r\nlakes lose more water to evaporation (Wang et al., 2018b). By 2100, \r\nglobal annual lake evaporation will increase by 16%, relative to 2006-\r\n2015, under RCP8.5 (Woolway et al., 2020b). Moreover, melting of ice \r\ndecreases the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux, thus channelling \r\nmore energy into evaporation (medium confidence) (Wang et  al., \r\n2018b). In the periods 2009-2029 and 2080-2100, average duration \r\nof river ice is projected to decline by 7.3 and 16.7 days under RCP4.5 \r\nand RCP8.5, respectively (Figure 2.4b; (Yang et al., 2020)."


id: 5a64f0bd9d5818b1105a25a3c24e299
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13159
content:
"However, not all extreme events will have a biological impact, \r\ndepending, in particular, on the timing, magnitude and frequency \r\nof events and the antecedent conditions (Bailey and van de Pol, \r\n2016; Stockwell et  al., 2020; Jennings et  al., 2021; Thayne et  al., \r\n2021). For instance, an extreme wind event may have little impact \r\non phytoplankton in a lake that was fully mixed prior to the event. \r\nConversely, the effects of a storm on phytoplankton communities \r\nmay compound when lakes have not yet recovered from a previous \r\nstorm or if periods of drought alternate with periods of intense \r\nprecipitation (limited evidence) (Leonard et al., 2014; Stockwell et al., \r\n2020)."


id: c79a38d2558b10ff2adec74725fd120d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32428
content:
"In summary, extreme events (heat waves, storms and loss of ice) \r\naffect lakes in terms of water temperature, water level, light, oxygen \r\nconcentrations and nutrient dynamics, which, in turn, affect primary \r\nproduction, fish communities and GHG emissions (high confidence). \r\nThese impacts are modified by levels of solar radiation, wind speed \r\nand precipitation (Woolway et al., 2020a). Droughts have a negative \r\nimpact on water quality in streams and lakes by increasing water \r\ntemperature, salinity, the frequency of algal blooms and contaminant \r\nconcentrations, and reducing concentrations of nutrients and dissolved \r\noxygen (medium confidence) (Peters et  al., 2016; Alfieri et  al., \r\n2017; Woolway et  al., 2020a). Understanding how these pressures \r\nsubsequently cascade through freshwater ecosystems will be essential "


id: da2faa55b52a44cd145eef40fbfcf4eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35681
content:
"Authors: Rebecca Harris (Australia, Chapter 2, CCP3), Philip Boyd (Australia, Chapter 3), Rita Adrian (Germany, Chapter 2), Jorn Birkmann \r\n(Germany, Chapter 8), Sarah Cooley (USA, Chapter 3), Simon Donner (Canada, Chapter 3), Mette Mauritzen (Norway, Chapter 3), Guy \r\nMidgley (South Africa, Chapter 16); Camille Parmesan (France/USA/UK, Chapter 2), Dieter Piepenburg (Germany, Chapter 13, CCP6), \r\nMarie-Fanny Racault (UK/France, Chapter 3), Bjorn Rost (Germany, Chapter 3, CCP6), David Schoeman (Australia, Chapter 3), Stavana E. \r\nStrutz (USA/Chapter 2), Maarten van Aalst (the Netherlands, Chapter 16)."


id: 4264051fb35abc0d7900c4ddbc68bb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8876
content:
"Increasingly, the magnitude of extreme events is exceeding the values projected for mean conditions for 2100, regardless of emissions \r\nscenario (Figure Cross-Chapter Box  EXTREMES.1). This has collapsed the timeline that organisms and natural communities have to \r\nacclimate or adapt to climate change (medium confidence). Consequently, rather than having decades to identify, develop and adopt \r\nsolutions, actions to build resilience and assist recovery following extreme events are required quickly if they are to be effective."


id: de5ea1a0b70c175ae823cf32361f15ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36383
content:
"Recent extremes highlight the characteristics that enable natural systems to resist or recover from events, helping natural resource \r\nmanagers to develop solutions to improve the resilience of natural communities and identify the limits to adaptation (Bergstrom et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 408347b40f99924097ee8b989ea395e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8539
content:
"Heat waves are now regularly occurring that exceed the physiological thresholds of some species, including birds and other small \r\nendotherms such as flying foxes (high confidence) (Sections 2.4.2.2, 2.4.2.6). Heat waves in Australia, North America and southern Africa \r\nhave caused mass mortality events due to lethal hyperthermia and dehydration (Saunders et al., 2011; Conradie et al., 2020; McKechnie \r\net al., 2021), reducing fitness (du Plessis et al., 2012; Andrew et al., 2017; Sharpe et al., 2019; van de Ven et al., 2019; van de Ven et al., \r\n2020), breeding success, and recruitment (Kennedy et al., 2013; Wiley and Ridley, 2016; Ratnayake et al., 2019) and affecting daily activity \r\nand geographic distributions (Albright et al., 2017). They also place enormous demands on wildlife management agencies and pose risks \r\nto human health (Welbergen et al., 2008)."


id: 36aa782453437097b4a6e56f1b263c50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6848
content:
"Recent mortality events affected 14 species of bird and fruit bats (Epomophorus wahlbergi) in South Africa when maximum air \r\ntemperatures exceeded 43-45degC in 2020 (McKechnie et al., 2021). Passerine birds seem more vulnerable to lethal hyperthermia, due to \r\nthe relative inefficiency of panting to lose heat (McKechnie et al., 2021) and also their small size, as heat tolerance generally increases \r\nwith body mass (McKechnie et al., 2021). Several mass mortality events of flying foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus, P. alecto) have occurred \r\nin eastern Australia when maximum air temperatures exceeded 42deg (Welbergen et al., 2008). Nineteen such events occurred between \r\n1994 and 2008, compared to three events prior to 1994. In January 2002, maximum temperatures exceeded the 30-year average mean \r\ndaily maximum by up to 16.5deg and killed >3500 individuals (Welbergen et al., 2008). In 2014, an estimated 45,500 flying foxes died in "


id: e402bd801774d3250bfb2b4c426b85d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37410
content:
"a single day, when average maximum temperatures were >=8degC above average (Bureau of Meteorology, 2014). Drought compounds the \r\nimpacts, as mortality increases when water availability is low (Welbergen et al., 2008; Mo and Roache, 2020; McKechnie et al., 2021)."


id: a9a260b8c4e7e5dc795c75634c92f17e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27063
content:
"Antarctica encountered its first recorded heat wave in 2020. Record high temperatures occurred in East Antarctica (Robinson et al., 2020), \r\nwith a maximum (9.2deg) temperature ~7deg above the mean maximum, and minimum temperatures > 0deg. Record high temperatures (18.3deg) \r\nwere also recorded in West Antarctica (Robinson et al., 2020). It is too soon to know the impact on polar life, but such abrupt heating is \r\nexpected to have wide-ranging effects on biota, from flash-flooding and dislodgement of plants, to excess meltwater supplying moisture \r\nto arid polar ecosystems (Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Polar). Heat waves in Siberia in 2016, 2018 and 2020, with air temperature anomalies \r\n>6deg, were associated with extensive wildfires, pest infestations and melting permafrost (Overland and Wang, 2021)."


id: 79784a0262d9d5c61d4f177d6a1a1780
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18571
content:
"Several characteristics of natural systems are associated with greater vulnerability to extreme events (Figure Cross-Chapter \r\nBox EXTREMES.2), knowledge of which can inform solutions to build resilience and aid recovery (Robinson et al., 2020). Resilience \r\ncan be built prior to an event by minimising additional disturbances, such as water extraction from river systems, pollution of aquatic \r\nsystems, fragmentation of land and LULCCs. Managing landscapes to reduce fragmentation and increase habitat extent, connectivity and \r\nheterogeneity, by increasing the number and extent of reserves, may provide local refugia from extreme events and enhance post-event \r\nrecolonisation, but may be less effective for marine systems (Section 3.6). Maintaining taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity \r\nis important, as more diverse systems may be more stable in the face of disturbances (Pimm, 1984; Garcia-Palacios et al., 2018)."


id: a8a934b5e63db78e6acd1f6abf45ca04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26878
content:
"Monitoring following extreme events can help identify immediate impacts and the potential for cascading interactions, such as changes to \r\ncompetitive interactions following range shifts, impacts on freshwater ecosystems following wildfires and the spread of invasive species. \r\nOngoing monitoring of recovery and effectiveness of management intervention is important, focussing on habitat-forming species (e.g., "


id: fe53938344798715557c0308c553faf6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42114
content:
"kelp, corals and dominant tree species) and keystone species (e.g., filter-feeders, macrophytes and top predators), as the loss of these \r\nspecies can lead to ecosystem tipping points, beyond which the system may not recover (Collins et al., 2019) (Sections 2.5.3; 3.4.4.1; \r\n3.4.4.1.4; chapters 9-15, this report)."


id: 5525d14161f56c2b7cca2c0bc4fa196f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12254
content:
"The acute impacts of extreme events, in addition to the chronic stress of changing mean conditions, are accelerating and amplifying the \r\nbiological effects of climate change. This amplification is being observed globally and in all realms where life exists. Extreme events are \r\ncompressing the timeline available for natural systems to adapt, and impeding our ability to identify, develop and adopt solutions. Recent \r\nevents highlight the urgent need to mitigate global GHG emissions and identify solutions to halt accelerating impacts on natural systems \r\n(Diaz et al., 2020). "


id: 37f9b7b3466d8ee14683ba937984a7bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7055
content:
"In summary, with ongoing climate warming and an increase in the \r\nfrequency and intensity of extreme events, observed increases in water \r\ntemperature, losses of ice and shifts in thermal regime are projected to \r\ncontinue (high confidence)."


id: 2b219421719794f69c72fa13caf3898b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4827
content:
"climate drivers (Table 2.2; Table 2.3, Table SM2.1) (Poyry et al., 2009; \r\nChen et al., 2011; Grewe et al., 2013; Gibson-Reinemer and Rahel, 2015; \r\nMacLean and Beissinger, 2017; Pacifici et al., 2017; Anderegg et al., 2019). \r\nRange shifts stem from local population extinctions along warm-range \r\nboundaries (Anderegg et al., 2019) as well as from the colonisation of \r\nnew regions at cold-range boundaries (Ralston et al., 2017)."


id: 4b27b36216af03cbc3eabc25af2224e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10465
content:
"Many studies since AR4 have tended not to be designed as attribution \r\nstudies, particularly recent large-scale, multi-species meta-analyses. \r\nThat is to say, all the data available was included in such studies \r\n(from both undisturbed and highly degraded lands and including \r\nvery short-term data sets of <20 years), with little attempt to design \r\nthe studies to differentiate the effects of climate change from those \r\nof other potential confounding variables. These studies tended to \r\nfind greater lag and a lower proportion of species changing in the \r\ndirections expected from climate change, with the authors concluding \r\nthat LULCC, particularly habitat loss and fragmentation, was impeding \r\nwild species from effectively tracking climate change (Lenoir and \r\nSvenning, 2015; Rumpf et al., 2019; Lenoir et al., 2020)."


id: 85306b8c1fec0db6acc1ce980160f27d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20574
content:
"Global meta-analyses of terrestrial systems in AR3 and AR4 concentrated \r\non long time frames (>20 years) and findings from relatively undisturbed \r\nareas, where confidence in attributing observed changes to climate \r\nchange is high. Recent global and regional meta-analyses (AR5 and \r\nlater) have been broader, including data from degraded and disturbed \r\nareas and studies with shorter time frames (Tables 2.2a,b)."


id: 1241bce162c3d36d25b64b3050f78f42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 408
content:
"Attribution is strong for species and species-interactions for which \r\nthere is a robust mechanistic understanding of the role of climate \r\non biological processes (high confidence). Unprecedented outbreaks \r\nof spruce beetles occurring from Alaska to Utah in the 1990s were \r\nattributed to warm weather that, in Alaska, facilitated a halving of the \r\ninsect's life cycle from two years to one (Logan et al., 2003). Milder \r\nwinters and warmer growing seasons were likewise implicated in \r\npoleward expansions and increasing outbreaks of several forest pests \r\n(Weed et  al., 2013), leading to the current prediction that 41% of \r\nmajor insect pest species will further increase their damage as climate \r\nwarms, and only 4% will reduce their impacts, while the rest will show \r\nmixed responses (Lehmann et al., 2020)."


id: 3a5801e726cac29e8ceec1c823957932
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7469
content:
"Range shifts in a poleward and upward direction, following expected \r\ntrajectories according to local and regional climate trends, are strongly \r\noccurring in freshwater fish populations in North America (Lynch et al., \r\n2016b), Europe (Comte and Grenouillet, 2013; Gozlan et al., 2019) and \r\nCentral Asia (Gozlan et al., 2019) (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nCold-water fish, such as coregonids and smelt have been negatively \r\naffected at the equatorial borders of their distributions (Jeppesen et al., \r\n2012). Upward elevational range shifts in rivers and streams have been \r\nobserved. Systematic shifts towards higher elevation and upstream were "


id: 5bb1d7adc0fc28b11a17aff5427ba2fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13384
content:
"Poleward and upward range shifts were already attributable to climate \r\nwarming with high confidence in AR5. Publication of observed range \r\nshifts in accord with climate change have accelerated since AR5 and \r\nstrengthened attribution. Ongoing latitudinal and elevational range \r\nshifts driven by regional climate trends are now well-established globally \r\nacross many groups of organisms, and attributable to climate change \r\nwith very high confidence due to very high consistency across a now \r\nvery large body of species and studies and an in-depth understanding \r\nof mechanisms underlying physiological and ecological responses to "


id: 404423b08277a3edc8f2c7602ee0e7db
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8495
content:
"found for 32 stream-fish species in France following regional variation \r\nin climate change (Comte and Grenouillet, 2013). Bull trout (Salvelinus \r\nconfluentus) in Idaho (USA), were estimated to have lost 11-20% \r\n(8-16% per decade) of the headwater stream lengths necessary for \r\ncold-water spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses \r\noccurring in the coldest habitats (Isaak et al., 2010). Range contractions \r\nof the same species have been found in the Rocky Mountains watershed \r\n(Eby et  al., 2014). Likewise, the distribution of the stonefly Zapada \r\nglacier, endemic to the alpine streams of the Glacier National Park in \r\nMontana (USA), has been reduced over several decades by an upstream \r\nretreat to higher, cooler sites as water temperatures have increased and \r\nglacial masses have decreased (Giersch et al., 2015)."


id: a56903c4591f582e46aba3dfa01190b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26333
content:
"The melting of glaciers has led to a change in water discharge associated \r\nwith community turnover in glacier-fed streams (Cauvy-Fraunie and \r\nDangles, 2019). For instance, glacier-obligate macro-invertebrates have \r\nstarted disappearing when glacial cover drops below approximately \r\n50% (robust evidence, high agreement), reviewed in (Hotaling et al., \r\n2017). For freshwater invertebrates, no meaningful trends have been \r\ndetected in geographic extent or population size for most species \r\n(Gozlan et al., 2019)."


id: 18ebdc99b3b20afc37078bc7852e10fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1598
content:
"An invasive freshwater cyanobacterium in lakes, Cylindrospermopsis \r\nraciborskii, originating from the tropics, has spread to temperate zones \r\nover the last few decades due to the climate change-induced earlier \r\nincrease of water temperature in spring (Wiedner et al., 2007), aided \r\nby a competitive advantage in eutrophic systems (Ekvall et al., 2013; \r\nUrrutia-Cordero et al., 2016)."


id: 9bcf8b6e7b1d6cf99afb3e3894b8d7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24666
content:
"Many high montane possums in Australia have low physiological \r\ntolerance to heat waves, with death occuring due to heat-driven \r\ndehydration at temperatures exceeding 29degC-30degC for >4-5 h over \r\nseveral days (Meade et al., 2018; Turner, 2020). Major declines have \r\nbeen recorded for several species, population extinctions have occured \r\nat lower elevations since the early 2000s, and the white sub-species of \r\nthe lemuroid ringtail possum (Hemibelideus lemuroides) in Queensland, \r\nAustralia, disappeared after heat waves in 2005 (high confidence): \r\nintensive censuses found only 2 individuals in 2009 (Chandler, 2014; \r\nWeber et al., 2021)."


id: deb0e6cdf25e7d867757a274a263aae3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36441
content:
"Two terrestrial and freshwater species have become extinct in \r\nthe wild, with climate change implicated as a key driver. The cloud \r\nforest-restricted golden toad (Incilius periglenes) was extinct by 1990 in \r\na nature preserve in Costa Rica, driven by successive extreme droughts. \r\nThis occurred in the absence of chytridiomycosis infection, caused by \r\nthe fungal pathogen Bd, verified during field censuses of golden toad \r\npopulations in the process of extinction as well as genetic analyses of \r\nmuseum specimens, although Bd was present in other frog species in "


id: 1ff38e1c6e58b4ea8b92ad3e93ce9a70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2835
content:
"2.2 down to 0.065 hectares), and from 11 plant species down to \r\ntwo (Gynther et al., 2016; Watson, 2016; Woinarski, 2016; Woinarski \r\net al., 2017). The island was unihabited with few non-climatic threats, \r\nproviding high confidence in the attribution of extinction of the BC \r\nmelomys to climate change-driven increases in the frequency and \r\nduration of island inundation (Turner and Batianoff, 2007; Woinarski \r\net al., 2014; Gynther et al., 2016; Watson, 2016; Woinarski et al., 2017)."


id: cf7d0ae11e89315abb8c29d0bb2b2208
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33859
content:
"the region (medium evidence, high agreement) (Pounds et al., 1999; \r\nPounds et al., 2006; Puschendorf et al., 2006; Richards-Hrdlicka, 2013). \r\nThe interaction between expansion of chytrid fungus globally and \r\nlocal climate change is implicated in the extinction of a wide range \r\nof tropical amphibians (high confidence) (see Section 2.4.2.7.1 Case \r\nStudy 2 Chytrid fungus and climate change)."


id: 3c1a9112b15e9af16f2d1b031b8dafde
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7765
content:
"The BC melomys (Melomys rubicola), the only mammal endemic to the \r\nGreat Barrier Reef, inhabited a small (5-hectare) low-lying (<3-m-high) \r\ncay in the Torres Strait Islands, Australia. Recorded as having a \r\npopulation size of several hundred in 1978, this mammal has not \r\nbeen seen since 2009 and was declared extinct in 2016 (Gynther et al., \r\n2016). SLR and documented increases in storm surge and in tropical \r\ncyclones, driven by climate change, led to multiple inundations of the \r\nisland in the 2000s. Between 1998 and 2014, herbacious vegetation, \r\nthe food resource for the BC melomys, declined by 97% in area (from "


id: fc88fd27b5bc5aee987ebd863c28cff4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41794
content:
"In the IUCN Red List (IUCN, 2019), 16.2% of terrestrial and freshwater \r\nspecies (n = 3,777 species) that are listed as endangered, critically \r\nendangered or extinct in the wild (n = 23,251 species) list climate \r\nchange or severe weather as one of their threats."


id: 16935efa50acba253c2181571a45b32f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1187
content:
"Climate change is already posing major threats to biodiversity, and the most vulnerable plants and animals will probably go extinct. If climate \r\nchange continues to worsen, it is expected to cause many more species to become extinct unless we take actions to improve the resilience of \r\nnatural areas, through protection, connection and restoration. We can also help individual species that we care most about by reducing the \r\nstress that they are under from human activities, and even helping them move to new places as their climate space shifts and they need to \r\nshift to keep up."


id: b148127b2d489a3a2de53ae29aa9031a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28418
content:
"Fortunately, there are some things we can do to help. We can take action to assist, protect and conserve natural \r\necosystems and prevent the loss of our planet's endangered wildlife, such as:"


id: b51fee0dbe695316c065ce2c78676627
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29100
content:
"'Assisting' the migration of species. This has many names, 'assisted colonisation', 'assisted translocation', 'assisted \r\nmigration' and 'assisted movement'. In effect, it is about helping endangered species to move to a new area with a \r\ngood habitat for them to survive. 'Passive' assisted colonisation focusses on helping species move themselves, while \r\nthe most 'active' form implies picking up individuals and transporting them to a new location. This is different from \r\nreintroductions that are already a normal part of conservation programs. Climate-driven translocations constitute \r\nmoving plants or animals to an area where they have never lived historically, a new location that is now suitable \r\nfor them due to climate change."


id: ef8014d07b4787378b61c2bcddd925
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39512
content:
"This active form of 'assisted colonisation' has been controversial, because exotic species can become invasive \r\nwhen they are moved between continents or oceans. For example, no one would advocate moving polar bears to \r\nAntarctica, as they would likely feast on native penguins, thus causing another conservation problem. However, \r\nmoving species only a few hundred kilometers avoids most adverse outcomes, and this is often all that is needed \r\nto help a wild plant or animal cope with lower levels of climate change. In extreme cases, another type of assisted "


id: 31e2aab23463cb8a9a83cb0eee6e495a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6031
content:
"adaptation is to preserve species until we can stabilize then reverse climate change, and then reintroduce them to \r\nthe wild. This might include moving them into zoos or into seed or frozen embryo banks."


id: 639c7f8569988d32749002e80bd3fa3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14817
content:
"Assisting, protecting and conserving natural ecosystems would help enhance biodiversity overall as well as aiding \r\nalready endangered species. Diverse plant and animal communities are more resilient to disturbances, including \r\nclimate change. A healthy ecosystem also recovers more quickly from increases in extreme events, such as floods, \r\ndroughts and heat waves, that are a part of human-driven climate change. Healthy ecosystems are critical to prevent \r\nspecies' extinctions from climate change, but are also important for human health and well-being, providing clean, \r\nplentiful water, cleaning the air, providing recreation and holiday adventures, and making people feel happier, \r\ncalmer and more content. "


id: e5857b95551dce781bbdef7c4d4a63f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37689
content:
"Figure FAQ2.1.1 |  Possible actions to assist, protect and conserve natural ecosystems and prevent the loss of our planet's endangered \r\nwildlife in the face of continued climate change. (Inspired by the Natural Alliance website(c) Chris Heward/GWCT)."


id: f60abf6a7302656ddbd98facb0f1552a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40643
content:
"globally. However, thus far, empirical evidence and mechanistic under\u0002standing to inform modelling is too limited to draw general conclu\u0002sions about the nature of current and future climate change-driven \r\nchanges within entire food webs on a global scale (Urban et al., 2016)."


id: 9b4273b1f9b66927defc652d74afbd6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24562
content:
"documentations of entire species driven extinct by recent climate \r\nchange is emerging (medium confidence)."


id: 87eb2928dbd0ad4e4523f077d984e2b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21069
content:
"In a study of 1567 lakes across Europe and North America, Kakouei \r\n(2021) identified climate change as the major driver of increases in \r\nphytoplankton biomass in remote areas with minimal LULCC. Greater \r\ntemperature variability can be more important than long-term \r\ntemperature trends as a driver of zooplankton biodiversity (Shurin \r\net al., 2010). Reductions of winter severity attributed to anthropogenic \r\nclimate change are increasing winter algal biomass, and motile and \r\nphototropic species, at the expense of mixotrophic species (Ozkundakci \r\net al., 2016; Hampton et al., 2017)."


id: 9e0a3bba12ba7e2e63bae50b3d9deda8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25042
content:
"Analyses indicated that responses in range shifts and timing were \r\nlagging behind the changes expected from regional warming. This type \r\nof lag, where biological response is less than expected from known \r\nunderlying physiology or general climatic limits, is called 'climate debt'. \r\nExamples of climate debt, measured from community composition \r\nchanges, come from birds and butterflies in Europe (Devictor et  al., \r\n2012) and lowland forest herbaceous plants in France (Bertrand \r\net  al., 2011). The French study found that larger debts occurred in \r\ncommunities with warmer baseline conditions and that some of the \r\napparent debt stemmed from the ability of species to tolerate warming \r\nin situ, so no range shift was observed."


id: 6ba0c13d914ca1387f74912abce509af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16239
content:
"Tropical lakes are prone to loss of deep-water oxygen due to lake \r\nwarming, with negative consequences for their fisheries and their \r\nbiodiversity (Lewis Jr, 2000; Van Bocxlaer et  al., 2012). Many ancient \r\ntropical lakes (Malawi, Tanganyika, Victoria, Titicaca, Towuti and Matano) \r\nhold thousands of endemic animal species (Vadeboncoeur et al., 2011)."


id: f74d12f9f8a31086e41be97c5944baaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40885
content:
"Prominent changes in freshwater community composition, such as in\u0002creases in cyanobacteria and warm-tolerant zooplankton species, the \r\nloss of cold-water fish, gains in thermo-tolerant fish, macro-inverte\u0002brates, and floating macrophytes, are occurring (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement, medium confidence) (Adrian et  al., 2016; Hossain \r\net  al., 2016; Short et  al., 2016; Huisman et  al., 2018; Gozlan et  al., \r\n2019). Geothermal streams have provided evidence about community \r\nstructure and ecosystem function at high temperatures. A study of 14 \r\nsuch habitats reported simplified food web structures and shortened \r\npathways of energy flux between consumers and resources (high con\u0002fidence) (O'Gorman et al., 2019). Changes in the relative abundance of \r\nspecies, species composition and biodiversity due to warming trends, \r\nand non-climate-driven changes are to be expected in lakes and rivers "


id: da16de9e74569abc36c91a4f9a772fc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35669
content:
"between consumers and resources (O'Gorman et al., 2019). Macrophytes \r\nbenefit from rising water temperatures, but increased shading from \r\nincreased phytoplankton biomass could offset this (Hossain et al., 2016; \r\nShort et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2017a)."


id: 1d96dc6b93aef658580e30157b068f43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2391
content:
"that the observed advances fell short of what was expected and that \r\na substantial phenological climate debt had been generated (Radchuk \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 776596656398bf8083b8c3a9b64f1d82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18212
content:
"Taxonomic groups have differed in their responses (Parmesan, 2007; \r\nThackeray et  al., 2010), and a few have completely diverged from \r\ngeneral trends. For example, seabirds continue to breed with their \r\npre-climate-change phenologies (Keogan et al., 2018). Newer reviews \r\nand analyses reveal differences in responses across continents and time \r\nintervals (Piao et al., 2019). Mean advance in days per decade for plants \r\nwas 5.5 in China and 3.0-4.2 in Europe, but only 0.9 in North America \r\n(Piao et al., 2019). Mean values for the retardation of autumn leaf fall, \r\nwhich can be more influenced by photoperiod and less by temperature \r\nthan spring leaf-out, were 0.36 days per decade in Europe (Menzel et al., \r\n2020), 2.6 days per decade in China and around 3 days per decade in \r\nthe USA (medium evidence, high agreement) (Piao et al., 2019)."


id: 1dfe1318cb7d18773c27d1ea98c9a46e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2469
content:
"Since AR5, the number of studies of changes in phenology (timing \r\nof biological events) has increased substantially, aided by advances \r\nin remote sensing (Piao et  al., 2019). Phenological studies have \r\ndocumented particularly consistent conclusions on responses of plants \r\nand animals to warming, including the advancement of spring events \r\nand the lengthening of growing seasons in temperate regions (via a \r\ncombination of advancement of spring events and, to a lesser extent, \r\nthe retardation of autumn events) (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Table 2.2, Table 2.3, Table SM2.1) (Menzel et al., 2020). In the Tropics, \r\nby contrast, changes in precipitation have more strongly influenced \r\nanimal phenology than have temperature changes (Cohen et  al., \r\n2018). A meta-analysis compared observed phenological advances in \r\nbirds with expectations due to warming local climates, and concluded "


id: 4764ba2da1b5d216bdfee50b75f48046
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9769
content:
"Early meta-analyses tested the straightforward hypotheses that \r\nwarming should shift timing earlier and ranges polewards. Once these \r\ntrends had been established (IPCC, 2014b; Parmesan and Hanley, "


id: 997dcee4ea312640bfbc2842c5b201e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24234
content:
"2015), exceptions to them became a focus of study. For example, in \r\nnorthern regions of the Northern Hemisphere, the spring flowering of \r\nsome plants was delayed instead of being advanced as to be expected \r\nwith warming (Cook et al., 2012a; Cook et al., 2012b; Legave et al., \r\n2015). These turned out to be species requiring vernalisation (winter \r\nchilling) to speed their development in spring (Ettinger et al., 2020). \r\nFor these plants, phenological changes result from the combined \r\neffects of advancement caused by spring warming and retardation \r\ncaused by winter warming. Incorporating this level of complexity into \r\nanalyses revealed that a greater proportion of species was responding \r\nto climate change than estimated according to the simple expectation \r\nthat warming would always cause advancement (92% responding \r\nversus 72% from earlier analyses) (Cook et al., 2012b)."


id: c38510f438aedc70fd39a307038faec4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31674
content:
"Impacts on species physiology in terrestrial and freshwater systems \r\nhave been observed, and attributed to climate change (medium \r\nconfidence). These include changes in tolerance to high temperatures \r\n(Healy and Schulte, 2012; Gunderson and Stillman, 2015; Deery et al., \r\n2021), increased metabolic costs of living at elevated temperatures \r\n(Scheffers et  al., 2016) and shifts in sex ratios in species with \r\ntemperature-dependent sex determination. For example, warmer \r\ntemperatures have driven the masculinisation of lizard populations \r\n(Schwanz and Janzen, 2008; Schwanz, 2016; Edmands, 2021) and the \r\nfeminisation of turtle populations (Telemeco et al., 2009). Skewed sex \r\nratios can lead to mate shortages, reduced population growth, reduced \r\nadaptive potential and increased extinction risk, because genetic \r\ndiversity decreases as fewer individuals mate and heterozygosity is \r\nlost (Mitchell and Janzen, 2010; Edmands, 2021)."


id: f74e8374a6ee810b64007de10f9040a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40889
content:
"Animal species can show vernalisation equivalent to that in plants \r\n(Stalhandske et  al., 2017). However, a semi-global meta-analysis of \r\nterrestrial animals failed to detect the delaying effects of warming \r\nwinters (Cohen et  al., 2018). The same animal-based meta-analysis \r\ncontrasted phenological changes in temperate-zone animals, which \r\nare principally explained by changes in temperature, with those at \r\nlower latitudes, which tend to follow changes in precipitation (Cohen \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 7934f270f4b5181ade68bd9e8a58aed7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18518
content:
"Behavioural plasticity (flexibility) such as nest-site selection can \r\nprovide a partial buffer from the effects of increasing temperature by \r\nplacing the individual in a slightly cooler microclimate, but there are \r\nenvironmental and physical limits to this plasticity (medium confidence) \r\n(Refsnider and Janzen, 2016; Telemeco et al., 2017). Plasticity in heat \r\ntolerance (e.g., due to reversible acclimation or acclimatisation) can \r\nalso potentially compensate for rising temperatures (Angilletta Jr, \r\n2009), but ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal \r\ntolerance and acclimation is expected to only slightly reduce the risk of \r\noverheating in even the most plastic taxa (low confidence) (Gunderson \r\nand Stillman, 2015)."


id: a78625370ccaed2a450bacd561af1425
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26686
content:
"Vitasse et al. (2018), working with alpine trees, found that phenological \r\ndelay with increasing elevation had declined from 34 days/1000 m in \r\n1960 to 22 days/1000 m in 2016, greatly reducing the differences in \r\ntiming between trees growing at different elevations. This reduction \r\nwas greatest after warmer winters, suggesting that winter warming is \r\na principal cause of the overall trend."


id: 70180a76cab37c90ea3686de6661f0df
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16972
content:
"Lian et al. (2020) observed that earlier spring leaf-out in the Northern \r\nHemisphere is causing increases in evapotranspiration that are not fully \r\ncompensated by increased precipitation. The consequence is a greater \r\nsoil moisture deficit in summer, expected to exacerbate impacts of \r\nheat waves as well as drought stress. In Arctic freshwater ecosystems, \r\nHeim et  al. (2015) demonstrated the importance of seasonal cues \r\nfor fish migration, which can be impacted by climate change due to \r\nreduced stream connectivity and fragmentation, earlier peak flows and \r\nincreased evapotranspiration."


id: 8e96516a8563b5d2b58b784df83a0979
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22269
content:
"Geographic variation in thermal tolerance plasticity is expected to \r\ninfluence the vulnerability and range shifts of species in response to \r\nclimate change (Gunderson and Stillman, 2015; Sun et al., 2021). In \r\nmany ectotherms, plasticity in thermal tolerance increases polewards, \r\nas thermal seasonality increases (Chown et al., 2004), contributing to \r\nhigher vulnerability to warming in tropical organisms (low confidence) \r\n(Huey et al., 2009; Campos et al., 2021). Some species have evolved \r\nextreme upper thermal limits at the expense of plasticity, reflecting \r\nan evolutionary trade-off between these traits (Angilletta et al., 2003; \r\nStillman, 2003). The most heat-tolerant species, such as those from \r\nextreme environments, may therefore be at a greater risk of warming \r\nbecause of an inability to physiologically adjust to thermal change (low \r\nconfidence) (Bozinovic et al., 2011; Overgaard et al., 2014; Magozzi \r\nand Calosi, 2015)."


id: 5ca59f3e3ac6096650c5533a1fcdf90a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13561
content:
"Precipitation has also been implicated in exceptions to the rule \r\nthat ranges should be shifting to higher elevations. In dry climates, \r\nincreases in precipitation accompanying climate warming can facilitate \r\ndownslope range shifts (Tingley et al., 2012)."


id: ac2af2f826b690fb0f0acf2eaa70ecc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27535
content:
"Multiple responses can co-occur. Hallfors et  al. (2021), in a study \r\nof 289 Lepidoptera in Finland, found that, with warming, 45% had \r\neither shifted their range northward or advanced their flight season. \r\nThe 15% of species that did both (shifting northward by 113.1 km \r\nand advancing their flight period by 2.7 days per decade, on average, \r\nover a 20-year period) had the largest population increases, and the \r\n40% of species that showed no response had the largest population \r\ndeclines."


id: c303def64a0c4a17c5ccec02f0b0138c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31585
content:
"Physiological changes have observable impacts on morphology, such as \r\nchanges in body size (and length of appendages), and colour changes \r\nin butterflies, dragonflies and birds (medium confidence) (Galeotti \r\net  al., 2009; Karell et  al., 2011). However, trends are not always \r\nlinear or consistent across realms, taxonomic groups or geographic \r\nregions (Gotanda et  al., 2015). Some morphological changes arise \r\nin response to environmental changes, rather than as the result of \r\ngenetic adaptation or selection for an optimal body type. For example, \r\ndietary changes associated with climate change have led to changes \r\nin chipmunk skull morphology (Walsh et al., 2016)."


id: 59eebfc45045ff1ca604b78db11256e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13069
content:
"temperature on body size (Zimova et al., 2021). A study of 52 species of \r\nNorth American migratory birds, based on >70,000 specimens, showed \r\nthat spring migration phenology has advanced over the past 40 years, \r\nconcurrent with widespread shifts in morphology (reduced body size \r\nand increased wing length), perhaps to compensate for the increased \r\nmetabolic cost of flight as body size decreases (Weeks et al., 2020)."


id: c1b5f10cd79392f1456ffe6519876a5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31383
content:
"Decreased body size has been suggested as a general response of species \r\nto climate change in freshwater species, given the temperature-related \r\nconstraints of metabolism with larger size. Reduced body size in \r\nresponse to global warming has been documented for freshwater \r\nbacteria, plankton and fish, as well as a shift towards smaller species \r\n(Daufresne et al., 2009; Winder et al., 2009; Jeppesen et al., 2010; Crozier \r\nand Hutchings, 2014; Jeppesen et al., 2014; Farmer et al., 2015; Rasconi \r\net al., 2015; Woodward et al., 2016). However, the lack of systematic \r\nempirical evidence in fresh waters, and confounding effects such as \r\ninteractions between temperature, nutrient availability and predation, \r\nlimit generalisations in attributing observed body size changes to \r\nclimate change (low confidence) (Pomati et al., 2020 Nutrients)."


id: e82c66f8b9355e512ffb604a9c09ebc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38175
content:
"2.4.2.7 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on Diseases of \r\nWildlife and Associated Impacts on Humans"


id: 4d917bbd0bdd9982febefbcec5df9366
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10925
content:
"Increased disease incidence is correlated with regional climatic changes, \r\nas expected from a basic understanding of underlying biology and \r\nrelationships between temperature, precipitation, and disease ecology \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Norwegian Polar Institute, 2009; \r\nTersago et al., 2009; Tabachnick, 2010; Paz, 2015; Dewage et al., 2019; \r\nDeksne et al., 2020; Shocket et al., 2020; Couper et al., 2021). Whether \r\nincreases in diseases in wild and domestic animals correspond to an \r\nincreased risk of disease in nearby human populations is complicated "


id: ffebd21ff8eaa3755ab53ca41d2b2035
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42420
content:
"Interactions between morphological changes and changes in phenology \r\nmay facilitate or constrain adaptation to climate change (medium \r\nconfidence) (Hedrick et al., 2021). For example, advancing phenology \r\nin migratory species may impose selection on morphological traits \r\n(e.g., wing length) to increase migration speed. If advancing spring \r\nphenology results in earlier breeding, this may offset the effect of rising \r\ntemperatures in the breeding range and reduce the effect of increasing "


id: 7b784dc8b36fc9c77160f128bd1d8cff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18928
content:
"and decreased host richness and abundance, leading to population \r\ncrashes (Larsen and Mouritsen, 2014; Mouritsen et al., 2018). Changes \r\nin temperature and precipitation, especially extreme events, can alter \r\ncommunity structure (Larsen et al., 2011) by increasing or decreasing \r\nparasites and their host organisms, and even altering host behaviour in \r\nways that are advantageous to parasites (Macnab and Barber, 2012)."


id: ba9da5baa99675a5e1f3b21d2608e948
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30047
content:
"by the potential buffering effects of the local medical system, access \r\nto health care and the socioeconomic status, education, behaviours \r\nand general health of the human population (see also Chapter 7 and \r\nCross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in this chapter)."


id: 88f6a13f6282ac3ff20df5394cc094ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21261
content:
"Climate change not only affects the occurrence of pathogens and \r\ntheir hosts in terms of geographic space but also impacts the \r\ntemporal patterns of disease transmission. Warmer winters allow \r\ngreater over-winter survival of arthropod vectors, which, coupled with \r\nlengthened transmission seasons, drive increases in vector population \r\nsizes, pathogen prevalence, and thus the proportion of vectors infected\r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Laaksonen et  al., 2009; Molnar \r\net al., 2013; Waits et al., 2018). For example, a parasitic nematode lung \r\nworm (Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis) has shortened its larval \r\ndevelopment time by half (from two years to one year), which has \r\nincreased infection rates in North American musk oxen (Norwegian \r\nPolar Institute, 2009)."


id: 264911d02dc404aeb8ed61fcc1d4fc9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3906
content:
"VBDs require arthropod vector hosts (e.g., insects or ticks), while other \r\ninfectious diseases (e.g., fungi, bacteria and helminths) have free-living \r\nlife stages and/or complex life cycles that require intermediate \r\nhosts (e.g., snails), all of which have temperature-driven rates of \r\ndevelopment and replication/reproduction (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Mordecai et al., 2013; Liu-Helmersson et al., 2014; Moran \r\nand Alexander, 2014; Bernstein, 2015; Marcogliese, 2016; Ogden and \r\nLindsay, 2016; Mordecai et  al., 2017; Short et  al., 2017; Caminade \r\net al., 2019; Cavicchioli et al., 2019; Mordecai et al., 2019; Liu et al., \r\n2020; Rocklov and Dubrow, 2020). Additionally, microbes such as \r\nbacteria thermally adapt to temperature changes through multiple \r\nmechanisms, indicating that warming will not reduce antibiotic \r\nresistance (MacFadden et  al., 2018; Parnanen et  al., 2019; Shukla, \r\n2019; McGough et al., 2020; Rodriguez-Verdugo et al., 2020)."


id: 76d147f53765a67dc6015f434a362a1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:46
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18115
content:
"Parasitic helminths can reduce growth and yield, kill livestock and \r\ninfect humans and wildlife, leading to health, agricultural and \r\neconomic losses (Fairweather, 2011; Charlier et  al., 2016; Charlier, \r\n2020). Attribution of increased incidence and risk of helminth disease \r\nto climate change is stronger than for other human diseases, thanks to \r\nlong-term records and careful analysis of other anthropogenic drivers \r\n(e.g., LUC, agricultural/livestock intensification, and anti-helminthic \r\nintervention and resistance) (van Dijk et al., 2008; van Dijk et al., 2010; \r\nFox et al., 2011b; Martinez-Valladares et al., 2013; Charlier et al., 2016; \r\nInnocent et al., 2017; Mehmood et al., 2017)."


id: 562aba7c687dea932d6a54f93dfc9ea4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12434
content:
"In Europe, evidence from laboratory studies, long-term surveillance, \r\nstatistical analyses and modelling shows that multiple helminth \r\npathogens and their host snails have extended their transmission \r\nwindows and increased their survival, fecundity, growth and \r\nabundances (robust evidence, high agreement). Furthermore, they \r\nhave expanded or shifted their ranges poleward due to increases \r\nin temperature, precipitation and humidity (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Lee et al., 1995; Pritchard et al., 2005; Poulin, 2006; van \r\nDijk et al., 2008; van Dijk et al., 2010; Fairweather, 2011; Fox et al., \r\n2011b; Martinez-Valladares et al., 2013; Bosco et al., 2015; Caminade \r\net  al., 2015; Caminade et  al., 2019). These documented changes in \r\nclimate, hosts and pathogens have been linked to a higher incidence \r\nand more frequent outbreaks of disease in livestock across Europe \r\n(very high confidence)."


id: 3e93eb841d025f063e011556ca939b2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8196
content:
"Droughts reduce the aquatic habitat of some mosquito species while \r\nsimultaneously increasing the availability of stagnant standing pools \r\nof water that are ideal breeding habitats for other species, such as \r\ndengue-vector Aedes mosquitoes (medium evidence, medium agree\u0002ment) (Chareonviriyaphap et al., 2003; Chretien et al., 2007; Padman\u0002abha et al., 2010; Trewin et al., 2013; Paz, 2015). Extreme drought has \r\nbeen associated with an increase in bluetongue virus haemorrhagic \r\ndisease in wildlife in eastern North America, although the mechanisms \r\ninvolved were not identified (Christensen et al., 2020). Heat waves in \r\nsome regions, especially coastal regions, have increased parasitism "


id: b829ead9edf5e0f817b122d63fec24c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29615
content:
"Infection by the chytrid fungus, Bd (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis),\r\ncan cause chytridiomycosis in amphibians. Bd is widely distributed \r\nglobally and has caused catastrophic disease in amphibians, associated \r\nwith the decline of 501 species and extinction of a further 90 species, \r\nprimarily in tropical regions of the Americas and Australia (Scheele \r\net al., 2019; Fisher and Garner, 2020). Bd successfully travelled with "


id: 39ad8856855c7bd5c9a4352ce3ade9c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7360
content:
"2016a; Hotez, 2016b; Bett et al., 2017; Mallory and Boyce, 2017; Strutz, \r\n2017; Booth, 2018; Dumic and Severnini, 2018; Carignan et al., 2019; \r\nGorris et al., 2019; Le et al., 2019; Stensgaard et al., 2019b snails and; \r\nBrugueras et al., 2020; Gilbert, 2021)."


id: d947dcb57666434158e00f650f289510
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35526
content:
"high-elevation Andean frog species as they expanded their elevational \r\nranges upward, driven by regional warming, to > 5200 m (Seimon \r\net al., 2017)."


id: be93ae75701da2f6c0667ec725dce7b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30791
content:
"New findings since AR5 from controlled laboratory experiments \r\n(manipulating temperature, humidity and water availability), intensive \r\nanalyses of observed patterns of infection and disease in nature, and \r\nmodelling studies have led to an emerging consensus that interactions \r\nbetween chytrids and amphibians are climate-sensitive, and that the \r\ninteraction of climate change and Bd has driven many of the globally \r\nobserved declines and extinctions of ~90 amphibian species (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Rohr and Raffel, 2010; Puschendorf et al., \r\n2011; Rowley and Alford, 2013; Raffel et al., 2015; Sauer et al., 2018; \r\nCohen et al., 2019a; Sauer et al., 2020; Turner et al., 2021)."


id: ca181eb75cd9a6a14bf8f2605d3e9233
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32888
content:
"At least six major VBDs affected by climate drivers have recently \r\nemerged in Nepal and are now considered endemic, with climate \r\nchange implicated as a primary driver as LULCC has been assessed \r\nto have a minimal influence on these diseases (high confidence) \r\n(Table SM2.1). There is increasing evidence that climate warming has \r\nextended the elevational distribution of Anopheles, Culex and Aedes\r\nmosquito vectors above 2000 m in Nepal (limited evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Dahal, 2008; Dhimal et al., 2014a; Dhimal et al., 2014b; \r\nDhimal et al., 2015), with similar trends being recorded in neighbouring \r\nHimalayan regions (medium evidence, high agreement) (Phuyal \r\net al., 2020; Dhimal et al., 2021). Host animals in novel areas may be \r\nimmunologically naive, and therefore more vulnerable to severe illness \r\n(Bradley et al., 2005; Hall et al., 2016)."


id: 8369c85fbb4d3e6b38f29e670256b045
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20254
content:
"The 'thermal mismatch hypothesis' posits that vulnerability to disease \r\nshould be higher at warm temperatures in cool-adapted species \r\nand higher at cool temperatures in warmth-adapted species and is \r\ngenerally supported (Pounds et al., 2006). However, the most recent \r\nstudies reveal more complex mechanisms underlying amphibian \r\ndisease-climate change dynamics, including variation in thermal \r\npreferences among individuals in a single amphibian population \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Zumbado-Ulate et al., 2014; Sauer \r\net al., 2018; Cohen et al., 2019b; Neely et al., 2020; Sauer et al., 2020)."


id: 29a0b2bdcedd3edae1a3af38d46c4415
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4550
content:
"As species' geographic ranges and migration patterns are modified \r\nby climate change (Section 2.4.2.1, Table 2.2), pathogens accompany \r\nthem. Diverse vectors and associated parasites, pests and pathogens \r\nof plants and animals are being recorded at higher latitudes and \r\nelevations in conjunction with regional temperature increases and \r\nprecipitation changes (robust evidence, high agreement), although \r\nanalysis of realised disease incidence often lacks the inclusion \r\nof non-climatic versus climate drivers, compromising attribution \r\n(Ollerenshaw and Rowlands, 1959; Purse et al., 2005; Laaksonen et al., \r\n2010; van Dijk et al., 2010; Alonso et al., 2011; Genchi et al., 2011; \r\nPinault and Hunter, 2011; Jaenson et al., 2012; Loiseau et al., 2012; \r\nKweka et al., 2013; Medlock et al., 2013; Dhimal et al., 2014a; Dhimal \r\net al., 2014b seasonal; Siraj et al., 2014; Khatchikian et al., 2015; Hotez, "


id: 2b7258d96687f067e5ea63bedc493285
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4895
content:
"Zoonoses and VBDs that have been historically rare or never documented \r\nin the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of Europe, Asia, and North America, \r\nsuch as anthrax, cryptosporidiosis, elaphostrongylosis, filariasis (Huber \r\net al., 2020), tick-borne encephalitis and tularemia (Evander and Ahlm, \r\n2009; Parkinson et  al., 2014; Pauchard et  al., 2016), are spreading \r\npoleward and increasing in incidence, associated with warming \r\ntemperatures (robust evidence, high agreement, very high confidence) \r\n(Table  SM2.1) (Omazic et  al., 2019). Recent anthrax outbreaks and \r\nmass mortality events of humans and reindeer, respectively, have \r\nbeen linked to abnormally hot summer temperatures that caused the \r\npermafrost to melt and exposed diseased animal carcasses, releasing \r\nthawed, highly infectious Bacillus anthracis spores (medium evidence,"


id: 32530d1c57d88e5b0da2f118541b8c2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6114
content:
"Glidden et al., 2021). Known wildlife hosts of human-shared pathogens \r\nand parasites overall comprise a greater proportion of local species \r\nrichness (18-72% higher) and abundance (21-144% higher) at sites \r\nunder substantial human use (agricultural and urban land) compared \r\nwith nearby undisturbed habitats (Gibb et al., 2020)."


id: e0e76d36538ace9688529922f86d9c71
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36831
content:
"medium agreement) (Ezhova et al., 2019; Hueffer et al., 2020; Ezhova \r\net  al., 2021). Multiple contributing factors conspired over different \r\ntimescales to compound a 2016 anthrax outbreak occurring on the \r\nYamal peninsula: (i) rapid permafrost thawing for 5 years preceding the \r\noutbreak, (ii) thick snow cover the year before the outbreak insulated \r\nthe warmed permafrost and kept it from re-freezing, and (iii) anthrax \r\nvaccination rates had decreased or ceased in the region (Ezhova \r\net al., 2019; Ezhova et al., 2021). These precursors converged with an \r\nunusually dry and hot summer that: (i) melted permafrost, creating an \r\nanthrax exposure hazard; (ii) increased the vector insect population; \r\nand (iii) weakened the immune systems of reindeer, thereby increasing \r\ntheir susceptibility (Waits et al., 2018; Hueffer et al., 2020)."


id: 1fa58ad8e45302374f10d33ef3a211ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2781
content:
"Changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and extreme events \r\nhave been associated with more frequent disease outbreaks, increases \r\nin disease incidence and severity, novel diseases and the emergence of \r\nvectors in new areas for wild animals, with a mechanistic understanding \r\nof the roles of these drivers from experimental studies providing high \r\nconfidence for the role of climate change. However, attributing how \r\nthis has impacted human infectious diseases remains difficult, and \r\ndefinitive attribution studies are lacking. The specific role of recent \r\nclimate change is difficult to examine in isolation in most regions where \r\nhuman disease incidence has also been affected by LUC (particularly "


id: 5749120e74dd994caf23e393c58232fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12613
content:
"Anthropogenic impacts, such as disturbances caused by climate \r\nchange, can reduce biodiversity via multiple mechanisms and increase \r\nthe risk of human diseases (limited evidence, low agreement), but more \r\nresearch is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms (Civitello \r\net al., 2015; Young et al., 2017b; Halliday et al., 2020; Rohr et al., 2020; "


id: abc3e3ae22f2f02c006ce76e5424f78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27462
content:
"Climate change is contributing to the spread of diseases in both wildlife and humans. Increased contact between wildlife and human \r\npopulations increases disease risk, and climate change is altering where pathogens that cause diseases and the animals that carry them live. \r\nDisease risk can often be reduced by improving health care and sanitation systems, training the medical community to recognise and treat \r\npotential new diseases in their region, limiting human encroachment into natural areas, limiting wildlife trade and promoting sustainable and \r\nequitable socioeconomic development."


id: 2c4fc472bf17b269ba36e600a20782bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5062
content:
"Diseases transmitted between humans and animals are called zoonoses. Zoonoses comprise nearly two-thirds of \r\nknown human infectious diseases and the majority of newly emerging ones. COVID-19 is the most recent zoonosis \r\nand has killed millions of people globally while devastating economies. The risk posed by Emerging Infectious \r\nDiseases (EIDs) has increased because of: (1) the movement of wild animals and their parasites into new areas as a \r\nresult of climate change, global trade and travel; (2) human intrusion in natural areas and the conversion of natural \r\nareas for agriculture, livestock, the extraction of industrial/raw materials and housing; (3) increased wildlife trade \r\nand consumption; (4) increased human mobility resulting from global trade, war/conflicts and migration, made \r\nfaster and extending farther due to fossil fuel-powered travel; and (5) widespread antimicrobial use, which can \r\npromote antibiotic-resistant infections (Figure FAQ2.2.1)."


id: 4d4ce3214be67103a14c44a63414fb19
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10881
content:
"Figure FAQ2.2.1 |  How diseases move from the wild into human populations. Climate change may increase diseases in nature, but whether or not this \r\nleads to an increase in the risk of disease in humans depends upon a range of societal, infrastructural and medical buffers that form a shield protecting humans."


id: 3235da1cd980cd0d87481d1daf556b12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6090
content:
"Climate change can also have complicated, compounding and contradictory effects on pathogens and vectors. \r\nIncreased rainfall creates more habitat for mosquitoes that transmit diseases like malaria, but too much rain washes \r\naway the habitat. Decreased rainfall also increases disease risk when people without reliable access to water use \r\ncontainers to store water where mosquitoes, such as the vectors of dengue fever Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus, \r\nlay their eggs. Hotter temperatures also increase mosquito-bite rate, parasite development and viral replication! \r\nCertain species of snails are intermediate hosts for many helminth parasites that make humans, livestock and wild \r\nanimals sick. When it gets hot, the snails can produce 2-3 times as many infective larvae; however, if it becomes too \r\nhot, many pathogens and their vectors cannot survive or reproduce."


id: 6d9f05b48dd480fa208dd80126549051
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16546
content:
"Humans also contract zoonoses directly through their skin, mucus membranes and lungs, when eating or butchering \r\nanimals or when they come into contact with pathogens that are shed into the air or passed in urine and faeces and \r\ncontaminate water, food, clothing and other surfaces. Any activity that increases contact with wildlife, especially \r\nin high-biodiversity regions like the Tropics and subtropics, increases disease risk. Climate change-related disease \r\nemergence events are often rare but may become more frequent. Fortunately, there are ways to reduce risks and \r\nprotect our health, as described below."


id: 1926404f4e540188a0ee629d11b630ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1641
content:
"Habitat and biodiversity protection. Human encroachment into natural areas, due to expansion of agriculture and livestock, \r\ntimber harvests, extraction of resources and urban development, has increased human contact with wild animals \r\nand creates more opportunities for disease spill-over (transmission from an animal to a new species, including \r\nhumans). By conserving, protecting and restoring wild habitats, we can build healthier ecosystems that provide \r\nother services, such as clean air, clean and abundant water, recreation, spiritual value and well-being, as well as \r\nreduced disease spill-over. If humans must go into wild areas or hunt, they should take appropriate precautions such \r\nas wearing protective clothing, using insect repellant, performing body checks for vectors like ticks and washing \r\ntheir hands and clothing well."


id: 8a16f9e126510c71756b2c365631d858
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21470
content:
"Food resilience. Investing in sustainable agro-ecological farming will alleviate the pressure to hunt wild animals and \r\nreduce the conversion of more land to agriculture/livestock use. Stopping illegal animal trading and poaching and \r\ndecreasing reliance on wild meats and products made from animal parts will reduce direct contact with potentially \r\ninfected animals. This has the added benefit of increasing food security and nutrition, improving soil, reducing \r\nerosion, preserving biodiversity and mitigating climate change."


id: fc675b05fdf1b91d1db7a7d5d5825265
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41772
content:
"Disease prevention and response. The level of protection against infection is linked directly to the level of development and \r\nwealth of a country. Improved education, high-quality medical and veterinary systems, high food security, proper \r\nsanitation of water and waste, high-quality housing, disease surveillance and alarm systems dramatically reduce \r\ndisease risk and improve health. Utilising a One Biosecurity or One Health framework further improves resilience. \r\nSharing knowledge within communities, municipalities, regionally and between national health authorities \r\nglobally is important to assessing, preventing and responding to outbreaks and pandemics more efficiently and \r\neconomically."


id: ee9fca2532a440fb4d01d13f4256b201
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39361
content:
"Humans are facing many direct and indirect challenges because of climate change. The increase in EIDs is one of our \r\ngreatest challenges, due to our ever-growing interactions with wildlife and climatic changes creating new disease \r\ntransmission patterns. COVID-19 is a current crisis, and follows other recent EIDs: SARS, HIV/AIDS, H1N1 influenza, \r\nEbola, Zika and West Nile fever. EIDs have accelerated in recent decades, making it clear that new societal and \r\nenvironmental approaches to wildlife interactions, climate change and health are urgently needed to protect our \r\ncurrent and future well-being as a species."


id: 50c19fc18355fc2e6f19a434ae6dc124
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11482
content:
"ability (Thomas et al., 2001) and decreased host specialisation (Bridle \r\net al., 2014; Lancaster, 2020) (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: a2bc2f819a3d969ee34e45cd24b2c325
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25847
content:
"Away from range margins, individual populations experiencing \r\nregional warming have evolved diverse traits related to climate \r\nadaptation. For example, pitcher-plant mosquitoes (Wyeomyia smithii) \r\nin Pacific Northwest America have evolved to wait for shorter days \r\nbefore initiating diapause. This adaptation to lengthening summers \r\nenables them to delay overwintering until later and add an extra \r\ngeneration each year (Bradshaw and Holzapfel, 2001). Among 26 \r\npopulations of Drosophila subobscura studied on three continents, 22 \r\nexperienced climate warming across two or more decades, and 21 of \r\nthese 22 showed increasing frequency of the chromosome inversion \r\ncharacteristic of populations adapted to hot climates (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Balanya et al., 2006)."


id: 2178169be2e5f71da8583b723661cd6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3096
content:
"However, for populations already at their warm range limits, their \r\nability to track climate change in situ would require evolving to survive \r\nand reproduce outside their species' historical climate envelope: \r\nabilities of wild species to do this is not supported by experimental \r\nor observational evidence (medium evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Singer, 2017). Whether or not they can depends on the level of 'niche \r\nconservatism' operating at the species level (Lavergne et al., 2010). \r\nIf a species whose range limits are determined by climate finds itself \r\ncompletely outside of its traditional climate envelope, extinction is \r\nexpected in the absence of 'evolutionary rescue' (Bell and Gonzalez, \r\n2009; Bell et al., 2019)."


id: 23ff8c656877b0dcd9cc11cd4a5598cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3512
content:
"To investigate the evolutionary potential of a species to survive in \r\na novel climate entirely outside its traditional climate envelope, \r\nexperiments have been carried out on ectotherms testing thermal \r\nperformance, thermal tolerance and their evolvabilities (Castaneda \r\net al., 2019; Xue et al., 2019). Tests of thermal performance have been \r\ncomplicated, as both long-term acclimation and trans-generational \r\neffects occur (Sgro et  al., 2016). However, the results to date have \r\nbeen consistent: despite widespread local adaptation to climate across \r\nspecies' ranges, substantial constraints exist regarding the evolution of \r\ngreater stress tolerance (e.g., high temperatures and drought) at warm \r\nrange limits (medium evidence, high agreement) (Hoffmann and Sgro, \r\n2011; MacLean et al., 2019b)."


id: 915ee1048b3518858bf5a98460fb7a63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22782
content:
"In the absence of evolutionary constraints, climate debts can be \r\ncancelled by genetically based increases in thermal tolerance and the \r\nability to perform in high ambient temperatures. In species already \r\nshowing local adaptation to climate, populations currently living at \r\nrelatively cool sites should be able to evolve to adopt the traits of \r\npopulations currently at warmer sites as their local experience of \r\nclimate changes (Singer, 2017; Socolar et al., 2017)."


id: 15bed1b0be1c2d907b9bbbf371d7f939
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1045
content:
"For example, as temperature was experimentally increased, the amount \r\nof genetic variance in the fitness of Drosophila melanogaster decreased; \r\nin hot environments, flies had low evolvability (Kristensen et al., 2015). \r\nThe hypothesis that heat-stress tolerance is evolutionarily constrained \r\nis further supported by experiments in which 22 Drosophila spp. drawn \r\nfrom tropical and temperate climes were subjected to extremes of heat \r\nand cold. They differed, as expected, in cold tolerances, but not in heat \r\ntolerances nor in temperatures at which optimal performances were \r\nobserved (MacLean et al., 2019b)."


id: 9619257e7c9734109d94eb2877f23f93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23601
content:
"An increasing number of studies document evolutionary responses to \r\nclimate change in populations not at their warm range limits (Franks \r\nand Hoffmann, 2012). Organisms with short generation times should \r\nhave a higher capacity to genetically track climate change than species \r\nwith long generation times, such as mammals (Boutin and Lane, 2014). \r\nIndeed, observed evolutionary impacts have been mainly documented \r\nin insects, especially at expanding range margins (Chuang and \r\nPeterson, 2016) where evolutionary changes have increased dispersal "


id: 4a92d1da3652b47392a8d01c4a6d427a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10358
content:
"Plasticity (flexibility) in acclimating to thermal regimes helps organisms \r\nadapt to environmental change. The form and extent of plasticity can \r\nvary among populations experiencing different climates (Kelly, 2019) \r\nand generate phenotypic values outside the prior range for the species, \r\nbut plasticity itself has not yet been observed to evolve in response to \r\nclimate change (Kelly, 2019)."


id: 3bb341d61e93ca18d7b0b14015d27c3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7686
content:
"Relevant genetic changes in nature (e.g., affecting heat tolerance) have \r\nnot yet been shown to alter the boundaries of existing genetic variation \r\nfor any species. Further, a recent global analysis of 91 species found, \r\non average, a 5.4-6.5% decline in genetic diversity within populations \r\nsince the start of the Industrial Revolution, with much larger declines \r\nfor island species (27.6-30.9% reductions) (Leigh et  al., 2019). In \r\nLeigh et al. (2019), genetic declines were documented in both common \r\nand already endangered species of fish, mammals, birds, insects, \r\namphibians and reptiles. These declines in genetic diversity, though \r\nnot caused by climate change, decrease the abilities of wild species \r\nto adapt to climate change via evolutionary responses. Evolutionary \r\nrescue of entire species has not yet been observed in nature, nor is \r\nit expected, based on experimental and theoretical studies (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: 57ec65f9da8b977931e08b8229695dda
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12731
content:
"Hybridisation between closely related species has increased in recent \r\ndecades as one species shifts its range boundaries and positions itself \r\nmore closely to the other. Hybrids between polar bears and brown \r\nbears have been documented in northern Canada (Kelly et al., 2010). \r\nIn North American rivers, hybridisation between invasive rainbow trout \r\nand native cutthroat trout has increased in frequency as the rainbow \r\ntrout has expanded into warming waters (Muhlfeld et  al., 2014). \r\nWhether climate-changed induced hybridisations can generate novel \r\nclimate adaptations remains to be seen."


id: c3cb034aacd6c0736b6e074952809d0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31720
content:
"In summary, with our present knowledge, evolution is not expected to be \r\nsufficient to prevent the extinction of whole species if a species' climate \r\nspace disappears within the region they inhabit (high confidence)."


id: 32ad98c686ba9d50e8d0173cbac52f91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6182
content:
"AR5 and a meta-analysis found that vegetation at the biome level \r\nshifted poleward latitudinally and upward altitudinally due to \r\nanthropogenic climate change in at least 19 sites in boreal, temperate \r\nand tropical ecosystems from 1700 to 2007 (Gonzalez et  al., 2010; \r\nSettele et  al., 2014). In these areas, temperature increased to \r\n0.4degC-1.6degC above the pre-industrial period (Gonzalez et  al., 2010; \r\nSettele et al., 2014). Field research since the AR5 detected additional \r\npoleward and upslope biome shifts over periods of 24-210 years at \r\nnumerous sites (described below), but were not directly attributed to \r\nanthropogenic climate change as the studies were not designed or \r\nconducted properly for full attribution assessment."


id: 2c2d282e92f1900e36daa710cdac5f55
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5029
content:
"Attribution for biome (major vegetation form of an ecosystem) shifts \r\nis complex because of their extensive, sometimes continental, spatial \r\nscale (Whittaker, 1975; Olson et  al., 2001; Woodward et  al., 2004). \r\nTherefore, non-climatic factors strongly influence biome spatial \r\ndistributions (Ellis and Ramankutty, 2008)."


id: 8293e515bb979903247354af1b4d5bd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20099
content:
"The most robust attribution studies use data from many species, \r\nindividual locations with minimal confounding factors, particularly \r\nobserved recent LULCC, and scale up by analysing multiple locations \r\nacross a large zone between biomes, providing multiple lines of \r\nevidence (Hegerl et  al., 2010; Parmesan et  al., 2013). Multivariate \r\nstatistical analyses aid attribution studies by allowing the assessment \r\nof relative weights among multiple factors, including variables related \r\nto climate change (Gonzalez et  al., 2012). However, drivers often \r\nhave strong, significant interactions with one another, complicating \r\nquantitative assessment of the strength of individual drivers (Parmesan \r\net al., 2013). In these cases, manipulative experiments are critical in \r\nassessing attribution to the drivers of climate change."


id: 1875c8d68b5f8336c60e626ada6b991b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1518
content:
"Many of the recently detected shifts are nevertheless consistent \r\nwith climate change-induced temperature increases and observed in \r\nareas without agriculture, livestock grazing, timber harvesting and \r\nother anthropogenic land uses. For example, in the Andes Mountains \r\nin Ecuador, a biome shift was detected by comparing a survey by \r\nAlexander von Humboldt in 1802 to a re-survey in 2012, making this \r\nthe longest time span in the world for this type of data (Morueta-Holme \r\net al., 2015; Moret et al., 2019). Over 210 years, temperature increased \r\nby 1.7degC (Morueta-Holme et al., 2015) and the upper edge of alpine \r\ngrassland shifted 100-450 m upslope (Moret et al., 2019)."


id: 757073eb6967119ad9d104721c4c0e8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17891
content:
"Other biome shifts consistent with climate change and not substantially \r\naffected by local land use include: northward shifts in Canada of \r\ndeciduous forest into boreal conifer forest, 5 km from 1970-2012 (Sittaro \r\net al., 2017) and 20 km from 1970-2014 (Boisvert-Marsh et al., 2019) "


id: fbe1113ce7c8ce1999678f3d59fa2eec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41678
content:
"Certain biomes exhibit a relatively stronger relationship to climate; for \r\nexample, Arctic tundra generally has a distinct ecotone with boreal \r\nconifer forest (Whittaker, 1975). In these areas, attribution of biome "


id: fe4a1c3cefe3f515db4a957c1d995412
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42106
content:
"change in savannas is not correlated with mean annual temperature \r\nchange (Criado et  al., 2020); however, higher atmospheric CO2\r\nincreases shrub growth in savannas (Nackley et al., 2018; Manea and \r\nLeishman, 2019). A global remote-sensing analysis of biome changes \r\nfrom all causes, including agricultural and grazing expansion and \r\ndeforestation, estimated that 14% of pixels changed between 1981 \r\nand 2012, although this approach can overestimate global changes, \r\nsince it uses a new biome classification system which doubles the \r\nconventional biome classifications (Higgins et al., 2016). In addition to \r\nclimate change, LULCC causes vegetation changes at the biome level \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: bc534703326082efe958941f6666c149
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30379
content:
"and of temperate conifer into boreal conifer forest, 21 km from 1970-\r\n2015 (Boisvert-Marsh and de Blois, 2021). Research detected upslope \r\nshifts of boreal and sub-alpine conifer forest into alpine grassland at 143 \r\nsites on four continents (41 m from 1901-2018) (Lu et al., 2021) and at \r\nindividual sites in Canada (54 m from 1900-2010) (Davis et al., 2020); \r\nChina (300 m from 1910-2000) (Liang et al., 2016) (33 m from 1985-\r\n2014) (Du et  al., 2018); Nepal (50 m from 1860-2000) (Sigdel et  al., \r\n2018); Russia (150 m from 1954-2006) (Gatti et al., 2019); and the USA \r\n(19 m from 1950-2016) (Smithers et al., 2018) (38 m from 1953-2015) \r\n(Terskaia et al., 2020). Other upslope cases include shifts of temperate \r\nconifer forest in Canada (Jackson et al., 2016) and the USA (Lubetkin \r\net al., 2017), temperate deciduous forest in Switzerland (Rigling et al., \r\n2013) and temperate shrubland in the USA (Donato et al., 2016)."


id: 3a097360436187739f56c66425a112f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7423
content:
"Divergent responses to anthropogenic climate change are occurring \r\nwithin and across arid regions, depending on time period, location, \r\ndetection methodology and vegetation type (see Cross-Chapter Paper \r\n3). Emerging shifts in ecosystem structure, functioning and biodiversity \r\nare supported by evidence from modelled impacts of projected climate \r\nand CO2 levels. While observed responsiveness of arid vegetation \r\nproductivity to rising atmospheric CO2 (Fensholt et  al., 2012) may \r\noffset risks from reduced water availability (Fang et al., 2017), climate\u0002and CO2-driven changes are key risks in arid regions, interacting with \r\nhabitat degradation, wildfires and invasive species (Hurlbert et  al., \r\n2019)."


id: 844ea66209cc13bd22be2923d401f939
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20429
content:
"In summary, anthropogenic climate change caused latitudinal and \r\nelevational biome shifts in at least 19 sites in boreal, temperate and \r\ntropical ecosystems between 1700 and 2007, where temperature \r\nincreased to 0.4degC-1.6degC above the pre-industrial period (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement). Additional cases of 5-20 km northward \r\nand 20-300 m upslope biome shifts between 1860 and 2016, under \r\na mean global temperature increase of approximately 0.9degC above \r\nthe pre-industrial period, are consistent with climate change (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: 431dd7c62fb360e01095eb688a3cbd4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9015
content:
"Research has detected biome shifts in areas where agriculture, fire \r\nuse or suppression, livestock grazing, harvesting of timber and wood \r\nfor fuel and other local land use substantially altered vegetation, in \r\naddition to changes in climatic factors and CO2 fertilisation. These \r\nstudies were not designed or conducted in a manner to make climate \r\nchange attribution possible, although many vegetation changes \r\nare consistent with climate change. For example, a global review of \r\nobserved changes in tree lines found that, globally, two-thirds of tree \r\nlines have shifted upslope in elevation over the past 50 years or more, \r\n((Hansson et al., 2021)."


id: f72b763e218e5d4c7edea116f420c8f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40861
content:
"Upslope and poleward forest shifts have occurred where timber \r\nharvesting or livestock grazing has been abandoned, allowing the \r\nregeneration of trees at sites in Canada (Brice et al., 2019; Wang et al., \r\n2020b), France (Feuillet et al., 2020), Italy (Vitali et al., 2017), Spain \r\n(Ameztegui et al., 2016) and the USA (Wang et al., 2020b) as well as \r\nin mountainous areas across Europe (Cudlin et al., 2017). Intentional \r\nuse of fire drove an upslope forest shift in Peru (Bush et  al., 2015) \r\nwhile mainly human-ignited fires drove the conversion of shrubland \r\nto grassland in a drought-affected area of the USA (Syphard et  al., \r\n2019b). In eastern Canada, timber harvesting and wildfire drove the \r\nconversion of mixed conifer-broadleaf forests to broadleaf-dominated \r\nforests (Brice et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020b)."


id: b6e25a5c4ed53d620f971557567a9c15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29377
content:
"Non-native grasses are invading the sagebrush steppes (cold deserts) \r\nin North America (Chambers et  al., 2014) attributed to warming \r\n(Bradley et  al., 2016; Hufft and Zelikova, 2016). In the eastern \r\nsemi-desert (Karoo) of South Africa, annual rainfall increases and a \r\nrainfall seasonality shift (du Toit and O'Connor, 2014) are increasing \r\ngrassiness as arid grasslands expand into semi-desert shrublands (du \r\nToit et al., 2015; Masubelele et al., 2015b; Masubelele et al., 2015a) \r\ncausing fire in areas seldom burned historically (Coates et al., 2016)."


id: 5987afa3c9745771f36d9c1e5f9c88a2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12986
content:
"Shrub encroachment onto savanna has occurred at numerous sites, \r\nparticularly across the Southern Hemisphere, mainly between 1992 \r\nand 2010 (Criado et al., 2020). Globally, overgrazing initiates shrub \r\nencroachment by reducing grasses more than woody plants, while fire \r\nexclusion maintains the shrub cover (D'Odorico et al., 2012; Caracciolo \r\net al., 2016; Bestelmeyer et al., 2018). The magnitude of woody cover "


id: d105f53f63a43c191ec4fbf9756b9c86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34128
content:
"conifer species (Pinus longaeva and P. flexilis) shifted upslope 19 m from \r\n1950 to 2016 in the Great Basin, USA, (Smithers et al., 2018). Reduced \r\nwinter precipitation caused native annual forbs to recede, resulting in \r\nlong-lasting and potentially unidirectional reductions in diversity in a \r\nCalifornian grassland (Harrison et al., 2018). More frequent extreme hot \r\nand dry weather between 1966 and 2010 caused a decline in diversity \r\nduring the post-fire regeneration phase in the Fynbos of South Africa \r\n(Slingsby et al., 2017), resulting in shifts towards species with higher \r\ntemperature preferences (Slingsby et  al., 2017). In Italy, Del Vecchio \r\net al. (2015) observed increases in plant cover and thermophilic species \r\nin coastal foredune habitats between 1989 and 2012."


id: 62dc623c6a66c11a7c0e383aafc8e12f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14691
content:
"Interactions of drought, warming and land management have caused \r\nvegetation mortality (see Section 2.4.4.3) and reduced vegetation cover \r\nin shrublands, as projected by AR4 (Burrell et al., 2020). Increased heat \r\nand drought are causing the health and abundance of succulent species \r\nto decline (Musil et al., 2009; Schmiedel et al., 2012; Aragon-Gastelum \r\net al., 2014; Kozminska et al., 2019). Hot droughts, in particular, have \r\nbeen shown to reduce population resilience (Kozminska et al., 2019)."


id: 5bbaaf51f041feb458ef148f7d261ed7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13395
content:
"Since AR5 (Settele et al. (2014), all five Mediterranean-type ecosystems \r\n(MTEs) of the world have experienced extreme droughts within the \r\npast decade, with South Africa and California reporting their worst on \r\nrecord (robust evidence, high agreement) (Diffenbaugh et  al., 2015; \r\nWilliams et al., 2015a; Garreaud et al., 2017; Otto et al., 2018; Sousa \r\net  al., 2018). Climate change is causing these droughts to become \r\nmore frequent and severe (medium evidence, medium agreement) \r\n(AghaKouchak et al., 2014; Garreaud et al., 2017; Otto et al., 2018; \r\nSeneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: eb8ba5111c7d735b74399789852a04bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38806
content:
"In southern California, USA, areas of forest and woody shrublands are \r\nshifting to grasslands, driven by a combination of climate and land use \r\nfactors such as increased drought, fire ignition frequency and increases \r\nin nitrogen deposition (robust evidence, high agreement) (Jacobsen \r\nand Pratt, 2018; Park et al., 2018; Park and Jenerette, 2019; Syphard \r\net al., 2019b)."


id: fa1ed0832c5deaee7013f8b46f36cacf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41375
content:
"The effects of climate change on heat, fuel and wildfire ignition limits \r\nshow spatial and temporal variation globally (see Section  2.3.6.1), \r\nbut there have been a number of observed impacts on MTEs (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement). Climate change caused increases in fuel \r\naridity and the area of land burned by wildfires across the western \r\nUSA from 1985 to 2015 (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016). Local and \r\nglobal climatic variability led to a 4-year decrease in the average fire \r\nreturn time in the Fynbos, South Africa, when comparing fires recorded \r\nin 1951-1975 and 1976-2000 (Wilson et al., 2010). In Chile, Gonzalez \r\net al. (2018) reported a significant increase in the number, size, duration \r\nand simultaneity of large fires during the 2010-2015 'megadrought' \r\nwhen compared to the 1990-2009 baseline."


id: c0f272cf8234d121fe8f49c7ef3dd406
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31250
content:
"MTEs show a range of direct responses to various forms of water \r\ndeficit, but have also been affected by increasing fire activity linked \r\nto drought (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016), and interactions between \r\ndrought or extreme weather and fire affecting post-fire ecosystem \r\nrecovery (Slingsby et al., 2017). Responses include shifts in functional \r\ncomposition (Acacio et  al., 2017; Syphard et  al., 2019a), decline of \r\nvegetation health (Hope et al., 2014; Asner et al., 2016a), decline or \r\nloss of characteristic species (White et  al., 2016; Stephenson et  al., \r\n2019), shifts in composition towards more drought- or heat-adapted \r\nspecies and declining diversity (see also section 2.4.4.3) (Slingsby \r\net al., 2017.; Harrison et al., 2018)."


id: 468d331b490c088fe66e6e4e7228cbef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9620
content:
"New studies since AR5, using multiple study designs (experimental \r\nmanipulations in lab and field, meta-analyses and modelling), attribute \r\nclimate change increases in woody cover to elevated atmospheric \r\nCO2 (Donohue et  al., 2013; Nackley et  al., 2018; Quirk et  al., 2019) \r\nand increased rainfall amount and intensity (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Venter et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2018b; Zhang et al., 2019a). "


id: a104df961303105202cf3e25c7f800c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25552
content:
"Species distribution or community composition changes have \r\ncontributed to declines in diversity and/or shifts towards more drought\u0002or heat-adapted species (medium evidence, high agreement). Two "


id: aaeb1f21a8adf8ef91518b8e1cb9240d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27293
content:
"to warming and drought are being ameliorated by increasing CO2\r\nand associated improved water-use efficiency (Roy et al., 2016). For \r\nexample, in a cool temperate grassland experiment, warming led to a \r\nlonger growing season and elevated CO2 further extended growing by \r\nconserving water, which enabled most species to remain active longer \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement) (Reyes-Fox et al., 2014)."


id: 6f4cea394560e452278787e47341fc5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16843
content:
"Direct quantification of climate-change drivers is confounded with \r\nlocal LUC such as fire suppression (Archibald, 2016; Venter et  al., \r\n2018), heavy grazing (du Toit and O'Connor, 2014; Archer et al., 2017), \r\nremoval of native browsers and, specifically, loss of mega-herbivores \r\nin Africa (medium evidence, medium agreement) (Asner et al., 2016b; \r\nDaskin et  al., 2016; Stevens et  al., 2016; Davies et  al., 2018). The \r\nrelative importance of the climate- and non-climate-related causes of \r\nwoody plants varies between regions, but there is general consensus \r\nthat the impacts of climate change, specifically, increasing rainfall and \r\nrising CO2, are frequent and strong contributing factors of woody-cover \r\nincrease (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 7ba357cac5e007b5d19fd2c393bfa77d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18964
content:
"Overall declines of tropical forest cover (Kohl et al., 2015; Liu et al., \r\n2015; Baccini et al., 2017; Harris et al., 2021), with declines more than \r\ntriple the gains (Harris et  al., 2021) have been driven primarily by \r\ndeforestation and land conversion (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Lewis et al., 2015; Curtis et al., 2018; Assis et al., 2019). In opposition \r\nto this general trend, expansion of tropical forest cover into savannas \r\nand grasslands has occurred in Africa, South America and Australia \r\n(Marimon et al., 2014; Baccini et al., 2017; Ondei et al., 2017; Stevens \r\net al., 2017; Aleman et al., 2018; Staver, 2018; Rosan et al., 2019)."


id: 62826724f9ef619560292141844c6b00
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14619
content:
"Extensive woody-cover increases in non-forested biomes is reducing \r\ngrazing potential (Smit and Prins, 2015) as well as changing the \r\ncarbon stored per unit of land area (Gonzalez-Roglich et  al., 2014; \r\nPuttock et  al., 2014; Pellegrini et  al., 2016; Mureva et  al., 2018) \r\nand the hydrological characteristics (Honda and Durigan, 2016; \r\nSchreiner-McGraw et  al., 2020). Woody-cover encroachment also \r\nreduces biodiversity by threatening fauna and flora adapted to open \r\necosystems (Ratajczak et  al., 2012; Smit and Prins, 2015; Pellegrini \r\net al., 2016; Andersen and Steidl, 2019)."


id: b974a1c7c96c5f607f64656fc3141165
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29841
content:
"Increases in productivity of tropical forests (Gatti et al., 2014; Brienen \r\net al., 2015; Baccini et al., 2017), Africa and southeast Asia (Qie et al., \r\n2017) have been attributed to elevated CO2 (robust evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Ballantyne et al., 2012; Brienen et al., 2015; Sitch et al., \r\n2015; Yang et al., 2016; Mitchard, 2018). The rates of these increases \r\nhave been slowing down in the central Amazon (Brienen et al., 2015; \r\nde Meira Junior et al., 2020) and Southeast Asia (Qie et al., 2017). In \r\ncontrast, the carbon sink (and hence the rate of biomass gain) in intact \r\nAfrican forests was stable until 2010 and has only recently started to \r\ndecline, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation in Amazonia \r\nand Africa, the difference being driven by rates of tree mortality \r\n(Hubau et al., 2020). At the global level, Hubau et al. (2020) argue that \r\nthe carbon sink associated with intact tropical forests peaked in the \r\n1990s and is now in decline."


id: 54f89ea3c9ff13f32284878aede17335
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12220
content:
"Remote sensing shows overall increasing trends in both the annual \r\nmaximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and annual \r\nmean NDVI in global grassland ecosystems between 1982 and 2011 \r\n(Gao et al., 2016). Multiple lines of evidence indicate that changes in \r\ngrassland productivity are positively correlated with increases in mean \r\nannual precipitation (Hoover et al., 2014; Brookshire and Weaver, 2015; \r\nGang et al., 2015; Gao et al., 2016; Wilcox et al., 2017; Wan et al., 2018). \r\nIncreasing temperatures positively impact grassland production and \r\nbiomass, especially in temperature-limited regions (Piao et al., 2014; \r\nGao et al., 2016). However, it is expected that grasslands in hot areas \r\nwill decrease production as temperatures increase (limited evidence, \r\nlow agreement) (Gang et al., 2015). Nevertheless, grassland responses "


id: 224e2c88753509e564873ea25f73e20e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3254
content:
"Declines in productivity are most strongly associated with warming \r\n(Sullivan et al., 2020), reduced growth rates during droughts (Bennett \r\net al., 2015; Bonai et al., 2016; Corlett, 2016), drought-related mortality \r\n(Brando et al., 2014; Zhou et al., 2014; Brienen et al., 2015; Corlett, \r\n2016; McDowell et al., 2018), fire (Liu et al., 2017) and cloud-induced "


id: b71b09104aa20b74b22b803124e0d8f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29425
content:
"at a global mean surface temperature (GMST) increase of 0.9degC above \r\nthe pre-industrial period (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 4fda8ed68b066b82fc9ac3ea7b169bd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11344
content:
"radiation limitation (robust evidence, high agreement) (Deb Burman \r\net al., 2020). Increases in the frequency and severity of droughts and \r\nshorter tree residence times due to increases in growth rates caused \r\nby elevated CO2 may be additional interactive factors increasing tree \r\nmortality (Malhi et  al., 2014; Brienen et  al., 2015). Vulnerability to \r\ndrought varies between tree species and sizes, with large, older trees \r\nat the highest risk of mortality (McDowell et al., 2018; Meakem et al., \r\n2018). Mortality risk also varies between forest types, with seasonal \r\nrainforests appearing to be the most vulnerable to drought (Corlett, \r\n2016)."


id: 5bf127d20232540fe3aebfa9317b2b99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13436
content:
"Other changes detected in boreal forests and consistent with, but not \r\nformally attributed to, climate change, include increased wildfire in \r\nSiberia (Section 2.4.4.2.3), long-lasting smouldering below-ground fires \r\nin Canada and the USA (Scholten et al., 2021), tree mortality in Europe \r\n(Section 2.4.4.3.3) and post-fire shifts of boreal conifer to deciduous \r\nbroadleaf tree species in Alaska (Mack et  al., 2021). From 1930 to \r\n1960, boreal forest growth became limited more by precipitation than \r\ntemperature in the Northern Hemisphere (Babst et al., 2019)."


id: e05e0b5542e62a2a9e3807c876babab1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36726
content:
"Lianas (long-stemmed woody vines) generally negatively impact trees, \r\nsignificantly reducing the growth of heavily infested trees (Reis et al., \r\n2020). Lianas would benefit from climate change and disturbance \r\n(LingZi et al., 2014; Hodgkins et al., 2018). The extent of their suitable \r\nniche can increase (Taylor and Kumar, 2016), thereby decreasing forest \r\nbiomass accumulation (robust evidence, high agreement) (van der \r\nHeijden et al., 2013; Fauset et al., 2015; Estrada-Villegas et al., 2020)."


id: a4e99e1ba4eee3436bcbd8fec03f2f2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26233
content:
"For some vegetation, changes in land use and management have \r\nexerted more influence than climate change. These include upslope \r\nand poleward forest shifts in Europe following the abandonment of \r\ntimber harvesting or livestock grazing (Section  2.4.3.2.2), changes \r\nin wildfire in Europe affected by fire suppression, fire prevention \r\nand agricultural abandonment (Section 2.4.4.2.3), and forest species \r\ncomposition changes in Scotland due to nitrogen deposition from air \r\npollution (Hester et al., 2019). Remote sensing suggests that the area \r\nof temperate and boreal forests increased in Asia and Europe between \r\n1982 and 2016 (Song et al., 2018) and in Canada between 1984 and \r\n2015 (Guindon et al., 2018), but forest plantations and regrowth are \r\nprobable drivers (Song et al., 2018)."


id: 11e0c4e023d1f2520555843a7f37e705
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 338
content:
"The switch from carbon sink to carbon source in peatlands globally is \r\nmainly attributable to changes in the depth of the water table, regardless \r\nof management or status (robust evidence, high agreement) (Lafleur \r\net al., 2005; Dommain et al., 2011; Lund et al., 2012; Cobb et al., 2017; \r\nEvans et al., 2021; Novita et al., 2021). Across the temperate and tropical \r\nbiomes, extensive drainage and deforestation have caused widespread \r\nwater table draw-downs and/or peat subsidence, as well as high CO2"


id: c02f7d7c0a10686924b601737c3d1955
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31112
content:
"Elberling et  al., 2013; Matveev et  al., 2016; Euskirchen et  al., 2020; \r\nHugelius et al., 2020). Conversely, some evidence suggests increased \r\npeat accumulation after thaw (Jones et al., 2013; Estop-Aragones et al., \r\n2018; Valiranta et al., 2021). There is also a need to consider the impact \r\nof wildfire on permafrost thaw, due to its effect on soil temperature \r\nregime (Gibson et  al., 2018), as fire intensity and frequency have \r\nincreased across the boreal and Arctic biomes (limited evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Kasischke et al., 2010; Scholten et al., 2021)."


id: cb0aaeae1d19595cf28f3b74633d76a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33063
content:
"(Weyhenmeyer et  al., 2016), watershed type (de Wit et  al., 2016) \r\nand the length of the food chain (Hansson et al., 2013). Quantitative \r\nattribution of browning to climate change remains difficult (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement)."


id: 126d951e855586860ef5b85030f6a4f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 442
content:
"In addition to direct warming, indirect effects of climate change, first \r\nfound in AR4 and AR5, continue, such as thawed permafrost, altered \r\nhydrology and enhanced nutrient cycling, and these processes are \r\ncausing pronounced vegetation changes (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Schuur et  al., 2009; Natali et  al., 2012). Soil moisture \r\nstatus influences temperature sensitivity of plant growth and canopy \r\nheights (Myers-Smith et  al., 2015; Ackerman et  al., 2017; Bjorkman \r\net al., 2018). In tundra ecosystems, permafrost thawing can decouple \r\nbelow-ground plant growth dynamics from above-ground dynamics, \r\nwith below-ground root growth continuing until soils re-freeze in \r\nautumn (Cross-Chapter Paper 6) (Iversen et  al., 2015; Blume-Werry \r\net al., 2016; Radville et al., 2016)."


id: 6e52466e0499a56ecb785764a4e977b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16676
content:
"In summary, new studies since AR5 have explicitly estimated the \r\neffects of warming and browning on freshwaters in boreal areas, with \r\ncomplex positive and negative repercussions on water temperature \r\nprofiles (lower vs. upper water) (high confidence) and primary \r\nproduction (medium confidence)."


id: 1118dcbee53c824fd3d908526d81bc5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 202
content:
"In boreal coniferous areas, there has been an increase in the \r\ntransporting of terrestrial-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into \r\nrivers and lakes, which has caused increased opacity and a shift toward \r\na brown colour (browning). There was little assessment of this in AR5. \r\nThis process is driven by climate change, and stems from hydrological \r\nintensification, greening of the Northern Hemisphere and degradation \r\nof carbon sinks in peatlands (robust evidence, high agreement) \r\n(Solomon et al., 2015; Catalan et al., 2016; de Wit et al., 2016; Finstad \r\net  al., 2016; Creed et  al., 2018; Hayden et  al., 2019). These factors \r\nenhance terrestrial productivity, alter vegetation communities and \r\naffect the hydrological control of the production and transport of DOC \r\n(Weyhenmeyer et al., 2016). Non-climate-related drivers of browning \r\nare: declining atmospheric sulphur deposition, forestry practices and \r\nLULCCs (see Table SM2.1 for detail)."


id: f1b0d90b49f5e263b2cb3984e88b009e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39905
content:
"Browning creates a positive feedback to climate by absorbing photo\u0002synthetically active radiation, which accelerates upper water (epil\u0002imnetic) warming (Solomon et al., 2015). Browning of lakes leads to \r\nshallower and more stable thermoclines, and thus overall deep water \r\ncooling (Solomon et al., 2015; Williamson et al., 2015), and can pro\u0002voke a transition of the seasonal mixing regime from a mixed lake \r\n(polymictic) to one that is seasonally stratified (Kirillin and Shatwell, \r\n2016)."


id: 36b8857c6f1b5569fb44872a3dcffec6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6854
content:
"The ecological responses of browning are a concomitant effect of climate \r\nchange and nutrient status. Results from long-term, large-scale lake \r\nexperiments have been variable, showing both strong synergistic effects \r\n(Urrutia-Cordero et  al., 2016) and no significant effects of browning \r\non plankton community food webs (Rasconi et  al., 2015). Browning \r\nhas driven a shift from auto- to heterotrophic/mixotrophic-based \r\nproduction (Urrutia-Cordero et  al., 2017) and supports heterotrophic \r\nmetabolism of the bacterial community (Zwart et al., 2016). Browning \r\nmay also accelerate primary production through the input of nutrients \r\nassociated with dissolved organic matter (DOM) in nutrient-poor lakes \r\nand increase cyanobacteria, which cope better with low light intensities \r\n(Huisman et al., 2018) and toxin levels (Urrutia-Cordero et al., 2016). \r\nHowever, the synergistic impacts of browning and climate change \r\non aquatic communities depends on regional precipitation patterns "


id: 622d6a23d3dce1ed5199bb3ec9fc272d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14547
content:
"in the 1950-2017 record, seven to eleven times the area that would \r\nhave burned without climate change (Kirchmeier-Young et al., 2019). \r\nIn Alaska, USA, the high maximum temperatures and extremely low \r\nrelative humidity due to anthropogenic climate change accounted for \r\n33-60% of the probability of wildfire in 2015, when the area burned \r\nwas the second highest in the 1940-2015 record (Partain et al., 2016). \r\nIn protected areas of Canada and the USA, climate factors (temperature, \r\nprecipitation, relative humidity and evapotranspiration) accounted for \r\n60% of burned area from local human and natural ignitions from 1984 \r\nto 2014, outweighing local human factors (population density, roads \r\nand built area) (Mansuy et al., 2019)."


id: d92ef41e418867819da0310d018aa566
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35504
content:
"2019). Furthermore, much of the decreasing trend derives from two \r\nyears: 1998 with a high burned area and 2013 with low burned area \r\n(Forkel et al., 2019). Wildfire does not show a clear long-term trend for \r\nthe world as a whole because of increases and decreases in different \r\nregions (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 555e0182270ca0b071294124e2f4532c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12296
content:
"In summary, field evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change \r\nhas increased the area burned by wildfire above natural levels across \r\nwestern North America in the period 1984-2017, at GMST increases \r\nof 0.6degC-0.9degC, increasing burned area up to 11 times in one extreme \r\nyear and doubling it (over natural levels) in a 32-year period (high \r\nconfidence)."


id: a89d7ff414c7cb0aeb6f851e604b69a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26873
content:
"While burned area has increased in parts of Asia, Australia, Europe and \r\nSouth America, published research has not yet attributed the increases \r\nto anthropogenic climate change (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: b95778a58cd715606509332ddc8516bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29820
content:
"In the Amazon, deforestation for agricultural expansion and the \r\ndegradation of forests adjacent to deforested areas cause wildfire \r\nin moist humid tropical forests not adapted to fire (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement) (Fonseca et  al., 2017; van Marle et  al., 2017; da "


id: 3677ff7efe4ccd811a3e98e5a0a13b25
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6820
content:
"In Africa, the rate of change of burned area on the continent as a \r\nwhole ranged from a non-statistically significant -0.45% yr-1 in the \r\nperiod 2002-2016 (Zubkova et al., 2019) to a significant -1.9% yr-1\r\nin the period 2001-2016 (Wei et al., 2020). These decreases coincided \r\nwith areas of agricultural expansion or areas where drought reduced \r\nfuel loads (Zubkova et  al., 2019; Wei et  al., 2020). It is possible, \r\nhowever, that the 500-m spatial resolution of Modis remote-sensing \r\nfire data underestimates the area burned in Africa by half, by missing \r\nsmall fires (Ramo et al., 2021). In the Serengeti-Mara savanna of east \r\nAfrica, burned area showed no significant change from 2001 to 2014, \r\nalthough an increase in domestic livestock would tend to reduce the \r\ngrass cover that fuels savanna fires (Probert et al., 2019)."


id: 9e90306c8146bdcf91579a0d1e3741e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25123
content:
"In Mediterranean Europe, the area burned in the region as a whole \r\ndecreased from 1985 to 2011 (Turco et al., 2016), although the burned \r\narea for Spain did not show a significant long-term increase from 1968 \r\nto 2010 (Moreno et al., 2014) whereas that for Portugal in 2017 was \r\nthe highest in the period 1980-2017 (Turco et  al., 2019). Increased \r\nsummer maximum temperature and decreased soil moisture explained \r\nmost of the burned area observed, suggesting a contribution of climate \r\nchange, but fire suppression, fire prevention, agricultural abandonment \r\nand reforestation as well as the reduction in forest area exerted \r\neven stronger influences on burned area than the climate across \r\nMediterranean Europe (robust evidence, high agreement) (Moreno \r\net al., 2014; Turco et al., 2017; Viedma et al., 2018; Turco et al., 2019)."


id: 5b0c18eb5a59719622eb011457f0f9ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13270
content:
"In Indonesia, deforestation and draining of peat swamp forests dries \r\nout the peat, providing substantial fuel for fires (Page and Hooijer, \r\n2016). Extreme fire years in Indonesia, including 1997, 2006 and 2015, \r\ncoincided with extreme heat and aridity during the warm phase of the \r\nENSO (Field et al., 2016). Fire-resistant forest in 2019 covered only 3% \r\nof peatlands and 4.5% of non-peatlands on Sumatra and Kalimantan \r\n(Nikonovas et al., 2020)."


id: 92564223b0753143d6ba9efc5408ad85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22967
content:
"In Chile, the area burned in the summer of 2016-2017 was 14 times \r\nthe mean for the period 1985-2016 and the highest on record \r\n(Bowman et al., 2019). While this extreme fire year coincided with the \r\nhighest daily mean maximum temperature in the period 1979-2017 \r\n(Bowman et al., 2019) in central Chile (the area of highest fire activity), "


id: 43d988fe78f4dcb9f28a14b2ace7d7a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9167
content:
"Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests across critical thresholds of \r\nheat and aridity that reduced the post-fire tree regeneration by half \r\n(Davis et al., 2019b). In the southwestern USA, where anthropogenic \r\nclimate change has caused drought (Williams et al., 2019) and increased \r\nwildfire (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016), high-severity fires have \r\nconverted some forest patches to shrublands (Barton and Poulos, 2018). \r\nField evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change and wildfire, \r\ntogether, altered vegetation species composition in the southwestern \r\nUSA and Cape floristic region, South Africa, reducing post-fire natural \r\nregeneration and species richness of tree and other plant species, \r\nbetween 1966 and 2015, at GMST increases of 0.3degC-0.9degC (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement)."


id: c6d34a2d7a8f29ae2f34bc7fca615859
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32292
content:
"burned area from 1976 to 2013 showed the highest correlation with \r\nthe precipitation cycles of the ENSO and the temperature cycles of the \r\nAntarctic Oscillation (Urrutia-Jalabert et al., 2018)."


id: 34f291f1d63fce5db9b93a3782efea1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6557
content:
"Overall, burned area has increased in the Amazon, Arctic, Australia and \r\nparts of Africa and Asia, consistent with, but not formally attributed \r\nto anthropogenic climate change (medium evidence, high agreement). \r\nDeforestation, peat draining, agricultural expansion or abandonment, \r\nfire suppression and inter-decadal cycles such as the ENSO exert a \r\nstronger influence than climate change on wildfire trends in numerous \r\nregions outside of North America (high confidence)."


id: 5a98adc7b81e891b166e4380f8f56899
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13198
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change can cause tree mortality directly via \r\nincreased aridity or drought (Section 2.4.4.3.3) or indirectly through \r\nwildfire (Section  2.4.4.2.1) and insect pests (Section  2.4.4.3.3). \r\nCatastrophic failure of the plant hydraulic system, in which a lack \r\nof water causes the xylem to lose hydraulic conductance, is the \r\nprincipal mechanism of drought-induced tree death (Anderegg et al., \r\n2016; Adams et al., 2017; Anderegg et al., 2018; Choat et al., 2018; \r\nMenezes-Silva et al., 2019; Brodribb et al., 2020)."


id: c9bd386a67188e5c519f8b4f91212cb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32820
content:
"In the Amazon, Australia, North America, Siberia and other regions, wildfires are burning wider areas than in the past. Analyses show that \r\nhuman-caused climate change has driven the increases in burned area in the forests of western North America. Elsewhere, deforestation, fire \r\nsuppression, agricultural burning and short-term cycles like El Nino can exert a stronger influence than climate change. Many forests and \r\ngrasslands naturally require fire for ecosystem health but excessive wildfire can kill people, destroy homes and damage ecosystems."


id: 761dcf5020c104aa0f883d067c977345
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18010
content:
"Figure FAQ2.3.1 | (a) Springs Fire, May 2, 2013, Thousand Oaks, California, USA (photo by Michael Robinson Chavez, Los Angeles Times). (b) Cumulative area \r\nburned by wildfire in the western USA, with (orange) and without (yellow) the increased heat and aridity of climate change."


id: 1cb3dd693c9306f394895702ca606c9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2228
content:
"Wildfire is a natural and essential part of many forest, woodland and grassland ecosystems, killing pests, releasing \r\nplant seeds to sprout, thinning out small trees and serving other functions essential for ecosystem health. Excessive \r\nwildfire, however, can kill people with the smoke causing breathing illnesses, destroy homes (Figure FAQ2.3.1a) and \r\ndamage ecosystems."


id: f9e9d115b99a1c092f3bfb69141658d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41333
content:
"Human-caused climate change increases wildfire by intensifying its principal driving factor, heat. The heat of \r\nclimate change dries out vegetation and accelerates burning. Non-climate factors also cause wildfires. Agricultural \r\ncompanies, small-scale farmers and livestock herders in many tropical areas cut down forests and intentionally \r\nset fires to clear fields and pastures. Cities, towns and roads increase the number of fires that people ignite. \r\nGovernments in many countries suppress fires, even natural ones, producing unnatural accumulations of fuel in the \r\nform of coarse woody debris and dense stands of small trees. The fuel accumulations cause particularly severe fires \r\nthat burn upwards into tree crowns."


id: 81d5bf28907726747d3265e5e91b0385
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19964
content:
"In other regions, wildfires are also burning wider areas and occurring more often. This is consistent with climate \r\nchange, but analyses have not yet shown if climate change is more important than other factors. In the Amazon, \r\ndeforestation by companies, farmers and herders who cut down and intentionally burn rainforests to expand \r\nagricultural fields and pastures causes wildfires even in relatively moister years. Drought exacerbates these fires. In \r\nAustralia, much of the southeastern part of the continent has experienced extreme wildfire years, but analyses \r\nsuggest that El Nino, a heat phenomenon that cycles up and down periodically, is more important than long-term "


id: cfa3ed153b76823100eba73695572a2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33889
content:
"climate change. In Indonesia, intentional burning of rainforests for oil palm plantations and El Nino seem to be \r\nmore important than long-term climate change. In Mediterranean Europe, fire suppression seems to have prevented \r\nany increasing trend in burned area but the suppression and abandonment of agricultural lands have allowed fuel \r\nto build up in some areas and contribute to major fires in years of extreme heat. In Canada and Siberia, wildfires \r\nare now burning more often in permafrost areas where fire was rare, but analyses are lacking regarding the relative \r\ninfluence of climate change. For the world as a whole, satellite data indicate that the vast amount of land converted \r\nfrom forest to farmland in the period 1998-2015 actually decreased the total burned area. Nevertheless, the \r\nevidence from the forests of western North America shows that human-caused climate change has, at least on one \r\ncontinent, clearly driven increases in wildfire."


id: 6b90f350047390a46bafe7da008340c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16227
content:
"coinciding with a ~1degC spring temperature increase, but non-climate \r\nfactors were not examined (Navarro-Cerrillo et  al., 2019). Across \r\nsouthern Africa, nine of the 13 oldest known (1100-2500 years old) \r\nbaobab trees (Adansonia digitata) have died since 2005, although \r\nthe causes are unknown (Patrut et al., 2018). In South Africa, savanna \r\ntrees experienced an order of magnitude increase in mortality, related, \r\nbut not formally attributed to, decreased rainfall (Case et al., 2019). \r\nIn Tunisia, insect infestations related, but not formally attributed to, \r\nhotter temperatures led to mortality of cork oaks (Quercus suber) \r\n(Bellahirech et al., 2019)."


id: c8363516b3256bd2ed4cee4c800b9b7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32533
content:
"In summary, anthropogenic climate change caused drought-induced \r\ntree mortality of up to 20% in the period 1945-2007 in western North \r\nAmerica, the African Sahel and North Africa, via global temperature \r\nincreases of 0.3degC-0.9degC above the pre-industrial period and increases in \r\naridity, and it contributed to over 100 other cases of drought-induced tree \r\nmortality in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and North and South America \r\n(high confidence). Field observations document accelerating mortality \r\nrates, rising background mortality and post-mortality vegetation shifts \r\n(high confidence). Water stress, leading to plant hydraulic failure, is the \r\nprincipal mechanism of drought-induced tree mortality. Timber cutting, \r\nagricultural expansion, air pollution and other non-climate factors also \r\ncontribute to tree death."


id: 95496d76f663489891f277b45e0be2a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23464
content:
"In western North America, increased infestations of bark beetles and \r\nother tree-feeding insects that benefit from higher winter temperatures \r\n(section 3.3.1.1 in (IPCC, 2021a)) and longer growing seasons \r\n(section 2.3.4.3.1 in (IPCC, 2021a)) have killed drought-stressed trees \r\n(Section 2.4.2.1) (Anderegg et al., 2015; Kolb et al., 2016; Lloret and \r\nKitzberger, 2018; Redmond et al., 2018; Stephens et al., 2018; Fettig \r\net al., 2019; Restaino et al., 2019; Stephenson et al., 2019). Increasing \r\ntemperatures have allowed bark beetles to move further north and \r\nto higher elevations, survive through the winter at sites where they "


id: d949d272e75b324831b8d1dd5f6ba1d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35529
content:
"In the African Sahel, field research has continued to detect tree \r\nmortality, ranging from 20 to 90% in the period 1965-2018 \r\n(Kusserow, 2017; Trichon et al., 2018; Dendoncker et al., 2020), and \r\ndeclines in tree biodiversity, with up to 80% local losses of tree \r\nspecies in the period 1970-2014 (Hanke et  al., 2016; Kusserow, \r\n2017; Ibrahim et al., 2018; Dendoncker et al., 2020), consistent with, \r\nbut not formally attributed to, climate change. In Algeria, mortality \r\nof the Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) increased from 1980 to 2006, "


id: 43337b5492a307f365b7ac4e32a458da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9031
content:
"Terrestrial ecosystems contain carbon stocks: 450 GtC (range 380-540 \r\nGtC) in vegetation, 1700 +- 250 GtC in soils that are not permanently \r\nfrozen and 1400 +- 200 GtC in permafrost (Hugelius et al., 2014; Batjes, \r\n2016; Jackson et al., 2017; Strauss et al., 2017; Erb et al., 2018a; Xu \r\net  al., 2021a). Ecosystem carbon stocks, totalling 3000-4000 GtC \r\n(from the lowest and highest estimates above), substantially exceed \r\nthe ~900 GtC carbon in unextracted fossil fuels (see(Canadell et al., \r\n2021))."


id: 35b16dd836f4201f033f9d6cdaff4c38
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6699
content:
"Deforestation, draining of peatlands and the expansion of agricultural \r\nfields, livestock pastures and human settlements and other LULCCs \r\nemitted carbon at a rate of 1.6 +- 0.7 Gt yr-1 from 2010 to 2019, \r\n(Friedlingstein et  al., 2020), of which wildfires and peat burning \r\nemitted 0.4 +- 0.2 Gt yr-1 from 1997 to 2016 (van der Werf et al., 2017). \r\nAnthropogenic climate change has caused some of these emissions \r\nthrough increases in wildfire (Section  2.4.4.2.1) and tree mortality \r\n(Section 2.4.4.3.1), but the fraction of the total remains unquantified. \r\nLUC produced ~15% of global anthropogenic emissions, from fossil \r\nfuels and land (Friedlingstein et  al., 2020). Terrestrial ecosystems \r\nremoved carbon from the atmosphere through plant growth at a rate \r\nof -3.4 +- 0.9 Gt yr-1 from 2010 to 2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: ee1f51894f5fd691265be4ea40bfe8cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39265
content:
"Tropical deforestation and the draining and burning of peatlands \r\nproduce almost all of the carbon emissions from LUC (Houghton and \r\nNassikas, 2017; Friedlingstein et al., 2020), while forest growth accounts \r\nfor two-thirds of ecosystem carbon removals from the atmosphere \r\n(Pugh et al., 2019b). Global terrestrial ecosystems comprised a net sink \r\nof -1.9 +- 1.1 Gt yr-1 from 2010 to 2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020), \r\nmainly due to growth in forests (Harris et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2021a), \r\nmitigating ~31% of global emissions from the burning of fossil fuels \r\nand LUC (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: 19617097ed05cf2450142f48880c95c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1682
content:
"In summary, terrestrial ecosystems contain 3000-4000 GtC in \r\nvegetation, permafrost and soils, three to five times the amount of \r\ncarbon in unextracted fossil fuels and 4.4 times the carbon currently \r\nin the atmosphere (robust evidence, high agreement). Tropical \r\ndeforestation, the draining and burning of peatlands and other LULCCs \r\nemit 0.9-2.3 GtC yr-1, ~15% of the global emissions from fossil \r\nfuels and ecosystems (robust evidence, high agreement). Terrestrial \r\necosystems currently remove more carbon from the atmosphere \r\n(-3.4+-0.9 Gt yr-1) than they emit (+1.6+-0.7 Gt yr-1), a net sink of \r\n-1.9+-1.1 Gt yr-1 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020) . Thus, tropical rainforests, \r\nArctic permafrost and other ecosystems provide the global ecosystem \r\nservice of naturally preventing carbon from contributing to climate \r\nchange (high confidence)."


id: 2ce53c553801e3ce3ea9513c77e6a252
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5169
content:
"The ecosystem that attains the highest above-ground carbon density \r\nin the world is the coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forest in \r\nCalifornia, USA, with 2600 +- 100 tonnes ha-1 carbon (Van Pelt et al., \r\n2016). The ecosystem with the second highest documented carbon \r\ndensity in the world is the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest "


id: 833f59a2b2292722a5c955692714bff5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20217
content:
"richness of plants, birds and beetles increased with carbon density up \r\nto ~100 tonnes ha-1 (Ferreira et al., 2018)."


id: 86a2b9fdb03e53ceb059119bdbf635a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20852
content:
"in Victoria, Australia, with ~1900 tonnes ha-1 (Keith et al., 2009). In \r\nthe Tropics, tropical evergreen broadleaf forests (rainforests) in the \r\nAmazon, the Congo and Indonesia attain the highest carbon densities, \r\nreaching a maximum of 230 tonnes ha-1 in the Amazon (Mitchard \r\net al., 2014) and the Congo (Xu et al., 2017). Temperature increases \r\nreduce the tropical rainforest above-ground carbon density 9.1 tonnes \r\nha-1 per degree Celsius, through reduced growth and increased tree \r\nmortality (Sullivan et al., 2020)."


id: b52567f5521845806f6c7fb384ff8106
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29107
content:
"National parks and other protected areas which, in June 2021, covered \r\n15.7% of global terrestrial area (UNEP-WCMC et  al., 2021) contain \r\n~90 GtC in vegetation and ~150 GtC in soil (one-fifth and one-tenth, \r\nrespectively, of global stocks) and remove carbon from the atmosphere \r\nat a rate of ~0.5 Gt yr-1 (one-sixth of global removals) (Melillo et al., \r\n2016). The most strictly protected areas contain carbon at higher \r\ndensities, but illegal deforestation and fires in some protected areas \r\nemit 38 +- 17 Mt yr-1 globally (Collins and Mitchard, 2017). In the \r\nAmazon, protected areas store more than half of the above-ground \r\nvegetation carbon stocks of the region, but account for only one-tenth \r\nof net emissions (Walker et al., 2020). Conservation of high biodiversity \r\nareas, particularly in protected areas, protects ecosystem carbon, \r\nprevents emissions to the atmosphere and reduces the magnitude of \r\nclimate change (high confidence)."


id: 89ddd929455d075e77ee7d5e04e456bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21422
content:
"Tropical forests contain the largest vegetation carbon stocks in the \r\nworld, with 180-250 GtC above and below ground (Saatchi et  al., \r\n2011; Baccini et al., 2012; Avitabile et al., 2016). The Amazon contains \r\na stock of 45-60 GtC (Baccini et  al., 2012; Mitchard et  al., 2014; \r\nEnglund et al., 2017)."


id: 34c3323e101279da34c283a5dff44d63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6522
content:
"Tropical forests and Arctic permafrost contain the highest ecosystem \r\ncarbon stocks in above-ground vegetation and soil, respectively, in \r\nthe world (robust evidence, high agreement). These ecosystems form \r\nnatural sinks that prevent the emission to the atmosphere of 1400-\r\n1800 GtC that would otherwise increase the magnitude of climate \r\nchange (high confidence)."


id: 3dfafa5c22c5e466ff6b92879c63dde8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8073
content:
"The Amazon as a whole was a net carbon emitter in the period 2003-\r\n2008 (Exbrayat and Williams, 2015; Yang et al., 2018b), primarily due \r\nto the expansion of agricultural and livestock areas, which caused "


id: c0731a2622fe63d01bb40310dc39b0cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31158
content:
"to land use since the early 2000s, making terrestrial ecosystems a net \r\ncarbon sink (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: 67ada3f1f4dbb95dcf0ddd5295374ecd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15508
content:
"Global terrestrial NPP increased by 6% from 1982 to 1999 through \r\nincreased temperature and increased solar radiation in the Amazon \r\nfrom decreased cloud cover (Nemani et al., 2003), and then decreased \r\n1% from 2000 to 2009, because of extensive droughts in the Southern \r\nHemisphere (Zhao and Running, 2010). From 1999 to 2015, increased \r\naridity caused extensive declines in the NDVI globally, particularly \r\nsemiarid ecosystems (Huang et  al., 2016), indicating widespread \r\ndecreases in NPP (Yuan et al., 2019)."


id: f78bbe2e6d4c438992576e3396b6f08a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40926
content:
"In Indonesia and Malaysia, draining and burning of peat swamp \r\nforests for oil palm plantations emitted 60-260 MtC yr-1 from 1990 \r\nto 2015, converting peatlands in that period from a carbon sink to a \r\ncarbon source (Miettinen et al., 2017; Wijedasa et al., 2018; Cooper \r\net  al., 2020). Deforestation of mangrove forests caused 10-30% of \r\ndeforestation emissions in Indonesia from 1980 to 2005 (Donato et al., \r\n2011; Murdiyarso et  al., 2015), even though mangroves comprised \r\nonly 3% of Indonesia primary forest area in 2000 (Margono et  al., \r\n2014; Murdiyarso et al., 2015)."


id: eccb5bc71140cba0c58bc069fdae08f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39027
content:
"In North America, wildfire emitted 0.1 +- 0.02 GtC yr-1 from in the \r\nperiod 1990-2012, but regrowth was slightly greater, producing a net \r\nsink (Chen et al., 2017). In California, USA, two-thirds of the 70 MtC \r\nemitted from natural ecosystems in 2001-2010 came from the 6% of \r\nthe area that burned (Gonzalez et al., 2015). Anthropogenic climate \r\nchange caused up to half of the burned area (Section 2.4.4.2.1)."


id: b47f7205bef3438da6b205fa82d815a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29001
content:
"In the Arctic, anthropogenic climate change has thawed permafrost \r\n(Guo et al., 2020), leading to emissions of 1.7 +- 0.8 GtC yr-1 in winter \r\nin the period 2003-2017 (Natali et al., 2019). Wildfires in the Arctic \r\ntundra in Alaska from ~1930 to 2010 caused up to a depth of 0.5 m \r\nof permafrost thaw (Brown et  al., 2015), exposing peatland carbon \r\n(Brown et al., 2015; Gibson et al., 2018) including soil carbon deposits \r\nup to 1600 years old (Walker et al., 2019)."


id: fa181bed7f6120bb9a34244b0c597414
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41371
content:
"Tropical deforestation, the draining and burning of peatlands and the \r\nthawing of Arctic permafrost due to climate change have caused these \r\necosystems to emit more carbon to the atmosphere than they naturally \r\nremove through vegetation growth (high confidence)."


id: 978f3cf4b3358ae887c106de315333d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23881
content:
"The difference between photosynthesis by plants (gross primary \r\nproductivity, GPP) and plant energy use through respiration is the \r\nnet growth of plants (NPP), which removes CO2 from the atmosphere \r\nand mitigates emissions from deforestation and other LUCs \r\n(Section 2.4.4.4). Global terrestrial NPP has exceeded emissions due "


id: df8c2a3a46efe09513274b30486cec27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36575
content:
"Temperature affects primary productivity by moderating phytoplankton \r\ngrowth rates, ice cover, thermal stratification and the length of growing \r\nseasons (Ruhland et al., 2015; Richardson et al., 2018). Global warming "


id: ae6acf168b3f1c5a37b1f611cab67e98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27916
content:
"in relative abundance of heat-loving or heat-tolerant species' (high \r\nconfidence) (Section 2.4.2.3) (Cline et al., 2013; Feeley et al., 2020)."


id: 1b84a4df2b5c135b35118e08cdd8c927
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2031
content:
"has reinforced eutrophication, especially cyanobacteria blooms \r\n(Wagner and Adrian, 2009; Kosten et al., 2012; O'Neil et al., 2012; De \r\nSenerpont Domis et al., 2013; Adrian et al., 2016; Visser et al., 2016; \r\nHuisman et al., 2018) (very high confidence). Conversely, warming can \r\nreduce cyanobacteria in hypertrophic lakes (Richardson et al., 2019). \r\nFreshwater cyanobacteria may benefit directly from elevated CO2\r\nconcentrations (Visser et al., 2016; Ji et al., 2017; Huisman et al., 2018; \r\nRichardson et al., 2019)."


id: 903abd073723491ae8ddb045d2dc8bc3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22578
content:
"Macrophyte growth in freshwaters is likely to increase with rising \r\nwater temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and precipitation (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Dhir, 2015; Hossain et  al., 2016; Short \r\net al., 2016; Reitsema et al., 2018). Nonetheless, primary productivity \r\nin rivers is variable and unpredictable (Bernhardt et al., 2018) because \r\nseasonal variations in temperature and light are uncorrelated, frequent \r\nhigh-flow events reduce biomass of autotrophs and droughts can \r\nstrand and desiccate autotrophs."


id: 4993bd619ebdf6d67b57fd0a983be47a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10174
content:
"In large, nutrient-poor lakes, warming-induced prolonged thermal \r\nstratification can reduce primary production (medium confidence) \r\n(Kraemer et  al., 2017). Warming may reduce phytoplankton \r\nconcentrations when temperature-induced increases in consumption \r\nof phytoplankton outpace increases in phytoplankton production (De \r\nSenerpont Domis et al., 2013). These decreases in productivity may be \r\nunder-recognised responses to climate change."


id: 9f284579ef0a8220503b1f612d346c7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25222
content:
"Summary: There is robust evidence of an increase in primary production \r\nalong with warming trends. However, increases or declines of algae \r\ncannot entirely be attributed to climate change; they are lake-specific \r\nand modulated through weather conditions, lake morphology, salinity, \r\nland use and restoration and biotic interactions (medium confidence) \r\n(O'Beirne et al., 2017; Velthuis et al., 2017; Rusak et al., 2018; Ho et al., \r\n2019)."


id: a35241c52fb27869366bf51706ab17d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25941
content:
"The consistency of patterns of biological change with expectations from \r\nregional or global warming processes, coupled with an understanding \r\nof underlying processes and the coherence of these patterns at \r\nboth regional and global scales, all form multiple lines of evidence \r\n(Parmesan et al., 2013) that it is very likely that the observed range \r\nshifts and phenological changes in individual species can be attributed \r\nto regional and global climate changes (very high confidence) \r\n(Section  2.4.2, Table  2.2; Table  2.3; Table  SM2.1) (Parmesan et  al., \r\n2013)."


id: 9aaf465c1dd6ffd824c3b09689ddf1f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24457
content:
"Field research since the AR5 has detected biome shifts at numerous \r\nsites, poleward and upslope, that are consistent with increased \r\ntemperatures and altered precipitation patterns driven by climate \r\nchange, and support prior studies that attributed such shifts to \r\nanthropogenic climate change (high confidence). New studies help \r\nfill previous geographic and habitat gaps, for example, documenting \r\nupward shifts in the forest/alpine tundra ecotone in the Andes, Tibet \r\nand Nepal, and northward shifts in the deciduous/boreal forest \r\necotones in Canada. Globally, woody encroachment into open areas \r\n(grasslands, arid regions and tundra) is likely being driven by climate \r\nchange and increased CO2, in concert with changes in grazing and fire \r\nregimes (medium confidence) (Section 2.4.3)."


id: 85a83129d875944d03836677bdef406f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20657
content:
"Global and regional meta-analyses of diverse systems, habitats and \r\ntaxonomic groupings document that approximately half of all species \r\nwith long-term records have shifted their ranges poleward and/or \r\nupward in elevation and ~2/3 have advanced their timing of spring \r\nevents (phenology) (very high confidence) (Section  2.4.2, Table  2.2) \r\n(Parmesan and Hanley, 2015; Parmesan, 2019). Changes in abundance \r\ntend to match predictions from climate warming, with warm-adapted \r\nspecies significantly outperforming cold-adapted species in warming \r\nhabitats (Feeley et al., 2020) and the composition of local communities \r\nbecoming more 'thermophilised', that is, experiencing an 'increase "


id: f5e82cc8cf11cf9ee819ebe1cfa082fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40621
content:
"Climate change has driven, or is contributing to, increased tree mortality \r\ndirectly through increased aridity and droughts and indirectly through \r\nincreased wildfires and insect pests in many locations (high confidence).\r\nAnalyses of causal factors have attributed increasing tree mortality at \r\nsites in Africa and North America to anthropogenic climate change, and \r\nfield evidence has detected tree mortality due to drought, wildfires \r\nand insect pests in temperate and tropical forests around the world \r\n(high confidence). Water stress, leading to plant hydraulic failure, is a \r\nprincipal mechanism of drought-induced tree mortality, along with the \r\nindirect effects of climate change mediated by community interactions \r\n(high confidence) (Section 2.4.4.3)."


id: bc4fafb052bfc2fa0d42ed343a5638d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30374
content:
"resource requirements or capacities for distributional and genetic \r\nchanges (Foden et al., 2013; Cizauskas et al., 2017; Foden et al., 2019). \r\nTraits that render entire ecosystems vulnerable are harder to define, \r\nbut it is clear that vulnerabilities are high in the coldest habitats, in \r\nthose with limited geographic ranges such as low-lying islands and in \r\nspecialised, restricted habitats such as serpentine outcrops in California \r\n(Anacker and Harrison, 2012) and dry meadows in Fennoscandia and \r\nTibet (Yang et al., 2018a). Ecosystem vulnerability can depend critically \r\non the fates of plants that function as 'foundation species', providing \r\ncommunity biomass above and below the ground, structuring habitat \r\nfor fauna and providing ecosystem services such as erosion control \r\n(Camac et al., 2021)."


id: 26d8ba3cd33f7a573219d15afc329dc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3994
content:
"Terrestrial ecosystems sequester and store globally critical stocks of \r\ncarbon, but these stocks are at risk from deforestation and climate \r\nchange (high confidence). Tropical deforestation and the draining and \r\nburning of peatlands produce almost all of the carbon emissions from \r\nLULCC. In the Arctic, increased temperatures have thawed permafrost \r\nat numerous sites, dried some areas and increased fires, causing net \r\nemissions of carbon from soils (high confidence) (Sections  2.4.4.4, \r\n2.5.3.4)."


id: f82bd7817a150f5431c7af9875603998
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41035
content:
"Methods for projecting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity \r\ncan be classified into three types: (1) statistical models such as SDMs \r\n(Elith and Leathwick, 2009); (2) mechanistic or process-based models \r\n(Chuine and Regniere, 2017) and (3) trait-based models (Pacifici et al., \r\n2015). It is only recently that models have been developed looking \r\nat lower levels of warming like 1.5degC (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; \r\nWarren et al., 2018)."


id: 3c1b35f2c8dd9e092856c11776ddc6a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7766
content:
"Globally, increases in temperature, aridity and drought have increased \r\nthe length of fire seasons and doubled the potentially burnable land \r\narea (medium confidence). Increases in the area burned have been \r\nattributed to anthropogenic climate change in North America (high \r\nconfidence). In parts of Africa, Asia, Australia and South America, \r\nthe area burned has also increased, consistent with anthropogenic \r\nclimate change. Deforestation, peat-burning, agricultural expansion \r\nor abandonment, fire suppression and inter-decadal cycles strongly \r\ninfluence fire occurrence. The areas with the greatest increases in the \r\nlength of the fire season include the Amazon, western North America, \r\nwestern Asia and East Africa (Section 2.4.4.2)."


id: 2e00940b50f741176e69e143f1099f26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5370
content:
"SDMs or niche-based models assess potential geographic areas of \r\nsuitable climate for the species in current conditions and then project \r\nthem into future conditions (Trisurat, 2018; Vieira et al., 2018). There are \r\nlimitations in all models and it is critical that modellers understand the \r\nassumptions, proper parameterization and limitations of each model \r\ntechnique, including differences between climate models, emission \r\nscenarios or RCPs and baselines (Araujo et al., 2019). Several systems \r\nautomate the development of SDMs, including R-packages (Beaumont \r\net al., 2016; Hallgren et al., 2016), and other model types (Foden et al., \r\n2019) and aid in the use of climate model data (Suggitt et al., 2017), \r\nincluding allowing for connectivity constraints (Peterson et al., 2013). \r\nBuisson et al. (2010) found most variation in model outputs stems from \r\ndifferences in design, followed by general circulation models (GCMs)."


id: 3e71d5d87e2dc1f71dd48f229fb27a9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8168
content:
"The changes in biodiversity and ecosystem health that we have \r\nobserved, and project will continue, pose a risk of declines in human \r\nhealth and well-being (e.g., tourism, recreation, food, livelihoods and \r\nquality of life) (medium confidence). Clear attribution of these impacts \r\nis often not possible, but inferences can be made by comparison of \r\nthe observed changes in biodiversity/ecosystem health and the known \r\nservices from these particular ecosystems."


id: d96f056cf25757eb88045efb5ba9c584
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35550
content:
"Mechanistic approaches, also known as process-based models, project \r\nthe responses of species to climate changes by explicitly incorporating \r\nknown biological processes, thresholds and interactions (Morin and \r\nThuiller, 2009; Maino et  al., 2016). Mechanistic models are able to \r\naccommodate a broad range of mechanisms of climate change impacts \r\nand include species-specific characteristics such as dispersal distances, \r\nlongevity, fecundity, genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity. \r\nHowever, sufficient knowledge is available for only a few well-studied \r\nspecies. Species' traits have been used to more broadly estimate \r\npotential climate change impacts (Foden et al., 2013; Cizauskas et al., \r\n2017)."


id: dc79aa05b9e8fafa8dbbe665bf9b4315
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36056
content:
"Under the risk assessment framework that was introduced in AR5 (IPCC, \r\n2014b), risk means the probability of harmful consequences resulting \r\nfrom climate change. It results from the interaction of vulnerability, \r\nexposure and hazard and can be represented as the probability of \r\noccurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if \r\nthese events or trends occur (see Chapter 1, this report). The framework \r\ndefines vulnerability as a pre-existing condition, incorporating the \r\nextent to which species or ecosystems are susceptible to, or unable \r\nto cope with, the adverse effects of climate change. Vulnerable \r\nspecies have limited adaptive capacity, stemming from physiological \r\nand behavioural constraints, limited dispersal abilities and restricted "


id: ee31662017e2bc30abf0360d57ccb1f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39276
content:
"Most models are on a large scale (20-50 km), and so cannot capture \r\nmicro-climatic refugia generated by diversities of slope aspect, elevation \r\nor shade (Suggitt et al., 2015; Suggitt et al., 2018). In analysing records of \r\n430 climate-threatened and range-declining species in England, (Suggett "


id: cce918816c07ccd0b0b2d47c80255023
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33391
content:
"Table 2.3 |  Assessing uncertainty in detection and attribution of observed changes in terrestrial and freshwater species and ecosystems to climate change. The lines of evidence \r\nused to support given uncertainty statements, including confidence statements, of the attribution of key conclusions on observed biological changes to climate change and increased \r\natmospheric CO2. Icons represent lines of evidence. This is a summary table that is fully detailed in Table SM2.1."


id: 46c6dd5221be908a28e8aed3421f9b07
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9657
content:
"About half of all species where LULCC has been \r\nminimal have shifted their ranges, with 80-90% of \r\nmovements being in the direction expected from \r\nregional warming trends, i.e., poleward and \r\nupward. "


id: f02aab37b149ff3385802e2c46105a84
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39640
content:
"Downslope elevational shifts and east/west shifts \r\n(shown for trees and birds) have been associated \r\nwith regional increases in precipitation where \r\nprecipitation has been shown to be the principal \r\ndriver of a range boundary."


id: abf67a75cd104222a044d12680e203e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27492
content:
"not been independently validated and do not allow direct comparison \r\nof vulnerability and risk across taxonomic groups."


id: 61fd060afa87bd79a5f089639ef91586
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14511
content:
"et  al., 2015; Suggitt et  al., 2018) showed that topographic diversity \r\nreduced population declines most strongly in areas experiencing the \r\nmost local warming and in the species most sensitive to warming. Under \r\nthese circumstances, topographic diversity reduced the risk of population \r\nextinction by 22% for plants and 9% for insects."


id: 8d17c00b4ed9aea0702a0fa4c302b319
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22013
content:
"None of the modelling techniques are predictions of the future, \r\nthey are rather projections of possible futures. To date, only a few \r\nstudies have validated model performance against observations, but \r\nthe studies that have been conducted do generally validate models \r\nusing either SDMs or process-based models (Johnston et  al., 2013; \r\nFordham et al., 2018). SDMs should be considered as hypotheses of \r\nwhat a future world might look like if the climate projections came \r\nto pass. Suggestions have been made on how to start bringing more \r\nbiotic interactions into SDMs (Early and Keith, 2019), but limited \r\nbasic ecological understanding of interactions, along with limits on \r\ncomputation and funding, constrains how far and how fast these \r\nmodelling techniques can advance."


id: dc0746c3c2ced911e73d4821243c697
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35989
content:
"In order to add realism and reliability to risk assessments at the species \r\nand community levels, non-modelling approaches, based on known \r\nbiological traits or processes as well as on expert opinion (Camac \r\net  al., 2021), are used to temper model outputs with ground-based \r\nvalidation. Trait-based assessment approaches use species' biological \r\ncharacteristics as predictors of sensitivity, adaptive capacity and \r\nextinction risk due to climate change. Climate exposure can be \r\nestimated using GIS-based modelling, statistical programs or expert \r\njudgment (Chin et al., 2010). These trait-based approaches are widely \r\napplied to predict responses of biodiversity to climate change because \r\nthey do not require modelling expertise or detailed distibutional data \r\n(Pacifici et al., 2015; Willis et al., 2015). Most of these methods have "


id: 6348a9f0b065c0e18dd406740d54e6ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14764
content:
"This assessment of current findings is of studies across a range of taxa \r\nand modelling techniques. Extinction risk estimates whether or not a \r\nparticular species may be at risk of extinction over the coming decades \r\nif climatic trends continue, and usually does not take into account other \r\nhuman-induced stressors (e.g., invasive species or pollution). It is not a \r\nprediction that a species will definitely become extinct because, even \r\nwhen complete loss of a species' range is projected, the scale of the \r\nmodel cannot estimate persistence in very small-scale micro-climatic \r\nrefugia (that can be on the order of metres in size) (Suggitt et al., 2015; \r\nSuggitt et al., 2018). Individuals and populations can survive after the "


id: 9813e24791f1fb51655b39c9fe98e31e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23968
content:
"Molluscs are projected to be the most at-risk group, given their \r\nlimited dispersal capability (Woodward et  al., 2010). Mediterranean \r\nfreshwater fish are especially susceptible to climate change due to \r\nincreasing flood and drought events and the risk of surpassing critical \r\ntemperature thresholds (Santiago et  al., 2016; Jaric et  al., 2019). In \r\nsouthern Europe, aquatic insects (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and \r\nTrichoptera) are endangered by climate change (Conti et  al., 2014). \r\nEuropean protected areas are not expected to be sufficient under \r\nwarming to provide habitat for the majority of rare molluscs and fish \r\n(Markovic et al., 2014). Observed trends agree with model projections \r\nin direction, but magnitude remains uncertain (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement, medium confidence) (see Figure 2.8 for extinction \r\nrisk globally for dragonflies, amphibians and turtles)."


id: e3d7aff1ac3abfe72d44ecb236b3ecdf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37372
content:
"conditions for successful reproduction are gone, leading to a lagged \r\ndecline, called 'extinction debt' (see section 2.4.2.8) (Alexander et al., \r\n2018). Therefore, range loss is an established criterion for assessing \r\nendangerment status and risk of extinction. As a species range \r\nbecomes smaller and occupied habitats become more isolated, the \r\nlikelihood of a single stochastic event causing extinction increases. \r\nIt is this combination of projected loss of climatically suitable space \r\nand additional stressors (especially LULCC of critical habitat) that is \r\nexpected to drive future extinctions."


id: 514edb00bf9d164343f00b162d0130e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11582
content:
"The IUCN Red List Criteria (IUCN, 2019) classifies a species as \r\n'critically endangered' if it has suffered a range loss of >=80%, with \r\na resulting likelihood of extinction of >50% in the near term (10-\r\n100 yrs, depending upon generation length). A species is classified as \r\n'endangered' if it has suffered a range loss of >=50%, with a resulting \r\nlikelihood of extinction of >20% in the near term (10-100  years). \r\nIn this assessment, a species that is projected to become classified \r\nas 'endangered' is deemed to be at 'high risk' of extinction, and \r\nbecoming classified as 'critically endangered' is deemed at 'very high \r\nrisk' of extinction."


id: a3dae92167b4c41dfa594541a6ad02d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26022
content:
"Regional threats from climate change have been reported for 40% of \r\namphibians in China, (Wu, 2020), 33% of European freshwater fish \r\nspecies (Janssen et  al., 2016) and 56-69% of odonates in Australia, \r\n(Bush et al., 2014b). Assessment of site-specific extirpation for 88 aquatic \r\ninsect taxa projected that climate change-induced hydrological alteration \r\nwould result in a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and \r\na 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Pyne and Poff, 2017). In Africa's Albertine Rift, 51% (n = \r\n551) of fish are expected to be impacted by climate change, with 5.5% \r\nat a high risk due to their sensitivity and poor adaptative capability \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement) (Carr et al., 2013)."


id: 180dcd6875e016e7fbbb21d2f47de0f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1440
content:
"Because risk to freshwater species has been limited in past reports, this \r\nsection provides details of freshwater risk. Lakes, rivers and freshwater \r\nwetlands cover approximately 7.7-9.1% of global land surface area; \r\n(Lehner et al., 2008; Fluet-Chouinard et al., 2015; Allen and Pavelsky, \r\n2018) and hold 9.5% of the Earth's described animals (Balian et al., \r\n2008), with climate change indicated as a threat to 50-75% of fish \r\n(Xenopoulos et al., 2005; Darwall and Freyhof, 2015). Climate change \r\nis cited as a primary factor in species' extinction risk due to changes in \r\nwater temperatures, stream flow, loss of cold water habitat, increased \r\nvariability of precipitation and increased disease risk from warming \r\ntemperatures (robust evidence, high agreement, high confidence) \r\n(Knouft and Ficklin, 2017; Pletterbauer et al., 2018; Jaric et al., 2019; \r\nReid et al., 2019) adding to the stress of overexploitation and LULCC \r\n(Craig et al., 2017; IPBES, 2019)."


id: 77f44c28f26be74d3cdfa91cc3dde205
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18308
content:
"The GLOBIO-Aquatic model (Janse et  al., 2015 a) links models for \r\ndemography, economy, LUCs, climate change, nutrient emissions, a \r\nglobal hydrological model and a global map of water bodies. It projects \r\nthat changes in both water quality (eutrophication) and quantity (flow) \r\nwill generate negative relations in freshwater ecosystems between \r\nthe persistence of species originally present in each community and \r\na constellation of stressors, including harmful algal blooms. Under a \r\n4degC rise by 2050, mean abundance of species is projected to decline \r\nby 70% in running water and by 80% in standing water (medium \r\nevidence, high agreement, medium confidence) (Janse et al., 2015 a )."


id: 88f8c891bad7fbf45f877b4cc049ccb5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21264
content:
"Increased frequency of stream drying events, reducing hydrologic \r\nconnectivity and limiting access of native fishes to spawning habitats \r\nis projected for RCP8.5 in Colorado, USA (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) (Jaeger et al., 2014). Cold-water habitats and associated \r\nobligate species are particularly vulnerable, and losses in these \r\nhabitats have been both documented and projected, for example, \r\nin salmonids (Santiago et  al., 2016; Fullerton et  al., 2017; Merriam \r\net al., 2017). River networks are projected to lose connections to cold \r\ntributary refugia, that are important thermal refuges for cold water \r\nspecies (robust evidence, high agreement) (Isaak et al., 2016) during \r\nlow flows (Merriam et al., 2017)."


id: 4283edc8e0f9f756fe5c572a69c0667e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8895
content:
"Community turnovers are expected in freshwaters as cold-adapted \r\nspecies lose and warm-adapted species gain climatically suitable \r\nhabitat (Domisch et al., 2011; Domisch et al., 2013; Shah et al., 2014). \r\nWhile a number of warm-adapted species may experience range \r\nexpansions, the majority of species are predicted to lose climatically \r\nsuitable areas by, on average, 38-44%, depending on the emission \r\nscenario (A2a and B2a) (medium evidence) (Domisch et al., 2013)."


id: c9ba58c77f459ee1602cf841395b0015
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32818
content:
"of the species, termed 'global biodiversity loss' (Figure 2.8b). This metric \r\n(losing > 50% of suitable climate space across the species' entire \r\nrange) also serves to estimate a species' becoming sufficiently rare \r\nthat the species no longer fully contributes to ecosystem functioning, \r\na state that often occurs decades before complete extinction (death of \r\nthe last individual). The proportions of species becoming at high risk of \r\nglobal extinction is the foundation for the burning embers diagram on \r\nglobal biodiversity loss in Table 2.5 and Figure 2.11."


id: bbda62aadc6db9518035eec69b075307
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30283
content:
"Third is an assessment of risk of the proportions of species becoming at \r\nvery high risk of extinction globally at different levels of GSAT warming, \r\nmeasured using the IUCN criteria for 'critically endangered', and termed \r\n'species' extinction risk' (Figure 2.7 and Figure 2.8a). This measure is "


id: 3f7047a3503aa7597120f8c84513a6fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8347
content:
"Risk of global biodiversity loss differs among taxonomic groups. The \r\npercent of species projected at high risk of extinction was 49% for all \r\ninsects, 44% for all plants and 26% for all vertebrates at ~3degC global \r\nrise in temperature (Figure 2.8b) (Warren et al., 2018). These estimates \r\ndropped considerably at lower levels of warming, down to 18%, 16% \r\nand 8% at 2degC; and 6%, 8% and 4% at 1.5degC (Figure 2.8b) (Warren \r\net  al., 2018), so not entirely dissimilar to the numbers in AR4 \r\n(Figure 2.7)."


id: ad72af114ed9fba878e326e0fa2197c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27757
content:
"closest to assessing the complete loss of a species in the wild and \r\ncan be used to compare to past (palaeo) extinction rates. These three \r\napproaches provide complementary information of the overall risks \r\nto individual species, to biodiversity at the community scale, and to \r\necosystem integrity and functioning at different levels of warming."


id: 3b4fa3492aab4271eab82996a6835dc6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7623
content:
"Risk of local biodiversity loss, estimated as the proportion of species \r\nin a given area projected to become endangered (sensu IUCN), and \r\ntherefore at high risk of extinction, is projected to affect a greater \r\nnumber of regions experiencing increasing warming. About one-third \r\nof land area risks more than 50% of species becoming \"endangered\" \r\nby 4.0deg GSAT warming (Figure 2.6). That is, the deep orange and red \r\nareas in Figure 2.6 are those areas for which >50% of species currently \r\ninhabiting those ecosystems are projected to lose >50% of their \r\nclimatically suitable habitat. Species' losses are projected to be worst \r\nin northern South America, southern Africa, most of Australia and at \r\nnorthern high latitudes (medium confidence) (Figure 2.6)."


id: db7de7e12bbe1edaebea145c3e5b8d0a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35893
content:
"For risk of global biodiversity loss, at 1.58degC global warming (median \r\nestimate), >10% of species are projected to become \"endangered\", and \r\nso at high risk of extinction (sensu IUCN). At 2.07degC (median) >20% of \r\nspecies are projected to become endangered. Ten-twenty percent losses \r\nrepresent high and very high risk of biodiversity losses, respectively, \r\nsubstantial enough to reduce ecosystem integrity and functioning \r\n(medium confidence) (Figure  2.8b) (see Section  2.5.4; Figure  2.11; \r\nTable 2.5, Table SM2.5)."


id: 2c6e69120cb838a12150ed2289fbec1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5081
content:
"(a) Species groups listed projected to be at a very high risk of extinction, corresponding to the IUCN Red List criteria for a species classified as 'critically endangered' (v3.1) by \r\nlosing >80% of its climatically suitable range area."


id: f8cd722368db608298afb5a41614706
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41136
content:
"While malaria risk is predicted to decrease in some lowland tropical \r\nareas as temperatures become too hot for vector or parasite \r\ndevelopment, other warm-adapted diseases, like dengue and Zika, \r\ntransmitted by A. aegypti, are predicted to increase (Cross-Chapter \r\nBox Illness in this chapter, chapter 7) (Ryan et al., 2019; Ryan et al., \r\n2021). In more temperate regions, arboviruses and other VBDs with \r\nwider thermal breadths, such as West Nile fever, Ross River fever and \r\nLyme disease, are predicted to increase with climate warming (Ogden \r\net al., 2008; Leighton et al., 2012; Shocket et al., 2018; Shocket et al., \r\n2020; Couper et al., 2021). Drought can exacerbate these effects of \r\ntemperature (Paull et al., 2017)."


id: 28c733cc58a69378a75bd90ce0b5c082
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4388
content:
"Figure 2.8 also shows the benefits of dispersal in reducing extinction \r\nrisk in birds, mammals, butterflies, moths and dragonflies (depicted \r\nwith an asterix). While dispersal may benefit individual species, it poses \r\nadditional risks to communities and ecosystems that species are moving \r\ninto, as interactions between species are changed or eliminated."


id: 17bc3f49b84d27de25c9e477336a4463
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1383
content:
"Projected species extinctions at future global warming levels are in \r\naccord with projections from AR4, assessed on much larger numbers of \r\nspecies with much greater geographic coverage and a broader range \r\nof climate models. (Figure 2.7; Figure 2.8a). Even the lowest estimates \r\nof species extinction (median of 9% at 1.5degC warming, Figure 2.7) are \r\n1000 times the natural background rates (De Vos et al., 2015)."


id: 17dff8dd4de0d0143845ba28e0233452
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1403
content:
"A global analysis of 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite \r\ncombinations found that organisms adapted to cool and mild climates \r\nare likely to experience increased risks of outbreaks along with climate \r\nwarming, while warm-adapted organisms may experience a lower \r\ndisease risk, providing further support for predictions that climate \r\nchange will increase the transmission of infectious diseases at higher \r\nlatitudes across a taxonomically diverse array of pathogens (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Cohen et al., 2020). A study examining the \r\nfuture risk of arboviruses (chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika \r\nviruses) spread by A. aegypti and A. albopictus projected increased \r\ndisease risk due to interactions of multiple variables, including \r\nincreased human connectivity, urbanisation and climate change \r\n(Kraemer et al., 2019), although vector species' ranges will broaden \r\nonly slightly (Campbell et al., 2015)."


id: 6242c80e0bee9067a2e8f9fd02eb9d99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14565
content:
"Using data from geological timescales, (Song et al., 2021) predicted \r\nthat a warming of 5.2degC above pre-industrial levels would result in a \r\nmass extinction comparable to that of the five mass extinctions over \r\nthe past 540 Myr, on the order of 70-85% of species becoming extinct, \r\nin the absence of non-climatic stressor. (Mathes et  al., 2021) found \r\nevidence in the geological record that short-term rapid warming, \r\non top of long-term warming trends, increases extinction risk by up \r\nto 40% over that expected from the long-term trend alone, with a \r\nbiodiversity 'memory' of up to 60 Myr, indicating an additonal risk of \r\nmulti-decadal overshoot."


id: be6d0082d10d249465f365174422d287
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30765
content:
"Most of the large-scale studies that have been performed are \r\nfor losses based on climate alone (Figures  2.6, 2.7, 2.8). However, \r\nclimate is rarely the only stressor affecting species survival. Habitat \r\nloss is currently the largest driver of range loss and extinction risk \r\nfor most species (IUCN, 2019). Communities in different regions are \r\nbecoming more similar to each other as species tolerant of human \r\nactivities prosper and spread, with many rare and endemic species \r\nalready having been driven to extinction, primarily by LULCC (Pimm \r\net al., 2006). Thus, it will likely be the interaction of climate change \r\nand habitat conversion (often driven by climate change) that will \r\nultimately determine the risk and ability of many species to survive \r\nover the next century."


id: aeda847f28ae6fe0eaa882c063dbfe6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28007
content:
"In sum, climate change is expected to expand and redistribute the \r\nburden of vector-borne and other environmentally transmitted \r\ndiseases of wild animals, domesticated animals and humans, by \r\nshifting many regions toward the thermal optima of VBD transmission \r\nfor multiple parasites, thereby increasing risk of transmission, while \r\npushing temperatures above optimal and towards upper thermal limits \r\nfor other vectors and pathogens, thus decreasing their transmission \r\n(high confidence)(see also chapter 7) (Mordecai et al., 2019; Mordecai \r\net al., 2020). These effects are mediated by other human impacts such \r\nas LUC, mobility, socioeconomic conditions and vector and pathogen \r\ncontrol measures (Parham et al., 2015; Tjaden et al., 2018)."


id: ac13b7f3590d2abca7aa7d8c8fed5416
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27512
content:
"Shifts in terrestrial biome and changes in ecosystem processes in \r\nresponse to climate change are most frequently projected with dynamic \r\nglobal vegetation models (DGVMs) or land-surface models that form \r\npart of ESMs, which use gridded climate variables, atmospheric CO2\r\nconcentration and information on soil properties as input variables. \r\nSince AR5, most DGVMs have been upgraded to capture carbon-\r\nnitrogen cycle interactions (e.g., (Le Quere et  al., 2018), many also \r\ninclude a representation of wildfire and fire-vegetation interactions \r\n(Rabin et  al., 2017) and a small number now also account for land \r\nmanagement (e.g., wood removal from forests and crop fertilisation \r\nharvest of irrigation (Arneth et al., 2017). Other forms of disturbance, "


id: 857bf13ca06302cb10db71553109d5d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20624
content:
"does not address sources of uncertainty and it would be advisable \r\nto perform 'perturbed-physics' experiments, in which multiple model \r\nparameters are varied in parallel more frequently as a means to test \r\nparameter-value uncertainty (Wramneby et  al., 2008; Booth et  al., \r\n2012; Lienert and Joos, 2018)."


id: fc8b5ff471697b8c593d3cc5878dec80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41795
content:
"such as tree mortality, in response to, for example, episodic weather \r\nextremes or insect pest outbreaks, are relatively poorly represented \r\nor not at all, although they demonstrably impact calculated carbon \r\ncycling (Pugh et al., 2019a). Simulated biome shifts are generally in \r\nagreement in projecting broad patterns on a global scale but vary \r\ngreatly regarding the simulated trends in historical and future carbon \r\nuptake or losses, both regionally and globally (Chang et  al., 2017; \r\nCanadell et al., 2021)."


id: c08fca75e2fec3cf03d66286d5ab038e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31173
content:
"Species diversity impacts ecosystem functioning and hence ecosystem \r\nservices (Hooper et al., 2012; Mokany et al., 2016). So far, however, \r\nintegrated modelling of ecosystem processes and biodiversity across \r\nmultiple trophic levels and food webs is in its infancy (Harfoot et al., \r\n2014). Whether or not the enhanced integration of state, function \r\nand functional diversity across multiple trophic levels in models will \r\nmarkedly alter projections of how ecosystems respond to climate \r\nchange thus remains an open research question."


id: 8cffde7a22dc585029ab8bce543eb728
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21991
content:
"Similar to other models, models to project large-scale changes in \r\nvegetation and ecosystem processes have to deal with structural \r\nuncertainty (associated with the choice and the representation of \r\nprocesses in models), input-data uncertainty (associated with variability \r\nin initial conditions and parameter values) and error propagation \r\n(associated with coupling models) (Rounsevell et  al., 2019). The \r\nIPBES methodological assessment report on scenarios and models \r\nof biodiversity and ecosystem services provides a comprehensive \r\noverview over the relevant issues (Ferrier et al., 2016)."


id: 52a11d63fe32e2e0d4845a8d8aa2f70e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11818
content:
"Beyond dynamic simulation of biome shifts and carbon cycling, which \r\nare important aspects of climate regulation, DGVMs can also provide \r\ninformation on a number of variables closely linked to other ecosystem \r\nservices such as water availability, air quality or food provisioning \r\n(Krause et al., 2017; Rabin et al., 2020). However, they are not intended \r\nto provide a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem services. For \r\nthese, other approaches applied but, to date, these are mostly applied \r\non regional scales and are only weakly dynamic (Ferrier et al., 2016)."


id: d0b6c63b731b931d90e4a80f782c851a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34069
content:
"In order to assess performance, most models have been individually \r\nevaluated against a range of observations. Moreover, in the annual \r\nupdates of the global carbon budgets, a model has to meet a small \r\nset of basic criteria to have its output included (Le Quere et al., 2018). \r\nMore systematic benchmarking approaches have also been proposed \r\nthat utilise a range of different datasets (Kelley et  al., 2013; Chang \r\net al., 2017) to assess multiple simulated processes. These methods, in \r\nprinciple, facilitate assigning quality scores to models based on their \r\noverall performance (Kelley et al., 2013). So far, this scoring does not \r\nyet allow a clear quality ranking of models, since individual DGVMs \r\ntend to score well for some variables and badly for others. A recent \r\ncomparison of global fire-vegetation model outputs was also able to \r\nclearly identify outliers when using a formalised benchmarking and \r\nscoring approach (Hantson et  al., 2020). However, benchmarking "


id: 4f0d4ef940c02ea2ad1f612e053a44ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11195
content:
"Climate change and the associated change in atmospheric CO2 levels \r\nalready exacerbate other human-caused impacts on the structure \r\nand composition of land and freshwater ecosystems, such as LULCC, \r\nnitrogen deposition and pollution. The relative importance of these \r\ndrivers for ecosystems over the coming decades will likely differ \r\nbetween biomes, but climate change and atmospheric CO2 will be \r\npervasive unless there is a rapid lowering of fossil-fuel emissions and "


id: 4a82a2a83141ea975929447aa1c1b35e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10349
content:
"Figure 2.9 |  Projected fraction of global terrestrial area that could experience a biome shift by 2100. Shifts due to climate change (filled symbols) or a combination \r\nof climate change and LUC (outline symbols), from publications in Supplementary Table SM2.3 (projected vulnerabilities and risks of ecosystems to biome shifts). Filled circles \r\n(Bergengren et al., 2011), filled squares (Alo and Wang, 2008), filled diamonds (Gonzalez et al., 2010), filled triangle pointing up (Scholze et al., 2006), filled triangle pointing down \r\n(Sitch et al., 2008), filled triangle on its side (Li et al., 2018), filled cross (Warszawski et al., 2013), outlined circle (Ostberg et al., 2018)and outlined diamond (Eigenbrod et al., 2015)."


id: 75f2ba9504427786670a6928035fe5da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17975
content:
"warming (high confidence) (Pereira et al., 2010; Warren, 2011; Ostberg \r\net al., 2013; Davies-Barnard et al., 2015; Pecl et al., 2017; Ostberg et al., \r\n2018). Global vegetation and ESMs agree on climate change-driven \r\nshifts of biome boundaries of potentially hundreds of kilometres over \r\nthis century, combined with several substantial alterations that take \r\nplace within biomes (e.g., changes in phenology, canopy structure and \r\nfunctional diversity, etc.). Large discrepancies exist between models \r\nand between scenarios regarding the region and the speed of change \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2010; Pereira et al., 2010; Pecl et al., 2017), but robust \r\nunderstanding is emerging in that the degree of impact increases \r\nin high-emission and high-warming scenarios (high confidence) \r\n(Figure 2.9)."


id: e6d92042067998602e9d71fe0123e6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37903
content:
"Range retractions are projected for endemic plants in southern Africa \r\n(Young et  al., 2016) and dry woodlands in Morocco (Alba-Sanchez \r\net al., 2015). Increasing thermal stress is projected to increase woody \r\nplant mortality in the Sonoran Desert ecosystems (Munson et  al., \r\n2016) and facilitate perennial grass replacement by xeric shrubs in \r\nthe southwestern USA (Bestelmeyer et  al., 2018). Ecological effects \r\nmay occur rapidly when extreme events compound long-term trends \r\n(Hoover et  al., 2015), but evolve more slowly as opportunity costs \r\naccumulate due to warming (Cross-Chapter Paper 3) (Cunningham \r\net al., 2021)."


id: 6dcde513d2a41581d73380899d998410
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16577
content:
"The regions containing MTEs all show high confidence in projected \r\nincreases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and decreases \r\nin the intensity and frequency of cold extremes, and medium confidence\r\nin increasing ecological drought due to increased evapotranspiration \r\n(in all regions) and reduced rainfall (excluding California, USA, \r\nwhere model agreement is low) (see WGI Chapter 11). Projections \r\nalso show a robust increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy \r\nprecipitation in the event of >=2degC warming for MTEs in South Africa, \r\nthe Mediterranean Basin and California, USA, but are less clear for \r\nAustralia and Chile (Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 650f2b17df8ac584cc3b037136bc0f1e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15048
content:
"MTEs are characterised by the distinctive seasonal timing of \r\nprecipitation and temperature, and the disruption of this regime is \r\nlikely to be critical for their maintenance. Unfortunately, projections of \r\nchanges in rainfall seasonality have received less attention and are far \r\nmore uncertain than many other aspects of climate change (Pascale \r\net al., 2016; Breinl et al., 2020), thus limiting our ability to predict the \r\necological consequences of climate change in MTEs. Responses to \r\nexperimental manipulation of rainfall seasonality show the potential \r\nfor shifts in plant functional composition and diversity loss, but results \r\nvary with soil type (van Blerk et al., 2021)."


id: e821ba9b5005fe8afa2cac1ad4fedcd8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38165
content:
"Unfortunately, global- and regional-scale dynamic vegetation models \r\nshow a poor performance for large areas of MTEs, because they do not \r\ncharacterise shrub and Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM)-photosyn\u0002thetic plant functional types well (Moncrieff et al., 2015). Furthermore, \r\nthe grain of these models is too coarse for quantifying impacts to many \r\nvegetation formations which are patchy or of limited extent (e.g., small \r\nstands of trees). There is high confidence that observations of high mor\u0002tality in trees and other growth forms, reduced reproductive and recruit\u0002ment success, range shifts, community shifts towards more thermophilic \r\nspecies and type conversions are set to continue, due to either direct cli\u0002mate impacts through drought and other extreme weather events or to \r\ntheir interaction with factors like fire and pathogens (Sections 2.4.3.5, \r\n2.4.3.6; 2.4.3.7; 2.4.4.2; 2.4.4.3; 2.5.2.5, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.4)."


id: 3465f36342de950a3a6e09f3d5067df1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6454
content:
"Fire is a key driver across most MTEs due to summer-dry conditions. \r\nClimate projections for the MTEs translate into high confidence that \r\nperiods of low fuel moisture will become more severe and prolonged, \r\nand that episodes of extreme fire weather will become more frequent \r\nand severe (see (Douville et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021)). This \r\nwill lead to the birth of novel fire regimes in MTEs, characterised by \r\nan increase in the probability of greater burned area and extreme \r\nwildfire events (e.g., megafires), with associated loss of human life \r\nand property, long-term impacts on ecosystems and acceleration of \r\nthe possible loss of resilience and capacity to recover (Abatzoglou and \r\nWilliams, 2016; Gonzalez et al., 2018; Boer et al., 2020; Moreira et al., \r\n2020; Nolan et al., 2020; Duane et al., 2021; Gallagher et al., 2021)."


id: c05d34b89f50fe0aca58e16486e3e2e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31143
content:
"Fire is virtually certain to have additional impacts through compound \r\nevents (see Section  11.8 in (Seneviratne et  al., 2021)). Extreme \r\npost-fire weather is extremely likely to continue to impact diversity \r\n(Slingsby et  al., 2017), retard vegetation regrowth (Slingsby et  al., \r\n2020a) and accelerate vegetation shifts (Batllori et  al., 2019). Any \r\nincreases in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation are \r\nhighly likely to compromise soil stability in recently burnt areas \r\n(Moran-Ordonez et  al., 2020). The impacts of fire often depend on \r\ninteractions with non-climatic factors such as habitat fragmentation \r\n(Slingsby et  al., 2020b) and management (Steel et  al., 2015) or the \r\nspread of flammable exotic plantation forestry and invasive species \r\n(Kraaij et  al., 2018; McWethy et  al., 2018). Managing these factors \r\nprovides opportunities for adaptation and mitigation (Moreira et al., \r\n2020). (See sections 2.4.4.2 and 2.5.3.2)."


id: d6b7c36ceb49f58655751529f7f58695
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35083
content:
"Human adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change \r\nmay create additional threats to MTEs. MTEs have dry summers by \r\ndefinition, posing a challenge for the year-round supply of water \r\nto growing human populations and agriculture. With recent major \r\ndroughts in all MTEs (Section 2.4.3.6), there is increasing reliance on \r\ngroundwater for the bulk of the water supply (Kaiser and Macleod, \r\n2018). The majority of groundwater systems have exceeded or are \r\nrapidly approaching their environmental flow limits (de Graaf et al., \r\n2019), threatening human populations and ecosystems that depend \r\non these systems for their persistence through unfavourable climatic \r\nconditions (McLaughlin et al., 2017). Similarly, much of the MTEs are \r\nopen shrublands and grasslands and proposed extensive tree-planting \r\nto sequester atmospheric CO2 could result in a loss of biodiversity \r\nand threaten water security (Doblas-Miranda et al., 2017; Bond et al., \r\n2019)."


id: dffc6033157b46041b8adbecab2a3c55
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36650
content:
"Like the tropical forest biome, savannas are at a high risk, given \r\nthe projected climate changes in combination with LULCC (see \r\nCross-Chapter Paper 3). About 50% of the Brazilian Cerrado has been \r\nconverted to agricultural land and pastures (Lehman and Parr, 2016), \r\nand African savannas have been proposed to follow a similar tropical \r\nagricultural revolution pathway to enhance agronomic prosperity \r\n(Ryan et  al., 2016). In fact, indirect climate change impacts arising \r\nfrom mitigation efforts may be particularly perilous to savannas; \r\nextensive tree-planting to restore ecosystems and remove CO2 from \r\nthe atmosphere, as pledged, for example, under the African Forest \r\nRestoration Initiative, could lead to carbon losses and the loss of \r\nbiodiversity as well as damage the water balance if trees are planted \r\non what was naturally grassland or savanna (Box 2.2; FAQ 2.6) (Bond \r\net al., 2019)."


id: b94a488737038d393ea0607ee440a39c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29807
content:
"et  al., 2011), found in tropical and subtropical forests that birds, \r\ninvertebrates, mammals and reptiles show a decline in their probability \r\nof presence with declining forest cover, particularly pronounced in \r\nforest specialists or species with narrow ranges (Newbold et al., 2014). \r\nDifferent soil fauna groups showed different responses in abundance \r\nand diversity to climate change conditions (Coyle et al., 2017; Facey \r\net al., 2017) but these responses can impact decomposition rates and \r\nbiogeochemical cycles (medium evidence, low agreement)."


id: c9c3c56793bd65a663dbc9141f132407
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32827
content:
"Invasive plant species are predicted to expand upward by 500-\r\n1,500 m in the western Himalayas (Thapa et al., 2018), and by 6-35% \r\nyr-1 from the current extent in South America (robust evidence, high \r\nagreement) (Bhattarai and Cronin, 2014). Global assessment (Wang \r\net al., 2017) also revealed that ecoregions of high-elevation tropical \r\nforests and subtropical coniferous forests have a high risk of invasive \r\nplant expansion in low-CO2-emission scenarios, with negative impacts \r\non ecosystem functioning and local livelihoods (Shrestha et al., 2019)."


id: 10e49291fcfab63b0f812d2adbfdfbf5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 160
content:
"SLR as the result of climate change is likely to influence mangroves \r\nin all regions, with greater impact on North and Central America, \r\nAsia, Australia and East Africa than on West Africa and South America \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement) (Alongi, 2015; Ward et al., 2016). \r\nOn a small scale, mangroves are potentially moving landward (Di \r\nNitto et al., 2014), while on a large scale they will continue to expand \r\npoleward (Alongi, 2015)."


id: 8482b4a5568b008d92b8506f965314ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20459
content:
"As in the Arctic, warming substantially exceeding the global average \r\nhas already been observed in the northern parts of the temperate \r\nand boreal forest zone (Gauthier et  al., 2015), and is projected to \r\ncontinue (see Cross-Chapter Paper 6 and (Lee et  al., 2021)). As a \r\nconsequence, boreal tree species are expected to move northwards (or \r\nin mountainous regions, upwards) into regions dominated by tundra, \r\nunless constrained by edaphic features, and temperate species are \r\nprojected to grow in regions currently occupied by southern boreal \r\nforest (high confidence). In both biomes, deciduous trees are simulated \r\nto grow increasingly in regions currently dominated by conifers \r\n(Warlind et al., 2014; Boulanger et al., 2017). These simulation results \r\nhave been supported by observational examples. In eastern Siberia, \r\nfire disturbance of larch-dominated forest was followed by recovery \r\nto birch-dominated forest (Stuenzi and Schaepman-Strub, 2020). In "


id: 5f9413d976ec0b1b28c2311b569b305c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14122
content:
"Statistical models that correlate data on species abundance with \r\ninformation on human pressures, such as LUCs (Srichaichana et  al., \r\n2019), population density (Leclere et al., 2020) and hunting (Mockrin "


id: c2fd93c24e72239410e846c113f4244c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31579
content:
"Alberta, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) lost its dominant status after \r\nattacks by mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) caused \r\nthe canopy to switch to non-pine conifers and broadleaf trees (Axelson \r\net al., 2018). In contrast to the examples above, some boreal forests \r\nhave proven resilient to disturbances including recent unprecedented \r\ninsect outbreaks (Campbell et al., 2019a; Prendin et al., 2020)."


id: c1214ed1540cdcbb15caed6372f59d53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31279
content:
"2020; Loisel et  al., 2021) which are mainly caused by groundwater \r\ndrawdown (robust evidence, medium agreement) (Hirano et al., 2014; \r\nBrouns et al., 2015; Cobb et al., 2017; Itoh et al., 2017; Evans et al., \r\n2021). The overall northern peatland carbon sink has been simulated \r\nto persist for at least 300 years under RCP2.6, but not under RCP8.5 \r\n(Qiu et al., 2020)."


id: 579f774fd1aba8caa1e304faa2ad35e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12684
content:
"Reforestation, either natural or anthropogenic, leads to summer cooling \r\nand winter warming of the ground, while forest thinning or removal \r\nby fire has reverse effects, deepening the upper layer that is free of \r\npermafrost (Stuenzi et  al., 2021a). Interactions between permafrost \r\nand vegetation are important. For example, trees in the east Siberian \r\ntaiga obtained water mostly from rain in wet summers and permafrost \r\nmelt water in dry summers (Sugimoto et al., 2002), suggesting that \r\nthese forests will be particularly vulnerable to the combination of \r\ndrought with the retraction of permafrost further underground due to \r\nclimate warming."


id: 74c356e4fcd27cdbd85afeeb7309aef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17779
content:
"Regarding permafrost peatlands, studies differ, with some projecting \r\na net loss and others a net gain of carbon (medium evidence, low \r\nagreement) (Estop-Aragones et al., 2018; Hugelius et al., 2020; Loisel \r\net  al., 2021; Valiranta et  al., 2021). In some permafrost peatlands, \r\nprolonged and warmer growing seasons due to climate change \r\n(Section 2.3.4.3.1), along with increases in nitrogen deposition since \r\n1850 (Lamarque et al., 2013), are promoting plant primary productivity. \r\nOther studies indicate that increased nitrogen-mediated sequestration \r\ncould be exceeded by increased decomposition due to climate \r\nchange-driven warming and fire (medium evidence, low agreement) \r\n(Natali et al., 2012; Vonk et al., 2015; Keuper et al., 2017; Burd et al., \r\n2018; Estop-Aragones et al., 2018; Gallego-Sala et al., 2018; Serikova \r\net al., 2018; Wild et al., 2019; Chaudhary et al., 2020; Hugelius et al., \r\n2020)."


id: 46bab0d5162878c2662e83c56e3688ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9649
content:
"The combination of changes in climate and land use represents a \r\nsubstantial risk to peatland carbon stocks, but full assessment is \r\nimpeded because peatlands are yet to be included in ESMs (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement) (Loisel et al., 2021). It is expected that the \r\ncarbon balance of peatlands globally will switch from sink to source \r\nin the near future (2020-2100), mainly because tropical peatland \r\nemissions, together with those from climate change-driven permafrost \r\nthaw, will likely surpass the carbon gain expected from climate \r\nchange-driven enhanced plant productivity in northern high latitudes \r\n(Gallego-Sala et  al., 2018; Chaudhary et  al., 2020; Turetsky et  al., "


id: f3132d99f7cfafc708fb6ae9adb0c4d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40146
content:
"2020; Muller and Joos, 2020; Qiu et al., 2020; Tangang et al., 2020; \r\nTaufik et al., 2020; Turetsky et al., 2020; Chen et al., 2021a; Evans et al., \r\n2021; Loisel et al., 2021; Nelson et al., 2021; Qiu et al., 2021)."


id: f284fed69a2661c29a2cb94212155065
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40065
content:
"2.5.2.10 Committed Impacts of Climate Change on Terrestrial \r\nEcosystems and Implications of Overshoot"


id: ec156504fb09d9878e370764fe414cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38899
content:
"Projections point to potentially large changes of canopy structure and \r\ncomposition within and across the terrestrial biomes in response to \r\nclimate change and changes in atmospheric CO2. These changes will \r\ncontribute to altered ecosystem carbon uptake and losses, biophysical \r\nclimate feedbacks (Sections  2.3.2; 2.4.4; 2.5.3.2; 2.5.3.3. 2.5.3.4, \r\n2.5.3.5, Figure 2.10, Table 2.4) and multiple other ecosystem services \r\n(Sections 2.5.3, 2.5.4) as well impacts on biodiversity (Sections 2.4.2, \r\n2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.4.5, 2.5.1.3, 2.5.1.4, 2.5.2, Figure Box  2.1.1, Table \r\nBox 2.1.1, Table SM2.4). Until now, most studies project changes over \r\nnext decades until the end of this century."


id: 2e597d37e8db8fd4f4837bb190fca4be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5428
content:
"For boreal-tundra systems, AR5 projected the transformation of species \r\ncomposition, land cover and permafrost extent, decreasing albedo \r\nand increasing GHG emissions (medium confidence). SR1.5 classified \r\ntundra and boreal forests as particularly vulnerable to degradation \r\nand encroachment by woody shrubs (high confidence). The SROCC \r\nprojected climate-related changes to arctic hydrology, wildfires and \r\nabrupt thaw (high confidence) and the broad disappearance of arctic \r\nnear-surface permafrost this century, with important consequences for \r\nglobal climate (very high confidence). Chapter 2 of AR6 has focused \r\non new key findings about observed and projected changes in tundra \r\nvegetation and related hydrology, with implications for feedbacks to \r\nthe climate system."


id: 8d5fc49ef384cc160b8e938d9170a2cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22055
content:
"However, there is an increasing body of literature that has found \r\ncontinued, longer-term responses of ecosystems to climate change, \r\nso-called 'committed changes', that arise from lags that exist in many \r\nsystems. Many processes in ecosystems take more than a few decades \r\nto quasi-equilibrate to environmental changes. Therefore, the trends \r\nof changing vegetation cover identified in simulations of transient \r\nwarming continue to show up in simulations that hold climate change \r\nat low levels of warming (medium confidence) (Boulton et al., 2017; \r\nPugh et  al., 2018; Scheiter et  al., 2020). Such changes, which could \r\ntip ecosystems into an alternative state, could also be triggered by \r\na 'warming overshoot' if global warming were to exceed a certain \r\nthreshold, even if mean temperatures afterwards decline again (Albrich \r\net al., 2020a)."


id: 352a5ed967e2e23d4b8b394302c5cad8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6598
content:
"Due to the rapid warming at high northern latitudes, the Arctic tundra \r\nis one of the terrestrial biomes where climate change impacts are \r\nalready clearly visible (Settele et al., 2014; Uboni et al., 2016). Climate \r\nmodels project that warming of the Arctic is likely to continue at more \r\nthan double the global rate. Compared to the period 1995-2014, mean \r\nannual surface air temperatures in the Arctic tundra are projected to \r\nincrease by 7.9degC-10degC by the end of the century in scenarios of \r\nhigh GHG emissions (RCP7.0 and RCP8.5). In scenarios of low GHG \r\nemissions (RCP1.9 and RCP2.6), the projected increase is 2.6degC-3.2degC \r\n(Lee et  al., 2021). The Arctic is also projected to have amongst the \r\nlargest increases in precipitation globally, but with high uncertainty. \r\nIn contrast to climate change, LUC is projected to be very low in Arctic \r\ntundra systems (van Asselen and Verburg, 2013)."


id: 8dd2a0a613e654a216406150774af99a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22140
content:
"Figure Box 2.1.1 |  Observed changes in the distribution of plant functional types that are caused by climate change or a combination of land use \r\nand climate change. Shifts in plant functional types are indicative of shift in biome function and structure. Based upon studies listed in Table SM2.4 and section 2.4."


id: 1ccbf6f11df387475513e686d6f5284a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2249
content:
"Table Box 2.1.1 |  Comparison of projections on biome change from AR3, AR4 and AR5 (IPCC, 2001; Fischlin et al., 2007; Settele et al., 2014), with observed changes \r\nin ecosystems as assessed in this report (see Section 2.4, Figure Box 2.1.1, Table SM2.4). Observed changes marked in bold show good agreement with past projections; \r\nthose in red show mismatch with observations and projections."


id: b961d4678e52f82b1eef0b7d03c8b54c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29828
content:
"Projections of the future of Mediterranean shrublands, deserts, xeric shrublands and temperate grassy systems are limited, making \r\nassessment of this relationship less clear. It is also unclear, due to limited observations, how widespread a shift there is from deciduous \r\nforest species to evergreen forest species. Some observations suggest this is occurring, but it is not clear how widespread this change is \r\nand if the geographical pattern is as projected."


id: db91bce080dac9c83cc9f7284c169caa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35914
content:
"Under a climate change scenario of ~3.5degC temperature increase \r\nby 2070, current climate could disappear from individual protected \r\nareas that comprise half the global protected area, and novel climates \r\n(climate conditions that are currently not present in an individual \r\nprotected area) could emerge in half the global protected area \r\n(Hoffmann et al., 2019b). A lower-emissions scenario of ~1.5degC could \r\nreduce the disappearance of current climate conditions to 40% and the \r\nexposure to novel climates to 41% (Hoffmann et al., 2019b). Models \r\nproject the highest exposure to novel climates in subtropical projected \r\nareas (Hoffmann and Beierkuhnlein, 2020). Projected disappearance \r\nof current climate conditions in protected areas is most extensive in \r\nAfrica, Oceania, and North and South America (Elsen et al., 2020)."


id: c77f3bc485b7e7c13173e5242d44c0cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32410
content:
"National parks and other protected areas which, in June 2021, covered \r\n15.7% of the global terrestrial area (UNEP-WCMC et  al., 2021), \r\nconserve greater biodiversity than adjacent unprotected areas (Gray \r\net al., 2016), and protect one-fifth of global vegetation carbon stocks \r\nand one-tenth of global soil carbon stocks (Section 2.4.4.4). This section \r\nassesses climate change specifically in protected areas. Even though it \r\nis included in a part of the chapter on projected risks, it includes both \r\nobserved exposure and projected risks to gather the information on \r\nprotected areas into one place."


id: d2b50c13bc7d7c4805199a1b61d9953a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34417
content:
"Continued climate change increases the risks to individual species and \r\nvegetation types in protected areas. Under a climate change scenario \r\nof 4degC temperature increase by 2100, the suitable climate for two \r\nspecies of baobab trees (Adansonia perrieri and A. suarezensis) in "


id: baf7bf7543a49de8bb67bf3e0aa3d18b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30107
content:
"and Lasslop, 2017) and projected increases of fire frequency to ~20% \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2015). Continued climate change \r\ncould further lengthen fire weather seasons (Ranasinghe et al., 2021). \r\nModels combining projected climate change with potential agricultural \r\nexpansion project decreases in total burned area (Huang et al., 2015; \r\nKnorr et al., 2016b; Park et al., 2021). The area of projected increases in \r\nburned area and fire frequency due solely to continued climate change \r\nis higher for the world as a whole than the area of projected decreases \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 7719016af11444111e608d0c6cdd300d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18151
content:
"Madagascar could shift entirely out of the protected areas network \r\n(Vieilledent et al., 2013). Other species and vegetation types at risk \r\nfrom the partial disappearance of suitable climate in protected areas \r\ninclude Atlantic Forest amphibians in Brazil (Lemes et al., 2014), birds \r\nin Finland (Virkkala et al., 2013), birds and trees in Canada and Mexico \r\n(Stralberg et al., 2020), bog woodlands in Germany (Steinacker et al., \r\n2019), butterflies and mammals in Egypt (Leach et  al., 2013) and \r\ntropical dry forests in Mexico (Prieto-Torres et  al., 2016). Projected \r\ndisappearance of suitable climate conditions in protected areas \r\nincrease risks to the survival of species and vegetation types of \r\nconservation concern in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems \r\n(high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Paper 1)."


id: 60c17aed221f4f53251a912f07f73dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14318
content:
"Increased wildfire due to continued climate change increases risks \r\nof tree mortality (Sections  2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.3.2), biome shifts \r\n(Section  2.5.2.2) and carbon emissions (Sections  2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.4). \r\nWildfire and biome shifts under a projected climate change of 4degC \r\nabove the pre-industrial period, combined with international trade \r\nand transport, cause high risks from invasive species across one-sixth \r\nof the global area including extensive high-biodiversity regions (Early \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 2c3b3c6826227d1584e85beb904401e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5045
content:
"Protected rivers, lakes and other freshwater protected areas require \r\ninter-catchment connectivity to maintain species and population \r\nmovements (Bush et al., 2014a; Hermoso et al., 2016; Thieme et al., \r\n2016), but dams and other barriers interrupt connectivity (Grill et al., \r\n2019). Climate change could also reduce freshwater connectivity \r\n(Section 2.3.3.3). Globally, over two-thirds of river reaches (by length) \r\nlack protected areas in their upstream catchments and nine-tenths \r\nof river reaches (by length) do not achieve full, integrated protection \r\n(Abell et al., 2017)."


id: e87bd2ab4f4073c030f61e23fc29866c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38238
content:
"Regions identified by multiple global analyses as being at a high risk \r\nof increased burned area, fire frequency and fire weather include: the \r\nAmazon (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2015; Knorr et al., 2016b; \r\nBurton et al., 2018; Abatzoglou et al., 2019), Mediterranean Europe \r\n(Gonzalez et al., 2010; Burton et al., 2018; Abatzoglou et al., 2019), \r\nthe Arctic tundra (Moritz et al., 2012; Flannigan et al., 2013), Western \r\nAustralia (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Burton et al., 2018; Abatzoglou et al., \r\n2019) and the western USA (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Moritz et al., 2012; \r\nKnorr et al., 2016b). Higher-resolution spatial projections indicate high \r\nrisks of increased wildfire in the Amazon, Australia, boreal ecosystems, \r\nMediterranean Europe and the USA with climate change (medium \r\nevidence, medium agreement)."


id: 1e394705c77588e5cc1977d1da1e5abd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2516
content:
"Continued climate change under high-emission scenarios that increase \r\nglobal temperature ~4degC by 2100 could increase global burned area \r\nby 50% (Knorr et al., 2016b) to 70% (Kloster and Lasslop, 2017) and \r\nglobal mean fire frequency by ~30% (Gonzalez et  al., 2010), with \r\nincreases on one-third (Gonzalez et  al., 2010) to two-thirds (Moritz \r\net al., 2012) and decreases on one-fifth (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Moritz \r\net  al., 2012) of land globally. Lower emissions that would limit the \r\nglobal temperature increase to <2degC would reduce projected increases \r\nof global burned area to 30% (Lange et  al., 2020) to 35% (Kloster "


id: dd71575c24c3e0cb5e789d931a89312a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36226
content:
"In the Amazon, climate change under RCP8.5, combined with high \r\ndeforestation, could double the area of high fire probability (Fonseca \r\net al., 2019), double the burned area by 2050 (Brando et al., 2020), \r\nincrease the burned area by 400-2800% by 2100 (Le Page et al., 2017) "


id: 442837f1aad55060055d0ad2875df79
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9229
content:
"climate change could increase invasive grasses and wildfire in desert \r\necosystems of the southwestern USA where wildfire has historically \r\nbeen absent or infrequent, and increase the mortality of the sparse \r\ntree cover (Horn and St. Clair, 2017; Klinger and Brooks, 2017; Syphard \r\net al., 2017; Moloney et al., 2019; Sweet et al., 2019)."


id: bf30cd4666101e26b0a29d4b6eb4fe0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30909
content:
"In Australia, climate change under RCP8.5 increases the risk of \r\npyro-convective fire by 20-40 days in rangelands of Western Australia, \r\nSouth Australia and the Northern Territory (Dowdy et  al., 2019). \r\nPyro-convective fire conditions could reach more frequently into the \r\nmore populated areas of New South Wales, particularly at the start \r\nof the austral summer (Di Virgilio et al., 2019). GCMs do not agree, \r\nhowever, on the areas of projected fire increase in New South Wales \r\n(Clarke and Evans, 2019). Increases in heat and potential increases in \r\nwildfire threaten the existence of temperature montane rainforest in \r\nTasmania, Australia (Mariani et al., 2019)."


id: 8736172591c54121896bb3b70aa4636c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20950
content:
"Under continued climate change, increased temperature, aridity, \r\ndrought, wildfire (Section  2.5.3.2) and insect infestations \r\n(Section  2.4.4.3.3) will tend to increase tree mortality across many \r\nparts of the world (McDowell et al., 2020). Loss of boreal and temperate \r\nforest to fire, wind and bark beetles could cause more negative than \r\npositive effects for most ecosystem services, including carbon storage \r\nto regulate climate change (Sections 2.4.4.3, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.3.4), \r\nwater supply for people (Section  2.5.3.6.1), timber production and \r\nother forest products (Chapter 5) and protection from hazards (Thom \r\nand Seidl, 2016). In addition, deforestation in tropical and temperate \r\nforests can increase local temperatures by 0.3degC-2degC (Hesslerova \r\net al., 2018; Lejeune et al., 2018; Zeppetello et al., 2020) and this effect \r\ncan extend up to 50 km (Cohn et al., 2019)."


id: 7d7ccff922790816ca9e8003e5137789
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19246
content:
"In Mediterranean Europe, climate change of 3degC of warming could \r\ndouble or triple the burned area whereas keeping the temperature \r\nincrease to 1.5degC could limit the increase in burned area to 40-50% \r\n(Turco et al., 2018). Under RCP8.5, the frequency of heat-induced fire \r\nweather could increase by 30% (Ruffault et  al., 2020). Severe fire \r\nfollowed by drought could cause biome shifts of forest to non-forest \r\n(Batllori et al., 2019) and tree mortality >50% (Dupire et al., 2019)."


id: f1e16b9085733818e66faa4c221b3063
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39940
content:
"In the Arctic tundra, boreal forests and northern peatlands, \r\nincluding permafrost areas, climate change under the scenario of \r\na 4degC temperature increase could triple the burned area in Canada \r\n(Boulanger et al., 2014), double the number of fires in Finland (Lehtonen \r\net al., 2016), increase the lightning-driven burned area by 30-250% \r\n(Veraverbeke et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2021a), push half of the area \r\nof tundra and boreal forest in Alaska above the burning threshold \r\ntemperature and double the burned area in Alaska (Young et  al., \r\n2017a). Thawing of Arctic permafrost due to a projected temperature \r\nof 4degC and the resultant wildfires could release 11-200 GtC which \r\ncould substantially exacerbate climate change (Section 2.5.2.9)."


id: b943965823a12d9e127fbc888d191478
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29802
content:
"In the USA, climate change under RCP8.5 could increase the burned \r\narea by 60-80% by 2049 (Buotte et al., 2019) and the number of fires \r\nwith an area >50 km2\r\n by 300-400% by 2070 (Barbero et al., 2015). \r\nIn montane forests, climate change under RCP8.5 increases the risk \r\nof fire-facilitated conversion of ~7% of forest to non-forest by 2050 \r\n(Parks et al., 2019). In California, climate change under a scenario of \r\na 4degC temperature increase could double fire frequency in some areas \r\n(Mann et al., 2016), but emission reductions that limit the temperature \r\nincrease to ~2degC could keep this from increasing (Westerling et al., \r\n2011). Carbon dioxide fertilisation and increased temperature under "


id: 38e592d0e171678875ebae8b5d33da6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7210
content:
"system feedback (Wang et al., 2020c). Peatlands, permafrost regions \r\nand tropical ecosystems are particularly vulnerable due to their \r\nlarge carbon stocks, in combination with over-proportional warming, \r\nincreases in heat waves and droughts and/or a complex interplay of \r\nclimate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 (Sections  2.5.2.8, \r\n2.5.2.9, 2.5.3.2)."


id: e3190ca92e20d174b909a95133c32bc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37250
content:
"reducing tropical forest areas in Africa and South America by up to \r\nhalf under a 4degC increase above the pre-industrial period, but a lower \r\nprojection of a 2degC increase could limit the projected increases in tree \r\nmortality (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 8e222beef29afd770858ccc1385f84ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22204
content:
"For tropical and subtropical regions, the interplay of atmospheric CO2\r\nwith precipitation and temperature becomes of particular importance \r\nfor future carbon uptake, since in warm and dry environments, elevated \r\nCO2 fosters plants with C3 photosynthesis and enhances their water-use \r\nefficiency relative to C4 species (Moncrieff et al., 2014a; Midgley and "


id: 9bb3b49979c6bbb7bc8e53d934c29d80
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24650
content:
"Enhanced carbon losses from terrestrial systems further limit the \r\navailable carbon budget for global warming staying below 1.5degC (Rogelj \r\net al., 2018). Analyses of satellite remote sensing and ground-based \r\nobservations have indicated that, between 1982 and 2015, the CO2\r\nfertilisation effect has already declined, implying a negative climate "


id: b0f1cbd3a562b04699748e059294f688
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28359
content:
"The lack of simulation studies that seek to quantify all important \r\ninteracting factors (CO2, drought and fire) for future carbon cycling in \r\nsavannas and tropical forests and the apparent disagreement between \r\ntrends projected in models compared to data-driven estimates result \r\nin low confidence regarding the direction or magnitude of carbon flux \r\nand pool-size changes. Similar to tropical peatlands, given projected \r\nhuman population growth and socioeconomic changes, the continued \r\nconversion of forests and savannas into agricultural or pasture systems \r\nvery likely poses a significant risk of rapid carbon loss which will amplify \r\nthe climate change-induced risks substantially (high confidence) \r\n(2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.5) (Aragao et al., 2014; Searchinger et al., 2015; Aleman \r\net al., 2016; Nobre et al., 2016)."


id: 577c707d3cdcf748d8f769c4b9881b85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12658
content:
"The impacts of climate-induced altered animal composition and \r\ntrophic cascades on land-ecosystem carbon cycling globally are as \r\nyet unquantified (Schmitz et al., 2018), even though climate change "


id: b241efb0b137e0eb84a5ca3c69c163fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28597
content:
"Table 2.4 |  Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem feedbacks which affect the Earth's climate system dynamics, according to (Pravalie, 2018)."


id: 9b833e95f7c9e959dce4ecb6594597ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24608
content:
"Land ecosystems contribute substantially to global emissions of \r\nnitrous oxide and methane. As with CO2, these emissions respond both "


id: 2b66531df7daf1d077799f1ccfedd6d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4884
content:
"has been estimated to stem from natural ecosystems, especially in \r\nthe Tropics (Tian et al., 2019; Canadell et al., 2021), while freshwater \r\nwetlands and peatlands are estimated to contribute between 83% \r\n(top-down estimates) and 40% (bottom-up estimates) of total natural \r\nCH4 (and 31 and 20% of total methane emissions, respectively) for \r\nthe period 2008-2017 (Canadell et al., 2021). Median CH4 emissions \r\nfrom northern-latitude wetlands in 2100 were estimated to be 12.1 \r\nand 13.5 PgC in emission scenarios leading to 1.5degC and 2degC warming, \r\nrespectively (Comyn-Platt et al., 2018). Likewise, global warming has \r\nbeen attributed to soil N2O emission increases since the pre-industrial \r\nperiod of 0.8 (0.3-1.3) TgN yr-1 (Tian et  al., 2020). Overall, climate \r\nfeedbacks from future altered land ecosystem emissions of CH4 or N2O \r\nare uncertain, but are expected to be small (Canadell et al., 2021)."


id: 24daaac75ae5e1adf8df6fdd8b2dd797
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3678
content:
"atmosphere feedbacks that arise from changes in vegetation cover and \r\nsubsequently altered albedo, evapotranspiration or roughness (often \r\nsummarised as biophysical feedbacks) can be regionally relevant and \r\ncould amplify or dampen vegetation cover changes (Jia et al., 2019)."


id: 79bfbf2e1099a9e211f65c3dc30f75c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18627
content:
"Changes in regional biodiversity are integral parts of ecosystem-cli\u0002mate feedback loops, including and beyond carbon cycle processes \r\n(Figure 2.10; Table 2.4). For instance, the impacts of climate-induced \r\naltered animal composition and trophic cascades on ecosystem carbon \r\nturnover (see Sections 2.4.4.4, 2.5.3.4) could be a substantive contribu\u0002tion to carbon-climate feedbacks (low confidence). Additional surface-"


id: 1f95ea66b5a63eac89e1f48f4b388b8a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2767
content:
"N2O account for 75, 23 and 2% of the total CO2-equivalent emissions, \r\nrespectively, in lakes (DelSontro et al., 2018)."


id: 7c9c921ee3fbc1ed477b2407e609459e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19121
content:
"precipitation (Section 2.5.2.6) (Jia et al., 2019). In savannas, restoration \r\nof woody vegetation has been shown to enhance cloud formation and \r\nprecipitation in response to enhanced transpiration and turbulent \r\nmixing, leading to a positive feedback on woody cover (Syktus and \r\nMcAlpine, 2016). While this has not yet been systematically explored, \r\nsimilar feedbacks might also emerge from a CO2-induced woody cover \r\nincrease in savannas (low confidence) (Section 2.5.2.5)."


id: 7931129831281f14aadb0b23e9322625
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18516
content:
"Furthermore, the exposure of lake and river sediments during droughts \r\nactivates the decomposition of buried organic carbon. In dry river \r\nbeds, mineralisation of buried organic matter is likely to increase with \r\nclimate change as anoxic sediments are oxygenated downwards during \r\ndrying, along with pulses of microbial activity following re-wetting \r\nof desiccated sediment. Conservative estimates indicate that adding \r\nemissions from exposed sediments of dry inland waters across diverse \r\necosystem types and climate zones to current global estimates of CO2\r\nemissions could result in a 6% (~0.12 PgC yr-1) increase of total inland \r\nwater CO2 emission rates covering streams and rivers (334 mmol m-2\r\nday-1), lakes and reservoirs (320 mmol m-2 day-1) and small ponds \r\n(148 mmol m-2 day-1) (Marce et al., 2019; Keller et al., 2020)."


id: 1232b33cd519bd3bf61f7b952dddddcd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 395
content:
"Since biophysical feedbacks can contribute to both surface temperature \r\nwarming or cooling, analyses so far suggest that, on a global scale, the \r\nnet impact on climate change is small (Perugini et al., 2017; Jia et al., \r\n2019), unless these feedbacks also accelerate vegetation mortality and \r\nlead to substantive carbon losses (Zemp et al., 2017a; Lemordant and \r\nGentine, 2019). More than one-third of the Earth's land surface has \r\nat least 50% of its evapotranspiration regulated by vegetation, and in \r\nsome regions between 40 and >80% of the land's evaporated water is \r\nreturned to land as precipitation. Locally, both directly human-mediated \r\nand climate change-mediated changes in vegetation cover can \r\ntherefore notably affect annual average freshwater availability to \r\nhuman societies, especially if negative feedbacks amplify the reduction \r\nof vegetation cover, evapotranspiration and precipitation (medium \r\nconfidence) (Keys et al., 2016; Keys and Wang-Erlandsson, 2018)."


id: 2584d880387dd55327233fa934a8ff77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3787
content:
"Since AR5, freshwater ecosystems (lakes, reservoirs, rivers and ponds) \r\nhave been increasingly recognised as important sources of GHG \r\nemissions (CO2, CH4 and N2O) into the atmosphere. Key mechanisms \r\nwhich contribute to rising GHG emissions from freshwater ecosystems \r\nare the temperature imbalance between photosynthesis and \r\nrespiration (respiration increases more than photosynthesis with rising \r\ntemperature), CO2 and CH4 emissions from exposed sediments during \r\ndroughts, increased transport of matter from land to water, changes in \r\nwater retention time in rivers and lakes and the effects of temperature \r\non lake stratification and anoxia that favour CH4 emissions."


id: ce888ec0d5dc5def67c04270bbab4194
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33679
content:
"DelSontro et al. (2018) assembled the largest global data set to date \r\non emission rates from lakes of CO2, CH4 and N2O and found that \r\nthey co-vary with lake size and trophic state. They estimated that \r\nmoderate global increases in eutrophication of lakes could translate to \r\n5-40% increases in the GHG effect in the atmosphere. Moreover, they \r\nestimated that GHG emissions from lakes and impoundments in past \r\ndecades accounted for 1.25-2.30 PgCO2 yr-1 (DelSontro et al., 2018), \r\nthus around 20% of global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil \r\nfuels (9.4 PgCO2 yr-1) (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)."


id: 497458b460c1680ad0ddf5f2cb998d70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10147
content:
"Global warming will strongly enhance freshwater CH4 emissions through \r\na disproportionate increase in ebullition (gas flux) by 6-20% per 1degC \r\nincrease in water temperature (Aben et al., 2017). It can be expected that \r\nongoing eutrophication enhanced by climate change-related increases \r\nin the release of sediment nutrients and the loading of organic carbon \r\nand nutrients from catchments will enhance CH4 ebullition on a global \r\nscale (Aben et al., 2017; DelSontro et al., 2018; Bartosiewicz et al., 2019; \r\nBeaulieu et al., 2019; Sanches et al., 2019). The strongest increase in \r\nebullition is expected in shallow waters where sediment temperatures \r\nare strongly related to atmospheric temperature (Aben et  al., 2017). \r\nGiven that small ponds and shallow lakes are the most abundant \r\nfreshwater ecosystems globally, these may become hot spots of CH4 \r\nebullition in the future (Aben et al., 2017). On average, CH4, CO2 and "


id: 7ab39925a109ec58567148037bdcd0f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18785
content:
"AR5 named water supply and biodiversity as freshwater ecosystem \r\nservices vulnerable to climate change. We discuss the risks to these "


id: 12d0a5f45fa8639eac656e0ae389ac4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 519
content:
"of a 3.5degC temperature increase could reduce drinking water supplies \r\nby half by 2100 (Bangash et al., 2013)."


id: 24394090cc606c8d4436fa19d62e8313
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3564
content:
"and to additional services identified by model projections based \r\nboth on climate-change scenarios (Schroter et  al., 2005; Boithias \r\net al., 2014; Huang et al., 2019; Jorda-Capdevila et al., 2019) and on \r\nthe Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (high \r\nconfidence) (CICES, 2018). The effects of floods, droughts, permafrost \r\nand glacier-melting on global changes in water quality, particularly with \r\nrespect to contamination with pollutants, are described in Section 4.2.6."


id: ccb2cda6aa50f9e997ea2d4ac5376094
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33340
content:
"Changes in algal biomass development and the spread of cyanobacteria \r\nblooms, related to global warming, resemble those triggered by \r\neutrophication with the well-known negative effects on the services \r\nlakes provide, particularly for drinking water provision and recreation \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement, high confidence) (Carvalho et al., \r\n2013; Adrian et al., 2016; Gozlan et al., 2019)."


id: c9c4d856a1528b960e4f431101d0ea37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32828
content:
"Forests and other vegetated ecosystems assist the production of \r\ndrinkable water by facilitating the infiltration of rainfall and snowfall \r\ninto the ground, where water either moves through the saturated soil \r\nzone to supply streams and other surface waters or infiltrates further \r\nto recharge groundwater aquifers (Ellison et  al., 2012; Bonnesoeur \r\net al., 2019). Globally, 4 billion people depend on forested watersheds \r\nfor drinking water (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016). Chapter 4 assesses \r\nthe physical science of water supply, including precipitation, runoff \r\nand hydrology as well as the social aspects of human water use. This \r\nsection assesses the ecological aspects of risks to freshwater supplies \r\nfor people."


id: c83b3713ebefc31b5790be82032386a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32538
content:
"In summary, climate change increases risks to the integrity of \r\nwatersheds and the provision of safe, acceptable freshwater to people \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: fe833e50d60b9fb6ab4ec6286402cefe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42150
content:
"Climate change will increase water temperatures and decrease \r\ndissolved oxygen levels (Section 2.3.1), impacting freshwater fisheries \r\nwhich form an important ecosystem service (Vari et al., 2022). People \r\nliving in the vicinity of cold lakes will be affected by projected losses \r\nof ice. In a worst-case scenario (an air temperatures increase of 8degC), \r\n230,400 lakes and 656 million people in 50 countries will be impacted \r\n(Reid et al., 2019; Sharma et al., 2019). Winter ice-fishing (Orru et al., \r\n2014), transportation via ice roads (Prowse et al., 2011) and cultural \r\nactivities (Magnuson and Lathrop, 2014) are ecosystem services at \r\nstake from the ongoing loss of lake ice."


id: 634ab2f33fa294a2ec765df1f4624f4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14765
content:
"Eutrophication of central European lakes has wiped out a significant \r\nproportion of the endemic fish fauna (Vonlanthen et  al., 2012), so \r\nclimate-induced further eutrophication is expected to represent an \r\nadditional threat to fish fauna and commercial fisheries (Ficke et al., \r\n2007). Given that the ecological consequences of lake warming may \r\nbe especially strong in the Tropics (Section 2.3.1.1), ecosystem services \r\nmay be most affected there. Tropical lakes support important fisheries \r\n(Lynch et al., 2016a; McIntyre et al., 2016) that provide a critical source \r\nof nutrition to adjacent human populations. These lakes are especially \r\nprone to the loss of deep-water oxygen due to warming, with adverse \r\nconsequences for the productivity of fisheries and for biodiversity \r\n(medium evidence, medium agreement) (Lewis Jr, 2000; Van Bocxlaer \r\net al., 2012)."


id: 1c7020513c3875bc55427ff61ad10a1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2192
content:
"Net effects of deforestation and afforestation on runoff and water \r\nsupply depend on local factors, leading to conflicting evidence of \r\neffects of land cover change (Ellison et al., 2012; Chen et al., 2021b), \r\nbut combinations of climate change and deforestation are projected \r\nto reduce water flows (Olivares et al., 2019). In southern Thailand, the \r\ncombination of the conversion of forest to rubber plantations and a \r\none-third increase in rainfall could increase erosion and sediment load \r\nby 15% (Trisurat et al., 2016). In the watershed that supplies Sao Paulo, \r\nBrazil, afforestation could increase water quantity and quality (Ferreira \r\net al., 2019). In most regions with dry or Mediterranean subtropical \r\nclimates, projected climate change can reduce surface water and \r\ngroundwater resources (Doell et al., 2015). In northeast Spain, reduced \r\nprecipitation and vegetation cover under the high-emissions scenario "


id: 9b2ecd17d82b11092bde85f89a29bc2f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24551
content:
"measures of risk are interconnected, but approach the assessment of \r\nthe risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosytems from different angles, \r\nusing complementary metrics."


id: b4ab61a40fcf710e8f5e059e239a85a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29038
content:
"Tropical lakes tend to be hotspots of freshwater biodiversity (Vadebon\u0002coeur et al., 2011; Brawand et al., 2014; Sterner et al., 2020); ancient \r\ntropical lakes such as Malawi, Tanganyika, Victoria, Titicaca, Towuti \r\nand Matano hold thousands of animal species found nowhere else \r\n(Vadeboncoeur et al., 2011). While biodiversity and several ecosystem \r\nservices can be considered synergistic (food webs, tourism and of aes\u0002thetic and spiritual value) (Langhans et al., 2019), others can be con\u0002sidered antagonistic in case of a strong ecosystem service demand \r\n(such as water abstraction, water use and food security in terms of \r\noverexploitation). Here, the balance between biodiversity and eco\u0002system services is key (Langhans et al., 2019), where biodiversity can \r\nbe integrated into water policy by means of integrated water resource \r\nmanagement (IWRM) towards NbS (Ligtvoet et al., 2017)"


id: 229baf4ec174fa433427b58eafc449c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3304
content:
"Global rates of species extinction are accelerating dramatically \r\n(Barnosky et  al., 2011), with approximately 10% of species having \r\nbeen driven extinct by humans since the late Pleistocene, principally \r\nby overexploitation and habitat destruction, a rate estimated to be \r\n1000  times higher than pre-Anthropocene (natural) background \r\nextinction rates (De Vos et al., 2015). Therefore, this level--10%--of \r\nspecies becoming \"endangered\" (sensu IUCN),and therefore at high\r\nrisk of extinction, due to the loss of suitable climate space (Figure 2.8b), \r\nis used here as a threshold, moving the risk to biodiversity from \r\nmoderate to high, and twice that (20%) as the threshold from high\r\nto very high."


id: a7c3bedc3f830367ad712abe9c1b39b9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26730
content:
"Very high = Very high probability of severe impacts or risks and \r\nthe presence of significant irreversibility or the persistence of \r\nclimate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt; \r\nHigh = Significant and widespread impacts or risks; \r\nModerate = Impacts or risks are detectable and attributable to\r\nclimate change with at least medium confidence; \r\nUndetectable = Impacts or risks are undetectable. "


id: 78905ac01489cd2221fb53380fa035ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18410
content:
"Human health and well-being are highly dependent on the 'health' of nature. Nature provides material and economic services that are \r\nessential for human health and productive livelihoods. Studies also show that being in 'direct contact with natural environments' has direct \r\npositive effects on well-being, health and socio-cognitive abilities. Therefore, the loss of species and biodiversity due to climate change will \r\nreduce natural spaces and, in turn, decrease human well-being and health worldwide."


id: 7b6ea636836847f700638ef169727def
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18915
content:
"Figure FAQ2.4.1 |  The positive relationship between human health and well-being and nature conservation. Nature provides essential services \r\nto humans including material and economic services (i.e., ecosystem services) as well as cultural, experiential and recreational services, which, in turn, enhance \r\nhuman psychological and physical health and well-being. People who are more connected to nature are not only happier and healthier but are also more likely \r\nto engage in pro-nature behaviours, making the enhancement of human-nature connectedness worldwide a valuable win-win solution for humans and nature \r\nto face environmental challenges."


id: 752b10dff0e1a5f7e575ac0808d88504
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17851
content:
"The number of species that can be lost before negative impacts occur is not known and is likely to differ in different \r\nsystems. However, in general, more diverse systems are more resilient to disturbances and able to recover from \r\nextreme events more quickly. Biodiversity loss means there are fewer connections within an ecosystem. A simpler \r\nfood web with fewer interactions means less redundancy in the system, reducing the stability and ability of plants \r\nand animal communities to recover from disturbances and extreme weather events such as floods and drought."


id: 554e8d9b2575272bb8360df3f25ca435
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12290
content:
"In addition to 'material' and economic services such as eco-tourism, nature also provides cultural services such as \r\nrecreation, spirituality and well-being. Specifically, being in 'direct contact with natural environments' (vs. an urban \r\nenvironment) has a high positive impact on human well-being (e.g., mood, happiness), psychological and physical \r\nhealth (energy, vitality, heart rate, depression) and socio-cognitive abilities (attention, memory, hyperactivity, \r\naltruism, cooperation). Therefore, the loss of species from climate change and urbanisation will reduce natural \r\nspaces, decrease biodiversity, and, in turn, decrease human well-being and health worldwide."


id: 95d6f35ff2a6fd970ddcbb38fca01c21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23561
content:
"Finally, the extent to which humans consider themselves part of the natural world--known as human-nature \r\nconnectedness--has been demonstrated to be closely associated with human health and well-being. Individuals \r\nwho are more connected to nature are not only happier and healthier but also tend to engage more in pro-nature \r\nbehaviours, making the enhancement of human-nature connectedness worldwide a valuable win-win solution for \r\nhumans and nature to face environmental challenges."


id: 939fe4ec97e872745c262613865fe18c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23177
content:
"Adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and their services \r\nto climate change has been addressed in previous IPCC reports, \r\nwith AR4 and AR5 recognising both autonomous adaptation and \r\nhuman-assisted adaptation to protect natural species and ecosystems. \r\nIn AR5, Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), adaptation for people, \r\nbased on the better protection, restoration and management of the \r\nnatural environment, was identified as an area of emerging opportunity, \r\nwith a dedicated Cross-Chapter Box on the topic. In the SRCCL, \r\nconservation, EbA and related concepts were integrated throughout; \r\nSR1.5 also noted the role of EbA. Since the last assessment report, the \r\nscientific literature has expanded considerably, with growing interest \r\nin the concept of Nature-based Solutions (NbS). This section assesses \r\nthis new literature and its implications for the implementation of \r\nclimate change adaptation."


id: e6fd24c06e678698fbf46e99645c7345
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37928
content:
"It is worth briefly considering some key concepts that are relevant to \r\nadaptation in ecosystems. Adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems \r\ncan encompass both managing change and building resilience. We use \r\nthe definition of 'resilience' set out Chapter 1: 'the capacity of social, \r\neconomic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or \r\ntrend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain \r\ntheir essential function, identity and structure while also maintaining \r\nthe capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation'. This includes \r\nthe concept of 'resistance', which is used in some ecological literature \r\nto distinguish systems which are resistant to change from those that \r\nrecover quickly from change. We consider both interventions designed \r\nprimarily to protect biodiversity and those intended to reduce the risks \r\nof climate change to people."


id: 3843d4b70137de71593c473dfa6ad3a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7107
content:
"Previous sections of this chapter have set out the vulnerability of \r\nnatural and semi-natural ecosystems to climate change, and the risks \r\nthis poses to both biodiversity and ecosystem services (also sometimes \r\ndescribed as 'Nature's Contributions to People'). Natural systems \r\nrespond to climatic and other environmental changes in a variety of \r\nways. Individual organisms can respond through growth, movement \r\nand developmental processes. Species and populations genetically \r\nadapt to changing conditions and evolve over successive generations. \r\nGeomorphological features, such as the path of watercourses, can also \r\nchange naturally in response to climate change. However, there is a \r\nlimit to which these natural processes can maintain biodiversity and \r\nthe benefits people derive from nature, partly due to intrinsic limits, \r\nbut also because of the pressures that people exert on the natural \r\nenvironment."


id: cfa856f495b086e0df907e8fc92e44a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33893
content:
"A variety of terms are used to describe using environmental management \r\nto reduce the impacts of climate change on people in ways that also \r\nbenefit biodiversity in the scientific literature, particularly EbA and NbS \r\n(see also Section 1.4). EbA is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem "


id: bf1d280d7afdf40d7a2ac0723ba8a2a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30898
content:
"Whilst we distinguish between adaptation for biodiversity and EbA, it \r\nis important to recognise that the two are linked in that, if ecosystems \r\nthemselves are not resilient to climate change, they will not be able \r\nto provide adaptation benefits for people. The case for resourcing \r\nbiodiversity conservation and building the resilience of ecosystems is \r\nalso strengthened when there are direct benefits for people in addition \r\nto the more general benefits of biodiversity."


id: 34266c7f0be18a7f3c3b6c260425840b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6413
content:
"Ecosystems are specifically included in the adaptation goals set out in \r\nthe Paris Agreement and are addressed in most national adaptation \r\nplans (Seddon et  al., 2020b). There are also now a large number \r\nof adaptation programmes and plans for local governments and \r\ngovernmental and non-governmental conservation organisations. \r\nAdaptation for and by ecosystems needs to be understood and \r\ndeveloped in the wider contexts of conservation, climate resilient \r\ndevelopment and sustainable development. There are significant \r\npotential synergies but also conflicts between different objectives \r\nwhich require an integrated approach (covered further in 2.6.7)."


id: f6a4fe80ef463b8106026b920d3cc639
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40766
content:
"Natural ecosystems often have a high degree of resilience and can, to \r\nsome extent, adjust to change. Species can adjust through evolutionary \r\nadaptation, distribution change, behavioural change, developmental \r\nplasticity and ecophysiological adjustment. There are, however, limits \r\nto autonomous adaptation, because of intrinsic limitations, the rate \r\nat which the climate is changing and the degraded state of many \r\necosystems."


id: 9c8387516ed1d81e46e40d5a5b09023e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24787
content:
"larger areas of semi-natural habitat are associated with increased \r\nresilience to ongoing climate change and extreme events as well as \r\nthe capacity to colonise new areas (Haslem et al., 2015; Oliver et al., \r\n2017; Papanikolaou et al., 2017). Larger habitat patches can support \r\nlarger populations of a given species, which are more likely to maintain \r\nthemselves and recover from periods of adverse conditions. Inhabiting \r\na large patch size has been found to increase the resilience of some \r\npopulations of species to extreme events such as droughts (Oliver \r\net al., 2015b). They are also more likely to provide a range of different \r\nresources and microclimate conditions, which may increase the \r\nchances of the persistence of species under climate change. A larger \r\narea of habitat may also enable greater connectivity between patches \r\nand increase the chances of species colonising new areas as they track \r\nclimate change (Oliver et al., 2015b)."


id: 6801eaa42aba6ba3eae20bc40bc9e3e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15566
content:
"losses (including some with potentially catastrophic consequences) \r\ncannot be prevented; this is discussed further in Section 2.6.6."


id: 8a6d82d6b0c39cc4efb11723a81cedbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21521
content:
"To date, most scientific literature on adaptation to reduce the risks to \r\nbiodiversity from climate change has been based on ecological theory \r\nrather than on observations or practical experience. A recent review \r\n(Prober et al., 2019) concluded that out of 473 papers on adaptation, \r\nonly 16% presented new empirical evidence and very few assessed \r\nthe effectiveness of actual adaptation actions. It is also the case \r\nthat relatively little research is focused on local-scale management \r\ninterventions rather than on larger-scale strategies (Ledee et al., 2021), \r\nalthough there are some exceptions (Duffield et al., 2021)."


id: d7546201188320234b2fc9a57254e15e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35188
content:
"Many climate adaptation actions for biodiversity operate on the \r\nlandscape scale (von Holle et  al., 2020). The total area of habitat, \r\nhow fragmented it is, the size of habitat patches and the connectivity \r\nbetween them are inter-linked properties on this scale. A growing \r\nnumber of studies have investigated how these properties affect \r\nspecies ability to persist in situ and colonise new areas. Overall, "


id: 7d1c608edd136e6e5410785a546abd09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19198
content:
"Table 2.6 |  Evidence to support proposed climate change adaptation measures for biodiversity. The evidence highlights that adaptation for biodiversity conservation is a broad \r\nconcept, encompassing a wide range of actions. It includes targeted interventions to change the microclimate for particular species (e.g., by creating shade) to changing national \r\nconservation objectives to take account of changing distributions of species and communities. It includes targeted actions addressing both climate change and the protection and \r\nrestoration of ecosystems, with multiple additional benefits including reduced vulnerability to climate change. Most of the studies are not direct tests of the impacts of adaptation \r\nactions which, as noted above, is an important gap in the evidence. There is also a major limitation in that reported studies are predominantly from Europe, North America and \r\nAustralasia, with little research in other regions."


id: 9cc518ccb94ffb538e1613d9dc9f6329
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24817
content:
"wetland area and ecological integrity, especially during dry years \r\n(Cartwright et al., 2020). Measures to conserve drought refugia may \r\ninclude protecting springs and other groundwater-fed systems from \r\ngroundwater extraction, contamination, salinisation, surface-water \r\ndiversion, channelisation of streams, trampling by livestock, recreation \r\nactivities and invasive species and the effects of disturbances in the \r\nsurrounding landscape (Cartwright et al., 2020; Krawchuk et al., 2020). \r\nRestoration of degraded aquatic ecosystems can include removing \r\nflow-diversion infrastructure, excluding livestock, reducing other \r\nhuman impacts, geomorphic restructuring, removing invasive species \r\nand planting native riparian vegetation."


id: 396e1375d0025cb318803b2c24592989
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7317
content:
"In fire-prone areas, fire suppression and management are a key element \r\nof protecting refugia (Section 2.6.5.8 below). In ecosystems in which \r\na natural fire regime has been suppressed, restoration practices such \r\nas prescribed fires, thinning trees and allowing some wildfire where it \r\nbenefits the ecosystem can be introduced to reduce increasing risks \r\nfrom severe wildfires (Meigs et al., 2020)."


id: 301fdaa869fd758d9fc83561e9af9925
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5728
content:
"Managed translocation, that is, moving species from areas where the \r\nclimate is becoming unsuitable to places where their persistence under \r\nclimate change is more likely, has been discussed as an adaptation \r\noption for many years. So far, there have been very few examples of \r\nthis and it is likely to be a last resort in most cases, as it usually requires \r\na large investment of resources, outcomes are uncertain and there may \r\nbe adverse impacts on the receiving sites. Nevertheless, there are cases \r\nwhere it may be a be a viable option (Stralberg et al., 2019). This is \r\ndiscussed in more detail as a case study in Section 2.6.5.1."


id: 77897e9a775b5cf23c3c4f6f1eaf5cb2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18233
content:
"Refugia often refer to locally cool places in a landscape, such as \r\nshaded slopes or high elevations, but they can also include places \r\nwhere the supply of water may continue during dry periods (Morelli \r\net al., 2016). Monitoring can reveal which streams, wetlands, springs \r\nand other aquatic resources retain suitable discharges, water quality, "


id: 7367bce3046df4f27846ed260f24d4a2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17558
content:
"A study published in 2020 found that, out of 162 intended nationally \r\ndetermined contributions (covering 189  countries) submitted to the \r\nUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), \r\nas commitments to action under the Paris Agreement, 109 indicated \r\n'ecosystem-orientated visions' for adaptation, but only 23 used the \r\nterm 'ecosystem-based adaptation' (Seddon et al., 2020b)."


id: f9b5dfd3cad3335cfd1b35f2b3989afa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41295
content:
"Table 2.7 |  Examples of key EbA measures with assessments of confidence. Note only adaptation-related services are shown; many measures also provide a range of other benefits \r\nto people. All also provide benefits for biodiversity."


id: bd8c3a017aa2068db66c35de8d074eaf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30608
content:
"Protecting and restoring natural river systems and natural vegetation \r\ncover within catchments as well as integrating agro-ecological \r\ntechniques into agricultural systems can also help to maintain \r\nand manage water supplies for human use, under climate change, \r\nincluding during periods of drought, by storing water in catchments \r\nand improving water quality (Taffarello et al., 2018; Agol et al., 2021; \r\nKhaniya et  al., 2021). Lara et  al. (2021) showed that replacing a \r\nnon-native Eucalyptus plantation in Chile with native forest caused \r\nbase flow to increase by 28-87% during the restoration period \r\ncompared to pre-treatment, and found that it remained during periods \r\nwith low summer precipitation."


id: 4f75cd0448583c968f15fd91ae06f36b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11263
content:
"Whilst it is essential to develop place-specific EbA measures with the \r\nfull engagement of local communities, it is worth noting that new \r\nopportunities may emerge that would not have been possible in the \r\npast. As the climate changes, novel ecosystems may emerge (with no \r\npresent day analogue) which have the potential to provide different \r\nadaptation benefits, and societies may be more willing to adopt \r\ntransformative approaches (Colloff et al., 2017; Lavorel et al., 2020)."


id: 4cd22bdaec3d55387003e2985835a960
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10784
content:
"Increasingly, it is essential to integrate adaptation and the protection \r\nof biodiversity with land-based initiatives to mitigate climate change; \r\nthis is discussed in more detail in Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in \r\nthis chapter. The new IUCN standard (IUCN, 2020) offers a basis for \r\nassessing whether actions are true NbS and take into account the \r\nwider factors necessary for success."


id: 64286058d3924e1d255e3c3a5bb8740e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14906
content:
"Wildfire is an increasing risk for people as well as to ecosystems in many \r\nparts of the world. As discussed in Section 2.4.4.2, this is the result not \r\njust of climate change but also past management practices, including \r\nfire suppression. Better fire management including reinstating more \r\nnatural fire regimes can reduce risks."


id: 6ac8cbd422ce85f070c9755c20afba4c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:47
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16067
content:
"EbA is usually a place-specific approach and a number of studies have \r\ndocumented how attempts to implement it without an understanding \r\nof local circumstances and the full engagement of local communities \r\nhave been unsuccessful (Nalau et al., 2018). Since AR5, a number of \r\nstudies have considered the factors that are important for environment \r\nadaptation programmes and projects (UNFCCC, 2015; Nalau et  al., \r\n2018; Duncan et al., 2020; EPA Network and ENCA, 2020; Townsend \r\net al., 2020). Considering these sources, others described above and \r\nthe case studies presented in Section 2.6.5, a number of requirements \r\nfor effective implementation of EbA can be identified, including the \r\nfollowing:"


