# document

id: 3de3b628f83c4c9071cd28e4685b7fd9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Global extinction is when a species is extirpated from all areas. At 2degC \r\nglobal warming, 11.6% of African species (mean 11.6%, 95% CI 6.8-\r\n18.2%) assessed are at risk of global extinction, placing Africa second \r\nonly to South America in the magnitude of projected biodiversity losses \r\n(Urban, 2015). At >2degC, 20% of north African mammals may lose all "


id: 677e53c711c0aa556fad2d9fbbc6d1e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"suitable climates (Soultan et  al., 2019), and over half of the dwarf \r\nsucculents in South African Karoo may lose >90% of their suitable \r\nhabitat (Young et al., 2016). Among the thousands of species at risk, \r\nmany are species of ecological, cultural and economic importance such \r\nas African wild dogs (Woodroffe et al., 2017) and Arabica coffee (Moat \r\net al., 2019)."


id: 8e1444592d71d5c3fed0665ff87445e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
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content:
"warming (very high confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). At \r\naround 2.5degC global warming, an important reef-building coral \r\n(Diploastrea heliopora) in the central Red Sea is projected to stop \r\ngrowing altogether (Cantin et al., 2010). By 2.5degC, suitable habitat \r\nof >50% of species are projected to decline for coastal lobster \r\nin east and north Africa, with large declines for the commercially \r\nimportant lobster species Jasus lalandii in southern Africa (Boavida\u0002Portugal et  al., 2018). More generally, tropical regions, especially \r\nexclusive economic zones in west Africa, are projected to lose large \r\nnumbers of marine species and may experience sudden declines with \r\nextratropical regions having potential net increases as species track \r\nshifting temperatures poleward (Garcia Molinos et al., 2016; Trisos \r\net al., 2020)."


id: 9978449436359fee971ee462a9679620
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24228
content:
"African coastal and marine ecosystems are highly vulnerable to \r\nclimate change (high confidence). At 1.5degC of global warming, \r\nmangroves will be exposed to sedimentation and sea level rise, while \r\nseagrass ecosystems will be most affected by heat extremes (high \r\nconfidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) and turbidity (Wong et al., \r\n2014). These risks will be amplified at 2degC and 3degC (virtually certain) \r\n(Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018). Over 90% of east African coral \r\nreefs are projected to be destroyed by bleaching at 2degC of global "


id: d04dcc3d535cd50e3fd49eb1df741b01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34006
content:
"The loss of African biodiversity \r\nunder future climate change \r\nis projected to be widespread and increasing \r\nsubstantially with every 0.5degC above the \r\ncurrent (2001-2020) level of global warming"


id: ce985528f2cca766dec3ff9fa97be9ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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vector_id: 33686
content:
"Figure 9.19 |  The loss of African biodiversity under future climate change is projected to be widespread and increasing substantially with every 0.5deg above \r\nthe current (2001-2020) level of global warming (high confidence)."


id: 3c112da6231e9cb956c80bb281cc5c23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 7758
content:
"(a) Projected biodiversity loss, quantified as percentage change in species abundance, range size or area of suitable habitat increases with increasing global warming levels \r\n(relative to 1850-1900). Above 1.5degC global warming, half of all assessed species are projected to lose >30% of their population, range size or area of suitable habitat, with losses \r\nincreasing to >40% for >2degC. The 2001-2020 level of global warming is around 1degC higher than 1850-1900 (IPCC, 2021). Boxplots show the median (horizontal line), 50% \r\nquantiles (box), and points are studies of individual species or of multiple species (symbol size indicates the number of species in a study)."


id: 7eb105a54da63b5af9cc59c6f5d0bcc3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"(b-c) The mean projected local extinction of vertebrates, plants and insects within 100 km grid cells increases in severity and extent under increased global warming (relative \r\nto 1850-1900). Local extinction >10% is widespread by 1.5degC. Pixel colour shows the projected percentage of species undergoing local extinction and the agreement between \r\nmultiple biodiversity models."


id: e3ce25d6282bb4f38d97ecb7332fd90c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Direct human dependence on provisioning ecosystem services in \r\nAfrica is high (Egoh et al., 2012; IPBES, 2018). For example, natural \r\nforests provided 21% of rural household income across 11 African \r\ncountries (Angelsen et al., 2014) and wild-harvested foods (including \r\nfisheries) provide important nutrition to millions of Africans, including \r\nthrough important micronutrients and increased dietary diversity \r\n(Sections 9.8.2.3; 9.8.5; Powell et al., 2013; Baudron et al., 2019a)."


id: 37026aff62b3a47ad91268215f5c1ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Climate change has affected ecosystem services in Africa by reducing \r\nfish stocks, crop and livestock productivity, and water provisioning due \r\nto heat and drought (see Sections  9.8.2.1; 9.8.2.2; 9.8.2.4; 9.8.5.1). \r\nWoody encroachment is decreasing cattle production and water \r\nsupply (Smit and Prins, 2015; Stafford et  al., 2017), but can also \r\nprovide forage for goat production, as well as resins, fuelwood and \r\ncharcoal (Reed et al., 2015; Stafford et al., 2017; Charis et al., 2019). \r\nLocal communities perceive climate change to have decreased crop \r\nand livestock productivity, reduced wild food availability and reduced \r\nforest resources across Africa (see Sections  9.8.2.1; 9.8.2.2; 9.8.2.4; \r\n9.8.2.3; Onyekuru and Marchant, 2014)."


id: 2a1c15bd0d34f594cbcd7b583d43577a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Nature-based tourism is important for African economies and jobs. \r\nTourism contributed 8.5% of Africa's 2018 gross domestic product \r\n(GDP) (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019a) with wildlife tourism \r\ncontributing a third of tourism revenue (USD 70.6 billion), supporting \r\n8.8 million jobs (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019b)."


id: 437c500e8d761ef13e9263e631334ab1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Invasive species threaten African ecosystems and livelihoods (Ranasinghe \r\net  al., 2021). For instance, economic impacts were estimated at \r\nUSD 1 billion per year for smallholder maize farmers in east Africa (Pratt "


id: 99d5d3e1784f0f2363572f9c2e349413
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Future climate change is projected to further negatively affect nature\u0002based tourism. Decreased snow and forest cover may reduce visits to "


id: 5488216992d99503d0b9b6e134d66c3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Figure 9.20 |  Over a third (36%) of all adaptation actions identified in the NDCs of 52 African countries as of early 2020 were ecosystem-based adaptations \r\n(EbA). Of these actions +-83% fall within the agriculture, land use/forestry, environment and water sectors. The EbA actions identified from the NDCs span 12 primary sectors and \r\n29 sub-sectors."


id: 5446bce118f3053d361af1dfafb96aee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"African protected areas store around 1.5% of global land ecosystem \r\ncarbon stocks and support biodiversity (Gray et al., 2016; Melillo et al., \r\n2016; Sala et al., 2018). They also support livelihoods and economies, \r\nsuch as through nature-based tourism and improved fisheries \r\n(Brockington and Wilkie, 2015; Mavah et al., 2018; Ban et al., 2019)."


id: ba907bcccc8665e05ab188175c49d5a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem \r\nservices to assist people to adapt to climate change (Swanepoel and \r\nSauka, 2019). Africa's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) \r\nshow 36% of adaptation actions identified by 52  countries are \r\nconsidered to be EbA (Figure 9.20)."


id: 36d0505d83116f7ec4a72c8adfd16b9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Climate change and land use change will interact to influence the \r\neffectiveness of African protected areas (high confidence). Species \r\nrepresentation in the existing African protected area network is \r\nprojected to decrease due to species range shifts for mammals, bats, \r\nbirds and amphibians (Hole et  al., 2009; Baker et  al., 2015; Payne "


id: 6b5f81634eaa00e400187192bf8a282
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Table 9.6 |  The beneficial outcomes of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) actions and assessed confidence in these outcomes. Assessment is provided for EbA options in the \r\nfour most prevalent EbA sectors identified in the Nationally Determined Contributions of 52 African countries (Figure 9.20). See Chapter 2.6.3 and 3.6.2 of this report for further \r\nassessment of EbA approaches in terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems."


id: 6a086d64f5e9e1b355d9c5e783f861be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"also accounted for (Table  9.6; Baig et  al., 2016; Emerton, 2017; \r\nChausson et  al., 2020). This is particularly relevant in Africa where \r\nclimate vulnerabilities are strongly linked to natural resource-based \r\nlivelihood practices and existing grey infrastructure levels are low in \r\nmany regions (Dube et al., 2016; Reid et al., 2019). However, financial \r\nconstraints limit EbA project implementation (Mumba et  al., 2016; \r\nSwanepoel and Sauka, 2019)."


id: 938851b4073bd9d26b4207af0986c336
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"through involving community members in decision making, increasing \r\nthe capacity of these communities to respond to climate change (Reid, \r\n2014)."


id: 87d9be704d0df0dd12e31dbc7bbad815
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"EbA can also increase ecological resilience. Re-introduction of fire and \r\nlarge mammals can restore ecosystem services, enhance adaptive \r\ncapacity and benefit people by combatting woody encroachment, \r\nrestoring grazing and increasing streamflow (Asner et al., 2016; Stafford \r\net al., 2017; Cromsigt et al., 2018). Herbivores can also reduce fuel loads \r\nin areas facing increased fire risk (Hempson et al., 2017)."


id: 4137b82700e86af74e6a853bcd8adcc3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Evidence for EbA in Africa is largely case study based and often anecdotal \r\n(Reid et  al., 2018). There is high agreement that costs, challenges and \r\nnegative outcomes of EbA interventions are still poorly understood (Reid, \r\n2016; Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2019), despite limited evidence for the efficacy \r\nof context-specific applications at different scales (Doswald et al., 2014)."


id: 58278783846afab6a783c1d610b2b4e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Protected areas can be 'stepping stones' that facilitate climate-induced \r\nspecies range shifts (Roberts et  al., 2020), preserve medicinal plant \r\ndiversity despite climate change (Kaky and Gilbert, 2017) and provide \r\nlivelihood diversification opportunities (Table 9.6). Protecting 30% of \r\nsub-Saharan Africa's land area could reduce the proportion of species \r\nat risk of extinction by around 60% in both low and high warming \r\nscenarios (Hannah et al., 2020). The role of protected areas in EbA can be \r\nstrengthened by: (a) increasing coverage of diverse environments and \r\nhigh carbon storage ecosystems, (b) restoring habitat, (c) maintaining \r\nintact habitat, (d) participatory, equitable conservation and adaptation \r\nstrategies; (e) cooperating across borders and (f) adequate monitoring \r\n(Gillson et al., 2013; Rannow et al., 2014; Midgley and Bond, 2015; Pecl \r\net al., 2017; Dinerstein et al., 2019; Roberts et al., 2020)."


id: 4aa5ee698016b28de3d96d7eb6bece93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Improved ecosystem care and restoration are cost-effective for \r\ncarbon sequestration while providing multiple environmental, social \r\nand economic co-benefits (Griscom et al., 2017; Shukla et al., 2019). \r\nProtecting and restoring natural forests and wetlands reduces flood \r\nrisk across multiple African countries (Bradshaw et al., 2007). In Kenya, \r\nenclosures for rangeland regeneration diversified income sources, \r\nwhich could increase the adaptive capacity of local people (Mureithi \r\net  al., 2016; Wairore et  al., 2016). Sustainable agroforestry in semi\u0002arid regions provides income sources from fuelwood, fruit and timber \r\nand reduces exposure to drought, floods and erosion (Quandt et al., \r\n2017). Forest protection in Zimbabwe maintains honey production \r\nduring droughts, providing food supply options if crops fail (Lunga and \r\nMusarurwa, 2016). Community-based natural resource management \r\nin pastoral communities improved institutional governance outcomes "


id: bc15c704664b4389a2ac6def67ba27d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"EbA can mitigate flooding and increase the resilience of freshwater \r\necosystems (Table 9.6). Adaptation in African freshwater ecosystems is \r\nheavily influenced by non-climate anthropogenic factors, including land "


id: 4c9c8c0c9a1dd2eecf369428bfbbb7f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Due to widespread deforestation and forest degradation (Malhi et al., 2014), future scenarios to limit global warming include large-scale \r\nreforestation and afforestation (Griscom et al., 2017; Bastin et al., 2019). Africa has been targeted through the AFR100 (https://afr100.\r\norg) to plant ~1 million km2\r\n of trees by 2030 (Bond et al 2019). Maintaining existing indigenous forest and indigenous forest restoration \r\nis a win-win, maximising benefits to biodiversity, adaptation and mitigation (Griscom et al., 2017; Watson et al., 2018; Lewis et al., 2019) \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 5e985f2f5fd2f71c7a86acd89a81c4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Exotic tree species are often selected for planting (e.g., Pinus spp. or Eucalyptus spp.), but in parts of Africa, they have become invasive \r\n(Zengeya, 2017; Witt et al., 2018), increasing fire hazards and decreasing biodiversity and water resources (Nunez et al., 2021) (high \r\nconfidence). Negative impacts of afforestation on ecosystems are not restricted to plantations of exotic species; they extend to \r\ninappropriate planting of native forest species (Slingsby et al., 2020)."


id: 301c4575d4afe37fe6003ae13fc4a018
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"use change, water abstraction and diversion, damming and overfishing \r\n(Dodds et al., 2013; Kimirei et al., 2020; UNESCO and UN-Water, 2020). \r\nWetlands and riparian areas support biodiversity, act as natural filtration \r\nsystems and serve as buffers to changes in the hydrological cycle, thereby \r\nincreasing the resilience of freshwater ecosystems and the people that \r\nrely on them (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014; Musinguzi et al., 2015; Lowe et al., \r\n2019). However, national adaptation programmes of action, NAPs and \r\nnational communications rarely consider the ecological stability of "


id: a3839c22a17065501664141e574f5efc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 25976
content:
"ecosystems safeguarding the very water resources they seek to preserve \r\n(Kolding et  al., 2016). Some countries have mandated the protection \r\nof riparian zones, but implementation is low (Musinguzi et  al., 2015; \r\nMuchuru and Nhamo, 2018). Protecting terrestrial areas surrounding Lake \r\nTanganyika benefited fish diversity (Britton et al., 2017). Afforestation \r\nreduces water availability but forest restoration and removing invasive \r\nplant species can increase water flows in regions facing water insecurity \r\nfrom climate change (Chausson et  al., 2020; Le Maitre et  al., 2020). "


id: 7c5385722fa454ae6a99657ea721d098
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Regular, long-term monitoring of African freshwaters would improve \r\nunderstanding of responses to climate change. General principles for this \r\ntype of monitoring were developed for Lake Tanganyika (Plisnier et al., \r\n2018) and could be applied to develop harmonised, regional monitoring \r\nof African lakes, rivers and wetlands (Tamatamah and Mwedzi, 2020)"


id: 49d42dc19a983eaee097eb4da4a2bec2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"increased frequency of heavy rainfall events (see Section 9.5). In west \r\nAfrica, declines in river flows have been attributed to declining rainfall \r\nand increasing temperature, drought frequency and water demand \r\n(Biao, 2017; Thompson et al., 2017; Descroix et al., 2018). In central \r\nAfrica, the Congo river demonstrates inter-decadal shifts but no long\u0002term trend (Mahe et al., 2013; Alsdorf et al., 2016). However, recently \r\nobserved falling water levels in its upper and middle reaches are \r\nattributed to climate change (von Lossow, 2017)."


id: aa8ab52e05ac19198d66b1ca69e93b56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
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vector_id: 27225
content:
"Marine and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrass and \r\ncoral reefs provide storm protection and food security for coastal \r\ncommunities (high confidence) (IPCC, 2019d). Restoring reef systems \r\nreduced wave height in Madagascar (Narayan et al., 2016), but there is \r\nlimited evidence for the efficacy of coral reef restoration at large scales \r\nwith increased warming (Chapter 3 Section 3.6.3). Populations at risk \r\nfrom storm surge and/or sea level rise coincide with areas of high \r\ncoastal EbA potential from Mozambique to Somalia, and coastlines \r\nof the Gulf of Guinea, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone (Jones \r\net al., 2020). Understanding hotspots of EbA potential is particularly \r\nimportant for west Africa with some of the highest levels of human \r\ndependence on marine ecosystems at high risk from climate change \r\nand large populations vulnerable to sea level rise (Sections  9.9.3.1; \r\n9.8.5.2; Selig et al., 2018; Trisos et al., 2020)."


id: 1025214b83a752beedb476657425986b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"A review of river flow and lake level changes in 82 basins in eastern and \r\nsouthern Africa regions for 1970-2010 showed mixed trends: 51% had \r\ndecreasing trends ranging from 10-49% and 11% increasing trends \r\nranging from 7-60% (Schafer et al., 2015). However, in southern Africa \r\nas a whole, river flows have mostly decreased (high confidence) (Dallas \r\nand Rivers-Moore, 2014). In east Africa, large rivers such as the Tana \r\nshow increasing flow (1941-2016) related to increased rainfall in the \r\nhighlands, with little influence of flow regulation by a series of dams \r\n(Langat et al., 2017). The Nile river basin has been experiencing a mainly \r\nincreasing rainfall trend upstream and decreasing trend downstream \r\n(Onyutha et al., 2016). The observed changes are driven by a complex \r\ncoupling of changes in climate, land use and water demand."


id: 6e3ff679e5ea27d65f64f7838e9aa6ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Marine protected areas (MPAs) can yield multiple adaptation benefits, \r\nsuch as buffering species from extinction and increasing fish stocks, as \r\nwell as storing large amounts of carbon (Edgar et al., 2014; Roberts \r\net  al., 2017; Lovelock and Duarte, 2019). However, this potential of \r\nMPAs will reach limits with increased warming (Roberts et al., 2017). \r\nFor example, MPAs cannot prevent coral bleaching at scale and mass \r\ndie-offs are well-described from MPAs following climate shocks (Bates \r\net al., 2019; Bruno et al., 2019). However, prioritising MPA coverage of \r\nclimate refugia, such as the Northern Mozambique Channel, may offer \r\nsome increased resilience (McClanahan et al., 2014)."


id: 48e36a7b95c9abfdab505af1d099cbd9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Much of Africa experiences very high hydrological variability in all \r\ncomponents of the water cycle, with important implications for people \r\nand ecosystems. Most of the continent's water is stored in groundwater \r\n(660,000 km3\r\n), which is 20 times more than the water stored in the \r\nlakes and 100 times more than the annual renewable water resources \r\n(MacDonald et  al., 2012). The accessible volume of groundwater via \r\nwells and springs is smaller than these estimates (Xu et  al., 2019). \r\nAfrica has 63 transboundary river basins (UNEP, 2010), 72 mapped \r\ntransboundary aquifers (Nijsten et  al., 2018) and 33 transboundary \r\nlakes (ILEC and UNEP, 2016), reflecting a highly water-connected and \r\ninterdependent socio-ecological system across countries, also extending \r\nto the coastal areas of the continent (see Chapter 4 Section 4.1)."


id: ef4d069cce695d4f150e68397087503b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"The mixed signal in river flow trends (increase/decrease/no change) \r\nacross Africa mirrors the results seen globally for runoff and streamflow \r\n(see Chapter 4 Section 4.2.3). Hydrological extremes are, however, of \r\nincreasing concern. There has been an increase in drought frequency, \r\nseverity and spatial extent in recent decades. From 1900-2013, Africa \r\nsuffered the largest number of drought events globally and registered "


id: 8c2e81e540b1b32f714fe6c3062473d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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vector_id: 21838
content:
"Many African cities will face increasing water scarcity under climate change (Grasham et al., 2019). The Cape Town and Dodoma cases \r\nillustrate challenges for both surface and groundwater supply and what adaptation responses have been employed."


id: efe01263d532d97ca1554b87b2d60a33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"The Cape Town drought illustrates how a highly diverse African city and its citizens responded to protracted and unanticipated water \r\nscarcity. Human-caused climate change made the reduced rainfall that caused the drought three times more likely (95% confidence \r\ninterval 1.5-6) (Otto et al., 2018; Pascale et al., 2020; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021). After three consecutive years of low precipitation, \r\nCape Town braced for a 'Day Zero' where large portions of the city would lose water supply (Cole et al., 2021a). The risk of Day Zero \r\nwas anticipated to cascade to affect risks to health, economic output and security (Simpson et al., 2021b). The case study highlights \r\nthe importance of communication, budgetary flexibility, robust financial buffers and insurance mechanisms, disaster planning, \r\nintergovernmental cooperation, nature-based solutions, infrastructure transformations and equitable access for climate adaptation in \r\nAfrican cities facing water scarcity."


id: bf8497ae3d271c67687d248284492819
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"The drought led the municipality to consider a broader diversity of water supply options, including groundwater (CoCT, 2019), developing \r\ncity-scale, slow-onset disaster planning (Cole et al., 2021a) and building an enhanced 'relationship with water' (CoCT, 2019; Madonsela \r\net al., 2019). This shift in approach is displayed in the recognition of nature-based solutions as a priority in water resilience-building \r\nefforts (Rodina, 2019) and is signalled in Cape Town's Water Strategy which aims to become a 'water sensitive city' that makes 'optimal \r\nuse of stormwater and urban waterways for flood control, aquifer recharge, water re-use and recreation' (CoCT, 2019)."


id: 70b97a9722c0e0f2d9fa1b5b46e0a041
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17091
content:
"The drought required cooperation between multiple spheres of government, and the management of a broad range of stakeholders and \r\npolitical entities (Nhamo and Agyepong Adelaide, 2019; Cole et al., 2021a). The case highlights how a lack of coordination between \r\nessential organs of state and political entities can reduce response efficacy (Rodina, 2019). Despite significant investments in water \r\nsecurity by public and private entities, one-quarter of Cape Town's population remains in persistent conditions of water stress, emphasising \r\nthe challenge and importance of inclusive solutions that address the persistent social and economic stressors which affect vulnerability to \r\nwater scarcity (Enqvist and Ziervogel, 2019)."


id: f759f04b1ec72290200bc7d3f9fef533
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Since 1954, the Makutapora wellfield in semi-arid, central Tanzania has supplied safe water to the city of Dodoma. Substantial rises \r\nin wellfield pumping and population growth have increased freshwater demand in Dodoma and dependence upon the Makutapora \r\nwellfield, currently the sole perennial source of piped water to the city. Yet, there is high uncertainty of groundwater recharge rates \r\n(Nkotagu, 1996; Taylor et al., 2013) which rely on intense seasonal rainfall associated with the ENSO and the IOD modes of climate \r\nvariability (e.g., 2 to 7 years) to contribute disproportionately to recharge (Taylor et al., 2013; Kolusu et al., 2019)."


id: 327307375d578b0ad26401e6f2a12928
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"As freshwater demand in Tanzania's rapidly growing capital is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades, questions \r\nremain as to whether the capacity of the Makutapora wellfield can meet some or all of this demand. Nature-based solutions to improve \r\nthe resilience of wellfield abstraction to increased pumpage and climate change include managed aquifer recharge (MAR). The sharing \r\nof general lessons learned from other cities in dryland Africa employing MAR, such as Windhoek in Namibia (Murray et al., 2018), could \r\nprove invaluable."


id: 2400cfd9127073bf29290552a90867c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"the second largest number of people affected after Asia (Masih et al., \r\n2014). The likelihood of recent severe climate conditions such as the \r\nmulti-year Cape Town drought has increased due to human-caused \r\nclimate change (Otto et al., 2018; Pascale et al., 2020; see Box 9.4), \r\nand regional and urban floods (Yuan et al., 2018; Tiitmamer, 2020) and \r\ndroughts (Funk et al., 2018b; Siderius et al., 2018; Uhe et al., 2018) are \r\nexpected to increase."


id: 9941009de54c634cf8a237f5f9329b17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"In north Africa, in the upper White Nile basin, Olaka et  al. (2019) \r\nproject a 25% and 5-10% (RCP4.5) increase in the intensification of \r\nfuture annual rainfall in the eastern and western parts of the Lake \r\nVictoria Basin, respectively, with corresponding variability in future \r\nriver discharge ranging from 5% to 26%. In the upper Blue Nile basin, \r\nmodels also indicate up to 15% increase in runoffs in wet season and \r\nup to -24% decrease in dry season during 2021-2040 (RCP8.5) (Ayele \r\net al., 2016; Siam and Eltahir, 2017; Meresa and Gatachew, 2018). The \r\nincrease of precipitation in the wet season indicates a higher possibility \r\nof flash floods, while decreased runoffs in dry season further intensify \r\nexisting shortage of irrigation water demand (Ayele et al., 2016; Siam "


id: 58b1ec30969cdcd12707af3607409989
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"By 2050, up to 921 million additional people in sub-Saharan Africa \r\ncould be exposed to climate change-related water stress, while up \r\nto 459 million could experience reduced exposure (Dickerson et al., \r\n2021). This large variance in numbers and direction of change is \r\nrelated to uncertainties in climate models and non-climate factors \r\nlike population growth and water withdrawals (Dickerson et  al., \r\n2021). The baseline for most of the projected risks presented here \r\nis 1971-2000."


id: 3cf19cfc2e1828474841c077b943f277
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"and Eltahir, 2017; Meresa and Gatachew, 2018). The annual flow and \r\nrevenues from hydropower production and irrigated agriculture of the \r\nBlue Nile River at Khartoum are projected to increase under maximum \r\nbut are expected to decrease under minimum and median projected \r\nchanges in streamflow for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively \r\n(Tariku et al., 2021). The Middle Draa valley in Morocco is expected \r\nto experience more severe droughts and the estimation of the water \r\nbalance suggests a lack of supply in the future (Karmaoui et al., 2016)."


id: a880dd4e94798de0df5bfe09ebc17779
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content:
"projections of strong early summer drying trends remain uncertain \r\n(Munday and Washington, 2019)."


id: e45fa0c036dee9407e0f250bf04d5f24
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"In east Africa, Liwenga et  al. (2015) project warmer and wetter \r\nconditions in the Great Ruaha River region and with increasing \r\nseasonal variation and extremes towards the end of the century. A \r\nsimilar observation is made for the River Pangani, with mean river \r\nflow being about 10% higher in the 2050s relative to the 1980-1999 \r\nperiod, associated with a 16-18% increase in rainfall in its upper \r\ncatchment (Kishiwa et al., 2018). However, at more local scales, the \r\nprojections cover a range of slight declines to significant increases \r\nin mean annual rainfall amounts (Gulacha and Mulungu, 2017). In \r\nthe Tana River basin in Kenya, water yield is projected to increase \r\nprogressively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 relative to the baseline period \r\n1983-2011 but is characterised by distinct spatial heterogeneity \r\n(Muthuwatta et al., 2018)."


id: d27f8ee35f3d863dec5c354ce42925fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Lake surface temperatures across Africa are expected to rise in tandem \r\nwith increasing global warming. Lake heatwaves, periods of extreme \r\nwarm lake surface water temperature, are projected to become hotter \r\nand longer (Figure 9.21), with heatwaves more than 300 days per year \r\nin many lakes for global warming of 4.2degC (Woolway et  al., 2021). \r\nLake warming is expected to have adverse consequences for aquatic \r\nbiodiversity, habitats, water quality and disruption of current lake physical \r\nprocesses and circulation patterns (Kraemer et al., 2021)."


id: cbbeb2b40af42acad5c3c16112a1fafe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"In southern Africa, reductions in rainfall over the Limpopo and Zambezi \r\nriver basins under 1.5degC and 2degC global warming could have adverse \r\nimpacts on hydropower generation, irrigation, tourism, agriculture and \r\necosystems (Figure Box  9.5.1) (Maure et  al., 2018), although model "


id: 9302d1b18509d201aafbac7a7c625682
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Stringer et al., 2021). Appropriate ecosystem-based adaptations that are \r\napplicable at scale should be identified and strongly embedded in these \r\napproaches to deliver multiple benefits while maintaining the integrity of \r\necosystems and biodiversity (UN Environment, 2019; see Sections 9.6.4; \r\n9.8.5; Box 4.6). Furthermore, adaptation options are often influenced or \r\nconstrained by institutions, regulation, availability, distribution, price and \r\ntechnologies (McCarl et al., 2016). Thus, institutional capacity to manage \r\ncomplex water supply systems under rapidly increasing demand and \r\nclimate change stress is critical in achieving water security for African \r\ncities, particularly as cities become more dependent on alternative and \r\ndistant water sources (Padowski et al., 2016)."


id: b322908a992eb427b7061eff386a36d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Climate change is projected to reduce water availability and increase the \r\nextent of water scarcity (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016), particularly in \r\nsouthern and north Africa, while other regions will be more affected by \r\nincreased hydrological variability over temporally short to interannual \r\ntime scales (see Section 9.6.2). African countries are considered to be \r\nparticularly at risk due to their underlying vulnerabilities (IPCC, 2014b; \r\nUNESCO and UN-Water, 2020), yet the continents' water resources \r\nare still inadequately quantified and modelled (Muller Schmied et al., \r\n2016; Reinecke et  al., 2019), constraining sustainable management \r\npractices (Cuthbert et al., 2019; Hughes, 2019)."


id: 66a64a3eec0b0c4a1e99355382e49ae1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Hydrological fluctuations are associated with drought, flood and \r\ncyclone events which have had multi-sector impacts across Africa \r\n(Siderius et  al., 2021; see Chapter  4 Sections  4.3; 4.5), including: \r\nreduced crop production (D'Odorico et  al., 2018), migration and \r\ndisplacement (Siam and Eltahir, 2017; IDMC, 2018), food insecurity \r\nand extensive livestock deaths (Nhamo et al., 2018), electricity outages \r\n(Gannon et  al., 2018), increased incidence of cholera (Olago et  al., \r\n2007; Sorensen et al., 2015; Houemenou et al., 2020) and increased \r\ngroundwater abstraction amplifying the risk of saline intrusion from \r\nsea level rise (Hamed et al., 2018; Ouhamdouch et al., 2019)."


id: 438c9acd46917d969c51c8c4fd4d99fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"An integrated systems and risk-based approach to the design and \r\nmanagement of water resources at scale is generally accepted as a \r\npractical and viable way of underpinning the resilience of water systems \r\nto climate change and human pressures (Duffy, 2012; Garcia et al., 2014). \r\nSuch approaches confer multiple benefits to nature and society at scale \r\nand enhance efficiency gains through technology and management \r\nimprovements, but their full implementation has not yet been realised \r\n(Weinzierl and Schilling, 2013; McDonald et al., 2014; UN Environment, \r\n2019). Drylands are particularly singled out as ignored areas that require \r\nintegrated water resource management approaches (Section  9.3.1; "


id: bdfe7e916615b378635461f79da7a0d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"achieve a water sensitive city ideal, reaping benefits such as improved \r\nliveability, reduced flooding impacts, safe water and overall lower \r\nnet energy requirements and avoid making the mistakes developed \r\ncountries' cities have made (Fisher-Jeffes et al., 2017) (Brodnik et al., \r\n2018). However, the challenge of large proportions of the population \r\nlacking access to even basic water supply and sanitation infrastructure \r\n(Armitage et  al., 2014) must be simultaneously and effectively \r\naddressed, particularly in light of other major exacerbating factors, like \r\nthe COVID-19 pandemic (Section 9.11.5)."


id: a9eed2d0262c6647f14d8ee2c4cd2925
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"Many studies in Africa use the river basin as a unit of analysis at scale \r\nand adopt sophisticated model-based techniques to assess climate \r\nchange impacts on hydrology under different climate and development \r\nscenarios, thereby presenting trade-offs between competing uses such \r\nas hydropower generation, irrigation and ecosystem requirements \r\n(Section  9.12.1; Yang and Wi, 2018; Ahmed, 2020). However, longer "


id: c0eb6cd59ba36bb646095c3df7a07758
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"In Africa, the climate risks that the water, energy and food sectors will face in the future are heavily influenced by the infrastructure \r\ndecisions that governments make in the near term. The AU's Programme for Infrastructure Development (PIDA), along with other national \r\nenergy plans (jointly referred to as PIDA+), aim to increase hydropower capacity nearly six-fold, irrigation capacity by over 60% and \r\nhydropower storage capacity by over 80% in major African river basins (Cervigni et al., 2015). The vast majority of hydropower additions \r\nwould occur in the Congo, Niger, Nile and Zambezi river basins, and the majority of the irrigation capacity additions would occur in the \r\nNiger, Nile and Zambezi River basins (Figure Box 9.5.1; Huber-Lee et al., 2015)."


id: 856c68ee35a05c7462c2da26dc83e890
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"Hydropower plants clustered within the same areas, are likely to \r\nexperience similar rainfall and run-off patterns, increasing the risk \r\nthat neighbouring states will experience concurrent drought-induced \r\nhydropower shortages."


id: 546d752e28c751d9a3caf828cb5af482
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"When historical annual river flows are weakly or negatively \r\ncorrelated, power trade between basins will be more effective in \r\nmanaging the risk of shortages than power trade between those \r\nexperiencing similar patterns. "


id: aaff5a62d768cd828c70f4c26aa3a956
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"(a) The map shows the location and size of existing (blue) and planned (orange) hydropower plants in African governments' infrastructure expansion plans, 2015-2050. \r\n(b) Matrix shows historical correlations in annual river flows between some of the major river basins indicating risk of hydropower shortages where correlations are higher. \r\n(c, e) Existing and planned hydropower and irrigation are indicated in charts. Dark blue shows forecasted revenues from 2015-2050 of existing hydropower and irrigation in \r\nmajor African river basins in a scenario without further climate change (i.e., based on historical data). Orange in charts (c, e) shows the expected increase in hydropower and \r\nirrigation revenues as new hydropower and irrigation infrastructure is added based on planned infrastructure development (PIDA+) in a scenario without climate change."


id: 7f3ee8b452f56ccc0e84cdedfe3f3b71
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"(multi-decadal) hydrological datasets and model improvements \r\nare required (Taye et  al., 2015), and models should incorporate the \r\nquantification of the wider benefits, risks and political opportunities \r\narising from reservoir development to better inform decision makers \r\nto achieve a higher level of (transboundary) cooperation (Digna et al., \r\n2016; Nijsten et  al., 2018). Collaboration between scientists and \r\npolicymakers to address the complexity of decision making under \r\nuncertainty (Steynor et al., 2016) (Pienaar and Hughes, 2017), coupled \r\nwith community involvement in participatory scenario development and \r\nparticipatory GIS to aid in collaborative planning that is context specific \r\n(Muhati et al., 2018; Alvarez Larrain and McCall, 2019) are powerful \r\ntools for more beneficial adaptive and resilience-building actions."


id: fa14ff84827374d1e90bc8390e1be117
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Gender is important in building resilience and adaptation pathways to \r\nglobal environmental change (Ravera et al., 2016). It is well-established \r\nthat women, in most societies, have accumulated considerable knowledge "


id: f624789f7f846e3acea22f4a8a50745b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"for pastoralist communities in east and southern Africa (Sonwa et al., \r\n2017; Basupi et al., 2019). Rural communities often have poor transport \r\nnetworks, limited access to markets or information and fewer livelihood \r\nalternatives, and are less able to be informed of risks or be assisted in the \r\nevent of extreme climate events (Sonwa et al., 2017; Basupi et al., 2019)."


id: cd72353e998ab130f4489cb30fef3429
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"change will interact with broader components of African food systems, \r\nand strategies for making these systems more resilient, particularly \r\nin a context of rapid population growth and urbanisation across the \r\ncontinent (Adenle et al., 2017; Schmitt Olabisi et al., 2018)."


id: 5f0866908b3b4475e13dbd2104b69a82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Extreme climate events have been key drivers in rising acute food \r\ninsecurity and malnutrition of millions of people requiring humanitarian \r\nassistance in Africa (high confidence). Between 2015 and 2019, an \r\nestimated 45.1  million people in the Horn of Africa and 62  million \r\npeople in eastern and southern Africa required humanitarian assistance \r\ndue to climate-related food emergencies. Children and pregnant women \r\nexperience disproportionately greater adverse health and nutrition \r\nimpacts (very high confidence) (Gebremeskel Haile et  al., 2019; see \r\nChapter 7 Section 7.2.4)."


id: 63cb2b0dd0eb83fa32b64ece411c32ae
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"Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed and subsistence across Africa. \r\nThe dominant farming system is mixed cereal-livestock (Thornton and \r\nHerrero, 2015; Nematchoua et al., 2019), with pastoral systems in east \r\nAfrica, and commercial livestock and crop systems also representing a \r\nsignificant proportion of the food system in southern Africa (Thornton \r\nand Herrero, 2015). Many African regions are vulnerable to food \r\ninsecurity, facing dwindling food production, food access, stocks and \r\nincome due to low adaptive capacity (Evariste et al., 2018; Fuller et al., \r\n2018; Bang et al., 2019; Gebre and Rahut, 2021)."


id: bfdac1ba1fd8b6e8effafe5f182e17a1
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"Future climate warming is projected to have a substantial adverse \r\nimpact on food security in Africa and is anticipated to coincide with low \r\nadaptive capacity as climate change intensifies other anthropogenic \r\nstressors, as 85% of Africa's poor live in rural areas and mostly depend \r\non agriculture for their livelihoods (Adams, 2018; Mahmood et  al., \r\n2019). This highlights the need to prioritise innovative measures for \r\nreducing vulnerabilities in African food systems (Fuller et  al., 2018; \r\nMahmood et al., 2019)."


id: 505ed46ecb8a3bf07f3d19789de21cf9
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"Across regions with food systems highly vulnerable to climate change, \r\nfemale farmers, cocoa farmers, pastoralists, plantain farmers, coastal \r\nzone communities, rural households and forest communities in central \r\nAfrica indicate higher vulnerability (Chia et al., 2016; Schut et al., 2016; \r\nNematchoua et  al., 2019). Their vulnerability is multi-dimensional \r\nand affected by low adaptive capacity, location, livelihood system, \r\nsocioeconomic status, gender, age and ethnicity (Perez et  al., 2015; \r\nWeston et al., 2015; Gebre and Rahut, 2021; see also Box 9.1)."


id: 3ce001af1161751bff653130b2a39af8
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"Climate change impacts could increase the global number of people \r\nat risk of hunger in 2050 by 8 million under a scenario of sustainable \r\ndevelopment (SSP1) and 80  million under a scenario of reduced \r\ninternational cooperation and low environmental protection (SSP3), \r\nwith populations concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and \r\ncentral America (see Chapter  5 Sections  5.2.2; 5.4.2; 5.4.3). Global \r\nclimate impacts on food availability are expected to lead to higher food \r\nprices, increasing the risk of hunger for people in African countries, \r\nand slowing progress towards eradicating child undernutrition and \r\nmalnutrition in all its forms (see Chapter 7 Section 7.4)."


id: 405b9ed00356f28d0e494b5d77e615f9
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"Across Africa, including west Africa, adverse climate conditions for \r\nagricultural and pastoral livelihoods have contributed to rural to urban \r\nmigration patterns and migration among African regions (see Box 9.8; \r\nBaudoin et  al., 2014; Abbas, 2017; Gemenne and Blocher, 2017b). \r\nRural to urban migration may increase vulnerability of migrants \r\nthrough exposure to additional risks, including food insecurity (Amadi \r\nand Ogonor, 2015; Abbas, 2017). In general, west African countries \r\nare characterised by the poor adaptive capacity of rural households \r\n(Douxchamps et al., 2015; Dumenu and Obeng, 2016)."


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content:
"In north Africa, livelihoods and economies are strongly dependent \r\non agriculture. Pressure on water demand due to climate change \r\nand variability is threatening income, development processes and \r\nfood security in the region (high confidence) (Mohmmed et al., 2018; \r\nKhedr, 2019). Increased temperatures and droughts have enhanced the \r\nvulnerability of the irrigation sector (Verner et al., 2018; Ilseven et al., \r\n2019), and the combined effect of these hazards negatively affects \r\ncrop and animal production (Mohmmed et  al., 2018; Verner et  al., \r\n2018). For example, dairy farms in Tunisia are experiencing warmer \r\ntemperatures above the thermoneutral zone of cows for more than \r\n5  months each year, reducing production efficiency and resulting in \r\nsignificant economic losses (Amamou et al., 2018)."


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content:
"Climate change is already negatively impacting crop production and \r\nslowing productivity growth in Africa (high confidence) (Iizumi et al., \r\n2018; Ray et al., 2019; Sultan et al., 2019; Ortiz-Bobea et al., 2021). \r\nClimate change has reduced total agricultural productivity growth in \r\nAfrica by 34% since 1961, more than in any other region (Ortiz-Bobea \r\net al., 2021). Maize yields have decreased 5.8% and wheat yields 2.3%, \r\non average, in sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change in the period \r\n1974-2008 (Ray et al., 2019). Overall, climate change has decreased \r\ntotal food calories across all crops in sub-Saharan Africa by 1.4% on \r\naverage compared to a no climate change counterfactual since 1970, \r\nwith up to 10% reductions in Ghana and Zimbabwe (Ray et al., 2019)."


id: bbf0fe7650890de5aa10c7cfedc0338f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30298
content:
"Non-climatic stressors aggravate food insecurity in many parts of \r\nthe continent, including lack of access to production inputs and land, \r\nlack of education and limited income sources, with adverse climate \r\nimpacts on agriculture reducing education attainment for children \r\n(Section 9.11.1.2; Evariste et al., 2018; Fuller et al., 2018). Geographic \r\nand social isolation is another type of social vulnerability, especially "


id: d53b127cd8e605636e16d44d595989b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34837
content:
"2016a; Elum et  al., 2017; Kichamu et  al., 2017; Alvar-Beltran et  al., \r\n2020). Farmers attribute these perceived changes as a major driver \r\nof yield losses (Ayanlade and Jegede, 2016; see Section 9.4.5). Over \r\nhalf of surveyed farmers in west Africa perceive increases in crop pests \r\nand diseases as due to climate change as the range and seasonality of \r\nmany pests and diseases change under warming (Callo-Concha, 2018). \r\nPests and diseases contribute between 10-35% yield losses for wheat, \r\nrice, maize, potato and soybean in sub-Saharan Africa (Savary et al., \r\n2019). Recent locust outbreaks in 2019 in east Africa have been linked \r\nto climate conditions caused in part by ocean warming (Wang et al., \r\n2020b; see Box 5.8)."


id: 2008dee6e458e7b174f2c6abdae4f6b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2851
content:
"phosphorus are limiting crop growth. Additional Free-Air Carbon dioxide \r\nEnrichment (FACE) experiments are needed in the tropics, particularly \r\non the African continent, to better understand the impacts of increased \r\nCO2 concentrations on the productivity of crops and cultivars grown in \r\nAfrica under additional temperature impacts and water and nutrient \r\nlimitations (Ainsworth and Long, 2021). Warming and elevated CO2\r\nmay also change the nutritional content of some crops. By 2050 under \r\nRCP8.5 (2.4degC global warming), overall wheat yields and grain protein \r\ncontent may decrease by 10% and 15%, respectively, in north and east \r\nAfrica, and by over 15% in southern Africa (Asseng et al., 2019). See \r\nChapter 5 for more details on CO2 impacts and uncertainties."


id: cae6d89a915c35c00eb9387e1492cd34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33036
content:
"Future climate change may increase insect pest-driven losses in Africa \r\nfor maize, rice and wheat. Compared to 1950-2000, losses may \r\nincrease by up to 50% at 2degC of global warming (Deutsch et al., 2018). \r\nHowever, many challenges remain in modelling pest and disease under \r\nclimate change with additional research needed expanding the range \r\nof crops and diseases studied (Newbery et al., 2016)."


id: c2eeee60850ee104b4c79280de0eaa43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31571
content:
"Few studies have attributed changes in yields of cash crops and other \r\nregionally important food crops in Africa to human-caused climate \r\nchange, but recent research suggests yields of cash crops in Africa \r\nhave already been impacted by climate change, in both a negative \r\nand positive manner (Falco et al., 2012; Traore et al., 2013; Ray et al., \r\n2019). For example, between the period 1974-2008, sugarcane yields \r\ndecreased on average by 3.9% and 5.1% in sub-Saharan Africa and \r\nnorth Africa, respectively, due to climate change, while sorghum yields \r\nincreased 0.7%, and cassava yield increased 1.7% in sub-Saharan \r\nAfrica and 18% in north Africa (Ray et al., 2019)."


id: c22e9369baf6c1d579f859791ee4fe2f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31454
content:
"Agriculture in Africa is especially vulnerable to future climate change \r\nin part because 90-95% of African food production is rainfed (Adams, \r\n2018). Maize, rice, wheat and soybean yields in tropical regions \r\n(20degS-20degN) are projected to decrease approximately 5% per degree \r\nCelsius of global warming in a multi-model ensemble (Rosenzweig \r\net  al., 2014; Franke et  al., 2020). Dryland agricultural areas are \r\nespecially sensitive to changes in rainfall. For example, without \r\nadaptation, substantial yield declines are projected for staple crops \r\nin north Africa. A recent meta-analysis of 56  studies indicates that, \r\ncompared to 1995-2005, economic welfare in the agriculture sector \r\nin north Africa is projected to decline 5% for 2degC global warming and \r\n20% for 3degC global warming, and in sub-Saharan Africa by 5% (2degC) \r\nand 10% (3degC) (Moore et  al., 2017a), both more pessimistic than \r\nprevious economic estimates."


id: 7391716869cb7c3f25910c2e451008da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17588
content:
"There are also limited studies assessing projected climate change impacts \r\non important cash crops and food crops other than maize, rice and wheat \r\n(Jarvis et al., 2012; Schroth et al., 2016; Awoye et al., 2017). These studies \r\noften represent changes at specific sites in a country or assess changes \r\nin the yield and/or suitability for cultivating a specific crop across a larger \r\ngeographic area. Climate change is projected to have overall positive \r\nimpacts on sugarcane and Bambara nuts in southern Africa, oil palm in \r\nNigeria and chickpea in Ethiopia (low confidence) (Figure 9.23)."


id: c29f7fc8c8f3a0e4cde9e616bcf1d322
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31527
content:
"A synthesis of projected staple crop impacts across 35  studies for \r\nnearly 1040 locations and cases shows, on average, decreases in \r\ncrop yields with increasing global warming across staple crops in \r\nAfrica, including when accounting for CO2 increases and adaptation \r\nmeasures. For example, for maize in west Africa, compared to 2005 \r\nyield levels, median projected yields decrease 9% at 1.5degC global \r\nwarming and 41% at 4degC, without adaptation (Figure 9.22). However, \r\nuncertainties in projected impacts across crops and regions are driven \r\nby uncertainties in crop responses to increasing CO2 and adaptation \r\nresponse, especially for maize in east Africa and wheat in north Africa \r\nand east Africa (Figure 9.22; Hasegawa et al., 2021)."


id: c0c2f6913b977aa03ab040e992550b46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31211
content:
"There is also growing evidence that climate change is likely beginning \r\nto outpace adaptation in agricultural systems in parts of Africa (Rippke \r\net al., 2016). For example, despite the use of adjusted sowing dates and \r\nexisting heat-tolerant varieties, Sudan's domestic production share of \r\nwheat may decrease from 16.0% to 4.5-12.2% by 2050 under RCP8.5 \r\n(2.4degC global warming) (Iizumi et al., 2021)."


id: 628fb8ad9342bacc921b463fd836a9ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14629
content:
"For all other crops, there is at least one study that finds low to highly \r\nnegative impacts for one or several warming levels (Figure  9.23). \r\nMixed results on the direction of change often occur when several \r\ncontrasting sites with varying baseline climates are studied, and when \r\na study considers the full range of climate scenarios. For example, \r\nthere are mixed results on the direction of change for impacts of 1.5degC "


id: 8c302ff868d1824c06d98818db6bf0a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21839
content:
"Elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere might mitigate some or \r\nall climate-driven losses (Swann et al., 2016; Durand et al., 2018), but \r\nthere is considerable uncertainty around the CO2 response (Deryng et al., \r\n2016; Toreti et al., 2020), especially when nutrients such as nitrogen and "


id: c6eba820417fbedd1454a9ac65c9bec3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32308
content:
"global warming on cassava, cotton, cocoa and millet in west Africa \r\n(low confidence) (Figure 9.23). In general, there is limited evidence in \r\nthe direction of change, due to single studies being available for most \r\ncrop-country combinations (Knox et al., 2010; Chemura et al., 2013; \r\nAsaminew et  al., 2017; Bouregaa, 2019). Occasionally, two studies \r\nagree on the direction and magnitude of change, for example, for \r\npotatoes in east Africa, yields are projected to decrease by 11-17% \r\nwith 3degC of warming (Fleisher et al., 2010; Tatsumi et al., 2011)."


id: be49fcc0297c23781ccae5d5bd3874e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30746
content:
"Figure 9.23 |  Projected risks at increasing global warming levels for regionally important cash and food crops in Africa. Insufficient data indicates there were \r\nlimited to no published studies that have quantified projected climate change impacts or adaptation options for specific crops under different warming levels (see Table SM9.6). \r\nGlobal warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850-1900."


id: 311fa7c2e0130403cbfedc008e538530
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5895
content:
"et al., 2013; Shumsky et al., 2014; Wunder et al., 2014; Baudron et al., \r\n2019b). In Zimbabwe, during lean times, consumption of wild fruits \r\nincreases, as does their sale to generate income for additional food \r\nexpenses in poor, rural households (Mithofer and Waibel, 2004). In Mali, \r\nTanzania and Zambia, household surveys indicate that forest products \r\nincluding wild foods can play an important role in reducing household \r\nvulnerability to climate shocks by providing alternative sources of food "


id: f92a5b73571a5c9d7a22aaf292cd0538
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41200
content:
"Wild-harvested foods (e.g., fruits, vegetables and insects) provide \r\ndietary diversification and for many people in Africa, wild-harvested \r\nfood plants may provide a livelihood and/or nutritional safety net \r\nwhen other sources of food fail, such as during drought (Sunderland "


id: 8883d73ef72d507278867b70244bceb4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21182
content:
"and income during droughts and floods (Robledo et al., 2012). In the \r\nparklands of west Africa, wild trees are a significant source of wild \r\nfoods and are thus a place where one might expect wild plant foods \r\nto make an important contribution to diets and nutrition (Boedecker \r\net al., 2014; Lessmeister et al., 2015). Non-timber forest products are \r\nconsumed by an estimated 43% of all households in Burkina Faso (FAO, \r\n2019), and wild vegetables accounted for about 50% of total vegetable \r\nconsumption in southeastern Burkina Faso (Mertz et al., 2001)."


id: 4d2ef1166ff44725ffa018f43fe32b4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10860
content:
"Fodder quality, critical for animal health and weight gain, is at risk \r\nfrom climate change as increases in temperature, elevated CO2 and \r\nwater stress have been shown to reduce dry matter digestibility and \r\nnitrogen content for C3 grasses (Augustine et  al., 2018), tropical C4\r\ngrasses (Habermann et al., 2019) and fodder crops such as Lucerne/\r\nAlfalfa (Polley et al., 2013; Thivierge et al., 2016)."


id: 5edacaa0dc5d25231ebdb022ca9ef4fb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13980
content:
"Livestock systems in Africa are already being affected by changes in climate \r\nthrough increased precipitation variability leading to decreasing fodder \r\navailability (Sloat et al., 2018; Stanimirova et al., 2019). More than twice \r\nas many countries in Africa have experienced increases in precipitation \r\nvariability in the last century than decreases (Sloat et al., 2018). Fodder \r\navailability is also being impacted by woody plant encroachment--\r\nthe increase in shrub and tree cover--which has increased by 10% \r\non subsistence grazing lands and 20% on economically important \r\ngrazing lands in south Africa in the last 60 years (Stevens et al., 2016), \r\nand is driven in part by climatic factors (see Section 9.6.1.1). Increased \r\ntemperature and precipitation have contributed to the expanding range, \r\nespecially in east and southern Africa, of several ixodid tick species which \r\ncarry economically important livestock diseases (Nyangiwe et al., 2018)."


id: 239a0f455f8deff8515f947822d75365
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3462
content:
"Heat stress may already be the largest factor impacting livestock \r\nproduction in many regions in Africa (El-Tarabany et al., 2017; Pragna \r\net al., 2018), as the combination of high temperatures and high relative \r\nhumidity can be dangerous for livestock and has already decreased \r\ndairy production in Tunisia (Amamou et al., 2018). Climate change is \r\nprojected to increase heat stress for all types of livestock, especially in \r\nthe tropics (Figure 9.24; Lallo et al., 2018). More studies quantifying \r\nthe impact of heat stress on other types of livestock production loss \r\nare needed in Africa (Rahimi et al., 2021)."


id: 66cb391c81cbc2b4d5a343d601a47a0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15351
content:
"Pastoralists in Africa perceive the climate as already changing and \r\nreport more erratic and reduced rainfall, prolonged and more frequent \r\ndroughts and a rise in temperature (Sanogo et al., 2017; Kimaro et al., \r\n2018). They also report reduced milk production, increased deaths and \r\ndisease outbreaks in their herds due to malnutrition and starvation \r\nresulting from the shortages in forage and water (Kimaro et al., 2018). \r\nAdditional research is required to attribute precipitation variability to \r\nhuman-induced climate change (see Section 9.5), and to evaluate the \r\nrelative contributions of climate change and management to disease \r\nvector extent."


id: 39a9b422e418017eedd8afa329953deb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7358
content:
"Climate change will impact livestock disease prevalence primarily \r\nthrough changes in vector dynamics or range (Abdela and Jilo, \r\n2016; Semenza and Suk, 2018). African Rift Valley Fever (RVF) and \r\ntrypanosomiasis are positively associated with extreme climate events \r\n(droughts and ENSO) (Bett et al., 2017) and are projected to expand in \r\nrange under climate change (Kimaro et al., 2017; Mweya et al., 2017). \r\nMore quantitative estimates of projected risk from diseases are needed."


id: 151eda28904f8bb96e17f8a4020b4af2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 930
content:
"(c, d) Projected increase in the number of days per year with severe heat stress for a global warming level of 1.5degC and 3.75degC. Severe heat stress for cattle is projected to become \r\nmuch more extensive in the future in Africa at increased global warming levels. Strong mitigation would substantially limit the spatial extent and the duration of cattle heat stress \r\nacross Africa. Heat stress is estimated using the Temperature Humidity Index with a value greater than 79 considered the onset of severe heat stress (Livestock Weather Safety Index) \r\n(Lallo et al., 2018). Global warming of 1.5degC used scenario SSP1-2.6 and global warming of 3.75degC used SSP5-8.5, both for 2070-2099 (12 climate models from O'Neill et al., \r\n2016; Tebaldi et al., 2021). Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850-1900."


id: 2fc9005909948026506342aaad15c372
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5665
content:
"regions of west Africa, small-scale irrigation, including the digging \r\nof ditches, holes and depressions to collect rainwater (Makondo and \r\nThomas, 2018), is widely adopted and promoted to support national \r\nfood security (Dowd-Uribe et al., 2018)."


id: 5a11912c4f1bae23c4c648b0ba184e37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13093
content:
"Agricultural and livelihood diversification are strategies used by \r\nAfrican households to cope with climate change, enabling them to \r\nspread risks and adjust to shifting climate conditions (Thierfelder et al., \r\n2017; Thornton et al., 2018). This includes adjusting cropping choices, \r\nplanting times, or size, type and location of planted areas (Altieri et al., \r\n2015; Nyagumbo et  al., 2017; Dayamba et  al., 2018). In southern \r\nAfrica, changes in planting dates provide farmers with greater yield \r\nstability in uncertain climate conditions (Nyagumbo et  al., 2017). \r\nIn Ghana, farmers are changing planting schedules and using early \r\nmaturing varieties to cope with late-onset and early cessation of the \r\nrainy season (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2014; Bawakyillenuo et al., 2016)."


id: f1e62d25c4b69c32bfed4c842baa73bf
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39946
content:
"African farmers are also diversifying their income sources to offset \r\nreduced yields or crop losses by shifting labour resources to off-farm work, \r\nor by migrating seasonally or longer term (Kangalawe et al., 2017; Hove \r\nand Gweme, 2018). Off-farm activities provide financial resources that \r\nrural households need to cope with extreme climate variability (Hamed \r\net al., 2018; Rouabhi et al., 2019). However, in some cases, these off-farm \r\nactivities can be maladaptive at larger scales, such as when households \r\nturn to charcoal production, which contributes to deforestation (Egeru, \r\n2016). Whether off-farm activities constitute maladaptation depends on \r\nwhether resources are available to upgrade skills or support investments \r\nthat make a new business more lucrative. Without such resources, this \r\noption may lead to impoverishment (see Box 5.8)."


id: dd7cb2b29833f9f770d0b7b0e721fee0
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The use of drought-tolerant crop varieties is another adaptation \r\navailable to African farmers (Hove and Gweme, 2018; Choko et  al., \r\n2019). Adoption, however, is hindered by lack of information and \r\ntraining, availability or affordability of seed, inadequate labelling and \r\npackaging size for seed supplies and financial constraints (Fisher et al., \r\n2015). Moreover, drought-tolerant varieties do not address changing \r\ntemperature regimes (Guan et al., 2017)."


id: bbd170b70ee383b3bf4026a4995490bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30276
content:
"Smallholder farmers' responses tend to address short-term shocks \r\nor stresses by deploying coping responses (e.g., selling labour, \r\nreducing consumption and temporary migration), rather than longer\u0002term sustainable adaptations (Ziervogel and Parnell, 2014; Jiri et al., \r\n2017). This is partly due to institutional barriers (e.g., markets, credit, \r\ninfrastructure and information) and resource requirements that are \r\nunaffordable to smallholder farmers (Pauline et al., 2017). There is a \r\nneed for policies that strengthen natural, financial, human and social \r\ncapitals, the latter being key to household and community resilience, \r\nespecially where government services may be limited (Mutabazi et al., \r\n2015; Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017). There is evidence that collective \r\naction, local organisations and climate information are associated with \r\nhigher food security, and that institutional interventions are needed to \r\nensure scaling up of adaptations (Thornton et al., 2018)."


id: 5c5afaa60dd38ecf5eaf6f83f851fc54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13502
content:
"Crop diversification enhances crop productivity and resilience and \r\nreduces vulnerability in smallholder farming systems (McCord et al., \r\n2015; Mulwa and Visser, 2020). In Tanzania, diversified crop portfolios \r\nare associated with greater food security and dietary quality (Brussow \r\net al., 2017). In Kenya, levels of crop diversity are higher in villages \r\naffected by frequent droughts, which are the main cause of crop failure \r\n(Bozzola and Smale, 2020). Crop diversification also helps control \r\npest outbreaks, which may become more frequent and severe under \r\nincreased climate variability and extreme events (Schroth and Ruf, \r\n2014). High farming diversity enables households to better meet food \r\nneeds, but only up to a certain level of diversity (Waha et al., 2018), \r\nand the viability of and benefits from mixed farming are highly context \r\ndependent (Thornton and Herrero, 2015; Weindl et al., 2015)."


id: 52fb803d859a904e2b136dc1796ec8e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11857
content:
"A range of options is considered potentially effective in reducing future \r\nclimate change risk, including plant breeding, crop diversification \r\nalongside livestock, mixed planting, intercrops, crop rotation and \r\nintegrated crop-livestock systems (see Chapter 5 Sections 5.4.4; 5.14.1; \r\nThornton and Herrero, 2014; Cunningham et al., 2015; Himanen et al., \r\n2016; Farrell et al., 2018; Snowdon et al., 2021). However, adaptation \r\nlimits for crops in Africa are increasingly reached for global warming \r\nabove 2degC (high confidence), and in tropical Africa may already be \r\nreached at current levels of global warming (low confidence)."


id: cc3359679b212511f3c98dce28dac447
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33249
content:
"Agroecological and conservation agriculture practices, such as \r\nintercropping, integration of legumes, mulching and incorporation of \r\ncrop residues, are associated with household food security and improved \r\nhealth status (Nyantakyi-Frimpong et al., 2017; Shikuku et al., 2017). \r\nThese practices can enhance the benefits of other adaptations, such as \r\nplanting drought- and heat-tolerant or improved varieties, although \r\neffects vary across soil types, geographical zones and social groups \r\n(Makate et al., 2019; Mutenje et al., 2019). Non-climatic variables, such \r\nas financial resources, access to information and technology, level of \r\neducation, land security and gender dynamics affect feasibility and \r\nadoption (Makate et al., 2019; Mutenje et al., 2019)."


id: 924aad88067d7058246e9f48490fdbbe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22960
content:
"Global warming beyond 2degC will place nearly all of sub-Saharan \r\nAfrica cropland substantially outside of its historical safe climate \r\nzone (Kummu et al., 2021) and may exponentially increase the cost of \r\nadaptation and residual damage for major crops (Iizumi et al., 2020). \r\nWithout accounting for CO2 increases, global-scale studies employing \r\nensembles of gridded crop models for 2degC of global warming find \r\nthat for adaptation using genetic cultivar change in most of Africa net \r\nlosses are projected, even with adaptation up to 2degC of global warming \r\nfor rice, maize, soybean and wheat (Minoli et  al., 2019; Zabel et  al., \r\n2021), although model uncertainty is still high (Muller et al., 2021). In \r\ncontrast, when accounting for CO2 increases, applying new genetics for \r\nrice under warming is projected to fully counteract all climate change\u0002induced losses in Africa up to 3.5degC of global warming, except in west \r\nAfrica (van Oort and Zwart, 2018)."


id: b1d29e04f6a79935c71b208bd9647ea0
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"To mitigate growing water stress, countries like Ethiopia, Rwanda, \r\nTanzania and Uganda are striving to improve irrigation efficiency \r\n(McCarl et al., 2015; Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2016; Herrero et al., \r\n2016). The feasibility and effectiveness of this adaptation depend \r\non biophysical and socioeconomic conditions (Amamou et  al., \r\n2018; Harmanny and Malek, 2019; Schilling et  al., 2020). Irrigation \r\nis unaffordable for many smallholder farmers and only covers a \r\nnegligible proportion of the total cultivated area. Nonetheless, in some "


id: 6d0037d60d2b8afa437d9c9c4d43def7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Marine and freshwater fisheries provide 19.3% of animal protein intake \r\n(Chan et al., 2019) and support the livelihoods of 12.3 million people \r\n(de Graaf and Garibaldi, 2015) across Africa. Estimates suggest that fish \r\nprovides approximately 200 million people in Africa with their main \r\nsource of animal protein and key micronutrients (Obiero et al., 2019). \r\nAlthough marine fisheries account for >50% of total capture fishery \r\nproduction (Obiero et al., 2019), 2.9 million tonnes of fish are harvested \r\nannually from inland water bodies constituting the highest per capita \r\ninland fishery production of any continent (2.56 kg per person per year) \r\n(Harrod et al., 2018a; Funge-Smith and Bennett, 2019)."


id: a6843667095b30e80210c4862aed4b49
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"In addition to adaptation in crop, soil and water management, the \r\ncombination of (a) Climate Information Services, (b) institutional \r\ncapacity building and (c) strategic financial investment can help \r\nAfrican food producers adapt to projected climate risks (Carter et al., \r\n2015; Surminski et  al., 2016; Scott et  al., 2017; Cinner et  al., 2018; \r\nDiouf et al., 2019; Hansen et al., 2019a). There is growing evidence \r\nof farmers' use of weather and climate information, especially at the \r\nshort- and medium-time horizon (Carr et al., 2016; Singh et al., 2018). \r\nDigital services can contribute to the sustainable intensification of food \r\nproduction globally (Duncombe, 2018; Klerkx et al., 2019). This points \r\nto the need for the scientific and development communities to better \r\nunderstand the conditions that enable widespread adoption in Africa."


id: 257294441f722eb4fffe6a6d1f4504f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Although climate information services have the potential to strengthen \r\nfarmers' resilience, barriers to accessibility, affordability and utilisation \r\nremain (Krell et  al., 2021). Often the information offered is not \r\nconsistent with what farmers need to know and how they access \r\nand process information (Meadow et  al., 2015; Singh et  al., 2018). \r\nProduction of salient and credible climate information is hindered \r\nby the limited availability of and access to weather and climate data \r\n(Coulibaly et  al., 2017; Hansen et  al., 2019a). The existing weather \r\ninfrastructure remains suboptimal to enable the development of \r\nreliable early warning systems (Africa Adaptation Initiative, 2018; Krell \r\net al., 2021). Of the 1017 land-based observational networks in the \r\nworld, only 10% are in Africa, and 54% of Africa's surface weather \r\nstations cannot capture data accurately (Africa Adaptation Initiative, \r\n2018; World Bank, 2020d)."


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"in this region (Okpara et al., 2017b). Small-scale and artisanal fisher \r\ncommunities are ill-equipped to adapt to climate impacts because \r\nthere are few financially accessible alternative livelihoods (Belhabib \r\net al., 2016; Ndhlovu and Saito, 2017)."


id: a247e3f75392baabe31cd415650a1efc
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"At 4.3degC global warming, maximum catch potential (MCP) from marine \r\nfisheries in African Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) would decrease by \r\n12-69% by the end of the 21st century relative to recent decades (1986-\r\n2005), whereas global warming of 1.6degC would limit the MCP decrease to \r\n3-41% (Cheung William et al., 2016; IPCC, 2019c). By mid-century under \r\n2degC global warming, MCP would decrease by 10 to >30% on the western \r\ncoast of South Africa, the Horn of Africa and west Africa, indicating these \r\nregions could be at risk to declines in MCP earlier in the century than \r\nother parts of Africa (Cheung et al., 2016). Declining fish harvests due to \r\nsea temperature rise could leave 1.2-70 (median 11.1) million people in \r\nAfrica vulnerable to deficiencies in iron, and up to 188 million to vitamin "


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"Figure 9.25 |  Climate change increases risks to the catch potential and nutrition from marine fisheries."


id: a04313471fdb25513e81497963bc6206
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content:
"(a) The percentage of animal source foods consumed that originate from a marine environment. Countries with higher dependence are indicated by darker shades of green (Golden \r\net al., 2016)."


id: 147aef3eec5e761d22a52e9b3c36933a
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"(b-c) Projected percentage change in maximum catch potential of marine fisheries compared to the recent past (1986-2005) under 1.6degC global warming and >4degC global \r\nwarming by end of 21st century (2081-2100) in countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) (Cheung William et al., 2016). Darker red indicates greater percentage reduction \r\n(negative values)."


id: 9f33ae8a67c6c7b27e423e69df06fe81
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"(d-e) Countries (in purple) that have overlap between high nutritional dependence on marine fisheries and high risk of reduction in maximum catch potential under the two global \r\nwarming scenarios. Global warming levels were calculated using a baseline for pre-industrial global mean temperature of 1850-1900."


id: 4d35c2e3b40d5cdeef6d0fcfaec5bca7
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"are predicted to affect the early life history stages of several marine \r\nfood species, including fish and crustaceans (Kifani et al., 2018). Climate \r\nwarming is projected to impact water temperature and horizontal and \r\nvertical mixing on the southern Benguela ecosystem, with marked \r\nnegative effects on the biomass of several important fishery resources by \r\n2050 amplified under 2.5degC compared to 1.7degC global warming (Ortega\u0002Cisneros et al., 2018)."


id: d290eb9d5f64ce022ce57a8a640a06e9
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"For inland fisheries, 55-68% of commercially harvested fish species will \r\nbe vulnerable to extinction under 2.5degC global warming by the end of \r\nthe 21st century (2071-2100) compared to 77-97% under 4.4degC global \r\nwarming (Figure 9.26). This will increase the number of countries that \r\nare at food security risk due to fishery species declines from 10 to 13 \r\n(Figure 9.26). Other recent analyses suggest that African countries with \r\nthe highest inland fisheries production have low- to mid-range projected \r\nclimate risk (2.4degC-2.6degC local temperature increase compared to "


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"(a) Countries' dependence on inland fisheries for nutrition; darker green shows higher dependence on inland fisheries."


id: 42e79a7d03ff932dcfa05b5fa7cb0402
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"(b-c) Projected numbers of freshwater fishery species vulnerable to climate change within freshwater ecoregions under >2degC global warming and >4degC global warming estimated \r\nby the end of the 21st century (2071 to 2100). Numbers of vulnerable fish species translate to an average of 55-68% vulnerable at >2degC and 77-97% vulnerable at >4degC global \r\nwarming. Darker reds indicate higher concentrations of vulnerable fish species."


id: 548488de25f88c958bf922d22597ea5f
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"(d-e) Countries (in purple) that have an overlap between high dependence on freshwater fish and high concentrations of fishery species that are vulnerable to climate change \r\nunder two warming scenarios. Countries' dependence on inland fisheries for nutrition was estimated by catch (total, tonnes) (FAO, 2018b; Fluet-Chouinard et al., 2018), per capita \r\ncatch (kg per person per year) (FAO, 2018b), percentage reliance on fish for micronutrients, and percentage consumption per household (Golden et al., 2016). Z-scores of each \r\nmetric were averaged for each country to create a composite index describing 'current dependence on freshwater fish' for each country with darker blue colours indicating higher \r\ndependence. Data on vulnerable fish species was from (Nyboer et al., 2019)."


id: 849fd143c90cd5c426df4ce15866e41d
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"For both marine and freshwater fisheries, climate-related extreme \r\nweather events and flooding may drive the loss of fishing days, cause \r\ndamage and loss to fishing gear, endanger the lives of fishers and \r\nblock transportation from damaged roads (Muringai et al., 2021). Fish \r\nprocessing via weather-dependent techniques such as sun drying may \r\nbe hampered, causing post-harvest losses (Akintola and Fakoya, 2017; \r\nChan et al., 2019)."


id: f10ba87c989da5e5f1bcf9adb3c406ba
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"2016). Much of the rapid rate of urbanisation has resulted from the \r\ngrowth of small towns and intermediary cities (African Development \r\nBank et al., 2016)."


id: 9349217a4f1889a36132bdcbbad8d192
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"Approximately 59% of sub-Saharan Africa's urban population resides \r\nin informal settlements (in some cities up to 80%), and the population \r\nin informal settlements is expected to increase (very high confidence) \r\n(Taylor and Peter, 2014; UN-Habitat, 2014; 2016; UNDP, 2019). These \r\nurbanisation trends are compounding increasing exposure to climate \r\nhazards, particularly floods and heatwaves (high confidence) (Dodman \r\net al., 2015)."


id: 7f1bf392a0bddcb36c009a0fb3d8119
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"Globally, the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation are \r\ntaking place in Africa's coastal zones (high confidence) (Merkens et al., \r\n2016). Coastal urban populations account for 25-29% of the total \r\npopulation in west, north and southern Africa (OECD/SWAC, 2020). \r\nAccounting for a continuing young population, stagnant economies \r\nand migration to regional growth centres, projections indicate that the \r\nlow-lying coastal zone population of Africa could increase to over 100 \r\nmillion people by 2030 and over 200 million people by 2060 relative to \r\n54 million in 2000 (Neumann et al., 2015; see Figure 9.28)."


id: db1ac38728769f2e61fbe53e169f6e1b
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"Climate-related displacement is widespread in Africa, with increased \r\nmigration to urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa linked to decreased \r\nrainfall in rural areas, increasing urbanisation and affecting household \r\nvulnerability (see Box 9.9). Much of this growth can occur in informal \r\nsettlements which are growing due to both climatic and non-climatic \r\ndrivers, and which often house temporary migrants, including internally \r\ndisplaced people. Such informal settlements are located in areas \r\nexposed to climate change and variability and are exposed to floods, \r\nlandslides, sea level rise and storm surges in low-lying coastal areas, \r\nor alongside rivers that frequently overflow, thereby exacerbating \r\nexisting vulnerabilities (Satterthwaite et al., 2020)."


id: 4cd85c830d15ea597656d0860063adc4
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"Sub-Saharan Africa's large infrastructure deficit (quantity, quality and \r\naccess) with respect to road transport, electricity, water supply and \r\nsanitation places the region at the lowest of all developing regions \r\n(AfDB, 2018a; Calderon et  al., 2018). Adequate infrastructure to \r\nsupport Africa's rapidly growing population is important to raise living \r\nstandards and productivity in informal settlements (AfDB, 2018b; \r\nUN Environment, 2019). Yet planned infrastructure developments, \r\nincluding those related to the AU's PIDA, along with other energy \r\nplans, and China's Belt and Road Initiative, may increase or decrease \r\nboth climate change mitigation and adaptation depending on whether \r\ninfrastructure planning integrates current and future climate change \r\nrisks (Cervigni et al., 2015; Addaney, 2020; see Box 9.5)."


id: 268913e781eacf7bbd6663204c5a6902
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"This section assesses climate impacts, risks and adaptation options for \r\nhuman settlements comprising human populations and infrastructure \r\nsuch as buildings, roads and energy across Africa."


id: a64576aa294a3640d361540f0b4be103
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"African human settlements are particularly exposed to floods (pluvial \r\nand fluvial), droughts and heat waves. Other climate hazards are \r\nsea level rise and storm surges in coastal areas, tropical cyclones \r\nand convective storms. This sub-section provides an assessment of \r\nobserved impacts and risks from climate hazards in different sub\u0002regions to underscore the relevance of climate-sensitive planning and "


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"Africa is the most rapidly urbanising region in the world, with an \r\nannual urban population growth rate of 3.6% for 2005-2015 (UN\u0002Habitat, 2016). About 57% of the population currently lives in rural \r\nareas, but the proportion of the population living in urban areas is \r\nprojected to exceed 60% by 2050 (UNDESA, 2019b) (UN-Habitat, "


id: e37455cca3cd2bc032eb2892e29b02cc
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"(f) total deaths from heat waves. Source: EMDAT and CRED (2020). Note: Although extreme weather damage databases under-report heatwaves (which is indicated in panel (f) by \r\nvery few deaths), the region has experienced a number of heatwaves and will be affected disproportionately by them in the future under climate change (Harrington and Otto, 2020)."


id: 5ec9d909dced5ee5ec27f6090688aa26
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"actions to advance social and economic development, and reduce the \r\nloss and damage of property, assets and critical infrastructure."


id: 9b4727e8bbad7c338b46ba031282024e
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"major hazard across Africa (Kundzewicz et al., 2014; Douglas, 2017) \r\nand is increasing (Zevenbergen et al., 2016; Elboshy et al., 2019). An \r\nincrease in extreme poverty and up to a 35% decrease in consumption \r\nhas been associated with exposure to flood shocks (Azzarri and \r\nSignorelli, 2020). Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region globally that did \r\nnot show decreasing rates of flood mortality since the 1990s (Tanoue \r\net  al., 2016). Economic opportunities, transportation of goods and \r\nservices, and mobility and access to essential services, including health \r\nand education, are greatly hindered by flooding (Gannon et al., 2018). \r\nSevere impacts from tropical cyclone landfalls have been recorded in \r\neast and southeastern Africa (Rapolaki and Reason, 2018; Cambaza "


id: 9fb204caf5a20b1cbb8cb24e5bfc5a6b
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"The spatial distribution of climate hazards and observed impacts in \r\nterms of total people affected (displaced persons and deaths) during \r\n2010-2020 is shown in Figure  9.27. From 2000-2019, floods and \r\ndroughts accounted for 80% and 16%, respectively, of the 337 million \r\naffected persons, and a further 32% and 46%, respectively, of 46,078 \r\ndeaths from natural disasters in Africa (CRED, 2019). Flooding is a "


id: c50a1eb88abb783bdc9a29106b043e0c
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"Table 9.7 |  Case studies of climate hazard impacts and risks to selected human settlements in Africa"


id: a8ccd20b32d37fc66cfcf329fb0779c3
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"et al., 2019; Chatiza, 2019; Hope, 2019). Cyclones Idai and Kenneth \r\nin early 2019 caused flooding of districts in Malawi, Mozambique and \r\nZimbabwe, with substantial loss and damage to infrastructure in the \r\nenergy, transport, water supply, communication services, housing, \r\nhealth and education sectors, particularly in Mozambique (Figure 9.27; \r\nsee also Cross-Chapter Box  DISASTER in Chapter 4; Warren, 2019; \r\nDube et al., 2021; Phiri et al., 2021)."


id: 6c0c5da7ce18825da9dd110870b30eaf
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content:
"Business disruptions from climate impacts have implications for \r\ndeepening poverty (Adelekan and Fregene, 2015). Small and medium \r\nenterprises (SMEs) employ 60-90% of workers in many African \r\ncountries and contribute 40% or more to the GDP in Ghana, Kenya, \r\nNigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe (Muriithi, 2017). The \r\nviability of businesses and economic well-being of large populations \r\nemployed in SMEs is severely affected by climate hazards as reported for \r\nlocal wind storms in Ibadan (Adelekan, 2012), El Nino-related flooding \r\n(Nairobi), drought-induced water supply disruption (Gaborone) and \r\npower outages (Lusaka) (Gannon et  al., 2018). High water demand \r\ndue to high rates of urbanisation and population growth, coupled with \r\ndrought, reduce groundwater levels in cities (e.g., Bouake, Harare, \r\nTripoli, Niamey) and increase saltwater intrusion into groundwater \r\nin coastal areas, reducing water availability and water security, "


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"From 2005-2020, flood-induced damage over Africa was estimated at \r\nover USD 4.4 billion, with eastern and western Africa being the most \r\naffected regions (EMDAT and CRED, 2020). Total damages in four west \r\nAfrican countries (Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal and Togo) in 2017 were \r\nestimated at USD 850 million for pluvial floods and USD 555 million \r\nfor fluvial floods (Croitoru et al., 2019). Unprecedented economic loss, \r\nin terms of goods and properties, estimated by the Nigerian insurance \r\nindustry at USD  200  million resulted from floods in Lagos in 2011 \r\n(Adelekan, 2016). In southern Africa, the highest costs were incurred "


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"particularly for poorer populations not connected to municipal water \r\nnetworks (Aswad et al., 2019; Claon et al., 2020)."


id: 5d927162d7d90a273325756c9c4963e1
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"people or 55% of global total) (Rentschler and Salhab, 2020). Poverty \r\nis a significant factor of flood-induced displacement in Africa, where \r\neven small flood exposure can lead to high numbers being displaced \r\n(Kakinuma et al., 2020). Africa's large population of urban poor and \r\nmarginalised groups and informal sector workers, further contribute \r\nto high vulnerability to extreme weather and climate change in many \r\nsettlements (high confidence) (Adelekan and Fregene, 2015; IPCC, \r\n2019a; UNDP, 2019)."


id: b19702b41a4169cb0a1af4647e9fa58f
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"Evidence of the impact of heat waves in urban Africa in the current \r\nclimate is sparse, due in part to low reporting and monitoring \r\n(Engelbrecht et al., 2015; Harrington and Otto, 2020). Knowledge is \r\nalso limited on the interaction of climate change, urban growth and \r\nthe urban heat island effect in Africa (Chapman et al., 2017). In north \r\nAfrica, the present-day number of high heat stress nights is around \r\n10 times larger in urban than rural areas (Fischer et al., 2012)."


id: 60096ad469aabe44c5706d9cceb461cf
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content:
"Other non-climatic stressors which exacerbate vulnerabilities, especially \r\nin urban areas, include poor socioeconomic development, weak \r\nmunicipal governance, poor resource and institutional capacities, \r\ntogether with multi-dimensional, location-specific inequalities (high \r\nconfidence) (Dodman et al., 2017; Satterthwaite, 2017)."


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"The highest transport infrastructure exposures are from floods (Koks \r\net al., 2019), with potentially severe consequences for food security \r\n(Fanzo et  al., 2018), communication and the economy of affected \r\nregions (high confidence) (Koks et al., 2019). Eight of the 20 countries \r\nwith the highest expected annual damages to road and rail assets, \r\nrelative to the country's GDP, are located in east, west and central \r\nAfrica (Koks et al., 2019). Transport impacts compound climate impacts, \r\nsuch as heat stress and air pollution linked to vehicle emissions in Dar \r\nes Salaam (Ndetto and Matzarakis, 2014)."


id: 64b5dd973959c514a30c40f6b72552e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The extent of urban areas in Africa exposed to climate hazards will \r\nincrease considerably and cities will be hotspots of climate risks, which \r\ncould amplify pre-existing stresses related to poverty, exclusion and \r\ngovernance (high confidence) (IPCC, 2018b)."


id: fcc3123f7a293c85bbde784481a3f2c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41833
content:
"African economies that rely primarily on hydropower for electricity \r\ngeneration are particularly sensitive to climate variability (Brooks, \r\n2019). This sensitivity was already felt during the 2015/16 El Nino, \r\nin which Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe all experienced \r\nwidespread and prolonged load shedding due to low rainfall. The \r\nimpact was felt throughout the economy and reflected in reduced GDP \r\ngrowth in Zambia (Conway et al., 2017)."


id: 5351f8134d5c90221c3f70e64f01521b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11932
content:
"Urban population exposure to tropical cyclone hazards in southeastern \r\nAfrica, in particular Mozambique, is projected to increase due to the \r\nintensification of cyclones and their extended duration associated \r\nwith warmer sea surface temperatures (Fitchett, 2018; Vidya et  al., \r\n2020). Urban damage assessment based on a 10-year flood protection \r\nlevel for Accra, Ghana, shows that without flood protection, there is \r\na 10% probability of a flood occurring annually which could cause \r\nUSD 98.5 million urban damage, affect GDP by USD 50.3 million and \r\naffect 34,000 people (Asumadu-Sarkodie et  al., 2015). Many urban "


id: 7431c9b08c7f1a23bc3d55483af3a177
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Figure 9.28 |  Tens to hundreds of millions of people in Africa are projected to be exposed to sea level rise, with a major risk driver being increased expo\r\ndue to population increase in low-lying areas."


id: f1fb59f70d3d567511fda8fc3819e1ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"(a) Population in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) projected to be exposed to mean sea level rise (SLR) for 2030 (+10 cm SLR) and 2060 (+21 cm SLR). Scenarios A, C have \r\nexclusive social, political and economic governance whereas scenarios B and D have inclusive social, political and economic governance.\r\n(b) African countries with the highest projected population numbers in the LECZ, and also the additional population projected to be exposed in these countries due to a 1-in-100 year \r\nstorm surge event. For panel b projections of population exposure used the high population growth socio-economic scenario (scenario C). Data sourced from Neumann et al. (2015)."


id: 63594dd874f392c362997930c2eeede9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"households and Africa's growing assets could therefore be exposed to \r\nincreased flooding (IPCC, 2018b)."


id: 7e12cad1b2fc740b8904fdacb44683e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Africa's low-lying coastal zone population is expected to grow more \r\nthan any other region from 2000 to 2060 (see Figure 9.28; Neumann \r\net al., 2015). Future rapid coastal development is expected to increase \r\nexisting high vulnerabilities to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal hazards, \r\nparticularly in east Africa (high confidence) (Figure 9.29; Hinkel et al., \r\n2012; Kulp and Strauss, 2019). By 2100, sea levels are projected to \r\nrise at least 40 cm above those in 2000 in a below 2degC scenario, and \r\npossibly up to 1 m by the end of the century under a 4degC warming \r\nscenario (Serdeczny et  al., 2017; see also Cross-Chapter Box  SLR in \r\nChapter 3)."


id: 8eac8b2af054e5594c6f5b8c5c263f21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Table 9.8 |  Regional relative sea level rise (SLR) for 2050 and 2100, and associated aggregated expected damage risks over the period 2020 to 2050 in 12 major African \r\ncoastal cities under four SLR scenarios. (a) Regional relative SLR by 2050 and 2100. For SLR, median and 95th percentiles are presented, in centimetres. (b) Probabilistic damage \r\nestimations by 2050 include expected average damages (EAD), damages at the 95th percentile (value at risk; VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES), which represents the average \r\ndamages of the 5% worst cases. Four relative sea level projections were considered under no adaptation: the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from the (IPCC, 2014a), and a high-end \r\nRCP8.5 scenario that incorporates expert opinion on additional ice sheet melting. Note that figures are provided in undiscounted millions of US dollars (2005) and have been \r\nrounded off to avoid a false sense of precision (Abadie et al., 2020; Abadie et al., 2021)."


id: 32fe0b6bb14b37c639d10b589852b7a8
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content:
"ranking, with aggregate expected damage of USD  36  billion and \r\nUSD 50 billion under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, and \r\nUSD 79.4 billion under a high-end scenario."


id: 74763599ba3dd0cca7b77ba78d61329d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17722
content:
"Sea level rise and associated episodic flooding are identified as key \r\ndrivers of projected net migration of 750,000 people out of the east \r\nAfrican coastal zone between 2020 and 2050 (IPCC, 2019a). These \r\ntrends, alongside the emergence of 'hotspots' of climate in- and \r\nout-migration (Box  9.8), will have major implications for climate\u0002sensitive sectors and the adequacy of human settlements, including \r\nurban infrastructure and social support systems. Actions which could \r\nhelp reduce the number of people being forced to move in distress, \r\ninclude adoption of inclusive and CRD policies, together with \r\ntargeted investments to manage the reality of climate migration; and \r\nmainstreaming climate migration in development planning (Box 9.8)."


id: b6168f498e8da3941e1a23964d94b509
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The African population exposed to compound climate extremes, \r\nsuch as coincident heat waves and droughts or drought followed \r\nimmediately by extreme rainfall, is projected to increase 47-fold \r\nby 2070-2099 compared to 1981-2010 for a scenario with high \r\npopulation growth and 4degC global warming (SSP3/RCP8.5) and only \r\n12-fold for low population growth and 1.6degC global warming (SSP1/\r\nRCP2.6), with west, central-east, northeastern and southeastern Africa \r\nespecially exposed (Weber et al., 2020). Coincident heat waves and \r\ndrought is the compound event to which the most people are projected \r\nto be exposed: ~1.9 billion person-events (a 14-fold increase) for SSP1/\r\nRCP2.6 and ~7.3  billion person-events (52-fold increase) for SSP3/\r\nRCP8.5 (Weber et al., 2020)."


id: 88938960e1cf0d5c9e5b1773a950289b
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climate change poses an increased risk to energy security for human \r\nsettlements in Africa (high confidence). With burgeoning urban \r\npopulations and growing economies, sub-Saharan Africa's electricity \r\nneeds are growing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects \r\ntotal generation capacity in Africa must grow 2.5 times from 244 GW \r\nin 2018 to 614 GW by 2040 (IEA, 2019). African nations plan to add \r\nsignificant generation capacity from natural gas, hydropower, wind \r\nand solar power. Each of these technologies is associated to a varying \r\ndegree with climate risk."


id: 53a640c6dd75f238f83069c448ff66d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11988
content:
"The long lifespan of hydropower dams exposes them to decades of \r\nclimatic change risk. There is a wide range of uncertainty around the \r\nfuture climate of Africa's major river basins, but in several basins, \r\nthere is the likelihood of increased rainfall variability and a drier \r\nclimate (see Box 9.5). In countries that rely primarily on hydropower, \r\nclimate change could have considerable impacts on electricity prices \r\nand as a result, consumers' expenditure (Sridharan et al., 2019). With \r\nincreasing societal demands on limited water resources and future \r\nclimate change, it is expected that there will be an intensification \r\nof WEF competition and trade-offs (high confidence) (Section  9.7; \r\nBox 9.5)."


id: 4ff61e6c6143aae09d01f7faf3e2304e
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Projections for 173 African cities show that around 25 cities will have \r\nover 150 days per year with an apparent temperature above 40.6degC for \r\n1.7degC global warming, increasing to 35 cities for 2.1degC and 65 cities \r\nfor 4.4degC warming, with west African cities most affected (Rohat et al., \r\n2019). Across Africa, urban population exposure to extreme heat was \r\nestimated to be 2 billion person-days per year above 40degC for 1985-\r\n2005 (that is the annual average number of days with a maximum \r\ntemperature above 40.6degC multiplied by the number of people exposed \r\nto that temperature), but this is expected to increase to 45  billion \r\nperson-days for 1.7degC global warming with low population growth \r\n(SSP1), and to 95  billion person-days for 2.8degC and medium-high "


id: 80d5820a9e0f5849d198d7b978fe429e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Autonomous responses to climate impacts in 40 African cities show \r\nthat excess rainfall is the primary climate driver of adaptation, followed \r\nby multi-hazard impacts, with 72% of responses focused on excess \r\nrainfall (Hunter et al., 2020). Innovation for adaptation in areas such \r\nas home design, social networks, organisations and infrastructure, is \r\nevident (Swanepoel and Sauka, 2019). Social learning platforms also \r\nincrease communities' adaptive capacities and resilience to risk (Thorn \r\net al., 2015)."


id: 5a99952e69b62a3198057e232ddf9c25
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content:
"Ecosystem-based approaches are also being deployed in mitigating \r\nand adapting to climate change, with demonstrated long-term health, \r\necological and social co-benefits (Section 9.6.4; Swanepoel and Sauka, \r\n2019). The cost-benefit analysis of nature-based solutions, compared \r\nto purely grey infrastructure initiatives, is discussed in Chapter 6 \r\n(Section  6.3.3). Nature-based solutions can also lengthen the life of \r\nexisting built infrastructure (du Toit et al., 2018). Since 2014, an increasing \r\nnumber of EbA projects involving the restoration of mangrove, wetland \r\nand riparian ecosystems have been initiated across Africa, a majority of \r\nwhich address water-related climate risks (Table 9.9)."


id: a5e3580aa9c7d2962babe27ffd1eebeb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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vector_id: 26407
content:
"For green infrastructure to be successful, however, sustainable landscapes \r\nand regions require both stewardship and management at multiple \r\nlevels of governance and social scales (Brink et al., 2016)."


id: 59c6d6c07f100c3d34e7087f9f7cbebf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Currently, planned climate change adaptation to coastal hazards \r\nin Africa's large coastal cities has mainly been achieved through \r\nexpensive coastal engineering efforts such as sea walls, revetments, \r\nbreakwaters, spillways, dikes and groynes. Examples are found in \r\nwest Africa (Adelekan, 2016; Alves et al., 2020). Beach nourishment \r\nefforts have also been undertaken in Egypt, Banjul and Lagos (Frihy \r\net al., 2016; Alves et al., 2020). However, the use of vegetated coastal \r\necosystems presents greater opportunities for African cities because of \r\nthe lower costs (Duarte et al., 2013)."


id: 936b288005bf88321ed79bf178f71407
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Most (>80%) of Africa's large coastal cities have no adaptation \r\npolicies and, where available, these are mostly, except for South \r\nAfrica, dominated by national plans (Olazabal et  al., 2019). Coastal \r\nadaptation actions minimally consider socioeconomic projections and \r\nare not at all aligned with future climate scenarios and risks, which is \r\nhighly limiting for adaptation planning (Olazabal et al., 2019)."


id: 4673a424b8cecee5199416ad0e9707b9
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"incur higher economic costs through adaptation policy when compared \r\nto no adaptation policy (Cervigni et al., 2017)."


id: c40ae1456b1a31e247bf1fb5b08d168c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Adaptation measures in the transport sector have focused on the climate \r\nresilience of road infrastructure. Modelling suggests that proactive \r\nadaptation of road designs to account for temperature increases is a \r\n'no regret' option in all cases, but accounting for precipitation increases \r\nshould be assessed on a case-by-case basis (medium confidence) \r\n(Cervigni et al., 2017). African governments will need climate adaptation \r\nfinancing options to meet the higher capital requirements of resilient \r\nroad infrastructure interventions (Hearn, 2016)."


id: 1ec0019e2f48b258cb30048253f7d80c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Africa's smaller towns and cities have received far less scholarly and \r\npolicy development attention for adaptation (Clapp and Pillay, 2017; \r\nWhite and Wahba, 2019). Smaller towns also have less ability to partner \r\neffectively with private entities for adaptation initiatives (Wisner et al., \r\n2015). Political will to address climate change and information flows \r\nbetween key stakeholders, professional and political decision makers \r\nmay be easier to establish in smaller cities than in the megacity context \r\n(Wisner et al., 2015)."


id: 24b97983f6d8608f276a0b75d1c574b1
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"Exposure and vulnerability are particularly acute in informal areas, \r\nmaking coordinated adaptation challenging. Yet, there is growing \r\nrecognition of the potential for bottom-up adaptation that embraces \r\ninformality in order to more effectively reduce risk (Figure 9.31; Taylor \r\net al., 2021a). This can provide an opportunity for change towards more \r\nrisk-sensitive urban development and transformative climate adaptation \r\n(Leck et al., 2018). Addressing social vulnerability is particularly important \r\nfor ensuring the resilience of populations at risk. Improved monitoring, \r\nmodelling and communication of climate risks is needed to reduce the \r\nimpacts of climate hazards (Tramblay et al., 2020; Cole et al., 2021a)."


id: 9a982d292747717bdba3fd784fb1c307
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Most electricity infrastructure in Africa has been designed to account \r\nfor historical climatic patterns. Failure to consider future climate \r\nscenarios in power system planning increases the climate risk facing \r\ninfrastructure and supplies. Yet, energy demand for cooling over Africa, \r\nfor example, is expected to increase, with a potential increase in heat \r\nstress, population growth and rapid urbanisation to 1.2% of total final "


id: 60c6ef0ee6e0bd697817d03036cc3ac5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Higher costs will be incurred to maintain and repair damages caused \r\nto existing roads as a result of climate change for countries with no \r\nadaptation policy for transport infrastructure (very high confidence) \r\n(Chinowsky et  al., 2013; Cervigni et  al., 2017; Koks et  al., 2019). \r\nCountries with a greater percentage of unpaved roads will, however, "


id: a7af2f370d7a770ba1184d29b6be8346
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content:
"Figure 9.31 |  Key elements of adaptation in informal settlements in Africa. Adapted from Thorn et al. (2015); Fedele et al. (2019); Satterthwaite et al. (2020)."


id: f1549980069ecbbf387f539ddad5d931
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content:
"Table 9.10 |  Transport sector references in the National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) of five African countries. Source: Government of Burkina Faso (2015); Government of Cameroon \r\n(2015); Government of Togo (2016); Government of Kenya (2017); Government of Ethiopia (2019)."


id: 280973a1b764aeb3c6109d0ac7554243
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"For hydropower, adaptations to different climate conditions can \r\nbe made at the level of the power plant, turbine size and reservoir \r\nstorage capacities, and can be adjusted to projected hydrological \r\npatterns (Lempert et  al., 2015). At the river basin level, integrated \r\nwater resource management practices can be implemented across "


id: 32b5faae8c9345e167efbb50dc8603c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"energy demand by 2100 compared to 0.4% in 2005 (Parkes et  al., \r\n2019). Integrated energy system costs from increased demand for \r\ncooling to mitigate heat stress are projected to accumulate from 2005 \r\nto USD 51.3 billion by 2035 at 2degC and to USD 486.5 billion by 2076 at \r\n4degC global warming (Parkes et al., 2019)."


id: f37da20bb8b4109022a34c005dba55d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Figure 9.32 |  Risks to health in Africa increase with increasing global warming. Observed climate impacts and projected climate change risks across African regions \r\nfor eight key health outcomes. Global warming levels shown refer to increases relative to pre-industrial values (1850-1900). This list of health impacts and risks is not intended \r\nto be exhaustive, but instead focuses on well-documented conditions. This assessment is a synthesis across 58 studies on observed impacts and 29 studies on projected risks for \r\nhealth (see Table SM 9.7). The category of air pollution-related health outcomes includes health impacts from changing particulate matter concentrations due to climate change."


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"sectors with other societal and ecological demands under increasingly \r\nvariable climate and hydrological conditions (Section 9.7.3)."


id: 727eb5fb9b3555f98f0196c286c2cc94
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content:
"sectors that compete for the same water resources (Howells et  al., \r\n2013). At the power system level, the energy mix and the protocol \r\nthrough which different power plants are dispatched can be adapted \r\nto different climate scenarios (Spalding-Fecher et al., 2017; Sridharan \r\net al., 2019)."


id: a26e6106a0f95b60e48a8d7a3d7b7a93
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Given the uncertainty around future hydroclimate conditions, \r\nhydropower development decisions carry risk of 'regrets' (that is, \r\ndamages or missed opportunities) when a different climate than was \r\nexpected materialises. 'Robust adaptation' refers to an adaptation \r\nstrategy that balances risks across different climate scenarios (Cross\u0002Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17; Cervigni et al., 2015). Development \r\nbank lending principles require consideration of the regional picture \r\nand interactions with other developments along a river when they \r\ndetermine the social and environmental impacts of the proposed \r\nhydropower project. However, these principles often do not explicitly \r\nconsider climate change, so the risk of recurring drought-induced \r\nhydropower shortages could be missed (Box 9.5)."


id: a0be3ed6be594018950d30f4ac839b76
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"The health section is organised by disease or health outcome, with \r\nobserved impacts and projected risks described for each condition. All \r\nadaptation options are presented at the end of the section, highlighting \r\nprevention and preparedness, community engagement and disease\u0002specific adaptation options."


id: 285bc60e0539262470e689c08b238030
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"The social determinants of health are 'the conditions in which people \r\nare born, grow, live, work and age' as well as the drivers of these, \r\nincluding the social circumstances which profoundly affect health \r\nand drive health disparities (Commission of Social Determinants of \r\nHealth, 2008; Gurewich et  al., 2020). Social features (e.g., health\u0002related behaviours), socioeconomic factors (e.g., income, wealth and \r\neducation) and environmental determinants (e.g., air or water quality) \r\nare critical for shaping health outcomes. These factors are inextricably "


id: de9237f78bc0ca61ab38d6d936723fa3
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content:
"Lastly, given the degree to which hydropower competes with other \r\nsectors and ecosystems for the same water resources, it is critical \r\nthat hydropower planning and adaptation does not occur in isolation. \r\nAs discussed in Section  9.7, it must be part of an integrated water \r\nmanagement system that balances the needs of different water-reliant "


id: 699d719258e12645884b19f0841c7429
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content:
"studies show both positive (Adu-Prah and Kofi Tetteh, 2015; Darkoh \r\net al., 2017) and negative (M'Bra et al., 2018) correlations of malaria \r\nincidence with increases in mean monthly temperatures, and an \r\nabundance of Anopheles gambiae s.s. associated with mean diurnal \r\ntemperature (Akpan et al., 2018)."


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vector_id: 2199
content:
"Malaria incidence and outbreaks in east Africa were linked with both \r\nmoderate monthly rainfall and extreme flooding (Boyce et al., 2016; \r\nAmadi et  al., 2018; Simple et  al., 2018), and increase 1-2  months \r\nafter periods of rainfall in southern and west Africa (Diouf et  al., \r\n2017; Ferrao et al., 2017; Adeola et al., 2019). The years following La \r\nNina events (southern Africa) (Adeola et al., 2017)) and high relative \r\nhumidity (west Africa) (Adu-Prah and Kofi Tetteh, 2015; Darkoh et al., \r\n2017) have been positively linked with malaria incidence."


id: c1d99bd754e7677ad2328d1c827f7d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31406
content:
"Climate change is already impacting certain health outcomes in \r\nAfrica (e.g. temperature-related mortality) and risks for most (but \r\nnot all) health outcomes are projected to increase with increasing \r\nglobal warming (Figure 9.32), with young children (<5 years old), the \r\nelderly (>65 years old), pregnant women, individuals with pre-existing \r\nmorbidities, physical labourers and people living in poverty or affected by \r\nother socioeconomic determinants of health being the most vulnerable \r\n(high confidence). Women may be more vulnerable to climate change \r\nimpacts than men (Chersich et al., 2018; Jaka and Shava, 2018; Adzawla \r\net al., 2019a). Contextualising projected impacts of climate change on \r\nhealth requires an understanding of observed impacts (Figure  9.32). \r\nWithout management and mitigation, current and projected morbidities \r\nand mortalities will put additional strain on health, social and economic \r\nsystems (Hendrix, 2017; Alonso et al., 2019)."


id: 5c38de3fa70a51c396d263a854d9c468
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13481
content:
"Higher temperatures and shifting patterns of rainfall influence the \r\ndistribution and incidence of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (high \r\nconfidence) (Agusto et  al., 2015; Beck-Johnson et  al., 2017). Up to \r\n10.9 million km2\r\n of sub-Saharan Africa is optimally suitable for year-round \r\nmalaria transmission (Mordecai et al., 2013; Ryan et al., 2015). Current \r\nclimate suitability for endemic malaria transmission is concentrated in \r\nthe central African region, some areas along the southern coast of west \r\nAfrica and the east African coast (Ryan et al., 2020)."


id: f983efa331f3af0d577bcd056e112121
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41267
content:
"Conversely, in some regions, changing climatic conditions are projected \r\nto reduce malaria hotspots and prevalence. With continued GHG \r\nemissions, these include: west Africa by 2030 (1.7degC global warming) \r\n(high confidence) (Yamana et al., 2016; Semakula et al., 2017b; Ryan \r\net al., 2020), parts of southern central Africa and dryland regions in east \r\nAfrica by 2050 (2.5degC global warming) (high confidence) (Semakula \r\net  al., 2017b; Ryan et  al., 2020) and large areas of southern central \r\nAfrica and the western Sahel by 2100 (>4degC global warming) (Yu et al., "


id: d2c3ef86ab0e87838a3c60f68aa28c3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34431
content:
"In east Africa, there has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector \r\ninto higher altitudes (Gone et  al., 2014; Carlson et  al., 2019) and \r\nincreasing incidence of infection with Plasmodium falciparum with \r\nhigher temperatures (high confidence) (Alemu et al., 2014; Lyon et al., \r\n2017). Over southern Africa, changes in temperature and rainfall are \r\nincreasing malaria transmission (Abiodun et al., 2018). In west Africa, "


id: 62c0f0da7df35f3fe2208702a0d7a43e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14671
content:
"2015; Tourre et al., 2019). These reductions in transmission correspond \r\nwith decreasing environmental suitability for the malaria vector and \r\nparasite in these regions (Ryan et al., 2015; Mordecai et al., 2020). Most \r\nareas in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, \r\nSierra Leone, Zambia and Zimbabwe will have almost zero malaria \r\ntransmission under RCP8.5 (Semakula et al., 2017b; Tourre et al., 2019)."


id: 2736065aa45c29669d7ebea79a1d9465
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4062
content:
"The ENSO cycle currently contributes to seasonal epidemic malaria in \r\nepidemic-prone areas (high confidence), and is projected to shift the \r\nmalaria epidemic fringe southward and into higher altitudes by mid\u0002to end-century (high confidence) (Bouma et al., 2016; Semakula et al., \r\n2017b; Caminade et al., 2019). More evidence is needed, however, of \r\nclimate variability impacts through ENSO cycles in future risk projections, \r\nas well as a deeper understanding of how climate change will impact \r\nthe length of transmission season for mosquitoes, particularly in areas \r\nwhere increases in spring and autumn temperatures may increase \r\nsuitability for the reproduction of malaria vectors (Ryan et al., 2020). \r\nOther gaps in knowledge include a better understanding of mosquito \r\nthermal biology and thermal limits for a variety of species, potential \r\nadaptations to extreme temperatures and how landscape changes \r\ncontribute to malaria transmission (Tompkins and Caporaso, 2016)."


id: 6b3dd9476657cd5a064ddef7fd66364c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16164
content:
"Africa has the highest rates of death due to diarrhoeal diseases in the \r\nworld (Havelaar et al., 2015; Troeger et al., 2018) and many children have \r\nrepeated diarrhoeal episodes with impaired growth, stunting, immune \r\ndysfunction and reduced cognitive performance (Squire and Ryan, \r\n2017). High land and sea temperatures (Paz, 2009; Musengimana et al., \r\n2016) and precipitation extremes increase transmission of bacterial and \r\nprotozoal diarrhoeal disease agents (Boeckmann et al., 2019) through \r\ncontamination of drinking water and food preparation and preservation \r\npractices (Figure 9.33; Levy et al., 2016; Soneja et al., 2016; Walker, 2018)."


id: afed8c02608010016b64eed3ac24c5d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28190
content:
"Climate variability has driven a global intensification of mosquito\u0002borne viruses (e.g., dengue, Zika and RVF), including expansion into \r\nareas with higher altitudes (Leedale et al., 2016; Mweya et al., 2016; \r\nMessina et  al., 2019). Concerns centre on diseases vectored by the \r\nyellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti), common throughout most \r\nof sub-Saharan Africa, and the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), \r\ncurrently largely confined to western central Africa (Kraemer et  al., \r\n2019; Mordecai et al., 2020)."


id: c64a3ac64dff564be2c4dbab496e9288
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32199
content:
"Cholera incidence has been shown to increase with temperature \r\n(Traerup et al., 2011). Outbreaks, however, are most frequent in east \r\nand southern Africa following tropical cyclones (Moore et al., 2017b; \r\nTroeger et al., 2018; Ajayi and Smith, 2019; Cambaza et al., 2019)."


id: cd4deef3e6958eac21466c3363ac6763
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33459
content:
"Although warming temperatures are largely responsible for increasing \r\nenvironmental suitability for mosquito vectors (Mordecai et  al., \r\n2019), droughts can augment transmission when open water storage \r\nprovides breeding sites near human settlements, and when flooding \r\nenables mosquitoes to proliferate and spread viruses further (Mweya \r\net al., 2017; Bashir and Hassan, 2019). Within Africa's rapidly growing \r\ncities, diseases vectored by urban-adapted Aedes mosquitoes pose a \r\nmajor threat, especially in west Africa (Zahouli et al., 2017; Weetman \r\net al., 2018; Messina et al., 2019). Dengue virus expansion may cause \r\nexplosive outbreaks but the burden of dengue haemorrhagic fever and \r\nassociated mortality is higher in areas where transmission is already \r\nendemic (Murray et al., 2013)."


id: 18f649ebf227a0c081e8bd2bcaca12c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1606
content:
"Africa's rapidly urbanising population increases the demand for \r\nfreshwater and is occurring in places that already have stretched water \r\nand sanitation infrastructure (Howard et  al., 2016). These conditions, \r\nespecially during periods of water scarcity, can reduce the frequency and \r\nadequacy of hand washing and thereby increase disease transmission."


id: f3802a0d0453be8099f367ed7a5c1bf8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40217
content:
"Disruptions in water availability, such as during droughts or infrastructure \r\nbreakdown, will jeopardise access to safe water and adequate sanitation, \r\nundermine hygiene practices and increase environmental contamination \r\nwith toxins (Howard et al., 2016; WWF-SA, 2016; Miller and Hutchins, \r\n2017)."


id: 6cf1cb0eca3f0fb1b85cdb67f89ee939
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16444
content:
"Populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and \r\nepidemics of dengue and yellow fever and other Aedes-borne viruses \r\nare expected to increase, including at high altitudes (Weetman et al., \r\n2018; Messina et al., 2019; Ryan et al., 2019; Gaythorpe et al., 2020; \r\nMordecai et al., 2020). Aedes albopictus may expand beyond western \r\ncentral Africa into Chad, Mali and Burkina Faso by mid-century at \r\n>2degC global warming (Kraemer et al., 2019). Shifts projected in Aedes"


id: fcbe47509785e676c9cbd45231f2a58e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41830
content:
"Climate change is projected to cause 20,000-30,000 additional \r\ndiarrhoeal deaths in children (<15  years old) by mid-century under \r\n1.5degC-2.1degC global warming (WHO, 2014), with west Africa most \r\naffected, followed by east, central and southern Africa. Cholera \r\noutbreaks are anticipated to impact east Africa most severely during \r\nand particularly after ENSO events (Moore et al., 2017b)."


id: 1509d0650499557ab04c3a84a6284e43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 913
content:
"Rapid advances in vaccination and other control measures in high-income countries means that the burden of COVID-19 is increasingly \r\nconcentrated in low- and middle-income countries, including those in Africa. The extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic is influenced \r\nby weather or by future changes in climate remains contested (WMO, 2021). In time, COVID-19 may develop seasonal dynamics (Baker \r\net al., 2020; Kissler et al., 2020) similar to other respiratory infections (Carlson et al., 2020b)."


id: 570f72afe66b0ebf5c70d35e1a1e0c0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12573
content:
"Early work interpreted low-reported cases of COVID-19 in Africa as suggesting evidence of a protective climatic effect, but increasing \r\nevidence indicates the role of climate is secondary to the timing of disease introduction, the pace of implementation of non-pharmaceutical \r\ninterventions and surveillance gaps (Evans et  al., 2020; WMO, 2021). Going forward, testing coverage, reporting, governance, non\u0002pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine distribution and uptake are likely to be far more significant for Africa's COVID-19 trajectory than \r\nclimate change. Compounding risks, where climate hazards and natural disasters impair outbreak responses, may disrupt interventions \r\nor cause additional deaths (Phillips et al., 2020; Salas et al., 2020)."


id: 4ca3a1de7f5a1d6a563997eccf241fbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10749
content:
"them at high risk for morbidity and death during extreme heat (Abayomi \r\nand Cowan, 2014). Moreover, extreme weather events accompanied by \r\ndamage to health system infrastructure could compromise the continuity \r\nof antiretroviral treatment (Weiser et al., 2010; Pozniak et al., 2020)."


id: eb8aa09b87f5280fbfcac32d6588f58c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38804
content:
"Although levels of new HIV infections declined sharply during the \r\nlast decade, still more than a million adults and children become \r\ninfected each year (UNAIDS, 2020). Climate influences on HIV are \r\npredominately indirect such as through heightened migration due to \r\nclimate variability, or extreme weather events leading to increased \r\ntransactional sex to replace lost sources of income. Changes in \r\nclimate affect each of the main drivers of HIV transmission in women, \r\nincluding poverty, inequity and gender-based violence (Burke et  al., \r\n2015a; Loevinsohn, 2015; Fiorella et al., 2019)."


id: 55980cb255b07a490e113cf81f461a21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12330
content:
"Poor populations in the western Sahel have the highest burden of \r\nbacterial meningitis worldwide, with seasonal dynamics driven by the \r\ndry Harmattan winds that transport dust long distances across the \r\ncontinent (Agier et al., 2013; Garcia-Pando et al., 2014). In Nigeria, rising \r\ntemperatures are projected to increase meningitis cases by about 50% for \r\n1.8degC global warming (RCP2.6 in 2060-2075), and by almost double for \r\n3.4degC global warming (RCP8.5 in 2060-2075) (Abdussalam et al., 2014). \r\nBilharzia is also highly climate sensitive, with its distribution influenced \r\nby changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as development, \r\nsuch as the introduction of freshwater projects (e.g., canals, hydroelectric \r\ndams and irrigation schemes) (Adekiya et al., 2019)."


id: 49a1f6ce2f00e553704515d28016e881
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10184
content:
"'Oscillating' or 'circular' migration for migrant workers in urban and \r\nmining centres drove HIV transmission in the 1990s and 2000s (Lurie, \r\n2006), and climate-related displacement may have similar effects (See \r\nBox 9.7; Gray and Mueller, 2012; Loevinsohn, 2015; Low et al., 2019). \r\nFood insecurity and nutritional deficiencies, projected to increase with \r\nincreasingly variable climates, has been shown to increase sexual risk\u0002taking and migration, as well as increase susceptibility to other infections \r\n(Lieber et  al., 2021). Projected increases in exposure to infectious \r\ndiseases pose considerable threats to HIV-infected people who may \r\nalready have compromised immune function. Additionally, reduced lung \r\nfunction in people with HIV from previous tuberculosis infection may put "


id: 53ce302f48ef8f8575cb115df4d6bac1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12015
content:
"GHG mitigation is projected to save tens of thousands of lives: \r\nlimiting warming to RCP4.5 (2.5degC) rather than RCP8.5 (4.4degC) at the \r\nend of the century is projected to avoid on average 71 deaths per \r\n100,000 people annually across Africa with larger reductions in risk \r\nin north, west, central and parts of east Africa (Figure 9.35). The cost \r\nof mitigating heat stress using energy-intensive cooling methods is \r\nexpected to be unachievable for many African countries (Parkes et al., \r\n2019; see Section 9.9.4)."


id: 98991fcc7400af5fea3d71cf02a785d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24064
content:
"et  al., 2018; van der Linden et  al., 2019), with increased levels of \r\nmortality recorded on days with raised temperatures in Burkina Faso \r\n(Kynast-Wolf et  al., 2010; Diboulo et  al., 2012; Bunker et  al., 2017), \r\nGhana (Azongo et  al., 2012), Kenya (Egondi et  al., 2012; Egondi \r\net al., 2015), South Africa (Wichmann, 2017; Scovronick et al., 2018), \r\nTanzania (Mrema et al., 2012) and Tunisia (Bettaieb et al., 2010; Leone \r\net al., 2013). Cause of death most commonly involves cardiovascular \r\ndiseases (Kynast-Wolf et  al., 2010; Scovronick et  al., 2018), but \r\nincreased incidences of respiratory (Scovronick et  al., 2018), stroke \r\n(Longo-Mbenza et al., 1999) and non-communicable diseases (Bunker \r\net al., 2017) have also been linked with heat."


id: 56792a7460ca840203f93b834527a0ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12472
content:
"Excess death rates from non-optimal temperature in sub-Saharan \r\nAfrica are estimated to be nearly double the global average, with 24% \r\nof the more than 5 million annual deaths globally associated with non\u0002optimal temperature occurring in Africa (Zhao et al., 2021). The region \r\nhad the world's highest cold-related excess death ratio and lowest \r\nheat-related excess death ratio over the period 2000-2019. However, \r\nduring this time, cold-related excess deaths declined more rapidly than \r\nthe increase in heat-related excess deaths, resulting in a net decrease \r\nin the excess death ratio from temperature."


id: a971b63758c5f849664d682950ee868e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27036
content:
"Recent estimates of the burden of mortality associated with the \r\nadditional heat exposure from recent human-caused global warming \r\nsuggest approximately 43.8% of heat-related mortality in South Africa \r\nwas attributable to human-caused climate change from 1991-2018 \r\n(Vicedo-Cabrera et  al., 2021). In many of South Africa's 52 districts, \r\nthis equates to dozens of deaths per year. The elderly and children \r\nunder 5 years are most vulnerable to heat exposure (Sewe et al., 2015; \r\nScovronick et al., 2018)."


id: ffb1635c16438358c051a4ba6f2a7b39
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42378
content:
"The urban heat island effect exacerbates current and projected heat \r\nstress in Africa's rapidly growing cities (Mitchell, 2016) and is discussed \r\nin more detail in Section 9.9.3."


id: 8f00a590ddbedc1d8d359e0fb0b0814a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22356
content:
"Escalating temperatures and longer-duration heatwaves are expected\r\nto heavily affect workers already exposed to extreme temperatures, \r\nfor example, outdoor workers (Kjellstrom et  al., 2018) and miners \r\n(El-Shafei et al., 2018; Nunfam et al., 2019a; Nunfam et al., 2019b). \r\nVulnerability may also be high for women who cook food for a living, \r\nand children who accompany them, due to prolonged exposure to \r\nhigh temperatures (Parmar et  al., 2019). Prisons, commonly poorly \r\nventilated and overcrowded, are also high-risk settings (Van Hout and \r\nMhlanga-Gunda, 2019)."


id: e67b799b9f163acb961ae39cf9835eae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37851
content:
"Globally, Africa is predicted to suffer disproportionately from higher \r\ntemperature-related all-cause mortality from global warming, compared \r\nto temperate northern hemisphere countries (Carleton et al., 2018). The \r\nnumber of days projected to exceed potentially lethal heat thresholds \r\nper year reaches 50-150 days in west Africa at 1.6degC global warming, \r\nup to 200 days in west Africa and 100-150 days in central Africa and \r\nparts of coastal east Africa at 2.5degC, and over 200 days for parts of west, \r\ncentral and east Africa for >4degC global warming (Mora et al., 2017; see \r\nSections 9.5.3-7; Figure 9.15). Projected rates of heat-related mortality \r\namong people in the Middle East and north Africa who are older than \r\n65 years increase by 8-20 fold in 2070-2099, compared with 1951-\r\n2005, based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (both at >2degC global warming) \r\n(Ahmadalipour and Moradkhani, 2018)."


id: 426ba07b1351dd0ff7677eea016e2db5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8881
content:
"Exposure to high temperatures during pregnancy has been linked with \r\nadverse birth outcomes, including stillbirths or miscarriages (Asamoah \r\net al., 2018) and long-term behavioural and developmental deficiencies \r\n(Duchoslav, 2017; MacVicar et al., 2017)."


id: 98dab79aaf6f324a797bba66b815e5ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24112
content:
"Temperature-related mortality across Africa is projected to escalate \r\nwith global warming. Above 1.5degC the risk of heat-related deaths \r\nrises sharply, with at least 15 additional deaths per 100,000 annually \r\nacross large parts of Africa, reaching 50-180 additional deaths per \r\n100,000 people annually in regions of north, west, and east Africa \r\nfor 2.5degC global warming, and increasing to 200-600 per 100,000 \r\npeople annually for 4.4degC global warming (Figure 9.35; Carleton et al., \r\n2018). However, some regions that currently experience cold-related \r\nmortality (e.g., Lesotho and Ethiopian Highlands) are projected to \r\nhave reduced temperature-related mortality risk from warming. "


id: cb00fae7ca52a6f1e7003837e9f969f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33055
content:
"During extreme conditions, for example, Cyclone Kenneth (Codjoe \r\net  al., 2020) and El Nino 2015-2016 (WHO, 2016; Pozniak et  al., \r\n2020), direct physical injury, loss of life, destruction of property and \r\npopulation displacement can occur. Flooding and landslides are \r\ncommon after extreme rainfall and are the most frequently described \r\nimpact of climate variability in Africa's cities currently, with residents "


id: c2fb2d1bbdd54f226a1ec6601e1baa36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31576
content:
"Figure 9.35 |  Projected temperature-related mortality risk in Africa with increasing global warming. Maps show changes in mortality rates in deaths per 100,000 \r\nfor global warming in the years 2020-2039, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099 for "


id: 4b80eddcbebd02cb7c50a3282b05ba4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10538
content:
"of poorly serviced or informal settlements most vulnerable (Hunter \r\net  al., 2020). Post-traumatic stress disorders in affected individuals \r\nare common, including in children (Rother, 2020). In rural areas, the \r\nresulting damage to health facilities, access routes and transport \r\nservices can severely compromise health service delivery (WHO, 2016). \r\nThe effects of extreme weather on urban health infrastructure depends \r\non the characteristics, location and adaptive capacity of cities (see \r\nSection 9.9.4)."


id: bc4597a243f3744ad7c2fe77219e2599
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30369
content:
"Paradoxically, despite growing levels of undernutrition, the incidence \r\nof overweight and obesity continues to rise in Africa, particularly in \r\nchildren under 5 years from the northern and southern parts of the \r\ncontinent (FAO and ECA, 2018). Diabetes is increasingly prevalent \r\nand outcomes may worsen if climate change undermines health \r\ninfrastructure and the range of available foods (Keeling et al., 2012; \r\nKula et al., 2013; Chersich and Wright, 2019)."


id: 96569bdb46df6daacea27eeb1e31619c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23648
content:
"Africa has experienced the greatest impacts of climate change on acute \r\nfood insecurity and malnutrition (FAO and ECA, 2018). Adverse climatic \r\nconditions exacerbate the impacts of an unstable global economy, \r\nconflict and pandemics on food insecurity (AfDB, 2018b; Food Security \r\nInformation Network (FSIN), 2019; Fore et  al., 2020; see Chapter  5 \r\nSection 5.12.4)."


id: ce969490cddc9065e326ee1f9c32d55a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The relationship between cancer and climate change is complex \r\nand indirect. Changing temperature and humidity may alter the \r\ndistribution of aflatoxin-producing fungi, contaminating food (grains, \r\nmaize) and causing cancer (see Box 5.9 in Chapter 5; Sserumaga et al., \r\n2020; Valencia-Quintana et al., 2020). Severe storms and flooding may \r\ndisrupt wastewater treatment or disposal, potentially contaminating \r\ndrinking water with carcinogenic substances."


id: 6422893f0d9a9dfd3183ebb79492d654
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14897
content:
"More than 250 million Africans are undernourished, mostly in central \r\nand east Africa (FAO et al., 2020), which increases childhood stunting, \r\naffects cognition and has trans-generational sequelae (IFPRI, 2016; \r\nUNICEF et al., 2019). Undernutrition is strongly linked with hot climates \r\n(Hagos et  al., 2014; Tusting et  al., 2020). In Burkina Faso, low crop \r\nyields resulted in around 110 deaths per 10,000 children under 5 years, \r\nwith 72% of this impact attributable to adverse climate conditions in \r\nthe growing season (Belesova et al., 2019)."


id: af45ff8fb8a3bbc71edacc49dc1fdde0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28070
content:
"Areas with low service provision (e.g., informal settlements in Africa) \r\nsuffer from increased infestations of pests such as flies, cockroaches, \r\nrats, bedbugs and lice, which may be controlled by chemical pesticides \r\n(Rother et al., 2020) and may become more prevalent with a changing \r\nclimate (Mafongoya et  al., 2019). Inappropriate pesticide use and \r\ndisposal cause endocrine disruption and increased incidences of some \r\ncancers (Rother et al., 2020)."


id: 2444452e28b619cf1af5374a441ec66b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3573
content:
"Increasing incidence and expanded distributions of vector-borne livestock \r\ndiseases (e.g., bluetongue, trypanosomiasis and RVF) in response to \r\nchanges in rainfall and increasing temperatures, undermine food security, \r\nespecially among subsistence farmers (Samy and Peterson, 2016; \r\nCaminade et al., 2019). Locust infestations linked with changes in climate \r\n(Salih et al., 2020) are a major risk for food security in Africa."


id: e58455f810f1019b7a1e37a686de0704
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37686
content:
"Mental health and well-being are affected by local climate conditions \r\nand are therefore sensitive to climate change (Burke et  al., 2018b; \r\nObradovich et  al., 2018). High temperatures are strongly associated \r\nwith poor mental health and suicide in South Africa (Kim et al., 2019). \r\nExposure to extreme heat directly influences emotional control, \r\naggression and violent behaviour, escalating rates of interpersonal \r\nviolence, with homicides rising by as much as 18% in South Africa when \r\ntemperatures are above 30degC compared with temperatures below 20degC \r\n(Burke et al., 2015a; Chersich et al., 2019b; Gates et al., 2019)."


id: 4ef320f6e0f39b2dfac842af86ac8f7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11175
content:
"Extreme weather events are often severely detrimental to mental health \r\n(Scheerens et al., 2020), with elevated rates of anxiety, post-traumatic \r\nstress disorder and depression in impacted individuals (Schlenker and \r\nLobell, 2010; Nuvey et al., 2020). Youths may be at especially high risk \r\n(Barkin et al., 2021)."


id: a113baf839de659449a81ac94ace2c67
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25560
content:
"Loss of livestock from disease or lack of pastures is strongly linked \r\nwith poor mental health among farmers (Nuvey et al., 2020). Climate \r\nchange impacts on mental health among refugees is concerning but \r\nremains under-researched (Matlin et al., 2018)."


id: c8da38f04c8afc2098e6a2e1c3d21c3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32664
content:
"Links between climate change and the environmental risk factors for \r\nnon-communicable diseases (NCDs) may be direct (e.g., extreme heat \r\nexposure in people with cardiovascular disease) or indirect, such as \r\nvia the global agriculture and food industry (Landrigan et al., 2018). \r\nThese effects are largely unreported for Africa (Amegah et al., 2016), \r\nwhere the burden of many NCDs is growing rapidly with increasing \r\nurbanisation and pollution (Rother, 2020)."


id: 96daec41711367e813d6ffd9f7b31ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23738
content:
"Links between air quality and climate change are complex (Smith \r\net  al., 2014; Szopa et  al., 2021). Increases in particulate matter \r\nconcentrations are driven more by vehicle emissions, solid waste, \r\nbiomass burning and development (Abera et  al., 2021) than by \r\nclimate change, and these factors vary widely across regions of the \r\ncontinent (West et al., 2013). Women and children who are exposed \r\nto high particulate matter concentrations when cooking indoors and \r\nHIV-infected people are more vulnerable to the health impacts of air "


id: b04b5b03e3761b7de06b1b531b074db9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28252
content:
"Many urban poor populations have unhealthy dietary practices, which \r\npresent major risks for obesity, type II diabetes and hypertension. "


id: b336d598d102cdbc934f9789465377d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28771
content:
"RCP4.5), anthropogenic sources of particulate matter are projected to \r\nexceed that produced by wildfires (Knorr et al., 2017)."


id: aff9250af3f4c4557ab3aa00788a4887
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28197
content:
"pollution (Abera et al., 2021). Information on the direction of change of \r\nair quality in different African regions attributable to climate change are \r\ncontradictory (Westervelt et al., 2016; Silva et al., 2017). Additionally, \r\nmuch uncertainty remains about interactions between air quality and \r\nclimate change and relative impacts of different modes of development \r\nand climate change on pollutants. However, increasing temperatures \r\ncombined with a reduction in rainfall are likely to increase particulate \r\nmatter concentrations (Abera et al., 2021), particularly in north Africa \r\n(Westervelt et al., 2016; Silva et al., 2017)."


id: 552a414ee7af33111a4240bebad23e5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12259
content:
"In this section, we focus on adaptation actions that are well-documented \r\nor shown to have the potential for substantially improving health or \r\nwell-being. These adaptation options are assessed in Figure 9.36 and \r\nTable 9.11."


id: c9e3c9e7c147680f1cd04b6417f17edf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32847
content:
"Nevertheless, continued dependence on fossil-fuelled power plants will \r\nresult in tens of thousands of avoidable deaths due to air pollution by \r\n2030 (Marais and Wiedinmyer, 2016), and accelerate climate change. \r\nActions to reduce air pollution can both mitigate climate change and \r\nhave major co-benefits for health (West et al., 2013; Rao et al., 2016; \r\nMarkandya et al., 2018; Rauner et al., 2020a; Rauner et al., 2020b) see \r\nalso AR6 WGIII, Chapters 3, 4, 8 and 10). Investing in renewable energy \r\nresources rather than reliance on the combustion of fossil fuels would \r\nmark an important step forward for African population health (Marais \r\net al., 2019). This is especially important in South Africa which emits \r\napproximately half the total carbon emissions for Africa, ranking 12th \r\nin the world for carbon emissions (Mohsin et al., 2019)."


id: a1b7ef007de59ae93db71a0c73070867
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25673
content:
"In Africa, adaptive responses have begun to be implemented by \r\nlocal, national and international entities (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, \r\n2017). With strong leadership, these initiatives can be used as an \r\nopportunity for comprehensive, transformative change rather than \r\nincremental improvements to existing systems. Adaptation responses\r\nare necessarily context specific and can focus on providing services \r\nfor vulnerable and high-risk populations (Dumenu and Obeng, 2016; \r\nHerslund et al., 2016)."


id: 1086c935cb6bfb916ae4e4d403fc9ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 96
content:
"Adaptation actions in the health sector range from building resilient \r\nhealth systems to preparing responses to health impacts of extreme \r\nweather events to reducing effects of increasing temperatures in \r\nresidential and occupational settings (Kjellstrom et al., 2016; Chersich \r\nand Wright, 2019). A climate-resilient health system involves functional \r\nand effective health systems (WHO, 2015), national and local policy \r\nplans with resources for implementation, and long- and short-term \r\ncommunication strategies to raise awareness around climate change \r\n(Nhamo and Muchuru, 2019)."


id: e777184ead6480dae36bc3f9aa865eac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38022
content:
"Dust events in west Africa have severe health impacts (cardiorespiratory \r\nand infectious diseases, including meningitis) (Ayanlade et al., 2020) \r\ngiven the proximity of the Sahara, which produces about half of the \r\nyearly global mineral dust (de Longueville et al., 2013). Wildfires are \r\nprojected to become the main source of particulate matter in west, \r\ncentral and southern Africa under both the lowest and highest future \r\nemissions scenarios, whereas, under intermediate scenarios (i.e., SSP3/"


id: efb559708198545aafa7c45408da3ece
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39552
content:
"The intersections between climate change and human health involve interactions of numerous systems and sectors (Lindley et al., 2019; \r\nYokohata et al., 2019). This complexity means that holistic, transdisciplinary and cross-sectoral (systems) approaches like One Health, \r\nEcoHealth and Planetary Health can improve the long-term effectiveness of responses to health risks (Zinsstag, 2012; Whitmee et al., \r\n2015; Nantima et al., 2019). More research is needed to identify sustainable solutions (Rother et al., 2020), as recently re-emphasised \r\nby the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity in its report on the COVID-19 pandemic (IPBES, 2020). The close dependency of many \r\nAfricans on their livestock and surrounding ecosystems forms a context where integrated health approaches are especially critical for \r\naddressing climate change risks to health (Figure Box 9.7.1; Watts et al., 2015; Cisse, 2019)."


id: f1537f27c6ba69df393e635bf43a1b50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Integrated approaches to health in Africa can deliver multiple benefits for humans and ecosystems For example, rather than addressing \r\nmicronutrient deficiencies with supplements, which may not be accepted culturally and can be disrupted by stockouts or similar, addressing \r\nnutrient deficiencies in staple crops by selecting or breeding more nutritious varieties (e.g., orange-fleshed sweet potatoes or 'golden rice' \r\nfor vitamin A deficiency) may prove to be more sustainable options (Datta et al., 2003; Nair et al., 2016; Laurie et al., 2018; Oduor et al., \r\n2019; Stokstad, 2019). Additionally, some micro- or macronutrient deficiencies and food insecurities may be improved by addressing the \r\ndepletion of soils through better management, including the incorporation of holistic, sustainable principles, such as those promoted by \r\nagroforestry or regenerative agriculture (Rhodes, 2017; Elevitch et al., 2018; LaCanne and Lundgren, 2018; Chapter 5 Section 5.12.4)."


id: c7d24b15c6b5e760b51a11162bf0f002
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32458
content:
"Figure Box 9.7.1 |  Human, ecosystem and animal health are intimately interlinked, and require transdisciplinary approaches such as One Health, \r\nEcoHealth and Planetary Health for effective, sustainable, long-term management. This schematic shows some examples of these interlinkages, and how \r\nthey impact human health, highlighting the complex interactions and the importance of holistic, systems approaches to health interventions, including for climate change \r\nadaptation. Supporting literature: (1) (Egoh et al., 2012); (2) (Wangai et al., 2016); (3) (Failler et al., 2018); (4) (Ifejika Speranza, 2010); (5) (Brancalion et al., 2020); (6) \r\n(Bloomfield et al., 2020); (7) (Rojas-Downing et al., 2017)."


id: 3768c7b4c33d10d4a28c526216d72c95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6962
content:
"Many health conditions associated with climate change are not new, \r\nand existing evidence-based interventions can be modified to address \r\nshifting disease patterns (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, 2017). Adaptation \r\noptions can build on a long tradition of community-based services in \r\nAfrica (Ebi and Otmani Del Barrio, 2017). Indeed, strengthening many \r\nof the services already provided (e.g., childhood vaccinations and \r\nvector control) will help curtail emerging burdens of climate-sensitive \r\nconditions. However, a disproportionate focus on emerging zoonotic \r\nand vector-borne viruses could undermine climate change adaptation \r\nefforts in Africa if it shifts the focus away from health system \r\nstrengthening and leaves few resources for addressing other health \r\nimpacts of climate change."


id: fe0d87ecd544bc8cd72c7a8fbb29482
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42064
content:
"Core components of an adaptation response include rapid impact \r\npackages (e.g., mass drug administration for schistosomiasis), education \r\nof women and direct poverty alleviation (Bailey et  al., 2019). Where \r\ndroughts are more frequent and rainfall patterns have shifted, adaptation \r\nsupport can be provided for strategies developed by communities, \r\nincluding the adaptation of livelihoods and diversification of crops and \r\nlivestock (Mbereko et al., 2018; Bailey et al., 2019). Continued efforts \r\nthrough partnerships, blending adaptation and disaster risk reduction, \r\nand long-term international financing are needed to bridge humanitarian \r\nand sustainable development priorities (Lindley et  al., 2019; Cross\u0002Chapter Box HEALTH in Chapter 7)."


id: ec0ec3fc786b3f2b3058bba666bbd7bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Measuring climate-health linkages is challenging due to the considerable \r\ndiversity of the exposures, impacts and outcomes, as well as constraints \r\nin key technical areas. Increasing our understanding of this diversity \r\nand how this is influenced by adaptative changes is a major knowledge \r\ngap. This could be facilitated through a pan-African database of climate \r\nand other environmental exposures, together with real-time statistical \r\nsupport for analyses of climate and health associations."


id: f55dfac2f683c3a558c3a26a9da60312
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40539
content:
"Improved institutional capacity for risk monitoring and early warning \r\nsystems is key to support emergency preparedness and responsiveness \r\nin Africa, as well as shock-responsive and long-term social protection \r\n(FAO and ECA, 2018). Climate risk assessments grounded in evidence \r\nand locally appropriate technologies are important for identifying \r\npriority actions, the scale of intervention needed and high-risk \r\ngeographical areas and populations. Potential tools include those \r\ndeveloped by WHO (Ceccato et al., 2018) and the Strategic Tool for \r\nAnalysis of Risk (Ario et al., 2019)."


id: 982a476122abea023265ba9a9fda2b40
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23982
content:
"Warning systems that predict seasonal to intra-seasonal climate risks \r\ncould assist in improving response times to extreme weather events \r\n(such as droughts, flooding or heat waves) and shifts in infectious \r\ndiseases. Weather and other types of forecasting provide an advanced \r\nwarning--a central tenet of disaster risk reduction (Funk et al., 2017; \r\nOkpara et  al., 2017a; Lumbroso, 2018). Models encompassing each \r\ncomponent of the human-animal-environmental interface, including \r\ndisease surveillance in humans and animals and remote sensing of \r\nvegetation indexes, water and soil can be used to project patterns of \r\nzoonose outbreaks (UNDP, 2016; Bashir and Hassan, 2019; Durand \r\net al., 2019). Early warning systems may help better prepare for these \r\nand other forms of infectious disease outbreaks (Thomson et al., 2006) \r\nbut adaptation is possible in the absence of statistical tools through \r\nvaccination and surveillance, for example."


id: 5dc857cc03dd551cb17d21915f02ce02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13791
content:
"Poor and low-income households often are not able to afford high \r\nout-of-pocket costs for medical care, or it consumes a large portion of \r\ntheir income. As a result, without financial aid, peoples' health needs \r\nmay not be met after a climate shock (Hallegatte and Rozenberg, \r\n2017). Microfinance (the provision of small-scale financial products \r\nto low income and otherwise disadvantaged groups by financial \r\ninstitutions) and disaster contingency funds can serve to reduce health \r\nrisks of climate change for low-income communities (Agrawala and \r\nCarraro, 2010; Ozaki, 2016), as can different forms of insurance and "


id: 4b3386156d5be303b72eebca8568b38b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Surveillance systems for diseases and vectors are well-established in \r\nmany parts of Africa (Ogden, 2017). However, many data gaps remain, \r\nespecially in monitoring climate-sensitive conditions such as diarrheal\u0002and arbovirus-related diseases, and morbidity and mortality stemming \r\nfrom heat exposure (Ogden, 2017; Buchwald et al., 2020)."


id: d2634dcd501c7ab3c310bd9bfc7cc27a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"disaster relief (Fenton et al., 2015; Dowla, 2018). Unconditional cash \r\ntransfers in Kenya, Uganda and Zambia assisted vulnerable groups to \r\nabsorb the negative impacts of climate-related shocks or stress and to \r\nprepare for these (Lawlor et al., 2019; Ulrichs et al., 2019). Based on \r\nseveral case studies in Africa, the Food and Agriculture Organization \r\nrecommends a 'Cash+' approach which combines cash transfers with \r\nproductive assets, inputs or technical training to address the needs \r\nof vulnerable households in emergency situations, and enhance \r\nlivelihoods potential, income generation and food security (FAO, \r\n2017). New economic models have been implemented in north Africa, \r\nfocused on poor households, youth and women that enable access to \r\ncredit and support the implementation of policies that balance cash \r\nand food crops, social safety nets and social protection (Mumtaz and \r\nWhiteford, 2017; Narayanan and Gerber, 2017; see also Sections 9.4; \r\n9.8; 9.11)."


id: 6888f418435b469c68685260499f2966
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15660
content:
"Reducing pathogen concentrations in water and across food chains is \r\nfundamental for controlling diarrhoeal diseases (van den Berg et al., \r\n2019). Diarrhoea prevention and treatment post-disaster, encompass \r\nsocial mobilisation campaigns, water treatment, enhanced surveillance, \r\nand vaccination and treatment centres for cholera (Cambaza et  al., \r\n2019) and typhoid (Neuzil et al., 2019)."


id: bd4a07ce64407413dfd7144c9e8df1cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30550
content:
"Improved WASH requires robust water and sanitation infrastructure \r\n(Duncker, 2017; Kohlitz et  al., 2017; Venema and Temmer, 2017) and \r\ntechnological adaptations (Gabert, 2016; van Wyk et al., 2017), such as \r\nwaterless on-site sanitation (Sutherland et al., 2021), diversification of \r\nwater sources (e.g., rainwater harvesting (Lasage and Verburg, 2015) \r\nand groundwater abstraction (MacDonald et al., 2012)), and sharing of \r\nbest practices across the continent (WASH Alliance International, 2015; \r\nJack et al., 2016; see also Section 9.7.3; Chapter 4 Section 4.6.4). Hand \r\nhygiene can be improved through the creation of handwashing stations, \r\nincreased access to soap and simple technologies such as the foot\u0002operated Tippy taps (Coultas and Iyer, 2020; Mbakaya et al., 2020)."


id: dfda274baf69a028591f5d8d7e7f5176
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36628
content:
"Increasing distribution and coverage of long-lasting insecticide-treated \r\nbed nets, improved diagnostic tests and increasing health service \r\naccess could mitigate the impacts of climate change on malaria if \r\naligned with the predicted or actual burden of malaria (medium \r\nconfidence) (Kienberger and Hagenlocher, 2014; Thwing et al., 2017). \r\nUnderstanding seasonal shifts in malaria transmission suitability as a \r\nresult of climate change can guide more targeted seasonal public health \r\nresponses and better planning for different types of management and \r\ncontrol interventions based on the impact. For example, an increase \r\nin the number of months where climate conditions are suitable for \r\nmosquito survival will require public health responses for an extended \r\nperiod of time (Ryan et al., 2020)."


id: 724687d163be0399591be572d4c69d4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17349
content:
"In malaria-endemic areas, repeated malaria infections can provide \r\ntemporary immunity, which reduces new clinical cases (Laneri et al., \r\n2015; Yamana et  al., 2016). Conversely, where people have little or \r\nno immunity, exposure to malaria can lead to epidemics (Semakula \r\net al., 2017a; Ryan et al., 2020). Pregnant women and infants remain \r\nat risk of severe malaria, regardless of immunity status. Vector control \r\nand case management capacity should be rapidly scaled up in newly \r\naffected areas where risks for epidemics are high and populations are \r\nespecially vulnerable. Poverty-alleviation initiatives underpin malaria \r\ncontrol as the malaria burden is strongly tied to socioeconomic status \r\n(Hulden et al., 2014; Degarege et al., 2019)."


id: d07ba19af9c9484a058f5e0ea6dee6ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34030
content:
"Transformative adaptation requires integration of resilience and \r\nmitigation across all parts of the food system including production, supply \r\nchains, social aspects and dietary choices (IPCC, 2019a). Adaptation to \r\nprevent malnutrition goes hand-in-hand with adaptation to prevent \r\nfood insecurity, as is discussed in Section 9.8.3; Chapter 5 Section 5.12.5."


id: 9c46e69522ce02299740acef4e8039a6
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content:
"Contextualised risk studies on local drivers of transmission are still \r\nlacking and present a major gap in developing appropriate adaptation \r\nstrategies (high confidence). Progress has been made identifying and \r\nranking vulnerability and exposure indicators (Protopopoff et  al., \r\n2009; Onyango et al., 2016a), however, better linking of biophysical \r\nand socioeconomic determinants of risk in integrated assessment \r\nmodels is needed (Caminade et  al., 2019; Zermoglio et  al., 2019), \r\nas are applied approaches to develop adaptation strategies for risk \r\nmanagement (Leedale et al., 2016; Onyango et al., 2016b; Sadoine \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 34f7d1b775c7bd46b6eeb8260cc5c8c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Urban agriculture and forestry can improve nutrition and food \r\nsecurity, household income and mental health of urban farmers \r\nwhile mitigating against some of the impacts of climate change, like \r\nflooding and landslides (by stabilising the soil and reducing runoff, for \r\nexample), heat (by providing shade and through evapotranspiration) \r\nand diversifying food sources in case of drought (Zezza and Tasciotti, \r\n2010; Lwasa et al., 2014; Battersby and Hunter-Adams, 2020)."


id: a82b766e42648a0bd81230b5c2108d2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Figure 9.36 |  Adaptation options across multiple non-health sectors have potential for reducing risk for multiple health outcomes, considering their \r\npotential to reduce vulnerability. Reduced risk for health may result from targeted actions or as a result of co-benefits (see Table SM9.8 for a full list of references)."


id: 26f99990a1e16c1232d0e1274659527b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4019
content:
"Table 9.11 |  Co-benefits, barriers and enablers of adaptation responses to climate change impacts on human health in Africa (see Table SM9.9 for a full list of references)."


id: a9c24f2916ae4c7b16bb78a49530e2ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"had not occurred (Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019), although impacts \r\nvary substantially across countries (see Figure 9.37). As such, global \r\nwarming has increased economic inequality between temperate, \r\nnorthern Hemisphere countries and those in Africa (Diffenbaugh and \r\nBurke, 2019). Warming also leads to differential economic damages \r\nwithin Africa (Baarsch et al., 2020). One estimate found a 1degC increase in \r\n20-year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage \r\npoints, with the greatest impacts in Central African Republic, DRC and \r\nZimbabwe (Abidoye and Odusola, 2015). Changes in rainfall patterns \r\nalso influence individual and national incomes. Had total rainfall not \r\ndeclined between 1960 and 2000, the gap between African GDP and \r\nthat of the rest of the developing world would be 15-40% smaller \r\nthan today, with the largest impacts in countries heavily dependent on \r\nagriculture and hydropower (Barrios et al., 2010)."


id: feba235a178f96eae1be58eb36fa5719
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The health sector needs to collaborate and coordinate adaptation \r\nactivities with other sectors, as well as civil society and international \r\nagencies, to engage communities in health promotion (Irwin et al., \r\n2006; Commission of Social Determinants of Health, 2008; Braveman \r\nand Gottlieb, 2014). The importance of social determinants of \r\nhealth, such as socioeconomic status, education and the physical \r\nenvironment in which people live and work and their consideration \r\nduring development are highlighted in Chapter 7 (see Sections 7.1.6; \r\n7.4.2)"


id: 6426e465b0beaa853b0a1335791d329
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Aggregate macroeconomic impacts manifest through many channels \r\n(Carleton et  al., 2016). Macroeconomic evidence suggests aggregate \r\nimpacts occurred largely through losses in agriculture with a smaller role \r\nfor manufacturing (Barrios et al., 2010; Burke et al., 2015b; Acevedo et al., \r\n2017). Sector-specific analyses confirm that declines in productivity of \r\nfood crops, commodity crops and overall land productivity contribute to \r\nlower macroeconomic performance under rising temperatures (Schlenker \r\nand Lobell, 2010; Bezabih et al., 2011; Jaramillo et al., 2011; Lobell et al., \r\n2011; Adhikari et  al., 2015). Labour supply and productivity declines "


id: 607ad9db43bcbbd1e4ced49668f30e78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14280
content:
"Increased average temperatures and lower rainfall have reduced \r\neconomic output and growth in Africa, with larger negative impacts \r\nthan other regions of the world (Abidoye and Odusola, 2015; Burke \r\net al., 2015a; Acevedo et al., 2017; Kalkuhl and Wenz, 2020). In one \r\nestimate, GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African \r\ncountries than it would be if human-caused global warming since 1991 "


id: 3a368303d0f7b18b554ddb2bcb2532ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7445
content:
"Estimated effect of human-caused climate change on GDP per capita for 48 African countries between 1991 and 2010."


id: 523c90bce21f0732cdcd3582623a7f4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"agricultural drought (Hlalele et al., 2016). Drought and extreme heat \r\nevents have also reduced tourism revenues in Africa (Section  9.6.3). \r\nInfrastructure damage and transport disruptions from adverse climate \r\nevents reduce access to services and growth opportunities (Chinowsky \r\net al., 2014). In global data sets including Africa, tropical cyclones have \r\nbeen shown to have large and long-lasting negative impacts on GDP \r\ngrowth (Hsiang and Jina, 2014)."


id: c87d09dc1ecbfde962e82389958ef1be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"in manufacturing, industry, services and daily wage labour have been \r\nobserved in other regions (Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2014; Somanathan \r\net al., 2015; Day et al., 2019; Nath, 2020) and contribute to aggregate \r\neconomic declines, countering aggregate poverty reduction strategies \r\nand other SDGs (Satterthwaite and Bartlett, 2017; Day et al., 2019). In a \r\ncase study of a rural town in South Africa, over 80% of businesses (both \r\nformal and informal) lost over 50% of employees and revenue due to "


id: ef4701adec6f734cb552003bc4c94a87
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"2015b). Depending on the future socioeconomic scenario, this could \r\nincrease global inequality and leave some African countries poorer \r\nthan at present (Burke et  al., 2015b). Inequalities between African \r\ncountries are projected to widen under climate change, with negative \r\nimpacts estimated to be largest in west and east Africa (Baarsch et al., \r\n2020). While negative impacts across African economies are highly \r\nlikely under climate change, precise magnitudes are debated in the \r\nliterature. Alternative statistical analyses suggest a 12% reduction \r\nof GDP per capita by 2100 under RCP8.5 across African countries \r\nrelative to a future without climate change (Kahn et al., 2021), while \r\ncomputable general equilibrium models generate smaller damages as \r\nwell, ranging from 3.8% reduction across sub-Saharan Africa in 2060 \r\nunder warming of 2.5degC (Dellink et al., 2019) to 12% across all of \r\nAfrica in 2100 under warming of 5degC (SSP4) (Takakura et al., 2019)."


id: 7cc02a5e89ea6cda68b42258ad098921
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Investments in human capital, particularly education, are critical for \r\nsocioeconomic development and poverty reduction providing valuable \r\nskills and expanding labour market opportunities. Much progress has \r\nbeen made in improving education access, however, in sub-Saharan \r\nAfrica, 32% of children, adolescents and youth (~97 million people) \r\nremain out of school (UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2018). Climate \r\nvariability and change can undermine educational attainment with \r\nnegative impacts on later life earning potential and adaptive capacity \r\nto future climate change (Figure 9.11; Lutz et al., 2014)."


id: 57f98b37e99a6ef9c4824baafb6d148
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12739
content:
"Heat stress is projected to reduce working hours and work capacity \r\nunder climate change, with among the largest declines in sub-Saharan \r\nAfrica and for workers in vulnerable occupation groups, such as those \r\nworking outdoors (Kjellstrom et al., 2014; 2016; de Lima et al., 2021; \r\nChapter 5). Global warming of 3degC is projected to reduce labour \r\ncapacity in agriculture by 30-50% in sub-Saharan Africa (relative to \r\nthe baseline in 1986-2005) (de Lima et al., 2021). These effects lead \r\nto substantial aggregate losses, for example, in west Africa, labour \r\nproductivity impacts under a 3degC temperature increase are estimated \r\nto cost up to 8% of GDP (Roson and Sartori, 2016). Manufacturing \r\nproductivity across Africa is projected to decline under RCP8.5 by \r\n0-15% by 2080-2099, with the largest effects in the DRC, Ethiopia, \r\nSomalia, Mozambique and Malawi (Nath, 2020)."


id: 6e1e55ef41ef3ccfc641e8c0bde80fa5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"More research is needed on climate change impacts on education \r\nin Africa. This information can help ensure families keep children in \r\nschool amid climate-related income shocks. For example, in Mexico, a \r\nconditional cash transfer programme mitigated the negative effect of \r\nnatural disasters on school attendance (de Janvry et al., 2006)."


id: a4b02bafea3a71c225440caee0b2bce9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26191
content:
"Large risks to road, rail and water infrastructure are projected from \r\nclimate change with substantial economic cost implications (see \r\nSection 9.9.3; Box 9.5)."


id: 2d893cbe2801bedb1f2ed513ba3c939f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Future warming will have negative consequences for economic \r\ngrowth in Africa, relative to a future without additional climate \r\nchange and assuming current levels of adaptation (high confidence) \r\n(Dell et al., 2012; 2015a; Burke et al., 2015b; Acevedo et al., 2017; \r\nBaarsch et  al., 2020). Statistically based empirical analyses project \r\nthat global warming of 2.3degC by 2050 could lower GDP per capita \r\nacross sub-Saharan Africa by 12% (SSP2) (Baarsch et al., 2020) and \r\n80% for warming >4degC by 2100 (SSP5, 75% for MENA) (Burke et al., "


id: bd79936d44231f36dda4013f23a0ab19
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content:
"Aggregate GDP data capture formal economic activity but informal \r\nemployment is the main source of employment in Africa, accounting \r\nfor 85.8% of all employment (71.9%, excluding agriculture), which \r\nis 21.4% higher than the global average (ILO, 2018b). Estimates of \r\nnational levels of informal employment range from 30% in South "


id: d060c6cf54dfb0941fc339424b80ace4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"3 Extreme poverty is defined using a consumption poverty line at USD 1.25 per day, using 2005 purchasing power parity exchange rates."


id: 9affa991bf556d54f033f69ab66d4e8a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Schumacher, 2019). Nevertheless, climate change impacts on poverty \r\nin Africa will depend on how socioeconomic development unfolds over \r\nthe coming decades (medium confidence) (Rozenberg and Hallegatte, \r\n2015; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; Henseler and Schumacher, \r\n2019). Climate change by 2030 is projected to push 39.7  million \r\nAfricans into extreme poverty3\r\n under a baseline scenario of delayed \r\nand non-inclusive growth, with food prices acting as the dominant \r\nchannel of impact, but this number is cut roughly in half under an \r\ninclusive economic growth scenario (Rozenberg and Hallegatte, 2015; \r\nHallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; Jafino et al., 2020)."


id: c3a425ff5487e4fc55d00c63f33f9f4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Africa, to 94.6% in Burkina Faso (ILO, 2018b), with high variability \r\nwithin countries such as South Africa and Nigeria (Etim and Daramola, \r\n2020). Informal employment is a greater source of employment for \r\nwomen than for men in sub-Saharan Africa and young and old have \r\nespecially high rates of informal employment: 94.9% of persons \r\nbetween ages 15 and 24 in employment and 96% of persons aged 65 \r\nand older (ILO, 2018b)."


id: e707700b2cdcbea2329792f8e056fb1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Informal sector impacts are omitted from GDP-based impacts \r\nprojections. Yet, informal sector activity and small to medium-sized \r\nenterprises can be highly exposed to climate extremes, as they are often \r\nlocated in low-lying areas, coastal areas, sloped or other hazardous \r\nzones (Thorn et al., 2015; Satterthwaite et al., 2020). Businesses and \r\nindividuals in the informal sector, including construction workers, \r\ndomestic workers, street vendors and transport workers, often cannot \r\noperate during climate shocks due to interruptions in transportation \r\nand commodity flows and, without the ability to insure against risk, \r\nstruggle to recover assets from extreme events such as flooding, \r\nlandslides and waterlogging (Chen, 2014; Thorn et al., 2015; Roy et al., \r\n2018a). Women are overrepresented in the more poorly remunerated \r\nsections of the informal economy (Satterthwaite et al., 2020)."


id: 7e2e7a442b04545a856721e4fe964431
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content:
"High temperature-related income losses have been observed in both \r\nlow- and high-income countries, suggesting optimistic economic \r\ndevelopment trajectories may not substantially reduce climate change \r\nimpacts on aggregate economic performance in Africa (low confidence) \r\n(Burke et  al., 2015b; Deryugina and Hsiang, 2017; Henseler and "


id: 881508d756a06e7293217caad3407eff
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"African countries have high inequality: the average within-country \r\nshare of income accruing to the top 10% of households was estimated \r\nat 50% for 2019 (Robilliard, 2020). However, analysis of INDCs across 54 "


id: 8976c84d193c2502f77677274adfd1c8
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"African countries suggests current climate policies do not, on average, \r\ntarget social inequality in energy, water and food security; proposed \r\nmitigation and adaptation actions fell about 23% for every 1% rise \r\nin social inequality across these sectors (Nyiwul, 2021). In contrast, \r\nadaptation actions can be designed in ways that actively work towards \r\nreducing inequality, whether gender, income, employment, education \r\nor otherwise (Andrijevic et al., 2020)."


id: 70c83f6e5d46ffd2317ec6084171f2b7
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vector_id: 17102
content:
"African countries and communities are inadequately insured against \r\nclimate risk. Insurance penetration is less than 2% of GDP (Swis Re, \r\n2019) and 90% of natural catastrophe losses were uninsured in Africa \r\nin 2018 (Swis Re, 2019) leaving a large risk protection gap. The cost of \r\nreinsurance in Africa's most mature insurance market--South Africa--\r\nhas increased since 2017 due to climate-related payouts (SAIA, 2018; \r\nSimpson, 2020), which is expected to further reduce the extent of \r\ninsurance coverage. Emerging trends that seek to address this gap \r\ninclude innovative weather and drought index-based insurance \r\nschemes to transfer risk, forward-looking climate data and models to \r\nmanage risk and insurers transitioning from risk transfer providers to \r\nproactive risk managers."


id: 6b7da97782aeedc33aef92a241359fa1
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In Malawi, wealthier households were able to maintain more diversified \r\nlivelihoods, buffering them from extreme weather-related income \r\nlosses (Sesmero et al., 2018). Poorer households have limited access to \r\nresources such as savings, credit, irrigation technologies and insurance, \r\nwhich can lead to larger crop and other income losses from climate \r\nhazards, preventing investments to improve resilience to future climate "


id: a67619ec62833e626969f873a8be121b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26508
content:
"The most significant area of climate risk insurance innovation has \r\noccurred in weather and drought index-based insurance schemes that \r\npay out fixed amounts based on the occurrence of an event instead \r\nof full indemnification against assessed losses (Table 9.12). However, "


id: 9462cdd26fbe9c055842234bbe819be1
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content:
"The COVID-19 pandemic recovery effort includes significant opportunities \r\nfor African countries to reduce future vulnerability to compound climate, \r\neconomic and health risks. Fiscal recovery packages could set economies \r\non a pathway towards net-zero emissions, reducing future climate risk or \r\nentrench fossil-fuel intensive systems, exacerbating risk (Hepburn et al., \r\n2020; Dibley et al., 2021; IEA, 2021). Investments in renewable energy, \r\nbuilding efficiency retrofits, education and training, natural capital (i.e., \r\necosystem restoration and EbA), R&D, connectivity infrastructure and \r\nsustainable agriculture can help meet both economic recovery and \r\nclimate goals (Hepburn et al., 2020; Dibley et al., 2021)."


id: 5bb37e2693d78ee60d26c3dafda452d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Insurers and their clients are often unaware of their risk exposure, \r\npartly due to data and modelling gaps. Climate information services \r\nand related collaborations are increasingly helping to address this \r\nproblem (see Section  9.4.5). Climate change attribution methods to \r\nestimate the contribution of human-casued climate change to the \r\ncost of parametric insurance offers possibilities for a sharing of the \r\npremium between the impacted African country and a global climate \r\nfund, such as the GCF (New et al., 2020). Technology companies and \r\nstart-ups (including FinTechs) are also emerging as solutions to fill risk \r\ngaps, leveraging new approaches to data and technology through \r\nthe use of sensors, drones and satellite imaging to speak to mainly \r\nagricultural risks, but also urban risks such as informal settlement fires, \r\nexacerbated by heat and drought (Table 9.12)."


id: fad0118885a64318035e9d93be45c1f5
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"Ten African insurers formally committed to help manage climate risk on \r\nthe continent through the Nairobi Declaration of the UNEP Principles \r\nfor Sustainable Insurance (PSI) in 2021 (UNEP PSI, 2021). Some \r\nearly examples of public-private partnerships with municipalities \r\nand governments to better manage climate risk are also emerging \r\n(Table 9.12)."


id: cf37b77313b37ce4aea250e6b031ad94
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33806
content:
"Climatic conditions are important drivers of migration and displacement with migration responses to climate hazards strongly influenced \r\nby economic, social, political and demographic processes (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). "


id: ba697e88c727866af181d309e07b2051
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Most climate-related migration and displacement observed currently is within countries or between neighbouring countries, rather than \r\nto more geographically distant high-income countries (Hoffmann et al., 2020; Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer, 2020). Natural disaster-related \r\ndisplacements in sub-Saharan Africa were over 2.6 million in 2018 and 3.4 million in 2019 (13.9% of the global total and one of the \r\nhighest historical figures for the region), with east (1,437,7000) and west Africa (798,000) being hotspots in 2018 (Table Box 9.8.1; \r\nMastrorillo et al., 2016; IDMC, 2019; IDMC, 2020). Estimates indicate future climate change effects on internal migration in Africa will be \r\nconsiderable (Table Box 9.8.1;Rigaud et al., 2018)."


id: 4b0a802f55d0d4dd8491204d63e1cd8f
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content:
"Climate change can have opposing influences on migration flows. Deteriorating economic conditions caused by climate hazards can \r\nencourage out-migration (Wiederkehr et al., 2018). However, these same economic losses undermine household resources needed to \r\nmigrate (Cattaneo and Peri, 2016). The net effect of these two forces leads to mixed results across study methodologies and contexts \r\n(Carleton and Hsiang, 2016; Borderon et al., 2019; Cattaneo et al., 2019; Hoffmann et al., 2020)."


id: f5c9834163dd55b549bb58f295769774
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content:
"Migration is an important and potentially effective climate change adaptation strategy in Africa and must be considered in adaptation \r\nplanning (high confidence) (Williams et al., 2021). The more agency migrants have (that is, degree of voluntarity and freedom of movement), \r\nthe greater the potential benefits for sending and receiving areas (high agreement, medium evidence) (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in \r\nChapter 7). In a synthesis of 63 studies covering over 9700 rural households in dryland sub-Saharan Africa, 23% of households employed \r\nmigration (primarily temporary economic) to adapt to changes in rainfed agriculture (Wiederkehr et al., 2018). Migration responses \r\nto climate change tend to be stronger among wealthier households, as poorer households often lack financial resources necessary to \r\nmigrate (Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer, 2020)."


id: 854db715c66e279ad8bfab4941ffdd4d
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content:
"International remittances are a vital resource for developing countries that can help aid recovery from climate shocks (Hallegatte et al. \r\n2016). Estimated at USD 48 billion in 2019 their importance is expected to grow further due to foreign direct investment declines during \r\nthe COVID-19 pandemic (World Bank, 2020a). Furthermore, domestic remittances from rural-urban migration can help rural households \r\nrespond to climate risks (KNOMAD, 2016). However, adequate finance and banking infrastructure are essential for remittances and, on \r\naverage, cash transfer costs for sub-Saharan African countries remain the highest globally (World Bank, 2020a). Mobile money technologies "


id: d8833ad71beb4983d395b30836cb9ac7
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content:
"and regulation that promotes competition in the remittances market can reduce transaction costs (World Bank, 2020a). Governments can \r\nfurther address challenges facing internal and international migrants by including them in health services and other social programmes \r\nand protecting them from discrimination (World Bank, 2020a)."


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content:
"Table Box 9.8.1 |  Reported impacts of climate on migration in Africa. (Findings on the linkages between climatic conditions and migration vary greatly across countries \r\nin Africa.)"


id: c8570069da3c4d1e9730d8d90974b5a
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"no-cost access to essential medicine, high-quality preventative care, \r\nfinancial protections against medical debt and increased geographic \r\nand population coverage for all services (Hallegatte et al., 2016). All of \r\nthese are key components of climate change adaptation for health and \r\nwill reduce both the rate at which future outbreaks start and their total \r\nscope and impact (Carlson et al., 2021). The co-benefits of multilateral \r\ncooperation on the attainment of universal health coverage will be a \r\nkey determinant of success or failure in both climate change adaptation \r\nand pandemic preparedness."


id: 9c6db55806b3b24ad5c76b764f37102
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content:
"For more than 10,000 years, Africans recorded over 8000 painted and \r\nengraved images on rock shelters and rock outcroppings across 800 \r\nknown exceptional rock art sites of incalculable value (Hall et al., 2007; \r\ndi Lernia and Gallinaro, 2011; di Lernia, 2017; Clarke and Brooks, 2018; \r\nBarnett, 2019), but which are exceptionally fragile to the elements. \r\nUnfortunately, there has been a poor study of direct climate change \r\nimpacts on rock art across Africa."


id: 7e94cf48cd229baf4db5efcae671079e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Underwater heritage includes shipwrecks and artefacts lost at sea \r\nand extends to prehistoric sites, sunken towns and ancient ports that \r\nare now submerged due to climatic or geological changes (Spalding, \r\n2011). Off the shores of Africa, about 111 shipwrecks have been \r\ndocumented, with South Africa having a major share of about 41 \r\nsites. The sunken Egyptian city of Thonis-Heracleion and its associated \r\n60+ shipwrecks reflect the richness of Africa's waters. Unfortunately, \r\nincreased storm surges and violent weather currently threaten the \r\nintegrity of shipwrecks by accelerating the destruction of wooden \r\nparts and other features (Harkin et al., 2020). However, climate change \r\nimpacts on underwater cultural heritage sites are poorly studied, as \r\nit requires specialist assessment techniques (Feary et al., 2016), and \r\nmarine archaeology studies are not well established in Africa."


id: a2a6d957480dd55a0d9f98926ce10745
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"Africa is a rich reservoir of heritage resources and Indigenous \r\nKnowledge, showcased by about 96 sites inscribed by the United \r\nNations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) \r\nas World Heritage Sites (UNESCO, 2018b). These include 53 sites \r\nspecifically denoted as having great cultural importance and five sites \r\nwith mixed heritage values. Unfortunately, valuable cultural heritage \r\nin forms of tangible evidence of past human endeavour, and the \r\nintangible heritage encapsulated by diverse cultural practices of many \r\ncommunities (Feary et al., 2016), is under great threat from climate \r\nchange."


id: 592f61077a5a7d862215569011bf3524
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"There is substantial evidence that climate variability influences human security across Africa (see Chapter 7 Sections 7.2.7; 7.3.3 7). \r\nHowever, the strength and nature of this link depend on socioeconomic and institutional conditions, and climate is just one of many \r\nfactors influencing violence and civil conflict (Schleussner et al., 2016a; von Uexkull et al., 2016; Linke et al., 2018; Mach et al., 2019; van \r\nWeezel, 2019; Ide et al., 2020)."


id: fecaa623129fba50a30ad64dfda46ed9
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"Projections of security implications of long-run climate change in Africa are uncertain, as they rely on extrapolating observed effects of \r\nshort-run climate variability (Burke et al., 2014). Lack of detection and attribution studies limit assessment of the impacts of observed \r\nhuman-caused climate change on security."


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"Evidence from across the globe finds that interpersonal violence, ranging from use of profanity to violent crime, increases with temperature \r\nand sometimes low rainfall (Hsiang et al., 2013a; Burke et al., 2014; Gates et al., 2019). The effect of temperature may be driven by a \r\nphysiological mechanism (Morrison et al., 2008; Seo et al., 2008; Ray et al., 2011), while effects of rainfall may operate through an \r\nagricultural yield impacts channel (Burke et al., 2014). While few studies link interpersonal violence to climate in Africa, Gates et al. \r\n(2019) documents homicide risks increasing under high temperatures in South Africa, and similarity across diverse study settings suggests \r\ntemperature-induced violent crime likely generalises to Africa (Burke et al., 2014)."


id: 5a1b3a50eb0b4407989bf2091a57b8e7
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"Climatic conditions also change the risk of large-scale conflicts such as riots, ethnic conflicts and civil war (Burke et al., 2014; Koubi, 2019). \r\nThe effects of temperature are particularly well-studied in Africa. Risk of violent conflict rises with temperature in Sudan and South Sudan \r\n(Maystadt and Ecker, 2014; Maystadt et al., 2014; Scheffran et al., 2014), Kenya (Hsiang et al., 2013b; Scheffran et al., 2014), the east \r\nAfrican region (O'Loughlin et al., 2012) and across sub-Saharan Africa (Burke et al., 2009; O'Loughlin et al., 2014; Witmer et al., 2017). \r\nEstimates indicate that warming trends since 1980 have elevated conflict risk across sub-Saharan Africa by 11% (Burke et al., 2009; \r\nCarleton et al., 2016)."


id: dd60b32839bd547d4448f8e54ec3b25e
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"While conflict-climate links have been repeatedly identified in Africa, climate is one of many interacting conflict risk factors and appears \r\nto explain only a small share of total variation in conflict incidence (von Uexkull et al., 2016; Mach et al., 2019; van Weezel, 2019)."


id: 95166369c68d37bc8d21b4565a4a329a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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"Adaptive capacity with respect to climate and conflict remains low in Africa (Sitati et al., 2021). For example, one study found that, \r\nrelative to each country's optimal annual temperature, realised temperatures across sub-Saharan Africa increase the annual incidence \r\nof war by 29.3% on average (Carleton et al., 2016). Another finds that rising temperatures due to climate change may lead to higher \r\nlevels of violence in sub-Saharan Africa if political rights do not improve from current conditions (Witmer et al., 2017). Available studies \r\non adaptation in conflict-affected areas tend to have a narrow focus, particularly on agriculture-related adaptation in rural contexts and \r\nadaptation by low-income actors, with little known beyond these contexts (Sitati et al., 2021). Literature on the gender dimension of \r\nclimate adaptation in conflict-affected countries is also limited (Sitati et al., 2021)."


id: 1596a0d97f98c8b61f84d23db55db337
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content:
"Migration is a common response (Sitati et al., 2021) and may be an effective adaptive response to climate-induced conflict. Bosetti et al. \r\n(2018) find that countries with high emigration propensity display lower sensitivity of conflict to temperature, with no evidence of \r\ndetrimental impacts on the destination countries. IK has also been applied to enable adaptation amidst conflict, for example, in Libya, to \r\ndeal with erratic rainfall (Biagetti, 2017)."


id: e989f344b1465f436b78cd8dbf861802
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content:
"Other socioeconomic factors have been identified as adaptive opportunities. Rising incomes may mitigate conflict-climate relationships \r\n(Carleton et al., 2016), while weak institutions, lack of political freedom, agricultural dependence and exclusion of ethnic groups increase \r\ntheir strength (Schleussner et al., 2016a; von Uexkull et al., 2016; Witmer et al., 2017; Ide et al., 2020). In particular, agriculturally dependent \r\nand politically excluded groups in Africa are especially vulnerable to the impact of drought on conflict (von Uexkull et al., 2016; Koubi, \r\n2019). Household-level resilience to economic shocks has been shown to lower support for violence after drought (von Uexkull et al., 2020). \r\nLocal-level institutions have also been shown to support non-violence under adverse climate conditions (Bogale and Korf, 2007)."


id: cc2fdcd80de78bcfc963e947fb8e6aa4
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"These findings suggest that ameliorating ethnic tensions, improving political institutions and investing in economic diversification and \r\nhousehold resilience could mitigate future impacts of climate change on conflict."


id: c8a2e94cccdc186431bc57e24185779a
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"and changing climate that exacerbates decay (Brimblecombe et  al., \r\n2011; Bosman and Van der Westhuizen, 2014; Brooks et al., 2020)."


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"Intangible heritage includes instruments, objects, artefacts and cultural \r\nspaces associated with communities, and are almost always held orally \r\n(UNESCO, 2003). Loss of heritage assets may be a direct consequence \r\nof climate change/variability (Markham et al., 2016), or a consequence \r\nof indirect factors resulting from climate change, for example, economic \r\ninstability and poor decision making in areas of governance. In northern \r\nNigeria, climate change exacerbates the impact of poor land use \r\ndecisions, reducing the flow of the Yobe River and negatively impacting \r\nthe Bade fishing festival because the available fish species continue \r\nto decline (Oruonye, 2010). Similarly, Lake Sanke in Mali has been \r\ndegraded by a combination of urban development and poor rainfall, \r\nthreatening the Sanke mon collective fishing rite (UNESCO, 2018b)."


id: ee392188a8774eb180ca4d9c9950c235
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Migration related to climate change and climatic events could offer \r\nopenings to women and young people to become de facto family \r\nheads (Kaag et al., 2019). However, such societal changes also increase \r\ncommunity vulnerability to the loss of cultural knowledge held by village \r\nelders. For example, in Mauritius, the Sega tambour Chagos music is at \r\nrisk, as elders familiar with the landscape pass on (Boswell, 2008)."


id: 70323399ed3950e3b3b0ad4e2499cab2
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"Although climate change is a significant risk to heritage sites (Brito \r\nand Naia, 2020), there is little research on how heritage management \r\nis adapting to climate change, and particularly, whether the capacity \r\nof current heritage management systems can prepare for and deal with \r\nconsequences of climate change (Phillips, 2015; see also Cross-Chapter \r\nBox SLR in Chapter 3)."


id: cfe3ed851de0e818fc7afc9a4e92949
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"Risk to Africa's cultural and natural coastal heritage sites from sea level rise and erosion by 2100 (RCP8.5)\r\n(a) Cultural sites exposed to sea level rise and erosion (b) 15 natural sites of conservation priority exposed to sea level rise"


id: f32f17eb177317c7111c7523bdc49d6b
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"Figure 9.38 |  Risk to Africa's cultural and natural coastal heritage sites from see level rise (SLR) and erosion by 2100."


id: 251b3f58872c7b87e7e11e8b9711c488
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"(a) World Heritage Sites projected to be exposed to flooding from SLR under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) by 2100 (Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Reimann et al., 2018). \r\nFor north Africa, multiple sites are already identified to be at medium or high risk from erosion under both current and future SLR conditions (Reimann et al., 2018). At the time of \r\nassessment erosion risk had not been assessed for other African regions \r\n(b) The 15 African natural sites (coastal protected areas) projected to be most exposed to negative impacts from SLR and thus as priority sites for adaptation (Brito and Naia, 2020)."


id: f7008ebdeb247224eadf884be8084c6c
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"including conflict, terrorism, poverty, invasive species, competition \r\nfor natural resources and pollution (Markham et  al., 2016). These \r\nissues may affect a broad range of tourism segments, including beach \r\nvacation sites, safari tourism, cultural tourism and visits to historic \r\ncities (UNWTO, 2008). Climate change impacts have the potential to \r\nincrease tourist safety concerns, especially at sites where increased \r\nintensity of extreme weather events or vulnerability to floods and \r\nlandslides are projected (Markham et al., 2016) (see also Cross-Chapter \r\nBox EXTREMES in Chapter 2). There may also be circumstances where \r\ninterventions required to preserve and protect the resource alter its \r\ncultural significance (van Wyk, 2017)."


id: 6f6e5836d093bcc356b1ae670865752b
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"Research highlights potential in integrating Indigenous Knowledge, \r\nland use practices, scientific knowledge and heritage values to co\u0002produce tools that refine our understanding of climate change and \r\nvariability and develop comprehensive heritage adaptation policy \r\n(Table 9.13; Ekblom et al., 2019)."


id: a6f7db465a2d4c035c66391755b90b29
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"Conservation of heritage may require offsetting the impact of loss \r\nthrough partial or total excavation under certain circumstances, like \r\nenvironment instability, or where in situ heritage preservation is \r\nexorbitant in cost (Maarleveld and Guerin, 2013)."


id: c440f1bcc82018f5ba14cd91d772432b
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"Although many underwater shipwrecks and ruins of cities are currently \r\npreserved better in situ than similar sites on land (Feary et al., 2016), \r\npreserving such heritage is often financially prohibitive with many \r\nphysical and technical challenges. Further, skill capacities of heritage \r\nagencies are limited to a few qualified archaeologists in Africa \r\n(Maarleveld and Guerin, 2013)."


id: 1f098ffbf2b775303a46e4be3f0abcf9
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"experiences into memories that can be 'translated' into diverse adaptive \r\npractices (Oba, 2014). In coastal Kenya, Mijikenda communities rely \r\non Indigenous Knowledge and practices used in the management of \r\nthe sacred Kaya Forests to adapt their farming to a changing climate \r\n(Wekesa et al., 2015)."


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content:
"Hence, preservation measures for transforming oral information into \r\nwritten records should ensure viability of intangible cultural heritage by \r\ngiving due consideration to the confidentiality of culturally sensitive \r\ninformation and intellectual property rights (Feary et al., 2016)."


id: e5b2aa9ccd33e4b1e9c4e583382eddfb
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"For centuries, Africans have drawn on intangible heritage to enhance \r\ntheir resilience to climatic variability and support adaptation practices. \r\nFor example, pastoralist communities have historically translated their "


id: dfddc4f00a4cea9b81fd5c42f29cf20
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"grounds and places of pilgrimage negate local participation in cultural \r\nsite management (Ndoro, 2015)."


id: 4b11c9ad156b0c1c04f453d5bc21cd77
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"Inclusion of cultural landscapes and intangible heritage in the landscape \r\napproach at the regional scale development planning processes may \r\nhave significant impacts on protected area management (Feary et al., \r\n2016). For example, at the Domboshava rock art site in Zimbabwe, all \r\nmanagement decisions are taken in direct consultation with traditional \r\nleaders and other stakeholders from surrounding communities (Chirikure \r\net al., 2010). Such adaptation strategies promote a more open-minded \r\napproach to heritage by leveraging local development (UNESCO, 2018b)."


id: a58fe596018d37aee92cc5fba2428e24
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"In the long term, heritage managers and local authorities could shift \r\nfrom planning primarily for disaster response and recovery to strategies \r\nthat focus on disaster preparedness, reducing the vulnerability of \r\nsites and strengthening resilience of local communities (UNFCCC, \r\n2007; Domke and Pretzsch, 2016). This could evolve into innovative \r\napproaches that integrate community, government and the research \r\nsector in productive cultural heritage management partnerships."


id: 9ce2ee8b75dc8b0c5170f043aa44126
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"Lack of expertise and resources, together with legislation that privileges \r\ncertain typologies of heritage, seem to limit implementation of approved \r\npolicies (Ndoro, 2015). Additionally, cultural heritage has least priority \r\nin terms of budgetary allocation, capacity building and inclusion into \r\nschool curricula. Failure to consider the views of people who attach \r\nspiritual significance to places is detrimental to the conservation of \r\nheritage places (Bwasiri, 2011). In particular, documented cases of local \r\npeople having to pay an entrance fee, like tourists, to access burial "


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"There is a need for institutions to establish, maintain and update a \r\ncomprehensive inventory of underwater cultural heritage. This can be \r\ndone using non-intrusive, detailed mapping of the wreck site and a \r\nthree-dimensional model from which scientists can reconstruct the site \r\nin detail (Maarleveld and Guerin, 2013)."


id: 666e488d9d47e80034d1704d2e94e96
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"Climate extremes, particularly extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall events, impact the livelihoods, health, and well-being of millions of \r\nAfricans. They will also continue to impact African economies, limiting adaptation capacity. Interventions based on resilient infrastructure and \r\ntechnologies can achieve numerous developmental and adaptation co-benefits."


id: 3ab3d0027a11091e15adfe87238ead78
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"Increases in the number of hot days and nights, as well as in heatwave intensity and duration, have had negative \r\nimpacts on agriculture, human health, water availability, energy demand and livelihoods. By some estimates, African \r\ncountries' Gross Domestic Product per capita is on average 13.6% lower since 1991 than if human-caused global warm\u0002ing had not occurred. In the future, high temperatures combined with high humidity exceed the threshold for human \r\nand livestock tolerance over larger parts of Africa and with greater frequency. Increased average temperatures and \r\nlower rainfall will further reduce economic output and growth in Africa, with larger negative impacts than on other \r\nregions of the world."


id: 48ad2634e375fb9fd03c59ca220c19dd
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"Resilient infrastructure and technologies are required to cope with the increasing climate variability and change \r\n(Figure FAQ9.1.1). These include improving housing to limit heat and exposure, along with improving water and \r\nsanitation infrastructure. Such interventions to ensure that the most vulnerable are properly protected from climate \r\nchange have many co-benefits, including for pandemic recovery and prevention."


id: 8e30e4b6b5fc04dda81c3a987189b685
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"The capacity for African ecosystems to adapt to changing environmental conditions is limited by a range of factors, from heat tolerance to \r\nland availability. Adaptation across human settlements and food systems are further constrained by insufficient planning and affordability. \r\nIntegrated development planning and increasing finance flows can improve African climate change adaptation."


id: 2d54290ae8bbef9e6e97461100520b44
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"The limits to adaptation for human settlements arise largely from developmental challenges associated with \r\nAfrica's rapid urbanisation, poor development planning, and increasing numbers of urban poor residing in informal \r\nsettlements. Further limits arise from insufficient consideration of climate change in adaptation planning and \r\ninfrastructure investment and insufficient financial resources. There are also limits to adaptation for food production \r\nstrategies. Increasing climate extreme events--droughts and floods--impose specific adaptation responses which \r\npoorer households cannot afford. For instance, the use of early maturing or drought-tolerant crop varieties may \r\nincrease resilience, but adoption by smallholder farmers is hindered by the unavailability or unaffordability of seed."


id: 52db68e0cdd802a1920ff90266c7dce3
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"Adaptation in Africa can reduce risks at current levels of global warming. However, there is very limited evidence \r\nfor the effectiveness of current adaptation at increased global warming levels. Ambitious, near-term mitigation \r\nwould yield the largest single contribution to successful adaptation in Africa."


id: f785e0d9489e61484c1618aaac72754a
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"Current adaptation finance flows are billions of USD less than the needs of African countries and around half \r\nof finance commitments to Africa reported by developed countries remain undisbursed. Increasing adaptation \r\nfinance flows by billions of dollars (including public and private sources), removing barriers to accessing finance and \r\nproviding targeted country support can improve climate change adaptation across Africa."


id: f01e1565fb9f18bba23f5b0985e05395
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"FAQ 9.3 | How can African countries secure enough food in changing climate conditions for their growing \r\npopulations?"


id: a89902be1e47cd94bcb9d0aee34a0290
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"Climate change is already impacting African food systems and will worsen food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa in the future. An integrated \r\napproach to adaptation planning can serve as a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing African food security challenges."


id: 2f6eead199e63919e5a6c12eb8f070d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5609
content:
"Maize and wheat yields have decreased an average of 5.8% and 2.3%, respectively, in sub-Saharan Africa due to \r\nclimate change. Among the 135 million acutely food-insecure people in crisis globally, more than half (73 million) \r\nare in Africa. This is partly due to the growing severity of drought with increasing temperatures also a severe risk \r\nfactor. Adding to these challenges, Africa has the fastest-growing population in the world that is projected to grow \r\nto around 40% of the world's population by 2100."


id: 568f51bcba64c99334f6678b9deab62d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12483
content:
"Sustainable agricultural development combined with enabling institutional conditions, such as supportive governance \r\nsystems and policy, can provide farmers with greater yield stability in uncertain climate conditions. It is also widely \r\nacknowledged that an integrated approach for adaptation planning that combines (a) climate information services, \r\n(b) capacity building, (c) Indigenous and local knowledge systems and (d) strategic financial investment can serve as \r\na flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing African food security challenges."


id: da41f0e09dcdc07d4ff11d0b74afaa99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35701
content:
"A strong relationship between scientific knowledge and local knowledge is desirable, especially in developing contexts where technology for \r\nprediction and modelling is least accessible."


id: 224ad0d652a67a87728669f1564d076
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3252
content:
"In many African settings, farmers use the local knowledge gained over time--through experience and passed on \r\norally from generation to generation--to cope with climate challenges. Indigenous Knowledge systems of weather \r\nand climate patterns include early warning systems, agroecological farming systems and observation of natural \r\nor non-natural climate indicators. For instance, biodiversity and crop diversification are used as a buffer against \r\nenvironmental challenges: if one crop fails, another could survive. Local knowledge of seasons, storms and wind \r\npatterns is used to guide and plan farming and other activities."


id: 360f79e86f87670ef969e3dd6a32b4aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6761
content:
"Collaborative partnerships between research, agricultural extension services and local communities would create \r\nnew avenues for the co-production of knowledge in climate change adaptation to better inform adaptation policies \r\nand practices across Africa."


id: 3a942d20a939169432b5de4751495640
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7511
content:
"Government of Madagascar, 2015: Law no. 2015-031 on the National Policy of \r\nRisk Management and Catastrophes, Madagascar."


id: 59f9c443a37136b88f62193f010143ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13075
content:
"Golden, C. D. et al., 2016: Nutrition: Fall in fish catch threatens human health. \r\nNature, 534(7607), 317-320, doi:10.1038/534317a.\r\nGolden, C. D. et al., 2021: Aquatic foods to nourish nations. Nature, 598(7880), \r\n315-320, doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03917-1."


id: 607e84b2a597d1d47062174c807aa89c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14282
content:
"Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological \r\nstudy on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and \r\nlowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, \r\n7(1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9."


id: 7514e4b6e981f9ee6306aca775f79979
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17836
content:
"Government of Morocco, 2014: Framework Law 99-12 on the National Charter \r\nfor the Environment and Sustainable Development, Morocco."


id: 420108534d896aac0dca96efc981b133
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8809
content:
"Government of Mozambique, 2014: Law No. 15/2014 establishing the legal \r\nframework for disaster management, Mozambique."


id: f1d77a5acfced0085a19343772d4177
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39934
content:
"Government of the Seychelles, 2015: Conservation and Climate Adaptation \r\nTrust of Seychelles Act 18 of 2015, Seychelles."


id: bab3376d99ecd273ab3c3d9976fac5ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30066
content:
"Government of Liberia, 2002: Environmental Protection and Management Law \r\nof the Republic of Liberia, Liberia."


id: ad02c2a05511b4b2ef674de8009f65c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27677
content:
"developments for the livestock, fishery and crop production sectors. \r\nAgriculture & Food Security, 5(1), 26, doi:10.1186/s40066-016-0075-3."


id: 7bda6872746ff42e9255dfaee486c6c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19001
content:
"Zougmore, R. et  al., 2016: Toward climate-smart agriculture in West Africa: \r\na review of climate change impacts, adaptation strategies and policy "


id: 8a75d17c9a71c2fee69dcaa5ee1cdfef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21530
content:
"Lead Authors: Sharina Abdul Halim (Malaysia), Sanjay Chaturvedi (India), Masahiro Hashizume \r\n(Japan), Gregory E. Insarov (Russian Federation), Yoichi Ishikawa (Japan), Mostafa Jafari (Iran), \r\nAkio Kitoh (Japan), Juan Pulhin (Philippines), Chandni Singh (India), Kripa Vasant (India), Zhibin \r\nZhang (China)"


id: 522d71461bea57fde0605c609730bf92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11729
content:
"Contributing Authors: Rawshan Ara Begum (Bangladesh), Xi Chen (China), Rajarshi Dasgupta \r\n(India), Ronald C. Estoque (Philippines), Wanqin Guo (China), Garima Jain (India), Brian Johnson \r\n(USA), Tarek Katramiz (Syria), Pankaj Kumar (India), Xianbing Liu (China), Mythili Madhavan \r\n(India), Bijon Kumer Mitra (Bangladesh), Farah Mulyasari (Indonesia), Santosh Nepal (Nepal), \r\nRekha Nianthi (Sri Lanka), Fereidoon Owfi (Iran), Gulsan Ara Parvin (Bangladesh), Shobha Poudel \r\n(Nepal), Atta-ur Rahman (Pakistan), Mihoko Sakurai (Japan), Amin Shaban (Lebanon), Dmitry \r\nStreletskiy (Russian Federation), Vibhas Sukhwani (India), Prabhakar S.V.R.K (India), Ai Tashiro \r\n(Japan), Tong Thi My Thi (Vietnam), Noralene Uy (Philippines), Xinru Wan (China), Cunde Xiao \r\n(China)"


id: 9ec96b189cdf23b839a8904fef423b11
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25157
content:
"Shaw, R., Y. Luo, T.S. Cheong, S. Abdul Halim, S. Chaturvedi, M. Hashizume, G.E. Insarov, Y. Ishikawa, M. Jafari, A. Kitoh, \r\nJ. Pulhin, C. Singh, K. Vasant, and Z. Zhang, 2022: Asia. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. \r\nContribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change \r\n[H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Loschke, \r\nV. Moller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1457-1579, \r\ndoi:10.1017/9781009325844.012."


id: 471bb781054fa1488c46842007a4df0f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9710
content:
"Coastal habitats of Asia are diverse, and the impacts of climate \r\nchange including rising temperatures, ocean acidification and sea \r\nlevel rise (SLR) has brought negative effects to the services and \r\nthe livelihoods of people depending on it (high confidence). The \r\ndegree of bleaching of coral reefs is diverse among different presences \r\nof stress-tolerant symbionts and higher thermal thresholds. The risk \r\nof irreversible loss of coral reefs, tidal marshes, seagrass meadows, \r\nplankton community and other marine and coastal ecosystems increases \r\nwith global warming, especially at 2degC temperature rise or more (high \r\nconfidence). Mangroves in the region continue to face threats due to \r\npollution, conversion for aquaculture, agriculture and climate-based \r\nthreats like SLR and coastal erosion. {10.4.3}"


id: 4fbf089b2085324a2066e5fd821d6e4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11322
content:
"Observed surface air temperature has been increasing since the \r\n20th century all over Asia (high confidence1\r\n). Significant warming \r\nhas intensified the threat to social and economic sustainability \r\n(medium confidence). Rising temperatures increase the likelihood of \r\nthe threat of heatwaves across Asia, droughts in arid and semiarid \r\nareas of West, Central and South Asia, delays and weakening of the \r\nmonsoon circulation in South Asia, floods in monsoon regions in \r\nSouth, Southeast and East Asia, and glacier melting in the Hindu Kush \r\nHimalaya region (medium confidence). {10.3.1, 10.3.3}"


id: 15e42c9dce9bfc17699f32442e519109
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1070
content:
"Asian countries are experiencing a hotter summer climate, \r\nresulting in an increase in energy demand for cooling at a rapid \r\nrate, together with the population growth (high confidence). \r\nDecrease in precipitation influences energy demand as well as \r\ndesalination, underground water pumping and other energy\u0002intensive methods are increasingly used for water supply (high \r\nconfidence). More energy demands in summer seasons will exceed \r\nany energy savings from relatively lower heating demand due to \r\nwarmer winter. Among 13 developing countries with large energy \r\nconsumption in Asia, 11 are exposed to high-energy insecurity and \r\nindustrial-systems risk (high confidence). {10.4.1}"


id: b0953570bde1ed908dfb63696d5691d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28298
content:
"Both climatic and non-climatic drivers such as socio-economic \r\nchanges have created water stress conditions in both water \r\nsupply and demand in all sub-regions of Asia, except for North \r\nAsia (medium confidence). These changes in space and time directly \r\nor indirectly have affected water-use sectors and services. By mid\u000221st Century, the international transboundary river basins of Amu \r\nDarya, Indus, Ganges could face severe water scarcity challenges due \r\nto climatic variability and changes acting as stress multipliers (high \r\nconfidence). Due to global warming, Asian countries could experience \r\nan increase in drought conditions (5-20%) by the end of this century\r\n(high confidence). {10.4.4}"


id: aa3b2adea95ae2ddd73cb7e329ec64f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27181
content:
"The Asian glaciers were in minor-area shrinkage and mass loss \r\nduring 2006-2016, resulting in the instability of water resource \r\nsupply (high confidence). Glaciers in Asia are the water resources \r\nof about 220 million people in the downstream areas. The glacier melt \r\nwater in the southern Tibetan Plateau increased during 1998-2007, \r\nand will further increase till 2050. The total amount and area of glacier \r\nlakes have increased during the past decade (high confidence). More \r\nglacier collapses and surges were found in western Tibetan Plateau.\r\nGlacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) will threaten the securities of the \r\nlocal and downstream communities (high confidence). Snowmelt \r\nwater contributed 19% of the increase change in runoff of arid regions' \r\nrivers in Xinjiang, China, and 10.6% of the upper Brahmaputra River \r\nduring 2003-2014 (medium confidence). {10.4.4, Box 10.4}"


id: 9676e61f6a1a2cfabd6d63072d39813c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23673
content:
"Since IPCC AR5, more studies have reinforced the earlier findings \r\non the spatio-temporal diversity of climate-change impacts \r\non food production in Asia depending on the geographic \r\nlocation, agroecology and crops grown, recognising that there \r\nare winners and losers associated with the changing climate \r\nacross scales (high confidence). Most of these impacts have been \r\nassociated with drought, monsoon rain and oceanic oscillations, the \r\nfrequency and severity of which have been linked with the changing \r\nclimate. Climate-related risks to agriculture and food systems in \r\nAsia will progressively escalate with the changing climate, with \r\ndifferentiated impacts across the region (medium confidence). Major \r\nprojected impacts of climate change in the agriculture and food sectors \r\ninclude decline in fisheries, aquaculture, crop production (particularly \r\nin South and Southeast Asia), reduction in livestock production in "


id: 35e764ec7faff86a8a19dafcec5c57b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6727
content:
"report implemented adaptation interventions) (medium confidence). The \r\ndegree of implementation of urban adaptation is uneven with large cities \r\nreceiving more funding and priority, and smaller cities and towns, and \r\nperi-urban spaces, seeing relatively lower adaptation action (medium \r\nconfidence). {10.4.6}"


id: 5ac324cdc5747147c02a2644ee7da4d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13221
content:
"Increased climate variability and extreme events are already \r\ndriving migration (robust evidence, medium agreement) and \r\nprojecting that longer-term climate change will increase \r\nmigration flows across Asia (medium confidence). One in three \r\nmigrants comes from Asia, and the highest ratio of outward migrants \r\nis seen from hazard-exposed Pacific countries. In 2019, Bangladesh, \r\nChina, India and the Philippines each recorded more than 4  million \r\ndisaster displacements. In Southeast Asia and East Asia, cyclones, \r\nfloods and typhoons triggered internal displacement of 9.6  million \r\npeople, almost 30% of total global displacements in 2019. {Box 10.2}"


id: 9cc99f6eac813fdbd8d94478020d3f26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24821
content:
"There is a small but growing literature highlighting the impor\u0002tance of behavioural aspects of adaptation in Asia (high con\u0002fidence), but this is restricted primarily to agriculture and dis\u0002aster risk reduction (DRR). Factors motivating adaptation actions \r\ninclude risk perception, perceived self-efficacy, sociocultural norms \r\nand beliefs, previous experiences of impacts, levels of education and \r\nawareness (high confidence). There is growing evidence on behaviou\u0002ral aspects of individual adaptation but lesser evidence on the socio\u0002cognitive factors motivating governments and private-sector actors to \r\nadapt. {10.5.3}"


id: 75c040a1cfeefb494d89cb0ffcae7ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17947
content:
"Climate change is already causing economic loss and damage \r\nacross Asian regions, and this will increase under higher \r\nwarming (medium confidence). Non-material losses and damages \r\nare reported to a lesser degree, but this is due to under-reporting and \r\nmethodological issues with detection and attribution to climate change \r\n(high confidence). Loss and damage represents a key knowledge \r\ngap, especially in West, Central and North Asia. Insufficient literature \r\ndifferentiating loss and damage under future adaptation scenarios "


id: df25b080afc3c8f52875ec6bb7b41cb9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36511
content:
"renders a comprehensive assessment of residual damages, along with \r\nfuture loss and damage, difficult. {Box 10.6}"


id: cb41188d421d1d113a75d36b8757323c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33094
content:
"Asia is defined here as the land and territories of 51 countries/regions \r\n(Figure 10.1). It can be broadly divided into six sub-regions based on \r\ngeographic position and coastal peripheries (IPCC, 2014b). These are, \r\nin alphabetical order, Central Asia (5 countries), East Asia (7 countries/\r\nregions), North Asia (2 countries), South Asia (8 countries), Southeast \r\nAsia (12 countries) and West Asia (17 countries). The population of \r\nAsia was reported to be over 4.46 billion in 2016, which is about 60% \r\nof the world's population with an estimated density of 100 people \r\nper square kilometre (UNDESA, 2017). The highest life expectancy at \r\nbirth is 84  years (Japan) and the lowest is 52  years (Afghanistan) \r\n(CIA, 2017). The gross domestic product (GDP) per capita ranged from \r\nUS$587 (Afghanistan) to US$81,585 (Macao, SAR, PRC) (IMF, 2018)."


id: 30d611c8adac8c8385b6b0146b208da1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5848
content:
"Drawing upon a greater number of studies made possible by greater \r\nuse of advanced research tools, such as remote sensing as well as \r\nmeticulous modelling of impacts, the Fifth Assessment Report could \r\nsignificantly expand its coverage of pertinent issues (IPCC, 2014c). \r\nFor example, the discussion on the Himalayas was expanded to \r\ncover observed and projected impacts of climate change on tourism \r\n(WGII AR5 Section 10.6.2); livelihood assets such as water and food \r\n(WGII AR5 Sections 9.3.3.1, 13.3.1.1, 18.5.3, 19.6.3); poverty (WGII \r\nAR5 Section  13.3.2.3); culture (WGII AR5 Section  12.3.2); flood \r\nrisks (WGII AR5 Sections  18.3.1.1, 24.2.1); health risks (WGII AR5 \r\nSection 24.4.6.2); and ecosystems (WGII AR5 Section 24.4.2.2; IPCC, \r\n2014b, 2014c)."


id: 2cb9735b5c56af8f74767b494ffa910c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5131
content:
"(maritime continent) to be the wettest region (Yamanaka et al., 2018). \r\nThe Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is a biodiversity hotspot (Wester \r\net  al., 2019) and also has significant impacts on the Asian climate \r\nbecause of its orographic and thermodynamic effects (Wu et al., 2012)."


id: 142dc5cb25ed289c5c16e1dc08c13acb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 764
content:
"Extreme precipitation events and related flooding occur frequently in \r\nmonsoon Asia (i.e., Southeast, South and East Asia) (Mori et al., 2021b). \r\nTropical cyclones also affect East and South Asia with torrential rain, \r\nstrong winds and storm surge. Floods and other weather-related \r\nhazards are causing thousands of casualties and millions of people are \r\naffected each year (CRED/UNISDR, 2019). On the other hand, droughts \r\nhave long-lasting effects on agriculture and livestock threatening water \r\nsecurity in West Asia, Central Asia and northern China (Ranasinghe \r\net  al., 2021; Seneviratne et  al., 2021). Adaptation to such extreme \r\nevents has been limited in Asia."


id: a0dd7824ac0ef465d5b0c708d11ee3f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25524
content:
"Knowledge and research gaps identified in AR5 include, but are not \r\nlimited to, an insufficient understanding of the impacts, vulnerability \r\nand adaptation in urban settlements, under-researched linkages \r\nbetween local livelihoods, ecosystem functions and land resources, and \r\na poor understanding of the impacts of projected climate changes on \r\nthe vegetation of the lowland tropics."


id: c6491ef296670c44abb7baf88889b111
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32197
content:
"Observations of past and current climate in Asia are assessed in IPCC \r\nWGI AR6 (IPCC, 2021). Examples of observed impacts in Asia with \r\nattributed CIDs are shown in Figure  10.2. Surface temperature has \r\nincreased in the past century all over Asia (very high confidence). \r\nElevation-dependent warming (i.e., the warming rate is different across \r\nelevation bands is observed in HMA) (medium confidence) (Hock \r\net al., 2019; Krishnan et al., 2019). While there is an overall trend of \r\ndecreasing glacier mass in HMA, there are some regional differences \r\nand even areas with a positive mass balance due to increased \r\nprecipitation (Wester et al., 2019). Rising temperatures have resulted in \r\nan increasing trend of growing-season length. The number of hot days \r\nand warm nights continues to increase in all of Asia (high confidence), \r\nwhile cold days and nights are decreasing except in the southern part of "


id: 8aac45c20404201d4d2837882412e466
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21571
content:
"Climate characteristics in Asia are diverse covering all climate zones \r\nfrom tropical to polar, including mountain climate. Monsoonal winds \r\nand associated precipitation are dominant in South, Southeast and East \r\nAsia. Annual mean surface air temperature averaged over the sub-region \r\nranges from coldest in North Asia (-3degC) to warmest in Southeast Asia \r\n(25degC) based on JRA-55 (Kobayashi et al., 2015) climatology for 1981-\r\n2010. Most of North Asia and higher altitude is underlain by permafrost. \r\nWest Asia is the driest and Southeast Asia is the wettest, with the annual \r\nprecipitation averaged over the sub-region ranging about ten times \r\nfrom 220 mm in West Asia to 2570 mm in Southeast Asia based on \r\nGPCC (Schamm et al., 2014) climatology for 1981-2010. Indonesia in \r\nSoutheast Asia has the longest coastline in the world, causing this area "


id: f921bd1ca04c529e700a7c48f5ff7585
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41192
content:
"the second half of the 20th century (high confidence) (Douville et al., \r\n2021). No clear trend in precipitation is observed in high-mountain \r\nAsia (Nepal and Shrestha, 2015), while a continuous shift towards a \r\ndrier condition has been observed since the early 1980s in spring over \r\nthe central Himalaya (Panthi et al., 2017). Increase in heavy precipita\u0002tion occurred recently in South Asia (high confidence), and in South\u0002east and East Asia (medium confidence) (Seneviratne et  al., 2021). \r\nIn Japan, there is no significant long-term trend in the annual pre\u0002cipitation, while significant increasing trend is observed in the annual \r\nnumber of events of heavy precipitation (daily precipitation >=400 mm) \r\nand intense precipitation (hourly precipitation >=50 mm) (JMA, 2018). \r\nDecreased precipitation and increased evapotranspiration are ob\u0002"


id: 7739dbfbd043158c742b52dbd2167647
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18183
content:
"Siberia (Gutierrez et al., 2021). Large increases in temperature extremes \r\nare observed in West and Central Asia (high confidence). Temperature \r\nincrease is causing strong, more frequent and longer heatwaves in \r\nSouth and East Asia. The 2013 East China heatwaves case is such an \r\nexample (Xia et  al., 2016). In 2016 and 2018, extreme warmth was \r\nobserved in Asia for which an event-attribution study revealed that this \r\nwould not have been possible without anthropogenic global warming \r\n(medium confidence) (Imada et al., 2018; Imada et al., 2019)."


id: 8d6b0cccff19d338feda31cf3cc9626e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22063
content:
"There are considerable regional differences in observed annual pre\u0002cipitation trend (medium confidence). Observations show a decreas\u0002ing trend of the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation during "


id: deb35449c06e69e01dc4a1f39e50edb3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36442
content:
"served in West and Central Asia, contributing to drought conditions \r\nand decreased surface runoff."


id: b9c39b55f797b02cd33d7d2de32c06f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29894
content:
"Rising temperatures increase the likelihood of the threat of heatwaves \r\nacross Asia, droughts in arid and semiarid areas of West, Central and \r\nSouth Asia, floods in monsoon regions in South, Southeast and East \r\nAsia, and glacier melting in the HKH region (high confidence) (Doblas\u0002Reyes et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021). \r\nConfidence in the direction of the projected change in CIDs in Asia are \r\nsummarised in Table 12.4 of WGI AR6 Chapter 12 (Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021)."


id: 24c866cf777d23d37df90bc5498efc5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3666
content:
"Annual surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia since the \r\n1950s (high confidence) (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021). The observed \r\nchanges in the frequency of sand and dust storms vary from region \r\nto region in Asia (medium confidence). The frequency and intensity of \r\ndust storms are increasing in some regions, such as West and Central \r\nAsia, due to land use and climate change (Mirzabaev et  al., 2019). \r\nSignificant decreasing trends of dust storms are observed in some \r\nparts of Inner Mongolia and over the Tibetan Plateau (Ranasinghe \r\net al., 2021). In contrast, West Asia has witnessed more frequent and \r\nintensified dust storms affecting Iran and Persian Gulf countries in \r\nrecent decades (medium confidence) (Nabavi et al., 2016)."


id: 84b1c371255baacea56c81d643a621d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20487
content:
"According to Bindoff et  al. (2019), the oceans have warmed \r\nunabatedly since 2004, continuing the multi-decadal ocean\u0002warming trends. Their report also summarised that there is increased \r\nagreement between coupled model simulations of anthropogenic \r\nclimate change and observations of changes in ocean heat content \r\n(high confidence). Observed SLR around Asia over 1900-2018 is \r\nsimilar to the global mean sea level change of 1.7 mm yr-1, but for \r\nthe period 1993-2018, the SLR rate increased to 3.65 mm yr-1 in \r\nthe Indo-Pacific region and 3.53 m yr-1 in the Northwest Pacific, \r\ncompared with the global value of 3.25 mm yr-1 (Ranasinghe et al., \r\n2021). The extreme SLR has occurred since the 1980s along the coast \r\nof China (Feng et al., 2018b)."


id: 9aceb0741c453e4d2781e4ea5ef39a31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24478
content:
"Ocean acidification continues with surface seawater pH values having \r\nshown a clear decrease by 0.01-0.09 from 1981-2011 along the Pacific \r\ncoasts of Asia (high confidence) (Lauvset et al., 2015). For the western \r\nNorth Pacific along the 137degE line, the trend varies from -0.013 at 3degN \r\nto -0.021 at 30degN per decade during 1985-2017 (JMA, 2018). Ocean \r\ninterior (about 150-800 m) pH also shows a decreasing trend with \r\nhigher rates in the northern than the southern subtropics, which may be \r\ndue to greater loading of atmospheric CO2 in the former (JMA, 2018)."


id: e099efe9bca120cd163c09ce931efe65
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36770
content:
"such as rain-on-snow, will result in an increase in extreme runoff in \r\nJapan (low confidence) (Ohba and Kawase, 2020). Furthermore, the \r\nearlier snowmelt will affect energy supply by hydropower."


id: b883c8326bab06a82c118416942a3e4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29672
content:
"Ecosystems in Asia are characterised by a variety of climate and \r\ntopographic effects, and can be divided into several distinct areas \r\n(Figure  10.3). In addition, valuable ecosystem services provide vital \r\nsupport for human well-being and sustainable development (IPBES, \r\n2018)."


id: b12f6de0bf06ed122d18834b434c4ee0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28401
content:
"Monsoon land precipitation likely will increase in East, Southeast and \r\nSouth Asia mainly due to increasing moisture convergence by elevated \r\ntemperature (high confidence); however, there is low confidence in the \r\nmagnitude and detailed spatial patterns of precipitation changes at the \r\nsub-regional scale in East Asia (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021). Increasing \r\nland-sea thermal contrast and resultant lower tropospheric circulation \r\nchanges, together with increasing moisture, are projected to intensify \r\nthe South Asian summer monsoon precipitation (medium confidence). \r\nAnthropogenic aerosols greatly modify sub-regional precipitation \r\nchanges, and their spatio-temporal changes are uncertain (Douville \r\net al., 2021). Monsoonal winds will generally become weaker in a future \r\nwarming world with different magnitudes across regions (medium \r\nconfidence). Future changes in sand and dust storms are uncertain."


id: fdaad153ecbd4d46bbf7d8bd04821920
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Boreal forests and tundra dominate in North Asia: deserts and xeric \r\nshrublands in Central and West Asia; and alpine ecosystems in the HKH, \r\nTian Shan, Altai-Sayan, Ural and Caucasus mountain regions. Human\u0002transformed landscapes occupy most parts of other sub-regions. The \r\nremaining natural ecosystems in East Asia are temperate broadleaf \r\nand mixed forests, and there are subtropical evergreen forests, deserts \r\nand grasslands in the West Asia. South Asia has tropical forests and \r\nsemi-deserts in the northwest, and Southeast Asia is covered mainly \r\nby tropical forests (Figure 10.3)."


id: ab108181b52efc258b50a581ebdde3b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27322
content:
"Ocean and coastal regions in Asia have various ecological characteristics, \r\nsuch as high productivity in arctic and subpolar regions, large biodiversity \r\nin tropical regions and unique systems in marginal seas. In the atlas of \r\nWGI AR6, the ocean biomes in Asia are divided into six sub-regions \r\n(WGI AR6 Figure Atlas.4) (Gutierrez et al., 2021). For the coastal region, \r\nthe concept of the large marine ecosystem (e.g., see Sherman, 1994) \r\nprovides the biological characteristics of each marginal/semi-enclosed \r\nregion and the regions characterised by boundary current system."


id: fa0000f2deb88479a96d31f25a094b90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41350
content:
"The global proportion of very intense TCs (category 4-5) will increase \r\nunder higher levels of global warming (medium to high confidence). \r\nMean global TC precipitation rate will increase (medium to high \r\nconfidence). Models suggest a reduction in TC frequency but an \r\nincrease in the proportion of very intense TCs over the western North \r\nPacific in the future; however, some individual studies project an \r\nincrease in western North Pacific TC frequency (medium confidence) \r\n(Cha et al., 2020). In the western North Pacific, some models project a \r\npoleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity, leading \r\nto a future increase in intense TC frequency south of Japan (medium \r\nconfidence) (Yoshida et al., 2017)."


id: 8c3e5ef870d0c3fa50a14d53eb70f6f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21847
content:
"Biodiversity and ecosystem services play a critical role in socioeconomic \r\ndevelopment as well as the cultural and spiritual fulfilment of the Asian \r\npopulation (IPBES, 2018). For example, species richness reaches its \r\nmaximum in the 'coral triangle' of Southeast Asia (central Philippines \r\nand central Indonesia) (IPCA, 2017), and the extent of mangrove \r\nforests in Asia is about 38.7% of the global total (Bunting et al., 2018). \r\nThese coastal ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services related \r\nto food production by fisheries/aquaculture, carbon sequestration, \r\ncoastal protection and tourism/recreation (Ruckelshaus et al., 2013)."


id: fe7470eff4e6339b8c6468bd2b701fe1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42141
content:
"In the six sub-regions of Asia, nature and biophysical impacts of \r\nclimate change are observed in three climate-change hotspots \r\nwhere strong climate signals and high concentrations of vulnerable \r\npeople are present, namely in semiarid, glacial-fed river basins and \r\nmega deltas (De Souza et al., 2015; Kilroy, 2015; Szabo et al., 2016b). \r\nThe impacts of global climate events also have profound social \r\nimplications, threatening human health and well-being, destabilising \r\nassets, weakening coping capacities and response infrastructures \r\nand substantially increasing the number of socially, economically and \r\npsychologically vulnerable individuals and communities (Ford et  al., \r\n2015)."


id: 43fdfa445208b9df8526d870d911a086
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9197
content:
"Ocean acidification will continue over the 21st century (virtually \r\ncertain) (SROCC). Projected decrease in global surface ocean pH from \r\n1986-2005 to 2081-2100 is about 0.145 under RCP4.5 (Lee et  al., \r\n2021a)."


id: 3e44600c15a760bf368639db886be07c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8132
content:
"Vulnerability to climate change varies by geography and by the \r\neconomic circumstances of the exposed population (Sovacool et al., \r\n2017). The concentration of population growth in less developed \r\nregions means that an increasing number of people live in countries \r\nwith the least ability to adapt to climate change (Auffhammer and "


id: 6458c5b11860bf62198d75aa30f0c951
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14934
content:
"Diverse and complex climate characteristics in Asia limit climate \r\nmodels' ability to reasonably simulate the current climate and project \r\nits future change (Gutierrez et al., 2021)."


id: 5c53134bb59c380a718660e95b0c9ab5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"Figure 10.3 |  Terrestrial ecoregions, large marine ecosystems and major fishing areas of Asia. Large marine ecosystems: 26 Mediterranean Sea; 32 Arabian Sea; \r\n33 Red Sea; 34 Bay of Bengal; 35 Gulf of Thailand; 36 South China Sea; 37 Sulu-Celebes Sea; 38 Indonesian Sea; 47 East China Sea; 48 Yellow Sea; 49 Kuroshio Current; 50 Sea \r\nof Japan; 51 Oyashio Current; 52 Sea of Okhotsk; 53 West Bering Sea; 54 Northern Bering and Chukchi seas; 56 East Siberian Sea; 57 Laptev Sea; 58 Kara Sea; 62 Black Sea. \r\nDeveloped after Olson et al. (2001), NOAA (2010) and FAO (2019), and made with Natural Earth. Natural Earth is a public domain map dataset archive available at https://www.\r\nnaturalearthdata.com/. The software used for generating the map was ArcGIS 10.0. Note that the map is for illustrative purposes only."


id: c2b9688dda56c4b83278e885af036ddd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31541
content:
"Kahn, 2018). Bangladesh with 163 million people, an example, is one of \r\nthe most vulnerable countries in the world to climate risks and natural \r\nhazards, and faces severe floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves and \r\nstorm surges on a regular basis (Dastagir, 2015; Hossain et al., 2018; \r\nRoy and Haider, 2019)."


id: ce3d9a12b7a29c1ccf6ca182dffe81c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33618
content:
"most vulnerable to climate change in this regard (Mendelsohn, 2014; \r\nAhmad, 2015; Kirby et al., 2016; Ali et al., 2017)."


id: 3e8e1cbea8930110c92e2a0a01dde8e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8192
content:
"A broad-based understanding of gender vulnerability in the context of \r\npoverty and social discrimination, as well as diverse social and cultural \r\npractices in different political, geographic and historical settings, apart \r\nfrom climate variability along with environmental and natural risks, is \r\ncentral to understanding people's capacities to cope with, and adapt to \r\nchange (Morchain et al., 2015; Yadav and Lal, 2018; Rao et al., 2019). \r\nStudies highlight the fact that disasters do not affect people equally; \r\nmostly findings show that insufficient disaster education, inadequate \r\nprotection measures and powerful cultural issues, both pre- and post\u0002disaster, increase women's vulnerability during and after disasters (Isik \r\net al., 2015; Reyes and Lu, 2016; Hamidazada et al., 2019). In particular, \r\ncultural issues play a role after disasters by affecting women's security, "


id: 6ec15f0825958fd2e4e757a62ff7b376
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16753
content:
"Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results \r\nfrom a range of social, economic, historical and political factors, all of \r\nwhich operate at multiple scales (De Souza et al., 2015; Thomas, 2019). \r\nClimate change is expected to have serious impacts on people living \r\nwithin these hotspot areas, as observed from loss of food crop yields \r\nto disasters such as floods, fluctuations in seasonal water availability \r\nor other systemic effects (De Souza et al., 2015). For instance, in South \r\nAsia, extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security; thus, \r\nagro-based economies, such as those of India and Pakistan, are the "


id: 1f5364d4acaec9a4bb63294d4d163a9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"1 million inhabitants, many of them located in Asia and Africa (United \r\nNations, 2019). Challenges with water supply, in many cases, have \r\nexisted for decades (Dasgupta, 2015). Climate change increases these \r\nchallenges (Hoque et al., 2016). As more people inhabit urban areas, \r\nthe number of people vulnerable to heat stress is thus likely to rise, \r\na problem that will be compounded by rising temperatures due to \r\nclimate change (Acharya et al., 2018). Compared with rural areas, hot \r\ntemperature risk is even higher in urban regions (Luo, 2018a; Ye, 2018; \r\nSetiawati Martiwi Diah, 2021)."


id: fec2300c4e83edc18cfb4d8f9eb022e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"access to disaster aid and health care (Raju, 2019). There must be \r\nmore nuanced understanding and examination of gender, as well as \r\npoor, disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, in vulnerability and risk \r\nassessments (Reyes and Lu, 2016; Reyer, 2017; Xenarios et al., 2019)."


id: 12ed7ba6e3ba88a611e06f52b34b66e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 537
content:
"Based on the 'World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid\u00022019 Report', the region has an estimated 400 million people living \r\nin extreme poverty below the threshold of 1.90 USD d-1. At the higher \r\ninternational poverty line of 3.20 USD d-1, the number of poor rises \r\nto 1.2  billion people, accounting for more than a quarter of the \r\nregion's total population (Holland, 2019). Beyond monetary measures, \r\nindicators of multi-dimensional aspects of poverty, most notably in \r\nSouthern Asia, indicate that a large share of the population still lacks \r\naccess to basic infrastructure and services (Bank, 2017b)."


id: 3bd26d05422f88bc9caa2e3e5aed03f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7714
content:
"The impact of heat in rural areas has been a blind spot so far, particularly \r\nfor farmers and outdoor labourers who are increasingly exposed to \r\nhigh outdoor temperatures due to increased intensity in agriculture \r\ncombined with changes in working hours (Tasgaonkar, 2018)."


id: b5d9b446ad91ed4012afa26698c85d1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29216
content:
"Farmers as a group have shown an increasing number of females \r\nover the years due to migration of male members into urban areas \r\nfor employment, which is putting women at more severe risk in the \r\ncontext of climate variability (Singh, 2019). Women are required to \r\nacquire new capacities to manage new challenges, including risks from \r\nclimate change, through capacity-building interventions to strengthen \r\nautonomous-adaptation measures (Banerjee et al., 2019; James, 2019; \r\nMishra, 2019). However, the overlapping crises of climate change and \r\nthe global public health crisis of COVID-19 represent a major challenge \r\nto gender equality and sustainable development (Katherine Brickell, \r\n2020; Sultana, 2021)."


id: b4d03ec576103af00cf550d66fc7a89c
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"For instance, South Asia illustrates that on average it could lose nearly \r\n2% of its GDP by 2050, rising to a loss of nearly 9% by 2100 under \r\na business-as-usual scenario (Ahmed and Suphachalasai, 2014). The \r\nrelationship between economic outcomes and cross-sectional climate \r\nvariation is confounded by regional heterogeneity, including historical \r\neffects of settlement and colonisation (Dell et al., 2014; Newell et al., \r\n2018). Climate change vulnerability may also depend on sufficient \r\nemployment opportunities in the risk-prone areas, land-holding size, \r\ngender, education level, and family and community size, as observed \r\nin Nepal, Thailand and Vietnam (Baul and McDonald, 2015; Lebel L., \r\n2015; Phuong et al., 2018a)."


id: 933ecb0dce27b67c668297949c216c63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23105
content:
"For vulnerable populations, such as Indigenous Peoples, older and \r\nlow-income groups, women, children, people with disabilities and \r\nminorities, the health effects of climate-change-related extreme \r\nweather events can be especially devastating (McGill, 2016). Such \r\npopulations may be more susceptible to disease, have pre-existing \r\nhealth conditions or live in areas that do not promote good health \r\nor well-being; for instance, loss of income and food supply shortages \r\ncould lead children in rural households to nutritional deprivations that \r\ncan have both immediate and lifelong impacts (Gleick, 2014; UNICEF, \r\n2015). Children, already susceptible to age-related insecurities, face \r\nadditional destabilising insecurities from questions about how they \r\nwill cope with future climate change (Hansen et al., 2013)."


id: 8c16053026402eaef74317aaabce440d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21817
content:
"As poor households are constrained in their ability to receive nutrition, \r\nschooling and health care for their children, this is greatly dampening \r\nprogress in human capital development and productivity growth, \r\nboth of which are critical imperatives for sustainable development \r\n(Carleton and Hsiang, 2016; Schlenker and Auffhammer, 2018). Studies \r\nalso have shown negative impacts of climate change on several \r\nessential components of people's livelihoods and well-being, such as \r\nwater supply, food production, human health, availability of land and \r\necosystems (Alauddin and Rahman, 2013; Arnell et al., 2016; Roy and \r\nHaider, 2019)."


id: 43702b3d01b420e7de44deaa4ef478ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9087
content:
"Major population trends of urbanisation and urban area expansion are \r\nforecast to take place in Asia. It has been mentioned that demographic \r\nchange will make humanity more vulnerable to climate change, \r\nparticularly in places with high poverty rates and potentially prone to \r\nsystemic disruptions in the food system (Puma et al., 2015; d'Amour \r\net al., 2016; d'Amour et al., 2017)."


id: f163a46cc6d2cb7d41a4fa950248994c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39852
content:
"The urban population of the world has grown rapidly from 751 million \r\nin 1950 to 4.2 billion in 2018. Asia, despite its relatively lower level \r\nof urbanisation, is home to 54% of the world's urban population \r\n(United Nations, 2019). Some cities have experienced population \r\ndecline in recent years. Most of these cities are located in the low\u0002fertility countries of Asia, where overall population sizes are stagnant \r\nor declining, as observed in a few cities in Japan and the Republic \r\nof Korea (e.g., Nagasaki and Busan), which experienced a population \r\ndecline between 2000 and 2018 (United Nations, 2019). By 2030, the \r\nworld is projected to have 43 megacities with more than 10 million \r\ninhabitants, most of them in developing regions. However, some of \r\nthe fastest-growing urban agglomerations are cities with fewer than "


id: a31bebf803e5a730468ad86dd325020a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25902
content:
"Energy consumption of Asia accounts for 36% of the global total at \r\npresent. China, India and the ASEAN countries have largely contributed \r\nto the ever-growing global energy consumption. Asia is predicted to \r\naccount for 80% of coal, 26% of natural gas and 52% of electricity \r\nconsumption of the world by 2040 (IEA, 2018). The share of Asia in \r\nthe global primary energy consumption will increase to 48% by 2050. \r\nChina continues to be the world's largest energy consumer, and the \r\ncombined consumption of India and ASEAN will be similar to that of \r\nChina by that time (IEEJ, 2018)."


id: 2025a3fb935125f57fdd735a218d81b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2870
content:
"Migration is a key livelihood strategy across Asia and is driven by multiple factors such as socioeconomic changes, increasing climate \r\nvariability and disaster incidence, and changing aspirations. Displacement denotes a more involuntary movement in reaction to climatic \r\nor non-climatic factors. There is robust evidence, medium agreement that increased climate variability and extreme events are already \r\ndriving migration (Gemenne et al., 2015; Rigaud et al., 2018; IDMC, 2019; Jacobson et al., 2019; Siddiqui et al., 2019; IDMC, 2020; \r\nMaharjan et al., 2020) and medium evidence, medium agreement projecting that longer-term climate change will increase migration \r\nflows across Asia (Abubakar et al., 2018; Rigaud et al., 2018; Hauer et al., 2020; Bell et al., 2021)."


id: 624302b36a267423f025a7f0386ebabc
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Implications of migration for adaptation. The evidence on migration and its impacts on adaptive capacity and risk reduction are \r\nmixed (Upadhyay, 2014; Banerjee et al., 2018; Szabo et al., 2018; Maharjan et al., 2020; Singh and Basu, 2020). Financial remittances help \r\nvulnerable households spread risk through better incomes, expanded networks and improved assets such as housing, education and \r\ncommunication technology (Jha et al., 2018; Szabo et al., 2018; Ober, 2019; Maharjan et al., 2020). Benefits from international remittances \r\nacross the Asia Pacific region were approximately 276 billion USD in 2017 (UN, 2018), and in countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and \r\nNepal remittances were ~25% of the national GDP in 2015. However, migration requires a minimum level of resources, and liquidity \r\nconstraints impede internal migration by the poorest households often rendering them immobile (Ayeb-Karlsson et al., 2020; Maharjan "


id: c4849367cbf64f4928c0bea1d2181e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"et al., 2020). Furthermore, migration does not necessarily mean that people move out of risk; in fact, often they might be subjected to \r\nnew risks. Notably, migrants in South and Southeast Asia have been severely affected by the compounding crises of disasters and the \r\nCOVID-19 pandemic, and there is emerging evidence that inclusion of universal safety-net provisions that embed adaptation planning \r\ncan reduce vulnerabilities of migrants (Sengupta and Jha, 2020; Cundill et al., 2021; Sultana, 2021)."


id: 779ef1f1a5f09f45db6c1ee574b12aab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18250
content:
"While there is robust evidence (medium agreement) that migration exacerbates gendered vulnerability and work burdens (Banerjee et al., \r\n2019; Singh, 2019; Rao et al., 2020), it is well established that differential vulnerability of migrants intersects with ethnicity, age and \r\ngender; political networks and social capital; and livelihoods in destination areas (Maharjan et al., 2020; Cundill et al., 2021). Across Asia, \r\ninternational and internal migration are changing social norms and household structures, with significant implications for local adaptive \r\ncapacity (Singh, 2019; Evertsen and van der Geest, 2020; Porst and Sakdapolrak, 2020; Rao et al., 2020)."


id: ecf164489498420e88fdb3c8f8f51891
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39056
content:
"(e.g., desalination, underground water pumping) to supply water. \r\nSimilarly, energy systems are influenced by the way the agriculture \r\nsector, mainly in Al Mashrek, relies increasingly on energy-intensive \r\nmethods (e.g., more fertilisers, different irrigation and harvesting \r\npatterns) (Farajalla, 2013)."


id: 7acc39a85d43cbe3371c924b8c3e62bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:56
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content:
"The current energy structure of Asia is dominated by fossil fuels. As the \r\ntrend indicates, the share of coal in China's primary energy consumption \r\nis forecasted to sharply decline from 60% in 2017 to around 35% in \r\n2040 (BP, 2019). In contrast, India and ASEAN rely more on coal since \r\ncoal may meet their soaring energy demand. Accordingly, more than \r\n80% of the global coal will be consumed in Asia by 2050. China will \r\nsurpass the USA in about 10 years to become the world's largest oil \r\nconsumer. India will then replace the USA to be the second largest by \r\nthe late 2040s (IEEJ, 2018)."


id: 6e3e7977c66a44630aafa137515dd310
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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content:
"Around 60% of the incremental electricity demand globally, predicted \r\nto double by 2050, will occur in Asia. By that time, the electrification \r\nrate will increase to 30%, but 40% of electricity demand will be still \r\ncovered by coal (IEEJ, 2018). Asia accounts for almost half of the \r\ngrowth in global renewable power generation. It is hardly possible \r\nfor Japan and Republic of Korea to develop additional nuclear power \r\nplants as planned, whereas nuclear generation continues to increase \r\nquickly in China and the scale will be similar to the entire generation of \r\nOECD by 2040 (BP, 2019). India and Russia's nuclear power sectors are \r\nalso growing fast (e.g., the recent launch of the Akademik Lomonosov \r\noffshore nuclear power plant in Russia)."


id: f038b00774dae9a85c3c71152fa6d466
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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content:
"The rapid growth of energy demand in Asia reinforces the region's \r\nposition as the largest energy importer (BP, 2019). Around 80% of \r\nenergy traded globally will be consumed in Asia, and the rate of self\u0002sufficiency will decrease from 72 to 63% by 2050. This tendency is \r\nespecially remarkable for ASEAN, which will become a net importer in \r\nthe early 2020s. The self-sufficiency rate of coal will be maintained at a \r\nlevel of 80%, while that of oil and natural gas will decline significantly. \r\nThe additional oil imports of the emerging Asian economies will be \r\nfrom North America, the Middle East and North Africa. The main \r\nplayers in Asia for the liquefied natural gas imports will extend from \r\nJapan and Republic of Korea to China and India. ASEAN has been a net \r\nexporter of natural gas but starts to expand its importation due to the \r\nincreased consumption and resource depletion (IEEJ, 2018)."


id: a50d34d113f74c4644e4b0f1798d3c54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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content:
"The increase in energy demand at a rapid rate in these countries \r\nthus cannot be attributed only to population growth and rising living \r\nstandards, but also to increasingly extreme temperature variations. \r\nThe decrease in precipitation influences energy demand as well, as \r\ncountries are becoming more dependent on energy-intensive methods "


id: 1cf8ba10e4ad7198e542d3e3c3c2254b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Wu et al., 2017a; Ohba, 2019). The decline of near-surface wind speed in \r\nAsia is consistent with the general decline of global land-surface wind \r\nspeeds, among which the frequency of strong winds and the decline of \r\nwind speed are more prominent (McVicar et al., 2012; Jiang et al., 2013; \r\nBlunden and Arndt, 2017; Wu et al., 2018c). Since the early 2010s, the \r\naverage wind speed in the world and some parts of Asia has shown \r\nsigns of increasing (Li et al., 2018d; Wu et al., 2018c; Zeng et al., 2019), \r\nwhich seems to be an inter-decadal variability. Whether this means a \r\nchange in its trend needs the support of longer observation data."


id: 2e074a5cfea5f32780a70bb410e94757
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5373
content:
"Universal energy access is a big challenge for Asia (IEA, 2018). About \r\n230  million Indian people lack access to electricity, and around \r\n800  million still use solid fuels for cooking (Sharma, 2019). The \r\naverage electricity access rate in South Asia was 74%, the equivalent \r\nof 417  million people without electricity and accounting for more \r\nthan a third of the global 1.2 billion lacking the access (Shukla et al., \r\n2017). With a total population of nearly 640  million in ASEAN, an \r\nestimated 65 million people remain without electricity and 250 million \r\nrely on solid biomass for cooking fuel (IEA, 2017). Universal access to \r\nelectricity is expected to be achieved by 2030, while 1.6 billion people \r\nin Asia will still lack clean energy for cooking (UNESCAP, 2018b)."


id: 133e3d16d52acfab64d41fbd711c72d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 600
content:
"At the same time, with the increase in the proportion of renewable \r\nenergy in the power system, the power system will be more vulnerable \r\nto climate change and extreme weather and climate events, and \r\nthe vulnerability and risk of the power system will greatly increase \r\n(medium confidence)."


id: cab7f3589d3e672d034414045a739b77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The overall solution would be to develop a resilient energy system \r\nand avoid the risk of unsustainable energy growth in developing \r\nAsia. This requires that strategic planning be consistent with the long\u0002term climate projection, impact and adaptation (EUEI-PDF, 2017). \r\nAlthough no single policy package would be applicable for all the \r\ncountries across the region, several measures could be addressed as \r\nthe common options, including fortification of energy infrastructure \r\nand diversification of the sources by sufficient investment, \r\nimprovement of energy efficiency for sector flexibility, and promotion \r\nof regional cooperation and integration for increasing energy security \r\n(UNESCAP, 2018b). Adaptation also includes promoting renewable \r\nenergy resources, securing local natural gas resources, enhancing \r\nwater production and adopting green-building technologies. These \r\nadaptation measures may help increase readiness for the anticipated \r\nimpact of climate change."


id: f7a84ddb95bca014bf93cbc5d9ae972e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Even though energy efficiency is improving, the deployment of low\u0002carbon energy, such as renewables, is not sufficient in Asia. To be \r\nconsistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, the share \r\nof renewables in total energy consumption needs to reach 35% in \r\nAsia by 2030. Moreover, the financing to deploy renewables presents \r\nanother considerable challenge (UNESCAP, 2018b)."


id: 58ebe569e8620bb1e020c6c98d95ba56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12885
content:
"The improvement of energy efficiency and demand-side management \r\ncan alleviate supply constraints and thus lower overall required-energy \r\ncapacity. Energy storage, smart grids for the electricity network as well \r\nas other flexible management measures enable this energy demand \r\nshifting. Regional integration of energy markets drives productivity \r\nincrease, cost reduction, new investment, human capability and \r\ndiversity of energy sources (WEC, 2018). For example, better \r\ninterconnection of natural gas supply networks among the ASEAN \r\ncountries enhances gas security in the region. The development of the \r\nlong-planned regional power grid would make large-scale renewable \r\nprojects more viable and aid the integration of rising shares of wind \r\nand solar power (IEA, 2017)."


id: 3e936090b1b5a0f3df18c725c0cb5e85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8195
content:
"In order to cope with climate change, renewable energy has become \r\nthe core of energy development and transformation. Since the 1960s, \r\nthe total solar radiation on the ground in Asia has shown a downwards \r\ntrend as a whole, which is consistent with the change in global total \r\nsolar radiation on the ground, and has experienced a phased change \r\nprocess of 'first darkening and then brightening' (high confidence). This \r\nconclusion has been further confirmed by ground station observations, \r\nsatellite remote sensing inversion data and model simulation research \r\n(Wang and Wild, 2016; Qin et al., 2018; Yang et al., 2018a)."


id: cbbe3ccdfb624558368fbc77152a073a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33172
content:
"Providing enough investment in energy supply is a top priority to \r\nextend the connections to those without access to electricity and \r\nsatisfy the soaring demand (IEA, 2017). The investment in non-fossil \r\nenergies like renewables has been expanding to leverage the economic \r\ngrowth in China, India and Republic of Korea. According to the updated \r\nestimate of ADB, 14.7 trillion USD will be needed for the infrastructure \r\ndevelopment in the power sector of developing Asia over the 15 years \r\nfrom 2016 to 2030 (ADB, 2017a). The cumulative investment needs \r\nof ASEAN for energy supply and efficiency up to 2040 is estimated at \r\n2.7 to 2.9 trillion USD (IEA, 2017). Mobilising investment to such a "


id: 3d1c4b6d6e61a0e8000c74b19dac37b4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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content:
"However, wind speed over most Asian regions is obviously decreasing \r\n(high confidence). Based on meteorological observation records or \r\nreanalysis data, many studies have analysed the variation of near\u0002surface average wind speed in Asia. It is generally found that wind \r\nspeed has declined since the 1970s, although the declining trend is \r\ndifferent in different subregions. (Yang et al., 2012c; Lin et al., 2013; Liu \r\net al., 2014b; Zha et al., 2016; Guo et al., 2017a; Torralba et al., 2017; "


id: 6a7706d4aaaed5348a99a1dc6488e809
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16011
content:
"scale will require significant participation from the private sector and \r\ninternational financial institutions."


id: 12e7e4a3fe1160bf3c0bafac24599861
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Sub-regional diversity of ecosystems is high in Asia (Section 10.2.2). \r\nClimate-impact drivers of Asian terrestrial ecosystems (ATS) change \r\nare global warming, precipitation and Asian monsoon alteration, \r\npermafrost thawing and extreme events like dust storms. Observed and \r\nprojected changes in ATS are affected by several interacting factors. \r\nNon-climatic human-related drivers are change of land use, change \r\nof human use of natural resources, including species and ecosystems \r\noverexploitation as well as other non-sustainable use, socioeconomic \r\nchanges and direct impacts of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs). \r\nEcosystem vulnerability has resulted from complex interactions of CIDs \r\nand non-climate drivers. Species interaction and natural variability of \r\norganisms, species and ecosystems is currently poorly understood, \r\nand much more work still needs to be done to unravel these multiple \r\nstressors (i.e., Berner et al., 2013; Brazhnik and Shugart, 2015)."


id: 4b4d548da3bd32db0a3a6c28768472b1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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vector_id: 10493
content:
"Diversifying energy sources increases energy security and thus the \r\nresilience of the whole system. The deployment of renewable energy \r\nis widely recognised as a crucial measure for enhancing energy access \r\nand diversity. There remains huge potential for renewable sources in \r\nAsia (i.e., India has massive solar power potential) (Shukla et al., 2017). \r\nMany renewable technologies (i.e., hydro- and wind power as well as \r\nsolar photovoltaics) are becoming competitive, and their life-cycle \r\ncosts may fall below those of coal and natural gas in the near term. \r\nGreat progress has been made in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), \r\nand in the conventional and unconventional fusion power that China \r\nis promoting. Conventional and underground pumped hydropower will \r\nlevel out supplies for intermittent renewable energy generation."


id: 7c12f9e7664fd760ec68216e802d93b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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content:
"Substantial progress may be fulfilled by increasing the share of \r\nrenewable energy in the overall energy consumption of Asia (ADB, \r\n2017a). Access to energy, particularly in rural areas, can reduce climate \r\nvulnerability of developing Asia. Due to the high cost of extending the \r\nelectricity network to rural regions, an alternative way is to develop \r\nthe off-grid renewable energy systems in these areas. The distributed, \r\ninstead of centralised, energy systems can increase energy access and \r\nresilience (EUEI-PDF, 2017)."


id: 15f6c62b80674b949f11623d874edc6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Changes in biomes in Asia are compatible with a response to \r\nregional surface air temperature increase (Arias et al., 2021) (medium \r\nagreement, medium evidence). Expansion of the boreal forest and \r\nreduction of the tundra area is observed for about 60% of latitudinal \r\nand altitudinal sites in Siberia (Rees et al., 2020). In Central Siberia, the \r\nchanges in climate and disturbance regimes are shifting the southern \r\ntaiga ecotone northward (Brazhnik et al., 2017). In Taimyr, no significant \r\nchanges in the forest boundary have been observed during the past \r\nthree decades (Pospelova et al., 2017). For the Japanese archipelago, \r\nit is suggested that the change in tree community composition along \r\nthe temperature gradient is a response to past and/or current climate \r\nchanges (Suzuki et al., 2015)."


id: 62ca519a06ca0314e1b2522ab9b6dced
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"These CCA measures need to be broadened to fit the scope and \r\ndepth of mitigation efforts by each country. Risk assessments and \r\nvulnerability assessments are in their early stages in the energy and \r\nindustrial sectors, and are not currently based on a comprehensive \r\nplan of action. The first step is to undertake comprehensive national \r\nassessments of the risks associated with climate change based on \r\nexisting studies on climate impacts and risks, and by making evidence\u0002based decisions on adaptation actions."


id: 6f75e99c49eda90bea51972898af9fdd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16874
content:
"or does not show upslope advance (Schickhoff et al., 2015; Gaire et al., \r\n2017; Singh et al., 2018c), or moves downwards (Bhatta et al., 2018). \r\nIn the Tibetan Plateau, the treeline either shifted upwards or showed \r\nno significant upwards shift (Wang et al., 2019c). This can be explained \r\nby site-specific complex interaction of positive effect of warming on \r\ntree growth, and negative effects of drought stress, change in snow \r\nprecipitation, inter- and intraspecific interactions of trees and shrubs, \r\nland-use change (especially grazing) and other factors (Liang et  al., \r\n2014; Lenoir and Svenning, 2015; Tiwari et  al., 2017; Sigdel et  al., \r\n2018; Tiwari and Jha, 2018; Sigdel et al., 2020). It is largely unknown \r\nhow broader-scale climate inputs, such as pre-monsoon droughts, \r\ninteract with local-scale factors to govern treeline response patterns \r\n(Schickhoff et al., 2015; Muller et al., 2016; Bhatta et al., 2018; Singh \r\net al., 2019b)."


id: 1670158032be7188f2a434e6cf24c3f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1165
content:
"of two New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, have \r\nbeen shifting upslope since 1965 (Freeman and Freeman, 2014). In \r\nRepublic of Korea, for the past 60 years, the northern boundary line \r\nof 63 southern butterfly species has moved further north (Bae et al., \r\n2020). The change in the butterflies' occurrence in this period has been \r\ninfluenced mostly by large-scale reforestation, not by climate change \r\n(Kwon et  al., 2021). Warming-driven geographic range shift was \r\nrecorded in 87% of 124 endemic plant species studied in the Sikkim \r\nHimalaya in the periods 1849-1850 and 2007-2010 (Telwala et al., \r\n2013). In Darjeeling, India, significant change in lichen community \r\nstructure was shown in response to climate change and anthropogenic \r\npollution (Bajpai et al., 2016)."


id: d42791724179224ba5340fbe93a6b1a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34655
content:
"The observed loss of biodiversity and habitat of animals and plants has \r\nbeen linked to climate change in some parts of Asia (high confidence). \r\nClimate change, together with human disturbances, have caused local \r\nextinction of some large and medium-sized mammals during the \r\npast three centuries in China (Wan et al., 2019). Climate change has \r\nshown significant impacts on subalpine plant species at low altitudes \r\nand latitudes in Republic of Korea and may impose a big threat to \r\nthese plant species (Adhikari et al., 2018; Kim et al., 2019c). Climate \r\nchange has caused habitat loss of amphibians (Surasinghe, 2011) and \r\nextinction of some endemic species in Sri Lanka (Kottawa-Arachchi \r\nand Wijeratne, 2017)."


id: edce5415d82219bdbef846d09192287d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39197
content:
"There is evidence that climate change can alter species interaction \r\nor spatial distribution of invasive species in Asia (high confidence). \r\nClimate warming has enhanced the competitive ability of the native \r\nspecies (Sparganium angustifolium) against the invasive species \r\n(Egeria densa) in China under a mesocosm experiment in a greenhouse \r\n(Yu et al., 2018e). It has also increased the non-target effect on a native \r\nplant (Alternanthera sessilis) by a biological control beetle (Agasicles \r\nhygrophila) in China due to range expansion of the beetle and change \r\nof phenology of the plant (Lu et  al., 2015). Climate warming has \r\nexpanded the distribution of invasive bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis \r\nand P. bambusoides) northward and upslope in Japan (Takano et al., \r\n2017), while soil dry-down rates have been a key driver of invasion of \r\ndwarf bamboo (Sasa kurilensis) in central Hokkaido above and below \r\nthe treeline (Winkler et al., 2016)."


id: 4a47f46824f6eea9bf377f4e6e8cec70
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10310
content:
"In Central Kazakh Steppe, in line with warming, in 2018 there were \r\nmore 'southern' sub-arid species in the communities and fewer \r\nrelatively 'northern' boreal and polyzonal species of ground beetles \r\n(Carabidae) and black beetles (Tenebrionidae) than in 1976-1978 \r\n(Mordkovich et al., 2020). The present distribution of Asian black birch \r\n(Betula davurica Pall.) in East and North Asia was formed as a result \r\nof northward expansion during post-Last Glacial Maximum global \r\nwarming (Shitara et al., 2018). Both upper and lower limits of avifauna "


id: 960cf85e67b062d643c16dbc765afffa
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23596
content:
"In Central Asia, in the Vakhsh, Kafirnigan and Kyzylsu river basins, \r\nTajikistan, it has been shown that temperature stimulates algal species \r\ndiversity, while precipitation and altitude suppress it (Barinova et al., \r\n2015). In line with the warming of Lake Baikal, Russia, since the 1990s \r\nin the lake's south basin, there have been shifts in diatom community \r\ncomposition towards higher abundances of the cosmopolitan Synedra \r\nacus and a decline in endemic species, mainly Cyclotella minuta and \r\nStephanodiscus meyerii, and to a lesser extent Aulacoseira baicalensis\r\nand A. skvortzowii (Roberts et al., 2018). In Gonghai Lake, North China, \r\ndiatom biodiversity has increased remarkably from 1966, but began to \r\ndecline after 1990 presumably in response to rapid climate warming \r\n(Yan et al., 2018)."


id: 2abfa52fc0e9b463a36f7651003f20de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4750
content:
"In East and North Asia, satellite measurements and ground-based \r\nobservations in recent decades demonstrate either an increase in the \r\nlength of plant growth season over sub-regions or in some territories \r\nin line with climate warming, or do not show any significant trend in \r\nother territories (high confidence). In recent decades in China, there \r\nhas been an increasing trend in annual mean grassland net primary \r\nproduction (NPP), average leaf area index and lengthening of the local \r\ngrowing season (Piao et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2017b; Xia et al., 2019). \r\nNevertheless, phenology patterns vary across different studies, species \r\nand parts of China. In most regions of Northeast China, start date and \r\nlength of land surface phenology from 2000 to 2015 had advanced \r\nby approximately 1 d yr-1, except in the needle-leaf and cropland \r\nareas (Zhang et  al., 2017d). For Inner Mongolia, it has been shown "


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vector_id: 16450
content:
"In Asia, the date of arrival of migrant birds to nesting areas and the date \r\nof departure from winter areas are changing consistently with climate \r\nchange (medium confidence). Time of arrival of the grey crow to the \r\nLower Ob river region, northwest Siberia, shifted to earlier dates in the \r\nperiod 1970-2017, which is consistent with an increase in the daily \r\naverage temperatures on the day of arrival (Ryzhanovskiy, 2019b). In \r\nIlmen Nature Reserve, Urals, an earlier arrival of the majority of nesting \r\nbird species has not been observed in recent decades. This is explained \r\nby the fact that other factors, such as the weather of each spring month \r\nof particular years, population density in the previous nesting period, "


id: cee812928dd6b6ef5508637c874f2a2c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33743
content:
"the seed yield of the main feeding plants and migration of wintering \r\nspecies from adjacent areas, determinate the long-term dynamics of \r\nbird arrival (Zakharov, 2016; Zakharov, 2018). In Yokohama, Japan, \r\nobservations since 1986 have revealed that the arrival of six winter bird \r\nspecies came later and the departure earlier than in the past, due to \r\nwarmer temperatures (Kobori et al., 2012; Cohen et al., 2018). Some \r\npapers corroborate that earlier start and later end of phenological \r\nevents in Asia are associated with global warming; however, other \r\npapers do not confirm such a connection. Comparison and synthesis of \r\nresults is impeded by usage of different metrics, measurement methods \r\nand models (e.g., Hao et  al., 2019). Relative contribution of climatic \r\nstress and other factors to phenology and plant growth trends are \r\npoorly understood (e.g., Andreeva et al., 2019)."


id: 40c8909fdf840fe42231ba03df91b82d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8586
content:
"of boreal forest in eastern Kazakhstan is expected as part of a global \r\nprocess of forest dieback in semiarid regions (Dulamsuren et al., 2013). \r\nIn North Asia, tree growth is intertwined with permafrost, snowpack, \r\ninsect outbreaks, wildfires, seed dispersal and climate (e.g., Klinge \r\net al., 2018). It is challenging to isolate the affects of individual factors, \r\nparticularly since they can interact on one another in unanticipated \r\nways because the underlying mechanisms are not well understood \r\n(Berner et  al., 2013; Brazhnik and Shugart, 2015). The accuracy of \r\ntreeline-shift projections is limited because projections are based on \r\nvegetation models which do not consider all the factors (Tishkov et al., \r\n2020). The regional vegetation model structure and parameterisation \r\ncan affect model performance, and the corresponding projections can \r\ndiffer significantly (Shuman et al., 2015)."


id: 693b91e2540cb9191c6ecca68b6ad83b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15779
content:
"In North Asia, a shift is projected in the dominant biomes from conifers \r\nto deciduous species across Russia after 20 years of altered climate \r\nconditions (Shuman et  al., 2015). In South Siberia, Brazhnik and \r\nShugart (2015) projected a shift from the boreal forest to the steppe \r\nbiome. Rumiantsev et al. (2013) also project a positive northward shift \r\nof vegetation boundaries for the greater part of West Siberia in line with \r\nwarming; however, no shift for the north of West Siberia and negative \r\nshift for the southern Urals and northwest Kazakhstan are projected \r\nfor 2046-2065. The replacement of forest-steppe with steppe at the \r\nlower treeline in South Siberia is projected (Brazhnik and Shugart, \r\n2015), and retreat of larch forests from the southernmost strongholds "


id: 49945ff5bff315d0decacbe86a4aad40
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10176
content:
"in Bangladesh by 2070 (Alamgir et al., 2015). Climate change would \r\nincrease the distribution of the Mesopotamian spiny-tailed lizard \r\n(Saara loricate) in Iran (Kafash et  al., 2016). Future climate change \r\nwould reduce the suitable habitat of certain protected plants (Zhang \r\net al., 2014) including Polygala tenuifolia Wild (Lei et al., 2016); relict \r\nspecies in East Asia (Tang et al., 2018); tree Abies (Ran et al., 2018) in \r\nChina; two threatened medicinal plants (Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium \r\nnepalense) in Nepal (Rana et  al., 2017); a medicinal and vulnerable \r\nplant species Daphne mucronata (Abolmaali et al., 2018) and Bromus \r\ntomentellus in Iran (Sangoony et al., 2016); a valuable threatened tree \r\nspecies, Dysoxylum binectariferum, in Bangladesh (Sohel et al., 2016); \r\nand plant diversity in Republic of Korea (Lim et al., 2018)."


id: aa567627b8b584f28a1fa6caae81cfb8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27198
content:
"A1B by 2080: for the seven northernmost snow leopard range states \r\n(Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia \r\nand Mongolia) the suitable habitat area will increase, while habitat loss \r\nis expected on the southern slope of the Himalaya and the southeast \r\nTibetan Plateau (Farrington and Li, 2016). Climate change projected \r\nunder four RCP scenarios will not affect the distribution patterns of \r\nTurkestan Rock Agama Paralaudakia lehmanni (Nikolsky 1896; Sancholi, \r\n2018). In Iran, among 37 studied species of plants and animals, the \r\nranges of 30 species are expected to shrink and ranges of 7 species are \r\nexpected to increase between 2030 and 2099 under climate-change \r\nstress (Yousefi et al., 2019)."


id: 5c756ff9b8a61d8349ac03e10f0ee16c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13521
content:
"Table  10.1 |   Projected extirpation risks: percentage of taxa (plants, amphibians, \r\nreptiles, birds and mammals) for 2degC and 4.5degC global warming in 'priority places' in \r\nAsia, without adaptation by the 2080s. (From Warren et al., 2018)."


id: a250910bdbbc2e572976ca5ac1cc9a85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25785
content:
"in India (Sarma et al., 2015); and a major insect vector (Monochamus \r\nalternatus) of the pine wilt disease (Kim et al., 2016b) and melon thrips \r\n(Thrips palmi Karny) (Park et al., 2014) in Republic of Korea. In contrast, a \r\nfew studies have projected that climate change would inhibit the invasion \r\nof one exotic species (Spartina alterniflora) (Ge et al., 2015), alien invasive \r\nweeds (Wan et  al., 2017), an invasive plant (Galinsoga parviflora) (Bi \r\net  al., 2019) and an invasive species (Galinsoga quadriradiata) (Yang \r\net al., 2018b) in China; and two invasive plants (Chromolaena odorata \r\nand Tridax procumbens) in India (Panda and Behera, 2019)."


id: 8d6039322edeaccc1160267c6d5ece36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22056
content:
"Modelling of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts, \r\nwildfire and human activities can provide keys to how people in Asia \r\nmay be able to adapt to climate change (Kicklighter et al., 2014; Tian \r\net al., 2020). Conservation and sustainable development would benefit \r\nfrom being tailored and modified considering the changing climatic \r\nconditions and shifting biomes, mountain belts and species ranges \r\n(Portner et al., 2021). Expanding the nature reserves would help species "


id: 3c4e42cf7aeb8615fdc190d43d3dca13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7798
content:
"Under regional projections for North Asia, warmer climate will increase \r\nforest fire severity by the late 21st century (medium confidence). For the \r\nsouthern taiga in Tuva Republic, Central Siberia, in a warmer climate, \r\nboth the annual area burned and fire intensity will increase by 2100. \r\nFor the central taiga in the Irkutsk region, the annual area burned as \r\nwell as crown fire-to-ground fire ratiowill increase by the late 21st "


id: a77396677015fcf00538dcc752b76b78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26676
content:
"The risk of irreversible loss of many marine and coastal ecosystems \r\nincreases with global warming, especially at 2degC or more (high \r\nconfidence) (IPCC, 2018b). In the South China Sea, coral growth and \r\nsea surface temperature (SST) have shown regional long-term trends \r\nand inter-decadal variations, while coral growth is predicted to decline \r\nby the end of this century (Yan et al., 2019). Increasing human impacts \r\nhave also been found to reduce coral growth (Yan et al., 2019). In the \r\nSouth China Sea, nearly 571 coral species have been severely impacted \r\nby global climate changes and anthropogenic activities (Huang et al., \r\n2015a)."


id: 351134aa59b73cf5cea2b0799b3d7b01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6580
content:
"The 2014-2017 global-scale coral bleaching event (GCBE) resulted \r\nin very high coral mortality on many reefs, rapid deterioration of reef \r\nstructures and far-reaching environmental impacts (Eakin et al., 2019). \r\nThe thermally tolerant Persian Gulf corals (Coles and Riegl, 2013) \r\nare facing an increasing frequency of mass bleaching (Riegl et  al., \r\n2018) and each event leaves a substantial long-term impact on coral \r\ncommunities (Burt, 2014) with low capacity for recovery indicating a \r\nbleak future for Persian Gulf reefs (Burt et al., 2019)."


id: bde22558f02c2e789085f9f9adb588d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30668
content:
"One of the probable results of global warming is high SLR. Scientists \r\nbelieve that increasing GHGs (the Earth's temperature controllers) is \r\nthe cause of this global warming, and by using satellite measurements, \r\nthese scientists have forecasted on average 1-2 mm for SLR (Jafari \r\net al., 2016). The level of thermal stress (based on a degree heating \r\nmonth index, DHMI) at these locations during the 2015-2016 El Nino \r\nwas unprecedented and stronger than previous ones (Lough et  al., \r\n2018). In the Persian Gulf, the reef-bottom temperatures in 2017 were \r\namong the hottest on record, with mean daily maxima averaging 35.9 \r\n+- 0.10degC across sites, with hourly temperatures reaching as high as \r\n37.7degC (Riegl et al., 2018). About 94.3% of corals were bleached, and "


id: 577bf83cc6d9c3ab5ba957ee7a7ae674
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12657
content:
"Coastal habitats of Asia are diverse, and the impacts of climate change, \r\nincluding rising temperatures, ocean acidification and SLR, are known \r\nto affect the services and livelihoods of the people depending on them. "


id: 3aa2124df994f3d4a878371d2dfe43e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7520
content:
"In Taiwan, Province of China, the calcification rate of the model reef \r\ncoral Pocillopora damicornis was higher in coral reef mesocosms \r\nfeaturing seagrasses under ocean acidification conditions at 25degC and \r\n28degC. The presence of seagrass in the mesocosms helped to stabilise \r\nthe metabolism of the system in response to simulated climate change \r\n(Liu et al., 2020a)."


id: 627bfa2c81c1720627ee3b4a77974ae0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14610
content:
"about 66% perished, in 2017 (Burt et al., 2019). In 2018 coral cover \r\naveraged just 7.5% across the southern basin of the Persian Gulf. This \r\nmass mortality did not cause dramatic shifts in community composition \r\nas earlier bleaching events had removed the most sensitive taxa. \r\nAn exception was the already rare Acropora spp. which were locally \r\nextirpated in summer 2017 (Burt et  al., 2019). During 2008-2011 \r\nalso the coral communities of Musandam and Oman showed changes \r\ndepending on the stress-tolerance levels of the species and the local \r\nenvironmental disturbance level (Bento et al., 2016)."


id: b78cfa73e8486d5e3e843d12e3ca08f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29504
content:
"An increase in host susceptibility, pathogen abundance or virulence \r\nhas led to higher prevalence and severity of coral diseases and to \r\ndecline and changes in coral reef community composition (Maynard \r\net al., 2015). Relative risk has been found to be high in the province \r\nof Papua in Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, India, northern Maldives, \r\nthe Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. For the combined disease-risk metric, \r\nrelative risk was considered lower for locations where anthropogenic \r\nstress was low or medium, a condition found for some locations in \r\nThailand (Maynard et al., 2015)."


id: 30fe5b3ddda46e140a334dacdcd8df87
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5868
content:
"The health and resilience of corals have been found to be associated \r\nwith beneficial microorganisms of coral (BMC) which alter during \r\nenvironmental stress. Increasing seawater temperatures have been \r\nfound to affect the functioning of the symbiotic algae of corals (Lough \r\net al., 2018; Gong et al., 2019) and its bacterial consortia leading to \r\ncoral bleaching and mortality (Bourne et al., 2016; Peixoto et al., 2017; \r\nBernasconi et al., 2019; (Motone et al., 2020)."


id: fc37477756bf540832f3f5e9892286c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41740
content:
"Coral reefs were found to be affected differentially during bleaching \r\nepisodes, and those species which survived had more stress-tolerant \r\nsymbionts and higher tolerance to thermal changes (Majumdar et al., \r\n2018; Thinesh et al., 2019; van der Zande et al., 2020). Rare thermally \r\ntolerant algae and host species-specific algae may play important \r\nroles in coral bleaching (van der Zande et al., 2020). Along the Indian \r\ncoast, in the coral reefs of Palk Bay (Bay of Bengal), varied bleaching \r\nand recovery patterns among coral genera was observed during the \r\n2016 bleaching episode (Thinesh et al., 2019). Bleaching was high in \r\nAcropora spp. (86.36%), followed by Porites (65.45%), while moderate \r\nto no bleaching was observed in Favites Symphyllia, Favia, Platygyra\r\nand Goniastrea."


id: d09142189412cc803e8309e27f1cbaa5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34041
content:
"The presence of stress-tolerant symbiont Durusdinium (Clade D) \r\nduring the post-bleach period indicated the high adaptive capacity \r\nof Acropora spp. in tropical waters (Thinesh et al., 2019). Also Porites\r\nspp. were found to have higher thermal thresholds and showed better \r\nresilience to bleaching than species like Fungiid spp. (Majumdar et al., \r\n2018). In the Philippines, during the 2010 bleaching event, the size \r\nstructure of the mushroom coral was found to be affected (Feliciano \r\net al., 2018). In Indonesia, it was found that branching coral diversity \r\nmay decrease relative to massive, more resilient corals (Hennige et al., \r\n2010). This would have large-scale impacts upon reef biodiversity \r\nand ecosystem services, and reef metabolism and net reef accretion \r\nrates, since massive species are typically slow growers (Hennige et al., \r\n2010)."


id: 8d93cb3df5f67e836dc09b3669b25ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22098
content:
"Mitigation of global warming has been identified to be essential to \r\nmaintain healthy coral reef ecosystems in Asia (Comte and Pendleton, \r\n2018; Heery et al., 2018; Lam et al., 2019; Yan et al., 2019). Restoration \r\nof reefs (Nanajkar et al., 2019) and building resilience through multiple \r\nmechanisms, such as innovative policy combinations, complemented \r\nby environmental technology innovations and sustained investment \r\n(Hilmi et al., 2019; McLeod et al., 2019), are suggested."


id: 9941683c4e05452a2d0c3df85dc2d259
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24182
content:
"Macro-tidal coral reefs are particularly sensitive to medium- to long\u0002term changes in sea-level Andaman trenches (Simons et  al., 2019). \r\nData compiled from 11 cities throughout East and Southeast Asia, \r\nwith particular focus on Singapore, Jakarta, Hong Kong and Naha \r\n(Okinawa), highlights several key characteristics of urban coral \r\nreefs, including 'reef compression' (a decline in bathymetric range \r\nwith increasing turbidity and decreasing water clarity over time and \r\nrelative to shore), dominance by domed coral growth forms and low \r\nreef complexity, variable city-specific inshore-offshore gradients, early \r\ndeclines in coral cover with recent fluctuating periods of acute impacts \r\nand rapid recovery, and colonisation of urban infrastructure by hard \r\ncorals (Heery et al., 2018)."


id: 897d596518910d086f61a87e9a85d6f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21364
content:
"and limiting warming to below 1.5degC is essential to preserving coral \r\nreefs worldwide and protecting millions of people (Frieler et al., 2013; \r\nHoegh-Guldberg et al., 2017). Many visitors to coral reefs have high \r\nenvironmental awareness, and reef visitation can both help to fund \r\nand encourage coral reef conservation (Spalding et al., 2017)."


id: 6ef84b6532aa57cca611647d7b505739
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16798
content:
"The largest mangrove forests are in Asia contributing to about 42% \r\nof the world's mangroves. This includes Sundarbans, the world's \r\nlargest remaining contiguous mangrove forest (Dasgupta et al., 2020). \r\nMangrove ecosystems are rich in biodiversity. The ecosystems are \r\nsupported and maintained by both flora and a large array of living \r\nthings, which include mammals, birds, fish, crustaceans, shrimps, \r\ninsects and microbes3\r\n. Contemporary rates of mangrove deforestation \r\nare lower than in the late 20th century (Gandhi and Jones, 2019; Friess \r\net al., 2019); however, some areas in Asia continue the trend. Myanmar \r\nis the primary mangrove-loss hotspot in Asia, exhibiting 35% loss from \r\n1975 to 2005 and 28% from 2000 to 2014. Rates of loss in Myanmar \r\nwere four times the global average from 2000 to 2012. The Philippines \r\nis additionally identified as a loss hotspot, with secondary hotspots \r\nincluding Malaysia, Cambodia and Indonesia (Gandhi and Jones, \r\n2019)."


id: 2f658b12fd31fed3f417e44955a9034a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5603
content:
"The seagrass meadows are also good sinks of carbon (Fourqurean \r\net al., 2012) capable of storing 19.9 petagrams (pg) of organic carbon, \r\nbut with very high regional and site- and species variability (Ganguly \r\net al., 2017; Stankovic et al., 2018; Gallagher et al., 2019; Ricart et al., \r\n2020). As highly efficient carbon sinks, they store up to 18% of the \r\nworld's oceanic carbon, and they also reduce the impacts of ocean \r\nacidification (UNEP, 2020)."


id: efdf7fb9222d38e0006668251ec34772
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39587
content:
"Mangrove deforestation is expected to increase as many tropical \r\nnations utilise mangrove areas for economic security. Increased river \r\ndamming would reduce fluvial sediment sources to the coast making \r\nmangroves more vulnerable to SLR, and uncertain climate with \r\nextreme oscillations can create unstable conditions for survival and \r\npropagation of mangrove (Friess et al., 2019)."


id: e8203482a3d80771cbb9c6d3a06faf30
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38162
content:
"The deterioration of this ecosystem is fast, 7% yr-1 since 1990 (Waycott \r\net  al., 2009), which has led to development of restoration protocols \r\nacross Asia (Paling, 2009; van Katwijk et  al., 2016). In Vietnam, the \r\nloss of seagrass has been estimated as above 50% and in some \r\nregions complete loss has been observed (Van Luong et al., 2012). The \r\nseagrass meadows of Indonesia are fast deteriorating, and the need for \r\nincreased local autonomy for the management of marine resources and \r\nrestoration has been highlighted (Unsworth et al., 2018). Development \r\nof science-based policies for conservation, including participatory \r\nmethods (Fortes, 2018; Ramesh et al., 2019; Unsworth et al., 2019a) and \r\nlarge-scale planting (van Katwijk et al., 2016), has been recommended \r\nto preserve the ecosystem services of these habitats."


id: 3ad8cd34e6b008d3a2acd57a076e41eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7552
content:
"Valuation of ecosystem services of mangroves have indicated that they \r\nprevent more than 1.7 billion USD in damages for extreme events (i.e., \r\none event in 50 years) in the Philippines (Menendez et al., 2018). They \r\nreduce flooding to 613,500 people yr-1, 23% of whom live below the \r\npoverty line and avert damages up to 1 billion USD yr-1 in residential \r\nand industrial property. Mangroves have also become a very popular \r\nsource of livelihood in Asia through tourism (Dehghani et al., 2010; \r\nKuenzer and Tuan, 2013; Spalding and Parret, 2019; Dasgupta \r\net al., 2020) and they also support fisheries (Hutchison et al., 2014)."


id: 71e543b36041cc1f454f3959dc967c17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17283
content:
"Globally, the diversity of the plankton community has been predicted \r\nto be affected by warming and related changes (Ibarbalz et al., 2019), \r\nand these changes are expected in Asia also. Combined effects of high \r\ntemperature, ocean acidification and high light exposure would affect \r\nimportant phytoplankton species in the SCS, Thalassiosira pseudonana\r\n(Yuan et al., 2018) and Thalassiosira weissflogii (Gao et al., 2018b). \r\nAlso in the SCS the phytoplankton-assemblage responses to rising \r\ntemperatures and CO2 levels were found to differ between coastal and \r\noffshore waters and the predicted increases in temperature and pCO2\r\nmay not boost surface-phytoplankton primary productivity (Zhang \r\net al., 2018)."


id: 85d8c26e9234c82e4180c94caa562e64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20691
content:
"Ocean warming and acidification can affect the functioning and \r\necological services of sedentary molluscs like the bivalves (Guo et al., \r\n2016; Zhao et al., 2017b; Cao et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019c; Liu et al., \r\n2020b) and gastropods (Leung et al., 2020), and also sea urchins (Zhan \r\net al., 2020). The oyster Crassostrea gigas becomes more vulnerable "


id: 239b27e70559e2569364526cd53d4fac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3464
content:
"Heritiera fomes (Dasgupta et  al., 2017b). Augmented potential for \r\nhoney production is also predicted, which could increase the conflict \r\nbetween humans and wildlife (Dasgupta et al., 2017b)."


id: 62335b13179cc84f375ab8ba42bbff4c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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vector_id: 14552
content:
"to disease when exposed to acidification conditions and pathogen \r\nchallenge indicating incapability for supporting long-term viability of \r\nthe population (Cao et al., 2018). More tolerance and benefits to rising \r\npCO2 was observed in clam species like Paphia undulate which has \r\nbeen attributed to adaptation to its acidified sediment habitat (Guo \r\net al., 2016). Warming boosted the energy budget of marine calcifiers \r\nlike the gastropod Austrocochlea concamerata, by faster shell growth \r\nand greater shell strength, making them more mechanically resilient \r\nwhile acidification negatively affected shell building thereby impacting \r\nthe physiological adaptability (Leung et al., 2020). It is expected that \r\nthere will be transgenerational acclimation to changes in ocean \r\nacidification in marine invertebrates (Lee et al., 2020b)."


id: f7976e337d0472deb1fe1b26a74c1b01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40931
content:
"Destruction by natural hazards was found to remove the above\u0002ground C pool, but the sediment C pool was found to be maintained \r\n(Chen et al., 2018b). In the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the 2004 \r\nIndian Ocean tsunami severely impacted mangrove habitats at the \r\nNicobar Islands (Nehru and Balasubramanian, 2018), although new \r\ninter-tidal habitats suitable for mangrove colonisation did develop. \r\nMangrove species with a wide distribution and larger propagules \r\nshowed high colonisation potential in the new habitats compared \r\nwith other species (Nehru and Balasubramanian, 2018). Mangrove \r\nsites in Asia are predominantly minerogenic, so continued sediment \r\nsupply is essential for the long-term resilience of Asia's mangroves to \r\nSLR (Lovelock et al., 2015; Balke and Friess, 2016; Ward et al., 2016a; \r\nWard et al., 2016b)."


id: 72fcd6dacdc090b43963f186ba86f048
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17480
content:
"Assessment of the potential impacts and the vulnerability in marine \r\nbiodiversity in the Persian Gulf under climate change has suggested a \r\nreduction of up to 35% of initial species richness and habitat loss for \r\nhawksbill turtles in the southern and southwest parts of the Persian \r\nGulf (Wabnitz et al., 2018)."


id: ab2e12f2cbc3f623f98b52eddccd34a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27344
content:
"Primary production in the western Indian Ocean showed a reduction \r\nby 20% during the past six decades, attributed to rapid warming and \r\nocean stratification which restricted nutrient mixing (Roxy et al., 2016). \r\nVariation in secondary-production zooplankton densities and biomass \r\nin the East Asian Marginal Seas affected the recruitment of fishes due \r\nto mismatch in spawning period and larval-feed availability during the \r\nlast three climate regime shifts (CRS) in the mid-1970s, late 1980s and \r\nlate 1990s, which were characterised by the North Pacific index and \r\nthe Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (Kun Jung et  al., 2017). In the \r\nwestern North Pacific, climate change has affected recruitment and \r\nthe population dynamics of pelagic fishes, such as sardine and anchovy \r\n(Nakayama et al., 2018), and also shifts in the spawning ground and \r\nextension of the spawning period of the chub mackerel Scomber \r\njaponicas (Kanamori et al., 2019)."


id: abadf5c9f00a0bb92ff1f1983e36bb19
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27448
content:
"the dynamic bioclimate envelop model and the dynamic size-based \r\nfood-web models, indicate that the marine and coastal resources of \r\nmost Asian countries will be impacted with varying intensity (FAO, \r\n2018b)."


id: 7c9b21e749143dc03c3eef2a5bc9fd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19120
content:
"0.012-0.014 yr-1, more than the predicted level, due to high microbial \r\nrespiratory processes releasing CO2 (Yuan et  al., 2019). Simulation \r\nexperiments have shown differential adaptation capacity of common \r\nspecies (Zheng, 2019; Yuan et al., 2019)."


id: 7d6cdce9c06230c108840779448dc151
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19233
content:
"Better management of resources through projections of resource \r\ndistribution, abundance and catch is required; however, lack of data \r\n(e.g., oceanographic surveys) and scientific knowledge is a constraint \r\nto this aim (Maung Saw Htoo et al., 2017). Effective forecasts of areas \r\nof resource abundance based on habitat preference have to be worked \r\nout for Asian regions."


id: dac944ea1f5292aad0f4a8475dd29a98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35784
content:
"Modelling and assessment of the vulnerability and habitat suitability of \r\nthe Persian Gulf for 55 species to climate change indicated that there \r\nis a high rate of risk of local extinction in the southwest part of the \r\nPersian Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab \r\nEmirates (UAE). Likelihood of reduced catch was observed, and Bahrain \r\nand Iran were found to be more vulnerable to climate change (Wabnitz \r\net al., 2018). Projected changes in fish catches can impact the supply \r\nof fish available for local consumption (i.e., food security) and exports \r\n(i.e., income generation) (Wabnitz et  al., 2018). As per (UNESCAP, \r\n2018a), over 40% of coral reefs and 60% of coastal mangroves in the \r\nAsia-Pacific region have already been lost, and approximately 80% of \r\nthe region's coral reefs are currently at risk."


id: b9cc6e55b66a94d8955bc8008ca7e215
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29902
content:
"Regionally, the escalation in thermal stress estimated for the different \r\nglobal warming scenarios is greatest for Southeast Asia and least \r\nfor the Pacific Ocean (Lough et al., 2018). For the 100 reef locations \r\nexamined here and given current rates of warming, the 1.5degC global \r\nwarming target represents twice the thermal stress they experienced \r\nin 2016 (Lough et al., 2018)."


id: 4c6617806028be7154beaa25c996295a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10702
content:
"Water pollution and climate stressors have been considered major \r\nchallenges to ecosystem sustainability, and now it has been shown \r\nthat the combined effect these two stressors would be more damaging \r\n(Buchanan et  al., 2019). For seagrass beds the pollution stress was \r\nfound to increase by 2.6% (from 39.7 to 42.3%) when climate factors \r\nwere added. Assuming the pollution levels remain at the 2014 levels, \r\ndifferent scenarios including RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were worked out for \r\nthe Bohai Sea, and the results indicated amplification of the impacts \r\non the ecosystem. Pollutants like petroleum hydrocarbons, dissolved \r\ninorganic nitrogen and soluble reactive phosphorus were the major \r\npollution stressors (Lu et al., 2018). In the future, policies that focus \r\nstrictly on pollution control should be changed and take into account \r\nthe interactive effects of climate change for better forecast and \r\nmanagement of potential ecological risks (Lu et al., 2018)."


id: 542099ba1df3d837ccf8a6ba380779be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12078
content:
"Projected changes in catch potential (in percent) by 2050 and 2100 \r\nrelative to 2000 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, based on outputs from "


id: 74ea1bdc6740b1e7fe68139a4949eeba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17803
content:
"Apart from these threats, natural hazards have also been found to \r\naffect coral reefs of Asia. The extensive and diverse coral reefs of \r\nMuscat, Oman, in the northeast Arabian Peninsula were found to have \r\nlong-term effects from Cyclone Gonu, which struck the Oman coast in \r\nJune 2007, more than coastal development (Coles et al., 2015)."


id: ad7f57cd9ebf8230f25024cc619dbbc7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27765
content:
"clean waters was also low (54.6), and the threat to the ecosystem due \r\nto the combined effects of pollution and climate change was high. \r\nTable 10.2 shows the ocean and MPAs."


id: 8985a3c4c83defd9fa3b9deae30eaa77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21370
content:
"Conservation and restoration of mangroves were found to be effective \r\ntools for enhancing ecosystem carbon storage and an important part \r\nof Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus \r\n(REDD+) schemes and climate-change mitigation (Ahmed and Glaser, \r\n2016). In East Asia, restoration success has been attributed to choosing \r\nthe right geomorphological locations (Van Cuong et al., 2015; Balke \r\nand Friess, 2016) and co-management models (Johnson and Iizuka, \r\n2016; Veettil et al., 2019)."


id: 14a7de3685b0480dcfa09c54aa5dff85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 858
content:
"Sandy beaches are subject to highly dynamic hydrological and \r\ngeomorphological processes, giving them more natural adaptive \r\ncapacity to climate hazards (Bindoff et  al., 2019). Progress is being \r\nmade towards models that can reliably project beach erosion under \r\nfuture scenarios despite the presence of multiple confounding drivers \r\nin the coastal zone (Chapter 3). Assuming minimal human intervention \r\nand projected impacts of SLR by 2100 under RCP8.5-like scenarios, \r\n57-72% of Thai beaches (Ritphring, 2018), at least 50% loss of area on \r\naround a third of Japanese beaches (Mori, 2018) will disappear."


id: 30db65b5d7a093b57d8bae015be3693c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5850
content:
"Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in Asia have been making changes to the \r\nstructure and functioning of coastal and marine ecosystems (Kim and \r\nHan, 2017; Oliver et al., 2017; Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Oliver \r\net  al., 2019; Smale et  al., 2019), affecting resources like copepods \r\n(Doan et al., 2019) and coral reefs (Zhang et al., 2017c). Coral reefs \r\nof the southeast Indian Ocean have been affected by MHWs (Zhang \r\net al., 2017c)."


id: 52498572d51937f2b6b534ef44478a77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11755
content:
"Simulation of RCP scenarios have shown that continued warming can \r\ndrive a poleward shift in distribution of the seaweed Ecklonia cava\r\nof Japan, and under the lowest-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) most \r\npopulations may not be impacted, but under the highest-emissions \r\nscenario (RCP8.5) the existing habitat may become unsuitable and it \r\ncan also increase predation by herbivorous fishes (Takao et al., 2015)."


id: fa218bb23d243365f7c55356577acb8e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41378
content:
"The UN (2019) has identified establishment of protected areas, restoring \r\necosystems like mangroves and coral reefs, integrating coastal-zone \r\nmanagement practices, sand banks and structural technologies, and \r\nimplementing local monitoring networks for increasing adaptive \r\ncapacity and protecting the biodiversity of the coastal ecosystem. \r\nIn Asia, management of marine sites by earmarking protected areas \r\n(SDG 14) has been found to be low with only 27% of areas being \r\nprotected. In India, detailed CCA guidelines for coastal protection and \r\nmanagement has been prepared considering various environmental \r\nand social aspects (Black et  al., 2017). The Ocean Health index for "


id: dda7da2404173b9419c18529f91f1334
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36259
content:
"In Asia, freshwater resources, an important component of ecosystem \r\nservices, are widely used for agriculture, domestic, irrigation, navigation, \r\nenergy and industry. Freshwater availability is changing at the global \r\nscale because of unsustainable use of surface water and groundwater, \r\npollution and other environmental changes. These changes in space \r\nand time, directly or indirectly, affect water-use sectors and services \r\n(Wheater and Gober, 2015; Rodell et  al., 2018). About 82% of the "


id: 2b5fd7a193d6f0ffd89c48fb0b5082f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4878
content:
"global population served by freshwater provisions from upstream \r\nareas are exposed to high threat (Green et al., 2015). Given that some \r\nof the fastest-growing economies in the world are in Asia, and the \r\ngeographies of development are highly uneven, both CIDs and non\u0002climate drivers, such as socioeconomic changes, have contributed to \r\nwater stress conditions in both water supply and demand in diverse \r\nsub-regions of Asia. In the case of Asia, therefore, the entanglement \r\nbetween the non-climate drivers and CIDs makes it difficult to attribute \r\nenvironmental changes--both present and projected--neatly and \r\nexclusively to CIDs."


id: 8db983a1f588a74c9df7b5beff2d95bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22125
content:
"Across Asia and its various sub-regions, the key drivers behind an \r\nincreasingly inadequate supply of freshwater resources, affecting the \r\nlivelihood security of millions, are varied, complex and intersect with \r\nmultiple social, cultural, economic and environmental stressors (Luo \r\net al., 2017; Tucker et al., 2015; Kongsager et al., 2016). Water stress \r\nhas been defined as the situation 'when the demand for water exceeds \r\nits supply, during a certain period of time, or when poor quality restricts \r\nits use'(Felberg et al., 1999; see also Figure 4.32 in Lee et al., 2021a)."


id: 4b81b4cdf4bd3f84fae1ecd0158b8af1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10541
content:
"The climate-change impact on different parts of freshwater ecosystems \r\n(Section 10.4.2) has affected water supply in various sub-regions of \r\nAsia. While headwater zones are susceptible to change in snow cover, \r\npermafrost and glaciers, the downstream plain areas of these river \r\nsystems are vulnerable to the increasing high demand of freshwater \r\nwhich will affect water availability in space and time. The observed \r\nimpact of climate change has also been seen in direct physical losses \r\nsuch as precipitation (Mekong Delta), floods (Vietnam) and saltwater \r\nintrusion leading to low agricultural productivity (Mora et al., 2018; \r\nAlmaden et al., 2019a; Pervin et al., 2020)."


id: 58bd16bfdfa1abd23d8ef515652706d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12852
content:
"The HKH region extends 3,500 km from Afghanistan in the west to \r\nMyanmar in the east. It is a source of major river systems originating in \r\nAsia, supporting livelihoods, energy, agriculture and the ecosystem for \r\n240 million people in the mountains and hills and 1.65 billion people "


id: 23b83f525ae97fad1a5221a1851d8994
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3478
content:
"Climate change is also having an impact on stream flows. The changes \r\nin snowmelt water can explain 19% of the variations in rivers of arid \r\nregions like Xinjiang, China (Bai et  al., 2018) (medium confidence), \r\nand the 10.6% of the runoff of the upper Brahmaputra River was \r\ncontributed by snow during 2003-2014 (Chen et al., 2017c) (medium \r\nconfidence). A recent study (Chen et al., 2018 f) has shown that with \r\nthe average temperature after 1998 being 1.0degC higher than that \r\nduring 1960-1998 in the Tienshan Mountains, the process of glacier \r\nshrinkage and decreases in snow cover are causing earlier peak \r\nrunoff and aggravated extreme hydrological events, affecting regional \r\nwater availability and adding to the future water crisis in Central \r\nAsia. The magnitude and frequency of flooding have increased across "


id: 3afac34dded049cee4f5ab7477f052fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7566
content:
"With climate-change impacts resulting in the shrinking and melting \r\nof snow, ice, glacier and permafrost, and correspondingly causing \r\nan increase in melt water, the incidences of flash floods, debris flow, \r\nlandslides, snow avalanches, livestock diseases and other disasters \r\nin the HKH region have become more frequent and intense. Some of \r\nthe key factors that get in the way of assigning confidence levels to \r\nclimate-change impacts include lack of sufficient observed data on \r\nfactors such as river discharges, precipitation and glacier melt (You \r\net al., 2017). Climate-change impacts cryospheric water sources in the \r\nHindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan ranges which, in turn, carry \r\nconsequences for the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins."


id: d8497117d9bd45b4973e0856898b5657
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35356
content:
"the Himalayan region, such as in the Tarim basin in China (Zhang \r\net  al., 2016c) and the higher Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, in \r\nthe past six decades (Elalem and Pal, 2015). The latter also reported \r\nthe highest number of flood disasters and greater spatial coverage \r\nin recent decades as compared with previous decades. In the Middle \r\nYellow River basin, which has become much warmer and drier, climate \r\nvariability accounts for 75.8% of streamflow decrease during 1980-\r\n2000, whereas during 2001-2016, change in land use and cover \r\nwas the main factor in streamflow decrease, accounting for 75.5% \r\nof the decline (Bao et al., 2019). The changes in hydrological regime \r\nand extreme floods cause changes in river morphology and the river \r\nchannel system which impact water availability."


id: 98ac05356cf71602fe0ede356cc9222c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24076
content:
"In China, a quantitative assessment based on a multi-model dataset \r\n(six global hydrological models driven by three observation-based \r\nglobal forcings) during 1971-2010 suggested that climate variability \r\ndominated the changes in streamflow in more the 80% of river \r\nsegments, while direct human impact dominated changes mostly in \r\nnorthern China (Liu et al., 2019b). In the Lancang-Mekong River basin, \r\nclimate variability would have contributed 45% more flood occurrences \r\nin the middle of the basin, while reservoir operation reduced it by 36% \r\nduring 2008-2016 as compared with 1985-2007 (Yun et al., 2020)."


id: 93bb9e72afcc3b41822ed15433579042
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23201
content:
"In western China, the total annual snow mass declines at a rate of \r\n3.3 x 109 pg per decade (p < 0.05), which accounts for approximately \r\n0.46% of the mean of annual snow mass (7.2 x 1011 pg). The loss \r\ncould be valued in terms of replacement cost at 0.1 billion CNY= (at \r\nthe present value) every year (1 USD = 7 CNY=) compounded over the \r\npast 40 years (Wu et al., 2021). In the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam, \r\nclimate-change impacts include a 30% annual increase in rainfall, \r\nshifting rainfall patterns, an average temperature increase of 0.5degC \r\nover the past 30 years and an average SLR of 3 mm yr-1 over the past \r\nthree decades, resulting in a greater flooding threat (Wang et  al., \r\n2021a)."


id: 6e8ab2db6dd5b1b03666ebf0e02c94a5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16712
content:
"A recent study (Wang et al., 2021b) has shown that during 1936-2019, \r\ndue largely to intensified precipitation induced by a warming climate, \r\nthe streamflow of the Ob, Yenisei and Lena rivers has increased by \r\n~7.7, 7.4 and 22.0%, respectively. While rising temperatures can \r\nreduce streamflow via evapotranspiration, it can enhance groundwater \r\ndischarge to rivers due to permafrost thawing. In permafrost\u0002developed basins, the thawing permafrost will continue to result in \r\nincreased streamflow. However, with further permafrost degradation \r\nin the future, the positive effect of permafrost thaw on streamflow \r\nwould probably be offset by the negative effect of the increase in \r\nbasin evapotranspiration. This could result in a situation where runoff \r\nreaches threshold level and then declines. This is clearly marked in the \r\nOb River basin, which is characterised by the highest precipitation, \r\nwhereas in the case of the Yenisei and Lena rivers, further research is \r\nneeded."


id: 3eec1cfe5cf359ecdece832232219ced
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8255
content:
"Adequate water supply for various uses is crucial for millions of \r\npeople living in the mountains of Asia. Particularly in the HKH region, \r\nmountain springs play an important role in generating stream flow for \r\nnon-glaciated catchments and in maintaining dry-season flows across \r\nmany watersheds (Scott et al., 2019; Stott and Huq, 2014). There is a \r\ngood deal of evidence that the springs are drying up or yielding less \r\ndischarge (Tambe et al., 2012; Tiwari and Joshi, 2014; Sharma et al., \r\n2016), threatening local communities who depend on spring water for \r\ntheir lives and livelihoods. Some of the main reasons for drying springs \r\ninclude anthropogenic impacts (deforestation, exploitative land use), \r\ninfrastructure (road construction), socioeconomic changes (increasing \r\ndemand and modernisation of facilities) and climatic changes (changes \r\nin rainfall regime and higher temperature) (Stott and Huq, 2014; Tiwari \r\nand Joshi, 2014; Sharma et al., 2016)."


id: e24d5ecc1839801295088ad2babe50fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37104
content:
"The HKH region is susceptible to floods and related hazards caused \r\nby a cloud burst and other landscape-based processes such as glacial \r\nlake outburst floods, which can seriously damage property, lives and \r\ninfrastructure (Shrestha et  al., 2010). The likely increased frequency \r\nof hazards caused by abnormal glacier changes, such as the glacier \r\ncollapses happened on two glaciers in western Tibetan Plateau in "


id: ea4d55889ea15b367a4f5381a545b594
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38578
content:
"The Ganges-Brahmaputra region also faces the threat increased \r\nfrequency of flood events (Lutz et al., 2019). Floods and extreme events \r\ncan impact river channel systems (Grainger and Conway, 2014). One of \r\nthe challenges in South Asia is the shifting boundaries of river channels. \r\nFor instance, the major floods on the Indus in July 2010 altered the \r\nriver's course in Pakistan, moving it closer to the Indian district of Kutch \r\n(Grainger and Conway, 2014). In the eastern tributary of the Ganges \r\nsystem, the alluvial fan of the Koshi River basin has shifted by more \r\nthan 113 km to the west in the past two centuries (Chakraborty et al., \r\n2010), which may be due to heavy sediment load from the Himalayan \r\nrivers in which about 50 million tons of sediment is deposited annually \r\nin the alluvial plains (Sinha et al., 2019; Chakraborty et al., 2010)."


id: 6b119282a5941423787e132fa030178a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16130
content:
"glacier ice is projected to decrease by 49 +- 7% and 64 +- 5% by the \r\nend of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively \r\n(Kraaijenbrink et  al., 2017). Local- and regional-scale projections \r\nsuggest that peak water will generally be reached around the middle \r\nof the century, followed by steadily declining glacier runoff thereafter \r\n(Hock et al., 2019). A global-scale projection suggests that a decline \r\nin glacier runoff by 2100 (RCP8.5) may reduce basin runoff by about \r\n10% for at least 1 month of the melt season (Huss and Hock, 2018). \r\nSignificantly, research on climate change and its impact across Asia \r\nremains inconclusive and requires an assessment at the sub-regional \r\nscale (IPCC, 2014a; Wester et al., 2019)."


id: b396cfad900e217ecd20be8ff37ab76e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28835
content:
"Asian and global water demands for irrigation, despite geographic \r\nvariation in terms of water availability, are very likely to surpass \r\nsupply by 2050 (Chartres, 2014). A regional quantitative assessment \r\n(Lutz et al., 2019) of the impacts of 1.5degC versus 2degC global warming \r\nfor a major global climate-change hotspot-the Indus, Ganges and \r\nBrahmaputra river basins (IGB) in South Asia-shows adverse impacts \r\nof climate change on agricultural production, hydropower production \r\nand human health. A global temperature increase of 1.5degC with respect \r\nto pre-industrial levels would imply a 2.1degC temperature increase \r\nfor IGB, whereas under a 2.0degC global temperature increase scenario, \r\nthese river basins would warm by 2.7degC. Future warming is expected \r\nto further increase rain-on-snow events that can cause snowmelt flood \r\nduring winter (Ohba and Kawase, 2020), affecting hydropower and \r\nresulting in river flooding, avalanches and landslides."


id: df270b75a5a9e088f2568bae00a45abb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36513
content:
"A recent study (Didovets et al., 2021) covering eight river catchments \r\nhaving diverse natural conditions within Central Asia, where water \r\navailability or scarcity is also a major developmental concern, and \r\nusing the eco-hydrological model SWIM (including scenarios from five \r\nbias-corrected GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) has show an increase \r\nin mean annual temperature in all catchments for both RCPs to the \r\nend of the 21st century. The projected changes in annual precipitation \r\nindicate a clear trend to increase in the Zhabay and decrease in the \r\nMurghab catchments, and for other catchments, they were smaller. \r\nBoth the projected trends for river discharge and precipitation show an \r\nincrease in the northern and decrease in the southern parts of the study \r\nregion, whereas seasonal changes include a shift in the peak of river \r\ndischarge up to one month, a shortening of the snow accumulation \r\nperiod and a reduction in discharge during the summer months."


id: f3d98b6c3215adf0829eed126d8934fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40280
content:
"In the Mekong River Delta (in Vietnam), with an area of 40,500 km2\r\nand home to 17.8 million people in 2018, climate change is projected \r\nto increase the average temperature by 1.1-3.6degC, and the maximum \r\nand minimum monthly flow are projected to increase and decrease, \r\nrespectively, and are likely to result in a high risk of food during the \r\nwet season and water shortages during the dry season (Wang et al., \r\n2021a)."


id: c776f7ea7b53877da12a923af4ec4bc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32404
content:
"The intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely to \r\nincrease towards the end of the century. The future of the upper Indus \r\nbasin water availability is highly uncertain in the long term due to \r\nuncertainty surrounding precipitation projections (Lutz et  al., 2016). \r\nThe future hydrological extremes of the upper Indus, Ganges and \r\nBrahmaputra river basins suggest an increase in the magnitude of \r\nextremes towards the end of the 21st century by applying RCP4.5 and \r\nRCP8.5 scenarios, mainly due to an increase in precipitation extremes "


id: ca82bf6af65fee1cd8da3d7cd4d69132
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32971
content:
"Researchers have found that the southern Tibetan Plateau has been \r\nconsistently melting from 1998-2007 and is projected to continue \r\nmelting until 2050 (Lutz et  al., 2014b) (high confidence). In HMA, "


id: 83343f98b4f8b2fa5d1aee29f97d48e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20209
content:
"in research and development for the HKH by both the national and \r\nregional organisations. There is high confidence that due to global \r\nwarming, Asian countries could experience an increase in drought \r\nconditions (5-20%) by the end of this century (Prudhomme et  al., \r\n2014; Satoh et al., 2017)."


id: 82113fff376f10851778bd4e6123596a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20003
content:
"(Wijngaard et  al., 2017). In the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna, \r\nincluding the downstream component, the runoff is projected to \r\nincrease by 16, 33 and 40%, respectively, under the climate-change \r\nscenarios by the end of the century during which the changes in \r\nrunoff are larger in the wet seasons than the dry seasons (Masood \r\net  al., 2015). In the Mekong River basin also, extremely high-flow \r\nevents are likely to increase in both magnitude and frequency, which \r\ncan exacerbate flood risk in the basin (Hoang et al., 2016); however, \r\nuncertainty is high regarding future hydrological response due to large \r\nvariation in precipitation projections, modelling approaches and bias\u0002correction methods (Nepal and Shrestha, 2015; Lutz et  al., 2016; Li \r\net al., 2019a)."


id: 4b3c4288a1b3ba7ea402e0788f24de3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10484
content:
"Soil erosion in high-mountain areas is particularly sensitive to climate \r\nchange. A recent study (Wang et al., 2020) that focused on the mid\u0002Yarlung Tsangpo River, located in the southern part of the Tibetan \r\nPlateau, has revealed dramatic land surface environment changes due \r\nto climate change during recent decades. It has further shown that \r\nincreasing precipitation and temperature would lead to increasing soil\u0002erosion risk in ~2050 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison \r\nProject (CMIP5) and RUSLE models."


id: ea20cf238a44dcc542f2b97c9443c592
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38545
content:
"Current research on the adverse relationship between climate change \r\nand river flows suggests that there is a high possibility that some of the \r\nriver basins affected by floods could be Brahmaputra, Congo, Ganges, \r\nLena and Mekong, with a return period of 10 years (Best, 2018)."


id: 581260ed4ff5d9beeae4144dc65f22b1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12750
content:
"High-resolution climate-change simulations suggest that due to deadly \r\nheatwaves projected in some of the densely populated agricultural \r\nregions of South Asia (i.e., the Ganges and Indus river basins), \r\nthose regions are likely to exceed the critical threshold of wet-bulb \r\ntemperature of 35degC under the business-as-usual scenario of future \r\nGHG emissions (Im et al., 2017)."


id: f1370e66fb85e54c14074f02cce076cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39825
content:
"In most parts of the upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers, the 50-\r\nyear return level flood is likely to increase and to a lesser degree \r\nin Indus River. Similarly, the extreme precipitation events are also \r\nexpected to increase to a higher degree in the Indus than the Ganges \r\nand Brahmaputra basins (Wijngaard et al., 2017). Increase in extreme \r\nprecipitation events is likely to cause more flash-flood events in the \r\nfuture (medium confidence). In the case of the Indus, increasing \r\ntemperature trend in the future may lead to accelerated snow and ice \r\nmelting which may increase the frequency and intensity of floods in \r\nthe downstream areas (Hayat et al., 2019). The Ganges-Brahmaputra \r\nregion also faces the threat of increased frequency of flood events \r\n(Lutz et al., 2019). Additionally, the Ganges basin also shows a higher \r\nsensitivity to changes in temperature and precipitation (Mishra and \r\nLilhare, 2016)."


id: 93b1dee3e752c920ed911dd9db58be6c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23191
content:
"In Asia and its diverse sub-regions, the challenge of adaptation to \r\nclimate change at diverse sectors, sites and scales of vulnerability in the \r\ndomain of freshwater resources is compounded by the nexus between \r\nlong-standing non-climatic vulnerabilities and climatic impacts, both \r\nobserved and projected. Water insecurities in Asia are increasing due \r\nto excessive freshwater withdrawals (Satoh et al., 2017), economic and \r\npopulation growth (Gleick and Iceland, 2018), urbanisation and peri\u0002urbanisation (Roth et al., 2019), food insecurity (Demin, 2014) and lack \r\nof access to clean and safe drinking water (Cullet, 2016), which mostly \r\naffects the health of the most vulnerable members of society."


id: 3fe3e4189c76ed24d600fed9f7ca9d7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8434
content:
"Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in nine \r\nalpine catchments in arid and semiarid Xinjiang of China (Li et  al., \r\n2019a), it has been noted that even though the total discharge revealed \r\nan overall increasing trend in the near future, the impact of climate \r\nchange on different hydrological components indicated significant \r\nspatio-temporal heterogeneity in terms of the area, elevation and \r\nslope of catchments, which could be usefully factored into climate\u0002adaptation strategies."


id: d77bea04cb706cf27507a1ed3939b257
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35219
content:
"It was noted early on (Singh et al., 2011) that the main drivers that \r\ninfluence the provisioning of ecosystem services and human well\u0002being in the HKH region are a mix of environmental change in general \r\nand climate change in particular, but much more data and knowledge \r\non the HKH region are needed in order to develop either a regional or \r\nglobal understanding of climate-change processes."


id: 6686f78443f7490e86c5769d4f8c28cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15297
content:
"Climate change impacts cryospheric water sources in the Hindu Kush, \r\nKarakoram and Himalayan ranges which in turn carry consequences \r\nfor the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. The impact of climate \r\nchange on spring-fed rivers in the HKH is under-researched and \r\ntherefore makes projections difficult. Further research is needed for \r\nunderstanding the impact of deforestation, urbanisation, development \r\nand introduction of water infrastructures, such as tube wells, in the \r\nhill region (Aayog, 2017). This in turn calls for greater investment "


id: 5d1a628e410ac0ff1bd08823550240af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13650
content:
"In South Asia, surface water and groundwater resources are already \r\nunder stress (both in terms of quality and quantity) due to population \r\ngrowth, economic development, poor governance and management, \r\nand poor efficiency of use in economic production. In the past 40 years, "


id: 3f98cd2b47c129de82994b311a71db48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8381
content:
"In the Mekong Delta, the groundwater storage is projected to decline by \r\nmore than 120 and 160 million m3\r\n under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, \r\nrespectively, by the end of the 21st century, in conjunction with land \r\nsubsidence and SLR. This in turn calls for proactive planning and \r\nimplementation of adaptation strategies that address multiple stresses \r\nin order to ensure sustainable utilisation of groundwater resources in \r\nthe Mekong Delta in the context of future climatic conditions and \r\nassociated uncertainties (Wang et al., 2021a). Proposed CCA strategies \r\nfor the Mekong River basin include a better understanding of the \r\ncomplex linkages between climate change, technological interventions, \r\nland-use change, water-use change and socioeconomic developments \r\nboth in the upstream and downstream riparian countries (Evers and \r\nPathirana, 2018)."


id: 99dfce0c736097996fd88d3d3cfb8f4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24300
content:
"While South Asian countries have done well in attaining Goal 6 of \r\nSustaining Development Goals, access to safe and clean drinking \r\nwater remains a challenge. Taking Indian rivers as an example, it is \r\nsuggested that participatory river protection and rehabilitation, based \r\non comprehensive knowledge of the river-system dynamics, and local \r\nawareness at the community level, may act as a multiplier for river \r\nconservation measures (Nandi et al., 2016)."


id: ce89f21a5c3da1224031d2abdcaba68c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33681
content:
"Hydroclimatic extremes in the HKH region could adversely impact \r\nthe Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins (Wijngaard et al., 2017; \r\nAcharya and Prakash, 2019). Studies have recommended watershed \r\nor basin analysis to address the challenge of adaptation  in urban \r\nspaces (Lele et al., 2018). A study of northern Bangladesh that focused \r\non encouraging traditional ways of cultivation suggests that rural \r\nwomen have Indigenous knowledge and their participation can play \r\na useful role (Kanak Pervez et al., 2015). The knowledge pertains to \r\nagriculture, soil conservation, fish and animal production, irrigation \r\nand water conservation. There has also been a focus on gendered \r\nconstruction of local flood-forecasting knowledge in rural communities \r\nin India living in the Gandak River basin (Acharya and Prakash, 2019). "


id: 960096306a45d0abf1441b8fa3f5d1b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23587
content:
"options and decisions about migration, relocation and resettlement \r\n(Rasul et al., 2020; Hock et al., 2019). More interdisciplinary research \r\nis needed on highly precarious future pathways and the intersection \r\nbetween CIDs and non-climate drivers in order to anticipate and \r\nmitigate diverging and uncertain outcomes."


id: 93794eb3565d2724c5b684034b370f1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23150
content:
"While designing the adaptation options, understanding the water-\r\nenergy-food (WEF) nexus among different water-use sectors is crucial \r\n(Section 10.5.3). Understanding of the WEF nexus could be beneficial \r\nfor achieving water security in developing countries in Asia (Nepal \r\net al., 2019)."


id: ead3eb3fa00bb1aa66c3430c32dea950
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38675
content:
"Ensuring sustainability of the rivers and ecosystems requires \r\ncoordinated and collaborative action on the part of all countries, with \r\nthe long-term goal of synergising political, social, cultural and ecological \r\nfacets associated with the riverine system. Daunting as this challenge \r\nis, evidence suggests that a long-term view of transboundary basins \r\nis not very optimistic as big rivers of Asia contribute heavily towards \r\nurban and agricultural activities, and are experiencing challenges of \r\nincreasing sedimentation, large-scale damming and pollution, among \r\nothers (Best, 2018). In the case of China, Sun et al. (2016) have shown \r\nthat the localised vulnerabilities within the Yangtze River basin prompt \r\nan 'integrated basin-wide approach' that is able to account for the \r\nspecific needs of each of its sub-basins."


id: f6a5dcdbbefb0ceefa6fd82b7883acb8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40767
content:
"Limited studies have quantified the actual impacts of climate change \r\non agricultural productivity and the economy. In a study in the Mun \r\nRiver basin, northeast Thailand, yield losses of rice due to past climate \r\ntrends covering the period 1984-2013 was determined to be in the \r\nrange of < 50 kg ha-1 per decade or 3% of actual average yields with \r\na high possibility of more serious yield losses in the future (Prabnakorn \r\net al., 2018). Likewise, in China, an economic loss of 595-858 million "


id: 47e790d0a6859237795ce2a9a02b4087
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9860
content:
"In HMA, factors that undermine effective adaptation to climate change \r\ninclude both sudden-onset and slow-paced disasters along with the \r\nknowledge deficit regarding cryospheric change and its adverse \r\nimpacts on water resources and also the agriculture and hydropower \r\nsectors. Other key barriers include a sectoral approach, overemphasis \r\non structural approaches and the lack of context-sensitive, community\u0002centric understanding of how these changes influence perceptions, "


id: b6bb98dcda2928bd75e3f3e3ac91409
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29350
content:
"marine fisheries were found to be impacted by climate change and \r\nother anthropogenic factors (Dineshbabu et  al., 2020). Likewise, \r\nwater salinisation brought about by SLR is expected to impact the \r\navailability of freshwater fish in southwest coastal Bangladesh with \r\nadverse implications to poor communities (Dasgupta et al., 2017a). \r\nAnalysis of fishery has indicated that there will be a continued \r\ndecrease in catch impacting the seafood sector in the Philippines, \r\nThailand, Malaysia and Indonesia (Nong, 2019). Climate change is \r\npredicted to decrease total productive fisheries potential in South and \r\nSoutheast Asia, driven by a temperature increase of approximately \r\n2degC by 2050 (Barange et al., 2014)."


id: 39bad2e2be13b6018d3e063f4ad946b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7369
content:
"USD for the corn and soybean sectors was computed from 2000 to \r\n2009 (Chen et al., 2016b). On the other hand, the intensive wheat-\r\nmaize system in China seems to have benefited from climate change \r\nwith the northward expansion of the northern limits of maize and \r\nmulti-cropping systems brought about by the rising temperatures (Li \r\nand Li, 2014)."


id: aaae9d23d3563703f9797b45dfda8a30
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27251
content:
"There is high agreement in more recent studies that linked the \r\nfrequency and extent of the El Nino phenomenon with global warming \r\n(Thirumalai et  al., 2017; Wang et  al., 2017a; Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., \r\n2018) that can trigger substantial loss in crop and fishery production. \r\nThe 2004 El Nino caused the Philippines an 18% production loss during \r\nthe dry season and a 32% production loss during the wet season \r\n(Cruz et al., 2017). In the 2015 El Nino event, the Indian oil sardine \r\nfishery declined by more than 50% of previous years (Kripa et  al., \r\n2018) severely impacting coastal livelihoods and economies (Shyam \r\net  al., 2017). The 2015-2016 El Nino also inflicted adverse impacts \r\non agricultural productivity and food security, especially affecting the \r\nrural poor in middle- and lower-income countries in Southeast and \r\nSouth Asia (UNDP ESCAP OCHA RIMES APCC, 2017)."


id: 9dfc92ef3a85f1dd8908f3c6041ec70e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25031
content:
"The fisheries and aquaculture production from Asia in 2019 was \r\nestimated at 159.67 mmt contributing to 74.7% of the global \r\nproduction (FAO, 2020). This sector provides employment to an \r\nestimated 50.46  million people where fishing and aquaculture are \r\nimportant socioeconomic activities and fish products are a substantial \r\nsource of animal protein (Bogard et al., 2015; Azad, 2017; FAO, 2018c). \r\nThe economic contribution could be as high as 44% of the coastal \r\ncommunities' GDP as in the case of Sri Lanka (Sarathchandra et al., \r\n2018). Five Asian countries (i.e., China, Indonesia, India, Vietnam \r\nand Japan) are in the top ten of global fish producers, representing a \r\ncumulative share of 36% in 2018 (FAO, 2020). As a top producer with \r\n15% global share, China also remains a top exporter of fish and fish \r\nproducts with 14% global market share."


id: 6b9433e03283d39c410207799c43c2f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16232
content:
"Marine heatwaves are a new threat to fisheries and aquaculture \r\n(Froehlich et al., 2018; Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018) including disease \r\nspread (Oliver et al., 2017), live feed culture (copepods) (Doan et al., \r\n2018) and farming of finfishes like Cobia (Le et al., 2020). Predicting \r\nMHWs is considered a prerequisite for increasing the preparedness of \r\nfarmers (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018). In Southeast Asian countries \r\nmore than 30% of aquaculture areas are predicted to become \r\nunsuitable for production by 2050-2070 and aquaculture production \r\nis predicted to decrease 10-20% by 2050-2070 due to climate change \r\n(Froehlich et al., 2018)."


id: 8592c522f32548822edef6937a1a7200
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20640
content:
"Since IPCC AR5, more studies have been done on different scales from \r\nlocal to global that focus on the differentiated projected impacts of \r\nclimate change on the production and economics of various crops \r\nwith rice, maize and wheat among the major crops receiving more \r\nattention. New research findings affirm that climate-change impacts, \r\nand will continue to significantly affect, crop production in diverse \r\nways in particular areas all over Asia (Figure  10.6). An increasing \r\nnumber of sub-regional and regional studies using various modelling \r\ntools provide significant evidence on the overall projected impacts of \r\nclimate change on crop production at the sub-regional and regional "


id: 1e873dc0074e9c16ed8467579bf0eb6f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2573
content:
"Figure 10.6 |  Projected impacts of climate change to agriculture and food systems in sub-regions of Asia based on post-IPCC-AR5 studies. The figure illustrates \r\nthe spatio-temporal diversity of projected future impacts on food production highlighting that there are winners and losers associated with the changing climate at different scales. \r\nAGRI: agriculture; E: east; N: north; NRCP: no RCP analysis; Pre: precipitation; PY: production yield; RCP: representative concentration pathway; S: south; Temp: temperature; W: west. \r\n(Refer to Table SM10.2 for details and supporting references.)"


id: f00a56fa6a29d476e7ea0fcb0a7257f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39610
content:
"health as the production aspects most severely affected by multiple \r\nweather extremes (Escarcha et  al., 2018b). In the Mongolian Altai \r\nMountains, early snowmelt and an extended growing season have \r\nresulted in reduced herder mobility and prolonged pasture use, which \r\nhas in turn initiated grassland degradation (Lkhagvadorj et al., 2013a). \r\nFurthermore, reduced herder mobility has increased the pressure on \r\nforests resulting in increased logging for fuel and construction wood \r\nand reduced regeneration due to browsing damage by increasing goat \r\npopulations (Khishigjargal et al., 2013; Dulamsuren et al., 2014)."


id: ee09a10bef27ade8d2587bbe52c859fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39256
content:
"scales with clear indications of winners and losers among and within \r\nnations (see, for instance, Mendelsohn, 2014; Cai et al., 2016; Chen \r\net al., 2016b; Schleussner et al., 2016)."


id: 4c40ed837bb321324e73740e3f9ccabe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10680
content:
"Beyond the usual research interest in crop yields which has dominated \r\nthe current literature, recent studies, such as those in Japan, focus on \r\nthe impacts of climate change on the quality of crops (see, for instance, \r\nSugiura et  al., 2013, for apple; as well as Morita et  al., 2016, and \r\nMasutomi et al., 2019, for rice). A large-scale evaluation by Ishigooka \r\net al. (2017) shows that the increased risk in rice production brought \r\nabout by temperature increase may be avoided by selecting an \r\noptimum transplanting date considering both yield and quality. More \r\nstudies of this nature have to be conducted for other crops in different \r\nlocations to better understand and adapt to the negative impacts of \r\nthe changing climate on the quality of crops (Ahmed and Stepp, 2016)."


id: f12728aa2da65c8abeb541e62c9892b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39810
content:
"In terms of direct impacts, climate-change-induced heat stress and \r\nreduced water availability are likely to generally have negative effects \r\non livestock (ADB, 2017b). In the HKH region, climate change has \r\ninduced severe impacts on livestock through degradation of rangelands, \r\npastures and forests (Hussain et  al., 2019). However, indirect effects \r\nmay be positive such as in Uzbekistan and South Asia where alfalfa \r\nand grassland productivity is expected to improve under warming \r\nconditions, which have beneficial effects on livestock production \r\n(Sutton et al., 2013; Weindl et al., 2015)."


id: d2286d91560b86767620fa6a724e8289
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34329
content:
"New studies have projected the likely negative impact of pests in \r\nAsian agriculture. The golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculate), \r\nwhich is among the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species, \r\nthreatens the top Asian rice-producing countries, including China, India, \r\nIndonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines \r\nand Japan, with the predicted increase in climatically suitable habitats \r\nin 2080 (Lei et al., 2017). Similarly, a study by (Shabani et al., 2018) \r\nin Oman projected that the pest of date palm trees, Dubas bug \r\n(Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin), could reduce the crop yield by 50% \r\nunder future climate scenarios."


id: fb776e037007eaf715fc785cbb841270
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41617
content:
"At the global level, analysis involving 148  countries in terms of \r\nthe potential vulnerability of their livestock sector to climate and \r\npopulation change shows that some Asian nations, particularly \r\nMongolia, are likely to be the most vulnerable while South Asia is the \r\nmost vulnerable region (Godber and Wall, 2014)."


id: 6c53aa898ea5ad2fb1b7b69dfba237e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16350
content:
"There is new evidence since AR5 that farming systems and crop areas \r\nwill change in many parts of Asia in response to climate change. In \r\nSouth Asia, a study in Nepal showed that farmers are inclined to \r\nchange practices in cropland use to reduce climate-change risk (Chalise \r\nand Naranpanawa, 2016). In India, climate change is also predicted to \r\nlead to boundary changes in areas suitable for growing certain crops \r\n(Srinivasa Rao et  al., 2016). A study in Bangladesh revealed a shift \r\nin crop choices among farmers, implying changes in the future rice\u0002cropping pattern. Specifically, a temperature increase will compel \r\nfarmers to choose irrigation-based Boro, Aus and other crops in favour \r\nof the rain-fed Aman rice crop (Moniruzzaman, 2015)."


id: 7fd52ab0343b0b039a8400bb321a667f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19629
content:
"In the coastal area of Odisha in India, adverse impact on the agriculture \r\nsector is anticipated considering the increasing temperature trends \r\nover the past 30 years for all the seasons (Mishra and Sahu, 2014). In a \r\nnational study that groups Bangladesh into 16 sub-regions with similar \r\nfarming areas, simulations of a 62 cm rise in mean sea level project \r\ndamages to production because of area loss in excess of 31% in sub\u0002region 15 and nearly 40% in sub-region 16 (Ruane et al., 2013). Also \r\nin Bangladesh, a study on predicting the design of water requirements \r\nfor winter paddy rice under climate change conditions shows that \r\nagricultural water resource management will help minimise drought \r\nrisk and implement future agricultural water resource policies (Islam \r\net al., 2018) that may have important implications for crop areas and \r\nproduction."


id: 339c121f7a44538191dd0979abe3e2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6329
content:
"There is hardly any mention about the impacts of climate change \r\non livestock production in the Asia chapter of AR5 due to limited \r\nstudies on this area. This scarcity of information persists to the current \r\nassessment with very scant information on the projected impacts and \r\nadaptation aspects of livestock production (Escarcha et  al., 2018a). \r\nThe use of scenarios and models to determine alternative futures \r\nwith participatory engagement processes has been recommended \r\nfor informed policy and decision making with potential application \r\nin the livestock sector (Mason-D'Croz et  al., 2016). Of the limited \r\nassessment available, a study on the smallholders' risk perceptions \r\nof climate change impacts on water-buffalo production systems in \r\nNueva Ecija, the Philippines, identified feed availability and animal "


id: a2662a497b32e8d7762e61115c5c93dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25792
content:
"In East Asia, the observed changes in agricultural flooding in different \r\nparts of China could influence farming systems and crop areas (Zhang \r\net al., 2016b) as extreme events intensify in the context of changing "


id: 76ffeca12a6c50c2d45c2a7865052a6b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18139
content:
"long term, and poor governance, among other things, that may worsen \r\nfood insecurity in the region (Montesclaros and Teng, 2021)."


id: d416e578f20570fdc399fca03688b5fa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34646
content:
"In West Asia, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, increasing water \r\nscarcity brought about by temperature rise is anticipated to have a \r\nsevere impact on agriculture and food production that undermines \r\nfood security (Al-Zahrani et al., 2019; Baig et al., 2019). Saudi Arabia, \r\nfor instance, was forced to phase out its wheat production starting in \r\n2016 and fully rely on importation to conserve its drying fossil water \r\nresources (Al-Zahrani et al., 2019), a situation which is also linked to a \r\nwater governance issue."


id: 55f629e437c9cc4503041b670b2f09a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12397
content:
"In Central Asia, a study using a bioeconomic farm model shows very \r\nlarge differences in climate change impacts across farming systems at \r\nthe subnational level. Large-scale commercial farms in the northern \r\nregions of Kazakhstan will have positive income gains, while small\u0002scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan will experience a negative impact \r\nwith likely effects on farm income security (Bobojonov and Aw-Hassan, \r\n2014). Impacts on farmers' income in western Uzbekistan will also \r\nsignificantly vary and could fall by as much as 25% depending on the \r\nextent of temperature increase and water-use efficiency (Bobojonov \r\net al., 2016)."


id: ceddaaf73e37b991a9a528b35b43d8c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33735
content:
"Global studies on climate-change-induced hotspots of heat stress on \r\nagricultural crops show that large suitable cropping areas in Central \r\nand Eastern Asia, and the northern part of the Indian subcontinent, \r\nare under heat stress risk under the A1B emissions scenario (Teixeira \r\net al., 2013) and hence may reduce cropping areas in these regions. In \r\nJapan, the projected decline in rice yield in some areas suggests that \r\nthe current rice-producing regions would be divided into suitable and \r\nunsuitable areas as temperatures increases (Ishigooka et al., 2017), with \r\nimportant implications regarding the possible shift in cropping area. \r\nSimilarly, it has been shown that there will be change in the geographic \r\ndistribution of the occurrence of poor skin colour of table-grape berries \r\n(Sugiura et al., 2019) and suitable areas for cultivation of subtropical \r\ncitrus (Sugiura et al., 2014) in Japan by the middle of the 21st century."


id: 8f53d0720f0d2d3aaef4f3270cdcf860
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22429
content:
"In a regional study among South Asian countries using an integrated \r\nassessment modelling framework, changes in rice and wheat \r\nproductions brought about by climate change are anticipated to \r\nengender wild price volatilities in the markets (Cai et al., 2016). Price \r\nspikes are projected for 2015-2040 in all South Asian regions with \r\nIndia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka predicted to experience increasingly \r\nmuch higher rice and wheat prices than under the baseline scenario, \r\ncreating major concerns about food affordability and food security. \r\nThis will likely severely affect the overall economic growth of these \r\ncountries since they are mainly agriculture-driven economies."


id: a70ddab7214afd95f6fd099bda42c769
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26603
content:
"There is emerging evidence from modelling and field experimentation \r\nthat designing future farming systems and crop areas that will promote \r\nsustainable development in Asia in the context of climate change would \r\nhave to incorporate not only productivity and price considerations \r\nbut also how to moderate temperature increase, enhance water \r\nconservation and optimise GHG mitigation potential (Sapkota et al., \r\n2015; Zhang et al., 2016a; Ko et al., 2017; Lim et al., 2017b). The effects \r\nof agricultural landscape change on ecosystem services also need to \r\nbe understood and taken into account in designing farming systems \r\nand allocating farm areas (Lee et al., 2015b; Zanzanaini et al., 2017)."


id: c0326ae9807859262a807c335cf6255d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31114
content:
"A study on mapping global patterns of drought risk projected an \r\nincrease in drought frequency and intensity in the populated areas of \r\nSouth to Central Asia extensively used for crop and livestock production \r\nwith serious repercussion to food security and potential civil conflict \r\nin the medium to long term (Carrao et al., 2016). In Southeast Asia, \r\na Philippine study on the relationship between seasonal rainfall, \r\nagricultural production and civil conflict suggests that the projected \r\nchange towards wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons in many \r\nparts of the country will lead to more civil conflict (Crost et al., 2018) \r\nwith negative implications for food and human security. Similarly, \r\nfloods and higher food prices are also associated with higher risks of \r\nsocial unrest in Asia that may undermine food security (Hendrix and \r\nHaggard, 2015; Ide et al., 2021)."


id: b6234cf9d397d6379e82b830e127b6f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29263
content:
"FAO (2001) defines food security as 'a situation that exists when all \r\npeople, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to \r\nsufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and \r\nfood preferences for an active and healthy life'. There is significant \r\nevidence that climate change significantly undermines both agricultural \r\nproduction and food security in Asia (ADB, 2017b). Increasing evidence \r\nfrom sub-regions and individual countries suggests that climate-related \r\nhazards, such as increasing temperature, changing rainfall, SLR, drought, \r\nflooding and the more frequent and intense occurrences of El Nino-\r\nSouthern Oscillation events, all impact agricultural production with \r\nsignificant effects on food security. All these hazards interact with non\u0002climatic factors, such as competing demand for scarce water resources, \r\nrural-urban migration, food prices and increasing food demand in the "


id: 83f5f89d0df3ba222693409fe007d068
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20368
content:
"Food insecurity will be localised across Asia where one part of the \r\ncountry or sub-region will be more food secured while the others, \r\nmore insecure. This will require in-country or sub-regional trade and \r\ndevelopment cooperation to minimise the adverse impacts of food \r\ninsecurity associated with the changing climate (Li et al., 2014a; Abid \r\net al., 2016)."


id: d3ef07cab85a53d5c5f8803d4a7870d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34620
content:
"Since AR5, there has been a surge in the volume of literature that \r\ndocuments and assesses the different adaptation practices already \r\nemployed in Asian agriculture as well as those that provide future \r\nadaptation options. There is robust evidence that a variety of \r\nadaptation practices already employed in agriculture and fisheries are \r\nvaluable in reducing the negative effects of current climate anomalies \r\nbut may not be sufficient to fully offset the adverse impacts of future \r\nclimate scenarios. Recent literature, therefore, focuses on how to build \r\non current adaptation initiatives and processes to improve current and \r\nfuture outcomes (Iizumi, 2019)."


id: 3784dbd093dbe53677150159c894cdf7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6980
content:
"Vulnerability of aquaculture-related livelihoods to climate change was \r\nassessed at the global scale using the MAGICC/SCENGEN climate \r\nmodelling tools, and Vietnam and Thailand were identified as most \r\nvulnerable in brackish-water aquaculture production (Handisyde et al., \r\n2017). China, Vietnam and the Philippines are also ranked highly \r\nvulnerable in marine production. Moreover, a recent vulnerability \r\nassessment of Korean aquaculture based on predicted changes in \r\nseawater temperature and salinity according to RCP8.5 indicated \r\nthat vulnerability was highest for seaweed, such as laver and sea \r\nmustard, while fish, shrimp and abalone are relatively less vulnerable \r\nas they are less sensitive to high water temperature and their farming \r\nenvironments are controllable to a large extent (Kim et  al., 2019a). \r\nIn Indonesia, farming of whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) has \r\nbeen found to be vulnerable to increased rainfall and temperature \r\ndecrease (Puspa et al., 2018)."


id: fe2a106f946827579b186f6ca9ae571a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42080
content:
"Adaptation measures are also beneficial to small-scale fishers and fish \r\nfarmers (Miller et al., 2018), and through fisheries management plans \r\n(FMP) and Early warning systems, the Asian region is reducing climate \r\nimpact (FAO, 2018c). The most common FMPs adopted in different \r\nAsian countries are limits to fishing gear, licensing schemes and \r\nseasonal closures (ILO, 2015), protection of nursery grounds, providing \r\nalternative livelihoods (Azad, 2017), limiting fish aggregating devices \r\n(FADs) and introduction of monitoring and control tools (Department \r\nof Fisheries (Thailand), 2015). Fishers' strong sense of belonging to \r\ntheir place of residence and the sense of responsibility to protect the \r\nvulnerable fish stock has been advantageously used for developing \r\ncooperatives and starting community-based fisheries management \r\n(FAO, 2012; ILO, 2015; Shaffril et al., 2017), and these initiatives have \r\nyielded positive results."


id: 10d9ee90a61779bc1e9d49f12e460825
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 154
content:
"Climate-change-induced vulnerability, however, is complicated by \r\nnon-climate drivers. In Thailand, for instance, a 38% reduction (from \r\n21,486 to 13,328 million at the present value (1 USD = 33.54 THB) in \r\nthe export values of rice and products in the last quarter of 2011 has \r\nbeen attributed not only to the impact of tropical cyclone Nock-Ten on \r\nThai rice export but also the economic slowdown in Thailand during \r\n2011-2012 (Nara et al., 2014)."


id: d7c8ff5e15e6e8d29b40a622768dca7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35273
content:
"Considering the high vulnerability of Asia to climate change as a whole, \r\nthere is a need to look at the drivers of vulnerability in an integrated \r\nand comprehensive manner. The increasing interest on nexus studies \r\nthat links climate-change impacts on agriculture with the other sectors \r\nlike water, energy, land-use change, urbanisation, poverty, economic \r\nliberalisation and others (see, for example, Takama et al., 2016; Aich \r\net al., 2017; Eslamian et al., 2017; Duan et al., 2019b) could contribute \r\nto a systemwide vulnerability reduction and an important initial step \r\ntowards a more climate-resilient future."


id: 713c3ce5869a0eb3a0c6a8a14753effa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:57
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17180
content:
"In aquaculture, most households in shrimp communities rely on process\u0002oriented multiple coping mechanisms such as consumption smoothing, \r\nincome smoothing and migration that enhance farmers' resilience to \r\nclimate anomalies (Kais and Islam, 2018). Diversification and integration \r\nof varied resources and interventions in feed and husbandry are seen to \r\nhelp the aqua farmers increase their profits and overcome the impacts \r\nof climate change (Henriksson et al., 2019). Strategies like polyculture, \r\nintegrated multitrophic aquaculture (IMTA) and recirculating aquaculture "


