# document

id: ab3094440d8a60b0b49af7f526c0a764
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"Many time scales have been assessed that shape the context for any \r such transformations: including the present, 2030 and mid-century \r (Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE in Chapter 1). In the present, significant \r changes in the climate system have already occurred in many places \r (WGI), while commensurate adaptation actions have in general been \r lacking (Chapter 16). By 2030, the SDGs call for significant societal \r changes, many of which would be more difficult to achieve without \r significant reductions in climate risk and impacts. By mid-century, \r global emissions pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5degC \r target drop to zero net GHG emissions with no overshoot and roughly a \r decade later with overshoot (Cross-Chapter Box CLIMATE in Chapter 1). \r Pathways consistent with the Paris 2degC target drop to zero net emissions \r in the latter half of the 21st century. Even in low emission scenarios, \r temperatures, storm intensities, sea levels and other climate parameters \r [...]"


id: 5068f1d3d9365ca15fd9b7410a625fbf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"To assess the projected losses and damages, residual risks also need to \r be taken into account. The loss and damage associated with the future \r climate change impacts, beyond the limits to adaptation, is an area of \r increasing focus, although yet to be fully developed in terms of methods \r of assessment. This includes non-economic losses and damages, as well \r as identifying means to avoid and reduce both economic (loss of asset, \r infrastructure, land etc.) and non-economic (loss of societal beliefs and \r values, cultural heritage, biodiversity and ecosystem services) losses \r and damages (Fankhauser and Dietz, 2014; Andrei et al., 2015). There \r is increasing evidence of economic and non-economic losses due to \r climate extremes and slow onset events under observed increases in \r global temperatures (Section  8.3.4; Coronese et  al., 2019; Grinsted \r et al., 2019; Kahn et al., 2019), however assessment of non-economic \r [...]"


id: afb7cdca0a9a62da0c4f5fd9f8e2fc7c
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"[...] losses and damages is lacking and needs more attention (Serdeczny \r et al., 2016; Tschakert et al., 2019). The aggregate losses and damages \r would be higher if non-economic values are considered in such \r assessment (Laurila-Pant et al., 2015; McShane, 2017). To reduce or \r avoid loss and damage, there is a need for robust conceptual framework \r and analysis, focusing on future losses rather than past losses (Preston, \r 2017). This should have an emphasis on avoiding versus addressing \r loss and damage and the role of justice (Boyd et al., 2017), clarity on \r detection and attribution (Sections 8.2.1; 8.3.3), effectiveness of risk \r management and adaptation (Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter \r 18; Section 1.4), the concepts of risk transfer, liability and financing \r (Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17; Section 17.4.2) and the \r role of transformation (Section 1.5)."


id: 10d81e466b4e71d1a3dd7411722b143f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"Over the last 200  years, human society has undergone a rapid and \r profound transformation, with population and income per capita \r expanding by an order of magnitude or more after many millennia \r of relative stasis in living standards (Dasgupta et  al., 2018). The \r transformations associated with sustainable development and \r managing climate risk may be of similar scale as these historic \r transformations. In the past, changes in technologies and economies \r of this scale are not separate from, but are necessarily embedded \r alongside changes in political, religious and social relationships \r (Polanyi, 1957). Future transformation may similarly involve such \r interlinked social, cultural, economic, environmental, technical and \r political factors (Chapter 18; Section 1.5.2). Technology-led, market-led \r or state-led transitions aimed at meeting Paris Agreement and SDGs \r may fail without integrating dimensions of social justice and addressing \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"[...] the social and political exclusion that prevent the disadvantaged from \r accessing such improvements and increasing their incomes (Burkett \r et al., 2014; Scoones et al., 2015) (medium confidence)."


id: 861993b12991884d2c3a6ebd4bdf1c07
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"Figure  1.9 connects several key concepts that this report employs \r to help distinguish pathways that lead to deliberative and forced \r transformations. As shown in the figure, adaptation goals might imply \r a desired level of adaptation: (a) accessible by actions within the \r solution space of the existing system or (b) beyond the solution space \r of the existing system. In the former case, incremental adaptation may \r stay within soft limits and hold risks to tolerable levels that avoid \r threatening private or social norms (also see Figure 17.6). In the latter \r case, deliberate transformational adaptation is necessary to reach the \r goals. Alternatively, if deliberate transformation does not successfully \r occur or hard limits are exceeded, the system may nonetheless \r undergo some type of forced transformation which results in outcomes \r inconsistent with societal goals. While the figure shows single decision \r [...]"


id: 9f56e1692ae17e1d154e104af3a2852c
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"[...] points, multiple actors are involved at each stage. Thus, some people \r may find themselves coping with what they regard as intolerable risks \r which are not otherwise avoided. Often such coping situations display \r significant inequities, with tolerable risks for powerful groups and \r intolerable ones for marginalised groups."


id: 9aecbfe536166da415254154dd84d53d
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"(Kohler et al., 2019). This literature identifies three, interacting scales: \r the micro, meso and macro.(Geels, 2004; Kohler et al., 2019) The micro \r level reflects changing individual choices, attitudes and motivations. The \r meso reflects socio-technical systems, 'a cluster of elements, including \r technology, regulations, user practices and markets, cultural meanings, \r infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks' (Geels, 2004, \r p. 436). The macro reflects the cultures, institutions, norms, governance \r and other broad organising features of society. The sustainability \r transitions literature generally focuses on change that originates and \r occurs within the meso scale, while the transformation literature focuses \r on change within and among all scales. This Working Group II report \r often considers three interacting scales labelled personal, practical and \r political (O'Brien and Sygna, 2013). Working Group III often employs \r [...]"


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"[...] the multi-level perspectives framework (Geels, 2004) and the more \r actor-oriented three domains of decision making framework (WGIII \r Section 1.6.4; Grubb et al., 2014;) to describe related societal scales."


id: e74a5d818ae8f790033ced68318ac981
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"These literatures describe similar processes through which these \r interacting elements generate significant system change. In the \r sustainability transitions literature, the process begins with a stable \r system of actors, technologies and institutions (Kohler et  al., 2019). \r Radical innovations begin in niches or protected spaces, sometimes \r introduced by new entrants or outsiders. Successful innovations expand \r in scale, scope and geographically, and ultimately help generate \r new regimes. Incumbent actors can support or resist innovations \r through combinations of government policies, economic forces and \r institutional and behavioural pressures. Such processes can, but need \r not, follow a common S-curve pattern of initial adoption, take-off, \r acceleration and stabilisation (Rotmans et al., 2001). The multi-level \r perspectives literature in WGIII similarly describes innovations as \r moving from niches to socio-technical regimes, at first mediated by \r [...]"


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"[...] and then potentially altering exogenous socio-technical landscapes \r (WGIII Section 1.6.4; Smith et al., 2010)."


id: 3693072c47ed2eab412c813826065675
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"This report describes decision frameworks and tools that can \r help those involved in such a process--acting independently or \r collectively--identify, evaluate, seek compromise on and then \r implement sequences of solutions that lead to pathways with more \r desirable outcomes and avoid pathways with less desirable outcomes \r (Section  17.3.1). For instance, adaptive (also called adaptation) \r pathways (Cross-Chapter Boxes SLR in Chapter 3 and DEEP in Chapter \r 17) explicitly chart alternative sequences of actions including near\u0002term steps, indicators to monitor and contingency actions to take if \r pre-determined monitoring thresholds are breached. Employed in \r contexts with multiple actors and contested values, adaptive pathways \r frame deliberate transformation as both a near-term decision problem \r focused on physical, financial and natural resources, as well as a \r social change process of co-evolving knowledge, policies, institutions, \r [...]"


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"[...] values, rules and norms (Fazey et al., 2016). Transition management \r (Loorbach, 2010), rooted in the sustainability transitions literature, \r supports arenas of actors that co-produce visions of future change, \r plan pathways and recruit additional actors into the change process."


id: 4b183053921da6e6104f3dfe057f5df0
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"Building on AR5, this AR6 report expands the focus with increased \r attention to equity and the processes needed to follow such \r trajectories. AR6 thus defines climate resilient development as 'a \r process of implementing GHG mitigation and adaptation solutions \r to support sustainable development for all' (Section 18.1.1). In AR6 \r WGII, some chapters have a section dedicated to climate resilient \r development, emphasising the need for integrative and transformative \r solutions within a sector or region that address the uneven distribution \r of climate risks among different groups and geographies, as well as \r extend the goals of these solutions to more than reducing risk, such as \r in improving social, economic and ecological outcomes (Sections 2.6.7; \r 4.1; 5.14.4; 6.4.8; 7.4.3.5; 7.4.5; 10.6; 11.8; 15.7; 17.6; Boxes 4.7; 13.3; \r 8.10). Multiple chapters also employ the concept of climate resilient \r development to identify and balance trade-offs and make progress on \r [...]"


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"[...] achieving the SDGs (Sections 6.1.3; 7.4.5; 10.6; 13.11; 15.7; 16.6.4.3; \r Box 4.7; Chapter 18)."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"Climate resilient development requires large and equitable changes \r in human and natural systems. As noted in Section 1.5.1, the SR1.5 \r finds that four transitions in socioeconomic systems--energy, land \r and ecosystems, urban and infrastructure, and industrial--must occur \r at large scale and rapid rate in order to achieve climate resilient \r development. This report notes that transitions of such scale, even \r when beneficial for many people, can also impose significant adverse \r impacts on others, in particular on marginal and vulnerable populations \r (Section 18.1.2). This report identifies a fifth socioeconomic transition, \r that in societal systems that 'drive innovation, preferences for \r alternative patterns of consumption and development, and the power \r relationships among different actors that engage in climate resilient \r development (Section 18.1.4). Such societal transitions are necessary \r to ensure the other four transitions unfold at sufficient speed and scale \r [...]"


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"[...] to meet the goals of Paris and the SDGs, as well as to ensure equity in \r these transitions."


id: 57a35007a0bc734365f3abf9bc2d4f55
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"Nonetheless, most concepts of deliberate transformation also emphasise \r the importance of common goals and principles within a process of \r goal setting, acting on those goals, M&E and readjustment. Such goals \r encourage pro-active action, help align the activities of multiple, loosely \r co-ordinated actors (Gopel, 2016; Dasgupta et  al., 2018) and provide \r benchmarks against which to measure progress (Young, 2017). The Paris \r Agreement and SDGs aim to provide such common goals for the world \r as a whole and implement what some have described as goal-based \r as opposed to rule-based governance for galvanising collective action \r (Sachs, 2015; Kanie and Biermann, 2017). As intended, many public \r sector, private sector and civil society actors have developed their own \r goals that aim to align with the Paris Agreement and the SDGs (see \r Section 1.1). The existence of goals that help people envision a future \r significantly different than present can be one, often key, difference \r [...]"


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"[...] between decision processes that pursue transformational as opposed to \r incremental change (Park et al., 2012; Chapter 17). Narratives that help "


id: 4eb3478dc96542833c3fb7289ddd46a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"carbon, prosperous and ecologically safe futures. This report defines \r a climate resilient development pathway as a trajectory in time \r reflecting a particular sequence of actions and consequences against \r a background of autonomous developments leading to a specific \r future situation (Section  18.1.2). Such a pathway emerges from the \r spatially and temporally distributed choices of many different actors \r in government, business, civic organisations and households at the \r individual, community, national and international levels. As such, there \r is no single or preferred pathway for climate resilient development and \r no single best combination of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable \r development strategies. All pathways involve complex trade-offs \r and synergies among different actions (Sections  18.1.4; 18.2.2). All \r pathways are subject to hard-to-predict shocks, both adverse, such as \r climate disasters, and beneficial, such as new technologies or shifts in \r [...]"


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"[...] public values. The pathway that emerges will represent the results of \r negotiation, cooperation and competition among actors at many scales, \r whose differing values and objectives would favour differing trajectories \r (Section 18.1.4). Individual actors at various scales will determine the \r mix of adaptation, mitigation and development appropriate for their \r development context and goals, while also influenced by the desire for \r their collective actions to become consistent with the global policy goals, \r such as those in the Paris Agreement and the SDGs (Section 18.1.2). The \r norms, institutions and power relationships that mediate such choices \r determine the extent to which the process unfolds consistent with \r principles of equity and social justice (high confidence)."


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"Climate change adaptation entails the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects \r in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. At a high level, international frameworks, including \r the Paris Agreement and the SDGs, have come to provide a direction for coordinating, financing and assessing \r global progress in these terms. The Paris Agreement calls for climate change adaptation actions, referring to these \r actions as those that reduce risk and vulnerability, strengthen resilience, enhance the capacity to anticipate and \r respond successfully, and ensure the availability of necessary financial resources, as these processes and outcomes \r relate to climate change. In addition, the Sustainable Development Goals include 17 targets (with a specific goal \r SDG 13 on climate action) to fulfil its mission to end extreme poverty by 2030, protect the planet and build more \r [...]"


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"[...] peaceful, just and inclusive societies. These goals are difficult to reach without successful adaptation to climate \r change. Other notable frameworks that identify climate change adaptation as important global priorities include \r the SFDRR, the finance-oriented Addis Ababa Action Agenda and the New Urban Agenda."


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"Because the impacts of climate change affect people and nature in so many different ways, the specific goals of \r adaptation depend on the impact being managed and the action being taken. For human systems, adaptation \r includes actions aimed at reducing a specific risk, such as by fortifying a building against flooding, or actions aimed \r at multiple risks, such as requiring climate risk assessments in financial reporting in anticipation of different kinds \r of risk. At the local level, communities can take actions that include updating building codes and land use plans, \r improving soil management, enhancing water use efficiency, supporting migrants and taking measures to reduce \r poverty. For natural systems, adaptation includes organisms changing behaviours, migrating to new locations and \r genetic modifications in response to changing climate conditions. The goals for these adaptation actions can relate \r [...]"


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"[...] to health, water or food security, jobs and employment, poverty eradication and social equity, biodiversity and \r ecosystem services, among others. Articulating the goals of adaptation thus requires engaging with the concepts of \r equity, justice and effectiveness at the international, national and local levels."


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"The degree to which an action is feasible is the extent to which it is appraised as possible and desirable, taking into \r consideration barriers, enablers, synergies and trade-offs. These considerations are based on financial or economic, \r political, physical, historical and social factors, depending on what is required for an action to be implemented. The \r degree to which an action is effective depends on the extent it reduces climate risk, as well as the extent an action \r achieves its intended goals or outcomes. An adaptation action can sometimes--usually inadvertently--increase risk \r or vulnerability for some or all affected individuals or communities. In some cases, such risk increases will be \r sufficient to call the actions maladaptation. The degree to which an action is just is when its outcomes, the process \r of implementing the action and the process of choosing the action respects principles of distributive, procedural \r [...]"


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"[...] and recognitional justice. Distributive justice refers to the different distributions of benefits and burdens of an "


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"Contributing Authors: Stavana E. Strutz (USA), David D Ackerly (USA), Elizabeth Anderson (USA), \r Philip Boyd (Australia), Jorn Birkmann (Germany), Vanessa Bremerich (Germany), Lluis Brotons \r (Spain), Polly Buotte (USA), Donovan Campbell (Jamaica), Edwin Castellanos (Guatemala), \r Yu-Yun Chen (Taiwan, Province of China), Gueladio Cisse (Mauritania/Switzerland/France), Sarah \r Cooley (USA), Annette Cowie (Australia), Meghnath Dhimal (Nepal), Sami Domisch (Germany), \r Simon Donner (Canada), Errol Douwes (South Africa), Luis E. Escobar (Guatemala/USA), Marta \r Rivera Ferre (Spain), Alexander Flecker (USA), Wendy Foden (South Africa), Rachael V. Gallagher \r (Australia), Aurora Gaxiola (Chile), Adugna Gemeda (Ethiopia), Michael Goulding (USA), \r Kerry-Anne Grey (South Africa), Elena Lopez Gunn (Spain), Susan Harrison (USA), Jeff Hicke (USA), \r Nathalie Jeanne Marie Hilmi (Monaco/France), Gladys Barragan Jason (France), David A. Keith \r [...]"


id: 103e23715e7f7b6e79d3a5cecb1a5a9
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"[...] (Australia), Rachel Bezner Kerr (USA/Canada), Benjamin M. Kraemer (USA/Germany), Simone \r Langhans (Switzerland), Rodel Lasco (Philippines), Andrew Latimer (USA), Robert Lempert (USA), \r Salvador E. Lluch-Cota (Mexico), Julie Loisel (Canada, USA), Brendan Mackey (Australia), Paulina \r Martinetto (Argentina), Robert Matthews (UK), Timon McPhearson (USA), Mette Mauritzen \r (Norway), Guy Midgley (South Africa), Erin Mordecai (USA), Francisco Moreira (Portugal), \r Aditi Mukherji (India), Isla Myers-Smith (UK/USA), Gert-Jan Nabuurs (the Netherlands), Henry \r Neufeldt (Denmark/Germany), James Pearce-Higgins (UK), Gretta Pecl (Australia), Roque Pedace \r (Argentina), A. Townsend Peterson (USA), Dieter Piepenburg (Germany), Julio C. Postigo (Peru/\r USA), Juan Pulhin (Philippines), Marie-Fanny Racault (UK/France), Joacim Rocklov (Germany/\r Sweden), Joeri Rogelj (UK/Belgium), Bjorn Rost (Germany), Marina Romanello (UK/Argentina/\r [...]"


id: b42e00be1b485c5e5324055048113e2a
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"[...] Italy), Angela Gallego-Sala (Spain/UK), Daniela Schmidt (UK/Germany), David Schoeman \r (Australia), Nathalie Seddon (UK), Jan C. Semenza (Italy), Michael C. Singer (France/UK), Pramod \r Kumar Singh (India), Jasper Slingsby (South Africa), Pete Smith (UK), Raman Sukumar (India), \r Maria Cristina Tirado (USA/Spain), Christopher Trisos (South Africa), Merritt Turetsky (USA), Beth \r Turner (Canada), Maarten van Aalst (the Netherlands), Kenneth Young (USA)."


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"Fire seasons have lengthened on one-quarter of vegetated areas \r since 1979 as a result of increasing temperature, aridity and drought \r (medium confidence). Field evidence shows that anthropogenic \r climate change increased area burned by wildfire above natural \r levels in western North America in the period 1984-2017: \r a doubling above natural for the western USA and 11  times \r higher than natural in one extreme year in British Columbia \r (high confidence). In the Amazon, the Arctic, Australia and parts of \r Africa and Asia, burned area has increased, consistent with, although \r not formally attributed to, anthropogenic climate change. Wildfires \r generate up to one-third of ecosystem carbon emissions globally, \r a feedback that exacerbates climate change (high confidence). \r Deforestation, draining of peatlands, agricultural expansion or \r abandonment, fire suppression, and inter-decadal cycles such as the El \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"[...] Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can exert a stronger influence than \r climate change on increasing or decreasing wildfire in some regions \r {2.4.4.2; Table 2.3; Table SM2.1; FAQ 2.3}. Increase in wildfire from the \r levels to which ecosystems are adapted degrades vegetation, habitat \r for biodiversity, water supplies and other key aspects of the integrity \r of ecosystems and their ability to provide services for people (high \r confidence). {2.4.3.1, 2.4.4.2, 2.4.4.3, 2.4.4.4; Table 2.3; Table SM2.1}"


id: f9eca23412aec809619475fa1e39d2d6
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"Since AR5, biome shifts and structural changes within \r ecosystems have been detected at an increasing number \r of locations, consistent with climate change and increasing \r atmospheric CO2 (high confidence). New studies are documenting \r the changes that were projected in prior IPCC reports have now been \r observed, including upward shifts in the forest/alpine tundra ecotone, \r northward shifts in the deciduous/boreal forest ecotones, increased \r woody vegetation in the sub-Arctic tundra and shifts in the thermal \r habitat in lakes (high confidence). A combination of changes in grazing, \r browsing, fire, climate and atmospheric CO2 is leading to observed \r woody encroachment into grasslands and savannah, consistent \r with projections from process-based models driven by precipitation, \r atmospheric CO2 and wildfires (high confidence) {2.4.3; Table  2.3; \r Table SM2.1; Box 2.1; Figure Box 2.1.1; Table Box 2.1.1}. There is high \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] agreement between the projected changes in earlier reports and the \r recent trends observed for areas of increased tree death in temperate \r and boreal forests and woody encroachment in savannas, grasslands \r and tundra {2.5.4; Box  2.1; Figure Box  2.1.1; Table Box  2.1.1}. \r Observed changes impact the structure, functioning and resilience of \r ecosystems as well as ecosystem services, such as climate regulation \r (high confidence) {2.3; 2.4.2; 2.4.3; 2.4.4, 2.5.4, Figure 2.11, Table 2.5, \r Box 2.1; Figure Box 2.1.1; Table Box 2.1.1}."


id: 29692dcd14be3c2b47d8692876a38132
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4504
content:
"Species are the fundamental unit of ecosystems, and the \r increasing risk of local losses of species increases the risks of \r reduced ecosystem integrity, functioning and resilience with \r increasing warming (high confidence). As species become rare, their \r role in the functioning of the ecosystem diminishes (high confidence). \r Loss of species locally reduces the ability of an ecosystem to provide \r services and lowers its resilience to climate change (high confidence). \r At 1.58degC GSAT warming, >10% of species are projected to become \r endangered (median estimate, with \"endangered\" equating to a high \r risk of extinction, sensu IUCN), and at 2.07degC this rises to >20% of \r species, representing a high and very high risk of biodiversity loss, \r respectively (medium confidence) {2.5.4; Figure  2.8b, Figure  2.11; \r Table 2.5; Table SM2.5}. Biodiversity loss is projected for more regions \r with increasing warming, and will be worst in northern South America, \r [...]"


id: d4eafcdc8bec4fedd166c3f8a2d1f488
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34777
content:
"[...] southern Africa, most of Australia and at northern high latitudes \r (medium confidence) {2.5.1.3; Figure 2.6}."


id: a32f208b445937cfa93c995fc7a0ccb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25920
content:
"Extinction of species is an irreversible impact of climate change, \r with increasing risk as global temperatures rise (very high \r confidence). The median values for percentage of species at very \r high risk of extinction (categorized as \"critically endangered\" by IUCN \r Red List categories)(IUCN, 2001) are 9% at 1.5degC rise in GSAT, 10% \r at 2degC, 12% at 3.0degC, 13% at 4degC and 15% at 5degC (high confidence), \r with the likely range of estimates having a maximum of 14% at \r 1.5degC and rising to a maximum of 48% at 5degC (Figure 2.7). Among \r the groups containing the largest numbers of species at a very high \r risk of extinction for mid-levels of warming (3.2degC) are: invertebrates \r (15%, and specifically pollinators at 12%), amphibians (11% overall, \r but salamanders are at 24%) and flowering plants (10%). All groups \r fare substantially better at lower warming of 2degC, with extinction \r projections reducing to <3% for all groups, except salamanders that \r [...]"


id: dcdc2f48c544f33a9b2650ceddcb7389
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36117
content:
"[...] reduced to 7% (medium confidence) (Figure  2.8a). Even the lowest \r estimates of species' extinctions (median of 9% at 1.5degC rise GSAT') \r are 1000  times the natural background rates. Projected species' \r extinctions at future global warming levels are consistent with \r projections from AR4, but assessed for many more species with much \r greater geographic coverage and a broader range of climate models.\r {2.5.1.3; Figure 2.6; Figure 2.7; Figure 2.8; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in \r Chapter 17; Cross-Chapter Paper 1}"


id: 545063613e9b81d2352a5c26f16648a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12111
content:
"There is new evidence that species can persist in refugia where \r conditions are locally cooler, when populations of the same \r species may be declining elsewhere (high confidence) {2.6.2}.\r Protecting refugia, for example, where soils remain wet during drought \r or fire risk is reduced, and in some cases creating cooler micro-climates, \r are promising adaptation measures {2.6.3; 2.6.5; Cross-Chapter Paper \r 1; CCP5.2.1}. There is also new evidence that species can persist locally \r because of plasticity including changes in phenology or behavioural \r changes that move an individual into cooler micro-climates, and \r genetic adaptation may allow species to persist for longer than might \r be expected from local climatic changes (high confidence) {2.4.2.6; \r 2.4.2.8, 2.6.1}. There is no evidence to indicate that these mechanisms \r will prevent global extinctions of rare, very localised species already \r near their climatic limits or species inhabiting climate/habitat zones \r [...]"


id: 3d853d8ff442d68dd7d7c9790284f9a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7997
content:
"[...] that are disappearing (high confidence). {2.4.2.8, 2.5.1, 2.5.3.1, 2.5.4, \r 2.6.1, 2.6.2, 2.6.5}"


id: 5b0797909172a69753db692dae89d095
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13266
content:
"Natural ecosystems can provide the storage and sequestration of \r carbon at the same time as providing multiple other ecosystem \r services, including EbA (high confidence), but there are risks \r of maladaptation and environmental damage from some \r approaches to land-based mitigation (high confidence). Plantation, \r single-species forests in areas which would not naturally support forest, \r including savanna, natural grasslands and temperate peatlands, and \r replacing native tropical forests on peat soils, have destroyed local \r biodiversity and created a range of problems regarding water supply, \r food supply, fire risk and GHG emissions. Large-scale deployment of \r bioenergy, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) \r through dedicated herbaceous or woody bioenergy crops and non-native \r production forests, can damage ecosystems directly or through increasing \r competition for land, with substantial risks to biodiversity. {2.6.3, 2.6.5, \r [...]"


id: f3a884f9e34d6afb6215628c29a2c861
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40240
content:
"[...] 2.6.6, 2.6.7; Box  2.2; Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this chapter; \r CCP7.3.2; Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5}"


id: 1779b0d3fb08ad086ae009391327ea7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1344
content:
"We provide assessments of observed and projected impacts of climate \r change across species, biomes (vegetation types), ecosystems and \r ecosystem services, highlighting the processes that are emerging \r on a global scale. Where sufficient evidence exists, differences in \r biological responses across regions, taxonomic groups or types of \r ecosystems are presented, particularly when such differences provide \r meaningful insights into current or potential future autonomous or \r human-mediated adaptations. Human interventions that might build \r the resilience of ecosystems and minimise the negative impacts of \r climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are assessed. \r Such interventions include adaptation strategies and programmes to \r support biodiversity conservation and Ecosystem-based Adaptation \r (EbA). The assessments were done in the context of the Convention on \r Biological Diversity (CBD) and sustainable development goals (SDGs), \r [...]"


id: 14fea91901619ad402e4b0640c4acd9a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 909
content:
"[...] whose contributions to climate resilient development (CRD) pathways \r are assessed. This chapter highlights both the successes and failures of \r adaptation attempts and considers potential synergies and conflicts \r with land-based climate change mitigation. Knowledge gaps and \r sources of uncertainty are included to encourage additional research."


id: 68b4a112cffeb33267776e69cb058be2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15690
content:
"Species diversity and ecosystem function influence each other \r reciprocally, while the latter forms the necessary basis for ecosystem \r services (Hooper et al., 2012; Mokany et al., 2016). Drivers of impacts \r on biodiversity, ecosystem function and ecosystem services have been \r assessed in reports by the IPCC, the Food and Agriculture Organization \r (FAO), the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem \r Services (IPBES) and the Global Environmental Outlook (Settele et al., \r 2014; FAO, 2018; IPBES, 2018b; IPBES, 2018e; IPBES, 2018c; IPBES, \r 2018d; IPBES, 2019; UNEP, 2019; Secretariat of the Convention on \r Biological Diversity, 2020). Most recently, the IPCC Special Report on \r Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) provided an assessment on land \r degradation and desertification, GHG emissions and food security in \r the context of global warming (IPCC, 2019c), and the IPBES-IPCC joint \r report on biodiversity and climate change provided a synthesis of the \r [...]"


id: 2ec3c3ac6a8113063fbd400ca6dbfe7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5505
content:
"[...] current understanding of the interactions, synergies and feedbacks \r between biodiversity and climate change (Portner et  al., 2021). This \r chapter builds on and expands the results of these assessments."


id: a65b6f1764c5c156f627c56a366ed7d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26485
content:
"Previous reports highlighted the possibility of new ecosystem states \r stemming from shifts in thermal regimes, species composition, and \r energy and matter flows (Settele et  al., 2014; Shin et  al., 2019). \r Projecting such \"tipping points\" (see Glossary Appendix II) has \r been identified in previous reports as a challenge since monitoring \r programmes, field studies, and ecosystem and biodiversity modelling \r tools do not capture the underlying species-species and species-\r climate interactions sufficiently well to identify how biological \r interactions within and across trophic levels may amplify or dampen \r shifts in ecosystem states (Settele et al., 2014; Shin et al., 2019). Building \r on these previous analyses and the recent literature, Chapter 2 of AR6 \r provides new insights compared to those of previous assessments by \r (i) emphasising freshwater aspects and the interlinkages between \r freshwater and terrestrial systems, (ii) assessing more clearly the link \r [...]"


id: aad4b4a35cda47775295081bbf56061
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27281
content:
"[...] between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, (iii) assessing the \r impacts associated with climate change mitigation scenarios versus \r those of climate change including interactions with adaptation, and \r (iv) where possible, places findings in the context of the United Nations \r (UN) SDGs 2030 and services for human societies."


id: b812d677e2712f33b3f211717dd7038e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29603
content:
"Overall confidence in attributing biological changes to climate change \r can be increased in multiple ways (Parmesan et al., 2013), four of which \r we list here. First, confidence rises when the time span of biological \r records is long, such that decadal trends in climate can be compared \r with decadal trends in biological response, and long-term trends can be \r statistically distinguished from natural variability. Second, confidence \r can be increased by examining a large geographic area, which tends \r to diminish the effects of local confounding factors (Parmesan et al., \r 2013; Daskalova et  al., 2021). Third, confidence is increased when \r there is experimental or empirical evidence of a mechanistic link \r between particular climate metrics and a biological response. Fourth, \r confidence is increased when particular fingerprints of climate change \r are documented that uniquely implicate climate change as the causal \r [...]"


id: a4797d70d3b7010001c7754a8fe38cf9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26150
content:
"[...] driver of the biological change (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). These \r conditions constitute multiple lines of evidence, which, when they \r converge, can provide very high confidence that climate change is the \r causal driver of an observed change in a particular biological species \r or system (Parmesan et al., 2013)."


id: eb9bfb645dd02a1bdcc397a29b1ec680
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38818
content:
"When anthropogenic climate change affects ecosystems, it can also \r affect ecosystem services for people. Climate change connects to \r ecosystem services by means of three links, i.e., climate change-\r species-ecosystems-ecosystem services. This chapter assesses these \r connections via all three links when end-to-end published scientific \r analyses are available for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. \r This type of robust evidence exists for some key ecosystem services \r (Section  2.5.3, 2.5.4), and is assessed in specific report sections: \r biodiversity habitat creation and maintenance (Sections  2.4, 2.5), \r regulation of detrimental organisms and biological processes \r (Sections 2.4.2.3, 2.4.2.7, 2.4.4, 2.5.3, 2.6.4, Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS \r in this chapter), regulation of climate through ecosystem feedbacks in \r terms of carbon storage (Sections 2.4.4.4, 2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.4, 2.5.3.5) \r and albedo (Section  2.5.3.5) and the provision of freshwater from \r [...]"


id: 937581faef91c7b8e7ea7a96bfe98623
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23146
content:
"Important factors that may confound or obscure effects of climate \r change are the presence of invasive species, changes in land use \r (LULCC) and, in freshwater systems, eutrophication (IPCC, 2019a). The \r temporal and spatial scale of studies also affects estimates of impacts. \r The most extreme published estimates of biological change tend to \r be derived from smaller areas and/or shorter time frames (Daskalova \r et al., 2021); a recent large global analysis of data for 12,415 species \r found that differences in study methodology accounted for most of the \r explained variance in reported range shifts (Lenoir et al., 2020). The \r importance of LULCC is frequently stressed, but there is a paucity of \r studies actually quantifying the relative effects of climate change and \r LULCC on species and communities. (Sirami et al., 2017) found only 13 \r such studies: four concluded that effects of LULCC overrode those of \r [...]"


id: a61dc9b8a67575e81a31ee575e12b933
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26446
content:
"[...] climate change, four found that the two drivers independently affected \r different species and five found that they acted in synergy."


id: eedf3787c1732135d9ca64f54ae6548
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39398
content:
"While the major climate hazards at the global level are generally well \r described with high confidence, there is less understanding about the \r importance of hazards on ecosystems when they are superimposed \r (Allen et al., 2010; Anderegg et al., 2015; Seidl et al., 2017; Dean et al., \r 2018), and the outcomes are difficult to quantify in future projections \r (Handmer et al., 2012). Simultaneous or sequential events (coincident \r or compounding events) can lead to an extreme event or impact, even \r if each event is not in themselves extreme (Denny et al., 2009; Hinojosa \r et al., 2019). For example, the compounding effects of SLR, extreme \r coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow can substantially increase \r flooding hazard and impacts on freshwater systems (Moftakhari et al., \r 2017). On land, changing rainfall patterns and repeated heat waves \r may interact with biological factors such as altered plant growth \r [...]"


id: 80605890787de8f30d8784ad463af423
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19715
content:
"[...] and nutrient allocation under elevated CO2, affecting herbivore rates \r and insect outbreaks leading to the widespread dieback of some \r forests (e.g., in Australian eucalypt forests) (Gherlenda et  al., 2016; \r Hoffmann et  al., 2019a). Risk assessments typically only consider a \r single climate hazard with no changing variability, thereby potentially \r underestimating the actual risk (Milly et al., 2008; Sadegh et al., 2018; \r Zscheischler et al., 2018; Terzi et al., 2019; Stockwell et al., 2020)."


id: 1bf61a8274ad3c32a51b13b1a55e5c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2104
content:
"Extreme events are a natural and important part of many ecosystems, \r and many organisms have adapted to cope with long-term \r and short-term climate variability within the disturbance regime \r experienced during their evolutionary history (high confidence). \r However, climate changes, disturbance regime changes and the \r magnitude and frequency of extreme events such as floods, droughts, \r cyclones, heat waves and fire have increased in many regions (high \r confidence). These disturbances affect ecosystem functioning, \r biodiversity and ecosystem services (high confidence), but are, in \r general, poorly captured in impact models (Albrich et  al., 2020b), \r although this should improve as higher-resolution climate models \r that better capture smaller-scale processes and extreme events \r become available (Seneviratne et  al., 2021). Extreme events pose \r huge challenges for EbA (IPCC, 2012). Ecosystem functionality, on \r which such adaptation measures rely, may be altered or destroyed \r [...]"


id: 41e7c247294f9504edb4e5cd7ed9eabf
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8787
content:
"For example, strong dispersers are less at risk, while species with low \r dispersal ability, small ranges and long lifespans (e.g., many plants, \r especially trees, many amphibians and some small mammals) are \r more at risk (IPCC, 2014b; Hamann et  al., 2015) . This is likely to \r favour generalist and invasive species, altering species composition, \r ecosystem structure and function (Clavel et  al., 2011; Buchi and \r Vuilleumier, 2014). The ability to track suitable climates is substantially \r reduced by habitat fragmentation and human modifications of the \r landscape such as dams on rivers and urbanisation (high confidence). \r Freshwater systems are particularly at risk of rapid warming, given \r their naturally fragmented distribution. Velocity of changes in surface \r temperature of inland standing waters globally was estimated as \r being 3.5 +- 2.3 km per decade from 1861 to 2005. From 2006 to \r 2099, this is projected to increase from 8.7 +- 5.5 km (representative \r [...]"


id: 9622fdfdd6f78d6ceb39acfd964559fa
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23607
content:
"Despite recent improvements in observational studies and climate \r modelling (Santanello et al., 2015; Stegehuis et al., 2015; PaiMazumder \r and Done, 2016; Basara and Christian, 2018; Knelman et al., 2019), \r the potential to quantify or infer formal causal relationships between \r multiple drivers and/or hazards remains limited (Zscheischler and \r Seneviratne, 2017; Kleinman et  al., 2019; Miralles et  al., 2019; \r Yokohata et al., 2019; Harris et al., 2020). The mechanisms underlying \r the response are difficult to identify (e.g., responses to heat stress, \r drought and insects), effects vary among species and at different life \r stages, and an initial stress may influence the response to further \r stress (Nolet and Kneeshaw, 2018). Additionally, hazards such as \r drought are often exacerbated by societal, industrial and agricultural \r water demands, requiring more sophisticated modelling of the \r physical and human systems (Mehran et al., 2017; Wan et al., 2017). \r [...]"


id: 9b01cebe8a90cc228a9e2e5ae214b78d
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24520
content:
"[...] Observations of past compound events may not provide reliable \r guides as to how future events may evolve, because human activity \r and recent climate change continue to interact to influence both \r system functioning and a climate state not previously experienced \r (Seneviratne et al., 2021)"


id: b66166e4a1933b8ade09145bea2ba39f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29303
content:
"Analysis of river flows from 7250 observatories around the world \r covering the years 1971-2010 and identified spatially complex \r patterns, with reductions in northeastern Brazil, southern Australia \r and the Mediterranean, and increases in northern Europe (medium \r evidence, medium agreement) (Gudmundsson et  al., 2021). More \r than half of global rivers undergo periodic drying that reduces river \r connectivity (medium evidence, medium agreement). Increased \r frequency and intensity of droughts may cause perennial rivers to \r become intermittent and intermittent rivers to disappear (medium \r evidence, medium agreement), threatening freshwater fish in habitats \r already characterised by heat and droughts (Datry et al., 2016; Schneider \r et  al., 2017; Jaric et  al., 2019). In high-altitude/latitude streams, \r reduced glacier and snowpack extent, earlier snowmelt and altered \r precipitation patterns, attributed to climate change, have increased \r [...]"


id: 85b04aa129963efee40cf658e2cc6999
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20663
content:
"[...] flow intermittency (Siebers et al., 2019; Gudmundsson et al., 2021). \r Patterns in flow regimes can be directly linked to a variety of processes \r shaping freshwater biodiversity, so any climate change-induced \r changes in flow regimes and river connectivity are expected to alter "


id: fc1a8c7437104de72eaa52d839e81d27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41716
content:
"Studies since AR5 have confirmed ongoing and accelerating loss of \r lake and river ice in the Northern Hemisphere (robust evidence, high \r agreement) (Figure 2.4). In recent decades, systems have been freezing \r later in winter and thawing earlier in spring, reducing ice duration by \r >2 weeks per year and leading to an increasing numbers of years with a \r loss of perennial ice cover, intermittent ice cover or even an absence of \r ice (Adrian et al., 2009; Kirillin et al., 2012; Paquette et al., 2015; Adrian \r et al., 2016; Park et al., 2016; Roberts et al., 2017; Sharma et al., 2019). \r The global extent of river ice declined by 25% between 1984 and 2018 \r (Yang et al., 2020). This trend has been more pronounced at higher \r latitudes, consistent with enhanced polar warming (large geographic \r coverage) (Du et al., 2017). Empirical long-term and remote-sensing \r data gathered in an increasingly large number of freshwater systems \r [...]"


id: 8e054676313b817e7a061b6284595e7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22181
content:
"Since AR5, numerous drastic short-term responses have been observed \r in lakes and rivers, to both expected seasonal extreme events and \r unexpected supra-seasonal extremes extending over multiple seasons. \r Consequences for ecosystem functioning are not well understood \r (Bogan et al., 2015; Death et al., 2015; Stockwell et al., 2020). Increasing \r frequencies of severe floods and droughts attributed to climate change \r are major threats for river ecosystems (Peters et al., 2016; Alfieri et al., \r 2017). While extreme floods cause massive physical disturbance, \r moderate floods can have positive effects, providing woody debris \r that contributes to habitat complexity and diversity, flushing fine \r sediments, dissolving organic carbon and providing important food \r sources from terrestrial origins (Peters et al., 2016; Talbot et al., 2018). \r Droughts reduce river habitat diversity and connectivity, threatening \r aquatic species, especially in deserts and arid regions (Bogan et al., \r [...]"


id: 8d0c7359785e2b589d35e3cb3db882d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22006
content:
"Projections of lake water storage are limited by the absence of reliable, \r long-term, homogenous and spatially resolved hydrologic observations \r (Hegerl et al., 2015). This uncertainty is reflected in the widely divergent \r projections in response to future climate changes in individual lakes \r (Angel and Kunkel, 2010; MacKay and Seglenieks, 2012; Malsy et al., \r 2012; Notaro et al., 2015) . Selecting models that perform well when \r comparing hindcasted to observed past water storage variation often \r does little to reduce water storage projection uncertainty (Angel and \r Kunkel, 2010). This wide range of potential changes complicates lake \r management. For information on observed and projected changes in \r the global water cycle and hydrological regimes for streams, lakes, \r wetland, groundwater and their implications on water quality and \r societies, see Chapter 4, this report, and (Douville et al., 2021). For the \r [...]"


id: 7182e45ac48eb982036513cf25b459bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17219
content:
"[...] role of weather and climate extremes on the global water cycle, see \r (Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 9e802e6cf953b7f43077e461c14bbfc6
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"Increases in the frequency and magnitudes of extreme events, attributed to anthropogenic climate change by WGI (IPCC, 2021a), are now \r causing profound negative effects across all realms of the world (marine, terrestrial, freshwater and polar) (medium confidence) (Fox-Kemper \r et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021) (Sections 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3.5, 2.4.2.2, Chapter 3, Chapters 9-12, this report). Changes to population \r abundance, species distributions, local extirpations, and global extinctions are leading to long-term, potentially irreversible shifts in the \r composition, structure and function of natural systems (medium confidence) (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Harris et al., 2018a; Maxwell \r et al., 2019; Smale et al., 2019). These effects have widespread ramifications for ecosystems and the services they provide--physical \r habitat, erosion control, carbon storage, nutrient cycling and water quality--with knock-on effects for tourism, fisheries, forestry and other \r [...]"


id: 7ae80a36ff134f52971d75a1b77a2efc
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"[...] natural resources (2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.3, 2.5.4) (Kaushal et al., 2018; Heinze et al., 2021; Portner et al., 2021)."


id: 348396cfdf3ef2b6cae5765dc574e95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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vector_id: 6475
content:
"Consensus is emerging that anthropogenic climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of recent marine heat waves (MHWs) \r (medium confidence) (Oliver et al., 2018; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). A widespread MHW occurred in the northeast Pacific in 2013-2015, \r with upper ocean temperature anomalies of up to 6.2degC relative to 2002-2012 (Gentemann et al., 2017). This event, termed the 'Blob', \r enhanced surface water stratification, decreasing nutrient supply, primary and community production and leading to widespread changes \r to open ocean and coastal ecosystems, with geographical shifts of key species across trophic levels, mass strandings of marine mammals, \r seabird mortalities and the closure of commercially important fisheries (Cavole et al., 2016; Piatt et al., 2020). The MHW reappeared in \r 2019 ('Blob 2.0') (Amaya et al., 2020), with similarly high temperature anomalies extending from Alaska to California, but the ecological \r [...]"


id: ecfb4b574240e05716535f678b60f64a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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content:
"[...] effects of this event are expected to differ because the Blob originated in winter, and Blob2.0 intensified in summer (Amaya et al., \r 2020). Modelling suggests rapid shifts in the geographic distributions of important fish species in response to MHWs (Cheung and \r Frolicher, 2020), with projected decreased biomass and distributional shifts of fish at least four times faster and larger than the effects \r of decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 (high confidence) (Cheung and Frolicher, 2020). MHWs can \r also dramatically increase CH4 emissions from oceans, a significant positive feedback to global warming (see also Chapter 3, this report) \r (Borges et al., 2019)."


id: 1c229989bcbd58786e8ce9185a0aa27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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vector_id: 2136
content:
"The Arctic region is warming more than twice as fast as the global mean, and polar organisms and ecosystems are likely to be particularly \r vulnerable to heat waves due to their specific thermal niches and physiological thresholds and also the lack of poleward 'refugia' (high \r confidence). The consequences of MHWs are exacerbated by concomitant sea ice melting and the freshening of surface waters, leading \r to secondary effects due to osmotic stress and failing pH homeostasis. Since sea ice-associated organisms are often critical components \r of polar food chains, cascading effects up to the top predators are expected. In 2015-2016, a MHW occurred in the Gulf of Alaska/Bering \r Sea (Walsh et al., 2018) which was unprecedented in terms of surface temperatures and ocean heat content, geographical extent, depth \r range and persistence, impacting the entire marine food web. Persistent warming favoured some phytoplankton species and triggered \r [...]"


id: 80f53446ab6f0a28ee5cbd73aa952d7c
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content:
"[...] one of the largest algal blooms recorded in this region, with concomitant oyster farm closures due to uncommon paralytic shellfish\u0002poisoning events (Walsh et  al., 2018). There were also massive die-offs of common guillemots (Uria aalge) and puffins (Fratercula \r cirrhata), attributed to starvation resulting from warming-induced effects on food supply (Jones et al., 2019). A 2017 survey found a 71% \r decline in the abundance of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) since 2015, likely due to an increase in metabolic demand and reduced \r prey supply during the MHWs (Barbeaux et al., 2020)."


id: 4b322217c401068131ee98f80c913396
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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vector_id: 10475
content:
"Heat waves, storms and floods affect the thermal regime and biogeochemical functioning of lakes and rivers (Woolway and Merchant, 2017; \r Vicente-Serrano et al., 2020). Extreme heat waves lead to abnormally high water temperatures (Till et al., 2019) and reduce the mixing of \r lakes (Woolway et al., 2021), causing a decrease in oxygen and deep-water oxygen renewal (Zhang et al., 2015). Ectotherms such as fish \r and invertebrates are particularly susceptible to such temperature and oxygen stress (Stoks et al., 2014). Their metabolic demands increase \r with rising temperature and a suitable habitat is eroded due to both high temperatures and lower oxygen concentrations in lakes and rivers. \r Till et al. (2019) attributed 502 fish kill events in the Wisconsin lakes (USA) to warmer summers in lakes that experienced abnormally high \r water temperatures. Such events are predicted to double by 2041-2059 and increase four-fold by 2081-2099 compared to historical levels \r [...]"


id: 7c2fb9847f0cf36f2417c14fb415d1c5
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content:
"[...] (Till et al., 2019). This anticipated increase in die-offs may facilitate warm-water fish species displacing cool-water species (Hansen et al., \r 2017; Jennings et al., 2021). Floods mobilise nutrients and sediment, and aid dispersal of invasive species in rivers (Death et al., 2015), while \r drought extremes reduce river connectivity, threatening biodiversity in rivers (section 2.3.3.5) (Tickner et al., 2020)."


id: a137e8dcaedc2a9977f214a07bdf8478
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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vector_id: 25586
content:
"These examples show that the impact of an extreme event is a function of its characteristics and those of the exposed ecosystem. \r The timing, frequency, absolute magnitude and geographic extent of the extreme event, relative to antecedent conditions and the life \r cycle, resistance and resilience of the natural community, all determine the biological response (Figure Cross-Chapter Box Extremes.1) \r (Hillebrand et al., 2018; Gruber et al., 2021). The impact appears to be greater when extreme events occur more frequently, particularly \r when the interval between events is insufficient to allow recovery to previous population sizes (e.g., frequent fires and coral bleaching) \r or coincides with vulnerable life-cycle stages, even when populations are adapted to cope with such disturbances. Events occurring over \r large spatial areas reduce the potential for recolonisation from nearby populations (e.g., regional droughts causing widespread declines). \r [...]"


id: ad3c31c2233b79d5599812727ed4fd35
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vector_id: 27716
content:
"[...] Often the magnitude of extreme events exceeds historical levels, so organisms are less likely to be adapted to them, particularly when \r several extremes coincide (e.g., high water temperature and drought) (Duke et al., 2017). When hazards occur simultaneously (compound \r events), the impacts of extremes can be substantially aggravated, triggering a cascade of effects in ecosystems (Gruber et al., 2021)."


id: 9c1bc549c63e5dc08f7588582e776ab1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24721
content:
"Several characteristics increase vulnerability: low or narrow thermal tolerance, high habitat specificity, low dispersal ability, long \r generation times, low competitive ability and life-cycle constraints that limit recovery or recolonisation. Populations living close to one \r or more limiting factors near range edges are also vulnerable (Arafeh-Dalmau et al., 2019). Understanding these characteristics can \r inform management intervention to aid recovery following an extreme event. For instance, knowledge of the flying fox's physiological \r temperature threshold led to successful interventions, including misting populations to reduce mortality (Mo and Roache, 2020), and the \r development of a 'heat stress forecaster', an online tool which uses weather forecasts to identify roosts at risk of extreme heat events \r (Ratnayake et  al., 2019). This early warning system increases the preparedness of wildlife management and conservation agencies, \r [...]"


id: 9fd008b82895f3e40bb6aabb6628c8f
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vector_id: 25327
content:
"[...] enabling efficient allocation of management resources towards the locations that are likely to be the most affected."


id: 98ebb0b209c9e4544bbfa74ac241d385
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24118
content:
"By the time of AR5, >4000 species with long-term observational \r data had been studied in the context of climate change (Parmesan, \r 2006; Parmesan and Hanley, 2015). Since then, thousands of new \r studies and additional species have been added, leading to higher \r confidence in climate change attribution (Table 2.2) (Scheffers et al., \r 2016; Wiens, 2016; Cohen et al., 2018; Feeley et al., 2020). Freshwater \r habitats have been under-represented in prior reports, but new \r long-term datasets, coupled with laboratory and field experiments, are \r improving our understanding. This assessment stresses observations \r from lakes and streams. As numbers of studies increase and data is \r increasingly extracted from areas with high LULCC, attribution is more \r difficult as habitat loss and fragmentation are known major drivers \r of changes in terrestrial and freshwater species (Ramsar Convention \r on Wetlands, 2018; IPBES, 2019; Tickner et  al., 2020). Due to the \r [...]"


id: 633a0ac3fbf775261c5dab18a7b8ae20
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content:
"[...] overwhelming volume of literature, the assessments for chapter 2 \r concentrates on results from large continental or global-scale reviews \r and meta-analyses. Most of the assessment of studies conducted in \r individual countries can be found in Regional chapters, but this chapter \r does include studies across very large countries or political entities \r that occupy much of a continent (e.g., Canada, the USA, Australia or \r Europe), or studies that provide rare or uniquely-relevant information."


id: 4339576fc8fa530a0ccda88c208e5ee1
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vector_id: 9038
content:
"During their range shifts, forest pests remain climate-sensitive. For \r example, the distribution of the western spruce budworm is limited at its \r warm range edges by the adverse effects of mild winters on overwinter \r survival, and at its cool range by the ability to arrive at a cold-resistant \r stage before winter arrives (Regniere and Nealis, 2019). We might \r therefore expect tree mortality from insect outbreaks to be most severe \r at sites climatically less suitable for the plants, where plants would be \r under more stress. However, (Jaime et al., 2019), using separate species \r distribution models (SDMs) (MaxEnt) for the insects and plants, found \r that observed mortality of Scots pine from bark beetles was highest at \r sites that were most climatically suitable for the trees as well as for the \r insects. In a study of tree mortality in California, bark beetles selectively \r killed highly stressed fir trees, but killed pines according to their size \r [...]"


id: 3b7504f5f23b0e4ca403467dd5c90acf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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vector_id: 7646
content:
"latitudinal 'warm edge' range limits, and were at relatively undisturbed \r sites stated by the authors to be under increasing climatic stress. By \r this criterion, climate-caused local extinctions were widespread among \r plants and animals globally, detected in 47% of 976 species examined. \r The percentage of species suffering these extinctions was higher in the \r Tropics (55%) than in temperate habitats (39%), higher in freshwater \r (74%) than in marine (51%) or terrestrial (46%) habitats, and higher \r in animals (50%) than in plants (39%). The difference between plants \r and animals varied with latitude; in the temperate zone, a much higher \r proportion of animals than plants suffered range-limit extinctions \r (38.6% of 207 animal species vs. 8.6% of 105 plants, P < 0.0001) \r while at tropical sites, local extinction rates were (nonsignificantly) \r higher in plants (59% of 155 species) than in animals (52% of 349 \r [...]"


id: 397b4cfc3e532dba15a18c0ad38ac137
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vector_id: 7324
content:
"[...] species), the reverse of their temperate-zone relationship. Rates varied \r across animal groups from 35% in mammals, to 43% in birds, 56% in \r insects and 59% in fish (Wiens, 2016)."


id: 63c4872e6b819c92925694be482738db
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14844
content:
"Freshwater population extinctions are mainly due to habitat loss, \r the introduction of alien species, pollution, over-harvesting (Gozlan \r et  al., 2019; IPBES, 2019) and climate change-induced epidemic \r diseases (Pounds et al., 2006)(see Section 2.4.2.7.1). Climate warming, \r particularly through the intensification and severity of droughts, \r contributes to the disappearance of small ponds which hold rare and \r endemic species (Bagella et al., 2016). Systematic data on the extent \r and biology of small ponds is, however, lacking on the global scale. \r Extreme heat waves can lead to large local fish kills in lakes (see \r Section 2.3.3.5), when water temperature and oxygen concentrations \r surpass critical thresholds and threatening cold-water fish and \r amphibians (Thompson et  al., 2012). Evidence of a local extinction \r of some invertebrate species with a 1.4degC-1.7degC rise in mean \r annual stream winter temperature from 1981 to 2005 was reported \r [...]"


id: 82e0fcff9e28b3137a66b6abd8dcceca
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vector_id: 20157
content:
"[...] in Abrahams et  al. (2013). Population declines of specialist species \r in glacier-fed streams, such as the non-biting midge Diamesa davisi \r (Chironomidae), can be attributed to climate-change-driven glacier \r retreat (Cauvy-Fraunie and Dangles, 2019), and the flatworm Crenobia \r alpina (Planariidae) has been reported as locally extinct in the Welsh \r Llyn Brianne river (Durance and Ormerod, 2010; Larsen et al., 2018)."


id: 1bd78f9890e45bed3f92f16f73eeff83
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2083
content:
"Disappearances of local populations within a species range are more \r frequent and better documented than whole species' extinctions, \r and attribution to climate change is possible for sites with minimal \r confounding non-climatic stressors. Changes of temperature extremes \r are often more important to these local extinction rates than changes of \r mean annual temperature (high confidence) (see Sections 2.3.1, 2.3.2, \r 2.3.3.5, 2.4.2.6, Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in this chapter) (Parmesan \r et al., 2013). A global meta-analysis of 236 species of birds, mammals, \r amphibians, fish, invertebrates and plants across 132 independent \r studies found that changes in population abundances were strongly \r related to temperature variability globally, and significantly related \r to precipiation variability in lower latitudes (Pearce-Higgins et  al., \r 2015). In a global study of 538 diverse plant and animal species, sites \r with local extinctions were associated with smaller changes of mean \r [...]"


id: 19b64f6ca51bc6465d047730fd8ca7ea
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1724
content:
"[...] annual temperature but larger and faster changes of hottest yearly \r temperatures than sites where populations persisted (Roman-Palacios \r and Wiens, 2020). Near warm range limits, 44% of species had suffered \r local extinctions. In both temperate and tropical regions, sites with local \r extinction had greater increases in maximum temperatures than those \r without: a Tmax increase of 0.456degC and 0.316degC versus a Tmean increase \r of 0.153degC and 0.061degC for temperate (n = 505 sites) and tropical (n = \r 76 sites), respectively (P < 0.001) (Roman-Palacios and Wiens, 2020)."


id: ef0d7ed50075ae775bcbfaaf13858462
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39426
content:
"Climate change has already caused some species to become extinct and is expected to drive more species to extinction. \r Extinction of species has always occurred in the history of our planet, but human activities are accelerating this \r process, such that the estimated 10% of species that humans have driven to extinction in the past 10,000 years is \r roughly 1,000 times the natural background rate. Recent research predicts that climate change would add to that, \r with estimates that about one-third of all plant and animal species are at high risk of extinction by 2070 if climate \r change continues at its current rate. Species can adapt to some extent to these rapidly changing climate patterns. \r We are seeing changes in behaviour, dispersal to new areas as the climate becomes more suitable, and genetic \r evolution. However, these changes are small, and adaptations are limited. Species that cannot adapt beyond their \r [...]"


id: d34eee64643511d9cffbba8ecea3f340
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34520
content:
"[...] basic climate tolerances (their ability to survive extremes of temperature or rainfall) or successfully reproduce in \r a different climate environment from that in which they have evolved, will simply disappear. In the Arctic, for \r example, the sea ice is melting and, unless there are deep cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, will probably disappear \r in summer within the century. This means that the animals that have evolved to live on sea ice--polar bears and \r some seals--will become extinct soon after the ice disappears."


id: 8a4315b966164a00552aa80dd9c459e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21503
content:
"Extending protected zones and their connectivity. The ability of species to move to new locations and track climate change are \r very limited, particularly when a habitat has been turned into a crop field or a city. To help species move between \r their natural habitats, we can increase the connectedness of protected areas, or simply create small patches or \r corridors of semi-wild nature within a largely agricultural or inhabited region that encourages wildlife to move \r through an area, and in which they are protected from hunting and poisons. These semi-wild protected areas can \r be very small, like the hedgerows between fields in England that provide both a habitat for many flowers, birds \r and insects and corridors to move between larger protected areas. Alternatively, it can just be an abandoned field \r that is now growing 'weeds' and with a ban on use of pesticides or herbicides, hunting or farming. For instance, \r [...]"


id: bca37167fed1ddec07a49d93b43b8701
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30436
content:
"[...] in the USA, private landowners get a tax break by making their land a 'wildlife conservation' area by using no \r pesticide, not cutting weeds too often, putting up brush piles and bird boxes for nesting by mammals and birds, \r and providing a stable water source."


id: 938041f682b32daddb9309b4d988081e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23155
content:
"Physical changes in lakes (see Section  2.3.3) have affected primary \r production (see Section  2.4.4.5.2), algal-bloom formation and \r composition, zooplankton and fish size distribution, and species \r composition (Urrutia-Cordero et al., 2017; Gozlan et al., 2019; Seltmann \r et al., 2019). Declines in the abundance of cold-stenothermal species, \r particularly the Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus), coregonids and smelt, \r and increases in eurythermal fish (e.g., the thermo-tolerant carp \r Cyprinus carpio, common bream, pike perch, roach and shad) have \r been observed in northern temperate lakes associated with warming \r trends (medium evidence, high agreement) (Jeppesen et  al., 2012; \r Jeppesen et al., 2014). These changes increase predation pressure on \r zooplankton and reduce grazing pressure on phytoplankton, which \r may result in higher phytoplankton biomass (De Senerpont Domis \r et al., 2013; Jeppesen et al., 2014; Adrian et al., 2016). Reduction in \r [...]"


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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24506
content:
"[...] lake mixing lowers the concentration of nutrients in the epilimnion and \r may lead to higher silicon-to-phosphorous ratios that negatively affect \r diatom growth (Yankova et al., 2017) or overall primary productivity \r (see Section 2.4.4.5.2)."


id: f6e13b329f1305f9e4570586b84f3103
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40805
content:
"The most common type of community change takes the form of in situ\r decreases in cold-adapted species and increases in warm-adapted \r species (Bowler et  al., 2017; Hughes et  al., 2018; Kuhn and Gegout, \r 2019; Feeley et al., 2020). This process has lead to increases of species \r richness on mountaintops and decreased richness at adjacent lower \r elevations (medium evidence, high agreement) (Forister et  al., 2010; \r Steinbauer et al., 2018). While it is also expected from observed range \r shifts of individual species that species richness should increase along \r tropical/temperate ecotones and along temperate/boreal ecotones, to \r date this has not been well documented. Lewthwaite et al (Lewthwaite \r and Mooers, 2022) documented a small increase in local richness across \r Canada for 265 species of butterflies, but the stronger effect was an \r homogenization across the region, with generalist species generally \r expanding into new sites and leading to lower Beta-diversity (lower \r [...]"


id: 6b7419ee56134a45200e021f67e5bc86
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vector_id: 16204
content:
"[...] diversity among sites). In a study of 66 bumble bee species across North \r America and Europe, Soroye et al (Soroye et al., 2020) did not find the \r expected pattern, with most sites, regardless of latitude, declining in \r species richness, even when individual species benefited from warming \r or increased precipitation at some sites. Observed shifts in community \r composition have consequences for species' interactions. Such indirect \r effects of climate change have been shown to often have greater \r impacts on species than the direct effects of climate itself, particularly \r for higher-level consumers (Cahill et al., 2013; Ockendon et al., 2014)."


id: e9e8d5de0d3846cb60ae5315124fb1ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38505
content:
"Observed effects of climate change on freshwater invertebrates are \r variable (Knouft and Ficklin, 2017). In glacier-fed streams globally, climate \r change has caused community turnover and changes in abundances in \r terms of increased generalist and decreased specialist species (Lencioni, \r 2018; Cauvy-Fraunie and Dangles, 2019). In turn, dragonflies in flowing \r waters, monitored during the warming period from 1988 through \r 2006 in Europe, did not show consistent changes in their distribution \r (Grewe et al., 2013), reviewed in Knouft and Ficklin (2017). Long-term \r trends in the species composition and community structure of stream \r macro-invertebrates, specifically a general trend for decreases in species \r characteristic of cold, fast-flowing waters and increases of thermophilic \r species typical of stagnant or slow-moving waters, have been attributed \r to climate change (robust evidence, high agreement) (Daufresne et al., \r [...]"


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vector_id: 11447
content:
"[...] 2007; Chessman, 2015). A study of 14 geothermal streams reported \r simplified food web structures and shortened pathways of energy flux "


id: e2e736453f27c9304ef3ad9e1fd0e7d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37218
content:
"As climate change is increasing the movements of species into new \r areas, there is concern about how exotic species are being impacted, \r either by becoming invasive or by already invasive species gaining \r even more advantage over native species. Modelling predicts that the \r effects of climate warming on food web structure and stability favour \r the success of invading species (Sentis et al., 2021). Both simulated \r warming experiments (Zettlemoyer et  al., 2019) and long-term \r observations (Willis et  al., 2010) have found phenologies of exotic \r species to respond more adaptively to warming than those of natives; \r in the long-term observations, the success of exotics was attributed \r to their greater phenological responsiveness. In an expert assessment \r of the future relative importance of different drivers of the impacts of \r biological invasions, climate change was named as the most important \r driver in polar regions, second-most important in temperate regions \r [...]"


id: c423d4b99a3831d35d222708812780e8
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31795
content:
"[...] (after trade/transport), and third-most important in the tropics (after \r trade/transport and human demography/migration) (Essl et al., 2020)."


id: 8985e935750bbe1e8a636362100335b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21372
content:
"The rapid rate of the advancement of spring events in the 1990s \r slowed down in the 2000s, and stalled or even reversed in some \r regions (Menzel et al., 2020). Wang et al. (2019) noted, from remote \r sensing, that during the 'global warming hiatus' from 1998 to 2012, \r there were no global trends in either spring green-up or autumn \r colouring. Annual crops, the timing of which is determined by farmers, \r were an exception. When natural systems were advancing fast prior to \r 1998, farmers advanced more slowly, but during the natural 'hiatus', \r farmed crops advanced faster than wild plants and cultivated trees \r (Menzel et al., 2020). In a long (67 years) European time series (Menzel \r et al., 2020), autumn leaf colouring showed delays attributed to winter \r and spring warming in 57% of observations (mean delay of 0.36 days \r per decade); spring and summer phenologies advanced in 89% of \r wild plants, despite decreased winter chilling, with around 60% of \r [...]"


id: 484b46cade31c20914b67ba46720d0e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9932
content:
"[...] trends significant and 'strongly attributable' to winter and spring \r warming; and the growing season lengthened in 84% of cases (mean \r lengthening 0.26 days yr-1) (Table 2.2)."


id: 5ebaf4902b6174795002ad2cced56979
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13955
content:
"However, not all exotic species become invasive. As novel climate \r conditions develop, novel communities made up of new combinations \r of species are emerging as populations and species adapt and shift \r their ranges differentially, not always with negative consequences \r (high confidence) (Dornelas et al., 2014; Evers et al., 2018; Teixeira and \r Fernandes, 2020). Novel communities differ in composition, structure, \r function and evolutionary trajectories, as the proportions of specialists \r and generalists, native, introduced and range-shifting species change \r and species interactions are altered, ultimately affecting ecosystem \r dynamics and functioning (Lurgi et  al., 2012; Hobbs et  al., 2014; \r Heger and van Andel, 2019). The exact nature of novel communities is \r difficult to predict because species-level uncertainties propagate at the \r community level due to ecological interactions (Williams and Jackson, \r 2007). However, observations, experimental mesocosms (Bastazini \r [...]"


id: a5e48434f9befe3461151be2c9643c8a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26408
content:
"[...] et al., 2021), and theoretical models (Lurgi et al., 2012; Sentis et al., \r 2021) provide support that novel communities will continue to emerge \r with climate change (medium confidence)."


id: bf1cbf5d59a464a74bde7b82d89ee5d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30897
content:
"Changes in freshwater systems are consistent with changes in terrestrial \r systems: earlier development of phytoplankton and zooplankton and \r earlier spawning by fish in spring as well as extension of the growing \r season are occurring (robust evidence, high agreement) (Adrian et al., \r 2009; De Senerpont Domis et al., 2013; Adrian et al., 2016; Thackeray et al., \r 2016). Phenological changes in lakes have been related to rising water \r temperatures, reduced ice cover and prolonged thermal stratification \r (increasing evidence and agreement since AR5; very high confidence). \r Crozier and Hutchings (2014) reviewed the phenological changes \r in fish and documented that changes in the timing of migration and \r reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival \r and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. \r The median return time of Atlantic salmon to rivers in Newfoundland \r [...]"


id: 86c1539abe755b5d54c680dd52a7a6c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20871
content:
"[...] and Labrador advanced by 12-21 days over the past decades, associated \r with overall warmer conditions (Dempson et al., 2017)."


id: 39c4b1f8ce47b7b31d26bc02d5476153
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7377
content:
"Table 2.2 |  Global fingerprints of climate change impacts across wild species. (Updated from (Parmesan and Hanley, 2015). For each study for which data were made available, a \r response for an individual species or functional group was classified as (1) no response (i.e., no significant change in the measured trait over time), (2) if a significant change was \r found, the response was classified as either consistent or not consistent with expectations according to local or regional climate trends. Percentages are approximate and estimated \r for the studies as a whole. Individual analyses within the studies may differ. The specific metrics of climate change analysed for associations with biological change vary somewhat \r across studies, but most use changes in local or regional temperatures (e.g., mean monthly T or mean annual T), with some using precipitation metrics (e.g., total annual rainfall). \r [...]"


id: d699b3872ce67b924fa308fe364eec10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35062
content:
"[...] For example, a consistent response would be poleward range shifts in areas that are warming. Probability (P) of getting the observed ratio of consistent-to-not consistent responses \r by chance was <10-13 for (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Root et al., 2003; Root et al., 2005; Poloczanska et al., 2013) and <0.001 for Rosenzweig et al. (2008). The last collumn \r distinguishes studies that were designed for attribution to climate change (e.g. by analysing only long-term data from relatively undisturbed habitats (see section 2.1.3 and 2.4.1)\r (Parmesan et al., 2013; Cramer et al., 2014) from those that analysed all available data, including data from areas highly-impacted by non-climate drivers (e.g. LULCC)."


id: 828590d36bbcbbe091bd90386ed7a524
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20092
content:
"A lack of understanding of physiological constraints and mechanisms \r remains a barrier to predicting many of the ecological effects \r of climate change (Bozinovic et  al., 2011; Vazquez et  al., 2017; \r Gonzalez-Tokman et  al., 2020). Many behavioural, morphological \r and physiological responses are highly species- and context-specific, \r making generalisations difficult (Bodensteiner et  al., 2021). Recent \r advances in mechanistic understanding (from experiments), in \r process-based modelling (including micro-climates and developmental \r processes) (Carter and Janzen, 2021) and in the sophistication of \r niche models (Kearney et  al., 2009) have improved projections, but \r comprehensive tests of geographic patterns and processes in thermal \r tolerance and plasticity are still lacking, with studies limited to a few \r phylogenetically restricted analyses showing mixed results (Gunderson \r and Stillman, 2015). Improved understanding of the mechanistic basis \r [...]"


id: 164cbb29154fde2baa0cffd24bd6d96e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1140
content:
"[...] for observed geographic patterns in thermal tolerance and plasticity \r is needed to identify the physiological limits of species, the potential \r for adaptation and the presence of evolutionary trade-offs, which will \r strongly influence population declines, species range shifts, invasive \r interactions and the success of conservation interventions (Cooke \r et al., 2021; Ryan and Gunderson, 2021)."


id: 11c0c54b65542f0b525365dd146a9282
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 313
content:
"Evidence is weak for a consistent reduction in body size across \r taxonomic groups in terrestrial animals (low confidence) (Siepielski \r et  al., 2019). Decreased body size in warmer climates (as higher \r surface area-to-volume ratios maximise heat loss) is expected, based \r on biogeographic patterns such as Bergmann's rule, but both increases \r and decreases have been documented in mammals, birds, lizards \r and invertebrates and were attributed to climate change (Teplitsky \r and Millien, 2014; Gotanda et  al., 2015; Gardner et  al., 2019; Hill \r et al., 2021). Contrasting patterns (increased body size) may be due \r to short-term modifications in selection pressures (e.g., changes to \r predation and competition), variation in life histories or as a result \r of interactions with climate variables other than temperature (e.g., \r changes to food availability along with rainfall changes) and other \r disturbances (Yom-Tov and Yom-Tov, 2004; Gardner et al., 2019; Wilson \r [...]"


id: 14765ba601b6f74112375e3b8b4c188
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 824
content:
"[...] et  al., 2019) or use of different body size measurements (linear vs. \r volumetric dimensions) (Salewski et al., 2014)."


id: 621e8c65e4b271f1fec937d1dfc3576d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14536
content:
"Several lines of evidence suggest the evolution of melanism in \r response to climate change (low confidence), with colour changes \r associated with thermoregulation being demonstrated in butterflies \r (Zeuss et  al., 2014; MacLean et  al., 2016; MacLean et  al., 2019a), \r beetles (de Jong and Brakefield, 1998; Brakefield and de Jong, 2011; \r Zvereva et  al., 2019), dragonflies (Zeuss et  al., 2014) and phasmids \r (Nosil et al., 2018). Such changes may represent decreased phenotypic \r diversity and, potentially, genetic diversity (low confidence), but \r the consequences of climate change for the genetic structure and \r diversity of populations have not been widely assessed (Pauls et al., \r 2013). Simplistically, the thermal melanism hypothesis suggests \r that lighter (higher-reflectance) individuals should be fitter and \r therefore be selected for in a warmer climate (Clusella-Trullas et al., \r 2007). However, several biotic (e.g., thermoregulatory requirements, \r [...]"


id: 72698554faf3a60b1f151714e748c23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17367
content:
"[...] predator avoidance and signalling) and abiotic (e.g., UV, moisture \r and inter-annual variability) factors interact to influence changes in \r colour, making attribution to climate change across species and broad \r geographic regions difficult (Kingsolver and Buckley, 2015; Stuart-Fox \r et al., 2017; Clusella-Trullas and Nielsen, 2020)."


id: 403335c694d48ff90cdd508a09f518e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8485
content:
"Assessment of changes in diseases of terrestrial and freshwater wild \r organisms was scarce in WGII AR4, AR5, IPCC SR1.5 and IPCC SRCCL. \r Further, most emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are zoonoses, that is, \r they are transmissible between humans and animals, and are climate \r sensitive (Woolhouse et al., 2001; Woolhouse and Gowtage-Sequeria, \r 2005; McIntyre et  al., 2017; Salyer et  al., 2017). AR4 found \r weak-to-moderate evidence that disease vectors and their diseases \r had changed their distributions in concert with climate change, but \r attribution studies were lacking (Smith et al., 2014). In AR5, WGII AR5 \r Chapter 11, geographic expansion of a few VBDs to higher latitudes \r and elevations were detected and associated with regional climate \r trends, but the non-climatic drivers were not well assessed, leading to \r a medium confidence in attribution (Smith et al., 2014)). Here, we build \r on previous assessments by focussing on changes in the population \r [...]"


id: 1b794dde56115ca3031493320a00133d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2018
content:
"[...] dynamics and geographic distribution of diseases in wild animals as \r well as diseases in humans and domestic animals that are harboured, \r amplified and transmitted by wild animal reservoir hosts and vectors."


id: 2fe921d08b789bcb9f1a216ca1166c13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5682
content:
"There is increasing evidence of the role of extreme events in disease \r outbreaks (very high confidence) (Tjaden et  al., 2018; Bryson et  al., \r 2020). Heat waves have been associated with outbreaks of helminth \r pathogens, especially in sub-Arctic and Arctic areas. For example, a \r severe outbreak of microfilaremia, a VBD spread by mosquitoes and \r flies, plagued reindeer in northern Europe following extreme high \r temperatures (Laaksonen et  al., 2010). More frequent and severe \r extreme events such as floods, droughts, heat waves and storms \r can either increase or decrease outbreaks, depending upon the \r region and disease (robust evidence, high agreement) (Anyamba \r et  al., 2001; Marcheggiani et  al., 2010; Brown and Murray, 2013; \r Paz, 2015; Boyce et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2016b; Wilcox et al., 2019; \r Nosrat et al., 2021). Heavy precipitation events have been shown to \r increase some infectious diseases with aquatic life-cycle components \r [...]"


id: 5ccca4fb677029d8178fa0bfea784f6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13590
content:
"[...] such as mosquito-borne, helminth, and rodent-borne diseases (robust \r evidence, high agreement) (Anyamba et al., 2001; Zhou et al., 2005; \r Wu et  al., 2008; Brown and Murray, 2013; Anyamba et  al., 2014; \r Boyce et al., 2016). Conversely, flooding also increases flow rate and \r decreases parasite load and diversity in other aquatic wildlife (Hallett \r and Bartholomew, 2008; Bjork and Bartholomew, 2009; Marcogliese, \r 2016; Marcogliese et al., 2016) and can reduce mosquito abundance \r by flushing them out of the system (Paaijmans et al., 2007; Paz, 2015)."


id: 1821f22285fc7bccf9b40b583fae6965
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1450
content:
"High Arctic regions have warmed by more than double the global \r average, >2degC in most areas (Sections 2.3.1.1.2, Figure 2.11, and Atlas \r 11.2.1.2 in (IPCC, 2021a)). Experimental field ecology studies and \r computational models of Arctic and sub-Arctic regions indicate that \r milder winters have reduced the mortality of vectors and reservoir hosts \r and increased their habitat as forested taiga expands into previously \r treeless tundra (Table  SM2.1) (Parkinson et  al., 2014). Warmer \r temperatures and longer seasonal windows have allowed faster \r reproduction/replication, accelerated development and increased the \r number of generations per year of pathogens, vectors and some host \r animals, which, in turn, increases the populations of disease organisms \r and disease transmission (Sections 2.4.2.4, 2.4.4.3.3). Higher numbers \r of ticks, mosquitoes, Culicoides biting midges, deer flies, horseflies \r and Simuliidae black flies, that transmit a variety of pathogens, are \r [...]"


id: e2458685651eb739fbe8da68c0e3908c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37094
content:
"[...] being documented in high-latitude regions and where they have been \r historically absent (robust evidence, high agreement) (Waits et  al., \r 2018; Caminade et  al., 2019; Gilbert, 2021). In concert with these \r poleward shifts of hosts and vectors, pathogens, particularly tick-borne \r pathogens and helminth infections, have increased dramatically in \r incidence and severity from once-rare occurrences and have appeared \r in new regions (very high confidence) (Caminade et al., 2019; Gilbert, \r 2021)."


id: 51a22a58d78e6dc6d173f54974d9ac0f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11642
content:
"Bd is not universally harmful; it has been recorded as endemic in frog \r populations that do not suffer disease, where it may be commensal \r rather than parasitic (Puschendorf et al., 2006; Puschendorf et al., 2011; \r Rowley and Alford, 2013). Projections of future impacts are difficult, as \r the virulence is variable across Bd populations and dependent upon the \r evolutionary and ecological history and evolutionary potential of both \r a local amphibian population and the endemic or invading Bd (robust \r evidence, high agreement) (Retallick et al., 2004; Daskin et al., 2011; \r Puschendorf et al., 2011; Phillips and Puschendorf, 2013; Rowley and \r Alford, 2013; Zumbado-Ulate et al., 2014; Sapsford et al., 2015; Voyles \r et al., 2018; Bradley et al., 2019; Fisher and Garner, 2020; McMillan \r et  al., 2020). Further, specific local habitats might serve as regional \r climate refugia from chytrid infection (e.g., hot and dry) (medium \r [...]"


id: 6922f4dc78429c4c1e9b202befd1188b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15763
content:
"[...] evidence, high agreement) (Zumbado-Ulate et al., 2014; Cohen et al., \r 2019b; Neely et al., 2020; Turner et al., 2021)."


id: d7620f7914a317cefaf6392c5a026fde
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35193
content:
"Exploitation of wildlife and degradation of natural habitats have \r increased opportunities for a 'spill over' of pathogens from wildlife \r to human populations and also the emergence of zoonotic disease \r epidemics and pandemics (robust evidence, high agreement); animal \r and human migrations driven by climate change have added to \r this increased risk (medium evidence, medium agreement) (see \r Section  2.4.2.1, Chapter 8, Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE in \r Chapter 5) (Patz et  al., 2004; Cleaveland et  al., 2007; Karesh et  al., \r 2012; Altizer et al., 2013; Allen et al., 2017; Plowright et al., 2017; Faust \r et al., 2018; Carlson et al., 2020; Gibb et al., 2020; Hockings et al., 2020; \r IPBES, 2020; Volpato et  al., 2020; Glidden et  al., 2021). Agricultural \r losses and subsequent food scarcity, increasing due to climate change, \r can also lead to an increase in the use of bushmeat, and thus increase \r the risk of diseases jumping from wild animals to humans (medium \r [...]"


id: 761e6e86dcb7fdb095f6bff53d464ecc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18011
content:
"[...] evidence, high agreement) (Brashares et al., 2004; Leroy et al., 2004; \r Wolfe et al., 2004; Rosen and Smith, 2010; Kurpiers et al., 2016)."


id: 9db8f691617fc32c1cb60640f3eab813
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24978
content:
"Warmer temperatures have increased blood-feeding insect harassment \r of reindeer with compounding consequences: (1) increased insect-bite \r rates lead to higher parasite loads, (2) time spent by reindeer in trying \r to escape biting flies reduces foraging while simultaneously increasing \r their energy expenditure, (3) the combination of (1) and (2) leads to \r poor body condition which subsequently leads to (4) reduced winter \r survival and fecundity (Mallory and Boyce, 2017). As temperatures \r warm and connectivity increases between the Arctic and the rest of the \r world, tourism, resource extraction and increased commercial transport \r will create additional risks of biological invasion by infectious agents \r and their hosts (Pauchard et al., 2016). These increases in introduction \r risk compounded with climate change have already begun to harm \r Indigenous Peoples dependent on hunting and herding livestock \r (horses and reindeer) that are suffering increased pathogen infection \r [...]"


id: 6f675a41f59db9b343f4f8929cf8ec10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16864
content:
"Climate change further increases risk by altering pathogen and host animal (1) geographic ranges and habitats; (2) \r survival, growth and development; (3) reproduction and replication; (4) transmission and exposure (5) behaviour; \r and (6) access to immunologically naive animals and people who lack resistance to infection. This can lead to \r novel disease emergence in new places, more frequent and larger outbreaks, and longer or shifted seasons of \r transmission. Climate change is making it possible for many EIDs to colonise historically colder areas that are \r becoming warmer and wetter in temperate and polar regions and in the mountains. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) \r are diseases spread by vectors such as mosquitoes, sand flies, kissing bugs and ticks. For example, ticks that carry the \r virus that causes tick-borne encephalitis have moved into the northern subarctic regions of Asia and Europe. Viruses \r [...]"


id: 99c41f464e62f55d95a95171ec8b646d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24281
content:
"[...] like dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis are emerging in Nepal in hilly and mountainous areas. Novel \r outbreaks of Vibrio bacteria seafood poisoning are being traced to the the Baltic States and Alaska where they were \r never documented before. Many scientific studies show that the transmission of infectious disease and the number \r of individuals infected depends on rainfall and temperature; climate change often makes these conditions more \r favourable for disease transmission."


id: 458d3f63eec51d2f728b87819a177b3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9459
content:
"agricultural and urban expansion), changes in public health access \r and measures, socioeconomic changes, increased global movement \r of people and changes in vector and rodent control programs, \r supporting medium confidence in the role of climate change driving \r the observed changes in vector-borne and infectious human diseases \r globally. Exceptions are in areas noted above (the Arctic, sub-Arctic, \r and high-elevation regions), in which climate change fingerprints \r are strong and concurrent changes in non-climatic drivers are less \r pronounced than in other regions (high confidence for climate change \r attribution) (see Table SM2.1, Sections 5.5.1.3, 7.2.2.1, Cross-Chapter \r Box  ILLNESS this Chapter) (Harvell et  al., 2002; Norwegian Polar \r Institute, 2009; Tersago et al., 2009; Tabachnick, 2010; Altizer et al., \r 2013; Garrett et al., 2013; Paz, 2015; Wu et al., 2016b; Caminade et al., \r 2019; Dewage et al., 2019; Coates and Norton, 2020; Deksne et al., \r [...]"


id: bd6e1fb93ddd7582301134fd02f8c03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30584
content:
"Previous sections document the tendency of species to retain \r their climate envelopes by some combination of range shift and \r phenological change (very high confidence). However, this tracking of \r climate change can be incomplete, causing species or populations to \r experience hotter conditions than those to which they are adapted, \r and thereby incur 'climate debts' (section 2.4.2.3.1) (Devictor et al., \r 2012). The importance of population-level debt is illustrated by a study \r in which the estimated debt values were correlated with population \r dynamic trends in a North American migratory songbird, the yellow \r warbler, Setophaga petechia. Populations that were genetic outliers \r for their local climate space had larger population declines (greater \r debt) than those with genotypes closer to the average values for that \r particular climate space. Debt values were estimated from genomic \r analyses independent of the population trends, and were distributed \r [...]"


id: e0dc18492847cc305c1b827a1874330f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36827
content:
"[...] across the species' range in a mosaic, not simply concentrated at \r range margins, rendering the results robust to being confounded by \r broad-scale geographical trends (Bay et al., 2018). Soroye et al. (2020) \r found similar results for 66 species of bumble-bees across Europe \r and North America, with declines in abundances spread throughout \r species' ranges, but being greatest where populations already near \r their climate limits were being pushed beyond their climatic tolerances \r with climate change {2.4.2.3.1}."


id: 68272051b31e0f5a4ad5472339102545
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15589
content:
"shifts to climate change are relatively straightforward, if human LULCC \r is minimal. However, other biomes, such as many grassland systems, \r are not in equilibrium with climate (Bond et  al., 2005). In these \r systems, their evolutionary history (Keeley et  al., 2011; Stromberg, \r 2011; Charles-Dominique et  al., 2016), distribution, structure and \r function have been shaped by climate and natural disturbances, such \r as fire and herbivory (Staver et al., 2011; Lehmann et al., 2014; Pausas, \r 2015; Bakker et al., 2016; Malhi et al., 2016). Disturbance variability is \r an inherent characteristic of grassland systems, and suitable 'control' \r conditions are seldom available in nature. Furthermore, due to the \r integral role of disturbance, these biomes have been widely affected \r by long-term and widespread shifts in grazing regimes, large-scale \r losses of mega-herbivores and fire suppression policies (Archibald \r [...]"


id: ee352422f9e8eab7daca9b853675aa23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39278
content:
"[...] et al., 2013; Malhi et al., 2016; Hempson et al., 2017). It is necessary \r to conduct climate change attribution on a case-by-case basis for \r grasslands; such assessments are complex as direct climate change \r impacts from either inherent variation within disturbance regimes \r or directional changes in background disturbances are difficult to \r separate (detailed in Sections 2.4.3.2.1; 2.4.3.2.2; 2.4.3.5). Confidence \r in assessments is increased when the observed trends are supported by \r a mechanistic understanding of responses identified by physiological \r studies, manipulative field experiments, greenhouse studies and lab \r experiments (Table SM2.1)."


id: cdb73489db792a53b7a63c95c656e31a
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"Widespread vegetation greening, as projected in AR4, is occurring in \r arid shrublands (Zhang et al., 2019a; Maestre et al., 2021) as a result \r of increases in leaf area, woody cover and herbaceous production at \r desert-grassland interfaces (Gonsamo et al., 2021). Plant productivity \r in arid regions has increased (Fensholt et  al., 2012) because of \r improved water-use efficiency associated with elevated CO2 (Norby \r and Zak, 2011; Donohue et al., 2013; Burrell et al., 2020; Gonsamo \r et  al., 2021) (medium evidence, high agreement), altered rainfall \r seasonality and amount (Rohde et  al., 2019; Zhang et  al., 2019a ) \r (robust evidence, high agreement), increases in temperature (Ratajczak \r et al., 2014; Wilcox et al., 2018) (robust evidence, high agreement) and \r heavy grazing (robust evidence, high agreement), with the relative \r importance differing across locations (Donohue et al., 2013; Caracciolo \r et al., 2016; Archer et al., 2017; Hoffmann et al., 2019b; Rohde et al., \r [...]"


id: 8cd8231b382fcacda6455e2b45c8d939
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"[...] 2019). Woody-plant encroachment into arid shrublands is occurring \r with high confidence in North America (Caracciolo et al., 2016; Archer \r et al., 2017) and southern Africa (du Toit and O'Connor, 2014; Ward \r et  al., 2014; Masubelele et  al., 2015a; Hoffman et  al., 2019; Rohde \r et al., 2019), and with low confidence in central Asia (Li et al., 2015). \r In North America, sagebrush steppe changes have been attributed to \r increases in temperature and earlier snowpack melt (USGCRP, 2017; \r Mote et al., 2018; Snyder et al., 2019)."


id: d7c8e38ca10b1ba1a387578ad935378
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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"Declines in plant health and increased mortality in MTEs associated \r with drought have been widely documented (robust evidence, \r high agreement) (Section  2.4.4.3). Remote-sensing studies show \r drought-associated mortality in post-fire vegetation regrowth in the \r Fynbos of South Africa (Slingsby et al., 2020b), reduced canopy health \r in forests within MTE zones of South Africa (Hope et al., 2014) and \r declines in canopy water content in the forests of California (Asner \r et al., 2016a). Several studies reported climate-associated responses \r of dominant or charismatic species. High mortality in the Clanwilliam \r cedar tree between 1931 and 2013 occurred at lower, hotter elevations \r in the Fynbos of South Africa (White et al., 2016). Drought reduced \r growth and increased mortality of the holm oak, Quercus ilex, on \r the Iberian Peninsula of Spain (Natalini et  al. (2016). Portuguese \r shrublands experienced losses of many deciduous and evergreen oak \r [...]"


id: bbf72d12e7c6d3e2c02db3cddaaf3048
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"[...] species, and an increasing dominance of pyrophytic xeric trees (Acacio \r et al., 2017). The 2012-2015 drought in California caused high-canopy \r foliage dieback of the giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) \r (Stephenson et al., 2019), increased the dominance of oaks relative to \r pines as a result of the increased water deficit, and led to large-scale \r tree mortality due to interactions of drought and insect pest outbreaks \r (McIntyre et al., 2015; Fettig et al., 2019)."


id: 2a4cfe8fc451fc0d818ae622f1b56d5c
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"Savannas consist of co-existing trees and grasses in tropical and \r temperate regions (Archibald et al., 2019). The global trend of woody \r encroachment reported in AR5 (Settele et al., 2014) is continuing (robust \r evidence, high agreement, very high confidence) (see Table  SM2.1), \r with increases occurring in temperate savannas in North America \r (10-20% per decade) and tropical savannas in South America (8% \r per decade), Africa (2.4% per decade) and Australia (1% per decade) \r (O'Connor et al., 2014; Espirito-Santo et al., 2016; Skowno et al., 2017; \r Stevens et al., 2017; McNicol et al., 2018; Venter et al., 2018; Rosan \r et al., 2019). Additionally, the forest expansion into mesic savannas \r reported in AR5 (Settele et  al., 2014) is continuing in Africa, South \r America and Southeast Asia (Marimon et al., 2014; Keenan et al., 2015; \r Baccini et al., 2017; Ondei et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017; Aleman \r et al., 2018; Rosan et al., 2019). Extreme high rainfall anomalies have \r [...]"


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"[...] also contributed to an increase in herbaceous and foliar production in \r the Sahel (Brandt et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019a)."


id: 33b7432f2515f3c79f301047c3edc57b
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"Specific examples of climate change-driven range shifts of tropical \r deciduous forests upslope into alpine grasslands have been documented \r in the Americas (Chacon-Moreno et al., 2021; Jimenez-Garcia et al., \r 2021) and Asia (Sigdel et  al., 2018). However, tree line behaviours \r are diverse. A study in Nepal recorded that the tree line fomed by \r Abies spectabilis had been stable for more than a century, while the \r upper limit of large shrubs (Rhododendron campanulatum) had been \r advancing (Mainali et  al., 2020). In both the Andes (Harsch et  al., \r 2009) and Himalayas (Singh et al., 2021), most tree lines have been \r stable, leading (Rehm and Feeley, 2015) to postulate a 'grass ceiling' \r that has been difficult for trees to penetrate. The tree line shifts that \r have occurred are probably driven by interactions between changing \r land use (e.g., fire suppression) and climate changes such as increased \r rainfall, warming and elevated CO2 (via CO2 fertilisation or increases \r [...]"


id: e959e7eb2d2fba01e4cdeda4ae114f1d
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"[...] in water-use efficiency) (medium evidence, medium agreement)\r (Cernusak et al., 2013; Huang et al., 2013; Van Der Sleen et al., 2015; \r Yang et al., 2016)."


id: b8a062728d7bccc4f874e4a1832d75bd
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content:
"The global extent of grasslands is declining significantly because of \r climate change (medium confidence). In temperate and boreal zones, \r where about half of tree lines are shifting, they are overwhelmingly \r expanding poleward and upward, with an accompanying loss of \r montane and boreal grassland (robust evidence, high agreement) \r whereas tropical tree lines have been generally stable (medium \r evidence, medium agreement) (Harsch et al., 2009; Rehm and Feeley, \r 2015; Silva et al., 2016; Andela et al., 2017; Song et al., 2018; Aide \r et  al., 2019; Gibson and Newman, 2019). The Eurasian steppes \r experienced a 1% increase in woody cover per decade since 2000 (Liu \r et  al., 2021) and inner Mongolian grasslands in China experienced \r broad encroachment as well (Chen et  al., 2015). Climatic drivers of \r woody expansion in temperature-limited grasslands, particularly \r alpine grasslands, are most frequently attributed to warming (robust \r [...]"


id: 804b1969a7ecdfa60dd14cbb3e08d184
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"[...] evidence, high agreement, high confidence) (D'Odorico et  al., 2012; \r Hagedorn et al., 2014), an increase in water and nutrient availability \r from thawing permafrost (medium evidence, high agreement) (Zhou \r et  al., 2015b; Silva et  al., 2016) and rising CO2 (medium evidence, \r medium agreement) (Frank et al., 2015; Aide et al., 2019). Interactions \r of LULCCs such as land abandonment, grazing management shifts \r and fire suppression with climate change are contributing factors (Liu \r et al., 2021)"


id: 2c79a314bf1a2ff2bcadea80fc6ec938
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"Climate change continues to degrade forests by reducing resilience to \r pests and diseases, increasing species invasion, facilitating pathogen \r spread (Malhi et al., 2014; Deb et al., 2018) and intensifying fire risk \r and potential dieback (Lapola et  al., 2018; Marengo et  al., 2018). \r Drought, temperature increases and forest fragmentation interact to \r increase the prevalence of fires in tropical forests (robust evidence, \r high agreement). Warming increases water stress in trees (Corlett, \r 2016) and, together with forest fragmentation, dramatically increases \r the desiccation of forest canopies--resulting in deforestation that \r then leads to even hotter and drier regional climates (Malhi et  al., \r 2014; Lewis et al., 2015). Warming and drought increase the invasion \r of grasses into forest edges and increase fire risk (robust evidence, high \r agreement) (Brando et al., 2014; Balch et al., 2015; Lewis et al., 2015). \r [...]"


id: 314ea48bb79e0ddb531914d922695ba
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content:
"[...] Droughts and fires additively increase mortality and, consequently, \r reduce canopy cover and above-ground biomass (Cross-Chapter Paper \r 7) (Brando et al., 2014, 2020; Balch et al., 2015; Lewis et al., 2015)."


id: fa1207658700dcae127eb9958fa26543
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"Globally, peatland ecosystems store approximately 25% (600 +- 100 \r GtC) of the world's soil organic carbon (Yu et al., 2010; Page et al., 2011; \r Hugelius et  al., 2020) and 10% of the world's freshwater resources \r (Joosten and Clarke, 2002), despite only occupying 3% of the global \r land area (Xu et al., 2018a). The long-term role of northern peatlands \r in the carbon cycle was mentioned for the first time in IPCC AR4 (IPCC, \r 2007), while SR1.5 briefly mentioned the combined effects of changes \r in climate and land use on peatlands (IPCC, 2018b). New evidence \r confirms that climate change, including extreme weather events (e.g., \r droughts; Section 8.3.1.6), permafrost degradation (Section 2.3.2.5), \r SLR (Section 2.3.3.3) and fire (Section 5.4.3.2) (Henman and Poulter, \r 2008; Kirwan and Mudd, 2012; Turetsky et al., 2015; Page and Hooijer, \r 2016; Swindles et al., 2019; Hoyt et al., 2020; Hugelius et al., 2020; \r [...]"


id: ac90b60d1f522090e76e0d2b8f8f2ca2
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"[...] Jovani-Sancho et al., 2021; Veraverbeke et al., 2021), superimposed on \r anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., draining for agriculture or mining; \r Section 5.2.1.1), has led to rapid losses of peatland carbon across the \r world (robust evidence, high agreement) (Page et  al., 2011; Leifeld \r et al., 2019; Hoyt et al., 2020; Turetsky et al., 2020; Loisel et al., 2021). \r Other essential peatland ecosystem services, such as water storage \r and biodiversity, are also being lost worldwide (robust evidence, high \r agreement) (Bonn et al., 2014; Martin-Ortega et al., 2014; Tiemeyer \r et al., 2017)."


id: e35ee0808d6e2c651758dbece393334a
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"The AR5 found increased tree mortality, wildfire and plant phenology \r changes in boreal and temperate forests (Settele et  al., 2014). \r Expanding on these conclusions, this assessment, using analyses of \r causal factors, attributes the following observed changes in boreal \r and temperate forests in the 20th and 21st centuries to anthropogenic \r climate change: upslope and poleward biome shifts at sites in Asia, \r Europe and North America (Section 2.4.3.2.1); range shifts of plants \r (Section 2.4.2.1); earlier blooming and leafing of plants (Section 2.4.2.4); \r poleward shifts in tree-feeding insects (Section  2.4.2.1); increases \r in insect pest outbreaks (Section  2.4.4.3.3); increases in the area \r burned by wildfire in western North America (Section  2.4.4.2.1); \r increased drought-induced tree mortality in western North America \r (Section  2.4.4.3.1); and thawing of the permafrost that underlies \r extensive areas of boreal forest (Section  2.4.3.9)(Section  2.3.2.5 in \r [...]"


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"[...] (Gulev et  al., 2021)). Atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic sources \r has also increased net primary productivity (NPP) (Section 2.4.4.5.1). \r In summary, anthropogenic climate change has caused substantial \r changes in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems, including biome \r shifts and increases in wildfire, insect pest outbreaks and tree mortality, "


id: 85fe8514a24fc6090f09a28d19e7b63b
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"emissions (medium evidence, high agreement). Climate change is \r compounding these impacts (medium evidence, medium agreement). \r For example, in Indonesia, the highest emissions from drained tropical \r peatlands were reported in the extremely dry year of the 1997 El Nino \r (810-2570 TgC yr-1) (Page et al., 2002) and the 2015 fire season (380 \r TgC yr-1) (Field et al., 2016). These prolonged dry seasons have also \r led to tree die-offs and fires, which are relatively new phenomena at \r these latitudes (medium evidence, high agreement) (Cole et al., 2015; \r Mezbahuddin et al., 2015; Fanin and van der Werf, 2017; Taufik et al., \r 2017; Cole et  al., 2019). Low soil moisture contributes to increased \r fire propagation (Section 12.4.2.2) (Dadap et al., 2019; Canadell et al., \r 2021), causing long-lasting fires responsible for smoke and haze \r pollution (robust evidence, high agreement) (Ballhorn et  al., 2009; \r Page et al., 2009; Gaveau et al., 2014; Huijnen et al., 2016; Page and \r [...]"


id: 30b24dd9e30ad31a85355e4785ab754d
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content:
"[...] Hooijer, 2016; Hu et al., 2018; Vadrevu et al., 2019; Niwa et al., 2021). \r Increases in fires and smoke lead to habitat loss and negatively impact \r regional faunal populations (limited evidence, high agreement) (Neoh \r et al., 2015; Erb et al., 2018b; Thornton et al., 2018)."


id: 21c64c1486e89f10b2d53a2d229cbf49
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"The CO2 emissions from degrading peatlands is contributing to climate \r change in a positive feedback loop (robust evidence, high agreement). \r At mid-latitudes, widespread anthropogenic disturbance led to large \r historical GHG emissions and current legacy emissions of 0.15 PgC yr-1\r between 1990 and 2000 (limited evidence, high agreement) (Maljanen \r et  al., 2010; Tiemeyer et  al., 2016; Drexler et  al., 2018; Qiu et  al., \r 2021). About 80 million hectares of peatland have been converted to \r agriculture, equivalent to 72 PgC emissions in 850-2010 CE (Leifeld \r et al., 2019; Qiu et al., 2021). In Southeast Asia (SEA), an estimated 20-\r 25 Mha of peatlands have been converted to agriculture with carbon \r currently being lost at a rate of ~155+-30MtCyr-1 (Miettinen et al., \r 2016; Leifeld et al., 2019; Hoyt et al., 2020). Extensive deforestation \r and drainage have caused widespread peat subsidence and large CO2\r [...]"


id: c0e303b76c39d9a620f2b943ee50ce38
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"[...] emissions at a current average of ~10 +- 2 tonnes ha-1 yr-1, excluding \r fires (Hoyt et al., 2020), with values estimated from point subsidence \r measurements being as high as 30-90 tonnes CO2 ha-1 yr-1 locally \r (robust evidence, high agreement) (Wosten et  al., 1997; Matysek \r et  al., 2018; Swails et  al., 2018; Evans et  al., 2019; Conchedda and \r Tubiello, 2020; Anshari et al., 2021). On average, at the global scale, \r increases in GHG emissions from peatlands have primarily come from \r the compounded effects of LUC, drought and fire, with additional \r emissions from some thawing-permafrost peatlands (robust evidence, \r high agreement)."


id: a838c67df691101a43cbc2f4a825ddf9
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"In large, lowland tropical peatland basins that are less impacted by \r anthropogenic activities (i.e., the Amazon and Congo river basins), \r the direct impact of climate change is that of a decreased carbon \r sink (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Roucoux et  al., 2013; \r Gallego-Sala et  al., 2018; Wang et  al., 2018a; Dargie et  al., 2019; \r Ribeiro et al., 2021). As for the temperate and boreal regions, climatic \r drying also tends to promote peat oxidation and carbon loss to the \r atmosphere (medium evidence, medium agreement) (Section 2.3.1.3.4) \r (Helbig et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020). In Europe, increasing mean \r annual temperatures in the Baltic, Scandinavia, and continental \r Europe (Section 12.4.5.1) have led to widespread lowering of peatland \r water tables at intact sites (Swindles et  al., 2019), desiccation and \r die-off of sphagnum moss (Bragazza, 2008; Lees et  al., 2019) and \r increased intensity and frequency of fires, resulting in a rapid carbon \r [...]"


id: 416dac47bee4de21f0324577cf12512a
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"[...] loss (Davies et al., 2013; Veraverbeke et al., 2021). Nevertheless, longer \r growing seasons and warmer, wetter climates have increased carbon \r accumulation and promoted thick deposits regionally, as reported for \r some North American sites (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Cai \r and Yu, 2011; Shiller et al., 2014; Ott and Chimner, 2016)."


id: f6bcc66735fd3256bc454207405891c
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"Warming at high latitudes, documented in both AR4 and AR5, is \r leading to earlier snow and sea ice melt and longer growing seasons \r (IPCC, 2021a) which are continuing to alter tundra plant communities \r (medium evidence, high agreement) (Post et al., 2009; Gauthier et al., \r 2013). Woody encroachment and increases in vegetation productivity, \r observed in both AR4 and AR5, are widespread and continuing. Both \r experiments and monitoring indicate that climate warming is causing \r increases in shrub, grass and sedge abundance, density, frequency, \r and height, with decreases in mosses and/or lichens (robust evidence, \r high agreement) (Myers-Smith et  al., 2011; Bjorkman et  al., 2018; \r Bjorkman et al., 2019). Shrub growth is climate-sensitive and is greater \r in years with warmer growing seasons (Myers-Smith et  al., 2015). \r Plant species that prefer warmer conditions are increasing (Elmendorf \r et al., 2015; Bjorkman et al., 2018), plant cover is increasing and bare \r [...]"


id: f30b8733ae36efa7fef9e79c194affca
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"[...] ground is decreasing in long-term monitoring plots (Bjorkman et al., \r 2019; Myers-Smith et al., 2019). Animals such as moose, beavers and \r songbirds may already be responding to these vegetation changes \r by expanding their ranges northward or upslope into shrub tundra \r (Boelman et al., 2015; Tape et al., 2016a; Tape et al., 2016b; Tape et al., \r 2018)."


id: b3691eee932a60dd491a37eb00d21314
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"In high-latitude peatlands, the net effect of climate change on the \r permafrost peatland carbon sink capacity remains uncertain (Abbott \r et  al., 2016; McGuire et  al., 2018b; Laamrani et  al., 2020; Loisel \r et  al., 2021; Sim et  al., 2021; Valiranta et  al., 2021). Increasing air \r temperatures have been linked to permafrost degradation and altered \r hydrological regimes (2.3.3.2; Figure  2.4a; 2.4.3.9; Box  5.1), which \r have led to rapid changes in plant communities and bio-geochemical \r cycling (robust evidence, high agreement) (Liljedahl et  al., 2016; \r Swindles et al., 2016; Voigt et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2017b; Voigt et al., \r 2020; Sim et  al., 2021). In many instances, permafrost degradation \r triggers thermokarst land subsidence associated with local wetting \r (robust evidence, high agreement) (Jones et  al., 2013; Borge et  al., \r 2017; Olvmo et  al., 2020; Olefeldt et  al., 2021). Permafrost thaw in \r [...]"


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"[...] peatland-rich landscapes can also cause local drying through increased \r hydrological connectivity and runoff (Connon et al., 2014). In the first \r decades following thaw, increases in methane, CO2 and nitrous oxide \r emissions have been recorded from peatland sites, depending on \r surface moisture conditions (Schuur et al., 2009; O'Donnell et al., 2012; "


id: ffcbfab2ced335d8723e6987fa75fa51
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content:
"Wildfire is a natural and essential component of many forest and \r other terrestrial ecosystems. Excessive wildfire, however, can kill \r people, cause respiratory disease, destroy houses, emit carbon dioxide \r and damage ecosystem integrity (see Sections  2.4.4.2 and 2.4.4.4). \r Anthropogenic climate change increases wildfire by exacerbating its \r three principal driving factors: heat, fuel and ignition (Moritz et  al., \r 2012; Jolly et  al., 2015). Non-climatic factors also contribute to \r wildfires--in tropical areas, fires are set intentionally to clear forest \r for agricultural fields and livestock pastures (Bowman et  al., 2020). \r Urban areas and roads create ignition hazards. Governments in many \r temperate-zone countries implement policies to suppress fires, even \r natural ones, producing unnatural accumulations of fuel in the form \r of coarse woody debris and high densities of small trees (Ruffault and \r [...]"


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"[...] Mouillot, 2015; Hessburg et al., 2016; Andela et al., 2017; Balch et al., \r 2017; Lasslop and Kloster, 2017; Aragao et al., 2018; Kelley et al., 2019). \r Globally, 4.2  million km2\r  of land per year burned on average from \r 2002 to 2016 (Giglio et al., 2018), with the highest fire frequencies \r in the Amazon rainforest, deciduous forests and savannas in Africa \r and deciduous forests in northern Australia (Earl and Simmonds, 2018; \r Andela et al., 2019)."


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"Since the AR5 and the IPCC Special Report on Land, published research \r has detected increases in the area burned by wildfire, analysed relative \r contributions of climate and non-climate factors and attributed burned \r area increases above natural (recent historical) levels to anthropogenic \r climate change in one part of the world, western North America \r (robust evidence, high agreement) (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; \r Partain et  al., 2016; Kirchmeier-Young et  al., 2019; Mansuy et  al., \r 2019; Bowman et  al., 2020). Across the western USA, increases in \r vegetation aridity due to higher temperatures from anthropogenic \r climate change doubled burned area from 1984 to 2015 over what \r would have burned due to non-climate factors including unnatural fuel \r accumulation from fire suppression, with the burned area attributed \r to climate change accounting for 49% (32-76%, 95% confidence \r interval) of cumulative burned area (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016). \r [...]"


id: e7e5f757be0a45cd5c9fd3cb5a8b1906
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38111
content:
"[...] Anthropogenic climate change doubled the severity of a southwest \r North American drought from 2000 to 2020 that has reduced soil \r moisture to its lowest levels since the 1500s (Williams et al., 2020), \r driving half of the increase in burned area (Abatzoglou and Williams, \r 2016; Holden et al., 2018; Williams et al., 2019). In British Columbia, \r Canada, the increased maximum temperatures due to anthropogenic \r climate change increased burned area in 2017 to its highest extent "


id: 5e1a9565675f2d25689f0ed5bc7a7888
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13851
content:
"Where the global average burned area has decreased in the past two \r decades, higher correlations of rates of change in burning to human \r population density, cropland area and livestock density than to \r precipitation indicate that agricultural expansion and intensification \r were the main causes (Andela et  al., 2017). The global decrease of \r fire frequency from 2000 to 2010 is correlated with increasing human \r population density (Knorr et  al., 2014). The fire-reducing effect of \r reduced vegetation cover following expansion of agriculture and \r livestock herding can counteract the fire-increasing effect of the \r increased heat and drying associated with climate change (Lasslop and \r Kloster, 2017; Arora and Melton, 2018; Forkel et al., 2019). The reduced \r burning needed after the initial clearing for agricultural expansion \r drives much of the decline in fires in the Tropics (Andela et al., 2017; \r Earl and Simmonds, 2018; Forkel et al., 2019). The human influence on \r [...]"


id: eb85977d2efc12d50dedb935ad1fd96a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38797
content:
"[...] fire ignition can be seen through the decrease documented on holy \r days (Sundays and Fridays) and traditional religious days of rest (Earl \r et al., 2015). Overall, human land use exerts an influence on wildfire \r trends for global terrestrial area as a whole that can be stronger than \r climate change (medium confidence)."


id: d793feee9ce9ce25e898b81a13d5af16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35232
content:
"Regarding global terrestrial area as a whole, wildfire trends vary \r depending on the time period of analysis. From 1900 to 2000, global \r average fire frequency, based on field data, increased 0.4% but the \r change was not statistically significant (Gonzalez et  al., 2010). Fire \r frequency increased on one-third of global land, mainly from burning \r for agricultural clearing in Africa, Asia and South America, slightly less \r than the area of fire frequency decrease, mainly from fire suppression \r across Australia, North America and Russia (Gonzalez et  al., 2010). \r Analyses of the Global Fire Emissions Database document shows \r that, from 1996 to 2015, global burned area decreased at a rate of \r -0.7% yr-1 (Forkel et al., 2019) but the change was not statistically \r significant (Giglio et al., 2013). From 1998 to 2015, global burned area \r decreased at a rate of -1.4 +- 0.5% yr-1 (Andela et al., 2017). The area \r [...]"


id: fb3609b5aa28a0a0d3541cff1bcc476f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41569
content:
"[...] of fire increases was one-third of the area of decreases, due to reduced \r vegetation cover from agricultural expansion and intensification \r (Andela et al., 2017) and from increased precipitation (Forkel et al., "


id: 821f0b5064130d6f02fd9a0c4a49da23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20016
content:
"Silva et al., 2018; da Silva et al., 2021; dos Reis et al., 2021; Libonati \r et al., 2021). Roads facilitate deforestation, fragmenting the rainforest \r and increasing the dryness and flammability of vegetation (Alencar \r et  al., 2015). Extreme droughts that occur during warm phases of \r the ENSO and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation combine with \r the degradation of vegetation to cause extreme fire events (robust \r evidence, high agreement) (Fonseca et al., 2017; Aragao et al., 2018; \r da Silva et al., 2018; Burton et al., 2020; dos Reis et al., 2021; Libonati \r et  al., 2021). In the State of Roraima, Brazil, distance to roads and \r infrastructure that enable deforestation and ENSO were the factors \r most explaining fire occurrence in the extreme 2015-2016 fire season \r (Fonseca et al., 2017). From 1973 to 2014, burned area increased in \r the Amazon, coinciding with increased deforestation (van Marle et al., \r [...]"


id: 67e4bc8186e578b64e2a07776cd70a90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15553
content:
"[...] 2017). In the State of Acre, Brazil, burned area increased 36-fold from \r 1984 to 2016, with 43% burned in agricultural and livestock settlement \r areas (da Silva et al., 2018). In the extreme fire year 2019, 85% of the \r area burned in the Amazon occurred in areas deforested in 2018 (Cardil \r et  al., 2020). Even though relatively higher moisture in 2019 led to \r burning below the 2002-2019 average across most of South America, \r burning in areas of recent deforestation in the Amazon were above the \r 2002-2019 average, indicating that deforestation, not meteorological \r conditions, triggered the 2019 fires (Kelley et al., 2021; Libonati et al., \r 2021). Furthermore, from 1981 to 2018, deforestation in the Amazon \r reduced moisture inputs to the lower atmosphere, increasing drought \r and fire in a self-reinforcing feedback (Xu et al., 2020). In the Amazon, \r deforestation exerts an influence on wildfire that can be stronger than \r climate change (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 51b86df961477415b1e08d76faa38753
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11664
content:
"In the Arctic tundra and boreal forest, where wildfire has naturally \r been infrequent, burned area showed statistically significant increases \r of ~50% yr-1 across Siberia, Russia, from 1996 to 2015 (Ponomarev \r et al., 2016) and 2% yr-1 across Canada from 1959 to 2015 (Hanes \r et al., 2019). Wildfire burned ~6% of the area of four extensive Arctic \r permafrost regions in Alaska, USA, eastern Canada and Siberia from \r 1999 to 2014 (Nitze et al., 2018). In boreal forest in the Northwest \r Territories, Canada and Alaska, USA, the area burned by wildfire \r increased at a statistically significant rate of 6.8% yr-1 in the period \r 1975-2015, (Veraverbeke et al., 2017), with smouldering below-ground \r fires that lasted through the winter covering ~1% of burned area \r in the period 2002-2016 (Scholten et  al., 2021). While burned area \r was correlated with temperature and reduced precipitation in Siberia \r (Ponomarev et  al., 2016; Masrur et  al., 2018) and correlated with \r [...]"


id: 7c2ab56706e7739bddd2c1bfd97f6c73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19057
content:
"[...] lightning, temperature and precipitation in the Northwest Territories \r and Alaska (Veraverbeke et  al., 2017), no attribution analyses have \r examined relative influences of climate and non-climate factors."


id: 51cb75f35e87763620cca371eaa134be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11677
content:
"In Australia, burned area increased significantly between the periods \r 1950-2002 and 2003-2020 in the southeast state of Victoria, with the \r area burned in the 2019-2020 bushfires being the highest on record \r (Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020). In addition to the deaths of dozens of \r people and the destruction of thousands of houses, the 2019-2020 \r bushfires burned almost half of the area protected for conservation \r in Victoria, two-thirds of the forests allocated for timber harvesting \r (Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020), wildlife and extensive areas of habitat \r for threatened plant and animal species (Geary et al., 2021). Generally, \r past timber harvesting did not lead to more severe fire canopy damage \r (Bowman et al., 2021b). Across southeastern Australia, the fraction of \r vegetated area that burned increased significantly in eight of the 32 \r bioregions from 1975 to 2009, but decreased significantly in three \r [...]"


id: 2018037fe630c4b4d12ed55211ff7992
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2864
content:
"[...] bioregions (Bradstock et al., 2014). Increases in four bioregions were \r correlated to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. \r Decreases in burned area occurred despite increased temperature \r and decreased precipitation. Analyses of climate across Australia \r from 1950 to 2017 (Dowdy, 2018; Harris and Lucas, 2019) and during \r periods with extensive fires in 2017 in eastern Australia (Hope et al., \r 2019), in 2018 in northeastern Australia (Lewis et al., 2020), and in \r period 2019-2020 in southeastern Australia (Abram et  al., 2021; \r van Oldenborgh et al., 2021) indicate that temperature and drought \r extremes due to the ENSO, Southern Annular Mode and other natural \r inter-decadal cycles drive inter-annual variability of fire weather. While \r the effects of inter-decadal climate cycles on fire are superimposed on \r long-term climate change, the relative importance of anthropogenic \r climate change in explaining changes in burned area in Australia \r [...]"


id: 4816a153d9752b2eed26e0e04e5273bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9900
content:
"The IPCC AR6 WGI assessed fire weather (Ranasinghe et  al., 2021), \r while this chapter assesses the impacts of changes in fire weather: \r burned area and fire frequency. The global increases in temperature \r from anthropogenic climate change have increased aridity and \r drought, lengthening the fire weather season (the annual period \r with a heat and aridity index greater than half of its annual range) \r on one-quarter of global vegetated area and increasing the average \r fire season length by one-fifth from 1979 to 2013 (Jolly et al., 2015). \r Climate change has contributed to increases in the fire weather season \r or the probability of fire weather conditions in the Amazon (Jolly et al., \r 2015), Australia (Dowdy, 2018; Abram et  al., 2021; van Oldenborgh \r et  al., 2021), Canada (Hanes et  al., 2019), central Asia (Jolly et  al., \r 2015), East Africa (Jolly et al., 2015) and North America (Jain et al., \r 2017; Williams et  al., 2019; Goss et  al., 2020). In forest areas, the \r [...]"


id: 39f32d08d10099884b4e324f86c86499
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7407
content:
"[...] burned area correlates with fuel aridity, a function of temperature; in \r non-forest areas, the burned area correlates with high precipitation in \r the previous year, which can produce high grass fuel loads (Abatzoglou \r et al., 2018). Fire use in agriculture and raising livestock or other factors \r have generated a second fire season on approximately one-quarter of \r global land where fire is present, despite sub-optimal fire weather in \r the second fire season (Benali et al., 2017). In summary, anthropogenic \r climate change, through a 0.9degC surface temperature increase since \r the pre-industrial period, has lengthened or increased the frequency of \r periods with heat and aridity that favour wildfire on up to one-quarter \r of vegetated area since 1979 (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 40285edf3bfc4d156eb88724ad35f362
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8478
content:
"Up through the AR5 (Settele et al., 2014), detection and attribution \r analyses had found that anthropogenic climate change, with global \r temperature increases of 0.3degC-0.9degC above the pre-industrial period \r and the increases in aridity exceeding the effects of local non-climate \r change factors, caused three cases of drought-induced tree mortality \r of up to 20% in the period 1945-2007 in western North America (van \r Mantgem et al., 2009), the African Sahel (Gonzalez et al., 2012) and \r North Africa (le Polain de Waroux and Lambin, 2012). Increased wildfire \r and pest infestations, driven by climate change, also contributed to \r North American tree mortality (van Mantgem et al., 2009). In addition, \r a meta-analysis of published cases found that drought consistent with, \r but not formally attributed to, climate change had caused tree mortality \r at 88 sites in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems (Allen et al., \r [...]"


id: 1780d9171994d6d24542987bdbc4c4cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1345
content:
"Since the AR5 (Settele et al., 2014), global meta-analyses found at least \r 15 (Allen et al., 2015) and 25 (Hartmann et al., 2018) additional sites, \r respectively, of drought-induced tree mortality around the world. These \r and other global analyses found more rapid mortality than previously \r (Allen et  al., 2015), rising background mortality (Allen et  al., 2015), \r mortality increasing with drought severity (Greenwood et  al., 2017), \r mortality of tropical trees increasing with temperature (Locosselli et al., \r 2020), mortality increasing with tree size for many species (Bennett \r et al., 2015), mortality predominantly at the dry edge of species ranges \r (Anderegg et al., 2019) and three-quarters of drought-induced mortality \r cases leading to a change in the dominant species (Batllori et al., 2020). \r Multiple non-climate factors contribute to tree mortality, including \r timber cutting, livestock grazing and air pollution (Martinez-Vilalta \r [...]"


id: 542395b7bd6229ef90cbd083ddf32ff7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12080
content:
"[...] and Lloret, 2016). Globally, tropical dry forests lost, from all causes, \r 95,000 km2\r , 8% of their total area, from 1982 to 2016, the most \r extensive area of mortality of any biome (Song et al., 2018)."


id: a873b7d7082d1cd23e71f2daf9a3150f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26844
content:
"Globally, fire has contributed to biome shifts (Section 2.4.3.2) and tree \r mortality (Sections 2.4.4.2, 2.4.4.3) attributed to anthropogenic climate \r change. Research since the AR5 has also found vegetation changes \r from wildfire due to climate change. Through increased temperature \r and aridity, anthropogenic climate change has driven post-fire changes \r in plant regeneration and species composition in South Africa (Slingsby \r et al., 2017), and tree regeneration in the western USA (Davis et al., \r 2019b). In the fynbos vegetation of the Cape Floristic Region, South \r Africa, post-fire heat and drought and the legacy effects of exotic plant \r species reduced the regeneration of native plant species, decreasing \r species richness by 12% from 1966 to 2010 and shifting the average \r temperature tolerance of species communities upward by 0.5degC \r (Slingsby et  al., 2017). In burned areas across the western USA, the \r [...]"


id: dda42899090540ba31a23f9e3599e6ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36257
content:
"[...] increasing heat and aridity of anthropogenic climate change from 1979 \r to 2015 pushed low-elevation ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and "


id: 66693e680018355d4a3dd058b9fdd544
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15281
content:
"Evidence shows that human-caused climate change has driven increases in the area burned by wildfire in the forests \r of western North America. Across this region, the higher temperatures of human-caused climate change doubled \r burned area from 1984 to 2015, compared with what would have burned without climate change (Figure FAQ2.3.1b). \r The additional area burned, 4.9 million hectares, is greater than the land area of Switzerland. Human-caused climate \r change drove a drought from 2000 to 2020 that has been the most severe since the 1500s, severely increasing the \r aridity of vegetation. In British Columbia, Canada, the higher maximum temperatures of human-caused climate \r change increased burned area in 2017 to its widest extent in the 1950-2017 record, seven to eleven times the area \r that would have burned without climate change. Moreover, in national parks and other protected areas of Canada \r [...]"


id: 9a5247b2ffcaa100e8c19686e8eb4f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24394
content:
"[...] and the USA, most of the area burned from 1984 to 2014 can be attributed to climate factors (temperature, rainfall \r and aridity) and these outweigh local human factors (population density, roads and urban area)."


id: b699bc41ac824b1bfdcd0936c9655a5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29328
content:
"The most extensive research into tree mortality since the AR5 has been \r in the western USA, where anthropogenic climate change accounted \r for half the magnitude of a drought in the period 2000-2020 that has \r been the most severe since the 1500s, (Williams et al., 2020) and for \r one-tenth to one-quarter of the magnitude of the 2012-2014 period of \r the severe drought in California that lasted from 2012 to 2016 (Williams \r et al., 2015a). Across the western USA, anthropogenic climate change \r doubled tree mortality between 1955 and 2007 (van Mantgem et al., \r 2009). Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) mortality increased 700% \r from 2000 to 2013 (Anderegg et al., 2015) and pinon pine (P. edulis) \r experienced >50% mortality from 2002 to 2014 (Redmond et  al., \r 2018). In montane conifer forest in California, anthropogenic climate \r change has increased tree mortality by one-quarter (Goulden and Bales, \r 2019). One-quarter of the trees died in some areas, with mortality \r [...]"


id: 67bdddf0ac7b01769ac5e76534671a56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15520
content:
"[...] rates of ponderosa pine (P. ponderosa) and sugar pine (P. lambertiana) \r increasing to up to 700% of pre-drought rates (Stephenson et  al., \r 2019; Stovall et  al., 2019). Substantial field evidence shows that \r anthropogenic climate change has caused extensive tree mortality in \r North America (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: b12dba24d6d4ad66b06b3d96d3ade8f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28399
content:
"In the Brazilian Amazon, deforestation to clear agricultural land \r comprises the principal cause of tree mortality, reducing forest cover \r by an average of 13,900 km2\r  yr-1 from 1988 to 2020 (Assis et  al., \r 2019). In addition, in a set of 310 Amazon field plots, an annual \r average temperature increase of 1.2degC from 1950 to 2018 (Marengo \r et  al., 2018) contributed to tree mortality of ~40% from 1983 to \r 2011 (Brienen et al., 2015). In another set of plots, mortality among \r newly recruited trees of mesic genera increased and drought-tolerant \r genera became more abundant from 1985 to 2015 (Esquivel-Muelbert \r et al., 2019). In other plots, tree mortality did not show a statistically \r significant change from 1965 to 2016, but rose abruptly in severe \r drought years, mainly during warm phases of the ENSO (Aleixo et al., \r 2019). Nearly half the area of the Amazon has experienced extremely \r dry conditions during ENSO warm phases; this can cause extensive \r [...]"


id: 8d41cca72d215d7355b752b5ad388669
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22031
content:
"[...] wildfire (Section 2.4.4.2.3). Wildfires can increase tree mortality rates \r by >600% above rates in non-burned areas, with the higher mortality \r persisting for up to a decade after a fire (Silva et al., 2018; Berenguer \r et al., 2021). Climate change has contributed to tree mortality in the \r Amazon rainforest (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 1e7bb6039cce670415e10694e6ddb11b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2567
content:
"would previously have died and reproduce more often (Raffa et al., \r 2008; Bentz et al., 2010; Jewett et al., 2011; Macfarlane et al., 2013; \r Raffa et al., 2013; Hart et al., 2017; Stephenson et al., 2019; Teshome \r et  al., 2020; Koontz et  al., 2021). Under warmer conditions, some \r insects that were previously innocuous have become important agents \r of tree mortality (Stephenson et al., 2019; Trugman et al., 2021). Field \r observations show mixed effects of bark beetle-induced tree mortality \r on subsequent fire-caused tree mortality (Andrus et al., 2016; Meigs \r et  al., 2016; Candau et  al., 2018; Lucash et  al., 2018; Talucci and \r Krawchuk, 2019; Wayman and Safford, 2021). From 1997 to 2018, ~5% \r of the forest area in the western USA died from bark beetle infestations \r (Hicke et al., 2020). Under most circumstances, trees that have been \r weakened by drought are more vulnerable to being killed by bark \r [...]"


id: 891b11068d6a99a8da1eb0f31d4d77ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21290
content:
"[...] beetles (Anderegg et al., 2015; Kolb et al., 2016; Lloret and Kitzberger, \r 2018; Redmond et al., 2018; Stephens et al., 2018; Fettig et al., 2019; \r Restaino et al., 2019; Stephenson et al., 2019; Koontz et al., 2021). In \r summary, climate change has contributed to bark beetle infestations \r that have caused much of the tree mortality in North America (robust \r evidence, high agreement) (see also Section 2.4.2.1)."


id: 8ff0eaa1b6130054e4f3d09dc9d8d6a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22533
content:
"Across Europe, rates of tree mortality in field inventories from 2000 to \r 2012 were highest in Spain, Bulgaria, Sweden and Finland, positively \r correlated to maximum winter temperature and inversely correlated to \r spring precipitation (Neumann et al., 2017). Tree mortality in Austria, the \r Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Slovakia and Switzerland doubled \r from 1984 to 2016, correlated with intensified logging and increased \r temperatures (Senf et al., 2018). Drought-related tree mortality rates \r from 1987 to 2016 were highest in the Ukraine, Moldova, southern \r France and Spain (Senf et  al., 2020). Climate contributed to tree \r mortality across Europe from 1958 to 2001 (Seidl et  al., 2011). In \r addition, insect infestations related to higher temperatures (Okland \r et  al., 2019) have caused the extensive mortality of Norway spruce \r (Picea abies) across nine European countries (Marini et  al., 2017; \r Mezei et al., 2017). Across the Mediterranean Basin, a combination of \r [...]"


id: cd48f5903b105126c66b902b31446d29
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33456
content:
"[...] drought, wildfire, pest infestations and livestock grazing (Penuelas and \r Sardans, 2021) has driven tree mortality. In summary, climate change \r has contributed to tree mortality in Europe (high confidence) (see also \r Section 2.4.2.1)."


id: d410b89a49b8a6dad3a1dc73c22b2fbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34642
content:
"A global meta-analysis of 59  studies encompassing 631  cases of \r animal abundance changes in areas of tree mortality over the past \r 7-59 years, primarly in North America and Australia, with a few sites \r in other regions (e.g. Europe). Overall, in areas with documented high \r tree mortality, bird abundances increased (n=186 bird species), there \r was no significant trend for mammals (n=33 species), a slight trend \r towards declines in invertebrates (n=28 species), and insufficient \r information to categorize the responses of reptiles (n=20 species). \r However, within groups, significant differences appeared. Mammals \r that use trees as refugia showed declines with tree mortality (high \r confidence), but flying mammals (e.g. bats) increased (medium \r confidence). Ground-nesting, ground-foraging, tree-hole nesting \r and bark-foraging birds increased most, but nectar-feeding and \r foliage-gleaning birds declined (high confidence). Within invertebrates, \r [...]"


id: 865ad3cffbeede6f5222d29d3bc980f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20802
content:
"[...] declines were strongest in ground-foraging predators and detritivores \r (medium confidence) (Fleming et al., 2021)."


id: 33326b0a04cfb55d1861a7039062a672
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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content:
"Ecosystems with high soil carbon densities include the peat bogs in \r Ireland with up to 3000 tonnes ha-1 (Tomlinson, 2005), the Cuvette \r Centrale swamp forest peatlands in Congo with an average of ~2200 \r tonnes ha-1 (Dargie et al., 2017), the Arctic tundra with an average of \r ~900 tonnes ha-1 (Tarnocai et al., 2009) and the mangrove peatlands \r in Kalimantan, Indonesia, with an average of 850 +- 320 tonnes ha-1\r (Murdiyarso et al., 2015). Arctic permafrost contains 1400 +- 200 GtC \r to a depth of 3 m, the largest soil carbon stock in the world (Hugelius \r et  al., 2014). Globally, peatlands contain 470-620 GtC (Page et  al., \r 2011; Hodgkins et al., 2018), of which boreal and temperate peatlands \r contain 415 +- 150 GtC (Hugelius et al., 2020) and tropical peatlands \r contain 80-350 GtC (Page et al., 2011; Dargie et al., 2017; Gumbricht \r et al., 2017; Ribeiro et al., 2021). Other analyses increase the upper \r estimates for boreal and temperate peatlands to 800-1200 GtC \r [...]"


id: c12e05983688b64f499dd3fc2fc418cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Most global deforestation is occurring in tropical forests (Pan et al., \r 2011; Liu et al., 2015; Houghton and Nassikas, 2017; Erb et al., 2018a; \r Li et al., 2018; Harris et al., 2021), primarily as a result of clearing for \r agricultural land (Hong et al., 2021), causing primary tropical forest \r to comprise a net source of carbon from 2001 to 2019: emissions to \r the atmosphere 0.6 GtC yr-1, removals from the atmosphere -0.5 GtC \r yr-1 and net 0.1 GtC yr-1 (Harris et al., 2021). While wildfires emitted \r an average of 0.4 +- 0.2 GtC yr-1 from 1997 to 2016 (van der Werf \r et al., 2017), individual fire seasons can emit the same magnitude, such \r as the 0.4 GtC from the Amazon fires of 2007 (Aragao et al., 2018), \r the 0.5 GtC from the Amazon fires of 2015-2016 (Berenguer et al., \r 2021) and the 0.2 Gt from the Australia fires of 2019-2020 (Shiraishi \r and Hirata, 2021). Wildfires thus account for up to one-third of annual \r [...]"


id: 2cf4fe5642362ea3f1d473cfe2b01cfc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5181
content:
"[...] average ecosystem carbon emissions, while major fire seasons can \r emit up to two-thirds of global ecosystem carbon (medium evidence, \r medium agreement)."


id: cad5300a2ee9b5c27e57710c80077e70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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content:
"Primary boreal and temperate forests also comprised net sources in \r the period 2001-2019; however, when including all tree age classes, \r boreal, temperate and tropical forests were net sinks (boreal -1.6 +- \r 1.1 Gt yr-1, temperate -3.6 +- 48 Gt yr-1), as growth exceeded permanent \r forest cover losses (Harris et  al., 2021), with boreal and temperate \r forests being much stronger sinks (Pan et al., 2011; Liu et al., 2015; \r Houghton and Nassikas, 2017). Estimates of carbon removals from \r remote sensing may provide more accurate estimates of boreal forest \r carbon balances than ESMs which overestimate regrowth after timber \r harvesting and other disturbance (Wang et  al., 2021a). Mortality \r of the boreal forest in British Columbia from mountain pine beetle \r infestations converted 374,000 km2\r  from a net carbon sink to a net \r carbon source (Kurz et al., 2008). Modelling suggests that a potential \r increase in water-use efficiency and regrowth could offset the losses in \r [...]"


id: a481d559b5a16c3452dc89e64ac37a75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26155
content:
"High biodiversity and ecosystem carbon generally occur together, with \r rainforests in the Amazon, Congo and Indonesia containing the largest \r above-ground vegetation carbon stocks (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini \r et al., 2012; Avitabile et al., 2016) and the highest vascular plant species \r richness (Kreft and Jetz, 2007) in the world. Above-ground ecosystem \r carbon and animal species richness show high correlation but also \r high spatial variability (Strassburg et al., 2010). Above-ground carbon \r is correlated to genus richness globally (Cavanaugh et al., 2014), but to \r species richness only in local areas (Poorter et al., 2015; Sullivan et al., \r 2017). Species richness generally increases vegetation productivity \r in the humid tropics while tree abundance increases productivity in \r drier conditions (Madrigal-Gonzalez et al., 2020). Across the Amazon, \r ~1% of tree species contain 50% of the above-ground carbon, due to \r [...]"


id: db22de71b4dd03b0111ede8b023fcf49
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] abundance and maximum height (Fauset et al., 2015). Above-ground \r carbon in tropical forests shows positive correlations to vertebrate \r species richness (P values not reported) (Deere et al., 2018; Di Marco \r et  al., 2018). In logged and burned tropical forest in Brazil, species "


id: 864c0e9f5e6b5db7b53a5f5285b701fe
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content:
"over two-thirds of deforestation from 1990 to 2005 (De Sy et  al., \r 2015; De Sy et al., 2019). Four sites in the Amazon also showed net \r carbon emissions in the period 2010-2018, from deforestation and \r fire (Gatti et  al., 2021). In the Amazon, deforestation emitted 0.17 \r +- 0.05 GtC yr-1 from 2001 to 2015 (Silva Junior et  al., 2020) while \r fires emitted 0.12 +- 0.14 GtC yr-1 from 2003 to 2015 (Aragao et al., \r 2018). An analysis of the Amazon carbon loss from deforestation and \r degradation estimated a loss of 0.5 Gt yr-1 in the period 2010 -2019, \r with degradation accounting for three-quarters (Qin et  al., 2021). \r Intact old-growth Amazon rainforest has been a net carbon sink from \r 2000 to 2010 (-0.45 Gt yr-1, min. 0.31, max. 0.57) (Hubau et al., 2020) \r but may have become a net carbon source in 2010-2019 (0.67 Gt, for \r the entire period, uncertainty not reported) (Qin et al., 2021). These \r factors combined--recent impacts of climate change on undisturbed \r [...]"


id: ae361f787b8a3dc81e8412a2f77c9d36
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27887
content:
"[...] forest, coupled with deforestation and agricultural expansion, along \r with associated intentional burning--have caused Amazon rainforest \r to become an overall net carbon emitter (medium confidence)."


id: fad2349dabfc65b21b690ee0c6d20414
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41505
content:
"Global terrestrial GPP increased 2% from 1951 to 2010 and continued \r increasing at least until 2016, with increased atmospheric CO2\r showing a greater influence than natural factors (Li et  al., 2017; \r Fernandez-Martinez et  al., 2019; Liu et  al., 2019a; Cai and Prentice, \r 2020; Melnikova and Sasai, 2020). Global forest area increased 7% \r from 1982 to 2016, mainly from forest plantations and regrowth in \r boreal and temperate forests in Asia and Europe (Song et al., 2018); \r regrowth in secondary forests >20  years old, mainly in boreal, \r temperate and subtropical regions, generated a net removal of \r 7.7 Gt yr-1 CO2 from the atmosphere from 2001 to 2019 (Harris et al., \r 2021). Vegetation growth that exceeds the modelled CO2 fertilisation, \r gaps in field data and incomplete knowledge of plant mortality and \r soil carbon responses introduce uncertainties into quantifying the \r magnitude of CO2 fertilisation (Walker et al., 2021). A combination of \r [...]"


id: 66af9ba047e2f889100f6708c4c51674
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] CO2 fertilisation of global vegetation and secondary forest regrowth \r has increased global vegetation productivity (medium evidence, \r medium agreement)."


id: 604f8e36206623cb6538d3bcde51dab8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14248
content:
"The relative increase in GPP per unit of increased atmospheric CO2\r declined from 1982 to 2015, indicating a weakening of any CO2\r fertilisation effect (Wang et  al., 2020c). Increased growth from CO2\r fertilisation has begun to shorten the lifespan of trees due to a trade-off \r between growth rate and longevity, based on analyses of tree rings of \r 110 species around the world (Brienen et al., 2020). Furthermore, water \r availability controls the magnitude of NPP (Beer et  al., 2010; Jung \r et al., 2017; Yu et al., 2017), including water from precipitation (Beer \r et al., 2010), soil moisture (Stocker et al., 2019), groundwater storage \r (Humphrey et al., 2018; Madani et al., 2020a) and atmospheric vapour \r (Novick et al., 2016; Madani et al., 2020b). Drought stress reduced NPP \r across tropical forests from 2000 to 2015 (Zhang et al., 2019b) and \r GPP in the tropics from 1982 to 2016 (Madani et al., 2020b). Drought \r [...]"


id: 6db5dddd53efea1fb696d8ca4551b978
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16560
content:
"[...] stress has also reduced GPP in some semiarid and arid lands (Huang \r et al., 2016; Liu et al., 2019a). In addition, nitrogen and phosphorus \r constrain CO2 fertilisation (Terrer et al., 2019), although phosphorus \r limitation of tropical tree growth is species-specific (Alvarez-Clare \r et al., 2013; Thompson et al., 2019). NPP has decreased during some \r time periods and in some regions where drought stress has exerted a \r greater influence than increased atmospheric CO2 (medium evidence, \r high agreement)."


id: ee5d3aa6c4600cdf2f3820c82b832c11
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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vector_id: 39310
content:
"New studies since AR5, with more sophisticated analyses designed \r to capture complex responses, indicate that past estimates of the \r proportion of species impacted by recent climate change were \r underestimates due to unspoken assumptions that local or regional \r warming should lead solely to poleward/upward range shifts and \r advancements of spring timing (high confidence) (Duffy et al., 2019). \r More complex analyses have documented cases of winter warming \r driving delayed spring timing of northern temperate species due to \r chilling requirements, and increased precipitation driving species' \r range shifts downslope in elevation, and eastward and westward in \r arid regions (high confidence). Further new studies have shown that \r phenological changes have, in some cases, successfully compensated \r for local climate change and reduced the extent of range shifts (medium \r confidence). The limited number of studies of this type make it difficult \r [...]"


id: 8959b88c7759f496cbbf4e3b07498582
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21340
content:
"Responses in freshwater species are consistent with responses in \r terrestrial species, including poleward and upward range shifts, earlier \r timing of spring plankton development, earlier spawning by fish and the \r extension of the growing season (high confidence). Observed changes \r in freshwater species are strongly related to anthropogenic climate \r change-driven changes in the physical environment (e.g., increased \r water temperature, reduced ice cover, reduced mixing in lakes, loss \r of oxygen and reduced river connectivity) (high confidence). While \r evidence is robust for an increase in primary production in nutrient \r rich lakes along with warming trends (high confidence), increasing or \r declining algal formations are lake-specific and are modulated through \r variability in weather conditions, lake morphology, changes in salinity, \r stoichiometry, land use and restoration measures and food web \r interactions. In boreal coniferous forest, there has been an increase \r [...]"


id: 3503b1766a3f919eea995b144198d041
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vector_id: 6573
content:
"[...] in terrestrial-derived DOM transported into rivers and lakes as a \r consequence of climate change (which has induced increases in runoff \r and greening of the Northern Hemisphere) as well as from changes in \r forestry practices. This has caused waters to become brown, resulting in \r an acceleration of upper-water warming and an overall cooling of deep \r water (high confidence). Browning may accelerate primary production \r through the input of nutrients associated with DOM in nutrient-poor \r lakes and increases the growth of cyanobacteria, which cope better \r with low light intensity (medium confidence) (Sections 2.4.2.1, 2.4.2.2, \r 2.4.2.3, 2.4.2.4)."


id: a7b18906df50f6688b11315748ef5cb7
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content:
"Some studies have combined two or three approaches for the \r assessment of climate change risk to biodiversity, in order to capture \r the advantages of each and avoid their limitations. Warren et al. (2013) \r used combinations of SDMs and trait-based approaches to estimate the \r proportions of species losing their climatically suitable ranges under \r the various future scenarios of climate and dispersal rate. Similarly, \r spatial projections of exposure to climate change were combined with \r traits to assess the vulnerability of sub-Saharan amphibians (Garcia \r et al., 2014). Laurance et al. (2012) combined 31 functional groups of \r species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, in order to \r assess both the ecological integrity and threats to protected tropical \r areas on a global scale. Keith et al. (2014) used a combination of three \r approaches (SDMs-trait-mechanistic) to determine how long before \r extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened, \r [...]"


id: 62632db0841e5adba5dde95c072f883e
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vector_id: 14592
content:
"In previous reports, risk assessed from the literature was generally \r based on estimates of overall range contractions with climate change. \r In AR4, extinction risk was carefully quantified: 'There is medium \r confidence that approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are \r likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average \r warming exceed 1.5-2.5degC (relative to mean temperatures from \r 1980-1999). As global average temperature increase exceeds about \r 3.5degC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of \r species assessed) around the globe.' These estimates approximately \r correspond to 50-80% reductions in range size (depending upon \r study), that this assessment equates with a 'high' and 'very high'\r extinction risk, respectively (IPCC, 2007). AR5 stated: 'a large fraction \r of terrestrial and freshwater species face increased extinction risk \r under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century, \r [...]"


id: 995c2dc9cf8673474168617945651438
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content:
"[...] especially as climate change interacts with other pressures (high \r confidence)' (Field et al., 2014). A series of multi-species and global \r analyses have been published since AR5, using both statistical models \r and trait-based approaches."


id: b0dd1a765b4ba95be907f9692d2ccff9
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content:
"Figure  2.6 |   Biodiversity loss for different areas at increasing levels of \r climate change. The higher the percentage of species projected to lose suitable \r climate in a given area, the higher the risk to ecosystem integrity, functioning and \r resilience to climate change. Warming levels are based on global levels (GSAT) above \r pre-industrial temperatures. Colour shading represents proportion of species for which \r the climate is projected to become sufficiently unsuitable that the species becomes \r locally 'endangered' and at high risk of local extinction within a given pixel across their \r current distributions at a given GSAT warming level, based on underlying data (Warren \r et  al., 2018) (modelled n = 119,813 species globally, with no dispersal, averaged \r over 21 CMIP5 climate models). Areas shaded in deep orange and red represent a \r significant risk of biodiversity loss (areas where climates become sufficiently unsuitable \r [...]"


id: f4165d39afa6d1af5684b38f68520014
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content:
"[...] that it renders >50% and >75% of species at high risk of becoming locally extinct, \r respectively). The maps of species richness remaining have been overlaid with a \r landcover layer (2015) from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change \r Initiative.  This landcover layer leaves habitats classified by the ESA as natural as \r transparent. Areas with a landcover identified as agriculture are 5% transparent, such \r that the potential species richness remaining if the land had not been converted for \r agriculture shows as pale shading of the legend colours (very pale yellow to very pale \r red). These paler areas represent biodiversity loss due to habitat destruction, but with \r a potential to be restored, with yellow shading having the potential for restoration to \r greater species richness than orange or red shading."


id: 82fbc32418c4fc4031d248a844a2d4f6
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content:
"'Species' extinction risk', estimated as at very high risk of extinction \r globally, i.e. becoming \"critically endangered\" (sensu IUCN) is shown \r in Figures 2.7 across 178 studies and in Figure 2.8a split by taxonomic \r group. The percentage of species at very high risk of extinction (median \r estimates and maximum likely range) will be 9% (max. 14%) at 1.5degC, \r 10% (max. 18%) at 2degC, 12% (max. 29%) at 3.0degC, 13% (max. 39%) \r at 4degC and 15% (max. 48%) at 5degC (Figure 2.7). Maximum estimates \r of species at very high risk of extinction reach 60% within the 95% \r quartiles, ie the very likely range, for 5degC GSAT warming. Among the \r groups containing the largest numbers of species at a very high risk of \r extinction for mid-levels of projected warming (3.2degC rise in GSAT) are: \r invertebrates (15%), specifically pollinators (12%), amphibians (11%, \r but 24% for salamanders) and flowering plants (10%) (Figure 2.8a). \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] All groups fare substantially better at 2degC, with extinction projections \r reducing to <3% for all groups, except salamanders at 7% (medium \r confidence) (Figure 2.8a)."


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content:
"Figure 2.7 |  Global assessment of species' extinction risks under different levels of warming. Graph shows a synthesis of climate-driven models of individual species \r projected to become at very high risk of extinction globally (i.e, becoming \"critically endandered\" sensu IUCN by losing >80% of their suitable climate space or through estimates \r of extinction risk from process-based models). The relationship between modelled projections of extinction (expressed as a proportion of species at a risk of extinction assessed \r in individual studies) and GSAT increase above the pre-industrial average. Data (global sample size n = 178 modelled estimates) were taken from a number of sources, including \r digitization of data points in Figure 2 in the synthetic analysis of (Urban, 2015) (note: unweighted for sample size) n = 126; Table 4.1 of AR4 WGII Chapter 2 (Fischlin et al., 2007), \r [...]"


id: d6c80178fb65e928643131ac569142ae
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"[...] n = 40; (Hannah et al., 2020) n = 6; and (Warren et al., 2018) n = 6. The quantile regression (which is robust to the non-normal distribution of the response variable, and less \r sensitive to data outliers) was chosen as a descriptive statistic to fit quantile estimates for levels relevant to informing likely (between the 0.17 and 0.83 quantiles, shaded in orange) \r and very likely ranges (between the 0.05 and 0.95 quantiles, shaded in green) relating extinction risk to GSAT increase (quantile regression implemented using the Barrodale \r and Roberts algorithm in XLSTAT). The roughly equivalent estimate of this risk as expressed in AR4 (Fischlin et al., 2007) is indicated by the dotted block indicating the medium \r confidence statement 'Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far (in an unbiased sample) are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction as global \r [...]"


id: ae0a7ebd01a64531fe74ccd41ac7d29f
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27861
content:
"[...] mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2-3degC above pre-industrial levels (medium confidence).' This box is open on the right side because AR4 estimates stipulated temperatures \r at or exceeding the given levels. Thick dark horizontal bars show the median values of percent of species at very high risk of extinction at 1.5degC, 2degC, 3degC, 4degC and 5degC, indicating \r that half of the data points lie above the bar and half below for a given level of global warming."


id: 1a75261b2f672515d0e716f70bdc8065
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content:
"(b) Species groups listed projected to be at a high risk of extinction, corresponding to the IUCN Red List criteria for a species classified as 'endangered' (v3.1) by losing >50% of \r its climatically suitable range area. For (a) and (b), values were calculated from the underlying data in (Warren et al., 2018). Values for each temperature are the mean values across \r 21 CMIP5 models. The grey band represents the high end of extinction risk from the 10th percentile of the climate models to show the maximum range of values, while the low end \r (90th percentile, 1.5degC) is not shown as it is too small to appear on the plots. Taxa marked with * represent potential benefits from adaptation, specifically dispersal at realistic rates \r (Warren et al., 2018); those with no * have dispersal rates that are essentially not detected in the spatial resolution of the models (20 km). See (Warren et al., 2018) for caveats \r [...]"


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"[...] and more details. Sample size for each group is as follows: 1) fungi (16187 species); 2) all plants (72399 species), broken down into sub-groups of plants: flowering plants (52310 \r species), timber species (1328 species), grasses (3389 species) and pines (340 species); 3) all invertebrates (33,949 species), broken down into sub-groups of invertebrates: annelid \r worms (155 species), flies (4809 species), beetles (7630 species), moths (6910 species), true bugs (1728 species), spiders (2212 species), all pollinators (1755 species), butterflies \r (1684 species), ants/bees/wasps (5914 species), dragonflies (599 species); 4) Chordates (12642 species), broken down into major groups: 4i) all amphibians (1055 species), \r broken down into sub-groups of amphibians: frogs (887 species) and salamanders (163 species); 4ii) reptiles (1850 species), snakes (1741 species) and turtles (94 species); 4iii) all \r [...]"


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vector_id: 39119
content:
"[...] mammals (1769 species), broken down into sub-groups of mammals: ungulates (80 species), bats (500 species), carnivores (107 species), 4iv) all birds (7968 species), broken down \r into sub-groups of birds: passeriforme birds (4744 species), and non-passeriforme birds (3224 species)."


id: 37ff5f0b88da594dbbc996730f539188
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7059
content:
"Multiple studies predict increases in disease incidence or geographic \r and phenological changes of pathogens, vectors and reservoir host \r species due to climate change with or without other non-climatic \r variables (Gonzalez et al., 2010; Moo-Llanes et al., 2013; Roy-Dufresne \r et al., 2013; Liu-Helmersson et al., 2014; Laporta et al., 2015; Ryan et al., \r 2015; Haydock et al., 2016; Hoover and Barker, 2016; Prist et al., 2017; \r Blum and Hotez, 2018; Dumic and Severnini, 2018; Hundessa et al., \r 2018; Ryan et al., 2019; Ryan et al., 2021). However, models predicting \r changes in infectious disease risk are complex and sometimes produce \r conflicting results and lack consensus (Caminade et al., 2014; Giesen \r et  al., 2020). For example, malaria is projected to increase in some \r regions of Africa, Asia and South America by the end of the 21st \r century if public health interventions are not sufficient, but is also \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] forecasted to decrease in some higher-risk areas (Cross-Chapter Box \r Illness in this chapter) (Peterson, 2009; Caminade et al., 2014; Ryan \r et al., 2015; Khormi and Kumar, 2016; Leedale et al., 2016; Murdock \r et al., 2016; Endo and Eltahir, 2020; Mordecai et al., 2020)."


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vector_id: 35038
content:
"Shifts in arid system structure and functioning that have been \r observed to date (Section 2.4.3.3) are projected to continue (medium \r confidence). These include widespread woody plant encroachment, \r notably in savanna systems in Africa, Australia and South America, \r and are attributed to interactions of LULCC, climate change and CO2\r fertilisation effects (Fensholt et al., 2012; Fang et al., 2017; Stevens \r et  al., 2017). Arid Mongolian steppe grassland did not respond to \r experimentally elevated CO2 (Song et al., 2019). Woody encroachment \r is projected to continue or not reverse in North American drylands \r (Caracciolo et  al., 2016) and southern African arid ecosystems \r (Moncrieff et al., 2014b). Dryland woody encroachment may increase \r carbon stocks, depending on emissions scenario (Martens et al., 2021), \r but reduce soil water and biodiversity of grassland-dependent species \r diversity (Archer et  al., 2017). Warm season (C4) grass expansion \r [...]"


id: b0bbb91ee26905b01cf4371b78a4f291
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28323
content:
"[...] into arid shrublands risks sudden ecosystem transformation due \r to introduced wildfire (Bradley et  al., 2016), a risk anticipated for \r grass-invaded desert ecosystems of Australia and the southwestern \r USA (Horn and St. Clair, 2017). Novel fire regimes in grassy shrublands \r have enhanced grass cover locally in the southern African Nama-Karoo \r (du Toit et al., 2015)."


id: b7e3f871dc66716c47056e3f12f55e4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29571
content:
"Substantial changes in vegetation structure and ecosystem processes \r are already happening (see Section 2.4). Many of these observations \r have already been projected to take place as early as at least IPCC AR3 \r (Rosenzweig et al., 2007), and can they now be increasingly tested for \r their robustness with observational evidence. These multiple changes \r in response to warming (and changes in precipitation and increasing \r atmospheric CO2 levels that go hand-in-hand with warming) are \r further expected for already relatively small additional temperature \r increases. In particular, in cold (boreal and tundra) regions, as well \r as in dry regions (high confidence), alterations of 2-47% of the areal \r extent of terrestrial ecosystems in scenarios of <2degC warming above \r pre-industrial levels have been projected, increasing drastically with \r higher-warming scenarios (Warren, 2011; Warlind et al., 2014). More \r recent work, applying also probabilistic methods, confirm the risk \r [...]"


id: 22f178798880f79e17c38cff27e33185
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3347
content:
"[...] of drastic changes in vegetation cover (e.g., forest to non-forest or \r vice versa) at the end of the 21st century even for approximately 2degC \r warming scenarios, especially in tundra, and also in tropical forest and \r savannah regions, with more subtle changes (within a given biome \r type) likely to occur in all regions (Ostberg et al., 2013; Ostberg et al., \r 2018). Model studies have found 5-20% of terrestrial ecosystems \r affected by warming of around 2degC-3degC, increasing to above one-third \r at a warming of 4degC-5degC (Ostberg et  al., 2013; Warszawski et  al., \r 2013)."


id: acfe0fca5262605248d7bffa62baa975
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27675
content:
"In general, vegetation types are projected to be moving into their \r 'neighbouring' climates, depending on whether temperature or \r precipitation is expected to be the predominant factor and how \r vegetation interacts with the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere \r (Warlind et  al., 2014; Scheiter et  al., 2015; Schimel et  al., 2015; \r Huntzinger et  al., 2017). For instance, boreal or temperate forest \r vegetation is simulated to migrate polewards, closed tropical (moist) \r forest is expected to transition towards dry tropical forest types, \r while climate-driven degradation might expand arid vegetation \r cover (Sections  2.5.2.2-2.5.2.9). However, 'novel ecosystems', that \r is, communities with no current or historical equivalent because of \r the novel combinations of abiotic conditions under climate change, \r are expected to be increasingly common in the future (medium \r confidence), although the regions where these novel ecosystems \r [...]"


id: 4ebeac9ca0ee14db97364bb485cbb8ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11130
content:
"[...] might emerge are still disputed (Reu et al., 2014; Radeloff et al., 2015; \r Ordonez et al., 2016). The possibility of these novel ecosystems and \r the communities that live within them are a challenge for current \r modelling of ecosystem shifts, and new approaches to conservation \r will be required that are designed to adapt to rapid changes in species \r composition and the ensuing challenges."


id: 3b9633e1f1ac83761f26326b8359fc70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7668
content:
"Worldwide, woody cover is increasing in savannas (Buitenwerf et al., \r 2012; Donohue et  al., 2013; Stevens et  al., 2017), as a result of \r interactions of elevated CO2 and altered fire and herbivory impacts, \r some of which stems from LULCC (high confidence)(see Section 2.4.3.5; \r Cross-Chapter Paper 3.2) (Venter et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2021). In some \r regions, altered climate may also contribute (Cross-Chapter Paper 3.2). \r Elevated CO2 benefits plants with C3 photosynthesis (often woody \r plants), more than C4 species (Moncrieff et al., 2014a; Scheiter et al., \r 2015; Knorr et  al., 2016a). Increases in woody vegetation in grassy \r ecosystems could provide some carbon increase (medium confidence) \r (Zhou et al., 2017; Mureva et al., 2018), but is expected to decrease \r biodiversity (Smit and Prins, 2015; Abreu et al., 2017; Andersen and \r Steidl, 2019) and water availability (Honda and Durigan, 2016; Stafford \r et  al., 2017) and alter ecosystem services like grazing and wood \r [...]"


id: 16bdabbd0290c234ffb2b624094e0f92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1213
content:
"The relative importance of climate, disturbance (e.g., fire/herbivory) \r and plant feedbacks in shaping present and future savanna \r distribution varies between continents (Lehmann et  al., 2014), \r which makes projections of changing the biome extent challenging \r (Moncrieff et al., 2016). It has been shown that simulation studies that \r do not account for CO2 interactions but only consider climate change \r impacts do not realistically capture the future distribution of savannas \r (high confidence) (Higgins and Scheiter, 2012; Moncrieff et al., 2016; \r Scheiter et al., 2020). Due to the continued strong effect of CO2 on \r tree and shrub-to-grass ratios in future, models suggest a loss of \r savanna extent and conversion into closed canopy forest/thicket and \r an expansion of savanna-type vegetation into arid grasslands (Warlind \r et al., 2014; Moncrieff et al., 2016). In arid savannas and their interface \r to grasslands, survival of woody vegetation (which may be stimulated \r [...]"


id: e4576981e6a99d33fc4a05eacb73e400
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37469
content:
"[...] to grow by increasing CO2) will depend on their capacity to survive \r potentially more severe and frequent droughts (Sankaran and Staver, \r 2019). Across a range of models, for RCP4.5 future climate change \r and CO2 concentrations, savanna expanse declines by around 50% \r (converting to closed canopy systems) by 2070 in Africa and South \r America, 25% in Asia and with small changes in Australia (Moncrieff \r et al., 2016; Kumar et al., 2021). Future fire-spread is expected to be \r reduced with increased woody dominance (Scheiter et al., 2015; Knorr \r et al., 2016b; Scheiter et al., 2020), feeding back to further increase \r tree-to-grass ratios (high confidence)."


id: b2bc1ecb05f9fecc1a291180f6979e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28685
content:
"Key factors affecting the future distribution of tropical humid and \r dry forests are amounts and seasonalities of precipitation, increased \r temperatures, prolonged droughts and droughted-moderated fires \r (robust evidence, high agreement) (Bonai et al., 2016; Corlett, 2016; \r Lyra et al., 2017; Anderson et al., 2018; da Silva et al., 2018; Fontes et al., \r 2018; O'Connell et  al., 2018; Aguirre-Gutierrez et  al., 2019; Bartlett \r et  al., 2019; Brando et  al., 2019; Stan and Sanchez-Azofeifa, 2019). \r The probability of severe drought is projected to quadruple in natural \r areas in Brazil with >2degC warming (Barbosa and Lakshmi Kumar, \r 2016; Marengo et al., 2020). Most multi-model studies assuming rapid \r economic growth/business-as-usual scenarios (A2, A1B and RCP8.5) \r show an increase in future woody biomass and areas of woody cover \r towards the end of the 21st century in temperate regions (Boit et al., \r 2016; Nabuurs et al., 2017) and tropical forests in East Africa (Ross \r [...]"


id: e05cb2e1872de1f029cb95050f75579f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36724
content:
"[...] et al., 2021) but a decrease in the remaining tropical regions (Anadon \r et al., 2014a; Boit et al., 2016; Lyra et al., 2017; Nabuurs et al., 2017; \r Maia et al., 2020). Terrestrial species are predicted to shift to cooler \r temperatures and higher elevations (Pecl et al., 2017). Tropical species \r are more susceptible to climate warming than temperate species \r (Rehm and Feeley, 2016; Sentinella et al., 2020). This susceptibility will \r be exacerbated by road-building increasing the ease of access into \r forests (Brinck et al., 2017; Taubert et al., 2018; Bovendorp et al., 2019; \r Senior et  al., 2019). Furthermore, most tropical cloud forest species \r are unable to invade grasslands and this will increase the risk of \r extinctions in tropical cloud forests (Rehm and Feeley, 2015)."


id: 7e4f02cbe041055300291ebc0a475947
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19385
content:
"The impact of unsustainable land use on tropical forests continues \r in all regions (see Cross-Chapter Paper 7). Projected climate changes \r will not only impact biodiversity but also the livelihoods of affected \r people (robust evidence, high agreement). Increased drought drives \r crop failures that cause local communities to expand their agricultural \r area by further clearing native forests (Desbureaux and Damania, \r 2018). Climate change is projected to enlarge the area of suitability \r for booming tree crops such as oil palm, acacia, Eucalyptus and \r rubber (Koninck et  al., 2011; Cramb et  al., 2015; Nath, 2016; Hurni \r et al., 2017; Li et al., 2017; Varkkey et al., 2018). An increase of 8% \r in the area of rubber plantations in Yunnan Province, China, between \r 2002-2010 to higher altitudes due to decreased environmental limits, \r has potentially increased pressure on the remaining biodiversity both \r within and outside of protected areas (Zomer et  al., 2014a). As a \r [...]"


id: ed47476bbf9aab7adea4e61fd6abffea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39122
content:
"[...] consequence, the suitable area for mammals is projected to be reduced \r by 47.7% (RCP2.6) and 67.7% (RCP8.5) by 2070, with large variability \r depending on the different species (Cross-Chapter Paper 7) (Brodie, \r 2016). To minimize these potential threats, the Yunnan provincial \r government has identified suitable areas for the establishment of \r national parks, including the Asian Elephant National Park since 2006. \r And the government of China developed a national park system in \r 2013 across the country."


id: b0b315e79d2b641d4d3402ef70ceb6aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28314
content:
"Most simulations predict a significant geographical shift of transition \r areas between tropical forests and savanna in the tropical and \r subtropical Americas and Himalayas (Anadon et  al., 2014a; Rashid \r et al., 2015). Forest dieback, as postulated for the Amazon region, does \r not occur in the majority of simulations (Malhi et al., 2009; Poulter et al., \r 2010; Rammig et al., 2010; Higgins and Scheiter, 2012; Huntingford \r et  al., 2013; Davies-Barnard et  al., 2015; Sakschewski et  al., 2016; \r Wu et al., 2016a). Model projections of future biodiversity in tropical \r forests are rare. Arguably, species are most vulnerable to climate \r change effects at higher altitudes or at the dry end of tropical forest \r occurrence (medium evidence, medium agreement) (Krupnick, 2013; \r Nobre et al., 2016; Trisurat, 2018). Tropical lowlands are expected to \r lose plant species as temperatures rise above species' heat tolerance, \r [...]"


id: aeb5803ba2e0927d39c47a43bb7045e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27975
content:
"[...] but could also generate novel communities of heat-tolerant species \r (robust evidence, high agreement) (Colwell et al., 2008; Trisurat et al., \r 2009; Trisurat et al., 2011; Krupnick, 2013; Zomer et al., 2014a; Zomer \r et al., 2014b; Sullivan et al., 2020; Pomoim et al., 2021)."


id: 44bb3c3698ea039f44c3d8cf57e1437c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9320
content:
"Increases in the extent, severity and duration of fires are expected \r in all peatland regions in the future due to temperature increases \r (Section  4.3.1.1), changes in precipitation patterns (Section  4.3.1.2) \r and increases in ignition sources (e.g., lightning) (Section  5.4.3.2), \r with associated rapid carbon losses to the atmosphere (medium \r evidence, high agreement) (Dadap et  al., 2019; Chen et  al., 2021a; \r Nelson et al., 2021). For example, drought has been linked to fires in \r Southeast Asian peatlands (Field et al., 2009) and there are predicted \r decreases in mean summer precipitation (10-30%) for high and low \r RCPs, particularly over the Indonesian region, by the mid and late \r 21st century (Section  12.4.2.2) (Tangang et  al., 2020; Taufik et  al., \r 2020). During wet years, the fire probability in Indonesian peatlands \r also significantly increases (by 15-40%) when temperatures in July \r to October surpass 0.5degC anomalies compared to the 1995-2015 \r [...]"


id: c9f267b03ba11c93be921e17919c1170
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32855
content:
"[...] baseline (Fernandes et al., 2017). Overall, current evidence suggests \r that peat carbon losses via fire have the potential to be equal to, or \r greater than, losses due to human peatland drainage and disturbance \r (limited evidence, high agreement) (Turetsky et al., 2015)."


id: 3e63a39b7af0e3ad7e64a9425c6a55ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8157
content:
"The overall effect of climate change on the extent of northern peatlands \r is still debated (limited evidence, low agreement). It is expected that \r climate change will drive the expansion of high-latitude peatlands \r poleward of their present distribution due to warming, permafrost \r degradation and glacier retreat, which could provide new land and \r conditions favourable for peat development (limited evidence, medium \r agreement) (Zhang et al., 2017b), as seen during the last de-glacial \r warming (robust evidence, high agreement) (MacDonald et al., 2006; \r Jones and Yu, 2010; Ratcliffe et al., 2018). Peatland area loss (shrinking) \r near the southern limit of their current distribution or in areas where \r the climate becomes unsuitable is also expected (medium evidence, \r medium agreement) (Section 2.3.4.3.2) (Finkelstein and Cowling, 2011 \r Gallego-Sala and Prentice, 2013; Schneider et  al., 2016; Muller and \r Joos, 2020) (Muller and Joos, 2021), but they could persist if moisture \r [...]"


id: cdda06251961b265482d9cd102db23d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33545
content:
"[...] is maintained via their capacity to self-regulate. In western Canada, \r a study suggests that peatlands may persist until 2100, even though \r the climate will be less suitable (Schneider et al., 2016). Simulations \r suggest that climate change-driven increases in temperature and \r atmospheric CO2 could drive reductions in the northern peatland area \r up to 18% (SSP1-2.6), 41% (SSP2-4.5) and 61% (SSP5-8.5) by 2300 \r (Muller and Joos, 2020). This is in contrast with the findings of northern \r peatland persistence and expansion under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 \r scenarios in 1861-2099 by another modelling study (Qiu et al., 2020). \r In the Tropics, the only available study suggests peatland area will \r increase until 2300, mainly due to increases in precipitation and the \r CO2 fertilisation effect (Muller and Joos, 2020; Muller and Joos, 2021)."


id: 28d70c100b40e00212895431d1c53c96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4403
content:
"Any climate change- or human-driven degradation of peatlands will \r also entail losses in water storage (limited evidence, high agreement) \r (Wooster et  al., 2012; Hirano et  al., 2015; Cole et  al., 2019; Taufik \r et  al., 2019) and biodiversity (Harrison, 2013; Lampela et  al., 2017; \r Renou-Wilson et  al., 2019). The environmental archive contained in \r peat that preserves records of vegetation, hydrology, climate change, \r pollution and/or human disturbances is also being lost as peatlands \r degrade (Kasischke and Turetsky, 2006; MacDonald et  al., 2006; \r Turunen, 2008; Field et  al., 2009; Flannigan et  al., 2009; Jones and \r Yu, 2010; Kasischke et al., 2010; Peterson et al., 2010; Finkelstein and \r Cowling, 2011; Rooney et al., 2012; Gallego-Sala and Colin Prentice, \r 2013; Lamarque et al., 2013; Hirano et al., 2014; Brouns et al., 2015; \r Turetsky et  al., 2015; Miettinen et  al., 2016; Schneider et  al., 2016; \r [...]"


id: f593443f27761128359bff25bc475b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40569
content:
"[...] Cobb et al., 2017; Fernandes et al., 2017; Itoh et al., 2017; Gallego-Sala \r et al., 2018; Greiser and Joosten, 2018; Ratcliffe et al., 2018; Dadap \r et al., 2019; Leifeld et al., 2019; Chaudhary et al., 2020; Hoyt et al., "


id: c3770a75d9a46e873d6d7b56dbfb37da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31666
content:
"For instance, even if warming achieved by 2100 remained constant \r after 2100, such committed responses continue to occur. These include: \r (1) continued Amazon forest loss (Boulton et al., 2017), consistent with \r results in Pugh et al. (2018) that found continued tropical forest cover \r loss across a range of models and simulation setups, and (2) across \r Africa, an increased shift towards woody C3 vegetation was found in \r equilibrium state, the overall response depending on the atmospheric \r CO2 concentration (Scheiter et  al., 2020). In Pugh et  al. (2018), the \r opposite was found for boreal forest cover, which showed a strong \r committed increase. The committed changes in vegetation composition \r correspond to large committed changes in terrestrial carbon uptake \r and losses (Boulton et al., 2017; Pugh et al., 2018; Scheiter et al., 2020), \r and would plausibly also appear in other ecosystem functioning and \r services. These studies point to the importance of having not only a \r [...]"


id: cf2c64da617be6e465c54e6294b8933a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33794
content:
"[...] multi-decadal but also a multi-century perspective when exploring \r the impacts of political decisions on climate change mitigation taken \r now. Even if climate-warming targets are met, published evidence \r so far suggests that fundamental changes in some ecosystems are \r likely as these correspond to well-understood ecosystem physiological \r responses that trigger long-term changes in composition."


id: a5cfa4b06e969ff513ab2718e5762fdf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26396
content:
"Models of vegetation response to climate project acceleration in the \r coming decades of observed increases in shrub dominance and boreal \r forest encroachment that have been driven by recent warming (Settele \r et  al., 2014), leading to a shrinking of the area of tundra globally \r (medium confidence) (Mod and Luoto, 2016; Gang et  al., 2017). \r Simulating changes in tundra vegetation is complicated by permafrost \r dynamics (e.g., the formation of thaw ponds and draining of existing \r ponds), changes in precipitation and low nutrient availability (which \r may promote the abundance of graminoids) (van der Kolk et al., 2016). \r Changes in vegetation, when combined with warming and increased \r precipitation effects on soil thawing and carbon cycling, are projected \r to modify GHG emissions and have biophysical feedbacks to regional \r and global climate. High uncertainty in modelled carbon cycle changes \r arises from differences between the vegetation models (Nishina et al., \r [...]"


id: 509c9fa8c3b3aa0251bb6320ee693ea7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11459
content:
"[...] 2015; Ito et  al., 2016). In addition, climate change is expected to \r strongly interact with other factors, such as fire, to further increase \r uncertainty in projections of tundra ecosystem function (Jiang et al., \r 2017)."


id: 1f2f7d8d4350c850968e84f642a458aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2695
content:
"To assess future climate change impacts on ecosystems, we use models to project their future distribution. Comparing the trends in \r the observed changes against the projections can help assess the strength of the model projections. In this box, we compare observed \r trends of changes in ecosystem structure to projections highlighted in previous IPCC reports, specifically AR3 (IPCC, 2001), AR4 (Fischlin \r et al., 2007) and AR5 (Settele et al., 2014). We use this to assess how well the projections are matching up with observed changes. The \r map represents studies documenting observed changes in common plant functional groups (e.g., trees, grasses and shrubs). Studies \r documenting changes in plant functional groups were collated from published papers in natural and semi-natural areas. Studies \r were included if climate change or interactions between climate change and land use showed a causal link to the observed change\r [...]"


id: cf9231061c5752dfa8cb3f5330c58959
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33880
content:
"[...] (Table SM2.4). Studies were excluded if the changes were only from landscape/land use transformation (e.g., deforestation). In each \r paper, we recorded the geographical location and type of functional change, and noted the causes. Observed changes are plotted onto a \r biome map derived from the WWF ecoregions database (Olson et al., 2001). Trends in changing plant functional types are good indicators \r of potential biome shifts and are used to assess how observations match up with projections."


id: 18074b2084445652dca4698c231ab7d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1433
content:
"Assessment: There is high agreement between observations and projections of tree death in temperate and boreal forests, with current \r projections (AR6) indicating this trend will continue (Sections 2.4.4.3, 2.5.3.3, 2.5.4). Forest death is most widely recorded in central \r Europe and western North America (Fig. Box 2.1.1). There is also very high agreement between observations and projections of woody \r encroachment in savannas, grasslands and tundra, with projections also indicating that this trend is likely to continue (Sections 2.4.3.5, \r 2.4.3.9, 2.5.2.5, 2.5.2.9, 2.5.4). Observations of desert-greening show good agreement with earlier projections. Patterns of desertification \r are also occurring, although the geographical match between projections and observations shows moderate agreement, likely due to \r the strong role of land use in this process. Projections of tropical forest expansion into mesic savannas and boreal forest expansion into \r [...]"


id: 3bf4c21c7e2453a4a5e21a7f99fc01b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7740
content:
"Projections indicate greater exposure of tropical rainforests, shrublands \r and grasslands, temperate conifer forests and grasslands, and tundra \r to novel climates (Hoffmann et al., 2019b; Elsen et al., 2020). A climate \r change scenario of ~3.5degC temperature increase by 2100 could expose \r 32% of the protected area in humid tropical forests (1.6 million km2\r  in \r 2000) to climate that would be novel to humid tropical-forest protected \r areas; by 2050, the climate currently present in humid tropical-forest \r protected areas could disappear from 0.6  million km2\r  (12% of the \r current total area) (Tabor et al., 2018). High rates of deforestation and \r climate change combined could expose 2% of the humid tropical-forest \r protected area (Tabor et al., 2018). Regional analyses under RCP8.5 \r also project the substantial disappearance of the current climate in \r protected areas in Bolivia, Chile and Peru (Fuentes-Castillo et  al., \r [...]"


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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35942
content:
"[...] 2020), Canada, Mexico and the USA (Batllori et al., 2017; Holsinger \r et al., 2019), China (Zomer et al., 2015), Europe (Nila et al., 2019) and \r Indonesia (Scriven et al., 2015). Projected climate change could expose \r an extensive part of the global protected area to disappearing and \r novel climate conditions (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter Paper 1)."


id: 86829588f771798fe5f820b8f9b2b6a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20834
content:
"In 2009, deforestation, agricultural expansion, overgrazing and \r urbanisation exposed one-third of the global protected area (6 million \r km2\r ) to intense human pressure, a 6% increase from 1993 (Venter et al., \r 2016; Jones et al., 2018). The exposure to observed climate change has \r not yet been quantified for protected areas globally, but research has \r analysed the spatial patterns and magnitudes of observed changes for \r the 360,000 km2\r  system of US national parks (Gonzalez et al., 2018) \r including the first national park in the world. From 1895 to 2010, \r mean annual temperature of the US national park area increased \r at a rate of 1degC +- 0.2degC per century, double the rate of the whole \r USA, and precipitation decreased in 12% of the national park area, \r compared with 4% for the whole USA, due to a high fraction of US \r national park area being in the Arctic, at high elevations, and in the \r arid southwestern USA (Gonzalez et al., 2018). In addition, analyses of \r [...]"


id: a0617d2b9d75c414c843e2f02fadf54b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25427
content:
"[...] weather-station measurements in and near six South African national \r parks found that the maximum temperature increased at a rate of \r 0.024degC +- 0.003degC yr-1 from 1960 to 2010 (Van Wilgen et al., 2016). \r While a substantial fraction of global protected area has been exposed \r to observed changes in human land cover, the global exposure to \r observed climate change is unquantified."


id: e255fa8edcb1af26d7def6a4bce77e42
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37107
content:
"Wildfire risks to people include death and destruction of their homes, \r respiratory illnesses from smoke (Ford et al., 2018; Machado-Silva et al., \r 2020), post-fire flooding from areas exposed by vegetation loss and \r degraded water quality due to increased sediment flow (Dahm et al., \r 2015) and the chemical precursors of carcinogenic trihalomethanes \r when water is later chlorinated for drinking (Section  2.5.3.7) (Uzun \r et al., 2020). Under RCP8.5 and shared socioeconomic pathway SSP3 \r (high population growth, slow urbanisation), the number of people \r living in fire-prone areas could increase by three-quarters to 720 million \r in 2100, in a projected global population of 12.4 billion people (Knorr \r et al., 2016b). Lower emissions under RCP4.5 could reduce the number \r of people at risk by 70 million. In these projections, human population \r growth increases human exposure to wildfires more than increases \r in burned area (Knorr et  al., 2016b). A global temperature increase \r [...]"


id: 48f6b24575be918b6b77d0aea33ade7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10056
content:
"[...] <2degC could increase global population exposure to wildfire by ~30% \r (Lange et al., 2020). Increased wildfire under continued climate change \r increases the probability of human exposure to fire and risks to public \r health (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: b109a9608cfb776226f05d049baa8ff2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28373
content:
"Terrestrial and freshwater protected areas can also serve as climate \r change refugia, that is, locations where suitable conditions may persist \r for the species into the future (e.g., Section 2.6.5.6). In Canada, Mexico \r and the USA, only a fraction of the protected area is located in potential \r climate change refugia under a 4degC temperature increase, estimated \r at 4% (Michalak et al., 2018) to 7% (Batllori et al., 2017). Potential \r refugia from biome shifts due to climate change under temperature \r increases of 1.8degC-3.4degC cover <1% of the area of US national parks \r (Gonzalez et al., 2010), a fraction that diminishes to near zero when \r climate change is combined with habitat fragmentation due to LUC \r (Eigenbrod et al., 2015). Protected areas in boreal ecosystems could \r serve as refugia for species shifting north in Canada (Berteaux et al., \r 2018) and Finland (Lehikoinen et al., 2019). Invasive species, habitat \r [...]"


id: 53c9925896ad9710fd56c90999bf6d89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] loss and other disturbances in protected areas could be lower than in \r unprotected areas across Europe (Gallardo et al., 2017), specifically in \r Spain (Regos et al., 2016), and also in Sri Lanka (Kariyawasam et al., \r 2020). Protected areas conserve refugia from climate change under \r a temperature increase of 4degC, which is important for biodiversity \r conservation but is limited to <10% of the current protected area \r (medium confidence)."


id: 17497a5125685c6050dc576c3e671303
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"and increase fire intensity by 90% (De Faria et al., 2017). Lower GHG \r emissions (RCP4.5) and reduced deforestation could reduce the risk of \r fires to a one-fifth increase in the area of high fire probability (Fonseca \r et al., 2019) and a 100-500% increase in burned area by 2100 (Le \r Page et al., 2017). Moreover, increased fire, deforestation and drought, \r acting via vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, increase the risk of \r extensive forest dieback and potential biome shifts of up to half of the \r Amazon rainforest to grassland, a tipping point that could release an \r amount of carbon that would substantially increase global emissions \r (Oyama and Nobre, 2003; Sampaio et al., 2007; Lenton et al., 2008; \r Nepstad et al., 2008; Malhi et al., 2009; Settele et al., 2014; Lyra et al., \r 2016; Zemp et  al., 2017a; Zemp et  al., 2017b; Brando et  al., 2020). \r Continued climate change, combined with deforestation, increases \r [...]"


id: 3574db7170aadfed2dbfde21451cabee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6652
content:
"[...] risks of wildfire and extensive forest dieback in the Amazon rainforest \r (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: 70de0def09e2b71233617342ffb3ef51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17120
content:
"In summary, under a high-emission scenario that increases global \r temperature 4degC by 2100, climate change could increase the global \r burned area by 50-70% and the global mean fire frequency by ~30%, \r with increases on one- to two-thirds and decreases on one-fifth of \r global land (medium confidence). Lower emissions that would limit the \r global temperature increase to <2degC would reduce projected increases \r of burned area to ~35% and projected increases of fire frequency to \r ~20% (medium confidence). Increased wildfire, combined with erosion \r due to deforestation, could degrade water supplies (high confidence). \r For ecosystems with an historically low fire frequency, a projected \r 4degC rise in global temperature increases risks of fire, contributing \r to potential tree mortality and conversion of over half the Amazon \r rainforest to grassland and thawing of the Arctic permafrost that \r could release 11-200 GtC that could substantially exacerbate climate \r [...]"


id: 61655aad6b5a3e54dc0f278e6cdcfacd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14434
content:
"In Amazon rainforests, the relatively lower buffering capacity for \r plant moisture during drought increases the risk of tree mortality \r and, combined with increased heat from climate change and fire from \r deforestation, the possibility of a tipping point of extensive forest \r dieback and a biome shift to grassland (Oyama and Nobre, 2003; \r Sampaio et al., 2007; Lenton et al., 2008; Nepstad et al., 2008; Malhi \r et al., 2009; Salazar and Nobre, 2010; Settele et al., 2014; Lyra et al., \r 2016; Zemp et al., 2017b; Brando et al., 2020). This could occur at a \r 4degC-5degC temperature increase above that of the pre-industrial period \r (Salazar and Nobre, 2010). Under RCP8.5, half the Amazon tropical \r evergreen forest could turn into grassland through drought-induced \r tree mortality and wildfire, but lower emissions (RCP4.5) could limit \r this loss to ~5% (Lyra et al., 2016). The decline in precipitation due \r to reduced evapotranspiration inputs after forest loss could cause \r [...]"


id: 9a1db6b00f2dc1a92f8bd3b21a93b94e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24348
content:
"[...] additional Amazon forest loss of one-quarter to one-third (Zemp \r et al., 2017a). Similarly, in Guinean tropical deciduous forest in Africa, \r climate change under RCP8.5 could increase mortality 700% by 2100 \r or 400% under lower emissions (RCP4.5; (Claeys et al., 2019). These \r projections indicate risks of climate change-induced tree mortality "


id: f7e7fcf292bb25a4338cda9200615076
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40992
content:
"Temperate and boreal forests possess greater diversity of physiological \r traits related to plant hydraulics, so they are more buffered against \r drought than tropical forests (Anderegg et al., 2018). Nevertheless, in \r temperate forests, drought-induced tree mortality under RCP8.5 could \r cause the loss of half the Northern Hemisphere conifer forest area by 2100 \r (McDowell et al., 2016). In the western USA, under RCP8.5, one-tenth \r of forest area is highly vulnerable to drought-induced mortality by 2050 \r (Buotte et  al., 2019). In California, increased evapotranspiration in \r Sierra Nevada conifer forests increases the potential fraction of the area \r at risk of tree mortality by 15-20% per degree Celsius (Goulden and \r Bales, 2019). In Alaska, fire-induced tree mortality from climate change \r under RCP8.5 could reduce the extent of spruce forest (Picea sp.) by \r 8-44% by 2100 (Pastick et  al., 2017). Under RCP8.5, tree mortality \r [...]"


id: 45c0d708429e42efc903814c3531fadb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9484
content:
"[...] from drought, wildfire and bark beetles could reduce the timber \r productivity of boreal forests in Canada by 2100 below the current \r levels (Boucher et al., 2018; Chaste et al., 2019; Brecka et al., 2020). \r In Tasmania, projected increases in wildfire (Fox-Hughes et al., 2014) \r increase the risk of mortality of mesic vegetation (Harris et al., 2018b) \r and threaten the disappearance of the long-lived endemic pencil pine \r (Athrotaxis cupressoides) (Holz et  al., 2015; Worth et  al., 2016) and \r temperate montane rainforest (Mariani et al., 2019). These projections \r indicate risks of climate change-induced tree mortality reducing some \r temperate forest areas by half under emissions scenarios of 2.5degC-4degC \r above the pre-industrial period (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 9e822934993abb25e22bf60449dbbe32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25110
content:
"Model projections suggest a reduction of permafrost extent and \r potentially large carbon losses for all warming scenarios (Canadell \r et al., 2021). Already a mean temperature increase of 2degC could reduce \r the total permafrost area extent by about 5-20% by 2100 (Comyn-Platt \r et al., 2018; Yokohata et al., 2020). Associated CO2 losses in the order of \r 15 Gt up to nearly 70 Gt by 2100 have been projected across a number \r of modelling studies (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2015; Comyn-Platt \r et  al., 2018; Yokohata et  al., 2020). Limiting the global temperature \r increase to 1.5degC versus 2degC could reduce projected permafrost \r CO2 losses by 2100 by 24.2 Gt (median, calculated for a 3-m depth) \r (Comyn-Platt et al., 2018). Losses are possibly underestimated in the \r studies that consider only the upper permafrost layers. Likewise, the \r actual committed carbon loss may well be larger (e.g., eventually a loss \r [...]"


id: 8163c3017ec45a7a5312bbc4360c9d3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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content:
"[...] of approx. 40% of today's permafrost area extent if climate is stabilised \r at 2degC above pre-industrial levels) due to the long time scale of warming \r in deep permafrost layers (Chadburn et al., 2017). It is not known at \r which level of global warming an abrupt permafrost collapse (estimated \r to enhance CO2 emissions by 40% in 2300 in a high-emissions scenario) \r compared to gradual thaw (Turetsky et  al., 2020) would have to be \r considered an important additional risk. Large uncertainties arise also \r from interactions with changes in surface hydrology and/or northward \r migrating woody vegetation as climate warms, which could dampen \r or even reverse projected net carbon losses in some regions (McGuire \r et al., 2018a; Mekonnen et al., 2018; Pugh et al., 2018). Overall, there \r is low confidence on how carbon-permafrost interactions will affect \r future carbon cycle and climate, although net carbon losses and thus \r [...]"


id: bb64f7c5ac35955bf7da2fb84492295a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30186
content:
"[...] positive (amplifying) feedbacks are likely (Sections  2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.5) \r (Shukla et al., 2019). See also WGI AR6 (Canadell et al., 2021) for a \r discussion on impacts of higher-emission and warming scenarios."


id: 5c84d1b12fc482319f6779cefe95abdf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13538
content:
"Globally, increasing atmospheric CO2 enhances the terrestrial sink but \r temperature increases constrain it, reflecting the biological process \r understanding highlighted in previous IPCC reports (high confidence). \r Analyses of atmospheric inversion model output and spatial climate data \r indicate a sensitivity of net ecosystem productivity to CO2 fertilisation of \r 3.1 +- 0.1 Gt to 8.1 +- 0.3 Gt per 100 ppm CO2 (~1degC increase) and a \r sensitivity to temperature of -0.5 +- 0.2 Gt to -1.1 +- 0.1 Gt per degree \r Celsius (Fernandez-Martinez et al., 2019). The future of the global land \r carbon sink (Section  2.4.4.4) nevertheless remains highly uncertain \r because (i) of regionally complex interactions of climate change and \r changes in atmospheric CO2 with vegetation, soil and aquatic processes, \r (ii) episodic events such as heat waves or droughts (and related impacts \r through mortality, wildfire or insects, pests and diseases) (Section 2.5.3.2, \r [...]"


id: be87d938a51ee43b5a1c713028207b72
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vector_id: 30784
content:
"[...] 2.5.3.3) are so far only incompletely captured in carbon cycle models, \r (iii) the legacy effects from historic LUC and environmental changes \r are incompletely captured but likely to decline in future and (iv) lateral \r carbon transport processes such as the export of inland waters and \r erosion are incompletely understood and modelled (Pugh et al., 2019a; \r Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Krause et al., 2020; Canadell et al., 2021)."


id: 2b6701021b2fdd2029a78ec845345ced
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4885
content:
"Peatland carbon is estimated as about 550-1000 Gt in northern \r latitudes (many of these peatlands would be found in permafrost \r regions) (Turetsky et al., 2015; Nichols and Peteet, 2019) and >100 Gt \r in tropical regions (Turetsky et al., 2015; Dargie et al., 2017). For both \r northern mid- and high-latitude and tropical peatlands, a shift from \r contemporary CO2 sinks to sources were simulated in high-warming \r scenarios (Wang et  al., 2018a; Qiu et  al., 2020). Due to the lack of \r large-scale modelling studies, there is low confidence for climate change \r impacts on peat carbon uptake and emissions. The largest risk to tropical \r peatlands is expected to arise from drainage and conversion to forestry \r or agriculture, which would outpace the impacts of climate change (Page \r and Baird, 2016; Leifeld et al., 2019; Cooper et al., 2020). The magnitude \r of possible carbon losses is uncertain, however, and depends strongly \r [...]"


id: 5e457528e3eb80f4436751d499e32fbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13874
content:
"Bond, 2015; Knorr et al., 2016a). As a consequence, enhanced woody \r cover is expected to occur in the future, especially in mesic savannas, \r while in xeric savannas an increase in woody cover would occur in \r regions with enhanced precipitation (Criado et al., 2020). Even though \r semiarid regions have dominated the global trend in land CO2 uptake \r in recent decades (Ahlstrom et  al., 2015), so far, most studies that \r investigated future climate change impacts on savanna ecosystems have \r concentrated on changes in the extent of land area affected (2.5.2.5) \r rather than on carbon cycling, with medium confidence for increasing \r woody cover:grass ratios (Moncrieff et al., 2014a; Midgley and Bond, \r 2015; Moncrieff et al., 2016; Criado et al., 2020). Increases in woody \r vegetation in what is now grass-dominated would possibly come with \r a carbon benefit, for instance, it was found that a broad range of future \r climate and CO2 changes would enhance vegetation carbon storage on \r [...]"


id: 2d54902fdaf37f755fc153e076b89f4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5261
content:
"[...] Australian savannas (Scheiter et al., 2015). Results from a number of \r field experiments indicate, however, that impacts on total ecosystem \r carbon storage may be smaller due to a loss in below-ground carbon \r (Coetsee et al., 2013; Wigley et al., 2020). Nunez et al. (2021) critique \r existing incentives to promote the invasion of non-native trees into \r treeless areas as a means of carbon sequestration, raising doubts about \r the effects on fire, albedo, biodiversity and water yield (see Box 2.2)."


id: c27950ab52421544b9a0f8c97c9ffa0e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31498
content:
"is expected to lead to shifts in consumer-resource interactions \r that also contribute to losses of top predators or top herbivores \r (Sections  2.4.2.2, 2.5.1.3, 2.5.4; (Lurgi et  al., 2012; Damien and \r Tougeron, 2019). Cascading trophic effects triggered by top predators \r or the largest herbivores propagate through food webs and reverberate \r through to the functioning of whole ecosystems, notably altering \r productivity, carbon and nutrient turnover and net carbon storage \r (medium confidence) (Wilmers and Schmitz, 2016; Sobral et al., 2017; \r Stoner et al., 2018). Across different field experiments, the ecosystem \r consequences of the presence or absence of herbivores and carnivores \r have been found to be quantitatively as large as the effects of other \r environmental change drivers such as warming, enhanced CO2, fire and \r variable nitrogen deposition (medium confidence) (Hooper et al., 2012; \r Smith et  al., 2015). Some local and regional modelling experiments \r [...]"


id: 461d0823610d2e94a8da70059ad5ea27
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9553
content:
"[...] have begun to explore animal impacts on vegetation dynamics and \r carbon and nutrient cycling (Pachzelt et al., 2015; Dangal et al., 2017; \r Berzaghi et al., 2019). Turnover rate is the chief factor that determines \r future land-ecosystem carbon dynamics and hence carbon-climate \r feedbacks (Friend et al., 2014). To improve projections, it is imperative \r to better quantify the broader role of carnivores, grazers and browsers \r and the way these interact in global studies of how ecosystems \r respond to climate change. "


id: 63ba75671d648d076a6f4a002716626d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14831
content:
"Substantial climate change-driven impacts on tropical tree cover and \r vegetation type are projected in all studies, irrespective of whether or \r not the degree amounts to a forest \"dieback\" (Sections 2.4.3.6, 2.4.4.3, \r 2.5.2.6, 2.5.3.3) (Davies-Barnard et al., 2015; Wu et al., 2016a; Zemp \r et al., 2017a; Canadell et al., 2021) . Accordingly, models also suggest \r a continuation of tropical forests acting as carbon sinks (Huntingford \r et al., 2013; Mercado et al., 2018). A recent study combining field plot \r data with statistical models (Hubau et al., 2020) indicates that, in the \r Amazonian and possibly also in the African forest, the carbon sink in \r above-ground biomass already declined in the three decades up to 2015. \r This trend is distinct in the Amazon whereas data from Africa suggests a \r possible decline after 2010. The authors estimate the vegetation carbon \r sink in 2030-2040 to decline to zero+-0.205 PgC yr-1 in the Amazon and \r [...]"


id: d6b7298be85fddb6ff8758bd6995ca9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35080
content:
"[...] to 0.26+-0.215 PgC yr-1 in Africa (a loss of 14% compared to the present). \r Their results suggest that, over time, CO2 fertilisation is outweighed by \r the impacts of higher temperatures and drought that enhance tree \r mortality and diminish growth. The degree of thermal resilience of \r tropical forests is still uncertain, however (Sullivan et al., 2020)."


id: ee76c15206215298168166a33af83d78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39329
content:
"The possibility of feedbacks and interactions between climate drivers \r and biological systems or ecological processes was identified as a \r significant emerging issue in AR5, and has since also been highlighted \r in the SRCCL and the SR1.5. It is virtually certain that land cover \r changes affect regional and global climate through changes to albedo, \r evapotranspiration and roughness (very high confidence) (Perugini \r et al., 2017). There is growing evidence that biosphere-related climate \r processes are being affected by climate change in combination \r with disturbance and LULCC (high confidence) (Jia et al., 2019). It is \r virtually certain that land surface change caused by disturbances such \r as forest fires, hurricanes, phenological changes, insect outbreaks and \r deforestation affect carbon, water and energy exchanges, thereby \r influencing weather and  climate (very high confidence) (Table  2.4; \r Figure  2.10) (Bright et  al., 2013; Brovkin et  al., 2013; Naudts et  al., \r [...]"


id: 58de3ba6fdeb92fb243bd6ef3aae7717
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12876
content:
"Feedbacks can be positive or negative (i.e., amplify or dampen the \r original forcing), vary spatially and seasonally, and act over large \r geographic areas and long time periods (more than decades), \r making them difficult to observe and quantify directly (Schimel et al., \r 2015; Canadell et al., 2021). Due to the positive impacts of CO2 on \r vegetation growth and ecosystem carbon storage (high confidence) \r (Sections  2.4.4.4, 2.5.5.4) (Canadell et  al., 2021), the associated \r climate feedback is negative (i.e., increased removal of atmospheric \r CO2 and dampened warming, compared to an absence of the \r feedback). By contrast, projected global losses of carbon in warmer \r climates (Canadell et al., 2021) imply a positive climate feedback. WGI \r (Canadell et  al., 2021) assesses an overall increase in land carbon \r uptake through the 21st century. However, the overall strength of \r the carbon cycle-climate feedback remains very uncertain. One of \r [...]"


id: d76c49ff31f6d82a52322a7ce1946c9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35206
content:
"[...] the underlying reasons may be complex interactions with ecosystem \r water balance and nitrogen and phosphorous availability, which "


id: a0cc12345dc210258d781229afabeab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25503
content:
"Climate-induced shifts towards forests in what is currently tundra \r would be expected to reduce regional albedo especially in spring, but \r also during parts of winter when trees are snow-free (whereas tundra \r vegetation would be covered in snow), which amplifies warming \r regionally (high confidence) (Perugini et al., 2017; Jia et al., 2019). Trees \r would also enhance momentum absorption compared to low tundra \r vegetation, thus impacting surface-atmosphere mixing of latent \r and sensible heat fluxes (Jia et al., 2019). Boreal forests insulate and \r stabilize permafrost and reduce fluctuations of ground temperature: \r the amplitude of variation of ground surface temperatures was 28degC at \r a forested site, compared to 60degC in nearby grassland (Section 2.5.2.7) \r (Bonan, 1989; Stuenzi et al., 2021a; Stuenzi et al., 2021b). Likewise, a \r shift in moist tropical forests towards vegetation with drought-tolerant \r traits could possibly reduce evapotranspiration, increase albedo, \r [...]"


id: 75296a12d206148188b79c32c263493d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17848
content:
"Overall, uncertainty as to the quantity of carbon fluxes within fresh\u0002water ecosystems and between terrestrial and freshwater systems, and \r subsequent emissions to the atmosphere remains very high (Raymond \r et al., 2013; Catalan et al., 2016; Stanley et al., 2016; Evans et al., 2017; \r Drake et al., 2018; Seekell et al., 2018; Sanches et al., 2019; Bodmer \r et al., 2020; Keller et al., 2020; Canadell et al., 2021) (see Table SM2.1.). \r Projections of carbon fluxes are, for example, challenged by the com\u0002plex interaction between rising water temperatures, loss of ice, changes \r in hydrology, ecosystem productivity, increased extreme events and \r variation in terrestrial-matter transport. While we are still short of \r empirical data, particularly in the Tropics (DelSontro et al., 2018), im\u0002provements in sensor technology (Eugster et al., 2011; Gonzalez-Valen\u0002cia et al., 2014; Maeck et al., 2014; Delwiche et al., 2015) and the use \r [...]"


id: ac7c46862287e72a41db2476b8992ab5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27587
content:
"[...] of statistically robust survey designs (Beaulieu et al., 2016; Wik et al., \r 2016) have improved the accuracy of measurements of GHG emissions \r in freshwater ecosystems. Global networks such as the Global Lakes \r Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) increasingly allow a global \r view of carbon fluxes, thereby improving estimates of the contribution \r of freshwater ecosystems to global GHG emissions to the atmosphere."


id: 4c97117a3de171f946a2d18910a8e88b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10740
content:
"In summary for freshwater systems, Drake et  al. (2018) aggregated \r contemporary estimates of CO2 and CH4 emissions from freshwater \r ecosystems with global estimates made by Raymond et al. (2013), and \r arrived at an estimate of 3.9 PgC yr-1. Rivers and streams accounted \r for 85% and lakes and reservoirs for 15% of the emissions (Raymond \r et  al., 2013). This trend will continue under scenarios of nutrient \r loading to inland waters over the next century where increased CH4\r emission of inland water has an atmospheric impact of 1.7-2.6 PgC/\r CO2-eq y-1, which is equivalent to 18-33% of annual CO2 emissions \r from burning fossil fuels (medium evidence, medium agreement) \r (Beaulieu et al., 2019). For comparison, annual uptake of CO2 in land \r ecosystems is estimated as 3.4 (+- 0.9) PgC yr-1 (Friedlingstein et al., \r 2020). The freshwater numbers combine CO2 and CH4 and are thus not \r directly comparable. However, they are indicative of the importance \r [...]"


id: 12b0dce43b0dfe8a9226cf3ee8cc61a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 489
content:
"Based on a 10% increase in precipitation, (de Wit et  al., 2016) \r estimated an increased mobilisation of organic carbon from soils to \r freshwaters of at least 30%, demonstrating the importance of climate \r wetting for the carbon cycle. Browning negatively affects the taste of \r drinking water and this may be difficult to address (Kothawala et al., \r 2015; Kritzberg et al., 2020). It also often reduces attractiveness for \r recreational purposes, especially swimming (Arthington and Hadwen, \r 2003; Keeler et  al., 2015). Based on a worst-case climate scenario \r until 2030, (Weyhenmeyer et al., 2016) projected an increase in the \r browning of lakes and rivers in boreal Sweden by a factor of 1.3. The \r chemical character of DOM, as modified by climate change (Kellerman \r et al., 2014), determines its amenability to removal by water treatment \r (Ritson et al., 2014). Therefore, in order to provide safe and acceptable \r drinking water, more advanced, more expensive and more energy/\r [...]"


id: 97c65f24df533bbad02756929819c892
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23919
content:
"Diminished vegetation cover following wildfires (Section  2.5.3.2) \r and tree mortality (Section  2.5.3.3) can reduce long-term water \r infiltration, increase soil erosion and flash floods and release sediment \r that degrades drinking water quality. Widlfires increase impacts of \r extreme precipitation events due to climate change, which contribute \r to increased surface runoff and hence increased risks of land erosion, \r landslides and flooding (Ebel et  al., 2012; Robinne et  al., 2020). \r Under current conditions, nearly half the global land area is at a \r moderate-to-high risk of water scarcity due to wildfires (Robinne et al., \r 2018; Robinne et al., 2020). From 1984 to 2014, wildfires in the western \r USA affected 6-11% of stream and river length (Ball et  al., 2021). \r Under a high-emissions scenario of a 3.5degC temperature increase, \r post-fire erosion across the western USA could double sedimentation \r and degrade drinking water quality in one-third of watersheds by 2050 \r [...]"


id: b512b05eeb2a5c86048c99d7f1bfc7f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29092
content:
"[...] (Sankey et al., 2017). In Brazil, post-fire vegetation loss tends to increase \r runoff, reduce infiltration and reduce groundwater recharge and flow \r of springs (Rodrigues et al., 2019). Runoff from wildfires can contain \r DOC precursors for the formation of carcinogenic trihalomethanes \r during chlorination of water for drinking (Uzun et al., 2020) as well \r as chromium, mercury, selenium and other toxic trace metals (Burton \r et al., 2016; Burton et al., 2019)."


id: df06006803785c810a948c1400f41773
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36490
content:
"Species are the fundamental unit of ecosystems. As species become \r rare, their roles in the functioning of the ecosystem diminishes and \r disappears altogether if they become locally extinct (high confidence)\r (Isbell et al., 2015; Chen et al., 2018b; van der Plas, 2019; Wang et al., \r 2021b). Loss of species and functional groups reduces the ability of \r an ecosystem to provide services, and lowers its resilience to climate \r change (high confidence) (Section  2.6.7) (Elmqvist et  al., 2003; \r Cadotte et al., 2011; Harrison et al., 2014; Carlucci et al., 2020). For \r example, among crop systems, a key factor to succesful pollination is \r the phylogenetic diversity of bee species available, more than total \r abundances (Drossart and Gerard, 2020). Because many species have \r obligate interactions with, or are resources for, other species (e.g., \r predators and their prey, insects and their host plants, plants and \r [...]"


id: 9a9298441d37ccd619bb4f2a173dd3bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:51
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24437
content:
"[...] their mycorrhizae symbionts), the loss of one species affects the risk \r to another species, and, ultimately, ecosystem functioning (Mahoney \r and Bishop, 2017)"


id: bcdd912b23ffdfba025c4b65626df1c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30468
content:
"River banks, riparian vegetation and macrophyte beds play important \r roles in erosion control through reducing current velocities, increasing \r sedimentation and reducing turbidity (Madsen et al., 2001). Rates of \r flow in rivers affect inland navigation (Vari et  al., 2022). Changing \r seasonality in snow-dominated basins is expected to enhance \r hydropower production in winter but decrease it during summer (Doell \r et  al., 2015). Glacier melt changes hydrological regimes, sediment \r transport and bio-geochemical and contaminant fluxes from rivers \r to oceans, profoundly influencing ecosystem services that glacier-fed \r rivers provide, particularly the provision of water for agriculture, \r hydropower and consumption (Milner et  al., 2017). Loss of glacial \r mass and snowpack has already impacted flow rates, quantities and \r seasonality (Chapter 4, in this report) (Hock et al., 2019). Meltwater \r yields from glacier ice are likely to increase in many regions during the \r [...]"


id: 1b0ac101b9f6d61a37fbaea744d21d03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1957
content:
"[...] next decades but decrease thereafter, as glaciers become smaller and \r smaller and finally disappear (Hock et al., 2019)."


id: 312f8ad789ee9b4a8d450d3ddee2e206
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5904
content:
"Key risks assessed here are interconnected. Extinction of species is an \r irreversible impact of climate change and has negative consequences \r on ecosystem integrity and functioning, and the risks increase steeply \r with even small rises in global temperature (Section 2.5.1.3, Figure 2.6, \r Figure  2.7, Figure  2.8). Continued climate change substantially \r increases the risk of carbon losses due to wildfires, tree mortality from \r drought and insect pest outbreaks, peatland drying, permafrost thaw \r and changes in the structure of ecosystems; these could exacerbate \r self-reinforcing feedbacks between emissions from high-carbon \r ecosystems and increasing global temperatures (medium confidence). \r Thawing of Arctic permafrost alone could release 11-200 GtC (medium \r confidence). Complex interactions of climate changes, LULCC, carbon \r dioxide fluxes and vegetation changes will regulate the future carbon \r balance of the biosphere, processes incompletely represented in ESMs. \r [...]"


id: 35af9c4440c672d540962d917d63be8b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6698
content:
"[...] The exact timing and magnitude of climate-biosphere feedbacks and \r the potential tipping points of carbon loss are characterised by broad \r ranges of the estimates, but studies indicate that increased ecosystem \r carbon losses could cause extreme future temperature increases \r (medium confidence). (Sections  2.5.2.7, 2.5.2.8, 2.5.2.9, 2.5.3.2, \r 2.5.3.3, 2.5.3.4, 2.5.3.5, Figure 2.10, Figure 2.11, Table 2.4, Table 2.5, \r Table SM2.2, Table SM2.5)"


id: abd3d930068d41a8c921f0448d8b2003
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27474
content:
"Among numerous risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems from \r climate change, this chapter identified five phenomena as the most \r fundamental risks of climate change to ecosystem integrity and the \r ecosystem services that support human well-being that are also \r quantified sufficiently to estimate risk thresholds with at least medium \r confidence : Biodiversity loss (global losses of species from ecosystems), \r ecosystem structure change, increased tree mortality, increased wildfire, \r and ecosystem carbon losses and (Table 2.5, Table SM2.5; Figure 2.11). \r These key risks form part of the overall assessment of key risks in \r Chapter 16. The AR5 chapter on terrestrial ecosystems (Settele et al., \r 2014) had also identified three of these key risks--species extinctions, \r tree mortality and ecosystem carbon losses--and a fourth--invasion \r by non-native species. This chapter assesses, in multiple sections, the \r [...]"


id: 85a8d83e6d7c0d6f8b555d1dd99ca944
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20658
content:
"[...] impacts of climate change on invasive species with respect to different \r processes or systems (e.g., in Section  2.4.2.3.3), and includes this \r aspect here in a new broader key risk of ecosystem structure change. \r The AR5 included wildfire as a mechanism of the key risk of ecosystem \r carbon loss. Based on additional research and field experience with \r major wildfires since then, this chapter sets wildfire apart as a specific \r key risk to ecosystem integrity and human well-being. These different "


id: 81908b9f3b4fa381729396a56f79765f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19921
content:
"Table 2.5 |  Key risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems from climate change. This IPCC chapter assesses these as the most fundamental risks of climate change to ecosystem \r integrity and the ecosystem services that support human well-being. Climate factors include the primary variables governing the risk. Non-climate factors include other phenomena \r that can dominate or contribute to the risk. Detection and attribution comprise cases of observed changes attributed predominantly, or in part, to climate change, with some \r cases being attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Sections 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.4.5, Table 2.2, Table 2.3, Table SM2.1). Adaptation includes options to address the risk \r (Section 2.6). Risk transitions (defined in Figure 2.11) indicate an approximate GSAT increase, relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), to move from one level of risk to \r [...]"


id: 493fd551ca09263dfde72999e13ba47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10106
content:
"[...] the other as well as assessed confidence. Table SM2.5 provides details of the temperature levels for risk transitions. Both tables provides details for the key risk burning embers \r diagram (Figure 2.11)."


id: e54dbcdfe83873cfe58010fff73dd384
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37644
content:
"Global biodiversity loss: Increasing numbers of plant and animal species at high extinction risk (species becoming endangered with projected loss of >50% of range). The transition from \r non-detectable risk to moderate risk was based on the observed documentation of hundreds of local population extinctions, major declines in many sub-species and two to 92 global species \r extinctions that are attributable to climate change (with medium confidence or higher). The transition from moderate risk to high risk of biodiversity loss is centred around 1.5degC, based on a \r few taxa that are known from their basic biology and habitat requirements to be at high risk of extinction (endangered) at 1.5degC, and on the increasing number of taxa that are projected to \r have a high extinction risk affecting >10% of the species in that taxa (1000 times the natural background rates of extinction). The transition to very high risk of biodiversity loss comes from \r [...]"


id: de70a297a58358406fe5b62ef5281a2d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36401
content:
"[...] the increasing number of taxa projected to have >20% of species at a high risk of extinction. In the worst-case scenario (10th percentile of the models), some of the taxa show >50% of the \r species at a high risk of extinction. These assessments are also weighted by role the species in the taxa play in performing ecosystem services (both to the ecosystems and to humans, e.g., \r pollinators, detritivores). There is high confidence for the moderate risk threshold because it is based on observed trends attributed to climate change. There is medium confidence for future \r projections since, for the purpose of developing this burning embers diagram, these risk thresholds are based on one large study (covering >119,000 species) for which there were multiple \r warming scenarios considered, and primarily on the loss of suitable climate. Based on Sections 2.4.2, 2.5.1, 2.6.1, 2.6.6, Table 2.3, Figure 2.6, Table SM2.1 and Table SM2.2."


id: a1bac5dc9cfe7340590167251038a461
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25674
content:
"Ecosystem structure change: increasing risk of large-scale changes in ecosystem structure. Ecosystem structural change with most information derived for tropical forests, boreal forests, \r savannas and tundra for both observations and future projections. The transition from non-detectable risk to moderate risk is based on detected changes attributable to climate change or \r to interactions between changing disturbance regime, climate and rising CO2. These changes have already been observed at 0.5degC above pre-industrial levels, with shifts initially detected \r in boreal forests, tundra and tropical grassy ecosystems. The transition from moderate risk to high risk is centred around 1.5degC, based on widespread global observations (at a current GSAT \r of 1.09degC above pre-industrial levels) that agree with projected future impacts with at least 10% area of key ecosystems being affected (Box 2.1). Overall, there is medium confidence in \r [...]"


id: 865a816af97bb7681810dfea9de3ef3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20801
content:
"[...] projections. This is based on existing observations and some projections that have a high confidence of risk for several ecosystems, but data and projections are not available for all biomes, \r thus lowering overall confidence to medium confidence. The transition from high risk to very high risk occurs when >50% of multiple ecosystems are projected to experience shifts in \r structure. (Sections 2.4.2.3, 2.4.3, 2.4.5, 2.5.2, Box 2.1, Figure Box 2.1.1, Table Box 2.1.1, Table SM2.2, Table SM2.3, Table SM2.4, Table SM2.5)"


id: ef106237e688f174513cbdc57d634b31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39430
content:
"Tree mortality: tree mortality that exceeds natural levels degrades habitat for plant and animal species, increases carbon emissions and reduces water supplies for people. Anthropogenic \r climate change caused three cases of drought-induced tree mortality in the period 1945-2007 in western North America, the African Sahel and north Africa in temperate and tropical \r ecosystems. Increased pest infestations and wildfires due to climate change also caused much of the recent tree mortality in North America. These changes occurred at GMST increases of \r 0.3degC-0.9degC above those in the pre-industrial period. Models project increasingly extensive drought-induced tree mortality at continued temperature increases of 1degC-2degC. Models project \r risks of mortality of up to half the forest area in different biomes at temperature increases of 2.5degC-4.5degC. In Amazon rainforests, insufficient plant moisture reserves during drought increase \r [...]"


id: 885a3921fad249deb5fc8e8c85888043
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21152
content:
"[...] the risk of tree mortality, and, combined with increased fire from climate change and deforestation, the risk of a tipping point of massive forest dieback and a biome shift to grassland. \r (Sections 2.4.4.3, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.3.3, 2.5.3.5)"


id: ef2b1ac9478f190220cafc20a4ad9bcf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39450
content:
"Wildfire: increasing risk of wildfire that exceeds natural levels, damaging ecosystems, increasing human diseases and deaths and increasing carbon emissions. Field evidence shows that \r anthropogenic climate change has increased the area burned by wildfire above natural levels across western North America in the period 1984-2017, increasing burned area up to 11 times \r in one extreme year and doubling burned area over natural levels in a 32-year period. Burned area has increased in the Amazon, the Arctic, Australia and parts of Africa and Asia, consistent \r with but not formally attributed to anthropogenic climate change. These changes have occurred at GMST increases of 0.6degC-0.9degC. Empirical and dynamic global vegetation models project \r increases in burned area and fire frequency above natural levels on all continents under continued climate change, the emergence of an anthropogenic signal from natural variation in \r [...]"


id: 176aed1a73823b117d47adae260563af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1341
content:
"[...] fire weather for a third of the global area and increases of burned area in regions where fire was previously rare or absent, particularly the Arctic tundra and Amazon rainforest, at global \r temperature increases of 1.5degC-2.5degC. Models project up to a doubling of burned area globally and wildfire-induced conversion of up to half the area of the Amazon rainforest to grassland \r at temperature increases of 3degC-4.5degC. (Sections 2.4.4.2, 2.5.3.2)"


id: f75fd885298b688ccaf61df0aa9f28e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40898
content:
"Ecosystem carbon loss: increasing risk of ecosystem carbon losses that could substantially raise the atmospheric carbon dioxide level. Measurements have detected emissions of carbon \r from boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems in places where increases in wildfire and tree mortality have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, at GMST increases of \r 0.6degC-0.9degC above the pre-industrial period. Many factors govern the carbon balance of ecosystems, so changes have not been attributed to climate change. Tropical forests and Arctic \r permafrost contain the highest ecosystem stocks of above- and below-ground carbon, respectively. Due to deforestation and forest degradation, primary tropical forests currently emit more \r carbon to the atmosphere than they remove. Wildfires in the Arctic are contributing to permafrost thaw and soil carbon release. An emissions scenario of 2degC increase could thaw ~15% \r [...]"


id: a11b0604b10098a8706f81bb8c535b17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25569
content:
"[...] of permafrost area and emit 20-100 GtC by 2100. Under emissions scenarios of 4degC global temperature increase, models project possible tipping points of conversion of half the Amazon \r rainforest to grassland and thawing of Arctic permafrost that could release 11-200 GtC which could substantially exacerbate climate change (Sections 2.4.3, 2.4.4.3, 2.4.4.4, 2.5.2.7-10, \r 2.5.3.2-5, Figure 2.9, Figure 2.10, Figure 2.11, Table 2.4, Table 2.5, Table SM2.2, Table SM2.3, Table SM2.5)."


id: d3b753dbb05fc6ae1949807bcc1a06b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34588
content:
"Figure 2.11 |  Key risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems from climate change. This IPCC chapter assesses these as fundamental risks of climate change to \r ecosystem integrity and the ecosystem services that support human well-being, based on observed impacts and future risks of: (far-left) \"biodiversity loss\" refers to losses of animal \r and plant species from different ecosystems globally, with resulting declines in ecosystem integrity, functioning and resilience (Section 2.4.2.1, 2.4.2.2, 2.5.1.3.3); (middle-left) \r \"structure change\" refers to major changes occurring in ecosystem structure (Sections 2.4.3, Box 2.1, 2.5.2, Figure 2.9, Figure Box 2.1.1, Table Box 2.1.1, Table SM2.5); (middle) \r \"tree mortality\" refers to tree mortality exceeding natural levels (2.4.4.3, 2.5.3.3); (middle- right) \"wildfire increase\" refers to wildfire exceeding natural levels (Section 2.4.4.2, \r [...]"


id: 3bc0d377964538200a284c765c2d3348
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7698
content:
"[...] 2.5.3.2); (far-right) \"carbon loss\" refers to ecosystem carbon losses that could occur abruptly and substantially raise atmospheric carbon dioxide (Sections 2.4.3.6-2.4.3.9, 2.4.4.4, \r 2.5.2.6-2.5.2.10, 2.5.3.4, 2.5.3.5). This burning embers diagram shows impacts and risks in relation to changes in GSAT, relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Risk \r levels reflect current levels of adaptation and do not include more interventions that could lower risk. The compound effects of climate change, combined with deforestation, \r agricultural expansion and urbanisation as well as air, water and soil pollution and other non-climate hazards could increase risks. Tables 2.5 and SM2.5 provide details of the key \r risks and temperature levels for the risk transitions."


id: b747dbb1bd458564e991f39ddb17227e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29462
content:
"Human health and well-being are highly dependent on the 'health' of nature. Biodiversity--the variety of genes, \r species, communities and ecosystems--provides services that are essential for human health and productive \r livelihoods, such as breathable air, drinkable water, productive oceans and fertile soils for growing food and fuels. \r Natural ecosystems also help store carbon and regulate climate, floods, disease, pollution and water quality. The \r loss of species, leading to reduced biodiversity, has direct and measurable negative effects on all of these essential \r services, and therefore on humankind. A recent demonstration of this is the decline of pollinator species, with \r potential negative effects on crop pollination, a fundamental ecosystem function crucial for agriculture. The loss of \r wild relatives of the domesticated varieties that humans rely on for agriculture reduces the genetic variability that \r [...]"


id: 30fb349cecf431a1aba931cf70c68fee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5866
content:
"[...] may be needed to support the adaptation of crops to future environmental and social challenges."


id: f3b2cb708290e7412e0d35270391f646
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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"Most of this section therefore focusses on human interventions to \r build the resilience of ecosystems, enable species to survive or to \r adjust management to climate change. Vulnerability is, in many cases, \r exacerbated by the degraded state of many ecosystems as a result of \r human exploitation and LUC, leading to the fragmentation of habitats, \r the loss of species and impaired ecosystem function. This interaction \r between climate change and environmental degradation means \r that protecting ecosystems in a natural or near-natural state will be \r an important pre-requisite for maintaining resilience and give many \r species the best chance of persisting in a changed climate (Belote \r et al., 2017; Arneth et al., 2020; Ferrier et al., 2020; Franca et al., 2020). \r Protection from degradation, deforestation and exploitation is also \r essential to maintain critical ecosystem services, including carbon \r storage and sequestration and water supply (Dinerstein et al., 2020; \r [...]"


id: f7bb3182ccd9a0ad484133cb63d43678
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"services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people to \r adapt to climate change (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological \r Diversity, 2020). EbA aims to maintain and increase the resilience and \r reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and people in the face of the \r adverse effects of climate change (Vignola et al., 2009). NbS is a broader \r term which is not restricted to climate change, and is also often used to \r refer to climate change mitigation; it has been defined by the IUCN as \r 'Actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified \r ecosystems that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively, \r simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits' \r (Cohen-Shacham et al., 2016). This widely accepted definition excludes \r actions which use the natural environment to solve human problems \r but do not provide benefits for biodiversity, and is closely linked to the \r [...]"


id: bf9281a7578ec6174ba853bb7e3108cc
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"[...] concept of the Ecosystem Approach. NbS is not a universally accepted \r term, but it is being increasingly used in the scientific literature. It is a \r concept which recognises the importance of biodiversity in ecosystem \r service provision, and offers the opportunity to address climate change \r and loss of biodiversity together in an efficient integrated way (Chong, \r 2014; Seddon et al., 2020a; Ortiz et al., 2021). Given that the focus of \r this chapter is on adaptation, we primarily use the term EbA as it is \r more specific, but we do so understanding that it can be regarded as a \r subset of NbS. The wider concept of NbS for climate change adaptation \r and mitigation is covered in a cross-chapter box on the topic (see \r Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter)."


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"that it does not already inhabit. It is very improbable that evolutionary \r responses would be sufficient to prevent species extinctions in the case \r of that species losing its climate space entirely on a regional or global \r scale (section 2.4.2.8) (Parmesan and Hanley, 2015). At the highest \r risk are the world's most cold-adapted species (whose habitats are \r restricted to polar and high mountain-top areas). Examples include the \r polar bear (Regehr et al., 2016), 'sky-island' plants in the Tropics (Kidane \r et  al., 2019), mountain-top amphibians in Spain (Enriquez-Urzelai \r et al., 2019), mountain-top lichens in the Appalachians (USA) (Allen \r and Lendemer, 2016) and silverswords in Hawaii (Krushelnycky et al., \r 2013). However, there is potential for using evolutionary changes \r to enhance the adaptive capacity of target species, as is being done \r on the Great Barrier Reef by translocating symbionts and corals that \r [...]"


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"[...] have survived recent intense heat-induced bleaching events into areas \r that have had large die-off (Rinkevich, 2019). Multiple studies have \r assessed when and how evolution might be able to help wild species \r adapt to climate change (Ratnam et al., 2011; Sgro et al., 2011)."


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"There are a variety of mechanisms which promote the resilience of \r ecosystems through persistence, recovery and reorganisation (Falk \r et al., 2019). Changes in the balance of different plant species within \r a community can maintain the persistence of the community itself, \r maintaining its value as a habitat for other species and providing \r ecosystem services. In some cases, there are negative feedback \r mechanisms between biological and physical processes; for example, \r in peatlands, lowered water tables resulting from drier conditions \r can lead to reduced permeability of peat, increasing rates of water \r loss (Page and Baird, 2016). There are limits to this resilience and the \r concept of tipping points beyond which ecosystems change state, and \r returning to the original state has been subject of much recent research \r (van Nes et al., 2016). There is clear evidence that the degradation of \r ecosystems has reduced their resilience and that restoration can help \r [...]"


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"[...] to reduce risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services, discussed below \r (see Section  2.6.2, 2.6.3). However, as the rate of climate change \r increases, the limits of this approach will start to be reached, and "


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"A variety of approaches have been identified as potential adaptation \r measures which people can take to reduce the risks of climate change \r to biodiversity. (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009 ), quoted in AR5, identified \r 113 categories of recommendation for adaptation from a survey of \r 112 papers and reports. Since then, the literature has expanded with \r thousands of relevant publications. Whilst there is increasing interest in \r adaptation for biodiversity conservation and a wide range of plans and \r strategies, there is less evidence of these plans being implemented. \r Since AR5, a number of studies, predominantly from Europe and North \r America, have investigated the extent to which adaptation has been \r integrated into conservation planning and is being implemented on a \r local and regional scale (Macgregor and van Dijk, 2014; Delach et al., \r 2019; Prober et al., 2019; Clifford et al., 2020; Barr et al., 2021; Duffield \r [...]"


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"[...] et al., 2021). A common pattern in these studies is that vulnerability \r has been assessed and potential adaptation actions identified, but \r implementation has been limited beyond actions to improve ecological \r conditions which may increase resilience on a local scale."


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"Protecting and restoring natural processes is a general principle for \r maintaining and building resilience to climate change for biodiversity \r (Timpane-Padgham et  al., 2017). One element of this is ensuring \r naturally functioning hydrology for wetlands and river systems \r (Table 2.6), which is particularly important in a context of changing \r rainfall patterns and increased evapotranspiration. An important \r development in approaches to conservation over recent decades has \r been the concept of re-wilding (Schulte To Buhne et  al., 2021); this \r encompasses a number of elements of restoring natural processes, \r including the reintroduction of top predators, larger conservation \r areas, and less prescriptive outcomes than many previous conservation \r measures. There are elements of re-wilding which may well contribute \r to building resilience to climate change, but it will be increasingly \r important to factor climate change adaptation into the planning of \r [...]"


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"The most consistently cited climate change adaptation measure for \r species is increasing connectivity to facilitate the colonisation of new \r areas. This reflects the fact that many species' habitats are highly \r fragmented in areas with more intensive land management, which \r prevents them naturally changing their range to track changing \r climatic conditions. Advances and innovations in modelling techniques \r can support decision-making about connectivity (Littlefield et  al., \r 2019). There is evidence from empirical and modelling studies that \r species can disperse more effectively in better-connected areas in \r terrestrial habitats (Keeley et al., 2018). The issues are different in more \r natural landscapes--species may still be threatened in intrinsically \r isolated habitats, such as mountain tops, but connectivity cannot \r be created here in the same way. Evidence suggests that increased \r connectivity will only benefit a subset of species, probably those \r [...]"


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"[...] which are intermediate-habitat specialists that are able to disperse \r (Pearce-Higgins and Green, 2014). Generalists do not require corridors \r or stepping stones, while many corridors or stepping stones will not be \r of sufficient quality to be used by most habitat specialists. There should \r also be a caveat to the general principle that increasing connectivity is \r a benefit for climate change adaptation. It can increase the spread of \r invasive, pest and disease-causing species into newly suitable regions. \r In some places, isolated refugia may better allow vulnerable species \r and biological communities to survive."


id: fc5d70fc68a33620096a3bc62d80246d
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"Although direct assessments of the effectiveness of adaptation actions \r are rare, since AR5, there have been an increasing number of empirical \r analyses of how different land use and management can influence the \r vulnerability of species and habitats. As climate change often interacts \r with other factors including ecosystem degradation and fragmentation \r (Oliver et al., 2015a), actions to address these other interacting factors \r is expected to build resilience to climate change. Table 2.6 summarises \r evidence that supports the main categories of proposed adaptation \r measures. We have taken an inclusive approach and included studies \r that address extreme weather events such as droughts, which may \r be exacerbated by climate change, as well as long-term changes in \r climate variables. We have not distinguished between studies in \r which climate change adaptation was an explicit focus and those in \r which lessons for adaptation can be learnt, that is, when studies were \r [...]"


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"[...] conducted for other reasons but inform the assessment of the impacts \r of actions identified as potential adaptation measures."


id: 747ac30f75049190d3c2249ca733b693
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"There are many different approaches to increasing connectivity, \r ranging from increasing the overall area of suitable habitat to \r 'corridors' and 'stepping stones', with different strategies likely to \r be more effective for different species and circumstances (Keeley \r et  al., 2018). Connectivity can also be important in increasing \r the resilience of populations to extreme climatic events (Newson \r et  al., 2014; Oliver et  al., 2015b). Within freshwater environments, \r the connectivity of watercourses is essential. Fluvial corridors are \r necessary to ensure the survival of migrating fish populations, even \r without climate change; with climate change, connectivity becomes \r crucial for relatively cold-adapted organisms to migrate upstream to \r colder areas. Connectivity is also important for the larvae of benthic \r invertebrates to be able to drift downstream and hence to disperse \r (Brooks et  al., 2018); for adult benthic invertebrates, riparian and \r [...]"


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"[...] terrestrial habitat features can potentially affect dispersal. Connectivity \r within river and wetland systems for some species can also mediated \r by more mobile animal species such as fish and birds (Martin-Velez \r et al., 2020). Which factors are the most important in either promoting \r their colonisation of new sites or persisting in situ will differ between \r species and locations. Some general principles have been recognised \r and can guide conservation policy and practice (Natural England and \r RSPB, 2020; Stralberg et al., 2020), but this will often require additional \r investigation and planning based on an individual understanding of \r the niches of specific species."


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"Protected areas--areas of land set aside for species and habitat \r protection with legal protection from development or exploitation--\r have been a cornerstone of nature conservation for many years. Their \r effectiveness under a changing climate has been the subject of debate \r and investigation. There is now a large body of evidence demonstrating \r that colonisations by range-shifting species are more likely to occur at \r protected sites than at non-protected sites for a wide range of taxa \r (e.g., Thomas et  al., 2012; Gillingham et  al., 2015) including across \r continents (Pavon-Jordan et  al., 2020). This is probably because, \r by protecting large areas of natural and semi-natural habitats, they \r provide suitable places for colonising species (Hiley et al., 2013) which \r may not be available in the surrounding landscape. Although the \r evidence for protected areas being associated with reduced extinctions \r is weaker, the finding by Gillingham et  al. (Gillingham et  al., 2015) \r [...]"


id: 7f06de9cc2c9afedaf7038c61954ca1f
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"[...] that protected sites were associated with reduced extinction rates at \r low latitudes and elevations is strongly suggestive that they can help \r species' persistence in the face of climate change."


id: ebe396b1a5c57ceee51764b14fdaa788
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"The evidence that species can persist in microclimatic refugia where \r suitable conditions for them are maintained locally (e.g., because \r of variations in topography) has increased in recent years. This has \r opened up the potential to include refugia in conservation plans \r and strategies to facilitate the local survival of species (Jones et al., \r 2016; Morelli et al., 2016; Morelli et al., 2020), for example, targeting \r management actions (Sweet et  al., 2019) aimed at supporting \r populations of species. This is likely to become an important aspect \r of climate change adaptation for biodiversity conservation in future. It \r is also possible to manipulate microclimate, for example, by creating \r shelters for birds' nests; see Case Study in 2.6.5.5 of African penguins; \r (Patino-Martinez et  al., 2012). One specific approach of this sort \r is the planting or retention of trees and wooded corridors to shade \r watercourses (Thomas et al., 2016). Riparian shading can also possibly \r [...]"


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"[...] help to reduce phytoplankton and benthic diatom growth in smaller \r streams and rivers (Halliday et al., 2016)."


id: 4f6b70ed087c719842fc4a4f3cb74ba0
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"It is intrinsically difficult to assess the effectiveness of climate change \r adaptation measures, the benefit of which will be realised in the years \r and decades ahead (Morecroft et al., 2019). Nevertheless, taking into \r account the wide range of evidence reported above, including the \r theory, modelling and observations of the impacts of climate change \r in contrasting circumstances, it is possible to make an overarching \r assessment that appropriate adaptation measures can reduce the \r vulnerability of many aspects of biodiversity to climate change \r (robust evidence, high agreement). It is also clear, however, that to \r be most effective and avoid unintended consequences, measures \r need to be carefully implemented by taking into account specific local \r circumstances (robust evidence, high agreement) and include the \r management of inevitable changes (robust evidence, high agreement). \r It is also clear that while there are now many plans and strategies for \r [...]"


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"[...] adapting biodiversity conservation to climate change, many have yet \r to be implemented fully (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 55047197eac2d090b3c0a785efe670e2
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"Restoring coasts, rivers and wetlands to reduce flood risk have probably \r seen the largest investment in EbA and it is becoming an increasingly \r accepted approach in some places (e.g., case studies in Sections 2.6.5.2, \r 2.6.5.7), although significant social, economic and technical barriers \r remain (Wells et al., 2020; Bark et al., 2021; Hagedoorn et al., 2021). \r Natural flood management (NFM) encompasses a wide range of \r techniques in river systems and at the coast and has been used in \r varied locations around the world. In tropical and subtropical areas, \r the restoration of mangroves to reduce the risk of coastal flooding \r is a widely advocated, evidence-based approach (e.g., (Hoye et  al., \r 2013; Sierra-Correa and Kintz, 2015; Powell et al., 2019)). In temperate \r regions, salt marsh is a similarly important habitat (Spalding et  al., \r 2014). Both provide buffering against SLR and storm surges. Managed \r [...]"


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"[...] realignment of the coast, by creating new habitats, can lead to a loss \r of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but it can protect them and \r the services they provide by reducing the risks of catastrophic failure \r from hard-engineered sea defences."


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"EbA includes a range of different approaches. Examples include \r restoring coastal and river systems to reduce flood risk and improve \r water quality, and the creation of natural areas within urban areas to \r reduce temperatures through shading and evaporative cooling. EbA \r is closely linked with a variety of other concepts such as ecosystem \r services, natural capital and disaster risk reduction (DRR). EbA \r was becoming a well-recognised concept at the time of AR5 but \r implementation was still at an early stage in many cases. Since then, \r pilot studies have been assessed and EbA projects have been initiated \r around the world. The evidence base continues to grow (Table 2.7), \r and this has led to increasing confidence in approaches which have \r been shown to work leading to further expansion in some countries \r (Table 2.7). However, this is not uniform and there is relatively little \r synthesis across disciplines and regions (Seddon et  al., 2020a). \r [...]"


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"[...] Chausson et  al. (2020) used a systematic mapping methodology to \r characterise 386 published studies. They found that interventions \r in natural or semi-natural ecosystems ameliorated adverse climate \r change impacts in 66% of cases, with fewer trade-offs than for more \r artificial systems such as plantation forest. However, the evidence base \r has substantial gaps. Most of the evidence has been collected in the \r Global North, and there is a lack of robust, site-specific investigations \r into the effectiveness of interventions compared to alternatives and \r more holistic appraisals that account for broader social and ecological \r outcomes."


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"In river systems (Iacob et al., 2014), management of both the catchments \r and the channel itself is important: restoring natural meanders in \r canalised watercourses and allowing the build-up of woody debris \r can slow flows rates; restoring upstream wetlands or creating them \r in urban and peri-urban situations can store water during flood events \r if they are in the right place in a catchment (Acreman and Holden, \r 2013; Ameli and Creed, 2019; Wu et al., 2020). There is less data on \r the potential for NFM in tropical compared to temperate catchments. \r However, (Ogden et al., 2013) showed that flooding was reduced from \r a secondary forested catchment area compared to those which were \r pasture or a mosaic of forest, pasture and subsistence agriculture. EbA \r approaches to reduce flooding can be applied within urban areas as \r well as in rural catchments, as in Durban, South Africa (Section 2.6.5.7), \r but effectiveness will depend on EbA being implemented at a sufficient \r [...]"


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"[...] scale and in the right locations (Hobbie and Grimm, 2020; Costa et al., \r 2021). This may, in turn, provide protection to downstream urban \r communities."


id: 8db4e4fa03de2dd09fdd564de35c524b
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"EbA can operate on a range of different scales, from local to catchment \r to region. On the local scale, there is a variety of circumstances in \r which microclimates can be managed and local temperatures lowered \r by the presence of vegetation (Table 2.7), and these EbA techniques are \r now being used more widely. In both urban and agricultural situations, \r shade trees are a traditional technique which can be applied to \r contemporary climate change adaptation. As reported in Section 2.6.2 \r above, shading of watercourses can lower temperatures, which can \r allow species to survive locally; as well as supporting diversity, it can \r help to maintain important fisheries, including those of salmonid fish \r (O'Briain et al., 2020). Within cities, green spaces, including parks, local \r nature reserves and green roofs and walls can also provide cooling as \r a result of evapotranspiration (Bowler et al., 2010a; Aram et al., 2019; \r [...]"


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"Whilst policy interest is growing and there is an increasing deployment \r of EbA, there is still a long way to go in delivering its full potential \r (Huq and Stubbings, 2015) and significant institutional and cultural \r barriers remain (Huq et al., 2017; Nalau et al., 2018). Nevertheless, it is \r increasingly clear that EbA can offer a portfolio of effective measures \r to reduce the risks for people of climate change at the same time as \r benefitting biodiversity (robust evidence, high agreement), providing \r that such measures are deployed with careful planning in a way \r that is appropriate for local ecological and societal contexts (robust \r evidence, high agreement). This chapter has identified risks to species, \r communities, ecosystems and ecosystem services from climate change, \r all of which increase with each increment of Global Warming Level \r (2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.3, 2.5.4). There is therefore a risk to Ecosystem-based \r [...]"


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"[...] Adaptation measures in some circumstances and this risk increases \r progressively above 1.5degC of warming."


id: 6fbb5880a1ed192bd2a1139eb6ef7276
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content:
"Low-probability events can have a very high impact (e.g., the \r transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from wild animals to humans, causing \r the Covid-19 pandemic ). A robust disease risk reduction policy would \r include utilising One Biosecurity (Meyerson and Reaser, 2002; Hulme, \r 2020; MacLeod and Spence, 2020) or One Health (Monath et  al., \r 2010; Deem et al., 2018; Destoumieux-Garzon et al., 2018; Zinsstag \r et  al., 2018) approaches with actions to reduce disease risk across \r multiple sectors and from a variety of anthropogenic drivers, including \r climate change, even if there is high uncertainty in projected risk \r (see Cross-Chapter Boxes ILLNESS in this chapter, COVID in Chapter \r 7 and DEEP in Chapter 17). Kraemer et al. (2019) found that vector \r importation was a key risk factor and that the focus should be on \r preventing the introduction of invasive species. Furthermore, many \r neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are also VBDs, and the UN SDG of \r [...]"


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"[...] good health and well-being explicitly calls for increased control and \r intervention with a focus on emergency preparedness and response \r (Stensgaard et al., 2019a)."


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"Climate change is altering the life cycles of many pathogenic organisms and changing the risk of transmission of vector- and water-borne \r infectious diseases to humans (high confidence). The rearrangement and emergence of some diseases are already observed in temperate\u0002zone and high-elevation areas and coastal areas (medium confidence to high confidence, depending upon region). Shifts in the geographic \r and seasonal range suitability of pathogens and vectors are related to climatic-impact drivers (warming, extreme events, precipitation \r and humidity) (very high confidence), but there are substantial non-climatic drivers (LUC, wildlife exploitation, habitat degradation, public \r health and socioeconomic conditions) that affect the attribution of the overall impacts on the prevalence or severity of some vector- and \r water-borne infectious diseases over recent decades (high confidence). Adaptation options that involve sustained and rapid surveillance \r [...]"


id: 839b5197aef668bcca0b0ed614e15fc0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20300
content:
"[...] systems as well as the preservation and restoration of natural habitats with their associated higher levels of biodiversity, both marine and \r terrestrial, will be key to reducing the risk of epidemics and the large-scale transmission of diseases (medium confidence)."


id: fa708ebdfcc1e0c2b94936545482e086
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41428
content:
"Since AR5, further evidence is showing that climate-related changes in the geographic and seasonal range suitability of pathogens \r and vectors and the prevalence or new emergence of vector- and water-borne infectious diseases have continued across many regions \r worldwide and are sustained over decadal timescales (low confidence to high confidence, depending upon region)(Sections 2.4.2.5, \r 3.5.5.3, 7.2, 7.3, 9.10.1.2.1) (Harvell et al., 2009; Garrett et al., 2013; Burge et al., 2014; Guzman and Harris, 2015; Baker-Austin et al., \r 2018; Watts et al., 2019; Semenza, 2020; Watts et al., 2021). Ecosystem-mediated infectious diseases at risk of increase from climate \r change include water-borne diseases associated with pathogenic Vibrio spp. (e.g., those causing cholera and vibriosis) and harmful algal \r blooms (e.g., ciguatera fish poisoning) (Sections 3.5, 5.12, Table SM3.3) (Bindoff et al., 2019); (Baker-Austin et al., 2013; Levy, 2015; Trtanj \r [...]"


id: 153f8b7d5cb63ab8c9d93c377d9b4cf0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 953
content:
"[...] et al., 2016; Ebi et al., 2017; Mantzouki et al., 2018; Nichols et al., 2018), and VBDs associated with arthropods (e.g., malaria, dengue, \r chikungunya, Zika virus, West Nile virus and Lyme disease), helminths (e.g., schistosomiasis) and zoonotic diseases associated with cattle \r and wildlife (e.g., leptospirosis) (low confidence to very high confidence, depending upon disease and region) (Sections 2.4.2.7, 3.5, 7.2, \r 7.3, 9.10.1.1.1, 13.7.1.2, 14.4.6, Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7; Table Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS.1) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r 2018; Ebi et al., 2021)."


id: e58662dcf4b304f50392a833bc3e8f50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37693
content:
"The attribution of observed changes in disease incidence, partly or fully, to climatic-impact drivers remains challenging because of the \r difficulty of accurately capturing the contributions of multiple, interacting and often nonlinear underlying responses of host, pathogen and \r vector, which can be influenced further by non-climate stressors and the long history of anthropogenic disturbance. Disease emergence \r in new areas requires independent drivers to coincide (i.e., increasing climate suitability for pathogen or vector survival and competence/\r capacity, and introduction of the pathogen, that is often via the mobility of human populations). Furthermore, the extent to which \r changes in ecosystem-mediated diseases impact human health is highly dependent on local socioeconomic status, sanitation, medical \r systems and practices (Section 2.4.2.5, Figure FAQ2.3.1) (Gething et al., 2010; Lindgren et al., 2012; Mordecai et al., 2013; Liu-Helmersson \r [...]"


id: 144bcf46924d66811277c2efd465d1ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 787
content:
"[...] et al., 2014; Bhatt et al., 2015; Morin et al., 2015; Ryan et al., 2015; Wesolowski et al., 2015; Stanaway et al., 2016; Yamana et al., 2016; \r Mordecai et al., 2017; Tesla et al., 2018; Ryan et al., 2019; Shah et al., 2019; Iwamura et al., 2020; Mordecai et al., 2020; Colon-Gonzalez \r et al., 2021; Ryan et al., 2021).Thus, risk reduction is more effective when links between climate change, ecosystem change, health and \r adaptation are considered concurrently (Sections 2.4, 3.5.3, 7.2, 7.3, 4.3.3, 6.2.2.3, Table SM2.1)."


id: cbd5bb502a32c66cf01b7e3ec64de483
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33185
content:
"Table Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS.1 |  Observed climate change impacts on cholera, dengue and malaria incidence. (1) Cholera: endemicity based on (Ali et al., 2015). \r Changes (2003-2018) in suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae estimated from model observations driven by sea-surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a (CHL) \r concentration (Escobar et al., 2015; Watts et al., 2019); vulnerabilities based on Sigudu et al. (2015) Agtini et al. (2005) and Sack et al. (2003). (2) Dengue: endemicity \r based on Guzman and Harris (2015). (3) Malaria: endemicity based on Phillips et al. (2017) and the WHO Global Malaria Programme. Impacts of climate change on \r diseases and their vectors are most evident at the margins of current distributions. However, it is difficult to implicate climate change in areas with extensive existing \r [...]"


id: 329e21f4639c4d892b0ea5f4b6ab8cc7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6166
content:
"[...] transmission and vector/pathogen abundance, and it is particularly difficult to distinguish from concurrent directional trends in disease control, changes in land use, water \r access, socioeconomic and public health conditions. As a result, while many studies indicate increasing climate suitability of some areas for cholera, and changes in disease \r incidence for dengue and malaria, the degree to which these changes can be attributed to climate change remains challenging. Uncertainty statements for malaria and \r dengue reflect the degree to which observed trends in disease incidence can be related to observed climate change in the given region. For cholera, confidence statements \r reflect the degree to which observed trends in disease or pathogen incidence and coastal area suitability for outbreaks can be linked to observed climate change drivers in \r [...]"


id: c27797fbc68e2d5bc9c00344960aec12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31496
content:
"[...] the given region. Acronyms: ONI (Oceanic Nino Index), Tmin (minimum temperature), SPI (Standardised Precipitation Index), LST (land surface temperature). Full references \r for this table can be found in Table SM2.6."


id: 7b75c3428f9b53e859c9062e55feb09d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18925
content:
"The poleward expansion of the distribution of Vibrio spp. has increased the risk of vibriosis outbreaks from multiple species in northern \r latitudes. Specifically, the coastal area suitable for Vibrio infections in the past 5 years has increased by 50.6% compared with a 1980s \r baseline at latitudes of 40degN-70degN; in the Baltic region, the highest-risk season has been extended by 6.5 weeks over the same periods \r (Watts et al., 2021). Already, studies have noted greater numbers of Vibrio-related human infections and, most notably, disease outbreaks \r linked to extreme weather events such as heat waves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe (Baker-Austin et al., 2013; Baker\u0002Austin et al., 2017; Baker-Austin et al., 2018) (high confidence). By the end of the 21st century, under RCP6.0, the number of months of \r risk of Vibrio illness is projected to increase in Chesapeake Bay by 10.4 +- 2.4%, with largest increases during May and September, which \r [...]"


id: aa5e189500e9a4a33cca44f20e319cfa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27201
content:
"[...] are the months of strong recreational and occupational use, compared to a 1985-2000 baseline (Jacobs et al., 2015; Davis et al., 2019a). \r In the Gulf of Alaska, the coastal area suitable for Vibrio spp. is projected to increase on average by 58 +- 17.2% in summer under RCP6.0 \r by the 2090s, compared to a 1971-2000 baseline (low to medium confidence) (Jacobs et al., 2015)."


id: a7d22eb64699c01546f90cfbb4b6e9e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26736
content:
"On land, increased global connectivity and mobility, unsustainable exploitation of wild areas and species and land conversion (agricultural \r expansion, intensification of farming, deforestation and infrastructure development), together with climate change-driven range shifts \r of species and human migration (Cross-Chapter Box  MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5), have modified the interfaces between people \r and natural systems (IPBES, 2018a). Climate-driven increase in temperature, the frequency and intensity of extreme events as well as \r changes in precipitation and relative humidity have provided opportunities for rearrangements of disease geography and seasonality, \r and emergence into new areas (high confidence) (Section 2.4.2.7). In particular, malaria has expanded into higher elevations in recent \r decades and, although attributing this to climate change remains challenging (Hay et  al., 2002; Pascual et  al., 2006; Alonso et  al., \r [...]"


id: a917004357fee1093db26e40aab48513
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26960
content:
"[...] 2011; Campbell et al., 2019c), evidence that the elevational distribution of malaria has tracked warmer temperatures is compelling for \r some regions (Siraj et al., 2014). Models based on both empirical relationships between temperature and the Anopheles mosquito and \r Plasmodium parasite traits that drive transmission (Mordecai et al., 2013; Yamana and Eltahir, 2013; Johnson et al., 2015) and existing \r mosquito distributions (Peterson, 2009) predict that warming will increase the risk of malaria in highland East Africa and Southern Africa, \r while decreasing the risk in some lowland areas of Africa, as temperatures exceed the thermal optimum and upper thermal limit for \r transmission (Peterson, 2009; Yamana and Eltahir, 2013; Ryan et al., 2015; Watts et al., 2021)."


id: af0cf07d30bae88b364b32f8a6ad2c7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28043
content:
"During the 21st century, public health adaptation measures (Figure Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS.2) have been put in place in attempts \r to control or eradicate a variety of infectious diseases by improving surveillance and early detection systems; constraining pathogen, \r vector, and/or reservoir host distributions and abundances; reducing the likelihood of transmission to humans; and improving treatment \r and vaccination programmes and strategies (robust evidence, high agreement) (Chinain et al., 2014; Adrian et al., 2016; Friedman et al., \r 2017; Konrad et  al., 2017; Semenza et  al., 2017; Borbor-Cordova et  al., 2018; Rocklov and Dubrow, 2020). In addition, the effective \r management and treatment of domestic and waste-water effluent, through better infrastructure and preservation of aquatic systems \r acting as natural water purifiers, have been key to securing the integrity of the surrounding water bodies, such as groundwater, reservoirs \r [...]"


id: 87a771247a9fa6269172d412d7dc9607
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21022
content:
"[...] and lakes, and agricultural watersheds as well as protecting public health (high confidence) (Okeyo et al., 2018; Guerrero-Latorre et al., \r 2020; Kitajima et al., 2020; Sunkari et al., 2021). The preservation and restoration of natural ecosystems, with their associated higher levels \r of biodiversity, have been reported as significant buffers against epidemics and large-scale pathogen transmission (medium confidence) \r (Johnson and Thieltges, 2010; Ostfeld and Keesing, 2017; Keesing and Ostfeld, 2021). Furthermore, the timely allocation of financial \r resources and sufficient political will in support of a 'One Health' scientific research approach, recognising the health of humans, animals \r and ecosystems as interconnected (Rubin et al., 2014; Whitmee et al., 2015; Zinsstag et al., 2018), holds potential for improving surveillance \r and prevention strategies that may help to reduce the risks of further spread and new emergence of pathogens and vectors (medium \r [...]"


id: 3a75b791f0b19d46e22553bdb1ba50de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7485
content:
"[...] confidence) (Destoumieux-Garzon et al., 2018; Hockings et al., 2020; Volpato et al., 2020; Hopkins et al., 2021; Portner et al., 2021)."


id: 88748b851812de35907d13a2c39d3d21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21166
content:
"Adaptation can take place on a range of scales, with specific projects \r nested within overarching national strategies. Small-scale projects \r can be adaptation-focused, but on the larger scale, adaptation is \r often integrated with wider objectives. Within an urban or peri-urban \r context, the benefits of natural and semi-natural areas for health \r and well-being help to justify support for EbA. Economic well-being \r is also an important factor in many cases whether, as in Durban, \r South Africa (Section  2.6.5.7), it provides new job opportunities \r or, as in the Andes (Section  2.6.5.4), it supports long-established \r agricultural practices. Action on the ground often depends on factors \r on a range of scales, for example, a local plan, a national strategy \r and international funding. In Durban, partnerships between local \r communities, local authorities and the academic community were \r essential, together with an international context. Nevertheless, there \r [...]"


id: 779814ab7ae8277f556a0db350ea340e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18244
content:
"[...] are examples of communities using traditional or local knowledge (LK) \r to adapt to changing circumstances, with little or no external input, \r (Section 2.6.5.4); Their scope for adaptation is, however, often limited \r by factors beyond their direct control."


id: 7999dc364a82ac5b534e0e4f7585a094
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18599
content:
"Specific interventions to protect species from climate change, such \r as the case of African penguins in South Africa (Section 2.6.5.5) and \r threatened plant species in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage \r Area (Section 2.6.5.8), are rare. However, in countries where nature \r reserves are actively managed or where ecosystem restoration projects \r are progressing, local practitioners may use their knowledge to adapt \r to weather conditions and their associated effects (e.g., fire and water \r shortages). This is good practice, but it may not be sufficient to address \r the likely future changes in climate (Duffield et  al., 2021). Training \r and resources to support conservation practitioners are becoming \r available. Examples include the Climate Change Adaptation Manual \r in England, UK (Section 2.6.5.2), and The Alliance for Freshwater Life \r (https://allianceforfreshwaterlife.org) which provides expertise for the \r [...]"


id: 4991c6a8f9cf3519606c412296191915
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10173
content:
"Threats to biodiversity from climate change in England include range \r retractions of cold-adapted species and the effects of more frequent \r extreme weather events such as drought. These threats are exacerbated \r by land use and management, for example, fragmenting habitats, \r draining land and straightening rivers. There are also risks to people, \r which are exacerbated by environmental factors, including flooding \r and over-heating in urban areas. The National Adaptation Programme \r provides a broad policy framework for England and includes a chapter \r on the natural environment. There are also adaptation plans produced \r by public bodies such as Natural England and the UK Environment \r Agency, with a wide range of responsibilities including flood defence. \r The principles of adaptation to climate change are well established in \r the UK conservation community and resources are available. Natural \r England has published a Climate Change Adaptation Manual jointly \r [...]"


id: e9322733fbde747f86aae515c1a66318
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38382
content:
"[...] with the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (a major conservation \r NGO) (Natural England and RSPB, 2020) and a spatial mapping tool for \r vulnerability to climate change (Taylor et al., 2014)."


id: 1dd2ee14d81c45c0e7d0763cb053510f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2434
content:
"Accelerated warming is shrinking tropical glaciers at rates unseen since \r the middle of the Little Ice Age (Rabatel et al., 2013; Zemp et al., 2015). \r Climate-driven upwards migration of species, associated with warming \r and glacier retreat, has modified species distribution and richness and \r community composition along the Andes altitudinal gradient (Seimon \r et al., 2017; Carilla et al., 2018; Zimmer et al., 2018; Moret et al., 2019). \r Climate-driven glacier retreat alters hydrological regimes, directly \r impacting Andean pastoralists (Lopez-i-Gelats et  al., 2016; Postigo, \r 2020; Thompson et al., 2021) and the provision of water to lowland \r regions (Vuille et al., 2018; Hock et al., 2019; Orlove et al., 2019; Rasul \r and Molden, 2019). The drying of wetlands has modified alpine plant \r communities, which are relevant for storing carbon, regulating water \r and providing food for local livestock; this has led to negative impacts \r [...]"


id: e1337c23d8ce4a359a8eaf388075cf17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36888
content:
"[...] on herders' livelihoods (Dangles et al., 2017; Polk et al., 2017; Postigo, \r 2020) and affecting the wild vicuna and the domesticated alpaca and \r llama. The wool from Vicuna (Vicugna vicugna) and alpaca (V. pacos) \r is an important source of income for indigenous communities and the \r llama (Lama glama) is their main source of meat. Vicuna are adjusting \r their feeding behaviour and spatial distribution as vegetation migrates \r upwards (Reider and Schmidt, 2020), causing them to roam outside \r protected areas and become vulnerable to illegal poaching."


id: e43158e49eb145dd59aab4cdf874ac5d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37450
content:
"Andean herders have responded to the drying of grasslands by \r increasing livestock mobility, accessing new grazing areas through \r kinship and leases, creating and expanding wetlands through building \r long irrigation canals (several kilometres in length), limiting the \r allocation of wetlands to new households and sometimes cultivating \r grasses (Postigo, 2013; Lopez-i-Gelats et al., 2015; Postigo, 2020). These \r adaptive responses to regional climate change are enabled by deeply \r embedded indigenous institutions that have traditionally governed \r Andean pastoralists, but they have become severely compromised \r by national socioeconomic pressures (Valdivia et  al., 2010; Postigo, \r 2019; Postigo, 2020). For instance, the quality of water and local \r pastoralists' access to it and control of it have declined, due to new \r mining concessions granted in the headwaters of Andean watersheds \r (Bebbington and Bury, 2009) and the diversion of water to areas of \r [...]"


id: 3554738bb9f2e16cea24f43d869c137d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6631
content:
"The African penguin's survival in the wild is dependent on the \r success of adaptation action. Increasing access to food resources is \r a management priority (Birdlife International, 2018). One approach \r is to reduce fishing pressure immediately around breeding colonies. \r An experiment excluding fishing around colonies since 2008 has \r demonstrated positive effects (Pichegru et al., 2010; Pichegru et al., \r 2012; Sherley et al., 2015; Sherley et al., 2018; Campbell et al., 2019b). \r A second approach is to establish breeding colonies closer to their prey. \r An ongoing translocation initiative aims to entice birds eastwards, to \r recolonise an extinct breeding colony and potentially establish a new \r one (Schwitzer et al., 2013; Sherley et al., 2014; Birdlife International, \r 2018). Penguin 'look-alikes' or decoys, constructed from rubber and \r concrete, have been placed at the site of the extinct colony, and, along \r [...]"


id: b93cdddab840d86c05e94bafa3d16e98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29795
content:
"Durban was an early pioneer of EbA in a city context, establishing a \r Municipal Climate Protection Programme (MCPP) in 2004 (Roberts et al., \r 2012). The city, situated in a global biodiversity hotspot (World Bank, \r 2016), has a rapidly growing population (approximately 3.5 million) and \r is highly fragmented (Roberts et al., 2013). High levels of development, \r particularly in peri-urban areas, have encroached into natural habitats \r (World Bank, 2016). Degradation of the natural resource base in this \r way has direct economic and financial costs, is threatening Durban's \r long-term sustainability and is exacerbated by climate change (World \r Bank, 2016; eThekwini Municipality, 2020). The impacts of climate \r change are anticipated to increase unless appropriate mitigation and \r adaptation interventions are prioritised (eThekwini Municipality, 2020). \r High rates of poverty, unemployment and health problems have pushed \r [...]"


id: b4a4e420172d1718503debf0fda50ba8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29034
content:
"[...] Durban to explore a climate change adaptation work stream within its \r MCPP (Roberts et al., 2013; Roberts et al., 2020b)."


id: 333bd225c6c1d86ed7e644f764d0c650
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6268
content:
"Lessons learnt from Durban's experience include the importance of \r meaningful partnerships, long-term financial commitments (Douwes \r et  al., 2015) and significant political and administrative will (Roberts \r et  al., 2012; Roberts et  al., 2020b). Securing these requires strong \r leadership (Douwes et al., 2015), including from local champions (Archer \r et al., 2014), even when EbA is considered cost-effective (Roberts et al., \r 2012). Projects for the restoration of natural habitats are seen as an ideal \r tool, as they combine mitigation outcomes with an increased adaptation \r capacity, not only reducing the vulnerability of ecosystems and \r communities (Douwes et al., 2016) but creating economic opportunities. \r These include direct job creation (Diederichs and Roberts, 2016; Douwes \r and Buthelezi, 2016) with various spin-offs such as better education for \r schoolchildren (Douwes et al., 2015). Indirect benefits, including better \r [...]"


id: 88dca019d5f21e9c1a0e7ff54d96cd59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21243
content:
"[...] water quality and reduced flooding, are generated as a result of improved \r ecosystem service delivery (Douwes and Buthelezi, 2016). In areas that \r are already developed, opportunities for green-roof infrastructure can \r yield reductions in roof storm-water runoff (by approx.. 60 ml/m2\r /min \r during a rainfall event), slow the release of water over time and reduce \r temperatures on roof surfaces (Roberts et al., 2012)."


id: 12a24cf71fedbef7942f79a27e899277
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 481
content:
"Most of the TWWHA is managed as a wilderness zone and is currently \r carried out in a manner that allows natural processes to predominate. \r The exclusion of fire from stands of fire-sensitive trees such as the \r pencil pine, Athrotaxis cupressoides, is part of this management \r strategy, possible in the past due to the moisture differential and lower \r flammability of these areas. However, in recent years, the threat posed \r by extensive and repeated wildfires and increasing awareness that fire \r risk is likely to increase (Fox-Hughes et al., 2014; Love et al., 2017; Love \r et al., 2019) have meant that more direct management intervention \r has been implemented. There has been a realisation that a 'hands \r off' approach to managing the threat will not be sufficient to protect \r the palaeo-endemics. Not only is fire-fighting difficult in this remote \r wilderness area, but limited resources mean that fire managers must \r [...]"


id: 97c1b9737a7e265fa6b13b89891aaa35
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23914
content:
"[...] prioritise where fires will be fought when many fires are threatening \r towns and lives across the state simultaneously."


id: 1e9dce9d803a323247cd4560b91469e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2589
content:
"Improving the resilience of SEA peatlands to fire and climate \r change through restoration is extremely difficult and presents \r many challenges. The Indonesian government has tasked the Badan \r Restorasi Gambut (Peatland Restoration Agency) to restore peatlands \r (Darusman et al., 2021; Giesen, 2021). Other local initiatives exist, such \r as fire management programmes and restoration projects (Puspitaloka \r et al., 2020). Since 2016, the government of Indonesia has re-wetted \r ~380,000 hectares of degraded peatlands, mainly by blocking canals \r and flooding, but less than 2000 hectares have been successfully \r restored to sustaining native plant species common to peat swamp \r forests (Giesen, 2021). Replanting native trees has had relatively little \r success (Lampela et al., 2017) because such trees have low tolerance \r to prolonged inundation and no fire adaptation strategies (Page et al., \r 2009; Roucoux et  al., 2013; Dohong et  al., 2018; Cole et  al., 2019; \r [...]"


id: 6683d7869eac63bf653c4b0741a9c37b
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"While the science of restoration has generated many successes, \r some habitats are very difficult to restore, making certain decisions \r effectively irreversible. For example, Acacia nilotica was introduced \r into Indonesia in the 1850s for gum arabic, with planting expanded \r for fire breaks in the 1960s. This tree became invasive and has already \r replaced >50% of the savanna habitat in the Baluran National Park, \r with complete replacement expected in the near future. This shift from \r savanna to acacia forest is causing large declines in native species, \r including the charismatic wild banteng, Bos javanicus, and the wild \r dog (dhole, Cuon alpinus) (Caesariantika et  al., 2011; Padmanaba \r et al., 2017; Zahra et al., 2020). Multiple approaches to controlling the \r spread of this acacia have been ineffective, highlighting the difficulty \r of reversing the decision to plant this tree (Zahra et al., 2020). Another \r [...]"


id: 3957e508503b1b56804fb167990726dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"[...] example is the difficulties in restoring the tropical peat forests of SEA \r (Section 2.6.5.10)."


id: c44881cd2c50e21658e282e9d94e7a26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"The barriers to successful management are complex, and include the \r disparity in time frames between ecological restoration and political/\r socioeconomic needs (Harrison et  al., 2020) and an over-focus on \r fire-fighting rather than fire prevention (Mishra et  al., 2021a). Early \r protection of peat forests has been highlighted as a more effective \r management strategy than restoration, not only on islands in SEA \r but also in areas like Papua New Guinea, which may be targeted for \r the expansion of estate crop plantations (Neuzil et al., 1997; Dennis, \r 1999; Anshari et  al., 2001; Anshari et  al., 2004; Hooijer et  al., 2006; \r Heil et al., 2007; Page et al., 2009; Page et al., 2011; Posa et al., 2011; \r Miettinen et  al., 2012; Wetlands International, 2012; Biagioni et  al., \r 2015; Miettinen et al., 2016; Rieley and Page, 2016; Adila et al., 2017; \r Cole et al., 2019; Vetrita and Cochrane, 2019; Harrison et al., 2020; Hoyt \r [...]"


id: a70b50fb46d6e620f0bed8cce5f5d935
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"There is also increasing evidence, reported in this chapter, that the loss \r and degradation of natural and semi-natural habitats exacerbates the \r impacts of climate change and climatic extreme events on biodiversity \r and ecosystem services (high confidence) (e.g., in (Ogden et al., 2013; \r Eigenbrod et al., 2015; Struebig et al., 2015; Stevens et al., 2016; Oliver \r et al., 2017; McAlpine et al., 2018; Taffarello et al., 2018; Lehikoinen \r et  al., 2019; Birk et  al., 2020; Chapman et  al., 2020; Agol et  al., \r 2021; Khaniya et al., 2021; Lara et al., 2021; Lehikoinen et al., 2021). \r Considering these two sets of evidence together, it is clear that climate \r change adaptation and ecosystem degradation both need to be \r addressed if either is to be tackled successfully (robust evidence, high \r agreement) as a number of recent publications concluded (Haddad \r et al., 2015; Hannah et al., 2020; Arneth et al., 2021; Portner et al., \r [...]"


id: b6650b9954f4b17fcacbdda3fd20086b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"[...] 2021). Taking this combined body of evidence, the assessment is that \r the protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural ecosystems \r are key adaptation measures (robust evidence, high agreement) \r (Section 2.5.4)."


id: bf85990b3e06ebdbb79a35d496d2835c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"CRD is the subject of Chapter 18. This section briefly assesses some of \r the fundamental issues for CRD relating to ecosystems. An overview of \r the importance of specific ecosystem services for CRD is presented in \r Box 18.7 in Chapter 18. A large body of evidence has demonstrated the \r extent to which human life, well-being and economies are dependent \r on healthy ecosystems and also the range of threats that these are \r faced with (high confidence) (IPBES, 2019; Dasgupta, 2021; Portner \r et al., 2021). An analysis of 64 studies found a strong positive synergy \r among eight critical regulating services of healthy ecosystems, \r including climate regulation, water provisioning, pest and disease \r control and adjacent-crop pollination (Lee and Lautenbach, 2016). \r The health of ecosystems is, in turn, reliant upon the maintenance \r of natural levels of species' richness and functional diversity (high \r confidence) (Lavorel et al., 2020) (see Section 2.5.4). A meta-analysis \r [...]"


id: 6009260a0f0bac3485dc1b2f6f5c7b5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"[...] of 74 studies documented that the mechanism for increased ecosystem \r stability is increased asynchrony among species, which itself is a \r product of greater species diversity (Xu et al., 2021b). Responding to \r these threats requires the protection and restoration of natural and \r semi-natural ecosystems, together with sustainable management of \r other areas."


id: 24672965207bb2887b822d3a2dc3733d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Large-scale protection and restoration of ecosystems can also make \r a significant contribution to climate change mitigation (Dinerstein \r et al., 2020; Roberts et al., 2020a; Soto-Navarro et al., 2020). Globally, \r there is a 38% overlap between areas of high carbon storage and high \r intact biodiversity (mainly in the peatland tropical forests of Asia, the \r western Amazon and the high Arctic), but only 12% of this is protected \r (high confidence) (see also sections 2.4.4.4.1, 2.4.4.4.3, 2.5.3.4) \r (Soto-Navarro et  al., 2020). Peatlands are particularly important \r carbon stores but are threatened by human disturbance, LULCC (Leifeld \r et al., 2019) and fire (sections 2.4.3.8, 2.5.2.8) (Turetsky et al., 2015). \r Restoration of peatlands is not only an efficient climate solution in \r terms of emissions of GHGs (Nugent et al., 2019), it may also increase \r ecosystem resilience (Glenk et al., 2021). Global restoration efforts are \r [...]"


id: e83dba5b3ad5d66391c921388b9a3626
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"[...] ongoing to target degraded temperate peatlands in the Americas and \r Europe (Chimner et al., 2017) in recognition of their importance for \r climate change mitigation (Paustian et al., 2016; Bossio et al., 2020; \r Humpenoder et al., 2020; Drever et al., 2021; Tanneberger et al., 2021). \r It has been estimated that the global GHG-saving potential of peatland \r restoration is similar to the most optimistic sequestration potential \r from all agricultural soils (Leifeld and Menichetti, 2018). However, \r the pressure on peatlands from human activity remains high in many \r parts of the world (Humpenoder et al., 2020; Tanneberger et al., 2021). \r Currently, the rapid destruction of tropical peatlands overshadows any \r current restoration efforts in temperate peatlands or any potential \r carbon gain from natural high-latitude peatlands (Roucoux et al., 2017; \r Wijedasa et al., 2017; Leifeld et al., 2019) (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.4.4.4.2, \r 2.4.4.4.4, 2.5.2.8, 2.5.3.4)."


id: a07e1721898983e6974dfac68edafc29
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25449
content:
"The CBD set the Aichi 2020 Target at 17% of each country to be protected \r for biodiversity. Analyses suggest that 30% or even 50% of land and \r sea needs to be protected or restored to confer adequate protection \r for species and ecosystem services (high confidence) (Dinerstein et al., \r 2019; Woodley et al., 2019; Brooks et al., 2020; Hannah et al., 2020; \r Zhao et al., 2020; Sala et al., 2021). Hannah et al. (2020) estimated \r that limiting warming to 2degC and protecting 30% of high-biodiversity \r regions (in Africa, Asia and Latin America) reduced the risk of species' \r extinctions by half (medium confidence). The placement of protected \r areas is as important as the total area (Pimm et al., 2018), and the \r quality of the protection (strictness and enforcement) is as important \r as the official land designation (Shah et al., 2021). Pimm et al. (2018) \r found that many small protected areas are successful because they are \r [...]"


id: c20546b4001ec5babc688ed337665704
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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vector_id: 31434
content:
"[...] in areas of very high biodiversity containing species with small range \r sizes, while many large regions identified as wild are often of low \r biodiversity value even though they may have a high mitigation value \r (e.g., the high Arctic tundra). A global meta-analysis of 89 restoration "


id: c70f7d249fde9d5e1c0ebb7e042b51f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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vector_id: 32337
content:
"In some cases, actions supported by international donors and \r presented as addressing climate change adaptation and mitigation in \r the natural environment can have damaging consequences for people \r and nature as well as failing to deliver adaptation and mitigation. One \r example of this was presented by Work et al. (2019), who reviewed \r three climate change mitigation and adaptation projects in Cambodia: \r an irrigation project, a protected-area forest management project \r and a reforestation project. In each case, they found evidence of the \r rights of local communities being violated, maladaptation and the \r destruction of biodiverse habitats. They concluded that the potential \r for maladaptation and adverse social and environmental impacts had \r been ignored by international donors and the national authorities, and \r that there was a need for much stricter accountability mechanisms. \r Moyo et al. (2021), using case studies from South Africa, documented \r [...]"


id: ac5a659ea4700d421741587e2b28a07f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"[...] greater success of ecosystem restoration projects when they embraced \r broader SDGs, particularly enhancement of people's livelihoods. Better \r assessment of the impacts of adaptation and mitigation measures \r on people and ecosystems, before they are implemented, will be \r increasingly necessary to avoid unintended and damaging consequences \r as their deployment is scaled up (Larsen, 2014; Enriquez-de-Salamanca \r et al., 2017; Pour et al., 2017). This applies to ostensibly nature-based \r approaches as well as more engineering-based ones."


id: a5229bd47a751ce9bf9b2073396ce920
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26281
content:
"At a local level, EbA can often provide a wide range of additional benefits \r for sustainable development in both rural and urban areas (Wilbanks, \r 2003; Nelson et  al., 2007; Cohen-Shacham et  al., 2016; Hobbie and \r Grimm, 2020; Martin et al., 2020). A number of the case studies above, \r such as in Durban and at Bhojtal Lake, illustrate this (section 2.6.5). A \r key element of CRD is ensuring that actions taken to mitigate climate \r change do not compromise adaptation, biodiversity and human needs. \r This depends on choosing appropriate actions for different locations \r (Box  2.2, Cross-Chapter Box  NATURAL in this chapter). A particularly \r notable case of this is the creation of woodland described in Box 2.2: \r re-afforestation of previously forested areas can provide multiple benefits \r (Lee et al., 2018; Lee et al., 2020) including those for climate change \r mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity. However, planting trees where \r [...]"


id: f5ef655b51e8b0f4218e79453da84350
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"[...] they would not naturally grow can create multiple problems including \r the loss of native biodiversity and the disruption of hydrology (Box 2.2). \r It is also the case that protection of existing natural forest ecosystems is \r the highest priority for reducing GHG emissions (Moomaw et al., 2019) \r and restoration may not always be practical (see Section  2.6.5.10). \r (Sections  2.4.3.6, 2.4.3.7, 2.4.4.3, 2.4.4.4, 2.5.2.6, 2.5.2.7, 2.5.3.3, \r Box 2.2, Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in this chapter)"


id: bd9e8c433312cfc602d0a1da15707c70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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vector_id: 30620
content:
"Authors: Camille Parmesan (France/USA/UK, Chapter 2), Gusti Anshari (Indonesia, Chapter 2, CCP7), Polly Buotte (USA, Chapter 4), \r Donovan Campbell (Jamaica, Chapter 15), Edwin Castellanos (Guatemala, Chapter 12), Annette Cowie (Australia, WGIII Chapter 12), \r Marta Rivera Ferre (Spain, Chapter 8), Patrick Gonzalez (USA, Chapter 2, CCP3), Elena Lopez Gunn (Spain, Chapter 4), Rebecca Harris \r (Australia, Chapter 2, CCP3), Jeff Hicke (USA, Chapter 14), Rachel Bezner Kerr (USA/Canada, Chapter 5), Rodel Lasco (Philippines, Chapter \r 5), Robert Lempert (USA, Chapter 1), Brendan Mackey (Australia, Chapter 11), Paulina Martinetto (Argentina, Chapter 3), Robert Matthews \r (UK, WGIII, Chapter 3), Timon McPhearson (USA, Chapter 6), Mike Morecroft (UK, Chapter 2, CCP5), Aditi Mukherji (India, Chapter 4), \r Gert-Jan Nabuurs (the Netherlands, WGIII Chapter 7), Henry Neufeldt (Denmark/Germany, Chapter 5), Roque Pedace (Argentina, WGIII \r [...]"


id: 9f3912491aa80a8157cddf90f445e5ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25235
content:
"[...] Chapter 3), Julio Postigo (USA/Peru, Chapter 12), Jeff Price (UK, Chapter 2, CCP1), Juan Pulhin (Philippines, Chapter 10), Joeri Rogelj \r (UK/Belgium, WGI Chapter 5), Daniela Schmidt (UK/Germany, Chapter 13), Dave Schoeman (Australia, Chapter 3), Pramod Kumar Singh \r (India, Chapter 18), Pete Smith (UK, WGIII Chapter 12), Nicola Stevens (South Africa, Chapter 2, CCP3), Stavana E. Strutz (USA, Chapter \r 2), Raman Sukumar (India, Chapter 1), Gautam Hirak Talukdar (India, Chapter 2, CCP1), Maria Cristina Tirado (USA/Spain, Chapter 7), \r Christopher Trisos (South Africa, Chapter 9)"


id: ef18e0b79a64ae78330640429e34f84b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39437
content:
"The protection/restoration of natural systems including reducing non-climate stressors, and the sustainable management of semi-natural \r areas emerge as necessary actions for adaptation to minimise extinctions of species, the reaching of tipping points that cause regime \r shifts in natural system and the loss of whole ecosystems and their associated benefits for humans (Scheffer et al., 2001; Folke et al., 2005; \r Luther et al., 2020) (Chapters 2 and 3 in this report; AR6 WGIII Chapter 7). Such measures are critical for the conservation of biodiversity \r and the provision of ecosystem goods and services in the face of projected climate change (Duarte et  al., 2020). Supporting local \r livelihoods and providing benefits to indigenous local communities and millions of private landowners, together with their active \r engagement in decision-making, are critical to ensuring support for NbS and their successful delivery (high confidence) (Chapter 5 in this \r [...]"


id: fbb2be2e04a1119e59fe8a3d512c6765
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41652
content:
"[...] report; Figure Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL.1)(Ceddia et al., 2015; Blackman et al., 2017; Nabuurs et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2019a; Smith \r et al., 2019b; Jones et al., 2020a; McElwee et al., 2020; Cao et al., 2021)."


id: 6762861ae9cc801e7b58159ea119fab3
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Natural forests and sustainably managed biodiverse forests play important roles in climate change mitigation and adaptation while \r providing many other ecosystem goods and services (very high confidence) (Bradshaw and Warkentin, 2015; Favero et al., 2020; Mackey \r et al., 2020). Contributions of natural forests to climate change mitigation are estimated at a median of 5-7 GtCO2 yr-1 (Roe et al., \r 2019). Forests influence the water cycle on a local, regional and global scale (Creed and van Noordwijk, 2018), reducing surface runoff, \r increasing infiltration to groundwater and improving water quality (Bruijnzeel, 2004; Zhou et al., 2015a; Ellison et al., 2017; Alvarez\u0002Garreton et al., 2019). Recent evidence shows that downwind precipitation is also influenced by evapotranspiration from forests (Keys \r et al., 2016; Ellison et al., 2017). Protecting existing natural forests and sustainably managing production forests in a holistic manner can \r [...]"


id: bfd6cdb8711b662fc812bee9981dcdd8
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content:
"[...] optimise the provision of the many functions forests fulfil for owners, conservation, mitigation and for society as a whole (Bauhus et al., \r 2009; Nabuurs et al., 2013)."


id: b0d77c6421fb2de79a6192da4c750155
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content:
"Climate change may mean that, in any given location, different species will be able to survive and become dominant and restoring the \r former composition of forests may not be possible (Sections 2.4, 2.5). Severe disturbances such as insect/pathogen outbreaks, wildfires \r and droughts, which are an increasing risk, can cause widespread tree mortality resulting in sequestered forest carbon being returned to \r the atmosphere (Anderegg et al., 2020; Senf and Seidl, 2021), suggesting that we need to adapt (Sections 2.4, 2.5, 13.3 14.4.1, Box 14.1). \r Adaptation measures, such as increasing the diversity of forest stands through ecological restoration rather than monoculture plantations \r can help to reduce these risks (high confidence). When plantations are established without effective landscape planning and meaningful \r engagement including free prior and informed consent, they can present risks to biodiversity and the rights, well-being and livelihoods of \r [...]"


id: e64325bb78344fdfb28309c16cfc39b1
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"[...] indigenous and local communities as well as being less climate-resilient than natural forests (very high confidence) (Section 5.6) (Corbera \r et al., 2017; Mori et al., 2021)."


id: db0d6b5a7aad4d2d64b5ea1e8964b65f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"Peatlands are naturally high-carbon ecosystems, which have built up over millennia. Draining, cutting and burning peat lead to oxidation \r and the release of CO2 (very high confidence). Re-wetting by blocking drainage and preventing cutting and burning can reverse this \r process on temperate peatlands (medium confidence) but takes many years (Bonn et al., 2016). Trees are naturally found on many tropical \r peatlands and restoration can involve removing non-native species like the oil palm and re-establishing natural forest. However, peatland \r tropical forest is difficult to fully restore, and native pond-fish, vital as a local food, often do not return. Protecting intact peat forests, \r rather than attempting to restore cleared forest, is by far the more effective pathway, in terms of cost, CO2 mitigation and the protection \r of food sources (Kreft and Jetz, 2007). Naturally treeless temperate and boreal peatlands have, in some cases, been drained to enable \r [...]"


id: cf04e6802ad92763ae57fa813c87e1f0
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content:
"[...] trees to be planted, which then leads to CO2 emissions, and restoration requires the removal of trees as well as re-blocking drainage (high \r confidence) (Sections 2.4.3.8, 2.5.2.8, 2.6.5.10)."


id: 27d20e66534ed616563523ede37ba219
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4197
content:
"Blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrass meadows; see Glossary Appendix II) often have high local rates of carbon \r accumulation and sequestration (Section 3.5.5.5) (Macreadie et al., 2019). However, quantification of their overall mitigation value is \r difficult due to the variable production of CH4 and N2O (Adams et al., 2012; Rosentreter et al., 2018; MacLean et al., 2019b), uncertainties \r regarding the provenance of the carbon accumulated (Macreadie et al., 2019) and the release of CO2 by biogenic carbonate formation \r in seagrass ecosystems (Saderne et al., 2019). Therefore, blue carbon strategies, referring to climate change mitigation and adaptation \r actions based on the conservation and restoration of blue carbon ecosystems, can be effective NbS, with evidence of the recovery of \r carbon stocks following restoration, although their global or regional carbon sequestration potential and net mitigation potential may be \r [...]"


id: 5069ed9a103d3e69d4b06082f982abb8
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] limited (medium confidence) (Sections 3.6.3.1.6, 13.4.3) (section 5.6.2.2.2 in (Canadell et al., 2021)) (Duarte et al., 2020)."


id: a33b247138872b8a0b979dcc8944ae6a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25930
content:
"They can also significantly attenuate wave energy, raise the seafloor (thereby counteracting the effects of SLR) and buffer storm surges \r and erosion from flooding (high confidence) (Sections 13.2.2, 13.10.2). Additionally, they provide a suite of cultural (e.g., tourism and the \r livelihoods and well-being of native and local communities), provision (e.g., mangrove wood, edible fish and shellfish) and regulation \r (e.g., nutrient cycling) services (high confidence) (Section 3.5.5.5). These services have motivated the implementation of management \r and conservation strategies of these ecosystems (Sections 3.6.3.1.6, 13.4.2). Blue carbon strategies are relatively new, with many of them \r experimental and small-scale; there is therefore only limited evidence of their long-term effectiveness. There is also limited information \r on the potential emission of other GHGs from restored blue carbon ecosystems, although reconnecting hydrological flow in mangroves \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] and restoring saltmarshes are effective interventions to reduce CH4 and CO2 (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Kroeger et al., 2017; \r Al-Haj and Fulweiler, 2020)."


id: 4b8ef7662341ebd016df82d4f522faa7
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
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content:
"health and well-being (high confidence) (Sections 2.2, 2.6, Chapter 6) (Kowarik, 2011; Frantzeskaki et al., 2019; Keeler et al., 2019). Not \r all green schemes are considered 'Nature-Based Solutions' if they do not benefit biodiversity, but carefully designed urban greening can \r be effective NbS. Careful planning also helps limit negative equity consequences such as benefitting wealthy neighbourhoods more than \r poor neighbourhoods (Geneletti et al., 2016; Pasimeni et al., 2019; Grafakos et al., 2020). Effective planning should also consider what is \r appropriate for the climate and conditions of each city. For example, some trees emit volatiles (e.g., isoprene) which, in the presence of \r certain atmospheric pollutants, can increase surface ozone which can, in turn, cause human respiratory problems (Kreft and Jetz, 2007). \r Wetland restoration close to human settlements needs to be paired with mosquito control to prevent negative impacts on human health \r [...]"


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"[...] and well-being (Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020), but it has been shown to provide better filtration and toxicity reduction with a lower \r environmental impact than other forms of waste-water treatment (Vymazal et al., 2021), including 'green roofs' and 'green walls' (Chapter \r 6 in this report) (Addo-Bankas et al., 2021)."


id: b3ec0c8f5ec67e2fccdd59c77340eb9a
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"Agro-forestry, cover crops and other practices that increase vegetation cover and enhance soil organic matter, carefully managed and \r varying by agro-ecosystem, mitigate climate change (high confidence) (Zomer et al., 2016; Aryal et al., 2019; Nadege et al., 2019). Global \r meta-analyses demonstrate agro-forestry as storing 20-33% more soil carbon than conventional agriculture (De Stefano and Jacobson, \r 2018; Shi et al., 2018) and reducing the spread of fire (Sections 5.6, 13.5.2, 7.4.3, Box 7.7). Minimising synthetic inputs such as nitrogen\u0002based fertilizers reduces emissions (Gerber et al., 2016). Cover crops can reduce N2O emissions and increase soil organic carbon (Abdalla \r et al., 2019). Conservation farming (no-till with residue retention and crop rotation) increases soil organic carbon, particularly in arid \r regions (Sun et al., 2020). Silvo-pastoral systems (pastures with trees) and other practices that increase vegetation cover and enhance soil \r [...]"


id: 184b455df9ed61ecfbf31166f77fb549
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"[...] organic matter increase sequestered carbon in vegetation and soils (Zomer et al., 2016; Aryal et al., 2019; Nadege et al., 2019; Ryan, 2019). \r Agro-ecologically improved management of land for crops and grazing has significant mitigation potential, estimated at 2.8-4.1 GtCO2-eq \r yr-1 (Smith et al., 2020) (Sections 5.10, 5.14, Box 5.10, Cross Working-Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5; WGIII 7.4.3, Box 7.7)."


id: d317d0ea0a4dcd013ab6057773423c20
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"AF enhances adaptation to climate change, including resilience to extreme events. Building organic matter improves the water-holding \r capacity of soils and buffers against drought; increased perenniality and high levels of ground cover reduce soil erosion during storms; \r agro-forestry shelters livestock and crops during heat waves; landscape complexity and agro-biodiversity increase resilience to disease and \r pests and stabilise livestock production; and restoration of oyster reefs provides thermal refugia and storm surge protection (Henry et al., \r 2018; Kremen and Merenlender, 2018; Kuyah et al., 2019; Gilby et al., 2020; Niether et al., 2020; Richard et al., 2020; Howie and Bishop, \r 2021; Snapp et al., 2021). Livestock mobility enables adjustment to increased climatic variability while maintaining the productivity of \r pastoral systems (Turner and Schlecht, 2019; Scoones, 2020). The adoption of agro-ecology principles and practices will therefore be highly \r [...]"


id: ea34ceba64ac8e078b8824e32ac16d86
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"[...] beneficial to maintaining healthy, productive food systems under climate change (high confidence) (Sections 5.4.4, 13.5.2, FAQ 12.4)."


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"AF practices such as hedgerows and poly-cultures maintain habitat and connectivity for biodiversity, thus aiding the ability of wild \r species to respond to climate change via range shifts, and support ecosystem functioning under climate stress compared to conventional \r agriculture (high confidence) (Section 5.4.4.4) (Buechley et al., 2015; Kremen and Merenlender, 2018; Albrecht et al., 2020). Increasing \r farm biodiversity benefits pollination, pest control, nutrient cycling, water regulation and soil fertility (Beillouin et al., 2019; Tamburini \r et al., 2020; Snapp et al., 2021). Biodiverse agro-forestry systems increase ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits compared to \r simple agro-forestry and conventional agriculture (high confidence), with up to 45% more biodiversity and 65% more ecosystem services \r compared to conventional production of timber and crops and profits from livestock in the Atlantic Forest in Brazil (Santos et al., 2019), \r [...]"


id: 55942c863339e03b2997881c54559d2c
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"[...] including benefits for birds and local tree species (Braga et al., 2019) and meaning there are fewer invasive exotic plants species (de \r Almeida Campos Cordeiro et al., 2018). AF includes the conservation of semi-natural woodlands, which can conserve bird predators of \r insect pests (Gonthier et al., 2019). The richness and abundance of insect species, including essential pollinators, are increased by organic \r farming (Sections 5.10, 12.6) (Kennedy et al., 2013; Haggar et al., 2015; Lichtenberg et al., 2017)."


id: bdfd9dfb3e3f983c49d9fa84f5556fa
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"System-level agro-ecological transitions require policy support for experimentation and exchange of knowledge by farmers, community\u0002based participatory methodologies and market and policy measures, for example, public procurement, local and regional market support, \r regulation or payments for environmental services (Mier y Teran Gimenez Cacho et al., 2018; HLPE, 2019; Snapp et al., 2021). Scientific \r consensus about the food security and environmental implications of agro-ecological transitions on a global scale is lacking. Yields of agro\u0002forestry and organic farming can be lower than high-input agricultural systems but, conversely, AF can boost productivity and profit, varying \r according to the time frame and the socioeconomic, political or ecosystem context (medium confidence) (Section 5.14) (Muller et al., 2017; \r Barbieri et al., 2019; Smith et al., 2019b; Smith et al., 2020). Such contrasting results and the limited investment in agro-ecological research \r [...]"


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"[...] to date mean it is paramount to assess the global and regional impacts of agro-ecological transitions on food production, ecosystems and \r economies in the context of climate change adaptation (Section 5.14) (DeLonge et al., 2016; Muller et al., 2017; Barbieri et al., 2019)."


id: 2c2cc20cc61cda2f3b9437e0ce185f77
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"sequestration over existing long-term accumulated carbon stocks; (2) being detrimental for biodiversity, undermining conservation \r adaptation; and (3) eroding other ecosystem services important for human health and well-being (high confidence). Conversely, well\u0002designed and implemented mitigation efforts have the potential to provide co-benefits in terms of climate change adaptation as well as \r providing multiple goods and services, including the conservation of biodiversity, clean and abundant water resources, flood mitigation, \r sustainable livelihoods, food and fibre security and human health and well-being (high confidence). A key aspect of such 'smart' climate \r mitigation is the implementation of inclusive and adaptive management pathways (Section 1.4.2). These entail acceptance of the uncertainty \r inherent in projections of future climate change, especially at the regional or local level, and using decision-making processes that keep \r [...]"


id: 91bfb0ae4f3dcd9b658d05393bc3aca0
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"[...] open as many options as possible for as long as possible, with periodic re-evaluation to aid in choosing pathways forward, even as systems \r are being impacted by ongoing climate change (Figure Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL.1; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17; Section 1.4.2)."


id: dd1b9bbdf38e6a9f09623d6fc04ad0a3
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"Another aspect of the benefits to people from ecosystems that needs \r to be taken into account in CRD is increasingly strong evidence of the \r benefits of natural environments for human health and well-being \r beyond the provision of basic necessities such as food and water \r (Bratman et  al., 2019; Marselle et  al., 2021). Meta-analyses of \r 162  studies involving 51,738 people documented that individuals \r with high levels of contact with nature throughout their lives felt \r significantly happier, healthier and more satisfied with their lives, \r and engaged in more pro-nature behaviours than those with little \r or no contact with nature (high confidence) (Capaldi et  al., 2014; \r Mackay and Schmitt, 2019; Pritchard et  al., 2020; Whitburn et  al., \r 2020). Meta-analyses of manipulative human trials across 65 studies \r documented a significant increase in positive feelings and attitudes \r and a decline in negative feelings after experimental treatments \r [...]"


id: 2d004b0324f935eb8ae6e99bb59c8685
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"[...] involving nature (medium confidence) (Bowler et al., 2010b; McMahan \r and Estes, 2015; Soga et al., 2017). In the context of CRD improving \r the extent to which humans see themselves as part of the natural \r world--known as human-nature connectedness (HNC)--increasing \r access to natural areas, particularly within urban areas, can provide \r additional health, cultural and recreation benefits of NbS as well as \r increasing public engagement and support (robust evidence, high \r agreement) (Wilbanks, 2003; Nelson et al., 2007; Bowler et al., 2010b; \r Capaldi et al., 2014; McMahan and Estes, 2015; Cohen-Shacham et al., \r 2016; Soga et al., 2017; Mackay and Schmitt, 2019; Work et al., 2019; \r Hobbie and Grimm, 2020; Pritchard et al., 2020; Whitburn et al., 2020)."


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"A key element of economic feasibility is the cost of adaptation options. \r Costs of adaptation vary greatly depending on the actions taken, the \r location, the methods used, the need for ongoing maintenance and \r whether land purchase is necessary. At its simplest, adaptation may \r be a matter of taking account of actual or potential climate change \r impacts in the course of conservation planning and have little or no \r additional cost. For example, if a species of conservation concern \r colonises or starts to use a new area as a result of climate change, \r like migrant waterfowl shifting the locations where they overwinter \r (Pavon-Jordan et al., 2020), protection or habitat management may be \r redirected there. At the other extreme, large-scale restoration can incur \r significant costs, for example, between 1993 and 2015, the EU-LIFE \r nature programme invested 167.6 million Euro in 80 projects, which \r aim to restore over 913 km2\r  of peatland habitats in Western European \r [...]"


id: d1531bc5da079558b791eb95ca61c331
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"[...] countries (Andersen et  al., 2017). This is equivalent to <2% of the \r remaining peatland area, much of which has been affected to at least \r some extent by human pressures, and restoring the total affected area \r will cost considerably more."


id: 6a1413d7406a7f50b919aa95ad11b933
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"The IPCC (2018a) defined feasibility as 'the degree to which climate \r goals and response options are considered possible and/or desirable' \r (IPCC, 2018b) and set out an approach to assessing the feasibility \r of pathways to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5degC. Singh \r et  al. (2020) developed this approach for adaptation, recognising \r six different dimensions of feasibility: economic, technological, \r institutional, socio-cultural, environmental/ecological and geophysical \r (Table 2.9). Feasibility is considered more fully in other chapters of this \r report, including Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18. Adaptation \r for biodiversity conservation and EbA encompasses a large range of \r approaches and techniques (Sections  2.6.2, 2.6.3) and will vary in \r different contexts globally, as illustrated by the range of case studies \r (Section 2.6.5). It is important to take into account specific regional \r and local circumstances as well as the type of adaptation action \r [...]"


id: 7f1195da918b2319811931616115ec2d
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"To hold global temperature rise to well below 2degC and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5degC as required by the Paris Agreement requires \r major changes in land use and management. There are many opportunities for NbS, which can provide climate change mitigation and \r adaptation in ways that protect and restore biodiversity and provide a wide range of benefits to people (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL \r in this chapter). There are also new technologies and approaches to develop the bioeconomy in ways which will provide many benefits \r (Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 5). Nevertheless, renewable energy is a large and essential element of climate \r change mitigation and there are adverse impacts on biodiversity associated with some types of renewable energy, including wind and \r solar technologies (Rehbein et al., 2020). However, one of the most serious conflicts emerging is that between land-based approaches \r [...]"


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"[...] to mitigation and the protection of biodiversity, particularly as a result of afforestation strategies and potentially large areas devoted \r to bioenergy, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). It is important to recognise the impacts of climate change \r mitigation at the same time as assessing the direct impacts of climate change, and ensure that adaptation and mitigation are joined up."


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"BECCS is an integral part of all widely accepted pathways to keeping global temperature rise to 1.5degC (IPCC, 2018b). This requires large \r areas of land, which can be in conflict with the need to produce food and protect biodiversity (Smith et al., 2018). One study examined \r the combined impacts of climate change and LULCC for bioenergy, and found that severe impacts on species were likely if bioenergy \r was a major component of strategies for climate change mitigation (Hof et al., 2018). A study on the potential impacts of bioenergy \r production and climate change on European birds found that one scenario for land conversion for bioenergy to meet a 2degC target would \r have less impact on species range loss than a global temperature increase of 4degC, but noted that if bioenergy were the only mitigation \r option it would 'very likely result in the negative effects of bioenergy outweighing the positive effects' (Meller et al., 2015). To avoid the \r [...]"


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"[...] worst impacts of BECCS, it will need to be carefully targeted according to context and local conditions, and other mitigation strategies \r prioritised so that its use can be minimised (IPCC, 2019a; Ohashi et al., 2019)."


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content:
"Reforestation of previously forested areas can bring multiple benefits, but planting trees in places where they do not naturally grow can \r have serious environmental impacts, including potentially exacerbating the effects of climate change. Savannas are amongst the \r ecosystems at risk from afforestation programmes. Savannas are grass-dominated, high-diversity ecosystems with endemic species \r adapted to high-light environments, herbivory and fire (Staver et al., 2011; Murphy et al., 2016). Interactions between climate change, \r elevated CO2 and the disruption of natural disturbance regimes have led to the widespread encroachment of woody plants (Stevens et al., \r 2016), causing a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure and function with loss of grass and reduced fire frequency (Archibald et al., \r 2009) and stream flow (Honda and Durigan, 2016) (Sections  2.4.3.5, 2.5.2.5, Box  2.1, 2.5.4, TAble 2.5, Figure  2.11). Afforestation \r [...]"


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"[...] exacerbates this degradation (Bremer and Farley, 2010; Veldman et al., 2015; Abreu et al., 2017). Global-scale analyses aimed at identifying \r degraded forest areas suitable for reforestation (Veldman et al., 2019) cannot reliably separate naturally grassy ecosystems with sparse \r tree cover from degraded forests, so local information is essential to ensure tree planting is targeted where it can benefit most and avoid \r harm. Figure Box 2.2.1 indicates where these issues are most likely to arise."


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"Reforestation options include the natural regeneration of the forest, assisted restoration, enrichment planting, \r native-tree plantations, commercial plantations and directed tree planting in agro-forestry systems and urban areas. \r Reforestation with native species usually contributes to a wide range of sustainability goals, including biodiversity \r recovery, improved water filtration and groundwater recharge. It can reduce the risks of soil erosion and floods. In \r cities, planting trees can support climate change adaptation by reducing the heat of the area, and promote a wide \r range of social benefits such as providing shade and benefitting outdoor recreation. Urban trees can also lower \r energy costs by reducing the demand for conventional sources of cooling like air-conditioning, especially during \r peak-demand periods. It is therefore important to recognise that there are a wide range of different planting and \r [...]"


id: 8cbf5022ac0f98a855b6919c0c004961
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"Not everywhere is suitable for tree planting. It is particularly problematic in native non-forested ecosystems. These \r natural ecosystems are not deforested and degraded but are instead naturally occurring non-forested ecosystems. \r These areas vary from open grasslands to densely wooded savannas and shrublands. Here, restoring the natural \r ecosystems instead of afforesting them will better contribute to increasing carbon storage and increasing the area's \r resilience to climate change and other environmental changes. It is important to remember that, just because a \r tree can grow somewhere, it does not mean that it should. These systems are very important in their own right, \r storing carbon in soils, supporting rich biodiversity and providing people with important ecosystem services such as \r grasslands for animal grazing. Planting trees in these areas destroys the ecosystem and threatens the biodiversity \r [...]"


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"[...] which is adapted to these environments. They can also impact on ecosystem services such as forage for livestock, on \r which many people rely."


id: 9c41236486ebcc817ab0c28fb903db53
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"A challenge for future projections that continues from previous IPCC \r reports is accurately characterising and quantifying the interactions \r of climate change vs. other, non-climate factors that cause ecological \r change, including LULCC (particularly deforestation, agricultural \r expansion, and urbanisation) and air and water pollution. Interactions \r can be particularly complex for invasive species, pests, pathogens \r and human infectious diseases. Modelling of risks at the species level \r requires comprehensive databases of the physiological, life-history, \r and reproduction of individual species, and modeling the impact of \r changes in species' compositions requires a mechanistic understanding \r of functional traits relevant to ecosystem integrity, functioning and \r resilience to climate change. Taxa that particularly lack this basis for \r model projections include fungi and bacteria. For numerous plant and \r animal species, research into genotypic and phenotypic diversity as a \r [...]"


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"Soil plays a vital role in ecosystem function, is the habitat of a large \r number of species and is a large carbon store which is currently a \r major source of GHG emissions; it is therefore a priority for climate \r change research (Hashimoto et  al., 2015). Major uncertainties \r remain in our understanding of soil functions. ESMs predict that soil \r respiration will increase with rising temperatures (Friedlingstein et al., \r 2014). However, there is evidence of acclimation post-increase (Carey \r et al., 2016) as the opposite response of decrease in respiration with \r warming (Li et al., 2013; Reynolds et al., 2015). Long-term, large-scale \r field observations combined with a better conceptual understanding \r of the factors governing soil process responses to climate change \r are needed. A better understanding of plant-water relations is also \r necessary, including the response of plant transpiration to increased \r CO2, climate warming and changes in soil moisture and groundwater \r [...]"


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"Detection and attribution efforts have increased since AR5, but there \r are some key impacts of high societal importance that would benefit \r from more detailed and sophisticated attribution studies. For example, \r while it is clear that diseases have altered considerably in both wild \r animals and humans in some areas (high confidence in detection), \r there are many regions that are under-studied, and few regions that \r provide robust assessments of the role of climate change, particularly \r with respect to human infectious diseases. While wildfire has been \r robustly linked to climate change in some regions, there are still a \r lack of attribution studies in some regions that have experienced large \r burns recently, and only one fire impact--the increase of the area \r burned by wildfire in western North America in the period 1984-2017 \r (Section 2.4.4.2.1) --has been formally attributed to anthropogenic \r climate change. Global changes in soil and freshwater ecosystem \r [...]"


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"[...] carbon over time remain uncertainties in global carbon stocks and \r changes (Section  2.4.4.4); due to the physical inability to conduct "


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"Contributing Authors: Ibidun Adelekan (Nigeria), Johann D. Bell (Australia), Julia Blanchard \r (Australia), Jessica Bolin (Australia), William W. L. Cheung (Canada), Andres Cisneros-Montemayor \r (Canada/Mexico), Sam Dupont (Sweden/Belgium), Stephanie Dutkiewicz (USA), Thomas Frolicher \r (Switzerland), Juan Diego Gaitan-Espitia (Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, China/\r Colombia), Jorge Garcia Molinos (Japan/Spain), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand/South Africa), Helen \r Gurney-Smith (Canada), Marjolijn Haasnoot (The Netherlands), Rebecca Harris (Australia), Stephanie \r Henson (UK), Manuel Hidalgo (Spain), Elisabeth Holland (Fiji), Robert Kopp (USA), Rebecca Kordas \r (UK/USA), Lester Kwiatkowski (France/UK), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand), Nadine Le Bris (France), \r Goneri Le Cozannet (France), Salvador E. Lluch-Cota (Mexico), Cheryl Logan (USA), Felix Mark \r (Germany), Yunus Mgaya (Tanzania), Coleen Moloney (South Africa), Aditi Mukherji (Nepal), Norma \r [...]"


id: 21837cd2d37d7d08dd36ad0d29f75fe4
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"[...] Patricia Munoz Sevilla (Mexico), Patrick Nunn (Australia), Dieter Piepenburg (Germany), Gregoire \r Randin (Fiji/France/Switzerland), Nussaibah B. Raja (Germany/Mauritius), Anusha Rajkaran (South \r Africa), Anthony J. Richardson (Australia), Stephanie Roe (Philippines/USA), Raquel Ruiz Diaz (Spain), \r Diana Salili (Vanuatu), Jean-Baptiste Sallee (France), Kylie Scales (Australia/UK), Daniela Schmidt (UK/\r Germany), Michelle Scobie (Trinidad and Tobago), Craig T. Simmons (Australia), Chandni Singh (India), \r Aimee Slangen (The Netherlands), Seree Supratid (Thailand), Olivier Torres (France), Andrew Yool (UK)"


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"Marine heatwaves lasting weeks to several months are exposing \r species and ecosystems to environmental conditions beyond \r their tolerance and acclimation limits (very high confidence).\r WGI AR6 concluded that marine heatwaves are more frequent (high \r confidence), more intense and longer (medium confidence) since the \r 1980s, and since at least 2006 very likely attributable to anthropogenic \r climate change. Open-ocean, coastal and shelf-sea ecosystems, \r including coral reefs, rocky shores, kelp forests, seagrasses, mangroves, \r the Arctic Ocean and semi-enclosed seas, have recently undergone \r mass mortalities from marine heatwaves (very high confidence). \r Marine heatwaves, including well-documented events along the \r west coast of North America (2013-2016) and east coast of Australia \r (2015-2016, 2016-2017 and 2020), drive abrupt shifts in community \r composition that may persist for  years (very high confidence), with \r [...]"


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vector_id: 12363
content:
"[...] associated biodiversity loss (very high confidence), collapse of regional \r fisheries and aquaculture (high confidence) and reduced capacity of \r habitat-forming species to protect shorelines (high confidence). {WGI \r AR6 Chapter  9, 3.2.2.1, 3.4.2.1-3.4.2.5, 3.4.2.7, 3.4.2.10, 3.4.2.3, \r 3.4.3.3.3, 3.5.3}"


id: f6c79f94e8de30425027891ea260b998
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40783
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ocean and coastal \r ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia \r (high confidence2\r ), and this has greatly impacted life in the \r ocean and along its coasts (very high confidence). Fundamental \r changes in the physical and chemical characteristics of the ocean \r acting individually and together are changing the timing of seasonal \r activities (very high confidence), distribution (very high confidence) and \r abundance (very high confidence) of oceanic and coastal organisms, \r from microbes to mammals and from individuals to ecosystems, \r in every region. Evidence of these changes is apparent from multi\u0002decadal observations, laboratory studies and mesocosms, as well as \r meta-analyses of published data. Geographic range shifts of marine \r species generally follow the pace and direction of climate warming \r (high confidence): surface warming since the 1950s has shifted \r [...]"


id: 8c67eb1102fc635380be3fd052cc523b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21881
content:
"[...] marine taxa and communities poleward at an average (mean +- very \r likely3\r  range) of 59.2  +-  15.5 km per decade (high confidence), \r with substantial variation in responses among taxa and regions. \r Seasonal events occur 4.3 +- 1.8 d to 7.5 +- 1.5 d earlier per decade \r among planktonic organisms (very high confidence) and on average \r 3 +- 2.1 d earlier per decade for fish (very high confidence). Warming, \r acidification and deoxygenation are altering ecological communities \r by increasing the spread of physiologically suboptimal conditions \r for many marine fish and invertebrates (medium confidence). These \r and other responses have subsequently driven habitat loss (very high \r confidence), population declines (high confidence), increased risks \r of species extirpations and extinctions (medium confidence) and \r rearrangement of marine food webs (medium to high confidence, \r depending on ecosystem). {3.2, 3.3, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.3.2, 3.4.2.1, \r [...]"


id: 88dde26c96329137d950bed3530c3188
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21246
content:
"At local to regional scales, climate change worsens the impacts on \r marine life of non-climate anthropogenic drivers, such as habitat \r degradation, marine pollution, overfishing and overharvesting, \r nutrient enrichment and introduction of non-indigenous species \r (very high confidence). Although impacts  of multiple climate and \r non-climate drivers can be beneficial or neutral to marine life, most \r are detrimental (high confidence). Warming exacerbates coastal \r eutrophication and associated hypoxia, causing 'dead zones'  (very \r high confidence), which drive severe impacts on coastal and shelf-sea \r ecosystems (very high confidence), including mass mortalities, habitat \r reduction and fisheries disruptions (medium confidence). Overfishing \r exacerbates effects of multiple climate-induced drivers on predators at \r the top of the marine food chain (medium confidence). Urbanisation \r and associated changes in freshwater and sediment dynamics increase \r [...]"


id: e209e479efe2873e181d33e1fdd67507
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37051
content:
"[...] the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems like sandy beaches, salt \r marshes and mangrove forests to sea level rise and changes in wave \r energy (very high confidence). Although these non-climate drivers \r confound attribution of impacts to climate change, adaptive, inclusive \r and evidence-based management reduces the cumulative pressure on \r ocean and coastal ecosystems, which will decrease their vulnerability \r to climate change (high confidence). {3.3, 3.3.3, 3.4.2.4-3.4.2.8, \r 3.4.3.4, 3.5.3, 3.6.2, Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}"


id: c71d2ba73bffade80aa314b17ca52005
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32351
content:
"Escalating impacts of climate change on marine life will further \r alter biomass of marine animals (medium confidence), the \r timing of seasonal ecological events (medium confidence) \r and the geographic ranges of coastal and ocean taxa (medium \r confidence), disrupting life cycles (medium confidence), \r food webs (medium confidence) and ecological connectivity \r throughout the water column (medium confidence). Multiple \r lines of evidence suggest that climate-change responses are very \r likely to amplify up marine food webs over large regions of the ocean. \r Modest projected declines in global phytoplankton biomass translate \r into larger declines of total animal biomass (by 2080-2099 relative \r to 1995-2014) ranging from (mean +- very likely range) -5.7 +- 4.1% \r to -15.5 +- 8.5% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively (medium \r confidence). Projected declines in upper-ocean nutrient concentrations, \r likely associated with increases in stratification, will reduce carbon \r [...]"


id: 36a2307ec5e1be3bdcc360454e0d2f8a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6845
content:
"[...] export flux to the mesopelagic and deep-sea ecosystems (medium \r confidence). This will lead to a decline in the biomass of abyssal meio\u0002and macrofauna (by 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014) by -9.8% and \r -13.0% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively (limited evidence). \r By 2100, 18.8 +- 19.0% to 38.9 +- 9.4% of the ocean will very likely\r undergo a change of more than 20 d (advances and delays) in the \r start of the phytoplankton growth period under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-\r 8.5, respectively (low confidence). This altered timing increases the risk \r of temporal mismatches between plankton blooms and fish spawning \r seasons (medium to high confidence) and increases the risk of fish\u0002recruitment failure for species with restricted spawning locations, \r especially in mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (low \r confidence). Projected range shifts among marine species (medium \r confidence) suggest extirpations and strongly decreasing tropical \r [...]"


id: f0c9b4abf895d18180001cacbd6465b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39727
content:
"[...] biodiversity. At higher latitudes, range expansions will drive increased \r homogenisation of biodiversity. The projected loss of biodiversity \r ultimately threatens marine ecosystem resilience (medium to high \r confidence), with subsequent effects on service provisioning (medium \r to high confidence). {3.2.2.3, 3.4.2.10, 3.4.3.1-3.4.3.5, 3.5, WGI AR6 \r Section 2.3.4.2.3}"


id: 26926450685f0c6b4de4500b79af3ae4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3951
content:
"Ocean conditions are projected to continue diverging from a \r pre-industrial state (virtually certain), with the magnitude \r of  warming, acidification, deoxygenation, sea level rise and \r other climate-induced drivers depending on the emission \r scenario (very high confidence), and to increase risk of regional \r extirpations and global extinctions of marine species (medium \r confidence). Marine species richness near the equator and in the Arctic \r is projected to continue declining, even with less than 2degC warming \r by the end of the century (medium confidence). In the deep ocean, \r all global warming levels will cause faster movements of temperature \r niches by 2100 than those that have driven extensive reorganisation \r of marine biodiversity at the ocean surface over the past 50  years \r (medium confidence). At warming levels beyond 2degC by 2100, risks of \r extirpation, extinction and ecosystem collapse escalate rapidly (high \r [...]"


id: 5a66d7d676b973d5e9aabc097d228c12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13160
content:
"[...] confidence). Paleorecords indicate that at extreme global warming \r levels (>5.2degC), mass extinction of marine species may occur (medium \r confidence). {Box 3.2, 3.2.2.1, 3.4.2.5, 3.4.2.10, 3.4.3.3, Cross-Chapter \r Box PALEO in Chapter 1}"


id: db471c8e1c929126c3cc96a53657308c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35850
content:
"Risks from sea level rise for coastal ecosystems and people \r are very likely to increase tenfold well before 2100 without \r adaptation and mitigation action as agreed by Parties to the Paris \r Agreement (very high confidence). Sea level rise under emission \r scenarios that do not limit warming to 1.5degC will increase the risk of \r coastal erosion and submergence of coastal land (high confidence), \r loss of coastal habitat and ecosystems (high confidence) and worsen \r salinisation of groundwater (high confidence), compromising coastal \r ecosystems and livelihoods (high confidence). Under SSP1-2.6, \r most coral reefs (very high confidence), mangroves (likely, medium \r confidence) and salt marshes (likely, medium confidence) will be \r unable to keep up with sea level rise by 2050, with ecological impacts \r escalating rapidly beyond 2050, especially for scenarios coupling high \r emissions with aggressive coastal development (very high confidence). \r [...]"


id: 5b00f348273c5d1220cfe9e2bf40bb35
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13263
content:
"[...] Resultant decreases in natural shoreline protection will place \r increasing numbers of people at risk (very high confidence). The ability \r to adapt to current coastal impacts, cope with future coastal risks and \r prevent further acceleration of sea level rise beyond 2050 depends on \r immediate implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions (very \r high confidence).  {3.4.2.1, 3.4.2.4, 3.4.2.5, 3.4.2.6, 3.5.5.3, Cross\u0002Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}"


id: 228f79cb2414b59f38a95028ec82a6b1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3298
content:
"Climate impacts on ocean and coastal ecosystems will be \r exacerbated by increases in intensity, reoccurrence and \r duration of marine heatwaves (high confidence), in some cases, \r leading to species extirpation, habitat collapse or surpassing \r ecological tipping points (very high confidence). Some habitat\u0002forming coastal ecosystems including many coral reefs, kelp forests and \r seagrass meadows, will undergo irreversible phase shifts due to marine \r heatwaves with global warming levels >1.5degC and are at high risk this \r century even in <1.5degC scenarios that include periods of temperature \r overshoot beyond 1.5degC (high confidence). Under SSP1-2.6, coral \r reefs are at risk of widespread decline, loss of structural integrity and \r transitioning to net erosion by mid-century due to increasing intensity \r and frequency of marine heatwaves (very high confidence). Due to \r these impacts, the rate of sea level rise is very likely to exceed that \r [...]"


id: 14501f24ee974fac837b93f83f963d9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 791
content:
"[...] of reef growth by 2050, absent adaptation. Other coastal ecosystems, \r including kelp forests, mangroves and seagrasses, are vulnerable to \r phase shifts towards alternate states as marine heatwaves intensify \r (high confidence). Loss of kelp forests are expected to be greatest \r at the low-latitude warm edge of species' ranges (high confidence). \r {3.4.2.1, 3.4.2.3, 3.4.2.5, 3.4.4}"


id: ebb5b28411db6492c7857e1343d2722e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38831
content:
"Available adaptation options are unable to offset climate\u0002change impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they \r provide (high confidence). Adaptation solutions implemented at \r appropriate scales, when combined with ambitious and urgent \r mitigation measures, can meaningfully reduce impacts (high \r confidence). Increasing evidence from implemented adaptations \r indicates that multi-level governance, early-warning systems for \r climate-associated marine hazards, seasonal and dynamic forecasts, \r habitat restoration, ecosystem-based management, climate-adaptive \r management and sustainable harvesting tend to be both feasible \r and effective (high confidence). Marine protected areas (MPAs), as \r currently implemented, do not confer resilience against warming and \r heatwaves (medium confidence) and are not expected to provide \r substantial protection against climate impacts past 2050 (high \r confidence). However, MPAs can contribute substantially to adaptation \r [...]"


id: 223ef9760d7d440a812984577e25e7db
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3248
content:
"[...] and mitigation if they are designed to address climate change, \r strategically implemented and well governed (high confidence). \r Habitat restoration limits climate-change-related loss of ecosystem \r services, including biodiversity, coastal protection, recreational use and \r tourism (medium confidence), provides mitigation benefits on local to \r regional scales (e.g., via carbon-storing 'blue carbon' ecosystems) (high \r confidence) and may safeguard fish-stock production in a warmer \r climate (limited evidence). Ambitious and swift global mitigation \r offers more adaptation options and pathways to sustain ecosystems \r and their services (high confidence). {3.4.2, 3.4.3.3, 3.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, \r 3.5.5.4, 3.5.5.5, 3.6.2.1, 3.6.2.2, 3.6.2.3, 3.6.3.1, 3.6.3.2, 3.6.3.3, 3.6.5, \r Figure 3.24, Figure 3.25}"


id: 4a08faa3dcf50d559af07dc4980f47b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10267
content:
"Climate change will alter many ecosystem services provided \r by marine systems (high confidence), but impacts to human \r communities will depend on people's overall vulnerability, \r which is strongly influenced by local context and development \r pathways (very high confidence). Catch composition and diversity \r of regional fisheries will change (high confidence), and fishers who are \r able to move, diversify and leverage technology to sustain harvests \r decrease their own vulnerability (medium confidence). Management \r that eliminates overfishing facilitates successful future adaptation of \r fisheries to climate change (very high confidence). Marine-dependent \r communities, including Indigenous Peoples and local peoples, will be \r at increased risk of losing cultural heritage and traditional seafood\u0002sourced nutrition (medium confidence). Without adaptation, seafood\u0002dependent people face increased risk of exposure to toxins, pathogens \r [...]"


id: b97c1cb82e60cc09c44748d0c5e7211c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29845
content:
"[...] and contaminants (high confidence), and coastal communities \r face increasing risk from salinisation of groundwater and soil (high \r confidence). Early-warning systems and public education about \r environmental change, developed and implemented within the local \r and cultural context, can decrease those risks (high confidence). \r Coastal development and management informed by sea level rise \r projections will reduce the number of people and amount of property \r at risk (high confidence), but historical coastal development and \r policies impede change (high confidence). Current financial flows are \r globally uneven and overall insufficient to meet the projected costs \r of climate impacts on coastal and marine social-ecological systems \r (very high confidence). Inclusive governance that (a) accommodates \r geographically shifting marine life, (b)  financially supports needed \r human transformations, (c)  provides effective public education and \r [...]"


id: 8f42dc10a0723dde51e7674da11b6ce5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22411
content:
"[...] (d) incorporates scientific evidence, Indigenous knowledge and local \r knowledge to manage resources sustainably shows greatest promise \r for decreasing human vulnerability to all of these projected changes in \r ocean and coastal ecosystem services (very high confidence). {3.5.3, \r 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 3.6.3, Box 3.4, Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2, \r Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}"


id: 4c4d2cfaf6524e7ff7f01428ab75033e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:52
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10687
content:
"Nature-based solutions for adaptation of ocean and coastal \r ecosystems can achieve multiple benefits when well designed \r and implemented (high confidence), but their effectiveness \r declines without ambitious and urgent mitigation (high \r confidence). Nature-based solutions, such as ecosystem-based \r management, climate-smart conservation approaches (i.e., climate\u0002adaptive fisheries and conservation) and coastal habitat restoration, \r can be cost-effective and generate social, economic and cultural co\u0002benefits while contributing to the conservation of marine biodiversity \r and reducing cumulative anthropogenic drivers (high confidence). \r The effectiveness of nature-based solutions declines with warming; \r conservation and restoration alone will be insufficient to protect coral \r reefs beyond 2030 (high confidence) and to protect mangroves beyond \r the 2040s (high confidence). The multidimensionality of climate-change \r [...]"


