# document

id: 7b86c7e591cc8f09cb61e1f17d095af3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18940
content:
"The IWES model incorporates detailed modelling of electricity, gas, \r\ntransport, hydrogen, and heat systems and captures the complex \r\ninteractions across those energy vectors. The IWES model also considers \r\nthe short-term operation and long-term investment timescales (from \r\nseconds to years) simultaneously, while coordinating operation \r\nof and investment in local district and national/international level \r\nenergy infrastructures (Strbac et al. 2018)."


id: bc3e2ff9c16c0a56aa25f2cc793ccdca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30363
content:
"Hybrid models are a combination of macro-economic models (i.e., top\u0002down) with at least one energy sector model (i.e., bottom-up) that \r\ncould benefit from the advantages of both mentioned approaches. \r\nIn this regard, linking these two models can be carried out either \r\nmanually through transferring the data from one model to the other \r\n(soft linking), or automatically (hard linking) (Prina et al. 2020). In \r\nthis section, some of these models are presented including World \r\nEnergy Model (WEM) (IEA 2020a) and the National Energy Modelling \r\nSystem (NEMS) (Fattahi et al. 2020)."


id: b2576bfbee879d9283a2637dcab113f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28613
content:
"The UK TIMES Model ('The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System') \r\nuses linear programming to produce a  least-cost energy \r\nsystem, optimised according to a number of user constraints, over \r\nmedium- to long-term time horizons. It portrays the UK energy \r\nsystem, from fuel extraction and trading to fuel processing and \r\ntransport, electricity generation and all final energy demands \r\n(Taylor et al. 2014; Daly and Fais 2014). The model generates \r\nscenarios for the evolution of the energy system based on different \r\nassumptions around the evolution of demand and future technology \r\ncosts, measuring energy system costs and all greenhouse gases \r\n(GHGs) associated with the scenario. UKTM is built using the \r\nTIMES model generator: as a partial equilibrium energy system and \r\ntechnologically detailed model, it is well suited to investigate the \r\neconomic, social, and technological trade-offs between long-term \r\ndivergent energy scenarios."


id: ef917ef8f449bf269ca918ec34b69211
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39530
content:
"The WEM is a  simulation model covering energy supply, energy \r\ntransformation and energy demand. The majority of the end-use sectors \r\nuse stock models to characterise the energy infrastructure. In addition, \r\nenergy-related CO2 emissions and investments related to energy \r\ndevelopments are specified. The model is focused on determining the \r\nshare of alternative technologies in satisfying energy service demand. \r\nThis includes investment costs, operating and maintenance costs, fuel \r\ncosts and in some cases costs for emitting CO2 (IEA 2020a)."


id: 374605ba40d30b38169c563f754d9ab3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6940
content:
"Calliope is an open source Python-based toolchain for developing \r\nenergy system models, focusing on flexibility, and high temporal and \r\nspatial granularities. This model has the ability to execute many runs \r\non the same base model, with clear separation of model (data) and \r\nframework (code) (Pfenninger and Pickering 2018)."


id: ff4e061f08e4c59e2ea3a8952244ee89
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42323
content:
"The NEMS is an energy-economy modelling system applied for \r\nthe USA through 2030. NEMS projects consider the production, \r\nimport, conversion, consumption, and prices of energy, subject \r\nto assumptions on macroeconomic and financial factors, world \r\nenergy markets, resource availability and costs, behavioural and \r\ntechnological choice criteria, cost and performance characteristics \r\nof energy technologies, and demographics. NEMS was designed and \r\nimplemented by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the \r\nUS Department of Energy. NEMS is used by EIA to project the energy, \r\neconomic, environmental, and security impacts on the United States \r\nconsidering alternative energy policies and assumptions related to \r\nenergy markets (Fattahi et al. 2020)."


id: 5a7778528fbab07658b9773b7a67bd46
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13172
content:
"To study the impact of low-carbon energy systems on the economy, \r\nnumerous integrated assessment modelling tools (top-down models) \r\nare applied, such as: General Equilibrium Model for Economy-Energy\u0002Environment (GEM-E3) (Capros et al. 2013), ENV-Linkages (Burniaux \r\nand Chateau 2010), and Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis \r\n(EPPA) (Chen et al. 2016)."


id: f55972f2834da707e7f4dd9ef0442b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"GEM-E3 is a  recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium \r\nmodel that covers the interactions between the economy, \r\nthe  energy system and the environment. It is specially designed \r\nto evaluate energy, climate, and environmental policies. GEM-E3 can \r\nevaluate consistently the distributional and macro-economic effects \r\nof policies for the various economic sectors and agents across the \r\ncountries/regions (Capros et al. 2013)."


id: 6f7104e088f131d2a82acad7268a2f3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"GHG emissions and mitigation potentials in the building sector \r\nare modelled using either a  top-down, a  bottom-up or a  hybrid \r\napproach (Figure 1)."


id: 1fcaaea4fba67baac77805a6df834ca2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"The top-down models are used for assessing economy-wide \r\nresponses of building policies. These models are either economic or \r\ntechnological and have low granularity."


id: 6311bfa9f73d715ef47a58fc81c7a8bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"The bottom-up models are data intensive and based on microscopic \r\ndata of individual end uses and the characteristics of each component \r\nof buildings. Bottom-up models can be either physics-based, also \r\nknown as engineering models; data-driven, also known as statistical \r\nmodels; or a  combination of both, also known as hybrid bottom\u0002up models. Bottom-up models are useful to assess the technico\u0002economic potentials of the overall building stock by extrapolating \r\nthe estimated energy consumption of a representative set of invidual \r\nbuildings (Duerinck et al. 2008; Hall and Buckley 2016; Bourdeau \r\net al. 2019)."


id: 3263f64970f2d7cfeb5a7c32832f2b08
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"former are included in top-down, hybrid and bottom-up models while \r\nthe latter is usually included in bottom-up and agent-based models \r\n(Niamir et al. 2020; IEA 2021). In non-residential buildings, value \r\nadded is considered among the drivers."


id: f27b49c88550fce66f7db9011b3c6c63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Hybrid models used for buildings can be either optimisation or \r\nsimulation models (Duerinck et al. 2008; Hall and Buckley 2016; \r\nBourdeau et al. 2019) (Figure 1). The latter can also be agent-based \r\nmodels and could be combined with building performance models \r\nto allow for an assessment of occupants' behaviour (Papadopoulos \r\nand Azar 2016; Sachs et al. 2019a; Niamir et al. 2020). Hybrid models \r\nare used for exploring the impacts of resource constraints and \r\nfor  investigating the role of specific technological choices as well \r\nas for analysing the impact of specific building policies."


id: dc5887754a45975e6f29d736a75a7cfb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
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content:
"The use of geographical information systems (GIS) layers (Reinhart \r\nand Cerezo Davila 2016) combined with machine learning techniques \r\n(Bourdeau et al. 2019) allows the creation of detailed datasets of \r\nbuilding characteristics while optimising the computing time, thus, \r\nleading to a better representation of energy demand of buildings and \r\na more accurate assessment of GHG mitigation potential."


id: 8a9b3a634dee8f6b47ef9071278ea23b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"The assessment conducted in Chapter  9 was based on the SER \r\n(Sufficiency, Efficiency, Renewable), framework with sufficiency \r\nbeing all the measures and daily practices which avoid, in the first \r\nplace, the demand for energy, materials, water, land and other \r\nnatural resources over the life cycle of buildings and appliances/\r\nequipment, while providing decent living standards for all within the \r\nplanetary boundaries. By contrast to efficiency, sufficiency measures \r\ndo not consume energy in the use phase. Efficiency improvement \r\nof the building envelope and appliances/equipment are the main \r\nmitigation options considered in the existing models and scenarios. \r\nThey are, usually, combined with market-based and information \r\ninstruments and to some extent with behaviour change. As of today, "


id: 6e71ab5c8d518c910a5404dce8b1097
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"Comprehensive models represent energy demand per energy carrier \r\nand end use for both residential and non-residential buildings, for \r\ndifferent countries or sets of countries, further disaggregated across \r\nurban/rural and income groups. Drivers of energy demand considered \r\ninclude population, the floor area per capita, appliances ownership \r\nand to some extent occupants' behaviour in residential buildings. The "


id: 8f52e6a17221107fe26668c36cb1327
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"current policies scenario, to increase by 56% by 2030, followed by \r\na decrease of 75% by 2050. Such variations in emissions over two \r\ndecades in the developing world raise questions about the policy \r\nrelevance of these scenarios. In developed countries, emissions are \r\nprojected to go down in all regions across all scenarios, except in \r\nSSP2 scenario in Asia-Pacific, where emissions are projected to \r\nincrease by 18% by 2030 followed by a decrease of 25% by 2050, \r\ncompared to current policies scenario. It is worth noting that, across \r\nall scenarios, Eastern Asia is the region with the lowest estimated \r\nmitigation potential compared to the current policies (Figure 2-b)."


id: 6e46f7d790dcd4b7155d65b2bf99a34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Grubler et al. (2018), Pauliuk et al. (2021b), Kuhnhenn et al. (2020), \r\nMillward-Hopkins et al. (2020), Kikstra et al. (2021), and van Vuuren \r\net al. (2021) are the only six global models/scenarios to include \r\nsufficiency measures, out of which detailed data were available only \r\nfor two scenarios (Pauliuk et al. 2021b; van Vuuren et al. 2021)."


id: ca15edb82318686ff42db1d5768d3b1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"In total, 931 scenarios were submitted to the AR6 scenario database, \r\nout of which only two scenarios provided detailed data allowing for \r\nan assessment of emissions reductions based on the SER framework \r\nconsidered in the building chapter. An additional 78 bottom-up \r\nmodels/scenarios were gathered (Table 1). Mitigation potentials from \r\nthese scenarios are assessed using either a decomposition analysis \r\n(Section 9.3) or an aggregation of bottom-up potential estimates for \r\ndifferent countries into regional and then global figures (Section 9.6)."


id: e1dc438b7b2dc5339150f30f85b4ae45
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"The link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is not always \r\nexplicit in buildings models/scenarios. However, some models include \r\nrequirements to ensure access to decent living standards for all \r\n(Grubler et al. 2018); Millward-Hopkins et al. 2020; Kikstra et al. \r\n2021) or to specifically meet the 2030 SDG 7 goal (IEA 2020a, 2021)."


id: a844acb9d73a1cf5ac72272a56a83cdc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Scenarios considered in the illustrative mitigation pathways included \r\nin Chapter 3 were assessed, compared to current policy scenarios. \r\nThe assessment was possible for only the combined direct CO2\r\nemissions for both residential and non-residential buildings due to \r\nlack of data on other gases as well as on indirect and embodied \r\nemissions. The assessment shows mitigation potentials, compared to \r\ncurrent policies scenarios, at a global level ranging from 9% to 13% \r\nby 2030 and from 58% to 89% in 2050 (Figure 2-b)."


id: 159e04ee1e8812beefadfe824ca3aac8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"The AR6 scenario database received 101 models with a  building \r\ncomponent, out of which 96 were IAM models and five \r\nbuilding  specific models. This is equivalent to 931 scenarios. After \r\nan initial screening, quality control and further vetting to assess \r\nif they sufficiently represented historical trends and climate goals, \r\n43  models (42 IAMs and 1 building-specific model) were kept for \r\nthe assessment, thus reducing the number of scenarios to assess \r\nto 554. The unvetted scenarios are still available in the database. "


id: 5827826caac78a7695ca9900a05d657a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"There are great discrepancies in the projected potentials by the IAMs \r\nacross regions and scenarios. In the deep electrification and high \r\nrenewable scenario, emissions in Africa are projected to increase by \r\n88% by 2030, followed by a decrease of 97% by 2050, compared to \r\ncurrent policies scenario. Similarly, in the sustainable development \r\nscenario, emissions in developing Asia are projected, compared to "


id: 4755c4ded647d605b8a73faf424d0b0b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"*The percentages correspond to the increase or decrease in relation to the same year with the Current Policies Scenario as a baseline. "


id: 9af3d5e5d8cd21ad0427d0b263d91317
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Figure 2 | GHG emissions reductions in the building sector (direct emissions) in scenarios considered as illustrative mitigation pathways in Chapter 3."


id: 9df13e2f00587ea5b82a83b4a67b2431
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"After a  final screening based on the SER (Sufficiency, Efficiency, \r\nRenewable) framework, only two IAMs were kept. Given the top\u0002down nature of IAMs and their weaknesses in assessing mitigation \r\nmeasures, especially sufficiency measures, 78 bottom-up models with \r\ntechnological representation have been included in the assessment \r\n(Table  1). These additional bottom-up models were not submitted \r\nto the AR6 scenario database. However, scenario owners supplied \r\nChapter 9 with the underlying assumptions and data."


id: 666c0079b3bf4ad0ba7cb63d23446b94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"GHG emissions from transport are largely a  function of travel \r\ndemand, transport mode, and transport technology and fuel. \r\nThe purpose of transportation system models is to describe how \r\nfuture demand for transport can be fulfilled through different \r\nmodes and technologies under different climate change mitigation \r\ntargets or policies. Within a given transport mode, technologies differ \r\nby efficiency and fuel use."


id: 495de70827f1c440eca504ca11574521
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"A key distinguishing feature between different model types is how \r\nthey control the above components. Our review of the transport \r\nenergy system models can be broadly divided into three main \r\ncategories: (i) optimisation models, (ii) simulation models, and \r\n(iii) accounting and exploratory models."


id: 9163d24ef9f6d5032cd1af7da08a1280
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"Common components of transportation energy systems models mirror \r\nthese main drivers of GHG emissions. Most models will also quantify "


id: e8554088a9eb00e3299fbdc519895af2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
content_type: text
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vector_id: 38211
content:
"preferences given the characteristics of mode or technology) (Daly \r\net al. 2014; Schafer 2017), or other feedback loops (Linton et al. 2015)."


id: 2a32e23a71cc2a27a6b1fa216bc0cc43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4636
content:
"Due to the model types' relative strengths and weaknesses, they are \r\ncommonly applied to certain problem types (Table 2). Models can do \r\nforecasting, which makes projections of how futures may evolve, \r\nor backcasting, which makes projections of a  future that meets \r\na predefined goal such as a policy target of 80% reduction in GHG \r\nemissions from a historical level by a certain year. Models are often \r\nalso used to explore 'what-if' questions, to confirm the feasibility\r\nof certain assumptions/outcomes, and to quantify the  impacts of \r\na change such as a policy under different conditions. Enhancing fuel \r\nefficiency standards, banning internal combustion engines, setting \r\nfuel quality standards, and the impacts of new technologies are \r\ntypical examples of problem types analysed in energy system models."


id: b244edaea2775da8996d69ae385ed5ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"While these four model types drive the component dynamics in \r\ndifferent ways, they commonly include modules that include: \r\nlearning and diffusion (via exogenous, e.g.,  autonomous learning, \r\nor endogenous learning regarding costs and efficiency: i.e.,  cost \r\ndecreases and/or efficiency increases as a  function of adoption, \r\nand increased diffusion due to lower costs) (Jochem et al. 2018), \r\nstock turnover (the performance and characteristics of vehicle \r\nfleets including survival ages, mileages, fuel economies and loads/\r\noccupancy rates are tracked for each new sales/vehicle stocks), \r\nconsumer choice (theories of how people invest in new technology \r\nand utilise different modes of transport based on their individual "


id: 9f9b0c3e024d74183262b1351719df5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"The global/national transport energy system models included in the \r\ntransportation chapter (Chapter 10) are listed below in Table 3."


id: 80f11d44fbea928f0f22ba02285a8b70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"representation of demand-side strategies such as material recycling, \r\nlonger use of products or sharing of products."


id: bc2916ac8480ea2229b42b68cfc97b7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Particularly, demand for industrial products is often considered in \r\nmore detail in bottom-up models of the industry sector than in top\u0002down models by taking more drivers into account. These drivers can \r\nbe, inter alia, population, gross value added, construction activity, \r\ntransport activity, but also changes in material efficiency, recycling \r\nrates and scrap rates as well as product use efficiency (e.g., through \r\nlonger use of products or sharing of products) (Fleiter et al. 2018; \r\nMaterial Economics 2019; IEA 2020b)."


id: 4c8b92de6a02672d6a0b83800d7074a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Industry sector modelling approaches can vary considerably from \r\none another. As with other types of models, a key characteristic of \r\nindustry sector models is related to their geographical scope. While \r\nIAMs are often global in scope, many bottom-up sector models \r\nare limited to individual countries or regions. The models' system \r\nboundaries also differ, with some models fully considering the use of \r\nenergy for feedstock purposes and other models focusing only on the \r\nuse of energy for energetic purposes. Differences between models \r\nalso exist in regard to differentiation between the industry sector and \r\nthe energy transformation sector, concerning, for example, refineries \r\nand industrial power plants."


id: 1fccd1d5a2f27dd6b5820a9681a8e1ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"In most top-down IAMs, some energy-intensive sectors, such as iron \r\nand steel or cement, are included separately, at least in a generalised \r\nmanner, but typically few if any sector-specific technologies are \r\nexplicitly represented. Instead, energy efficiency improvements in \r\nthe industry sector and its subsectors are often either determined by \r\nexogenous assumptions or are a function of energy prices. Likewise, \r\nfuel switching occurs primarily as a  result of changes in relative \r\nfuel prices, which in turn are influenced by CO2 price developments. \r\nIn IAMs that include specific technologies, fuel switching can be \r\nconstrained based on the characteristics of those technologies, \r\nwhile in IAMs with no technological detail, more generic "


id: 7b8a062cbbc3d1ecb32172841bfbdfd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Industry sector models vary in regard to their representation of demand \r\nfor industrial goods or products. A more detailed representation of \r\ndemand in a model allows for a more explicit discussion of different \r\ntypes of drivers of industrial demand and therefore a more detailed "


id: 21c1f6bc5d0f01d01df5bb2640bb6e57
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"Land use related IAM modelling results as presented in Chapter 7 \r\nare based on comprehensive land-use models (LUMs) that are \r\neither integrated directly, or through emulators, into the integrated \r\nassessment framework. Given the increasing awareness of the \r\nimportance of the land use sector to achieve ambitious climate \r\nmitigation targets, LUMs and their integration into IAM systems was \r\none of the key innovations to the integrated assessment over the \r\npast decade to allow for an economy-wide quantification of climate \r\nstabilisation pathways."


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content:
"In bottom-up models, individual technological mitigation options are \r\nrepresented in detail, especially for energy-intensive sectors such as \r\niron and steel, cement and chemicals. Typically, for each considered \r\ntechnology, not only specific energy demand but also investment \r\nand operating costs are included in these models. Investment costs \r\ncan change over time, either based on an exogenous assumption or \r\non an endogenised process such as a learning rate. While bottom\u0002up models often consider technology-specific learning, IAMs cover \r\ntechnological progress in a more general way associated to industry \r\nbranches. The uptake of new technologies is typically restricted in \r\nbottom-up models, for example by assuming a minimum lifetime for \r\nexisting stock or by assuming S-shaped diffusion curves (Fleiter et al. \r\n2018). The industrial sector models included in the industry chapter \r\n(Chapter 11) are listed in Table 4."


id: 1d3f01d00e30429d7dc6064b47890b7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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"LUMs allow developments in the land-use sector to be projected over \r\ntime and the impacts of mitigation policies on different economic \r\n(markets, trade, prices, demand, supply, etc.) and environmental \r\n(land use, emissions, fertiliser, irrigation water use, etc.) indicators \r\nto be assessed. The following models submitted scenarios to the AR6 \r\ndatabase: AIM (Fujimori et al. 2014, 2017; Hasegawa et al. 2017), \r\nEPPA (Chen et al. 2016), GCAM (Calvin et al. 2019), IMAGE (Stehfest \r\net al. 2014), MERGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM (Havlik et al. 2014; Fricko \r\net al. 2017; Huppmann et al. 2019), POLES (Keramidas et al. 2017), \r\nREMIND-MAgPIE (Kriegler et al. 2017; Dietrich et al. 2019), WITCH \r\n(Emmerling et al. 2016)."


id: 28abb81889839b4b8ca17f722ef71e09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"Aggregated, top-down models of the industry sector, as used in \r\nmost IAMs, are typically calibrated based on long-term historical \r\ndata, for example on the diffusion of new technologies or on new \r\nfuels. These models are therefore able to implicitly consider real-life \r\nrestrictions of the whole sector that bottom-up models (with their \r\nfocus on individual technologies) may not fully take into account. \r\nThese restrictions may arise, inter alia, from delays in the construction \r\nof infrastructure or market actors possessing incomplete information \r\nabout new technologies. Furthermore, as IAMs also model the climate \r\nsystem, these models can principally take into account potential \r\nrepercussions of climate change impacts on the growth rate and \r\nstructure of economies."


id: 3a36d808e572ac60d3537fab2f0fef45
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7446
content:
"However, a downside of top-down models is that they are typically \r\nlimited in their representation of individual technologies and \r\nprocesses in the industry sector and particularly of technology\u0002driven structural change. This lack of technological detail limits the \r\nusefulness of these models to analyse technology-specific and sector\u0002specific mitigation measures and related policies. Top-down models \r\nalso tend to have a relatively aggregated representation of industrial \r\nenergy demand, meaning demand-side mitigations strategies such as \r\nrecycling, product-service efficiency and demand reduction options \r\nare difficult to assess with these models (Pauliuk et al. 2017)."


id: 1682833e6e98a2409d60ddf2f0ab8237
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In contrast, technology-rich bottom-up models allow detailed \r\nanalysis of the potential of new technologies, processes and fuels \r\nin individual industrial sectors to reduce GHG emissions. Their often\u0002detailed analysis of the demand side allows demand-side mitigation \r\nstrategies to be evaluated. Furthermore, radical future changes in \r\ntechnology, climate policy or social norms can more easily be reflected \r\nin bottom-up models than in top-down models which are calibrated \r\non past observations. Both types of models are typically not able to \r\naccount for product substitution (e.g., steel vs plastics) arising from \r\nchanging production cost differentials or changing product quality \r\ndue to new production processes. In principle, technology-rich input\u0002output models could fill this gap."


id: bcba5cf0d47a73b0ab85c80713d5b3cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"LUMs project demand for food, feed, other industrial or energy uses \r\nfor different agriculture and forestry commodities over time. While \r\npartial equilibrium models typically use reduced-form demand \r\nfunctions with greater level of detail at the commodity level, however \r\nlimited agriculture and forestry, Computable General Equilibrium \r\n(CGE) models represent demand starting from utility functions from \r\nwhich it is possible to derive demand functions, and functional forms \r\nfor income and price elasticities, however for a more limited set of \r\nagricultural and forestry commodities but with full coverage of all \r\neconomic sectors (Valin et al. 2014; von  Lampe et al. 2014). Over "


id: e0808ae495f06d130f3f1cfc64a5482f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"time, demand for food, feed, and other industrial uses is projected \r\nconditional on population and income growth while bioenergy \r\ndemand is typically informed in partial equilibrium (PE) models by \r\nlinking with IAMs/energy systems models, and is usually endogenous \r\nin CGE/IAMs (Hasegawa et al. 2020). Depending on the model, \r\ndemand projections are sensitive to price changes (Valin et al. \r\n2014). International trade is often represented in LUMs using either \r\nArmington or spatial equilibrium approaches (von Lampe et al. 2014)."


id: a43eb366785c4935e8fe4de783361032
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"There are significant differences between UNFCCC nationally reported \r\nGHG inventories and analytical global land use models. According \r\nto Grassi et al. (2017), this discrepancy results in a  3GtCO2-eq \r\ndifference in estimates between country reports and global models. \r\nThe difference relies on different methods to classify and assess \r\nmanaged forests and forest management fluxes (Houghton et al. \r\n2012; Pongratz et al. 2014; Smith et al. 2014; Tubiello et al. 2015; \r\nGrassi et al. 2017, 2021). While global models account for GHG \r\nemissions from indirect human-induced effects and natural effects in \r\nunmanaged land, countries only consider fluxes of land use and land\u0002use change in managed land. In order to produce policy-relevant \r\nland-use model exercises, reconciling these differences is needed by \r\nharmonising definitions and approaches of anthropogenic land and \r\nthe treatment of indirect environmental change (Grassi et al. 2017)."


id: 27ae42f0d2a3c85dcdc41e6e88dfb803
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"A.III.I.7.3.2 Treatment of Terrestrial Carbon Dioxide Removal \r\nOptions including Biomass Supply for Bioenergy"


id: 617826ed71e05253fbb2beee430532b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal options are only partially included \r\nin LUMs and mostly rely on afforestation and bioenergy with carbon \r\ncapture and storage (BECCS) (Fuss et al. 2014, 2018; Minx et al. 2018; \r\nSmith et al. 2019; Butnar et al. 2020). Especially some nature-based \r\nsolutions (Griscom et al. 2017) such as soil carbon management \r\n(Paustian et al. 2016), which have the potential to alter the \r\ncontribution of land-based mitigation in terms of timing, potential and \r\nsustainability consequences, are only recently being implemented in \r\nLUMs (Frank et al. 2017; Humpenoder et al. 2020). The representation \r\nof bioenergy feedstocks varies across models but typically LUMs have \r\ncomprehensive representation of a series of crops (starch, sugar, oil, \r\nwood/lignocellulosic feedstocks) or residues/byproducts that can be \r\nused for liquid and solid bioenergy production (Hanssen et al. 2019)."


id: 887c683e22f65affda600668f212a46e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:27
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content:
"Aside reporting the implications on agriculture, forestry and other \r\nland use (AFOLU) GHG emissions, LUMs can provide a  set of \r\nenvironmental and socio-economic impact indicators to assess the \r\nquantified climate stabilisation pathways in a  broader sustainable \r\ndevelopment agenda (van Vuuren et al. 2015; Obersteiner et al. 2016; \r\nvan Vuuren et al. 2019; Frank et al. 2021; Soergel et al. 2021). These \r\nindicators typically span from land use area developments (Popp et al. \r\n2017; Stehfest et al. 2019), fertiliser use, irrigation water use and \r\nenvironmental flows (Bonsch et al. 2015; Pastor et al. 2019; Chang \r\net al. 2021; de Vos et al. 2021), and on biodiversity (Leclere et al. \r\n2020; Marquardt et al. 2021), to market impacts on commodity prices \r\nand food consumption, or impact on undernourishment (Hasegawa \r\net al. 2018; Doelman et al. 2019; Fujimori et al. 2019a; Hasegawa et al. \r\n2020; Soergel et al. 2021)."


id: 271ec5d4747df918b63beabb568d5b50
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climate model emulators (often referred to as reduced complexity or \r\nsimple climate models) are used to integrate the WGI knowledge of \r\nphysical climate science into the WGIII assessment. Hence, emulators \r\nare used to assess the climate implications of the GHG and other "


id: bc112ad161ca93e189db6f6d41f15882
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30324
content:
"emissions trajectories that IAMs produce (van Vuuren et al. 2008; \r\nRogelj et al. 2011; Clarke et al. 2014; Schaeffer et al. 2015; Rogelj \r\net al. 2018a). The IAM literature typically uses one of two approaches: \r\ncomprehensive emulators such as MAGICC (Meinshausen et al. 2011) \r\nor Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) or minimal complexity representations \r\nsuch as the representation used in DICE (Nordhaus 2018), PAGE \r\n(Yumashev et al. 2019; Kikstra et al. 2021c) and Fund (Waldhoff \r\net al. 2014). In physical science research, a wider range of different \r\nemulators are used (Nicholls et al. 2020b, 2021a)."


id: 3a901c6f5da4fc1a147a9e52ec842d34
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) describe the \r\ncoupled energy-land-economy-climate system (Weyant 2009; Krey \r\n2014; Weyant 2017). They typically capture all greenhouse gas \r\n(GHG) emissions induced by human activities and, in many cases, \r\nemissions of other climate forcers like sulphate aerosols. Process\u0002based IAMs represent most GHG and climate pollutant emissions by \r\nmodelling the underlying processes in energy and land use. Those \r\nmodels are able to endogenously describe the change in emissions \r\ndue to changes in energy and land use activities, particularly in \r\nresponse to climate action. But IAMs differ in the extent to which \r\nall emissions and the corresponding sources, processes and activities \r\nare represented endogenously and, thus, can be subjected to policy \r\nanalysis.1\r\n IAMs also differ regarding the scope of representing carbon \r\nremoval options and their interlinkage with other vital systems such \r\nas the energy and land-use sectors."


id: 8864a580b27d8487f2c1cea7fd82d5e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"A key application of emulators within IPCC WGIII is the classification \r\nof emission scenarios with respect to their global mean temperature \r\noutcomes (Clarke et al. 2014; Rogelj et al. 2018a). WGIII relies on \r\nemulators to assess the full range of carbon-cycle and climate \r\nresponse uncertainty of thousands of scenarios, as assessed by AR6 \r\nWGI. An exercise of such amplitude is currently infeasible with more \r\ncomputationally demanding state-of-the-art Earth system models. \r\nCross-Chapter Box 7.1 in AR6 WGI documents how emulators used \r\nin WGIII are consistent with the physical science assessment of WGI \r\n(Forster et al. 2021)."


id: 3835b17524c9b276d24d5053b50b4a5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Global IAMs are used to analyse global emissions scenarios \r\nextrapolating current trends under a  variety of assumptions and \r\nclimate change action pathways under a variety of global goals. In \r\nrecent years, a  class of national and regional IAMs have emerged \r\nthat describe the coupled energy-land-economy system in a  given \r\ngeography. They typically have higher sectoral, policy and technology \r\nresolution than global models and make assumptions about boundary \r\nconditions set by global markets and international policy regimes. \r\nThese IAMs are used to study trends and transformation pathways \r\nfor a given region (Shukla and Chaturvedi 2011; Capros et al. 2014; \r\nLucena et al. 2016)."


id: 53098d39d058428c5aa374b87d11ac18
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Finally, the recently developed OpenSCM-Runner package (Nicholls \r\net al. 2020a) provides users with the ability to run multiple emulators \r\nfrom a  single interface. OpenSCM-Runner has been built in \r\ncollaboration with the WGIII research community and forms part of \r\nthe WGIII assessment (Annex III.II.2.5.1)."


id: f049145ce948d09c2836f2c44fdbc36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"including sensitivity analysis (McJeon et al. 2011; Luderer et al. \r\n2013; Rogelj et al. 2013a; Bosetti et al. 2015; Marangoni et al. 2017; \r\nGiannousakis et al. 2021), model comparisons (Clarke et al. 2009; \r\nKriegler et al. 2014a, 2015a; Riahi et al. 2015; Tavoni et al. 2015; \r\nKriegler et al. 2016; Riahi et al. 2017; Luderer et al. 2018; Roelfsema \r\net al. 2020; Riahi et al. 2021; van Soest et al. 2021), model diagnostics \r\n(Kriegler et al. 2015a; Wilkerson et al. 2015; Harmsen et al. 2021), and \r\ncomparison with historical patterns (Wilson et al. 2013; van Sluisveld \r\net al. 2015; Napp et al. 2017)."


id: 1df9a31ff2df1c5b8c8fb6843afbbded
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2466
content:
"Energy models can be also embedded into a  broader, long-term \r\nmacroeconomic context in a general equilibrium model (Bauer et al. \r\n2008; Messner and Schrattenholzer 2000). The demands for final \r\nenergy and energy services are endogenously driven by an economic \r\ngrowth model that also endogenises the economic allocation problem \r\nof macroeconomic resources for the energy sector that crowd out \r\nwith alternatives. This allows impact analysis of climate policies on \r\neconomic growth and structural change, investment financing and \r\ncrowding out as well as income distribution and tax revenue recycling \r\n(Guivarch et al. 2011). Moreover, general equilibrium models also \r\nderive mitigation costs in terms of GDP losses and consumption \r\nlosses, which comprise the full macroeconomic impacts rather than \r\nonly the narrow energy-related costs (Paltsev and Capros 2013)."


id: b2631f787fbf32daa8c168afcc6b74c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In recent years, substantial efforts have been devoted to improve \r\nand integrate land-use sector models in IAMs (Popp et al. 2014b, \r\n2017). This acknowledges the importance of land-use GHG \r\nemissions of the agricultural and forestry sectors as well as the \r\nrole of bioenergy, afforestation and other land-based mitigation \r\nmeasures. The integration is particularly important in light of the \r\nlong-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement, for four reasons \r\n(IPCC 2019b). First, the GHG emissions from land-use change \r\naccount for more than 10% of global GHG emissions (Kuramochi "


id: 55792063a4a4b6611826808dfeb72a23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"There exists a broad range of process-based IAMs that differ regarding \r\nthe economic modelling approaches (Annex III.I.2) as well as the \r\nmethodology and detail of sector representation (Annex  III.I.3-7) \r\nand how they are interlinked with each other."


id: 29244fad52eeac9d44638cebe7d9759c
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"This leads to differences in model results regarding global aggregates \r\nas well as sectoral and regional outputs. Several approaches have \r\nbeen used to evaluate the performance of IAMs and understand \r\ndifferences in IAM behaviour (Schwanitz 2013; Wilson et al. 2021), "


id: debd4143d5ea667fdf44e33af51985fb
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content:
"Arvesen et al. 2018; Tokimatsu et al. 2020). This holistic perspective \r\nensures mitigation pathways do not exacerbate challenges for other \r\nsectors or environmental indicators. At the same time, pathways \r\nare leveraging potential synergies along the way towards achieving \r\nmultiple goals."


id: 9f5f9bef4cceccf38600e5f06cb93013
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"IAMs rely on biophysical models with a relatively high degree of spatial \r\nand temporal resolution to inform coarser-scale economic models of \r\nthe potentials and costs for land, water and energy systems (Johnson \r\net al. 2019). IAMs leverage population, GDP and  urbanisation \r\nprojections to generate consistent water, energy and crop demand \r\nprojections across multiple sectors (e.g.,  agriculture, livestock, \r\ndomestic, manufacturing and electricity generation) (Mouratiadou \r\net al. 2016). The highly distributed nature of decisions and impacts \r\nacross sectors, particularly for land and water, has been addressed \r\nusing multi-scale frameworks that embed regional and sub-regional \r\nmodels within global IAMs (Mosnier et al. 2014; Hejazi et al. 2015; \r\nBijl et al. 2018; Portugal-Pereira et al. 2018). These analyses have \r\ndemonstrated how local constraints and policies interact with \r\nnational and international strategies aimed at reducing emissions."


id: 36f3a0b434b2219ab37fd38a7082539b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"A key purpose of IAMs is to provide orientation knowledge for the \r\ndeliberation of future climate action strategies by policymakers, civil \r\nsociety and the private sector. This is done by presenting different \r\ncourses of actions (climate change and climate action pathways) \r\ntowards a  variety of long-term climate outcomes under a  broad \r\nrange of assumptions about future socio-economic, institutional \r\nand technological developments. The resulting climate change and \r\nclimate action pathways can be analysed in terms of their outcomes \r\ntowards a set of societal goals (such as the SDGs) and the resulting \r\ntrade-offs between different pathways. Key trade-offs that have \r\nbeen investigated in the IAM literature are between (i) no, moderate, \r\nand ambitious mitigation pathways (Riahi et al. 2017), (ii) early vs \r\ndelayed mitigation action (Riahi et al. 2015; Luderer et al. 2018), \r\n(iii) global action with a  focus on economic efficiency equalising "


id: cc329b03b347f2711d27ed6b54730592
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content:
"An energy-water-land nexus approach integrates the analysis of \r\nlinked resources and infrastructure systems to provide a consistent \r\nplatform for multi-sector decision-making (Howells et al. 2013). Many \r\nof the IAMs that contributed to the assessment incorporate a nexus \r\napproach that considers simultaneous constraints on land, water and \r\nenergy, as well as important mutual dependencies (Fricko et al. 2017; \r\nFujimori et al. 2017; Calvin et al. 2019; Dietrich et al. 2019; van Vuuren \r\net al. 2019). Recently IAMs have also been integrated with life cycle \r\nassessment tools in assessing climate mitigation policies to better \r\nunderstand the relevance of life cycle GHG emissions in cost-optimal \r\nmitigation scenarios (Portugal-Pereira et al. 2016; Pehl et al. 2017; "


id: 33d40315a6cd394349e141e3cdc65c36
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content:
"Figure 3 | The representation of Sustainable Development Goals by Integrated Assessment Models. (a) Individual target coverage from a multi-model survey; \r\nand (b) SDG interactions and coverage by IAM models according to a combination of expert and model surveys. The strength dimension of SDG interactions is indicated by grey \r\nshading: darker shades represent strong interactions while white represents no interactions. Orange cells indicate where there is the highest agreement between the importance \r\nof interactions and model representation, while blue coloured cells show the most important interactions without model representation. Source: van Soest et al. (2019)."


id: 6a0a7c7bbbdcf7678472164e7f2c50ad
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content:
"or fossil fuel subsidy removal. If certain technologies or activities are \r\nrelated to spill-overs such as technology learning, carbon pricing \r\nmight be complemented by technology support (Schultes et al. 2018). \r\nIf carbon-pricing policies are fragmented or delayed, additional and \r\nearly sector policies can help reduce distortions and carbon leakage \r\neffects (Bauer et al. 2020b). All these variations to the policy regime \r\ncan lead to very different transformation pathways and policy costs, \r\nwhich is a core result of the IAM analysis."


id: d09fb8bac8211e25e18c3510d0a30382
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34053
content:
"By applying sensitivity analysis, IAMs can be used to assess the \r\nimportance of strategically developing new technologies and \r\noptions for mitigation and identifying sticking points in climate \r\npolicy frameworks. The sensitivity analysis evaluates differences \r\nin outcomes subject to changes in assumptions. For instance, the \r\nassumption about the timing and costs of CCS and CDR availability \r\ncan be varied (Bauer et al. 2020a). The differences in mitigation \r\ncosts and the transformation pathways support the assessment of \r\npolicy prioritisation by identifying and quantifying crucial levers for \r\nachieving long-term climate mitigation targets such as R&D efforts \r\nand timing of policies."


id: 5cb582bb2b3c4d12be9ebb072330069
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13574
content:
"The application of IAMs and their results for providing knowledge \r\non climate change response strategies have been criticised based on \r\nfour arguments (Gambhir et al. 2019; Keppo et al. 2021). First, there \r\nare concerns that IAMs are missing important dynamics, for example \r\nwith regard to climate damages and economic co-benefits of \r\nmitigation (Stern 2016), demand-side responses (Wilson et al. 2012), \r\nbioenergy, land degradation and management (Creutzig et al. 2015; \r\nIPCC 2019b), carbon dioxide removal (Smith et al. 2016), rapid \r\ntechnological progress in the renewable energy sector (Creutzig et al. \r\n2017), actor heterogeneity, and distributional impacts of climate \r\nchange and climate policy. This has given rise to criticism that \r\nIAMs lack credibility in a set of crucial assumptions, among which \r\nstands out the critique on the availability of carbon dioxide removal \r\ntechnologies (Anderson and Peters 2016; Bednar et al. 2019)."


id: dcf8f4c21f19fec0af4337516c08d76d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Most policy analysis with process-based IAMs apply a mix of short\u0002term policy evaluation and long-term policy optimisation. Policy \r\nevaluation applies an exogenous set of policies such as the stated \r\nNDCs and evaluates the emission outcomes. Policy optimisation is \r\nmostly implemented as a  cost-effectiveness analysis: a  long-term \r\nclimate stabilisation target is set to derive the optimal mitigation \r\nstrategy that equalises marginal abatement cost across sectors, GHGs \r\nand countries. This optimal mitigation strategy can be implemented \r\nby a  broad set of well-coordinated sector-specific policies or by \r\ncomprehensive carbon-pricing policies."


id: de2e1283f0c7f53eb2bd3229ae81fab8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Most commonly, the baseline scenario is either a  no-policy \r\nbaseline or based on the NDCs applying an extrapolation beyond \r\n2030 (Grant et al. 2020; Roelfsema et al. 2020). The climate policy \r\nregimes most commonly applied include a  long-term target to be \r\nreached. The optimal climate strategy can be phased in gradually \r\nor applied immediately after 2020. It can focus on a global carbon \r\nprice equalising marginal abatement costs across countries or policy \r\nintensities can vary across countries and sectors in the near to medium \r\nterm. The climate policy regime can include or exclude effort-sharing \r\nmechanisms and transfers between regions. Also, it can be extended \r\nto include additional sector policies such as improved forest protection "


id: d6a990d49b80709ddc10922e6be3a63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
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content:
"Finally, there are concerns that IAM analysis could focus on only \r\na subset of relevant futures and thus push society in certain directions \r\nwithout sufficient scrutiny (Beck and Mahony 2017). IAMs aim to \r\nexplore a  wide range of socio-economic, technology and policy \r\nassumptions (Riahi et al. 2017), but it remains a constant challenge to \r\ncapture all relevant perspectives (O'Neill et al. 2020). These concerns \r\ncan be addressed by adopting an iterative approach between \r\nresearchers and societal actors in shaping research questions and \r\nIAM applications (Edenhofer and Kowarsch 2015). IAM research is \r\nconstantly taking up concerns about research gaps and fills it with \r\nnew pathway research, as, for example, occurred for low energy \r\ndemand and limited bioenergy with CCS scenarios (Grubler et al. \r\n2018; van Vuuren et al. 2018)."


id: 11b46e1cfbebf43ac92e4dc593d06fb9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"ambition (Clarke et al. 2014; Schleussner et al. 2016). In addition, \r\ndifferent transformation pathways to the same goal are often used \r\nto analyse trade-offs between different routes towards this goal \r\n(Rogelj et al. 2018a). These scenarios need to be looked at as a set to \r\nunderstand attainable outcomes and the trade-offs between them. \r\nWith scenarios, context matters."


id: 83271560ad505ae0ad93ffbcecafc41b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
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content:
"Scenarios are descriptions of alternative future developments. They \r\nare used to explore the potential implications of possible future \r\ndevelopments and how they might depend on alternative courses of \r\naction. They are particularly useful in the context of deep uncertainty. \r\nScenarios are conditional on the realisation of external assumptions \r\nand can be used to explore possible outcomes under a  variety \r\nof assumptions."


id: 5087b8661cc36c9fc54e2148632dba14
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 11441
content:
"Future climate change is a  prime example for the application of \r\nscenarios. It is driven by human activities across the world and \r\nthus can be altered by human agency. It affects all regions over \r\nmany centuries to come. Humankind's response to climate change \r\ntouches not only on the way we use energy and land, but also on \r\nsocio-economic and institutional layers of societal development. \r\nClimate change scenarios provide a  central tool to analyse this \r\nwicked problem."


id: 7255e1e2048c63426f8173d401527869
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17357
content:
"Climate change scenarios are developed for a number of purposes \r\n(O'Neill et al. 2020). First, they are constructed to explore possible \r\nclimate change futures covering the causal chain from (i) socio\u0002economic developments to (ii) energy and land use to (iii) greenhouse \r\ngas emissions to (iv) changes in the atmospheric composition of \r\ngreenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers and the associated \r\nradiative forcing to (v) changes in temperature and precipitation \r\npatterns to (vi) bio-physical impacts of climate change and finally to \r\n(vii) impacts on socio-economic developments, thus closing the loop. \r\nQuantitative scenarios exploring possible climate change futures \r\nare often called climate change projections and climate change \r\nimpact projections."


id: 4737bfb2b75aefc145c6f16990fcd6ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Fourth, climate change scenarios and their assessment aim to inform \r\nsociety (Kowarsch et al. 2017; Weber et al. 2018; Auer et al. 2021). \r\nTo achieve this, it is important to connect climate change scenarios \r\nto broader societal development goals (Riahi et al. 2012; van Vuuren \r\net al. 2015; Kriegler et al. 2018c; Soergel et al. 2021) and relate them \r\nto social, sectoral and regional contexts (Absar and Preston 2015; \r\nFrame et al. 2018; Kok et al. 2019; Aguiar et al. 2020). To this end, \r\nscenarios can be seen as tools for societal discourse and decision\u0002making to coordinate perceptions about possible and desirable \r\nfutures between societal actors (Edenhofer and Kowarsch 2015; Beck \r\nand Mahony 2017)."


id: 653499605302e8ddc99d7dba4e58e59c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Different types of climate change scenarios are linked to different \r\npurposes and knowledge domains and different models are used \r\nto construct them (Annex III.I). Global reference and mitigation \r\nscenarios and their associated emissions projections, which are often \r\ncalled emission scenarios, and national, sector and service transition \r\nscenarios are key types of scenarios assessed in the Working Group III \r\nreport. They are briefly summarised below.5"


id: 56fd4dbcb7c57204a9d7868e9f8fb1f2
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"A brief description of the common climate change scenario \r\nframework with relevance for all three IPCC Working Groups is \r\nprovided in Annex III.II.1.3, and a discussion how the WGI and WGII \r\nassessments relate to the WGIII scenario assessment is given in \r\nAnnex III.II.2.5."


id: eb1dcdc9c9d6c5516a453e1be72546a1
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content:
"term (Bertram et al. 2021; Hasegawa et al. 2021; Riahi et al. 2021). \r\nOther large-scale multi-model studies looked into specific topics: the \r\ninternational economic implications of the NDCs in 2030 (EMF36) \r\n(Bohringer et al. 2021), the impact of mitigating short-lived climate \r\nforcers on warming and health co-benefits in mitigation pathways \r\n(EMF30) (Harmsen et al. 2020; Smith et al. 2020b) and the role and \r\nimplications of large-scale bioenergy deployment in global mitigation \r\npathways (EMF33) (Bauer et al. 2020a; Rose et al. 2020)."


id: ca8cee381df1983e5f2fbdd01bdec513
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"The scenarios from most of these and many other studies were \r\ncollected in the AR6 scenario database (Annex III.II.3.2) and are \r\nprimarily assessed in Chapter  3 of the report. However sectoral \r\nchapters have also used the scenarios, including their climate \r\nmitigation categorisations, to ensure consistent cross-chapter \r\ntreatment. Only a  small fraction of these scenarios were already \r\navailable to the assessment of global mitigation pathways in \r\nthe Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5degC (SR1.5) (Rogelj \r\net al. 2018a) and were included in the supporting SR1.5 database \r\n(Huppmann et al. 2018)."


id: 3b3a9c6ec11879171cdddfdffa6b9304
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"A large number of transition scenarios is developed on a national/\r\nregional level by national integrated assessment, energy-economy \r\nor computable general equilibrium models, among others. These \r\naim to analyse the implications of current climate plans of countries \r\nand regions, as well as long-term strategies until 2050 investigating \r\ndifferent degrees of low-carbon development. National/regional \r\ntransition scenarios are assessed in Chapter 4 of the report."


id: 9b485f8eb52876716deb819119a5fa7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 24566
content:
"Recent research has focused on several different types of national \r\ntransition scenarios that focus on accelerated climate mitigation \r\npathways in the near term to 2050. These include scenarios considered "


id: ca907c8af5e3f6c7de2b4cc20c5fa41f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"by the authors as tied to meeting specific global climate goals6 and \r\nscenarios tied to specific policy targets (e.g.,  carbon neutrality or \r\n80-95% reduction from a  certain baseline year). A  majority of the \r\naccelerated national transition modelling studies up to 2050 evaluate \r\npathways that the authors consider compatible with a  2degC global \r\nwarming limit, with fewer scenarios defined as compatible with 1.5degC \r\nglobal pathways. Regionally, national transition scenarios have centred \r\non countries in Asia (particularly in China, India, Japan), in the European \r\nUnion, and in North America, with fewer and more narrowly focused \r\nscenario studies in Latin America and Africa (Lepault and Lecocq 2021)."


id: d58be4884e5f3a070ab19d9d0524bdd6
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content:
"A central feature of service transition pathways is a  focus on the \r\nprovision of adequate energy services to provide decent standards \r\nof living for all as the main scenario objective. Energy services are \r\nproxies for well-being, with common examples being provision \r\nof shelter (expressed as m2\r\n per capita), mobility (expressed as \r\npassenger-kilometres), nutrition (expressed as kCal per capita), and "


id: 2d532c58bcc27f3038c539cc65253ee3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5258
content:
"et al. 2014) (Figure 4). It is structured along two dimensions: socio\u0002economic assumptions varied along the SSPs, and climate (forcing) \r\noutcomes varied along the Representative Concentration Pathways \r\n(RCPs) (van Vuuren et al. 2011b). To distinguish resulting emission \r\nscenarios from the original four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and \r\nRCP8.5), they are typically named SSPx-y with x = {1,...,5} the SSP \r\nlabel and y = {1.9, 2.6, 3.4, 4.5, 6.0, 7.0, 8.5} W m-2 the nominal \r\nforcing level in 2100. The four forcing levels that were already \r\ncovered by the original RCPs are bolded here."


id: 60c88af911d2c71e3fca72f90dff2da5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"The integrated assessment modelling community has used the SSPs to \r\nprovide a set of global integrated energy-land use-emissions scenarios \r\n(Bauer et al. 2017; Calvin et al. 2017; Fricko et al. 2017; Fujimori \r\net al. 2017; Kriegler et al. 2017; Popp et al. 2017; Rao et al. 2017b; \r\nRiahi et al. 2017; van Vuuren et al. 2017b; Rogelj et al. 2018b) in line \r\nwith the matrix architecture of the scenario framework (van Vuuren "


id: 51429b100dba4d9fbcb3cfd00bd1c706
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11576
content:
"The development of a scenario involves design choices, in addition to \r\nthe selection of the model. This section will focus on key choices related \r\nto scenario design, and the respective socio-economic, technical, and "


id: 49e9f9964ac7310a00e4640d16a6f110
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"scenarios based on the SSP-RCP framework also applied radiative \r\nforcing levels in 2100 (Riahi et al. 2017). Temperature targets were \r\noften implemented by imposing end-of-century carbon budgets, that \r\nis, cumulative emissions up until 2100. In the case of 2degC pathways, \r\nthose budgets were usually chosen such that the 2degC limit was not \r\novershoot with some pre-defined probability (Luderer et al. 2018). \r\nArguably, the availability of net negative CO2 emissions has led to \r\nhigh levels of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of \r\nthe century, although CDR deployment is often already substantial to \r\ncompensate residual emissions (Rogelj et al. 2018a)."


id: 32e0e481aacf1098f69099a817a203f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 6218
content:
"policy assumptions. Model selection cannot be separated from these \r\nchoices. The various advantages and disadvantages of models are \r\ndescribed in Annex III, Part I (Modelling Methods)."


id: 236b15cdda706ef934f0b93c84cade92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3430
content:
"Recent literature has increasingly focused on alternative approaches \r\nsuch as peak warming or peak CO2 budget constraints to implement \r\ntargets (Rogelj et al. 2019b; Johansson et al. 2020; Riahi et al. 2021). \r\nNevertheless, due to the availability of net negative CO2 emissions \r\nand the assumption of standard (exponentially increasing) emissions\u0002pricing profiles from economic theory, peak and decline temperature \r\nprofiles still occurred in a large number of mitigation pathways in \r\nthe literature even in the presence of peak warming and carbon \r\nbudget targets (Strefler et al. 2021b). This has led to proposals to \r\ncombine peak targets with additional assumptions affecting the \r\ntiming of emissions reductions like a constraint on net negative CO2"


id: b62e81b1d107800bfff680819a522d55
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"emissions (Obersteiner et al. 2018; Rogelj et al. 2019a; Riahi et al. \r\n2021) and different carbon pricing profiles (Strefler et al. 2021b). \r\nThese proposals are aiming at a stabilisation rather than a peak and \r\ndecline of warming under a given warming limit. However, arguments \r\nin support of peak and decline warming profiles also exist: the goal of \r\nhedging against positive feedback loops in the Earth system (Lenton \r\net al. 2019) and the aim of increasing the likelihood of staying below \r\na  temperature limit towards the end of the century (Schleussner \r\net al. 2016). It is also noteworthy that peak and decline temperature \r\npathways are connected to achieving net-zero GHG emissions (with \r\nCO2-eq emissions calculated using GWP100) in the second half of the \r\ncentury (Rogelj et al. 2021)."


id: 1d62df040b020acabaf74192d1c83092
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Efficiency considerations: Process-based IAMs typically calculate \r\ncost-effective mitigation pathways towards a  given target as \r\na  benchmark case (Clarke et al. 2014). In these pathways, global \r\nmitigation costs are minimised by exploiting the abatement options \r\nwith the least marginal costs across all sectors and regions at any \r\ntime, implicitly assuming a  globally integrated and harmonised \r\nmitigation regime. This idealised benchmark is typically compared \r\nacross different climate targets or with reference scenarios \r\nextrapolating current emissions trends (UNEP 2019). It naturally \r\nevolves over time as the onset of cost-effective action is being set \r\nto the immediate future of respective studies. This onset was pushed \r\nback from 2010-2015 in studies assessed by AR5 (Clarke et al. 2014) \r\nto the first modelling time step after 2020 in studies assessed by AR6."


id: 49612c1dbc8dbabc0f0740b0ceb7dec9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Scenarios limiting warming to below 2degC phase in climate policies in \r\nall regions and sectors. Almost all converge to a harmonised global \r\nmitigation regime before the end of century (with the exception \r\nof Bauer et al. (2020b)). In practice, policies are often a  mix of \r\nregulations, standards, or subsidies. Implementing these real-world \r\npolicies can give different outcomes to optimal uniform carbon \r\npricing (Mercure et al. 2019). Modelled carbon prices will generally \r\nbe lower when other policies are implemented (Calvin et al. 2014a; \r\nBertram et al. 2015). As countries implement more and a diverse set \r\nof policies, the need to further develop the policy assumptions in \r\nmodels is becoming apparent (Grant et al. 2020; O'Neill et al. 2020; \r\nKeppo et al. 2021)."


id: 470f91cd829264d16c0b728489c0f49
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The notion of cost-effectiveness is sensitive to economic assumptions in \r\nthe underlying models, particularly concerning the assumptions on pre\u0002existing market distortions (Guivarch et al. 2011; Clarke et al. 2014; Krey \r\net al. 2014) and the discount rate on future values. Those assumptions \r\nare often not clearly expressed. Most models have a discount rate of \r\n3-5%, though the range of alternatives is larger. Cost-benefit IAMs \r\nhave had a tradition of exploring the importance of discount rates, but \r\nprocess-based IAMs have generally not. A lower discount rate brings \r\nmitigation forward in time and uses less net negative CO2 emissions \r\nin cases where target overshoot is allowed (Emmerling et al. 2019; \r\nRealmonte et al. 2019). While most models report discount rates in \r\ndocumentation, there is arguably too little sensitivity analysis of how \r\nthe discount rate affects modelled outcomes."


id: 8ba61e847b0189d84a9e25ff2b74481c
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Cost-effective pathways typically do not account for climate impacts \r\nbelow the temperature limit, although recent updates to climate \r\ndamage estimates suggest a  strengthening of near-term action in \r\ncost-effective mitigation pathways (Schultes et al. 2021). Recently, \r\nthe research community has begun to combine mitigation pathway \r\nanalysis with ex post analysis of associated climate impacts and the \r\nbenefits of mitigation (Drouet et al. 2021). Cost-effective pathways \r\nthat tap into least cost abatement options globally without considering \r\ncompensation schemes to equalise the mitigation burden between \r\ncountries are not compatible with equity considerations. There is \r\na  large body of literature exploring international burden-sharing \r\nregimes to accompany globally cost-effective mitigation pathways \r\n(Tavoni et al. 2015; Pan et al. 2017; van den Berg et al. 2020)."


id: b4bca839393a95feba37c337cf605853
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Policy assumptions: Cost-effective mitigation scenarios assume that \r\nclimate policies are globally uniform. There is a substantial literature "


id: 88cf9d541d54630cb835e927fde6f92c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 21232
content:
"2018) proved its value for the assessment as well as for broad use of \r\nthe scenario information by researchers and stakeholders. This is now \r\nbeing continued for AR6."


id: d70a9856e518d4dc4bccefed82868d59
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content:
"Within these key scenario design choices, model choice cannot be \r\nignored. Not all models can implement aspects of a scenario in the \r\nsame way. Alternative target implementations are difficult for some \r\nmodel frameworks, and implementation issues also arise around \r\ntechnological change and policy implementation. Certain scenario \r\ndesigns may lock out certain modelling frameworks. These issues \r\nindicate the need for a diversity of scenario designs (Johansson et al. \r\n2020) to ensure that model diversity can be fully exploited."


id: 7b63cf1e383c5870ba40206c1603c786
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content:
"It is possible for many assumptions to be harmonised, depending on \r\nthe research question. The SSPs were one project aimed at increasing \r\nharmonisation and comparability. It is also possible to harmonise \r\nemission data, technology assumptions, and policies (Giarola et al. \r\n2021). While harmonisation facilitates greater comparability between \r\nstudies, it also limits scenario and model diversity. The advantages \r\nand disadvantages of harmonisation need to be discussed for \r\neach model study."


id: ebe7642b069643fc31fe04da75956890
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content:
"In order to develop feasibility metrics of mitigation scenarios \r\n(Chapter 3, Section 3.8), the assessment relied on the multidimensional \r\nfeasibility framework developed in Brutschin et al. (2021), considering \r\nfive feasibility dimensions: (i) geophysical, (ii) technological, \r\n(iii)  economic, (iv) institutional and (v) socio-cultural. For each \r\ndimension, a set of indicators was developed, capturing not only the \r\nscale but also the timing and the disruptiveness of transformative \r\nchange (Kriegler et al. 2018b). All AR6 scenarios (C1-C3 climate \r\ncategories) were categorised through this framework to quantify \r\nfeasibility challenges by climate category, time, policy architecture \r\nand by feasibility dimension, summarised in Figure 3.43 (Chapter 3)."


id: bafa4742f08d5b5ad34cdca473417283
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Table 8 | Feasibility dimensions, associated indicators and thresholds for the onset of medium and high concerns about feasibility (Chapter 3.8)."


id: d340516b32cd14c42f41fa21faebf7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34511
content:
"concern that might be challenging but within reach, given certain \r\nenablers, (iii) high levels of concern representing unprecedented \r\nlevels of transformation, attainable only under consistent enabling \r\nconditions. Indicator thresholds defining these three levels of \r\nconcern were obtained from the available literature and developed \r\nwith additional empirical literature. Table  8 summarises the main \r\nindicators used and the associated thresholds for medium and high \r\nlevels of concern. Finally, we aggregated feasibility concerns for each \r\ndimension and each decade, employing the geometric mean, a non\u0002compensatory method which limits the degree of substitutability \r\nbetween indicators, and used for example by the United Nations for \r\nthe Human Development Index (HDI). Alternative aggregation scores \r\nsuch as the counting of scenarios exceeding the thresholds were \r\nalso implemented."


id: 75e60abb18f7733ec54e22c79d3c1b7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5degC (SR1.5), \r\nillustrative pathways (IPs) were used in addition to descriptions of \r\nthe key characteristics of the full set of scenarios in the database \r\nto assess and communicate the results from the scenario literature. \r\nWhile the latter express the spread in scenario outcomes highlighting \r\nuncertain vs robust outcomes, IPs can be used to contrast different \r\nstories of mitigating climate change (Rogelj et al. 2018a)."


id: b80fcba4c6cadd46f1407584012fa70f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29600
content:
"Following the example of the SR1.5, IPs have also been selected for \r\nthe AR6 of WGIII. In contrast to SR1.5, the selection needed to cover \r\na  larger range of climate outcomes while keeping the number of \r\nIPs limited. The selection focused on a range of critical themes that "


id: 6dc6adf44f25922fc4c07304c544df00
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16572
content:
"current policies as formulated around 2018 (Current Policies, CurPol) \r\nthrough to 2030 and then continues to follow a similar mitigation \r\neffort to 2100. The associated quantitative scenario (NGFS 2021) \r\nselected by Chapter 3 leads to about 3degC-4degC warming at the end of \r\nthe century. The second reference pathway follows emission pledges \r\nto 2030 (NDCs) and then continues with moderate climate action \r\nover time (Moderate Action, ModAct)."


id: bfbdf63aa3167574a15e1c3791ae80c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31015
content:
"emerged from the AR6 assessment: (i) the level of ambition of climate \r\npolicy, (ii) the different mitigation strategies, (iii) timing of mitigation \r\nactions, and (iv) the combination of climate policy with sustainable \r\ndevelopment policies. The IPs consist of narratives (Table  9) as \r\nwell as possible quantifications. The IPs are illustrative and denote \r\nimplications of different societal choices for the development of future \r\nemissions and associated transformations of main GHG-emitting \r\nsectors. For Chapter  3, for each of the IPs a  quantitative scenario \r\nwas selected from the AR6 scenario database to have particular \r\ncharacteristics and from diverse modelling frameworks (Table 10)."


id: a880f70ef8ea5ff484dd8d769d270971
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26854
content:
"The five IMPs are deep mitigation pathways with warming in the \r\n1.5degC-2degC range. The first IMP pursues gradual strengthening beyond \r\nNDC ambition levels until 2030 and then acts to likely limit warming \r\nto 2degC (Climate Category C3) (IMP-GS) (van Soest et al. 2021) \r\n(Chapter  3.5.3). Three others follow different mitigation strategies \r\nfocusing on low energy demand (IMP-LD) (Grubler et al. 2018), "


id: f7096c4bd43f60987e3cbf337a8fedae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 40832
content:
"In total, two reference pathways with warming above 2degC and five \r\nIllustrative Mitigation Pathways (IMPs) limiting warming in the \r\n1.5-2degC range were selected. The first reference pathway follows "


id: dd2b102ad43de0376c481c7e1981fc3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36176
content:
"Table 10 | Quantitative scenario selection to represent the two reference pathways and five Illustrative Mitigation Pathways warming to 1.5degC-2degC \r\nfor the assessment in Chapter 3. These quantitative representations of the IMPs have also been taken up by a few other chapters where suitable. The warming profile of \r\nIMP-Neg peaks around 2060 and declines to below 1.5degC (50% likelihood) shortly after 2100. While technically classified as a C3, it exhibits the characteristics of C2 high \r\novershoot pathways."


id: abdf35347ece0fd6a732042033455f3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 27478
content:
"renewable electricity (IMP-Ren) (Luderer et al. 2021) and large-scale \r\ndeployment of carbon dioxide removal measures resulting in net \r\nnegative CO2 emissions in the second half of the century (IMP-Neg). \r\nThe fifth IMP explicitly pursues a  broad sustainable development \r\nagenda and follows SSP1 socio-economic assumptions (IMP-SP) \r\n(Soergel et al. 2021). IMP-LD, IMP-Ren and IMP-SP limit warming to \r\n1.5degC (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (C1), while IMP-Neg has \r\na higher overshoot and only returns to nearly 1.5degC (50% chance) \r\nby 2100 (close to C2). In addition, two sensitivity cases for IMP-Ren \r\nand IMP-Neg are considered that limit warming to 2degC (>67%) (C3) \r\nrather than pursuing limiting warming to 1.5degC."


id: 236131bdf0943324948d60d4e81e6ab6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3424
content:
"(Annex III.I.8) calibrated to the WGI assessment. These three steps \r\nensure a  consistent and comparable assessment of the climate \r\nresponse across emission scenarios from the literature."


id: 18994843de535aafbf042444502c6a17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"The IMPs are used in different parts of the report. We just mention \r\nsome examples here. In Chapter  3, they are used to illustrate key \r\ndifferences between the mitigation strategies, for instance in terms \r\nof timing and sectoral action. In Chapter  6, Box  6.9 discusses \r\nthe  consequences for energy systems. Chapter  7 discusses some \r\nof the land-use consequences. In Chapter 8, the implications of the \r\nIMPs are further explored for urban systems where the elements of \r\nenergy, innovation, policy, land use and lifestyle interact (Chapter 8, \r\nSections 8.3 and 8.4). In Chapter 10, the consequences of different \r\nmitigation strategies for mobility are highlighted in different figures. \r\nThe IMPs are discussed further in Chapter 1, Section 1.3; Chapter 3, \r\nSection 3.2; and the respective sector chapters."


id: 992e0ca3d84e18a352f8b2a6a19e6013
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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"A transparent assessment pipeline has been set up across WGI and \r\nWGIII to ensure integration of the WGI assessment in the climate \r\nassessment of emission scenarios in WGIII. This pipeline consists of \r\na  step where emissions scenarios are harmonised with historical \r\nemissions (harmonisation), a  step in which species not reported \r\nby an IAM are filled in (infilling), and a step in which the emission \r\nevolutions are assessed with three climate model emulators "


id: f58398a6271bab8802c529b1b5acefec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 40558
content:
"Infilling missing species: Infilling ensures that scenarios include all \r\nrelevant anthropogenic emissions. This reduces the risk of a biased \r\nclimate assessment and is important because not all IAMs report \r\nall climatically active emission species. Infilling was only performed \r\nfor scenarios where models provided native reporting of energy "


id: 4e501d94f20a1840f2142aea431c00b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11051
content:
"year of peak warming, ocean heat uptake, atmospheric CO2, CH4 and \r\nN2O concentrations and effective radiative forcing from a range of \r\nspecies including CO2, CH4, N2O and aerosols for each emissions \r\nscenario, as well as an estimate of CO2 and non-CO2 contributions \r\nto the temperature increase. The climate emulator's GSAT projections \r\nare normalised to match the WGI Chapter 2 assessed total warming \r\nbetween 1850-1900 and 1995-2014 of 0.85degC."


id: d085b5876da244b29f2586cd22f01072
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 34036
content:
"Figure 5 | Comparison of non-CO2 warming relevant for the derivation of cumulative carbon budgets - and its sensitivity to (a) assumptions on historical \r\nemissions and (b) the set of investigated scenarios (right). Panel (c) shows how the relationship across scenarios between peak surface temperature and non-CO2\r\nwarming and peak cumulative CO2 is different for modelling frameworks. All dashed regression lines are at the 5th and 95th percentiles, solid lines are a regression at the median."


id: 498b557f7196ad644280c3265da16d6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 10167
content:
"All panels depict non-CO2 warming in relation to 2010-2019 at the time of peak cumulative CO2, using MAGICC7. Scenarios that reach net-zero CO2 this century are coloured, \r\nwith dots in grey indicating scenarios that do not reach net-zero CO2 but still remain below 2degC median peak warming relative to 2010-2019 levels in this century. The scenario \r\nset 'AR6 database' in (b) includes only scenarios of those model frameworks that are shown in panel (c)) which have a detailed land-use model and enough scenarios to imply \r\na relationship."


id: d796250783c51a5ddd4d565375170e4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Panel (a) The WGI remaining carbon budget takes into account the non-CO2 warming in dependence of peak surface temperatures via a regression line approach (lighter \r\nblue-coloured solid line). For the same scenario set, with historical emissions assumptions as used in Cross-Chapter Box 7.1 (darker blue-coloured solid line), a relationship is \r\nfound with a difference of approximately 0.05degC."


id: 58c5f61ff7aabc07c9a79c61e55cb33b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Panel (b) The WGIII database of scenarios tends to imply very similar non-CO2 warming at peak cumulative CO2 to the SR15 scenario database, especially around 1.5degC above \r\npre-industrial (0.43degC above 2010-2019 levels), though with slightly lower non-CO2 warming for higher peak temperatures."


id: 59e2780360a90419759ab9bb9a04aa45
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 13057
content:
"Panel (c) Regressions at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles indicate a model framework footprint affecting the relationship between peak warming and non-CO2 warming at \r\npeak cumulative CO2."


id: 8855404899ceb13eaeb497014442ecbe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21145
content:
"offset by the difference arising from using either the SR1.5 or AR6 \r\nscenario databases (see panel (b) in Figure 5)."


id: 13de414b4f1e880f8917a1c6a5db191b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 709
content:
"Estimates of the remaining carbon budget that take into account non\u0002CO2 uncertainty are not only dependent on historical assumptions, \r\nbut also on future non-CO2 scenario characteristics, which are \r\ndifferent across the various scenarios in the AR6 database. In panel \r\n(b) of Figure 5, we show how the SR15 database of scenarios, which \r\nwas used to inform the WGI remaining carbon budget, differs from \r\nthe larger set considered in the WGIII report (both using MAGICC7 \r\nusing input files in line with Nicholls et al. (2021)). Overall, there \r\nis limited difference in the covered range of non-CO2 warming at \r\ndifferent peak surface temperature levels, leading to no clear change \r\nin estimated carbon budgets compared to SR1.5 based on the full \r\nscenario database. However, as discussed in Cross-Working Group \r\nBox 1 in Chapter 3, and shown in panel (c) of Figure 5, mitigation \r\nstrategies expressed by both the IAM footprint and scenario design "


id: 435771e1f2332510005c5d504c13b63f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"WGII sets out common climate dimensions to help contextualise \r\nand facilitate consistent communication of impacts and synthesis \r\nacross WGII, as well as to facilitate WGI and WGII integration, with \r\nthe dimensions adopted when helpful and possible across WGII (AR6 \r\nWGII Cross-Chapter Box  1.1). 'Common climate dimensions' are \r\ndefined as common global warming levels (GWLs), time periods, and \r\nlevels of other variables as needed by WGII authors (see below for \r\na list of variables associated with these dimensions). Projected ranges \r\nfor associated climate variables were derived from the AR6 WGI \r\nreport and supporting resources and help contextualise and inform \r\nthe projection of potential future climate impacts and key risks. The \r\ninformation enables the mapping of climate variable levels to climate "


id: d7aa122b58998c3d53fb30c815452805
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 35254
content:
"and WGIII's global warming scenario classes are relatable but differ \r\nin several important ways. While GWLs represent temperature change \r\nthat occurs at some point in time, emissions scenarios in a temperature \r\nclass result in an evolving warming response over time. The emissions \r\nscenario warming also has a likelihood attached to the warming level \r\nat any point in time, that is, actual warming outcomes can be lower \r\nor higher than median warming projections within the range of the \r\nestimated uncertainty. Thus, multiple WGII results across GWLs will be \r\nrelevant to any particular WGIII emissions pathway, including at the \r\npeak temperature level."


id: dd2c88757cf20f8bb6d34719955473d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"[Note: The scenario numbers documented in this section refer to all \r\nscenarios that were submitted and not retracted by the literature \r\nacceptance deadline of 11 October 2021, and that fulfilled the \r\nrequirement of being supported by an eligible literature source. Not \r\nall those scenarios were used in the assessment, for example some \r\ndid not pass the vetting process as documented in II.3.1.]"


id: e244b1f0d1c7b107b27de98ab14c6320
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"As for previous IPCC reports of Working Group III, including the \r\nSpecial Report on Global Warming of 1.5degC (SR1.5) (Huppmann \r\net al. 2018; Rogelj et al. 2018a) and the Fifth Assessment Report \r\n(AR5) (Clarke et al. 2014; Krey et al. 2014), quantitative information \r\non mitigation pathways is collected in a  dedicated AR6 scenario \r\ndatabase8\r\n to underpin the assessment."


id: 93a445d384843788a883d796d99402ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23185
content:
"For facilitating integration with WGIII, GWLs need to be related to \r\nWGIII's classification of mitigation efforts by temperature outcome. \r\nWGII's Chapter 3 groups full century emissions projections resulting from \r\na large set of assessed mitigation scenarios into temperature classes \r\n(Chapter 3, Sections 3.2 and 3.3, Annex III.II.2.5.1, and Annex III.II.3.2.1). \r\nScenarios are classified by median peak global mean temperature \r\nincrease since 1850-1900 in the bands <2degC, 2degC-2.5degC, 2.5degC-3degC, \r\n3degC-4degC, and >4degC, with the range below 2degC broken out in greater \r\ndetail using estimates of warming levels at peak and in 2100 for which \r\nthe warming response is projected to be likely higher (33th percentile), \r\nas likely higher as lower (median), and likely lower (67th percentile) \r\n(Chapter 3, Section 3.2 and Annex III.II.3.2.1). WGII's common GWLs "


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vector_id: 7803
content:
"(global mitigation pathways), Table  18 (national and regional \r\nmitigation pathways) and Table 19 (sector transition pathways)."


id: 597a403163f2c22ea59f1284bf99afc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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"were open for a period of 22 months (September 2019 to July 2021), \r\nwith updates possible until October 2021 in line with the literature \r\nacceptance deadline. The data submission process included various \r\nquality control procedures to increase accuracy and consistency in \r\nreporting. Additional categorisation and processing of metadata over \r\nthe full database provided a wide range of indicators and categories \r\nthat were made centrally available to authors of the report to \r\nenhance consistency of the assessment, such as: climate, policy and \r\ntechnology categories; characteristics about emissions, energy, socio\u0002economics and carbon sequestration; metadata such as literature \r\nreferences, model documentation and related projects."


id: 27dde895b09ade7a91b0d26f9ee7a28a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4210
content:
"To facilitate the AR6 assessment, modelling teams were invited to \r\nsubmit their available emissions scenarios to a web-based database \r\nhosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis \r\n(IIASA).9\r\n The co-chairs of Working Group III as well as a  range of \r\nscientific institutions, including the Integrated Assessment Modelling \r\nConsortium (IAMC), University of Cape Town and the Centre \r\nInternational de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement \r\n(CIRED), supported the open call for scenarios which was subdivided \r\ninto four dedicated calls:"


id: 9f3638dea1d7d5c4d123a97eed47c41b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25233
content:
"A common data reporting template with a defined variable structure \r\nwas used and all teams were required to register and submit detailed \r\nmodel and scenario metadata. Scenarios were required to come from \r\na formal quantitative model and the scenarios must be published in \r\naccordance with IPCC literature requirements. The calls for scenarios "


id: 2ffe4904963f871d1e99f1fa07ddeb0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5703
content:
"Table  11 | Summary of the vetting criteria and ranges applied to the global scenarios for the climate assessment and preliminary screening for \r\nIllustrative Mitigation Pathways."


id: 14610c8d18e262c945259076188180f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 806
content:
"e total of scenarios as not all scenarios reported all variables. EIP stands for energy and industrial pro"


id: 415b89bb7bec6944b3a8e0b5eab70536
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8684
content:
"criteria for inclusion in the Chapter  3 climate assessment are \r\ndescribed in Annex III.II.3.2.1."


id: d049acec83c5053533ab6697936d0017
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34005
content:
"models report only at five- to 10-year intervals. 2020 as reported in \r\nmost scenarios collected in the database does not include the impact \r\nof the COVID-19 pandemic."


id: 110d75fddeac23e880c8122fa46306fe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 194
content:
"Almost three-quarters of submitted global scenarios passed the \r\nvetting. The remaining quarter comprised a  fraction of scenarios \r\nthat were rolled over from the SR1.5 database, and were no longer \r\nup to date with recent developments (excluding the COVID-19 \r\nshock). This included scenarios that started stringent mitigation \r\naction already in 2015. Other scenarios were expected to deviate \r\nfrom historical trends due to their diagnostic design. All historical \r\ncriteria for reported variables needed to be met in order to \r\npass the vetting."


id: 66c1df0f063dea4347d1454a405eba7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15339
content:
"Scenarios were submitted by both individual studies and model inter\u0002comparisons. The main model inter-comparisons submitting scenarios \r\nare shown in Table  12. Model inter-comparisons have a  shared \r\nexperimental design and assess research questions across different \r\nmodelling platforms to enable more structured and systematic \r\nassessments. The model comparison projects thus help to understand \r\nthe robustness of the insights."


id: e0ad4f5ab86fba91199a11231df9e80e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36785
content:
"The number of submitted scenarios varies considerably by study, \r\nfor example from 10 to almost 600 scenarios for the model inter\u0002comparison studies (Table 12). The number of scenarios also varies \r\nsubstantially by model (Table 15), highlighting the fact that the global \r\nscenario set collected in the AR6 scenario database is not a statistical \r\nsample (Section II.2.2)."


id: b57567b3050f7c5f6d2f6809cb6d3f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29153
content:
"2266 global scenarios were submitted to the scenario database that \r\nfulfilled a  minimum requirement of reporting at least one global \r\nemission or energy variable covering multiple sectors. 1686 global \r\nscenarios passed the vetting criteria described in Table  11. These \r\nscenarios were subsequently flagged as meeting minimum quality \r\nstandards for use in long-term scenarios assessment. Additional "


id: 767ec0b28f79682b67a59325efb9f5af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18066
content:
"Table 12 | Model inter-comparison studies that submitted global scenarios to the AR6 scenario database and for which at least one scenario passed the \r\nvetting. Scenario counts refer to all scenarios submitted by a study (in brackets), those that passed vetting (centre) and those that passed the vetting and received a climate \r\nassessment (left)."


id: e694f329d3cd233af004b8eecdddbc6a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37863
content:
"Table 13 | Single-model studies that submitted global scenarios to the AR6 scenario database and for which at least one scenario passed the vetting.\r\nScenario counts refer to all scenarios submitted by a  study (in brackets), those that passed vetting (centre) and those that passed the vetting and received a  climate \r\nassessment (left)."


id: 26ef0632c3789da960923be155da61f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4008
content:
"For inclusion in the climate assessment, in addition to passing the \r\nvetting (Section II.3.1), scenarios needed to run until the end of \r\ncentury and report as a  minimum CO2 (total and for energy and \r\nindustrial processes (EIP)), CH4 and N2O emissions to 2100. Where \r\nCO2 for AFOLU was not reported, the difference between total and \r\nEIP in 2020 must be greater than 500 MtCO2. Of the total 2266 \r\nglobal scenarios submitted, 1574 could be assessed in terms of \r\ntheir associated climate response, and 1202 of those passed the \r\nvetting process."


id: 16724bacbfab249636ffab843b5f4c3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1167
content:
"The global scenarios underpinning the assessment in Chapter 3 have \r\nbeen classified, to the degree possible, by their warming outcome. \r\nThe definition of the climate categories and the distribution of \r\nscenarios in the database across these categories is shown in \r\nTable 14 (Chapter 3, Section 3.2). The first four of these categories \r\ncorrespond to the ones used in the IPCC SR1.5 (Rogelj et al. 2018a) \r\nwhile the latter four have been added as part of the AR6 to capture \r\na broader range of warming outcomes."


id: 17fa909b585b47a52435462be352367f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1419
content:
"Table 14 | Classification of global pathways into warming levels using MAGICC (Chapter 3, Section 3.2)."


id: b7df199e0a38d83fe96ce8f84d64a773
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29569
content:
"Table 15 | Global scenarios by modelling framework and climate category. Table includes number of scenarios that passed all vetting checks and number of all \r\nscenarios that received a climate categorisation (in brackets, including those not passing vetting). Unique model versions have been grouped into modelling frameworks for \r\npresentation in this table.12 For a full list of unique model versions, please see the AR6 scenario database."


id: 11110c997062f740e0be6830e40142e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 195
content:
"Table 16 | Global scenarios by modelling framework that were not included in the climate assessment due to a time horizon shorter than 2100 or \r\na limited reporting of emissions species that did not include CO2 (total emissions or emissions from energy and industry), CH4 or N2O. Unique model \r\nversions have been grouped into modelling frameworks for presentation in this table.13 For a full list of unique model versions, please see the AR6 scenario database."


id: f7b1a8d2bb5dff1a519fe63ab15e3793
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40950
content:
"from 1.55degC in SR1.5 (1.52degC if reassessed with AR6 assessment \r\npipeline) to 1.58degC in AR6."


id: 2fc71acc0920d5b86e32697a0a8fda52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5663
content:
"Global scenarios were also classified based on their assumptions \r\nregarding climate policy. This information can be deduced from \r\nstudy protocols or the description of scenario designs in the \r\npublished literature. It has also been elicited as meta-information \r\nfor scenarios that were submitted to the AR6 database. There are \r\nmultiple purposes for a policy classification, including controlling for \r\nthe level of near-term action (Chapter 3, Section 3.5) and estimating \r\ncosts and other differences between two policy classes (Chapter 3, \r\nSection  3.6). Policy classes can be combined with climate classes, \r\nfor example to identify scenarios that follow the NDC until 2030 and \r\nlimit warming to 2degC (>67%)."


id: 6f8ba5d5e1a13c627f0372cad2895486
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16888
content:
"Comparison between SR1.5 and AR6 scenarios and associated \r\nclimate responses are shown in Figure 6, bottom panel. We show that \r\nchanges in the climate assessment pipeline are minor compared to \r\nclimate model uncertainty ranges in WGI (in the order of 0.1degC), but \r\nshow considerable variation due to different scenario characteristics. \r\nThe updated harmonisation and infilling together have a  small \r\ncooling effect compared to raw modelled emissions for the subset of \r\n95 scenarios in C1, C2, and C3 that also were assessed in SR15 (SR1.5 \r\nChapter 2, Table 2.4). This is due to both applying more advanced \r\nharmonisation methods consistent with the CMIP6 harmonisation \r\nused for WGI, and changing the historical harmonisation year from \r\n2010 to 2015. Together with the update in the climate emulator, \r\nwe find that the total AR6 assessment is remarkably consistent \r\nwith SR1.5, albeit slightly cooler (in the order of 0.05degC at peak \r\ntemperature, 0.1degC in 2100)."


id: de3d55009d83fc84892f55c20c59f64d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36359
content:
"Middle row: Characteristics of CO2 emissions pathways and the distribution of median peak temperature assessments for C1 and C3. From left to right: (i) \r\nChange in CO2 emissions levels and reductions in 2030, 2040 and 2050 between the AR6 (n=408), AR6 and SR1.5 overlap (n=60) and SR15 sets (n=91). (ii) distribution of \r\nscenarios with different median peak temperature scenario outcomes for C1 and C3 for AR6 and SR1.5 (both with AR6 temperature assessment as a solid line and with SR1.5 \r\ntemperature assessment as a dashed line, with median in yellow). (iii) Year of net-zero CO2 for C1 and C3 for AR6 and SR1.5. Within C3, 27 AR6 scenarios and 2 SR1.5 scenarios \r\nwith no net-zero year before 2100 have not been visualised. The violin area is proportional to the number of scenarios. Coloured lines indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles, \r\nwhile the dashed black line indicates the median."


id: 7edd34ac02f2427442f4cfa97e36fb66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19474
content:
"Bottom row: Change in median global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) between the AR6 and SR1.5 climate assessments for both 2100 values and \r\npeak temperature values during the 21st century. Positive values indicate that the temperature assessment is higher for the same scenario than the SR1.5 climate \r\nassessment. From left to right: (i) the effect of using MAGICCv7 calibrated to the WGI assessment compared with MAGICC6 as used in SR1.5; (ii) the effect of more advanced \r\nemissions harmonisation methods; (iii) the effect of more advanced emissions infilling methods; (iv) the total effect which is the sum of the three components. Boxplots show \r\nthe median and interquartile range, with the whiskers indicating the 95% range."


id: fa44643d79448a72978a68478f9f2a76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41402
content:
"Table  17 | Policy classification of global scenarios. If the total for a  class exceeds the sum of the subclasses, there are scenarios in the class that could not be \r\nassigned to a subclass."


id: e08f661b98c9f9a2b66f81cb97043408
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36759
content:
"from a  set of larger model intercomparison projects, JMIP/EMF35 \r\n(Sugiyama et al. 2020a) focusing on Japan, CD-LINKS (Roelfsema et al. \r\n2020; Schaeffer et al. 2020), COMMIT (van Soest et al. 2021), ENGAGE \r\n(Fujimori et al. 2021), and Paris Reinforce (Perdana et al. 2020; Nikas \r\net al. 2021) each covering several countries/regions from the following: \r\nAustralia, Brazil, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Russia, \r\nThailand, USA, Vietnam. The remaining pathways stem from individual \r\nmodelling studies that submitted scenarios to the database (Table 18)."


id: dd30334b36fd7dee4df131581d92fc18
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36183
content:
"National and regional pathways have been collected in the AR6 \r\nscenario database to support the Chapter 4 assessment. In total more \r\nthan 500 pathways for 24 countries/regions have been submitted to \r\nthe AR6 scenario database by integrated assessment, energy-economic \r\nand computable general equilibrium modelling research teams. This \r\nrepresents a  limited sample of the overall literature on mitigation \r\npathways at the national level. The majority of these pathways originate "


id: f368883c0f15eefd67411f5bd84d9ca5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40196
content:
"a\r\n Countries are abbreviated by their ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 letter codes. EU denotes the European Union.\r\nNotes: CP = current policies, NDC = implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions by 2025/30, Other = all other scenarios."


id: ae83cdf15bbf6909f35c7e18d17551e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27938
content:
"of perspectives, including long-term global and macro-region \r\ntrends for the sectors, sectoral analysis of the Illustrative Pathways, \r\nand comparison of the scenarios between full-economy IAMs and \r\nsector-specific models on shorter time horizons. These perspectives \r\nhave a  bi-directional utility - to understand how well IAMs are \r\nrepresenting sectoral trends from more granular models, and to \r\nposition sectoral models in the context of full-economy transitions to \r\nverify consistency with different climate outcomes."


id: 5c5eaebb102d5763a5ccd735104e9fd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13506
content:
"Sectoral transition pathways based on the AR6 scenario database \r\nare addressed in a number of Chapters, primarily Chapter 6 (Energy \r\nsystems), Chapter  7 (AFOLU), Chapter  9 (Buildings), Chapter  10 \r\n(Transport) and Chapter  11 (Industry). These analyses cover both \r\ncontributions from global IAMs and from sector-specific models \r\nwith regional or global coverage. The assessments cover a  variety "


id: 8c81226c91948d3301befb802bed96a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21904
content:
"Table 19 | Overview of how models and scenarios were used in sectoral chapters. All scenario and model counts listed in the table are contained in the AR6 \r\nscenario database, with the exception of Chapter 9 (Buildings), which supplemented its dataset with a large number of scenarios separately pulled from the sectoral literature. \r\nScenario counts represents unique model-scenario combinations in the database."


id: 7df5acac9a03b18476d12a14d5360d2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19343
content:
"Note 1: The number of models and scenarios reported in the table cannot be summed across chapters, as there is considerable overlap in selected model-scenario combinations \r\nacross chapters, depending on the filtering processes used for relevant analyses. Moreover, the numbers in the table - and certainly not their sum - are not intended to match \r\nthose reported for the global pathways assessed by Chapter 3 in Section II.3.2."


id: d4ee41d12a997ca0e04b2d6e13ac91a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34781
content:
"Note 2: Numbers shown in the model-count column are arrived at through the authors' best judgement. This has to do with the overlapping nature of unique model versions \r\n(within a given model family) as models evolve over time. In this case, model versions with substantial overlap were considered the same model, whereas model versions \r\nthat differ significantly were counted as unique. For example, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.0 and MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_1.1 are counted as the same model, while MESSAGEix\u0002GLOBIOM 1.0 and MESSAGE are counted as different. If instead counting all model versions uniquely, then the following counts would apply to each chapter: Energy systems \r\n(30/38/29), AFOLU (18/27/25/4), Buildings (80), Transport (50), Industry (32)."


id: 2a5216bcc7be5bb56be4623f06354afe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4668
content:
"Note 3: The Transport chapter figures in Chapter 10, Section 10.7, are produced from the final AR6 scenario database by the code accompanying this report. The set of model and \r\nscenario names appearing in each plot or figure of Section 10.7 varies, depending on whether particular submissions to the database included the specific variables appearing \r\nin that plot. Authors advise inspecting the data files accompanying each figure for the set of models/scenarios specific to that figure, or running the code against the final \r\ndatabase snapshot to reproduce the figures in question."


id: a8ffd6b40f361452035963285cc518e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26943
content:
"IPCC, 2022: Annex IV: Contributors to the IPCC Working Group III Sixth Assessment Report. In Climate Change 2022: \r\nMitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, \r\nS. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University \r\nPress, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.023."


id: 74dffa303585d6d86b4d5cb9bea611d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17798
content:
"ANDREW, Robbie M.\r\nCentre for International Climate \r\nand Environmental Research (CICERO)\r\nNorway"


id: 93b9e40ef4451a815b5fd8de6aa39860
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23197
content:
"CULLEN, Jonathan M. \r\nDepartment of Engineering, \r\nUniversity of Cambridge \r\nNew Zealand/United Kingdom"


id: 1dc68ab80a02009ce217b414eb8c660a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2425
content:
"FRANK, Robert H.\r\nClimate One/Cornell SC Johnson \r\nCollege of Business\r\nthe United States of America"


id: a466d4b599bc3345488ab1469e41362d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26130
content:
"FUGLESTVEDT, Jan S.\r\nCentre for International Climate \r\nand Environmental Research (CICERO)\r\nNorway"


id: 163609f0c9dc46efd2fc789dfd8d50f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1119
content:
"HAHMANN, Andrea N.\r\nDepartment of Wind Energy, \r\nTechnical University of Denmark\r\nChile/Denmark"


id: 72eb74332c9bfee18a05ebba2c0aa92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17465
content:
"GEELS, Frank W.\r\nManchester Institute of Innovation \r\nResearch, University of Manchester\r\nUnited Kingdom/the Netherlands"


id: 9bbbc15f30bf19a75b4bc77979ed36b6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24659
content:
"GERBER, James S.\r\nInstitute on the Environment, \r\nUniversity of Minnesota\r\nthe United States of America"


id: 629bcbef9c71acb2117e54f9e66bfb94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14635
content:
"JONCKHEERE, Inge G.C.\r\nFood and Agriculture Organisation \r\nof the United Nations (FAO)\r\nItaly/Belgium"


id: c78b1582c054e19fa2f2779ecf9685c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32417
content:
"REISCH, Lucia A.\r\nCambridge Judge Business School, \r\nUniversity of Cambridge\r\nUnited Kingdom"


id: 57571b49b64d4d3d8e7b49aba2c9761c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12625
content:
"SMITH, Stephen M.\r\nSmith School of Enterprise and the \r\nEnvironment, University of Oxford\r\nUnited Kingdom"


id: ff1c0a7128ebd27972f1f49dc5d002e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42286
content:
"SIMS, Ralph E.H.\r\nCentre for Energy Research, School \r\nof Engineering and Advanced Technology, \r\nMassey University\r\nNew Zealand"


id: f2193455971b7d0899586136cffe27e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39981
content:
"TOTH, Ferenc L.\r\nInternational Institute for Applied \r\nSystems Analysis (IIASA)\r\nAustria/Hungary"


id: 7b7288eac754c453b5e97cdd5cb6f100
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18922
content:
"TAN, Xianchun C.\r\nInstitute of Science and Development, \r\nChinese Academy of Sciences\r\nChina"


id: 6903933e407b4f089c1f3e1518fa142f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15746
content:
"TUBIELLO, Francesco N.\r\nFood and Agriculture Organisation \r\nof the United Nations (FAO)\r\nItaly"


id: 20970800246c0ad0da29b786e4351b10
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2959
content:
"IPCC, 2022: Annex V: Expert Reviewers of the IPCC Working Group III Sixth Assessment Report. In Climate Change 2022: \r\nMitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental \r\nPanel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, \r\nS. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University \r\nPress, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.024."


id: 173f3466c20243cc234bb3678c582ab6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1307
content:
"BALBUS, John M. \r\nNational Institute of Environmental \r\nHealth Sciences \r\nThe United States of America"


id: 64e20e222ea8b51b59a5cc0b69cbf200
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15021
content:
"BERGER, Mitchell\r\nU.S. Department of Health and \r\nHuman Services\r\nThe United States of America"


id: 921c9c09c169a568365deac9360ba2cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22920
content:
"HERNANDEZ, Michelle D.\r\nYOUNGO Cities Working Group \r\n(UNFCCC Official Youth Constituency)\r\nThe United States of America"


id: 4f4f3de3f15749928f83990740fe9709
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11237
content:
"ISLAM, Md. Sirajul\r\nDepartment of Civil and Environmental \r\nEngineering, North South University\r\nBangladesh"


id: 4ff7d49f7afbf49e67d5957346a4c7e8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11361
content:
"IPCC, 2022: Annex VI: Acronyms. In Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group \r\nIII to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, \r\nA. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. \r\nLisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: \r\n10.1017/9781009157926.025."


id: d7643fdd5efd6a2c56e6872d81963ffc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35197
content:
"This annex, which was not part of the approved outline of the Working Group III contribution \r\nto the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, provides a list of acronyms used in the report."


id: ccdc1ba23e166954d1c0835a68364974
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33373
content:
"IPCC, 2022: Index. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group \r\nIII to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, \r\nA. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. \r\nLisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: \r\n10.1017/9781009157926.026"


id: 53d2fac99128aef0551c24ef960ee6c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12017
content:
"Andres Alegria (Honduras), Robert  M. DeConto (USA), Andreas Fischlin (Switzerland), \r\nShengping  He (Norway/China), Miriam Jackson (Norway), Martin Kunsting (Germany), \r\nErwin  Lambert (Netherlands), Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre (Norway/France), Alexander Milner (UK), \r\nJess Melbourne-Thomas (Australia), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Maike Nicolai (Germany), \r\nHamish Pritchard (UK), Heidi Steltzer (USA), Nora M. Weyer (Germany) "


id: 31ae568b80767d16dfe9bb7fdb39de58
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5984
content:
"IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate \r\n[H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, \r\nM.  Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and \r\nNew York, NY, USA, pp. 3-35. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.001. "


id: 6697b15abcc3c1371e4de5be61850af2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15305
content:
"This Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere1 in a Changing Climate (SROCC) was prepared following an IPCC Panel \r\ndecision in 2016 to prepare three Special Reports during the Sixth Assessment Cycle2\r\n. By assessing new scientific literature3, \r\nthe SROCC4\r\n responds to government and observer organization proposals. The SROCC follows the other two Special Reports \r\non Global Warming of 1.5oC (SR1.5) and on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL)5\r\n and the Intergovernmental Science Policy \r\nPlatform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services."


id: e1b47cc93f2db340bdaaf196c0c29f9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36978
content:
"This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) compiles key findings of the report and is structured in three parts: SPM.A: Observed \r\nChanges and Impacts, SPM.B: Projected Changes and Risks, and SPM.C: Implementing Responses to Ocean and Cryosphere \r\nChange. To assist navigation of the SPM, icons indicate where content can be found. Confidence in key findings is reported \r\nusing IPCC calibrated language6\r\n and the underlying scientific basis for each key finding is indicated by references to sections \r\nof the underlying report. "


id: 776b9aef397919239547ad53a72d305d
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content:
"All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere. The global ocean covers 71% of the \r\nEarth surface and contains about 97% of the Earth's water. The cryosphere refers to frozen components of the Earth \r\nsystem1\r\n. Around 10% of Earth's land area is covered by glaciers or ice sheets. The ocean and cryosphere support \r\nunique habitats, and are interconnected with other components of the climate system through global exchange of \r\nwater, energy and carbon. The projected responses of the ocean and cryosphere to past and current human-induced \r\ngreenhouse gas emissions and ongoing global warming include climate feedbacks, changes over decades to millennia \r\nthat cannot be avoided, thresholds of abrupt change, and irreversibility. {Box 1.1, 1.2}"


id: abae20239a2cfe216fe749aaa50796a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27449
content:
"In addition to their role within the climate system, such as the uptake and redistribution of natural and anthropogenic \r\ncarbon dioxide (CO2) and heat, as well as ecosystem support, services provided to people by the ocean and/or \r\ncryosphere include food and water supply, renewable energy, and benefits for health and well-being, cultural values, \r\ntourism, trade, and transport. The state of the ocean and cryosphere interacts with each aspect of sustainability \r\nreflected in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). {1.1, 1.2, 1.5}"


id: 77e9d71db1e1fbe852285e7535779a58
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"Arctic June snow cover extent on land declined by 13.4 +-  5.4% per decade from 1967 \r\nto 2018, a  total loss of approximately  2.5  million km2\r\n, predominantly due to surface air temperature increase \r\n(high confidence). In nearly all high mountain areas, the depth, extent and duration of snow cover have declined over \r\nrecent decades, especially at lower elevation (high confidence). {2.2.2, 3.4.1, Figure SPM.1}"


id: d19aefdb557598d525d85d9973965310
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 34225
content:
"A.1.3 Permafrost temperatures have increased to record high levels (1980s-present) \r\n(very high confidence) including the recent increase by 0.29oC +- 0.12oC from 2007 to 2016 averaged across polar \r\nand high mountain regions globally. Arctic and boreal permafrost contain 1460-1600 Gt organic carbon, almost twice \r\nthe carbon in the atmosphere (medium confidence). There is medium evidence with low agreement whether northern \r\npermafrost regions are currently releasing additional net methane and CO2 due to thaw. Permafrost thaw and glacier \r\nretreat have decreased the stability of high mountain slopes (high confidence). {2.2.4, 2.3.2, 3.4.1, 3.4.3, Figure SPM.1} "


id: b0b4f36648b0055e671d34439d83b3a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 28317
content:
"Assessments of projected future changes in this report are based largely on CMIP514 climate model projections using \r\nRepresentative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RCPs are scenarios that include time series of  emissions \r\nand concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as \r\nland use / land cover. RCPs provide only one set of many possible scenarios that would lead to different levels of \r\nglobal warming. {Annex I: Glossary}"


id: fdb763b34e0dad07dde95198b771c460
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 41999
content:
"This report uses mainly RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in its assessment, reflecting the available literature. RCP2.6 represents \r\na low greenhouse gas emissions, high mitigation future, that in CMIP5 simulations gives a two in three chance of \r\nlimiting global warming to below 2oC by 210015. By contrast, RCP8.5 is a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario \r\nin the absence of policies to combat climate change, leading to continued and sustained growth in atmospheric \r\ngreenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to the total set of RCPs, RCP8.5 corresponds to the pathway with the \r\nhighest greenhouse gas emissions. The underlying chapters also reference other scenarios, including RCP4.5 and \r\nRCP6.0 that have intermediate levels of greenhouse gas emissions and result in intermediate levels of warming. \r\n{Annex I: Glossary, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1}"


id: 6a2808c51093f5150ce85f6ff6b7a10d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 15955
content:
"Table SPM.1 provides estimates of total warming since the pre-industrial period under four different RCPs for key \r\nassessment intervals used in SROCC. The warming from the 1850-1900 period until 1986-2005 has been assessed \r\nas 0.63oC (0.57oC to 0.69oC likely range) using observations of near-surface air temperature over the ocean and over \r\nland.16 Consistent with the approach in AR5, modelled future changes in global mean surface air temperature relative \r\nto 1986-2005 are added to this observed warming. {Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1}"


id: 512c0803ec1b3226eb86b6946e265f0c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 11567
content:
"Table SPM.1 | Projected global mean surface temperature change relative to 1850-1900 for two time periods under four RCPs15 {Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 1 in Chapter 1}"


id: e34c641687f48fa808fd25e63e2ae880
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 37288
content:
"A.2.6 Datasets spanning 1970-2010 show that the open ocean has lost oxygen by a very likely\r\nrange of 0.5-3.3% over the upper 1000 m, alongside a likely expansion of the volume of oxygen minimum zones \r\nby 3-8% (medium confidence). Oxygen loss is primarily due to increasing ocean stratification, changing ventilation \r\nand biogeochemistry (high confidence). {5.2.2, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2}"


id: 37063a2f4159104c69a884f8ae236fb3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6908
content:
"Sea level rise has accelerated (extremely likely) due to the combined increased ice loss from \r\nthe Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (very high confidence). Mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet over the period \r\n2007-2016 tripled relative to 1997-2006. For Greenland, mass loss doubled over the same period (likely, medium \r\nconfidence). {3.3.1, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM A.1.1}"


id: ae2e510c88b3c1da5c19c458e6da8f8
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vector_id: 27881
content:
".3.3 Acceleration of ice flow and retreat in Antarctica, which has the potential to lead to sea \r\nlevel rise of several metres within a few centuries, is observed in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica \r\nand in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica (very high confidence). These changes may be the onset of an irreversible23 ice \r\nsheet instability. Uncertainty related to the onset of ice sheet instability arises from limited observations, inadequate \r\nmodel representation of ice sheet processes, and limited understanding of the complex interactions between the \r\natmosphere, ocean and the ice sheet. {3.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, 4.2.3}"


id: a88645827f1a0d15a21ff4a67927bf8b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26861
content:
" Sea level rise is not globally uniform and varies regionally. Regional differences, within +-30% \r\nof the global mean sea level rise, result from land ice loss and variations in ocean warming and circulation. Differences \r\nfrom the global mean can be greater in areas of rapid vertical land movement including from local human activities \r\n(e.g. extraction of groundwater). (high confidence) {4.2.2, 5.2.2, 6.2.2, 6.3.1, 6.8.2, Figure SPM.2}"


id: c0687360fff73db00cd09e3c7d4731a6
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vector_id: 31151
content:
"A.3.5 Extreme wave heights, which contribute to extreme sea level events, coastal erosion and \r\nflooding, have increased in the Southern and North Atlantic Oceans by around 1.0 cm yr-1 and 0.8 cm yr-1 over the \r\nperiod 1985-2018 (medium confidence). Sea ice loss in the Arctic has also increased wave heights over the period \r\n1992-2014 (medium confidence). {4.2.2, 6.2, 6.3, 6.8, Box 6.1}"


id: 9eedb00ba14164d8478f92a04ca36a2d
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vector_id: 25189
content:
"A.3.6 Anthropogenic climate change has increased observed precipitation (medium confidence), \r\nwinds (low confidence), and extreme sea level events (high confidence) associated with some tropical cyclones, which \r\nhas increased intensity of multiple extreme events and associated cascading impacts (high confidence). Anthropogenic \r\nclimate change may have contributed to a poleward migration of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the western \r\nNorth Pacific in recent decades related to anthropogenically-forced tropical expansion (low confidence). There is \r\nemerging evidence for an increase in annual global proportion of Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in recent decades \r\n(low confidence). {6.2, Table 6.2, 6.3, 6.8, Box 6.1}"


id: 4beeeae3f1c5c204f35df69bf7bc12f2
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10623
content:
"A.4.2 Increased wildfire and abrupt permafrost thaw, as well as changes in Arctic and mountain \r\nhydrology have altered frequency and intensity of ecosystem disturbances (high confidence). This has included positive \r\nand negative impacts on vegetation and wildlife such as reindeer and salmon (high confidence). {2.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.3}"


id: 5848ae2567ecf5e8885fd387234a013c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12790
content:
"4.3 Across tundra, satellite observations show an overall greening, often indicative of increased \r\nplant productivity (high confidence). Some browning areas in tundra and boreal forest are indicative that productivity \r\nhas decreased (high confidence). These changes have negatively affected provisioning, regulating and cultural \r\necosystem services, with also some transient positive impacts for provisioning services, in both high mountains \r\n(medium confidence) and polar regions (high confidence). {2.3.1, 2.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.3, Annex I: Glossary}"


id: c30b94f6d530c6643aebd661e26f49b0
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content:
".1 Rates of poleward shifts in distributions across different marine species since the 1950s \r\nare 52  +-  33 km per decade and 29 +-  16 km per decade (very likely ranges) for organisms in the epipelagic \r\n(upper 200 m from sea surface) and seafloor ecosystems, respectively. The rate and direction of observed shifts in \r\ndistributions are shaped by local temperature, oxygen, and ocean currents across depth, latitudinal and longitudinal \r\ngradients (high confidence). Warming-induced species range expansions have led to altered ecosystem structure \r\nand functioning such as in the North Atlantic, Northeast Pacific and Arctic (medium confidence). {5.2.3, 5.3.2, 5.3.6, \r\nBox 3.4, Figure SPM.2}"


id: b1bb66f758793cefc6a5ab45a04d0c11
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vector_id: 28482
content:
"A.5.3 Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are amongst the most productive ocean \r\necosystems. Increasing ocean acidification and oxygen loss are negatively impacting two of the four major upwelling \r\nsystems: the California Current and Humboldt Current (high confidence). Ocean acidification and decrease in oxygen \r\nlevel in the California Current upwelling system have altered ecosystem structure, with direct negative impacts on \r\nbiomass production and species composition (medium confidence). {Box 5.3, Figure SPM.2}"


id: 7cd9fe4425dc48d7415356f001dc148c
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content:
"A.5.4 Ocean warming in the 20th century and beyond has contributed to an overall decrease in \r\nmaximum catch potential (medium confidence), compounding the impacts from overfishing for some fish stocks \r\n(high confidence). In many regions, declines in the abundance of fish and shellfish stocks due to direct and indirect \r\neffects of global warming and biogeochemical changes have already contributed to reduced fisheries catches \r\n(high confidence). In some areas, changing ocean conditions have contributed to the expansion of suitable habitat and/\r\nor increases in the abundance of some species (high confidence). These changes have been accompanied by changes \r\nin species composition of fisheries catches since the 1970s in many ecosystems (medium confidence). {3.2.3, 5.4.1, \r\nFigure SPM.2}"


id: 2bcbdc969ead5585179231ac8ee1d5cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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content:
"1 Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (Benguela Current, Canary Current, California Current, and Humboldt Current); {Box 5.3}"


id: 7fb61ae90e9c7c20c5735a8ae1e302c
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content:
"2 including Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Hengduan Shan, and Tien Shan; 3\r\n tropical Andes, Mexico, eastern Africa, and Indonesia; 4 includes Finland, Norway, and Sweden; 5 includes adjacent areas in Yukon Territory and British Columbia, Canada; 6 Migration refers to an \r\n increase or decrease in net migration, not to beneficial/adverse value."


id: 39335892dc76fd3fc6fb908201f22dcb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 7274
content:
"Figure SPM.2 (continued): Migration refers to an increase or decrease in net migration, not to beneficial/adverse value. Impacts on tourism refer \r\nto the operating conditions for the tourism sector. Cultural services include cultural identity, sense of home, and spiritual, intrinsic and aesthetic \r\nvalues, as well as contributions from glacier archaeology. The underlying information is given for land regions in tables SM2.6, SM2.7, SM2.8, SM3.8, \r\nSM3.9, and SM3.10, and for ocean regions in tables SM5.10, SM5.11, SM3.8, SM3.9, and SM3.10. {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.3.3, 2.3.4, 2.3.5, 2.3.6, 2.3.7, \r\nFigure 2.1, 3.2.1, 3.2.3, 3.2.4, 3.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, Box 3.4, 4.2.2, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, 5.3.3, 5.4, 5.6, Figure 5.24, Box 5.3}"


id: cd48ca56c61ef70ea102d478dd4e667
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content:
".7.1 Food and water security have been negatively impacted by changes in snow cover, lake and \r\nriver ice, and permafrost in many Arctic regions (high confidence). These changes have disrupted access to, and food \r\navailability within, herding, hunting, fishing, and gathering areas, harming the livelihoods and cultural identity of \r\nArctic residents including Indigenous populations (high confidence). Glacier retreat and snow cover changes have \r\ncontributed to localized declines in agricultural yields in some high mountain regions, including Hindu Kush Himalaya \r\nand the tropical Andes (medium confidence). {2.3.1, 2.3.7, Box 2.4, 3.4.1, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, Figure SPM.2}"


id: b9caff3134aa3d91d78279efe7b8431f
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".7.2 In the Arctic, negative impacts of cryosphere change on human health have included \r\nincreased risk of food- and waterborne diseases, malnutrition, injury, and mental health challenges especially among \r\nIndigenous peoples (high confidence). In some high mountain areas, water quality has been affected by contaminants, \r\nparticularly mercury, released from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost (medium confidence). Health-related \r\nadaptation efforts in the Arctic range from local to international in scale, and successes have been underpinned by \r\nIndigenous knowledge (high confidence). {1.8, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 3.4.3}"


id: 4bed80eb5d5b425ac965602eb3811778
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content:
".7.3 Arctic residents, especially Indigenous peoples, have adjusted the timing of activities to respond \r\nto changes in seasonality and safety of land, ice, and snow travel conditions. Municipalities and industry are beginning \r\nto address infrastructure failures associated with flooding and thawing permafrost and some coastal communities \r\nhave planned for relocation (high confidence). Limited funding, skills, capacity, and institutional support to engage \r\nmeaningfully in planning processes have challenged adaptation (high confidence). {3.5.2, 3.5.4, Cross-Chapter Box 9}"


id: 39967aecfb17811d9d3a2ac935a7b72
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vector_id: 7342
content:
"A.7.4 Summertime Arctic ship-based transportation (including tourism) increased over the past two \r\ndecades concurrent with sea ice reductions (high confidence). This has implications for global trade and economies \r\nlinked to traditional shipping corridors, and poses risks to Arctic marine ecosystems and coastal communities \r\n(high confidence), such as from invasive species and local pollution. {3.2.1, 3.2.4, 3.5.4, 5.4.2, Figure SPM.2}"


id: 97b4d9af74d02044acbfe47114618239
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"5 In past decades, exposure of people and infrastructure to natural hazards has increased due \r\nto growing population, tourism and socioeconomic development (high confidence). Some disasters have been linked \r\nto changes in the cryosphere, for example in the Andes, high mountain Asia, Caucasus and European Alps (medium \r\nconfidence). {2.3.2, Figure SPM.2}"


id: 1d2eb910eebffde89f40be601dc623a1
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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"A.7.6 Changes in snow and glaciers have changed the amount and seasonality of runoff and \r\nwater resources in snow dominated and glacier-fed river basins (very high confidence). Hydropower facilities have \r\nexperienced changes in seasonality and both increases and decreases in water input from high mountain areas, for "


id: b29b304415f256f9fd2a8c6d8f486db6
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"example, in central Europe, Iceland, Western USA/Canada, and tropical Andes (medium confidence). However, there \r\nis only limited evidence of resulting impacts on operations and energy production. {SPM B.1.4, 2.3.1}"


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".7 High mountain aesthetic and cultural aspects have been negatively impacted by glacier \r\nand snow cover decline (e.g. in the Himalaya, East Africa, the tropical Andes) (medium confidence). Tourism and \r\nrecreation, including ski and glacier tourism, hiking, and mountaineering, have also been negatively impacted in \r\nmany mountain regions (medium confidence). In some places, artificial snowmaking has reduced negative impacts \r\non ski tourism (medium confidence). {2.3.5, 2.3.6, Figure SPM.2}"


id: 7f61c894da04f78ade0a647a9de68669
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"A.9.1 Attribution of current coastal impacts on people to sea level rise remains difficult in \r\nmost locations since impacts were exacerbated by human-induced non-climatic drivers, such as land subsidence \r\n(e.g., groundwater extraction), pollution, habitat degradation, reef and sand mining (high confidence). {4.3.2, 4.3.3}"


id: 329e035cd653524f2c171a55e691e6a7
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vector_id: 6165
content:
"A.9.2 Coastal protection through hard measures, such as dikes, seawalls, and surge barriers, is \r\nwidespread in many coastal cities and deltas. Ecosystem-based and hybrid approaches combining ecosystems and \r\nbuilt infrastructure are becoming more popular worldwide. Coastal advance, which refers to the creation of new \r\nland by building seawards (e.g., land reclamation), has a long history in most areas where there are dense coastal "


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content:
"populations and a shortage of land. Coastal retreat, which refers to the removal of human occupation of coastal areas, \r\nis also observed, but is generally restricted to small human communities or occurs to create coastal wetland habitat. \r\nThe effectiveness of the responses to sea level rise are assessed in Figure SPM.5. {3.5.3, 4.3.3, 4.4.2, 6.3.3, 6.9.1, \r\nCross-Chapter Box 9} "


id: bcfc043592ba2a76c17e5b46e0fda720
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content:
"In 2100, the Greenland Ice Sheet's projected contribution to GMSL rise is 0.07 m (0.04-0.12 m, \r\nlikely range) under RCP2.6, and 0.15 m (0.08-0.27 m, likely range) under RCP8.5. In 2100, the Antarctic Ice Sheet \r\nis projected to contribute 0.04 m (0.01-0.11 m, likely range) under RCP2.6, and 0.12 m (0.03-0.28 m, likely range) \r\nunder RCP8.5. The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently contributing more to sea level rise than the Antarctic Ice Sheet \r\n(high confidence), but Antarctica could become a larger contributor by the end of the 21st century as a consequence \r\nof rapid retreat (low confidence). Beyond 2100, increasing divergence between Greenland and Antarctica's relative \r\ncontributions to GMSL rise under RCP8.5 has important consequences for the pace of relative sea level rise in the \r\nNorthern Hemisphere. {3.3.1, 4.2.3, 4.2.5, 4.3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, Figure SPM.1}"


id: f87e35b1a311342cc5507a4e85299aac
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content:
"Arctic autumn and spring snow cover are projected to decrease by  5-10%, relative to \r\n1986-2005, in the near-term (2031-2050), followed by no further losses under RCP2.6, but an additional 15-25% \r\nloss by the end of century under RCP8.5 (high confidence). In high mountain areas, projected decreases in low \r\nelevation mean winter snow depth, compared to 1986-2005, are likely 10-40% by 2031-2050, regardless of \r\nemissions scenario (high confidence). For 2081-2100, this projected decrease is likely 10-40%  for RCP2.6 and \r\n50-90% for RCP8.5. {2.2.2, 3.3.2, 3.4.2, Figure SPM.1}"


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vector_id: 5363
content:
"B.1.4 Widespread permafrost thaw is projected for this century (very high confidence) and beyond. \r\nBy 2100, projected near-surface (within 3-4 m) permafrost area shows a decrease of 24 +- 16% (likely range) for \r\nRCP2.6 and 69 +- 20% (likely range) for RCP8.5. The RCP8.5 scenario leads to the cumulative release of tens to \r\nhundreds of billions of tons (GtC) of permafrost carbon as CO2\r\n26 and methane to the atmosphere by 2100 with \r\nthe potential to exacerbate climate change (medium confidence). Lower emissions scenarios dampen the response \r\nof carbon emissions from the permafrost region (high confidence). Methane contributes a  small fraction of the \r\ntotal additional carbon release but is significant because of its higher warming potential. Increased plant growth is \r\nprojected to replenish soil carbon in part, but will not match carbon releases over the long term (medium confidence). \r\n{2.2.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, Figure SPM.1, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1}"


id: 6b2b49a7f17423e9687b225751afbf3f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16152
content:
"5 In many high mountain areas, glacier retreat and permafrost thaw are projected to further \r\ndecrease the stability of slopes, and the number and area of glacier lakes will continue to increase (high confidence). \r\nFloods due to glacier lake outburst or rain-on-snow, landslides and snow avalanches, are projected to occur also in \r\nnew locations or different seasons (high confidence). {2.3.2}"


id: 568e6b76808f10fbc735ebec2a19fe93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12482
content:
"B.1.6 River runoff in snow-dominated or glacier-fed high mountain basins is projected to change \r\nregardless of emissions scenario (very high confidence), with increases in average winter runoff (high confidence)\r\nand earlier spring peaks (very high confidence). In all emissions scenarios, average annual and summer runoff from \r\nglaciers are projected to peak at or before the end of the 21st century (high confidence), e.g., around mid-century in \r\nHigh Mountain Asia, followed by a decline in glacier runoff. In regions with little glacier cover (e.g., tropical Andes, \r\nEuropean Alps) most glaciers have already passed this peak (high confidence). Projected declines in glacier runoff by \r\n2100 (RCP8.5) can reduce basin runoff by 10% or more in at least one month of the melt season in several large river \r\nbasins, especially in High Mountain Asia during the dry season (low confidence). {2.3.1}"


id: b5325c342b2e5eb67e9deb7d9773b5e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29117
content:
"B.1.7 Arctic sea ice loss is projected to continue through mid-century, with differences thereafter \r\ndepending on the magnitude of global warming: for stabilised global warming of 1.5oC the annual probability of \r\na sea ice-free September by the end of century is approximately 1%, which rises to 10-35% for stabilised global \r\nwarming of 2oC (high confidence). There is low confidence in projections for Antarctic sea ice. {3.2.2, Figure SPM.1}"


id: cc8f688eef4c6ca9587d372dfc3b5a31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33311
content:
"B.2.1 The ocean will continue to warm throughout the 21st century (virtually certain). By 2100, \r\nthe top 2000 m  of the ocean are projected to take up  5-7 times more heat under RCP8.5 (or  2-4 times more \r\nunder RCP2.6) than the observed accumulated ocean heat uptake since 1970 (very likely). The annual mean density \r\nstratification19 of the top 200 m, averaged between 60oS and 60oN, is projected to increase by 12-30% for RCP8.5 \r\nand 1-9% for RCP2.6, for 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 (very likely), inhibiting vertical nutrient, carbon and \r\noxygen fluxes. {5.2.2, Figure SPM.1}"


id: 46f8eb123e8d2311dc0593ff0700959d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9689
content:
"B.2.6 Extreme El Nino and La Nina events are projected to likely increase in frequency in the 21st \r\ncentury and to likely intensify existing hazards, with drier or wetter responses in several regions across the globe. \r\nExtreme El Nino events are projected to occur about as twice as often under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the 21st \r\ncentury when compared to the 20th century (medium confidence). Projections indicate that extreme Indian Ocean \r\nDipole events also increase in frequency (low confidence). {6.5, Figures 6.5, 6.6}"


id: 231f15215407d0a39b54b61722865845
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3375
content:
" The AMOC is projected to weaken in the 21st century under all RCPs (very likely), although \r\na collapse is very unlikely (medium confidence). Based on CMIP5 projections, by 2300, an AMOC collapse is about \r\nas likely as not for high emissions scenarios and very unlikely for lower ones (medium confidence). Any substantial \r\nweakening of the AMOC is projected to cause a  decrease in marine productivity in the North Atlantic (medium \r\nconfidence), more storms in Northern Europe (medium confidence), less Sahelian summer rainfall (high confidence) \r\nand South Asian summer rainfall (medium confidence), a reduced number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic (medium \r\nconfidence), and an increase in regional sea level along the northeast coast of North America (medium confidence). \r\nSuch changes would be in addition to the global warming signal. {6.7, Figures 6.8-6.10}"


id: b7ab6db94238ba670321b74240c149f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29529
content:
"B.3.1 The global mean sea level (GMSL) rise under RCP2.6 is projected to be 0.39 m (0.26-0.53 m, \r\nlikely range) for the period 2081-2100, and 0.43 m (0.29-0.59 m, likely range) in 2100 with respect to 1986-2005. For \r\nRCP8.5, the corresponding GMSL rise is 0.71 m (0.51-0.92 m, likely range) for 2081-2100 and 0.84 m (0.61-1.10 m, \r\nlikely range) in 2100. Mean sea level rise projections are higher by 0.1 m compared to AR5 under RCP8.5 in 2100, and \r\nthe likely range extends beyond 1 m in 2100 due to a larger projected ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (medium \r\nconfidence). The uncertainty at the end of the century is mainly determined by the ice sheets, especially in Antarctica. \r\n{4.2.3, Figures SPM.1, SPM.5}"


id: 8322e938f4728e0b16bca6f5e2e37520
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20195
content:
"3.2 Sea level projections show regional differences around GMSL. Processes not driven by \r\nrecent climate change, such as local subsidence caused by natural processes and human activities, are important to \r\nrelative sea level changes at the coast (high confidence). While the relative importance of climate-driven sea level \r\nrise is projected to increase over time, local processes need to be considered for projections and impacts of sea level \r\n(high confidence). {SPM A.3.4, 4.2.1, 4.2.2, Figure SPM.5}"


id: bd268a6fa633f7fb8ab0c8354d937d17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30530
content:
"3 The rate of global mean sea level rise is projected to reach 15 mm yr-1 (10-20 mm yr-1, likely \r\nrange) under RCP8.5 in 2100, and to exceed several centimetres per year in the 22nd century. Under RCP2.6, the rate \r\nis projected to reach 4 mm yr-1 (2-6 mm yr-1, likely range) in 2100. Model studies indicate multi-meter rise in sea \r\nlevel by 2300 (2.3-5.4 m for RCP8.5 and 0.6-1.07 m under RCP2.6) (low confidence), indicating the importance of \r\nreduced emissions for limiting sea level rise. Processes controlling the timing of future ice-shelf loss and the extent of \r\nice sheet instabilities could increase Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise to values substantially higher than the \r\nlikely range on century and longer time-scales (low confidence). Considering the consequences of sea level rise that \r\na collapse of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet entails, this high impact risk merits attention. {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in \r\nChapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3, 4.1, 4.2.3}"


id: 4826d1dd4f53eaac9a548c4722851d99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9909
content:
"3.4 Global mean sea level rise will cause the frequency of extreme sea level events at most \r\nlocations to increase. Local sea levels that historically occurred once per century (historical centennial events) are \r\nprojected to occur at least annually at most locations by 2100 under all RCP scenarios (high confidence). Many \r\nlow-lying megacities and small islands (including SIDS) are projected to experience historical centennial events at \r\nleast annually by 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The year when the historical centennial event becomes \r\nan annual event in the mid-latitudes occurs soonest in RCP8.5, next in RCP4.5 and latest in RCP2.6. The increasing \r\nfrequency of high water levels can have severe impacts in many locations depending on the level of exposure (high \r\nconfidence). {4.2.3, 6.3, Figures SPM.4, SPM.5}"


id: 368e112ee497fd8ba9ed5afb5f919ded
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6830
content:
"On Arctic land, a loss of globally unique biodiversity is projected as limited refugia exist for \r\nsome High-Arctic species and hence they are outcompeted by more temperate species (medium confidence). Woody \r\nshrubs and trees are projected to expand to cover 24-52% of Arctic tundra by 2050 (medium confidence). The boreal \r\nforest is projected to expand at its northern edge, while diminishing at its southern edge where it is replaced by lower \r\nbiomass woodland/shrublands (medium confidence). {3.4.3, Box 3.4}"


id: 5f988279fbc65b555b6440bbf191c2fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14127
content:
"Permafrost thaw and decrease in snow will affect Arctic and mountain hydrology and wildfire, \r\nwith impacts on vegetation and wildlife (medium confidence). About 20% of Arctic land permafrost is vulnerable to \r\nabrupt permafrost thaw and ground subsidence, which is projected to increase small lake area by over 50% by 2100 \r\nfor RCP8.5 (medium confidence). Even as the overall regional water cycle is projected to intensify, including increased \r\nprecipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge to the Arctic Ocean, decreases in snow and permafrost may \r\nlead to soil drying with consequences for ecosystem productivity and disturbances (medium confidence). Wildfire is \r\nprojected to increase for the rest of this century across most tundra and boreal regions, and also in some mountain \r\nregions, while interactions between climate and shifting vegetation will influence future fire intensity and frequency \r\n(medium confidence). {2.3.3, 3.4.1, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, SPM B.1}"


id: 9ac05d319f0d35e4d0907be20b34bfa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24467
content:
".3 Warming, ocean acidification, reduced seasonal sea ice extent and continued loss of \r\nmulti-year sea ice are projected to impact polar marine ecosystems through direct and indirect effects on habitats, \r\npopulations and their viability (medium confidence). The geographical range of Arctic marine species, including \r\nmarine mammals, birds and fish is projected to contract, while the range of some sub-Arctic fish communities is \r\nprojected to expand, further increasing pressure on high-Arctic species (medium confidence). In the Southern Ocean, \r\nthe habitat of Antarctic krill, a key prey species for penguins, seals and whales, is projected to contract southwards \r\nunder both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (medium confidence). {3.2.2, 3.2.3, 5.2.3}"


id: 1add3502abde7f1e4be0ca5894cd2a86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1924
content:
"B.5.4 Ocean warming, oxygen loss, acidification and a decrease in flux of organic carbon from the \r\nsurface to the deep ocean are projected to harm habitat-forming cold-water corals, which support high biodiversity, \r\npartly through decreased calcification, increased dissolution of skeletons, and bioerosion (medium confidence). \r\nVulnerability and risks are highest where and when temperature and oxygen conditions both reach values outside \r\nspecies' tolerance ranges (medium confidence). {Box 5.2, Figure SPM.3}"


id: 9088243dffad3d35be4329d87f45d4f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22635
content:
"6.1 All coastal ecosystems assessed are projected to face increasing risk level, from moderate to \r\nhigh risk under RCP2.6 to high to very high risk under RCP8.5 by 2100. Intertidal rocky shore ecosystems are projected \r\nto be at very high risk by 2100 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence) due to exposure to warming, especially during \r\nmarine heatwaves, as well as to acidification, sea level rise, loss of calcifying species and biodiversity (high confidence). \r\nOcean acidification challenges these ecosystems and further limits their habitat suitability (medium confidence) by \r\ninhibiting recovery through reduced calcification and enhanced bioerosion. The decline of kelp forests is projected to \r\ncontinue in temperate regions due to warming, particularly under the projected intensification of marine heatwaves, \r\nwith high risk of local extinctions under RCP8.5 (medium confidence). {5.3, 5.3.5, 5.3.6, 5.3.7, 6.4.2, Figure SPM.3}"


id: d4d21fb7d2709c62ca9d32961ce2c03c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34759
content:
".6.2 Seagrass meadows and saltmarshes and associated carbon stores are at moderate risk \r\nat 1.5oC global warming and increase with further warming (medium confidence). Globally, 20-90% of current coastal \r\nwetlands are projected to be lost by 2100, depending on projected sea level rise, regional differences and wetland \r\ntypes, especially where vertical growth is already constrained by reduced sediment supply and landward migration is \r\nconstrained by steep topography or human modification of shorelines (high confidence). {4.3.3, 5.3.2, Figure SPM.3, \r\nSPM A.6.1}"


id: fc8c298bee5800f0d268143235357642
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41798
content:
"B.6.3 Ocean warming, sea level rise and tidal changes are projected to expand salinization and \r\nhypoxia in estuaries (high confidence) with high risks for some biota leading to migration, reduced survival, and local \r\nextinction under high emission scenarios (medium confidence). These impacts are projected to be more pronounced \r\nin more vulnerable eutrophic and shallow estuaries with low tidal range in temperate and high latitude regions \r\n(medium confidence). {5.2.2, 5.3.1, Figure SPM.3}"


id: ccfbf7e31c3d296181de23618b0aa03d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33407
content:
"B.6.4 Almost all warm-water coral reefs are projected to suffer significant losses of area and \r\nlocal extinctions, even if global warming is limited to 1.5oC (high confidence). The species composition and diversity \r\nof remaining reef communities is projected to differ from present-day reefs (very high confidence). {5.3.4,  5.4.1, \r\nFigure SPM.3}"


id: 41dfe25e7d053c8b5b41ccc0d4bacf64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8785
content:
"Permafrost thaw-induced subsidence of the land surface is projected to impact overlying \r\nurban and rural communication and transportation infrastructure in the Arctic and in high mountain areas (medium \r\nconfidence). The majority of Arctic infrastructure is located in regions where permafrost thaw is projected to intensify \r\nby mid-century. Retrofitting and redesigning infrastructure has the potential to halve the costs arising from permafrost \r\nthaw and related climate-change impacts by 2100 (medium confidence). {2.3.4, 3.4.1, 3.4.3}"


id: a4318cbc0375732abef8f5e55f2583f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26079
content:
"7.3 High mountain tourism, recreation and cultural assets are projected to be negatively affected \r\nby future cryospheric changes (high confidence). Current snowmaking technologies are projected to be less effective \r\nin reducing risks to ski tourism in a warmer climate in most parts of Europe, North America, and Japan, in particular \r\nat 2oC global warming and beyond (high confidence). {2.3.5, 2.3.6}"


id: 318ab46fcb0a44cdb05dca9a4728f962
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5961
content:
".3 Global warming compromises seafood safety (medium confidence) through human \r\nexposure to elevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and mercury in marine plants and animals \r\n(medium confidence), increasing prevalence of waterborne Vibrio pathogens (medium confidence), and heightened \r\nlikelihood of harmful algal blooms (medium confidence). These risks are projected to be particularly large for human \r\ncommunities with high consumption of seafood, including coastal Indigenous communities (medium confidence), \r\nand for economic sectors such as fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism (high confidence). {3.4.3, 5.4.2, Box 5.3}"


id: b7b44ca39a2e90031244d60fe9567b4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29536
content:
"B.8.4 Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their services put key cultural dimensions \r\nof lives and livelihoods at risk (medium confidence), including through shifts in the distribution or abundance of \r\nharvested species and diminished access to fishing or hunting areas. This includes potentially rapid and irreversible \r\nloss of culture and local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, and negative impacts on traditional diets and food \r\nsecurity, aesthetic aspects, and marine recreational activities (medium confidence). {3.4.3, 3.5.3, 5.4.2}"


id: 7c3f150f7514c7f2646d9def23b0fbcf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19071
content:
"Due to projected global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, local sea levels that historically occurred once per century \r\n(historical centennial events, HCEs) are projected to become at least annual events at most locations during the \r\n21st century. The height of a HCE varies widely, and depending on the level of exposure can already cause severe \r\nimpacts. Impacts can continue to increase with rising frequency of HCEs."


id: 7f81e91bd0a86156ba1db9ff1a80eefe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19579
content:
"C.1.3 There are a broad range of identified barriers and limits for adaptation to climate change \r\nin ecosystems (high confidence). Limitations include the space that ecosystems require, non-climatic drivers and \r\nhuman impacts that need to be addressed as part of the adaptation response, the lowering of adaptive capacity \r\nof ecosystems because of climate change, and the slower ecosystem recovery rates relative to the recurrence of \r\nclimate impacts, availability of technology, knowledge and financial support, and existing governance arrangements \r\n(medium confidence). {3.5.4, 5.5.2} "


id: 5a3cdb382caed3f6c22ebb90fd7e155b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13125
content:
" Strengthening precautionary approaches, such as rebuilding overexploited or depleted \r\nfisheries, and responsiveness of existing fisheries management strategies reduces negative climate change impacts \r\non fisheries, with benefits for regional economies and livelihoods (medium confidence). Fisheries management that \r\nregularly assesses and updates measures over time, informed by assessments of future ecosystem trends, reduces risks \r\nfor fisheries (medium confidence) but has limited ability to address ecosystem change. {3.2.4, 3.5.2, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, \r\nFigure SPM.5}"


id: 5eef51de0b0da3262a84b63ccd6837e4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13998
content:
"C.2.4 Restoration of vegetated coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass \r\nmeadows (coastal 'blue carbon' ecosystems), could provide climate change mitigation through increased carbon \r\nuptake and storage of around 0.5% of current global emissions annually (medium confidence). Improved protection \r\nand management can reduce carbon emissions from these ecosystems. Together, these actions also have multiple \r\nother benefits, such as providing storm protection, improving water quality, and benefiting biodiversity and fisheries \r\n(high confidence). Improving the quantification of carbon storage and greenhouse gas fluxes of these coastal \r\necosystems will reduce current uncertainties around measurement, reporting and verification (high confidence). \r\n{Box 4.3, 5.4, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Annex I: Glossary}"


id: d094092d0347be181db4f2a495c3826a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34042
content:
"C.2.5 Ocean renewable energy can support climate change mitigation, and can comprise energy \r\nextraction from offshore winds, tides, waves, thermal and salinity gradient and algal biofuels. The emerging demand \r\nfor alternative energy sources is expected to generate economic opportunities for the ocean renewable energy sector \r\n(high confidence), although their potential may also be affected by climate change (low confidence). {5.4.2, 5.5.1, \r\nFigure 5.23}"


id: b879276b9c9f529871c0e39bf53edcf7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29665
content:
"2 Some coastal accommodation measures, such as early warning systems and flood-proofing of \r\nbuildings, are often both low cost and highly cost-efficient under current sea levels (high confidence). Under projected \r\nsea level rise and increase in coastal hazards some of these measures become less effective unless combined with \r\nother measures (high confidence). All types of options, including protection, accommodation, ecosystem-based \r\nadaptation, coastal advance and planned relocation, if alternative localities are available, can play important roles in \r\nsuch integrated responses (high confidence). Where the community affected is small, or in the aftermath of a disaster, \r\nreducing risk by coastal planned relocations is worth considering if safe alternative localities are available. Such \r\nplanned relocation can be socially, culturally, financially and politically constrained (very high confidence). {4.4.2, \r\nBox 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SPM B.3}"


id: 5b8a50f1f24b8df54c36ae3bd8305673
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13350
content:
"3.3 Responses to sea level rise and associated risk reduction present society with profound \r\ngovernance challenges, resulting from the uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of future sea level rise, vexing \r\ntrade-offs between societal goals (e.g., safety, conservation, economic development, intra- and inter-generational \r\nequity), limited resources, and conflicting interests and values among diverse stakeholders (high confidence). \r\nThese challenges can be eased using locally appropriate combinations of decision analysis, land-use planning, \r\npublic participation, diverse knowledge systems and conflict resolution approaches that are adjusted over time as \r\ncircumstances change (high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9}"


id: 9ff7309f12478b39417e3c324a6829ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25358
content:
".4 Despite the large uncertainties about the magnitude and rate of post 2050 sea level rise, many \r\ncoastal decisions with time horizons of decades to over a century are being made now (e.g., critical infrastructure, \r\ncoastal protection works, city planning) and can be improved by taking relative sea level rise into account, favouring \r\nflexible responses (i.e., those that can be adapted over time) supported by monitoring systems for early warning \r\nsignals, periodically adjusting decisions (i.e., adaptive decision making), using robust decision-making approaches, \r\nexpert judgement, scenario-building, and multiple knowledge systems (high confidence). The sea level rise range \r\nthat needs to be considered for planning and implementing coastal responses depends on the risk tolerance of "


id: d6dac314d7fea6f112f804022fed0d23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
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vector_id: 35110
content:
"stakeholders. Stakeholders with higher risk tolerance (e.g., those planning for investments that can be very easily \r\nadapted to unforeseen conditions) often prefer to use the likely range of projections, while stakeholders with a lower \r\nrisk tolerance (e.g., those deciding on critical infrastructure) also consider global and local mean sea level above \r\nthe upper end of the likely range (globally 1.1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100) and from methods characterised by lower \r\nconfidence such as from expert elicitation. {1.8.1, 1.9.2, 4.2.3, 4.4.4, Figure 4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, \r\nFigure SPM.5, SPM B.3}"


id: 513c80a71ca163b3b6df0f49c1162ee8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11572
content:
"In this assessment, the term response refers to in situ responses to sea level rise (hard engineered coastal defenses, restoration of degraded ecosystems, \r\nsubsidence limitation) and planned relocation. Planned relocation in this assessment refers to proactive managed retreat or resettlement only at a local scale, and \r\naccording to the specificities of a particular context (e.g., in urban atoll islands: within the island, in a neighbouring island or in artificially raised islands). Forced \r\ndisplacement and international migration are not considered in this assessment."


id: 1464029496593c4c474b35ec6454e75d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 811
content:
"The illustrative geographies are based on a limited number of case studies well covered by the peer reviewed literature. The realisation of risk will depend on \r\ncontext specifities."


id: 5da33bc6c88a58c99dcb61a3a0539c05
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13770
content:
"Sea level rise scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are not considered in this risk assessment because the literature underpinning this assessment is only available for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5."


id: 5490d2fb39c9a61c89e2b5d2ceecde76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12158
content:
"C.4.2 Intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across scales, \r\njurisdictions, sectors, policy domains and planning horizons can enable effective responses to changes in the ocean, \r\ncryosphere and to sea level rise (high confidence). Regional cooperation, including treaties and conventions, can \r\nsupport adaptation action; however, the extent to which responding to impacts and losses arising from changes "


id: 2be7323d5d262292fdc19f7010837ed9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4972
content:
"in the ocean and cryosphere is enabled through regional policy frameworks is currently limited (high confidence). \r\nInstitutional arrangements that provide strong multiscale linkages with local and Indigenous communities benefit \r\nadaptation (high confidence). Coordination and complementarity between national and transboundary regional \r\npolicies can support efforts to address risks to resource security and management, such as water and fisheries \r\n(medium confidence). {2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Box 2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9.2}"


id: 879fa4cdb4c4369b2c0b998504b72ebd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21016
content:
"C.4.3 Experience to date - for example, in responding to sea level rise, water-related risks in some \r\nhigh mountains, and climate change risks in the Arctic - also reveal the enabling influence of taking a long-term \r\nperspective when making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of context-specific risks \r\nbeyond 2050 (high confidence), and building governance capabilities to tackle complex risks (medium confidence). \r\n{2.3.1, 3.5.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, 5.5.2, 6.9, Figure SPM.5}"


id: a812077f57988caf88f5bb370df26e47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"C.4.5 Context-specific monitoring and forecasting of changes in the ocean and the cryosphere \r\ninforms adaptation planning and implementation, and facilitates robust decisions on trade-offs between short- and \r\nlong-term gains (medium confidence). Sustained long-term monitoring, sharing of data, information and knowledge \r\nand improved context-specific forecasts, including early warning systems to predict more extreme El Nino/La Nina \r\nevents, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, help to manage negative impacts from ocean changes such as losses \r\nin fisheries, and adverse impacts on human health, food security, agriculture, coral reefs, aquaculture, wildfire, tourism, \r\nconservation, drought and flood (high confidence). {2.4, 2.5, 3.5.2, 4.4.4, 5.5.2, 6.3.1, 6.3.3, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.9}"


id: c1d1208e4f661ce32a0027c4dc3e4429
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31400
content:
"C.4.6 Prioritising measures to address social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to promote \r\nfair and just climate resilience and sustainable development (high confidence), and can be helped by creating safe \r\ncommunity settings for meaningful public participation, deliberation and conflict resolution (medium confidence). \r\n{Box 2.4, 4.4.4, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, Figure SPM.5}"


id: eea8951cb1e0fa6358fbb7b1a023650c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39367
content:
"C.4.7 This assessment of the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate reveals the benefits of \r\nambitious mitigation and effective adaptation for sustainable development and, conversely, the escalating costs and \r\nrisks of delayed action. The potential to chart Climate Resilient Development Pathways varies within and among \r\nocean, high mountain and polar land regions. Realising this potential depends on transformative change. This \r\nhighlights the urgency of prioritising timely, ambitious, coordinated and enduring action (very high confidence). \r\n{1.1, 1.8, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, 2.3, 2.4, 3.5, 4.2.1, 4.2.2, 4.3.4, 4.4, Table 4.9, 5.5, 6.9, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 9, Figure SPM.5}"


id: 9688df3f9e07025770faa739c6ad3be4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23686
content:
"Hans-Otto Portner (Germany), Debra C. Roberts (South Africa), Valerie Masson-Delmotte \r\n(France), Panmao Zhai (China), Elvira Poloczanska (United Kingdom/Australia), Katja Mintenbeck \r\n(Germany), Melinda Tignor (USA), Andres Alegria (Honduras), Maike Nicolai (Germany), \r\nAndrew Okem (Nigeria), Jan Petzold (Germany), Bard Rama (Kosovo), Nora M. Weyer (Germany) "


id: 2dfb4485e3bb394c79614ba1026bbee2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5367
content:
"Jake Rice (Canada), Baruch Rinkevich (Israel), Evelia Rivera-Arriaga (Mexico), Debra C. Roberts \r\n(South Africa), Karina von Schuckmann (France), Ted Schuur (USA), Zita Sebesvari (Hungary), \r\nMartin Sommerkorn (Norway/Germany), Konrad Steffen (Switzerland), Heidi Steltzer \r\n(USA), Toshio Suga (Japan), Raden Dwi Susanto (Indonesia), Michael Sutherland (Trinidad \r\nand Tobago), Didier Swingedouw (France), Alessandro Tagliabue (United Kingdom), Lourdes \r\nTibig (Philippines), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands), Phillip Williamson (United Kingdom), \r\nRong Yu (China), Panmao Zhai (China)"


id: 7b338dfddadb80cece84b00b993af425
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18871
content:
"IPCC, 2019: Technical Summary [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, \r\nM. Tignor, A. Alegria, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In: IPCC Special Report on the \r\nOcean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.- O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, \r\nE. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge \r\nUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 39-69. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.002"


id: 327e2fcaf08f2c84e17b9aec03a82956
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6138
content:
"This Technical Summary of the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and \r\nCryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) consists of the Executive \r\nSummaries of all chapters (1-6) of the Special Report, the Executive \r\nSummary from the Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on Low-Lying \r\nIslands and Coasts, and supporting figures drawn from the chapters \r\nand the Summary for Policymakers. The Technical Summary follows \r\nthe structure of the Report (Table TS.1)."


id: 4e73c592bb067810e4b9d5d00c4073c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11080
content:
"SROCC uses IPCC calibrated language1\r\n for the communication of \r\nconfidence in the assessment process (see Chapter 1 and references \r\ntherein). This calibrated language is designed to consistently \r\nevaluate and communicate uncertainties that arise from incomplete \r\nknowledge due to a lack of information, or from disagreement about \r\nwhat is known or even knowable. The IPCC calibrated language \r\nuses qualitative expressions of confidence based on the robustness \r\nof evidence for a finding, and (where possible) uses quantitative \r\nexpressions to describe the likelihood of a finding (Figure TS.1). "


id: 2dd0e7200e99f5e9374b0277ab47871c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5341
content:
"References to chapter sections, boxes, cross-chapter boxes as well as \r\nto figures and tables are provided in curly brackets {} at the end of \r\neach statement below. "


id: 68cfdd5e2a34413d628ef8767730c4de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15702
content:
"Table TS.1 | Structure of the Technical Summary (TS) and Chapters included in the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)."


id: 8655b1bdaed6e8e944c8aebea69dc0ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20797
content:
"that are fundamentally linked to the ocean and cryosphere and \r\nthe services they provide (high confidence). Progress on achieving the \r\nSDGs can contribute to reducing the exposure or vulnerabilities of \r\npeople and communities to the risks of ocean and cryosphere change \r\n(medium confidence). {1.1}"


id: c798e61309beee6ce6a3271891d3a2db
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32427
content:
"All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the \r\nocean and cryosphere. The fundamental roles of the ocean and \r\ncryosphere in the Earth system include the uptake and redistribution \r\nof anthropogenic carbon dioxide and heat by the ocean, as well as \r\ntheir crucial involvement of in the hydrological cycle. The cryosphere \r\nalso amplifies climate changes through snow, ice and permafrost \r\nfeedbacks. Services provided to people by the ocean and/or \r\ncryosphere include food and freshwater, renewable energy,  health \r\nand wellbeing, cultural values, trade and transport. {1.1, 1.2, 1.5, \r\nFigure TS.2}"


id: 9e3ca8a989aa0db7933784d5b6315ad0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25068
content:
"Ocean and cryosphere changes are pervasive and observed \r\nfrom high mountains, to the polar regions, to coasts, and into \r\nthe deep ocean. AR5 assessed that the ocean is warming (0 to \r\n700 m: virtually certain; 700 to 2000 m: likely), sea level is rising (high \r\nconfidence), and ocean acidity is increasing (high confidence). Most \r\nglaciers are shrinking (high confidence), the Greenland and Antarctic \r\nice sheets are losing mass (high confidence), sea ice extent in the \r\nArctic is decreasing (very high confidence), Northern Hemisphere "


id: 773c407b5b22de686f6bc213bd8527f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18184
content:
"Sustainable development is at risk from emerging and \r\nintensifying ocean and cryosphere changes. Ocean and \r\ncryosphere changes interact with each of the United Nations \r\nSustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Progress on climate action \r\n(SDG 13) would reduce risks to aspects of sustainable development "


id: 9c3f75b243afcabda446937135b6ac2c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24743
content:
"Figure TS.2 | Schematic illustration of key components and changes of the ocean and cryosphere, and their linkages in the Earth system through the global exchange of \r\nheat, water, and carbon (Section 1.2). Climate change-related effects (increase/decrease indicated by arrows in pictograms) in the ocean include sea level rise, increasing \r\nocean heat content and marine heat waves, increasing ocean oxygen loss and ocean acidification (Section 1.4.1). Changes in the cryosphere include the decline of Arctic sea \r\nice extent, Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass loss, glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, and decreasing snow cover extent (Section 1.4.2). For illustration purposes, a few \r\nexamples of where humans directly interact with ocean and cryosphere are shown (for more details see Box 1.1)."


id: 49d0fe26a3eb0d7ef7d83e153574c646
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10223
content:
"Historical changes (observed and modelled) and projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for key indicators"


id: aa0c9000b9d72e606f445bc25254b5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27143
content:
"snow cover is decreasing (very high confidence), and permafrost \r\ntemperatures are increasing (high confidence). Improvements \r\nsince AR5 in observation systems, techniques, reconstructions and \r\nmodel developments, have advanced scientific characterisation and \r\nunderstanding of ocean and cryosphere change, including in previously \r\nidentified areas of concern such as ice sheets and Atlantic Meridional \r\nOverturning Circulation (AMOC). {1.1, 1.4, 1.8.1, Figure TS.3}"


id: f4de789424b7f19ec03d65ae9cdb9795
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40448
content:
"The scale and cross-boundary dimensions of changes in the \r\nocean and cryosphere challenge the ability of communities, \r\ncultures and nations to respond effectively within existing \r\ngovernance frameworks (high confidence). Profound economic \r\nand institutional transformations are needed if climate-resilient \r\ndevelopment is to be achieved (high confidence). Changes in \r\nthe ocean and cryosphere, the ecosystem services that they provide, "


id: e96f71703ad2dcb43c2186698be37a13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38425
content:
"Table TS.2 | Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and key ocean variables for the near-term (2031-2050) and end-of-century (2081-2100) relative to \r\nthe recent past (1986-2005) reference period from CMIP5. Small differences in the projections given here compared with AR5 reflect differences in the number of models \r\navailable now compared to at the time of the AR5 assessment (for more details see Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). "


id: ebd5ed4014eb4ac56cd5254f9a095d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38858
content:
"a\r\n Calculated following the same procedure as the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The 5-95% model range of global mean surface air temperature across CMIP5 projections \r\nwas assessed in AR5 as the likely range, after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models."


id: 912d4c2bb1e0f0e37d4be27266903e9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22748
content:
"b\r\n The 5-95% model range for global mean sea surface temperature, surface pH and dissolved oxygen (100-600 m) as referred to in the SROCC assessment as the very likely\r\nrange (see also Chapter 1, Section 1.9.2, Figure 1.4)."


id: 1a3ece0e344410cc994808a41777ca88
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1813
content:
"the drivers of those changes, and the risks to marine, coastal, polar \r\nand mountain ecosystems, occur on spatial and temporal scales that \r\nmay not align within existing governance structures and practices \r\n(medium confidence). This report highlights the requirements \r\nfor transformative governance, international and transboundary \r\ncooperation, and greater empowerment of local communities in \r\nthe governance of the ocean, coasts, and cryosphere in a changing \r\nclimate. {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter \r\nBox 3 in Chapter 1}"


id: c2ee5411e418001df5f609a25ff3d98a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31570
content:
"Long-term sustained observations and continued modelling \r\nare critical for detecting, understanding and predicting ocean \r\nand cryosphere change, providing the knowledge to inform \r\nrisk assessments and adaptation planning (high confidence). \r\nKnowledge gaps exist in scientific knowledge for important regions, \r\nparameters and processes of ocean and cryosphere change, including \r\nfor physically plausible, high impact changes like high end sea level \r\nrise scenarios that would be costly if realised without effective \r\nadaptation planning and even then may exceed limits to adaptation. \r\nMeans such as expert judgement, scenario building, and invoking \r\nmultiple lines of evidence enable comprehensive risk assessments \r\neven in cases of uncertain future ocean and cryosphere changes. \r\n{1.8.1, 1.9.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1}"


id: 88140cbbc3c66c0ae8c154b5d93d192c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21089
content:
"Changes in snow and glaciers have changed the amount and \r\nseasonality of runoff in snow-dominated and glacier-fed river \r\nbasins (very high confidence) with local impacts on water \r\nresources and agriculture (medium confidence). Winter runoff \r\nhas increased in recent decades due to more precipitation falling as \r\nrain (high confidence). In some glacier-fed rivers, summer and annual \r\nrunoff have increased due to intensified glacier melt, but decreased \r\nwhere glacier melt water has lessened as glacier area shrinks. \r\nDecreases were observed especially in regions dominated by small \r\nglaciers, such as the European Alps (medium confidence). Glacier \r\nretreat and snow cover changes have contributed to localized declines \r\nin agricultural yields in some high mountain regions, including the \r\nHindu Kush Himalaya and the tropical Andes (medium confidence). "


id: fb395f9dee72b4ae623269f465fa010e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41571
content:
"Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and for 2081-2100, \r\nlikely by 10-40 % for RCP2.6 and by 50-90% for RCP8.5. Projected \r\nglacier mass reductions between 2015-2100 are likely 22-44% for \r\nRCP2.6 and 37-57% for RCP8.5. In regions with mostly smaller \r\nglaciers and relatively little ice cover (e.g., European Alps, Pyrenees, \r\nCaucasus, North Asia, Scandinavia, tropical Andes, Mexico, eastern \r\nAfrica and Indonesia), glaciers will lose more than 80% of their \r\ncurrent mass by 2100 under RCP8.5 (medium confidence), and \r\nmany glaciers will disappear regardless emission scenario (very high \r\nconfidence). Permafrost thaw and degradation will increase during \r\nthe 21st century (very high confidence) but quantitative projections \r\nare scarce. {2.2.2, 2.2.3, 2.2.4}"


id: b23665a16beebe0cda789b917affd693
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28585
content:
"There is limited evidence of impacts on operation and productivity \r\nof hydropower facilities resulting from changes in seasonality and \r\nboth increases and decreases in water input, for example, in the \r\nEuropean Alps, Iceland, Western Canada and USA, and the tropical \r\nAndes. {2.3.1}"


id: 9607b888b2186c14fd1f8fa23b260ffd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23593
content:
"Most types of natural hazards are projected to change in \r\nfrequency, magnitude and areas affected as the cryosphere \r\ncontinues to decline (high confidence). Glacier retreat and \r\npermafrost thaw are projected to decrease the stability of mountain \r\nslopes and increase the number and area of glacier lakes (high \r\nconfidence). Resulting landslides and floods, and cascading events, \r\nwill also emerge where there is no record of previous events (high \r\nconfidence). Snow avalanches are projected to decline in number \r\nand runout distance at lower elevation, and avalanches involving wet \r\nsnow even in winter will occur more frequently (medium confidence). \r\nRain-on-snow floods will occur earlier in spring and later in autumn, \r\nand be more frequent at higher elevations and less frequent at lower \r\nelevations (high confidence). {2.3.2, 2.3.3}"


id: 3aab73ef78708b592046c9f8565efe94
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7526
content:
"Current trends in cryosphere-related changes in high mountain \r\necosystems are expected to continue and impacts to intensify \r\n(very high confidence). While high mountains will provide new and \r\ngreater habitat area, including refugia for lowland species, both range \r\nexpansion and shrinkage are projected, and at high elevations this \r\nwill lead to population declines (high confidence). The latter increases \r\nthe risk of local extinctions, in particular for freshwater cold-adapted \r\nspecies (medium confidence). Without genetic plasticity and/or \r\nbehavioural shifts, cryospheric changes will continue to negatively \r\nimpact endemic and native species, such as some coldwater fish "


id: 4fd408ac3b00a8b9e6e6fc4165b4b250
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11337
content:
"Snow cover, glaciers and permafrost are projected to continue \r\nto decline in almost all regions throughout the 21st century \r\n(high confidence). Compared to 1986-2005, low elevation snow \r\ndepth will likely decrease by 10-40% for 2031-2050, regardless of "


id: d6c82b74a65b98ccc28d661174bfb5e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35097
content:
"(e.g.,  trout) and species whose traits directly depend on snow \r\n(e.g., snowshoe hares) or many large mammals (medium confidence). \r\nThe survival of such species will depend on appropriate conservation \r\nand adaptation measures (medium confidence). Many projected \r\necological changes will alter ecosystem services (high confidence), \r\naffecting ecological disturbances (e.g., fire, rock fall, slope erosion) \r\nwith considerable impacts on people (medium confidence). {2.3.3}"


id: d3093a901076805f0273f01e23e96c13
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
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vector_id: 34472
content:
"negative implications for some ecosystems. Success in implementing \r\nsuch management options depends on the participation of relevant \r\nstakeholders, including affected communities, diverse knowledge \r\nand adequate tools for monitoring and projecting future conditions, \r\nand financial and institutional resources to support planning and \r\nimplementation (medium confidence). {2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4}"


id: 6cf07290003b4511d2b1ee99a6075a9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16442
content:
"Effective governance is a key enabler for reducing disaster \r\nrisk, considering relevant exposure factors such as planning, \r\nzoning, and urbanisation pressures, as well as vulnerability \r\nfactors such as poverty, which can challenge efforts towards \r\nresilience and sustainable development for communities \r\n(medium confidence). Reducing losses to disasters depend on \r\nintegrated and coordinated approaches to account for the hazards \r\nconcerned, the degree of exposure, and existing vulnerabilities. \r\nDiverse knowledge that includes community and multi-stakeholder \r\nexperience with past impacts complements scientific knowledge to \r\nanticipate future risks. {Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1, 2.3.2, 2.4} "


id: f7cd68b1586a92a5b4a8c35a907ce9ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40972
content:
"The already committed and unavoidable climate change \r\naffecting all cryosphere elements, irrespective of the emission \r\nscenario, points to integrated adaptation planning to support \r\nand enhance water availability, access, and management \r\n(medium confidence). Integrated management approaches \r\nfor water across all scales, in particular for energy,  agriculture, \r\necosystems and drinking water supply, can be effective at dealing \r\nwith impacts from changes in the cryosphere. These approaches also \r\noffer opportunities to support social-ecological systems, through the \r\ndevelopment and optimisation of storage and the release of water from \r\nreservoirs (medium confidence), while being cognisant of potential "


id: 70d2c1fccedc20b4955cfcc914dc9caf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17114
content:
"2 includes Finland, Norway, and Sweden; 3 includes Hindu \r\nKush, Karakoram, Hengduan Shan, and Tien Shan; 4\r\nincludes \r\nadjacent areas in Yukon Territory and British Columbia, \r\nCanada; 5\r\ntropical Andes, Mexico, eastern Africa, and \r\nIndonesia; 6\r\nMigration refers to an increase or decrease in net \r\nmigration, not to beneficial/adverse value."


id: 6a001067e71b1d0f0434f00094503fe7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15915
content:
"2 includes Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Hengduan Shan, and Tien Shan; 3\r\n tropical Andes, Mexico, eastern Africa, and Indonesia; 4 includes Finland, Norway, and Sweden; 5 includes adjacent areas in Yukon Territory and British Columbia, Canada; 6 Migration refers to an \r\n increase or decrease in net migration, not to beneficial/adverse value."


id: d930d646077a81b98fa08754e952f64c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35506
content:
"Arctic surface air temperature has likely increased by more \r\nthan double the global average over the last two decades, with \r\nfeedbacks from loss of sea ice and snow cover contributing to \r\nthe amplified warming. For each of the five years since the IPCC \r\n5th Asesssment Report (AR5) (2014-2018), Arctic annual surface \r\nair temperature exceeded that of any year since 1900. During the \r\nwinters (January to March) of 2016 and 2018, surface temperatures \r\nin the central Arctic were 6oC above the 1981-2010 average, \r\ncontributing to unprecedented regional sea ice absence. These trends \r\nand extremes provide medium evidence with high agreement of the \r\ncontemporary coupled atmosphere-cryosphere system moving well \r\noutside the 20th century envelope. {Box 3.1, 3.2.1.1}"


id: 684a52860b2000e6a41b09ea3e9cc075
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15616
content:
"are unprecedented in at least 1000 years (medium confidence).\r\nArctic sea ice has thinned, concurrent with a  shift to younger ice: \r\nsince 1979, the areal proportion of thick ice at least 5 years old has \r\ndeclined by approximately 90% (very high confidence). Approximately \r\nhalf the observed sea ice loss is attributable to increased atmospheric \r\ngreenhouse gas concentrations(medium confidence). Changes in Arctic \r\nsea ice have potential to influence mid-latitude weather on timescales \r\nof weeks to months (low to medium confidence). {3.2.1.1, Box 3.2}"


id: a0c0c2212e54314f30c7cfae581758eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25486
content:
"It is very likely that Antarctic sea ice cover exhibits no \r\nsignificant trend over the period of satellite observations \r\n(1979-2018). While the drivers of historical decadal variability are \r\nknown with medium confidence, there is currently limited evidence \r\nand low agreement concerning causes of the strong recent decrease \r\n(2016-2018), and low confidence in the ability of current-generation \r\nclimate models to reproduce and explain the observations. {3.2.1.1}"


id: 7737f66227e8241db344164c801c1532
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18181
content:
"Both polar oceans have continued to warm in recent years, \r\nwith the Southern Ocean being disproportionately and \r\nincreasingly important in global ocean heat increase (high \r\nconfidence). Over large sectors of the seasonally ice-free Arctic, \r\nsummer upper mixed layer temperatures increased at around 0.5oC \r\nper decade during 1982-2017, primarily associated with increased \r\nabsorbed solar radiation accompanying sea ice loss, and the inflow \r\nof ocean heat from lower latitude increased since the 2000s (high \r\nconfidence). During 1970-2017, the Southern Ocean south of 30oS \r\naccounted for 35-43% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper \r\n2000 m  (high confidence), despite occupying ~25% of the global \r\nocean area. In recent years (2005-2017), the Southern Ocean was \r\nresponsible for an increased proportion of the global ocean heat \r\nincrease (45-62%) (high confidence). {3.2.1.2.1, Figure TS.5}"


id: 9244c1f4f1b3a3e317fa541ddfc1ee8e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22956
content:
"Shipping activity during the Arctic summer increased over the \r\npast two decades in regions for which there is information, \r\nconcurrent with reductions in sea ice extent (high confidence). \r\nTransit times across the Northern Sea Route have shortened due \r\nto lighter ice conditions, and while long-term, pan-Arctic datasets \r\nare incomplete, the distance travelled by ships in Arctic Canada \r\nnearly tripled during 1990-2015 (high confidence). Greater levels \r\nof Arctic ship-based transportation and tourism have socioeconomic \r\nand political implications for global trade, northern nations, and \r\neconomies linked to traditional shipping corridors; they will also \r\nexacerbate region specific risks for marine ecosystems and coastal \r\ncommunities if further action to develop and adequately implement \r\nregulations does not keep pace with increased shipping (high \r\nconfidence). {3.2.1.1, 3.2.4.2, 3.2.4.3, 3.4.3.3.2, 3.5.2.7}"


id: e2279a93964fa7e491888a45bb50eb0d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37068
content:
"Climate-induced changes in seasonal sea ice extent and \r\nthickness and ocean stratification are altering marine primary \r\nproduction (high confidence), with impacts on ecosystems \r\n(medium confidence). Changes in the timing, duration and intensity \r\nof primary production have occurred in both polar oceans, with \r\nmarked regional or local variability (high confidence). In the Antarctic, \r\nsuch changes have been associated with locally-rapid environmental \r\nchange, including retreating glaciers and sea ice change (medium \r\nconfidence). In the Arctic, changes in primary production have \r\naffected regional species composition, spatial distribution, and \r\nabundance of many marine species, impacting ecosystem structure \r\n(medium confidence). {3.2.1, 3.2.3, 3.2.4} "


id: b246773a046c888757d5f58053b0c6e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28602
content:
"Permafrost temperatures have increased to record high levels \r\n(very high confidence), but there is medium evidence and low \r\nagreement that this warming is currently causing northern \r\npermafrost regions to release additional methane and \r\ncarbon dioxide. During 2007-2016, continuous-zone permafrost \r\ntemperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic increased by 0.39 +- 0.15oC \r\nand 0.37 +- 0.10oC respectively. Arctic and boreal permafrost region \r\nsoils contain 1460-1600 Gt organic carbon (medium confidence). \r\nChanges in permafrost influence global climate through emissions of \r\ncarbon dioxide and methane released from the microbial breakdown \r\nof organic carbon, or the release of trapped methane. {3.4.1, 3.4.3}"


id: bc836b38cc00d23cb417cd396f76d0d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30412
content:
"In both polar regions, climate-induced changes in ocean \r\nand sea ice, together with human introduction of non-native \r\nspecies, have expanded the range of temperate species and \r\ncontracted the range of polar fish and ice-associated species \r\n(high confidence). Commercially and ecologically important fish \r\nstocks like Atlantic cod, haddock and mackerel have expanded their \r\nspatial distributions northwards many hundreds of kilometres, and \r\nincreased their abundance. In some Arctic areas, such expansions have \r\naffected the whole fish community, leading to higher competition and \r\npredation on smaller sized fish species, while some commercial fisheries \r\nhave benefited. There has been a southward shift in the distribution of \r\nAntarctic krill in the South Atlantic, the main area for the krill fishery \r\n(medium confidence). These changes are altering biodiversity in polar \r\nmarine ecosystems (medium confidence). {3.2.3, Box 3.4}"


id: 9653192bf418e1eabb76fd6602ba4dd6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23643
content:
"Climate-related changes to Arctic hydrology, wildfire and \r\nabrupt thaw are occurring (high confidence), with impacts \r\non vegetation and water and food security. Snow and lake \r\nice cover has declined, with June snow extent decreasing 13.4 \r\n+-  5.4% per decade (1967-2018) (high confidence). Runoff into \r\nthe Arctic Ocean increased for Eurasian and North American rivers \r\nby 3.3 +- 1.6% and 2.0 +- 1.8% respectively (1976-2017; medium \r\nconfidence). Area burned and frequency of fires (including extreme \r\nfires) are unprecedented over the last 10,000 years (high confidence). \r\nThere has been an overall greening of the tundra biome, but also \r\nbrowning in some regions of tundra and boreal forest, and changes \r\nin the abundance and distribution of animals including reindeer and \r\nsalmon (high confidence). Together, these impact access to (and food "


id: 7c180809255d48be4ff5b19d394ac507
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19041
content:
"Arctic sea ice extent continues to decline in all months of \r\nthe year (very high confidence); the strongest reductions in \r\nSeptember (very likely -12.8 +- 2.3% per decade; 1979-2018) "


id: 6317990aa703853554ef2be48c4a5603
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14726
content:
"availability within) herding, hunting, fishing, forage and gathering \r\nareas, affecting the livelihood, health and cultural identity of residents \r\nincluding Indigenous peoples (high confidence). {3.4.1, 3.4.3, 3.5.2}"


id: 572785fe97920bc5db35b4b1ea42560
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12585
content:
"The polar regions will be profoundly different in future \r\ncompared with today, and the degree and nature of that \r\ndifference will depend strongly on the rate and magnitude \r\nof global climatic change6. This will challenge adaptation \r\nresponses regionally and worldwide."


id: 683c9a79caa4ba5b97d6a4010f075c73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15607
content:
"Limited knowledge, financial resources, human capital and \r\norganisational capacity are constraining adaptation in many \r\nhuman sectors in the Arctic (high confidence). Harvesters of \r\nrenewable resources are adjusting timing of activities to changes \r\nin seasonality and less safe ice travel conditions. Municipalities \r\nand industry are addressing infrastructure failures associated with \r\nflooding and thawing permafrost, and coastal communities and \r\ncooperating agencies are in some cases planning for relocation \r\n(high confidence). In spite of these adaptations, many groups are \r\nmaking decisions without adequate knowledge to forecast near- and \r\nlong-term conditions, and without the funding, skills and institutional \r\nsupport to engage fully in planning processes (high confidence). \r\n{3.5.2, 3.5.4, Cross-Chapter Box 9}"


id: ab1e55bb5de889a351f5aca07f815eeb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27330
content:
"It is very likely that projected Arctic warming will result in \r\ncontinued loss of sea ice and snow on land, and reductions in \r\nthe mass of glaciers. Important differences in the trajectories \r\nof loss emerge from 2050 onwards, depending on mitigation \r\nmeasures taken (high confidence). For stabilised global warming \r\nof 1.5oC, an approximately 1% chance of a given September being sea \r\nice free at the end of century is projected; for stabilised warming at \r\na 2oC increase, this rises to 10-35% (high confidence). The potential \r\nfor reduced (further 5-10%) but stabilised Arctic autumn and spring \r\nsnow extent by mid-century for Representative Concentration \r\nPathway (RCP)2.6 contrasts with continued loss under RCP8.5 \r\n(a further 15-25% reduction to end of century) (high confidence). \r\nProjected mass reductions for polar glaciers between 2015 and 2100 \r\nrange from 16 +- 7% for RCP2.6 to 33 +- 11% for RCP8.5 (medium\r\nconfidence). {3.2.2, 3.3.2, 3.4.2, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2}"


id: 7dee5b094b07cb2d13e9b81e158e10fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19336
content:
"Both polar oceans will be increasingly affected by CO2\r\nuptake, causing conditions corrosive for calcium carbonate \r\nshell-producing organisms (high confidence), with associated \r\nimpacts on marine organisms and ecosystems (medium \r\nconfidence). It is very likely that both the Southern Ocean and the \r\nArctic Ocean will experience year-round conditions of surface water \r\nundersaturation for mineral forms of calcium carbonate by 2100 \r\nunder RCP8.5; under RCP2.6 the extent of undersaturated waters \r\nare reduced markedly. Imperfect representation of local processes \r\nand sea ice interaction in global climate models limit the ability to \r\nproject the response of specific polar areas and the precise timing of \r\nundersaturation at seasonal scales. Differences in sensitivity and the \r\nscope for adaptation to projected levels of ocean acidification exist \r\nacross a broad range of marine species groups. {3.2.1, 3.2.2.3, 3.2.3}"


id: 764bc87ee8af4675f57a5019595a5dbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18031
content:
"There is limited evidence and high agreement that recent \r\nAntarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass losses could be irreversible \r\nover decades to millennia. Rapid mass loss due to glacier flow \r\nacceleration in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West \r\nAntarctica and in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, may indicate the \r\nbeginning of Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), but observational \r\ndata are not yet sufficient to determine whether these changes mark \r\nthe beginning of irreversible retreat. {3.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 8 in \r\nChapter 3, 4.2.3.1.2}"


id: ffce6a50baf11bb3e2697601c50c00a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42398
content:
"Responding to climate change in polar regions will be more \r\neffective if attention to reducing immediate risks (short-term \r\nadaptation) is concurrent with long-term planning that builds \r\nresilience to address expected and unexpected impacts (high \r\nconfidence). Emphasis on short-term adaptation to specific problems \r\nwill ultimately not succeed in reducing the risks and vulnerabilities to \r\nsociety given the scale, complexity and uncertainty of climate change. \r\nMoving toward a  dual focus of short- and long-term adaptation \r\ninvolves knowledge co-production, linking knowledge with decision \r\nmaking and implementing ecosystem-based stewardship, which \r\ninvolves the transformation of many existing institutions (high \r\nconfidence). {3.5.4}"


id: 196be0de96b564eb695017d7ba69cf23
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1687
content:
"Widespread disappearance of Arctic near-surface permafrost \r\nis projected to occur this century as a result of warming (very\r\nhigh confidence), with important consequences for global \r\nclimate. By 2100, near-surface permafrost area will decrease \r\nby  2-66% for RCP2.6 and 30-99% for RCP8.5. This is projected \r\nto release 10s to 100s of billions of tons (Gt C), up to as much as \r\n240 Gt C, of permafrost carbon as carbon dioxide and methane to \r\nthe atmosphere with the potential to accelerate climate change. \r\nMethane will contribute a small proportion of these additional carbon \r\nemissions, on the order of 0.01-0.06 Gt CH4 yr-1, but could contribute \r\n40-70% of the total permafrost-affected radiative forcing because of \r\nits higher warming potential. There is medium evidence but with low \r\nagreement whether the level and timing of increased plant growth \r\nand replenishment of soil will compensate these permafrost carbon \r\nlosses. {3.4.2, 3.4.3}"


id: 6f4706cbda2c278b3811fa8ec0118134
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16839
content:
"vulnerability, notwithstanding uncertainty about local SLR impacts \r\nin coming decades and beyond (high confidence). {4.2.2.4, 4.3.1, \r\n4.3.2.2, 4.3.2.3}"


id: e89b434bb657ea5d21db94364c9311e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38263
content:
"Global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising (virtually certain)\r\nand accelerating (high confidence)\r\n7\r\n. The sum of glacier and \r\nice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of GMSL \r\nrise (very high confidence). GMSL from tide gauges and altimetry \r\nobservations increased from 1.4 mm yr-1 over the period 1901-1990 \r\nto 2.1  mm yr-1 over the period 1970-2015 to 3.2  mm yr-1 over \r\nthe period 1993-2015 to 3.6 mm yr-1 over the period 2006-2015 \r\n(high confidence). The dominant cause of GMSL rise since 1970 is \r\nanthropogenic forcing (high confidence). {4.2.2.1.1, 4.2.2.2}"


id: a83f891345365f996a2d8b0f696d899f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26817
content:
"Non-climatic anthropogenic drivers, including recent \r\nand historical demographic and settlement trends and \r\nanthropogenic subsidence, have played an important role \r\nin increasing low-lying coastal communities' exposure and \r\nvulnerability to SLR and extreme sea level (ESL) events (very \r\nhigh confidence). In coastal deltas, for example, these drivers have \r\naltered freshwater and sediment availability (high confidence). In \r\nlow-lying coastal areas more broadly, human-induced changes can \r\nbe rapid and modify coastlines over short periods of time, outpacing \r\nthe effects of SLR (high confidence). Adaptation can be undertaken in \r\nthe short- to medium-term by targeting local drivers of exposure and "


id: d7941b87618b7ef4e0ef478c6770b558
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35234
content:
"Future rise in GMSL caused by thermal expansion, melting \r\nof glaciers and ice sheets and land water storage changes, is \r\nstrongly dependent on which Representative Concentration \r\nPathway (RCP) emission scenario is followed. SLR at the end "


id: 80f99bd9aff2c66d89c9d4e064f43142
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19829
content:
"allow for a wider range of adaptation options. For the first half of the \r\n21st century differences in ESL events among the scenarios are small, \r\nfacilitating adaptation planning. {4.2.2.5, 4.2.3.4, Figure TS.6}"


id: ea5cc141f584448947a64b28d169aae1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38592
content:
"of the century is projected to be faster under all scenarios, \r\nincluding those compatible with achieving the long-term \r\ntemperature goal set out in the Paris Agreement. GMSL will \r\nrise between 0.43 m (0.29-0.59 m, likely range; RCP2.6) and \r\n0.84 m (0.61-1.10 m, likely range; RCP8.5) by 2100 (medium \r\nconfidence) relative to 1986-2005. Beyond 2100, sea level will \r\ncontinue to rise for centuries due to continuing deep ocean heat \r\nuptake and mass loss of the GIS and AIS and will remain elevated \r\nfor thousands of years (high confidence). Under RCP8.5, estimates \r\nfor 2100 are higher and the uncertainty range larger than in AR5. \r\nAntarctica could contribute up to 28 cm of SLR (RCP8.5, upper end of \r\nlikely range) by the end of the century (medium confidence). Estimates \r\nof SLR higher than the likely range are also provided here for decision \r\nmakers with low risk tolerance. {SR1.5, 4.1, 4.2.3.2, 4.2.3.5}"


id: 46e69fd0901d65e48b337339c36dec2f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9676
content:
"Sea level rise is not globally uniform and varies regionally. \r\nThermal expansion, ocean dynamics and land ice loss \r\ncontributions will generate regional departures of about +-30% \r\naround the GMSL rise. Differences from the global mean can be \r\ngreater than +-30% in areas of rapid vertical land movements, \r\nincluding those caused by local anthropogenic factors such as \r\ngroundwater extraction (high confidence). Subsidence caused by \r\nhuman activities is currently the most important cause of relative sea \r\nlevel rise (RSL) change in many delta regions. While the comparative \r\nimportance of climate-driven RSL rise will increase over time, these \r\nfindings on anthropogenic subsidence imply that a consideration of \r\nlocal processes is critical for projections of sea level impacts at local \r\nscales (high confidence). {4.2.1.6, 4.2.2.4}"


id: 25443d58102b7bccae1d334c0495e756
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3747
content:
"Due to projected GMSL rise, ESLs that are historically rare (for \r\nexample, today's hundred-year event) will become common \r\nby 2100 under all RCPs (high confidence). Many low-lying cities \r\nand small islands at most latitudes will experience such events \r\nannually by 2050. Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation envisioned in \r\nlow-emission scenarios (e.g., RCP2.6) is expected to sharply reduce \r\nbut not eliminate risk to low-lying coasts and islands from SLR and \r\nESL events. Low-emission scenarios lead to slower rates of SLR and "


id: 22cb055c242b33c4b611e33d05462d40
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3332
content:
"risks are already high, and population size and density are low, or in \r\nthe aftermath of a coastal disaster, retreat may be especially effective, \r\nalbeit socially, culturally and politically challenging. {4.4.2.2, 4.4.2.3, \r\n4.4.2.4, 4.4.2.5, 4.4.2.6, 4.4.3}"


id: bbaf9f7c2cfe8f01b0effab5aabd6f0a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30246
content:
"All types of responses to SLR, including protection, \r\naccommodation, EbA, advance and retreat, have important \r\nand synergistic roles to play in an integrated and sequenced \r\nresponse to SLR (high confidence). Hard protection and advance \r\n(building into the sea) are economically efficient in most urban \r\ncontexts facing land scarcity (high confidence), but can lead to \r\nincreased exposure in the long term. Where sufficient space is \r\navailable, EbA can both reduce coastal risks and provide multiple \r\nother benefits (medium confidence). Accommodation such as flood \r\nproofing buildings and EWS for ESL events are often both low-cost and \r\nhighly cost-efficient in all contexts (high confidence). Where coastal "


id: c26a214857c545e01d47ec81c8de617f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31487
content:
"Technical limits to hard protection are expected to be reached \r\nunder high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) beyond 2100 (high \r\nconfidence) and biophysical limits to EbA may arise during \r\nthe 21st century, but economic and social barriers arise well \r\nbefore the end of the century (medium confidence). Economic \r\nchallenges to hard protection increase with higher sea levels and will \r\nmake adaptation unaffordable before technical limits are reached \r\n(high confidence). Drivers other than SLR are expected to contribute "


id: 1fa5377fd164cf6534aa8b2ebb69ad96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2779
content:
"conflict resolution (medium evidence, high agreement). Finally, public \r\nawareness and understanding about SLR risks and responses can be \r\nimproved by drawing on local, indigenous and scientific knowledge \r\nsystems, together with social learning about locality-specific SLR risk \r\nand response potential (high confidence). {4.4.4.2, 4.4.5, Table 4.9, \r\nFigure TS.7}"


id: d9b778783cd0123697afdecdac4133c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35598
content:
"more to biophysical limits of EbA. For corals, limits may be reached \r\nduring this century, due to ocean acidification and ocean warming, \r\nand for tidal wetlands due to pollution and infrastructure limiting \r\ntheir inland migration. Limits to accommodation are expected to occur \r\nwell before limits to protection occur. Limits to retreat are uncertain, \r\nreflecting research gaps. Social barriers (including governance \r\nchallenges) to adaptation are already encountered. {4.4.2.2, 4.4.2.3, \r\n4.4.2.3.2, 4.4.2.5, 4.4.2.6, 4.4.3, Cross-Chapter Box 9}"


id: caf632feba00cf068a45ce6e5a4b55d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33048
content:
"The ocean has warmed unabated since 2005, continuing the \r\nclear multi-decadal ocean warming trends documented in \r\nthe IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The warming trend is \r\nfurther confirmed by the improved ocean temperature measurements \r\nover the last decade. The 0-700 m and 700-2000 m layers of the \r\nocean have warmed at rates of 5.31 +- 0.48 and 4.02 +- 0.97 ZJ yr-1\r\nfrom 2005 to 2017. The long-term trend for 0-700 m and 700-\r\n2000 m layers have warmed 4.35 +- 0.8 and 2.25 +- 0.64  ZJ  yr-1\r\nfrom between the averages of 1971-1990 and 1998-2017 and is \r\nattributed to anthropogenic influences. It is likely the ocean warming \r\nhas continued in the abyssal and deep ocean below 2000 m (southern \r\nhemisphere and Southern Ocean). {1.8.1, 1.2, 5.2.2}"


id: b9c1b33c663f5466edc451414f8221f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29893
content:
"The upper ocean is very likely to have been stratifying since \r\n1970. Observed warming and high-latitude freshening are making \r\nthe surface ocean less dense over time relative to the deeper ocean \r\n(high confidence) and inhibiting the exchange between surface and \r\ndeep waters. The upper 200 m stratification increase is in the very \r\nlikely range of between 2.18-2.42% from 1970 to 2017. {5.2.2}"


id: f10ff393b278050e0134835b71e43335
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39786
content:
"Multiple datasets and models show that the rate of ocean \r\nuptake of atmospheric CO2 has continued to strengthen \r\nin the recent two decades in response to the increasing \r\nconcentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. The very likely range for \r\nocean uptake is between 20-30% of total anthropogenic emissions \r\nin the recent two decades. Evidence is growing that the ocean \r\ncarbon sink is dynamic on decadal timescales, especially in the \r\nSouthern Ocean, which has affected the total global ocean carbon \r\nsink (medium confidence). {5.2.2.3}"


id: f9022007d1dd98817578a629271ebfc8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41174
content:
"There is a growing consensus that the open ocean is losing \r\noxygen overall with a very likely loss of 0.5-3.3% between 1970-\r\n2010 from the ocean surface to 1000 m (medium confidence). \r\nGlobally, the oxygen loss due to warming is reinforced by"


id: bde84cea61ea239e06542e1a3ef06438
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30674
content:
"other processes associated with ocean physics and biogeochemistry, \r\nwhich cause the majority of the observed oxygen decline (high \r\nconfidence). The oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are expanding by \r\na very likely range of 3-8%, most notably in the tropical oceans, but \r\nthere is substantial decadal variability that affects the attribution \r\nof the overall oxygen declines to human activity in tropical regions \r\n(high confidence). {5.2.2.4, Figure TS.3, Figure TS.5}"


id: 6d6018c39e778848448d2326f8ba35d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16518
content:
"primary production on growth, reproduction and survival \r\nof fish stocks (high confidence). Ocean warming and changes \r\nin primary production in the 20th century are related to changes \r\nin productivity of many fish stocks (high confidence), with an \r\naverage decrease of approximately 3% per decade in population \r\nreplenishment and 4.1% (very likely range of 9.0% decline to \r\n0.3% increase) in maximum catch potential (robust evidence, \r\nlow agreement between fish stocks, medium confidence). Species \r\ncomposition of fisheries catches since the 1970s in many shelf seas \r\necosystems of the world is increasing dominated by warm water \r\nspecies (medium confidence). {5.2.3, 5.4.1}"


id: 2334b54ff951a062b09c1a2cfd1314cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3393
content:
"Ocean warming has contributed to observed changes in \r\nbiogeography of organisms ranging from phytoplankton to \r\nmarine mammals (high confidence), consequently changing \r\ncommunity composition (high confidence), and in some \r\ncases, altering interactions between organisms (medium \r\nconfidence). Observed rate of range shifts since the 1950s and its \r\nvery likely range are estimated to be 51.5 +- 33.3 km per decade \r\nand 29.0 +- 15.5 km per decade for organisms in the epipelagic and \r\nseafloor ecosystems, respectively. The direction of the majority of \r\nthe shifts of epipelagic organisms are consistent with a response to \r\nwarming (high confidence). {5.2.3, 5.3}"


id: aff934bcbe48e797f84b2a889c2d7aa5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28198
content:
"and deep ocean, including: warming (virtually certain); ocean \r\nacidification (virtually certain); decreased stability of mineral \r\nforms of calcite (virtually certain); oxygen loss (very likely); \r\nreduced near-surface nutrients (likely as not); decreased net \r\nprimary productivity (high confidence); reduced fish production \r\n(likely) and loss of key ecosystems services (medium confidence) \r\nthat are important for human well-being and sustainable \r\ndevelopment. {5.2.2, Box 5.1, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.4}"


id: 4048bd9bde2e7547e1cc285a24e850ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8500
content:
"been observed in naturally-acidified rocky reef ecosystems (medium \r\nconfidence). Increased nutrient and organic matter loads in estuaries \r\nsince the 1970s have exacerbated the effects of warming on bacterial \r\nrespiration and eutrophication, leading to expansion of hypoxic areas \r\n(high confidence). {5.3.1, 5.3.2, 5.3.4, 5.3.6}"


id: 59b4641c9743212fe9829d7bf66a5376
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13023
content:
"Coastal and near-shore ecosystems including salt marshes, \r\nmangroves and vegetated dunes in sandy beaches have \r\na  varying capacity to build vertically and expand laterally \r\nin response to SLR. These ecosystems provide important services \r\nincluding coastal protection, carbon sequestration and habitat for \r\ndiverse biota (high confidence). The carbon emission associated \r\nwith the loss of vegetated coastal ecosystems is estimated to be \r\n0.04-1.46  Gt C yr-1 (high confidence). The natural capacity of \r\necosystems to adapt to climate impacts may be limited by human \r\nactivities that fragment wetland habitats and restrict landward \r\nmigration (high confidence). {5.3.2, 5.3.3, 5.4.1, 5.5.1}"


id: 5c819b1f756593a431ed499682e4b97b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13536
content:
"It is virtually certain that surface ocean pH will decline, by \r\n0.036-0.042 or 0.287-0.29 pH units by 2081-2100, relative to \r\n2006-2015, for the RCP2.6 or RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. \r\nThese pH changes are very likely to cause the Arctic and Southern \r\nOceans, as well as the North Pacific and Northwestern Atlantic Oceans \r\nto become corrosive for the major mineral forms of calcium carbonate \r\nunder RCP8.5, but these changes are virtually certain to be avoided \r\nunder the RCP2.6 scenario. There is increasing evidence of an increase \r\nin the seasonal exposure to acidified conditions in the future (high \r\nconfidence), with a very likely increase in the amplitude of seasonal \r\ncycle of hydrogen iron concentrations of 71-90% by 2100, relative to \r\n2000 for the RCP8.5 scenario, especially at high latitudes. {5.2.2.3}"


id: 7f0a704e66cb5b2e8bc40b9ea9634e16
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19501
content:
"Oxygen is projected to decline further. Globally, the oxygen content \r\nof the ocean is very likely to decline by 3.2-3.7% by 2081-2100, \r\nrelative to 2006-2015, for the RCP8.5 scenario or by 1.6-2.0% for \r\nthe RCP2.6 scenario. The volume of the oceans OMZ is projected to \r\ngrow by a very likely range of 7.0 +- 5.6% by 2100 during the RCP8.5 \r\nscenario, relative to 1850-1900. The climate signal of oxygen loss \r\nwill very likely emerge from the historical climate by 2050 with a very \r\nlikely range of 59-80% of ocean area being affected by 2031-2050 \r\nand rising with a very likely range of 79-91% by 2081-2100 (RCP8.5 \r\nemissions scenario). The emergence of oxygen loss is very likely smaller \r\nin area for the RCP2.6 scenario in the 21st century and by 2090 the \r\nemerged area is declining. {5.2.2.4, Box 5.1 Figure 1}"


id: a2885532dc3c00f4b11548efd0f71627
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25811
content:
"Climate models project significant changes in the ocean state \r\nover the coming century. Under the high emissions scenario \r\n(Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5) the impacts \r\nby 2090 are substantially larger and more widespread than for \r\nthe low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) throughout the surface "


id: 3f37f4af222cf12a5f87ed78f2c0b53e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8310
content:
"deep sea is projected to lead to a 5-6% reduction in biomass of \r\nbenthic biota over more than 97% of the abyssal seafloor by 2100 \r\n(medium confidence). {5.2.2.6, 5.2.4.2, Figure TS.8}"


id: 509c68bb7c94151027d3b3d21067331
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11458
content:
"Climate models project that net primary productivity will very \r\nlikely decline by 4-11% for RCP8.5 by 2081-2100, relative to \r\n2006-2015. The decline is due to the combined effects of warming, \r\nstratification, light, nutrients and predation and will show regional \r\nvariations between low and high latitudes (low confidence). The \r\ntropical ocean NPP will very likely decline by 7-16% for RCP8.5, with \r\nmedium confidence as there are improved constraints from historical \r\nvariability in this region. Globally, the sinking flux of organic matter \r\nfrom the upper ocean into the ocean interior is very likely to decrease \r\nby 9-16% for RCP8.5 in response to increased stratification and \r\nreduced nutrient supply, especially in tropical regions (medium \r\nconfidence), which will reduce organic carbon supply to deep sea \r\necosystems (high confidence). The reduction in food supply to the "


id: db5030a30e855147237a750be1f1c1db
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35852
content:
"Simulated ocean warming and changes in NPP during the 21st \r\ncentury are projected to alter community structure of marine \r\norganisms (high confidence), reduce global marine animal \r\nbiomass (medium confidence) and the maximum potential \r\ncatches of fish stocks (medium confidence) with regional \r\ndifferences in the direction and magnitude of changes (high \r\nconfidence). The global biomass of marine animals, including those \r\nthat contribute to fisheries, is projected to decrease with a very likely\r\nrange under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 of 4.3 +- 2.0% and 15.0 +- 5.9%, \r\nrespectively, by 2080-2099 relative to 1986-2005. The maximum \r\ncatch potential is projected to decrease by 3.4% to 6.4% (RCP2.6) \r\nand 20.5% to 24.1% (RCP8.5) in the 21st century. {5.4.1}"


id: b0662e9d888ab43b9fa0ab67522d9d1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28269
content:
"expansion of vegetation may initially mitigate against flooding and \r\nhabitat loss, but salt marshes in particular will be at very high risk \r\nin the context of SLR and extreme climate-driven erosion under \r\nRCP8.5. {5.3, Figure 5.16}"


id: 800b2dfe3b6a751819548d3136dd310f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19657
content:
"Projected decreases in global marine animal biomass and \r\nfish catch potential could elevate the risk of impacts on \r\nincome, livelihood and food security of the dependent human \r\ncommunities (medium confidence). Projected climate change \r\nimpacts on fisheries also increase the risk of potential conflicts among \r\nfishery area users and authorities or between two different communities \r\nwithin the same country (medium confidence), exacerbated through \r\ncompeting resource exploitation from international actors and \r\nmal-adapted policies (low confidence). {5.2.3, 5.4, 5.5.3}"


id: 82e9e9374bff3ce3ce6d2ab416569339
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20158
content:
"Anthropogenic changes in EBUS will emerge primarily in the \r\nsecond half of the 21st century (medium confidence). EBUS will \r\nbe impacted by climate change in different ways, with strong regional \r\nvariability with consequences for fisheries, recreation and climate \r\nregulation (medium confidence). The Pacific EBUS are projected \r\nto have calcium carbonate undersaturation in surface waters \r\nwithin a few decades under RCP8.5 (high confidence); combined \r\nwith warming and decreasing oxygen levels, this will increase the \r\nimpacts on shellfish larvae, benthic invertebrates and demersal fishes \r\n(high confidence) and related fisheries and aquaculture (medium \r\nconfidence). The inherent natural variability of EBUS, together with "


id: 25357299588df0a36b2d38e61f8d0bcc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3740
content:
"uncertainties in present and future trends in the intensity and \r\nseasonality of upwelling, coastal warming and stratification, primary \r\nproduction and biogeochemistry of source waters poses large \r\nchallenges in projecting the response of EBUS to climate change and \r\nto the adaptation of governance of biodiversity conservation and \r\nliving marine resources in EBUS (high confidence). {Box 5.3}"


id: 5b80165ab17e4d546c9d6e85ba4035a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13341
content:
"Climate change impacts on ecosystems and their goods \r\nand services threatens key cultural dimensions of lives and \r\nlivelihoods. These threats include erosion of Indigenous and \r\nnon-indigenous culture, their knowledge about the ocean and \r\nknowledge transmission, reduced access to traditional food, loss \r\nof opportunities for aesthetic and spiritual appreciation of the \r\necosystems, and marine recreational activities (medium confidence). \r\nUltimately, these can lead to the loss of part of people's cultural \r\nidentity and values beyond the rate at which identify and values can \r\nbe adjusted or substituted (medium confidence). {5.4.2}"


id: a7bd92390874e2dbad188070940e2582
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26727
content:
"Shifting distributions of fish stocks between governance \r\njurisdictions will increase the risk of potential conflicts among \r\nfishery area users and authorities or between two different \r\ncommunities within the same country (medium confidence).\r\nThese fishery governance related risks are widespread under high \r\nemissions scenarios with regional hotspots (medium confidence), \r\nand highlight the limits of existing natural resource management \r\nframeworks for addressing ecosystem change (high confidence). \r\n{5.2.5, 5.4.2.1.3, 5.5, 5.5.2}"


id: 47202ce01f1227d08e857c35e0f7f264
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9715
content:
"Socioinstitutional adaptation responses are more frequently \r\nreported in the literature than ecosystem-based and built \r\ninfrastructure approaches. Hard engineering responses are more \r\neffective when supported by ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) \r\napproaches (high agreement), and both approaches are enhanced by \r\ncombining with socioinstitutional approaches for adaptation (high \r\nconfidence). Stakeholder engagement is necessary (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). {5.5.2}"


id: 311d9d1a37727f0d85e1022b3779e955
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5890
content:
"EbA is a cost-effective coastal protection tool that can \r\nhave many co-benefits, including supporting livelihoods, \r\ncontributing to carbon sequestration and the provision of \r\na range of other valuable ecosystem services (high confidence).\r\nSuch adaptation does, however, assume that the climate can be \r\nstabilised. Under changing climatic conditions there are limits to the \r\neffectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation, and these limits are \r\ncurrently difficult to determine. {5.5.2.1}"


id: 49d56e8c06731585e0260692ec512b2f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10229
content:
"Observed widespread decline in warm water corals has led \r\nto the consideration of alternative restoration approaches \r\nto enhance climate resilience. Approaches, such as 'coral reef \r\ngardening' have been tested, and ecological engineering and \r\nother approaches such as assisted evolution, colonisation and \r\nchimerism are being researched for reef restoration. However, \r\nthe effectiveness of these approaches to increase resilience to \r\nclimate stressors and their large-scale implementation for reef \r\nrestoration will be limited unless warming and ocean acidification \r\nare rapidly controlled (high confidence). {Box 5.5, 5.5.2}"


id: a781d229a2715b9f4c1897084010daa1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26682
content:
"Both palaeoclimate and modern observations suggest that the \r\nstrongest El Nino and La Nina events since the pre-industrial \r\nperiod have occurred during the last fifty years (medium \r\nconfidence). There have been three occurrences of extreme El Nino \r\nevents during the modern observational period (1982-1983, \r\n1997-1998, 2015-2016), all characterised by pronounced rainfall \r\nin the normally dry equatorial East Pacific. There have been two \r\noccurrences of extreme La Nina (1988-1989, 1998-1999). El Nino \r\nand La Nina variability during the last 50 years is unusually high \r\ncompared with average variability during the last millennium. \r\n{6.5, Figure 6.5}"


id: fae38f8320f39b8f026ffce9dd937b4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41521
content:
"patterns, and changes in tides due to sea level rise, can locally enhance \r\nor ameliorate coastal hazards (medium confidence). {6.3.1, 5.2.2}"


id: 475d734a97f2e4d93dbbcbe83b179557
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9763
content:
"Ocean, influencing the rate of global temperature change \r\n(medium confidence). In the last two decades, total water transport \r\nfrom the Pacific to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), \r\nand the Indian Ocean to Atlantic Ocean has increased (high confidence). \r\nIncreased ITF has been linked to Pacific cooling trends and basin-wide \r\nwarming trends in the Indian Ocean. Pacific sea surface temperature \r\n(SST) cooling trends and strengthened trade winds have been linked to \r\nan anomalously warm tropical Atlantic. {6.6, Figure 6.7}"


id: a3ff683aa6aae4f8fe702dc9e5fa28ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26042
content:
"Extreme El Nino and La Nina events are projected to likely\r\nincrease in frequency in the 21st century and to likely intensify \r\nexisting hazards, with drier or wetter responses in several \r\nregions across the globe. Extreme El Nino events are projected to \r\noccur about as twice as often under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the \r\n21st century when compared to the 20th century (medium confidence). \r\nProjections indicate that extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events also \r\nincrease in frequency (low confidence). {6.5, Figures 6.5, 6.6}"


id: f57a8e52fd677bc4c806c1d057565799
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40553
content:
"Significant wave heights (the average height from trough to \r\ncrest of the highest one-third of waves) are projected to increase \r\nacross the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific (high \r\nconfidence) and Baltic Sea (medium confidence) and decrease \r\nover the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea under RCP8.5 \r\n(high confidence). Coastal tidal amplitudes and patterns are projected \r\nto change due to sea level rise and coastal adaptation measures (very \r\nlikely). Projected changes in waves arising from changes in weather "


id: 7ca0a44bb3e37c1d05093df3e4a48f82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19126
content:
"(medium confidence). If carbon emissions decline, the risk of \r\nextremes and abrupt changes are reduced, creating co-benefits. \r\n{6.8.6}"


id: d247c6f36242d73802e4002ea009d9dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34350
content:
"IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of \r\nWorking Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, \r\nJ. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi,\r\nA. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY,\r\nUSA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.001"


id: 4b150e51c3ca34344591e8aadff25104
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10453
content:
"Figure SPM.2 | Regional GHG emissions, and the regional proportion of total cumulative production-based CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019. "


id: 198c03237b39c3fb2d34a77f8ab1db45
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1705
content:
"IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, \r\ndesertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in \r\nterrestrial ecosystems [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.- O. Portner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, \r\nR. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. \r\nVyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, (eds.)]. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157988.001"


id: 4b562298c579e1a7541b582e49fee50d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10502
content:
"The Special Report on Climate Change and Land broke new ground for IPCC. It was the first IPCC report to be produced by \r\nall three Working Groups in collaboration with the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI), and it was the \r\nfirst IPCC report with more authors from developing countries than authors from developed countries. It was marked by an \r\ninspiring degree of collaboration and interdisciplinarity, reflecting the wide scope of the mandate given to authors by the \r\nPanel. It brought together authors not only from the IPCC's traditional scientific communities, but also those from sister UN \r\norganisations including the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the \r\nScience-Policy Interface of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization \r\nof the UN (FAO)."


id: 91abb60e083f79f07778ec558536c9d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22859
content:
"We must pay tribute to the 107 Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors and Review Editors, from 52 countries, who were \r\nresponsible for the report. They gave countless hours of their time, on a voluntary basis, and attended four Lead Author \r\nmeetings in widely scattered parts of the globe. The constructive interplay between the authors, who draft the report, and \r\nthe Review Editors, who provide assurance that all comments are responded to, greatly helped the process. Throughout, all \r\ndemonstrated scientific rigour while at the same time maintaining good humour and a spirit of true collaboration. They did so \r\nagainst a very tight timetable which allowed no scope for slippage. They were supported by input from 96 Contributing Authors. "


id: b51546951cd7de1cdc8259ecbff58ea1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29093
content:
"We would like to acknowledge especially the support of the Chapter Scientists who took time out from their emerging careers \r\nto support the production of the report. We thank Yuping Bai, Aliyu Barau, Erik Contreras, Abdoul Aziz Diouf, Baldur Janz, \r\nFrances Manning, Dorothy Nampanzira, Chuck Chuan Ng, Helen Paulos, Xiyan Xu and Thobekile Zikhali. We very much hope \r\nthat the experience will help them in their future careers and that their vital role will be suitably recognised. "


id: 53e91b430782eb92d08d369fed9f9652
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12033
content:
"Several governments and other bodies hosted and supported the scoping meeting, the four Lead Author meetings, and the \r\nfinal IPCC Plenary. These were: the Government of Norway and the Norwegian Environment Agency, the Government of \r\nNew Zealand and the University of Canterbury, the Government of Ireland and the Environmental Protection Agency, the \r\nGovernment of Colombia and the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), the Government of Switzerland and the \r\nWorld Meteorological Organization. "


id: 7e1f952475cb038ff6f74b58013e2fb2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19362
content:
"The staff of the IPCC Secretariat based in Geneva provided a wide range of support for which we would like to thank Abdalah \r\nMokssit, Secretary of the IPCC, and his colleagues: Kerstin Stendahl, Jonathan Lynn, Sophie Schlingemann, Jesbin Baidya, Laura \r\nBiagioni, Annie Courtin, Oksana Ekzarkho, Judith Ewa, Joelle Fernandez, Andrea Papucides Bach, Nina Peeva, Mxolisi Shongwe, \r\nand Werani Zabula. Thanks are due to Elhousseine Gouaini who served as the conference officer for the 50th Session of the \r\nIPCC."


id: f3cb4735a81d9e7abbfe1774e2377bd7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40268
content:
"A number of individuals provided support for the visual elements of the report and its communication. We would single out \r\nJordan Harold of the University of East Anglia, Susan Escott of Escott Hunt Ltd, Angela Morelli and Tom Gabriel Johansen of \r\nInfo Design Lab, and Polly Jackson, Ian Blenkinsop, Autumn Forecast, Francesca Romano and Alice Woodward of Soapbox \r\nCommunications Ltd."


id: 5a8c29bfbee68b8314823a71e0326548
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13186
content:
"The report was managed by the Technical Support Unit of IPCC Working Group III which has the generous financial support \r\nof the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the UK Government through its Department of \r\nBusiness, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). In addition, the Irish Environmental Protection Agency provided support for \r\ntwo secondees to the WG III Technical Support Unit, while the Norwegian Environment Agency enabled an expanded set of \r\ncommunication activities. Without the support of all these bodies this report would not have been possible."


id: 2c06b942b9cb33296b5ee0c3e6ec0561
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5000
content:
"And a final deep thanks to family and friends who indirectly supported the work by tolerating the periods authors spent away \r\nfrom home, the long hours and their absorption in the process of producing this report. "


id: dd0424164234f704e8afab4249631d21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36146
content:
"This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is structured in four parts: A) People, land and climate in a warming world; B) Adaptation and \r\nmitigation response options; C) Enabling response options; and, D) Action in the near-term."


id: ddc855c642e36359a0c6efeb7d8d5581
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36283
content:
"Confidence in key findings is indicated using the IPCC calibrated language; the underlying scientific basis of each key finding is indicated \r\nby references to the main report.9"


id: fed3401654b5cdfe4038266194db9af7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42224
content:
"An estimated 23% of total anthropogenic \r\ngreenhouse gas emissions (2007-2016)\r\nderive from Agriculture, Forestry and \r\nOther Land Use (AFOLU)."


id: 9fa506b82aad47e8e40a2c1ab2bb1b6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25298
content:
"Since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) the observed mean land surface air \r\ntemperature has risen considerably more than the global mean surface (land and ocean) \r\ntemperature (GMST). "


id: b1276735de0d76d27e95ebeb580ff6d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28391
content:
"Land use change and rapid land use \r\nintensification have supported the \r\nincreasing production of food, feed and \r\nfibre. Since 1961, the total production of \r\nfood (cereal crops) has increased by 240% \r\n(until 2017) because of land area \r\nexpansion and increasing yields. Fibre \r\nproduction (cotton) increased by 162% \r\n(until 2013). "


id: 6e80a787d243fa4e111dc9f1d3d2f2c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16707
content:
"g\r\nLand-use change, land-use intensification \r\nand climate change have contributed to \r\ndesertification and land degradation."


id: 17e0f5deced6e4d67fa3e9dc2a9312c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1404
content:
"1\r\n Estimates are only given until 2016 as this is the latest date when data are available for all gases. \r\n2\r\n Net anthropogenic flux of CO2 due to land cover change such as deforestation and afforestation, and land management including wood harvest and regrowth, as well \r\nas peatland burning, based on two bookkeeping models as used in the Global Carbon Budget and for AR5. Agricultural soil carbon stock change under the same land \r\nuse is not considered in these models. {2.3.1.2.1, Table 2.2, Box 2.2}"


id: 9d2dda711355b6d3b7a6978f5fc583a1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24891
content:
"In this report the implications of future socio-economic development on climate change mitigation, adaptation and land-use \r\nare explored using shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The SSPs span a range of challenges to climate change mitigation \r\nand adaptation."


id: 4eee167715b2f52739143a4204deb85b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11169
content:
"Increases in global mean surface temperature (GMST), relative to pre-industrial levels, aect processes involved in desertification (water \r\nscarcity), land degradation (soil erosion, vegetation loss, wildfire, permafrost thaw) and food security (crop yield and food supply \r\ninstabilities). Changes in these processes drive risks to food systems, livelihoods, infrastructure, the value of land, and human and \r\necosystem health. Changes in one process (e.g. wildfire or water scarcity) may result in compound risks. Risks are location-specific and \r\ndier by region."


id: 9573e4795e3ed850daa802cd84ec4f32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23500
content:
"Socio-economic choices can reduce or \r\nexacerbate climate related risks as well as \r\ninfluence the rate of temperature increase. \r\nThe SSP1 pathway illustrates a world with \r\nlow population growth, high income and \r\nreduced inequalities, food produced in low \r\nGHG emission systems, eective land use \r\nregulation and high adaptive capacity. The \r\nSSP3 pathway has the opposite trends. \r\nRisks are lower in SSP1 compared with \r\nSSP3 given the same level of GMST \r\nincrease."


id: 5a41573a29a290939a5c4222091a271f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13126
content:
"confidence). The most vulnerable people will be more severely affected (high confidence). {5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.2.5, 5.8.1, 7.2.2.2, \r\n7.3.1}"


id: 5ae356a85f25dc02bb53539bb760f7bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13237
content:
"options that reduce competition for land are possible and are applicable at different scales, from farm to regional (high \r\nconfidence). (Figure SPM.3) {4.8, 6.3.6, 6.4}"


id: 2a6fb19170d367766a3e9ca24a3e3f38
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4692
content:
"Panel A shows response options that can be implemented without or with limited competition for land, including some that have the \r\npotential to reduce the demand for land. Co-benefits and adverse side e\bects are shown quantitatively based on the high end of the \r\nrange of potentials assessed. Magnitudes of contributions are categorised using thresholds for positive or negative impacts. Letters \r\nwithin the cells indicate confidence in the magnitude of the impact relative to the thresholds used (see legend). Confidence in the \r\ndirection of change is generally higher."


id: 2ae8813320680b414c577ef261591ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4783
content:
"Options shown are those for which data are available to assess global potential for three or more land challenges.\r\nThe magnitudes are assessed independently for each option and are not additive."


id: b9009ea836078f170526823a5a419963
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29752
content:
"Panel B shows response options that rely on additional land-use change and could have implications across three or more land \r\nchallenges under di\nerent implementation contexts. For each option, the first row (high level implementation) shows a quantitative \r\nassessment (as in Panel A) of implications for global implementation at scales delivering CO2 removals of more than 3 GtCO2 yr-1 using \r\nthe magnitude thresholds shown in Panel A. The red hatched cells indicate an increasing pressure but unquantified impact. For each \r\noption, the second row (best practice implementation) shows qualitative estimates of impact if implemented using best practices in \r\nappropriately managed landscape systems that allow for e\nicient and sustainable resource use and supported by appropriate \r\ngovernance mechanisms. In these qualitative assessments, green indicates a positive impact, grey indicates a neutral interaction. "


id: d567b4461ac1acb6adc5cebb15938931
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34863
content:
"Best practice: The sign and magnitude of the e\nects of bioenergy and BECCS depends on the scale of deployment, the type of bioenergy feedstock, which other \r\nresponse options are included, and where bioenergy is grown (including prior land use and indirect land use change emissions). For example, limiting bioenergy \r\nproduction to marginal lands or abandoned cropland would have negligible e\nects on biodiversity, food security, and potentially co-benefits for land degradation; \r\nhowever, the benefits for mitigation could also be smaller. {Table 6.58}"


id: c3da0e3de45d0d03429a04ac888400c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31734
content:
"Best practice: There are co-benefits of reforestation and forest restoration in previously forested areas, assuming small scale deployment using native species and \r\ninvolving local stakeholders to provide a safety net for food security. Examples of sustainable implementation include, but are not limited to, reducing illegal logging \r\nand halting illegal forest loss in protected areas, reforesting and restoring forests in degraded and desertified lands {Box6.1C; Table 6.6}."


id: e2e8901d1b758ff987b8bdf5e8b3f59a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37220
content:
"Best practice: A\norestation is used to prevent desertification and to tackle land degradation. Forested land also o\ners benefits in terms of food supply, especially when \r\nforest is established on degraded land, mangroves, and other land that cannot be used for agriculture. For example, food from forests represents a safety-net during \r\ntimes of food and income insecurity {6.3.5}."


id: 78cae5a4c171bcc9d4ad17d94cd87757
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18438
content:
"High level: Impacts on adaptation, desertification, land degradation and food security are maximum potential impacts assuming implementation of biochar at a scale \r\nof 6.6 GtCO2 yr-1 removal {6.3.1}. Dedicated biomass crops required for feedstock production could occupy 0.4-2.6 Mkm2 of land, equivalent to around 20% of the global \r\ncropland area, which could potentially have a large e\nect on food security for up to 100 million people {6.3.5}."


id: 9f68cebe1fa225d7b838bf169069d5d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25266
content:
"Best practice: When applied to land, biochar could provide moderate benefits for food security by improving yields by 25% in the tropics, but with more limited \r\nimpacts in temperate regions, or through improved water holding capacity and nutrient use e\niciency. Abandoned cropland could be used to supply biomass for \r\nbiochar, thus avoiding competition with food production; 5-9 Mkm2 of land is estimated to be available for biomass production without compromising food security \r\nand biodiversity, considering marginal and degraded land and land released by pasture intensification {6.3.5}."


id: cf35f4adcedebab14548a63961c95c47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33803
content:
"Socioeconomic development and land management influence the evolution of the land system including the relative amount of land \r\nallocated to CROPLAND, PASTURE, BIOENERGY CROPLAND, FOREST, and NATURAL LAND. The lines show the median across Integrated \r\nAssessment Models (IAMs) for three alternative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5 at RCP1.9); shaded areas show \r\nthe range across models. Note that pathways illustrate the eects of climate change mitigation but not those of climate change impacts \r\nor adaptation."


id: cca36056d339822474666aa1ed9995af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33328
content:
"A. Sustainability-focused (SSP1)\r\nSustainability in land management, \r\nagricultural intensification, production \r\nand consumption patterns result in \r\nreduced need for agricultural land, \r\ndespite increases in per capita food \r\nconsumption. This land can instead be \r\nused for reforestation, aorestation, and \r\nbioenergy."


id: 1419cf3da0972d38de203cb59e28d44d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 752
content:
"B. Middle of the road (SSP2 )\r\nSocietal as well as technological \r\ndevelopment follows historical patterns. \r\nIncreased demand for land mitigation \r\noptions such as bioenergy, reduced \r\ndeforestation or aorestation decreases \r\navailability of agricultural land for food, \r\nfeed and fibre."


id: ba460f0d04d0a6f9f27c22f53d059ab0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29991
content:
"C. Resource intensive (SSP5)\r\nResource-intensive production and \r\nconsumption patterns, results in high \r\nbaseline emissions. Mitigation focuses on \r\ntechnological solutions including \r\nsubstantial bioenergy and BECCS . \r\nIntensification and competing land uses \r\ncontribute to declines in agricultural land. "


id: 1589a4f8719396db8eee0971470f8f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1002
content:
"require upfront investment, actions to ensure sustainable land management can improve crop yields and the economic value \r\nof pasture. Land restoration and rehabilitation measures improve livelihood systems and provide both short-term positive \r\neconomic returns and longer-term benefits in terms of climate change adaptation and mitigation, biodiversity and enhanced \r\necosystem functions and services (high confidence). {3.6.1, 3.6.3, 4.8.1, 7.2.4, 7.2.3, 7.3.1, 7.4.6, Cross-Chapter Box 10 in \r\nChapter 7}"


id: b07a295fbbd24ff39f966d6b86514951
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28284
content:
"IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5degC. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts \r\nof global warming of 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, \r\nin the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, \r\nand efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Portner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, \r\nA. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Pean, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, \r\nE. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New \r\nYork, NY, USA, pp. 3-24. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001."


id: 825df6e42c5cd7908bf2176b8b807e5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20062
content:
"This Report responds to the invitation for IPCC '... to provide a Special Report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5degC \r\nabove pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways' contained in the Decision of the 21st Conference \r\nof Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to adopt the Paris Agreement.1"


id: d685e77c1a565b9c831883314ecda11e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35050
content:
"The IPCC accepted the invitation in April 2016, deciding to prepare this Special Report on the impacts of global warming of \r\n1.5degC above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global \r\nresponse to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty."


id: 2581cd7f35b342f353ff920b75f87be4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3784
content:
"This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents the key findings of the Special Report, based on the assessment of the available \r\nscientific, technical and socio-economic literature2\r\n relevant to global warming of 1.5degC and for the comparison between global \r\nwarming of 1.5degC and 2degC above pre-industrial levels. The level of confidence associated with each key finding is reported using \r\nthe IPCC calibrated language.3\r\n The underlying scientific basis of each key finding is indicated by references provided to chapter \r\nelements. In the SPM, knowledge gaps are identified associated with the underlying chapters of the Report."


id: 6537fc08f6ebed1d8458cb83197204e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:28
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15080
content:
"Cumulative emissions of CO2 and future non-CO2 radiative forcing determine \r\nthe probability of limiting warming to 1.5degC"


id: e444f715eab537b50838ab5418f3bcc4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37459
content:
"Five Reasons For Concern (RFCs) illustrate the impacts and risks of \r\ndierent levels of global warming for people, economies and ecosystems \r\nacross sectors and regions."


id: e930fb14743b5ba9524e3f5546f0697f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Purple indicates very high \r\nrisks of severe impacts/risks \r\nand the presence of \r\nsignificant irreversibility or \r\nthe persistence of \r\nclimate-related hazards, \r\ncombined with limited \r\nability to adapt due to the \r\nnature of the hazard or \r\nimpacts/risks. \r\nRed indicates severe and \r\nwidespread impacts/risks. \r\nYellow indicates that \r\nimpacts/risks are detectable \r\nand attributable to climate \r\nchange with at least medium \r\nconfidence. \r\nWhite indicates that no \r\nimpacts are detectable and \r\nattributable to climate \r\nchange."


id: 27746d59dc5a430912691dd43005807
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Figure SPM.2 | Five integrative reasons for concern (RFCs) provide a framework for summarizing key impacts and risks across sectors and regions, and were \r\nintroduced in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. RFCs illustrate the implications of global warming for people, economies and ecosystems. Impacts and/or risks \r\nfor each RFC are based on assessment of the new literature that has appeared. As in AR5, this literature was used to make expert judgments to assess the levels \r\nof global warming at which levels of impact and/or risk are undetectable, moderate, high or very high. The selection of impacts and risks to natural, managed and \r\nhuman systems in the lower panel is illustrative and is not intended to be fully comprehensive. {3.4, 3.5, 3.5.2.1, 3.5.2.2, 3.5.2.3, 3.5.2.4, 3.5.2.5, 5.4.1, 5.5.3, \r\n5.6.1, Box 3.4}"


id: 8011eeff91b284af6baf9527e0fc5393
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"as well as substantial risks and institutional and social constraints to deployment related to governance, ethics, and impacts \r\non sustainable development. They also do not mitigate ocean acidification. (medium confidence) {4.3.8, Cross-Chapter\r\nBox 10 in Chapter 4}"


id: f67287df8980c4c065672ad29956bd82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"General characteristics of the evolution of anthropogenic net emissions of CO2, and total emissions of \r\nmethane, black carbon, and nitrous oxide in model pathways that limit global warming to 1.5degC with no or \r\nlimited overshoot. Net emissions are defined as anthropogenic emissions reduced by anthropogenic \r\nremovals. Reductions in net emissions can be achieved through dierent portfolios of mitigation measures \r\nillustrated in Figure SPM.3b."


id: 7a95d134a525eebd0f596031b6986ce7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 18763
content:
"Emissions of non-CO2 forcers are also reduced \r\nor limited in pathways limiting global warming \r\nto 1.5degC with no or limited overshoot, but \r\nthey do not reach zero globally. \r\nNonCO2 emissions relative to 2010"


id: 82ec671911d6cbeb61ab9ffba542998e
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content:
"In pathways limiting global warming to 1.5degC \r\nwith no or limited overshoot as well as in \r\npathways with a higher overshoot, CO2 emissions \r\nare reduced to net zero globally around 2050."


id: 3c247d30712d82adebcd2e0c2f4d021e
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content:
"Dierent mitigation strategies can achieve the net emissions reductions that would be required to follow a \r\npathway that limits global warming to 1.5degC with no or limited overshoot. All pathways use Carbon Dioxide \r\nRemoval (CDR), but the amount varies across pathways, as do the relative contributions of Bioenergy with \r\nCarbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and removals in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) \r\nsector. This has implications for emissions and several other pathway characteristics."


id: fb68077bf85ea9cdad8b40c7c28fe54a
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content:
"P4: A resource- and energy-intensive \r\nscenario in which economic growth and \r\nglobalization lead to widespread \r\nadoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive \r\nlifestyles, including high demand for \r\ntransportation fuels and livestock \r\nproducts. Emissions reductions are \r\nmainly achieved through technological \r\nmeans, making strong use of CDR \r\nthrough the deployment of BECCS."


id: 3d42838494d5af7d0b1f4580c616f4fd
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"P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in\r\nwhich societal as well as technological \r\ndevelopment follows historical \r\npatterns. Emissions reductions are \r\nmainly achieved by changing the way in \r\nwhich energy and products are \r\nproduced, and to a lesser degree by \r\nreductions in demand."


id: 1beb43d32ba1e3583d2900e291e5ea4d
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content:
"NOTE: Indicators have been selected to show global trends identified by the Chapter 2 assessment. \r\nNational and sectoral characteristics can dier substantially from the global trends shown above."


id: 83d4db24de21c39853b472a336e5568a
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content:
"and practices enabling deep emissions reductions include various energy efficiency options. In pathways limiting global \r\nwarming to 1.5degC with no or limited overshoot, the electricity share of energy demand in buildings would be about 55-75% \r\nin 2050 compared to 50-70% in 2050 for 2degC global warming (medium confidence). In the transport sector, the share of \r\nlow-emission final energy would rise from less than 5% in 2020 to about 35-65% in 2050 compared to 25-45% for 2degC \r\nof global warming (medium confidence). Economic, institutional and socio-cultural barriers may inhibit these urban and \r\ninfrastructure system transitions, depending on national, regional and local circumstances, capabilities and the availability \r\nof capital (high confidence). {2.3.4, 2.4.3, 4.2.1, Table 4.1, 4.3.3, 4.5.2}"


id: dc4c7bc2f0cf9de0da3e1df2ef755579
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content:
"dimensions of feasibility. Strengthened multilevel governance, institutional capacity, policy instruments, technological \r\ninnovation and transfer and mobilization of finance, and changes in human behaviour and lifestyles are enabling conditions \r\nthat enhance the feasibility of mitigation and adaptation options for 1.5degC-consistent systems transitions. (high confidence) \r\n{1.4, Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1, 2.5.1, 4.4, 4.5, 5.6}"


id: 9b613aec74e479aa4964f4ff22415724
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 24588
content:
"Mitigation options deployed in each sector can be associated with potential positive e\u000bects (synergies) or \r\nnegative e\u000bects (trade-o\u000bs) with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The degree to which this \r\npotential is realized will depend on the selected portfolio of mitigation options, mitigation policy design, \r\nand local circumstances and context. Particularly in the energy-demand sector, the potential for synergies is \r\nlarger than for trade-o\u000bs. The bars group individually assessed options by level of confidence and take into \r\naccount the relative strength of the assessed mitigation-SDG connections."


id: 2260e8fbd1d400c11ab491476510b95
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"The overall size of the coloured bars depict the relative \r\npotential for synergies and trade-o\u000bs between the sectoral \r\nmitigation options and the SDGs."


id: 39410d51f40679bbef12fc7fba68ab86
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 7285
content:
"The shades depict the level of confidence of the \r\nassessed potential for Trade-o\u0005s/Synergies."


id: 2149d49d837510409f5f8fe908e79e33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 3072
content:
"Information about the net impacts of mitigation on sustainable development in 1.5degC pathways is available only for a limited number of SDGs and mitigation \r\noptions. Only a limited number of studies have assessed the benefits of avoided climate change impacts of 1.5degC pathways for the SDGs, and the co-effects \r\nof adaptation for mitigation and the SDGs. The assessment of the indicative mitigation potentials in Figure SPM.4 is a step further from AR5 towards a more \r\ncomprehensive and integrated assessment in the future."


id: d465c00128efd139b5a34de62fa8ea85
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content:
"growing understanding of the scale and increase in non-governmental organizations and private funding in some regions \r\n(medium confidence). Barriers include the scale of adaptation financing, limited capacity and access to adaptation finance \r\n(medium confidence). {4.4.5, 4.6} "


id: 1a56e2bc6bae3d2cdc1d339104dde610
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vector_id: 1834
content:
"19 Past IPCC reports, reflecting the literature, have used a variety of approximately equivalent metrics of GMST change."


id: a50e8e6eac00afec835ec02742f2046a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Global mean surface temperature (GMST): Estimated global average of near-surface air temperatures over land and \r\nsea ice, and sea surface temperatures over ice-free ocean regions, with changes normally expressed as departures from a \r\nvalue over a specified reference period. When estimating changes in GMST, near-surface air temperature over both land \r\nand oceans are also used.19 {1.2.1.1} "


id: 39667ec288efa2e36c310b883fc20d29
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Pre-industrial: The multi-century period prior to the onset of large-scale industrial activity around 1750. The reference \r\nperiod 1850-1900 is used to approximate pre-industrial GMST. {1.2.1.2} "


id: 6d514a2c1e3ad94062340db11c6a9d71
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content:
"Global warming: The estimated increase in GMST averaged over a 30-year period, or the 30-year period centred on a \r\nparticular year or decade, expressed relative to pre-industrial levels unless otherwise specified. For 30-year periods that \r\nspan past and future years, the current multi-decadal warming trend is assumed to continue. {1.2.1}"


id: 1d955f97b42a67d6923283987855f39a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2390
content:
"Net zero CO2 emissions: Net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are achieved when anthropogenic CO2 emissions are \r\nbalanced globally by anthropogenic CO2 removals over a specified period. "


id: 728b0a00651cf2dc5d0eaa2850d6ba8c
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Carbon dioxide removal (CDR): Anthropogenic activities removing CO2 from the atmosphere and durably storing it in \r\ngeological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. It includes existing and potential anthropogenic enhancement of \r\nbiological or geochemical sinks and direct air capture and storage, but excludes natural CO2 uptake not directly caused by \r\nhuman activities."


id: c92c7fed28fdf768faf5ca3cccf735b8
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vector_id: 32718
content:
"Total carbon budget: Estimated cumulative net global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from the pre-industrial period \r\nto the time that anthropogenic CO2 emissions reach net zero that would result, at some probability, in limiting global \r\nwarming to a given level, accounting for the impact of other anthropogenic emissions. {2.2.2} "


id: d894c785e16f30c9fefc8d0a1429cc0f
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vector_id: 35397
content:
"Remaining carbon budget: Estimated cumulative net global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from a given start date to the \r\ntime that anthropogenic CO2 emissions reach net zero that would result, at some probability, in limiting global warming \r\nto a given level, accounting for the impact of other anthropogenic emissions. {2.2.2}"


id: 8868e6480ddfa4891ed8b9550fc67a67
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content:
"Emission pathways: In this Summary for Policymakers, the modelled trajectories of global anthropogenic emissions over \r\nthe 21st century are termed emission pathways. Emission pathways are classified by their temperature trajectory over \r\nthe 21st century: pathways giving at least 50% probability based on current knowledge of limiting global warming to \r\nbelow 1.5degC are classified as 'no overshoot'; those limiting warming to below 1.6degC and returning to 1.5degC by 2100 are \r\nclassified as '1.5degC limited-overshoot'; while those exceeding 1.6degC but still returning to 1.5degC by 2100 are classified as \r\n'higher-overshoot'."


id: 51ff3185e3b60d523a31a800d70f1b6f
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11701
content:
"Impacts: Effects of climate change on human and natural systems. Impacts can have beneficial or adverse outcomes \r\nfor livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, services, infrastructure, and economic, social and cultural \r\nassets."


id: 7312e1abf90fbe6a9c48cf1540708924
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 17495
content:
"Risk: The potential for adverse consequences from a climate-related hazard for human and natural systems, resulting \r\nfrom the interactions between the hazard and the vulnerability and exposure of the affected system. Risk integrates \r\nthe likelihood of exposure to a hazard and the magnitude of its impact. Risk also can describe the potential for adverse \r\nconsequences of adaptation or mitigation responses to climate change. "


id: e51d8bc3a0746647b22a47f7b5acf1aa
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37605
content:
"Climate-resilient development pathways (CRDPs): Trajectories that strengthen sustainable development at multiple \r\nscales and efforts to eradicate poverty through equitable societal and systems transitions and transformations while \r\nreducing the threat of climate change through ambitious mitigation, adaptation and climate resilience. "


id: 95098ff425fbc34fa3e5e96a3151fbea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 23425
content:
"for at least several hours. The term aerosol, which includes both the \r particles and the suspending gas, is often used in this Special Report \r in its plural form to mean 'aerosol particles'. Aerosols may be of either \r natural or anthropogenic origin. Aerosols can influence climate in \r several ways: directly through scattering and absorbing radiation, and \r indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, modifying \r the optical properties and lifetime of clouds or upon deposition \r on snow or ice-covered surfaces thereby altering their albedo and \r contributing to climate feedback. Atmospheric aerosols, whether natural \r or anthropogenic, originate from two different pathways: emissions of \r primary particulate matter (PM), and formation of secondary PM from \r gaseous precursors. The bulk of aerosols are of natural origin. Some \r scientists use group labels that refer to the chemical composition, namely: \r [...]"


id: 32e05cc38fd302d43e11dc30fa7e4124
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 6217
content:
"[...] sea salt, organic carbon, black carbon (BC), mineral species (mainly \r desert dust), sulphate, nitrate and ammonium. These labels are, however, \r imperfect as aerosols combine particles to create complex mixtures. See \r also Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs)."


id: f8e82e5543c0a46ec4ae22faa23f7109
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41155
content:
"A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by \r using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability \r of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically \r decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal \r processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, \r volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the \r composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the United \r Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in \r its Article 1, defines climate change as: 'a change of climate which \r is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the \r composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to \r natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods'. \r The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change \r attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition \r [...]"


id: 4e1a6966baa6b15da9b200fcae6a0ab8
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11014
content:
"[...] and climate variability attributable to natural causes. See also Global \r warming, Ocean acidification (OA) and Detection and attribution."


id: c7c90941715db95230c057f84df3ca59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32455
content:
"There is a diversity of approaches for categorizing countries on the \r basis of their level of development, and for defining terms such as \r industrialised, developed, or developing. Several categorisations are \r used in this Special Report. (1) In the United Nations (UN) system, there \r is no established convention for the designation of developed and \r developing countries or areas. (2) The UN Statistics Division specifies \r developed and developing regions based on common practice. In \r addition, specific countries are designated as least developed countries, \r landlocked developing countries, small island developing states (SIDS), \r and transition economies. Many countries appear in more than one of \r these categories. (3) The World Bank uses income as the main criterion \r for classifying countries as low, lower middle, upper middle, and high \r income. (4) The UN Development Programme (UNDP) aggregates \r indicators for life expectancy, educational attainment, and income \r [...]"


id: ef6dbcbec94c591271e12a848e6b169b
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39497
content:
"[...] into a single composite Human Development Index (HDI) to classify \r countries as low, medium, high, or very high human development."


id: b573041831306d319b9b0174bddf7f1c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29151
content:
"The term El Nino was initially used to describe a warm-water \r current that periodically flows along the coast of Ecuador and \r Peru, disrupting the local fishery. It has since become identified \r with warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean east of the dateline. \r This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of a  global\u0002scale tropical and subtropical surface pressure pattern called the \r Southern Oscillation. This coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomenon, \r with preferred time scales of two to about seven years, is known \r as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is often measured by \r the surface pressure anomaly difference between Tahiti and Darwin \r and/or the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern \r equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO event, the prevailing trade \r winds weaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents \r such that the SSTs warm, further weakening the trade winds. This \r [...]"


id: cc9b24107063acad9c9e871e74d8f3f6
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33322
content:
"[...] phenomenon has a great impact on the wind, SST and precipitation \r patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout \r the Pacific region and in many other parts of the world, through \r global teleconnections. The cold phase of ENSO is called La Nina. \r See also Climate."


id: 317917e94824030426f7bebc4743bb52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5943
content:
"The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention \r on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty adopted in \r December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at the Third Session of the Confer\u0002ence of the Parties (COP3) to the UNFCCC. It contains legally binding \r commitments, in addition to those included in the UNFCCC. Coun\u0002tries included in Annex B of the Protocol (mostly OECD countries and \r countries with economies in transition) agreed to reduce their anthro\u0002pogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (carbon dioxide (CO2 ), \r methane (CH4 ), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), per\u0002fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)) by at least 5% \r below 1990 levels in the first commitment period (2008-2012). The \r Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005 and as of May \r 2018 had 192 Parties (191 States and the European Union). A second \r commitment period was agreed in December 2012 at COP18, known \r [...]"


id: 36bafc1c45f91d79a777d53f83ec02ea
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6856
content:
"[...] as the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, in which a new set of \r Parties committed to reduce GHG emissions by at least 18% below \r 1990 levels in the period from 2013 to 2020. However, as of May \r 2018, the Doha Amendment had not received sufficient ratifications \r to enter into force. See also Anthropogenic and Paris Agreement."


id: 6925337973ee0325f36d62bbc7b1321a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15766
content:
"Change to the height of sea level, both globally and locally (relative \r sea level change) at seasonal, annual, or longer time scales due to \r (1) a change in ocean volume as a result of a change in the mass \r of water in the ocean (e.g., due to melt of glaciers and ice sheets), \r (2) changes in ocean volume as a result of changes in ocean water \r density (e.g., expansion under warmer conditions), (3) changes in the \r shape of the ocean basins and changes in the Earth's gravitational \r and rotational fields, and (4) local subsidence or uplift of the land. \r Global mean sea level change resulting from change in the mass \r of the ocean is called barystatic. The amount of barystatic sea level \r change due to the addition or removal of a mass of water is called \r its sea level equivalent (SLE). Sea level changes, both globally and \r locally, resulting from changes in water density are called steric. \r Density changes induced by temperature changes only are called \r [...]"


id: 10f194432907a549cec597f1c354d5ed
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 172
content:
"[...] thermosteric, while density changes induced by salinity changes \r are called halosteric. Barystatic and steric sea level changes do not "


id: 8c6e42073ba7e269481db04882465309
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 21894
content:
"Ocean and cryosphere changes are pervasive and observed \r from high mountains, to the polar regions, to coasts, and into \r the deep ocean. AR5 assessed that the ocean is warming (0 to \r 700 m: virtually certain2; 700 to 2,000 m: likely), sea level is rising \r (high confidence), and ocean acidity is increasing (high confidence). \r Most glaciers are shrinking (high confidence), the Greenland and \r Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass (high confidence), sea ice extent in \r the Arctic is decreasing (very high confidence), Northern Hemisphere \r snow cover is decreasing (very high confidence), and permafrost \r temperatures are increasing (high confidence). Improvements \r since AR5 in observation systems, techniques, reconstructions and \r model developments, have advanced scientific characterisation \r and understanding of ocean and cryosphere change, including in \r previously identified areas of concern such as ice sheets and Atlantic \r [...]"


id: d5e0b455b0e7d1269626ef13a4e7c348
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"Ocean and cryosphere changes and risks by the end-of-century \r (2081-2100) will be larger under high greenhouse gas emission \r scenarios, compared with low emission scenarios (very high \r confidence). Projections and assessments of future climate, ocean \r and cryosphere changes in the Special Report on the Ocean and \r Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) are commonly based \r on coordinated climate model experiments from the Coupled Model \r Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced with Representative \r Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of future radiative forcing. Current \r emissions continue to grow at a rate consistent with a high emission \r future without effective climate change mitigation policies (referred \r to as RCP8.5). The SROCC assessment contrasts this high greenhouse \r gas emission future with a low greenhouse gas emission, high \r mitigation future (referred to as RCP2.6) that gives a two in three \r chance of limiting warming by the end of the century to less than 2o\r [...]"


id: a7402d45f93087d72d09ba3ad087c667
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Societies will be exposed, and challenged to adapt, to changes \r in the ocean and cryosphere even if current and future efforts \r to reduce greenhouse gas emissions keep global warming well \r below 2oC (very high confidence). Ocean and cryosphere-related \r mitigation and adaptation measures include options that address \r the causes of climate change, support biological and ecological \r adaptation, or enhance societal adaptation. Most ocean-based local \r mitigation and adaptation measures have limited effectiveness to \r mitigate climate change and reduce its consequences at the global \r scale, but are useful to implement because they address local risks, \r often have co-benefits such as biodiversity conservation, and have \r few adverse side effects. Effective mitigation at a global scale \r will reduce the need and cost of adaptation, and reduce the risks \r of surpassing limits to adaptation. Ocean-based carbon dioxide \r [...]"


id: d3d8ca6f67d9fc951fa351eb600cecbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] removal at the global scale has potentially large negative ecosystem \r consequences. {1.6.1, 1.6.2, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1}"


id: eb2ec0eb82fa673c00f8b643cc53aa8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"The scale and cross-boundary dimensions of changes in the \r ocean and cryosphere challenge the ability of communities, \r cultures and nations to respond effectively within existing \r governance frameworks (high confidence). Profound \r economic and institutional transformations are needed \r if climate-resilient development is to be achieved (high \r confidence). Changes in the ocean and cryosphere, the ecosystem \r services that they provide, the drivers of those changes, and the risks \r to marine, coastal, polar and mountain ecosystems, occur on spatial \r and temporal scales that may not align within existing governance \r structures and practices (medium confidence). This report highlights \r the requirements for transformative governance, international and \r transboundary cooperation, and greater empowerment of local \r communities in the governance of the ocean, coasts, and cryosphere \r in a changing climate. {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1, \r [...]"


id: ebbf2f3f8c9a948169f1eb95364c5668
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"All people depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere \r (see FAQ1.1). Coasts are the most densely populated areas on Earth. \r As of 2010, 28% of the global population (1.9 billion people) were \r living in areas less than 100 km from the coastline and less than \r 100 m above sea level, including 17 major cities which are each home \r to more than 5  million people (Kummu et al., 2016). Small Island \r Developing States are together home to around 65 million people \r (UN, 2015a). The low elevation coastal zone (land less than 10 m \r above sea level), where people and infrastructure are most exposed \r to coastal hazards, is currently home to around 11% of the global \r population (around 680 million people), and by 2050 the population \r in this zone is projected to grow to more than one billion under all \r Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Section  4.3.3.2; Merkens \r et al., 2016; O'Neill et al., 2017). In 2010, approximately 4 million \r [...]"


id: d4019514be31e89a7a4d0229a8dc4f3a
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content:
"[...] people lived in the Arctic (Section  3.5.1), and an increase of only \r 4% is projected for 2030 (Heleniak, 2014) compared to 16-23% \r for the global population increase (O'Neill et al., 2017). Almost 10% \r of the global population (around 670 million people) lived in high \r mountain regions in 2010, and by 2050 the population in these \r regions is expected to grow to between 736-844 million across the \r SSPs (Section 2.1). For people living in close contact with the ocean \r and cryosphere, these systems provide essential livelihoods, food \r security, well-being and cultural identity, but are also a source of \r hazards (Sections 1.5.1, 1.5.2). "


id: 8f42190e0d179bac2bb9b54d1242ff58
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22410
content:
"Pervasive ocean and cryosphere changes that are already being \r caused by human-induced climate change are observed from high \r mountains, to the polar regions, to coasts and into the deep reaches \r of the ocean. Changes by the end of this century are expected to \r be larger under high greenhouse gas emission futures compared \r with low-emission futures (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1), and \r inaction on reducing emissions will have large economic costs. \r If human impacts on the ocean continue unabated, declines in \r ocean health and services are projected to cost the global economy \r 428 billion USD yr-1 by 2050, and 1.979 trillion USD yr-1 by 2100. \r Alternatively, steps to reduce these impacts could save more than \r a trillion dollars USD yr-1 by 2100 (Ackerman, 2013). Similarly, sea \r level rise scenarios of 25 to 123 cm by 2100 without adaptation \r are expected to see 0.2-4.6% of the global population impacted by \r [...]"


id: c4156b9dfab638f9dc99a6fb5c0cefba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 31784
content:
"[...] coastal flooding annually, with average annual losses amounting \r to 0.3-9.3% of global GDP. Investment in adaptation reduces by 2 to \r 3 orders of magnitude the number of people flooded and the losses \r caused (Hinkel et al., 2014)."


id: b883122eeb262c7d0ac2962f102a3b0
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The United Nations 2030 SDGs (UN, 2015b) are all connected \r to varying extents with the ocean and cryosphere (see FAQ1.2). \r Climate action (SDG 13) would limit future ocean and cryosphere \r changes (high confidence; Cross-Chapter Box  1 in Chapter  1, \r Figure  1.5, Chapter  2 to 6), and would reduce risks to SDGs that \r are fundamentally linked to the ocean and cryosphere, including life \r below water, and clean water and sanitation. (Sections 2.4, 4.4, 5.4; \r Szabo et al., 2016; LeBlanc et al., 2017; Singh et al., 2018; Visbeck, \r 2018; Wymann von Dach et al., 2018; Kulonen, Accepted). Other \r goals for sustainable development depend on the services the ocean \r and cryosphere provide or are impacted by ocean and cryosphere \r change; including, life on land, health and wellbeing, eradicating \r poverty and hunger, economic growth, clean energy, infrastructure, \r and sustainable cities and communities. Progress on the other \r [...]"


id: c19ebe8afc7e69d26f9ccb113f9df745
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] SDGs (education, gender equality, reduced inequalities, responsible \r consumption, strong institutions, and partnerships for the goals) are \r important for reducing the vulnerability of people and communities \r to the risks of ocean and cryosphere changes (Section 1.5; 2.3), and \r for supporting mitigation and adaptation responses (Sections 1.6, 1.7 \r and 1.8.3; medium confidence). "


id: 64a0fe6613aa9b1dbcade5b85b6da8b9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14986
content:
"Even people living far from the ocean or cryosphere depend on these \r systems. Snow and glacier melt from high mountains helps to sustain \r the rivers that deliver water resources to downstream populations \r (Kaser et al., 2010; Sharma et al., 2019). In the Indus and Ganges river \r basins, for example, snow and glacier melt provides enough water to \r grow food crops to sustain a balanced diet for 38 million people, and \r supports the livelihoods of 129 million farmers (Biemans et al., 2019). \r The ocean and cryosphere regulate global climate and weather; the \r ocean is the primary source of rain and snowfall needed to sustain \r life on land, and uptake of heat and carbon into the ocean has so \r far limited the magnitude of anthropogenic warming experienced at \r the Earth's surface (Section 1.2). The ocean's biosphere is responsible \r for about half of the primary production on Earth, and around 17% \r of the non-grain protein in human diets is derived from the ocean \r [...]"


id: 618e523e05db757c394ca9d7f3405241
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content:
"[...] (FAO, 2018). Communities far from the coast can also be exposed \r to changes in the ocean through extreme weather events. Ocean \r and cryosphere changes can result in differing consequences and \r benefits on local to global scales; for example, declining sea ice in \r the Arctic is allowing access to shorter international shipping routes \r but restricting traditional sea ice based travel for Arctic communities. "


id: 1273d0cc88dcdacdef9f344895c391aa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 447
content:
"to change in a warming climate. SROCC assesses new knowledge \r since AR5 and provides an integrated approach across IPCC working \r groups I and II, linking physical changes with their ecological and \r human impacts, and the strategies to respond and adapt to future \r risks. It is one of three special reports being produced by the IPCC \r during its Sixth Assessment Cycle (in addition to the three working \r groups' main assessment reports). The concurrent IPCC Special \r Report on Climate Change and Land (released August 2019) links to \r SROCC where terrestrial environments and their habitability interact \r closely with the ocean or cryosphere, such as in mountain, Arctic, \r and coastal regions. SR15 concluded that human-induced warming \r will reach 1.5oC between 2030-2052 if it continues to increase at \r the current rate (high confidence), and that there are widespread \r benefits to human and natural systems of limiting warming to 1.5o\r C \r compared with 2o\r [...]"


id: 116c2af2076f2914f4334fe47bc36fec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 263
content:
"During an equilibrium (stable) climate state, the amount of incoming \r solar energy is balanced by an equal amount of outgoing radiation \r at the top of Earth's atmosphere (Hansen et al., 2011). At the Earth's \r surface energy from the Sun is transformed into various forms (heat, \r potential, latent, kinetic, and chemical), that drive weather systems \r in the atmosphere and currents in the ocean, fuel photosynthesis \r on land and in the ocean, and fundamentally determine the climate \r (Trenberth et al., 2014). The ocean has a large capacity to store \r and release heat, and the Earth's energy budget can be effectively \r monitored through the heat content of the ocean on time scales \r longer than one year (Palmer and McNeall, 2014; von Schuckmann \r et al., 2016; Cheng et al., 2018). The large heat capacity of the ocean \r leads to different characteristics of the ocean response to external \r forcings compared with the atmosphere (Sections 1.3, 1.4). The \r [...]"


id: 702a40fea1f060c144330512909936f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16989
content:
"[...] reflective properties of snow and ice also play an important role in \r regulating climate via the albedo effect. Increased amounts of solar \r energy are absorbed when snow or ice are replaced by less reflective \r land or ocean surfaces, resulting in a climate change feedback \r responsible for amplified changes."


id: 137f45da8c3833646b1ab9cebbc0f139
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 640
content:
"The formation of sea ice leads to the production of dense ocean \r water that contributes to the deep ocean circulation (Section 3.3.3.2). \r Paleoclimate evidence and modelling indicates that releases of large \r amounts of glacier and ice sheet melt water into the surface ocean \r can disrupt deep overturning circulation of the ocean, causing global \r climate impacts (Knutti et al., 2004; Golledge et al., 2019). Ice sheet \r melt water in the Antarctic may cause changes in surface ocean \r salinity, stratification and circulation, that feedback to generate \r further ocean-driven melting of marine-based ice sheets (Golledge \r et al., 2019) and promote sea ice formation (Purich et al., 2018). \r The cryosphere and ocean further link through the movement of \r biogeochemical nutrients. For example, iron accumulated in sea ice \r during winter is released to the ocean during the spring and summer \r melt, helping to fuel ocean productivity in the seasonal sea ice zone \r [...]"


id: 518d6f39a249e234fd057fda75b16e24
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vector_id: 11628
content:
"[...] (Tagliabue et al., 2017). Nutrient rich sediments delivered by glaciers \r further connect cryosphere processes to ocean productivity (Arrigo \r et al., 2017). "


id: 7e9f04d728dd077480d6a16172854912
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19432
content:
"'Detection and Attribution' assesses evidence for past changes in \r the ocean and cryosphere, relative to normal/reference-interval \r conditions (detection), and the extent to which these changes have \r been caused by anthropogenic climate change or by other factors \r (attribution) (Bindoff et al., 2013; Cramer et al., 2014; Knutson et al., \r 2017; Figure 1.1d). Reliable detection and attribution is fundamental \r to our understanding of the scientific basis of climate change (Hegerl \r et al., 2010). For example, the main attribution conclusion of the \r IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4), in other words, that 'most of the \r observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th \r century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic \r greenhouse gas concentrations', has had a strong impact on climate \r policy (Petersen, 2011). In AR5 this attribution statement was elevated \r to 'extremely likely' (Bindoff et al., 2013). Statistical approaches for \r [...]"


id: 5ec55c1d37d169b8b781667b037a2916
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content:
"[...] attribution often involve using contrasting forcing scenarios in climate \r model experiments to detect the forcing that best explains an observed \r change (Figure  1.1d). In addition to passing the statistical test, a \r successful attribution also requires a firm process understanding. \r Confident attribution remains challenging though, especially when \r there are multiple or confounding factors that influence the state \r of a system (Hegerl et al., 2010). Particular challenges to detection \r and attribution in the ocean and cryosphere include the often \r short observational records (Section  1.8.1.1, Figure  1.3), which are \r particularly confounding given the long adjustment time scales to \r anthropogenic forcing of many properties of interest."


id: 32bfd0970181df8ba612eee3ddc9db65
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6194
content:
"While some aspects of the ocean and cryosphere might respond \r in a linear (i.e.,  directly proportional) manner to a perturbation \r by some external forcing, this may change fundamentally when \r critical thresholds are reached. A very important example for such a \r threshold is the transition from frozen water to liquid water at around \r 0oC that can lead to rapid acceleration of ice-melt or permafrost \r thaw (e.g., Abram et al., 2013; Trusel et al., 2018). Such thresholds \r often act as tipping points, as they are associated with rapid and \r abrupt changes even when the underlying forcing changes gradually \r (Figure 1.1a, 1.1c). Tipping elements include, for example, the collapse \r of the ocean's large-scale overturning circulation in the Atlantic \r (Section 6.7), or the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet though \r a process called marine ice sheet instability (Cross-Chapter Box  8 \r in Chapter 3; Lenton et al., 2008). Potential ocean and cryosphere \r [...]"


id: 4c9af6fdac397d538aaad3fe87365046
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10743
content:
"[...] tipping elements form part of the scientific case for efforts to limit \r climate warming to well below 2o\r C (IPCC, 2018). "


id: 1800dbbfa7d50a9a6822269f7ce643eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1426
content:
"Extreme climate events (e.g., marine heatwaves or storm surges) push \r a system to near or beyond the ends of its normally observed range \r (Seneviratne et al., 2012; Figure 1.1b; Chapter 6;). Extremes can be \r very costly in terms of loss of life, ecosystem destruction, and economic \r damage. In a system affected by climate change, the recurrence and \r intensity of these extreme events can change much faster and have \r greater impacts than changes of the average system state (Easterling \r et al., 2000; Parmesan et al., 2000; Hughes et al., 2018). Of particular \r concern are 'compound events', when the joint probability of two or \r more properties of a system is extreme at the same time or closely \r connected in time and space (Cross-Chapter Box  5 in Chapter  1; \r Sections 4.3.4, 6.8). Such a compound event is given, for example, \r when marine heatwaves co-occur with very low nutrient levels in the \r ocean potentially resulting in extreme impacts (Bond et al., 2015). The \r [...]"


id: 210fca38826eb6928317bc83e20ae346
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3040
content:
"[...] interconnectedness of the ocean and cryosphere (Section 1.2.2) can \r also lead to cascading effects where changes in one element trigger \r secondary changes in completely different but connected elements \r of the systems, including its socioeconomic aspects. (Figure 1.1e). An \r example is the large change in ocean productivity triggered by the \r changes in circulation and iron inputs induced by the large outflow of \r melt waters from Greenland (Kanna et al., 2018). New methodologies \r for attributing extreme events and the risks they bring to climate \r change have emerged since AR5 (Trenberth et al., 2015; Stott et al., \r 2016; Kirchmeier-Young et al., 2017; Otto, 2017), especially also for \r the attribution of individual events through an assessment of the \r fraction of attributable risk (Figure 1.1f)."


id: 89d5c0d5ebd49b48e516669cee78c4e8
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21416
content:
"Anthropogenically forced change occurs against a backdrop of \r substantial natural variability (Figure 1.1b). The anthropogenic signal \r is already detectable in global surface air temperature and several \r other climate variables, including ocean temperature and salinity \r (IPCC, 2014), but short observational records and large year-to\u0002year variability mean that formal detection is not yet the case for \r many expected ocean and cryosphere changes (Jones et al., 2016). \r 'Time of Emergence' refers to the time when anthropogenic change \r signals emerge from the background noise of natural variability in a \r pre-defined reference period Hawkins and Sutton, 2012; (Figure 1.1b; \r Section 5.2, Box 5.1). For some variables, (e.g., for those associated \r with ocean acidification), the current signals emerge from this natural \r variability within a few decades, whereas for others, such as primary \r production and expected Antarctic-wide sea ice decline, the signal \r [...]"


id: 551bb811fd5adff38e5476a897610db8
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12247
content:
"[...] may not emerge for many more decades even under high emission \r scenarios (Collins et al., 2013; Keller et al., 2014; Rodgers et al., 2015; \r Frolicher et al., 2016; Jones et al., 2016). "


id: 5de4b925fcff45bcb7592196702b771b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13819
content:
"Increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause heat uptake \r in the Earth system (Section 1.2) and as reported since 1970, there \r is high confidence3 that the majority (more than 90%) of the extra \r thermal energy in the Earth's system is stored in the global ocean \r (IPCC, 2013). Mean ocean surface temperature has increased since the \r 1970s at a rate of 0.11 (0.09-0.13)oC per decade (high confidence), \r and forms part of a long-term warming of the surface ocean since \r the mid-19th century. The upper ocean (0-700 m, virtually certain) \r and intermediate ocean (700 to 2,000 m, likely) have warmed since \r the 1970s. Ocean heat uptake has continued unabated since AR5 \r (Sections 3.2.1.2.1, 5.2), increasing the risk of marine heat waves and \r other extreme events (Section 6.4). During the 21st century, ocean \r warming is projected to continue even if anthropogenic greenhouse \r gas emissions cease (Sections 1.3, 5.2). The global water cycle has \r [...]"


id: 72b75592ddfe3f00ba5ece53a575e9e
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17426
content:
"[...] been altered, resulting in substantial regional changes in sea surface \r salinity (high confidence; Rhein et al., 2013), which is expected to \r continue in the future (Sections 5.2.2, 6.3, 6.5). "


id: c8f151ceabdf5d5b7505bef54259a486
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32673
content:
"Since the onset of the industrial revolution, human activities have \r had a strong impact on the climate system, including the ocean \r and cryosphere. Human activities have altered the external forcings \r acting on Earth's climate (Myhre et al., 2013) by changes in land \r use (albedo), and changes in atmospheric aerosols (e.g.,  soot) \r from the burning of biomass and fossil fuels. Most significantly, \r human activities have led to an accumulation of greenhouse gases \r (including CO2) in the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil \r fuels, cement production, agriculture and land use change. In 2016, \r the global average atmospheric CO2 concentration crossed 400 parts \r per million, a level Earth's atmosphere did not experience for at least \r the past 800,000 years and possibly much longer (Luthi et al., 2008; \r Fischer et al., 2018). These anthropogenic forcings have not only \r warmed the ocean and begun to melt the cryosphere, but have also \r [...]"


id: 8bf18ed0de8eda8ea1b7ea804589202e
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vector_id: 21791
content:
"[...] led to widespread biogeochemical changes driven by the oceanic \r uptake of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere (IPCC, 2013)."


id: 4acee3a23cb9e982199c74557793bd2f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10403
content:
"It is now nearly three decades since the first assessment report of \r the IPCC, and over that time evidence and confidence in observed \r and projected ocean and cryosphere changes have grown (very \r high confidence; Table SM1.1). Confidence in climate warming \r and its anthropogenic causes has increased across assessment \r cycles; robust detection was not yet possible in 1990, but has been \r characterised as unequivocal since AR4 in 2007. Projections of \r near-term warming rates in early reports have been realised over \r the subsequent decades, while projections have tended to err on the \r side of caution for sea level rise and ocean heat uptake that have \r developed faster than predicted (Brysse et al., 2013; Section  4.2, \r 5.2). Areas of concern in early reports which were expected but \r not observable are now emerging. The expected acceleration of sea \r level rise is now observed with high confidence (Section 4.2). There \r [...]"


id: 66622a91f75b840a28bb0965ae4b78e1
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vector_id: 15276
content:
"[...] is emerging evidence in sustained observations and from long-term \r palaeoclimate reconstructions for the expected slow-down of AMOC \r (medium confidence), although this remains to be properly attributed \r (Section 6.7). Significant sea level rise contributions from Antarctic \r ice sheet mass loss (very high confidence), which earlier reports \r did not expect to manifest this century, are already being observed \r (Section  3.3.1). Other newly emergent characteristics of ocean \r and cryosphere change (e.g.,  marine heat waves; Section  6.4) are \r assessed for the first time in SROCC. "


id: 49cf26bc37fa5247fd7760cc031895af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10221
content:
"Assessing the future risks and opportunities that climate change will bring for the ocean and cryosphere, and for their dependent \r ecosystems and human communities, is a main objective of this report. However, the future is inherently uncertain. A well-established \r methodological approach that the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) report uses to assess\r the future under these uncertainties is through scenario analysis (Kainuma et al., 2018). The ultimate physical driver of the ocean and \r cryosphere changes that SROCC assesses are greenhouse gas emissions, while the exposure to hazards and the future risks to natural \r and human systems are also shaped social, economic and governance factors (Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1; Section 1.5). This\r Cross-Chapter Box introduces the main scenarios that are used in the SROCC assessment. Examples of key climate change indicators \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] in the atmosphere and ocean projected under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios are also provided (Table CB1.1)."


id: f23aa44ec18362a3330f268882266df1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Four RCPs were used for projections of the future climate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., \r 2012). They are identified by their approximate anthropogenic radiative forcing (in W m-2, relative to 1750) by 2100: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, \r RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 (Figure SM1.1). RCP8.5 is a high greenhouse gas emission scenario without effective climate change mitigation \r policies, leading to continued and sustained growth in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Riahi et al., 2011). RCP2.6 \r represents a low greenhouse gas emission, high mitigation future that gives a two in three chance of limiting global atmospheric \r surface warming to below 2o\r C by the end of the century (van Vuuren et al., 2011b; Collins et al., 2013; Allen et al., 2018). Achieving the \r RCP2.6 pathway would require implementation of negative emissions technologies at a not-yet-proven scale to remove greenhouse \r [...]"


id: 8984c776ecedb5b0304faca885404545
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] gases from the air, in addition to other mitigation strategies such as energy from sustainable sources and existing nature-based \r strategies (Gasser et al., 2015; Sanderson et al., 2016; Royal Society, 2018; National Academies of Sciences, 2019). An even more \r stringent RCP1.9 pathway is considered most compatible with limiting global warming to below 1.5o\r C, called a 1.5oC-consistent \r pathway in the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC (SR15; O'Neill et al., 2016; IPCC, 2018), and will be assessed in the IPCC \r 6th Assessment Report (AR6) using projections of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Global fossil \r CO2 emissions rose more than 2% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2017, after a temporary slowdown in emissions from 2014-2016. Current \r emissions continue to grow in line with the RCP8.5 trajectory (Peters et al., 2012; Le Quere et al., 2018)."


id: ff46111837d9e5bd1a9fc404476f2a98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) complement the RCPs with varying socioeconomic challenges to adaptation and mitigation \r (e.g., population, economic growth, education, urbanisation and the rate of technological development; O'Neill et al., 2017). The SSPs \r describe five alternative socioeconomic futures comprising: sustainable development (SSP1), middle-of-the-road development (SSP2), \r regional rivalry (SSP3), inequality (SSP4), and fossil-fuelled development (SSP5; Figure SM1.1; Kriegler et al., 2016; Riahi et al., 2017). \r The RCPs set plausible pathways for greenhouse gas concentrations and the climate changes that could occur, and the SSPs set the \r stage on which reductions in emissions will or will not be achieved within the context of the underlying socioeconomic characteristics \r and shared policy assumptions of that world. The combination of SSP-based socioeconomic scenarios and RCP-based climate \r [...]"


id: f96238a253a6074248153a256411a1f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] projections provides an integrative frame for climate impact and policy analysis. The SSPs will be included in the CMIP6 simulations to \r be assessed in AR6 (O'Neill et al., 2016). In SROCC, the SSPs are used only for contextualising estimates from the literature on varying \r future populations in regions exposed to ocean and cryosphere changes."


id: c86b9169c100f2f906245e4f5a952457
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"A baseline provides a reference period from which changes can be evaluated. In the context of anthropogenic climate change, the\r baseline should ideally approximate the 'pre-industrial' conditions before significant human influences on the climate began. The IPCC \r 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and SR15 (Allen et al., 2018) use 1850-1900 as the pre-industrial baseline for assessing historical and \r future climate change. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and global surface temperatures had already begun to rise in this \r interval from early industrialisation (Abram et al., 2016; Hawkins et al., 2017; Schurer et al., 2017). However, the scarcity of reliable \r climate observations represents a major challenge for quantifying earlier pre-industrial states (Hawkins et al., 2017). To maintain \r consistency across IPCC reports, the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline is used wherever possible in SROCC, recognising that this is a \r [...]"


id: 3fec793516d7a6f6c3e23969ce7b7716
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content:
"[...] compromise between data coverage and representativeness of typical pre-industrial conditions."


id: ea6be20322dd5289d88a117972852d8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In SROCC, the 1986-2005 reference interval used in AR5 is referred to as the recent past, and a 2006-2015 reference is used for present \r day, consistent with SR15 (Allen et al., 2018). The 2006-2015 reference interval incorporates near-global upper ocean data coverage \r and reasonably comprehensive remote-sensing cryosphere data (Section 1.8.1), and aligns this report with a more current reference \r than the 1986-2005 reference adopted by AR5. This 10-year present day period is short relative to natural variability. However, at this \r decadal scale the bias in the present day interval due to natural variability is generally small compared to differences between present \r day conditions and the pre-industrial baseline. There is also no indication of global average surface temperature in either 1986-2005 or \r 2006-2015 being substantially biased by short-term variability (Allen et al., 2018), consistent with the AR5 finding that each of the last \r [...]"


id: 837b8871c9f00bb8282131e439d7dadc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20272
content:
"[...] three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (IPCC, 2013)."


id: 287c540219b65c838a91fbf3744f2a13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The ocean and cryosphere are unique systems that have intrinsic \r value, including the ecosystems and biodiversity they support. \r Frameworks of Ecosystem Services and Nature's Contributions to \r People are both used within SROCC to assess the impacts of changes \r in the ocean and cryosphere on humans directly, and through changes \r to the ecosystems that support human life and civilisations (Sections \r 2.3, 3.4.3.2, 4.3.3.5, 5.4, 6.4, 6.5, 6.8). The Millennium Ecosystem \r Assessment (MEA, 2005) established a conceptual Ecosystem \r Services framework between biodiversity, human well-being, and \r drivers of change. This framework highlights that natural systems \r provide vital life-support services to humans and the planet, including \r direct material services (e.g.,  food, timber), non-material services \r (e.g., cultural continuity, health), and many services that regulate \r environmental status (e.g., soil formation, water purification). This \r [...]"


id: b757b80817983b58d5219394347919b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] framework supports decision-making by quantifying benefits for \r valuation and trade-off analyses. The Ecosystem Services framework \r has been challenged as monetising the relationships of people with \r nature, and undervaluing small-scale livelihoods, cultural values and \r other considerations that contribute little to global commerce (Diaz \r et al., 2018). More recent frameworks, such as Nature's Contributions \r to People (Diaz et al., 2018), used in the Intergovernmental Platform \r on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services assessments (IPBES), aim to \r better encompass the non-commercial ways that nature contributes \r to human quality of life. "


id: 962b4a55dec3b3ac975a704899bbecef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23615
content:
"There are limits to adaptation, which include, for example, physical, ecological, technological, economic, political, institutional, \r psychological and/or socio-cultural aspects (medium evidence, high agreement) (Dow et al., 2013; Barnett et al., 2014; Klein et al., \r 2014). For example, the ability to adapt to sea level rise depends, in part, on the elevation of the low-lying islands and coasts in \r question, but also on the capacity to successfully negotiate protection or relocation measures socially and politically (Cross-Chapter \r Box 9, also see Section 6.4.3 for a wider overview). Limits to adaptation are sometimes considered as something different from \r barriers to adaptation. Barriers can in principle be overcome if adaptive capacity is available (e.g., where funding is made available), \r even though overcoming barriers is often hard in reality, particularly for resource-poor communities and countries (high confidence; \r [...]"


id: 1462788ef04b815162c6b977eb4fdf5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 808
content:
"[...] Section 4.4.3). Limits to adaptation are reached when adaptation no longer allows an actor or ecosystem to secure valued objectives \r or key functions from intolerable risks (Section 4.4.2; Dow et al., 2013). Defining tolerable risks and key system functions is, therefore, \r of central importance for the assessment of limits to adaptation."


id: ec986c841fbd2db21f2d2d571adeb548
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38985
content:
"Addressing climate change-related risk, impacts (including extreme events and shocks) and trade-offs together with shaping the \r trajectories of social and ecological systems is facilitated by considering resilience (Biggs et al., 2012; Quinlan et al., 2016). In SROCC, \r resilience is understood as the capacity of interconnected social, economic and ecological systems to cope with disturbances by\r reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, structure, and identity (Walker et al., 2004). Resilience may be considered \r as a positive attribute of a system and an aspirational goal when it contributes to the capacity for adaptation and learning without \r changing the structure, function, and identity of the system (Walker et al., 2004; Steiner, 2015). Alternately, resilience may be used \r descriptively as a system property that is neither good nor bad (Walker et al., 2004; Chapin et al., 2009; Weichselgartner and Kelman, \r [...]"


id: 1c31009fb13ab128ad0ba0160ba30992
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] 2014). For example, a system can be highly resilient in keeping its unfavoured attributes, such as poverty or institutional rigidity \r (Carpenter and Brock, 2008). Critics of the resilience concept warn that the application of resilience to social systems is problematic \r when the responsibility for resilience building is shifted onto the shoulders of vulnerable and resource-poor populations (e.g., Chandler, \r 2013; Reid, 2013; Rigg and Oven, 2015; Tierney, 2015; Olsson et al., 2017)."


id: 24f4f2f58999b64aa1cf6df1791e809b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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vector_id: 3695
content:
"CRDPs are a relatively new concept to describe climate change mitigation and adaptation trajectories that strengthen sustainable \r development and efforts to eradicate poverty and reduce inequalities while promoting fair and cross-scalar adaptation to, and \r resilience in, a changing climate (Kainuma et al., 2018; Roy et al., 2018). CRDPs are increasingly being explored as an approach \r for combining scientific assessments, stakeholder participation, and forward-looking development planning, acknowledging that \r pursuing CRDP is not only a technical challenge of risk management but also a social and political process (Roy et al., 2018). Adaptive \r decision-making over time is key to CRDPs (Haasnoot et al., 2013; Wise et al., 2014; Fazey et al., 2016; Ramm et al., 2017; Bloemen \r et al., 2018; Lawrence et al., 2018). CRDPs accommodate both the interacting cultural, social, and ecosystem factors that influence \r [...]"


id: 5023c0574dc4e8cff30bd1b28018fcf7
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content:
"[...] multi-stakeholder decision making processes, and the overall sustainability of adaptation measures. "


id: 3e5abcd8f1bc68680b3f1934121c0dcf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8148
content:
"Adequate climate change mitigation and adaptation allows for opportunities for sustainable development pathways and the options for \r resilience building. CRDPs involve series of mitigation and adaptation choices over time, balancing short-term and long-term goals \r and accommodating newly available knowledge (Denton et al., 2014). The CRDPs approach has been successfully used, for example, \r in urban, remote and disadvantaged communities, and can showcase the potential to counter maladaptive choices (e.g., Barnett et al., \r 2014; Butler et al., 2014; Maru et al., 2014). CRDPs aim to establish narratives of hope and opportunity that can extend beyond risk \r reduction and coping (Amundsen et al., 2018). Although climate change impacts on the ocean and cryosphere elicit many emotions,\r including fear, anger, despair and apathy (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013; Cunsolo and Landman, 2017; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018), narratives \r [...]"


id: c645aadb4b54acbb0fd19c3f883251ea
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content:
"[...] of hope are critical in provoking motivation, creative thinking and behavioural changes in response to climate change (Myers et al., \r 2012; Smith and Leiserowitz, 2014; Feldman and Hart, 2016; Feldman and Hart, 2018; Prescott and Logan, 2018; Section 1.8.3)."


id: 73fbca6e6a55e1a0a5ee8c3eff059943
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Much of the adaptation and resilience literature published since AR5 highlights the need for transformations that enable effective climate \r change mitigation (most notably, to decarbonise the economy) (Riahi et al., 2017), and support adaptation (e.g., Pelling et al., 2015; \r Few et al., 2017). Transformation becomes particularly relevant when existing mitigation and adaptation practices cannot reduce risks \r and impacts to an acceptable level. Transformative adaptation, therefore, involves fundamental modifications of policies, policy making \r processes, institutions, human behaviour and cultural values (Pelling et al., 2015; Solecki et al., 2017). Successful transformation \r requires attention to conditions that allow for such changes, including timing (e.g., windows of opportunity), social readiness (e.g., \r some level of willingness) and resources to act (e.g., trust, human skill and financial resources; Kofinas et al., 2013; Moore et al., 2014). \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] Examples related to SROCC include shifting from a paradigm of protection reliant on seawalls to living with saltwater as a response \r to coastal flooding in rural areas (Renaud et al., 2015) or involving fundamental risk management changes in coastal megacities,\r including retreat (Solecki et al., 2017). Transformation in changing ocean and cryosphere contexts can be fostered by transdisciplinary \r collaboration between actors in science, government, the private sector, civil society and affected communities (Padmanabhan, 2017; \r Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1; Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1)."


id: 490de93b710843cfc202cefad63dd1f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Changes in the ocean and cryosphere bring hazards that affect the \r health, wellbeing, safety and security of populations in coastal, \r mountain and polar environments (Section 2.3.5, 3.4.3, 4.3.2). Some \r impacts are direct, such as sea level rise or coastal erosion that can \r displace coastal residents (4.3.2.3, 4.4.2.6, Box 4.1). Other effects are \r indirect; for example, rising ocean temperatures have led to increases \r in maximum wind speed and rainfall rates in tropical cyclones \r (Section 6.3), creating hazards with severe consequences for natural \r and human systems (Sections 4.3, 6.2, 6.3, 6.8). The multiple category \r 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2017 caused the loss of over 3300 lives \r and more than 350 billion USD in economic damages (Cross-Chapter \r Box 9; Andrade et al., 2018; Murakami et al., 2018; NOAA, 2018). In \r mountain regions, glacial lake outburst floods have caused severe \r impacts on lives, livelihoods and infrastructure that often extend \r [...]"


id: 7165c8636b40f3a2a0250d20693453cb
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] beyond the directly affected areas (Section 2.3.2 and 6.2.2). Some \r hazards related to ocean and cryosphere change involve abrupt \r and irreversible changes (Section  1.3), which generate sometimes \r unpredictable risks, and multiple hazards can coincide to greatly \r elevate the total risk (Section 6.8.2). For example, combinations of \r thawing permafrost, sea level rise, loss of sea ice, ocean surface waves \r and extreme weather events (Thomson and Rogers, 2014; Ford et al., \r 2017) have damaged Arctic infrastructure (e.g.,  buildings, roads) \r (AMAP, 2015; AMAP, 2017), impacted reindeer husbandry livelihoods \r for Sami and other Arctic Indigenous peoples and impeded access to \r hunting grounds, other communities and travel routes fundamental \r to the livelihoods, food security and wellbeing of Inuit and other \r Northern cultures (Section  3.4.3). In some Arctic regions, tipping \r points may have already been reached such that adaptive practices \r [...]"


id: 8d44bf511fdd7c2e24698574e6b562e6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22037
content:
"Exposure to climate change risk exists for virtually all coastal \r organisms, habitats and ecosystems (Section 5.2), through processes \r such as inundation and salinisation (Section 4.3), ocean acidification \r and deoxygenation (Sections 3.2.3, 5.2.3), increasing marine \r heatwaves (Section 6.4.1.2), and increases in harmful algal blooms \r and invasive species (Glibert et al., 2014; Gobler et al., 2017; Townhill \r et al., 2017; Box  5.3). Aggregate impacts of multiple drivers are \r dramatically altering ecosystem structure and function in the coastal \r and open ocean (Boyd et al., 2015; Deutsch et al., 2015; Przeslawski \r et al., 2015), such as coral reefs under increasing pressure from both \r rising ocean temperature and acidification (Section 5.3.4). Increasing \r exposure to climate change hazards in open ocean natural systems \r includes ocean acidification (O'Neill et al., 2017; Section  5.2.3), \r changes in ocean ventilation, deoxygenation (Shepherd et al., 2017; \r [...]"


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content:
"[...] Breitburg et al., 2018; Section 5.2.2.4), increased cyclone and flood \r risk (Section 6.3.3) and an increase in extreme El Nino and La Nina \r events (Section. 6.5.1). Heat content is rapidly increasing within the \r ocean (Section  5.2.2) and marine heat waves are becoming more \r frequent across the world ocean (Section 6.4.1)."


id: 8cf420ea74b0b1bf19f3b7400080f458
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21986
content:
"Climate change impacts on the ocean and cryosphere can also \r present opportunities, in at least the near- and medium-term. For \r example, in Nepal warming of high mountain environments and \r accelerated melting of snow and ice have extended the growing \r season and crop yields in some regions (Section  2.3; Gaire et al., \r 2015; Merrey et al., 2018), while tourism and shipping has increased \r in the Arctic with loss of sea ice (Section  3.2.4). Moreover, rising \r ocean temperatures redistribute the global fish population, allowing \r new fishing opportunities while reducing some established fisheries \r (Bell et al., 2011; Fenichel et al., 2016; Section 5.4). To gain from new \r opportunities, while also avoiding or mitigating new or increasing \r hazards, it is necessary to be aware of trade-offs between risks and \r benefits to understand who is and is not benefiting. For example, \r opportunities can involve trade-offs with mitigation and/or SDGs \r [...]"


id: 4ea47355d5e5f9d6183942d944fb7001
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content:
"[...] (Section 3.5.2), and the balance of economic costs and benefits may \r differ substantially between the near-term and long-term future \r (Section 5.4.2.2). "


id: 7e21fb967504921ef339dfb31396d820
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19365
content:
"People who live close to the ocean and/or cryosphere, or depend \r directly on their resources for livelihoods, are particularly exposed to \r climate change impacts and hazards (very high confidence) (Barange \r et al., 2014; Romero-Lankao et al., 2014; AMAP, 2015). These \r exposures can result in infrastructure damage and failure (Sections \r 2.3.1.3, 3.4.3, 3.5., 4.3.2), loss of habitability (Sections 2.3.7, 3.4.3, \r 3.5, 4.3.3), changes in air quality (Section  6.5.2), proliferation of \r disease vectors (Sections 3.4.3.2.2, 5.4.2.1.1), increased morbidity \r and mortality due to injury, infectious disease, heat stress, and mental \r health and wellness challenges (Section 3.4.3.3), compromised food \r and water security (Sections 2.3.1, 3.4.3.3, 4.3.3.6, 5.4.2.1, 6.8.4), \r degradation of ecosystem services (Sections 2.3.1.2, 2.3.3.4, 4.3.3, \r 5.4.1, 6.4.2.3), economic and non-economic impacts due to reduced \r production and social network system disruption (Section  2.3.7), \r [...]"


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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1451
content:
"[...] conflict (Sections 2.3.1.14, 3.5) and widespread human migration \r (Sections 2.3.7, 4.4.3.5; Oppenheimer et al., 2014; van Ruijven et al., \r 2014; AMAP, 2015; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018). "


id: 4f079fffe5b44d9c68f973236f467ebf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11191
content:
"Direct and indirect risks to natural systems are influenced by vulnerability \r to climate change as well as deterioration of ecosystem services. For \r example, about half of species assessed on the northeast United States \r continental shelf exhibited high to very high climate vulnerability due \r to temperature preferences and changes in habitat space (Hare et al., \r 2016), with corresponding northward range shifts for many species \r (Kleisner et al., 2017) and increased vulnerability for organisms or \r ecosystems unable to migrate or evolve at the rate required to adapt \r to ocean and cryosphere changes (Miller et al., 2018). Non-climatic \r pressures also magnify the vulnerability of ocean and cryosphere \r ecosystems to climate-related changes, such as overfishing, coastal \r development, and pollution, including plastic pollution (Halpern et al., \r 2008; Halpern et al., 2015; IPBES, 2018a; IPBES, 2018b; IPBES, 2018c; \r [...]"


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vector_id: 29853
content:
"[...] IPBES, 2018d). Conventional (fossil fuel-based) plastics produced in \r 2015 accounted for 3.8% of global CO2 emissions and could reach up \r to 15% by 2050 (Zheng and Suh, 2019). "


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"Effective and ambitious mitigation of climate change would be required \r to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015; \r IPCC, 2018). Similarly, effective and ambitious adaptation to climate \r change impacts on the ocean and cryosphere is necessary to enable \r CRDPs that minimise residual risk, and loss and damage (very high \r confidence; Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1; IPCC, 2018). Mitigation\r refers to human actions to limit climate change by reducing the \r emissions and enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases. Adaptation\r refers to processes of adjustment by natural or human systems to actual \r or expected climate and its effects, intended to moderate harm or \r exploit beneficial opportunities. The presidency of the 23rd Conference \r Of the Parties of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate \r Change (UNFCCC) introduced the oceans pathway into the climate \r solution space, acknowledging both the importance of the ocean in \r [...]"


id: ddbde3d192b864bae562cba50cb14174
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] the climate system and that ocean commitments for adaptation and \r mitigation are available through Nationally Determined Contributions \r under the UNFCCC (Gallo et al., 2017)."


id: 8593d0ddb2c05b2b0934a37cf19b39c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20641
content:
"AR5 and SR15 have highlighted the importance of evolutionary \r adaptation as a component of how populations adapt to climate \r change pressures (e.g.,  Portner et al., 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg \r et al., 2018). Acclimatisation (variation in morphology, physiology or \r behaviour) can result from changes in gene expression but does not \r involve change in the underlying DNA sequence. Responses related \r to acclimatisation can occur both within single generations and over \r several generations. In contrast, evolution requires changes in the \r genetic composition of a population over multiple generations; for \r example, by differential survival or fecundity of different genotypes \r (Sunday et al., 2014). Adaptive evolution is the subset of evolution \r attributable to natural selection, and natural selection may lead to \r populations becoming more fit (Sunday et al., 2014) or extend the \r range of environments where populations persist (van Oppen et al., \r [...]"


id: 55fc8086286ef1bd58280379daca14d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] 2015). The efficacy of natural selection is affected by population size \r (Charlesworth, 2009), standing genetic variation, the ability of a \r population to generate novel genetic variation, migration rates and \r the frequency of genetic recombination (Rice, 2002). Many studies \r have shown evolution of traits within and across life stages of \r populations (Pespeni et al., 2013; Hinners et al., 2017), but there are \r fewer studies on how evolutionary change can impact ecosystem or \r community function, and whether trait evolution is stable (Schaum \r and Collins, 2014). Although acclimatisation and evolutionary \r adaptation are separate processes, they influence each other, and \r both adaptive and maladaptive variation of traits can facilitate \r evolution (Schaum and Collins, 2014; Ghalambor et al., 2015). \r Natural evolutionary adaptation may be challenged by the speed and \r magnitude of current ocean and cryosphere changes, but emerging \r [...]"


id: cb3c1b504c048f7d0403541404249bc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"[...] studies investigate how human actions may assist evolutionary \r adaptation and thereby possibly enhance the resilience of natural "


id: 8e0adef16466760f701a858c94682b15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Since AR5, transformational adaptation (i.e., the need for fundamental \r changes in private and public institutions and flexible decision-making \r processes to face climate change consequences) has been \r increasingly studied (Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1). The recent \r literature documents how societies, institutions, and/or individuals \r increasingly assume a readiness to engage in transformative change, \r via their acceptance and promotion of fundamental alterations \r in natural or human systems (Klinsky et al., 2016). People living in \r and near coastal, mountain and polar environments often pioneer \r these types of transformations, since they are at the forefront of \r ocean and cryosphere change (e.g., Solecki et al., 2017). Community \r led and indigenous led adaptation research continues to burgeon \r (Ayers and Forsyth, 2009; David-Chavez and Gavin, 2018), especially \r in many mountain (Section  2.3.2.3), Arctic (Section  3.5), and \r [...]"


id: fb5fe08e4983d19e58bd1caccaa9dfd6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] coastal (Section  4.4.4.4, 4.4.5.4, Cross-Chapter Box  9) areas, \r and demonstrate potential for enabling transformational adaptation \r (Dodman and Mitlin, 2013; Chung Tiam Fook, 2017). Similarly, the \r concepts of scenario planning and 'adaptation pathway' design \r have expanded since AR5, especially in the context of development \r planning for coastal and delta regions (Section  4.4, Cross-Chapter \r Box 9; Wise et al., 2014; Maier et al., 2016; Bloemen et al., 2018; \r Flynn et al., 2018; Frame et al., 2018; Lawrence et al., 2018)."


id: 14ca0f55cf5c93864d02099088aa0867
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"This Cross-Chapter Box outlines governance and associated institutional challenges and emerging solutions relevant to the ocean, \r coasts and cryosphere in a changing climate. It illustrates these through three cases: (Case 1) multi-level interactions in Ocean and \r Arctic governance; (Case 2) mountain governance; and (Case 3) coastal risk governance. Governance refers to how political, social, \r economic and environmental systems and their interactions are governed or 'steered' by establishing and modifying institutional and \r organisational arrangements which regulate social processes, mitigate conflicts and realise mutual gains (North, 1990; Pierre and \r Peters, 2000; Paavola, 2007). Institutions are formal and informal rules and norms, constructed and held in common by social actors \r that guide, constrain and shape human interactions (North, 1990; Ostrom, 2005). Formal institutions include constitutions, laws, \r [...]"


id: 862d24b865c37f8f2f51a9f2d94d380e
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"[...] policies and contracts, while informal institutions include customs, social norms and taboos. Both administrative or state government \r structures and indigenous or traditional governance structures govern the ocean, coasts and cryosphere."


id: 5697265f2a5c88800c7e503514dd5763
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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"regions (Section 2.4), focusing on the need for transboundary cooperation to support water governance and mitigate conflict. Chapter 3 \r explores how polar governance system facilitate building resilient pathways, knowledge co-production, social learning, adaptation \r and power-sharing with Indigenous Peoples at the regional level. This would help in increasing international cooperation in multi-level \r governance arenas to strengthen responses supporting adaptation in socio-ecological systems (Section 3.5.4). Chapter 4 illustrates \r how sea level rise governance attempts to address conflicting interests in coastal development, risk management and adaptation with \r a diversity of governance contexts and degrees of community participation, with a focus on equity concerns and inevitable trade-offs \r (Section 4.4). Chapter 5 includes a review of existing international legal regimes for addressing ocean warming, acidification and \r [...]"


id: 134816413f74aa5325656199aae4cbcb
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content:
"[...] deoxygenation impacts on social-ecological systems and considers ways to facilitate appropriate responses to ocean change (Sections \r 5.4, 5.5). Chapter 6 explores the issues of credibility, trust, and reliability in government that arise from promoting 'paying the costs of \r preparedness and prevention' as an alternative to 'bearing the costs of loss and damage' (Section 6.9)."


id: 125786bc8e47a621ed489a3416391add
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Climate change challenges existing governance arrangements in a variety of ways. First, there are complex interconnections between \r climate change and other processes that influence the ocean, coasts and cryosphere, making it difficult to untangle climate governance \r from other governance efforts. Second, the time frames for societal decision-making and government terms are mismatched with \r the long-term commitment of climate change. Third, governance choices have to be made in the face of uncertainty about the \r rate and scale of change that will occur in the medium to long-term (Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1). Lastly, climate change \r progressively alters the environment and hence requires continual innovation and adjustment of governance arrangements (Bisaro \r and Hinkel, 2016; Roggero et al., 2018). Novel transboundary interactions and conflicts are emerging as well as new multi-level \r [...]"


id: f92ecfdd413b63518a290633c279078e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41203
content:
"[...] governance structures for international and regional cooperation, strengthening shared decision-making among States and other \r actors (Case 1). The prospects of 'disappearing states', glacier retreat and increasing water scarcity are resulting in States redefining \r complex water-sharing agreements (Case 2). Coastal risk is escalating, which may require participatory governance responses and the \r co-production of knowledge at the local scale (Case 3; see also Cross-Chapter Box 9)."


id: 44dd36f3ff8ab16f16d53f2877347f83
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9342
content:
"Case Study 1 - Multi-level Interactions and Synergies in Governance. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the \r changing Arctic: Climate-change induced sea level rise (Section 4.2), could shift the boundaries and territory of some coastal states, \r changing the areas where their coastal rights are applied under UNCLOS. In extreme cases, inundation from sea level rise might \r lead to loss of territory and sovereignty, the disappearance of islands and the loss of international maritime jurisdiction subject to \r maritime claim. These challenges have limited opportunities for recourse in international law and it remains unclear what adequate \r responses from an international law perspective would be (Vidas et al., 2015; Andreone, 2017; Mayer and Crepeau, 2017; Chircop \r et al., 2018). While specific legal arrangements and instruments of environmental protection are in place at a regional, sub-regional \r [...]"


id: 1d3ed9e796c0563c8adbc684fd9f34c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] and national level, they are insufficient to address the new challenges sea level rise brings. Institutional responses to the geopolitical \r transformation caused by climate change, such as through the Arctic Council (AC) and the 'Law of the Sea' are still evolving. Similar to \r many international agreements, UNCLOS 'Law of the Sea' provisions for enforcement, compliance, monitoring and dispute settlement \r mechanisms are not comprehensive, and commonly depend on further, detailed law-making by state parties, acting through competent \r international organizations (Vidas, 2000; Karim, 2015; De Lucia, 2017; Grip, 2017). Shifts from traditional state-based practices of \r international law to multi-level and informal governance structures that involve state and non-state actors (including Indigenous \r Peoples) may address these challenges (medium confidence; Cassotta, 2012; Shadian, 2014; Young, 2016; Andreone, 2017). The AC is \r [...]"


id: 26f2d3a9427109da26e79d1fd6c2eb2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] a regionally focused governance structure blending new forms of formal and informal multi-level regional cooperation (Young, 2016). \r The soft law mechanisms employed draw upon best available practice and standards from multiple knowledge systems (Cassotta and \r Mazza, 2015; Pincus and Ali, 2015) in an attempt to respond to the ocean's global, trans-regional and national climate challenges \r (Section 3.5.4.2). Reconfiguration and restructuring of the AC has been proposed in order to address emerging trans-regional and global \r problems (high confidence; Baker and Yeager, 2015; Pincus and Ali, 2015; Young, 2016). Within the existing scope, the AC has amplified \r the voice of Arctic people affected by the impacts of climate change and mobilized action (Koivurova, 2016). The influence of actors \r 'beyond the state' is emerging (Figure CB3.2). However, the state retains its importance in tackling the new challenges produced by \r [...]"


id: eff8107887c17095fe4be0ba2bb185e
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content:
"[...] climate change, as the role of international cooperation in UNCLOS and the Polar Regions demonstrates (Section 3.5.4.2). For example, \r Article 234 (Ice-covered areas) and Article 197 of the UNCLOS Convention in protecting the marine environment, states that 'States shall \r cooperate on a global basis and, as appropriate, on a regional basis [...] taking into account characteristic regional features'."


id: 8073a1b7dcf6c3bc0c55603e81183f09
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19726
content:
"Case Study 2 - Mountain Governance: Water management in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Gilgit-Baltistan is an arid territory \r in  a  mountainous region of northern Pakistan. Melt water fed streams supply irrigation water for rural livelihoods (Nusser and \r Schmidt, 2017). The labour intensive work of constructing and maintaining gravity-fed irrigation canals is done by jirga, traditional \r community associations. As glaciers retreat due to climate change, water sources at the edge of glaciers have been impacted, reducing \r water available for irrigation. In response, villagers constructed new channels accessing more distant water for irrigation needs \r (Parveen et al., 2015). The Aga Khan Development Network supported this substantial task by providing funding and developing a new \r kind of cross-scale governance network, drawing on local residents for staff (Walter, 2014), and strengthening community resources, \r [...]"


id: 81997086416141fbf0d563037438cfdd
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content:
"[...] training and networks. Challenges remain, including the potential for increased rainfall causing landslides that could damage new \r canals, and possible expansion of Pakistan's hydropower infrastructure that would further diminish water resources and displace\r villages (Shaikh et al., 2015). On a geopolitical scale, decreased water supplies from the glaciers could exacerbate tensions over water \r resources in the region, impacting water management in many parts of the Indus watershed (Uprety and Salman, 2011; Jamir, 2016;\r see Section 2.3.1.4 for details)."


id: 14d6f8f851b14cad59547db2dfa4fba9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 894
content:
"These cases illustrate four important points. First, new governance challenges are emerging due to climate change, including: disruptions \r to long-established cultures, livelihoods and even territorial sovereignty (Case 1); changes in the accessibility and availability of vital \r resources (Case 2); and the blurring of public and private boundaries of risk and responsibility through accelerated coastal erosion \r (Case 3; Figure CB3.1). Second, new governance arrangements are emerging to address these challenges, including participatory and \r networked structures linking formal and informal networks, and involving state, private sector, indigenous and civil society actors in \r different configurations (Figure CB3.2). Third, climate governance is a complex, contested and unfolding process, with governance \r actors and networks having to learn from experience, to innovate and develop context-relevant arrangements that can be adjusted\r [...]"


id: ebbeadb00eb00ab7147a85521916f2c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] in the face of ongoing change. Lastly, there is no single climate governance panacea for the ocean, coasts and cryosphere. Empirical \r evidence on which governance arrangements work well in which context is still limited, but 'good governance' norms indicate the\r importance of inclusivity, fairness, deliberation, reflexivity, responsiveness,  social learning, the co-production of knowledge and \r respect for ethnic and cultural diversity."


id: 52899d02ba7bac24ac061b5662e87bd5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"measurements, repeated hydrographic physical and biogeochemical \r observations since AR5 have led to improved estimates of ocean \r carbon uptake and ocean deoxygenation (Sections 1.4.1, 5.2.2.3, \r 5.2.2.4). Targeted observational programmes have improved \r scientific knowledge for specific regions and physical processes of \r particular concern in a warming climate, including the Greenland and \r West Antarctic ice sheets (Section 3.3), and the AMOC (Section 6.7). \r Ocean and cryosphere mass changes and sea level studies have \r benefited from sustained or newly implemented satellite-based \r remote sensing technologies, complemented by in situ data such as \r tide gauges measurements (Sections 3.3, 4.2; Dowell et al., 2013; \r Raup et al., 2015; PSMSL, 2016). Glacier length measurements in \r some locations go back many centuries (Figure  1.3), but it is the \r systematic high resolution satellite monitoring of a large number of \r [...]"


id: 289700b3332ad63d4f52fae211202349
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4354
content:
"[...] the world's glaciers since the late 1970s that has improved global \r assessments of glacier mass loss (Sections 2.2.3, 3.3.2). "


id: 2e2566190b7b5e68970a10486a0b7885
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5393
content:
"Limitations in knowledge of ocean and cryosphere change remain, \r creating knowledge gaps for the SROCC assessment. Ocean and \r cryosphere datasets are frequently short, and do not always span \r the key IPCC assessment time intervals (Cross-Chapter Box  1 in \r Chapter 1), so for many parameters the full magnitude of changes \r since the pre-industrial period is not observed (Figure  1.3). The \r brevity of ocean and cryosphere measurements also means that \r some expected changes cannot yet be detected with confidence in \r direct observations (e.g., Antarctic sea ice loss in Section 3.2.1, AMOC \r weakening in Section 6.7.1), or other observed changes cannot yet be \r robustly attributed to anthropogenic factors (e.g., ice sheet mass loss \r in Section 3.3.1). Observations for many key ocean variables (Bojinski \r et al., 2014), such as ocean currents, surface heat fluxes, oxygen, \r inorganic carbon, subsurface salinity, phytoplankton biomass and \r [...]"


id: fc43c2a51684b081ac9615e365aa6c58
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vector_id: 41749
content:
"the required density or accuracy for detection of change. Some ocean \r and cryosphere areas remain difficult to observe systematically, \r for example, the ocean under sea ice, subsurface permafrost, high \r mountain areas, marginal seas, coastal areas (Section  4.2.2.3) \r and ocean boundary currents (Hu and Sprintall, 2016), basin \r interconnections (Section  6.6) and the Southern Ocean (Sections \r 3.2, 5.2.2). Measurements that reflect ecosystem change are often \r location or species specific, and assessments of long-term ocean \r ecosystem changes are currently only feasible for a limited subset \r of variables, for example coral reef health (e.g., coral reef health) \r (Section 5.3; Miloslavich et al., 2018). The deep ocean below 2,000 m \r is still rarely observed (Talley et al., 2016), limiting (for example) the \r accurate estimate of deep ocean heat uptake and, consequently the \r full magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance (e.g., von Schuckmann \r [...]"


id: 83367973883939fecccb3d18d3090beb
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Models may differ in their spatial resolution, and in the extent \r to which processes are explicitly represented or approximated \r (parameterised). Model output can be biased due to uncertainties in \r their physical equations or parameterisations, specification of initial \r conditions, knowledge of external forcing factors, and unaccounted \r processes and feedbacks (Hawkins and Sutton, 2009; Deser et al., \r 2012; Gupta et al., 2013; Lin et al., 2016). Since AR5 there have been \r advances in modelling the dynamical processes of the Greenland \r and Antarctica ice sheets, leading to better representation of the \r range of potential future sea level rise scenarios (Sections 4.2.3). \r Downscaling, including the use of regional models, makes it possible \r to improve the spatial resolution of model output in order to better \r resolve past and future climate change in specific areas, such as high \r mountains and coastal seas (e.g., Sections 2.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.5.4, 4.2.2, \r [...]"


id: 4e18b73ca68275a98d20a0f1fb5b51fe
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11011
content:
"[...] 6.3.1). For biological processes, such as nutrient levels and organic \r matter production, model uncertainty at regional scales is the main \r issue limiting confidence in future projections (Sections 5.3, 5.7). \r While model projections of range shifts for fishes agree with theory \r and observations, at a regional scale there are known deficiencies in \r the ways models represent the impacts of ocean variables such as \r temperature and productivity (Sections 5.2.3, 5.7)."


id: 6afe5638b4805e5da9d1c9c332cf517d
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16118
content:
"Advances have been made over the past decade in developing more \r reliable and more highly resolved ocean and atmosphere reanalysis \r products. Reanalysis products combine observational data with \r numerical models through data assimilation to produce physically \r consistent, and spatially complete ocean and climate products \r (Balmaseda et al., 2015; Lellouche et al., 2018; Storto et al., 2018; \r Zuo et al., 2018). Ocean reanalyses are widely used to understand \r changes in physical properties (Section  3.2.1, 5.2), extremes \r (Sections 6.3 to 6.6), circulation (Section  6.6, 6.7) and to provide \r climate diagnostics (Wunsch et al., 2009; Balmaseda et al., 2013; Hu \r and Sprintall, 2016; Carton et al., 2018). Reanalysis products are used \r in SROCC for assessing climate change process that cause changes \r in the ocean and cryosphere (e.g., Sections 2.2.1, 3.2.1, 3.3.1, 3.4.1, \r 5.2.2, 6.3.1, 6.6.1, 6.7.1). Improvements in reanalysis products \r [...]"


id: d1ba17e9bb94d3f66ff635541084a8c2
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34252
content:
"[...] provide more realistic forcing for regional models, which are used \r for assessing regional ocean and cryosphere changes that cannot be \r resolved in global-scale models (e.g., Section  2.2.1; Mazloff et al., \r 2010; Fenty et al., 2017). The weather forecasts, and seasonal to \r decadal predictions building on reanalysis products have important \r applications in the early warning systems that reduce risk and aid \r human adaptation to extreme events (Sections 6.3.4, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, \r 6.7.3, 6.8.5)."


id: ed90984461b7d591fad47ca69ce7c2b1
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39154
content:
"Palaeoclimate data provide a way to establish the nature of ocean \r and cryosphere changes prior to direct measurements (Figure 1.3), \r including natural variability and early anthropogenic climate change \r (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013; Abram et al., 2016). Palaeoclimate \r records utilise the accumulation of physical, chemical or biological \r properties within natural archives that are related to climate at the \r time the archive formed. Commonly used palaeoclimate evidence \r for ocean and cryosphere change comes from marine and lake \r sediments, ice layers and bubbles, tree growth rings, past shorelines \r and shallow reef deposits. In many mountain areas, centuries to \r millennia of palaeoclimate information is now being lost through \r widespread melting of glacier ice (Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2). \r Palaeoclimate data are spatially limited (Figure  1.3), but often \r represent regional to global-scale climate patterns, either individually \r [...]"


id: ff64ebd6533312c69dcbb3bbe102eaec
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42335
content:
"Palaeoclimate data provide evidence for multi-metre global sea \r level rises and shifts in climate zones and ocean ecosystems during \r past warm climate states where temperatures were similar to those \r expected later this century (Hansen et al., 2016; Fischer et al., 2018; \r Section 4.2.2). Palaeoclimate reconstructions give context to recent \r ocean and cryosphere changes that are unusual in the context of \r variability over past centuries to millennia, including acceleration in \r Greenland and Antarctic Peninsula ice-melt (Section 3.3.1), declining \r Arctic sea ice (Section 3.2.1), and emerging evidence for a slowdown \r of AMOC (Section 6.7.1). Assessments of climate model performance \r across a wider-range of climate states than is possible using direct \r observations alone also draws on palaeoclimate data (Flato et al., \r 2013), and since AR5 important progress has been made to calibrate \r modelled ice sheet processes and future sea level rise based on \r [...]"


id: fcbc10facff1155c224b9c9ad1da4f91
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content:
"Figure 1.3 | Illustrative examples of the availability of ocean and cryosphere data relative to the major time periods assessed in the Special Report on the Oceans and \r Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). Upper panel; observed (Keeling et al., 1976) and reconstructed (Bereiter et al., 2015) atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as \r well as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of CO2 for low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) future emission scenarios (van Vuuren et al., 2011a; Cross-Chapter \r Box 1 in Chapter 1). Lower panel; illustrative examples of data availability for the ocean and cryosphere (Section 1.8.1; Taylor et al., 2012; Boyer et al., 2013; Dowell et \r al., 2013; McQuatters-Gollop et al., 2015; Raup et al., 2015; Olsen et al., 2016; PSMSL, 2016; PAGES2K Consortium, 2017; WGMS, 2017). The amount of data available \r [...]"


id: 5820e594dab0e6af06b4e75ab15cea8d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] through time is shown by the heights of the time series for observational data, palaeoclimate data and model simulations, expressed relative to the maximum annual data \r availability (maximum values given on plot; M = million, k = thousand). Spatial coverage of data across the globe or the relevant domain is shown by colour scale. See \r SM1.4 for further details. "


id: e8a72dceefa245ef7969c7f6c2088501
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Education and climate literacy contribute to climate change action \r and adaptation (high confidence). Although public understanding \r of humanity's role in both causing and abating climate change \r has increased in the last decade (Milfont et al., 2017), levels of \r climate concern vary greatly globally (Lee et al., 2015). Educational \r attainment has the strongest effect on raising climate change \r awareness (Lee et al., 2015), and research documents the value of \r evidence-based climate change education, particularly during formal \r schooling (Motta, 2018). People further understand climate change \r as a serious threat when they experience it in their lives and have \r knowledge of its human causes (Lee et al., 2015; Shi et al., 2016). \r Education and tailored climate communication strategies that are \r respectful of people's values and identity can aid acceptance and \r implementation of the local to global-scale approaches and policies \r [...]"


id: 1c79048277c7a00df98dd74f3d91146
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] required for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation (Shi \r et al., 2016; Anisimov and Orttung, 2018; Sections 3.5.4, 4.4), while \r also supporting CRDPs (see also Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1, \r and FAQ1.2). "


id: 8307a244f0aafd6127e46d9f4ecca473
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"Global environmental assessments increasingly recognise the \r importance of IK and LK (Thaman et al., 2013; Beck et al., 2014; \r Diaz et al., 2015). References to IK in IPCC assessment reports \r increased 60% from AR4 to AR5, and highlighted the exposures and \r vulnerabilities of Indigenous populations to climate change risks \r related to socioeconomic status, resource-based dependence and \r geographic location (Ford et al., 2016a). All four IPBES assessments \r in 2018 (IPBES, 2018a; IPBES, 2018b; IPBES, 2018c; IPBES, 2018d) \r engaged IK and LK (Diaz et al., 2015; Roue and Molnar, 2017; Diaz \r et al., 2018). Peer-reviewed research on IK and LK is burgeoning \r (Savo et al., 2016), providing information that can guide responses \r and inform policy (Huntington, 2011; Nakashima et al., 2012; \r Lavrillier and Gabyshev, 2018). However, most global assessments \r still fail to incorporate 'the plurality and heterogeneity of worldviews' \r [...]"


id: 5d3f42b2cb25e6439dc11ea16840c6c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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content:
"[...] (Obermeister, 2017), resulting 'in a partial understanding of core \r issues that limits the potential for locally and culturally appropriate \r adaptation responses' (Ford et al., 2016b)."


id: 44175f7d6e274d79d5db229e215c573d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
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vector_id: 9218
content:
"Attention to IK and LK in understanding global change is relatively recent, but important (high confidence). For instance, in 1980, \r Alaskan Inuit formed the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission in response to the International Whaling Commission's science that \r underestimated the Bowhead whale population and, in 1977, banned whaling as a result (Huntington, 1992). The Commission \r facilitated an improved population count using a study design based on IK, which indicated a harvestable population (Huntington, \r 2000). There are various approaches for utilising multiple knowledge systems. For example, the Mi'kmaw Elders' concept of Two Eyed \r Seeing: which is 'learning to see from one eye with the strengths of Indigenous knowledges, and from the other eye with the strengths \r of Western [scientific] knowledges, and to use both together, for the benefit of all' (Bartlett et al., 2012), to preserve the distinctiveness \r [...]"


id: 1cafaee25ef9ff57e3bee80932d81e9a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2224
content:
"Scientific knowledge,  IK and LK can complement one another by engaging both quantitative data and qualitative information, \r including people's observations, responses and values (Huntington, 2000; Crate and Fedorov, 2013; Burnham et al., 2016; Figure CB4.1). \r However, this process of knowledge co-production is complex (Jasanoff, 2004) and IK and LK possess uncertainties of a different\r nature from those of scientific knowledge (Kahneman and Egan, 2011), often resulting in the dominance of scientific knowledge over \r IK and LK in policy, governance and management (Mistry and Berardi, 2016). Working across disciplines (interdisciplinarity; Strang, \r 2009), and/or engaging multiple stakeholders (transdisciplinarity; Klenk and Meehan, 2015; Crate et al., 2017), are approaches used \r to bridge knowledge systems. The use of all knowledge relevant to a specific challenge can involve approaches such as: scenario \r [...]"


id: bb9560925df3d37af4ac957292dc0cdf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30223
content:
"[...] building across stakeholder groups to capture the multiple ways people perceive their environment and act within it (Klenk and \r Meehan, 2015); knowledge co-production to achieve collaborative management efforts (Armitage et al., 2011); and working with \r communities to identify shared values and perceptions that enable context-specific adaptation strategies (Grunblatt and Alessa, \r 2017). Broad stakeholder engagement, including affected communities, Indigenous Peoples, local and regional representatives, policy \r makers, managers, interest groups and organisations, has the potential to effectively use all relevant knowledge (Obermeister, 2017) \r and produce results that reduce the disproportionate influence that formally educated and economically advantaged groups often \r exert in scientific assessments (Castree et al., 2014). "


id: 213bf0d4a05edfa01543cf0723d7afcb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3063
content:
"IK and Pikialasorsuaq: Pikialasorsuaq (North Water Polynya), in Baffin Bay, is the Arctic's largest polynya, or area of open water \r surrounded by ice, and is also one of the most biologically productive regions in the Arctic (Barber et al., 2001). Adjacent Inuit communities \r depend on Pikialasorsuaq for their food security and subsistence economy (Hastrup et al., 2018). They use Qaujimajatuqangit, an IK \r system, in daily and seasonal activities (ICC, 2017). The sea ice bridge north of the Pikialasorsuaq is no longer forming as reliably as \r in the past, resulting in a polynya that is geographically and seasonally less defined (Ryan and Munchow, 2017). In response, the \r Inuit Circumpolar Council initiated the Pikialasorsuaq Commission who formed an Inuit-led management authority to (1) oversee \r monitoring and research to conserve the polynya's living resources; (2) identify an Indigenous Protected Area, to include the polynya \r [...]"


id: ac927a0bcfca818596fac880f4daf103
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27603
content:
"[...] and dependent communities; and (3) establish a free travel zone for Inuit across the Pikialasorsuaq region (ICC, 2017; Box 3.2)."


id: f6815836366637c4ca0241cc6a6657a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40741
content:
"Perspectives from the Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC), Canada: Engaging Inuit as partners across all climate research disciplines \r ensures that Inuit knowledge and priorities guide research, monitoring, and the reporting of results in Inuit homeland. Doing so \r enhances the effectiveness, impact, and usefulness of global assessments, and ensures that Inuit knowledge is appropriately reported \r in assessments. Inuit seek to achieve self-determination in all aspects of research carried out in Inuit homeland (e.g., Nickels et al., \r 2005). Inuit actively produce and use climate research (e.g., ITK, 2005; ICC, 2015) and lead approaches to address climate challenges \r spurred by great incentive to develop innovative solutions. Engaging Inuit representative organisations and governments as partners \r in research recognises that the best available knowledge includes IK, enabling more robust climate research that in turn informs \r [...]"


id: 63435295a5b5d4a6dd50ed49ac914ac9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14756
content:
"[...] climate policy. When interpreted and applied properly, IK comes directly from research by Inuit and from an Inuit perspective (ICC, \r 2018). This can be achieved by working with Inuit on scoping and methodology for assessments and supporting inclusion of Inuit \r experts in research, analysis, and results dissemination."


id: 259b20b1d9924a683a9a40f3487fcc96
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3800
content:
"Quantitative expressions (likelihood scale) are used when sufficient \r data and confidence exists for findings to be assigned a quantitative \r or probabilistic estimate (Figure 1.4, step 3). In the scientific literature, \r a finding is often said to be significant if it has a likelihood exceeding \r 95% confidence. Using calibrated IPCC language, this level of \r statistical confidence would be termed extremely likely. Lower levels \r of likelihood than those derived numerically can be assigned by \r expert judgement to take into account structural or measurement \r uncertainties within the products or data used to determine the \r probabilistic estimates (e.g.,  Table CB1.1). Likelihood statements \r may be used to describe how climate changes relate to the ends of \r distribution functions, such as in detection and attribution studies \r that assess the likelihood that an observed climate change or event is \r different to a reference climate state (Section 1.3). In other situations, \r [...]"


id: bc863e67d5de5f3d1a0200c3bb3045d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30414
content:
"[...] likelihood statements refer to the central region across a distribution \r of possibilities. Examples are the estimates of future changes based \r on large ensembles of climate model simulations, where the central \r 66% of estimates across the ensemble (i.e.,  the 17-83% range) \r would be termed a likely range (Figure 1.4, step 3). "


id: 46d2e50003091dddbb62dcc1b9a157e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9664
content:
"The IPCC, and earlier assessments, encountered deep uncertainty when evaluating numerous aspects of the climate change \r problem. Examining these cases sheds light on approaches to quantifying and reducing deep uncertainty. An assessment by the \r US National Academy of Sciences (Charney et al., 1979; commonly referred to as the Charney Report) provides a classic example. \r Evaluating climate sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration, and developing a probability distribution for it, was \r challenging because only two 3-D climate models and a handful of model variants and realisations were available. The panel invoked \r three strategies to eliminate some of these simulations: (1) Using multiple lines of evidence to complement the limited model \r results; (2) estimating the consequences of poor or absent model representations of certain physical processes (particularly cumulus \r [...]"


id: 518bfc44e2577288c9ffa8f7a2854663
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11624
content:
"[...] convection, high-altitude cloud formation, and non-cloud entrainment); and, (3) evaluating mismatches between model results and\r observations. This triage yielded 'probable bounds' of 2o\r C-3.5oC on climate sensitivity. The panel then invoked expert judgment \r (Box 12.2 in Collins et al., 2013) to broaden the range to 3 +- 1.5o\r C, with 3oC referred to as the 'most probable value'. The panel did \r not report its confidence in these judgments."


id: 6a8536cfddc42dd47a18efa587b12958
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16027
content:
"The literature has expanded greatly since, allowing successive IPCC assessments to refine the approach taken in the Charney report. By \r the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), four lines of evidence (from instrumental records, palaeoclimate data, model intercomparison \r of sensitivity, and model-climatology comparisons) were assessed to determine that 'Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the \r range 1.5oC-4.5oC (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1oC (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6oC (medium \r confidence)' (Box 12.2 in Collins et al., 2013). The Charney report began the process of convergence of opinion around a single \r probability range (essentially, category (2) in the definition of deep uncertainty, above), at least for sensitivity arising from fast \r feedbacks captured by global climate models (Hansen et al., 2007). Subsequent assessments increased confidence, eliminating deep\r [...]"


