# document

id: a022da82cadd7d15e7f977d62821c249
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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"vegetation, which provided habitat for 832 species of native vertebrate fauna. Seventy taxa had more than 30% of their habitat impacted, \r including 21 already identified as threatened with extinction (Ward et al., 2020). In addition, millions of people experienced levels of smoke \r 20 times higher than the government-identified safe level. The year 2019 had been Australia's warmest and driest year on record. In the \r summer of 2019/2020, the seasonal mean and mean maximum temperatures were the hottest by almost 1degC above the previous record. Eight \r of the 10 hottest days on record for national mean temperatures occurred in December 2019. While the prevailing weather conditions were \r strongly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole pressure pattern, with a contribution from weakly positive ENSO conditions in the Pacific, the \r fact that Australia is approximately 1degC warmer than the early 20th century demonstrates links to anthropogenic climate change. Eight climate \r [...]"


id: 3ce4d5102c9ccf7c5ce22aaf08f61253
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] models using event attribution methodologies (comparison of simulations with present-day and pre-industrial forcings) indicates that \r anthropogenic climate change made the heat conditions of December 2019 more than twice as likely (van Oldenborgh et al., 2020)."


id: 6bb1fda8c03e4278b32405d76d1d3778
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
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"In 2019, Europe experienced several record-breaking heatwaves. In June, the first one featured record heat for that time in early summer, \r with temperatures of 6degC-10degC above normal over most of France and Germany, northern Spain, northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria \r and the Czech Republic (Climate, 2019). The second heatwave also resulted in all-time records for Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, the \r Netherlands and the UK in July. Attribution studies (Vautard et al., 2020) demonstrated that these would have had extremely small odds \r in the absence of human-induced climate change or would have been 1.5degC-3degC colder without human-induced climate change. This \r study concluded that state-of-the-art climate models underestimate the trends in local heat extremes compared to the observed trend. \r Since the 2003 heatwave, which resulted in tens of thousands of deaths across Europe, many European countries have adopted heatwave \r [...]"


id: 3a562e9ae9acf93fe5fafd78bcc0848b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
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vector_id: 7468
content:
"[...] plans, including early warning systems. Therefore, mortality in 2019 was substantially lower than it might have been. Unfortunately, \r mortality is not registered systematically across Europe, and therefore, comprehensive analyses are missing. But even based on the \r countries that provide the numbers, more specifically France, Belgium and the Netherlands, the European heatwave of 2019 resulted in \r over 2500 deaths (CRED, 2019). Despite their deadliness and the fact that climate change increases the frequency, intensity and duration \r of heatwaves globally (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis, 2020), heatwaves are not consistently reported in many countries (Harrington and \r Otto, 2020), rendering it currently impossible to estimate climate change impacts on lives and livelihoods comprehensively."


id: 677c7782f6315c5e02ac104ad4a93bb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"From 12 to 15 July 2021, extreme rainfall in Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and neighbouring countries led to severe flooding. The \r severe flooding was caused by very heavy rainfall over a period of 1-2 d, wet conditions prior to the event and local hydrological factors. \r The observed rainfall amounts in the Ahr/Erft region and the Belgian part of the Meuse catchment substantially exceeded previous \r records for observed rainfall. An attribution study (Kreienkamp et al., 2021) focused on the heavy rainfall rather than river discharge and \r water levels, because sufficient hydrological data was not available, partly because hydrological monitoring systems were destroyed \r by the event. Considering a larger region of western Europe between the northern side of the Alps and the Netherlands, in any given \r location, one such event can be expected every 400 years on average in the current climate. The floods resulted in least 222 fatalities and \r [...]"


id: ad2c0d6e1ccf06fcf8e9281689d3cb5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] substantial damage to houses, roads, communication infrastructure, motorways, railway lines and bridges."


id: c0a0f826b9be7e4f6e9f2b7b7771c451
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"Disasters resulting from extreme events are increasingly experienced by a large section of human population (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., \r 2018). Disasters expose inequalities in natural and managed systems and human systems as they disproportionately affect poor and \r marginalised communities like ethnic minorities, people of colour, Indigenous Peoples, women and children. Therefore, disaster risk \r reduction is fundamental for climate justice and climate resilient development (UNISDR, 2015). Far from being disconnected policy \r objectives, disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation/adaptation are two sides of the same coin as recognised explicitly by the \r Paris Agreement and Sendai Framework of 2015. There can be no sustainable development without disaster risk reduction, as explicitly \r recognised by the SDGs of 2015. Furthermore, disaster events can increase awareness among citizens and provide a platform for all \r [...]"


id: e229323efb98e0d563536b52a66c0c8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] important stakeholders, including climate activists, to come together, and give a clarion call for the urgency of climate action."


id: fa8869e494926c1033836450ff52c3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"and upstream were found for 32 stream fish species in France (Comte \r and Grenouillet, 2013). In North America, for the bull trout (Salvelinus \r confluentus) a reduction in the number of occupied sites was documented \r in a watershed in Montana (Eby et  al., 2014). Other impacts include \r disruption of seasonal movements of migratory waterbirds that regularly \r visit freshwater ecosystems, with adverse impacts on their feeding and \r breeding (Finlayson et al., 2006; Bussiere et al., 2015). Keystone species, \r such as the beaver (Caster Canadensis) in North America, have been \r moving into new areas as the vegetation structure has changed in \r response to higher temperatures enabling shrubs to establish in the Arctic \r and alpine tundra ecosystems (Jung et al., 2016). Increased occurrence \r and intensity of algal blooms have occurred due to the interactive effects \r of thermal extremes and low dissolved oxygen concentrations in water \r [...]"


id: 8df8bdc8e0fbff7f78240ae01f7d6153
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] (Griffith and Gobler, 2020) (Section 4.2.7). A global review found that \r almost 90% of all studies reviewed documented a decline in salmonid \r populations in North America and Europe, and identified knowledge gaps \r elsewhere (Myers et al., 2017). Another review (Pecl et al., 2017) found \r declines in Atlantic salmon in Finland and poleward shift in coastal fish \r species, while another review (Scheffers et al., 2016) noted hybridisation \r between freshwater species like invasive rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus \r mykiss) and native cutthroat trout (O. clarkia)."


id: cea6aa6fe28977952255d21d684fafee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"The links between air and water temperatures and ecological processes \r in freshwater ecosystems are well recognised. Increasing temperatures \r affect wetlands by influencing biophysical processes, affecting feeding \r and breeding habits and species' distribution ranges, including their \r ability to compete with others. Increased temperatures can also \r cause deoxygenation in the lower depths of the water columns and \r throughout the entire water column if heating destabilises the water \r column. Under extreme heat, often associated with minimal rainfall or \r water flows, the drying of shallower areas and the migration or death \r of individual organisms can occur (Dell et al., 2014; Miller et al., 2014; \r Scheffers et al., 2016; Szekeres et al., 2016; Myers et al., 2017; FAO, \r 2018a) (high confidence). A global systematic review of studies since \r 2005 shows that climate change is a critical direct driver of freshwater \r [...]"


id: f5e637d2eee195e925c63e7ea2448f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] ecosystems impacts through increasing temperatures or declining \r rainfall, for example, by causing physiological stress or death (thermal \r stress, dehydration or desiccation), limiting food supplies, or resulting \r in migration of animals to other feeding or breeding areas, and possibly \r increased competition with animals already present in those migrating \r locations {Diaz et  al. 2019; Dziba et  al. 2018}. Other drivers include \r land use changes, water pollution, extraction of water, drainage and \r conversion, and invasive species, which to varying extents interact \r synergistically with climate change or are exacerbated due to climate \r change (Finlayson et al., 2017; Ramsar Convention, 2018)."


id: d4001d95aa7c6eaac1cbd6475fb48adc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"Since AR5, only a few studies focused specifically on the association \r between observed changes in the hydrological cycle linked to climate \r change and conflicts (Zografos et al., 2014; Dinar et al., 2015). Some \r studies associate conflicts with local abundance of water (Salehyan \r and Hendrix, 2014; Selby and Hoffmann, 2014; de Juan, 2015), mainly \r because of political mobilisation around abundant waters and the need \r for developing new rules of allocation among competing users. Others \r provide evidence that the increase in water availability in some areas \r compared with a decrease in other surrounding areas can affect the risk \r of a conflict in a region (de Juan, 2015) (low to medium confidence). \r However, the large majority acknowledges reduction of water availability \r due to climate change as having the potential to exacerbate tensions (de \r Stefano et al., 2017; Waha et al., 2017), especially in regions and within \r [...]"


id: 42e107b0653099cb6b17698f38772706
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] groups dependent on agriculture for food production (von Uexkull et al., \r 2016; Koubi, 2019) (high confidence). Particularly representative is the \r case of Syria, where drought aggravated existing water and agricultural \r insecurity (Kelley et al., 2015). However, whether drought caused civil \r unrest in Syria remains highly debated (Gleick, 2014; Kelley et al., 2017; \r Selby et al., 2017; Ash and Obradovich, 2019). Additionally, there is no \r consensus on the causal association between observed climate changes \r and conflict (Hsiang Solomon et  al., 2013; Burke et  al., 2015; Selby, \r 2019). However, evidence suggests that changes in rainfall patterns \r amplify existing tensions (Abel et  al., 2019); examples include Syria, \r Iraq (Abbas et  al., 2016; von Lossow, 2016) and Yemen (Mohamed \r et  al., 2017) (medium confidence). There is also medium evidence\r that in some regions of Africa (e.g., Kenya, Democratic Republic of the \r [...]"


id: f25170a0c02f195ff707511209d42212
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] Congo), there are links between observed water stress and individual \r attitude for participating in violence, particularly for the least resilient \r individuals (von Uexkull et al., 2020) (medium confidence). A reverse \r association from conflict to climate impacts has also been observed \r (Buhaug, 2016). For example, conflict-affected societies cannot address \r climate-change impacts due to other associated vulnerabilities such as \r poverty, food insecurity and political instability.\r For transboundary waters, the probability of inter-state conflict can \r both increase and decrease (Dinar et al., 2019) depending on climatic \r variables (e.g., less precipitation) and other socioeconomic and political \r factors, such as low levels of economic development and political \r marginalisation (Koubi, 2019). Climate change concerns also play a "


id: fc46ca93fb31dadd447979056f0e65c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"There is high confidence that glacier retreat and increasing glacier \r runoff variability are negatively affecting cultural beliefs and practices \r in high-mountain areas. For example, the loss of glaciers threatens the \r ethnic identity of the Indigenous Manangi community of the Annapurna \r Conservation Area of Nepal (Konchar et al., 2015; Mukherji et al., 2019). \r Likewise, ice loss in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes has \r challenged traditional approaches of interacting with the glaciers \r (Motschmann et al., 2020) (Section 4.2.2). There is high confidence that \r cryospheric changes in high-mountain areas also impact traditional \r pastoral practices by altering seasonal conditions, pasture quality and \r water availability. For example, pasture quality in India (Ingty, 2017); Tibet \r Autonomous Region, People's Republic of China (Nyima and Hopping, \r 2019); and Bolivia (Yager et al., 2019) has been negatively impacted by \r [...]"


id: 947ebc9b1b22fcbbf3acedb0445d1eb9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] climate-related hydrological changes, leading some Indigenous herders \r to diversify livestock, while herders in Nepal (Popular and Rik, 2016) \r and Peru (Postigo, 2020) have altered their routes in response to local \r water scarcity. Local communities in high-mountain areas understand \r these hydrological changes through cultural and spiritual frameworks \r (medium evidence, high agreement). For instance, in the Peruvian Andes \r and the Hindu Kush Himalaya, changing ice is attributed to a lack of \r spiritual devotion (Drenkhan et al., 2015; Konchar et al., 2015; Scoville\u0002Simonds, 2018). Communities in the Peruvian Andes also interpret \r climate impacts in the broader context of socioeconomic and political \r injustice and inequality (Drenkhan et al., 2015; Paerregaard, 2018)."


id: 22291b2c3a9735b92d8c3c362442d0b3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"Notably, the multi-model median change in precipitation is relatively \r small in many regions--less than 10% over most of the global land \r surface at 1.5degC global warming. In contrast, in many locations, the \r 5th to 95th percentile range can include changes that are much larger \r changes than the median and also changes that are relatively large \r but opposite in sign. At 4degC global warming, the median projected \r changes are larger, ranging from a 20% decrease to a 40% increase \r (excluding very dry areas, where percentage changes can be much \r larger due to very small baseline values), but nevertheless often remain \r a poor indicator of the range of changes across the ensemble. Therefore, \r use of the median or mean projected changes for future adaptation \r decisions could substantially underestimate the risk of large changes in \r precipitation. It could mean that the risk of the opposite sign of changes \r [...]"


id: 8309f33e19869a72b3fa3b32a015d79c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] is not accounted for. Indeed, for mean precipitation, different multi\u0002model ensembles can show different levels of significance of the central \r estimate of change (Uhe et  al., 2021: Figure  4.11a). Consequently, \r information on the range of possible outcomes can be valued by users \r for effectively informing risk assessments (Lowe et al., 2018)."


id: cb12e13c260280b6d777a1f37502733c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"Figure 4.11 |  Agreement between different multi-model ensembles on significant changes in (a) annual mean precipitation and (b) annual maximum 1-d \r precipitation (Rx1day) at 2degC global warming (Uhe et al., 2021). Using central estimates from five ensembles of climate models (CMIP5, CMIP6, HAPPI, HELIX and UKCP18) \r using different models and different experimental designs for the ensembles, the maps show the number of ensembles for which the central estimate shows a significant drying or \r wetting change at 2degC global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. The different ensembles reach 2degC global warming at different times. The projected changes are aggregated \r over the new climatic regions defined for IPCC AR6 (Iturbide et al., 2020). Hatched regions show where different ensembles project significant changes in opposite directions, i.e., \r [...]"


id: 3dcbdca39a28414bc7086de61c241af0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] there is no agreement on either drying or wetting. Regions with thick outlines are where CMIP6 disagrees with three of the other four ensembles on the significance of the change, \r highlighting where over-relying on CMIP6 alone may not fully represent the level of confidence in the projections."


id: 2c306acf367e42b76b1d3def39bd0f56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"(Figure  4.12) and especially between the means of the different \r ensembles (Figure 4.11b). At 4degC global warming, the 50th percentile \r projection is for increased annual maximum 1-d precipitation over \r virtually all global land, with the median increase being over 20% \r for a majority of the land. The 95th percentile increase is 20-40% \r over most mid-latitude areas and at least 40--70% over the tropics \r and subtropics, exceeding 80% over western Amazonia, central \r Africa and most of the Indian sub-continent. The 5th percentile also \r shows an increase over most global land; in other words, decreased \r heavy precipitation has less than a 5% probability in these regions \r (Figure  4.12a), although decreases remain possible but of low \r probability in some regions, particularly northern South America and \r northern and western Africa. At the 50th and 95th percentiles, similar \r global patterns of change are projected at 2degC and 1.5degC global \r [...]"


id: eefac7dbd4f721d5c49dee1cc07035a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] warming, with smaller local magnitudes (Figure  4.12e,f,h,i). At the \r 5th percentile, decreased Rx1day is seen over much larger land areas \r (Figure 4.12d,g), which may be a result of internal climate variability \r being relatively larger than the long-term trend at lower GWLs. In \r CMIP5, precipitation extremes are projected to be more likely to \r increase than to decrease on average over both the humid and arid \r regions of the world, but with larger uncertainty in arid areas (Donat \r et al., 2019)."


id: dc8bd6be8e19bae5a5a4380293e79453
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"Figure 4.12 |  Projected percentage changes in annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) averaged over 20 years centred at the time of first passing \r (a-c) 4degC, (d-f) 2degC and (g-i) 1.5degC global warming levels (GWLs) relative to 1851-1900. Results are based on simulations from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble under \r the SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Uncertainties in the projections are quantified with the (a, d, g) 5th, (b, e, h) 50th and (c, f, i) 95th percentile \r local values from the ensemble at each GWL. Note that these are uncertainties at the individual point and are not spatially coherent, that is, they do not represent plausible global \r patterns of change. The 50th percentile maps (b, e, h) present the same data over land as Figure 11.16 of Seneviratne et al. (2021). The numbers on the left indicate the number of \r [...]"


id: 6a236f0be37ce3ffd1f06c3d7ac18640
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 15951
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"[...] simulations included at each warming level, including multiple realisations from some models with varying initial conditions, depending on data availability. Results for the 1.5degC \r GWL include 37 unique models. Fewer models and realisations are available for the 2degC and 4degC GWLs, as fewer scenarios and/or models reach those warming levels. For individual \r models, the global patterns of changes are very similar across scenarios, and any differences between scenarios are smaller than the ensemble uncertainty for an individual scenario. \r The CMIP6 projections of changes in mean and extreme precipitation are discussed in more detail by WGI (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2021; Seneviratne et al., 2021)."


id: 66dcc97972af2002a73ad5b5f3e1c66a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"AR5 noted that global glacier mass loss is very likely to increase further \r during the 21st century (Jimenez Cisneros et al., 2014). According to the \r SROCC (Hock et al., 2019b), it is very likely that glaciers will continue \r to lose mass throughout the 21st century: from 18% (by 2100, relative \r to 2015) for RCP2.6 to 36% for RCP8.5. AR5 (Collins et  al., 2013) \r and SROCC (Meredith et  al., 2019) reported with high confidence\r that permafrost would continue to thaw in the 21st century, but \r the projections are uncertain. Constraining warming to 1.5degC would \r prevent the thawing of a permafrost area of 1.5 to 2.5  million km2 \r compared to thawing under 2degC (medium confidence) (IPCC, 2018b). \r AR5 (Collins et al., 2013) and SROCC (Meredith et al., 2019) concluded \r that Northern Hemisphere snow extent and mass would likely reduce \r by the end of the 21st century, both in plain and mountain regions. AR6 \r assessed with medium confidence that under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 from \r [...]"


id: ec3a4d019afca08fe1718f45633feccf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] 2015 to 2100, glaciers are expected to lose 18% and 36% of their early \r 21st-century mass, respectively (AR6 WGI, (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021))."


id: 155f0538aee8f2a6a83fb140c8f7d8b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"AR5 (Jimenez Cisneros et  al., 2014) concluded that increases in the \r mean annual runoff are projected in high latitudes and the wet tropics \r and decreases in dry tropical regions, but with very considerable \r uncertainty. Both the patterns of change and uncertainties were found \r to be primarily driven by projected changes in precipitation. SR1.5 \r (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al., 2018) concluded with medium confidence\r that areas with either positive or negative changes in mean annual \r runoff/streamflow are projected to be smaller for 1.5degC than for 2degC of \r global warming. AR6 WGI (Douville et al., 2021) conclude with medium \r confidence that global runoff will increase with global warming \r but with significant regional and seasonal variations. WGI further \r concluded with high confidence that runoff will increase in the high \r northern latitudes and decrease in the Mediterranean and southern \r Africa. However, there was medium confidence that runoff will increase \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] in central and eastern African regions and decrease in Central America \r and parts of southern South America. The magnitude of the change \r is projected to increase with emissions. There is medium confidence\r that the seasonality of runoff and streamflow will increase with global \r warming in the subtropics. In snow-dominated regions, there is high \r confidence that peak flows associated with spring snowmelt will occur \r earlier in the year and medium confidence that snowmelt-induced \r runoff will decrease with reduced snow, except in glacier-fed basins \r where runoff may increase in the near term."


id: ceafcbe67032b1e37dba75d04129cba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 33701
content:
"Projections of snow cover metrics [IPCC AR6 WGI, 2021 (Section 9.5.3.3)] \r suggest a further decrease in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow \r cover extent (SCE), though the inter-model spread is considerable (Lute \r et al., 2015; Thackeray et al., 2016; Kong and Wang, 2017; Henderson \r et  al., 2018) (high confidence). The projected CMIP6 SCE and SWE \r changes share the broad features of the CMIP5 projections: SCE is \r expected to decrease in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately \r 20%, relative to the 1995-2014 mean value, around 2060 and stabilise \r afterwards under the RCP2.6 scenario, while the RCP8.5 scenario \r leads to snow cover losses up to 60% by 2100 (Mudryk et al., 2020). \r Regionally, the SWE loss will probably lead to more frequent snow \r droughts; for example, the frequency of consecutive snow droughts is \r projected to increase to 80-100% of years at 4deg\r C warming in western \r Canada (Shrestha et  al., 2021) and 42% of years under the RCP8.5 \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10768
content:
"[...] scenario in the western USA (Marshall et al., 2019) by 2100. Thus, by the \r mid- to late 21st century, for more than 2/3 of snow-dominated areas in \r the western USA, the ability to predict seasonal droughts and prepare \r robust water management plans will decline (Livneh and Badger, 2020) \r (Section 4.4.5)."


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vector_id: 8953
content:
"Changes in runoff and streamflow are projected over most of the \r ice-free land surface with all recent climate and hydrological model \r ensembles (Figure  4.16). Changes in streamflow could increase the \r number of people facing water scarcity or insecurity (high confidence) \r (Schewe et  al., 2014; Gosling and Arnell, 2016; McMillan et  al., \r 2016). Projections of future runoff at basin scales show considerable \r uncertainty in many regions, including differences in signs in many \r regions (Figure  4.16). This uncertainty is driven by uncertainties in \r regional precipitation patterns and hydrological models (Koirala \r et al., 2014; Asadieh et al., 2016), including vegetation responses to \r CO2 and its effects on ET (Betts et al., 2015). This uncertainty in future \r water availability contributes to the policy challenges for adaptation, \r for example, for managing risks of water scarcity (Greve et al., 2018; \r Box  4.1). In many regions, some models project large changes in \r [...]"


id: 1f081bb2579ab3f5b7c026f4abe70b3a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2663
content:
"[...] runoff/streamflow but with low consistency between models on the \r sign of the change (Figure 4.16). In streamflow projections driven by \r 11 CMIP5 models with the RCP8.5 scenario, strong model consistency \r (agreement by at least 10 models) is only seen over 21% of global \r land (Koirala et al., 2014). Consensus on the sign of projected change \r is smaller with the RCP4.5 scenario."


id: cf9af6c462d61da807701ffaa6d24cd4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33883
content:
"In CMIP5, strong model consistency on changes in high and low \r streamflows is seen with similar global patterns to the mean flows, but \r over smaller areas (Koirala et al., 2014). By the end of the 21st century, \r with RCP8.5, increases in mean, high and low flows are projected for \r the Lena, and mean and low flows for the MacKenzie (Gelfan et al., \r 2017; Pechlivanidis et  al., 2017; Doll et  al., 2018). Increased mean \r and high flows are projected in the Ganges, high flow in the Rhine \r and Mississippi, while decreasing mean and low flows are projected \r in the Rhine (Krysanova et al., 2017; Pechlivanidis et al., 2017; Vetter \r et al., 2017). Decreases in mean, high and low flows are projected for \r the Tagus (Krysanova et al. 2017; Vetter et al. 2017). Low flows are \r projected to decrease in the Mediterranean region and increase in the \r Alps and northern Europe (Marx et al., 2018). A general shift in the \r runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff is projected in \r [...]"


id: aa32e0c1bb0581705e922d75f8a760e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27169
content:
"[...] Mexico, western USA, western Europe, southeastern China and the \r West Siberian Plain, and more extreme high runoff is projected in \r Alaska, northern Canada and large parts of Asia (Zhai et al., 2020)."


id: 1ee159b1a6411ef17d82df08de1ed72f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2636
content:
"In summary, mean and extreme streamflow changes are projected over \r most of the ice-free land surface (high confidence). The magnitude of \r streamflow change is projected to increase with global warming in \r most regions (high confidence), but there is often high uncertainty on \r the sign of change. There is high confidence that mean streamflows \r will increase in the northern high latitudes and decrease in the \r Mediterranean and southern Africa. Annual mean runoff in one third of \r assessed glacierised catchments is projected to decline by at least 10% \r by 2100 under RCP4.5, with the most significant reductions in central \r Asia and the Andes (medium confidence). Elsewhere, projections include \r both increased and decreased flows. Substantial fractions of ensemble \r projections disagree with the multi-model mean (high confidence), with \r implications for long-term planning for water management. With 1.5 \r and 2degC global warming, approximately 15 and 20% of the current \r [...]"


id: 267fcdb8f3a7cf730ac4c1bf2ccd763e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3938
content:
"[...] global population, respectively, would experience both an increase \r in high streamflows and a decrease in low streamflows (medium \r confidence). At 4degC global at the end of the century, 10% of the global \r land area is projected to simultaneously experience an increase in high \r extreme streamflow and decrease in low extreme streamflow."


id: 287f3184a27b287e55926e4d707e7997
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4331
content:
"While projected changes in high and low flows are similar to those in \r mean flows in many regions, this is not the case everywhere. When a \r single hydrological model and a sample of climate models are selected \r to explore uncertainties systematically, approximately 56% of the \r global population is projected to be affected by increased extreme high \r flows at 1.5degC warming, rising to 61% at 2degC warming (Zhai et al., \r 2020). Those affected by extreme low flows decrease is projected to \r remain close to 45% at both 1.5degC and 2degC warming. However, these \r results are based on the median of the ensemble projections, so they \r are subject to high uncertainty. At 1.5degC  global warming, 15% of \r the population is projected to be affected concurrently by decreased \r extreme low flows and increased extreme high flows, increasing \r to 20% at 2degC warming. In 25 combinations of five CMIP5 climate \r models and five global hydrological models under the RCP8.5 scenario \r [...]"


id: dbf5baafc96d20de747a490269ccb518
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35985
content:
"[...] reaching approximately 4degC GWL at the end of the century, 10% of the \r global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high \r extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow. These \r regions include the British Isles and the shores of the North Sea, large \r parts of the Tibetan Plateau, South Asia and western Oceania, and \r smaller regions of Africa and North and South America, affecting over \r 2.1  billion people with 2015 population distributions (Asadieh and \r Krakauer, 2017). With 11 CMIP5 models driving a single hydrological \r model, simultaneous increases in high flows and decreases in low \r flows are projected over 7% of global land (Koirala et al., 2014)."


id: dcbd2558a69b2686542db162c0fd7275
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36096
content:
"Figure 4.17 |  Multi-model median return period (years) in the 2080s for the 20th-century 100-year river flood, based on a global river and inundation model, \r CaMa-Flood, driven by runoff output of nine CMIP6 Models in the SSP1-2.6 (a), SSP2-4.5 (b) and SSP5-8.5 (c) scenario respectively. All changes are estimated in \r 2071-2100 relative to 1970--2000. A dot indicates regions with high model consistency (more than seven models out of nine show the same direction of change).\r (d) Global or regional potential exposure (% to the total population affected by flooding) under different global warming levels with a constant population scenario and climate \r of CMIP5-HELIX (circle, Alfieri et al., 2017) and CMIP6 (triangle, Hirabayashi et al., 2021b), and with the population scenario of SSP5 and climate of CMIP6 (bar chart, Hirabayashi \r [...]"


id: 1023022f5c3fbb91906c96dcff012c91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25
content:
"[...] et al., 2021b). Inundation is calculated when the magnitude of flood exceeds current flood protection (Scussolini et al., 2016). Note that number of GCMs used to calculate global \r warming level (GWL) 4.0 is less than that for other GWLs, as the global mean temperature change of some GCMs did not exceed 4degC."


id: 2751914b401b0069cb5d7eaf24af21c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4088
content:
"Challenges to projecting flood risk are large because of the complexity of \r the projecting snowmelt, high-intensity rainfall and soil wetness in large \r river basins. Even though increases in the number and area of glacier \r lakes may cause increases in glacier-related floods (Section  4.2.2), \r knowledge of the frequency or magnitude of glacier-related projected \r floods is limited. Some local studies indicate that the severity of ice-jam \r flooding is projected to decrease (Rokaya et al., 2019; Das et al., 2020), \r but a model study in Canada projected increases in damage of ice-jam \r floods (Turcotte et al., 2020). While most flood risk projections do not \r consider the impact of urban expansion, Guneralp et al. (2015) estimate \r that urban areas exposed to flooding will increase by a factor of 2.7 \r due to urban growth by 2030 (Section  4.5.4). Given the significant \r differences in assumption in flood protection, exposure or vulnerability \r [...]"


id: 385262b20f173ee3e69681e7f12e0eac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7118
content:
"[...] scenario among studies, uncertainties in the global estimation of flood \r losses and damages are large are large (Table 4.6, 4.7.5)."


id: 27c25709c7773d282df73b5355f14f12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4185
content:
"In a study with multiple climate models, global water models and \r scenarios, the choice of drought definition was the dominant source \r of uncertainty in the sign of projected change in drought frequency \r in over 17% of global land by 2070-2099, including several major \r wheat- and maize-growing areas where agricultural (soil moisture) \r drought is of high importance (Satoh et al., 2021). Cook et al. (2020a) \r noted that in the CMIP6 projections, soil moisture and runoff drying \r are more robust, spatially extensive and severe than precipitation, \r resulting in the frequency of agricultural drought increasing over wider \r areas than for meteorological drought. At 1.5degC global warming, the \r likelihood of extreme agricultural (soil moisture) drought is projected \r to at least double (100% increase) over large areas of northern South \r America, the Mediterranean, western China and high latitudes in \r North America and Eurasia (Figure 4.18, left column). The likelihood \r [...]"


id: 24b972d17ae5f83d9ffb2e98876169e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3657
content:
"[...] is projected to increase by 150-200% in these regions at 2degC global \r warming, with an expansion of the affected areas, and increase by \r over 200% at 4degC global warming. Agricultural drought likelihood also \r increases by 100-250% at 4degC global warming in southwestern North \r America, southwest Africa, southern Asia and Australia. The likelihood \r of extreme drought is projected to decrease in central North America, \r the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, the eastern Indian sub-continent and parts \r of western and eastern Asia. Using eight global hydrological models \r driven by a subset of four of the CMIP5 climate models, Lange et al. \r (2020) projected a 370% (30-790%) increase of the global population \r annually exposed to agricultural (soil moisture) droughts in response \r to 2degC global warming. Therefore, it is essential to consider the drought \r [...]"


id: 808052e9ffaf370c0b1dfe626adb9942
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19737
content:
"[...] type when applying drought projections to impact and risk in decision\u0002making, especially for informing adaptation. For example, if responses \r are explicitly tailored to agricultural (soil moisture) drought changes, \r projected changes in a meteorological (precipitation) drought metric \r may not provide accurate information."


id: 6c8c14d71d5628605f4098f49b745b36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16387
content:
"In summary, there is high confidence that the magnitude and frequency \r of floods are projected to increase in many regions, including Asia, \r central Africa, western Europe, Central and South America and eastern \r North America, and decrease in northern North America, southern South \r America, the Mediterranean and eastern Europe. Projected increases in \r flooding pose increasing risks, with a 1.2-1.8 and 4-5 times increase \r in global GDP loss at 2degC and 4degC compared to 1.5degC warming, \r respectively (medium confidence). Without adaptation, projected \r increases in flooding are 1.4 to 2.5 and 2.5 to 3.9 times in global GDP \r loss at 2degC and 3degC compared to 1.5degC warming, respectively (medium \r confidence). However, regional differences in risks are large because \r of the strong influence of socioeconomic conditions and significant \r uncertainty in flood hazard projection. In small river basins and urban \r [...]"


id: bae98c322d9e5da7c10ed7c171a4aebd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30099
content:
"[...] areas, there is medium confidence that projected increases in heavy \r rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local flooding. \r However, the snowmelt floods are projected to decrease (medium \r confidence) and occur 25-30 d earlier in the year by the end of the \r 21st century with RCP8.5 (high confidence)."


id: e4e0933ed09852b6f81a9ae33b7f5cc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37552
content:
"2020). However, the level of uncertainties in representing the effects of \r CO2 is still very high, precluding conclusive results in a global analysis \r (de Kauwe et al., 2013; Prudhomme et al., 2014; Yang et al., 2016). \r Most CMIP6 climate models include CO2 physiological effects, but \r many hydrological models used for impacts studies do not.\r Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is the sum of continental water stored \r in canopies, snow and ice, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, soil \r and groundwater (Pokhrel et  al., 2021). TWS drought can therefore \r 4.4.6 Projected Changes in Groundwater\r AR5 concluded that the range of projected future changes in \r groundwater storage was large, from statistically significant declines \r to increases due to several uncertainties in existing models (Jimenez \r Cisneros et al., 2014). AR6 (Douville et al., 2021) concluded with high \r confidence that projected increases in precipitation alone cannot ensure \r [...]"


id: 4b84a083654cc981f0415bff4b792365
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10544
content:
"[...] an increase in groundwater storage under a warming climate unless \r unsustainable trends in groundwater extraction are also reversed."


id: 42878bd16268f9d02b4df23d83bcd11e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8901
content:
"groundwater recharge or storage, eight reported an increase and the \r rest showed no substantial change (Amanambu et al., 2020). A global\u0002scale multi-model ensemble study projected decreasing recharge in \r southern Chile, Brazil, central continental USA, the Mediterranean \r and East China, but consistent and increasing recharge for northern \r Europe and East Africa (Reinecke et al., 2021). In continental Spain, a \r modelling study (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2018) projected significant \r reductions in groundwater recharge in the central and southeast \r region but a small and localised increase in east and northeastern \r areas. In subarctic Alaska, increased contribution of glacier melts to \r streamflow and aquifer recharge under a warming climate is projected \r (Liljedahl et  al., 2017). In contrast, over the Iranian and Anatolia \r Plateaus, groundwater recharge is projected to reduce by ~77% in \r the spring season (March-May) due to a decrease in snowfall (Wu \r [...]"


id: cc1225d6c97e81ea2f4d96bd7cad8bba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33224
content:
"[...] et al., 2020). Overall, several recent studies of climate change impacts \r on groundwater in different parts of the world have concluded that \r projected groundwater recharge could either increase or decrease, \r and results are often uncertain (high confidence) (Meixner et al., 2016; \r Zaveri et al., 2016; Hartmann et al., 2017; Mehran et al., 2017; Tillman \r et al., 2017; Kahsay et al., 2018; Herbert and Doll, 2019)."


id: 912a843c2bc59140db0e7eada0ee7e66
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22743
content:
"Climate change is also projected to impact groundwater-dependent \r ecosystems and groundwater quality negatively (medium confidence). \r Projected increase in precipitation intensity and storms can contaminate \r groundwater by mobilising contaminants such as chemical fertilisers, \r pesticides and antibiotics and leaching of human waste from pit \r latrines into groundwater (Amanambu et al., 2020; Lall et al., 2020). By \r 2050, environmentally critical streamflow is projected to be affected in \r 42-79% of the world's watersheds. The majority of these watersheds \r currently experience intensive groundwater use, and changes in critical \r streamflow are projected to negatively impact aquatic ecosystems (de \r Graaf et al., 2019). Using a global synthesis of 9404 data points from \r 32  countries across six continents, McDonough et  al. (2020) report \r increases in DOC concentrations in groundwater following projected \r changes in precipitation and temperature. For example, hotspots \r [...]"


id: 9df60385e927103740505fbef7cd9cfe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25025
content:
"[...] of high DOC concentration (increases of up to 45%) are associated \r mainly with increased temperatures in the wettest quarter of the year \r in the southeastern USA under RCP8.5 scenarios."


id: ffd2812ec7688584e10eb9f2eac75073
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42402
content:
"Quantitative projections on climate-induced water quality degradation \r are sparse. Aminomethylphosphonic acid and glyphosate are \r projected to exceed drinking water quality standards in dry years \r in a high-emissions scenario in the Meuse River in Europe by 2050 \r (Sjerps et al., 2017). From 2020 to 2050, based on scenarios RCP2.6, \r RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the incidences of total nitrogen pollution are \r projected as 97.3, 97.1 and 94.6%, respectively, in drought-flood \r abrupt alternation months compared to 69.3, 69.7 and 67.5% in \r normal months in the Luanhe River basin in China (Bi et al., 2019). \r From 2012 to 2050, freshwater river area is expected to decrease from \r 40.8% to 17.1-19.7% under different sea level rise scenarios in the \r southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh (Dasgupta et al., 2013). Under \r the warming scenario of +4.8degC increase by the end of the century, the \r average nutrient abundance is projected to triple in a shallow lake in \r [...]"


id: 2a8d19d209a8e275e79bd63daf0897f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4714
content:
"Observed sectoral water-related impacts have been documented across \r world regions. Climate change is projected to further exacerbate many \r of these risks, especially at warming levels above 1.5degC (Figure 4.20). For \r some sectors and regions, climate change may also hold the potential \r for beneficial outcomes, though feedback and cascading effects \r as well as risks of climate extremes are not always well understood \r and often underestimated in impact projections. Risks manifest as a \r consequence of the interplay of human and natural vulnerability, sector\u0002specific exposure as well as the climate hazard as a driver of climate \r change. Challenges to water security are driven by factors across these \r components of risk, where climate change is but one facet of driving \r water insecurity in the face of global change. While the focus of this \r chapter is on climate change and its effects on water security, for many \r [...]"


id: b34bb1d833652d76d7028d51cb042793
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28787
content:
"[...] sectors and regions the dynamics of socioeconomic conditions is a core \r driver. They play an essential role in understanding and alleviating water \r security risks. The following sections outline sectoral risks for both, risks \r driven by water-related impacts, such as drought, flood or changes in \r water availability, as well as risks with effects on water uses, mainly \r focusing on changing water demand as a consequence of climate \r change. It therefore does not cover all climate change-driven risks to \r the respective sectors, but is limited to those that stand in relation to \r water. The focus within this chapter is on global to regional processes \r (additional regional to local information in Table SM4.4; Figure 4.20 as \r well as across regional chapters of this report)."


id: a0cb7e0174e2ceca228a1d9eaef12f9a
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25499
content:
"Globally, climate change is estimated to be responsible for 30-66% \r increase of soil erosion by 2070, while socioeconomic developments \r impacting land use may lead to +- 10% change of soil erosion (Borrelli \r et al., 2020). At a regional scale, different effects of the climate change \r impact on soil losses are found owing to the ensemble experiments \r with climate models coupled with regional/local models of soil \r erosion and sediment yield. In the 21st century, the soil erosion rates \r are projected to increase for the European countries (Czech Republic \r (Svoboda et al., 2016), Belgium (Mullan et al., 2019), Spain (Eekhout \r et  al., 2018; Eekhout and de Vente, 2019a; Eekhout and De Vente, \r 2019b), Germany (Gericke et al., 2019)) by 10-80% depending on the \r emission scenario and time period of the projection, as well as for the \r USA (Garbrecht and Zhang, 2015) and Australia (Yang et al., 2015b; \r Zhu et al., 2020). Only a few studies demonstrated decreasing trend \r [...]"


id: d726c81320d4c78a4a09db5ce22340e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35162
content:
"[...] in soil erosion, for example, up to 9% with RCP8.5 scenario in Greece \r (Vantas et al., 2020). Sediment yield is projected to both increase (5-"


id: 20444f57c5672b1109943f92715a4f52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2893
content:
"To stabilise yields against variations in moisture availability, irrigation \r is the often the most common adaptation response (Section  4.6.2, \r Box  4.3). Projections indicate a potentially substantial increase in \r irrigation water requirements (Boretti and Rosa, 2019). Increasing \r agricultural water demand is driven by various factors, including \r population growth, increased irrigated agriculture, cropland expansion \r and higher demand for bio-energy crops for mitigation (Chaturvedi \r et al., 2015; Grafton et al., 2015; Turner et al., 2019; 4.7.6). Depending \r on underlying assumptions and the constraints on water resources \r implemented in the global agricultural models, irrigation water \r requirements are projected to increase two- to three-fold by the end of \r the century (Hejazi et al., 2014; Bonsch et al., 2015; Chaturvedi et al., \r 2015; Huang et al., 2019). While the combined effects of population \r and land use change as well as irrigation expansion account for the \r [...]"


id: fa8fc31d0002746474f75dd8059ac5ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41455
content:
"[...] significant part of the projected increases in irrigation water demand \r by the end of the century, around 14% of the increase is directly \r attributed to climate change (RCP6.0) (Huang et al., 2019)."


id: 218e60d8aeb20abf6361c064e62f99cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3113
content:
"With various degrees of water stress being experienced under current \r conditions and further changes in regional water availability projected, \r as well as continuing groundwater depletion as a consequence of \r over-abstraction for irrigation purposes (Sections  4.2.6 and 4.4.6), \r limitations to major irrigation expansion will occur in some regions, \r including South and Central Asia, the Middle East and parts of North and \r Central America (Grafton et al., 2015; Turner et al., 2019). Constraining \r projections of available irrigation water through consideration of \r environmental flow requirements further reduces the potential for \r irrigation capacity and expansion (Bonsch et  al., 2015). Changes in \r land use and production patterns, for example, expansion of rain-fed \r production and increasing inter-regional trade, would be required to \r meet growing food demand while preserving environmental flow \r requirements, though this may increase local food security-related \r [...]"


id: 6a2cec3e57ab7b9615baabd25b3a354a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15956
content:
"[...] vulnerabilities (Cross-Chapter Box  INTERREG in Chapter 16) (Pastor \r et al., 2014). Where climate impacts on yields are not a consequence \r of water limitations (mainly for C4 crops), irrigation cannot offset \r negative yield impacts (Levis et al., 2018)."


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"For hydropower production at a global scale, Turner et  al. (2017) \r projected an uncertainty in the direction of change in global hydropower \r production to the tune of +5% to -5% by the 2080s, under a high\u0002emissions scenario. On the other hand, van Vliet et al. (2016b) projected \r an increase in global hydropower production between +2.4% to +6.3% \r under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the 2080s, as compared to a \r baseline period of 1971-2000, but with significant regional variations \r (high confidence). For example, regions like central Africa, India, central \r Asia and northern high-latitude areas are projected to see more than \r 20% increases in gross hydropower potential (high confidence). On the \r other hand, southern Europe, northern Africa, southern USA and parts \r of South America, southern Africa and southern Australia are projected \r to experience more than 20% decreases in gross hydropower potential. \r [...]"


id: 40b75e359678a0ba99356be486210514
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] The Mediterranean region is projected to see almost a 40% reduction \r in hydropower production (high confidence) (Turner et al., 2017). On \r the other hand, northern Europe and India are projected to add to their \r hydropower production capacity due to climate change by mid-century \r (high confidence) (van Vliet et al., 2016b; Turner et al., 2017; Emodi \r et al., 2019)."


id: a64def1d47b8ef9cbeaa0fa01376bad8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"Mekong Basin, the total hydropower generation is projected to decline \r by 3.0% and 29.3% under 1.5degC and 2degC, respectively (Meng et al., \r 2021). In this context, 1.5degC will come up in 2036 under RCP2.6 and \r in 2033, under RCP6.0; and 2degC will come up in 2056 under RCP6.0 \r (Frieler et al., 2017a). In India, hydropower production is projected to \r increase by up to 25% by the end of the 21st century due to increased \r temperature and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario. However, \r hydropower production is projected to decline in plants located in \r snow-dominated rivers due to earlier snowmelt (Ali et al., 2018). In \r Colombia, hydropower production is projected to decrease by ~10% \r under the RCP4.5 dry scenario by 2050 (Arango-Aramburo et al., 2019). \r In a sub-basin of the Amazon River (one of the hydropower hotspots \r in Brazil), dry-season hydropower potential is projected to decline by \r -7.4 to -5.4% from historical baseline conditions under RCP4.5 (Arias \r [...]"


id: fd86ac1d8665b5f7139b4a781141784
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] et al., 2020). In the Sao Francisco basin of Brazil, hydropower production \r is projected to reduce by -15% to -20% by 2100 under the IPCC A1B \r scenario (de Jong et al., 2018), which will affect the Brazilian energy \r mix in the future. In Ecuador, under various policy pathways and dry \r and wet scenarios under RCP4.5, hydropower production is projected \r to increase by +7% to +21% or decline by -25% to -44% by 2050 \r (Carvajal et al., 2019). In Europe, different impacts are projected across \r different sub-regions (WGII, Chapter 13, Table 13.7- Projected climate \r change risks for energy supply in Europe by 2100). In northern Europe, \r up to 20% of hydropower potential increases are projected under 3degC \r warming; increases of up to 15% and 10% are projected under 2degC and \r 1.5degC warming levels. In Mediterranean parts of Europe, hydropower \r potential reductions of up to -40% are projected under 3degC warming; \r [...]"


id: c14213c7b2d4e35fbbbebb9ecd082743
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] while reductions below -10% and -5% are projected under 2degC \r and 1.5degC warming levels, respectively (van Vliet et al., 2016b; Tobin \r et al., 2018). Hydropower plants in Switzerland are projected to lose \r ~1.0 TWh of hydroelectricity production per year by 2070-2090 due to \r net glacier mass loss in the earlier part of the century (Schaefli et al., \r 2019). In the Italian Alps, under the warmest scenario of RCP8.4, up \r to 4% decreases in hydropower production are projected (Bombelli \r et  al., 2019). The magnitude of change differs significantly among \r models. In California, USA, the average annual hydropower generation \r is expected to decline by 3.1% under RCP4.5 by 2040-2050, compared \r to the baseline 2000-2010 (Tarroja et al., 2016). In the Skagit River \r basin in the USA, hydropower generation is projected to increase by \r 19% in the winter/spring and decline by 29% in summer by the 2080s \r (Lee et al., 2016)."


id: 828517947075bd62ca3c232d905a98d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In Asia, under a 2degC global warming scenario, coal power plants' \r annual usable capacity factor in Mongolia, Southeast Asia and parts \r of China and India are projected to decrease due to water constraints \r (Wang et  al., 2019b). In the EU, an assessment of 1326 thermal \r electric plants in 818 basins projected that the number of basins with \r water stress would increase from 47 in 2014 to 54 in 2030 (Behrens \r et  al., 2017) with consequent impacts on cooling water supplies. In \r the western USA, by 2050, vulnerable power plants are projected to \r lose 1.1-3.0% of average summer generation capacity, which could \r rise to 7.2 to 8.8% loss under a 10-year drought condition (Bartos \r and Chester, 2015). Further, 27% of thermoelectric production in the \r USA may be at severe risk of low-capacity utilisation due to water \r stress by 2030 (Ganguli et al., 2017). Thermoelectric plant capacity on \r the hottest summer day in the USA and EU is projected to fall by 2% \r [...]"


id: d9d0a3b503fa267020ba9c31ab2bced6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] under a 2degC global warming and by 3.1% under a 4degC global warming, \r requiring overbuilding of electricity infrastructure by 1-7% given the \r current energy mix portfolio (Coffel and Mankin, 2020). A systematic \r review showed consistent decreases in mid to end of the century in \r thermal power production capacity due to insufficiency of cooling \r water in southern, western and eastern Europe (high confidence); \r North America and Oceania (high confidence), central, southern \r and western Asia (high confidence) and western and southern \r Africa (medium confidence) (Emodi et al., 2019). Overall, apart from \r emissions benefits, moving away from thermal power generation to \r other renewable energy will also lower the chances of climate-induced \r curtailment of energy production (high confidence)."


id: 5dfe18d8b59f7d2c90fd36eb541218c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13835
content:
"Global freshwater demand for the energy sector is projected to increase \r under all 2degC scenarios due to the rapid increase in electricity demand \r in developing countries (Fricko et al., 2016). Despite the water shortage \r and climate change impacts, industry and energy sectors' share in global \r water demand has been projected to rise to 24% by 2050 (UN Water, \r 2020), which will increase the competition among various water-use \r sectors (Boretti and Rosa, 2019). Furthermore, mining activities, which \r are highly dependent on sufficient water availability, are also at risk \r due to climate change (Aleke and Nhamo, 2016). Given that some of \r the intensely mined regions, such as the Atacama Desert in Chile, are \r already water-scarce, even small changes in rainfall could destabilise \r water-intensive mining operations and affect the production and \r processing activities at mines (Odell et al., 2018). Overall, there is a \r [...]"


id: 5d4434f77c4a8bdd165cdbb2ab4d56ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13686
content:
"[...] lack of literature on the impact of climate change on future mining \r activities and other water-intensive industries."


id: 70e09d96c27bcd90bfd1e84f29494811
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17124
content:
"Apart from climate impacts on hydropower production, climate\u0002induced flood loads and reservoir water level change may lead to \r dam failure under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios (Fluixa-Sanmartin \r et al., 2018; Fluixa-Sanmartin et al., 2019) (medium confidence). For \r example, the incidence of 100-year floods in the Skagit River basin \r in the USA and peak winter sediments are projected to increase by \r 49% and 335%, respectively, by 2080, necessitating fundamental \r changes in hydropower plant operation. Nevertheless, some risks, such \r as floods, will remain unmitigated even with changes in hydropower \r operation rules (Lee et al., 2016). Overall, impacts of future extreme \r events on energy infrastructure have been less studied than impacts of \r gradual changes (Cronin et al., 2018). Furthermore, future hydropower \r development may also impact areas of high freshwater megafauna \r in South America, South and East Asia and in the Balkan region, and \r [...]"


id: bbee11c8b850525f3c452b0282103d61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"levels of treatment compliance and boiling water before consumption \r offset the projected impact of climate change on giardiasis in Canada \r in the 2050 scenario, but could not wholly offset the projected impact \r in 2080 (Smith et  al., 2015). Climate change impacts on WaSH\u0002attributable disease burden are also projected to delay China's progress \r towards disease reduction by almost 9% under RCP8.5 (Hodges et al., \r 2014). Disruptions in the drinking water supply can lead to increased \r household water storage, potentially increasing vector larvae breeding \r habitats (see Section  3.6.3). In combination with the projected \r expansion of vector ranges given climate change (Liu-Helmersson et al., \r 2019), there is the potential for increased risk of vector-borne disease \r during periods of water shortage or natural disasters (Section 4.3.3). \r Moreover, energy requirements for water and wastewater treatment \r are indirectly responsible for GHG emissions, while the breakdown of \r [...]"


id: bc7d4b5230d4c05eacb0115c105be8fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] excreta contributes directly to emissions (Box 4.5, Section 4.7.6). These \r contributions need to be better articulated and accounted for as part of \r the WaSH and climate change dialogue (Dickin et al., 2020)."


id: 69c844ca63e6e93ebec91efd09473aeb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 15879
content:
"Waterborne diseases result from complex causal relationships between \r climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that are not fully \r understood or modelled (Boholm and Prutzer, 2017) (high confidence). \r WaSH-related health risks are related to extreme events, harmful \r algal blooms and WaSH practices (Chapter 7 WGII 7.3.2). In addition, \r changes in thermotolerance and chlorine resistance of certain viruses \r have been observed in laboratory experiments simulating different \r temperatures and sunlight conditions (Carratala et al., 2020), increasing \r potential health risks even where traditional water treatment exists \r (Jimenez Cisneros et  al., 2014) (low confidence). Studies show that \r degraded water quality increases the willingness to pay for clean \r water regardless of national economic status. However, payment for \r clean, potable water, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, \r can represent a significant percentage of people's income, limiting \r [...]"


id: dba9e0cc55b646748d6e574f16ff6d49
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 35937
content:
"[...] economic well-being and the possibility for re-investment in other \r livelihoods or activities (Constantine et al., 2017; van Houtven et al., \r 2017; Price et al., 2019)."


id: 9b49a4346d08a4f5b90955ab27f718e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24567
content:
"Collectively, drinking water treatment, sanitation and hygiene interrupt \r disease transmission pathways, particularly for water-related diseases. \r However, WaSH systems themselves are vulnerable to extreme events \r (Section 4.3.3). For example, sewage overflows resulting from heavy \r rainfall events are expected to increase waterborne disease outbreaks \r (Khan et al., 2015). High diarrhoeal disease burdens mean that small \r changes in climate-associated risk are projected to have significant \r impacts on disease burdens (Levy et  al., 2018). For example, up to \r 2.2 million more cases of E. coli by 2100 in Bangladesh under a 2.1degC \r GWL are projected (Philipsborn et al., 2016), while up to an 11-fold \r and 25-fold increase by 2050 and 2080, respectively, under a 2-4degC \r GWL, in disability-adjusted life years, associated with cryptosporidiosis \r and giardiasis in Canada is projected (Smith et al., 2015). In addition, \r [...]"


id: f0c42920e9327a51942be3b648dbfdea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 39723
content:
"[...] an additional 48,000 deaths of children under 15 years of age globally \r from diarrhoea by 2030 are also projected (WHO, 2014). Notably, high "


id: b383d55a4824255db61c03bbf00eccea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"In nearly a third of the world's largest cities, water demand may exceed \r surface water availability by 2050, based on RCP6.0 projections and \r the WaterGAP3 modelling framework (Florke et al., 2018). Under all \r SSPs, the global volume of domestic water withdrawal is projected to \r reach 700-1500 km3 yr-1 by 2050, indicating an increase of 50 to 250%, \r compared to the 2010 water use intensity (400-450 km3 yr-1) (Wada \r et  al., 2016). Increasing water demand by cities is already spurring \r competition between cities and agricultural users for water, which is \r expected to continue (Garrick et al., 2019) (Section 4.5.1). By 2030, \r South and Southeast Asia are expected to have almost three quarters \r of the urban land under high-frequency flood risk (10.4.6). South Asia, \r South America and mid-latitudinal Africa are projected have the largest \r urban extents exposed to floods and droughts (Guneralp et al., 2015). \r An analysis of 571 European cities from the Urban Audit database \r [...]"


id: bd6ee762d77b9f1e0905400bdc483385
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 30587
content:
"Globally, climate change is projected to exacerbate existing challenges \r for urban water services. These challenges include population growth, \r the rapid pace of urbanisation and inadequate investment, particularly \r in less developed economies with limited governance capacity (high \r confidence) (Ceola et  al., 2016; van Leeuwen et  al., 2016; Reckien \r et al., 2017; Tapia et al., 2017; Veldkamp et al., 2017). More specifically, \r in Arusha (Tanzania), a combination of urban growth modelling, \r satellite imagery and groundwater modelling projected that rapid \r urbanisation would reduce groundwater recharge by 23-44% of 2015 \r levels by 2050 (under business as usual and an RCP8.5 scenario), \r causing groundwater levels to drop up to 75 m (Olarinoye et  al., \r 2020). Flood risk modelling showed a median increase in flood risk \r of 183% in 2030 based on baseline conditions in Jakarta (Indonesia) \r with flood risks increasing by up to 45% due to land use changes \r [...]"


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"[...] alone (Budiyono et al., 2016). A probabilistic analysis of surface water \r flood risk in London (UK) using the UKCP09 Weather Generator (with \r 10th and 90th percentile uncertainty bounds) found that the annual \r damage is expected to increase from the baseline by 101% and 128% \r under 2030 and 2050 high-emission scenarios, respectively (Jenkins \r et al., 2018)."


id: ecd7d73dab86f937ab3db5f9e774e4ab
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content:
"Modified streamflow is projected to affect the amount and variability \r of inflow to urban storage reservoirs (high confidence), which may ex\u0002acerbate existing challenges to urban reservoir capacity, such as sed\u0002imentation and poor water quality (Goharian et al., 2016; Howard et al., \r 2016; Yasarer and Sturm, 2016). For example, in Melbourne (Australia), \r a combination of stochastic hydro-climatological modelling, rainfall\u0002runoff modelling and climate model data projects a mean precipitation \r shift over catchments by -2% at 1.5degC and -3.3% at 2degC, relative to \r 1961-1990. Considering an annual water demand of 0.75 of the mean \r yearly inflow, the median water supply shortage risk was calculated to \r be 0.6% and 2.9% at 1.5degC and 2degC warming levels, respectively. At \r the higher demand level of 0.85 of the mean annual inflow, the median \r water shortage risk is higher, between 9.6% and 20.4% at 1.5degC and \r [...]"


id: a89d0076f160710edab53ce93cf85f21
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content:
"[...] 2degC warming, respectively, without supply augmentation desalination \r (Henley et al., 2019)."


id: e699839712e9462479e8047a737cdef1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
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vector_id: 37865
content:
"These are several examples of such projected changes. Due to higher \r water temperatures, changes in macroinvertebrates and fish are \r projected under all future warming scenarios (Mantyka-Pringle et al., \r 2014). Decreased abundance of many fish species, such as salmonids, \r under higher temperatures, is also projected, although the effects \r between species are variable (Myers et  al., 2017). Poleward and \r shifts of freshwater species are projected as they try to stay within \r preferred cooler environmental conditions (Pecl et  al., 2017). Other \r anticipated changes include physiological adjustments with impacts \r on morphology with some species shrinking in body size because \r large surface-to-volume ratios are generally favoured under warmer \r conditions (Scheffers et al., 2016) and changes in species communities \r and food webs as a consequence of increases in metabolic rates in \r response to increased temperatures with the flow-on effects for \r [...]"


id: 48e49d3ab586e34e278a5be2db327f84
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10044
content:
"[...] many ecosystem processes (Woodward et al., 2010). Changes in the \r seasonality of flow regimes and variability (Bloschl et  al., 2019b) \r and more intermittent flows (Pyne and Poff, 2017) are also projected \r and could result in decreased food chain lengths through the loss of \r large-bodied top predators (Sabo et al., 2010) and changes in nutrient \r loadings and water quality (Woodward et al., 2010). The impacts on \r freshwater systems in drylands are projected to be more severe (Jaeger \r et al., 2014; Gudmundsson et al., 2016). Changes to snow and glacier \r melting, including the complete melting of some glaciers (Leadley "


id: 6ae3b0fd67d048dc5b03b9b2cb776d41
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16089
content:
"et al., 2014; Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017), are projected to reduce water \r availability and cause declines in biodiversity in high altitudes through \r local extirpations and species extinctions in regions of high endemism. \r Lake nutrient dynamics are expected to change, for example, at \r 2degC warming, and net increase in CH4 emissions by 101-183% in \r hypereutrophic lakes and 47-56% in oligotrophic lakes in Europe are \r projected (Sepulveda-Jauregui et al., 2018). Similarly, under the high\u0002GHG emission scenario, lake stratification is projected to begin 22.0 \r +- 7.0 d earlier and end 11.3 +- 4.7 d later by the end of this century \r (Woolway et al., 2021). While overall future trends on climate change \r on freshwater species and habitats are largely negative, evidence \r indicates that different species are projected to respond at different \r rates, with interactions between species expected to be disrupted and \r which may result in novel biological communities and rapid change in \r [...]"


id: fb3df61e2e5d663a24f32b34420989e5
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41577
content:
"In general, the projected population growth in at-risk areas, especially \r in low-income countries, is expected to increase future migration \r and displacement (McLeman et  al., 2016; Rigaud et  al., 2018). For \r example, a study looking at potential flood exposure found that low\u0002income countries, particularly in Africa, are at higher risk for flood\u0002induced displacement (Kakinuma et  al., 2020). One model, focusing \r on slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, crop failure \r and sea level rise, projected between 31-72 million people (RCP2.6, \r SSP4) and 90-143 million people (RCP8.5, SSP4) internally displaced \r by 2050 in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America (Rigaud \r et  al., 2018). Another estimate, incorporating temperature increase \r and precipitation, projects that asylum applications to the EU could \r increase by between 0.098 million (RCP4.5) and 0.66 million (RCP8.5) \r yr-1, as a consequence of temperature increases in agricultural areas \r [...]"


id: f518c28748550380268db3233bcc4c74
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vector_id: 40486
content:
"[...] of low-income countries (Missirian and Schlenker, 2017) (limited \r evidence; medium agreement)."


id: fdeed6572caa074aa98bee003006f752
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42043
content:
"Anthropogenic climate change has impacted every aspect of the water \r cycle (Section  4.2), and risks are projected to intensify with every \r degree of global warming (Section 4.4), with impacts already visible in \r all sectors of the economy and ecosystems (Section 4.3) and projected \r to intensify further (Section  4.5). In response to climate- and non\u0002climate-induced water insecurity, people and governments worldwide \r are undertaking various adaptation responses across all sectors. In \r addition, there are several projected studies for future adaptation \r responses. We draw upon a list of 359 case studies of observed \r adaptation and 45  articles on projected future adaptation. Further \r information on selection and inclusion criteria is available in SM4.2. \r In this section, we document those adaptation responses (current \r and future) in different water use sectors. In the next (Sections 4.7.1, \r 4.7.2, 4.7.3), benefits of current adaptation and effectiveness of future \r [...]"


id: 37ca9042283b5141dd9c7f7cc84121d9
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content:
"(b) Assessment result of all variables. For each region, physical changes, impacts on ecosystems and impacts on human systems are shown. For physical changes, upward/\r downward triangles refer to an increase/decrease, respectively, in the amount or frequency of the measured variable, and the level of confidence refers to confidence that the change \r has occurred. For impacts on ecosystems and human systems, plus or minus marks depict whether an observed impact of hydrological change is positive (beneficial) or negative \r (adverse), respectively, to the given system, and the level of confidence refers to confidence in attributing an impact on that system to a climate-induced hydrological change. The \r hydrological impact may be different to the overall change in the system; for example, over much of the world, crop yields have increased overall, largely for non-climatic reasons, \r [...]"


id: 7906de93578b9c19e0822ed483ee59c3
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"[...] but in some areas, hydrological impacts of climate change are countering this. Circles indicate that within that region, both increase and decrease of physical changes are found, \r but are not necessarily equal; the same holds for cells showing 'both' assessed impacts. Cells assigned 'n.a.' indicates variables not assessed due to limited evidences. Decrease \r (increase) in water quality refers to adverse (positive) change in quality. Agriculture refers to impacts on crop production. Note: Energy refers to impacts on hydro and thermoelectric \r power generation. Ecosystems refers to impacts on freshwater ecosystem."


id: 1ab3830687c54b4e5993c418aba8de5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1900
content:
"Increasing hydrological extremes also have consequences for the \r maintenance and further improvement of the provision of WaSH \r services (medium confidence). Risks related to the lack or failure of \r WaSH services under climate change include increased incidence \r and outbreaks of water-related diseases, physical injuries, stress, \r exacerbation of the underlying disease, and risk of violence, which \r is often gendered (Section  4.5.3). Although globally, the regional \r potential infestation areas for disease-carrying vectors could be five \r times higher at 4degC than at 2degC (Liu-Helmersson et al., 2019), climate \r projections suggest up to 2.2 million more cases of E. coli by 2100 (2.1degC \r increase) in Bangladesh (Philipsborn et al., 2016), up to an 11-fold and \r 25-fold increase by 2050 and 2080, respectively (2degC-4degC increase), \r in disability-adjusted life years associated with cryptosporidiosis and \r giardiasis in Canada (Smith et  al., 2015), and an additional 48,000 \r [...]"


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"Small islands are already regularly experiencing droughts and freshwater shortages (high confidence) (Holding et al., 2016; Pearce et al., \r 2018; Gheuens et al., 2019; MacDonald et al., 2020). Freshwater supply systems vary from household or small community systems such \r as rainwater harvesting systems and private wells to large public water supply systems using surface, groundwater and, in some cases, \r desalinated water (Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018b; Falkland and White, 2020). In many cases, communities rely on more than one water \r source, including a strong reliance on rainwater and groundwater (Elliott et al., 2017; MacDonald et al., 2020). Groundwater resources \r in freshwater lenses (FWLs) are essential in providing access to freshwater resources, especially during droughts when the collected \r rainwater is insufficient (Barkey and Bailey, 2017; Bailey et al., 2018), leading to greater risks of water-borne diseases, with significant \r [...]"


id: 67d35097dfcafe9229cd918366a2a225
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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"[...] effects on nutrition (Elliott et al., 2017; Savage et al., 2020), and improper sanitation poses additional risks to the limited groundwater \r resources (MacDonald et al., 2017). Drought events have also severely affected FWL recharge (Barkey and Bailey, 2017), with extraction \r rates further threatening available groundwater volumes (Post et al., 2018). In conjunction with sea level rise, this poses serious risks to \r groundwater salinisation (Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018b; Storlazzi et al., 2018; Deng and Bailey, 2019). In addition, FWLs are threatened \r by climate change due to changes in rainfall patterns, extended droughts and wash-over events caused by storm surges and sea level \r rise (high confidence) (see Chapter 15) (Chui and Terry, 2015; Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018a; Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018b; Post et al., 2018; \r Storlazzi et al., 2018; Deng and Bailey, 2019). After small-scale wash over events, the FWLs have been shown to recover to pre-wash over \r [...]"


id: 67d35202eab5b3b494509de07eb3d198
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15539
content:
"Due to wash-over events exacerbated by sea level rise and lens thinning due to pumping, recovery time for FWLs is projected to take \r substantially longer (Oberle et al., 2017; Alsumaiei and Bailey, 2018a; Storlazzi et al., 2018). Projections indicate that atolls may be unable \r to provide domestic freshwater resources due to the lack of potable groundwater by 2030 (RCP8.5+ ice-sheet collapse), 2040 (RCP8.5) or \r the 2060s (RCP4.5) (Storlazzi et al., 2018). Projections of future freshwater availability in small islands further underline these substantial \r risks to island water security (Karnauskas et al., 2016; Karnauskas et al., 2018). Population growth, changes in rainfall patterns and \r agricultural demand are projected to increase water stress in small islands (Gohar et al., 2019; Townsend et al., 2020). While some islands \r are projected to experience an increase in rainfall patterns, this may refer to shorter intense rainfall events, thereby increasing the risk \r [...]"


id: b30a639927bcad32bb2b0b4513b1cf0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] of flooding during the wet season, while not decreasing their risk of droughts during dry periods (Aladenola et al., 2016; Gheuens et al., \r 2019). In addition, projected shifts in the timing of the rainfall season might pose an additional risk for water supply systems (Townsend \r et al., 2020)."


id: a81c732cbed5f3f4b6a5322b6cd7f594
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26788
content:
"Observed adaptation during drought events includes community water sharing (Bailey et al., 2018; Pearce et al., 2018) as well as using \r alternative water resources such as water purchased from private companies (Aladenola et al., 2016), desalination units (Cashman and \r Yawson, 2019; MacDonald et al., 2020) or accessing deeper or new groundwater resources (Pearce et al., 2018). Rainwater harvesting to \r adapt the water supply system in the Kingston Basin in Jamaica was able to significantly alleviate water stress, for example. Still, it would \r not fill the total supply gap caused by climate change (Townsend et al., 2020). Likewise, groundwater sustainability with increasing climate \r change in Barbados cannot be ensured without aquifer protection, leading to higher optimised food prices if no additional adaptation \r measures are implemented (Gohar et al., 2019). The potential of using multiple water sources is rarely assessed in future water supply \r [...]"


id: a4cdbcdeab5532371afe1746c8550a78
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26223
content:
"[...] projections in small islands (Elliott et al., 2017). In the Republic of Marshall Islands, more than half of all interviewed households have \r already had to migrate once due to a water shortage (MacDonald et al., 2020). In Cariacou, Grenada, increases in migration rates have \r been observed following drought events (Cashman and Yawson, 2019). with long-term cross border and internal migration shown to be \r having significant impacts on well-being, community-cohesion, livelihoods and people-land relationships (Yates et al., 2021)."


id: a83b3f99027c37c2adf31bc7faff6ef1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26816
content:
"There is high confidence that water-related adaptation is occurring in \r the agricultural sector (Acevedo et  al., 2020; Ricciardi et  al., 2020), \r and water-related adaptation in the agricultural sector makes up \r the majority of documented local, regional and global evidence of \r implemented adaptation (high confidence) (Section 4.7.1, Figure 4.23 \r and Figure 4.24, Table 4.8). However, while there is increasing evidence \r of adaptation and its benefits across multiple dimensions, the link \r between adaptation benefits and climate risk reduction is unclear due \r to methodological challenges (medium confidence) (Section 4.7.1). On \r the other hand, while it is methodologically possible to measure the \r effectiveness of future adaptation in reducing climate risks, the main \r limitation here is that not all possible ranges of future adaptations \r can be modelled given the limitations of climate and impact models \r (high confidence) (Section  4.7.2). Furthermore, findings on current \r [...]"


id: 5f9bcb16fa36b10f3abcb79f4bfe4882
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14133
content:
"[...] adaptation are constrained by what is documented in peer-reviewed \r articles. At the same time, there may be a range of options implemented \r on the ground by local governments or as a part of corporate social \r responsibility that is not published in peer-reviewed publications."


id: a2e4aefb1005fd85e76bf629b0d17eff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25875
content:
"Conservation agriculture and climate-smart agriculture (includes \r improved cultivars and agronomic practices) have proven to increase \r soil carbon, yields and technical efficiency (Penot et  al., 2018; Salat \r and Swallow, 2018; Ho and Shimada, 2019; Makate and Makate, 2019; \r Okunlola et al., 2019). Some water-related measures in conservation \r agriculture include allowing for shading and soil moisture retention, \r with the co-benefit of reducing pest attacks (Thierfelder et al., 2015; \r Raghavendra and Suresh, 2018; Islam et  al., 2019a). Especially for \r traditional food grains in small-holder agriculture, improved practices \r such as modern varieties or integrated nutrient management can play \r an important role in making production more resilient to climate stress \r (Handschuch and Wollni, 2016). This measure is also among the top four \r most frequent adaptation measures in all continents except Australia \r and North America (Figure 4.27). In addition, this measure is shown to \r [...]"


id: 283a5895da55d17077e09508cc760afb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] have positive economic benefits (high confidence) and also benefits \r on other parameters (medium confidence) (Figure  FAQ4.4.1). Such \r approaches are also among those most frequently assessed for their \r effectiveness in addressing future climate change, but show limited \r effectiveness across warming levels (Figure 4.28 and Figure 4.29)."


id: a296e2e954627dd3012be4918bc166f0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25819
content:
"Water and soil conservation measures (e.g., reduced tillage, contour \r ridges or mulching) are frequently documented as adaptation responses \r to reduce water-related climate impacts (Kimaro et  al., 2016; Traore \r et al., 2017). This measure features in all continents' top four adaptation \r responses except Australasia (Figure  4.27). Especially for rain-fed \r farming, which currently is the norm in most of Africa, large parts of \r Central and South America and Europe, water and soil conservation \r measures and various components of conservation agriculture are some \r of the most frequently used adaptation responses (Jat et  al., 2019). \r This measure is deemed to have economic benefits and benefits for \r vulnerable communities who adopt this measure (high confidence) \r and benefits in terms of water saving and positive ecological and \r sociocultural benefits (medium confidence). However, this measure can \r be sometimes maladaptive (low evidence, medium agreement) and can \r [...]"


id: 1ac2f96bc60cec27d7d94e309cdf1772
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1909
content:
"[...] have mitigation co-benefits (low evidence, high agreement) (Figure 4.29). \r Furthermore, water- and soil management-related measures show high \r potential efficacy in reducing impacts in a 1.5degC world, with declining \r effectiveness at higher levels of warming (Figure 4.28 and Figure 4.29)"


id: cebb4b39f8bc538348fb613647608ed4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33710
content:
"The use of non-conventional water sources, that is, desalinated and \r treated waste water, is emerging as an important component of \r increasing water availability for agriculture (DeNicola et  al., 2015; \r Martinez-Alvarez et al., 2018b; Morote et al., 2019). While desalination \r has a high potential in alleviating agricultural water stress in arid \r coastal regions, proper management and water quality standards \r for desalinated irrigation water are essential to ensure continued \r or increased crop productivity. In addition to the energy intensity \r (Section 4.7.6), risks of desalinated water include lower mineral content, \r higher salinity, crop toxicity and soil sodicity (Martinez-Alvarez et al., \r 2018b). Similarly, waste-water reuse can be an important contribution \r to buffer against the increasing variability of water resources. However, \r waste-water guidelines that ensure the adequate treatment to reduce \r adverse health and environmental outcomes due to pathogens or \r [...]"


id: c8c74a6cfd9491a53f26bcdf99cb9fd2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32646
content:
"[...] other chemical and organic contaminants will be essential (Angelakis \r and Snyder, 2015; Dickin et al., 2016) (Box 4.5; 4.6.4)."


id: ffea1d2be6c989790362e39c77cc79f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42419
content:
"Policies, institutions and capacity building are important adaptation \r measures in agriculture and often have beneficial outcomes, but the \r quality of studies precludes a high degree of certainty about those \r impacts (Figure  FAQ4.4.1). Access to credits, subsidies or insurance \r builds an important portfolio of reducing reliance on agricultural \r income alone (Rahut and Ali, 2017; Wossen et al., 2018). Training and \r capacity building are essential tools to ensure effective adaptation in \r agriculture, increasing food security (Chesterman et al., 2019; Makate \r and Makate, 2019). Through better understanding, the implementation \r of available responses reduces exposure to climate impacts. In \r addition, public regulations, including water policies and allocations \r and incentive instruments, and availability of appropriate finance \r play an essential role in shaping and enabling (Sections 4.8.5, 4.8.6, \r 4.8.7), but also limiting (Section 4.8.2), water-related adaptation for \r [...]"


id: a4ffb17d64a1a156b51f74747ea67e21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26252
content:
"Diversifying energy portfolios to reduce water-related impacts on \r the energy sector is another effective adaptation strategy with high \r mitigation co-benefits. A modelling study from Europe shows that \r for a 3degC scenario, an energy mix with an 80% share of renewable \r energy can potentially reduce the overall negative impacts on the \r energy sector by a factor of 1.5  times or more (Tobin et  al., 2018). \r In addition, hydropower can also play a role in compensating for the \r intermittency of other renewable energies (Francois et al., 2014). For \r example, integrating hydro, solar and wind power in energy generation \r strategies in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can potentially \r deliver multiple benefits, including decarbonisation, compliance with \r environmental flow norms and reduce potential conflicts among Nile \r riparian countries (Sterl et al., 2021). Furthermore, reducing the share \r of thermoelectric power with solar and wind energy (Tobin et al., 2018; \r [...]"


id: eb98dab935b7795946954d371e5ca73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38816
content:
"[...] Arango-Aramburo et al., 2019; Emodi et al., 2019) can be synergistic \r from both climate and water perspectives, as solar and wind energy \r have lower water footprints (high confidence)."


id: c16be66034a4fe891fdb30fbd81df820
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31332
content:
"Irrigation has consistently been used as a crop protection and yield enhancement strategy and has become even more critical in a \r warming world (Siebert et al., 2014). Approximately 40% of global yields come from irrigated agriculture, with a doubling of irrigated \r areas over the last 50 years and now constituting around 20% of the total harvested area (FAO, 2018b; Meier et al., 2018; Rosa et al., \r 2020b). Thus, irrigation is one of the most frequently applied adaptation responses in agriculture and features centrally in projections of \r adaptation at all scales. Expansions of irrigated areas over the coming century are projected, leading to shifts from rain-fed to irrigated \r agriculture in response to climate change (Malek and Verburg, 2018; Huang et al., 2019; Nechifor and Winning, 2019). However, there \r are regional limitations to this expansion due to renewable water resource limitations, including water quality issues (Zaveri et al., 2016; \r [...]"


id: f9d5e87b732cb73572580f91d05ccc75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 41315
content:
"[...] Turner et al., 2019). Depending on the specific spatial, temporal and technological characteristics of irrigation expansion, up to 35% of \r current rain-fed production could sustainably shift to irrigation with limited negative environmental effects (Rosa et al., 2020b)."


id: 27bd758ff945ddf33fab490a142d7785
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4178
content:
"Irrigation increases resilience and productivity relative to rain-fed production by reducing drought and heat stress on crop yields and by \r lowering ET demand by cooling canopy temperatures (Siebert et al., 2014; Tack et al., 2017; Li and Troy, 2018; Zaveri and B. Lobell, 2019; \r Agnolucci et al., 2020; Rosa et al., 2020b). Large-scale irrigation also affects local and regional climates (Cook et al., 2020b). While cooling \r effects, including reduction of the extreme heat due to irrigation, have been observed (Qian et al., 2020; Thiery et al., 2020), increases in \r humid heat extremes because of irrigation with potentially detrimental health outcomes have also been reported (Krakauer et al., 2020; \r Mishra et al., 2020). For the heavily irrigated North China Plain, a night-time temperature increase overcompensated daytime cooling \r effects, leading to an overall warming effect (Chen and Jeong, 2018). In addition, modification of rainfall patterns has been linked to \r [...]"


id: e619cf45b77d594cfd394c6c680984cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37780
content:
"[...] irrigation (Alter et al., 2015; Kang and Eltahir, 2019; Mathur and AchutaRao, 2020). For example, increases in extreme rainfall in central \r India in recent decades has been linked to the intensification of irrigated paddy cultivation in northwest India (Devanand et al., 2019)."


id: e576a1beba6a65af118d1096f198fef7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37676
content:
"Different irrigation techniques are associated with significant differences in irrigation water productivity (Deligios et  al., 2019), and \r replacing inefficient systems can reduce average non-beneficial water consumption by up to 76% while maintaining stable crop yields \r (Jagermeyr et al., 2015). Several adjustments can improve water use efficiency, including extending irrigation intervals, shortening the \r time of watering crops or reducing the size of the plot being irrigated (Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; da Cunha et al., 2015; Dumenu and \r Obeng, 2016). Deficit irrigation is an important mechanism for improving water productivity (Zheng et al., 2018) and increasing regional \r crop production under drying conditions (Malek and Verburg, 2018). Access to irrigation can also play a role in alleviating poverty, \r contributing to reducing vulnerability and risks (Balasubramanya and Stifel, 2020). However, the diversity of irrigation-related techniques \r [...]"


id: 6dd0b9fe46f0bab927c544d7d740d999
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16580
content:
"[...] and the consequent differences in effect and water-use intensity is often underreported (Vanschoenwinkel and Van Passel, 2018)."


id: 28e0b6667522052048102331d5d255d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4408
content:
"Asia accounts for 69-73% of the world's irrigated area. However, irrigation currently plays a relatively minor role in most of Africa, except in \r the contiguous irrigated area along the Nile basin and North Africa and South Africa (Meier et al., 2018). In India, long-term data (1956-1999) \r on the irrigated area shows that farmers adjust their irrigation investments and crop choices in response to medium-run rainfall variability \r (Taraz, 2017). da Cunha et al. (2015) report that farmers' income tends to be higher on irrigated lands in Brazil. In Bangladesh, farmers invest \r a part of their increased incomes in improving irrigation access (Delaporte and Maurel, 2018). The severity of drought increases the likelihood \r of farmers adopting supplementary irrigation in Bangladesh (Alauddin and Sarker, 2014). In Vietnam, irrigation improvement had the highest \r [...]"


id: 7563c74e27e81eed478e1429b02abb27
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vector_id: 17882
content:
"[...] positive impact on crop yield among all farm-level adaptive practices (Ho and Shimada, 2019). In South Africa, access to irrigation was one of \r the most important predictors of whether or not farmers would adopt a whole suite of other adaptation responses (Samuel and Sylvia, 2019)."


id: 954ef4f0fcf3ed8a6639be15d1e3f84a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23468
content:
"In light of the volume of irrigated agriculture globally, and the projected increase in water requirements for food production, increasing \r water productivity and thus improving the ratio of water used per unit of agricultural output is necessary globally to meet agricultural \r water demand (Section  4.5.1) (Jagermeyr et  al., 2015; Jagermeyr et  al., 2017). For example, assuming a doubling of global maize \r production by 2050 increased water productivity could reduce total water consumption compared to the baseline productivity by 20-\r 60% (Zheng et al., 2018). Under economic optimisation assumptions, shifts towards less water-intensive and less climate-sensitive crops \r would be optimal in terms of water use efficiency and absolute yield increases; however, this could pose risks to food security as \r production shifts away from main staple crops (Nechifor and Winning, 2019). Shifting currently rain-fed production areas to irrigation will \r [...]"


id: 262889ac73b0790d4ea0ab8588d6621c
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3881
content:
"[...] be an important element in ensuring food security with increasing temperatures, though investment in storage capacities to buffer \r seasonal water shortage will be essential to ensure negative environmental impacts are minimised (Rosa et al., 2020b)."


id: d032d6a74db10befb181d9a35e9c82ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33990
content:
"Effective adaptation strategies include protecting source water and \r managing both water supply and demand. Source water protection \r (Shaffril et al., 2020) has proven effective in reducing contamination. \r Improved integrated (urban) water resources management (Kirshen \r et al., 2018; Tosun and Leopold, 2019) and governance (Chu, 2017; \r Miller et al., 2020) and enhanced ecosystem management (Adhikari \r et  al., 2018b) lead to policies and regulations that reduce water \r insecurity and, when developed appropriately, reduce inequities \r (medium confidence). Supply (source) augmentation, including dams, \r storage and rainwater/fog harvesting, can increase the supply or \r reliability of water for drinking, sanitation and hygiene (DeNicola \r et  al., 2015; Pearson et  al., 2015; Majuru et  al., 2016; Poudel and \r Duex, 2017; Lucier and Qadir, 2018; Goodrich et  al., 2019) (high \r confidence). For example, rainwater harvesting in an Inuit community \r [...]"


id: d8f9202e3ec7cc27217fb1baa76a2b0a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35468
content:
"[...] increased water for hygiene by 17%, reduced water retrieval efforts \r by 40% and improved psychological and financial health (Mercer \r and Hanrahan, 2017). However, climate change impacts will affect \r amounts of rainwater available. A recent study concluded that \r domestic water demand met through rainwater harvesting generally \r improves under climate change scenarios for select communities \r in Canada and Uganda, with the exception of drier summers in \r some areas of Canada (Schuster-Wallace et  al., 2021). Further, it \r is important to recognise that many of these interventions require \r financial investments that make them inaccessible to the poorest \r (Eakin et  al., 2016). Demand for water can be decreased through \r reductions in water loss from the system (e.g., pipe leakage) (Orlove \r et  al., 2019) and water conservation measures (Duran-Encalada \r et al., 2017) (medium confidence)."


id: 91802ec39d7a176c316c25b3ab446131
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22814
content:
"Access to appropriate, reliable WaSH protects against water-related \r diseases, particularly after climate hazards such as heavy rainfalls and \r floods (Carlton et al., 2014; Jones et al., 2020). WaSH interventions have \r been demonstrated to reduce diarrhoea risk by 25-75% depending \r on the specific intervention (Wolf et  al., 2018) (high confidence). \r Conversely, inadequate WaSH is associated with an estimated annual \r loss of 50 million daily adjusted life years (Pruss-Ustun et al., 2019), \r of which 89% of deaths are due to diarrhoea, and 8% of deaths from \r acute respiratory infections (Chapter 7 WGII 7.3.2), making universal \r access to WaSH (i.e., achievement of SDG 6.1, 6.2) a critical adaptation \r strategy (high confidence). However, not all WaSH solutions are suited \r to all climate conditions (Sherpa et  al., 2014; Howard et  al., 2016), \r so health outcome improvements are not always sustained under \r changing climate impacts (Dey et al., 2019) (medium evidence, high \r [...]"


id: f9ea445bf8ae9fde6fb6fd80cf0bb4c5
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41334
content:
"[...] agreement). As such, WaSH infrastructure also needs to be climate\u0002resilient (Smith et al., 2015; Shah et al., 2020). In addition to new WaSH \r infrastructure design and implementation, expansion and replacement \r of existing infrastructure offer opportunities to implement climate\u0002resilient designs and reduce greenhouse emissions (Boholm and \r Prutzer, 2017; Dickin et al., 2020) (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: f0d8cd83015c546f26c9ebc325a6ad69
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content:
"(1.55) of mosquito larvae in water storage pots (Ferdousi et al., 2015), \r which could have even more significant impacts in the future given \r projected range expansion for vectors as a result of climate change \r (Liu-Helmersson et al., 2019). Other unintended consequences include \r pathogen contamination (Gwenzi et al., 2015) and time or financial \r trade-offs (Schuster et al., 2020) (medium evidence, high agreement). \r Wastewater reuse for irrigation may have adverse health impacts if \r wastewater is not treated (Dickin et al., 2016). Conversely, especially \r where women are responsible for domestic and productive water \r management, adaptive agricultural water strategies, such as water\u0002efficient irrigation or low-water crops, mean that less water from finite \r water supplies are used for agriculture, leaving more water locally \r available for domestic purposes (see section 4.6.2). These co-benefits \r across sectors become important community water stress adaptations \r [...]"


id: a37bf023fd70dcebc37bc32e1c3ae225
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25970
content:
"[...] (Chinwendu et al., 2017), with water savings from one use leading to \r more water available for other uses. This can reduce domestic water \r burdens and, therefore, gender inequities (Section  4.8.3) (limited \r evidence, high agreement). Further analyses of co-benefits, particularly \r employing a gender lens, are required to improve adaptation strategies \r (McIver et al., 2016)."


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"Compound disasters have arisen due to either the co-occurrence of drought, storms or floods and COVID-19. COVID-19 acts as a \r stress multiplier for women and girls in charge of water collection and minorities and disabled people who are not engaged in water \r management (Phillips et al., 2020; Rodriguez-Lonebear et al., 2020). Across the world, existing inequalities deepened due to lockdowns, \r which further limited access to clean water and education for women and girls, and reinstated gendered responsibilities of child, elderly \r and sick care, which had been previously externalised (Cousins, 2020; Neal, 2020; Zavaleta-Cortijo et al., 2020). Accordingly, COVID-19 \r has further steepened the path to reach SDGs 2, 3, 4, 5 and 11 (Lambert et al., 2020; Mukherjee et al., 2020; Neal, 2020; Pramanik et al., \r 2021). In addition, the pandemic exacerbated food insecurity in drought-affected eastern and southern Africa (Phillips et al., 2020; Mishra \r [...]"


id: 81423ace7c0000e8952f59feb69a03bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] et al., 2021). As the twin risk of COVID-19 and hurricanes on the US Gulf Coast (Pei et al., 2020; Shultz et al., 2020) and cyclone Amphan \r in Bangladesh (Pramanik et al., 2021) showed, increased hand washing, additional WaSH and evacuation and shelter infrastructures \r proved essential for preventing further spread of COVID-19 (Baidya et al., 2020; Ebrahim et al., 2020; Guo et al., 2020; Mukherjee et al., \r 2020; Pei et al., 2020; Shultz et al., 2020; Pramanik et al., 2021). Moreover, while immediate steps can be taken during disaster response \r to minimise climate-attributable loss of life, climate adaptation requires long-term strategies that intersect with pandemic preparedness \r (Phillips et al., 2020)."


id: 991a1a84a82bcc10208b9c47e37fa837
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"A systematic review of 132 academic papers and 32 articles from non\u0002peer-reviewed literature (Doswald et al., 2014) provided a comprehensive \r global overview of EbA, which showed that EbA interventions were \r used in various ecosystems, including inland wetlands (linked to 30 \r publications). An investigation of EbA effectiveness by Reid et  al. \r (2019), where nine case studies covering South Asia, Africa and South \r America were associated with freshwater systems, concluded that \r EbA enabled the enhancement of the adaptive capacity or resilience \r to climate change, particularly for the more vulnerable groups in the \r community. An assessment of the potential for EbA in three sub\u0002basins of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, concluded that EbA can \r augment catchment management practices but that there were also \r institutional challenges (Lukasiewicz et  al., 2016). In urban settings, \r EbA has been associated with ecological structures for reducing risks, \r [...]"


id: 4b5928dcc98a5a846b34f1981440cec7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10505
content:
"[...] including the use of urban wetlands (Barkdull and Harris, 2019). EbA is \r a subset of NbS that is rooted in climate change adaptation and covers \r both mitigation and adaptation (Pauleit et  al., 2017) (Section  4.6.5, \r Box  4.6). Although adaptation measures for freshwater ecosystems \r have been implemented in many places (Shaw et al., 2014; Lukasiewicz \r et al., 2016; Karim and Thiel, 2017; Milman and Jagannathan, 2017; \r FAO, 2018a; Piggott-McKellar et al., 2019b), the evidence base for the \r effectiveness of these measures to cope with changes in freshwater \r ecosystems needs improvement. These measures also require further \r financial support, mainstreaming across sectors and the scaling up of \r individual measures (medium confidence)."


id: 91c0552c17fda3c4c28064181e20008b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"It is estimated that 380  billion m3\r  of wastewater is produced annually worldwide, which equals about 15% of agricultural water \r withdrawals. The recovery of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium from wastewater can offset 13.4% of the global agriculture demand \r for these nutrients (Jimenez and Asano, 2008; Fernandez-Arevalo et  al., 2017). Recycling human waste worldwide could satisfy an \r estimated 22% of the global demand for phosphorus (UN Water, 2017). It has been estimated that some 36 million ha worldwide (some \r 12% of all irrigated land) reuse urban wastewater, mainly for irrigation. However, only around 15% is adequately treated (Thebo et al., \r 2017), thus the need to invest in sustainable, low-cost wastewater treatment to protect public health. The irrigation potential of this \r volume of wastewater stands at 42 million ha. Wastewater production is expected to increase globally to 574 billion m3\r  by 2050, a 51% \r [...]"


id: 43b13c10074a8ae7457dff92c5cd2e1b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] increase compared to 2015, mainly due to a growing urban population (Qadir et al., 2020). Water reuse with treated wastewater for \r potable and non-potable purposes can be practised in a manner that is protective of public health and the environment (WHO, 2006; \r WHO, 2017). For example, when implemented with sufficient treatment standards, the use of recycled water for the irrigation of crops is \r protective of public health (Blaine et al., 2013; Paltiel et al., 2016), as was determined by an appointed panel of experts in the state of \r California (Cooper et al., 2012). However, there are several barriers to the adoption of wastewater reuse; these include technical barriers \r and public health aspects related to microbiological and pharmaceuticals risks (Jimenez and Asano, 2008; Jaramillo and Restrepo, 2017; \r Sauri and Arahuetes, 2019). These are currently being addressed by strengthening regulatory standards, with, for example, 11 out of 22 \r [...]"


id: 9dbb9ee883973ce0d5fe64929b57494
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content:
"[...] Arab States adopting legislation permitting the use of treated wastewater (WHO, 2006; US EPA, 2017; WHO, 2017; EC, 2020). Benefits of \r wastewater reuse usually outweigh the costs (Stacklin, 2012; Hernandez-Sancho et al., 2015; UN Water, 2017)."


id: 1f143b3b428cefab7bd2b949d06d210d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Desalination is particularly important in arid and semiarid climates, coastal cities and small island states (Box 4.2). There were 16,000 \r operational desalination plants globally in 2017, with a daily desalinated water production of 95 million m3\r  d-1 (IDA, 2020). In 2012, \r desalinated water was equivalent to 0.6% of the global water supply, and 75.2 TWh of energy per year was used to generate desalinated \r water; in other words, about 0.4% of the worldwide electricity consumption (IRENA, 2012). Unfortunately, only 1% of total desalinated \r water uses renewable sources (IRENA, 2012; Amy et  al., 2017; Balaban, 2017; Martinez-Alvarez et  al., 2018a; Jones et  al., 2019) \r (Section 4.7.6). Desalination has already helped to meet urban and peri-urban water supply, particularly during annual or seasonal \r drought events, with half of the world's desalination capacity in the Arab region (UN Environment, 2019; UN Water, 2021). In addition, \r [...]"


id: 85048ff92abc1bf5c9e18e82fc7810ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] seawater desalination could help address water scarcity in 146 (50%) large cities (including 12 (63.2%) megacities) (He et al., 2021). \r Desalination is also being adopted for irrigation. For example, in the island of Gran Canary (Spain), 30% of the agricultural surface area \r is irrigated with desalinated water to irrigate high-value crops (Burn et al., 2015; Martinez-Alvarez et al., 2018a; Monterrey-Vina et al., \r 2020). The expected growth of desalination, if not coupled with renewable energy (RE), causes a projected 180% increase in carbon \r emissions by 2040 (GCWDA, 2015; Pistocchi et al., 2020). There have been advances in large-scale and on-farm renewable desalination \r (Abdelkareem et al., 2018). Using renewable energy to decarbonise desalination has meant that the projected global average levelled \r cost of water could decrease from EUR2.4 m-3 (2015) to approximately EUR1.05 m-3 by 2050, considering unsubsidised fossil fuel costs (Caldera \r [...]"


id: f9fa2bbfb83b9cb4a7f88eb06b9c68ba
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content:
"[...] and Breyer, 2020). Desalination will be maladaptive if fossil fuel is used (Tubi and Williams, 2021)."


id: 34436ab768d4f4c41dc734ce1b80f24f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6431
content:
"There is high confidence that some Indigenous Peoples, local \r communities and traditional peoples could adapt, and are adapting \r to climate-driven hydrological changes and their impacts on culturally \r significant sites, species, ecosystems and practices in polar, high\u0002mountain and coastal areas, where sufficient funding, decision-making \r power and resourcing exist (e.g., Golden et al., 2015; Bunce et al., 2016; \r Anderson et al., 2018). However, there is also high confidence that there \r are significant structural barriers and limits to their adaptation, and \r that the outcomes of some adaptation strategies can be uneven and \r maladaptive (medium evidence, high agreement) (Sections 4.7.4; 4.8.3). \r These barriers include the lack of recognition of Indigenous Peoples' \r sovereignty and exclusion of Indigenous Peoples from decision-making \r institutions (Ford et al., 2017; Labbe et al., 2017; Eira et al., 2018; McLeod \r [...]"


id: 6a423aa80bdcecc75ead88d7816d3cea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] et al., 2018; MacDonald and Birchall, 2020) (14.4.4.2.2; 13.8.1.2). At the \r same time, the rate and scale of climate change can impede the ability \r of vulnerable communities to turn their adaptive capacity into effective \r adaptation responses (Ford et al., 2015; Herman-Mercer et al., 2019)."


id: 77283081404242daedcce64cc83b6d61
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18164
content:
"Spontaneous migration, undertaken without outside assistance, \r has shown the potential to improve the resilience of migrants and \r communities (Call et  al., 2017; Jha et  al., 2018a), but may also lead \r to increased vulnerability and insecurity in some instances (Adger \r et al., 2018; Linke et al., 2018a; Singh and Basu, 2020). Migration is \r not a viable strategy for everyone, but age, gender and socioeconomic \r status play a significant role in encouraging or inhibiting the chances \r of successful migration (Maharjan et al., 2020; Bergmann et al., 2021; \r Erwin et al., 2021). Migration has increased vulnerability among women \r and female-headed households (Patel and Giri, 2019), but has also \r triggered gender-positive processes such as increased female school \r enrolment (Gioli et al., 2014) (medium confidence). Remittances, that is, \r transfers of money from migrants to beneficiaries in sending areas, may \r reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity to climate-induced \r [...]"


id: ebed57c1614d36e8732f9f9a3c583b58
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38873
content:
"[...] hydrological changes (Ng'ang'a et al., 2016; Jha et al., 2018b) (medium \r confidence). Managed retreat refers to the planned and assisted \r moving of people and assets away from risk areas, such as government\u0002or community-led resettlement (Hino et  al., 2017; Maldonado and \r Peterson, 2018; Tadgell et al., 2018; Arnall, 2019). Such initiatives may \r reduce exposure to risk (Lei et al., 2017). However, they often fail to \r include affected populations in the process and may lead to greater \r impoverishment and increased vulnerability (Wilmsen and Webber, \r 2015) (medium confidence)."


id: 581b24729811a5f3a19ebfecb2377fda
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12757
content:
"There is high confidence that local people are adapting to the cultural \r impacts of climate-driven glacier retreat and decline in snow cover \r and ice in polar and high-mountain areas. However, there is also high \r confidence that such adaptation can be detrimental and disrupt local \r cultures. For example, in the Peruvian Andes, concerns about water \r availability for ritual purposes has led to restrictions on pilgrims' removal \r of ice and limiting the size of ritual candles to preserve the glacier \r (Paerregaard, 2013; Allison, 2015). Relatedly, some local people have \r questioned the cosmological order and have reoriented their spiritual \r relationships accordingly (Paerregaard, 2013; Carey et  al., 2017). In \r Siberia (Mustonen, 2015) and northern Finland (Turunen et al., 2016), \r community-led decisions among herders favour alternative routing, \r pasture areas and shifts in nomadic cycles in response to changing \r [...]"


id: 538c1e5fce73f500dcb4fd6d0af709ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] flood events and permafrost conditions (Box 13.2). However, loss of \r grazing land and pasture fragmentation pose adaptation limits, and \r some strategies such as supplementary feeding and new technologies \r may further affect cultural traditions of herding communities (Risvoll \r and Hovelsrud, 2016; Jaakkola et al., 2018)."


id: 913eae133aa412ba47e464d9aaa5dee2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"Globally, structural measures for flood protection through hard infrastructure are the most common measures as they directly manage \r flood hazards by controlling flow through streams and prevent water overflow (Andrew and Sauquet, 2017; Duzi et al., 2017). These \r measures include dikes, flood control gates, weirs, dams, storage and proper waste management (Barua et al., 2017; Egbinola et al., \r 2017). Infrastructure measures require high maintenance, such as dredging and clearing channels and overpasses (Egbinola et al., 2017). \r A negative aspect of protective infrastructural measures is that, while they eliminate the hazard up to a certain magnitude (Di Baldassarre \r et al., 2013), they also generate an illusion of no risk by diminishing frequent floods (Duzi et al., 2017; Logan et al., 2018). In addition, specific \r engineering solutions that might be introduced from other localities without proper contextual adjustments may lead to maladaptation \r [...]"


id: 6f038b909763ef1fe12387a3a6e15cdc
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content:
"[...] (Mycoo, 2014; Pritchard and Thielemans, 2014). NbS (Box 4.6) have shifted infrastructure measures from purely grey onto mixed engineering \r and environmental measures. Examples include SUDS, which aid in decreasing flow peaks and are affordable, aesthetically pleasing and \r socially acceptable while also reducing heat and hence the production of storms (Chan et al., 2019) (Section 4.6.5)."


id: 89b0ddbdba1be13bd6aa659c4dc3fb5b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"Non-structural or soft measures for flood adaptation include human actions that generate capacities, information and, therefore, \r awareness of floods (Du et al., 2020). Soft measures aim to integrate flood resilience within city management and planning (Wijaya, \r 2015; Andrew and Sauquet, 2017; Abbas et al., 2018). Social support between members of a community and economic mechanisms \r such as loans or remittances are soft measures that promote recovery or resilience to floods (Barua et al., 2017; Musah-Surugu et al., \r 2018; Bott and Braun, 2019). Communities with heightened awareness and knowledge of floods are probably going to elect political \r leaders that will affect flood protection and policies that include adaptation (Abbas et al., 2018). Soft measures can be an anchoring \r factor for policies that promote early warning systems, infrastructure, flood-resilient housing and environmental restoration (Andrew \r [...]"


id: bf0268885ae62860a30b98be34ad614d
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content:
"[...] and Sauquet, 2017; Abbas et al., 2018). However, soft measures, especially at large scale, may also lead to maladaptation, such as lack \r of synchronisation between international, national and local levels (Hedelin, 2016; Lu, 2016; Jamero et al., 2017), and can further be \r hampered by bureaucracy (Pinto et al., 2018)."


id: e16379fd1d8454445a9ed7376134dcd5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"We define an adaptation response as a water-related adaptation if the \r hazard is water-related (e.g., floods, droughts, extreme rainfall events, \r groundwater depletion, melting and thawing of cryosphere, Figure 4.25) \r or the adaptation intervention is water-related (e.g., irrigation, rainwater \r harvesting, soil moisture conservation, etc.). Adaptation responses were \r implemented across all water use sub-sectors assessed in this chapter \r (Section  4.6, Figure  4.23). Given the overall interest in assessing \r adaptations that documents outcomes, we limited our analysis to a set \r of 359 unique articles that measure outcomes of adaptation across pre\u0002defined outcome categories (SM4.2, Table SM4.5; Berrang-Ford et al., \r 2021a; Mukherji et  al., 2021). A total of 1054 adaptation responses \r were documented in the 359 case studies; these were categorised \r into 16 categories (Figure  4.22). These adaptation responses are not \r [...]"


id: cb96594f1df81b4528a0216a8770bceb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"[...] always specific to long-term climate change impacts (that is, changes \r in annual mean fluxes), but rather respond to changes in variability \r in the water cycle and specific water hazards. Adaptation to internal \r variability is needed to increase the resilience to projected water cycle \r changes because water cycle changes primarily manifest as changes in \r variability (Douville et al., 2021)."


id: 7d18e808ebd3d436a12fc23bad7666a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19195
content:
"The previous section documented adaptation responses in water use \r sectors we assess in this chapter (Section 4.6), and noted that in many \r instances, effectiveness of those responses is not clear. While there \r are thousands of case studies of implemented adaptation responses \r (observed adaptation) to water insecurity, there is a lack of synthesised \r understanding about the effectiveness and benefits of adaptation \r (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021a) and whether or not those benefits also \r translate into climate risk reduction (Singh et al., 2021). In contrast, \r literature on the effectiveness of future projected adaptation in reducing \r climate risks is limited in number. Yet, even then, the findings are not \r synthesised across various options to make an overall assessment of \r the effectiveness of future projected adaptation. In this section, we \r draw on two meta-review protocols (see SM4.2 for a description of \r each protocol) and assess the benefits of current adaptation and \r [...]"


id: 1165129b505d341c98e9040227cbf879
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 256
content:
"[...] effectiveness of future projected adaptation in reducing climate risks. \r We also assess limits to adaptation and trade-offs and synergies \r between adaptation and mitigation."


id: 69005bd3dc102be055dbffd3f982ff88
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15745
content:
"There is high confidence that a significant share of water-related \r adaptations is occurring in the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts \r for 60-70% of total water withdrawals (Hanasaki et al., 2018; Burek \r et al., 2020; Muller Schmied et al., 2021) and supports the livelihoods \r of a large majority of people in the developing countries. Within the \r agriculture sector, there is high confidence in the quality and quantity \r of evidence of adaptation responses such as improved cultivars and \r agronomic practices, on-farm irrigation and water management and \r water and soil moisture conservation, and medium confidence, derived \r from robust evidence, and medium agreement for other most other \r adaptation responses (Figure  4.23 and Figure  4.24). Most of these \r adaptation case studies are from Asia and Africa, and agriculture is \r the predominant sector where most of these adaptation responses \r are being implemented (high confidence) (Section  4.6.2). However, \r [...]"


id: 42f611c9d3ac0569ba1eac8ad8de48e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8977
content:
"[...] the sectoral nature of adaptation responses varies across continents. \r Agriculture is the most important sector in all continents, except \r Europe and Australasia, where most adaptation occurs in the urban \r sector (high confidence) (Figure 4.24)."


id: 945ab9adf4c1e84cc635bb27d76e8dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23308
content:
"Figure  4.23 |   Sectoral distribution of documented water-related adaptation responses (observed adaptation) across the 16 categories derived from \r Figure 4.22. The quantity of evidence is derived from the number of papers in a particular adaptation response category where high is > 40 papers, medium is 10-40 papers and \r low is < 10 papers. Confidence in evidence relates to the way the article links outcomes of adaptation with the adaptation response. Category 1: studies causally link adaptation \r outcomes to the adaptation response by constructing credible counterfactuals; category 2: studies correlate responses and outcomes without causal attribution; category 3: studies \r describe adaptation outcomes without making any causal or correlation claims between adaptation outcomes and adaptation responses. High confidence: more than 67% of the \r [...]"


id: 4e31fd8a4a1a202ab04c1f179c5a7ab8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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vector_id: 11026
content:
"[...] studies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50-67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2, and low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories 1 and 2."


id: efa66b9007bbe910fabf3bff2b34fb73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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content:
"The top four adaptation responses in terms of frequency of documentation \r are changes in the cropping pattern and crop systems (145 responses), \r improved crop cultivars and agronomic practices (139 responses), \r irrigation and water management practices (115 responses) and \r water and soil conservation measures (102 responses). These top four \r responses provide several benefits such as higher incomes and yields, \r better water use efficiencies and related outcomes (high confidence) \r (Table 4.9 and Figure 4.27). However, those benefits are incremental, \r that is, they help improve crop production and incomes, at least in the \r short run, but may not automatically lead to transformative outcomes \r and climate risk reductions (Pelling et al., 2015; Fedele et al., 2019). One \r way to move from incremental to transformative adaptation could be \r to invest gains from incremental adaptation in education and capacity \r [...]"


id: a4f1bc849c6d1e51927952fd545df996
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26242
content:
"[...] building to improve overall adaptive capacity (Vermeulen et al., 2018). \r Responses such as migration, including spontaneous and planned \r relocation, are also relatively well documented (medium confidence), as \r are responses such as collective action, training and capacity building \r and economic and financial measures for increasing adaptive capacities \r (medium confidence). These categories of adaptation can potentially \r lead to transformative outcomes, such as a shift to livelihoods that are \r less exposed to climate hazards. However, transformative pathways are \r not always straightforward (Pahl-Wostl et al., 2020) (Table 4.8)."


id: f5aa953370c7c0cb90847d1c5fd0a507
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40587
content:
"impacts on vulnerable people, for example, on women, children and \r Indigenous Peoples; (c) water-related impacts, for example, improved \r water use efficiency, water saving, reduction in water withdrawals and \r application; (d) ecological and environmental impacts such as lesser \r energy use, better soil structures and better thermal comfort.; (e) \r institutional and sociocultural impacts such as improved social capital \r and stronger communities of practice, equity; and strengthening of local \r institutions or national policies. Of these 359 studies, 319 documented \r beneficial outcomes across one or more indicators, while the remaining \r 40 presented no beneficial outcomes. Illustrative examples are shown \r in Table  4.9, while the distribution of these responses with positive \r outcomes is shown in Figure  4.27, and indicates that economic \r benefits of adaptation are more common in developing countries, \r while benefits along ecological dimensions are more common in the \r [...]"


id: 6ca68d866ce8f593a0f79ab6bf2147eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16402
content:
"In summary, current adaptation responses have benefits across several \r dimensions. In developing countries, most adaptation measures \r improve economic outcomes (high confidence). Adaptation responses \r also have benefits in terms of water outcomes and environmental \r and ecological parameters, and these benefits are more commonly \r manifested in developed countries (high confidence). Of the papers \r assessed for water-related adaptation, roughly one fourth reported \r adaptation co-benefits (high confidence). In contrast, one third of \r studies reported maladaptive outcomes, now or in the future (high \r confidence), emphasizing the importance of looking at synergies and \r trade-offs. Despite many adaptation case studies, there is a knowledge \r gap in understanding if the benefits of adaptation also translate into a \r reduction of climate impacts, and if so, to what extent, and under what \r conditions (high confidence). In view of this critical knowledge gap, \r [...]"


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"Adaptation responses that focus on improving incomes through \r production intensification can have maladaptive outcomes. An oft\u0002cited example of this is groundwater overuse as a result of irrigation \r intensification. There is widespread evidence of groundwater overuse \r in many countries in Africa (Mapfumo et al., 2017), in the Middle East \r and North Africa (Petit et al., 2017; Daly-Hassen et al., 2019), in Asia \r (Burchfield and Gilligan, 2016; Zhang et  al., 2016b; Kattumuri et  al., \r 2017), in Spain (Petit et al., 2017) and in Australia (Kirby et al., 2014) \r (Sections  4.2.6, 4.6.2, Box  4.3). Intensification-based approaches also \r increase costs of cultivation (Mussetta et al., 2016; Wang and Chen, 2018; \r Quan et al., 2019), and can lead to more use of fertilisers and herbicides \r (Thierfelder et al., 2015; Sujakhu et al., 2016; Khanal et al., 2018a; Yamba \r et al., 2019). Diversification away from food crops can also compromise \r [...]"


id: 320bfaaf6f48b76c339e4c55a7608f4d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6063
content:
"Changes in cropping patterns and crop systems (Figure  4.28) (five \r studies; 31 data points) indicate limited potential to reduce projected \r climate risks, with the majority of studies providing results of up to 1.5degC \r of warming and limited evidence for higher warming levels. At 1.5degC, \r effectiveness in Africa is mostly insufficient, with substantial maladaptive \r potential (Brouziyne et al., 2018). Over Asia, effectiveness is mostly small \r at 1.5degC with substantial residual impacts, further reducing to insufficient \r effectiveness at large residual risks at 4degC (Figure  4.28 Projected \r effectiveness) (robust evidence; medium agreement) (Boonwichai et al., \r 2019; Dai et  al., 2020; Mehrazar et  al., 2020). Amongst the options \r related to changes in cropping patterns and crop systems, shifting \r planting dates is projected to retain moderate to high residual risks \r under some specifications in Iran (Paymard et al., 2018) and Morocco \r [...]"


id: 4c3f0aef7183b18f02be4bf2b03be439
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10676
content:
"[...] (Brouziyne et al., 2018), while high effectiveness is reported for similar \r specifications in Thailand (Boonwichai et al., 2019), Australia (Luo et al., \r 2016), Morocco ((Brouziyne et al., 2018) and Iran (Mehrazar et al., 2020). \r Of the assessed adaptation options, changes in cropping patterns and \r cropping systems appear least effective in reducing climate risk, with \r decreasing effectiveness at higher levels of warming."


id: f02bde398711975fe3096fc9ffd9e02b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39643
content:
"Studies assessing the future effectiveness of irrigation-related \r responses (Figure  4.28) focus on a range of specific approaches, \r including increasing irrigation efficiency, deficit irrigation, irrigated \r area expansion or shifting from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture, as \r well as specific types of irrigation (21 studies; 103 data points). As a \r frequently implemented option with direct entry points to agricultural \r models, this option provides the most robust set of data points across \r regions and warming levels. For all regions, a reduction in effectiveness \r is apparent from 1.5degC to higher levels of warming, leading to increased \r residual risk with increasing warming (high confidence). Irrigation \r can increase yield relative to present day, showing co-benefits for \r some regions, though the share of co-benefits decreases with higher \r warming (high confidence) (Figure 4.28). However, since many of these \r [...]"


id: 673b425f062c7170618cf0013c26f2bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15437
content:
"[...] studies rely on global agricultural models which do not fully represent \r the actual availability of water, further expansion of irrigation at the \r scale assumed in those studies may not be realistic (Sections 4.3.1.2. \r 4.3.1.3) (Elliott et al., 2014)."


id: f4e79e6f4c7b5c91557362259f0c2f15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40452
content:
"In practice, responding to increasing climate risk will need to be context\u0002specific and sufficiently agile to respond to ever-changing realities on the \r ground. The adaptive pathways approach underline that a sequence of \r different options responding to climate change over time may be most \r effective (Babaeian et al., 2021). In addition, impact models generally \r underestimate or underrepresent climate extremes (Schewe et  al., \r 2019), limiting the ability of the present analysis to reflect adaptation \r requirements to extremes, which are likely to push systems to their limits \r (Section 4.7.4). While currently known structural adaptation responses \r can reduce some of the projected risks across sectors and regions, \r residual impacts remain at all levels of warming, and effectiveness \r decreases at higher levels of warming. Adaptation generally performs \r more effectively at 1.5degC, though residual damages are projected at this \r [...]"


id: 72b3fa5f705c029c50e4128a1c778e08
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17424
content:
"[...] warming level across sectors and regions (high confidence). A range of \r options also shows the potential for further increasing negative effects \r (maladaptation) across sectors, regions and warming levels, further \r underlining the need for contextualised approaches."


id: bdad1b19d5b27e6723eb253d7cb859d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30632
content:
"Water-related adaptation is being observed across sectors and regions \r (Section 4.6), and beneficial outcomes are documented across different \r dimensions (Section  4.7.1). A limited set of frequently documented \r adaptation responses is also represented in quantitative projections \r of adaptation effectiveness (Section  4.7.2, Figure  4.29). However, \r due to the largely different assessment methodologies for measuring \r beneficial outcomes for current adaptations and effectiveness to reduce \r impacts for future adaptations, comparing current and future adaptation \r outcomes is not straightforward. For current adaptation responses, \r beneficial outcomes may or may not translate to climate risk reduction, \r making risk reduction potential of observed adaptation a significant \r gap in our current understanding. The large diversity of outcomes across \r regions and assessed options becomes apparent for future adaptation \r [...]"


id: 66235a141ab05b9e70bf228ad3600140
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15233
content:
"[...] options, with the group of 'inconclusive' outcomes indicating a large \r spread of results across regions. This underlines the contextual nature \r of adaptation and boundary conditions for implementation that can \r determine the success of adaptation outcomes, now or in the future."


id: ff11a580c5d20ab7620673c061182653
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42280
content:
"Figure 4.29 |  The panel on the left side shows observed benefits of adaptation. Observed outcomes are reported across five dimensions of benefits, co-benefits and \r maladaptation outcomes. Benefits are measured across five dimensions. Strength of evidence is high if >80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial \r outcome; medium if between 50 and 80% of adaptation responses in that category have at least one beneficial outcome, and low if <50% of adaptation responses have at \r least one beneficial outcome. Confidence in evidence relates to the way the article links outcomes of adaptation with the adaptation response. Category 1: studies causally link \r adaptation outcomes to the adaptation response by constructing credible counterfactuals; category 2: studies correlate responses and outcomes without causal attribution; category \r [...]"


id: be0cffbbc56f9f0afc5ca3ce9eea0abb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30701
content:
"[...] 3: studies describe adaptation outcomes without making any causal or correlation claims between adaptation outcomes and adaptation responses. High confidence: more than \r 67% of the studies fall in categories 1 and 2; medium confidence: 50-67% of the studies are in categories 1 and 2; low confidence is less than 50% of studies are in categories \r 1 and 2. The panel on the right-hand side shows the effectiveness of future adaptations. Future outcomes are assessed in terms of their effectiveness to reduce climate impacts at \r 1.5degC, 2degC, 3degC and 4degC of global temperature increase relative to 1850-1900. Effectiveness is defined as the fraction of adaptation that the option is able to reduce; residual risk \r is the fraction of risk remaining after adaptation. If >66% of assessed data points agree on the effectiveness class, a response-temperature combination is shown as belonging to \r [...]"


id: b0d627bfae83c28744b914acdbfa667c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28337
content:
"[...] that class. Where results diverge, the result is inconclusive, with studies showing high and low effectiveness across regions and studies. Confidence is based on the number of data \r points available for each response-temperature combination with high confidence: 5 or more data points; medium confidence: 2-4 data points; low confidence: 1 data point. Also, \r see Figure 4.28 for further explanations, and Tables SM4.5 and SM4.6 provide underlying data."


id: 3e09730f8de2c9066d0d52f5f5abcc03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8082
content:
"adaptation that is happening now cannot be modelled for the future. \r Therefore, projections of future adaptation effectiveness are limited \r to those options that can be incorporated into (global) quantitative \r climate impact models. Unfortunately, an extensive range of options, \r such as capacity building or training, migration and employment, which \r are essential building blocks in the portfolio of available (water-related) \r adaptation options, are currently not quantitatively represented in \r adaptation projections. In addition, the future will probably bring \r further development in technical solutions, which are currently also \r not modelled. While implementing the modelled technical options may \r be feasible in general, several barriers and constraints (Section 4.7.4) \r and enabling conditions, which influence adaptation action in practice, \r are not included in current modelling studies. Therefore, the modelling \r [...]"


id: 8e9bfbb28cbfcd980e96224dbbdd7245
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22273
content:
"Institutionalconstraints, including path dependency and lengthy decision\u0002making processes, remain major limitations to successful adaptation \r globally (high confidence) (Barnett et al., 2015; Oberlack, 2017), as well \r as for the water sector (Kingsborough et al., 2016; Oberlack, 2017; Azhoni \r and Goyal, 2018). For example, a lack of institutional support has limited \r the ability of farmers to implement adaptation, even if information about \r the benefits is acknowledged (Nambi et al., 2015). A lack of inter-sectoral \r coordination and communication within institutions and conflicting \r interests between water sectors limit the potential for integrated \r policies. For all water-related adaptation options, which have shown to \r be effective in one or more dimensions (Section  4.7.1.2), governance \r and institutional constraints were identified to be the most commonly \r encountered to a moderate or significant extent (Figure 4.30). Water-\r [...]"


id: efa01541a197ff5294a5255f6d503c8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39537
content:
"[...] energy-food nexus approaches can help overcome these inter-sectoral \r barriers (Box 4.8) (Rasul and Sharma, 2016; Ernst and Preston, 2017). In \r addition, trade-offs between different policy goals must be considered \r to ensure the broader significance of the implemented adaptation \r strategies, such as water quality implication of adaptation efforts in the \r agricultural or energy sectors (Section 4.7.6) (Fezzi et al., 2015)."


id: 9f29ae4a910fe35d7657d06dd5d1f6d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:53
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25223
content:
"While financial barriers played an important role in adopting new \r technologies at the farm level in Spain, acceptance, common \r understanding and awareness were amongst the most frequently \r identified barriers across different adaptation options (Esteve et  al., \r 2018). Limitations in knowledge and understanding of complex \r processes, feedback effects and interconnections in the water sector \r pose challenges to effective adaptation and adaptation decision\u0002making (Kundzewicz et  al., 2018). Such constraints are identified \r as moderate across the range of options assessed in this chapter \r (Figure  4.30). For tropical and mountainous regions and the African \r continent, in particular, significant uncertainties in available data \r and a lack of reliable climate projections remain one of the biggest \r obstacles in long-term adaptation planning (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2015), \r especially in the water sector (Watson et al., 2017; Azhoni and Goyal, \r [...]"


id: cf257ea9801f38c8655b5ffc80c51401
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33791
content:
"[...] 2018; Hirpa et  al., 2018; Gonzalez-Zeas et  al., 2019). There is also \r often a discrepancy between the level of awareness among different \r stakeholders, for example, between affected farmers whose agency is \r limited by the lack of knowledge by local authorities (Chu, 2017)."


id: 4477468852ec1440af32f379458b3ae4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9273
content:
"The core constraints identified in AR5 (Klein et al., 2014) for freshwater\u0002related adaptation were lack of governance, financial resources and \r information, while water availability was singled out as a core constraint \r to diversifying options for water-dependent sectors. SR1.5 showed \r that increasing aridity and decreased freshwater availability, including \r limited groundwater supply in fossil aquifers in conjunction with rising \r sea levels may pose hard limits to adaptation for small islands (Roy \r et al., 2018). SR1.5 also shows that water-related risks can be reduced \r substantially by limiting warming to 1.5degC (high confidence) (Hoegh\u0002Guldberg et  al., 2018), thereby also reducing the potential to reach \r hard limits to adaptation. SROCC highlighted that several barriers \r and limits to adapt to reduced water availability in mountain areas, \r such as lack of finance and technical knowledge (Hock et al., 2019b). \r [...]"


id: 743662b4d786653e0130c3d0df77d731
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17683
content:
"[...] The SRCCL further highlighted the critical importance of water-related \r climate change adaptation and potential limits to adaptation in the "


id: 476fae31cfc63ce95e2397ce70df14de
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9779
content:
"limit water availability for irrigation systems that depend on melt\u0002water (Section 4.5.1) (Qin et al., 2020). Biophysical limits may also be \r reached through impacts of hydrological extremes, such as crop loss as \r a consequence of extreme precipitation events (Huggel et al., 2019; van \r der Geest et al., 2019). Such limits are reported to a limited to moderate \r extent across all adaptation options assessed (Figure 4.30). However, \r knowledge gaps remain about physical and biological constraints to \r adaptation in the water sector. Climate impacts, such as droughts in \r East Africa or glacier melt in the cryosphere, indicate that biophysical \r limits to adaptation may exist, even under current climate conditions \r (Figure 4.31) (Warner and van der Geest, 2013; Huggel et al., 2019; van \r der Geest et al., 2019). A lack of investment in relevant infrastructure, \r such as dikes for example, as well as maladaptive effects of certain \r [...]"


id: 766501f6364e377d82489f78745276d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18055
content:
"[...] measures could increase existing risks and exacerbate impacts (van \r der Geest et al., 2019)."


id: c78aeb2f8abc803992a83b7f522085bc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Figure 4.31 |  Examples of regional studies where communities experienced negative impacts despite or beyond implemented adaptation have been \r documented. Panels indicate the climate hazard that leads to the need for adaptation, the adaptation option implemented and the recorded impacts per region (A - Arctic \r (Landauer and Juhola, 2019), B - Africa (van der Geest et al., 2019), C - Caribbean (Lashley and Warner, 2015), D - South Asia (Kusters and Wangdi, 2013; van der Geest and \r Schindler, 2016; Bhowmik et al., 2021), E - Southeast Asia (Acosta et al., 2016; Beckman and Nguyen, 2016), F - Pacific the Small Island States (Gawith et al., 2016; Handmer \r and Nalau, 2019), G - Global effect: Mountain Cryosphere (Huggel et al., 2019)). Presented examples are limited to the available peer-reviewed literature that focuses explicitly \r [...]"


id: 23ba1b0ea899191462170782e26521d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3481
content:
"[...] on impacts that have been documented despite documented evidence that adaptation in relation to water hazards had previously been implemented. Section 4.3 provides a full \r assessment of observed impacts across sectors and regions."


id: 317dc28676b70874be889cdce997fb2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5948
content:
"SSP3 (Ciscar et al., 2018). Global direct damages from fluvial floods are \r projected to rise to EUR1250 billion yr-1 under a 3degC global warming level \r and SSP5 socioeconomic scenario (Dottori et al., 2018). A model-based \r study of selected water-related sectors like fluvial and coastal flooding, \r agricultural productivity of major crops, hydroelectric power generation, \r and thermal power generation provides much conservative estimates of \r GDP loss (Takakura et al., 2019). The study shows that without adaptation, \r loss of global GDP could be 0.094% under RCP8.5 and SSP5 and 0.013% \r under RCP2.6 and SSP1 scenarios in 2090 (2080-2099), with regional \r values for Africa (0.017 to 0.286%), Asia (0.015 to 0.104%), Australasia \r (-0.012 to 0.003%), North America (-0.002 to 0.005%) and South and \r Central America (0.011 to 0.055%) (Takakura et al., 2019). So, while there \r is general agreement about negative impacts on GDP due to water-related \r [...]"


id: 5ab54b4ab03d1e3dba96db474c738955
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13211
content:
"[...] risks in the future, the magnitude of GDP loss estimates varies substantially \r and depends on various model assumptions (high confidence). Updating \r costs while improving the modelling of uncertainties is essential for \r evidence-based decision-making (Ginbo et al., 2020)."


id: f029b514cb14c25bfffdb741c800a5e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39636
content:
"Costs of water-related infrastructure in adaptation have received \r attention at the global and regional level to bridge the 'adaptation gap' \r (Hallegatte et al., 2018; UNEP, 2018; Dellink et al., 2019; GCA, 2019). For \r example, (Rozenberg and Fay, 2019) estimated that subsidising capital \r costs to extend irrigation to its full potential would cost 0.13% of the GDP \r per year of low-and middle-income countries between 2015 and 2030. \r The coastal and riverine protection cost was between 0.06% and 1% of \r these countries' GDP per year over the same period. Projected economic \r damage due to coastal inundation was USD 169-482 billion in 2100 \r under RCP8.5-SSP3 without adaptation, but USD 43-203 billion cost to \r raise dike height will reduce 40% of the total damage (Tamura et al., \r 2019). Hard infrastructure for river floods, costing $4-9 billion yr-1, can \r reduce damage by USD 22-74 billion yr-1 (Tanoue et al., 2021). Damages \r [...]"


id: 19da6a43c60080a9bcebb7c035fe7d97
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"[...] are estimated to be up to six-time larger than the cost of implementing \r efficient adaptation measures (H2020., 2014). (GCA, 2019) reported that \r investing USD 1.8 trillion globally, for example, in early warning systems, \r climate-resilient infrastructure; dryland crop production; mangrove \r protection; and improving the resilience of water resources between \r 2020 and 2030 could generate USD 7.1 trillion in benefits."


id: c70203bf90738dac560dd5fed7612748
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32322
content:
"Comparatively, less attention has been paid to low-regret options, \r especially at the national and local levels. Conservation agriculture and \r integrated production systems, early-warning systems, restoration of \r wetlands, and zoning are postulated to have lower investment and lock\u0002in costs than engineering-based options (Mechler, 2016; Cronin et al., \r 2018; Johnson et al., 2020). However, they require regular maintenance \r and high technical and human capacity, which are likely to vary by \r scale, location, and context (Chandra et al., 2018; Khanal et al., 2019; \r Mutenje et al., 2019; Rahman and Hickey, 2019). Global studies suggest \r improvements in returns on adaptation investments by delivering \r better services and reducing water wastage through appropriate water \r pricing and regulations (Damania et al., 2017; Bhave et al., 2018). For \r example, under scenarios SSP1 and SSP3, water pricing and regulation \r [...]"


id: 44d2bb5bccafbb6f8d2da211686e806c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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vector_id: 9332
content:
"[...] are projected to reverse losses in expected 2050 global GDP of 0.49% \r to gains of 0.09%. GDP losses are projected to drastically reduce in the \r Middle East, eliminated in the Sahel and Central Africa, and reversed \r into gains in Central Asia and East Africa, with benefits concentrated \r in worst-affected regions (World Bank, 2016). More local and national \r studies are needed to identify low regret options and their benefits and "


id: a0b59587358cdb63e173012e69f6c1d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25480
content:
"The WEF nexus is an approach that recognises that water, energy and food are linked in a complex web of relationships in the hydrological, \r biological, social, and technological realms (D'Odorico et  al., 2018; Liu et  al., 2018b; Marker et  al., 2018). For instance, agricultural \r production requires significant energy inputs due to intensive groundwater pumping (Siddiqi and Wescoat, 2013; Gurdak, 2018; Putra \r et al., 2020). Similarly, hydropower production often has trade-offs with irrigation, affecting food production, carbon emission and forest \r protection (Meng et al., 2020). New technologies, such as desalination plants for urban water supply against future climate change and \r drought, are also very energy-intensive (Caldera et al., 2018) (Box 4.5). Quantifying the complex interdependencies among food, energy \r and water is critical to achieving the SDGs and reducing trade-offs (Liu et al., 2018a; Liu et al., 2018b; UN, 2019). A key benefit of the \r [...]"


id: a62fcfc7b75d06cfe44d61dd8a744654
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26460
content:
"[...] nexus approach is to leverage the interconnection of WEF and achieve the most efficiency in the overall systems. Hence, this approach \r allows for widening the set of salient stakeholders and, therefore, solution possibilities that may otherwise not be possible in single\u0002domain efforts and helps connect these stakeholders to achieve synergistic goals (Ernst and Preston, 2017; Mercure et al., 2019)."


id: c4536bb1821c57daf06832c3277ec417
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31833
content:
"The WEF nexus approach thus opens up possibilities for strategic interventions across sectors through a better understanding of \r trade-offs (Albrecht et al., 2018). Policies and strategies aiming to cope with climate change may amplify rather than reduce negative \r externalities and trade-offs within the nexus: low carbon transition, the shift to non-conventional water resources, and agricultural \r intensification, all implemented to mitigate and adapt to climate change, are not always nexus-smart. Hence, a nexus approach that \r integrates management and governance across these three sectors can enhance WEF security by minimising trade-offs and maximising \r synergies between sectors. At the same time, renewable energy offers the opportunity to decouple water and food production from fossil \r fuel supply, leading to several advantages from both a socioeconomic and environmental point of view (Cipollina et al., 2015; Pistocchi \r [...]"


id: dc6c340817e38672707c9a3e52da5bfe
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36046
content:
"[...] et al., 2020). WEF nexus approaches can achieve overall system efficiency when maximising the use and recovery of water, energy, \r nutrients and materials (Pistocchi et al., 2020; Tian et al., 2021). These types of holistic system thinking of WEF show promising strategies \r to catalyse transformative changes. Suppose that the specific types and extent of WEF linkages in a region are well understood. In that \r case, it becomes possible to intervene through one element to cause an effect on another connected component that may have proven \r difficult for direct intervention (Mukherji, 2020)."


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"Bio-energy crop with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) involves \r CO2 sequestration as biofuel or forest bioenergy (Creutzig et al., 2015). \r BECCS has profound implications for water resources (Ai et al., 2020), \r depending on factors including the scale of deployment, land use, and \r other local conditions. Evaporative losses from biomass irrigation and \r thermal bioelectricity generation are projected to peak at 183 km3\r yr-1 in 2050 under a low overshoot scenario (Fuhrman et al., 2020). \r (Senthil Kumar et  al., 2020) projected that while BECCS strategies \r like irrigating biomass plantations can limit global warming by the \r end of the 21st century to 1.5degC, this will double the global area and \r population living under severe water stress compared to the current \r baseline. Both BECCS (Muratori et al., 2016) and DAC can significantly \r impact food prices via demand for land and water (Fuhrman et  al., \r 2020). The direction and magnitude of price movement will depend on \r [...]"


id: e07516e59a30e29dc0e1a9f146c48c96
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content:
"[...] future carbon prices, while vulnerable people in the Global South will \r be most severely affected (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: fb62c945d976bb133c7e227180eb7e31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Afforestation and reforestation are considered one of the most \r cost-effective ways of storing carbon. An additional 0.9  billion ha \r of canopy cover in suitable locations could store 205 Gt of carbon \r (Bastin et  al., 2019), but this estimate is deemed unrealistic. \r Aggressive afforestation and reforestation efforts can result in \r trade-offs between biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and water \r use (Smith et  al., 2008). In northern China, ecological restoration \r by regreening drylands resulted in several environmental and \r social benefits (Mirzabaev et  al., 2019) but also led to increased \r freshwater use in some pockets (Zhao et  al., 2020). Afforestation \r and reforestation with appropriate broad-leaf species in temperate \r Europe (Schwaab et al., 2020) can offer water quality and quantity\u0002related benefits, mitigate extreme heat, and buffer against drought \r (Staal et al., 2018). A global assessment on forest and water showed \r [...]"


id: a95fed4eb6bd9e44e9b0ece72012ecf2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27024
content:
"[...] that forests influence the overall water cycle, including downstream \r water availability via rainfall-runoff dynamics and downwind water \r availability via recycled rainfall effects (Creed and van Noordwijk, \r 2018). The study concluded that afforestation and reforestation \r should be concentrated (Ellison et  al., 2017) in water-abundant \r locations (to offset downstream impacts) and where transpiration \r can potentially be captured downwind as precipitation (Creed et al., \r 2019) (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2). Overall, extensive \r BECCS and afforestation/reforestation deployment can alter the \r water cycle at regional scales (high confidence) (Cross-Chapter \r Box 5.1 in Chapter 5, WGI, (Canadell et al., 2021))."


id: f8c1ad630d1e71656bc9368cd92763d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Sustainable development is a global policy priority and commitment, \r as is keeping temperatures well below 2degC as per the Paris Agreement. \r Water is central to almost all SDGs (Box 4.1). Water is explicitly referred \r to in SDG6 (clean water and sanitation) and SDG11 (sustainable \r communities and cities) (UN, 2015) (Section 4.1). SDG1 (no poverty) \r is statistically linked to SDG6 (clean water and sanitation) (Pradhan, \r 2019), since reducing poverty can help increase adaptive capacity in \r line with the Paris Agreement adaptation goals (see Chapter 1 and \r Chapter 18). SDG2 (zero hunger) cannot be achieved without access to \r adequate water for agriculture. Meeting SDG3 (health and well-being) \r will rely on access to basic infrastructure like water and sanitation \r (Delany-Crowe et al., 2019; see Cross-Chapter Box HEALTH in Chapter \r 7, Sections  4.3.3, 4.3.5), while SDG7 (affordable and clean energy) \r will need water for hydropower production under a changing climate \r [...]"


id: 4b89c9f89e48e4b3377fde0857686f13
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10548
content:
"[...] (Berga, 2016; Byers et  al., 2016) (Section  4.5.2). Meeting SDG11 \r (sustainable cities and communities) will require reducing the impacts \r from water-related disasters."


id: 70916d3ba8042c0d868b7b2c04242ae7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17063
content:
"Technologies that reduce carbon emissions by promoting the efficient \r use of water can support successful adaptation (Biagini et al., 2014), \r provided they do not have adverse distributional outcomes (medium \r evidence, high agreement). Water management in agriculture has long \r seen the use of technology. For example, the use of technology to improve \r access to water, for example, through the diffusion of groundwater \r pumps in the 1970s in South Asia, had several livelihood benefits, but \r made agriculture more carbon-intensive (Zaveri et  al., 2016). More \r recently, technology has been used to improve water use efficiency \r in agriculture through the adoption of drip and sprinkler irrigation \r (Zhuo and Hoekstra, 2017; Grafton et  al., 2018), and the use of the \r Internet of Things (IoT) (Keswani et al., 2019). In addition, innovations \r to reuse water through various wastewater recovery technologies \r (Diaz-Elsayed et  al., 2019; Capodaglio, 2020), create potable water \r [...]"


id: c40354d8d178b3fa86c00efc69294aa6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31768
content:
"[...] through desalinisation (Caldera et al., 2018) and reuse of wastewater in \r agriculture (Salgot and Folch, 2018) are also on the rise (Box 4.5). Solar \r technologies are increasingly used for irrigation, wastewater recovery, \r desalinisation and water harvesting (Algarni et al., 2018; Pouyfaucon \r and Garcia-Rodriguez, 2018; Tu et al., 2018; Zhao F. et al., 2020). Machine \r learning and artificial intelligence technologies (Doorn, 2021) have \r started being used in many water-use sectors, such as urban settings \r (Nie et al., 2020), wastewater management (Abdallah et al., 2020; Ben \r Ammar et al., 2020) and agricultural water management, but mostly \r in high-income countries mostly on an experimental basis (Tsang and \r Jim, 2016; Gonzalez Perea et al., 2018). Technology is being increasingly \r used in hydrological sciences for measurements and monitoring \r (SM4.1), as well as for creating comprehensive hydrometeorological \r [...]"


id: 89f086e415c740b60da4a1220af9c27c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21439
content:
"[...] warning systems (Funk et al., 2015). Lack of technology and knowledge \r transfer, especially related to remote sensing, is an adaptation barrier in \r states with less resources (Funk et al., 2015)."


id: fcc313afcf973f0548f660a8775c5604
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41834
content:
"Water is also fundamental to all systems transitions, namely, transitions \r in energy, industrial, land and ecosystem and urban systems. Within \r energy and industrial system transitions, water stress for electricity \r generation has already caused impacts (Section 4.3.2). Therefore, water \r efficiency measures are increasingly applied in both energy and industrial \r systems with benefits for mitigation and adaptation (Section  4.6.3). \r Water is inextricably entwined with land and ecosystems transitions, \r with forested areas and ecosystems being integral components of the \r water cycle, regulating streamflow, fostering groundwater recharge \r and contributing to atmospheric water recycling (Takata and Hanasaki, \r 2020) (Section 4.2). However, mitigation action of large afforestation, \r can have negative water impacts (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 5 \r of WGI report, 4.7.6), making it imperative to consider water footprint \r [...]"


id: f0452c565b2ff004eceadb378ac773f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"[...] of land- and forest-based mitigation (Muricho et  al., 2019; Seddon \r et al., 2020) (Section 4.7.6). Sustainable forest management and NBS \r are promising alternatives for good water management (Muricho \r et al., 2019; Seddon et al., 2020). Water will also play a crucial role in \r sustainable urban transitions. Cities are already facing water-related \r impacts (Section  4.3.4), which are projected to intensify with every \r degree of global warming (Florke et  al., 2018; Nazemi and Madani, \r 2018) (Section 4.5.4). Mitigation and adaptation measures in urban "


id: 28271b3996e1f3fe11a28dc93411af85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Gender, class, race, age, physical ability and educational level determine \r access to water and financial and societal resources, potentially \r adverting climate-induced water hazards, reducing vulnerability and \r facilitating adaptation. However, insufficient attention has been given \r to the role of improving equity in access to water (Abedin et al., 2019; \r Eakin et al., 2020). Not all water adaptation strategies are accessible \r to the poorest, who may turn to maladaptive strategies if their access \r to water is negatively affected (Eakin et  al., 2016). Consequently, \r there have been calls for mainstreaming equity considerations into \r adaptation (Blackburn and Pelling, 2018) (medium evidence, high \r agreement). It has been shown that people living in poverty, racial \r minorities and those ageing are more vulnerable to climate-induced \r water hazards and that their adaptive capacity is limited (Szewranski \r et al., 2018; Winsemius et al., 2018; Nyantakyi-Frimpong, 2020; Erwin \r [...]"


id: 4a246dd60c73d04ca69779125e673735
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vector_id: 10286
content:
"[...] et al., 2021). Among these categories, gender is the one that has been \r most analysed in the context of water and climate change."


id: d1cc5092d93322500d241cdab85ce4c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34262
content:
"Mitigation garners the significant share of committed climate finance. \r For example, of the total USD 15.4 billion climate finance commitments \r through 'green bonds', 79% accrued to mitigation and the rest to \r adaptation (World Bank, 2017). However, within adaptation finance, \r water garners a significant share of adaptation funds, with 13% of \r the Adaptation Fund's investments were for water management, \r 12% for coastal management and 10% for disaster risk reduction \r (Adaptation Fund, 2018). Similarly, within the urban adaptation \r landscape, which got ~3-5% of total adaptation finance flows of USD \r 30.8 billion tracked in 2017-2018 (Richmond et al., 2021), water and \r wastewater management projects received the largest share of urban \r adaptation finance (USD 761  million annually) followed by disaster \r risk management (USD 323 million) (Richmond et al., 2021). However, \r more frequent tracking of public financing is required, with a greater \r [...]"


id: c1e1daf8dbd3e3685696c0a96d7ca39e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31411
content:
"[...] focus on transparency and accountability (Ciplet et  al., 2018; Khan \r et al., 2020) and justice and social equity (Emrich et al., 2020) (also see \r Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17)."


id: 28376ff9fe638ab8234b7b376336bc3e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4274
content:
"Women's water rights are hampered by societal patriarchal norms \r that prevent women from accessing water and participating in water \r management. Gender power relations effectively limit women's \r decision-making power, mobility and access to resources, including \r water, which makes them more vulnerable to climate-related hazards \r (Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; Djoudi et al., 2016; Sultana, 2018; Yadav \r and Lal, 2018). In most societies in developing countries, women and \r girls are in charge of fetching water. The necessity of water collection \r takes away time from income-generating activities and education (high \r confidence) (Fontana and Elson, 2014; Kookana et al., 2016; Yadav and \r Lal, 2018). In addition, the distances women and girls would have \r to walk as a result of growing water scarcity due to climate change \r may increase (limited evidence, high confidence) (Becerra et al., 2016) \r (Sections 4.3.3, 4.5.3). Numerous studies substantiate a male bias in \r [...]"


id: f6ee7deefff1cbfe10e4cf0e7265eb43
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vector_id: 40812
content:
"[...] information access, employment opportunities, resource availability \r and decision-making in water-related adaptation measures (Huynh \r and Resurreccion, 2014; Sinharoy and Caruso, 2019)."


id: 67db768b9787a272ed18530e3a2fea1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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vector_id: 15548
content:
"et  al., 2016; Gonda, 2016; Yadav and Lal, 2018), they are also \r proactive adaptation actors (Singh and Singh, 2015) (Cross-Chapter \r Box GENDER in Chapter 18). Notably, women are not a homogenous \r group, and local gender roles are not immutable or generalisable (Carr \r and Thompson, 2014; Djoudi et al., 2016; Gonda, 2016; Sultana, 2018). \r Coping responses and adaptation mechanisms to climate change are \r profoundly gendered. Women and men approach the diversification of \r agricultural and pastoral livelihoods differently in response to climate \r change (Caretta and Borjeson, 2015; Kankwamba et al., 2018; Singh \r et  al., 2018; Basupi et  al., 2019). For example, reliance on women's \r self-help groups and associations has proven successful in ensuring \r women's participation in decision-making in adaptation interventions \r as a response to climate change-induced shifting precipitation patterns \r and increasing droughts (Chu, 2017; Mersha and van Laerhoven, 2018; \r [...]"


id: 179519757ff574ed09903032cb61d52b
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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vector_id: 1356
content:
"[...] Phuong et al., 2018; Walch, 2019). Studies feature water harvesting, \r crop diversification, cash transfer programmes and food subsidies as \r adaptation measures that enhance gender equality. Adaptation to \r climate change in these instances promoted gender equality because \r it allowed women to reap the benefits of these new measures in terms \r of economic and health well-being (Tesfamariam and Hurlbert, 2017; \r Lindoso et al., 2018; Walch, 2019)."


id: 2b5ebfbdbea1d8c30658bc1ff276e458
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4877
content:
"SDG6 on water and sanitation includes a specific indicator (6.5.2) \r to assess cooperation over transboundary waters. While the \r methodology for measuring this indicator is debated, it is clear that \r its composition will influence international and national water policy \r and law (McCracken and Meyer, 2018) and possibly help build an \r environment of trust among riparian states. Moreover, although the \r 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (A/RES/70/1) makes it \r clear that without the participation of local communities (e.g., SDG6, \r Target 6b) and women (e.g., SDG5, Target 5.5), the SDGs will not be \r met; the involvement of these actors in formal water governance \r processes and water management is still limited (Fauconnier et al., \r 2018). This is due partly to the absence, in many regions of the \r world, of adequate legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks \r for effective stakeholder participation, partly to the influence of local \r [...]"


id: c299e4556a488f2dff2373a454b36767
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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vector_id: 31524
content:
"[...] social and cultural contexts, which can discourage inclusive water \r governance (Andajani-Sutjahjo et al., 2015; Dang, 2017). Yet, inclusion \r and effective participation in bottom-up decision-making processes \r of those disproportionately affected by climate change--including \r women and Indigenous Peoples--is particularly important to ensure \r the legitimacy and inclusiveness of the decision-making process \r and the design of socially just adaptation actions (Shi et al., 2016). \r Moreover, incentives for bottom-up and participative decision-making \r in the water sector can facilitate effective stakeholder engagement \r (OECD, 2015), which helps build public confidence and trust in water \r governance."


id: 964588d245deaa69ebb6a191ffbbf544
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23632
content:
"The 2015 Paris Agreement made a significant impact on the status \r quo, with almost all the countries agreeing to limit global warming \r to 2degC or less. The preparation of NDCs under the Paris Agreement \r contributed positively to national climate policies and helped focus on \r the centrality of water in adaptation planning (Roser et al., 2020). In \r total, 92% of countries that mention adaptation in NDCs also include \r water (GWP, 2018). Low-income countries make specific reference to \r rain-fed or irrigated agriculture and livestock. In contrast, middle- and \r high-income countries include developing management, governance \r mechanisms and increased disaster risk reduction in their NDC pledges \r (GWP, 2018). Floods were the critical climate hazards identified in \r the adaptation components of NDCs, followed by droughts (85 out \r of 137 countries for floods and 80 out of 137 for drought). Also, the \r water sector was identified as the top priority sector for adaptation \r [...]"


id: 2458b1a48aa47060835db2c5746373bb
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content:
"[...] actions in the NDCs for 118 out of 137 countries, followed closely by \r the agricultural sector with 100 out 137 (GWP, 2018) based on data \r from UNFCCC (2017). Many developing countries have included \r quantitative targets for adaptation in the water sector (Pauw et al., \r 2018). Similarly, water-related impacts and adaptation often feature \r prominently in NAPs (DEFRA, 2018)."


id: a7924f130c270131b87c09e58aa53f91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26694
content:
"Questions remain about the extent to which polycentrism can result \r in either greater climate justice or exacerbate existing inequalities \r due, for example, to existing power inequalities which may affect the \r performance and effectiveness of a polycentric system (Pahl-Wostl \r and Knieper, 2014; Morrison et al., 2017; Hamilton and Lubell, 2018; \r Okereke, 2018). For instance, historical inequities and injustices due \r to settler colonialism and top-down water policies, governance and \r laws (Collins et al., 2017; Arsenault et al., 2018; Johnson et al., 2018; \r Robison et  al., 2018) have resulted in long-term water insecurity in \r many indigenous communities in North America (Simms et al., 2016; \r Medeiros et  al., 2017; Conroy-Ben and Richard, 2018; Diver, 2018; \r Emanuel, 2018) (high confidence) (Section 4.6.9). Additionally, studies \r highlight that power dynamics can undermine the success of those \r initiatives. For example, in the Sao Paulo water crisis, polycentric \r [...]"


id: 97e6dcbbcd6575013278561b7227b45a
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23939
content:
"[...] governance did not fully realise its potential when it was guided by \r authoritarian governance favouring political interests over social, \r territorial and environmental justice (Frey et  al., 2021). Likewise, in \r the Thau basin (France), the most important and influential actors \r shaped policy measures in response to climate change, thus limiting \r the potential for radical changes in water use (Aubin et al., 2019)."


id: df197aa79c4dd6a9e683e93893dfce2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36503
content:
"Climate change will lead to populations becoming more vulnerable to floods and droughts due to an increase in the frequency, magnitude \r and total area affected by water-related disasters. Floods and droughts will also affect more people in the course of this century as a result \r of population growth and increased urbanisation, especially if warming cannot be limited to 1.5degC. The impact of floods and droughts are \r expected to increase across all economic sectors, resulting in negative outcomes for the global production of goods and services, industry \r output, employment, trade and household consumption. Floods will pose additional risks to people's lives and health through inundation, \r facilitating the further spread of waterborne diseases. At the same time, droughts can have adverse health impacts due to the limited \r availability of food and water for drinking and hygienic purposes. All losses, both in terms of lives and in economic terms, will be more limited \r [...]"


id: 45258ac65512a3655598dbeb3633f7a7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9389
content:
"The processes that lead to droughts include lack of or less frequent precipitation, increased evapotranspiration \r and decreased soil moisture, snow cover, runoff and streamflow. For example, warming temperatures may result \r in higher evapotranspiration, in turn leading to drier soils. In addition, reduced soil moisture diminishes the \r amount of water filtering into rivers in both the short and long term while also increasing the aridity that can \r foster the conditions for fire. Moreover, decreased snow cover represents less runoff supply to downstream areas \r during warmer seasons. Depending on this process and the propagation of a meteorological drought onto further \r systems, a drought can be defined as hydrological, agricultural or ecological. Agricultural drought threatens food \r production through crop damage and yield decreases, and consequent economic impacts, and therefore, can be \r [...]"


id: fbb675cfa97063d5636f19b01678877a
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vector_id: 41653
content:
"[...] the most impactful to humans. Geographically, the likelihood of agricultural drought is projected to increase across \r most of southern Africa, Australia, the majority of Europe, the southern and western USA, Central America and the \r Caribbean, northwest China, parts of South America, and the Russian Federation; but due to increased precipitation, \r it is projected to decline in southeastern South America, central Africa, central Canada, western India and the south \r of the Arabian Peninsula."


id: 541a8f728c84f59da0dcb821c08f3bf4
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12073
content:
"Flood hazard natural processes usually result from increases in heavy precipitation events, but they can also be \r caused by saturated soils, increased runoff and land use changes. A warming climate usually causes greater energy \r for the intense upward motion for storm formation and increases evapotranspiration, which leads to heavier \r precipitation. Many places around the world will experience more-than-average rainfall, which may increase soil \r moisture. Wetter soils saturate faster during precipitation events, resulting in increased runoff that can muddy the \r waters and lead to floods. Anthropogenic land use changes, such as urbanisation, deforestation, grasslands and \r agricultural extension, can also reduce the amount of water infiltrating the soil and leading to frequent flooding. \r Floods are expected to increase in Asia, the USA and Europe, particularly in areas dependent on glacier water where \r [...]"


id: 13a6e5250163cc2fbf42ccf15cd1bb22
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 675
content:
"[...] melting will lead to earlier spring floods. Additionally, fluvial floods are projected to be more frequent in some \r regions in central Africa and northern high latitudes and less frequent in the southern areas of North America, \r southern South America, the Mediterranean, parts of Australia and southern parts of Europe."


id: 526fe5636a012f90967fd65058958de7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11784
content:
"Globally, socioeconomic development will lead to heightened societal hazards. Due to population growth and \r increased urbanisation, floods and droughts will affect more people in the course of this century, especially if \r warming cannot be limited to 1.5degC. All losses, both in lives and in economic terms, will be more limited in a 1.5degC \r than in a 3degC warmer world. The impacts of floods and droughts are expected to increase across all economic sectors, \r from agriculture to energy production, resulting in negative outcomes for our global production of goods and \r services, industry output, employment, trade and household consumption. Landslides, sinkholes and avalanches \r arising from heavy rainfall events will increasingly threaten infrastructure and agricultural production. In cities, \r increased flood frequency could disrupt waste management systems, resulting in the clogging of waterways. In \r [...]"


id: 794c79c4118b108a7d36325cb22edea9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18535
content:
"[...] addition, unprecedented flood magnitudes could overwhelm hydraulic infrastructure, affecting the energy, industry \r and transportation sectors. An expansion in inundation area, coupled with urban sprawl, would increase flood \r damage. Floods will pose additional risks to people's lives and health through inundation, thus facilitating the spread \r of waterborne diseases. At the same time, drought can have adverse health impacts due to the limited availability of \r food and water for drinking and hygienic purposes. Although there are no agreed-upon projections for migration \r and displacement due to water-related disasters, it is known that drought and desertification cause harvest failures, \r which may lead subsistence farmers to relocate to urban areas. Whether temporary or permanent, displacement is \r often mired with diminished safety, loss of social ties, and a weakened sense of place and cultural identity."


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vector_id: 37451
content:
"Climate-induced changes in the global hydrological cycle are already impacting agriculture through floods, droughts and increased rainfall \r variability, which have affected yields of major crops such as maize, soybeans, rice and wheat. These changes are projected to continue in a \r warmer world, which will cause yields of rain-fed crops to decline and reduce the amount of water available for irrigation in water-stressed \r regions. Farmers already use adaptation and coping strategies to manage agricultural water use. Some of the most important adaptation \r responses are the application of irrigation, on-farm water and soil conservation; changing cropping patterns; adopting improved cultivars; and \r improved agronomic practices. In many parts of the world, farmers increasingly use Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge to inform their \r decisions of what to grow, when to grow and how much to irrigate. To offset the risks of market-related volatility coupled with climate change, \r [...]"


id: f94739cd46279cec36ba8202711acffa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41219
content:
"[...] farmers also adopt economic and financial instruments such as index-based crop insurance. Training and capacity-building programmes and \r social safety nets are other forms of adaptation that farmers are using to respond to these changes."


id: a36cb3e7d7314161a44ec36d84424c51
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25960
content:
"Climate-induced changes in the global hydrological cycle are already impacting agriculture through floods, \r droughts and increased rainfall variability. For example, loss in yields has been reported for major crops such as \r maize (by 4.1%), soybeans (by 4.5%), rice (by 1.8%) and wheat (by 1.8%) due to changes in precipitation between \r 1981 and 2010. In addition, drought has affected both the area under cultivation and the yields of major crops. \r According to one estimate, globally, there has been a loss of 9-10% of total cereal production due to droughts \r and other weather extremes. Similarly, floods are one of the significant reasons for crop losses worldwide. Climate \r change-induced losses in livestock and fisheries have also been documented. In some parts of the world, especially \r in cold temperate zones, agro-climatic zones have become more conducive to yield growth in crops like maize and \r [...]"


id: 76c218e697d4c2138a2ae172862b422a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18109
content:
"[...] soybean due to increases in summer precipitation. Yet, negative impacts far outweigh positive impacts."


id: 3928a1b541da6c35669d01b52fa50a60
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7264
content:
"For decades, communities worldwide have already been adapting to climate change-induced hydrological changes \r to maintain their livelihood and safety. Adaptation is a multi-faceted process that is implemented differently \r depending on the sector affected by changes in the hydrological cycle and the region where these changes happen. \r For instance, farmers in the semiarid areas might adapt to changing rain patterns through irrigation (see also \r FAQ4.4). At the same time, urban dwellers can adopt measures such as rainwater harvesting and other nature-based \r solutions. Several principles have been documented as crucial for achieving sustainable adaptation as they support \r communities in becoming more resilient to climate change. However, these principles can be implemented singularly \r or in tandem, and it is essential to acknowledge that long-term adaptation success is context-specific. Therefore, it \r [...]"


id: 39f0246db99d10ce170e8da6d715c10c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7402
content:
"For communities to sustainably adapt to climate impacts on water security, participation, cooperation and bottom-up \r engagement are critical in all stages of the decision-making processes, from planning to full implementation. Many \r of the countries and social groups most threatened by climate change have contributed least to global warming \r and do not have access to adequate resources to adapt. Effective participation of these actors in water-related \r climate change adaptation planning can contribute to more equitable adaptation actions. The involvement of the \r most vulnerable in the design of adaptation responses makes it more probable that these solutions will suit their \r needs and have therefore a higher chance of being effective. Accessible, inclusive and well-coordinated efforts to \r enhance water security will improve the legitimacy of water governance and work synergistically with reducing \r [...]"


id: 8d047f06c2f99e12032a8320b7b9029e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21996
content:
"[...] inequalities (UN SDG, SDG 10) and encouraging more sustainable communities (SDG 11). Communities can also be \r involved in sector-specific adaptation responses. These are often water-related and help ensure that climate action \r (SDG 13) is well aligned with clean water and sanitation (SGD 6)."


id: 5e4ffaf4d14c546d1375d2427f1fd2bf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13884
content:
"Contributing Authors: Almut Arneth (Germany), Guleid Artan (Kenya/Somalia), Ayansina \r Ayanlade (Nigeria), Ermias Aynkulu (Kenya/Ethiopia), Marta Baraibar (Kenya/Spain), Manuel \r Barange (South Africa/Italy), Mucahid Mustafa Bayrak (the Netherlands), Goran Berndes (Sweden), \r Jorn Birkmann (Germany), Luisa F. Cabeza (Spain), Donovan Campbell (Jamaica), Edwin Castellanos \r (Guatemala), William Cheung (Canada), Priscilla Claeys (Belgium), Jennifer Clapp (Canada), Jofre \r Carnicer Cols (Spain), Annette Cowie (Australia), Veronica Crespo-Perez (Ecuador), Vassilis Daioglou \r (Greece), Shouro Dasgupta (Italy/Bangladesh), Deborah Delgado Pugley (Peru), Alice Favero (USA), \r Jennifer Franco (the Netherlands), Eranga Galappaththi (Canada/Sri Lanka), Amelie Gaudin (USA/\r France), Adugna Gemeda (Ethiopia), Patrick Gonzalez (USA), Jack Heinemann (New Zealand/USA), \r Kirstin Holsman (USA), Joanna House (UK), Ann Kingiri (Kenya), Adrian Leip (Belgium/Germany), \r [...]"


id: 478d140c9a73a311756e21dc075e3496
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9803
content:
"[...] Xiaoyue Li (China), Ana Maria Loboguerrero (Colombia), Angelo Maggiore (Italy), Dianne Mayberry \r (Australia), Kathleen Miller (USA), Christian Mollmann (Germany), Michael Morecroft (UK), Kenneth \r Kemucie Mwangi (Kenya), Gert-Jan Nabuurs (the Netherlands), Christine Negra (USA), Kari Marie \r Norgaard (USA), Hanson Nyantakyi-Frimpong (USA/Ghana), Elizabeth A. Nyboer (Canada), Elena \r Ojea (Spain), Camille Parmesan (France/UK/USA), Gretta Pecl (Australia), Patricia Pinho (Brazil), John \r Pinnegar (UK), Julio C. Postigo (USA/Peru), Bronwen Powell (Canada), Amy Quandt (USA), Marie\u0002Fanny Racault (UK/France), Victoria Reyes-Garcia (Spain), Marta Rivera-Ferre (Spain), Abubakr \r A.M. Salih (Kenya/Sudan), Arnim Scheidel (Spain/Austria), Anna Schlingmann (Spain/Germany), \r Matthew Schnurr (Canada), Rupert Seidl (Germany), Gudeta W. Sileshi (Zambia/Ethiopia), Pramod \r K. Singh (India), Raphael Slade (UK), Pete Smith (UK), Doris Soto (Chile), Elizabeth Sprout (UK/USA), \r [...]"


id: 94aeeb1e1b7a1ec9cf58313b2e7d4668
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23363
content:
"[...] M. Cristina Tirado-von der Pahlen (USA/Spain), Jennifer Vanos (Canada), Hitomi Wakatsuki (Japan), \r Lewis Ziska (USA), Robert Zougmore (Burkina Faso)"


id: 8b7ae39dda436b9fcf75d4d03ce1e0a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21704
content:
"Climate change impacts are stressing agriculture, forestry, \r fisheries and aquaculture, increasingly hindering efforts to \r meet human needs (high confidence1\r ). Human-induced warming \r has slowed growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years \r in mid and low latitudes (medium confidence). Crop yields are \r compromised by surface ozone (high confidence). Methane emissions \r have negatively impacted crop yields by increasing temperatures \r and surface ozone concentrations (medium confidence). Warming is \r negatively affecting crop and grassland quality and harvest stability \r (high confidence). Warmer and drier conditions have increased tree \r mortality and forest disturbances in many temperate and boreal \r biomes (high confidence), negatively impacting provisioning services \r (medium confidence). Ocean warming has decreased sustainable yields \r of some wild fish populations (high confidence). Ocean acidification \r [...]"


id: f016da3e03ee7f7c195d16dda87b83a8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39621
content:
"[...] and warming have already affected farmed aquatic species (high\r confidence). {5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.6.1, 5.7.1, 5.8.1, 5.9.1}"


id: 432a287e973feb6207aa4e23cf9920f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9024
content:
"Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all \r agricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for \r food security and livelihoods (high confidence). The frequency \r of sudden food production losses has increased since at least mid\u000220th century on land and sea (medium evidence, high agreement). \r Droughts, floods and marine heatwaves contribute to reduced food \r availability and increased food prices, threatening food security, \r nutrition and livelihoods of millions (high confidence). Droughts \r induced by the 2015-2016 El Nino, partially attributable to human \r influences (medium confidence), caused acute food insecurity in \r various regions, including eastern and southern Africa and the dry \r corridor of Central America (high confidence). In the northeast Pacific, \r a recent 5-year warm period impacted the migration, distribution \r and abundance of key fish resources (high confidence). Increasing \r [...]"


id: ec23c6e62bedb6a211e985825b859c36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38915
content:
"[...] variability in grazing systems has negatively affected animal fertility, \r mortality and herd recovery rates, reducing livestock keepers' resilience "


id: 30c2a80096fc5bffee2b2aa49963cf4e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5835
content:
"Climate change will significantly alter aquatic food provisioning \r services and water security with regional variances (high \r confidence). Climate change will reduce marine fisheries and \r aquaculture productivity, altering the species that will be fished or \r cultured, and reducing aquaculture habitat in tropical and subtropical \r areas (high confidence). Global ocean animal biomass will decrease by \r 5-17% under RCP2.6 and 8.5, respectively, from 1970 to 2100 with \r an average decline of 5% for every 1degC of warming, affecting food \r provisioning, revenue value and distribution (medium confidence). \r Global marine aquaculture will decline under warming and \r acidification from 2020 to 2100, with potential short-term gains for \r temperate finfish and overall negative impacts on bivalve aquaculture \r from habitat reduction (50-100% for some countries in the Northern \r Hemisphere) (medium confidence). Changes in precipitation, sea level, \r [...]"


id: 961e27e1dad21a9df6dbeeceb48356a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23602
content:
"[...] temperature and extreme climate events will affect food provisioning \r from inland and coastal aquatic systems (high confidence). Sea \r level rise and altered precipitation will increase coastal inundation \r and water conflicts between water-dependent sectors, such as rice \r production, direct human use and hydropower (medium confidence). \r {5.8.3, 5.9.3, 5.13, Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}"


id: 3a9934f84f9ab39f575b93bda754afa8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7514
content:
"The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing \r Climate (SROCC) identified climate change impacts of warming, \r deoxygenation and acidification of the ocean and reductions in snow, \r sea ice and glaciers as having major negative impacts on fisheries and \r crops watered from mountain runoff and agriculture. These impacts \r affect food provisioning of food and directly threaten livelihoods and \r food security of vulnerable coastal communities and glacier-fed river \r basins. Climate change impacts on fisheries will be particularly high in \r tropical regions, where reductions in catch are expected to be among \r the largest globally, leading to negative economic and social effects \r for fishing communities and with implications for the supply of fish \r and shellfish (high confidence). While specific impacts will depend on \r the level of global warming and mitigative action to improve fisheries \r and aquaculture management, some current management practices \r [...]"


id: adcdee54e27f5c205070ae75f90ddb5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27820
content:
"This chapter is taking a food systems approach similar to the food \r security chapter in SRCCL (Mbow et al., 2019), with close attention to \r food system linkages, interactions and impacts on ecosystem services \r and biodiversity (Steffen et al., 2015; Raworth, 2017; Gerten et al., 2020). \r Food security is defined as \"a situation that exists when all people, at \r all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe \r and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences \r for an active and healthy life\" (FAO, 2020). Food insecurity is often \r experienced as chronic hunger reported in the annual UN Food Security \r and Nutrition in the World (FAO, 2020), when a person is unable to \r consume enough food over an extended period. The chapter gives special \r attention to climate change impacts on acute food insecurity, which can \r occur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, \r [...]"


id: 80ac9386b3e9cf5af9ea43726a171a8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19766
content:
"[...] regardless of the causes, context or duration, as a result of shocks risking \r determinants of food security and nutrition, and used to assess the need \r for humanitarian action (IPC Global Partners, 2019)."


id: 44c9ff07b7f646fec2b243a585c977e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9329
content:
"Climate change has caused regionally different, but mostly negative, \r impacts on crop yields and quality and marketability of products (high \r confidence) (see Section 5.4.1 for observed impacts). There is medium \r evidence and high agreement that the effects of human-induced \r climate warming since the pre-industrial era has had significantly \r negative effects on global crop production, acting as a drag on the \r growth of agricultural production (Iizumi et  al., 2018; Moore, 2020; \r Ortiz-Bobea et al., 2021). One global study using an empirical model \r estimated the negative effect of anthropogenic warming trends from \r 1961 to 2017 to be on average 5.3% for three staple crops (5.9% \r for maize, 4.9% for wheat and 4.2% for rice) (Moore, 2020). Another \r study using a process-based crop model found a yield loss of 4.1% \r (0.5-8.4%) for maize and 4.5% (0.5-8.4%) for soybean between \r 1981 and 2010 relative to the non-warming condition, even with \r [...]"


id: e757228aa74dcfe491c8e7ec4552d1a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37992
content:
"[...] CO2 fertilisation effects (Iizumi et al., 2018). Human-induced warming \r trends since 1961 have also slowed down the growth of agricultural \r total factor productivity by 21% (Ortiz-Bobea et al., 2021). Regionally, \r heat and rainfall extremes intensified by human-induced warming in \r West Africa have reduced millet and sorghum yields by 10-20%, and \r 5-15%, respectively (Sultan et al., 2019)."


id: 9016ec1f479c88c817ef3e2a2d765c77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22559
content:
"The impacts of climate change on food provisioning have cascading \r effects on key elements of food security, such as food prices, \r household income, food safety and nutrition of vulnerable groups \r (Peri, 2017; Ubilava, 2018; 5.11, 5.12). Climate extreme events are \r frequently causing acute food insecurity (Section 5.12.3, FSIN, 2021). \r There is growing evidence that human-induced climate warming \r has amplified climate extreme events (Seneviratne et al., 2021), but \r detection and attribution of food insecurity to anthropogenic climate \r change is still limited by a lack of long-term data and complexity of \r food systems (Phalkey et al., 2015; Cooper et al., 2019). A recent event \r attribution study by Funk (2018) demonstrated that anthropogenic \r enhancement of the 2015/2016 El Nino increased drought-induced \r crop production losses in Southern Africa. Human-induced warming \r also exacerbated the 2007 drought in southern Africa, causing \r [...]"


id: 758d666dd03be5951769a9462b944e09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17915
content:
"[...] food shortages, price spikes and acute food insecurity in Lesotho \r (Verschuur et al., 2021)."


id: 19ee44b15fc276f981ba69f0d0ad50
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1764
content:
"Extreme climate events will become more frequent and force some of \r the current food production areas beyond the safe climatic space for \r production (high confidence) (Sections 5.4.3, 5.5.2). Globally, 10% of \r the currently suitable area for major crops and livestock is projected \r to be climatically unsuitable in mid-century and 31-34% by the end \r of the century under SSP5-8.5 (Kummu et al., 2021). Adverse effects \r of climate change on food production will become more severe when \r global temperatures rise by more than 2degC (Sections 5.4.4.1, 5.12.4.1). \r One study estimated that the heat stress from projected 3degC warming \r above baseline (1986-2005) would reduce labour capacity by 30-50% \r in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, leading to a 5% increase \r in crop prices because of higher labour cost and production losses, \r thereby undermining food availability, access and livelihood (de Lima \r et  al., 2021). Thiault et  al. (2019) projected that, by 2100, climate \r [...]"


id: 480d547dfd787084df0a50b271b47a7d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9896
content:
"[...] change under RCP8.5 could have negative impacts on both agriculture \r and marine fisheries productivity in countries where 90% of the world \r population live. A global analysis of shellfish aquaculture estimated \r that habitat suitability will decline beyond 2060 globally, but much \r sooner in some Asian countries (Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020; 5.9.1). \r These negative effects in the second half of the century will be much \r less under RCP2.6."


id: 32d2ef3db13c5e865de83c2921422362
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6210
content:
"Projecting future climate impacts relies on modelling that combines \r climate data with data from experimental studies testing how species \r respond to each climate factor. In cropping and forest systems, a \r network of experimental studies with plants exposed to elevated CO2\r concentrations, ozone and elevated temperature provides data on the \r fundamental responses to climate and atmospheric conditions (i.e., \r free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) and temperature free-air \r controlled enhancement (T-FACE) systems). FACE results have been \r combined and assessed more extensively since AR5 (Bishop et  al., \r 2014; Haworth et al., 2016; Kimball, 2016; Ainsworth and Long, 2021). \r Field-based FACE studies have several advantages over more enclosed \r testing chambers, although results from more controlled experiments \r and coordination between different methods continue to give new \r insights into crop responses to climate change and variability (Drag \r [...]"


id: 632ca6aeefc194ade8513d54c89e11ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14743
content:
"[...] et al., 2020; Ainsworth and Long, 2021; Sun et al., 2021). Experimental \r results have limitations and can be difficult to scale up (Porter "


id: 8635433ce132dccaeef8904280060bd4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20763
content:
"performance and sensitivity to temperature, water, nitrogen and CO2\r within AgMIP, with the focus mostly on major annual crops (Valdivia \r et al., 2015; Ruane et al., 2017; Muller et al., 2021a). Differences in \r model type, structures and input data can result in large variation in \r projections, particularly for the response of crops to elevated CO2 and \r temperature (5.4.3.1); methods for quantifying and minimising this \r uncertainty have been developed, but improvement is still needed ( \r Asseng et al., 2015; Li et al., 2015; Zhao et al., 2017; Folberth et al., \r 2019; Tao et al., 2020; Muller et al., 2021a; Ruane et al., 2021). The \r use of multi-model intercomparisons has widened the range of \r uncertainties but has increased the robustness of impact assessments \r (Asseng et al., 2013; Challinor et al., 2014; Zhao et al., 2017). Model \r outputs are strongly influenced by decisions over which factors to \r include; for example, including drought impacts can result in positive \r [...]"


id: cb57710f1481746f220d082f3c9497d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33104
content:
"[...] yield projections switching to neutral or negative values (Gray et al., \r 2016; Jin et  al., 2018). Models are also limited in their ability to \r incorporate socioeconomic drivers and extreme events (Porter et al., \r 2014; Campbell et al., 2016; Ruane et al., 2017; Jagermeyr and Frieler, \r 2018; Webber et al., 2018; Schewe et al., 2019)."


id: d0fb147e80cdedb180ac20773c8a0f1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34115
content:
"Modelling approaches differ widely and serve different purposes \r (Table 5.2; Porter et al., 2014; Jones, 2017a). The use of process-based and \r statistical modelling alongside remote sensing and other spatial data \r has grown. Projections increasingly draw on a combination of modelling \r approaches and coordinated efforts for model intercomparisons and \r ensemble techniques, using standardised emission scenarios (RCPs). \r For major crops, models of global yield impacts from CO2 concentration, \r air temperature and precipitation have been refined and compared \r (Challinor et al., 2014; Iizumi et al., 2017; Ruane et al., 2017; Zhao et al., \r 2017; Rojas et al., 2019). Despite advances since AR5, modelling is still \r constrained by limited data from field experiments (Ruane et al., 2017). \r Increasingly, studies attempt to incorporate effects of elevated CO2, \r ozone and climate extremes (Barlow et al., 2015; Schauberger et al., \r [...]"


id: f67b9f0d75d4b8a510900168fb42bbc5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40734
content:
"[...] 2019a; Vogel et  al., 2019), as well as attempts to incorporate more \r complex interactions with soil and crop management (Basso et  al., \r 2018; Smith et al., 2020b). However, only a few models consider crop \r protein content and other quality factors (Nuttall et al., 2017; Asseng \r et al., 2019). Some models take account of the impacts of climate on \r the timing of key biological events (phenology) in the target species; \r however, incorporating biotic interactions with pests, pathogens and \r pollinators remains a challenge (Table 5.2; Sections 5.4.1, 5.4.3)."


id: 37fd5e11096d58635c4364153bf8c578
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7056
content:
"For long-term projections and integrated assessments, a large \r component of uncertainty remains in the ability to represent \r socioeconomic responses to climate change and the degree to which \r these will mitigate or exacerbate climatic changes (Valdivia et al., 2015; \r Prestele et al., 2016; Arneth et al., 2019). This includes the potential \r adaptation responses of food producers. Models that incorporate \r alternative socioeconomic responses offer one solution (e.g., AgMIP) \r (Nelson et  al., 2014; Von Lampe et  al., 2014; Wiebe et  al., 2015; \r Rosenzweig et al., 2018; van Zeist et al., 2020). Another approach is \r the use of solution-oriented scenarios to compare the effectiveness \r of adaptation options (Le Mouel and Forslund, 2017; Arneth et  al., \r 2019), or to quantify the time period in which adaptation responses \r will become essential (Challinor et al., 2016; Rojas et al., 2019). Others \r point to the necessity of managing food systems within the context of \r [...]"


id: 2edb8c23647a0044094456c912ee54fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5517
content:
"Increasingly, projections look across different disciplines and across \r multiple components of the food system, including livestock, fisheries \r and mixed farming systems (Campbell et al., 2016; Mbow et al., 2019). \r Major timber species have been modelled, with projected impacts \r on productivity, duration of rotation and distribution (i.e., climate \r suitability) (Albert et  al., 2018). Livestock systems are influenced \r by plant productivity projections via their feedstock, for example, \r rangeland cattle impacted by changes in net primary production \r (NPP) (Boone et al., 2018). Direct climate impacts on animals are also \r projected, using indices based on direct observations (Section 5.5.3). \r Since AR5, Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison \r Project (Fish-MIP) has allowed for global intercomparisons and \r ensemble projections of marine fisheries, and projections capturing \r interactions from multiple food systems (e.g., Inter-Sectoral Impact \r [...]"


id: ae551a02890648910351630fe1090fac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27902
content:
"in crop breeding, are often not explicitly accounted for in modelling \r studies, but more recent studies do quantify the potential for \r adaptation (Iizumi et al., 2017; Tao et al., 2017; Aggarwal et al., 2019; \r Minoli et al., 2019). To account for this complexity, case studies rely on \r data derived from the perception and practices of stakeholders who \r are engaged in adaptation (usually autonomous adaptation) (Hussain \r et al., 2016; Lipper et al., 2017; Ankrah, 2018; Sousa-Silva et al., 2018). \r Case studies use a range of different indicators to monitor climate \r response options, making quantitative comparisons more difficult (Gil \r et al., 2017; Vermeulen et al., 2018). However, systematic comparisons \r have provided valuable insights (Descheemaeker et al., 2018; Shaffril \r et al., 2018; Aggarwal et al., 2019; Bene et al., 2019); for example, the \r sustainable livelihood framework has been applied widely to diverse \r [...]"


id: a0dbe108e2bb4e944f769ad44bbb11cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25520
content:
"[...] aquatic systems (Bueno and Soto, 2017; Barange and Cochrane, 2018) \r and the Livelihood Vulnerability Index is well used across systems \r (Section 5.14). Coordinated efforts such as the AgMIP also provide \r systematic assessments (Blanchard et al., 2017; Lipper et al., 2017; \r Antle et  al., 2018). Nonetheless, the full effectiveness of different \r adaptation options is difficult to assess given that many impacts \r have not yet occurred (due to the cumulative nature of impacts and \r the inertia in the climate system) (Stocker et al., 2013; Zickfeld et al., \r 2013)."


id: 5764d5db1df18ce96e6feb0d1834b753
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12635
content:
"Climate impacts for the past 20-50 years differ by crops and regions. \r Positive effects have been identified for rice and wheat in Eastern Asia, \r and for wheat in Northern Europe. The effects are mostly negative \r in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Caribbean, Southern Asia, \r and Western and Southern Europe. Climate factors that affected long\u0002term yield trends also differ between regions. For example, in Western \r Africa, 1degC warming above preindustrial climate has increased heat \r and rainfall extremes, and reduced yields by 10-20% for millet and \r 5-15% for sorghum (Sultan et al., 2019). In Australia, declined rainfall \r and increased temperatures reduced yield potential of wheat by \r 27%, accounting for the low yield growth between 1990 and 2015 \r (Hochman et  al., 2017). In Southern Europe, climate warming has \r negatively impacted yields of almost all major crops, leading to recent \r yield stagnation (Moore and Lobell, 2015; Agnolucci and De Lipsis, \r [...]"


id: b5db59139341a791525609de9458aa82
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29217
content:
"limited, but studies are focused on increased tree mortality and yield \r loss due to drought, heat and impacts from variability in the timing of \r the wet and dry seasons (Glenn et al., 2013; Ramirez and Kallarackal, \r 2015); see Box 5.7). In fruit trees, warming and climate variability have \r already affected fruit quality, such as acidity and texture in apples, or \r skin colour in grape berries (Sugiura et al., 2013; Sugiura et al., 2018). \r The reliability and stability of harvests has been impacted by climate \r variability, changes in the distribution of pests and pathogens (Seidel, \r 2014; Bois et al., 2017), and the mismatch of important phenological \r events (such as bud emergence and flowering) (Guo and Shen, 2015; \r Legave et  al., 2015; Ito et  al., 2018; Vitasse et  al., 2018). Perennial \r crops are particularly vulnerable to these impacts as they are exposed \r throughout the year, with little potential for growers to adjust planting \r [...]"


id: 32669b4cf3398143150620aa3336a47
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6122
content:
"[...] date or location. Negative impacts via disruption to phenology and \r pest dynamics are best studied in grapevine (see Box 5.2)."


id: 564699f8ae19bab4f88512db7da993cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12446
content:
"While those working with major crops have benefited from the release \r of new cultivars, those growing other crops are typically reliant \r on a heritage cultivars or landraces. While Indigenous knowledge \r and local smallholder knowledge and practices play an important \r role in supporting agrobiodiversity which provides genetic diversity \r resistant to climate-related stresses, a global and national focus in \r international research, subsidies and support for a few crop species \r has contributed to an overall decline in agrobiodiversity (FAO, 2019e; \r Song et al., 2019) Similarly, there is a lack of agronomic innovation and \r research to service 'minor' crops (Moriondo et al., 2015; Manners and \r van Etten, 2018). Even some high-value commodities grown outside \r high-income countries suffer from imbalances in the focus of available \r credit, research and innovation (Section 5.4.4.3; Glover, 2014; Fischer, \r 2016; Farrell et al., 2018). There is a possibility that a lack of adaptive \r [...]"


id: 809deec711cd93e3f2a2924f4a7db785
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19756
content:
"[...] capacity and policy support will drive these growers to move away \r from these diverse crops, further reducing the resilience of food \r systems by increasing risk of crop loss from pests, disease and drought \r and potential loss of Indigenous or local knowledge (Section 5.13.5, \r Table Box  5.1.1). In the Andean Altiplano of Bolivia, for example, \r Indigenous farmers have traditionally managed a diverse set of native \r crops which are drought and frost-tolerant, using cultural practices \r of seed selection and exchange, but have faced an increase in pests "


id: 5d1b7c47b6779c407d2dd0e2936080b8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13652
content:
"The impact of climate change on crop yield without adaptation projected \r in the 21st century is generally negative even with the CO2 fertilisation \r effects, with the overall median per-decade effect being -2.3% for \r maize, -3.3% for soybean, -0.7% for rice and -1.3% for wheat, which \r is consistent with previous IPCC assessments (Porter et al., 2014). The \r effects vary greatly within each crop, timeframe and RCP, but show a \r few common features across crops (Figure  5.6a). Differences in the \r projected impacts between RCPs are not pronounced by mid-century. \r From then onward, the negative effect becomes more pronounced \r under RCP8.5, notably in maize. Rice yields show less variation across \r models than other crops presumably because simulations are mostly \r under irrigated conditions. A part of the uncertainty in the projection is \r due to regional differences (Figure 5. 6b). Negative impacts on cereals \r [...]"


id: 10278fb4f0633119a2527300973225d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28
content:
"[...] are projected in Africa and Central and South America at the end of the \r century, which agrees with the previous studies (Aggarwal et al., 2019; \r Porter et al., 2019)."


id: 7117dcfaaf12a9f2e10b0e85b4e26bef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17154
content:
"There are significant interactions between CO2, temperature, cultivars, \r nitrogen and phosphorous nutrients (Kimball, 2016; Toreti et al., 2020): \r positive effects of rising CO2 on yield are significantly reduced by higher \r temperatures for soybean, wheat and rice (medium confidence) (Ruiz\u0002Vera et al., 2013; Cai et al., 2016; Gray et al., 2016; Hasegawa et al., \r 2016; Obermeier et al., 2016; Purcell et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018). In \r above-ground vegetables, elevated CO2 can in some cases reduce the \r impact of other climate stressors, while in others the negative impacts \r of other abiotic factors negate the potential benefit of elevated CO2\r (Bourgault et  al., 2017; Bourgault et  al., 2018; Parvin et  al., 2018; \r Parvin et al., 2019). Significant variation exists among cultivars in yield \r response to elevated CO2, which is positively correlated with yield \r potential in rice and soybean, suggesting the potential to develop \r [...]"


id: 1962f5121db0d74927dd495065630019
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1684
content:
"[...] cultivars for enhanced productivity under future elevated [CO2] \r (Ainsworth and Long, 2021)."


id: b9417d55a0cc9c3031d357b9891eb4c8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29798
content:
"Elevated CO2 reduces some important nutrients such as protein, iron, \r zinc and some grains, fruit or vegetables to varying degrees depending \r on crop species and cultivars (high confidence) (Mattos et al., 2014; \r Myers et al., 2014; Dong et al., 2018; Scheelbeek et al., 2018; Zhu et al., \r 2018a; Jin et al., 2019; Ujiie et al., 2019). This is of particular relevance \r for fruit and vegetable crops given their importance in human \r nutrition (high confidence) (see Section 5.12.4 for potential impacts \r on nutrition; Nelson et  al., 2018; Springmann et  al., 2018). Recent \r experimental studies (Section 5.3.2), however, show some complex and \r counteracting interactions between CO2 and temperature in wheat, \r soybean and rice; heat stress negates the adverse effect of elevated \r CO2 on some nutrient elements (Macabuhay et al., 2018; Kohler et al., \r 2019; Wang et al., 2019b). The CO2 by temperature interaction for grain \r [...]"


id: 6852063d87314b4d1c2415450ad97712
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15622
content:
"[...] quality needs to be better understood quantitatively to predict food \r nutritional security in the future."


id: e50a592b724a1e9f0c84497f9b5a1efe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37589
content:
"models have been used (SM5.3). Zhao (2019) introduced a modelling \r approach that could be used to generate yield projections for a wider \r range of annual crops. The discussion here also draws on reviews of more \r restricted experimental studies. Negative impacts of climate change on \r crop production are expected across many cropping systems (Figure 5.8). \r Apart from the direct effects of elevated carbon dioxide, most changes \r are expected to have negative effects on crop production. Changes in \r temperature and rainfall are most often mentioned as drivers of climate \r impacts, but expected changes in phenology, pests and diseases are \r also raising concerns. Scheelbeek et al. (2018) synthesised projections \r for vegetables and legumes, based on their response to climate factors \r under experimental conditions; in most cases, the magnitude of the \r changes is comparable to the RCP8.5 2100 forecasts. Scheelbeek et al. \r [...]"


id: fbc988bf64197583b4b02ce3a922cbe8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41667
content:
"[...] (2018) projected yield changes of: +22.0% (+11.6% to +32.5%) for a \r 250 ppm increase in CO2 concentration; -34.7% (-44.6% to -24.9%) \r for a 50% reduction in water availability; -8.9% (-15.6% to -2.2%) \r for a 25% increase in ozone concentration; -31.5% for a 4degC increase \r in temperature (in papers with a baseline temperature of >20degC). \r Overall, impacts are expected to be largely negative in regions where \r the temperature is currently above 20degC, while some yield gains are \r expected in cooler regions (provided that water availability and other \r conditions are maintained). Scheelbeek et al. (2018) did not consider \r changes in pest and disease pressure, which are projected to increase \r with warming (see SM5.3)."


id: 818e0c50271b86dbd772aadf120723b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19918
content:
"Global yield modelling is lacking for woody perennial crops. \r Experimental studies suggest negative impacts on yields due to reduced \r water supply and increased soil salinity, as well as from warming and \r ozone (although evidence was limited for these) (Alae-Carew et al., \r 2020). Increasing CO2 is expected to increase yields, but only where \r other factors, such as warming, do not become yield-limiting (Alae\u0002Carew et al., 2020). Many local projections include large uncertainty \r because of a lack of observational data and reliable parametrisation \r (Moriondo et  al., 2015; Mosedale et  al., 2016; Kerr et  al., 2018; \r Mayer et  al., 2019b). Most perennial crop models have found large \r negative impacts on yield and suitability, although CO2 fertilisation \r and phenology are not always considered (Lobell and Field, 2011; \r Glenn et al., 2013). Perennial crops are often grown in dryland areas \r where rainfall or irrigation water can be critical (Mrabet et al., 2020). \r [...]"


id: 1e189297e561077cb10f09d6fa5115e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2493
content:
"[...] Valverde (2015) found that yield losses in the Mediterranean region \r were largely driven by reduced rainfall, with maximum estimated \r yield losses of 5.4% for grape, 14.9% for olive and 27.2% for almond \r under a relatively hot and dry scenario (by 2041-2070). Moriondo \r (2015) highlight the need for perennial crop models to incorporate \r phenology and extreme climate events. Equally challenging is the need \r to estimate the impact of biotic changes, particularly climate-driven \r movement of pests and diseases (Ponti et al., 2014; Bosso et al., 2016; \r Schulze-Sylvester and Reineke, 2019)."


id: b15856d5b140b3d548170f6010045ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28429
content:
"Temperature is the primary determinant for vine development. Recent warming trends have advanced flowering, maturity and harvest \r (high confidence) (Koufos et al., 2014; Cook and Wolkovich, 2016; Hall et al., 2016; Ruml et al., 2016; van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, \r 2017; Koufos et  al., 2020; Wang et  al., 2020b; Wang and Li, 2020), and wine-growing regions have expanded outside the normal \r temperature bounds of locally grown varieties (limited evidence, high agreement) (Kryza et al., 2015; Irimia et al., 2018). Milder winters \r have affected harvest in ice-wine growing regions (Pickering et al., 2015). Higher temperatures have mixed effects depending on site, but \r generally decrease grape quality (Barnuud et al., 2014; Morales et al., 2014; Sweetman et al., 2014; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; Kizildeniz et al., \r 2018). Warming increases sugar accumulation and decreases acidity (Leolini et al., 2019). Secondary metabolites are negatively affected \r [...]"


id: d385e39ba9fb8ed15e3c9e7fc993bb45
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34554
content:
"[...] (Biasi et al., 2019; Teslic et al., 2019). Developmental phases are projected to proceed faster in response to warming (high confidence) \r (Fraga et al., 2016a; Fraga et al., 2016b; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri et al., 2017; Costa et al., 2019; Molitor and Junk, 2019; Sanchez, 2019). \r However extreme high temperatures may have inhibitory effects on development (Cuccia et al., 2014)."


id: 6231ed402dcdbe8acd254ea9b67db348
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14550
content:
"In some cases, irrigation is required, and more frequent droughts are a key concern for yield and fruit quality (Morales et al., 2014; \r Bonada et al., 2015; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; Salazar-Parra, 2015; Kizildeniz et al., 2018; Funes et al., 2020). Water stress reduces shoot \r growth and berry size, and increases tannin and anthocyanin content (van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). However, controlled water stress \r produces positive impacts on wine quality, increasing skin phenolic compounds (van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017). The level of \r stress will depend on soil type, texture and organic matter content (Fraga et al., 2016a; Fraga et al., 2016b; Bonfante, 2017; Garcia de \r Cortazar-Atauri et al., 2017; Leibar et al., 2017; Costa et al., 2019; Molitor and Junk, 2019; Sanchez, 2019). Increases in water demands \r with potential negative effects from increased soil salinity are among the most common effects of climate change in irrigated regions \r [...]"


id: ef02fbb3f7f36cfcf101821c0657f46b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39418
content:
"Adoption of practices that build SOC can improve crop resilience to climate-change-related stresses such as agricultural drought. Iizumi \r and Wagai (2019) found that a relatively small increase in topsoil (0-30 cm) SOC could reduce drought damages to crops over 70% of \r the global harvested area. The effects of increasing SOC are more positive in drylands owing to more efficient use of rainwater, which \r can increase drought tolerance (Iizumi and Wagai, 2019). Similarly, Sun et al. (2020) found that, relative to local conventional tillage, \r conservation agriculture has a win-win outcome of enhanced C sequestration and increased crop yield in arid regions. However, the \r impact of no-till may be minimal if not supplemented with residue cover and cover crops. As such, this is a highly debated area where \r some authors argue that no-till has limited effect and the evidence outside drylands is weak. Furthermore, the use of crop residues is \r [...]"


id: c690244b0a0a7d0fcf0c365c34dded64
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vector_id: 32237
content:
"[...] constrained by its alternative uses (e.g., fuel, livestock feed, etc.) in much of the developing world. Practices that build up SOC may \r encourage soil microbial populations, which in turn can increase yield stability under drought conditions (Prudent et al., 2020)."


id: b86b92c7e41212bfe7c8dafb0e4429cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29655
content:
"A global-scale meta-analysis estimated a 3-7% yield loss per degree \r Celsius increase in temperature (Zhao et al., 2017). Two global-scale \r studies using multiple global gridded crop models found that growing\u0002season adaptation through cultivar changes offsets global production \r losses up to 2degC of temperature increase (Minoli et al., 2019; Zabel et al., \r 2021). While these studies do not account for CO2 fertilisation effects, \r another global-scale study with the CO2 fertilisation effects (Iizumi \r et  al., 2020) showed that residual damage (climate change impacts \r after adaptation) would start to increase almost exponentially from \r 2040 towards the end of the century under RCP8.5. The cost required \r for adaptation and due to residual damage is projected to rise from \r USD 63 billion at 1.5degC to USD 80 billion at 2degC and to USD 128 billion \r at 3degC (Iizumi et al., 2020). All these global studies project that risks \r [...]"


id: e9e01efebbfb62ebb9b0681d8ec0df48
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"[...] and damages are greater in tropical and arid regions, where crops are \r exposed to heat and drought stresses more often than in temperate \r regions (Sun et al., 2019; Kummu et al., 2021; SM5.4). There are still \r large uncertainties in the crop model projections (Muller et al., 2021a), \r but these multiple lines of evidence suggest that warming beyond \r +2degC (projected to be reached by mid-century under high-emission \r scenarios) will substantially increase the cost of adaptation and the \r residual damage to major crops (high confidence). The residual damage \r will prevail much sooner in currently warmer regions, where the effect \r of even a modest temperature increase is greater (Section 5.4.3.2)."


id: a5e7020e5258d89baec32b7132861130
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26409
content:
"Other breeding approaches assisted by genomics have been making \r steady gains in introducing traits that adapt crops to climate \r change (high confidence). DNA sequence information is used to \r identify markers of desirable traits that can be enriched in breeding \r programmes, as well as to quantify the genetic variability in species \r (Gepts, 2014; Brozynska et al., 2016; Voss-Fels and Snowdon, 2016). \r However, breeding for smallholder farmers and the stresses caused by \r climate change are unlikely to be addressed by the private sector and \r will require more public investment and adjusting to the local social\u0002ecological system (Glover, 2014; Heinemann et  al., 2014; Acevedo \r et al., 2020). Modern biotechnology has not demonstrated the scale \r neutrality needed to serve smallholder-dominated agroecosystems, \r due to a combination of the kinds of traits and restrictions that come \r from the predominant intellectual property rights instruments used in \r [...]"


id: d3d4947409ec6423f215523187440af3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34607
content:
"[...] their commercialisation, as well as the focus on a small number of \r major crop species (medium confidence) (Fischer, 2016; Montenegro \r de Wit et al., 2020)."


id: e235ad3bc9570c64d06e7afb776302c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37080
content:
"Diversifying agricultural systems is an adaptation strategy that can \r strengthen resilience to climate change, with socioeconomic and \r environmental co-benefits, but trade-offs and benefits vary by socio\u0002ecological context (high confidence) (Table  5.6, M'Kaibi et  al., 2015; \r Bellon et  al., 2016; Jones, 2017b; Schulte et  al., 2017; Jarecki et  al., \r 2018; Jones et al., 2018; Luna-Gonzalez and Sorensen, 2018; Sibhatu \r and Qaim, 2018; Renard and Tilman, 2019; Rosa-Schleich et al., 2019; \r Bozzola and Smale, 2020; Mulwa and Visser, 2020). Crop diversification \r alongside livestock, fish and other species can be applied at various \r scales in a range of systems, from rainfed or irrigated to urban and home \r gardens in multiple spatial and temporal arrangements such as mixed \r planting, intercrops, crop rotation, diversified management of field \r margins, agroforestry (Section 5.10.1.3) and integrated crop livestock \r [...]"


id: 5bedf3e2fdc97e4c2345da2bd04dcc9b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13431
content:
"[...] systems (Section 5.10.1.1, Isbell et al., 2017; Kremen and Merenlender, \r 2018; Dainese et al., 2019; Rosa-Schleich et al., 2019; Hussain et al., \r 2020; Renwick et al., 2020; Tamburini et al., 2020; Snapp et al., 2021; \r see Section 5.14 and Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2)."


id: c3ea9155d5959d8a1eb148a4b806f4ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31748
content:
"Many grassland-based livestock systems are vulnerable to climate \r change and increases in climate variability (high confidence) (Dasgupta \r et  al., 2014; Sloat et  al., 2018; Stanimirova et  al., 2019). Decadal \r vegetation changes from warming and drying trends have been \r detected in North American grasslands, with implications for species \r composition, rangeland quality and economic viability of grazing \r livestock (Rondeau et  al., 2018; Reeves et  al., 2020). Feed quality \r in South Asian grasslands has been negatively affected, reducing \r food security (Rasul et  al., 2019). Increased grassland degradation \r has been observed in parts of Inner Mongolia (Nandintsetseg et al., \r 2021). Changing seasonality, increasing frequency of drought and \r rising temperatures are affecting pastoral systems globally (high \r confidence). These and other drivers are reducing herd mobility, \r decreasing productivity, increasing incidence of vector borne diseases \r [...]"


id: f70d503983f2fc47900ecacad6cf743a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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vector_id: 40836
content:
"[...] and parasites, and reducing access to water and feed (high agreement,\r medium evidence) (Lopez-i-Gelats et  al., 2016; Vidal-Gonzalez and \r Nahhass, 2018; de Leeuw et al., 2020)."


id: a1013e97764beb631642ed8e3e69bda6
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"Climate change will have effects on future distribution, incidence \r and severity of climate-sensitive infectious diseases of livestock (high \r confidence) (Bett et al., 2017). In an assessment of climate sensitivity \r of European human and domestic animal infectious pathogens, 63% \r were sensitive to rainfall and temperature, and zoonotic pathogens \r were more climate-sensitive than human- or animal-only pathogens \r (McIntyre et al., 2017). Over the last 75 years, >220 emerging zoonotic \r diseases, some associated with domesticated livestock, have been \r identified, several of which may be affected by climate change, \r particularly vector-borne diseases (Vaillancourt and Ogden, 2016; \r see Cross-Chapter Box  ILLNESS in Chapter 2). Walsh et  al. (2018) \r identified both temperature and rainfall as influential factors in \r predicting increasing anthrax outbreaks in northern latitudes. Growing \r [...]"


id: 7fdb87420de64e676533fe7ef4805c9f
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"[...] infectious disease burdens in domesticated animals may have wide\u0002ranging impacts on the vulnerability of rural livestock producers in the \r future, particularly related to human health and projected increases \r in zoonoses (high confidence) (Bett et  al., 2017; Heffernan, 2018; \r Rushton et al., 2018; Meade et al., 2019)."


id: e5b76671f90286eef7a93077d1a73e5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"Most domestic livestock have comfort zones in the range 10-30degC, \r depending on species and breed (Nardone et  al., 2006). At higher \r temperatures, animals eat 3-5% less per additional degree of \r temperature, reducing their productivity and fertility. Heat stress \r suppresses the immune and endocrine system, enhancing susceptibility \r of the animal to disease (Das et  al., 2016b). Recent stagnation in \r dairy production in West Africa and China may be associated with \r increased periods of high daily temperatures (low confidence) \r (Rahimi et al., 2020; Ranjitkar et al., 2020). Increases in the productive \r capacity of domestic animals can compromise thermal acclimation \r and plasticity, creating further loss. Escalating demand for livestock \r products in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) may necessitate \r considerable adaptation in the face of new thermal environments \r (medium confidence) (Collier and Gebremedhin, 2015; Theusme et al., \r [...]"


id: 736ed17260959a66820c63e5194d14d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"[...] 2021). Heat effects on productivity have been summarised for pigs \r (da Fonseca de Oliveira et al., 2019), sheep and goats (Sejian et al., \r 2018), and cattle (Herbut et  al., 2019). The direct effects of higher "


id: 2a6af32d09a61bb2a6c79bee8c145fd0
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"Vulnerability to climate change depends on demography and social \r roles (Mbow et al., 2019). Gender inequities can act as a risk multiplier, \r with women being more vulnerable than men to climate-change\u0002induced food insecurity and related risks (high confidence) (Cross\u0002Chapter Box  GENDER in Chapter 18). Women and men often have \r differential and unequal control over different productive assets and \r the benefits they provide, such as income from livestock (Ngigi et al., \r 2017; Musinguzi et  al., 2018). Indigenous livestock keepers can be \r more vulnerable to climate change, partly due to ongoing processes of \r land fragmentation (Hobbs et al., 2008), historical land dispossession, \r discrimination and colonialisation, creating greater levels of poverty \r and marginalisation (Stephen, 2018). Adaptation actions may also be \r affected by gender and other social inequities (Balehey et al., 2018; \r Dressler et al., 2019). Men and women heads of household may access \r [...]"


id: f2339fd5c748b2ec01c46b141445fa6f
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"[...] institutional support for adaptation in different ways (Assan et  al., \r 2018). Further research is warranted to evaluate alternative gendered \r and equity-based approaches that can address differences in adaptive \r capacity within communities."


id: ccfe82bfe79eddda82cfb54e949cecdb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Increased temperatures and CO2 concentrations may increase \r herbaceous growth and favour legumes over grasses in mixed pastures \r (He et al., 2019). These effects may be modified by changes in rainfall \r patterns, plant competition, perennial growth habits and plant-animal \r interactions. The cumulative effect of these factors is uncertain. Large, \r persistent declines in forage quality are projected, irrespective of \r warming, under elevated CO2 conditions (600 ppm and +1.5degC day/3degC \r night temperature increases) in North American grasslands (Augustine \r et al., 2018). Rising CO2 concentrations may result in losses of iron, zinc \r and protein in plants by up to 8% by 2050 (Smith and Myers, 2018). \r Little information is available on possible impacts on carbon-based \r micronutrients, such as vitamins. About 57% of grasses globally are C3 \r plants and thus susceptible to CO2 effects on their nutritional quality \r [...]"


id: 928bb4ae2aab6e84bd1cd9fdc417795c
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"North America. Lallo et al. (2018) estimated that global warming of \r 1.5degC and 2degC may exceed limits for normal thermo-regulation of \r livestock animals and result in persistent heat stress for animals in the \r Caribbean. Breed differences in heat stress resistance in dairy animals \r are now being quantified (Gantner et al., 2017), as are effects on sow \r reproductive performance in temperate climates (Wegner et al., 2016). \r Estimates of losses in milk production due to heat stress in parts of \r the USA, UK and West Africa to the end of the century range from \r 1% to 17% (Hristov et  al., 2018; Fodor et  al., 2018; Wreford and \r Topp, 2020; Rahimi et al., 2020). Much larger losses in dairy and beef \r production due to heat stress are projected for many parts of the \r tropics and subtropics: these could amount to USD 9 billion per year \r for dairy and USD 31 billion per for beef to end-century under SSP5-\r 8.5, approximately 5% and 14% of the global value of production of \r [...]"


id: 3e280dd23234438d5476e84b84e69ca
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"Livestock play important social (Kitalyi et  al., 2005) and cultural \r (Gandini and Villa, 2003) roles in many societies. Climate change will \r negatively affect the provisioning of social benefits in many of the \r world's grasslands (medium confidence). Examples include moving to \r semi-private land ownership models, driven in part by climate change, \r that are changing social networks and limiting socio-ecological \r resilience in pastoral systems in East Africa (Kibet et al., 2016; Bruyere \r et  al., 2018) and Asia (Cao et  al., 2018a); altering traditional food, \r resource and medicine sharing mechanisms in West Africa (Boafo \r et  al., 2016); and the limited ability of current livestock systems to \r satisfy societies' demand for CES in Northwest Europe (Bengtsson \r et  al., 2019). The societal impacts of climate change on livestock \r systems may interact with drivers of change and increase herders' \r vulnerability via processes of sedentarisation and land fragmentation, \r [...]"


id: 994d86c29c883b43eddaabb66c48da92
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"[...] both of which may result in decreased animal access to rangelands \r (Adhikari et al., 2015; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). \r Stronger linkages are needed between ecosystem service and food \r security research and policy to address these challenges (Gentle and \r Thwaites, 2016; Bengtsson et al., 2019)."


id: 2557461012aa1a168b078ea6c21f5532
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"Many grassland-based livestock systems have been highly resilient \r to past climate risk, providing a sound starting point for current \r and future climate change adaptation (Hobbs et  al., 2008). These \r adaptations include more effective matching of stocking rates with \r pasture or other feed production; adjusting herd and watering point \r management to altered seasonal and spatial patterns of forage \r production; managing diet quality, which also helps reduce enteric \r fermentation in ruminants and thus GHG emissions (using diet \r supplements, legumes, choice of introduced pasture species and \r pasture fertility management); more effective use of silage, rotational \r grazing or other forms of pasture spelling; fire management to control \r woody thickening; using better-adapted livestock breeds and species; \r restoration of degraded pastureland; migratory pastoralist activities; \r and a wide range of biosecurity activities to monitor and manage the \r [...]"


id: 432ac053e6aea1572cb8e6415bcd1a4c
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"[...] spread of pests, weeds and diseases (Herrero et al., 2015; Godde et al., \r 2020). Combining adaptations can result in increases in benefits in \r terms of production and livelihoods over and above those attainable \r from single adaptations (high confidence) (Bonaudo et  al., 2014; \r Thornton and Herrero, 2015; ul Haq et al., 2021)."


id: 3ddd71e1d8dbeb95f61e33e6eb9c26cf
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content:
"Information on future climate variability changes on livestock system \r productivity does not exist yet. Increases in climate variability may \r increase food insecurity in the future, mediated through increased \r crop and livestock production variability (Thornton and Herrero, 2014) \r in LMICs. Rainfall variability increases in pastoral lands have been \r linked to declining cattle numbers (Megersa et al., 2014). Changes in \r future climate variability may have large negative impacts on livestock \r system outcomes (Sloat et al., 2018; Stanimirova et al., 2019); these \r effects can be larger than those associated with gradual climate \r change (limited evidence, medium agreement) (Godde et al., 2019). \r In grasslands, Chang et al. (2017) (Europe) and Godde et al. (2020) \r (globally) projected increases in biomass inter-annual variability, \r the worst effects occurring in rangeland communities that are \r already vulnerable. Ways in which climate variability impacts have \r [...]"


id: df33f1d3d62d27a03306611f2624976e
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content:
"[...] been addressed in the past, such as via herd mobility, may become \r increasingly unviable in the future (Hobbs et al., 2008)."


id: ea1ffc322b2d462fec104173a157d784
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Alternative protein sources for human food and livestock feed are receiving considerable attention. Laboratory or 'clean meat' is one \r potential contributor to the human demand for protein in the future (SRCLL). Such technology may be highly disruptive to existing value \r chains but could lead to significant reduction in land use for pastures and crop-based animal feeds (Burton, 2019; Rosenzweig et al., \r 2020). The impacts on GHG emissions depend on the meat being substituted and the trade-off between industrial energy consumption \r and agricultural land requirements (Mattick et al., 2015; Alexander et al., 2017; Rubio et al., 2020b; Santo et al., 2020). Livestock feeds \r can make use of other protein sources: insects are generally rich in protein and can be a significant source of vitamins and minerals. Black \r soldier fly, yellow mealworm and the common housefly have been identified for potential use in feed products in the EU, for example \r [...]"


id: cf7dda6187988cd0f62658bb70019eb
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content:
"[...] (Henchion et al., 2017). Replacing land-based crops in livestock diets with some proportion of insect-derived protein may reduce the \r GHG emissions associated with livestock production, though these and other potential effects have not yet been quantified (Parodi \r et al., 2018; Section 5.13.2). Other sources are high-protein woody plants such as paper mulberry (Du et al., 2021) and algae, including \r seaweed. While microalgae and cyanobacteria are mainly sold as a dietary supplement for human consumption, they are also used as a \r feed additive for livestock and aquaculture, being nutritionally comparable to vegetable proteins. The potential for cultivated seaweed as \r a feed supplement may be even greater: some red and green seaweeds are rich in highly digestible protein. Asparagopsis taxiformis, for \r example, also decreases methane production in both cattle and sheep when used as a feed supplement (Machado et al., 2016; Li et al., \r [...]"


id: a5d0f3f56b515ea63bde44ecfde6ec37
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26398
content:
"[...] 2018b). Novel protein sources may have considerable potential for sustainably delivering protein for food and feed alike, though their \r nutritional, environmental, technological and socioeconomic impacts at scale need to be researched and evaluated further."


id: b283bf863c164895874f057e4133a21f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28646
content:
"Forests play a vital role in the ecology of the planet, including \r climate regulation, and provide a range of important ecosystem \r services within their local landscape. Moreover, they are essential \r to the well-being of millions of people around the world. Forests are \r sources of food contributing about 0.6% of global food consumption \r and provide important products, such as timber and non-timber \r forest products (NTFPs) (FAO, 2014). Indigenous Peoples and local \r communities are estimated to manage at least 17% of total carbon \r (or 293 x 109\r  Mg) stored in forest in 64 assessed countries (RRI, \r 2018a). While small in number, numerous local communities around \r the world are highly or entirely dependent on forests for their food \r supply (Karttunen et  al., 2017). An estimated 9% of the world's \r rural population is lifted above the extreme poverty line because \r of income from forest resources (World Bank, 2016). Additionally, \r [...]"


id: 93cde45300902536cbbd8d7bd71c8a67
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content:
"[...] forest income plays a particularly important role in diversifying the \r income sources of poor households, reducing their vulnerability to \r loss from one source of income. This section covers an assessment \r of the impacts of climate change on forestry production systems and \r the adaptation options available. Non-timber forest products will be \r covered in the next section."


id: c1cc1ad36b2715dd3cde9a7f1eef4062
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content:
"In the past years, tree mortality continued to increase in many parts \r of the world. Large pulses of tree mortality were consistently linked \r to warmer and drier than average conditions for forests throughout \r the temperate and boreal biomes (high confidence) (Sommerfeld \r et al., 2018; Seidl et al., 2020). Long-term monitoring of tropical forests \r indicates that climate change has begun to increase tree mortality and \r alter regeneration (Hubau et al., 2020; Sullivan et al., 2020). Climate\u0002related die back has also been observed due to novel interactions \r between the life cycles of trees and pest species (Kurz et  al., 2008; \r Lesk et  al., 2017; Sambaraju et  al., 2019). A recent example of the \r impacts of climatic extremes is the European drought of 2018 (Buras \r et al., 2020), which led to a significant browning of the vegetation and \r resulted in widespread tree mortality (high confidence) (Brun et  al., \r [...]"


id: e239cbc52474fbf23dc1332dc04aadd3
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"[...] 2020; Schuldt et  al., 2020). This brought markets for conifer timber \r close to collapse in parts of Europe, posing considerable challenges \r for timber-based forestry and leading to cascading impacts on society \r (Hlasny et  al., 2021). Overall, there is robust evidence and medium \r agreement that provisioning services of boreal and temperate forests \r are affected negatively by forest disturbances, while for cultural "


id: 97363fc42f848578ab6908855a4aaafa
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content:
"Overall, studies indicate both negative and positive climate change \r impacts on forest production systems. Some forests in the USA \r could benefit slightly from CO2 fertilisation (using IGSM-CAM and \r MIROC3.2 till 2100) resulting in increased productivity especially for \r hardwoods (Beach et al., 2015). A study across Europe showed that \r both productivity gains (mostly in Northern and Central Europe, up to \r +33%) and losses (predominately in Southern Europe, up to -37%) \r are possible until the end of the 21st century (Reyer et al., 2017). The \r study further indicated that disturbances would reduce gains and \r exacerbate losses of productivity throughout Europe under climate \r change (Reyer et al., 2017). For Central and Eastern Canada, decreasing \r biomass production is projected as a result of increasing disturbance \r from wildfire and drought (Brecka et  al., 2020). Climate-induced \r disturbances could also reduce the temporal stability of ecosystem \r [...]"


id: f03aa6044b686a7b6c5c98a53ebb64f1
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content:
"[...] service supply (Albrich et al., 2018), increasing the volatility of timber \r markets (medium confidence). More broadly, climate change could \r lead to abrupt changes and the crossing of tipping points, resulting \r in profoundly altered future forest development trajectories (Turner \r et al., 2020). Some studies suggest that such threshold could already \r be crossed at relatively low warming levels of +2degC (Elkin et al., 2013; \r Albrich et  al., 2020), with substantial implications for ecosystem \r service supply (limited evidence, high agreement)."


id: 542c78da5486f0a4580fd527e322bf4
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content:
"Regional studies on the potential future effects of climate change \r on forest production systems indicate diverse impacts. In Germany, \r drier conditions in 2070 (RCP8.5; GCMs INM-CM4, ECHAM6 and \r ACCESS1.0) are expected to benefit the mean annual increment at \r biological rotation age of Scots pine and oak, while beech might \r suffer losses of up to 3 m3 ha-1 yr-1 depending on climate scenario \r and region (Albert et al., 2018). In India, 46% of the forest grid points \r were found to have high, very high or extremely high vulnerability \r under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both RCP4.5 \r and 8.5, increasing to 49% and 54%, respectively, in the long term \r (2080s) (Sharma et al., 2017). In addition, forests in the higher rainfall \r zones show lower vulnerability as compared with drier forests under \r future climate, which is in contrast to dry forests in Central and South \r America cited above. Warming and drying trends are projected to \r [...]"


id: 6a1a51afbcb3f108524e20df04a0f986
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content:
"[...] reduce timber production in the neotropics in some cases (Hiltner \r et al., 2021). Also in India, a study using CMIP5 (RCP4.5 and 8.5 with \r two time slices 2021-2050 and 2070-2099) shows how forests in \r five districts in Himachal Pradesh in Western Himalayan region are \r vulnerable to global warming (Upgupta et al., 2015). In the Guiana \r Shield, climate projections under RCP2.5 and 8.5 led to decreasing \r the basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree \r growth and mortality rates of tropical forests (Aubry-Kientz et  al., \r 2019). In Central Africa, projections under RCP4.5 and 8.5 showed \r a general increase in growth, mortality and recruitment leading to "


id: f7332402ad29c823d18d7d6297f54f2f
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40865
content:
"According to these studies, global timber supply will increase as the \r result of an increase in global forest growth under climate change \r scenarios (medium confidence). Some studies indicate that timber \r supply is projected to increase more in tropical and subtropical areas \r because of the assumed availability of short-rotation species which \r might could adaptation easier for forest owners in these regions \r relative to others (Sohngen et al., 2001; Perez-Garcia et al., 2002; Tian \r et al., 2016), while others indicate that temperate areas will experience \r the largest increase in supply (Favero et al., 2018; Favero et al., 2021). \r The results are very sensitive to the climate change scenarios tested, \r the climate and vegetation models used and the climate drivers that \r are considered. For example, Tian et al. (2016) and Favero et al. (2018; \r 2021) used the same economic model (the global timber model) but \r [...]"


id: fa1376d9b6784355a90b3e6b3a85d55c
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41363
content:
"A wide range of measures exist to adapt sustainably managed \r forests of the boreal and temperate zone to climate change (Kolstrom \r et al., 2011; Gauthier et al., 2014; Keenan, 2015). Evidence emerging \r since the last assessment report further bolstered the notion that \r adapting the tree species composition to more warm-tolerant and less \r disturbance-prone species can significantly mitigate climate change \r impacts (high confidence) (Duveneck and Scheller, 2015; Seidl et al., \r 2018). Assisting the establishment of species in suitable habitats is \r one option to achieve climate-adapted tree species compositions \r (Benito-Garzon and Fernandez-Manjarres, 2015; Iverson et al., 2019). \r Furthermore, increasing the diversity of tree species within stands can \r have positive effects on tree growth and reduce disturbance impacts \r (high confidence) (Neuner et al., 2015; Jactel et al., 2018; Ammer, 2019). \r Some studies also suggest a positive effect of increased structural \r [...]"


id: 8b5a300886c0055b44192bc873df43d
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content:
"[...] diversity, such as on forest resilience (moderate confidence) (Lafond \r et al., 2013; Koontz et al., 2020). Managing for continuous forest cover \r can also help to maintain the forest microclimate and buffer tree \r regeneration and the forest floor community against climate change \r (high confidence) (De Frenne et  al., 2013; Zellweger et  al., 2020). \r Reducing stocking levels, such as through thinning, has been found \r to effectively mitigate drought stress (Gebhardt et  al., 2014; Elkin \r et  al., 2015; Bottero et  al., 2017), yet effects vary with species and \r ecological context (robust evidence, medium agreement) (Sohn et al., \r 2016; Castagneri et al., 2021). Also shortened rotation periods have \r been suggested in response to climate-induced increases in growth \r and disturbance (Jonsson et al., 2015; Schelhaas et al., 2015). However, \r recent evidence suggests that these measures diminish in efficiency \r [...]"


id: 17404adaa82373b4ba26113e6e6a143b
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content:
"[...] under climate change and can have corollary effects on other important \r forest functions such as carbon storage and habitat quality (medium \r confidence) (Zimova et al., 2020). Also, measures targeting landscape \r structure and composition have proven effective for increasing the \r climate resilience of forest systems (medium confidence) (Aquilue \r et  al., 2020; Honkaniemi et  al., 2020). While an increasing number \r of adaptation measures exist for sustainably managed forests, many "


id: d6cdd4cd327d8a0b85a20093fa153b04
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vector_id: 35103
content:
"2009) and play an essential role in people's physical and emotional \r health (Section CCP6.2.5; 2.8) (high confidence) (Loring and Gerlach, \r 2009; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2012). Wild foods consumed in the Arctic \r and northern regions include animals and a wide variety of plant \r foods (Wein et al., 1996; Ballew et al., 2006; Kuhnlein and Receveur, \r 2007). Wild foods contribute most of important nutrients in the diets \r of northern and Arctic people (Johnson et al., 2009; Wesche and Chan, \r 2010; Kenny et al., 2018). However, the use of traditional wild foods is \r declining across the region, lowering diet quality (Rosol et al., 2016). \r Indigenous communities in the Arctic perceive climate change related \r impacts on traditional wild foods, and availability and access to wild \r foods are forecast to continue to decline (Brinkman et al., 2016). Some \r communities hold positive views of the new opportunities a warmer \r [...]"


id: 2f4a845982415f91ef9013c8fac1e0c
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vector_id: 5587
content:
"[...] climate will bring, seeing them as a favourable trade-off relative to \r the loss of some forms of subsistence hunting (Nuttall, 2009). Climate \r change is causing ecological changes that impact Arctic wild food \r availability and abundance in many different ways, including changes \r to breeding success, migration patterns and food webs (Table  5.10, \r Markon et al., 2018)."


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"Wild foods are important to many communities that live in and \r adjacent to humid tropical forests, but climate change impacts are \r mixed (Table  5.10, Dounias et  al., 2007; Colfer, 2008; Powell et  al., \r 2015; Rowland et  al., 2017; Reyes-Garcia et  al., 2019). In some \r humid tropical forest regions, bushmeat is particularly important \r (Golden et al., 2011; Nasi et al., 2011; Fa et al., 2015; Powell et al., \r 2015; Rowland et al., 2017). In humid tropical regions, the impact of \r climate change on wild food availability, access and consumption is \r currently unclear and research is limited. There are, however, important \r interrelationships between climate change and wild food use in \r humid forests. For example, the loss of large mammals to bushmeat \r consumption and global trade will likely slow the regeneration of \r tropical forests in which a large number of tree species are dependent \r on large mammals for seed dispersal (Brodie and Gibbs, 2009). \r [...]"


id: 308074e1379eb3b96fd824d9d1519fd6
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"[...] Conversely, others argue that bushmeat provides local communities \r with an important incentive to support local maintenance of forest \r cover and, thus, carbon sequestration (Bennett et al., 2007)."


id: 69281206dcdc63633a78d9e1c2f5a23d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"The livelihoods of 10-12% of the world's population depend on \r fisheries and aquaculture (FAO, 2020c). Globally, fish provide more \r than 3.3 billion people with 20% of their average per capita intake of \r animal proteins, reaching 50% or more in countries such as Bangladesh, \r Cambodia, The Gambia, Ghana, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka and \r several Small Island Developing States (FAO, 2020c). Between 1961 \r and 2017, the average annual apparent global food fish consumption \r increased (3.1% per year; from 9.0 kg per person in 1961 to 20.5 kg in \r 2018), exceeding the rate of increase in consumption of meat from all \r terrestrial animals combined (2.1% annually, currently around 40 kg \r per person) (FAO, 2020d). Fish are a rich source of protein and specific \r vitamins and minerals (Khalili Tilami and Sampels, 2018), and are an \r essential food source in regions in need of nutritious, affordable food \r (Thilsted et al., 2016; FAO et al., 2018; Hicks et al., 2019; Cross-Chapter \r [...]"


id: 2ba6fbfedeadfec93f372b79769ce82b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"Ocean systems are already facing significant impacts of climate \r change. At the ocean surface, temperature has on average increased \r by 0.88 [0.68-1.01] degC from 1850-1900 to 2011-2020 (Fox-Kemper \r et  al., 2021; Gulev et  al., 2021). Marine heatwaves have increased \r in frequency over the 20th century, with an approximate doubling \r since the 1980s (high confidence), and their intensity and duration \r have also increased (medium confidence) (IPCC, 2021, Box  9.2). In \r the Northeast Pacific, for example, an intense and long-lasting marine \r heatwave during 2013-2015 bridged to the strong 2015-2016 El Nino \r (Tseng et al., 2017) resulted in over 5 years of warmer-than-normal \r temperatures affecting the migration, distribution and abundance \r of several marine species, including fisheries resources (Cornwall, \r 2019; Jimenez-Quiroz et  al., 2019). The surface open ocean pH has \r declined globally over the last 40 years by 0.003-0.026 pH per decade \r [...]"


id: cf90d624d16aadb114a17a675882ca83
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"[...] (virtually certain), and a decline in the ocean interior pH has been \r observed in all ocean basins over the past two to three decades (high \r confidence) (Gulev et al., 2021). The ocean is losing dissolved oxygen \r (very likely) in the range of 0.5-3.3% between 1970 and 2010 for the \r 0-1000 m depth stratum (Bindoff et al., 2019; Canadell et al., 2021), \r salt content is being redistributed (very likely) (Liu et al., 2019a; Gulev \r et al., 2021) and vertical stratification is increasing (virtually certain) \r (HLPE, 2017a; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Ranasinghe et al., 2021). There \r is high confidence that all these new physical, chemical and biological \r conditions affect marine organisms' physiology, distribution and \r ecology, with an overall shift in biomass and species composition \r affecting ecosystem structure and function (Chapter 3). Under climate \r change, freshwater ecosystems are highly exposed to eutrophication, \r [...]"


id: 17c5a8013587243893984010c2e128ac
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"[...] species invasion and rising temperatures (Lynch et al., 2016; Hassan \r et al., 2020). Major threats to wetland fisheries include water stress, \r sedimentation, weed proliferation, sea level rise and loss of wetland \r connectivity (Naskar et al., 2018)."


id: 5470deb24b4490c20bfa766dffdadc29
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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"Changes in aquatic ecosystems directly affect humans by altering \r livelihood, cultural identity and sense of self, and seafood provision, \r quality and safety. The state of marine fishery resources has \r continued to decline, with the proportion of fish stocks at biologically \r unsustainable levels of exploitation increasing from 10% in 1974 to \r 34.2% in 2017 (FAO, 2020d). There is medium confidence that fisheries \r production declines in different world regions can be partly attributed \r to climate change, along with overfishing and other socioeconomic \r factors. It has been estimated that, from 1930 to 2010, the amount \r of fish that can be sustainably harvested from several marine fish \r populations has decreased by 4.1% globally due to ocean warming, \r with some regions (East Asian Marginal Seas, the North Sea, the Iberian \r Coast and the Celtic-Biscay Shelf), experiencing losses of 15-35% \r (Free et al., 2019). There is regional variation such as redistribution of \r [...]"


id: bb8749e10b32842b87180df50a1fd700
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"[...] fishing grounds, due to climate-induced fish species migrations (Cross\u0002Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). In Tanzania, for example, \r most small-scale fishers (75%) have reported shifting fishing grounds \r from nearshore to offshore areas during the last decade, due to \r perceived combined effects of overfishing and environmental impacts \r (Silas et al., 2020). Observed impacts in some inland aquatic systems \r indicate substantial productivity reductions (medium confidence). \r For example, sustained warming in Lake Tanganyika during the last \r ~150 years has affected the biological productivity by strengthening "


id: f17e1b9e59675eaf113ac628655884a9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"Indigenous coastal communities consume 1.5-2.8  million metric \r tonnes of fish per year (about 2% of global yearly commercial \r marine catch), and reach a per capita consumption estimated to be \r 15  times greater than that of non-Indigenous country populations \r (Cisneros-Montemayor et  al., 2016). There is high confidence that \r some Indigenous fishing communities are particularly vulnerable to \r climate change through a reduced capacity to conduct traditional \r harvests because of limited access to, or availability of, fish resources \r (Weatherdon et  al., 2016), with consequences that include dietary \r shifts with significant nutritional and health implications (Marushka \r et al., 2019), displacement and loss of cultural identity (Sullivan and \r Rosenberg, 2018) and loss of social, economic and cultural rights \r (Finkbeiner et al., 2018). Areas of high risk for Indigenous Peoples \r include the Arctic, coastal communities with a high dependency \r [...]"


id: f950045c7dd105310f9be0bbe0b1016f
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"[...] on marine and freshwater fisheries, and Small Island States and \r Territories (Finkbeiner et  al., 2018; Hanich et  al., 2018, Section \r CCP6.2.5.1)."


id: 4a926fa38368cfe0204015b24ea8c849
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"35% greater than the decrease projected for the global maximum catch \r potential (7.7+-4.4%); (Lam et al., 2016). The global revenue potential \r loss for that period ranges from USD 6 to 15 billion (depending on the \r model), but impacts may be amplified at the regional scale for fisheries\u0002dependent and low-income countries. The maximum revenue potential \r percentage decrease in the EEZ under RCP8.5 is estimated to be over \r 2.3 times larger than that of the high seas (Lam et al., 2016). Ocean \r acidification is also expected to drive large global economic impacts \r (medium confidence) (Cooley et  al., 2015; Fernandes et  al., 2017; \r Macko et al., 2017; Hansel et al., 2020), and there is high confidence\r that the integrated economic consequences of all interacting climate \r change-related factors would result in even larger losses. Changes in \r the frequency and intensity of extreme events will also alter marine \r ecosystems and productivity. Marine heatwaves can lead to severe \r [...]"


id: 8b9ae09ff5227a14a99c64642f5e6816
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"[...] and persistent impacts, from mass mortality of benthic communities \r to decline in fisheries catch (IPCC, 2021, Box 9.2). These events have \r very likely doubled in frequency between 1982 and 2016 and have also \r become more intense and longer (Smale et al., 2019; Laufkotter et al., \r 2020); for all future scenarios Earth System Models project even more \r frequent, intense and longer-lasting marine heatwaves (Eyring et al., \r 2021; IPCC, 2021, Box 9.2)."


id: 4dffb7b48cf86ab14464ac2c874d9199
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"5.8.3 Projected Impacts\r There is medium confidence that climate change will reduce global \r fisheries' productivity (Section  3.4.4.2.3), with more significant \r reductions in tropical and subtropical regions and gains in the poleward \r areas (Bindoff et al., 2019; Oremus et al., 2020). Through an ensemble \r of marine ecosystem models and Earth System Models, mean global \r animal biomass in the ocean has been estimated to decrease by 5% \r under the RCP2.6 emissions scenario and 17% under RCP8.5 by 2100, \r with an average decline of 5% for every 1degC of warming (Lotze et al., \r 2019), affecting food provision, revenue distribution, and potentially \r hindering the rebuilding of depleted fish stocks (Britten et al., 2017). The \r projected declining rates result in a 5.3-7% estimated global decrease \r in marine fish catch potential by 2050 (Cheung et al., 2019), particularly \r [...]"


id: c97ecd5fee7f494fbb63c6808399e8f8
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"[...] accentuated in tropical marine ecosystems and affecting many low\u0002income countries (Barange and Cochrane, 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; \r Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Projections indicate \r that by 2060 the number of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) with \r new transboundary stocks will increase to 46 under strong mitigation \r RCP2.6, and up to 60 EEZs under the RCP8.5 GHG emissions scenario \r (Pinsky et al., 2018). Similarly, by combining six intercompared marine \r ecosystem models, Bryndum-Buchholz et  al. (2019) projected that \r under the RCP8.5 scenario a total marine animal biomass decline \r of 15-30% would occur in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific \r and the Indian Ocean by 2100. In contrast, polar ocean basins would \r experience a 20-80% increase. In the eastern Bering Sea, simulations \r based on RCP8.5 predict declines of pollock (>70%) and cod (>35%) \r stocks by the end of the century (Holsman et al., 2020). Temperate tunas \r [...]"


id: 977ff09287c7d566b5cc66d2ac2ec1d8
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"[...] (albacore, Atlantic bluefin and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye \r tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward by the \r end of the century under RCP8.5, while skipjack and yellowfin tunas are \r projected to increase abundance in tropical areas of the eastern Pacific \r but decrease in the equatorial western Pacific (medium confidence) \r (Erauskin-Extramiana et al., 2019). In the western and central Pacific, \r redistribution of tropical tuna due to climate change is projected to \r affect license revenues from purse seine fishing and shift more fishing \r into high seas areas (Bell et al., 2018; Table 15.5). For the east Atlantic, \r observational evidence indicates that not only will tuna distribution \r change with temperature anomalies, but also fishing effort distribution \r (Rubio et al., 2020a). There is medium confidence that climate change \r will create new fishing opportunities when exploited fish stocks shift \r [...]"


id: 3ff747499313657ff8a4cb3f4156ed57
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"[...] their distribution into new fishing regions in enclosed seas, such as the \r Mediterranean and the Black Sea (Hidalgo et al., 2018; Pinsky et al., \r 2018). However, in general, where land barriers constrain the latitudinal \r shifts, the expected impacts of climate change are population declines \r and reduced productivity (high confidence) (Oxenford and Monnereau, \r 2018). Besides direct impacts on the abundance of fisheries-targeted \r species, climate-change-induced proliferation of invasive species could \r also affect fisheries' productivity (low confidence) (Mellin et al., 2016; \r Goldsmith et al., 2019).\r Shifting marine fisheries will affect national economies (high \r confidence) (Bindoff et al., 2019). It has been suggested that, without \r government subsides, fishing is already non-profitable in 54% of the \r international waters (Sala et  al., 2018). Projections are that fishing \r maximum revenue potential from landed catches will decrease further \r [...]"


id: 6b3cf25fe112696695156bd48b762d8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16163
content:
"In addition to temperature and water availability stress, climate \r change will bring new water quality challenges in freshwater systems, \r including increased dissolved organic carbon and toxic metal loads \r (high confidence) (Chen et al., 2016). Harrod et al. (2018a) found that \r the two major inland fishery producers (China and India) will face \r significant stress in the future, a large group of countries that produce \r around 60% of total yield is projected to face medium stress, and a \r small group of 17 countries has the least severe repercussions (medium \r confidence). Climate warming may enhance northward colonisation of \r water bodies of commercial freshwater species in the Arctic, where \r there are few ecological competitors (medium confidence) (Campana \r et  al., 2020) but at the same time may also accentuate the age\u0002truncation effect of harvesting, elevating the population's vulnerability \r to environmental perturbations (Smalas et  al., 2019). Detailed \r [...]"


id: af90780c14ceba906cf409c85e8d3fee
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"Adaptive capacity is strongly associated with social capital (i.e., the \r networks, shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate \r cooperation within or among groups) (high confidence) (Stoeckl \r et  al., 2017; D'agata et  al., 2020) and depends on to what extent \r stakeholders are aware of climate change and their perception of risk \r (Ankrah, 2018; Martins and Gasalla, 2018; Chen, 2020). Improving \r information flows allows for a more efficient co-management \r implementation (medium confidence) (Vasconcelos et  al., 2020). \r Utilisation of local and Indigenous knowledge has the potential \r to facilitate adaptation (Bindoff et  al., 2019), not only because it \r represents actual experiences and autonomous adaptations, but \r also because it facilitates reaching shared understanding among \r stakeholders and adoption of solutions. Challenges to hybridising local \r ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge include differences \r [...]"


id: bd61f29db4cb71710a817cd30d7c48e7
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30570
content:
"[...] in stakeholder or governance perceptions about the validity of each \r knowledge set and issues of expertise and trust (Harrison et  al., \r 2018). Engaging Indigenous Peoples and local communities as \r partners across climate research ensures this knowledge is utilised, \r enhancing the usefulness of assessments (Bindoff et al., 2019) and \r facilitating the co-construction and implementation of sustainable \r solutions (medium confidence) (Braga et al., 2020; Bulengela et al., \r 2020). Building climate resilience in the fishing sector also involves \r recognising gender and other social inequities (Call and Sellers, \r 2019), and ensuring that all stakeholders are equally involved in the \r adaptation plans, including their design and the capacity-building \r training programmes."


id: 6184521fa47f1adfecbfcdd0a6f3a95b
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content:
"One adaptation strategy in the fishing sector is developing the capacity \r to recognise and respond to new opportunities that might arise from \r climate change by establishing a policy and planning setting that \r augments the fishers' flexibility to change target species of fisheries or \r even engage in different productive activities. A key element would be \r the design and implementation of management schemes that consider \r flexible permits, sharing quotas, rethinking boundaries and reference \r points in response to system changes (Brander et  al., 2018; Cross\u0002Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Large-scale distribution and \r productivity changes of commercial fish species will demand the ability \r to implement cooperative fishing strategies (Cisneros-Montemayor \r et al., 2020; Osthagen et al., 2020), and adjust multi-lateral treaties \r and other legal instruments used for managing shared transboundary \r ecosystems (Butler et al., 2019; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this \r [...]"


id: 4eb662efc822f683eddc3383b744fd3e
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"There is high confidence that making climate change and adaptive \r capacity a mainstream consideration in global, regional, environmental \r and fisheries governance structures can improve the response capacity \r to ocean change (Gaines et al., 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Holsman \r et al., 2020; Ojea et al., 2020). For example, spatial management that \r includes strategies such as Territorial Use Rights for Fishing (TURFs), \r locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) and customary tenure is an \r approach that has climate change adaptation potential in small-scale \r fisheries but will require adjustments in governing and managing \r institutions that allow them to be more dynamic and flexible (Le Cornu \r et al., 2018). In regions where some of these measures have already \r been tested, institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers to \r successful adaptation have been encountered, such as market failures \r stemming from uncertainty around new or emerging species, or policy \r [...]"


id: c2e1f607fdcb9c7a84d881d173585d66
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"[...] barriers derived from the fact that the creation of scientific information \r needed to change regulations is likely slower than the pace of changes \r in stocks (Peck and Pinnegar, 2018)."


id: 63a216988b85602f914b8532b227c6ec
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Range contractions, shifts or extirpations are projected for terrestrial and aquatic species under warming, with greater warming leading \r to larger shifts and losses, where mitigation would therefore benefit climate refugia and reduce projected biodiversity declines (Smith \r et al., 2018; Warren et al., 2018). Marine species are moving poleward faster than terrestrial and freshwater species, despite faster \r warming on land (Pecl et al., 2017; Lenoir et al., 2019; Woolway and Maberly, 2020), leading to new or exacerbated socioeconomic \r conflicts within and between countries (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter, see Sections 13.5.2.2., 15.3.4.4., FAQ 15.3., Mendenhall \r et al., 2020). There is large variation in the magnitude and pattern of species shifts, even among similar species within a region, leading \r to changes in communities in a given region (Brown et al., 2016; Pecl et al., 2017). The number of extreme heat stress days are projected \r [...]"


id: c4ad0359f16c479969905d13baeaa09d
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content:
"[...] to increase for domesticated species like cattle (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), leading to shifts in suitable habitat for raising \r livestock in the open with associated impacts in animal productivity and the costs of adapting in Africa, Asia, and Central and South \r America (Thornton et al., 2021)."


id: b349a33fcad3af35875534095c8a6528
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"Nutritional dependency, cultural importance, livelihood, or economic reliance on shifting species will increase impacts of climate change, \r especially for small-scale fishers (marine and freshwater), farmers, women and communities highly dependent on local sources of food \r and nutrition (high confidence) (see Figures MOVING PLATE.1 and MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter, Sections 3.5.3., 8.2.1.2. and 15.3.4.4, \r McIntyre et al., 2016; Blasiak et al., 2017; Kifani et al., 2018; Bindoff et al., 2019; Atindana et al., 2020; Hasselberg et al., 2020; Farmery et al., \r 2021). Micronutrient concentrations from marine fisheries vary with species, providing higher concentrations of calcium, iron and zinc in \r tropical regions and higher concentrations of omega-3 fatty acids in polar regions (Hicks et al., 2019). While consumption of smaller species \r rich in micronutrients may provide significant benefits against deficiencies in Asia and Africa, local dietary changes in fish consumption may \r [...]"


id: 9b357841d873d55cab4b1979cdf2245f
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vector_id: 24554
content:
"[...] be linked to food preferences, fish availability due to international trade or illegal fishing and competing usage of fish (see Figure MOVING \r PLATE.3 this chapter, Hicks et al., 2019; Sumaila et al., 2020; Vianna et al., 2020). Industrial fleets are likely to switch target species \r (Belhabib et al., 2016) and inhibit small-scale fishers via illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing in EEZs (Belhabib et al., 2019; Belhabib \r et al., 2020). Extreme events can exacerbate issues, as fisheries are frequently increasingly exploited as a coping mechanism under times \r of crisis, increasing illegal fishing activities and conflict among maritime users (Pomeroy et al., 2016; Mazaris and Germond, 2018). Spatial \r [...]"


id: 17a2236c5fc679094a2b66ec06b360bd
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"[...] conflicts between artisanal and commercial foreign fishing fleets are already occurring in Ghana (Penney et al., 2017), and from climate\u0002induced tropical tuna shifts in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean Islands (see Section 15.3.4.4., (Bell et al., 2018a)). Properly managed \r small-scale fisheries can reduce poverty and improve localised food security and nutrition in low-income countries but will likely require \r restriction in the number of fishers, boat size or fishing days (Purcell and Pomeroy, 2015; Hicks et al., 2019)."


id: 39e3442cb26da2f9deb4395aeecd53a9
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vector_id: 7394
content:
"Shifting species have negative implications for the equitable distribution of food provisioning services, increasing the complexity of \r resolving sovereignty claims and climate justice (high confidence) (Allison and Bassett, 2015; Ayers et al., 2018; Baudron et al.; Ojea \r et  al., 2020; Palacios-Abrantes et  al., 2020). Higher-latitude countries generally have higher GHG emissions and will benefit from \r poleward-migrating resources from tropical poorer and lower-emitting GHG countries (Free et al., 2020). In this context, climate justice \r supporting fishing arrangements could offset socioeconomic impacts from exiting species (Mills, 2018; Lam et  al., 2020) and have \r negative implications particularly for small-scale operators (Farmery et al., 2021), However, considerations of climate justice have not \r been used by Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) allocation shares to date (Engler, 2020). Species shifting from one \r [...]"


id: f4f4b0fcbf808211235bcdd8f592187
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vector_id: 40460
content:
"[...] historical jurisdiction to another may result in an incentivised depletion of the resource by the country the stock is shifting away from; \r reforming management to allocate resource sharing of quotas and permits or stock-unrelated side payments in bilateral or multilateral \r cooperative agreements may compensate or prevent loss (Diekert and Nieminen, 2017; Free et al., 2020; Ojea et al., 2020; Osthagen et al., \r 2020; Cross-Chapter Paper Polar 6.2.)."


id: fdf418df8ba246b779d1989775ff4eac
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content:
"(see Sections 2.6.2., 14.4.2.2. and 15.3.4.4., Harrod et al., 2018c; Pinsky et al., 2018; Holsman et al., 2020; Ojea et al., 2020). Flexible and \r rapid policy reform and management adaptation will help to meet sustainability targets (Nguyen et al., 2016; Pentz and Klenk, 2020), and \r may only be available for countries with the scientific, technical and institutional capacity to implement these (high confidence) (Peck and \r Pinnegar, 2018; Figures MOVING PLATE.2 and 3 this chapter). Other adaptation options include 'follow the food' thereby migrating \r further (Belhabib et al., 2016), provision of alternative livelihoods (Thiault et al., 2019; Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7, Free \r et al., 2020), increasing ecosystem resilience by rebuilding coastal mangroves (Tanner et al., 2014; and Box 1.3) and riparian areas of \r freshwater ecosystems (Mantyka-Pringle et al., 2016) and autonomous adaptations, such as harvesting gear modifications to access new \r [...]"


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"[...] target species (Harrod et al., 2018c; Kifani et al., 2018), practice change, and early-warning systems (see Section 11.3.2.3; Pecl et al., 2019; \r Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021). Adaptive capacity will change with country, region, scale (commercial, recreational, Indigenous) of \r fishery, jurisdiction, and resource dependence (see Figure MOVING PLATE.2 this chapter for adaptation options for marine, freshwater \r and terrestrial systems). While shifting fishing fleets or herding may be an adaptation option to follow resources, limits to feasibility \r include institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers such as costs of sourcing food and operational economic viability (Belhabib \r et al., 2016); this could potentially lead to maladaptation through increased GHG emissions from fuel usage and cultural displacement \r from traditional fishing and herding lands. Overall, decreases in GHG emissions under future scenarios would reduce increases in global \r [...]"


id: 130972800e6527b0d128282d317fe2ce
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"[...] temperatures and limit species shifts, thereby lowering the likelihood of conflicts and food insecurity (high confidence)."


id: d7e14ff0438704c1ebdd9ef54cd58444
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"Marine fisheries in Ghana are dominated by artisanal fishers with overfished stocks, high nutritional fish dependency, high illegal fishing, \r low governance capacity (-0.21 2018, (World Bank, 2019)) and low climate awareness in regional fisheries management (Figure MOVING \r PLATE.3 this chapter; see Chapter 9; Nunoo et al., 2014; Belhabib et al., 2015; Belhabib et al., 2016; Kifani et al., 2018; Belhabib et al., \r 2019). Artisanal fishing plays a pivotal role in reducing poverty and food insecurity, and the impacts of climate change will risk developing \r poverty traps (see Section 8.4.5.6., (Kifani et al., 2018)). Climate change induced species redistribution is a large risk to Ghanian fisheries, \r with projections of over 20 commercial fish species exiting the region with no new species entering under RCP4.5 by 2100 (Oremus et al., \r 2020), and has already seen increases in warmer-water species with declining stocks. Adaptation options being applied are extending \r [...]"


id: 6a504d5bc317c58b24b546f9d20f0d21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"[...] fishing ranges, increasing fishing effort (and cost) to access declining fish (with government fuel incentives) (Kifani et al., 2018; Muringai \r et al., 2021), developing aquaculture for alternative livelihoods, implementing fleet monitoring to reduce illegal fishing, and developing \r a robust Fisheries Information and Management System that accounts for environmental and climate drivers (Johnson et al., 2014; FAO, \r 2016; Kassi et al., 2018). However, fisheries remain insufficiently regulated, there is a lack of a skilled workforce, and there is low access \r to credit; collectively, these factors limit options for artisanal fishers to find alternative sustainable employment (FAO, 2016)."


id: 554194725c58201006eac7d51f189da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"Freshwater fisheries provide the primary source of animal protein and essential micronutrients for an estimated 200 million people \r globally and are especially important in tropical developing nations (see Section  9.8, Lynch et  al., 2017; Funge-Smith and Bennett, \r 2019.). There is evidence that freshwater fishes have undergone climate-induced distribution shifts (Comte and Grenouillet, 2015; see \r Section 9.8.5.1.), and further shifts are projected as water temperatures rise and hydrological regimes change, with the largest effects \r predicted for equatorial, subtropical and semi-arid regions (Barbarossa et al., 2021). Currently, the effects of distribution shifts on local \r fishery catch potential, food security and/or nutrition have not been quantified for any major inland fishery, representing a key knowledge \r gap for anticipating future adaptation needs for freshwater fishing societies. However, studies on fishers' perceptions of climate-induced \r [...]"


id: 559cebed4072c1d6ccbfedf0feac0d8e
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"[...] changes in fishery catch rates have revealed that using local knowledge to adjust management practices (see Chapter 12 Central and \r South America this volume; Oviedo et al., 2016) and shifting gears, fishing grounds and target species (see Section 9.8.5.3.; Musinguzi \r et al., 2016) can be effective adaptation options."


id: 62a13c4b0c9cd81a31214e74731139d6
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"There is robust evidence of shifts that terrestrial species have shifted poleward in high latitudes, with general declines of sea-ice dependent \r as well as some extreme-polar-adapted species (high confidence) (Arctic and Siberian Tundra, see Section 2.4.2.2., Cross-Chapter Paper \r 6), with often deleterious effects on the food security and traditional knowledge systems of Indigenous societies (Horstkotte et al., 2017; \r Pecl et al., 2017; Mallory and Boyce, 2018; Forbes et al., 2020). Recent decades have seen declines in Arctic reindeer and caribou (see \r Section 2.5.1., Cross-Chapter Paper 6), and adaptation responses include utilisation of Indigenous knowledge with scientific sampling to \r maintain traditional management practices (Pecl et  al., 2017; Barber et  al.; Forbes et  al., 2020). Preserving herder livelihoods will \r necessitate novel solutions (supplementary feeding, seasonal movements), where governance, ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs \r [...]"


id: 33e5166258058440a0374b0b481796ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"[...] will be balanced at the local level (Horstkotte et al., 2017; Pecl et al., 2017; Mallory and Boyce, 2018; Forbes et al., 2020). Wild meat \r consumption plays a critical, though not well understood, role in the diets and food security of several hundred million people (medium \r evidence), for example in lower latitudes such as Central Africa and the Amazon basin (Bharucha and Pretty, 2010; Godfray et al., 2010; \r Nasi et al., 2011; Friant et al., 2020). Although illegal in many countries, wild meat hunting occurs either in places where there is no or "


id: fe414769cf4034fbd80b8a9e9db33d1b
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"Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.3 | Global documented fisheries adaptive capacity to climate change and regional seafood micronutrient \r deficiency risk. Ocean areas are delineated into FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) regions. Fisheries management adaptive capacity is a \r function of: averaged GDP World Development Indicators for 2018 (World Bank, 2020); climate awareness assessments of 30 of the FAO recognised most recent RFMOs \r with direct fisheries linkages (see Supplementary Material SM5.5); governance effectiveness index based on six aggregate indicators (voice and accountability, political \r stability and absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption) from 2018 World Governance Indicator (World \r Bank, 2019) data; and heterogeneity of countries within each FAO zone (highly heterogeneous regions are less likely to establish sustainable and efficient fisheries \r [...]"


id: 7ea1afa85388bf3589fb37b1d6555cea
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"[...] management for the entire FAO zone). Land area represents the percentage regional averaged seafood micronutrient deficiency risk of calcium, iron, zinc and vitamin A \r from 2011 data (Beal et al., 2017)."


id: 2ca783f70b114b1d10c5d8bbfdaf4e5c
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"and wild meat consumption, and following food species may result in community relocations or disruption and loss of access to historical \r places of attachment (high confidence) (Pecl et al., 2017; Lenoir et al., 2019; Meredith et al., 2019; Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021; see \r Cross-Chapter Box  MIGRATE in Chapter 7). Ecosystem-based management approaches exist for terrestrial, marine and freshwater \r systems, but have proved successful only with early engagement of local small-scale, subsistence fishers/harvesters, utilising Indigenous \r knowledge and local knowledge and needs, in addition to those of larger-scale operators (high confidence) (Huntington et al., 2015; \r McGrath and Costello, 2015; Huq and Stubbings, 2016; Huq et al., 2017; Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017; Nalau et al., 2018; Raymond\u0002Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018; Pecl et al., 2019; Planque et al., 2019). Currently, there are large regional differences in climate literacy in \r [...]"


id: 8ac9aa664ad14f625b43da6cebee273a
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content:
"[...] RFMOs (Sumby et al., 2021) which, when combined with low governance and GDP per capita, will limit adaptation capacity and increase \r vulnerabilities, particularly for tropical and subtropical regions already at increased risk due to poleward species migrations (see \r Figure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter). Trade will be an alternative to compensate for the moving plate but has specific risks that can \r amplify inequities and maladaptation (Asche et al., 2015; Vianna et al., 2020)."


id: 2221c5a55e68c856f7626828ed155a99
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"have been increasing in both incidence and longevity over the past \r century (Frolicher and Laufkotter, 2018; Oliver et  al., 2018; Bricknell \r et al., 2021), with productivity consequences for marine aquaculture \r (mariculture), carbon sequestration and local species extinctions (high \r confidence) (Weatherdon et al., 2016; Smale et al., 2019). Temperature \r increases related to El Nino climatic oscillations have caused mass fish \r mortalities either through warming waters (e.g., Pacific threadfin in \r Hawaii (McCoy et  al., 2017)) or associated HABs (e.g., 12% loss of \r Atlantic salmon as well as other fish and shellfish in Chile in 2016, \r with estimated USD 800 million in losses (high confidence) (Clement \r et al., 2016; Apablaza et al., 2017; Leon-Munoz et al., 2018; Trainer \r et al., 2020)). Increases in sea lice parasite infestations on salmon are \r related to higher salinity and warmer waters (medium confidence) \r [...]"


id: e015080e8eb32cacd7731a7ff31b19c1
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"[...] (Groner et al., 2016; Soto et al., 2019). Ocean acidification is having \r negative impacts on the sustainability of mariculture production (high \r confidence) (Bindoff et al., 2019), with observed impacts on shellfish \r causing significant production and economic losses for regions, \r estimated at losses of nearly USD 110 million by 2015 in the Pacific \r Northwest (Barton et al., 2015; Ekstrom et al., 2015; Waldbusser et al., \r 2015; Zhang et al., 2017b; Doney et al., 2020). Ocean oxygen levels are \r declining due to climate change (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, \r 2021), and decreased oxygen (hypoxia) has negative impacts on fish \r physiology (Cadiz et al., 2018; Hvas and Oppedal, 2019; Martos-Sitcha \r et al., 2019; Perera et al., 2021), fish growth, behaviour and sensitivity \r to concurrent stressors (high confidence) (Stehfest et al., 2017; Abdel\u0002Tawwab et al., 2019)."


id: 43ede3bea0e2f12dd33ec529cc1f18d2
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"Global aquaculture provides more fish for human consumption \r than wild capture fisheries, with projected provisioning of 60% by \r 2030 (FAO, 2018c). Aquaculture can contribute to SDGs by reducing \r poverty and food insecurity, filling increasing aquatic food demand \r shortages from declining capture fisheries production (medium \r confidence) (Figure  5.13a and c, World Bank, 2013; Bene et  al., \r 2016; Hambrey, 2017; Beveridge et  al., 2018b; Kalikoski et  al., \r 2018; Belton et  al., 2020) and improving social inequities for poor \r rural communities (Bene et al., 2016; FAO, 2018c; Vannuccini et al., \r 2018; Pongthanapanic et  al., 2019). Global aquaculture production \r reached 82  million tonnes (Mt) of food fish, crustaceans, molluscs \r and other aquatic animals from inland (51 Mt) and marine (31 Mt) \r systems, and 32 Mt of aquatic plants in 2018 (FAO, 2020d). China, \r India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Egypt, Norway and Chile are \r [...]"


id: f28c61bcaab01e6db8e0d8e7023bc730
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"[...] major production regions (FAO, 2020d). The range of species, farming \r methods and environments makes aquaculture the most diverse, \r long-standing farming practice in the world, with an estimated global \r sectoral value of USD 250 billion in 2018 (Figure 5.13b and 5.14d, \r Bell et  al., 2019; Harland, 2019; FAO, 2020d; Houston et  al., 2020; \r Metian et al., 2020), but it is dominated by 20 finfish, 9 mollusc and 6 \r crustacean species (FAO, 2020). Inland aquaculture in freshwater and \r coastal ponds accounts for 85-90% of farmed production (Beveridge \r et al., 2018b; Naylor et al., 2021). Globally, 20.5 million people are \r engaged in aquaculture (FAO, 2020d), where marine finfish farming is \r primarily conducted by high-income countries and inland production \r is dominated by small-scale producers in lower-middle-income \r countries (Vannuccini et al., 2018)."


id: 280e0748154c998b9dc4ef01bb3d0df4
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"There are regional differences in women's roles, responsibilities \r and involvement in adaptation strategies in the aquaculture sector. \r Women comprise 14% of the 2018 global aquaculture workforce \r of 20.5 million (FAO, 2020c), representing up to 42% of the salmon \r workforce in Chile (Chavez et al., 2019), predominantly in processing \r roles (Gopal et  al., 2020). In the majority of lower-middle-income \r countries, seaweed culture is dominated by women in family-owned \r businesses as in Zanzibar and the Philippines (Brugere et  al., 2020; \r Ramirez et  al., 2020), where women are not always paid directly \r but contribute to family incomes (high confidence) (Msuya and \r Hurtado, 2017; Brugere et  al., 2020; Ramirez et  al., 2020). In India, \r women collect stocking juveniles and assist in pond construction; in \r Bangladesh, women do the same tasks as men; and in Ghana, women \r undertake post-harvest fishing activities (Lauria et al., 2018). Women \r [...]"


id: d288eeaedd872da083a6269d468c1962
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"[...] employed in aquaculture cooperatives gained adaptive capacity, which \r reduced gender inequities (medium confidence) (Farquhar et al., 2018; \r Gonzal et al., 2019), but lack of financial access for women can create \r gender inequity at larger commercial scales (Gurung et al., 2016; Call \r and Sellers, 2019). Women in aquaculture experience competing roles \r between employment, childcare and home duties (high confidence) \r (Morgan et al., 2015; Lauria et al., 2018; Chavez et al., 2019; see Cross\u0002Chapter Box  GENDER in Chapter 18) and differ from men in terms \r of perceptions of environmental risk, climate change and adaptation \r behaviour, with limited contributions to decision making (medium \r confidence) (Barange and Cochrane, 2018). Therefore, effective \r climate aquaculture adaptation options need to address gender \r inequity, such as suitable technology designs that fit with social \r norms and access to credit to facilitate independent uptake (medium \r [...]"


id: 2cfe3d05da28c5ea85c3757e627f0307
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"[...] evidence, high agreement) (Morgan et al., 2015; Oppenheimer et al., \r 2019). Generalised best practices for gender-sensitive approaches to \r adaptation are relevant for aquaculture (UNFCCC, 2013)."


id: 4d14f02fce114f9a492d039bab4d5b54
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"In the marine sector, vulnerability models (Brugere and De Young, \r 2015; Handisyde et  al., 2017) have been adapted and applied to \r semi-quantitative spatial risk assessments for Chilean Atlantic \r salmon, where analysis of exposure threat coupled with mortality \r and temperature farm data could enhance salmon production (Soto \r et al., 2019). Vulnerability assessments in Korea (RCP8.5 temperature \r increase of 4-5degC by 2100) (Kim et al., 2019a) and the USA (ocean \r acidification, Barton et al., 2015; Ekstrom et al., 2015) found major \r exposure-related vulnerabilities for seaweeds and shellfish, with \r reduced vulnerabilities under higher production control and adaptive \r capacity. Global bivalve vulnerability assessments (RCP8.5 by 2100) \r show high vulnerabilities for major producing countries related to \r cyclones (China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Viet Nam and North \r Korea), regional risk of high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity \r [...]"


id: 9c47753d3906c6cbac1818a78f26597e
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"[...] (Chile, Peru, Spain, Italy), with few major producers (France, the \r Netherlands and USA) anticipated to remain moderately vulnerable \r by 2100 (Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020)."


id: ac43e7d2a3ad03833010bb73e0f9077b
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content:
"2018; Froehlich et al., 2018a; Catalan et al., 2019; Thiault et al., 2019; \r Falconer et  al., 2020a). Sensitivities for marine finfish may be high \r even under +1.5-2.0degC (medium confidence) (Gattuso et al., 2018), \r resulting in finfish farms moving northward to maintain productivity \r (e.g., Arctic (Troell et al., 2017)). Downscaled projections of regionally \r specific tolerances (Klinger et al., 2017) may be particularly useful for \r management and planning; a 0.5degC rise is predicted for Chilean salmon \r aquaculture (Soto et  al., 2019), and potential negative impacts on \r productivity in Norway by 2029 have been projected (limited evidence) \r (Falconer et al., 2020a). Marine heatwaves are predicted to increase in \r occurrence, intensity and persistence under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 by 2100 \r (Oliver et al., 2019; Bricknell et al., 2021), with risk partly mitigated \r by husbandry (medium confidence) (McCoy et  al., 2017). Generally, \r [...]"


id: e2dac4bc0055599cf38fa5c98c7d6bef
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"[...] negative impacts are predicted for marine species, with residual risk \r increasing with level of exposure (Sara et  al., 2018; Smale et  al., "


id: 78acbfc200d8df15e546db3cab5f9238
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content:
"clarity), habitat and supporting (artificial habitat) and cultural (livelihoods \r and tourism) services (Gentry et  al., 2020), which vary with species, \r location and husbandry (Alleway et al., 2019). Projected thermal increases \r of 1.5degC will reduce ecosystem services, further reduced under 2degC \r warming, with associated increases in acidification, hypoxia, dead zones, \r flooding and water restrictions (medium confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg \r et al., 2018). Sudden production losses from extreme climate events can \r exacerbate food security challenges across production sectors, including \r aquaculture, increasing global hunger (high confidence) (Cottrell et al., \r 2019; Food Security Information Network, 2020). While aquaculture \r provides positive influences such as food security and livelihoods, there \r are negative concerns over environmental impacts (including high \r nutrient loads from sites) and socioeconomic conflicts (Alleway et al., \r [...]"


id: 41c3026a1362e2c61285fc93b4b7d387
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content:
"[...] 2019; Soto et  al., 2019), and adoption of ecosystem approaches is \r dependent on particular user groups and regions (Gentry et al., 2017; \r Brugere et al., 2019; Gentry et al., 2020). In coastal Bangladesh, projected \r saline inundation to wetland ecosystem services will result in ecosystem \r services losses of raw materials and food provisioning, ranging from \r USD 0 to 20.0 million under RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 scenarios (Mehvar et al., \r 2019). Mangrove deforestation for shrimp farming in Asia negatively \r impacts ecosystem services and reduces climate resilience (medium \r confidence) (Mehvar et al., 2019; Nguyen and Parnell, 2019; Reid et al., \r 2019; Custodio et al., 2020), while mangrove reforestation efforts may \r have some effectiveness in re-creating important nursery grounds for \r aquatic species (low confidence) (Gentry et al., 2017; Chiayarak et al., \r 2019; Hai et al., 2020). Families are highly vulnerable to climate change \r [...]"


id: e6aa7ae6b927b05cc9ab40da2ec276b
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content:
"[...] where nutritional needs are being met by self-production, such as in \r Mozambique, Namibia (Villasante et al., 2015), Zambia (Kaminski et al., \r 2018) and Bangladesh (high confidence) (Pant et  al., 2014). Climate \r change will therefore affect multiple ecosystem services where ultimately \r decisions on balance or trade-offs will vary with regional perceptions of \r service value (high confidence)."


id: cc994b0a96810ea5571d7f5350be44bd
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content:
"Globally, there is overall high confidence that suitable shellfish \r aquaculture habitat will decline by 2100 under projected warming, \r ocean acidification and primary productivity changes, with \r significant negative impacts for some regions and species before \r 2100 (Table 5.9, Froehlich et al., 2018a; Ghezzo et al., 2018). Shellfish \r growth will increase with warming waters until tolerances are \r reached, such as through extreme El Nino events (high confidence) \r (Beveridge et al., 2018b; Dabbadie et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2018b; Liu \r et al., 2020). Rising temperatures and ocean acidification will result \r in losses of primary productivity and farmed species from tropical and \r subtropical regions, and gains in higher latitudes (high confidence) \r (Froehlich et  al., 2018a; Aveytua-Alcazar et  al., 2020; Chapman \r et al., 2020; Des et al., 2020; Oyinlola et al., 2020), but net marine \r production gains could be achieved under strong mitigation (Thiault \r [...]"


id: e03c2b21a1e29db81a6383f27ad3b661
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content:
"[...] et al., 2019). Shellfish Vibrio infections will increase with warming \r waters and extreme events, increasing shellfish mortalities (medium \r confidence) (Green et al., 2019; Montanchez et al., 2019), with ocean \r acidification impairing immune responses (limited evidence) (Cao \r et al., 2018b). Bivalve larvae are known to be highly vulnerable to \r ocean acidification (high confidence) (see Section 3.3, Bindoff et al., \r 2019), with projected regional and species-specific levels of impact \r (high confidence) (Ekstrom et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2017b; Mangi \r et  al., 2018) (Greenhill et  al., 2020). Ocean acidification is also \r projected to weaken shells, affecting productivity and processing \r (high confidence) (Martinez et al., 2018; Cummings et al., 2019) and \r dependent livelihoods (Doney et al., 2020)."


id: 8855c33b22b242150be0f9bf83efc469
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"2018). Many adaptations are specific to regions, countries or sectors, \r implemented on a regional to national scale (FAO, 2018c; Galappaththi \r et al., 2020b). Adaptation likelihood (potential), effectiveness and risk \r of maladaptation was assessed per major FAO production region for \r inland, brackish and marine aquaculture (Figure  5.16) production \r systems. Potential adaptation measures to reduce production loss can \r be built upon existing adaptation planning and guidelines, to reduce \r the risk of maladaptation including feedback loops (e.g., FAO, 2015; \r Bueno and Soto, 2017; Dabbadie et  al., 2018; FAO, 2018c; Poulain \r et al., 2018; Brugere et al., 2019; Pham et al., 2021; Soto et al., 2021). \r Large climate change adaptation strategies for the aquaculture sector \r exist, such as in the USA (Link et al., 2015), Australia (Hobday et al., \r 2017) and South Africa (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2016). \r [...]"


id: 7940fbff96c3c7a5feeb8cf0eb0af9f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18527
content:
"[...] Lower-income countries often lack financial, technical or institutional \r capacity for adaptation planning (Galappaththi et  al., 2020b), but \r examples include Bangladesh and Myanmar (FAO, 2018c), with \r programmes offering adaptation funding (Dabbadie et  al., 2018). \r Early participation of stakeholders in adaptive planning has promoted \r action and ownership of results (high confidence), such as in India \r and the USA (Link et al., 2015; FAO, 2018c; Soto et al., 2018) Early \r outreach, education and knowledge gap assessments raise awareness, \r where utilisation of local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge \r and scientific involvement support informed adaptive planning and \r uptake for all stakeholders (high confidence) (Cooley et al., 2016; FAO, \r 2018c; Rybraten et al., 2018; Soto et al., 2018; McDonald et al., 2019; \r Galappaththi et al., 2020b), as perceptions of climate risk and capacity \r will vary (Tiller and Richards, 2018). Supporting the active involvement \r [...]"


id: d070f3e699ad0dcb6cd422595ec69f6e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"[...] of women helps address gender inequity and perceived risk, \r particularly for smallholder farmers (high confidence) (Morgan et al., \r 2015; Barange and Cochrane, 2018; FAO, 2018c; Avila-Forcada et al., \r 2020). However, regional and national political influences, financial \r and technical capacity, governance planning and policy development \r will ultimately support or hinder adaptation for aquaculture (high \r confidence) (Cooley et  al., 2016; FAO, 2018c; Galappaththi et  al., \r 2020b; Greenhill et al., 2020)."


id: a4999c054b4cce93800f588309ef07ca
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26172
content:
"and success of integrated adaptation approaches to climate change \r (Ahmed et al., 2019; Tran et al., 2020; Kais and Islam, 2021).\r Selective breeding can promote climate resilience (medium \r confidence) (Klinger et al., 2017; Fitzer et al., 2019), and operations \r have already intentionally, or unintentionally, selected for production \r traits for changing conditions (de Melo et al., 2016; Tan and Zheng, \r 2020). Exposure of broodstock to future climate conditions may or \r may not confer advantages to offspring (moderate evidence, low \r agreement) (Parker et al., 2015; Griffith and Gobler, 2017; Thomsen \r et al., 2017; Durland et al., 2019). Traditional pedigree developments \r require extensive phenotypic data, but genomic selections can rapidly \r select for robust climate-associated traits (Sae-Lim et  al., 2017; \r Gutierrez et al., 2018; Zenger et al., 2018; Houston et al., 2020; Tan and \r Zheng, 2020). Genomic resources are available for salmon, rainbow \r [...]"


id: c983954a283bd8744d3b137db60f4a22
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] trout, coho, carp, tilapia, seabass, bream, turbot, flounder, catfish, \r yellow drum, scallops, oysters and shrimp, but have been developed \r for disease and growth selections rather than climate resistance \r (Degremont et  al., 2015a; Degremont et  al., 2015b; Abdelrahman \r et al., 2017; Gjedrem and Rye, 2018; Gutierrez et al., 2018; Guo et al., \r 2018; Liu et al., 2018a; FAO, 2019d; Houston et al., 2020), although \r bivalve selections for ocean acidification and warming resiliency are \r underway (Tan and Zheng, 2020). Targeted genome editing could \r modify phenotypes of major aquaculture species (Li et  al., 2014a; \r Elaswad et al., 2018; Yu et al., 2019; Houston et al., 2020), but uptake \r is dependent upon national regulatory and public approvals. Local \r adaptations within species with higher climate resiliencies may assist \r in selections (Thomsen et al., 2017; Falkenberg et al., 2019; Scanes \r et al., 2020; Toomey et al., 2020), but highlight the need to consider \r [...]"


id: 2ab7bf2ff498e8374ee76405c93f51c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] specific farming environments for selective processes (Houston et al., \r 2020). Projections of climate on aquaculture production traits are not \r well understood (Lhorente et  al., 2019); therefore, genetic diversity \r needs to be maintained to ensure population fitness (high confidence) \r (Bitter et al., 2019; Lhorente et al., 2019; Visch et al., 2019; Houston \r et al., 2020; Mantri et al., 2020)."


id: fb571eb6c627bebd8a560f5c2f436b90
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Adaptation options at the operational level include species selections, \r such as cultivation of brackish species (shrimp, crabs) during dry seasons, \r and rice-finfish in wetter seasons in Thailand (Chiayarak et al., 2019), \r use of salt-tolerant plants in Viet Nam (Nhung et al., 2019; Paik et al., \r 2020), converting inundated rice paddies into aquaculture, rotating \r shrimp, and rice culture (high confidence) (Chiayarak et  al., 2019). \r Species diversification through co-culture, integrated aquaculture-\r agriculture (e.g., rice-fish) or integrated multi-trophic culture (e.g., \r shrimp-tilapia-seaweed or finfish-bivalve-seaweed) may maintain \r farm long-term performance and viability by: creating new aquaculture \r opportunities; promoting societal and environmental stability; reducing \r GHG emissions through reduced feed usage and waste; and carbon \r sequestration (medium confidence) (see Section  5.10, Ahmed et  al., \r [...]"


id: 474fd2e518a57c3928f5df6a4d9fde35
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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"[...] 2017; Bunting et al., 2017; Gasco et al., 2018, Soto et al., 2018; Ahmed \r et al., 2019; Dubois et al., 2019; FAO, 2019c; Li et al., 2019; Freed et al., \r 2020; Galappaththi et al., 2020b; Prasko et al., 2020; Tran et al., 2020). \r In practice, most aquaculture operations concentrate on single-species \r systems (Metian et al., 2020), and barriers such as land availability, \r freshwater resources and lack of credit access may limit the uptake "


id: 78c19ae13e1046b6683fa7d36ad2ff8a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18435
content:
"Feed formulations and improved feed conversion can reduce climate\u0002associated stress for freshwater species, significantly reducing waste \r and increase sustainability (medium confidence) (FAO, 2018c; Gasco \r et al., 2018; Chen and Villoria, 2019). Projected decreases in fish meal \r and global targets of limiting warming to under 2degC may increase \r the ratio of plant-based diets but reduce fish nutritional content \r (see Sections  5.10 and 5.13, Hasan and Soto, 2017; Johnson et  al., \r 2020). Companies provide insurance in major production areas, but \r aquaculture is considered high risk with large levels of small claims \r (Secretan et al., 2007). Insurance covers natural disasters and disease, \r helping to reduce and cope with climate-induced risk, enabling faster \r livelihood recoveries and preventing poverty (high agreement, limited \r evidence) (Xinhua et al., 2017; Kalikoski et al., 2018; Soto et al., 2018). \r For example, small-scale shrimp farmers were willing to pay higher \r [...]"


id: a9b5eae534ada7fa87d61f0193d40c3d
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content:
"[...] premiums to manage risk, after participation in government pilot \r insurance schemes, ensuring greater pay-outs if a mortality event \r occurred (Nyguyen and Pongthanapanic, 2016; Pongthanapanic et al., \r 2019). Technological innovations are more widely implemented in \r larger operations, with Internet access promoting adoption at the \r farm site (Joffre et  al., 2017; Salazar et  al., 2018). Improved farm \r management is a key opportunity (high confidence) to reduce climate \r risks on aquaculture, where Best Management Practices can increase \r resiliency (Soto et  al., 2018) and lower additional risk from non\u0002climatic stressors (Gattuso et al., 2018; Smith and Bernard, 2020), and \r decision-tree frameworks can provide adaptation choices when events \r occur (Nguyen et al., 2016)."


id: f6e8f8d43016e002e8e087c171ce2b7c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Indigenous mariculture practices, such as intertidal clam gardens, \r have been occurring for thousands of years, providing knowledge of \r traditional practices still applicable to mariculture (Deur et al., 2015; \r Jackley et  al., 2016; Poulain et  al., 2018; Bell et  al., 2019; Toniello \r et  al., 2019). Indigenous groups differ in opinions on aquaculture \r acceptability, implications for coastal management and territorial rights \r (high confidence) (Young et al., 2019). Such perceptions may determine \r culturally appropriate types and benefits of aquaculture (employment, \r food diversification, income, building autonomy and skillsets), such as \r in Australia (Petheram et  al., 2013) and Canada (Young and Liston, \r 2010). Marginalised people, like small-scale aquaculture farmers in \r lower-income and lower-middle-income countries, are often overlooked \r and are not represented at a governance level (Barange et al., 2014; \r [...]"


id: 99654b4fb9c0ee402f7c1f19ec6b548
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24212
content:
"[...] Kalikoski et  al., 2018). Therefore policy, economic, knowledge and \r other support must ensure representation with traditional and other \r stakeholder ecological knowledge at national, regional and local levels \r to facilitate climate change adaptation and safeguard human rights for \r poor and vulnerable groups (high confidence) (Kalikoski et al., 2018; \r Poulain et al., 2018)."


id: a1814b76a952cfd601eba08e42825d7a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The food and livelihoods of many rural people depend on combinations \r of crops, livestock, forestry and fisheries, and still information on these \r mixed systems is scarce. Rural households in low- and middle-income \r countries earn almost 70% of their income through mixed production \r systems (Angelsen et al., 2014). These systems produce about half of \r the world's cereals, most of the fruits, vegetables, pulses, roots and \r tubers, and most of the staple crops and livestock products consumed \r by poor people in lower-income countries (Herrero et al., 2017). They \r can help in adapting to climatic risks and reducing GHG emissions \r by improving nutrient flows and improving the recycling of nutrients \r within the production system and by increasing food production and \r diet quality per unit of land and diversifying income sources (Smith \r et  al., 2019c). Indigenous groups often practice mixed production, \r integrating crops, animals, fisheries, forestry and agroforestry through \r [...]"


id: 237bd6dfe3788d0687d9f89196ee8ad5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Globally, monitoring is increasing to fill scientific uncertainties \r (Goldsmith et  al., 2019) but is not often at spatial scales which \r facilitate farm or regional adaptation management (Whitney et al., \r 2020) or data complexities prevent direct uptake by operators, \r resource managers and policymakers (medium confidence) (Soto \r et al., 2018; Gallo et al., 2019). Specialised industry portals (Pacific \r shellfish) and government-established monitoring programmes \r (Chilean salmon) and other observational networks (e.g., Global \r Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON)) can provide \r real-time monitoring and early-warning event alerts and facilitate \r aquaculture decision making (medium confidence) (Cross et al., 2019; \r Farcy et al., 2019; Soto et al., 2019; Tilbrook et al., 2019; Bresnahan \r et  al., 2020; Peck et  al., 2020). Seasonal forecasting, downscaled \r models and early-warning systems provide valuable regional or \r [...]"


id: e55735c8f54eed3e8d8bef91e1ca904
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"[...] farm site risk information (Hobday et al., 2018; Galappaththi et al., \r 2020b; Whitney et al., 2020), but monitoring will need to be useful \r for farmers, involve farmers, and be accurate, timely, cost-effective, \r reviewed and maintained in order to ensure uptake (high confidence) "


id: 3d68f9454c328d5e8e388d852d839c92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"Households may have a mix of aquatic and land-based food \r production, contributing to food security and nutrition and income \r generation (Freed et al., 2020; see also discussion of aquaponics and \r hydroponics in Section  5.10.4.3. and combined rice-aquatic species \r production in Section  5.9.4). Failures in agricultural outputs due to \r climate-associated factors may result in diversification to fisheries \r as a way of alleviating food production shortfalls; for example, \r fisheries landings may dramatically increase after agricultural failures \r following hurricanes, which can subsequently create overfishing \r collapses (Cottrell et al., 2019). Where climatic impact drivers affect \r multiple sectors, adaptation may become more difficult because of the \r interacting challenges (Cottrell et al., 2019). One study of 12 countries \r with high food insecurity levels found that fish-reliant households \r utilised as much land as those not reliant on fish (Fisher et al., 2017). \r [...]"


id: 8ced2ae79138dd0e3e0a22493fd8b747
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21978
content:
"[...] To meet food security requirements, most of these households needed \r to both farm and fish, illustrating the interdependence of aquatic-\r terrestrial food systems."


id: f96a511fda86628f73049e65d8f62597
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content:
"on farm output; this applied to commercial and subsistence sectors \r (Tibesigwa et al., 2017). Other studies suggest increased risk in mixed \r systems in semi-arid conditions. In northern Burkina Faso, Rigolot (2017) \r examined different crop fertilisation and animal supplementation \r levels under RCP8.5 to the 2050s. They found that, although aggregate \r profits could be increased via moderate levels of inputs, the use of \r external inputs may increase risk because of marginal costs exceeding \r marginal benefits in lower rainfall years. In the Western Australian \r wheat belt, Thamo (2017) assessed climate-change-induced shifts in \r farm profitability to the 2050s. For most options, the adverse effects \r on profitability were greater than the advantageous effects, profit \r margins being much more sensitive to climate change than production \r levels. However, in the same system, Ghahramani (2018) evaluated \r adaptation options to 2030 and found that a shift to a greater reliance \r [...]"


id: 68ba8d6d44874f9fe881e2d066fbc5a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15693
content:
"As in other production systems, Indigenous groups, gender, race and \r other social categories can result in heightened vulnerability to climate \r change in mixed production systems owing to historical and current \r marginalisation and discrimination (high confidence) (Parraguez\u0002Vergara et  al., 2016; Baptiste and Devonish, 2019; Moulton and \r Machado, 2019; Popke and Rhiney, 2019; Fagundes et al., 2020). A study \r of the Mapuche Indigenous group in Chile found that marginalisation \r and discrimination worsened their vulnerability and observed impacts \r of climate change because they had less access to services and lower \r incomes and were not as high a priority as other groups (Parraguez\u0002Vergara et  al., 2016). Among fisherfolk on Lake Wamala, Uganda, \r Musinguzi (2018) found evidence of considerable diversification to crop \r and livestock production as a means of increasing households' food \r security and income, but women had greater workloads and less control \r [...]"


id: ae3da64da463ad33c20b5ff5b7a1eb5
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27891
content:
"[...] over new income sources than men. Ngigi (2017) evaluated adaptation \r actions within households in rural Kenya and found that women tended \r to adopt adaptation strategies related to crops, and men to livestock \r and agroforestry activities. Chingala (2017) found substantial gender\u0002and age-related differences in control of access to animal feed, animal \r health and water resources in beef producers in mixed crop-livestock \r systems in Malawi. In a review of agriculture-aquaculture systems in \r coastal Bangladesh, Hossain et al. (2018) showed that existing policies \r and adaptation mechanisms are not adequately addressing gender \r power imbalances, and women continue to be marginalised, leading \r to increasing feminisation of food insecurity. Such studies highlight the \r need to consider gender and other social inequities when examining \r adaptation in mixed production systems, particularly in situations in \r which men and women have different levels of control over productive \r [...]"


id: 12f7e26213e4b0407edd8b64ed2f2846
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 543
content:
"While shade trees can ameliorate increasing stand temperatures that \r will significantly impact arabica coffee (Ovalle-Rivera et  al., 2015; \r Schroth et al., 2015), the opposite can also be true. Comparing shade \r and full-sun coffee systems in Ghana, Abdulai (2018) concluded \r that the leguminous tree species providing shade and additional \r nitrogen led to soil water competition with the coffee trees during \r severe drought, resulting in enhanced coffee mortality. On the other \r hand, experimentally induced drought in a soybean-intercropping \r agroforestry system in eastern Canada led to crop losses in the \r monocropping system only, whereas N-fixation declined in both \r systems (Nasielski et  al., 2015). Thus, balancing the synergies and \r trade-offs of multiple component systems is necessary based on local \r context. While species diversification can enhance resilience to climate \r shocks, lack of water can constrain the implementation of agroforestry \r [...]"


id: d49ff17423369d6c8498e55605bb398d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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vector_id: 34726
content:
"The ways in which crop and livestock farmers in the Sahel have responded to climatic variability have been studied widely (Sissoko, 2011; \r Gonzalez et al., 2012; Jalloh et al., 2013; Gautier et al., 2016; Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Zougmore et al., 2016; Segnon, 2019). Local \r communities have developed an extensive Indigenous ecological knowledge system, enabling them to make use of ecosystem services to \r support their livelihoods and to survive environmental change (Nyong et al., 2007; Mertz et al., 2009; Lahmar et al., 2012; Segnon et al., \r 2015). These knowledge systems have been crucial in people's resilience to and recovery from major environmental change, such as the \r severe drought period experienced in the region in the 1970s and 1980s (Nyong et al., 2007; Lahmar et al., 2012; Segnon et al., 2015; \r Gautier et al., 2016; Zoure et al., 2019). As climate change became evident and a primary concern on the global agenda, interest in local \r [...]"


id: 8a3214e6ae735ef2c4699837fc0c6346
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"[...] people's knowledge and understanding of climate change has also increased (Mertz et al., 2009; Tambo and Abdoulaye, 2013; Traore \r et al., 2015; Kosmowski et al., 2016; Sanogo et al., 2017; Segnon, 2019)."


id: 8a13062be0811f2a45694985743aeabc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21465
content:
"Crop and livestock farmers' knowledge and perceptions of increases in temperature and temperature-related stressors (heatwaves, \r number of extreme hot or cold days) are consistent with the observed meteorological data (Mertz et al., 2009; Mertz, 2012; Tambo and \r Abdoulaye, 2013; Traore et al., 2015; Sanogo et al., 2017; Segnon, 2019). Their perceptions of changes in rainfall amounts have not \r always been consistent with the observational record (Mertz, 2012; Segnon, 2019). Nevertheless, their perception of increases in dry spell \r occurrence during the rainy season and changes in rainfall pattern (onset, cessation, intensity and distribution) were consistent with the \r recent observations (Barbier et al., 2009; Ouedraogo et al., 2010; Tambo and Abdoulaye, 2013; Salack et al., 2015; Traore et al., 2015; \r Kosmowski et al., 2016; Salack et al., 2016; Segnon, 2019). Rainfall patterns within the season, rather than the total amounts of rainfall, \r [...]"


id: c3a878e854c4350416d7586cdfa35f7f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"often led to their demise (McNeely and Schroth, 2006; Plieninger and \r Schaar, 2008; Garcia-Martinez et  al., 2016; Krcmarova and Jelecek, \r 2016; Coq-Huelva et al., 2017; Paudel et al., 2017; Doddabasawa et al., \r 2018; Maezumi et al., 2018; Lincoln, 2020). The wide range of options \r to associate different trees with crops, livestock and aquaculture \r allows agroforestry to be practiced in most regions, including those \r with precipitation regimes ranging from semi-arid to humid. While \r most agroforestry systems occur in smallholder settings, there are \r examples of successful industrial-scale mechanised agroforestry \r systems (Feliciano et al., 2018; Lovell et al., 2018). Agroforestry delivers \r medium to large benefits to all five land challenges described in the \r SRCCL--climate change mitigation, adaptation, desertification, land \r degradation and food security--and is considered to have broad \r adaptation and moderate mitigation potential compared with other \r [...]"


id: c99c20adb440098f305d7b1b38bed12d
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32795
content:
"[...] land challenges (Smith et  al., 2019c). Agroforestry is also able to \r deliver multiple biophysical and socioeconomic benefits (Table 5.12)."


id: f17c4fbb1435bcd5ecbad33264abf723
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39869
content:
"The adoption and maintenance of agroforestry practices require \r appropriate incentives or the removal of barriers (high confidence). \r Agroforestry adoption has been limited to date in both higher-income \r and lower-income countries. Several constraints need to be carefully \r addressed for successful scaling-up of agroforestry systems, including \r costs of establishment, limited short-term benefits, lack of reliable \r financial support to incentivise longer-term returns on investments, land \r tenure, knowledge of and experience with trees and the management of \r multiple component systems, and inadequate market access, (Coulibaly \r et al., 2017; Iiyama et al., 2017; Jacobi et al., 2017; Kongsager, 2017; \r Hernandez-Morcillo et  al., 2018; Iiyama et  al., 2018; Lincoln, 2019). \r Kongsager (2017) and Roupsard et al. (2020) also highlight the need \r for vertical integration of measures from local to national scales to \r [...]"


id: ae7d1d1b850cdd6e8bb26dce773d18de
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] successfully address local barriers to adoption. Although there are few \r studies evaluating the long-term performance of agroforestry systems \r (Coe et al., 2014; Meijer et al., 2015; Brockington et al., 2016; Kongsager, \r 2017; Toth et al., 2017), the available results suggest that successful \r adoption of agroforestry practices depends strongly on the local "


id: 87e3f6917c2aea55404b69b5ab103edf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21063
content:
"5.10.4.3 Links between crops and aquaponics-hydroponics as \r adaptation\r Hydroponic systems produce plants in a soilless environment requiring \r mineral fertilizers to meet plant nutritional needs, whereas aquaponics \r combines an aquaculture production system with hydroponics, where \r fish waste provides nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium for plant \r growth and nitrifying and mineralising bacteria act as filters (Goddek \r et al., 2015; Perez-Urrestarazu et al., 2019; Ghamkhar et al., 2020). The \r relative environmental impact of hydroponic systems is lower com\u0002pared with conventional systems owing to the significant reductions \r in land use and fertilizer usage (high confidence) (Goddek et al., 2015; \r Datta et al., 2018; Pantanella, 2018; Suhl et al., 2018; El-Essawy et al., \r 2019; Jaeger et al., 2019; Monsees et al., 2019; Mupambwa et al., 2019; \r Perez-Urrestarazu et al., 2019; Ghamkhar et al., 2020). While studies \r [...]"


id: b149015eb17435daae602790d919addc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28420
content:
"[...] indicate that aquaponics and hydroponics have higher yields and a \r lower environmental footprint than conventional agriculture (medium \r confidence), aquaculture and heated greenhouse production (Panta\u0002nella, 2018; Romeo et al., 2018), aquaponic production may need to \r be coupled or decoupled or have double-recirculation systems to meet \r the different requirements of farmed fish and crop species (Pantanella, \r 2018; Suhl et al., 2018; Mupambwa et al., 2019). Aquaponics and hy\u0002droponics are a promising adaptation option for urban agriculture, with \r benefits including a protected growing environment from climate ex\u0002tremes, reduced GHG emissions related to food transportation, reduced \r food waste, rainwater harvesting and use of food waste (medium agree\u0002ment, limited evidence) (Goddek et al., 2015; Al-Kodmany, 2018; Clin\u0002ton et al., 2018; Weidner and Yang, 2020). Such systems show promise \r for reducing food production environmental footprints and increasing \r [...]"


id: 10455284d772663860b1763cd4a1a67e
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"[...] food security, particularly in arid or water-stressed environments (Doyle \r et al., 2018; Mupambwa et al., 2019). Barriers to aquaponics and hydro\u0002ponics adoption include market acceptance of cultured fish species and \r desirability of plant crops, lack of expertise, legal constraints or high \r investment costs and financial feasibility (Bosma et al., 2017; Al-Kod\u0002many, 2018; Datta et al., 2018; Pantanella, 2018; El-Essawy et al., 2019; \r Martin and Molin, 2019; Perez-Urrestarazu et al., 2019; Specht et al., \r 2019). There is high confidence (high agreement, medium evidence) \r that a major barrier to hydroponic and aquaponics adoption is the re\u0002quirement for skilled operators (Goddek et al., 2015; Bosma et al., 2017; \r Datta et al., 2018; McHunu et al., 2018; Pantanella, 2018), which could \r be mitigated by decoupling systems and disciplines (Pantanella, 2018). \r As yet, these systems are not widely implemented and information on \r their climate change impacts is limited."


id: 2ffbc137a5030bc6f4bafd0996d9d73f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Recent reviews have summarised literature on production system \r transitions, driven at least partly by a changing climate or changing \r climate variability, that sometimes involves substantial shifts in \r enterprises and land configurations. These reviews found several cases \r of transitions affecting pastoral and mixed systems, with a range of \r responses including intensification, diversification and sedentarisation \r as well as the abandonment of agriculture (see Section  5.14.3.1, \r Vermeulen et al., 2018; Thornton et al., 2019). The consequences of these \r system transitions have been mixed; in some cases, the household-level \r outcomes have been beneficial, while in others not. Policy environments, \r defined in terms of multi-level governance structures and institutions, \r are critical enablers of change. The vulnerability of many crop-livestock \r keepers to climate change is particularly affected by property and grazing \r [...]"


id: 938a83fec8e43351c363d83c4ca2d61d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] rights (high confidence). Identifying the winners and losers from changes \r in land ownership and the use of communal lands in the coming decades \r is a key challenge for the research agenda, particularly as climate change \r impacts in the marginal lands intensify (Reid et al., 2014)."


id: 824c7a74ec8102dfa0bf5d54a54d556a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Coffee and cocoa are important crops in low-latitude regions where agriculture is projected to be heavily impacted by climate change. \r Both crops are at risk from climate change impacts by 2050 (Baca et al., 2014; Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015; Chemura et al., 2016; Schroth \r et al., 2016; Bacon et al., 2017; Schreyer et al., 2018; de Sousa et al., 2019; Lahive et al., 2019; Pham et al., 2019; Cilas and Bastide, 2020). \r Chocolate and coffee are notable among foods in that their carbon footprint ranges from negative to high, as these industries include \r both low-input agroforestry systems that have many co-benefits, and high-input monoculture systems where crops are grown without \r shade, in some cases on sites that have been deforested (Poore and Nemecek, 2019). While the coffee industry in many countries has \r already transitioned from agroforestry to full-sun production (Jha et al., 2014), the cocoa industry is at a turning point, with many growers \r [...]"


id: bb6a4434d35017925ce049803199bf31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"[...] deciding whether to move to the potentially more productive 'full-sun system', despite a general view that the agroforestry system is \r more resilient to climate change impacts (Rajab et al., 2016; Schroth et al., 2016; Farrell et al., 2018; Niether et al., 2020)."


id: 6f6839ae68acabbbcabf8e8125aa08ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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content:
"The choice of cropping system will have wide-reaching consequences for climate vulnerability and climate justice. Coffee and cocoa \r are often a main source of income for small-scale producers who are among the most vulnerable to climate hazards (Bacon et al., \r 2014; Schroth et al., 2016). Most of their produce is exported by large corporations and sold to relatively better-off consumers. In the \r context of climate justice, underlying structural inequities (socioeconomic, ethnicity, gender, caste), marginality and poverty help to shape \r the vulnerabilities of small-scale farmers to climate hazards (Beckford and Rhiney, 2016; Schreyer et al., 2018). Climate change may \r compound their vulnerability, if for example the loss of pollination services leads to a reduction in productivity (Avelino et al., 2015). \r Adaptation needs to consider the inequities associated with the commodity chain, and the adaptative capacity of producers as they \r [...]"


id: 6a1615d7b5f01cac1b7d8e08ced7bc63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] seek to move into the more advanced processing stages of the commodity chain to realise higher returns from their exports (Ovalle\u0002Rivera et al., 2015). Blue Mountain Coffee is a 'specialty' coffee associated with a protected area forest ecosystem that attracts a high \r price premium owing to its distinct flavour and aroma. The livelihoods of coffee farmers in this region are characterised by multiple \r socioeconomic, environmental and institutional stressors related to climate change, pests, plant diseases and production costs. Some \r coping strategies employed by these coffee farmers have increased their susceptibility to future climate impacts (Guido et al., 2019). Davis \r (2017) showed that these coffee farmers' food security challenges could be alleviated by improved marketing of fruit tree products under \r shade coffee farming systems. Adaptation measures in such systems need to consider co-benefits and negative trade-offs, especially \r [...]"


id: ca1a386f1e86ff0045e8d0cc3a340960
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32892
content:
"[...] in vulnerable communities, to avoid widening further the inequities, rural livelihood loss, migration and marginalisation, and ensure \r progress towards the SDGs (high confidence)."


id: c3107328a137236999f10f71dbfa0df1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"In Europe, one estimate is that the risk of aflatoxin contamination \r will increase in maize in a +2degC temperature scenario in Europe, with \r nearly 40% of Europe exceeding the current legal limits (Battilani and \r Toscano, 2016). In Malawi, maize aflatoxin levels above European \r Union (EU) legal thresholds are possible for most of the country by \r mid-21st century (Warnatzsch and Reay, 2020). The occurrence of \r toxin-producing fungi will increase and expand from tropical and \r subtropical areas into new regions and where appropriate capacity \r for surveillance and risk management is lacking (medium confidence)\r (Miller, 2016). The increase in toxigenic fungi in crops, and consequent \r contamination of staple foods with mycotoxins, will increase the risks \r of human and animal exposure (high confidence) (Botana and Sainz, \r 2015; Rose and Wu, 2015; Battilani, 2016; Avery et al., 2019; Bosch \r [...]"


id: 50f00ab8fcba53b7bc01d2ed3d0cbce4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] et al., 2019; Milicevic et al., 2019; Moretti et al., 2019; Van der Fels\u0002Klerx et al., 2019; FAO, 2020a)."


id: f28976549277639a2b1f93b3c56fc6f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40070
content:
"The potential for climate-change-based food losses exists in all \r parts of the food system--post-harvest storage, distribution and \r processing--with the potential for impacts in one part of the system \r to be passed on to other elements (Davis et  al., 2021). Storing a \r product destined for food use makes it available in times other than \r immediately after harvest, which is especially important for products \r with a pronounced seasonal availability or that are not available \r from other regions with different seasons. Storage of fresh products \r (meat, fish, fruits and vegetables) even with the best cold storage \r technology results in some quality loss relatively quickly. Higher \r temperatures increase the cost of maintaining quality. One estimate \r is that an increase in outdoor temperature from 17degC to 25degC \r increases cold storage power consumption by about 11% (James and \r James, 2010). Post-harvest storage of roots and cereals is subject \r [...]"


id: 2e39cf03bc2a9429e925a57f39895715
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5405
content:
"[...] to physical and quality losses from damage by mice, rats and birds \r and by microorganisms such as the toxigenic fungi discussed above, \r all of which are expected to increase in warmer and more humid \r conditions."


id: 80b25d85fc2b65d3dd46ea3bb7974f4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19774
content:
"Regional differences in resource availability are a key underlying \r driver of domestic and international trade. Climate change can change \r resource availability, in terms of both quantity and quality, altering \r trade flows, prices and incomes of producers. Climate change can also \r affect food access, and its stability can be affected through climate\u0002change-driven disruption of infrastructure (FAO et  al., 2018; Mbow \r et al., 2019). Extreme events are expected to become more common \r as climate change progresses. Recent examples illustrate the potential \r for trade disruptions. In March 2019, Cyclone Idai affected 1.7 million \r people in Mozambique and 920,000 in neighbouring Malawi, according \r to United Nations (UN) officials. The World Food Program reported that \r satellite imagery of flooding in central Mozambique showed an 'inland \r ocean' the size of Luxembourg with potentially large impacts on \r distribution of existing supplies, and uncertain effects on future food \r [...]"


id: b59138b17e6ce4c1c1ae98cc5de3daf6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29170
content:
"[...] production and availability. The extreme rainfall events in the US state \r of Iowa in spring 2019 destroyed large numbers of well-built grain \r silos. In addition, major road and bridge damage required rebuilding."


id: 73e5fdb429e843bb7a7ec046fc36e0af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17640
content:
"Trade plays a sizeable role in global food supplies. More than 1 billion \r people relied on international food trade in the early 21st century \r (Fader et al., 2013; Pradhan, 2014). Domestic and international trade \r flows can be dramatically affected by climate change impacts (medium \r evidence, high confidence) (Nelson et al., 2014; Pradhan, 2014; Wiebe \r et al., 2015). Since the impacts of climate change will not be uniform, \r profitable locations for exports production will change. In addition, the \r effects of increasing local weather variability caused by climate change \r means increasing variability of food availability for domestic use and \r international trade. Finally, extreme events driven by climate change \r can disrupt transportation along the food value chain. Countries more \r at risk of natural hazards that disrupt transportation and distribution, \r and with less extensive routes, are more vulnerable to climate change \r [...]"


id: e3af3fc7d1a7270b10c595e1114e45b9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37350
content:
"[...] impacts. A global multi-hazard risk assessment (Koks et  al., 2019) \r suggests surface and river flooding, which are projected to increase \r in a warmer climate, are the main hazards for road and railway \r infrastructure, increasingly disrupting international and domestic \r transportation of agricultural commodities."


id: ac039a000f8703181760b3951f20045b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27504
content:
"damage. Three categories of adaptation could be considered: adoption \r of technologies already in use elsewhere, including Indigenous and \r local knowledge, or available or near ready that become profitable as \r impacts become more severe; development of new technologies; and \r taking advantage of changing comparative advantage across regions. \r Specific examples of post-harvest technical adaptation options that \r are already available but could be more widely adopted include solar \r driers, cold storage facilities and transport and use of ultrasonic \r humidification of selected fruits and vegetables, a technology that has \r been shown in Europe to reduce losses in each post-harvest stage by \r 20% or more (Fabbri et al., 2018). Hermetic storage containers using \r community-based farmer research networks to scale out (Singano et al., \r 2020; Wenndt et al., 2021) also show promise. Another innovation is to \r introduce Aspergillus fungi that do not produce aflatoxins in biocontrol \r [...]"


id: d1d75a836225f1f88940ce4a5b2f0e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34269
content:
"[...] formulations, as is being undertaken in the Aflasafe project in Kenya \r (Bandyopadhyay et al., 2016)."


id: f21e3b6036a9893bec2395076a308254
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39988
content:
"International trade changes are a potentially important adaptation \r mechanism for both the short-term effects of climate variability and \r long-term changes in comparative advantage with globally substantial \r benefits but that are distributed unevenly (Mosnier et al., 2014; Baldos \r and Hertel, 2015; Fuss et  al., 2015; Costinot et  al., 2016; Hertel and \r Baldos, 2016; Gouel and Laborde, 2021). One estimate is that, with a \r reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers, \r the negative impacts of climate change globally would be reduced \r by 64%, with hunger-affected import-dependent regions seeing the \r greatest benefit. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, \r partial trade integration might lead to increased exports at the expense \r of domestic food availability (Janssens et  al., 2020). It is possible for \r policy changes that result in increased trade flows to also increase the \r [...]"


id: e78e033dcd9472330a091ee5c4b1fb93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38048
content:
"[...] potential for maladaptation, for example by encouraging conversion of \r environmentally sensitive areas to agriculture (Fuchs et al., 2020; 5.13.3)."


id: ccbad6bafc20088d9e5fd0cbbd29951f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33348
content:
"All food production systems (crops, livestock, marine, fish, mixed, \r aquaculture) have been undermined by climate change and are \r expected to experience larger impacts in the future as described in \r earlier sections (see Sections  5.4.1, 5.5, 5.8, 5.9, 5.10). In addition, \r sudden production losses from extreme climate events can reduce food \r security (FAO et al., 2018; Cottrell et al., 2019; FAO et al., 2020; Anttila\u0002Hughes et al., 2021). For example, a 2007 drought-induced crop failure \r in southern Africa led to severe food insecurity in Lesotho because \r of the land-locked country's dependence on imports from South \r Africa that aggravated food availability and access under conditions \r of declining food production and land degradation (Verschuur et al., \r 2021). Pest and disease outbreaks in both crops and livestock due \r to climate change (Sections  5.4.1, 5.5.1) have also impacted food \r availability and access (see Box  5.8 Desert Locust case study). Loss \r [...]"


id: fecb9e17155fb014eba3c85d78f8832e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42220
content:
"Climate change affects agricultural labour productivity through \r increased intensity and frequency of heat stress events, with \r those performing physical labour in high humidity and ambient \r temperatures most vulnerable to heat stress (high confidence) (Hsiang \r et al.; FAO et al., 2018; Kjellstrom et al., 2019; Antonelli et al., 2020; \r Shayegh et  al., 2020). Labour capacity, supply and productivity loss \r in moderate outdoor work due to heat stress is estimated between \r 2% and 14%, depending on the location and indicator (Ioannou et al., \r 2017; Kjellstrom et al., 2018), with an overall estimate of 5.3% loss \r in productivity for outdoor work between 2000 and 2015 (medium \r confidence) (Watts et  al., 2018) but as high as 14% in low-income \r tropical countries (Antonelli et al., 2020; Shayegh et al., 2020). Highly \r vulnerable occupation groups affected by heat stress include farmers, \r farmworkers and livestock keepers working outdoors in low-income \r [...]"


id: e168c727f82e994b664a083bafdb1144
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content:
"[...] tropical countries (high confidence) (Zander et  al., 2015; Kjellstrom \r et  al., 2016; Flouris et  al., 2018; Kjellstrom et  al., 2018; Levi et  al., \r 2018). Farmworkers and small-scale food producers in high- and \r middle-income countries involved in outdoor labour are also affected \r by heat stress (Zander et al., 2015; Gosling et al., 2018; Szewczyk et al., \r 2018; Watts et  al., 2021). There is also evidence that heat stress is \r affecting labour supply through variation in nutrition intake (Antonelli \r et al., 2020)."


id: 60d12937641c96c457dbc11078fb49ef
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content:
"At the end of 2019, desert locust swarms infested Eastern Africa and caused widespread damage to crops and pastures, threatening food \r security and livelihoods (Kimathi et al., 2020; Salih et al., 2020). The FAO estimates that over 200,000 ha of crop and pastureland were \r damaged, rendering 2 million people in the region acutely food insecure (IGAD, 2020). The desert locust infestation was facilitated by two \r tropical cyclones that created desert lakes in a usually dry region of Saudi Arabia. Moist soils, warm temperatures and ample vegetation \r provided a suitable environment for desert locust breeding and migration to Yemen and Somalia, where the pest remained uncontrolled \r due to conflict and spread to neighbouring countries. A series of political and socioeconomic weaknesses such as armed conflict, limited \r financial resources and lack of early actions compounded the impact of the current invasion and made it the most damaging in 70 years \r [...]"


id: 1641474e9d9900ba9128d902e02e4346
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1130
content:
"Low-income urban and rural households who are net food buyers \r are particularly affected by food price increases, with reduction in \r consumption of diverse food groups (high confidence) (Green et al., \r 2013; Villasante et  al., 2015; FAO et  al., 2018). Depending on the \r context, particular groups, including women, ethnic and religious \r minorities, will be more vulnerable to worsening food insecurity from \r climate change impacts (Clay et  al., 2018; Jantarasami et  al., 2018; \r Nature climate change Editorials, 2019; Algur et  al., 2021 and see \r Cross-Chapter Box  GENDER in Chapter 18). Indigenous Peoples are \r often more vulnerable to climate change, due to conditions of poverty, \r limited resources, discrimination and marginalisation (high confidence) \r (Smith and Rhiney, 2016; Vinyeta et al., 2016; Jantarasami et al., 2018). \r Indigenous Peoples may experience loss of culturally significant foods \r and declining traditional ecological knowledge (Dounias and Ichikawa, \r [...]"


id: 88450843a26afcbf856ebd0b44f5f6ff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21134
content:
"Climate change will have negative effects on food security and nutrition \r in 2050 (high agreement, medium evidence) (Amjath-Babu et al., 2016; \r Springmann et al., 2016; Lloyd et al., 2018; Richardson et al., 2018; see \r Chapter 7; Hasegawa et al., 2021a). How many people are affected \r will depend considerably on non-climatic drivers of food security (van \r Dijk et al., 2021), but modelling studies agreed that climate change \r would increase the risk of food insecurity. For example, one study \r comparing an RCP8.5 scenario with one that has zero climate impacts \r estimates 65 million additional people (10% increase) will experience \r food insecurity due to climate change impacts in 2050 (modelling \r results in Nelson et al., 2018). Another study accounting for climate \r extreme events estimates that, by 2050, the number of people at risk \r of hunger will increase by 20% and 11% under high- and low-emission \r scenarios, respectively, owing to a once-per-100-year extreme climate \r [...]"


id: 374cdd0c319afb3d9b8ac85f1f2a8491
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"[...] event (Hasegawa et  al., 2021a). Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia \r in this study were projected to be at the greatest risk, with triple the \r amount of South Asia's current food reserves needed to offset such \r an extreme event. Models suggest that food security and malnutrition \r impacts will be much more severe from 2050 onwards relative to pre\u00022050, but the scale and extent of the impacts will strongly depend on \r the GHG emission scenario (FAO, 2018a; Richardson et al., 2018). Due \r to CIDs and non-climate drivers of food insecurity, Sub Saharan Africa \r is projected to be the hardest hit, followed by South Asia and Central \r and South America, but contingent on adaptation level (Richardson \r et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2021a)."


id: a15f16c6f21e779aea706aaefb8e1760
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25608
content:
"Climate change significantly increases the future food \r safety risks (high confidence) (Sections  5.8.2, 5.8.3, 5.11.1, \r Box  5.9). Increasing temperatures and drought stress are \r expected to lead to greater aflatoxin contamination of food \r crops.  Aflatoxins, a major foodborne hazard, contaminate \r staple crops and are associated with various health risks, \r including stunting in children and cancer (Koshiol et al., 2017). \r In LICs, children with high exposure to aflatoxins were found to \r be more likely to suffer from micronutrient (zinc and vitamin A) \r deficiencies (Watson et al., 2016b). Climate change is expected \r to cause decreases in micro- and macronutrient content of \r foods, leading to an increased burden of infectious diseases, \r diarrhea and anaemia, with an estimated 10% increase in \r disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2050 associated with \r undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies  (Aberman and \r [...]"


id: f75230c1347259759c07ea4f2c9e9d5a
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"[...] Tirado, 2014; Smith and Myers, 2018; Weyant et al., 2018; Zhu \r et al., 2018a; Ebi and Loladze, 2019; FAO, 2020a; Sulser et al., \r 2021b)."


id: c776dd9a938594013ef512bb534bd5f
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content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32403
content:
"One case study is the Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) programme, a public-private \r partnership that transplants a cold shock protein B, known as Droughtgard, into maize in \r order to mitigate yield losses from drought. Proponents suggest that this GM venture, which \r will be distributed free to smallholder farmers, represents the best strategy for ensuring \r stable yields in the face of climatic change across Africa (Kyetere et al., 2019). Critics argue \r that WEMA maize is not a good fit with the smallholder farming systems it is designed to \r benefit, with particular concerns around how farmers will access the extra inputs, credit and \r labour that WEMA maize requires to be successful (Schnurr, 2019).\r Emergent genome-edited crops are considered a more precise, accessible and accelerated \r means of targeting stressors that matter to poor farmers, but evidence is limited (Kole \r et al., 2015; Haque et al., 2018; Zaidi et al., 2019). A more iterative and flexible adaptation \r [...]"


id: cb86c9ce2f12976b0c084682a64f6a03
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33136
content:
"[...] approach beyond just genomic improvement to tackle the multiplicity of factors limiting \r smallholder production is anticipated to increase the likelihood that these promising \r technologies can enhance food security and nutrition (medium confidence) (Giller et al., \r 2017; Stone, 2017; Montenegro de Wit, 2019).\r To address food security and nutrition, future breeding needs to move from just enhancing \r agronomic traits of a single crop to improving multiple traits of multiple crops suited to \r local conditions that will increase climate resilience of farming systems. To make breeding \r technologies scale-neutral, the policy structure needs to support and protect smallholders \r (medium confidence)."


id: 169c46dd2883ec790b22ad7e22eae620
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1192
content:
"Urban areas have more than half of the global population and consume \r about 70% of the total food supply (FAO, 2019b). The urban population \r is projected to grow further to about 70% of the global population \r by 2050 (UN, 2018). Direct evidence supporting climate resilience of \r urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) is limited and contextual, but \r there is medium confidence of multi-functional benefits from UPA, \r depending on regions and types of UPA (Artmann and Sartison, 2018; \r Kareem et  al., 2020). UPA takes different forms of production, and \r can be broadly classified into four categories, depending on operating \r characteristics and capital inputs (Table 5.16) (Goldstein et al., 2016). \r Controlled environments can protect crops, livestock and fish from \r extreme weather events or pest and disease outbreak (Mohareb \r et al., 2017). Innovative indoor farming such as vertical farming can \r be highly productive with minimal water and nutrient supply but can \r [...]"


id: a8e8df3adfe7b4c384a64906b2f0ac3
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"[...] be capital intensive with high energy demand (O'Sullivan et al., 2019), \r and those with aquaponics can be water demanding (Love et  al., \r 2015). Currently, commodities are often limited to crops with short \r growing seasons such as leafy vegetables. Vertically grown crops are \r more expensive than field-grown produce and, thus, not accessible \r for low-income urban dwellers (Al-Kodmany, 2018). Community and \r institutional unconditioned (outdoor) farms and gardens are better \r positioned to provide increased access to healthy food to those who \r need it (Eigenbrod and Gruda, 2015; Goodman and Minner, 2019)."


id: 59ec0b485648d487a03cb699275cb179
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13067
content:
"A study in Lesotho examined the extent to which climate change \r increased the likelihood of an acute drought in 2007, and a related \r food crisis (Verschuur et al., 2021). Given land degradation, reliance on \r rainfed agriculture and food imports from neighbouring South Africa, \r the study recommended crop diversification, increased use of drought \r tolerant crop varieties and expanded trade partners in the medium to \r long term, to both strengthen regional food production and reduce \r risk of crop failure and the likelihood of climate-induced drought \r from trade partners reducing food imports (Verschuur et al., 2021). A \r longitudinal study of smallholder coffee farmers in Nicaragua found \r that crop diversification, alongside crop management and varietal \r improvement, would help farmers strengthen food security long \r term in the face of climate hazards such as drought and coffee leaf \r rust (Bacon et al., 2021). Another medium- to long-term adaptation \r [...]"


id: 8cbb3c9099b78c1eb01b8d539f6a32eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21945
content:
"[...] response is to address systemic gender, land tenure and other social \r inequities as part of an inclusive approach (Bezner Kerr et al., 2019; \r Khatri-Chhetri et al., 2020; Bacon et al., 2021). This long-term strategy \r could be part of a human-rights-based approach (HRBA, 5.12.8)"


id: 735c679cf2efa98b4f3ed586b9fe520
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17547
content:
"menu (Bacon and Krpan, 2018; Kurz, 2018; Garnett et al., 2019; Gravert \r and Kurz, 2019), the relative price of vegetarian options (Garnett et al., \r 2021) and the 'access' (order and distance) to vegetarian options in \r the retail physical environment (Garnett et al., 2020) can all increase \r consumption of plant-based foods and decrease meat consumption \r (Bianchi et al., 2018). Studies on food environment 'nudging' methods \r found that making the vegetarian meal option the default during \r conference registration or on a meal plan significantly reduced meat \r consumption (Campbell-Arvai et al., 2012; Hansen et al., 2019b). Studies \r simply educating people about the negative health and environmental/\r climate outcomes of meat consumption have been found to have very \r little impact (Byerly et al., 2018). More research is needed to understand \r the potential for motivational crowding in shaping pro-climate dietary \r [...]"


id: 5c6c80fb43772cd45121cc31a26aec1d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13514
content:
"[...] choice, as has been demonstrated in development (Agrawal et al., 2015) \r and conservation interventions (Rode et al., 2015)."


id: 674627e77ae9fb9a7c57b053fa0f20b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15440
content:
"Integrated multi-sectoral strategies that incorporate social protection \r are effective adaptation responses (high confidence) (Gros et  al., \r 2019; Ulrichs et  al., 2019; Medina Hidalgo et  al., 2020; Daron et  al., \r 2021; Ilboudo Nebie et al., 2021; Verschuur et al., 2021; 7.4.2, Cross\u0002Chapter Box-GENDER in Chapter 18). Social protection programmes, \r such as cash transfers, weather index insurance and asset-building \r activities such as well construction, can support short-term responses to \r acute food insecurity in response to extreme events but can also build \r adaptive capacity longer term (Table 5.16, Costella et al., 2017; Ulrichs \r et al., 2019). An assessment of an adaptive social protection programme \r in the Sahel found that tailored seasonal forecasting can improve \r responsiveness to climate-related extreme events, but investment in \r capacity building and dialogue between forecasters, community groups \r [...]"


id: d597d7851d931aea7e9055027cb71204
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34888
content:
"[...] and humanitarian organisations is needed (Daron et al., 2021). Forecast\u0002based financing, which automatically disperses funds when threshold \r forecasts are reached for an extreme event (Coughlan de Perez et al., \r 2016), used in Bangladesh prior to a 2017 flood event allowed low\u0002income, flood-prone communities to access better-quality food in the \r short term without accruing debt (Gros et al., 2019)."


id: f5d2c54e033d0fa22db173297eeb6c54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40610
content:
"A human rights-based approach (HRBA), endorsed by the UN, is one \r strategy for addressing core inequities that are key drivers for food \r insecurity and malnutrition of particular groups such as low-income \r consumers, children, women, small-scale producers and different \r regions of the world (FAO, 2013; Claeys and Delgado Pugley, 2017; \r Caron et  al., 2018; Le Mouel et  al., 2018; Springmann et  al., 2018; \r Tramel, 2018; HLPE, 2019; Willett et al., 2019). Climate change impacts, \r mitigation and adaptation approaches can also worsen inequities \r (Eastin, 2018; Borras et  al., 2020). HRBA includes core principles of \r participation, accountability, non-discrimination, transparency, human \r rights, empowerment and rule of law, which can be integrated into \r policymaking and implementation as part of transforming the food \r system (FAO, 2013; Caron et al., 2018; Toussaint and Martinez Blanco, \r 2020). The right to well-being can serve as the overarching umbrella \r [...]"


id: 813c759c0fd7b52ec72558b1a8ef33b4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19868
content:
"[...] of HRBA to addressing climate change within food systems and \r includes a right to health, right to food, cultural rights, the rights of \r the child and the right to healthy environment (Swinburn et al., 2019). \r An HRBA has a specific focus on those groups who are vulnerable \r due to poverty, discrimination and historical inequities and involves \r meaningful participation of vulnerable groups in governance, design \r and implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, including \r gender responsiveness and integration of Indigenous Peoples' \r knowledge (UNHRC 2017; Caron et al., 2018; Mills, 2018). There can \r be conflicts and trade-offs, such as between addressing land rights or \r traditional fishing grounds, the right to food, and addressing climate \r justice concerns (Mills, 2018; Borras et al., 2020; Section 5.13). Adaptation \r strategies that incorporate HRBA include legislation, programmes that \r address gender inequities in agriculture, agroecology, recognition of \r [...]"


id: 77c5b925fbdd5d2adf1dd90c4208a185
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18280
content:
"[...] rights to land, fishing areas and other natural resources, protection \r of culturally significant seeds, and community-based adaptation that \r explicitly involves marginalised groups in governance (Mills, 2018; \r Tramel, 2018; Huyer et al., 2019; Borras et al., 2020; Section 5.14)."


id: 95a741e87dac3afbc71dabbd45da2b76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23522
content:
"Differentiated responses based on food security level and climate risk \r can be effective. A study of drought impacts on food security in Senegal \r between 1997 and 2016 recommended different adaptation strategies \r based on whether the region was a higher risk of acute short-term food \r insecurity and/or faced higher risk of drought (Table 5.16; Ilboudo Nebie \r et  al., 2021). Given identified linkages between higher temperatures \r and extreme events with declines in child dietary diversity, safeguarding \r diverse diets is one important adaptation priority (Niles et al., 2021). \r Humanitarian responses are appropriate for short-term acute hunger, \r while in the medium term, home-grown school feeding programmes \r with diverse foods can support child nutrition and learning, and with \r local procurement can also increase income and food security of \r smallholder farmers (Ilboudo Nebie et al., 2021). Farmer associations \r [...]"


id: 48a546b41c0200595c5b891d9319d409
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10001
content:
"[...] can manage regional staple food storehouses, in which farmers store \r their harvest and receive credit, and can sell their harvest later in \r the season and pay back the credit with interest, strengthening local \r supplies and farmer income (Ilboudo Nebie et al., 2021)."


id: 181bcd13e2d9935b438d02143f1afa09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:22:54
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1449
content:
"Land deals raise important social justice questions (Franco et  al., \r 2017; Hunsberger et  al., 2017; Borras and Franco, 2018b; Borras \r et  al., 2020; Sekine, 2021) (high confidence). Specific impacts of \r land deals vary according to their purpose, location, actors, land use \r history and procedural aspects. However, multi-case analyses identify \r severe adverse impacts (Table 5.18). LSLAs are a significant driver of \r tropical forest loss (Davis et al., 2020), increasing emissions through \r deforestation (Liao et  al., 2021) and industrialisation of agriculture \r (Rosa et  al., 2021). LSLAs entail large water appropriations (Breu \r et  al., 2016; Chiarelli et  al., 2016; Adams et  al., 2019), affecting \r local populations' access to water and food security (Dell'Angelo \r et  al., 2018; Veldwisch et  al., 2018). By increasing exported crops, \r and limiting local populations' access to land, LSLAs produce food \r [...]"


