# document

id: acf9a2b4c51a04e01fdd56bcd4cd402a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27671
content:
"Increasingly, multi-hazard risk assessments are undertaken at the coast (e.g., flooding and inundation of coastal lands in India; Kunte \r\net al., 2014), to understand the inter-relationships between hazards (e.g., Gill and Malamud, 2014), and by focusing on hazard \r\ninteractions where one hazard triggers another or increases the probability of others occurring. Liu et al. (2016a) provide a systematic \r\nhazard interaction classification based on the geophysical environment that allows for the consideration of all possible interactions \r\n(independent, mutex, parallel and series) between different hazards, and for the calculation of the probability and magnitude of \r\nmultiple interacting natural hazards occurring together. Advances have been reported since AR5 by using, for example, modular sets \r\nof vulnerability indicators, flexibly adapting to the hazard situation (Hagenlocher et al., 2018)."


id: 2bbd8089d27781a84fcd3c147b6e8932
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 4955
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"migration (Kirwan and Megonigal, 2013; Schile et al., 2014; Hopper \r\nand Meixler, 2016). For instance, coastal habitat loss due to human \r\ngrowth and encroachment due to development, and human \r\nstructures that restrict tides and, thus, interrupt mass flow processes \r\n(water, nutrients and sediments) impact tidal ecosystems depending \r\non the type of restriction, its severity and the geomorphology of \r\nthe system (Burdick and Roman, 2012). Coastal dunes, for example, \r\nalthough threatened, are well maintained by protected areas in some \r\nlocalities, like Italy, but climate change could cause a drastic drop in \r\ntheir protection (Prisco et al., 2013). In addition, seagrass and other \r\nbenthic ecosystems, for example, are declining across their range \r\nat unprecedented rates (Telesca et al., 2015; Unsworth et al., 2015; \r\nSamper-Villarreal et al., 2016; Balestri et al., 2017), due to degrading \r\nwater quality (i.e.,  increased nutrient and sediment or dissolved "


id: 45da336c9be48ab6e5d1a9b3f33bf850
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 9508
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"local adaptation to SLR and its consequences (high confidence). This \r\nsection explores new knowledge since AR5 regarding changes in \r\necosystem's exposure and vulnerability as well as processes affecting \r\nthe ability of ecosystems to adapt to SLR, and associated impacts, \r\nsuch as flooding or salinisation, on coastal social-ecological systems \r\nand coast-dependent livelihoods."


id: 38b970d43b18beca3cddc5dd259af72c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"The effects of coastal habitat loss on ecosystem exposure are well \r\ndocumented (Lavery et al., 2013; Serrano et al., 2014; Short et al., \r\n2014; Yaakub et al., 2014; Cullen-Unsworth and Unsworth, 2016; \r\nBreininger et al., 2017), and depend on the type of ecosystem, \r\nits conservation status, and interactions with SLR and human \r\ninterventions such as coastal squeeze, which prevents inland "


id: 435610bf4082e0f607c29b956404da86
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 9061
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"organic carbon loads) from upland-based activities, which include \r\ndeforestation, agriculture, aquaculture, fishing, and urbanisation, \r\nport development, channel deepening, dredging and anchoring of \r\nboats (Saunders et al., 2013; Ray et al., 2014; Deudero et al., 2015; \r\nAbrams et al., 2016; Benham et al., 2016; Mayer-Pinto et al., 2016; \r\nThorhaug et al., 2017). The exact magnitude of area loss is still \r\nuncertain, especially at smaller scales (Yaakub et al., 2014; Telesca \r\net al., 2015) and the implications of habitat shifts for ecosystem \r\nattributes and processes, and the services they deliver, remain poorly \r\nunderstood (Ray et al., 2014; Tuya et al., 2014)."


id: 751296a7542d391d01286f7cf434aaa2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"management, or restoration regimes (Maxwell et al., 2015; Unsworth \r\net al., 2015). Furthermore, although local management efforts \r\ncannot prevent severe climate change impacts on ecosystems, they \r\ncan attempt to slow down adverse impacts, and allow the degree of \r\nevolutionary adaptation that is feasible given the trajectory of global \r\nGHG emission reductions (Brown et al., 2013). "


id: 467def6c64884a5929265ee8f15edddf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"In summary, coastal ecosystems' with responses to SLR around the \r\nglobe are complex and variable, with many specific responses at the \r\necosystem level or from keystone (foundation) species remaining \r\npoorly understood (Thompson et al., 2015). Moreover, responses are \r\nstudied independently when holistic approaches may be required \r\nto understand how multiple threats affect ecosystem components, \r\nstructure and functions (Giakoumi et al., 2015), and how human \r\nbehaviour enables or constrains ecosystem responses to climate \r\nchange (Field et al., 2017). In addition to the intrinsic coastal \r\necosystem values at stake, increasing exposure and vulnerability \r\nof these ecosystems contributes to increasing human exposure and \r\nvulnerability to SLR (medium evidence, high agreement; Arkema \r\net al., 2013)."


id: 72794e971212847250ef4616f7038ccb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"The 2012 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and \r\nDisasters (SREX) acknowledged that patterns of human development \r\ncreate and compound exposure and vulnerability to climate-related \r\nhazards, including SLR (high confidence). The recent IPBES report also \r\ndiscusses the role of anthropogenic drivers in biodiversity loss (Diaz \r\net al., 2019). Climate change-focussed studies have progressively \r\nmoved from the analysis of various parameters' influence taken \r\nindividually (education, poverty, etc.) to a more systemic approach that \r\ndescribes combinations of parameters, e.g., coastal urbanisation and \r\nsettlement patterns (see Section 4.3.2.2) resulting from urban-rural \r\ndiscrepancies and trends in sociopolitical and economic inequalities. \r\nThe AR5 also started differentiating between contemporary and \r\nhistorically-rooted drivers (e.g., trends in social systems over recent "


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created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"Research to date has focused on identifying synergisms among \r\nstressors (Campbell and Fourqurean, 2014; Lefcheck et al., 2017; \r\nMoftakhari et al., 2017; Noto and Shurin, 2017), but antagonisms \r\nand other feedbacks may be just as common (Brown et al., 2013; \r\nConlisk et al., 2013; Maxwell et al., 2015; Crotty et al., 2017), and \r\nare seldom investigated, as is also true for thresholds and tipping \r\npoints in coastal ecosystem stability and vulnerability (Connell et al., \r\n2017; O'Meara et al., 2017; Wu et al., 2017). This precludes complete \r\nunderstanding of their complex responses, which may be greater \r\nthan additive responses alone (Crotty et al., 2017), their adequate "


id: 822eb4792f94fc3a5d35eb48ecf46bf2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"Latin America and the Caribbean, for example, it is estimated that \r\n6-8% of the population live in areas that are at high or very high \r\nrisk of being affected by coastal hazards (Reguero et al., 2015; \r\nCalil et al., 2017; Villamizar et al., 2017), with higher percentages \r\nin Caribbean islands (Mycoo, 2018). In the Pacific, ~57% of Pacific \r\nIsland countries' built infrastructure are located in risk-prone coastal \r\nareas (Kumar and Taylor, 2015). In Kiribati, due to the flow of outer, \r\nrural populations to limited, low-elevated capital islands, together \r\nwith constraints inherent in the sociocultural land tenure system, the \r\nbuilt area located <20  m from the shoreline quadrupled between \r\n1969 and 2007-2008 (Duvat et al., 2013). Other examples of rural \r\nexodus are reported in the recent literature, for example in the \r\nMaldives (Speelman et al., 2017). "


id: 192b85f080459145e0b64968e64a353a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"decades; Marino, 2012; Duvat et al., 2017; Fawcett et al., 2017), \r\nand reported some progress in the development of context-specific \r\nstudies, especially on coastal megacities, major deltas and small \r\nislands (Cross-Chapter Box 9, Box 4.1). "


id: 427546d05bc5bbf334c9b1cfcc3ac13b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"AR5 also concluded with very high confidence that both RSL rise \r\nand related impacts are influenced by a variety of local social and/\r\nor environmental processes unrelated to climate (e.g., anthropogenic \r\nsubsidence, glacial isostatic adjustment, sediment supply and \r\ncoastal squeeze). Some of these processes are partly attributable as \r\nanthropogenic drivers, and although they may or may not be directly \r\nrelated to RSL rise, they do cause changes in coastal ecosystem \r\nhabitat connectivity and ecosystem health conditions, for instance, \r\nand consequently influence the ability of coastal social-ecological \r\nsystems as a whole to cope with and adapt to SLR and its impacts. "


id: 1d41afcf96cf12e5172a0566a5aeca73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"However, the scientific literature still barely deals with the \r\nexposure and vulnerability of social-ecological systems to SLR \r\nspecifically. Papers predominantly analyse the immediate and \r\ndelayed consequences of extreme events such as TCs, storms and \r\ndistant swells (see Section  6.3.3), for instance, and the resulting \r\nexposure and vulnerability 'in the context of SLR' (Woodruff et al., \r\n2013). One reason for this touches on the difficulty for society to \r\nfully comprehend and for science to fully analyse long-term gradual \r\nchanges like SLR (Fincher et al., 2014; Oppenheimer and Alley, 2016; \r\nElrick-Barr et al., 2017). Consequently, Sections 4.3.2.2 to 4.3.2.5 \r\nconcentrate on highlighting the anthropogenic or systemic drivers \r\nthat have the potential to influence exposure and vulnerability to \r\nslow-onset sea level related hazards."


id: af349cbffcdca9368eb9146f55ba6d07
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"the Mekong delta by the end of this century, with the most important \r\nsingle driver leading to inundation of large portions of the delta \r\nbeing ground-water pumping induced land subsidence. Thi Ha et al. \r\n(2018) estimated the decline in sediment supply to the Mekong delta \r\nto be around 75% between the 1970s and the period 2009-2016. \r\nIn the Red River, the construction of the Hoa Binh Dam in the 1980s \r\nled to a 65% drop in sediment supply to the sea (Vinh et al., 2014). \r\nBased on projections of historical and 21st century sediment delivery \r\nto the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Mahanadi and Volta deltas, \r\nDunn et al. (2018) showed that these deltas fall short in sediment \r\nand may not be able to maintain their current elevation relative to \r\nsea level, suggesting increasing salinisation, erosion, flood hazards \r\nand adaptation demands. "


id: fa5d589259cc8c998ac2a0f11f5d961f
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"to contribute to shoreline erosion, for example, for shorelines of Crete \r\n(Foteinis and Synolakis, 2015), and several sub-Saharan countries \r\nsuch Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania \r\n(UNEP, 2015). At the global scale, 24% of the world's sandy beaches \r\nare eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m yr-1, while 28% are accreting \r\nfor the period 1984-2016. The largest and longest eroding sandy \r\ncoastal stretches are in North America (Texas; Luijendijk et al., 2018)."


id: 2325707e90dfa11607a35ddb6fc0bbc8
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"Overall, reduced freshwater and sediment inputs from the river \r\nbasins are critical factors determining delta sustainability (Renaud \r\net al., 2013; Day et al., 2016). In some contexts, this can be addressed \r\nthrough basin-scale management which allow more natural flows \r\nof water and sediments through the system, including methods \r\nfor long-term flood mitigation such as improved river-floodplain \r\nconnectivity, the controlled redirection of a river (i.e.,  avulsions) \r\nduring times of elevated sediment loads, the removal of levees, and \r\nthe redirection of future development to lands less prone to extreme \r\nflooding (Renaud et al., 2013; Day et al., 2016; Brakenridge et al., \r\n2017). These actions could potentially increase the persistence of \r\ncoastal landforms in the context of SLR. Next to decreasing sediment \r\ninputs to the coast, river bed and beach sand mining has been shown "


id: b96022ef3290ae2803904d942cd3602e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"be inherent in unfavourable background conditions (higher illiteracy \r\nrates, deficiencies in food and calories intake and poorer health \r\nconditions) as a result of, among other things, traditions, social norms \r\nand patriarchy. Together, these barriers disadvantage women more \r\nthan men in developing effective responses to anticipate gradual \r\nenvironmental changes such as persistent coastal erosion, flooding \r\nand soil salinisation (medium evidence, high agreement). Such \r\nconclusions are in line with the literature on gender inequality and \r\nclimate change at large (Alston, 2013; Pearse, 2017), thus suggesting \r\nno major SLR-inherent specificities."


id: 7bb73839a5de2e79ef5daffef6247f17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"Despite the identification of this issue in AR4, its treatment in \r\nAR5 remained limited. Recent literature partly focussing on SLR \r\nreaffirms that indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IK and \r\nLK; Cross-Chapter Box  4 in Chapter  1 and Glossary) are key to \r\ndetermining how people recognise and respond to environmental \r\nrisk (Bridges and McClatchey, 2009; Lefale, 2010; Leonard et al., \r\n2013; Lazrus, 2015), and therefore to increasing adaptive capacity \r\nand reducing long-term vulnerability (Ignatowski and Rosales, 2013; \r\nMcMillen et al., 2014; Hesed and Paolisso, 2015; Janif et al., 2016; \r\nMorrison, 2017). "


id: 81103d97030cd285c03b75307fa4ed79
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"Gender inequality came to prominence only recently in climate change \r\nstudies (~15 years ago; see Pearse, 2017). In light of sea-related \r\nhazards and SLR specifically, the issue is still mainly investigated in the \r\ncontext of developing countries, although growing attention is paid to \r\nthe issue in developed countries (e.g., Lee et al., 2015; Pearse, 2017). \r\nRecent studies in southern coastal Bangladesh, for example, show \r\nthat women get less access than men to climate- and disaster-related \r\ninformation (both emergency information and training programmes), \r\ndecision making processes at the household and community levels, \r\neconomic resources including financial means such as micro-credit, \r\nland ownership, and mobility within and outside the villages (Rahman, \r\n2013; Alam and Rahman, 2014; Garai, 2016). Gender inequity may "


id: 1bc1637e89e507ba42ac90905442b99a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"In some specific contexts, climate change will also imply no-analogue \r\nchanges, such as rapid ice-melt and changing conditions in the Arctic \r\nthat have no precedent in the modern era, and could thus limit the \r\nrelevance of IK and LK in efforts to address significantly different \r\ncircumstances. Except in these specific situations, the literature "


id: b796cc07d495d5d275433967cad505d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"suggests that the loss of IK and LK, and related social norms and \r\nmechanisms, will increase populations' exposure and vulnerability to \r\nSLR impacts (Nakashima et al., 2012). The literature notably points \r\nout that modern, externally-driven socioeconomic dynamics, such as \r\nthe introduction of imported food (noodles, rice, canned meat and \r\nfish, etc.), diminish the cultural importance of IK-based practices and \r\ndiets locally, together with introducing dependency on monetisation \r\nand external markets (Hay, 2013; Campbell, 2015). "


id: 9119841b136f302230a3cc76a6d60109
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"vulnerability as it shapes authorities' and people's attitudes towards \r\nsudden and slow onset hazards, as shown by Terpstra (2011), \r\nLazrus (2015), Elrick-Barr et al. (2017) and O'Neill et al. (2016) in \r\nthe Netherlands, Tuvalu, Australia and Ireland, respectively. The \r\nprogressive discounting of coastal hazard risks and subsequent \r\nloss of risk memory also played a role in coastal disasters such as \r\nHurricane Katrina in 2005 in the USA (Burby, 2006; Kates et al., 2006) \r\nand Storm Xynthia in 2010 in France (Vinet et al., 2012; Genovese \r\nand Przyluski, 2013; Chadenas et al., 2014). "


id: f2edd33efb78b50f859f5f867b48682f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"As a result, the loss of IK and LK may increase long-term vulnerability \r\nto SLR (medium evidence, high agreement). Given that IK and LK are \r\nlargely based on observing and 'making sense' of the surrounding \r\nenvironment (moon, waves, winds, animal behaviours, topography, \r\netc.), such a loss reflects a more general concern about the weakening \r\nof environmental connectedness in contemporary societies, which is \r\nnot limited to remote, rural and developing communities (medium \r\nconfidence). In developed contexts too, the loss of LK has played a \r\ncritical role in recent coastal disasters (e.g., Katrina in 2005 in the \r\nUSA, Kates et al., 2006) and increasing vulnerability to SLR (e.g., \r\nNewton and Weichselgartner, 2014; Wong et al., 2014). "


id: b10b23ec9402f7500973394c91c02ba1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"Risk perceptions stem from intertwined predictors such as 'gender, \r\npolitical party identification, cause-knowledge,  impact-knowledge, \r\nresponse-knowledge, holistic affect, personal experience with \r\nextreme weather events, [social norms] and biospheric value \r\norientations' (Kellens et al., 2011; Carlton and Jacobson, 2013; Lujala \r\net al., 2015; van der Linden, 2015, p. 112; Weber, 2016; Elrick-Barr \r\net al., 2017; Goeldner-Gianella et al., 2019). In general, there is a \r\nlack of education, training and thus knowledge and literacy on recent \r\nand projected trends in sea level, which compromises ownership \r\nof science facts and projections at all levels, from individuals and \r\ninstitutions to society at large."


id: c8989a6e6ef3e7fe12bd6c76ff93b09c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"Recent literature confirms that anthropogenic drivers played an \r\nimportant role, over the last century, in increasing exposure and \r\nvulnerability worldwide, and indicates that they will continue \r\nto do so in the absence of adaptation (medium evidence, high \r\nagreement). Some scholars argue that 'even with pervasive and \r\nextensive environmental change associated with ~2oC warming, it \r\nis non-climatic factors that primarily determine impacts, response \r\noptions and barriers to adapting' (Ford et al., 2015, p. 1046). Although \r\nit is the interaction of climate and non-climate factors that eventually "


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"determine the level of impacts, acknowledging the role of a range of \r\npurely anthropogenic drivers has important implications for action. It \r\nsuggests that major action can be taken now to enhance long-term \r\nadaptation prospects, notwithstanding uncertainty about local RSL \r\nrise and resultant impacts in the distant future (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement; Magnan et al., 2016). Acting on the human-driven \r\ndrivers and root causes of vulnerability could yield co-benefits, for \r\nexample by improving the state and condition of coastal ecosystems - \r\nand hence the capacity to cope with or adapt to SLR impacts - or, in \r\ndeltaic regions, lowering the rates of anthropogenic subsidence and, \r\nin turn, minimising changes in sea level. "


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"and politics, and risk perceptions) and play a critical role in shaping \r\nthe direction and influence of individual drivers and of their possible \r\ncombinations on the ground (medium evidence, high agreement; \r\nEriksen et al., 2015; Hesed and Paolisso, 2015; McCubbin et al., \r\n2015). This also provides a stronger foundation to identify the range \r\nof possible responses (Sections 1.6.1, 1.6.2 and 4.4.3) to observed \r\nimpacts and projected risks, as well as critical areas of action to \r\nenhance adaptation pathways (Section 4.4.4). "


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"Recent studies (e.g.,  cited in Sections 4.3.2.1.1, 4.3.2.2, 4.3.2.4.2 \r\nand 4.3.2.4.4) also confirm AR5 conclusions that both developing \r\nand developed countries are exposed and vulnerable to SLR \r\n(high confidence)."


id: a00c7b9ebfc8f35ccbe37818e092ea4b
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"In addition, coastal ecosystem degradation is acknowledged as \r\nanother major non-climatic driver of exposure and vulnerability \r\n(high confidence). The ability of coastal ecosystems to serve as a \r\nbuffer zone between the sea and human assets (settlements and \r\ninfrastructure), and to provide regulating services with respect to \r\nSLR-related coastal hazards (including inundation and salinisation), \r\nis progressively being lost due to coastal squeeze, pollution, and \r\nhabitat and land degradation mainly due to land-use conversion. "


id: a6ebf5d99a13b7b83b39591b36dd9078
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"SLR leads to hazards and impacts that are also partly inherent in \r\nother processes such as starvation of sediments provided by rivers \r\n(Kondolf et al., 2014); permafrost thaw and ice retreat; or the \r\ndisruption of natural dynamics by land reclamation or sediment \r\nmining. Six main concerns for low-lying coasts (Figure 4.13) are: (i) \r\npermanent submergence of land by mean sea levels or mean high \r\ntides; (ii) more frequent or intense flooding; (iii) enhanced erosion; \r\n(iv) loss and change of ecosystems; (v) salinisation of soils, ground "


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"We now better understand the diversity and interactions of the \r\nclimate and non-climate drivers of exposure and vulnerability, as well \r\nas their dynamics over time (Bennett et al., 2016; Duvat et al., 2017). \r\nAs a result, it is now realised how many context-specificities interact \r\n(including geography, economic development, social inequity, power "


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"Figure 4.13 | Overview of the main cascading effects of sea level rise (SLR). Colours of lines (light green and light orange) and boxes are used only for the readability of \r\nthe figure. Sea level hazards are discussed in Section 4.2. The various impacts listed in this figure are discussed in the sections below: Submergence of land and enhanced \r\nflooding (4.3.3.2); Erosion of land and beaches (4.3.3.3); Salinisation (4.3.3.4); Loss of and changes in ecosystems (4.3.3.5); Loss of land and land uses (4.3.3.2); Loss of \r\necosystems services (4.3.3.5); Damage to people and to the built environment (4.3.3.2, 4.3.3.3, 4.3.3.4 and 4.3.3.6); Damage to human activities (4.3.3.6). Non-climate \r\nanthropogenic drivers are discussed in Section 4.3.2 and other climate-related drivers are notably discussed in Section 5.2.1 and 5.2.2."


id: 273da1af2b64dfd731d487c698a5f29e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"Since AR5, a number of continental and global scale coastal exposure \r\nstudies have accounted for sub-national human dynamics such as \r\ncoastward migration or coastal urbanisation. These studies project \r\na population increase in the LECZ (coastal areas below 10  m of \r\nelevation) by 2100 of 85 to 239 million people as compared to only \r\nconsidering national dynamics (Merkens et al., 2016; Section 4.3.2). \r\nUnder the five SSPs and without SLR, the population living in the \r\nLECZ increases from 640-700 million in 2000 to over one billion in \r\n2050 under all SSPs, and then declines to 500-900 million in 2100 \r\nunder all SSPs, except for SSP3 (i.e., a world in which countries will \r\nincreasingly focus on domestic issues, or at best regional ones), for \r\nwhich the coastal population reaches 1.1-1.2  billion (Jones and \r\nO'Neill, 2016; Merkens et al., 2016). "


id: 188b159baee13b932a6fe1c21efab388
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"The AR5 concludes that attribution of coastal changes to SLR is \r\ndifficult because 'the coastal sea level change signal is often small \r\nwhen compared to other processes' (Wong et al., 2014: 375). New \r\nliterature, however, shows that extreme water levels at the coast \r\nare rising due to mean SLR (4.2.2.4 for observations, and 4.3.5 for \r\nprojections), with observable impacts on chronic flooding in some \r\nregions (Sweet and Park, 2014; Strauss et al., 2016)."


id: 60cd9ac2f85427d0fd30925acd15b983
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 14329
content:
"Overall, while the literature suggests that it is still too early to attribute \r\ncoastal impacts to SLR in most of the world's coastal areas, there \r\nis very high confidence that as sea level continues to rise (Sections \r\n4.2.3.2, 4.2.3.3), the frequency, severity and duration of hazards and \r\nrelated impacts increases (Woodruff et al., 2013; Lilai et al., 2016; \r\nVitousek et al., 2017; Sections 4.2.3.4, 6.3.1.3). Detectable impacts \r\nand attributable impacts on shoreline behaviour are expected as \r\nsoon as the second half of the 21st century (Nicholls and Cazenave, \r\n2010; Storlazzi et al., 2018)."


id: 3d6b63d164e0dfa31916e1c26f63d55c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 7978
content:
"footing with uncertainties in socioeconomic development, emission \r\nscenarios, and SLR in determining the magnitude of flood risks in the \r\n21st century (Hinkel et al., 2014). At a European level, the number of \r\npeople living in the 100-year coastal floodplain can vary between \r\n20-70% depending on the different inundation models used and the \r\ninclusion or exclusion of wave set up (Vousdoukas, 2016). Comparing \r\ndamage functions attained in different studies for European cities, \r\nPrahl et al. (2018) find up to four-fold differences in damages for \r\nfloods above 3 m. Another major source of uncertainty relates to \r\nuncertainties in present-day ESL events due to the application of \r\ndifferent extreme value methods (Wahl et al., 2017; Section 4.2.3.4). \r\nWhile all of the uncertainties reported above affected the actual \r\nsize of exposure and flood risk figures, they do not affect the overall \r\nconclusions drawn here. "


id: e16d50f89d9ec25cb8d66722a0f875a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36929
content:
"AR5 (Wong et al., 2014). Similar to the exposure studies, estimates of \r\nfuture flood risk without considering adaptation, as presented in this \r\nparagraph, do not provide a meaningful characterisation of coastal \r\nflood risks, because adaptation and specifically hard protection \r\nis expected to be widespread during the 21st century in urban \r\nareas and cities (high confidence; Section  4.4.3.2.2). Rather, these \r\nestimates need to be seen as illustrations of the scale of adaptation \r\nneeded to offset risk."


id: 93e517fb1c6980725943504145f87973
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23224
content:
"Flood risk studies that have included adaptation find that hard coastal \r\nprotection is generally very effective in reducing flood risks during \r\nthe 21st century even under high SLR scenarios (high confidence; \r\nHinkel et al., 2014; Diaz, 2016; Brown et al., 2018a; Hinkel et al., 2018; \r\nLincke and Hinkel, 2018; Tamura et al., 2019) (Section  4.4.2.2.2). \r\nFor example, Hinkel et al. (2014) find that under 25-123 cm of SLR \r\nin 2100 and all SSPs, hard coastal protection reduces the annual \r\nnumber of people affected by coastal floods and EAD by 2-3 orders \r\nof magnitude. Under high-end SLR and beyond the 21st century, \r\neffectiveness of coastal adaptation is expected to decline rapidly, but \r\nthere is a lack of studies addressing this issue. Furthermore, there is a \r\nlack of studies taking into account responses beyond hard protection \r\nsuch as ecosystem-based adaptation, accommodation, advance and \r\nretreat (Sections 4.4.2). "


id: d8418ca39d2c4b1498751c47c24cc52
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35348
content:
"Recent global assessments of coastal erosion indicate that land losses \r\ncurrently dominate over land gains and that human interventions are \r\na major driver of shoreline changes (Cazenave and Cozannet, 2014; \r\nLuijendijk et al., 2018; Mentaschi et al., 2018). Luijendijk et al. (2018) \r\nestimate that over the 1984-2016 period, about a quarter of the \r\nworld's sandy beaches eroded at rates exceeding 0.5 m yr-1 while \r\nabout 28% accreted. While such global results can be challenged \r\ndue to the relatively large detection threshold used (+-0.5 m yr-1), \r\nthere is growing literature indicating that coastal erosion is occurring \r\nor increasing, e.g. in the Arctic (Barnhart et al., 2014a; Farquharson \r\net al., 2018; Irrgang et al., 2019), Brazil (Amaro et al., 2015), China \r\n(Yang et al., 2017), Colombia (Rangel-Buitrago et al., 2015), India \r\n(Kankara et al., 2018), and along a large number of deltaic systems \r\nworldwide (e.g., Section 4.2.2.4)."


id: c393305426236ea63506a271a3efb9d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31687
content:
"From a global scale perspective, based on AR4 SLR scenarios and \r\nwithout considering the potential benefits of adaptation, Hinkel et al. \r\n(2013b) estimate that about 6000 to 17,000 km2\r\n of land is expected \r\nto be lost during the 21st century due to enhanced coastal erosion \r\nassociated with SLR, in combination with other drivers. This could \r\nlead to a displacement of 1.6-5.3  million people and associated \r\ncumulative costs of 300 to 1000  billion USD (Section  4.4.3.5). \r\nImportantly, these global figures mask the wide diversity of local \r\nsituations; and some literature is emerging on the non-physical and \r\nnon-quantifiable impacts of coastal erosion, for example, on the loss \r\nof recreational grounds and the induced risks to the associated social \r\ndimensions (i.e., how local communities experience coastal erosion \r\nimpacts; Karlsson et al., 2015)."


id: 7b183db47551748addf5cffe6d4a70cd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18857
content:
"With rising sea levels, saline water intrusion into coastal aquifers \r\nand surface waters and soils is expected to be more frequent and \r\nenter farther landwards. Salinisation of groundwater, surface water \r\nand soil resources also increases with land-based drought events, \r\ndecreasing river discharges in combination with water extraction and \r\nSLR (high confidence)."


id: c86ae0b9dcb08336f80d289dfbb155f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32567
content:
"Groundwater volumes will primarily be affected by variations in \r\nprecipitation patterns (Taylor et al., 2013; Jimenez Cisneros et al., \r\n2014), which are expected to increase water stress in small islands \r\n(Holding et al., 2016). While SLR will mostly impact groundwater \r\nquality (Bailey et al., 2016) and in turn exacerbate salinisation \r\ninduced by marine flooding events (Gingerich et al., 2017), it will \r\nalso affect the watertable height (Rotzoll and Fletcher, 2013; Jimenez \r\nCisneros et al., 2014; Masterson et al., 2014; Werner et al., 2017). \r\nIn addition, the natural migration of groundwater lenses inland in \r\nresponse to SLR can also be severely constrained by urbanisation, \r\nfor example, in semi-arid South Texas, USA (Uddameri et al., 2014)."


id: 908b6a42dffbcc994cf382549a6c4fef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22639
content:
"Salinisation is one of the major drivers of soil degradation, with sea \r\nwater intrusion being one of the common causes (Daliakopoulos \r\net al., 2016). In a study in the Ebro Delta, Spain, for instance, soil \r\nsalinity was shown to be directly related to distances to the river, to \r\nthe delta inner border, and to the old river mouth (Genua-Olmedo \r\net al., 2016). Land elevation was the most important variable in \r\nexplaining soil salinity. "


id: ff2d2e4c5e66b554797155f3654c4b6f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42299
content:
"SLR was also shown to decrease organic carbon (Corg) concentrations \r\nand stocks in sediments of salt marshes as reworked marine particles \r\ncontribute with a lower amount of Corg than terrigenous sediments. Corg\r\naccumulation in tropical salt marshes can be as high as in mangroves \r\nand the reduction of Corg stocks by ongoing SLR might cause high CO2\r\nreleases (Ruiz-Fernandez et al., 2018). In many cases attribution to SLR \r\nis missing, but, independent from clear attribution, sea water intrusion \r\nleads to a salinisation of exposed soils with changes in carbon \r\ndynamics (Ruiz-Fernandez et al., 2018) and microbial communities \r\n(Sanchez-Rodriguez et al., 2017), soil enzyme activity and metal toxicity \r\n(Zheng et al., 2017). Water salinity levels in the pores of coastal marsh "


id: ed1356d0989155d35c6647bf63922d72
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39082
content:
"The quality of surface water resources (in estuaries, rivers, reservoirs, \r\netc.) can be affected by the intrusion of saline water, both in a "


id: f9f3c3b20be911b0e077e02e80fdad2a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 41340
content:
"the potential to maintain and even increase the extent of coastal \r\nwetlands globally (Morris et al., 2012; Kirwan et al., 2016; Schuerch \r\net al., 2018). This natural process will however be constrained in areas \r\nwith steep topography or hard engineering structures (i.e., coastal \r\nsqueeze, Section 4.3.2.4). Seawalls, levees and dams can also prevent \r\nthe fluvial and marine transport of sediment to wetland areas and \r\nreduce their resilience further (Giosan, 2014; Tessler et al., 2015; Day \r\net al., 2016; Spencer et al., 2016)."


id: 8c11b2530f6f25f3daf31de9dba5661e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 21810
content:
"soils can become significantly elevated in just one week of flooding by \r\nsea water, which can potentially negatively impact associated microbial \r\ncommunities for significantly longer time periods (McKee et al., 2016). \r\nSLR will also alter the frequency and magnitude of wet/dry periods \r\nand salinity levels in coastal ecosystems, with consequences for the \r\nformation of climate relevant GHGs (Liu et al., 2017b) and therefore \r\nfeedbacks to the climate."


id: 1994bf8e886af3bbc73a1a9c465dcc79
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1711
content:
"Soil salinisation affects agriculture directly with impacts on plant \r\ngermination (Sanchez-Garcia et al., 2017), plant biomass (rice and \r\ncotton) production (Yao et al., 2015), and yield (Genua-Olmedo \r\net al., 2016). Impact on agriculture is especially relevant in low-lying \r\ncoastal areas where agricultural production is a major land use, such \r\nas in river deltas. "


id: 14770f4cacba3e0337e133cad7154018
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 825
content:
"Global coastal wetlands have been reduced by a half since the \r\npre-industrial period due to the impacts of both climatic and \r\nnon-climatic drivers such as flooding, coastal urbanisation, \r\nalterations in drainage and sediment supply. (Sections 4.3.2.3, 5.3.2). \r\nPotentially one of the most important of the eco-morphodynamic \r\nfeedbacks allowing for relatively stable morphology under SLR is the \r\nability of marsh and mangrove systems to enhance the trapping of \r\nsediment, which in turn allows tidal wetlands to grow and increase \r\nthe production and accumulation of organic material (Kirwan and \r\nMegonigal, 2013). When ecosystem health is maintained and \r\nsufficient sediment exists to support their growth, this particular \r\nfeedback has generally allowed marshes and mangrove systems to \r\nbuild vertically at rates equal to or greater than SLR up to the present \r\nday (Kirwan et al., 2016; Woodroffe et al., 2016). "


id: 881efab35882b612fcdc6b4663096674
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21099
content:
"While there is little literature on the extent to which SLR specifically \r\nwill affect coastal protection by coastal and marine ecosystems, it \r\nis estimated that SLR may reduce this ecosystem service (limited \r\nevidence, high agreement) through the above-described impacts on \r\nthe ecosystems themselves, and in combination with the impacts of \r\nother climate-related changes to the ocean (e.g.,  ocean warming \r\nand acidification; Sections 5.3.1 to 5.3.6, 5.4.1). Wave attenuation \r\nby coral reefs, for example, is estimated to be negatively affected \r\nin the near future by changes in coral reefs' structural complexity \r\nmore than by SLR (Harris et al., 2018); changes in mean and ESL \r\nevents will rather add a layer of stress. Beck et al. (2018) estimate \r\nthat under RCP8.5 by 2100, a 1  m loss in coral reefs' height will \r\nincrease the global area flooded under a 100-year storm event by \r\n116% compared to today, against +66% with no reef loss."


id: 6a57af4841986d22473240645f55e23c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"SLR may significantly affect tourism and recreation through impacts \r\non landscapes (e.g., beaches), cultural features (e.g., Marzeion and \r\nLevermann, 2014; Fang et al., 2016), and critical transportation \r\ninfrastructures such as harbours and airports (Monioudi et al., 2018). \r\nCoastal areas' future tourism and recreation attractiveness will "


id: 18f998334cd4a508d6373c9cd7669c25
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1609
content:
"Social values refer to what people consider of critical importance \r\nabout the places in which they live, and range from material to \r\nimmaterial things (assets, beliefs, etc.; Hurlimann et al., 2014; Rouse \r\net al., 2017). Consideration of social values offers an opportunity \r\nto address a wider perspective on impacts on human systems, for \r\nexample, complementary to quantitative assessments of health \r\nimpacts (e.g.,  loss of source of calories and food insecurity; Keim, \r\n2010). This also encompasses immaterial dimensions, such as \r\nthreats to cultural heritage (Marzeion and Levermann, 2014; Fatoric \r\nand Seekamp, 2017a), socialising activities (Karlsson et al., 2015), \r\nintegration of marginalised groups (Maldonado, 2015) and cultural \r\necosystem services (Fish et al., 2016), and provides an opportunity to "


id: 17f83ab52746beb4058c8b783fd55226
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Rather than revisiting the AR5 and O'Neill et al. (2017) assessments \r\nfrom the particular perspective of risk related to SLR and for the \r\nglobal scale, this section provides a complementary perspective by \r\nassessing risks for specific geographies (resource-rich coastal cities, \r\nurban atoll islands, large tropical agricultural deltas and selected \r\nArctic communities), based on the methodological advances below."


id: 77fc80d4c29e4390dc74b1be07e2ddc0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18316
content:
"Scale of analysis and geographical scope - To date, the RFCs and \r\nassociated burning embers have been developed at a global scale \r\n(Oppenheimer et al., 2014; Gattuso et al., 2015; O'Neill et al., 2017) "


id: c1e7bb3af2d867c87b834dcf7bc8e210
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31415
content:
"The main reason is the difficulty of projecting the influence on some \r\nfactors such as human interventions to the end of the century."


id: 8b17103c528bc553fca99cdae804c0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21635
content:
"and do not address the spatial variability of risk highlighted in this \r\nreport (Sections 4.3.2.7, 4.3.4, 5.3.7, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Box 4.1). \r\nIn addition, assessments usually identify risks either for global human \r\ndimensions (e.g., to people, livelihood, breakdown of infrastructures, \r\nbiodiversity, global economy, etc.; IPCC, 2014; Oppenheimer et al., \r\n2014; O'Neill et al., 2017) or for ecosystems and ecosystem services \r\n(Gattuso et al., 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) (Section 5.3.7). \r\nThis section moves the focus from the global to more local scales \r\nby considering four generic categories of low-lying coastal areas \r\n(Figure  4.3, Panel B): selected Arctic communities remote from \r\nregions of rapid GIA, large tropical agricultural deltas, urban atoll \r\nislands, and resource-rich coastal cities. Each of these categories is \r\ninformed by several real-world case studies."


id: 85b31a5d97f9613b959f3e41fdf9479c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20666
content:
"Resource-rich coastal cities (SM4.3.8.1, Panel B in Figure 4.3) - \r\nResource-rich coastal cities considered in this analysis are Shanghai, \r\nNew York (see Box 4.1 for further details and references on Shanghai \r\nand NYC), and Rotterdam (Brinke et al., 2010; Hinkel et al., 2018). \r\nHigh, and in many cases, growing population density and total "


id: 5b63a38c99876b1a4d3ae34a10b51c84
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13321
content:
"Accelerating permafrost thaw is promoting rapid erosion of ice-rich \r\nsediments, e.g.,  at Bykovsky (Myers, 2005; Lantuit et al., 2011; \r\nVanderlinden et al., 2018) and Tuktoyaktuk (Lamoureux et al., 2015; \r\nFord et al., 2016a). Related to this, Kivalina, Shishmaref, Shingle \r\nPoint, Tuktoyaktuk, and parts of the Lena delta (less so for Bykovsky) \r\nare already facing high risk of flooding. Shishmaref, for example, \r\nexperienced 10 flooding events between 1973 and 2015 that resulted \r\nin emergency declarations (Bronen and Chapin, 2013; Lamoureux \r\net al., 2015; Irrgang et al., 2019). There is however no evidence of \r\nsalinisation in the selected communities, but brackish water flooding \r\nof the outer Mackenzie Delta caused by a 1999 storm surge (a rare \r\nevent due to upwelling ahead of the storm) led to widespread die-off \r\nof vegetation with negative ecosystem impacts (Pisaric et al., 2011; \r\nKokelj et al., 2012)."


id: 7944a0b2d29260a82333a8bd931d7b17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18530
content:
"Permafrost thaw is already accelerating due to increasing ground \r\ntemperatures that weaken the mechanical stability of frozen ground \r\n(Section  3.4.2.2). Arctic SLR and sea surface warming have the \r\npotential to substantially contribute to this thawing (Forbes, 2011; \r\nBarnhart et al., 2014b; Lamoureux et al., 2015; Fritz et al., 2017). \r\nAn additional factor unique to the polar regions is the decrease \r\nin seasonal sea ice extent in the Arctic (Sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.2), \r\nwhich together with a lengthening open water season, provides less \r\nprotection from storm impacts, particularly later in the year when \r\nstorms are prevalent (Forbes, 2011; Lantuit et al., 2011; Barnhart \r\net al., 2014a; Melvin et al., 2017; Fang et al., 2018; Forbes, 2019) and \r\ntherefore reduces the physical protection of the land (Section 6.3.1.3). "


id: fc939c961d4083650499b8f357e0221e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41806
content:
"Especially in the Arctic, anthropogenic drivers in recent decades \r\nresulted in the induced settlement of indigenous peoples in \r\nmarginalised climate-sensitive communities (Ford et al., 2016b) \r\nand the construction of infrastructure in nearshore areas, with the \r\nassumption of stable coastlines. This resulted in increased exposure \r\nto coastal hazards. Coastal erosion is already a major problem in \r\nall of the case studies, where space for building is usually limited. "


id: c74ec8cab61ad708deb2d273b4eb5afa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32384
content:
"under all SLR scenarios. Proactive relocation can indeed compensate \r\nfor the increasing extent of coastal flooding and associated damages \r\n(SM4.3.8.3). When taken to the extreme, relocation could lead to the \r\nelimination of risk in situ, for example in the case of the relocation \r\nof the full population of urban atoll islands either elsewhere in \r\nthe country (e.g., on another island) or abroad (i.e.,  international \r\nmigration). This is an extreme situation where it is hard to distinguish \r\nwhether the measure is an impact of SLR (and ocean change more \r\nbroadly), for example, displacement, or an adaptation solution. In \r\naddition, relocation of people displaces pressure to destination areas, \r\nwith a potential increase of risk for the latter. In other words, the \r\nbroader 'coastal retreat' category (Section 4.4.2.6) raises the issue \r\nof the 'limits to adaptation', which is not represented in Figure 4.3. "


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"Protection reduces coastal risk and impacts by blocking the inland propagation and other effects of mean or extreme sea levels (ESL). \r\nThis includes: i) hard protection such as dikes, seawalls, breakwaters, barriers and barrages to protect against flooding, erosion and \r\nsalt water intrusion (Nicholls, 2018), ii) sediment-based protection such as beach and shore nourishment, dunes (also referred to as \r\nsoft structures), and iii) ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) (see below). The three subcategories are often applied in combination as \r\nso-called hybrid measures. Examples are a marsh green-belt in front of a sea wall, or a sea wall especially designed to include niches \r\nfor habitat formation (Coombes et al., 2015)."


id: 5c00371826dfefb8985af842687aa6a9
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"Accommodation includes diverse biophysical and institutional responses that mitigate coastal risk and impacts by reducing the \r\nvulnerability of coastal residents, human activities, ecosystems and the built environment, thus enabling the habitability of coastal \r\nzones despite increasing levels of hazard occurrence. Accommodation measures for erosion and flooding include building codes, raising \r\nhouse elevation (e.g., on stilts), lifting valuables to higher floors and floating houses and gardens (Trang, 2016). Accommodation \r\nmeasures for salinity intrusion include changes in land use (e.g., rice to brackish/salt shrimp aquaculture) or changes to salt tolerant \r\ncrop varieties. Institutional accommodation responses include EWS, emergency planning, insurance schemes and setback zones (Nurse \r\net al., 2014; Wong et al., 2014)."


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"Advance creates new land by building seaward, reducing coastal risks for the hinterland and the newly elevated land. This includes land\r\nreclamation above sea levels by land filling with pumped sand or other fill material, planting vegetation with the specific intention to \r\nsupport natural accretion of land and surrounding low areas with dikes, termed polderisation, which also requires drainage and often \r\npumping systems (Wang et al., 2014; Donchyts et al., 2016)."


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"Retreat reduces coastal risk by moving exposed people, assets and human activities out of the coastal hazard zone. This includes the \r\nfollowing three forms: i) Migration, which is the voluntary permanent or semi-permanent movement by a person at least for one year \r\n(Adger et al., 2014). ii) Displacement, which refers to the involuntary and unforeseen movement of people due to environment-related "


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"retreat may or may not be meaningfully considered to be adaptation \r\n(Hinkel et al., 2018). Responses that address the causes of climate \r\nchange, such as mitigating GHGs or geoengineering temperature and \r\nsea level responses to emissions fall beyond the scope of this chapter, \r\nand are addressed in SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). In coastal \r\nareas where anthropogenic subsidence contributes to relative SLR, \r\nanother important type of response is the management of subsidence \r\nby, for instance, restricting ground fluid abstraction. Although this \r\ntype of measure is considered in the risk assessment developed in \r\nSection 4.3.4, it is not assessed here due to a lack of space."


id: 677b92eeec34c1e2ae76be4a7ac654f4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"Following earlier IPCC Reports Protection, Retreat and \r\nAccommodation responses to SLR and its impacts are distinguished \r\nbetween (Nicholls et al., 2007; Wong et al., 2014), and Advance is \r\nadded as a fourth type of response that consists in building seaward \r\nand upward (Box 4.3). Advance had not received much attention in \r\nthe climate change literature but plays an important role in coastal \r\ndevelopment across the world (e.g.,  Institution of Civil Engineers, \r\n2010; Lee, 2014; Donchyts et al., 2016). The broader term response \r\nis used here instead of adaptation, because some responses such as "


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"Observed coastal responses are rarely responses to climate-change \r\ninduced SLR only, but also to relative SLR caused by land subsidence \r\nas well as current coastal risks and many socioeconomic factors and \r\nrelated hazards. As a consequence, coastal responses have been "


id: eecef702520aa06d1fb3759de7f51cb2
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"in coastal Bangladesh. Gittman et al. (2015) estimate that 14% of \r\nthe total US coastline has been armoured, with New Orleans being \r\nan example of an area below sea level dependent on extensive \r\nengineered protection (Kates et al., 2006; Rosenzweig and Solecki, \r\n2014; Cooper et al., 2016). Defences built and raised for tsunami \r\nprotection, such as post-2011 in Japan (Raby et al., 2015), also \r\nprovide protection against SLR."


id: f282d1a9fea7b46392c7e1137a3316ea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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"practised for centuries, and there are many experiences specifically in \r\nplaces that have subsided up to several metres due to earthquakes \r\nor anthropogenic ground fluid abstraction in the last century that \r\nresponding to climate-change induced SLR can draw upon (Esteban \r\net al., 2019). Finally, in practise, many responses are hybrid, applying \r\ncombinations of protection, accommodation, retreat, advance and EbA. "


id: 293fabf6c632bbb0c342772d3d1c408b
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"Since AR5, the literature on SLR responses has grown significantly. It \r\nis assessed in this section for the five above-described broad types of \r\nresponses in terms of the following six criteria:"


id: 662b0636a24f1c30058a14e228804a22
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"The application of sediment-based protection measures also has \r\na long history, offering multiple benefits in terms of enhancing \r\nsafety, recreation and natural systems (JSCE, 2000; Dean, 2002; \r\nHanson et al., 2002; Cooke et al., 2012). About 24% of the world's \r\nsandy beaches are currently eroding by rates faster than 0.5 m yr-1\r\n(Luijendijk et al., 2018). In the USA, Europe and Australia, these \r\nresponses are often driven by the recreational value of beaches and \r\nthe high economic benefits associated with beach tourism. More \r\nrecently, sediment-based measures are implemented as effective \r\nand yet flexible measures to address SLR (Kabat et al., 2009) and \r\nexperiments are being conducted with innovative decadal scale \r\napplication of sediments such as the sand engine in the Netherlands \r\n(Stive et al., 2013). "


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"There is high confidence that most major upgrades in defences \r\nhappen after coastal disasters (Box  4.1). Dikes were raised and \r\nreienforced after the devastating coastal flood of 1953 in the \r\nNetherlands and the UK, and in 1962 in Germany. In New Orleans, \r\ninvestments in the order of 15 billion USD, including a major storm \r\nsurge barrier, followed Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (Fischetti, 2015), \r\nand in New York the Federal Government made available 16 billion \r\nUSD for disaster recovery and adaptation after Superstorm Sandy \r\nin 2012 (NYC, 2015). Examples in which SLR has been considered \r\nproactively in the planning process include SLR safety margins in, for \r\nexample, the UK, Germany and France, upgrading defences according \r\nto cost-benefit analysis in the Netherlands, and SLR guidance in the \r\nUSA (USACE, 2011)."


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"Coastal protection through hard measures is widespread around \r\nthe world, although it is difficult to provide estimates on how many \r\npeople benefit from them. Currently, at least 20  million people \r\nliving below normal high tides are protected by hard structures (and \r\ndrainage) in countries such as Belgium, Canada, China, Germany, \r\nItaly, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Thailand, the UK, and the \r\nUSA (Nicholls, 2010). Many more people living above high tides are \r\nalso protected against ESL by hard structures in major cities around \r\nthe world. There is a concentration of these measures in northwest \r\nEurope and East Asia, although extensive defences are also found in \r\nand around many coastal cities and deltas. For example, large scale \r\ncoastal protection exists in Vancouver (Canada), Alexandria (Egypt) \r\nand Keta (Ghana; Nairn et al., 1999) and 6000 km of polder dikes "


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"There is medium evidence and medium agreement on the costs of \r\nhard protection. Data on the costs of hard defences is only available \r\nfor few countries and unit costs estimated from this data vary \r\nsubstantially depending on building/fill material used, labour cost, \r\nurban versus rural settings, hydraulic loads, etc. (Jonkman et al., 2013; \r\nLenk et al., 2017; Aerts, 2018; Nicholls et al., 2019). In general, there \r\nhas been limited systematic data collection across sites, although \r\nuseful national guidance does exist in some cases (Environment \r\nAgency, 2015). Defences depend on good maintenance to remain \r\neffective. For some types of infrastructure such as surge barriers, \r\nmaintenance costs are poorly described and hence more uncertain \r\n(Nicholls et al., 2007). Protection-based adaptation to saltwater \r\nintrusion is more complex than adaptation to flooding and erosion, \r\nand there is less experience to draw upon. "


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"Based on these unit cost estimates, and different assumptions \r\non future protection, global annual protection costs have been \r\nestimated to be 12-71  billion USD considering coastal dikes only \r\n(Hinkel et al., 2014) and about 40-170 billion USD yr-1 considering \r\ncoastal dikes, river dikes and storm surge barriers, under RCP2.6, and \r\nabout 25-200 billion USD yr-1 considering coastal dikes only (Tamura \r\net al. 2019) under RCP8.5. If protection is widely practised through \r\nthe 21st century, the bulk of the costs will be maintenance rather \r\nthan capital costs (Nicholls et al., 2019)."


id: 71f046dd915a6b2ebe8c74ef79c0826f
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"Sediment-based measures are generally costed as the unit cost of \r\nsand (or gravel) delivery multiplied by the volumetric demand. Unit \r\ncosts range from 3-21 USD m-3 sand, with some high outlier costs \r\nin, for example, the UK, South Africa and New Zealand (Linham \r\net al., 2010; Aerts, 2018). Costs are small where sources of sand are \r\nplentiful and close to the sites of demand. Costs are further reduced \r\nby shoreface nourishment approaches. The Netherlands maintains its \r\nentire open coast with large-scale shore nourishment (Mulder et al., \r\n2011) and the innovative sand engine has been implemented as a \r\nfull-scale decadal experiment (Stive et al., 2013). The capital costs \r\nfor dunes are similar to beach nourishment, although placement and \r\nplanting vegetation may raise costs. Maintenance costs vary from \r\nalmost nothing to several million USD km-1, although costs are \r\nusually at the lower end of this range (Environment Agency, 2015)."


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"in opposition because they fear that sand mining destroys coastal \r\nhabitat and livelihood prospects (Gonzalez-Correa et al., 2008). "


id: 465c9c0762336d2a6ea133ab18f711f0
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"When space is limited (e.g.,  in an urban setting), co-benefits can \r\nbe generated through multi-functional hard flood defences, which \r\ncombine flood protection with other urban functions, such as car \r\nparks, buildings, roads or recreational spaces into one multifunctional \r\nstructure (Stalenberg, 2013; van Loon-Steensma and Vellinga, 2014). \r\nAn important co-benefit of sediment-based protection, such as beach \r\nnourishment and dune management, is that it preserves beach and \r\nassociated environments, as well as tourism (Everard et al., 2010; \r\nHinkel et al., 2013a; Stive et al., 2013). "


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"An associated governance challenge is ensuring the effective \r\nmaintenance of coastal protection. Ineffective maintenance has \r\ncontributed to many coastal disasters in the past, such as in \r\nNew Orleans (Andersen, 2007). AR5 highlighted that effective \r\nmaintenance is challenging in a small island context due to a lack \r\nof adequate funds, policies and technical skills (Nurse et al., 2014). \r\nIn some countries in which coastal defence systems have a long \r\nhistory, effective governance arrangements for maintenance, such as \r\nthe Water Boards in the Netherlands, have emerged. In Bangladesh, \r\nwhere Dutch-like polders were introduced in the 1960s, maintenance \r\nhas been a challenge due to shifts in multi-level governance \r\nstructures associated with independence, national policy priorities \r\nand donor involvement (Dewan et al., 2015)."


id: e483cdfc6e7416c60aba2935a9276880
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"Seabed dredging of sand and gravel can have negative impacts on \r\nmarine ecosystems such as seagrass meadows and corals (Erftemeijer \r\nand Lewis III, 2006; Erftemeijer et al., 2012). Nourishment practices \r\non sandy beaches have also been shown to have drawbacks for local \r\necosystems if local habitat factors are not taken into consideration \r\nwhen planning and implementing nourishment and maintenance \r\n(Speybroeck et al., 2006). A further emerging issue is beach material \r\nscarcity mainly driven by demand of sand and gravel for construction, \r\nbut also for beach and shore nourishment (Peduzzi, 2014; Torres \r\net al., 2017), which makes sourcing the increasing volumes of \r\nbeach materials required to sustain beaches in the face of SLR more \r\nexpensive and challenging (Roelvink, 2015)."


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"Reviews and comparative case studies confirm findings of AR5 that \r\ngovernance challenges are amongst the most common hindrance to \r\nimplementing coastal measures (Ekstrom and Moser, 2014; Hinkel \r\net al., 2018). One main issue to resolve is conflicting stakeholder \r\ninterests. This includes conflicts between those favouring protection \r\nand those being negatively affected by adaptation measures. \r\nIn Catalonia, for example, the tourism sector welcomes beach \r\nnourishment because it provides direct benefits, whereas those \r\ndependent upon natural resources (e.g., fishermen) are increasingly "


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"during the 21st century (Schuerch et al., 2018). Diaz (2016), who \r\nincludes the cost of wetland loss, using a simpler wetland model, \r\nfinds that both protection and retreat reduce the global net present \r\ncosts of SLR by a factor of seven as compared to no adaptation \r\n(applying a discount rate of 4%) under 21st century SLR of 0.3-1.3 m \r\nand SSP2. There is no global study that has considered social costs \r\nand benefits of responses (e.g., health, beach amenity, etc.) or looked \r\nat the economics of accommodate, retreat and advance responses."


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"At local scales, a large number of economic assessments of response \r\noptions are available but mostly in the grey literature and again with \r\na focus on hard and sediment-based protection. Similar to the global \r\nstudies, hard protection is generally found to be economically efficient \r\nfor urban and densely populated areas such as New York, USA (Aerts \r\net al., 2014) and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (Scussolini et al., 2017). \r\nBoth global and local studies show that sediment-based protection, \r\nsuch as beach nourishment is economically efficient in areas of \r\nintensive tourism development due to the large revenues generated \r\nwithin this sector (Rigall-I-Torrent et al., 2011; Hinkel et al., 2013a). "


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"Since AR5 there has been growing recognition of the value of \r\nconserving existing coastal ecosystems, and where possible restoring \r\nthem, for the flood protection and multiple other benefits they \r\nprovide (Temmerman et al., 2013; Arkema et al., 2015). In parallel, \r\nEbA measures are increasingly being incorporated and required \r\nwithin national plans, strategies and targets (Lo, 2016), international \r\nadaptation funding mechanisms, such as the Adaptation Fund (AF; \r\ne.g., in Sri Lanka and India; Epple et al., 2016), and national natural \r\ncapital valuations (Beck and Lange, 2016). Given their relative \r\nnovelty, there is widespread interest in building and collecting \r\nknowledge of EbA implementation case-studies and examples "


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"Relative to hard adaptation measures whose global distribution \r\nis not known in detail (Scussolini et al., 2015), the current global \r\ndistribution of coastal ecosystems is well-studied (e.g.,  for \r\nsaltmarshes and mangroves, respectively; Giri et al., 2011; Mcowen "


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"Figure 4.14 | Economic robustness of coastal protection under sea level rise (SLR) scenarios from 0.3-2.0 m, the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and discount \r\nrates of up to 6%. Coastlines are coloured according to the percentage of scenarios under which the benefit-cost ratio of protection (reduced flood risk divided by the cost \r\nof protection) are above 1. Source: Lincke and Hinkel (2018). "


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"(Table 4.7). Meanwhile, coastal communities around the globe are \r\nalready implementing EbA responses at local scales, with emphasis \r\non community participation and ownership and local priorities, needs \r\nand capacities (Reid, 2016; see Section 4.4.4.4). "


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"The conservation of coral reefs and other coastal habitats may \r\nalso entail substantial opportunity costs because alternative uses \r\nof this land, such as through agricultural production, industry and \r\nsettlements, are generally of high economic value (Stewart et al., \r\n2003; Balmford et al., 2004; Adams et al., 2011; Hunt, 2013). The high \r\nvalue of these alternative uses are the reason why globally, coastal \r\necosystems are amongst the ecosystems that face the highest rates \r\nof anthropogenic destruction, with estimated annual losses of 1-3% \r\nof mangroves area, 2-5% seagrass area and 4-9% corals (Duarte \r\net al., 2013). Conserving these areas means reversing these trends."


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"EbA has been used as an integral part of some retreat, advance \r\nand accommodation responses. For example, on coastlines where \r\nhigh-risk properties are relocated inland, space can be made for \r\necosystem restoration to enhance natural biodiversity and provide \r\ncoastal protection (French, 2006; Coastal Protection and Restoration \r\nAuthority of Louisiana, 2017). There are also examples of ecosystem \r\nrestoration to advance coastlines and build land elevation (Chung, \r\n2006). EbA can also be an element of accommodation responses by, \r\nfor example, restoring or creating marshes to provide space for flood \r\nwater (Temmerman et al., 2013). "


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"Under the right conditions, and to some extent, EbA measures are \r\nfree of maintenance costs, because they respond and adapt to \r\nchanges in their coastal environment. However, maintenance can \r\nbecome important in the aftermath of damage by storms or human \r\naction, for example, when wetlands and reefs can be damaged by \r\nhigh winds, waves and surges, or affected by dredging operations \r\n(Smith III et al., 2009; Puotinen et al., 2016). At present, there is \r\nlimited evidence about the conditions under which EbA measures \r\ncan self-adapt and when they require human intervention to recover. "


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"While there are projections available of ecosystem responses \r\nto climate change and SLR (Section  4.3.3), to date, there are no \r\nlarge-scale projections available on the future extent of EbA. However, \r\nseveral coastal nations, particularly Small Island Developing States \r\n(SIDS) explicitly advocate EbA measures as a means to address future \r\ncoastal hazard and SLR concerns. Based on Nationally Determined \r\nContributions (NDCs) submitted to the United Nations Framework \r\nConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), more than 30 SIDS cite \r\nEbA as a preferred SLR response, with mangrove planting being the \r\nmost common measure (Wong, 2018). "


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"There is limited evidence and low agreement on the costs of \r\necosystem-based measures to make generally valid estimations \r\nof the unit costs across large spatial scales. The total cost of an \r\necosystem-based measure includes capital costs, maintenance costs, \r\nthe cost of land and, in some situations, permitting costs (Bilkovic, \r\n2017). The costs of restoring and maintaining coastal habitats depend \r\non coastal setting, habitat type and project conditions. In general, unit \r\nrestoration costs are lowest for mangroves, higher for salt marshes and \r\noyster reefs, and highest for seagrass beds and coral reefs (Table 4.8)."


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"The effectiveness of EbA measures, however, varies considerably \r\ndepending on storm, wetland, reef and landscape parameters (Koch \r\net al., 2009; Loder et al., 2009; Wamsley et al., 2010; Pinsky et al., \r\n2013; Quataert et al., 2015), which makes it difficult to extrapolate \r\nthe physical and economic benefits across geographies. Depending \r\non these parameters, rates of surge attenuation can vary between \r\n5-70 cm km-1 (Krauss et al., 2009; Vuik et al., 2015). "


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"effective solution. Like any other feature that interacts with coastal \r\nprocesses, natural wetlands and reefs can increase flooding in some \r\ninstances, for example, due to the redistribution or acceleration of \r\nflows in channels within a wetland system (Marsooli et al., 2016), \r\nor an increase in infragravity wave (i.e., surface gravity waves with \r\nfrequencies lower than wind waves) energy behind a reef (Roeber \r\nand Bricker, 2015)."


id: d1807abb5c9f7511ae3f526ab4c82621
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"Critical gaps remain in our understanding about those parameters \r\nthat together affect the success of ecosystem-based measures \r\nincluding choice of species and restoration techniques, lead time, \r\nnatural variability and residual risk, temperature, salinity, wave \r\nenergy and tidal range (Smith, 2006; Stiles Jr, 2006). Among reasons \r\ncommonly cited for the failure of mangrove restoration projects are \r\npoor choice of mangrove species, planting in the wrong tidal zones \r\nand in areas of excessive wave energy (Primavera and Esteban, 2008; \r\nBayraktarov et al., 2016; Kodikara et al., 2017)."


id: 4eb99aa002820ee965d4fbd5313625cb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"The coastal protection benefits of natural ecosystems are increasingly \r\nbeing recognised within international discourse and national coastal \r\nadaptation, resilience and sustainable development plans and \r\nstrategies (Section  4.4.2.3.1). In general, obtaining permits for EbA \r\nremains more difficult compared to established hard protection \r\nmeasures, in places like the USA (Bilkovic, 2017). However, there are \r\nexamples of instruments specifically tailored to retain the protective \r\nfunction of EbA (Borges et al., 2009; Government of India, 2018). The \r\nLiving Shorelines Regulations of the state government of Maryland \r\nin the USA (Maryland DEP, 2013), for instance, requires that private \r\nproperties must include marsh creation or other non-structural \r\nmeasures when stabilising their shorelines, unless a waiver is obtained."


id: 6ba08aad75aa3bf51f77e188602e6e31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"There are an increasing number of public and private financial \r\nmechanisms and policy instruments to encourage the use and \r\nimplementation of EbA measures (Colgan et al., 2017; Sutton-Grier \r\net al., 2018). For example, a regulation by the Federal Emergency \r\nManagement Agency (FEMA) of the USA, allows proponents of hazard \r\nmitigation projects, such as state, territorial and local governments, to \r\ntake into account the co-benefits of EbA when assessing benefit-cost \r\nratios of FEMA-funded recovery projects (FEMA, 2015). International \r\nguidelines are being developed for designing and implementing EbA \r\nmeasures, with the intention to support wider implementation of \r\nthese responses (Hardaway Jr and Duhring, 2010; Van Slobbe et al., \r\n2013; Van Wesenbeeck et al., 2017; Bridges et al., 2018)."


id: 46ca6c450771e5218f2eb169c42ee960
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"There is high confidence that ecosystem-based measures provide \r\nmultiple co-benefits such as sequestering carbon (Siikamaki et al., \r\n2012; Hamilton and Friess, 2018), income from tourism (Carr and \r\nMendelsohn, 2003; Spalding et al., 2017), enhancing coastal fishery \r\nproductivity (Carrasquilla-Henao and Juanes, 2017; Taylor et al., \r\n2018), improving water quality (Coen et al., 2007; Lamb et al., 2017), \r\nproviding raw material for food, medicine, fuel and construction \r\n(Hussain and Badola, 2010; Uddin et al., 2013), and a range of \r\nintangible and cultural benefits (Scyphers et al., 2015) that help \r\nimprove the resilience of communities vulnerable to sea level hazards \r\n(Sutton-Grier et al., 2015)."


id: 6659273402e92c8a06c606edf62c3b36
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"There is limited evidence regarding the economic efficiency of \r\nEbA, mainly due to the low agreement about EbA effectiveness \r\n(Section 4.4.2.3.2) and costs (Section 4.4.2.3.2). A study of coastal \r\nprotection measures on the Gulf of Mexico coastline, USA, estimated \r\nthat EbA measures have average benefit-cost ratios above 3.5 for \r\n2030 flood risk conditions, assuming a discount rate of 2% (Reguero \r\net al., 2018b; see Section 4.4.2.3.2). This study also finds that EbA are \r\nnearly four times more cost-efficient along developed coastlines as \r\ncompared to conservation-priority areas because protection benefits \r\nare higher in the former case due to the level of asset exposure."


id: 5fe6dae4f9c3a7af0d6043fb59306ebb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14184
content:
"In comparison to hard structures like seawalls, EbA measures, \r\nparticularly coastal wetlands, require more land (The Royal Society \r\nScience Policy Centre, 2014), and competition for land is often why the \r\necosystems have declined in the first place (4.4.2.3.1). On developed \r\ncoasts, this land is often not available. In such cases, hybrid measures \r\nthat either combine EbA measures with structural measures like \r\nmangrove forests in front of dikes (Dasgupta et al., 2019), or build \r\necological enhancements into engineered structures can provide an "


id: e2e828c28cf08cecc437ebb901f26212
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37219
content:
"Advance has a long history in most areas where there are dense \r\ncoastal populations and a shortage of land (very high confidence). \r\nThis includes land reclamation through polders around the southern \r\nNorth Sea (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and England) and "


id: 20908e5014efc6ee4d770296790a6f59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"of the coastal floodplain (Li et al., 2014; Nadzir et al., 2014; Wang \r\net al., 2014; Chee et al., 2017). In China, for example, about 50% of \r\ncoastal ecosystems have been lost due to land reclamation, leading \r\nto a range of impacts such as loss of biodiversity, decline of bird \r\nspecies and fisheries resources, reduced water purification, and more \r\nfrequent harmful algal blooms (Wang et al., 2014). For example, the \r\nreclamation of about 29,000 ha of land in Saemangeum, Republic of \r\nKorea, in 2006, has led to a decrease in shorebird numbers by over \r\n30% in two years, probably caused by mortality (Moores et al., 2016). \r\nInadvertently, historic land reclamation through polderisation may \r\nhave enhanced exposure and risk to coastal flooding by creating new \r\npopulated floodplains, but this has not been evaluated."


id: cb01fd778c5eb214e1b9e0583345508
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"China (Wang et al., 2014), which coincides with regions where \r\nthere is extensive hard protection in place (Section 4.4.2.4). Land \r\nreclamation has also taken place in all major coastal cities to some \r\ndegree, even if only for the creation of port and harbour areas by \r\nraising coastal flats above normal tidal levels through sediment \r\ninfill. On some steep coasts, where there is little flat land, such as the \r\nHong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, material from \r\nelevated areas has been excavated to create fill material to build \r\nland out into the sea."


id: 8d08d224089de66bd5479d746317cee6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"Globally, it is estimated that about 33,700  km2\r\n of land has been \r\ngained from the sea during the last 30 years (about 50% more than \r\nhas been lost), with the biggest gains being due to land reclamation \r\nin places like Dubai, Singapore and China (Wang et al., 2014; \r\nDonchyts et al., 2016). In Shanghai alone, 590 km2\r\n land has been \r\nreclaimed during the same period (Sengupta et al., 2018). In Lagos, \r\n25 km2 of new land is currently being reclaimed (www.ekoatlantic.\r\ncom). Land reclamation is also popular in some small island settings. \r\nThe Maldives has recently increased the land area of their capital \r\nregion by constructing a new island called Hulhumale, which has \r\nbeen built 60 cm higher than the normal island elevation of 1.5 m, in \r\norder to take into account future SLR (Hinkel et al., 2018)."


id: 475815090ec1db48670e2ca13536ac4b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Land reclamation raises equity issues with regards to access \r\nand distribution of the new land created, specifically due to the \r\npolitical economy associated with high coastal land values, and \r\nthe involvement of private capital and interests (Bisaro and Hinkel, \r\n2018), but this has hardly been explored in the literature."


id: c4512ce607aaa7ac545e475b12ff9081
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31828
content:
"There is limited evidence on the efficiency of advance responses in \r\nthe scientific literature. Benefit-cost ratios of land reclamation can \r\nbe very high in urban areas due to high land and real estate prices \r\n(Bisaro and Hinkel, 2018)."


id: 6143030d0ccf425a94e8a5cb9fa5173f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 14412
content:
"Advance was not primarily a response to SLR in the past, but due to \r\na range of drivers, including land scarcity, population pressure and \r\nextreme events, future advance measures are expected to become \r\nmore integrated with coastal adaptation and might even be seen \r\nas an opportunity to support and fund adaptation in some cases \r\n(Linham and Nicholls, 2010; RIBA and ICE, 2010; Nicholls, 2018). \r\nWhile there is no literature on this topic, significant further advance \r\nmeasures can be expected in land scarce situations, such as found in \r\nChina, Japan and Singapore, in coming decades."


id: 9172abaa1dad48304e009a08a446c337
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22799
content:
"There is a high agreement that accommodation is a core element of \r\nadaptation, and it is taking place on various scales based on measures \r\nsuch as flood proofing and raising buildings, implementing drainage \r\nsystems, land use changes as well as EWS, emergency planning, \r\nsetback zones and insurance schemes. However, no literature is \r\navailable that summarises observed accommodation worldwide. \r\nThere is low evidence of accommodation occurring directly as a \r\nconsequence of SLR but high evidence of accommodation measures \r\nbeing implemented in response to coastal hazards such as coastal \r\nflooding, salinisation and other sea-borne hazards such as cyclones. "


id: 33b6f114871d0379560a84b63bc83b77
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"Contrary to protection measures, little systematic monetary \r\ninformation is available about costs of advance measures, specifically \r\nnot in the peer reviewed literature. The costs of land reclamation are \r\nextremely variable and depend on the unit cost of fill versus the \r\nvolumetric requirement to raise the land. Hence, filling shallow areas \r\nis preferred on a cost basis."


id: 9cc7f51f42a31599607c683c1300ebf1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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content:
"Flood proofing may include the use of building designs and materials \r\nwhich make structures less vulnerable to flood damages and/or \r\nprevent floodwaters from entering structures. Examples include \r\nfloating houses in Asia, such as in Vietnam (Trang, 2016), raising \r\nthe floor of houses in the lower Niger delta (Musa et al., 2016), \r\nconstruction of verandas with sandbags and shelves in houses to \r\nelevate goods during floods in coastal communities in Cameroon \r\n(Munji et al., 2013). In Semarang City, Indonesia, residents adapted \r\nto coastal flooding by elevation of their houses by 50-400 cm or by \r\nmoving their goods to safer places, without making structural changes \r\n(Buchori et al., 2018). Residents of Can Tho City of the Mekong Delta, \r\nVietnam elevated houses in response to tidal flooding (Garschagen, \r\n2015). In urban areas extensive drainage systems contribute to \r\naccommodation such as in Hong Kong and Singapore, which rely on "


id: 82dc9334a41607b98d778f54c5a451c7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20152
content:
"Similar to hard protection, land reclamation is mature and effective \r\ntechnology and can provide predictable levels of safety. If the entire \r\nland area is raised above the height of ESLs, residual risks are lower \r\nas compared to hard protection as there is no risk of catastrophic \r\ndefence failure. "


id: a7eacd18d429ab15379c93db1fbc263a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26752
content:
"The major co-benefit of advance is the creation of new land. The \r\nmajor drawbacks include groundwater salinisation, enhanced \r\nerosion and loss of coastal ecosystems and habitat, and the growth "


id: ad51307d70afc5c15205cd9e97ba04b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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vector_id: 27736
content:
"urban drainage systems to handle large volumes of surface runoff \r\ngenerated during storm events (Chan et al., 2018). Farming practices \r\nhave been adapted to frequent flooding in the lower Niger delta: \r\nfarmers raise crops above floodwaters by planting on mounds of soil \r\nand apply ridging and terracing on farmlands to form barriers (Musa \r\net al., 2016). In the floodplains of Bangladesh, floating gardens help \r\nto maintain food production even if the area is submerged (Irfanullah \r\net al., 2011). Here, the traditional way to build homesteads is on a \r\nraised mound, built with earth from the excavation of canals and \r\nponds (ADPC, 2005). Coastal infrastructure, such as ports, having a \r\nfunctional need to be at the coast, accommodate SLR with elevated \r\npiers and critical infrastructure. One example is Los Angeles, where \r\nPierS was raised to an elevation of 6 m (Aerts, 2018)."


id: 6d1ccffb47a3056981b6fafaafd03a33
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vector_id: 16474
content:
"well-suited to accommodate slow onset change (i.e.,  events or \r\nprocesses that happen with high certainty under different climate \r\nchange scenarios). "


id: b1bb7f572a13d3a0bb63219afca3637a
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28483
content:
"Communities in the Netherlands are experimenting with floating/\r\namphibious houses capable of adapting to different water levels, \r\nand similar considerations are also discussed in other geographies, \r\nsuch as in Bangkok (Nilubon et al., 2016). Flood proofing is widely \r\napplied in the USA, where wet and dry flood proofing measures \r\nare recognised: wet flood proofing reduces damage from flooding \r\nwhile dry flood proofing makes a building watertight or substantially \r\nimpermeable to floodwaters up to the expected flood height (FEMA, \r\n2014). In that sense, dry flood proofing could also be interpreted as a \r\nprotection measure on the level of individual structures."


id: 6fdf83d64dc3f9a54e74a5a9b31021ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16939
content:
"Physical accommodation to salinisation and saline water intrusion \r\nis more poorly documented. It mainly entails agricultural adaptation \r\nto soil salinity, and saline surface and ground water, as described for \r\nthe land use changes aimed at alternating rice-shrimp systems and \r\nshrimp aquaculture in the Mekong Delta (Renaud et al., 2015) or using \r\nmethods which decrease soil salinity, such as flushing rice fields with \r\nfresh water to wash out salinity (Renaud et al., 2015), or applying \r\nmaize straw in wheat fields (Xie et al., 2017). Coastal communities \r\nare also experimenting with the use of salt tolerant varieties as a \r\nresult of breeding programmes, for example, in Indonesia (Rumanti \r\net al., 2018), or saline irrigation water in conjunction with fresh \r\nwater, such as for maize in coastal Bangladesh (Murad et al., 2018). "


id: 667b6b97c8e426120daaada528250bb0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15292
content:
"Adaptation planning for SLR has been incorporated into land use \r\nplanning in several states in the USA (Butler et al., 2016b). In the \r\nYangtze River Delta, landscape planning designs floodplain zones to \r\naccept floodwaters (Seavitt, 2013). In the Mekong Delta, different \r\nland use options, including shifting from freshwater agriculture to \r\nbrackish and saline agriculture, were proposed as seawater intrudes \r\nfarther inland (Smajgl et al., 2015)."


id: 33f5b58243edb880ad5883a202a9c042
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6386
content:
"EWS are frequently incorporated into overall risk reduction strategies \r\nand are applied for various coastal hazards such as tsunamis in coastal \r\nareas of Indonesia (Lauterjung et al., 2017) and hydro-meteorological \r\ncoastal hazards in Bangladesh and Uruguay (Leal Filho et al., 2018). \r\nThey fall under 'accommodation' as they allow people to remain in \r\nthe hazard-prone area but provide advance warning or evacuation \r\nin the face of imminent danger. In contrast to hard protection \r\nmeasures, EWS have shorter installation time and lower impact on \r\nthe environment (Sattele et al., 2015). They can work effectively to \r\nreduce risk arising from predictable hazardous events but are less "


id: 2ca17dd4885fef975255b18e927c66c9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5114
content:
"In summary, due to the large variety of different measures \r\nimplemented in ad hoc ways worldwide, there is low confidence in \r\nquantitative projections of accommodation measures in response to \r\nSLR. However, there is high confidence that accommodation measures \r\nwill continue to be a widespread adaptation option especially in \r\ncombination with protection and retreat measures. "


id: d183452e64140a43789e6b5c398186
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content:
"The major drawback of accommodation is that it actually does not \r\nprevent flooding or salinisation, which might have consequences not \r\naddressed by the accommodation measure itself. Examples include \r\ninundation of an area where houses are flood proofed but schooling \r\nof children and business operations are nevertheless disrupted. \r\nSignificant clean up may also be needed after flood water enters \r\nbuildings, including the removal of sediment, debris or chemical \r\nresidues (FEMA, 2014). Also, flood proofing measures require the \r\ncurrent risk of flooding to be known and communicated to and \r\nunderstood by the public through flood hazard mapping studies and \r\nflood warning information (Zhu et al., 2010). Small businesses in \r\nparticular may face difficulties to recover from flooding due to lack of \r\nforward planning (Hoggart et al., 2014)."


id: 952054eb3af527108612d67df2b7aa33
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content:
"The cost of accommodation varies widely with the measures taken as \r\nwell as the expected flood height. For flood proofing of buildings in \r\nNew York City for instance, Aerts et al. (2014) provided an economic \r\nrationale for the implementation of improved building codes, such as \r\nelevating new buildings and protecting critical infrastructure (see also \r\nBox 4.1). Flood proofing can also be undertaken by individuals and \r\neven small, inexpensive flood proofing efforts can result in reductions \r\nin flood damage (Zhu et al., 2010). In general, costs for flood proofing \r\nincrease as the flood protection elevation increases. Other costs \r\ninclude those for maintenance and, if applicable, insurance premiums. \r\nFor example, deciding to elevate a building in the USA will increase \r\nthe project's cost; however, the additional elevation may lead to \r\nsignificant savings on flood insurance premiums (FEMA, 2014)."


id: 5fcf34269d9448a9ed5e52c1ed38d1bf
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"Co-benefits of insurance include the possibility that sovereign level \r\ninsurance may improve the credit ratings of vulnerable countries, \r\nreducing the cost of capital and allowing them to borrow to invest in \r\nresilient infrastructure (Buhr et al., 2018). Major natural disasters can \r\nweaken sovereign ratings, especially if there is no insurance in place \r\n(Moritz Kramer, 2015). One much discussed drawback of insurance is \r\nthe moral hazard that may result: since someone else bears the costs \r\nof a loss, those insured may be less inclined to take precautionary \r\nmeasures or may act recklessly (Duus-Otterstrom and Jagers, 2011)."


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content:
"While accommodation measures to coastal hazards are often taking \r\nplace at the local level, and are decided by individual homeowners, \r\nfarmers or communities, from a governance perspective it is important \r\nto provide guidance on how and to what extent owners can retrofit \r\ntheir homes to reduce the risk to coastal flooding. In New York City, \r\nfor instance, changes to building codes, require elevating, or flood \r\nproofing of existing and new buildings in the 100-year floodplain, \r\nand prevent construction of critical infrastructure like hospitals in the \r\nflood zone (NYC, 2014; see also Box 4.1)."


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content:
"Effective coastal risk management efforts rely on good governance \r\nthat includes understanding the probability and consequences of \r\nhazard impacts like flooding and salinisation, and implementing \r\nmechanisms to prevent or manage all possible events (EEA, 2013). \r\nThe effectiveness of accommodation measures based on institutional \r\nmeasures, such as EWS and evacuation plans, largely depends on the \r\ngovernance capabilities they are embedded in. "


id: f4a1154b64a937eb9420ba861e6c48c0
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content:
"There is high confidence that many accommodation measures are \r\nvery cost-efficient. Flood EWS coupled with precautionary measures \r\nhave been shown to produce significant economic benefits (Parker, \r\n2017). Elevating areas at high risk and retrofitting buildings in Ho Chi \r\nMinh City, for example, have benefit-cost ratios of 15 under SLR of \r\n180 cm and a discount rate of 5% during the 21st century (Scussolini \r\net al., 2017). In the context of the National Flood Insurance Program \r\nin the USA, it has been estimated that elevating new houses by \r\n60 cm might raise mortgage payments by 240 USD yr-1, but reduce \r\nflood insurance by 1000-2000 USD yr-1 depending on the flood \r\nzone (FEMA, 2018), although this only addresses present extremes "


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content:
"and ignores future SLR (Zhu et al., 2010). In Europe, the benefits of \r\ninstalling a cross-border continental-scale flood EWS are estimated \r\nat 400 EUR per EUR invested (Pappenberger et al., 2015)."


id: 5ad9af1b2d7122fae6a05fc6cbf6e49f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13233
content:
"There is high agreement that climate change has the potential to \r\ndrastically alter the size and direction of migration flows (Connell, \r\n2012; Gray and Wise, 2016; Janif et al., 2016; Nawrotzki and DeWaard, \r\n2016; Szabo et al., 2016; Call et al., 2017; Nawrotzki et al., 2017), but \r\nthere is low confidence in quantitative projections of migration in \r\nresponse to SLR and extremes of sea level. The number of modelling \r\nstudies of migration in response to environmental drivers has \r\nincreased rapidly over the past decade (Kumari et al. 2018), but only \r\na small portion of these model studies address migration in response \r\nto SLR and sea level extremes. Amongst these, a variety of different \r\nmodelling approaches have been applied, but no model currently \r\naccounts for all push and pull factors influencing migration decisions \r\n(see Section 4.4.2.6.1)."


id: 662edd646a2853d116a8183acba70108
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15241
content:
"There is robust evidence of disasters displacing people worldwide, \r\nbut limited evidence that climate change or SLR is the direct cause. \r\nIn 2017, 18.8 million people were displaced by disasters, of which \r\n18  million were displaced by weather-related events including \r\n8.6  million people displaced by floods and 7.5  million by storms, \r\nwith hundreds of millions more at risk (IDMC, 2017; Islam and Khan, \r\n2018). The majority of resultant population movements tend to occur \r\nwithin the borders of affected countries (Warner and Afifi, 2014; \r\nHunter et al., 2015; Nawrotzki et al., 2017). "


id: 431edccef828cf606992aba31070555d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9017
content:
"A model projecting future US county-level populations exposed \r\nto permanent inundation was combined with an empirical model \r\nof potential migration destinations to produce the first sea level/\r\nmigration analysis of migrant destinations (Hauer, 2017). Assuming \r\nthat households with incomes above 100,000 USD yr-1 would have \r\nresources to stay and adapt, it was found that 1.8 m SLR by 2100 \r\nwould displace over two million people in south Florida. Projected \r\npopulation gains due to SLR reach several hundred thousand for \r\nsome inland urban areas. A gravity model modified to account for \r\nboth distance to destinations and their attractiveness (deriving from \r\nsuch factors as economic opportunity and environmental amenities) \r\nprojects a net migration into and out of the East African coastal \r\nzone, ranging from out-migration of 750,000 people between 2020 "


id: e770182b8046a56595e92adc31e35096
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38017
content:
"We find robust evidence of planned relocation taking place worldwide \r\nin low-lying zones exposed to the impacts of coastal hazards (Hino \r\net al., 2017; Mortreux et al., 2018). While relocation plans are usually \r\ndiscussed after an extreme event occurs, they generally target the \r\nreduction of long-term environmental risks, including those of "


id: 510c9669c2b8b9e653827f4851077886
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11538
content:
"and 2050 to a small in-migration (Kumari et al., 2018). However, \r\nthis range includes migration stimulated by freshwater availability \r\nas well as SLR and episodic flooding. A generalised radiation or \r\ndiffusion model predicts 0.9 million people will migrate due to SLR \r\nin Bangladesh by 2050 and 2.1 million by 2100, largely internally, \r\nwith substantial implications for nutrition, shelter and employment \r\nin destination areas (Davis et al., 2018)."


id: 99f10a7531166fb6d00ad7d93adf5331
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24314
content:
"across 18 parishes (i.e. counties) in Louisiana in 2006 revealed \r\nthat non-displaced households had an average income of 36,000 \r\nUSD compared to an average income of 30,000 USD recorded for \r\ndisplaced households (Hori and Schafer, 2010). "


id: 94ba2fa321c17ab1b0dc7210f47ec5da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23372
content:
"There is very high confidence that retreat is effective in reducing \r\nthe risks and impacts of SLR as retreat directly reduces exposure of \r\nhuman settlements and activities (Gioli et al., 2016; Shayegh et al., \r\n2016; Hauer, 2017; Morrison, 2017). "


id: c6f89f657e3f092b351914965ee71caa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32315
content:
"We have limited evidence of estimates on the cost of retreat. There \r\nare few cost estimates in the literature and these are based on \r\nstylised assumptions as little empirical data is available. "


id: 2cf2208212e3bb5e324698d9bc617e18
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5178
content:
"Drawbacks of migration and displacement at the destination can \r\nbe increased competition for resources and within labour markets, \r\npressure on frontline services and on social cohesion as a result of \r\nheightened cultural or ethnic tension (Werz and Hoffman, 2015), as \r\nwell as cultural, social and psychological losses related to disruptions \r\nto sense of place and identity, self-efficacy, and rights to ancestral \r\nland and culture (McNamara et al., 2018). The unplanned and \r\nunassisted voluntary relocation of the inhabitants of Nuatambu and \r\nNusa Hope in the Solomon Islands to areas further from the coast \r\nposes a series of practical challenges with sanitation, access to \r\ndrinking water and transport (Albert et al., 2018). "


id: 2c05403570258e74768f05f435a089d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4998
content:
"The success of planned relocation in terms of the balance of \r\nco-benefits and drawbacks varies across relocation schemes (Hino \r\net al., 2017) and outcomes are highly uneven (Genovese and \r\nPrzyluski, 2013; Ford et al., 2015; Nordstrom et al., 2015; Bukvic \r\nand Owen, 2017; Hino et al., 2017; Jamero et al., 2017). On the one \r\nhand, well designed and carefully implemented programmes, such \r\nas the ongoing resettlement of indigenous communities in Alaska, \r\ncan improve housing standards and reduce vulnerability (Suppasri \r\net al., 2015; Albert et al., 2018). On the other hand, relocated \r\ncommunities have often become further impoverished (Wilmsen and \r\nWebber, 2015), because they are removed from cultural and material \r\nresources on which they rely, compounded by poor implementation \r\nprocesses that may fail to ensure fairness, social and environmental "


id: d934399ef93d470d9697e4e2ec665b26
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35511
content:
"The individual costs associated with displacement after an \r\nenvironmental disaster are difficult to obtain. In the literature, there \r\nare limited estimates of the social costs to residents of Guadeloupe, \r\nSaint Croix, St. Thomas, Puerto Rico, and the southeast USA displaced \r\nafter Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and Katrina (2005). A survey conducted "


id: b7d275cedfd4081aaa3820ad632c9aad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29560
content:
"justice and well-being (Herath et al., 2017; Mortreux et al., 2018; \r\nNygren and Wayessa, 2018)."


id: 4771c9ed3af3377493f55b8ad85843e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9780
content:
"There is limited evidence on the efficiency of retreat responses in the \r\nscientific literature."


id: ff0dff8e124d0497f107da7b8b7c1411
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42276
content:
"AR5 stated that there are many reasons why adaptation governance \r\nis complex (Klein et al., 2014). The first generation of studies that \r\ninvestigated this question empirically identified many (lists of) \r\nbarriers that people have experienced in adaptation governance \r\nin specific case contexts, including political, institutional, \r\nsocial-cognitive, economic, financial, biophysical and technical \r\nbarriers (Klein et al., 2014). Although insightful for these specific \r\ncases, including SLR (Hinkel et al., 2018), accumulation of empirical "


id: 6c3311635d705536188760dee93ad0e9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16332
content:
"findings in building theory proved to be limited, and it did not result \r\nin more evidence-informed advice to policy makers on how to deal \r\nwith barriers (Biesbroek et al., 2013; Eisenack et al., 2014)."


id: 4a44e4b7f4b3bd5e4cbc7273bc72cd5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10308
content:
"relative inflexibility of existing law and institutions and the evolving \r\nnature of SLR risk and impacts (Cosens et al., 2017; Craig et al., \r\n2017; DeCaro et al., 2017). Possible limits of in situ responses to \r\nongoing SLR (e.g.,  protection and accommodation), bring into \r\nquestion prevailing legal approaches to property rights and land use \r\nregulation (Byrne, 2012). In addition, because uncertainty about SLR \r\nmakes it difficult to decide when to wait and when to act, public \r\nactors fear being held accountable for misjudgments (Kuklicke and \r\nDemeritt, 2016). The long time horizon and uncertainty of SLR make it \r\ndifficult to mobilise political will and the leadership required to take \r\nvisionary action (Cuevas et al., 2016; Gibbs, 2016; Yusuf et al., 2016; \r\nYusuf et al., 2018b)."


id: 80a68439be9a9d56688f1966c5616775
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19765
content:
"In response, in a second generation of studies, several frameworks \r\nhave been proposed and tested to advance scholarship on barriers \r\nto adaptation (Eisenack and Stecker, 2012; Barnett et al., 2015; \r\nLehmann et al., 2015; Bisaro and Hinkel, 2016). A frequently used \r\nframework was developed by Moser and Ekstrom (2010) who \r\nidentified and linked key barriers to certain stages of the policy \r\nprocess: understanding, planning and management stages. Moser \r\nand Ekstrom (2010) argue that conditions, such as the scope and \r\nscale of adaptation, have significant implications for which barriers \r\nare activated in the policy process, and how persistent and difficult \r\nthey are to overcome. This and other frameworks have been applied \r\nin a diversity of contexts, providing valuable insights about the \r\ngovernance challenges involved in adapting to climate change and \r\nsuggestions for improvement (Ekstrom and Moser, 2014; Rosendo \r\net al., 2018; Thaler et al., 2019)."


id: 3e5528f88094486e589ba6c4fdd3bda0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8143
content:
"A recent generation of studies takes more theory based approaches \r\nand includes contextual factors to analyse the key social mechanisms \r\nthat explain why adaptation processes are often complex, result in \r\ndeadlocks, delays or even failure (Biesbroek et al., 2014; Eisenack \r\net al., 2014; Wellstead et al., 2014; Biesbroek et al., 2015; Bisaro \r\nand Hinkel, 2016; Oberlack and Eisenack, 2018; Sieber et al., 2018; \r\nWellstead et al.). Such insights are critical as they can be used by \r\npractitioners for policy design (e.g.,  to prevent certain deadlocks \r\nfrom emerging by (re)designing contextual conditions), or provide \r\ninsights on strategic interventions in ongoing processes to revitalise \r\ndeadlocked adaptation governance (Biesbroek et al., 2017)."


id: 361a8396550f7c4d53bbb8057d58bd12
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6770
content:
"There is a wide diversity of governance challenges and opportunities \r\nfor tackling SLR, with marked differences within and between coastal \r\ncommunities in developed and developing counties. Five salient \r\noverarching governance challenges that arise due to distinctive \r\nfeatures of SLR were highlighted. This typology is then used to assess \r\nhow planning, participation and conflict resolution (Section 4.4.4.2), \r\ndecision analysis methods (Section 4.4.4.3), and enabling conditions \r\n(Section 4.5) can help to address these five challenges."


id: 8dc72efe20b36ea6a0be3bb0eeedca84
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22137
content:
"Time horizon and uncertainty: The long-term commitment to \r\nSLR (Section  4.2.3.5) and the large and deep uncertainty about \r\nthe magnitude and timing of SLR beyond 2050 (Section 4.4.4.3.2), \r\nchallenge standard planning and decision making practises for \r\nseveral reasons (high confidence; Peters et al., 2017; Pot et al., 2018; \r\nHall et al., 2019; Hinkel et al., 2019). The time horizon of SLR extends \r\nbeyond usual political, electoral and budget cycles. Furthermore, \r\nmany planning and decision making practices strive for predictability \r\nand certainty, which is at odds with the dynamic risk and deep \r\nuncertainty characterising SLR (Hall et al., 2019). Tensions can arise \r\nbetween established risk-based planning that seeks to measure risk, \r\nand adaptation responses that embrace uncertainty and complexity \r\n(Kuklicke and Demeritt, 2016; Carlsson Kanyama et al., 2019). For \r\nexample, tensions arise because of the mismatch between the "


id: aea5bc77c39ac4e7d13a93ee2fe4a270
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27959
content:
"appropriate adjustments in the light of experience, change and \r\nemerging knowledge and needs. The legal literature on roles played \r\nby law (Byrne, 2012; Vidas, 2014; Reiblich et al., 2019; Setzer and \r\nVanhala, 2019), or informal approaches such as indigenous decision \r\nmaking practices (Carter, 2018) were not assessed."


id: adfb0f6ddf7d34d7e4b4d358a379187a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27851
content:
"Land use or spatial planning has the potential to help communities \r\nprepare for the future and decide how to manage coastal activities \r\nand land use taking into account the uncertainty, complexity and \r\ncontestation that characterise SLR (high confidence; Hurlimann and \r\nMarch, 2012; Hurlimann et al., 2014; Berke and Stevens, 2016; King \r\net al., 2016; Reiblich et al., 2017) Planners work with governing \r\nauthorities, the private sector, and local communities to integrate and \r\napply tailor-made decision analysis, public participation and conflict \r\nresolution approaches that can be institutionalised in statutory \r\nprovisions, and aligned with informal institutional structures and \r\nprocesses carried out at various scales (Hurlimann and March, 2012; \r\nSmith and Glavovic, 2014; Berke and Stevens, 2016). "


id: 93b9ef0840f0a8a89bcd3c916bf6ff06
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23199
content:
"Complexity: SLR introduces novel and complex problems that are \r\ndifficult to understand and address (high confidence; Moser et al., \r\n2012; Alford and Head, 2017; Wright and Nichols, 2018; Hall et al., \r\n2019). As a result of the preceding features of the SLR problem, and the \r\ncomplexity of the nonlinear interactions between biogeophysical and \r\nhuman systems, SLR challenges may be difficult to frame, understand \r\nand respond to. Often, disciplinary science is not sufficient for \r\nunderstanding complex problems like SLR and traditional technical \r\nproblem solving may not be well suited for crafting enduring SLR \r\nresponses (Lawrence et al., 2015; Termeer et al., 2015). SLR poses a \r\nchallenge for bridging gaps between science, policy and practice (Hall \r\net al., 2019). The complexity and rapid pace of SLR in some localities \r\nis also challenging traditional community decision making practices, \r\nfor example, in some Pacific Island communities (Nunn et al., 2014)."


id: 58eb65bab0ce7a600d5efb2b51215d53
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"The extent to which planning is effective in reducing coastal risk, \r\nhowever, varies widely between and within coastal nations (Glavovic \r\nand Smith, 2014; Shi et al., 2015; Cuevas et al., 2016; King et al., 2016; \r\nWoodruff and Stults, 2016). Planning can fail to prevent development \r\nin at-risk locations, and may even accelerate such development, as \r\nexperienced in settings as diverse as Java, Indonesia (Suroso and \r\nFirman, 2018), the Philippines (Cuevas, 2018), Australia (Hurlimann \r\net al., 2014), and the USA (Vella et al., 2016; Woodruff and Stults, \r\n2016). Planning has exacerbated sociospatial inequalities in cities \r\nlike Boston, USA, Santiago, Chile, and Jakarta, Indonesia (Anguelovski \r\net al., 2016). A study of vulnerability dynamics in Houston, New \r\nOrleans and Tampa, USA shows that vulnerability can be reinforced "


id: f4f0c9f3c1df13daa99e96b435e62180
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"A range of established and emerging planning, public participation \r\nand conflict resolution practices can help in making social choices \r\nand addressing governance challenges in responding to SLR \r\n(Section 4.4.4.2). Social choice and decision making processes may \r\nalso involve the application of formal decision analysis methods for \r\nappraising and choosing responses (Section 4.4.4.3). Making social \r\nchoices involves deciding which combination of decision methods, \r\nmodes of participation, conflict resolution strategies, and planning \r\nprocesses to use when and how, and then implementing the resultant \r\ndecisions, monitoring and reviewing progress over time, and making "


id: 2dda67322630e28b58bdad6062f79707
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5346
content:
"or ameliorated through adaptation planning and decision making \r\nprocesses (Kashem et al., 2016). Regulatory planning may be \r\nnon-existent in some settings, such as informal settlements, or \r\nwhen used can paradoxically entrench vulnerability and compound \r\nrisk (Berquist et al., 2015; Amoako, 2016; Ziervogel et al., 2016b). \r\nPlanning practice is thus both a contributor to and an outcome of \r\nlocal politics and power. Recognising and navigating these challenges \r\nis key to realising the promise of planning for reducing SLR risk, and \r\nparticipatory planning processes that reconcile divergent interests \r\nare central to this endeavour (Forester, 2006; Smith and Glavovic, \r\n2014; Anguelovski et al., 2016; Cuevas et al., 2016)."


id: 806b7f9850d70fd8785248b05c446395
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"shown in coastal settings including Queensland, Australia (Burton \r\nand Mustelin, 2013), Germany's Baltic Sea (Schernewski et al., \r\n2018), England (Mehring et al., 2018), Sweden (Brink and Wamsler, \r\n2019), and South Africa (Ziervogel, 2019). Research by Uittenbroek \r\net al. (2019) in the Netherlands, for example, shows that public \r\nparticipation objectives are more probable if participation objectives \r\nand process design principles and practices are co-produced by \r\ncommunity and government stakeholders. In some cities in the \r\nGlobal South, experience shows that a focus on building effective \r\nmulti-sector governance institutions can facilitate ongoing public \r\ninvolvement in adaptation planning and implementation, and \r\nenhance long-term adaptation prospects (Chu, 2016b)."


id: 5a309db76031f2a7ad19f93069238aab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13116
content:
"Public participation refers to directly involving citizens in decision \r\nmaking processes rather than only indirectly via voting. Citizen \r\nparticipation is commonplace in public decision making that \r\naddresses important societal concerns like SLR (Sarzynski, 2015; \r\nBerke and Stevens, 2016; Gorddard et al., 2016; Baker and Chapin \r\nIII, 2018; Yusuf et al., 2018b). Practices sit along a continuum from \r\nmanipulation to minimal involvement and more empowering and \r\nself-determining practices (Arnstein, 1969; International Association \r\nfor Public Participation, 2018). Public participation draws on a wide \r\nvariety of tailored engagement processes and practices, from 'serious \r\ngames' (Wu and Lee, 2015) to role-play simulations (Rumore et al., \r\n2016), and deliberative-analytical engagement (Webler et al., 2016). "


id: 68da4b0164f0360facfa661c0942a462
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15717
content:
"It is widely recognised that authentic and meaningful public \r\nparticipation is  important and  can help  in  crafting effective and \r\nenduring adaptation responses, but is invariably difficult to achieve \r\nin practice (Barton et al., 2015; Cloutier et al., 2015; Sarzynski, 2015; \r\nSerrao-Neumann et al., 2015; Berke and Stevens, 2016; Chu et al., \r\n2016; Schlosberg et al., 2017; Baker and Chapin III, 2018; Kirshen et al., \r\n2018; Lawrence et al., 2018; Mehring et al., 2018; Lawrence et al., \r\n2019; Uittenbroek et al., 2019). There is limited empirical evidence \r\nthat public participation per se improves environmental outcomes \r\n(Callahan, 2007; Reed, 2008; Newig and Fritsch, 2009). Major factors \r\ndetermining outcomes are tacit, including trust, environmental \r\npreferences, power relationships and the true motivations of sponsor \r\nand participants (Reed, 2008; Newig and Fritsch, 2009). Difficulties \r\nin realising the anticipated benefits of public participation have been "


id: 2cb5c21bc0a762a365cde45741e0b7c2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5128
content:
"Many of the techniques used in planning, public participation and \r\nconflict resolution, at times together with decision analysis and support \r\ntools, are being applied in combination. In New Zealand, for example, \r\na participatory approach was used to combine dynamic adaptive \r\npathways planning with multi-criteria and real options analysis \r\n(Section 4.4.4.3.4) to develop a 100-year strategy to manage coastal \r\nhazard risk (Lawrence et al., 2019; see Box 4.1). Public participation "


id: a82112f41925920c37e4b69cd1a9c658
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26798
content:
"thereby helped to shift communities towards a longer-term view \r\nand towards considering a wider range of adaptation options and \r\npathways. Such combined approaches are also sometimes referred to \r\nas Community Based Adaptation, which involve local people directly \r\nin understanding and addressing the climate change risks they face \r\n(Box 4.4). These processes and practices are used in many settings, \r\nfrom small, isolated indigenous communities to large-scale coastal \r\ninfrastructure projects in both the Global North and South. See \r\nTable 4.9 in Section 4.4.5 for illustrative examples. "


id: c4131a7cb3a188f1c1e3348b30784a2d
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updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31781
content:
"making methods combine each of the three advances highlighted \r\nhere (Marchau et al., 2019). The suitability of each method depends \r\nstrongly on the specific context, including available resources, \r\ntechnical capabilities, policy objectives, stakeholder preferences and \r\navailable information."


id: 921fccfee6982ce2516925a2ff2397b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22922
content:
"A growing literature on decision analysis of coastal adaptation \r\nadvocates the use of RDM approaches instead of maximising \r\nexpected utility approaches (Hallegatte et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., \r\n2013; Lempert et al., 2013; Wong et al., 2017). The core criterion to \r\nbe considered for choosing between the two types of approaches \r\nis whether one is confronted with a situation of shallow or deep \r\nuncertainty (high confidence)(Lempert and Schlesinger, 2001; Kwakkel \r\net al., 2010; Kwakkel et al., 2016b; Hinkel et al., 2019). Uncertainty \r\nis shallow when a single unambiguous objective or subjective \r\nprobability distribution can be attached to states-of-the-world. \r\nUncertainty is deep, when this is not possible, either because there \r\nis no unambiguous method for deriving objective probabilities or \r\nthe subjective probability judgements of parties involved differ \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1; Type 2). "


id: 4921eaccee1f7254900a2a32f389cb32
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vector_id: 10092
content:
"Expected utility approaches can only be applied for identifying an \r\noptimal response in situations of shallow uncertainty. This is because \r\nthese approaches require a probability distribution over states of \r\nthe world in order to identify the optimal alternative which leads \r\nto the highest expected utility (i.e.,  the probability weighted sum \r\nof the utilities of all outcomes under a given alternative and all \r\nstates-of-the-world; Simpson et al., 2016). A prominent example \r\nof this approach is cost-benefit analysis under risk, which assesses \r\nexpected outcomes across states of the world in terms of NPV (the \r\ndiscounted stream of net benefits). Cost-benefit analysis has several \r\nwell-known limitations, such as its sensitivity to discount rates and \r\nthe difficulty to monetise ecological, cultural and other intangible \r\nbenefits (Section  1.1.4) that have been widely discussed in the \r\nclimate change literature (Chambwera et al., 2014; Kunreuther et al., \r\n2014; Dennig, 2018)."


id: db5be5475f753ea770011e29cc3a1911
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35865
content:
"In order to be effective, decision analysis needs to be embedded in a \r\ngovernance process that accounts for societal needs and objectives \r\n(Sections 4.4.4.2 and 4.4.5). This is because decision analysis entails \r\na number of normative choices about the objectives chosen, the \r\ncriteria used, the specific methods and data applied, the set of \r\nalternatives considered, and the attributes used to characterise \r\nalternatives. These choices need to reflect the diversity of values, \r\npreference and goals of all stakeholders involved in and affected \r\nby a decision. Furthermore, decision analysis needs to consider \r\nall available knowledge,  including all major uncertainties in both \r\nclimate and non-climate factors, ambiguities in expert opinions, \r\nand differences in approaches, because a partial consideration of \r\nuncertainty and ambiguity could misguide the choice of adaptation \r\nalternatives (high confidence; Renn, 2008; Jones et al., 2014; Hinkel \r\nand Bisaro, 2016)."


id: c8d815f766b426c07a5f906a8b650916
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32662
content:
"Since AR5, the literature on coastal decision analysis has advanced \r\nsignificantly, specifically addressing the large uncertainty about \r\npost-2050 SLR through i) using robust decision approaches instead \r\nof expected utility, ii) iterating or adapting decisions over time, and \r\niii) increasing flexibility of responses. Each advance is elaborated \r\nbelow. Furthermore, the coastal decision analysis literature also \r\nstresses the consideration of multiple criteria or attributes, because \r\nadaptation often involves stakeholders with differing objectives \r\nand ways of valuing alternatives (Oddo et al., 2017). Many decision "


id: fb70f1b82e7677111331a3df88d03fef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41614
content:
"future protection alternatives for New York (Aerts et al., 2014), Ho \r\nChi Minh City (Scussolini et al., 2017), and for many other locations. \r\nScenario-based cost-benefit analysis differs from cost-benefit analysis \r\nunder risk discussed above in that scenario-based cost-benefit analysis \r\nis not applied to rank alternatives across scenarios, but a 'separate' \r\ncost-benefit analysis is applied within each emission or SLR scenario \r\nconsidered. While this identifies the optimal alternative under each \r\nscenario, it does not formally address the problem faced by a coastal \r\ndecision maker, namely to decide across scenarios (Lincke and Hinkel, \r\n2018). Nevertheless, the results of scenario-based cost-benefit analysis \r\n(i.e., NPV of each alternative under each scenario) provide guidance \r\nfor decision makers and can also be used as inputs (i.e., as attributes) \r\nto robust and flexible decision making approaches."


id: 3bfd3f2e40bb31a1b3f2d3973e554b37
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7745
content:
"In principle, a single unambiguous probability distribution on future \r\nsea levels could also be attained beyond the time of scenario \r\ndivergence by attributing subjective probabilities to emission \r\nscenarios, but individuals may significantly disagree in their subjective \r\nprobabilities, which again results in deep uncertainty (Lempert and \r\nSchlesinger, 2001; Stirling, 2010). For this reason, very few studies \r\nthat assign subjective probabilities to emission scenarios are found in \r\nthe literature (Woodward et al., 2014; Abadie, 2018). But even before \r\nthe year of scenario divergence is reached, uncertainty about relative \r\nSLR can be deep, because of deep uncertainties about non-climatic \r\ncontributors to relative sea level change, such as VLM during or after \r\nearthquakes and human-induced subsidence (Cross-Chapter  5 in \r\nChapter 1; Section 4.2.2.4; Hinkel et al., 2019)."


id: c36efe6f66c50df1959bcc915d554a74
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31660
content:
"Under situations of deep uncertainty, RDM approaches aim to identify \r\nalternatives that perform reasonably well (i.e., 'are robust') under a \r\nwide range of states-of-the-world or scenarios and hence do not \r\nrequire probability assessments. These approaches include minimax \r\nor minimax regret (Savage, 1951), info gap theory (Ben-Haim, 2006), \r\nrobust optimisation (Ben-Tal et al., 2009) and exploratory modelling \r\nmethods that create a large ensemble of plausible future scenarios \r\nfor each alternative, and then use search and visualisation techniques \r\nto extract robust alternatives (Lempert and Schlesinger, 2000). SLR \r\nexamples of RDM include Brekelmans (2012) who minimise the \r\naverage and maximum regret across a range of SLR scenarios for \r\ninvestments in dike rings in the Netherlands and Lempert et al. (2013) \r\nwho apply RDM in Hoh-Chi-Minh City."


id: 3a32b15b51a24ddde7117c980c171f5f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7444
content:
"But even if SLR uncertainty is shallow, RDM are more suitable than \r\nexpected utility approaches if parties involved or affected by a \r\ndecision have a low uncertainty tolerance, because the goal of the \r\nuncertainty intolerant decision maker is to avoid major damages \r\nunder most or all circumstances (Hinkel et al., 2019)."


id: c87dbac5bcf1c7fff3f81c6126fe4911
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32577
content:
"An adaptation strategy developed based on the maximisation of \r\nexpected utility may not meet this goal, because worst case damages \r\noccurring can exceed expected damages by orders of magnitude."


id: 50558b16951289ab354f7ea06b1479df
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11415
content:
"In recent years, many different frameworks for adaptive decision \r\nmaking have been put forward, including Adaptive Policy Making \r\n(Walker et al., 2001), Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (Haasnoot \r\net al., 2013), Dynamic Adaptive Planning (Walker et al., 2013), \r\nIterative risk management (Jones et al., 2014) and Engineering \r\nOptions Analysis (de Neufville and Smet, 2019). Each frameworks \r\nemphasises particular aspects of adaptive decision making and has \r\nmerits in specific situations depending on the preferences, goals, \r\nuncertainties and information at stake (Marchau et al., 2019). \r\nNevertheless, all of these frameworks share the following generic \r\nand iterative steps"


id: 9d00fe7f152a5b5a6d5799a8177293f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24862
content:
"The uncertainty tolerance of stakeholders is also determining how \r\nlarge of a SLR range needs to be considered in RDM. Stakeholders \r\n(i.e., those deciding and those affected by a decision) that have a \r\nhigh uncertainty tolerance (e.g., those planning for investments that \r\ncan be very easily adapted) can use the combined likely range of \r\nRCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (0.29-1.10 m by 2100) for long-term adaptation \r\ndecisions. For stakeholders with a low uncertainty tolerance (e.g. \r\nthose planning for coastal safety in cities and long term investment in \r\ncritical infrastructure) it is meaningful to also consider SLR above this \r\nrange, because a 17% chance of GMSL exceeding this range under \r\nRCP8.5 is too high to be tolerated from this point of view (Ranger \r\net al., 2013; Hinkel et al., 2015; Hinkel et al., 2019)."


id: 6de4817eed960f6578573f39312cb99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16596
content:
"Independent of the debate about whether to apply expected utility or \r\nrobust decision making approaches, there is an extensive literature \r\nthat applies scenario-based cost-benefit analysis. For example, \r\nthis approach has been applied for setting the safety standards of \r\nDutch dike rings (Kind, 2014; Eijgenraam et al., 2016), exploring "


id: 20507dba1b4b6ab89cb00cd7f1be74d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2902
content:
"Figure 4.15 | Year of scenario divergence between extreme sea level projections for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 for all tide-gauge \r\nlocations with sufficient observational data relative to a 1986-2005 baseline (bottom panel). Time of divergence is defined using a 10% threshold in the statistical distance \r\nbetween the two distributions, which can be graphically interpreted as the first year in which at least 10% of the area under the probability distribution function (PDF) of \r\nRCP8.5 lies outside of the area under the upper half (i.e., above the 50th percentile) of the PDF of RCP2.6. Upper panels indicate the median and 5-95% range of future \r\nextreme sea level (ESL) relative to the 1986-2005 baseline for three tide gauge locations with low variability (Papeete), medium variability (New York) and high variability \r\n(Cuxhaven). Locations with low variability have a relatively early scenario divergence."


id: 6126b8409a930be1557e721a32907c38
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14388
content:
"An idea closely related to adaptive decision making is to keep future \r\nalternatives open by favouring flexible alternatives over non-flexible \r\nones. An alternative is said to be 'flexible' if it allows switching to \r\nother alternatives once the implemented alternative is no longer \r\neffective. For example, a flexible protection approach would be to \r\nbuild small dikes on foundations designed for higher dikes, in order \r\nto be able to raise dikes in the future should SLR necessitate this."


id: e1ad78ba2897e3bd153991bee9cb2c02
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36974
content:
"Alternatives can also be characterised through multiple attributes \r\nsuch as costs, effectiveness, co-benefits, social acceptability, etc., \r\nwhich in turn can be used in multi-attribute decision making methods \r\n(Haasnoot et al., 2013). An important attribute is transfer cost, which \r\nis the cost of course correction (switching from one alternative to \r\nanother), reflecting the potential for path dependency (Haasnoot \r\net al., 2019). Delaying decisions and opting for flexible measures \r\nintroduces extra costs, such as transfer costs. Also, flexible measures \r\nare often more expensive than inflexible ones, and damages may \r\noccur whilst delaying the decision. An important question therefore \r\nis whether it is cheaper to implement a flexible measure now or to \r\nwait and implement a less flexible (i.e.,  cheaper) measure later in \r\ntime when more information is at hand."


id: dac4e47d11183182e333fb953415003c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35781
content:
"In addition to the literature on planning, public participation, conflict \r\nresolution and decision making assessed in the last Section, much is \r\nbeing learned from practical experiences gained in adapting to climate \r\nchange and SLR at the coast. Some salient enabling conditions and \r\nlessons learnt are illustrated in Table  4.9 through case studies or \r\nexamples of real-world experience in diverse coastal communities \r\naround the world, structured according to the five overarching SLR \r\ngovernance challenges identified in Section  4.4.3. In these cases, \r\nthe following stands out as being foundational for enabling the \r\nimplementation of SLR responses and addressing the governance \r\nchallenges that arise. First, effective SLR responses take a long-term \r\nperspective (e.g., 100 years and beyond) and explicitly account for the \r\nuncertainty of locality-specific risks beyond 2050. Second, given the "


id: f3e7a8fe1dfce8f00847bca7d21b69fc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40289
content:
"Table 4.9 | Enablers and lessons learned to overcome governance challenges arising from sea level rise (SLR)."


id: e4049026e76e7f389a56ff87e0f0025f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37414
content:
"As the global climate changes, rising sea levels, combined with high tides, storms and flooding, put coastal and island \r\ncommunities increasingly at risk. Protection can be achieved by building dikes or seawalls and by maintaining natural features \r\nlike mangroves or coral reefs. Communities can also adjust by reclaiming land from the sea and adapting buildings to cope \r\nwith floods. However, all measures have their limits, and once these are reached people may ultimately have to retreat. \r\nChoices made today influence how coastal ecosystems and communities can respond to sea level rise (SLR) in the future. \r\nReducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would not just reduce risks, but also open up more adaptation options."


id: 85e89a3fc1fb0c99b46eeb01b96d1547
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20703
content:
"Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) is rising and it will continue to do so for centuries. Sustainable development \r\naspirations are at risk because many people, assets and vital resources are concentrated along low-lying coasts \r\naround the world. Many coastal communities have started to consider the implications of SLR. Measures are \r\nbeing taken to address coastal hazards exacerbated by rising sea level, such as coastal flooding due to extreme \r\nevents (e.g. storm surges, tropical cyclones, coastal erosion and salinisation). However, many coastal communities \r\nare still not sufficiently adapted to today's ESLs."


id: 3f0f9d9b081758737156cae615a0b36a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8281
content:
"Scientific evidence about SLR is clear: GMSL rose by 1.5 mm yr-1 during the period 1901-1990, accelerating to \r\n3.6 mm yr-1 during the period 2005-2015. It is likely to rise 0.61-1.10 m by 2100 if global GHG emissions are not \r\nmitigated (RCP8.5). However, a rise of two or more metres cannot be ruled out. It could rise to more than 3 m \r\nby 2300, depending on the level of GHG emissions and the response of the AIS, which are both highly uncertain. \r\nEven if efforts to mitigate emissions are very effective, ESL events that were rare over the last century will \r\nbecome common before 2100, and even by 2050 in many locations. Without ambitious adaptation, the combined \r\nimpact of hazards like coastal storms and very high tides will drastically increase the frequency and severity of \r\nflooding on low-lying coasts."


id: a549f550acd23818b3b1ad8a8b8f6f4f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26308
content:
"For those unable to afford protection, accommodation or advance measures, or when such measures are no \r\nlonger viable or effective, retreat becomes inevitable. Millions of people living on low-lying islands face this \r\nprospect, including inhabitants of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), of some densely populated but less \r\nintensively developed deltas, of rural coastal villages and towns, and of Arctic communities who already face \r\nmelting sea ice and unprecedented changes in weather. The resultant impacts on distinctive cultures and ways \r\nof life could be devastating. Difficult trade-offs are therefore inevitable when making social choices about rising \r\nsea level. Institutionalising processes that lead to fair and just outcomes is challenging, but vitally important."


id: c15312f235d0c1b8103ef9f70e686c59
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31314
content:
"Choices being made now about how to respond to SLR profoundly influence the trajectory of future exposure \r\nand vulnerability to SLR. If concerted emissions mitigation is delayed, risks will progressively increase as SLR \r\naccelerates. Prospects for global climate-resilience and sustainable development therefore depend in large part \r\non coastal nations, cities and communities taking urgent and sustained locally-appropriate action to mitigate \r\nGHG emissions and adapt to SLR. "


id: 385c34a259d02b68c6f4843ee2542824
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7126
content:
"Javier Aristegui (Spain), Valeria A. Guinder (Argentina), Robert Hallberg (USA), Nathalie Hilmi \r\n(Monaco/France), Nianzhi Jiao (China), Md saiful Karim (Australia), Lisa Levin (USA), \r\nSean  O'Donoghue (South Africa), Sara R. Purca Cuicapusa (Peru), Baruch Rinkevich (Israel), \r\nToshio Suga (Japan), Alessandro Tagliabue (United Kingdom), Phillip Williamson (United Kingdom)"


id: b9a757e4832da2412ddd5b417b81655e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29873
content:
"Bindoff, N.L., W.W.L. Cheung, J.G. Kairo, J. Aristegui, V.A. Guinder, R. Hallberg, N. Hilmi, N. Jiao, M.S. Karim, L. Levin, \r\nS. O'Donoghue, S.R. Purca Cuicapusa, B. Rinkevich, T. Suga, A. Tagliabue, and P. Williamson, 2019: Changing Ocean, \r\nMarine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing \r\nClimate [H.-O. Portner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, \r\nM. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, \r\nNY, USA, pp. 447-587. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.007."


id: 65cdd3ce148b5f833d128c8c03593742
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15170
content:
"Multiple datasets and models show that the rate of ocean \r\nuptake of atmospheric CO2 has continued to strengthen \r\nin the recent two decades in response to the increasing \r\nconcentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. The very likely range \r\nfor ocean uptake is between 20-30% of total anthropogenic \r\nemissions in the recent two decades. Evidence is growing that the \r\nocean carbon sink is dynamic on decadal timescales, especially \r\nin the Southern Ocean, which has affected the total global ocean \r\ncarbon sink (medium confidence). {5.2.2.3}"


id: f9d80a466513c75ceb5b68f88ecaded2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41317
content:
"The ocean is essential for all aspects of human well-being and \r\nlivelihood. It provides key services like climate regulation, through \r\nthe energy budget, carbon cycle and nutrient cycle. The ocean is the \r\nhome of biodiversity ranging from microbes to marine mammals \r\nthat form a wide variety of ecosystems in open pelagic and \r\ncoastal ocean."


id: 64fcf7724bce83c247604553e4b79d64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15038
content:
"The ocean is continuing to acidify in response to ongoing ocean \r\ncarbon uptake. The open ocean surface water pH is observed to be \r\ndeclining (virtually certain) by a very likely range of 0.017-0.027 pH \r\nunits per decade since the late 1980s across individual time series \r\nobservations longer than 15 years. The anthropogenic pH signal is very \r\nlikely to have emerged for three-quarters of the near-surface open \r\nocean prior to 1950 and it is very likely that over 95% of the near \r\nsurface open ocean has already been affected. These changes in pH \r\nhave reduced the stability of mineral forms of calcium carbonate due \r\nto a lowering of carbonate ion concentrations, most notably in the \r\nupwelling and high-latitude regions of the ocean. {5.2.2.3, Box 5.1}"


id: e327eed78034f04cb7a297ee41b1dbf1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37263
content:
"Carbon emissions from human activities are causing ocean \r\nwarming, acidification and oxygen loss with some evidence \r\nof changes in nutrient cycling and primary production. The \r\nwarming ocean is affecting marine organisms at multiple \r\ntrophic levels, impacting fisheries with implications for food \r\nproduction and human communities. Concerns regarding the \r\neffectiveness of existing ocean and fisheries governance \r\nhave already been reported, highlighting the need for timely \r\nmitigation and adaptation responses."


id: e365efd45f15eac9ba5dcce5ca5edad4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37304
content:
"The ocean has warmed unabated since 2005, continuing the \r\nclear multi-decadal ocean warming trends documented in \r\nthe IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The warming trend is \r\nfurther confirmed by the improved ocean temperature measurements \r\nover the last decade. The 0-700 m and 700-2000 m layers of the \r\nocean have warmed at rates of 5.31 +- 0.48 and 4.02 +- 0.97 ZJ yr-1\r\nfrom 2005 to 2017. The long-term trend for 0-700 m and 700-2000 m \r\nlayers have warmed 4.35 +- 0.8 and 2.25 +- 0.64 ZJ yr-1 from between \r\nthe averages of 1971-1990 and 1998-2017 and is attributed \r\nto anthropogenic influences. It is likely1\r\n the ocean warming has \r\ncontinued in the abyssal and deep ocean below 2000 m (southern \r\nhemisphere and Southern Ocean). {1.8.1, 1.2, 5.2.2}"


id: 7991eb67d9f4398b333ad3d57d816319
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18591
content:
"There is a growing consensus that the open ocean is losing \r\noxygen overall with a very likely loss of 0.5-3.3% between \r\n1970-2010 from the ocean surface to 1000  m (medium \r\nconfidence). Globally, the oxygen loss due to warming is reinforced by \r\nother processes associated with ocean physics and biogeochemistry, \r\nwhich cause the majority of the observed oxygen decline (high \r\nconfidence). The oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are expanding by \r\na very likely range of 3-8%, most notably in the tropical oceans, but \r\nthere is substantial decadal variability that affects the attribution \r\nof the overall oxygen declines to human activity in tropical regions \r\n(high confidence). {5.2.2.4}"


id: 264bb928e3f9dfac3e28a9e1fb298a76
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3907
content:
"In response to ocean warming and increased stratification, \r\nopen ocean nutrient cycles are being perturbed and there \r\nis high confidence that this is having a regionally variable \r\nimpact on primary producers. There is currently low confidence\r\nin appraising past open ocean productivity trends, including those \r\ndetermined by satellites, due to newly identified region-specific \r\ndrivers of microbial growth and the lack of corroborating in situ time \r\nseries datasets. {5.2.2.5, 5.2.2.6}"


id: 4637f00c53a07a590a356718fd806762
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9574
content:
"It is likely that the rate of ocean warming has increased since \r\n1993. The 0-700 m and 700-2000 m layers of the ocean have \r\nwarmed by 3.22 +- 1.61 ZJ and 0.97 +- 0.64 ZJ from 1969 to 1993, and \r\n6.28 +- 0.48 ZJ and 3.86 +- 2.09 ZJ from 1993 to 2017. This represents \r\nat least a two-fold increase in heat uptake. {Table 5.1, 5.2.2}"


id: b04e1e90713f75995e87e9debae3ffd1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28253
content:
"The upper ocean is very likely to have been stratifying since \r\n1970. Observed warming and high-latitude freshening are making \r\nthe surface ocean less dense over time relative to the deeper ocean \r\n(high confidence2\r\n) and inhibiting the exchange between surface and \r\ndeep waters. The upper 200 m stratification increase is in the very \r\nlikely range of between 2.18-2.42% from 1970 to 2017. {5.2.2}"


id: ddb80a1a4f207d85c8790922b58618d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36268
content:
"Ocean warming has contributed to observed changes in \r\nbiogeography of organisms ranging from phytoplankton to \r\nmarine mammals (high confidence), consequently changing \r\ncommunity composition (high confidence), and in some \r\ncases, altering interactions between organisms (medium \r\nconfidence). Observed rate of range shifts since the 1950s and its "


id: 2183b96268af5debf8e6314938c83dd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3107
content:
"very likely range are estimated to be 51.5 +- 33.3 km per decade \r\nand 29.0 +- 15.5 km per decade for organisms in the epipelagic and \r\nseafloor ecosystems, respectively. The direction of the majority of \r\nthe shifts of epipelagic organisms are consistent with a response to \r\nwarming (high confidence). {5.2.3, 5.3}"


id: ba5b59349d17a297e4335df0b8a17f64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30005
content:
"confidence), a reduction in their biodiversity and abundance have \r\nbeen observed in naturally-acidified rocky reef ecosystems (medium \r\nconfidence). Increased nutrient and organic matter loads in estuaries \r\nsince the 1970s have exacerbated the effects of warming on bacterial \r\nrespiration and eutrophication, leading to expansion of hypoxic areas \r\n(high confidence). {5.3.1, 5.3.2, 5.3.4, 5.3.6}"


id: 32e49fac5f9593b759be6744d162c7ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6220
content:
"Warming-induced range expansion of tropical species to higher \r\nlatitudes has led to increased grazing on some coral reefs, rocky \r\nreefs, seagrass meadows and epipelagic ecosystems, leading \r\nto altered ecosystem structure (medium confidence). Warming, \r\nsea level rise (SLR) and enhanced loads of nutrients and sediments in \r\ndeltas have contributed to salinisation and deoxygenation in estuaries \r\n(high confidence), and have caused upstream redistribution of benthic \r\nand pelagic species according to their tolerance limits (medium \r\nconfidence). {5.3.4, 5.3.5, 5.3.6, 5.2.3}"


id: 8a3d81c77f8ec8680c9f9644e745cbb3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21499
content:
"Coastal and near-shore ecosystems including salt marshes, \r\nmangrove forests and vegetated dunes in sandy beaches have \r\na varying capacity to build vertically and expand laterally in \r\nresponse to SLR. These ecosystems provide important services \r\nincluding coastal protection, carbon sequestration and habitat for \r\ndiverse biota (high confidence). The carbon emission associated \r\nwith the loss of vegetated coastal ecosystems is estimated to be \r\n0.04-1.46  Gt C yr-1 (high confidence). The natural capacity of \r\necosystems to adapt to climate impacts may be limited by human \r\nactivities that fragment wetland habitats and restrict landward \r\nmigration (high confidence). {5.3.2, 5.3.3, 5.4.1, 5.5.1}"


id: 5b7a92fad6665de3ee210fa8251656e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13337
content:
"Fisheries catches and their composition in many regions are \r\nalready impacted by the effects of warming and changing \r\nprimary production on growth, reproduction and survival of fish \r\nstocks (high confidence). Ocean warming and changes in primary \r\nproduction since the 20th century are related to changes in productivity \r\nof many fish stocks (high confidence), with an average decrease of \r\napproximately 3% per decade in population replenishment and 4.1% \r\n(very likely range of 9.0% decline to 0.3% increase) in maximum \r\ncatch potential (robust evidence, low agreement between fish stocks, \r\nmedium confidence). Species composition of fisheries catches since \r\nthe 1970s in many shelf seas ecosystems of the world is increasingly \r\ndominated by warm water species (medium confidence). {5.2.3, 5.4.1}"


id: cfb817a0ce6bade252d76b126015eeb6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33903
content:
"Three out of the four major Eastern Boundary Upwelling \r\nSystems (EBUS) have shown large-scale wind intensification \r\nin the past 60 years (high confidence). However, the interaction \r\nof coastal warming and local winds may have affected upwelling \r\nstrength, with the direction of changes varies between and within \r\nEBUS (low confidence). Increasing trends in ocean acidification in \r\nthe California Current EBUS and deoxygenation in California Current \r\nand Humboldt Current EBUS are observed in the last few decades \r\n(high confidence), although there is  low confidence  to distinguish \r\nanthropogenic forcing from internal climate variability. The expanding \r\nCalifornia EBUS OMZ has altered ecosystem structure and fisheries \r\ncatches (medium confidence). {Box 5.3}"


id: 9d1399e0baa76f1ee601b76e7a348afb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24875
content:
"Warming-induced changes in spatial distribution and abundance \r\nof fish stocks have already challenged the management of \r\nsome important fisheries and their economic benefits (high \r\nconfidence). For existing international and national ocean and fisheries \r\ngovernance, there are concerns about the reduced effectiveness to \r\nachieve mandated ecological, economic, and social objectives because \r\nof observed climate impacts on fisheries resources (high confidence).\r\n{5.4.2, 5.5.2}"


id: a5cc4bb089ebd13ae09b53066fc98d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26394
content:
"Since the early 1980s, the occurrence of harmful algal blooms \r\n(HABs) and pathogenic organisms (e.g.,  Vibrio) has increased \r\nin coastal areas in response to warming, deoxygenation and \r\neutrophication, with negative impacts on food provisioning, \r\ntourism, the economy and human health (high confidence). These \r\nimpacts depend on species-specific responses to the interactive effects \r\nof climate change and other human drivers (e.g.,  pollution). Human \r\ncommunities in poorly monitored areas are among the most vulnerable \r\nto these biological hazards (medium confidence). {Box 5.4, 5.4.2}"


id: 79a5365ffaa342e361e985f53f197e21
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18605
content:
"Many frameworks for climate resilient coastal adaptation \r\nhave been developed since AR5, with substantial variations \r\nin approach between and within countries, and across \r\ndevelopment status (high confidence). Few studies have assessed \r\nthe success of implementing these frameworks due to the time-lag \r\nbetween implementation, monitoring, evaluation and reporting \r\n(medium confidence). {5.5.2}"


id: 20dd6d31ebc769cd925649a4e9ff91f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3001
content:
"Climate models project significant changes in the ocean state \r\nover the coming century. Under the high emissions scenario \r\n(Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5) the impacts \r\nby 2090 are substantially larger and more widespread than for "


id: 92a5609d3de1d29704edcc98e3619d43
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23020
content:
"the low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) throughout the surface \r\nand deep ocean, including: warming (virtually certain); ocean \r\nacidification (virtually certain); decreased stability of mineral \r\nforms of calcite (virtually certain); oxygen loss (very likely); \r\nreduced near-surface nutrients (likely as not); decreased net \r\nprimary productivity (high confidence); reduced fish production \r\n(likely) and loss of key ecosystems services (medium confidence) \r\nthat are important for human well-being and sustainable \r\ndevelopment. {5.2.2, Box 5.1, 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.4}"


id: c756de76d6f538ea5353dcfe47fd4cff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32386
content:
"loss is very likely smaller in area for the RCP2.6 scenario in the \r\n21st century and by 2090 the emerged area is declining. {5.2.2.4, \r\nBox 5.1 Figure 1}"


id: 9283b53fdb72d267a7e2eb787f359f92
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22998
content:
"Overall, nitrate concentrations in the upper 100 m are very \r\nlikely to decline by 9-14% across CMIP5 models by 2081-2100, \r\nrelative to 2006-2015, in response to increased stratification \r\nfor RCP8.5, with medium confidence in these projections due \r\nto the limited evidence of past changes that can be robustly \r\nunderstood and reproduced by models. There is low confidence\r\nregarding projected increases in surface ocean iron levels due to \r\nsystemic uncertainties in these models. {5.2.2.5}"


id: f4e188498504be123f39f6db1aef3f6d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40449
content:
"By 2100 the ocean is very likely to warm by 2 to 4 times as much \r\nfor low emissions (RCP2.6) and 5 to 7 times as much for the \r\nhigh emissions scenario (RCP8.5) compared with the observed \r\nchanges since 1970. The 0-2000 m layer of the ocean is projected to \r\nwarm by a further 2150 ZJ (very likely range 1710-2790 ZJ) between \r\n2017 and 2100 for the RCP8.5 scenario. The 0-2000 m layer is \r\nprojected to warm by 900 ZJ (very likely range 650-1340 ZJ) by 2100 \r\nfor the RCP2.6 scenario, and the overall warming of the ocean will \r\ncontinue this century even after radiative forcing and mean surface \r\ntemperatures stabilise (high confidence). {5.2.2.2}"


id: edd83a25060f989b8c905d7c605b97cf
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39207
content:
"The upper ocean will continue to stratify. By the end of the \r\ncentury the annual mean stratification of the top 200 m (averaged \r\nbetween 60oS-60oN relative to the 1986-2005 period) is projected \r\nto increase in the very likely range of 1-9% and 12-30% for RCP2.6 \r\nand RCP8.5 respectively. {5.2.2.2}"


id: bad57d43f10b767b1264964f6c3a5f7b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30082
content:
"It is very likely that the majority of coastal regions will \r\nexperience statistically significant changes in tidal amplitudes \r\nover the course of the 21st century. The sign and amplitude of \r\nlocal changes to tides are very likely to be impacted by both human \r\ncoastal adaptation measures and climate drivers. {5.2.2.2.3}"


id: 71478920c905ec040c2b4fb400ff3126
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17189
content:
"It is virtually certain that surface ocean pH will decline, by \r\n0.036-0.042 or 0.287-0.29 pH units by 2081-2100, relative to \r\n2006-2015, for the RCP2.6 or RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. \r\nThese pH changes are very likely to cause the Arctic and Southern \r\nOceans, as well as the North Pacific and Northwestern Atlantic \r\nOceans to become corrosive for the major mineral forms of calcium \r\ncarbonate under RCP8.5, but these changes are virtually certain to \r\nbe avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario. There is increasing evidence \r\nof an increase in the seasonal exposure to acidified conditions in the \r\nfuture (high confidence), with a very likely increase in the amplitude \r\nof seasonal cycle of hydrogen iron concentrations of 71-90% by \r\n2100, relative to 2000 for the RCP8.5 scenario, especially at high \r\nlatitudes. {5.2.2.3}"


id: 98251f427b6c540a2312e13d2cf78803
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23980
content:
"Simulated ocean warming and changes in NPP during the 21st \r\ncentury are projected to alter community structure of marine \r\norganisms (high confidence), reduce global marine animal \r\nbiomass (medium confidence) and the maximum potential \r\ncatches of fish stocks (medium confidence) with regional \r\ndifferences in the direction and magnitude of changes (high \r\nconfidence). The global biomass of marine animals, including those \r\nthat contribute to fisheries, is projected to decrease with a very likely\r\nrange under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 of 4.3 +- 2.0% and 15.0 +- 5.9%, \r\nrespectively, by 2080-2099 relative to 1986-2005. The maximum "


id: 3c99d604f84f05826e0918063b1c4949
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7852
content:
"Oxygen is projected to decline further. Globally, the oxygen \r\ncontent of the ocean is very likely to decline by 3.2-3.7% by \r\n2081-2100, relative to 2006-2015, for the RCP8.5 scenario or by \r\n1.6-2.0% for the RCP2.6 scenario. The volume of the oceans OMZ \r\nis projected to grow by a very likely range of 7.0 +- 5.6% by 2100 \r\nduring the RCP8.5 scenario, relative to 1850-1900. The climate \r\nsignal of oxygen loss will very likely emerge from the historical \r\nclimate by 2050 with a very likely range of 59-80% of ocean area \r\nbeing affected by 2031-2050 and rising with a very likely range \r\nof 79-91% by 2081-2100 (RCP8.5). The emergence of oxygen "


id: 9fe10ce9c948ddc0767b9c26eb3ce636
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25337
content:
"catch potential is projected to decrease by 3.4% to 6.4% (RCP2.6) \r\nand 20.5% to 24.1% (RCP8.5) in the 21st century. {5.4.1}"


id: 5b0cc8d7822df4b58de1f530c6384158
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13272
content:
"Projected decreases in global marine animal biomass and \r\nfish catch potential could elevate the risk of impacts on \r\nincome, livelihood and food security of the dependent human \r\ncommunities (medium confidence). Projected climate change \r\nimpacts on fisheries also increase the risk of potential conflicts among \r\nfishery area users and authorities or among different communities \r\nwithin the same country (medium confidence), exacerbated through \r\ncompeting resource exploitation from international actors and \r\nmal-adapted policies (low confidence). {5.2.3, 5.4, 5.5.3}"


id: b230f9d8f6909a8b47c3d2f38cc0e428
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28580
content:
"Projected decrease in upper ocean export of organic carbon \r\nto the deep seafloor is expected to result in a loss of animal \r\nbiomass on the deep seafloor by 5.2-17.6% by 2090-2100 \r\ncompared to the present (2006-2015) under RCP8.5 with \r\nregional variations (medium confidence). Some increases are \r\nprojected in the polar regions, due to enhanced stratification in \r\nthe surface ocean, reduced primary production and shifts towards \r\nsmall phytoplankton (medium confidence). The projected impacts on \r\nbiomass in the abyssal seafloor are larger under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 \r\n(very likely). The increase in climatic hazards beyond thresholds of \r\ntolerance of deep sea organisms will increase the risk of loss of \r\nbiodiversity and impacts on functioning of deep water column and \r\nseafloor that is important to support ecosystem services, such as \r\ncarbon sequestration (medium confidence). {5.2.4}"


id: 8959e08909b5fefaebdfa8e02562b974
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21341
content:
"Almost all coral reefs will degrade from their current state, even \r\nif global warming remains below 2oC (very high confidence), \r\nand the remaining shallow coral reef communities will differ \r\nin species composition and diversity from present reefs (very \r\nhigh confidence). These declines in coral reef health will greatly \r\ndiminish the services they provide to society, such as food provision \r\n(high confidence), coastal protection (high confidence) and tourism \r\n(medium confidence). {5.3.4, 5.4.1}"


id: 9261da1b001ac5bc5a2190ec6a17dafe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22975
content:
"Multiple hazards of warming, deoxygenation, aragonite under\u0002saturation and decrease in flux of organic carbon from the \r\nsurface ocean will decrease calcification and exacerbate the \r\nbioerosion and dissolution of the non-living component of cold \r\nwater coral. Habitat-forming, cold water corals will be vulnerable \r\nwhere temperature and oxygen exceed the species' thresholds \r\n(medium confidence). Reduced particulate food supply is projected \r\nto be experienced by 95% of cold water coral ecosystems by 2100 \r\nunder RCP8.5 relative to the present, leading to a very likely range of \r\n8.6 +- 2% biomass loss (medium confidence). {5.2.4, Box 5.2}"


id: c9095532910f79f68f3d2a013f668fbd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32689
content:
"Expected coastal ecosystem responses over the 21st century \r\nare habitat contraction, migration and loss of biodiversity \r\nand functionality. Pervasive human coastal disturbances will limit \r\nnatural ecosystem adaptation to climate hazards (high confidence). \r\nGlobal coastal wetlands will lose between 20-90% of their area "


id: 285f7ddb404da059d8bc7a2b38715511
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4308
content:
"Climate change impacts on ecosystems and their goods \r\nand services threatens key cultural dimensions of lives and \r\nlivelihoods. These threats include erosion of Indigenous and "


id: 85d229d32fd5d5c3239b0e863a919b68
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20686
content:
"non-indigenous culture, their knowledge about the ocean and \r\nknowledge transmission, reduced access to traditional food, loss \r\nof opportunities for aesthetic and spiritual appreciation of the \r\necosystems, and marine recreational activities (medium confidence). \r\nUltimately, these can lead to the loss of part of people's cultural \r\nidentity and values beyond the rate at which identify and values can \r\nbe adjusted or substituted (medium confidence). {5.4.2}"


id: 389d04d6e5ad6171a1cf954b5eb49d6a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7165
content:
"gases (medium confidence). Conservation of these habitats would \r\nalso sustain the wide range of ecosystem services they provide and \r\nassist with climate adaptation through improving critical habitats \r\nfor biodiversity, enhancing local fisheries production, and protecting \r\ncoastal communities from SLR and storm events (high confidence). \r\nThe climate mitigation effectiveness of other natural carbon removal \r\nprocesses in coastal waters, such as seaweed ecosystems and \r\nproposed non-biological marine CO2 removal methods, are smaller or \r\ncurrently have higher associated uncertainties. Seaweed aquaculture \r\nwarrants further research attention. {5.5.1.1, 5.5.1.1, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, \r\n5.5.1.1.3, 5.5.1.1.4}"


id: 81338d2975be1f8530fc793917b46eab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19864
content:
"Climate change increases the exposure and bioaccumulation \r\nof contaminants such as persistent organic pollutants and \r\nmercury (medium confidence), and their risk of impacts on \r\nmarine ecosystems and seafood safety (high agreement, \r\nmedium evidence, medium confidence). Such risks are particularly \r\nlarge for top predators and for human communities that have high \r\nconsumption on these organisms, including coastal Indigenous \r\ncommunities (medium confidence). {5.4.2}"


id: 29ba75de3f763d54a748a6ac5ededb5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4565
content:
"Shifting distributions of fish stocks between governance \r\njurisdictions will increase the risk of potential conflicts among \r\nfishery area users and authorities or different communities \r\nwithin the same country (medium confidence). These fishery \r\ngovernance related risks are widespread under high emissions \r\nscenarios with regional hotspots (medium confidence), and highlight \r\nthe limits of existing natural resource management frameworks for \r\naddressing ecosystem change (high confidence). {5.2.5, 5.4.2.1.3, \r\n5.5, 5.5.2}"


id: b6e112f5c53ce420ab75a7aff1f534f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29374
content:
"Socioinstitutional adaptation responses are more frequently \r\nreported in the literature than ecosystem-based and built \r\ninfrastructure approaches. Hard engineering responses are \r\nmore effective when supported by ecosystem-based adaptation \r\napproaches (high agreement), and both approaches are enhanced by \r\ncombining with socioinstitutional approaches for adaptation (high \r\nconfidence). Stakeholder engagement is necessary (robust evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). {5.5.2}"


id: 5b1d7d857faa4de241091d395443b6b9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13280
content:
"There is clear evidence for observed climate change impacts \r\nthroughout the ocean with consequences for human \r\ncommunities and require options to reduce risks and impacts. \r\nCoastal blue carbon can contribute to mitigation for many \r\nnations but its global scope is modest (offset of <2% of \r\ncurrent emissions) (likely). Some ocean indices are expected \r\nto emerge earlier than others (e.g.,  warming, acidification \r\nand effects on fish stocks) and could therefore be used to \r\nprioritise planning and building resilience. The survival of \r\nsome keystone ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs) are at risk, while \r\ngovernance structures are not well-matched to the spatial and \r\ntemporal scale of climate change impacts on ocean systems. \r\nEcosystem restoration may be able to locally reduce climate \r\nrisks (medium confidence) but at relatively high cost and \r\neffectiveness limited to low emissions scenarios and to less \r\nsensitive systems (high confidence). {5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5}"


id: ebee2c28c3a4cc5bb9bc3316a5d80265
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38874
content:
"Ecosystem-based adaptation is a cost-effective coastal \r\nprotection tool that can have many co-benefits, including \r\nsupporting livelihoods, contributing to carbon sequestration \r\nand the provision of a  range of other valuable ecosystem \r\nservices (high confidence). Such adaptation does, however, assume \r\nthat the climate can be stabilised. Under changing climatic conditions \r\nthere are limits to the effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation, \r\nand these limits are currently difficult to determine. {5.5.2.1}"


id: 5daa3d2aab020e130177edd0e5a0ba75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13773
content:
"Coastal blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, salt \r\nmarshes and seagrasses, can help reduce the risks and impacts \r\nof climate change, with multiple co-benefits. Some 151 countries \r\naround the world contain at least one of these coastal blue carbon \r\necosystems and 71 countries contain all three. Below-ground carbon \r\nstorage in vegetated marine habitats can be up to 1000 tC ha-1, much \r\nhigher than most terrestrial ecosystems (high confidence). Successful \r\nimplementation of measures to maintain and promote carbon \r\nstorage in such coastal ecosystems could assist several countries in \r\nachieving a balance between emissions and removals of greenhouse "


id: 8c597f013d3fcd3303c34adf86e205ac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21869
content:
"Socioinstitutional adaptation responses, including community\u0002based adaptation, capacity-building, participatory processes, \r\ninstitutional support for adaptation planning and support \r\nmechanisms for communities are important tools to address \r\nclimate change impacts (high confidence). For fisheries \r\nmanagement, improving coordination of integrated coastal \r\nmanagement and marine protected areas (MPAs) have emerged in \r\nthe literature as important adaptation governance responses (robust \r\nevidence, medium agreement). {5.5.2.2, 5.5.2.6}"


id: 5c11d3e5c425cbbdb7f48fefe79fbc69
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13457
content:
"Observed widespread decline in warm water corals has led \r\nto the consideration of alternative restoration approaches \r\nto enhance climate resilience. Approaches, such as 'coral reef \r\ngardening' have been tested, and ecological engineering and other \r\napproaches such as assisted evolution, colonisation and chimerism \r\nare being researched for reef restoration. However, the effectiveness \r\nof these approaches to increase resilience to climate stressors and \r\ntheir large-scale implementation for reef restoration will be limited \r\nunless warming and ocean acidification are rapidly controlled (high \r\nconfidence). {Box 5.5, 5.5.2}"


id: da4135da8e6c78068a893ee27802023e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35699
content:
"Existing ocean governance structures are already facing \r\nmulti-dimensional, scale-related challenges because of climate \r\nchange. This trend of increasing complexity will continue (high \r\nconfidence). The mechanisms for the governance of marine Areas \r\nBeyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ), such as ocean acidification, \r\nwould benefit from further development (high confidence). There \r\nis also scope to increase the overall effectiveness of international \r\nand national ocean governance regimes by increasing cooperation, \r\nintegration and widening participation (medium confidence). Diverse \r\nadaptations of ocean related governance are being tried, and some are \r\nproducing promising results. However, rigorous evaluation is needed of \r\nthe effectiveness of these adaptations in achieving their goals. {5.5.3}"


id: 5ac98c771bffdd9420eae9628c203f11
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13228
content:
"There are a broad range of identified barriers and limits \r\nfor adaptation to climate change in ecosystems and human \r\nsystems (high confidence). Limitations include the space that \r\necosystems require, non-climatic drivers and human impacts that need \r\nto be addressed as part of the adaptation response, the lowering of \r\nadaptive capacity of ecosystems because of climate change, and the \r\nslower ecosystem recovery rates relative to the recurrence of climate \r\nimpacts, availability of technology, knowledge and financial support \r\nand existing governance structures (medium confidence). {5.5.2}"


id: b903002870688316d97272dd68194a6e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29753
content:
"The ocean is a key component of the Earth system (Chapter 1) as \r\nit provides essential life supporting services (Inniss et  al. 2017). \r\nFor example, it stores heat trapped in the atmosphere caused by \r\nincreasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, it masks and slows \r\nsurface warming, it stores excess carbon dioxide and is an important \r\ncomponent of global biogeochemical cycles. The ocean is the home \r\nto the largest continuous ecosystem, provides habitats for rich marine \r\nbiodiversity, is an essential source of food and contributes to human \r\nhealth, livelihood and security. The ocean also supports other services \r\nto humans, for example, transport and trade, tourism, renewable \r\nenergy, and cultural services such as aesthetic appeal, local and \r\ntraditional knowledge and religious practices. Governance of the ocean \r\nhas a unique set of challenges and opportunities compared with land \r\nsystems and requiring different treatment under a changing climate."


id: 39b86c4bfd874b1cbbdf15280441ab8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7366
content:
"This chapter covers both regional and global scales and across natural \r\nand human systems. Chapter 3 covers the polar regions, including their \r\noceans, Chapter 4 covers sea level rise and its implications, and Chapter \r\n6 covers extremes and abrupt events. This chapter uses IPCC calibrated \r\nlanguage around scientific uncertainty, as described in Section 1.8.3. \r\nTwo emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, are used for projections \r\nof climate change (see Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1)."


id: 99eee78d2089ec68ae0c89be70312aab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24311
content:
"AR5 from Working Group I (WGI) showed that there are ongoing \r\nchanges to the physical and chemical state of the ocean. The AR5 WGI \r\nreport (IPCC, 2013) concluded that (1) 'ocean warming dominates \r\nthe increased energy stored in the climate system with more than \r\n90% of the energy accumulated since 1971'; (2) 'the ocean has \r\nabsorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon causing \r\nocean acidification' since pre-industrial times; and (3) it is 'extremely \r\nlikely that human influence has been the dominant cause of warming \r\nsince mid 20th century'."


id: f1b393f462bc46aa090971d9fcaaa423
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39907
content:
"This section assesses changes in the ocean. It includes the physical \r\nand chemical properties (Section 5.2.2), their impacts on the pelagic \r\necosystem (Section 5.2.3) and deep seafloor system (Section 5.2.4). \r\nIn this assessment, the open ocean and deep seafloor includes areas \r\nwhere the water column is deeper than 200 m; it is the main subject \r\nof Section 5.2. Coastal and shelf seas are primarily discussed in \r\nSection 5.3."


id: b557bfaba4bab55e3fd5ac7ca1ff2fea
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29136
content:
"The IPCC AR5 Working Group II (WGII) concluded that changes in \r\nthe ocean such as warming, acidification and deoxygenation are \r\naffecting marine life from molecular processes to organisms and \r\necosystems, with major impacts on the use of marine systems by \r\nhuman societies (Portner, 2012). IPCC Special Report on the Impacts \r\nof Global Warming of 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels and related \r\nglobal greenhouse gas emission pathways (SR15) also concluded \r\nthat reducing these risks by 'limiting warming to 1.5oC above \r\npre-industrial levels would require transformative systemic change, \r\nintegrated with sustainable development' and that 'adaptation needs \r\nwill be lower in a 1.5oC world compared to a 2oC world.' (de Coninck \r\net al. 2018; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018)."


id: 882a065daead34f845ae1e5295a6ccc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21107
content:
"The ocean is getting progressively warmer, with parallel changes in \r\nocean chemistry such as acidification and oxygen loss, as documented \r\nin the AR5 (Rhein et  al. 2013). The global scale warming and \r\nacidification trends are readily detectable in oceanic observations, \r\nwell understood scientifically, and consistently projected by ESMs. \r\nEach of these has been directly attributed to anthropogenic forcing \r\nfrom changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols \r\n(Bindoff et  al. 2013). These trends in the global average ocean \r\ntemperature will continue for centuries after the anthropogenic \r\nforcing is stabilised (Collins et al. 2013)."


id: fb30ceb90b6a19ee682a3ae9f68533c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41564
content:
"This report updates earlier assessments, evaluating new research \r\nand knowledge regarding changing ocean climate and ecosystems, \r\nrisks to ecosystem services, and vulnerability of the dependent \r\ncommunities including governance. It also delves into changes the \r\nocean that were beyond the scope of the previous reports. Radiation \r\nmanagement techniques (also known as sunlight reflection methods) \r\nare excluded here. Such geo-engineering approaches are addressed \r\nin the SR15. However, natural carbon uptake and stores in the marine \r\nenvironment are included (Section 5.5.1)."


id: 6d0d5237c6b81c9f641b60bba21d051
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16465
content:
"This section summarises our emerging understanding of the primary \r\nchanges to the ocean, along with an assessment of several key areas \r\nof scientific uncertainty about these changes. Because many of these \r\nlong-term trends have already been extensively discussed in previous \r\nassessments (IPCC, 2013), much of this summary of the physical \r\nchanges is brief except where there are significant new findings."


id: 4e28f988e0a3ee85fcf4fb9e14c70104
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11018
content:
"attribution and projection of risk and impacts on ecosystems \r\n(Sections 5.2.3, 5.2.4 and 5.3), ecosystem services (Section 5.4.1) and \r\nhuman well-being (Section 5.4.2) under climate change."


id: 349190fbb0c65311b41a04131aa258c3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6484
content:
"As AR5 concluded, the ocean is warming as a direct result of \r\nanthropogenic changes to the radiative properties of the atmosphere \r\nand the heat budget of the Earth (very likely) (Bindoff et al. 2013). \r\nOver the past few decades our ocean observing system has measured \r\nan increase in ocean temperature (Figure 5.1). This temperature \r\nincrease corresponds to an uptake of over 90% of the excess heat \r\naccumulated in the Earth system over this period (Bindoff et al. 2013; \r\nRhein et al. 2013). This heat in the ocean also causes it to expand and \r\nhas contributed about 43% of the observed global mean SLR from \r\n1970-2015 (Section 4.2.2.3.6)."


id: 3f764ccd9952b0df0cfca4a21017176f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8352
content:
"Based on these new published methods and revised atlases we \r\nupdate the estimates for ocean heat uptake (Table 5.1, and SM5.1). \r\nFor all of the periods assessed in Table 5.1, it is virtually certain\r\nthat the upper ocean (0-700 m) has warmed. These results are \r\nconsistent with earlier research into the duration of record needed \r\nto detect a significant signal in global ocean heat content (Gleckler \r\net al. 2012). Critically, the high confidence and high agreement in \r\nthe ocean temperature data means we can detect discernable rates \r\nof increase in ocean heat uptake (Gleckler et al. 2012; Cheng et al. \r\n2019). The rate of heat uptake in the upper ocean (0-700 m) is very \r\nlikely higher in the 1993-2017 (or 2005-2017) period compared with \r\nthe 1969-1993 period (see Table 5.1). The deeper layer (700-2000 m) \r\nheat uptake rate is likely to be higher in the 1993-2017 period \r\ncompared with the 1969-1993 period."


id: 2ef550479a7ecf6bf92fcaffa8cbd43c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5537
content:
"Table 5.1 | The assessed rate of increase in ocean heat content in the two depth layers 0-700 m and 700-2000 m and their very likely ranges. Fluxes in W m-2 are \r\naveraged over the Earth's entire surface area. The four periods cover earlier and more recent trends; the 2005-2017 period has the most complete interior ocean \r\ndata coverage and the greatest consistency between estimates, while longer trends are better for distinguishing between forced changes and internal variability. These \r\nobservationally-estimated rates come from an assessment of the recent research (see SM5.1), while the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth \r\nSystem Models (ESM) estimates are based on a combined 28-member ensemble of historical, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 simulations. "


id: 24b4d0134dde6bde8aa3485005fb2bdd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3655
content:
"Updated observationally-based estimates of ocean heat uptake \r\nare consistent with simulations of equivalent time-periods from an \r\nensemble of CMIP5 ESMs (Table 5.1 and the inset panel in Figure 5.1) \r\n(high confidence), once the limitations of the historical ocean observing \r\nnetwork and the internally generated variability with a single realisation \r\nof the real world are taken into account (see Section 5.2.2.2). Following \r\nthe CMIP5 protocol, the ESMs are radiatively forced with observationally \r\nderived estimates of greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosols, \r\nincluding natural forcing variations from volcanic eruptions and solar \r\nforcing, through 2005; after 2006 each of the ESMs uses either the \r\nRCP2.6 or RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. "


id: bd10f4bc322daf736c5fbe7f09c46e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30511
content:
"The direct comparison of the observed changes in ocean heat content \r\nand the simulated historical changes is undertaken to detect climate \r\nchange, to attribute the causes of climate change to the forcings in \r\nthe system, and to evaluate the performance of ESMs. Attribution \r\nstudies also reject competing hypotheses to explain the global ocean \r\nchanges such as natural forcing from solar variability or volcanic \r\neruptions (see Section 1.3) (Bindoff et  al. 2013). Detection and \r\nattribution studies have since been used to detect changes in the \r\nrate of ocean heat uptake and to attribute these changes to human \r\nactivity (Gleckler et al. 2016)."


id: d5533775a0281a5b698ca8cf429c5d15
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34853
content:
"The very likely ranges of the observed trends of heat uptake for the four \r\nperiods and two layers all fall within the very likely range of simulated \r\nheat uptake from the ESM ensemble (Table 5.1). The difference between \r\nobservations and average of the simulations in the upper ocean is an \r\noverestimate of heat uptake by about 20% and for the deeper layer \r\nthere an underestimate by a similar amount, but this difference is still \r\nwell within the very likely range from the ensemble of simulations. \r\nThe overall consistency between observationally-based estimates and "


id: cac9101e9eace772e54d09afe05da7cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33017
content:
"ESM simulations of the historical period gives greater confidence in \r\nthe projections; it is very likely that historical simulations agree with \r\nobservations of the global ocean heat uptake (Table 5.1)."


id: 860934843130298dbbb7e9186cfba1e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20725
content:
"While the collection of the worlds' ESMs have been criticised for \r\nhaving an ensemble mean that does not exhibit the observed 'hiatus' \r\nor 'slowdown' of global mean surface temperature increase in the early \r\n21st century (Meehl et al. 2011; Trenberth et al. 2016), it is increasingly "


id: bb82a15651bbc33b47a27381f8d33baa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30210
content:
"that has been submerged for so long that it has not yet experienced \r\nsignificant anthropogenic climate change (Armour et al. 2016). Most \r\nof these projected warming patterns are broadly consistent across \r\nthe current and previous generations of climate models (Mitchell \r\net al. 1995; Collins et al. 2014) as well as observations and theoretical \r\nunderstanding. These multiple lines of evidence give high confidence\r\nthat the projections describe the changes in the real world (high \r\nagreement, robust evidence)."


id: c4ea9e5af0d53c8911f41b9b9b73f2e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31952
content:
"clear that this is at least in part due to the redistribution of heat within \r\nthe climate system from the surface into the interior ocean and between \r\nocean basins. Individual realisations of ESMs do show decades with \r\nslow increases in mean surface temperature change comparable to \r\nwhat was observed, even though these cases exhibit continued interior \r\nocean heat uptake, and every ensemble member exhibits surface \r\nwarming closer to the ensemble-mean over multi-decadal timescales \r\n(Meehl et al. 2011; England et al. 2015; Knutson et al. 2016)."


id: 9724b1ed4776405833de3284f57ccbfe
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23783
content:
"Identifying the specific patterns of anthropogenic climate changes in \r\noceanic observations is complicated by the presence of basin-scale \r\nnatural variability with timescales ranging from tidal to multi-decadal, \r\nand due to the difficulties associated with maintaining high-precision \r\nobserving systems spanning the ocean basins and limited \r\nobservational coverage of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere \r\nbefore 2006 (Rhein et al. 2013). Inferences based on oceanographic \r\nobservations from the 1970s onward show wide-spread warming \r\nof the upper 700 m (Figure 5.2a), in broad agreement with the "


id: a53ff6442275b19e4c1b3a9d24f677ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26304
content:
"variability is large enough to mask the trends (e.g.,  the Eastern \r\nTropical Pacific, Northwest Atlantic, and Kurushio extension east of \r\nJapan, which are stippled in Figure 5.2b), or where the observational \r\ncoverage early in the record is limited and different analyses can \r\ndisagree about trends (e.g.,  the Southern Ocean and extratropical \r\nSouth Pacific). When internal variability is taken into account, the "


id: fe3c81343c54599a391388672b994d5a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42096
content:
"ensemble of historical CMIP5 ESM simulations (Figure 5.2b). These \r\nESMs indicate that anthropogenic regional warming over the past \r\nhalf-century should be discernable at the 95% confidence level in \r\nmuch of the upper oceans (un-stippled areas in Figure 5.2b). Most \r\nof the areas where observational analyses (Figure 5.2a) exhibit \r\nlong-term cooling are either regions where the internally generated "


id: 7a2a272b527e474e0115dcf7f9243f63
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18691
content:
"broad consistency in the magnitude and regional distribution of \r\nobserved and simulated 50-year trends gives confidence to the ESM \r\nprojections of longer-term oceanic changes described previously."


id: baf8b5283d2ec228908b5f917aeeda73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30108
content:
"Yeager et al. 2015) even though they resemble expected longer-term \r\nanthropogenically forced trends. Substantial decadal-scale warming \r\nand cooling trends in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans can arise \r\nfrom natural El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean \r\nDipole variability (Han et al. 2014). Large ensembles of freely running \r\nCMIP5 ESM simulations also show that internal variability can \r\ndominate the regional manifestation of the anthropogenic climate \r\nsignal on decadal timescales (Kay et al. 2014). This is illustrated by the \r\ndiffering warming trends in Figure 5.2e and 5.2f from two identical \r\nESMs that differ only in the weather in their 1850 initial conditions, \r\naveraged over the whole 21st century, by contrast, the ensemble of \r\nCMIP5 models project statistically significant anthropogenic regional \r\nupper 700 m heat content trends almost everywhere (Figure 5.2c)."


id: e1b6157088d0327ae1f54c351480fa11
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36979
content:
"The wind-driven ocean circulation at the end of the 21st century is \r\nexpected to be qualitatively similar to that in the present day, even as \r\nimportant buoyancy-loss driven overturning circulations are expected \r\nto weaken. ESM projections suggest that some major ocean current \r\ntransports will exhibit a modest increase (such as the Kuroshio "


id: 55813f3667ea004be99b9dc4afc0fe95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12315
content:
"Oscillation (NAO) (e.g., Yashayaev, 2007; Desbruyeres et  al. 2014) \r\nor longer-term weakening in north Atlantic overturning circulation \r\n(Caesar et al. 2018; Thornalley et al. 2018). The strongest warming \r\nis observed in regions of the deep ocean AABW (Purkey et al. 2014). \r\nRegions of the ocean fed by AABW from the Weddell Sea have \r\nexhibited a possible slowdown in local AABW warming rates (Lyman \r\nand Johnson, 2014), while the Pacific, fed by AABW from the shelves \r\nalong the Ross and Adelie Coast, has continued to warm at an \r\naccelerating rate between 1990 and 2018 (Desbruyeres et al. 2016b)."


id: eb32fd6cdfd0ea1bb0c80332415a23d7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38735
content:
"To date, assessment of deep ocean (below 2000 m) heat content has \r\nmostly been from ship-based data collected along decadal repeats \r\nof oceanographic transects (Figure 5.4b) (Talley et al. 2016). While \r\nrelatively sparse in space and time compared to the upper ocean, \r\nthese transects were positioned to optimise sampling of most deep \r\nocean basins and provide the highest quality of salinity, temperature \r\nand pressure data. Argo floats capable of sampling to 6000 m have \r\njust started to populate select deep ocean basins; this Deep Argo data \r\nhas just started providing regional deep ocean warming estimates \r\n(Johnson et  al. 2019). Decadal monitoring by the full global Deep \r\nArgo array (Johnson et al. 2015), complemented by indirect estimates \r\nfrom space (Llovel et  al. 2014; Von Schuckmann et  al. 2014), will \r\nstrongly reduce the currently large uncertainties of deep ocean heat \r\ncontent change estimates in the future."


id: 6de3ecdff14455542f6af720eb49d27e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16594
content:
"The spatial and temporal sparseness of observations below 4000 m, \r\nalong with significant differences between various ESMs, limits our \r\nunderstanding of the exact mechanisms driving the abyssal ocean \r\nvariability. However, ESMs consistently predict an anthropogenic \r\nclimate-change induced long-term abyssal warming trend originating \r\nin the Southern Ocean due to a reduction in the formation rates of \r\ncold AABW (Heuze et al. 2015). Although the abyssal modes of natural \r\nvariability are not as pronounced as closer to the surface, deep ocean \r\nheat content can vary on relatively short time scales through the \r\ncommunication of topographic and planetary waves driven by changes \r\nin the rate of deep water formation at high latitudes (Kawase, 1987; "


id: 97230bdc34e6431ba57f3356211f8fc6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23782
content:
"The global ocean below 2000 m has warmed significantly between \r\nthe 1980s and 2010s (Figure 5.4), contributing to ocean heat uptake \r\nand through thermal expansion to SLR (Purkey and Johnson, 2010; \r\nDesbruyeres et al. 2016b). The observed deep warming rate varies \r\nregionally and by depth reflecting differences in the waters influencing \r\nparticular regions. The deep and abyssal north Atlantic, fed by North \r\nAtlantic Deep Water (NADW), has reversed from warming to cooling \r\nover the past decade, possibly associated with the North Atlantic "


id: ba449a3552a2fc600d5df9bf0425dbee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29989
content:
"Many dynamical consequences of increased stratification are \r\nunderstood with very high confidence (see, for instance, Gill (1982) \r\nand Vallis (2017)). For the same turbulent kinetic energy dissipation, \r\nlocally increased stratification reduces the turbulent vertical diffusivity \r\nof heat, salinity, oxygen and nutrients (see Section 5.2.2.2.4). Increased \r\nstratification in the tropics and subtropical gyres will likely lead to \r\na net reduction in the vertical diffusivities of nutrients and other gases \r\nwithin the main thermocline, reducing the flux of nutrients into the "


id: 98aa1706df6291c6158549f890b44692
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24072
content:
"The ocean's properties are changing most rapidly in the near surface \r\nwaters that are more immediately exposed to atmospheric forcing. \r\nAs a result of the surface-intensified warming, the upper few \r\nhundred meters of the ocean are becoming more stably stratified \r\n(Helm  et  al.  2011; Talley et  al. 2016). The combination of surface "


id: e2d1846674d7b178ccca158913281931
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37202
content:
"Both human structures and ecological systems in the coastal zone \r\nare directly impacted by tidal amplitudes, which contribute to high\u0002water levels and the tidal flushing rates of estuaries, embayments, \r\nmarshes and mangroves. The tides are the response of a forced\u0002damped-resonance system (Arbic et  al. 2009). The M2 tide is the \r\ndominant tidal constituent in most places, with a period of half \r\na lunar day, or 12 hours, 25 minutes; the M2 tides are created by the \r\ndifferential motion of the solid Earth and oceans in response to the \r\ngravitational attraction of the moon (Newton, 1687; Laplace, 1799). \r\nThe astronomical forcing evolves only slowly, however the tidal \r\ndamping and basin resonance at tidal frequencies can change in \r\nresponse to changes in sea level, stratification and coastal conditions "


id: b8d2d741f1b2f2b2e2509cfd4d1c0615
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29721
content:
"ESMs are able to capture the dynamics of the climate system, but \r\nall numerical models have approximations and biases. The most \r\ncommonly used type of ocean component in ESMs is known to exhibit \r\nnumerically induced vertical mixing that can be a significant fraction "


id: 47d8ab98a25830ed3064752d8f345a77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9852
content:
"Mesoscale eddies (geostrophic rotating vortices with spatial scales \r\nof 10-100 km that penetrate deeply into the water column, and \r\nare often described as the ocean's weather) play an important role \r\nin regulating the changes to the larger scale ocean circulation, \r\nespecially in the Antarctic Circumpolar current, as is discussed in \r\nCross Chapter Box 7. In addition, sub-mesoscale eddies (rotationally \r\ninfluenced motions with smaller horizontal scales of hundreds of \r\nmetres to about 10 km and intrinsic timescales of a few days that \r\nespecially arise in association with fronts in the ocean's surface \r\nproperties) are known to be particularly important in the dynamics \r\nof the near-surface ocean boundary layer (see the review by \r\nMahadevan (2016)). Sub-mesoscale instabilities are associated with "


id: 750d3cc4eb02ef653ad235310bbc8644
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17829
content:
"Ocean turbulent mixing is a key process regulating the ocean \r\ncirculation and climate. Turbulent mixing is important for the uptake \r\nand redistribution of heat, carbon, nutrients, oxygen and other tracers \r\n(properties that are carried along with the flow of water) in the ocean \r\n(Schmittner et al. 2009; MacKinnon et al. 2017). Both observations and \r\ntheory indicate that turbulent mixing in the ocean is not constant in \r\nspace or time. Global estimates of both the turbulent kinetic energy "


id: cd5e22e69ef1ae6033f93798c46b0c0d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33469
content:
"the ocean, including heat uptake, stratification changes, steric SLR, \r\ndeoxygenisation and nutrient fluxes (medium confidence)."


id: bf09d34ab7730208908eb91c2652705b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30881
content:
"Since AR5, new global-scale data synthesis products, novel methods \r\nfor their analyses, as well as progress in modeling have substantially \r\nincreased our quantitative understanding of the role of the ocean in \r\nabsorbing and storing CO2 from the atmosphere. The most important \r\nprogress concerns the data-based quantification of the temporal \r\nvariability of the ocean carbon sink. While AR5 assessed primarily \r\nthe climatological mean processes governing the ocean carbon cycle, \r\nthe most recent work now permits us to assess how these processes \r\nhave changed in recent decades in response to climate variability and \r\nchange. Here we focus specifically on the open ocean carbon cycle."


id: 6cd41731d1f3fae9ddad8964ded170f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16424
content:
"The analyses of the steadily growing number of surface ocean CO2\r\nobservations (now more than 20 million observations, SOCATv6 \r\n(www.socat.info/index.php/2018/06/19/v6-release) demonstrate that \r\nthe net ocean uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere has increased from \r\naround 1.2 +- 0.5 Pg C yr-1 in the early 1980s to 2.0 +- 0.5 Pg C yr-1\r\nin the years 2010-2015 (Rodenbeck et al. 2014; Landschutzer et al. \r\n2016). Once new estimates of the outgassing flux stemming from \r\nriver derived carbon of 0.8 Pg C yr-1 (Resplandy et  al. 2018) are \r\naccounted for, these new observations imply that the rate of global \r\nocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 increased from 2.0 +- 0.5 Pg C yr-1\r\nto 2.8  +-  0.5  Pg  C  yr-1 between the early 1980s and 2010-2015 \r\n(Rodenbeck et al. 2014; Landschutzer et al. 2016; Le Quere et al. 2018). \r\nThis increase is supported by the current generation of ocean carbon \r\ncycle models (Le  Quere et  al. 2018), and commensurate with the \r\nincrease in atmospheric CO2."


id: 6a36a07ddd60204d24bbd1c06d08a4e5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15965
content:
"Landschutzer et  al. 2016), as well as the strong decadal variations \r\nin the high latitudes, especially the Southern Ocean (Landschutzer \r\net al. 2015; Munro et al. 2015; Ritter et al. 2017), discussed further in \r\nChapter 3 (Section 3.2.1.2.4). Fluctuations in the Southern Ocean CO2\r\nflux are important as they impart a substantial imprint also on the \r\nglobal uptake fluxes. For instance, reduced Southern Ocean uptake in \r\nthe 1990-2000 period coincided with an exceptionally weak global \r\nnet uptake of only about 0.8 +- 0.5 Pg C yr-1."


id: 7c68a066dd805c08a2d4de6e63a9734c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19088
content:
"adjusted for the loss of natural carbon, a very likely total increase in \r\nstorage between 1994 and 2007 of 24-34 Pg C, or around 25% of \r\ntotal emissions, is found (Gruber, 2019)."


id: 17f68b9a735f2ad651b792dd8ff3a13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1416
content:
"Thus, there is very high confidence from surface ocean and ocean interior \r\ncarbon data that the strength of the ocean sink for anthropogenic \r\ncarbon has increased in the last two decades in response to the \r\ngrowth of atmospheric CO2. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that \r\nit is very likely that the ocean has taken up 20-30% of the global \r\nemissions of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, cement production, \r\nand land-use change since the mid 1980s. The consistency between \r\nindependent surface ocean observations and the ocean interior data\u0002based reconstructions supports the assessment of very high confidence \r\nand provides robust evidence that fraction of emissions taken up by the \r\nocean has not changed in a statistically significant manner in the last \r\nfew decades and remains consistent with AR5."


id: ca7734c399ed533160cbce5675e9b8d9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32959
content:
"Thus, there is growing evidence from multiple datasets that the \r\nocean carbon sink exhibits decadal variability at regional scales that \r\nsignificantly alter the globally integrated sink (medium confidence)."


id: 44d2f8971281e02733d36b3558d980ce
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9334
content:
"Detailed analyses of the spatial structure of the change in storage of \r\nanthropogenic CO2 confirm the variable nature of the ocean carbon \r\nsink suggested by the surface observations (Perez et  al. 2013), \r\nwhich are most likely a consequence of changes in ocean circulation \r\n(DeVries and Weber, 2017). The increase in anthropogenic CO2\r\nbetween 1994 and 2007 occurs throughout the upper 1000 m, but \r\nwith very different penetration depths, reflecting largely differences \r\nin the efficiency, with which the anthropogenic CO2 is transported \r\nfrom the surface to depth (Gruber et  al. 2019) (Figure 5.7). This "


id: e1c35862c1ce9c99c8929a7b8c13b88e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36996
content:
"Alongside a globally integrated perspective, these new surface ocean \r\nobservations also reveal a substantial degree of variability at interannual \r\nand decadal scales (Rodenbeck et al. 2015; Landschutzer et al. 2016; \r\nLe Quere et al. 2018). Most notable are the air-sea CO2 flux variations \r\nin the tropics linked to ENSO variations (Rodenbeck  et  al.  2015; "


id: 2570b4ee3af40b9c9f0f1fd7f4886fff
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3773
content:
"spatial distribution of how the amount of anthropogenic CO2 has \r\nchanged between 1994 and 2007 is similar to the distribution of \r\nanthropogenic CO2 reconstructed for 1994 (Sabine et  al. 2004), \r\nalthough the imprint of regional variations in ocean circulation and \r\ntransport are discernible (Gruber, 2019)."


id: c817cb19edd86dd2614f5e8ddd2e6c5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32517
content:
"Overall, it is virtually certain that the future surface open ocean will \r\nexperience pH drops of either 0.036-0.042 (RCP2.6) or 0.287-0.291 \r\n(RCP8.5) pH units by 2081-2100, relative to 2006-2105. These \r\npH changes are very likely to cause 16-20% of the surface ocean, \r\nspecifically the Arctic and Southern Oceans, as well as the northern \r\nPacific and northwestern Atlantic Oceans, to experience year-round \r\ncorrosive conditions for aragonite by 2081-2100. It is virtually \r\ncertain these impacts will be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario. \r\nThere is medium confidence, due to the potential for parallel changes \r\nin ocean circulation, that the Arctic and north Atlantic seafloors will \r\nexperience the largest pH changes over the next century."


id: 41f5656b51164fd22bad6fded06e73e1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8796
content:
"It is virtually certain that ocean pH is declining, and the very likely\r\nrange of this decline is 0.017-0.027 pH units per decade for the \r\n8  locations where individual time series observations longer than \r\n15 years exist. This trend is lowering the chemical stability of \r\nmineral forms of calcium carbonate and can be attributed to rising \r\natmospheric CO2 levels."


id: d14937e7053adee57f9a39809894d5fd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34171
content:
"Overall, we assess that alongside the strong mean state changes, it \r\nis very likely that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in free acidity \r\nwill increase by 71-91%, while it is very likely that the seasonal \r\ncycles of pH and aragonite saturation will decrease by 12-20% and \r\n4-14%, respectively."


id: 800127c80ddecc72f0c5ca6929c35e3c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19654
content:
"The  contrasting changes in the seasonal amplitudes of ocean \r\ncarbonate chemistry variables derive from different sensitivities to \r\natmospheric CO2 and climate change and to diverging trends in the \r\nseasonal cycles of DIC, alkalinity and temperature. Model skill at \r\nsimulating the seasonal cycles of carbonate chemistry is moderate, \r\nwith persistent biases in the Southern Ocean, particularly for pCO2, \r\n[H+] and pH (Kwiatkowski and Orr, 2018; Mongwe et al. 2018)."


id: 42a6765065e4bb368c9a67e56bb2546c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8919
content:
"fallen by over 150  Tmol per decade from the 1960s to present \r\n(Schmidtko et  al. 2017). Observations along ocean cruises as part \r\nof the CLIVAR programme have also documented broad thermocline \r\noxygen declines in the northern hemisphere oceans, accompanied \r\nby well understood oxygen increases in subtropical and southern \r\nhemispheres (Talley et al. 2016)."


id: c56f19fd18b0cefc10372816e6579a04
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32045
content:
"Overall there is medium confidence that the oxygen content of \r\nthe upper 1000 m has declined with a very likely loss of 0.5-3.3% \r\nbetween 1970-2010. OMZ are expanding in volume, by a very likely \r\nrange of 3.0-8.3%. There is medium confidence that the largest \r\nregional changes have occurred in the Southern Ocean, equatorial \r\nregions, North Pacific and South Atlantic due to medium agreement\r\namong studies."


id: 8cc60628c77b29f3ebe29c1c63498db5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21954
content:
"Ocean oxygen changes are also affected by climate variability on \r\ninterannual and decadal timescales, especially for the tropical ocean \r\nOMZs (Deutsch et al. 2011). ENSO variability in particular affects the \r\nthermocline structure, which then alongside changes in circulation \r\nmodulates oxygen solubility and respiratory demand in this region \r\n(Ito and Deutsch, 2013; Eddebbar et al. 2017). These drivers may then \r\nbe combined with modifications to overturning and ventilation of \r\nOMZs by lateral jets and equatorial current intensity (Duteil et  al. \r\n2014). Centennial scale studies based on isotope proxies for low \r\noxygen regions have demonstrated fluctuations in OMZ extent linked \r\nto decadal changes in tropical trade winds that affects interior ocean \r\nrespiratory oxygen demand, which implies that it will be difficult "


id: dcf95570ea430cee39121e49fd99f93f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36142
content:
"Syntheses of datasets from local time series tend to document \r\nstronger trends, with oxygen declines of over 20% at sites in the \r\nnortheastern Pacific between 1956-2006 (Whitney et  al. 2007), \r\nthe Northwestern Pacific between 1954-2014 (Sasano et al. 2015) \r\nand the California Current between 1984-2011 (Bograd et  al. \r\n2015). Despite holding the highest inventory of oxygen in the \r\nocean, oxygen levels in Southern Ocean contributed 25% to the \r\nglobal decline between 1970-1992 (Helm et  al. 2011) and have "


id: 3bde8d9edd27e3db6f6f13283a53c947
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7727
content:
"Table 5.2 | Observed oxygen changes for the period 1970-2010 for 6 different layers within the ocean. The changes are shown as percentage change of global averages. \r\nThe layers are depths 0-100, 100-600, 0-1000, and 600-bottom are in metres. The oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is defined as the ocean volume change that is less than \r\n80 mmol L-1. The estimates and confidence intervals are based published papers (Schmidtko et al. 2018, Ito et al. 2017 and Helm et al. 2011). The assessed change is the \r\naverage of the available estimates and the 90% Confidence Interval (CI) combines the confidence as their standard deviation with two degrees of freedom."


id: 82ad92c19af4908b6ef9f2e887ccef85
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20123
content:
"to attribute recent changes in the Pacific OMZ to anthropogenic \r\nforcing alone (Deutsch et al. 2015). Parallel work based on oxygen \r\nobservations (Llanillo et al. 2013), as well as modelling (Duteil et al. \r\n2018) supports the importance of decadal scale variability in the \r\neastern tropical Pacific OMZ. There is some evidence for the potential \r\nof a modulating impact on tropical Pacific oxygen at interannual \r\ntimescales from atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and iron \r\n(Ito et al. 2016; Yang and Gruber, 2016)."


id: f1cf1f37147702bff2830d94f829e91b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39928
content:
"resolution in the tropics and the length of the model spin up (Bopp \r\net al. 2017). The 80 mmol L-1 threshold that may be used to define \r\nthe volume of the oxygen minimum is projected to grow by a very \r\nlikely range of 7.0 +- 5.6% by 2100 during the RCP8.5 scenario or \r\nshow virtually no change during the RCP2.6 scenario, relative to "


id: 1b748f77c6aba37c919a04e398b6ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2008
content:
"At the global scale, there is high confidence that the impact of \r\na warmer ocean on oxygen levels is reinforced by other processes \r\nassociated with ocean physics and biogeochemistry, which cause \r\nthe majority of the observed oxygen decline. For the tropical Pacific \r\nOMZ, there is medium confidence arising from medium agreement\r\nfrom medium evidence that low frequency decadal changes in ocean \r\nphysics have controlled past fluctuations in OMZ extent. "


id: ab9634b483ef3c3508875fd7f8f813b5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27423
content:
"Changes to ocean nutrient cycling are driven by modifications to ocean \r\nmixing and transport (Section 5.2.2.2.2), internal biogeochemical \r\ncycling and fluctuations in external supply, particularly from rivers \r\nand the atmosphere. This assessment will focus on the main nutrients \r\nimportant for driving microbial growth (Section 5.2.2.6), namely \r\nnitrogen, phosphorus and iron. "


id: 283e5f8f849420052feb82fc3f014cf0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4277
content:
"Diverse studies (including shipboard experiments and use of protein \r\nbiomarkers) have highlighted nitrogen and phosphorus limitation in \r\nthe stratified tropical ocean regions accompanied by widespread iron \r\nlimitation at high latitudes and in upwelling regions that typically \r\nhave elevated levels of productivity (Figure 5.11) (Moore et  al. \r\n2013; Saito et al. 2014; Browning et al. 2017; Tagliabue et al. 2017). \r\nMoreover, more extensive experimental work has demonstrated \r\noverlapping nitrogen-iron co-limitation at the boundaries between \r\ngyre and upwelling regimes (Browning et  al. 2017). There is high \r\nconfidence arising from robust evidence and high agreement across \r\ndifferent types of studies that the main limiting nutrient is either iron \r\n(in most major upwelling regions and the Southern, north Atlantic \r\nand sub-Arctic Pacific Oceans) or nitrogen and phosphorus (in the \r\nlow productivity tropical ocean gyres)."


id: f544776b155447badafe9b0b61d57b01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40518
content:
"There is limited evidence on contemporary trends in nutrient levels, \r\neither from time series sites or broader meta-analyses. Increasing \r\ninputs of anthropogenic nitrogen from the atmosphere are \r\nperturbing ocean nutrient levels (Jickells et al. 2017). In the North \r\nPacific in particular, additional atmospheric nitrogen input has raised \r\nthe nitrogen to phosphorus ratio between 1988-2011 and induced \r\na progressive shift towards phosphorus limitation in this region \r\n(Kim et al. 2011; Kim et al. 2014; Ren et al. 2017). This tendency is \r\nsupported by modelling experiments that find enhanced atmospheric \r\nnitrogen input only has a small influence on productivity due to \r\nexpanded phosphorus limitation (Yang and Gruber, 2016) and other \r\nnitrogen cycle feedbacks (Somes et al. 2016; Landolfi et al. 2017)."


id: eb945de6ccee36cac22ce0d5a7df71ed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38814
content:
"a 1850-1900 reference period (Figure 5.10). At the seafloor, between \r\n200-3000 m depth strata, the north Pacific, north Atlantic, Arctic and \r\nSouthern Oceans may see oxygen declines by 0.3-3.7% by 2100 \r\n(relative to 2005), with abyssal ocean changes being lower and more \r\nlocalised around regions in the north Atlantic and Southern Ocean \r\n(Sweetman et al. 2017), but will be modulated by any future changes \r\nin overturning strength. There is high confidence that the largest \r\nchanges in deep sea systems will occur after 2100 (Battaglia and \r\nJoos, 2018). "


id: 9bff4cb1db7fa20bc55c8b360737df83
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24698
content:
"Simulations extended to 2300 suggest that by 2150 the trend of \r\ndeclining tropical ocean oxygen (both in terms of concentrations \r\nand volume of low oxygen waters) may reverse itself, mainly due \r\nto the effect of strong declines in primary production and organic \r\nmatter fluxes to the ocean interior (Fu et al. 2018) or due to enhanced \r\nAntarctic ventilation (Yamamoto et al. 2015), but with low confidence \r\ndue to limited evidence. At the global scale, 10,000 year intermediate \r\ncomplexity model simulations find that overall ocean oxygen loss \r\nshows near linear relationships to equilibrium temperature, itself \r\nlinearly related to cumulative emissions, and any climate mitigation \r\nscenario will reduce peak oxygen loss by 4.4% per degree Celsius of \r\navoided warming (Battaglia and Joos, 2018). "


id: e77df6b969a533c63f1867213ceba132
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38031
content:
"In summary, the total oxygen content of the ocean is very likely to \r\ndecline by 3.2-3.7% by 2100, relative to 2000, for RCP8.5 or by \r\nbetween 1.6-2.0% for RCP2.6 with medium confidence. There is \r\nmedium confidence that sea floor changes will be more localised \r\nin the north Atlantic and Southern Oceans by 2100, but high \r\nconfidence that the largest deep sea floor changes in oxygen will \r\noccur after 2100."


id: 2c786781c7321347d2f3f92934504c49
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5089
content:
"growth rate and standing stock. Phytoplankton growth is controlled \r\nby the combination of temperature, light and nutrients, while \r\nthe phytoplankton standing stock is modified by both gains from \r\ngrowth and losses due to grazing by zooplankton (Figure 5.12). \r\nExport production is here defined as the sinking flux of particulate \r\norganic carbon (produced by NPP) across a specified depth horizon. \r\nOtherwise known as the biological pump, export production is also \r\na key component of the global carbon cycle (see Section 5.2.2.3) and \r\nan essential food supply to benthic organisms (see Section 5.2.3.2). \r\nExport production is regulated by the level of primary production \r\nand the transfer efficiency with depth, itself controlled by the type \r\nof sinking organic carbon, which is affected by the upper ocean food \r\nweb structure (Boyd et al. 2019). "


id: e4eb0f0d81d0ee7f594497e182dbc8f6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37563
content:
"Iron concentrations are projected to increase in the future from ESM \r\nsimulations, due to enhanced lateral transport into high-latitude \r\noceans and reduced biological consumption in regions of declining \r\nnitrate (Misumi et  al. 2013). Other modelling efforts also suggest \r\ngreater levels of the more biologically available Fe(II) species in \r\na warmer and more acidic ocean (Tagliabue and Volker, 2011). These \r\nmodelling studies tend to indicate greater ocean iron availability in \r\nthe future overall, but the very limited skill of contemporary global \r\nocean iron models in reproducing observations available from the \r\nnew basin scale datasets from the international GEOTRACES program \r\nand neglect for parallel dust supply changes lower the confidence in \r\nthe models' projected changes (Tagliabue et al. 2016). "


id: 8b195d2c501fb0f6ede2e4cb14d4b47d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21636
content:
"Overall, nitrate concentrations in the upper 100 m are very likely to \r\ndecline by 9-14% by 2081-2100, relative to 2006-2015 for RCP8.5 \r\nor 1.5-6% for RCP2.6, in response to increased stratification, with \r\nmedium confidence in these projections due to the limited evidence \r\nof past changes that can be robustly understood and reproduced \r\nby models. Surface ocean iron levels is projected to increase in the \r\n21st century with low confidence due to systemic uncertainties in \r\nthese models. "


id: f73a18adb2a54bab34dfc696e8a6c403
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40873
content:
"Satellite datasets that use mathematical algorithms to convert \r\nocean colour, often alongside other remotely sensed information, \r\ninto chlorophyll or other indexes of phytoplankton biomass and NPP \r\nprovide the potential to deliver a global meta-analysis of changes \r\nin NPP. Since AR5, a variety of studies have reported relatively \r\ninsignificant changes in overall open ocean chlorophyll levels of \r\n<+-1% yr-1 for individual time periods (Boyce et al. 2014; Gregg and \r\nRousseaux, 2014; Boyce and Worm, 2015; Hammond et  al. 2017). \r\nRegionally, trends of +-4% between 2002-2015 for different regions \r\nare found when different satellite products are merged, with increases \r\nat high latitudes and moderate decreases at low latitudes (Melin \r\net al. 2017). While some studies report good comparability of merged \r\nproducts (Melin et al. 2017), others highlight significant mismatches "


id: 4c3ce17a5345cc7cc6f4687322d0c884
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10674
content:
"Ocean primary productivity is a key process in the ocean carbon \r\ncycle (see Section 5.2.2.3), as well as for supporting pelagic ocean \r\necosystems (see Section 5.2.3). NPP is the product of phytoplankton "


id: 3f90f33ee5d42a9173ce7b57164f925
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8372
content:
"and interactions between organisms (Lima-Mendez et  al. 2015), \r\nbut their role in shaping the response of NPP to climate change \r\nremains a  major unknown. Lastly, modelling work suggests that \r\nthe increasing deposition of anthropogenic aerosols (supplying N \r\nand Fe) stimulates biological activity (Wang et al. 2015b) and may \r\ncompensate for warming driven reductions in primary productivity \r\n(Wang et al. 2015b), but these effects do not form part of the CMIP5 \r\nprojections assessed here."


id: ba7b2d902ce8d9acea35911ba0a180a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30025
content:
"regarding absolute values and decadal trends in NPP between NPP \r\nalgorithms (Gomez-Letona et al. 2017). Satellite derived NPP shows \r\nsignificant mismatches when compared to in situ data and reducing \r\nuncertainties in derived NPP is a high priority for the community \r\n(Lee et al. 2015), although there is a reasonable correlation in higher \r\nbiomass coastal regions (Kahru et  al. 2009). Importantly, satellite \r\nrecords are not yet long enough to unambiguously isolate long term \r\nclimate related trends from natural variability (Beaulieu et al. 2013). \r\nOverall, there is low confidence in satellite-based trends in global \r\nocean NPP due to the time series length and lack of corroborating in \r\nsitu measurements or other validation time series. This is especially \r\ntrue at regional scales where distinct sets of poorly understood \r\nprocesses dominate. "


id: 295eeddf52c534850a7d16e44b7ce7f5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4496
content:
"Overall, these assessments balance the range of projections across \r\nmodels alongside the strength of different kinds of observational \r\nconstraints available, as well as our theoretical or experimental \r\nunderstanding of the impact of a warmer, more stratified ocean on \r\nNPP and export production. As for AR5, net primary productivity "


id: c5dc5328550d137de364bb62211b7361
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32116
content:
"is very likely to decline by 4-11% by 2081-2100, relative to \r\n1850-1900, across CMIP5 models for RCP8.5, but there is low \r\nconfidence for this estimate due to the medium agreement\r\namong models and the limited evidence from observations. It is \r\nvery likely that tropical NPP will decline by 7-16% by 2100 for "


id: dbb9736d05d84717ea5b05b4edd8af91
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35947
content:
"RCP8.5 with medium confidence, as there are improved constraints \r\nfrom historical variability in this region. Globally, the increased \r\nstratification in the future is very likely to reduce export production \r\nby 9-16% in response to reduced nutrient supply, especially in \r\ntropical regions (medium confidence)."


id: e09f497c5e8cb0554d07f10b67c85608
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36776
content:
"Earlier ToE and their subsequent biological impacts \r\non organisms and ecosystems increase the urgency of policy \r\nresponses through both climate mitigation and adaptation \r\n(Sections 5.5). However, the rapid emergence of hazards at \r\nthe local scale in the near-term (already past or in this decade) \r\nsuch as warming and ocean acidification and the resulting \r\nimpacts on some of the more sensitivity or less adaptive \r\nbiodiversity and ecosystem services may post challenges \r\nfor international and regional policies as their often require \r\nmultiple decades to designate and implement (Box 5.6). \r\nIn contrast, scope for adaptation for national and local \r\nocean governance can be more responsive to rapid changes \r\n(Sections 5.5.2, 5.5.3). This highlights the opportunities for \r\nmulti-level adaptation that allows for reducing climate risks \r\nthat are expected to emergence of stressors and impacts at \r\ndifferent time frame (Mackenzie et al. 2014)."


id: bbfa8af720a28e0b9b0de66f52a1f00d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30308
content:
"This section synthesises new evidence since AR5 to assess observed \r\nchanges in relation to the effects of and the interactions between \r\nmultiple climate and non-climate hazards, and to project future \r\nrisks of impacts from these hazards on the epipelagic organisms, \r\ncommunities and food web interactions, and their scope and \r\nlimitation to adapt. "


id: 47f1d48e78e3def7bfac5f4cf8f3dfd9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9873
content:
"supports that ocean acidification and hypoxia can act additively or \r\nsynergistically between each other and with temperature across \r\ndifferent groups of biota (Figure 5.13). Limitation of nutrient and \r\nfood availability and predation pressures can further increase \r\nthe sensitivity of organismal groups to climate change in specific \r\necosystems (Riebesell et  al. 2017). Climate change also affects \r\norganisms indirectly through the impacts on competitiveness \r\nbetween organisms that favour those that are more adaptive to \r\nthe changing environmental conditions (Alguero-Muniz et al. 2017) \r\nand changes in trophic interactions (Seebacher et al. 2014). Overall, \r\ndirect in situ observations and laboratory experiments show that \r\nthere are significant responses to the multiple stressors of warming, \r\nocean acidification and low oxygen on phytoplankton, zooplankton \r\nand fishes and that these responses can be additive or synergistic \r\n(high confidence, Figure 5.13). "


id: c040adaee5ec4f62a74627b0994b970c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31125
content:
"et al. 2017; Youngflesh et al. 2017) (high confidence). Overall, recent \r\nevidence further support that impacts of climate change on some \r\nmarine reptiles, mammals and birds have been observed in recent \r\ndecades (high confidence) and that the direction of impacts vary \r\nbetween species, population and geographic locations (Trivelpiece \r\net al. 2011; Hazen et al. 2013; Clucas et al. 2014; Constable et al. \r\n2014; George et al. 2015) (high confidence). "


id: 5b5a9042acedffa7c2ff3038584e5901
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13318
content:
"regional variability, since iron is thought to limit N2 fixation in \r\nthe eastern Pacific and phosphorus in the Atlantic Ocean (Gruber, \r\n2019; Wang et  al. 2019). However, recent experimental work \r\nwith the diazotrophic colonial Trichodesmium and the unicellular \r\nCrocosphaera have shown a broad range of responses from rising \r\nCO2, with either increases or decreases in N2 fixation rates, and with \r\nmixed evidence on co-limiting processes (Eichner et al. 2014; Garcia \r\net al. 2014; Gradoville et al. 2014; Walworth et al. 2016; Hong et al. \r\n2017; Luo et al. 2019) (low confidence)."


id: 281ecddb320d27d373769c35ef3a16ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4254
content:
"Overall, the response of phytoplankton to the interactive effects of \r\nmultiple drivers is complex, and presently ESMs do not resolve the \r\nfull complexity of their physiological responses (Breitberg et al. 2015; \r\nHutchins and Boyd, 2016; O'Brien et  al. 2016), precluding a clear \r\nassessment of the effects of these regional distinctive multi-stressor \r\npatterns (high confidence)."


id: a1cfa244d758b5c53ba98dc1f772562f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25688
content:
"Future responses of zooplankton species and communities to climate \r\nchange are however affected by interactions between multiple \r\nclimatic drivers. Experiments in laboratory show that acidification \r\ncould partly counteract some observed effects of increased \r\ntemperature on zooplankton, although the level and direction of the \r\nbiological responses vary largely between species (Mayor et al. 2015; "


id: 3dc03ed5ec8de622882a395ad4994d73
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8028
content:
"richness in the Arctic. The projected intensity of species turnover \r\nis lower under lower emission scenarios (Jones and Cheung, 2015; \r\nMolinos et  al. 2016) (see also Section  5.4.1) (high confidence). \r\nProjections from multiple fish species distribution models show \r\nhotspots of decrease in species richness in the Indo-Pacific region, \r\nand semi-enclosed seas such as the Red Sea and Persian Gulf \r\n(Cheung et al. 2013; Burrows et al. 2014; Garcia Molinos et al. 2015; \r\nJones and Cheung, 2015; Wabnitz et al. 2018) (medium evidence, \r\nhigh agreement). In addition, geographic barriers such as land \r\nboundaries in the poleward species range edge in semi-enclosed \r\nseas or lower oxygen water in deeper waters are projected to limit \r\nrange shifts, resulting in larger relative decrease in species richness \r\n(medium confidence) (Cheung et  al. 2013; Burrows et  al. 2014; \r\nGarcia  Molinos et  al. 2015; Jones and Cheung, 2015; Rutterford \r\net al. 2015)."


id: 9e49e7137b355d4a3c9edbd50af46fa6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25079
content:
"An ensemble of global-scale marine ecosystem and fisheries \r\nmodels that are part of the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems \r\nImpact Models Intercomparison Project (FISHMIP) undertook \r\ncoordinated simulation experiments and projected future changes \r\nin marine animals (mainly  invertebrate and fish)  globally under \r\nclimate change (Lotze et al. 2018). These models represent marine \r\nbiota and ecosystems differently, ranging from population-based \r\nto functional traits- and size-based structure and their responses \r\nare driven primarily by temperature and NPP, although oxygen, \r\nsalinity and ocean advection are considered in a subset of models"


id: 8f68a9acbf9c48af672c8b0c16a0cac2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22445
content:
"Table 5.3 | Projected changes in total animal biomass by the mid- and end- of the 21st century under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5. Total \r\nanimal biomass is based on 10 sets of projections for each RCP under the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Impact Model Intercomparison Project (FISMIP) (Lotze et al. \r\n2018). The very likely ranges of the projections (95% confidence intervals) are provided. Reference period is 1986-2005."


id: 90513d8d5b16a4e595be34a5044f5f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22593
content:
"Table 5.4 | Projected future changes to the ocean biological pump (adapted from Boyd et al. (2015a)). Environmental controls on individual factors that influence \r\ndownward POC flux are based on published reports from experiments (denoted by E), modelling simulations (M) and observations (O). In some cases, due to the paucity, \r\nand regional specificity, of published reports it has been indicated the sign of the projected change on export (in italics), as opposed to the magnitude. NPP: Net Primary \r\nProduction; POC: Particulate Organic Carbon; DOC: Dissolved Organic Carbon; TEP: Transparent Exopolymer Particles; OA: Ocean Acidification. Climate change denotes \r\nmultiple controls such as nutrients, temperature and irradiance, as parameterised in coupled ocean atmosphere models. *denotes observation for low latitudes only.\r\n** represents major uncertainty over environmental modulation of this component of the biological pump. ***denotes joint influence of temperature and acidification."


id: fa3af3b980906d87b4f4146da5114be8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41397
content:
"limited evidence that the transfer efficiency of organic carbon to \r\nthe sea floor is partly controlled by temperature and oxygen in the \r\nmesopelagic zone, affecting microbial metabolism and zooplankton \r\ncommunity structure, with highest efficiencies for high-latitude and \r\nOMZ) (see Section 5.2.2.4 for more detail on OMZs), while below \r\n1000 m organic carbon transfer is controlled by particle sinking \r\nspeed (Boyd et  al. 2015a; Marsay et  al. 2015; DeVries and Weber, \r\n2017). However, there are contrasting results and low confidence\r\non whether transfer efficiencies are highest at low or high latitudes \r\n(Boyd et al. 2015a; Marsay et al. 2015; Guidi et al. 2016; DeVries and \r\nWeber, 2017; Sweetman et al. 2017). There is also low confidence on "


id: 95015d84e9400766e2fa14b286ecd3e0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23421
content:
"The pelagic realm of the deep ocean represents a key site for \r\nremineralisation of organic matter and long-term biological carbon \r\nstorage and burial in the biosphere (Aristegui et  al. 2009), but \r\nthe observed effects of climate change on deep sea organisms, \r\ncommunities and biological processes are largely unknown (high \r\nconfidence). Observational and model-based methods provide "


id: 3bba3be1ba567be632d1d2c306267131
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7692
content:
"the effects of increasing temperatures on POC remineralisation to \r\nCO2 versus POC solubilisation to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by \r\nmicrobial communities and its storage as refractory DOC (i.e., with \r\nlife times of >16,000 years) (Legendre et al. 2015)."


id: 81de456a972c73f497f4dc9cc35b7fef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19970
content:
"The deep seafloor is assessed here as the vast area of the ocean bottom \r\n>200 m deep, beyond most continental shelves (Levin and Sibuet, 2012; \r\nBoyd et al. 2019) (Figure 5.15). Below 200 m changes in light, food \r\nsupply and the physical environment lead to altered benthic (seafloor) \r\nanimal taxonomic composition, morphologies, lifestyles and body sizes \r\ncollectively understood to represent the deep sea (Tyler, 2003)."


id: cf43dce04d7335a6ce9458f707e54796
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33815
content:
"(limited evidence). Overall, the risk of impacts of climate change on \r\nabyssal ecosystems through reduction in food supplies from declining \r\nPOC flux in the present day is low with low confidence."


id: 137067df5053afcb3f32dccdb7a9d15f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 627
content:
"are sites where intensified mixing and advection of water masses \r\noccurs (De Leo et al. 2010; Levin and Sibuet, 2012; Fernandez-Arcaya \r\net al. 2017). Slopes, canyons and seamounts exhibit strong vertical \r\ntemperature, oxygen and pH gradients generating sharp ecological \r\nzonation (Levin and Sibuet, 2012), thus changes in exposures are \r\nexpected to alter the distributions of their communities (Figure 5.15, \r\n5.16) (medium confidence)."


id: 775925acb1c0b6255090f04b5cce5653
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18205
content:
"Bathyal species adapted to OMZs where CO2 levels are characteristically \r\nhigh, appear less vulnerable to the negative impacts of ocean \r\nacidification (Taylor et  al. 2014). Benthic foraminifera, which are \r\noften the numerically dominant deep sea taxon, show no significant \r\neffect of short-term exposure to ocean acidification on survival of \r\nmultiple species (Dissard et al. 2010; Haynert et al. 2011; Keul et al. \r\n2013; McIntyre-Wressnig et  al. 2014; Wit et  al. 2016) and in fact \r\nhypoxia in combination with elevated pCO2 favors survival of some \r\nforaminifera (Wit et al. 2016). However, lower pH exacerbates shallow \r\nforaminiferal sensitivity to warming (Webster et  al. 2016). Limited \r\nevidence suggests that combined declines in pH and oxygen may lead \r\nto increase in some agglutinating taxa and a decrease in carbonate\u0002producing foraminifera, including those using carbonate cement (van \r\nDijk et  al. 2017). Exposure to acidification (0.4 unit  pH  decrease) "


id: 56bb7e8ddd588c68155dd0697194f3f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12510
content:
"Bathyal ecosystems consist of numerous geomorphic features with \r\nsteep topography (Figure 5.15). These include continental slopes \r\ncovering 5.2% of the seafloor, over 9400 steep-sided canyons, and \r\n>9000 conical seamounts (submarine volcanos which are mainly \r\ninactive), as well as guyots and ridges which together cover ~6% \r\nof the seafloor (Harris et al. 2014). Seamounts and canyons support \r\nhigh animal densities and biomass including cold water coral, sponge \r\nand bryozoan reefs, exhibit high secondary production supported by \r\nlocally enhanced primary production and intensified water flow, \r\nfunction as diversity hotspots and serve as stepping stones for larval \r\ndispersal (Rowden et al. 2010). Canyons transport particulate organic \r\nmatter, migrating plankton and coarse material from the shelf, and "


id: 104ad857942f2e2939d24ca8ab2a4a01
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 55
content:
"experience comparable benthic biomass declines (Jones et al. 2014). \r\nBy 2100 under RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding -0.2 pH units are \r\nprojected in ~23% of north Atlantic deep sea canyons and 8% of \r\nseamounts (Gehlen et al. 2014), with potential negative consequences \r\nfor their cold water coral habitats (See Box 5.2)."


id: 41bb985aa10d6f9193bdc85af5517755
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8761
content:
"reduces fecundity and embryo development rate in a  bathyal \r\npolychaete. Where both oxygen and CO2 stress occur together on \r\nbathyal slopes, oxygen can be the primary driver of change (Taylor \r\net al. 2014; Sato et al. 2018). Nematodes are sensitive to changes in \r\ntemperature (Danovaro et al. 2001; Danovaro et al. 2004; Yodnarasri \r\net al. 2008) and elevated CO2 (Barry et al. 2004; Fleeger et al. 2006; \r\nFleeger et al. 2010). There is low agreement about the direction of \r\nmeiofaunal responses among studies, reflecting opposing responses \r\nin different regions. However, there is high agreement that meiofauna \r\nare sensitive to change in environment and food supply (medium \r\nconfidence). Additional research is needed across all taxa on how \r\nhypoxia and pH interact (Gobler and Baumann, 2016)."


id: bff7d00776f82c3cc59edaaa0c901a9a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31063
content:
"Seamounts have been proposed to serve as refugia for cold water \r\ncorals facing shoaling aragonite saturation horizons (Tittensor et al. \r\n2011), but could become too warm for deep-water corals in some \r\nregions (e.g.,  projections off Australia) (Thresher et  al. 2015) (one \r\nstudy, low confidence). Seamounts are major spawning grounds for \r\nfishes; reproduction on seamounts may be disrupted by warming \r\n(Henry et al. 2016) (one study, low confidence). In the north Atlantic, \r\nmodels suggest seamounts are an important source of cold water \r\ncoral larvae that maintain resilience under shifting NAO conditions \r\n(Fox et al. 2016), thus loss of suitable seamount habitat may have \r\nfar-reaching consequences (Gehlen et  al. 2014) (low confidence)\r\n(also see Box 5.2)."


id: a01e566913e4b0dc5da6d9fd168b77d3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25385
content:
"Declines in faunal biomass (6.1 +- 1.6% 95% C.I) are predicted for \r\n96.6 +- 1.2% of seamounts under RCP8.5 by 2091-2100 relative to \r\n2006-2015, driven by a projected 13.8 +- 3.3% drop in POC flux (Jones \r\net al. 2014). The majority (85%) of mapped canyons are projected to "


id: 18dd99b47421ff5899ee827f55a7d8c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1591
content:
"Cold water corals and sponges form large reefs at the deep seafloor mostly between 200-1500 m, creating complex 3D habitat \r\nthat  supports high biodiversity; they are found at the highest densities on hard substrates of continental slopes, canyons, and\r\nseamounts (Buhl-Mortensen et al. 2010). The meta-analysis reported in AR5 Chapter 6 Table 6-3 (Portner et al. 2014), identifies \r\n10 studies involving 6 species of cold water corals that suggest low vulnerability to CO2 changes at RCP6.0 and medium vulnerability \r\nat RCP8.5, with negative effects starting at pCO2 of 445 matm. "


id: feb28ff1aa57b2a9975a92500b86dc32
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 42196
content:
"Sponges also form critical habitat in the deep ocean but are much less well studied than cold-water corals with respect to climate \r\nchange. The geologic record, modern distributions and evolutionary and metabolic pathways suggest that sponges are more tolerant \r\nto warm temperatures, high CO2 and low oxygen than are cold-water corals (Schulz et al. 2013). One habitat forming, deep sea \r\nsponge along with its microbiome (microbial inhabitants) has been shown in laboratory experiments to tolerate a 5oC increase in\r\ntemperature, albeit with evidence of stress (Strand et al. 2017), while ocean acidification (pH 7.5) reduces the feeding of two deep sea \r\ndemosponge taxa (Robertson et al. 2017). "


id: 7ed32f4cd7b98d23df9cdf1b2915d864
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19469
content:
"the impacts on the growth, reproduction and mortality of fishes, and \r\nconsequently increase the risk of population decline (high confidence) \r\n(Section 5.2.3.1). There may be some capacity for adjustment and \r\nevolutionary adaptation that lowers their sensitivity to warming and \r\ndecrease in oxygen (low confidence). However, historical responses \r\nin abundance and ranges of marine fishes to ocean warming and \r\ndecrease in oxygen in the past suggest that adaptation is not always \r\nsufficient to mitigate the observed impacts (medium confidence) \r\n(Section 5.2.3) (SM5.2). "


id: ae9672658874e1b703706c9bc04fae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27948
content:
"This section summarises our updated understanding of ecological and \r\nfunctional changes that coastal ecosystems are experiencing due to \r\nmultiple climate and non-climatic human drivers, and their synergies. \r\nAdditional experimental and long-term observational evidence since \r\nAR5 WGII (Wong et  al. 2014a) and SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. \r\n2018) improves the attribution of impacts on all the types of coastal \r\necosystems assessed here to climate trends (Sections 5.3.1 to 5.3.6). \r\nMoreover, the emergent impacts detected in the present strengthen \r\nthe projection of risk of each ecosystem under future emission \r\nscenarios by 2100, depending on their exposure to different climate \r\nhazards (Section 5.3.7)."


id: 6b5ff82c73db893ee4362dca5b0578f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16192
content:
"Estuarine ecosystems are defined by the river-sea interface that \r\nprovides high habitat heterogeneity and supports high biodiversity \r\nacross freshwater and subtidal zones (Basset et al. 2013). AR5 WGII \r\n(Wong et al. 2014a) and SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018) concluded \r\nthat estuarine ecosystems have been impacted by SLR and human \r\ninfluences that drive salinisation, resulting in increased flooding, land \r\ndegradation and erosion of coastal areas around estuaries."


id: 954a11ca7d804530db7ffacd7fe483f7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23465
content:
"Intensive human activities around estuaries and river deltas \r\nworldwide has substantially increased nutrient and organic matter \r\ninputs into such systems since the 1970s (Maavara et  al. 2017). \r\nIncreased organic matter accumulation has been shown to interact \r\nwith warming, resulting in intensification of bacterial degradation \r\nand eutrophication (Maavara et al. 2017; Chen et al. 2018; Fennel and \r\nTesta, 2019), contributing to an increase in the frequency and extent \r\nof hypoxic zones (Breitberg et al. 2015; Gobler and Baumann, 2016). "


id: 70a82889e36f6f8d3cdb7732a36b8a4a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17079
content:
"The interaction between warming, increased nutrient loading, and \r\nhypoxia has shown to be related to the increased occurrences of HABs \r\n(Anderson et al. 2015; Paerl et al. 2018) (Box 5.4) (high confidence), \r\npathogenic bacteria such as Vibrio species (Baker-Austin et al. 2017; \r\nKopprio et al. 2017) (Section 5.4.2) (low confidence), and mortalities \r\nof invertebrates and fish communities (Jeppesen et al. 2018; Warwick \r\net al. 2018) (medium confidence)."


id: d3619318e9afea7ec41e7e2f79731e2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34534
content:
"summertime temperatures reach critical values (e.g.,  Black  Sea) \r\n(Altieri and Gedan, 2015) (medium confidence). The coastal \r\nacidification related to this expansion of hypoxic zones (Zhang and \r\nGao, 2016; Cai et  al. 2017; Laurent et  al. 2017) imposes risk for \r\nsensitive organisms (Beck et al. 2011; Duarte et al. 2013; Feely et al. \r\n2016; Carstensen et al. 2018)."


id: a292339bad1627303c9d33013f4861e2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25815
content:
"The interaction of SLR and changes in precipitation will have a more \r\nsevere impact on shallow estuaries (<10 m) than on deep basin estuaries \r\n(>10 m) (Hallett et al. 2018; Elliott et al. 2019) (medium confidence). \r\nFor a projected SLR of 1 m, climate-related risks for shallow estuaries \r\necosystems are estimated to increase through increased tidal current \r\namplitudes (by 5% on average), energy dissipation, vertical mixing \r\nand salinity intrusion (Prandle and Lane, 2015). Estuaries with high \r\ntidal exchanges and associated well-developed sediment areas are \r\nmore resilient to global climate changes than estuaries with low tidal \r\nexchanges and sediment supply, since the latter are more vulnerable \r\nto SLR and changes in river flow (Brown et al. 2018b; Warwick et al. \r\n2018) (medium confidence). "


id: 968ff909559dda2af0b0cf8cc651f768
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23691
content:
"Salinisation in estuaries is projected to continue in response to SLR, \r\nwarming and droughts under global warming greater than 1.5oC (high \r\nconfidence), and will pose further risks to ecosystems biodiversity and \r\nfunctioning (Zhou et al. 2017; Hallett et al. 2018; Zahid et al. 2018; \r\nElliott et al. 2019) (Section 4.3.3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 7) (medium \r\nconfidence). Estuarine wetlands are resilient to modest rates of SLR \r\ndue to their sediment relocation capacity, but such adaptation is not \r\nexpected to keep pace with projected rates of SLR under the RCP8.5 \r\nclimate scenario (Section 5.3.2) (high confidence). Moreover, human \r\nactivities that inhibit sediment movement and deposition in coastal \r\ndeltas increase the likelihood of their shrinking as a result of SLR \r\n(Brown et al. 2018b; Schuerch et al. 2018) (medium confidence)."


id: 9c5867630ec6d963e95a4c3ad2b1037e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24762
content:
"Coastal vegetated wetlands include salt marshes, mangrove forests \r\nand subtidal seagrass meadows ecosystems, considered to be the \r\nmain 'blue carbon' habitats (Sections 5.4.1 and 5.5.1.1) (McLeod \r\net al. 2011). AR5 WGII and SR15 concluded that wetland salinisation \r\nis occurring at a large geographic scale (high confidence); that rising \r\nwater temperatures has led to shifts in plant species distribution \r\n(medium confidence) (Wong et al. 2014b); and that SLR and storms \r\nare causing wetland erosion and habitat loss, enhanced by human \r\ndisturbances (high confidence) (Section 4.3.3.5.1) (Wong et  al. \r\n2014b). This section assesses new evidence since AR5 and SR15 \r\nof observed climate impacts and future risks of these vegetated \r\nwetlands in terms of their role in supporting biodiversity and key \r\necosystem functions. The recent literature confirms and strengthens \r\nthe SR15 conclusions (Section 5.3.7 and Figure 5.16)."


id: f0eb6340d13619442b65e1c9651ff5f9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39752
content:
"sensitive to higher temperatures and increases in saltwater intrusion \r\nwere found to be less abundant and in some cases replaced by \r\nsalinity-tolerant species (Janousek et al. 2017; Piovan et al. 2019). \r\nPlant community restructuring has resulted in biodiversity loss \r\n(Pratolongo et al. 2013; Raposa et al. 2017) and reduced above- and \r\nbelow-ground productivity (McLeod et al. 2011; Watson et al. 2017b). \r\nAs a result of tidal flooding, salt marsh soils do not dry out and high \r\nlevels of carbon can accumulate under anaerobic conditions. This \r\nis coupled with generally low rates of methane emission which is \r\nstrongly limited in saline marshes (Poffenbarger et al. 2011; Martin \r\nand Moseman-Valtierra, 2015; Kroeger et al. 2017; Tong et al. 2018) \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 530aa4dfa0a070f1c84e7e7d37111b54
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11871
content:
"The ability of salt marshes to increase their elevation and withstand \r\nerosion under SLR depends on the development of new soil by \r\nthe external supply of mineral sediments and organic accretion \r\nby local biota (Section 5.4.1, Figure 5.19) (Bouma et  al. 2016). In \r\nsome places, critical organic accretion rates are declining due to \r\nreduced plant productivity from stress by more frequent inundation, \r\nand increased plant and microbial respiration rates as a result of \r\nwarming; consequently, the elevation of marshes from soil accretion \r\nis slower than the rate of rising sea level, resulting in reduction of \r\nsalt marsh area (Carey et al. 2017; Watson et al. 2017b). Vegetation \r\nloss rates were significantly negatively correlated with marsh \r\nelevation, suggesting inundation due to SLR since 1970 as the \r\nmain driver, enhanced by storms and increased tidal range in back \r\nbarrier marshes (Watson et al. 2017b). Plant species that are more "


id: 14d71d37b1169e22c6ec56c4168f1400
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 895
content:
"The mangrove habitats of small islands, with lack of rivers, steep \r\ntopography, sediment-starved areas, groundwater extraction and \r\ncoastal development, are particularly vulnerable to SLR. Although \r\nmangrove ecosystems may survive the increased storm intensity and \r\nsea levels projected until 2100 under RCP2.6 (Ward et al. 2016), for \r\nRCP8.5 they are only resilient up to 2050 conditions (Sasmito et al. \r\n2016). Negative climate impacts will be exacerbated in cases where \r\nanthropogenic barriers cause further 'coastal squeeze' that prevents \r\ninland movement of plants and limits relocation of sediment (medium \r\nconfidence) (Enwright et al. 2016; Borchert et al. 2018)."


id: a20b182436c967ea3e1925ec8045ecc2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25747
content:
"Worldwide, sandy beaches show vegetation transformations caused \r\nby erosion following locally severe wave events (Castelle et al. 2017; \r\nDelgado-Fernandez et al. 2019; Zinnert et al. 2019) (Table SM5.7). The \r\noriginal dense vegetation is replaced by sparser vegetation (Zinnert \r\net  al. 2019) and has a generally slow recovery (multiple years to \r\ndecades) (Castelle et al. 2017). In some instances, the changes persist \r\nover decades, resulting in a regime shift in the beach morphology \r\n(Kuriyama and Yanagishima, 2018). Such changes in vegetation and \r\nbeach morphology in response to local disturbances were also related \r\nto shifts in the associated fauna composition (Carcedo et al. 2017; \r\nDelgado-Fernandez et al. 2019). Direct attribution of these observed \r\nevents to climate change is not available despite early evidence (since \r\nthe 1970s) and an emerging literature (Section 4.3.3.1, Table SM5.7)."


id: e26eb767405e8d96145ac80e589299c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37134
content:
"Sandy beaches show similar patterns of biogeographical shifts \r\nfollowing warming, with increased dominance of species more \r\ntolerant to higher temperatures, as observed in other ocean \r\necosystems (Section 5.2.3.1.1, Table SM5.7). Examples of these \r\nobserved shifts in abundance and distribution of benthic fauna in \r\nsandy beaches are found in the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North \r\nand South America, and in Australia, including increased mortality \r\nof clam populations close to their upper temperature limits with low \r\npopulation recovery (Orlando et al. 2019), and poleward expansion \r\nof crabs since the 1980s that were related to warming (Schoeman \r\net al. 2015) (Table SM5.7). Also, mass mortalities of beach clams have \r\noccurred during warm phases of El Nino events (Orlando et al. 2019) \r\n(Table SM5.7), parasite infestations on dense populations (Vazquez \r\net al. 2016) and high wave exposure (Turra et al. 2016)."


id: 2e16d645c68a1c577cf09beabe1d249
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5382
content:
"Human disturbances have caused coastal squeeze and morphological \r\nchanges in sandy beaches (Martinez et al. 2017; Rego et al. 2018; \r\nDelgado-Fernandez et al. 2019). Along with SLR and climate-driven \r\nintensification of waves and offshore winds, these hazards have \r\nincreased erosion rates suggesting a reduced resilience due to \r\ninsufficient sediment supply and accretion capacity (Castelle et  al. \r\n2017; Houser et al. 2018; Kuriyama and Yanagishima, 2018). Narrow \r\nsandy beaches such as those in south California (Vitousek et al. 2017) \r\nor central Chile (Martinez et al. 2017) are particularly vulnerable to \r\nclimate hazards when combined with human disturbances and \r\nwhere landward retreat of beach profile and benthic organisms is \r\nconstrained due to increasing urbanisation (Hubbard et  al. 2014) \r\n(Section 4.3.2.3)."


id: 16715d8490bae389c5192ba9ce6f305a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1166
content:
"Notwithstanding the uncertainty in projecting future interactions \r\nof SLR with other natural and human impacts on sandy shorelines \r\n(Le Cozannet et  al. 2019; Orlando et  al. 2019), they are expected \r\nto continue to reduce their area and change their topography due \r\nto SLR and increased extreme climatic erosive events. This will be \r\nespecially important in low-lying coastal areas with high population \r\nand building densities (medium confidence, SM 4.2). Megafauna \r\nthat use sandy beaches during vulnerable parts of their life cycles \r\ncould be particularly impacted (Laloe et al. 2017). For example, the \r\nmodelled incubation temperatures of green turtles have increased \r\nby 1oC since the mid-1970s, resulting in an average 20% increase in \r\nthe proportion of female hatchlings over this period (Patricio et al. \r\n2019). By 2100, global temperatures will approach lethal levels for \r\nincubation in existing nesting sites, and hatchling success is expected "


id: baabc98f60e66f192bd6409a0c45c3c4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30058
content:
"to community changes (Agostini et al. 2018) (high confidence). The \r\nrate of SLR (primarily noticed in small reef islands) may outpace the \r\ngrowth of reefs to keep up although there is low agreement in the \r\nliterature (Brown et al. 2011; Perry et al. 2018) (low confidence). Reefs \r\nare further exposed to other increased impacts, such as enhanced \r\nstorm intensity (Lavender et al. 2018), turbidity and increased runoff \r\nfrom the land (Kleypas, 2019) (high confidence). Recovery of coral \r\nreefs resulting from repeated disturbance events is slow (Hughes \r\net al. 2019a; Ingeman et al. 2019) (high confidence). Only few coral \r\nreef areas show some resilience to global change drivers (Fine et al. \r\n2019) (low confidence). "


id: 775265d1e7b83147ffc9f065779325a6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 18199
content:
"Human activities and warming have already led to major impacts on \r\nshallow water tropical coral reefs caused by species replacement, \r\nbleaching and decreased coral cover while warming, ocean acidification \r\nand climate hazards will put warm water corals at very high risk even \r\nif global warming can be limited to 1.5oC above pre-industrial level \r\n(Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018; Kubicek et al. 2019; Sully et al. 2019). \r\nWhile providing new evidence to support these previous assessments \r\n(Kleypas, 2019), this assessment focuses on evaluating the variations \r\nin sensitivities and responses of coral reefs and their associated biota \r\nto highlight comparative risks and resiliences. "


id: d4b8488873d206e177d03aaa901e4efd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34744
content:
"New evidence since AR5 and SR15 confirms the impacts of ocean \r\nwarming (Kao et al. 2018; Jury and Toonen, 2019) and acidification \r\n(Jiang et  al. 2018; Mollica et  al. 2018; Bove et  al. 2019) on coral \r\nreefs (high confidence), enhancing reef dissolution and bioerosion \r\n(high confidence), affecting coral species distribution, and leading "


id: 332404cdea48da97d369440d89a46b98
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6252
content:
"adaptive capacity of coral species to warming and ocean acidification \r\ncontribute to changes in species composition of coral reefs as they \r\nare exposed to climatic and non-climatic hazards (Ingeman et  al. \r\n2019; Kleypas, 2019; Kubicek et al. 2019) (high confidence). However, \r\nit has not yet been established whether coral and coral associated \r\nbiota adaptation may hold beyond 1.5oC warming. The onset of coral \r\nbleaching in the last decade has occurred at higher SSTs (~0.5oC) \r\nthan in the previous decade, suggesting that coral populations that \r\nremain after preceding bleaching events may have a higher thermal \r\nthreshold (Sully et  al. 2019) (medium confidence), potentially as \r\na result of the increased dominance of species with lower sensitivity \r\nor higher adaptive capacity (Schulz et al. 2013; McClanahan et al. \r\n2014; Mumby and van Woesik, 2014; Pandolfi, 2015; Folkersen, 2018) \r\n(medium confidence). "


id: 64873f9e2d25287dc5dee6285b387ef6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14962
content:
"IPCC AR5 (Wong et al. 2014a) concluded that rocky shores are among \r\nthe better-understood coastal ecosystems in terms of potential \r\nimpacts of climate variability and change. The high sensitivity of \r\nsessile organisms (e.g., barnacles, mussels) to extreme temperature \r\nevents (e.g., mass mortality and drastic biodiversity loss of mussels \r\nbeds), and to acidification (widely observed in manipulative \r\nexperiments) gives high confidence that rocky shore species are at \r\nhigh risk of changes in distribution and abundance from these two \r\ndrivers. SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. 2018) concluded that rocky \r\ncoasts are already experiencing large-scale changes, and critical \r\nthresholds are expected to be reached at warming of 1.5oC and \r\nabove (high confidence)."


id: d07f6a40909f88b1c9128e9f2b975f33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 34033
content:
"Based on findings from simulation modelling, SR15 concluded that \r\n\"coral reefs are projected to decline by a further 70-90% at 1.5oC \r\n(very high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) at 2oC (very high \r\nconfidence)\". The variations in exposure, sensitivity and adaptive \r\ncapacity between coral populations and regions are further projected \r\nto cause large changes in the composition and structure of the \r\nremaining coral reefs, with large regional differences (van Hooidonk \r\net al. 2016; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018; Kleypas, 2019; Kubicek et al. \r\n2019; Sully et al. 2019). "


id: 440466c8c439df7de8a75d1808faea5e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9204
content:
"Ocean acidification is expected to decrease the net calcification \r\n(high confidence) and abundance (medium confidence) of rocky \r\nintertidal and reef-associated species (Kroeker et al. 2013), and the \r\ndissolution of calcareous species has already been documented \r\nin tide-pool communities (Kwiatkowski et  al. 2016; Duarte and \r\nKrause-Jensen, 2018). Recent experimental and field studies, \r\nhowever, have demonstrated the importance of food resources in \r\nmediating the effects of ocean acidification on vulnerable rocky \r\nshores species (Ciais et  al. 2013; Ramajo et  al. 2016), suggesting \r\nthat species' vulnerability to ocean acidification may be most "


id: 28feaaec9467d24280f2d0f81be0e4bd
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4424
content:
"Rocky shore ecosystems span the intertidal and shallow subtidal \r\nzones of the world's temperate coasts and are typically dominated \r\nby calcareous mussels or seaweeds (macroalgae). Other organisms \r\nthat inhabit rocky shores are coralline algae (i.e.,  maerl beds), \r\npolychaetes, molluscs, bryozoans and sponges. Intertidal habitats are \r\ncharacterised by strong environmental gradients, and are exposed \r\nto marine and atmospheric climate regimes (Hawkins et al. 2016). "


id: a09ee3eec03d3c2cdca36f98e0475705
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25469
content:
"pronounced in areas of high heat stress and low food availability \r\n(medium confidence) (Kroeker et  al. 2017). There is increasing \r\nevidence that the interactions between multiple climate drivers \r\nwill determine species vulnerability and the ecosystem impacts of \r\nclimate change (Hewitt et al. 2016)."


id: 837addd9c8d5d79c61c6794982104dad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20271
content:
"Kelp forests are three-dimensional, highly productive coastal \r\necosystems with a reported global NPP between 1.02-1.96 GtC yr-1\r\n(Krause-Jensen and Duarte, 2016). They cover about 25% of the \r\nworld's coastline (Filbee-Dexter et al. 2016), mostly temperate and \r\npolar (Steneck et  al. 2003). Canopy-forming macroalgae provide \r\nhabitat for many associated invertebrates and fish communities \r\n(Pessarrodona et al. 2019). This assessment synthesises new evidence \r\nsince SR15 on climate risks and impacts, and their interactions \r\nwith non-climatic drivers on ecosystem biodiversity, structure \r\nand functioning."


id: 251e02a48a36debcc11c98a6dcc32925
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3723
content:
"Studies on naturally acidified rocky reef ecosystems suggest \r\nocean acidification will simplify rocky shore ecosystems, due to \r\nan overgrowth by macroalgae, a reduction in biodiversity and \r\na reduction in the abundance of calcareous species (medium \r\nconfidence) (Kroeker et al. 2013; Linares et al. 2015). These shifts in \r\ncommunity structure and function have been observed in CO2 seep \r\ncommunities (Hall-Spencer et al. 2008), already exposed to levels of \r\npCO2 expected to generally occur by the end of the century (Agostini \r\net al. 2018). Reductions in the abundance of calcareous herbivores \r\nthat can create space for rarer species by grazing the dominant algae, \r\nare expected to contribute to the overgrowth of fleshy macroalgae \r\non rocky shores (Baggini et al. 2015). This shift towards macroalgae \r\nis associated with a simplification of the food web at lower trophic \r\nlevels (Kroeker et al. 2011). "


id: cf494656dae2238eb4a9f4293e67bc39
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33818
content:
"Observational and experimental evidence since SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net  al. 2018) supports its conclusions that kelp forests are already \r\nexperiencing large-scale changes, and that critical thresholds occur for \r\nsome forests at 1.5oC of global warming (high confidence). Due to their \r\nlow capacity to relocate and high sensitivity to warming, kelp forests \r\nare projected to experience higher frequency of mass mortality events \r\nas the exposure to extreme temperature rises (very high confidence). \r\nMoreover, changes in ocean currents have facilitated the entry of \r\ntropical herbivorous fish into temperate kelp forests decreasing their \r\ndistribution and abundance (medium confidence). More evidence from \r\nmodel projections in the 21st century supports this observed range \r\ncontraction of kelp forests at the warm end of their distributional \r\nmargins and expansion at the poleward end with the rate being faster \r\nfor high emission scenarios (high confidence)."


id: f3b018b98265e07a3a152a9b241c1dc9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40247
content:
"New global estimates show that the abundance of kelp forests \r\nhas decreased at a rate of ~2% per year over the past half century \r\n(Wernberg et  al. 2019), mainly due to ocean warming and marine \r\nheat waves (e.g., in western Australia a mean loss of 43% in area \r\nfollowed a marine heat weave in summer 2010-2011 (Wernberg et al. \r\n2016), Section 6.4.2.1), as well as from other human stressors (high \r\nconfidence) (Filbee-Dexter and Wernberg, 2018). At some localities, \r\nhuman-driven environmental changes such as coastal eutrophication \r\nand pollution is causing severe deterioration of kelp forests adding to \r\nthe loss of these ecosystems from warming, storms and heat weaves \r\n(Andersen et al. 2013; Filbee-Dexter and Wernberg, 2018). "


id: 77c61e03dae3f7d7be6ce588dc6b56be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Overall, intertidal rocky shores ecosystems are highly sensitive to \r\nocean warming, acidification and extreme heat exposure during \r\nlow tide emersion (high confidence). More field and experimental \r\nevidence shows that these ecosystems are at a moderate risk at \r\npresent and this level is expected to rise to very high under the \r\nRCP8.5 scenario by the end of the century (see Section 5.3.7). \r\nBenthic species will continue to relocate in the intertidal zones \r\nand experience mass mortality events due to warming (high \r\nconfidence). Interactive effects between acidification and warming \r\nwill exacerbate the negative impacts on rocky shore communities, \r\ncausing a shift towards a less diverse ecosystem in terms of species \r\nrichness and complexity, increasingly dominated by macroalgae \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 43cc35472445a4561c70abc8296bc636
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9156
content:
"documented since the 1970s and evidence has increased within the \r\nlast two decades (Filbee-Dexter and Wernberg, 2018). Despite a lack \r\nof data from some regions such as South America (Perez-Matus \r\net al. 2017), observational evidence since SR15 supports with very\r\nhigh confidence that warming is driving a contraction of kelp forests \r\nat low latitudes (Franco et  al. 2018b; Casado-Amezua et  al. 2019; \r\nPessarrodona et al. 2019) and expansion in polar regions (medium \r\nconfidence) (Section 3.2.3.1.2) (Bartsch et al. 2016; Paar et al. 2016). "


id: ee6ad1c4edce720408beb7f1c37879bb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39321
content:
"areas (Wilson  et  al. 2019). Overall, model projections show that \r\nworldwide range contractions of kelps can be expected to continue \r\nat the warm end of distributional margins and range expansions at \r\ntheir poleward end (high confidence) (Raybaud et  al. 2013; Assis \r\net al. 2016; Assis et al. 2018; Wilson et al. 2019)."


id: e0138de12e4d80062bc043589e721187
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36666
content:
"In summary, kelp forests have experienced large-scale habitat loss \r\nand degradation of ecosystem structure and functioning over the \r\npast half century, implying a moderate to high level of risk at present \r\nconditions of global warming (high confidence) (Section 5.3.7). The \r\nloss of kelp forests is followed by the colonisation of turfs, which \r\ncontributes to the reduction in habitat complexity, carbon storage \r\nand diversity (high confidence). Kelp ecosystems are expected to \r\ncontinue to decline in temperate regions driven by ocean warming \r\nand intensification of extreme climate events (high confidence). The \r\nlevel of risk for the ecosystem is projected to rise to very high under \r\nRCP8.5 scenario by 2100 (high confidence). "


id: 641b133dc0e8134d470441e4cfe2b12b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14895
content:
"Projections of future distribution of kelp species based on their \r\nphysiological thresholds show major species-specific range shifts \r\nunder different emission scenarios. For example, under RCP2.6, \r\nlaminaria and other canopy-forming seaweed species in the \r\nNorthwest Atlantic are projected to show northward range shifts \r\nat their southern (warm) edge of <=40 km, with some equatorial \r\nrange expansion from 2050 to 2100. That northward range shift \r\nincreases to 406 km under RCP8.5 (at 13-19 km per decade, \r\nincluding contractions of their warmer edges) (Wilson et al. 2019). \r\nWhilst no changes in species richness are projected under RCP2.6, \r\nmore than 50% richness loss is projected under RCP8.5 in some "


id: c6440c843c166aa20969ad393c07fd22
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32193
content:
"Detection and attribution studies show that climate change impacts \r\nbegan over the past 50 years in coastal ecosystems, indicating \r\na transition from undetectable risk (white areas in Figure 5.16) \r\nto moderate risk below recent sea surface temperatures for some \r\necosystems (high confidence). This transition occurs at lower \r\nglobal levels of sea surface warming for coral reefs (0.2oC-0.4oC) \r\n(high confidence), seagrass meadows (0.5oC-0.8oC) (very high \r\nconfidence) and kelp forests (0.6oC-1.0oC) (high confidence), "


id: f2f9769d799af6a6aa4f578cefdeb862
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 40138
content:
"with coral reefs already at high risk (0.4oC-0.6oC) for the present \r\nday (very high confidence). Global common responses include \r\nlarge-scale coral bleaching events (Section 5.3.4) and contraction of \r\nseagrass meadows (Section 5.3.2) and kelp forests (Section 5.3.6) at \r\nlow-latitudes (high confidence), in response to warming and marine \r\nheat waves. Degraded coral reefs and kelp forests have shifted to \r\nalgal and turf-dominated ecosystem at several regions worldwide, \r\ncausing loss of habitat complexity and biodiversity."


id: 829661c13509245eb14236bba5947b9a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20102
content:
"The transition from undetectable to moderate risk in salt marshes \r\n(Section 5.3.2) and rocky shores (Section 5.3.5) takes place between \r\n0.7oC-1.2oC of global sea surface warming (medium/high confidence), \r\nand between 0.9oC-1.8oC (medium confidence) in sandy beaches \r\n(Section 5.3.3), estuaries (Section 5.3.1) and mangrove forests \r\n(Section 5.3.2) (Figure 5.16). In all these coastal ecosystems, the detection \r\nand attribution of changes in biodiversity, structure and functioning "


id: a51aef56d06df9d6b5f34796fe302d4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26277
content:
"expected to be only slightly higher than present for a low emission \r\nscenario than today (medium confidence, Figure 5.16)."


id: 189751f8eb6eaa8efd434f12fa25e108
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1538
content:
"In all coastal ecosystems, multiple climate hazards will emerge from \r\nhistorical variability in the 21st century under RCP8.5 (Box 5.1), while \r\nthe time of emergence will be later and with less climate hazard under \r\nRCP2.6. Non-climatic human impacts such as eutrophication add to, \r\nand in some cases, exacerbate these large-scale slow climate drivers \r\nbeyond biological thresholds at local scale (e.g., deoxygenation). "


id: 2c3d46456b56ecd7201d9ea1e96116ae
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 5047
content:
"All types of ecosystems that have been assessed in the open ocean \r\n(Sections 5.2.3 and 5.2.4) and coastal areas (Sections 5.3.1 to 5.3.6) \r\nshow increased risk under both the low and the high emission \r\nscenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) compared with the present level of \r\nchange (Figure 5.16). In all assessed cases with all of the factors \r\nconsidered (climate drivers and physiological understanding), RCP2.6 \r\nhas a lower level of risk than RCP8.5 (very high confidence). "


id: 919b6ac2600ac55b560cce5222b46c17
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22845
content:
"Ecosystem services are the environmental processes and functions \r\nthat have monetary or intrinsic value to human society; they render \r\nbenefits to people and support human well-being (Tallis et al. 2010; \r\nCostanza et  al. 2014). Marine ecosystem services are generated \r\nthroughout the ocean, from shallow water to the deep sea \r\n(Armstrong et al. 2012; Thurber et al. 2014). Although all ecosystem \r\nservices are interconnected (Leadley et al. 2014), they can be broadly \r\ndivided into provisioning services, regulating services, supporting \r\nservices and cultural services (Sandifer and Sutton-Grier, 2014), as \r\nconsidered below (Section 5.4.1) together with their implications for \r\nhuman well-being (Section 5.4.2). Ecosystem services have also been \r\ndescribed as 'nature's contribution to people' (Diaz et al. 2018). "


id: 8d5f16cac7a3c0adaeab17076e3e9a56
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22053
content:
"AR5 WGII concluded that climate change increases the risk of \r\nimpacts on the goods and services derived from marine biodiversity \r\nand ecosystems (Portner et al. 2014). SR15 concluded that current \r\necosystem services from the ocean are expected to be reduced at \r\n1.5oC of global warming, with losses being even greater at 2oC of \r\nglobal warming. These reductions in services are driven by decreasing \r\nocean productivity, biogeographic shifts, damage to ecosystems, \r\nloss of fisheries productivity and changes to ocean chemistry (high \r\nconfidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018). Building on these previous \r\nassessments, this section assesses new evidence on observed \r\nimpacts and future risk of climate change on ecosystem goods and \r\nservices from the open ocean (Section 5.2) and coastal ecosystems \r\n(Section 5.3). Chapter 3 assesses ecosystem services in polar oceans."


id: 2873dcf1c649d2ef9f9e2c2772b9cdaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4323
content:
"Fisheries are an important provisioning service from marine \r\necosystems, providing food, nutrition, income and livelihoods for many \r\nmillions of people around the world (FAO, 2018). Globally, total fish \r\ncatches amount to 80-105 Mt annually in the 2000s (FAO, 2016; FAO \r\n2018; Pauly and Zeller, 2016), directly generating over 80 billion USD \r\nof revenue (Sumaila et al. 2015). Most global fisheries are considered \r\nto be fully- to over-exploited (FAO, 2018). Over 80% of the global fish \r\ncatch is estimated to be from coastal and shelf seas with less than \r\n20% from the high seas (Sumaila et al. 2015) (Figure 5.17)."


id: b8b7b984e14df13e0506d0f31e4bf3e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29706
content:
"Changes in fish catches from 1998 to 2006 in 47 large marine \r\necosystems around the world were found to be significantly related \r\nto: changes in estimated cholorophyll a (a proxy for phytoplankton \r\nbiomass) in 18 of these ecosystems (mostly tropical and eastern \r\nboundary upwelling systems); changes in SST in 12 of these \r\necosystems (mostly mid-latitude); and changes in fishing intensity \r\nin 16 of these ecosystems (widely spread) (McOwen et  al. 2015). \r\nAnalysis of population data since the 1950s for 262 fish stocks across "


id: 9b88aec1f2d4a62ce7cf73cbd424ef83
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24613
content:
"impacts on fish stocks and their catches (Breitburg et al. 2018). Overall, \r\nthe abundance of fisheries resources and potential catches from the \r\ndeep sea will be at high risk of impacts in the 21st century under RCP8.5 \r\n(low confidence), with reduced risk under RCP2.6 (medium confidence). "


id: db3943f0aaacf1fb16ee47b405badaaa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35843
content:
"by 2100 under RCP8.5 with large regional variations (Froehlich et al. \r\n2018). Modelling analyses for farmed Atlantic salmon, cobia and \r\nseabream also suggest that climate change would reduce their growth \r\npotential in ocean areas where temperature is projected to increase to \r\nlevels outside the thermal tolerance ranges of these species (Klinger \r\net  al. 2017). This decrease in growth could therefore translate into \r\na decrease in the general productivity of the sector (limited evidence, \r\nlow confidence); however, new potential areas and the use of more \r\nclimate resilient strains or species for mariculture may emerge that \r\ncould reduce the risk of impacts on potential mariculture production \r\n(limited evidence, low confidence)."


id: 60965e62c8bae1879cf3d354489d561b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14293
content:
"In addition to capture fisheries, mariculture (marine aquaculture) is also \r\nan important marine ecosystem provisioning service, contributing about \r\n27.7 million tonnes of seafood in 2016 (FAO, 2018). Recent projections \r\nof climate change impacts on mariculture, based on thermal tolerance \r\nand the effects of changing temperature, primary production and \r\nocean acidification, suggest an overall decline in mariculture potential "


id: 9049fcc162f8511482bc904d393bfd70
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22588
content:
"The climate change impacts on ecosystem services from EBUS vary according to the biophysical and the socioeconomic characteristics of \r\nthe upwelling systems (Garcia-Reyes et al. 2015) (SM5.4). The fisheries are not only highly sensitive to upwelling conditions but \r\nalso by fishing effects on the exploited populations. For example, the anchoveta population collapsed in the Humboldt Current after an \r\nEl Nino in the 1970s (Gutierrez et al. 2017). Because small pelagic fisheries from upwelling regions are the main source of the global \r\nfishmeal market, decreases in their catches increase the international fishmeal price, increasing the price of other food commodities (like \r\naquaculture derived fish) that rely on fishmeal for their production (Merino et al. 2010; Carlson et al. 2017)."


id: 91edf6b0d4fd4fbd6f1b748ebfc914b0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22893
content:
"Any decrease in fish catches in EBUS will affect regional food security. For example, coastal fisheries in the Canary Current are an \r\nimportant source of micronutrients to nearby West African countries (Golden et al. 2016) that have particularly high susceptibility \r\nto climate change impacts and low adaptive capacity, because of their strong dependence on the fisheries resources, a rapidly \r\ngrowing population and regional conflicts. Decreased small pelagic fish stocks also increase the mortality and reduce reproduction \r\nof larger vertebrates such as hake (Guevara-Carrasco and Lleonart, 2008), whales and seabirds (Essington et al. 2015). Impacts on \r\nthese organisms affect other non-fishing sectors that are dependent on EBUS, such as whale watching in the California Current, \r\nand generally degrade their intrinsic value."


id: 66ac48c7e9bcd739ef9927bfcd4e85d6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15321
content:
"forming critical linkages between rivers, estuaries, and oceans \r\n(Najjar et al. 2018). Mean carbon storage in the top meter of soil \r\nis estimated at 280 MgC ha-1 for mangroves, 250 MgC ha-1 for \r\nsalt marshes, and 140 MgC ha-1 for seagrass meadows, with long\u0002term rates of carbon accumulation in sediments of salt marshes, \r\nmangroves, and seagrasses ranging from 18-1713 gC m-2 yr-1\r\n(Pendleton et al. 2012). These values are, however, highly variable \r\n(Section 5.5.1.2). The large space and time scales mean that there \r\nis a long time-lag between seafloor change and detectable changes \r\nin carbon sequestration. These large lags, in turn render assessment \r\nof climate impacts on regulatory services in the deep ocean having \r\nlow confidence."


id: 2006cc1df730367a7eed65e48cd0f128
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2849
content:
"Regulating services are those ecosystem functions, like climate \r\nregulation, that allow the environment to be in conditions conducive \r\nto human well-being and development (Costanza et al. 2017). AR5 \r\nWGII concluded that climate change will alter biological, chemical \r\nand physical processes in the ocean that provide feedback on the \r\nclimate system through their effects on atmospheric composition \r\n(high confidence) (Portner et al. 2014). Sections 5.2 and 5.3 consider \r\nnew evidence since AR5 regarding climate impacts on marine \r\necosystems and associated risks; their implications for regulating \r\nservices are examined here."


id: 3dcfa62ba10168d554c3eedc0614355d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8041
content:
"A major regulating service provided by marine ecosystems is carbon \r\nsequestration. The observed net carbon uptake from the atmosphere \r\nto the global ocean varied between 1.0-2.5 GtC yr-1 between 2000 \r\nand 2012, with a very likely uptake of 30-38 Gt of anthropogenic C \r\nover the period 1994-2007 (Section 5.2.2.3, Gruber et  al. 2019). \r\nEstimates of carbon sequestered in the deep ocean range from \r\n0.4 GtC yr-1 (Rogers, 2015) to 1.6 GtC yr-1 (Armstrong et al. 2010) \r\nwith the annual burial rate (permanent removal to sediment) around \r\n0.2 GtC yr-1 (Armstrong et al. 2010)."


id: 38319f5aa1896bd3d39c1c7c0e5fa532
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7091
content:
"Deep sea ecosystems also contribute to the removal of methane \r\nreleased from the beneath the seabed through microbial anaerobic \r\noxidation and the sequestration of methane-derived carbon in \r\ncarbonate (Marlow et  al. 2014; Thurber et  al. 2014). In coastal \r\necosystems, carbon is biologically sequestered in coastal sediments, \r\ncommonly known as 'blue carbon' (Section 5.5.1). Tidal wetlands \r\nplay disproportionately important roles in coastal carbon budgets, "


id: 7de7fa0f8488b954e625689baaa6a85e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19330
content:
"due to uncertainties associated with the structure of the models \r\nand with the future behaviour of the biological carbon pump \r\n(Section 5.2.2.3.1, 5.2.3)."


id: 4c34c3402ddaa4c16956ac574b0d8d77
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10667
content:
"Supporting ecosystem services are structures and processes, such as \r\nhabitats, biodiversity and productivity, that maintain the ecosystem \r\nfunctions that deliver other services (Costanza et al. 2017). Marine \r\nsupporting services include: primary and secondary production; \r\nhabitat provision for feeding, spawning or nursery grounds, and \r\nrefugia; and biodiversity. All these provide essential support for \r\nprovisioning, regulating or cultural services (Haines-Young and "


id: 5525cf75a738e8360371150aa15e57b7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12253
content:
"Figure 5.19 | Biogeomorphic climate feedbacks involving plant biomass, sediment accretion and inundation that control the response of vegetated coastal ecosystems to \r\nrising sea levels. (A) Under high rates of soil formation plants are able to offset gradual sea level rise (SLR) and may produce a negative feedback by increasing the uptake \r\nof atmospheric CO2. In addition, below ground root production contributes to the formation of new soils and consolidates the seabed substrates. (B) Under low rate of soil \r\nformation, and when SLRs exceed critical thresholds, plants become severely stressed by inundation leading to less organic accretion and below ground subsidence and \r\ndecay, producing a positive feedback by net CO2 outgassing. This figure does not consider landward movements, controlled by topography and human land-use."


id: 6b4a0136b91e8a7a8ba4ab4f24951f9e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16176
content:
"Potschin, 2013; Bopp et al. 2017). Therefore, climate change impacts \r\non supporting services provided by marine ecosystems are directly \r\ndependent on the risks and impacts on their biodiversity and \r\necosystem functions, which are assessed in Sections 5.2.3, 5.2.4 and \r\n5.3. Previously, AR5 highlighted the importance of the potential loss \r\nor degradation of habitat forming calcifying algae and corals, and \r\nthe projected changes in waterways for Arctic shipping (Portner et al. \r\n2014). The latter topic is considered in Chapter 3 and Section 5.4.2.4."


id: 593d211cdd92ed54f8436272fc6625d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12944
content:
"support the conclusion in WGII AR5 that the intrinsic values and \r\ncultural importance of marine ecosystems, such as indigenous culture, \r\nrecreational fishing and tourism, that are dependent on biodiversity \r\nand other ecosystem functions, are at risk from climate change. \r\nSince marine cultural services are inherently integrated with human \r\nwell-being, their assessment is provided in Section 5.4.2."


id: 418e035b3a73d5476331f41caa7db1be
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8723
content:
"Human communities heavily depend on the ocean through the \r\ngoods and services provided by marine ecosystems (Section 5.4.1) \r\n(Hilmi et  al. 2015). The values of ocean-based economic activities \r\nare estimated to be trillions of USD, generating hundreds of \r\nmillions of jobs (Hoegh-Guldberg, 2015; Spalding, 2016). As climate \r\nchange is impacting marine biodiversity and ecosystem services \r\n(Section 5.3.1), human communities and their well-being will also be \r\naffected. This section is based on diverse types of information, from \r\nquantitative modelling to qualitative studies, using expert opinion, \r\nlocal knowledge and Indigenous knowledge (Cross-Chapter Box 4 \r\nin Chapter 1). Projection and assessment of risk and vulnerabilities \r\nnot only depend on climate change scenarios but are also strongly \r\ndependent on scenarios of future social-economic development \r\n(Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1)."


id: cace570bade80a41520be9159b4b2b44
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33023
content:
"This assessment divides the linkages between ecosystem services \r\nand human communities and their well-being into the three pillars \r\nof sustainable development, as used by the World Commission on \r\nEnvironment and Development. The three pillars are social and \r\ncultural, economic and environmental. Table 5.6 lists the specific \r\ndimensions under these pillars that are assessed in this section. \r\nSynthesis of risks and opportunities of climate change on human \r\ncommunities and well-being is at the end of this section through \r\nthe lens of ocean economy and the United Nations' Sustainable \r\nDevelopment Goals (SDGs)."


id: 1c55f86a58262d829dbb8f2b0d2b8637
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2173
content:
"Cultural ecosystem services include recreation, tourism, aesthetic, \r\ncultural identity and spiritual experiences. These services are a product \r\nof humans experiencing nature and the availability of nature to provide \r\nthe experiences (Chan et  al. 2012). There is increasing evidence to "


id: f37113c7183a5b57afafaaf9696e74ad
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vector_id: 40206
content:
"due to SLR are projected to exacerbate the expansion and threat of \r\ncholera (Portner et al. 2014) (medium confidence). This assessment \r\nfocuses on health risks caused by Vibrio bacteria and HABs. Vibrio \r\ncholerae (causing cholera) is estimated to be responsible for around \r\n760,000 and 650,000 cases of human illness and death respectively \r\nin the world in 2010 (Kirk et  al. 2015). An assessment of HABs is \r\ngiven in Box 5.4. "


id: 85451c42f9dcfa65c73ee7dbbb278a0a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20586
content:
"SR15 concluded that climate change will result in an aerial expansion \r\nand increased risk of water-borne disease with regional differences \r\n(high to very high confidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et  al. 2018). AR5 \r\nconcluded that warming, excessive nutrient and seawater inundation "


id: 88bff12b00ace1a62acaa566f8da077a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 21221
content:
"Given the worldwide distribution of the key toxic species of Alexandrium, Pseudo-nitzschia and Dinophysis, if the current \r\nrelationship between warming and the occurrences of HABs associated with these species persists in the future (Gobler et al. 2017; \r\nTownhill et al. 2018) (medium confidence), the projected changes in ocean conditions can be expected to intensify HAB-related risks for \r\ncoastal biodiversity and ecosystems services (high confidence). The greatest risk is expected for estuarine organisms (Section 5.3.1) \r\nbecause HABs occurrences are stimulated by riverine nutrient loads, and exacerbated by warming and the lower dissolved oxygen and \r\npH in estuarine environments (Gobler and Baumann, 2016; Paredes-Banda et al. 2018). "


id: 6d241c5272bea45b98a927c7c48dfe33
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16479
content:
"Local scale sustained monitoring programmes and early warning systems for HABs can alert resource managers and stakeholders of their \r\npotential occurrences so that they can take actions (e.g., toxic seafood alerts or relocation of activities) to reduce the impacts of HABs \r\n(Anderson et al. 2015; Wells et al. 2015) (high confidence). There is limited evidence in determining the degree to which reduction of \r\nnon-climatic anthropogenic stressors can reduce risk of HABs (Section 5.5.2), although this approach may be effective in some areas (low \r\nconfidence); for example, controlling nutrient inputs from human sources may reduce the risk of occurrence of HABs in the Baltic Sea. \r\nOther techniques such as active chemical and biological interventions are at experimental stage."


id: 5887a1b8719265289ffc7b44ac335b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12822
content:
"Overall, the occurrence of HABs, their toxicity and risk on natural and human systems are projected to continue to increase with \r\nwarming and rising CO2 in the 21st century (Glibert et al. 2014; Martin-Garcia et al. 2014; McCabe et al. 2016; Paerl et al. 2016; \r\nGobler et al. 2017; McKibben et al. 2017; Rodriguez et al. 2017; Paerl et al. 2018; Riebesell et al. 2018) (high confidence). Moreover, \r\npoleward distributional shifts of HAB species are expected to continue as a result of warming (Townhill et al. 2018). The increasing \r\nlikelihood of occurrences of HABs under climate change also elevates their risks on ecosystem services such as fisheries, aquaculture \r\nand tourism as well as public health (Section 5.4.2, high confidence). Such risks will be greatest in poorly monitored areas \r\n(Borbor-Cordova et al. 2018; Cuellar-Martinez et al. 2018). "


id: dc76621bb6a1edfd4e923934283835da
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36054
content:
"methyl mercury under climate change, with an average increases in \r\nMeHg concentrations in marine species of 1.6-1.8% and 4.1-4.7% \r\nunder ocean warming scenarios of 0.8oC and 2.0oC, respectively, with \r\nan associated increase in potential human intake of mercury beyond \r\nlevels recommended by the World Health Organization (Booth and \r\nZeller, 2005). Foodweb modeling for the northeastern Pacific projects \r\nthat concentrations of MeHg and PCBs in top predators could \r\nincrease by 8% and 3%, respectively, by 2100 under RCP8.5 relative \r\nto current levels (Alava et al. 2018). Climate-related pollution risks \r\nare of particular concern in Arctic ecosystems and their associated \r\nindigenous communities because of the bioaccumulation of POPs \r\nand MeHg, causing long-term contamination of traditional seafoods \r\n(Marques et al. 2010; Tirado et al. 2010; Alava et al. 2017) of high \r\ndietary importance (Cisneros-Montemayor et al. 2016). "


id: 163eba27dd795af97fad36a1ca816cfb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1128
content:
"Overall, climate change can increase the exposure and bioaccumulation \r\nof contaminants and thus the risk of impacts of POPs and MeHg on \r\nmarine ecosystems and their dependent human communities as \r\nsuggested by indirect evidence and model simulations (Marques \r\net  al. 2010; Tirado et  al. 2010; Alava et  al. 2017) (high agreement). \r\nHowever, there is limited evidence on observed increase in POPs and \r\nMeHg due to climate change. Apex predators and human communities \r\nthat consume them, including Arctic communities and other coastal \r\nindigenous populations, are thus vulnerable to increase in exposure to \r\nthese contaminants and the resulting health effects (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement). "


id: aef06cdcae10b63c350c0064f67b7b7e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28019
content:
"Inorganic forms of mercury are more soluble in low pH water, while \r\nhigher temperature increases mercury uptake and the metabolic \r\nactivity of bacteria, thereby increasing mercury methylation, uptake \r\nby organisms and bioaccumulation rates (Scheuhammer, 1991; \r\nCelo et  al. 2006; Lopez et  al. 2010; Macdonald and Loseto, 2010; \r\nRiget et al. 2010; Corbitt et al. 2011; Krabbenhoft and Sunderland, \r\n2013; Roberts et al. 2013; de Orte et al. 2014; McKinney et al. 2015), \r\nalthough there is limited evidence on the extent of exacerbation by \r\nocean acidification expected in the 21st century. Increased melting of \r\nsnow and ice from alpine ecosystems and mountains (Chapter 2) can \r\nalso increase the release of POPs and MeHg from land-based sources \r\ninto coastal ecosystems (Morrissey et al. 2005). Modelling projections \r\nfor the Faroe Islands region suggest increased bioaccumulation of "


id: 386d53bbbc0cfb9a8d53c15c7eee1f5c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7135
content:
"The risk of microplastics has become a major concern for the \r\nocean as they are highly persistent and have accumulated in many \r\ndifferent marine environments, including the deep sea (Woodall \r\net al. 2014; GESAMP, 2015; van Sebille et al. 2015; Waller et al. 2017; "


id: af0434542f8458f6049cfe0b21e19252
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28037
content:
"de Sa et al. 2018; Everaert et al. 2018; Botterell et al. 2019). There is \r\nlimited evidence at present to assess their risk to marine ecosystems, \r\nwildlife and potentially humans through human consumption of \r\nseafood under climate change. "


id: 5504cf02a77883e0b1ae2429e05d8c07
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12228
content:
"Seafood provides protein, fatty acids, vitamins and other micronutrients \r\nessential for human health such as iodine and selenium (Golden \r\net  al. 2016). Over 4.5 billion people in the world obtain more than \r\n15% of their protein intake from seafood, including algae and marine \r\nmammals as well as fish and shellfish (Bene et al. 2015; FAO, 2017). \r\nAround 1.39 billion people obtain at least 20% of their supply of \r\nessential micronutrients from fish (Golden et al. 2016). SR15 concluded \r\nthat global warming poses large risks to food security globally and \r\nregionally, especially in low-latitude areas, including fisheries (medium \r\nconfidence) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018). This section builds on the \r\nassessment on observed and projected climate impacts on fish catches \r\n(Section 5.4.1.1) and further assess how such impacts interact with \r\nother climatic and non-climatic drivers in affecting food security \r\nthrough fisheries."


id: 1897fe4dc106ecdc70bdc0d01617ddab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1539
content:
"Non-climatic factors may exacerbate climate effects on seafood security. \r\nOver-exploitation of fish stocks reduces fish catches (Section 5.4.1.1) \r\n(Golden et  al. 2016), whilst strong cultural dependence on seafood \r\nin many coastal communities may pose constraints in their adaptive "


id: 21265c761a812132933c4c42da1f4330
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3052
content:
"communities (low confidence) and reduce coastal Indigenous \r\ncommunities' reliance on seafood-based diets (low confidence). \r\nProjected decreases in potential fish catches in tropical areas (high \r\nconfidence) and a possible decrease in the nutritional content of \r\nseafood (low confidence) will further increase the risk of impacts on \r\nfood security in low-latitude developing regions, with that risk being \r\ngreater under high emission scenarios (medium confidence)."


id: 3bfc6c3b5bad6fc26f247a468fe93f35
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7744
content:
"Climate change threatens key cultural dimensions of lives and \r\nlivelihoods (Adger et  al. 2012), because people develop strong \r\ncultural ties and associate distinctive meanings with many natural \r\nplaces and biota in the form of traditions, customs and ways of \r\nlife (Marshall et  al. 2018). These impacts have been felt both \r\nby indigenous and non-indigenous peoples. Recent estimates \r\nsuggest that there are more than 1900 indigenous groups along \r\nthe coastline with around 27 million people across 87 countries \r\n(Cisneros-Montemayor et  al. 2016). AR5 concluded that climate \r\nchange will affect the harvests of marine species with spiritual and \r\naesthetic importance to indigenous cultures (Portner et al. 2014). \r\nThis section further assesses the effects of climate change on \r\nIndigenous knowledge and local knowledge and their transmission "


id: 68296a3a2fc3cea3234ab8bbc1d1210b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15591
content:
"In summary, the food security of many coastal communities, \r\nparticularly in low-latitude developing regions, is vulnerable to \r\ndecreases in seafood supply (medium confidence) because of their \r\nstrong dependence on seafood to meet their basic nutritional \r\nrequirements (medium confidence), limited alternative sources of \r\nsome of the essential nutrients obtained from seafood (medium \r\nconfidence), and exposure to multiple hazards on their food security \r\n(high confidence). Although direct evidence from attribution analysis \r\nis not available, climate change may have already contributed to \r\nmalnutrition by decreasing seafood supply in these vulnerable "


id: 8fb459ae20c8ea95a4abfe618c235395
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22492
content:
"and the implication for well-being of people, complementing the \r\nassessment for Arctic indigenous people in Chapter 3. "


id: 2b4fd5ec873ca727580fb6681ea7d77a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4868
content:
"An important marine ecosystem service is to support such education \r\n(Malone, 2016). Thus, education can play a pivotal role in how \r\nclimate change is perceived and experienced, and marine biodiversity \r\nand ecosystems play an important role in this. At the same time, \r\nclimate change impacts on marine ecosystems (Sections 5.2.3, 5.2.4) \r\ncan affect the role of the ocean in supporting such public education \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement, medium confidence)."


id: e77c7796989184da98e730b3269a33a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38029
content:
"Other cultural values supported by the ocean are diverse. They \r\ninclude education, based on knowledge of marine environments. \r\nSuch education can increase knowledge and awareness of climate \r\nchange impacts and the efficacy of their mitigation (Meadows, 2011); \r\nit can also influence the extent to which stewardship activities are \r\nadopted (von Heland et al. 2014; Wynveen and Sutton, 2015; Bennett \r\net al. 2018), and can help develop new networks between coastal \r\npeople and environmental managers for the purposes of planning \r\nand implementing new adaptation strategies (Wynveen and Sutton, \r\n2015). A critical element in reducing vulnerability to climate change \r\nis to educate people that they are an integral part of the Earth \r\nsystem and have a huge influence on the balance of the system. "


id: 7ed2c57f2c606438bed6a248b457813f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19468
content:
"21st  century increase the risk of potential conflicts among fishery \r\narea users and authorities or between two different communities \r\nwithin the same country (Ndhlovu et al. 2017; Shaffril et al. 2017; \r\nSpijkers and Boonstra, 2017) (medium confidence), exacerbated \r\nthrough competing resource exploitation from international actors \r\nand mal-adapted policies (low confidence). Such risks can be reduced \r\nby appropriate fisheries governance responses that are discussed in \r\nSections 5.5.2 and 5.5.3."


id: 3fc992dadf067667ded4b9464ea44f8f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8417
content:
"impacts can affect their well-being, although the sensitivity to such \r\nimpacts can vary among stakeholder groups (Marshall et al. 2019) \r\n(low confidence)."


id: b87a0652867b57f5c89ea5164f0b9183
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29667
content:
"abundance by incorporating different management systems (Haynie \r\nand Pfeiffer, 2012; Galbraith et al. 2017). However, the impacts of \r\nclimate change on management effectiveness and trade practices is \r\nstill inadequately understood (Galbraith et al. 2017). "


id: cebf2f73d49bb08ae5e245f6208186c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33714
content:
"Climate change may also worsen by non-climate related \r\nsocioeconomic shocks and stresses, and hence is an obstacle to \r\neconomic developments (Hallegatte et al. 2015). Climate risk on the \r\neconomics of fishing is projected to be higher for tropical developing \r\ncountries where existing adaptive capacity to the risk is lower, \r\nthereby challenging their sustainable economic development (high \r\nconfidence). However, observed impacts are not yet well documented \r\n(Lacoue-Labarthe et  al. 2016), and there are many uncertainties \r\nrelating to how climate change would affect the dynamics of fishing \r\ncosts, with consequent adjustment of fishing effort that might \r\nintensify or lessen the overcapacity issue. Studies have attempted to \r\nproject how fishers may respond to changes in fish distribution and "


id: 58ed39bf49a79a84e90afcaabc50ba08
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 12887
content:
"Many coastal tourism destinations are exposed to risks of flooding, \r\nSLR and coastal squeeze on coastal ecosystems (Lithgow et al. 2019) \r\n(Section 5.3); there are also other climate related-risks. Droughts, \r\nwhich are projected to be more frequent, will also impact the tourism \r\nindustry (and local food security) through water and food shortages \r\n(Pearce et al. 2018). If climate change and ocean acidification reduce \r\nthe seafood supply, the attractiveness of coastal regions for tourists \r\nwill also decrease (Wabnitz et  al. 2017). North Atlantic hurricanes \r\nand tropical storms have increased in intensity over the last 30 years, "


id: 478d79b0944a3447a6ea3bb22e24dfc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9804
content:
"American studies have shown that informed coastal property owners \r\nare willing to initially invest in infrastructure to counter climate \r\nchange impacts (McNamara and Keeler, 2013); however, they would \r\navoid further investment if adaptation costs increase substantially \r\nand there are greater risks of long-term impacts (Putra et al. 2015)."


id: 7ead80cbad5ca783ec93647d6a15b13
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19444
content:
"with climate projections indicating an increasing trend in hurricane \r\nintensity (Chapter 6). Three major Caribbean storms, Harvey, Irma \r\nand Maria, occurred in 2017, with loss and damage to the tourism \r\nindustries of Dominica, the British Virgin Islands, and Antigua and \r\nBarbuda estimated at 2.2 billion USD, and environmental recovery \r\ncosts estimated at 6.8 million USD (UNDP, 2017). Pacific tourist \r\ndestinations, which tend to focus on nature-based and marine \r\nactivities, are also at high risk of extreme events and other climate \r\nchange impacts (Klint et  al. 2015). However, global tourism has \r\na  high carbon footprint (flights, cruises, etc.) (Lenzen et  al. 2018), \r\nso any reduction in the intensity of this sector would help mitigate \r\nclimate change. "


id: 2662d811ebaa057adf71f9382ef13af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3923
content:
"The impacts of changing marine ecosystems and ecosystem services \r\non the value of human assets need to consider the risk perception, \r\nfuture development and adaptation responses of human communities \r\n(Section 5.5.2, Chapter 4) (Bunten and Kahn, 2014). For example, the \r\npotential for climate impacts on the value of coastal real estate will \r\ndepend on the changing insurance market or the cost of adaptation \r\nmeasures, which in turn depend on the willingness to pay by asset \r\nholders and wider society, including local and national governments. \r\nFurther research is needed to discount valuations for potential losses \r\nthat may occur in the future but with uncertain occurrence, and to \r\nimprove real estate loss estimates over local to regional scales. "


id: b45dcb1690680c70100c02b408120f03
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 28970
content:
"Evidence from recent studies on projected climate risks on recreational \r\nfishing is equivocal, with the direction of impacts depending on \r\nthe location, species targeted and societal context. For example: \r\npoleward range shifts of marine fish (Section 5.2.3) could yield new \r\nopportunities for recreational fishing in mid- to high-latitude regions \r\n(DiSegni and Shechter, 2013); projected increases in air temperature \r\nmay enable longer fishing days in some area (Dundas and von \r\nHaefen, 2015); and extreme events may alter the composition of \r\nrecreational fishing catches (Santos et al. 2016). Since climate risks \r\nto recreational fishing vary largely depending on the responses of the \r\ntargeted species to climate-related pressures, there is low confidence\r\nin the overall risk to the activity. "


id: 4d78cc0b13fe13b64291adb992b32a99
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 10908
content:
"Marine ecosystem services contribute to climate moderation and \r\ncoastal defenses (Section 5.4.1.2). However, while the above studies \r\nin this section acknowledge the contribution of many climate \r\nimpacts on real estate and infrastructure through ecosystem losses \r\nand degradation, often they are not accounted for in quantitative \r\neconomic impact assessments. Overall, there is high confidence\r\nthat SLR, increases in storm intensity and other extreme events \r\nwill impact the values of coastal real estates and infrastructure, \r\nparticularly in tropical SIDS, through the risk and impacts of direct \r\nphysical damages. However, there is low confidence that impacts due \r\nto underlying loss and damage of ecosystems and their services are \r\nbeing similarly accounted for."


id: c49143af73d4e14b499bfb8d9218a465
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31893
content:
"Overall, evidence since AR5 and SR15 confirms that climate impacts \r\nto coastal ecosystems would increase risks to coastal tourism, \r\nparticularly under high emission scenarios (medium confidence). \r\nEconomic impacts will be greatest for those developing countries \r\nwhere tourism is the main source of foreign revenue (medium to\r\nhigh evidence)."


id: 53887b21a3b2b3affa320cb8a8142c95
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11970
content:
"The 'ocean economy' refers to the sustainable use of ocean resources \r\nfor economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, and ocean \r\necosystem health (World Bank, 2017). In SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg \r\net al. 2018) and elsewhere here (Chapters 3 and 5), the risks and \r\nopportunities of specific sectors that contribute to the ocean economy \r\nunder climate change are assessed. The fishing industry is particularly \r\nimportant in this context. As previously noted, warming has already \r\ndirectly impacted coastal and open ocean fishing activities in some \r\nregions (Section 5.4.1.1, 5.4.2.3.1); the risk of fishery impacts is \r\nexacerbated by the observed climate-driven changes to coral reefs \r\nand other coastal ecosystems that contribute to the productivity \r\nof exploited fish species (Section 5.4.1.3, 5.4.2.3.1); and there are \r\nchallenges to sustainable management of transboundary fisheries \r\nresources caused by species' range shifts and associated governance \r\nchallenges (Section 5.4.2.2.2)."


id: ef570c9eec35e57c1b013cd879aff685
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39476
content:
"Fisheries-related national and local economies of many tropical \r\ndeveloping countries are exposed high climate risks (Section 5.4.2.3.1) \r\n(Blasiak et  al. 2017), as a result of the projected large decrease \r\nin maximum catch and revenue potential under RCP8.5 in the \r\n21st century (Section 5.4.1.1). Historical examples from fishery over\u0002exploitation indicate that a large decrease in catches for specific fish \r\nstocks have had substantial negative effects for dependent economies \r\nand communities (Brierley and  Kingsford,  2009; Davis,  2015). "


id: e0f60491f4bcc9e6c31e8a6a5ffb84b2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36844
content:
"2010; Jaroszweski et  al. 2010; O Rourke et  al. 2010; Hooper and \r\nAusten, 2013; Kempener and Neumann, 2014b; Kempener and \r\nNeumann, 2014a; Abanades et al. 2015; Astariz et al. 2015; Borthwick, \r\n2016; Foteinis and Tsoutsos, 2017; Manasseh et al. 2017; Becker et al. \r\n2018; Gattuso et al. 2018; Hemer et al. 2018; Dinh and McKeogh, \r\n2019b; Dinh and McKeogh, 2019a). Other potential sources of \r\nmarine renewable energy include algal biofuels (Greene et al. 2010; \r\nGreene et al. 2016). While such approaches offers a way to mitigate \r\nclimate change, changes in climatic conditions (such as waves and \r\nwinds) may impact marine renewable energy installations and their \r\neffectiveness (Harrison and Wallace, 2005). A more comprehensive \r\nassessment of these issues is expected to be provided by IPCC WGIII \r\nin the AR6 full report. "


id: f0d2d19ee25d19b409259bfc742a9ac3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39732
content:
"Moreover,  coastal economies that are dependent on marine \r\ntourism and recreational activities are also exposed to elevated \r\nrisks from impacts on biota that are important for these sectors \r\n(Section  5.4.2.3.2). Nevertheless, new opportunities for coastal \r\ntourism may occur in future for some regions as a result of species' \r\nbiogeographic shifts (Section 5.4.2.3.2) and increased accessibility, \r\nsuch as in the Arctic (Chapter 3). "


id: 294599a8df9bf2774a4af0832694f5a4
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4480
content:
"Decrease in sea ice in the Arctic is opening up economic opportunities \r\nfor the oil and gas exploration, mining industries and shipping that \r\nare currently important economic sectors in the ocean (Pelletier and \r\nGuy, 2012; George, 2013) (Section 3.4.3; 3.5.3). Although the Arctic \r\nregion has oil and gas reserves estimated to account for one-tenth of \r\nworld oil and a quarter of global gas (U.S. Geological Survey released \r\non 24 July 2008), offshore oil and gas exploration with poor regulation \r\nor as a result of accidents poses additional risk of impacts on species, \r\npopulations, assemblages, to ecosystems by modifying a variety of \r\necological parameters (e.g.,  biodiversity, biomass, and productivity) \r\n(Cordes et al. 2016) threatening the sensitive Arctic ecosystems and \r\nthe livelihood of dependent communities (Section 3.5.3.3). "


id: dd101996394d23fca883c7373d48d4f1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36157
content:
"Overall, some major existing ocean economy sectors such as fishing, \r\ncoastal tourism and recreation are already at risk by climate change \r\n(medium confidence), and all sectors are expected to have elevated \r\nrisks with high future emission scenarios (high confidence). The \r\nemerging demand for alternative energy sources is expected to \r\ngenerate economic opportunities for the ocean renewable energy \r\nsection (high confidence), although their potential may also be \r\naffected by climate change (low confidence)."


id: 60f4d6cd8e63c41512f1b40274aa38d2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14350
content:
"Climate change impacts will have consequences for the ability of \r\nhuman society to achieve sustainable development. SR15 concludes \r\nthat \"Limiting global warming to 1.5oC rather than 2oC would \r\nmake it markedly easier to achieve many aspects of sustainable \r\ndevelopment, with greater potential to eradicate poverty and reduce \r\ninequalities (medium evidence, high agreement)\". This assessment \r\nfocuses on how climate change impacts on marine ecosystems would \r\nchallenge sustainable development, using the United Nations SDGs \r\nas a framework to discuss the linkages between those issues. "


id: 700db7f5b9caa4c3917e89695b5e0bed
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16969
content:
"Climate impacts on marine ecosystems affect their ability to provide \r\nseafood and raw materials, and to support biodiversity, habitats \r\nand other regulating processes (Section 5.4.1), and these impacts \r\non the ocean affect people directly and indirectly (Sections 5.4.2.1, \r\n5.4.2.2, 5.4.2.3). SDG 14 is the goal that is most directly relevant: \r\n\"Life below water: including indicators for marine pollution, habitat \r\nrestoration and protected areas, ocean acidification, fisheries, and \r\ncoastal development.\" "


id: ce77b41c732cabd662b4a6786e6b0ec1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33669
content:
"Existing governance may not be sufficient to limit the elevated \r\nrisk on Arctic ecosystems and their dependent economies from \r\nincreased shipping activities (Section 3.4.3, 3.5.3). Climate change \r\nmay bring new economic opportunities, particularly for polar oil \r\nand gas development (medium confidence), shipping (medium \r\nconfidence) and tourism (low confidence) although realisation of \r\nthese opportunities will pose uncertain ecological risks to sensitive \r\necosystems and biota, and the dependent human communities in the \r\nregion (high confidence). "


id: e28524d5aad1d3d7fb8e53016aaed7ad
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37151
content:
"Climate impacts in the ocean to other SDGs are mediated through \r\nsocial and economic factors when the SDG targets are affected (Singh \r\net  al. 2019). For example, climate impacts on marine ecosystem \r\nservices related to primary industries that provide food, income and \r\nlivelihood to people have direct implications for a range of SDGs. These \r\nSDGs include 'no poverty' (SDG 1), 'zero hunger' (SDG 2), 'decent work \r\nand economic growth' (SDG 8), 'reduced inequalities' (SDG 10) and \r\n'responsible consumption and production' (SGD 12) (Singh et al. 2019, \r\nFigure 5.22). These impacts relate to changing ocean under climate \r\nchange that affect the pathways to build sustainable economies and \r\neliminate poverty (Sections 5.4.2.4), eliminate hunger and achieve food \r\nsecurity (Section 5.4.2.1.3), reduce inequalities (Sections 5.4.2.2) and "


id: 60fbcfd22f0a7f46567e1c09c8080e07
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14357
content:
"Ocean renewable energy provides an emerging alternative to fossil \r\nfuels and comprises energy extraction from offshore winds, tides, \r\nwaves, ocean thermal gradients, currents and salinity gradients \r\n(Harrison and Wallace, 2005; Koetse and Rietveld, 2009; Bae et al. "


id: 9e133074d0797ed2cf5a3c408b330dda
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25046
content:
"achieving the goal for good health and well-being (SDG 3) (Pearse, \r\n2017; Wouters et al. 2017). Women are often engaged in jobs and \r\nlivelihood sources that are more exposed to climate change impacts \r\nfrom the ocean such as impacts on fisheries (Section 5.4.2.3.1) and \r\nimpacts of SLR on coastal regions (Chapter 4). For example, in Senegal, "


id: a9d008636216ec5eb6cf84f5003326c1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27099
content:
"achieve responsible consumption and production (Sections 5.4.2.3.1) \r\n(Carvalho et al. 2017; Castells-Quintana et al. 2017). Climate change \r\nis also creating living conditions in coastal areas that are less suitable \r\nto human settlement and changing distributions of marine disease \r\nvectors (Section 5.4.2.1.1, 5.4.2.3.3), reducing our chances of "


id: cf19e7eeb9138e2ac80822cbbd5ae05a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33785
content:
"release of greenhouse gases from different marine environments, \r\ninteracting with natural biological, physical and chemical processes. \r\nWhilst CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas, marine fluxes of \r\nmethane and nitrous oxide can also be important, for both coastal \r\nregions and the open ocean (Arevalo-Martinez et al. 2015; Borges \r\net al. 2016; Hamdan and Wickland, 2016)."


id: 9ee41cd8998e98423b117becca10aefa
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25180
content:
"The term 'blue carbon' was originally used to cover biological carbon \r\nin all marine ecosystems (Nellemann et  al. 2009). Subsequent \r\nuse of the term has focused on carbon-accumulating coastal \r\nhabitats structured by rooted plants, such as mangroves, tidal salt \r\nmarshes and seagrass meadows, that are relatively amenable to \r\nmanagement (McLeod et  al. 2011; Pendleton et  al. 2012; Thomas, \r\n2014; Macreadie et al. 2017a; Alongi, 2018; Windham-Myers et al. \r\n2019; Lovelock and Duarte, 2019). Comparisons across the full range \r\nof freshwater and saline wetland types are assisted by standardised \r\napproaches (Nahlik and Fennessy, 2016; Vazquez-Gonzalez et  al. \r\n2017). Seaweeds (macroalgae) can also be considered as coastal \r\nblue carbon (Krause-Jensen and Duarte, 2016; Krause-Jensen et al. \r\n2018; Raven, 2018), however, because of differences in their carbon \r\nprocessing, their climate mitigation potential is assessed separately \r\nwithin Section 5.5.1.2 below."


id: 17496316fe1fb17bc53dd3f45b54d1cc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1318
content:
"Overall, climate change impacts on the ocean will negatively affect \r\nthe chance of achieving the SDGs and sustaining their benefits \r\n(medium confidence). "


id: 3a7de7050104c50d60baf024dfc51286
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7491
content:
"Gattuso et  al. (2018) provide an overview assessment of the \r\nenvironmental, technical and societal feasibilities of using a range \r\nof ocean management actions to reduce climate change and its \r\nimpacts. Their results for nine actions based on natural processes are \r\nsummarised in Figure 5.23, also including marine renewable energy \r\n(wind, wave and tidal) for comparison. Eight semi-quantitative criteria \r\nwere used to assess each action: maximum potential effectiveness by \r\n2100 in reducing climatic drivers (ocean warming, ocean acidification \r\nand SLR), assuming full theoretical implementation; technological \r\nreadiness and lead time to full potential effectiveness (subsequently \r\ncombined as technical feasibility); duration of benefits; co-benefits; \r\ntrade-offs (originally described as dis-benefits); cost-effectiveness; \r\nand governability (capability of implementation, and management "


id: 62682ca85dd7d036291d17f2479a7a9d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 14595
content:
"These mitigation approaches match those proposed using terrestrial \r\nnatural processes (Griscom et al. 2017), with extensive afforestation \r\nand reforestation included in all climate models that limit future \r\nwarming to 1.5oC (de Coninck et al. 2018). As on land, reliable carbon \r\naccounting is a critical consideration (Grassi et al. 2017), together with \r\nconfidence in the longterm security of carbon storage. The feasibility \r\nof climatically-significant (and societally acceptable) mitigation using \r\nmarine natural processes therefore depends on a robust quantitative \r\nunderstanding of how human actions can affect the uptake and "


id: 39bbca098d2c91f97f21e13cf15f127d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 7370
content:
"of any associated conflicts). Here, governability is considered as \r\na  constraint (governability challenges) reversing the scoring scale \r\nused by Gattuso et al. (2018)."


id: 81831eb87956f6fcb9f11a0c38832ec3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19911
content:
"150 countries contain at least one of these ecosystems; 71 countries \r\ncontain all three (Herr and Landis, 2016), and 74 countries mention \r\nsuch coastal wetlands (five specifically as blue carbon) in their \r\nNationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement \r\n(Martin et al. 2016a; Gallo et al. 2017)."


id: f1a5e6411825ef682749b8d8997faa75
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39897
content:
"Global measures (circles in Figure 5.23) can be regarded as mitigation, \r\nreducing drivers; local measures (rectangles), are primarily ecosystem\u0002based adaptation (EbA), reducing impacts (Section 5.5.2), although \r\nthey may also contribute to mitigation; two actions were considered \r\nat both scales. Gattuso et al. (2018) did not consider the effects of \r\nactions on ocean oxygenation, notwithstanding the importance of \r\ndeoxygenation as a component of climate change. Additional detail \r\nis given in SM5.4."


id: ec2052e045cf454fc299bc1a3c241a3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38910
content:
"Estuaries, shelf seas and a wide range of other intertidal and \r\nshallow-water habitats (Section 5.3) play an important role in the \r\nglobal carbon cycle through their primary production by rooted \r\nplants, seaweeds (macroalgae) and phytoplankton, and also by \r\nprocessing riverine organic carbon. However, the natural carbon \r\ndynamics of these systems have been greatly changed by human \r\nactivities (Regnier et al. 2013; Cloern et al. 2016; Day and Rybczyk, \r\n2019) (high confidence). Direct anthropogenic impacts include \r\ncoastal land-use change (Ramesh et al. 2015; Li et al. 2018a); indirect \r\neffects include increased nutrient delivery and other changes in \r\nriver catchments (Jiao et al. 2011; Regnier et al. 2013), and marine \r\nresource exploitation in shelf seas (Bauer et al. 2013). There is high \r\nconfidence that these human-driven changes will continue, reflecting \r\ncoastal settlement trends and global population growth (Barragan \r\nand de Andres, 2015). "


id: 487dc6d3ccb853778b834ead94ede8a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9965
content:
"Policy recognition of the mitigation benefits of coastal ecosystems \r\nrequires quantitative information on their actual and potential \r\ncarbon uptake and storage at the local and national scale, within an \r\ninternational framework for carbon accounting (Crooks et al. 2011; \r\nHejnowicz et al. 2015). Such methods are being developed for coastal \r\nhabitats structured by rooted plants (Needelman et al. 2018; Troxler \r\net  al. 2018; Needelman et  al. 2019), considered here as 'coastal \r\nvegetation', linked to protocols for verification of longterm carbon \r\nremoval and financial incentives (Crooks et al. 2011; Hejnowicz et al. \r\n2015) and building on techniques used for managing terrestrial \r\ncarbon sinks (Ahmed and Glaser, 2016b; Aziz et al. 2016). Proposals \r\nto apply carbon accounting to seaweeds, the water column and shelf \r\nsea sediments (Krause-Jensen and Duarte, 2016; Zhang et al. 2017) \r\nare less well-developed. "


id: c5edfc4fc2c984c951e3a584abc4639e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32130
content:
"Mitigation through emission reduction can therefore be achieved by \r\nhabitat protection, to greatly reduce or end the human-driven loss \r\nof mangrove, salt marsh and seagrass ecosystems. Such action could \r\npotentially produce nationally-significant mitigation (>1% of fossil \r\nfuel emissions) for several countries (Taillardat et al. 2018). However, \r\nthere are still many uncertainties in quantifying carbon release due \r\nto habitat degradation and loss (Lovelock et al. 2017), and hence in \r\ndetermining emission reductions. Furthermore, this mitigation option \r\nis not available to those countries where habitat loss is not currently \r\noccurring, for example, in Bangladesh (Taillardat et al. 2018). Since \r\nlegal structures already exist in many countries to protect coastal \r\nwetlands, the main policy need may be the enforcement of national \r\nregulation and site-specific MPAs (Miteva et  al. 2015; Herr et  al. \r\n2017; Howard et al. 2017)."


id: 65845835c59f4cd28c48fdf94d9a8461
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15128
content:
"Mangrove, salt marsh and seagrass habitats are widely recognised \r\nas blue carbon ecosystems with mitigation potential (Chmura et al. \r\n2003; Duarte et al. 2005; Kennedy et al. 2010; McLeod et al. 2011). \r\nAlthough covering only ~0.1% of the Earth's surface, these three \r\necosystems together have been estimated to support 1-10% of \r\nglobal marine primary production (Duarte et  al. 2017). More than "


id: c9278b5f1502aa72574e4291fafef7f8
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32714
content:
"Around 90 restoration and rehabilitation projects for mangroves \r\nhave been documented (Lopez-Portillo et al. 2017), with associated \r\ndevelopment of a range of restoration evaluation methods (Zhao \r\net  al. 2016a). Salt marsh restoration is reviewed by Adam (2019) \r\nand seagrass restoration by van Katwijk et  al. (2016). Consistent \r\nconclusions, supported by other studies (Bayraktarov et al. 2016; Wylie \r\net  al. 2016) are that: natural regeneration increases the likelihood \r\nof longterm survival; higher success rates are achieved with strong \r\nstakeholder engagement; and it is critical that the (human) factors \r\ncausing original loss and degradation have been properly addressed \r\n(high confidence)."


id: 6f908cc20a25549454f3a87c2a11c964
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 16892
content:
"In summary, a combination of both conservation and restoration \r\nof mangrove, salt marsh and seagrass habitats can contribute to \r\nnational mitigation effort for those countries with relatively large \r\ncoastlines where such ecosystems naturally occur (Murdiyarso \r\net  al. 2015; Atwood et  al. 2017). However, the associated current \r\nuncertainties in quantifying relevant carbon storage and flows are \r\nexpected to be problematic for reliable measurement, reporting and \r\nverification (high confidence)."


id: a50f2eda900e344a075065249c72fa1f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26266
content:
"Restoration costs could also be an important constraint for large-scale \r\napplication. Based on published data from 246 observations, \r\nBayraktarov et al. (2016) estimated median total costs for restoration \r\nof one hectare of mangrove, salt marsh and seagrass habitat to be \r\n~2,508, 151,129 and 383,672 respectively, in 2010 USD. For each \r\necosystem, there was high variability in costs according to the economy \r\nof the country where the restoration projects were carried out, and the \r\nrestoration technique applied. Assessment of coastal conservation and \r\nrestoration costs is also given in Section 4.4.2.3, in Box 5.5 (in the \r\ncontext of coral reef restoration costs) and Section 5.5.2.5. "


id: d0129cfa68f6fbd00cea40d6f41b0766
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 33962
content:
"Measures to protect and restore coastal blue carbon habitats provide \r\nmany other societal benefits in addition to climate regulation \r\n(Section  5.4.1). In particular, there is high confidence that coastal "


id: d9883ea43e0a9bcc2de7c0b882997d97
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35570
content:
"wetlands benefit local fisheries, enhance biodiversity, give storm \r\nprotection, reduce coastal erosion, improve water quality and support \r\nlocal livelihoods (Costanza et al. 2008; Spalding et al. 2014). Coastal \r\necosystems may keep pace with sufficiently gradual SLR, and may \r\nbe more cost-effective in flood protection than hard infrastructure \r\nlike seawalls (Temmerman et  al. 2013; Moller, 2019). Coastal blue \r\ncarbon can therefore be considered as a 'no regrets' mitigation \r\noption at the national level in many countries, in addition to (not \r\na replacement for) more effective mitigation measures. Additional \r\nresearch is needed over the full range of environmental conditions \r\nto improve knowledge and understanding of the complex carbon \r\ndynamics of coastal vegetation and associated systems, to enable \r\nwell-quantified and cost-effective carbon sequestration enhancement \r\n(Vazquez-Gonzalez et al. 2017; Windham-Myers et al. 2019)."


id: 22a151733397d6b32ae8ff6e32aa049
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:29
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3309
content:
"Seaweeds do not directly transfer carbon to marine sediments, unlike \r\nthe rooted coastal vegetation considered above (Howard et al. 2017). \r\nNevertheless, seaweed detritus can deliver carbon to sedimentary \r\nsites (Hill et al. 2015) and may provide a source of refractory dissolved \r\norganic (Krause-Jensen and Duarte, 2016). Recent studies indicate \r\nthat globally important amounts of carbon may be involved in these \r\nprocesses (Krause-Jensen and Duarte, 2016; Krause-Jensen et  al. \r\n2018; Smale et al. 2018). There is, however, currently low confidence\r\nthat enhancement of natural seaweed production can provide \r\na significant mitigation response, due to large uncertainties relating \r\nto sequestration duration and effectiveness. Such considerations \r\nrelate to transport pathways, the fate of material transported to \r\ndeeper water, and the timescales of its subsequent return to the \r\natmosphere over decadal to century timescales. "


id: 8565079a13d9eb95641f51dcaf953ef9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 20606
content:
"5.5.1.2.5 Control of sediment disturbance, enhanced weathering \r\nand other geochemical approaches "


id: 4fca84686912209bf3ebcd9eed1bf1ef
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11331
content:
"Anthropogenic sediment disturbance, through fishing, dredging and \r\nthe installation of offshore structures, affects the security of carbon \r\nstorage in shelf sea sediments (Hale et  al. 2017). Management of \r\nsuch activities might therefore increase carbon retention, over \r\nrelatively large areas of shelf seas (Avelar et al. 2017; Luisetti et al. \r\n2019). However, there is a lack of data and understanding of the \r\ncomplex processes that affect carbon storage in the potentially \r\nmobile fraction of marine sediments (van de Velde et  al. 2018); \r\nexceptions are provided by Hu et al. (2016) and Diesing et al. (2017). \r\nDue to these uncertainties, there is currently low confidence that \r\ncontrol of sediment disturbance can be used for climate mitigation."


id: 1edd099bc291856357f94c0943ee3932
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2633
content:
"Seaweed aquaculture is inherently more manageable as a mitigation \r\nresponse (N'Yeurt et al. 2012; Chung et al. 2013; Chung et al. 2017; \r\nDuarte et al. 2017). If linked to biofuel or biogas production (N'Yeurt \r\nand Iese, 2014; Moreira and Pires, 2016; Sondak et al. 2017), there \r\nwould be potential to reduce emissions (as an alternative to fossil \r\nfuels); if also linked to carbon capture and storage (Hughes et  al. \r\n2012), it may be possible to achieve negative emissions (net CO2\r\nremoval from the atmosphere). Full life cycle analyses are needed \r\nto assess the energy efficiency of such approaches, and the viability \r\nof scaling them up to climatically-important levels, taking account \r\nof associated environmental and socioeconomic implications."


id: 7ede89c4ff66a0fb71c2912e6d556281
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19477
content:
"There is theoretically greater potential for carbon removal by \r\n'enhanced weathering' using mineral additions to coastal waters \r\n(and the open ocean) (Rau, 2011; Renforth and Henderson, 2017). \r\nThese approaches are based on increasing the naturally-occurring \r\nuptake of CO2 by carbonates (e.g., calcite and dolomite) or silicate \r\nminerals (such as olivine). Such rock-weathering currently sequesters \r\n~0.25 GtC yr-1, on land and at sea (Taylor et al. 2015) and provides \r\nthe longterm control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It could be \r\nenhanced by adding ground minerals to beaches (Montserrat et al. \r\n2017) or the sea surface. Other geochemical approaches for adding \r\nalkalinity that are less directly based on natural processes (Rau et al. \r\n2012; GESAMP, 2019) are not considered here."


id: 50e9a9f5cf35d05406dda4391c6e0fb3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 11509
content:
"A different mitigation option using seaweeds relates to their use as \r\na dietary supplement for ruminants to suppress methane production. \r\nIn vitro studies have given promising results (Dubois et  al. 2013; \r\nMachado et al. 2016; Machado et al. 2018). However, because the \r\npotential scale of real-world benefits have yet to be quantified, there \r\nis low confidence in this approach as a mitigation option. "


id: fc5304547a55e411cd5e002cb85e99ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41759
content:
"Enhanced weathering methods might be used to reduce local \r\nimpacts, for example, for coral reefs (Albright et al. 2016b; Feng et al. \r\n2016), as well as contributing to wider mitigation of climate change. \r\nHowever, their climatic benefits would be difficult to quantify, with \r\nother constraints on their development and deployment relating \r\nto the governance, cost and uncertain environmental impacts of \r\nlarge-scale application (Gattuso et  al. 2018). The combination of \r\nthese factors results in low confidence that enhanced weathering can \r\nprovide a viable and acceptable climate mitigation approach."


id: 3deac5548072903e7c9d57f9ab5a6e31
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8062
content:
"Land-based nutrient management could, in theory, be used to enhance \r\ncarbon storage in coastal seas and deeper waters, by increasing the \r\namount of refractory dissolved organic carbon (Jiao et al. 2011; Jiao \r\net al. 2014b; Jiao et al. 2018b). This idea is supported by a statistical "


id: ec030f02bee8e06f527b396f5bc1996d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38889
content:
"disruption of regional weather patterns and long-term warming \r\nrather than cooling, if enhanced upwelling is deployed at large scale \r\n(Kwiatkowski et al. 2015)."


id: 8175d8919b10b0566673c1126ed1933a
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 19904
content:
"Recent reviews of the scope for using natural processes in the open \r\nocean for climate mitigation are provided by Keller (2019a) and \r\nGESAMP (2019). The summary assessment given here is limited to \r\ndirect and indirect biologically-based approaches, consistent with \r\nthe scoping of this report and the major governance constraints on \r\nthe large-scale application of open ocean interventions. "


id: 929af87b65a8ab5a7f1074632793d0c6
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 23015
content:
"Because of the many technical, environmental and governance \r\nissues relating to marine productivity enhancement, by either direct \r\nfertilisation or upwelling, there is low confidence that such open \r\nocean manipulations provide a viable mitigation measure."


id: 8d88caf23a51df93f37a795d8230175f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 22088
content:
"Current NPP by marine phytoplankton is estimated to be \r\n58 +- 7 GtC yr-1 (Legendre et al. 2015), similar to terrestrial primary \r\nproduction and around 6 times greater than anthropogenic emissions \r\n(Le Quere et  al. (2016). However, over 99% of the biologically\u0002fixed carbon returns to the atmosphere over a range of timescales \r\n(Cartapanis et al. 2018)."


id: 2a954632e04bba7e374fe318021d60af
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 4722
content:
"The AR5 concluded, with high agreement but limited evidence, \r\nthat climate change impacts on coastal human settlements and \r\ncommunities could be reduced through coastal adaptation activities \r\n(Wong et  al. 2014a). The limited evidence of the context-specific \r\napplication of adaptation principles to support the assessment was \r\nhighlighted as a knowledge gap for future research. This assessment \r\nreports progress made with developing such evidence and assesses \r\nhuman adaptation response to climate change in ecosystems, coastal \r\ncommunities and marine environments. "


id: 59da040d730cb74451b09a553f1eadcc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13051
content:
"The direct method of increasing marine productivity involves adding \r\nland-derived nutrients that may currently limit primary production, \r\nparticularly iron. This approach has been investigated experimentally, \r\nby modelling and by observations of natural system behaviour \r\n(Keller et  al. 2014a; Bowie et  al. 2015; Tagliabue et  al. 2017). The \r\n13 experimental studies to date (seven in the Southern Ocean, five \r\nin the Pacific, and one in the sub-tropical Atlantic) have shown \r\nthat primary production can be, but is not always, enhanced by the \r\naddition of iron (Boyd et al. 2007; Yoon et al. 2016; GESAMP, 2019). "


id: a64e209db3411f0c57363c9e25ee9926
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26478
content:
"Components of human adaptation responses include risk assessment, \r\nrisk reduction, and pathways towards resilience (Cross-Chapter Box 2; \r\nChapter 1.6). Residual risk remains where hazard, vulnerability and \r\nexposure intersect, subsequent to an adaptation pathway response. \r\nHere we focus on adaptation responses within ecosystems and in \r\nhuman systems, as framed in Chapter 1, and defined by: "


id: c830587bf63bb36c036e361ce2915b09
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 32531
content:
"The difficulties arise in demonstrating the time-scale of additional \r\ncarbon removal, and in obtaining information on the consequences \r\nof the fertilisation for other marine ecosystem components, including \r\nocean acidification and other potential side-effects (Williamson and \r\nTurley, 2012). Modelling studies (Aumont and Bopp, 2006) indicate \r\nthat the climatic benefits could be relatively short-lived. Furthermore, \r\npublic and political acceptability for ocean fertilisation is low \r\n(Williamson et  al. 2012; Boyd and Bressac, 2016; Williamson and \r\nBodle, 2016; Fuentes-George, 2017; McGee et al. 2018). Ocean iron \r\nfertilisation is regulated by the London Protocol, with amendments \r\nprohibiting such action unless constituting legitimate scientific \r\nresearch authorised under permit (see Section 5.5.4.1). There are \r\nadditional governance constraints for the Southern Ocean where \r\nocean iron fertilisation is theoretically considered to be most effective \r\n(Robinson et al. 2014)."


id: f09c3cdc034b70a0c56cb83d072da604
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39706
content:
"Open ocean fertilisation by macro-nutrients (e.g.,  nitrate) has \r\nalso been proposed, with modelled potential for gigaton-scale \r\ncarbon removal (Harrison, 2017). Similar technical and governance \r\nconsiderations apply with regard to the quantification of mitigation \r\nbenefits, the monitoring of potential adverse impacts, and the \r\npolitical acceptability of large-scale deployment. This approach would \r\nalso involve higher costs, because of the much greater quantities of \r\nnutrients required (Williamson and Turley, 2012)."


id: 728605072476556217f0bd5d2f0b6b67
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17390
content:
"To avoid duplication, detailed consideration of adaptation responses \r\nto SLR and extreme events (including heat waves, and compound and \r\ncascading events) are avoided here, as they are covered by Chapter 4 \r\nand Chapter 6, respectively. Tables 5.7 and 5.8 provide a summary \r\nassessment of climate change impacts, human adaptation response \r\nand benefits in ecosystems and human systems respectively. Details \r\nof the assessed literature are in SM Table 5.7. Climate drivers and "


id: 67082fd7a6ccaf257d979f0bcf144aeb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15393
content:
"The indirect method of enhancing marine productivity uses physical \r\ndevices to increase upwelling, thereby increasing the supply of \r\na wide range of naturally-occurring nutrients from deeper water. \r\nThis technique risks releasing additional CO2 to the atmosphere, \r\nreducing its potential for climate mitigation (Bauman et al. 2014). \r\nThere may also be other undesirable climatic consequences, including "


id: e035e8157e7487c23efdb8e12be3f29c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36697
content:
"Table 5.7 | Summary of reported Adaptation responses (A), the Impacts (I) they aimed to address, and the expected Benefits (B) in coastal ecosystems within Physical, \r\nEcological, Social, Governance, Economic and Knowledge categories. For further details of impacts on ecosystems see Section 5.3. Legend: a + sign indicates robust \r\nevidence, a triangle indicates medium evidence and an underline indicates limited evidence. Dark blue cells indicate high agreement, blue indicates medium agreement \r\nand light blue indicates either low agreement (denoted by presence of a sign) if sufficient papers were reviewed for an assessment or no assessment (if less than three \r\npapers were assessed per cell). The papers used for this assessment can be found in SM5.5."


id: db3ee5a32ad72d17db99d88ee38a54ec
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35845
content:
"('passive' restoration) or adaptive ('active' restoration) (Miller and \r\nRuss, 2014; Linden and Rinkevich, 2017) (see Box 5.5). "


id: bbc494b058a6d138dcba5736d3a6d164
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30265
content:
"This section assesses adaptation response in coastal ecosystems, \r\nbeginning with biological adaptation in species, and followed by \r\na summary assessment of EbA as a response to climate change. "


id: 2079bb297369ce1eaf9c533d88b8a699
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2933
content:
"There are many studies on biological climate change adaptation \r\nresponses (Crozier and Hutchings, 2014; Miller et al. 2017; Diamond, \r\n2018). Sections 5.2.3 and 5.3.3 discuss three main types of biological \r\nadaptation, broadly defined: evolutionary (genetic) adaptation \r\nthrough natural selection; phenotypic plasticity (acclimatisation), \r\nwithin an organism's lifetime; and individual or population mobility \r\ntowards more favourable conditions. There are, however, expected to \r\nbe limits to such natural adaptation, and large variations between \r\nspecies and populations (Gienapp and Merila, 2018). "


id: c4fb54b5004ef5d61dc9470a2b0a1393
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 31964
content:
"An accurate understanding of climate change impacts upon species, \r\ntheir sensitivity and adaptive capacity and consequent ecological \r\neffects (considering both indirect as well as direct impacts) is used \r\nto estimate extinction risk, so that an appropriate management \r\nresponse can be developed (Butt et  al. 2016). EbA takes these \r\ncomplex interactions into account (Hobday et al. 2015), including the \r\ndisruptive impacts of alien invasive species (Ondiviela et  al. 2014; \r\nWigand et al. 2017). Effective adaptation action, therefore, contains \r\na broader consideration than historical conservation practices \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement), including the development of \r\ninternational collaborations and databases to improve ocean-scale \r\nunderstanding of climate change impacts (Okey et al. 2014; Young \r\net al. 2015). A key knowledge gap relates to the critical thresholds for \r\nirreversible change for species (Powell et al. 2017)."


id: 73c6cceae132b25908306f134ed62660
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17621
content:
"Research on active coral reef restoration (Box 5.5) suggests the \r\npotential to help rehabilitate degraded coral reefs, provided that the \r\nunderlying drivers of the impacts are mitigated (high confidence). \r\nOngoing and new research in active coral reef restoration may \r\nfurther improve active reef restoration outcomes (Box 5.5) (low \r\nconfidence). However, these coral reef restoration options may be \r\nineffectual if global warming exceeds 1.5oC relative to pre-industrial \r\nlevels (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018; IPCC, 2018)."


id: a43b2714ce7285f1c6db4d3eda112881
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26084
content:
"Coral reefs are currently threatened by the continuous global \r\ndegradation of warm water coral reef ecosystems and the failure of \r\ntraditional conservation actions to revive most of the degrading reefs \r\n(Rinkevich, 2008; Miller and Russ, 2014). Interventions to rehabilitate \r\ndegraded coral reef ecosystems can be categorised as preventive "


id: 42a32a57455e0ed3958d5e0e15da08d0
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8917
content:
"contour or down the latitudinal gradient (Sierra-Correa and Cantera \r\nKintz, 2015; Ward et  al. 2016; Romanach et  al. 2018). Therefore, \r\nmangrove EbA responses can strengthen coastal ecosystem services \r\nthrough shoreline stabilisation and provide multiple co-benefits \r\nfor coastal communities, like job creation and improved access to \r\necosystem services (high confidence)."


id: 37663e05356fbcc3ff82f219b689b6d5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6958
content:
"Mangroves provide significant ecosystem services, including localised \r\ncoastal protection from extreme storm events (Section 5.4.1), \r\nsupporting services through increased sedimentation rates (Hayden \r\nand Granek, 2015) and provisioning services for local communities, \r\nfor example, habitats for nurseries to support fisheries. Mangroves \r\nprovide limited carbon mitigation, in terms of global emissions \r\nreduction, and substantial job creation (Table 5.7) co-benefits (for \r\nexample through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest \r\nDegradation programmes) when managed properly (Section  5.4.1, \r\n5.5.1.1), and there is evidence of their value in supporting \r\naquaculture and fishery initiatives (Huxham et al. 2015; Ahmed and \r\nGlaser, 2016a). "


id: e3e1cef9fdb15987dcca748e0d9b60ba
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 37381
content:
"There are, however, examples where community mangrove \r\nrestoration projects have resulted in maladaptive outcomes, in \r\nwhich the resulting ecosystem degradation could not provide the \r\necosystem services required (Nguyen et al. 2017; Romanach et al. \r\n2018). Such maladaptation can be a result of poor governance \r\nprocesses or a lack of community compliance with restoration \r\nplans. These examples emphasise the value of designing effective \r\ngovernance to implement adaptation responses with broad \r\ncommunity participation to improve the climate risk reduction \r\noutcomes and co-benefits (Sierra-Correa and Cantera Kintz, 2015; \r\nNguyen et al. 2017) (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: 1c3d17100943a728a1d108b94d7ec3f2
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 2162
content:
"Mangrove and other coastal ecosystems restoration and management \r\ncan be applied through reducing non-climatic hazards (Gilman et al. \r\n2008; Ataur Rahman and Rahman, 2015; Sierra-Correa and Cantera \r\nKintz, 2015; Ahmed and Glaser, 2016a; Nguyen et al. 2017; Romanach \r\net al. 2018). Coastal and catchment development, including wetland \r\ntransformation and degradation (Miloshis and Fairfield, 2015; \r\nSchaeffer-Novelli et  al. 2016; Watson et  al. 2017a; Schuerch et  al. \r\n2018), the disruption of physical processes impacting sedimentation \r\nrates (Watson et al. 2017a) and coastal squeeze compound coastal \r\nclimate change impacts like erosion, flooding and saltwater intrusion \r\n(Ondiviela et al. 2014; Miloshis and Fairfield, 2015; Schaeffer-Novelli \r\net al. 2016; Wigand et al. 2017) (Section 5.3). This reduces the ability "


id: 19be9d1b94f8d1001b94275bd1332dbc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1727
content:
"implementation of EbA and assessment of their cost-effectiveness are \r\nlimited (Narayan et al. 2016). Therefore, EbA can be a cost-effective \r\napproach for securing climate change-related ecosystem services \r\nwith multiple co-benefits (medium evidence, high agreement)."


id: dd884b0b75f14922a2e6261e8929a4c5
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36243
content:
"of these ecosystems to provide protection from wave and storm \r\nimpacts, whilst positive feedbacks may occur that cause a net release \r\nof carbon into the atmosphere, for example, in salt marshes (Wong \r\net al. 2014a) (Section 5.4.1). In some cases, effective interventions \r\nrequires management at a broad spatial scale that includes a variety \r\nof ecosystems, for example, including ecosystems like mussel beds \r\non the seaward side of seagrass beds to reduce wave energy and \r\nerosion (Ondiviela et al. 2014). Where sediment accretion matches \r\nthe SLR rate, wetlands and salt marshes provide effective coastal \r\nprotection and other important ecosystem services (high confidence)."


id: 21404a899785f6920aad0fdc30b5a226
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 3068
content:
"Despite the abundance of EbA examples in the literature, knowledge \r\ngaps pertaining to their implementation and limitations remain. \r\nDeveloping this literature could help with understanding context \r\nspecific application of EbA and improve their effectiveness \r\n(medium confidence)."


id: b6c859495f0dd1e3e37bed7be68b5add
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29358
content:
"Many of the world's great cities lie within the coastal region, and \r\nclimate change impacts put these cities, their inhabitants and their \r\neconomic activities at risk. Section 5.5.2.2 assesses the impacts \r\nof climate change, adaptation response and benefits upon human \r\nsystems, including coastal communities, built infrastructure, fisheries \r\nand aquaculture, coastal tourism, government and health systems. \r\nTable 5.8 provides a summary of the assessment, with citations \r\nprovided in the Supplementary Material Table 5.7."


id: faeb60981834e0826b44457b58cdfb3b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 41528
content:
"Poorly planned (Ataur Rahman and Rahman, 2015), located (Abedin \r\net al. 2014; Betzold and Mohamed, 2017; Linkon, 2018) and managed \r\nurban settlements or human systems, driven by growing human \r\ncoastal populations (Perkins et  al. 2015; Moosavi, 2017; Carter, \r\n2018) and compounded by the disruption of coastal and catchment \r\nphysical processes (Nagy et al. 2014; Broto et al. 2015; Marfai et al. \r\n2015; Kabisch et al. 2017) and pollution (Zikra et al. 2015; Peng et al. \r\n2017) are major human drivers of change compounding the impacts \r\nof climate change."


id: edcb30c171ba2d58a93cf48bb3a04bb9
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 39195
content:
"Coastal communities, built infrastructure and fisheries and \r\naquaculture (Table 5.8) are likely to be significantly affected through \r\nthe disruption of coastal physical processes (DasGupta and Shaw, \r\n2015; Betzold and Mohamed, 2017; Hagedoorn et al. 2019) leading to \r\ncoastal erosion, flooding, salt water intrusion and built infrastructure \r\ndamage (Dhar and Khirfan, 2016; Hobday et al. 2016a; Jurjonas and \r\nSeekamp, 2018) (robust evidence, high agreement). "


id: a32209a400a1ad26b440550e747c903e
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 25910
content:
"Table 5.8 | Summary of reported Adaptation responses (A), the Impacts (I) they aimed to address, and the expected Benefits (B) in human systems within Physical, \r\nEcological, Social, Governance, Economic and Knowledge categories. Legend: a + sign indicates robust evidence, a triangle indicates medium evidence and an underline \r\nindicates limited evidence. Dark blue cells indicate high agreement, blue indicates medium agreement and light blue indicates either low agreement (denoted by presence \r\nof a sign) if sufficient papers were reviewed for an assessment or no assessment (if less than three papers were assessed per cell). Papers used for this assessment can be \r\nfound in SM5.6."


id: ab98c892aafbfd5fc48c05c547c9073b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27425
content:
"change need to be incorporated into cooperation agreements \r\nand policy (Wong et  al. 2014a). The deployment of either built or \r\nnatural protection systems, or adopting a 'wait and see' approach, is \r\nsubject to the social acceptance of these approaches in communities \r\n(Poumadere et  al. 2015; Sherren et  al. 2016; Torabi et  al. 2018). \r\nSimilarly, the willingness to move away from climate change impacted \r\nzones is dependent upon a range of other socioeconomic factors \r\nlike age, access to resources and crime (Bukvic et al.; Rulleau and \r\nRey-Valette, 2017). Adaptation to climate change includes a range of \r\nnon-climatic and social variables that complicate implementation of \r\nadaptation plans (robust evidence, high agreement)."


id: e9a72401644f7ecaa7c218540f33cb93
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38459
content:
"Improving community participation and integrating knowledge \r\nsystems (local, traditional and scientific) supports coastal community \r\nadaptation responses (high confidence), providing improved \r\nco-production of knowledge (medium evidence, high agreement), \r\nimproved community awareness (medium evidence, medium \r\nagreement) and better-informed, more cohesive coastal communities \r\n(limited evidence, medium agreement)."


id: 43081a8832f138c8cb5043f20582c887
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 8996
content:
"This section describes a range of adaptation responses reported at \r\nthe level of the individual or community. Hard engineering responses \r\nincluded small scale hard infrastructure coastal defenses (Betzold and \r\nMohamed, 2017; Jamero et al. 2018), design responses at the household \r\nlevel (Ataur Rahman and Rahman, 2015; Linkon, 2018) and retreat \r\n(Marfai et al. 2015). Ecosystem restoration and protection, particularly \r\nin mangroves (Ataur Rahman and Rahman, 2015; Bennett et  al. \r\n2016; Jamero et al. 2018; Hagedoorn et al. 2019) through community \r\nparticipation programmes (Barbier, 2015; Petzold and Ratter, 2015; \r\nBennett et al. 2016; Dhar and Khirfan, 2016; Jamero et al. 2018) was \r\nstrongly supported in the literature as a means to improve access to \r\nor storage of natural resources (medium evidence, high agreement). "


id: d6e94f01c4d0898f14b9f75ca1ec174c
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35114
content:
"Built infrastructure impacts are most frequently addressed through \r\nhard engineering approaches including: construction of groins, \r\nseawalls, revetments, gabions and breakwaters (Friedrich and \r\nKretzinger, 2012; Vikolainen et  al. 2017); improving drainage and \r\nraising the height of roadways and other fixed-location infrastructure \r\n(Perkins et al. 2015; Becker et al. 2016; Colin et al. 2016; Asadabadi \r\nand Miller-Hooks, 2017; Brown et al. 2018a); erosion control systems \r\n(Jeong et  al. 2014); and the relocation of infrastructure (Friedrich \r\nand Kretzinger, 2012; Colin et al. 2016). Nature-based responses are \r\nincreasingly being reported as complementary and supporting tools \r\n(van der Nat et al. 2016; Kabisch et al. 2017; Gracia et al. 2018) using \r\necological engineering (Perkins et al. 2015; van der Nat et al. 2016; \r\nMoosavi, 2017) combined with innovative construction strategies \r\n(Moosavi, 2017). "


id: 3598b650931e3fa589c0922d78196172
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6684
content:
"When implemented together, hard and soft engineering responses \r\nprovide social (Gracia et  al. 2018; Martinez et  al. 2018; Woodruff, \r\n2018) and ecological (Perkins et al. 2015; van der Nat et al. 2016; \r\nGracia et al. 2018) co-benefits with reduced damage costs (Jeong et al. \r\n2014). Constraints on implementation include the space and extra cost \r\nrequired by ecological infrastructure, sub-optimal performance when \r\nimpacted by natural physical processes that are disrupted (Gracia \r\net  al. 2018) or restrictions associated with governance (Vikolainen \r\net  al. 2017). Adaptation planning including local communities can \r\nimprove implementation and help fill knowledge gaps (Kaja and \r\nMellic, 2017; Moosavi, 2017; Martinez et al. 2018; Mikellidou et al. \r\n2018). Benefits include increased resilience in coastal infrastructure \r\nand better informed decision making tools (medium confidence). "


id: 71095dcd6cda25b4ebd517e609fff2e3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 17148
content:
"Sixty percent of assessed species are projected to be at high risk from \r\nboth overfishing and climate change by 2050 (RCP8.5), particularly \r\ntropical and subtropical species (Cheung et al. 2018b). Overfishing \r\nis one of the most important non-climatic drivers affecting the "


id: 5ca4f7ea371acfc0a1e5813852f6316f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"sustainability of fisheries (Islam et al. 2013; Heenan et al. 2015; Faraco \r\net al. 2016; Dasgupta et al. 2017; Cheung et al. 2018b; Harvey et al. \r\n2018). Pursuing sustainable fisheries practices under a low emissions \r\nscenario would decrease risk by 63%. This highlights the importance \r\nof effective fisheries management (Gaines et al. 2018). Eliminating \r\noverfishing would, however, require reducing current levels of fishing \r\neffort, with a potential short-term reduction in catches impacting \r\nlivelihoods and the food security of coastal communities (Hobday \r\net al. 2015; Dey et al. 2016; Rosegrant et al. 2016; Campbell, 2017; \r\nFinkbeiner et  al. 2018). Despite consensus on the effectiveness of \r\neliminating overfishing in supporting climate change adaptation in \r\nfisheries (robust evidence, high agreement), successful adaptation \r\noutcomes remain aspirational. "


id: e11ab871e257bb66adef79355b8a24d1
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36870
content:
"Fisheries management strategies depend heavily upon data \r\ncollection and monitoring systems. These include the accuracy of \r\ndata collected in respect of predicting environmental conditions, \r\nover time scales from months to decades (Dunstan et  al. 2018), \r\neffective monitoring and evaluative mechanisms (Le Cornu et  al. \r\n2017; Gourlie et al. 2018), controlling for aspects of fish population \r\ndynamics like recruitment success and fish movement (Mace, 2001). \r\nSeasonal to decadal  climate prediction  systems allow for skillful \r\npredictions of climate variables relevant to fisheries management \r\nstrategies (Hobday et  al. 2016b; Payne et  al. 2017). Effective \r\nfisheries adaptation responses will require knowledge development \r\nincluding better monitoring, modelling and improving decision \r\nsupport frameworks (medium evidence, high agreement) and \r\nimproving forecasting and early warning systems (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement)."


id: ffdf5ddd04d3d79fbd7c0d7d3548e9ee
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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content:
"knowledge management include improving participatory processes \r\n(robust evidence, high agreement), integrating knowledge systems \r\n(medium evidence, high agreement), and stakeholder identification, \r\noutreach and education (medium evidence, medium agreement). \r\nEcosystem-based adaptation, community participatory programmes, \r\nand improving agricultural and fisheries practices are very strongly \r\nsupported in the literature (high confidence)."


id: 1967d2e0b39e655fade6199059bb7eda
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 1685
content:
"The coastal tourism economic sector is highly sensitive to climate \r\nchange. Tourism response, in terms of mitigating carbon emissions \r\nand adapting to climate change impacts, are assessed here. Coastal \r\ntourism is likely to be impacted by ecosystem degradation and \r\nloss (limited evidence, medium agreement), which underscores the \r\nimportance of nature-based tourism. An example of coastal erosion \r\nin Latin America illustrates this, whereby SLR interacting with \r\nnon-climate change impacts including sand mining, inappropriate \r\ndevelopment and habitat destruction (e.g., mangroves), resulted in \r\ndeclines in tourism (Rangel-Buitrago et al. 2015). The management \r\nrecommendation was appropriate legislation with a marine spatial \r\nplanning emphasis, enforcement, sustainable funding mechanisms \r\nand support networks for decision making."


id: e781765f69b51d9a5bc07b978e901d2b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 38037
content:
"Less still is known about how climate change will affect the deep \r\noceans and its fisheries (Section 5.2.3 and 5.2.4), the vulnerability of \r\nits habitats to fishing disturbance and future effects on resources not \r\ncurrently harvested (FAO, 2019). Johnson et al. (2019) concluded that \r\nin a 20- to 50-year timeframe, the effectiveness of virtually all north \r\nAtlantic deep water and open ocean area-based management tools \r\ncan be expected to be affected. They concluded that more precise \r\nand detailed oceanographic data are needed to determine possible \r\nrefugia, and more research on adaptation and resilience in the deep \r\nsea is needed to predict ecosystem response times. "


id: 6733c22caaba583affbb4a38b38ad510
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 15432
content:
"It is very likely that climate change will have direct and nuanced \r\nimpacts upon coastal tourism. Improving decision support \r\nframeworks (low evidence, medium agreement) for better-informed \r\ndecision making tools could contribute towards increasing resilience \r\nin coastal tourism (low evidence, limited agreement)."


id: 34c98c869aecc4da3fdee05a14b33bac
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 6528
content:
"An example of eco-engineering-based adaptation option in seaweed \r\naquaculture under climate change is artificial upwelling, as shown by \r\nexperiments and observations. Artificial upwelling powered by green \r\nenergy (solar, wind, wave or tidal energy) to seaweeds (Jiao et al. \r\n2014b; Zhang et al. 2015; Pan and Schimel, 2016) can moderate the \r\namount of deep water upwelled to the euphotic zone to just meet \r\nthe demands of nutrients and DIC by the seaweed for photosynthesis, \r\nwhile avoiding the acidification and hypoxia that often occur in \r\nnatural upwelling systems (Jiao et al. 2018a; Jiao et al. 2018b) (high \r\nconfidence). Such artificial upwelling based eco-engineering may \r\nalso gradually release the 'bomb' of rich nutrients and hypoxia in \r\nthe bottom water, which could otherwise breakout following storms \r\n(Daneri et al. 2012) (high confidence). "


id: e121166ca76c76fa7856ddff9941b4dc
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 36873
content:
"Government responses included adopting and mainstreaming \r\nsustainability policies, including investments and policies for climate \r\nchange (Aylett, 2015; Buurman and Babovic, 2016) and applying \r\nthe precautionary principle in the absence of precise scientific \r\nguidance (Johnson et  al. 2018). Developing adequate governance \r\nand management systems (Johnson et  al. 2018), strengthening \r\ncapacity (Gallo et  al. 2017; Paterson et  al. 2017), increasing \r\ncooperation (Nunn et  al. 2014; Gormley et  al. 2015) and aligning \r\npolicies of local authorities (Porter et  al. 2015; Gallo et  al. 2017; \r\nRosendo et al. 2018) could help to improve implementation (Sano \r\net  al. 2015; Elsharouny, 2016). This includes planning for MPAs \r\nand improving integrated coastal management (Abelshausen et al. \r\n2015; Roberts et  al. 2017; Rosendo et  al. 2018) by incorporating "


id: aa64f8dec7e8702ddf8c3987530d96eb
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 27206
content:
"climate science (Hopkins et al. 2016; Johnson et al. 2018) to optimise \r\npriority marine habitats (Gormley et  al. 2015; Jones et  al. 2018). \r\nAn advantage of integrated coastal management is that it helps \r\nmanage the interactions between multiple climate and non-climatic \r\ndrivers of coastal ecosystems and sectors. Incorporating stakeholder \r\nparticipation with local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge \r\ncould help to reduce the risk of maladaptation, and increase buy\u0002in for implementation (Serrao-Neumann et  al. 2013). Improving \r\nparticipatory processes strengthens governance decision making and \r\nflexible risk management processes (Gerkensmeier and Ratter, 2018; \r\nRosendo et  al. 2018), while stimulating bi-directional knowledge \r\nflow and improving social learning (Abelshausen et al. 2015)."


id: 5d2b09f6d601f30de4a16462526d7345
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13669
content:
"Technology for environmental monitoring, for example using drones \r\n(Clark, 2017), web-based coastal information systems (Mayerle et al. \r\n2016; Newell and Canessa, 2017), the Internet of Things and machine \r\nlearning solutions promise to improve the local scale knowledge base, \r\nwhich should improve climate adaptation planning and resilience \r\neffort and environmental management decisions (Conde  et  al. \r\n2015). Where such knowledge gaps persist, the implementation of \r\nclimate change adaptation measures could proceed on the basis \r\nof a set of general principals of best practice (Sheaves et al. 2016; \r\nThorne et al. 2017)."


id: 5c6dd9ab4f962a8c213cb0039d83f3e7
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 13518
content:
"Benefits of effective government adaptation response includes the \r\npromotion of sustainable use, development and protection of coastal \r\necosystems (Rosendo et al. 2018) and the protection of biodiversity \r\nthrough setting appropriate conservation priorities (Gormley et  al. \r\n2015). Improved governance includes consideration of social \r\nprocesses in risk management (Gerkensmeier and Ratter, 2018; \r\nRosendo et al. 2018) and improved systematic conservation planning \r\n(Johnson et al. 2018). At a local level, this translates into sustained \r\nservice delivery (Aylett, 2015), improved rationality and effective \r\npolicy making (Serrao-Neumann et al. 2013; Rosendo et al. 2018)."


id: bb4dd781b5bbe74ec8977b6cb6191469
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30170
content:
"Improving the implementation and coordination of policies and \r\nimproving integrated coastal management are both considered \r\nimportant climate change adaptation governance responses (robust \r\nevidence, high agreement), as are developing partnerships and \r\nbuilding capacity (medium evidence, high agreement) and adopting \r\nor mainstreaming sustainability policies (limited evidence, medium \r\nagreement). Benefits include improved ecosystem resilience, better \r\nplanning processes, implementation and policies (all limited evidence, \r\nmedium agreement)."


id: 73844a2213892045b5f514b5abf6d041
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
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content:
"Despite such interest, evaluations of the planning, implementation and \r\nmonitoring of adaptation actions remain scarce (Miller et al. 2017). In \r\na global analysis of 401 local governments, only 15% reported on \r\nadaptation actions (mostly large cities in high income countries), and \r\n18% reported on planning towards adaptation policy (Araos et  al. \r\n2016). Thus, integrated adaptation planning with non-climate change \r\nrelated impacts remains an under-achieved ambition, especially in \r\ndeveloping countries (Finkbeiner et al. 2018). Challenges reported for \r\nadaptation planning include uncoordinated, top-down approaches, \r\na lack of political will, insufficient resources (Elias and Omojola, 2015; \r\nPorter et al. 2015), and access to information (Thorne et al. 2017)."


id: a3d553fe06e7ed1c1fbc8ddf5140483b
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 26019
content:
"Adaptation action in pursuit of a climate resilient development \r\npathway is likely to have a deeper transformative outcome than \r\nstepwise or ad hoc responses (Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1). \r\nRecent literature highlighting the effectiveness of components \r\nof adaptation planning includes quantitative assessments of \r\nvulnerability in ecosystems (Kuhfuss et  al. 2016), species (Cheung \r\net al. 2015; Cushing et al. 2018), and communities (Islam et al. 2013; \r\nHimes-Cornell and Kasperski, 2015b), and integrated assessments \r\nof all of the above (Peirson et al. 2015; Kaplan-Hallam et al. 2017; \r\nMcNeeley et al. 2017; Ramm et al. 2017; Mavromatidi et al. 2018). "


id: dadc8d734e7c67e882f6eb40c2f976d
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 35798
content:
"Characteristics of successful adaptation frameworks include: \r\na  robust but flexible approach, accounting for deep uncertainty \r\nthrough well-coordinated participatory processes (Dutra et al. 2015; \r\nJiao et al. 2015; Buurman and Babovic, 2016; Dittrich et al. 2016); \r\nwell-developed monitoring systems (Barrett et  al. 2015; Bell et  al. \r\n2018b); and taking a whole systems approach (Sheaves et al. 2016), \r\nwith the identification of co-benefits for human development and the \r\nenvironment (Wise et al. 2016). The coastal adaptation framework "


id: bde4ef9051120d2ea7ed0c7a70e7e16f
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 30670
content:
"literature is dominated by Australian, North American and European \r\ncities, with fewer studies from African and Caribbean sites, least \r\ndeveloped countries and SIDS (Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; Torresan \r\net al. 2016). "


id: 44e072b423a496c66213836b18d20a64
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
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index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 9347
content:
"change within their environment, and recognise the need to adapt. In \r\nthese instances, fishers with higher local knowledge are expected to \r\ndemonstrate a higher adaptive capacity than fishers with lower local \r\nknowledge, and can be expected to progress towards developing \r\nnew strategies to combat the impacts of climate change (Kittinger \r\net  al. 2012). In these instances, local knowledge acts to promote \r\nadaptation (medium confidence). "


id: 9a2a23d764e06c63afdf9adf48b4a2ab
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 24362
content:
"Localised, individual-scale behaviors can aggregate rapidly and \r\ncontribute to the global adaptation response. This can be supported by \r\nclear messaging that clarifies the role of individuals, households and \r\nlocal businesses in addressing climate change. Coastal communities \r\ncan improve the co-production of climate change knowledge (medium \r\nevidence, good agreement) through the integration of knowledge \r\nsystems (Table 5.8). In fisheries and aquaculture, better-informed \r\ndecision making tools (medium evidence, medium agreement) are \r\nsupported by improved participatory processes (high confidence), \r\nintegrating knowledge systems (medium evidence, good agreement) \r\nand improving decision support frameworks (medium evidence, \r\nmedium agreement). "


id: b55b6ad353d53e66f931cecfdd4641f3
created_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
updated_at: 2023-04-19 13:21:30
content_type: text
index: climate_gpt_v2
vector_id: 29139
content:
"Challenges persist in conducting economic assessments for built \r\ninfrastructure adaptation due to complicated uncertainties such as \r\nthe accuracy of climate projections and limited information regarding \r\npaths for future economic growth and adaptation technologies. \r\nAnnual investment and maintenance costs of protecting coasts were \r\nprojected to be 12-71 billion USD (Hinkel et al. 2014), which was \r\nconsidered significantly less than damage costs in the absence of \r\nsuch action. In an analysis of twelve Pacific island countries, 57% of \r\nassessed built infrastructure was located within 500 m of coastlines, \r\nrequiring a replacement value of 21.9 billion USD. Substantial \r\ncoastal adaptation costs (and international financing) are likely to be \r\nrequired in these countries (medium confidence)."


