@kjsdfhas: "Am I the only one who thinks that maybe Smoltz should go back to starting? I
love that he can come out of the pen and completely slam the door, but I
have a feeling that if he had been the one to start Game 1 and Game 5, the
Braves would be in the NLCS. Starting is also something Smoltz has been
wanting to go back to. Let him do it and we have the #1 ace pitcher that we
needed this year. If Smoltz stays as a closer, I think the Braves need to
make some kind of deal to get a reliable stud pitcher. Leo reclamation
projects are nice stories, but as we saw, they can't be relied upon to win
big games.
Also, the bullpen sorely needs to be upgraded. That means getting rid of
crap like Reitsma and Alfonseca. I would like to see the Braves pick up some
proven, non-shaky guys here, because relief pitching is such an important
part of the game. I can't count the number of times a crucial game has been
blown by bad relief. We don't want this to happen to the Braves again.
It's unfortunate the Braves aren't major players for the big-name free
agents anymore. I'd love to see Beltran suit up for the Braves. I would take
him over Drew any day."
    @trad: "<quote>
Smoltz should be traded. Too much risk to start him, too expensive 
as a closer. Braves need his money at other places.
Atlanta won't have money to bring stud pitcher. I'd be satisfied if 
we find a way to keep or replace Drew. Our rotation will once again 
"more of the same". Hampton, Thomson, Ramirez, maybe Bird, maybe 
Wright. Some cheap meat in fifth spot.
And how many LOS did we have in these series??
Come on. We were first in team ERA. Look at stats: nor Reitsma nor 
Alfonseca are reasons we've lost. They both have decent, if not 
spectacular season.
So you want:
a) stud pitcher
b) proven relievers
c) stud hitters
If you have lousy 40 mil to spend, I think JS could satisfy your needs.
Baseball these days are about maximizing bang for buck. And Braves 
are doing just fine. I'd love to see what would JS do with let's say 
  150 M$ budget, but this is not gonna happen.
pzdr
TRad"
    @charlesshelton: "news:4ELad.75897$<email_address>
<quote>
I
we
if he's physically capable, i'd be all for it...but that's not for me to
say.
some
been
alfonseca had a pretty good  year, but you wonder if he can duplicate it.
if you take smoltz out of the pen, then yeah, it will need a major overhaul
including finding a dependable closer.
take
never happen...though it would be sweet to have him.  too bad he didn't play
in the n.l. all season or he might have been the mvp.
-charles"
    @marty_winn: "<quote>
I say tell Smoltz to put up or shut up.  Ask him to drop the provision 
in his contract that gives him an extra $100,000 a start.  Side 
question.  Would the MLBPA even allow him to do that?  It seems that it 
is what he wants to do.
Also if he is on the DL they won't have to pay $13 million since he 
assumedly won't get 30 starts.
Shining the Light,
Marty Winn"
    @colintwilliam: ""Marty Winn" <email_address> wrote
<quote>
I believe teh MLBPA doesn't allow a player to just lower the value of his
contract after it's signed. However, a contract can be renegotiated as part
of an extension, I believe, so he could drop the $100k a start in exchange
for an extension for some mutually agreeable amount.
Colin"
    @jonrichardson: "news:<email_address>
<quote>
I
to
So long as Smoltz got some form of adequate compensation for waiving that
clause (like say, an increase in base pay to $13M, or a vesting team option
added on) the MLBPA would have no problems with Smoltz dropping the clause.
If the Braves asked Smoltz to do it as a gesture of goodwill, it'd never
happen.
Jon
****************************
"I would venture, and I have no idea how to verify this, that more
college-age girls have taken their clothes off to AC/DC's 'Back in Black'
than any other album."
- Lisa Ladouceur"
    @drjamessidbury: "<quote>
ARod of the BoSox is holding on line 1 for you.
However if the Braves were to offier a contract extension for two more 
years, say, then he could drop the 100k without a problem from the 
MLBPA.  However, the Braves might offer an extension which vests after a 
certain number of innings with a buyout for the Braves if they wanted it 
for some reasonable amount of money (2m??)
dick"
    @colintwilliam: ""Sam Hutcheson" <email_address> wrote ...
<quote>
Agreed. One of my most wrong predictions of the year (and I had many)
Hypotheses on this:
(1) Alfonseca was just spent from pitching 4 of the preceding 5 days, a lot
of that in high pressure situations
(2) The hitters due up were the bottom of hte order, Vizcaino and the like.
Needing 4 innings of relief, and knowing Smoltz was likely good for no more
than 1, Cox knew he'd have to use one or two of Reitsma/Martin/Cruz
somewhere. So, he chose to use Reitsma on the soft part of the order, saving
Alfonseca for the harder hitters.
That still doesn't explain why Alfonseca wasn't brought in when thehard
hitters arrived, which leads me to lend more creedence to (1). Either way, I
can't believe that Cox would choose Reitsma over Alfonseca without a darned
good reaosn, given how much faith he'd but in Alfonseca during this series.
Colin"
    @DellWinkles: "   Till changes are made the 2005 roster looks like this:
C Estrada
1B Laroche
2B Giles, Green
SS Furcal
3B Jones
LF Thomas
CF Jones
RF Marrero
Starters
Ramirez
Hampton
Relievers
Cruz
Reitsma
Smoltz
   I do believe that Capellan and Ramon will be on the roster and I'm
not sure about the guys I didn't list above. I know Wright, Ortiz, Drew,
Franco and some others are free agents. I guess in the next few weeks
we'll hear how things will work out and see who's available."
    @CNanceJD: "On 13 Oct 2004 11:43:04 -0700, <email_address> (Sam Hutcheson)
wrote:
<quote>
This sounds like a great idea to me, assuming the Braves have
insurance on Smoltz.  The only thing that I could think of that might
muck it up would be if Smoltz didn't completely fall of the cliff
healthwise but went on and off the DL multiple times during the year
and has his effectiveness reduced but not his cost to the Braves."
    @colintwilliam: ""tom dunne" <email_address> wrote ...
<quote>
My worst case scenario is that Smoltz ends up the closer for a team with a
nondescript rotation that's not giving him enough wins to protect to begin
with.
Colin"
    @drjamessidbury: "<quote>
urm....
do you have a particular team in mind?
dick
 because Hampton and HoRam would not be part of a non-descript 
starting rotation.  IMHO"
    @charlesshelton: "news:<email_address>
<quote>
news:<email_address>...
of
up
important
it.
overhaul
would
play
i have no problem with jd...but i'd take beltran over him in a heartbeat.
-charles"
    @drjamessidbury: "<quote>
Yeah, but after this post season, JD's perceived value went down a 
little and there are still some worries about his health.  Beltran is on 
a run now and his perceived value is going up.  The question is, do you 
take JD for 9-10million or Beltran for 15-16 million?
That's a difficult choice but I'm of the opinion that it's either 
neither or JD.
ds."
    @charlesshelton: "news:<email_address>
<quote>
heartbeat.
i don't think jd is worth 10 million.  despite career highs in games played,
it takes a few seasons to overcome the injury prone stigma, and you already
touched on his performance in the lds.  either way, i don't think jd will
resign with atlanta to tell the truth..not with scott boras as his agent
anyhow. however... i don't know if that means we'll be able to sign a player
of beltran's asking price.  personally i'd rather see them go after some
pitching via free agency than another regular season studoctober dud type
of player.
-charles"
    @colintwilliam: ""Dick Sidbury" <email_address> wrote ...
<quote>
a
begin
They could be part of a rotation that, as a whole, performs at a fairly
unremarkable level. I'm still interested to see if Hampton can rebound to
give an entire season fo good performance. I suspect he'll be traded if he
does.
Horacio I still have on a wait-and-see level. This injury was a little
disturbing this past year, so he's got to rebound from that. Plus, I suspect
he was overperforming this past season to begin with.
Colin"
    @ArchNemesisHostel13: "<quote>
Can someone tell in advance who's going to be an "october dud type of 
player?"  Sheffield obviously isn't a dud as he was good with Florida and is 
good now the Yankees.  I guess the question is: Is there something about the 
Braves as a franchise that causes hitters to severly underperform in the 
post-season?  Are we reading too much into a handful of October ABs for 
Atlanta's right fielders over the last few years? "
    @bblankin: "<quote>
sinking $12M into a 70 ip pitcher was a bad idea, but it's a sunk cost. although
he is grossly overpaid, he is still an excellent closer. i am not confident in
his ability to start anymore.
according to bp's new stats, the top five relievers in baseball were:
NAME                   R&O_E(W)
1.  Brad Lidge           6.206
2.  Tom Gordon           5.821
3.  John Smoltz          5.807
4.  Mariano Rivera       5.189
5.  Eric Gagne           4.899
...
52. Chris Reitsma        1.085
...
82. Antonio Alfonseca    0.569
the numbers are "expected wins added vs. replacement level, adjusted for
opposition," whatever that means.
<url>
gryboski (101) was barely above replacement level. drew, nitkowski, cruz,
martin, almanza and smith were all below replacement. iow, smoltz is the only
guy on the staff with a guaranteed job next year. if reitsma or alfonseca is
willing to come back for a salary one win better than $300,000, i'll give him a
look. otherwise, you could pick five guys out of the stands in spring training.
one of 'em is bound to be replacement-level.
bull. 52.9 runs above replacement would have ranked 6th in the al, 11th in the
nl. andruw's 29.9 pales in comparison. this was his 27-y-o season; his ops to
this point has risen .791, .675, .876, .847, .911, .915. i see no reason to
believe this year's .915 is a fluke. andruw broke .900 in 2000, and has
regressed to his career mark of .835 since.
meanwhile, beltran has a zone rating of .886 would be a nice upgrade from
andruw's .836. i would trade andruw straight-up for beltran without thinking
twice. he is not barry bonds or albert pujols, as you so kindly pointed out. but
he's a better player than andruw jones, on both sides of the ball.
Ben
i'm taking it one day at a time.
right now, i'm up to last tuesday"
    @charlesshelton: "news:<email_address>
<quote>
is
the
i didn't mean to infer that there was a way to figure out who's going to
choke in the playoffs, just that i'd rather them upgrade the pitching staff
than try to bring in a big bat.  if they could do both, great.
as for our offensive woes in the playoffs...i have no idea.  last year i can
blame on woods & prior.  year before that we scored a ton of runs vs. the
giants until game 5.   year before that we had to face shilling & johnson in
the lcs...who was gonna score on those guys?  really we haven't been that
terrible the last 3  years...we did take each series to a game 5.   i think
just because we came up short each time we tend to magnify christopher16@example.org.
really drew's performance in this year's lds was probably the worst for us
for the last few years from an expected output to performance perspective.
-charles"
    @ArchNemesisHostel13: "<quote>
I like the idea of adjusting for strength of opposition but I'm not a huge 
fan of things that rely so much on usage patters.  This stat, for example, 
takes into account "the impact [a reliever] had on the team's chances of 
winning the game."  IOW, your  mop-up guys aren't going to score well on 
this stat /no matter how well they pitch/.  A team's closer is going to get 
a bonus in this stat /just because he's being used as a closer/ (whether 
he's the best reliever on the team or not) due to the fact that closers come 
in a lot with the game on the line.
According to this article 
(<url> the going 
rate for one Win Share Above Replacement for a free agent is $1.35m.  Note 
that this is the "going rate" or the rate that teams actually paid free 
agents this year for the performance value that they generated - not the 
actual monetary value to the team.  Anyway, three win shares are worth one 
win, so the free agent salary that is "one win better than $300,000" is 
around $4.35m.  According to the math laid out in that same article, 
Alfonseca was worth five WSAR, or $7.05m.  Remember that this is how much it 
cost on the open market this year to acquire someone that would generate 
five WS. "
    @myfirstnamemylastinitial: "On Thu, 14 Oct 2004 10:50:44 -0400, "Ben" <email_address>
wrote:
<quote>
as alan points out, BP weights their numbers for "game situation",
which i happen to think is utter bullshit.  the conventional wisdom
with regard to relievers that requires one to weight innings by
pressure or leverage is based on a fallacy that equates an out's value
in a late inning, close game to a *run's value* in that same game.
the run becomes more valuable the later it gets in the game.  the outs
do not.
and if i had said anything vaguely resembling "beltran is no better
than andruw jones" you'd have a point, skipper.  but what i actually
said is that in 2005 carlos beltran will be overpaid for his actual
value by about the same percentage as andruw is currently overpaid by
the braves.  that's not a direct comparison of the two players' skill
sets, but their relative value against their 2005 contracts.
would i rather have beltran than andruw, at the same price.  well, no,
i wouldn't, but it would be for completely irrational reasons
involving my seething desire to see him hit in the face by every pitch
thrown his way.  if not for that, assuming i was acting rationally in
the decision making process, sure, i probably would.  but carlos
beltran is going to get a carlos delgado like contract next year, and
he isn't worth it.
bring back j.d. drew.
s/
*****
"And a year from now, I'll be very surprised if there is not 
some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush."
 Richard Perle, Sept. 22, 2003"
    @myfirstnamemylastinitial: "On Thu, 14 Oct 2004 22:38:56 GMT, tom dunne <email_address>
wrote:
<quote>
the yankees will go after him.
s/
*****
"And a year from now, I'll be very surprised if there is not 
some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush."
 Richard Perle, Sept. 22, 2003"
    @myfirstnamemylastinitial: "On Thu, 14 Oct 2004 23:09:55 GMT, tom dunne <email_address>
wrote:
<quote>
also, beltran is younger than vlad was last year, and he doesn't have
the nagging back injury to deflate his value/number of bidders.
and he's got the super-powered playoff star mojo driving his ticket up
as well.
no less than $15.  probably $17.
s/
*****
"And a year from now, I'll be very surprised if there is not 
some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush."
 Richard Perle, Sept. 22, 2003"
    @myfirstnamemylastinitial: "On Thu, 14 Oct 2004 23:51:29 GMT, tom dunne <email_address>
wrote:
<quote>
mayhap, but my guess is that the empire will want a bernie williams
replacement and the bo-sox will want revenge for arod and a way to
make manny ramirez a fulltime DH.  see also "johnny damon to left
field."
i think beltran will get $15+ and that the only real difference
between his contract and delgado/jeter will be length of committment.
the market correction will occur in the number of years (probably no
more than four or five) rather than the yearly payout.
s/
*****
"And a year from now, I'll be very surprised if there is not 
some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush."
 Richard Perle, Sept. 22, 2003"
    @jonrichardson: "news:ibFbd.310086$<email_address>
<quote>
Through his last at-bat, he's got a 1623 OPS in the playoffs.
Now if he keeps this up for another 60 PAs, he'll still be 200 points of OPS
shy of what Barry Bonds hit for the month of April (1828).
Yeah, not really apt, but still pretty damned amazing.
Jon
****************************
"I would venture, and I have no idea how to verify this, that more
college-age girls have taken their clothes off to AC/DC's 'Back in Black'
than any other album."
- Lisa Ladouceur"
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