@anny_m (anny middon) posted a new topic, subject "What happens if there's a long-term electricity outage that covers a large area?". It read: Although I haven't seen anything recently, for a time there was a spate of articles claiming that the electrical grid in the US was susceptible to hacking. (Usually the article implied Russian hackers might do this.) Assume this actually happens, and it affects most or all of the US. Obviously weather would have a big effect on the number of lives lost, but what else would happen? If the outage is short-lived, water would continue to flow in areas with “city” water. But wouldn't that last only a short time? Once the water towers have emptied, isn't electricity required to pump the tanks full? Or do most city have generators for their main water pumps? If so, how long will that last? If a home is on a well/septic system, will most be able to still get water through a manual pump? I have the impression that typically well water gets into the home's plumbing system by use of an electric pump. How about natural gas? Would it continue to flow unimpeded for the duration of the electricity outage, or is there a point in which the natural gas system will require electricity to keep going? Will cellphone service continue? I know individual phones will last only as long as the batteries that power them last, but if you can recharge (through solar power maybe) could you continue to use your phone? I figure you won't be able to refuel your car, so you'll be stuck with however much gasoline you have when the power went out. Except for checking on loved ones, there may not be anywhere you'd want to go. I was thinking we'd save our fuel for any emergency trips to the hospital – but how long will hospitals be able to function? Given that people will use candles and oil lamps as light sources, I imagine there would be more need for firetrucks. How long will they likely be able to continue service? How would they know their services were needed? Unfortunately, I expect it wouldn't be long before there was some serious looting. How long would police be able to operate? And again, how could you contact them? All in all, how long would it be before we descend into total chaos? Then @solost (solost) said I experienced something similar to this, though on a somewhat smaller scale, during the Northeast blackout of 2003. it was caused by a computer glitch, so I assume it's similar to what hacking may be able to accomplish. Fortunately it happened in the summer, so no fears of freezing without heat. It actually wasn't phambrittany@example.com. We emptied out freezer and invited neighbors (some of whom we hadn't talked to before) for a big bbq of shrimp and scallop kebobs, and had a great old time. It happened during the weekend of a big event in the area called the Woodward Ave. Dream Cruise, and the Friday night before all the associated attractions in the carnival-like atmosphere at 9 Mile and Woodward— carnival rides, food stands, bands playing, etc.— were all business as usual, running on generators. No tap water was concerning, but we had access to bottled water. I don't remember hearing nay reports of any looting of any consequence, at least in our area. The total lack of light pollution, being able to see the Milky Way from our backyard, was amazing. The power was restored less than 72 hours later. If it had gone on for a week or more, things may have gotten more dire, but as it was it was like camping, almost fun. After which, @ParallelLines added I think that it falls back to Alfred Lewis' comment that “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Given a total disruption of power for much more than 72 hours, people are going to very quickly start running out of food that is stored or can be prepped without some sort of off-grid fuel. Absent weather related accelerating factors, I'd give it roughly a week before things started getting bad, especially if there was no improvement on the horizon. It'll also vary by region - here in CO, the expectation (if you have the space and $ to do so) is that you keep supplies for at least 72 hours, about the norm for the once-a-decade or so serious snow-in where you'd expect to be without power and stuck without any way to get out. Since pretty much all utilities are dependent upon computer control to manage, I'd fully expect those trying to depend on natural gas would fail under an extended lack of primary power. I honestly think (IMHO territory rather than FQ) that the expected cyberattacks would result in more intermittent, rather than absolute power outages. That you'd be out for several hours/a day, they'd force a local or partial fix, returning to ‘normal' then another exploit would result in another partial or medium outage. It would very quickly become an all hands thing, with probably a lot of back and forth. Which would be supremely irritating, but likely more survivable than a days-long absolute loss. What worried me regarding this particular topic, was the discussion this time last year of what could happen in Texas if it's grid, largely independent of the rest of the US, went down for a month for repairs. Something that pretty much zero steps have been taken to prevent despite much shouting after the Snowmageddon. Then @PastTense (PastTense) said ParallelLines: > Given a total disruption of power for much more than 72 hours, people are going to very quickly start running out of food that is stored or can be prepped without some sort of off-grid fuel. Really? I thought most people had a lot of pantry stuff which doesn't need to be cooked to be safe to eat (even if it traditionally is cooked). So @aruvqan (aruvqan) replied ParallelLines: > I think that it falls back to Alfred Lewis' comment that “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” ROTFLMAO We here in civilized Northeastern CT are the red headed stepchild of the electrical grid here in CT. All the resources go first to Fairfield County [down near NY] then center state Hartford, then coastal New Haven [Sub Base New London has its own generation plant, and submarines have cute little nuke reactors so in a pinch they can be shore power ] My town [Canterbury] on one notable occasion actually was the LAST community to get power back, some freaking 3 weeks … we have outages going from hours to weeks on end. As a medieval recreationist and camper, our household has a generator in case it is summer and we need to power refrigeration, a cute little solar rig permanently mounted on the wall with the panel attached to the roof, and I have cooked for 60 people on a campfire so food is not an issue =) In the winter, we heat with an unpowered wall mounted propane heater and I can charge my series of LED ‘lightbulbs' using the biolite or the generator as I choose. We also have a whole series of LED rechargable batteries we can charge either with the biolite or the generator. I do all sorts of interesting stuff on my smartphone that I can charge either in the van, the biolite or the generator. I am perfectly happy hanging out reading on my phone or kindle [rechargable etc] until the power comes back. Our well works with a pump powered by the generator. So other than potentially running out of propane [we keep enough on hand for an average month] or fuel for the van and car, we really have not got an issue with losing power. Though before we got the generator, we would wander down to base and shower in the gym or pool there every couple days. After which, @ParallelLines added PastTense: > Really? I thought most people had a lot of pantry stuff which doesn't need to be cooked to be safe to eat (even if it traditionally is cooked). Let's be clear - most people is making a huge socio-economic assumption. I know several co-workers, who work full time, who buy groceries paycheck by paycheck. Especially if you have kids, having a lot of food around is a big assumption. And in the case of the specific people I'm thinking about, a lot of their ‘pantry' food is things like pasta and beans, that is dried and cheap, as well as filling and versatile - right until you can't get electricity and water to cook them. So, yeah, figure an extended (over 72 hour) period with no power is going to start getting very rough for a large group of people. 72 hours, yeah, most people will get buy with their perishables and other supplies. But by the end of a week, a lot of people will start being hungry enough to stop caring about the niceties. There will be plenty of people who have more extensive supplies / prepping, but I doubt they'll be anywhere close to the majority. After which, @Broomstick (Broomstick) added anny_m: > If the outage is short-lived, water would continue to flow in areas with “city” water. But wouldn't that last only a short time? Once the water towers have emptied, isn't electricity required to pump the tanks full? Or do most city have generators for their main water pumps? If so, how long will that last? This will vary. IF a city has independent generators of some sort they last as long as the fuel lasts. That's it. Again, that will vary. anny_m: > If a home is on a well/septic system, will most be able to still get water through a manual pump? I have the impression that typically well water gets into the home's plumbing system by use of an electric pump. Most these days have an electric pump. Depending on circumstances this may or may not require a lot of power. It MIGHT be possible to somehow jury-rig an alternate power system for such a pump. Potable water will suddenly become very valuable. anny_m: > Will cellphone service continue? I know individual phones will last only as long as the batteries that power them last, but if you can recharge (through solar power maybe) could you continue to use your phone? A lot depends on whether or not the cell towers are still functioning. A cellphone without a working cell tower does not provide communication. It may have some other forms of utility in the form of apps loaded onto the phone, if you can keep it powered. As it happens, I have a small emergency radio that runs on (count 'em!) battery, hand-crank, or solar. I expect I am the exception and not the rule. I also have a portable, 3 panel solar array (thanks to my late mad-scientist spouse) that can provide power during the day to a variety of things, including a deep- cycle battery for overnight use. Solar yard lights can provide phambrittany@example.com. anny_m: > I was thinking we'd save our fuel for any emergency trips to the hospital – but how long will hospitals be able to function? There will be some functions that hospitals can continue without power - but they will be limited. Very limited. And certainly not what we expect of 21st Century medicine in the industrialized world. anny_m: > Given that people will use candles and oil lamps as light sources, I imagine there would be more need for firetrucks. How long will they likely be able to continue service? How would they know their services were needed? I'd hope a lot of folks would have flashlights, but yes, there will be more fires. How will the fire department know? Smoke and flames, I'd guess. Short range radio communications. They might wind up doing rescues if they run out of the means of pouring water on fires. anny_m: > Unfortunately, I expect it wouldn't be long before there was some serious looting. How long would police be able to operate? Policing will return to 19th Century techniques, with the addition of, again, portable radios if they can keep them powered. anny_m: > All in all, how long would it be before we descend into total chaos? I've heard estimates from 3 days to several weeks to a month or two. The truth is, it will vary. Some places will go downhill very fast. Others will have the populace organize, cooperate, and find ways to keep some sort of civilization going. I think for a couple days people (and society) will hum along on inertia. A lot of people have some supplies, folks can get by for a few days, might even be a party atmosphere as everyone has a cook out for what's thawing in the freezers. ParallelLines: > Given a total disruption of power for much more than 72 hours, people are going to very quickly start running out of food that is stored or can be prepped without some sort of off-grid fuel. Some folks will have camping equipment and stuff to eat that is less perishable that what needs a fridge, but that won't be everyone and the food will go fairly fast unless you're in Mormon country. ParallelLines: > Absent weather related accelerating factors, I'd give it roughly a week before things started getting bad, especially if there was no improvement on the horizon. Yep, after a week folks will start running out of patience as well as food and potable water. PastTense: > Really? I thought most people had a lot of pantry stuff which doesn't need to be cooked to be safe to eat (even if it traditionally is cooked). How many people know how to cook without modern appliances? How many people can build a minimal fire and boil water, much less anything fancier than that? ParallelLines: > There will be plenty of people who have more extensive supplies / prepping, but I doubt they'll be anywhere close to the majority. And if they're smart they'll be quiet about their resources so as to not attract the wrong sort of attention. So @Bootb replied This is not quite exactly what the OP asked, but a very similar question is asked by the novel _One Second After_ , by William R. Forstchen. The kick-off event in the novel is a massive EMP. This book is probably the closest thing we have to a definitive study of what would happen in such a situation. @DrDeth (DrDeth) replied Broomstick: > Some folks will have camping equipment and stuff to eat that is less perishable that what needs a fridge, but that won't be everyone and the food will go fairly fast unless you're in Mormon country. Not even that is a sure bet. My buddy worked at a “Prepper” store and he said many Mormons, in order to fulfill the letter, bought a deal which was lots of sealed 5 gallon plastic buckets of hard red wheat and some filled with honey (which he said was bought so cheap he suspected HFCS). Good luck making dinner with _that_ if no power. So, we are talking another Texas thing? 2021 Texas power crisis - Wikipedia Some lost power for three days. Between 300-700 died. IIRC we lost power up in San Jose for about three days due the the big earthquake. AFAIK, no major issues. We have about a months worth of food, and light for as longer as needed. No water, and things will get a bit dicey for toilet flushing. But we have plenty stored for drinking. We'd be okay for a month or so, if it didn't get too cold or hot. So @Broomstick (Broomstick) replied Cold weather would be a problem, but I know someone who'd probably take me in who has sufficient wood stoves for his home for survival. I may not have much to come back to, depending on how long problems continue, but let's hope it doesn't come to that. In winter a lot of people would die, plain and simple. Most housing these days depends on modern utilities to keep warm enough for survival in a temperate climate winter. Hot summer heat can also be lethal. A lot depends on the time of year. To which @bump (bump) replied The big question is whether the grid failing would be in such a way that would preclude “islands” of power. Keep in mind that the power grid is supplied with electricity by a bunch of powerplants that are all exactly in sync with each other at 60 hz alternating current. IANA electrical engineer, but I think it's possible that if the entire grid failed, it would be possible for powerplants to fire back up (a “black start”) and supply limited areas with power, until they could be reconnected with other powerplants as part of a larger effort to restore the entire grid. I also assume (maybe not rightly?) that there's some sort of plan for doing a cold grid start- some plant in the grid is designated as the “master” plant, and everyone syncs to it as they come back online. As far as societal issues go, I would think that water would be the main one; I'm not sure that most water utilities have fuel reserves on hand to power their equipment for much more than a few days at most, if they even have that much. So @dorvann (dorvann) replied ParallelLines: > There will be plenty of people who have more extensive supplies / prepping, but I doubt they'll be anywhere close to the majority. I think even some people who have food stockpiled could end running out faster than they think if they assume the outage is short-term and don't both ration the food they have out. To which @dorvann (dorvann) replied Broomstick: > I'd hope a lot of folks would have flashlights, but yes, there will be more fires. How will the fire department know? Smoke and flames, I'd guess. Short range radio communications. They might wind up doing rescues if they run out of the means of pouring water on fires. That makes me think that that wildfires in the US West would be an even bigger disasters than they are now. Not mention any other disasters (such hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes) that occurred during an extended power outage. Then @mjmartin (mjmartin) said People that are dependent on medical supplies would be in a world of trouble. Dialysis, insulin, medication, even baby formula. At any given time when my children were using formula, we might of had a 10 day supply on hand. I have no idea what we would have done if getting more became difficult or impossible. I also wonder how long people would be willing and/or able to go to work at places like assisted care facilities, nursing homes and rehab facilities, where the patients are particularly vulnerable. Then @nearwildheaven (nearwildheaven) said Des Moines, Iowa lost its municipal water supply for 12 days in 1993. Here's a very cursory look; there's a lot of information online about what happened (and didn't happen, like riots). Des Moines Register ### Photos: 25 years later, a look back at the devastating Iowa floods of 1993 These were some of the key events — and some of the most memorable photos — during the Flood of 1993. My father was still on the DMFD, and the biggest worry was what would happen if a fire broke out that was too big for a pumper truck to handle (i.e. a house fire). One industrial fire did happen, and fortunately, it was right next to some flood water, so the crew pumped water out of there, and then got their hepatitis and tetanus shots updated. So @Banksiaman (Banksiaman) replied Natural disasters - bushfire, cyclones - often knock out grid power to rural settlements and to some extent they have probably learned to harden themselves with back-up power for critical functions. An extended blackout [72 hours seems to be our line] in a city would be quite scary. Apart from all the other woes mentioned, high-rise apartments would be a problem, making a safe campfire in an apartment is not an easy thing, garage doors will be stuck shut so you can't even drive to happier times. If nothing else, the rapid spoiling of thawing food can lead to food poisonings that can't be dealt with by overwhelmed hospitals. Given that most people will chew up their mobile phone battery power tweeting and posting videos of their strife within 24 hours, even advising people of what they should do or to coordinate relief efforts will be problematic. To which @Crafter_Man (Crafter_Man) replied Ted Koppel wrote a book about the vulnerabilities of our power grid. It's called Lights Out: https://www.amazon.com/Lights-Out-Cyberattack-Unprepared-Surviving/dp/0553419986 So @JRDelirious (JRDelirious) replied Puerto Rico, 20 September 2017. Hurricane Maria. Jurisdiction slightly smaller in population and size than Connecticut. Municipalities ranging from 350K to 1800 inhabitants. Power grid 100% down: generation AND transmission and distribution. My house in a middle-class neighborhood in the middle of San Juan did not get mains power back until January 2018 and then intermittently. Some rural areas not until July of 2018. Cell service sustained in such places where the backup generators were accessible for refueling, large segments of the island lost service until that could happen. Water systems operated dependent on generator fuel and parts being made available and then not 24/7, with warning that the mains water was not suitable for drinking, for weeks or months. From the storm _itself_ as direct causal, there were around 60 recorded fatalities . But multiple studies concluded that around 3,000 people (ranges in the different studies went from 1200 to 4800) died in the aftermath above what would be the normal statistical trend, attributed in their majority to lack of power and communications resulting in unavailability or inability to access medication/procedures/services. Nobody starved, as such, though as mentioned some people may have gone down from spoiled food/contaminated water, and there was no widespread lawlessness or violence. Of course in this case, we are a population used to preparing for “normal” hurricanes which helped A LOT to prevent it becoming MUCH worse, since most families and businesses were prepared to survive the immediate hit – but that the lights were still out for like 90% of cutomers after a couple of weeks, that was the sign that something was _really_ wrong. So @dtilque (dtilque) replied There's some people who won't be hurting much, at least as far as power goes. People who have battery backup (Tesla Powerwall and similar) plus solar panels might not even notice the outage. Recent outages in Califonia and Texas have greatly increased demand for these systems. Of course, they ain't cheap, so it's mostly rich or at least well-to-do who have them. To which @md-2000 (MD) replied JRDelirious: > Puerto Rico, 20 September 2017. Hurricane Maria. > Jurisdiction slightly smaller in population and size than Connecticut. Municipalities ranging from 350K to 1800 inhabitants. > > Power grid 100% down: generation AND transmission and distribution. But you did have paper towels… nearwildheaven: > Des Moines, Iowa lost its municipal water supply for 12 days in 1993. > … > My father was still on the DMFD, and the biggest worry was what would happen if a fire broke out that was too big for a pumper truck I vaguely recall something about a flood in ND about 20 years ago, and a fire broke out in the middle of flooded downtown Grand Forks. I do wonder about food. Yes, a lot of my food requires cooking, and I have a BBQ tied to the natural gas feed, so - I guess I'd find out how much stuff can be eaten raw if you are desperate, have a lot of time and are really hungry. I assume pasta consumed as power beats starving to death, finely sliced raw meat is still food. I think by the time power was restored I'd be over having peanut butter with or without freshly defrosted bread as a snack. Then @anny_m (anny middon) said The longest we've been without power is 4 days, but it was very localized – my brother-in-law who lives less than a mile away never lost power. I was fortuitously out of town, but husband managed quite well – we shared a generator with our neighbors and were able to keep the refrigerator and freezer going. Because power outages used to be common in our area, some people have generators powered with natural gas, which is part of why I wondered what would happen to natural gas service. If a longer-term outage happened here in the summer, I think we'd be okay for a while – particularly if natural gas continues to flow. We have a decent amount of canned goods. We have a gas range, so we could still use the stove. We have a gas fireplace so if the temperature did drop we could huddle down in front of the fire. We have a couple of rain barrels, so unless we hit a long dry spell we'd have water to flush the toilets. To which @Hari_Seldon (Hari Seldon ) replied I lived through the ice storm on 1998. Freezing rain started on a Monday afternoon in early January. By Tuesday morning, my power was out. I drove to my office where there was still power and I had a couch in my office along with a sleeping bag for my wife and we stayed there one night, then drove back home to get suitcases with some changes of clothes. Then took the commuter train back to my office. Waiting for the train, we found out from a neighbor that a couple in their mid 90s had died of CO poisoning, trying to start a fire in their basement. They had refused to go to the shelter the town (a near suburb of Montreal) that had set up cots in the town hall and had, I assume generators. Anyway, we spent a second night in my office. Then on Thursday, I called a friend who lived near enough to downtown that he still had power and we decided to go there to shower. While there, the chair of my dept. called to let us know not to return because they had lost power. Our friend had by that time collected his wife's parents and another small family, but they still had a mattress on a floor that we could stay it. So we stayed there and I called home every day until the following Tuesday when the answering machine picked up so I knew we had power again. In the meantime, my friend and I went to my house and two others to drain the water. The temperature had stayed near freezing the whole time. The day we went home, there was a deep freeze. My friend had intermittent power interruptions, mostly last an hour or two and then it came back on. The water stopped for about an hour and a half and that left us seriously unhappy. The water company does have backup generators. For us, it was not too bad, but I would have been extremely unhappy to spend a week in a house with a temperature gradually heading towards freezing. And while all of Montreal Island was back in 8 or 9 days, but some of the off-island places didn't get power for a month or 6 weeks. Needless to say you couldn't buy a generator after the first day. Some people came from places up north where they did have power with truckloads of firewood that they were giving away! I never heard any problems about food. It was all about keeping warm. A friend of mine had a gas furnace that had its own built in generator, just enough to power the ignition once you lit it with a match. The pumps didn't work, but gravity flow was enough to keep his place habitable. What I had was a “dual energy” system, oil and electricity and even the oil could not operate without power. Not an experience I would want to repeat. @WildaBeast (WildaBeast) replied I lived in North Carolina in 1989, when Hurricane Hugo hit. We were without power for at least a week, probably closer to two weeks. Since it was over 30 years ago, and I was 9 years old at the time, so my memory isn't great, but here's what I recall… The first few days were pretty much a game of “use up as much as possible from the freezer before it spoils”. My parents cooked it out back on our charcoal grill and Coleman stove. I have a distinct memory of eating a frozen pizza that had been baked on the grill. Ironically grilling pizza is the trendy new thing now, but at the time I thought it was overly charred. We were on well water, actually a single well for the entire subdivision, so running water ran out pretty quickly. We got buckets of water from the nearby creek to flush the toilets with. As I recall for drinking water we went over to a friend's house which was on the city water supply and filled up some jerry cans. We went over there to shower once or twice, too. I don't recall heat being an issue. It was October in the South, so it probably wasn't that cold yet. Nothing you couldn't deal with with some extra blankets, anyway. At some point my parent's were able to borrow a generator from someone (I guess their power was restored sooner than ours or something), so we could at least power the fridge again. Honestly, as a 9 year old kid my main annoyance was that I was bored because I couldn't watch TV. I'm sure I'd remember it differently if I'd experienced it as an adult and actually had to deal with all those things myself. To which @nearwildheaven (nearwildheaven) replied I remember the Grand Forks flooding, and the huge fire that broke out at the newspaper headquarters and destroyed over 100 years of archives. They were, one way or another, able to replace most of it. After the 2020 derecho, I lost my power for 3 days, and made phambrittany@example.com. My brother packed up his family and stayed at a hotel in a nearby town that had power; they felt that they were OK without power, but their neighborhood is on a water well, and that pump didn't have any kind of battery backup. They had to boil their water for a day or two, but that was OK. After which, @Machine_Elf (Machine Elf) added anny_m: > If the outage is short-lived, water would continue to flow in areas with “city” water. But wouldn't that last only a short time? Once the water towers have emptied, isn't electricity required to pump the tanks full? Or do most city have generators for their main water pumps? If so, how long will that last? According to **a Google search** , municipal water towers are configured to hold about a day's worth of water. For an outage longer than that, they'll need electricity to pump new water up into them. As to whether they have generators or not, the answer probably varies from place to place. a reliable clean water supply is so important that the EPA actually publishes a guide to help municipalities think about how to keep water flowing during disasters: (PDF) epa.gov ### 160212-powerresilienceguide508.pdf 6.56 MB Even if they don't have permanently installed backup generators, they can probably get them. A few years ago a major wind storm knocked out power to large parts of the Detroit metro area; I visited a local grocery store and found that they had rented a massive backup generator, and were still open for business. Re: how long backup generators last, that depends on fuel supply. In disaster situations like this, the National Guard would likely step in to assure fuel gets supplied to critical systems like hospitals, water supplies, and communications. I suspect power to residences might be kept off so as to conserve generating capacity for those critical systems. So you'd have water and cell service at your house, but your freezer would thaw out. If you need electrical power for life-critical medical equipment, you'd need to go somewhere with power, e.g. an evacuation center set up for such purposes. anny_m: > If a home is on a well/septic system, will most be able to still get water through a manual pump? I have the impression that typically well water gets into the home's plumbing system by use of an electric pump. Most won't. Typical private home wells are a few hundred feet deep, and they're not set up for manual pumping. It's not physically possible to suck water up that kind of height with a straw; instead, you have to get under it and push it up. This is typically done with **an electrical pump that's lowered to the bottom of the well**. You can get hand-powered well pumps, but they have limited depth capacity. **This one can lift water a couple hundred feet** , but that listing is just for the hand-operated lever that you install at ground level. Note the red text indicating that additional parts are required, including the actual pumping cylinder that goes at that the bottom of the well and the actuating rod connecting that cylinder to your hand lever. This is not a simple installation, and if you don't have one of these on your private well when the power goes out, you're kind of screwed. Most folks on private wells rely on either a backup generator or a cache of bottled water to get them through most expected power outages. anny_m: > How about natural gas? Would it continue to flow unimpeded for the duration of the electricity outage, or is there a point in which the natural gas system will require electricity to keep going? Fluids don't move themselves by magic. Municipal natural gas systems require **compressors across the network** to drive the gas through the piping, and the compressors therein require a power supply to do that. As it happens, the very gas they are pumping is an excellent supply of such power, so a lot of these compressor stations power themselves with natural gas. It's not clear whether these stations are 100% self-sufficient in the event of an electrical outage. anny_m: > Will cellphone service continue? I know individual phones will last only as long as the batteries that power them last, but if you can recharge (through solar power maybe) could you continue to use your phone? Cell service is the only avenue of long-distance communication for some folks. According to **this NYT article** : > Most cell towers have some form of backup power. When they lose power, they resort to batteries. If the batteries run out, the towers draw power from generators, which rely on fuel. These methods can provide power for days or longer, depending on whether the generators can be refueled. So, same as municipal water systems: as long as a steady supply of fuel is available for generators, the service can be maintained. anny_m: > …how long will hospitals be able to function? As for other services, it goes back to the availability of fuel for their electrical generators. If they've got electricity, water, and natural gas, they can probably keep things going until actual medical supplies start running low. Once that happens, we'd be tapping into the **Strategic National Stockpile** , though it's not clear how long this stockpile would last in the event of an electrical outage that cripples production nationwide. anny_m: > Unfortunately, I expect it wouldn't be long before there was some serious looting. How long would police be able to operate? And again, how could you contact them? In the short term, looters are motivated by an easy prize, so historically, looting is more common in situations where homeowners and business owners are absent, e.g. during/after a hurricane. A very large-scale electrical outage such as you described in your OP would still probably leave most people at home, because where else are they going to go? This will give most looters pause, at least until a time when their need for life-sustaining items (e.g. food, water) overcomes their fear of armed conflict with the people whose homes they are trying to rob. anny_m: > All in all, how long would it be before we descend into total chaos? This is hard to answer. Even in the “large” outage in Texas last year was limited to just parts of Texas. People in those areas with the resources to get out could flee to other parts of the state, or other states, where hotels and restaurants and infrastructure were all functioning normally. For people in affected areas without the resources to get out, emergency services were still available. If local governments couldn't provide help, then help from the likes of FEMA and the National Guard came in from outside those areas. Your hypothetical features an outage that affects “most or all of the US” and lasts for a long time, which is a much bigger problem than last year's Texas outage. In terms of ability to cope, circumstances vary widely from household to household and town to town across the US. There's also the question of how you define “total chaos.” If your supply of fresh water is interrupted and you don't have much of a stockpile, you're going to get thirsty pretty quickly. Once local stores sell out (or get looted), I think you'd be looking to the National Guard to fill your bottles from their tanker trucks. I think after a couple of weeks with no relief in sight, we might start to see a breakdown of civil society in some places as resources like food and water start to become scarce and people start using violence to take (or keep) what they need to survive. After which, @MrAtoz (MrAtoz) added Machine_Elf: > Fluids don't move themselves by magic. Municipal natural gas systems require **compressors across the network** to drive the gas through the piping, and the compressors therein require a power supply to do that. As it happens, the very gas they are pumping is an excellent supply of such power, so a lot of these compressor stations power themselves with natural gas. It's not clear whether these stations are 100% self-sufficient in the event of an electrical outage. I'm not sure if this is exactly the same thing that you're talking about, but about ten years ago my area had a massive ice storm that knocked out electricity for almost everyone. My house was one of the last to have power restored, and I had no electricity for almost a week. Although I had no lights and the furnace didn't work, my house also has a ventless gas heater in one room. It continued working throughout the power outage, and I was able to mostly keep warm using it. @enipla (enipla) replied Passive solar house and heat with a propane stove. So that would just be normal for us. We always have a few months of propane. There is a small spring on our property for a water supply. I'd probably want to boil it for drinking though. Last thing you want in a situation like this is giardia or something. Be ok on food for a week or two. I'm not a hunter, but have the means to do so. Depends on the time of year for game running around. We have 4 oil lamps that put out lots of light. My Wife and I would just hunker down and play chess, cards or any other number of games which we do nearly every night anyway. Not making lite of such a situation. I'm sure it would suck big time To which @Crafter_Man (Crafter_Man) replied Machine_Elf: > Most folks on private wells rely on either a backup generator or a cache of bottled water to get them through most expected power outages. We are on a well. When the electric goes out, we instantly lose water. We also lose heat; our furnace runs on propane (from a tank installed on our property), but electricity is needed to operate the blower fan. So when the electric goes out, I simply hook our portable 3600 W generator to the house. Works like a charm. At that point, all we need is gasoline. As long as the gas stations have gas, we're good. Then @Crafter_Man (Crafter_Man) said Machine_Elf: > You can get hand-powered well pumps, but they have limited depth capacity. **This one can lift water a couple hundred feet** , but that listing is just for the hand-operated lever that you install at ground level. A much cheaper alternative is to use a well bucket. Simply lower it down into the well, grab some water, then pull it back up. Great in an emergency. However, I don't think it will work if there's a submersible pump already in the well casing, since the pipe and wires will be in the way. @velomont (velomont) replied My parents lived about 30 km south of Ottawa and they were without power for nine days. They had a gas fireplace in their living room and camped there for the duration and did a ton of BBQing. They came to our place, in Ottawa, a couple of times to shower and have coffee etc. If I recall correctly, though the gas fireplace was doing a good job, it wasn't quite good enough over nine days and they were glad when the power came back. Then @anny_m (anny middon) said Crafter_Man: > So when the electric goes out, I simply hook our portable 3600 W generator to the house. Works like a charm. At that point, all we need is gasoline. As long as the gas stations have gas, we're good. Don't gas stations need electricity to pump the fuel from their tank into yours? To which @Crafter_Man (Crafter_Man) replied Good point, if the outage is very widespread. (During the times when our electric has went out, the local gas stations were somehow unaffected.) After which, @anny_m (anny middon) added Thanks, Machine_Elf. You did an excellent job of answering my questions. I think Mr. Middon and I would probably do okay if I stockpiled some water. Not sure I want to do that, and of course gallons of bottled water seem to be missing from grocery shelves due to COVID shortages. But if we had the water and natural gas stayed operational, I could use my stovetop and french press to make coffee, so one necessity of life would be available. I always seem to have about an extra month's worth of my blood pressure meds. I think anyone who needs medicine that has a decent shelf life should probably push the timing for refills a bit so that they have a reasonable stockpile available. (I didn't set out to do that, but it did work out that way.) After which, @Machine_Elf (Machine Elf) added Crafter_Man: > A much cheaper alternative is to use a well bucket . Simply lower it down into the well, grab some water, then pull it back up. Great in an emergency. However, I don't think it will work if there's a submersible pump already in the well casing, since the pipe and wires will be in the way. I've never lived on a private well. If need arises, how easy is it to hoist the pump and its power cables out of the bore? Is that something the homeowner can do by hand? Even assuming that's a can-do, hoisting water up from a 200-foot well by hand sounds like an unpleasant task. The product you listed holds ten pounds of water, and I'm guessing it probably weighs 2-3 pounds empty. I guess it'd get you through a crisis with enough water to drink and cook with, but until the power outage is over, I'd have everybody at my house peeing outside to minimize the need for flushing toilets. After which, @kenobi_65 (kenobi_65) added Machine_Elf: > Municipal natural gas systems require **compressors across the network** to drive the gas through the piping, and the compressors therein require a power supply to do that. As it happens, the very gas they are pumping is an excellent supply of such power, so a lot of these compressor stations power themselves with natural gas. It's not clear whether these stations are 100% self-sufficient in the event of an electrical outage. My late father-in-law worked on those pipeline pumping motors for a fair amount of his career. My recollection, from what he told me, is that the pumps that they made did, indeed, use a small fraction of the natural gas in the pipeline for fuel, but as you note, I'm not sure if the pumps could run without electricity. So @enipla (enipla) replied Machine_Elf: > I've never lived on a private well. If need arises, how easy is it to hoist the pump and its power cables out of the bore? Is that something the homeowner can do by hand? I'm on a well and do all kinds of handyman stuff including building a two story addition and moving my well pressure tank into it. I would never try to drag the pump out of a well though. Your gonna need pros for that IMHO. To which @kayaker (kayaker) replied enipla: > I would never try to drag the pump out of a well though. Your gonna need pros for that IMHO. I agree. Additionally the bore of the pipe going down into the well is small, like 4 or 5 inches. To which @Machine_Elf (Machine Elf) replied enipla: > I would never try to drag the pump out of a well though. Your gonna need pros for that IMHO. What are the difficulties? Does it require a lot of care/caution, or is it just that a big-ass pump along with a few hundred feet of cable and hose weighs an awful lot? Then @Crafter_Man (Crafter_Man) said Machine_Elf: > What are the difficulties? Does it require a lot of care/caution, or is it just that a big-ass pump along with a few hundred feet of cable and hose weighs an awful lot? Our well is 80 feet deep. The pump failed in 2012. My friend does well work on the side, so I called him. He came over with a three-wheel pump puller that looked just like this. That thing made the job easy. As for your questions… The pump is cylindrical, maybe 20 inches long or so. The pipe is plastic, and semi-rigid. As we were pulling it up, the pipe went straight up in the air, and then bent down onto the grass about 15 or 20 feet away. Apparently the subtle bending of the pipe doesn't hurt it. And there's a pair of 240 V wires going to the pump, too. So @thorny_locust (thorny locust) replied Machine_Elf: > I've never lived on a private well. If need arises, how easy is it to hoist the pump and its power cables out of the bore? Is that something the homeowner can do by hand? Depends on the well; but for many homeowners, working alone, no way. For a strong person, or several people, for a lot of wells it would be possible. Basis of info: watching the pump be pulled from my 100' deep well. Looked a lot like @Crafter_Man's description, except that as I remember two repairpeople did it by hand. You'd also need the wrenches to get the cap off; and maybe some WD40, as it probably hasn't been off for some years. They should be fairly ordinary wrenches, though. By the way – after you put the whole assembly back in, you need to disinfect the well. While that pipe was lying down on the ground it could have gotten all sorts of stuff on it, and bits will wind up back down the well when it gets put back. – When I had a new well put in, having discovered that the well in use when I bought the place was producing only about a quart and a half a minute (with the result that you could take a bath or do the laundry, but if you wanted to do both you had to wait a couple of hours inbetween and in the meantime not flush the john too much), I had a hand pump put on the old well; precisely so that I'd have potable water when the power goes out. I got teased about it until, a couple of years later, the Northeast had a major ice storm. Power
{'source': 'discourse', 'url': 'https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-theres-a-long-term-electricity-outage-that-covers-a-large-area/959829', 'title': "What happens if there's a long-term electricity outage that covers a large area?", 'views': 2532, 'has_accepted_answer': False, 'word_count': 14677, 'like_count': 0, 'reply_count': 47, 'participant_count': 33, 'posts': 72, 'tags': '', 'author': '@anny_m (anny middon)', 'participants': '@anny_m (anny middon), @solost (solost), @ParallelLines, @PastTense (PastTense), @aruvqan (aruvqan), @Broomstick (Broomstick), @Bootb, @DrDeth (DrDeth), @bump (bump), @dorvann (dorvann), @mjmartin (mjmartin), @nearwildheaven (nearwildheaven), @Banksiaman (Banksiaman), @Crafter_Man (Crafter_Man), @JRDelirious (JRDelirious), @dtilque (dtilque), @md-2000 (MD), @Hari_Seldon (Hari Seldon ), @WildaBeast (WildaBeast), @Machine_Elf (Machine Elf), @MrAtoz (MrAtoz), @enipla (enipla), @velomont (velomont), @kenobi_65 (kenobi_65), @kayaker (kayaker), @thorny_locust (thorny locust), @Mama_Zappa (Mama Zappa), @pullin (pullin), @Bonum_Legatum (Bonum Legatum), @Eyebrows_0f_Doom (Eyebrows 0f Doom), @Ike_Witt (Ike Witt), @hibernicus (hibernicus), @kitap (kitap)', 'image_url': [None], 'created_at': '2022-02-20T18:12:02.015Z', 'last_posted_at': '2022-03-04T17:36:00.342Z'}