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In studying the “bubble” concept, ESPN spoke to a range of stakeholders — NBA coaches, referees and executives, infectious disease specialists, basketball operations specialists, TV producers and directors, as well as hotel and food workers — and compared their needs and concerns with the league’s thinking.
There are considerable logistical challenges to any attempt to finish the 2019-20 season. And though the situation around COVID-19 is constantly evolving, hope perseveres to eventually declare a 2020 champion. This is how an NBA bubble could work.
When it comes to restarting play, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has said he’ll follow the guidance of the Center for Disease Control and independent health advisers. And the one thing these health experts agree on is that testing is the key to everything.
There needs to be a fast, simple and reliable test. There also must be enough available public testing to avoid backlash toward the NBA for acquiring and using kits. The league expects it will need approximately 15,000 tests, sources told ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Teams were sent a memo Thursday night advising not to arrange coronavirus tests for asymptomatic players and staff.
The NBA is working with academic centers, labs and medical test developers to contribute to advances in testing for sports and the public, but nationwide testing capacity is still falling short of where health advisers the league consults say it needs to be. Until that is resolved, it is unlikely the NBA would use such resources, league sources said.
“I do think it would be disturbing to many if there was massive testing that was available to a sports league at a time when people who are in high-risk situations were still having a difficult time getting access to testing,” said Dr. Vivek Murthy, the former surgeon general who has advised the NBA on the coronavirus.
Medical experts differ on how often testing would have to be performed to maintain bubble integrity. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, has suggested sports could resume with weekly testing of athletes, as long as they are closely watched.
There could be daily monitoring of symptoms, but that has limited effectiveness because asymptomatic carriers can be contagious before showing symptoms, several infectious disease specialists told ESPN.
Still, this would leave unanswered questions. For example, the CDC says adults over 65 years old are at higher risk of severe illness or death from COVID-19. Would the NBA allow coaches such as Gregg Popovich (71) and Mike D’Antoni (68) to work?
False negatives and false positives also present issues. A return to play would need to be met by rigorous testing to account for both possibilities and to ensure the health and well-being of those inside the bubble.
The wide-ranging responses to risk tolerance from epidemiological experts highlight the complexities for the league in being able to provide guidance on a return-to-play plan or even the ability to outline a timeline.
How long would this experiment take?
When play abruptly stopped on March 11, there were 259 regular-season games remaining on the schedule. If the NBA were to complete those games and four rounds of playoffs, occupants could be in some form of a bubble for roughly three months.
Epidemiologists and infectious disease experts described the need “to create layers of protection” when returning to play. This would mean cutting the number of people to a minimum to reduce the possibility of infection and spread of the virus backed up with other measures like daily temperature checks. As a result, these experts recommend isolating participants from friends and family during this time.
This was ultimately an untenable concession. As the league evaluates options, sources said it has rejected the concept of quarantining players without family members. The hope is that advancements in testing could prevent such isolation measures.
One of them is determining how long it would take for the league’s players to get back into game shape. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Monday the league plans to reopen some of its facilities May 8, but a return to full NBA practices remains far away.
In a scenario where the NBA played eight games per day — using two courts to host concurrent games akin to summer league — the regular season could be completed in 33 days with almost no back-to-backs. A full four-round postseason, with minimal days off, would take a maximum of 55 days to complete.
An alternative framework could shorten this timeline and reduce the number of people needed to finish the season by skipping directly to the playoffs using the current standings. Bringing in 16 teams rather than 30 would cut the number of people in the bubble roughly in half and potentially cut time away from home by more than a month.
The lower number of people also would keep contact between different teams to a minimum — something medical officials advise would be prudent, as it would further reduce the chance of proliferation in the event of an infection.
Where could a bubble be established?
Several potential host locations were in contact with the NBA to discuss the concept of the bubble site before the league decided to explore options with Disney and the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, sources told ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne.
Las Vegas has been another popular idea, with MGM Grand one of the suitors to host the NBA, sources told ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Many conversations around the league have circled around the G League Showcase as a single-site template.
For the past two years, the Showcase has been held at MGM’s Mandalay Bay and has accommodated 28 teams. Under that setup, five courts are placed in a convention center — two for games and three for practices — with all of the teams staying at connected hotels under the same roof.
But experts recommend clustering teams into smaller groups as an extra safeguard against the spread of infection. Teams might need to stay and play in separate locations. One potential complication to multiple sites would be transportation. Movement via buses or other vehicles would increase the number of people needed in the bubble. This only becomes more difficult to navigate as regional pods are discussed, as the NHL is considering.
Also, holding an event of this size anywhere will require cooperation from local — and possibly state — governments as it could create more demand on local resources and open the door for the league’s return-to-play operation to be subsidized in what would likely be both an expensive and high-profile endeavor.
Who is inside a bubble?
To reduce the probability of the virus being introduced and spread within the bubble, infectious disease experts said the NBA would have to operate with as few people as possible inside it. According to team and league personnel, referees, television producers and hotel general managers, that would amount to about 1,500 people being deemed as “essential” to restart the regular season.
This scenario would go even further. Consultation with head coaches and executives led to the reduction to 28 people per team: 15 active roster spots (excluding two-way players), the head coach, three assistant coaches, three trainers/physical therapists, a strength coach, an equipment manager, a team logistics coordinator, a front-office representative, a public-relations official and a security official. The typical team travel size ranges from 40 to 50 people, growing to 75 or more in the postseason.
Aside from team needs, game operations staff would need access.
There would need to be a set of people operating the clocks, scoreboard, compiling real-time statistics and communicating with the officials and both teams. There are two reasons for them to be physically present: accuracy and real-time betting purposes. They can’t risk a delay by watching a feed prone to technological hiccups.
A public-address announcer also was deemed necessary, as he or she communicates what is happening on the court to both teams. They are used in the G League Showcase where fans are