Daily Papers

When predicting the next token in a sequence, vanilla transformers compute attention over all previous tokens, resulting in quadratic scaling of compute with sequence length. State-space models compress the entire sequence of tokens into a fixed-dimensional representation to improve efficiency, while other architectures achieve sub-quadratic complexity via low-rank projections or sparse attention patterns over the sequence. In this paper, we introduce Attamba, a novel architecture that uses state-space models to compress chunks of tokens and applies attention on these compressed key-value representations. We find that replacing key and value projections in a transformer with SSMs can improve model quality and enable flexible token chunking, resulting in 24% improved perplexity with transformer of similar KV-Cache and attention footprint, and ~4 times smaller KV-Cache and Attention FLOPs for 5% perplexity trade-off. Attamba can perform attention on chunked-sequences of variable length, enabling a smooth transition between quadratic and linear scaling, offering adaptable efficiency gains.

We present LlamaFusion, a framework for empowering pretrained text-only large language models (LLMs) with multimodal generative capabilities, enabling them to understand and generate both text and images in arbitrary sequences. LlamaFusion leverages existing Llama-3's weights for processing texts autoregressively while introducing additional and parallel transformer modules for processing images with diffusion. During training, the data from each modality is routed to its dedicated modules: modality-specific feedforward layers, query-key-value projections, and normalization layers process each modality independently, while the shared self-attention layers allow interactions across text and image features. By freezing the text-specific modules and only training the image-specific modules, LlamaFusion preserves the language capabilities of text-only LLMs while developing strong visual understanding and generation abilities. Compared to methods that pretrain multimodal generative models from scratch, our experiments demonstrate that, LlamaFusion improves image understanding by 20% and image generation by 3.6% using only 50% of the FLOPs while maintaining Llama-3's language capabilities. We also demonstrate that this framework can adapt existing vision-language models with multimodal generation ability. Overall, this framework not only leverages existing computational investments in text-only LLMs but also enables the parallel development of language and vision capabilities, presenting a promising direction for efficient multimodal model development.

The costly self-attention layers in modern Transformers require memory and compute quadratic in sequence length. Existing approximation methods usually underperform and fail to obtain significant speedups in practice. Here we present SwitchHead - a novel method that reduces both compute and memory requirements and achieves wall-clock speedup, while matching the language modeling performance of baseline Transformers with the same parameter budget. SwitchHead uses Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers for the value and output projections and requires 4 to 8 times fewer attention matrices than standard Transformers. Our novel attention can also be combined with MoE MLP layers, resulting in an efficient fully-MoE "SwitchAll" Transformer model. Our code is public.

Anti-Money Laundering (AML) is a crucial task in ensuring the integrity of financial systems. One keychallenge in AML is identifying high-risk groups based on their behavior. Unsupervised learning, particularly clustering, is a promising solution for this task. However, the use of hundreds of features todescribe behavior results in a highdimensional dataset that negatively impacts clustering performance.In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of combining clustering method agglomerative hierarchicalclustering with four dimensionality reduction techniques -Independent Component Analysis (ICA), andKernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Locality Preserving Projections (LPP)- to overcome the issue of high-dimensionality in AML data and improve clusteringresults. This study aims to provide insights into the most effective way of reducing the dimensionality ofAML data and enhance the accuracy of clustering-based AML systems. The experimental results demonstrate that KPCA outperforms other dimension reduction techniques when combined with agglomerativehierarchical clustering. This superiority is observed in the majority of situations, as confirmed by threedistinct validation indices.

We propose novel attention architectures, Multi-matrix Factorization Attention (MFA) and MFA-Key-Reuse (MFA-KR). Existing variants for standard Multi-Head Attention (MHA), including SOTA methods like MLA, fail to maintain as strong performance under stringent Key-Value cache (KV cache) constraints. MFA enhances model capacity by efficiently scaling up both the number and dimension of attention heads through low-rank matrix factorization in the Query-Key (QK) circuit. Extending MFA, MFA-KR further reduces memory requirements by repurposing the key cache as value through value projection re-parameterization. MFA's design enables strong model capacity when working under tight KV cache budget, while MFA-KR is suitable for even harsher KV cache limits with minor performance trade-off. Notably, in our extensive and large-scale experiments, the proposed architecture outperforms MLA and performs comparably to MHA, while reducing KV cache usage by up to 56% and 93.7%, respectively.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across a range of natural language processing tasks. However, their vast number of parameters introduces significant memory challenges during training, particularly when using memory-intensive optimizers like Adam. Existing memory-efficient algorithms often rely on techniques such as singular value decomposition projection or weight freezing. While these approaches help alleviate memory constraints, they generally produce suboptimal results compared to full-rank updates. In this paper, we investigate the memory-efficient method beyond low-rank training, proposing a novel solution called Gradient Wavelet Transform (GWT), which applies wavelet transforms to gradients in order to significantly reduce the memory requirements for maintaining optimizer states. We demonstrate that GWT can be seamlessly integrated with memory-intensive optimizers, enabling efficient training without sacrificing performance. Through extensive experiments on both pre-training and fine-tuning tasks, we show that GWT achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with advanced memory-efficient optimizers and full-rank approaches in terms of both memory usage and training performance.

It is notoriously difficult to train Transformers on small datasets; typically, large pre-trained models are instead used as the starting point. We explore the weights of such pre-trained Transformers (particularly for vision) to attempt to find reasons for this discrepancy. Surprisingly, we find that simply initializing the weights of self-attention layers so that they "look" more like their pre-trained counterparts allows us to train vanilla Transformers faster and to higher final accuracies, particularly on vision tasks such as CIFAR-10 and ImageNet classification, where we see gains in accuracy of over 5% and 4%, respectively. Our initialization scheme is closed form, learning-free, and very simple: we set the product of the query and key weights to be approximately the identity, and the product of the value and projection weights to approximately the negative identity. As this mimics the patterns we saw in pre-trained Transformers, we call the technique "mimetic initialization".

As AIs rapidly advance and become more agentic, the risk they pose is governed not only by their capabilities but increasingly by their propensities, including goals and values. Tracking the emergence of goals and values has proven a longstanding problem, and despite much interest over the years it remains unclear whether current AIs have meaningful values. We propose a solution to this problem, leveraging the framework of utility functions to study the internal coherence of AI preferences. Surprisingly, we find that independently-sampled preferences in current LLMs exhibit high degrees of structural coherence, and moreover that this emerges with scale. These findings suggest that value systems emerge in LLMs in a meaningful sense, a finding with broad implications. To study these emergent value systems, we propose utility engineering as a research agenda, comprising both the analysis and control of AI utilities. We uncover problematic and often shocking values in LLM assistants despite existing control measures. These include cases where AIs value themselves over humans and are anti-aligned with specific individuals. To constrain these emergent value systems, we propose methods of utility control. As a case study, we show how aligning utilities with a citizen assembly reduces political biases and generalizes to new scenarios. Whether we like it or not, value systems have already emerged in AIs, and much work remains to fully understand and control these emergent representations.

Realistic virtual humans play a crucial role in numerous industries, such as metaverse, intelligent healthcare, and self-driving simulation. But creating them on a large scale with high levels of realism remains a challenge. The utilization of deep implicit function sparks a new era of image-based 3D clothed human reconstruction, enabling pixel-aligned shape recovery with fine details. Subsequently, the vast majority of works locate the surface by regressing the deterministic implicit value for each point. However, should all points be treated equally regardless of their proximity to the surface? In this paper, we propose replacing the implicit value with an adaptive uncertainty distribution, to differentiate between points based on their distance to the surface. This simple ``value to distribution'' transition yields significant improvements on nearly all the baselines. Furthermore, qualitative results demonstrate that the models trained using our uncertainty distribution loss, can capture more intricate wrinkles, and realistic limbs. Code and models are available for research purposes at https://github.com/psyai-net/D-IF_release.

Our research aims to find the best model that uses companies projections and sector performances and how the given company fares accordingly to correctly predict equity share prices for both short and long term goals.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming diverse fields and gaining increasing influence as human proxies. This development underscores the urgent need for evaluating value orientations and understanding of LLMs to ensure their responsible integration into public-facing applications. This work introduces ValueBench, the first comprehensive psychometric benchmark for evaluating value orientations and value understanding in LLMs. ValueBench collects data from 44 established psychometric inventories, encompassing 453 multifaceted value dimensions. We propose an evaluation pipeline grounded in realistic human-AI interactions to probe value orientations, along with novel tasks for evaluating value understanding in an open-ended value space. With extensive experiments conducted on six representative LLMs, we unveil their shared and distinctive value orientations and exhibit their ability to approximate expert conclusions in value-related extraction and generation tasks. ValueBench is openly accessible at https://github.com/Value4AI/ValueBench.

While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become the predominant method for controlling language model outputs, it suffers from high computational costs and training instability. Guided decoding, especially value-guided methods, offers a cost-effective alternative by controlling outputs without re-training models. However, the accuracy of the value function is crucial for value-guided decoding, as inaccuracies can lead to suboptimal decision-making and degraded performance. Existing methods struggle with accurately estimating the optimal value function, leading to less effective control. We propose Iterative Value Function Optimization, a novel framework that addresses these limitations through two key components: Monte Carlo Value Estimation, which reduces estimation variance by exploring diverse trajectories, and Iterative On-Policy Optimization, which progressively improves value estimation through collecting trajectories from value-guided policies. Extensive experiments on text summarization, multi-turn dialogue, and instruction following demonstrate the effectiveness of value-guided decoding approaches in aligning language models. These approaches not only achieve alignment but also significantly reduce computational costs by leveraging principled value function optimization for efficient and effective control.

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to inform policies. Data collected in this article describe international trade transactions and commonly associated economic factors. Machine learning (ML) models deployed include: ARIMA, GBoosting, XGBoosting, and LightGBM for predicting future trade patterns, and K-Means clustering of countries according to economic factors. Unlike short-term and subjective (straight-line) projections and medium-term (aggre-gated) projections, ML methods provide a range of data-driven and interpretable projections for individual commodities. Models, their results, and policies are introduced and evaluated for prediction quality.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Recognizing that traditional forecasting models often rely solely on historical demand, this work investigates the potential of data-driven techniques to automatically select and integrate market indicators for improving customer demand predictions. By adopting an exploratory methodology, we integrate macroeconomic time series, such as national GDP growth, from the Eurostat database into Neural Prophet and SARIMAX forecasting models. Suitable time series are automatically identified through different state-of-the-art feature selection methods and applied to sales data from our industrial partner. It could be shown that forecasts can be significantly enhanced by incorporating external information. Notably, the potential of feature selection methods stands out, especially due to their capability for automation without expert knowledge and manual selection effort. In particular, the Forward Feature Selection technique consistently yielded superior forecasting accuracy for both SARIMAX and Neural Prophet across different company sales datasets. In the comparative analysis of the errors of the selected forecasting models, namely Neural Prophet and SARIMAX, it is observed that neither model demonstrates a significant superiority over the other.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Human values and their measurement are long-standing interdisciplinary inquiry. Recent advances in AI have sparked renewed interest in this area, with large language models (LLMs) emerging as both tools and subjects of value measurement. This work introduces Generative Psychometrics for Values (GPV), an LLM-based, data-driven value measurement paradigm, theoretically grounded in text-revealed selective perceptions. We begin by fine-tuning an LLM for accurate perception-level value measurement and verifying the capability of LLMs to parse texts into perceptions, forming the core of the GPV pipeline. Applying GPV to human-authored blogs, we demonstrate its stability, validity, and superiority over prior psychological tools. Then, extending GPV to LLM value measurement, we advance the current art with 1) a psychometric methodology that measures LLM values based on their scalable and free-form outputs, enabling context-specific measurement; 2) a comparative analysis of measurement paradigms, indicating response biases of prior methods; and 3) an attempt to bridge LLM values and their safety, revealing the predictive power of different value systems and the impacts of various values on LLM safety. Through interdisciplinary efforts, we aim to leverage AI for next-generation psychometrics and psychometrics for value-aligned AI.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

TD-learning is a foundation reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for value prediction. Critical to the accuracy of value predictions is the quality of state representations. In this work, we consider the question: how does end-to-end TD-learning impact the representation over time? Complementary to prior work, we provide a set of analysis that sheds further light on the representation dynamics under TD-learning. We first show that when the environments are reversible, end-to-end TD-learning strictly decreases the value approximation error over time. Under further assumptions on the environments, we can connect the representation dynamics with spectral decomposition over the transition matrix. This latter finding establishes fitting multiple value functions from randomly generated rewards as a useful auxiliary task for representation learning, as we empirically validate on both tabular and Atari game suites.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

Human values are crucial to human decision-making. Value pluralism is the view that multiple correct values may be held in tension with one another (e.g., when considering lying to a friend to protect their feelings, how does one balance honesty with friendship?). As statistical learners, AI systems fit to averages by default, washing out these potentially irreducible value conflicts. To improve AI systems to better reflect value pluralism, the first-order challenge is to explore the extent to which AI systems can model pluralistic human values, rights, and duties as well as their interaction. We introduce ValuePrism, a large-scale dataset of 218k values, rights, and duties connected to 31k human-written situations. ValuePrism's contextualized values are generated by GPT-4 and deemed high-quality by human annotators 91% of the time. We conduct a large-scale study with annotators across diverse social and demographic backgrounds to try to understand whose values are represented. With ValuePrism, we build Kaleido, an open, light-weight, and structured language-based multi-task model that generates, explains, and assesses the relevance and valence (i.e., support or oppose) of human values, rights, and duties within a specific context. Humans prefer the sets of values output by our system over the teacher GPT-4, finding them more accurate and with broader coverage. In addition, we demonstrate that Kaleido can help explain variability in human decision-making by outputting contrasting values. Finally, we show that Kaleido's representations transfer to other philosophical frameworks and datasets, confirming the benefit of an explicit, modular, and interpretable approach to value pluralism. We hope that our work will serve as a step to making more explicit the implicit values behind human decision-making and to steering AI systems to make decisions that are more in accordance with them.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

We propose a new approach for generative modeling based on training a neural network to be idempotent. An idempotent operator is one that can be applied sequentially without changing the result beyond the initial application, namely f(f(z))=f(z). The proposed model f is trained to map a source distribution (e.g, Gaussian noise) to a target distribution (e.g. realistic images) using the following objectives: (1) Instances from the target distribution should map to themselves, namely f(x)=x. We define the target manifold as the set of all instances that f maps to themselves. (2) Instances that form the source distribution should map onto the defined target manifold. This is achieved by optimizing the idempotence term, f(f(z))=f(z) which encourages the range of f(z) to be on the target manifold. Under ideal assumptions such a process provably converges to the target distribution. This strategy results in a model capable of generating an output in one step, maintaining a consistent latent space, while also allowing sequential applications for refinement. Additionally, we find that by processing inputs from both target and source distributions, the model adeptly projects corrupted or modified data back to the target manifold. This work is a first step towards a ``global projector'' that enables projecting any input into a target data distribution.

Intelligence is a crucial trait for species to find solutions within a limited number of trial-and-error attempts. Building on this idea, we introduce Survival Game as a framework to evaluate intelligence based on the number of failed attempts in a trial-and-error process. Fewer failures indicate higher intelligence. When the expectation and variance of failure counts are both finite, it signals the ability to consistently find solutions to new challenges, which we define as the Autonomous Level of intelligence. Using Survival Game, we comprehensively evaluate existing AI systems. Our results show that while AI systems achieve the Autonomous Level in simple tasks, they are still far from it in more complex tasks, such as vision, search, recommendation, and language. While scaling current AI technologies might help, this would come at an astronomical cost. Projections suggest that achieving the Autonomous Level for general tasks would require 10^{26} parameters. To put this into perspective, loading such a massive model requires so many H100 GPUs that their total value is 10^{7} times that of Apple Inc.'s market value. Even with Moore's Law, supporting such a parameter scale would take 70 years. This staggering cost highlights the complexity of human tasks and the inadequacies of current AI technologies. To further investigate this phenomenon, we conduct a theoretical analysis of Survival Game and its experimental results. Our findings suggest that human tasks possess a criticality property. As a result, Autonomous Level requires a deep understanding of the task's underlying mechanisms. Current AI systems, however, do not fully grasp these mechanisms and instead rely on superficial mimicry, making it difficult for them to reach an autonomous level. We believe Survival Game can not only guide the future development of AI but also offer profound insights into human intelligence.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Designing robust systems for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. Even more challenging is to build a system for constructing an optimum portfolio of stocks based on the forecasted future stock prices. We present a deep learning-based regression model built on a long-and-short-term memory network (LSTM) network that automatically scraps the web and extracts historical stock prices based on a stock's ticker name for a specified pair of start and end dates, and forecasts the future stock prices. We deploy the model on 75 significant stocks chosen from 15 critical sectors of the Indian stock market. For each of the stocks, the model is evaluated for its forecast accuracy. Moreover, the predicted values of the stock prices are used as the basis for investment decisions, and the returns on the investments are computed. Extensive results are presented on the performance of the model. The analysis of the results demonstrates the efficacy and effectiveness of the system and enables us to compare the profitability of the sectors from the point of view of the investors in the stock market.

Value functions are a central component of deep reinforcement learning (RL). These functions, parameterized by neural networks, are trained using a mean squared error regression objective to match bootstrapped target values. However, scaling value-based RL methods that use regression to large networks, such as high-capacity Transformers, has proven challenging. This difficulty is in stark contrast to supervised learning: by leveraging a cross-entropy classification loss, supervised methods have scaled reliably to massive networks. Observing this discrepancy, in this paper, we investigate whether the scalability of deep RL can also be improved simply by using classification in place of regression for training value functions. We demonstrate that value functions trained with categorical cross-entropy significantly improves performance and scalability in a variety of domains. These include: single-task RL on Atari 2600 games with SoftMoEs, multi-task RL on Atari with large-scale ResNets, robotic manipulation with Q-transformers, playing Chess without search, and a language-agent Wordle task with high-capacity Transformers, achieving state-of-the-art results on these domains. Through careful analysis, we show that the benefits of categorical cross-entropy primarily stem from its ability to mitigate issues inherent to value-based RL, such as noisy targets and non-stationarity. Overall, we argue that a simple shift to training value functions with categorical cross-entropy can yield substantial improvements in the scalability of deep RL at little-to-no cost.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has demonstrated great promise in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preference. Depending on the availability of preference data, both online and offline RLHF are active areas of investigation. A key bottleneck is understanding how to incorporate uncertainty estimation in the reward function learned from the preference data for RLHF, regardless of how the preference data is collected. While the principles of optimism or pessimism under uncertainty are well-established in standard reinforcement learning (RL), a practically-implementable and theoretically-grounded form amenable to large language models is not yet available, as standard techniques for constructing confidence intervals become intractable under arbitrary policy parameterizations. In this paper, we introduce a unified approach to online and offline RLHF -- value-incentivized preference optimization (VPO) -- which regularizes the maximum-likelihood estimate of the reward function with the corresponding value function, modulated by a sign to indicate whether the optimism or pessimism is chosen. VPO also directly optimizes the policy with implicit reward modeling, and therefore shares a simpler RLHF pipeline similar to direct preference optimization. Theoretical guarantees of VPO are provided for both online and offline settings, matching the rates of their standard RL counterparts. Moreover, experiments on text summarization and dialog verify the practicality and effectiveness of VPO.

Transformers can capture long-range dependencies using self-attention, allowing tokens to attend to all others directly. However, stacking multiple attention layers leads to attention concentration. One natural way to address this issue is to use cross-layer attention, allowing information from earlier layers to be directly accessible to later layers. However, this approach is computationally expensive. To address this problem, we propose Transformer with residual value (ResFormer) which approximates cross-layer attention through adding a residual connection from the values of the the first layer to all subsequent layers. Based on this method, one variant is the Transformer with single layer value (SVFormer), where all layers share the same value embedding from first layer, reducing the KV cache by nearly 50%. Comprehensive empirical evidence demonstrates that ResFormer mitigates attention concentration problem in deeper layers and enhances representation across most layers, outperforming the vanilla Transformer, DenseFormer, and NeuTRENO in training error as well as downstream tasks. SVFormer trains significantly faster than the vanilla Transformer and performs better than other methods like GQA and CLA, with performance influenced by sequence length and cumulative learning rate.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Deploying neural networks on microcontroller units (MCUs) presents substantial challenges due to their constrained computation and memory resources. Previous researches have explored patch-based inference as a strategy to conserve memory without sacrificing model accuracy. However, this technique suffers from severe redundant computation overhead, leading to a substantial increase in execution latency. A feasible solution to address this issue is mixed-precision quantization, but it faces the challenges of accuracy degradation and a time-consuming search time. In this paper, we propose QuantMCU, a novel patch-based inference method that utilizes value-driven mixed-precision quantization to reduce redundant computation. We first utilize value-driven patch classification (VDPC) to maintain the model accuracy. VDPC classifies patches into two classes based on whether they contain outlier values. For patches containing outlier values, we apply 8-bit quantization to the feature maps on the dataflow branches that follow. In addition, for patches without outlier values, we utilize value-driven quantization search (VDQS) on the feature maps of their following dataflow branches to reduce search time. Specifically, VDQS introduces a novel quantization search metric that takes into account both computation and accuracy, and it employs entropy as an accuracy representation to avoid additional training. VDQS also adopts an iterative approach to determine the bitwidth of each feature map to further accelerate the search process. Experimental results on real-world MCU devices show that QuantMCU can reduce computation by 2.2x on average while maintaining comparable model accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art patch-based inference methods.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) to cater to different human preferences, learning new skills, and unlearning harmful behavior is an important problem. Search-based methods, such as Best-of-N or Monte-Carlo Tree Search, are performant, but impractical for LLM adaptation due to their high inference cost. On the other hand, using Reinforcement Learning (RL) for adaptation is computationally efficient, but performs worse due to the optimization challenges in co-training the value function and the policy. We present a new framework for reward optimization, Value Augmented Sampling (VAS), that can maximize different reward functions using data sampled from only the initial, frozen LLM. VAS solves for the optimal reward-maximizing policy without co-training the policy and the value function, making the optimization stable, outperforming established baselines, such as PPO and DPO, on standard benchmarks, and achieving comparable results to Best-of-128 with lower inference cost. Unlike existing RL methods that require changing the weights of the LLM, VAS does not require access to the weights of the pre-trained LLM. Thus, it can even adapt LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT), which are available only as APIs. In addition, our algorithm unlocks the new capability of composing several rewards and controlling the extent of each one during deployment time, paving the road ahead for the future of aligned, personalized LLMs.

Value function factorization has achieved great success in multi-agent reinforcement learning by optimizing joint action-value functions through the maximization of factorized per-agent utilities. To ensure Individual-Global-Maximum property, existing works often focus on value factorization using monotonic functions, which are known to result in restricted representation expressiveness. In this paper, we analyze the limitations of monotonic factorization and present ConcaveQ, a novel non-monotonic value function factorization approach that goes beyond monotonic mixing functions and employs neural network representations of concave mixing functions. Leveraging the concave property in factorization, an iterative action selection scheme is developed to obtain optimal joint actions during training. It is used to update agents' local policy networks, enabling fully decentralized execution. The effectiveness of the proposed ConcaveQ is validated across scenarios involving multi-agent predator-prey environment and StarCraft II micromanagement tasks. Empirical results exhibit significant improvement of ConcaveQ over state-of-the-art multi-agent reinforcement learning approaches.

A fairly reliable trend in deep reinforcement learning is that the performance scales with the number of parameters, provided a complimentary scaling in amount of training data. As the appetite for large models increases, it is imperative to address, sooner than later, the potential problem of running out of high-quality demonstrations. In this case, instead of collecting only new data via costly human demonstrations or risking a simulation-to-real transfer with uncertain effects, it would be beneficial to leverage vast amounts of readily-available low-quality data. Since classical control algorithms such as behavior cloning or temporal difference learning cannot be used on reward-free or action-free data out-of-the-box, this solution warrants novel training paradigms for continuous control. We propose a simple algorithm called Diffused Value Function (DVF), which learns a joint multi-step model of the environment-robot interaction dynamics using a diffusion model. This model can be efficiently learned from state sequences (i.e., without access to reward functions nor actions), and subsequently used to estimate the value of each action out-of-the-box. We show how DVF can be used to efficiently capture the state visitation measure for multiple controllers, and show promising qualitative and quantitative results on challenging robotics benchmarks.

English Natural Language Understanding (NLU) systems have achieved great performances and even outperformed humans on benchmarks like GLUE and SuperGLUE. However, these benchmarks contain only textbook Standard American English (SAE). Other dialects have been largely overlooked in the NLP community. This leads to biased and inequitable NLU systems that serve only a sub-population of speakers. To understand disparities in current models and to facilitate more dialect-competent NLU systems, we introduce the VernAcular Language Understanding Evaluation (VALUE) benchmark, a challenging variant of GLUE that we created with a set of lexical and morphosyntactic transformation rules. In this initial release (V.1), we construct rules for 11 features of African American Vernacular English (AAVE), and we recruit fluent AAVE speakers to validate each feature transformation via linguistic acceptability judgments in a participatory design manner. Experiments show that these new dialectal features can lead to a drop in model performance. To run the transformation code and download both synthetic and gold-standard dialectal GLUE benchmarks, see https://github.com/SALT-NLP/value

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a sample efficient technique to obtain control policies, yet unavoidable modeling errors often lead performance deterioration. The model in MBRL is often solely fitted to reconstruct dynamics, state observations in particular, while the impact of model error on the policy is not captured by the training objective. This leads to a mismatch between the intended goal of MBRL, enabling good policy and value learning, and the target of the loss function employed in practice, future state prediction. Naive intuition would suggest that value-aware model learning would fix this problem and, indeed, several solutions to this objective mismatch problem have been proposed based on theoretical analysis. However, they tend to be inferior in practice to commonly used maximum likelihood (MLE) based approaches. In this paper we propose the Value-gradient weighted Model Learning (VaGraM), a novel method for value-aware model learning which improves the performance of MBRL in challenging settings, such as small model capacity and the presence of distracting state dimensions. We analyze both MLE and value-aware approaches and demonstrate how they fail to account for exploration and the behavior of function approximation when learning value-aware models and highlight the additional goals that must be met to stabilize optimization in the deep learning setting. We verify our analysis by showing that our loss function is able to achieve high returns on the Mujoco benchmark suite while being more robust than maximum likelihood based approaches.

Large ride-hailing platforms, such as DiDi, Uber and Lyft, connect tens of thousands of vehicles in a city to millions of ride demands throughout the day, providing great promises for improving transportation efficiency through the tasks of order dispatching and vehicle repositioning. Existing studies, however, usually consider the two tasks in simplified settings that hardly address the complex interactions between the two, the real-time fluctuations between supply and demand, and the necessary coordinations due to the large-scale nature of the problem. In this paper we propose a unified value-based dynamic learning framework (V1D3) for tackling both tasks. At the center of the framework is a globally shared value function that is updated continuously using online experiences generated from real-time platform transactions. To improve the sample-efficiency and the robustness, we further propose a novel periodic ensemble method combining the fast online learning with a large-scale offline training scheme that leverages the abundant historical driver trajectory data. This allows the proposed framework to adapt quickly to the highly dynamic environment, to generalize robustly to recurrent patterns and to drive implicit coordinations among the population of managed vehicles. Extensive experiments based on real-world datasets show considerably improvements over other recently proposed methods on both tasks. Particularly, V1D3 outperforms the first prize winners of both dispatching and repositioning tracks in the KDD Cup 2020 RL competition, achieving state-of-the-art results on improving both total driver income and user experience related metrics.

Key-value (KV) caching plays an essential role in accelerating decoding for transformer-based autoregressive large language models (LLMs). However, the amount of memory required to store the KV cache can become prohibitive at long sequence lengths and large batch sizes. Since the invention of the transformer, two of the most effective interventions discovered for reducing the size of the KV cache have been Multi-Query Attention (MQA) and its generalization, Grouped-Query Attention (GQA). MQA and GQA both modify the design of the attention block so that multiple query heads can share a single key/value head, reducing the number of distinct key/value heads by a large factor while only minimally degrading accuracy. In this paper, we show that it is possible to take Multi-Query Attention a step further by also sharing key and value heads between adjacent layers, yielding a new attention design we call Cross-Layer Attention (CLA). With CLA, we find that it is possible to reduce the size of the KV cache by another 2x while maintaining nearly the same accuracy as unmodified MQA. In experiments training 1B- and 3B-parameter models from scratch, we demonstrate that CLA provides a Pareto improvement over the memory/accuracy tradeoffs which are possible with traditional MQA, enabling inference with longer sequence lengths and larger batch sizes than would otherwise be possible

Key-Value (KV) cache has become a bottleneck of LLMs for long-context generation. Despite the numerous efforts in this area, the optimization for the decoding phase is generally ignored. However, we believe such optimization is crucial, especially for long-output generation tasks based on the following two observations: (i) Excessive compression during the prefill phase, which requires specific full context impairs the comprehension of the reasoning task; (ii) Deviation of heavy hitters occurs in the reasoning tasks with long outputs. Therefore, SCOPE, a simple yet efficient framework that separately performs KV cache optimization during the prefill and decoding phases, is introduced. Specifically, the KV cache during the prefill phase is preserved to maintain the essential information, while a novel strategy based on sliding is proposed to select essential heavy hitters for the decoding phase. Memory usage and memory transfer are further optimized using adaptive and discontinuous strategies. Extensive experiments on LongGenBench show the effectiveness and generalization of SCOPE and its compatibility as a plug-in to other prefill-only KV compression methods.

Despite significant advancements in vision-language models (VLMs), there lacks effective approaches to enhance response quality by scaling inference-time computation. This capability is known to be a core step towards the self-improving models in recent large language model studies. In this paper, we present Vision Value Model (VisVM) that can guide VLM inference-time search to generate responses with better visual comprehension. Specifically, VisVM not only evaluates the generated sentence quality in the current search step, but also anticipates the quality of subsequent sentences that may result from the current step, thus providing a long-term value. In this way, VisVM steers VLMs away from generating sentences prone to hallucinations or insufficient detail, thereby producing higher quality responses. Experimental results demonstrate that VisVM-guided search significantly enhances VLMs' ability to generate descriptive captions with richer visual details and fewer hallucinations, compared with greedy decoding and search methods with other visual reward signals. Furthermore, we find that self-training the model with the VisVM-guided captions improve VLM's performance across a wide range of multimodal benchmarks, indicating the potential for developing self-improving VLMs. Our value model and code are available at https://github.com/si0wang/VisVM.

The advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have been hindered by their substantial sizes, which necessitate LLM compression methods for practical deployment. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) offers a promising solution for LLM compression. However, state-of-the-art SVD-based LLM compression methods have two key limitations: truncating smaller singular values may lead to higher compression loss, and the lack of update on the remaining model parameters after SVD truncation. In this work, we propose SVD-LLM, a new SVD-based LLM compression method that addresses the limitations of existing methods. SVD-LLM incorporates a truncation-aware data whitening strategy to ensure a direct mapping between singular values and compression loss. Moreover, SVD-LLM adopts a layer-wise closed-form model parameter update strategy to compensate for accuracy degradation caused by SVD truncation. We evaluate SVD-LLM on a total of 11 datasets and seven models from three different LLM families at four different scales. Our results demonstrate the superiority of SVD-LLM over state-of-the-arts, especially at high model compression ratios. The source code is available at https://github.com/AIoT-MLSys-Lab/SVD-LLM.

We propose a Transformer-based approach for information extraction from digitized handwritten documents. Our approach combines, in a single model, the different steps that were so far performed by separate models: feature extraction, handwriting recognition and named entity recognition. We compare this integrated approach with traditional two-stage methods that perform handwriting recognition before named entity recognition, and present results at different levels: line, paragraph, and page. Our experiments show that attention-based models are especially interesting when applied on full pages, as they do not require any prior segmentation step. Finally, we show that they are able to learn from key-value annotations: a list of important words with their corresponding named entities. We compare our models to state-of-the-art methods on three public databases (IAM, ESPOSALLES, and POPP) and outperform previous performances on all three datasets.

Classical models of memory in psychology and neuroscience rely on similarity-based retrieval of stored patterns, where similarity is a function of retrieval cues and the stored patterns. While parsimonious, these models do not allow distinct representations for storage and retrieval, despite their distinct computational demands. Key-value memory systems, in contrast, distinguish representations used for storage (values) and those used for retrieval (keys). This allows key-value memory systems to optimize simultaneously for fidelity in storage and discriminability in retrieval. We review the computational foundations of key-value memory, its role in modern machine learning systems, related ideas from psychology and neuroscience, applications to a number of empirical puzzles, and possible biological implementations.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) using an implicit reward model has proven to be an effective alternative to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for fine-tuning preference aligned large language models (LLMs). However, the overall preference annotations of responses do not fully capture the fine-grained quality of model outputs in complex multi-step reasoning tasks, such as mathematical reasoning. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel algorithm called Step-level Value Preference Optimization (SVPO). Our approach employs Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to automatically annotate step-level preferences for multi-step reasoning. Furthermore, from the perspective of learning-to-rank, we train an explicit value model to replicate the behavior of the implicit reward model, complementing standard preference optimization. This value model enables the LLM to generate higher reward responses with minimal cost during inference. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both in-domain and out-of-domain mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/MARIO-Math-Reasoning/Super_MARIO.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tackles sequential decision-making problems by creating agents that interacts with their environment. However, existing algorithms often view these problem as static, focusing on point estimates for model parameters to maximize expected rewards, neglecting the stochastic dynamics of agent-environment interactions and the critical role of uncertainty quantification. Our research leverages the Kalman filtering paradigm to introduce a novel and scalable sampling algorithm called Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) for deep reinforcement learning. This algorithm, grounded in Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC), efficiently draws samples from the posterior distribution of deep neural network parameters. Under mild conditions, we prove that the posterior samples generated by the LKTD algorithm converge to a stationary distribution. This convergence not only enables us to quantify uncertainties associated with the value function and model parameters but also allows us to monitor these uncertainties during policy updates throughout the training phase. The LKTD algorithm paves the way for more robust and adaptable reinforcement learning approaches.

Recently, low-resource dialogue state tracking (DST) has received increasing attention. First obtaining state values then based on values to generate slot types has made great progress in this task. However, obtaining state values is still an under-studied problem. Existing extraction-based approaches cannot capture values that require the understanding of context and are not generalizable either. To address these issues, we propose a novel State VAlue Generation based framework (SVAG), decomposing DST into state value generation and domain slot generation. Specifically, we propose to generate state values and use self-training to further improve state value generation. Moreover, we design an estimator aiming at detecting incomplete generation and incorrect generation for pseudo-labeled data selection during self-training. Experimental results on the MultiWOZ 2.1 dataset show that our method which has only less than 1 billion parameters achieves state-of-the-art performance under the data ratio settings of 5%, 10%, and 25% when limited to models under 100 billion parameters. Compared to models with more than 100 billion parameters, SVAG still reaches competitive results.

Transformers have emerged as the prevailing standard solution for various AI tasks, including computer vision and natural language processing. The widely adopted Query, Key, and Value formulation (QKV) has played a significant role in this. Nevertheless, no research has examined the essentiality of these three components for transformer performance. Therefore, we conducted an evaluation of the key-value formulation (KV), which generates symmetric attention maps, along with an asymmetric version that incorporates a 2D positional encoding into the attention matrix. Remarkably, this transformer requires fewer parameters and computation than the original one. Through experiments encompassing three task types -- synthetics (such as reversing or sorting a list), vision (mnist or cifar classification), and NLP (character generation and translation) -- we discovered that the KV transformer occasionally outperforms the QKV transformer. However, it also exhibits instances of underperformance compared to QKV, making it challenging to draw a definitive conclusion. Nonetheless, we consider the reported results to be encouraging and anticipate that they may pave the way for more efficient transformers in the future.

Auxiliary tasks improve the representations learned by deep reinforcement learning agents. Analytically, their effect is reasonably well understood; in practice, however, their primary use remains in support of a main learning objective, rather than as a method for learning representations. This is perhaps surprising given that many auxiliary tasks are defined procedurally, and hence can be treated as an essentially infinite source of information about the environment. Based on this observation, we study the effectiveness of auxiliary tasks for learning rich representations, focusing on the setting where the number of tasks and the size of the agent's network are simultaneously increased. For this purpose, we derive a new family of auxiliary tasks based on the successor measure. These tasks are easy to implement and have appealing theoretical properties. Combined with a suitable off-policy learning rule, the result is a representation learning algorithm that can be understood as extending Mahadevan & Maggioni (2007)'s proto-value functions to deep reinforcement learning -- accordingly, we call the resulting object proto-value networks. Through a series of experiments on the Arcade Learning Environment, we demonstrate that proto-value networks produce rich features that may be used to obtain performance comparable to established algorithms, using only linear approximation and a small number (~4M) of interactions with the environment's reward function.

Dialect differences caused by regional, social, and economic factors cause performance discrepancies for many groups of language technology users. Inclusive and equitable language technology must critically be dialect invariant, meaning that performance remains constant over dialectal shifts. Current systems often fall short of this ideal since they are designed and tested on a single dialect: Standard American English (SAE). We introduce a suite of resources for evaluating and achieving English dialect invariance. The resource is called Multi-VALUE, a controllable rule-based translation system spanning 50 English dialects and 189 unique linguistic features. Multi-VALUE maps SAE to synthetic forms of each dialect. First, we use this system to stress tests question answering, machine translation, and semantic parsing. Stress tests reveal significant performance disparities for leading models on non-standard dialects. Second, we use this system as a data augmentation technique to improve the dialect robustness of existing systems. Finally, we partner with native speakers of Chicano and Indian English to release new gold-standard variants of the popular CoQA task. To execute the transformation code, run model checkpoints, and download both synthetic and gold-standard dialectal benchmark datasets, see http://value-nlp.org.

We expect the generalization error to improve with more samples from a similar task, and to deteriorate with more samples from an out-of-distribution (OOD) task. In this work, we show a counter-intuitive phenomenon: the generalization error of a task can be a non-monotonic function of the number of OOD samples. As the number of OOD samples increases, the generalization error on the target task improves before deteriorating beyond a threshold. In other words, there is value in training on small amounts of OOD data. We use Fisher's Linear Discriminant on synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks such as MNIST, CIFAR-10, CINIC-10, PACS and DomainNet to demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon. In the idealistic setting where we know which samples are OOD, we show that these non-monotonic trends can be exploited using an appropriately weighted objective of the target and OOD empirical risk. While its practical utility is limited, this does suggest that if we can detect OOD samples, then there may be ways to benefit from them. When we do not know which samples are OOD, we show how a number of go-to strategies such as data-augmentation, hyper-parameter optimization, and pre-training are not enough to ensure that the target generalization error does not deteriorate with the number of OOD samples in the dataset.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

Neural task-oriented dialogue systems often struggle to smoothly interface with a knowledge base. In this work, we seek to address this problem by proposing a new neural dialogue agent that is able to effectively sustain grounded, multi-domain discourse through a novel key-value retrieval mechanism. The model is end-to-end differentiable and does not need to explicitly model dialogue state or belief trackers. We also release a new dataset of 3,031 dialogues that are grounded through underlying knowledge bases and span three distinct tasks in the in-car personal assistant space: calendar scheduling, weather information retrieval, and point-of-interest navigation. Our architecture is simultaneously trained on data from all domains and significantly outperforms a competitive rule-based system and other existing neural dialogue architectures on the provided domains according to both automatic and human evaluation metrics.

Directly reading documents and being able to answer questions from them is an unsolved challenge. To avoid its inherent difficulty, question answering (QA) has been directed towards using Knowledge Bases (KBs) instead, which has proven effective. Unfortunately KBs often suffer from being too restrictive, as the schema cannot support certain types of answers, and too sparse, e.g. Wikipedia contains much more information than Freebase. In this work we introduce a new method, Key-Value Memory Networks, that makes reading documents more viable by utilizing different encodings in the addressing and output stages of the memory read operation. To compare using KBs, information extraction or Wikipedia documents directly in a single framework we construct an analysis tool, WikiMovies, a QA dataset that contains raw text alongside a preprocessed KB, in the domain of movies. Our method reduces the gap between all three settings. It also achieves state-of-the-art results on the existing WikiQA benchmark.

Recent large language model applications, such as Retrieval-Augmented Generation and chatbots, have led to an increased need to process longer input contexts. However, this requirement is hampered by inherent limitations. Architecturally, models are constrained by a context window defined during training. Additionally, processing extensive texts requires substantial GPU memory. We propose a novel approach, Finch, to compress the input context by leveraging the pre-trained model weights of the self-attention. Given a prompt and a long text, Finch iteratively identifies the most relevant Key (K) and Value (V) pairs over chunks of the text conditioned on the prompt. Only such pairs are stored in the KV cache, which, within the space constrained by the context window, ultimately contains a compressed version of the long text. Our proposal enables models to consume large inputs even with high compression (up to 93x) while preserving semantic integrity without the need for fine-tuning.

Pre-training on Internet data has proven to be a key ingredient for broad generalization in many modern ML systems. What would it take to enable such capabilities in robotic reinforcement learning (RL)? Offline RL methods, which learn from datasets of robot experience, offer one way to leverage prior data into the robotic learning pipeline. However, these methods have a "type mismatch" with video data (such as Ego4D), the largest prior datasets available for robotics, since video offers observation-only experience without the action or reward annotations needed for RL methods. In this paper, we develop a system for leveraging large-scale human video datasets in robotic offline RL, based entirely on learning value functions via temporal-difference learning. We show that value learning on video datasets learns representations that are more conducive to downstream robotic offline RL than other approaches for learning from video data. Our system, called V-PTR, combines the benefits of pre-training on video data with robotic offline RL approaches that train on diverse robot data, resulting in value functions and policies for manipulation tasks that perform better, act robustly, and generalize broadly. On several manipulation tasks on a real WidowX robot, our framework produces policies that greatly improve over prior methods. Our video and additional details can be found at https://dibyaghosh.com/vptr/

Auto-regressive inference of transformers benefit greatly from Key-Value (KV) caching, but can lead to major memory bottlenecks as model size, batch size, and sequence length grow at scale. We introduce Multi-Layer Key-Value (MLKV) sharing, a novel approach extending KV sharing across transformer layers to reduce memory usage beyond what was possible with Multi-Query Attention (MQA) and Grouped-Query Attention (GQA). Evaluations on various NLP benchmarks and inference metrics using uptrained Pythia-160M variants demonstrate that MLKV significantly reduces memory usage with minimal performance loss, reducing KV cache size down to a factor of 6x compared to MQA. These results highlight MLKV's potential for efficient deployment of transformer models at scale. We provide code at https://github.com/zaydzuhri/pythia-mlkv

Large language models (LLMs) are shown to possess a wealth of actionable knowledge that can be extracted for robot manipulation in the form of reasoning and planning. Despite the progress, most still rely on pre-defined motion primitives to carry out the physical interactions with the environment, which remains a major bottleneck. In this work, we aim to synthesize robot trajectories, i.e., a dense sequence of 6-DoF end-effector waypoints, for a large variety of manipulation tasks given an open-set of instructions and an open-set of objects. We achieve this by first observing that LLMs excel at inferring affordances and constraints given a free-form language instruction. More importantly, by leveraging their code-writing capabilities, they can interact with a visual-language model (VLM) to compose 3D value maps to ground the knowledge into the observation space of the agent. The composed value maps are then used in a model-based planning framework to zero-shot synthesize closed-loop robot trajectories with robustness to dynamic perturbations. We further demonstrate how the proposed framework can benefit from online experiences by efficiently learning a dynamics model for scenes that involve contact-rich interactions. We present a large-scale study of the proposed method in both simulated and real-robot environments, showcasing the ability to perform a large variety of everyday manipulation tasks specified in free-form natural language. Project website: https://voxposer.github.io

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) across various regions underscores the urgent need to evaluate their alignment with human values. Current benchmarks, however, fall short of effectively uncovering safety vulnerabilities in LLMs. Despite numerous models achieving high scores and 'topping the chart' in these evaluations, there is still a significant gap in LLMs' deeper alignment with human values and achieving genuine harmlessness. To this end, this paper proposes a value alignment benchmark named Flames, which encompasses both common harmlessness principles and a unique morality dimension that integrates specific Chinese values such as harmony. Accordingly, we carefully design adversarial prompts that incorporate complex scenarios and jailbreaking methods, mostly with implicit malice. By prompting 17 mainstream LLMs, we obtain model responses and rigorously annotate them for detailed evaluation. Our findings indicate that all the evaluated LLMs demonstrate relatively poor performance on Flames, particularly in the safety and fairness dimensions. We also develop a lightweight specified scorer capable of scoring LLMs across multiple dimensions to efficiently evaluate new models on the benchmark. The complexity of Flames has far exceeded existing benchmarks, setting a new challenge for contemporary LLMs and highlighting the need for further alignment of LLMs. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/AIFlames/Flames.

Robots' ability to follow language instructions and execute diverse 3D tasks is vital in robot learning. Traditional imitation learning-based methods perform well on seen tasks but struggle with novel, unseen ones due to variability. Recent approaches leverage large foundation models to assist in understanding novel tasks, thereby mitigating this issue. However, these methods lack a task-specific learning process, which is essential for an accurate understanding of 3D environments, often leading to execution failures. In this paper, we introduce GravMAD, a sub-goal-driven, language-conditioned action diffusion framework that combines the strengths of imitation learning and foundation models. Our approach breaks tasks into sub-goals based on language instructions, allowing auxiliary guidance during both training and inference. During training, we introduce Sub-goal Keypose Discovery to identify key sub-goals from demonstrations. Inference differs from training, as there are no demonstrations available, so we use pre-trained foundation models to bridge the gap and identify sub-goals for the current task. In both phases, GravMaps are generated from sub-goals, providing flexible 3D spatial guidance compared to fixed 3D positions. Empirical evaluations on RLBench show that GravMAD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, with a 28.63% improvement on novel tasks and a 13.36% gain on tasks encountered during training. These results demonstrate GravMAD's strong multi-task learning and generalization in 3D manipulation. Video demonstrations are available at: https://gravmad.github.io.

Agents significantly enhance the capabilities of standalone Large Language Models (LLMs) by perceiving environments, making decisions, and executing actions. However, LLM agents still face challenges in tasks that require multiple decision-making steps. Estimating the value of actions in specific tasks is difficult when intermediate actions are neither appropriately rewarded nor penalized. In this paper, we propose leveraging a task-relevant Q-value model to guide action selection. Specifically, we first collect decision-making trajectories annotated with step-level Q values via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and construct preference data. We then use another LLM to fit these preferences through step-level Direct Policy Optimization (DPO), which serves as the Q-value model. During inference, at each decision-making step, LLM agents select the action with the highest Q value before interacting with the environment. We apply our method to various open-source and API-based LLM agents, demonstrating that Q-value models significantly improve their performance. Notably, the performance of the agent built with Phi-3-mini-4k-instruct improved by 103% on WebShop and 75% on HotPotQA when enhanced with Q-value models, even surpassing GPT-4o-mini. Additionally, Q-value models offer several advantages, such as generalization to different LLM agents and seamless integration with existing prompting strategies.

Ethical reasoning is a crucial skill for Large Language Models (LLMs). However, moral values are not universal, but rather influenced by language and culture. This paper explores how three prominent LLMs -- GPT-4, ChatGPT, and Llama2-70B-Chat -- perform ethical reasoning in different languages and if their moral judgement depend on the language in which they are prompted. We extend the study of ethical reasoning of LLMs by Rao et al. (2023) to a multilingual setup following their framework of probing LLMs with ethical dilemmas and policies from three branches of normative ethics: deontology, virtue, and consequentialism. We experiment with six languages: English, Spanish, Russian, Chinese, Hindi, and Swahili. We find that GPT-4 is the most consistent and unbiased ethical reasoner across languages, while ChatGPT and Llama2-70B-Chat show significant moral value bias when we move to languages other than English. Interestingly, the nature of this bias significantly vary across languages for all LLMs, including GPT-4.

The widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various tasks and fields has necessitated the alignment of these models with human values and preferences. Given various approaches of human value alignment, ranging from Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), to constitutional learning, etc. there is an urgent need to understand the scope and nature of human values injected into these models before their release. There is also a need for model alignment without a costly large scale human annotation effort. We propose UniVaR, a high-dimensional representation of human value distributions in LLMs, orthogonal to model architecture and training data. Trained from the value-relevant output of eight multilingual LLMs and tested on the output from four multilingual LLMs, namely LlaMA2, ChatGPT, JAIS and Yi, we show that UniVaR is a powerful tool to compare the distribution of human values embedded in different LLMs with different langauge sources. Through UniVaR, we explore how different LLMs prioritize various values in different languages and cultures, shedding light on the complex interplay between human values and language modeling.

Deep learning is commonly used to reconstruct HDR images from LDR images. LDR stack-based methods are used for single-image HDR reconstruction, generating an HDR image from a deep learning-generated LDR stack. However, current methods generate the stack with predetermined exposure values (EVs), which may limit the quality of HDR reconstruction. To address this, we propose the continuous exposure value representation (CEVR), which uses an implicit function to generate LDR images with arbitrary EVs, including those unseen during training. Our approach generates a continuous stack with more images containing diverse EVs, significantly improving HDR reconstruction. We use a cycle training strategy to supervise the model in generating continuous EV LDR images without corresponding ground truths. Our CEVR model outperforms existing methods, as demonstrated by experimental results.

End-to-end reinforcement learning on images showed significant progress in the recent years. Data-based approach leverage data augmentation and domain randomization while representation learning methods use auxiliary losses to learn task-relevant features. Yet, reinforcement still struggles in visually diverse environments full of distractions and spurious noise. In this work, we tackle the problem of robust visual control at its core and present VIBR (View-Invariant Bellman Residuals), a method that combines multi-view training and invariant prediction to reduce out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization gap for RL based visuomotor control. Our model-free approach improve baselines performances without the need of additional representation learning objectives and with limited additional computational cost. We show that VIBR outperforms existing methods on complex visuo-motor control environment with high visual perturbation. Our approach achieves state-of the-art results on the Distracting Control Suite benchmark, a challenging benchmark still not solved by current methods, where we evaluate the robustness to a number of visual perturbators, as well as OOD generalization and extrapolation capabilities.

Offline reinforcement learning faces a significant challenge of value over-estimation due to the distributional drift between the dataset and the current learned policy, leading to learning failure in practice. The common approach is to incorporate a penalty term to reward or value estimation in the Bellman iterations. Meanwhile, to avoid extrapolation on out-of-distribution (OOD) states and actions, existing methods focus on conservative Q-function estimation. In this paper, we propose Conservative State Value Estimation (CSVE), a new approach that learns conservative V-function via directly imposing penalty on OOD states. Compared to prior work, CSVE allows more effective in-data policy optimization with conservative value guarantees. Further, we apply CSVE and develop a practical actor-critic algorithm in which the critic does the conservative value estimation by additionally sampling and penalizing the states around the dataset, and the actor applies advantage weighted updates extended with state exploration to improve the policy. We evaluate in classic continual control tasks of D4RL, showing that our method performs better than the conservative Q-function learning methods and is strongly competitive among recent SOTA methods.

The rise of large language models (LLMs) for visually rich document understanding (VRDU) has kindled a need for prompt-response, document-based datasets. As annotating new datasets from scratch is labor-intensive, the existing literature has generated prompt-response datasets from available resources using simple templates. For the case of key information extraction (KIE), one of the most common VRDU tasks, past work has typically employed the template "What is the value for the {key}?". However, given the variety of questions encountered in the wild, simple and uniform templates are insufficient for creating robust models in research and industrial contexts. In this work, we present K2Q, a diverse collection of five datasets converted from KIE to a prompt-response format using a plethora of bespoke templates. The questions in K2Q can span multiple entities and be extractive or boolean. We empirically compare the performance of seven baseline generative models on K2Q with zero-shot prompting. We further compare three of these models when training on K2Q versus training on simpler templates to motivate the need of our work. We find that creating diverse and intricate KIE questions enhances the performance and robustness of VRDU models. We hope this work encourages future studies on data quality for generative model training.

Process Reward Modeling (PRM) is critical for complex reasoning and decision-making tasks where the accuracy of intermediate steps significantly influences the overall outcome. Existing PRM approaches, primarily framed as classification problems, employ cross-entropy loss to independently evaluate each step's correctness. This method can lead to suboptimal reward distribution and does not adequately address the interdependencies among steps. To address these limitations, we introduce the Process Q-value Model (PQM), a novel framework that redefines PRM in the context of a Markov Decision Process. PQM optimizes Q-value rankings based on a novel comparative loss function, enhancing the model's ability to capture the intricate dynamics among sequential decisions. This approach provides a more granular and theoretically grounded methodology for process rewards. Our extensive empirical evaluations across various sampling policies, language model backbones, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks show that PQM outperforms classification-based PRMs. The effectiveness of the comparative loss function is highlighted in our comprehensive ablation studies, confirming PQM's practical efficacy and theoretical advantage.

As we increasingly seek guidance from LLMs for decision-making in daily life, many of these decisions are not clear-cut and depend significantly on the personal values and ethical standards of the users. We present DailyDilemmas, a dataset of 1,360 moral dilemmas encountered in everyday life. Each dilemma includes two possible actions and with each action, the affected parties and human values invoked. Based on these dilemmas, we consolidated a set of human values across everyday topics e.g., interpersonal relationships, workplace, and environmental issues. We evaluated LLMs on these dilemmas to determine what action they will take and the values represented by these actions. Then, we analyzed these values through the lens of five popular theories inspired by sociology, psychology and philosophy. These theories are: World Value Survey, Moral Foundation Theory, Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, Aristotle's Virtues, and Plutchik Wheel of Emotion. We find that LLMs are most aligned with the self-expression over survival values in terms of World Value Survey, care over loyalty in Moral Foundation Theory. Interestingly, we find large preferences differences in models for some core values such as truthfulness e.g., Mixtral-8x7B model tends to neglect it by 9.7% while GPT-4-turbo model tends to select it by 9.4%. We also study the recent guidance released by OpenAI (ModelSpec), and Anthropic (Constitutional AI) to understand how their released principles reflect their actual value prioritization when facing nuanced moral reasoning in daily-life settings. We find that end users cannot effectively steer such prioritization using system prompts.

We demonstrate that large language models (LLMs) exhibit consistent value orientations despite adopting diverse personas, revealing a persistent inertia in their responses that remains stable across the variety of roles they are prompted to assume. To systematically explore this phenomenon, we introduce the role-play-at-scale methodology, which involves prompting LLMs with randomized, diverse personas and analyzing the macroscopic trend of their responses. Unlike previous works that simply feed these questions to LLMs as if testing human subjects, our role-play-at-scale methodology diagnoses inherent tendencies in a systematic and scalable manner by: (1) prompting the model to act in different random personas and (2) asking the same question multiple times for each random persona. This approach reveals consistent patterns in LLM responses across diverse role-play scenarios, indicating deeply encoded inherent tendencies. Our findings contribute to the discourse on value alignment in foundation models and demonstrate the efficacy of role-play-at-scale as a diagnostic tool for uncovering encoded biases in LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive problem-solving capabilities in mathematics through step-by-step reasoning chains. However, they are susceptible to reasoning errors that impact the quality of subsequent reasoning chains and the final answer due to language models' autoregressive token-by-token generating nature. Recent works have proposed adopting external verifiers to guide the generation of reasoning paths, but existing works utilize models that have been trained with step-by-step labels to assess the correctness of token-by-token reasoning chains. Consequently, they struggle to recognize discriminative details of tokens within a reasoning path and lack the ability to evaluate whether an intermediate reasoning path is on a promising track toward the correct final answer. To amend the lack of sound and token-grained math-verification signals, we devise a novel training scheme for verifiers that apply token-level supervision with the expected cumulative reward (i.e., value). Furthermore, we propose a practical formulation of the cumulative reward by reducing it to finding the probability of future correctness of the final answer and thereby enabling the empirical estimation of the value. Experimental results on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that Token-Supervised Value Model (TVM) can outperform step-by-step verifiers on GSM8K and MATH with Mistral and Llama.

This paper presents a systematic defense of large language model (LLM) hallucinations or 'confabulations' as a potential resource instead of a categorically negative pitfall. The standard view is that confabulations are inherently problematic and AI research should eliminate this flaw. In this paper, we argue and empirically demonstrate that measurable semantic characteristics of LLM confabulations mirror a human propensity to utilize increased narrativity as a cognitive resource for sense-making and communication. In other words, it has potential value. Specifically, we analyze popular hallucination benchmarks and reveal that hallucinated outputs display increased levels of narrativity and semantic coherence relative to veridical outputs. This finding reveals a tension in our usually dismissive understandings of confabulation. It suggests, counter-intuitively, that the tendency for LLMs to confabulate may be intimately associated with a positive capacity for coherent narrative-text generation.

Visual instruction tuning is the key to building multimodal large language models (MLLMs), which greatly improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in vision scenario. However, existing MLLMs mostly rely on a mixture of multiple highly diverse visual instruction datasets for training (even more than a million instructions), which may introduce data redundancy. To investigate this issue, we conduct a series of empirical studies, which reveal a significant redundancy within the visual instruction datasets, and show that greatly reducing the amount of several instruction dataset even do not affect the performance. Based on the findings, we propose a new data selection approach TIVE, to eliminate redundancy within visual instruction data. TIVE first estimates the task-level and instance-level value of the visual instructions based on computed gradients. Then, according to the estimated values, TIVE determines the task proportion within the visual instructions, and selects representative instances to compose a smaller visual instruction subset for training. Experiments on LLaVA-1.5 show that our approach using only about 7.5% data can achieve comparable performance as the full-data fine-tuned model across seven benchmarks, even surpassing it on four of the benchmarks. Our code and data will be publicly released.

Discrete-action reinforcement learning algorithms often falter in tasks with high-dimensional discrete action spaces due to the vast number of possible actions. A recent advancement leverages value-decomposition, a concept from multi-agent reinforcement learning, to tackle this challenge. This study delves deep into the effects of this value-decomposition, revealing that whilst it curtails the over-estimation bias inherent to Q-learning algorithms, it amplifies target variance. To counteract this, we present an ensemble of critics to mitigate target variance. Moreover, we introduce a regularisation loss that helps to mitigate the effects that exploratory actions in one dimension can have on the value of optimal actions in other dimensions. Our novel algorithm, REValueD, tested on discretised versions of the DeepMind Control Suite tasks, showcases superior performance, especially in the challenging humanoid and dog tasks. We further dissect the factors influencing REValueD's performance, evaluating the significance of the regularisation loss and the scalability of REValueD with increasing sub-actions per dimension.

E-commerce applications such as faceted product search or product comparison are based on structured product descriptions like attribute/value pairs. The vendors on e-commerce platforms do not provide structured product descriptions but describe offers using titles or descriptions. To process such offers, it is necessary to extract attribute/value pairs from textual product attributes. State-of-the-art attribute/value extraction techniques rely on pre-trained language models (PLMs), such as BERT. Two major drawbacks of these models for attribute/value extraction are that (i) the models require significant amounts of task-specific training data and (ii) the fine-tuned models face challenges in generalizing to attribute values not included in the training data. This paper explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) as a training data-efficient and robust alternative to PLM-based attribute/value extraction methods. We consider hosted LLMs, such as GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, as well as open-source LLMs based on Llama2. We evaluate the models in a zero-shot scenario and in a scenario where task-specific training data is available. In the zero-shot scenario, we compare various prompt designs for representing information about the target attributes of the extraction. In the scenario with training data, we investigate (i) the provision of example attribute values, (ii) the selection of in-context demonstrations, and (iii) the fine-tuning of GPT-3.5. Our experiments show that GPT-4 achieves an average F1-score of 85% on the two evaluation datasets while the best PLM-based techniques perform on average 5% worse using the same amount of training data. GPT-4 achieves a 10% higher F1-score than the best open-source LLM. The fine-tuned GPT-3.5 model reaches a similar performance as GPT-4 while being significantly more cost-efficient.

Reinforcement learning (RL) over text representations can be effective for finding high-value policies that can search over graphs. However, RL requires careful structuring of the search space and algorithm design to be effective in this challenge. Through extensive experiments, we explore how different design choices for text grammar and algorithmic choices for training can affect an RL policy's ability to generate molecules with desired properties. We arrive at a new RL-based molecular design algorithm (ChemRLformer) and perform a thorough analysis using 25 molecule design tasks, including computationally complex protein docking simulations. From this analysis, we discover unique insights in this problem space and show that ChemRLformer achieves state-of-the-art performance while being more straightforward than prior work by demystifying which design choices are actually helpful for text-based molecule design.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the agent aims to learn the optimal policy based on the data collected by a behavior policy, has attracted increasing attention in recent years. While offline RL with linear function approximation has been extensively studied with optimal results achieved under certain assumptions, many works shift their interest to offline RL with non-linear function approximation. However, limited works on offline RL with non-linear function approximation have instance-dependent regret guarantees. In this paper, we propose an oracle-efficient algorithm, dubbed Pessimistic Nonlinear Least-Square Value Iteration (PNLSVI), for offline RL with non-linear function approximation. Our algorithmic design comprises three innovative components: (1) a variance-based weighted regression scheme that can be applied to a wide range of function classes, (2) a subroutine for variance estimation, and (3) a planning phase that utilizes a pessimistic value iteration approach. Our algorithm enjoys a regret bound that has a tight dependency on the function class complexity and achieves minimax optimal instance-dependent regret when specialized to linear function approximation. Our work extends the previous instance-dependent results within simpler function classes, such as linear and differentiable function to a more general framework.

Momentum is known to accelerate the convergence of gradient descent in strongly convex settings without stochastic gradient noise. In stochastic optimization, such as training neural networks, folklore suggests that momentum may help deep learning optimization by reducing the variance of the stochastic gradient update, but previous theoretical analyses do not find momentum to offer any provable acceleration. Theoretical results in this paper clarify the role of momentum in stochastic settings where the learning rate is small and gradient noise is the dominant source of instability, suggesting that SGD with and without momentum behave similarly in the short and long time horizons. Experiments show that momentum indeed has limited benefits for both optimization and generalization in practical training regimes where the optimal learning rate is not very large, including small- to medium-batch training from scratch on ImageNet and fine-tuning language models on downstream tasks.

Leveraging learned strategies in unfamiliar scenarios is fundamental to human intelligence. In reinforcement learning, rationally reusing the policies acquired from other tasks or human experts is critical for tackling problems that are difficult to learn from scratch. In this work, we present a framework called Selective Myopic bEhavior Control~(SMEC), which results from the insight that the short-term behaviors of prior policies are sharable across tasks. By evaluating the behaviors of prior policies via a hybrid value function architecture, SMEC adaptively aggregates the sharable short-term behaviors of prior policies and the long-term behaviors of the task policy, leading to coordinated decisions. Empirical results on a collection of manipulation and locomotion tasks demonstrate that SMEC outperforms existing methods, and validate the ability of SMEC to leverage related prior policies.

We consider a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem for maximum value reward function under maximum value and index feedback. This is a new feedback structure that lies in between commonly studied semi-bandit and full-bandit feedback structures. We propose an algorithm and provide a regret bound for problem instances with stochastic arm outcomes according to arbitrary distributions with finite supports. The regret analysis rests on considering an extended set of arms, associated with values and probabilities of arm outcomes, and applying a smoothness condition. Our algorithm achieves a O((k/Delta)log(T)) distribution-dependent and a O(T) distribution-independent regret where k is the number of arms selected in each round, Delta is a distribution-dependent reward gap and T is the horizon time. Perhaps surprisingly, the regret bound is comparable to previously-known bound under more informative semi-bandit feedback. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through experimental results.

Deep Reinforcement Learning has shown significant progress in extracting useful representations from high-dimensional inputs albeit using hand-crafted auxiliary tasks and pseudo rewards. Automatically learning such representations in an object-centric manner geared towards control and fast adaptation remains an open research problem. In this paper, we introduce a method that tries to discover meaningful features from objects, translating them to temporally coherent "question" functions and leveraging the subsequent learned general value functions for control. We compare our approach with state-of-the-art techniques alongside other ablations and show competitive performance in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Finally, we also investigate the discovered general value functions and through qualitative analysis show that the learned representations are not only interpretable but also, centered around objects that are invariant to changes across tasks facilitating fast adaptation.

We study the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset, which has important applications in many domains. The key to missing value imputation is to capture the data distribution with incomplete samples and impute the missing values accordingly. In this paper, by leveraging the fact that any two batches of data with missing values come from the same data distribution, we propose to impute the missing values of two batches of samples by transforming them into a latent space through deep invertible functions and matching them distributionally. To learn the transformations and impute the missing values simultaneously, a simple and well-motivated algorithm is proposed. Our algorithm has fewer hyperparameters to fine-tune and generates high-quality imputations regardless of how missing values are generated. Extensive experiments over a large number of datasets and competing benchmark algorithms show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Many real-world multi-label prediction problems involve set-valued predictions that must satisfy specific requirements dictated by downstream usage. We focus on a typical scenario where such requirements, separately encoding value and cost, compete with each other. For instance, a hospital might expect a smart diagnosis system to capture as many severe, often co-morbid, diseases as possible (the value), while maintaining strict control over incorrect predictions (the cost). We present a general pipeline, dubbed as FavMac, to maximize the value while controlling the cost in such scenarios. FavMac can be combined with almost any multi-label classifier, affording distribution-free theoretical guarantees on cost control. Moreover, unlike prior works, it can handle real-world large-scale applications via a carefully designed online update mechanism, which is of independent interest. Our methodological and theoretical contributions are supported by experiments on several healthcare tasks and synthetic datasets - FavMac furnishes higher value compared with several variants and baselines while maintaining strict cost control. Our code is available at https://github.com/zlin7/FavMac

The Shapley value is arguably the most popular approach for assigning a meaningful contribution value to players in a cooperative game, which has recently been used intensively in explainable artificial intelligence. The meaningfulness is due to axiomatic properties that only the Shapley value satisfies, which, however, comes at the expense of an exact computation growing exponentially with the number of agents. Accordingly, a number of works are devoted to the efficient approximation of the Shapley values, most of them revolve around the notion of an agent's marginal contribution. In this paper, we propose with SVARM and Stratified SVARM two parameter-free and domain-independent approximation algorithms based on a representation of the Shapley value detached from the notion of marginal contributions. We prove unmatched theoretical guarantees regarding their approximation quality and provide empirical results including synthetic games as well as common explainability use cases comparing ourselves with state-of-the-art methods.

Retrosynthesis, which aims to find a route to synthesize a target molecule from commercially available starting materials, is a critical task in drug discovery and materials design. Recently, the combination of ML-based single-step reaction predictors with multi-step planners has led to promising results. However, the single-step predictors are mostly trained offline to optimize the single-step accuracy, without considering complete routes. Here, we leverage reinforcement learning (RL) to improve the single-step predictor, by using a tree-shaped MDP to optimize complete routes. Specifically, we propose a novel online training algorithm, called Planning with Dual Value Networks (PDVN), which alternates between the planning phase and updating phase. In PDVN, we construct two separate value networks to predict the synthesizability and cost of molecules, respectively. To maintain the single-step accuracy, we design a two-branch network structure for the single-step predictor. On the widely-used USPTO dataset, our PDVN algorithm improves the search success rate of existing multi-step planners (e.g., increasing the success rate from 85.79% to 98.95% for Retro*, and reducing the number of model calls by half while solving 99.47% molecules for RetroGraph). Additionally, PDVN helps find shorter synthesis routes (e.g., reducing the average route length from 5.76 to 4.83 for Retro*, and from 5.63 to 4.78 for RetroGraph).

Meta-gradient Reinforcement Learning (RL) allows agents to self-tune their hyper-parameters in an online fashion during training. In this paper, we identify a bias in the meta-gradient of current meta-gradient RL approaches. This bias comes from using the critic that is trained using the meta-learned discount factor for the advantage estimation in the outer objective which requires a different discount factor. Because the meta-learned discount factor is typically lower than the one used in the outer objective, the resulting bias can cause the meta-gradient to favor myopic policies. We propose a simple solution to this issue: we eliminate this bias by using an alternative, outer value function in the estimation of the outer loss. To obtain this outer value function we add a second head to the critic network and train it alongside the classic critic, using the outer loss discount factor. On an illustrative toy problem, we show that the bias can cause catastrophic failure of current meta-gradient RL approaches, and show that our proposed solution fixes it. We then apply our method to a more complex environment and demonstrate that fixing the meta-gradient bias can significantly improve performance.

A Transformer-based deep direct sampling method is proposed for electrical impedance tomography, a well-known severely ill-posed nonlinear boundary value inverse problem. A real-time reconstruction is achieved by evaluating the learned inverse operator between carefully designed data and the reconstructed images. An effort is made to give a specific example to a fundamental question: whether and how one can benefit from the theoretical structure of a mathematical problem to develop task-oriented and structure-conforming deep neural networks? Specifically, inspired by direct sampling methods for inverse problems, the 1D boundary data in different frequencies are preprocessed by a partial differential equation-based feature map to yield 2D harmonic extensions as different input channels. Then, by introducing learnable non-local kernels, the direct sampling is recast to a modified attention mechanism. The new method achieves superior accuracy over its predecessors and contemporary operator learners and shows robustness to noises in benchmarks. This research shall strengthen the insights that, despite being invented for natural language processing tasks, the attention mechanism offers great flexibility to be modified in conformity with the a priori mathematical knowledge, which ultimately leads to the design of more physics-compatible neural architectures.

Deep neural networks perform well on classification tasks where data streams are i.i.d. and labeled data is abundant. Challenges emerge with non-stationary training data streams such as continual learning. One powerful approach that has addressed this challenge involves pre-training of large encoders on volumes of readily available data, followed by task-specific tuning. Given a new task, however, updating the weights of these encoders is challenging as a large number of weights needs to be fine-tuned, and as a result, they forget information about the previous tasks. In the present work, we propose a model architecture to address this issue, building upon a discrete bottleneck containing pairs of separate and learnable key-value codes. Our paradigm will be to encode; process the representation via a discrete bottleneck; and decode. Here, the input is fed to the pre-trained encoder, the output of the encoder is used to select the nearest keys, and the corresponding values are fed to the decoder to solve the current task. The model can only fetch and re-use a sparse number of these key-value pairs during inference, enabling localized and context-dependent model updates. We theoretically investigate the ability of the discrete key-value bottleneck to minimize the effect of learning under distribution shifts and show that it reduces the complexity of the hypothesis class. We empirically verify the proposed method under challenging class-incremental learning scenarios and show that the proposed model - without any task boundaries - reduces catastrophic forgetting across a wide variety of pre-trained models, outperforming relevant baselines on this task.

The PRObabilistic Value-Added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass (M_*), star formation rate ({rm SFR}), stellar metallicity (Z_{rm MW}), and stellar age (t_{rm age, MW}), for >10 million galaxies of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, Bayesian inference framework, and methodology of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-GALAXIES semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true galaxy properties of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true M_*, {rm SFR}, Z_{rm MW}, and t_{rm age, MW} of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors. They impose a {rm SFR}{>}10^{-1} M_odot/{rm yr} lower bound on {rm SFR}, a {sim}0.3 dex bias on log Z_{rm MW} for galaxies with low spectral signal-to-noise, and t_{rm age, MW} < 8,{rm Gyr} upper bound on stellar age. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and provide a probabilistic value-added galaxy catalog that will extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses.

Human sciences have traditionally relied on human reasoning and intelligence to infer knowledge from a wide range of sources, such as oral and written narrations, reports, and traditions. Here we develop an extension of classical social network analysis approaches to incorporate the concept of meaning in each actor, as a mean to quantify and infer further knowledge from the original source of the network. This extension is based on a new affinity function, the semantic affinity, that establishes fuzzy-like relationships between the different actors in the network, using combinations of affinity functions. We also propose a new heuristic algorithm based on the shortest capacity problem to compute this affinity function. We use these concept of meaning and semantic affinity to analyze and compare the gods and heroes from three different classical mythologies: Greek, Celtic and Nordic. We study the relationships of each individual mythology and those of common structure that is formed when we fuse the three of them. We show a strong connection between the Celtic and Nordic gods and that Greeks put more emphasis on heroic characters rather than deities. Our approach provides a technique to highlight and quantify important relationships in the original domain of the network not deducible from its structural properties.

Shapley values are widely used to explain black-box models, but they are costly to calculate because they require many model evaluations. We introduce FastSHAP, a method for estimating Shapley values in a single forward pass using a learned explainer model. FastSHAP amortizes the cost of explaining many inputs via a learning approach inspired by the Shapley value's weighted least squares characterization, and it can be trained using standard stochastic gradient optimization. We compare FastSHAP to existing estimation approaches, revealing that it generates high-quality explanations with orders of magnitude speedup.

Real-world data often exhibits long-tailed distributions with heavy class imbalance, posing great challenges for deep recognition models. We identify a persisting dilemma on the value of labels in the context of imbalanced learning: on the one hand, supervision from labels typically leads to better results than its unsupervised counterparts; on the other hand, heavily imbalanced data naturally incurs "label bias" in the classifier, where the decision boundary can be drastically altered by the majority classes. In this work, we systematically investigate these two facets of labels. We demonstrate, theoretically and empirically, that class-imbalanced learning can significantly benefit in both semi-supervised and self-supervised manners. Specifically, we confirm that (1) positively, imbalanced labels are valuable: given more unlabeled data, the original labels can be leveraged with the extra data to reduce label bias in a semi-supervised manner, which greatly improves the final classifier; (2) negatively however, we argue that imbalanced labels are not useful always: classifiers that are first pre-trained in a self-supervised manner consistently outperform their corresponding baselines. Extensive experiments on large-scale imbalanced datasets verify our theoretically grounded strategies, showing superior performance over previous state-of-the-arts. Our intriguing findings highlight the need to rethink the usage of imbalanced labels in realistic long-tailed tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/YyzHarry/imbalanced-semi-self.

AI systems are notorious for their fragility; minor input changes can potentially cause major output swings. When such systems are deployed in critical areas like finance, the consequences of their uncertain behavior could be severe. In this paper, we focus on multi-modal time-series forecasting, where imprecision due to noisy or incorrect data can lead to erroneous predictions, impacting stakeholders such as analysts, investors, and traders. Recently, it has been shown that beyond numeric data, graphical transformations can be used with advanced visual models to achieve better performance. In this context, we introduce a rating methodology to assess the robustness of Multi-Modal Time-Series Forecasting Models (MM-TSFM) through causal analysis, which helps us understand and quantify the isolated impact of various attributes on the forecasting accuracy of MM-TSFM. We apply our novel rating method on a variety of numeric and multi-modal forecasting models in a large experimental setup (six input settings of control and perturbations, ten data distributions, time series from six leading stocks in three industries over a year of data, and five time-series forecasters) to draw insights on robust forecasting models and the context of their strengths. Within the scope of our study, our main result is that multi-modal (numeric + visual) forecasting, which was found to be more accurate than numeric forecasting in previous studies, can also be more robust in diverse settings. Our work will help different stakeholders of time-series forecasting understand the models` behaviors along trust (robustness) and accuracy dimensions to select an appropriate model for forecasting using our rating method, leading to improved decision-making.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

The task of vision-based 3D occupancy prediction aims to reconstruct 3D geometry and estimate its semantic classes from 2D color images, where the 2D-to-3D view transformation is an indispensable step. Most previous methods conduct forward projection, such as BEVPooling and VoxelPooling, both of which map the 2D image features into 3D grids. However, the current grid representing features within a certain height range usually introduces many confusing features that belong to other height ranges. To address this challenge, we present Deep Height Decoupling (DHD), a novel framework that incorporates explicit height prior to filter out the confusing features. Specifically, DHD first predicts height maps via explicit supervision. Based on the height distribution statistics, DHD designs Mask Guided Height Sampling (MGHS) to adaptively decouple the height map into multiple binary masks. MGHS projects the 2D image features into multiple subspaces, where each grid contains features within reasonable height ranges. Finally, a Synergistic Feature Aggregation (SFA) module is deployed to enhance the feature representation through channel and spatial affinities, enabling further occupancy refinement. On the popular Occ3D-nuScenes benchmark, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance even with minimal input frames. Source code is released at https://github.com/yanzq95/DHD.

Most value function learning algorithms in reinforcement learning are based on the mean squared (projected) Bellman error. However, squared errors are known to be sensitive to outliers, both skewing the solution of the objective and resulting in high-magnitude and high-variance gradients. To control these high-magnitude updates, typical strategies in RL involve clipping gradients, clipping rewards, rescaling rewards, or clipping errors. While these strategies appear to be related to robust losses -- like the Huber loss -- they are built on semi-gradient update rules which do not minimize a known loss. In this work, we build on recent insights reformulating squared Bellman errors as a saddlepoint optimization problem and propose a saddlepoint reformulation for a Huber Bellman error and Absolute Bellman error. We start from a formalization of robust losses, then derive sound gradient-based approaches to minimize these losses in both the online off-policy prediction and control settings. We characterize the solutions of the robust losses, providing insight into the problem settings where the robust losses define notably better solutions than the mean squared Bellman error. Finally, we show that the resulting gradient-based algorithms are more stable, for both prediction and control, with less sensitivity to meta-parameters.

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process (LLM-PR). The LLMs' estimates varied widely, ranging from 3% (Reka- Core) to 47.6% (GPT-4o), with a median of 12.5%. These estimates closely align with a recent expert survey that projected a 10% likelihood of AGI by 2027, underscoring the relevance of LLMs in forecasting complex, speculative scenarios. The LLM-PR process demonstrated strong reliability, evidenced by a high Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC = 0.79), reflecting notable consistency in scoring across the models. Among the models, Pplx-70b-online emerged as the top performer, while Gemini-1.5-pro-api ranked the lowest. A cross-comparison with external benchmarks, such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, revealed that LLM rankings remained consistent across different evaluation methods, suggesting that existing benchmarks may not encapsulate some of the skills relevant for AGI prediction. We further explored the use of weighting schemes based on external benchmarks, optimizing the alignment of LLMs' predictions with human expert forecasts. This analysis led to the development of a new, 'AGI benchmark' designed to highlight performance differences in AGI-related tasks. Our findings offer insights into LLMs' capabilities in speculative, interdisciplinary forecasting tasks and emphasize the growing need for innovative evaluation frameworks for assessing AI performance in complex, uncertain real-world scenarios.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Program synthesis aims to create accurate, executable code from natural language descriptions. This field has leveraged the power of reinforcement learning (RL) in conjunction with large language models (LLMs), significantly enhancing code generation capabilities. This integration focuses on directly optimizing functional correctness, transcending conventional supervised losses. While current literature predominantly favors policy-based algorithms, attributes of program synthesis suggest a natural compatibility with value-based methods. This stems from rich collection of off-policy programs developed by human programmers, and the straightforward verification of generated programs through automated unit testing (i.e. easily obtainable rewards in RL language). Diverging from the predominant use of policy-based algorithms, our work explores the applicability of value-based approaches, leading to the development of our B-Coder (pronounced Bellman coder). Yet, training value-based methods presents challenges due to the enormous search space inherent to program synthesis. To this end, we propose an initialization protocol for RL agents utilizing pre-trained LMs and a conservative Bellman operator to reduce training complexities. Moreover, we demonstrate how to leverage the learned value functions as a dual strategy to post-process generated programs. Our empirical evaluations demonstrated B-Coder's capability in achieving state-of-the-art performance compared with policy-based methods. Remarkably, this achievement is reached with minimal reward engineering effort, highlighting the effectiveness of value-based RL, independent of reward designs.

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

We present a Spades bidding algorithm that is superior to recreational human players and to publicly available bots. Like in Bridge, the game of Spades is composed of two independent phases, bidding and playing. This paper focuses on the bidding algorithm, since this phase holds a precise challenge: based on the input, choose the bid that maximizes the agent's winning probability. Our Bidding-in-Spades (BIS) algorithm heuristically determines the bidding strategy by comparing the expected utility of each possible bid. A major challenge is how to estimate these expected utilities. To this end, we propose a set of domain-specific heuristics, and then correct them via machine learning using data from real-world players. The \BIS algorithm we present can be attached to any playing algorithm. It beats rule-based bidding bots when all use the same playing component. When combined with a rule-based playing algorithm, it is superior to the average recreational human.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Projection maintenance is one of the core data structure tasks. Efficient data structures for projection maintenance have led to recent breakthroughs in many convex programming algorithms. In this work, we further extend this framework to the Kronecker product structure. Given a constraint matrix {sf A} and a positive semi-definite matrix Win R^{ntimes n} with a sparse eigenbasis, we consider the task of maintaining the projection in the form of {sf B}^top({sf B}{sf B}^top)^{-1}{sf B}, where {sf B}={sf A}(Wotimes I) or {sf B}={sf A}(W^{1/2}otimes W^{1/2}). At each iteration, the weight matrix W receives a low rank change and we receive a new vector h. The goal is to maintain the projection matrix and answer the query {sf B}^top({sf B}{sf B}^top)^{-1}{sf B}h with good approximation guarantees. We design a fast dynamic data structure for this task and it is robust against an adaptive adversary. Following the beautiful and pioneering work of [Beimel, Kaplan, Mansour, Nissim, Saranurak and Stemmer, STOC'22], we use tools from differential privacy to reduce the randomness required by the data structure and further improve the running time.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

There is a strong link between the general concept of intelligence and the ability to collect and use information. The theory of Bayes-adaptive exploration offers an attractive optimality framework for training machines to perform complex information gathering tasks. However, the computational complexity of the resulting optimal control problem has limited the diffusion of the theory to mainstream deep AI research. In this paper we exploit the inherent mathematical structure of Bayes-adaptive problems in order to dramatically simplify the problem by making the reward structure denser while simultaneously decoupling the learning of exploitation and exploration policies. The key to this simplification comes from the novel concept of cross-value (i.e. the value of being in an environment while acting optimally according to another), which we use to quantify the value of currently available information. This results in a new denser reward structure that "cashes in" all future rewards that can be predicted from the current information state. In a set of experiments we show that the approach makes it possible to learn challenging information gathering tasks without the use of shaping and heuristic bonuses in situations where the standard RL algorithms fail.

KV-Cache compression methods generally sample a KV-Cache of effectual tokens or quantize it into lower bits. However, these methods cannot exploit the redundancy of the hidden dimension of KV tensors. This paper investigates a unique hidden dimension approach called Palu, a novel KV-Cache compression framework that utilizes low-rank projection. Palu decomposes the linear layers into low-rank matrices, caches the smaller intermediate states, and reconstructs the full keys and values on the fly. To improve accuracy, compression rate, and efficiency, Palu further encompasses (1) a medium-grained low-rank decomposition scheme, (2) an efficient rank search algorithm, (3) a low-rank-aware quantization algorithm, and (4) matrix fusion with optimized GPU kernels. Our extensive experiments with popular LLMs show that Palu can compress KV-Cache by more than 91.25% while maintaining a significantly better accuracy (up to 1.19 lower perplexity) than state-of-the-art KV-Cache quantization methods at a similar or even higher memory usage. When compressing KV-Cache for 50%, Palu delivers up to 1.61x end-to-end speedup for the attention module. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/shadowpa0327/Palu.