Daily Papers

Transformer-based deep neural networks have revolutionized the field of molecular-related prediction tasks by treating molecules as symbolic sequences. These models have been successfully applied in various organic chemical applications by pretraining them with extensive compound libraries and subsequently fine-tuning them with smaller in-house datasets for specific tasks. However, many conventional methods primarily focus on single molecules, with limited exploration of pretraining for reactions involving multiple molecules. In this paper, we propose ReactionT5, a novel model that leverages pretraining on the Open Reaction Database (ORD), a publicly available large-scale resource. We further fine-tune this model for yield prediction and product prediction tasks, demonstrating its impressive performance even with limited fine-tuning data compared to traditional models. The pre-trained ReactionT5 model is publicly accessible on the Hugging Face platform.

Fake engagement is one of the significant problems in Online Social Networks (OSNs) which is used to increase the popularity of an account in an inorganic manner. The detection of fake engagement is crucial because it leads to loss of money for businesses, wrong audience targeting in advertising, wrong product predictions systems, and unhealthy social network environment. This study is related with the detection of fake and automated accounts which leads to fake engagement on Instagram. Prior to this work, there were no publicly available dataset for fake and automated accounts. For this purpose, two datasets have been published for the detection of fake and automated accounts. For the detection of these accounts, machine learning algorithms like Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks are applied. Additionally, for the detection of automated accounts, cost sensitive genetic algorithm is proposed to handle the unnatural bias in the dataset. To deal with the unevenness problem in the fake dataset, Smote-nc algorithm is implemented. For the automated and fake account detection datasets, 86% and 96% classification accuracies are obtained, respectively.

A capsule is a group of neurons whose activity vector represents the instantiation parameters of a specific type of entity such as an object or an object part. We use the length of the activity vector to represent the probability that the entity exists and its orientation to represent the instantiation parameters. Active capsules at one level make predictions, via transformation matrices, for the instantiation parameters of higher-level capsules. When multiple predictions agree, a higher level capsule becomes active. We show that a discrimininatively trained, multi-layer capsule system achieves state-of-the-art performance on MNIST and is considerably better than a convolutional net at recognizing highly overlapping digits. To achieve these results we use an iterative routing-by-agreement mechanism: A lower-level capsule prefers to send its output to higher level capsules whose activity vectors have a big scalar product with the prediction coming from the lower-level capsule.

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and retention campaigns, predicting potential churners stands as a primary objective. In volatile sectors like fantasy sports, unpredictable factors such as international sports events can influence even regular spending habits. Consequently, while transaction history and user-product interaction are valuable in predicting churn, they demand deep domain knowledge and intricate feature engineering. Additionally, feature development for churn prediction systems can be resource-intensive, particularly in production settings serving 200m+ users, where inference pipelines largely focus on feature engineering. This paper conducts an exhaustive study on predicting user churn using historical data. We aim to create a model forecasting customer churn likelihood, facilitating businesses in comprehending attrition trends and formulating effective retention plans. Our approach treats churn prediction as multivariate time series classification, demonstrating that combining user activity and deep neural networks yields remarkable results for churn prediction in complex business-to-customer contexts.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.

Retrosynthesis planning poses a formidable challenge in the organic chemical industry, particularly in pharmaceuticals. Single-step retrosynthesis prediction, a crucial step in the planning process, has witnessed a surge in interest in recent years due to advancements in AI for science. Various deep learning-based methods have been proposed for this task in recent years, incorporating diverse levels of additional chemical knowledge dependency. This paper introduces UAlign, a template-free graph-to-sequence pipeline for retrosynthesis prediction. By combining graph neural networks and Transformers, our method can more effectively leverage the inherent graph structure of molecules. Based on the fact that the majority of molecule structures remain unchanged during a chemical reaction, we propose a simple yet effective SMILES alignment technique to facilitate the reuse of unchanged structures for reactant generation. Extensive experiments show that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art template-free and semi-template-based approaches. Importantly, Our template-free method achieves effectiveness comparable to, or even surpasses, established powerful template-based methods. Scientific contribution: We present a novel graph-to-sequence template-free retrosynthesis prediction pipeline that overcomes the limitations of Transformer-based methods in molecular representation learning and insufficient utilization of chemical information. We propose an unsupervised learning mechanism for establishing product-atom correspondence with reactant SMILES tokens, achieving even better results than supervised SMILES alignment methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UAlign significantly outperforms state-of-the-art template-free methods and rivals or surpasses template-based approaches, with up to 5\% (top-5) and 5.4\% (top-10) increased accuracy over the strongest baseline.

E-commerce platforms should provide detailed product descriptions (attribute values) for effective product search and recommendation. However, attribute value information is typically not available for new products. To predict unseen attribute values, large quantities of labeled training data are needed to train a traditional supervised learning model. Typically, it is difficult, time-consuming, and costly to manually label large quantities of new product profiles. In this paper, we propose a novel method to efficiently and effectively extract unseen attribute values from new products in the absence of labeled data (zero-shot setting). We propose HyperPAVE, a multi-label zero-shot attribute value extraction model that leverages inductive inference in heterogeneous hypergraphs. In particular, our proposed technique constructs heterogeneous hypergraphs to capture complex higher-order relations (i.e. user behavior information) to learn more accurate feature representations for graph nodes. Furthermore, our proposed HyperPAVE model uses an inductive link prediction mechanism to infer future connections between unseen nodes. This enables HyperPAVE to identify new attribute values without the need for labeled training data. We conduct extensive experiments with ablation studies on different categories of the MAVE dataset. The results demonstrate that our proposed HyperPAVE model significantly outperforms existing classification-based, generation-based large language models for attribute value extraction in the zero-shot setting.

This paper introduces a structured memory which can be easily integrated into a neural network. The memory is very large by design and significantly increases the capacity of the architecture, by up to a billion parameters with a negligible computational overhead. Its design and access pattern is based on product keys, which enable fast and exact nearest neighbor search. The ability to increase the number of parameters while keeping the same computational budget lets the overall system strike a better trade-off between prediction accuracy and computation efficiency both at training and test time. This memory layer allows us to tackle very large scale language modeling tasks. In our experiments we consider a dataset with up to 30 billion words, and we plug our memory layer in a state-of-the-art transformer-based architecture. In particular, we found that a memory augmented model with only 12 layers outperforms a baseline transformer model with 24 layers, while being twice faster at inference time. We release our code for reproducibility purposes.

Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) has recently emerged as a promising tool for many agricultural applications; however, the technology cannot be directly used in a real-time system due to the extensive time needed to process large volumes of data. Consequently, the development of a simple, compact, and cost-effective imaging system is not possible with the current HSI systems. Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to reconstruct hyperspectral images from RGB images through deep learning for agricultural applications. Specifically, this study used Hyperspectral Convolutional Neural Network - Dense (HSCNN-D) to reconstruct hyperspectral images from RGB images for predicting soluble solid content (SSC) in sweet potatoes. The algorithm accurately reconstructed the hyperspectral images from RGB images, with the resulting spectra closely matching the ground-truth. The partial least squares regression (PLSR) model based on reconstructed spectra outperformed the model using the full spectral range, demonstrating its potential for SSC prediction in sweet potatoes. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning-based hyperspectral image reconstruction as a low-cost, efficient tool for various agricultural uses.

Advertising posters, a form of information presentation, combine visual and linguistic modalities. Creating a poster involves multiple steps and necessitates design experience and creativity. This paper introduces AutoPoster, a highly automatic and content-aware system for generating advertising posters. With only product images and titles as inputs, AutoPoster can automatically produce posters of varying sizes through four key stages: image cleaning and retargeting, layout generation, tagline generation, and style attribute prediction. To ensure visual harmony of posters, two content-aware models are incorporated for layout and tagline generation. Moreover, we propose a novel multi-task Style Attribute Predictor (SAP) to jointly predict visual style attributes. Meanwhile, to our knowledge, we propose the first poster generation dataset that includes visual attribute annotations for over 76k posters. Qualitative and quantitative outcomes from user studies and experiments substantiate the efficacy of our system and the aesthetic superiority of the generated posters compared to other poster generation methods.

Since the introduction of Vision Transformer (ViT), patchification has long been regarded as a de facto image tokenization approach for plain visual architectures. By compressing the spatial size of images, this approach can effectively shorten the token sequence and reduce the computational cost of ViT-like plain architectures. In this work, we aim to thoroughly examine the information loss caused by this patchification-based compressive encoding paradigm and how it affects visual understanding. We conduct extensive patch size scaling experiments and excitedly observe an intriguing scaling law in patchification: the models can consistently benefit from decreased patch sizes and attain improved predictive performance, until it reaches the minimum patch size of 1x1, i.e., pixel tokenization. This conclusion is broadly applicable across different vision tasks, various input scales, and diverse architectures such as ViT and the recent Mamba models. Moreover, as a by-product, we discover that with smaller patches, task-specific decoder heads become less critical for dense prediction. In the experiments, we successfully scale up the visual sequence to an exceptional length of 50,176 tokens, achieving a competitive test accuracy of 84.6% with a base-sized model on the ImageNet-1k benchmark. We hope this study can provide insights and theoretical foundations for future works of building non-compressive vision models. Code is available at https://github.com/wangf3014/Patch_Scaling.

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

Developing a universal model that can effectively harness heterogeneous resources and respond to a wide range of personalized needs has been a longstanding community aspiration. Our daily choices, especially in domains like fashion and retail, are substantially shaped by multi-modal data, such as pictures and textual descriptions. These modalities not only offer intuitive guidance but also cater to personalized user preferences. However, the predominant personalization approaches mainly focus on the ID or text-based recommendation problem, failing to comprehend the information spanning various tasks or modalities. In this paper, our goal is to establish a Unified paradigm for Multi-modal Personalization systems (UniMP), which effectively leverages multi-modal data while eliminating the complexities associated with task- and modality-specific customization. We argue that the advancements in foundational generative modeling have provided the flexibility and effectiveness necessary to achieve the objective. In light of this, we develop a generic and extensible personalization generative framework, that can handle a wide range of personalized needs including item recommendation, product search, preference prediction, explanation generation, and further user-guided image generation. Our methodology enhances the capabilities of foundational language models for personalized tasks by seamlessly ingesting interleaved cross-modal user history information, ensuring a more precise and customized experience for users. To train and evaluate the proposed multi-modal personalized tasks, we also introduce a novel and comprehensive benchmark covering a variety of user requirements. Our experiments on the real-world benchmark showcase the model's potential, outperforming competitive methods specialized for each task.

Semantic search for candidate retrieval is an important yet neglected problem in retrieval-based Chatbots, which aims to select a bunch of candidate responses efficiently from a large pool. The existing bottleneck is to ensure the model architecture having two points: 1) rich interactions between a query and a response to produce query-relevant responses; 2) ability of separately projecting the query and the response into latent spaces to apply efficiently in semantic search during online inference. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel approach, called Multitask-based Semantic Search Neural Network (MSSNN) for candidate retrieval, which accomplishes query-response interactions through multi-tasks. The method employs a Seq2Seq modeling task to learn a good query encoder, and then performs a word prediction task to build response embeddings, finally conducts a simple matching model to form the dot-product scorer. Experimental studies have demonstrated the potential of the proposed approach.

Though Transformers have achieved promising results in many computer vision tasks, they tend to be over-confident in predictions, as the standard Dot Product Self-Attention (DPSA) can barely preserve distance for the unbounded input domain. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a novel Lipschitz Regularized Transformer (LRFormer). Specifically, we present a new similarity function with the distance within Banach Space to ensure the Lipschitzness and also regularize the term by a contractive Lipschitz Bound. The proposed method is analyzed with a theoretical guarantee, providing a rigorous basis for its effectiveness and reliability. Extensive experiments conducted on standard vision benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art single forward pass approaches in prediction, calibration, and uncertainty estimation.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Product recommendation systems are important for major movie studios during the movie greenlight process and as part of machine learning personalization pipelines. Collaborative Filtering (CF) models have proved to be effective at powering recommender systems for online streaming services with explicit customer feedback data. CF models do not perform well in scenarios in which feedback data is not available, in cold start situations like new product launches, and situations with markedly different customer tiers (e.g., high frequency customers vs. casual customers). Generative natural language models that create useful theme-based representations of an underlying corpus of documents can be used to represent new product descriptions, like new movie plots. When combined with CF, they have shown to increase the performance in cold start situations. Outside of those cases though in which explicit customer feedback is available, recommender engines must rely on binary purchase data, which materially degrades performance. Fortunately, purchase data can be combined with product descriptions to generate meaningful representations of products and customer trajectories in a convenient product space in which proximity represents similarity. Learning to measure the distance between points in this space can be accomplished with a deep neural network that trains on customer histories and on dense vectorizations of product descriptions. We developed a system based on Collaborative (Deep) Metric Learning (CML) to predict the purchase probabilities of new theatrical releases. We trained and evaluated the model using a large dataset of customer histories, and tested the model for a set of movies that were released outside of the training window. Initial experiments show gains relative to models that do not train on collaborative preferences.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Temperature sampling is a conventional approach to diversify large language model predictions. As temperature increases, the prediction becomes diverse but also vulnerable to hallucinations -- generating tokens that are sensible but not factual. One common approach to mitigate hallucinations is to provide source/grounding documents and the model is trained to produce predictions that bind to and are attributable to the provided source. It appears that there is a trade-off between diversity and attribution. To mitigate any such trade-off, we propose to relax the constraint of having a fixed temperature over decoding steps, and a mechanism to guide the dynamic temperature according to its relevance to the source through KL-divergence. Our experiments justifies the trade-off, and shows that our sampling algorithm outperforms the conventional top-k and top-p algorithms in conversational question-answering and summarization tasks.

Existing text scoring methods require a large corpus, struggle with short texts, or require hand-labeled data. We develop a text scoring framework that leverages generative large language models (LLMs) to (1) set texts against the backdrop of information from the near-totality of the web and digitized media, and (2) effectively transform pairwise text comparisons from a reasoning problem to a pattern recognition task. Our approach, concept-guided chain-of-thought (CGCoT), utilizes a chain of researcher-designed prompts with an LLM to generate a concept-specific breakdown for each text, akin to guidance provided to human coders. We then pairwise compare breakdowns using an LLM and aggregate answers into a score using a probability model. We apply this approach to better understand speech reflecting aversion to specific political parties on Twitter, a topic that has commanded increasing interest because of its potential contributions to democratic backsliding. We achieve stronger correlations with human judgments than widely used unsupervised text scoring methods like Wordfish. In a supervised setting, besides a small pilot dataset to develop CGCoT prompts, our measures require no additional hand-labeled data and produce predictions on par with RoBERTa-Large fine-tuned on thousands of hand-labeled tweets. This project showcases the potential of combining human expertise and LLMs for scoring tasks.

With the rapid development of electronic commerce, the way of shopping has experienced a revolutionary evolution. To fully meet customers' massive and diverse online shopping needs with quick response, the retailing AI system needs to automatically recognize products from images and videos at the stock-keeping unit (SKU) level with high accuracy. However, product recognition is still a challenging task, since many of SKU-level products are fine-grained and visually similar by a rough glimpse. Although there are already some products benchmarks available, these datasets are either too small (limited number of products) or noisy-labeled (lack of human labeling). In this paper, we construct a human-labeled product image dataset named "Products-10K", which contains 10,000 fine-grained SKU-level products frequently bought by online customers in JD.com. Based on our new database, we also introduced several useful tips and tricks for fine-grained product recognition. The products-10K dataset is available via https://products-10k.github.io/.

In the marketing field, understanding consumer heterogeneity, which is the internal or psychological difference among consumers that cannot be captured by behavioral logs, has long been a critical challenge. However, a number of consumers today usually post their evaluation on the specific product on the online platform, which can be the valuable source of such unobservable differences among consumers. Several previous studies have shown the validity of the analysis on text modality, but on the other hand, such analyses may not necessarily demonstrate sufficient predictive accuracy for text alone, as they may not include information readily available from cross-sectional data, such as consumer profile data. In addition, recent advances in machine learning techniques, such as large-scale language models (LLMs) and multimodal learning have made it possible to deal with the various kind of dataset simultaneously, including textual data and the traditional cross-sectional data, and the joint representations can be effectively obtained from multiple modalities. Therefore, this study constructs a product evaluation model that takes into account consumer heterogeneity by multimodal learning of online product reviews and consumer profile information. We also compare multiple models using different modalities or hyper-parameters to demonstrate the robustness of multimodal learning in marketing analysis.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Machine learning models, such as neural networks, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting machines, accept a feature vector, and provide a prediction. These models learn in a supervised fashion where we provide feature vectors mapped to the expected output. It is common practice to engineer new features from the provided feature set. Such engineered features will either augment or replace portions of the existing feature vector. These engineered features are essentially calculated fields based on the values of the other features. Engineering such features is primarily a manual, time-consuming task. Additionally, each type of model will respond differently to different kinds of engineered features. This paper reports empirical research to demonstrate what kinds of engineered features are best suited to various machine learning model types. We provide this recommendation by generating several datasets that we designed to benefit from a particular type of engineered feature. The experiment demonstrates to what degree the machine learning model can synthesize the needed feature on its own. If a model can synthesize a planned feature, it is not necessary to provide that feature. The research demonstrated that the studied models do indeed perform differently with various types of engineered features.

Recognizing that traditional forecasting models often rely solely on historical demand, this work investigates the potential of data-driven techniques to automatically select and integrate market indicators for improving customer demand predictions. By adopting an exploratory methodology, we integrate macroeconomic time series, such as national GDP growth, from the Eurostat database into Neural Prophet and SARIMAX forecasting models. Suitable time series are automatically identified through different state-of-the-art feature selection methods and applied to sales data from our industrial partner. It could be shown that forecasts can be significantly enhanced by incorporating external information. Notably, the potential of feature selection methods stands out, especially due to their capability for automation without expert knowledge and manual selection effort. In particular, the Forward Feature Selection technique consistently yielded superior forecasting accuracy for both SARIMAX and Neural Prophet across different company sales datasets. In the comparative analysis of the errors of the selected forecasting models, namely Neural Prophet and SARIMAX, it is observed that neither model demonstrates a significant superiority over the other.

This paper introduces a public dataset of 1.4 million procedurally-generated bicycle designs represented parametrically, as JSON files, and as rasterized images. The dataset is created through the use of a rendering engine which harnesses the BikeCAD software to generate vector graphics from parametric designs. This rendering engine is discussed in the paper and also released publicly alongside the dataset. Though this dataset has numerous applications, a principal motivation is the need to train cross-modal predictive models between parametric and image-based design representations. For example, we demonstrate that a predictive model can be trained to accurately estimate Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) embeddings from a parametric representation directly. This allows similarity relations to be established between parametric bicycle designs and text strings or reference images. Trained predictive models are also made public. The dataset joins the BIKED dataset family which includes thousands of mixed-representation human-designed bicycle models and several datasets quantifying design performance. The code and dataset can be found at: https://github.com/Lyleregenwetter/BIKED_multimodal/tree/main

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Knowledge of mixtures' phase equilibria is crucial in nature and technical chemistry. Phase equilibria calculations of mixtures require activity coefficients. However, experimental data on activity coefficients is often limited due to high cost of experiments. For an accurate and efficient prediction of activity coefficients, machine learning approaches have been recently developed. However, current machine learning approaches still extrapolate poorly for activity coefficients of unknown molecules. In this work, we introduce the SMILES-to-Properties-Transformer (SPT), a natural language processing network to predict binary limiting activity coefficients from SMILES codes. To overcome the limitations of available experimental data, we initially train our network on a large dataset of synthetic data sampled from COSMO-RS (10 Million data points) and then fine-tune the model on experimental data (20 870 data points). This training strategy enables SPT to accurately predict limiting activity coefficients even for unknown molecules, cutting the mean prediction error in half compared to state-of-the-art models for activity coefficient predictions such as COSMO-RS, UNIFAC, and improving on recent machine learning approaches.

We propose Meta-Prod2vec, a novel method to compute item similarities for recommendation that leverages existing item metadata. Such scenarios are frequently encountered in applications such as content recommendation, ad targeting and web search. Our method leverages past user interactions with items and their attributes to compute low-dimensional embeddings of items. Specifically, the item metadata is in- jected into the model as side information to regularize the item embeddings. We show that the new item representa- tions lead to better performance on recommendation tasks on an open music dataset.

Materials synthesis is vital for innovations such as energy storage, catalysis, electronics, and biomedical devices. Yet, the process relies heavily on empirical, trial-and-error methods guided by expert intuition. Our work aims to support the materials science community by providing a practical, data-driven resource. We have curated a comprehensive dataset of 17K expert-verified synthesis recipes from open-access literature, which forms the basis of our newly developed benchmark, AlchemyBench. AlchemyBench offers an end-to-end framework that supports research in large language models applied to synthesis prediction. It encompasses key tasks, including raw materials and equipment prediction, synthesis procedure generation, and characterization outcome forecasting. We propose an LLM-as-a-Judge framework that leverages large language models for automated evaluation, demonstrating strong statistical agreement with expert assessments. Overall, our contributions offer a supportive foundation for exploring the capabilities of LLMs in predicting and guiding materials synthesis, ultimately paving the way for more efficient experimental design and accelerated innovation in materials science.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

Activity and property prediction models are the central workhorses in drug discovery and materials sciences, but currently they have to be trained or fine-tuned for new tasks. Without training or fine-tuning, scientific language models could be used for such low-data tasks through their announced zero- and few-shot capabilities. However, their predictive quality at activity prediction is lacking. In this work, we envision a novel type of activity prediction model that is able to adapt to new prediction tasks at inference time, via understanding textual information describing the task. To this end, we propose a new architecture with separate modules for chemical and natural language inputs, and a contrastive pre-training objective on data from large biochemical databases. In extensive experiments, we show that our method CLAMP yields improved predictive performance on few-shot learning benchmarks and zero-shot problems in drug discovery. We attribute the advances of our method to the modularized architecture and to our pre-training objective.

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to inform policies. Data collected in this article describe international trade transactions and commonly associated economic factors. Machine learning (ML) models deployed include: ARIMA, GBoosting, XGBoosting, and LightGBM for predicting future trade patterns, and K-Means clustering of countries according to economic factors. Unlike short-term and subjective (straight-line) projections and medium-term (aggre-gated) projections, ML methods provide a range of data-driven and interpretable projections for individual commodities. Models, their results, and policies are introduced and evaluated for prediction quality.

We consider a class of assortment optimization problems in an offline data-driven setting. A firm does not know the underlying customer choice model but has access to an offline dataset consisting of the historically offered assortment set, customer choice, and revenue. The objective is to use the offline dataset to find an optimal assortment. Due to the combinatorial nature of assortment optimization, the problem of insufficient data coverage is likely to occur in the offline dataset. Therefore, designing a provably efficient offline learning algorithm becomes a significant challenge. To this end, we propose an algorithm referred to as Pessimistic ASsortment opTimizAtion (PASTA for short) designed based on the principle of pessimism, that can correctly identify the optimal assortment by only requiring the offline data to cover the optimal assortment under general settings. In particular, we establish a regret bound for the offline assortment optimization problem under the celebrated multinomial logit model. We also propose an efficient computational procedure to solve our pessimistic assortment optimization problem. Numerical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing baseline method.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Predicting invoice payment is valuable in multiple industries and supports decision-making processes in most financial workflows. However, the challenge in this realm involves dealing with complex data and the lack of data related to decisions-making processes not registered in the accounts receivable system. This work presents a prototype developed as a solution devised during a partnership with a multinational bank to support collectors in predicting invoices payment. The proposed prototype reached up to 77\% of accuracy, which improved the prioritization of customers and supported the daily work of collectors. With the presented results, one expects to support researchers dealing with the problem of invoice payment prediction to get insights and examples of how to tackle issues present in real data.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

This research explores the application of large language models (LLMs) to generate synthetic datasets for Product Desirability Toolkit (PDT) testing, a key component in evaluating user sentiment and product experience. Utilizing gpt-4o-mini, a cost-effective alternative to larger commercial LLMs, three methods, Word+Review, Review+Word, and Supply-Word, were each used to synthesize 1000 product reviews. The generated datasets were assessed for sentiment alignment, textual diversity, and data generation cost. Results demonstrated high sentiment alignment across all methods, with Pearson correlations ranging from 0.93 to 0.97. Supply-Word exhibited the highest diversity and coverage of PDT terms, although with increased generation costs. Despite minor biases toward positive sentiments, in situations with limited test data, LLM-generated synthetic data offers significant advantages, including scalability, cost savings, and flexibility in dataset production.

In recent years, large language models have achieved breakthroughs on a wide range of benchmarks in natural language processing and continue to increase in performance. Recently, the advances of large language models have raised interest outside the natural language processing community and could have a large impact on daily life. In this paper, we pose the question: How will large language models and other foundation models shape the future product development process? We provide the reader with an overview of the subject by summarizing both recent advances in natural language processing and the use of information technology in the engineering design process. We argue that discourse should be regarded as the core of engineering design processes, and therefore should be represented in a digital artifact. On this basis, we describe how foundation models such as large language models could contribute to the design discourse by automating parts thereof that involve creativity and reasoning, and were previously reserved for humans. We describe how simulations, experiments, topology optimizations, and other process steps can be integrated into a machine-actionable, discourse-centric design process. Finally, we outline the future research that will be necessary for the implementation of the conceptualized framework.

Large Language Models (LLMs) with strong abilities in natural language processing tasks have emerged and have been rapidly applied in various kinds of areas such as science, finance and software engineering. However, the capability of LLMs to advance the field of chemistry remains unclear. In this paper,we establish a comprehensive benchmark containing 8 practical chemistry tasks, including 1) name prediction, 2) property prediction, 3) yield prediction, 4) reaction prediction, 5) retrosynthesis (prediction of reactants from products), 6)text-based molecule design, 7) molecule captioning, and 8) reagent selection. Our analysis draws on widely recognized datasets including BBBP, Tox21, PubChem, USPTO, and ChEBI, facilitating a broad exploration of the capacities of LLMs within the context of practical chemistry. Three GPT models (GPT-4, GPT-3.5,and Davinci-003) are evaluated for each chemistry task in zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning settings with carefully selected demonstration examples and specially crafted prompts. The key results of our investigation are 1) GPT-4 outperforms the other two models among the three evaluated; 2) GPT models exhibit less competitive performance in tasks demanding precise understanding of molecular SMILES representation, such as reaction prediction and retrosynthesis;3) GPT models demonstrate strong capabilities in text-related explanation tasks such as molecule captioning; and 4) GPT models exhibit comparable or better performance to classical machine learning models when applied to chemical problems that can be transformed into classification or ranking tasks, such as property prediction, and yield prediction.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean R^2 score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

Physical simulations produce excellent predictions of weather effects. Neural radiance fields produce SOTA scene models. We describe a novel NeRF-editing procedure that can fuse physical simulations with NeRF models of scenes, producing realistic movies of physical phenomena in those scenes. Our application -- Climate NeRF -- allows people to visualize what climate change outcomes will do to them. ClimateNeRF allows us to render realistic weather effects, including smog, snow, and flood. Results can be controlled with physically meaningful variables like water level. Qualitative and quantitative studies show that our simulated results are significantly more realistic than those from SOTA 2D image editing and SOTA 3D NeRF stylization.

Customer product reviews play a role in improving the quality of products and services for business organizations or their brands. Complaining is an attitude that expresses dissatisfaction with an event or a product not meeting customer expectations. In this paper, we build a Open-domain Complaint Detection dataset (UIT-ViOCD), including 5,485 human-annotated reviews on four categories about product reviews on e-commerce sites. After the data collection phase, we proceed to the annotation task and achieve the inter-annotator agreement Am of 87%. Then, we present an extensive methodology for the research purposes and achieve 92.16% by F1-score for identifying complaints. With the results, in the future, we aim to build a system for open-domain complaint detection in E-commerce websites.

Temporal sentence grounding in videos (TSGV) faces challenges due to public TSGV datasets containing significant temporal biases, which are attributed to the uneven temporal distributions of target moments. Existing methods generate augmented videos, where target moments are forced to have varying temporal locations. However, since the video lengths of the given datasets have small variations, only changing the temporal locations results in poor generalization ability in videos with varying lengths. In this paper, we propose a novel training framework complemented by diversified data augmentation and a domain discriminator. The data augmentation generates videos with various lengths and target moment locations to diversify temporal distributions. However, augmented videos inevitably exhibit distinct feature distributions which may introduce noise. To address this, we design a domain adaptation auxiliary task to diminish feature discrepancies between original and augmented videos. We also encourage the model to produce distinct predictions for videos with the same text queries but different moment locations to promote debiased training. Experiments on Charades-CD and ActivityNet-CD datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and generalization abilities of our method in multiple grounding structures, achieving state-of-the-art results.

Leveraging recent advancements in large language models, modern neural code completion models have demonstrated the capability to generate highly accurate code suggestions. However, their massive size poses challenges in terms of computational costs and environmental impact, hindering their widespread adoption in practical scenarios. Dynamic inference emerges as a promising solution, as it allocates minimal computation during inference while maintaining the model's performance. In this research, we explore dynamic inference within the context of code completion. Initially, we conducted an empirical investigation on GPT-2, focusing on the inference capabilities of intermediate layers for code completion. We found that 54.4% of tokens can be accurately generated using just the first layer, signifying significant computational savings potential. Moreover, despite using all layers, the model still fails to predict 14.5% of tokens correctly, and the subsequent completions continued from them are rarely considered helpful, with only a 4.2% Acceptance Rate. These findings motivate our exploration of dynamic inference in code completion and inspire us to enhance it with a decision-making mechanism that stops the generation of incorrect code. We thus propose a novel dynamic inference method specifically tailored for code completion models. This method aims not only to produce correct predictions with largely reduced computation but also to prevent incorrect predictions proactively. Our extensive evaluation shows that it can averagely skip 1.7 layers out of 16 layers in the models, leading to an 11.2% speedup with only a marginal 1.1% reduction in ROUGE-L.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Advancements in neural machinery have led to a wide range of algorithmic solutions for molecular property prediction. Two classes of models in particular have yielded promising results: neural networks applied to computed molecular fingerprints or expert-crafted descriptors, and graph convolutional neural networks that construct a learned molecular representation by operating on the graph structure of the molecule. However, recent literature has yet to clearly determine which of these two methods is superior when generalizing to new chemical space. Furthermore, prior research has rarely examined these new models in industry research settings in comparison to existing employed models. In this paper, we benchmark models extensively on 19 public and 16 proprietary industrial datasets spanning a wide variety of chemical endpoints. In addition, we introduce a graph convolutional model that consistently matches or outperforms models using fixed molecular descriptors as well as previous graph neural architectures on both public and proprietary datasets. Our empirical findings indicate that while approaches based on these representations have yet to reach the level of experimental reproducibility, our proposed model nevertheless offers significant improvements over models currently used in industrial workflows.

Despite apparent human-level performances of deep neural networks (DNN), they behave fundamentally differently from humans. They easily change predictions when small corruptions such as blur and noise are applied on the input (lack of robustness), and they often produce confident predictions on out-of-distribution samples (improper uncertainty measure). While a number of researches have aimed to address those issues, proposed solutions are typically expensive and complicated (e.g. Bayesian inference and adversarial training). Meanwhile, many simple and cheap regularization methods have been developed to enhance the generalization of classifiers. Such regularization methods have largely been overlooked as baselines for addressing the robustness and uncertainty issues, as they are not specifically designed for that. In this paper, we provide extensive empirical evaluations on the robustness and uncertainty estimates of image classifiers (CIFAR-100 and ImageNet) trained with state-of-the-art regularization methods. Furthermore, experimental results show that certain regularization methods can serve as strong baseline methods for robustness and uncertainty estimation of DNNs.

In the evolving e-commerce field, recommendation systems crucially shape user experience and engagement. The rise of Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) recommendation systems, noted for their flexibility and ease of access for customer vendors, marks a significant trend. However, the academic focus remains largely on Business-to-Consumer (B2C) models, leaving a gap filled by the limited C2C recommendation datasets that lack in item attributes, user diversity, and scale. The intricacy of C2C recommendation systems is further accentuated by the dual roles users assume as both sellers and buyers, introducing a spectrum of less uniform and varied inputs. Addressing this, we introduce MerRec, the first large-scale dataset specifically for C2C recommendations, sourced from the Mercari e-commerce platform, covering millions of users and products over 6 months in 2023. MerRec not only includes standard features such as user_id, item_id, and session_id, but also unique elements like timestamped action types, product taxonomy, and textual product attributes, offering a comprehensive dataset for research. This dataset, extensively evaluated across six recommendation tasks, establishes a new benchmark for the development of advanced recommendation algorithms in real-world scenarios, bridging the gap between academia and industry and propelling the study of C2C recommendations.

Improving the quality of search results can significantly enhance users experience and engagement with search engines. In spite of several recent advancements in the fields of machine learning and data mining, correctly classifying items for a particular user search query has been a long-standing challenge, which still has a large room for improvement. This paper introduces the "Shopping Queries Dataset", a large dataset of difficult Amazon search queries and results, publicly released with the aim of fostering research in improving the quality of search results. The dataset contains around 130 thousand unique queries and 2.6 million manually labeled (query,product) relevance judgements. The dataset is multilingual with queries in English, Japanese, and Spanish. The Shopping Queries Dataset is being used in one of the KDDCup'22 challenges. In this paper, we describe the dataset and present three evaluation tasks along with baseline results: (i) ranking the results list, (ii) classifying product results into relevance categories, and (iii) identifying substitute products for a given query. We anticipate that this data will become the gold standard for future research in the topic of product search.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

With the development of computer-assisted techniques, research communities including biochemistry and deep learning have been devoted into the drug discovery field for over a decade. Various applications of deep learning have drawn great attention in drug discovery, such as molecule generation, molecular property prediction, retrosynthesis prediction, and reaction prediction. While most existing surveys only focus on one of the applications, limiting the view of researchers in the community. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review on the aforementioned four aspects, and discuss the relationships among different applications. The latest literature and classical benchmarks are presented for better understanding the development of variety of approaches. We commence by summarizing the molecule representation format in these works, followed by an introduction of recent proposed approaches for each of the four tasks. Furthermore, we review a variety of commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics and compare the performance of deep learning-based models. Finally, we conclude by identifying remaining challenges and discussing the future trend for deep learning methods in drug discovery.

Monocular depth estimation is scale-ambiguous, and thus requires scale supervision to produce metric predictions. Even so, the resulting models will be geometry-specific, with learned scales that cannot be directly transferred across domains. Because of that, recent works focus instead on relative depth, eschewing scale in favor of improved up-to-scale zero-shot transfer. In this work we introduce ZeroDepth, a novel monocular depth estimation framework capable of predicting metric scale for arbitrary test images from different domains and camera parameters. This is achieved by (i) the use of input-level geometric embeddings that enable the network to learn a scale prior over objects; and (ii) decoupling the encoder and decoder stages, via a variational latent representation that is conditioned on single frame information. We evaluated ZeroDepth targeting both outdoor (KITTI, DDAD, nuScenes) and indoor (NYUv2) benchmarks, and achieved a new state-of-the-art in both settings using the same pre-trained model, outperforming methods that train on in-domain data and require test-time scaling to produce metric estimates.

Putting together an ideal outfit is a process that involves creativity and style intuition. This makes it a particularly difficult task to automate. Existing styling products generally involve human specialists and a highly curated set of fashion items. In this paper, we will describe how we bootstrapped the Complete The Look (CTL) system at Pinterest. This is a technology that aims to learn the subjective task of "style compatibility" in order to recommend complementary items that complete an outfit. In particular, we want to show recommendations from other categories that are compatible with an item of interest. For example, what are some heels that go well with this cocktail dress? We will introduce our outfit dataset of over 1 million outfits and 4 million objects, a subset of which we will make available to the research community, and describe the pipeline used to obtain and refresh this dataset. Furthermore, we will describe how we evaluate this subjective task and compare model performance across multiple training methods. Lastly, we will share our lessons going from experimentation to working prototype, and how to mitigate failure modes in the production environment. Our work represents one of the first examples of an industrial-scale solution for compatibility-based fashion recommendation.

Over the last years, several works have explored the application of deep learning algorithms to determine the large-scale signal fading (also referred to as ``path loss'') between transmitter and receiver pairs in urban communication networks. The central idea is to replace costly measurement campaigns, inaccurate statistical models or computationally expensive ray-tracing simulations by machine learning models which, once trained, produce accurate predictions almost instantly. Although the topic has attracted attention from many researchers, there are few open benchmark datasets and codebases that would allow everyone to test and compare the developed methods and algorithms. We take a step towards filling this gap by releasing a publicly available dataset of simulated path loss radio maps together with realistic city maps from real-world locations and aerial images from open datasources. Initial experiments regarding model architectures, input feature design and estimation of radio maps from aerial images are presented and the code is made available.

We propose a method to estimate the mechanical parameters of fabrics using a casual capture setup with a depth camera. Our approach enables to create mechanically-correct digital representations of real-world textile materials, which is a fundamental step for many interactive design and engineering applications. As opposed to existing capture methods, which typically require expensive setups, video sequences, or manual intervention, our solution can capture at scale, is agnostic to the optical appearance of the textile, and facilitates fabric arrangement by non-expert operators. To this end, we propose a sim-to-real strategy to train a learning-based framework that can take as input one or multiple images and outputs a full set of mechanical parameters. Thanks to carefully designed data augmentation and transfer learning protocols, our solution generalizes to real images despite being trained only on synthetic data, hence successfully closing the sim-to-real loop.Key in our work is to demonstrate that evaluating the regression accuracy based on the similarity at parameter space leads to an inaccurate distances that do not match the human perception. To overcome this, we propose a novel metric for fabric drape similarity that operates on the image domain instead on the parameter space, allowing us to evaluate our estimation within the context of a similarity rank. We show that out metric correlates with human judgments about the perception of drape similarity, and that our model predictions produce perceptually accurate results compared to the ground truth parameters.

A triangular mesh is one of the most popular 3D data representations. As such, the deployment of deep neural networks for mesh processing is widely spread and is increasingly attracting more attention. However, neural networks are prone to adversarial attacks, where carefully crafted inputs impair the model's functionality. The need to explore these vulnerabilities is a fundamental factor in the future development of 3D-based applications. Recently, mesh attacks were studied on the semantic level, where classifiers are misled to produce wrong predictions. Nevertheless, mesh surfaces possess complex geometric attributes beyond their semantic meaning, and their analysis often includes the need to encode and reconstruct the geometry of the shape. We propose a novel framework for a geometric adversarial attack on a 3D mesh autoencoder. In this setting, an adversarial input mesh deceives the autoencoder by forcing it to reconstruct a different geometric shape at its output. The malicious input is produced by perturbing a clean shape in the spectral domain. Our method leverages the spectral decomposition of the mesh along with additional mesh-related properties to obtain visually credible results that consider the delicacy of surface distortions. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/StolikTomer/SAGA.

When language models (LMs) are trained to forget (or "unlearn'') a skill, how precisely does their behavior change? We study the behavior of transformer LMs in which tasks have been forgotten via fine-tuning on randomized labels. Such LMs learn to generate near-random predictions for individual examples in the "training'' set used for forgetting. Across tasks, however, LMs exhibit extreme variability in whether LM predictions change on examples outside the training set. In some tasks (like entailment classification), forgetting generalizes robustly, and causes models to produce uninformative predictions on new task instances; in other tasks (like physical commonsense reasoning and scientific question answering) forgetting affects only the training examples, and models continue to perform the "forgotten'' task accurately even for examples very similar to those that appeared in the training set. Dataset difficulty is not predictive of whether a behavior can be forgotten; instead, generalization in forgetting is (weakly) predicted by the confidence of LMs' initial task predictions and the variability of LM representations of training data, with low confidence and low variability both associated with greater generalization. Perhaps most surprisingly, random-label forgetting appears to be somewhat insensitive to the contents of the training set: for example, models trained on science questions with random labels continue to answer other science questions accurately, but begin to produce random labels on entailment classification tasks. Finally, we show that even generalizable forgetting is shallow: linear probes trained on LMs' representations can still perform tasks reliably after forgetting. Our results highlight the difficulty and unpredictability of performing targeted skill removal from models via fine-tuning.

While most existing works on LLM prompting techniques focus only on how to select a better set of data samples inside one single prompt input (In-Context Learning or ICL), why can not we design and leverage multiple prompts together to further improve the LLM's performance? In this work, we propose In-Context Sampling (ICS), a low-resource LLM prompting technique to produce confident predictions by optimizing the construction of multiple ICL prompt inputs. Extensive experiments with three open-source LLMs (FlanT5-XL, Mistral-7B, and Mixtral-8x7B) on four NLI datasets (e-SNLI, Multi-NLI, ANLI, and Contract-NLI) and one QA dataset (CommonsenseQA) illustrate that ICS can consistently enhance LLMs' performance. An in-depth evaluation with three data similarity-based ICS strategies suggests that these strategies can further elevate LLM's performance, which sheds light on a new yet promising future research direction.

In this paper, we propose a framework named OCSampler to explore a compact yet effective video representation with one short clip for efficient video recognition. Recent works prefer to formulate frame sampling as a sequential decision task by selecting frames one by one according to their importance, while we present a new paradigm of learning instance-specific video condensation policies to select informative frames for representing the entire video only in a single step. Our basic motivation is that the efficient video recognition task lies in processing a whole sequence at once rather than picking up frames sequentially. Accordingly, these policies are derived from a light-weighted skim network together with a simple yet effective policy network within one step. Moreover, we extend the proposed method with a frame number budget, enabling the framework to produce correct predictions in high confidence with as few frames as possible. Experiments on four benchmarks, i.e., ActivityNet, Mini-Kinetics, FCVID, Mini-Sports1M, demonstrate the effectiveness of our OCSampler over previous methods in terms of accuracy, theoretical computational expense, actual inference speed. We also evaluate its generalization power across different classifiers, sampled frames, and search spaces. Especially, we achieve 76.9% mAP and 21.7 GFLOPs on ActivityNet with an impressive throughput: 123.9 Videos/s on a single TITAN Xp GPU.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Speaker profiling, which aims to estimate speaker characteristics such as age and height, has a wide range of applications inforensics, recommendation systems, etc. In this work, we propose a semisupervised learning approach to mitigate the issue of low training data for speaker profiling. This is done by utilizing external corpus with speaker information to train a better representation which can help to improve the speaker profiling systems. Specifically, besides the standard supervised learning path, the proposed framework has two more paths: (1) an unsupervised speaker representation learning path that helps to capture the speaker information; (2) a consistency training path that helps to improve the robustness of the system by enforcing it to produce similar predictions for utterances of the same speaker.The proposed approach is evaluated on the TIMIT and NISP datasets for age, height, and gender estimation, while the Librispeech is used as the unsupervised external corpus. Trained both on single-task and multi-task settings, our approach was able to achieve state-of-the-art results on age estimation on the TIMIT Test dataset with Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of6.8 and 7.4 years and Mean Absolute Error(MAE) of 4.8 and5.0 years for male and female speakers respectively.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Recent research in representation learning utilizes large databases of proteins or molecules to acquire knowledge of drug and protein structures through unsupervised learning techniques. These pre-trained representations have proven to significantly enhance the accuracy of subsequent tasks, such as predicting the affinity between drugs and target proteins. In this study, we demonstrate that by incorporating knowledge graphs from diverse sources and modalities into the sequences or SMILES representation, we can further enrich the representation and achieve state-of-the-art results on established benchmark datasets. We provide preprocessed and integrated data obtained from 7 public sources, which encompass over 30M triples. Additionally, we make available the pre-trained models based on this data, along with the reported outcomes of their performance on three widely-used benchmark datasets for drug-target binding affinity prediction found in the Therapeutic Data Commons (TDC) benchmarks. Additionally, we make the source code for training models on benchmark datasets publicly available. Our objective in releasing these pre-trained models, accompanied by clean data for model pretraining and benchmark results, is to encourage research in knowledge-enhanced representation learning.

Property prediction plays an important role in material discovery. As an initial step to eventually develop a foundation model for material science, we introduce a new autoencoder called the MHG-GNN, which combines graph neural network (GNN) with Molecular Hypergraph Grammar (MHG). Results on a variety of property prediction tasks with diverse materials show that MHG-GNN is promising.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

In drug-discovery-related tasks such as virtual screening, machine learning is emerging as a promising way to predict molecular properties. Conventionally, molecular fingerprints (numerical representations of molecules) are calculated through rule-based algorithms that map molecules to a sparse discrete space. However, these algorithms perform poorly for shallow prediction models or small datasets. To address this issue, we present SMILES Transformer. Inspired by Transformer and pre-trained language models from natural language processing, SMILES Transformer learns molecular fingerprints through unsupervised pre-training of the sequence-to-sequence language model using a huge corpus of SMILES, a text representation system for molecules. We performed benchmarks on 10 datasets against existing fingerprints and graph-based methods and demonstrated the superiority of the proposed algorithms in small-data settings where pre-training facilitated good generalization. Moreover, we define a novel metric to concurrently measure model accuracy and data efficiency.

In this paper, we study the predict-then-optimize problem where the output of a machine learning prediction task is used as the input of some downstream optimization problem, say, the objective coefficient vector of a linear program. The problem is also known as predictive analytics or contextual linear programming. The existing approaches largely suffer from either (i) optimization intractability (a non-convex objective function)/statistical inefficiency (a suboptimal generalization bound) or (ii) requiring strong condition(s) such as no constraint or loss calibration. We develop a new approach to the problem called maximum optimality margin which designs the machine learning loss function by the optimality condition of the downstream optimization. The max-margin formulation enjoys both computational efficiency and good theoretical properties for the learning procedure. More importantly, our new approach only needs the observations of the optimal solution in the training data rather than the objective function, which makes it a new and natural approach to the inverse linear programming problem under both contextual and context-free settings; we also analyze the proposed method under both offline and online settings, and demonstrate its performance using numerical experiments.

Building a scalable and real-time recommendation system is vital for many businesses driven by time-sensitive customer feedback, such as short-videos ranking or online ads. Despite the ubiquitous adoption of production-scale deep learning frameworks like TensorFlow or PyTorch, these general-purpose frameworks fall short of business demands in recommendation scenarios for various reasons: on one hand, tweaking systems based on static parameters and dense computations for recommendation with dynamic and sparse features is detrimental to model quality; on the other hand, such frameworks are designed with batch-training stage and serving stage completely separated, preventing the model from interacting with customer feedback in real-time. These issues led us to reexamine traditional approaches and explore radically different design choices. In this paper, we present Monolith, a system tailored for online training. Our design has been driven by observations of our application workloads and production environment that reflects a marked departure from other recommendations systems. Our contributions are manifold: first, we crafted a collisionless embedding table with optimizations such as expirable embeddings and frequency filtering to reduce its memory footprint; second, we provide an production-ready online training architecture with high fault-tolerance; finally, we proved that system reliability could be traded-off for real-time learning. Monolith has successfully landed in the BytePlus Recommend product.

Property prediction accuracy has long been a key parameter of machine learning in materials informatics. Accordingly, advanced models showing state-of-the-art performance turn into highly parameterized black boxes missing interpretability. Here, we present an elegant way to make their reasoning transparent. Human-readable text-based descriptions automatically generated within a suite of open-source tools are proposed as materials representation. Transformer language models pretrained on 2 million peer-reviewed articles take as input well-known terms, e.g., chemical composition, crystal symmetry, and site geometry. Our approach outperforms crystal graph networks by classifying four out of five analyzed properties if one considers all available reference data. Moreover, fine-tuned text-based models show high accuracy in the ultra-small data limit. Explanations of their internal machinery are produced using local interpretability techniques and are faithful and consistent with domain expert rationales. This language-centric framework makes accurate property predictions accessible to people without artificial-intelligence expertise.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

The global cost of drug discovery and development exceeds $200 billion annually. The main results of drug discovery and development are the outcomes of clinical trials, which directly influence the regulatory approval of new drug candidates and ultimately affect patient outcomes. Despite their significance, large-scale, high-quality clinical trial outcome data are not readily available to the public. Suppose a large clinical trial outcome dataset is provided; machine learning researchers can potentially develop accurate prediction models using past trials and outcome labels, which could help prioritize and optimize therapeutic programs, ultimately benefiting patients. This paper introduces Clinical Trial Outcome (CTO) dataset, the largest trial outcome dataset with around 479K clinical trials, aggregating outcomes from multiple sources of weakly supervised labels, minimizing the noise from individual sources, and eliminating the need for human annotation. These sources include large language model (LLM) decisions on trial-related documents, news headline sentiments, stock prices of trial sponsors, trial linkages across phases, and other signals such as patient dropout rates and adverse events. CTO's labels show unprecedented agreement with supervised clinical trial outcome labels from test split of the supervised TOP dataset, with a 91 F1.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

GNNs and chemical fingerprints are the predominant approaches to representing molecules for property prediction. However, in NLP, transformers have become the de-facto standard for representation learning thanks to their strong downstream task transfer. In parallel, the software ecosystem around transformers is maturing rapidly, with libraries like HuggingFace and BertViz enabling streamlined training and introspection. In this work, we make one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate transformers on molecular property prediction tasks via our ChemBERTa model. ChemBERTa scales well with pretraining dataset size, offering competitive downstream performance on MoleculeNet and useful attention-based visualization modalities. Our results suggest that transformers offer a promising avenue of future work for molecular representation learning and property prediction. To facilitate these efforts, we release a curated dataset of 77M SMILES from PubChem suitable for large-scale self-supervised pretraining.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

The amount of content on online music streaming platforms is immense, and most users only access a tiny fraction of this content. Recommender systems are the application of choice to open up the collection to these users. Collaborative filtering has the disadvantage that it relies on explicit ratings, which are often unavailable, and generally disregards the temporal nature of music consumption. On the other hand, item co-occurrence algorithms, such as the recently introduced word2vec-based recommenders, are typically left without an effective user representation. In this paper, we present a new approach to model users through recurrent neural networks by sequentially processing consumed items, represented by any type of embeddings and other context features. This way we obtain semantically rich user representations, which capture a user's musical taste over time. Our experimental analysis on large-scale user data shows that our model can be used to predict future songs a user will likely listen to, both in the short and long term.

With the prosperity of e-commerce and web applications, Recommender Systems (RecSys) have become an important component of our daily life, providing personalized suggestions that cater to user preferences. While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have made significant advancements in enhancing recommender systems by modeling user-item interactions and incorporating textual side information, DNN-based methods still face limitations, such as difficulties in understanding users' interests and capturing textual side information, inabilities in generalizing to various recommendation scenarios and reasoning on their predictions, etc. Meanwhile, the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and GPT4, has revolutionized the fields of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), due to their remarkable abilities in fundamental responsibilities of language understanding and generation, as well as impressive generalization and reasoning capabilities. As a result, recent studies have attempted to harness the power of LLMs to enhance recommender systems. Given the rapid evolution of this research direction in recommender systems, there is a pressing need for a systematic overview that summarizes existing LLM-empowered recommender systems, to provide researchers in relevant fields with an in-depth understanding. Therefore, in this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review of LLM-empowered recommender systems from various aspects including Pre-training, Fine-tuning, and Prompting. More specifically, we first introduce representative methods to harness the power of LLMs (as a feature encoder) for learning representations of users and items. Then, we review recent techniques of LLMs for enhancing recommender systems from three paradigms, namely pre-training, fine-tuning, and prompting. Finally, we comprehensively discuss future directions in this emerging field.

Feature engineering has become one of the most important steps to improve model prediction performance, and to produce quality datasets. However, this process requires non-trivial domain-knowledge which involves a time-consuming process. Thereby, automating such process has become an active area of research and of interest in industrial applications. In this paper, a novel method, called Meta-learning and Causality Based Feature Engineering (MACFE), is proposed; our method is based on the use of meta-learning, feature distribution encoding, and causality feature selection. In MACFE, meta-learning is used to find the best transformations, then the search is accelerated by pre-selecting "original" features given their causal relevance. Experimental evaluations on popular classification datasets show that MACFE can improve the prediction performance across eight classifiers, outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods in average by at least 6.54%, and obtains an improvement of 2.71% over the best previous works.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Models based on machine learning can enable accurate and fast molecular property predictions, which is of interest in drug discovery and material design. Various supervised machine learning models have demonstrated promising performance, but the vast chemical space and the limited availability of property labels make supervised learning challenging. Recently, unsupervised transformer-based language models pretrained on a large unlabelled corpus have produced state-of-the-art results in many downstream natural language processing tasks. Inspired by this development, we present molecular embeddings obtained by training an efficient transformer encoder model, MoLFormer, which uses rotary positional embeddings. This model employs a linear attention mechanism, coupled with highly distributed training, on SMILES sequences of 1.1 billion unlabelled molecules from the PubChem and ZINC datasets. We show that the learned molecular representation outperforms existing baselines, including supervised and self-supervised graph neural networks and language models, on several downstream tasks from ten benchmark datasets. They perform competitively on two others. Further analyses, specifically through the lens of attention, demonstrate that MoLFormer trained on chemical SMILES indeed learns the spatial relationships between atoms within a molecule. These results provide encouraging evidence that large-scale molecular language models can capture sufficient chemical and structural information to predict various distinct molecular properties, including quantum-chemical properties.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

The success of drug discovery and development relies on the precise prediction of molecular activities and properties. While in silico molecular property prediction has shown remarkable potential, its use has been limited so far to assays for which large amounts of data are available. In this study, we use a fine-tuned large language model to integrate biological assays based on their textual information, coupled with Barlow Twins, a Siamese neural network using a novel self-supervised learning approach. This architecture uses both assay information and molecular fingerprints to extract the true molecular information. TwinBooster enables the prediction of properties of unseen bioassays and molecules by providing state-of-the-art zero-shot learning tasks. Remarkably, our artificial intelligence pipeline shows excellent performance on the FS-Mol benchmark. This breakthrough demonstrates the application of deep learning to critical property prediction tasks where data is typically scarce. By accelerating the early identification of active molecules in drug discovery and development, this method has the potential to help streamline the identification of novel therapeutics.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Finding new drugs is getting harder and harder. One of the hopes of drug discovery is to use machine learning models to predict molecular properties. That is why models for molecular property prediction are being developed and tested on benchmarks such as MoleculeNet. However, existing benchmarks are unrealistic and are too different from applying the models in practice. We have created a new practical Lo-Hi benchmark consisting of two tasks: Lead Optimization (Lo) and Hit Identification (Hi), corresponding to the real drug discovery process. For the Hi task, we designed a novel molecular splitting algorithm that solves the Balanced Vertex Minimum k-Cut problem. We tested state-of-the-art and classic ML models, revealing which works better under practical settings. We analyzed modern benchmarks and showed that they are unrealistic and overoptimistic. Review: https://openreview.net/forum?id=H2Yb28qGLV Lo-Hi benchmark: https://github.com/SteshinSS/lohi_neurips2023 Lo-Hi splitter library: https://github.com/SteshinSS/lohi_splitter

Designing robust frameworks for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. The advocates of the classical efficient market hypothesis affirm that it is impossible to accurately predict the future prices in an efficiently operating market due to the stochastic nature of the stock price variables. However, numerous propositions exist in the literature with varying degrees of sophistication and complexity that illustrate how algorithms and models can be designed for making efficient, accurate, and robust predictions of stock prices. We present a gamut of ten deep learning models of regression for precise and robust prediction of the future prices of the stock of a critical company in the auto sector of India. Using a very granular stock price collected at 5 minutes intervals, we train the models based on the records from 31st Dec, 2012 to 27th Dec, 2013. The testing of the models is done using records from 30th Dec, 2013 to 9th Jan 2015. We explain the design principles of the models and analyze the results of their performance based on accuracy in forecasting and speed of execution.

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.

This study provides an efficient approach for using text data to calculate patent-to-patent (p2p) technological similarity, and presents a hybrid framework for leveraging the resulting p2p similarity for applications such as semantic search and automated patent classification. We create embeddings using Sentence-BERT (SBERT) based on patent claims. We leverage SBERTs efficiency in creating embedding distance measures to map p2p similarity in large sets of patent data. We deploy our framework for classification with a simple Nearest Neighbors (KNN) model that predicts Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) of a patent based on the class assignment of the K patents with the highest p2p similarity. We thereby validate that the p2p similarity captures their technological features in terms of CPC overlap, and at the same demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for automatic patent classification based on text data. Furthermore, the presented classification framework is simple and the results easy to interpret and evaluate by end-users. In the out-of-sample model validation, we are able to perform a multi-label prediction of all assigned CPC classes on the subclass (663) level on 1,492,294 patents with an accuracy of 54% and F1 score > 66%, which suggests that our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art in text-based multi-label and multi-class patent classification. We furthermore discuss the applicability of the presented framework for semantic IP search, patent landscaping, and technology intelligence. We finally point towards a future research agenda for leveraging multi-source patent embeddings, their appropriateness across applications, as well as to improve and validate patent embeddings by creating domain-expert curated Semantic Textual Similarity (STS) benchmark datasets.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

We report a flexible language-model based deep learning strategy, applied here to solve complex forward and inverse problems in protein modeling, based on an attention neural network that integrates transformer and graph convolutional architectures in a causal multi-headed graph mechanism, to realize a generative pretrained model. The model is applied to predict secondary structure content (per-residue level and overall content), protein solubility, and sequencing tasks. Further trained on inverse tasks, the model is rendered capable of designing proteins with these properties as target features. The model is formulated as a general framework, completely prompt-based, and can be adapted for a variety of downstream tasks. We find that adding additional tasks yields emergent synergies that the model exploits in improving overall performance, beyond what would be possible by training a model on each dataset alone. Case studies are presented to validate the method, yielding protein designs specifically focused on structural proteins, but also exploring the applicability in the design of soluble, antimicrobial biomaterials. While our model is trained to ultimately perform 8 distinct tasks, with available datasets it can be extended to solve additional problems. In a broader sense, this work illustrates a form of multiscale modeling that relates a set of ultimate building blocks (here, byte-level utf8 characters) to complex output. This materiomic scheme captures complex emergent relationships between universal building block and resulting properties via a synergizing learning capacity to express a set of potentialities embedded in the knowledge used in training, via the interplay of universality and diversity.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

The study of biological materials and bio-inspired materials science is well established; however, surprisingly little knowledge has been systematically translated to engineering solutions. To accelerate discovery and guide insights, an open-source autoregressive transformer large language model (LLM), BioinspiredLLM, is reported. The model was finetuned with a corpus of over a thousand peer-reviewed articles in the field of structural biological and bio-inspired materials and can be prompted to recall information, assist with research tasks, and function as an engine for creativity. The model has proven that it is able to accurately recall information about biological materials and is further enhanced with enhanced reasoning ability, as well as with retrieval-augmented generation to incorporate new data during generation that can also help to traceback sources, update the knowledge base, and connect knowledge domains. BioinspiredLLM also has been shown to develop sound hypotheses regarding biological materials design and remarkably so for materials that have never been explicitly studied before. Lastly, the model showed impressive promise in collaborating with other generative artificial intelligence models in a workflow that can reshape the traditional materials design process. This collaborative generative artificial intelligence method can stimulate and enhance bio-inspired materials design workflows. Biological materials are at a critical intersection of multiple scientific fields and models like BioinspiredLLM help to connect knowledge domains.

In this paper we address the challenge of extracting scientific references from patents. We approach the problem as a sequence labelling task and investigate the merits of BERT models to the extraction of these long sequences. References in patents to scientific literature are relevant to study the connection between science and industry. Most prior work only uses the front-page citations for this analysis, which are provided in the metadata of patent archives. In this paper we build on prior work using Conditional Random Fields (CRF) and Flair for reference extraction. We improve the quality of the training data and train three BERT-based models on the labelled data (BERT, bioBERT, sciBERT). We find that the improved training data leads to a large improvement in the quality of the trained models. In addition, the BERT models beat CRF and Flair, with recall scores around 97% obtained with cross validation. With the best model we label a large collection of 33 thousand patents, extract the citations, and match them to publications in the Web of Science database. We extract 50% more references than with the old training data and methods: 735 thousand references in total. With these patent-publication links, follow-up research will further analyze which types of scientific work lead to inventions.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have gained traction across different domains such as transportation, bio-informatics, language processing, and computer vision. However, there is a noticeable absence of research on applying GNNs to supply chain networks. Supply chain networks are inherently graph-like in structure, making them prime candidates for applying GNN methodologies. This opens up a world of possibilities for optimizing, predicting, and solving even the most complex supply chain problems. A major setback in this approach lies in the absence of real-world benchmark datasets to facilitate the research and resolution of supply chain problems using GNNs. To address the issue, we present a real-world benchmark dataset for temporal tasks, obtained from one of the leading FMCG companies in Bangladesh, focusing on supply chain planning for production purposes. The dataset includes temporal data as node features to enable sales predictions, production planning, and the identification of factory issues. By utilizing this dataset, researchers can employ GNNs to address numerous supply chain problems, thereby advancing the field of supply chain analytics and planning. Source: https://github.com/CIOL-SUST/SupplyGraph

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

Generative AI applications, such as ChatGPT or DALL-E, have shown the world their impressive capabilities in generating human-like text or image. Diving deeper, the science stakeholder for those AI applications are Deep Generative Models, a.k.a DGMs, which are designed to learn the underlying distribution of the data and generate new data points that are statistically similar to the original dataset. One critical question is raised: how can we leverage DGMs into morden retail supply chain realm? To address this question, this paper expects to provide a comprehensive review of DGMs and discuss their existing and potential usecases in retail supply chain, by (1) providing a taxonomy and overview of state-of-the-art DGMs and their variants, (2) reviewing existing DGM applications in retail supply chain from a end-to-end view of point, and (3) discussing insights and potential directions on how DGMs can be further utilized on solving retail supply chain problems.

We introduce a convolutional neural network that operates directly on graphs. These networks allow end-to-end learning of prediction pipelines whose inputs are graphs of arbitrary size and shape. The architecture we present generalizes standard molecular feature extraction methods based on circular fingerprints. We show that these data-driven features are more interpretable, and have better predictive performance on a variety of tasks.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

To deduce new facts on a knowledge graph (KG), a link predictor learns from the graph structure and collects local evidence to find the answer to a given query. However, existing methods suffer from a severe scalability problem due to the utilization of the whole KG for prediction, which hinders their promise on large scale KGs and cannot be directly addressed by vanilla sampling methods. In this work, we propose the one-shot-subgraph link prediction to achieve efficient and adaptive prediction. The design principle is that, instead of directly acting on the whole KG, the prediction procedure is decoupled into two steps, i.e., (i) extracting only one subgraph according to the query and (ii) predicting on this single, query dependent subgraph. We reveal that the non-parametric and computation-efficient heuristics Personalized PageRank (PPR) can effectively identify the potential answers and supporting evidence. With efficient subgraph-based prediction, we further introduce the automated searching of the optimal configurations in both data and model spaces. Empirically, we achieve promoted efficiency and leading performances on five large-scale benchmarks. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/one-shot-subgraph.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Recent advances in machine learning have made significant contributions to drug discovery. Deep neural networks in particular have been demonstrated to provide significant boosts in predictive power when inferring the properties and activities of small-molecule compounds. However, the applicability of these techniques has been limited by the requirement for large amounts of training data. In this work, we demonstrate how one-shot learning can be used to significantly lower the amounts of data required to make meaningful predictions in drug discovery applications. We introduce a new architecture, the residual LSTM embedding, that, when combined with graph convolutional neural networks, significantly improves the ability to learn meaningful distance metrics over small-molecules. We open source all models introduced in this work as part of DeepChem, an open-source framework for deep-learning in drug discovery.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical problem in web search, recommendation systems and online advertisement displaying. Learning good feature interactions is essential to reflect user's preferences to items. Many CTR prediction models based on deep learning have been proposed, but researchers usually only pay attention to whether state-of-the-art performance is achieved, and ignore whether the entire framework is reasonable. In this work, we use the discrete choice model in economics to redefine the CTR prediction problem, and propose a general neural network framework built on self-attention mechanism. It is found that most existing CTR prediction models align with our proposed general framework. We also examine the expressive power and model complexity of our proposed framework, along with potential extensions to some existing models. And finally we demonstrate and verify our insights through some experimental results on public datasets.

Recommendations are broadly used in marketplaces to match users with items relevant to their interests and needs. To understand user intent and tailor recommendations to their needs, we use deep learning to explore various heterogeneous data available in marketplaces. This paper focuses on the challenge of measuring recommender performance and summarizes the online experiment results with several promising types of deep neural network recommenders - hybrid item representation models combining features from user engagement and content, sequence-based models, and multi-armed bandit models that optimize user engagement by re-ranking proposals from multiple submodels. The recommenders are currently running in production at the leading Norwegian marketplace FINN.no and serves over one million visitors everyday.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Material selection plays a pivotal role in many industries, from manufacturing to construction. Material selection is usually carried out after several cycles of conceptual design, during which designers iteratively refine the design solution and the intended manufacturing approach. In design research, material selection is typically treated as an optimization problem with a single correct answer. Moreover, it is also often restricted to specific types of objects or design functions, which can make the selection process computationally expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we introduce MSEval, a novel dataset which is comprised of expert material evaluations across a variety of design briefs and criteria. This data is designed to serve as a benchmark to facilitate the evaluation and modification of machine learning models in the context of material selection for conceptual design.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Counterfactual statements describe events that did not or cannot take place. We consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) in product reviews. For this purpose, we annotate a multilingual CFD dataset from Amazon product reviews covering counterfactual statements written in English, German, and Japanese languages. The dataset is unique as it contains counterfactuals in multiple languages, covers a new application area of e-commerce reviews, and provides high quality professional annotations. We train CFD models using different text representation methods and classifiers. We find that these models are robust against the selectional biases introduced due to cue phrase-based sentence selection. Moreover, our CFD dataset is compatible with prior datasets and can be merged to learn accurate CFD models. Applying machine translation on English counterfactual examples to create multilingual data performs poorly, demonstrating the language-specificity of this problem, which has been ignored so far.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Molecular property prediction has gained significant attention due to its transformative potential in multiple scientific disciplines. Conventionally, a molecule graph can be represented either as a graph-structured data or a SMILES text. Recently, the rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) has revolutionized the field of NLP. Although it is natural to utilize LLMs to assist in understanding molecules represented by SMILES, the exploration of how LLMs will impact molecular property prediction is still in its early stage. In this work, we advance towards this objective through two perspectives: zero/few-shot molecular classification, and using the new explanations generated by LLMs as representations of molecules. To be specific, we first prompt LLMs to do in-context molecular classification and evaluate their performance. After that, we employ LLMs to generate semantically enriched explanations for the original SMILES and then leverage that to fine-tune a small-scale LM model for multiple downstream tasks. The experimental results highlight the superiority of text explanations as molecular representations across multiple benchmark datasets, and confirm the immense potential of LLMs in molecular property prediction tasks. Codes are available at https://github.com/ChnQ/LLM4Mol.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

The recent success of large foundation models in artificial intelligence has prompted the emergence of chemical pre-trained models. Despite the growing interest in large molecular pre-trained models that provide informative representations for downstream tasks, attempts for multimodal pre-training approaches on the molecule domain were limited. To address this, we present a novel multimodal molecular pre-trained model that incorporates the modalities of structure and biochemical properties, drawing inspiration from recent advances in multimodal learning techniques. Our proposed model pipeline of data handling and training objectives aligns the structure/property features in a common embedding space, which enables the model to regard bidirectional information between the molecules' structure and properties. These contributions emerge synergistic knowledge, allowing us to tackle both multimodal and unimodal downstream tasks through a single model. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our model shows remarkable capabilities in solving various meaningful chemical challenges, including conditional molecule generation, property prediction, molecule classification, and reaction prediction.

In an era of information explosion, recommender systems are vital tools to deliver personalized recommendations for users. The key of recommender systems is to forecast users' future behaviors based on previous user-item interactions. Due to their strong expressive power of capturing high-order connectivities in user-item interaction data, recent years have witnessed a rising interest in leveraging Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to boost the prediction performance of recommender systems. Nonetheless, classic Matrix Factorization (MF) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) approaches still play an important role in real-world large-scale recommender systems due to their scalability advantages. Despite the existence of GNN-acceleration solutions, it remains an open question whether GNN-based recommender systems can scale as efficiently as classic MF and DNN methods. In this paper, we propose a Linear-Time Graph Neural Network (LTGNN) to scale up GNN-based recommender systems to achieve comparable scalability as classic MF approaches while maintaining GNNs' powerful expressiveness for superior prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments and ablation studies are presented to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed algorithm. Our implementation based on PyTorch is available.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

In a fashion e-commerce platform where customers can't physically examine the products on their own, being able to see other customers' text and image reviews of the product is critical while making purchase decisions. Given the high reliance on these reviews, over the years we have observed customers proactively sharing their reviews. With an increase in the coverage of User Generated Content (UGC), there has been a corresponding increase in the number of customer images. It is thus imperative to display the most relevant images on top as it may influence users' online shopping choices and behavior. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective training procedure for ranking customer images. We created a dataset consisting of Myntra (A Major Indian Fashion e-commerce company) studio posts and highly engaged (upvotes/downvotes) UGC images as our starting point and used selected distortion techniques on the images of the above dataset to bring their quality at par with those of bad UGC images. We train our network to rank bad-quality images lower than high-quality ones. Our proposed method outperforms the baseline models on two metrics, namely correlation coefficient, and accuracy, by substantial margins.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

Stock prediction is a topic undergoing intense study for many years. Finance experts and mathematicians have been working on a way to predict the future stock price so as to decide to buy the stock or sell it to make profit. Stock experts or economists, usually analyze on the previous stock values using technical indicators, sentiment analysis etc to predict the future stock price. In recent years, many researches have extensively used machine learning for predicting the stock behaviour. In this paper we propose data driven deep learning approach to predict the future stock value with the previous price with the feature extraction property of convolutional neural network and to use Neural Arithmetic Logic Units with it.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction, which aims to predict the probability of a user clicking on an ad or an item, is critical to many online applications such as online advertising and recommender systems. The problem is very challenging since (1) the input features (e.g., the user id, user age, item id, item category) are usually sparse and high-dimensional, and (2) an effective prediction relies on high-order combinatorial features (a.k.a. cross features), which are very time-consuming to hand-craft by domain experts and are impossible to be enumerated. Therefore, there have been efforts in finding low-dimensional representations of the sparse and high-dimensional raw features and their meaningful combinations. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient method called the AutoInt to automatically learn the high-order feature interactions of input features. Our proposed algorithm is very general, which can be applied to both numerical and categorical input features. Specifically, we map both the numerical and categorical features into the same low-dimensional space. Afterwards, a multi-head self-attentive neural network with residual connections is proposed to explicitly model the feature interactions in the low-dimensional space. With different layers of the multi-head self-attentive neural networks, different orders of feature combinations of input features can be modeled. The whole model can be efficiently fit on large-scale raw data in an end-to-end fashion. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that our proposed approach not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches for prediction but also offers good explainability. Code is available at: https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/RecommenderSystems.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Automated computational analysis of the vast chemical space is critical for numerous fields of research such as drug discovery and material science. Representation learning techniques have recently been employed with the primary objective of generating compact and informative numerical expressions of complex data. One approach to efficiently learn molecular representations is processing string-based notations of chemicals via natural language processing (NLP) algorithms. Majority of the methods proposed so far utilize SMILES notations for this purpose; however, SMILES is associated with numerous problems related to validity and robustness, which may prevent the model from effectively uncovering the knowledge hidden in the data. In this study, we propose SELFormer, a transformer architecture-based chemical language model that utilizes a 100% valid, compact and expressive notation, SELFIES, as input, in order to learn flexible and high-quality molecular representations. SELFormer is pre-trained on two million drug-like compounds and fine-tuned for diverse molecular property prediction tasks. Our performance evaluation has revealed that, SELFormer outperforms all competing methods, including graph learning-based approaches and SMILES-based chemical language models, on predicting aqueous solubility of molecules and adverse drug reactions. We also visualized molecular representations learned by SELFormer via dimensionality reduction, which indicated that even the pre-trained model can discriminate molecules with differing structural properties. We shared SELFormer as a programmatic tool, together with its datasets and pre-trained models. Overall, our research demonstrates the benefit of using the SELFIES notations in the context of chemical language modeling and opens up new possibilities for the design and discovery of novel drug candidates with desired features.

We introduce a new visual-interactive tool: Explainable Labeling Assistant (XLabel) that takes an explainable machine learning approach to data labeling. The main component of XLabel is the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a predictive model that can calculate the contribution of each input feature towards the final prediction. As a case study, we use XLabel to predict the labels of four non-communicable diseases (NCDs): diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and dyslipidemia. We demonstrate that EBM is an excellent choice of predictive model by comparing it against a rule-based and four other machine learning models. By performing 5-fold cross-validation on 427 medical records, EBM's prediction accuracy, precision, and F1-score are greater than 0.95 in all four NCDs. It performed as well as two black-box models and outperformed the other models in these metrics. In an additional experiment, when 40% of the records were intentionally mislabeled, EBM could recall the correct labels of more than 90% of these records.

Large-scale recommendation systems are characterized by their reliance on high cardinality, heterogeneous features and the need to handle tens of billions of user actions on a daily basis. Despite being trained on huge volume of data with thousands of features, most Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) in industry fail to scale with compute. Inspired by success achieved by Transformers in language and vision domains, we revisit fundamental design choices in recommendation systems. We reformulate recommendation problems as sequential transduction tasks within a generative modeling framework (``Generative Recommenders''), and propose a new architecture, HSTU, designed for high cardinality, non-stationary streaming recommendation data. HSTU outperforms baselines over synthetic and public datasets by up to 65.8\% in NDCG, and is 5.3x to 15.2x faster than FlashAttention2-based Transformers on 8192 length sequences. HSTU-based Generative Recommenders, with 1.5 trillion parameters, improve metrics in online A/B tests by 12.4\% and have been deployed on multiple surfaces of a large internet platform with billions of users. More importantly, the model quality of Generative Recommenders empirically scales as a power-law of training compute across three orders of magnitude, up to GPT-3/LLaMa-2 scale, which reduces carbon footprint needed for future model developments, and further paves the way for the first foundational models in recommendations.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

Much of the world's most valued data is stored in relational databases and data warehouses, where the data is organized into many tables connected by primary-foreign key relations. However, building machine learning models using this data is both challenging and time consuming. The core problem is that no machine learning method is capable of learning on multiple tables interconnected by primary-foreign key relations. Current methods can only learn from a single table, so the data must first be manually joined and aggregated into a single training table, the process known as feature engineering. Feature engineering is slow, error prone and leads to suboptimal models. Here we introduce an end-to-end deep representation learning approach to directly learn on data laid out across multiple tables. We name our approach Relational Deep Learning (RDL). The core idea is to view relational databases as a temporal, heterogeneous graph, with a node for each row in each table, and edges specified by primary-foreign key links. Message Passing Graph Neural Networks can then automatically learn across the graph to extract representations that leverage all input data, without any manual feature engineering. Relational Deep Learning leads to more accurate models that can be built much faster. To facilitate research in this area, we develop RelBench, a set of benchmark datasets and an implementation of Relational Deep Learning. The data covers a wide spectrum, from discussions on Stack Exchange to book reviews on the Amazon Product Catalog. Overall, we define a new research area that generalizes graph machine learning and broadens its applicability to a wide set of AI use cases.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

In the past few years, the growth of e-commerce and digital marketing in Vietnam has generated a huge volume of opinionated data. Analyzing those data would provide enterprises with insight for better business decisions. In this work, as part of the Advosights project, we study sentiment analysis of product reviews in Vietnamese. The final solution is based on Self-attention neural networks, a flexible architecture for text classification task with about 90.16% of accuracy in 0.0124 second, a very fast inference time.

In the early 2000s, renowned chef Heston Blumenthal formulated his "food pairing" hypothesis, positing that if foods share many flavor compounds, then they tend to taste good when eaten together. In 2011, Ahn et al. conducted a study using a dataset of recipes, ingredients, and flavor compounds, finding that, in Western cuisine, ingredients in recipes often share more flavor compounds than expected by chance, indicating a natural tendency towards food pairing. Building upon Ahn's research, our work applies state-of-the-art collaborative filtering techniques to the dataset, providing a tool that can recommend new foods to add in recipes, retrieve missing ingredients and advise against certain combinations. We create our recommender in two ways, by taking into account ingredients appearances in recipes or shared flavor compounds between foods. While our analysis confirms the existence of food pairing, the recipe-based recommender performs significantly better than the flavor-based one, leading to the conclusion that food pairing is just one of the principles to take into account when creating recipes. Furthermore, and more interestingly, we find that food pairing in data is mostly due to trivial couplings of very similar ingredients, leading to a reconsideration of its current role in recipes, from being an already existing feature to a key to open up new scenarios in gastronomy. Our flavor-based recommender can thus leverage this novel concept and provide a new tool to lead culinary innovation.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Recently, neural networks have been widely used in e-commerce recommender systems, owing to the rapid development of deep learning. We formalize the recommender system as a sequential recommendation problem, intending to predict the next items that the user might be interacted with. Recent works usually give an overall embedding from a user's behavior sequence. However, a unified user embedding cannot reflect the user's multiple interests during a period. In this paper, we propose a novel controllable multi-interest framework for the sequential recommendation, called ComiRec. Our multi-interest module captures multiple interests from user behavior sequences, which can be exploited for retrieving candidate items from the large-scale item pool. These items are then fed into an aggregation module to obtain the overall recommendation. The aggregation module leverages a controllable factor to balance the recommendation accuracy and diversity. We conduct experiments for the sequential recommendation on two real-world datasets, Amazon and Taobao. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art models. Our framework has also been successfully deployed on the offline Alibaba distributed cloud platform.

Over the past decade, tremendous progress has been made in Recommender Systems (RecSys) for well-known tasks such as next-item and next-basket prediction. On the other hand, the recently proposed next-period recommendation (NPR) task is not covered as much. Current works about NPR are mostly based around distinct problem formulations, methods, and proprietary datasets, making solutions difficult to reproduce. In this article, we aim to fill the gap in RecSys methods evaluation on the NPR task using publicly available datasets and (1) introduce the TTRS, a large-scale financial transactions dataset suitable for RecSys methods evaluation; (2) benchmark popular RecSys approaches on several datasets for the NPR task. When performing our analysis, we found a strong repetitive consumption pattern in several real-world datasets. With this setup, our results suggest that the repetitive nature of data is still hard to generalize for the evaluated RecSys methods, and novel item prediction performance is still questionable.

Writing an ad text that attracts people and persuades them to click or act is essential for the success of search engine advertising. Therefore, ad creators must consider various aspects of advertising appeals (A^3) such as the price, product features, and quality. However, products and services exhibit unique effective A^3 for different industries. In this work, we focus on exploring the effective A^3 for different industries with the aim of assisting the ad creation process. To this end, we created a dataset of advertising appeals and used an existing model that detects various aspects for ad texts. Our experiments demonstrated that different industries have their own effective A^3 and that the identification of the A^3 contributes to the estimation of advertising performance.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Generating novel molecules with higher properties than the training space, namely the out-of-distribution generation, is important for {de~novo} drug design. However, it is not easy for distribution learning-based models, for example diffusion models, to solve this challenge as these methods are designed to fit the distribution of training data as close as possible. In this paper, we show that Bayesian flow network is capable of effortlessly generating high quality out-of-distribution samples that meet several scenarios. We introduce a semi-autoregressive training/sampling method that helps to enhance the model performance and surpass the state-of-the-art models.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Multi-task learning (MTL) has been successfully used in many real-world applications, which aims to simultaneously solve multiple tasks with a single model. The general idea of multi-task learning is designing kinds of global parameter sharing mechanism and task-specific feature extractor to improve the performance of all tasks. However, challenge still remains in balancing the trade-off of various tasks since model performance is sensitive to the relationships between them. Less correlated or even conflict tasks will deteriorate the performance by introducing unhelpful or negative information. Therefore, it is important to efficiently exploit and learn fine-grained feature representation corresponding to each task. In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Pattern Extraction Multi-task (APEM) framework, which is adaptive and flexible for large-scale industrial application. APEM is able to fully utilize the feature information by learning the interactions between the input feature fields and extracted corresponding tasks-specific information. We first introduce a DeepAuto Group Transformer module to automatically and efficiently enhance the feature expressivity with a modified set attention mechanism and a Squeeze-and-Excitation operation. Second, explicit Pattern Selector is introduced to further enable selectively feature representation learning by adaptive task-indicator vectors. Empirical evaluations show that APEM outperforms the state-of-the-art MTL methods on public and real-world financial services datasets. More importantly, we explore the online performance of APEM in a real industrial-level recommendation scenario.

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

Foundation models have been transformational in machine learning fields such as natural language processing and computer vision. Similar success in atomic property prediction has been limited due to the challenges of training effective models across multiple chemical domains. To address this, we introduce Joint Multi-domain Pre-training (JMP), a supervised pre-training strategy that simultaneously trains on multiple datasets from different chemical domains, treating each dataset as a unique pre-training task within a multi-task framework. Our combined training dataset consists of sim120M systems from OC20, OC22, ANI-1x, and Transition-1x. We evaluate performance and generalization by fine-tuning over a diverse set of downstream tasks and datasets including: QM9, rMD17, MatBench, QMOF, SPICE, and MD22. JMP demonstrates an average improvement of 59% over training from scratch, and matches or sets state-of-the-art on 34 out of 40 tasks. Our work highlights the potential of pre-training strategies that utilize diverse data to advance property prediction across chemical domains, especially for low-data tasks.

Traditional cooking recipes follow a structure which can be modelled very well if the rules and semantics of the different sections of the recipe text are analyzed and represented accurately. We propose a structure that can accurately represent the recipe as well as a pipeline to infer the best representation of the recipe in this uniform structure. The Ingredients section in a recipe typically lists down the ingredients required and corresponding attributes such as quantity, temperature, and processing state. This can be modelled by defining these attributes and their values. The physical entities which make up a recipe can be broadly classified into utensils, ingredients and their combinations that are related by cooking techniques. The instruction section lists down a series of events in which a cooking technique or process is applied upon these utensils and ingredients. We model these relationships in the form of tuples. Thus, using a combination of these methods we model cooking recipe in the dataset RecipeDB to show the efficacy of our method. This mined information model can have several applications which include translating recipes between languages, determining similarity between recipes, generation of novel recipes and estimation of the nutritional profile of recipes. For the purpose of recognition of ingredient attributes, we train the Named Entity Relationship (NER) models and analyze the inferences with the help of K-Means clustering. Our model presented with an F1 score of 0.95 across all datasets. We use a similar NER tagging model for labelling cooking techniques (F1 score = 0.88) and utensils (F1 score = 0.90) within the instructions section. Finally, we determine the temporal sequence of relationships between ingredients, utensils and cooking techniques for modeling the instruction steps.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

Supervised learning on molecules has incredible potential to be useful in chemistry, drug discovery, and materials science. Luckily, several promising and closely related neural network models invariant to molecular symmetries have already been described in the literature. These models learn a message passing algorithm and aggregation procedure to compute a function of their entire input graph. At this point, the next step is to find a particularly effective variant of this general approach and apply it to chemical prediction benchmarks until we either solve them or reach the limits of the approach. In this paper, we reformulate existing models into a single common framework we call Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs) and explore additional novel variations within this framework. Using MPNNs we demonstrate state of the art results on an important molecular property prediction benchmark; these results are strong enough that we believe future work should focus on datasets with larger molecules or more accurate ground truth labels.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

E-commerce authoring involves creating attractive, abundant, and targeted promotional content to drive product sales. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) introduces an innovative paradigm, offering a unified solution to address various authoring tasks within this scenario. However, mainstream LLMs trained on general corpora with common sense knowledge reveal limitations in fitting complex and personalized features unique to e-commerce products and customers. Furthermore, LLMs like GPT-3.5 necessitate remote accessibility, raising concerns about safeguarding voluminous customer privacy data during transmission. This paper proposes the LLaMA-E, the unified and customized instruction-following language models focusing on diverse e-commerce authoring tasks. Specifically, the domain experts create the seed instruction set from the tasks of ads generation, query-enhanced product title rewriting, product classification, purchase intent speculation, and general Q&A. These tasks enable the models to comprehensively understand precise e-commerce authoring knowledge by interleaving features covering typical service aspects of customers, sellers, and platforms. The GPT-3.5 is introduced as a teacher model, which expands the seed instructions to form a training set for the LLaMA-E models with various scales. The experimental results show that the proposed LLaMA-E models achieve state-of-the-art results in quantitative and qualitative evaluations, also exhibiting the advantage in zero-shot scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to serve the LLMs to specific e-commerce authoring scenarios.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

The final goal of all industrial machine learning (ML) projects is to develop ML products and rapidly bring them into production. However, it is highly challenging to automate and operationalize ML products and thus many ML endeavors fail to deliver on their expectations. The paradigm of Machine Learning Operations (MLOps) addresses this issue. MLOps includes several aspects, such as best practices, sets of concepts, and development culture. However, MLOps is still a vague term and its consequences for researchers and professionals are ambiguous. To address this gap, we conduct mixed-method research, including a literature review, a tool review, and expert interviews. As a result of these investigations, we provide an aggregated overview of the necessary principles, components, and roles, as well as the associated architecture and workflows. Furthermore, we furnish a definition of MLOps and highlight open challenges in the field. Finally, this work provides guidance for ML researchers and practitioners who want to automate and operate their ML products with a designated set of technologies.

We consider the problem of recommending relevant content to users of an internet platform in the form of lists of items, called slates. We introduce a variational Bayesian Recurrent Neural Net recommender system that acts on time series of interactions between the internet platform and the user, and which scales to real world industrial situations. The recommender system is tested both online on real users, and on an offline dataset collected from a Norwegian web-based marketplace, FINN.no, that is made public for research. This is one of the first publicly available datasets which includes all the slates that are presented to users as well as which items (if any) in the slates were clicked on. Such a data set allows us to move beyond the common assumption that implicitly assumes that users are considering all possible items at each interaction. Instead we build our likelihood using the items that are actually in the slate, and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches theoretically and in experiments. We also introduce a hierarchical prior for the item parameters based on group memberships. Both item parameters and user preferences are learned probabilistically. Furthermore, we combine our model with bandit strategies to ensure learning, and introduce `in-slate Thompson Sampling' which makes use of the slates to maximise explorative opportunities. We show experimentally that explorative recommender strategies perform on par or above their greedy counterparts. Even without making use of exploration to learn more effectively, click rates increase simply because of improved diversity in the recommended slates.

Designing robust systems for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. Even more challenging is to build a system for constructing an optimum portfolio of stocks based on the forecasted future stock prices. We present a deep learning-based regression model built on a long-and-short-term memory network (LSTM) network that automatically scraps the web and extracts historical stock prices based on a stock's ticker name for a specified pair of start and end dates, and forecasts the future stock prices. We deploy the model on 75 significant stocks chosen from 15 critical sectors of the Indian stock market. For each of the stocks, the model is evaluated for its forecast accuracy. Moreover, the predicted values of the stock prices are used as the basis for investment decisions, and the returns on the investments are computed. Extensive results are presented on the performance of the model. The analysis of the results demonstrates the efficacy and effectiveness of the system and enables us to compare the profitability of the sectors from the point of view of the investors in the stock market.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

In embedding-based retrieval, Approximate Nearest Neighbor (ANN) search enables efficient retrieval of similar items from large-scale datasets. While maximizing recall of relevant items is usually the goal of retrieval systems, a low precision may lead to a poor search experience. Unlike lexical retrieval, which inherently limits the size of the retrieved set through keyword matching, dense retrieval via ANN search has no natural cutoff. Moreover, the cosine similarity scores of embedding vectors are often optimized via contrastive or ranking losses, which make them difficult to interpret. Consequently, relying on top-K or cosine-similarity cutoff is often insufficient to filter out irrelevant results effectively. This issue is prominent in product search, where the number of relevant products is often small. This paper introduces a novel relevance filtering component (called "Cosine Adapter") for embedding-based retrieval to address this challenge. Our approach maps raw cosine similarity scores to interpretable scores using a query-dependent mapping function. We then apply a global threshold on the mapped scores to filter out irrelevant results. We are able to significantly increase the precision of the retrieved set, at the expense of a small loss of recall. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated through experiments on both public MS MARCO dataset and internal Walmart product search data. Furthermore, online A/B testing on the Walmart site validates the practical value of our approach in real-world e-commerce settings.

Automatically constructing a food diary that tracks the ingredients consumed can help people follow a healthy diet. We tackle the problem of food ingredients recognition as a multi-label learning problem. We propose a method for adapting a highly performing state of the art CNN in order to act as a multi-label predictor for learning recipes in terms of their list of ingredients. We prove that our model is able to, given a picture, predict its list of ingredients, even if the recipe corresponding to the picture has never been seen by the model. We make public two new datasets suitable for this purpose. Furthermore, we prove that a model trained with a high variability of recipes and ingredients is able to generalize better on new data, and visualize how it specializes each of its neurons to different ingredients.

As global fertilizer application rates increase, high-quality datasets are paramount for comprehensive analyses to support informed decision-making and policy formulation in crucial areas such as food security or climate change. This study aims to fill existing data gaps by employing two machine learning models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and HistGradientBoosting algorithms to produce precise country-level predictions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus pentoxide (P_2O_5), and potassium oxide (K_2O) application rates. Subsequently, we created a comprehensive dataset of 5-arcmin resolution maps depicting the application rates of each fertilizer for 13 major crop groups from 1961 to 2019. The predictions were validated by both comparing with existing databases and by assessing the drivers of fertilizer application rates using the model's SHapley Additive exPlanations. This extensive dataset is poised to be a valuable resource for assessing fertilization trends, identifying the socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental drivers of fertilizer application rates, and serving as an input for various applications, including environmental modeling, causal analysis, fertilizer price predictions, and forecasting.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

The success of language models, especially transformer-based architectures, has trickled into other domains giving rise to "scientific language models" that operate on small molecules, proteins or polymers. In chemistry, language models contribute to accelerating the molecule discovery cycle as evidenced by promising recent findings in early-stage drug discovery. Here, we review the role of language models in molecular discovery, underlining their strength in de novo drug design, property prediction and reaction chemistry. We highlight valuable open-source software assets thus lowering the entry barrier to the field of scientific language modeling. Last, we sketch a vision for future molecular design that combines a chatbot interface with access to computational chemistry tools. Our contribution serves as a valuable resource for researchers, chemists, and AI enthusiasts interested in understanding how language models can and will be used to accelerate chemical discovery.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

Understanding protein solubility is essential for their functional applications. Computational methods for predicting protein solubility are crucial for reducing experimental costs and enhancing the efficiency and success rates of protein engineering. Existing methods either construct a supervised learning scheme on small-scale datasets with manually processed physicochemical properties, or blindly apply pre-trained protein language models to extract amino acid interaction information. The scale and quality of available training datasets leave significant room for improvement in terms of accuracy and generalization. To address these research gaps, we propose \sol, a novel deep learning method that combines pre-training and fine-tuning schemes for protein solubility prediction. ProtSolM integrates information from multiple dimensions, including physicochemical properties, amino acid sequences, and protein backbone structures. Our model is trained using \data, the largest solubility dataset that we have constructed. PDBSol includes over 60,000 protein sequences and structures. We provide a comprehensive leaderboard of existing statistical learning and deep learning methods on independent datasets with computational and experimental labels. ProtSolM achieved state-of-the-art performance across various evaluation metrics, demonstrating its potential to significantly advance the accuracy of protein solubility prediction.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

Recent research on explainable recommendation generally frames the task as a standard text generation problem, and evaluates models simply based on the textual similarity between the predicted and ground-truth explanations. However, this approach fails to consider one crucial aspect of the systems: whether their outputs accurately reflect the users' (post-purchase) sentiments, i.e., whether and why they would like and/or dislike the recommended items. To shed light on this issue, we introduce new datasets and evaluation methods that focus on the users' sentiments. Specifically, we construct the datasets by explicitly extracting users' positive and negative opinions from their post-purchase reviews using an LLM, and propose to evaluate systems based on whether the generated explanations 1) align well with the users' sentiments, and 2) accurately identify both positive and negative opinions of users on the target items. We benchmark several recent models on our datasets and demonstrate that achieving strong performance on existing metrics does not ensure that the generated explanations align well with the users' sentiments. Lastly, we find that existing models can provide more sentiment-aware explanations when the users' (predicted) ratings for the target items are directly fed into the models as input. We will release our code and datasets upon acceptance.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

Molecular representation is a foundational element in our understanding of the physical world. Its importance ranges from the fundamentals of chemical reactions to the design of new therapies and materials. Previous molecular machine learning models have employed strings, fingerprints, global features, and simple molecular graphs that are inherently information-sparse representations. However, as the complexity of prediction tasks increases, the molecular representation needs to encode higher fidelity information. This work introduces a novel approach to infusing quantum-chemical-rich information into molecular graphs via stereoelectronic effects. We show that the explicit addition of stereoelectronic interactions significantly improves the performance of molecular machine learning models. Furthermore, stereoelectronics-infused representations can be learned and deployed with a tailored double graph neural network workflow, enabling its application to any downstream molecular machine learning task. Finally, we show that the learned representations allow for facile stereoelectronic evaluation of previously intractable systems, such as entire proteins, opening new avenues of molecular design.

In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent ML / AI concepts, starting from natural language processes (NLP) applied to economic sectors' (textual) descriptions using embedding and autoencoders (AE), going through the classification of defaultable firms on the base of a wide range of economic features using gradient boosting machines (GBM) and calibrating their probabilities paying due attention to the treatment of unbalanced samples. Finally we assign credit ratings through genetic algorithms (differential evolution, DE). Model interpretability is achieved by implementing recent techniques such as SHAP and LIME, which explain predictions locally in features' space.

The discovery of novel materials and functional molecules can help to solve some of society's most urgent challenges, ranging from efficient energy harvesting and storage to uncovering novel pharmaceutical drug candidates. Traditionally matter engineering -- generally denoted as inverse design -- was based massively on human intuition and high-throughput virtual screening. The last few years have seen the emergence of significant interest in computer-inspired designs based on evolutionary or deep learning methods. The major challenge here is that the standard strings molecular representation SMILES shows substantial weaknesses in that task because large fractions of strings do not correspond to valid molecules. Here, we solve this problem at a fundamental level and introduce SELFIES (SELF-referencIng Embedded Strings), a string-based representation of molecules which is 100\% robust. Every SELFIES string corresponds to a valid molecule, and SELFIES can represent every molecule. SELFIES can be directly applied in arbitrary machine learning models without the adaptation of the models; each of the generated molecule candidates is valid. In our experiments, the model's internal memory stores two orders of magnitude more diverse molecules than a similar test with SMILES. Furthermore, as all molecules are valid, it allows for explanation and interpretation of the internal working of the generative models.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

The complex nature of big biological systems pushed some scientists to classify its understanding under the inconceivable missions. Different leveled challenges complicated this task, one of is the prediction of a protein's function. In recent years, significant progress has been made in this field through the development of various machine learning approaches. However, most existing methods formulate the task as a multi-classification problem, i.e assigning predefined labels to proteins. In this work, we propose a novel approach, Prot2Text, which predicts a protein function's in a free text style, moving beyond the conventional binary or categorical classifications. By combining Graph Neural Networks(GNNs) and Large Language Models(LLMs), in an encoder-decoder framework, our model effectively integrates diverse data types including proteins' sequences, structures, and textual annotations. This multimodal approach allows for a holistic representation of proteins' functions, enabling the generation of detailed and accurate descriptions. To evaluate our model, we extracted a multimodal protein dataset from SwissProt, and demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of Prot2Text. These results highlight the transformative impact of multimodal models, specifically the fusion of GNNs and LLMs, empowering researchers with powerful tools for more accurate prediction of proteins' functions. The code, the models and a demo will be publicly released.

Machine learning especially deep neural networks have achieved great success but many of them often rely on a number of labeled samples for supervision. As sufficient labeled training data are not always ready due to e.g., continuously emerging prediction targets and costly sample annotation in real world applications, machine learning with sample shortage is now being widely investigated. Among all these studies, many prefer to utilize auxiliary information including those in the form of Knowledge Graph (KG) to reduce the reliance on labeled samples. In this survey, we have comprehensively reviewed over 90 papers about KG-aware research for two major sample shortage settings -- zero-shot learning (ZSL) where some classes to be predicted have no labeled samples, and few-shot learning (FSL) where some classes to be predicted have only a small number of labeled samples that are available. We first introduce KGs used in ZSL and FSL as well as their construction methods, and then systematically categorize and summarize KG-aware ZSL and FSL methods, dividing them into different paradigms such as the mapping-based, the data augmentation, the propagation-based and the optimization-based. We next present different applications, including not only KG augmented prediction tasks such as image classification, question answering, text classification and knowledge extraction, but also KG completion tasks, and some typical evaluation resources for each task. We eventually discuss some challenges and open problems from different perspectives.

Motivation: The development of novel compounds targeting proteins of interest is one of the most important tasks in the pharmaceutical industry. Deep generative models have been applied to targeted molecular design and have shown promising results. Recently, target-specific molecule generation has been viewed as a translation between the protein language and the chemical language. However, such a model is limited by the availability of interacting protein-ligand pairs. On the other hand, large amounts of unlabeled protein sequences and chemical compounds are available and have been used to train language models that learn useful representations. In this study, we propose exploiting pretrained biochemical language models to initialize (i.e. warm start) targeted molecule generation models. We investigate two warm start strategies: (i) a one-stage strategy where the initialized model is trained on targeted molecule generation (ii) a two-stage strategy containing a pre-finetuning on molecular generation followed by target specific training. We also compare two decoding strategies to generate compounds: beam search and sampling. Results: The results show that the warm-started models perform better than a baseline model trained from scratch. The two proposed warm-start strategies achieve similar results to each other with respect to widely used metrics from benchmarks. However, docking evaluation of the generated compounds for a number of novel proteins suggests that the one-stage strategy generalizes better than the two-stage strategy. Additionally, we observe that beam search outperforms sampling in both docking evaluation and benchmark metrics for assessing compound quality. Availability and implementation: The source code is available at https://github.com/boun-tabi/biochemical-lms-for-drug-design and the materials are archived in Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6832145

As machine learning technology gets applied to actual products and solutions, new challenges have emerged. Models unexpectedly fail to generalize to small changes in the distribution, tend to be confident on novel data they have never seen, or cannot communicate the rationale behind their decisions effectively with the end users. Collectively, we face a trustworthiness issue with the current machine learning technology. This textbook on Trustworthy Machine Learning (TML) covers a theoretical and technical background of four key topics in TML: Out-of-Distribution Generalization, Explainability, Uncertainty Quantification, and Evaluation of Trustworthiness. We discuss important classical and contemporary research papers of the aforementioned fields and uncover and connect their underlying intuitions. The book evolved from the homonymous course at the University of T\"ubingen, first offered in the Winter Semester of 2022/23. It is meant to be a stand-alone product accompanied by code snippets and various pointers to further sources on topics of TML. The dedicated website of the book is https://trustworthyml.io/.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

This paper presents our approach to accelerate computer architecture simulation by leveraging machine learning techniques. Traditional computer architecture simulations are time-consuming, making it challenging to explore different design choices efficiently. Our proposed model utilizes a combination of application features and micro-architectural features to predict the performance of an application. These features are derived from simulations of a small portion of the application. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by building and evaluating a machine learning model that offers significant speedup in architectural exploration. This model demonstrates the ability to predict IPC values for the testing data with a root mean square error of less than 0.1.

In the Venture Capital(VC) industry, predicting the success of startups is challenging due to limited financial data and the need for subjective revenue forecasts. Previous methods based on time series analysis or deep learning often fall short as they fail to incorporate crucial inter-company relationships such as competition and collaboration. Regarding the issues, we propose a novel approach using GrahphRAG augmented time series model. With GraphRAG, time series predictive methods are enhanced by integrating these vital relationships into the analysis framework, allowing for a more dynamic understanding of the startup ecosystem in venture capital. Our experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first application work of GraphRAG.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

The task of chemical reaction predictions (CRPs) plays a pivotal role in advancing drug discovery and material science. However, its effectiveness is constrained by the vast and uncertain chemical reaction space and challenges in capturing reaction selectivity, particularly due to existing methods' limitations in exploiting the data's inherent knowledge. To address these challenges, we introduce a data-curated self-feedback knowledge elicitation approach. This method starts from iterative optimization of molecular representations and facilitates the extraction of knowledge on chemical reaction types (RTs). Then, we employ adaptive prompt learning to infuse the prior knowledge into the large language model (LLM). As a result, we achieve significant enhancements: a 14.2% increase in retrosynthesis prediction accuracy, a 74.2% rise in reagent prediction accuracy, and an expansion in the model's capability for handling multi-task chemical reactions. This research offers a novel paradigm for knowledge elicitation in scientific research and showcases the untapped potential of LLMs in CRPs.

Large language models (LLMs) such as generative pretrained transformers (GPTs) have shown potential for various commercial applications, but their applicability for materials design remains underexplored. In this article, we introduce AtomGPT, a model specifically developed for materials design based on transformer architectures, to demonstrate the capability for both atomistic property prediction and structure generation. We show that a combination of chemical and structural text descriptions can efficiently predict material properties with accuracy comparable to graph neural network models, including formation energies, electronic bandgaps from two different methods and superconducting transition temperatures. Furthermore, we demonstrate that AtomGPT can generate atomic structures for tasks such as designing new superconductors, with the predictions validated through density functional theory calculations. This work paves the way for leveraging LLMs in forward and inverse materials design, offering an efficient approach to the discovery and optimization of materials.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

We introduce a novel class of sample-based explanations we term high-dimensional representers, that can be used to explain the predictions of a regularized high-dimensional model in terms of importance weights for each of the training samples. Our workhorse is a novel representer theorem for general regularized high-dimensional models, which decomposes the model prediction in terms of contributions from each of the training samples: with positive (negative) values corresponding to positive (negative) impact training samples to the model's prediction. We derive consequences for the canonical instances of ell_1 regularized sparse models, and nuclear norm regularized low-rank models. As a case study, we further investigate the application of low-rank models in the context of collaborative filtering, where we instantiate high-dimensional representers for specific popular classes of models. Finally, we study the empirical performance of our proposed methods on three real-world binary classification datasets and two recommender system datasets. We also showcase the utility of high-dimensional representers in explaining model recommendations.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

In industry deep learning application, our manually labeled data has a certain number of noisy data. To solve this problem and achieve more than 90 score in dev dataset, we present a simple method to find the noisy data and re-label the noisy data by human, given the model predictions as references in human labeling. In this paper, we illustrate our idea for a broad set of deep learning tasks, includes classification, sequence tagging, object detection, sequence generation, click-through rate prediction. The dev dataset evaluation results and human evaluation results verify our idea.

In real-world systems, models are frequently updated as more data becomes available, and in addition to achieving high accuracy, the goal is to also maintain a low difference in predictions compared to the base model (i.e. predictive "churn"). If model retraining results in vastly different behavior, then it could cause negative effects in downstream systems, especially if this churn can be avoided with limited impact on model accuracy. In this paper, we show an equivalence between training with distillation using the base model as the teacher and training with an explicit constraint on the predictive churn. We then show that distillation performs strongly for low churn training against a number of recent baselines on a wide range of datasets and model architectures, including fully-connected networks, convolutional networks, and transformers.

Transformers have become the de-facto standard model in artificial intelligence since 2017 despite numerous shortcomings ranging from energy inefficiency to hallucinations. Research has made a lot of progress in improving elements of transformers, and, more generally, deep learning manifesting in many proposals for architectures, layers, optimization objectives, and optimization techniques. For researchers it is difficult to keep track of such developments on a broader level. We provide a comprehensive overview of the many important, recent works in these areas to those who already have a basic understanding of deep learning. Our focus differs from other works, as we target specifically novel, alternative potentially disruptive approaches to transformers as well as successful ideas of recent deep learning. We hope that such a holistic and unified treatment of influential, recent works and novel ideas helps researchers to form new connections between diverse areas of deep learning. We identify and discuss multiple patterns that summarize the key strategies for successful innovations over the last decade as well as works that can be seen as rising stars. Especially, we discuss attempts on how to improve on transformers covering (partially) proven methods such as state space models but also including far-out ideas in deep learning that seem promising despite not achieving state-of-the-art results. We also cover a discussion on recent state-of-the-art models such as OpenAI's GPT series and Meta's LLama models and, Google's Gemini model family.

In an industrial group like Safran, numerical simulations of physical phenomena are integral to most design processes. At Safran's corporate research center, we enhance these processes by developing fast and reliable surrogate models for various physics. We focus here on two technologies developed in recent years. The first is a physical reduced-order modeling method for non-linear structural mechanics and thermal analysis, used for calculating the lifespan of high-pressure turbine blades and performing heat analysis of high-pressure compressors. The second technology involves learning physics simulations with non-parameterized geometrical variability using classical machine learning tools, such as Gaussian process regression. Finally, we present our contributions to the open-source and open-data community.

In the last decade new ways of shopping online have increased the possibility of buying products and services more easily and faster than ever. In this new context, personality is a key determinant in the decision making of the consumer when shopping. The two main reasons are: firstly, a person's buying choices are influenced by psychological factors like impulsiveness, and secondly, some consumers may be more susceptible to making impulse purchases than others. To the best of our knowledge, the impact of personality factors on advertisements has been largely neglected at the level of recommender systems. This work proposes a highly innovative research which uses a personality perspective to determine the unique associations among the consumer's buying tendency and advert recommendations. As a matter of fact, the lack of a publicly available benchmark for computational advertising do not allow both the exploration of this intriguing research direction and the evaluation of state-of-the-art algorithms. We present the ADS Dataset, a publicly available benchmark for computational advertising enriched with Big-Five users' personality factors and 1,200 personal users' pictures. The proposed benchmark allows two main tasks: rating prediction over 300 real advertisements (i.e., Rich Media Ads, Image Ads, Text Ads) and click-through rate prediction. Moreover, this work carries out experiments, reviews various evaluation criteria used in the literature, and provides a library for each one of them within one integrated toolbox.

Graph generation is a critical task in numerous domains, including molecular design and social network analysis, due to its ability to model complex relationships and structured data. While most modern graph generative models utilize adjacency matrix representations, this work revisits an alternative approach that represents graphs as sequences of node set and edge set. We advocate for this approach due to its efficient encoding of graphs and propose a novel representation. Based on this representation, we introduce the Graph Generative Pre-trained Transformer (G2PT), an auto-regressive model that learns graph structures via next-token prediction. To further exploit G2PT's capabilities as a general-purpose foundation model, we explore fine-tuning strategies for two downstream applications: goal-oriented generation and graph property prediction. We conduct extensive experiments across multiple datasets. Results indicate that G2PT achieves superior generative performance on both generic graph and molecule datasets. Furthermore, G2PT exhibits strong adaptability and versatility in downstream tasks from molecular design to property prediction.

The success of machine learning algorithms generally depends on data representation, and we hypothesize that this is because different representations can entangle and hide more or less the different explanatory factors of variation behind the data. Although specific domain knowledge can be used to help design representations, learning with generic priors can also be used, and the quest for AI is motivating the design of more powerful representation-learning algorithms implementing such priors. This paper reviews recent work in the area of unsupervised feature learning and deep learning, covering advances in probabilistic models, auto-encoders, manifold learning, and deep networks. This motivates longer-term unanswered questions about the appropriate objectives for learning good representations, for computing representations (i.e., inference), and the geometrical connections between representation learning, density estimation and manifold learning.

We introduce Graph-Induced Sum-Product Networks (GSPNs), a new probabilistic framework for graph representation learning that can tractably answer probabilistic queries. Inspired by the computational trees induced by vertices in the context of message-passing neural networks, we build hierarchies of sum-product networks (SPNs) where the parameters of a parent SPN are learnable transformations of the a-posterior mixing probabilities of its children's sum units. Due to weight sharing and the tree-shaped computation graphs of GSPNs, we obtain the efficiency and efficacy of deep graph networks with the additional advantages of a probabilistic model. We show the model's competitiveness on scarce supervision scenarios, under missing data, and for graph classification in comparison to popular neural models. We complement the experiments with qualitative analyses on hyper-parameters and the model's ability to answer probabilistic queries.

Portfolio optimization has been a broad and intense area of interest for quantitative and statistical finance researchers and financial analysts. It is a challenging task to design a portfolio of stocks to arrive at the optimized values of the return and risk. This paper presents an algorithmic approach for designing optimum risk and eigen portfolios for five thematic sectors of the NSE of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Optimum risk and eigen portfolios for each sector are designed based on ten critical stocks from the sector. An LSTM model is designed for predicting future stock prices. Seven months after the portfolios were formed, on Aug 3, 2021, the actual returns of the portfolios are compared with the LSTM-predicted returns. The predicted and the actual returns indicate a very high-level accuracy of the LSTM model.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

In engineering design, navigating complex decision-making landscapes demands a thorough exploration of the design, performance, and constraint spaces, often impeded by resource-intensive simulations. Data-driven methods can mitigate this challenge by harnessing historical data to delineate feasible domains, accelerate optimization, or evaluate designs. However, the implementation of these methods usually demands machine-learning expertise and multiple trials to choose the right method and hyperparameters. This makes them less accessible for numerous engineering situations. Additionally, there is an inherent trade-off between training speed and accuracy, with faster methods sometimes compromising precision. In our paper, we demonstrate that a recently released general-purpose transformer-based classification model, TabPFN, is both fast and accurate. Notably, it requires no dataset-specific training to assess new tabular data. TabPFN is a Prior-Data Fitted Network, which undergoes a one-time offline training across a broad spectrum of synthetic datasets and performs in-context learning. We evaluated TabPFN's efficacy across eight engineering design classification problems, contrasting it with seven other algorithms, including a state-of-the-art AutoML method. For these classification challenges, TabPFN consistently outperforms in speed and accuracy. It is also the most data-efficient and provides the added advantage of being differentiable and giving uncertainty estimates. Our findings advocate for the potential of pre-trained models that learn from synthetic data and require no domain-specific tuning to make data-driven engineering design accessible to a broader community and open ways to efficient general-purpose models valid across applications. Furthermore, we share a benchmark problem set for evaluating new classification algorithms in engineering design.

Artificial intelligence is transforming computational materials science, improving the prediction of material properties, and accelerating the discovery of novel materials. Recently, publicly available material data repositories have grown rapidly. This growth encompasses not only more materials, but also a greater variety and quantity of their associated properties. Existing machine learning efforts in materials science focus primarily on single-modality tasks, i.e., relationships between materials and a single physical property, thus not taking advantage of the rich and multimodal set of material properties. Here, we introduce Multimodal Learning for Materials (MultiMat), which enables self-supervised multi-modality training of foundation models for materials. We demonstrate our framework's potential using data from the Materials Project database on multiple axes: (i) MultiMat achieves state-of-the-art performance for challenging material property prediction tasks; (ii) MultiMat enables novel and accurate material discovery via latent space similarity, enabling screening for stable materials with desired properties; and (iii) MultiMat encodes interpretable emergent features that may provide novel scientific insights.

Traditional drug design faces significant challenges due to inherent chemical and biological complexities, often resulting in high failure rates in clinical trials. Deep learning advancements, particularly generative models, offer potential solutions to these challenges. One promising algorithm is DrugGPT, a transformer-based model, that generates small molecules for input protein sequences. Although promising, it generates both chemically valid and invalid structures and does not incorporate the features of approved drugs, resulting in time-consuming and inefficient drug discovery. To address these issues, we introduce DrugGen, an enhanced model based on the DrugGPT structure. DrugGen is fine-tuned on approved drug-target interactions and optimized with proximal policy optimization. By giving reward feedback from protein-ligand binding affinity prediction using pre-trained transformers (PLAPT) and a customized invalid structure assessor, DrugGen significantly improves performance. Evaluation across multiple targets demonstrated that DrugGen achieves 100% valid structure generation compared to 95.5% with DrugGPT and produced molecules with higher predicted binding affinities (7.22 [6.30-8.07]) compared to DrugGPT (5.81 [4.97-6.63]) while maintaining diversity and novelty. Docking simulations further validate its ability to generate molecules targeting binding sites effectively. For example, in the case of fatty acid-binding protein 5 (FABP5), DrugGen generated molecules with superior docking scores (FABP5/11, -9.537 and FABP5/5, -8.399) compared to the reference molecule (Palmitic acid, -6.177). Beyond lead compound generation, DrugGen also shows potential for drug repositioning and creating novel pharmacophores for existing targets. By producing high-quality small molecules, DrugGen provides a high-performance medium for advancing pharmaceutical research and drug discovery.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

Click-through rate prediction is an essential task in industrial applications, such as online advertising. Recently deep learning based models have been proposed, which follow a similar Embedding\&MLP paradigm. In these methods large scale sparse input features are first mapped into low dimensional embedding vectors, and then transformed into fixed-length vectors in a group-wise manner, finally concatenated together to fed into a multilayer perceptron (MLP) to learn the nonlinear relations among features. In this way, user features are compressed into a fixed-length representation vector, in regardless of what candidate ads are. The use of fixed-length vector will be a bottleneck, which brings difficulty for Embedding\&MLP methods to capture user's diverse interests effectively from rich historical behaviors. In this paper, we propose a novel model: Deep Interest Network (DIN) which tackles this challenge by designing a local activation unit to adaptively learn the representation of user interests from historical behaviors with respect to a certain ad. This representation vector varies over different ads, improving the expressive ability of model greatly. Besides, we develop two techniques: mini-batch aware regularization and data adaptive activation function which can help training industrial deep networks with hundreds of millions of parameters. Experiments on two public datasets as well as an Alibaba real production dataset with over 2 billion samples demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed approaches, which achieve superior performance compared with state-of-the-art methods. DIN now has been successfully deployed in the online display advertising system in Alibaba, serving the main traffic.

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.