Daily Papers

Traffic prediction is essential for the progression of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and the vision of smart cities. While Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have shown promise in this domain by leveraging Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) integrated with either RNNs or Transformers, they present challenges such as computational complexity, gradient issues, and resource-intensiveness. This paper addresses these challenges, advocating for three main solutions: a node-embedding approach, time series decomposition, and periodicity learning. We introduce STLinear, a minimalist model architecture designed for optimized efficiency and performance. Unlike traditional STGNNs, STlinear operates fully locally, avoiding inter-node data exchanges, and relies exclusively on linear layers, drastically cutting computational demands. Our empirical studies on real-world datasets confirm STLinear's prowess, matching or exceeding the accuracy of leading STGNNs, but with significantly reduced complexity and computation overhead (more than 95% reduction in MACs per epoch compared to state-of-the-art STGNN baseline published in 2023). In summary, STLinear emerges as a potent, efficient alternative to conventional STGNNs, with profound implications for the future of ITS and smart city initiatives.

Despite the remarkable success achieved by neural networks, particularly those represented by MLP and Transformer, we reveal that they exhibit potential flaws in the modeling and reasoning of periodicity, i.e., they tend to memorize the periodic data rather than genuinely understanding the underlying principles of periodicity. However, periodicity is a crucial trait in various forms of reasoning and generalization, underpinning predictability across natural and engineered systems through recurring patterns in observations. In this paper, we propose FAN, a novel network architecture based on Fourier Analysis, which empowers the ability to efficiently model and reason about periodic phenomena. By introducing Fourier Series, the periodicity is naturally integrated into the structure and computational processes of the neural network, thus achieving a more accurate expression and prediction of periodic patterns. As a promising substitute to multi-layer perceptron (MLP), FAN can seamlessly replace MLP in various models with fewer parameters and FLOPs. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of FAN in modeling and reasoning about periodic functions, and the superiority and generalizability of FAN across a range of real-world tasks, including symbolic formula representation, time series forecasting, and language modeling.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

Previous literature offers limited clues on how to learn a periodic function using modern neural networks. We start with a study of the extrapolation properties of neural networks; we prove and demonstrate experimentally that the standard activations functions, such as ReLU, tanh, sigmoid, along with their variants, all fail to learn to extrapolate simple periodic functions. We hypothesize that this is due to their lack of a "periodic" inductive bias. As a fix of this problem, we propose a new activation, namely, x + sin^2(x), which achieves the desired periodic inductive bias to learn a periodic function while maintaining a favorable optimization property of the ReLU-based activations. Experimentally, we apply the proposed method to temperature and financial data prediction.

Time series analysis is a fundamental task in various application domains, and deep learning approaches have demonstrated remarkable performance in this area. However, many real-world time series data exhibit significant periodic or quasi-periodic dynamics that are often not adequately captured by existing deep learning-based solutions. This results in an incomplete representation of the underlying dynamic behaviors of interest. To address this gap, we propose an unsupervised method called Floss that automatically regularizes learned representations in the frequency domain. The Floss method first automatically detects major periodicities from the time series. It then employs periodic shift and spectral density similarity measures to learn meaningful representations with periodic consistency. In addition, Floss can be easily incorporated into both supervised, semi-supervised, and unsupervised learning frameworks. We conduct extensive experiments on common time series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection tasks to demonstrate the effectiveness of Floss. We incorporate Floss into several representative deep learning solutions to justify our design choices and demonstrate that it is capable of automatically discovering periodic dynamics and improving state-of-the-art deep learning models.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

We present an approach for estimating the period with which an action is repeated in a video. The crux of the approach lies in constraining the period prediction module to use temporal self-similarity as an intermediate representation bottleneck that allows generalization to unseen repetitions in videos in the wild. We train this model, called Repnet, with a synthetic dataset that is generated from a large unlabeled video collection by sampling short clips of varying lengths and repeating them with different periods and counts. This combination of synthetic data and a powerful yet constrained model, allows us to predict periods in a class-agnostic fashion. Our model substantially exceeds the state of the art performance on existing periodicity (PERTUBE) and repetition counting (QUVA) benchmarks. We also collect a new challenging dataset called Countix (~90 times larger than existing datasets) which captures the challenges of repetition counting in real-world videos. Project webpage: https://sites.google.com/view/repnet .

Recent work has proposed the linear representation hypothesis: that language models perform computation by manipulating one-dimensional representations of concepts ("features") in activation space. In contrast, we explore whether some language model representations may be inherently multi-dimensional. We begin by developing a rigorous definition of irreducible multi-dimensional features based on whether they can be decomposed into either independent or non-co-occurring lower-dimensional features. Motivated by these definitions, we design a scalable method that uses sparse autoencoders to automatically find multi-dimensional features in GPT-2 and Mistral 7B. These auto-discovered features include strikingly interpretable examples, e.g. circular features representing days of the week and months of the year. We identify tasks where these exact circles are used to solve computational problems involving modular arithmetic in days of the week and months of the year. Finally, we provide evidence that these circular features are indeed the fundamental unit of computation in these tasks with intervention experiments on Mistral 7B and Llama 3 8B, and we find further circular representations by breaking down the hidden states for these tasks into interpretable components.

Extending the context length of Language Models (LMs) by improving Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) has become a trend. While existing works mainly address RoPE's limitations within attention mechanism, this paper provides an analysis across nearly all parts of LMs, uncovering their adverse effects on length generalization for RoPE-based attention. Using Discrete Signal Processing theory, we show that RoPE enables periodic attention by implicitly achieving Non-Uniform Discrete Fourier Transform. However, this periodicity is undermined by the spectral damage caused by: 1) linear layers and activation functions outside of attention; 2) insufficiently trained frequency components brought by time-domain truncation. Building on our observations, we propose Fourier Position Embedding (FoPE), which enhances attention's frequency-domain properties to improve both its periodic extension and length generalization. FoPE constructs Fourier Series and zero-outs the destructive frequency components, increasing model robustness against the spectrum damage. Experiments across various model scales show that, within varying context windows, FoPE can maintain a more stable perplexity and a more consistent accuracy in a needle-in-haystack task compared to RoPE and ALiBi. Several analyses and ablations bring further support to our method and theoretical modeling.

We analyze continual learning on a sequence of separable linear classification tasks with binary labels. We show theoretically that learning with weak regularization reduces to solving a sequential max-margin problem, corresponding to a special case of the Projection Onto Convex Sets (POCS) framework. We then develop upper bounds on the forgetting and other quantities of interest under various settings with recurring tasks, including cyclic and random orderings of tasks. We discuss several practical implications to popular training practices like regularization scheduling and weighting. We point out several theoretical differences between our continual classification setting and a recently studied continual regression setting.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Recently, universal waveform generation tasks have been investigated conditioned on various out-of-distribution scenarios. Although GAN-based methods have shown their strength in fast waveform generation, they are vulnerable to train-inference mismatch scenarios such as two-stage text-to-speech. Meanwhile, diffusion-based models have shown their powerful generative performance in other domains; however, they stay out of the limelight due to slow inference speed in waveform generation tasks. Above all, there is no generator architecture that can explicitly disentangle the natural periodic features of high-resolution waveform signals. In this paper, we propose PeriodWave, a novel universal waveform generation model. First, we introduce a period-aware flow matching estimator that can capture the periodic features of the waveform signal when estimating the vector fields. Additionally, we utilize a multi-period estimator that avoids overlaps to capture different periodic features of waveform signals. Although increasing the number of periods can improve the performance significantly, this requires more computational costs. To reduce this issue, we also propose a single period-conditional universal estimator that can feed-forward parallel by period-wise batch inference. Additionally, we utilize discrete wavelet transform to losslessly disentangle the frequency information of waveform signals for high-frequency modeling, and introduce FreeU to reduce the high-frequency noise for waveform generation. The experimental results demonstrated that our model outperforms the previous models both in Mel-spectrogram reconstruction and text-to-speech tasks. All source code will be available at https://github.com/sh-lee-prml/PeriodWave.

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture multi-scale periodic patterns, reduce sequence dependencies, and naturally denoise signals. However, existing approaches typically train model components for all frequencies under a unified training objective, often leading to mismatched learning speeds: high-frequency components converge faster and risk overfitting, while low-frequency components underfit due to insufficient training time. To deal with this challenge, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the training status for each frequency and adaptively adjusts their gradient updates. By recognizing convergence, overfitting, or underfitting for each frequency, BEAT dynamically reallocates learning priorities, moderating gradients for rapid learners and increasing those for slower ones, alleviating the tension between competing objectives across frequencies and synchronizing the overall learning process. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that BEAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Training deep neural networks (DNNs) using traditional backpropagation (BP) presents challenges in terms of computational complexity and energy consumption, particularly for on-device learning where computational resources are limited. Various alternatives to BP, including random feedback alignment, forward-forward, and local classifiers, have been explored to address these challenges. These methods have their advantages, but they can encounter difficulties when dealing with intricate visual tasks or demand considerable computational resources. In this paper, we propose a novel Local Learning rule inspired by neural activity Synchronization phenomena (LLS) observed in the brain. LLS utilizes fixed periodic basis vectors to synchronize neuron activity within each layer, enabling efficient training without the need for additional trainable parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LLS and its variations, LLS-M and LLS-MxM, on multiple image classification datasets, achieving accuracy comparable to BP with reduced computational complexity and minimal additional parameters. Furthermore, the performance of LLS on the Visual Wake Word (VWW) dataset highlights its suitability for on-device learning tasks, making it a promising candidate for edge hardware implementations.

In this paper, we propose a method to partially mimic natural intelligence for the problem of lifelong learning representations that are compatible. We take the perspective of a learning agent that is interested in recognizing object instances in an open dynamic universe in a way in which any update to its internal feature representation does not render the features in the gallery unusable for visual search. We refer to this learning problem as Compatible Lifelong Learning Representations (CL2R) as it considers compatible representation learning within the lifelong learning paradigm. We identify stationarity as the property that the feature representation is required to hold to achieve compatibility and propose a novel training procedure that encourages local and global stationarity on the learned representation. Due to stationarity, the statistical properties of the learned features do not change over time, making them interoperable with previously learned features. Extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets show that our CL2R training procedure outperforms alternative baselines and state-of-the-art methods. We also provide novel metrics to specifically evaluate compatible representation learning under catastrophic forgetting in various sequential learning tasks. Code at https://github.com/NiccoBiondi/CompatibleLifelongRepresentation.

Replay methods have shown to be successful in mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning scenarios despite having limited access to historical data. However, storing historical data is cheap in many real-world applications, yet replaying all historical data would be prohibited due to processing time constraints. In such settings, we propose learning the time to learn for a continual learning system, in which we learn replay schedules over which tasks to replay at different time steps. To demonstrate the importance of learning the time to learn, we first use Monte Carlo tree search to find the proper replay schedule and show that it can outperform fixed scheduling policies in terms of continual learning performance. Moreover, to improve the scheduling efficiency itself, we propose to use reinforcement learning to learn the replay scheduling policies that can generalize to new continual learning scenarios without added computational cost. In our experiments, we show the advantages of learning the time to learn, which brings current continual learning research closer to real-world needs.

Countless learning tasks require dealing with sequential data. Image captioning, speech synthesis, and music generation all require that a model produce outputs that are sequences. In other domains, such as time series prediction, video analysis, and musical information retrieval, a model must learn from inputs that are sequences. Interactive tasks, such as translating natural language, engaging in dialogue, and controlling a robot, often demand both capabilities. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are connectionist models that capture the dynamics of sequences via cycles in the network of nodes. Unlike standard feedforward neural networks, recurrent networks retain a state that can represent information from an arbitrarily long context window. Although recurrent neural networks have traditionally been difficult to train, and often contain millions of parameters, recent advances in network architectures, optimization techniques, and parallel computation have enabled successful large-scale learning with them. In recent years, systems based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional (BRNN) architectures have demonstrated ground-breaking performance on tasks as varied as image captioning, language translation, and handwriting recognition. In this survey, we review and synthesize the research that over the past three decades first yielded and then made practical these powerful learning models. When appropriate, we reconcile conflicting notation and nomenclature. Our goal is to provide a self-contained explication of the state of the art together with a historical perspective and references to primary research.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

We build upon time-series classification by leveraging the capabilities of Vision Language Models (VLMs). We find that VLMs produce competitive results after two or less epochs of fine-tuning. We develop a novel approach that incorporates graphical data representations as images in conjunction with numerical data. This approach is rooted in the hypothesis that graphical representations can provide additional contextual information that numerical data alone may not capture. Additionally, providing a graphical representation can circumvent issues such as limited context length faced by LLMs. To further advance this work, we implemented a scalable end-to-end pipeline for training on different scenarios, allowing us to isolate the most effective strategies for transferring learning capabilities from LLMs to Time Series Classification (TSC) tasks. Our approach works with univariate and multivariate time-series data. In addition, we conduct extensive and practical experiments to show how this approach works for time-series classification and generative labels.

Modular approaches, which use a different composition of modules for each problem and avoid forgetting by design, have been shown to be a promising direction in continual learning (CL). However, searching through the large, discrete space of possible module compositions is a challenge because evaluating a composition's performance requires a round of neural network training. To address this challenge, we develop a modular CL framework, called PICLE, that accelerates search by using a probabilistic model to cheaply compute the fitness of each composition. The model combines prior knowledge about good module compositions with dataset-specific information. Its use is complemented by splitting up the search space into subsets, such as perceptual and latent subsets. We show that PICLE is the first modular CL algorithm to achieve different types of transfer while scaling to large search spaces. We evaluate it on two benchmark suites designed to capture different desiderata of CL techniques. On these benchmarks, PICLE offers significantly better performance than state-of-the-art CL baselines.

We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for automatic time series analysis and reporting, which is a critical task across many domains, spanning healthcare, finance, climate, energy, and many more. In this paper, we propose a framework for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of LLMs on time series understanding, encompassing both univariate and multivariate forms. We introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of time series features, a critical framework that delineates various characteristics inherent in time series data. Leveraging this taxonomy, we have systematically designed and synthesized a diverse dataset of time series, embodying the different outlined features. This dataset acts as a solid foundation for assessing the proficiency of LLMs in comprehending time series. Our experiments shed light on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art LLMs in time series understanding, revealing which features these models readily comprehend effectively and where they falter. In addition, we uncover the sensitivity of LLMs to factors including the formatting of the data, the position of points queried within a series and the overall time series length.

This paper introduces the idea of applying signal processing inside a Large Language Model (LLM). With the recent explosion of generative AI, our work can help bridge two fields together, namely the field of signal processing and large language models. We draw parallels between classical Fourier-Transforms and Fourier Transform-like learnable time-frequency representations for every intermediate activation signal of an LLM. Once we decompose every activation signal across tokens into a time-frequency representation, we learn how to filter and reconstruct them, with all components learned from scratch, to predict the next token given the previous context. We show that for GPT-like architectures, our work achieves faster convergence and significantly increases performance by adding a minuscule number of extra parameters when trained for the same epochs. We hope this work paves the way for algorithms exploring signal processing inside the signals found in neural architectures like LLMs and beyond.

Conventional Time Series Classification (TSC) methods are often black boxes that obscure inherent interpretation of their decision-making processes. In this work, we leverage Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) to overcome this issue, and propose a new framework called MILLET: Multiple Instance Learning for Locally Explainable Time series classification. We apply MILLET to existing deep learning TSC models and show how they become inherently interpretable without compromising (and in some cases, even improving) predictive performance. We evaluate MILLET on 85 UCR TSC datasets and also present a novel synthetic dataset that is specially designed to facilitate interpretability evaluation. On these datasets, we show MILLET produces sparse explanations quickly that are of higher quality than other well-known interpretability methods. To the best of our knowledge, our work with MILLET, which is available on GitHub (https://github.com/JAEarly/MILTimeSeriesClassification), is the first to develop general MIL methods for TSC and apply them to an extensive variety of domains

The goal of continual learning is to find a model that solves multiple learning tasks which are presented sequentially to the learner. A key challenge in this setting is that the learner may forget how to solve a previous task when learning a new task, a phenomenon known as catastrophic forgetting. To address this challenge, many practical methods have been proposed, including memory-based, regularization-based, and expansion-based methods. However, a rigorous theoretical understanding of these methods remains elusive. This paper aims to bridge this gap between theory and practice by proposing a new continual learning framework called Ideal Continual Learner (ICL), which is guaranteed to avoid catastrophic forgetting by construction. We show that ICL unifies multiple well-established continual learning methods and gives new theoretical insights into the strengths and weaknesses of these methods. We also derive generalization bounds for ICL which allow us to theoretically quantify how rehearsal affects generalization. Finally, we connect ICL to several classic subjects and research topics of modern interest, which allows us to make historical remarks and inspire future directions.

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

We present time vectors, a simple tool to customize language models to new time periods. Time vectors are created by finetuning a language model on data from a single time (e.g., a year or month), and then subtracting the weights of the original pretrained model. This vector specifies a direction in weight space that, as our experiments show, improves performance on text from that time period. Time vectors specialized to adjacent time periods appear to be positioned closer together in a manifold. Using this structure, we interpolate between time vectors to induce new models that perform better on intervening and future time periods, without any additional training. We demonstrate the consistency of our findings across different tasks, domains, model sizes, and time scales. Our results suggest that time is encoded in the weight space of finetuned models.

Health conditions among patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are monitored via electronic health records (EHRs), composed of numerical time series and lengthy clinical note sequences, both taken at irregular time intervals. Dealing with such irregularity in every modality, and integrating irregularity into multimodal representations to improve medical predictions, is a challenging problem. Our method first addresses irregularity in each single modality by (1) modeling irregular time series by dynamically incorporating hand-crafted imputation embeddings into learned interpolation embeddings via a gating mechanism, and (2) casting a series of clinical note representations as multivariate irregular time series and tackling irregularity via a time attention mechanism. We further integrate irregularity in multimodal fusion with an interleaved attention mechanism across temporal steps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to thoroughly model irregularity in multimodalities for improving medical predictions. Our proposed methods for two medical prediction tasks consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines in each single modality and multimodal fusion scenarios. Specifically, we observe relative improvements of 6.5\%, 3.6\%, and 4.3\% in F1 for time series, clinical notes, and multimodal fusion, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods and the importance of considering irregularity in multimodal EHRs.

Understanding the internal representations learned by neural networks is a cornerstone challenge in the science of machine learning. While there have been significant recent strides in some cases towards understanding how neural networks implement specific target functions, this paper explores a complementary question -- why do networks arrive at particular computational strategies? Our inquiry focuses on the algebraic learning tasks of modular addition, sparse parities, and finite group operations. Our primary theoretical findings analytically characterize the features learned by stylized neural networks for these algebraic tasks. Notably, our main technique demonstrates how the principle of margin maximization alone can be used to fully specify the features learned by the network. Specifically, we prove that the trained networks utilize Fourier features to perform modular addition and employ features corresponding to irreducible group-theoretic representations to perform compositions in general groups, aligning closely with the empirical observations of Nanda et al. and Chughtai et al. More generally, we hope our techniques can help to foster a deeper understanding of why neural networks adopt specific computational strategies.

Linear Recurrence has proven to be a powerful tool for modeling long sequences efficiently. In this work, we show that existing models fail to take full advantage of its potential. Motivated by this finding, we develop GateLoop, a foundational sequence model that generalizes linear recurrent models such as S4, S5, LRU and RetNet, by employing data-controlled state transitions. Utilizing this theoretical advance, GateLoop empirically outperforms existing models for auto-regressive language modeling. Our method comes with a low-cost O(l) recurrent mode and an efficient O(l log_{2} l) parallel mode making use of highly optimized associative scan implementations. Furthermore, we derive an O(l^2) surrogate attention mode, revealing remarkable implications for Transformer and recently proposed architectures. Specifically, we prove that our approach can be interpreted as providing data-controlled relative-positional information to Attention. While many existing models solely rely on data-controlled cumulative sums for context aggregation, our findings suggest that incorporating data-controlled complex cumulative products may be a crucial step towards more powerful sequence models.

Learning rate schedules used in practice bear little resemblance to those recommended by theory. We close much of this theory/practice gap, and as a consequence are able to derive new problem-adaptive learning rate schedules. Our key technical contribution is a refined analysis of learning rate schedules for a wide class of optimization algorithms (including SGD). In contrast to most prior works that study the convergence of the average iterate, we study the last iterate, which is what most people use in practice. When considering only worst-case analysis, our theory predicts that the best choice is the linear decay schedule: a popular choice in practice that sets the stepsize proportionally to 1 - t/T, where t is the current iteration and T is the total number of steps. To go beyond this worst-case analysis, we use the observed gradient norms to derive schedules refined for any particular task. These refined schedules exhibit learning rate warm-up and rapid learning rate annealing near the end of training. Ours is the first systematic approach to automatically yield both of these properties. We perform the most comprehensive evaluation of learning rate schedules to date, evaluating across 10 diverse deep learning problems, a series of LLMs, and a suite of logistic regression problems. We validate that overall, the linear-decay schedule matches or outperforms all commonly used default schedules including cosine annealing, and that our schedule refinement method gives further improvements.

Despite their widespread use, the mechanisms by which large language models (LLMs) represent and regulate uncertainty in next-token predictions remain largely unexplored. This study investigates two critical components believed to influence this uncertainty: the recently discovered entropy neurons and a new set of components that we term token frequency neurons. Entropy neurons are characterized by an unusually high weight norm and influence the final layer normalization (LayerNorm) scale to effectively scale down the logits. Our work shows that entropy neurons operate by writing onto an unembedding null space, allowing them to impact the residual stream norm with minimal direct effect on the logits themselves. We observe the presence of entropy neurons across a range of models, up to 7 billion parameters. On the other hand, token frequency neurons, which we discover and describe here for the first time, boost or suppress each token's logit proportionally to its log frequency, thereby shifting the output distribution towards or away from the unigram distribution. Finally, we present a detailed case study where entropy neurons actively manage confidence in the setting of induction, i.e. detecting and continuing repeated subsequences.

The ever-growing availability of unlabeled data presents both opportunities and challenges for training artificial intelligence systems. While self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for extracting meaningful representations from vast amounts of unlabeled data, existing methods still struggle to adapt to the non-stationary, non-IID nature of real-world data streams without forgetting previously learned knowledge. Recent works have adopted a repeated cosine annealing schedule for large-scale continual pre-training; however, these schedules (1) inherently cause forgetting during the re-warming phase and (2) have not been systematically compared to existing continual SSL methods. In this work, we systematically compare the widely used cosine schedule with the recently proposed infinite learning rate schedule and empirically find the latter to be a more effective alternative. Our extensive empirical evaluation across diverse image and language datasets demonstrates that the infinite learning rate schedule consistently enhances continual pre-training performance compared to a repeated cosine decay without being restricted to a fixed iteration budget. For instance, in a small-scale MAE pre-training setup, it outperforms several strong baselines from the literature. We then scale up our experiments to larger MAE pre-training and autoregressive language model pre-training. Our results show that the infinite learning rate schedule remains effective at scale, surpassing repeated cosine decay for both MAE pre-training and zero-shot LM benchmarks.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

It is known that the learning rate is the most important hyper-parameter to tune for training deep neural networks. This paper describes a new method for setting the learning rate, named cyclical learning rates, which practically eliminates the need to experimentally find the best values and schedule for the global learning rates. Instead of monotonically decreasing the learning rate, this method lets the learning rate cyclically vary between reasonable boundary values. Training with cyclical learning rates instead of fixed values achieves improved classification accuracy without a need to tune and often in fewer iterations. This paper also describes a simple way to estimate "reasonable bounds" -- linearly increasing the learning rate of the network for a few epochs. In addition, cyclical learning rates are demonstrated on the CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets with ResNets, Stochastic Depth networks, and DenseNets, and the ImageNet dataset with the AlexNet and GoogLeNet architectures. These are practical tools for everyone who trains neural networks.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

Playlists have become a significant part of our listening experience because of the digital cloud-based services such as Spotify, Pandora, Apple Music. Owing to the meteoric rise in the usage of playlists, recommending playlists is crucial to music services today. Although there has been a lot of work done in playlist prediction, the area of playlist representation hasn't received that level of attention. Over the last few years, sequence-to-sequence models, especially in the field of natural language processing, have shown the effectiveness of learned embeddings in capturing the semantic characteristics of sequences. We can apply similar concepts to music to learn fixed length representations for playlists and use those representations for downstream tasks such as playlist discovery, browsing, and recommendation. In this work, we formulate the problem of learning a fixed-length playlist representation in an unsupervised manner, using Sequence-to-sequence (Seq2seq) models, interpreting playlists as sentences and songs as words. We compare our model with two other encoding architectures for baseline comparison. We evaluate our work using the suite of tasks commonly used for assessing sentence embeddings, along with a few additional tasks pertaining to music, and a recommendation task to study the traits captured by the playlist embeddings and their effectiveness for the purpose of music recommendation.

An obstacle to artificial general intelligence is set by continual learning of multiple tasks of different nature. Recently, various heuristic tricks, both from machine learning and from neuroscience angles, were proposed, but they lack a unified theory ground. Here, we focus on continual learning in single-layered and multi-layered neural networks of binary weights. A variational Bayesian learning setting is thus proposed, where the neural networks are trained in a field-space, rather than gradient-ill-defined discrete-weight space, and furthermore, weight uncertainty is naturally incorporated, and modulates synaptic resources among tasks. From a physics perspective, we translate the variational continual learning into Franz-Parisi thermodynamic potential framework, where previous task knowledge acts as a prior and a reference as well. We thus interpret the continual learning of the binary perceptron in a teacher-student setting as a Franz-Parisi potential computation. The learning performance can then be analytically studied with mean-field order parameters, whose predictions coincide with numerical experiments using stochastic gradient descent methods. Based on the variational principle and Gaussian field approximation of internal preactivations in hidden layers, we also derive the learning algorithm considering weight uncertainty, which solves the continual learning with binary weights using multi-layered neural networks, and performs better than the currently available metaplasticity algorithm. Our proposed principled frameworks also connect to elastic weight consolidation, weight-uncertainty modulated learning, and neuroscience inspired metaplasticity, providing a theory-grounded method for the real-world multi-task learning with deep networks.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Continual learning (CL) enables models to adapt to new tasks and environments without forgetting previously learned knowledge. While current CL setups have ignored the relationship between labels in the past task and the new task with or without small task overlaps, real-world scenarios often involve hierarchical relationships between old and new tasks, posing another challenge for traditional CL approaches. To address this challenge, we propose a novel multi-level hierarchical class incremental task configuration with an online learning constraint, called hierarchical label expansion (HLE). Our configuration allows a network to first learn coarse-grained classes, with data labels continually expanding to more fine-grained classes in various hierarchy depths. To tackle this new setup, we propose a rehearsal-based method that utilizes hierarchy-aware pseudo-labeling to incorporate hierarchical class information. Additionally, we propose a simple yet effective memory management and sampling strategy that selectively adopts samples of newly encountered classes. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed method can effectively use hierarchy on our HLE setup to improve classification accuracy across all levels of hierarchies, regardless of depth and class imbalance ratio, outperforming prior state-of-the-art works by significant margins while also outperforming them on the conventional disjoint, blurry and i-Blurry CL setups.

Recent research has revealed that neural language models at scale suffer from poor temporal generalization capability, i.e., the language model pre-trained on static data from past years performs worse over time on emerging data. Existing methods mainly perform continual training to mitigate such a misalignment. While effective to some extent but is far from being addressed on both the language modeling and downstream tasks. In this paper, we empirically observe that temporal generalization is closely affiliated with lexical semantic change, which is one of the essential phenomena of natural languages. Based on this observation, we propose a simple yet effective lexical-level masking strategy to post-train a converged language model. Experiments on two pre-trained language models, two different classification tasks, and four benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method over existing temporal adaptation methods, i.e., continual training with new data. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhaochen0110/LMLM.

We consider the problem of few-shot spoken word classification in a setting where a model is incrementally introduced to new word classes. This would occur in a user-defined keyword system where new words can be added as the system is used. In such a continual learning scenario, a model might start to misclassify earlier words as newer classes are added, i.e. catastrophic forgetting. To address this, we propose an extension to model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML): each inner learning loop, where a model "learns how to learn'' new classes, ends with a single gradient update using stored templates from all the classes that the model has already seen (one template per class). We compare this method to OML (another extension of MAML) in few-shot isolated-word classification experiments on Google Commands and FACC. Our method consistently outperforms OML in experiments where the number of shots and the final number of classes are varied.

The Linear Representation Hypothesis (LRH) states that neural networks learn to encode concepts as directions in activation space, and a strong version of the LRH states that models learn only such encodings. In this paper, we present a counterexample to this strong LRH: when trained to repeat an input token sequence, gated recurrent neural networks (RNNs) learn to represent the token at each position with a particular order of magnitude, rather than a direction. These representations have layered features that are impossible to locate in distinct linear subspaces. To show this, we train interventions to predict and manipulate tokens by learning the scaling factor corresponding to each sequence position. These interventions indicate that the smallest RNNs find only this magnitude-based solution, while larger RNNs have linear representations. These findings strongly indicate that interpretability research should not be confined by the LRH.

Not all positive pairs are beneficial to time series contrastive learning. In this paper, we study two types of bad positive pairs that can impair the quality of time series representation learned through contrastive learning: the noisy positive pair and the faulty positive pair. We observe that, with the presence of noisy positive pairs, the model tends to simply learn the pattern of noise (Noisy Alignment). Meanwhile, when faulty positive pairs arise, the model wastes considerable amount of effort aligning non-representative patterns (Faulty Alignment). To address this problem, we propose a Dynamic Bad Pair Mining (DBPM) algorithm, which reliably identifies and suppresses bad positive pairs in time series contrastive learning. Specifically, DBPM utilizes a memory module to dynamically track the training behavior of each positive pair along training process. This allows us to identify potential bad positive pairs at each epoch based on their historical training behaviors. The identified bad pairs are subsequently down-weighted through a transformation module, thereby mitigating their negative impact on the representation learning process. DBPM is a simple algorithm designed as a lightweight plug-in without learnable parameters to enhance the performance of existing state-of-the-art methods. Through extensive experiments conducted on four large-scale, real-world time series datasets, we demonstrate DBPM's efficacy in mitigating the adverse effects of bad positive pairs.

In-context learning is one of the surprising and useful features of large language models. How it works is an active area of research. Recently, stylized meta-learning-like setups have been devised that train these models on a sequence of input-output pairs (x, f(x)) from a function class using the language modeling loss and observe generalization to unseen functions from the same class. One of the main discoveries in this line of research has been that for several problems such as linear regression, trained transformers learn algorithms for learning functions in context. However, the inductive biases of these models resulting in this behavior are not clearly understood. A model with unlimited training data and compute is a Bayesian predictor: it learns the pretraining distribution. It has been shown that high-capacity transformers mimic the Bayesian predictor for linear regression. In this paper, we show empirical evidence of transformers exhibiting the behavior of this ideal learner across different linear and non-linear function classes. We also extend the previous setups to work in the multitask setting and verify that transformers can do in-context learning in this setup as well and the Bayesian perspective sheds light on this setting also. Finally, via the example of learning Fourier series, we study the inductive bias for in-context learning. We find that in-context learning may or may not have simplicity bias depending on the pretraining data distribution.

In this note (work in progress towards a full-length paper) we show that a family of sequence models based on recurrent linear layers~(including S4, S5, and the LRU) interleaved with position-wise multi-layer perceptrons~(MLPs) can approximate arbitrarily well any sufficiently regular non-linear sequence-to-sequence map. The main idea behind our result is to see recurrent layers as compression algorithms that can faithfully store information about the input sequence into an inner state, before it is processed by the highly expressive MLP.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

Modern techniques like contrastive learning have been effectively used in many areas, including computer vision, natural language processing, and graph-structured data. Creating positive examples that assist the model in learning robust and discriminative representations is a crucial stage in contrastive learning approaches. Usually, preset human intuition directs the selection of relevant data augmentations. Due to patterns that are easily recognized by humans, this rule of thumb works well in the vision and language domains. However, it is impractical to visually inspect the temporal structures in time series. The diversity of time series augmentations at both the dataset and instance levels makes it difficult to choose meaningful augmentations on the fly. In this study, we address this gap by analyzing time series data augmentation using information theory and summarizing the most commonly adopted augmentations in a unified format. We then propose a contrastive learning framework with parametric augmentation, AutoTCL, which can be adaptively employed to support time series representation learning. The proposed approach is encoder-agnostic, allowing it to be seamlessly integrated with different backbone encoders. Experiments on univariate forecasting tasks demonstrate the highly competitive results of our method, with an average 6.5\% reduction in MSE and 4.7\% in MAE over the leading baselines. In classification tasks, AutoTCL achieves a 1.2% increase in average accuracy.

Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have enabled numerous advances in understanding and reasoning in domains like vision, but we have not yet seen this broad success for time-series. Although prior works on time-series MLLMs have shown promising performance in time-series forecasting, very few works show how an LLM could be used for time-series reasoning in natural language. We propose a novel multi-modal time-series LLM approach that learns generalizable information across various domains with powerful zero-shot performance. First, we train a lightweight time-series encoder on top of an LLM to directly extract time-series information. Then, we fine-tune our model with chain-of-thought augmented time-series tasks to encourage the model to generate reasoning paths. We show that our model learns a latent representation that reflects specific time-series features (e.g. slope, frequency), as well as outperforming GPT-4o on a set of zero-shot reasoning tasks on a variety of domains.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Artificial neural networks (ANN) are inspired by human learning. However, unlike human education, classical ANN does not use a curriculum. Curriculum Learning (CL) refers to the process of ANN training in which examples are used in a meaningful order. When using CL, training begins with a subset of the dataset and new samples are added throughout the training, or training begins with the entire dataset and the number of samples used is reduced. With these changes in training dataset size, better results can be obtained with curriculum, anti-curriculum, or random-curriculum methods than the vanilla method. However, a generally efficient CL method for various architectures and data sets is not found. In this paper, we propose cyclical curriculum learning (CCL), in which the data size used during training changes cyclically rather than simply increasing or decreasing. Instead of using only the vanilla method or only the curriculum method, using both methods cyclically like in CCL provides more successful results. We tested the method on 18 different data sets and 15 architectures in image and text classification tasks and obtained more successful results than no-CL and existing CL methods. We also have shown theoretically that it is less erroneous to apply CL and vanilla cyclically instead of using only CL or only vanilla method. The code of Cyclical Curriculum is available at https://github.com/CyclicalCurriculum/Cyclical-Curriculum.

Distribution shift (e.g., task or domain shift) in continual learning (CL) usually results in catastrophic forgetting of neural networks. Although it can be alleviated by repeatedly replaying buffered data, the every-step replay is time-consuming. In this paper, we study which modules in neural networks are more prone to forgetting by investigating their training dynamics during CL. Our proposed metrics show that only a few modules are more task-specific and sensitively alter between tasks, while others can be shared across tasks as common knowledge. Hence, we attribute forgetting mainly to the former and find that finetuning them only on a small buffer at the end of any CL method can bring non-trivial improvement. Due to the small number of finetuned parameters, such ``Forgetting Prioritized Finetuning (FPF)'' is efficient in computation. We further propose a more efficient and simpler method that entirely removes the every-step replay and replaces them by only k-times of FPF periodically triggered during CL. Surprisingly, this ``k-FPF'' performs comparably to FPF and outperforms the SOTA CL methods but significantly reduces their computational overhead and cost. In experiments on several benchmarks of class- and domain-incremental CL, FPF consistently improves existing CL methods by a large margin, and k-FPF further excels in efficiency without degrading the accuracy. We also empirically studied the impact of buffer size, epochs per task, and finetuning modules on the cost and accuracy of our methods.

Training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is a high-dimensional process that requires updating numerous parameters. Therefore, it is often difficult to pinpoint the underlying learning mechanisms. To address this challenge, we propose to gain mechanistic insights into the phenomenon of abrupt learning by studying RNNs trained to perform diverse short-term memory tasks. In these tasks, RNN training begins with an initial search phase. Following a long period of plateau in accuracy, the values of the loss function suddenly drop, indicating abrupt learning. Analyzing the neural computation performed by these RNNs reveals geometric restructuring (GR) in their phase spaces prior to the drop. To promote these GR events, we introduce a temporal consistency regularization that accelerates (bioplausible) training, facilitates attractor formation, and enables efficient learning in strongly connected networks. Our findings offer testable predictions for neuroscientists and emphasize the need for goal-agnostic secondary mechanisms to facilitate learning in biological and artificial networks.

A central problem in learning from sequential data is representing cumulative history in an incremental fashion as more data is processed. We introduce a general framework (HiPPO) for the online compression of continuous signals and discrete time series by projection onto polynomial bases. Given a measure that specifies the importance of each time step in the past, HiPPO produces an optimal solution to a natural online function approximation problem. As special cases, our framework yields a short derivation of the recent Legendre Memory Unit (LMU) from first principles, and generalizes the ubiquitous gating mechanism of recurrent neural networks such as GRUs. This formal framework yields a new memory update mechanism (HiPPO-LegS) that scales through time to remember all history, avoiding priors on the timescale. HiPPO-LegS enjoys the theoretical benefits of timescale robustness, fast updates, and bounded gradients. By incorporating the memory dynamics into recurrent neural networks, HiPPO RNNs can empirically capture complex temporal dependencies. On the benchmark permuted MNIST dataset, HiPPO-LegS sets a new state-of-the-art accuracy of 98.3%. Finally, on a novel trajectory classification task testing robustness to out-of-distribution timescales and missing data, HiPPO-LegS outperforms RNN and neural ODE baselines by 25-40% accuracy.

In this paper, we work on a sound recognition system that continually incorporates new sound classes. Our main goal is to develop a framework where the model can be updated without relying on labeled data. For this purpose, we propose adopting representation learning, where an encoder is trained using unlabeled data. This learning framework enables the study and implementation of a practically relevant use case where only a small amount of the labels is available in a continual learning context. We also make the empirical observation that a similarity-based representation learning method within this framework is robust to forgetting even if no explicit mechanism against forgetting is employed. We show that this approach obtains similar performance compared to several distillation-based continual learning methods when employed on self-supervised representation learning methods.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), temporal convolutions, and neural differential equations (NDEs) are popular families of deep learning models for time-series data, each with unique strengths and tradeoffs in modeling power and computational efficiency. We introduce a simple sequence model inspired by control systems that generalizes these approaches while addressing their shortcomings. The Linear State-Space Layer (LSSL) maps a sequence u mapsto y by simply simulating a linear continuous-time state-space representation x = Ax + Bu, y = Cx + Du. Theoretically, we show that LSSL models are closely related to the three aforementioned families of models and inherit their strengths. For example, they generalize convolutions to continuous-time, explain common RNN heuristics, and share features of NDEs such as time-scale adaptation. We then incorporate and generalize recent theory on continuous-time memorization to introduce a trainable subset of structured matrices A that endow LSSLs with long-range memory. Empirically, stacking LSSL layers into a simple deep neural network obtains state-of-the-art results across time series benchmarks for long dependencies in sequential image classification, real-world healthcare regression tasks, and speech. On a difficult speech classification task with length-16000 sequences, LSSL outperforms prior approaches by 24 accuracy points, and even outperforms baselines that use hand-crafted features on 100x shorter sequences.

Nowadays, real-world applications often face streaming data, which requires the learning system to absorb new knowledge as data evolves. Continual Learning (CL) aims to achieve this goal and meanwhile overcome the catastrophic forgetting of former knowledge when learning new ones. Typical CL methods build the model from scratch to grow with incoming data. However, the advent of the pre-trained model (PTM) era has sparked immense research interest, particularly in leveraging PTMs' robust representational capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the latest advancements in PTM-based CL. We categorize existing methodologies into three distinct groups, providing a comparative analysis of their similarities, differences, and respective advantages and disadvantages. Additionally, we offer an empirical study contrasting various state-of-the-art methods to highlight concerns regarding fairness in comparisons. The source code to reproduce these evaluations is available at: https://github.com/sun-hailong/LAMDA-PILOT

In this paper, we consider a real-world scenario where a model that is trained on pre-defined classes continually encounters unlabeled data that contains both known and novel classes. The goal is to continually discover novel classes while maintaining the performance in known classes. We name the setting Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD). Existing methods for novel class discovery cannot directly handle the C-GCD setting due to some unrealistic assumptions, such as the unlabeled data only containing novel classes. Furthermore, they fail to discover novel classes in a continual fashion. In this work, we lift all these assumptions and propose an approach, called MetaGCD, to learn how to incrementally discover with less forgetting. Our proposed method uses a meta-learning framework and leverages the offline labeled data to simulate the testing incremental learning process. A meta-objective is defined to revolve around two conflicting learning objectives to achieve novel class discovery without forgetting. Furthermore, a soft neighborhood-based contrastive network is proposed to discriminate uncorrelated images while attracting correlated images. We build strong baselines and conduct extensive experiments on three widely used benchmarks to demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Modern representation learning methods often struggle to adapt quickly under non-stationarity because they suffer from catastrophic forgetting and decaying plasticity. Such problems prevent learners from fast adaptation since they may forget useful features or have difficulty learning new ones. Hence, these methods are rendered ineffective for continual learning. This paper proposes Utility-based Perturbed Gradient Descent (UPGD), an online learning algorithm well-suited for continual learning agents. UPGD protects useful weights or features from forgetting and perturbs less useful ones based on their utilities. Our empirical results show that UPGD helps reduce forgetting and maintain plasticity, enabling modern representation learning methods to work effectively in continual learning.

Natural Language Inference (NLI) tasks involving temporal inference remain challenging for pre-trained language models (LMs). Although various datasets have been created for this task, they primarily focus on English and do not address the need for resources in other languages. It is unclear whether current LMs realize the generalization capacity for temporal inference across languages. In this paper, we present Jamp, a Japanese NLI benchmark focused on temporal inference. Our dataset includes a range of temporal inference patterns, which enables us to conduct fine-grained analysis. To begin the data annotation process, we create diverse inference templates based on the formal semantics test suites. We then automatically generate diverse NLI examples by using the Japanese case frame dictionary and well-designed templates while controlling the distribution of inference patterns and gold labels. We evaluate the generalization capacities of monolingual/multilingual LMs by splitting our dataset based on tense fragments (i.e., temporal inference patterns). Our findings demonstrate that LMs struggle with specific linguistic phenomena, such as habituality, indicating that there is potential for the development of more effective NLI models across languages.

Invariance learning methods aim to learn invariant features in the hope that they generalize under distributional shifts. Although many tasks are naturally characterized by continuous domains, current invariance learning techniques generally assume categorically indexed domains. For example, auto-scaling in cloud computing often needs a CPU utilization prediction model that generalizes across different times (e.g., time of a day and date of a year), where `time' is a continuous domain index. In this paper, we start by theoretically showing that existing invariance learning methods can fail for continuous domain problems. Specifically, the naive solution of splitting continuous domains into discrete ones ignores the underlying relationship among domains, and therefore potentially leads to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we then propose Continuous Invariance Learning (CIL), which extracts invariant features across continuously indexed domains. CIL is a novel adversarial procedure that measures and controls the conditional independence between the labels and continuous domain indices given the extracted features. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the superiority of CIL over existing invariance learning methods. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets (including data collected from production systems) show that CIL consistently outperforms strong baselines among all the tasks.

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Contrastive learning has shown to be effective to learn representations from time series in a self-supervised way. However, contrasting similar time series instances or values from adjacent timestamps within a time series leads to ignore their inherent correlations, which results in deteriorating the quality of learned representations. To address this issue, we propose SoftCLT, a simple yet effective soft contrastive learning strategy for time series. This is achieved by introducing instance-wise and temporal contrastive loss with soft assignments ranging from zero to one. Specifically, we define soft assignments for 1) instance-wise contrastive loss by the distance between time series on the data space, and 2) temporal contrastive loss by the difference of timestamps. SoftCLT is a plug-and-play method for time series contrastive learning that improves the quality of learned representations without bells and whistles. In experiments, we demonstrate that SoftCLT consistently improves the performance in various downstream tasks including classification, semi-supervised learning, transfer learning, and anomaly detection, showing state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/softclt.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Large language models (LLMs) trained on huge corpora of text datasets demonstrate intriguing capabilities, achieving state-of-the-art performance on tasks they were not explicitly trained for. The precise nature of LLM capabilities is often mysterious, and different prompts can elicit different capabilities through in-context learning. We propose a framework that enables us to analyze in-context learning dynamics to understand latent concepts underlying LLMs' behavioral patterns. This provides a more nuanced understanding than success-or-failure evaluation benchmarks, but does not require observing internal activations as a mechanistic interpretation of circuits would. Inspired by the cognitive science of human randomness perception, we use random binary sequences as context and study dynamics of in-context learning by manipulating properties of context data, such as sequence length. In the latest GPT-3.5+ models, we find emergent abilities to generate seemingly random numbers and learn basic formal languages, with striking in-context learning dynamics where model outputs transition sharply from seemingly random behaviors to deterministic repetition.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

No free lunch theorems for supervised learning state that no learner can solve all problems or that all learners achieve exactly the same accuracy on average over a uniform distribution on learning problems. Accordingly, these theorems are often referenced in support of the notion that individual problems require specially tailored inductive biases. While virtually all uniformly sampled datasets have high complexity, real-world problems disproportionately generate low-complexity data, and we argue that neural network models share this same preference, formalized using Kolmogorov complexity. Notably, we show that architectures designed for a particular domain, such as computer vision, can compress datasets on a variety of seemingly unrelated domains. Our experiments show that pre-trained and even randomly initialized language models prefer to generate low-complexity sequences. Whereas no free lunch theorems seemingly indicate that individual problems require specialized learners, we explain how tasks that often require human intervention such as picking an appropriately sized model when labeled data is scarce or plentiful can be automated into a single learning algorithm. These observations justify the trend in deep learning of unifying seemingly disparate problems with an increasingly small set of machine learning models.

In real-world scenarios, extensive manual annotation for continual learning is impractical due to prohibitive costs. Although prior arts, influenced by large-scale webly supervised training, suggest leveraging web-scraped data in continual learning, this poses challenges such as data imbalance, usage restrictions, and privacy concerns. Addressing the risks of continual webly supervised training, we present an online continual learning framework - Generative Name only Continual Learning (G-NoCL). The proposed G-NoCL uses a set of generators G along with the learner. When encountering new concepts (i.e., classes), G-NoCL employs the novel sample complexity-guided data ensembling technique DIverSity and COmplexity enhancing ensemBlER (DISCOBER) to optimally sample training data from generated data. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate superior performance of DISCOBER in G-NoCL online CL benchmarks, covering both In-Distribution (ID) and Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization evaluations, compared to naive generator-ensembling, web-supervised, and manually annotated data.

Kernel continual learning by derakhshani2021kernel has recently emerged as a strong continual learner due to its non-parametric ability to tackle task interference and catastrophic forgetting. Unfortunately its success comes at the expense of an explicit memory to store samples from past tasks, which hampers scalability to continual learning settings with a large number of tasks. In this paper, we introduce generative kernel continual learning, which explores and exploits the synergies between generative models and kernels for continual learning. The generative model is able to produce representative samples for kernel learning, which removes the dependence on memory in kernel continual learning. Moreover, as we replay only on the generative model, we avoid task interference while being computationally more efficient compared to previous methods that need replay on the entire model. We further introduce a supervised contrastive regularization, which enables our model to generate even more discriminative samples for better kernel-based classification performance. We conduct extensive experiments on three widely-used continual learning benchmarks that demonstrate the abilities and benefits of our contributions. Most notably, on the challenging SplitCIFAR100 benchmark, with just a simple linear kernel we obtain the same accuracy as kernel continual learning with variational random features for one tenth of the memory, or a 10.1\% accuracy gain for the same memory budget.

Real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) for sequence-processing recurrent neural networks (RNNs) offers certain conceptual advantages over backpropagation through time (BPTT). RTRL requires neither caching past activations nor truncating context, and enables online learning. However, RTRL's time and space complexity make it impractical. To overcome this problem, most recent work on RTRL focuses on approximation theories, while experiments are often limited to diagnostic settings. Here we explore the practical promise of RTRL in more realistic settings. We study actor-critic methods that combine RTRL and policy gradients, and test them in several subsets of DMLab-30, ProcGen, and Atari-2600 environments. On DMLab memory tasks, our system trained on fewer than 1.2 B environmental frames is competitive with or outperforms well-known IMPALA and R2D2 baselines trained on 10 B frames. To scale to such challenging tasks, we focus on certain well-known neural architectures with element-wise recurrence, allowing for tractable RTRL without approximation. Importantly, we also discuss rarely addressed limitations of RTRL in real-world applications, such as its complexity in the multi-layer case.

Catastrophic forgetting has been a major challenge in continual learning, where the model needs to learn new tasks with limited or no access to data from previously seen tasks. To tackle this challenge, methods based on knowledge distillation in feature space have been proposed and shown to reduce forgetting. However, most feature distillation methods directly constrain the new features to match the old ones, overlooking the need for plasticity. To achieve a better stability-plasticity trade-off, we propose Backward Feature Projection (BFP), a method for continual learning that allows the new features to change up to a learnable linear transformation of the old features. BFP preserves the linear separability of the old classes while allowing the emergence of new feature directions to accommodate new classes. BFP can be integrated with existing experience replay methods and boost performance by a significant margin. We also demonstrate that BFP helps learn a better representation space, in which linear separability is well preserved during continual learning and linear probing achieves high classification accuracy. The code can be found at https://github.com/rvl-lab-utoronto/BFP

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Understanding time from visual representations is a fundamental cognitive skill, yet it remains a challenge for multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In this work, we investigate the capabilities of MLLMs in interpreting time and date through analogue clocks and yearly calendars. To facilitate this, we curated a structured dataset comprising two subsets: 1) ClockQA, which comprises various types of clock styles-standard, black-dial, no-second-hand, Roman numeral, and arrow-hand clocks-paired with time related questions; and 2) CalendarQA, which consists of yearly calendar images with questions ranging from commonly known dates (e.g., Christmas, New Year's Day) to computationally derived ones (e.g., the 100th or 153rd day of the year). We aim to analyse how MLLMs can perform visual recognition, numerical reasoning, and temporal inference when presented with time-related visual data. Our evaluations show that despite recent advancements, reliably understanding time remains a significant challenge for MLLMs.

Large-scale neural language models exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning (ICL): they can infer novel functions from datasets provided as input. Most of our current understanding of when and how ICL arises comes from LMs trained on extremely simple learning problems like linear regression and associative recall. There remains a significant gap between these model problems and the "real" ICL exhibited by LMs trained on large text corpora, which involves not just retrieval and function approximation but free-form generation of language and other structured outputs. In this paper, we study ICL through the lens of a new family of model problems we term in context language learning (ICLL). In ICLL, LMs are presented with a set of strings from a formal language, and must generate additional strings from the same language. We focus on in-context learning of regular languages generated by random finite automata. We evaluate a diverse set of neural sequence models (including several RNNs, Transformers, and state-space model variants) on regular ICLL tasks, aiming to answer three questions: (1) Which model classes are empirically capable of ICLL? (2) What algorithmic solutions do successful models implement to perform ICLL? (3) What architectural changes can improve ICLL in less performant models? We first show that Transformers significantly outperform neural sequence models with recurrent or convolutional representations on ICLL tasks. Next, we provide evidence that their ability to do so relies on specialized "n-gram heads" (higher-order variants of induction heads) that compute input-conditional next-token distributions. Finally, we show that hard-wiring these heads into neural models improves performance not just on ICLL, but natural language modeling -- improving the perplexity of 340M-parameter models by up to 1.14 points (6.7%) on the SlimPajama dataset.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

This paper introduces the counter-intuitive generalization results of overfitting pre-trained large language models (LLMs) on very small datasets. In the setting of open-ended text generation, it is well-documented that LLMs tend to generate repetitive and dull sequences, a phenomenon that is especially apparent when generating using greedy decoding. This issue persists even with state-of-the-art LLMs containing billions of parameters, trained via next-token prediction on large datasets. We find that by further fine-tuning these models to achieve a near-zero training loss on a small set of samples -- a process we refer to as hyperfitting -- the long-sequence generative capabilities are greatly enhanced. Greedy decoding with these Hyperfitted models even outperform Top-P sampling over long-sequences, both in terms of diversity and human preferences. This phenomenon extends to LLMs of various sizes, different domains, and even autoregressive image generation. We further find this phenomena to be distinctly different from that of Grokking and double descent. Surprisingly, our experiments indicate that hyperfitted models rarely fall into repeating sequences they were trained on, and even explicitly blocking these sequences results in high-quality output. All hyperfitted models produce extremely low-entropy predictions, often allocating nearly all probability to a single token.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have fast inference and scale efficiently on long sequences, but they are difficult to train and hard to scale. We propose Hawk, an RNN with gated linear recurrences, and Griffin, a hybrid model that mixes gated linear recurrences with local attention. Hawk exceeds the reported performance of Mamba on downstream tasks, while Griffin matches the performance of Llama-2 despite being trained on over 6 times fewer tokens. We also show that Griffin can extrapolate on sequences significantly longer than those seen during training. Our models match the hardware efficiency of Transformers during training, and during inference they have lower latency and significantly higher throughput. We scale Griffin up to 14B parameters, and explain how to shard our models for efficient distributed training.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

The recent success of large language models (LLMs) trained on static, pre-collected, general datasets has sparked numerous research directions and applications. One such direction addresses the non-trivial challenge of integrating pre-trained LLMs into dynamic data distributions, task structures, and user preferences. Pre-trained LLMs, when tailored for specific needs, often experience significant performance degradation in previous knowledge domains -- a phenomenon known as "catastrophic forgetting". While extensively studied in the continual learning (CL) community, it presents new manifestations in the realm of LLMs. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of the current research progress on LLMs within the context of CL. This survey is structured into four main sections: we first describe an overview of continually learning LLMs, consisting of two directions of continuity: vertical continuity (or vertical continual learning), i.e., continual adaptation from general to specific capabilities, and horizontal continuity (or horizontal continual learning), i.e., continual adaptation across time and domains (Section 3). We then summarize three stages of learning LLMs in the context of modern CL: Continual Pre-Training (CPT), Domain-Adaptive Pre-training (DAP), and Continual Fine-Tuning (CFT) (Section 4). Then we provide an overview of evaluation protocols for continual learning with LLMs, along with the current available data sources (Section 5). Finally, we discuss intriguing questions pertaining to continual learning for LLMs (Section 6). The full list of papers examined in this survey is available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/llm-continual-learning-survey.

Neural networks are very effective when trained on large datasets for a large number of iterations. However, when they are trained on non-stationary streams of data and in an online fashion, their performance is reduced (1) by the online setup, which limits the availability of data, (2) due to catastrophic forgetting because of the non-stationary nature of the data. Furthermore, several recent works (Caccia et al., 2022; Lange et al., 2023) arXiv:2205.13452 showed that replay methods used in continual learning suffer from the stability gap, encountered when evaluating the model continually (rather than only on task boundaries). In this article, we study the effect of model ensembling as a way to improve performance and stability in online continual learning. We notice that naively ensembling models coming from a variety of training tasks increases the performance in online continual learning considerably. Starting from this observation, and drawing inspirations from semi-supervised learning ensembling methods, we use a lightweight temporal ensemble that computes the exponential moving average of the weights (EMA) at test time, and show that it can drastically increase the performance and stability when used in combination with several methods from the literature.

Word frequency is a key variable in psycholinguistics, useful for modeling human familiarity with words even in the era of large language models (LLMs). Frequency in film subtitles has proved to be a particularly good approximation of everyday language exposure. For many languages, however, film subtitles are not easily available, or are overwhelmingly translated from English. We demonstrate that frequencies extracted from carefully processed YouTube subtitles provide an approximation comparable to, and often better than, the best currently available resources. Moreover, they are available for languages for which a high-quality subtitle or speech corpus does not exist. We use YouTube subtitles to construct frequency norms for five diverse languages, Chinese, English, Indonesian, Japanese, and Spanish, and evaluate their correlation with lexical decision time, word familiarity, and lexical complexity. In addition to being strongly correlated with two psycholinguistic variables, a simple linear regression on the new frequencies achieves a new high score on a lexical complexity prediction task in English and Japanese, surpassing both models trained on film subtitle frequencies and the LLM GPT-4. Our code, the frequency lists, fastText word embeddings, and statistical language models are freely available at https://github.com/naist-nlp/tubelex.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

This paper argues that continual learning methods can benefit by splitting the capacity of the learner across multiple models. We use statistical learning theory and experimental analysis to show how multiple tasks can interact with each other in a non-trivial fashion when a single model is trained on them. The generalization error on a particular task can improve when it is trained with synergistic tasks, but can also deteriorate when trained with competing tasks. This theory motivates our method named Model Zoo which, inspired from the boosting literature, grows an ensemble of small models, each of which is trained during one episode of continual learning. We demonstrate that Model Zoo obtains large gains in accuracy on a variety of continual learning benchmark problems. Code is available at https://github.com/grasp-lyrl/modelzoo_continual.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

Explaining predictions based on multivariate time series data carries the additional difficulty of handling not only multiple features, but also time dependencies. It matters not only what happened, but also when, and the same feature could have a very different impact on a prediction depending on this time information. Previous work has used perturbation-based saliency methods to tackle this issue, perturbing an input using a trainable mask to discover which features at which times are driving the predictions. However these methods introduce fixed perturbations, inspired from similar methods on static data, while there seems to be little motivation to do so on temporal data. In this work, we aim to explain predictions by learning not only masks, but also associated perturbations. We empirically show that learning these perturbations significantly improves the quality of these explanations on time series data.

Most of the dominant approaches to continual learning are based on either memory replay, parameter isolation, or regularization techniques that require task boundaries to calculate task statistics. We propose a static architecture-based method that doesn't use any of these. We show that we can improve the continual learning performance by replacing the final layer of our networks with our pairwise interaction layer. The pairwise interaction layer uses sparse representations from a Winner-take-all style activation function to find the relevant correlations in the hidden layer representations. The networks using this architecture show competitive performance in MNIST and FashionMNIST-based continual image classification experiments. We demonstrate this in an online streaming continual learning setup where the learning system cannot access task labels or boundaries.

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real-world applications, event data is typically received in a streaming manner, where the distribution of patterns may shift over time. Additionally, privacy and memory constraints are commonly observed in practical scenarios, further compounding the challenges. Therefore, the continuous monitoring of a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-explored problem. Our work paper addresses this challenge by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which makes the model capable of continuously learning a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting under realistic constraints. Correspondingly, we propose a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPPOur code is available at {\small \url{ https://github.com/yanyanSann/PromptTPP}}, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. The prompts, small learnable parameters, are stored in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP, ensuring that the model learns event streams sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We present a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across three real user behavior datasets.

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in https://github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

Frequency analysis is useful for understanding the mechanisms of representation learning in neural networks (NNs). Most research in this area focuses on the learning dynamics of NNs for regression tasks, while little for classification. This study empirically investigates the latter and expands the understanding of frequency shortcuts. First, we perform experiments on synthetic datasets, designed to have a bias in different frequency bands. Our results demonstrate that NNs tend to find simple solutions for classification, and what they learn first during training depends on the most distinctive frequency characteristics, which can be either low- or high-frequencies. Second, we confirm this phenomenon on natural images. We propose a metric to measure class-wise frequency characteristics and a method to identify frequency shortcuts. The results show that frequency shortcuts can be texture-based or shape-based, depending on what best simplifies the objective. Third, we validate the transferability of frequency shortcuts on out-of-distribution (OOD) test sets. Our results suggest that frequency shortcuts can be transferred across datasets and cannot be fully avoided by larger model capacity and data augmentation. We recommend that future research should focus on effective training schemes mitigating frequency shortcut learning.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

We study the performance of transformers as a function of the number of repetitions of training examples with algorithmically generated datasets. On three problems of mathematics: the greatest common divisor, modular multiplication, and matrix eigenvalues, we show that for a fixed number of training steps, models trained on smaller sets of repeated examples outperform models trained on larger sets of single-use examples. We also demonstrate that two-set training - repeated use of a small random subset of examples, along normal sampling on the rest of the training set - provides for faster learning and better performance. This highlights that the benefits of repetition can outweigh those of data diversity. These datasets and problems provide a controlled setting to shed light on the still poorly understood interplay between generalization and memorization in deep learning.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

Despite its importance, the time variable has been largely neglected in the NLP and language model literature. In this paper, we present TimeLMs, a set of language models specialized on diachronic Twitter data. We show that a continual learning strategy contributes to enhancing Twitter-based language models' capacity to deal with future and out-of-distribution tweets, while making them competitive with standardized and more monolithic benchmarks. We also perform a number of qualitative analyses showing how they cope with trends and peaks in activity involving specific named entities or concept drift.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the choice of aggregation function. While summing over a node's neighbours can approximate any permutation-invariant function over discrete inputs, Cohen-Karlik et al. [2020] proved there are set-aggregation problems for which summing cannot generalise to unbounded inputs, proposing recurrent neural networks regularised towards permutation-invariance as a more expressive aggregator. We show that these results carry over to the graph domain: GNNs equipped with recurrent aggregators are competitive with state-of-the-art permutation-invariant aggregators, on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world problems. However, despite the benefits of recurrent aggregators, their O(V) depth makes them both difficult to parallelise and harder to train on large graphs. Inspired by the observation that a well-behaved aggregator for a GNN is a commutative monoid over its latent space, we propose a framework for constructing learnable, commutative, associative binary operators. And with this, we construct an aggregator of O(log V) depth, yielding exponential improvements for both parallelism and dependency length while achieving performance competitive with recurrent aggregators. Based on our empirical observations, our proposed learnable commutative monoid (LCM) aggregator represents a favourable tradeoff between efficient and expressive aggregators.

Continual learning can incrementally absorb new concepts without interfering with previously learned knowledge. Motivated by the characteristics of neural networks, in which information is stored in weights on connections, we investigated how to design an Innately Forgetting-Free Network (IF2Net) for continual learning context. This study proposed a straightforward yet effective learning paradigm by ingeniously keeping the weights relative to each seen task untouched before and after learning a new task. We first presented the novel representation-level learning on task sequences with random weights. This technique refers to tweaking the drifted representations caused by randomization back to their separate task-optimal working states, but the involved weights are frozen and reused (opposite to well-known layer-wise updates of weights). Then, sequential decision-making without forgetting can be achieved by projecting the output weight updates into the parsimonious orthogonal space, making the adaptations not disturb old knowledge while maintaining model plasticity. IF2Net allows a single network to inherently learn unlimited mapping rules without telling task identities at test time by integrating the respective strengths of randomization and orthogonalization. We validated the effectiveness of our approach in the extensive theoretical analysis and empirical study.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

Universality is a key hypothesis in mechanistic interpretability -- that different models learn similar features and circuits when trained on similar tasks. In this work, we study the universality hypothesis by examining how small neural networks learn to implement group composition. We present a novel algorithm by which neural networks may implement composition for any finite group via mathematical representation theory. We then show that networks consistently learn this algorithm by reverse engineering model logits and weights, and confirm our understanding using ablations. By studying networks of differing architectures trained on various groups, we find mixed evidence for universality: using our algorithm, we can completely characterize the family of circuits and features that networks learn on this task, but for a given network the precise circuits learned -- as well as the order they develop -- are arbitrary.

Data collected from the real world typically exhibit long-tailed distributions, where frequent classes contain abundant data while rare ones have only a limited number of samples. While existing supervised learning approaches have been proposed to tackle such data imbalance, the requirement of label supervision would limit their applicability to real-world scenarios in which label annotation might not be available. Without the access to class labels nor the associated class frequencies, we propose Frequency-Aware Self-Supervised Learning (FASSL) in this paper. Targeting at learning from unlabeled data with inherent long-tailed distributions, the goal of FASSL is to produce discriminative feature representations for downstream classification tasks. In FASSL, we first learn frequency-aware prototypes, reflecting the associated long-tailed distribution. Particularly focusing on rare-class samples, the relationships between image data and the derived prototypes are further exploited with the introduced self-supervised learning scheme. Experiments on long-tailed image datasets quantitatively and qualitatively verify the effectiveness of our learning scheme.

As the quality of large language models has improved, there has been increased interest in using them to model non-linguistic tokens. For example, the Decision Transformer recasts agentic decision making as a sequence modeling problem, using a decoder-only LLM to model the distribution over the discrete action space for an Atari agent. However, when adapting LLMs to non-linguistic domains, it remains unclear if softmax over discrete bins captures the continuous structure of the tokens and the potentially complex distributions needed for high quality token generation. We introduce a neural network layer, constructed using Fourier series, which we can easily substitute for any linear layer if we want the outputs to have a more continuous structure. We perform extensive analysis on synthetic datasets, as well as on large-scale decision making and time series forecasting tasks. We also provide theoretical evidence that this layer can better learn signal from data while ignoring high-frequency noise. All of our results support the effectiveness of our proposed Fourier head in scenarios where the underlying data distribution has a natural continuous structure. For example, the Fourier head improves a Decision Transformer agent's returns by 46% on the Atari Seaquest game, and increases a state-of-the-art times series foundation model's forecasting performance by 3.5% across 20 benchmarks unseen during training.

Are Large language models (LLMs) temporally grounded? Since LLMs cannot perceive and interact with the environment, it is impossible to answer this question directly. Instead, we provide LLMs with textual narratives and probe them with respect to their common-sense knowledge of the structure and duration of events, their ability to order events along a timeline, and self-consistency within their temporal model (e.g., temporal relations such as after and before are mutually exclusive for any pair of events). We evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (such as LLaMA 2 and GPT-4) on three tasks reflecting these abilities. Generally, we find that LLMs lag significantly behind both human performance as well as small-scale, specialised LMs. In-context learning, instruction tuning, and chain-of-thought prompting reduce this gap only to a limited degree. Crucially, LLMs struggle the most with self-consistency, displaying incoherent behaviour in at least 27.23% of their predictions. Contrary to expectations, we also find that scaling the model size does not guarantee positive gains in performance. To explain these results, we study the sources from which LLMs may gather temporal information: we find that sentence ordering in unlabelled texts, available during pre-training, is only weakly correlated with event ordering. Moreover, public instruction tuning mixtures contain few temporal tasks. Hence, we conclude that current LLMs lack a consistent temporal model of textual narratives. Code, datasets, and LLM outputs are available at https://github.com/yfqiu-nlp/temporal-llms.

The ability to learn different tasks sequentially is essential to the development of artificial intelligence. In general, neural networks lack this capability, the major obstacle being catastrophic forgetting. It occurs when the incrementally available information from non-stationary data distributions is continually acquired, disrupting what the model has already learned. Our approach remembers old tasks by projecting the representations of new tasks close to that of old tasks while keeping the decision boundaries unchanged. We employ the center loss as a regularization penalty that enforces new tasks' features to have the same class centers as old tasks and makes the features highly discriminative. This, in turn, leads to the least forgetting of already learned information. This method is easy to implement, requires minimal computational and memory overhead, and allows the neural network to maintain high performance across many sequentially encountered tasks. We also demonstrate that using the center loss in conjunction with the memory replay outperforms other replay-based strategies. Along with standard MNIST variants for continual learning, we apply our method to continual domain adaptation scenarios with the Digits and PACS datasets. We demonstrate that our approach is scalable, effective, and gives competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art continual learning methods.

In Continual learning (CL) balancing effective adaptation while combating catastrophic forgetting is a central challenge. Many of the recent best-performing methods utilize various forms of prior task data, e.g. a replay buffer, to tackle the catastrophic forgetting problem. Having access to previous task data can be restrictive in many real-world scenarios, for example when task data is sensitive or proprietary. To overcome the necessity of using previous tasks' data, in this work, we start with strong representation learning methods that have been shown to be less prone to forgetting. We propose a holistic approach to jointly learn the representation and class prototypes while maintaining the relevance of old class prototypes and their embedded similarities. Specifically, samples are mapped to an embedding space where the representations are learned using a supervised contrastive loss. Class prototypes are evolved continually in the same latent space, enabling learning and prediction at any point. To continually adapt the prototypes without keeping any prior task data, we propose a novel distillation loss that constrains class prototypes to maintain relative similarities as compared to new task data. This method yields state-of-the-art performance in the task-incremental setting, outperforming methods relying on large amounts of data, and provides strong performance in the class-incremental setting without using any stored data points.

We introduce Explanatory Learning (EL), a framework to let machines use existing knowledge buried in symbolic sequences -- e.g. explanations written in hieroglyphic -- by autonomously learning to interpret them. In EL, the burden of interpreting symbols is not left to humans or rigid human-coded compilers, as done in Program Synthesis. Rather, EL calls for a learned interpreter, built upon a limited collection of symbolic sequences paired with observations of several phenomena. This interpreter can be used to make predictions on a novel phenomenon given its explanation, and even to find that explanation using only a handful of observations, like human scientists do. We formulate the EL problem as a simple binary classification task, so that common end-to-end approaches aligned with the dominant empiricist view of machine learning could, in principle, solve it. To these models, we oppose Critical Rationalist Networks (CRNs), which instead embrace a rationalist view on the acquisition of knowledge. CRNs express several desired properties by construction, they are truly explainable, can adjust their processing at test-time for harder inferences, and can offer strong confidence guarantees on their predictions. As a final contribution, we introduce Odeen, a basic EL environment that simulates a small flatland-style universe full of phenomena to explain. Using Odeen as a testbed, we show how CRNs outperform empiricist end-to-end approaches of similar size and architecture (Transformers) in discovering explanations for novel phenomena.

Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks is a significant problem for continual learning. A majority of the current methods replay previous data during training, which violates the constraints of an ideal continual learning system. Additionally, current approaches that deal with forgetting ignore the problem of catastrophic remembering, i.e. the worsening ability to discriminate between data from different tasks. In our work, we introduce Relevance Mapping Networks (RMNs) which are inspired by the Optimal Overlap Hypothesis. The mappings reflects the relevance of the weights for the task at hand by assigning large weights to essential parameters. We show that RMNs learn an optimized representational overlap that overcomes the twin problem of catastrophic forgetting and remembering. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across all common continual learning datasets, even significantly outperforming data replay methods while not violating the constraints for an ideal continual learning system. Moreover, RMNs retain the ability to detect data from new tasks in an unsupervised manner, thus proving their resilience against catastrophic remembering.

In this paper we propose a novel model for unconditional audio generation based on generating one audio sample at a time. We show that our model, which profits from combining memory-less modules, namely autoregressive multilayer perceptrons, and stateful recurrent neural networks in a hierarchical structure is able to capture underlying sources of variations in the temporal sequences over very long time spans, on three datasets of different nature. Human evaluation on the generated samples indicate that our model is preferred over competing models. We also show how each component of the model contributes to the exhibited performance.

A major problem with Active Learning (AL) is high training costs since models are typically retrained from scratch after every query round. We start by demonstrating that standard AL on neural networks with warm starting fails, both to accelerate training and to avoid catastrophic forgetting when using fine-tuning over AL query rounds. We then develop a new class of techniques, circumventing this problem, by biasing further training towards previously labeled sets. We accomplish this by employing existing, and developing novel, replay-based Continual Learning (CL) algorithms that are effective at quickly learning the new without forgetting the old, especially when data comes from an evolving distribution. We call this paradigm Continual Active Learning (CAL). We show CAL achieves significant speedups using a plethora of replay schemes that use model distillation and that select diverse, uncertain points from the history. We conduct experiments across many data domains, including natural language, vision, medical imaging, and computational biology, each with different neural architectures and dataset sizes. CAL consistently provides a 3x reduction in training time, while retaining performance.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

We propose a novel method called Long Expressive Memory (LEM) for learning long-term sequential dependencies. LEM is gradient-based, it can efficiently process sequential tasks with very long-term dependencies, and it is sufficiently expressive to be able to learn complicated input-output maps. To derive LEM, we consider a system of multiscale ordinary differential equations, as well as a suitable time-discretization of this system. For LEM, we derive rigorous bounds to show the mitigation of the exploding and vanishing gradients problem, a well-known challenge for gradient-based recurrent sequential learning methods. We also prove that LEM can approximate a large class of dynamical systems to high accuracy. Our empirical results, ranging from image and time-series classification through dynamical systems prediction to speech recognition and language modeling, demonstrate that LEM outperforms state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks, gated recurrent units, and long short-term memory models.

In many domains, autoregressive models can attain high likelihood on the task of predicting the next observation. However, this maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective does not necessarily match a downstream use-case of autoregressively generating high-quality sequences. The MLE objective weights sequences proportionally to their frequency under the data distribution, with no guidance for the model's behaviour out of distribution (OOD): leading to compounding error during autoregressive generation. In order to address this compounding error problem, we formulate sequence generation as an imitation learning (IL) problem. This allows us to minimize a variety of divergences between the distribution of sequences generated by an autoregressive model and sequences from a dataset, including divergences with weight on OOD generated sequences. The IL framework also allows us to incorporate backtracking by introducing a backspace action into the generation process. This further mitigates the compounding error problem by allowing the model to revert a sampled token if it takes the sequence OOD. Our resulting method, SequenceMatch, can be implemented without adversarial training or major architectural changes. We identify the SequenceMatch-chi^2 divergence as a more suitable training objective for autoregressive models which are used for generation. We show that empirically, SequenceMatch training leads to improvements over MLE on text generation with language models.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Over the past decade, tremendous progress has been made in Recommender Systems (RecSys) for well-known tasks such as next-item and next-basket prediction. On the other hand, the recently proposed next-period recommendation (NPR) task is not covered as much. Current works about NPR are mostly based around distinct problem formulations, methods, and proprietary datasets, making solutions difficult to reproduce. In this article, we aim to fill the gap in RecSys methods evaluation on the NPR task using publicly available datasets and (1) introduce the TTRS, a large-scale financial transactions dataset suitable for RecSys methods evaluation; (2) benchmark popular RecSys approaches on several datasets for the NPR task. When performing our analysis, we found a strong repetitive consumption pattern in several real-world datasets. With this setup, our results suggest that the repetitive nature of data is still hard to generalize for the evaluated RecSys methods, and novel item prediction performance is still questionable.

Contrastive representation learning is crucial in medical time series analysis as it alleviates dependency on labor-intensive, domain-specific, and scarce expert annotations. However, existing contrastive learning methods primarily focus on one single data level, which fails to fully exploit the intricate nature of medical time series. To address this issue, we present COMET, an innovative hierarchical framework that leverages data consistencies at all inherent levels in medical time series. Our meticulously designed model systematically captures data consistency from four potential levels: observation, sample, trial, and patient levels. By developing contrastive loss at multiple levels, we can learn effective representations that preserve comprehensive data consistency, maximizing information utilization in a self-supervised manner. We conduct experiments in the challenging patient-independent setting. We compare COMET against six baselines using three diverse datasets, which include ECG signals for myocardial infarction and EEG signals for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. The results demonstrate that COMET consistently outperforms all baselines, particularly in setup with 10% and 1% labeled data fractions across all datasets. These results underscore the significant impact of our framework in advancing contrastive representation learning techniques for medical time series. The source code is available at https://github.com/DL4mHealth/COMET.

Large language models (LLMs) are not amenable to frequent re-training, due to high training costs arising from their massive scale. However, updates are necessary to endow LLMs with new skills and keep them up-to-date with rapidly evolving human knowledge. This paper surveys recent works on continual learning for LLMs. Due to the unique nature of LLMs, we catalog continue learning techniques in a novel multi-staged categorization scheme, involving continual pretraining, instruction tuning, and alignment. We contrast continual learning for LLMs with simpler adaptation methods used in smaller models, as well as with other enhancement strategies like retrieval-augmented generation and model editing. Moreover, informed by a discussion of benchmarks and evaluation, we identify several challenges and future work directions for this crucial task.

Continual learning and few-shot learning are important frontiers in progress towards broader Machine Learning (ML) capabilities. There is a growing body of work in both, but few works combining the two. One exception is the Continual few-shot Learning (CFSL) framework of Antoniou et al. arXiv:2004.11967. In this study, we extend CFSL in two ways that capture a broader range of challenges, important for intelligent agent behaviour in real-world conditions. First, we modify CFSL to make it more comparable to standard continual learning experiments, where usually a much larger number of classes are presented. Second, we introduce an 'instance test' which requires recognition of specific instances of classes -- a capability of animal cognition that is usually neglected in ML. For an initial exploration of ML model performance under these conditions, we selected representative baseline models from the original CFSL work and added a model variant with replay. As expected, learning more classes is more difficult than the original CFSL experiments, and interestingly, the way in which image instances and classes are presented affects classification performance. Surprisingly, accuracy in the baseline instance test is comparable to other classification tasks, but poor given significant occlusion and noise. The use of replay for consolidation improves performance substantially for both types of tasks, but particularly the instance test.

In real-world environments, continual learning is essential for machine learning models, as they need to acquire new knowledge incrementally without forgetting what they have already learned. While pretrained language models have shown impressive capabilities on various static tasks, applying them to continual learning poses significant challenges, including avoiding catastrophic forgetting, facilitating knowledge transfer, and maintaining parameter efficiency. In this paper, we introduce MoCL-P, a novel lightweight continual learning method that addresses these challenges simultaneously. Unlike traditional approaches that continuously expand parameters for newly arriving tasks, MoCL-P integrates task representation-guided module composition with adaptive pruning, effectively balancing knowledge integration and computational overhead. Our evaluation across three continual learning benchmarks with up to 176 tasks shows that MoCL-P achieves state-of-the-art performance and improves parameter efficiency by up to three times, demonstrating its potential for practical applications where resource requirements are constrained.

Loss of plasticity is a phenomenon where neural networks become more difficult to train during the course of learning. Continual learning algorithms seek to mitigate this effect by sustaining good predictive performance while maintaining network trainability. We develop new techniques for improving continual learning by first reconsidering how initialization can ensure trainability during early phases of learning. From this perspective, we derive new regularization strategies for continual learning that ensure beneficial initialization properties are better maintained throughout training. In particular, we investigate two new regularization techniques for continual learning: (i) Wasserstein regularization toward the initial weight distribution, which is less restrictive than regularizing toward initial weights; and (ii) regularizing weight matrix singular values, which directly ensures gradient diversity is maintained throughout training. We present an experimental analysis that shows these alternative regularizers can improve continual learning performance across a range of supervised learning tasks and model architectures. The alternative regularizers prove to be less sensitive to hyperparameters while demonstrating better training in individual tasks, sustaining trainability as new tasks arrive, and achieving better generalization performance.

Learning compatible representations enables the interchangeable use of semantic features as models are updated over time. This is particularly relevant in search and retrieval systems where it is crucial to avoid reprocessing of the gallery images with the updated model. While recent research has shown promising empirical evidence, there is still a lack of comprehensive theoretical understanding about learning compatible representations. In this paper, we demonstrate that the stationary representations learned by the d-Simplex fixed classifier optimally approximate compatibility representation according to the two inequality constraints of its formal definition. This not only establishes a solid foundation for future works in this line of research but also presents implications that can be exploited in practical learning scenarios. An exemplary application is the now-standard practice of downloading and fine-tuning new pre-trained models. Specifically, we show the strengths and critical issues of stationary representations in the case in which a model undergoing sequential fine-tuning is asynchronously replaced by downloading a better-performing model pre-trained elsewhere. Such a representation enables seamless delivery of retrieval service (i.e., no reprocessing of gallery images) and offers improved performance without operational disruptions during model replacement. Code available at: https://github.com/miccunifi/iamcl2r.

The development of generative language models that can create long and coherent textual outputs via autoregression has lead to a proliferation of uses and a corresponding sweep of analyses as researches work to determine the limitations of this new paradigm. Unlike humans, these 'Large Language Models' (LLMs) are highly sensitive to small changes in their inputs, leading to unwanted inconsistency in their behavior. One problematic inconsistency when LLMs are used to answer multiple-choice questions or analyze multiple inputs is order dependency: the output of an LLM can (and often does) change significantly when sub-sequences are swapped, despite both orderings being semantically identical. In this paper we present , a technique that guarantees the output of an LLM will not have order dependence on a specified set of sub-sequences. We show that this method provably eliminates order dependency, and that it can be applied to any transformer-based LLM to enable text generation that is unaffected by re-orderings. Delving into the implications of our method, we show that, despite our inputs being out of distribution, the impact on expected accuracy is small, where the expectation is over the order of uniformly chosen shuffling of the candidate responses, and usually significantly less in practice. Thus, can be used as a 'dropped-in' method on fully trained models. Finally, we discuss how our method's success suggests that other strong guarantees can be obtained on LLM performance via modifying the input representations.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Continual learning (CL), which aims to learn a sequence of tasks, has attracted significant recent attention. However, most work has focused on the experimental performance of CL, and theoretical studies of CL are still limited. In particular, there is a lack of understanding on what factors are important and how they affect "catastrophic forgetting" and generalization performance. To fill this gap, our theoretical analysis, under overparameterized linear models, provides the first-known explicit form of the expected forgetting and generalization error. Further analysis of such a key result yields a number of theoretical explanations about how overparameterization, task similarity, and task ordering affect both forgetting and generalization error of CL. More interestingly, by conducting experiments on real datasets using deep neural networks (DNNs), we show that some of these insights even go beyond the linear models and can be carried over to practical setups. In particular, we use concrete examples to show that our results not only explain some interesting empirical observations in recent studies, but also motivate better practical algorithm designs of CL.

The goal of lifelong learning is to continuously learn from non-stationary distributions, where the non-stationarity is typically imposed by a sequence of distinct tasks. Prior works have mostly considered idealistic settings, where the identity of tasks is known at least at training. In this paper we focus on a fundamentally harder, so-called task-agnostic setting where the task identities are not known and the learning machine needs to infer them from the observations. Our algorithm, which we call TAME (Task-Agnostic continual learning using Multiple Experts), automatically detects the shift in data distributions and switches between task expert networks in an online manner. At training, the strategy for switching between tasks hinges on an extremely simple observation that for each new coming task there occurs a statistically-significant deviation in the value of the loss function that marks the onset of this new task. At inference, the switching between experts is governed by the selector network that forwards the test sample to its relevant expert network. The selector network is trained on a small subset of data drawn uniformly at random. We control the growth of the task expert networks as well as selector network by employing online pruning. Our experimental results show the efficacy of our approach on benchmark continual learning data sets, outperforming the previous task-agnostic methods and even the techniques that admit task identities at both training and testing, while at the same time using a comparable model size.

Recently, a new Continual Learning (CL) paradigm was presented to control catastrophic forgetting, called Interval Continual Learning (InterContiNet), which relies on enforcing interval constraints on the neural network parameter space. Unfortunately, InterContiNet training is challenging due to the high dimensionality of the weight space, making intervals difficult to manage. To address this issue, we introduce HyperInterval, a technique that employs interval arithmetic within the embedding space and utilizes a hypernetwork to map these intervals to the target network parameter space. We train interval embeddings for consecutive tasks and train a hypernetwork to transform these embeddings into weights of the target network. An embedding for a given task is trained along with the hypernetwork, preserving the response of the target network for the previous task embeddings. Interval arithmetic works with a more manageable, lower-dimensional embedding space rather than directly preparing intervals in a high-dimensional weight space. Our model allows faster and more efficient training. Furthermore, HyperInterval maintains the guarantee of not forgetting. At the end of training, we can choose one universal embedding to produce a single network dedicated to all tasks. In such a framework, hypernetwork is used only for training and can be seen as a meta-trainer. HyperInterval obtains significantly better results than InterContiNet and gives SOTA results on several benchmarks.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

In this paper we introduce Feature Gradients, a gradient-based search algorithm for feature selection. Our approach extends a recent result on the estimation of learnability in the sublinear data regime by showing that the calculation can be performed iteratively (i.e., in mini-batches) and in linear time and space with respect to both the number of features D and the sample size N . This, along with a discrete-to-continuous relaxation of the search domain, allows for an efficient, gradient-based search algorithm among feature subsets for very large datasets. Crucially, our algorithm is capable of finding higher-order correlations between features and targets for both the N > D and N < D regimes, as opposed to approaches that do not consider such interactions and/or only consider one regime. We provide experimental demonstration of the algorithm in small and large sample-and feature-size settings.

Explaining deep learning models operating on time series data is crucial in various applications of interest which require interpretable and transparent insights from time series signals. In this work, we investigate this problem from an information theoretic perspective and show that most existing measures of explainability may suffer from trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. To address these issues, we introduce a simple yet practical objective function for time series explainable learning. The design of the objective function builds upon the principle of information bottleneck (IB), and modifies the IB objective function to avoid trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. We further present TimeX++, a novel explanation framework that leverages a parametric network to produce explanation-embedded instances that are both in-distributed and label-preserving. We evaluate TimeX++ on both synthetic and real-world datasets comparing its performance against leading baselines, and validate its practical efficacy through case studies in a real-world environmental application. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations show that TimeX++ outperforms baselines across all datasets, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/TimeXplusplus.

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have sparked debate over whether such systems just learn an enormous collection of superficial statistics or a coherent model of the data generating process -- a world model. We find evidence for the latter by analyzing the learned representations of three spatial datasets (world, US, NYC places) and three temporal datasets (historical figures, artworks, news headlines) in the Llama-2 family of models. We discover that LLMs learn linear representations of space and time across multiple scales. These representations are robust to prompting variations and unified across different entity types (e.g. cities and landmarks). In addition, we identify individual ``space neurons'' and ``time neurons'' that reliably encode spatial and temporal coordinates. Our analysis demonstrates that modern LLMs acquire structured knowledge about fundamental dimensions such as space and time, supporting the view that they learn not merely superficial statistics, but literal world models.

Learning from changing tasks and sequential experience without forgetting the obtained knowledge is a challenging problem for artificial neural networks. In this work, we focus on two challenging problems in the paradigm of Continual Learning (CL) without involving any old data: (i) the accumulation of catastrophic forgetting caused by the gradually fading knowledge space from which the model learns the previous knowledge; (ii) the uncontrolled tug-of-war dynamics to balance the stability and plasticity during the learning of new tasks. In order to tackle these problems, we present Progressive Learning without Forgetting (PLwF) and a credit assignment regime in the optimizer. PLwF densely introduces model functions from previous tasks to construct a knowledge space such that it contains the most reliable knowledge on each task and the distribution information of different tasks, while credit assignment controls the tug-of-war dynamics by removing gradient conflict through projection. Extensive ablative experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of PLwF and credit assignment. In comparison with other CL methods, we report notably better results even without relying on any raw data.

We show that both an LSTM and a unitary-evolution recurrent neural network (URN) can achieve encouraging accuracy on two types of syntactic patterns: context-free long distance agreement, and mildly context-sensitive cross serial dependencies. This work extends recent experiments on deeply nested context-free long distance dependencies, with similar results. URNs differ from LSTMs in that they avoid non-linear activation functions, and they apply matrix multiplication to word embeddings encoded as unitary matrices. This permits them to retain all information in the processing of an input string over arbitrary distances. It also causes them to satisfy strict compositionality. URNs constitute a significant advance in the search for explainable models in deep learning applied to NLP.

Explaining multivariate time series is a compound challenge, as it requires identifying important locations in the time series and matching complex temporal patterns. Although previous saliency-based methods addressed the challenges, their perturbation may not alleviate the distribution shift issue, which is inevitable especially in heterogeneous samples. We present ContraLSP, a locally sparse model that introduces counterfactual samples to build uninformative perturbations but keeps distribution using contrastive learning. Furthermore, we incorporate sample-specific sparse gates to generate more binary-skewed and smooth masks, which easily integrate temporal trends and select the salient features parsimoniously. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that ContraLSP outperforms state-of-the-art models, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/ContraLSP.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

Learning continually from non-stationary data streams is a long-standing goal and a challenging problem in machine learning. Recently, we have witnessed a renewed and fast-growing interest in continual learning, especially within the deep learning community. However, algorithmic solutions are often difficult to re-implement, evaluate and port across different settings, where even results on standard benchmarks are hard to reproduce. In this work, we propose Avalanche, an open-source end-to-end library for continual learning research based on PyTorch. Avalanche is designed to provide a shared and collaborative codebase for fast prototyping, training, and reproducible evaluation of continual learning algorithms.

In the field of autonomous driving, even a meticulously trained model can encounter failures when faced with unfamiliar sceanrios. One of these scenarios can be formulated as an online continual learning (OCL) problem. That is, data come in an online fashion, and models are updated according to these streaming data. Two major OCL challenges are catastrophic forgetting and data imbalance. To address these challenges, in this paper, we propose an Analytic Exemplar-Free Online Continual Learning (AEF-OCL). The AEF-OCL leverages analytic continual learning principles and employs ridge regression as a classifier for features extracted by a large backbone network. It solves the OCL problem by recursively calculating the analytical solution, ensuring an equalization between the continual learning and its joint-learning counterpart, and works without the need to save any used samples (i.e., exemplar-free). Additionally, we introduce a Pseudo-Features Generator (PFG) module that recursively estimates the deviation of real features. The PFG generates offset pseudo-features following a normal distribution, thereby addressing the data imbalance issue. Experimental results demonstrate that despite being an exemplar-free strategy, our method outperforms various methods on the autonomous driving SODA10M dataset. Source code is available at https://github.com/ZHUANGHP/Analytic-continual-learning.

Neural sequence models are widely used to model time-series data. Equally ubiquitous is the usage of beam search (BS) as an approximate inference algorithm to decode output sequences from these models. BS explores the search space in a greedy left-right fashion retaining only the top-B candidates - resulting in sequences that differ only slightly from each other. Producing lists of nearly identical sequences is not only computationally wasteful but also typically fails to capture the inherent ambiguity of complex AI tasks. To overcome this problem, we propose Diverse Beam Search (DBS), an alternative to BS that decodes a list of diverse outputs by optimizing for a diversity-augmented objective. We observe that our method finds better top-1 solutions by controlling for the exploration and exploitation of the search space - implying that DBS is a better search algorithm. Moreover, these gains are achieved with minimal computational or memory over- head as compared to beam search. To demonstrate the broad applicability of our method, we present results on image captioning, machine translation and visual question generation using both standard quantitative metrics and qualitative human studies. Further, we study the role of diversity for image-grounded language generation tasks as the complexity of the image changes. We observe that our method consistently outperforms BS and previously proposed techniques for diverse decoding from neural sequence models.

Stochastic latent variable models (LVMs) achieve state-of-the-art performance on natural image generation but are still inferior to deterministic models on speech. In this paper, we develop a speech benchmark of popular temporal LVMs and compare them against state-of-the-art deterministic models. We report the likelihood, which is a much used metric in the image domain, but rarely, or incomparably, reported for speech models. To assess the quality of the learned representations, we also compare their usefulness for phoneme recognition. Finally, we adapt the Clockwork VAE, a state-of-the-art temporal LVM for video generation, to the speech domain. Despite being autoregressive only in latent space, we find that the Clockwork VAE can outperform previous LVMs and reduce the gap to deterministic models by using a hierarchy of latent variables.

We demonstrate that LLMs may learn indicators of document usefulness and modulate their updates accordingly. We introduce random strings ("tags") as indicators of usefulness in a synthetic fine-tuning dataset. Fine-tuning on this dataset leads to implicit meta-learning (IML): in further fine-tuning, the model updates to make more use of text that is tagged as useful. We perform a thorough empirical investigation of this phenomenon, finding (among other things) that (i) it occurs in both pretrained LLMs and those trained from scratch, as well as on a vision task, and (ii) larger models and smaller batch sizes tend to give more IML. We also use probing to examine how IML changes the way models store knowledge in their parameters. Finally, we reflect on what our results might imply about capabilities, risks, and controllability of future AI systems. Our code can be found at https://github.com/krasheninnikov/internalization.

Continual Learning (CL) focuses on learning from dynamic and changing data distributions while retaining previously acquired knowledge. Various methods have been developed to address the challenge of catastrophic forgetting, including regularization-based, Bayesian-based, and memory-replay-based techniques. However, these methods lack a unified framework and common terminology for describing their approaches. This research aims to bridge this gap by introducing a comprehensive and overarching framework that encompasses and reconciles these existing methodologies. Notably, this new framework is capable of encompassing established CL approaches as special instances within a unified and general optimization objective. An intriguing finding is that despite their diverse origins, these methods share common mathematical structures. This observation highlights the compatibility of these seemingly distinct techniques, revealing their interconnectedness through a shared underlying optimization objective. Moreover, the proposed general framework introduces an innovative concept called refresh learning, specifically designed to enhance the CL performance. This novel approach draws inspiration from neuroscience, where the human brain often sheds outdated information to improve the retention of crucial knowledge and facilitate the acquisition of new information. In essence, refresh learning operates by initially unlearning current data and subsequently relearning it. It serves as a versatile plug-in that seamlessly integrates with existing CL methods, offering an adaptable and effective enhancement to the learning process. Extensive experiments on CL benchmarks and theoretical analysis demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed refresh learning. Code is available at https://github.com/joey-wang123/CL-refresh-learning.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

Benchmarking the tradeoff between neural network accuracy and training time is computationally expensive. Here we show how a multiplicative cyclic learning rate schedule can be used to construct a tradeoff curve in a single training run. We generate cyclic tradeoff curves for combinations of training methods such as Blurpool, Channels Last, Label Smoothing and MixUp, and highlight how these cyclic tradeoff curves can be used to evaluate the effects of algorithmic choices on network training efficiency.

The remarkable capability of large language models (LLMs) for in-context learning (ICL) needs to be activated by demonstration examples. Prior work has extensively explored the selection of examples for ICL, predominantly following the "select then organize" paradigm, such approaches often neglect the internal relationships between examples and exist an inconsistency between the training and inference. In this paper, we formulate the problem as a sequential selection problem and introduce Se^2, a sequential-aware method that leverages the LLM's feedback on varying context, aiding in capturing inter-relationships and sequential information among examples, significantly enriching the contextuality and relevance of ICL prompts. Meanwhile, we utilize beam search to seek and construct example sequences, enhancing both quality and diversity. Extensive experiments across 23 NLP tasks from 8 distinct categories illustrate that Se^2 markedly surpasses competitive baselines and achieves 42% relative improvement over random selection. Further in-depth analysis show the effectiveness of proposed strategies, highlighting Se^2's exceptional stability and adaptability across various scenarios. Our code will be released to facilitate future research.

Continual learning enables incremental learning of new tasks without forgetting those previously learned, resulting in positive knowledge transfer that can enhance performance on both new and old tasks. However, continual learning poses new challenges for interpretability, as the rationale behind model predictions may change over time, leading to interpretability concept drift. We address this problem by proposing Interpretable Class-InCremental LEarning (ICICLE), an exemplar-free approach that adopts a prototypical part-based approach. It consists of three crucial novelties: interpretability regularization that distills previously learned concepts while preserving user-friendly positive reasoning; proximity-based prototype initialization strategy dedicated to the fine-grained setting; and task-recency bias compensation devoted to prototypical parts. Our experimental results demonstrate that ICICLE reduces the interpretability concept drift and outperforms the existing exemplar-free methods of common class-incremental learning when applied to concept-based models.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Continual Learning (CL) investigates how to train Deep Networks on a stream of tasks without incurring forgetting. CL settings proposed in literature assume that every incoming example is paired with ground-truth annotations. However, this clashes with many real-world applications: gathering labeled data, which is in itself tedious and expensive, becomes infeasible when data flow as a stream. This work explores Continual Semi-Supervised Learning (CSSL): here, only a small fraction of labeled input examples are shown to the learner. We assess how current CL methods (e.g.: EWC, LwF, iCaRL, ER, GDumb, DER) perform in this novel and challenging scenario, where overfitting entangles forgetting. Subsequently, we design a novel CSSL method that exploits metric learning and consistency regularization to leverage unlabeled examples while learning. We show that our proposal exhibits higher resilience to diminishing supervision and, even more surprisingly, relying only on 25% supervision suffices to outperform SOTA methods trained under full supervision.

Neural networks often suffer from catastrophic interference (CI): performance on previously learned tasks drops off significantly when learning a new task. This contrasts strongly with humans, who can sequentially learn new tasks without appreciably forgetting previous tasks. Prior work has explored various techniques for mitigating CI such as regularization, rehearsal, generative replay, and distillation methods. The current work takes a different approach, one guided by cognitive science research showing that in naturalistic environments, the probability of encountering a task decreases as a power-law of the time since it was last performed. We argue that a realistic evaluation of techniques for the mitigation of CI should be performed in simulated naturalistic learning environments. Thus, we evaluate the extent of mitigation of CI when training simple rehearsal-based methods in power-law environments similar to the ones humans face. Our work explores this novel rehearsal-based approach for a domain-incremental task: learning permutations in the MNIST task. We compare our rehearsal environment with other baselines to show its efficacy in promoting continual learning. Additionally, we investigate whether this environment shows forward facilitation, i.e., faster learning of later tasks. Next, we explore the robustness of our learning environment to the number of tasks, model size, and amount of data rehearsed after each task. Notably, our results show that the performance is comparable or superior to that of models trained using popular regularization methods and also to rehearsals in non-power-law environments. The benefits of this training paradigm include simplicity and the lack of a need for extra neural circuitry. In addition, because our method is orthogonal to other methods, future research can combine training in power-law environments with other continual learning mechanisms.

Understanding time series is crucial for its application in real-world scenarios. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly applied to time series tasks, leveraging their strong language capabilities to enhance various applications. However, research on multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) for time series understanding and reasoning remains limited, primarily due to the scarcity of high-quality datasets that align time series with textual information. This paper introduces ChatTS, a novel MLLM designed for time series analysis. ChatTS treats time series as a modality, similar to how vision MLLMs process images, enabling it to perform both understanding and reasoning with time series. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose an attribute-based method for generating synthetic time series with detailed attribute descriptions. We further introduce Time Series Evol-Instruct, a novel approach that generates diverse time series Q&As, enhancing the model's reasoning capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, ChatTS is the first MLLM that takes multivariate time series as input, which is fine-tuned exclusively on synthetic datasets. We evaluate its performance using benchmark datasets with real-world data, including six alignment tasks and four reasoning tasks. Our results show that ChatTS significantly outperforms existing vision-based MLLMs (e.g., GPT-4o) and text/agent-based LLMs, achieving a 46.0% improvement in alignment tasks and a 25.8% improvement in reasoning tasks.

Few Shot Class Incremental Learning (FSCIL) with few examples per class for each incremental session is the realistic setting of continual learning since obtaining large number of annotated samples is not feasible and cost effective. We present the framework MASIL as a step towards learning the maximal separable classifier. It addresses the common problem i.e forgetting of old classes and over-fitting to novel classes by learning the classifier weights to be maximally separable between classes forming a simplex Equiangular Tight Frame. We propose the idea of concept factorization explaining the collapsed features for base session classes in terms of concept basis and use these to induce classifier simplex for few shot classes. We further adds fine tuning to reduce any error occurred during factorization and train the classifier jointly on base and novel classes without retaining any base class samples in memory. Experimental results on miniImageNet, CIFAR-100 and CUB-200 demonstrate that MASIL outperforms all the benchmarks.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

Predictive coding networks are neuroscience-inspired models with roots in both Bayesian statistics and neuroscience. Training such models, however, is quite inefficient and unstable. In this work, we show how by simply changing the temporal scheduling of the update rule for the synaptic weights leads to an algorithm that is much more efficient and stable than the original one, and has theoretical guarantees in terms of convergence. The proposed algorithm, that we call incremental predictive coding (iPC) is also more biologically plausible than the original one, as it it fully automatic. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that iPC constantly performs better than the original formulation on a large number of benchmarks for image classification, as well as for the training of both conditional and masked language models, in terms of test accuracy, efficiency, and convergence with respect to a large set of hyperparameters.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

We introduce RecurrentGemma, an open language model which uses Google's novel Griffin architecture. Griffin combines linear recurrences with local attention to achieve excellent performance on language. It has a fixed-sized state, which reduces memory use and enables efficient inference on long sequences. We provide a pre-trained model with 2B non-embedding parameters, and an instruction tuned variant. Both models achieve comparable performance to Gemma-2B despite being trained on fewer tokens.

Continual learning is a challenging problem in which models need to be trained on non-stationary data across sequential tasks for class-incremental learning. While previous methods have focused on using either regularization or rehearsal-based frameworks to alleviate catastrophic forgetting in image classification, they are limited to a single modality and cannot learn compact class-aware cross-modal representations for continual audio-visual learning. To address this gap, we propose a novel class-incremental grouping network (CIGN) that can learn category-wise semantic features to achieve continual audio-visual learning. Our CIGN leverages learnable audio-visual class tokens and audio-visual grouping to continually aggregate class-aware features. Additionally, it utilizes class tokens distillation and continual grouping to prevent forgetting parameters learned from previous tasks, thereby improving the model's ability to capture discriminative audio-visual categories. We conduct extensive experiments on VGGSound-Instruments, VGGSound-100, and VGG-Sound Sources benchmarks. Our experimental results demonstrate that the CIGN achieves state-of-the-art audio-visual class-incremental learning performance. Code is available at https://github.com/stoneMo/CIGN.

Over more than a decade there has been an extensive research effort on how to effectively utilize recurrent models and attention. While recurrent models aim to compress the data into a fixed-size memory (called hidden state), attention allows attending to the entire context window, capturing the direct dependencies of all tokens. This more accurate modeling of dependencies, however, comes with a quadratic cost, limiting the model to a fixed-length context. We present a new neural long-term memory module that learns to memorize historical context and helps attention to attend to the current context while utilizing long past information. We show that this neural memory has the advantage of fast parallelizable training while maintaining a fast inference. From a memory perspective, we argue that attention due to its limited context but accurate dependency modeling performs as a short-term memory, while neural memory due to its ability to memorize the data, acts as a long-term, more persistent, memory. Based on these two modules, we introduce a new family of architectures, called Titans, and present three variants to address how one can effectively incorporate memory into this architecture. Our experimental results on language modeling, common-sense reasoning, genomics, and time series tasks show that Titans are more effective than Transformers and recent modern linear recurrent models. They further can effectively scale to larger than 2M context window size with higher accuracy in needle-in-haystack tasks compared to baselines.

Recent empirical works have successfully used unlabeled data to learn feature representations that are broadly useful in downstream classification tasks. Several of these methods are reminiscent of the well-known word2vec embedding algorithm: leveraging availability of pairs of semantically "similar" data points and "negative samples," the learner forces the inner product of representations of similar pairs with each other to be higher on average than with negative samples. The current paper uses the term contrastive learning for such algorithms and presents a theoretical framework for analyzing them by introducing latent classes and hypothesizing that semantically similar points are sampled from the same latent class. This framework allows us to show provable guarantees on the performance of the learned representations on the average classification task that is comprised of a subset of the same set of latent classes. Our generalization bound also shows that learned representations can reduce (labeled) sample complexity on downstream tasks. We conduct controlled experiments in both the text and image domains to support the theory.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Humans learn continually throughout their lifespan by accumulating diverse knowledge and fine-tuning it for future tasks. When presented with a similar goal, neural networks suffer from catastrophic forgetting if data distributions across sequential tasks are not stationary over the course of learning. An effective approach to address such continual learning (CL) problems is to use hypernetworks which generate task dependent weights for a target network. However, the continual learning performance of existing hypernetwork based approaches are affected by the assumption of independence of the weights across the layers in order to maintain parameter efficiency. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach that uses a dependency preserving hypernetwork to generate weights for the target network while also maintaining the parameter efficiency. We propose to use recurrent neural network (RNN) based hypernetwork that can generate layer weights efficiently while allowing for dependencies across them. In addition, we propose novel regularisation and network growth techniques for the RNN based hypernetwork to further improve the continual learning performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, we conducted experiments on several image classification continual learning tasks and settings. We found that the proposed methods based on the RNN hypernetworks outperformed the baselines in all these CL settings and tasks.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Supervised Continual learning involves updating a deep neural network (DNN) from an ever-growing stream of labeled data. While most work has focused on overcoming catastrophic forgetting, one of the major motivations behind continual learning is being able to efficiently update a network with new information, rather than retraining from scratch on the training dataset as it grows over time. Despite recent continual learning methods largely solving the catastrophic forgetting problem, there has been little attention paid to the efficiency of these algorithms. Here, we study recent methods for incremental class learning and illustrate that many are highly inefficient in terms of compute, memory, and storage. Some methods even require more compute than training from scratch! We argue that for continual learning to have real-world applicability, the research community cannot ignore the resources used by these algorithms. There is more to continual learning than mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

Lifelong audio feature extraction involves learning new sound classes incrementally, which is essential for adapting to new data distributions over time. However, optimizing the model only on new data can lead to catastrophic forgetting of previously learned tasks, which undermines the model's ability to perform well over the long term. This paper introduces a new approach to continual audio representation learning called DeCoR. Unlike other methods that store previous data, features, or models, DeCoR indirectly distills knowledge from an earlier model to the latest by predicting quantization indices from a delayed codebook. We demonstrate that DeCoR improves acoustic scene classification accuracy and integrates well with continual self-supervised representation learning. Our approach introduces minimal storage and computation overhead, making it a lightweight and efficient solution for continual learning.

Language models (LMs), like other neural networks, often favor shortcut heuristics based on surface-level patterns. Although LMs behave like n-gram models early in training, they must eventually learn hierarchical syntactic representations to correctly apply grammatical rules out-of-distribution (OOD). In this work, we use case studies of English grammar to explore how complex, diverse training data drives models to generalize OOD. We construct a framework that unifies our understanding of random variation with training dynamics, rule selection with memorization, and data diversity with complexity. We show that these factors are nuanced, and that intermediate levels of diversity and complexity lead to inconsistent behavior across random seeds and to unstable training dynamics. Our findings emphasize the critical role of training data in shaping generalization patterns and illuminate how competing model strategies lead to inconsistent generalization outcomes across random seeds. Code is available at https://github.com/sunnytqin/concept_comp.git.

With the success of pretraining techniques in representation learning, a number of continual learning methods based on pretrained models have been proposed. Some of these methods design continual learning mechanisms on the pre-trained representations and only allow minimum updates or even no updates of the backbone models during the training of continual learning. In this paper, we question whether the complexity of these models is needed to achieve good performance by comparing them to a simple baseline that we designed. We argue that the pretrained feature extractor itself can be strong enough to achieve a competitive or even better continual learning performance on Split-CIFAR100 and CoRe 50 benchmarks. To validate this, we conduct a very simple baseline that 1) use the frozen pretrained model to extract image features for every class encountered during the continual learning stage and compute their corresponding mean features on training data, and 2) predict the class of the input based on the nearest neighbor distance between test samples and mean features of the classes; i.e., Nearest Mean Classifier (NMC). This baseline is single-headed, exemplar-free, and can be task-free (by updating the means continually). This baseline achieved 88.53% on 10-Split-CIFAR-100, surpassing most state-of-the-art continual learning methods that are all initialized using the same pretrained transformer model. We hope our baseline may encourage future progress in designing learning systems that can continually add quality to the learning representations even if they started from some pretrained weights.

We introduce \`A-la-carte Prompt Tuning (APT), a transformer-based scheme to tune prompts on distinct data so that they can be arbitrarily composed at inference time. The individual prompts can be trained in isolation, possibly on different devices, at different times, and on different distributions or domains. Furthermore each prompt only contains information about the subset of data it was exposed to during training. During inference, models can be assembled based on arbitrary selections of data sources, which we call "\`a-la-carte learning". \`A-la-carte learning enables constructing bespoke models specific to each user's individual access rights and preferences. We can add or remove information from the model by simply adding or removing the corresponding prompts without retraining from scratch. We demonstrate that \`a-la-carte built models achieve accuracy within 5% of models trained on the union of the respective sources, with comparable cost in terms of training and inference time. For the continual learning benchmarks Split CIFAR-100 and CORe50, we achieve state-of-the-art performance.

One major obstacle towards AI is the poor ability of models to solve new problems quicker, and without forgetting previously acquired knowledge. To better understand this issue, we study the problem of continual learning, where the model observes, once and one by one, examples concerning a sequence of tasks. First, we propose a set of metrics to evaluate models learning over a continuum of data. These metrics characterize models not only by their test accuracy, but also in terms of their ability to transfer knowledge across tasks. Second, we propose a model for continual learning, called Gradient Episodic Memory (GEM) that alleviates forgetting, while allowing beneficial transfer of knowledge to previous tasks. Our experiments on variants of the MNIST and CIFAR-100 datasets demonstrate the strong performance of GEM when compared to the state-of-the-art.

Program synthesis is challenging largely because of the difficulty of search in a large space of programs. Human programmers routinely tackle the task of writing complex programs by writing sub-programs and then analyzing their intermediate results to compose them in appropriate ways. Motivated by this intuition, we present a new synthesis approach that leverages learning to guide a bottom-up search over programs. In particular, we train a model to prioritize compositions of intermediate values during search conditioned on a given set of input-output examples. This is a powerful combination because of several emergent properties. First, in bottom-up search, intermediate programs can be executed, providing semantic information to the neural network. Second, given the concrete values from those executions, we can exploit rich features based on recent work on property signatures. Finally, bottom-up search allows the system substantial flexibility in what order to generate the solution, allowing the synthesizer to build up a program from multiple smaller sub-programs. Overall, our empirical evaluation finds that the combination of learning and bottom-up search is remarkably effective, even with simple supervised learning approaches. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique on two datasets, one from the SyGuS competition and one of our own creation.

Certain statistical models are capable of interpreting input strings as instructions, or prompts, and carry out tasks based on them. Many approaches to prompting and pre-training these models involve the automated generation of these prompts. We call these approaches meta-prompting, or prompting to obtain prompts. We propose a theoretical framework based on category theory to generalize and describe them. This framework is flexible enough to account for LLM stochasticity; and allows us to obtain formal results around task agnosticity and equivalence of various meta-prompting approaches. We experiment with meta-prompting in two active areas of model research: creativity and ideation. We find that user preference favors (p < 0.01) the prompts generated under meta-prompting, as well as their corresponding outputs, over a series of hardcoded baseline prompts that include the original task prompt. Using our framework, we argue that meta-prompting is more effective than basic prompting at generating desirable outputs.

Inspired by recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) for Natural Language Processing (NLP), there has been a surge in research focused on developing foundational models for time series forecasting. One approach involves training LLM architectures on tokenized time series data using cross-entropy loss. Although this method has demonstrated promising results, cross-entropy loss is primarily designed for classification tasks and does not account for the distance between classes. To address this limitation, we propose using the Wasserstein loss for such architectures. To validate our approach, we fine-tuned a foundational time series model on 22 zero-shot datasets, comparing the performance of cross-entropy loss with that of Wasserstein loss. Our results demonstrate that replacing cross-entropy loss with Wasserstein loss significantly improves point estimation.

Recent Continual Learning (CL) methods have combined pretrained Transformers with prompt tuning, a parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) technique. We argue that the choice of prompt tuning in prior works was an undefended and unablated decision, which has been uncritically adopted by subsequent research, but warrants further research to understand its implications. In this paper, we conduct this research and find that the choice of prompt tuning as a PEFT method hurts the overall performance of the CL system. To illustrate this, we replace prompt tuning with LoRA in two state-of-the-art continual learning methods: Learning to Prompt and S-Prompts. These variants consistently achieve higher accuracy across a wide range of domain-incremental and class-incremental benchmarks, while being competitive in inference speed. Our work highlights a crucial argument: unexamined choices can hinder progress in the field, and rigorous ablations, such as the PEFT method, are required to drive meaningful adoption of CL techniques in real-world applications.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM (S^2IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, S^2IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed S^2IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

A large body of research in continual learning is devoted to overcoming the catastrophic forgetting of neural networks by designing new algorithms that are robust to the distribution shifts. However, the majority of these works are strictly focused on the "algorithmic" part of continual learning for a "fixed neural network architecture", and the implications of using different architectures are mostly neglected. Even the few existing continual learning methods that modify the model assume a fixed architecture and aim to develop an algorithm that efficiently uses the model throughout the learning experience. However, in this work, we show that the choice of architecture can significantly impact the continual learning performance, and different architectures lead to different trade-offs between the ability to remember previous tasks and learning new ones. Moreover, we study the impact of various architectural decisions, and our findings entail best practices and recommendations that can improve the continual learning performance.

Self-supervised representation learning~(SSRL) has advanced considerably by exploiting the transformation invariance assumption under artificially designed data augmentations. While augmentation-based SSRL algorithms push the boundaries of performance in computer vision and natural language processing, they are often not directly applicable to other data modalities, and can conflict with application-specific data augmentation constraints. This paper presents an SSRL approach that can be applied to any data modality and network architecture because it does not rely on augmentations or masking. Specifically, we show that high-quality data representations can be learned by reconstructing random data projections. We evaluate the proposed approach on a wide range of representation learning tasks that span diverse modalities and real-world applications. We show that it outperforms multiple state-of-the-art SSRL baselines. Due to its wide applicability and strong empirical results, we argue that learning from randomness is a fruitful research direction worthy of attention and further study.

The behavior of neural networks still remains opaque, and a recently widely noted phenomenon is that networks often achieve similar performance when initialized with different random parameters. This phenomenon has attracted significant attention in measuring the similarity between features learned by distinct networks. However, feature similarity could be vague in describing the same feature since equivalent features hardly exist. In this paper, we expand the concept of equivalent feature and provide the definition of what we call functionally equivalent features. These features produce equivalent output under certain transformations. Using this definition, we aim to derive a more intrinsic metric for the so-called feature complexity regarding the redundancy of features learned by a neural network at each layer. We offer a formal interpretation of our approach through the lens of category theory, a well-developed area in mathematics. To quantify the feature complexity, we further propose an efficient algorithm named Iterative Feature Merging. Our experimental results validate our ideas and theories from various perspectives. We empirically demonstrate that the functionally equivalence widely exists among different features learned by the same neural network and we could reduce the number of parameters of the network without affecting the performance.The IFM shows great potential as a data-agnostic model prune method. We have also drawn several interesting empirical findings regarding the defined feature complexity.

Tabular datasets are ubiquitous in data science applications. Given their importance, it seems natural to apply state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms in order to fully unlock their potential. Here we propose neural network models that represent tabular time series that can optionally leverage their hierarchical structure. This results in two architectures for tabular time series: one for learning representations that is analogous to BERT and can be pre-trained end-to-end and used in downstream tasks, and one that is akin to GPT and can be used for generation of realistic synthetic tabular sequences. We demonstrate our models on two datasets: a synthetic credit card transaction dataset, where the learned representations are used for fraud detection and synthetic data generation, and on a real pollution dataset, where the learned encodings are used to predict atmospheric pollutant concentrations. Code and data are available at https://github.com/IBM/TabFormer.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and specifically a variant with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are enjoying renewed interest as a result of successful applications in a wide range of machine learning problems that involve sequential data. However, while LSTMs provide exceptional results in practice, the source of their performance and their limitations remain rather poorly understood. Using character-level language models as an interpretable testbed, we aim to bridge this gap by providing an analysis of their representations, predictions and error types. In particular, our experiments reveal the existence of interpretable cells that keep track of long-range dependencies such as line lengths, quotes and brackets. Moreover, our comparative analysis with finite horizon n-gram models traces the source of the LSTM improvements to long-range structural dependencies. Finally, we provide analysis of the remaining errors and suggests areas for further study.

Machine learning potentials (MLPs) trained on accurate quantum chemical data can retain the high accuracy, while inflicting little computational demands. On the downside, they need to be trained for each individual system. In recent years, a vast number of MLPs has been trained from scratch because learning additional data typically requires to train again on all data to not forget previously acquired knowledge. Additionally, most common structural descriptors of MLPs cannot represent efficiently a large number of different chemical elements. In this work, we tackle these problems by introducing element-embracing atom-centered symmetry functions (eeACSFs) which combine structural properties and element information from the periodic table. These eeACSFs are a key for our development of a lifelong machine learning potential (lMLP). Uncertainty quantification can be exploited to transgress a fixed, pre-trained MLP to arrive at a continuously adapting lMLP, because a predefined level of accuracy can be ensured. To extend the applicability of an lMLP to new systems, we apply continual learning strategies to enable autonomous and on-the-fly training on a continuous stream of new data. For the training of deep neural networks, we propose the continual resilient (CoRe) optimizer and incremental learning strategies relying on rehearsal of data, regularization of parameters, and the architecture of the model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased impressive performance. However, due to their inability to capture relationships among samples, these frozen LLMs inevitably keep repeating similar mistakes. In this work, we propose our Tuning-free Rule Accumulation (TRAN) framework, which guides LLMs in improving their performance by learning from previous mistakes. Considering data arrives sequentially, LLMs gradually accumulate rules from incorrect cases, forming a rule collection. These rules are then utilized by the LLMs to avoid making similar mistakes when processing subsequent inputs. Moreover, the rules remain independent of the primary prompts, seamlessly complementing prompt design strategies. Experimentally, we show that TRAN improves over recent baselines by a large margin.

The amount of content on online music streaming platforms is immense, and most users only access a tiny fraction of this content. Recommender systems are the application of choice to open up the collection to these users. Collaborative filtering has the disadvantage that it relies on explicit ratings, which are often unavailable, and generally disregards the temporal nature of music consumption. On the other hand, item co-occurrence algorithms, such as the recently introduced word2vec-based recommenders, are typically left without an effective user representation. In this paper, we present a new approach to model users through recurrent neural networks by sequentially processing consumed items, represented by any type of embeddings and other context features. This way we obtain semantically rich user representations, which capture a user's musical taste over time. Our experimental analysis on large-scale user data shows that our model can be used to predict future songs a user will likely listen to, both in the short and long term.

Our ability to continuously acquire, organize, and leverage knowledge is a key feature of human intelligence that AI systems must approximate to unlock their full potential. Given the challenges in continual learning with large language models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has become the dominant way to introduce new information. However, its reliance on vector retrieval hinders its ability to mimic the dynamic and interconnected nature of human long-term memory. Recent RAG approaches augment vector embeddings with various structures like knowledge graphs to address some of these gaps, namely sense-making and associativity. However, their performance on more basic factual memory tasks drops considerably below standard RAG. We address this unintended deterioration and propose HippoRAG 2, a framework that outperforms standard RAG comprehensively on factual, sense-making, and associative memory tasks. HippoRAG 2 builds upon the Personalized PageRank algorithm used in HippoRAG and enhances it with deeper passage integration and more effective online use of an LLM. This combination pushes this RAG system closer to the effectiveness of human long-term memory, achieving a 7% improvement in associative memory tasks over the state-of-the-art embedding model while also exhibiting superior factual knowledge and sense-making memory capabilities. This work paves the way for non-parametric continual learning for LLMs. Our code and data will be released at https://github.com/OSU-NLP-Group/HippoRAG.

Pre-trained large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive mathematical reasoning capabilities, yet how they compute basic arithmetic, such as addition, remains unclear. This paper shows that pre-trained LLMs add numbers using Fourier features -- dimensions in the hidden state that represent numbers via a set of features sparse in the frequency domain. Within the model, MLP and attention layers use Fourier features in complementary ways: MLP layers primarily approximate the magnitude of the answer using low-frequency features, while attention layers primarily perform modular addition (e.g., computing whether the answer is even or odd) using high-frequency features. Pre-training is crucial for this mechanism: models trained from scratch to add numbers only exploit low-frequency features, leading to lower accuracy. Introducing pre-trained token embeddings to a randomly initialized model rescues its performance. Overall, our analysis demonstrates that appropriate pre-trained representations (e.g., Fourier features) can unlock the ability of Transformers to learn precise mechanisms for algorithmic tasks.

Recurrent large language models that compete with Transformers in language modeling perplexity are emerging at a rapid rate (e.g., Mamba, RWKV). Excitingly, these architectures use a constant amount of memory during inference. However, due to the limited memory, recurrent LMs cannot recall and use all the information in long contexts leading to brittle in-context learning (ICL) quality. A key challenge for efficient LMs is selecting what information to store versus discard. In this work, we observe the order in which information is shown to the LM impacts the selection difficulty. To formalize this, we show that the hardness of information recall reduces to the hardness of a problem called set disjointness (SD), a quintessential problem in communication complexity that requires a streaming algorithm (e.g., recurrent model) to decide whether inputted sets are disjoint. We empirically and theoretically show that the recurrent memory required to solve SD changes with set order, i.e., whether the smaller set appears first in-context. Our analysis suggests, to mitigate the reliance on data order, we can put information in the right order in-context or process prompts non-causally. Towards that end, we propose: (1) JRT-Prompt, where context gets repeated multiple times in the prompt, effectively showing the model all data orders. This gives 11.0 pm 1.3 points of improvement, averaged across 16 recurrent LMs and the 6 ICL tasks, with 11.9times higher throughput than FlashAttention-2 for generation prefill (length 32k, batch size 16, NVidia H100). We then propose (2) JRT-RNN, which uses non-causal prefix-linear-attention to process prompts and provides 99% of Transformer quality at 360M params., 30B tokens and 96% at 1.3B params., 50B tokens on average across the tasks, with 19.2times higher throughput for prefill than FA2.

Recent works have argued that high-level semantic concepts are encoded "linearly" in the representation space of large language models. In this work, we study the origins of such linear representations. To that end, we introduce a simple latent variable model to abstract and formalize the concept dynamics of the next token prediction. We use this formalism to show that the next token prediction objective (softmax with cross-entropy) and the implicit bias of gradient descent together promote the linear representation of concepts. Experiments show that linear representations emerge when learning from data matching the latent variable model, confirming that this simple structure already suffices to yield linear representations. We additionally confirm some predictions of the theory using the LLaMA-2 large language model, giving evidence that the simplified model yields generalizable insights.

This paper considers the learning of logical (Boolean) functions with focus on the generalization on the unseen (GOTU) setting, a strong case of out-of-distribution generalization. This is motivated by the fact that the rich combinatorial nature of data in certain reasoning tasks (e.g., arithmetic/logic) makes representative data sampling challenging, and learning successfully under GOTU gives a first vignette of an 'extrapolating' or 'reasoning' learner. We then study how different network architectures trained by (S)GD perform under GOTU and provide both theoretical and experimental evidence that for a class of network models including instances of Transformers, random features models, and diagonal linear networks, a min-degree-interpolator (MDI) is learned on the unseen. We also provide evidence that other instances with larger learning rates or mean-field networks reach leaky MDIs. These findings lead to two implications: (1) we provide an explanation to the length generalization problem (e.g., Anil et al. 2022); (2) we introduce a curriculum learning algorithm called Degree-Curriculum that learns monomials more efficiently by incrementing supports.

Large language models display remarkable capabilities in logical and mathematical reasoning, allowing them to solve complex tasks. Interestingly, these abilities emerge in networks trained on the simple task of next-token prediction. In this work, we present a theoretical framework for studying auto-regressive next-token predictors. We demonstrate that even simple models such as linear next-token predictors, trained on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data, can approximate any function efficiently computed by a Turing machine. We introduce a new complexity measure -- length complexity -- which measures the number of intermediate tokens in a CoT sequence required to approximate some target function, and analyze the interplay between length complexity and other notions of complexity. Finally, we show experimentally that simple next-token predictors, such as linear networks and shallow Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), display non-trivial performance on text generation and arithmetic tasks. Our results demonstrate that the power of language models can be attributed, to a great extent, to the auto-regressive next-token training scheme, and not necessarily to a particular choice of architecture.

Questions of fair use of copyright-protected content to train Large Language Models (LLMs) are being very actively debated. Document-level inference has been proposed as a new task: inferring from black-box access to the trained model whether a piece of content has been seen during training. SOTA methods however rely on naturally occurring memorization of (part of) the content. While very effective against models that memorize a lot, we hypothesize--and later confirm--that they will not work against models that do not naturally memorize, e.g. medium-size 1B models. We here propose to use copyright traps, the inclusion of fictitious entries in original content, to detect the use of copyrighted materials in LLMs with a focus on models where memorization does not naturally occur. We carefully design an experimental setup, randomly inserting traps into original content (books) and train a 1.3B LLM. We first validate that the use of content in our target model would be undetectable using existing methods. We then show, contrary to intuition, that even medium-length trap sentences repeated a significant number of times (100) are not detectable using existing methods. However, we show that longer sequences repeated a large number of times can be reliably detected (AUC=0.75) and used as copyright traps. We further improve these results by studying how the number of times a sequence is seen improves detectability, how sequences with higher perplexity tend to be memorized more, and how taking context into account further improves detectability.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

Humans can understand and produce new utterances effortlessly, thanks to their compositional skills. Once a person learns the meaning of a new verb "dax," he or she can immediately understand the meaning of "dax twice" or "sing and dax." In this paper, we introduce the SCAN domain, consisting of a set of simple compositional navigation commands paired with the corresponding action sequences. We then test the zero-shot generalization capabilities of a variety of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained on SCAN with sequence-to-sequence methods. We find that RNNs can make successful zero-shot generalizations when the differences between training and test commands are small, so that they can apply "mix-and-match" strategies to solve the task. However, when generalization requires systematic compositional skills (as in the "dax" example above), RNNs fail spectacularly. We conclude with a proof-of-concept experiment in neural machine translation, suggesting that lack of systematicity might be partially responsible for neural networks' notorious training data thirst.

Recent research on time-series self-supervised models shows great promise in learning semantic representations. However, it has been limited to small-scale datasets, e.g., thousands of temporal sequences. In this work, we make key technical contributions that are tailored to the numerical properties of time-series data and allow the model to scale to large datasets, e.g., millions of temporal sequences. We adopt the Transformer architecture by first partitioning the input into non-overlapping windows. Each window is then characterized by its normalized shape and two scalar values denoting the mean and standard deviation within each window. To embed scalar values that may possess arbitrary numerical scales to high-dimensional vectors, we propose a numerically multi-scaled embedding module enumerating all possible scales for the scalar values. The model undergoes pretraining using the proposed numerically multi-scaled embedding with a simple contrastive objective on a large-scale dataset containing over a million sequences. We study its transfer performance on a number of univariate and multivariate classification benchmarks. Our method exhibits remarkable improvement against previous representation learning approaches and establishes the new state of the art, even compared with domain-specific non-learning-based methods.

The field of general time series analysis has recently begun to explore unified modeling, where a common architectural backbone can be retrained on a specific task for a specific dataset. In this work, we approach unification from a complementary vantage point: unification across tasks and domains. To this end, we explore the impact of discrete, learnt, time series data representations that enable generalist, cross-domain training. Our method, TOTEM, or TOkenized Time Series EMbeddings, proposes a simple tokenizer architecture that embeds time series data from varying domains using a discrete vectorized representation learned in a self-supervised manner. TOTEM works across multiple tasks and domains with minimal to no tuning. We study the efficacy of TOTEM with an extensive evaluation on 17 real world time series datasets across 3 tasks. We evaluate both the specialist (i.e., training a model on each domain) and generalist (i.e., training a single model on many domains) settings, and show that TOTEM matches or outperforms previous best methods on several popular benchmarks. The code can be found at: https://github.com/SaberaTalukder/TOTEM.

Semantic word embeddings represent the meaning of a word via a vector, and are created by diverse methods. Many use nonlinear operations on co-occurrence statistics, and have hand-tuned hyperparameters and reweighting methods. This paper proposes a new generative model, a dynamic version of the log-linear topic model of~mnih2007three. The methodological novelty is to use the prior to compute closed form expressions for word statistics. This provides a theoretical justification for nonlinear models like PMI, word2vec, and GloVe, as well as some hyperparameter choices. It also helps explain why low-dimensional semantic embeddings contain linear algebraic structure that allows solution of word analogies, as shown by~mikolov2013efficient and many subsequent papers. Experimental support is provided for the generative model assumptions, the most important of which is that latent word vectors are fairly uniformly dispersed in space.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

This paper introduces a continual learning approach named MagMax, which utilizes model merging to enable large pre-trained models to continuously learn from new data without forgetting previously acquired knowledge. Distinct from traditional continual learning methods that aim to reduce forgetting during task training, MagMax combines sequential fine-tuning with a maximum magnitude weight selection for effective knowledge integration across tasks. Our initial contribution is an extensive examination of model merging techniques, revealing that simple approaches like weight averaging and random weight selection surprisingly hold up well in various continual learning contexts. More importantly, we present MagMax, a novel model-merging strategy that enables continual learning of large pre-trained models for successive tasks. Our thorough evaluation demonstrates the superiority of MagMax in various scenarios, including class- and domain-incremental learning settings.

This study investigates self-supervised learning techniques to obtain representations of Event Sequences. It is a key modality in various applications, including but not limited to banking, e-commerce, and healthcare. We perform a comprehensive study of generative and contrastive approaches in self-supervised learning, applying them both independently. We find that there is no single supreme method. Consequently, we explore the potential benefits of combining these approaches. To achieve this goal, we introduce a novel method that aligns generative and contrastive embeddings as distinct modalities, drawing inspiration from contemporary multimodal research. Generative and contrastive approaches are often treated as mutually exclusive, leaving a gap for their combined exploration. Our results demonstrate that this aligned model performs at least on par with, and mostly surpasses, existing methods and is more universal across a variety of tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-supervised methods consistently outperform the supervised approach on our datasets.

We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.

Recently, continual learning (CL) has gained significant interest because it enables deep learning models to acquire new knowledge without forgetting previously learnt information. However, most existing works require knowing the task identities and boundaries, which is not realistic in a real context. In this paper, we address a more challenging and realistic setting in CL, namely the Task-Free Continual Learning (TFCL) in which a model is trained on non-stationary data streams with no explicit task information. To address TFCL, we introduce an evolved mixture model whose network architecture is dynamically expanded to adapt to the data distribution shift. We implement this expansion mechanism by evaluating the probability distance between the knowledge stored in each mixture model component and the current memory buffer using the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). We further introduce two simple dropout mechanisms to selectively remove stored examples in order to avoid memory overload while preserving memory diversity. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves excellent performance.

The goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees for generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.