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SubscribeAn AI-driven Malfunction Detection Concept for NFV Instances in 5G
Efficient network management is one of the key challenges of the constantly growing and increasingly complex wide area networks (WAN). The paradigm shift towards virtualized (NFV) and software defined networks (SDN) in the next generation of mobile networks (5G), as well as the latest scientific insights in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) enable the transition from manually managed networks nowadays to fully autonomic and dynamic self-organized networks (SON). This helps to meet the KPIs and reduce at the same time operational costs (OPEX). In this paper, an AI driven concept is presented for the malfunction detection in NFV applications with the help of semi-supervised learning. For this purpose, a profile of the application under test is created. This profile then is used as a reference to detect abnormal behaviour. For example, if there is a bug in the updated version of the app, it is now possible to react autonomously and roll-back the NFV app to a previous version in order to avoid network outages.
URAG: Implementing a Unified Hybrid RAG for Precise Answers in University Admission Chatbots -- A Case Study at HCMUT
With the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence, particularly in Natural Language Processing, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become pivotal in educational question-answering systems, especially university admission chatbots. Concepts such as Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and other advanced techniques have been developed to enhance these systems by integrating specific university data, enabling LLMs to provide informed responses on admissions and academic counseling. However, these enhanced RAG techniques often involve high operational costs and require the training of complex, specialized modules, which poses challenges for practical deployment. Additionally, in the educational context, it is crucial to provide accurate answers to prevent misinformation, a task that LLM-based systems find challenging without appropriate strategies and methods. In this paper, we introduce the Unified RAG (URAG) Framework, a hybrid approach that significantly improves the accuracy of responses, particularly for critical queries. Experimental results demonstrate that URAG enhances our in-house, lightweight model to perform comparably to state-of-the-art commercial models. Moreover, to validate its practical applicability, we conducted a case study at our educational institution, which received positive feedback and acclaim. This study not only proves the effectiveness of URAG but also highlights its feasibility for real-world implementation in educational settings.
A Transformer-Based Approach for Smart Invocation of Automatic Code Completion
Transformer-based language models are highly effective for code completion, with much research dedicated to enhancing the content of these completions. Despite their effectiveness, these models come with high operational costs and can be intrusive, especially when they suggest too often and interrupt developers who are concentrating on their work. Current research largely overlooks how these models interact with developers in practice and neglects to address when a developer should receive completion suggestions. To tackle this issue, we developed a machine learning model that can accurately predict when to invoke a code completion tool given the code context and available telemetry data. To do so, we collect a dataset of 200k developer interactions with our cross-IDE code completion plugin and train several invocation filtering models. Our results indicate that our small-scale transformer model significantly outperforms the baseline while maintaining low enough latency. We further explore the search space for integrating additional telemetry data into a pre-trained transformer directly and obtain promising results. To further demonstrate our approach's practical potential, we deployed the model in an online environment with 34 developers and provided real-world insights based on 74k actual invocations.
Arctic-TILT. Business Document Understanding at Sub-Billion Scale
The vast portion of workloads employing LLMs involves answering questions grounded on PDF or scan content. We introduce the Arctic-TILT achieving accuracy on par with models 1000times its size on these use cases. It can be fine-tuned and deployed on a single 24GB GPU, lowering operational costs while processing Visually Rich Documents with up to 400k tokens. The model establishes state-of-the-art results on seven diverse Document Understanding benchmarks, as well as provides reliable confidence scores and quick inference, which are essential for processing files in large-scale or time-sensitive enterprise environments.
Tending Towards Stability: Convergence Challenges in Small Language Models
Increasing the number of parameters in language models is a common strategy to enhance their performance. However, smaller language models remain valuable due to their lower operational costs. Despite their advantages, smaller models frequently underperform compared to their larger counterparts, even when provided with equivalent data and computational resources. Specifically, their performance tends to degrade in the late pretraining phase. This is anecdotally attributed to their reduced representational capacity. Yet, the exact causes of this performance degradation remain unclear. We use the Pythia model suite to analyse the training dynamics that underlie this phenomenon. Across different model sizes, we investigate the convergence of the Attention and MLP activations to their final state and examine how the effective rank of their parameters influences this process. We find that nearly all layers in larger models stabilise early in training - within the first 20% - whereas layers in smaller models exhibit slower and less stable convergence, especially when their parameters have lower effective rank. By linking the convergence of layers' activations to their parameters' effective rank, our analyses can guide future work to address inefficiencies in the learning dynamics of small models.
Semantically Controllable Augmentations for Generalizable Robot Learning
Generalization to unseen real-world scenarios for robot manipulation requires exposure to diverse datasets during training. However, collecting large real-world datasets is intractable due to high operational costs. For robot learning to generalize despite these challenges, it is essential to leverage sources of data or priors beyond the robot's direct experience. In this work, we posit that image-text generative models, which are pre-trained on large corpora of web-scraped data, can serve as such a data source. These generative models encompass a broad range of real-world scenarios beyond a robot's direct experience and can synthesize novel synthetic experiences that expose robotic agents to additional world priors aiding real-world generalization at no extra cost. In particular, our approach leverages pre-trained generative models as an effective tool for data augmentation. We propose a generative augmentation framework for semantically controllable augmentations and rapidly multiplying robot datasets while inducing rich variations that enable real-world generalization. Based on diverse augmentations of robot data, we show how scalable robot manipulation policies can be trained and deployed both in simulation and in unseen real-world environments such as kitchens and table-tops. By demonstrating the effectiveness of image-text generative models in diverse real-world robotic applications, our generative augmentation framework provides a scalable and efficient path for boosting generalization in robot learning at no extra human cost.
EHRFL: Federated Learning Framework for Heterogeneous EHRs and Precision-guided Selection of Participating Clients
In this study, we provide solutions to two practical yet overlooked scenarios in federated learning for electronic health records (EHRs): firstly, we introduce EHRFL, a framework that facilitates federated learning across healthcare institutions with distinct medical coding systems and database schemas using text-based linearization of EHRs. Secondly, we focus on a scenario where a single healthcare institution initiates federated learning to build a model tailored for itself, in which the number of clients must be optimized in order to reduce expenses incurred by the host. For selecting participating clients, we present a novel precision-based method, leveraging data latents to identify suitable participants for the institution. Our empirical results show that EHRFL effectively enables federated learning across hospitals with different EHR systems. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the efficacy of our precision-based method in selecting reduced number of participating clients without compromising model performance, resulting in lower operational costs when constructing institution-specific models. We believe this work lays a foundation for the broader adoption of federated learning on EHRs.
Autonomous Deep Agent
This technical brief introduces Deep Agent, an advanced autonomous AI system designed to manage complex multi-phase tasks through a novel hierarchical task management architecture. The system's foundation is built on our Hierarchical Task DAG (HTDAG) framework, which dynamically decomposes high-level objectives into manageable sub-tasks while rigorously maintaining dependencies and execution coherence. Deep Agent advances beyond traditional agent systems through three key innovations: First, it implements a recursive two-stage planner-executor architecture that enables continuous task refinement and adaptation as circumstances change. Second, it features an Autonomous API & Tool Creation (AATC) system that automatically generates reusable components from UI interactions, substantially reducing operational costs for similar tasks. Third, it incorporates Prompt Tweaking Engine and Autonomous Prompt Feedback Learning components that optimize Large Language Model prompts for specific scenarios, enhancing both inference accuracy and operational stability. These components are integrated to form a service infrastructure that manages user contexts, handles complex task dependencies, and orchestrates end-to-end agentic workflow execution. Through this sophisticated architecture, Deep Agent establishes a novel paradigm in self-governing AI systems, demonstrating robust capability to independently handle intricate, multi-step tasks while maintaining consistent efficiency and reliability through continuous self-optimization.
Making LLMs Worth Every Penny: Resource-Limited Text Classification in Banking
Standard Full-Data classifiers in NLP demand thousands of labeled examples, which is impractical in data-limited domains. Few-shot methods offer an alternative, utilizing contrastive learning techniques that can be effective with as little as 20 examples per class. Similarly, Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 can perform effectively with just 1-5 examples per class. However, the performance-cost trade-offs of these methods remain underexplored, a critical concern for budget-limited organizations. Our work addresses this gap by studying the aforementioned approaches over the Banking77 financial intent detection dataset, including the evaluation of cutting-edge LLMs by OpenAI, Cohere, and Anthropic in a comprehensive set of few-shot scenarios. We complete the picture with two additional methods: first, a cost-effective querying method for LLMs based on retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), able to reduce operational costs multiple times compared to classic few-shot approaches, and second, a data augmentation method using GPT-4, able to improve performance in data-limited scenarios. Finally, to inspire future research, we provide a human expert's curated subset of Banking77, along with extensive error analysis.
Quadratic Time-Frequency Analysis of Vibration Signals for Diagnosing Bearing Faults
Diagnosis of bearing faults is paramount to reducing maintenance costs and operational breakdowns. Bearing faults are primary contributors to machine vibrations, and analyzing their signal morphology offers insights into their health status. Unfortunately, existing approaches are optimized for controlled environments, neglecting realistic conditions such as time-varying rotational speeds and the vibration's non-stationary nature. This paper presents a fusion of time-frequency analysis and deep learning techniques to diagnose bearing faults under time-varying speeds and varying noise levels. First, we formulate the bearing fault-induced vibrations and discuss the link between their non-stationarity and the bearing's inherent and operational parameters. We also elucidate quadratic time-frequency distributions and validate their effectiveness in resolving distinctive dynamic patterns associated with different bearing faults. Based on this, we design a time-frequency convolutional neural network (TF-CNN) to diagnose various faults in rolling-element bearings. Our experimental findings undeniably demonstrate the superior performance of TF-CNN in comparison to recently developed techniques. They also assert its versatility in capturing fault-relevant non-stationary features that couple with speed changes and show its exceptional resilience to noise, consistently surpassing competing methods across various signal-to-noise ratios and performance metrics. Altogether, the TF-CNN achieves substantial accuracy improvements up to 15%, in severe noise conditions.
Explore, Select, Derive, and Recall: Augmenting LLM with Human-like Memory for Mobile Task Automation
The advent of large language models (LLMs) has opened up new opportunities in the field of mobile task automation. Their superior language understanding and reasoning capabilities allow users to automate complex and repetitive tasks. However, due to the inherent unreliability and high operational cost of LLMs, their practical applicability is quite limited. To address these issues, this paper introduces MobileGPT, an innovative LLM-based mobile task automator equipped with a human-like app memory. MobileGPT emulates the cognitive process of humans interacting with a mobile app -- explore, select, derive, and recall. This approach allows for a more precise and efficient learning of a task's procedure by breaking it down into smaller, modular sub-tasks that can be re-used, re-arranged, and adapted for various objectives. We implement MobileGPT using online LLMs services (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) and evaluate its performance on a dataset of 185 tasks across 18 mobile apps. The results indicate that MobileGPT can automate and learn new tasks with 82.7% accuracy, and is able to adapt them to different contexts with near perfect (98.75%) accuracy while reducing both latency and cost by 62.5% and 68.8%, respectively, compared to the GPT-4 powered baseline.
Neural Optimal Transport with General Cost Functionals
We introduce a novel neural network-based algorithm to compute optimal transport (OT) plans for general cost functionals. In contrast to common Euclidean costs, i.e., ell^1 or ell^2, such functionals provide more flexibility and allow using auxiliary information, such as class labels, to construct the required transport map. Existing methods for general costs are discrete and have limitations in practice, i.e. they do not provide an out-of-sample estimation. We address the challenge of designing a continuous OT approach for general costs that generalizes to new data points in high-dimensional spaces, such as images. Additionally, we provide the theoretical error analysis for our recovered transport plans. As an application, we construct a cost functional to map data distributions while preserving the class-wise structure.
The rising costs of training frontier AI models
The costs of training frontier AI models have grown dramatically in recent years, but there is limited public data on the magnitude and growth of these expenses. This paper develops a detailed cost model to address this gap, estimating training costs using three approaches that account for hardware, energy, cloud rental, and staff expenses. The analysis reveals that the amortized cost to train the most compute-intensive models has grown precipitously at a rate of 2.4x per year since 2016 (95% CI: 2.0x to 3.1x). For key frontier models, such as GPT-4 and Gemini, the most significant expenses are AI accelerator chips and staff costs, each costing tens of millions of dollars. Other notable costs include server components (15-22%), cluster-level interconnect (9-13%), and energy consumption (2-6%). If the trend of growing development costs continues, the largest training runs will cost more than a billion dollars by 2027, meaning that only the most well-funded organizations will be able to finance frontier AI models.
SkipPredict: When to Invest in Predictions for Scheduling
In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.
KOALA: Self-Attention Matters in Knowledge Distillation of Latent Diffusion Models for Memory-Efficient and Fast Image Synthesis
Stable diffusion is the mainstay of the text-to-image (T2I) synthesis in the community due to its generation performance and open-source nature. Recently, Stable Diffusion XL (SDXL), the successor of stable diffusion, has received a lot of attention due to its significant performance improvements with a higher resolution of 1024x1024 and a larger model. However, its increased computation cost and model size require higher-end hardware(e.g., bigger VRAM GPU) for end-users, incurring higher costs of operation. To address this problem, in this work, we propose an efficient latent diffusion model for text-to-image synthesis obtained by distilling the knowledge of SDXL. To this end, we first perform an in-depth analysis of the denoising U-Net in SDXL, which is the main bottleneck of the model, and then design a more efficient U-Net based on the analysis. Secondly, we explore how to effectively distill the generation capability of SDXL into an efficient U-Net and eventually identify four essential factors, the core of which is that self-attention is the most important part. With our efficient U-Net and self-attention-based knowledge distillation strategy, we build our efficient T2I models, called KOALA-1B & -700M, while reducing the model size up to 54% and 69% of the original SDXL model. In particular, the KOALA-700M is more than twice as fast as SDXL while still retaining a decent generation quality. We hope that due to its balanced speed-performance tradeoff, our KOALA models can serve as a cost-effective alternative to SDXL in resource-constrained environments.
Towards Efficient Pre-training: Exploring FP4 Precision in Large Language Models
The burgeoning computational demands for training large language models (LLMs) necessitate efficient methods, including quantized training, which leverages low-bit arithmetic operations to reduce costs. While FP8 precision has shown potential, leveraging FP4 remains challenging due to inherent quantization errors and limited representation capability. Based on the Transformer architecture, we present an FP4 training scheme for LLMs, overcoming these obstacles through mixed-precision quantization strategies tailed for different modules and training stages. This allows us to apply the precision level suitable to distinct components within the model, ensuring that multi-head attention and linear layers are handled appropriately. Our pretraining recipe ensures stability in backpropagation by incorporating fine-grained quantization methods with a target precision training schedule. Experimental results demonstrate that our FP4 training scheme achieves accuracy comparable to BF16 and FP8, with smaller theoretical computational cost. With the advent of next-generation hardware supporting FP4, our method sets the foundation for efficient ultra-low precision training.
Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?
Recent years have seen a surge in the popularity of commercial AI products based on generative, multi-purpose AI systems promising a unified approach to building machine learning (ML) models into technology. However, this ambition of "generality" comes at a steep cost to the environment, given the amount of energy these systems require and the amount of carbon that they emit. In this work, we propose the first systematic comparison of the ongoing inference cost of various categories of ML systems, covering both task-specific (i.e. finetuned models that carry out a single task) and `general-purpose' models, (i.e. those trained for multiple tasks). We measure deployment cost as the amount of energy and carbon required to perform 1,000 inferences on representative benchmark dataset using these models. We find that multi-purpose, generative architectures are orders of magnitude more expensive than task-specific systems for a variety of tasks, even when controlling for the number of model parameters. We conclude with a discussion around the current trend of deploying multi-purpose generative ML systems, and caution that their utility should be more intentionally weighed against increased costs in terms of energy and emissions. All the data from our study can be accessed via an interactive demo to carry out further exploration and analysis.
Flow-of-Options: Diversified and Improved LLM Reasoning by Thinking Through Options
We present a novel reasoning approach called Flow-of-Options (FoO), designed to address intrinsic biases in Large Language Models (LLMs). FoO enables LLMs to systematically explore a diverse range of possibilities in their reasoning, as demonstrated by an FoO-based agentic system for autonomously solving Machine Learning tasks (AutoML). Our framework outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving improvements of 38.2% - 69.2% on standard data science tasks, and 37.4% - 47.9% on therapeutic chemistry tasks. With an overall operation cost under $1 per task, our framework is well-suited for cost-sensitive applications. Beyond classification and regression, we illustrate the broader applicability of our FoO-based agentic system to tasks such as reinforcement learning and image generation. Our framework presents significant advancements compared to current state-of-the-art agentic systems for AutoML, due to the benefits of FoO in enforcing diversity in LLM solutions through compressed, explainable representations that also support long-term memory when combined with case-based reasoning.
ChunkAttention: Efficient Self-Attention with Prefix-Aware KV Cache and Two-Phase Partition
Self-attention is an essential component of large language models(LLMs) but a significant source of inference latency for long sequences. In multi-tenant LLMs serving scenarios, the compute and memory operation cost of self-attention can be optimized by using the probability that multiple LLM requests have shared system prompts in prefixes. In this paper, we introduce ChunkAttention, a prefix-aware self-attention module that can detect matching prompt prefixes across multiple requests and share their key/value tensors in memory at runtime to improve the memory utilization of KV cache. This is achieved by breaking monolithic key/value tensors into smaller chunks and structuring them into the auxiliary prefix tree. Consequently, on top of the prefix-tree based KV cache, we design an efficient self-attention kernel, where a two-phase partition algorithm is implemented to improve the data locality during self-attention computation in the presence of shared system prompts. Experiments show that ChunkAttention can speed up the self-attention kernel by 3.2-4.8times compared to the start-of-the-art implementation, with the length of the system prompt ranging from 1024 to 4096.
Algorithms for Caching and MTS with reduced number of predictions
ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.
Separable Self-attention for Mobile Vision Transformers
Mobile vision transformers (MobileViT) can achieve state-of-the-art performance across several mobile vision tasks, including classification and detection. Though these models have fewer parameters, they have high latency as compared to convolutional neural network-based models. The main efficiency bottleneck in MobileViT is the multi-headed self-attention (MHA) in transformers, which requires O(k^2) time complexity with respect to the number of tokens (or patches) k. Moreover, MHA requires costly operations (e.g., batch-wise matrix multiplication) for computing self-attention, impacting latency on resource-constrained devices. This paper introduces a separable self-attention method with linear complexity, i.e. O(k). A simple yet effective characteristic of the proposed method is that it uses element-wise operations for computing self-attention, making it a good choice for resource-constrained devices. The improved model, MobileViTv2, is state-of-the-art on several mobile vision tasks, including ImageNet object classification and MS-COCO object detection. With about three million parameters, MobileViTv2 achieves a top-1 accuracy of 75.6% on the ImageNet dataset, outperforming MobileViT by about 1% while running 3.2times faster on a mobile device. Our source code is available at: https://github.com/apple/ml-cvnets
Understanding the Impact of Post-Training Quantization on Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly increasing in size, with the number of parameters becoming a key factor in the success of many commercial models, such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Bard. Even the recently released publicly accessible models for commercial usage, such as Falcon and Llama2, come equipped with billions of parameters. This significant increase in the number of parameters makes deployment and operation very costly. The remarkable progress in the field of quantization for large neural networks in general and LLMs in particular, has made these models more accessible by enabling them to be deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Quantized models generally demonstrate comparable performance levels to their unquantized base counterparts. Nonetheless, there exists a notable gap in our comprehensive understanding of how these quantized models respond to hyperparameters, such as temperature, max new tokens, and topk, particularly for next word prediction. The present analysis reveals that nf4 and fp4 are equally proficient 4-bit quantization techniques, characterized by similar attributes such as inference speed, memory consumption, and the quality of generated content. the study identifies nf4 as displaying greater resilience to temperature variations in the case of the llama2 series of models at lower temperature, while fp4 and fp4-dq proves to be a more suitable choice for falcon series of models. It is noteworthy that, in general, 4-bit quantized models of varying sizes exhibit higher sensitivity to temperature in the range of 0.5 to 0.8, unlike their unquantized counterparts. Additionally, int8 quantization is associated with significantly slower inference speeds, whereas unquantized bfloat16 models consistently yield the fastest inference speeds across models of all sizes.
Solving Data Quality Problems with Desbordante: a Demo
Data profiling is an essential process in modern data-driven industries. One of its critical components is the discovery and validation of complex statistics, including functional dependencies, data constraints, association rules, and others. However, most existing data profiling systems that focus on complex statistics do not provide proper integration with the tools used by contemporary data scientists. This creates a significant barrier to the adoption of these tools in the industry. Moreover, existing systems were not created with industrial-grade workloads in mind. Finally, they do not aim to provide descriptive explanations, i.e. why a given pattern is not found. It is a significant issue as it is essential to understand the underlying reasons for a specific pattern's absence to make informed decisions based on the data. Because of that, these patterns are effectively rest in thin air: their application scope is rather limited, they are rarely used by the broader public. At the same time, as we are going to demonstrate in this presentation, complex statistics can be efficiently used to solve many classic data quality problems. Desbordante is an open-source data profiler that aims to close this gap. It is built with emphasis on industrial application: it is efficient, scalable, resilient to crashes, and provides explanations. Furthermore, it provides seamless Python integration by offloading various costly operations to the C++ core, not only mining. In this demonstration, we show several scenarios that allow end users to solve different data quality problems. Namely, we showcase typo detection, data deduplication, and data anomaly detection scenarios.
Local Graph Clustering with Noisy Labels
The growing interest in machine learning problems over graphs with additional node information such as texts, images, or labels has popularized methods that require the costly operation of processing the entire graph. Yet, little effort has been made to the development of fast local methods (i.e. without accessing the entire graph) that extract useful information from such data. To that end, we propose a study of local graph clustering using noisy node labels as a proxy for additional node information. In this setting, nodes receive initial binary labels based on cluster affiliation: 1 if they belong to the target cluster and 0 otherwise. Subsequently, a fraction of these labels is flipped. We investigate the benefits of incorporating noisy labels for local graph clustering. By constructing a weighted graph with such labels, we study the performance of graph diffusion-based local clustering method on both the original and the weighted graphs. From a theoretical perspective, we consider recovering an unknown target cluster with a single seed node in a random graph with independent noisy node labels. We provide sufficient conditions on the label noise under which, with high probability, using diffusion in the weighted graph yields a more accurate recovery of the target cluster. This approach proves more effective than using the given labels alone or using diffusion in the label-free original graph. Empirically, we show that reliable node labels can be obtained with just a few samples from an attributed graph. Moreover, utilizing these labels via diffusion in the weighted graph leads to significantly better local clustering performance across several real-world datasets, improving F1 scores by up to 13%.
Operational Wind Speed Forecasts for Chile's Electric Power Sector Using a Hybrid ML Model
As Chile's electric power sector advances toward a future powered by renewable energy, accurate forecasting of renewable generation is essential for managing grid operations. The integration of renewable energy sources is particularly challenging due to the operational difficulties of managing their power generation, which is highly variable compared to fossil fuel sources, delaying the availability of clean energy. To mitigate this, we quantify the impact of increasing intermittent generation from wind and solar on thermal power plants in Chile and introduce a hybrid wind speed forecasting methodology which combines two custom ML models for Chile. The first model is based on TiDE, an MLP-based ML model for short-term forecasts, and the second is based on a graph neural network, GraphCast, for medium-term forecasts up to 10 days. Our hybrid approach outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems by 4-21% for short-term forecasts and 5-23% for medium-term forecasts and can directly lower the impact of wind generation on thermal ramping, curtailment, and system-level emissions in Chile.
Operational Latent Spaces
We investigate the construction of latent spaces through self-supervised learning to support semantically meaningful operations. Analogous to operational amplifiers, these "operational latent spaces" (OpLaS) not only demonstrate semantic structure such as clustering but also support common transformational operations with inherent semantic meaning. Some operational latent spaces are found to have arisen "unintentionally" in the progress toward some (other) self-supervised learning objective, in which unintended but still useful properties are discovered among the relationships of points in the space. Other spaces may be constructed "intentionally" by developers stipulating certain kinds of clustering or transformations intended to produce the desired structure. We focus on the intentional creation of operational latent spaces via self-supervised learning, including the introduction of rotation operators via a novel "FiLMR" layer, which can be used to enable ring-like symmetries found in some musical constructions.
Machine learning-driven Anomaly Detection and Forecasting for Euclid Space Telescope Operations
State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.
Large language models can consistently generate high-quality content for election disinformation operations
Advances in large language models have raised concerns about their potential use in generating compelling election disinformation at scale. This study presents a two-part investigation into the capabilities of LLMs to automate stages of an election disinformation operation. First, we introduce DisElect, a novel evaluation dataset designed to measure LLM compliance with instructions to generate content for an election disinformation operation in localised UK context, containing 2,200 malicious prompts and 50 benign prompts. Using DisElect, we test 13 LLMs and find that most models broadly comply with these requests; we also find that the few models which refuse malicious prompts also refuse benign election-related prompts, and are more likely to refuse to generate content from a right-wing perspective. Secondly, we conduct a series of experiments (N=2,340) to assess the "humanness" of LLMs: the extent to which disinformation operation content generated by an LLM is able to pass as human-written. Our experiments suggest that almost all LLMs tested released since 2022 produce election disinformation operation content indiscernible by human evaluators over 50% of the time. Notably, we observe that multiple models achieve above-human levels of humanness. Taken together, these findings suggest that current LLMs can be used to generate high-quality content for election disinformation operations, even in hyperlocalised scenarios, at far lower costs than traditional methods, and offer researchers and policymakers an empirical benchmark for the measurement and evaluation of these capabilities in current and future models.
Graph Learning-based Fleet Scheduling for Urban Air Mobility under Operational Constraints, Varying Demand & Uncertainties
This paper develops a graph reinforcement learning approach to online planning of the schedule and destinations of electric aircraft that comprise an urban air mobility (UAM) fleet operating across multiple vertiports. This fleet scheduling problem is formulated to consider time-varying demand, constraints related to vertiport capacity, aircraft capacity and airspace safety guidelines, uncertainties related to take-off delay, weather-induced route closures, and unanticipated aircraft downtime. Collectively, such a formulation presents greater complexity, and potentially increased realism, than in existing UAM fleet planning implementations. To address these complexities, a new policy architecture is constructed, primary components of which include: graph capsule conv-nets for encoding vertiport and aircraft-fleet states both abstracted as graphs; transformer layers encoding time series information on demand and passenger fare; and a Multi-head Attention-based decoder that uses the encoded information to compute the probability of selecting each available destination for an aircraft. Trained with Proximal Policy Optimization, this policy architecture shows significantly better performance in terms of daily averaged profits on unseen test scenarios involving 8 vertiports and 40 aircraft, when compared to a random baseline and genetic algorithm-derived optimal solutions, while being nearly 1000 times faster in execution than the latter.
Standardizing Intelligence: Aligning Generative AI for Regulatory and Operational Compliance
Technical standards, or simply standards, are established documented guidelines and rules that facilitate the interoperability, quality, and accuracy of systems and processes. In recent years, we have witnessed an emerging paradigm shift where the adoption of generative AI (GenAI) models has increased tremendously, spreading implementation interests across standard-driven industries, including engineering, legal, healthcare, and education. In this paper, we assess the criticality levels of different standards across domains and sectors and complement them by grading the current compliance capabilities of state-of-the-art GenAI models. To support the discussion, we outline possible challenges and opportunities with integrating GenAI for standard compliance tasks while also providing actionable recommendations for entities involved with developing and using standards. Overall, we argue that aligning GenAI with standards through computational methods can help strengthen regulatory and operational compliance. We anticipate this area of research will play a central role in the management, oversight, and trustworthiness of larger, more powerful GenAI-based systems in the near future.