Daily Papers

Imbalanced distributions are ubiquitous in real-world data. They create constraints on Deep Neural Networks to represent the minority labels and avoid bias towards majority labels. The extensive body of imbalanced approaches address categorical label spaces but fail to effectively extend to regression problems where the label space is continuous. Local and global correlations among continuous labels provide valuable insights towards effectively modelling relationships in feature space. In this work, we propose ConR, a contrastive regularizer that models global and local label similarities in feature space and prevents the features of minority samples from being collapsed into their majority neighbours. ConR discerns the disagreements between the label space and feature space and imposes a penalty on these disagreements. ConR addresses the continuous nature of label space with two main strategies in a contrastive manner: incorrect proximities are penalized proportionate to the label similarities and the correct ones are encouraged to model local similarities. ConR consolidates essential considerations into a generic, easy-to-integrate, and efficient method that effectively addresses deep imbalanced regression. Moreover, ConR is orthogonal to existing approaches and smoothly extends to uni- and multi-dimensional label spaces. Our comprehensive experiments show that ConR significantly boosts the performance of all the state-of-the-art methods on four large-scale deep imbalanced regression benchmarks. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/ConR.

We present a novel approach for generating high-quality, spatio-temporally coherent human videos from a single image under arbitrary viewpoints. Our framework combines the strengths of U-Nets for accurate condition injection and diffusion transformers for capturing global correlations across viewpoints and time. The core is a cascaded 4D transformer architecture that factorizes attention across views, time, and spatial dimensions, enabling efficient modeling of the 4D space. Precise conditioning is achieved by injecting human identity, camera parameters, and temporal signals into the respective transformers. To train this model, we curate a multi-dimensional dataset spanning images, videos, multi-view data and 3D/4D scans, along with a multi-dimensional training strategy. Our approach overcomes the limitations of previous methods based on GAN or UNet-based diffusion models, which struggle with complex motions and viewpoint changes. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate our method's ability to synthesize realistic, coherent and free-view human videos, paving the way for advanced multimedia applications in areas such as virtual reality and animation. Our project website is https://human4dit.github.io.

The dominant CNN-based methods for cross-view image geo-localization rely on polar transform and fail to model global correlation. We propose a pure transformer-based approach (TransGeo) to address these limitations from a different perspective. TransGeo takes full advantage of the strengths of transformer related to global information modeling and explicit position information encoding. We further leverage the flexibility of transformer input and propose an attention-guided non-uniform cropping method, so that uninformative image patches are removed with negligible drop on performance to reduce computation cost. The saved computation can be reallocated to increase resolution only for informative patches, resulting in performance improvement with no additional computation cost. This "attend and zoom-in" strategy is highly similar to human behavior when observing images. Remarkably, TransGeo achieves state-of-the-art results on both urban and rural datasets, with significantly less computation cost than CNN-based methods. It does not rely on polar transform and infers faster than CNN-based methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Jeff-Zilence/TransGeo2022.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

We propose a novel convolutional architecture, named genCNN, for word sequence prediction. Different from previous work on neural network-based language modeling and generation (e.g., RNN or LSTM), we choose not to greedily summarize the history of words as a fixed length vector. Instead, we use a convolutional neural network to predict the next word with the history of words of variable length. Also different from the existing feedforward networks for language modeling, our model can effectively fuse the local correlation and global correlation in the word sequence, with a convolution-gating strategy specifically designed for the task. We argue that our model can give adequate representation of the history, and therefore can naturally exploit both the short and long range dependencies. Our model is fast, easy to train, and readily parallelized. Our extensive experiments on text generation and n-best re-ranking in machine translation show that genCNN outperforms the state-of-the-arts with big margins.

For the past ten years, CNN has reigned supreme in the world of computer vision, but recently, Transformer has been on the rise. However, the quadratic computational cost of self-attention has become a serious problem in practice applications. There has been much research on architectures without CNN and self-attention in this context. In particular, MLP-Mixer is a simple architecture designed using MLPs and hit an accuracy comparable to the Vision Transformer. However, the only inductive bias in this architecture is the embedding of tokens. This leaves open the possibility of incorporating a non-convolutional (or non-local) inductive bias into the architecture, so we used two simple ideas to incorporate inductive bias into the MLP-Mixer while taking advantage of its ability to capture global correlations. A way is to divide the token-mixing block vertically and horizontally. Another way is to make spatial correlations denser among some channels of token-mixing. With this approach, we were able to improve the accuracy of the MLP-Mixer while reducing its parameters and computational complexity. The small model that is RaftMLP-S is comparable to the state-of-the-art global MLP-based model in terms of parameters and efficiency per calculation. In addition, we tackled the problem of fixed input image resolution for global MLP-based models by utilizing bicubic interpolation. We demonstrated that these models could be applied as the backbone of architectures for downstream tasks such as object detection. However, it did not have significant performance and mentioned the need for MLP-specific architectures for downstream tasks for global MLP-based models. The source code in PyTorch version is available at https://github.com/okojoalg/raft-mlp.

In this paper, we present a Hybrid Spectral Denoising Transformer (HSDT) for hyperspectral image denoising. Challenges in adapting transformer for HSI arise from the capabilities to tackle existing limitations of CNN-based methods in capturing the global and local spatial-spectral correlations while maintaining efficiency and flexibility. To address these issues, we introduce a hybrid approach that combines the advantages of both models with a Spatial-Spectral Separable Convolution (S3Conv), Guided Spectral Self-Attention (GSSA), and Self-Modulated Feed-Forward Network (SM-FFN). Our S3Conv works as a lightweight alternative to 3D convolution, which extracts more spatial-spectral correlated features while keeping the flexibility to tackle HSIs with an arbitrary number of bands. These features are then adaptively processed by GSSA which per-forms 3D self-attention across the spectral bands, guided by a set of learnable queries that encode the spectral signatures. This not only enriches our model with powerful capabilities for identifying global spectral correlations but also maintains linear complexity. Moreover, our SM-FFN proposes the self-modulation that intensifies the activations of more informative regions, which further strengthens the aggregated features. Extensive experiments are conducted on various datasets under both simulated and real-world noise, and it shows that our HSDT significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods while maintaining low computational overhead. Code is at https: //github.com/Zeqiang-Lai/HSDT.

Low-light image enhancement (LLIE) restores the color and brightness of underexposed images. Supervised methods suffer from high costs in collecting low/normal-light image pairs. Unsupervised methods invest substantial effort in crafting complex loss functions. We address these two challenges through the proposed TroubleMaker Learning (TML) strategy, which employs normal-light images as inputs for training. TML is simple: we first dim the input and then increase its brightness. TML is based on two core components. First, the troublemaker model (TM) constructs pseudo low-light images from normal images to relieve the cost of pairwise data. Second, the predicting model (PM) enhances the brightness of pseudo low-light images. Additionally, we incorporate an enhancing model (EM) to further improve the visual performance of PM outputs. Moreover, in LLIE tasks, characterizing global element correlations is important because more information on the same object can be captured. CNN cannot achieve this well, and self-attention has high time complexity. Accordingly, we propose Global Dynamic Convolution (GDC) with O(n) time complexity, which essentially imitates the partial calculation process of self-attention to formulate elementwise correlations. Based on the GDC module, we build the UGDC model. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments demonstrate that UGDC trained with TML can achieve competitive performance against state-of-the-art approaches on public datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/Rainbowman0/TML_LLIE.

The convolutional neural network-based methods have become more and more popular for medical image segmentation due to their outstanding performance. However, they struggle with capturing long-range dependencies, which are essential for accurately modeling global contextual correlations. Thanks to the ability to model long-range dependencies by expanding the receptive field, the transformer-based methods have gained prominence. Inspired by this, we propose an advanced 2D feature extraction method by combining the convolutional neural network and Transformer architectures. More specifically, we introduce a parallelized encoder structure, where one branch uses ResNet to extract local information from images, while the other branch uses Transformer to extract global information. Furthermore, we integrate pyramid structures into the Transformer to extract global information at varying resolutions, especially in intensive prediction tasks. To efficiently utilize the different information in the parallelized encoder at the decoder stage, we use a channel attention module to merge the features of the encoder and propagate them through skip connections and bottlenecks. Intensive numerical experiments are performed on both aortic vessel tree, cardiac, and multi-organ datasets. By comparing with state-of-the-art medical image segmentation methods, our method is shown with better segmentation accuracy, especially on small organs. The code is publicly available on https://github.com/HongkunSun/ParaTransCNN.

There has been a growing interest in interpreting the underlying dynamics of Transformers. While self-attention patterns were initially deemed as the primary option, recent studies have shown that integrating other components can yield more accurate explanations. This paper introduces a novel token attribution analysis method that incorporates all the components in the encoder block and aggregates this throughout layers. Through extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments, we demonstrate that our method can produce faithful and meaningful global token attributions. Our experiments reveal that incorporating almost every encoder component results in increasingly more accurate analysis in both local (single layer) and global (the whole model) settings. Our global attribution analysis significantly outperforms previous methods on various tasks regarding correlation with gradient-based saliency scores. Our code is freely available at https://github.com/mohsenfayyaz/GlobEnc.

Image harmonization aims to solve the visual inconsistency problem in composited images by adaptively adjusting the foreground pixels with the background as references. Existing methods employ local color transformation or region matching between foreground and background, which neglects powerful proximity prior and independently distinguishes fore-/back-ground as a whole part for harmonization. As a result, they still show a limited performance across varied foreground objects and scenes. To address this issue, we propose a novel Global-aware Kernel Network (GKNet) to harmonize local regions with comprehensive consideration of long-distance background references. Specifically, GKNet includes two parts, \ie, harmony kernel prediction and harmony kernel modulation branches. The former includes a Long-distance Reference Extractor (LRE) to obtain long-distance context and Kernel Prediction Blocks (KPB) to predict multi-level harmony kernels by fusing global information with local features. To achieve this goal, a novel Selective Correlation Fusion (SCF) module is proposed to better select relevant long-distance background references for local harmonization. The latter employs the predicted kernels to harmonize foreground regions with both local and global awareness. Abundant experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method for image harmonization over state-of-the-art methods, \eg, achieving 39.53dB PSNR that surpasses the best counterpart by +0.78dB uparrow; decreasing fMSE/MSE by 11.5\%downarrow/6.7\%downarrow compared with the SoTA method. Code will be available at https://github.com/XintianShen/GKNet{here}.

Current studies on adversarial robustness mainly focus on aggregating local robustness results from a set of data samples to evaluate and rank different models. However, the local statistics may not well represent the true global robustness of the underlying unknown data distribution. To address this challenge, this paper makes the first attempt to present a new framework, called GREAT Score , for global robustness evaluation of adversarial perturbation using generative models. Formally, GREAT Score carries the physical meaning of a global statistic capturing a mean certified attack-proof perturbation level over all samples drawn from a generative model. For finite-sample evaluation, we also derive a probabilistic guarantee on the sample complexity and the difference between the sample mean and the true mean. GREAT Score has several advantages: (1) Robustness evaluations using GREAT Score are efficient and scalable to large models, by sparing the need of running adversarial attacks. In particular, we show high correlation and significantly reduced computation cost of GREAT Score when compared to the attack-based model ranking on RobustBench (Croce,et. al. 2021). (2) The use of generative models facilitates the approximation of the unknown data distribution. In our ablation study with different generative adversarial networks (GANs), we observe consistency between global robustness evaluation and the quality of GANs. (3) GREAT Score can be used for remote auditing of privacy-sensitive black-box models, as demonstrated by our robustness evaluation on several online facial recognition services.

Fine-tuned vision-language models (VLMs) often capture spurious correlations between image features and textual attributes, resulting in degraded zero-shot performance at test time. Existing approaches for addressing spurious correlations (i) primarily operate at the global image-level rather than intervening directly on fine-grained image features and (ii) are predominantly designed for unimodal settings. In this work, we present RaVL, which takes a fine-grained perspective on VLM robustness by discovering and mitigating spurious correlations using local image features rather than operating at the global image level. Given a fine-tuned VLM, RaVL first discovers spurious correlations by leveraging a region-level clustering approach to identify precise image features contributing to zero-shot classification errors. Then, RaVL mitigates the identified spurious correlation with a novel region-aware loss function that enables the VLM to focus on relevant regions and ignore spurious relationships during fine-tuning. We evaluate RaVL on 654 VLMs with various model architectures, data domains, and learned spurious correlations. Our results show that RaVL accurately discovers (191% improvement over the closest baseline) and mitigates (8.2% improvement on worst-group image classification accuracy) spurious correlations. Qualitative evaluations on general-domain and medical-domain VLMs confirm our findings.

In this work, we propose a Multi-Window Masked Autoencoder (MW-MAE) fitted with a novel Multi-Window Multi-Head Attention (MW-MHA) module that facilitates the modelling of local-global interactions in every decoder transformer block through attention heads of several distinct local and global windows. Empirical results on ten downstream audio tasks show that MW-MAEs consistently outperform standard MAEs in overall performance and learn better general-purpose audio representations, along with demonstrating considerably better scaling characteristics. Investigating attention distances and entropies reveals that MW-MAE encoders learn heads with broader local and global attention. Analyzing attention head feature representations through Projection Weighted Canonical Correlation Analysis (PWCCA) shows that attention heads with the same window sizes across the decoder layers of the MW-MAE learn correlated feature representations which enables each block to independently capture local and global information, leading to a decoupled decoder feature hierarchy. Code for feature extraction and downstream experiments along with pre-trained models will be released publically.

Exploiting spatial-angular correlation is crucial to light field (LF) image super-resolution (SR), but is highly challenging due to its non-local property caused by the disparities among LF images. Although many deep neural networks (DNNs) have been developed for LF image SR and achieved continuously improved performance, existing methods cannot well leverage the long-range spatial-angular correlation and thus suffer a significant performance drop when handling scenes with large disparity variations. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method to learn the non-local spatial-angular correlation for LF image SR. In our method, we adopt the epipolar plane image (EPI) representation to project the 4D spatial-angular correlation onto multiple 2D EPI planes, and then develop a Transformer network with repetitive self-attention operations to learn the spatial-angular correlation by modeling the dependencies between each pair of EPI pixels. Our method can fully incorporate the information from all angular views while achieving a global receptive field along the epipolar line. We conduct extensive experiments with insightful visualizations to validate the effectiveness of our method. Comparative results on five public datasets show that our method not only achieves state-of-the-art SR performance, but also performs robust to disparity variations. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZhengyuLiang24/EPIT.

Persona-driven role-playing (PRP) aims to build AI characters that can respond to user queries by faithfully sticking with all persona statements. Unfortunately, existing faithfulness criteria for PRP are limited to coarse-grained LLM-based scoring without a clear definition or formulation. This paper presents a pioneering exploration to quantify PRP faithfulness as a fine-grained and explainable criterion, which also serves as a reliable reference for optimization. Our criterion first discriminates persona statements into active and passive constraints by identifying the query-statement relevance. Then, we incorporate all constraints following the principle that the AI character's response should be (a) entailed by active (relevant) constraints and (b) not contradicted by passive (irrelevant) constraints. We translate this principle mathematically into a novel Active-Passive-Constraint (APC) score, a constraint-wise sum of natural language inference (NLI) scores weighted by relevance scores. In practice, we build the APC scoring system by symbolically distilling small discriminators from GPT-4 for efficiency. We validate the quality of the APC score against human evaluation based on example personas with tens of statements, and the results show a high correlation. We further leverage it as a reward system in direct preference optimization (DPO) for better AI characters. Our experiments offer a fine-grained and explainable comparison between existing PRP techniques, revealing their advantages and limitations. We further find APC-based DPO to be one of the most competitive techniques for sticking with all constraints and can be well incorporated with other techniques. We then extend the scale of the experiments to real persons with hundreds of statements and reach a consistent conclusion.

Lane detection is a challenging task that requires predicting complex topology shapes of lane lines and distinguishing different types of lanes simultaneously. Earlier works follow a top-down roadmap to regress predefined anchors into various shapes of lane lines, which lacks enough flexibility to fit complex shapes of lanes due to the fixed anchor shapes. Lately, some works propose to formulate lane detection as a keypoint estimation problem to describe the shapes of lane lines more flexibly and gradually group adjacent keypoints belonging to the same lane line in a point-by-point manner, which is inefficient and time-consuming during postprocessing. In this paper, we propose a Global Association Network (GANet) to formulate the lane detection problem from a new perspective, where each keypoint is directly regressed to the starting point of the lane line instead of point-by-point extension. Concretely, the association of keypoints to their belonged lane line is conducted by predicting their offsets to the corresponding starting points of lanes globally without dependence on each other, which could be done in parallel to greatly improve efficiency. In addition, we further propose a Lane-aware Feature Aggregator (LFA), which adaptively captures the local correlations between adjacent keypoints to supplement local information to the global association. Extensive experiments on two popular lane detection benchmarks show that our method outperforms previous methods with F1 score of 79.63% on CULane and 97.71% on Tusimple dataset with high FPS. The code will be released at https://github.com/Wolfwjs/GANet.

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.

Learning-based optical flow estimation has been dominated with the pipeline of cost volume with convolutions for flow regression, which is inherently limited to local correlations and thus is hard to address the long-standing challenge of large displacements. To alleviate this, the state-of-the-art framework RAFT gradually improves its prediction quality by using a large number of iterative refinements, achieving remarkable performance but introducing linearly increasing inference time. To enable both high accuracy and efficiency, we completely revamp the dominant flow regression pipeline by reformulating optical flow as a global matching problem, which identifies the correspondences by directly comparing feature similarities. Specifically, we propose a GMFlow framework, which consists of three main components: a customized Transformer for feature enhancement, a correlation and softmax layer for global feature matching, and a self-attention layer for flow propagation. We further introduce a refinement step that reuses GMFlow at higher feature resolution for residual flow prediction. Our new framework outperforms 31-refinements RAFT on the challenging Sintel benchmark, while using only one refinement and running faster, suggesting a new paradigm for accurate and efficient optical flow estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/haofeixu/gmflow.

This work describes a process for efficiently fine-tuning the GraphCast data-driven forecast model to simulate another analysis system, here the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Using two years of training data (July 2019 -- December 2021) and 37 GPU-days of computation to tune the 37-level, quarter-degree version of GraphCast, the resulting model significantly outperforms both the unmodified GraphCast and operational forecast, showing significant forecast skill in the troposphere over lead times from 1 to 10 days. This fine-tuning is accomplished through abbreviating DeepMind's original training curriculum for GraphCast, relying on a shorter single-step forecast stage to accomplish the bulk of the adaptation work and consolidating the autoregressive stages into separate 12hr, 1d, 2d, and 3d stages with larger learning rates. Additionally, training over 3d forecasts is split into two sub-steps to conserve host memory while maintaining a strong correlation with training over the full period.

Recently, deep learning technology has been successfully applied in the field of image compression, leading to superior rate-distortion performance. It is crucial to design an effective and efficient entropy model to estimate the probability distribution of the latent representation. However, the majority of entropy models primarily focus on one-dimensional correlation processing between channel and spatial information. In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Channel-wise and Global-inter attention Context (ACGC) entropy model, which can efficiently achieve dual feature aggregation in both inter-slice and intraslice contexts. Specifically, we divide the latent representation into different slices and then apply the ACGC model in a parallel checkerboard context to achieve faster decoding speed and higher rate-distortion performance. In order to capture redundant global features across different slices, we utilize deformable attention in adaptive global-inter attention to dynamically refine the attention weights based on the actual spatial relationships and context. Furthermore, in the main transformation structure, we propose a high-performance S2LIC model. We introduce the residual SwinV2 Transformer model to capture global feature information and utilize a dense block network as the feature enhancement module to improve the nonlinear representation of the image within the transformation structure. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves faster encoding and decoding speeds and outperforms VTM-17.1 and some recent learned image compression methods in both PSNR and MS-SSIM metrics.

It is now possible to reconstruct dynamic human motion and shape from a sparse set of cameras using Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) driven by an underlying skeleton. However, a challenge remains to model the deformation of cloth and skin in relation to skeleton pose. Unlike existing avatar models that are learned implicitly or rely on a proxy surface, our approach is motivated by the observation that different poses necessitate unique frequency assignments. Neglecting this distinction yields noisy artifacts in smooth areas or blurs fine-grained texture and shape details in sharp regions. We develop a two-branch neural network that is adaptive and explicit in the frequency domain. The first branch is a graph neural network that models correlations among body parts locally, taking skeleton pose as input. The second branch combines these correlation features to a set of global frequencies and then modulates the feature encoding. Our experiments demonstrate that our network outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of preserving details and generalization capabilities.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) is a revolutionary approach for rendering scenes by sampling a single ray per pixel and it has demonstrated impressive capabilities in novel-view synthesis from static scene images. However, in practice, we usually need to recover NeRF from unconstrained image collections, which poses two challenges: 1) the images often have dynamic changes in appearance because of different capturing time and camera settings; 2) the images may contain transient objects such as humans and cars, leading to occlusion and ghosting artifacts. Conventional approaches seek to address these challenges by locally utilizing a single ray to synthesize a color of a pixel. In contrast, humans typically perceive appearance and objects by globally utilizing information across multiple pixels. To mimic the perception process of humans, in this paper, we propose Cross-Ray NeRF (CR-NeRF) that leverages interactive information across multiple rays to synthesize occlusion-free novel views with the same appearances as the images. Specifically, to model varying appearances, we first propose to represent multiple rays with a novel cross-ray feature and then recover the appearance by fusing global statistics, i.e., feature covariance of the rays and the image appearance. Moreover, to avoid occlusion introduced by transient objects, we propose a transient objects handler and introduce a grid sampling strategy for masking out the transient objects. We theoretically find that leveraging correlation across multiple rays promotes capturing more global information. Moreover, extensive experimental results on large real-world datasets verify the effectiveness of CR-NeRF.

We propose Lodge, a network capable of generating extremely long dance sequences conditioned on given music. We design Lodge as a two-stage coarse to fine diffusion architecture, and propose the characteristic dance primitives that possess significant expressiveness as intermediate representations between two diffusion models. The first stage is global diffusion, which focuses on comprehending the coarse-level music-dance correlation and production characteristic dance primitives. In contrast, the second-stage is the local diffusion, which parallelly generates detailed motion sequences under the guidance of the dance primitives and choreographic rules. In addition, we propose a Foot Refine Block to optimize the contact between the feet and the ground, enhancing the physical realism of the motion. Our approach can parallelly generate dance sequences of extremely long length, striking a balance between global choreographic patterns and local motion quality and expressiveness. Extensive experiments validate the efficacy of our method.

We present the first neural relighting approach for rendering high-fidelity personalized hands that can be animated in real-time under novel illumination. Our approach adopts a teacher-student framework, where the teacher learns appearance under a single point light from images captured in a light-stage, allowing us to synthesize hands in arbitrary illuminations but with heavy compute. Using images rendered by the teacher model as training data, an efficient student model directly predicts appearance under natural illuminations in real-time. To achieve generalization, we condition the student model with physics-inspired illumination features such as visibility, diffuse shading, and specular reflections computed on a coarse proxy geometry, maintaining a small computational overhead. Our key insight is that these features have strong correlation with subsequent global light transport effects, which proves sufficient as conditioning data for the neural relighting network. Moreover, in contrast to bottleneck illumination conditioning, these features are spatially aligned based on underlying geometry, leading to better generalization to unseen illuminations and poses. In our experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of our illumination feature representations, outperforming baseline approaches. We also show that our approach can photorealistically relight two interacting hands at real-time speeds. https://sh8.io/#/relightable_hands

With the rapid development of facial manipulation techniques, face forgery detection has received considerable attention in digital media forensics due to security concerns. Most existing methods formulate face forgery detection as a classification problem and utilize binary labels or manipulated region masks as supervision. However, without considering the correlation between local regions, these global supervisions are insufficient to learn a generalized feature and prone to overfitting. To address this issue, we propose a novel perspective of face forgery detection via local relation learning. Specifically, we propose a Multi-scale Patch Similarity Module (MPSM), which measures the similarity between features of local regions and forms a robust and generalized similarity pattern. Moreover, we propose an RGB-Frequency Attention Module (RFAM) to fuse information in both RGB and frequency domains for more comprehensive local feature representation, which further improves the reliability of the similarity pattern. Extensive experiments show that the proposed method consistently outperforms the state-of-the-arts on widely-used benchmarks. Furthermore, detailed visualization shows the robustness and interpretability of our method.

The commonly adopted detect-then-match approach to registration finds difficulties in the cross-modality cases due to the incompatible keypoint detection and inconsistent feature description. We propose, 2D3D-MATR, a detection-free method for accurate and robust registration between images and point clouds. Our method adopts a coarse-to-fine pipeline where it first computes coarse correspondences between downsampled patches of the input image and the point cloud and then extends them to form dense correspondences between pixels and points within the patch region. The coarse-level patch matching is based on transformer which jointly learns global contextual constraints with self-attention and cross-modality correlations with cross-attention. To resolve the scale ambiguity in patch matching, we construct a multi-scale pyramid for each image patch and learn to find for each point patch the best matching image patch at a proper resolution level. Extensive experiments on two public benchmarks demonstrate that 2D3D-MATR outperforms the previous state-of-the-art P2-Net by around 20 percentage points on inlier ratio and over 10 points on registration recall. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/minhaolee/2D3DMATR.

Localizing objects in 3D scenes according to the semantics of a given natural language is a fundamental yet important task in the field of multimedia understanding, which benefits various real-world applications such as robotics and autonomous driving. However, the majority of existing 3D object grounding methods are restricted to a single-sentence input describing an individual object, which cannot comprehend and reason more contextualized descriptions of multiple objects in more practical 3D cases. To this end, we introduce a new challenging task, called 3D Dense Object Grounding (3D DOG), to jointly localize multiple objects described in a more complicated paragraph rather than a single sentence. Instead of naively localizing each sentence-guided object independently, we found that dense objects described in the same paragraph are often semantically related and spatially located in a focused region of the 3D scene. To explore such semantic and spatial relationships of densely referred objects for more accurate localization, we propose a novel Stacked Transformer based framework for 3D DOG, named 3DOGSFormer. Specifically, we first devise a contextual query-driven local transformer decoder to generate initial grounding proposals for each target object. Then, we employ a proposal-guided global transformer decoder that exploits the local object features to learn their correlation for further refining initial grounding proposals. Extensive experiments on three challenging benchmarks (Nr3D, Sr3D, and ScanRefer) show that our proposed 3DOGSFormer outperforms state-of-the-art 3D single-object grounding methods and their dense-object variants by significant margins.

CLIP, as a vision-language model, has significantly advanced Open-Vocabulary Semantic Segmentation (OVSS) with its zero-shot capabilities. Despite its success, its application to OVSS faces challenges due to its initial image-level alignment training, which affects its performance in tasks requiring detailed local context. Our study delves into the impact of CLIP's [CLS] token on patch feature correlations, revealing a dominance of "global" patches that hinders local feature discrimination. To overcome this, we propose CLIPtrase, a novel training-free semantic segmentation strategy that enhances local feature awareness through recalibrated self-correlation among patches. This approach demonstrates notable improvements in segmentation accuracy and the ability to maintain semantic coherence across objects.Experiments show that we are 22.3% ahead of CLIP on average on 9 segmentation benchmarks, outperforming existing state-of-the-art training-free methods.The code are made publicly available at: https://github.com/leaves162/CLIPtrase.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models that were initially proposed for realistic image generation have recently shown success in various perception tasks (e.g., object detection and image segmentation) and are increasingly gaining attention in computer vision. However, extending such models to multi-frame human pose estimation is non-trivial due to the presence of the additional temporal dimension in videos. More importantly, learning representations that focus on keypoint regions is crucial for accurate localization of human joints. Nevertheless, the adaptation of the diffusion-based methods remains unclear on how to achieve such objective. In this paper, we present DiffPose, a novel diffusion architecture that formulates video-based human pose estimation as a conditional heatmap generation problem. First, to better leverage temporal information, we propose SpatioTemporal Representation Learner which aggregates visual evidences across frames and uses the resulting features in each denoising step as a condition. In addition, we present a mechanism called Lookup-based MultiScale Feature Interaction that determines the correlations between local joints and global contexts across multiple scales. This mechanism generates delicate representations that focus on keypoint regions. Altogether, by extending diffusion models, we show two unique characteristics from DiffPose on pose estimation task: (i) the ability to combine multiple sets of pose estimates to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for challenging joints, and (ii) the ability to adjust the number of iterative steps for feature refinement without retraining the model. DiffPose sets new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks: PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

While Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) has advanced open-vocabulary predictions, its performance on semantic segmentation remains suboptimal. This shortfall primarily stems from its spatial-invariant semantic features and constrained resolution. While previous adaptations addressed spatial invariance semantic by modifying the self-attention in CLIP's image encoder, the issue of limited resolution remains unexplored. Different from previous segment-then-splice methods that segment sub-images via a sliding window and splice the results, we introduce a splice-then-segment paradigm that incorporates Segment-Anything Model (SAM) to tackle the resolution issue since SAM excels at extracting fine-grained semantic correlations from high-resolution images. Specifically, we introduce Trident, a training-free framework that first splices features extracted by CLIP and DINO from sub-images, then leverages SAM's encoder to create a correlation matrix for global aggregation, enabling a broadened receptive field for effective segmentation. Besides, we propose a refinement strategy for CLIP's coarse segmentation outputs by transforming them into prompts for SAM, further enhancing the segmentation performance. Trident achieves a significant improvement in the mIoU across eight benchmarks compared with the current SOTA, increasing from 44.4 to 48.6.Code is available at https://github.com/YuHengsss/Trident.

Effectively representing medical images, especially retinal images, presents a considerable challenge due to variations in appearance, size, and contextual information of pathological signs called lesions. Precise discrimination of these lesions is crucial for diagnosing vision-threatening issues such as diabetic retinopathy. While visual attention-based neural networks have been introduced to learn spatial context and channel correlations from retinal images, they often fall short in capturing localized lesion context. Addressing this limitation, we propose a novel attention mechanism called Guided Context Gating, an unique approach that integrates Context Formulation, Channel Correlation, and Guided Gating to learn global context, spatial correlations, and localized lesion context. Our qualitative evaluation against existing attention mechanisms emphasize the superiority of Guided Context Gating in terms of explainability. Notably, experiments on the Zenodo-DR-7 dataset reveal a substantial 2.63% accuracy boost over advanced attention mechanisms & an impressive 6.53% improvement over the state-of-the-art Vision Transformer for assessing the severity grade of retinopathy, even with imbalanced and limited training samples for each class.

Large scale text-guided diffusion models have garnered significant attention due to their ability to synthesize diverse images that convey complex visual concepts. This generative power has more recently been leveraged to perform text-to-3D synthesis. In this work, we present a technique that harnesses the power of latent diffusion models for editing existing 3D objects. Our method takes oriented 2D images of a 3D object as input and learns a grid-based volumetric representation of it. To guide the volumetric representation to conform to a target text prompt, we follow unconditional text-to-3D methods and optimize a Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) loss. However, we observe that combining this diffusion-guided loss with an image-based regularization loss that encourages the representation not to deviate too strongly from the input object is challenging, as it requires achieving two conflicting goals while viewing only structure-and-appearance coupled 2D projections. Thus, we introduce a novel volumetric regularization loss that operates directly in 3D space, utilizing the explicit nature of our 3D representation to enforce correlation between the global structure of the original and edited object. Furthermore, we present a technique that optimizes cross-attention volumetric grids to refine the spatial extent of the edits. Extensive experiments and comparisons demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in creating a myriad of edits which cannot be achieved by prior works.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

Redundancies and correlations in the responses of sensory neurons seem to waste neural resources but can carry cues about structured stimuli and may help the brain to correct for response errors. To assess how the retina negotiates this tradeoff, we measured simultaneous responses from populations of ganglion cells presented with natural and artificial stimuli that varied greatly in correlation structure. We found that pairwise correlations in the retinal output remained similar across stimuli with widely different spatio-temporal correlations including white noise and natural movies. Meanwhile, purely spatial correlations tended to increase correlations in the retinal response. Responding to more correlated stimuli, ganglion cells had faster temporal kernels and tended to have stronger surrounds. These properties of individual cells, along with gain changes that opposed changes in effective contrast at the ganglion cell input, largely explained the similarity of pairwise correlations across stimuli where receptive field measurements were possible.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Systems of interacting objects often evolve under the influence of field effects that govern their dynamics, yet previous works have abstracted away from such effects, and assume that systems evolve in a vacuum. In this work, we focus on discovering these fields, and infer them from the observed dynamics alone, without directly observing them. We theorize the presence of latent force fields, and propose neural fields to learn them. Since the observed dynamics constitute the net effect of local object interactions and global field effects, recently popularized equivariant networks are inapplicable, as they fail to capture global information. To address this, we propose to disentangle local object interactions -- which are SE(n) equivariant and depend on relative states -- from external global field effects -- which depend on absolute states. We model interactions with equivariant graph networks, and combine them with neural fields in a novel graph network that integrates field forces. Our experiments show that we can accurately discover the underlying fields in charged particles settings, traffic scenes, and gravitational n-body problems, and effectively use them to learn the system and forecast future trajectories.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Data heterogeneity in federated learning, characterized by a significant misalignment between local and global distributions, leads to divergent local optimization directions and hinders global model training. Existing studies mainly focus on optimizing local updates or global aggregation, but these indirect approaches demonstrate instability when handling highly heterogeneous data distributions, especially in scenarios where label skew and domain skew coexist. To address this, we propose a geometry-guided data generation method that centers on simulating the global embedding distribution locally. We first introduce the concept of the geometric shape of an embedding distribution and then address the challenge of obtaining global geometric shapes under privacy constraints. Subsequently, we propose GGEUR, which leverages global geometric shapes to guide the generation of new samples, enabling a closer approximation to the ideal global distribution. In single-domain scenarios, we augment samples based on global geometric shapes to enhance model generalization; in multi-domain scenarios, we further employ class prototypes to simulate the global distribution across domains. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the performance of existing approaches in handling highly heterogeneous data, including scenarios with label skew, domain skew, and their coexistence. Code published at: https://github.com/WeiDai-David/2025CVPR_GGEUR

Epidemiologists aiming to model the dynamics of global events face a significant challenge in identifying the factors linked with anomalies such as disease outbreaks. In this paper, we present a novel method for identifying the most important development sectors sensitive to disease outbreaks by using global development indicators as markers. We use statistical methods to assess the causative linkages between these indicators and disease outbreaks, as well as to find the most often ranked indicators. We used data imputation techniques in addition to statistical analysis to convert raw real-world data sets into meaningful data for causal inference. The application of various algorithms for the detection of causal linkages between the indicators is the subject of this research. Despite the fact that disparities in governmental policies between countries account for differences in causal linkages, several indicators emerge as important determinants sensitive to disease outbreaks over the world in the 21st Century.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Modelling interactions is critical in learning complex dynamical systems, namely systems of interacting objects with highly non-linear and time-dependent behaviour. A large class of such systems can be formalized as geometric graphs, i.e., graphs with nodes positioned in the Euclidean space given an arbitrarily chosen global coordinate system, for instance vehicles in a traffic scene. Notwithstanding the arbitrary global coordinate system, the governing dynamics of the respective dynamical systems are invariant to rotations and translations, also known as Galilean invariance. As ignoring these invariances leads to worse generalization, in this work we propose local coordinate frames per node-object to induce roto-translation invariance to the geometric graph of the interacting dynamical system. Further, the local coordinate frames allow for a natural definition of anisotropic filtering in graph neural networks. Experiments in traffic scenes, 3D motion capture, and colliding particles demonstrate that the proposed approach comfortably outperforms the recent state-of-the-art.

Multi-subject fMRI studies are challenging due to the high variability of both brain anatomy and functional brain topographies across participants. An effective way of aggregating multi-subject fMRI data is to extract a shared representation that filters out unwanted variability among subjects. Some recent work has implemented probabilistic models to extract a shared representation in task fMRI. In the present work, we improve upon these models by incorporating temporal information in the common latent structures. We introduce a new model, Shared Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (S-GPFA), that discovers shared latent trajectories and subject-specific functional topographies, while modelling temporal correlation in fMRI data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model in revealing ground truth latent structures using simulated data, and replicate experimental performance of time-segment matching and inter-subject similarity on the publicly available Raider and Sherlock datasets. We further test the utility of our model by analyzing its learned model parameters in the large multi-site SPINS dataset, on a social cognition task from participants with and without schizophrenia.

The Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) family of methods is foundational in multiview learning. Regularised linear CCA methods can be seen to generalise Partial Least Squares (PLS) and be unified with a Generalized Eigenvalue Problem (GEP) framework. However, classical algorithms for these linear methods are computationally infeasible for large-scale data. Extensions to Deep CCA show great promise, but current training procedures are slow and complicated. First we propose a novel unconstrained objective that characterizes the top subspace of GEPs. Our core contribution is a family of fast algorithms for stochastic PLS, stochastic CCA, and Deep CCA, simply obtained by applying stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to the corresponding CCA objectives. Our algorithms show far faster convergence and recover higher correlations than the previous state-of-the-art on all standard CCA and Deep CCA benchmarks. These improvements allow us to perform a first-of-its-kind PLS analysis of an extremely large biomedical dataset from the UK Biobank, with over 33,000 individuals and 500,000 features. Finally, we apply our algorithms to match the performance of `CCA-family' Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 with minimal hyper-parameter tuning, and also present theory to clarify the links between these methods and classical CCA, laying the groundwork for future insights.

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.

We decompose the evidence lower bound to show the existence of a term measuring the total correlation between latent variables. We use this to motivate our beta-TCVAE (Total Correlation Variational Autoencoder), a refinement of the state-of-the-art beta-VAE objective for learning disentangled representations, requiring no additional hyperparameters during training. We further propose a principled classifier-free measure of disentanglement called the mutual information gap (MIG). We perform extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments, in both restricted and non-restricted settings, and show a strong relation between total correlation and disentanglement, when the latent variables model is trained using our framework.

As neural networks grow in scale, their training becomes both computationally demanding and rich in dynamics. Amidst the flourishing interest in these training dynamics, we present a novel observation: Parameters during training exhibit intrinsic correlations over time. Capitalizing on this, we introduce Correlation Mode Decomposition (CMD). This algorithm clusters the parameter space into groups, termed modes, that display synchronized behavior across epochs. This enables CMD to efficiently represent the training dynamics of complex networks, like ResNets and Transformers, using only a few modes. Moreover, test set generalization is enhanced. We introduce an efficient CMD variant, designed to run concurrently with training. Our experiments indicate that CMD surpasses the state-of-the-art method for compactly modeled dynamics on image classification. Our modeling can improve training efficiency and lower communication overhead, as shown by our preliminary experiments in the context of federated learning.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

The Shapley value is one of the most widely used measures of feature importance partly as it measures a feature's average effect on a model's prediction. We introduce joint Shapley values, which directly extend Shapley's axioms and intuitions: joint Shapley values measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction. We prove the uniqueness of joint Shapley values, for any order of explanation. Results for games show that joint Shapley values present different insights from existing interaction indices, which assess the effect of a feature within a set of features. The joint Shapley values provide intuitive results in ML attribution problems. With binary features, we present a presence-adjusted global value that is more consistent with local intuitions than the usual approach.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.

Pruning neural networks has become popular in the last decade when it was shown that a large number of weights can be safely removed from modern neural networks without compromising accuracy. Numerous pruning methods have been proposed since then, each claiming to be better than the previous. Many state-of-the-art (SOTA) techniques today rely on complex pruning methodologies utilizing importance scores, getting feedback through back-propagation or having heuristics-based pruning rules amongst others. In this work, we question whether this pattern of introducing complexity is really necessary to achieve better pruning results. We benchmark these SOTA techniques against a naive pruning baseline, namely, Global Magnitude Pruning (Global MP). Global MP ranks weights in order of their magnitudes and prunes the smallest ones. Hence, in its vanilla form, it is one of the simplest pruning techniques. Surprisingly, we find that vanilla Global MP outperforms all the other SOTA techniques and achieves a new SOTA result. It also achieves promising performance on FLOPs sparsification, which we find is enhanced, when pruning is conducted in a gradual fashion. We also find that Global MP is generalizable across tasks, datasets, and models with superior performance. Moreover, a common issue that many pruning algorithms run into at high sparsity rates, namely, layer-collapse, can be easily fixed in Global MP by setting a minimum threshold of weights to be retained in each layer. Lastly, unlike many other SOTA techniques, Global MP does not require any additional algorithm specific hyper-parameters and is very straightforward to tune and implement. We showcase our findings on various models (WRN-28-8, ResNet-32, ResNet-50, MobileNet-V1 and FastGRNN) and multiple datasets (CIFAR-10, ImageNet and HAR-2). Code is available at https://github.com/manasgupta-1/GlobalMP.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

We performed variability analysis of the multiwavelength light curves for the flat-spectrum radio quasar PKS 0727-11. Using the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram, we identified a possible quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) of sim 168.6 days (persisted for 6 cycles, with a significance of 3.8sigma) in the gamma-ray light curve during the flare period (MJD 54687-55738). It is the first time that periodic variations have been detected in this source, and further supported by other methods: weighted wavelet z-transform, phase dispersion minimization, REDFIT, autoregressive integrated moving average model, and structure function analysis. Cross-correlation analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between multi-band light variations, indicating that gamma-ray and radio flares may originate from the same disturbance, and the distance between the emission regions of gamma-ray and radio flares is calculated based on the time lag. We demonstrate that QPO arising from the non-ballistic helical jet motion driven by the orbital motion in a supermassive binary black hole is a plausible physical explanation. In this scenario, the estimated mass of the primary black hole is Msim3.66times10^8-5.79times10^{9}M_odot.

The analysis of scientific data and complex multivariate systems requires information quantities that capture relationships among multiple random variables. Recently, new information-theoretic measures have been developed to overcome the shortcomings of classical ones, such as mutual information, that are restricted to considering pairwise interactions. Among them, the concept of information synergy and redundancy is crucial for understanding the high-order dependencies between variables. One of the most prominent and versatile measures based on this concept is O-information, which provides a clear and scalable way to quantify the synergy-redundancy balance in multivariate systems. However, its practical application is limited to simplified cases. In this work, we introduce SOmegaI, which allows for the first time to compute O-information without restrictive assumptions about the system. Our experiments validate our approach on synthetic data, and demonstrate the effectiveness of SOmegaI in the context of a real-world use case.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

We define the bicategory of Graph Convolutional Neural Networks GCNN_n for an arbitrary graph with n nodes. We show it can be factored through the already existing categorical constructions for deep learning called Para and Lens with the base category set to the CoKleisli category of the product comonad. We prove that there exists an injective-on-objects, faithful 2-functor GCNN_n to Para(CoKl(R^{n times n} times -)). We show that this construction allows us to treat the adjacency matrix of a GCNN as a global parameter instead of a a local, layer-wise one. This gives us a high-level categorical characterisation of a particular kind of inductive bias GCNNs possess. Lastly, we hypothesize about possible generalisations of GCNNs to general message-passing graph neural networks, connections to equivariant learning, and the (lack of) functoriality of activation functions.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Currently, high-dimensional data is ubiquitous in data science, which necessitates the development of techniques to decompose and interpret such multidimensional (aka tensor) datasets. Finding a low dimensional representation of the data, that is, its inherent structure, is one of the approaches that can serve to understand the dynamics of low dimensional latent features hidden in the data. Nonnegative RESCAL is one such technique, particularly well suited to analyze self-relational data, such as dynamic networks found in international trade flows. Nonnegative RESCAL computes a low dimensional tensor representation by finding the latent space containing multiple modalities. Estimating the dimensionality of this latent space is crucial for extracting meaningful latent features. Here, to determine the dimensionality of the latent space with nonnegative RESCAL, we propose a latent dimension determination method which is based on clustering of the solutions of multiple realizations of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions. We demonstrate the performance of our model selection method on synthetic data and then we apply our method to decompose a network of international trade flows data from International Monetary Fund and validate the resulting features against empirical facts from economic literature.

In this work, we seek new insights into the underlying challenges of the Scene Graph Generation (SGG) task. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Visual Genome dataset implies -- 1) Ambiguity: even if inter-object relationship contains the same object (or predicate), they may not be visually or semantically similar, 2) Asymmetry: despite the nature of the relationship that embodied the direction, it was not well addressed in previous studies, and 3) Higher-order contexts: leveraging the identities of certain graph elements can help to generate accurate scene graphs. Motivated by the analysis, we design a novel SGG framework, Local-to-Global Interaction Networks (LOGIN). Locally, interactions extract the essence between three instances of subject, object, and background, while baking direction awareness into the network by explicitly constraining the input order of subject and object. Globally, interactions encode the contexts between every graph component (i.e., nodes and edges). Finally, Attract & Repel loss is utilized to fine-tune the distribution of predicate embeddings. By design, our framework enables predicting the scene graph in a bottom-up manner, leveraging the possible complementariness. To quantify how much LOGIN is aware of relational direction, a new diagnostic task called Bidirectional Relationship Classification (BRC) is also proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that LOGIN can successfully distinguish relational direction than existing methods (in BRC task), while showing state-of-the-art results on the Visual Genome benchmark (in SGG task).

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

A basic question within the emerging field of mechanistic interpretability is the degree to which neural networks learn the same underlying mechanisms. In other words, are neural mechanisms universal across different models? In this work, we study the universality of individual neurons across GPT2 models trained from different initial random seeds, motivated by the hypothesis that universal neurons are likely to be interpretable. In particular, we compute pairwise correlations of neuron activations over 100 million tokens for every neuron pair across five different seeds and find that 1-5\% of neurons are universal, that is, pairs of neurons which consistently activate on the same inputs. We then study these universal neurons in detail, finding that they usually have clear interpretations and taxonomize them into a small number of neuron families. We conclude by studying patterns in neuron weights to establish several universal functional roles of neurons in simple circuits: deactivating attention heads, changing the entropy of the next token distribution, and predicting the next token to (not) be within a particular set.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

Worldwide Geo-localization aims to pinpoint the precise location of images taken anywhere on Earth. This task has considerable challenges due to immense variation in geographic landscapes. The image-to-image retrieval-based approaches fail to solve this problem on a global scale as it is not feasible to construct a large gallery of images covering the entire world. Instead, existing approaches divide the globe into discrete geographic cells, transforming the problem into a classification task. However, their performance is limited by the predefined classes and often results in inaccurate localizations when an image's location significantly deviates from its class center. To overcome these limitations, we propose GeoCLIP, a novel CLIP-inspired Image-to-GPS retrieval approach that enforces alignment between the image and its corresponding GPS locations. GeoCLIP's location encoder models the Earth as a continuous function by employing positional encoding through random Fourier features and constructing a hierarchical representation that captures information at varying resolutions to yield a semantically rich high-dimensional feature suitable to use even beyond geo-localization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work employing GPS encoding for geo-localization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method via extensive experiments and ablations on benchmark datasets. We achieve competitive performance with just 20% of training data, highlighting its effectiveness even in limited-data settings. Furthermore, we qualitatively demonstrate geo-localization using a text query by leveraging CLIP backbone of our image encoder. The project webpage is available at: https://vicentevivan.github.io/GeoCLIP

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

In federated learning (FL), weighted aggregation of local models is conducted to generate a global model, and the aggregation weights are normalized (the sum of weights is 1) and proportional to the local data sizes. In this paper, we revisit the weighted aggregation process and gain new insights into the training dynamics of FL. First, we find that the sum of weights can be smaller than 1, causing global weight shrinking effect (analogous to weight decay) and improving generalization. We explore how the optimal shrinking factor is affected by clients' data heterogeneity and local epochs. Second, we dive into the relative aggregation weights among clients to depict the clients' importance. We develop client coherence to study the learning dynamics and find a critical point that exists. Before entering the critical point, more coherent clients play more essential roles in generalization. Based on the above insights, we propose an effective method for Federated Learning with Learnable Aggregation Weights, named as FedLAW. Extensive experiments verify that our method can improve the generalization of the global model by a large margin on different datasets and models.

Strong correlation brings a rich array of emergent phenomena, as well as a daunting challenge to theoretical physics study. In condensed matter physics, the fractional quantum Hall effect is a prominent example of strong correlation, with Landau level mixing being one of the most challenging aspects to address using traditional computational methods. Deep learning real-space neural network wavefunction methods have emerged as promising architectures to describe electron correlations in molecules and materials, but their power has not been fully tested for exotic quantum states. In this work, we employ real-space neural network wavefunction techniques to investigate fractional quantum Hall systems. On both 1/3 and 2/5 filling systems, we achieve energies consistently lower than exact diagonalization results which only consider the lowest Landau level. We also demonstrate that the real-space neural network wavefunction can naturally capture the extent of Landau level mixing up to a very high level, overcoming the limitations of traditional methods. Our work underscores the potential of neural networks for future studies of strongly correlated systems and opens new avenues for exploring the rich physics of the fractional quantum Hall effect.