Daily Papers

This paper presents a study on the feasibility of using large language models (LLM) for coding with low-resource and domain-specific programming languages that typically lack the amount of data required for effective LLM processing techniques. This study focuses on the econometric scripting language named hansl of the open-source software gretl and employs a proprietary LLM based on GPT-3.5. Our findings suggest that LLMs can be a useful tool for writing, understanding, improving, and documenting gretl code, which includes generating descriptive docstrings for functions and providing precise explanations for abstract and poorly documented econometric code. While the LLM showcased promoting docstring-to-code translation capability, we also identify some limitations, such as its inability to improve certain sections of code and to write accurate unit tests. This study is a step towards leveraging the power of LLMs to facilitate software development in low-resource programming languages and ultimately to lower barriers to entry for their adoption.

We present GlotScript, an open resource and tool for low resource writing system identification. GlotScript-R is a resource that provides the attested writing systems for more than 7,000 languages. It is compiled by aggregating information from existing writing system resources. GlotScript-T is a writing system identification tool that covers all 161 Unicode 15.0 scripts. For an input text, it returns its script distribution where scripts are identified by ISO 15924 codes. We also present two use cases for GlotScript. First, we demonstrate that GlotScript supports cleaning multilingual corpora such as mC4 and OSCAR. Second, we analyze the tokenization of a number of language models such as GPT-4 using GlotScript and provide insights on the coverage of low resource scripts and languages by each language model. We hope that GlotScript will become a useful resource for work on low resource languages in the NLP community. GlotScript-R and GlotScript-T are available at https://github.com/cisnlp/GlotScript.

CONTEXT The R programming language has a huge and active community, especially in the area of statistical computing. Its interpreted nature allows for several interesting constructs, like the manipulation of functions at run-time, that hinder the static analysis of R programs. At the same time, there is a lack of existing research regarding how these features, or even the R language as a whole are used in practice. OBJECTIVE In this paper, we conduct a large-scale, static analysis of more than 50 million lines of real-world R programs and packages to identify their characteristics and the features that are actually used. Moreover, we compare the similarities and differences between the scripts of R users and the implementations of package authors. We provide insights for static analysis tools like the lintr package as well as potential interpreter optimizations and uncover areas for future research. METHOD We analyze 4230 R scripts submitted alongside publications and the sources of 19450 CRAN packages for over 350000 R files, collecting and summarizing quantitative information for features of interest. RESULTS We find a high frequency of name-based indexing operations, assignments, and loops, but a low frequency for most of R's reflective functions. Furthermore, we find neither testing functions nor many calls to R's foreign function interface (FFI) in the publication submissions. CONCLUSION R scripts and package sources differ, for example, in their size, the way they include other packages, and their usage of R's reflective capabilities. We provide features that are used frequently and should be prioritized by static analysis tools, like operator assignments, function calls, and certain reflective functions like load.

The ability to generate natural language sequences from source code snippets has a variety of applications such as code summarization, documentation, and retrieval. Sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models, adopted from neural machine translation (NMT), have achieved state-of-the-art performance on these tasks by treating source code as a sequence of tokens. We present {scriptsize CODE2SEQ}: an alternative approach that leverages the syntactic structure of programming languages to better encode source code. Our model represents a code snippet as the set of compositional paths in its abstract syntax tree (AST) and uses attention to select the relevant paths while decoding. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for two tasks, two programming languages, and four datasets of up to 16M examples. Our model significantly outperforms previous models that were specifically designed for programming languages, as well as state-of-the-art NMT models. An interactive online demo of our model is available at http://code2seq.org. Our code, data and trained models are available at http://github.com/tech-srl/code2seq.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Scholarship on generative pretraining (GPT) remains acutely Anglocentric, leaving serious gaps in our understanding of the whole class of autoregressive models. For example, we have little knowledge about the potential of these models and their societal impacts in diverse linguistic and cultural settings. We alleviate this issue for Arabic, a wide collection of languages and dialectal varieties with more than 400 million population, by introducing JASMINE. JASMINE is a suite of powerful Arabic autoregressive Transformer language models ranging in size between 300 million-6.7 billion parameters pretrained on a large and diverse dataset (~ 235 GB of text). We also carefully design and release a comprehensive benchmark for both automated and human evaluation of Arabic autoregressive models, with coverage of potential social biases, harms, and toxicity. Using our novel benchmark, we evaluate JASMINE extensively showing powerful performance intrinsically as well as in few-shot learning on a wide range of NLP tasks. We aim to responsibly release our models and evaluation benchmark with interested researchers, along with code for experimenting with them.

With the evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) we can solve increasingly more complex NLP tasks across various domains, including spreadsheets. This work investigates whether LLMs can generate code (Excel OfficeScripts, a TypeScript API for executing many tasks in Excel) that solves Excel specific tasks provided via natural language user instructions. To do so we introduce a new large-scale benchmark, InstructExcel, created by leveraging the 'Automate' feature in Excel to automatically generate OfficeScripts from users' actions. Our benchmark includes over 10k samples covering 170+ Excel operations across 2,000 publicly available Excel spreadsheets. Experiments across various zero-shot and few-shot settings show that InstructExcel is a hard benchmark for state of the art models like GPT-4. We observe that (1) using GPT-4 over GPT-3.5, (2) providing more in-context examples, and (3) dynamic prompting can help improve performance on this benchmark.

We introduce SpreadsheetBench, a challenging spreadsheet manipulation benchmark exclusively derived from real-world scenarios, designed to immerse current large language models (LLMs) in the actual workflow of spreadsheet users. Unlike existing benchmarks that rely on synthesized queries and simplified spreadsheet files, SpreadsheetBench is built from 912 real questions gathered from online Excel forums, which reflect the intricate needs of users. The associated spreadsheets from the forums contain a variety of tabular data such as multiple tables, non-standard relational tables, and abundant non-textual elements. Furthermore, we propose a more reliable evaluation metric akin to online judge platforms, where multiple spreadsheet files are created as test cases for each instruction, ensuring the evaluation of robust solutions capable of handling spreadsheets with varying values. Our comprehensive evaluation of various LLMs under both single-round and multi-round inference settings reveals a substantial gap between the state-of-the-art (SOTA) models and human performance, highlighting the benchmark's difficulty.

Large language models have demonstrated outstanding performance on a wide range of tasks such as question answering and code generation. On a high level, given an input, a language model can be used to automatically complete the sequence in a statistically-likely way. Based on this, users prompt these models with language instructions or examples, to implement a variety of downstream tasks. Advanced prompting methods can even imply interaction between the language model, a user, and external tools such as calculators. However, to obtain state-of-the-art performance or adapt language models for specific tasks, complex task- and model-specific programs have to be implemented, which may still require ad-hoc interaction. Based on this, we present the novel idea of Language Model Programming (LMP). LMP generalizes language model prompting from pure text prompts to an intuitive combination of text prompting and scripting. Additionally, LMP allows constraints to be specified over the language model output. This enables easy adaption to many tasks while abstracting language model internals and providing high-level semantics. To enable LMP, we implement LMQL(short for Language Model Query Language), which leverages the constraints and control flow from an LMP prompt to generate an efficient inference procedure that minimizes the number of expensive calls to the underlying language model. We show that LMQL can capture a wide range of state-of-the-art prompting methods in an intuitive way, especially facilitating interactive flows that are challenging to implement with existing high-level APIs. Our evaluation shows that we retain or increase the accuracy on several downstream tasks, while also significantly reducing the required amount of computation or cost in the case of pay-to-use APIs (26-85% cost savings).

Large language models generate code one token at a time. Their autoregressive generation process lacks the feedback of observing the program's output. Training LLMs to suggest edits directly can be challenging due to the scarcity of rich edit data. To address these problems, we propose neural diffusion models that operate on syntax trees of any context-free grammar. Similar to image diffusion models, our method also inverts ``noise'' applied to syntax trees. Rather than generating code sequentially, we iteratively edit it while preserving syntactic validity, which makes it easy to combine this neural model with search. We apply our approach to inverse graphics tasks, where our model learns to convert images into programs that produce those images. Combined with search, our model is able to write graphics programs, see the execution result, and debug them to meet the required specifications. We additionally show how our system can write graphics programs for hand-drawn sketches.

Code benchmarks such as HumanEval are widely adopted to evaluate Large Language Models' (LLMs) coding capabilities. However, there is an unignorable programming language bias in existing code benchmarks -- over 95% code generation benchmarks are dominated by Python, leaving the LLMs' capabilities in other programming languages such as Java and C/C++ unknown. Moreover, coding task bias is also crucial. Most benchmarks focus on code generation capability, while benchmarks for code reasoning (given input, reasoning output; and given output, reasoning input), an essential coding capability, are insufficient. Yet, constructing multi-lingual benchmarks can be expensive and labor-intensive, and codes in contest websites such as Leetcode suffer from data contamination during training. To fill this gap, we propose CRUXEVAL-X, a multi-lingual code reasoning benchmark that contains 19 programming languages. It comprises at least 600 subjects for each language, along with 19K content-consistent tests in total. In particular, the construction pipeline of CRUXEVAL-X works in a fully automated and test-guided manner, which iteratively generates and repairs based on execution feedback. Also, to cross language barriers (e.g., dynamic/static type systems in Python/C++), we formulated various transition rules between language pairs to facilitate translation. Our intensive evaluation of 24 representative LLMs reveals the correlation between language pairs. For example, TypeScript and JavaScript show a significant positive correlation, while Racket has less correlation with other languages. More interestingly, even a model trained solely on Python can achieve at most 34.4% Pass@1 in other languages, revealing the cross-language generalization of LLMs.

The labor market is a complex ecosystem comprising diverse, interconnected entities, such as industries, occupations, skills, and firms. Due to the lack of a systematic method to map these heterogeneous entities together, each entity has been analyzed in isolation or only through pairwise relationships, inhibiting comprehensive understanding of the whole ecosystem. Here, we introduce Labor Space, a vector-space embedding of heterogeneous labor market entities, derived through applying a large language model with fine-tuning. Labor Space exposes the complex relational fabric of various labor market constituents, facilitating coherent integrative analysis of industries, occupations, skills, and firms, while retaining type-specific clustering. We demonstrate its unprecedented analytical capacities, including positioning heterogeneous entities on an economic axes, such as `Manufacturing--Healthcare'. Furthermore, by allowing vector arithmetic of these entities, Labor Space enables the exploration of complex inter-unit relations, and subsequently the estimation of the ramifications of economic shocks on individual units and their ripple effect across the labor market. We posit that Labor Space provides policymakers and business leaders with a comprehensive unifying framework for labor market analysis and simulation, fostering more nuanced and effective strategic decision-making.

In everyday life, humans often plan their actions by following step-by-step instructions in the form of goal-oriented scripts. Previous work has exploited language models (LMs) to plan for abstract goals of stereotypical activities (e.g., "make a cake"), but leaves more specific goals with multi-facet constraints understudied (e.g., "make a cake for diabetics"). In this paper, we define the task of constrained language planning for the first time. We propose an overgenerate-then-filter approach to improve large language models (LLMs) on this task, and use it to distill a novel constrained language planning dataset, CoScript, which consists of 55,000 scripts. Empirical results demonstrate that our method significantly improves the constrained language planning ability of LLMs, especially on constraint faithfulness. Furthermore, CoScript is demonstrated to be quite effective in endowing smaller LMs with constrained language planning ability.

How should one judge whether a given large language model (LLM) can reliably perform economic reasoning? Most existing LLM benchmarks focus on specific applications and fail to present the model with a rich variety of economic tasks. A notable exception is Raman et al. [2024], who offer an approach for comprehensively benchmarking strategic decision-making; however, this approach fails to address the non-strategic settings prevalent in microeconomics, such as supply-and-demand analysis. We address this gap by taxonomizing microeconomic reasoning into 58 distinct elements, focusing on the logic of supply and demand, each grounded in up to 10 distinct domains, 5 perspectives, and 3 types. The generation of benchmark data across this combinatorial space is powered by a novel LLM-assisted data generation protocol that we dub auto-STEER, which generates a set of questions by adapting handwritten templates to target new domains and perspectives. Because it offers an automated way of generating fresh questions, auto-STEER mitigates the risk that LLMs will be trained to over-fit evaluation benchmarks; we thus hope that it will serve as a useful tool both for evaluating and fine-tuning models for years to come. We demonstrate the usefulness of our benchmark via a case study on 27 LLMs, ranging from small open-source models to the current state of the art. We examined each model's ability to solve microeconomic problems across our whole taxonomy and present the results across a range of prompting strategies and scoring metrics.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

Imagine a developer who can only change their last line of code, how often would they have to start writing a function from scratch before it is correct? Auto-regressive models for code generation from natural language have a similar limitation: they do not easily allow reconsidering earlier tokens generated. We introduce CodeFusion, a pre-trained diffusion code generation model that addresses this limitation by iteratively denoising a complete program conditioned on the encoded natural language. We evaluate CodeFusion on the task of natural language to code generation for Bash, Python, and Microsoft Excel conditional formatting (CF) rules. Experiments show that CodeFusion (75M parameters) performs on par with state-of-the-art auto-regressive systems (350M-175B parameters) in top-1 accuracy and outperforms them in top-3 and top-5 accuracy due to its better balance in diversity versus quality.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show significant potential in economic and strategic interactions, where communication via natural language is often prevalent. This raises key questions: Do LLMs behave rationally? Can they mimic human behavior? Do they tend to reach an efficient and fair outcome? What is the role of natural language in the strategic interaction? How do characteristics of the economic environment influence these dynamics? These questions become crucial concerning the economic and societal implications of integrating LLM-based agents into real-world data-driven systems, such as online retail platforms and recommender systems. While the ML community has been exploring the potential of LLMs in such multi-agent setups, varying assumptions, design choices and evaluation criteria across studies make it difficult to draw robust and meaningful conclusions. To address this, we introduce a benchmark for standardizing research on two-player, sequential, language-based games. Inspired by the economic literature, we define three base families of games with consistent parameterization, degrees of freedom and economic measures to evaluate agents' performance (self-gain), as well as the game outcome (efficiency and fairness). We develop an open-source framework for interaction simulation and analysis, and utilize it to collect a dataset of LLM vs. LLM interactions across numerous game configurations and an additional dataset of human vs. LLM interactions. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate how our framework and dataset can be used to: (i) compare the behavior of LLM-based agents to human players in various economic contexts; (ii) evaluate agents in both individual and collective performance measures; and (iii) quantify the effect of the economic characteristics of the environments on the behavior of agents.

The analytical description of charts is an exciting and important research area with many applications in academia and industry. Yet, this challenging task has received limited attention from the computational linguistics research community. This paper proposes AutoChart, a large dataset for the analytical description of charts, which aims to encourage more research into this important area. Specifically, we offer a novel framework that generates the charts and their analytical description automatically. We conducted extensive human and machine evaluations on the generated charts and descriptions and demonstrate that the generated texts are informative, coherent, and relevant to the corresponding charts.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

The wide accessibility of social media has provided linguistically under-represented communities with an extraordinary opportunity to create content in their native languages. This, however, comes with certain challenges in script normalization, particularly where the speakers of a language in a bilingual community rely on another script or orthography to write their native language. This paper addresses the problem of script normalization for several such languages that are mainly written in a Perso-Arabic script. Using synthetic data with various levels of noise and a transformer-based model, we demonstrate that the problem can be effectively remediated. We conduct a small-scale evaluation of real data as well. Our experiments indicate that script normalization is also beneficial to improve the performance of downstream tasks such as machine translation and language identification.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

In this paper, we introduce EconLogicQA, a rigorous benchmark designed to assess the sequential reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) within the intricate realms of economics, business, and supply chain management. Diverging from traditional benchmarks that predict subsequent events individually, EconLogicQA poses a more challenging task: it requires models to discern and sequence multiple interconnected events, capturing the complexity of economic logics. EconLogicQA comprises an array of multi-event scenarios derived from economic articles, which necessitate an insightful understanding of both temporal and logical event relationships. Through comprehensive evaluations, we exhibit that EconLogicQA effectively gauges a LLM's proficiency in navigating the sequential complexities inherent in economic contexts. We provide a detailed description of EconLogicQA dataset and shows the outcomes from evaluating the benchmark across various leading-edge LLMs, thereby offering a thorough perspective on their sequential reasoning potential in economic contexts. Our benchmark dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/yinzhu-quan/econ_logic_qa.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools in artificial intelligence (AI), exhibiting remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks such as text generation, reasoning, and decision-making. While their success has primarily been driven by advances in computational power and deep learning architectures, emerging problems -- in areas such as uncertainty quantification, decision-making, causal inference, and distribution shift -- require a deeper engagement with the field of statistics. This paper explores potential areas where statisticians can make important contributions to the development of LLMs, particularly those that aim to engender trustworthiness and transparency for human users. Thus, we focus on issues such as uncertainty quantification, interpretability, fairness, privacy, watermarking and model adaptation. We also consider possible roles for LLMs in statistical analysis. By bridging AI and statistics, we aim to foster a deeper collaboration that advances both the theoretical foundations and practical applications of LLMs, ultimately shaping their role in addressing complex societal challenges.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Most popular benchmarks for comparing LLMs rely on a limited set of prompt templates, which may not fully capture the LLMs' abilities and can affect the reproducibility of results on leaderboards. Many recent works empirically verify prompt sensitivity and advocate for changes in LLM evaluation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the performance distribution across many prompt variants instead of finding a single prompt to evaluate with. We introduce PromptEval, a method for estimating performance across a large set of prompts borrowing strength across prompts and examples to produce accurate estimates under practical evaluation budgets. The resulting distribution can be used to obtain performance quantiles to construct various robust performance metrics (e.g., top 95% quantile or median). We prove that PromptEval consistently estimates the performance distribution and demonstrate its efficacy empirically on three prominent LLM benchmarks: MMLU, BIG-bench Hard, and LMentry. For example, PromptEval can accurately estimate performance quantiles across 100 prompt templates on MMLU with a budget equivalent to two single-prompt evaluations. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/felipemaiapolo/prompt-eval.

Text-to-SQL, the task of translating natural language questions into SQL queries, is part of various business processes. Its automation, which is an emerging challenge, will empower software practitioners to seamlessly interact with relational databases using natural language, thereby bridging the gap between business needs and software capabilities. In this paper, we consider Large Language Models (LLMs), which have achieved state of the art for various NLP tasks. Specifically, we benchmark Text-to-SQL performance, the evaluation methodologies, as well as input optimization (e.g., prompting). In light of the empirical observations that we have made, we propose two novel metrics that were designed to adequately measure the similarity between SQL queries. Overall, we share with the community various findings, notably on how to select the right LLM on Text-to-SQL tasks. We further demonstrate that a tree-based edit distance constitutes a reliable metric for assessing the similarity between generated SQL queries and the oracle for benchmarking Text2SQL approaches. This metric is important as it relieves researchers from the need to perform computationally expensive experiments such as executing generated queries as done in prior works. Our work implements financial domain use cases and, therefore contributes to the advancement of Text2SQL systems and their practical adoption in this domain.

Autoformalization, the conversion of natural language mathematics into formal languages, offers significant potential for advancing mathematical reasoning. However, existing efforts are limited to formal languages with substantial online corpora and struggle to keep pace with rapidly evolving languages like Lean 4. To bridge this gap, we propose a new benchmark Formalization for Lean~4 (\name) designed to evaluate the autoformalization capabilities of large language models (LLMs). This benchmark encompasses a comprehensive assessment of questions, answers, formal statements, and proofs. Additionally, we introduce a Process-Supervised Verifier (PSV) model that leverages the precise feedback from Lean 4 compilers to enhance autoformalization. Our experiments demonstrate that the PSV method improves autoformalization, enabling higher accuracy using less filtered training data. Furthermore, when fine-tuned with data containing detailed process information, PSV can leverage the data more effectively, leading to more significant improvements in autoformalization for Lean 4. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/rookie-joe/PDA.

We introduce GPT-NeoX-20B, a 20 billion parameter autoregressive language model trained on the Pile, whose weights will be made freely and openly available to the public through a permissive license. It is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest dense autoregressive model that has publicly available weights at the time of submission. In this work, we describe 's architecture and training and evaluate its performance on a range of language-understanding, mathematics, and knowledge-based tasks. We find that GPT-NeoX-20B is a particularly powerful few-shot reasoner and gains far more in performance when evaluated five-shot than similarly sized GPT-3 and FairSeq models. We open-source the training and evaluation code, as well as the model weights, at https://github.com/EleutherAI/gpt-neox.

We introduce Codex, a GPT language model fine-tuned on publicly available code from GitHub, and study its Python code-writing capabilities. A distinct production version of Codex powers GitHub Copilot. On HumanEval, a new evaluation set we release to measure functional correctness for synthesizing programs from docstrings, our model solves 28.8% of the problems, while GPT-3 solves 0% and GPT-J solves 11.4%. Furthermore, we find that repeated sampling from the model is a surprisingly effective strategy for producing working solutions to difficult prompts. Using this method, we solve 70.2% of our problems with 100 samples per problem. Careful investigation of our model reveals its limitations, including difficulty with docstrings describing long chains of operations and with binding operations to variables. Finally, we discuss the potential broader impacts of deploying powerful code generation technologies, covering safety, security, and economics.

Spreadsheets are widely used for table manipulation and presentation. Stylistic formatting of these tables is an important property for both presentation and analysis. As a result, popular spreadsheet software, such as Excel, supports automatically formatting tables based on rules. Unfortunately, writing such formatting rules can be challenging for users as it requires knowledge of the underlying rule language and data logic. We present CORNET, a system that tackles the novel problem of automatically learning such formatting rules from user examples in the form of formatted cells. CORNET takes inspiration from advances in inductive programming and combines symbolic rule enumeration with a neural ranker to learn conditional formatting rules. To motivate and evaluate our approach, we extracted tables with over 450K unique formatting rules from a corpus of over 1.8M real worksheets. Since we are the first to introduce conditional formatting, we compare CORNET to a wide range of symbolic and neural baselines adapted from related domains. Our results show that CORNET accurately learns rules across varying evaluation setups. Additionally, we show that CORNET finds shorter rules than those that a user has written and discovers rules in spreadsheets that users have manually formatted.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

This report overviews our ongoing work in enriching chain-of-thoughts datasets requiring arithmetical reasoning with the integration of non-parametric components, such as a calculator. We conduct an analysis of prominent relevant datasets such as GSM8K, Ape210K, AQuA-RAT, and MathQA and propose a machine-processable HTML-like format specifically tailored for working with semi-structured chains. By converting the datasets into this unified format, we enable the effective integration of large language models and symbolic systems, empowering them to tackle arithmetical reasoning tasks more efficiently.

Prompt engineering has emerged as a powerful technique for optimizing large language models (LLMs) for specific applications, enabling faster prototyping and improved performance, and giving rise to the interest of the community in protecting proprietary system prompts. In this work, we explore a novel perspective on prompt privacy through the lens of membership inference. We develop Prompt Detective, a statistical method to reliably determine whether a given system prompt was used by a third-party language model. Our approach relies on a statistical test comparing the distributions of two groups of model outputs corresponding to different system prompts. Through extensive experiments with a variety of language models, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Prompt Detective for prompt membership inference. Our work reveals that even minor changes in system prompts manifest in distinct response distributions, enabling us to verify prompt usage with statistical significance.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

This study explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into classic inflation nowcasting frameworks, particularly in light of high inflation volatility periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose InflaBERT, a BERT-based LLM fine-tuned to predict inflation-related sentiment in news. We use this model to produce NEWS, an index capturing the monthly sentiment of the news regarding inflation. Incorporating our expectation index into the Cleveland Fed's model, which is only based on macroeconomic autoregressive processes, shows a marginal improvement in nowcast accuracy during the pandemic. This highlights the potential of combining sentiment analysis with traditional economic indicators, suggesting further research to refine these methodologies for better real-time inflation monitoring. The source code is available at https://github.com/paultltc/InflaBERT.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

High-quality, large-scale corpora are the cornerstone of building foundation models. In this work, we introduce MathPile, a diverse and high-quality math-centric corpus comprising about 9.5 billion tokens. Throughout its creation, we adhered to the principle of ``less is more'', firmly believing in the supremacy of data quality over quantity, even in the pre-training phase. Our meticulous data collection and processing efforts included a complex suite of preprocessing, prefiltering, language identification, cleaning, filtering, and deduplication, ensuring the high quality of our corpus. Furthermore, we performed data contamination detection on downstream benchmark test sets to eliminate duplicates. We hope our MathPile can help to enhance the mathematical reasoning abilities of language models. We plan to open-source different versions of \mathpile with the scripts used for processing, to facilitate future developments in this field.

Spreadsheets are widely recognized as the most popular end-user programming tools, which blend the power of formula-based computation, with an intuitive table-based interface. Today, spreadsheets are used by billions of users to manipulate tables, most of whom are neither database experts nor professional programmers. Despite the success of spreadsheets, authoring complex formulas remains challenging, as non-technical users need to look up and understand non-trivial formula syntax. To address this pain point, we leverage the observation that there is often an abundance of similar-looking spreadsheets in the same organization, which not only have similar data, but also share similar computation logic encoded as formulas. We develop an Auto-Formula system that can accurately predict formulas that users want to author in a target spreadsheet cell, by learning and adapting formulas that already exist in similar spreadsheets, using contrastive-learning techniques inspired by "similar-face recognition" from compute vision. Extensive evaluations on over 2K test formulas extracted from real enterprise spreadsheets show the effectiveness of Auto-Formula over alternatives. Our benchmark data is available at https://github.com/microsoft/Auto-Formula to facilitate future research.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

High-quality conversational datasets are integral to the successful development of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) that employ a Large Language Model (LLM) backend. These datasets, when used to fine-tune the LLM backend, significantly enhance the quality of interactions between students and ITS. A common strategy for developing these datasets involves generating synthetic student-teacher dialogues using advanced GPT-4 models. However, challenges arise when these dialogues demand complex calculations, common in subjects like physics. Despite its advanced capabilities, GPT-4's performance falls short in reliably handling even simple multiplication tasks, marking a significant limitation in its utility for these subjects. To address these challenges, this paper introduces an innovative stateful prompt design. Our approach generates a mock conversation between a student and a tutorbot, both roles simulated by GPT-4. Each student response triggers a soliloquy (an inner monologue) in the GPT-tutorbot, which assesses whether its response would necessitate calculations. If so, it proceeds to script the required code in Python and then uses the resulting output to construct its response to the student. Our approach notably enhances the quality of synthetic conversation datasets, especially for subjects that are calculation-intensive. Our findings show that our Higgs model -- a LLaMA finetuned with datasets generated through our novel stateful prompt design -- proficiently utilizes Python for computations. Consequently, finetuning with our datasets enriched with code soliloquies enhances not just the accuracy but also the computational reliability of Higgs' responses.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) plays a crucial role in reasoning for math problem solving. We conduct a comprehensive examination of methods for designing CoT, comparing conventional natural language CoT with various program CoTs, including the self-describing program, the comment-describing program, and the non-describing program. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of programming language on program CoTs, comparing Python and Wolfram Language. Through extensive experiments on GSM8K, MATHQA, and SVAMP, we find that program CoTs often have superior effectiveness in math problem solving. Notably, the best performing combination with 30B parameters beats GPT-3.5-turbo by a significant margin. The results show that self-describing program offers greater diversity and thus can generally achieve higher performance. We also find that Python is a better choice of language than Wolfram for program CoTs. The experimental results provide a valuable guideline for future CoT designs that take into account both programming language and coding style for further advancements. Our datasets and code are publicly available.

Despite widespread speculation about artificial intelligence's impact on the future of work, we lack systematic empirical evidence about how these systems are actually being used for different tasks. Here, we present a novel framework for measuring AI usage patterns across the economy. We leverage a recent privacy-preserving system to analyze over four million Claude.ai conversations through the lens of tasks and occupations in the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET Database. Our analysis reveals that AI usage primarily concentrates in software development and writing tasks, which together account for nearly half of all total usage. However, usage of AI extends more broadly across the economy, with approximately 36% of occupations using AI for at least a quarter of their associated tasks. We also analyze how AI is being used for tasks, finding 57% of usage suggests augmentation of human capabilities (e.g., learning or iterating on an output) while 43% suggests automation (e.g., fulfilling a request with minimal human involvement). While our data and methods face important limitations and only paint a picture of AI usage on a single platform, they provide an automated, granular approach for tracking AI's evolving role in the economy and identifying leading indicators of future impact as these technologies continue to advance.

The advancements of language language models (LLMs) have piqued growing interest in developing LLM-based language agents to automate scientific discovery end-to-end, which has sparked both excitement and skepticism about the true capabilities of such agents. In this work, we argue that for an agent to fully automate scientific discovery, it must be able to complete all essential tasks in the workflow. Thus, we call for rigorous assessment of agents on individual tasks in a scientific workflow before making bold claims on end-to-end automation. To this end, we present ScienceAgentBench, a new benchmark for evaluating language agents for data-driven scientific discovery. To ensure the scientific authenticity and real-world relevance of our benchmark, we extract 102 tasks from 44 peer-reviewed publications in four disciplines and engage nine subject matter experts to validate them. We unify the target output for every task to a self-contained Python program file and employ an array of evaluation metrics to examine the generated programs, execution results, and costs. Each task goes through multiple rounds of manual validation by annotators and subject matter experts to ensure its annotation quality and scientific plausibility. We also propose two effective strategies to mitigate data contamination concerns. Using our benchmark, we evaluate five open-weight and proprietary LLMs, each with three frameworks: direct prompting, OpenHands, and self-debug. Given three attempts for each task, the best-performing agent can only solve 32.4% of the tasks independently and 34.3% with expert-provided knowledge. These results underscore the limited capacities of current language agents in generating code for data-driven discovery, let alone end-to-end automation for scientific research.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

The increasing adoption of econometric and machine-learning approaches by empirical researchers has led to a widespread use of one data collection method: web scraping. Web scraping refers to the use of automated computer programs to access websites and download their content. The key argument of this paper is that na\"ive web scraping procedures can lead to sampling bias in the collected data. This article describes three sources of sampling bias in web-scraped data. More specifically, sampling bias emerges from web content being volatile (i.e., being subject to change), personalized (i.e., presented in response to request characteristics), and unindexed (i.e., abundance of a population register). In a series of examples, I illustrate the prevalence and magnitude of sampling bias. To support researchers and reviewers, this paper provides recommendations on anticipating, detecting, and overcoming sampling bias in web-scraped data.

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

To improve language models' proficiency in mathematical reasoning via continual pretraining, we introduce a novel strategy that leverages base language models for autonomous data selection. Departing from conventional supervised fine-tuning or trained classifiers with human-annotated data, our approach utilizes meta-prompted language models as zero-shot verifiers to autonomously evaluate and select high-quality mathematical content, and we release the curated open-source AutoMathText dataset encompassing over 200GB of data. To demonstrate the efficacy of our method, we continuously pretrained a 7B-parameter Mistral language model on the AutoMathText dataset, achieving substantial improvements in downstream performance on the MATH dataset with a token amount reduced by orders of magnitude compared to previous continuous pretraining works. Our method showcases a 2 times increase in pretraining token efficiency compared to baselines, underscoring the potential of our approach in enhancing models' mathematical reasoning capabilities. The AutoMathText dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/math-ai/AutoMathText. The code is available at https://github.com/yifanzhang-pro/AutoMathText.

This paper introduces the human-curated PandasPlotBench dataset, designed to evaluate language models' effectiveness as assistants in visual data exploration. Our benchmark focuses on generating code for visualizing tabular data - such as a Pandas DataFrame - based on natural language instructions, complementing current evaluation tools and expanding their scope. The dataset includes 175 unique tasks. Our experiments assess several leading Large Language Models (LLMs) across three visualization libraries: Matplotlib, Seaborn, and Plotly. We show that the shortening of tasks has a minimal effect on plotting capabilities, allowing for the user interface that accommodates concise user input without sacrificing functionality or accuracy. Another of our findings reveals that while LLMs perform well with popular libraries like Matplotlib and Seaborn, challenges persist with Plotly, highlighting areas for improvement. We hope that the modular design of our benchmark will broaden the current studies on generating visualizations. Our benchmark is available online: https://huggingface.co/datasets/JetBrains-Research/plot_bench. The code for running the benchmark is also available: https://github.com/JetBrains-Research/PandasPlotBench.

A lot of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) research is of an empirical nature. Nevertheless, statistical significance testing (SST) is still not widely used. This endangers true progress, as seeming improvements over a baseline might be statistical flukes, leading follow-up research astray while wasting human and computational resources. Here, we provide an easy-to-use package containing different significance tests and utility functions specifically tailored towards research needs and usability.

In today's software world with its cornucopia of reusable software libraries, when a programmer is faced with a programming task that they suspect can be completed through the use of a library, they often look for code examples using a search engine and then manually adapt found examples to their specific context of use. We put forward a vision based on a new breed of developer tools that have the potential to largely automate this process. The key idea is to adapt code autocompletion tools such that they take into account not only the developer's already-written code but also the intent of the task the developer is trying to achieve next, formulated in plain natural language. We call this practice of enriching the code with natural language intent to facilitate its completion natural language-guided programming. To show that this idea is feasible we design, implement and benchmark a tool that solves this problem in the context of a specific domain (data science) and a specific programming language (Python). Central to the tool is the use of language models trained on a large corpus of documented code. Our initial experiments confirm the feasibility of the idea but also make it clear that we have only scratched the surface of what may become possible in the future. We end the paper with a comprehensive research agenda to stimulate additional research in the budding area of natural language-guided programming.

TypeScript and Python are two programming languages that support optional type annotations, which are useful but tedious to introduce and maintain. This has motivated automated type prediction: given an untyped program, produce a well-typed output program. Large language models (LLMs) are promising for type prediction, but there are challenges: fill-in-the-middle performs poorly, programs may not fit into the context window, generated types may not type check, and it is difficult to measure how well-typed the output program is. We address these challenges by building OpenTau, a search-based approach for type prediction that leverages large language models. We propose a new metric for type prediction quality, give a tree-based program decomposition that searches a space of generated types, and present fill-in-the-type fine-tuning for LLMs. We evaluate our work with a new dataset for TypeScript type prediction, and show that 47.4% of files type check (14.5% absolute improvement) with an overall rate of 3.3 type errors per file. All code, data, and models are available at: https://github.com/GammaTauAI/opentau.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for automatic time series analysis and reporting, which is a critical task across many domains, spanning healthcare, finance, climate, energy, and many more. In this paper, we propose a framework for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of LLMs on time series understanding, encompassing both univariate and multivariate forms. We introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of time series features, a critical framework that delineates various characteristics inherent in time series data. Leveraging this taxonomy, we have systematically designed and synthesized a diverse dataset of time series, embodying the different outlined features. This dataset acts as a solid foundation for assessing the proficiency of LLMs in comprehending time series. Our experiments shed light on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art LLMs in time series understanding, revealing which features these models readily comprehend effectively and where they falter. In addition, we uncover the sensitivity of LLMs to factors including the formatting of the data, the position of points queried within a series and the overall time series length.

Assessing the capabilities of large multimodal models (LMMs) often requires the creation of ad-hoc evaluations. Currently, building new benchmarks requires tremendous amounts of manual work for each specific analysis. This makes the evaluation process tedious and costly. In this paper, we present APEx, Automatic Programming of Experiments, the first framework for automatic benchmarking of LMMs. Given a research question expressed in natural language, APEx leverages a large language model (LLM) and a library of pre-specified tools to generate a set of experiments for the model at hand, and progressively compile a scientific report. The report drives the testing procedure: based on the current status of the investigation, APEx chooses which experiments to perform and whether the results are sufficient to draw conclusions. Finally, the LLM refines the report, presenting the results to the user in natural language. Thanks to its modularity, our framework is flexible and extensible as new tools become available. Empirically, APEx reproduces the findings of existing studies while allowing for arbitrary analyses and hypothesis testing.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

We develop tools for explicitly constructing categories enriched over generating data and that compose via ordinary scalar and matrix arithmetic arithmetic operations. We characterize meaningful size maps, weightings, and magnitude that reveal features analogous to outliers that these same notions have previously been shown to reveal in the context of metric spaces. Throughout, we provide examples of such "outlier detection" relevant to the analysis of computer programs, neural networks, cyber-physical systems, and networks of communications channels.

Large language models have been successfully applied to programming assistance tasks, such as code completion, code insertion, and instructional code editing. However, these applications remain insufficiently automated and struggle to effectively integrate various types of information during the programming process, including coding history, current code, and user instructions. In this work, we propose a new conversational framework that comprehensively integrates these information sources, collect data to train our models and evaluate their performance. Firstly, to thoroughly evaluate how well models align with different types of information and the quality of their outputs, we introduce a new benchmark, APEval (Assist Programming Eval), to comprehensively assess the performance of models in programming assistance tasks. Then, for data collection, we develop a data generation pipeline, Programming-Instruct, which synthesizes training data from diverse sources, such as GitHub and online judge platforms. This pipeline can automatically generate various types of messages throughout the programming process. Finally, using this pipeline, we generate 219K samples, fine-tune multiple models, and develop the CursorCore series. We show that CursorCore outperforms other models of comparable size. This framework unifies applications such as inline chat and automated editing, contributes to the advancement of coding assistants. Code, models and data are freely available at https://github.com/TechxGenus/CursorCore.

Over the past few years, Large Language Models of Code (Code LLMs) have started to have a significant impact on programming practice. Code LLMs are also emerging as a building block for research in programming languages and software engineering. However, the quality of code produced by a Code LLM varies significantly by programming languages. Code LLMs produce impressive results on programming languages that are well represented in their training data (e.g., Java, Python, or JavaScript), but struggle with low-resource languages, like OCaml and Racket. This paper presents an effective approach for boosting the performance of Code LLMs on low-resource languages using semi-synthetic data. Our approach generates high-quality datasets for low-resource languages, which can then be used to fine-tune any pretrained Code LLM. Our approach, called MultiPL-T, translates training data from high-resource languages into training data for low-resource languages. We apply our approach to generate tens of thousands of new, validated training items for Racket, OCaml, and Lua from Python. Moreover, we use an open dataset (The Stack) and model (StarCoderBase), which allow us to decontaminate benchmarks and train models on this data without violating the model license. With MultiPL-T generated data, we present fine-tuned versions of StarCoderBase that achieve state-of-the-art performance for Racket, OCaml, and Lua on benchmark problems. For Lua, our fine-tuned model achieves the same performance as StarCoderBase as Python -- a very high-resource language -- on the MultiPL-E benchmarks. For Racket and OCaml, we double their performance on MultiPL-E, bringing their performance close to higher-resource languages such as Ruby and C#.

Scientific data visualization is pivotal for transforming raw data into comprehensible visual representations, enabling pattern recognition, forecasting, and the presentation of data-driven insights. However, novice users often face difficulties due to the complexity of selecting appropriate tools and mastering visualization techniques. Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated potential in assisting code generation, though they struggle with accuracy and require iterative debugging. In this paper, we propose PlotGen, a novel multi-agent framework aimed at automating the creation of precise scientific visualizations. PlotGen orchestrates multiple LLM-based agents, including a Query Planning Agent that breaks down complex user requests into executable steps, a Code Generation Agent that converts pseudocode into executable Python code, and three retrieval feedback agents - a Numeric Feedback Agent, a Lexical Feedback Agent, and a Visual Feedback Agent - that leverage multimodal LLMs to iteratively refine the data accuracy, textual labels, and visual correctness of generated plots via self-reflection. Extensive experiments show that PlotGen outperforms strong baselines, achieving a 4-6 percent improvement on the MatPlotBench dataset, leading to enhanced user trust in LLM-generated visualizations and improved novice productivity due to a reduction in debugging time needed for plot errors.

Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, and availability of high-performance hardware has made it possible to process and analyze high volume stock market time series data effectively, in real-time. Among many other important characteristics and behavior of such data, forecasting is an area which has witnessed considerable focus. In this work, we have used time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the trend, the seasonal component, and the random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed five approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed decomposition approaches of time series and the efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a random component and a sharply changing trend component in the time-series.

The objective of pre-trained language models is to learn contextual representations of textual data. Pre-trained language models have become mainstream in natural language processing and code modeling. Using probes, a technique to study the linguistic properties of hidden vector spaces, previous works have shown that these pre-trained language models encode simple linguistic properties in their hidden representations. However, none of the previous work assessed whether these models encode the whole grammatical structure of a programming language. In this paper, we prove the existence of a syntactic subspace, lying in the hidden representations of pre-trained language models, which contain the syntactic information of the programming language. We show that this subspace can be extracted from the models' representations and define a novel probing method, the AST-Probe, that enables recovering the whole abstract syntax tree (AST) of an input code snippet. In our experimentations, we show that this syntactic subspace exists in five state-of-the-art pre-trained language models. In addition, we highlight that the middle layers of the models are the ones that encode most of the AST information. Finally, we estimate the optimal size of this syntactic subspace and show that its dimension is substantially lower than those of the models' representation spaces. This suggests that pre-trained language models use a small part of their representation spaces to encode syntactic information of the programming languages.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

We evaluate AI-assisted generative capabilities on fundamental numerical kernels in high-performance computing (HPC), including AXPY, GEMV, GEMM, SpMV, Jacobi Stencil, and CG. We test the generated kernel codes for a variety of language-supported programming models, including (1) C++ (e.g., OpenMP [including offload], OpenACC, Kokkos, SyCL, CUDA, and HIP), (2) Fortran (e.g., OpenMP [including offload] and OpenACC), (3) Python (e.g., numba, Numba, cuPy, and pyCUDA), and (4) Julia (e.g., Threads, CUDA.jl, AMDGPU.jl, and KernelAbstractions.jl). We use the GitHub Copilot capabilities powered by OpenAI Codex available in Visual Studio Code as of April 2023 to generate a vast amount of implementations given simple <kernel> + <programming model> + <optional hints> prompt variants. To quantify and compare the results, we propose a proficiency metric around the initial 10 suggestions given for each prompt. Results suggest that the OpenAI Codex outputs for C++ correlate with the adoption and maturity of programming models. For example, OpenMP and CUDA score really high, whereas HIP is still lacking. We found that prompts from either a targeted language such as Fortran or the more general-purpose Python can benefit from adding code keywords, while Julia prompts perform acceptably well for its mature programming models (e.g., Threads and CUDA.jl). We expect for these benchmarks to provide a point of reference for each programming model's community. Overall, understanding the convergence of large language models, AI, and HPC is crucial due to its rapidly evolving nature and how it is redefining human-computer interactions.

This paper presents fairseq S^2, a fairseq extension for speech synthesis. We implement a number of autoregressive (AR) and non-AR text-to-speech models, and their multi-speaker variants. To enable training speech synthesis models with less curated data, a number of preprocessing tools are built and their importance is shown empirically. To facilitate faster iteration of development and analysis, a suite of automatic metrics is included. Apart from the features added specifically for this extension, fairseq S^2 also benefits from the scalability offered by fairseq and can be easily integrated with other state-of-the-art systems provided in this framework. The code, documentation, and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/pytorch/fairseq/tree/master/examples/speech_synthesis.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 promise automation with better results and less programming, opening up new opportunities for text analysis in political science. In this study, we evaluate LLMs on three original coding tasks involving typical complexities encountered in political science settings: a non-English language, legal and political jargon, and complex labels based on abstract constructs. Along the paper, we propose a practical workflow to optimize the choice of the model and the prompt. We find that the best prompting strategy consists of providing the LLMs with a detailed codebook, as the one provided to human coders. In this setting, an LLM can be as good as or possibly better than a human annotator while being much faster, considerably cheaper, and much easier to scale to large amounts of text. We also provide a comparison of GPT and popular open-source LLMs, discussing the trade-offs in the model's choice. Our software allows LLMs to be easily used as annotators and is publicly available: https://github.com/lorelupo/pappa.

Language models can serve as a valuable tool for software developers to increase productivity. Large generative models can be used for code generation and code completion, while smaller encoder-only models are capable of performing code search tasks using natural language queries.These capabilities are heavily influenced by the quality and diversity of the available training data. Source code datasets used for training usually focus on the most popular languages and testing is mostly conducted on the same distributions, often overlooking low-resource programming languages. Motivated by the NLP generalization taxonomy proposed by Hupkes et.\,al., we propose a new benchmark dataset called GenCodeSearchNet (GeCS) which builds upon existing natural language code search datasets to systemically evaluate the programming language understanding generalization capabilities of language models. As part of the full dataset, we introduce a new, manually curated subset StatCodeSearch that focuses on R, a popular but so far underrepresented programming language that is often used by researchers outside the field of computer science. For evaluation and comparison, we collect several baseline results using fine-tuned BERT-style models and GPT-style large language models in a zero-shot setting.

A fundamental skill among human developers is the ability to understand and reason about program execution. As an example, a programmer can mentally simulate code execution in natural language to debug and repair code (aka. rubber duck debugging). However, large language models (LLMs) of code are typically trained on the surface textual form of programs, thus may lack a semantic understanding of how programs execute at run-time. To address this issue, we propose NExT, a method to teach LLMs to inspect the execution traces of programs (variable states of executed lines) and reason about their run-time behavior through chain-of-thought (CoT) rationales. Specifically, NExT uses self-training to bootstrap a synthetic training set of execution-aware rationales that lead to correct task solutions (e.g., fixed programs) without laborious manual annotation. Experiments on program repair tasks based on MBPP and HumanEval demonstrate that NExT improves the fix rate of a PaLM 2 model, by 26.1% and 14.3% absolute, respectively, with significantly improved rationale quality as verified by automated metrics and human raters. Our model can also generalize to scenarios where program traces are absent at test-time.

Recent breakthroughs in large language modeling have facilitated rigorous exploration of their application in diverse tasks related to tabular data modeling, such as prediction, tabular data synthesis, question answering, and table understanding. Each task presents unique challenges and opportunities. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive review that summarizes and compares the key techniques, metrics, datasets, models, and optimization approaches in this research domain. This survey aims to address this gap by consolidating recent progress in these areas, offering a thorough survey and taxonomy of the datasets, metrics, and methodologies utilized. It identifies strengths, limitations, unexplored territories, and gaps in the existing literature, while providing some insights for future research directions in this vital and rapidly evolving field. It also provides relevant code and datasets references. Through this comprehensive review, we hope to provide interested readers with pertinent references and insightful perspectives, empowering them with the necessary tools and knowledge to effectively navigate and address the prevailing challenges in the field.

We introduce a large language model (LLM) based approach to answer complex questions requiring multi-hop numerical reasoning over financial reports. While LLMs have exhibited remarkable performance on various natural language and reasoning tasks, complex reasoning problems often rely on few-shot prompts that require carefully crafted examples. In contrast, our approach uses novel zero-shot prompts that guide the LLM to encode the required reasoning into a Python program or a domain specific language. The generated program is then executed by a program interpreter, thus mitigating the limitations of LLM in performing accurate arithmetic calculations. We evaluate the proposed approach on three financial datasets using some of the recently developed generative pretrained transformer (GPT) models and perform comparisons with various zero-shot baselines. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the accuracy for all the LLMs over their respective baselines. We provide a detailed analysis of the results, generating insights to support our findings. The success of our approach demonstrates the enormous potential to extract complex domain specific numerical reasoning by designing zero-shot prompts to effectively exploit the knowledge embedded in LLMs.

Spreadsheets are a vital tool for end-user data management. Using large language models for formula authoring assistance in these environments can be difficult, as these models are expensive to train and challenging to deploy due to their size (up to billions of parameters). We present FLAME, a transformer-based model trained exclusively on Excel formulas that leverages domain insights to achieve competitive performance while being substantially smaller (60M parameters) and training on two orders of magnitude less data. We curate a training dataset using sketch deduplication, introduce an Excel-specific formula tokenizer, and use domain-specific versions of masked span prediction and noisy auto-encoding as pre-training objectives. We evaluate FLAME on formula repair, formula completion, and similarity-based formula retrieval. FLAME can outperform much larger models, such as the Davinci (175B) and Cushman (12B) variants of Codex and CodeT5 (220M), in 10 of 14 evaluation settings for the repair and completion tasks. For formula retrieval, FLAME outperforms CodeT5, CodeBERT, and GraphCodeBERT.

The principles of automation and innovation serve as foundational elements for advancement in contemporary science and technology. Here, we introduce Pygen, an automation platform designed to empower researchers, technologists, and hobbyists to bring abstract ideas to life as core, usable software tools written in Python. Pygen leverages the immense power of autoregressive large language models to augment human creativity during the ideation, iteration, and innovation process. By combining state-of-the-art language models with open-source code generation technologies, Pygen has significantly reduced the manual overhead of tool development. From a user prompt, Pygen automatically generates Python packages for a complete workflow from concept to package generation and documentation. The findings of our work show that Pygen considerably enhances the researcher's productivity by enabling the creation of resilient, modular, and well-documented packages for various specialized purposes. We employ a prompt enhancement approach to distill the user's package description into increasingly specific and actionable. While being inherently an open-ended task, we have evaluated the generated packages and the documentation using Human Evaluation, LLM-based evaluation, and CodeBLEU, with detailed results in the results section. Furthermore, we documented our results, analyzed the limitations, and suggested strategies to alleviate them. Pygen is our vision of ethical automation, a framework that promotes inclusivity, accessibility, and collaborative development. This project marks the beginning of a large-scale effort towards creating tools where intelligent agents collaborate with humans to improve scientific and technological development substantially. Our code and generated examples are open-sourced at [https://github.com/GitsSaikat/Pygen]

Prompt engineering is a challenging and important task due to the high sensitivity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to the given prompt and the inherent ambiguity of a textual task instruction. Automatic prompt engineering is essential to achieve optimized performance from LLMs. Recent studies have demonstrated the capabilities of LLMs to automatically conduct prompt engineering by employing a meta-prompt that incorporates the outcomes of the last trials and proposes an improved prompt. However, this requires a high-quality benchmark to compare different prompts, which is difficult and expensive to acquire in many real-world use cases. In this work, we introduce a new method for automatic prompt engineering, using a calibration process that iteratively refines the prompt to the user intent. During the optimization process, the system jointly generates synthetic data of boundary use cases and optimizes the prompt according to the generated dataset. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with respect to strong proprietary models on real-world tasks such as moderation and generation. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods with a limited number of annotated samples. Furthermore, we validate the advantages of each one of the system's key components. Our system is built in a modular way, facilitating easy adaptation to other tasks. The code is available https://github.com/Eladlev/AutoPrompt{here}.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated unparalleled prowess in mimicking human-like text generation and processing. Among the myriad of applications that benefit from LLMs, automated code generation is increasingly promising. The potential to transform natural language prompts into executable code promises a major shift in software development practices and paves the way for significant reductions in manual coding efforts and the likelihood of human-induced errors. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluates the performance of various LLMs, such as Bard, ChatGPT-3.5, ChatGPT-4, and Claude-2, in generating Python for coding problems. We focus on how levels of prompt specificity impact the accuracy, time efficiency, and space efficiency of the generated code. A benchmark of 104 coding problems, each with four types of prompts with varying degrees of tests and specificity, was employed to examine these aspects comprehensively. Our results indicate significant variations in performance across different LLMs and prompt types, and its key contribution is to reveal the ideal prompting strategy for creating accurate Python functions. This study lays the groundwork for further research in LLM capabilities and suggests practical implications for utilizing LLMs in automated code generation tasks and test-driven development.

Recent advancements in the field of natural language generation have facilitated the use of large language models to assess the quality of generated text. Although these models have shown promising results in tasks such as machine translation and summarization, their applicability in code generation tasks remains limited without human involvement. The complexity of programming concepts required for such tasks makes it difficult to develop evaluation metrics that align with human judgment. Token-matching-based metrics, such as BLEU, have demonstrated weak correlations with human practitioners in code generation tasks. Moreover, the utilization of human-written test suites to evaluate functional correctness can be challenging in domains with low resources. To overcome these obstacles, we propose a new evaluation framework based on the GPT-3.5 (GPT-3.5-turbo), for code generation assessments. Our framework addresses the limitations of existing approaches by achieving superior correlations with functional correctness and human preferences, without the need for test oracles or references. We evaluate the efficacy of our framework on two different tasks and four programming languages, comparing its performance with the state-of-the-art CodeBERTScore metric, which relies on a pre-trained model. Our results demonstrate that our framework surpasses CodeBERTScore, delivering high levels of accuracy and consistency across various programming languages and tasks. We also make our evaluation framework and datasets available to the public at https://github.com/terryyz/llm-code-eval, encouraging further research in the evaluation of code generation.

Recognizing that traditional forecasting models often rely solely on historical demand, this work investigates the potential of data-driven techniques to automatically select and integrate market indicators for improving customer demand predictions. By adopting an exploratory methodology, we integrate macroeconomic time series, such as national GDP growth, from the Eurostat database into Neural Prophet and SARIMAX forecasting models. Suitable time series are automatically identified through different state-of-the-art feature selection methods and applied to sales data from our industrial partner. It could be shown that forecasts can be significantly enhanced by incorporating external information. Notably, the potential of feature selection methods stands out, especially due to their capability for automation without expert knowledge and manual selection effort. In particular, the Forward Feature Selection technique consistently yielded superior forecasting accuracy for both SARIMAX and Neural Prophet across different company sales datasets. In the comparative analysis of the errors of the selected forecasting models, namely Neural Prophet and SARIMAX, it is observed that neither model demonstrates a significant superiority over the other.

Software engineers mainly write code by editing existing programs. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) autoregressively synthesize programs in a single pass. One explanation for this is the scarcity of open-sourced edit data. While high-quality instruction data for code synthesis is already scarce, high-quality edit data is even scarcer. To fill this gap, we develop a synthetic data generation algorithm called LintSeq. This algorithm refactors existing code into a sequence of code edits by using a linter to procedurally sample across the error-free insertions that can be used to sequentially write programs. It outputs edit sequences as text strings consisting of consecutive program diffs. To test LintSeq, we use it to refactor a dataset of instruction + program pairs into instruction + program-diff-sequence tuples. Then, we instruction finetune a series of smaller LLMs ranging from 2.6B to 14B parameters on both the re-factored and original versions of this dataset, comparing zero-shot performance on code synthesis benchmarks. We show that during repeated sampling, edit sequence finetuned models produce more diverse programs than baselines. This results in better inference-time scaling for benchmark coverage as a function of samples, i.e. the fraction of problems "pass@k" solved by any attempt given "k" tries. For example, on HumanEval pass@50, small LLMs finetuned on synthetic edit sequences are competitive with GPT-4 and outperform models finetuned on the baseline dataset by +20% (+/-3%) in absolute score. Finally, we also pretrain our own tiny LMs for code understanding. We show that finetuning tiny models on synthetic code edits results in state-of-the-art code synthesis for the on-device model class. Our 150M parameter edit sequence LM matches or outperforms code models with twice as many parameters, both with and without repeated sampling, including Codex and AlphaCode.

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to inform policies. Data collected in this article describe international trade transactions and commonly associated economic factors. Machine learning (ML) models deployed include: ARIMA, GBoosting, XGBoosting, and LightGBM for predicting future trade patterns, and K-Means clustering of countries according to economic factors. Unlike short-term and subjective (straight-line) projections and medium-term (aggre-gated) projections, ML methods provide a range of data-driven and interpretable projections for individual commodities. Models, their results, and policies are introduced and evaluated for prediction quality.

We present a new financial domain large language model, InvestLM, tuned on LLaMA-65B (Touvron et al., 2023), using a carefully curated instruction dataset related to financial investment. Inspired by less-is-more-for-alignment (Zhou et al., 2023), we manually curate a small yet diverse instruction dataset, covering a wide range of financial related topics, from Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exam questions to SEC filings to Stackexchange quantitative finance discussions. InvestLM shows strong capabilities in understanding financial text and provides helpful responses to investment related questions. Financial experts, including hedge fund managers and research analysts, rate InvestLM's response as comparable to those of state-of-the-art commercial models (GPT-3.5, GPT-4 and Claude-2). Zero-shot evaluation on a set of financial NLP benchmarks demonstrates strong generalizability. From a research perspective, this work suggests that a high-quality domain specific LLM can be tuned using a small set of carefully curated instructions on a well-trained foundation model, which is consistent with the Superficial Alignment Hypothesis (Zhou et al., 2023). From a practical perspective, this work develops a state-of-the-art financial domain LLM with superior capability in understanding financial texts and providing helpful investment advice, potentially enhancing the work efficiency of financial professionals. We release the model parameters to the research community.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great success in code generation. LLMs take as the input a prompt and output the code. A key question is how to make prompts (i.e., Prompting Techniques). Existing prompting techniques are designed for natural language generation and have low accuracy in code generation. In this paper, we propose a new prompting technique named AceCoder. Our motivation is that code generation meets two unique challenges (i.e., requirement understanding and code implementation). AceCoder contains two novel mechanisms (i.e., guided code generation and example retrieval) to solve these challenges. (1) Guided code generation asks LLMs first to analyze requirements and output an intermediate preliminary (e.g., test cases). The preliminary is used to clarify requirements and tell LLMs "what to write". (2) Example retrieval selects similar programs as examples in prompts, which provide lots of relevant content (e.g., algorithms, APIs) and teach LLMs "how to write". We apply AceCoder to three LLMs (e.g., Codex) and evaluate it on three public benchmarks using the Pass@k. Results show that AceCoder can significantly improve the performance of LLMs on code generation. (1) In terms of Pass@1, AceCoder outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline by up to 56.4% in MBPP, 70.7% in MBJP, and 88.4% in MBJSP. (2) AceCoder is effective in LLMs with different sizes (i.e., 6B to 13B) and different languages (i.e., Python, Java, and JavaScript). (3) Human evaluation shows human developers prefer programs from AceCoder.

Generalization is arguably the most important goal of statistical language modeling research. Publicly available benchmarks and papers published with an open-source code have been critical to advancing the field. However, it is often very difficult, and sometimes even impossible, to reproduce the results fully as reported in publications. In this paper, we propose a simple framework that should help advance the state of the art in language modeling in terms of generalization. We propose to publish not just the code, but also probabilities on dev and test sets with future publications so that one can easily add the new model into an ensemble. This has crucial advantages: it is much easier to determine whether a newly proposed model is actually complementary to the current baseline. Therefore, instead of inventing new names for the old tricks, the scientific community can advance faster. Finally, this approach promotes diversity of ideas: one does not need to create an individual model that is the new state of the art to attract attention; it will be sufficient to develop a new model that learns patterns which other models do not. Thus, even a suboptimal model can be found to have value. Remarkably, our approach has yielded new state-of-the-art results across various language modeling benchmarks up to 10%.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

Using large language models (LLMs) to generate source code from natural language prompts is a popular and promising idea with a wide range of applications. One of its limitations is that the generated code can be faulty at times, often in a subtle way, despite being presented to the user as correct. In this paper, we explore ways in which formal methods can assist with increasing the quality of code generated by an LLM. Instead of emitting code in a target language directly, we propose that the user guides the LLM to first generate an opaque intermediate representation, in the verification-aware language Dafny, that can be automatically validated for correctness against agreed on specifications. The correct Dafny program is then compiled to the target language and returned to the user. All user-system interactions throughout the procedure occur via natural language; Dafny code is never exposed. We describe our current prototype and report on its performance on the HumanEval Python code generation benchmarks.

The rise of capabilities expressed by large language models has been quickly followed by the integration of the same complex systems into application level logic. Algorithms, programs, systems, and companies are built around structured prompting to black box models where the majority of the design and implementation lies in capturing and quantifying the `agent mode'. The standard way to shape a closed language model is to prime it for a specific task with a tailored prompt, often initially handwritten by a human. The textual prompts co-evolve with the codebase, taking shape over the course of project life as artifacts which must be reviewed and maintained, just as the traditional code files might be. Unlike traditional code, we find that prompts do not receive effective static testing and linting to prevent runtime issues. In this work, we present a novel dataset called PromptSet, with more than 61,000 unique developer prompts used in open source Python programs. We perform analysis on this dataset and introduce the notion of a static linter for prompts. Released with this publication is a HuggingFace dataset and a Github repository to recreate collection and processing efforts, both under the name pisterlabs/promptset.

Pre-trained language models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks and domains. Previous research on financial language models usually employs a generic training scheme to train standard model architectures, without completely leveraging the richness of the financial data. We propose a novel domain specific Financial LANGuage model (FLANG) which uses financial keywords and phrases for better masking, together with span boundary objective and in-filing objective. Additionally, the evaluation benchmarks in the field have been limited. To this end, we contribute the Financial Language Understanding Evaluation (FLUE), an open-source comprehensive suite of benchmarks for the financial domain. These include new benchmarks across 5 NLP tasks in financial domain as well as common benchmarks used in the previous research. Experiments on these benchmarks suggest that our model outperforms those in prior literature on a variety of NLP tasks. Our models, code and benchmark data are publicly available on Github and Huggingface.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used by software engineers for code generation. However, limitations of LLMs such as irrelevant or incorrect code have highlighted the need for prompt programming (or prompt engineering) where engineers apply specific prompt techniques (e.g., chain-of-thought or input-output examples) to improve the generated code. Despite this, the impact of different prompt techniques -- and their combinations -- on code generation remains underexplored. In this study, we introduce CodePromptEval, a dataset of 7072 prompts designed to evaluate five prompt techniques (few-shot, persona, chain-of-thought, function signature, list of packages) and their effect on the correctness, similarity, and quality of complete functions generated by three LLMs (GPT-4o, Llama3, and Mistral). Our findings show that while certain prompt techniques significantly influence the generated code, combining multiple techniques does not necessarily improve the outcome. Additionally, we observed a trade-off between correctness and quality when using prompt techniques. Our dataset and replication package enable future research on improving LLM-generated code and evaluating new prompt techniques.

With the advent of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3, a natural question is the extent to which these models can be utilized for source code optimization. This paper presents methodologically stringent case studies applied to well-known open source python libraries pillow and numpy. We find that contemporary LLM ChatGPT-4 (state September and October 2023) is surprisingly adept at optimizing energy and compute efficiency. However, this is only the case in interactive use, with a human expert in the loop. Aware of experimenter bias, we document our qualitative approach in detail, and provide transcript and source code. We start by providing a detailed description of our approach in conversing with the LLM to optimize the _getextrema function in the pillow library, and a quantitative evaluation of the performance improvement. To demonstrate qualitative replicability, we report further attempts on another locus in the pillow library, and one code locus in the numpy library, to demonstrate generalization within and beyond a library. In all attempts, the performance improvement is significant (factor up to 38). We have also not omitted reporting of failed attempts (there were none). We conclude that LLMs are a promising tool for code optimization in open source libraries, but that the human expert in the loop is essential for success. Nonetheless, we were surprised by how few iterations were required to achieve substantial performance improvements that were not obvious to the expert in the loop. We would like bring attention to the qualitative nature of this study, more robust quantitative studies would need to introduce a layer of selecting experts in a representative sample -- we invite the community to collaborate.

We present WeaverBird, an intelligent dialogue system designed specifically for the finance domain. Our system harnesses a large language model of GPT architecture that has been tuned using extensive corpora of finance-related text. As a result, our system possesses the capability to understand complex financial queries, such as "How should I manage my investments during inflation?", and provide informed responses. Furthermore, our system incorporates a local knowledge base and a search engine to retrieve relevant information. The final responses are conditioned on the search results and include proper citations to the sources, thus enjoying an enhanced credibility. Through a range of finance-related questions, we have demonstrated the superior performance of our system compared to other models. To experience our system firsthand, users can interact with our live demo at https://weaverbird.ttic.edu, as well as watch our 2-min video illustration at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyV2qQkX6Tc.

The automation of scientific discovery has been a long-standing goal within the research community, driven by the potential to accelerate knowledge creation. While significant progress has been made using commercial large language models (LLMs) as research assistants or idea generators, the possibility of automating the entire research process with open-source LLMs remains largely unexplored. This paper explores the feasibility of using open-source post-trained LLMs as autonomous agents capable of performing the full cycle of automated research and review, from literature review and manuscript preparation to peer review and paper revision. Our iterative preference training framework consists of CycleResearcher, which conducts research tasks, and CycleReviewer, which simulates the peer review process, providing iterative feedback via reinforcement learning. To train these models, we develop two new datasets, Review-5k and Research-14k, reflecting real-world machine learning research and peer review dynamics. Our results demonstrate that CycleReviewer achieves a 26.89\% improvement in mean absolute error (MAE) over individual human reviewers in predicting paper scores, indicating that LLMs can surpass expert-level performance in research evaluation. In research, the papers generated by the CycleResearcher model achieved a score of 5.36 in simulated peer reviews, surpassing the preprint level of 5.24 from human experts and approaching the accepted paper level of 5.69. This work represents a significant step toward fully automated scientific inquiry, providing ethical safeguards and advancing AI-driven research capabilities. The code, dataset and model weight are released at http://github/minjun-zhu/Researcher.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities across various language tasks, notably through instruction-tuning methods. However, LLMs face challenges in visualizing complex, real-world data through charts and plots. Firstly, existing datasets rarely cover a full range of chart types, such as 3D, volumetric, and gridded charts. Secondly, supervised fine-tuning methods do not fully leverage the intricate relationships within rich datasets, including text, code, and figures. To address these challenges, we propose a hierarchical pipeline and a new dataset for chart generation. Our dataset, Text2Chart31, includes 31 unique plot types referring to the Matplotlib library, with 11.1K tuples of descriptions, code, data tables, and plots. Moreover, we introduce a reinforcement learning-based instruction tuning technique for chart generation tasks without requiring human feedback. Our experiments show that this approach significantly enhances the model performance, enabling smaller models to outperform larger open-source models and be comparable to state-of-the-art proprietary models in data visualization tasks. We make the code and dataset available at https://github.com/fatemehpesaran310/Text2Chart31.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

Storytelling is the lifeline of the entertainment industry -- movies, TV shows, and stand-up comedies, all need stories. A good and gripping script is the lifeline of storytelling and demands creativity and resource investment. Good scriptwriters are rare to find and often work under severe time pressure. Consequently, entertainment media are actively looking for automation. In this paper, we present an AI-based script-writing workbench called KUROSAWA which addresses the tasks of plot generation and script generation. Plot generation aims to generate a coherent and creative plot (600-800 words) given a prompt (15-40 words). Script generation, on the other hand, generates a scene (200-500 words) in a screenplay format from a brief description (15-40 words). Kurosawa needs data to train. We use a 4-act structure of storytelling to annotate the plot dataset manually. We create a dataset of 1000 manually annotated plots and their corresponding prompts/storylines and a gold-standard dataset of 1000 scenes with four main elements -- scene headings, action lines, dialogues, and character names -- tagged individually. We fine-tune GPT-3 with the above datasets to generate plots and scenes. These plots and scenes are first evaluated and then used by the scriptwriters of a large and famous media platform ErosNow. We release the annotated datasets and the models trained on these datasets as a working benchmark for automatic movie plot and script generation.

Tabular data, as a crucial form of data representation, exists in diverse formats on the Web. When confronted with complex and irregular tables, manual modification becomes a laborious task. This paper investigates the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the context of table editing tasks. Existing research mainly focuses on regular-shaped tables, wherein instructions are used to generate code in SQL, Python, or Excel Office-script for manipulating the tables. Nevertheless, editing tables with irregular structures, particularly those containing merged cells spanning multiple rows, poses a challenge when using code. To address this, we introduce the WikiTableEdit dataset. Leveraging 26,531 tables from the WikiSQL dataset, we automatically generate natural language instructions for six distinct basic operations and the corresponding outcomes, resulting in over 200,000 instances. Subsequently, we evaluate several representative large language models on the WikiTableEdit dataset to demonstrate the challenge of this task. The dataset will be released to the community to promote related researches.

Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model.

Large pre-trained code generation models, such as OpenAI Codex, can generate syntax- and function-correct code, making the coding of programmers more productive and our pursuit of artificial general intelligence closer. In this paper, we introduce CodeGeeX, a multilingual model with 13 billion parameters for code generation. CodeGeeX is pre-trained on 850 billion tokens of 23 programming languages as of June 2022. Our extensive experiments suggest that CodeGeeX outperforms multilingual code models of similar scale for both the tasks of code generation and translation on HumanEval-X. Building upon HumanEval (Python only), we develop the HumanEval-X benchmark for evaluating multilingual models by hand-writing the solutions in C++, Java, JavaScript, and Go. In addition, we build CodeGeeX-based extensions on Visual Studio Code, JetBrains, and Cloud Studio, generating 4.7 billion tokens for tens of thousands of active users per week. Our user study demonstrates that CodeGeeX can help to increase coding efficiency for 83.4% of its users. Finally, CodeGeeX is publicly accessible and in Sep. 2022, we open-sourced its code, model weights (the version of 850B tokens), API, extensions, and HumanEval-X at https://github.com/THUDM/CodeGeeX.

Answering questions within business and finance requires reasoning, precision, and a wide-breadth of technical knowledge. Together, these requirements make this domain difficult for large language models (LLMs). We introduce BizBench, a benchmark for evaluating models' ability to reason about realistic financial problems. BizBench comprises eight quantitative reasoning tasks, focusing on question-answering (QA) over financial data via program synthesis. We include three financially-themed code-generation tasks from newly collected and augmented QA data. Additionally, we isolate the reasoning capabilities required for financial QA: reading comprehension of financial text and tables for extracting intermediate values, and understanding financial concepts and formulas needed to calculate complex solutions. Collectively, these tasks evaluate a model's financial background knowledge, ability to parse financial documents, and capacity to solve problems with code. We conduct an in-depth evaluation of open-source and commercial LLMs, comparing and contrasting the behavior of code-focused and language-focused models. We demonstrate that the current bottleneck in performance is due to LLMs' limited business and financial understanding, highlighting the value of a challenging benchmark for quantitative reasoning within this domain.

Recently, neural techniques have been used to generate source code automatically. While promising for declarative languages, these approaches achieve much poorer performance on datasets for imperative languages. Since a declarative language is typically embedded in an imperative language (i.e., the turducken-style programming) in real-world software development, the promising results on declarative languages can hardly lead to significant reduction of manual software development efforts. In this paper, we define a new code generation task: given a natural language comment, this task aims to generate a program in a base imperative language with an embedded declarative language. To our knowledge, this is the first turducken-style code generation task. For this task, we present Lyra: a dataset in Python with embedded SQL. This dataset contains 2,000 carefully annotated database manipulation programs from real-world projects. Each program is paired with both a Chinese comment and an English comment. In our experiment, we adopted Transformer, BERT-style, and GPT-style models as baselines. In the best setting, the generation performance of GPT-style models is better than others, where the AST exact matching accuracy is 24% and 25.5% when using Chinese and English comments, respectively. Therefore, we believe that Lyra provides a new challenge for code generation. Yet, overcoming this challenge may significantly boost the applicability of code generation techniques for real-world software development.

The increasing use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in software development has garnered significant attention from researchers assessing the quality of the code they generate. However, much of the research focuses on controlled datasets such as HumanEval, which fail to adequately represent how developers actually utilize LLMs' code generation capabilities or clarify the characteristics of LLM-generated code in real-world development scenarios. To bridge this gap, our study investigates the characteristics of LLM-generated code and its corresponding projects hosted on GitHub. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) ChatGPT and Copilot are the most frequently utilized for generating code on GitHub. In contrast, there is very little code generated by other LLMs on GitHub. (2) Projects containing ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code are often small and less known, led by individuals or small teams. Despite this, most projects are continuously evolving and improving. (3) ChatGPT/Copilot is mainly utilized for generating Python, Java, and TypeScript scripts for data processing and transformation. C/C++ and JavaScript code generation focuses on algorithm and data structure implementation and user interface code. Most ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code snippets are relatively short and exhibit low complexity. (4) Compared to human-written code, ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code exists in a small proportion of projects and generally undergoes fewer modifications. Additionally, modifications due to bugs are even fewer, ranging from just 3% to 8% across different languages. (5) Most comments on ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code lack detailed information, often only stating the code's origin without mentioning prompts, human modifications, or testing status. Based on these findings, we discuss the implications for researchers and practitioners.

This paper presents a brief, semi-technical comparison of the essential features of the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference, with several illustrative examples implemented in Python. The differences between frequentism and Bayesianism fundamentally stem from differing definitions of probability, a philosophical divide which leads to distinct approaches to the solution of statistical problems as well as contrasting ways of asking and answering questions about unknown parameters. After an example-driven discussion of these differences, we briefly compare several leading Python statistical packages which implement frequentist inference using classical methods and Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Information Technology and Capital Goods for the period January 2009 till April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA index, NIFTY index and the US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate. We establish by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA index and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY index. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India reflects internal economic growth of India. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has significantly pushed the frontiers of program synthesis. Advancement of LLM-based program synthesis calls for a thorough evaluation of LLM-generated code. Most evaluation frameworks focus on the (functional) correctness of generated code; efficiency, as an important measure of code quality, has been overlooked in existing evaluations. In this work, we develop ENAMEL (EfficeNcy AutoMatic EvaLuator), a rigorous and high-standard benchmark for evaluating the capability of LLMs in generating efficient code. Firstly, we propose a new efficiency metric called eff@k, which generalizes the pass@k metric from correctness to efficiency and appropriately handles right-censored execution time. Furthermore, we derive an unbiased and variance-reduced estimator of eff@k via Rao--Blackwellization; we also provide a numerically stable implementation for the new estimator. Secondly, to set a high-standard for efficiency evaluation, we employ a human expert to design best algorithms and implementations as our reference solutions of efficiency, many of which are much more efficient than existing canonical solutions in HumanEval and HumanEval+. Moreover, to ensure a rigorous evaluation, we employ a human expert to curate strong test case generators to filter out wrong code and differentiate suboptimal algorithms. An extensive study across 30 popular LLMs using our benchmark ENAMEL shows that LLMs still fall short of generating expert-level efficient code. Using two subsets of our problem set, we demonstrate that such deficiency is because current LLMs struggle in designing advanced algorithms and are barely aware of implementation optimization. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/q-rz/enamel .

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has unlocked various applications of this technology in software development. In particular, generative LLMs have been shown to effectively power AI-based code authoring tools that can suggest entire statements or blocks of code during code authoring. In this paper we present CodeCompose, an AI-assisted code authoring tool developed and deployed at Meta internally. CodeCompose is based on the InCoder LLM that merges generative capabilities with bi-directionality. We have scaled up CodeCompose to serve tens of thousands of developers at Meta, across 10+ programming languages and several coding surfaces. We discuss unique challenges in terms of user experience and metrics that arise when deploying such tools in large-scale industrial settings. We present our experience in making design decisions about the model and system architecture for CodeCompose that addresses these challenges. Finally, we present metrics from our large-scale deployment of CodeCompose that shows its impact on Meta's internal code authoring experience over a 15-day time window, where 4.5 million suggestions were made by CodeCompose. Quantitative metrics reveal that (i) CodeCompose has an acceptance rate of 22% across several languages, and (ii) 8% of the code typed by users of CodeCompose is through accepting code suggestions from CodeCompose. Qualitative feedback indicates an overwhelming 91.5% positive reception for CodeCompose. In addition to assisting with code authoring, CodeCompose is also introducing other positive side effects such as encouraging developers to generate more in-code documentation, helping them with the discovery of new APIs, etc.

Code LLMs are being rapidly deployed and there is evidence that they can make professional programmers more productive. Current benchmarks for code generation measure whether models generate correct programs given an expert prompt. In this paper, we present a new benchmark containing multiple prompts per problem, written by a specific population of non-expert prompters: beginning programmers. StudentEval contains 1,749 prompts for 48 problems, written by 80 students who have only completed one semester of Python programming. Our students wrote these prompts while working interactively with a Code LLM, and we observed very mixed success rates. We use StudentEval to evaluate 5 Code LLMs and find that StudentEval is a better discriminator of model performance than existing benchmarks. We analyze the prompts and find significant variation in students' prompting techniques. We also find that nondeterministic LLM sampling could mislead students into thinking that their prompts are more (or less) effective than they actually are, which has implications for how to teach with Code LLMs.

Over the past decade, predictive language modeling for code has proven to be a valuable tool for enabling new forms of automation for developers. More recently, we have seen the advent of general purpose "large language models", based on neural transformer architectures, that have been trained on massive datasets of human written text spanning code and natural language. However, despite the demonstrated representational power of such models, interacting with them has historically been constrained to specific task settings, limiting their general applicability. Many of these limitations were recently overcome with the introduction of ChatGPT, a language model created by OpenAI and trained to operate as a conversational agent, enabling it to answer questions and respond to a wide variety of commands from end users. The introduction of models, such as ChatGPT, has already spurred fervent discussion from educators, ranging from fear that students could use these AI tools to circumvent learning, to excitement about the new types of learning opportunities that they might unlock. However, given the nascent nature of these tools, we currently lack fundamental knowledge related to how well they perform in different educational settings, and the potential promise (or danger) that they might pose to traditional forms of instruction. As such, in this paper, we examine how well ChatGPT performs when tasked with answering common questions in a popular software testing curriculum. Our findings indicate that ChatGPT can provide correct or partially correct answers in 55.6% of cases, provide correct or partially correct explanations of answers in 53.0% of cases, and that prompting the tool in a shared question context leads to a marginally higher rate of correct responses. Based on these findings, we discuss the potential promises and perils related to the use of ChatGPT by students and instructors.

This paper introduces a Scandinavian benchmarking platform, ScandEval, which can benchmark any pretrained model on four different tasks in the Scandinavian languages. The datasets used in two of the tasks, linguistic acceptability and question answering, are new. We develop and release a Python package and command-line interface, scandeval, which can benchmark any model that has been uploaded to the Hugging Face Hub, with reproducible results. Using this package, we benchmark more than 100 Scandinavian or multilingual models and present the results of these in an interactive online leaderboard, as well as provide an analysis of the results. The analysis shows that there is substantial cross-lingual transfer among the Mainland Scandinavian languages (Danish, Swedish and Norwegian), with limited cross-lingual transfer between the group of Mainland Scandinavian languages and the group of Insular Scandinavian languages (Icelandic and Faroese). The benchmarking results also show that the investment in language technology in Norway, Sweden and Denmark has led to language models that outperform massively multilingual models such as XLM-RoBERTa and mDeBERTaV3. We release the source code for both the package and leaderboard.

Evaluations are critical for understanding the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Fundamentally, evaluations are experiments; but the literature on evaluations has largely ignored the literature from other sciences on experiment analysis and planning. This article shows researchers with some training in statistics how to think about and analyze data from language model evaluations. Conceptualizing evaluation questions as having been drawn from an unseen super-population, we present formulas for analyzing evaluation data, measuring differences between two models, and planning an evaluation experiment. We make a number of specific recommendations for running language model evaluations and reporting experiment results in a way that minimizes statistical noise and maximizes informativeness.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

PySR is an open-source library for practical symbolic regression, a type of machine learning which aims to discover human-interpretable symbolic models. PySR was developed to democratize and popularize symbolic regression for the sciences, and is built on a high-performance distributed back-end, a flexible search algorithm, and interfaces with several deep learning packages. PySR's internal search algorithm is a multi-population evolutionary algorithm, which consists of a unique evolve-simplify-optimize loop, designed for optimization of unknown scalar constants in newly-discovered empirical expressions. PySR's backend is the extremely optimized Julia library SymbolicRegression.jl, which can be used directly from Julia. It is capable of fusing user-defined operators into SIMD kernels at runtime, performing automatic differentiation, and distributing populations of expressions to thousands of cores across a cluster. In describing this software, we also introduce a new benchmark, "EmpiricalBench," to quantify the applicability of symbolic regression algorithms in science. This benchmark measures recovery of historical empirical equations from original and synthetic datasets.

Sports competitions are widely researched in computer and social science, with the goal of understanding how players act under uncertainty. While there is an abundance of computational work on player metrics prediction based on past performance, very few attempts to incorporate out-of-game signals have been made. Specifically, it was previously unclear whether linguistic signals gathered from players' interviews can add information which does not appear in performance metrics. To bridge that gap, we define text classification tasks of predicting deviations from mean in NBA players' in-game actions, which are associated with strategic choices, player behavior and risk, using their choice of language prior to the game. We collected a dataset of transcripts from key NBA players' pre-game interviews and their in-game performance metrics, totalling in 5,226 interview-metric pairs. We design neural models for players' action prediction based on increasingly more complex aspects of the language signals in their open-ended interviews. Our models can make their predictions based on the textual signal alone, or on a combination with signals from past-performance metrics. Our text-based models outperform strong baselines trained on performance metrics only, demonstrating the importance of language usage for action prediction. Moreover, the models that employ both textual input and past-performance metrics produced the best results. Finally, as neural networks are notoriously difficult to interpret, we propose a method for gaining further insight into what our models have learned. Particularly, we present an LDA-based analysis, where we interpret model predictions in terms of correlated topics. We find that our best performing textual model is most associated with topics that are intuitively related to each prediction task and that better models yield higher correlation with more informative topics.

Evaluation of large language models (LLMs) for code has primarily relied on static benchmarks, including HumanEval (Chen et al., 2021), which measure the ability of LLMs to generate complete code that passes unit tests. As LLMs are increasingly used as programmer assistants, we study whether gains on existing benchmarks translate to gains in programmer productivity when coding with LLMs, including time spent coding. In addition to static benchmarks, we investigate the utility of preference metrics that might be used as proxies to measure LLM helpfulness, such as code acceptance or copy rates. To do so, we introduce RealHumanEval, a web interface to measure the ability of LLMs to assist programmers, through either autocomplete or chat support. We conducted a user study (N=213) using RealHumanEval in which users interacted with six LLMs of varying base model performance. Despite static benchmarks not incorporating humans-in-the-loop, we find that improvements in benchmark performance lead to increased programmer productivity; however gaps in benchmark versus human performance are not proportional -- a trend that holds across both forms of LLM support. In contrast, we find that programmer preferences do not correlate with their actual performance, motivating the need for better, human-centric proxy signals. We also open-source RealHumanEval to enable human-centric evaluation of new models and the study data to facilitate efforts to improve code models.

We introduce GODEL (Grounded Open Dialogue Language Model), a large pre-trained language model for dialog. In contrast with earlier models such as DialoGPT, GODEL leverages a new phase of grounded pre-training designed to better support adapting GODEL to a wide range of downstream dialog tasks that require information external to the current conversation (e.g., a database or document) to produce good responses. Experiments against an array of benchmarks that encompass task-oriented dialog, conversational QA, and grounded open-domain dialog show that GODEL outperforms state-of-the-art pre-trained dialog models in few-shot fine-tuning setups, in terms of both human and automatic evaluation. A novel feature of our evaluation methodology is the introduction of a notion of utility that assesses the usefulness of responses (extrinsic evaluation) in addition to their communicative features (intrinsic evaluation). We show that extrinsic evaluation offers improved inter-annotator agreement and correlation with automated metrics. Code and data processing scripts are publicly available.

We consider the use of automated supervised learning systems for data tables that not only contain numeric/categorical columns, but one or more text fields as well. Here we assemble 18 multimodal data tables that each contain some text fields and stem from a real business application. Our publicly-available benchmark enables researchers to comprehensively evaluate their own methods for supervised learning with numeric, categorical, and text features. To ensure that any single modeling strategy which performs well over all 18 datasets will serve as a practical foundation for multimodal text/tabular AutoML, the diverse datasets in our benchmark vary greatly in: sample size, problem types (a mix of classification and regression tasks), number of features (with the number of text columns ranging from 1 to 28 between datasets), as well as how the predictive signal is decomposed between text vs. numeric/categorical features (and predictive interactions thereof). Over this benchmark, we evaluate various straightforward pipelines to model such data, including standard two-stage approaches where NLP is used to featurize the text such that AutoML for tabular data can then be applied. Compared with human data science teams, the fully automated methodology that performed best on our benchmark (stack ensembling a multimodal Transformer with various tree models) also manages to rank 1st place when fit to the raw text/tabular data in two MachineHack prediction competitions and 2nd place (out of 2380 teams) in Kaggle's Mercari Price Suggestion Challenge.

A less complex and more straightforward program is a crucial factor that enhances its maintainability and makes writing secure and bug-free programs easier. However, due to its heavy workload and the risks of breaking the working programs, programmers are reluctant to do code refactoring, and thus, it also causes the loss of potential learning experiences. To mitigate this, we demonstrate the application of using a large language model (LLM), GPT-3.5, to suggest less complex versions of the user-written Python program, aiming to encourage users to learn how to write better programs. We propose a method to leverage the prompting with few-shot examples of the LLM by selecting the best-suited code refactoring examples for each target programming problem based on the prior evaluation of prompting with the one-shot example. The quantitative evaluation shows that 95.68% of programs can be refactored by generating 10 candidates each, resulting in a 17.35% reduction in the average cyclomatic complexity and a 25.84% decrease in the average number of lines after filtering only generated programs that are semantically correct. Furthermore, the qualitative evaluation shows outstanding capability in code formatting, while unnecessary behaviors such as deleting or translating comments are also observed.

Language models can generate harmful and biased outputs and exhibit undesirable behavior according to a given cultural context. We propose a Process for Adapting Language Models to Society (PALMS) with Values-Targeted Datasets, an iterative process to significantly change model behavior by crafting and fine-tuning on a dataset that reflects a predetermined set of target values. We evaluate our process using three metrics: quantitative metrics with human evaluations that score output adherence to a target value, toxicity scoring on outputs; and qualitative metrics analyzing the most common word associated with a given social category. Through each iteration, we add additional training dataset examples based on observed shortcomings from evaluations. PALMS performs significantly better on all metrics compared to baseline and control models for a broad range of GPT-3 language model sizes without compromising capability integrity. We find that the effectiveness of PALMS increases with model size. We show that significantly adjusting language model behavior is feasible with a small, hand-curated dataset.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

We release EDGAR-CORPUS, a novel corpus comprising annual reports from all the publicly traded companies in the US spanning a period of more than 25 years. To the best of our knowledge, EDGAR-CORPUS is the largest financial NLP corpus available to date. All the reports are downloaded, split into their corresponding items (sections), and provided in a clean, easy-to-use JSON format. We use EDGAR-CORPUS to train and release EDGAR-W2V, which are WORD2VEC embeddings for the financial domain. We employ these embeddings in a battery of financial NLP tasks and showcase their superiority over generic GloVe embeddings and other existing financial word embeddings. We also open-source EDGAR-CRAWLER, a toolkit that facilitates downloading and extracting future annual reports.

The ML community is rapidly exploring techniques for prompting language models (LMs) and for stacking them into pipelines that solve complex tasks. Unfortunately, existing LM pipelines are typically implemented using hard-coded "prompt templates", i.e. lengthy strings discovered via trial and error. Toward a more systematic approach for developing and optimizing LM pipelines, we introduce DSPy, a programming model that abstracts LM pipelines as text transformation graphs, i.e. imperative computational graphs where LMs are invoked through declarative modules. DSPy modules are parameterized, meaning they can learn (by creating and collecting demonstrations) how to apply compositions of prompting, finetuning, augmentation, and reasoning techniques. We design a compiler that will optimize any DSPy pipeline to maximize a given metric. We conduct two case studies, showing that succinct DSPy programs can express and optimize sophisticated LM pipelines that reason about math word problems, tackle multi-hop retrieval, answer complex questions, and control agent loops. Within minutes of compiling, a few lines of DSPy allow GPT-3.5 and llama2-13b-chat to self-bootstrap pipelines that outperform standard few-shot prompting (generally by over 25% and 65%, respectively) and pipelines with expert-created demonstrations (by up to 5-46% and 16-40%, respectively). On top of that, DSPy programs compiled to open and relatively small LMs like 770M-parameter T5 and llama2-13b-chat are competitive with approaches that rely on expert-written prompt chains for proprietary GPT-3.5. DSPy is available at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/dspy

Software specifications are essential for ensuring the reliability of software systems. Existing specification extraction approaches, however, suffer from limited generalizability and require manual efforts. The recent emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), which have been successfully applied to numerous software engineering tasks, offers a promising avenue for automating this process. In this paper, we conduct the first empirical study to evaluate the capabilities of LLMs for generating software specifications from software comments or documentation. We evaluate LLMs' performance with Few Shot Learning (FSL), enabling LLMs to generalize from a small number of examples, as well as different prompt construction strategies, and compare the performance of LLMs with traditional approaches. Additionally, we conduct a comparative diagnosis of the failure cases from both LLMs and traditional methods, identifying their unique strengths and weaknesses. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments on 15 state of the art LLMs, evaluating their performance and cost effectiveness for generating software specifications. Our results show that with FSL, LLMs outperform traditional methods (by 5.6%), and more sophisticated prompt construction strategies can further enlarge this performance gap (up to 5.1 to 10.0%). Yet, LLMs suffer from their unique challenges, such as ineffective prompts and the lack of domain knowledge, which together account for 53 to 60% of LLM unique failures. The strong performance of open source models (e.g., StarCoder) makes closed source models (e.g., GPT 3 Davinci) less desirable due to size and cost. Our study offers valuable insights for future research to improve specification generation.

The left-corner transformation (Rosenkrantz and Lewis, 1970) is used to remove left recursion from context-free grammars, which is an important step towards making the grammar parsable top-down with simple techniques. This paper generalizes prior left-corner transformations to support semiring-weighted production rules and to provide finer-grained control over which left corners may be moved. Our generalized left-corner transformation (GLCT) arose from unifying the left-corner transformation and speculation transformation (Eisner and Blatz, 2007), originally for logic programming. Our new transformation and speculation define equivalent weighted languages. Yet, their derivation trees are structurally different in an important way: GLCT replaces left recursion with right recursion, and speculation does not. We also provide several technical results regarding the formal relationships between the outputs of GLCT, speculation, and the original grammar. Lastly, we empirically investigate the efficiency of GLCT for left-recursion elimination from grammars of nine languages.

In recent years, the use of automated source code generation utilizing transformer-based generative models has expanded, and these models can generate functional code according to the requirements of the developers. However, recent research revealed that these automatically generated source codes can contain vulnerabilities and other quality issues. Despite researchers' and practitioners' attempts to enhance code generation models, retraining and fine-tuning large language models is time-consuming and resource-intensive. Thus, we describe FRANC, a lightweight framework for recommending more secure and high-quality source code derived from transformer-based code generation models. FRANC includes a static filter to make the generated code compilable with heuristics and a quality-aware ranker to sort the code snippets based on a quality score. Moreover, the framework uses prompt engineering to fix persistent quality issues. We evaluated the framework with five Python and Java code generation models and six prompt datasets, including a newly created one in this work (SOEval). The static filter improves 9% to 46% Java suggestions and 10% to 43% Python suggestions regarding compilability. The average improvement over the NDCG@10 score for the ranking system is 0.0763, and the repairing techniques repair the highest 80% of prompts. FRANC takes, on average, 1.98 seconds for Java; for Python, it takes 0.08 seconds.

Code is increasingly becoming a core data modality of modern machine learning research impacting not only the way we write code with conversational agents like OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google's Bard, or Anthropic's Claude, the way we translate code from one language into another, but also the compiler infrastructure underlying the language. While modeling approaches may vary and representations differ, the targeted tasks often remain the same within the individual classes of models. Relying solely on the ability of modern models to extract information from unstructured code does not take advantage of 70 years of programming language and compiler development by not utilizing the structure inherent to programs in the data collection. This detracts from the performance of models working over a tokenized representation of input code and precludes the use of these models in the compiler itself. To work towards the first intermediate representation (IR) based models, we fully utilize the LLVM compiler infrastructure, shared by a number of languages, to generate a 182B token dataset of LLVM IR. We generated this dataset from programming languages built on the shared LLVM infrastructure, including Rust, Swift, Julia, and C/C++, by hooking into LLVM code generation either through the language's package manager or the compiler directly to extract the dataset of intermediate representations from production grade programs. Statistical analysis proves the utility of our dataset not only for large language model training, but also for the introspection into the code generation process itself with the dataset showing great promise for machine-learned compiler components.

The evaluation of large language models (LLMs) is crucial to assess their performance and mitigate potential security risks. In this paper, we introduce PromptBench, a unified library to evaluate LLMs. It consists of several key components that are easily used and extended by researchers: prompt construction, prompt engineering, dataset and model loading, adversarial prompt attack, dynamic evaluation protocols, and analysis tools. PromptBench is designed to be an open, general, and flexible codebase for research purposes that can facilitate original study in creating new benchmarks, deploying downstream applications, and designing new evaluation protocols. The code is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/promptbench and will be continuously supported.

While making investment decisions by reading financial documents, investors need to differentiate between in-claim and outof-claim numerals. In this paper, we present a tool which does it automatically. It extracts context embeddings of the numerals using one of the transformer based pre-trained language model called BERT. After this, it uses a Logistic Regression based model to detect whether the numerals is in-claim or out-of-claim. We use FinNum-3 (English) dataset to train our model. After conducting rigorous experiments we achieve a Macro F1 score of 0.8223 on the validation set. We have open-sourced this tool and it can be accessed from https://github.com/sohomghosh/FiNCAT_Financial_Numeral_Claim_Analysis_Tool

Annual Reports of publicly listed companies contain vital information about their financial health which can help assess the potential impact on Stock price of the firm. These reports are comprehensive in nature, going up to, and sometimes exceeding, 100 pages. Analysing these reports is cumbersome even for a single firm, let alone the whole universe of firms that exist. Over the years, financial experts have become proficient in extracting valuable information from these documents relatively quickly. However, this requires years of practice and experience. This paper aims to simplify the process of assessing Annual Reports of all the firms by leveraging the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). The insights generated by the LLM are compiled in a Quant styled dataset and augmented by historical stock price data. A Machine Learning model is then trained with LLM outputs as features. The walkforward test results show promising outperformance wrt S&P500 returns. This paper intends to provide a framework for future work in this direction. To facilitate this, the code has been released as open source.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated a remarkable ability to generate code from natural language (NL) prompts. However, in the real world, NL is often too ambiguous to capture the true intent behind programming problems, requiring additional input-output (I/O) specifications. Unfortunately, LLMs can have difficulty aligning their outputs with both the NL prompt and the I/O specification. In this paper, we give a way to mitigate this issue in the context of data science programming, where tasks require explicit I/O specifications for clarity. Specifically, we propose GIFT4Code, a novel approach for the instruction fine-tuning of LLMs with respect to I/O specifications. Our method leverages synthetic data produced by the LLM itself and utilizes execution-derived feedback as a key learning signal. This feedback, in the form of program I/O specifications, is provided to the LLM to facilitate instruction fine-tuning. We evaluated our approach on two challenging data science benchmarks, Arcade and DS-1000. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the LLM's ability to generate code that is not only executable but also accurately aligned with user specifications, substantially improving the quality of code generation for complex data science tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) are often augmented with tools to solve complex tasks. By generating code snippets and executing them through task-specific Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), they can offload certain functions to dedicated external modules, such as image encoding and performing calculations. However, most existing approaches to augment LLMs with tools are constrained by general-purpose APIs and lack the flexibility for tailoring them to specific tasks. In this work, we present CRAFT, a general tool creation and retrieval framework for LLMs. It creates toolsets specifically curated for the tasks and equips LLMs with a component that retrieves tools from these sets to enhance their capability to solve complex tasks. For each task, we collect specific code solutions by prompting GPT-4 to solve the training examples. Following a validation step ensuring the correctness, these solutions are abstracted into code snippets to enhance reusability, and deduplicated for higher quality. At inference time, the language model retrieves snippets from the toolsets and then executes them or generates the output conditioning on the retrieved snippets. Our method is designed to be flexible and offers a plug-and-play approach to adapt off-the-shelf LLMs to unseen domains and modalities, without any finetuning. Experiments on vision-language, tabular processing, and mathematical reasoning tasks show that our approach achieves substantial improvements compared to strong baselines. In addition, our in-depth analysis reveals that: (1) consistent performance improvement can be achieved by scaling up the number of tools and the capability of the backbone models; (2) each component of our approach contributes to the performance gains; (3) the created tools are well-structured and reliable with low complexity and atomicity. The code is available at https://github.com/lifan-yuan/CRAFT.

Language models have shown promising performance on the task of translating natural language questions into SQL queries (Text-to-SQL). However, most of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) approaches rely on powerful yet closed-source large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and GPT-4, which may have the limitations of unclear model architectures, data privacy risks, and expensive inference overheads. To address the limitations, we introduce CodeS, a series of pre-trained language models with parameters ranging from 1B to 15B, specifically designed for the text-to-SQL task. CodeS is a fully open-source language model, which achieves superior accuracy with much smaller parameter sizes. This paper studies the research challenges in building CodeS. To enhance the SQL generation abilities of CodeS, we adopt an incremental pre-training approach using a specifically curated SQL-centric corpus. Based on this, we address the challenges of schema linking and rapid domain adaptation through strategic prompt construction and a bi-directional data augmentation technique. We conduct comprehensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including the widely used Spider benchmark, the newly released BIRD benchmark, robustness-diagnostic benchmarks such as Spider-DK, Spider-Syn, Spider-Realistic, and Dr.Spider, as well as two real-world datasets created for financial and academic applications. The experimental results show that our CodeS achieves new SOTA accuracy and robustness on nearly all challenging text-to-SQL benchmarks.

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and Copilot, are transforming software development by automating code generation and, arguably, enable rapid prototyping, support education, and boost productivity. Therefore, correctness and quality of the generated code should be on par with manually written code. To assess the current state of LLMs in generating correct code of high quality, we conducted controlled experiments with ChatGPT and Copilot: we let the LLMs generate simple algorithms in Java and Python along with the corresponding unit tests and assessed the correctness and the quality (coverage) of the generated (test) codes. We observed significant differences between the LLMs, between the languages, between algorithm and test codes, and over time. The present paper reports these results together with the experimental methods allowing repeated and comparable assessments for more algorithms, languages, and LLMs over time.

Recent research shows the potential of enhancing the problem-solving ability of large language models (LLMs) through the use of external tools. However, prior work along this line depends on the availability of existing tools. In this work, we take an initial step towards removing this dependency by proposing a closed-loop framework, referred to as LLMs As Tool Makers (LATM), where LLMs create their own reusable tools for problem-solving. Our approach consists of two key phases: 1) tool making: an LLM acts as the tool maker that crafts tools for given tasks, where a tool is implemented as a Python utility function. 2) tool using: an LLM acts as the tool user, which applies the tool built by the tool maker for problem-solving. The tool user can be either the same or a different LLM from the tool maker. Tool-making enables an LLM to continually generate tools that can be applied to different requests so that future requests can call the corresponding APIs when beneficial for solving the tasks. Furthermore, the division of labor among LLMs for tool-making and tool-using phases introduces the opportunity to achieve cost effectiveness without degrading the quality of generated tools and problem solutions. For example, recognizing that tool-making demands more sophisticated capabilities than tool-using, we can apply a powerful yet resource-intensive model as the tool maker, and a lightweight while cost-effective model as the tool user. We validate the effectiveness of our approach across a variety of complex reasoning tasks, including Big-Bench tasks. With GPT-4 as the tool maker and GPT-3.5 as the tool user, LATM can achieve performance that is on par with using GPT-4 for both tool making and tool using, while the inference cost is significantly reduced.

When human programmers have mastered a programming language, it would be easier when they learn a new programming language. In this report, we focus on exploring whether programming languages can boost each other during the instruction fine-tuning phase of code large language models. We conduct extensive experiments of 8 popular programming languages (Python, JavaScript, TypeScript, C, C++, Java, Go, HTML) on StarCoder. Results demonstrate that programming languages can significantly improve each other. For example, CodeM-Python 15B trained on Python is able to increase Java by an absolute 17.95% pass@1 on HumanEval-X. More surprisingly, we found that CodeM-HTML 7B trained on the HTML corpus can improve Java by an absolute 15.24% pass@1. Our training data is released at https://github.com/NL2Code/CodeM.

E-commerce authoring involves creating attractive, abundant, and targeted promotional content to drive product sales. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) introduces an innovative paradigm, offering a unified solution to address various authoring tasks within this scenario. However, mainstream LLMs trained on general corpora with common sense knowledge reveal limitations in fitting complex and personalized features unique to e-commerce products and customers. Furthermore, LLMs like GPT-3.5 necessitate remote accessibility, raising concerns about safeguarding voluminous customer privacy data during transmission. This paper proposes the LLaMA-E, the unified and customized instruction-following language models focusing on diverse e-commerce authoring tasks. Specifically, the domain experts create the seed instruction set from the tasks of ads generation, query-enhanced product title rewriting, product classification, purchase intent speculation, and general Q&A. These tasks enable the models to comprehensively understand precise e-commerce authoring knowledge by interleaving features covering typical service aspects of customers, sellers, and platforms. The GPT-3.5 is introduced as a teacher model, which expands the seed instructions to form a training set for the LLaMA-E models with various scales. The experimental results show that the proposed LLaMA-E models achieve state-of-the-art results in quantitative and qualitative evaluations, also exhibiting the advantage in zero-shot scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to serve the LLMs to specific e-commerce authoring scenarios.

Spreadsheets, with their extensive two-dimensional grids, various layouts, and diverse formatting options, present notable challenges for large language models (LLMs). In response, we introduce SpreadsheetLLM, pioneering an efficient encoding method designed to unleash and optimize LLMs' powerful understanding and reasoning capability on spreadsheets. Initially, we propose a vanilla serialization approach that incorporates cell addresses, values, and formats. However, this approach was limited by LLMs' token constraints, making it impractical for most applications. To tackle this challenge, we develop SheetCompressor, an innovative encoding framework that compresses spreadsheets effectively for LLMs. It comprises three modules: structural-anchor-based compression, inverse index translation, and data-format-aware aggregation. It significantly improves performance in spreadsheet table detection task, outperforming the vanilla approach by 25.6% in GPT4's in-context learning setting. Moreover, fine-tuned LLM with SheetCompressor has an average compression ratio of 25 times, but achieves a state-of-the-art 78.9% F1 score, surpassing the best existing models by 12.3%. Finally, we propose Chain of Spreadsheet for downstream tasks of spreadsheet understanding and validate in a new and demanding spreadsheet QA task. We methodically leverage the inherent layout and structure of spreadsheets, demonstrating that SpreadsheetLLM is highly effective across a variety of spreadsheet tasks.

As generative large language models (LLMs) grow more performant and prevalent, we must develop comprehensive enough tools to measure and improve their fairness. Different prompt-based datasets can be used to measure social bias across multiple text domains and demographic axes, meaning that testing LLMs on more datasets can potentially help us characterize their biases more fully, and better ensure equal and equitable treatment of marginalized demographic groups. In this work, our focus is two-fold: (1) Benchmarking: a comparison of 6 different prompt-based bias and toxicity metrics across 12 demographic axes and 5 families of generative LLMs. Out of those 6 metrics, AdvPromptSet and HolisticBiasR are novel datasets proposed in the paper. The comparison of those benchmarks gives us insights about the bias and toxicity of the compared models. Therefore, we explore the frequency of demographic terms in common LLM pre-training corpora and how this may relate to model biases. (2) Mitigation: we conduct a comprehensive study of how well 3 bias/toxicity mitigation techniques perform across our suite of measurements. ROBBIE aims to provide insights for practitioners while deploying a model, emphasizing the need to not only measure potential harms, but also understand how they arise by characterizing the data, mitigate harms once found, and balance any trade-offs. We open-source our analysis code in hopes of encouraging broader measurements of bias in future LLMs.

The recently released GPT-4 Code Interpreter has demonstrated remarkable proficiency in solving challenging math problems, primarily attributed to its ability to seamlessly reason with natural language, generate code, execute code, and continue reasoning based on the execution output. In this paper, we present a method to fine-tune open-source language models, enabling them to use code for modeling and deriving math equations and, consequently, enhancing their mathematical reasoning abilities. We propose a method of generating novel and high-quality datasets with math problems and their code-based solutions, referred to as MathCodeInstruct. Each solution interleaves natural language, code, and execution results. We also introduce a customized supervised fine-tuning and inference approach. This approach yields the MathCoder models, a family of models capable of generating code-based solutions for solving challenging math problems. Impressively, the MathCoder models achieve state-of-the-art scores among open-source LLMs on the MATH (45.2%) and GSM8K (83.9%) datasets, substantially outperforming other open-source alternatives. Notably, the MathCoder model not only surpasses ChatGPT-3.5 and PaLM-2 on GSM8K and MATH but also outperforms GPT-4 on the competition-level MATH dataset. The dataset and models will be released at https://github.com/mathllm/MathCoder.

This paper explores the use of open generative Large Language Models (LLMs) for annotation tasks in the social sciences. The study highlights the challenges associated with proprietary models, such as limited reproducibility and privacy concerns, and advocates for the adoption of open (source) models that can be operated on independent devices. Two examples of annotation tasks, sentiment analysis in tweets and identification of leisure activities in childhood aspirational essays are provided. The study evaluates the performance of different prompting strategies and models (neural-chat-7b-v3-2, Starling-LM-7B-alpha, openchat_3.5, zephyr-7b-alpha and zephyr-7b-beta). The results indicate the need for careful validation and tailored prompt engineering. The study highlights the advantages of open models for data privacy and reproducibility.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often do not perform well on queries that require the aggregation of information across texts. To better evaluate this setting and facilitate modeling efforts, we introduce TACT - Text And Calculations through Tables, a dataset crafted to evaluate LLMs' reasoning and computational abilities using complex instructions. TACT contains challenging instructions that demand stitching information scattered across one or more texts, and performing complex integration on this information to generate the answer. We construct this dataset by leveraging an existing dataset of texts and their associated tables. For each such tables, we formulate new queries, and gather their respective answers. We demonstrate that all contemporary LLMs perform poorly on this dataset, achieving an accuracy below 38\%. To pinpoint the difficulties and thoroughly dissect the problem, we analyze model performance across three components: table-generation, Pandas command-generation, and execution. Unexpectedly, we discover that each component presents substantial challenges for current LLMs. These insights lead us to propose a focused modeling framework, which we refer to as IE as a tool. Specifically, we propose to add "tools" for each of the above steps, and implement each such tool with few-shot prompting. This approach shows an improvement over existing prompting techniques, offering a promising direction for enhancing model capabilities in these tasks.

Program synthesis strives to generate a computer program as a solution to a given problem specification, expressed with input-output examples or natural language descriptions. The prevalence of large language models advances the state-of-the-art for program synthesis, though limited training resources and data impede open access to such models. To democratize this, we train and release a family of large language models up to 16.1B parameters, called CODEGEN, on natural language and programming language data, and open source the training library JAXFORMER. We show the utility of the trained model by demonstrating that it is competitive with the previous state-of-the-art on zero-shot Python code generation on HumanEval. We further investigate the multi-step paradigm for program synthesis, where a single program is factorized into multiple prompts specifying subproblems. To this end, we construct an open benchmark, Multi-Turn Programming Benchmark (MTPB), consisting of 115 diverse problem sets that are factorized into multi-turn prompts. Our analysis on MTPB shows that the same intent provided to CODEGEN in multi-turn fashion significantly improves program synthesis over that provided as a single turn. We make the training library JAXFORMER and model checkpoints available as open source contribution: https://github.com/salesforce/CodeGen.

Large language models (LLMs) have made significant progress in generating codes from textual prompts. However, existing benchmarks have mainly concentrated on translating English prompts to multilingual codes or have been constrained to very limited natural languages (NLs). These benchmarks have overlooked the vast landscape of massively multilingual NL to multilingual code, leaving a critical gap in the evaluation of multilingual LLMs. In response, we introduce HumanEval-XL, a massively multilingual code generation benchmark specifically crafted to address this deficiency. HumanEval-XL establishes connections between 23 NLs and 12 programming languages (PLs), and comprises of a collection of 22,080 prompts with an average of 8.33 test cases. By ensuring parallel data across multiple NLs and PLs, HumanEval-XL offers a comprehensive evaluation platform for multilingual LLMs, allowing the assessment of the understanding of different NLs. Our work serves as a pioneering step towards filling the void in evaluating NL generalization in the area of multilingual code generation. We make our evaluation code and data publicly available at https://github.com/FloatAI/HumanEval-XL.

Without accurate transcription of numerical data in scientific documents, a scientist cannot draw accurate conclusions. Unfortunately, the process of copying numerical data from one paper to another is prone to human error. In this paper, we propose to meet this challenge through the novel task of automatic table verification (AutoTV), in which the objective is to verify the accuracy of numerical data in tables by cross-referencing cited sources. To support this task, we propose a new benchmark, arXiVeri, which comprises tabular data drawn from open-access academic papers on arXiv. We introduce metrics to evaluate the performance of a table verifier in two key areas: (i) table matching, which aims to identify the source table in a cited document that corresponds to a target table, and (ii) cell matching, which aims to locate shared cells between a target and source table and identify their row and column indices accurately. By leveraging the flexible capabilities of modern large language models (LLMs), we propose simple baselines for table verification. Our findings highlight the complexity of this task, even for state-of-the-art LLMs like OpenAI's GPT-4. The code and benchmark will be made publicly available.

Statically analyzing dynamically-typed code is a challenging endeavor, as even seemingly trivial tasks such as determining the targets of procedure calls are non-trivial without knowing the types of objects at compile time. Addressing this challenge, gradual typing is increasingly added to dynamically-typed languages, a prominent example being TypeScript that introduces static typing to JavaScript. Gradual typing improves the developer's ability to verify program behavior, contributing to robust, secure and debuggable programs. In practice, however, users only sparsely annotate types directly. At the same time, conventional type inference faces performance-related challenges as program size grows. Statistical techniques based on machine learning offer faster inference, but although recent approaches demonstrate overall improved accuracy, they still perform significantly worse on user-defined types than on the most common built-in types. Limiting their real-world usefulness even more, they rarely integrate with user-facing applications. We propose CodeTIDAL5, a Transformer-based model trained to reliably predict type annotations. For effective result retrieval and re-integration, we extract usage slices from a program's code property graph. Comparing our approach against recent neural type inference systems, our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art by 7.85% on the ManyTypes4TypeScript benchmark, achieving 71.27% accuracy overall. Furthermore, we present JoernTI, an integration of our approach into Joern, an open source static analysis tool, and demonstrate that the analysis benefits from the additional type information. As our model allows for fast inference times even on commodity CPUs, making our system available through Joern leads to high accessibility and facilitates security research.

One core capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) is to follow natural language instructions. However, the evaluation of such abilities is not standardized: Human evaluations are expensive, slow, and not objectively reproducible, while LLM-based auto-evaluation is potentially biased or limited by the ability of the evaluator LLM. To overcome these issues, we introduce Instruction-Following Eval (IFEval) for large language models. IFEval is a straightforward and easy-to-reproduce evaluation benchmark. It focuses on a set of "verifiable instructions" such as "write in more than 400 words" and "mention the keyword of AI at least 3 times". We identified 25 types of those verifiable instructions and constructed around 500 prompts, with each prompt containing one or more verifiable instructions. We show evaluation results of two widely available LLMs on the market. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/instruction_following_eval

Motivated by the increasing popularity of code generation from human descriptions using large language models (LLMs), several benchmarks have been proposed to assess the capabilities of existing and emerging models. This study presents a large-scale human evaluation of HumanEval and MBPP, two widely used benchmarks for Python code generation, focusing on their diversity and difficulty. Our findings reveal a significant bias towards a limited number of programming concepts, with negligible or no representation of most concepts. Additionally, we identify a concerningly high proportion of easy programming questions, potentially leading to an overestimation of model performance on code generation tasks.

Tool-augmented Large Language Models (TALM) are known to enhance the skillset of large language models (LLM), thereby, leading to their improved reasoning abilities across many tasks. While, TALMs have been successfully employed in different question-answering benchmarks, their efficacy on complex mathematical reasoning benchmarks, and the potential complimentary benefits offered by tools for knowledge retrieval and mathematical equation solving, are open research questions. In this work, we present MATHSENSEI, a tool-augmented large language model for mathematical reasoning. Augmented with tools for knowledge retrieval (Bing Web Search), program execution (Python), and symbolic equation solving (Wolfram-Alpha), we study the complimentary benefits of these tools through evaluations on mathematical reasoning datasets. We perform exhaustive ablations on MATH,a popular dataset for evaluating mathematical reasoning on diverse mathematical disciplines. We also conduct experiments involving well-known tool planners to study the impact of tool sequencing on the model performance. MATHSENSEI achieves 13.5% better accuracy over gpt-3.5-turbo with chain-of-thought on the MATH dataset. We further observe that TALMs are not as effective for simpler math word problems (in GSM-8k), and the benefit increases as the complexity and required knowledge increases (progressively over AQuA, MMLU-Math, and higher level complex questions in MATH). The code and data are available at https://github.com/Debrup-61/MathSensei.

Today, users ask Large language models (LLMs) as assistants to answer queries that require external knowledge; they ask about the weather in a specific city, about stock prices, and even about where specific locations are within their neighborhood. These queries require the LLM to produce code that invokes external APIs to answer the user's question, yet LLMs rarely produce correct code on the first try, requiring iterative code refinement upon execution results. In addition, using LLM assistants to support high query volumes can be expensive. In this work, we contribute a framework, EcoAssistant, that enables LLMs to answer code-driven queries more affordably and accurately. EcoAssistant contains three components. First, it allows the LLM assistants to converse with an automatic code executor to iteratively refine code or to produce answers based on the execution results. Second, we use a hierarchy of LLM assistants, which attempts to answer the query with weaker, cheaper LLMs before backing off to stronger, expensive ones. Third, we retrieve solutions from past successful queries as in-context demonstrations to help subsequent queries. Empirically, we show that EcoAssistant offers distinct advantages for affordability and accuracy, surpassing GPT-4 by 10 points of success rate with less than 50% of GPT-4's cost.

Over the past few years, various domain-specific pretrained language models (PLMs) have been proposed and have outperformed general-domain PLMs in specialized areas such as biomedical, scientific, and clinical domains. In addition, financial PLMs have been studied because of the high economic impact of financial data analysis. However, we found that financial PLMs were not pretrained on sufficiently diverse financial data. This lack of diverse training data leads to a subpar generalization performance, resulting in general-purpose PLMs, including BERT, often outperforming financial PLMs on many downstream tasks. To address this issue, we collected a broad range of financial corpus and trained the Financial Language Model (FiLM) on these diverse datasets. Our experimental results confirm that FiLM outperforms not only existing financial PLMs but also general domain PLMs. Furthermore, we provide empirical evidence that this improvement can be achieved even for unseen corpus groups.

This paper introduces CodeGemma, a collection of specialized open code models built on top of Gemma, capable of a variety of code and natural language generation tasks. We release three model variants. CodeGemma 7B pretrained (PT) and instruction-tuned (IT) variants have remarkably resilient natural language understanding, excel in mathematical reasoning, and match code capabilities of other open models. CodeGemma 2B is a state-of-the-art code completion model designed for fast code infilling and open-ended generation in latency-sensitive settings.

Automated software engineering has been greatly empowered by the recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) for programming. While current benchmarks have shown that LLMs can perform various software engineering tasks like human developers, the majority of their evaluations are limited to short and self-contained algorithmic tasks. Solving challenging and practical programming tasks requires the capability of utilizing diverse function calls as tools to efficiently implement functionalities like data analysis and web development. In addition, using multiple tools to solve a task needs compositional reasoning by accurately understanding complex instructions. Fulfilling both of these characteristics can pose a great challenge for LLMs. To assess how well LLMs can solve challenging and practical programming tasks, we introduce Bench, a benchmark that challenges LLMs to invoke multiple function calls as tools from 139 libraries and 7 domains for 1,140 fine-grained programming tasks. To evaluate LLMs rigorously, each programming task encompasses 5.6 test cases with an average branch coverage of 99%. In addition, we propose a natural-language-oriented variant of Bench, Benchi, that automatically transforms the original docstrings into short instructions only with essential information. Our extensive evaluation of 60 LLMs shows that LLMs are not yet capable of following complex instructions to use function calls precisely, with scores up to 60%, significantly lower than the human performance of 97%. The results underscore the need for further advancements in this area.

Prompt engineering is critical for the development of LLM-based applications. However, it is usually done manually in a "trial and error" fashion. This manual procedure can be time consuming, ineffective, and the generated prompts are, in a lot of cases, sub-optimal. Even for the prompts which seemingly work well, there is always a lingering question: can the prompts be made better with further modifications? To address these questions, in this paper, we investigate prompt engineering automation. We consider a specific use case scenario in which developers/users have drafted initial prompts, but lack the time/expertise to optimize them. We propose PRewrite, an automated tool to rewrite these drafts and to generate highly effective new prompts. PRewrite is based on the Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework which allows for end-to-end optimization and our design allows the RL search to happen in a large action space. The automated tool leverages manually crafted prompts as starting points which makes the rewriting procedure more guided and efficient. The generated prompts are human readable, and self-explanatory, unlike some of those in previous works. We conducted extensive experiments on diverse datasets and found that the prompts generated with this new method not only outperform professionally crafted prompts, but also prompts generated with other previously proposed methods.

The remarkable capability of large language models (LLMs) in generating high-quality code has drawn increasing attention in the software testing community. However, existing code LLMs often demonstrate unsatisfactory capabilities in generating accurate and complete tests since they were trained on code snippets collected without differentiating between code for testing purposes and other code. In this paper, we present a large-scale dataset UniTSyn, which is capable of enhancing the prowess of LLMs for Unit Test Synthesis. Associating tests with the tested functions is crucial for LLMs to infer the expected behavior and the logic paths to be verified. By leveraging Language Server Protocol, UniTSyn achieves the challenging goal of collecting focal-test pairs without per-project execution setups or per-language heuristics that tend to be fragile and difficult to scale. It contains 2.7 million focal-test pairs across five mainstream programming languages, making it possible to be utilized for enhancing the test generation ability of LLMs. The details of UniTSyn can be found in Table 1. Our experiments demonstrate that, by building an autoregressive model based on UniTSyn, we can achieve significant benefits in learning and understanding unit test representations, resulting in improved generation accuracy and code coverage across all evaluated programming languages. Code and data will be publicly available.

Data standardization is a crucial part of the data science life cycle. While tools like Pandas offer robust functionalities, their complexity and the manual effort required for customizing code to diverse column types pose significant challenges. Although large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have shown promise in automating this process through natural language understanding and code generation, it still demands expert-level programming knowledge and continuous interaction for prompt refinement. To solve these challenges, our key idea is to propose a Python library with declarative, unified APIs for standardizing different column types, simplifying the LLM's code generation with concise API calls. We first propose Dataprep.Clean, a component of the Dataprep Python Library, significantly reduces the coding complexity by enabling the standardization of specific column types with a single line of code. Then, we introduce the CleanAgent framework integrating Dataprep.Clean and LLM-based agents to automate the data standardization process. With CleanAgent, data scientists only need to provide their requirements once, allowing for a hands-free process. To demonstrate the practical utility of CleanAgent, we developed a user-friendly web application, allowing attendees to interact with it using real-world datasets.

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

This paper revisits recent code similarity evaluation metrics, particularly focusing on the application of Abstract Syntax Tree (AST) editing distance in diverse programming languages. In particular, we explore the usefulness of these metrics and compare them to traditional sequence similarity metrics. Our experiments showcase the effectiveness of AST editing distance in capturing intricate code structures, revealing a high correlation with established metrics. Furthermore, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of AST editing distance and prompt-based GPT similarity scores in comparison to BLEU score, execution match, and Jaccard Similarity. We propose, optimize, and publish an adaptable metric that demonstrates effectiveness across all tested languages, representing an enhanced version of Tree Similarity of Edit Distance (TSED).

Large language models that exhibit instruction-following behaviour represent one of the biggest recent upheavals in conversational interfaces, a trend in large part fuelled by the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT, a proprietary large language model for text generation fine-tuned through reinforcement learning from human feedback (LLM+RLHF). We review the risks of relying on proprietary software and survey the first crop of open-source projects of comparable architecture and functionality. The main contribution of this paper is to show that openness is differentiated, and to offer scientific documentation of degrees of openness in this fast-moving field. We evaluate projects in terms of openness of code, training data, model weights, RLHF data, licensing, scientific documentation, and access methods. We find that while there is a fast-growing list of projects billing themselves as 'open source', many inherit undocumented data of dubious legality, few share the all-important instruction-tuning (a key site where human annotation labour is involved), and careful scientific documentation is exceedingly rare. Degrees of openness are relevant to fairness and accountability at all points, from data collection and curation to model architecture, and from training and fine-tuning to release and deployment.

Unequal access to costly datasets essential for empirical research has long hindered researchers from disadvantaged institutions, limiting their ability to contribute to their fields and advance their careers. Recent breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to democratize data access by automating data collection from unstructured sources. We develop and evaluate a novel methodology using GPT-4o-mini within a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework to collect data from corporate disclosures. Our approach achieves human-level accuracy in collecting CEO pay ratios from approximately 10,000 proxy statements and Critical Audit Matters (CAMs) from more than 12,000 10-K filings, with LLM processing times of 9 and 40 minutes respectively, each at a cost under $10. This stands in stark contrast to the hundreds of hours needed for manual collection or the thousands of dollars required for commercial database subscriptions. To foster a more inclusive research community by empowering researchers with limited resources to explore new avenues of inquiry, we share our methodology and the resulting datasets.

The recent explosion in the capabilities of large language models has led to a wave of interest in how best to prompt a model to perform a given task. While it may be tempting to simply choose a prompt based on average performance on a validation set, this can lead to a deployment where unexpectedly poor responses are generated, especially for the worst-off users. To mitigate this prospect, we propose Prompt Risk Control, a lightweight framework for selecting a prompt based on rigorous upper bounds on families of informative risk measures. We offer methods for producing bounds on a diverse set of metrics, including quantities that measure worst-case responses and disparities in generation quality across the population of users. In addition, we extend the underlying statistical bounding techniques to accommodate the possibility of distribution shifts in deployment. Experiments on applications such as open-ended chat, medical question summarization, and code generation highlight how such a framework can foster responsible deployment by reducing the risk of the worst outcomes.

This study develops FinText, a financial word embedding compiled from 15 years of business news archives. The results show that FinText produces substantially more accurate results than general word embeddings based on the gold-standard financial benchmark we introduced. In contrast to well-known econometric models, and over the sample period from 27 July 2007 to 27 January 2022 for 23 NASDAQ stocks, using stock-related news, our simple natural language processing model supported by different word embeddings improves realised volatility forecasts on high volatility days. This improvement in realised volatility forecasting performance switches to normal volatility days when general hot news is used. By utilising SHAP, an Explainable AI method, we also identify and classify key phrases in stock-related and general hot news that moved volatility.

The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code generation in data science offers substantial potential for enhancing tasks such as data manipulation, statistical analysis, and visualization. However, the effectiveness of these models in the data science domain remains underexplored. This paper presents a controlled experiment that empirically assesses the performance of four leading LLM-based AI assistants-Microsoft Copilot (GPT-4 Turbo), ChatGPT (o1-preview), Claude (3.5 Sonnet), and Perplexity Labs (Llama-3.1-70b-instruct)-on a diverse set of data science coding challenges sourced from the Stratacratch platform. Using the Goal-Question-Metric (GQM) approach, we evaluated each model's effectiveness across task types (Analytical, Algorithm, Visualization) and varying difficulty levels. Our findings reveal that all models exceeded a 50% baseline success rate, confirming their capability beyond random chance. Notably, only ChatGPT and Claude achieved success rates significantly above a 60% baseline, though none of the models reached a 70% threshold, indicating limitations in higher standards. ChatGPT demonstrated consistent performance across varying difficulty levels, while Claude's success rate fluctuated with task complexity. Hypothesis testing indicates that task type does not significantly impact success rate overall. For analytical tasks, efficiency analysis shows no significant differences in execution times, though ChatGPT tended to be slower and less predictable despite high success rates. This study provides a structured, empirical evaluation of LLMs in data science, delivering insights that support informed model selection tailored to specific task demands. Our findings establish a framework for future AI assessments, emphasizing the value of rigorous evaluation beyond basic accuracy measures.

Several recent advances in AI systems (e.g., Tree-of-Thoughts and Program-Aided Language Models) solve problems by providing a "scaffolding" program that structures multiple calls to language models to generate better outputs. A scaffolding program is written in a programming language such as Python. In this work, we use a language-model-infused scaffolding program to improve itself. We start with a seed "improver" that improves an input program according to a given utility function by querying a language model several times and returning the best solution. We then run this seed improver to improve itself. Across a small set of downstream tasks, the resulting improved improver generates programs with significantly better performance than its seed improver. Afterward, we analyze the variety of self-improvement strategies proposed by the language model, including beam search, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing. Since the language models themselves are not altered, this is not full recursive self-improvement. Nonetheless, it demonstrates that a modern language model, GPT-4 in our proof-of-concept experiments, is capable of writing code that can call itself to improve itself. We critically consider concerns around the development of self-improving technologies and evaluate the frequency with which the generated code bypasses a sandbox.

Reward modeling (a.k.a., preference modeling) is instrumental for aligning large language models with human preferences, particularly within the context of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). While conventional reward models (RMs) have exhibited remarkable scalability, they oft struggle with fundamental functionality such as arithmetic computation, code execution, and factual lookup. In this paper, we propose a tool-augmented preference modeling approach, named Themis, to address these limitations by empowering RMs with access to external environments, including calculators and search engines. This approach not only fosters synergy between tool utilization and reward grading but also enhances interpretive capacity and scoring reliability. Our study delves into the integration of external tools into RMs, enabling them to interact with diverse external sources and construct task-specific tool engagement and reasoning traces in an autoregressive manner. We validate our approach across a wide range of domains, incorporating seven distinct external tools. Our experimental results demonstrate a noteworthy overall improvement of 17.7% across eight tasks in preference ranking. Furthermore, our approach outperforms Gopher 280B by 7.3% on TruthfulQA task in zero-shot evaluation. In human evaluations, RLHF trained with Themis attains an average win rate of 32% when compared to baselines across four distinct tasks. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive collection of tool-related RM datasets, incorporating data from seven distinct tool APIs, totaling 15,000 instances. We have made the code, data, and model checkpoints publicly available to facilitate and inspire further research advancements\url{https://github.com/ernie-research/Tool-Augmented-Reward-Model}.

Contemporary LLMs pretrained on code are capable of succeeding at a wide variety of programming tasks. However, their performance is very sensitive to syntactic features, such as the names of variables and types, the structure of code, and presence of type hints. We contribute an inference-time technique to make CodeLLMs more robust to syntactic distractors that are semantically irrelevant. Our methodology relies on activation steering, which involves editing internal model activations to steer the model towards the correct prediction. We contribute a novel way to construct steering vectors by taking inspiration from mutation testing, which constructs minimal semantics-breaking code edits. In contrast, we construct steering vectors from semantics-preserving code edits. We apply our approach to the task of type prediction for the gradually typed languages Python and TypeScript. This approach corrects up to 90% of type mispredictions. Finally, we show that steering vectors calculated from Python activations reliably correct type mispredictions in TypeScript, and vice versa. This result suggests that LLMs may be learning to transfer knowledge of types across programming languages.

Language models have outpaced our ability to evaluate them effectively, but for their future development it is essential to study the frontier of their capabilities. We consider real-world software engineering to be a rich, sustainable, and challenging testbed for evaluating the next generation of language models. We therefore introduce SWE-bench, an evaluation framework including 2,294 software engineering problems drawn from real GitHub issues and corresponding pull requests across 12 popular Python repositories. Given a codebase along with a description of an issue to be resolved, a language model is tasked with editing the codebase to address the issue. Resolving issues in SWE-bench frequently requires understanding and coordinating changes across multiple functions, classes, and even files simultaneously, calling for models to interact with execution environments, process extremely long contexts and perform complex reasoning that goes far beyond traditional code generation. Our evaluations show that both state-of-the-art proprietary models and our fine-tuned model SWE-Llama can resolve only the simplest issues. Claude 2 and GPT-4 solve a mere 4.8% and 1.7% of instances respectively, even when provided with an oracle retriever. Advances on SWE-bench represent steps towards LMs that are more practical, intelligent, and autonomous.

The stock market is a network which provides a platform for almost all major economic transactions. While investing in the stock market is a good idea, investing in individual stocks may not be, especially for the casual investor. Smart stock-picking requires in-depth research and plenty of dedication. Predicting this stock value offers enormous arbitrage profit opportunities. This attractiveness of finding a solution has prompted researchers to find a way past problems like volatility, seasonality, and dependence on time. This paper surveys recent literature in the domain of natural language processing and machine learning techniques used to predict stock market movements. The main contributions of this paper include the sophisticated categorizations of many recent articles and the illustration of the recent trends of research in stock market prediction and its related areas.

The class of tree-adjoining languages can be characterized by various two-level formalisms, consisting of a context-free grammar (CFG) or pushdown automaton (PDA) controlling another CFG or PDA. These four formalisms are equivalent to tree-adjoining grammars (TAG), linear indexed grammars (LIG), pushdown-adjoining automata (PAA), and embedded pushdown automata (EPDA). We define semiring-weighted versions of the above two-level formalisms, and we design new algorithms for computing their stringsums (the weight of all derivations of a string) and allsums (the weight of all derivations). From these, we also immediately obtain stringsum and allsum algorithms for TAG, LIG, PAA, and EPDA. For LIG, our algorithm is more time-efficient by a factor of O(n|N|) (where n is the string length and |N| is the size of the nonterminal set) and more space-efficient by a factor of O(|Gamma|) (where |Gamma| is the size of the stack alphabet) than the algorithm of Vijay-Shanker and Weir (1989). For EPDA, our algorithm is both more space-efficient and time-efficient than the algorithm of Alonso et al. (2001) by factors of O(|Gamma|^2) and O(|Gamma|^3), respectively. Finally, we give the first PAA stringsum and allsum algorithms.

Program synthesis aims to create accurate, executable code from natural language descriptions. This field has leveraged the power of reinforcement learning (RL) in conjunction with large language models (LLMs), significantly enhancing code generation capabilities. This integration focuses on directly optimizing functional correctness, transcending conventional supervised losses. While current literature predominantly favors policy-based algorithms, attributes of program synthesis suggest a natural compatibility with value-based methods. This stems from rich collection of off-policy programs developed by human programmers, and the straightforward verification of generated programs through automated unit testing (i.e. easily obtainable rewards in RL language). Diverging from the predominant use of policy-based algorithms, our work explores the applicability of value-based approaches, leading to the development of our B-Coder (pronounced Bellman coder). Yet, training value-based methods presents challenges due to the enormous search space inherent to program synthesis. To this end, we propose an initialization protocol for RL agents utilizing pre-trained LMs and a conservative Bellman operator to reduce training complexities. Moreover, we demonstrate how to leverage the learned value functions as a dual strategy to post-process generated programs. Our empirical evaluations demonstrated B-Coder's capability in achieving state-of-the-art performance compared with policy-based methods. Remarkably, this achievement is reached with minimal reward engineering effort, highlighting the effectiveness of value-based RL, independent of reward designs.

This project focuses on enhancing open-source large language models through instruction-tuning and providing comprehensive evaluations of their performance. We explore how various training data factors, such as quantity, quality, and linguistic distribution, influence the performance of instruction-tuned models trained on publicly accessible high-quality instruction datasets for both English and Chinese languages. Our goal is to supplement evaluation with quantitative analyses, providing valuable insights for the continued advancement of open-source chat models. Our model, data, and code are publicly available for others to use and build upon.

Prompt-based probing has been widely used in evaluating the abilities of pretrained language models (PLMs). Unfortunately, recent studies have discovered such an evaluation may be inaccurate, inconsistent and unreliable. Furthermore, the lack of understanding its inner workings, combined with its wide applicability, has the potential to lead to unforeseen risks for evaluating and applying PLMs in real-world applications. To discover, understand and quantify the risks, this paper investigates the prompt-based probing from a causal view, highlights three critical biases which could induce biased results and conclusions, and proposes to conduct debiasing via causal intervention. This paper provides valuable insights for the design of unbiased datasets, better probing frameworks and more reliable evaluations of pretrained language models. Furthermore, our conclusions also echo that we need to rethink the criteria for identifying better pretrained language models. We openly released the source code and data at https://github.com/c-box/causalEval.

Prompting and fine-tuning have emerged as two competing paradigms for augmenting language models with new capabilities, such as the use of tools. Prompting approaches are quick to set up but rely on providing explicit demonstrations of each tool's usage in the model's prompt, thus coupling tool use to the task at hand and limiting generalisation. Fine-tuning removes the need for task-specific demonstrations of tool usage at runtime; however, this ties new capabilities to a single model, thus making already-heavier setup costs a recurring expense. In this paper, we introduce language hooks, a novel framework for augmenting language models with new capabilities that is decoupled both from the model's task-specific prompt and from the model itself. The language hook algorithm interleaves text generation by the base model with the execution of modular programs that trigger conditionally based on the existing text and the available capabilities. Upon triggering, programs may call external tools, auxiliary language models (e.g. using tool specific prompts), and modify the existing context. We benchmark our method against state-of-the-art baselines, find that it outperforms task-aware approaches, and demonstrate its ability to generalise to novel tasks.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This paper introduces a new tool, OccCANINE, to automatically transform occupational descriptions into the HISCO classification system. The manual work involved in processing and classifying occupational descriptions is error-prone, tedious, and time-consuming. We finetune a preexisting language model (CANINE) to do this automatically thereby performing in seconds and minutes what previously took days and weeks. The model is trained on 14 million pairs of occupational descriptions and HISCO codes in 13 different languages contributed by 22 different sources. Our approach is shown to have accuracy, recall and precision above 90 percent. Our tool breaks the metaphorical HISCO barrier and makes this data readily available for analysis of occupational structures with broad applicability in economics, economic history and various related disciplines.

We introduce SentEval, a toolkit for evaluating the quality of universal sentence representations. SentEval encompasses a variety of tasks, including binary and multi-class classification, natural language inference and sentence similarity. The set of tasks was selected based on what appears to be the community consensus regarding the appropriate evaluations for universal sentence representations. The toolkit comes with scripts to download and preprocess datasets, and an easy interface to evaluate sentence encoders. The aim is to provide a fairer, less cumbersome and more centralized way for evaluating sentence representations.

We introduce the AutoGRAMS framework for programming multi-step interactions with language models. AutoGRAMS represents AI agents as a graph, where each node can execute either a language modeling instruction or traditional code. Likewise, transitions in the graph can be governed by either language modeling decisions or traditional branch logic. AutoGRAMS supports using variables as memory and allows nodes to call other AutoGRAMS graphs as functions. We show how AutoGRAMS can be used to design highly sophisticated agents, including self-referential agents that can modify their own graph. AutoGRAMS's graph-centric approach aids interpretability, controllability, and safety during the design, development, and deployment of AI agents. We provide our framework as open source at https://github.com/autograms/autograms .

The advent of pre-trained code language models (CodeLMs) has lead to significant progress in language-to-code generation. State-of-the-art approaches in this area combine CodeLM decoding with sample pruning and reranking using test cases or heuristics based on the execution results. However, it is challenging to obtain test cases for many real-world language-to-code applications, and heuristics cannot well capture the semantic features of the execution results, such as data type and value range, which often indicates the correctness of the program. In this work, we propose LEVER, a simple approach to improve language-to-code generation by learning to verify the generated programs with their execution results. Specifically, we train verifiers to determine whether a program sampled from the CodeLM is correct or not based on the natural language input, the program itself and its execution results. The sampled programs are reranked by combining the verification score with the CodeLM generation probability, and marginalizing over programs with the same execution results. On four datasets across the domains of table QA, math QA and basic Python programming, LEVER consistently improves over the base CodeLMs (4.6% to 10.9% with code-davinci-002) and achieves new state-of-the-art results on all of them.

The BigCode project is an open-scientific collaboration working on the responsible development of large language models for code. This tech report describes the progress of the collaboration until December 2022, outlining the current state of the Personally Identifiable Information (PII) redaction pipeline, the experiments conducted to de-risk the model architecture, and the experiments investigating better preprocessing methods for the training data. We train 1.1B parameter models on the Java, JavaScript, and Python subsets of The Stack and evaluate them on the MultiPL-E text-to-code benchmark. We find that more aggressive filtering of near-duplicates can further boost performance and, surprisingly, that selecting files from repositories with 5+ GitHub stars deteriorates performance significantly. Our best model outperforms previous open-source multilingual code generation models (InCoder-6.7B and CodeGen-Multi-2.7B) in both left-to-right generation and infilling on the Java, JavaScript, and Python portions of MultiPL-E, despite being a substantially smaller model. All models are released under an OpenRAIL license at https://hf.co/bigcode.

We introduce meta-prompting, an effective scaffolding technique designed to enhance the functionality of language models (LMs). This approach transforms a single LM into a multi-faceted conductor, adept at managing and integrating multiple independent LM queries. By employing high-level instructions, meta-prompting guides the LM to break down complex tasks into smaller, more manageable subtasks. These subtasks are then handled by distinct "expert" instances of the same LM, each operating under specific, tailored instructions. Central to this process is the LM itself, in its role as the conductor, which ensures seamless communication and effective integration of the outputs from these expert models. It additionally employs its inherent critical thinking and robust verification processes to refine and authenticate the end result. This collaborative prompting approach empowers a single LM to simultaneously act as a comprehensive orchestrator and a panel of diverse experts, significantly enhancing its performance across a wide array of tasks. The zero-shot, task-agnostic nature of meta-prompting greatly simplifies user interaction by obviating the need for detailed, task-specific instructions. Furthermore, our research demonstrates the seamless integration of external tools, such as a Python interpreter, into the meta-prompting framework, thereby broadening its applicability and utility. Through rigorous experimentation with GPT-4, we establish the superiority of meta-prompting over conventional scaffolding methods: When averaged across all tasks, including the Game of 24, Checkmate-in-One, and Python Programming Puzzles, meta-prompting, augmented with a Python interpreter functionality, surpasses standard prompting by 17.1%, expert (dynamic) prompting by 17.3%, and multipersona prompting by 15.2%.

In the evolving landscape of software development, Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit a unique phenomenon known as emergent abilities, demonstrating adeptness across numerous tasks, from text summarization to code generation. While these abilities open up novel avenues in software design and crafting, their incorporation presents substantial challenges. Developers grapple with decisions surrounding the direct embedding of LLMs within applications versus employing them for code generation. Moreover, effective prompt design becomes a critical concern, given the necessity of data extraction from natural language outputs. To address these intricacies, this paper introduces AskIt, a domain-specific language (DSL) specifically designed for LLMs. AskIt simplifies LLM integration, offering type-guided output control, template-based function definitions, and a unified interface that diminishes the distinction between LLM-based code generation and application integration. Furthermore, through Programming by Example (PBE), AskIt harnesses the power of few-shot learning at the programming language level. Our evaluations underscore AskIt's potency. Across 50 tasks, AskIt generated concise prompts for the given tasks, achieving a 16.14% reduction in prompt length relative to benchmarks. Additionally, by enabling the transition from direct LLM application usage to function generation, AskIt achieved significant speedups, as observed in our GSM8K benchmark experiments. Through these advancements, AskIt streamlines the integration of LLMs in software development, offering a more efficient, versatile approach for leveraging emergent abilities. The implementations of AskIt in TypeScript and Python are available at https://github.com/katsumiok/ts-askit and https://github.com/katsumiok/pyaskit, respectively.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have revealed new capabilities and opportunities across the technological landscape. However, the practicality of very large LLMs is challenged by their high compute cost, which does not justify the benefits given their limited capability compared to humans. While smaller, more practical LLMs have shown potential in financial analysis, though they are not yet fully proficient, as evidenced by their near-passing performance on the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exam. In this work, we present Financial Analyst Extension to our Text Hyperlocally Augmented Large Language Extension (THaLLE), a series of 8B LLMs consistently achieving highest performance on mock CFA exams against models of comparable size. We thoroughly document the fine-tuning techniques used to facilitate future research. Additionally, we introduce the use of Flare CFA, a publicly available dataset for evaluating LLMs as a financial advisor.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated a remarkable ability to model time series data. These capabilities can be partly explained if LLMs understand basic time series concepts. However, our knowledge of what these models understand about time series data remains relatively limited. To address this gap, we introduce TimeSeriesExam, a configurable and scalable multiple-choice question exam designed to assess LLMs across five core time series understanding categories: pattern recognition, noise understanding, similarity analysis, anomaly detection, and causality analysis. TimeSeriesExam comprises of over 700 questions, procedurally generated using 104 carefully curated templates and iteratively refined to balance difficulty and their ability to discriminate good from bad models. We test 7 state-of-the-art LLMs on the TimeSeriesExam and provide the first comprehensive evaluation of their time series understanding abilities. Our results suggest that closed-source models such as GPT-4 and Gemini understand simple time series concepts significantly better than their open-source counterparts, while all models struggle with complex concepts such as causality analysis. We believe that the ability to programatically generate questions is fundamental to assessing and improving LLM's ability to understand and reason about time series data.

As language models (LMs) advance, interest is growing in applying them to high-stakes societal decisions, such as determining financing or housing eligibility. However, their potential for discrimination in such contexts raises ethical concerns, motivating the need for better methods to evaluate these risks. We present a method for proactively evaluating the potential discriminatory impact of LMs in a wide range of use cases, including hypothetical use cases where they have not yet been deployed. Specifically, we use an LM to generate a wide array of potential prompts that decision-makers may input into an LM, spanning 70 diverse decision scenarios across society, and systematically vary the demographic information in each prompt. Applying this methodology reveals patterns of both positive and negative discrimination in the Claude 2.0 model in select settings when no interventions are applied. While we do not endorse or permit the use of language models to make automated decisions for the high-risk use cases we study, we demonstrate techniques to significantly decrease both positive and negative discrimination through careful prompt engineering, providing pathways toward safer deployment in use cases where they may be appropriate. Our work enables developers and policymakers to anticipate, measure, and address discrimination as language model capabilities and applications continue to expand. We release our dataset and prompts at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Anthropic/discrim-eval

Large Language Models' success on text generation has also made them better at code generation and coding tasks. While a lot of work has demonstrated their remarkable performance on tasks such as code completion and editing, it is still unclear as to why. We help bridge this gap by exploring to what degree auto-regressive models understand the logical constructs of the underlying programs. We propose Counterfactual Analysis for Programming Concept Predicates (CACP) as a counterfactual testing framework to evaluate whether Large Code Models understand programming concepts. With only black-box access to the model, we use CACP to evaluate ten popular Large Code Models for four different programming concepts. Our findings suggest that current models lack understanding of concepts such as data flow and control flow.

Large Language Models (LLMs) changed the way we design and interact with software systems. Their ability to process and extract information from text has drastically improved productivity in a number of routine tasks. Developers that want to include these models in their software stack, however, face a dreadful challenge: debugging LLMs' inconsistent behavior across minor variations of the prompt. We therefore introduce two metrics for classification tasks, namely sensitivity and consistency, which are complementary to task performance. First, sensitivity measures changes of predictions across rephrasings of the prompt, and does not require access to ground truth labels. Instead, consistency measures how predictions vary across rephrasings for elements of the same class. We perform an empirical comparison of these metrics on text classification tasks, using them as guideline for understanding failure modes of the LLM. Our hope is that sensitivity and consistency will be helpful to guide prompt engineering and obtain LLMs that balance robustness with performance.

Learning effective representations of source code is critical for any Machine Learning for Software Engineering (ML4SE) system. Inspired by natural language processing, large language models (LLMs) like Codex and CodeGen treat code as generic sequences of text and are trained on huge corpora of code data, achieving state of the art performance on several software engineering (SE) tasks. However, valid source code, unlike natural language, follows a strict structure and pattern governed by the underlying grammar of the programming language. Current LLMs do not exploit this property of the source code as they treat code like a sequence of tokens and overlook key structural and semantic properties of code that can be extracted from code-views like the Control Flow Graph (CFG), Data Flow Graph (DFG), Abstract Syntax Tree (AST), etc. Unfortunately, the process of generating and integrating code-views for every programming language is cumbersome and time consuming. To overcome this barrier, we propose our tool COMEX - a framework that allows researchers and developers to create and combine multiple code-views which can be used by machine learning (ML) models for various SE tasks. Some salient features of our tool are: (i) it works directly on source code (which need not be compilable), (ii) it currently supports Java and C#, (iii) it can analyze both method-level snippets and program-level snippets by using both intra-procedural and inter-procedural analysis, and (iv) it is easily extendable to other languages as it is built on tree-sitter - a widely used incremental parser that supports over 40 languages. We believe this easy-to-use code-view generation and customization tool will give impetus to research in source code representation learning methods and ML4SE. Tool: https://pypi.org/project/comex - GitHub: https://github.com/IBM/tree-sitter-codeviews - Demo: https://youtu.be/GER6U87FVbU

Chart understanding plays a pivotal role when applying Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to real-world tasks such as analyzing scientific papers or financial reports. However, existing datasets often focus on oversimplified and homogeneous charts with template-based questions, leading to an over-optimistic measure of progress. We demonstrate that although open-source models can appear to outperform strong proprietary models on these benchmarks, a simple stress test with slightly different charts or questions can deteriorate performance by up to 34.5%. In this work, we propose CharXiv, a comprehensive evaluation suite involving 2,323 natural, challenging, and diverse charts from arXiv papers. CharXiv includes two types of questions: 1) descriptive questions about examining basic chart elements and 2) reasoning questions that require synthesizing information across complex visual elements in the chart. To ensure quality, all charts and questions are handpicked, curated, and verified by human experts. Our results reveal a substantial, previously underestimated gap between the reasoning skills of the strongest proprietary model (i.e., GPT-4o), which achieves 47.1% accuracy, and the strongest open-source model (i.e., InternVL Chat V1.5), which achieves 29.2%. All models lag far behind human performance of 80.5%, underscoring weaknesses in the chart understanding capabilities of existing MLLMs. We hope CharXiv facilitates future research on MLLM chart understanding by providing a more realistic and faithful measure of progress. Project page and leaderboard: https://charxiv.github.io/

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have seen considerable advancements and have been applied in diverse fields. Built on the Transformer architecture, these models are trained on extensive datasets, enabling them to understand and generate human language effectively. In the financial domain, the deployment of LLMs is gaining momentum. These models are being utilized for automating financial report generation, forecasting market trends, analyzing investor sentiment, and offering personalized financial advice. Leveraging their natural language processing capabilities, LLMs can distill key insights from vast financial data, aiding institutions in making informed investment choices and enhancing both operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. In this study, we provide a comprehensive overview of the emerging integration of LLMs into various financial tasks. Additionally, we conducted holistic tests on multiple financial tasks through the combination of natural language instructions. Our findings show that GPT-4 effectively follow prompt instructions across various financial tasks. This survey and evaluation of LLMs in the financial domain aim to deepen the understanding of LLMs' current role in finance for both financial practitioners and LLM researchers, identify new research and application prospects, and highlight how these technologies can be leveraged to solve practical challenges in the finance industry.

Recently, large language models (LLMs), especially those that are pretrained on code, have demonstrated strong capabilities in generating programs from natural language inputs in a few-shot or even zero-shot manner. Despite promising results, there is a notable lack of a comprehensive evaluation of these models language-to-code generation capabilities. Existing studies often focus on specific tasks, model architectures, or learning paradigms, leading to a fragmented understanding of the overall landscape. In this work, we present L2CEval, a systematic evaluation of the language-to-code generation capabilities of LLMs on 7 tasks across the domain spectrum of semantic parsing, math reasoning and Python programming, analyzing the factors that potentially affect their performance, such as model size, pretraining data, instruction tuning, and different prompting methods. In addition to assessing model performance, we measure confidence calibration for the models and conduct human evaluations of the output programs. This enables us to identify and analyze the typical failure modes across various tasks and models. L2CEval offers a comprehensive understanding of the capabilities and limitations of LLMs in language-to-code generation. We also release the evaluation framework and all model outputs, hoping to lay the groundwork for further future research in this domain.

Progress in Machine Learning is often driven by the availability of large datasets, and consistent evaluation metrics for comparing modeling approaches. To this end, we present a repository of conversational datasets consisting of hundreds of millions of examples, and a standardised evaluation procedure for conversational response selection models using '1-of-100 accuracy'. The repository contains scripts that allow researchers to reproduce the standard datasets, or to adapt the pre-processing and data filtering steps to their needs. We introduce and evaluate several competitive baselines for conversational response selection, whose implementations are shared in the repository, as well as a neural encoder model that is trained on the entire training set.

We reveal new methods and the theoretical foundations of techniques for editing large language models. We also show how the new theory can be used to assess the editability of models and to expose their susceptibility to previously unknown malicious attacks. Our theoretical approach shows that a single metric (a specific measure of the intrinsic dimensionality of the model's features) is fundamental to predicting the success of popular editing approaches, and reveals new bridges between disparate families of editing methods. We collectively refer to these approaches as stealth editing methods, because they aim to directly and inexpensively update a model's weights to correct the model's responses to known hallucinating prompts without otherwise affecting the model's behaviour, without requiring retraining. By carefully applying the insight gleaned from our theoretical investigation, we are able to introduce a new network block -- named a jet-pack block -- which is optimised for highly selective model editing, uses only standard network operations, and can be inserted into existing networks. The intrinsic dimensionality metric also determines the vulnerability of a language model to a stealth attack: a small change to a model's weights which changes its response to a single attacker-chosen prompt. Stealth attacks do not require access to or knowledge of the model's training data, therefore representing a potent yet previously unrecognised threat to redistributed foundation models. They are computationally simple enough to be implemented in malware in many cases. Extensive experimental results illustrate and support the method and its theoretical underpinnings. Demos and source code for editing language models are available at https://github.com/qinghua-zhou/stealth-edits.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown excellent mastering of human language, but still struggle in real-world applications that require mathematical problem-solving. While many strategies and datasets to enhance LLMs' mathematics are developed, it remains a challenge to simultaneously maintain and improve both language and mathematical capabilities in deployed LLM systems.In this work, we tailor the Self-Critique pipeline, which addresses the challenge in the feedback learning stage of LLM alignment. We first train a general Math-Critique model from the LLM itself to provide feedback signals. Then, we sequentially employ rejective fine-tuning and direct preference optimization over the LLM's own generations for data collection. Based on ChatGLM3-32B, we conduct a series of experiments on both academic and our newly created challenging dataset, MathUserEval. Results show that our pipeline significantly enhances the LLM's mathematical problem-solving while still improving its language ability, outperforming LLMs that could be two times larger. Related techniques have been deployed to ChatGLM\url{https://chatglm.cn}, an online serving LLM. Related evaluation dataset and scripts are released at https://github.com/THUDM/ChatGLM-Math.

In the field of quantitative trading, it is common practice to transform raw historical stock data into indicative signals for the market trend. Such signals are called alpha factors. Alphas in formula forms are more interpretable and thus favored by practitioners concerned with risk. In practice, a set of formulaic alphas is often used together for better modeling precision, so we need to find synergistic formulaic alpha sets that work well together. However, most traditional alpha generators mine alphas one by one separately, overlooking the fact that the alphas would be combined later. In this paper, we propose a new alpha-mining framework that prioritizes mining a synergistic set of alphas, i.e., it directly uses the performance of the downstream combination model to optimize the alpha generator. Our framework also leverages the strong exploratory capabilities of reinforcement learning~(RL) to better explore the vast search space of formulaic alphas. The contribution to the combination models' performance is assigned to be the return used in the RL process, driving the alpha generator to find better alphas that improve upon the current set. Experimental evaluations on real-world stock market data demonstrate both the effectiveness and the efficiency of our framework for stock trend forecasting. The investment simulation results show that our framework is able to achieve higher returns compared to previous approaches.

We present lambeq, the first high-level Python library for Quantum Natural Language Processing (QNLP). The open-source toolkit offers a detailed hierarchy of modules and classes implementing all stages of a pipeline for converting sentences to string diagrams, tensor networks, and quantum circuits ready to be used on a quantum computer. lambeq supports syntactic parsing, rewriting and simplification of string diagrams, ansatz creation and manipulation, as well as a number of compositional models for preparing quantum-friendly representations of sentences, employing various degrees of syntax sensitivity. We present the generic architecture and describe the most important modules in detail, demonstrating the usage with illustrative examples. Further, we test the toolkit in practice by using it to perform a number of experiments on simple NLP tasks, implementing both classical and quantum pipelines.

Auto-regressive large language models (LLMs) have yielded impressive performance in many real-world tasks. However, the new paradigm of these LLMs also exposes novel threats. In this paper, we explore their vulnerability to inference cost attacks, where a malicious user crafts Engorgio prompts to intentionally increase the computation cost and latency of the inference process. We design Engorgio, a novel methodology, to efficiently generate adversarial Engorgio prompts to affect the target LLM's service availability. Engorgio has the following two technical contributions. (1) We employ a parameterized distribution to track LLMs' prediction trajectory. (2) Targeting the auto-regressive nature of LLMs' inference process, we propose novel loss functions to stably suppress the appearance of the <EOS> token, whose occurrence will interrupt the LLM's generation process. We conduct extensive experiments on 13 open-sourced LLMs with parameters ranging from 125M to 30B. The results show that Engorgio prompts can successfully induce LLMs to generate abnormally long outputs (i.e., roughly 2-13times longer to reach 90%+ of the output length limit) in a white-box scenario and our real-world experiment demonstrates Engergio's threat to LLM service with limited computing resources. The code is accessible at https://github.com/jianshuod/Engorgio-prompt.

While programming is one of the most broadly applicable skills in modern society, modern machine learning models still cannot code solutions to basic problems. Despite its importance, there has been surprisingly little work on evaluating code generation, and it can be difficult to accurately assess code generation performance rigorously. To meet this challenge, we introduce APPS, a benchmark for code generation. Unlike prior work in more restricted settings, our benchmark measures the ability of models to take an arbitrary natural language specification and generate satisfactory Python code. Similar to how companies assess candidate software developers, we then evaluate models by checking their generated code on test cases. Our benchmark includes 10,000 problems, which range from having simple one-line solutions to being substantial algorithmic challenges. We fine-tune large language models on both GitHub and our training set, and we find that the prevalence of syntax errors is decreasing exponentially as models improve. Recent models such as GPT-Neo can pass approximately 20% of the test cases of introductory problems, so we find that machine learning models are now beginning to learn how to code. As the social significance of automatic code generation increases over the coming years, our benchmark can provide an important measure for tracking advancements.

In recent years, multimodal benchmarks for general domains have guided the rapid development of multimodal models on general tasks. However, the financial field has its peculiarities. It features unique graphical images (e.g., candlestick charts, technical indicator charts) and possesses a wealth of specialized financial knowledge (e.g., futures, turnover rate). Therefore, benchmarks from general fields often fail to measure the performance of multimodal models in the financial domain, and thus cannot effectively guide the rapid development of large financial models. To promote the development of large financial multimodal models, we propose MME-Finance, an bilingual open-ended and practical usage-oriented Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmark. The characteristics of our benchmark are finance and expertise, which include constructing charts that reflect the actual usage needs of users (e.g., computer screenshots and mobile photography), creating questions according to the preferences in financial domain inquiries, and annotating questions by experts with 10+ years of experience in the financial industry. Additionally, we have developed a custom-designed financial evaluation system in which visual information is first introduced in the multi-modal evaluation process. Extensive experimental evaluations of 19 mainstream MLLMs are conducted to test their perception, reasoning, and cognition capabilities. The results indicate that models performing well on general benchmarks cannot do well on MME-Finance; for instance, the top-performing open-source and closed-source models obtain 65.69 (Qwen2VL-72B) and 63.18 (GPT-4o), respectively. Their performance is particularly poor in categories most relevant to finance, such as candlestick charts and technical indicator charts. In addition, we propose a Chinese version, which helps compare performance of MLLMs under a Chinese context.

We present semantic correctness proofs of automatic differentiation (AD). We consider a forward-mode AD method on a higher order language with algebraic data types, and we characterise it as the unique structure preserving macro given a choice of derivatives for basic operations. We describe a rich semantics for differentiable programming, based on diffeological spaces. We show that it interprets our language, and we phrase what it means for the AD method to be correct with respect to this semantics. We show that our characterisation of AD gives rise to an elegant semantic proof of its correctness based on a gluing construction on diffeological spaces. We explain how this is, in essence, a logical relations argument. Throughout, we show how the analysis extends to AD methods for computing higher order derivatives using a Taylor approximation.

The recently introduced Mojo programming language (PL) by Modular, has received significant attention in the scientific community due to its claimed significant speed boost over Python. Despite advancements in code Large Language Models (LLMs) across various PLs, Mojo remains unexplored in this context. To address this gap, we introduce MojoBench, the first framework for Mojo code generation. MojoBench includes HumanEval-Mojo, a benchmark dataset designed for evaluating code LLMs on Mojo, and Mojo-Coder, the first LLM pretrained and finetuned for Mojo code generation, which supports instructions in 5 natural languages (NLs). Our results show that Mojo-Coder achieves a 30-35% performance improvement over leading models like GPT-4o and Claude-3.5-Sonnet. Furthermore, we provide insights into LLM behavior with underrepresented and unseen PLs, offering potential strategies for enhancing model adaptability. MojoBench contributes to our understanding of LLM capabilities and limitations in emerging programming paradigms fostering more robust code generation systems.

The need for large text corpora has increased with the advent of pretrained language models and, in particular, the discovery of scaling laws for these models. Most available corpora have sufficient data only for languages with large dominant communities. However, there is no corpus available that (i) covers a wide range of minority languages; (ii) is generated by an open-source reproducible pipeline; and (iii) is rigorously cleaned from noise, making it trustworthy to use. We present GlotCC, a clean, document-level, 2TB general domain corpus derived from CommonCrawl, covering more than 1000 languages. We make GlotCC and the system used to generate it - including the pipeline, language identification model, and filters - available to the research community. Corpus v. 1.0 https://huggingface.co/datasets/cis-lmu/GlotCC-v1, Pipeline v. 3.0 https://github.com/cisnlp/GlotCC.

Information overload is a major obstacle to scientific progress. The explosive growth in scientific literature and data has made it ever harder to discover useful insights in a large mass of information. Today scientific knowledge is accessed through search engines, but they are unable to organize scientific knowledge alone. In this paper we introduce Galactica: a large language model that can store, combine and reason about scientific knowledge. We train on a large scientific corpus of papers, reference material, knowledge bases and many other sources. We outperform existing models on a range of scientific tasks. On technical knowledge probes such as LaTeX equations, Galactica outperforms the latest GPT-3 by 68.2% versus 49.0%. Galactica also performs well on reasoning, outperforming Chinchilla on mathematical MMLU by 41.3% to 35.7%, and PaLM 540B on MATH with a score of 20.4% versus 8.8%. It also sets a new state-of-the-art on downstream tasks such as PubMedQA and MedMCQA dev of 77.6% and 52.9%. And despite not being trained on a general corpus, Galactica outperforms BLOOM and OPT-175B on BIG-bench. We believe these results demonstrate the potential for language models as a new interface for science. We open source the model for the benefit of the scientific community.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Visual language such as charts and plots is ubiquitous in the human world. Comprehending plots and charts requires strong reasoning skills. Prior state-of-the-art (SOTA) models require at least tens of thousands of training examples and their reasoning capabilities are still much limited, especially on complex human-written queries. This paper presents the first one-shot solution to visual language reasoning. We decompose the challenge of visual language reasoning into two steps: (1) plot-to-text translation, and (2) reasoning over the translated text. The key in this method is a modality conversion module, named as DePlot, which translates the image of a plot or chart to a linearized table. The output of DePlot can then be directly used to prompt a pretrained large language model (LLM), exploiting the few-shot reasoning capabilities of LLMs. To obtain DePlot, we standardize the plot-to-table task by establishing unified task formats and metrics, and train DePlot end-to-end on this task. DePlot can then be used off-the-shelf together with LLMs in a plug-and-play fashion. Compared with a SOTA model finetuned on more than >28k data points, DePlot+LLM with just one-shot prompting achieves a 24.0% improvement over finetuned SOTA on human-written queries from the task of chart QA.

As large language models (LLMs) are adopted as a fundamental component of language technologies, it is crucial to accurately characterize their performance. Because choices in prompt design can strongly influence model behavior, this design process is critical in effectively using any modern pre-trained generative language model. In this work, we focus on LLM sensitivity to a quintessential class of meaning-preserving design choices: prompt formatting. We find that several widely used open-source LLMs are extremely sensitive to subtle changes in prompt formatting in few-shot settings, with performance differences of up to 76 accuracy points when evaluated using LLaMA-2-13B. Sensitivity remains even when increasing model size, the number of few-shot examples, or performing instruction tuning. Our analysis suggests that work evaluating LLMs with prompting-based methods would benefit from reporting a range of performance across plausible prompt formats, instead of the currently-standard practice of reporting performance on a single format. We also show that format performance only weakly correlates between models, which puts into question the methodological validity of comparing models with an arbitrarily chosen, fixed prompt format. To facilitate systematic analysis we propose FormatSpread, an algorithm that rapidly evaluates a sampled set of plausible prompt formats for a given task, and reports the interval of expected performance without accessing model weights. Furthermore, we present a suite of analyses that characterize the nature of this sensitivity, including exploring the influence of particular atomic perturbations and the internal representation of particular formats.

Code quality is and will be a crucial factor while developing new software code, requiring appropriate tools to ensure functional and reliable code. Machine learning techniques are still rarely used for software engineering tools, missing out the potential benefits of its application. Natural language processing has shown the potential to process text data regarding a variety of tasks. We argue, that such models can also show similar benefits for software code processing. In this paper, we investigate how models used for natural language processing can be trained upon software code. We introduce a data retrieval pipeline for software code and train a model upon Java software code. The resulting model, JavaBERT, shows a high accuracy on the masked language modeling task showing its potential for software engineering tools.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to inheriting and amplifying societal biases embedded within their training data, potentially reinforcing harmful stereotypes related to gender, occupation, and other sensitive categories. This issue becomes particularly problematic as biased LLMs can have far-reaching consequences, leading to unfair practices and exacerbating social inequalities across various domains, such as recruitment, online content moderation, or even the criminal justice system. Although prior research has focused on detecting bias in LLMs using specialized datasets designed to highlight intrinsic biases, there has been a notable lack of investigation into how these findings correlate with authoritative datasets, such as those from the U.S. National Bureau of Labor Statistics (NBLS). To address this gap, we conduct empirical research that evaluates LLMs in a ``bias-out-of-the-box" setting, analyzing how the generated outputs compare with the distributions found in NBLS data. Furthermore, we propose a straightforward yet effective debiasing mechanism that directly incorporates NBLS instances to mitigate bias within LLMs. Our study spans seven different LLMs, including instructable, base, and mixture-of-expert models, and reveals significant levels of bias that are often overlooked by existing bias detection techniques. Importantly, our debiasing method, which does not rely on external datasets, demonstrates a substantial reduction in bias scores, highlighting the efficacy of our approach in creating fairer and more reliable LLMs.

Experts in various fields routinely perform methodical writing tasks to plan, organize, and report their work. From a clinician writing a differential diagnosis for a patient, to a teacher writing a lesson plan for students, these tasks are pervasive, requiring to methodically generate structured long-form output for a given input. We develop a typology of methodical tasks structured in the form of a task objective, procedure, input, and output, and introduce DoLoMiTes, a novel benchmark with specifications for 519 such tasks elicited from hundreds of experts from across 25 fields. Our benchmark further contains specific instantiations of methodical tasks with concrete input and output examples (1,857 in total) which we obtain by collecting expert revisions of up to 10 model-generated examples of each task. We use these examples to evaluate contemporary language models highlighting that automating methodical tasks is a challenging long-form generation problem, as it requires performing complex inferences, while drawing upon the given context as well as domain knowledge.

Instruction-finetuned code language models (LMs) have shown promise in various programming tasks. They are trained, using a language modeling objective, on natural language instructions and gold code snippet pairs. Recent evidence suggests that these models, never exposed to incorrect solutions during training, often struggle to distinguish between correct and incorrect solutions. This observation raises our inquiry: Can preference learning, which trains models to prefer correct solutions over incorrect ones, help push the boundaries of code LMs even further? We propose PLUM, a novel preference learning framework augmented with test cases tailored for code LMs.PLUM aims to investigate the key success factors and potential benefits of preference learning in code LMs, which remain elusive despite its success in aligning LMs with human values. PLUM consists of three stages: (1) Generating test cases for natural language instructions, (2) sampling candidate solutions from the policy and evaluating them against the test cases to create a preference dataset, which is then used to (3) train the policy with a preference learning algorithm. Experiments demonstrate that PLUM substantially improves the performance of existing code LMs on established code generation benchmarks such as HumanEval (+) and MBPP (+), even for the state-of-the-art open-source language model CodeQwen-1.5-7B-Chat. PLUM complements the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) stage, demonstrating synergistic effects.

Code generation models have achieved impressive performance. However, they tend to be brittle as slight edits to a prompt could lead to very different generations; these robustness properties, critical for user experience when deployed in real-life applications, are not well understood. Most existing works on robustness in text or code tasks have focused on classification, while robustness in generation tasks is an uncharted area and to date there is no comprehensive benchmark for robustness in code generation. In this paper, we propose ReCode, a comprehensive robustness evaluation benchmark for code generation models. We customize over 30 transformations specifically for code on docstrings, function and variable names, code syntax, and code format. They are carefully designed to be natural in real-life coding practice, preserve the original semantic meaning, and thus provide multifaceted assessments of a model's robustness performance. With human annotators, we verified that over 90% of the perturbed prompts do not alter the semantic meaning of the original prompt. In addition, we define robustness metrics for code generation models considering the worst-case behavior under each type of perturbation, taking advantage of the fact that executing the generated code can serve as objective evaluation. We demonstrate ReCode on SOTA models using HumanEval, MBPP, as well as function completion tasks derived from them. Interesting observations include: better robustness for CodeGen over InCoder and GPT-J; models are most sensitive to syntax perturbations; more challenging robustness evaluation on MBPP over HumanEval.