Daily Papers

This technical report describes the Time Series Optimized Transformer for Observability (Toto), a new state of the art foundation model for time series forecasting developed by Datadog. In addition to advancing the state of the art on generalized time series benchmarks in domains such as electricity and weather, this model is the first general-purpose time series forecasting foundation model to be specifically tuned for observability metrics. Toto was trained on a dataset of one trillion time series data points, the largest among all currently published time series foundation models. Alongside publicly available time series datasets, 75% of the data used to train Toto consists of fully anonymous numerical metric data points from the Datadog platform. In our experiments, Toto outperforms existing time series foundation models on observability data. It does this while also excelling at general-purpose forecasting tasks, achieving state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on multiple open benchmark datasets.

Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this phenomenon, we start by studying a toy linear forecasting problem for which we show that transformers are incapable of converging to their true solution despite their high expressive power. We further identify the attention of transformers as being responsible for this low generalization capacity. Building upon this insight, we propose a shallow lightweight transformer model that successfully escapes bad local minima when optimized with sharpness-aware optimization. We empirically demonstrate that this result extends to all commonly used real-world multivariate time series datasets. In particular, SAMformer surpasses current state-of-the-art methods and is on par with the biggest foundation model MOIRAI while having significantly fewer parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/romilbert/samformer.

A new golden age in astronomy is upon us, dominated by data. Large astronomical surveys are broadcasting unprecedented rates of information, demanding machine learning as a critical component in modern scientific pipelines to handle the deluge of data. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will raise the big-data bar for time-domain astronomy, with an expected 10 million alerts per-night, and generating many petabytes of data over the lifetime of the survey. Fast and efficient classification algorithms that can operate in real-time, yet robustly and accurately, are needed for time-critical events where additional resources can be sought for follow-up analyses. In order to handle such data, state-of-the-art deep learning architectures coupled with tools that leverage modern hardware accelerators are essential. We showcase how the use of modern deep compression methods can achieve a 18times reduction in model size, whilst preserving classification performance. We also show that in addition to the deep compression techniques, careful choice of file formats can improve inference latency, and thereby throughput of alerts, on the order of 8times for local processing, and 5times in a live production setting. To test this in a live setting, we deploy this optimised version of the original time-series transformer, t2, into the community alert broking system of FINK on real Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert data, and compare throughput performance with other science modules that exist in FINK. The results shown herein emphasise the time-series transformer's suitability for real-time classification at LSST scale, and beyond, and introduce deep model compression as a fundamental tool for improving deploy-ability and scalable inference of deep learning models for transient classification.

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/ETSformer.

Masked time series modeling has recently gained much attention as a self-supervised representation learning strategy for time series. Inspired by masked image modeling in computer vision, recent works first patchify and partially mask out time series, and then train Transformers to capture the dependencies between patches by predicting masked patches from unmasked patches. However, we argue that capturing such patch dependencies might not be an optimal strategy for time series representation learning; rather, learning to embed patches independently results in better time series representations. Specifically, we propose to use 1) the simple patch reconstruction task, which autoencode each patch without looking at other patches, and 2) the simple patch-wise MLP that embeds each patch independently. In addition, we introduce complementary contrastive learning to hierarchically capture adjacent time series information efficiently. Our proposed method improves time series forecasting and classification performance compared to state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, while it is more efficient in terms of the number of parameters and training/inference time. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/pits.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

Transformer architecture has widespread applications, particularly in Natural Language Processing and computer vision. Recently Transformers have been employed in various aspects of time-series analysis. This tutorial provides an overview of the Transformer architecture, its applications, and a collection of examples from recent research papers in time-series analysis. We delve into an explanation of the core components of the Transformer, including the self-attention mechanism, positional encoding, multi-head, and encoder/decoder. Several enhancements to the initial, Transformer architecture are highlighted to tackle time-series tasks. The tutorial also provides best practices and techniques to overcome the challenge of effectively training Transformers for time-series analysis.

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

Recent innovations in transformers have shown their superior performance in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). The ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions in sequential data has also triggered a great interest in time series modeling, leading to the widespread use of transformers in many time series applications. However, being the most common and crucial application, the adaptation of transformers to time series forecasting has remained limited, with both promising and inconsistent results. In contrast to the challenges in NLP and CV, time series problems not only add the complexity of order or temporal dependence among input sequences but also consider trend, level, and seasonality information that much of this data is valuable for decision making. The conventional training scheme has shown deficiencies regarding model overfitting, data scarcity, and privacy issues when working with transformers for a forecasting task. In this work, we propose attentive federated transformers for time series stock forecasting with better performance while preserving the privacy of participating enterprises. Empirical results on various stock data from the Yahoo! Finance website indicate the superiority of our proposed scheme in dealing with the above challenges and data heterogeneity in federated learning.

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Timeseries analytics is of great importance in many real-world applications. Recently, the Transformer model, popular in natural language processing, has been leveraged to learn high quality feature embeddings from timeseries, core to the performance of various timeseries analytics tasks. However, the quadratic time and space complexities limit Transformers' scalability, especially for long timeseries. To address these issues, we develop a timeseries analytics tool, RITA, which uses a novel attention mechanism, named group attention, to address this scalability issue. Group attention dynamically clusters the objects based on their similarity into a small number of groups and approximately computes the attention at the coarse group granularity. It thus significantly reduces the time and space complexity, yet provides a theoretical guarantee on the quality of the computed attention. The dynamic scheduler of RITA continuously adapts the number of groups and the batch size in the training process, ensuring group attention always uses the fewest groups needed to meet the approximation quality requirement. Extensive experiments on various timeseries datasets and analytics tasks demonstrate that RITA outperforms the state-of-the-art in accuracy and is significantly faster -- with speedups of up to 63X.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked Encoder-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, model weights, and data will be released.

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel Time Series Lightweight Adaptive Network (TSLANet), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Transformers have gained popularity in time series forecasting for their ability to capture long-sequence interactions. However, their high memory and computing requirements pose a critical bottleneck for long-term forecasting. To address this, we propose TSMixer, a lightweight neural architecture exclusively composed of multi-layer perceptron (MLP) modules for multivariate forecasting and representation learning on patched time series. Inspired by MLP-Mixer's success in computer vision, we adapt it for time series, addressing challenges and introducing validated components for enhanced accuracy. This includes a novel design paradigm of attaching online reconciliation heads to the MLP-Mixer backbone, for explicitly modeling the time-series properties such as hierarchy and channel-correlations. We also propose a novel Hybrid channel modeling and infusion of a simple gating approach to effectively handle noisy channel interactions and generalization across diverse datasets. By incorporating these lightweight components, we significantly enhance the learning capability of simple MLP structures, outperforming complex Transformer models with minimal computing usage. Moreover, TSMixer's modular design enables compatibility with both supervised and masked self-supervised learning methods, making it a promising building block for time-series Foundation Models. TSMixer outperforms state-of-the-art MLP and Transformer models in forecasting by a considerable margin of 8-60%. It also outperforms the latest strong benchmarks of Patch-Transformer models (by 1-2%) with a significant reduction in memory and runtime (2-3X). The source code of our model is officially released as PatchTSMixer in the HuggingFace. Model: https://huggingface.co/docs/transformers/main/en/model_doc/patchtsmixer Examples: https://github.com/ibm/tsfm/#notebooks-links

Multivariate time series classification (MTSC) has attracted significant research attention due to its diverse real-world applications. Recently, exploiting transformers for MTSC has achieved state-of-the-art performance. However, existing methods focus on generic features, providing a comprehensive understanding of data, but they ignore class-specific features crucial for learning the representative characteristics of each class. This leads to poor performance in the case of imbalanced datasets or datasets with similar overall patterns but differing in minor class-specific details. In this paper, we propose a novel Shapelet Transformer (ShapeFormer), which comprises class-specific and generic transformer modules to capture both of these features. In the class-specific module, we introduce the discovery method to extract the discriminative subsequences of each class (i.e. shapelets) from the training set. We then propose a Shapelet Filter to learn the difference features between these shapelets and the input time series. We found that the difference feature for each shapelet contains important class-specific features, as it shows a significant distinction between its class and others. In the generic module, convolution filters are used to extract generic features that contain information to distinguish among all classes. For each module, we employ the transformer encoder to capture the correlation between their features. As a result, the combination of two transformer modules allows our model to exploit the power of both types of features, thereby enhancing the classification performance. Our experiments on 30 UEA MTSC datasets demonstrate that ShapeFormer has achieved the highest accuracy ranking compared to state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/xuanmay2701/shapeformer.

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in developing foundation models for time series data that can generalize across diverse downstream tasks. While numerous forecasting-oriented foundation models have been introduced, there is a notable scarcity of models tailored for time series classification. To address this gap, we present Mantis, a new open-source foundation model for time series classification based on the Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture that has been pre-trained using a contrastive learning approach. Our experimental results show that Mantis outperforms existing foundation models both when the backbone is frozen and when fine-tuned, while achieving the lowest calibration error. In addition, we propose several adapters to handle the multivariate setting, reducing memory requirements and modeling channel interdependence.

Recent advances in deep learning have mainly relied on Transformers due to their data dependency and ability to learn at scale. The attention module in these architectures, however, exhibits quadratic time and space in input size, limiting their scalability for long-sequence modeling. Despite recent attempts to design efficient and effective architecture backbone for multi-dimensional data, such as images and multivariate time series, existing models are either data independent, or fail to allow inter- and intra-dimension communication. Recently, State Space Models (SSMs), and more specifically Selective State Space Models, with efficient hardware-aware implementation, have shown promising potential for long sequence modeling. Motivated by the success of SSMs, we present MambaMixer, a new architecture with data-dependent weights that uses a dual selection mechanism across tokens and channels, called Selective Token and Channel Mixer. MambaMixer connects selective mixers using a weighted averaging mechanism, allowing layers to have direct access to early features. As a proof of concept, we design Vision MambaMixer (ViM2) and Time Series MambaMixer (TSM2) architectures based on the MambaMixer block and explore their performance in various vision and time series forecasting tasks. Our results underline the importance of selective mixing across both tokens and channels. In ImageNet classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation tasks, ViM2 achieves competitive performance with well-established vision models and outperforms SSM-based vision models. In time series forecasting, TSM2 achieves outstanding performance compared to state-of-the-art methods while demonstrating significantly improved computational cost. These results show that while Transformers, cross-channel attention, and MLPs are sufficient for good performance in time series forecasting, neither is necessary.

Deep learning has been actively applied to time series forecasting, leading to a deluge of new methods, belonging to the class of historical-value models. Yet, despite the attractive properties of time-index models, such as being able to model the continuous nature of underlying time series dynamics, little attention has been given to them. Indeed, while naive deep time-index models are far more expressive than the manually predefined function representations of classical time-index models, they are inadequate for forecasting, being unable to generalize to unseen time steps due to the lack of inductive bias. In this paper, we propose DeepTime, a meta-optimization framework to learn deep time-index models which overcome these limitations, yielding an efficient and accurate forecasting model. Extensive experiments on real world datasets in the long sequence time-series forecasting setting demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTime.

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

The advent of Transformers marked a significant breakthrough in sequence modelling, providing a highly performant architecture capable of leveraging GPU parallelism. However, Transformers are computationally expensive at inference time, limiting their applications, particularly in low-resource settings (e.g., mobile and embedded devices). Addressing this, we (1) begin by showing that attention can be viewed as a special Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with the ability to compute its many-to-one RNN output efficiently. We then (2) show that popular attention-based models such as Transformers can be viewed as RNN variants. However, unlike traditional RNNs (e.g., LSTMs), these models cannot be updated efficiently with new tokens, an important property in sequence modelling. Tackling this, we (3) introduce a new efficient method of computing attention's many-to-many RNN output based on the parallel prefix scan algorithm. Building on the new attention formulation, we (4) introduce Aaren, an attention-based module that can not only (i) be trained in parallel (like Transformers) but also (ii) be updated efficiently with new tokens, requiring only constant memory for inferences (like traditional RNNs). Empirically, we show Aarens achieve comparable performance to Transformers on 38 datasets spread across four popular sequential problem settings: reinforcement learning, event forecasting, time series classification, and time series forecasting tasks while being more time and memory-efficient.

Recent research on time-series self-supervised models shows great promise in learning semantic representations. However, it has been limited to small-scale datasets, e.g., thousands of temporal sequences. In this work, we make key technical contributions that are tailored to the numerical properties of time-series data and allow the model to scale to large datasets, e.g., millions of temporal sequences. We adopt the Transformer architecture by first partitioning the input into non-overlapping windows. Each window is then characterized by its normalized shape and two scalar values denoting the mean and standard deviation within each window. To embed scalar values that may possess arbitrary numerical scales to high-dimensional vectors, we propose a numerically multi-scaled embedding module enumerating all possible scales for the scalar values. The model undergoes pretraining using the proposed numerically multi-scaled embedding with a simple contrastive objective on a large-scale dataset containing over a million sequences. We study its transfer performance on a number of univariate and multivariate classification benchmarks. Our method exhibits remarkable improvement against previous representation learning approaches and establishes the new state of the art, even compared with domain-specific non-learning-based methods.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

Transformer training is notoriously difficult, requiring a careful design of optimizers and use of various heuristics. We make progress towards understanding the subtleties of training Transformers by carefully studying a simple yet canonical linearized shallow Transformer model. Specifically, we train linear Transformers to solve regression tasks, inspired by J.~von Oswald et al.~(ICML 2023), and K.~Ahn et al.~(NeurIPS 2023). Most importantly, we observe that our proposed linearized models can reproduce several prominent aspects of Transformer training dynamics. Consequently, the results obtained in this paper suggest that a simple linearized Transformer model could actually be a valuable, realistic abstraction for understanding Transformer optimization.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across various domains, but it presents significant challenges. Recent studies have explored image-driven approaches using computer vision models to address these challenges, often employing lineplots as the visual representation of time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that uses time-frequency spectrograms as the visual representation of time series data. We introduce the use of a vision transformer for multimodal learning, showcasing the advantages of our approach across diverse datasets from different domains. To evaluate its effectiveness, we compare our method against statistical baselines (EMA and ARIMA), a state-of-the-art deep learning-based approach (DeepAR), other visual representations of time series data (lineplot images), and an ablation study on using only the time series as input. Our experiments demonstrate the benefits of utilizing spectrograms as a visual representation for time series data, along with the advantages of employing a vision transformer for simultaneous learning in both the time and frequency domains.

Recent years have seen a phenomenal rise in performance and applications of transformer neural networks. The family of transformer networks, including Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT), Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) and Vision Transformer (ViT), have shown their effectiveness across Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Computer Vision (CV) domains. Transformer-based networks such as ChatGPT have impacted the lives of common men. However, the quest for high predictive performance has led to an exponential increase in transformers' memory and compute footprint. Researchers have proposed techniques to optimize transformer inference at all levels of abstraction. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of techniques for optimizing the inference phase of transformer networks. We survey techniques such as knowledge distillation, pruning, quantization, neural architecture search and lightweight network design at the algorithmic level. We further review hardware-level optimization techniques and the design of novel hardware accelerators for transformers. We summarize the quantitative results on the number of parameters/FLOPs and accuracy of several models/techniques to showcase the tradeoff exercised by them. We also outline future directions in this rapidly evolving field of research. We believe that this survey will educate both novice and seasoned researchers and also spark a plethora of research efforts in this field.

As a branch of time series forecasting, stock movement forecasting is one of the challenging problems for investors and researchers. Since Transformer was introduced to analyze financial data, many researchers have dedicated themselves to forecasting stock movement using Transformer or attention mechanisms. However, existing research mostly focuses on individual stock information but ignores stock market information and high noise in stock data. In this paper, we propose a novel method using the attention mechanism in which both stock market information and individual stock information are considered. Meanwhile, we propose a novel EMD-based algorithm for reducing short-term noise in stock data. Two randomly selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs) spanning over ten years from US stock markets are used to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed attention-based method. The experimental analysis demonstrates that the proposed attention-based method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/DurandalLee/ACEFormer.

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies between data points. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are good at capturing local patterns for modeling short-term dependencies. However, CNNs cannot learn long-term dependencies due to the limited receptive field. Transformers on the other hand are capable of learning global context and long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose to harness the power of CNNs and Transformers to model both short-term and long-term dependencies within a time series, and forecast if the price would go up, down or remain the same (flat) in the future. In our experiments, we demonstrated the success of the proposed method in comparison to commonly adopted statistical and deep learning methods on forecasting intraday stock price change of S&P 500 constituents.

The widespread adoption of scalable mobile sensing has led to large amounts of time series data for real-world applications. A fundamental application is multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), which aims to predict future time series values based on historical observations. Existing MTSF methods suffer from limited parameterization and small-scale training data. Recently, Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced in time series, which achieve promising forecasting performance but incur heavy computational costs. To solve these challenges, we propose TimeCMA, an LLM-empowered framework for time series forecasting with cross-modality alignment. We design a dual-modality encoding module with two branches, where the time series encoding branch extracts relatively low-quality yet pure embeddings of time series through an inverted Transformer. In addition, the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series as prompts to obtain high-quality yet entangled prompt embeddings via a Pre-trained LLM. Then, we design a cross-modality alignment module to retrieve high-quality and pure time series embeddings from the prompt embeddings. Moreover, we develop a time series forecasting module to decode the aligned embeddings while capturing dependencies among multiple variables for forecasting. Notably, we tailor the prompt to encode sufficient temporal information into a last token and design the last token embedding storage to reduce computational costs. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework.

The great success of transformer-based models in natural language processing (NLP) has led to various attempts at adapting these architectures to other domains such as vision and audio. Recent work has shown that transformers can outperform Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) on vision and audio tasks. However, one of the main shortcomings of transformer models, compared to the well-established CNNs, is the computational complexity. In transformers, the compute and memory complexity is known to grow quadratically with the input length. Therefore, there has been extensive work on optimizing transformers, but often at the cost of degrading predictive performance. In this work, we propose a novel method to optimize and regularize transformers on audio spectrograms. Our proposed models achieve a new state-of-the-art performance on Audioset and can be trained on a single consumer-grade GPU. Furthermore, we propose a transformer model that outperforms CNNs in terms of both performance and training speed. Source code: https://github.com/kkoutini/PaSST

Recurrent neural networks are effective models to process sequences. However, they are unable to learn long-term dependencies because of their inherent sequential nature. As a solution, Vaswani et al. introduced the Transformer, a model solely based on the attention mechanism that is able to relate any two positions of the input sequence, hence modelling arbitrary long dependencies. The Transformer has improved the state-of-the-art across numerous sequence modelling tasks. However, its effectiveness comes at the expense of a quadratic computational and memory complexity with respect to the sequence length, hindering its adoption. Fortunately, the deep learning community has always been interested in improving the models' efficiency, leading to a plethora of solutions such as parameter sharing, pruning, mixed-precision, and knowledge distillation. Recently, researchers have directly addressed the Transformer's limitation by designing lower-complexity alternatives such as the Longformer, Reformer, Linformer, and Performer. However, due to the wide range of solutions, it has become challenging for researchers and practitioners to determine which methods to apply in practice in order to meet the desired trade-off between capacity, computation, and memory. This survey addresses this issue by investigating popular approaches to make Transformers faster and lighter and by providing a comprehensive explanation of the methods' strengths, limitations, and underlying assumptions.

Transformers have become the dominant model in deep learning, but the reason for their superior performance is poorly understood. Here, we hypothesize that the strong performance of Transformers stems from an architectural bias towards mesa-optimization, a learned process running within the forward pass of a model consisting of the following two steps: (i) the construction of an internal learning objective, and (ii) its corresponding solution found through optimization. To test this hypothesis, we reverse-engineer a series of autoregressive Transformers trained on simple sequence modeling tasks, uncovering underlying gradient-based mesa-optimization algorithms driving the generation of predictions. Moreover, we show that the learned forward-pass optimization algorithm can be immediately repurposed to solve supervised few-shot tasks, suggesting that mesa-optimization might underlie the in-context learning capabilities of large language models. Finally, we propose a novel self-attention layer, the mesa-layer, that explicitly and efficiently solves optimization problems specified in context. We find that this layer can lead to improved performance in synthetic and preliminary language modeling experiments, adding weight to our hypothesis that mesa-optimization is an important operation hidden within the weights of trained Transformers.

This thesis provides methods and analysis of models which make progress on this goal. The techniques outlined are task agnostic, and should provide benefit when used with nearly any transformer LM. We introduce two new finetuning methods which add new capabilities to the models they are used on. The first adds a recurrence mechanism, which removes the fixed-window sized constraint and improves the efficiency of a transformer decoder. The second allows masked language models (MLMs) to be used for initialization of both the encoder and decoder of a non-autoregressive sequence-to-sequence transformer, opening up generative applications of models which were previously only used for natural language understanding tasks. We also introduce two new techniques for improving the quality of predictions of any transformer decoder without additional finetuning. One, hidden state optimization, can be applied to any transformer decoder to improve the quality of predictions at inference time, especially for few-shot classification. The other, conditional beam search, allows practitioners to search for natural language generation (NLG) model outputs with high likelihood while conditioning on the event that the output is not degenerate (e.g. empty, repetitive, etc.). Finally, we provide theoretical and empirical insights on the divergence of model-likelihood and output quality which has widely been observed in prior work. These insights apply to any model which represents a distribution over text, and apply to language models which are not transformers or even autoregressive. We argue that the NLP community has, to some extent, misunderstood the implications of these findings, and encourage a point of view which has more nuance.

In this work we introduce KERNELIZED TRANSFORMER, a generic, scalable, data driven framework for learning the kernel function in Transformers. Our framework approximates the Transformer kernel as a dot product between spectral feature maps and learns the kernel by learning the spectral distribution. This not only helps in learning a generic kernel end-to-end, but also reduces the time and space complexity of Transformers from quadratic to linear. We show that KERNELIZED TRANSFORMERS achieve performance comparable to existing efficient Transformer architectures, both in terms of accuracy as well as computational efficiency. Our study also demonstrates that the choice of the kernel has a substantial impact on performance, and kernel learning variants are competitive alternatives to fixed kernel Transformers, both in long as well as short sequence tasks.

In this note we examine the autoregressive generalization of the FNet algorithm, in which self-attention layers from the standard Transformer architecture are substituted with a trivial sparse-uniformsampling procedure based on Fourier transforms. Using the Wikitext-103 benchmark, we demonstratethat FNetAR retains state-of-the-art performance (25.8 ppl) on the task of causal language modelingcompared to a Transformer-XL baseline (24.2 ppl) with only half the number self-attention layers,thus providing further evidence for the superfluity of deep neural networks with heavily compoundedattention mechanisms. The autoregressive Fourier transform could likely be used for parameterreduction on most Transformer-based time-series prediction models.

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

Time series models face significant challenges in scaling to handle large and complex datasets, akin to the scaling achieved by large language models (LLMs). The unique characteristics of time series data and the computational demands of model scaling necessitate innovative approaches. While researchers have explored various architectures such as Transformers, LSTMs, and GRUs to address these challenges, we propose a novel solution using RWKV-7, which incorporates meta-learning into its state update mechanism. By integrating RWKV-7's time mix and channel mix components into the transformer-based time series model Timer, we achieve a substantial performance improvement of approximately 1.13 to 43.3x and a 4.5x reduction in training time with 1/23 parameters, all while utilizing fewer parameters. Our code and model weights are publicly available for further research and development at https://github.com/Alic-Li/BlackGoose_Rimer.

Future surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will observe an order of magnitude more astrophysical transient events than any previous survey before. With this deluge of photometric data, it will be impossible for all such events to be classified by humans alone. Recent efforts have sought to leverage machine learning methods to tackle the challenge of astronomical transient classification, with ever improving success. Transformers are a recently developed deep learning architecture, first proposed for natural language processing, that have shown a great deal of recent success. In this work we develop a new transformer architecture, which uses multi-head self attention at its core, for general multi-variate time-series data. Furthermore, the proposed time-series transformer architecture supports the inclusion of an arbitrary number of additional features, while also offering interpretability. We apply the time-series transformer to the task of photometric classification, minimising the reliance of expert domain knowledge for feature selection, while achieving results comparable to state-of-the-art photometric classification methods. We achieve a logarithmic-loss of 0.507 on imbalanced data in a representative setting using data from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC). Moreover, we achieve a micro-averaged receiver operating characteristic area under curve of 0.98 and micro-averaged precision-recall area under curve of 0.87.

The transformer is a neural network component that can be used to learn useful representations of sequences or sets of data-points. The transformer has driven recent advances in natural language processing, computer vision, and spatio-temporal modelling. There are many introductions to transformers, but most do not contain precise mathematical descriptions of the architecture and the intuitions behind the design choices are often also missing. Moreover, as research takes a winding path, the explanations for the components of the transformer can be idiosyncratic. In this note we aim for a mathematically precise, intuitive, and clean description of the transformer architecture. We will not discuss training as this is rather standard. We assume that the reader is familiar with fundamental topics in machine learning including multi-layer perceptrons, linear transformations, softmax functions and basic probability.

We explore a data-driven approach for learning to optimize neural networks. We construct a dataset of neural network checkpoints and train a generative model on the parameters. In particular, our model is a conditional diffusion transformer that, given an initial input parameter vector and a prompted loss, error, or return, predicts the distribution over parameter updates that achieve the desired metric. At test time, it can optimize neural networks with unseen parameters for downstream tasks in just one update. We find that our approach successfully generates parameters for a wide range of loss prompts. Moreover, it can sample multimodal parameter solutions and has favorable scaling properties. We apply our method to different neural network architectures and tasks in supervised and reinforcement learning.

Transformers achieve remarkable performance in several tasks but due to their quadratic complexity, with respect to the input's length, they are prohibitively slow for very long sequences. To address this limitation, we express the self-attention as a linear dot-product of kernel feature maps and make use of the associativity property of matrix products to reduce the complexity from Oleft(N^2right) to Oleft(Nright), where N is the sequence length. We show that this formulation permits an iterative implementation that dramatically accelerates autoregressive transformers and reveals their relationship to recurrent neural networks. Our linear transformers achieve similar performance to vanilla transformers and they are up to 4000x faster on autoregressive prediction of very long sequences.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Transformers are one of the most important machine learning workloads today. Training one is a very compute-intensive task, often taking days or weeks, and significant attention has been given to optimizing transformers. Despite this, existing implementations do not efficiently utilize GPUs. We find that data movement is the key bottleneck when training. Due to Amdahl's Law and massive improvements in compute performance, training has now become memory-bound. Further, existing frameworks use suboptimal data layouts. Using these insights, we present a recipe for globally optimizing data movement in transformers. We reduce data movement by up to 22.91% and overall achieve a 1.30x performance improvement over state-of-the-art frameworks when training a BERT encoder layer and 1.19x for the entire BERT. Our approach is applicable more broadly to optimizing deep neural networks, and offers insight into how to tackle emerging performance bottlenecks.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

In this paper, we give an in-depth analysis on the mathematical problem formulations and the probabilistic optimization explorations for some of the key components in Transformer model [33] in the field of generative AI. We explore and discuss some potential further enhancement for current state of the art methods for some key underlying technologies of generative AI models from algorithmic and probabilistic optimization perspective. In particular, we present an optimal solution for sub-word encoding (SWE) based on similar initial settings as that of byte-pair encoding (BPE) algorithm in [9] with similar objectives as that of WordPiece approach in [28, 31] to maximize the likelihood of the training data. We also present cross entropy optimization method to optimize hyperparameters for word2vec model [17]. In addition, we propose a factored combination of rotary positional encoding (RoPE) [32] and attention with linear biases (ALiBi) [23] with a harmonic series. We also present a probabilistic FlashAttention [6, 7] (PrFlashAttention) method with a probability distribution over block distances in the matrix to decide which block is likely to participate in a given round of attention computation while maintaining the lower triangle shape of the tensor for autoregressive language models by re-shaping the tensors. Finally, we present staircase adaptive quantization (SAQ) of key-value (KV) cache for multi-query attention (MQA) based on the framework presented in [16] to have gradual quantization degradation while achieving reasonable model quality and cost savings.

We introduce a framework that abstracts Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a sequence modeling problem. This allows us to draw upon the simplicity and scalability of the Transformer architecture, and associated advances in language modeling such as GPT-x and BERT. In particular, we present Decision Transformer, an architecture that casts the problem of RL as conditional sequence modeling. Unlike prior approaches to RL that fit value functions or compute policy gradients, Decision Transformer simply outputs the optimal actions by leveraging a causally masked Transformer. By conditioning an autoregressive model on the desired return (reward), past states, and actions, our Decision Transformer model can generate future actions that achieve the desired return. Despite its simplicity, Decision Transformer matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art model-free offline RL baselines on Atari, OpenAI Gym, and Key-to-Door tasks.

Transformers have greatly advanced the state-of-the-art in Natural Language Processing (NLP) in recent years, but present very large computation and storage requirements. We observe that the design process of Transformers (pre-train a foundation model on a large dataset in a self-supervised manner, and subsequently fine-tune it for different downstream tasks) leads to task-specific models that are highly over-parameterized, adversely impacting both accuracy and inference efficiency. We propose AxFormer, a systematic framework that applies accuracy-driven approximations to create optimized transformer models for a given downstream task. AxFormer combines two key optimizations -- accuracy-driven pruning and selective hard attention. Accuracy-driven pruning identifies and removes parts of the fine-tuned transformer that hinder performance on the given downstream task. Sparse hard-attention optimizes attention blocks in selected layers by eliminating irrelevant word aggregations, thereby helping the model focus only on the relevant parts of the input. In effect, AxFormer leads to models that are more accurate, while also being faster and smaller. Our experiments on GLUE and SQUAD tasks show that AxFormer models are up to 4.5% more accurate, while also being up to 2.5X faster and up to 3.2X smaller than conventional fine-tuned models. In addition, we demonstrate that AxFormer can be combined with previous efforts such as distillation or quantization to achieve further efficiency gains.

In this paper, we take a new approach to autoregressive image generation that is based on two main ingredients. The first is wavelet image coding, which allows to tokenize the visual details of an image from coarse to fine details by ordering the information starting with the most significant bits of the most significant wavelet coefficients. The second is a variant of a language transformer whose architecture is re-designed and optimized for token sequences in this 'wavelet language'. The transformer learns the significant statistical correlations within a token sequence, which are the manifestations of well-known correlations between the wavelet subbands at various resolutions. We show experimental results with conditioning on the generation process.

Transformers have recently dominated the ASR field. Although able to yield good performance, they involve an autoregressive (AR) decoder to generate tokens one by one, which is computationally inefficient. To speed up inference, non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, e.g. single-step NAR, were designed, to enable parallel generation. However, due to an independence assumption within the output tokens, performance of single-step NAR is inferior to that of AR models, especially with a large-scale corpus. There are two challenges to improving single-step NAR: Firstly to accurately predict the number of output tokens and extract hidden variables; secondly, to enhance modeling of interdependence between output tokens. To tackle both challenges, we propose a fast and accurate parallel transformer, termed Paraformer. This utilizes a continuous integrate-and-fire based predictor to predict the number of tokens and generate hidden variables. A glancing language model (GLM) sampler then generates semantic embeddings to enhance the NAR decoder's ability to model context interdependence. Finally, we design a strategy to generate negative samples for minimum word error rate training to further improve performance. Experiments using the public AISHELL-1, AISHELL-2 benchmark, and an industrial-level 20,000 hour task demonstrate that the proposed Paraformer can attain comparable performance to the state-of-the-art AR transformer, with more than 10x speedup.

Despite the great success of Transformer networks in various applications such as natural language processing and computer vision, their theoretical aspects are not well understood. In this paper, we study the approximation and estimation ability of Transformers as sequence-to-sequence functions with infinite dimensional inputs. Although inputs and outputs are both infinite dimensional, we show that when the target function has anisotropic smoothness, Transformers can avoid the curse of dimensionality due to their feature extraction ability and parameter sharing property. In addition, we show that even if the smoothness changes depending on each input, Transformers can estimate the importance of features for each input and extract important features dynamically. Then, we proved that Transformers achieve similar convergence rate as in the case of the fixed smoothness. Our theoretical results support the practical success of Transformers for high dimensional data.

Sequence modeling is a crucial area across various domains, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), speech recognition, time series forecasting, music generation, and bioinformatics. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have historically dominated sequence modeling tasks like Machine Translation, Named Entity Recognition (NER), etc. However, the advancement of transformers has led to a shift in this paradigm, given their superior performance. Yet, transformers suffer from O(N^2) attention complexity and challenges in handling inductive bias. Several variations have been proposed to address these issues which use spectral networks or convolutions and have performed well on a range of tasks. However, they still have difficulty in dealing with long sequences. State Space Models(SSMs) have emerged as promising alternatives for sequence modeling paradigms in this context, especially with the advent of S4 and its variants, such as S4nd, Hippo, Hyena, Diagnol State Spaces (DSS), Gated State Spaces (GSS), Linear Recurrent Unit (LRU), Liquid-S4, Mamba, etc. In this survey, we categorize the foundational SSMs based on three paradigms namely, Gating architectures, Structural architectures, and Recurrent architectures. This survey also highlights diverse applications of SSMs across domains such as vision, video, audio, speech, language (especially long sequence modeling), medical (including genomics), chemical (like drug design), recommendation systems, and time series analysis, including tabular data. Moreover, we consolidate the performance of SSMs on benchmark datasets like Long Range Arena (LRA), WikiText, Glue, Pile, ImageNet, Kinetics-400, sstv2, as well as video datasets such as Breakfast, COIN, LVU, and various time series datasets. The project page for Mamba-360 work is available on this webpage.https://github.com/badripatro/mamba360.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) are becoming the leading paradigm for generative models. It has recently shown breakthroughs in audio synthesis, time series imputation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose Diffusion-TS, a novel diffusion-based framework that generates multivariate time series samples of high quality by using an encoder-decoder transformer with disentangled temporal representations, in which the decomposition technique guides Diffusion-TS to capture the semantic meaning of time series while transformers mine detailed sequential information from the noisy model input. Different from existing diffusion-based approaches, we train the model to directly reconstruct the sample instead of the noise in each diffusion step, combining a Fourier-based loss term. Diffusion-TS is expected to generate time series satisfying both interpretablity and realness. In addition, it is shown that the proposed Diffusion-TS can be easily extended to conditional generation tasks, such as forecasting and imputation, without any model changes. This also motivates us to further explore the performance of Diffusion-TS under irregular settings. Finally, through qualitative and quantitative experiments, results show that Diffusion-TS achieves the state-of-the-art results on various realistic analyses of time series.

Transformer is a deep neural network that employs a self-attention mechanism to comprehend the contextual relationships within sequential data. Unlike conventional neural networks or updated versions of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), transformer models excel in handling long dependencies between input sequence elements and enable parallel processing. As a result, transformer-based models have attracted substantial interest among researchers in the field of artificial intelligence. This can be attributed to their immense potential and remarkable achievements, not only in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks but also in a wide range of domains, including computer vision, audio and speech processing, healthcare, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Although several survey papers have been published highlighting the transformer's contributions in specific fields, architectural differences, or performance evaluations, there is still a significant absence of a comprehensive survey paper encompassing its major applications across various domains. Therefore, we undertook the task of filling this gap by conducting an extensive survey of proposed transformer models from 2017 to 2022. Our survey encompasses the identification of the top five application domains for transformer-based models, namely: NLP, Computer Vision, Multi-Modality, Audio and Speech Processing, and Signal Processing. We analyze the impact of highly influential transformer-based models in these domains and subsequently classify them based on their respective tasks using a proposed taxonomy. Our aim is to shed light on the existing potential and future possibilities of transformers for enthusiastic researchers, thus contributing to the broader understanding of this groundbreaking technology.

Transformer models have revolutionized natural language processing with their unparalleled ability to grasp complex contextual relationships. However, the vast number of parameters in these models has raised concerns regarding computational efficiency, environmental impact, and deployability on resource-limited platforms. To address these challenges, this paper investigates the application of weight pruning-a strategic reduction of model parameters based on their significance-as an optimization strategy for Transformer architectures. Through extensive experimentation, we explore various pruning methodologies, highlighting their impact on model performance, size, and computational demands. Our findings suggest that with judicious selection of pruning hyperparameters, significant reductions in model size are attainable without considerable compromise on performance. Moreover, when coupled with post-pruning fine-tuning strategies, some pruned models even exhibit enhanced generalization capabilities. This work seeks to bridge the gap between model efficiency and performance, paving the way for more scalable and environmentally responsible deep learning applications.

In this study, we introduce an innovative deep learning framework that employs a transformer model to address the challenges of mixed-integer programs, specifically focusing on the Capacitated Lot Sizing Problem (CLSP). Our approach, to our knowledge, is the first to utilize transformers to predict the binary variables of a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. Specifically, our approach harnesses the encoder decoder transformer's ability to process sequential data, making it well-suited for predicting binary variables indicating production setup decisions in each period of the CLSP. This problem is inherently dynamic, and we need to handle sequential decision making under constraints. We present an efficient algorithm in which CLSP solutions are learned through a transformer neural network. The proposed post-processed transformer algorithm surpasses the state-of-the-art solver, CPLEX and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in solution time, optimal gap, and percent infeasibility over 240K benchmark CLSP instances tested. After the ML model is trained, conducting inference on the model, reduces the MIP into a linear program (LP). This transforms the ML-based algorithm, combined with an LP solver, into a polynomial-time approximation algorithm to solve a well-known NP-Hard problem, with almost perfect solution quality.

Modern techniques like contrastive learning have been effectively used in many areas, including computer vision, natural language processing, and graph-structured data. Creating positive examples that assist the model in learning robust and discriminative representations is a crucial stage in contrastive learning approaches. Usually, preset human intuition directs the selection of relevant data augmentations. Due to patterns that are easily recognized by humans, this rule of thumb works well in the vision and language domains. However, it is impractical to visually inspect the temporal structures in time series. The diversity of time series augmentations at both the dataset and instance levels makes it difficult to choose meaningful augmentations on the fly. In this study, we address this gap by analyzing time series data augmentation using information theory and summarizing the most commonly adopted augmentations in a unified format. We then propose a contrastive learning framework with parametric augmentation, AutoTCL, which can be adaptively employed to support time series representation learning. The proposed approach is encoder-agnostic, allowing it to be seamlessly integrated with different backbone encoders. Experiments on univariate forecasting tasks demonstrate the highly competitive results of our method, with an average 6.5\% reduction in MSE and 4.7\% in MAE over the leading baselines. In classification tasks, AutoTCL achieves a 1.2% increase in average accuracy.

The transformer model is known to be computationally demanding, and prohibitively costly for long sequences, as the self-attention module uses a quadratic time and space complexity with respect to sequence length. Many researchers have focused on designing new forms of self-attention or introducing new parameters to overcome this limitation, however a large portion of them prohibits the model to inherit weights from large pretrained models. In this work, the transformer's inefficiency has been taken care of from another perspective. We propose Fourier Transformer, a simple yet effective approach by progressively removing redundancies in hidden sequence using the ready-made Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) operator to perform Discrete Cosine Transformation (DCT). Fourier Transformer is able to significantly reduce computational costs while retain the ability to inherit from various large pretrained models. Experiments show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performances among all transformer-based models on the long-range modeling benchmark LRA with significant improvement in both speed and space. For generative seq-to-seq tasks including CNN/DailyMail and ELI5, by inheriting the BART weights our model outperforms the standard BART and other efficient models. Our code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/LUMIA-Group/FourierTransformer}

Inference from large autoregressive models like Transformers is slow - decoding K tokens takes K serial runs of the model. In this work we introduce speculative decoding - an algorithm to sample from autoregressive models faster without any changes to the outputs, by computing several tokens in parallel. At the heart of our approach lie the observations that (1) hard language-modeling tasks often include easier subtasks that can be approximated well by more efficient models, and (2) using speculative execution and a novel sampling method, we can make exact decoding from the large models faster, by running them in parallel on the outputs of the approximation models, potentially generating several tokens concurrently, and without changing the distribution. Our method can accelerate existing off-the-shelf models without retraining or architecture changes. We demonstrate it on T5-XXL and show a 2X-3X acceleration compared to the standard T5X implementation, with identical outputs.

Generating time series data using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) presents several prevalent challenges, such as slow convergence, information loss in embedding spaces, instability, and performance variability depending on the series length. To tackle these obstacles, we introduce a robust framework aimed at addressing and mitigating these issues effectively. This advanced framework integrates the benefits of an Autoencoder-generated embedding space with the adversarial training dynamics of GANs. This framework benefits from a time series-based loss function and oversight from a supervisory network, both of which capture the stepwise conditional distributions of the data effectively. The generator functions within the latent space, while the discriminator offers essential feedback based on the feature space. Moreover, we introduce an early generation algorithm and an improved neural network architecture to enhance stability and ensure effective generalization across both short and long time series. Through joint training, our framework consistently outperforms existing benchmarks, generating high-quality time series data across a range of real and synthetic datasets with diverse characteristics.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

Large transformer models powered by diverse data and model scale have dominated natural language modeling and computer vision and pushed the frontier of multiple AI areas. In reinforcement learning (RL), despite many efforts into transformer-based policies, a key limitation, however, is that current transformer-based policies cannot learn by directly combining information from multiple sub-optimal trials. In this work, we address this issue using recently proposed chain of hindsight to relabel experience, where we train a transformer on a sequence of trajectory experience ascending sorted according to their total rewards. Our method consists of relabelling target return of each trajectory to the maximum total reward among in sequence of trajectories and training an autoregressive model to predict actions conditioning on past states, actions, rewards, target returns, and task completion tokens, the resulting model, Agentic Transformer (AT), can learn to improve upon itself both at training and test time. As we show on D4RL and ExoRL benchmarks, to the best our knowledge, this is the first time that a simple transformer-based model performs competitively with both temporal-difference and imitation-learning-based approaches, even from sub-optimal data. Our Agentic Transformer also shows a promising scaling trend that bigger models consistently improve results.

Transformers provide a class of expressive architectures that are extremely effective for sequence modeling. However, the key limitation of transformers is their quadratic memory and time complexity O(L^2) with respect to the sequence length in attention layers, which restricts application in extremely long sequences. Most existing approaches leverage sparsity or low-rank assumptions in the attention matrix to reduce cost, but sacrifice expressiveness. Instead, we propose Combiner, which provides full attention capability in each attention head while maintaining low computation and memory complexity. The key idea is to treat the self-attention mechanism as a conditional expectation over embeddings at each location, and approximate the conditional distribution with a structured factorization. Each location can attend to all other locations, either via direct attention, or through indirect attention to abstractions, which are again conditional expectations of embeddings from corresponding local regions. We show that most sparse attention patterns used in existing sparse transformers are able to inspire the design of such factorization for full attention, resulting in the same sub-quadratic cost (O(Llog(L)) or O(LL)). Combiner is a drop-in replacement for attention layers in existing transformers and can be easily implemented in common frameworks. An experimental evaluation on both autoregressive and bidirectional sequence tasks demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach, yielding state-of-the-art results on several image and text modeling tasks.

This work tackles the information loss bottleneck of vector-quantization (VQ) autoregressive image generation by introducing a novel model architecture called the 2-Dimensional Autoregression (DnD) Transformer. The DnD-Transformer predicts more codes for an image by introducing a new autoregression direction, model depth, along with the sequence length direction. Compared to traditional 1D autoregression and previous work utilizing similar 2D image decomposition such as RQ-Transformer, the DnD-Transformer is an end-to-end model that can generate higher quality images with the same backbone model size and sequence length, opening a new optimization perspective for autoregressive image generation. Furthermore, our experiments reveal that the DnD-Transformer's potential extends beyond generating natural images. It can even generate images with rich text and graphical elements in a self-supervised manner, demonstrating an understanding of these combined modalities. This has not been previously demonstrated for popular vision generative models such as diffusion models, showing a spark of vision-language intelligence when trained solely on images. Code, datasets and models are open at https://github.com/chenllliang/DnD-Transformer.

Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have enabled numerous advances in understanding and reasoning in domains like vision, but we have not yet seen this broad success for time-series. Although prior works on time-series MLLMs have shown promising performance in time-series forecasting, very few works show how an LLM could be used for time-series reasoning in natural language. We propose a novel multi-modal time-series LLM approach that learns generalizable information across various domains with powerful zero-shot performance. First, we train a lightweight time-series encoder on top of an LLM to directly extract time-series information. Then, we fine-tune our model with chain-of-thought augmented time-series tasks to encourage the model to generate reasoning paths. We show that our model learns a latent representation that reflects specific time-series features (e.g. slope, frequency), as well as outperforming GPT-4o on a set of zero-shot reasoning tasks on a variety of domains.

Besides natural language processing, transformers exhibit extraordinary performance in solving broader applications, including scientific computing and computer vision. Previous works try to explain this from the expressive power and capability perspectives that standard transformers are capable of performing some algorithms. To empower transformers with algorithmic capabilities and motivated by the recently proposed looped transformer (Yang et al., 2024; Giannou et al., 2023), we design a novel transformer block, dubbed Algorithm Transformer (abbreviated as AlgoFormer). Compared with the standard transformer and vanilla looped transformer, the proposed AlgoFormer can achieve significantly higher expressiveness in algorithm representation when using the same number of parameters. In particular, inspired by the structure of human-designed learning algorithms, our transformer block consists of a pre-transformer that is responsible for task pre-processing, a looped transformer for iterative optimization algorithms, and a post-transformer for producing the desired results after post-processing. We provide theoretical evidence of the expressive power of the AlgoFormer in solving some challenging problems, mirroring human-designed algorithms. Furthermore, some theoretical and empirical results are presented to show that the designed transformer has the potential to be smarter than human-designed algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate the empirical superiority of the proposed transformer in that it outperforms the standard transformer and vanilla looped transformer in some challenging tasks.

Transformer and its variants are fundamental neural architectures in deep learning. Recent works show that learning attention in the Fourier space can improve the long sequence learning capability of Transformers. We argue that wavelet transform shall be a better choice because it captures both position and frequency information with linear time complexity. Therefore, in this paper, we systematically study the synergy between wavelet transform and Transformers. We propose Wavelet Space Attention (WavSpA) that facilitates attention learning in a learnable wavelet coefficient space which replaces the attention in Transformers by (1) applying forward wavelet transform to project the input sequences to multi-resolution bases, (2) conducting attention learning in the wavelet coefficient space, and (3) reconstructing the representation in input space via backward wavelet transform. Extensive experiments on the Long Range Arena demonstrate that learning attention in the wavelet space using either fixed or adaptive wavelets can consistently improve Transformer's performance and also significantly outperform learning in Fourier space. We further show our method can enhance Transformer's reasoning extrapolation capability over distance on the LEGO chain-of-reasoning task.

This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck for many prediction tasks in agriculture, epidemiology, and climate science. WeatherFormer was pretrained on a large pretraining dataset comprised of 39 years of satellite measurements across the Americas. With a novel pretraining task and fine-tuning, WeatherFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting. Technical innovations include a unique spatiotemporal encoding that captures geographical, annual, and seasonal variations, adapting the transformer architecture to continuous weather data, and a pretraining strategy to learn representations that are robust to missing weather features. This paper for the first time demonstrates the effectiveness of pretraining large transformer encoder models for weather-dependent applications across multiple domains.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Recent advancements in language modeling have shown promising results when applied to time series data. In particular, fine-tuning pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for time series classification tasks has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on standard benchmarks. However, these LLM-based models have a significant drawback due to the large model size, with the number of trainable parameters in the millions. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to leveraging the success of language modeling in the time series domain. Instead of fine-tuning LLMs, we utilize a language embedding model to embed time series and then pair the embeddings with a simple classification head composed of convolutional neural networks (CNN) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). We conducted extensive experiments on well-established time series classification benchmark datasets. We demonstrated LETS-C not only outperforms the current SOTA in classification accuracy but also offers a lightweight solution, using only 14.5% of the trainable parameters on average compared to the SOTA model. Our findings suggest that leveraging language encoders to embed time series data, combined with a simple yet effective classification head, offers a promising direction for achieving high-performance time series classification while maintaining a lightweight model architecture.

Recently, large-scale transformer-based models have been proven to be effective over various tasks across many domains. Nevertheless, applying them in industrial production requires tedious and heavy works to reduce inference costs. To fill such a gap, we introduce a scalable inference solution: Easy and Efficient Transformer (EET), including a series of transformer inference optimization at the algorithm and implementation levels. First, we design highly optimized kernels for long inputs and large hidden sizes. Second, we propose a flexible CUDA memory manager to reduce the memory footprint when deploying a large model. Compared with the state-of-the-art transformer inference library (Faster Transformer v4.0), EET can achieve an average of 1.40-4.20x speedup on the transformer decoder layer with an A100 GPU

While the Transformer architecture has achieved remarkable success across various domains, a thorough theoretical foundation explaining its optimization dynamics is yet to be fully developed. In this study, we aim to bridge this understanding gap by answering the following two core questions: (1) Which types of Transformer architectures allow Gradient Descent (GD) to achieve guaranteed convergence? and (2) Under what initial conditions and architectural specifics does the Transformer achieve rapid convergence during training? By analyzing the loss landscape of a single Transformer layer using Softmax and Gaussian attention kernels, our work provides concrete answers to these questions. Our findings demonstrate that, with appropriate weight initialization, GD can train a Transformer model (with either kernel type) to achieve a global optimal solution, especially when the input embedding dimension is large. Nonetheless, certain scenarios highlight potential pitfalls: training a Transformer using the Softmax attention kernel may sometimes lead to suboptimal local solutions. In contrast, the Gaussian attention kernel exhibits a much favorable behavior. Our empirical study further validate the theoretical findings.

The Transformer architecture deeply changed the natural language processing, outperforming all previous state-of-the-art models. However, well-known Transformer models like BERT, RoBERTa, and GPT-2 require a huge compute budget to create a high quality contextualised representation. In this paper, we study several efficient pre-training objectives for Transformers-based models. By testing these objectives on different tasks, we determine which of the ELECTRA model's new features is the most relevant. We confirm that Transformers pre-training is improved when the input does not contain masked tokens and that the usage of the whole output to compute the loss reduces training time. Moreover, inspired by ELECTRA, we study a model composed of two blocks; a discriminator and a simple generator based on a statistical model with no impact on the computational performances. Besides, we prove that eliminating the MASK token and considering the whole output during the loss computation are essential choices to improve performance. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to efficiently train BERT-like models using a discriminative approach as in ELECTRA but without a complex generator, which is expensive. Finally, we show that ELECTRA benefits heavily from a state-of-the-art hyper-parameters search.

At present, the mechanisms of in-context learning in Transformers are not well understood and remain mostly an intuition. In this paper, we suggest that training Transformers on auto-regressive objectives is closely related to gradient-based meta-learning formulations. We start by providing a simple weight construction that shows the equivalence of data transformations induced by 1) a single linear self-attention layer and by 2) gradient-descent (GD) on a regression loss. Motivated by that construction, we show empirically that when training self-attention-only Transformers on simple regression tasks either the models learned by GD and Transformers show great similarity or, remarkably, the weights found by optimization match the construction. Thus we show how trained Transformers become mesa-optimizers i.e. learn models by gradient descent in their forward pass. This allows us, at least in the domain of regression problems, to mechanistically understand the inner workings of in-context learning in optimized Transformers. Building on this insight, we furthermore identify how Transformers surpass the performance of plain gradient descent by learning an iterative curvature correction and learn linear models on deep data representations to solve non-linear regression tasks. Finally, we discuss intriguing parallels to a mechanism identified to be crucial for in-context learning termed induction-head (Olsson et al., 2022) and show how it could be understood as a specific case of in-context learning by gradient descent learning within Transformers. Code to reproduce the experiments can be found at https://github.com/google-research/self-organising-systems/tree/master/transformers_learn_icl_by_gd .

While Transformers and other sequence-parallelizable neural network architectures seem like the current state of the art in sequence modeling, they specifically lack state-tracking capabilities. These are important for time-series tasks and logical reasoning. Traditional RNNs like LSTMs and GRUs, as well as modern variants like sLSTM do have these capabilities at the cost of strictly sequential processing. While this is often seen as a strong limitation, we show how fast these networks can get with our hardware-optimization FlashRNN in Triton and CUDA, optimizing kernels to the register level on modern GPUs. We extend traditional RNNs with a parallelization variant that processes multiple RNNs of smaller hidden state in parallel, similar to the head-wise processing in Transformers. To enable flexibility on different GPU variants, we introduce a new optimization framework for hardware-internal cache sizes, memory and compute handling. It models the hardware in a setting using polyhedral-like constraints, including the notion of divisibility. This speeds up the solution process in our ConstrINT library for general integer constraint satisfaction problems (integer CSPs). We show that our kernels can achieve 50x speed-ups over a vanilla PyTorch implementation and allow 40x larger hidden sizes compared to our Triton implementation. Our open-source kernels and the optimization library are released here to boost research in the direction of state-tracking enabled RNNs and sequence modeling: https://github.com/NX-AI/flashrnn

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Transformers have demonstrated effectiveness in in-context solving data-fitting problems from various (latent) models, as reported by Garg et al. However, the absence of an inherent iterative structure in the transformer architecture presents a challenge in emulating the iterative algorithms, which are commonly employed in traditional machine learning methods. To address this, we propose the utilization of looped transformer architecture and its associated training methodology, with the aim of incorporating iterative characteristics into the transformer architectures. Experimental results suggest that the looped transformer achieves performance comparable to the standard transformer in solving various data-fitting problems, while utilizing less than 10\% of the parameter count.

Recent research has demonstrated that transformers, particularly linear attention models, implicitly execute gradient-descent-like algorithms on data provided in-context during their forward inference step. However, their capability in handling more complex problems remains unexplored. In this paper, we prove that any linear transformer maintains an implicit linear model and can be interpreted as performing a variant of preconditioned gradient descent. We also investigate the use of linear transformers in a challenging scenario where the training data is corrupted with different levels of noise. Remarkably, we demonstrate that for this problem linear transformers discover an intricate and highly effective optimization algorithm, surpassing or matching in performance many reasonable baselines. We reverse-engineer this algorithm and show that it is a novel approach incorporating momentum and adaptive rescaling based on noise levels. Our findings show that even linear transformers possess the surprising ability to discover sophisticated optimization strategies.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Autoregressive decoding limits the efficiency of transformers for Machine Translation (MT). The community proposed specific network architectures and learning-based methods to solve this issue, which are expensive and require changes to the MT model, trading inference speed at the cost of the translation quality. In this paper, we propose to address the problem from the point of view of decoding algorithms, as a less explored but rather compelling direction. We propose to reframe the standard greedy autoregressive decoding of MT with a parallel formulation leveraging Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel fixed-point iteration methods for fast inference. This formulation allows to speed up existing models without training or modifications while retaining translation quality. We present three parallel decoding algorithms and test them on different languages and models showing how the parallelization introduces a speedup up to 38% w.r.t. the standard autoregressive decoding and nearly 2x when scaling the method on parallel resources. Finally, we introduce a decoding dependency graph visualizer (DDGviz) that let us see how the model has learned the conditional dependence between tokens and inspect the decoding procedure.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

Transformer-based models have gained increasing popularity achieving state-of-the-art performance in many research fields including speech translation. However, Transformer's quadratic complexity with respect to the input sequence length prevents its adoption as is with audio signals, which are typically represented by long sequences. Current solutions resort to an initial sub-optimal compression based on a fixed sampling of raw audio features. Therefore, potentially useful linguistic information is not accessible to higher-level layers in the architecture. To solve this issue, we propose Speechformer, an architecture that, thanks to reduced memory usage in the attention layers, avoids the initial lossy compression and aggregates information only at a higher level according to more informed linguistic criteria. Experiments on three language pairs (en->de/es/nl) show the efficacy of our solution, with gains of up to 0.8 BLEU on the standard MuST-C corpus and of up to 4.0 BLEU in a low resource scenario.

While Transformers have enabled tremendous progress in various application settings, such architectures still lag behind traditional symbolic planners for solving complex decision making tasks. In this work, we demonstrate how to train Transformers to solve complex planning tasks and present Searchformer, a Transformer model that optimally solves previously unseen Sokoban puzzles 93.7% of the time, while using up to 26.8% fewer search steps than standard A^* search. Searchformer is an encoder-decoder Transformer model trained to predict the search dynamics of A^*. This model is then fine-tuned via expert iterations to perform fewer search steps than A^* search while still generating an optimal plan. In our training method, A^*'s search dynamics are expressed as a token sequence outlining when task states are added and removed into the search tree during symbolic planning. In our ablation studies on maze navigation, we find that Searchformer significantly outperforms baselines that predict the optimal plan directly with a 5-10times smaller model size and a 10times smaller training dataset. We also demonstrate how Searchformer scales to larger and more complex decision making tasks like Sokoban with improved percentage of solved tasks and shortened search dynamics.

The field of general time series analysis has recently begun to explore unified modeling, where a common architectural backbone can be retrained on a specific task for a specific dataset. In this work, we approach unification from a complementary vantage point: unification across tasks and domains. To this end, we explore the impact of discrete, learnt, time series data representations that enable generalist, cross-domain training. Our method, TOTEM, or TOkenized Time Series EMbeddings, proposes a simple tokenizer architecture that embeds time series data from varying domains using a discrete vectorized representation learned in a self-supervised manner. TOTEM works across multiple tasks and domains with minimal to no tuning. We study the efficacy of TOTEM with an extensive evaluation on 17 real world time series datasets across 3 tasks. We evaluate both the specialist (i.e., training a model on each domain) and generalist (i.e., training a single model on many domains) settings, and show that TOTEM matches or outperforms previous best methods on several popular benchmarks. The code can be found at: https://github.com/SaberaTalukder/TOTEM.

Transformer models have demonstrated high accuracy in numerous applications but have high complexity and lack sequential processing capability making them ill-suited for many streaming applications at the edge where devices are heavily resource-constrained. Thus motivated, many researchers have proposed reformulating the transformer models as RNN modules which modify the self-attention computation with explicit states. However, these approaches often incur significant performance degradation. The ultimate goal is to develop a model that has the following properties: parallel training, streaming and low-cost inference, and SOTA performance. In this paper, we propose a new direction to achieve this goal. We show how architectural modifications to a recurrent model can help push its performance toward Transformer models while retaining its sequential processing capability. Specifically, inspired by the recent success of Legendre Memory Units (LMU) in sequence learning tasks, we propose LMUFormer, which augments the LMU with convolutional patch embedding and convolutional channel mixer. Moreover, we present a spiking version of this architecture, which introduces the benefit of states within the patch embedding and channel mixer modules while simultaneously reducing the computing complexity. We evaluated our architectures on multiple sequence datasets. In comparison to SOTA transformer-based models within the ANN domain on the SCv2 dataset, our LMUFormer demonstrates comparable performance while necessitating a remarkable 53 times reduction in parameters and a substantial 65 times decrement in FLOPs. Additionally, owing to our model's proficiency in real-time data processing, we can achieve a 32.03% reduction in sequence length, all while incurring an inconsequential decline in performance. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zeyuliu1037/LMUFormer.git.

Inspired by recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) for Natural Language Processing (NLP), there has been a surge in research focused on developing foundational models for time series forecasting. One approach involves training LLM architectures on tokenized time series data using cross-entropy loss. Although this method has demonstrated promising results, cross-entropy loss is primarily designed for classification tasks and does not account for the distance between classes. To address this limitation, we propose using the Wasserstein loss for such architectures. To validate our approach, we fine-tuned a foundational time series model on 22 zero-shot datasets, comparing the performance of cross-entropy loss with that of Wasserstein loss. Our results demonstrate that replacing cross-entropy loss with Wasserstein loss significantly improves point estimation.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Transformer-based models excel in speech recognition. Existing efforts to optimize Transformer inference, typically for long-context applications, center on simplifying attention score calculations. However, streaming speech recognition models usually process a limited number of tokens each time, making attention score calculation less of a bottleneck. Instead, the bottleneck lies in the linear projection layers of multi-head attention and feedforward networks, constituting a substantial portion of the model size and contributing significantly to computation, memory, and power usage. To address this bottleneck, we propose folding attention, a technique targeting these linear layers, significantly reducing model size and improving memory and power efficiency. Experiments on on-device Transformer-based streaming speech recognition models show that folding attention reduces model size (and corresponding memory consumption) by up to 24% and power consumption by up to 23%, all without compromising model accuracy or computation overhead.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Recent studies have discovered that Chain-of-Thought prompting (CoT) can dramatically improve the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly when dealing with complex tasks involving mathematics or reasoning. Despite the enormous empirical success, the underlying mechanisms behind CoT and how it unlocks the potential of LLMs remain elusive. In this paper, we take a first step towards theoretically answering these questions. Specifically, we examine the expressivity of LLMs with CoT in solving fundamental mathematical and decision-making problems. By using circuit complexity theory, we first give impossibility results showing that bounded-depth Transformers are unable to directly produce correct answers for basic arithmetic/equation tasks unless the model size grows super-polynomially with respect to the input length. In contrast, we then prove by construction that autoregressive Transformers of constant size suffice to solve both tasks by generating CoT derivations using a commonly used math language format. Moreover, we show LLMs with CoT can handle a general class of decision-making problems known as Dynamic Programming, thus justifying its power in tackling complex real-world tasks. Finally, an extensive set of experiments show that, while Transformers always fail to directly predict the answers, they can consistently learn to generate correct solutions step-by-step given sufficient CoT demonstrations.

Temporal Graph Neural Networks have garnered substantial attention for their capacity to model evolving structural and temporal patterns while exhibiting impressive performance. However, it is known that these architectures are encumbered by issues that constrain their performance, such as over-squashing and over-smoothing. Meanwhile, Transformers have demonstrated exceptional computational capacity to effectively address challenges related to long-range dependencies. Consequently, we introduce Todyformer-a novel Transformer-based neural network tailored for dynamic graphs. It unifies the local encoding capacity of Message-Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs) with the global encoding of Transformers through i) a novel patchifying paradigm for dynamic graphs to improve over-squashing, ii) a structure-aware parametric tokenization strategy leveraging MPNNs, iii) a Transformer with temporal positional-encoding to capture long-range dependencies, and iv) an encoding architecture that alternates between local and global contextualization, mitigating over-smoothing in MPNNs. Experimental evaluations on public benchmark datasets demonstrate that Todyformer consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods for downstream tasks. Furthermore, we illustrate the underlying aspects of the proposed model in effectively capturing extensive temporal dependencies in dynamic graphs.

One limitation of existing Transformer-based models is that they cannot handle very long sequences as input since their self-attention operations exhibit quadratic time and space complexity. This problem becomes especially acute when Transformers are deployed on hardware platforms equipped only with CPUs. To address this issue, we propose a novel method for accelerating self-attention at inference time that works with pretrained Transformer models out-of-the-box without requiring retraining. We experiment using our method to accelerate various long-sequence Transformers, including a leading LLaMA 2-based LLM, on various benchmarks and demonstrate a greater speedup of 2.73x - 7.63x while retaining 98.6% - 99.6% of the accuracy of the original pretrained models. The code is available on our project website at https://yuzhenmao.github.io/IceFormer/.

Transformer architecture has shown impressive performance in multiple research domains and has become the backbone of many neural network models. However, there is limited understanding on how it works. In particular, with a simple predictive loss, how the representation emerges from the gradient training dynamics remains a mystery. In this paper, for 1-layer transformer with one self-attention layer plus one decoder layer, we analyze its SGD training dynamics for the task of next token prediction in a mathematically rigorous manner. We open the black box of the dynamic process of how the self-attention layer combines input tokens, and reveal the nature of underlying inductive bias. More specifically, with the assumption (a) no positional encoding, (b) long input sequence, and (c) the decoder layer learns faster than the self-attention layer, we prove that self-attention acts as a discriminative scanning algorithm: starting from uniform attention, it gradually attends more to distinct key tokens for a specific next token to be predicted, and pays less attention to common key tokens that occur across different next tokens. Among distinct tokens, it progressively drops attention weights, following the order of low to high co-occurrence between the key and the query token in the training set. Interestingly, this procedure does not lead to winner-takes-all, but decelerates due to a phase transition that is controllable by the learning rates of the two layers, leaving (almost) fixed token combination. We verify this \emph{scan and snap} dynamics on synthetic and real-world data (WikiText).

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Since its inception in "Attention Is All You Need", transformer architecture has led to revolutionary advancements in NLP. The attention layer within the transformer admits a sequence of input tokens X and makes them interact through pairwise similarities computed as softmax(XQK^top X^top), where (K,Q) are the trainable key-query parameters. In this work, we establish a formal equivalence between the optimization geometry of self-attention and a hard-margin SVM problem that separates optimal input tokens from non-optimal tokens using linear constraints on the outer-products of token pairs. This formalism allows us to characterize the implicit bias of 1-layer transformers optimized with gradient descent: (1) Optimizing the attention layer with vanishing regularization, parameterized by (K,Q), converges in direction to an SVM solution minimizing the nuclear norm of the combined parameter W=KQ^top. Instead, directly parameterizing by W minimizes a Frobenius norm objective. We characterize this convergence, highlighting that it can occur toward locally-optimal directions rather than global ones. (2) Complementing this, we prove the local/global directional convergence of gradient descent under suitable geometric conditions. Importantly, we show that over-parameterization catalyzes global convergence by ensuring the feasibility of the SVM problem and by guaranteeing a benign optimization landscape devoid of stationary points. (3) While our theory applies primarily to linear prediction heads, we propose a more general SVM equivalence that predicts the implicit bias with nonlinear heads. Our findings are applicable to arbitrary datasets and their validity is verified via experiments. We also introduce several open problems and research directions. We believe these findings inspire the interpretation of transformers as a hierarchy of SVMs that separates and selects optimal tokens.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

AdamW has been the default optimizer for transformer pretraining. For many years, our community searches for faster and more stable optimizers with only constraint positive outcomes. In this work, we propose a single-line modification in Pytorch to any momentum-based optimizer, which we rename Cautious Optimizer, e.g. C-AdamW and C-Lion. Our theoretical result shows that this modification preserves Adam's Hamiltonian function and it does not break the convergence guarantee under the Lyapunov analysis. In addition, a whole new family of optimizers is revealed by our theoretical insight. Among them, we pick the simplest one for empirical experiments, showing speed-up on Llama and MAE pretraining up to 1.47times. Code is available at https://github.com/kyleliang919/C-Optim

Iterative improvement of model architectures is fundamental to deep learning: Transformers first enabled scaling, and recent advances in model hybridization have pushed the quality-efficiency frontier. However, optimizing architectures remains challenging and expensive. Current automated or manual approaches fall short, largely due to limited progress in the design of search spaces and due to the simplicity of resulting patterns and heuristics. In this work, we propose a new approach for the synthesis of tailored architectures (STAR). Our approach combines a novel search space based on the theory of linear input-varying systems, supporting a hierarchical numerical encoding into architecture genomes. STAR genomes are automatically refined and recombined with gradient-free, evolutionary algorithms to optimize for multiple model quality and efficiency metrics. Using STAR, we optimize large populations of new architectures, leveraging diverse computational units and interconnection patterns, improving over highly-optimized Transformers and striped hybrid models on the frontier of quality, parameter size, and inference cache for autoregressive language modeling.

Large Transformer models have been central to recent advances in natural language processing. The training and inference costs of these models, however, have grown rapidly and become prohibitively expensive. Here we aim to reduce the costs of Transformers by searching for a more efficient variant. Compared to previous approaches, our search is performed at a lower level, over the primitives that define a Transformer TensorFlow program. We identify an architecture, named Primer, that has a smaller training cost than the original Transformer and other variants for auto-regressive language modeling. Primer's improvements can be mostly attributed to two simple modifications: squaring ReLU activations and adding a depthwise convolution layer after each Q, K, and V projection in self-attention. Experiments show Primer's gains over Transformer increase as compute scale grows and follow a power law with respect to quality at optimal model sizes. We also verify empirically that Primer can be dropped into different codebases to significantly speed up training without additional tuning. For example, at a 500M parameter size, Primer improves the original T5 architecture on C4 auto-regressive language modeling, reducing the training cost by 4X. Furthermore, the reduced training cost means Primer needs much less compute to reach a target one-shot performance. For instance, in a 1.9B parameter configuration similar to GPT-3 XL, Primer uses 1/3 of the training compute to achieve the same one-shot performance as Transformer. We open source our models and several comparisons in T5 to help with reproducibility.

Autoregressive Transformers adopted in Large Language Models (LLMs) are hard to scale to long sequences. Despite several works trying to reduce their computational cost, most of LLMs still adopt attention layers between all pairs of tokens in the sequence, thus incurring a quadratic cost. In this study, we present a novel approach that dynamically prunes contextual information while preserving the model's expressiveness, resulting in reduced memory and computational requirements during inference. Our method employs a learnable mechanism that determines which uninformative tokens can be dropped from the context at any point across the generation process. By doing so, our approach not only addresses performance concerns but also enhances interpretability, providing valuable insight into the model's decision-making process. Our technique can be applied to existing pre-trained models through a straightforward fine-tuning process, and the pruning strength can be specified by a sparsity parameter. Notably, our empirical findings demonstrate that we can effectively prune up to 80\% of the context without significant performance degradation on downstream tasks, offering a valuable tool for mitigating inference costs. Our reference implementation achieves up to 2times increase in inference throughput and even greater memory savings.

In this work, we explore whether modeling recurrence into the Transformer architecture can both be beneficial and efficient, by building an extremely simple recurrent module into the Transformer. We compare our model to baselines following the training and evaluation recipe of BERT. Our results confirm that recurrence can indeed improve Transformer models by a consistent margin, without requiring low-level performance optimizations, and while keeping the number of parameters constant. For example, our base model achieves an absolute improvement of 2.1 points averaged across 10 tasks and also demonstrates increased stability in fine-tuning over a range of learning rates.

Multivariate time series forecasting tasks are usually conducted in a channel-dependent (CD) way since it can incorporate more variable-relevant information. However, it may also involve a lot of irrelevant variables, and this even leads to worse performance than the channel-independent (CI) strategy. This paper combines the strengths of both strategies and proposes the Deep Graph Clustering Transformer (DGCformer) for multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, it first groups these relevant variables by a graph convolutional network integrated with an autoencoder, and a former-latter masked self-attention mechanism is then considered with the CD strategy being applied to each group of variables while the CI one for different groups. Extensive experimental results on eight datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art models, and our code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since the collected time series data can be contaminated in practice. The forecasting model will be inferior if it is directly trained by time series with anomalies. Thus it is essential to develop methods to automatically learn a robust forecasting model from the contaminated data. In this paper, we first statistically define three types of anomalies, then theoretically and experimentally analyze the loss robustness and sample robustness when these anomalies exist. Based on our analyses, we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn a robust forecasting model. Extensive experiments show that our method is highly robust and outperforms all existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haochenglouis/RobustTSF.

The generation of high-quality, long-sequenced time-series data is essential due to its wide range of applications. In the past, standalone Recurrent and Convolutional Neural Network-based Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) were used to synthesize time-series data. However, they are inadequate for generating long sequences of time-series data due to limitations in the architecture. Furthermore, GANs are well known for their training instability and mode collapse problem. To address this, we propose TransFusion, a diffusion, and transformers-based generative model to generate high-quality long-sequence time-series data. We have stretched the sequence length to 384, and generated high-quality synthetic data. Also, we introduce two evaluation metrics to evaluate the quality of the synthetic data as well as its predictive characteristics. We evaluate TransFusion with a wide variety of visual and empirical metrics, and TransFusion outperforms the previous state-of-the-art by a significant margin.

Transformer models are foundational to natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision. Despite various recent works devoted to reducing the quadratic cost of such models (as a function of the sequence length n), dealing with ultra long sequences efficiently (e.g., with more than 16K tokens) remains challenging. Applications such as answering questions based on an entire book or summarizing a scientific article are inefficient or infeasible. In this paper, we propose to significantly reduce the dependency of a Transformer model's complexity on n, by compressing the input into a representation whose size r is independent of n at each layer. Specifically, by exploiting the fact that in many tasks, only a small subset of special tokens (we call VIP-tokens) are most relevant to the final prediction, we propose a VIP-token centric compression (Vcc) scheme which selectively compresses the input sequence based on their impact on approximating the representation of these VIP-tokens. Compared with competitive baselines, the proposed algorithm not only is efficient (achieving more than 3times efficiency improvement compared to baselines on 4K and 16K lengths), but also achieves competitive or better performance on a large number of tasks. Further, we show that our algorithm can be scaled to 128K tokens (or more) while consistently offering accuracy improvement.

Owing to their ability to both effectively integrate information over long time horizons and scale to massive amounts of data, self-attention architectures have recently shown breakthrough success in natural language processing (NLP), achieving state-of-the-art results in domains such as language modeling and machine translation. Harnessing the transformer's ability to process long time horizons of information could provide a similar performance boost in partially observable reinforcement learning (RL) domains, but the large-scale transformers used in NLP have yet to be successfully applied to the RL setting. In this work we demonstrate that the standard transformer architecture is difficult to optimize, which was previously observed in the supervised learning setting but becomes especially pronounced with RL objectives. We propose architectural modifications that substantially improve the stability and learning speed of the original Transformer and XL variant. The proposed architecture, the Gated Transformer-XL (GTrXL), surpasses LSTMs on challenging memory environments and achieves state-of-the-art results on the multi-task DMLab-30 benchmark suite, exceeding the performance of an external memory architecture. We show that the GTrXL, trained using the same losses, has stability and performance that consistently matches or exceeds a competitive LSTM baseline, including on more reactive tasks where memory is less critical. GTrXL offers an easy-to-train, simple-to-implement but substantially more expressive architectural alternative to the standard multi-layer LSTM ubiquitously used for RL agents in partially observable environments.

Transformer models cannot easily scale to long sequences due to their O(N^2) time and space complexity. This has led to Transformer variants seeking to lower computational complexity, such as Longformer and Performer. While such models have theoretically greater efficiency, their effectiveness on real NLP tasks has not been well studied. We benchmark 7 variants of Transformer models on 5 difficult NLP tasks and 7 datasets. We design experiments to isolate the effect of pretraining and hyperparameter settings, to focus on their capacity for long-range attention. Moreover, we present various methods to investigate attention behaviors to illuminate model details beyond metric scores. We find that the modified attention in long-range transformers has advantages on content selection and query-guided decoding, but they come with previously unrecognized drawbacks such as insufficient attention to distant tokens and accumulated approximation error.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Recently, sequence learning methods have been applied to the problem of off-policy Reinforcement Learning, including the seminal work on Decision Transformers, which employs transformers for this task. Since transformers are parameter-heavy, cannot benefit from history longer than a fixed window size, and are not computed using recurrence, we set out to investigate the suitability of the S4 family of models, which are based on state-space layers and have been shown to outperform transformers, especially in modeling long-range dependencies. In this work we present two main algorithms: (i) an off-policy training procedure that works with trajectories, while still maintaining the training efficiency of the S4 model. (ii) An on-policy training procedure that is trained in a recurrent manner, benefits from long-range dependencies, and is based on a novel stable actor-critic mechanism. Our results indicate that our method outperforms multiple variants of decision transformers, as well as the other baseline methods on most tasks, while reducing the latency, number of parameters, and training time by several orders of magnitude, making our approach more suitable for real-world RL.

With the tremendous success of large transformer models in natural language understanding, down-sizing them for cost-effective deployments has become critical. Recent studies have explored the low-rank weight factorization techniques which are efficient to train, and apply out-of-the-box to any transformer architecture. Unfortunately, the low-rank assumption tends to be over-restrictive and hinders the expressiveness of the compressed model. This paper proposes, DSFormer, a simple alternative factorization scheme which expresses a target weight matrix as the product of a small dense and a semi-structured sparse matrix. The resulting approximation is more faithful to the weight distribution in transformers and therefore achieves a stronger efficiency-accuracy trade-off. Another concern with existing factorizers is their dependence on a task-unaware initialization step which degrades the accuracy of the resulting model. DSFormer addresses this issue through a novel Straight-Through Factorizer (STF) algorithm that jointly learns all the weight factorizations to directly maximize the final task accuracy. Extensive experiments on multiple natural language understanding benchmarks demonstrate that DSFormer obtains up to 40% better compression than the state-of-the-art low-rank factorizers, leading semi-structured sparsity baselines and popular knowledge distillation approaches. Our approach is also orthogonal to mainstream compressors and offers up to 50% additional compression when added to popular distilled, layer-shared and quantized transformers. We empirically evaluate the benefits of STF over conventional optimization practices.

Contrastive learning has shown to be effective to learn representations from time series in a self-supervised way. However, contrasting similar time series instances or values from adjacent timestamps within a time series leads to ignore their inherent correlations, which results in deteriorating the quality of learned representations. To address this issue, we propose SoftCLT, a simple yet effective soft contrastive learning strategy for time series. This is achieved by introducing instance-wise and temporal contrastive loss with soft assignments ranging from zero to one. Specifically, we define soft assignments for 1) instance-wise contrastive loss by the distance between time series on the data space, and 2) temporal contrastive loss by the difference of timestamps. SoftCLT is a plug-and-play method for time series contrastive learning that improves the quality of learned representations without bells and whistles. In experiments, we demonstrate that SoftCLT consistently improves the performance in various downstream tasks including classification, semi-supervised learning, transfer learning, and anomaly detection, showing state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/softclt.

Transformers have become keystone models in natural language processing over the past decade. They have achieved great popularity in deep learning applications, but the increasing sizes of the parameter spaces required by transformer models generate a commensurate need to accelerate performance. Natural language processing problems are also routinely faced with variable-length sequences, as word counts commonly vary among sentences. Existing deep learning frameworks pad variable-length sequences to a maximal length, which adds significant memory and computational overhead. In this paper, we present ByteTransformer, a high-performance transformer boosted for variable-length inputs. We propose a padding-free algorithm that liberates the entire transformer from redundant computations on zero padded tokens. In addition to algorithmic-level optimization, we provide architecture-aware optimizations for transformer functional modules, especially the performance-critical algorithm Multi-Head Attention (MHA). Experimental results on an NVIDIA A100 GPU with variable-length sequence inputs validate that our fused MHA outperforms PyTorch by 6.13x. The end-to-end performance of ByteTransformer for a forward BERT transformer surpasses state-of-the-art transformer frameworks, such as PyTorch JIT, TensorFlow XLA, Tencent TurboTransformer, Microsoft DeepSpeed-Inference and NVIDIA FasterTransformer, by 87\%, 131\%, 138\%, 74\% and 55\%, respectively. We also demonstrate the general applicability of our optimization methods to other BERT-like models, including ALBERT, DistilBERT, and DeBERTa.

Spatiotemporal predictive learning methods generally fall into two categories: recurrent-based approaches, which face challenges in parallelization and performance, and recurrent-free methods, which employ convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as encoder-decoder architectures. These methods benefit from strong inductive biases but often at the expense of scalability and generalization. This paper proposes PredFormer, a pure transformer-based framework for spatiotemporal predictive learning. Motivated by the Vision Transformers (ViT) design, PredFormer leverages carefully designed Gated Transformer blocks, following a comprehensive analysis of 3D attention mechanisms, including full-, factorized-, and interleaved-spatial-temporal attention. With its recurrent-free, transformer-based design, PredFormer is both simple and efficient, significantly outperforming previous methods by large margins. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that PredFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance. On Moving MNIST, PredFormer achieves a 51.3% reduction in MSE relative to SimVP. For TaxiBJ, the model decreases MSE by 33.1% and boosts FPS from 533 to 2364. Additionally, on WeatherBench, it reduces MSE by 11.1% while enhancing FPS from 196 to 404. These performance gains in both accuracy and efficiency demonstrate PredFormer's potential for real-world applications. The source code will be released at https://github.com/yyyujintang/PredFormer .

Foundation models have emerged as a promising approach in time series forecasting (TSF). Existing approaches either fine-tune large language models (LLMs) or build large-scale time-series datasets to develop TSF foundation models. However, these methods face challenges due to the severe cross-domain gap or in-domain heterogeneity. In this paper, we explore a new road to building a TSF foundation model from rich and high-quality natural images, based on the intrinsic similarities between images and time series. To bridge the gap between the two domains, we reformulate the TSF task as an image reconstruction task, which is further processed by a visual masked autoencoder (MAE) self-supervised pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset. Surprisingly, without further adaptation in the time-series domain, the proposed VisionTS could achieve superior zero-shot forecasting performance compared to existing TSF foundation models. With minimal fine-tuning, VisionTS could further improve the forecasting and achieve state-of-the-art performance in most cases. These findings suggest that visual models could be a free lunch for TSF and highlight the potential for future cross-domain research between computer vision and TSF. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Keytoyze/VisionTS.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

We present FIT: a transformer-based architecture with efficient self-attention and adaptive computation. Unlike original transformers, which operate on a single sequence of data tokens, we divide the data tokens into groups, with each group being a shorter sequence of tokens. We employ two types of transformer layers: local layers operate on data tokens within each group, while global layers operate on a smaller set of introduced latent tokens. These layers, comprising the same set of self-attention and feed-forward layers as standard transformers, are interleaved, and cross-attention is used to facilitate information exchange between data and latent tokens within the same group. The attention complexity is O(n^2) locally within each group of size n, but can reach O(L^{{4}/{3}}) globally for sequence length of L. The efficiency can be further enhanced by relying more on global layers that perform adaptive computation using a smaller set of latent tokens. FIT is a versatile architecture and can function as an encoder, diffusion decoder, or autoregressive decoder. We provide initial evidence demonstrating its effectiveness in high-resolution image understanding and generation tasks. Notably, FIT exhibits potential in performing end-to-end training on gigabit-scale data, such as 6400times6400 images, or 160K tokens (after patch tokenization), within a memory capacity of 16GB, without requiring specific optimizations or model parallelism.

Explaining deep learning models operating on time series data is crucial in various applications of interest which require interpretable and transparent insights from time series signals. In this work, we investigate this problem from an information theoretic perspective and show that most existing measures of explainability may suffer from trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. To address these issues, we introduce a simple yet practical objective function for time series explainable learning. The design of the objective function builds upon the principle of information bottleneck (IB), and modifies the IB objective function to avoid trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. We further present TimeX++, a novel explanation framework that leverages a parametric network to produce explanation-embedded instances that are both in-distributed and label-preserving. We evaluate TimeX++ on both synthetic and real-world datasets comparing its performance against leading baselines, and validate its practical efficacy through case studies in a real-world environmental application. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations show that TimeX++ outperforms baselines across all datasets, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/TimeXplusplus.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Transformer has shown state-of-the-art performance on various applications and has recently emerged as a promising tool for surrogate modeling of partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite the introduction of linear-complexity variant, applying attention to a large number of grid points can result in instability and is still expensive to compute. In this work, we propose Factorized Transformer(FactFormer), which is based on an axial factorized kernel integral. Concretely, we introduce a learnable projection operator that decomposes the input function into multiple sub-functions with one-dimensional domain. These sub-functions are then evaluated and used to compute the instance-based kernel with an axial factorized scheme. We showcase that the proposed model is able to simulate 2D Kolmogorov flow on a 256 by 256 grid and 3D smoke buoyancy on a 64 by 64 by 64 grid with good accuracy and efficiency. In addition, we find out that with the factorization scheme, the attention matrices enjoy a more compact spectrum than full softmax-free attention matrices.

Learning to classify time series with limited data is a practical yet challenging problem. Current methods are primarily based on hand-designed feature extraction rules or domain-specific data augmentation. Motivated by the advances in deep speech processing models and the fact that voice data are univariate temporal signals, in this paper, we propose Voice2Series (V2S), a novel end-to-end approach that reprograms acoustic models for time series classification, through input transformation learning and output label mapping. Leveraging the representation learning power of a large-scale pre-trained speech processing model, on 30 different time series tasks we show that V2S performs competitive results on 19 time series classification tasks. We further provide a theoretical justification of V2S by proving its population risk is upper bounded by the source risk and a Wasserstein distance accounting for feature alignment via reprogramming. Our results offer new and effective means to time series classification.

We explore deep autoregressive Transformer models in language modeling for speech recognition. We focus on two aspects. First, we revisit Transformer model configurations specifically for language modeling. We show that well configured Transformer models outperform our baseline models based on the shallow stack of LSTM recurrent neural network layers. We carry out experiments on the open-source LibriSpeech 960hr task, for both 200K vocabulary word-level and 10K byte-pair encoding subword-level language modeling. We apply our word-level models to conventional hybrid speech recognition by lattice rescoring, and the subword-level models to attention based encoder-decoder models by shallow fusion. Second, we show that deep Transformer language models do not require positional encoding. The positional encoding is an essential augmentation for the self-attention mechanism which is invariant to sequence ordering. However, in autoregressive setup, as is the case for language modeling, the amount of information increases along the position dimension, which is a positional signal by its own. The analysis of attention weights shows that deep autoregressive self-attention models can automatically make use of such positional information. We find that removing the positional encoding even slightly improves the performance of these models.

Removing modeling constraints and unifying architectures across domains has been a key driver of the recent progress in training large multimodal models. However, most of these models still rely on many separately trained components such as modality-specific encoders and decoders. In this work, we further streamline joint generative modeling of images and text. We propose an autoregressive decoder-only transformer - JetFormer - which is trained to directly maximize the likelihood of raw data, without relying on any separately pretrained components, and can understand and generate both text and images. Specifically, we leverage a normalizing flow model to obtain a soft-token image representation that is jointly trained with an autoregressive multimodal transformer. The normalizing flow model serves as both an image encoder for perception tasks and an image decoder for image generation tasks during inference. JetFormer achieves text-to-image generation quality competitive with recent VQ-VAE- and VAE-based baselines. These baselines rely on pretrained image autoencoders, which are trained with a complex mixture of losses, including perceptual ones. At the same time, JetFormer demonstrates robust image understanding capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, JetFormer is the first model that is capable of generating high-fidelity images and producing strong log-likelihood bounds.

Recently, numerous efficient Transformers have been proposed to reduce the quadratic computational complexity of standard Transformers caused by the Softmax attention. However, most of them simply swap Softmax with an efficient attention mechanism without considering the customized architectures specially for the efficient attention. In this paper, we argue that the handcrafted vanilla Transformer architectures for Softmax attention may not be suitable for efficient Transformers. To address this issue, we propose a new framework to find optimal architectures for efficient Transformers with the neural architecture search (NAS) technique. The proposed method is validated on popular machine translation and image classification tasks. We observe that the optimal architecture of the efficient Transformer has the reduced computation compared with that of the standard Transformer, but the general accuracy is less comparable. It indicates that the Softmax attention and efficient attention have their own distinctions but neither of them can simultaneously balance the accuracy and efficiency well. This motivates us to mix the two types of attention to reduce the performance imbalance. Besides the search spaces that commonly used in existing NAS Transformer approaches, we propose a new search space that allows the NAS algorithm to automatically search the attention variants along with architectures. Extensive experiments on WMT' 14 En-De and CIFAR-10 demonstrate that our searched architecture maintains comparable accuracy to the standard Transformer with notably improved computational efficiency.

In this thesis, we introduce Greenformers, a collection of model efficiency methods to improve the model efficiency of the recently renowned transformer models with a low-rank approximation approach. The development trend of deep learning models tends to results in a more complex and larger model. Although it leads to a better and more accurate prediction, the resulting model becomes even more costly, as it requires weeks of training with a huge amount of GPU resources. Particularly, the size and computational cost of transformer-based models have increased tremendously since its first debut in 2017 from ~100 million parameters up to ~1.6 trillion parameters in early 2021. This computationally hungry model also incurs a substantial cost to the environment and even reaches an alarming level of carbon footprint. Some of these models are so massive that it is even impossible to run the model without a GPU cluster. Greenformers improve the model efficiency of transformer models by applying low-rank approximation approaches. Specifically, we propose a low-rank factorization approach to improve the efficiency of the transformer model called Low-Rank Transformer. We further compare our model with an existing low-rank factorization approach called Linformer. Based on our analysis, the Low-Rank Transformer model is suitable for improving both the time and memory efficiency in processing short-sequence (<= 512) input data, while the Linformer model is suitable for improving the efficiency in processing long-sequence input data (>= 512). We also show that Low-Rank Transformer is more suitable for on-device deployment, as it significantly reduces the model size. Additionally, we estimate that applying LRT to the existing BERT-base model can significantly reduce the computational, economical, and environmental costs for developing such models by more than 30% of its original costs.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Transformers have significantly impacted domains like natural language processing, computer vision, and robotics, where they improve performance compared to other neural networks. This survey explores how transformers are used in reinforcement learning (RL), where they are seen as a promising solution for addressing challenges such as unstable training, credit assignment, lack of interpretability, and partial observability. We begin by providing a brief domain overview of RL, followed by a discussion on the challenges of classical RL algorithms. Next, we delve into the properties of the transformer and its variants and discuss the characteristics that make them well-suited to address the challenges inherent in RL. We examine the application of transformers to various aspects of RL, including representation learning, transition and reward function modeling, and policy optimization. We also discuss recent research that aims to enhance the interpretability and efficiency of transformers in RL, using visualization techniques and efficient training strategies. Often, the transformer architecture must be tailored to the specific needs of a given application. We present a broad overview of how transformers have been adapted for several applications, including robotics, medicine, language modeling, cloud computing, and combinatorial optimization. We conclude by discussing the limitations of using transformers in RL and assess their potential for catalyzing future breakthroughs in this field.

The attention module, which is a crucial component in Transformer, cannot scale efficiently to long sequences due to its quadratic complexity. Many works focus on approximating the dot-then-exponentiate softmax function in the original attention, leading to sub-quadratic or even linear-complexity Transformer architectures. However, we show that these methods cannot be applied to more powerful attention modules that go beyond the dot-then-exponentiate style, e.g., Transformers with relative positional encoding (RPE). Since in many state-of-the-art models, relative positional encoding is used as default, designing efficient Transformers that can incorporate RPE is appealing. In this paper, we propose a novel way to accelerate attention calculation for Transformers with RPE on top of the kernelized attention. Based upon the observation that relative positional encoding forms a Toeplitz matrix, we mathematically show that kernelized attention with RPE can be calculated efficiently using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). With FFT, our method achieves O(nlog n) time complexity. Interestingly, we further demonstrate that properly using relative positional encoding can mitigate the training instability problem of vanilla kernelized attention. On a wide range of tasks, we empirically show that our models can be trained from scratch without any optimization issues. The learned model performs better than many efficient Transformer variants and is faster than standard Transformer in the long-sequence regime.

The two dominant approaches to neural text generation are fully autoregressive models, using serial beam search decoding, and non-autoregressive models, using parallel decoding with no output dependencies. This work proposes an autoregressive model with sub-linear parallel time generation. Noting that conditional random fields with bounded context can be decoded in parallel, we propose an efficient cascaded decoding approach for generating high-quality output. To parameterize this cascade, we introduce a Markov transformer, a variant of the popular fully autoregressive model that allows us to simultaneously decode with specific autoregressive context cutoffs. This approach requires only a small modification from standard autoregressive training, while showing competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.

Understanding the inner workings of machine learning models like Transformers is vital for their safe and ethical use. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of a one-layer Transformer model trained to perform n-digit integer addition. Our findings suggest that the model dissects the task into parallel streams dedicated to individual digits, employing varied algorithms tailored to different positions within the digits. Furthermore, we identify a rare scenario characterized by high loss, which we explain. By thoroughly elucidating the model's algorithm, we provide new insights into its functioning. These findings are validated through rigorous testing and mathematical modeling, thereby contributing to the broader fields of model understanding and interpretability. Our approach opens the door for analyzing more complex tasks and multi-layer Transformer models.

Transformer models trained on long sequences often achieve higher accuracy than short sequences. Unfortunately, conventional transformers struggle with long sequence training due to the overwhelming computation and memory requirements. Existing methods for long sequence training offer limited speedup and memory reduction, and may compromise accuracy. This paper presents a novel and efficient distributed training method, the Long Short-Sequence Transformer (LSS Transformer), for training transformer with long sequences. It distributes a long sequence into segments among GPUs, with each GPU computing a partial self-attention for its segment. Then, it uses a fused communication and a novel double gradient averaging technique to avoid the need to aggregate partial self-attention and minimize communication overhead. We evaluated the performance between LSS Transformer and the state-of-the-art Nvidia sequence parallelism on a Wikipedia enwik8 dataset. Results show that our proposed method lead to 5.6x faster and 10.2x more memory-efficient implementation compared to state-of-the-art sequence parallelism on 144 Nvidia V100 GPUs. Moreover, our algorithm scales to an extreme sequence length of 50,112 at 3,456 GPUs, achieving 161% super-linear parallel efficiency and a throughput of 32 petaflops.

Transformers do not scale very well to long sequence lengths largely because of quadratic self-attention complexity. In the recent months, a wide spectrum of efficient, fast Transformers have been proposed to tackle this problem, more often than not claiming superior or comparable model quality to vanilla Transformer models. To this date, there is no well-established consensus on how to evaluate this class of models. Moreover, inconsistent benchmarking on a wide spectrum of tasks and datasets makes it difficult to assess relative model quality amongst many models. This paper proposes a systematic and unified benchmark, LRA, specifically focused on evaluating model quality under long-context scenarios. Our benchmark is a suite of tasks consisting of sequences ranging from 1K to 16K tokens, encompassing a wide range of data types and modalities such as text, natural, synthetic images, and mathematical expressions requiring similarity, structural, and visual-spatial reasoning. We systematically evaluate ten well-established long-range Transformer models (Reformers, Linformers, Linear Transformers, Sinkhorn Transformers, Performers, Synthesizers, Sparse Transformers, and Longformers) on our newly proposed benchmark suite. LRA paves the way towards better understanding this class of efficient Transformer models, facilitates more research in this direction, and presents new challenging tasks to tackle. Our benchmark code will be released at https://github.com/google-research/long-range-arena.

Transformers have been recently adapted for large scale image classification, achieving high scores shaking up the long supremacy of convolutional neural networks. However the optimization of image transformers has been little studied so far. In this work, we build and optimize deeper transformer networks for image classification. In particular, we investigate the interplay of architecture and optimization of such dedicated transformers. We make two transformers architecture changes that significantly improve the accuracy of deep transformers. This leads us to produce models whose performance does not saturate early with more depth, for instance we obtain 86.5% top-1 accuracy on Imagenet when training with no external data, we thus attain the current SOTA with less FLOPs and parameters. Moreover, our best model establishes the new state of the art on Imagenet with Reassessed labels and Imagenet-V2 / match frequency, in the setting with no additional training data. We share our code and models.

Transformers are widely used for solving tasks in natural language processing, computer vision, speech, and music domains. In this paper, we talk about the efficiency of transformers in terms of memory (the number of parameters), computation cost (number of floating points operations), and performance of models, including accuracy, the robustness of the model, and fair \& bias-free features. We mainly discuss the vision transformer for the image classification task. Our contribution is to introduce an efficient 360 framework, which includes various aspects of the vision transformer, to make it more efficient for industrial applications. By considering those applications, we categorize them into multiple dimensions such as privacy, robustness, transparency, fairness, inclusiveness, continual learning, probabilistic models, approximation, computational complexity, and spectral complexity. We compare various vision transformer models based on their performance, the number of parameters, and the number of floating point operations (FLOPs) on multiple datasets.

State of the art sequence-to-sequence models for large scale tasks perform a fixed number of computations for each input sequence regardless of whether it is easy or hard to process. In this paper, we train Transformer models which can make output predictions at different stages of the network and we investigate different ways to predict how much computation is required for a particular sequence. Unlike dynamic computation in Universal Transformers, which applies the same set of layers iteratively, we apply different layers at every step to adjust both the amount of computation as well as the model capacity. On IWSLT German-English translation our approach matches the accuracy of a well tuned baseline Transformer while using less than a quarter of the decoder layers.