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Mar 14

Learning Delays in Spiking Neural Networks using Dilated Convolutions with Learnable Spacings

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are a promising research direction for building power-efficient information processing systems, especially for temporal tasks such as speech recognition. In SNNs, delays refer to the time needed for one spike to travel from one neuron to another. These delays matter because they influence the spike arrival times, and it is well-known that spiking neurons respond more strongly to coincident input spikes. More formally, it has been shown theoretically that plastic delays greatly increase the expressivity in SNNs. Yet, efficient algorithms to learn these delays have been lacking. Here, we propose a new discrete-time algorithm that addresses this issue in deep feedforward SNNs using backpropagation, in an offline manner. To simulate delays between consecutive layers, we use 1D convolutions across time. The kernels contain only a few non-zero weights - one per synapse - whose positions correspond to the delays. These positions are learned together with the weights using the recently proposed Dilated Convolution with Learnable Spacings (DCLS). We evaluated our method on three datasets: the Spiking Heidelberg Dataset (SHD), the Spiking Speech Commands (SSC) and its non-spiking version Google Speech Commands v0.02 (GSC) benchmarks, which require detecting temporal patterns. We used feedforward SNNs with two or three hidden fully connected layers, and vanilla leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. We showed that fixed random delays help and that learning them helps even more. Furthermore, our method outperformed the state-of-the-art in the three datasets without using recurrent connections and with substantially fewer parameters. Our work demonstrates the potential of delay learning in developing accurate and precise models for temporal data processing. Our code is based on PyTorch / SpikingJelly and available at: https://github.com/Thvnvtos/SNN-delays

DεpS: Delayed ε-Shrinking for Faster Once-For-All Training

CNNs are increasingly deployed across different hardware, dynamic environments, and low-power embedded devices. This has led to the design and training of CNN architectures with the goal of maximizing accuracy subject to such variable deployment constraints. As the number of deployment scenarios grows, there is a need to find scalable solutions to design and train specialized CNNs. Once-for-all training has emerged as a scalable approach that jointly co-trains many models (subnets) at once with a constant training cost and finds specialized CNNs later. The scalability is achieved by training the full model and simultaneously reducing it to smaller subnets that share model weights (weight-shared shrinking). However, existing once-for-all training approaches incur huge training costs reaching 1200 GPU hours. We argue this is because they either start the process of shrinking the full model too early or too late. Hence, we propose Delayed epsilon-Shrinking (DepsilonpS) that starts the process of shrinking the full model when it is partially trained (~50%) which leads to training cost improvement and better in-place knowledge distillation to smaller models. The proposed approach also consists of novel heuristics that dynamically adjust subnet learning rates incrementally (E), leading to improved weight-shared knowledge distillation from larger to smaller subnets as well. As a result, DEpS outperforms state-of-the-art once-for-all training techniques across different datasets including CIFAR10/100, ImageNet-100, and ImageNet-1k on accuracy and cost. It achieves 1.83% higher ImageNet-1k top1 accuracy or the same accuracy with 1.3x reduction in FLOPs and 2.5x drop in training cost (GPU*hrs)

Separating source-intrinsic and Lorentz invariance violation induced delays in the very high energy emission of blazar flares

Aims: The aim of the present study is to explore how to disentangle energy-dependent time delays due to a possible Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) at Planck scale from intrinsic delays expected in standard blazar flares. Methods: We first characterise intrinsic time delays in BL Lacs and Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars in standard one-zone time-dependent synchrotron self-Compton or external Compton models, during flares produced by particle acceleration and cooling processes. We simulate families of flares with both intrinsic and external LIV-induced energy-dependent delays. Discrimination between intrinsic and LIV delays is then investigated in two different ways. A technique based on Euclidean distance calculation between delays obtained in the synchrotron and in the inverse-Compton spectral bumps is used to assess their degree of correlation. A complementary study is performed using spectral hardness versus intensity diagrams in both energy ranges. Results: We show that the presence of non-negligible LIV effects, which essentially act only at very high energies (VHE), can drastically reduce the strong correlation expected between the X-ray and the VHE gamma-ray emission in leptonic scenarios. The LIV phenomenon can then be hinted at measuring the Euclidean distance d_{E} from simultaneous X-ray and gamma-ray flare monitoring. Large values of minimal distance d_{E,min} would directly indicate the influence of non-intrinsic time delays possibly due to LIV in SSC flares. LIV effects can also significantly modify the VHE hysteresis patterns in hardness-intensity diagrams and even change their direction of rotation as compared to the X-ray behaviour. Both observables could be used to discriminate between LIV and intrinsic delays, provided high quality flare observations are available.

PreRoutGNN for Timing Prediction with Order Preserving Partition: Global Circuit Pre-training, Local Delay Learning and Attentional Cell Modeling

Pre-routing timing prediction has been recently studied for evaluating the quality of a candidate cell placement in chip design. It involves directly estimating the timing metrics for both pin-level (slack, slew) and edge-level (net delay, cell delay), without time-consuming routing. However, it often suffers from signal decay and error accumulation due to the long timing paths in large-scale industrial circuits. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage approach. First, we propose global circuit training to pre-train a graph auto-encoder that learns the global graph embedding from circuit netlist. Second, we use a novel node updating scheme for message passing on GCN, following the topological sorting sequence of the learned graph embedding and circuit graph. This scheme residually models the local time delay between two adjacent pins in the updating sequence, and extracts the lookup table information inside each cell via a new attention mechanism. To handle large-scale circuits efficiently, we introduce an order preserving partition scheme that reduces memory consumption while maintaining the topological dependencies. Experiments on 21 real world circuits achieve a new SOTA R2 of 0.93 for slack prediction, which is significantly surpasses 0.59 by previous SOTA method. Code will be available at: https://github.com/Thinklab-SJTU/EDA-AI.

The Lipschitz-Variance-Margin Tradeoff for Enhanced Randomized Smoothing

Real-life applications of deep neural networks are hindered by their unsteady predictions when faced with noisy inputs and adversarial attacks. The certified radius in this context is a crucial indicator of the robustness of models. However how to design an efficient classifier with an associated certified radius? Randomized smoothing provides a promising framework by relying on noise injection into the inputs to obtain a smoothed and robust classifier. In this paper, we first show that the variance introduced by the Monte-Carlo sampling in the randomized smoothing procedure estimate closely interacts with two other important properties of the classifier, i.e. its Lipschitz constant and margin. More precisely, our work emphasizes the dual impact of the Lipschitz constant of the base classifier, on both the smoothed classifier and the empirical variance. To increase the certified robust radius, we introduce a different way to convert logits to probability vectors for the base classifier to leverage the variance-margin trade-off. We leverage the use of Bernstein's concentration inequality along with enhanced Lipschitz bounds for randomized smoothing. Experimental results show a significant improvement in certified accuracy compared to current state-of-the-art methods. Our novel certification procedure allows us to use pre-trained models with randomized smoothing, effectively improving the current certification radius in a zero-shot manner.

Robust Frame-to-Frame Camera Rotation Estimation in Crowded Scenes

We present an approach to estimating camera rotation in crowded, real-world scenes from handheld monocular video. While camera rotation estimation is a well-studied problem, no previous methods exhibit both high accuracy and acceptable speed in this setting. Because the setting is not addressed well by other datasets, we provide a new dataset and benchmark, with high-accuracy, rigorously verified ground truth, on 17 video sequences. Methods developed for wide baseline stereo (e.g., 5-point methods) perform poorly on monocular video. On the other hand, methods used in autonomous driving (e.g., SLAM) leverage specific sensor setups, specific motion models, or local optimization strategies (lagging batch processing) and do not generalize well to handheld video. Finally, for dynamic scenes, commonly used robustification techniques like RANSAC require large numbers of iterations, and become prohibitively slow. We introduce a novel generalization of the Hough transform on SO(3) to efficiently and robustly find the camera rotation most compatible with optical flow. Among comparably fast methods, ours reduces error by almost 50\% over the next best, and is more accurate than any method, irrespective of speed. This represents a strong new performance point for crowded scenes, an important setting for computer vision. The code and the dataset are available at https://fabiendelattre.com/robust-rotation-estimation.

Étude cognitive des processus de construction d'une requête dans un système de gestion de connaissances médicales

This article presents the Cogni-CISMeF project, which aims at improving medical information search in the CISMeF system (Catalog and Index of French-language health resources) by including a conversational agent to interact with the user in natural language. To study the cognitive processes involved during the information search, a bottom-up methodology was adopted. Experimentation has been set up to obtain human dialogs between a user (playing the role of patient) dealing with medical information search and a CISMeF expert refining the request. The analysis of these dialogs underlined the use of discursive evidence: vocabulary, reformulation, implicit or explicit expression of user intentions, conversational sequences, etc. A model of artificial agent is proposed. It leads the user in its information search by proposing to him examples, assistance and choices. This model was implemented and integrated in the CISMeF system. ---- Cet article d\'ecrit le projet Cogni-CISMeF qui propose un module de dialogue Homme-Machine \`a int\'egrer dans le syst\`eme d'indexation de connaissances m\'edicales CISMeF (Catalogue et Index des Sites M\'edicaux Francophones). Nous avons adopt\'e une d\'emarche de mod\'elisation cognitive en proc\'edant \`a un recueil de corpus de dialogues entre un utilisateur (jouant le r\^ole d'un patient) d\'esirant une information m\'edicale et un expert CISMeF af inant cette demande pour construire la requ\^ete. Nous avons analys\'e la structure des dialogues ainsi obtenus et avons \'etudi\'e un certain nombre d'indices discursifs : vocabulaire employ\'e, marques de reformulation, commentaires m\'eta et \'epilinguistiques, expression implicite ou explicite des intentions de l'utilisateur, encha\^inement conversationnel, etc. De cette analyse, nous avons construit un mod\`ele d'agent artificiel dot\'e de capacit\'es cognitives capables d'aider l'utilisateur dans sa t\^ache de recherche d'information. Ce mod\`ele a \'et\'e impl\'ement\'e et int\'egr\'e dans le syst\`eme CISMeF.

Multimodality-guided Image Style Transfer using Cross-modal GAN Inversion

Image Style Transfer (IST) is an interdisciplinary topic of computer vision and art that continuously attracts researchers' interests. Different from traditional Image-guided Image Style Transfer (IIST) methods that require a style reference image as input to define the desired style, recent works start to tackle the problem in a text-guided manner, i.e., Text-guided Image Style Transfer (TIST). Compared to IIST, such approaches provide more flexibility with text-specified styles, which are useful in scenarios where the style is hard to define with reference images. Unfortunately, many TIST approaches produce undesirable artifacts in the transferred images. To address this issue, we present a novel method to achieve much improved style transfer based on text guidance. Meanwhile, to offer more flexibility than IIST and TIST, our method allows style inputs from multiple sources and modalities, enabling MultiModality-guided Image Style Transfer (MMIST). Specifically, we realize MMIST with a novel cross-modal GAN inversion method, which generates style representations consistent with specified styles. Such style representations facilitate style transfer and in principle generalize any IIST methods to MMIST. Large-scale experiments and user studies demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on TIST task. Furthermore, comprehensive qualitative results confirm the effectiveness of our method on MMIST task and cross-modal style interpolation.

HelpSteer2-Preference: Complementing Ratings with Preferences

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

HelpSteer2: Open-source dataset for training top-performing reward models

High-quality preference datasets are essential for training reward models that can effectively guide large language models (LLMs) in generating high-quality responses aligned with human preferences. As LLMs become stronger and better aligned, permissively licensed preference datasets, such as Open Assistant, HH-RLHF, and HelpSteer need to be updated to remain effective for reward modeling. Methods that distil preference data from proprietary LLMs such as GPT-4 have restrictions on commercial usage imposed by model providers. To improve upon both generated responses and attribute labeling quality, we release HelpSteer2, a permissively licensed preference dataset (CC-BY-4.0). Using a powerful internal base model trained on HelpSteer2, we are able to achieve the SOTA score (92.0%) on Reward-Bench's primary dataset, outperforming currently listed open and proprietary models, as of June 12th, 2024. Notably, HelpSteer2 consists of only ten thousand response pairs, an order of magnitude fewer than existing preference datasets (e.g., HH-RLHF), which makes it highly efficient for training reward models. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that reward models trained with HelpSteer2 are effective in aligning LLMs. In particular, we propose SteerLM 2.0, a model alignment approach that can effectively make use of the rich multi-attribute score predicted by our reward models. HelpSteer2 is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and code is available at https://github.com/NVIDIA/NeMo-Aligner

A Domain-Agnostic Approach for Characterization of Lifelong Learning Systems

Despite the advancement of machine learning techniques in recent years, state-of-the-art systems lack robustness to "real world" events, where the input distributions and tasks encountered by the deployed systems will not be limited to the original training context, and systems will instead need to adapt to novel distributions and tasks while deployed. This critical gap may be addressed through the development of "Lifelong Learning" systems that are capable of 1) Continuous Learning, 2) Transfer and Adaptation, and 3) Scalability. Unfortunately, efforts to improve these capabilities are typically treated as distinct areas of research that are assessed independently, without regard to the impact of each separate capability on other aspects of the system. We instead propose a holistic approach, using a suite of metrics and an evaluation framework to assess Lifelong Learning in a principled way that is agnostic to specific domains or system techniques. Through five case studies, we show that this suite of metrics can inform the development of varied and complex Lifelong Learning systems. We highlight how the proposed suite of metrics quantifies performance trade-offs present during Lifelong Learning system development - both the widely discussed Stability-Plasticity dilemma and the newly proposed relationship between Sample Efficient and Robust Learning. Further, we make recommendations for the formulation and use of metrics to guide the continuing development of Lifelong Learning systems and assess their progress in the future.

AILuminate: Introducing v1.0 of the AI Risk and Reliability Benchmark from MLCommons

The rapid advancement and deployment of AI systems have created an urgent need for standard safety-evaluation frameworks. This paper introduces AILuminate v1.0, the first comprehensive industry-standard benchmark for assessing AI-product risk and reliability. Its development employed an open process that included participants from multiple fields. The benchmark evaluates an AI system's resistance to prompts designed to elicit dangerous, illegal, or undesirable behavior in 12 hazard categories, including violent crimes, nonviolent crimes, sex-related crimes, child sexual exploitation, indiscriminate weapons, suicide and self-harm, intellectual property, privacy, defamation, hate, sexual content, and specialized advice (election, financial, health, legal). Our method incorporates a complete assessment standard, extensive prompt datasets, a novel evaluation framework, a grading and reporting system, and the technical as well as organizational infrastructure for long-term support and evolution. In particular, the benchmark employs an understandable five-tier grading scale (Poor to Excellent) and incorporates an innovative entropy-based system-response evaluation. In addition to unveiling the benchmark, this report also identifies limitations of our method and of building safety benchmarks generally, including evaluator uncertainty and the constraints of single-turn interactions. This work represents a crucial step toward establishing global standards for AI risk and reliability evaluation while acknowledging the need for continued development in areas such as multiturn interactions, multimodal understanding, coverage of additional languages, and emerging hazard categories. Our findings provide valuable insights for model developers, system integrators, and policymakers working to promote safer AI deployment.

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Planck 2018 results. V. CMB power spectra and likelihoods

This paper describes the 2018 Planck CMB likelihoods, following a hybrid approach similar to the 2015 one, with different approximations at low and high multipoles, and implementing several methodological and analysis refinements. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematics, we can now make full use of the High Frequency Instrument polarization data. The low-multipole 100x143 GHz EE cross-spectrum constrains the reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with with the other low- and high-ell likelihoods). We also update the 2015 baseline low-ell joint TEB likelihood based on the Low Frequency Instrument data, which provides a weaker tau constraint. At high multipoles, a better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (polarization efficiency or PE) allow us to fully use the polarization spectra, improving the constraints on the LambdaCDM parameters by 20 to 30% compared to TT-only constraints. Tests on the modelling of the polarization demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties, the accuracy of the PE modelling being the main limitation. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-ell implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5sigma level. Minor curiosities already present before (differences between ell<800 and ell>800 parameters or the preference for more smoothing of the C_ell peaks) are shown to be driven by the TT power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of polarization. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations. (Abridged)

Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV: Mapping the Milky Way, Nearby Galaxies, and the Distant Universe

We describe the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV), a project encompassing three major spectroscopic programs. The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is observing hundreds of thousands of Milky Way stars at high resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio in the near-infrared. The Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey is obtaining spatially-resolved spectroscopy for thousands of nearby galaxies (median redshift of z = 0.03). The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) is mapping the galaxy, quasar, and neutral gas distributions between redshifts z = 0.6 and 3.5 to constrain cosmology using baryon acoustic oscillations, redshift space distortions, and the shape of the power spectrum. Within eBOSS, we are conducting two major subprograms: the SPectroscopic IDentification of eROSITA Sources (SPIDERS), investigating X-ray AGN and galaxies in X-ray clusters, and the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS), obtaining spectra of variable sources. All programs use the 2.5-meter Sloan Foundation Telescope at Apache Point Observatory; observations there began in Summer 2014. APOGEE-2 also operates a second near-infrared spectrograph at the 2.5-meter du Pont Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, with observations beginning in early 2017. Observations at both facilities are scheduled to continue through 2020. In keeping with previous SDSS policy, SDSS-IV provides regularly scheduled public data releases; the first one, Data Release 13, was made available in July 2016.

A Robust Ensemble Algorithm for Ischemic Stroke Lesion Segmentation: Generalizability and Clinical Utility Beyond the ISLES Challenge

Diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) is essential for stroke diagnosis, treatment decisions, and prognosis. However, image and disease variability hinder the development of generalizable AI algorithms with clinical value. We address this gap by presenting a novel ensemble algorithm derived from the 2022 Ischemic Stroke Lesion Segmentation (ISLES) challenge. ISLES'22 provided 400 patient scans with ischemic stroke from various medical centers, facilitating the development of a wide range of cutting-edge segmentation algorithms by the research community. Through collaboration with leading teams, we combined top-performing algorithms into an ensemble model that overcomes the limitations of individual solutions. Our ensemble model achieved superior ischemic lesion detection and segmentation accuracy on our internal test set compared to individual algorithms. This accuracy generalized well across diverse image and disease variables. Furthermore, the model excelled in extracting clinical biomarkers. Notably, in a Turing-like test, neuroradiologists consistently preferred the algorithm's segmentations over manual expert efforts, highlighting increased comprehensiveness and precision. Validation using a real-world external dataset (N=1686) confirmed the model's generalizability. The algorithm's outputs also demonstrated strong correlations with clinical scores (admission NIHSS and 90-day mRS) on par with or exceeding expert-derived results, underlining its clinical relevance. This study offers two key findings. First, we present an ensemble algorithm (https://github.com/Tabrisrei/ISLES22_Ensemble) that detects and segments ischemic stroke lesions on DWI across diverse scenarios on par with expert (neuro)radiologists. Second, we show the potential for biomedical challenge outputs to extend beyond the challenge's initial objectives, demonstrating their real-world clinical applicability.

ColBERT: Efficient and Effective Passage Search via Contextualized Late Interaction over BERT

Recent progress in Natural Language Understanding (NLU) is driving fast-paced advances in Information Retrieval (IR), largely owed to fine-tuning deep language models (LMs) for document ranking. While remarkably effective, the ranking models based on these LMs increase computational cost by orders of magnitude over prior approaches, particularly as they must feed each query-document pair through a massive neural network to compute a single relevance score. To tackle this, we present ColBERT, a novel ranking model that adapts deep LMs (in particular, BERT) for efficient retrieval. ColBERT introduces a late interaction architecture that independently encodes the query and the document using BERT and then employs a cheap yet powerful interaction step that models their fine-grained similarity. By delaying and yet retaining this fine-granular interaction, ColBERT can leverage the expressiveness of deep LMs while simultaneously gaining the ability to pre-compute document representations offline, considerably speeding up query processing. Beyond reducing the cost of re-ranking the documents retrieved by a traditional model, ColBERT's pruning-friendly interaction mechanism enables leveraging vector-similarity indexes for end-to-end retrieval directly from a large document collection. We extensively evaluate ColBERT using two recent passage search datasets. Results show that ColBERT's effectiveness is competitive with existing BERT-based models (and outperforms every non-BERT baseline), while executing two orders-of-magnitude faster and requiring four orders-of-magnitude fewer FLOPs per query.

Forecasting Patient Demand at Urgent Care Clinics using Machine Learning

Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous research into forecasting demand this domain has mostly used a collection of statistical techniques, with machine learning approaches only now beginning to emerge in recent literature. The forecasting problem for this domain is difficult and has also been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has introduced an additional complexity to this estimation due to typical demand patterns being disrupted. This study explores the ability of machine learning methods to generate accurate patient presentations at two large urgent care clinics located in Auckland, New Zealand. A number of machine learning algorithms were explored in order to determine the most effective technique for this problem domain, with the task of making forecasts of daily patient demand three months in advance. The study also performed an in-depth analysis into the model behaviour in respect to the exploration of which features are most effective at predicting demand and which features are capable of adaptation to the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The results showed that ensemble-based methods delivered the most accurate and consistent solutions on average, generating improvements in the range of 23%-27% over the existing in-house methods for estimating the daily demand.