North Texas (-5.5) vs. Temple (135.5)

North Texas Injuries: Johnathan Massie
Temple Injuries: Jamal Mashburn, Shane Dezonie

Notes:

1. This is a rematch from January 22nd. North Texas took the first game 76-67 at home despite shooting 25% from three. They out-rebounded Temple 38-35, but they shot 34 free throws on 22 Temple fouls. Temple played without Elijah Gray.

2. North Texas locks up #2 with a win. They are 2-4 against the top 100 with wins over #89 Minnesota & #80 Oregon State. They only have 2 losses outside the top 100 (#191 UTSA & #107 UAB).

3. Temple is 1-5 against the top 100 with a win over #48 Memphis at home. They have 10 losses outside the top 100 and 3 losses outside the top 200 (#239 La Salle, #287 Tulsa, & #260 Charlotte). Jamal Mashburn hasn’t played in 5 games and will allegedly sit out until the conference tournament. Dezonie missed with an illness, but Temple did return Quante Berry & Steve Settle recently, so they’re healthier than they’ve been.

4. North Texas outranks Temple 111-138 in Effective Height. However, that number extends to 33-172 in Rebounding. Temple is particularly bad defensively, where they rank 278th on the glass.

5. North Texas is 97th in Effective FG%, 173rd in 2pt%, & 44th in 3pt%. Temple’s defense is 272nd overall, so matchups don’t really matter. Temple is 180th in interior defense & 171st in 3pt defense. Atin Wright has been lethal from three, shooting 42%.

6. Temple is 230th in Effective FG%, 291st in 2pt%, & 70th in 3pt%. Interestingly, they only rank 339th in 3pt rate. They’ve also been without their most efficient offensive weapon Jamal Mashburn for a few weeks. He shoots 42% from three. They did recently get back 42% shooter Steve Settle, which helps a bit.

7. North Texas is 42nd in total defense, 54th on the interior, & 15th in perimeter defense. This is a particularly poor matchup for a team without many paths outside of shooting more three pointers.

8. Teams can sometimes beat North Texas via turnovers. North Texas is 197th in turnovers committed. However, Temple forces turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the conference. They rank 300th in turnovers forced.

9. Temple is 33rd in fouls generated, while North Texas is 226th in fouls committed.

Model Prediction
North Texas - 71.1
Temple - 65.7

Play: North Texas -5.0