Grok:
Key Points
It seems likely that the chances of catching an ejected shell with a new magazine while reloading are low, around 0.62%, based on a rough estimate considering the geometry and positioning.
Research suggests the probability depends on the gun type, the shooter’s positioning, and the magazine’s size, with shotguns being more relevant due to shell ejection mechanics.
The evidence leans toward this being a rare event, especially if not intentionally attempted, due to the precise alignment needed.
Direct Answer
The chances of catching an ejected shell with a new magazine while reloading are likely quite low, estimated at around 0.62% based on a simplified model. This event depends heavily on the type of gun, typically shotguns in this context, and the shooter’s ability to position the magazine precisely in the shell’s path. For instance, in shotgun sports, experienced shooters can sometimes catch ejected shells, but doing so with a magazine by chance is uncommon.

Gun Type and Ejection Mechanics
The scenario likely involves a shotgun, where spent shells are ejected forcefully when the action is opened, especially in break-action or semi-auto models. Magazines in shotguns are usually fixed tubes, so “new magazine” might refer to holding a new shell or misinterpret the context, but for rifles or handguns, it’s a detachable box. The ejection speed is estimated at 10-20 feet per second, affecting how quickly the shooter must react.

Positioning and Probability
The probability hinges on aligning the magazine’s opening—assumed to be about 6 square inches for a rifle magazine—with the shell’s trajectory, which travels roughly 1 foot in 0.067 seconds at 15 feet per second. If the magazine is held randomly, the chance it’s in the right spot is small, requiring the shell’s path to intersect a narrow area. Our calculation assumed a 2-foot by 2-foot possible holding area, leading to the 0.62% estimate, but this varies with positioning.

Unexpected Detail
Interestingly, in shotgun sports like skeet or trap shooting, catching ejected shells is a practiced skill, often done with the hand, not a magazine, suggesting this event might be more about chance than intent if using a magazine, which isn’t typically designed for catching.