IMO Iran won’t get nukes and a deal will be reached here’s why: 

Iran’s January 2025 defense treaty with Russia bolsters its air defenses, diminishing the urgency for nuclear weapons to deter Israel.

The pact brings Russian S-400 systems, TOR-M1 upgrades, and joint drone tech, enhancing Iran’s radar network—2 hardened command posts, 18,000 personnel since 1996, now modernized with Rezonans-N and Ghadir systems.

Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile (274 kg, IAEA Feb ’25) feels less critical with S-400s guarding Tehran.

Russia pushes for Middle East stability to secure the North-South Corridor, a $1.5T trade lifeline, ensuring Iran’s defenses keep regional tension low for cargo flows.

This isn’t disarmament, it’s strategy—Iran leans on Russian muscle, not nukes, while Russia guards its economic stake in calm, not chaos.