I’d bet that if Trump plays it smart—keeps the EU tariff as a threat, and they cave, like Canada and Mexico did after stalling on his 2025 tariff talk—he’ll come out on top. He’s got a decent track record: Mexico turned NAFTA into USMCA under pressure, and the EU gave ground on steel. It’s all a big poker bluff, and he’s banking on them folding before he has to show his cards.