65317052_ation_for_Atmospheric_Research__1
[0] Behind the research [2] Rather than analyzing a particular event with a global climate model, this approach combines long-term global and local observations with long-established rules of physics that explain how temperature and water vapor respond to greenhouse gases. [3] Global climate models are employed to test the presence of a human influence on a particular process and then to extrapolate that result to extreme events, thus estimating their frequency. Although the results can be complex to interpret and communicate, this technique is becoming the most widely used way to quantify the odds that climate change is altering high-profile disasters. [1] 
This approach comes at the problem from a forecaster’s point of view: what can the past tell us about today’s weather? In this view, if natural variability can largely explain a recent extreme event, and if recent climate patterns are not trending toward such an event, then climate change may not have played a significant role in creating that extreme (though in some cases, the chance of an influence will grow in the coming decades).
Extreme weather forensics | UCAR - University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
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