69cf3305_bstracts___IEEE_GreenTech_2013__Category____Sub_Category
[Paper Title, Abstract] Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies Show AbstractHide Abstract Load forecasting at the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process, or suitable reserves. An understanding of the load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves that are necessary to compensate the errors that occur. In this work we perform a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two different independent system operators for a one year period. Comparisons are made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identifies time periods when the load is more likely to under- or over-forecast. [Schedule] FTM-GWSB [Category :: Sub-Category] 
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Abstracts « IEEE GreenTech 2013
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