if we know not just , but the earlier values as well, then we can determine which coins have been drawn, and we know that the next coin will not be a nickel; so we can determine that  with probability 1. but if we do not know the earlier values, then based only on the value  we might guess that we had drawn four dimes and two nickels, in which case it would certainly be possible to draw another nickel next. then i know, 'oh, this is what it's like to be over here, looking at the stage.'" 