7% over inflation per year) is quite reliable over time – big downs are almost always immediately followed by big ups.
– first was 1974 with a loss of 27%. it was followed by a 38% gain in 1975 and a 24% gain in 1976.
– second was 2002 with a loss of 22%. it was followed by a 29% gain in 2003.
– third was 2008 with a loss of 37%. it was followed by a 27% gain in 2003.
in short, assuming a large gain right after a large loss is a good bet – and possibly the only easy market timing move we all can make (other than the discipline of 