There is a better than even chance that Mary moved to the garden. It is improbable that Julius is a swan. It is impossible that Winona is a wolf. It is likely that if Julius is a swan, and Mary moved to the garden, then Bill is in the school. It is likely that if Julius is a swan, or Winona is a wolf, then Bernhard is a lion. It is highly unlikely that if Julius is a swan, and Mary moved to the garden, then Greg is a swan.
Chances are slight that bernhard is a lion, or Mary moved to the garden.
This example is invalid.