We doubt that John moved to the garden. There is little chance that Julius is white. There is a better than even chance that Mary went to the bedroom. There is a very good chance that if Mary went to the bedroom, and Julius is white, then Brian is a rhino. It is probably the case that if either Mary went to the bedroom, or Julius is white, then Lily is a frog. There is almost no chance that if Mary went to the bedroom, and Julius is white, then Antoine is thirsty.
There is almost no chance that john moved to the garden, and Julius is white.
This example is invalid.