A separate source from another of the eurozone’s larger economies said that even countries that have so far been relatively immune to the rise of anti-euro parties, such as Spain and Germany, could be affected by contagion. An Italian official suggested that in the immediate term the loudest voices for referendums are likely to come from secessionist movements in Scotland and Catalonia. Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, has already made clear that Scotland could hold a second independence referendum if the rest of the UK votes to leave the EU. More recently, Heinz-Christian Strache, leader of the right-wing Freedom Party of Austria, said South Tyrol, a region annexed by Italy in 1918, should be granted the right to decide whether it wants to remain an autonomous Italian region or become a part of Austria. Strache's party has a strong chance of winning Austria's presidency in a run-off vote in two weeks time. Although the risk and fear of contagion is real and shared across Europe, views on the longer-term impact on both the UK and the EU are less unanimous. The more pessimistic end of the spectrum includes former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, who, in an interview last month, told BuzzFeed News: “Brexit would speed up the disintegration of Europe, this would create a black hole, and Britain would be sucked in even if it voted to leave.” French and Italian officials have a more optimistic view. Officials from both nations share the belief that with or without the UK, Europe’s bigger issue will be setting a vision and future path for the EU on multiple levels from common policies to greater eurozone integration. “The key is a vision for the future of EU integration," one official said. Contagion won’t ultimately change the European project, and it can be contained, they said, adding that several countries have opt-outs on specific issues and others’ concerns would ultimately remain the same with or without the UK. The source also predicted that market turbulence caused by a British exit, and the turmoil that would follow in the UK, would put many voters elsewhere off the idea of leaving the EU. “The core EU group would have to move forward." However, northern European countries are more likely to find life without the UK less comfortable, as the balance of power would shift south, possibly impacting on EU policies on competitiveness, market regulation, and free trade. German chancellor Angela Merkel has cited Britain's view on these issues when making the case for the UK's continued membership. "Chancellor Merkel has repeatedly underlined the importance of Great Britain’s membership in the EU," a spokesperson for the German government told BuzzFeed News. Or as one Danish official put it: “A Brexit would put us in an extremely difficult situation."
EU governments fear that the Brexit vote would lead to a referendum contagion across the continent and that far - right parties might use it to express anti - EU sentiments threatening the accession agreement , the euro and EU membership itself . According to a recent Ipsos Mori poll , 55 % of the electorate in France and 58 % in Italy would like to take the issue of EU membership to a vote , with more than half the respondents believing Brexit would have a ' domino effect . ' As the Vote Leave campaign gained momentum and the probability of victory higher than Downing Street hoped , governments are starting to look for the possibility of Brexit and how they would engage with the UK .