Coal and emissions stall as renewables rise The Pitt & Sherry and Australia Institute CEDEX report now incorporates estimates of rooftop solar PV generation data utilising information historically from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the Australian Photovoltaic Institute going forward. Figure 1 below gives us the overall helicopter view for electricity generation by fuel, now incorporating rooftop solar. Figure 1 [[{"fid":"134796","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"348","width":"938","class":"media-element file-media-original"}}]] If we zoom in to explore changes over time (using 2008 as our benchmark), total electricity generation in the year to September 2015 continued the steady growth of the past few months, but emissions were virtually unchanged (Figure 2). Figure 2 [[{"fid":"134801","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"361","width":"939","class":"media-element file-media-original"}}]] As was the case in August, the total coal share was also virtually unchanged, with a small increase in black coal generation offset by a small decrease in the higher emissions brown coal generation (Figure 3). The total coal share of generation (excluding rooftop solar) in the year to September 2015 was 75.6%. The gas share fell, but only slightly, wind was almost unchanged and the hydro share increased slightly as both Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro continued to gradually increase output back towards long term average levels. Figure 3 [[{"fid":"134806","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"294","width":"938","class":"media-element file-media-original"}}]] Figure 4 [[{"fid":"134811","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"382","width":"1180","class":"media-element file-media-original"}}]] Total demand again increased (See figure 4 above), driven entirely by the growth in Queensland (Figure 5), caused by the use of electricity in the production and pipeline transport of coal seam gas to the LNG plants at Gladstone. Demand in NSW was unchanged from August, while small increases were seen in Victoria, SA and Tasmania, again continuing the trend of the past few months. The gradual decline in WA continued. Figure 5 [[{"fid":"134821","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"323","width":"939","class":"media-element file-media-original"}}]] The small increases in Victoria, SA and Tasmania may be attributable to the slightly colder winter in 2015, compared with 2014, in these three states. The monthly weather reviews published by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that average daily minimum temperatures were markedly lower in June and July 2015, compared with the same months in 2014, though August 2015 had slightly higher average minima than August 2014. This effect can be seen in Figure 6, which is unchanged from corresponding graph from last month’s CEDEX®, except that winter 2015 in WA has now been included. Note that in Victoria the higher demand from general consumers is masked by the large decrease caused by the Point Henry aluminium smelter closure. WA did not have a colder winter in 2015 than in 2014 and total winter demand was lower in 2015 than in 2014. Overall, the picture of demand a few months ago was that it might be rebounding after several years of falling demand. Now, for the year to September 2015, it appears as if demand may in fact just be a levelling out in the NEM (excluding the large new demand from the Queensland coal seam gas industry) and starting a possible longer term fall in WA. Such a trend would imply a continuing decrease in demand for electricity per capita and per dollar of GDP, though at a smaller rate than seen over the past few years. Figure 6 [[{"fid":"134826","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"366","width":"940","class":"media-element file-media-original"}}]] Dr Hugh Saddler is a Principal Consultant in Energy Strategies with engineering consultancy Pitt & Sherry. Data analysis, text and graphs produced with the assistance of Elena Tinch and Mark Johnston.
A new report by the Pitt & Sherry and fid":"134806","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"294","width":"938","class":"media Institute CEDEX, now incorporates rooftop solar PV generation data from the fid":"134806","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"294","width":"938","class":"median Energy Market Operator and the fid":"134806","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"294","width":"938","class":"median Photovoltaic Institute. The report shows various graphs which include the total electricity generation in fid":"134806","view_mode":"media_original","fields":{"format":"media_original","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":"","field_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_summary[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","link_text":null,"attributes":{"height":"294","width":"938","class":"media by fuel type, as well as changes in demand across the nation and from each state over the past seven years. The data also shows that electricity generated from black coal and carbon emission levels have been in decline since the summer of 2009, with only a small rise in both over the last year. Electricity generation from﻿ natural gas, rooftop solar, hydro, wind power and other renewables have﻿ risen over this period.