By Diego FlamminiStaff WriterFarms.com American farmers are on pace to have their highest year for export value since 2014, a new USDA forecast says. The U.S. ag industry is projected to export US$144.5 billion worth of goods in 2019, the Aug. 29 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade says. That figure is up from US$142 billion in the USDA’s May report. With the soybean market caught in a trade dispute with China, wheat farmers may contribute significantly to the higher U.S. ag exports. “Wheat exports are forecast up (US)$1.4 billion from the previous year to (US)$7.1 billion as a result of higher volumes and reduced competition,” the report says. China, which was one of America’s largest ag customers, could purchase fewer products going forward. Ag trade with China could drop by US$7 billion, the USDA says. If current trends continue, China could fall out of the U.S.’s top three ag export destinations. “Canada is expected to be the largest U.S. market (in 2019), while China drops to fifth place behind Mexico, the EU and Japan,” the report says. While ag exports are projected to be on the rise, the U.S. is also importing more farm products from its trading partners. The USDA expected about US$121.5 billion worth of ag imports to come into the country this year, the agency reported in May. That number has increased to US$126.5 billion for 2019. “Horticultural product imports are expected to reach a new record of (US)$61.7 billion in fiscal year 2019, (US)1.4 billion above fiscal year 2014 forecasts,” the USDA says. The combined 2019 import and export values give the U.S. an ag trade surplus of US$18 billion, down from US$21 billion in the USDA’s May ag outlook.
The USDA has revised up its forecast for US agricultural exports in FY2019 by $500m to $144.5bn, due to increased wheat and horticultural product exports, despite anticipated export declines in soyabeans, livestock and dairy products. It also increased its forecast for wheat export this year by $1.4bn to $7.1bn, due to higher volumes and reduced competition. As a result of the trade dispute, exports to China are expected to drop by $7bn, due to the loss in soyabean sales, making Canada the largest export market, while China drops to fifth place. Meanwhile, imports are forecast to grow $124.5bn to $3bn.