Up to 87,000 jobs in London are at risk if Theresa May walks away from the European Union without a deal, it was claimed today. The capital’s professional and financial services would be worst hit with 29,000 fewer jobs by 2030 if the UK crashes out of the EU. There would also be 11,000 fewer jobs in science and technology, 5,000 in construction and 6,000 across London’s creative sector than if the UK stayed in. Sadiq Khan issued a stark warning that the capital could be heading for a “lost decade” of lower growth and employment. Just over 480,000 jobs could disappear nationwide by 2030, along with £50 billion foreign investment, in the event of a hard Brexit with no transition. Even with a two-year transition period, moving onto World Trade Organisation rules could mean 470,000 fewer jobs. The bleak economic picture emerged in Brexit impact papers commissioned by the Mayor in response to the Government’s failure to produce its own. Brexit Secretary David Davis was heavily criticised after a long delay in publishing impact study documents he then said had key information stripped out of them. He later admitted the Government had not produced the detailed papers as previously claimed. Chancellor Philip Hammond then came under pressure to publish another set of hidden documents on how a series of possible Brexit outcomes, including no deal, would impact on the economy. Last night it was reported that even senior ministers had not seen the taxpayer-funded analysis. The Mayor said it was “astonishing” that ministers had failed to publish any proper impact assessments on what Brexit could mean for the British economy. “Their complete lack of preparation is irresponsible and shows that they are putting party politics ahead of the national interest,” he said. The studies for the Mayor, by independent experts Cambridge Econometrics, model five different scenarios, ranging from the UK staying in the single market and customs union – more or less the status quo - to a hard Brexit with no transition period. They cover nine key sectors of the economy including financial services and the creative industries. The findings, revealed by the Standard, show that every outcome would be bad for the British economy, but that the harder the Brexit, the more severe the economic damage could be. City Hall aides said that “the one silver lining” for London was that it would bounce back quicker economically from Brexit than other parts of the country. However, that raised the prospect of a further widening of geographic inequality across the UK. Economic output nationwide could be at least 3 per cent - or £55 billion - lower by 2030 than if Britain remained in the single market and customs union, the study found. But in London output would be just 2 per cent lower. UK-wide there could be 119,000 fewer jobs in financial and professional services, 92,000 in science and technology, 43,000 in construction and 27,000 across the creative sector. Mr Khan, who has called on ministers to push for continued British membership of the single market and customs union, said: “If the Government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment. “The harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards. Ministers are fast running out of time to turn the negotiations around. “Their sheer incompetence in handling the negotiations means that a no deal hard Brexit is still a very real risk – the worst possible scenario.” Even the so-called Norway option - the UK remaining in the single market but leaving the customs union after a transition period could result in 176,000 fewer jobs - 31,000 of them in London - as well as an £18.6 billion drop in output and £20 billion fall in investment. The EU has said it wants the final deal, including full details of any transitional deal and the outline of a future trading relationship, agreed by this October to give time to ratify the agreement. Ben Gardiner from Cambridge Econometrics said: “Our analysis is particularly valuable to local leaders because it indicates the potential impact on employment and output of Brexit under a range of scenarios, which is necessary given the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of negotiations.” City of London chief Catherine McGuinness said the figures painted “a worrying picture” for the capital while Jasmine Whitbread, boss of business group London First, urged ministers to “stop its internal politicking” and set out a coherent plan for trade with the EU. A spokesman for the Department for Exiting the EU said: "The fact is we are working to secure the best and most ambitious Brexit deal for the whole of the United Kingdom. "December's European Council showed that, having made sufficient progress, both sides believe we will achieve an ambitious deal securing prosperity for the UK and E27. "We have made good progress, having reached an agreement with the EU on some very difficult issues such as citizens rights and the financial settlement, and we are looking forward to starting the next round of negotiations. "The UK wants a deep and special partnership with the European Union, a partnership that spans a new economic relationship and a new relationship on security." However, the analysis also showed that jobless Londoners could benefit from Brexit as restrictions on immigration could reduce the number of overseas workers available to employers. It read: “London residents who were unemployed or inactive may be employed following migration restrictions because there is less competition for jobs.”
A possible 480,000 jobs could be lost in sectors including finance and construction across the UK, with 87,000 disappearing in London alone, if the UK exits the European Union under a "no deal" scenario, according to impact papers commissioned by Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London. The report also warns that up to 200,000 more people will lose their jobs, while another 100,000 would have no work at all after Brexit. the remain outcome proving detrimental to the UK economy. The paper also revealed London would bounce back more quickly than the rest of the country, but said it could deepen the so-called north-south divide.