The chief US economist at Deutsche Bank , mark LaVorgna , has warned the decline of corporate profits for the fifth consecutive quarter due to an imminent recession and that the margin decline is " no longer just due to the well - advertised weakness in the domestic and export sectors . " He notes that in every business cycle since World War II , a profit margin decline precedes a recession , and the current business cycle is already the " fourth longest " in the post - WWII​ cycle . In addition , productivity growth has been " abysmal " and the corporate debt - to - GDP ratio suggests that " imbalances are building . "
The chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, Joe LaVorgna, has warned the decline of corporate profits for the fifth consecutive quarter points to an imminent recession and that the margin decline is "no longer just due to the well-advertised weakness in the energy and export sectors." He notes that in every business cycle since World War II, a profit margin decline precedes a recession, and the current business cycle is already the "fourth longest" in the post-WWII​ period. In addition, productivity growth has been "abysmal" and the corporate debt-to-GDP ratio implies that "imbalances are building."