A report by senior economist Andrew Duguay in CNBC today says the black swan in the economy will be the " weak consumer " . He argues that over the last two quarters , consumers have propped up the economy , so today 's retail figures will be of huge significance in revealing how weak the consumer will be in the second quarter , since it is the first crucial step on the road to either recession or economic recovery . If the figures are below expectations , this will require a massive increase over the next couple of quarters in order to move in the direction of economic acceleration in the third quarter ; if on the other hand the numbers are good , he believes this will be the first good sign consumers , and the economy , are making a comeback . However , he adds that given the recent jobs report showing stagnant wage growth , the retail numbers will not be encouraging , citing that wages , inflation and consumer sentiment are the key drivers that impact consumers and the economy .
A report by senior economist Andrew Duguay in CNBC today says the black swan in the economy will be the "weak consumer". He argues that over the last two quarters, consumers have propped up the economy, so today's retail figures will be of huge significance in revealing how weak the consumer will be in the second quarter, since it is the first crucial step on the road to either recession or economic recovery. If the figures are below expectations, this will require a massive rebound over the next couple of months in order to move in the direction of economic acceleration in the third quarter; if on the other hand the numbers are good, he predicts this will be the first good sign consumers, and the economy, are making a comeback. However, he adds that given the recent jobs report showing stagnant wage growth, the retail numbers may not be encouraging, citing that wages, inflation and consumer sentiment are the key drivers that impact consumers and the economy.