( CNN ) It should n't come as a surprise that Yemen has collapsed -- again . A country that has split and been pulled together before , has the youngest and fastest growing population in the region , is running low on oil and water , and possesses a `` personalist '' government rather than stable institutions , was on the top of every expert 's list as the fragile state most likely to fail next . What is surprising is that U.S. policy ignored all of this and proceeded on the premise that simply drone-bombing al Qaeda terrorists could keep Yemen intact and stable . Indeed , last fall , when President Barack Obama pointed to U.S. policy in Yemen as an example of a `` success '' and a model for the plans that would roll back the Islamic State ( also known as ISIS ) , I shivered . For as September ended , Shi'ite Houthi rebels from the north moved south and took the capital city , Sanaa . By January , the Islamic State was noticeably increasing its recruitment in Yemen , and that same month the Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula claimed responsibility for organizing the deadly Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris . Last week , the Islamic State bombed two Shi'ite mosques in Yemen , killing more than 130 worshippers at prayer . This week , the Houthi forces are closing in on Yemen 's second major city , Aden , on the south coast , and the U.S.-supported President , Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi , has reportedly fled the country . As the United States has closed its embassy and withdrawn its last troops , Yemen has slid into total chaos , with rebels and jihadists on both sides capturing military bases and seizing tanks and heavy weapons . The situation is so dire that a coalition of Sunni nations , led by Saudi Arabia , has launched massive airstrikes against the Houthis , with a Saudi adviser threatening to bring up to 150,000 ground troops into Yemen to restore the Hadi regime . Yemen does have value as a lesson -- this is what happens when you ignore the basic foundations of social stability . These include legitimate leadership with stable succession plans ; a united elite ; institutions to bridge regional and ethnic divisions and assure fairness in political and economic access and a functioning economy with capabilities for providing employment and growth . Rather than working to secure these things , the U.S. administration has succumbed to the illusion that precision bombing or other surgical interventions to remove `` dangerous elements '' will sustain broader social and political stability . Anyone could see that the conditions for collapse were progressing in Yemen and that aerial attacks on al Qaeda terrorists would have no effect on them . Those attacks were a sideshow -- like firing a lousy band performing on the deck of an ocean liner , while a hull full of holes is taking on water fast . What we have now is an area with about 24 million people , more than twice the population now under the rule of the Islamic State in eastern Syria and western Iraq , that is virtually ungoverned and up for grabs and is falling into the grips of an all-out civil war between Iran-supported Shi'as and al Qaeda/ISIS-aligned Sunnis . It is a war that the West loses no matter who wins . It is now too late to do much of anything except watch and try to either support any moderate elements if they should emerge as capable of holding regional or national power , or contain any dangerous jihadist elements if they should do so . Either task will be difficult , and provide yet another costly distraction to efforts to restore peace in Syria and Iraq . In other words , what has happened in Yemen , although predictable , is about the worst outcome imaginable for U.S. policy . That America ever deluded itself into thinking airstrikes were enough to deal with the problems of failing states in the Middle East and North Africa -- and the crisis of ISIS -- is a notion that could only be made more frightening if it keeps on doing it .
about 24 million : U.S. policy of drone-bombing al Qaeda terrorists ignores need to build social stability . He says country now in chaos , virtually ungoverned and vulnerable to jihadist elements .