SEPT. 6, 2018 — The year 2030 marks an important demographic turning point in U.S. history according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections. By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. This will expand the size of the older population so that 1 in every 5 residents will be retirement age. “The aging of baby boomers means that within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau. “By 2034 (previously 2035), there will be 77.0 million (previously 78.0) people 65 years and older compared to 76.5 million (previously 76.7 million) under the age of 18." The 2030s are projected to be a transformative decade for the U.S. population. The population is expected to grow at a slower pace, age considerably and become more racially and ethnically diverse. Net international migration is projected to overtake natural increase in 2030 as the primary driver of population growth in the United States, another demographic first for the United States. Although births are projected to be nearly four times larger than the level of net international migration in coming decades, a rising number of deaths will increasingly offset how much births are able to contribute to population growth. Between 2020 and 2050, the number of deaths is projected to rise substantially as the population ages and a significant share of the population, the baby boomers, age into older adulthood. As a result, the population will naturally grow very slowly, leaving net international migration to overtake natural increase as the leading cause of population growth, even as projected levels of migration remain relatively constant. Other highlights:
According to a new report issued by the U.S. Census Bureau , by 2035 there will be more people aged over 65 than there will be under the age of 18 for the first time. The 2017 National Population Projections reveals that in 2035 there will be an expected 404 million people over 65 , as opposed to 76.4 million individuals the age of 18 . The report reveals a range of statistics concerning the demographic future of the the United States , with all baby boomers becoming at least 65 by 2030; the result of this change will see one fifth of US residents reaching retirement age. Furthermore, the 2030s will see the population grow at a slower rate, become more diverse and age significantly. An illustration of that is the expected shift of the ratio between older adults and working-age adults, known as the dependency ratio. By 2020 the dependency ratio will see around three-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age individual but, by 2060 , this could shift to just two -and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. There will also be a significant demographic change as international migration is set to overtake natural increase as the main driver of population growth in the US for the first time. Accompanying this will be an increase in the US death rate as the baby boomer generation ages which will offset the expected quadrupling of the birth rate. By 2060 , the US population is expected to reach 404 million people, with the average age growing from 76.4 million alongside an increased life expectancy.