Under this scenario, the UK would not be party to the EU’s trade deals with the rest of the world but would be obliged to make a financial contribution to Brussels, accept most European laws and continue with free movement. The Institute found this would result in Scottish GDP being between two per cent and three per cent lower after a decade, with job numbers 30,000 lower than they would otherwise have been. The report also examined the “Switzerland model”, under which the UK would have membership of the European Free Trade Association but not the EEA. There would be no “general duty” to apply EU law but free movement would again continue. The analysis found Scottish GDP would be between £4 billion and £6 billion lower than it otherwise would have been, with real wages between £1,200 and £1,600 lower and employment falling by between one per cent and two per cent. Joan McAlpine, the SNP convener of the committee, said maintaining access to the single market is vital and the report indicates a ‘hard’ Brexit could have “disastrous consequences for jobs, exports and production.” But a UK Government spokesman said: "As the Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Scotland have said, the UK Government will seek a bespoke deal that will bring new opportunities.
Around 80,000 jobs in Scotland could be lost if the government decides on a “hard” Brexit, according to research from Strathclyde University’s Fraser of Allander Institute. The analysis found that both “soft” and “hard” Brexit options will have a negative economic impact, but that Scotland will be less affected than the rest of the UK, suffering a 2-5% GDP drop after a decade. A hard Brexit would see Scotland’s economy shrink by around £1bn per year – equivalent to about 1% of national output – while leaving it with an unemployment rate higher than the UK average. Scotland may also gain a $860m “fiscal stimulus” if the Scottish share of EU contributions is sent to the SNP government.