Ratings agencies S&P , Moody 's and Fitch have said that Johnson 's threat to withhold the £ 39bn ( $ 49.6bn ) debt payment to the EU would not constitute a sovereign default . Their assessments followed reports from a source close to French President Emmanuel Macron , who warned Conservative Party leader challenger Johnson 's move would be " equivalent " to a sovereign debt default . Moody’s took a similar approach. Ratings analysts said , however , a no - confidence vote would lead to the UK " almost certainly " being downgraded , and lawyers warn non - payment of the bill would result in a lengthy legal battle at The Hague International Settlement .
Ratings agencies S&P , Moody 's and Fitch have said that Johnson 's threat to withhold the £ 39bn ( $ 49.6bn ) debt payment to the EU would not constitute a sovereign default . Their assessments followed reports from a source close to French President Emmanuel Macron , who warned Conservative Party leader challenger Johnson 's move would be " equivalent " to a sovereign debt default . Ratings analysts said , however , a no - confidence vote would lead to the UK " almost certainly " being downgraded , and lawyers warn non - payment of the bill would result in a lengthy legal battle at The Hague International Settlement .