THE effects of widespread drought on grain production in South Africa could negate the expected recovery in economic growth in the second half of the year, Mr Kraai van Niekerk, the country's agriculture minister, said yesterday. Mr Barend du Plessis, the finance minister, had been expecting the recession-hit economy to expand by 1.5 per cent this year. However, Mr van Niekerk said: ' As a result of agriculture's low production in summer rainfall areas, there is a great possibility the expected growth rate could be practically obliterated in the second half of 1992.' His predictions followed warnings on Wednesday that drought in southern Africa could cause famine in much of the region. The United Nations Food and Agriculture organisation said hot and dry conditions in January and February were expected to reduce the total cereal harvest in 11 southern African countries to 16m tonnes, 25 per cent down on the average. It said Zimbabwe and South Africa, which normally offset shortages in the area with their own surpluses, would themselves have to import food. Other than these two countries, Mozambique and Zambia were likely to be most seriously affected. The FAO said that as much as 2m tonnes of food aid could be needed for southern Africa this year. Total food imports for the region could be as high as 6m tonnes, three times more than in a normal year. Logistical constraints could further exacerbate the problem, the FAO said, with port handling capacities stretched by unprecedentedly large cereal imports and neighbouring countries sometimes competing for limited rail wagons. It said meeting food aid needs could be difficult as international attention was focused on emergencies in the former Soviet Union, eastern Europe, Iraq and the Horn of Africa.
South Africa's drought could adversely affect grain production and cancel out the expected recovery in economic growth, according to the country's agricultural minister. He predicted earlier that hot and dry conditions in southern Africa could cause widespread famine. The United Nations Food and Agriculture organization said that the expected shortfall would be four million tons. In a statement on Wednesday, President Jacob Zuma of neighboring Swaziland urged his people not to panic. The countries facing famine do not have adequate rail and port facilities, complicating the distribution of food to needed areas.