-- Mr. Greenspan is well-regarded in financial markets. A poll of financial decision-makers by Wall Street economist Richard Hoey finds 76.5% favor his reappointment; that is nearly as high as the 76.9% that favored Paul Volcker's reappointment in May 1983. (Ironically, Mr. Greenspan was the decision-makers' second choice in 1983 with 5.8% support; Mr. Volcker is now the second choice, with 8.8% support.) -- While President Bush's top economic advisers have their complaints about Mr. Greenspan, they are unaware of a replacement they all could support. Former Fed Vice Chairman Manuel Johnson is a favorite of Budget Director Richard Darman, but has a testy relationship with Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady. Mr. Brady is friends with New York Fed President Gerald Corrigan, but Mr. Corrigan -- a Volcker protege -- would probably be vetoed by Mr. Darman or by the President's top economic adviser, Michael Boskin. -- And despite the criticisms by his aides, President Bush still considers Mr. Greenspan a friend and adviser. They have known each other for years, and the president recently issued a statement praising the "strong leadership" at the Fed. In addition, Mr. Greenspan has strong support in the Senate, which must confirm his reappointment. Mr. Greenspan's support in financial markets is especially important. Past administrations have paid close attention to market sentiment in choosing a Fed chief. A choice that is poorly regarded by the financial community, they feared, would cause market turmoil and possibly higher long-term interest rates, as traders drove up rates out of fear that the new chairman might fuel inflation. "The Fed chairman is basically a Wall Street call," says David Jones of Aubrey G. Lanston &amp; Co. Wall Street's influence was apparent in 1983, when President Reagan's Treasury secretary, Donald Regan, mounted a strident campaign to keep Mr. Volcker from being reappointed. Most of the president's top advisers agreed with Mr. Regan; but in the end, the president reappointed Mr. Volcker anyway, to avoid financial turmoil. Mr. Greenspan, appointed by Mr. Reagan in August 1987, hasn't made much of an impression on the general public. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that 24% of voters support his reappointment and 17% oppose it; but an overwhelming majority of 59% don't have an opinion one way or the other. Even in the midst of a recession, it is clear "the public does not pay close attention to the Federal Reserve," say pollsters Robert Teeter and Peter Hart. Among professional economists, opinions are stronger, and generally positive. James Tobin, Nobel prize-winning economist at Yale University, criticizes the Fed chairman for being too cautious in easing credit, but says: "I think Alan has a lot of respect among academic economists as a good applied numbers man, who knows the ins and outs of the forecasting business." And at the Hoover Institution, economist Milton Friedman, who also won a Nobel prize, says: "I think on the whole the Fed has done extremely well since he's taken over. It's hard for me to find a period this long in which I have as little fault to find with the Fed." Mr. Greenspan draws high praise from academics for his talents as a business and government economist rather than for his academic performance. In fact, his major academic work is obscure. Unlike most such works, Mr. Greenspan's 1977 doctoral dissertation, a collection of previously written papers, isn't available. Librarians at New York University, which awarded the Ph.D., say it is their policy to keep a copy of every dissertation, but they are unable to locate Mr. Greenspan's. University Microfilms in Ann Arbor, Michigan, which keeps microfilmed copies of all doctoral dissertations, also says it doesn't have a copy of the paper. Asked about the dissertation, Fed spokesman Joseph Coyne said: "We do not have a copy at the board, but the chairman has a copy in storage in New York." At times, Mr. Greenspan has come under criticism both from some of his Fed colleagues and from outsiders for being too "political," and too willing to succumb to pressure from the Bush administration. A recent harsh attack came from the Economist magazine of London, which said the timing of last month's decision to cut rates -- just two days after Secretary Brady's plea to other industrialized nations for global rate cuts -- was "a textbook example of how not to conduct monetary policy" because it made the supposedly independent Fed look like it was doing the Treasury's bidding. Fed officials, however, say Mr. Greenspan had little choice in the timing of the rate cut. He favored an earlier rate cut but was unable to win the support of three of the five Fed governors -- Wayne Angell, John LaWare and Edward Kelley. On April 30, prodded by weak economic indicators as well as phone calls from Secretary Brady, Mr. LaWare and Mr. Kelley agreed to support a rate cut. Fed officials considered delaying the move so they wouldn't seem to be succumbing to Mr. Brady's plea. But the Treasury's quarterly sale of securities was to be announced the next day. The Fed generally doesn't like to disrupt the quarterly refunding operation by changing rates, so that ruled out any action for another two weeks. Fed officials decided to make their move right away, and take the criticism.
No decision has been made on the fate of Alan Greenspan, but administration officials say efforts to depose him will probably fail. He is well regarded in financial markets and the Fed chief is considered a Wall Street call. Although Bush's top economic advisers have complaints about Greenspan, they have no replacement they all could support. Bush considers Greenspan a friend and adviser. Greenspan has not made an impression on the general public and a majority (59%) has no opinion on his reappointment. He has drawn high praise from academics, although his own academic work is obscure. His 1977 dissertation cannot be found.