Some of the slowdown may be tied to general uncertainty about the election cycle, which has prompted many businesses to take a wait-and-see attitude before committing dollars to new equipment or breaking ground on new buildings. In June, a survey of business economists found that some 60 percent said that uncertainty about the November vote is damaging prospects for growth this year. "Businesses are generally prepared to not have everything go their way, but they have a much harder time when they don't know what's going to happen or what to expect," said Greg Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics. "The outlook is so muddled by political and global factors that it is hard to expect a major recovery" in business investment this year, the Credit Suisse economists said. Still, they note that the risks to that forecast "are to the upside," largely because business investment could stage a rebound once the uncertainty of the election is over.
Three consecutive quarters of contracting business investment could lead to a US recession , according to analysts at Credit Data . While some of that is due to lower oil prices , other sectors , such as agricultural machinery , have also dropped significantly . The last time business investment dropped over a prolonged period , without a recession following soon , was in 1986 - 87 .