"The threat of a cyber attack from terrorists presently is ranked as low," he said. "Islamic State is using social media for propaganda and recruitment but its skills to launch a genuine cyber attack are rudimentary." "That won't always be the case and the ACSC estimates that within three years terrorists will have the ability to compromise a secure network with destructive effect." The minister said that the national computer emergency response team (CERT Australia) had dealt with 14,804 cyber security incidents affecting Australian businesses in the last financial year. He said 418 of those involved "systems of national interest and critical infrastructure." While Islamic State has expressed a desire to venture into cyber attacks their ability to do so is considered remote and have been more successful in recruiting potential fighters online. In September 2015, the Director of National Intelligence in the United States, James Clapper said while terrorist groups are experimenting with hacking, their sympathisers have so far only managed to conduct "low-level attacks," that has attracted more media attention than damage. Alex Kassirer, a Flashpoint terrorism analyst, which monitors extremists' chatter on the dark web agreed that it was "laughable" to think Islamic State, which is in retreat in Iraq and Syria, could launch a cyber attack. "They're incredibly unsophisticated in their cyber abilities," she said. But she said the government warnings should be believed because terrorist groups are repeatedly expressing a desire to venture into cyber attacks. "On this forum there was a recent conversation that discussed 'launching a hacking' and that just shows an interest and an aspiration amongst the group's supporters to learn how to hack and have some sort of cyber capability, so its definitely something they're trying to cultivate," she told Fairfax Media. "I think it's inevitable that they're going to try their hand at it because they see it can be successful," she said. She said she was hesitant to put a timeframe on it on how soon that might be. "But I don't think [three years] seems incredibly overblown, especially given the fact they're talking about it on their forums, it's definitely seems like something on their radar at the very least." Latika Bourke is a journalist for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in London.
The Australian government has warned that a terrorist attack “ to destructive effect ” could take place within three years , as the Australian Cyber Security Centre believes it may be able to develop its hacking capabilities within that timeframe . Currently evaluated as a " low risk " however , Alex Smith , a Flashpoint terrorism analyst believes foreign state actors pose more imminent threats to the country .