Lloyd’s correctly predicted France would win the 2018 FIFA World Cup final before a ball was even kicked. The prediction was based on an economic model assessing the insurable value of all the squads competing in the tournament, which was released last month with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). It is the same model that allowed Lloyd’s to correctly predict Germany would be crowned World Champions in 2014. Cebr used players’ wages and endorsement incomes, alongside a collection of additional indicators, to construct an economic model which estimates players’ incomes until retirement. These projections formed the basis for assessing insurable values by player age, playing position and nationality. The analysis enabled Lloyd’s to predict who would qualify from their respective groups and progress through knockout stages. The team with the highest insurable value in each match is the team Lloyd’s predicted would win and progress. The research was supported by Sporting Intelligence, who provided anonymised footballer salary data for each of the 32 teams participating in the 2018 FIFA World Cup, based upon an indicative 30-man squad for each nation. Victoria de’Ath, Lloyd’s Class of Business, said: “It was a great tournament this year, with a number of shocks along the way which have put many economic models to the test. “Having correctly predicted Germany to win four years ago, we always knew the pressure would be on to get it right again. France’s success in the Final on Sunday proves that Lloyd’s insurable economic value model is one of the most reliable predictive tools out there.”
UK insurer Lloyd's is celebrating after it correctly predicted the FIFA World Cup winners in two consecutive tournaments, using a model based on a squad's insurable value. Created by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the model used players' current incomes and other indicators to estimate earnings to retirement, calculating an insurable value for each team based on age, playing position and nationality, with the highest valued—this time, France—expected to come out on top. Overall, the metric proved successful in predicting 64% of the 64 match outcomes.