( CNN ) -- New Hampshire is all about the independents . And that 's why it 's the best test of general election electability . While Iowa 's caucuses are disproportionately dominated by social conservatives , in New Hampshire 's open primary , independents can vote -- and they make up more than 40 % of the local electorate . That 's right -- in New Hampshire , registered independents outnumber Republicans or Democrats . It 's a libertarian instinct reflected in the state 's motto , `` Live Free or Die . '' It 's captured in the wonderful fact that in the northern town named `` Freedom , '' independents make up the bulk of the 1,000-plus voters . It 's also reflected in the fact that New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the nation . Likewise , a Pew Research Center poll conducted before the 2008 primary found that 55 % of New Hampshire Republican primary voters believed that abortion should be always or mostly legal , while just 13 % of New Hampshire GOP primary voters said abortion should be always illegal -- posing a problem for fundamentalists like Rick Santorum who support a constitutional ban on abortion . Fiscal conservatives rule the roost in the New Hampshire Republican Party , which is committed to the state 's anti-income tax tradition with a focus on balanced budgets and a concurrent aversion to deficit spending . While President Obama won the state by 9 percentage points in 2008 , his in-state approval rating is just 41 % today . To add to its relevance , New Hampshire is a general election swing state , unlike , say , South Carolina . Decades ago the Granite State was considered rock-ribbed Republican , but as the national Republican Party moved further right , especially on social issues , New Hampshire -- like much of the Northeast -- started to declare its independence . Bill Clinton won the state twice in the 1990s , George W. Bush won it in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 . Follow developments on the CNN Political Ticker 's live blog . To add to the portrait of swing state diversity , the state 's two senators are split between Republicans and Democrats -- Kelly Ayotte and Jean Shaheen . The state 's governor , John Lynch , is a centrist Democrat who was re-elected by a 75-25 margin and is serving his fourth term . He is not running for re-election in 2012 . Mitt Romney has enjoyed a double-digit lead in New Hampshire for months . It 's not surprising -- the former Massachusetts governor came in second to John McCain there in 2008 . Romney holds the distinction of being the only statewide elected official from Massachusetts who failed to win the New Hampshire primary . John McCain 's endorsement of Romney is intended to solidify the front-runner 's status as the candidate of the responsible center-right . But even with the two-time New Hampshire primary winner 's benediction , Romney could see tightening margins in the final days before Tuesday 's vote . Jon Huntsman has been camped out in New Hampshire for the past six months , trying to rally Granite Staters around his center-right campaign , promising fiscal conservatism alongside a healthy critique of absolutism on social issues . Likewise , Ron Paul , whose campaign doubled his 2008 totals in Iowa on Tuesday night , is poised for a strong showing in the Live Free or Die State . If Huntsman and Paul continue to gain support with New Hampshire independent voters , they will eat into Romney 's lead , helping Rick Santorum close the gap with Romney . To get a sense of Santorum 's potential base in the state , remember that Mike Huckabee came in third in 2008 . New Hampshire is a very healthy stop for the GOP during the January gantlet , positioned between Iowa and South Carolina . It gives the Republican Party a primary electorate that is representative of the audience the nominee will need to appeal to in November . Florida is a broadly diverse state , but it still has a closed primary . Open primaries offer the broadest choice and the best test of national electability , focusing on fiscal issues rather than social issues . New Hampshire offers the antidote to a polarized Republican Party whose primaries are too often distorted by the fringe blurring with the base . It is a state where centrist candidates are rewarded , reinforcing the wisdom that presidential elections are won by the candidate who connects best with moderates and the middle class . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Avlon .
John Avlon : The `` live free or die '' state is deeply committed to independent thinking . He says it 's a good place for GOP to test candidates for national electability . Comment: Avlon : Obama won state by 9 percentage points in 2008 but is less popular there now .