Prospects for enactment of the first minimum-wage increase in eight years have improved sharply in recent days, sparked by Vice President George Bush's call for a boost in the wage floor. Wage-increase bills were languishing on Capitol Hill only two weeks ago, with many members of Congress reluctant to support a wage rise in the face of heavy small-business lobbying and arguments that the increase would mean job losses. Also, proponents of the bills feared the measure would be watered down too much. But the tide began to turn when Mr. Bush, the Republican presidential candidate, voiced his support for a higher minimum wage soon after he was jeered by Portland, Ore., shipyard workers who have suffered pay cuts in recent years. Now, with the Senate debating a minimum-wage bill on the floor, and House members more eager to follow with similar action of their own, "the national election dynamics have changed the whole issue," said Robert Martin, human-resources manager for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which opposes the legislation. "We felt a lot better a week ago," he said. A union official rated prospects for enactment as "next to zero" before the Bush remarks, but said they're now at least 50-50. "I only wish that {Mr. Bush} had spoken up sooner. Perhaps, if he had, we would already have passed this bill," said Sen. Edward Kennedy (D., Mass.), chairman of the Senate Labor Committee. President Reagan, who had sternly characterized minimum-wage increases as causing unemployment, was quoted by the Detroit News last week as saying he and Mr. Bush were "in agreement -- there could be some {minimum wage} increase because of inflation." The Senate took up the minimum-wage bill late last week, and backers and opponents alike said prospects are strong for Senate approval of the measure. And if the legislation's backers in the House like the Senate version, they'll move to have the House simply adopt it. Some conservative Southern Democrats were reluctant to vote for a minimum-wage increase and be left out on a limb by Senate inaction. But any Senate approval this week "takes that argument away from them," said Jay Butler, a spokesman for the House Labor Committee. The biggest stumbling block is an attempt by the bill's opponents to add an amendment, offered by Sen. Orrin Hatch (R., Utah), ranking minority member of the labor panel, that would allow employers to pay a "training wage" to new employees. That wage, 80% of the minimum wage, could be paid for 90 days, and its advocates argue that it's necessary to encourage companies to hire inexperienced workers who are just entering the work force. The training wage, previously called a youth sub-minimum wage, has long been pushed by the Reagan administration, and Mr. Bush said he wants it too. But the AFL-CIO and many other backers of a minimum-wage boost say the training wage is merely a way for employers to get cheap, entry-level workers. Sen. Kennedy has offered a substitute amendment that would allow each employer to pay 85% of the minimum wage to as many as 12 full-time students, instead of the limit of six students set by current law. If the Hatch amendment prevails, a House labor panel staff member suggests the House may spurn the bill. But despite their dislike for the provision, some union officials indicate they might wind up accepting it, if they must, rather than let Republicans blame the Democrats for killing a minimum-wage increase. The Senate bill would boost the minimum wage from the current $3.35 an hour, which has prevailed since January 1981, to $4.55 an hour over three years. Pending House legislation would lift the wage floor to $5.05 an hour over four years. Provisions that would tie increases in the minimum wage to rises in average manufacturing wages after three years have been stricken from the bills. Reagan administration officials have indicated that any increase would have to be smaller than provided in the measures, and Mr. Bush takes that stand too. The legislation's proponents say it's needed to raise the incomes of several million workers who are below the poverty line, and they insist that the majority of those earning at or near the minimum wage support or help support families. But opponents contend that not only would a minimum-wage rise cause sizable job losses, but that many minimum-wage workers are teen-age members of well-to-do families that don't need larger incomes.
Vice President Bush has called for a boost in the wage floor thus improving chances for enactment. Bush, a presidential candidate, voiced support after being jeered by workers who had suffered pay cuts. The White House said it would work with Congress to pass legislation that will raise wages and help more Americans get ahead. President Reagan who had characterized minimum wage increases as causing unemployment says he and Bush are in agreement. A proposal by Senator Hatch to allow employers to pay a "training wage" of 80% of the minimum may be a stumbling block. Proponents say that the increase is needed to raise the income of millions of workers above the poverty line.