UK insurer Lloyd's is celebrating after it correctly predicted the FIFA World Cup winners in two consecutive tournaments, using a model based on a squad's insurable value. The firm said its model, which uses data from more than 100 million insurance policies, was "99.9 per cent" accurate for both England and Germany at Euro 2012. Overall, the metric proved successful in predicting 64% of the 64 match outcomes.
UK insurer Lloyd's is celebrating after it correctly predicted the FIFA World Cup winners in two consecutive tournaments, using a model based on a squad's insurable value. Created by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the model used players' current incomes and other indicators to estimate earnings to retirement, calculating an insurable value for each team based on age, playing position and nationality, with the highest valued—this time, France—expected to come out on top. Overall, the metric proved successful in predicting 64% of the 64 match outcomes.