The graph from the Cleveland Fed shows the 10-year Treasury minus the 3-month yield spread (the orange line) compared to a one-year lag for year-over-year GDP growth (the blue line). . The likelihood of a US recession this year is growing, as the country's economic expansion period reaches 10 years in June, the longest since the Second World War, according to Chuck Jones in Forbes. The duration of the growth period alone increases the risk of a slowdown or recession, but the Cleveland Fed has also pointed to the flattening yield curve as an indicator. In its latest report, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said that it expects inflation will average 1.5 percent next year, up from just below 1 percent last year.
The likelihood of a US recession this year is growing, as the country's economic expansion period reaches 10 years in June, the longest since the Second World War, according to Chuck Jones in Forbes. The duration of the growth period alone increases the risk of a slowdown or recession, but the Cleveland Fed has also pointed to the flattening yield curve as an indicator. In its latest report, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said that it expects inflation will average 1.5 percent next year, up from just below 1 percent last year.