'Only God can help us through this crisis,' said the Afrikaner preacher called to provide spiritual guidance to South Africa's farmers, who have been hit by one of the worst droughts in living memory. Indeed, in the eastern Transvaal town of Bethal, where Dominee Nel was delivering his sermon at a farmers' meeting earlier this week, elderly residents say this drought is the worst since 1933. Mr JG Wilson of the local agricultural co-operative says maize farmers in the area - one of the largest maize producing regions - have already lost 80 to 100 per cent of their crops. Agricultural economists point out that drought years are more the norm in South Africa than the exception. But Mr Koos du Toit, chief economist of the South African Agricultural Union, says it is the worst drought he has ever seen, and the most widespread. Farmers who produce maize, South Africa's staple food, will be the hardest hit, with stock farmers also at risk. Mr du Toit endorses comparisons with 1933, a highly emotive year for Afrikaners because of the numbers forced off the land by drought. The Maize Board, the state marketing board, expects a crop of 4m tonnes, though Mr du Toit believes it could be closer to 3m or 3.5m, which would make it the worst harvest in 50 years. The board expects to import 2m to 3m tonnes of maize for local consumption, at a cost of R1.5bn. Mr du Toit believes imports could hit 3.5m. Government, for its part, has said that it will act to prevent farmers leaving the land this time - although it has little room for manoeuvre, given the fragility of the country's political transition, the depressed economy and the demands of blacks for a fairer share of government spending. None the less, Pretoria is understood to be contemplating substantial drought aid for farmers: several hundred million rands, or perhaps as much as R1bn (Pounds 200m) over two to three years. Without such aid, the Maize Board estimates that some 2,000 to 3,000 of the 17,000 maize farmers could be forced off the land this year, victims of high interest rates, high input costs, and excessive debt, with drought just administering the coup de grace. Given the ruling National Party's current unpopularity among whites - especially farmers, who are traditionally ultra-conservative - this could prove a serious political blow to the reform process. But the alternative - numerous bankruptcies - could have a serious knock-on effect in several areas. Farm labourers, most of them black, could lose their jobs; with about 1m employed in farming overall, this could be a severe problem. Businesses in rural towns are already suffering and more could fold because of drought. Millions of black subsistence farmers will also be victims of drought, with the charity Operation Hunger warning that hunger could turn to starvation soon in many rural areas. Farmers say abnormally low rainfall and unusually high daytime temperatures have just compounded the already precarious financial situation of many. They complain of deteriorating terms of trade, noting that an imported tractor which cost the equivalent of 191 tonnes of maize in 1985, had risen to cost the equivalent of 347 tonnes by 1989-90. Farm debt is another serious problem, with farmers struggling to repay debts of nearly R16bn at interest rates of over 20 per cent. Low agricultural output will depress overall economic activity, slowing South Africa's recovery from a three-year recession. Real gross domestic product has been forecast to rise by 1.5 per cent this year, though that figure could prove much too optimistic if the worst drought predictions are borne out.
The older generation of South Africa's farmers say that the drought of 1992 is the worst since 1933. In a country where more than half its people live on less than $2 (£1.20) per day, it has been an especially difficult time for farmers. In 1933, drought forced farmers off their land. The state says that it will prevent this from happening this time. Imports of food could reach record levels, thereby compounding the deficit problem. Unemployment caused by the drought, a depressed economy and flat growth rate could add significantly to the state's dilemma.