If Donald Trump acts on his campaign rhetoric to curtail trade with China, the impact on the seafood sector could be unprecedented, industry sources said With his unexpected election as the next US president, many industry sources are generally uncertain about the economy's future and are particularly concerned about trade. Several sources told Undercurrent News that they are still processing the election and are unsure of what to expect, but many openly expressed worry over possible changes in trade policies. One source, source A, who like all of those interviewed for this article, asked for anonymity given the sensitivity of the election, said that any changes in trade with China will likely have a heavy impact on sales of premium seafood products, such as crab and lobster. Sales of those products have been significantly bolstered by demand from China's growing middle class. "[This] may likely reduce middle income earners's disposable incomes in China, reducing demand for high-end seafood," he said. Trump has repeatedly made statements highlighting his intention to curb and renegotiate free trade deals, a move which would undoubtedly have an impact on the export-heavy US seafood industry. Trump has specifically accused China of driving down US employment and has vowed to take measures to constrain trade. According to reporting by the New York Times, Trump has said he would favor a 45% tariff on Chinese exports to the US. According to recent data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US imports from China through September of this year totaled 415,323 metric tons, worth $1.87 billion. The same data shows that exports to China, including fish that is sent there for reprocessing and sent back to the US, totaled 313,525t in the same time period, worth $831.58m. Another source who wished to remain anonymous, (source B), said he expects tough times ahead. “I’m certainly a supporter of trade, I think anything that constricts free trade is bad,” he said. “My job depends on trade, so I am concerned…I think we’re in for a rough patch here.” Source B added that if Trump’s statements are met with action, US producers who send product to China for reprocessing may need to look for alternatives. In the long run, he said, this would cut off the US industry from low labor costs and push down the price of raw material. An observer of US seafood trade policies who wish to remain unnamed (source C) said that if Trump follows through with his statement it could significantly hurt the industry, “particularly in Alaska where seafood is largely destined for export”. “If rhetoric is matched with action, I think it’s a bad deal for seafood,” he said. Russia a silver lining Several sources pointed to the possibility of warming relations between the US and Russia would could potentially lead to a lifting of the trade ban Russia imposed on food products from the US and other western countries in 2014. "I think [Russian president Vladimir] Putin got his way in the election...I think that if we're looking at this strictly on embargo, what an olive branch to send to Donald at the start of his presidency," source B said. Source C also said that this may be "a silver lining" of Trump's presidency. "We've been in a bad place with Russia, maybe if there was an easing of the trade ban to Russia, that could potentially be a good thing," he said. Another Alaskan source who wished to remain anonymous (source D) said that effects on trade with Russia could go either way. "It will be very interesting to see how regulations and trade with Russia will be impacted by the election. I can't even begin to guess," he said. Contact the author [email protected]
Should Donald Trump stick to his plan to cut trade with China , it would have major implications on the seafood industry , particularly the production of premium products such as crab and shrimp , which have been significantly increased recently by the increased demand from China 's growing middle class .