New York ( CNN ) -- The Korean War began 60 years ago on June 25 , 1950 , and it still has n't ended . Fighting on the Korean Peninsula may have stopped with a cease-fire in July 1953 , but North and South Korea have remained in a tense state of armed truce ever since , with open warfare just a hair-trigger away . The sinking of the South Korean navy vessel Cheonan on March 26 -- which an international investigation team concluded last week to be the result of a North Korean torpedo attack -- shows how volatile the situation remains between North and South . There is a real danger of the current war of words escalating into a shooting war , which would be a catastrophe for Korea and the surrounding region . But if all sides , including the United States , pull back from the brink , this tragedy may also present an opportunity to defuse tensions with North Korea and resume talks that have been on hold for the last two years . The Cheonan disaster caused an outcry of grief and anger in South Korea . On May 24 , South Korea 's President Lee Myung-bak gave a forceful speech to his countrymen , asserting that South Korea would not tolerate any provocation from the North and would pursue `` proactive deterrence . '' South Koreans , Lee vowed , `` will immediately exercise our right of self-defense '' if their territorial waters , airspace or territory are violated . '' Lee called the sinking of the Cheonan , in which 46 sailors died , a violation of the United Nations Charter and of the Korean War Armistice and said he would turn to the U.N. Security Council for international support in condemning North Korea . U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has demanded North Korea face `` consequences '' for this attack . But North Korea denies involvement in the incident , claiming the whole investigation is a fabrication designed to undermine North-South Korean relations and ignite a war against the North . The North Koreans have said any retaliation against them for the incident would be met with a forceful and immediate response , up to and including all-out war . China has so far been neutral about the investigation 's findings , calling the incident a `` tragedy '' but refusing to blame North Korea and calling for calm on all sides . Without China 's support , no call for action against North Korea will make it through the U.N. Security Council . ( China is one of the five nations that hold veto power on the Council . ) China supported two rounds of U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang , after North Korea 's nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 , but is unlikely to support sanctions this time . North Korea denies responsibility for the incident and China regards the evidence as inconclusive . Besides , it 's hard to see what further economic or diplomatic pressure can be put on North Korea , which already faces tough previous sanctions . Contrary to common belief , North Korea is not facing internal political disarray or economic decline . Kim Jong Il appears to be fully in charge , and harvests for the last two years have been relatively good . Chinese sources estimate a substantial increase in North Korean industrial production over the last year . Whatever may have motivated the attack on the Cheonan , it was not the act of a desperate or divided regime , and the strong sanctions called for by President Lee -- even if China would agree to support and enforce them -- are not likely to get North Korea to admit responsibility for the attack or to change its behavior . On the other hand , there is a real danger of this war of words escalating into a shooting war . With well over a million Korean troops facing each other across the Demilitarized Zone separating North and South , along with 29,000 U.S. troops in the South , and North Korea now armed with nuclear weapons , the consequences of a renewed Korean War would be catastrophic for the Korean peninsula and the entire Northeast Asia region . The Cheonan incident has reinforced U.S.-South Korean and U.S.-Japanese cooperation in deterring the North . But deterrence can look like provocation from the other side , and in such a tense and volatile environment , a slight miscalculation can lead to disaster . Anger and outrage may be understandable , but cooler heads must prevail . Millions of lives are at stake . Rather than lead to deepening confrontation , this tragedy may be an opportunity to re-engage North Korea in talks to scale back and ultimately eliminate its nuclear program , and to promote security and economic cooperation with its neighbors . North Korea has never admitted to acts of terrorism in the past , and we can not expect it to acknowledge responsibility and apologize for the sinking of the Cheonan as a precondition for such talks . Instead , the international community should take advantage of Kim Jong Il 's stated willingness to return to multilateral negotiations , suspended since 2008 , as a way of reducing tensions on the Korean peninsula . It is time to end the Korean War , not start it anew . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Charles Armstrong .
Charles Armstrong says new conflict between North and South shows tension unabated . International probe shows North Korea sunk South 's Navy ship , he says ; South is furious . Score: 6 Writer : Armed conflict threatens ; but could be opportunity for new negotiations with North .