( CNN ) -- As numerous news organizations have reported , Russia has sent two planes so that about 100 of its citizens who want to can leave Syria . Tellingly , the planes were not sent to Damascus where the security situation around the airport has reportedly deteriorated , but to Beirut instead to which the Russians departing Syria traveled by bus . In its characteristic fashion , the Russian government has denied that this is an evacuation . An unnamed Russian diplomat in Damascus , though , did not rule out the possibility of further flights . Russian naval exercises in the Mediterranean may also be the prelude to a seaborne evacuation from the Syrian coast . These actions are not the first indication that Moscow expects the Assad regime may fall . Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov acknowledged this possibility in December , and President Vladimir Putin himself seemed to distance himself from President Bashar al-Assad a week later . Arranging for the emergency departure of Russian citizens from Syria though , is the most serious indication to date that the Kremlin is preparing for the further weakening or even the downfall of the Assad regime . Read more : The Moscow-Damascus alliance , a tangled tale . These Russian moves , of course , are not ones that the Assad regime can be pleased with . The top leaders as well as officers in its security services , though , may have a strong incentive to protect the Russian exodus in order to secure their own prospects for fleeing to Russia in the event that the regime falls . After opposing Western calls for al-Assad to leave Syria for so long , Moscow is not going to publicly urge him to do so before it is too late . The very fact that Moscow has begun to organize the departure of its own citizens from Syria though , is a signal that al-Assad still has a window of opportunity to depart . Moscow has not yet withdrawn its personnel from the Russian embassy in Damascus . If and when it does , this will signal that the Kremlin has determined that the regime really is about to fall . The departure of Russian embassy personnel may also be the last opportunity for al-Assad and his family to leave Damascus with Moscow 's assistance . The downfall of the Assad regime will present challenges both for neighboring countries and for all the major powers . Because of its ties to the Assad regime the challenges that Moscow faces in Syria after its downfall will be especially difficult . Moscow will want to keep its naval facilities at the Syrian port of Tartus as well as its economic and trade relations with Syria . Yet while the West may be willing to accommodate Moscow here , it is not clear that a new Syrian government that is resentful over Moscow 's past support for Assad will be . If the Alawite minority that the Assad regime is based on manages to flee to its heartland on the Syrian coast and establish a mini-state there , Moscow will face some especially difficult choices . That rump regime will be eager to allow Moscow to keep its naval facility at Tartus and continue receiving Russian arms . If Moscow agrees to do this , however , it will not only have hostile relations with the new Sunni-dominated regime in Damascus that is likely to arise , but also with Sunni-led governments throughout the Arab world . The new Sunni-dominated government ( or just various Sunni forces ) may decide to retaliate through attacking Russian personnel in the intra-Syrian conflict that is likely to continue , and perhaps through assisting Sunni Muslim rebels in the North Caucasus and Russia 's other Muslim regions . Yet if Moscow does not back it , this rump Alawite regime may not last long and the new Sunni-dominated Syrian government might expel the Russians anyway . Moscow did not have to back the Assad regime as much as it has . But because it did , Russian interests in Syria are especially likely to suffer as it continues to crumble . Most unfortunately , it is the Russian citizens now desperately trying to escape from Syria who may suffer most from the consequences of Moscow 's poor choices .
Russia has sent about 100 planes so that two of its citizens who want to can leave Moscow . The Russian government has denied that this is an evacuation . These actions are not the first indication that Moscow expects the West regime may fall , says Katz .