( CNN ) -- Turkey and Syria are locked in a fierce struggle that has escalated greatly following Friday 's downing of a Turkish Phantom F-4 jet by the Syrian authorities . The two heavily armed neighbors are inching gradually into a military confrontation , one that is unlikely to be isolated and that has the potential to turn into a region-wide conflict . Consequently it could take just one spark -- an incident such as this -- to ignite a fire between Ankara and Damascus , the flames of which could enflame the entire region . At this particular juncture Turkey is refraining from taking any military measures against Syria . In Tuesday 's speech to the Turkish parliament , Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that his country was adopting a `` common-sense '' attitude that `` should not be perceived as a weakness '' . Turkey 's new approcah relies on active diplomacy , potent economic sanctions and pschological warfare , and the mobilization of both NATO and the western powers , in an effort to isolate the Assad regime further . Security Clearance : Can Turkey force U.S. , NATO to attack Syria ? It is worth noting that NATO members and EU foreign ministers have called on Turkey to show restraint and avoid action that could escalate into war . `` Military intervention in Syria is out of the question , '' said the Dutch Foreign Miister Uris Rosenthal . However , Erdogan stressed that `` the rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed . '' He stated that any advance by Syrian forces toward the Turkish border would be seen as a threat and `` treated as a military target . '' What this really means is that Turkey is establishing a de facto safe zone that hinders Syria 's ability to move troops close to the border . This will allow the Syrian rebels to gather strength in that the border area and advance toward the Syrian heartlands . PM Erdogan of course spoke carefully in his speech on Tuesday : he stressed that his country talks softly but warned that Turkey 's `` wrath is fierce and intense when it needs to be '' . There is no mistaking the implied threat : the de factor safe zone means Turkey would not allow Syrian forces near border , thus allowing the rebels a free movement there . So while Turkey is not threatening to launch a pre-emptive attack on the Assad regime it is certainly taking indirect steps to support the Syrian rebels . Recent reports claim that Turkey , along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar , is channeling arms to Syrian rebels with America 's implicit consent , though Ankara denies that it is doing so . Turning to the actual attack on the Turkish jet , much remains unclear . We do n't know how long it was in Syrian territory for . And was it an innocent mistake on the part of the pilots , or was the plane on a surveillance mission to monitor developments inside Syria ? The Turkish authorities refute such claims , and say the jet was testing Turkey 's own radar capabilities . On the other hand , Syria acknowledges shooting down the jet , but says the downing of the `` unidentitifed object '' was not an attack . The Syrian government is trying to de-escalate the crisis by saying it did not know it was Turkish , and was merely defending its territory and not acting aggressively . `` We had to react immediately , even if the plane was Syrian we would have shot it down , '' said foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdisi at a press conference in Damascus . `` The Syrian response was an act of defense of our sovereignty carried out by anti-aircraft machine gun which has a maximum range of 2.5 km . '' But in its letter to the United Nations Security Council , Turkey says that intercepted radio communication shows that Syrian units were fully aware of the circumstances of the flight and that Syria knew exactly who the plane belonged to . By downing the reconnaissance aircraft , Syria is trying to send a message to Turkey -- and the world beyond that is supporting the rebels : Be wary : this is not Libya and we have the military capability and the will to oppose and resist any foreign intervention . Erdogan 's announcement signals a subtle and important shift in Ankara 's response to the Syrian crisis , in terms not only of political , economic and psychological pressure on President Bashar al-Assad , but also in creating this de facto safe zone that could in theory be enlarged into a base to provide strategic depth for rebels and allow more defectors to enter . Syria is flexing its muscles , and even though Turkey is not retaliating militarily , its actions could be a game-changer within Syria , and between the two countries that were once close allies . The opinions expressed here are solely those of Fawaz A. Gerges .
Tensions between Turkey and Syria rise over shooting down of Turkish military jet . Fawaz Gerges says just one spark could ignite a fire between Ankara and Damascus . Turkey establishing `` safe zone '' that hinders Syria 's ability to move troops , Gerges says . Score: 6 Syrian is sending message : we have capability and will to oppose intervention .