( CNN ) -- When two important countries appear to be goading each other into a dangerous and meaningless war , it can be useful to take a deep breath , lay the rhetoric aside for a moment , and go back to basics . The past several weeks have seen a sharp increase in the three-decade war of words between the United States and Iran . Iran has held maneuvers in the critical Strait of Hormuz , combined with threats to interrupt commerce there . The United States has lost its third drone over Iran , and unnamed parties are conducting an unprecedented covert campaign of cyberwar and assassinations inside Iran . Iran says it has broken up a U.S. spy ring and has condemned a U.S. citizen to death . President Clinton launched U.S. sanctions against Iran 's oil industry by executive order in the election year of 1995 ; at that time , Iran had not a single centrifuge turning . After a decade and a half of the United States and the international community 's escalating sanctions , Iran has more than 8,000 centrifuges spinning and a substantial stock of low-enriched uranium . This is the very definition of a failed policy . The U.S. Congress in December passed a defense authorization bill that included provisions intended to bring down the Central Bank of Iran . Although President Obama expressed reservations , he signed it into law . This latest U.S. sanctions package is openly intended to deprive Iran of its oil revenues . By prohibiting other countries from dealing with Iran 's banks , it is intended to prevent Iran from selling its oil . That is the equivalent of an act of war -- a financial blockade of Iran 's oil ports that would deprive Iran of more than half its budgetary revenues . We should not be surprised that a country faced with economic warfare would remind the world that it , too , can create mischief . Iran can not close the Strait of Hormuz for a prolonged period of time , but it is capable of impeding oil traffic out of the Persian Gulf for many months . The loss of its own oil exports would be the trigger for such action , which would drive up the price of oil to unforeseeable levels and risk a wider regional war . A war with Iran would not be surgical , brief , or one-sided . As memorably noted by Gen. Anthony Zinni , if you like Iraq and Afghanistan , you will love Iran . It is a huge country , well-defended , with a fierce sense of nationalism . No air campaign , even if prolonged , will end the problem . Regardless of how a conflict begins , it is most likely to end with lots of boots on the ground . A squad of special forces will not do the job . Paradoxically , the quickest way to insure that the Iranians decide to go for a bomb may be to bomb them . The most predictable result of a military strike would be Iran 's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the ejection of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and cameras that watch every step of the Iranian enrichment process . Iran has a dreadful leadership . The surest way to rally the Iranian people around this corrupt and repressive system is for an external power to attack it . In the past few days , we have been reminded by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta that Iran has made no decision to actually build a nuclear weapon . At the same time , Secretary of State Hillary Clinton , while denouncing Iran 's decision to proceed with its deep underground enrichment facility near Qom , has forcefully reiterated the U.S. call for Iran to return to the nuclear negotiating table . In the midst of all the saber-rattling and the clamor of an election year , what is there to talk about ? A good place to begin would be the original U.S. offer to swap 20 % -enriched fuel plates , to be used in Iran 's research reactor , for Iranian enriched uranium . The fuel plates were originally a gift from the United States to be used in the production of medical isotopes . Iran tentatively agreed to such an offer in 2009 , only to withdraw it in the face of domestic opposition . It later accepted the proposal in writing , guaranteed by Turkey and Brazil , only to have it rejected by the United States in 2010 . Iran has since signaled its willingness to resume discussions without preconditions . U.S. policy has been one of pressure leading to negotiations . Iran has also pursued a dual-track policy of threats combined with offers of negotiation . These policies have resulted in the prospect of a war that would be disastrous to all . What we need right now is a crisis exit ramp . Perhaps this is the moment to explore the negotiating track that both sides say they prefer . Join CNN Opinion on Facebook and follow updates on Twitter . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Gary Sick .
Gary Sick : Iran and U.S. are goading each other and need to step back . Sick : Sanctions to stop nuclear program in Iran , set in 1995 , have failed . He says war with Iran would not be won with aerial campaign and would be catastrophic . We need an exit ramp , he says , and must explore the negotiating track both sides say they prefer .