New York ( CNN ) -- Among the political threats wielded by Donald Trump in his carnival barker quest for the presidency is that if denied the Republican nomination , he would run as an independent . As an independent myself , I usually cheer the prospect of any independent campaign . It shakes up the arrogant assumption that our elections are wholly owned subsidiaries of the two major parties and their respective special interests . But Trump has already burned his bridges with most independent voters by choosing to go full birther and pander to the far right wing of the GOP . It 's a shame because in his purely CEO persona , Trump could have mounted a semi-credible independent campaign . Look at what Ross Perot was able to accomplish with such an appeal nearly 20 years ago or what Mayor Michael Bloomberg has done in New York to date . An independent candidate running on a proven record of executive leadership , job creation and improving American competitiveness could be a serious presidential candidate this time around . Especially because a new Washington Post/ABC poll shows that 41 % of American voters now identify as independents . We are the plurality and provide the balance of power in any election . Independent voters tend to be closer to Republicans on economic issues and closer to Democrats on social issues . In other words , they are fiscally conservative but socially liberal . They hate hyper-partisanship and special-interest gridlock in Washington , and they have been deficit hawks since at least the days of Perot . It 's perhaps useful to remember that Perot campaigned primarily on reducing the deficit and the debt at a time when America was struggling to get out of a recession and many people thought that Japan was a rising power that would eclipse the United States . Now , many of those same conditions exist , with China taking the place of Japan in the `` Rise and Fall of Great Powers '' narrative . But crucially , Perot was decidedly liberal-to-libertarian in his social beliefs . He was avowedly abortion rights and even back then supported gays in the military . The CEO candidate is usually liberated from social issue litmus tests by saying that what people do in their private lives does n't affect on-the-job performance . A guy such as Trump could embody the old libertarian line , `` I want the government out of the boardroom and the bedroom . '' Many would cheer . But instead , Trump has done a 180-degree reversal on abortion ( like Mitt Romney before him ) in the hopes of winning the GOP nomination , because abortion-rights Republicans have become an endangered species despite the endurance of `` individual freedom '' rhetoric . ( We can get into how Barry Goldwater 's wife co-founded Arizona Planned Parenthood in the 1930s another time . ) Even worse , he made a strategic decision to pander to the outer reaches of American politics by embracing thoroughly discredited conspiracy theories to drum up support from the fringe . This has succeeded in the short run , compounded by his already high name recognition . But it will hurt both Trump and the GOP in the long run , while nuking any hope he had of appealing to independent voters . If Trump were to try and run as an independent , he could still win enough votes to poll in the low single digits of the popular vote , as Pat Buchanan did before him . But given his super-rich persona -- now added to his opportunistic endorsement of Obama Derangement Syndrome -- his votes would come entirely out of the Republican nominee 's hide , opening the door for President Obama 's re-election . In contrast , Perot 's independent campaign won 19 % of the popular vote in 1992 -- coming in second in terms of all-time independent presidential candidacies to Theodore Roosevelt 's Progressive Party presidential campaign in 1912 . They won votes from the vast vital center of the American electorate . Trump would not . Trump has debased himself and any ideas he had of a political career with the serial idiocies he 's articulated in this flirtation with a presidential campaign . Of course , there will be a cadre of political consultants who encourage him to run because they see dollar signs in their eyes , not because they are thinking of the good of the republic . This is predictable but pathetic . Independent voters are now the largest and fastest-growing segment of the electorate . At the end of the day , we decide which party will win control of Congress or which candidate will win the presidency . But a candidate who panders to the extremes and parades his own irresponsibility can not assume that he 'll win independent votes just because he slaps the independent label on a self-funded candidacy . A credible independent candidate needs to be a consistent advocate for the principled positions independent voters care about -- reducing the deficit and debt while combating hyper-partisanship . Trump made a decision to inflame polarization in the pursuit of self-promotion . As a result , he sacrificed his right to be taken seriously as well as any claims he had to represent independent voters credibly in the 2012 election . The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of John Avlon .
Donald Trump changed his college enrollment this week from independent to unaffiliated . In a column published in Forbes , John Avlon explores Trump 's status as an independent candidate . Avlon : Trump 's use of birther rhetoric would doom his appeal to most independent voters .