Condoleezza Rice , secretary of state under President George W. Bush , traveled 23 times to the Middle East in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to mediate an Israeli-Palestinian accord . Meanwhile , the Russians invaded Georgia . President Barack Obama 's secretary of state , John Kerry , has shuttled 11 times to the region in search of the same elusive goal . And while American diplomacy was once again focused elsewhere , the Russians invaded Ukraine . Now , in an effort to curb Russia , the United States is pausing from its efforts to forge an Israeli-Palestinian peace to generate international pressure on the Kremlin . But the pivot may prove impossible , as the issues of Russian expansionism and the stability of the Middle East remain dangerously intertwined . Late last year , Obama faced a daunting choice . Retaliate militarily for the use of chemical weapons by Syria and anger a war-weary American public or fail to enforce his own red line and severely damage his credibility . Either way , it seemed , Obama lost . Enter the Russians . As the unswerving supporter of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad , Russian President Vladimir Putin alone had the leverage to mediate between Washington and Damascus . Through his cooperation , an arrangement was made for shipping al-Assad 's chemical weapons abroad . All sides claimed a victory . And while Syria has so far parted with only a small portion of its chemical arsenal , Obama still cites the agreement as a foreign policy triumph . That success could yet turn sour , however , if Russia backs out of the deal . In reprisal for punitive actions against Moscow , Putin could enable al-Assad to keep his chemical arms and quietly encourage him to use them . Vividly redrawn , Obama 's red line would be flagrantly crossed . The American public would still oppose any military response , and America 's enemies in the Middle East could revel in their newly affirmed impunity . Putin 's ability to exploit the Syria civil war to weaken and embarrass the United States pales beside the damage he can inflict on America through Iran . Russian cooperation has been crucial to maintaining the unity of the permanent Security Council members and Germany -- collectively known by the mathematical name P5+1 -- in levying heavy sanctions on Iran and reaching an interim agreement on its nuclear program . Held up as an historic achievement by the Obama administration , both the sanctions and the nuclear agreement would be undermined by a Russian decision to pull out of the the P5+1 framework and embark on a separate course of unrestricted trade with Tehran . While pledging to keep `` all options on the table '' with Iran , the United States clearly wants to avoid the use of force . But stripped of all nonviolent alternatives , the U.S. would have to resort to military action to prevent Iran from getting the bomb . Whether in Syria or with Iran , Russia has played its relatively weak strategic hand exceedingly well and is threatening to outmaneuver the United States in the Middle East . Though no longer able to dispatch the great blue water fleet that once challenged American hegemony in the Eastern Mediterranean , Russia is once again asserting its influence in the region . And the reason is simple . While American policy has concentrated on the soft power of mediation -- much of it fruitless -- Russia has invested in the hard power of military assistance and intervention . America has publicly warned that it may not be able to defend the Jewish state from international boycotts related to the peace process . And Washington has disappointed Israelis and Arab Gulf states by easing sanctions on Iran and striking an interim agreement on its nuclear program . Russia , by contrast , stands staunchly behind Syria . America 's allies worry whether they might stand alone . Russia 's allies do not . The advantage , then , goes to Russia . The erosion can only be stopped -- and Russian expansionism checked -- by the reassertion of American preeminence . One way to do that is to aid moderate Syrian rebels . Another way is to emphasize America 's determination to stop Iran from going nuclear by all measures , diplomatic and military , irrespective of Russia 's stand . And America must take steps to restore confidence in its dependability as an ally . This is not the first time that Middle East tensions have been linked to Russian ambitions in the Black Sea . Back in 1853 , competition between Russia and the Western powers in Jerusalem triggered a war over Russia 's control of the Crimea . Britain and France eventually stopped Russia , but only at an immense material and human cost . Today , conversely , the struggle over Crimea could further escalate Middle Eastern conflicts and lead to even greater violence . But that outcome can still be prevented -- not by war , but by reasserting tough American policies in the Middle East , protecting American power in the region and reassuring America 's friends .
Michael Oren : While U.S. focused on mediation in Middle East , Russia acted in Crimea . He says Russia has influence with Syria and relations with Iran to upend talks on nukes . Russia has played its cards well , while U.S. risks being outmaneuvered , he says . Oren : Russia should reassert itself in the Middle East and try to protect its allies .