( CNN ) -- A cat and mouse game is being played out in Russia involving Alexei Navalny , Russia 's best known anti-corruption campaigner . Its consequences could cast a shadow over the future of the Putin regime . Navalny , who has announced his candidacy for mayor of Moscow , achieved prominence by producing a blog that provided detailed reports on the corruption of Russian state-run companies , including the theft of $ 4 billion by executives from Transneft , the state-owned pipeline company . What 's behind Navalny 's conviction ? When massive protests broke out after the falsified December 4 , 2011 , parliamentary elections , Navalny emerged as one of its leaders and in the eyes of many , a future Russian presidential candidate . All this seemingly came to an end when Navalny was sentenced to five years in a labor camp on July 18 after being convicted of misappropriating roughly $ 500,000 worth of state-owned timber while he served as an adviser to the governor of the Kirov region . Before the trial , Navalny predicted his conviction . `` They did n't fabricate this case in order to allow an ( acquittal ) , '' he said . The day after the conviction , however , the state prosecutor stunned observers by requesting that Navalny be freed on bail so he could continue to campaign for mayor of Moscow . Navalny is now free to campaign against Sergei Sobianin , the Kremlin-backed candidate , who has 73 % of support in the opinion polls . Opinion : Putin , a hypocrite on Snowden , Navalny . This seeming act of generosity , however , may have a hidden motive . Elections in Russia do not resemble elections in the West . The core of a victorious candidate 's support is generally passive voters who are threatened at their place of work , bribed with small gifts or favors or bussed to the polling places where they can vote under the watchful eyes of their supervisors . It is this system that accounts for the electoral `` success '' of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the 2012 elections and that of the United Russia Party ( described by Navalny as the `` party of swindlers and crooks '' ) in the last parliamentary elections . The system suffers from one defect : The results lack legitimacy . For this reason , the authorities may actually want Navalny to campaign against Sobanian . His principal accusation against the regime is that it is corrupt . But it will be more difficult to make that argument now that he himself has been convicted of corruption , however unfairly . If , despite all calculations , Navalny begins to pose an electoral threat , a higher court can uphold Navalny 's conviction at any time and he can be jailed and his candidacy terminated . Almost from the beginning of the Putin era , the regime has responded to opposition by accusing its opponents of corruption . Mikhail Khodorkovsky , the former head of the Yukos oil company , was convicted of tax evasion and fraud after he used his wealth to finance opposition political parties . Sergei Magnitsky , a Russian lawyer who exposed the theft of $ 230 million in a tax fraud scheme by high officials , was tortured to death in prison and then , in an almost unprecedented move , was found guilty of tax evasion posthumously . The cat and mouse game with Navalny is part of this tradition . But it may not be enough to save the regime from the anger of the people . In Russia , the corruption market is valued by the Indem think tank at more than $ 300 billion annually , or more than a quarter of the GDP . Russians pay bribes to obtain contracts , to get licenses and permissions , to avoid inspections , to get medical treatment or get their children into universities . Moreover , the chain of corruption rises to the very top . It has been credibly reported that Putin has a personal fortune of more than $ 40 billion and that he and his closest cronies control 10 % to 15 % of the Russian gross national product . Under these circumstances , the regime may be sitting on a time bomb . According to a report cited by the Russian Academy of Sciences , 34 % of Russians `` always '' wish they could shoot bribe takers . Another 38 % `` sometimes '' wish they could do so . In Moscow , the number of people who are disgusted with bribe takers is even higher . Two-thirds of Muscovites would gun them down . The Russian leaders periodically announce drives against corruption and may even arrest a few of their own officials in order to convince the population that they are taking action . The reality , however , is that corruption is integral to the Putin system in which loyalty is rewarded with the freedom to steal , ostensibly private businesses prosper only because they have connections to officials and are therefore , in effect , state-protected monopolies and the system of justice is totally subordinate to the economic interests of the highest ranking state officials . . Independent reformers like Navalny pose a serious threat to this system , which is why they have to be persecuted . But the failure to reform the system means its inner contradictions will only grow , setting the stage for a deeper crisis in the years ahead . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of David Satter .
David Satter : A cat and mouse game is being played out in Russia on Alexei Navalny . Satter : Its consequences could cast a shadow over the future of the Putin regime . He says Russia 's corruption is enormous ; the likes of Navalny is a threat to Putin . Satter : The failure to reform the system will set the stage for a deeper crisis in the future .