( CNN ) -- President Barack Obama faces a real dilemma as he prepares for the State of the Union . Most Americans believe our country is on the wrong track . A majority oppose Obamacare , for a variety of reasons . Five years into his presidency , there is still a very weak economy , and 74 % of Americans believe it feels like we are still in a recession . In addition , he has had a terrible year in which his major policy initiative failed spectacularly and his administration was caught misusing the IRS against political opponents , many Americans were startled to discover the scope of electronic government surveillance and details continued to trickle out about a number of other scandals . And 53 % recently indicated they believe the Obama administration is simply incompetent . The President is now so unpopular in some parts of America that incumbent Democrats hide when he comes to their state . The President recently tried moving to the left with rhetoric about income inequality to arouse his base . That strategy so alienated independents that the White House is now suggesting the State of the Union will focus on upward mobility and helping people achieve higher incomes through growth ( core Republican themes ) rather than on income inequality . The Obama dilemma is simple . He can move to the left and his base will be relatively happy ( except on the NSA spying , where they may be the angriest opponents of the President 's policies ) . But the base is too small to win the Senate races this fall . He can move to the center , and the base may be bored and stay at home while the independents remain alienated by the economy and Obamacare . Tuesday night , the President will be playing a weak hand . He will get a standing ovation a number of times , of course , and the State of the Union is always a spectacle centered on the president . Most speeches like this have an impact for three days . We will see if the President has found a formula that is more effective and lasting . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Newt Gingrich .
Newt Gingrich : President Obama facing tough headwinds as he gives State of the Union . He cites poll numbers showing Americans unhappy with direction and economy . Gingrich : Obama can excite the base with talk of income inequality . But it's not enough to win back independents, who are increasingly turning away from Democrats in midterm elections.