Paris ( CNN ) -- French voters are always good for a surprise , and the French presidential election will not be over before the run-off election on May 6 . But the winner -- likely to be either Nicolas Sarkozy or Francois Hollande -- will need to immediately turn their attention to economic issues . The eurozone 's problems will be top priority . The center of power in the eurozone has clearly moved to Germany , but France has always been the pivotal country in the European project , from the Treaty of Rome in 1957 , to the Maastricht treaty in 1992 , and the launch of the euro in 1998 . So it may well be France , not Germany , which holds the key to the future of the euro . If France stays the course and commits to sufficient fiscal rigor and pro-competitive policies , then the euro has a good chance of survival , in whatever bruised form . Nonetheless , `` Europe '' has been conspicuously absent from the French election campaign . This paradox is best understood by considering that a majority of French voters are attached to the euro as well as to strict national sovereignty in fiscal matters . In the long run , they are unlikely to keep both . For the European sovereign debt crisis over the last 24 months has taught one stark lesson : The eurozone is not really viable without a fiscal union of some sort . But fiscal integration is not popular in Europe , and not in France . Not least because a fiscal union will only be feasible politically with a commitment to economic convergence . France faces other economic problems besides the euro wobbles : A loss of competitiveness , with unit labor costs that increased almost 20 % relative to Germany since 2000 , a rising current-account deficit of 2.1 % , a public sector among the largest in the OECD as a share of GDP , a debt-to-GDP ratio of close to 90 % and a public sector deficit projected at 4.8 % this year that will be hard to bring down amid sluggish growth of 0.5 % or less , and unemployment of 10 % and rising . To outside observers , the election campaign may have looked surreal in its near-complete omission of the economic storm clouds . But French voters are not stupid ; many anticipate a change of gear after the parliamentary election in June ( even the surge of the hard left may well be attributed to such anticipation ) . Whatever the outcome of the election , much will depend on the financial markets in the coming year . Since neither of the two leading candidates has sought a mandate for structural economic or fiscal reform , the push for reform is likely to come from the outside , for example if sovereign bond markets become tumultuous again . `` Le spread '' as it is known in France , the difference between French and German government bond yields , has recently widened again . In France , serious reform is likely to get under way only when it looks inevitable , just as it did in Italy in the fall of 2011 . Expect at some point a fight of high drama and brinkmanship between Paris and the European Central Bank , the arguably most powerful and independent central bank the world has ever known . No prize for predicting the winner : Reform may not be popular , but sovereign default is inconceivable in France , a country that did not have one in 200 years . Austerity will come at a high price in terms of economic growth for France and for Europe . But under current market conditions , conventional fiscal stimulus is not really feasible -- a euro exit would not change that . The only alternative would be a forced reduction in the debt of over-exposed sovereigns and/or banks ( whose leverage risks are really intertwined ) , or an uptick in inflation . The two episodes of forced debt reduction in Europe since the start of the financial crisis , namely Icelandic banks and the Greek government , went actually rather well . As an economist , I advocate more of it . Ireland made a mistake by bailing out all its bank liabilities , and Spain for example should not repeat that error . Still , this road is unlikely to be tried unless decision makers feel they have no choice . If Hollande wins the election , financial markets may well express doubts over several of the Socialists ' campaign proposals . Among them , the corporate tax with increases and the proposed total elimination of the deductibility of interest expenses , the income tax with its proposed 75 % top marginal rate , and the undoing of parts of the pension reform . Eventually , economic pragmatism should prevail in French government policies . Hollande 's campaigning as a man of reason should help . A strong reaction of financial markets in the months after the election could force his hand ; he and his entourage may well have factored it in already , and might even secretly welcome it . After all , Hollande would be the first French president who holds a degree from a business school . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ulrich Hege .
The winner of France 's election will have to quickly tend to economic issues . France , one of the eurozone 's biggest economies , may hold key to the currency 's future . But talk of the economic storm clouds have been absent in the election campaign . Comment: