A new CNN poll shows that it 's back to a toss-up for the 2014 midterms elections . A month ago , Democrats were comfortably ahead 50-42 % . Now the Republicans are marginally ahead 49-47 % : a 10-point swing in public opinion . Of course , the figures do n't actually tell us who will win the next round of congressional elections , but they do remind us of a fact that escapes short-termist political punditry : Voters react to events and are liable to change their mind . The rise and rise of President Obama 's unbeatable rainbow coalition is not a historical inevitability but the product of temporary trends . To recap , the story a few months ago was that the Republicans had proved themselves incapable of governing wisely and , therefore , of winning elections . By trying to use the shutdown to force a delay in the further implementation of Obamacare , they were accused of putting partisanship before country , of pushing America to the brink of destruction just to humiliate Obama . Their humiliation when the shutdown ended was shown in polling across all demographics . Eight in 10 voters disapproved of the shutdown , including two in three Republicans or independents who lean Republican . But Democratic triumphalism was short-lived . The latest polling showing a turnaround was prefigured by two election results that showed residual conservative strength . In one , Chris Christie won a massive 2-1 victory that saw him make significant inroads into groups thought to be beyond the right 's reach : women , Hispanics and African-Americans . In another , an unpopular ultraconservative Republican , Ken Cuccinelli , lost his gubernatorial race in Virginia but only by a small margin , despite being hugely outspent . Christie 's win was probably driven by his personal appeal to voters , but while only 27 percent saw the health law as the top issue , the outcome of the Virginia contest may well have been influenced by public annoyance over the botched rollout of the Obamacare exchanges . And it would be entirely justified by the trouble with the website and the disappointing discovery that millions could lose their existing coverage in spite of what the President repeatedly -- repeatedly -- told them . In other words , while the public turned against the Republicans over the shutdown , they just as easily - and quickly - turned against the Democrats over health care . Crucially , the health care issue has a more direct impact upon their lives , which means its long-term resonance is likely to be greater . Obama 's approval rating is now at its lowest since he took office , which also confirms the scale of the disaffection , and gives hope to the GOP . The conclusion at the National Journal is that , `` Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year . '' Of course , this does n't mean things ca n't swing back the other way . The key word in all this data seems to be `` volatility . '' Voters are fed up with Congress and disappointed in Obama . Who ends up benefiting from the misery will be down to events and good timing . Either way , the idea that Barack Obama established a new New Deal coalition in 2012 that ca n't be broken by conservative politicians is clearly nonsense . Join us Facebook/CNNOpinion .
Tim Stanley : CNN poll shows GOP is now ahead for 2014 midterm elections . The survey was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and released Tuesday morning. He says shutdown hurt GOP , but Christie and Virginia race offered some good news . Stanley : Obama coalition not inviolable ; voters fed up with him and Congress , will shift .