Washington ( CNN ) -- The number making Mike Podhorzer anxious these days is 15 . That 's the lead Democrats have over Republicans among working class voters in the final days of the 2014 midterm elections , according to his polling at the AFL-CIO , the nation 's largest labor federation . That might seem good for Democrats , but in modern times , the party always wins voters making $ 50,000 or less . For Podhorzer , the AFL-CIO 's political director and one of the Democratic party 's top thinkers on voter turnout , it 's the spread that matters . `` Democratic victories are powered by the votes of the people who are more financially stressed , '' Podhorzer said in an interview with CNN at the labor federation 's Washington offices , just up the street from the White House . `` That 's been the case going back to the New Deal . When working class people turn out and vote Democratic , that more than compensates for the advantage that Republicans have among upper income voters . '' In other words , with GOP dependably winning upper-income Americans , it 's up to Democrats to run up the numbers with downscale voters , who made up about 40 % of the electorate in the last election . When Democrats clobber Republicans nationally among working class voters — as they did by 22 points in 2012 — they win . When the margin is tighter — it was only an 11-point win for Democrats in 2010 — they lose . The 55-40 lead Democrats are clinging to among people making under $ 50,000 is wider than the 50-39 lead they had earlier this summer , making this year 's outcome harder to predict . Podhorzer said it does explain why Democrats are still in the hunt heading into next Tuesday , suggesting that next week 's election wo n't resemble the GOP tidal wave of 2010 . But it still makes him nervous . Too many Democratic campaigns have failed to rally their working class base , Podhorzer said , choosing instead to run on wedge issues -- like Sen. Mark Udall 's relentless opposition to a personhood amendment in Colorad -- rather than broader economic populism . `` It 's very dangerous , '' he said . `` I think that picking niche issues and trying to run on a collection of issues and contrasts in this environment is less effective than mobilizing the voters they need to turn out . '' `` Throughout this cycle , polls have shown Republican voters to be more enthusiastic , because Democrats have been taking an approach in general that 's more about slicing into independent voters and into the middle , and has left the base fairly unmotivated , '' he said . The Democrats who have nurtured working class voters with an economic message — like Gary Peters in Michigan and Al Franken in Minnesota — are n't getting much national attention , he said , because they have pulled away from their opponents and are n't being covered by the horse-race-obsessed media . Tight races are not breaking open in the final days , an indicator of `` the cynicism and apathy that people have . '' But even with a motivated base , Podhorzer said Republicans are still not where they would like to be heading into Election Day . `` It 's really remarkable how many close races there are right now , '' he said . `` And unlike 2010 , Republicans are not making inroads into blue territory . In 2010 , they were able to win Senate races in Pennsylvania , Wisconsin , New Hampshire and so forth . This time around they may be able to win races like Colorado or others , but they are not changing the presidential map at all . They have their work to do to figure out how to get the map from the way it looks now to a winning map in 2016 . '' Podhorzer , an engineer of the progressive movement 's superior voter turnout machinery , said the battle on election day will be about get-out-the-vote mechanics . He framed the contest as a test of the GOP 's `` wholesale GOTV '' — paid media and base enthusiasm in a good Republican year — versus the `` retail GOTV '' of the Democratic coalition that relies on the party 's technological advantages and focuses on person-to-person contact and . WATCH : Hillary Clinton clarifies 'jobs ' remarks . The AFL-CIO 's super PAC , Worker 's Voice , is part of the field program Democrats are counting on in tough Senate and gubernatorial races in place like North Carolina , Iowa , Wisconsin and New Hampshire . `` The Democrats ' retail GOTV has gotten much , much stronger than in 2010 , when the base was even more disillusioned , '' he said . `` Democrats will do a better job on retail GOTV , and have more of the personal networks on the ground to pull people out . It 's going to be interesting to see how effective that can be . ''
AFL - Labor political director Mike McCarthy is worried about Democrats ' popularity with working class voters . McCarthy : ` ` Democratic victories are powered by the votes of the people who are more financially successful ''