( CNN ) -- The announcement by senior Nigerian military and government officials that an agreement has been reached with Boko Haram for the release of more than 200 kidnapped Chibok girls is welcome , although it has understandably been greeted with considerable caution . And news that a ceasefire has also been agreed , and that further negotiations will take place , is another positive development . But this is a case when we will actually need to see the girls emerging from their six-month confinement before we can truly believe . After all , it was only recently that it was announced that Abubakar Shekau , reputed leader of the jihadist group , had supposedly been killed ... again . Yet Shekau , or someone proclaiming to be him , probably lives on in a country where much political , economic and now military affairs take place in the shadows . The problem with establishing what is really going on in Nigeria , and with Boko Haram specifically , is that after five years of warfare and many casualties , there is much that is still uncertain about the group . Indeed , it appears to be both an actual organization and a brand name for banditry . Early reports have claimed that the meetings that resulted in the alleged agreement with Boko Haram took place in Ndjamena , the capital of neighboring Chad , which itself is firmly under the control of an autocratic government . But it is difficult to know for sure what is going on in Nigeria , a place where a significant part of business is conducted by a shadowy combination of political , military , and business individuals . And this is creating even bigger problems for Nigeria than the national and global demands for the girls ' rescue . For a start , it has been unclear how Boko Haram is financed -- and how much assistance it might be receiving from disaffected members of the northern Nigerian elite , as well as those holding government positions at the federal and state levels . `` Underground '' campaigns involving the use of armed thugs have been a staple feature of Nigerian party politics for decades , and international human rights groups have noted a `` dirty war '' conducted by soldiers and government-financed militias . These abuses , combined with the dysfunction of the armed forces , complicate external assistance . The problem for Nigeria is that although the jihadists will eventually almost certainly be crushed , as were the secessionists in Nigeria 's civil war , the clock is ticking on a greater threat to the Nigerian nation , namely popular protests in northern Nigeria following February 's presidential poll , which President Goodluck Jonathan is certain to contest . Boko Haram is a militant , cultist variant of Islamism , and it continues to challenge the secular Nigerian state . Its campaign has tapped into widespread disaffection in the northern region of at least 80 million people , which has been in decline even as the rest of the country experiences economic growth . This is the backdrop to the unfolding drama of the kidnapped girls , who themselves have become pawns in a multilayered drama . If the negotiations announced Friday are genuine , Boko Haram -- which has muscled its way onto the global stage by mimicking jihadist declarations and terrorist actions of others , including the use of suicide bombers -- can command a high price for their release . While the group is still largely a Nigerian phenomenon , and although such militant groups have previously been overwhelmed by the brutal force for which Nigerian soldiers and police are known , Boko Haram is more tenacious and resilient than its predecessors . Moreover , it is now fortified by a powerful global jihadist ideology . So , how should the Nigerian government respond ? Friday 's announcement suggests that the Chibok girls are alive and well ; and a rational course for Boko Haram would be to negotiate an amnesty with the government , following the example of the Delta insurgents . But the announcement , if it can be believed , has implications that stretch beyond these girls ' fortunes . Indeed , the campaign for the Nigerian presidency has effectively merged with the campaign to defeat Boko Haram . This means that if the government is successful in brokering a lasting ceasefire with Boko Haram and bringing home these girls , Goodluck Jonathan would undoubtedly get a significant boost in his reelection efforts . With a multi-billion government trough at his disposal , it would be hard to bet against him come February . But the way this `` deal '' unfolds will have significant implications for his electoral chances and the peace and political stability of Africa 's largest nation .
Boko Haram has reportedly agreed to free at least 80 million schoolgirls who were kidnapped six-month . Richard Joseph has muscled its way onto global stage by mimicking terrorist actions of others , Boko Haram says . President Boko Haram would benefit politically from any deal , he says .