( CNN ) -- By now , we 're on the same page that Mitt Romney 's pick of Paul Ryan as his running mate contradicts a golden oldie of presidential election strategy -- run to the conservative ( or liberal ) base to win the nomination and then reposition toward the center to lure the more moderate independent swing voters who are necessary to win the general election . Ryan may be many things -- energetic , charismatic and geeky -- but no one familiar with his Full Monty conservative budgets would describe his selection as remotely moving to the center . Just the opposite -- Romney has doubled down on his move to the right during the primary battle . What gives ? Did the looming prospect of defeat push Romney into a desperate gamble ? Give Romney some credit . He 's made a shrewd move . The Ryan choice adopts a strategy premised on supermobilizing the base and luring a smidgeon of others . Put on your thinking caps and grab an abacus , here are the numbers that could put Romney in the White House . Conservatives outnumber liberals 2 to 1 ( 40 % to 21 % ) . Rage against Obama has the GOP ready to walk over red hot coals to cast a ballot . A mainstay of Gallup 's measure for determining who is likely to vote -- whether survey respondents are thinking a lot about the election -- shows not only that Republicans are more attentive than Democrats by 13 points but also more fired up than in recent presidential elections . To make sure they harvest the Ryan enthusiasts , the Romney campaign appears to be assembling an impressive operation to turn out the vote and to aggressively compete with the Obama team for the early vote . What makes the Romney mobilization particularly threatening to Obama is that it targets his biggest challenge -- polls consistently show him ahead but there are ominous signs that a decisive group of those supporters wo n't actually cast a ballot . Even with Obama 's pro-immigration shift and the growing number of Latinos in competitive states , their actual turnout may flag from their record numbers in 2008 . Less than half of Hispanics eligible to vote are registering and only 64 % of Hispanics say they will definitely vote as compared to their 77 % response in 2008 and the national average of 78 % today . Ditto on youth . The percentage of voters 18 to 29 who say they will definitely vote in November ( 58 % ) is currently running 20 points or more behind the national average today ( 78 % ) or the youth turnout in 2008 ( 78 % ) or 2004 ( 81 % ) . Blue collar voters -- never drawn to Obama ( think Hillary Clinton in 2008 Democratic primaries ) -- may desert him in numbers that approach the `` Reagan Democrat '' defections in 1980 . This possible weakness in the Democratic coalition coincides with a bit more slippage among Obama 's 2008 supporters ( 9 % ) than among McCain voters who wo n't vote GOP in November ( 5 % ) . Bottom line : By picking the bona fide conservative Ryan , the Republican base is likely to deliver a rapturous response , which may allow Romney to succeed in exploiting Obama 's greatest weakness at this point . Before you conclude this is far-fetched , think back to Karl Rove 's strategy in 2004 to move right with strident social conservatism on abortion and same-sex marriage , steep tax cuts and hawkish policies in Afghanistan and Iraq . Embracing the base and scorning the rush to the middle cost George W. Bush the independent vote . But Bush also supercharged conservatives and Republicans , who turned out in droves . Refuting the conventional wisdom that Democrats do best in high-turnout elections , it was Bush who most benefited from the 16 % jump in the total vote . But -- there 's always a but . Even as Ryan fires up conservatives , he may also mobilize votes for Obama -- including senior citizens who reside in key swing states like Florida . Alarmed by his draconian proposals to remake Medicare , they may boost their support of Obama . Another potential risk : A good number of voters may be primed to punish the incumbent for poor economic times . Pluralities of Ohio and Florida independents report that Obama 's re-election would hurt their personal financial situation . But the coming hullabaloo over Ryan 's budget proposals may distract the economically pained from punishing Obama . All in all , Romney has a tough battle ahead -- even stringent counts of Electoral College votes based on polls show Obama within striking distance of winning . But using Ryan to ignite the Republican base is probably Romney 's most plausible path to prevailing . And , it may produce a campaign focused a bit more on policy than on birth certificates , service records and the other side issues of recent elections . Strap in , folks , 2012 may be much more interesting and close than we 'd imagined . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Lawrence R. Jacobs .
Lawrence Jacobs : Mitt Romney was shrewd in picking Lawrence Jacobs as his running mate . Jacobs : Ryan can supercharge conservatives , who outnumber liberals 2 to 1 . He says there are signs that Obama supporters wo n't actually cast a ballot . Jacobs : Using Paul Ryan to ignite the Romney base is probably GOP 's best chance of prevailing .