Attention all snowbirds : If you 're looking for the best retreat this season , go West , you travelers , go West . The western half of the Lower 48 is forecast to have a warmer-than-average winter . Meanwhile , Florida below its panhandle is expected to be colder than usual from December to February . That prognostication comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 's Climate Prediction Center . But there 's a catch this year . How to pay for your vacation . The Pacific weather system known as El Nino is n't behaving as expected , forecasters say . In fact , it has n't even fully developed yet . El Nino indicates warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific , and that influences the jet stream and gives forecasters confidence in their work . `` This is one of the most challenging outlooks we 've produced in recent years because El Nino decided not to show up as expected , '' Mike Halpert , center deputy director , said in a statement . `` In fact , it stalled out last month , leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific . '' Forecasters are keeping an eye out for El Nino . The official 2012 U.S. winter outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas ; the Central and Northern Plains ; the Southwest ; the Northern Rockies ; eastern Washington , Oregon and California ; and the northern two-thirds of Alaska , the center said . Hawaii , however , is expected to have cooler temperatures . Conditions will be drier than typical in the Pacific Northwest , Hawaii , northern California , Idaho , western Montana , most of Nevada and portions of Wyoming and Utah , the center said . Hit the trail : 7 gorgeous fall hikes . It will also be drier in the upper Midwest ( including Minnesota , Wisconsin , Iowa and northern Missouri ) ; eastern parts of North and South Dakota ; Nebraska ; Kansas ; and western Illinois , the center said . This winter should be wetter than usual across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas , the center said . It 's a crap shoot for the rest of the country . They are given an `` equal chance '' for one of three winters : above , near or below normal , the center said . The center 's outlook does n't predict snowstorms , however . Sorry , Frosty . When autumn leaves fall .
The western United States should have a warmer winter , federal forecasters say . But Florida below the panhandle should be cooler this winter . There 's a kink : El Nino has n't developed , taking away confidence in forecasts .