Can we really say that the crisis in Ukraine is as important as meeting the challenge of ISIS , also known as the Islamic State , or Ebola , or the South China Sea ? An initial answer would be that our shifting attention is part of the problem , which Russia has consistently exploited to get what it wants . Russia maximized its deliveries of men and arms to East Ukraine in August and September to coincide with one peak of the crisis in Iraq . Appeals by the likes of former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov that `` considering the surrounding threats , we have to find a way out of the Ukrainian mess as soon as possible '' are unfortunately attractive to some , but are an invitation to ignore our own true interests . The NATO summit in Wales in September did n't seem to think Ukraine was that important . It produced something resembling a plan for ISIS , and some palliatives for the next possible crisis in Eastern Europe by beefing up security in Poland and the Baltic States . But it did little to help Ukraine now . Ukrainian President Poroshenko 's speech to Congress in September was interrupted by applause 40 times , but his barbed remark that Ukraine `` can not win a war with blankets '' only produced $ 53 million in non-lethal aid . ISIS is of course hugely important . The humanitarian crisis in Syria and Iraq involves over 10 million refugees and internally displaced persons ( IDPs ) . The threat of jihadis returning home , especially to the likes of the UK , is rightly of paramount concern . So is the issue of why so many left the UK to fight in the first place . There is also a sense of responsibility for what happened after 2003 or 1991 . But , apart from the issue of militant recruitment and terrorist blowback within Europe , this is not an issue about Europe 's neighborhood . Ukraine , on the other hand , is both the literal and metaphorical frontier of Europe . And Russia 's entire modus operandi , of which its current actions in Ukraine are only the most visible part , is not only a challenge to the European order , but a challenge that is dangerously exploiting the many existing problems within the EU . So , here is a list of reasons to be concerned . Russia has n't finished , even in Ukraine . The territories its proxies control in the Donbas make no historical or economic sense . Crimea is isolated . Russia also wants Ukraine to fail . The story that began with the Uprising in Kiev in February was about changing Ukraine for the better . Then it became about Ukraine 's very survival as a state . Ukrainian voters in the October elections showed a strong desire to get back to the original story . But Russia clearly does not want that to happen . And if Ukraine does fail to transform itself , it will be only one in a string of dysfunctional states ringing the EU . All of Russia 's neighbors , friend and foe , are worried . Russia has been creating an alternative media space in the Baltic States for years . It is blatantly interfering in Moldova 's upcoming election . States like Kazakhstan with aging leaders and Russian minorities worry that succession crises might be turned into secession crises . Azerbaijan has used the crisis as cover to launch a political crack-down ; saber-rattling with neighboring Armenia almost led to war in August . Russia and Ukraine are locked together in a spiral of economic decline . Ukrainian GDP is forecast to fall by 10 % this year . Ukraine also has a humanitarian crisis ; the official estimate for IDPs by the UNHCR was already 445,000 by 10 November . The Russian economy was already flat-lining even before the oil price started heading south . EU states like Germany are finally also feeling the cost of sanctions , with unfortunate timing as the Eurozone again stagnates . None of the scenarios look good : if Putin rides out the pain and the Russian economy really crashes ; if the pain leads to internal crisis in Russia ; or if EU soft-liners water down sanctions before they have their full effect . Russia will be an easy target for a rhetorical hard-line as the USA gears up for the 2016 elections , as direct American business interests in Russia are few . What happens in Ukraine is also crucial for what happens beyond Ukraine . Russia has been causing problems within the EU for years . Projects like South Stream are more important for the corruption they channel into Europe than the energy they might deliver . Russia is actually keen on Serbia joining the EU , in order to have another client state on the inside . Russia did not create anti-EU parties of the left and right , or nationalist movements against EU nation-states , or the post-modern cynicism common among European youth . But its propaganda channels and internet trolls `` nudge '' them all . Russia Today 's motto is `` question more '' -- not believe everything we say about Russia . Its modus operandi is to spread doubt , cynicism and conspiracy-theory in the West . Specific propaganda messages about Russia or Ukraine are then buried in the post-modern melange . And there is a very difficult winter ahead . If sanctions stay at the current level , Russia will really feel the pain in six months . But Ukraine has to get there first , with the risk of further crises and renewed conflict very real .
Russia has n't finished , even in Ukraine , writes Andrew Wilson . Russia also wants Ukraine to fail , he says . All of Russia 's neighbors , friend and foe , are worried , he writes . Wilson : " The Kremlin is trying to make sure that the Ukrainian government fails so it can blame Moscow for its failure.