( CNN ) -- It must have been a galling week for the Russian President . While presiding over a safe , well-run Sochi Games , President Vladimir Putin 's key foreign policy objective -- to hold sway over Ukraine 's place in the world -- has slipped through his fingers . At the very moment of his crowning Olympic glory , Putin probably had the second worst week of any world leader -- after Viktor Yanukovych . It is tiring to repeat truisms but this is not the Cold War and Russia is not the Soviet Union mark II -- not with 2 % of the world economy and a tanking workforce population . Yet in spite of such disadvantages , Russia still desires respect , seeks attention and makes claims to greatness . And in many respects , Russia really is a `` great '' country : historically , culturally and geographically . A stroll around Moscow and St. Petersburg attests to this . So does the character of its people . Unfortunately , in the eyes of the Russian leadership , true greatness requires something more : the ability to dominate in many areas ( technological , military etc . ) , but particularly geopolitically in large parts of the Middle East and Eastern Europe . And in its former empire above all . But this need for control over neighboring states is having precisely the opposite of its intended effect . It 's too expensive for a start . The $ 3 billion it has spent so far in sweet-talking Ukraine to stick with Mother Russia is n't coming back . And that would have come in handy for much-needed social and infrastructural projects -- and for keeping key officials loyal to the Kremlin . But far more than money , there 's an even more important reason why attempts at influence are having the opposite effect : in the long run , it ca n't work . It is to the West 's immense and rare credit that post-Soviet state sovereignty has been a bedrock of policy since 1991 . The five countries of Central Asia , the three countries of the South Caucasus , the three Baltic States , Moldova and even Belarus are universally recognized as independent countries . As is Ukraine . True , the West wobbles at times . The British government has been particularly weak of late in its unwillingness to confront Russia in case it desists from enhancing business cooperation . But by and large the West has stuck to this one principle well - at least rhetorically . Russia , on the other hand , can not bring itself to do this even in words , let alone in actions . Naturally , everyone is now nervously looking to Putin for his next move . The press writes about the worst-case scenario , the most extreme course of action possible . And since Russia did cross international borders in anger in 2008 , this is understandable . But Ukraine 2014 is not Georgia 2008 . Military intervention in Ukraine would undo Russia 's methodical work in discrediting the previous Mikheil Saakashvili government in Georgia and justifying its actions ( protecting 'Russian ' citizens ) not to mention its recent diplomatic agility in Syria . These are `` achievements '' worth protecting . Reputation matters to Russia , as Sochi showed . A Russian military response with little certainty of success ( unlike Georgia ) is a nice fantasy for Russian hawks , but it would shatter Russia 's chances of exerting influence anywhere else . So what then ? Trade restrictions ? Gas cut-offs ? Fomenting trouble in Crimea ? Russia does most of these already -- and will continue to do so . But there are no fresh moves left . Russia has lost this round , but it will live to fight another day , even as more and more statues of Lenin fall in the former provinces . The other reason for Russia 's objection to Ukraine 's revolution is that `` this could happen to us . '' The thought that Yanukovych 's fate -- or Slobodan Milosevic 's or Saddam Hussein 's -- could one day be theirs , can not be a pleasant one . Clearly Putin is far from the extraordinarily inept politician that the Ukrainian president was . This buys him time . But who knows how much ? Russia learns fast and is far more secure than Ukraine ever was . But all power erodes over time -- in democracies and autocracies alike . Maybe Ukraine is a mirror reflecting Russia 's long- or even its medium-term future . This has been a bad week for Vladimir Putin , but it was probably a very good week for Russia . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of James Nixey .
James Nixey says Putin 's bad week may be good for Russia . He says for Russian leaders greatness lies in domination . And that is especially true for the nations that were part of its empire . But for Russia , that is expensive and ultimately can not work .