( CNN ) -- The Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 disaster is a poignant reminder of the randomness of fortune and misfortune . But it also serves as a prelude to an emerging security environment marked by irregular warfare , proliferated high-end technology and complex economic and energy dependencies that will complicate decision-making among allied nations and confound coherent approaches to grand strategy . Indeed , the tragedy has underscored the challenges of a new era in which the line between state and nonstate actors is increasingly blurred . From Syria to Iraq , Gaza to Ukraine , nonstate militias and separatists wage shadow wars using sophisticated technologies that were formerly the monopoly of states . This new era is particularly apparent in the case of Flight 17 , allegedly downed by a Russian SA-11 surface-to-air missile fired by Ukrainian rebels . The downing , which killed all 298 people aboard , is a reminder that small groups -- often exhibiting less restraint than state actors -- can acquire high-tech weaponry of great lethality and precision , which can be deployed so quickly people may not have time to make measured decisions . As technology continues to progress and spread , this challenge will become even more acute . With the proliferation of unmanned and , particularly , autonomous systems that will reduce the role of human input , it will be even easier to imagine senseless acts of irreversible killing , either to achieve a political cause ( terrorism or insurgency ) or out of sheer happenstance and miscalculation . Once missiles and armed drones strike their target , neither the casualties nor the consequences can be undone . The blurring of state and nonstate actors may also increase the difficulty of determining who is responsible , as can be seen in the ongoing Flight 17 investigation . Ironically , in the era of big data , governments may find it harder to identify -- or at least to prove with a sufficient degree of confidence -- who actually pulled the trigger in a given act of armed aggression or political violence . Recent events in East Asia provide further evidence of these developments . While most observers believe that North Korea used a mini-submarine to sink a South Korean corvette , the Cheonan , in March 2010 , some were unwilling to be convinced even by an exhaustive international forensic investigation . ( North Korea denied responsibility . ) Conspiracies and propaganda -- disseminated across ever-expanding social media platforms -- fill the void , leaving people to believe what they want . Escalation may be more likely and deterrence may be more susceptible to failure under such conditions . One chilling possibility is that a future attack , perhaps involving a nuclear device , might trigger an interstate war without definitive proof of who really instigated the fateful first blow . In an instant war , moreover , once conflict appears to have started , there may well be an incentive for some actors to `` use it or lose it , '' particularly in the absence of an existential threat of mutual assured destruction . In addition to the challenges highlighted by the Malaysian jet downing , the emerging security environment will be characterized by an unprecedented level of globalization and connectivity . And while the dark side of globalization has long been identified , the connectivity that fuels our century also threatens us . In an era of increasingly capable cyberwarfare capabilities that can be executed by nonstate actors and individuals , malicious and potentially lethal attacks may be facilitated through the Internet . Many of these may be difficult or even impossible to trace back to specific entities , and even when attribution is possible , the political costs of a response may be high . The recent controversial move by the United States to indict five members of China 's military on charges of cyber-espionage demonstrates the challenges of imposing costs on a subset of actors without upsetting other and often larger goals , such as cooperative China-U.S. relations . The convergence of these factors will complicate the difficulty of alliance decision-making in the years to come , as differing threat assessments , dependencies , interests and standards for international involvement lead states to pursue competing policies , as in France 's decision to deliver Mistral warships to Russia despite broader European calls for an arms embargo . There are many lessons to be learned from Flight 17 's tragic end over Ukraine . But perhaps one central takeaway is that we are witnessing the end of an era of traditional state power , and entering a new era that could place us only a few short missteps away from cascading into more lethal and disruptive conflicts . Join us on Facebook.com/CNNOpinion .
Authors : Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 disaster may be sign of more instability and danger ahead . They say nonstate groups can get access to lethal weaponry and inflict serious damage . Rules of deterrence that inhibit state leaders from risky behavior may not apply , they say . Authors : It may be harder to trace incidents of terror and violence back to their source .