Four years ago , Obama won independents by 8 points over John McCain . Ronald Reagan says it takes some guesswork to predict outcome of such a close election . He says several factors make GOP more likely to win . Romney has made progress in reducing gender gap and may have an edge with independents . Castellanos : Obama has n't cracked 47.8 % barrier , and his 2010 win looks unlikely to repeat .
Ronald Reagan says it takes some guesswork to predict outcome of such a close election . He says several factors make GOP more likely to win . Romney has made progress in reducing gender gap and may have an edge with independents . Castellanos : Obama has n't cracked 47.8 % barrier , and his 2010 win looks unlikely to repeat .