( CNN ) -- Syria is heading to an `` intolerable situation '' according to Turkey 's hyperactive Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu , whose country is at the forefront of global efforts to engineer the downfall of the Bashar Al-Assad leadership . Less than two years ago , relations were diametrically different . Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan considered Assad a close friend and paraded Syria as the epitome of its much vaunted but now defunct `` zero problems with the neighbors '' policy to encourage rapprochement with Middle Eastern nations . Trade across their 850-kilometer border blossomed tenfold , security cooperation against the Kurdistan Workers ' Party -- a militant Kurdish group conducting a violent separatist campaign in Turkey -- flourished and mutual visa restrictions were lifted . This transformation in ties should not be surprising in retrospect . For Turkey and Syria never enjoyed a strategic relationship as much as a convergence of interests triggered by the Iraq war in 2003 to stymie an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq . Similarly , both leaderships found common cause against Israel . Their relationship was merely tactical and psychological bereft of common values . Then the eruption of the Arab awakening upended the stability in Tunisia , Egypt , Yemen and eventually Syria thereby unleashing long simmering sectarian tensions to the surface . Assad 's security and intelligence forces dominated by fellow minority Alawites ( a syncretic and mystical offshoot of Shia Islam ) confronted a largely Sunni popular revolt . Erdogan , a devout Sunni Muslim , did not hesitate to side with the anti-Assad masses . Gone are the days where Turkey defended Iranian nuclear endeavors and cooperated closely with it on Iraq . In its stead , Turkey patched once frosty relations with Washington jointly calling on Assad to resign , solidified the partnership with Gulf Arab countries and adopted a more muscular and robust approach towards Iran . Washington 's cooperation with regional players such as Turkey is a good example of what U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton coined `` smart power '' in play to avoid committing scarce resources in money and soldiers as it disengages from Afghanistan and Iraq . Turkey 's anti-Assad inclination stems from its sectarian sympathies with the Syrian protesters , its desire to project Turkish influence in the Middle East and to restrain the regional ambitions of rival Iran . On the other hand , the U.S. seeks to degrade the Iranian nuclear program and to guarantee the security of Israel and the Gulf Arab states . Despite the toughening rhetoric against Damascus , there is no hiding the fact that Turkey 's choices are severely limited . Russia and China will thwart further U.N. initiatives , the Arab League looks exhausted , and the positions of the pro-Assad and anti-Assad alliances are entrenched . At the heart of stalemate is the future of the Assad dynasty . Turkey and its friends strongly favor regime change while Assad and his allies demand regime stability . How to square this conundrum is testing the limits of Turkish diplomacy . One possibility -- which is most favored by Turkey -- is a negotiated solution . Ankara proposed on Wednesday an international conference to end the violence in Syria . Yet , it seems highly unlikely that procedural fixes will paper over clashing objectives . Negotiations require an abundance of goodwill and a willingness to compromise , two commodities in short supply . That leaves the most risky option of a slippery slope to further escalation on the ground . Turkey is already hosting the Syrian National Council and the Free Syrian Army of breakaway Syrian military personnel . Further measures could include unifying the hopelessly fragmented Syrian opposition and providing additional logistical and other support to Syrian armed groups . Most perilous of all is Turkey unilaterally establishing a security zone or a safe haven on Syrian territory with the backing of the U.S. , European powers and the Gulf Arabs but outside the U.N. purview . This would drag Turkey ever deeper into the Syrian quagmire that is descending into a sectarian civil war . After all , the turmoil in Syria can easily spill over into an ethnically and religiously diverse Turkey . Direct military intervention will also pit Turkey against an angry Russia and a hostile Iran supplying collectively two-thirds of Turkey 's energy needs . Tehran is seething after Ankara agreed to host in September last year a sophisticated US early warning radar system under the NATO umbrella to neutralize the threat of long-range Iranian missiles . Turkey is undoubtedly in a precarious and unenviable spot at the mercy of unpredictable and deteriorating regional circumstances . It is not in control of events but is being controlled by events . What the ultimate outcome will be is anyone 's guess . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Fadi Hakura .
Abu Hakura says Turkey has abandoned its friendship with Syria in favor of protests . He says the change in position is unsurprising , given Turkey 's lack of strategic ties to Syria . He says Turkey 's Prime Minister Erdogan lost no time in dealing with Syria 's anti - Assad masses .