( CNN ) -- The cost of college tuition will continue to rise as long as federal student aid programs continue to increase with little or no accountability . That was the hypothesis ( now known in education circles as the Bennett Hypothesis ) of a column I wrote for The New York Times in 1987 , in response to tuition hikes at many of the nation 's colleges and universities . I had noticed an interesting phenomenon : Increases in federal financial aid were not improving college affordability . Each year , federal financial aid outlays would increase , but college tuitions would continue to rise above and beyond the rate of inflation . Much like the effects of subsidies on health care and the housing market , increasing student aid was insulating colleges from having to make market-driven cost-cutting measures , like improving productivity or efficiency . It appears that this may still be true today . Last month , Andrew Gillen at the Center for College Affordability and Productivity authored a new paper introducing the `` Bennett Hypothesis 2.0 , '' an updated version of my original argument . Under the current financial aid system , he concluded , `` As higher financial aid pushes costs higher , it inevitably puts upward pressure on tuition . Higher tuition , of course , reduces college affordability , leading to calls for more financial aid , setting the vicious cycle in motion all over again . '' In 1987 , I reached my hypothesis by examining the basic relationship between federal financial aid and tuition . Let 's compare the numbers today . In 2010 , the Department of Education distributed $ 133 billion in student aid . In 2011 , it was nearly $ 157 billion , a 17 % increase . Pell Grants increased from $ 29 billion in 2010 to $ 36 billion in 2011 , a 24 % increase . At the same time , in 2011 , costs at the average public university rose 5.4 % for in-state students , or about $ 1,100 . Average tuition at public universities rose 8.3 % . The increases have greatly outpaced the rate of inflation , which was 3 % in 2011 . While increased federal aid does not cause college price inflation , it can be a considerable factor . Many other elements influence tuition prices , such as the rise of alumni donations , the expansions of institutional services and the ever-increasing demand for higher education . Families will go to incredible , and often insane , lengths to get their son or daughter into college , and these institutions know that . Nevertheless , the federal mechanism intended to make college more affordable seems to be having little or no effect . Furthermore , taxpayers are getting fewer returns for their money . In 2009 , the six-year graduation rate of bachelor 's students was 56 % in the United States . In 1997 , it was 52 % . During that time period , student aid skyrocketed . According to the College Board , `` Total student aid increased by about 84 % in inflation-adjusted dollars over the decade from 1997-98 to 2007-08 . '' Taxpayers are subsidizing higher education at greater and greater costs while institutional performance has not kept up . This gap between enrollment and graduation costs the U.S. economy millions of dollars in potential earnings each year and expands the growing student loan bubble . Weighed down by rising tuition costs , students borrow more money each year to pay for college . The more they borrow , the more difficult it becomes for them to pay for college on their own or in a timely manner , and if they fail to graduate , they are left holding larger piles of debt . According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York , student loan indebtedness reached $ 867 billion last year . ( By comparison , outstanding U.S. credit card debt was $ 704 billion . ) And almost 15 % of all borrowers have at least one past-due loan account . There are legitimate fears that this could be the next U.S. debt bomb . Why should taxpayers continue to increase funding for federal aid programs that do little to control soaring college costs and rein in student debt ? Like the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis , the middle class would be crushed by a mass student loan default . Our students and their families deserve better than this . As I said 25 years ago , `` Higher education is not underfunded . It is under-accountable . '' Federal aid should be closely tied to academic performance , graduation rates and the ability of students to repay their loans in a responsible manner . During his State of the Union address this year , President Obama said , `` We ca n't just keep subsidizing skyrocketing tuition . '' He added , `` So let me put colleges and universities on notice . If you ca n't stop tuition from going up , the funding you get from taxpayers will go down . '' It 's encouraging to see the president acknowledge what has long been the argument of conservative education reformers . It remains to be seen if his threat holds any weight and if he will act on it . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of William J. Bennett .
William Bennett : Increases in federal financial aid do n't seem to improve college affordability . Bennett : Taxpayers subsidize higher education , but institutions ' performances have n't kept up . Comment: Bennett : Colleges need to keep costs down , or else taxpayers should stop the funding .