Washington ( CNN ) -- The Kansas Senate seat that Republicans have controlled for the past 80 years looks like it could be in trouble , a new poll finds . Independent candidate Greg Orman now has a 10-point lead in his campaign to unseat three-term incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts , according to a NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday . The survey of 636 likely Kansas voters has Orman with 48 percent of the vote to Roberts ' 38 percent of the vote , outside of the poll 's 3.9 percentage point margin of error . That represents a five- to 10-point gain for the independent candidate , with polling over the last month judging the race anywhere from a dead heat to a five-point advantage for Orman . Roberts ' campaign bringing major players to Kansas . The latest poll , which was conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 1 , comes after a push from national Republicans to bolster Roberts with several Washington campaign operatives , who have helped develop a new , more direct campaign strategy : painting Orman as a Democrat in disguise . Democrats have placed their bets on an Orman victory , going so far as to pull their own nominee from the race to give Orman a better shot at unseating Roberts . Taking out a Republican senator , without a Democrat on the ballot . And while Orman has n't said which party he will caucus with if he makes it to Congress , Roberts ' campaign has done more than suggest Orman will join forces with Democrats , even calling Orman `` Obama 's candidate for Senate '' in a recent ad . NBC News/Marist polling released Sunday also gave Democratic Senator Kay Hagan an edge over her Republican rival Thom Tillis , a good sign for Democrats in a toss-up state that could be crucial to determining the balance of the Senate . Hagan leads with 44 percent of the vote to Tillis ' 40 percent , but within the polls ' 3.8 percentage point margin of error . And in the neck-in-neck Iowa Senate contest , NBC News/Marist polling reports that the race is still a statistical dead heat , with Ernst leading by two points but within the 3.5 percentage point margin of error . Ernst has 46 percent of the vote , according to the poll , to Braley 's 44 percent of the vote .
A new poll finds independent Greg Orman has a 10-point lead against Republican Pat Roberts . The survey was conducted by the University of San Diego and commissioned by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. And in Iowa , polling from the same group puts the Iowa Senate race at a dead heat .