( CNN ) -- Here 's the next thing the Republican party needs to rethink . What does it say if and when the United States returns to prosperity ? For five years , U.S. politics have been shaped by economic hardship . In 2008 and 2010 , voters rejected the party in power , booting Republicans out of the White House , and then sweeping Democrats out of Congress . Mitt Romney campaigned in 2012 on the slogan , `` Obama is n't working . '' President Obama responded by attacking Romney as out of touch , assuming ( probably correctly ) that he could not win by running on his record . But the indicators are suggesting that by 2013 and 2014 , the Obama record will begin to look a lot better , assuming , that is , that the two parties in Washington do n't recklessly push the country off the fiscal cliff at the end of the year . Opinion : How Republicans can bounce back . The nation 's economy added 171,000 jobs in October 2012 , for a total of almost 700,000 in the four months before Election Day . More than half the jobs lost in the crash of 2008-2009 have now been recovered , even as public-sector employment has shrunk by a net 500,000 . The economy is recovering because consumers are less burdened by debt . They are paying down their credit cards , building home equity and strengthening their personal balance sheets . As household debt burdens become lighter , consumers express more confidence . They are allowing themselves to spend a little more . They are even buying new homes again . Housing starts in October 2012 rose to a level 41.9 % over a year before . Accelerating economic activity is rapidly reducing the budget deficit . The deficit has contracted since 2009 at the fastest rate since the end of World War II , faster even than during the late 1990s boom . Wages remain flat , and will likely stay flat until unemployment contracts more , but Americans can begin to see better times ahead for the first time in a long time . News : GOP resistance to anti-tax pledge grows . As they do glimpse that better future , two things will happen in politics : . 1 ) President Obama will begin to claim more credit . In 2012 , the word `` stimulus '' went unmentioned by Democrats . It was Republicans who tried to make political use of the $ 800 billion spent on job creation in 2009-2011 . In 2013-2014 , however , the shoe may suddenly rematerialize on the other foot . 2 ) Republicans will discover that their old `` Obama is n't working '' theme has become obsolete . By 2014 , again assuming that Congress does not leap off the fiscal cliff , it will likely look as if Obama is working . What then ? If negative messaging failed in 2012 , it will fail bigger in 2014 . For too long , the Republicans have predicted apocalypse , debt crisis , the loss of freedom , the overthrow of the constitution . As the economy improves , that doom-saying will seem even more out of touch than ever . Republican political chances will depend on the Republican ability to devise a positive program to address the country 's fiscal problems in ways that improve people 's lives . It 's a new day , guys , and it demands a new game . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of David Frum .
David Frum says signs pointing to the economy losing momentum in next few years . He says household debt is down , consumer confidence is up , jobs are returning . Republican message in November , 2012 was that Obama 's plan was n't working , he says . Frum : GOP needs a new message if the current economy makes real progress .