( CNN ) -- Once again , Syria is at a crossroads . Former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan deserves applause for brokering a ceasefire in a conflict where others have failed , and where some have been only too ready to press military buttons . Despite the seeming success of diplomacy , the conflict in Syria is far from over . This is only a new beginning . Make no mistake : Annan 's mission was not accepted by the regime in Damascus because they were instinctively in line with his thinking . Annan was embraced by the Chinese , Russians , and Syrians because he had come conveniently after the brutal killings in Hama and Homs . It was more timing than principle . If Annan had come while parts of Homs and Hama were under rebel control , then President Bashar al-Assad and his backers would have rejected the U.N. mission . Now that al-Assad has regained territory from the opposition , he is keen to be seen as a peacemaker . Annan 's proposals are ambitious , morally right , and urgently needed . From the need for a political process where opposition elements and the regime are in direct talks , to troop withdrawals , to providing humanitarian assistance , to releasing those arbitrarily detained and allowing free media access to respecting the freedom to protest peacefully . But al-Assad violated all of these principles previously , so why would he behave any differently now ? His calculation must be altered to realize that the fear that he and his father , Hafez al-Assad , had instilled in the hearts of many Syrians is now gone . Suppressing popular protests with tanks can not be repeated constantly with impunity , particularly after the U.S. presidential elections . The political will of the occupant of the White House next January could be stronger on intervening in Syria . It is a question of time before the conflict in Syria flares up again . Annan and the countries involved will only contain , mitigate and offset the parties for a limited time while the opposition regroups . Too much blood has been spilled , too many wounds are open to pretend that violence will not resume again . ( Indeed , there were reports after the agreement was reached that violence had resumed in several areas of the country , where government troops were accused of shelling and burning homes , killing dozens . ) While Annan 's mission hopes to bring all sides to the table , the Syrian government and opposition can not risk the continuing escalation of violence . The answers to the conflict in Syria do not come from outside intervention , but from inside Syria 's opposition movement . Those within the opposition who have opted for violence must immediately return to nonviolence . The lesson of this last year is that the al-Assad regime will meet opposition violence with a disproportionate response and fight to the death . With no coherent leadership , with deep disunity and no real vision for a new Syria , the opposition is fighting for an empty cause . It is more productive in the long term , therefore , that it uses the hiatus provided by Annan to peacefully mobilize the masses inside Damascus and Aleppo , publish a manifesto that gains purchase from minority Syrians that sectarian violence will not rise in a post-Assad Syria , and bring on board the major religious , tribal and business figures inside country . Such measures will help build confidence among noninterventionists in the West , and will result in defections from the military and diplomatic top brass in al-Assad 's government . Failure to do the hard work at the grass-roots level inside Syria while demanding Western military support would be both naÃ¯ve and dangerous . Conversely , the regime knows its days are numbered . It can not butcher dissidents in Hama and Homs and expect to rule the country without introducing serious , substantial reforms . The constitutional referendum last month was held in haste to address the demand for this very thing . Not only does al-Assad need to win over the opposition 's more pragmatic actors , but it must demonstrate adherence to Annan 's plan . But knowing the conniving and deceptive nature of this regime , I do not believe it will sincerely adhere to the letter and spirit of the Annan proposals . Annan may well prove to be al-Assad 's last gamble . If he flunks this opportunity to allow for the six-point plan to demonstrably materialize , then it will be nigh impossible to stop Western firepower from pounding his presidential palace , apartments in Mezzeh , military barracks and bases in the Alawite mountains in Lattakia , Tartous and elsewhere . For his own sake , for the sake of his family and countrymen , al-Assad must deliver . Annan is his last warning , and last chance . He would be well advised to accept the invitations from Doha and Tunis to go into exile , save himself and his family from further danger , and rescue Syria from the increased risk of all-out civil war . The onus is on al-Assad , as much as it is on the opposition to illustrate that it can unite and offer a credible alternative to him . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ed Husain .
Al Husain says Kofi Annan 's deal with Syria 's government is a new chance for regime . He says the plan to stop violence , allow humanitarian aid and more , is correct , crucial . He says al - Qaeda is n't trustworthy , but if pact fails his chance at avoiding a response is slim . Husain : Syrian government must stand down , opposition must unite to form credible government .