( CNN ) -- Same-sex marriage will be the law of the land -- inevitably but not immediately . That 's the message of the Supreme Court 's decision today to let stand five federal appellate court rulings that recognized a constitutional right for gay people to marry . The practical effects of today 's non-decision are considerable . At a minimum , it means that the five states whose cases were before the court -- Utah , Oklahoma , Virginia , Wisconsin and Indiana -- should allow same-sex marriage immediately . In addition , the states covered by the circuit courts that include these states will almost certainly now allow same-sex marriages as well . This includes the Fourth Circuit , covering Maryland , Virginia , West Virginia , North Carolina and South Carolina ; the Seventh Circuit , including Illinois , Indiana and Wisconsin ; and the 10th Circuit , which covers Colorado , Kansas , New Mexico , Oklahoma , Utah and Wyoming . So for a non-decision , today 's non-ruling has a big impact . The justices never explain why they decline to take a case , but it 's possible to offer some informed speculation . It takes only four ( of nine ) votes for the court to hear a case . So why did n't four justices vote to hear the challenges to the same-sex marriage ban ? The court is polarized , with four conservatives ( Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Antonin Scalia , Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito ) and four liberals ( Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg , Stephen Breyer , Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan ) , with Anthony Kennedy holding the balance of power , especially on gay rights issues . It 's possible that neither the liberal nor the conservative bloc felt confident enough of Kennedy 's vote to risk letting him decide the case . So better to kick the can down the road . The conservatives have a special reason for delay . Ginsburg , at 81 the oldest justice , will probably leave during the next president 's term . A Republican president would replace Ginsburg with a solid conservative vote and make Kennedy 's vote irrelevant . So waiting might be an appealing option for them . The liberals had their own reasons for delay . Same-sex marriage has marched with great speed across the country . Today 's non-decision means that more than half the states , with well more than half the population , have marriage equality . Those facts create their own momentum . More time equals more states , which might ( the theory goes ) make Kennedy 's vote easier to get a year from now . But for now , the state-by-state battles continue . As a result of today 's decision , there will not be a 50-state resolution any time soon . But the direction of the country , if not the court , is clear , and that 's more important than any Supreme Court decision .
Jeffrey Toobin : Decision to let same-sex marriage rulings stand has big impact . 5 states with cases before court will allow same-sex marriage ; others likely will , too , he says . Toobin : Liberal , conservative blocs could n't count on Kennedy swing vote , perhaps . Toobin says the decision buys time ; it may sway Kennedy if more states get equality .