( CNN ) -- The shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine may finally force Washington and Europe to wake up to the danger of the conflict there escalating into full-blown war between Russia and Ukraine . This potential cataclysm has been inching closer to reality in the last week . The Ukrainian security council has said Russian weapons and troops have been crossing into Ukraine , and military aircraft from both sides have engaged each other . Documented videos purport to show artillery fire into Ukraine from the Russian side . On Sunday the Russian media went berserk with reports of the first casualty of a Russian civilian on the Russian side , from an artillery shot of disputed origin . Former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told me Monday he was decidedly more pessimistic about the prospects for resolving this crisis than he was three months ago . As a veteran of international negotiations in 1999 on Kosovo and in 2003 on Iraq , he was perplexed as to why the international community was not trying harder to resolve the Ukraine crisis . Last weekend the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council , plus Germany , met with Iran on its nuclear issue but failed to use that opportunity to discuss Ukraine seriously . The Ukraine conflict urgently requires the most resolute and determined efforts to de-escalate before we reach a point no return . Washington should be focusing policy attention on strengthening Ukraine 's capacity to defend its sovereignty , economically and physically ; instead it has a misplaced obsession with using economic sanctions to punish Russia . The Obama administration and its critics on the right , such as Republican Sen. Bob Corker , contend that such sanctions will change Russian behavior , but there is not a shred of evidence to suggest this strategy would be effective . There are many reasons why a policy over-weighted on punishing Russia is a dubious strategy at best . First , the Russian economy was in stagnation , if not recession , with capital flying out of the country at record rates before the annexation of Crimea in March . The Obama administration can not credibly claim its policies have made a significant difference to the Russian economy . They only allow Vladimir Putin to blame the West for Russia 's poor economy and deflect attention from the real culprit , his failed economic policy since returning to the presidency two years ago . Second , Russia 's political economy and psychology are far more suited to absorbing punishment than the West . Russian companies suffering from sanctions can likely expect government subsidies to compensate their losses . I doubt U.S. and European companies can expect the same . They will simply lose market share . What 's more , a thousand years of history suggests the Russians are by far the most effective in punishing themselves . Finally , if Russians perceive their punishment is inflicted by others , it is a powerful stimulant to national consolidation and a spur to inflict unimaginable punishment on others . Putin is an archetypal traditional Russian leader who aspires to making a historical imprint like Stalin and Ivan the Terrible . This is a bloody serious game he is playing , cynical and determined beyond what flabby American and European strategic thinking can or wants to comprehend . He will not be deterred by sanctions . He has made a mockery of the G7 ultimatum in June that he cease and desist in Ukraine in 30 days or else . He has responded by sending more men and equipment across the border , with the predictable result that the `` separatists '' ( the so-called Donetsk People 's Republic is led by well-known Russian citizens ) actions have escalated . The only good news is that the Ukrainian government 's military force has been extremely successful in destroying pro-Russian rebel strongholds over the past month . And herein lies the urgency of the problem . The rebel cause has been close to failing , with the defense of Luhansk and Donetsk being the endgame . Putin can not allow that to happen as it could shatter his leadership position -- he will not allow it to happen , plain and simple . The Ukrainian government has every right to defend its sovereignty against this Russian-instigated insurgency . There is no other solution but urgent diplomacy to de-escalate and to get international peacekeepers to the border region as quickly as possible . The stakes in allowing this war to go on are far too high to allow for anything else .
Andrew Kuchins : Jet 's downing must awaken U.S. , West to danger of Russia - Ukraine war . Focus should be on Russia 's ability to defend sovereignty , not Russian sanctions , he says . He says sanctions over Ukraine 's help to rebels will help Putin whip up nationalism . Andrew Kuchins : Diplomacy needed to de-escalate crisis ; Andrew Kuchins wo n't allow himself to lose face .