Ronald Reagan says it takes some guesswork to predict outcome of such a close election . He says several factors make GOP more likely to win . Romney has made progress in reducing gender gap and may have an edge with independents . Castellanos : Obama has n't cracked 47.8 % barrier , and his 2010 win looks unlikely to repeat .
Alex Castellanos says it takes some guesswork to predict outcome of such a close election . He says several factors make Mitt Romney more likely to win . Romney has made progress in reducing gender gap and may have an edge with independents . Castellanos : Obama has n't cracked 50 % barrier , and his 2008 win looks unlikely to repeat .