( CNN ) -- Virginia is a cautionary tale for conservatives this year . And those Republicans who always argue that their party wins when it moves further to the right are going to have a lot of explaining to do after Election Day . Polls show that `` teavangelist '' Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is going down to a decisive defeat in the governor 's race against an exceptionally flawed Democratic candidate , Terry McAuliffe , the former Democratic National Committee chairman and Clinton fund-raiser . The reason is simple : Cuccinelli is too extreme for swing voters in Virginia -- and that neatly symbolizes the GOP 's problem as it looks to the congressional midterms of 2014 and the presidential campaign of 2016 . The problems have been long brewing in Virginia . Once a Republican bastion , the Old Dominion began to turn from red to purple in 2008 when Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 . But in true swing state fashion , Virginia turned around and elected conservative Bob McDonnell governor in 2009 ; he managed to win by 17 points , cloaking his conservatism in a family-friendly demeanor . Obama won the state again in 2012 , buoyed by demographic changes and the increasing wealth in the region around Washington . Nonetheless , a centrist Republican might still have been well-positioned to win Virginia 's governorship in this off-year election . But that does not remotely describe Cuccinelli . A tea party favorite and self-described `` Second Amendment-supporting Christian right-to-life home-school dad , '' Cuccinelli has built a political career on a foundation of strident social conservatism . Proclaiming `` homosexuality is wrong , '' supporting abstinence-only sex education and devoting himself to abortion restrictions as a matter of faith and law , Cuccinelli has been eager to use political office to advance an ideological agenda . As attorney general he sued to stop the implementation of the Affordable Care Act , challenged the Environmental Protection Agency 's fuel-efficiency standards , backed the controversial Arizona illegal immigration law and issued a legal opinion that sexual orientation should not be included in nondiscrimination statutes for the University of Virginia . His extreme play-to-the-base conservative reputation was only accelerated by the selection at the state convention of E.W . Jackson as his running mate for lieutenant governor . He 's an African-American evangelical pastor with a knack for saying things such as the following : Democrats are `` anti-Christian , anti-Bible , anti-family , anti-life and anti-God '' ; `` Liberalism and their ideas have done more to kill black folks whom they claim so much to love than the Ku Klux Klan , lynching and slavery and Jim Crow ever did , '' and `` Obama clearly has Muslim sensibilities . He sees the world and Israel from a Muslim perspective . '' Add this all together and you have the most far-right statewide ticket in recent memory . Not surprisingly , centrists and other swing voters are looking elsewhere . Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is polling a respectable 10 % -- an indication of the political costs that come from such strident social conservatism , even among fellow travelers on the center-right . Women voters are supporting McAuliffe by 20 % -- a cavernous gap that reflects Cuccinelli 's social conservative obsession . Against almost any other Republican , McAuliffe would be vulnerable , but not Cuccinelli . October 's GOP-driven government shutdown caused Cuccinelli to play defense , reversing longtime rhetoric by suddenly denouncing the effort to force a delay in Obamacare 's implementation and even refusing to be photographed with Sen. Ted Cruz for fear of further alienating swing voters . At the gubernatorial debates , the defiant culture warrior was reduced to bleating about the importance of bipartisanship and compromise -- laugh lines if you knew the first thing about Cuccinelli 's record . Cuccinelli 's problems must be seen side by side with the success of another Republican running for governor -- Chris Christie . The New Jersey incumbent is cruising to re-election by a broad margin in a state where only 20 % of voters are registered Republicans . He is narrowly winning nonwhite voters , and winning women by a 20-point margin . The difference between the two candidates is self-evident -- Christie has governed as an unapologetic centrist Republican with a no-nonsense focus on fighting for fiscal discipline rather than an obsession with social conservatism . He has built cross-aisle coalitions , even on controversial policy proposals , and reached out beyond the base . He puts problem-solving ahead of partisanship or ideology . In other words , Christie is pretty much the opposite of Cuccinelli , and that 's why he is winning in an otherwise ugly year for Republicans . Conservatives will come up with lots of reasons why a swing state such as Virginia seems to be slipping away . But let 's cut to the chase -- candidates who specialize only in playing to the base and pushing ideological absolutism lose . Extremes are always ultimately their own side 's worst enemy . And Cuccinelli 's last desperate attempts to present himself as a bipartisan problem-solver or a libertarian are really just evidence of the political bankruptcy of his position . For those conservatives who always argue that moving more rigidly to the right is the answer to all the Republican Party 's political problems , the toxic Cuccinelli-Jackson ticket is providing an enduring Exhibit A in making the opposite case . It is an example of what not to do -- nationally and especially in must-win swing states such as Virginia . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Avlon .
John Avlon : Ken Cuccinelli appears too extreme for swing voters in Virginia . Democrat Terry McAuliffe would be vulnerable against almost any other Republican , he says . Avlon : Cuccinelli 's candidacy symbolizes trouble GOP faces in 2014 , 2016 elections . The run to the right shows what not to do nationally and in Virginia , he says .