( CNN ) -- Back in January , Vice President Joe Biden summed up President Obama 's first term with : `` Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive . '' At the time , the Obama campaign sought to emphasize the president 's record in foreign policy and saving the auto industry . Last week , the campaign unveiled a new theme and sent Biden to Ohio to test it out . For the first time , Biden called the Republican contenders by name and said that they would `` bankrupt the middle class . '' The campaign is now more focused on the economy , highlighting the difference between the president 's `` promoting the private sector '' and the GOP 's `` promoting the privileged sector . '' The president 's political fortunes have improved , but voters are fickle . Voters applauded George H.W . Bush for winning the Gulf War in 1991 ; then after an economic slump , they fired him in 1992 . If the economy keeps getting better and if President Obama seems to be on top of world affairs , then he will indeed win . Conversely , if the recovery stalls or if he botches a foreign crisis , then he will probably lose . So how do things look ? Although unemployment remains high , it has come down from its peak levels . Other economic indicators are pointing in the right direction , too . In the past three years , for instance , the Dow Jones has increased by about 70 % . On the global scene , President Obama has pulled out of Iraq . As tough as the war in Afghanistan may be , it has not cost nearly as many American lives as Korea or Vietnam . In any case , the administration is planning to withdraw . All told , things are n't great , but they were worse a few years ago . That 's hardly an inspiring slogan , but the reality may be sufficient for the president to get a second term . Here 's the rub : Reality can suddenly turn bad . In the middle of his term , President Carter seemed a decent bet to win re-election . The economy was doing OK , and he had brought the Egyptians and Israelis together at the Camp David Summit . Then the revolution in Iran disrupted oil supplies , hiking gasoline prices and triggering an economic recession . The Iranian hostage crisis initially prompted Americans to rally around their president , but as it dragged on , his approval ratings sank . Although the current situation in Iran is n't identical , there are enough similarities to trouble the White House . Uncertainty has driven up pump prices , which have slowed the rise in the president 's poll numbers . As Newt Gingrich says , `` You ca n't buy enough advertising to offset driving past a gas station . '' A nuclear Iran would put the president 's diplomatic skills to the test . If he failed , he would pay a steep price on Election Day . So sunshine means political victory and dark skies mean defeat . But consider the partly cloudy scenario , where the news is bad enough to put the outcome in doubt but not so terrible as to ensure the president 's ouster . In such cases , messaging comes into play . It might move only a point or two , but in an otherwise 50-50 election , that margin can make the difference . President Obama 's habitual response to policy problems is to say that `` there is no silver bullet . '' He should drop that line , since it sounds defeatist . And werewolves are the only ones that like hearing there are no silver bullets . Instead , the classic political strategy is to go on the attack . As Richard Nixon put it : `` Politics is battle , and the best way to fire up your troops is to rally them against a visible opponent on the other side of the field . '' For Democrats , this advice means painting the GOP candidate as the heartless instrument of the wealthiest 1 % . We are already hearing such rhetoric . For President Obama , however , there is a catch . During the 2008 campaign , he collected millions in campaign contributions from the 1 % . This time out , some of them are shutting their checkbooks to him . Moreover , the rhetoric of rich versus poor can lead to awkward moments . Recently , Vice President Biden accused the GOP of not caring about the middle class . Critics noted that he made the remarks at a $ 10,000-per-couple fundraiser . This kind of back-and-forth will count only if conditions produce a close election . A big margin on either side will depend largely on the economy and grand issues of war and peace . Reality trumps rhetoric . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John J. Pitney , Jr .
Vice president Joe Biden pitches to voters , `` Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive '' John J. Pitney Jr. : Presidential elections turn mostly on the big things : economy , war and peace . He says that in a close election , rhetoric can affect the margin of difference . He says that at the end of the day , reality trumps rhetoric .