( CNN ) -- Sweden 's chase for what is widely suspected to be a submerged Russian submarine operating within its territorial waters ca n't help but remind older Swedes of the fact that , during the Cold War , Swedish waters were thought to be regularly covertly probed by submarines belonging to the Soviet Union . Indeed , back in 1981 , the `` Whiskey on the Rocks '' incident saw a Soviet attack submarine carrying nuclear-tipped torpedoes run aground on the shoals not far from the Swedish naval base at Karlskrona . Fast forward more than three decades , and Vladimir Putin 's Russia is by no means the threat -- materially or ideologically -- that the Soviet Union was during the Cold War . But the fact that the Russian leader has made it clear that he does not accept the advance of democratic regimes onto Russia 's doorstep -- whether they be tied either to the European Union or NATO -- is bound to mean that this latest incident will have echoes of times past for many Swedes . And Putin has been willing to match words with action . With a plan under way to modernize Russia 's military over the next decade , Moscow has increasingly been willing to flex its armed muscle not only in Ukraine , but against other neighbors as well . In the case of Sweden , this has included Russian simulated air attacks against Stockholm , the buzzing of Swedish ships and planes by Russian aircraft and , as recent as this September , the alleged violation of Swedish airspace by two Russian Su-24s , a supersonic attack aircraft . Putin 's jabs at Sweden are undoubtedly also tied to the fact that the government of Sweden has , in reaction to Putin 's revanchist policies , increased its operational ties to NATO and neighboring NATO states even while remaining formally outside the alliance . In fact , the submarine chase that is now occurring comes on the heels of Sweden 's participation in a Baltic Sea military exercise that included vessels and aircraft from Denmark , Poland and the Netherlands . Such cooperation is needed precisely because Sweden has , like the rest of Europe , spent much of the post-Cold War era cutting its defense budget and the size of its armed forces . For example , Sweden 's navy today has fewer than 10 surface combatants , no operational anti-submarine warfare helicopters and only five submarines . It was only two years ago that Sweden 's top military officer admitted that his forces could only defend a small segment of the country for about a week without outside help . All this suggests that the hard reality is that Sweden is in Moscow 's sights -- and not just because Stockholm leans toward the West in its policies . The region 's geography means that any conflict in the Baltic region would almost certainly involve Sweden . Kaliningrad , Russia 's major military enclave on the Baltic Sea , is hemmed in by Poland and Lithuania on its borders and Sweden by the sea , and control of the latter 's airspace and seas could be decisive if a major conflict should occur . In mid-September , Swedes went to the polls and rejected a third term for the center-right coalition that had governed Sweden since 2006 . The new government is an alliance of left-leaning parties led by the Social Democratic Party and has pledged to increase defense spending . No doubt , news of a possible Russian sub trolling in Swedish waters will bolster public support for the government 's decision to up Swedish military capabilities . The question Stockholm will face is whether the planned increase -- less than $ 1 billion over 10 years -- will be sufficient to make up for the two decades of decline and adequate to deal with Russian plans to expand its military strength . For decades , the Swedish government has avoided taking explicit sides between Brussels and Moscow . But the Swedes will find sitting on the fence to be increasingly uncomfortable when Putin is your next-door neighbor .
Vladimir Putin 's Russia is by no means the threat the Soviet Union was during the Cold War . But Moscow has increasingly been willing to flex muscles with neighbors , says Gary Schmitt . Sweden has expanded operational ties with Russia , Schmitt says .