The Southern Plains of the United States are likely to see a continuation of a severe drought this winter , while the Pacific Northwest will be colder and wetter than average , according to data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . La Nina is expected to influence weather patterns across the country for the second year in a row . Weather officials say with La Nina in place , Texas , Oklahoma , New Mexico and other surrounding states are unlikely to get enough rain to alleviate the ongoing drought . `` Ninety-one percent of Texas , 87 percent of Oklahoma and 63 percent of New Mexico are experiencing extreme or exceptional drought , '' said David Brown , director of the Southern Region Climate Services based in Fort Worth , Texas . Parts of Texas and Oklahoma are more than 30 inches below average in rainfall this year , with little in the forecast to predict the trend is going to change as the winter months approach . Agricultural losses in Texas have reached $ 5 billion in the past year , Brown said . Wildfires in 2011 have destroyed at least 3.5 million acres in the state . He also pointed out there are more than 600 separate water systems facing mandatory restrictions . Parts of Arizona , Kansas , Arkansas and Louisiana are also experiencing drought conditions . NOAA expects La Nina , which returned in August , to gradually strengthen and continue from December through February 2012 . La Nina is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean , which influences weather throughout the world . It 's the opposite of El Nino in which warmer ocean temperatures are seen in the same region . `` The evolving La Nina will shape this winter . La Nina is not going anywhere , '' said Mike Halpert , deputy director of NOAA 's Climate Prediction Center . `` There is a wild card , though . The erratic Arctic oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Nina 's typical impacts . '' Officials said the phenomenon could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures . While the opposing weather patterns are always present , it fluctuates between positive and negative phases , the agency said . The negative phase pushes cold air into the United States from Canada and can result in cold snaps and snowy conditions such as the `` snowmageddon '' storm of 2009 , according to NOAA . The highlights of the U.S. winter outlook from NOAA include : . ■ Pacific Northwest : colder and wetter than average . La Nina often results in below-average temperatures and increased mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months . This may set the stage for spring flooding in the Missouri River Basin.■ California : colder than average with odds favoring wetter than average conditions in northern California and drier than average conditions in southern California . All of the southern part of the nation is at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.■ Northern Plains : colder and wetter than average . Spring flooding could be a concern in parts of this region.■ Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states : warmer and drier than average . This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these regions.■ Florida and south Atlantic Coast : drier than average , with an equal chance for above- , near- , or below-normal temperatures . Above normal wildfire conditions.■ Ohio and Tennessee valleys : wetter than average with equal chances for above- , near- , or below-average temperatures . Potential for increased storminess and flooding.■ Northeast and Mid-Atlantic : equal chances for above- , near- , or below-normal temperatures and precipitation . Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Nina but by the Arctic oscillation . If enough cold air and moisture are in place , areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.■ Great Lakes : tilt toward colder and wetter than average.■ Hawaii : Above-average temperatures are favored in the western islands with equal chances of above- , near- , or below average precipitation . Statewide , the current drought is expected to continue through the winter . Drought recovery is more likely over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui.■ Alaska : colder than average over the southern half of the state and the panhandle with below average precipitation in the interior eastern part of the state . The seasonal outlook from NOAA does not project where and when snowstorms may hit , according to weather officials . The snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance , they said .
Strong South weather patterns can overwhelm or amplify David Brown . Drought conditions are expected to continue in the Arctic and Arctic . Arctic will be wetter and colder than average .