( CNN ) -- Wednesday night 's CNN debate lands at a critical moment in the Republican race . This season , each debate has set the tone for the primary to follow . Newt Gingrich 's savaging of the media helped propel him to victory in South Carolina . Mitt Romney 's savaging of Gingrich helped him to clinch Florida . The current uncertainty about the race , and the extraordinary elasticity in the polls , is partly due to the fact that we have n't had a debate for a whole month . It 's important , then , for each of the candidates to make a powerful impression in this last confrontation before Arizona and Michigan vote on February 28 . Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich will compete over who is the most conservative , and Ron Paul will push his unique brand of libertarianism . Same old , same old . But we might see something new from Mitt Romney : a glimmer of humanity . The latest CNN/Time/ORC International Poll shows that Santorum is closing the gap on Romney in Arizona , but it 's probably in Michigan that he stands the best chance of scoring an upset . A week ago , polls put Santorum as much as 10 points ahead in the Great Lakes State . But now they call it a statistical dead heat between him and Romney . So it would serve Santorum well to hit Mitt hard in the debate . This is Rick 's natural style -- he gets a thrill out of counting the flaws of his opponents . But Santorum also probably recognizes that the only way he 'll win Michigan is by reminding voters of the doubts that they have about Romney 's conservatism . That 's what he 's been doing in the western part of the state all this week , where he has hit out repeatedly at Romney 's `` well-oiled weathervane '' stance on issues like abortion and Iran . One thing Santorum does n't particularly need to do in the debate is make voters like him : They already do . According to Public Policy Polling , he has a favorability rating among Michiganders of 67 % . Santorum 's enduring popularity is partly thanks to the fact that Romney has n't been spending his money on an excessive number of attack ads , as he did in Florida . Instead , Romney has been working hard on his own favorability rating in Michigan , which has crept up from 49 % to 55 % . Hitherto , Mitt has suffered from the `` weirdo factor '' -- the sense that he 's not quite like you and me . The press has given a lot of coverage to the Mormon practice of giving `` proxy baptisms '' to deceased nonbelievers , something that Romney admits he has done , but not `` recently . '' This has been compounded by the strange tale of Romney 's dog , Seamus , who Mitt once drove to Canada strapped to the roof of his car . Poor Seamus apparently lost bowel control en route and ran away on arrival . Googlers have tried to turn `` Romney '' into a verb that means `` to soil oneself with fear . '' Here 's an example of it used in a sentence : `` Every time I think of Newt Gingrich being elected president , I Romney uncontrollably . '' But Mitt has been countering the `` weirdo factor '' with a series of ads and personal appearances in Michigan that emphasize his local roots and his concern for the auto industry in a state beset by tragic levels of unemployment . This is the strategy that we can expect him to take in Wednesday 's debate : folksy and populist . There will be a lot about how great American cars are , Mitt 's experience as a businessman , Obama 's relative incompetence and Romney 's Michigan childhood . Whether it will work is a matter of judgment . On the campaign trail , Romney 's idea of soaring rhetoric usually involves singing highlights from `` America the Beautiful . '' Efforts to appear humble are frequently undermined by an ironic statement ( remember the $ 10,000 bet ? ) , and intimate stories about his father are so formulaic they sound as if he learned them by rote . The only way Romney could break the spell of his own emptiness would be to crash sobbing into the arms of Ellen DeGeneres . But if Romney 's reinvention as a human being does pay off , it will be because Republicans desperately want it to work . Republicans still tell pollsters that they think Mitt is the most electable candidate . If they could only be convinced that he is as conservative as they -- or at least as human -- they would probably fall in behind him . A bit of passion and compassion in Wednesday 's debate could be all the excuse wavering Republicans need to back a winner . Follow CNN Opinion on Twitter . Join the conversation on Facebook . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Timothy Stanley .
Timothy Stanley : The Wednesday evening presidential debate comes at a critical time . He says Santorum is threatening to displace Romney as the front-runner in the race . He says while Santorum is liked by GOP voters , many of them have doubts about Romney . Stanley : Look for Romney to try to adopt a folksy , populist tone .