( CNN ) -- Hyperbolic North Korean threats of war are not new . What is new is the intensity and persistence of those threats this time around . Add to that an untested 29-year-old leader who is suddenly a four-star general with lots to prove . How does this end ? Consider these three possibilities : . 1 . What Kim Jong Un hopes : North Korean threats continue to escalate . Pyongyang renews earlier threats to transfer its `` nuclear deterrent capability '' to third parties in the Middle East and declares South Korean waters west of the peninsula an open fire zone . The South Korean stock market plummets . Chinese leaders begin to panic about instability on their border . Washington is desperate to set aside the North Korea problem while dealing with a parallel crisis in Iran . The North proposes negotiations on a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War , but only if international sanctions imposed on the regime after their previous nuclear and missile tests are suspended . Washington , Seoul and Tokyo reluctantly agree to the North 's terms to avoid further escalation . Meanwhile , the North continues miniaturizing uranium-based nuclear weapons in underground facilities . One year later , they test a more sophisticated warhead design and improved missiles payload . The North then demands the end of remaining international sanctions , recognition as a legitimate nuclear weapons state and a summit meeting in Pyongyang between Kim and President Barack Obama . To back up its threat , the North shells several South Korean islands and threatens to use its newly enhanced nuclear capability if the South retaliates . The crisis resumes , but with the North more dangerous . This has more or less been the pattern thus far . 2 . What Washington , Seoul and Tokyo hope : Kim 's unpredictability finally turns the North 's erstwhile ally , China , firmly against the regime . Intensifying U.S.-Japan-South Korean defense cooperation demonstrates how North Korean actions are isolating China within the region . Beijing vows to step up pressure on the regime and stops all inbound North Korean ships and planes for inspections based on U.N. Security Council resolutions . Opinion : Why North Korea worries Dick Cheney . When Kim tries to escalate again , Beijing cuts oil shipments to the North by 50 % ( China 's food and fuel shipments keep the small North Korean economy afloat ) . The North agrees to a moratorium on testing of missiles and nuclear weapons and to resume earlier negotiations on denuclearization . Those talks move at a glacial pace because the North sees nuclear weapons as its only means of regime survival . But Kim 's obvious mismanagement of the confrontation has discredited him in front of his generals . Fissures open , and the regime begins slowly to unravel . Careful U.S. and South Korean coordination with China throughout the crisis lays the basis for a managed unification of the peninsula , removal of the North 's nuclear and WMD arsenal , and freedom for millions of North Koreans . 3 . What everyone fears most : Kim 's escalation strategy fails to cause the other powers to recognize the North as a legitimate nuclear weapons state or to ease sanctions . The young leader and his advisers continue searching for threats that will terrify the South and cause China to provide further bribes for good behavior , but without provoking a massive U.S. attack on the North . The exuberant but inexperienced Kim approves live artillery fire on uninhabited mountains just outside the South Korean capital of Seoul . The South responds with limited counterbattery fire against the North Korean artillery units . Opinion : Does N. Korea think U.S. is soft ? Aware that it can not surrender or win , the North opens broader and deadlier artillery and missile broadsides against the South . Knowing that these forward deployed artillery and missile forces pose the greatest threat to the South if not taken out , U.S. and South Korean forces hammer North Korean emplacements north of the DMZ . The conflict ends with defeat of North Korean forces and decapitation of the North Korean leadership through massive airstrikes , but the damage to South Korea and Japan , which is within missile range , is appalling . How does this end ? Right now we are somewhere between the first two scenarios -- and could remain ambiguously so for some time . The third scenario remains highly unlikely , though not impossible . The first scenario is tempting for some , because it would temporarily ease tensions , but in the long run it makes the third scenario more likely and much more lethal . That means that U.S. policy has to focus on realizing scenario two . The North 's brazen actions make that more possible than ever . But it means not blinking . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Michael Green .
Michael Green : North Korea more threatening than usual ; three scenarios may play out . 1 . Nuke threats grow ; regime will get U.S. to lift sanctions ; regime returns to same tactics . 2 . China will turn on North , cut it off ; Kim will lose power ; North and South reunite sans nukes . 3 . Kim will fire on South ; U.S. will get involved ; North will fall ; Japan , South Korea ravaged .