( CNN ) -- After the craziness of the winter weather , it 's time for some positive predictions , right ? Meteorologists are on the lookout for a weather pattern that could mean a milder hurricane season for the East Coast this summer . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that there 's about a 50 % chance of a weather phenomenon called El Nino developing this summer or fall . That 's not a guarantee , but conditions are favorable enough in the next six months to warrant an `` El Nino Watch . '' An El Nino event occurs about once every three to seven years , said Kevin Trenberth , senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research . It involves the warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean , and results in major changes in the jet stream where storms track . As the ocean builds up heat in the western Pacific Ocean , some of the heat goes into the atmosphere through evaporation . The moistened atmosphere invigorates storms , Trenberth said , changing where hurricanes and typhoons occur . But those of you on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast , rejoice : `` It means that the Atlantic hurricane season will be rather weak because it ca n't stand the competition , '' Trenberth said . An El Nino event would likely mean more shear -- wind speeds that increase with height -- in the upper levels of the atmosphere during hurricane season . This wind shear would suppress the development of tropical systems . California would also benefit if El Nino conditions develop and continue into the winter . The state is suffering from one of the worst droughts in its history . An El Nino pattern in the winter time usually results in much wetter conditions for the West Coast . Because El Nino warms up the atmosphere as a whole , we may see a mini global warming phenomenon , Trenberth said . Places that shivered through a deep freeze this year may see above-average temperatures next winter , if the pattern continues , Trenberth said . But in other parts of the world , El Nino can be quite disruptive , depending on where you live . Monsoons in India and droughts in Australia may result , Trenberth said . Hawaii would be more likely to see a hurricane . Flooding in Peru and Ecuador are also associated with El Nino . Farmers there have switched from cotton to rice farming to adapt during such times , Trenberth said . In February , sea surface temperatures were below average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean , but above average near the International Date Line , NOAA said . There were also strong low-level westerly winds reappearing over the central equatorial Pacific , which could help to hold onto the increased heat content in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific . Right now the El Nino Southern Oscillation is in its `` neutral '' phase -- neither warm nor cool -- but models suggest that El Nino could develop . The last record-breaking El Nino event was in 1997 to 1998 . The pattern led to a relatively warm winter , but also a series of devastating weather events : Flooding in the Southeast and California , an ice storm in the northeast and tornadoes in Florida . `` Be careful what you wish for sometimes , '' Trenberth said .
NOAA : 50 % of El Nino this summer or fall . The other half is due to the Pacific Ocean being in a warm phase, and that will be reflected back into our atmosphere as it warms up again next year. California could get a relief from drought . Record-breaking El Nino was 1997 to 1998 .