( CNN ) -- Auctions are like sporting events ; pundits and punters predict the outcome but never really know what will happen . Triumphs and record breakers tend to make art press headlines , while upsets are quickly swept under the nearest Oriental rug . The performance this week of a Chinese Ding bowl , bought for $ 3 at a yard sale and sold at auction in New York for $ 2.2 million , is the latest result in a string of successes for `` undiscovered '' Chinese porcelain at auction . It began in earnest in the 1970s and reached a climax on November 13 , 2010 , when a porcelain vase from the reign of 18th-century emperor Qianlong took a staggering 53 million pounds from a Chinese bidder in a tiny suburban London salesroom , the kind where bidders sit on sofas and chairs that are part of the estate auction . Both pieces sat unidentified , and unappreciated , for generations , rekindling the flame of hope that burns dimly inside all antiques enthusiasts , whether or not they care to admit it . Flea-marketeers and yard-salers openly acknowledge they live in a world of false hope , spending countless hours , like fishermen who catch nothing but the smallest fry , or nothing at all in most outings . Most hopes that live on are commonly dashed by the first encounter with a professional . The floor of an `` Antiques Roadshow `` taping set is littered with broken dreams -- and sometimes broken porcelain in emphasis . I do not believe anyone has ever statistically plotted the chances of turning up a valuable object at a yard sale opportunity , but expect such a number would be too small to register on any scale . Before any attempt to uncover a dream , it pays to think strategically about what it is you are looking for . Like finding the perfect partner , this may involve a process of elimination but depends largely on common sense and good powers of observation . The essential ingredient in determining value of an art object is no secret : supply and demand . I suggest those on the way to an early-morning yard sale repeat this over and over in the van . Rarity may therefore be a positive factor , but if something is rare , or perhaps unique , and no one wants it ( your grandfather 's homemade table lamp perhaps ? ) , it has no value . On the other hand , an object may be plentiful , even mass-produced , but have even greater demand and therefore value . Some years ago I sold a Lalique perfume bottle at auction for a little more than $ 200,000 . Its owner had purchased the bottle at Saks Fifth Avenue in 1937 ( where it was marked down 50 % on sale ) for $ 25 . There were plenty more waiting to be sold at the time . Quality is sometimes but not always a factor in value . Most baseball cards are extremely inexpensively made , and mass-produced , making all cards from any given series fundamentally the same , except of course for the subject . Most cards , even those a century old , are worth a few dollars at best , and a pitiful percentage rise into the hundreds individually , but a few are valued into six or even seven figures . The economics of supply and demand work powerfully when applied to the subtleties of collecting a set . It is not coincidental that most remarkable numbers lately have been put up by Chinese objects . The year 2010 , in which China overtook Europe to become the second-largest art market after the United States , has been described as an annus mirabilis for Chinese art collecting as wealthy Chinese from all levels of the new society chose art and objects as tangible assets , suitable for investment , trading and bragging rights beyond simple display . The demand is as large as the Chinese population and economy , and supply of exquisite objects limited , thanks to most being in Western museums or private collections . A fundamental awareness of Chinese porcelain may be a big help in your hopes of finding the same success as the owner of the Ding bowl , but serious knowledge is an area of immense expertise shared by an elite few and respected by the trade above all other areas of understanding . If you rely on luck , however , Chinese porcelain is a fairly good bet . The Ding bowl looks quite ordinary to most of us . It is monochrome , with an extremely subtle pattern , and does not have a mark translating as `` valuable Ding bowl '' stamped on the bottom , making it look like a bowl found in Pottery Barn ( and more commonly found at yard sales ) . Good luck in your search . The only other comparable example is in the British Museum . Perhaps a hidden treasure may be closer than you think . Heritage Auctions offers an example of the insanely rare 1913 Liberty Head nickel in April . The last one we offered sold for $ 3.73 million . It looks pretty much like any other nickel to most of us , and there may have been others in circulation . Check your pockets . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nicholas Dawes .
Nicholas Dawes : Ding bowl that fetched $ 2.2 million is the latest in big deals on Chinese art . Yard sale fans ' hopes rekindled , he says , but dreams elusive ( see `` Antiques Roadshow '' ) He says key to value is supply and demand , but calculation varies so keep trying . Dawes : Chinese art value growing , especially in China , as society and art market open up .