Remember `` peak oil '' ? Five years ago , some oil market speculators became convinced that the world was nearing the limits of oil production . Sometime soon -- the 2010s ? the 2020s ? -- oil production would begin a long steady decline . Think again . World oil production continues to rise . Leading the oil renaissance : the United States . The International Energy Agency predicts that the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become ( again ! ) the world 's leading oil producer by 2017 . If the agency 's estimates prove correct , the United States and Canada together will become net energy exporters by about 2030 , and the U.S. , which uses 20 % of the world 's energy , will achieve energy self-sufficiency by the mid-2030s . Predictions that the world would imminently `` run out of oil '' have been worrying oil consumers since at least the 1920s . They always prove wrong , for reasons explained by the great oil economist M.A . Adelman after the last `` oil shortage '' in the 1970s : . Oil reserves , Adelman writes , `` are no gift of nature . They ( are ) a growth of knowledge , paid for by heavy investment . '' For all practical purposes , the world 's supply of oil is not finite . It is more like a supermarket 's supply of canned tomatoes . At any given moment , there may be a dozen cases in the store , but that inventory is constantly being replenished with the money the customers pay for the cans they remove , and the more tomatoes that customers buy , the bigger an inventory the store will carry . Someday , of course , consumers will decide they want less oil at the current price . Someday we may move beyond oil altogether . When that day comes , the investment will stop -- and nobody will ever know or care how much oil remains in the ground . Adelman 's assessment is being corroborated once more , this time in Mexico . Mexican oil production has been declining over the past decade , mostly because of under-investment and mismanagement by the state oil monopoly , Pemex . ( On January 31 , a deadly tragedy reminded the world of Pemex 's troubles when a methane leak in a Pemex building in downtown Mexico City exploded , killing more than 30 people and injuring 120 others . ) In October , Pemex announced discovery of a big new field in the Gulf of Mexico . Newly elected Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto is urging his country to amend its constitution to allow foreign investment in Mexican oil fields . Experts assess that opening the Mexican oil industry to global investment will revive Mexican oil production and boost Mexico 's economic growth by potentially 2 points a year . Nieto 's PRI party -- the very party that nationalized Mexican oil 80 years ago -- is expected to vote this weekend to approve the new policy . Meanwhile , the International Energy Agency is warning oil markets to ready themselves for a `` flood '' of cheap oil from Iraq . Last year , Iraq for the first time exceeded pre-1990 oil production . The agency expects Iraq eventually to overtake Russia as the world 's second-largest oil exporter . In 1972 , the year of the famous `` Limits to Growth '' report by the Club of Rome , the world produced about 55 million barrels of oil per day . In 2011 , the world produced almost 80 million barrels . If today 's prices hold , many experts expect production of 90 million barrels by decade 's end . Our oil problem is not that `` we 're running out . '' Our oil problem is that we 're producing so much of the stuff that we are changing the planet 's climate . Yet on the environmental front too , there 's reason for optimism . One of the technologies developed by the oil industry -- fracking -- has made available vast new supplies of cheap natural gas . Gas has become so cheap that it can be substituted for coal as an electricity-generating fuel . In just eight years , coal 's share of the U.S. electricity market has tumbled from one-half to one third -- and still falling . Gas emits only half the carbon per unit of energy of coal . The transition from coal to gas explains why U.S. carbon emissions declined 8 % from 2011 to 2012 , reaching the lowest level since 1992 . Soon the United States and Canada will be producing so much gas that they can export it to Europe , perhaps also to China , helping to cut carbon emissions in those economies as well . No , it 's not the answer to everything : Gas still emits carbon . But it 's an improvement -- and that 's how progress comes . Instead of fantasizing about catastrophes ( running out of oil ) and miracles ( a rapid transition to solar power ) , our energy thinking needs to emphasize the achievable and the incremental . Convert from coal to gas . Tax gasoline to induce people to live closer to work and to buy more fuel-efficient cars . We can enjoy a rising quality of life with declining energy inputs . Put us on the path to the right kind of `` peak oil '' -- and peak carbon -- the peak that comes , not because we find less and less , but because we want less and less .
Five years ago , speculators predicted that oil production was peaking . David Frum says recent evidence is that energy sources are plentiful . Iraq and Mexico can produce much more oil , and United States is awash in natural gas , he says . Frum : Gas surplus is enabling U.S. to reduce carbon emissions that change climate .