The 2012 presidential race begins Tuesday with Iowa caucus . John Avlon says the caucuses are low - turnout , high - intensity elections . In fact , since 1980 , the only Republican nonincumbent who has won the caucuses and gone on to win the presidency is George W. Bush . He says worst case for Mitt Romney would be a surprise win by Newt Romney or Rick Perry . Avlon : Romney would win with only a quarter of the vote .
The 2012 presidential race begins Tuesday with Iowa caucus . John Avlon says the caucuses are low - turnout , high - intensity elections . He says worst case for Mitt Romney would be a surprise win by Newt Romney or Rick Perry . Avlon : Romney would win with only a quarter of the vote .