Stuart Rothenberg , who has served as a political analyst for CNN and CBS News , is editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report , a non-partisan political newsletter . Nathan Gonzales is the publication 's political editor . North Carolina 's Elizabeth Dole was once regarded as a lock for re-election , but now could lose her seat . WASHINGTON ( CNN ) -- Two years ago , as the 2007-2008 election cycle was beginning , one female Republican senator up for re-election looked to be in serious danger : Maine 's Susan Collins . But with just three weeks left until Election Day , the moderate Collins now appears to be one of the few embattled Republican senators who could survive the forthcoming Democratic wave . On the other hand , North Carolina 's Elizabeth Dole , once regarded as a lock for re-election , looks as if she is about to fall at the hands of Democratic challenger Kay Hagan . How did Dole become more endangered than Collins ? First , Collins ' campaign understood from the beginning that her opponent , 1st District Democratic Congressman Tom Allen , would be a formidable foe . Allen , a former mayor of Portland , already represents half of the state , and he has the kind of earnest , low-key style that appeals to many Maine voters . Second , Collins understood that she 'd get no help from the top of the ticket this year , so she had to raise money and get her message out early . Most neutral observers have expected the eventual Democratic nominee for president to carry Maine this year , since Al Gore carried the state by 5 percentage points in 2000 and John Kerry won it by 9 percentage points four years ago . Third , for whatever reason , Collins has , over the 12 years that she has represented the state in the Senate , developed considerable affection and respect from Maine voters , who see her as independent , hard-working and down to earth . It has been that bond with state voters that has allowed her to weather the current storm that is overwhelming other Republican incumbents . Dole , on the other hand , seemed not to appreciate the threat she faced . Hagan , after all , was not the initially-preferred candidate of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee , and the Democratic state senator from Greensboro had first ruled out a bid against Dole before eventually changing her mind . Dole also apparently had trouble accepting that she was vulnerable . Her early poll numbers were strong , after all . But the DSCC spent heavily to attack Dole early , and they succeeded in softening her up . They also hit her on two good issues : her effectiveness ( or lack of it ) in Washington and the little time that she has spent in the state over the past few years . Finally , Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is running better in the Tarheel state than most expected , so Dole is n't getting any kind of bump from the presidential race . Voters seem more interested in voting for change than for the more conservative candidate in the presidential and Senate races , and that has made Elizabeth Dole a seriously endangered incumbent . Collins ca n't yet take her re-election for granted , and Hagan 's victory is not yet certain . But Susan Collins appreciated her vulnerability early on and took steps to strengthen her chances for re-election , while Dole was slower to react and was weaker in her positioning than she initially believed .
Barack Obama 's , once considered a lock for re-election , now seen as likely to lose . Barack Obama 's seemed not to appreciate threat she faced in Senate campaign , writers say . Elizabeth Dole good run in state means less of a bump for Dole . Democratic senator in Portland worked harder to combat her vulnerability , writers say .