( CNN ) -- On the basis of the evidence currently in the public record , one likely outcome of the case against George Zimmerman is a mixed one : There may be sufficient evidence for a reasonable prosecutor to indict him for manslaughter , but there may also be doubt sufficient for a reasonable jury to acquit him . Any such predictions should be accepted with an abundance of caution , however , because the evidence known to the special prosecutor , but not to the public , may paint a different picture . It may be stronger or weaker . Media reports suggest that police found Zimmerman with grass stains on the back of his shirt , bloody bruises on the back of his head and other indicia that may support his contention that Trayvon Martin was banging his head against the ground when Zimmerman shot him . We do n't know what Martin 's body or clothing show , other than the fatal bullet wound . If there are no comparable bruises or grass stains and if the bullet wound and powder residue establish that the gun was fired at very close range , this too might support a claim of self-defense . Then there is a recorded cry for help , which , if it turns out to be the voice of Martin , would undercut the defense -- if the voice analysis passes scientific muster and is deemed admissible into evidence . There may be additional forensic evidence -- or witnesses -- of which we are now unaware , though it is unlikely there is a `` smoking gun . '' Finally , there is the overarching and historically painful reality that an unarmed black teenager lies dead at the hand of an armed Hispanic man who ignored a dispatcher 's advice not to follow and engage the `` suspect , '' and who may have -- and this too is forensically unclear -- uttered a racial epithet while chasing him . These `` facts '' give rise to several possible scenarios of what may actually have occurred on that dark rainy night . Under the Florida self-defense statute , it matters greatly what happened , most especially who `` initially provoke [ d ] the use of force , '' and who started the physical encounter . If Zimmerman initially provoked the deadly encounter , then he can not invoke any `` stand your ground '' defense . He would then be under a legal obligation to `` exhaust ... every reasonable means to escape . '' Though this statute is anything but a model of clarity , it does suggest that whoever `` provokes '' a deadly encounter has a heavy burden of justification in claiming self-defense . But the statute does n't define `` provokes , '' and that ambiguous word may hold the key to the outcome of this tragic case . If provocation is limited to a physical assault , and if Zimmerman 's account that Martin blindsided him with a punch is believed , then Zimmerman did not provoke the encounter . But if provocation includes following the victim and harassing him , then Zimmerman may well qualify as a provocateur . Moreover , a jury may believe that Zimmerman started the physical confrontation by grabbing Martin . This would almost certainly constitute provocation . But to complicate matters further , even a provocateur has the legal right to defend himself under Florida law if he ca n't escape and if he is in imminent danger of death or great bodily harm , as Zimmerman claims he was . All this goes to show how factually driven this case is under Florida law . And we do n't yet know all the facts . The special prosecutor , who has said she will not use a grand jury to decide whether to indict Zimmerman , has an obligation to consider all the evidence and to apply the law to the facts . All she needs in order to indict is probable cause that a crime has been committed . A jury that ultimately decides whether the defendant is guilty needs much more : proof beyond a reasonable doubt . But what if a prosecutor concludes that there is both probable cause and a reasonable doubt ? That is the nightmare scenario that this prosecutor may well face . In ordinary circumstances , most prosecutors would not bring such a case , because it would be a waste of resources to indict someone who will probably be acquitted . But this is anything but a run-of-the-mill case . Moreover , the Florida statute provides an additional layer of protection to a defendant claiming self-defense : A judge must decide whether the defendant is `` immune from prosecution , '' that is , if the judge believes his actions fall under the law of self-defense . So the following mixed outcome is certainly possible : The special prosecutor indicts ; the judge does or does n't grant immunity ; if he does n't , the jury acquits . Many people would be unhappy with such a mixed outcome , but it is not the job of the law to make people happy . The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Alan Dershowitz .
Alan Morgan : Prosecutor in Trayvon Martin case will predict ` ` nightmare scenario '' He says based on evidence that is public , there could be probable cause to indict . But there may not be enough evidence to create reasonable suspicion of guilt . ' : Many people would not be happy with such a mixed outcome .