( CNN ) -- As so often happens in big international confrontations , Ukraine is devolving into a complicated mess from which no one has yet outlined a reasonable retreat acceptable to all sides . Russia did not push into Crimea just to put its tanks in reverse and go home . The Ukrainian government ca n't very well tolerate a land grab within 400 miles of Kiev . And the big Western powers , including the United States , have raised so many threats and objections , they will look weak , dishonest , or both if nothing is done now . So let 's sort through some options as laid out by many of our expert analysts on CNN . 1 ) Going to the guns : This is a good one to dispense with first , because no one wants it . Ukraine , absent massive and sustained outside help , would be decimated by the Russian bear . The Russians are better trained , better equipped and better funded . By virtue of geography and their superior navy , they would start the fight with Ukraine 60 % encircled by hostile forces . But Russia has reason to keep the pistols holstered , too . Turning eastern Ukraine into a battlefield would disrupt critical industry , agriculture , and oil and gas sales in the region for years . Also , a pitched battle could draw in other players , and then the whole World War III discussion lights up . 2 ) Russia retreats : Unlikely . They did n't steam into Crimea just for a getaway weekend . The Russians have important assets to protect there , and that does not necessarily mean the 60 % of the Crimean population that grew up speaking Russian . The vaunted Black Sea Fleet counts on its Sevastopol port for year-round access ( via Istanbul ) to the warm waters of the Mediterranean . Arguably , the fear of losing that route to an unfriendly Ukrainian government is what drove Russia to take Crimea in the first place . Leaked call raises questions about who was behind sniper attacks in Ukraine . 3 ) Russia retreats with some conditions : More likely . What conditions ? Crimean leaders have already voted to leave Ukraine and rejoin Russia which was home until 1954 , when Russia gave Crimea to Ukraine . Crimean voters will have a chance to ratify or reject this decision in the next couple of weeks , even as Kiev says they have no right to redraw the national borders . In any event , this is one possibility : Crimea becomes a part of Russia , or a semi-independent nation with great affection for Russia ( read : a puppet state ready to do whatever Moscow wants ) . Or Russia gets a permanent agreement to turn Sevastopol into Russian territory , like the arrangement the United States has with Guantanamo Bay in Cuba . No matter how that plays out , Russia denies ever having designs on all of this -- even as the mysterious troops in the peninsula melt away , the rest of the world grumbles , and Ukraine goes back to trying to pay its debts . 4 ) Russia advances : Not content with Crimea and eager to show Kiev just who they are messing with , the Russians storm across the border and take much of eastern Ukraine . No one knows if this is in Russian President Vladimir Putin 's plans , but if it happens ... see option No . 1 . 5 ) The Western world turns on the squeeze play : The White House appears to want a unified effort in which nations all over the globe use their political and economic might to punish Russia and leave the new Ukrainian government triumphant . Problem is , several big countries seem reluctant to take that course , and unless everyone is on the same page , any sanctions would be weakened . And even though it was hit hard in 2008 by the recession , Russia is not Syria , Iran , or North Korea . This is a big nation that is unlikely to buckle quickly to any amount of pressure . U.S. intelligence under fire over Ukraine . The takeaway : There are plenty of other possibilities , but conventional wisdom says these are the most likely options at the moment . The biggest danger ? Everyone is wrong ... and some unforeseen , uncontrolled options arise , making the situation not better , but even worse . MAP : How Ukraine is divided .
Top officials in the West , Russia and China seek an end to the crisis . Possible possible results include everything from war to Russian retreat . The most likely outcome is Russia retreating with China .