The anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain is claiming a “turning point” in public attitudes to leaving the EU and whether or not the U.K. should have a referendum on the deal Theresa May will — probably — strike with Brussels. A new poll conducted for the group by YouGov finds that 44 percent want the public to have “a final say” on Brexit once the negotiations are over, significantly more than the 36 percent who say they should not. What’s more, the same poll finds that, in the event of another referendum, 44 percent say they would vote Remain over 41 percent who would vote Leave. (The rest say they don’t know, or would abstain.) So is this the turning point that Remainers have been waiting for? Has public opinion swung decisively in favor of another vote and staying in the EU? Probably not. For one thing, the 44-36 response was only garnered by asking people, vaguely, whether the public should “have a final say” on whether Britain accepts May’s deal or stays in the EU. When, in the same survey, YouGov asked a more specific question — “Do you think there should or should not be a public vote” — only 39 percent said there should be and 45 percent said there should not. While there is clearly some appetite for the public remaining part of the process, the two different answers to two similar questions reflect how marginal any increase in support for another vote has been. Essentially, the U.K. is still divided right down the middle. More importantly, this is just one poll. When looking for shifts in public mood it is much more instructive to look at several, over a period of time. U.K. polling expert John Curtice has done this for the think tank UK In a Changing Europe. His key finding is that there has indeed been a shift from Leave to Remain — but it is very small. “Across all the readings that have so far been taken this year, only 43% have indicated they think the decision [to leave the EU] was right, while 45% have stated that it was wrong,” according to Curtice. That’s a reversal from the beginning of 2017, when the average findings were 45 percent saying the vote was right and 43 percent wrong. In short, something is happening out there when it comes to public opinion on Brexit, but it’s gradual, marginal and by no means the kind of turning point moment some claim it to be. Essentially, the U.K. is still divided right down the middle. This insight is from POLITICO's Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britain’s decision to leave the EU available to Brexit Pro subscribers. Sign up here.
Remainers are wrong to claim a poll saying UK citizens want a referendum on the Brexit deal is a “turning point”, according to Politico. The poll by YouGov showed 44% wanted a final say compared with 36% who didn’t. But the response was to a question asking if the public should "have a final say". A question asking whether there should be a public vote was supported by just 39% compared with 45% against. Polling expert John Curtice added that while there has been a shift from Leave to Remain it is very small.