Exxon, Sinopec, and BP are all struggling with low oil prices, and are delaying investment. Foreign ventures in the kingdom have been fraught with difficulty in the past. The Saudis may have to offer a cast-iron guarantee of long-term strategic access to sweeten any deal. Yet there are mounting concerns over the fragility of the Saudi state itself as the Middle East is engulfed by a Sunni-Shia battle for dominance, all too like Europe's Thirty Year War. Aramco's oil reserves are largely in the Shia regions of the Eastern Province. This is a combustible zone after the execution of the Shia sheikh Nimr al-Nimr in January for civil protest, prompting outrage and vows for revenge. Prince Mohammad vows to end Aramco’s culture of secrecy, introducing global standards of accounting. Daylight would help to clarify what its revenue really is, and what resources it holds.
Doubts are being cast on Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s ‘2030 Vision,’ which would include the listing of oil giant Aramco, after the market value was claimed to be $250bn to $400bn rather than the $100bn to $150bn claimed by the Saudis. The country’s authorities aim to persuade BP, ExxonMobil and China’s Sinopec to take stakes in the company, as Saudi Arabia tries to move away from its dependence on oil. However, instability in the region where Aramco’s oil reserves are located, combined with low oil prices and anti-Muslim rhetoric coming out of America has cast a pall over a sale that would have been the largest initial public offering in history.