Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. Never mind GDPR. What really matters today is GDP - and whether Britain really slipped to the brink of stagnation at the start of 2018. Updated growth figures from the Office for National Statistics will give a better insight into the state of the UK economy. They will probably confirm that growth fell to a measly 0.1% in January-March, the weakest quarterly growth rate in five years. The data will also give a more detailed breakdown of the economy, showing how business investment and household spending changed. Economists had originally expected that the economy expanded by 0.4% in Q1, so last month’s first estimate of GDP was a nasty shock. It’s possible that the growth rate could be revised up from 0.1% to 0.2% this morning, which would bring some cheer to the markets. Indeed, the Bank of England has pretty much said that it thinks the original data is too gloomy, and that bad wintery weather hit growth. But there are also worries that weak consumer spending, and uncertainty over Brexit is hurting the economy. A weak growth report would also reduces the chance of UK interest rates rising in the next few months, and hit the pound. Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says: Today’s second estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to come in at 0.1% unchanged from the previous estimate and given the poor weather in March it would be a surprise if any of the other indicators were revised higher, though we could see exports revised up to 0.5%. European markets are expected to recover some of yesterday’s losses, as fears over North Korea abate slightly. Overnight, Pyongyang signalled it was still willing to hold a summit with the US - despite Donald Trump cancelling June’s meeting. We also get a new estimate of German business confidence, and new US durable goods sales (machinery, large electrical devices and the like).
UK growth hit a five-year low of 0.1% in Q1 2018 as business investment and the construction sector fell. Office of National Statistics (ONS) Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said the economy performed poorly although oil and gas recovered after the closure of the Forties pipeline, and while poor weather hit construction and shopping, increased energy supply and online sales offset that. Estimates for the figures persuaded the Bank of England not to raise interest rates. Liberal European MP Layla Moran, who wants a second Brexit referendum, blamed the government’s approach to Brexit talks for the slowdown.