Singapore — Seaborne thermal coal market would be well supplied for the next four years amid slowing demand in China and India, Citibank analysts said Wednesday. Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. "We expect the global thermal coal market to gradually shift from deficit to surplus in the next five years, due primarily to declining imports into Europe, China and India, as well as rising exports out of Indonesia and Australia," the analysts said. For 2018, while seaborne coal supply is seen at 956 million mt globally, demand is likely to touch 980 million mt, the analysts said. "2018 is likely seeing maximum deficit of the thermal coal market for the past decade, and likely for the next five years as well," the analysts said. The recent decision by China's NDRC to impose restrictions on seaborne coal imports has left the thermal & metallurgical coal market participants scratching their heads. Our editors examine how China's move has been affecting both the coal markets. China and India are expected to see higher domestic coal supply and lower imports in the coming years, partly as both governments would likely to maintain certain levels of energy independence, the analysts noted. "Thermal coal imports into China and India will therefore likely to be hurt, especially if coal demand starts to wobble in China." Citi forecast global seaborne supply of about 947 million mt for 2022, compared with import demand of 933 million mt. The analysts expect China to import only 95.2 million mt of thermal coal in 2022 steadily decling from the expected 134.7 million mt level in 2018. Meanwhile, Indian imports are being seen at 126.7 million mt in 2022, down from about 157.3 million forecast for 2018. On the supply side, Indonesian thermal coal exports are expected to be at 326 million mt in 2022, down from about 347 million in 2018 and 353.7 million mt in 2020, the analysts said. However, Australian exports are seen rising to 220.7 million mt in 2022, up from 200 million mt in 2017, the analysts added. -- Deepak Kannan, deepak.kannan@spglobal.com -- Edited by Elizabeth Thang, newsdesk@spglobal.com Platts Coal Trader International provides business executives, traders, risk managers and other mining and energy professionals with the full story and latest worldwide coal prices. Click the link below to see how this publication can meet your needs.
The global seaborne coal market is expected to shift to a supply surplus in the next five years due to decreased demand in China, Indonesia and Europe, and increased exports from India and Australia, according to analysis from Citibank. Thermal coal supply is forecast to reach 947 million metric tonnes (mt) in 2022, while import demand will only be 933 million mt. More specifically, Chinese imports are forecast to drop to 95.2 million mt in 2022 from 134.7 million mt this year, while a similar decline to 126.7 million mt from 157.3 million mt will be seen in Indonesia.