Rising demand from the battery industry has changed the types of lithium compounds required, with the market privileging higher grade products. (Adobe Stock Image.) The outlook for lithium continues to shine, with demand from companies that produce batteries to power electric cars, laptops and other high-tech devices, expected to increase 650% by 2027, with overall lithium demand forecast to rise more than threefold over that period, a new study shows. While the next nine years will drain less than 1% of the reserves in the ground, battery makers will need more lithium to support their production, which will boost demand for the key metal almost 16% to reach 1 million tonnes, according to Roskill’s 15th edition market outlook report. Expected supply, however, is far from the astronomical figure forecast by the research firm, with Canada’s Bank of Montreal expecting between 80,000 and 91,500 tonnes of lithium coming from mines by 2025. And BMO’s numbers include recently up-sized expansion plans by the market leaders, Chile’s SQM, China’s Tianqi Lithium, Albemarle and FMC, as well as Nemaska Lithium’s plans to build a spodumene mine in northwestern Quebec, Canada. Wave of much-needed spodumene based supply coming online. (Source: BMO Capital Markets, companies reports.) Roskill estimates that demand from lithium-ion battery manufacturers will grow from 46% last year to 83% by 2027. Use of lithium hydroxide, in turn, is also forecast to become more prevalent, increasing from 25% of lithium compounds used in rechargeable batteries in 2021 to 55% by 2027. The analysts expect the market for battery-grade lithium compounds to remain tight, however, as installing new battery grade capacity has proven complex and forecast demand growth is greatest for these products. In terms of lithium prices, they are expected to peak in 2018, as greater supply availability of mined and refined lithium will enter the market in coming years, causing prices to briefly fall back in 2019, with a floor of $11,000/t battery grade lithium carbonate, Roskill says. Beyond 2021, the research firm expects lithium prices to rise above 2018 levels again, as continued demand growth for battery grade lithium compounds will apply greater demand-side pressure on prices.
Global lithium demand is forecast to rise more than threefold out to 2027, with demand from lithium-ion battery makers due to increase by 650% in the same period, according to the latest market outlook report by consultants Roskill. The firm estimates demand for the metal from lithium-ion battery makers will grow from 46% of overall lithium demand in 2021 to 83% by 2027. The report also predicts the use of lithium hydroxide will rise, from 25% of lithium compounds used in rechargeable batteries in 2017 to 55% by 2027.