Vacant retail spaces in the Tsim Sha Tsui district in Hong Kong. (Photo by Lam Yik Fei/Getty Images) 64 million border-crossings from mainland China during the first half of 2016 have resulted in a growth rate of only 3.4% compared with the figure for the first half of 2015. However, the downturn is confined to Greater China (Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan), which saw 7% fewer visits from mainland China in the January-June 2016 period. The rest of the world still enjoyed a healthy 16% increase, with Thailand, South Korea and Japan witnessing the highest numbers of additional arrivals in absolute numbers. These are the latest statistics based on the research of my institute, the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, which were revealed during the 6th Biannual ITSA conference, organised by ITSA, the International Tourism Studies Association based in Beijing and Washington D.C., and the University of Greenwich from August 17-19 in Greenwich, UK. The dramatic decrease of 9.9% in the first quarter of 2016 for Greater China has been reduced to 3.7% in the second quarter of the year, but at the same time the rest of the world has seen growth figures falling from 22.4% in the first quarter of 2016 to 12.5% in the second quarter. As a result, the global growth rate improved from 2.4% in the first quarter to 4.3% in the second quarter of 2016. As I explained during my presentation of the new data at the ITSA conference, at first sight a growth rate of 3% seems very dramatic, especially after all the double-digit growth rates witnessed during the last decade. However, a closer look reveals that it is mainly the dramatic reduction of the number of mainland Chinese from Guangdong visiting Hong Kong which has led to this slowdown. Access restrictions for residents of the neighboring city Shenzhen resulted in a year-on-year 37% plunge of arrivals from Shenzhen. The growing allure of Seoul and Tokyo as alternative shopping destinations have further accelerated the negative trend seen in the Hong Kong SAR. In July 2016, however, Hong Kong could report a slight increase of 2.2% in mainland arrivals, the first since more than a year. This reflects first of all the fact that July 2015 saw the first dramatic drop of arrival numbers from mainland China for Hong Kong since many years. The less than 4 million arrivals for July 2016 are therefore still way below the 4.3 million arrivals from the mainland in July 2014. Even more importantly, the average spending per visitor in the first half of 2016 dropped from about 9,000 HKD (app. $1,160) two years ago to little more than 7,100 HKD (app. $915), with less shopping on luxury goods and lower hotel rates to blame. Notably, the second quarter of 2016 was the first time that less than half of all outbound trips were made within Greater China, with 15.8 million arrivals to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, but 18 million arrivals seen in the rest of the world. For the entire first half of 2016, however, Greater China is still slightly ahead with 32.3 million arrivals from mainland China, compared with the 31.7 million seen in the rest of the world. Nevertheless, COTRI expects 2016 to be the first year which sees the market share of Greater China dropping below the 50% level. Even taking into account the current anxiety surrounding terrorist attacks in a number of European countries, as well as in Thailand, it can be forecasted that the total number of outbound trips in the coming months will not be reduced, but will rather lead to a shift away from places considered unsafe to supposedly safer, alternative destinations such as Italy, Eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand.
Chinese tourists are increasingly heading to Australia, New Zealand, Eastern Europe and Italy, destinations regarded as safe, according to the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. Border crossings from mainland China increased 3.4% in H1 2016 to 64 million. Trips to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan fell 7%, while Thailand, South Korea and Japan saw gains of 16%.