Nigel Farage , pictured after Reckless 's defection to Ukip , is likely to look a little less smug after it was revealed the Rochester and Strood MP is facing an uphill struggle to keep his seat . The Tory MP who defected to Ukip to trigger the Rochester and Strood by-election is on course to lose the seat at the General Election . According to the latest secret polling bombshell to hit Nigel Farage ’ s party , Mark Reckless , who became Ukip ’ s second MP last November , faces an uphill battle to hold on to his 2,920 majority on May 7 . The disclosure comes after Ukip was thrown into turmoil by last week ’ s leak to The Mail on Sunday of a survey showing Mr Farage trailing the Tories in his target seat of Thanet South . The private Rochester data is understood to put Mr Reckless narrowly behind the Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst , who he defeated in November ’ s by-election . When Mr Reckless stood for the Tories at the 2010 Election he had a majority of just under 10,000 votes . As with the Thanet South poll , the party has decided against publicising the figures in case supporters are demoralised . A senior Ukip source said : ‘ It is not looking easy for Mark , but we are hopeful the figures are misleading. ’ However , another source added : ‘ We aren ’ t that bothered because Reckless isn ’ t particularly popular. ’ Some analysts think Ukip could be left with just one MP – Douglas Carswell , who won Clacton in a byelection with a 12,000 majority . Last night Ukip denied the party had itself commissioned polling in Rochester but said : ‘ We always knew it would be a tough fight. ’ Ukip convert Mark Reckless faces an uphill battle to hold on to his 2,920 majority in Rochester and Strood .
Reckless ' by-election majority of 2,920 in Rochester and Strood my be lost . I think the Tories are going to lose a lot more seats than they won last time, but it will not necessarily mean that Labour win them all back. Top Ukip source said : ‘ It is not looking easy for Mark , but we are hopeful '