Polls yesterday suggested the election will be too close to call – with the Tories narrowly ahead in two , while another showed Labour edging in front . The news came as an American pollster – who predicted the results of the 2008 US presidential election almost exactly – concluded that both main parties will struggle to cobble together any kind of workable majority . The latest ICM poll for the Guardian had the Tories ahead on 34 per cent – down five points from a week ago . Labour were down one point on 32 per cent . Nate Silver , who correctly predicted the winner in 49 of 50 US states in 2008 , believes that neither Labour or the Tories will be unable to get enough support together for a majority government . Meanwhile a new Populus poll found Labour unchanged on 34 per cent , while the Tories were down one , on 32 per cent . In a third poll , Lord Ashcroft found a Tory lead of four points – with the party on 34 per cent compared to Labour 's 30 per cent . Pollster Nate Silver , who correctly called the winner in 49 of 50 US states in 2008 , yesterday predicted a hung parliament after May 7 with the Tories winning 283 seats and Labour 274 . This means that both David Cameron and Ed Miliband could find it almost impossible to secure enough support from other parties for a working majority – let alone rule on their own . Paddy Power said Mr Miliband is now more likely than Mr Cameron to be prime minister after the election . Mr Silver said Labour , who have ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP , would also be short of a majority even with the help of the Scottish Nationalists , whom he expects to gain 42 seats . Mr Silver said that even if the Tories join forces with the Lib Dems – who he believes will win 27 seats – they would still be 13 short of the 323 MPs needed for a majority . With Ukip expected to have only one MP in the projection , Nigel Farage would not be able to offer much help – and even with the support of eight Democratic Unionist Party MPs from Northern Ireland , Mr Cameron could not achieve a majority . Mr Silver said Labour , which has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP , would also be short of a majority even with the help of the Scottish Nationalists , who he predicted will gain 42 seats . That would give Mr Miliband 316 seats – seven short of a majority . He would then have to try to gain support from smaller parties such as Plaid Cymru , the Greens and Northern Ireland 's SDLP – but as they are projected to win only six seats between them , Labour would still be one short of the necessary 323 .
Nate Silver predicts the Tory will win 283 seats and Labour 274 . Means both David Cameron or Ed Miliband could find it all but impossible to cobble together a workable coalition – let alone rule on their own . Respected US pollster predicted results of 2008 US election almost exactly .