Global warming has n't happened as fast as expected , according to a new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records . The research claims that natural variability in surface temperatures over the course of a decade can account for increases and dips in warming rates . But it adds that these so-called 'climate wiggles ' could also , in the future , cause our planet to warm up much faster than anticipated . Scroll down for video . The study compared its results to the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) . Projected temperature change from 2081-2100 by the IPCC are pictured here . The latest study , however , says this climate model may be wrong . The study compared its results to the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) . 'Based on our analysis , a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely , at least for now , ' said Patrick Brown , a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University . 'But this could change . ' The Duke-led study says that variability is caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere , and other natural factors . They claim these 'wiggles ' can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade , and exaggerate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations . If not properly explained and accounted for , they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends . Summary of projected changes in crop yields in a previous IPCC report . Because 'climate wiggles ' were not accounted for , the Duke University researchers say the report may have been an over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends . The research , uses observed data , rather than the more commonly used climate models , to estimate decade-to-decade variability . 'At any given time , we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability , ' said Wenhong Li , assistant professor of climate at Duke , who conducted the study with Brown . Infectious diseases , such as Ebola and West Nile virus , will rapidly spread to new areas as a result of global warming . This is according to zoologist , Professor Daniel Brooks , who warns humans can expect to face new illnesses as climate change brings crops , livestock , and humans into contact with pathogens . Professor Brooks says it will be 'the death of a thousand cuts ' with society unable to keep up with the speed of disease as it spreads around the world . 'It 's not that there 's going to be one `` Andromeda Strain '' that will wipe everybody out on the planet , ' Professor Brooks said , referring to the 1971 science fiction film about a deadly pathogen . 'There are going to be a lot of localised outbreaks that put a lot of pressure on our medical and veterinary health systems . ' In his research , Professor Brooks has focused primarily on parasites in the tropics , while his colleague , Professor Eric Hoberg , has worked in Arctic regions . Each has observed the arrival of species that had n't previously lived in that area and the departure of others , said Professor Brooks , who is affiliated with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln . The team examined whether climate models , such as those used by the IPCC , accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming . To test these , created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years . 'By comparing our model against theirs , we found that climate models largely get the 'big picture ' right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles , ' Brown said . 'Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000 , as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013 . ' 'Statistically , it 's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming , like the one we saw at the start of this century , would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections , ' Brown said . 'Hiatus periods of 11 years or longer are more likely to occur under a middle-of-the-road scenario . ' Under the IPCC 's middle-of-the-road scenario , there was a 70 per cent likelihood that at least one hiatus lasting 11 years or longer would occur between 1993 and 2050 , Brown said . 'That matches up well with what we 're seeing . ' There 's no guarantee , however , that this rate of warming will remain steady in coming years , Li stressed . 'Our analysis clearly shows that we should n't expect the observed rates of warming to be constant . They can and do change . ' The IPCC has previously warmed that global warming is impacting 'all continents and across the oceans ' . This map details some of the predicted affects of climate change in different continents . However the latest study claims that the worst-case scenario is unlikely to take place .
Duke University study looked at the start of this century of temperature records . It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC . Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming . These 'climate wiggles ' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report .