( CNN ) North Korea is in the headlines again . According to a Wall Street Journal report Thursday , Chinese nuclear experts have told the United States that Pyongyang may already have as many as 20 nuclear warheads . And while that number may seem stunning , it is actually only part of a troubling story . The key takeaway from the latest assessment of North Korea 's nuclear capability is not in the actual number of warheads , but the type of warhead , as this gives a better clue to the future of the country 's weapons capabilities . True , the reported Chinese estimate of 20 warheads is large enough to constitute a nuclear `` arsenal . '' However , this number is not actually significantly larger than conventional open source estimates of 10 to 15 warheads previously provided by U.S. and other experts . The big takeaway from the report is instead the prediction that North Korea could be in a position to double its arsenal by next year with weapons-grade uranium . If that assessment is correct , and Pyongyang can indeed boost its nuclear stockpile by the end of this year to around 40 warheads by utilizing highly-enriched weapons-grade uranium , then the plutonium program that the U.S. and members of the Six-Party talks had been negotiating over this past quarter century would suddenly seem trivial . After all , the plutonium program might be capable of spitting out maybe a few weapons worth of plutonium annually . This news could be much more serious . Why ? For a start , it would mean that North Korea 's activities would undoubtedly meet the definition , if it had not already , of a runaway nuclear weapons program , with the potential to be fueled by a large supply of raw uranium buried in North Korea 's mines . In addition , while the plutonium program at Yongbyon has a clear and detectable profile , the thousands of centrifuges that spin in a uranium-based program have no detectable heat signature or topographic profile , meaning you could store the stuff not just in the labyrinth of underground tunnels in North Korea , undetectable from the sky , but in any large warehouse . Washington and Seoul have tended to have a policy that leans toward downplaying North Korean threats , at least when there is n't a full-fledged crisis going on . For example , the United States downplayed North Korea 's missile threat until the country successfully put a satellite into orbit in December 2012 . And up until 2006 , no one thought the Kim regime would actually dare undertake a nuclear test . These new estimates could therefore be a timely reminder that we may have downplayed the threat North Korea poses once again . But Thursday 's report is n't the only troubling information we have had recently . Just as concerning is the NORAD commander 's assessment on North Korea 's missile capabilities . On April 7 , Adm. Bill Gortney said during a press briefing that the Defense Department believed Pyongyang 's KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile ( ICBM ) is operational , with a warhead capacity . This statement is troubling for two reasons . First , Gortney 's statement , when combined with the latest Chinese assessment , implies that North Korea now not only has nuclear weapons , but the ability to miniaturize such weapons for a warhead that could be placed atop a missile with range rings extending to the U.S. mainland . Second , and just as importantly , Pyongyang 's advances in mobile ICBM capabilities could end up undermining the state of stable deterrence that currently exists on the Korean Peninsula . Put simply , these capabilities could give North Korea confidence that it is immune from any U.S. counterstrikes . And if that ends up being the case , the United States could find itself with a renewed headache in Asia -- and its carefully calibrated plans for its pivot to the region crumbling .
Report says North Korea may have 20 nuclear warheads . Victor Cha : Washington has tended to downplay North Korean threats .