Welsh independence
Welsh independence () is a political movement supporting Wales leaving the United Kingdom (UK) to become an independent sovereign state.   

Wales was conquered by Edward I of England during the 13th century, who introduced the royal ordinance the Statute of Rhuddlan in 1284, causing Wales to lose its de facto independence and formed the constitutional basis for it as a principality in the "Realm of England". The Laws in Wales Acts 1535 and 1542 applied English law to Wales and united the principality and the March which effectively ended the principality and incorporated Wales into England. The Wales and Berwick Act 1746 defined "England" to include Wales until the Welsh Language Act 1967 which separated Wales from England within the sovereign state of the UK. Wales officially dropped the title of principality in 2011 in the international community, although technically had not been a principality since 1284-1542 .  

The modern Welsh independence movement emerged during the mid-19th century. In the 21st century the political parties Plaid Cymru, Propel, Gwlad, and the Wales Green Party support Welsh independence, as does the non-partisan YesCymru campaign.

History

Middle Ages

Unified Kingdoms of Wales: 1055 

Wales became distinct culturally and politically from other Brythonic groups during the Early Middle Ages. Wales first appeared as a unified independent country in 1055 under the leadership of the only King of Wales to have controlled all the territories of Wales, Gruffydd ap Llywelyn. Gruffydd ap Llywelyn was King of Gwynedd until he defeated his rival, Gruffydd ap Rhydderch in battle and recaptured the Kingdom of Deheubarth in 1055 to become King of Wales. Until 1063, there were no battles within Wales.

Battling the Anglo-Normans 1066-1100 
Following this brief period as a united Wales, Wales reverted to multiple independent Welsh kingdoms. Following the Norman conquest of England in 1066, the Normans invaded Wales and fleetingly established control over much of the country. However, by 1100 Welsh resistance had reversed most of these gains; the Anglo-Normans maintained control of lowland Gwent, Glamorgan, Gower, and Pembroke, regions which experienced considerable Anglo-Norman colonisation, while the contested border region between the Welsh princes and Anglo-Norman barons became known as the Welsh Marches.

Llywelyn the Great & Llywelyn the Last 
In 1200 Llywelyn ap Iorwerth (Llywelyn the Great) became King of Gwynedd and agreed a treaty of peace with King John of England, marrying his illegitimate daughter Joan. 1208 Llywelyn claimed the Kingdom of Powys after the arrest of Gwenwynwyn ap Owain. Powys was left vulnerable following Gwenwynwyn's arrest by King John, who disapproved of his attacks on Marcher Lords of the South. Although John invaded parts of Gwynedd in 1211, these attacks were rebuffed in 1212 by Llywelyn and in 1215 the Magna Carta included rights of Llywelyn to Wales and the release of his illegitimate son Gruffydd. After the death of John in 1218, Llywelyn and King Henry II agreed the treaty of Worcester which again confirmed Llywelyn's right to Wales until his death in 1240. Following the deaths of Llywelyn's two sons Dafydd and Gruffydd, Llywelyn the Great's grandson, Llywelyn ap Gruffydd (Llywelyn the Last) rose to power. Llywelyn the Last retained his rights to Wales in agreement with King Henry in the treaty of Montgomery in 1267. Henry's successor, Edward I disapproved of Llywelyn's alliance with Simon de Montfort, who revolted along with other barons against the English king in the second barons war of 1264-1267. In 1276, Edward's army forced Llywelyn into an agreement which saw Llywelyn withdraw his powers to gwynedd only. In 1282 whilst attempting to gather support in Cilmeri near Builth Wells, Llywelyn was killed by one of Edward's soldiers. Llywelyn's brother, Dafydd ap Gruffydd briefly led a force in Wales, but was captured and later hung drawn and quartered by Edward, thus ending Welsh independence.

Owain Glyndwr 1400-1415 
The Welsh rebelled against English rule several times in the following centuries. The last, and most significant, revolt was the Glyndŵr Rising of 1400–1415, which briefly restored independence. Owain Glyndwr held the first Senedd in Machynlleth in 1404 where he was proclaimed Prince of Wales and a second Senedd in 1405 in Harlech. Following the eventual defeat of the Glyndwr rebellion and brief period it took almost 600 years until the next Senedd in 1999 in Cardiff Bay. The banner of Owain Glyndŵr is still used as a symbol of independence today.

Incorporation into England 
In the 16th century, the English king Henry VIII (who belonged to the Tudor dynasty, a royal house of Welsh origin), passed the Laws in Wales Acts, which incorporated Wales fully into the Kingdom of England. These parliamentary measures, often referred to as the 'Acts of Union’, were passed by the parliament of England, a body which wholly lacked representatives from within Wales. The union offered new opportunities to the Welsh gentry, who could now become justices of the peace and members of Parliament at Westminster.

19th century
The belief that Wales should form an independent nation state returned in the mid 19th century (the first recorded use of the Welsh word for nationalism, cenedlaetholdeb, is from 1858).  By 1886 Cymru Fydd ('The Wales to Come') had been founded, its main leaders being David Lloyd George (later Prime Minister), J. E. Lloyd, O. M. Edwards, T. E. Ellis (leader, MP for Merioneth, 1886–1899), the historian J. E. Lloyd and Beriah Gwynfe Evans. Its main objective was to gain self-government for Wales.

The Sunday Closing (Wales) Act 1881 was the first legislation to acknowledge that Wales had a separate politico-legal character from the rest of the English state. In 1886 Joseph Chamberlain proposed "Home Rule All Round" the United Kingdom, and in the same year the Cymru Fydd (Young Wales) movement was founded to further the cause. Their goal was a devolved assembly rather than a fully independent state, and the movement collapsed in 1896 amid personal rivalries and rifts between Liberal representatives such as David Alfred Thomas.

20th century
There was little mainstream political interest in Home Rule following the First World War. The focus of independence moved to the newly founded political party, Plaid Cymru, from 1925, although it took until the late 1960s for Plaid to make its first electoral breakthroughs. Many bodies were decentralized, however, including:
 1907 - the Welsh Education Board
 1911 - the Welsh Insurance Commission
 1919 - a Welsh Department of the Ministry of Agriculture
 1919 - the Welsh Board of Health
 1920 - the Church in Wales was disestablished and separated from the Church of England through the Welsh Church Act 1914
The early part of the century also saw the expansion of the federal University of Wales and the establishment of the National Library and National Museums. By 1945 there were 15 Government departments established in Wales.

The declaration of Cardiff as the capital of Wales in 1955, the Labour Party's 1959 commitment to appoint a Secretary of State for Wales, the creation of the Welsh Office in 1965, and the repeal of the Wales and Berwick Act 1746 two years later seemed to demonstrate a growing nationalist impetus. However, the heavy defeat for a proposed Welsh Assembly offered by Labour in the 1979 devolution referendum "suggested that the vast majority of the inhabitants of Wales had no desire to see their country having a national future".

On 1 July 1955 a conference of all parties called at Llandrindod by the New Wales Union (Undeb Cymru Fydd) to consider a national petition for the campaign for a Parliament for Wales. The main leader was Megan Lloyd George, the daughter of David Lloyd George, T. I. Ellis, and Sir Ifan ab Owen Edwards. According to the historian Dr William Richard Philip George, "Megan was responsible for removing much prejudice against the idea of a parliament for Wales". She later presented the petition with 250,000 signatures to the British government in April 1956.

In the 1980s, economic restructuring and Thatcherite market reforms brought social dislocation to parts of Wales, which had formerly been described as having "the largest public sector west of the Iron Curtain". A succession of non-Welsh Conservative Secretaries of State after 1987 was portrayed by opponents as 'colonial' and indicative of a 'democratic deficit'. In the early 1990s, Labour became committed to devolution to both Scotland and Wales, and in 1997 it was elected with a mandate to hold referendums on a Scottish Parliament and a Welsh Assembly.

The proposed assembly won a narrow majority in the 1997 referendum. The political climate was very different from that of 1979, with a new generation of Welsh MPs in Westminster and a broad consensus on the previously divisive issue of the Welsh language. However, political commentator Denis Balsom notes public sentiment that devolution may have been "unnecessary" following the election of a 'progressive' Labour government. These conflicting sentiments were reflected in the relatively low turnout at the referendum and the narrowness of the victory for devolution campaigners.

21st century
Since 1997, there has been evidence of increased support for, and trust in, the Senedd and greater support for it to receive enhanced powers, as evidenced by the 63.49% "Yes" vote in the 2011 referendum.

It was suggested before the UK's referendum on European Union membership that Wales might vote by a majority for Remain while the UK as a whole voted for Leave, which would increase support for independence. However, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted for Remain, Wales as a whole voted by a majority for Leave, with majorities for Leave in all but five of its council areas, the Remain majorities being in Cardiff, Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan and the Welsh-speaking heartlands, Gwynedd and Ceredigion.

Following the announcement in 2017 of plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence, Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said there needed to be a national debate on Welsh independence.

In July 2020, Plaid brought forward a motion to discuss a referendum on Welsh independence, but it was rejected by 43 votes to 9. On 11 December, Plaid leader Adam Price stated that if his party won a majority at the 2021 Senedd election, an independence referendum would be held in its first term in office. At Plaid's special conference on independence, held on 13 February 2021, party members formally approving Price's pledge to hold a referendum in or before 2026. In addition to Plaid, three other parties stood on a pro-independence platform at the Senedd election: the Wales Green Party, Gwlad and Propel.

In January 2021, Guto Harri, who was Boris Johnson's communications chief when the latter was Mayor of London, wrote in The Sunday Times that "the idea of independence is taking off, with new recruits from very different backgrounds." He went on to say, "Brexiteers will hate me for saying this, but it is clear that some have contributed more to the cause of Welsh independence than my late father. The prospect of being attached to a leftover English rump of the UK, if Scotland and Northern Ireland head off, seems bleak to many people. And having argued against pooling sovereignty with our neighbours to facilitate trade and maximise our influence, Brexiteers should not be surprised if the same logic is applied in a different setting." Richard Wyn Jones, director of the Welsh governance centre at Cardiff University, claimed that the cause of independence in Wales would be boosted significantly if Scotland chose independence first.

An open letter, signed by a number of groups who advocate for Welsh independence (including Welsh Football Fans for Independence, AUOBCymru and members of the former central committee of YesCymru), was sent to Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford in September 2021. Written in response to Drakeford's proposed constitutional commission, it stated that "Wales needs an independence commission, not one to salvage the union." The following month, the Independent Constitutional Commission was launched by the Welsh Labour government. Led by Professor Laura McAllister and former Archbishop of Wales, Rowan Williams, it will examine Wales' future relationship with the rest of the UK and will consider Welsh independence as well. Plaid Cymru called the commission the "most wide-ranging national conversation about Wales' future".

Support

Prior to 2014, numerous previous surveys yielded quite widely differing results, often with small sample sizes, poor methodology, differing question types and often without publishing their data sets. These polls often found that between 10 and 20% of Welsh people desire independence from the United Kingdom. A 2001 survey for the Institute of Welsh Affairs found that 11% of people polled favoured independence. A 2007 survey by the Institute of Welsh Politics at the University of Wales found that 12% of those questioned supported independence, down slightly from 14% in 1997. A poll taken by BBC Wales/Newsnight in 2007 found that 20% of Welsh questioned favoured independence. A 2006 poll taken by Wales on Sunday found the number to be as high as 52%, although the poll mostly interviewed people in North Wales and West Wales where support for independence was historically strongest.

A YouGov/ITV Wales poll in February 2012, showed that only 10% of Welsh voters would support independence even if Scotland became independent of the British state, with three constituent countries, the same level of support as polls have shown with the British state composing four constituent countries. However, a YouGov/ITV Wales Poll in September 2014, showed a marked increase in support for Welsh independence having risen to 17%, potentially due to the proximity to the Scottish Independence referendum, which was due to be held the week after the poll.

In February 2014, an ICM poll for BBC Wales on the range of devolution options found that 5% chose Independence from the options. Following the referendum on Scottish independence, a September 2014 poll conducted by the same company again on all 5 options of devolution, found that this figure was 3%, with the largest percentage of people choosing the 'More Powers' for the assembly option. The same poll found that there had been a significant increase in support for more powers for the Welsh Government.

Since 2014, polls have used similar methodology, often using the pollster YouGov, and have a relatively consistent question style with sample sizes >1000.

A poll commissioned by YesCymru in May 2017 discovered the following: of the major political parties in Wales, Labour voters and Plaid Cymru voters, as well as those aged 18–49, were most likely to vote for independence, while UKIP and Conservative voters were least likely. It also found that  of Plaid Cymru voters favoured independence, and that Welsh speakers were three times more likely to favour independence.

On 11 May 2019, a march for Welsh independence was organised by AUOB Cymru in Cardiff, with an estimated 3,000 in attendance. On 27 July 2019, AUOB organised an independence march in Caernarfon. Estimates put the attendance at about 8,000. On 7 September 2019, a third AUOB Cymru was held in Merthyr Tydfil and attracted a crowd of 5,200.

On 24 October 2020, Wales Green Party members voted at their party conference that the party would support Welsh independence in the event of a referendum being held on whether or not Wales should become independent from the United Kingdom.

In a YouGov poll in November 2020, 33% said they would support Welsh independence, the highest ever level of support. Support rose to a new level in a Savanta ComRes poll conducted from 18-22 February 2021 and published by ITV News on 4 March 2021. This one found that 39% of Welsh voters would vote Yes for independence, once 'Don't Knows' are excluded.

Parties in favour of independence

Support for independence is found in political parties on both the right and left of Welsh politics:

 Cymru Sovereign
 Gwlad
 Plaid Cymru
 Wales Green Party (in the event a referendum is held on Welsh independence. The party does not actively campaign for independence but has stated it would do so if a referendum was called on the matter)
 Propel

Opposition

Parties in favour of the Union 
The Conservative and Unionist Party, Labour Party and Liberal Democrats all oppose Welsh independence. 

Support for the Union is found in political parties on both the right and left of Welsh politics:

 Welsh Conservatives
 Welsh Labour
 Welsh Liberal Democrats
 Liberal Party
 UK Independence Party
 Reform UK
 British National Party
 Co-operative Party
 Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party
 Social Democratic Party
 Socialist Party Wales
 Christian Party

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Yes/No Independence polls

"0-10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)

Devolution extent polls

Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales

See also
Culture of Wales
History of Wales
Politics of Wales
Welsh nationalism
Free Wales Army, former nationalist movement
Meibion Glyndŵr, former nationalist movement
Welsh Devolution

References

External links

Celtic nationalism
Separatism in the United Kingdom
Government of Wales
Politics of Wales
Welsh nationalism