The model is still really wonky.

Take Brighton(H) for example. Coincidentally enough, both Tottenham and Arsenal have Brighton at Home, yet Tottenham have a better "chance" of winning (69-11-20 vs 67-13-20 (W/L/D). We've been in better form, have a far superior home record (13 points better, albeit with 2 games over them) and are currently in better form (4W-1D-1L vs 2W-1D-3L).

I admit we're not brilliant away from home, but I have doubts in a model which seemingly doesn't even take form into account.