. for the fifa world cup , paul the octopus has been predicting the winner of each match with amazing success . it is rumored that in a match between 2 teams a and b , paul picks a with the same probability as a ’ s chances of winning . let ’ s assume such rumors to be true and that in a match between ghana and bolivia ; ghana the stronger team has a probability of 2 / 3 of winning the game . what is the probability that paul will correctly pick the winner of the ghana - bolivia game ?