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The manifestation of true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a subject of much speculation and debate among experts in the field. Here are some key points to consider:

Current State: As of my last update, we have systems that can perform specific tasks at or beyond human levels (narrow or weak AI), but they do not possess the broad cognitive abilities of AGI, which would include the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at human-like proficiency.

Predictions:

Optimistic Views: Some experts believe AGI could emerge within the next couple of decades. For instance, Ray Kurzweil has predicted AGI by around 2045, aligning with his concept of the technological singularity.

Cautious Views: Others argue it might take much longer due to the complexity of human cognition, the need for breakthroughs in areas like machine learning, ethics, and safety, or unforeseen challenges in development.

Challenges: 

Technical: Creating an AI that can handle abstract reasoning, creativity, and emotional intelligence like humans is still beyond our current capabilities.

Ethical and Regulatory: There's a significant concern about the control, safety, and ethical implications of AGI, which could slow down its development or change how it manifests.

Signs of AGI: True AGI would demonstrate:

Generalization: Ability to learn from one domain and apply that learning to another without specific retraining.

Autonomy: Operating independently in complex environments with minimal or no human oversight.

Understanding: Comprehending and using language, reasoning, and learning at a human-like level across diverse contexts.

Given these considerations, while we can see incremental progress in AI, stating exactly when AGI will "truly be manifest" is speculative. It depends on not just technological advancements but also on societal acceptance, regulatory frameworks, and perhaps even philosophical consensus on what constitutes "true" AGI.

If you're interested in updates or specific developments since my last update, I'd need to search for more recent information. Would you like me to do that?
#Grok