⛏️ Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 Points 
(x1.75 | 1 unit) #MileHighBasketball

COLLAB W/@WizBetz 🧙‍♂️

Are we seriously fading Jokic today?! Against Vuc?!

Firstly, the Denver Nuggets are +5.9 ATS after a loss, which means they are getting almost 6 more PTS of spread after losing! This is very important to our read!

Jokic has been tearing apart, averaging 30 PPG this season, and going over this line in 49% of the games, so why are we taking his under?!

So, the Chicago Bulls defense is the third that allows the most points per game to Centers, allowing an average of 25.8 PPG, showing us that Vucevic can't defend almost. In some cases, this is true, but Vuc always makes things harder for Jokic. 
Since Jokic joined the league, there have been 13 clashes between them, but Jokic only covered this line once, back in 2017, and he's averaging 15.8 PPG against Vuc. Since the 2020-21, season where Jokic won his 1st MVP, he can consider his "evolution" season, he's only averaging 17.2 PPG in 6 Games.

Returning to the 1st topic, the Denver Nuggets are among the hottest teams in the league, in January they are 10-4, and in games where they are winning, they are averaging 17.7 PTS of advantage over their opponents. 
Today's spread is sitting at -7.5 for the Nuggets, so the Bookies are expecting the Nuggets to win with some ease, if we add the scenario they are coming from a loss they should be around a blowout scenario today against the Bulls.

This season, in games where the Nuggets have won by good margins, Jokic gets his triple-double and sits the WHOLE 4TH Quarter, giving him an average of "only" 31 MPG. 
So this season, in wins where Jokic plays 31- Minutes he was only able to cover that line in one game, against the Suns, and he's averaging only 22.4 PPG.

Since the Bulls are the second worst defense in the league, everyone can score and the fact they push the tempo high, being the 3rd team that plays in the highest pace, the Denver can easily punish them with Jokic court vision in fast breaks with an open court.

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