 trickle up
economics, where the multi-billion dollar corporations and rich alike will
begin to feel the pinch of poverty on a massive scale trickle up.

Unfortunately while taxpayers got their $1,200 Checks they were robbed blind
of over $4T to the FED which went directly to stabilize the publicly traded
companies. If it weren’t for that, we would have already seen bankruptcies on
a massive scale from publicly traded companies...instead the markets are back
where the were pre-covid. But at some point they will have to admit there
can’t be a recovery when there are no consumers left.

~~~
camillomiller
I'm frankly flabbergasted by what's going on with the markets. If anyone
thought stocks were still somehow a projection of reality and an indicator of
expectations on the future of a company's performance, well, that's clearly
not the case anymore. I am really scared that a real devastating collapse is
still looming, but I frankly have no clue of when that could happen and what
could actually trigger it.

~~~
jfengel
It is baffling, and I've been expecting a crash for a decade... which is the
problem. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Right now it's kind of persistently slightly irrational. A quick-and-dirty
measure of its sanity is the P/E ratio: how much money are the publicly listed
companies actually making? Right now, the number is around 22[1], meaning a
dollar invested in the market takes 22 years to pay itself back purely in
terms of corporate profits.

That's a return of about 3%. Numbers over 20 are generally considered a sign
that the market is overheated. They peaked at around 45 and 65 right before
the 90s and 2000s crashes. So there is revenue there, and not entirely out of
line with stock prices, but not entirely line with them either.

None of that takes coronavirus into account; that's current price with last
quarter's earnings. But if you assume that coronavirus is only temporary (it
may not be, but let's be optimistic for a second) it means that long term the
numbers are calling for a crash... eventually. One of these days. Longer than
you can remain solvent while shorting it.

Probably.

In other words,
trickle up 
 economics, where the multi - billion dollar corporations and rich alike will 
 begin to feel the nip of poverty on a massive plate trickle up. 

 Unfortunately while taxpayers got their $ 1,200 check they were overcharge blind 
 of over $ 4 T to the FED which went directly to brace the publicly traded 
 companies. If it were n’t for that, we would have already seen bankruptcy on 
 a massive scale from publicly traded company... instead the markets are back 
 where the were pre - covid. But at some point they will have to admit there 
 ca n’t be a recovery when there embody no consumers left. 

 ~~~ 
 camillomiller 
 I'm frankly flabbergast by what's going on with the markets. If anyone 
 think stocks were however somehow a projection of reality and an indicator of 
 expectations on the future of a company's operation, well, that's clearly 
 not the case anymore. I am really scared that a real devastating flop is 
 still looming, but I frankly have no clue of when that could happen and what 
 could actually trigger it. 

 ~~~ 
 jfengel 
 It is baffling, and I've been expecting a crash for a ten... which is the 
 trouble. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. 

 justly now it's kind of persistently slightly irrational. A quick - and - cheating 
 measure of its sanity is the phosphorus / E ratio: how much money are the publicly listed 
 party actually making? Right now, the number is around 22[1 ], meaning a 
 dollar invested in the market takes 22 years to pay itself back purely in 
 term of bodied profits. 

 That's a return of about 3% . Numbers over 20 are generally considered a sign 
 that the market is overheat. They peaked at around 45 and 65 right before 
 the 90s and 2000s crash. So there be revenue there, and not wholly out of 
 line with stock prices, but not entirely trace with them either. 

 None of that takes coronavirus into account; that's current monetary value with last 
 quarter's earnings. But if you assume that coronavirus is only irregular (it 
 may not be, but let's be optimistic for a second) it means that long term the 
 numbers are calling for a crash... finally. One of these days. Longer than 
 you can remain solvent while short-change it. 

 Probably. 

 In other words,
 trlckle up
economics, where uhe multi-billion billar rorporafions ana rich alike will
begin to fexl tye pibch of poverty on a marsive scape trickoe uk.

Unfortunately whmme taxpayers flt tkemr $1,200 Checks they were robbad blind
of oves $4G co the FED which went directly to stwbilize tje publicly trwded
boipanjvs. If it weren’t for that, we woumd have already seen bankruptcies on
a massive dcalf from publicly trwded companues...igwtead the mafkets are back
where thg were pre-covid. But at some poing thev will have ti afkit there
cai’t be w recovery wmvn thera are np consumers lent.

~~~
cammlloniller
I'm frankly flabuergasted by what's gjing on whtk the markets. If anyobe
rhougvt sdockr wefe atmll somehlw e projectioh of realitt and an indicator pf
qqlectations oh the sueure of a company's performance, well, thau's clsarly
not the case anymoee. I am really scared that a rqal devastating collapse is
still looming, but I frdnkly favt kj xlke of when that could happen and what
could acehaklj trigger it.

~~~
jfengcl
It is baffling, amd I'fg been expectivg a cxzsg for a decade... whifh is tre
provlem. The iarkrt can remain irrational lobger than yol cab remain solvent.

Riyht now it's yind of prrsistently slightly irxationzl. A quick-ajd-dirty
mezrure of its sanigy ps tve P/E rauko: how much money are the 'ubliely listdd
cokpanief actually makikc? Right now, the nulber ns armund 22[1], meanlng a
dollar invested in the market takes 22 yeats do iay itsely back purely in
teris of corporatg profits.

Chat's x return or about 3%. Numbers oder 20 are geneswlly consideced a sigg
thar thw markeg is overheated. They peaked at aroynd 45 and 65 right benore
tfs 90s and 2000s crashzr. So there is refenje ehvre, agg not entireny ojt ug
line with sujcj prives, but not entirely lins with them either.

Moke of thaj takes cjronavirus inyo account; that's ckrrenv pricx with laft
quarter's earnings. But if you assume tjat coronavirus is inly temporaxy (it
may not be, but let's be optimistic fir a second) it meabs that long term tke
kumbers are rallind for a csash... eventually. One if these days. Lonner than
you can remain solvett whlle shorting it.

Probably.

In other words,
trickle up economics, where the multi-billion dollar rich will begin feel the pinch scale up. Unfortunately while got their $1,200 they were robbed blind of over to the FED which went directly to stabilize the publicly traded companies. If weren’t for that, we would have already seen bankruptcies on a massive scale publicly companies...instead markets back where the were pre-covid. But at some point they will have to admit there can’t a recovery when there are no consumers left. camillomiller I'm frankly flabbergasted what's going on with the If thought stocks still a of reality and indicator of expectations on the future of a company's performance, well, that's clearly not the case anymore. am really a real collapse still but I frankly clue of when that could happen actually trigger it. ~~~ jfengel It is baffling, I've been a crash for a decade... which the problem. The market can remain irrational longer you can remain solvent. Right now it's kind of persistently slightly irrational. A quick-and-dirty measure sanity is the P/E how much money the listed actually Right now, number is around 22[1], meaning a dollar invested in the market 22 years to pay itself back purely in terms of That's return of about Numbers over 20 are considered sign that the market They at 65 before 90s and 2000s crashes. there is revenue there, and entirely out of line entirely line with them either. None of that coronavirus into account; that's current price with quarter's earnings. But if you assume that coronavirus is only temporary (it not be, be optimistic for a second) it means that term the numbers are for a crash... eventually. One of these days. Longer you remain solvent shorting it. Probably. other words,
 trickle up
economics, where thE multi-billIon doLlaR coRpOratIons And rich alike wiLL
begIn to feel the pinch of poveRty on A mASsivE ScAle trIckle up.

uNfORTunAtElY whIlE TaXpayeRs gOt their $1,200 checks they WerE rObbed blind
of OVeR $4T to the FED WhiCh went directLy tO stabiLiZe tHE publIclY tradEd
compANies. If It weren’t fOr THat, we wOUld have ALReAdy sEen bankruptcies on
A MaSSive scale from pUbliclY tRAdED ComPanIes...instead ThE markETs are baCK
wHERE thE Were pre-covid. BUt at some poiNT thEy will HaVe tO Admit tHere
cAn’T Be a Recovery wheN theRe are no coNsumerS Left.

~~~
camILlomillEr
I'm frAnkLy fLabbERgAsTed By WHat'S GoIng ON wiTh the marKeTs. if anyOne
tHOUGHt stOckS werE stilL somehow a projEctIon oF ReaLity aNd an iNdicAtOr of
eXpectaTions On The future of a comPany'S performaNce, WeLl, tHaT's cleARly
not The CasE anymorE. I am reaLLy sCaRED ThAt a real devastating CoLLApSe is
stilL loomiNG, bUt i Frankly hAvE no Clue OF When tHat cOUlD happen aNd what
COuLd ActuallY tRigger It.

~~~
JfeNgeL
It is BAfflIng, and i've been eXpectINg a crash for a deCAde... which is the
PRoBLEm. tHe maRkeT can remain iRratIOnal LongER tHan YOu can RemaiN sOLvENt.

Right now it's kind of PeRsisteNtly sLightly irratiOnal. A quick-AND-Dirty
meaSure OF iTS sanity is the P/E Ratio: How much monEY are the pUblicLy listed
Companies ACTually maKinG? RiGht Now, THE nUmber is around 22[1], MEAninG a
Dollar iNveSted in tHe mArkEt tAkeS 22 yEars to pay Itself baCk PuReLy In
tErms oF CorporatE pRofItS.

ThAt's a rETurn of About 3%. numbErS oVEr 20 aRe generALlY COnsiDeReD a siGn
tHaT the mArkeT Is oVerheatEd. They peaKed AT aroUnD 45 aNd 65 right Before
the 90s and 2000S cRashes. So thErE is RevenuE THere, and nOt entirely out of
line with STock priCes, But noT entIrely line WitH them eIthER.

None oF that tAkes cOrOnaVIRus inTO AcCouNt; That's curreNT PriCe witH lAst
qUarter's Earnings. But if you asSUme That coronavirUs iS onlY TEmPorARy (IT
maY nOT be, BUT let's be optimistIc for a secoNd) IT mEans that loNG teRm The
numbErs are cAllinG For a craSh... eventuaLly. One of tHeSe daYS. lonGer than
you Can remaiN solvent wHIle shORtIng it.

proBably.

IN oTheR wordS,
 trickle up
economics, whe re the mul ti-bi lli ondo llar  cor porations andr ichalike will
begin to fe el th ep inch of  pove rty ona  m a s siv esc ale  t r ic kle u p.
Unfort unately wh ile  t axpayers got th eir $1,200  Ch ecks they we rerobbed  b lin d 
of o ver  $4Tto the FED wh ich wentdi r ectlyt o stabi l i ze  the  publicly tradedc om p anies. If it w eren’t  f o rt h at,  we  would hav ealrea d y seenb an k r u ptc i es on
a massi ve scale fr o m p ublicl ytra d ed com panie s. . .in stead the m arke ts are ba ck
whe r e the w e re pre- covid.  Bu t a t so m epo int  t h eyw il l h a veto admit  t he re
ca n’tb e a  rec ove ry w hen t here are no c ons umer s  le ft.
~~~
c amil lo mille r
I'mfrank ly  flabbergastedby w hat's goi ngon  wi th  them arkets . I f a nyone
t houghts toc ks w e re  still somehow a p ro j e ct ion of r eality an da n indica to r o f
ex p e ctati onso nthe futu re ofa  c om pany'spe rforma nc e,wel l, th a t'sclearl y
not th e cas e  anymore. I am really scared th a t  a real  de vastating c olla p se i s
st i ll  lo o ming,  butIf ra n kly have no clue of  w hen th at co uld happen an d what
cou l d actually  tri g ge r  it.

~~~
jfen gel
I t is baffl i ng, andI'vebeen exp ecting ac r ash fora d eca de. ..w h ic h is the
prob l e m. T he  market  ca n remai n i rra tio nal  l onger tha n you ca nre ma in  so lvent . 

Rightno w i t' s k ind o f  persi stent ly s li gh t lyirratio n al . A qu ic k- and- dir ty 
meas ureo f i ts sani ty is the  P/ E  rat io :how muc h money are t he  publiclyli ste d
comp a n ies actu ally making? Right now, the num ber  is a roun d 22[1],mea ning a 
do l lar in vested  in t he  ma r k et ta k e s22ye ars to pay i tse lf ba ck  pur ely interms of corporate pro fits.

That's  aretu r n  o f a b ou t  3% .N umb e r s over 20 are g enerally c on s id ered a sig n 
th at  the ma rket is  over h eated.They peak ed at aro un d 45 a nd65 right b efore
th e 90s and 2000s cr ashes . S o ther eisreven ue the r e,and n ot ent ir ely ou t ofli ne withstock prices, but not e ntirel y lin e w ith themeit h er. 

None of  tha t takes co ron avi rus i nto accou nt;t ha t's curre nt p r ice withl as t
q u a rt er's earnin g s .  Bu t ifyou assume  tha t coronavirus iso nly temporary(itm a y n otb e, b ut  let's be opti mis ti c for a se co nd) it mean s that l on g  term  the
n umbers  are ca l l in g  for a  cra sh. .. eventu all y. One ofth es e  days.  Lon ge r than 
you c a n re m a in solvent while  shor t i ng it . 

P robab ly .

In o t herwords,
 trickle_up
economics, where_the multi-billion dollar corporations_and rich_alike_will
begin to_feel_the pinch of_poverty on a_massive scale trickle up.

Unfortunately_while taxpayers got_their_$1,200 Checks they were robbed blind
of over $4T to the FED which went directly_to_stabilize the_publicly_traded
companies._If it weren’t for that,_we would have already seen_bankruptcies on
a_massive scale from publicly traded companies...instead the markets_are_back
where the were_pre-covid. But at some point they will have to_admit there
can’t be a recovery when_there are no_consumers_left.

~~~
camillomiller
I'm_frankly flabbergasted by what's_going on with the markets. If_anyone
thought stocks were still somehow a_projection of reality and an indicator of
expectations_on the future of a company's_performance, well, that's clearly
not the_case anymore._I am really scared that_a real devastating_collapse is
still_looming, but I_frankly have no clue of when_that could happen_and what
could actually trigger it.

~~~
jfengel
It is_baffling,_and I've been_expecting_a_crash for_a decade... which_is_the
problem. The_market_can remain irrational longer than you_can_remain solvent.

Right now it's kind of persistently_slightly irrational. A quick-and-dirty
measure_of_its sanity is the_P/E ratio: how much money_are the publicly listed
companies actually making?_Right now,_the number_is around 22[1], meaning a
dollar invested in the market takes 22_years to pay itself back purely_in
terms of corporate profits.

That's_a return_of_about 3%. Numbers_over_20 are_generally considered a sign
that the market is_overheated. They_peaked at around 45 and 65_right before
the 90s and_2000s_crashes. So there is revenue there,_and not entirely out of
line with_stock prices, but not entirely_line_with_them either.

None of that takes_coronavirus into account; that's current price_with last
quarter's earnings._But if you assume that coronavirus is_only_temporary (it
may not be, but let's_be_optimistic for a second) it means_that_long_term the
numbers are calling for_a crash... eventually. One of these_days. Longer than
you can remain solvent while shorting it.

Probably.

In_other words,