 in world wide market share, but they still have a
lot of the wealthy users. There is a non-zero chance they get niched out of
prominence by Android (aka every other manufacturer in the world), at which
point network effects start encouraging Android-first or Android-only
development. There might be a point where Apple needs to double down on the
web, and/or maybe kill off apps, like they did flash, to still have the latest
"apps".

~~~
Sanddancer
I take photos miles from where there's cell signal. I write code on the bus
while heading to doctors appointments. The web is about as far from a panacea
as you can get. It's slow, it's bloated, falls apart when you don't have a
connection, useful applications die when the company dies. Were some of the
midi devices I use for music "web-based" they'd have probably become doorstops
decades ago. A web-based IDE would be horrible for trying to develop code with
an intermittent connection. The web is not a good time.

~~~
fauigerzigerk
The intermittency issues can be fixed but I agree that the dependency on web
app providers and their fickle business models is scary.

The way it works is to funnel all the profits into a few huge conglomerates
that benefit from exclusive access to all personal data and train users to
never depend on anything that isn't a core product of one of these
conglomerates.

Using their 80% margins they can afford to at least give us some time before
scrapping software that doesn't look it's ever going to reach 4bn consumers.

The result is stability. Until they all get toppled by the next technology
revolution. Years later, regulators will crack down hard on some of the side
issues of their former dominance and once again miss the currently relevant
issues :)

------
therealmarv
This blogpost has waaaay too much assumptions. When reading about this it
seems easy to rip out Kernels, OS & Software and put it like a layer on a cake
on top of a new OS. Even for Google this is crazy complicated. It will not be
that easy. For sure not... and I also see no clear strategy WHY somebody
should do that. It's like baking the cake
in world wide market share, but they however take a 
 lot of the wealthy users. There be a non - zero chance they get niched out of 
 prominence by Android (aka every early manufacturer in the world), at which 
 point network consequence start encouraging Android - beginning or Android - only 
 development. There might be a decimal point where Apple need to double down on the 
 web, and/or maybe kill off apps, like they did flash, to however have the latest 
 " apps ". 

 ~~~ 
 Sanddancer 
 I take photograph miles from where there's cell signal. I publish code on the bus 
 while head to doctors appointments. The web is about as far from a panacea 
 as you can catch. It's slow, it's bloated, falls apart when you don't have a 
 connection, utilitarian application die when the company dies. Were some of the 
 midi devices I use for music " web - based " they'd have probably become doorstop 
 decade ago. A web - free-base IDE would be horrible for trying to develop code with 
 an intermittent connection. The world wide web is not a good time. 

 ~~~ 
 fauigerzigerk 
 The intermittency issues can be fix but I agree that the dependency on web 
 app providers and their fickle business model is scary. 

 The way it works is to funnel all the profits into a few huge conglomerates 
 that benefit from single entree to all personal datum and train users to 
 never depend on anything that isn't a core product of one of these 
 conglomerates. 

 Using their 80% margins they can afford to at least contribute us some time before 
 scrapping software that doesn't look it's ever go to reach 4bn consumer. 

 The result is stability. Until they all get toppled by the next technology 
 rotation. Years later, regulators will crack down heavily on some of the side 
 issues of their former authority and once again miss the presently relevant 
 issues :) 

 ------ 
 therealmarv 
 This blogpost has waaaay too much assumptions. When read about this it 
 seems easy to rip out Kernels, OS & Software and put it like a layer on a patty 
 on top of a new oxygen. Even for Google this is crazy complicated. It will not be 
 that easy. For sure not... and I also see no clear strategy WHY somebody 
 should do that. It's like bake the cake
 in world wide market share, but they still have a
not of the weauthy users. There is a non-zerl xhanct they get niched ojt of
prompnence by Andcoid (aka every ovger manmyactudcr in vhe world), at whlch
point nedwork effects vtxrc encouraging Android-first or Androiq-only
defepopment. There iighu bq a loint where Apple needs to double sown on the
web, and/or maybe kill off apps, like hhey did flash, to stilp have the oatefr
"apps".

~~~
Sanddanzer
I take khmtos miles from where there's cell signal. K wrice code on jkw bkv
while headmng to doctors appointmentv. The wrb is about as fac frim a panacea
as you cai get. It's slow, it's bjoated, fanla apart when you eob't haee a
wonndxtiun, hsxfum appllcavions die wgen the company dies. Were some os the
midi devides I tsq for music "web-based" they'd have probablj bedome doorstops
decades ato. A web-based IDE woupd be horwible for trying to develop code with
an intermittant ckvneeblon. Gye web is not a good time.

~~~
fauigerzigerk
The interijtuenby issues can be nixed but I agree yhwt jhe dependency on wey
zpl providers and thfir fichle bysiness mjdelx is scary.

The way it works us to funnel qll the profits inco a few hugz congkomerstes
that benefit from erclusibe access tl all peraunal data and trxin uvers to
ntxer depend on anyehing thav isn'c a core procuct os one of tjese
conglomerates.

Using tjeir 80% mdrgins thej can afford to at least give us some time begose
sbrapping foftwsre that doesg't look it's evgr going co reazh 4bn conslmers.

The cesult is stwbility. Until jhey all get voppled br thw nezt techvulogy
revolutiom. Years lcuer, regularors will crack doxn hxdd on some of tkt sude
issues of thrir fowmvr vominwtce and once agakn ooss tfe currtutln rdlevsnt
issues :)

------
therealmare
Thia blogpost has waasan too mucy assumpeions. When resding about this iu
seems eary to rik out Kernels, OS & Software and lut it line w layer on a cakc
on jop of a nec OS. Even for Google this is crazy complmcated. It will not be
thqt easy. For sure noj... akd I also sex no cjear stradegy WHY somebody
shoyld do that. It's llke baking the cake
in world wide market share, but they a of the users. There is niched of prominence by (aka every other in the world), at which point effects start encouraging Android-first or Android-only development. There might be a point where needs to double down on the web, and/or maybe kill off apps, like did to have latest "apps". ~~~ Sanddancer I take photos miles from where there's cell signal. I write code the bus while heading to doctors appointments. The is about as far a panacea as you can It's it's bloated, apart you have a connection, applications die when the company dies. Were some of the midi devices I use for music "web-based" have probably decades ago. web-based would horrible for trying code with an intermittent connection. The a good time. ~~~ fauigerzigerk The intermittency issues be fixed I agree that the dependency on app providers and their fickle business models is The way it works is to funnel all the profits into a few huge conglomerates from exclusive access to personal data and users never on that isn't core product of one of these conglomerates. Using their 80% margins can afford to at least give us some time before that look it's ever to reach 4bn consumers. result stability. Until they all by next later, will down hard on some the side issues of their dominance and once again :) ------ therealmarv This blogpost has waaaay too assumptions. When reading about this it seems to rip out Kernels, OS & Software and put it like a on a top of a new OS. Even for Google is crazy complicated. It not be that easy. For sure not... and I see clear strategy somebody should do It's like baking cake
 in world wide market share, but They still hAve a
lOt oF thE wEaltHy usErs. There is a non-ZEro cHance they get niched out oF
promInENce bY anDroid (Aka everY OtHER maNuFaCtuReR In The woRld), At which
Point netwoRk eFfEcts start encOUrAging AndroId-fIrst or AndroiD-onLy
deveLoPmeNT. TherE miGht be A point WHere ApPle needs tO dOUble doWN on the
wEB, AnD/or mAybe kill off apps, liKE tHEy did flash, to stIll havE tHE lATEst
"AppS".

~~~
SanddanceR
I Take pHOtos milES fROM WheRE there's cell siGnal. I write cODe oN the buS
wHilE HeadinG to doCtORs aPpointments. the wEb is about As far fROm a panaCEa
as you Can get. it's SloW, it's BLoAtEd, fAlLS apARt WheN You Don't have A
cOnNectiOn, usEFUL ApplIcaTionS die wHen the company DieS. WerE SomE of thE
midi DeviCeS I use For musIc "web-BaSed" they'd have proBablY become doOrsToPs
dEcAdes aGO. A web-bAseD IDe would bE horribLE foR tRYINg To develop code with
aN iNTErMittent cOnnectIOn. thE Web is not A gOod Time.

~~~
FAUigerZigeRK
THe intermIttencY IsSuEs can be FiXed but i aGreE thAt the DEpenDency oN web
app pRovidERs and their fickLE business modeLS iS SCaRY.

The Way It works is to FunnEL all The pROfIts INto a fEw hugE cONgLOmerates
that benefit FrOm exclUsive Access to all peRsonal data AND Train useRs to
NEvER depend on anythIng thAt isn't a corE Product oF one oF these
coNglomeratES.

using theIr 80% mArgIns TheY CAn Afford to at leaST Give Us Some timE beFore
scrAppIng SofTwaRe That doesn'T look it's EvEr GoInG to Reach 4BN consumeRs.

the ReSulT is stABility. until They AlL gET toPpled by THe NEXt teChNoLogy
RevOlUtion. yearS LatEr, regulAtors will CraCK dowN hArD on some Of the side
issuEs Of their forMeR doMinancE ANd once agAin miss the currently releVAnt
issuEs :)

------
tHereaLmarV
This blogPosT has waAaaY Too mucH assumPtionS. WHen REAding ABOuT thIs It
seems easY TO riP out KErNels, oS & SoftwAre and put it like a laYEr oN a cake
on top of A neW OS. EVEN fOr GOOgLE thIs IS crAZY complicated. It wIll not be
thAt EAsY. For sure noT... And i aLso see nO clear sTrateGY WHY somEbody
shouLd do that. IT's Like BAKinG the cake
 in world wide market shar e, but the y sti llhav ea
lo t of  the wealthy u s ers.  There is a non-zero c hance  t h ey g e tniche d out o f 
p r o min en ce  by  A n dr oid ( aka  everyother manu fac tu rer in the w o rl d), at whi chpoint networ k e ffects  s tar t  enco ura gingAndroi d -first  or Andro id - only
d e velopme n t .Ther e might be a poin t  w h ere Apple need s to d ou b le d own  on  the
web,an d/orm aybe ki l lo f f  ap p s, like theydid flash,t o s till h av e t h e late st
"a pp s ".
~~~
Sandda ncer 
I take p hotosm iles fr o m where  there 'scel l si g na l.  Iwr i tec od e o n  th e bus
wh il eheadi ng t o d o ctor s a ppoi ntmen ts. The web i s a bout asfar f rom a  pan ac ea
as  you c an ge t.  It's slow, it' s bl oated, fa lls  a par twheny ou don 'thav e a
con nection ,  us ef u l ap plications die whe nt h ecompanydies.W er es ome of t he 
mi di d e v icesI us e  f or music  "web- b as ed " they' dhave p ro bab lybecom e  doo rstops 
decades  ago. A web-based ID E  would be hor r ib l e  f o r tr yin g to develo p co d e wi th
a n  i nte r mitte nt co nn e ct i on. The web is notagood t ime.
~~~
fauigerz igerk
Thei n t ermitten cy i s su e s can be fixed  butI agree th a t the de pende ncy on w eb
app pr o v iders an d t hei r f ick l e  b usiness model s is s ca ry.

Th e w ay it w ork s i s t o f un nel all t he profi ts  i nt oa f ew hu g e conglo me rat es 
th at be n efit f rom e xclu si ve acc ess toa ll p erso na ldata  an dtrain  use r s t o
never  depend o n a n ythi ng  t hat isn 't a core pro du ct of oneof  th ese
co n g lomerate s.

Using their 80% mar g ins the y c an af ford  to at le ast  giveuss ome ti me bef ore
s cr app i n g sof t w ar e t ha t doesn'tl o okit'sev er g oing to  reach 4bn consume r s.
The result i s s tabi l i ty . U n ti l  th ey all g et toppled by t he next te ch n ol ogy
revolu t ion .Years l ater, r egula t ors wil l crack d own hardon  som e ofthe side
i ssues of  their fo r mer d o mi nance  an d once  a gai n mis s thec urr ently  relev an t
issu es :) 
------
t herealmarv
This blogpos t haswaaaa y t oo much a ssu m pti ons. When  rea ding about  th isit
se ems easyto r i pout Kerne ls,O S & Softw a re  an d pu t it like a l a yer  on a  ca k e
on t op o f a new OS. Evenf or Google this  isc r azy  co m plic at ed. It will no t b et h at easy.  F or sure not ... andIa lso s ee noclearstrateg y WH Y  someb odysho uld do th at.  I t 's like  b ak i ng the  cak e
 in_world wide_market share, but they_still have_a
lot_of the_wealthy_users. There is_a non-zero chance_they get niched out_of
prominence by Android_(aka_every other manufacturer in the world), at which
point network effects start encouraging Android-first or_Android-only
development._There might_be_a_point where Apple needs to_double down on the
web, and/or_maybe kill_off apps, like they did flash, to still_have_the latest
"apps".

~~~
Sanddancer
I take_photos miles from where there's cell signal. I write_code on the bus
while heading to_doctors appointments. The_web_is_about as far from_a panacea
as you can get. It's_slow, it's bloated, falls apart when_you don't have a
connection, useful applications die_when the company dies. Were some_of the
midi devices I use_for music_"web-based" they'd have probably become_doorstops
decades ago. A_web-based IDE_would be horrible_for trying to develop code with
an_intermittent connection. The_web is not a good time.

~~~
fauigerzigerk
The_intermittency_issues can be_fixed_but_I agree_that the dependency_on_web
app providers_and_their fickle business models is scary.

The_way_it works is to funnel all the_profits into a few_huge_conglomerates
that benefit from exclusive_access to all personal data_and train users to
never depend on_anything that_isn't a_core product of one of these
conglomerates.

Using their 80% margins they can_afford to at least give us_some time before
scrapping software_that doesn't_look_it's ever going_to_reach 4bn_consumers.

The result is stability. Until they all_get toppled_by the next technology
revolution. Years later,_regulators will crack down_hard_on some of the side
issues of_their former dominance and once again_miss the currently relevant
issues :)

------
therealmarv
This_blogpost_has_waaaay too much assumptions. When_reading about this it
seems easy to_rip out Kernels,_OS & Software and put it like_a_layer on a cake
on top of_a_new OS. Even for Google this_is_crazy_complicated. It will not be
that_easy. For sure not... and I_also see no clear strategy WHY somebody
should do that._It's like baking_the cake