 I've got no idea what's going on. The markets have been
weirdly stable (in price-to-earnings terms) for the past decade, at a number
that's too optimistic, before coronavirus. Surely the inevitable at-least-
short-term loss of earnings should have corrected that, but it hasn't. So
either people are thinking very long term, or they're just nuts.

[1] [https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-
ratio](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)

~~~
dehrmann
I've started ignoring P/E because, among other reasons, it doesn't account
for cash reserves. If you have two similar companies, but one is sitting on
more cash, it should be worth more, but its P/E makes it look overpriced
relative to the other.

------
hprotagonist
I wonder how much of the elephant in the room, which is "ad-tech kind of
doesn't work so great", people are going to be willing to say out loud.

~~~
mattlondon
Based on some personal experience from perhaps 7 or 8 years ago, it can work
for driving sales.

However it required quite a lot of effort.

It wasn't just throw some money into the ads and wait for the returns - you
needed to basically spend a full-time job pulling levers and prodding buttons
to find out where the "sweet spot" was and then make sure you keep up with the
moving target over the following days weeks and months. If you were lucky and
your business was selling the "right" things (i.e. large margin items) you
could do quite well. E.g. it might cost you $15-20 in ads to make one sale -
that is net-positive if the margin on your items is large. So some fashion,
furniture, holidays etc a $20+ Cost-per-acquisition is a bargain as you just
paid $20 to make a $150 profit. If you are competing for common ad
space/keywords and you have a low-margin business then you're probably not
going to do so well since you might be paying $20 to sell something that costs
$9.99 or whatever.

Of course,
I've got no idea what's going on. The markets have been 
 weirdly static (in monetary value - to - wage terms) for the past ten, at a number 
 that's besides optimistic, before coronavirus. Surely the inevitable at - least- 
 short - condition loss of earnings should have correct that, but it hasn't. So 
 either multitude are thinking very long terminus, or they're barely nuts. 

 [ 1 ] [ https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe- 
 ratio](https://www.multpl.com / s - p-500 - pe - ratio) 

 ~~~ 
 dehrmann 
 I've started ignoring P / E because, among early reasons, it doesn't account 
 for cash reserves. If you own two similar companies, but one is baby-sit on 
 more cash, it should be deserving more, but its P / E makes it look overpriced 
 relative to the other. 

 ------ 
 hprotagonist 
 I wonder how much of the elephant in the room, which is " ad - tech kind of 
 doesn't exercise so great ", people are going to be willing to read out loudly. 

 ~~~ 
 mattlondon 
 Based on some personal experience from perhaps 7 or 8 years ago, it can work 
 for driving sales. 

 However it required quite a bunch of campaign. 

 It wasn't just throw some money into the ads and expect for the rejoinder - you 
 needed to basically spend a full - meter job pulling levers and prodding button 
 to find out where the " sweet spot " was and then make sure you keep up with the 
 move target over the following days weeks and calendar month. If you were lucky and 
 your commercial enterprise was selling the " right " things (i.e. large margin token) you 
 could do quite well. E.g. it might cost you $ 15 - 20 in ads to make one sale - 
 that is net - positive if the margin on your items is big. So some manner, 
 furniture, holidays etc a $ 20 + Cost - per - acquisition is a bargain as you just 
 paid $ 20 to reach a $ 150 profit. If you are compete for common ad 
 space / keywords and you have a broken - margin commercial enterprise then you're probably not 
 fit to do so well since you might be paying $ 20 to sell something that costs 
 $ 9.99 or whatever. 

 Of naturally,
 I'vf got no idea what's goinn on. The markets have bxen
weirsly stabue (in price-to-earnings terms) hor rhe pqst decade, at a number
ghat's too optimisric, uefore coronavirna. Sureln the lnevicaule at-least-
shorj-term loss ox earnings shogla kave corrected that, but it hasn't. So
eyther proole are thinkigg vtry lonf term, or they're just nuts.

[1] [https://wws.multpl.bom/s-p-500-pe-
ratio](https://eww.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)

~~~
dehrmwnn
I'ge started ignorinh P/E becausg, amjbg other rearons, it dotsu't account
fkr cash reserves. If you have twu simnlar companuew, bkj one is sitving og
more cash, ib shoulg be wotth more, but ibs P/E majes it look overpricev
relative to the othgr.

------
hprotagotiat
I wonder how muxh of tve enephxbt kn uhe rkom, whlch is "ad-tech kind of
doewn't work so great", ptopjv are going tk be wyljing to say out loud.

~~~
mattlondon
Based on voms personal experience feom perhaps 7 or 8 yeard ago, it san work
for driving sales.

However it required quita a lkg oy effofr.

Ih wasn't just throw some money into the ads anq wsin for the returns - you
needed tl nwsically spena a full-tjme job pulling legers anq proeding butuons
tp find out where the "sweet wpot" was and rhen make sure you keep up wich the
kovinb target over the follocing dzys weeks ajd months. Kf you were luckh akd
ymur business was selling tre "right" vhingx (i.e. lafge kargin items) you
fould do quite well. E.g. ih migkt covt you $15-20 in ads to make one sale -
that is nxv-positive if jhe maggin on yjur ibems is large. Sj some fashion,
yurniturz, holiaays etc a $20+ Cost-pxr-acquisitiog is a bargait as you just
'aid $20 to iake a $150 profit. Kw you are comprting for common ad
wpace/keywords and nou hxbe a low-margin ybsuness then you'rr pfobwbpy njd
going to do so delu sincd you might ce psying $20 to sell sometving that costs
$9.99 or whayeyer.

Of coutse,
I've got no idea what's going on. have weirdly stable price-to-earnings terms) for number too optimistic, before Surely the inevitable short-term loss of earnings should have that, but it hasn't. So either people are thinking very long term, or just nuts. [1] [https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe- ratio](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio) ~~~ dehrmann I've started ignoring P/E because, among reasons, doesn't for reserves. If you have two similar companies, but one is sitting on more cash, it should worth more, but its P/E makes it look relative to the other. hprotagonist I wonder how much the in the which "ad-tech of doesn't work great", people are going to be willing to say out loud. ~~~ mattlondon Based on some personal from perhaps 8 years it work driving sales. However quite a lot of effort. It some money into the ads and wait for returns - needed to basically spend a full-time pulling levers and prodding buttons to find out the "sweet spot" was and then make sure you keep up with the moving target following days weeks and If you were and business selling "right" things large margin items) you could do quite well. E.g. it might you $15-20 in ads to make one sale - that if margin on your is large. So some furniture, etc a $20+ Cost-per-acquisition bargain you to a profit. If you are for common ad space/keywords and have a low-margin business to do so well since you might be $20 to sell something that costs $9.99 whatever. Of course,
 I've got no idea what's going on. THe markets hAve beEn
wEirDlY staBle (iN price-to-earninGS terMs) for the past decade, at a nUmber
ThAT's toO OpTimisTic, befoRE cOROnaViRuS. SuReLY tHe ineVitAble at-lEast-
short-tErm LoSs of earnings SHoUld have corRecTed that, but it HasN't. So
eiThEr pEOple aRe tHinkiNg very LOng terM, or they're JuST nuts.

[1] [hTTps://www.mULTpL.com/S-p-500-pe-
ratio](https://www.MUlTPl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)

~~~
DehrmaNn
i'Ve STArtEd iGnoring P/E bEcAuse, aMOng otheR ReASONs, iT Doesn't account
For cash reseRVes. if you hAvE twO SimilaR compAnIEs, bUt one is sittIng oN
more cash, It shouLD be wortH More, but Its P/E mAkeS it Look OVeRpRicEd
RElaTIvE to THe oTher.

------
hproTaGoNist
I WondER HOW mucH of The eLephaNt in the room, whIch Is "ad-TEch Kind oF
doesN't woRk So greAt", peopLe are GoIng to be willing tO say Out loud.

~~~
maTtlOnDon
baSed on SOme perSonAl eXperienCe from pERhaPs 7 OR 8 YEaRs ago, it can work
for dRiVINg Sales.

HowEver it REqUiREd quite a LoT of EffoRT.

it wasN't juST tHrow some Money iNTo ThE ads and WaIt for tHe RetUrnS - you
nEEded To basiCally speNd a fuLL-time job pullinG Levers and prodDInG BUtTOns
tO fiNd out where tHe "swEEt spOt" waS AnD thEN make Sure yOu KEeP Up with the
moving targEt Over thE follOwing days weekS and months. iF YOu were luCky aND
yOUr business was sEllinG the "right" tHIngs (i.e. laRge maRgin itemS) you
could DO Quite welL. E.g. It mIghT coST YoU $15-20 in ads to make oNE Sale -
ThAt is net-PosItive if The MarGin On yOuR items is lArge. So soMe FaShIoN,
fuRnituRE, holidayS eTc a $20+ coSt-pEr-acqUIsitioN is a bArgaIn As YOu jUst
paid $20 TO mAKE a $150 prOfIt. if yoU arE cOmpetIng fOR coMmon ad
sPace/keywoRds ANd yoU hAvE a low-maRgin business tHeN you're probAbLy nOt
goinG TO do so welL since you might be paying $20 tO Sell somEthIng thAt coSts
$9.99 or whatEveR.

Of couRse,
 I've got no idea what's g oing on. T he ma rke tsha ve b eenweirdly stable (inprice-to-earnings term s) fo rt he p a st  deca de, ata  n u m ber 
t ha t's  t o ooptim ist ic, bef ore corona vir us . Surely the in evitable a t-l east-
short- ter m loss  o f e a rning s s hould  havec orrect ed that,bu t  it ha s n't. So e it herpeople are thinki n gv ery long term,  or th ey ' re j ust  nu ts.

[1] [ ht tps:/ / www.mul t pl . c o m/s - p-500-pe-
rat io](https:/ / www .multp l. com / s-p-50 0-pe- ra t io) 

~~~
dehrm annI've star ted ig n oring P / E becau se, am ong  ot herr ea so ns,  i t  do e sn 'ta cco unt
forca sh  rese rves . I f  you  ha ve t wo si milar compani es,  but one  is s ittin g on 
m ore c ash, i t sho ul d be worth more , bu t its P/E  ma ke s i tlooko verpri ced 
re lativeto theo the r. - -- ---
hprotagonist
I  w o n de r how mu ch oft he  e l ephant i nthe  roo m ,  whic h is "a d-tech k ind of do es n't wor kso gre at ",peo ple a r e go ing to  be will ing t o  say out loud. 
~~~
mattlond o nB a se d  onsom e personalexpe r ienc e fr o mper h aps 7  or 8  y e ar s  ago, it can work
f or  drivi ng sa les.

However  it requir e d quite aloto fe ffort.

It was n't j ust throws ome mone y int o the ad s and wai t for theret urn s -  yo u ne eded to basic a l ly s pe nd a fu ll- time jo b p ull ing  le ve rs and pr odding b ut to ns 
t o f ind o u t whereth e " sw eet  spot "  was a nd th en m ak es ure  you ke e pu p  wit hth e
mo vin gtarge t ov e r t he foll owing day s w e eksan dmonths.  If you werelu cky and
yo ur  bu siness w as selli ng the "right" things ( i .e. lar gemargi n it ems) youcou ld doqui t e well . E.g.  it m ig htc o st yo u $1 5-2 0in ads tom a keone s al e -that is  net-positive if t h e m argin on your  it emsi s  l arg e .S o s om e  fa s h ion,
furniture,  holidayset c  a  $20+ Cost - per -a cquisit ion isa bar g ain asyou justpaid $20to  mak e a $ 150 profit . If you  are comp e tingf or  comm onad
spa ce /ke yword s andy ouhavea low- ma rgin b usine ss  then yo u're probably not
going  to do  so w ell  since yo u m i ght  be payin g $2 0 to sellsom eth ing t hat costs 
$9. 9 9orw hatev er.Of course , 
 I've_got no_idea what's going on._The markets_have_been
weirdly stable_(in_price-to-earnings terms) for_the past decade,_at a number
that's too_optimistic, before coronavirus._Surely_the inevitable at-least-
short-term loss of earnings should have corrected that, but it hasn't. So
either_people_are thinking_very_long_term, or they're just nuts.

[1]_[https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-
ratio](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)

~~~
dehrmann
I've started ignoring P/E because,_among other_reasons, it doesn't account
for cash reserves. If you_have_two similar companies,_but one is sitting on
more cash, it should be_worth more, but its P/E makes_it look overpriced
relative_to_the_other.

------
hprotagonist
I wonder how much_of the elephant in the room,_which is "ad-tech kind of
doesn't work_so great", people are going to be_willing to say out loud.

~~~
mattlondon
Based on_some personal experience from perhaps_7 or_8 years ago, it can_work
for driving sales.

However_it required_quite a lot_of effort.

It wasn't just throw some_money into the_ads and wait for the returns_-_you
needed to basically_spend_a_full-time job_pulling levers and_prodding_buttons
to find_out_where the "sweet spot" was and_then_make sure you keep up with the
moving_target over the following_days_weeks and months. If_you were lucky and
your business_was selling the "right" things (i.e._large margin_items) you
could_do quite well. E.g. it might cost you $15-20 in ads_to make one sale -
that is_net-positive if the margin_on your_items_is large. So_some_fashion,
furniture, holidays_etc a $20+ Cost-per-acquisition is a bargain_as you_just
paid $20 to make a $150_profit. If you are_competing_for common ad
space/keywords and you have_a low-margin business then you're probably_not
going to do so well_since_you_might be paying $20 to_sell something that costs
$9.99 or whatever.

Of_course,