 nothing, since the fit for D​100-bars in an outcome where Bart has one chocolate bar is clearly greater than simplicity operate with the 'evidentialist' definition given in the main text in our discussion of examples below. 45 For example, consider an account on which promotion consists in causing an uptick in expected fit -a view analogous to Lin's Causal Probabilism, with probability of satisfaction replaced by expected fit. Although we did not specify the details about the degrees of fit of different outcomes in the original Bertie case, it is not hard to see that a version of the case can be constructed in which Bertie's beginning a sporadic training program would decrease the expected fit of his desire. Roughly, we need only assume that Bertie's expected fit for this desire was very high to begin with, due to his being very likely to begin a regular training program and there being a high degree of fit for the most probable outcomes of beginning such a training program. 46 For more on this, see the discussion at the end of section 2. 24 the fit in an outcome where Bart has no chocolate bar. We agree with this verdict and thus hope to reproduce it in our own account, so consider the situation from the perspective of ​expected ​fit. If Bart buys a chocolate bar he will, with probability 1, end up with an outcome in which he has one chocolate bar, and hence the ​expected ​fit will simply be the actual fit in that outcome. That is, since P(o​1-bar​|Bart buys 1 bar) = 1, we have EF(Bart buys 1 bar,D​100-bars​) = F(o​1-bar​,D​100-bars​). By the same token, if Bart purchases nothing with his $1, he will, with probability 1, end up having zero chocolate bars, so the expected ​fit will simply be the actual fit in ​that outcome. That is, since P(o​0-bar​|Bart buys nothing) = 1, we have EF(Bart buys nothing,D​100-bars​) = F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Since the fit in a 1-bar outcome is clearly greater than the fit in the 0-bar outcome Bart would end up in if he bought nothing, F(o​1-bar​,D​100-bars​) is clearly greater than F(o​0-bars​
nothing, since the fit for D​100 - bars in an outcome where Bart has one cocoa prevention is clearly greater than ease manoeuver with the' evidentialist' definition given in the main textbook in our discussion of examples below. 45 For example, see an account on which promotion consist in causing an uptick in expected fit -a opinion analogous to Lin's Causal Probabilism, with probability of satisfaction replaced by expected fit. Although we did not specify the details about the degree of fit of different outcomes in the original Bertie character, it is not hard to see that a version of the case can be construct in which Bertie's beginning a sporadic training program would decrease the expected fit of his desire. approximately, we need only assume that Bertie's expected fit for this desire was very high to begin with, due to his being very probable to get down a even training program and there being a high degree of fit for the most probable result of begin such a training program. 46 For more on this, visit the discussion at the goal of section 2. 24 the fit in an outcome where Bart have no chocolate bar. We agree with this verdict and thus hope to regurgitate it in our own account, so consider the situation from the perspective of ​expected ​fit. If Bart buys a chocolate bar he will, with probability 1, end up with an outcome in which he has one chocolate bar, and therefore the ​expected ​fit will simply be the actual burst in that result. That is, since P(o​1 - bar​|Bart buys 1 bar) = 1, we have EF(Bart buys 1 browning automatic rifle, D​100 - bars​) = F(o​1 - bar​,D​100 - bars​). By the same token, if Bart purchases nothing with his $ 1, he will, with probability 1, end up take zero cocoa bars, so the expected ​fit will simply be the actual fit in ​that outcome. That is, since P(o​0 - bar​|Bart buy nothing) = 1, we have EF(Bart buy nothing, D​100 - bars​) = F(o​0 - bars​,D​100 - bars​). Since the fit in a 1 - barroom outcome is intelligibly greater than the burst in the 0 - bar outcome Bart would end up in if he bought nothing, F(o​1 - bar​,D​100 - bars​) is clearly greater than F(o​0 - bars​
 nohhing, since the fit for A​100-bars in an outeime whxre Barf has ond chocolate bar is clearly gceatwr thqn simplicity operate dith the 'vvidentiaoist' eefinition given ik the lain vext in our disgussion of axamples below. 45 Wox example, consider an account on whish promptlon consists ig calsyng zn uptick in expected fit -a view ahalogouv to Lin's Cauxal Probabilism, with probahilihy of satisfaction replaced bi ex[wcted fit. Alghough we did not specjfy the details about the degreds of fit of didfwrejj outcomes ii the jriginal Berbpe case, it is mot hard to sec thav a cersion of the case cen be constructed in which Bestne's beginning a sporaeix trahninc prutrao wkukd decrewse the expecfed fit of yis desire. Roughly, ee beed only asshme thwt Bertie's expected fit for this desire wds bery high to begin with, due to his being veri likely tj begin a regular training program and there beinc a hmgf dtgvce ow flt for the most probable outcomes of beginnind sicm a training pronram. 46 For more on yhls, fee the discursion cf fhe end of section 2. 24 the sit ib an outcjme ehere Bart has no chocolate bar. We agrev wirh this verdict anb thus hope co reptoduce it in our own account, ro cknsider the situatioh from the perspeztine ox ​expectta ​fit. If Bart buyf a chocooate bar he wilk, with probabilihy 1, ekg up with an outcole in wvich he had one chocolate bar, and hence tix ​expected ​fij whll simply ye the actual fit ig that outcome. That if, sinze P(o​1-bar​|Bagt buys 1 uar) = 1, we havq EF(Bart buys 1 bar,D​100-bars​) = F(m​1-bar​,D​100-barf​). By the same tuyen, if Bart putchases nothing wity his $1, he will, witm proczbility 1, end up hacing zero chocokatd bwrd, xo dhe expected ​fit wiuk simoly be uke ccgual fit in ​that outcome. Thaf is, since P(o​0-bar​|Batt buys nojhing) = 1, wq have EF(Bart buys nothing,D​100-bars​) = F(o​0-bers​,D​100-bacs​). Sinve jhe fit in a 1-bar outcome is clezrly greaher than the fie in the 0-bar outeome Bart would end up in if he bought nithing, F(o​1-bar​,D​100-bars​) us clearly greater jhak F(o​0-bars​
nothing, since the fit for D​100-bars in where has one bar is clearly the definition given in main text in discussion of examples below. 45 For consider an account on which promotion consists in causing an uptick in expected -a view analogous to Lin's Causal Probabilism, with probability of satisfaction replaced by fit. we not the details about the degrees of fit of different outcomes in the original Bertie case, it not hard to see that a version of case can be constructed which Bertie's beginning a sporadic program decrease the fit his Roughly, we need assume that Bertie's expected fit for this desire was very high to begin with, due to his very likely a regular program there a high degree for the most probable outcomes of training program. 46 For more on this, see discussion at end of section 2. 24 the in an outcome where Bart has no chocolate We agree with this verdict and thus hope to reproduce it in our own account, the situation from the of ​expected ​fit. Bart a bar will, with 1, end up with an outcome in which he has one bar, and hence the ​expected ​fit will simply be the in outcome. That is, P(o​1-bar​|Bart buys 1 bar) 1, have EF(Bart buys 1 F(o​1-bar​,D​100-bars​). the Bart nothing his $1, he will, probability 1, end up having chocolate bars, so the the actual fit in ​that outcome. That is, P(o​0-bar​|Bart buys nothing) = 1, we have buys nothing,D​100-bars​) = F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Since the fit in a 1-bar outcome is greater than in the 0-bar outcome Bart would end up if he bought nothing, is clearly greater than F(o​0-bars​
 nothing, since the fit for D​100-barS in an outcoMe wheRe BArt HaS one ChocOlate bar is cleaRLy grEater than simplicity opeRate wItH The 'eVIdEntiaList' defINiTIOn gIvEn In tHe MAiN text In oUr discuSsion of exaMplEs Below. 45 For examPLe, Consider an AccOunt on which pRomOtion cOnSisTS in caUsiNg an uPtick iN ExpectEd fit -a vieW aNAlogouS To Lin's CAUSaL ProBabilism, with probaBIlITy of satisfactiOn replAcED bY EXpeCteD fit. AlthouGh We did NOt speciFY tHE DEtaILs about the degRees of fit of DIffErent oUtComES in the OrigiNaL berTie case, it is Not hArd to see tHat a veRSion of tHE case caN be conStrUctEd in WHiCh berTiE'S beGInNinG A spOradic trAiNiNg proGram WOULD decReaSe thE expeCted fit of his dEsiRe. RoUGhlY, we neEd onlY assUmE that bertie'S expeCtEd fit for this desIre wAs very higH to BeGin WiTh, due TO his beIng VerY likely To begin A RegUlAR TRaIning program and theRe BEInG a high deGree of FIt FoR The most pRoBabLe ouTCOmes oF begINnIng such a TrainiNG pRoGram. 46 For MoRe on thIs, See The DiscuSSion At the eNd of sectIon 2. 24 thE Fit in an outcome WHere Bart has no CHoCOLaTE bar. we aGree with thiS verDIct aNd thUS hOpe TO reprOduce It IN oUR own account, so considEr The sitUatioN from the perspEctive of ​exPECTed ​fit. If bart BUyS A chocolate bar hE will, With probabILity 1, end uP with An outcomE in which hE HAs one choColAte Bar, And HENcE the ​expected ​fIT Will SiMply be tHe aCtual fiT in ThaT ouTcoMe. that is, sinCe P(o​1-bar​|BArT bUyS 1 bAr) = 1, wE have ef(Bart buyS 1 bAr,D​100-BaRs​) = F(O​1-bar​,D​100-BArs​). By tHe samE tokEn, If bArt PurchasES nOTHing WiTh His $1, hE wiLl, With pRobaBIliTy 1, end up Having zerO chOColaTe BaRs, so the Expected ​fit wiLl Simply be thE aCtuAl fit iN ​THat outcoMe. That is, since P(o​0-bar​|Bart bUYs nothiNg) = 1, wE have eF(BaRt buys notHinG,D​100-bars​) = f(o​0-bARs​,D​100-barS​). Since The fiT iN a 1-bAR OutcoME Is CleArLy greater tHAN thE fit iN tHe 0-baR outcomE Bart would end up in iF He bOught nothing, F(O​1-baR​,D​100-baRS​) Is CleARlY GreAtER thAN f(o​0-bars​
 nothing, since the fit fo r D​100-ba rs in  an  ou tc omewher e Bart has one choc olate bar is clearly g reate rt hans im plici ty oper a te w ith  t he  'e vi d en tiali st'  defini tion given  in  t he main text in  our discu ssi on of exampl esbelow.  4 5 F o r exa mpl e, co nsider an acc ount on w hi c h prom o tion co n s is ts i n causing an upti c ki n expected fit  -a vi ew an a l ogo usto Lin's C au sal P r obabili s m, w i thp robability of  satisfacti o n r eplace dbye xpecte d fit .A lth ough we did  not  specifythe de t ails ab o ut thedegree s o f f it o f  d if fer en t  ou t co mes inthe orig in al  Bert ie c a s e ,  itisnothardto see that a  ve rsio n  of  thecasecanbe  cons tructe d inwh ich Bertie's be ginn ing a spo rad ic  tr ai ningp rogram  wo uld  decrea se thee xpe ct e d fi t of his desire. R ou g h ly , we nee d only as su m e that B er tie 's e x p ected  fit fo r this d esirew as  v ery hig hto beg in  wi th,  duet o hi s bein g very l ikely to begin a reg u lar trainingp ro g r am andthe re being ahigh degr ee o f  f itf or th e mos tp ro b able outcomes of be gi nningsucha training pr ogram. 46F o r  more on  thi s ,s ee the discuss ion a t the endo f sectio n 2.24 the f it in ano u tcome wh ere  Ba rthas n ochocolate bar . We a gr ee with  th is verd ict  an d t hus  h ope to re produceit  i nou r o wn ac c ount, so  c ons id erthe s i tuatio n fro m th epe r spe ctive o f  ​ e x pect ed  ​ fit.  If  B art b uysa  ch ocolate  bar he w ill ,  wit hpr obabili ty 1, end upwi th an outc om e i n whic h he has o ne chocolate bar, and h e nce the  ​e xpect ed ​ fit willsim ply be  th e  actua l fitin th at  ou t c ome.T h at  is ,since P(o​ 1 - bar ​|Bar tbuys  1 bar)  = 1, we have EF(B a rtbuys 1 bar,D​ 100 -bar s ​ )= F ( o​ 1 -ba r​ , D​1 0 0 -bars​). By the  same toke n, if  Bart purc h ase snothing  with h is $1 ,  he wil l, with p robabilit y1, e n d  up  having ze ro choco late bars ,  so t h eexpec ted  ​fitwi llsimpl y be t h e a ctual  fit i n​thatoutco me . That i s, since P(o​0-bar​|Bar t buys  noth ing ) = 1, we  ha v e E F(Bart bu ys n othing,D​1 00- bar s​) =  F( o ​0-ba rs​, D ​1 00- b ars​) . Si n ce the fi t  i n a 1 -b ar outcomei s cle arlygre a ter th an t he fit in the 0-b a r outcome Bart  wou l d  en d u p  inif  he bought not hin g, F (o​1-bar ​, D​100-bars​ ) is cle ar l y gre ater t han F( o​0-bar s ​ 
 nothing,_since the_fit for D​100-bars in_an outcome_where_Bart has_one_chocolate bar is_clearly greater than_simplicity operate with the_'evidentialist' definition given_in_the main text in our discussion of examples below. 45 For example, consider an_account_on which_promotion_consists_in causing an uptick in_expected fit -a view analogous_to Lin's_Causal Probabilism, with probability of satisfaction replaced by_expected_fit. Although we_did not specify the details about the degrees of_fit of different outcomes in the_original Bertie case,_it_is_not hard to see_that a version of the case_can be constructed in which Bertie's_beginning a sporadic training program would decrease_the expected fit of his desire._Roughly, we need only assume_that Bertie's_expected fit for this desire_was very high_to begin_with, due to_his being very likely to begin_a regular training_program and there being a high_degree_of fit for_the_most_probable outcomes_of beginning such_a_training program._46_For more on this, see the_discussion_at the end of section 2. 24_the fit in an_outcome_where Bart has no_chocolate bar. We agree with_this verdict and thus hope to_reproduce it_in our_own account, so consider the situation from the perspective of ​expected_​fit. If Bart buys a chocolate_bar he will, with_probability 1,_end_up with an_outcome_in which_he has one chocolate bar, and hence_the ​expected_​fit will simply be the actual_fit in that outcome._That_is, since P(o​1-bar​|Bart buys 1 bar)_= 1, we have EF(Bart buys_1 bar,D​100-bars​) = F(o​1-bar​,D​100-bars​). By_the_same_token, if Bart purchases nothing_with his $1, he will, with_probability 1, end_up having zero chocolate bars, so the_expected_​fit will simply be the actual_fit_in ​that outcome. That is, since_P(o​0-bar​|Bart_buys_nothing) = 1, we have_EF(Bart buys nothing,D​100-bars​) = F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Since_the fit in a 1-bar outcome is clearly greater_than the fit_in the 0-bar outcome Bart_would_end_up in if he bought nothing, F(o​1-bar​,D​100-bars​) is clearly greater_than F(o​0-bars​