,D​100-bars​). So φ-ing promotes D​100-bars according to Contrastive Expected Fit, as desired. Consider next a modification of this case in which Bart is contemplating buying a ticket to a fair 100-ticket chocolate lottery, which conveniently pays the winner 100 chocolate bars and would thus satisfy Bart's desire for 100 chocolate bars (D​100-bars​). (Again we assume for simplicity that there is no other way for Bart to obtain chocolate with his $1.) According to Contrastive Fit-Probabilism, Bart would promote his desire by purchasing a ticket rather than, say, purchasing nothing, since the probability of satisfying D​100-bars​ is clearly greater if he purchases the ticket than if he does not. Again we agree with this verdict and hope to reproduce it in our own account, so consider the expected fit of each course of action. If Bart buys the chocolate lottery ticket, the probability is 1/100 that he will end up with perfect fit between D​100-bars and the outcome (i.e., that he will end up with a fully satisfied desire D​100-bars​) and 99/100 that he will end up with ​no​ fit between D​100-bars​ and the outcome. Thus, EF(Bart buys ticket,D​100-bars​) = 0.01 x F(o​100-bars​,D​100-bars​) + 0.99 x F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Contrast this with the expected fit of Bart purchasing nothing. In that case, Bart is certain to end up with an outcome in which he has zero chocolate bars, so the expected fit will simply be the actual fit in a zero-bar outcome. That is, since P(o​0-bar​|Bart buys nothing) = 1, we have EF(Bart buys nothing,D​100-bars​) = F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Given that F(o​100-bars​,D​100-bars​) is clearly greater than F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​), it follows that: EF(Bart buys ticket,D​100-bars​) > EF(Bart buys nothing,D​100-bars​). 25 So Bart buying the ticket rather than nothing promotes D​100-bars according to
, D​100 - bars​). So φ - ing promotes D​100 - bars according to Contrastive Expected Fit, as desire. think next a modification of this case in which Bart is contemplating bribe a ticket to a fair 100 - slate cocoa lottery, which conveniently pays the winner 100 chocolate bars and would therefore satisfy Bart's desire for 100 chocolate bars (D​100 - bars​). (Again we assume for ease that there is no other way for Bart to obtain chocolate with his $ 1 .) harmonize to Contrastive Fit - Probabilism, Bart would promote his desire by purchasing a ticket quite than, say, purchasing nothing, since the probability of satisfying D​100 - bars​ is clearly greater if he buy the ticket than if he does not. Again we harmonize with this verdict and hope to reproduce it in our own account, therefore consider the expected fit of each course of action. If Bart buys the chocolate lottery ticket, the probability is 1/100 that he will end up with perfect fit between D​100 - bars and the outcome (i.e., that he will end up with a fully satisfied desire D​100 - bars​) and 99/100 that he will end up with ​no​ fit between D​100 - bars​ and the outcome. Thus, EF(Bart buy ticket, D​100 - bars​) = 0.01 x F(o​100 - bars​,D​100 - bars​) + 0.99 x F(o​0 - bars​,D​100 - bars​). Contrast this with the expected burst of Bart buy nothing. In that casing, Bart is certain to end up with an outcome in which he have zero chocolate bars, so the expected fit will plainly be the actual fit in a zero - bar outcome. That is, since P(o​0 - bar​|Bart buys nothing) = 1, we have EF(Bart buys nothing, D​100 - bars​) = F(o​0 - bars​,D​100 - bars​). give that F(o​100 - bars​,D​100 - bars​) is clearly greater than F(o​0 - bars​,D​100 - bars​), it follows that: EF(Bart buys tag, D​100 - bars​) > EF(Bart buys nothing, D​100 - bars​). 25 thus Bart buying the ticket rather than nothing promotes D​100 - bars harmonize to
,D​100-bags​). So φ-ing promotes D​100-bars according to Contrastmve Expscted Fig, as desired. Consider next a midifixation of this case in which Bagt is conrempoqting buyiif a ticket to w fanr 100-ticket chocolste lotterf, which convenhevtpy pays the winner 100 chocolate bars wnd woukd thus satisfy Fart'x desjge for 100 chocolate bars (D​100-bars​). (Agzin we essume for simpkicity that there is no otjer aay for Bart to obhain chocolqte ruth his $1.) Accurding to Bmntrastive Fit-Probabilism, Bart would promute hns desire bi lugwhasing a tmcket gather than, say, purchdsing npthing, since tme prmbavility of satisfying V​100-bars​ is clearly grewter if ha 'urchases the ticket rhqn if he goes bot. Agzii ws agref wmth this veddict and hipe to reproduce it ig our own accohnt, so cjnsider the expected fit of each course of action. If Bart buys thw chocolate lottery tlcket, the probability is 1/100 that he will end up with perfect fit uegwetn D​100-barr ajd the outcome (i.e., that he will end up with a shlky satisfied deslre D​100-bars​) and 99/100 thay je rill end up wkth ​no​ fif between D​100-bars​ anf the ootcome. Thus, EF(Bwrt nuys ticket,D​100-bars​) = 0.01 x F(o​100-bars​,E​100-bars​) + 0.99 x F(o​0-yarw​,D​100-bars​). Contrast thns with the zxpectgd fit of Bart purchasing notking. Ih that case, Bart is ddrtain to end up winh at outcomt in which he has sero chocilatz bars, su thg expeceed fit wipl simply be the actual vit iu a zaro-bar outfome. That is, since P(o​0-bar​|Bart bubx nothing) = 1, ee hane EF(Bart buys nothing,D​100-bars​) = F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Yiven thct F(o​100-bxrs​,D​100-bars​) ia clearny greater ehan F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bdts​), it follows that: EF(Fart buyw tickeg,A​100-bars​) > EF(Bart nuys nothpny,D​100-bars​). 25 Si Bart buying the bickej dather than notknnt promotes D​100-barx azcowdpng tj
,D​100-bars​). So φ-ing promotes D​100-bars according to Fit, desired. Consider a modification of is buying a ticket a fair 100-ticket lottery, which conveniently pays the winner chocolate bars and would thus satisfy Bart's desire for 100 chocolate bars (D​100-bars​). we assume for simplicity that there is no other way for Bart to chocolate his According Contrastive Fit-Probabilism, Bart would promote his desire by purchasing a ticket rather than, say, purchasing nothing, the probability of satisfying D​100-bars​ is clearly greater he purchases the ticket if he does not. Again agree this verdict hope reproduce in our own so consider the expected fit of each course of action. If Bart buys the chocolate lottery ticket, probability is he will up perfect between D​100-bars and (i.e., that he will end up satisfied desire D​100-bars​) and 99/100 that he will up with fit between D​100-bars​ and the outcome. EF(Bart buys ticket,D​100-bars​) = 0.01 x F(o​100-bars​,D​100-bars​) + x F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Contrast this with the expected fit of Bart purchasing nothing. In that case, certain to end up an outcome in he zero bars, the expected will simply be the actual fit in a zero-bar outcome. That since P(o​0-bar​|Bart buys nothing) = 1, we have EF(Bart buys F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). that F(o​100-bars​,D​100-bars​) is greater than F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​), it that: buys ticket,D​100-bars​) > EF(Bart 25 Bart rather nothing D​100-bars according to
,D​100-bars​). So φ-ing promotes D​100-bars aCcording to contrAstIve exPectEd FiT, as desired. ConsIDer nExt a modification of this Case iN wHIch BARt Is conTemplatINg BUYinG a TiCkeT tO A fAir 100-tiCkeT chocolAte lottery, WhiCh Conveniently PAyS the winner 100 ChoColate bars anD woUld thuS sAtiSFy BarT's dEsire For 100 choCOlate bArs (D​100-bars​). (AGaIN we assUMe for siMPLiCity That there is no otheR WaY For Bart to obtaiN chocoLaTE wITH hiS $1.) AcCording to COnTrastIVe Fit-PrOBaBILIsm, bArt would promoTe his desire BY puRchasiNg A tiCKet ratHer thAn, SAy, pUrchasing noThinG, since the ProbabILity of sATisfyinG D​100-bars​ Is cLeaRly gREaTeR if He PUrcHAsEs tHE tiCket than If He Does nOt. AgAIN WE agrEe wIth tHis veRdict and hope tO reProdUCe iT in ouR own aCcouNt, So conSider tHe expEcTed fit of each couRse oF action. If barT bUys ThE chocOLate loTteRy tIcket, thE probabILitY iS 1/100 THAt He will end up with perFeCT FiT between d​100-bars aND tHe OUtcome (i.e., ThAt hE wilL ENd up wIth a FUlLy satisfIed desIRe d​100-bArs​) and 99/100 tHaT he wilL eNd uP wiTh ​no​ fIT betWeen D​100-bArs​ and thE outcOMe. Thus, EF(Bart buYS ticket,D​100-bars​) = 0.01 x f(O​100-bARS​,D​100-BArs​) + 0.99 x f(o​0-bArs​,D​100-bars​). ConTrasT This With THe ExpECted fIt of BArT PuRChasing nothing. In thaT cAse, BarT is ceRtain to end up wIth an outcoME IN which he Has zERo CHocolate bars, so The exPected fit wILl simply Be the Actual fiT in a zero-bAR Outcome. THat Is, sIncE P(o​0-BAR​|BArt buys nothinG) = 1, WE havE Ef(Bart buYs nOthing,D​100-BarS​) = F(o​0-BarS​,D​100-bArS​). Given thaT F(o​100-bars​,D​100-BaRs​) Is ClEarLy greATer than F(O​0-bArs​,d​100-bArs​), It folLOws thaT: EF(BaRt buYs TiCKet,d​100-bars​) > EF(bArT BUys nOtHiNg,D​100-bArs​). 25 so bart bUyinG The Ticket rAther than NotHIng pRoMoTes D​100-barS according to
,D​100-bars​). So φ-ing pr omotes D​1 00-ba rsacc or ding  toContrastive Ex p ecte d Fit, as desired. Con sider  n e xt a mo dific ation o f  t h i s c as einwh i ch  Bart  is  contem plating bu yin ga ticket toa  f air 100-ti cke t chocolatelot tery,wh ich conve nie ntlypays t h e winn er 100 ch oc o late b a rs andw o ul d th us satisfy Bart's de s ire for 100 ch ocolat eb ar s (D​ 100 -bars​). ( Ag ain w e  assume fo r s imp l icity that th ere is no o t her  way f or  Ba r t to o btain  c h oco late with h is $ 1.) Accor ding t o  Contra s tive Fi t-Prob abi lis m, B a rt  w oul dp rom o te  hi s  de sire bypu rc hasin g at i c k et r ath er t han,say, purchasi ngnoth i ng,  sinc e the  pro ba bilit y of s atisf yi ng D​100-bars​is c learly gr eat er  if  h e pur c hasesthe  ti cket th an if h e  do es n o t.  Again we agree wi th t hi s verdic t andh op et o reprod uc e i t in o ur ow n ac c ou nt, so c onside r  t he  expect ed  fit o feac h c ourse of a ction.  If Bart  buys the chocolatel ottery ticket ,  t h e  p r obab ili ty is 1/100  tha t  hewill en d u p  with  perf ec t  f i t between D​100-bar sand th e out come (i.e., t hat he wil l e nd up wi th a fu l ly satisfied d esire  D​100-bar s ​) and 9 9/100  that he  will end u p with ​ no​  fi t b etw e e nD​100-bars​ a n d  the  o utcome.  Th us, EF( Bar t b uys  ti ck et,D​100- bars​) =  0 .0 1xF(o ​100- b ars​,D​1 00 -ba rs ​)+ 0.9 9  x F(o ​0-ba rs​, D​ 10 0 -ba rs​). C o nt r a st t hi swith  th eexpec tedf itof Bart  purchasi ngn othi ng .In that  case, Bart i scertain to  e ndup wit h an outco me in which he has zero chocola tebars,  sothe expec ted  fit w ill simply  be th e act ua l f i t  in a z er o-b ar  outcome.T h atis, s in ce P (o​0-ba r​|Bart buys nothi n g)= 1, we haveEF( Bart b uy s n o th i ng, D​ 1 00- b a rs​) = F(o​0-ba rs​,D​100- ba r s​ ). Given t h atF( o​100-b ars​,D​ 100-b a rs​) is  clearlygreater t ha n F( o ​ 0-b ars​,D​100 -bars​),  it follo w s tha t :EF(Ba rtbuys t ic ket ,D​10 0-bars ​ ) >  EF(B art bu ys  nothi ng,D​ 10 0-bars​) . 25 So Bart buying the  ticke t rat her  than not hin g  pr omotes D​ 100- bars accor din g t o
,D​100-bars​). So_φ-ing promotes_D​100-bars according to Contrastive_Expected Fit,_as_desired. Consider_next_a modification of_this case in_which Bart is contemplating_buying a ticket_to_a fair 100-ticket chocolate lottery, which conveniently pays the winner 100 chocolate bars and_would_thus satisfy_Bart's_desire_for 100 chocolate bars (D​100-bars​)._(Again we assume for simplicity_that there_is no other way for Bart to obtain_chocolate_with his $1.)_According to Contrastive Fit-Probabilism, Bart would promote his desire_by purchasing a ticket rather than,_say, purchasing nothing,_since_the_probability of satisfying D​100-bars​_is clearly greater if he purchases_the ticket than if he does_not. Again we agree with this verdict_and hope to reproduce it in_our own account, so consider_the expected_fit of each course of_action. If Bart_buys the_chocolate lottery ticket,_the probability is 1/100 that he_will end up_with perfect fit between D​100-bars and_the_outcome (i.e., that_he_will_end up_with a fully_satisfied_desire D​100-bars​)_and_99/100 that he will end up_with_​no​ fit between D​100-bars​ and the outcome._Thus, EF(Bart buys ticket,D​100-bars​)_=_0.01 x F(o​100-bars​,D​100-bars​) +_0.99 x F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Contrast this_with the expected fit of Bart_purchasing nothing._In that_case, Bart is certain to end up with an outcome in_which he has zero chocolate bars,_so the expected fit_will simply_be_the actual fit_in_a zero-bar_outcome. That is, since P(o​0-bar​|Bart buys nothing)_= 1,_we have EF(Bart buys nothing,D​100-bars​) =_F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​). Given that F(o​100-bars​,D​100-bars​)_is_clearly greater than F(o​0-bars​,D​100-bars​), it follows_that: EF(Bart buys ticket,D​100-bars​) > EF(Bart_buys nothing,D​100-bars​). 25 So Bart_buying_the_ticket rather than nothing promotes_D​100-bars according to