 RB’s coach in the NFL from 1983-1995 with the Chiefs, Packers, Buccaneers, and Bears.



For a team as talented as the Rams, complaints are often made that it’s the coaching preventing the team from getting over.500, earning a playoff berth, etc. It’s early in the offseason, but it appears the Rams are taking the necessary steps to ensure the rubber meets the road when the season kicks off in 2016. This past week, Seagate finally announced a 6TB hard drive, which is three years after their 4TB hard drive. Of course, Hitachi announced their hermetically-sealed helium 6TB hard drives in November, 2013, but only to OEM and cloud customers, not for retail sale.

Hard drive capacities are slowing down as shown in the chart below. To account for the shrinking form factors in the earlier part of the history, and to account for exponential growth, I've scaled the vertical axis to be the logarithm of kilobytes (1000 bytes) per liter.

This three year drought on hard drive capacity increases is represented by the plateau between the last two blue dots in the graph, representing 2011 and 2014. The red line extension to 2020 is based on Seagate's prediction that by then they will have 20TB drives using HAMR technology, which uses a combination of laser and magnetism.

However, if the trendline from 2004-2011 had continued, by linear extrapolation on this log scale, hard drives would have been 600TB by 2020.

This is not good news for users of Big Data. Data sizes (and variety and number of sources) are continuing to grow, but hard drive sizes are leveling off. Horizontal scaling is no longer going to be an option; the days of the monolithic RDBMS are numbered. Worse, data center sizes and energy consumption will increase proportional to growth in data size rather than be tempered by advances in hard drive capacities as we had become accustomed to.

We haven't reached an absolute peak in hard drive capacity, so the term "peak hard drive" is an exaggeration in absolute terms, but relative to corporate data set sizes, I'm guessing we did reach peak hard drive a couple of years ago. Go to about any public square, and you see pigeons pecking at the ground, always in search of crumbs dropped by a passerby. While the pigeons’ scavenging may seem random
RB ’s coach in the NFL from 1983 - 1995 with the Chiefs, Packers, Buccaneers, and Bears. 



 For a team as talented as the Rams, complaints are frequently do that it ’s the coaching preventing the team from getting over.500, earning a playoff mooring, etc. It ’s early in the offseason, but it appears the Rams are take the necessary steps to ensure the rubber eraser meets the road when the season kicks off in 2016. This past workweek, Seagate finally announced a 6 TB hard drive, which is three class after their 4 TB hard drive. Of course, Hitachi announced their hermetically - sealed helium 6 TB difficult drives in November, 2013, but only to OEM and cloud customer, not for retail sale. 

 Hard drive capacity are slow down as shown in the chart under. To account for the shrinking form gene in the earlier part of the history, and to account for exponential growth, I've scaled the vertical axis to be the logarithm of kilobytes (1000 bytes) per liter. 

 This three year drought on hard drive capacity increases is represented by the plateau between the last two gloomy dots in the graph, representing 2011 and 2014. The crimson course extension to 2020 is based on Seagate's prediction that by then they will have 20 TB drives use HAMR engineering, which uses a combination of laser and magnetism. 

 However, if the trendline from 2004 - 2011 had continued, by linear extrapolation on this logarithm scale, hard drives would have been 600 TB by 2020. 

 This is not good news for users of Big Data. datum sizes (and variety and number of sources) are continuing to grow, but hard campaign sizes are leveling off. Horizontal scaling is no longer going to be an option; the days of the massive RDBMS are numbered. Worse, data center sizes and energy consumption will increase proportional to growth in data size quite than be tempered by advance in hard drive capacity as we had become accustomed to. 

 We haven't reached an absolute extremum in hard campaign capacity, so the terminus " peak hard drive " is an exaggeration in absolute terms, but relative to bodied data set sizes, I'm guess we did reach peak hard drive a couple of years ago. rifle to about any public square, and you see pigeon pecking at the ground, always in search of crumbs dropped by a passerby. While the pigeons ’ scavenging may seem random
 RB’d coach in the NFL from 1983-1995 with the Chiefs, Packecs, Bucczneers, avd Bears.



For a team as talentxd aw the Rams, complaints are owten made that it’w tht coaching prevenvjng the team rvom gztving over.500, earnikg a playofx berth, etc. It’v daxly in the offseason, but it appears ehe Ramx wre taking the nectsswry aneks to ensure the rubber meets the road wien the season licks off in 2016. This past wefk, Sfagate finally annlunced a 6TB harq drive, which is three jzars after jheir 4TB hard drive. Of course, Higachi announced tyeig hermeticaloy-seajed helium 6TN hard grives on November, 2013, bmt onny ro OEM and cloud custmmers, not for retayl sale.

Hasd drive capacities aee slmwinc dodb ar sgoxn jn the chert below. Tk account fir the shrinking fotm dactors in ths earlyew part of the history, and to account fog exlonential growth, I've scqled the vertical axid to be tre logarithm of kilobytes (1000 bytes) per liter.

This thsee yxaf dxiught in hard drive capacity increases is represented gy tme plateau betwecn the last two blie dpjs in the grapf, reprzaehting 2011 and 2014. The ref line gxtensuon to 2020 if baxed on Seagate's prediction rhat by then rhey will have 20TB brives using HAMT techmology, which uses a comyinatikn of laser and magnsgism.

However, if tfe nrengline from 2004-2011 had continued, fy linear extxapolatiun om this log scale, hard drives would have heen 600JB by 2020.

Dhis is noh good news for users of Big Dave. Data sizes (sng vdriety aud numner of sources) wre continuing to groc, but fard drive sizes ere leveling off. Horizontdp scaling is no longqr giing to be xv option; the dsys of thv ionooithic RDBMS are nmmbergd. Worse, data cenctr wizes and energu cunstmitipn fill increasa prupofyionau to growth kn dsta size rather than be fempered by advancrs in hard drive cwpacities as ee had become accudtomev to.

We havem't teached an absolute peak in hars drive cwpagity, so the tqrm "ieak hard drivz" is an exaggeration in absolute terms, bnt relative to corporaje data set sizes, I'm yutssing we did reacr peak hasd drive a couple of years ago. Go to sbout any public squade, and you dee pigeons pecking at the ground, always in search of crumbs dropped by a passecbr. While the pigrons’ vccveuging mwy sxeo random
RB’s coach in the NFL from 1983-1995 Chiefs, Buccaneers, and For a team complaints often made that the coaching preventing team from getting over.500, earning a berth, etc. It’s early in the offseason, but it appears the Rams are the necessary steps to ensure the rubber meets the road when the season off 2016. past Seagate finally announced a 6TB hard drive, which is three years after their 4TB hard drive. course, Hitachi announced their hermetically-sealed helium 6TB hard in November, 2013, but to OEM and cloud customers, for sale. Hard capacities slowing as shown in chart below. To account for the shrinking form factors in the earlier part of the history, and account for I've scaled vertical to the logarithm of bytes) per liter. This three year drive capacity increases is represented by the plateau the last blue dots in the graph, representing and 2014. The red line extension to 2020 based on Seagate's prediction that by then they will have 20TB drives using HAMR technology, a combination of laser magnetism. However, if trendline 2004-2011 continued, linear extrapolation this log scale, hard drives would have been 600TB by 2020. is not good news for users of Big Data. Data variety number of sources) continuing to grow, but drive are leveling off. Horizontal no going option; days the monolithic RDBMS are Worse, data center sizes and consumption will increase proportional rather than be tempered by advances in hard capacities as we had become accustomed to. haven't reached an absolute peak in hard drive capacity, so the term hard drive" exaggeration in absolute terms, but relative to corporate set sizes, I'm guessing did reach peak hard drive a couple of years Go about any square, and you pigeons pecking at ground, always in crumbs dropped a While may seem random
 RB’s coach in the NFL from 1983-1995 with tHe Chiefs, PaCkers, bucCanEeRs, anD BeaRs.



For a team as taLEnteD as the Rams, complaints arE ofteN mADe thAT iT’s the CoachinG PrEVEntInG tHe tEaM FrOm getTinG over.500, eaRning a playOff BeRth, etc. It’s earLY iN the offseaSon, But it appears The rams arE tAkiNG the nEceSsary Steps tO Ensure The rubber MeETs the rOAd when tHE SeAson Kicks off in 2016. This pasT WeEK, Seagate finallY annouNcED a 6tb HarD drIve, which is ThRee yeARs after THeIR 4tb haRD drive. Of coursE, Hitachi annOUncEd theiR hErmETicallY-sealEd HEliUm 6TB hard driVes iN November, 2013, But onlY To OEM anD Cloud cuStomerS, noT foR retAIl SaLe.

HArD DriVE cApaCItiEs are sloWiNg Down aS shoWN IN The cHarT belOw. To aCcount for the sHriNkinG ForM factOrs in The eArLier pArt of tHe hisToRy, and to account fOr exPonential GroWtH, I'vE sCaled THe vertIcaL axIs to be tHe logarIThm Of KILObYtes (1000 bytes) per liter.

THiS THrEe year drOught oN HaRd DRive capaCiTy iNcreASEs is rEpreSEnTed by the PlateaU BeTwEen the lAsT two blUe DotS in The grAPh, rePresenTing 2011 and 2014. THe red LIne extension to 2020 IS based on SeagaTE's PREdICtioN thAt by then theY wilL Have 20tB drIVeS usINg HAMr techNoLOgY, Which uses a combinatiOn Of laseR and mAgnetism.

HowevEr, if the treNDLIne from 2004-2011 hAd coNTiNUed, by linear extRapolAtion on thiS Log scale, Hard dRives wouLd have beeN 600tb by 2020.

This iS noT goOd nEws FOR uSers of Big Data. dATa siZeS (and varIetY and numBer Of sOurCes) ArE continuiNg to grow, BuT hArD dRivE sizeS Are levelInG ofF. HOriZontaL ScalinG is no LongEr GoINg tO be an opTIoN; THe daYs Of The mOnoLiThic RdBMS ARe nUmbered. worse, data CenTEr siZeS aNd energY consumption wIlL increase pRoPorTional TO Growth in Data size rather than be temPEred by aDvaNces iN harD drive capAciTies as We hAD becomE accusTomed To.

we hAVEn't reACHeD an AbSolute peak IN HarD drivE cApacIty, so thE term "peak hard drive" IS an Exaggeration iN abSoluTE TeRms, BUt RElaTiVE to CORporate data set sIzes, I'm guesSiNG wE did reach pEAk hArD drive a Couple oF yearS Ago. Go to About any pUblic squaRe, And yOU See Pigeons pecKing at thE ground, alWAys in SEaRch of CruMbs droPpEd bY a pasSerby. WHIle The piGeons’ sCaVenginG may sEeM random
 RB’s coach in the NFL fro m 1983-199 5 wit h t heCh iefs , Pa ckers, Buccane e rs,and Bears.



For a te am as  t a lent e das th e Rams, co m p lai nt sare  o f te n mad e t hat it’ s the coac hin gpreventing t h eteam fromget ting over.50 0,earnin ga p l ayoff  be rth,etc. I t ’s ear ly in the  o f fseaso n , but i t ap pear s the Rams are ta k in g  the necessary  steps  t o  e n s ure  th e rubber m ee ts th e  road w h en t h e s e ason kicks of f in 2016.T his  pastwe ek, Seagat e fin al l y a nnounced a6TBhard driv e, whi c h is th r ee year s afte r t hei r 4T B  h ar d d ri v e.O fcou r se,  Hitachi  a nn ounce d th e i r herm eti call y-sea led helium 6T B h ardd riv es in  Nove mber ,2013,  but o nly t oOEM and cloud c usto mers, not  fo rret ai l sal e .

Har d d riv e capac ities a r e s lo w i n gdown as shown in t he c ha rt below . To a c co un t  for the  s hri nkin g formfact o rs  in theearlie r  p ar t of th ehistor y,  an d t o acc o untfor ex ponentia l gro w th, I've scale d  the vertical ax i s  t o  bethe  logarithmof k i loby tes( 10 00b ytes)  perli t er . 

This three year d ro ught o n har d drive capac ity increa s e s  is repr esen t ed by the plateau  betw een the la s t two bl ue do ts in th e graph,r e presenti ng201 1 a nd2 0 14 . The red lin e exte ns ion to202 0 is ba sed  on  Se aga te 's predic tion tha tby  t he n t hey w i ll have20 TBdr ive s usi n g HAMR  tech nolo gy ,w hic h usesa  c o m bina ti on  oflas er  andmagn e tis m.

How ever, ifthe tren dl in e from2004-2011 had  c ontinued,by  li near e x t rapolati on on this log scale, h a rd driv eswould  hav e been 60 0TB  by 20 20. 
Thisis not  good  n ews f or us e r sofBi g Data. Da t a  si zes ( an d va riety a nd number of sourc e s)are continuin g t o gr o w ,but ha r d d ri v e s i z es are leveling  off. Hori zo n ta l scalingi s n olongergoing t o bea n optio n; the da ys of the  m onol i t hic  RDBMS are  numbere d. Worse, datac en ter s ize s anden erg y con sumpti o n w ill i ncreas epropor tiona lto growt h in data size rather t han be  temp ere d by adva nce s  in  hard dri ve c apacitiesaswehad b eco m e acc usto m ed  to . 

Wehave n 't reache d  a n a b s ol ute peak in h a rddrive  ca p acity,  sothe term "peak ha r d drive" is an  exa g g era tio n  inab solute terms,but  r e l ative to  c orporate da ta set s iz e s, I' m gues sing w e did r e a ch peak h arddri ve a coup leof years a go .G o to a bout  a ny pub lic sq u are, a nd you see pigeo ns pe c k ing a t  th e gro un d, alwa y s in  search of  crumbs dro pped b y apasse rby. Wh il e thepig eo ns’ scaven g ing may s eem r andom
 RB’s_coach in_the NFL from 1983-1995_with the_Chiefs,_Packers, Buccaneers,_and_Bears.



For a team_as talented as_the Rams, complaints are_often made that_it’s_the coaching preventing the team from getting over.500, earning a playoff berth, etc. It’s_early_in the_offseason,_but_it appears the Rams are_taking the necessary steps to_ensure the_rubber meets the road when the season kicks_off_in 2016. This_past week, Seagate finally announced a 6TB hard drive,_which is three years after their_4TB hard drive._Of_course,_Hitachi announced their hermetically-sealed_helium 6TB hard drives in November,_2013, but only to OEM and_cloud customers, not for retail sale.

Hard drive_capacities are slowing down as shown_in the chart below. To_account for_the shrinking form factors in_the earlier part_of the_history, and to_account for exponential growth, I've scaled_the vertical axis_to be the logarithm of kilobytes_(1000_bytes) per liter.

This_three_year_drought on_hard drive capacity_increases_is represented_by_the plateau between the last two_blue_dots in the graph, representing 2011 and_2014. The red line_extension_to 2020 is based_on Seagate's prediction that by_then they will have 20TB drives_using HAMR_technology, which_uses a combination of laser and magnetism.

However, if the trendline from_2004-2011 had continued, by linear extrapolation_on this log scale,_hard drives_would_have been 600TB_by_2020.

This is_not good news for users of Big_Data. Data_sizes (and variety and number of_sources) are continuing to_grow,_but hard drive sizes are leveling_off. Horizontal scaling is no longer_going to be an option;_the_days_of the monolithic RDBMS are_numbered. Worse, data center sizes and_energy consumption will_increase proportional to growth in data size_rather_than be tempered by advances in_hard_drive capacities as we had become_accustomed_to.

We_haven't reached an absolute peak_in hard drive capacity, so the_term "peak hard drive" is an exaggeration in absolute_terms, but relative_to corporate data set sizes,_I'm_guessing_we did reach peak hard drive a couple of years_ago. Go_to about any_public square, and you see pigeons pecking at the ground,_always in search of crumbs dropped by_a passerby. While the pigeons’ scavenging may seem random