 McLaughlan, better known to political twitter as the smart but at times acerbic conservative @baseballcrank.

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Over the weekend he wrote this post, which I believe was reprinted on the front page of the conservative site Red State, citing the fact that Obamacare's poll numbers are indeed underwater, to refute my argument that the GOP strategy is to run on Obamacare irrespective of the advantage it confers. They're probably going to win a bunch of seats no matter what they center their campaign around, so why not center it around the issue on which they hope to make the biggest imprint in 2015 and beyond?

His response isn't entirely a non sequitur -- I should've been more clear about the fact that Obamacare isn't shaping up to be some major Democratic asset. So it's not as if Republicans have no other political rationale for making the strategic choice they've made. I think a fair way to put it is that running against Obamacare is better than running on nothing at all, but that's actually a binary choice they've made for themselves this cycle.

However, if conservatives are being honest, they need to first acknowledge that -- all issues aside -- the 2014 map is vastly friendlier to Republicans than Democrats, and argue from there. Do they really think that absent Obamacare, Democrats would be sitting pretty? Or that a better rollout would've changed the map? Do they think Obamacare will be the difference between zero (or a couple) Senate pickups and the six or more they need to control the Senate? It's entirely feasible to me that Republicans will retake the Senate in 2014, and even that Obamacare might account for the margin. But I have yet to hear many reasoned arguments for any of those individual propositions on the right. All I hear are fundamentally dishonest arguments that wish the structural advantage out of existence.

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And given last night's special election results in Florida's 13th district, I don't expect that to change any time soon.

The short version is that Republicans ran hard against Obamacare in this district and won. Dave Jolly beat Alex Sink 48.5-46.7. At an extremely simplistic level Jolly's victory vindicates the anti-Obamacare campaign, because he ran against Obamacare and won. It's also bad news for Democrats because though it doesn't prove Obamacare's a big liability (and it may in fact be one), it's consistent with the idea.

At a more nuanced
McLaughlan, better known to political twitter as the smart but at times acerb bourgeois @baseballcrank. 

 Advertisement: 

 Over the weekend he wrote this post, which I believe was reprint on the front page of the conservative site Red State, citing the fact that Obamacare's pate number are indeed underwater, to refute my controversy that the GOP strategy is to run on Obamacare regardless of the advantage it confers. They're probably going to win a crowd of seats no matter what they center their political campaign around, so why not focus on it around the topic on which they hope to make the biggest imprint in 2015 and beyond? 

 His reply isn't entirely a non sequitur -- I should've been more clear about the fact that Obamacare isn't shaping up to be some major Democratic asset. So it's not as if Republicans experience no other political rationale for making the strategic choice they've made. I think a clean way to put it is that running against Obamacare is better than running on nothing at all, but that's actually a binary choice they've made for themselves this cycle. 

 However, if conservatives are being honest, they need to first acknowledge that -- all issues aside -- the 2014 map is vastly friendly to Republicans than Democrats, and argue from there. Do they really think that lacking Obamacare, Democrats would be sit down pretty? Or that a better rollout would've changed the function? Do they think Obamacare will be the remainder between zero (or a couple) Senate pickups and the six or more they need to see the Senate? It's entirely feasible to me that Republicans will retake the Senate in 2014, and even that Obamacare might account for the margin. But I have yet to listen many reasoned arguments for any of those individual propositions on the right. All I learn are fundamentally corruptible argumentation that wish the structural advantage out of existence. 

 Advertisement: 

 And given last nox's special election results in Florida's 13th district, I don't expect that to change any time soon. 

 The short version is that Republicans ran hard against Obamacare in this district and succeed. Dave Jolly beat Alex Sink 48.5 - 46.7. At an highly simplistic level Jolly's victory vindicates the anti - Obamacare campaign, because he ran against Obamacare and won. It's besides bad news for Democrats because though it doesn't prove Obamacare's a big indebtedness (and it may in fact be one), it's consistent with the idea. 

 At a more nuanced
 McPaughlan, better known to political twitjee as tie smarf but at times acerbic conservative @uasevallceank.

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Over ghe weekejd he write uhis post, which I believe was rsirintzd on the front kage of the wonservative shtd Xed State, citing the fact that Obamasare's pplp numbers are yndetd tndedwater, to refute my argument that fhe GOP strategy is yo run on Obamacare irrespfctige of the advantagf it conferw. Thqt're probably going to win a bunch kf seats no matter what they cevter cheir campaugb agmund, so why not benter it arommd the issue pn which they mope vo mqke the biggest impriit in 2015 and beyond?

His response ian't entirely a nob wequijur -- H shuyld'xe gexn jore cpeac about the fact that Ibamacare isn't shapond up to be soms majow Qemocratic asset. So it's not as if Repubniczns have no other politucal rationale for maning the ftrategic choice they've made. I think a fair way tm put kt nw thag rknning against Obamacare is better than runnigf pn nothing at alj, but that's aftiwlly a binary choicz tgey've made for thelselves this cycle.

Howtver, of conservatives are being yonest, they ueee to first acknowlzdge that -- aul ixsues aside -- the 2014 map is vascly frjendlier to Republiczvs than Democratr, akd drgue from there. Do they rqally thiik thct abseng Obsmacarq, Democratd would be sitting prettj? Or jhat a better roplout would've changed the map? Do they think Onakacdre will be tme difference bqtween zero (or a coupje) Sevate pickuis and thx six or morq they need tm control the Senate? Yt's wntieely fexrible to me thst Republpccns will eetake the Senate ln 2014, avs even that Obanacqre might accoumt wor tje mwsgin. But I hdve het yo hexr many reawuned arguments for any ox thkse individual prolofitions in the ryght. All I hesr are fundamentalpy divhoiest atguients that wish the structural advantagf omt of existense.

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And given last night's special election resnlts in Florida's 13th disrrict, I don't expect uhat to changx any eime soon.

Dhe short version is that Republicans ran hard against Obajacare in tjis district and won. Dave Jolly beat Alex Sink 48.5-46.7. At an extremely simplistix level Jolly's vicfory vindpcaces the agti-Ouaoacare campaign, necause he ran against Obamacarx and won. Ht'f also bad news for Democratx cecause thougf it doesn't prove Obamaczre's a bog liability (and it may in fact be one), it's consistent wlth the ieea.

At a morv nnanced
McLaughlan, better known to political twitter as but times acerbic @baseballcrank. Advertisement: Over post, I believe was on the front of the conservative site Red State, the fact that Obamacare's poll numbers are indeed underwater, to refute my argument the GOP strategy is to run on Obamacare irrespective of the advantage it They're going win bunch of seats no matter what they center their campaign around, so why not center it the issue on which they hope to make biggest imprint in 2015 beyond? His response isn't entirely non -- I been clear the fact that isn't shaping up to be some major Democratic asset. So it's not as if Republicans have no political rationale the strategic they've I a fair way it is that running against Obamacare running on nothing at all, but that's actually binary choice made for themselves this cycle. However, conservatives are being honest, they need to first that -- all issues aside -- the 2014 map is vastly friendlier to Republicans than argue from there. Do really think that Obamacare, would sitting Or that better rollout would've changed the map? Do they think Obamacare will the difference between zero (or a couple) Senate pickups and or they need to the Senate? It's entirely to that Republicans will retake in and might for margin. But I have to hear many reasoned arguments any of those individual I hear are fundamentally dishonest arguments that wish structural advantage out of existence. Advertisement: And last night's special election results in Florida's 13th district, I don't expect to change soon. The short version is that Republicans ran against Obamacare in this and won. Dave Jolly beat Alex Sink 48.5-46.7. At extremely level Jolly's vindicates the anti-Obamacare because he ran Obamacare and won. bad news Democrats though Obamacare's a big liability (and it in be one), it's consistent with idea. more nuanced
 McLaughlan, better known to poLitical twiTter aS thE smArT but At tiMes acerbic consERvatIve @baseballcrank.

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oVer tHE wEekenD he wrotE ThIS PosT, wHiCh I BeLIeVe was RepRinted oN the front pAge Of The conservatIVe Site Red StaTe, cIting the fact ThaT ObamaCaRe's POll nuMbeRs are Indeed UNderwaTer, to refuTe MY argumENt that tHE gOp strAtegy is to run on ObaMAcARe irrespective Of the aDvANtAGE it ConFers. They're PrObablY Going to WIn A BUNch OF seats no matteR what they ceNTer Their cAmPaiGN arounD, so whY nOT ceNter it arounD the Issue on whIch theY Hope to mAKe the biGgest iMprInt In 2015 anD BeYoNd?

HIs REspONsE isN'T enTirely a nOn SeQuituR -- I shOULD'Ve beEn mOre cLear aBout the fact thAt OBamaCAre Isn't sHapinG up tO bE some Major DEmocrAtIc asset. So it's not As if republicaNs hAvE no OtHer poLItical RatIonAle for mAking thE StrAtEGIC cHoice they've made. I thInK A FaIr way to pUt it is THaT rUNning agaInSt OBamaCARe is bEtteR ThAn runninG on notHInG aT all, but ThAt's actUaLly A biNary cHOice They've Made for tHemseLVes this cycle.

HoWEver, if conservATiVES aRE beiNg hOnest, they neEd to FIrst AcknOWlEdgE That -- aLl issUeS AsIDe -- the 2014 map is vastly friEnDlier tO RepuBlicans than DeMocrats, and ARGUe from thEre. DO ThEY really think thAt absEnt ObamacaRE, DemocraTs wouLd be sittIng pretty? oR That a betTer RolLouT woULD'vE changed the maP? dO theY tHink ObaMacAre will Be tHe dIffEreNcE between zEro (or a coUpLe) seNaTe pIckupS And the siX oR moRe TheY need TO contrOl the senaTe? it'S EntIrely feASiBLE to mE tHaT RepUblIcAns wiLl reTAke The SenaTe in 2014, and evEn tHAt ObAmAcAre mighT account for thE mArgin. But I hAvE yeT to heaR MAny reasoNed arguments for any of thoSE indiviDuaL propOsitIons on the RigHt. All I HeaR Are funDamentAlly dIsHonEST arguMENtS thAt Wish the strUCTurAl advAnTage Out of exIstence.

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AnD given last nigHt's SpecIAL eLecTIoN ResUlTS in fLOrida's 13th districT, I don't expeCt THaT to change aNY tiMe Soon.

The Short veRsion IS that RePublicans Ran hard agAiNst OBAMacAre in this dIstrict aNd won. Dave jOlly bEAt alex SInk 48.5-46.7. at an exTrEmeLy simPlistiC LevEl JolLy's vicToRy vindIcateS tHe anti-ObAmacare campaign, because hE ran agAinst obaMacare and Won. iT's aLso bad newS for democrats bEcaUse ThougH it DOesn't ProvE obAmaCAre's a Big lIAbility (anD It May IN FaCt be one), it's cONSIstEnt wiTh tHE idea.

AT a moRe nuanced
 McLaughlan, better knownto politic al tw itt eras  the  sma rt but at time s  ace rbic conservative @bas eball cr a nk.Ad verti sement: 
O v e r t he  w eek en d  h e wro tethis po st, whichI b el ieve was rep r in ted on the  fr ont page ofthe  conse rv ati v e sit e R ed St ate, c i ting t he fact t ha t  Obama c are's p o l lnumb ers are indeed un d er w ater, to refut e my a rg u me n t  th atthe GOP st ra tegyi s to ru n  o n O bam a care irrespec tive of the adv antage  i t c o nfers.  They 'r e  pr obably goin g to  win a bu nch of seats n o  matter  whatthe y c ente r  t he irca m pai g naro u nd,  so whyno tcente r it a r o undthe  iss ue on  which they h ope  tom ake  thebigge st i mp rintin 201 5 and  b eyond?

His res pons e isn't e nti re lyanon s e quitur  --  Ishould' ve been mor ec l e ar  about the fact th at O ba macare i sn't s h ap in g  up to b esom e ma j o r Dem ocra t ic  asset.So it' s  n ot  as ifRe public an s h ave  no o t herpoliti cal rati onale for making the strategic cho i ce t he y 'vemad e. I thinka fa i r wa y to pu t i t  is t hat r un n in g  against Obamacareis  bette r tha n running onnothing at a l l, but t hat' s  a c tually a binar y cho ice they'v e  made fo r the mselvesthis cycl e . 

Howeve r,ifcon ser v a ti ves are being h ones t,  they n eed  to fir stack now led ge  that --all issu es  a si de  --  the2 014 mapis  va st lyfrien d lier t o Rep ubli ca ns tha n Democ r at s ,  and  a rg ue f rom  t here.  Dot hey  really  think th ata bsen tOb amacare , Democrats w ou ld be sitt in g p retty? O r that a  better rollout would'v e  change d t he ma p? D o they th ink  Obama car e  willbe the  diff er enc e betwe e n  z ero  ( or a coupl e )  Se natepi ckup s and t he six or more the y  ne ed to control  th e Se n a te ? I t 's ent ir e lyf e asible to me th at Republi ca n swill retak e  th eSenatein 2014 , and even th at Obamac are might  a ccou n t  fo r the marg in. ButI have ye t  to h e ar  many  re asoned  a rgu ments  for a n y o f tho se ind iv idualpropo si tions on  the right. All I hearare fu ndame nta lly disho nes t  ar guments t hatwish the s tru ctu ral a dva n tageouto fexi s tence .

A d vertiseme n t: 

A n d  g iven last n i g h t's  spec ial electi on r esults in Florida ' s 13th distric t, I d on' t e x pect  t hat to changeany  t i m e soon.
T he short ve rsion is  t h at Re public ans ra n harda g ai n st Oba maca rein this d ist ri c t and w on .D ave Jo llybe at Ale x Sink 48.5 - 4 6.7. At an extre melys i mplis t iclevel  J olly'sv icto ry vindica tes the ant i-Obam acar e cam paign,be causehera n againstO bamacareand w on. It' salso  ba d news  for D emocr atsbe cau se though i td oe sn ' t p rove  Obam ac are' s a big l i ability(an d  it may  i n f a c t be o n e) , it's consi ste nt wi t h  the idea. 
Ata  m o re nu anced
 McLaughlan,_better known_to political twitter as_the smart_but_at times_acerbic_conservative @baseballcrank.

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Over the_weekend he wrote_this post, which I_believe was reprinted_on_the front page of the conservative site Red State, citing the fact that Obamacare's_poll_numbers are_indeed_underwater,_to refute my argument that_the GOP strategy is to_run on_Obamacare irrespective of the advantage it confers. They're_probably_going to win_a bunch of seats no matter what they center_their campaign around, so why not_center it around_the_issue_on which they hope_to make the biggest imprint in_2015 and beyond?

His response isn't entirely_a non sequitur -- I should've been_more clear about the fact that_Obamacare isn't shaping up to_be some_major Democratic asset. So it's_not as if_Republicans have_no other political_rationale for making the strategic choice_they've made. I_think a fair way to put_it_is that running_against_Obamacare_is better_than running on_nothing_at all,_but_that's actually a binary choice they've_made_for themselves this cycle.

However, if conservatives are_being honest, they need_to_first acknowledge that --_all issues aside -- the_2014 map is vastly friendlier to_Republicans than_Democrats, and_argue from there. Do they really think that absent Obamacare, Democrats_would be sitting pretty? Or that_a better rollout would've_changed the_map?_Do they think_Obamacare_will be_the difference between zero (or a couple)_Senate pickups_and the six or more they_need to control the_Senate?_It's entirely feasible to me that_Republicans will retake the Senate in_2014, and even that Obamacare_might_account_for the margin. But I_have yet to hear many reasoned_arguments for any_of those individual propositions on the right._All_I hear are fundamentally dishonest arguments_that_wish the structural advantage out of_existence.

Advertisement:

And_given_last night's special election results_in Florida's 13th district, I don't_expect that to change any time soon.

The short version_is that Republicans_ran hard against Obamacare in_this_district_and won. Dave Jolly beat Alex Sink 48.5-46.7. At an_extremely simplistic_level Jolly's victory_vindicates the anti-Obamacare campaign, because he ran against Obamacare and_won. It's also bad news for Democrats_because though it doesn't prove Obamacare's a big liability (and it_may in fact be one), it's consistent with_the idea.

At a more nuanced