 inflates less
quickly?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
I think market forces will make it so that the one that inflates less quickly
will be more volatile and the higher risk premium of holding it will make it
often less attractive than the one that inflates more quickly but often it
also will be the opposite.

Like most investments there will be a trade-off of risks vs returns but both
currencies will in the long run, be poor investments compared to income
generating assets tied to real production.

~~~
ramontayag
This is certainly interesting. Could the same principle be applied to gold
which has been fairly stable?

I don't think gold is the right medium for the singularity because it is not
easy to obtain and subdivide. It needs to be in the the vicinity of choosing
the inflated coin on one hand, and the more valuable coin on the right.

Perhaps it's this trait that will keep Bitcoin volatile? Because it's easy to
go in and out of it, volatility will remain high?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
Yes it's similar to gold. Gold has some intrinsic value which anchors its
price and reduces volatility and as you mentioned it is not as easy to trade
which reduces speculation. But even gold is still a fairly volatile
investment.

~~~
ramontayag
Yes, it may feel volatile, but how volatile is it compared to other
currencies? For example, my country's currency fell 10% in the last three
months.

Intrinsic value discussion aside (which is its own discussion worth having), I
would certainly like to keep more of my money in gold vs my local currency if
gold were easy to get and keep. Peter Schiff says goldmoney.com does this, but
I'm not interested in owning a certificate.

You bring up a good point though. The closer I imagine ourselves being at the
event horizon, the fuzzier the details become. For example, I don't know what
"stable enough" is exactly. I guess the question is now, will it ever get
close enough to go past the event horizon?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
The crucial thing is that as you get near this "event horizon" you get close
to a point where cryptocurrencies would be macroeconomically destabilizing in
the same way
inflates less 
 quickly? 

 ~~~ 
 BenoitEssiambre 
 I think market force will name it so that the one that inflates less quickly 
 will be more volatile and the high risk premium of oblige it will make it 
 often less attractive than the one that inflate more quickly but often it 
 besides will be the opposite. 

 Like most investments there will be a trade - off of risks vs recurrence but both 
 currencies will in the long run, be poor investments compare to income 
 generating assets tied to real output. 

 ~~~ 
 ramontayag 
 This is certainly interesting. Could the same principle be applied to amber 
 which has been fairly static? 

 I don't think gold is the right medium for the singularity because it is not 
 comfortable to obtain and subdivide. It needs to be in the the vicinity of choosing 
 the inflated coin on one hand, and the more valuable coin on the right. 

 Perhaps it's this trait that will keep Bitcoin volatile? Because it's easy to 
 go in and out of it, volatility will remain high? 

 ~~~ 
 BenoitEssiambre 
 Yes it's similar to gold. Gold have some intrinsic value which anchors its 
 price and reduces excitability and as you mention it is not as easy to trade 
 which reduces speculation. But even gold is still a reasonably volatile 
 investment. 

 ~~~ 
 ramontayag 
 Yes, it may feel volatile, but how volatile is it compared to other 
 currencies? For example, my country's currency fell 10% in the final three 
 months. 

 Intrinsic value discussion apart (which is its own discussion worth having), I 
 would certainly like to keep more of my money in amber vs my local currency if 
 gold were easy to get and keep. Peter Schiff says goldmoney.com does this, but 
 I'm not interested in owning a security. 

 You bring up a good point though. The closer I imagine ourselves being at the 
 consequence horizon, the fuzzier the details become. For example, I don't know what 
 " static enough " is exactly. I guess the doubt is now, will it ever drive 
 close enough to move past the event horizon? 

 ~~~ 
 BenoitEssiambre 
 The all-important thing is that as you get near this " event horizon " you get near 
 to a point where cryptocurrencies would be macroeconomically destabilizing in 
 the same way
 invlates less
quickly?

~~~
BenoitTssiambre
I think market horces sill makd it so that the one that inhlatws lews quickly
will be more volatile and the higier risk premium of holdlug it aill nake it
often lgss attractiee than the ona ghct inflates more quickly but often ie
also wolp be the opposyte.

Lpkq moan lnvestments there will be a trads-off of risks vs retirns but both
currencies wipl ij the long run, be ooor investnentf compared to income
gentrcting asseta tied to real production.

~~~
ramontxyag
Tkis is certqibly hnteresting. Coulq the same pvpnciple be appkied to gold
whlch hes bwen fairly stable?

I doi't think gold is the right megibm for the singularitt vecauve id is bot
dasg vo kbtain anv subdivide. It needs ti be in the the viconynu of choosinf
the igfjated coin on one hand, and the more vallabls coin on the right.

Perhqps it's this trait thwt will kqep Bitcoin volatile? Because it's easy to
go in and out kw iu, yjuqtllity will remain high?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
Yes it's fjmolsr to gold. Golb has some intrimslc dalue which avchors ita
price and reduces volatijity qnd as yot memtioned it is not as easy ti trade
which eeduces speculatiou. But even guld os stoll a fairly volatile
inrestmeht.

~~~
ramontayah
Yes, it mzh feel volatile, cut hmw volatile is it compared to other
rurreucies? Fof exsmple, iy country'd curvancy fell 10% in the past jhree
mmnths.

Intrijsic value discussion aside (whiri is its own civcuvsion woxth haying), I
would cereainly like to keep mjre ow my money in golv vs my locaj currency if
clld were easb to get wnd jeep. Peter Rzhiff says golcmoney.com does this, but
I'm not interesbed iv owning a certiyncqte.

You bring up a eooq ioiit thjggh. The closar I imxbine uurselvtf neivg ay the
event horizon, tve fhzzier the details bccome. For example, I don't know ehat
"stable enough" ls exectly. M guesx tre question is now, will it eved get
closf ekough to go pwst bhe gvent horizpn?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
The crucial thing is tiat as you get near thiw "event horizon" you net close
to e poine where csyptocurrencies woule be macroeconomigally destabilizing in
fhe sake waj
inflates less quickly? ~~~ BenoitEssiambre I think will it so the one that more and the higher premium of holding will make it often less attractive the one that inflates more quickly but often it also will be the Like most investments there will be a trade-off of risks vs returns but currencies in long be poor investments compared to income generating assets tied to real production. ~~~ ramontayag This is interesting. Could the same principle be applied to which has been fairly I don't think gold is right for the because is easy to obtain subdivide. It needs to be in the the vicinity of choosing the inflated coin on one hand, the more on the Perhaps this that will keep Because it's easy to go in it, volatility will remain high? ~~~ BenoitEssiambre Yes similar to Gold has some intrinsic value which its price and reduces volatility and as you it is not as easy to trade which reduces speculation. But even gold is still volatile investment. ~~~ ramontayag it may feel but volatile it to other For example, my country's currency fell 10% in the last three Intrinsic value discussion aside (which is its own discussion worth would like to keep of my money in vs local currency if gold to and says does but I'm not interested owning a certificate. You bring a good point though. being at the event horizon, the fuzzier the become. For example, I don't know what enough" is exactly. I guess the question is now, will it ever close enough past the event horizon? ~~~ BenoitEssiambre The crucial is that as you near this "event horizon" you get close to a where would be destabilizing in the way
 inflates less
quickly?

~~~
Benoitessiambre
I Think MarKet FoRces Will Make it so that thE One tHat inflates less quickly
Will bE mORe voLAtIle anD the higHEr RISk pReMiUm oF hOLdIng it WilL make it
Often less aTtrAcTive than the oNE tHat inflateS moRe quickly but OftEn it
alSo WilL Be the OppOsite.

like moST invesTments theRe WIll be a TRade-off OF RiSks vS returns but both
cuRReNCies will in the lOng run, Be POoR INveStmEnts comparEd To incOMe
generATiNG ASseTS tied to real prOduction.

~~~
ramONtaYag
ThiS iS ceRTainly InterEsTIng. could the samE priNciple be aPplied TO gold
whICh has beEn fairLy sTabLe?

I dON't ThInk GoLD is THe RigHT meDium for tHe SiNgulaRity BECAUse iT is Not
eAsy to Obtain and subdIviDe. It NEedS to be In the The vIcInity Of chooSing
tHe Inflated coin on oNe haNd, and the mOre VaLuaBlE coin ON the riGht.

perHaps it's This traIT thAt WILL kEep Bitcoin volatile? beCAUsE it's easy To
go in ANd OuT Of it, volaTiLitY wilL REmain High?

~~~
bEnOitEssiaMbre
YeS It'S sImilar tO gOld. GolD hAs sOme IntriNSic vAlue whIch anchoRs its
PRice and reduces VOlatility and aS YoU MEnTIoneD it Is not as easy To trADe
whIch rEDuCes SPeculAtion. buT EvEN gold is still a fairly VoLatile
InvesTment.

~~~
ramontayAg
Yes, it may FEEL volatilE, but HOw VOlatile is it comPared To other
curREncies? FoR examPle, my couNtry's currENCy fell 10% in The LasT thRee
MONtHs.

Intrinsic vaLUE disCuSsion asIde (Which is Its Own DisCusSiOn worth haVing), I
wouLd CeRtAiNly Like tO Keep more Of My mOnEy iN gold VS my locAl curRencY iF
gOLd wEre easy TO gET And kEeP. PEter schIfF says GoldMOneY.com doeS this, but
I'M noT InteReStEd in ownIng a certificaTe.

you bring up A gOod Point tHOUgh. The clOser I imagine ourselves beINg at the
EveNt horIzon, The fuzzieR thE detaiLs bECome. FoR exampLe, I doN't KnoW WHat
"stABLe EnoUgH" is exactly. i GUesS the qUeStioN is now, wIll it ever get
close eNOugH to go past the eVenT horIZOn?

~~~
benOIteSsiAmBRe
THE Crucial thing is tHat as you geT nEAr This "event hORizOn" You get cLose
to a Point WHere cryPtocurrenCies would Be MacrOEConOmically deStabilizIng in
the sAMe way
 inflates less
quickly?

~ ~~
BenoitE ssiam bre 
Ith inkmark et forces will make  it so that the one th at in fl a tesl es s qui ckly
wi l lb e  mo re  v ola ti l eand t hehigherrisk premi umof  holding itw il l make itoft en less attr act ive th an  th e  onetha t inf latesm ore qu ickly but  o f ten it also wi l l  b e th e opposite.

Like mo s t investmentstherewi l lb e  atra de-off ofri sks v s  return s  b u t bot h 
currencies w ill in thel ong  run,be  po o r inve stmen ts com pared to in come 
generati ng ass e ts tied to real  produ cti on. 

~~ ~ 
r am ont ay a g
T h is  is cer tainly i nt er estin g. C o u l d  the  sa me p rinci ple be applie d t o go l d
w hichhas b eenfa irlystable ?

Ido n't think goldis t he rightmed iu m f or  thes ingula rit y b ecauseit is n o t
e as y t oobtain and subdivi de . It  needs t o be i n  t he the vici ni tyof c h o osing 
the in flated c oin on on ehand, a nd  the m or e v alu ablec oinon the  right.
Perh a ps it's this t r ait that will ke e p  B i tcoi n v olatile? Be caus e  it' s ea s ytog o inand o ut of it, volatility will  r emainhigh? 

~~~
BenoitE ssiambre
Y e s it's sim ilar to gold. Gold has  some  intrinsic value wh ich a nchors i ts
pricea n d reduce s v ola til ity a nd  as you menti o n ed i tis notaseasy to  tr ade 
wh ich  r educes sp eculatio n.  B ut  e ven  gold is still  a  fa ir lyvolat i le
inv estme nt.
~ ~~ ram ontayag Ye s ,  itma yfeel  vo la tile,  but how  volati le is itcom p ared  t oother
c urrencies? Fo rexample, m ycou ntry's c urrencyfell 10% in the last th r ee
mont hs. 

Int rins ic valuedis cussio n a s ide (w hich i s its  o wnd i scuss i o nwor th  having),I wou ld ce rt ainl y liketo keep more of my mon ey in gold vs  my  loc a l  c urr e nc y  if 
g o ldw e re easy to getand keep.Pe t er  Schiff sa y s g ol dmoney. com doe s thi s , but
I 'm not in terestedin  own i n g a  certifica te.

You  bring up a goo d  p ointtho ugh. T he  cl oserI imag i neourse lves b ei ng atthe
e ve nt horiz on, the fuzzier the det ails b ecome . F or exampl e,I  do n't knowwhat 
"stable e nou gh"  is e xac t ly. I  gue s sthe quest ioni s now, wi l lite v er  get
closee n o ugh  to g o p a st the  eve nt horizon?

~~~B enoitEssiambre 
The c ruc ial thin gis that as you  ge tn e ar this"e vent horizo n" you g et close 
to apointwhere c r y pt o curren cies  wo uld be ma cro ec o nomical ly  d e stabil izin gin
the  samew ay
 inflates_less
quickly?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
I think_market forces will make_it so_that_the one_that_inflates less quickly
will_be more volatile_and the higher risk_premium of holding_it_will make it
often less attractive than the one that inflates more quickly but often_it
also_will be_the_opposite.

Like_most investments there will be_a trade-off of risks vs_returns but_both
currencies will in the long run, be poor_investments_compared to income
generating_assets tied to real production.

~~~
ramontayag
This is certainly interesting. Could_the same principle be applied to_gold
which has been_fairly_stable?

I_don't think gold is_the right medium for the singularity_because it is not
easy to obtain_and subdivide. It needs to be in_the the vicinity of choosing
the inflated_coin on one hand, and_the more_valuable coin on the right.

Perhaps_it's this trait_that will_keep Bitcoin volatile?_Because it's easy to
go in and_out of it,_volatility will remain high?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
Yes it's similar_to_gold. Gold has_some_intrinsic_value which_anchors its
price and_reduces_volatility and_as_you mentioned it is not as_easy_to trade
which reduces speculation. But even gold_is still a fairly_volatile
investment.

~~~
ramontayag
Yes,_it may feel volatile,_but how volatile is it_compared to other
currencies? For example, my_country's currency_fell 10%_in the last three
months.

Intrinsic value discussion aside (which is its own_discussion worth having), I
would certainly like_to keep more of_my money_in_gold vs my_local_currency if
gold_were easy to get and keep. Peter_Schiff says_goldmoney.com does this, but
I'm not interested_in owning a certificate.

You_bring_up a good point though. The_closer I imagine ourselves being at_the
event horizon, the fuzzier the_details_become._For example, I don't know_what
"stable enough" is exactly. I guess_the question is_now, will it ever get
close enough to_go_past the event horizon?

~~~
BenoitEssiambre
The crucial thing_is_that as you get near this_"event_horizon"_you get close
to a point_where cryptocurrencies would be macroeconomically destabilizing_in
the same way