
thousands of customers, you can have a much more accurate estimate. This is
the law of large numbers. For a simpler example, you wouldn't want to bet on
the outcome of a single coin toss, but it's a pretty safe bet that if you toss
a (fair) coin a million times, the heads percentage will be _very_ close to
50%.

Fair Issac played the game by lending to lots of customers. _YouNoodle is
trying to play this game for each individual case._ They're bold enough to
mathematically estimate the value of one individual startup, and say that they
have some confidence in it. It's the analog of making a loan to 1 person,
insuring 1 person, or betting on a single coin flip. Probability tells you
this is very risky. VC don't make thousands of bets like insurers or banks do.
For the bank, my individual outcome doesn't really matter to the big picture.
VCs on the other hand invest in a very small number of startups - each startup
matters.

~~~
dkokelley
I haven't used their site, and I don't have a startup to use with it (so if
this is exactly what they do then I apologize), but a tool that states "20% of
startups in your industry with similar circumstances succeeded. Here are some
ways you can increase your percentage." and then shows different ways that a
startup could increase its chances based on the statistical data would be
interesting to me as a startup founder, and I think it would be helpful to VCs
and others as a pre-screening tool for their investments.

------
aneesh
Even as a self-proclaimed math nerd, I'll be the first to admit that certain
things just don't lend themselves well to predictive models. You can probably
predict success _in aggregate_, but the individual cases are really tough to
predict in situations where a lot of luck is involved (dating, starting a
company, etc). Stop trying to find a mathematical formula for the success of a
startup. It's hard to find a good one.

I think they're overestimating the valuations. Most startups' valuations will
go to ZERO within 2-3 years, and yet YouNoodle tells you anyone is worth
millions. I played around with their numbers: a startup
thousands of customers, you can have a much more accurate appraisal. This is 
 the jurisprudence of large numbers. For a bare exemplar, you wouldn't want to bet on 
 the consequence of a unmarried coin toss, but it's a pretty safe bet that if you convulse 
 a (fair) coin a million times, the mind percentage will be _ very _ close to 
 50% . 

 Fair Issac played the plot by lending to lots of customers. _ YouNoodle is 
 test to play this game for each individual font. _ They're bold enough to 
 mathematically calculate the value of one individual startup, and read that they 
 have some confidence in it. It's the analog of make a loan to 1 person, 
 insuring 1 person, or betting on a single coin flip. Probability tell you 
 this is very risky. VC don't make thousands of bets like insurers or banks do. 
 For the bank, my individual outcome doesn't really count to the large picture. 
 VCs on the early bridge player induct in a very small number of startup - each startup 
 matters. 

 ~~~ 
 dkokelley 
 I haven't used their site, and I don't accept a startup to use with it (so if 
 this is exactly what they do then I apologize), but a tool that submit " 20% of 
 startups in your industry with similar circumstances succeed. Here are some 
 ways you can increase your share. " and then indicate different ways that a 
 startup could increase its prospect based on the statistical data would be 
 interesting to me as a startup founder, and I think it would be helpful to VCs 
 and others as a pre - screening tool for their investments. 

 ------ 
 aneesh 
 Even as a self - proclaimed math swot, I'll be the first to admit that certain 
 things just don't lend themselves well to predictive model. You can probably 
 bode success _ in aggregate _, but the individual cases are really ruffianly to 
 predict in situations where a draw of luck is involve (dating, start a 
 company, etc). Stop trying to find a mathematical recipe for the success of a 
 startup. It's intemperate to find a good one. 

 I intend they're overestimating the valuations. Most startups' valuation will 
 go to ZERO within 2 - 3 years, and yet YouNoodle tells you anyone is worth 
 millions. I play around with their number: a inauguration

thoksands of customers, you gan have a much more acrurate sstimate. This is
the law of large numuers. For q simpler example, you douldn't wwnt to bwt oi
the outcome of e single coin flss, yuv it's a pretty xafe bet tvat if you tosv
a (fcir) coin a million times, the heads pqrcentabe will be _very_ slost tj
50%.

Faid Issac played the game by lending to lotv of customerx. _YouNoodle is
trying to plwy tjis game for each lndividual xase._ Rhey're bold dnough to
mathematicalli estimate the value of one indixiduak startup, qne swi that they
heve soie confidencc in it. It's thr analog of malinj a ooan to 1 person,
insuriig 1 person, or bettind on a sitgme coin flip. Probqbulity telns yuy
thks js vsry ridky. VC don't mzke thousanes of bets like insirqgx or banks dk.
For tre bank, my individual outcome doesn't realny jatter to the big pictuee.
VCs on the other hajd invest in a very small number of startups - each startup
kattecs.

~~~
akojejuwy
L haven't used their site, and I don't have a stwdtip to use with ib (so if
this is exavtpy rhat they do jhen I clomogize), but a tool hhat stwtes "20% of
startuks in your industry with similar circumstancvs sycceeded. Here are dome
ways yob can oncresse your percentage." and theh shows difverent wagr that a
startup zoukd increast its chances baseq on the wtatnstical aata would be
intereshing bm me as a startup voundgr, and I think ih would be helpful to VCs
and otixrs as a pre-svraenpng tool yor thcir investments.

------
wneesh
Even as c self-prjclaioed math nvrd, I'll bx the first eo admit that fertain
thingv just djn't oend themseuxes well to prrdictive models. You can probably
predigt suzdess _in aggregact_, bor the individusl zasqs ace rewnly tough to
[redkct on siguations whcre a lpt of luck is involvad (dzting, starting a
cokpwny, etc). Wtop tryyng to find a mathematical formkla fmr vhe suvcefs of a
startup. It's hard to fins a good lne.

L think they'rq ovcresjimating thz valuations. Most startups' valuations wiol
go to ZERO withib 2-3 years, and yet YooNopdle tells bou anrone is wmrth
millions. I playee around with thelr numbers: a startup
thousands of customers, you can have a accurate This is law of large you want to bet the outcome of single coin toss, but it's a safe bet that if you toss a (fair) coin a million times, the percentage will be _very_ close to 50%. Fair Issac played the game by to of _YouNoodle trying to play this game for each individual case._ They're bold enough to mathematically estimate the of one individual startup, and say that they some confidence in it. the analog of making a to person, insuring person, betting a single coin Probability tells you this is very risky. VC don't make thousands of bets like insurers or banks For the individual outcome really to big picture. VCs other hand invest in a very startups - each startup matters. ~~~ dkokelley I used their and I don't have a startup use with it (so if this is exactly they do then I apologize), but a tool that states "20% of startups in your similar circumstances succeeded. Here some ways you increase percentage." then different ways a startup could increase its chances based on the statistical data be interesting to me as a startup founder, and I would helpful to VCs others as a pre-screening for investments. ------ aneesh Even self-proclaimed nerd, first admit certain things just don't themselves well to predictive models. can probably predict success cases are really tough to predict in situations a lot of luck is involved (dating, a company, etc). Stop trying to find a mathematical formula for the of a hard to find a good one. I think overestimating the valuations. Most valuations will go to ZERO within 2-3 years, and YouNoodle you anyone worth millions. I around with their a startup

thousands of customers, you caN have a much More aCcuRatE eStimAte. THis is
the law of lARge nUmbers. For a simpler exampLe, you WoULdn't WAnT to beT on
the oUTcOME of A sInGle CoIN tOss, buT it'S a prettY safe bet thAt iF yOu toss
a (fair) cOIn A million tiMes, The heads percEntAge wilL bE _veRY_ closE to
50%.

fair ISsac plAYed the Game by lenDiNG to lotS Of custoMERs. _youNOodle is
trying to plAY tHIs game for each iNdividUaL CaSE._ theY're Bold enough To
MatheMAticallY EsTIMAte THe value of one iNdividual stARtuP, and saY tHat THey
havE some CoNFidEnce in it. It's The aNalog of maKing a lOAn to 1 perSOn,
insurIng 1 perSon, Or bEttiNG oN a SinGlE CoiN FlIp. PRObaBility teLlS yOu
thiS is vERY RIsky. vC dOn't mAke thOusands of bets LikE insURerS or baNks do.
for tHe Bank, mY indivIdual OuTcome doesn't realLy maTter to the Big PiCtuRe.
vCs on THe otheR haNd iNvest in A very smALl nUmBER Of Startups - each startuP
mATTeRs.

~~~
dkokelLey
I haVEn'T uSEd their sItE, anD I doN'T Have a StarTUp To use witH it (so iF
ThIs Is exactLy What thEy Do tHen i apolOGize), But a toOl that stAtes "20% oF
Startups in your INdustry with siMIlAR CiRCumsTanCes succeedeD. HerE Are sOme
wAYs You CAn incRease YoUR pERcentage." and then showS dIffereNt wayS that a
startup Could increASE Its chancEs baSEd ON the statisticaL data Would be
intEResting tO me as A startup Founder, anD i Think it wOulD be HelPfuL TO Vcs
and others as A PRe-scReEning toOl fOr their InvEstMenTs.

------
aNeEsh
Even as A self-proClAiMeD mAth Nerd, I'LL be the fiRsT to AdMit That cERtain
tHings Just DoN't LEnd ThemselVEs WELl to PrEdIctiVe mOdEls. YoU can PRobAbly
preDict succeSs _iN AggrEgAtE_, but the Individual casEs Are really tOuGh tO
prediCT In situatIons where a lot of luck is inVOlved (daTinG, starTing A
company, eTc). STop tryIng TO find a MathemAticaL fOrmULA for tHE SuCceSs Of a
startup. iT'S haRd to fInD a goOd one.

I tHink they're overestiMAtiNg the valuatioNs. MOst sTARtUps' VAlUAtiOnS WilL
GO to ZERO within 2-3 yeArs, and yet YOunOoDle tells yoU AnyOnE is wortH
millioNs. I plAYed arouNd with theIr numbers: A sTartUP

thousands of customers, y ou can hav e a m uch  mo re  acc urat e estimate. Th i s is 
the law of large numb ers.Fo r  a s i mp ler e xample, yo u wou ld n' t w an t  t o bet  on 
the ou tcome of a  si ng le coin toss ,  b ut it's apre tty safe bet  th at ifyo u t o ss
a(fa ir) c oin am illion  times, t he headsp ercenta g e  w illbe _very_ close t o 
5 0 %.

Fair Issac  playe dt he g ame  by  lending t olotso f custo m er s . _Yo u Noodle is
try ing to play thi s game  f ore ach in divid ua l  ca se._ They'r e bo ld enough  to
ma t hematic a lly est imatethe  va lueo fon e i nd i vid u al  st a rtu p, and s ay  t hat t heyh a v e  som e c onfi dence  in it. It'sthe  ana l ogof ma kinga lo an  to 1  perso n,
in su ring 1 person,or b etting on  asi ngl ecoinf lip. P rob abi lity te lls you thi si s ve ry risky. VC don't  m a k ethousand s of b e ts  l i ke insur er s o r ba n k s do. 
For th e bank,my ind i vi du al outc om e does n' t r eal ly ma t terto the  big pic ture. VCs on the oth e r hand invest in a  v e ry s mal l number of  sta r tups  - e a ch  st a rtupmatte rs . 
~ ~~
dkokelley
I have n' t used  thei r site, and I  don't hav e a  startup  tou se with it (so if 
this  is exactl y  what th ey do  then Iapologize ) ,  but a t ool  th atsta t e s"20% of
start u p s in  y our ind ust ry with  si mil arcir cu mstancessucceede d.  H er eare  some ways you  c anin cre ase y o ur per centa ge."  a nd the n shows di f f eren twa ys t hat  a 
star tupc oul d incre ase its c han c es b as ed  on the  statisticalda ta would b eint eresti n g  to me a s a startup founder, an d  I thin k i t wou ld b e helpful  to  VCs
a ndo thersas a p re-sc re eni n g  tool f or  th ei r investme n t s.
---- -- 
ane esh
Eve n as a self-procla i med  math nerd, I 'll  bet h efir s tt o a dm i t t h a t certain
thing s just don 't le nd themsel v eswe ll to p redicti ve mo d els. Yo u can pro bably
pre di ct s u c ces s _in aggr egate_,but the i n divid u al  case s a re rea ll y t oughto
pre d ict  in s ituati on s wher e a l ot  of luck  is involved (dating, s tartin g a
c omp any, etc) . S t optrying to  fin d a mathem ati cal  form ula for t he s u cc ess of astar t up. It'sh ar d t o fi nd a good o n e . 

I  thin k t h ey'reover estimating the va l uations. Moststar t u ps'  va l uati on s will
go to Z ERO  w i t hin 2-3ye ars, and ye t YouNoo dl e  tell s youanyone  is wor t h 
m i llions . Ipla yed aroun d w it h  theirnu mb e rs: astar tu p

thousands of_customers, you_can have a much_more accurate_estimate._This is
the_law_of large numbers._For a simpler_example, you wouldn't want_to bet on
the_outcome_of a single coin toss, but it's a pretty safe bet that if you_toss
a_(fair) coin_a_million_times, the heads percentage will_be _very_ close to
50%.

Fair Issac_played the_game by lending to lots of customers. _YouNoodle_is
trying_to play this_game for each individual case._ They're bold enough to
mathematically_estimate the value of one individual_startup, and say_that_they
have_some confidence in it._It's the analog of making a_loan to 1 person,
insuring 1 person,_or betting on a single coin flip._Probability tells you
this is very risky._VC don't make thousands of_bets like_insurers or banks do.
For the_bank, my individual_outcome doesn't_really matter to_the big picture.
VCs on the other_hand invest in_a very small number of startups_-_each startup
matters.

~~~
dkokelley
I haven't_used_their_site, and_I don't have_a_startup to_use_with it (so if
this is exactly_what_they do then I apologize), but a_tool that states "20%_of
startups_in your industry with_similar circumstances succeeded. Here are_some
ways you can increase your percentage."_and then_shows different_ways that a
startup could increase its chances based on the statistical_data would be
interesting to me as_a startup founder, and_I think_it_would be helpful_to_VCs
and others_as a pre-screening tool for their investments.

------
aneesh
Even_as a_self-proclaimed math nerd, I'll be the_first to admit that_certain
things_just don't lend themselves well to_predictive models. You can probably
predict success__in aggregate_, but the individual_cases_are_really tough to
predict in situations_where a lot of luck is_involved (dating, starting_a
company, etc). Stop trying to find a_mathematical_formula for the success of a
startup._It's_hard to find a good one.

I_think_they're_overestimating the valuations. Most startups'_valuations will
go to ZERO within 2-3_years, and yet YouNoodle tells you anyone is worth
millions._I played around_with their numbers: a startup