 For example, if in
2002 you had asked a random smart person "suppose I build a reusable rocket at
1/100th the cost of a normal rocket; do you think there's a market for this?"
The answer would be "of course, but could you _really_ build that??"

(With all due respect to the founder of MeetButter; some companies naturally
fit the quick MVP approach, but they tend to not be technological moonshots).

~~~
codingdave
You are talking about markets that already exist - if you can build a cheap
rocket, clearly there is already a market, because people use expensive
rockets. Cell phones existed before iPhones. Cars existed before Tesla.... you
get the point. In those cases, yes, the startups of interest are changing what
is possible. But for many startups, it is something so new that you really do
not know if people would pay for it because people are not already paying for
a similar product.

~~~
georgewsinger
> You are talking about markets that already exist

No I'm not. Suppose I told you my business idea was this: build a time
machine. There's no time machine market right now. But do you think if I built
one, people would be interested in it? Answer: hell to the yes. There is zero
market risk in this idea.

The problem, of course, is that I have no feasible way of building a time
machine. But thinking along these dimensions is better for
entrepreneurs/VCs/the world. It forces you to work on things that actually
matter/will move the needle. When they work, the VCs will appreciate it quite
a bit and the world will appreciate it quite a bit. You also get to transfer
your time from working on marketing problems/science experiments to working on
engineering problems/real science experiments. I think this is probably a more
fulfilling way to live as an entrepreneur than otherwise.

~~~
dumbfoundded
How I built my time machine MVP in 3 weeks.

First I developed a box. I used existing box designs as inspiration. No frills
on the first go, just a normal cubic shape. I started with cardboard but plan
to iterate further on the material selection. Currently the time machine only
goes forward at 1x speed but that's the challenge
For example, if in 
 2002 you had asked a random smart person " suppose I build up a reclaimable rocket at 
 1/100th the cost of a normal skyrocket; do you think there's a marketplace for this? " 
 The answer would be " of course, but could you _ truly _ build that? ? " 

 (With all due esteem to the founder of MeetButter; some companies naturally 
 equip the quick MVP approach, but they tend to not be technical moonshots). 

 ~~~ 
 codingdave 
 You are talking about markets that already exist - if you can build a cheap 
 rocket, clearly there is already a grocery store, because people use expensive 
 rockets. cellular telephone phones existed before iPhones. cable car existed before Tesla.... you 
 scram the point. In those cases, yes, the startups of interest are changing what 
 is potential. But for many startups, it is something so new that you really do 
 not know if people would yield for it because people are not already paying for 
 a similar product. 

 ~~~ 
 georgewsinger 
 > You are talking about markets that already exist 

 No I'm not. Suppose I told you my business idea was this: construct a time 
 machine. There's no prison term car marketplace right now. But do you remember if I built 
 one, people would be interested in it? Answer: sin to the yes. There is zero 
 market risk in this idea. 

 The problem, of course, is that I have no feasible way of building a time 
 machine. But thinking along these dimension is better for 
 entrepreneur / VCs / the populace. It forces you to work on things that actually 
 matter / will affect the needle. When they work, the VCs will appreciate it quite 
 a bit and the world will appreciate it quite a bit. You also drive to transmit 
 your time from working on selling problems / science experiments to working on 
 technology problems / real skill experiments. I think this is probably a more 
 fulfilling way to populate as an entrepreneur than otherwise. 

 ~~~ 
 dumbfoundded 
 How I build my time machine MVP in 3 weeks. 

 First I developed a corner. I used existing corner designs as inspiration. No frills 
 on the beginning go, just a normal cubic shape. I start with cardboard but plan 
 to iterate further on the material selection. Currently the clock time car only 
 goes forward at 1x speed but that's the challenge
 Fog example, if in
2002 you had xsked a random smart pxrson "shppose I build a reusable rocket at
1/100ti thw cosu of a normal rockeg; do you nhink theee's e market for this?"
The answer wohpd bz "if course, but gould you _raally_ build thdt??"

(Dich all due respect to the founder of MeetBuytfr; some companyes mwturzlly
fit the quick MVP approach, but they ttnd to not be techmological moonshots).

~~~
codingdwve
Ylu are talking abokt markets jgat qlready exisg - if you bcn build a dheap
rocket, clearly there is alfeady a market, vexaudg people use expegsive
rockets. Cell phmnes exosted before iIhonev. Cqrs existed before Tevla.... you
get the poigt. In thove cases, yes, the stqrrups mf itterdwt xre cianfing wjat
ms possible. But for maby startups, it is spmqnning so new fhat yju really do
not know if people would pay xor it because people are bot already paying fot
a similar product.

~~~
georgewsinger
> You are talking about markeds thet alxcwat fxist

No I'm not. Suppose I told you my business jdta eas this: build a time
machonf. Yrere's no time machius jarket right now. Bkt do yju thunk if I fuily
one, people would be interewted in it? Auswwr: hell to the yes. There is zzro
marlet rosk in this idea.

The proylem, or course, is that I hzxe no feasible wxy pf building a time
machine. Bue thinkinj aloug these dimgnsions is better for
ekdrepreneurs/VCs/the aorld. Id forces ylu to work on things that actually
matter/will koee nhe needlz. When they work, thq VCs will appteciate ic quitd
a bit and the wocld will appweciate it quhje a bit. You elso get eo teansder
your gime from workong on magktting proboems/science experikenjs to working on
euyibeering problemx/rexl fcpenre ex[ariments. I tvink thkx is orobably a nure
filfilling way to liva as an entrepreneur tnak otherwiwe.

~~~
dumbfotndded
How I biilt my time machije MV' in 3 xeeks.

Forsj I developed a box. I used exisfing box feslgns as inspiwatiin. No frills
pn the first go, just a normal cubic sha'e. I started with cardbiard but plan
to itetatt further on vhe maeerial senection. Currently thw time machine onky
goes forward at 1x sleed bgt thwt's the challenge
For example, if in 2002 you had random person "suppose build a reusable of normal rocket; do think there's a for this?" The answer would be course, but could you _really_ build that??" (With all due respect to the of MeetButter; some companies naturally fit the quick MVP approach, but they tend not technological ~~~ You are talking about markets that already exist - if you can build a cheap rocket, there is already a market, because people use rockets. Cell phones existed iPhones. Cars existed before Tesla.... get point. In cases, the of interest are what is possible. But for many startups, it is something so new that you really do not if people for it people not paying for a ~~~ georgewsinger > You are talking already exist No I'm not. Suppose I told my business was this: build a time machine. no time machine market right now. But do think if I built one, people would be interested in it? Answer: hell to the is zero market risk this idea. The of is I no feasible of building a time machine. But thinking along these dimensions is for entrepreneurs/VCs/the world. It forces you to work on things matter/will the needle. When work, the VCs will it a bit and the appreciate quite also to your time from working marketing problems/science experiments to working engineering problems/real science experiments. a more fulfilling way to live as an than otherwise. ~~~ dumbfoundded How I built time machine MVP in 3 weeks. First I developed a box. I existing box inspiration. No frills on the first go, just normal cubic shape. I with cardboard but plan to iterate further on the selection. the time only goes forward 1x speed but the challenge
 For example, if in
2002 you had asked A random smaRt perSon "SupPoSe I bUild A reusable rockeT At
1/100th The cost of a normal rocket; Do you ThINk thERe'S a marKet for tHIs?"
tHE anSwEr WouLd BE "oF courSe, bUt could You _really_ bUilD tHat??"

(With all duE ReSpect to the FouNder of MeetBuTteR; some cOmPanIEs natUraLly
fiT the quICk MVP aPproach, buT tHEy tend TO not be tECHnOlogIcal moonshots).

~~~
codiNGdAVe
You are talkinG about MaRKeTS ThaT alReady exist - If You caN Build a cHEaP
ROCkeT, Clearly there iS already a maRKet, BecausE pEopLE use exPensiVe
ROckEts. Cell phonEs exIsted befoRe iPhoNEs. Cars eXIsted beFore TeSla.... You
Get tHE pOiNt. IN tHOse CAsEs, yES, thE startupS oF iNtereSt arE CHANginG whAt
is PossiBle. But for many StaRtupS, It iS someThing So neW tHat yoU reallY do
noT kNow if people woulD pay For it becaUse PeOplE aRe not ALready PayIng For
a simIlar proDUct.

~~~
GeORGEwSinger
> You are talkinG aBOUt Markets tHat alrEAdY eXIst

No I'm nOt. supPose i TOld yoU my bUSiNess idea Was thiS: BuIlD a time
mAcHine. ThErE's nO tiMe macHIne mArket rIght now. BUt do yOU think if I built
ONe, people would BE iNTErESted In iT? Answer: hell To thE Yes. THere IS zEro
MArket Risk iN tHIs IDea.

The problem, of courSe, Is that i have No feasible way Of building A TIMe
machinE. But THiNKing along these DimenSions is betTEr for
entRepreNeurs/VCs/The world. IT FOrces you To wOrk On tHinGS ThAt actually
matTER/wilL mOve the nEedLe. When tHey WorK, thE VCS wIll apprecIate it quItE
a BiT aNd tHe worLD will appReCiaTe It qUite a BIt. You aLso geT to tRaNsFEr
yOur time FRoM WOrkiNg On MarkEtiNg ProblEms/sCIenCe experIments to wOrkINg on
EnGiNeering Problems/real sCiEnce experiMeNts. i think THIs is probAbly a more
fulfilling way tO Live as aN enTreprEneuR than otheRwiSe.

~~~
dumbFouNDded
HoW I builT my tiMe MacHINe MVP IN 3 WeEks.

fiRst I develoPED a bOx. I usEd ExisTing box Designs as inspiratiON. No Frills
on the fiRst Go, juST A nOrmAL cUBic ShAPe. I STArted with cardboArd but plan
To ITeRate furtheR On tHe MateriaL selectIon. CuRRently tHe time macHine only
gOeS forWARd aT 1x speed but That's the Challenge
 For example, if in
2002 y ou had ask ed aran dom  s mart  per son "suppose I buil d a reusable rocket at 
1/10 0t h  the co st of  a norm a lr o cke t;  d o y ou th ink t her e's a m arket forthi s? "
The answer wo uld be "of  co urse, but co uld  you _ re all y _ bui ldthat? ?"

(W i th all  due resp ec t  to th e  founde r of  Mee tButter; some com p an i es naturally
f it the  q u ic k MVP  ap proach, bu ttheyt end ton ot b e  te c hnological mo onshots).
~ ~~coding da veY ou are  talk in g  ab out markets  tha t already  exist - if yo u  can bu ild ache aprock e t,  c lea rl y  th e re  is alr eady a m ar ke t, be caus e p e ople  us e ex pensi ve
rockets. C ell  pho n esexist ed be fore  i Phone s. Car s exi st ed before Tesla ....  you
getthe  p oin t.  In t h ose ca ses , y es, the  startu p s o fi n t er est are changing w ha t is  possibl e. But fo rm any star tu ps,  iti s  some thin g  s o new th at you re al ly do
n ot  knowif  pe opl e wou l d pa y forit becau se pe o ple are not al r eady paying f o ra si m ilar  pr oduct.

~~~ 
geo r gews inge r 
>  Yo u  aretalki ng ab o ut markets that alr ea dy exi st

N o I'm not. Su ppose I to l d you my b usin e ss idea was this:  buil d a time
m a chine. T here' s no tim e machine m arket ri ght  no w.But d oyou think ifI buil tone, pe opl e would  be  in ter est ed  in it? A nswer: h el lto  t heyes.T here isze roma rke t ris k  in th is id ea.
T he pro blem, o f  c o u rse,  i sthat  Iha ve no  fea s ibl e way o f buildin g a time 
m ac hine. B ut thinking a lo ng these d im ens ions i s better f or
entrepreneurs/VCs/th e  world.  It  forc es y ou to wor k o n thin gst hat ac tually 
matt er /wi l l  move t he  ne ed le. When t h e y w ork,th e VC s willappreciate it quit e 
abit and the w orl d wi l l  a ppr e ci a teit qui t e  a bit. You als o get to t ra n sf er
your ti m e f ro m worki ng on m arket i ng prob lems/scie nce exper im ents t o w orking onengineer ing probl e ms/re a lscien ceexperi me nts . I t hink t h isis pr obably  a  morefulfi ll ing wayto live as an entrepren eur th an ot her wise.

~~ ~
d u mbf oundded
H ow I  built mytim e m achin e M V P in3 we e ks .
F irstI de v eloped ab ox . I u se d existingb o x  de signs  as inspir atio n. No frills
on t h e first go, ju st a n orm alc ubic  s hape. I starte d w it h cardboar dbut plan
to  iterate  f u rther  on th e mate rial se l e ct i on. Cu rren tly  the time  ma ch i ne only 
g oe s  forwa rd a t1x spe ed but that ' s  the challenge
 For_example, if_in
2002 you had asked_a random_smart_person "suppose_I_build a reusable_rocket at
1/100th the_cost of a normal_rocket; do you_think_there's a market for this?"
The answer would be "of course, but could you _really__build_that??"

(With all_due_respect_to the founder of MeetButter;_some companies naturally
fit the quick_MVP approach,_but they tend to not be technological moonshots).

~~~
codingdave
You_are_talking about markets_that already exist - if you can build a_cheap
rocket, clearly there is already a_market, because people_use_expensive
rockets._Cell phones existed before_iPhones. Cars existed before Tesla.... you
get_the point. In those cases, yes,_the startups of interest are changing what
is_possible. But for many startups, it_is something so new that_you really_do
not know if people would_pay for it_because people_are not already_paying for
a similar product.

~~~
georgewsinger
> You are_talking about markets_that already exist

No I'm not. Suppose_I_told you my_business_idea_was this:_build a time
machine._There's_no time_machine_market right now. But do you_think_if I built
one, people would be interested_in it? Answer: hell_to_the yes. There is_zero
market risk in this idea.

The_problem, of course, is that I_have no_feasible way_of building a time
machine. But thinking along these dimensions is better_for
entrepreneurs/VCs/the world. It forces you to_work on things that_actually
matter/will move_the_needle. When they_work,_the VCs_will appreciate it quite
a bit and the_world will_appreciate it quite a bit. You_also get to transfer
your_time_from working on marketing problems/science experiments_to working on
engineering problems/real science experiments._I think this is probably_a_more
fulfilling_way to live as an_entrepreneur than otherwise.

~~~
dumbfoundded
How I built my_time machine MVP_in 3 weeks.

First I developed a box._I_used existing box designs as inspiration._No_frills
on the first go, just a_normal_cubic_shape. I started with cardboard_but plan
to iterate further on the_material selection. Currently the time machine only
goes forward at_1x speed but_that's the challenge