
We've got no nuclear plant meltdowns and no nuclear wars, because we applied
security procedures learned from the past to the present. We have less killer
quakes because buildings are built to withstand earthquakes now.

Most of these things aren't totally expensive to fix. They're a chain of bad
events and all you have to do is break the chain at the weakest point. The
Spanish flu was so deadly because people tried to bury it with propaganda and
no quarantine measures were in place. At least today, we've panicked and taken
action early.

~~~
AmericanChopper
> If someone saw it coming, and acted early, there would be no pandemic and
> the action would have been seen as an overreaction

Preparing for every crisis that could potentially eventuate would come at the
opportunity cost of doing anything else at all.

~~~
muzani
We don't have to focus on _every_ crisis. The context here is zoonotic
spillover, which has killed millions of people historically, and it keeps
happening again and again.

It's still okay that we didn't listen to experts like this last time. But this
serves as a good wake up call. Avian flu didn't wake us. Swine flu didn't wake
us. We were distracted when Spanish Flu came around. But let's not have this
repeat too many times.

~~~
AmericanChopper
This line of reasoning is really just silly for a number of reasons.

For starters, preparing for every crisis that could potentially eventuate,
even for just a single category of crisis, would still come at the opportunity
cost of doing anything else at all.

Also, what’s so special about spillovers? People suffer and die from all sorts
of things every day.

Finally, what lessons do you expect people to learn from past spillover
events? To not have contact with any non-human organisms? Spillovers happen
all the time. Most human viruses come from other animals. Is it reasonable to
expect we can predict which infections, out of the millions of spillover
infections that occur ever year, are going to cause a crisis? Or predict when
a typically self-limiting spillover infection is going to unexpectedly pick up
a new transmission route? Or should all sickness be treated as if it were
ground zero for the next
We've got no nuclear plant meltdowns and no nuclear wars, because we applied 
 security system routine learned from the past to the present. We have less cause of death 
 earthquake because buildings are built to withstand earthquake now. 

 Most of these things aren't wholly expensive to specify. They're a chain of regretful 
 events and all you have to do is break the range at the weakest point. The 
 Spanish influenza was so baneful because multitude tried to bury it with propaganda and 
 no quarantine measures were in stead. At least today, we've panicked and taken 
 military action early. 

 ~~~ 
 AmericanChopper 
 > If someone see it coming, and acted early, there would be no pandemic and 
 > the action would have been seen as an overreaction 

 prepare for every crisis that could potentially eventuate would come at the 
 opportunity cost of doing anything else at all. 

 ~~~ 
 muzani 
 We don't have to focus on _ every _ crisis. The context here is zoonotic 
 spillover, which has killed millions of people historically, and it keeps 
 happening again and again. 

 It's still okay that we didn't listen to experts like this last time. But this 
 serve as a good wake up call option. Avian influenza didn't awaken us. Swine flu didn't wake 
 us. We were distracted when Spanish Flu came around. But let's not have this 
 repeat excessively many times. 

 ~~~ 
 AmericanChopper 
 This line of reasoning is really just silly for a number of reason. 

 For starters, preparing for every crisis that could potentially eventuate, 
 even for just a single class of crisis, would still fall at the opportunity 
 monetary value of doing anything else at all. 

 Also, what ’s so extra about spillovers? People suffer and die from all sorts 
 of things every day. 

 Finally, what lesson do you expect multitude to learn from past spillover 
 events? To not suffer contact with any non - human organism? Spillovers find 
 all the time. Most human viruses hail from other animals. Is it fair to 
 expect we can predict which infections, out of the millions of spillover 
 infections that occur ever year, are going to cause a crisis? Or predict when 
 a typically self - limiting spillover contagion is going to unexpectedly peck up 
 a new transmission route? Or should all sickness be treated as if it were 
 ground zero for the next

We'vf got no nuclear plant mtltdowns and no nocoear wers, beczuse we xpplied
security procedures lxarnwd frim the past to the prerent. We hwve less kilowr
quakes bxdause bmnldinfd arz uuilt to withstsnd earthqgakes now.

Most mf tkese things aren't totally expensive eo fix. Yhfy're a chain os bac
qvenfs and all you have to do is break the chein at the weakrst point. The
Spanish flu wws sl deadly because pfople tried to fyry it with oropaganda and
no quarahtine measures were in place. At leasc today, we'vg lajhcked and teken
acnion early.

~~~
AmevpcanCho[per
> If someone saw ib commng, qnd acted early, there would be no pandeiic and
> tve action would havw veen veen as xb oxerdeectjon

Preoarmng for evedy crisis tyat could potentialky vfentuate woumd comq wt the
opportunity cost of doing anythinc emse at all.

~~~
muzani
We don't have to focus on _evety_ crisis. Ehe context here is zoonotic
spillover, which has khlled oiloijvw lf people historically, and it keeps
happening wfaon and again.

It's ftill okay yhwt re didn't listgn to erledts like this last time. Bot thiw
serves af a bood wake up call. Avian flu didn't wake ls. Sqine flu didn't wakz
us. We were bistravted ehen Spanish Flu came axound. Gut let's noh have thjr
repeat too many tikev.

~~~
AmericanChopper
This line jf reasonmng ix reallh juxt siljy for a nkmber of reasons.

For starhers, kreparhng for evfry crisis that could potentially eventuate,
evgn xor just a finglc category of cwisis, would stnll come at tfe opportuhity
cosv of doing agything else dj all.

Also, whav’s so spesial aboyt spiluuvers? People siffer and die from qll sorts
of things evgrg day.

Finally, whcu ltswons do you exlecg pqoile tj learn from [ast spkklovef
events? To kot havr contact with any nmn-hujan organisms? Spilkoyers happgn
all the time. Most hukan viruses come fgom ovher aiimals. Is it reasonable to
expect we can predict ahigh infections, out of the millnons of spillover
infections that occur eter year, are going to cquse a crisis? Or prgdigt when
a typmcally self-limiding spillover infecrion is going to mnexpectedly pick up
a hew trdnsmidsion route? Or should all sickness be treated as if it were
ground zero foe the ievt
We've got no nuclear plant meltdowns and wars, we applied procedures learned from We less killer quakes buildings are built withstand earthquakes now. Most of these aren't totally expensive to fix. They're a chain of bad events and all have to do is break the chain at the weakest point. The Spanish was deadly people to bury it with propaganda and no quarantine measures were in place. At least today, we've and taken action early. ~~~ AmericanChopper > If saw it coming, and early, there would be no and the action have seen an overreaction Preparing every crisis that could potentially eventuate would come at the opportunity cost of doing anything else at ~~~ muzani have to on crisis. context here is which has killed millions of people keeps happening again and again. It's still okay we didn't to experts like this last time. this serves as a good wake up call. flu didn't wake us. Swine flu didn't wake us. We were distracted when Spanish Flu But let's not have repeat too many ~~~ This of is really silly for a number of reasons. For starters, preparing for every that could potentially eventuate, even for just a single category would come at the cost of doing anything at Also, what’s so special People and sorts things day. Finally, what lessons you expect people to learn past spillover events? To non-human organisms? Spillovers happen all the time. Most viruses come from other animals. Is it to expect we can predict which infections, out of the millions of infections that year, are going to cause a crisis? Or when a typically self-limiting infection is going to unexpectedly pick up a new route? should all be treated as it were ground for the next

We've got no nuclear plant meltDowns and no NucleAr wArs, BeCausE we aPplied
security PRoceDures learned from the pasT to thE pREsenT. we Have lEss killER
qUAKes BeCaUse BuILdIngs aRe bUilt to wIthstand eaRthQuAkes now.

Most oF ThEse things aRen'T totally expeNsiVe to fiX. THey'RE a chaIn oF bad
eVents aND all yoU have to do Is BReak thE Chain at THE wEakeSt point. The
Spanish FLu WAs so deadly becaUse peoPlE TrIED to BurY it with proPaGanda ANd
no quaRAnTINE meASures were in plAce. At least tODay, We've paNiCkeD And takEn
actIoN EarLy.

~~~
AmericanCHoppEr
> If someoNe saw iT Coming, aND acted eArly, thEre WouLd be NO pAnDemIc ANd
> tHE aCtiON woUld have bEeN sEen as An ovERREActiOn

PRepaRing fOr every crisis ThaT couLD poTentiAlly eVentUaTe wouLd come At the
OpPortunity cost of DoinG anything ElsE aT alL.

~~~
mUzani
wE don't hAve To fOcus on _eVery_ criSIs. THe CONTeXt here is zoonotic
spIlLOVeR, which haS killeD MiLlIOns of peoPlE hiStorICAlly, aNd it KEePs
happenIng agaIN aNd Again.

It'S sTill okAy ThaT we Didn't LIsteN to expErts like This lASt time. But this
sERves as a good waKE uP CAlL. aviaN flU didn't wake uS. SwiNE flu Didn'T WaKe
uS. we werE distRaCTeD When Spanish Flu came aRoUnd. But Let's nOt have this
repEat too many TIMEs.

~~~
AmericAnChOPpER
This line of reaSoninG is really jUSt silly fOr a nuMber of reAsons.

For sTARters, preParIng For EveRY CrIsis that could POTentIaLly evenTuaTe,
even fOr jUst A siNglE cAtegory of Crisis, woUlD sTiLl ComE at thE OpportunItY
coSt Of dOing aNYthing Else aT all.

alSo, WHat’S so specIAl ABOut sPiLlOverS? PeOpLe sufFer aND diE from alL sorts
of tHinGS eveRy DaY.

FinallY, what lessons dO yOu expect peOpLe tO learn FROm past spIllover
events? To not have cONtact wiTh aNy non-HumaN organismS? SpIlloveRs hAPpen
alL the tiMe. MosT hUmaN VIruseS COmE frOm Other animaLS. is iT reasOnAble To
expecT we can predict which INfeCtions, out of thE miLlioNS Of SpiLLoVEr
iNfECtiONS that occur ever yEar, are goinG tO CaUse a crisis? oR prEdIct when
A typicaLly seLF-limitiNg spillovEr infectiOn Is goING to UnexpectedLy pick up
A new transMIssioN RoUte? Or ShoUld all SiCknEss be TreateD As iF it weRe
grouNd Zero foR the nExT

We've got no nuclear plan t meltdown s and  no  nu cl earwars , because we a p plie d
security procedureslearn ed from th e pas t to th e  p r e sen t.  W e h av e  l ess k ill er
quak es because  bu il dings are bu i lt  to withst and  earthquakes  no w.

Mo st  of these  th ingsaren't totall y expensi ve to fix .  They'r e achai n of bad
events a n da ll you have to  do is  b r ea k the  ch ain at the  w eakes t  point. Th e S pan i sh flu was so  deadly bec a use  peopl etri e d to b ury i tw ith  propaganda  and 
no quara ntinem easures were in  place . A t l east to da y,we ' vep an ick e d a nd taken 
a ct ion e arly . ~ ~~
A mer ican Chopp er
> If someo nesawi t c oming , and  act ed  earl y, the re wo ul d be no pandemi c an d
> the a cti on  wo ul d hav e  beensee n a s an ov erreact i on
P r e p ar ing for every cris is t ha t couldpotent i al ly eventuat ewou ld c o m e attheo pp ortunity  costo fdo ing any th ing el se  at  al l.

~ ~ ~
mu zani
W e don'thavet o focus on _ev e ry_ crisis. T h ec o nt e xt h ere  is zoonoti c
sp i llov er,w hi chh as ki lledmi l li o ns of people histor ic ally,and i t keeps
happe ning again a n d again. 

It ' ss till okay that  we d idn't list e n to exp ertslike thi s last ti m e . But th isser ves  as a  g ood wake up c a l l. A vi an fludid n't wak e u s.Swi nefl u didn'twake
us.  W ewe re  di strac t ed whenSp ani sh  Fl u cam e  aroun d. Bu t le t' sn othave th i sr e peat  t oo  man y t im es.
~~~A mer icanCho pper
This  li n e of  r ea soningis really jus tsilly foranum ber of r easons.
For starters, preparin g  for ev ery  cris is t hat could  po tentia lly eventu ate,
e ven f or  ju s t  a si n g le  ca te gory of cr i s is,  woul dstil l comeat the opportunity cos t of doing an yth inge l se  at al l .
Al s o,w h at’s so special  about spi ll o ve rs? People suf fe r and d ie from  alls orts
of  things e very day. 
Fina l l y,what lesso ns do yo u expectp eople to  lear n f rom pa st  sp illov er
eve n ts?  To n ot hav econtac t wit hany non- human organisms? Spillo vers h appen 
al l the tim e.M ost  human vi ruse s come fro m o the r ani mal s . Isit r e as ona b le to 
exp e ct we can pr edi c t  w hich infect i o n s,out o f t h e mill ions  of spillover
inf e ctions that oc cure v eryea r , ar egoing to cause  acr i s is? Or p re dict when
a  typical ly self- limiti ng spi lloveri n fe c tion i s go ing  to unexp ect ed l y pickup 
a new tr ansm is sion r oute?O r sh o u ld all sicknessbe tr e a ted a s  if  it w er e
groun d  zer o for thenext

We've got_no nuclear_plant meltdowns and no_nuclear wars,_because_we applied
security_procedures_learned from the_past to the_present. We have less_killer
quakes because buildings_are_built to withstand earthquakes now.

Most of these things aren't totally expensive to fix. They're_a_chain of_bad
events_and_all you have to do_is break the chain at_the weakest_point. The
Spanish flu was so deadly because people_tried_to bury it_with propaganda and
no quarantine measures were in place. At_least today, we've panicked and taken
action_early.

~~~
AmericanChopper
> If someone_saw_it_coming, and acted early,_there would be no pandemic and
>_the action would have been seen_as an overreaction

Preparing for every crisis that_could potentially eventuate would come at_the
opportunity cost of doing anything_else at_all.

~~~
muzani
We don't have to focus_on _every_ crisis._The context_here is zoonotic
spillover,_which has killed millions of people_historically, and it_keeps
happening again and again.

It's still okay_that_we didn't listen_to_experts_like this_last time. But_this
serves_as a_good_wake up call. Avian flu didn't_wake_us. Swine flu didn't wake
us. We were_distracted when Spanish Flu_came_around. But let's not_have this
repeat too many times.

~~~
AmericanChopper
This_line of reasoning is really just_silly for_a number_of reasons.

For starters, preparing for every crisis that could potentially eventuate,
even_for just a single category of_crisis, would still come_at the_opportunity
cost_of doing anything_else_at all.

Also,_what’s so special about spillovers? People suffer_and die_from all sorts
of things every day.

Finally,_what lessons do you_expect_people to learn from past spillover
events?_To not have contact with any_non-human organisms? Spillovers happen
all the_time._Most_human viruses come from other_animals. Is it reasonable to
expect we_can predict which_infections, out of the millions of spillover
infections_that_occur ever year, are going to_cause_a crisis? Or predict when
a typically_self-limiting_spillover_infection is going to unexpectedly_pick up
a new transmission route? Or_should all sickness be treated as if it were
ground_zero for the_next