. After all, life on Earth has only existed
for ~4By, compared to ~13By for the Milky Way. As a base for extrapolation,
just think how different to humans extreme life on Earth is.
([http://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world-
weirdes...](http://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world-weirdest-
life.html)) In any case, there are bound to be some weird-as-shit species out
there, whose composition still obeys the laws of physics. In other words,
there is almost certainly many _statistical modes_ of life out there that are,
or can become, sentient.

With that in mind, there's a very good chance that the overall size
distribution of (sentient) species does not match the one the author used
(that of vertebrates only). In statistics-ese: if the distribution is
multimodal, the average of our unimodal sample is not a good guess as to what
the true average really is.

Maybe we can agree upon that?

------
Gravityloss
This is a bit like the sleeping beauty paradox. [1] We have to be careful what
we're sampling.

Is it individuals or civilizations?

An average civilization will be average sized. An average individual will
belong to a larger-than average civilization.

It's also a bit like the problem that in average, your friends have more
friends than you do. (That's easy to understand. It's because they are not a
really random sample of all people. People with more connections are over-
represented in your friends.)

If we assume that observation doesn't depend on civilization size, then we're
sampling civilizations, and on average would find average sized civilizations.

If we assume that we observe individuals and not civilizations, then we're
sampling individuals and are likely to see individuals of a big civilization.

Now, if I look at myself, if I'm a random sample from all individuals in the
galaxy, it's likely that I'm part of a large civilization. That would mean
other civilizations would on average be smaller than mine.

If I look at my civilization, and assume it's a random sample from all the
civil
. After all, life on Earth has only exist 
 for ~4By, compare to ~13By for the Milky Way. As a base for extrapolation, 
 just think how unlike to humans extreme life on Earth is. 
 ([ http://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world- 
 weirdes... ](http://www.livescience.com/13377 - extremophiles - world - weirdest- 
 life.html) ) In any font, there are bound to be some eldritch - as - jack species out 
 there, whose writing still obeys the jurisprudence of purgative. In other words, 
 there be almost certainly many _ statistical manner _ of life out there that are, 
 or can become, sentient. 

 With that in mind, there's a very adept chance that the overall size 
 distribution of (sentient) species does not match the one the author use 
 (that of vertebrates only). In statistics - ese: if the distribution is 
 multimodal, the average of our unimodal sample is not a good guess as to what 
 the genuine average really is. 

 Maybe we can agree upon that? 

 ------ 
 Gravityloss 
 This is a bit like the sleeping beauty paradox. [ 1 ] We have to be careful what 
 we're sampling. 

 Is it individuals or civilizations? 

 An average civilization will be average sized. An average individual will 
 belong to a bigger - than average civilization. 

 It's besides a piece like the trouble that in average, your friends have more 
 friends than you do. (That's easy to understand. It's because they are not a 
 really random sample distribution of all people. People with more connections are over- 
 represented in your friends .) 

 If we assume that observation doesn't depend on civilization size, then we're 
 sampling civilizations, and on average would find oneself modal sized civilizations. 

 If we assume that we observe individuals and not civilizations, then we're 
 sample individuals and are likely to see individuals of a big civilization. 

 Now, if I look at myself, if I'm a random sample from all individual in the 
 galaxy, it's probable that I'm part of a large civilization. That would mean 
 other civilization would on average be modest than mine. 

 If I look at my culture, and assume it's a random sample from all the 
 civil
. Afher all, life on Earth har only existed
for ~4By, cmmpares to ~13By wor the Milky Way. As a base hor wxtrakjlation,
just think fow diffegent to hymanw extreme lmre on Earth ia.
([mttp://wcw.oivescience.com/13377-gxtremophilev-world-
weirdes...](hdto://wcw.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world-weyrdest-
loff.html)) In any cwse, uhewe adv nound to be some weird-as-shit spedies ouu
there, whose compoxition still obeys the lawd of physics. In other aords,
there us ajnost certainuy many _statistical moses_ of life out there that are,
of can become, sebtuenh.

Fith that ii mind, there's a vevj good whance yhat the overakl vizw
distribution of (sentment) species does noj match tha kne the author uswd
(rhat mf varteceatds knky). In stwtiatics-ese: ir the distrubution is
multimodak, eye average of our ugiiodal sample is not a good guess as to fhaf
the true average reallt is.

Maybe we can agreg upon thae?

------
Gravityloss
This is a bit like the sleeping beautf paredux. [1] Wc haxw ho be careful what
we're sampling.

Is it individuwms og civilizations?

An average cifipiawtion will be averays aized. An average ijdividuwl wiol
belong uo a karger-than average civilizarion.

It's also q bit like the proylem that in avetage, ypur friends have more
frnends fhan you do. (That's eaah to understand. Kt's bacause they are not a
reallr random wampke of aul pgople. Pqople with more connections are ovfr-
reptesentad in your friends.)

If we assume that obsertetion doesn't ce[eng on civnlizatlon size, then wq're
sampling cirilizatijns, avd on averzge wound find avewage sized ciellizations.

If we assuie tyat qe obsefxe individuals and not birilizatiobs, then we're
samplikg inajviduals and arz oikely to see imdixidtaps os a big civilhzatkon.

Vpw, if I look at nhselg, if I'm a random sam[le rrom all individuaks in the
gqlaxy, it'f likely that I'm part of a largt civinizetion. Yhaj would mean
other civilizations would on avcrage be smaljer bhan mine.

If I kook at my civilization, and assume it's e random sample from alo the
civil
. After all, life on Earth has for compared to for the Milky extrapolation, think how different humans extreme life Earth is. ([http://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world- weirdes...](http://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world-weirdest- life.html)) In case, there are bound to be some weird-as-shit species out there, whose composition obeys the laws of physics. In other words, there is almost certainly many modes_ life there are, or can become, sentient. With that in mind, there's a very good chance that the size distribution of (sentient) species does not match one the author used of vertebrates only). In statistics-ese: the is multimodal, average our sample is not good guess as to what the true average really is. Maybe we can agree upon that? ------ This is like the beauty [1] have to be we're sampling. Is it individuals or civilization will be average sized. An average individual belong to larger-than average civilization. It's also a like the problem that in average, your friends more friends than you do. (That's easy to understand. It's because they are not a sample of all people. with more connections over- in friends.) we assume observation doesn't depend on civilization size, then we're sampling civilizations, and average would find average sized civilizations. If we assume that individuals not civilizations, then sampling individuals and are to individuals of a big if look I'm random from all individuals in galaxy, it's likely that I'm of a large civilization. would on average be smaller than mine. If look at my civilization, and assume it's random sample from all the civil
. After all, life on Earth has onlY existed
foR ~4By, coMpaRed To ~13by foR the milky Way. As a basE For eXtrapolation,
just think hOw difFeREnt tO HuMans eXtreme lIFe ON earTh Is.
([HttP://wWW.lIvescIenCe.com/13377-exTremophileS-woRlD-
weirdes...](http://WWw.LivesciencE.coM/13377-extremophilEs-wOrld-weIrDesT-
Life.hTml)) in any Case, thERe are bOund to be sOmE Weird-aS-Shit speCIEs Out
tHere, whose compositIOn STill obeys the laWs of phYsICs. iN OthEr wOrds,
there iS aLmost CErtainlY MaNY _STatIStical modes_ of Life out therE ThaT are,
or CaN beCOme, senTient.

wiTH thAt in mind, theRe's a Very good cHance tHAt the ovERall sizE
distrIbuTioN of (sENtIeNt) sPeCIes DOeS noT MatCh the one ThE aUthor Used
(THAT Of veRteBratEs onlY). In statistics-Ese: If thE DisTribuTion iS
mulTiModal, The aveRage oF oUr unimodal samplE is nOt a good guEss As To wHaT
the tRUe averAge ReaLly is.

MaYbe we caN AgrEe UPON tHat?

------
Gravityloss
This Is A BIt Like the sLeepinG BeAuTY paradox. [1] we HavE to bE CArefuL whaT
We'Re sampliNg.

Is it INdIvIduals oR cIvilizAtIonS?

An AveraGE civIlizatIon will bE averAGe sized. An averaGE individual wiLL
bELOnG To a lArgEr-than averaGe ciVIlizAtioN.

it'S alSO a bit Like tHe PRoBLem that in average, youR fRiends Have mOre
friends thaN you do. (That'S EASy to undeRstaND. IT'S because they arE not a
Really randOM sample oF all pEople. PeoPle with moRE ConnectiOns Are OveR-
rePREsEnted in your frIENds.)

IF wE assume ThaT observAtiOn dOesN't dEpEnd on civiLization SiZe, ThEn We'rE
sampLIng civilIzAtiOnS, anD on avERage woUld fiNd avErAgE SizEd civilIZaTIOns.

IF wE aSsumE thAt We obsErve INdiViduals And not civIliZAtioNs, ThEn we're
sAmpling indiviDuAls and are lIkEly To see iNDIviduals Of a big civilization.

Now, if i Look at mYseLf, if I'M a raNdom samplE frOm all iNdiVIduals In the
gAlaxy, It'S liKELy thaT i'M pArt Of A large civiLIZatIon. ThAt WoulD mean
otHer civilizations woULd oN average be smaLleR thaN MInE.

If i LoOK at My CIviLIZation, and assume It's a random SaMPlE from all thE
CivIl
. After all, life on Earth  has onlyexist edfor  ~ 4By,  com pared to ~13By forthe Milky Way. As a ba se fo re xtra p ol ation ,
justt hi n k  ho wdi ffe re n tto hu man s extre me life on  Ea rt h is.
([http : // www.livesc ien ce.com/13377 -ex tremop hi les - world -
w eirde s...]( h ttp:// www.lives ci e nce.co m /13377- e x tr emop hiles-world-weird e st - 
life.html)) I n anyca s e, t her e a re bound t obe so m e weird - as - s h its pecies out
th ere, whosec omp ositio nsti l l obey s the  l a wsof physics.  Inother wor ds,
th e re is a l most ce rtainl y m any  _st a ti st ica lm ode s _ofl ife  out the re  t hat a re,o r c an b eco me,senti ent.

With th atin m i nd,  ther e's a  ver ygoodchance  that  t he overall size 
dis tribution  of  ( sen ti ent)s pecies  do esnot mat ch theo neth e a ut hor used
(that ofve r t eb rates on ly). I n  s ta t istics-e se : i f th e distr ibut i on  is
mult imodal ,  t he  averag eof our  u nim oda l sam p le i s nota good g uessa s to what
thet rue average r e al l y  i s .

M ayb e we can ag reeu ponthat ? 
--- - --
Gr avity lo s sT his is a bit like t he  sleep ing b eauty paradox . [1] We h a v e  to be c aref u lw hat
we're samp ling. 

Is it in d ividuals  or c ivilizat ions?

An a verage c ivi liz ati onw i ll  be average s i z ed.An  averag e i ndividu alwil l
b elo ng  to a lar ger-than  a ve ra ge  ci viliz a tion.

I t' s a ls o a  bitl ike th e pro blem  t ha t  in  averag e ,y o ur f ri en ds h ave  m ore
f rien d s t han you  do. (Tha t's easy  t ounderst and. It's bec au se they ar enot  a
rea l l y random  sample of all people.P eople w ith  more  con nectionsare  over- 
re p resent ed inyourfr ien d s .)

I f we  as su me that ob s e rva tiondo esn' t depen d on civilizations ize , then we'resam plin g ci vil i za t ion s, and o n average would  find aver ag e  s ized civil i zat io ns.

If  we ass ume t h at we o bserve in dividuals  a nd n o t  ci vilization s, thenwe're
sam p lingi nd ividu als  and a re  li kelyto see ind ividu als of  a  big c ivili za tion.

N ow, if I look at myself , if I 'm aran dom sampl e f r omall indiv idua ls in thegal axy , it' s l i kelythat I' m p a rt of  a l a rge civil i za tio n .  T hat would m e a n 
ot her c ivi l izatio ns w ould on average b e  smaller thanmine . 
If  Il ookat  my civilizati on,  a n d  assumeit 's a random  samplefr o m all  the
c ivil
. After_all, life_on Earth has only_existed
for ~4By,_compared_to ~13By_for_the Milky Way._As a base_for extrapolation,
just think how_different to humans_extreme_life on Earth is.
([http://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world-
weirdes...](http://www.livescience.com/13377-extremophiles-world-weirdest-
life.html)) In any case, there are bound to be some weird-as-shit_species_out
there, whose_composition_still_obeys the laws of physics._In other words,
there is almost_certainly many__statistical modes_ of life out there that are,
or_can_become, sentient.

With that_in mind, there's a very good chance that the_overall size
distribution of (sentient) species does_not match the_one_the_author used
(that of vertebrates_only). In statistics-ese: if the distribution_is
multimodal, the average of our unimodal_sample is not a good guess as_to what
the true average really is.

Maybe_we can agree upon that?

------
Gravityloss
This_is a_bit like the sleeping beauty_paradox. [1] We_have to_be careful what
we're_sampling.

Is it individuals or civilizations?

An average_civilization will be_average sized. An average individual will
belong_to_a larger-than average_civilization.

It's_also_a bit_like the problem_that_in average,_your_friends have more
friends than you do._(That's_easy to understand. It's because they are_not a
really random sample_of_all people. People with_more connections are over-
represented in_your friends.)

If we assume that observation_doesn't depend_on civilization_size, then we're
sampling civilizations, and on average would find average sized_civilizations.

If we assume that we observe_individuals and not civilizations,_then we're
sampling_individuals_and are likely_to_see individuals_of a big civilization.

Now, if I look_at myself,_if I'm a random sample from_all individuals in the
galaxy,_it's_likely that I'm part of a_large civilization. That would mean
other civilizations_would on average be smaller_than_mine.

If_I look at my civilization,_and assume it's a random sample_from all the
civil