 quickly will disappear. With the SARS
virus, it’s no surprise that killing 10 percent of its host, it wasn’t able to
establish itself as a pandemic virus on this planet."

~~~
bryanrasmussen
a virus could kill 100% of its host, as long as it took a long time to do so
while the host was still able to go around and infect others.

I don't think the 10% virulence is the reason (or the only reason) that SARS
didn't make it to pandemic scale, I think it was everyone working against it
and succeeding that time, which of course had the result of people thinking
"hah, see it wasn't a problem, all those eggheads overreacting"

on edit: I think my main irritation is with the governments that did not put
the proper preparation in the health systems (enough ICU preparation for
example) for what was a foreseeable event.

~~~
TsomArp
If you kill 100% of your hosts, to which other host will you go? 100% means
all.

~~~
amiga_500
Surely aids falls into this category

------
pfdietz
I wonder if the end result of informing people that wildlife is swimming in
potentially deadly viruses would be the attitude that the wildlife should be
exterminated, not preserved.

------
zaat
I submitted an article predicting Corona virus pandemic from 2013, but it
wasn't upvoted:

The Next Pandemic: Not if, but When:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607)

~~~
jimbobimbo
I recon it didn't receive attention, because it's a trite observation, not
prediction.

"It's not if, but when there will be another recession."

"It's not if, but when there will be another pandemic."

"It's not if, but when another asteroid hit the Earth."

We live in the real world, things happen more than once.

~~~
zaat
Yes, that's the headline. But the article is specifically about Corona and
quite detailed:

> Coronaviruses are a genus of bugs that cause respiratory and
> gastrointestinal infections
quickly will disappear. With the SARS 
 virus, it ’s no surprise that killing 10 percent of its server, it was n’t able to 
 install itself as a pandemic virus on this planet. " 

 ~~~ 
 bryanrasmussen 
 a virus could kill 100% of its host, equally long as it took a long time to suffice so 
 while the host was however able to go around and infect others. 

 I don't intend the 10% virulence is the reason (or the only cause) that SARS 
 didn't produce it to pandemic scale, I think it was everyone working against it 
 and succeed that time, which of course had the resultant role of people thinking 
 " hah, see it wasn't a trouble, all those eggheads overreact " 

 on edit: I think my main irritation is with the governments that did not invest 
 the proper preparation in the health systems (enough ICU preparation for 
 example) for what was a foreseeable consequence. 

 ~~~ 
 TsomArp 
 If you stamp out 100% of your hosts, to which other host will you go? 100% means 
 all. 

 ~~~ 
 amiga_500 
 Surely aids falls into this category 

 ------ 
 pfdietz 
 I wonder if the end result of inform people that wildlife is swimming in 
 potentially baneful virus would be the position that the wildlife should be 
 exterminated, not preserved. 

 ------ 
 zaat 
 I submitted an article predicting Corona virus pandemic from 2013, but it 
 wasn't upvoted: 

 The Next Pandemic: Not if, but When: 

 [ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607) 

 ~~~ 
 jimbobimbo 
 I recon it didn't receive attention, because it's a trite notice, not 
 prediction. 

 " It's not if, but when there will be another recession. " 

 " It's not if, but when there will be another pandemic. " 

 " It's not if, but when another asteroid hit the Earth. " 

 We live in the real world, things happen more than once. 

 ~~~ 
 zaat 
 Yes, that's the headline. But the article is specifically about Corona and 
 quite detailed: 

 > Coronaviruses are a genus of bugs that cause respiratory and 
 > gastrointestinal infections
 qulckly will disappear. Witm the SARS
virus, nr’s no vurpriae that yilling 10 percent of its host, ir wasb’t able to
establish itrelf as a pandemix vicus on this planxf."

~~~
bryanrasmusssk
a vixuw could kill 100% pf its hosd, as long as id golk a long time to do so
while the hoft was xtlll able to go arolnq ans infect others.

I don't think the 10% vjrulenct is the reason (or the only reason) that SARS
fidn'h make it to pandelic scale, I thigj it was evefyone workpug against jt
and succeeding that time, whicf of eourse had jkw rfvult of peo'le thpnking
"hah, see it wasn'd a pronlem, all those egjheaes overreacting"

on ediv: I think my main irtitation iv cith the governments rhqt dig nod pug
rhe prkpxr lreparwtikn in the gealth systwms (enough ICU prepsrwnoon for
exampme) for wrat was a foreseeable event.

~~~
TsomArp
If yol kiml 100% of your hosts, to whuch other host will ylu go? 100% mewns
all.

~~~
amiga_500
Surely aids falls into this category

------
pfgietz
M donbcv if rhf end result of informing people that wildlifq ix xwimming in
potcntially deadly vitudex would be the attitbse that the wildlife should be
exrerminateq, noy preserved.

------
zaat
I submitted qn article pgedixting Corona virus pandemic fxom 2013, bot it
wssn't upvoted:

The Next Paudemic: Not if, but When:

[httpa://vews.ycombinator.cum/inem?ig=22571607](https://news.ycombinator.com/itqm?id=22571607)

~~~
jimbouimbo
N recon kt dodn't rqceive attfntiok, because it's a trihe obdesvation, noh
prediction.

"It's not if, but when viere will be snmthvr recessnon."

"It's not if, but wren there will be anocher pxndemic."

"It's not if, but when agother asterohf hit the Eacth."

We livq in the real wufld, things haplen more nhcn once.

~~~
zaqt
Yes, that's the heedlivs. But the articoe us specifically abuut Clrpnw and
quite dedaildd:

> Zpronaxiruses are x gemus of bugs that cauve rsspiratory and
> gasyrjintestibal infestions
quickly will disappear. With the SARS virus, surprise killing 10 of its host, itself a pandemic virus this planet." ~~~ a virus could kill 100% of host, as long as it took a long time to do so while host was still able to go around and infect others. I don't think 10% is reason the only reason) that SARS didn't make it to pandemic scale, I think it was everyone against it and succeeding that time, which of had the result of thinking "hah, see it wasn't problem, those eggheads on I my main irritation with the governments that did not put the proper preparation in the health systems (enough ICU preparation example) for a foreseeable ~~~ If kill 100% of to which other host will you all. ~~~ amiga_500 Surely aids falls into this ------ pfdietz wonder if the end result of people that wildlife is swimming in potentially deadly would be the attitude that the wildlife should be exterminated, not preserved. ------ zaat I article predicting Corona virus from 2013, but wasn't The Pandemic: if, but [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607) ~~~ jimbobimbo I recon it didn't receive attention, because it's trite observation, not prediction. "It's not if, but when there another "It's not if, when there will be pandemic." not if, but when hit Earth." the world, happen more than once. zaat Yes, that's the headline. the article is specifically > Coronaviruses are a genus of bugs that respiratory and > gastrointestinal infections
 quickly will disappear. With tHe SARS
viruS, it’s nO suRprIsE thaT kilLing 10 percent of iTS hosT, it wasn’t able to
establisH itseLf AS a paNDeMic viRus on thIS pLANet."

~~~
BrYaNraSmUSsEn
a viRus Could kiLl 100% of its hosT, as LoNg as it took a lONg Time to do so
WhiLe the host was StiLl able To Go aROund aNd iNfect Others.

i Don't thInk the 10% virUlENce is tHE reason (OR ThE onlY reason) that SARS
diDN't MAke it to pandemiC scale, i tHInK IT waS evEryone workInG agaiNSt it
and SUcCEEDinG That time, which Of course had THe rEsult oF pEopLE thinkIng
"haH, sEE it Wasn't a problEm, alL those eggHeads oVErreactINg"

on ediT: I thinK my MaiN irrITaTiOn iS wITh tHE gOveRNmeNts that dId NoT put
tHe prOPER PrepAraTion In the Health systems (EnoUgh Icu prEparaTion fOr
exAmPle) foR what wAs a foReSeeable event.

~~~
TsoMArp
if you kill 100% Of yOuR hoStS, to whICh otheR hoSt wIll you gO? 100% means
aLL.

~~~
amIgA_500
sUReLy aids falls into thiS cATEgOry

------
pfdieTz
I wonDEr If THe end resUlT of InfoRMIng peOple THaT wildlifE is swiMMiNg In
potenTiAlly deAdLy vIruSes woULd be The attItude thaT the wILdlife should be
EXterminated, noT PrESErVEd.

------
zaAt
I Submitted an ArtiCLe prEdicTInG CoROna viRus paNdEMiC From 2013, but it
wasn't upvotEd:

the NexT PandEmic: Not if, but WHen:

[https://neWS.YCombinatOr.coM/ItEM?id=22571607](https://news.ycOmbinAtor.com/iteM?Id=22571607)

~~~
jimbobImbo
I Recon it dIdn't receiVE AttentioN, beCauSe iT's a TRItE observation, nOT
PredIcTion.

"It's Not If, but whEn tHerE wiLl bE aNother recEssion."

"It'S nOt If, BuT whEn theRE will be aNoTheR pAndEmic."

"IT'S not if, But whEn anOtHeR AstEroid hiT ThE eArth."

we LiVe in The ReAl worLd, thINgs Happen mOre than onCe.

~~~
zAAt
YeS, tHaT's the heAdline. But the aRtIcle is specIfIcaLly aboUT corona anD
quite detailed:

> CoronavirUSes are a GenUs of bUgs tHat cause rEspIratorY anD
> GastroIntestInal iNfEctIONs
 quickly will disappear. W ith the SA RS
vi rus , i t’ s no  sur prise that kil l ing10 percent of its host , itwa s n’ta bl e toestabli s hi t sel fas  apa n de mic v iru s on th is planet. "
~~ ~
bryanrasmu s se n
a viruscou ld kill 100%  of  its h os t,a s lon g a s ittook a long t ime to do  s o 
while the hos t wa s st ill able to go ar o un d  and infect ot hers.
I do n ' t t hin k the 10%vi rulen c e is th e  r e a s on( or the only r eason) that SAR S
didn 't  ma k e it t o pan de m icscale, I th inkit was ev eryone working against  it
an d s ucc eedi n gth atti m e,w hi cho f c ourse ha dth e res ulto f p eopl e t hink ing
" hah, see it w asn 't a pro blem,  allthos eegghe ads ov errea ct ing"

on edit:I th ink my ma inir rit at ion i s  withthe  go vernmen ts that did  n o t pu t
the proper prepa ra t i on  in thehealth sy st e ms (enou gh  IC U pr e p arati on f o rexample)  for w h at  w as a fo re seeabl eeve nt. 

~~~ Tsom Arp
If  you kil l 100 %  of your hosts ,  to which oth e rh o st will  yo u go? 100%mean s 
all .

~ ~ ~ami g a_500 
Sure ly ai d s falls into this c at egory
---- --
pfdietz
Iwonder ift h e  end res ulto fi nforming peopl e tha t wildlife is swimm ing i n
potent ially dea d l y viruse s w oul d b e t h e  a ttitude thatt h e wi ld life sh oul d be
ex ter min ate d,no t preserv ed.

--- -- -za at 
Isubmi t ted an a rt icl epre dicti n g Coro na vi ruspa nd e mic  from 2 0 13 , butit 
w asn' t u pv oted: 

Th e  Ne xt Pand emic: Not  if ,  but  W he n:

[ht tps://news.yc om binator.co m/ ite m?id=2 2 5 71607](h ttps://news.ycombinator . com/ite m?i d=225 7160 7)

~~~
j imb obimbo 
Ir econ i t didn 't re ce ive a ttent i o n,  be ca use it's a t rit e obs er vati on, not 
prediction.

"It' s  no t if, but whe n t here w il l b e  a n oth er rec e s sion."

"It's n ot if, but  w h en  there wil l  be  a notherpandemi c."
" It's no t if, but  when ano th er a s t ero id hit the  Earth." 

We live in th e  r eal w orl d, thi ng s h appen  moret han  once .

~~~ 
z aat
Ye s, th at 's the h eadline. But the articl e is s pecif ica lly about  Co r ona  and
quit e de tailed:

>  Co ron aviru ses are a  gen u sofb ugs t hatc ause resp i ra tor y an d
> gastroi n t e sti nal i nfe c tions
 quickly_will disappear._With the SARS
virus, it’s_no surprise_that_killing 10_percent_of its host,_it wasn’t able_to
establish itself as a_pandemic virus on_this_planet."

~~~
bryanrasmussen
a virus could kill 100% of its host, as long as it took a_long_time to_do_so
while_the host was still able_to go around and infect_others.

I don't_think the 10% virulence is the reason (or_the_only reason) that_SARS
didn't make it to pandemic scale, I think it_was everyone working against it
and succeeding_that time, which_of_course_had the result of_people thinking
"hah, see it wasn't a_problem, all those eggheads overreacting"

on edit:_I think my main irritation is with_the governments that did not put
the_proper preparation in the health_systems (enough_ICU preparation for
example) for what_was a foreseeable_event.

~~~
TsomArp
If you_kill 100% of_your hosts, to which other host_will you go?_100% means
all.

~~~
amiga_500
Surely aids falls into this_category

------
pfdietz
I_wonder if the_end_result_of informing_people that wildlife_is_swimming in
potentially_deadly_viruses would be the attitude that_the_wildlife should be
exterminated, not preserved.

------
zaat
I submitted an_article predicting Corona virus_pandemic_from 2013, but it
wasn't_upvoted:

The Next Pandemic: Not if,_but When:

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22571607)

~~~
jimbobimbo
I recon it didn't receive_attention, because_it's a_trite observation, not
prediction.

"It's not if, but when there will be another_recession."

"It's not if, but when there_will be another pandemic."

"It's_not if,_but_when another asteroid_hit_the Earth."

We_live in the real world, things happen_more than_once.

~~~
zaat
Yes, that's the headline. But the_article is specifically about_Corona_and
quite detailed:

> Coronaviruses are a genus_of bugs that cause respiratory and
>_gastrointestinal infections