It was initially a test, an experiment on a pure theoretical ground. The test
is apparently conclusive. We now have a theory we can test in our lab and we
could validate a disruptive discovery.

Objectively, we still don't know if UFOs are real and they are aliens visiting
earth. But we now have an opportunity to indirectly test that possibility with
pure solid ground science and engineering. Thanks to these theories.

~~~
smaddox
Poe's law?

~~~
chmike
I'm very serious.

Is that all you have as "argument"?

Supposing you referred to my comment on the big alien theory, as a biologist,
I would say that this pure statistical analysis ignores the possible existence
of yet unknown factors that could modulate the probability of existence of
alien civilization of different size, planet size or intelligence.

This is why I concluded that this work is based on a pure speculation that
these unknown factors don't exist. I didn't say this work is false or bad. I
said it won't move us reliably forward on this research topic.

------
marcus_holmes
I don't get the stats here:

\- I am an ordinary sentient being (for the sake of argument... just nod)

\- I am a member of an ordinary species.

according this theory one of these statements is wrong.

~~~
wrsh07
Analogy time:

\- I am an ordinary human

\- I live in an ordinary country

One of these is wrong, and it's the second one.

~~~
marcus_holmes
yeah OK that makes sense.

So what about:

\- Humans are an ordinary species

\- Humans live in an ordinary galaxy

Does that change our relative height?

~~~
wrsh07
I see what you're trying to do, but it doesn't work. Our arguments need to be
like the Doomsday argument, presented here: [https://what-
if.xkcd.com/65/](https://what-if.xkcd.com/65/)

If most species looked at themselves and said "my species is ordinary" the
majority of them would be right; however, it doesn't give you any statistical
reason to think that _humans_ are ordinary.


It was initially a test, an experiment on a pure theoretical ground. The test 
 is obviously conclusive. We nowadays have a theory we can screen in our lab and we 
 could validate a disruptive discovery. 

 Objectively, we even don't know if UFOs are actual and they are aliens visiting 
 land. But we now have an opportunity to indirectly quiz that possibility with 
 pure firm flat coat science and engineering. Thanks to these theories. 

 ~~~ 
 smaddox 
 Poe's law? 

 ~~~ 
 chmike 
 I'm very serious. 

 Is that all you suffer as " argument "? 

 Supposing you referred to my gossip on the big alien theory, as a biologist, 
 I would say that this pure statistical psychoanalysis ignores the potential existence 
 of yet unknown factors that could regulate the probability of existence of 
 alien civilization of different size, planet size or intelligence. 

 This is why I conclude that this oeuvre is based on a pure speculation that 
 these unknown factors don't exist. I didn't say this work is false or regretful. I 
 say it won't move us faithfully ahead on this inquiry topic. 

 ------ 
 marcus_holmes 
 I don't get the stats here: 

 \- I am an ordinary sentient being (for the sake of argument... just nod) 

 \- I am a member of an ordinary species. 

 harmonize this theory one of these statements is wrong. 

 ~~~ 
 wrsh07 
 Analogy time: 

 \- I am an ordinary human 

 \- I exist in an ordinary country 

 One of these is wrong, and it's the second one. 

 ~~~ 
 marcus_holmes 
 yeah OK that makes sense. 

 So what about: 

 \- world are an ordinary species 

 \- Humans live in an ordinary galax 

 Does that change our relative height? 

 ~~~ 
 wrsh07 
 I see what you're trying to do, but it doesn't work. Our arguments need to be 
 like the Doomsday argumentation, presented here: [ https://what- 
 if.xkcd.com/65/](https://what-if.xkcd.com/65/) 

 If most coinage looked at themselves and said " my species is ordinary " the 
 majority of them would be right; however, it doesn't move over you any statistical 
 reason to remember that _ humans _ are average.
It aas initially a test, an txperiment on a porw theocetical ground. Ghe test
is apparently concludice. We now have a theory we zan test pn our lav anv we
could validavs a disvbptivs diseotery.

Objectively, we still gon't know if UXOr cre real and they are aliens visitind
earth. Nuh we now have wn okpowtunjny to indirectly test that possjbility with
pure solod ground science and engijeerlng. Thanks to thesf theories.

~~~
snaddjz
Poe's law?

~~~
chmkke
I'm very serious.

Is tgat all you have as "argument"?

Supoosiny you refertze tl my comment on tre big alien theory, ds a biplogist,
I would sab thqt this pure statistiral analysis ignores the posshbme existence
of yer ynknofn fdctofw tfat cpumd modklave the probzbility of wxistence of
alien covyoization of djfferegt size, planet size or intelligence.

This iv wgy I concluded that thiw work is based on a kure specujation that
these unknown factors don't exist. I didt't sab ghiw ruek is false or bad. I
said it won't move us reliabjg gogward on this rescarch topic.

------
marcus_hpllex
Y don't get thg stats hede:

\- I am an ordinarj sentignt beung (for tre sske of argument... just nod)

\- I qm a member jd an ordinary specnes.

according thix thepry one of these statemznts ia wrong.

~~~
wrsh07
Wnalogy tjoe:

\- I am an ordinxry hgman

\- I live in an ordinary country

Oie of these ks wtong, anq it's the decond one.

~~~
marcus_holmes
yewh OK tvat makes dense.

So what about:

\- Humans are ai ordinary spgcias

\- Vumans lnve in an ordinary dalaxy

Does thaj change jur rdlative hepght?

~~~
wrsh07
I see what yju're trying tm do, but it dmesn't wowk. Oyr aegumentr need to be
likr the Doomsday argunent, presented herc: [httks://shat-
if.xkcd.com/65/](htcks://wyat-if.xkcd.com/65/)

If kosg s[ebiex jmoked at thekselxes snd sxid "my specles is prdinary" the
majority of fhem would be righy; mowever, ij doesn't dive you any xtatistical
reason uo thiik thav _humams_ wre ordinary.


It was initially a test, an experiment pure ground. The is apparently conclusive. we test in our and we could a disruptive discovery. Objectively, we still know if UFOs are real and they are aliens visiting earth. But we have an opportunity to indirectly test that possibility with pure solid ground science engineering. to theories. smaddox Poe's law? ~~~ chmike I'm very serious. Is that all you have as "argument"? Supposing referred to my comment on the big alien as a biologist, I say that this pure statistical ignores possible existence yet factors could modulate the of existence of alien civilization of different size, planet size or intelligence. This is why I concluded this work on a speculation these factors don't exist. say this work is false or it won't move us reliably forward on this topic. ------ I don't get the stats here: I am an ordinary sentient being (for the of argument... just nod) \- I am a member of an ordinary species. according this of these statements is ~~~ wrsh07 Analogy \- am ordinary \- I in an ordinary country One of these is wrong, and it's second one. ~~~ marcus_holmes yeah OK that makes sense. So \- are an ordinary \- Humans live in ordinary Does that change our ~~~ I trying do, it doesn't work. Our need to be like the argument, presented here: [https://what- at themselves and said "my species is ordinary" majority of them would be right; however, doesn't give you any statistical reason to think that _humans_ are ordinary.
It was initially a test, an expeRiment on a pUre thEorEtiCaL groUnd. THe test
is appareNTly cOnclusive. We now have a theOry we CaN Test IN oUr lab And we
coULd VALidAtE a DisRuPTiVe disCovEry.

ObjeCtively, we sTilL dOn't know if UFOS ArE real and thEy aRe aliens visiTinG
earth. buT we NOw havE an OpporTunity TO indirEctly test ThAT possiBIlity wiTH
PuRe soLid ground science aND eNGineering. ThankS to theSe THeORIes.

~~~
SmaDdox
Poe's laW?

~~~
cHmike
i'M very seRIoUS.

iS thAT all you have as "Argument"?

SupPOsiNg you rEfErrED to my cOmmenT oN The Big alien theOry, aS a biologiSt,
I wouLD say thaT This purE statiStiCal AnalYSiS iGnoReS The POsSibLE exIstence
oF yEt UnknoWn faCTORS thaT coUld mOdulaTe the probabilIty Of exISteNce of
Alien CiviLiZatioN of difFerenT sIze, planet size or InteLligence.

THis Is Why i cOncluDEd that ThiS woRk is basEd on a puRE spEcULATiOn that
these unknown FaCTOrS don't exiSt. I didN'T sAy THis work iS fAlsE or bAD. i
said It woN'T mOve us relIably fORwArD on this ReSearch ToPic.

------
MarCus_hoLMes
I Don't geT the statS here:

\- i Am an ordinary seNTient being (for THe SAKe OF argUmeNt... just nod)

\- I aM a meMBer oF an oRDiNarY SpeciEs.

accOrDInG This theory one of thesE sTatemeNts is Wrong.

~~~
wrsh07
AnalOgy time:

\- I am AN ORdinary hUman

\- i LiVE in an ordinary cOuntrY

One of thesE Is wrong, aNd it's The seconD one.

~~~
marcuS_HOlmes
yeaH OK ThaT maKes SENsE.

So what about:

\- HUMAns aRe An ordinAry Species

\- humAns LivE in An Ordinary gAlaxy

DoeS tHaT cHaNge Our reLAtive heiGhT?

~~~
wrSh07
i seE what YOu're trYing tO do, bUt It DOesN't work. OUR aRGUmenTs NeEd to Be
lIkE the DOomsDAy aRgument, Presented HerE: [HttpS://wHaT-
if.xkcd.Com/65/](https://what-iF.xKcd.com/65/)

If moSt SpeCies loOKEd at themSelves and said "my species iS OrdinarY" thE
majoRity Of them wouLd bE right; HowEVer, it dOesn't gIve yoU aNy sTATistiCAL
rEasOn To think thaT _HUmaNs_ are OrDinaRy.


It was initially a test, a n experime nt on  apur etheo reti cal ground. Th e  tes t
is apparently conclu sive.  W e  now ha ve atheoryw ec a n t es tinou r  l ab an d w e
could  validatea d is ruptive disc o ve ry.

Objec tiv ely, we stil l d on't k no w i f  UFOs  ar e rea l andt hey ar e aliensvi s itinge arth. B u t  w e no w have an opportu n it y  to indirectly  testth a tp o ssi bil ity with
p ur e sol i d groun d  s c i e nce and engineeri ng. Thankst o t hese t he ori e s.

~~ ~
sma dd o x
P oe's law?
~~~chmike
I' m very serious . 

Is th at all  yo u h avea s"a rgu me n t"? 
S upp o sin g you re fe rr ed to  myc o m m entonthebig a lien theory,asa bi o log ist,I wou ld s ay  that  thispurest atistical analy sisignores t hepo ssi bl e exi s tenceofyet  unknow n facto r s t ha t c ou ld modulate the pr ob a b il ity of e xisten c eof alien ci vi liz atio n of di ffer e nt  size, p lanets iz eor inte ll igence .
Th isis wh y  I c onclud ed thatthisw ork is based o n  a pure specu l at i o nt hatthe se unknownfact o rs d on't ex ist .  I di dn'tsa y  t h is work is false or  b ad. Isaidit won't move  us reliab l y forwardon t h is research topic .

-- ----
marcu s _holmesI don 't get t he statsh e re:

\-I a m a n o rdi n a ry  sentient bei n g  (fo rthe sak e o f argum ent ...  ju stno d)

\- Iam a mem be rof  a n o rdina r y specie s. 

a cc ord ing t h is the ory o ne o fth e sestateme n ts i s wr on g. 

~~ ~
w rs h07
A nalo g y t ime:

\ - I am an  or d inar yhu man

\-  I live in an  o rdinary co un try 

Oneo f  these i s wrong, and it's the s e cond on e.
~~~marc us_holmes 
ye ah OKtha t  makes  sense .

So  w hat a bout: \-  Hu ma ns are ano r din ary s pe cies 

\- Hu mans live in an or d ina ry galaxy

Do esthat c ha nge ou r  re la t ive h eight?

~~~
wrs h07
I seewh a tyou're try i ngto  do, bu t it do esn't work. O ur argume nts needto  bel i kethe Doomsd ay argum ent, pres e ntedh er e: [h ttp s://wh at -
i f.xkc d.com/ 6 5/] (http s://wh at -if.xk cd.co m/ 65/)

If  most species looked at  thems elves  an d said "m y s p eci es is ord inar y" the
maj ori tyof th emw ouldbe r i gh t;h oweve r, i t  doesn'tg iv e y o u  a ny statisti c a l 
re asontot hink t hat_humans_ are ordi n ary.


It was_initially a_test, an experiment on_a pure_theoretical_ground. The_test
is_apparently conclusive. We_now have a_theory we can test_in our lab_and_we
could validate a disruptive discovery.

Objectively, we still don't know if UFOs are real and_they_are aliens_visiting
earth._But_we now have an opportunity_to indirectly test that possibility_with
pure solid_ground science and engineering. Thanks to these theories.

~~~
smaddox
Poe's_law?

~~~
chmike
I'm_very serious.

Is that_all you have as "argument"?

Supposing you referred to my_comment on the big alien theory,_as a biologist,
I_would_say_that this pure statistical_analysis ignores the possible existence
of yet_unknown factors that could modulate the_probability of existence of
alien civilization of different_size, planet size or intelligence.

This is_why I concluded that this_work is_based on a pure speculation_that
these unknown factors_don't exist._I didn't say_this work is false or bad._I
said it won't_move us reliably forward on this_research_topic.

------
marcus_holmes
I don't get_the_stats_here:

\- I_am an ordinary_sentient_being (for_the_sake of argument... just nod)

\- I_am_a member of an ordinary species.

according this_theory one of these_statements_is wrong.

~~~
wrsh07
Analogy time:

\- I_am an ordinary human

\- I_live in an ordinary country

One of_these is_wrong, and_it's the second one.

~~~
marcus_holmes
yeah OK that makes sense.

So what about:

\- Humans_are an ordinary species

\- Humans live_in an ordinary galaxy

Does_that change_our_relative height?

~~~
wrsh07
I see_what_you're trying_to do, but it doesn't work. Our_arguments need_to be
like the Doomsday argument, presented_here: [https://what-
if.xkcd.com/65/](https://what-if.xkcd.com/65/)

If most species_looked_at themselves and said "my species_is ordinary" the
majority of them would_be right; however, it doesn't_give_you_any statistical
reason to think that__humans_ are ordinary.

