 Mid West

2

1

1

Dublin North

1

1

1

1

Dublin North Central

2

1

Dublin North East

1

1

1

Dublin North West

2

1

Dublin South

1

3

1

Dublin South Central

1

2

1

1

Dublin South East

2

2

Dublin South West

1

2

1

Dublin West

1

2

1

Dun Laoghaire

2

1

1

Galway East

3

1

Galway West

1

1

1

2

Kerry North-West Lim’k

2

1

Kerry South

1

1

1

Kildare North

1

2

1

Kildare South

1

1

1

Laois-Offaly

2

3

Limerick City

1

2

1

Limerick

1

2

Longford-Westmeath

2

2

Louth

2

2

1

Mayo

1

4

Meath East

1

1

1

Meath West

1

2

Roscommon-South Leit’m

2

1

Sligo-North Leitrim

2

1

Tipperary North

1

1

1

Tipperary South

1

2

Waterford

1

2

1

Wexford

1

2

2

Wicklow

1

2

2

STATE

20

76

38

0

12

20

As noted a number of times, this is a very rough model based on a “uniform swing” assumption – assuming that the national swing from the 2007 general election support levels to current opinion poll support levels would be replicated exactly
Mid West 

 2 

 1 

 1 

 Dublin North 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 Dublin North Central 

 2 

 1 

 Dublin North East 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 Dublin North West 

 2 

 1 

 Dublin South 

 1 

 3 

 1 

 Dublin South Central 

 1 

 2 

 1 

 1 

 Dublin South East 

 2 

 2 

 Dublin South West 

 1 

 2 

 1 

 Dublin West 

 1 

 2 

 1 

 Dun Laoghaire 

 2 

 1 

 1 

 Galway East 

 3 

 1 

 Galway West 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 2 

 Kerry North - West Lim’k 

 2 

 1 

 Kerry South 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 Kildare North 

 1 

 2 

 1 

 Kildare South 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 Laois - Offaly 

 2 

 3 

 Limerick City 

 1 

 2 

 1 

 Limerick 

 1 

 2 

 Longford - Westmeath 

 2 

 2 

 Louth 

 2 

 2 

 1 

 Mayo 

 1 

 4 

 Meath East 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 Meath West 

 1 

 2 

 Roscommon - South Leit’m 

 2 

 1 

 Sligo - North Leitrim 

 2 

 1 

 Tipperary North 

 1 

 1 

 1 

 Tipperary South 

 1 

 2 

 Waterford 

 1 

 2 

 1 

 Wexford 

 1 

 2 

 2 

 Wicklow 

 1 

 2 

 2 

 STATE 

 20 

 76 

 38 

 0 

 12 

 20 

 As noted a number of times, this is a very boisterous exemplar based on a “ uniform swing ” presumption – assuming that the national lilt from the 2007 general election support degree to current opinion poll accompaniment levels would be replicated precisely
 Mif West

2

1

1

Dublin North

1

1

1

1

Dublin North Central

2

1

Doboin Nocth Easf

1

1

1

Dublin Vorth West

2

1

Dublin South

1

3

1

Dublin Siuth Xentral

1

2

1

1

Dublin South Eart

2

2

Dublin Douth Wewt

1

2

1

Duulin West

1

2

1

Dun Laojgaire

2

1

1

Galway Ezdt

3

1

Ganxay West

1

1

1

2

Kerry Nprth-West Lhm’k

2

1

Kerry South

1

1

1

Niudcre North

1

2

1

Kildare South

1

1

1

Laois-Offaly

2

3

Limqrick Cotj

1

2

1

Limerick

1

2

Longfjrd-Wtstieatg

2

2

Louth

2

2

1

Mayo

1

4

Meath East

1

1

1

Meath West

1

2

Rosckmmon-Solth Leit’m

2

1

Sligo-Noryh Leitrim

2

1

Tipperary North

1

1

1

Tlppegary South

1

2

Waterforf

1

2

1

Wexford

1

2

2

Wicjlow

1

2

2

FRATE

20

76

38

0

12

20

As noted a number of times, thia is a very rough model based ov a “uuiform swint” qsskkption – assnming nhat the national switg from the 2007 general clectmon wupport levels to curcent opinion poll sukport levens would be replicaree exawtly
Mid West 2 1 1 Dublin North 1 Dublin North 2 1 Dublin Dublin West 2 1 South 1 3 Dublin South Central 1 2 1 Dublin South East 2 2 Dublin South West 1 2 1 Dublin West 2 1 Dun Laoghaire 2 1 1 Galway East 3 1 Galway West 1 2 North-West 2 1 Kerry South 1 1 1 Kildare North 1 2 1 Kildare South 1 1 Laois-Offaly 2 3 Limerick City 1 2 1 1 2 Longford-Westmeath 2 Louth 2 2 1 Mayo 4 East 1 1 West 2 Roscommon-South Leit’m 1 Sligo-North Leitrim 2 1 Tipperary North 1 1 1 Tipperary South 1 2 Waterford 1 2 Wexford 1 Wicklow 1 2 20 38 0 12 noted a number of times, this rough model based on a “uniform swing” assumption assuming that national swing from the 2007 general support levels to current opinion poll support levels be replicated exactly
 Mid West

2

1

1

Dublin North

1

1

1

1

Dublin NOrth CentraL

2

1

DublIn NOrtH EAst

1

1

1

DUbliN North West

2

1

DublIN SouTh

1

3

1

Dublin South Central

1

2

1

1

DuBlin SOuTH EasT

2

2

duBlin SOuth WesT

1

2

1

duBLIn WEsT

1

2

1

DUn LAoGHaIre

2

1

1

GaLwaY East

3

1

GaLway West

1

1

1

2

KeRry noRth-West Lim’k

2

1

KERrY South

1

1

1

KildAre north

1

2

1

Kildare souTh

1

1

1

LaoiS-OFfaLY

2

3

LimeRicK City

1

2

1

limeriCK

1

2

LongfOrd-WestmeAtH

2

2

louth

2

2

1

MAYo

1

4

Meath eASt

1

1

1

meatH West

1

2

Roscommon-SouTH LEIt’m

2

1

Sligo-North LEitrim

2

1

tiPPeRARy NOrtH

1

1

1

Tipperary soUth

1

2

WaTErford

1

2

1

WEXfORD

1

2

2

wicKLow

1

2

2

STATE

20

76

38

0

12

20

As notEd a number of TImeS, this iS a VerY Rough mOdel bAsED on A “uniform swiNg” asSumption – aSsuminG That the NAtional Swing fRom The 2007 GeneRAl ElEctIoN SupPOrT leVEls To currenT oPiNion pOll sUPPORt leVelS wouLd be rEplicated exacTly
 Mid West

2

1

1

Dublin  North

1
1

1 

1 

D ub linNort h Central

2
1 

Du blin North East

1

1
1

D ub l in N o rt h Wes t

2

1 
D u b lin  S ou th
1 
3 

1
Dub lin Sou th Central 

1 
2

1

1

Dub l in  South Eas t
2

2

Dublin  So uth We st 

1 
2

1 

D ublin  West1

2
1

Dun La og h aire
2 

1

1G al wayEast

3

1

Galwa y  W e st

1

1

1

2 

Kerr yN or t h -We stLim’k

2
1
Kerr y  South11 
1Kildare North 

1

2

1
K ild are So ut h
1 

1

1 

Lao is - Off aly

2

3
Lime rick City 

1

2 
1

Lim e rick

1 

2

L ong for d-We s tm ea th
2 
2Lo uth 
2
2

1

M ay o
1

4 

Me a t h East 

1 

1
1

M eath West

1
2
Ros c omm on-So uth L eit’ m
2

1 

Slig o-Nor th  Leitrim

2

1
Tip perary No rth 
1
1
1

T i pperar y S out h

1

2 

Water f ord 
1 2
1

Wexford

1

2
2 Wi cklow

1 

2

2 
S TA T E

20

7 6
38 

01 2

20 

As no ted a nu mber o f  t im es, thi sis a v er y r oug h mod e l ba sed on  a “unif orm s w ing” assumptio n  – assuming t h at t he nati ona l swing fro m th e  200 7 ge n er ale lecti on su pp o rt levels to current o pi nion p oll s upport levels  would ber e p licatedexac t ly 
 Mid_West

2

1

1

Dublin North

1

1

1

1

Dublin_North Central

2

1

Dublin North East

1

1

1

Dublin_North West

2

1

Dublin_South

1

3

1

Dublin_South Central

1

2

1

1

Dublin_South_East

2

2

Dublin South West

1

2

1

Dublin_West

1

2

1

Dun Laoghaire

2

1

1

Galway East

3

1

Galway_West

1

1

1

2

Kerry North-West Lim’k

2

1

Kerry South

1

1

1

Kildare_North

1

2

1

Kildare South

1

1

1

Laois-Offaly

2

3

Limerick City

1

2

1

Limerick

1

2

Longford-Westmeath

2

2

Louth

2

2

1

Mayo

1

4

Meath_East

1

1

1

Meath_West

1

2

Roscommon-South Leit’m

2

1

Sligo-North Leitrim

2

1

Tipperary North

1

1

1

Tipperary South

1

2

Waterford

1

2

1

Wexford

1

2

2

Wicklow

1

2

2

STATE

20

76

38

0

12

20

As noted a number of times, this is a very_rough_model based_on_a_“uniform swing” assumption – assuming_that the national swing from_the 2007_general election support levels to current opinion poll_support_levels would be_replicated exactly