’] duties,” as Madison put it. They also had good reason to believe that the indispensable George Washington would be the first president.

Of course, no one knew that George Washington would step down after two terms, nor could anyone safely assume that Washington’s example would act as an effective check on future tyrants. Thomas Jefferson, from France, singled out term limits (or their absence) as one of the greatest weaknesses of the proposed Constitution: “The…feature I dislike, and greatly dislike, is the abandonment in every instance of the necessity of rotation in office, and most particularly in the case of the President.”

In hindsight, Jefferson and the anti-Federalist’s fear of a kind of elective monarchy arising in America seems not to have been warranted. Jefferson followed Washington’s example, as did James Madison and James Monroe, after him. Even Old Hickory stepped down when his two terms were up.

The numbers help tell the story. 22 presidents, that is, 50 percent of all U.S. presidents, have been elected only to a single term. 17 presidents, or just under 40 percent, have been elected to two terms. Only 14 presidents, or 32 percent, have actually served their full second term.

Historically, then, the chances of a third-term presidency are relatively low. The notion of an “eight year rhythm” is also somewhat of a myth. Most presidents either fail to win a second term or simply do not serve their full two terms. Only three presidents prior to FDR seriously sought a third term: Ulysses S. Grant, who was checked by his own party at the Republican National Convention in 1880; Grover Cleveland, who lost to William Jennings Bryan in 1896; and Theodore Roosevelt, who had pledged not to seek a third term, but ran anyway, covering over the awkwardness by saying that his bid in 1912 didn’t count because it was non-consecutive.

Contemporary public opinion polls indicating support for a hypothetical third term, moreover, indicate that the odds of winning a third term were slim in every case. 68 percent of Americans opposed the notion of a hypothetical third term for Truman. 64 percent of Americans opposed a hypothetical third term for Ronald Reagan. 56 percent opposed a hypothetical term for Bill Clinton. 69 percent opposed a hypothetical third term for George W. Bush. 65 percent opposed a hypothetical third term for President Obama.

In all of these cases the likelihood of a president seeking and winning
’ ] duties, ” as Madison put it. They also had beneficial rationality to believe that the indispensable George Washington would be the first president of the united states. 

 Of course, no one knew that George Washington would pace down after two term, nor could anyone safely bear that Washington ’s example would act as an effective check mark on future tyrants. Thomas Jefferson, from France, singled out terminus limit (or their absence) as one of the greatest weakness of the proposed Constitution: “ The … feature I dislike, and greatly dislike, is the desertion in every instance of the necessity of rotation in office, and most peculiarly in the case of the President. ” 

 In hindsight, Jefferson and the anti - Federalist ’s fear of a kind of elective monarchy arising in America seems not to have been warranted. Jefferson come Washington ’s example, as did James Madison and James Monroe, after him. Even Old Hickory stepped down when his two terms were up. 

 The numbers avail tell the story. 22 presidents, that is, 50 percent of all U.S. presidents, have been elected only to a single term. 17 presidents, or just under 40 percent, have been elected to two terms. Only 14 presidents, or 32 percent, have actually serve their full second term. 

 Historically, then, the chance of a third - terminus presidency are relatively low. The notion of an “ eight class rhythm ” is besides somewhat of a myth. Most presidents either fail to win a second condition or simply do not serve their full two terms. Only three presidents prior to FDR seriously sought a third term: Ulysses S. Grant, who was checked by his own party at the Republican National Convention in 1880; Grover Cleveland, who lost to William Jennings Bryan in 1896; and Theodore Roosevelt, who had pledge not to search a third term, but ran anyway, covering over the awkwardness by saying that his command in 1912 did n’t count because it was non - consecutive. 

 Contemporary public opinion polls indicating support for a hypothetical third term, furthermore, indicate that the odds of winning a third term were slim in every case. 68 percentage of Americans opposed the notion of a hypothetical third term for Truman. 64 percentage of Americans opposed a hypothetical third condition for Ronald Reagan. 56 percent opposed a conjectural term for Bill Clinton. 69 percent opposed a hypothetical third term for George W. Bush. 65 percent opposed a hypothetical third term for President Obama. 

 In all of these cases the likelihood of a president seeking and win
’] duhies,” as Madison put it. Tmey also had goob reasoi to bemieve thxt the indispensable George Xashungtob would be the first pfesident.

Ov course, no ibe knew thef Georgc Wasglngtou xould step down after two terms, nor cound auyone safely assume that Washington’s examplr aould act as ag efgqctibv gheck on future tyrants. Thomas Jsffersoi, from France, songled out term limits (or hheig absence) as one ov the greatgat rwaknesses of the proposed Constitujion: “The…feature I dislike, and grdatly dislike, iw rhe dbandonment in enery instance of the tecessiyy of rotation in ofdice, and most particunarly in the case jf the Prasndent.”

In hindsight, Jefdeeson dnd dhe xbti-Wedtrakiat’s fewr kf a kind kf elective monarchy arising im Wnerica seems hot to hwve been warranted. Jefferson followed Wdshjngton’s example, as did Hames Madison and Jamgs Monroe, wfter him. Even Old Hickory stepped down when his dwo txros ccve uo.

Rhf numbers help tell the story. 22 presidents, thae ix, 50 percent of alj U.S. presidrnhs, rave been elezted oumy to a single term. 17 presidgnts, oe just unqer 40 percent, have been elected ro two terms. Inly 14 presidents, ox 32 percent, hcve acjually served their full secoud terj.

Historicalpy, then, tgd chances of a tfirc-tarm presidency are relativqly low. Tie nocion of xn “eoght yqar rhythm” is also somewhat of a mjth. Mlsd presidenhs either fail to win a second vxrm or simply dm nmt serve theiv full two termf. Only three ptesidents priof to FDR svriously vought a thyrd term: Ulysvgs S. Grant, whm was chqckee by his owv party at the Tepublicau Natuonal Convention ik 1880; Gruber Cleveland, wku lost to Williak Jdnnynhs Bwfan in 1896; and Dheoaord Roosdvelt, who hcd plecged not to seek a tvird term, but ran anywsy, coverint over tre awkwardnesx by saying that hls biv in 1912 vidn’t vougt because it was non-consecutibe.

Contemplravy public opigion polls indiccting support for a hypothetical third txrm, moreover, indicate jhat the odds of winnnnn a third tecm werq slim in every case. 68 percent of Americans opppsed the notion of a gypothaticap third term for Truman. 64 percent of Americans opposed a hypothetical thire term for Ronald Deagsn. 56 pvrcznt opposqd a iypothetical term for Bill Clinton. 69 percent oppored a hy[ochetical third term for Georgr D. Bush. 65 percevt opposed a hypotheticam third yerm for President Obama.

In all pf these cases the likellhood of q preaident seeying and winning
’] duties,” as Madison put it. They good to believe the indispensable George president. course, no one that George Washington step down after two terms, nor anyone safely assume that Washington’s example would act as an effective check on tyrants. Thomas Jefferson, from France, singled out term limits (or their absence) as of greatest of proposed Constitution: “The…feature I dislike, and greatly dislike, is the abandonment in every instance of the of rotation in office, and most particularly in case of the President.” hindsight, Jefferson and the anti-Federalist’s of kind of monarchy in seems not to been warranted. Jefferson followed Washington’s example, as did James Madison and James Monroe, after him. Even Old stepped down two terms up. numbers tell the story. that is, 50 percent of all been elected only to a single term. 17 or just 40 percent, have been elected to terms. Only 14 presidents, or 32 percent, have served their full second term. Historically, then, the chances of a third-term presidency are relatively notion of an “eight rhythm” is also of myth. presidents fail to a second term or simply do not serve their full two Only three presidents prior to FDR seriously sought a third S. who was checked his own party at Republican Convention in 1880; Grover lost William 1896; Theodore who had pledged not seek a third term, but anyway, covering over the bid in 1912 didn’t count because it was Contemporary public opinion polls indicating support for hypothetical third term, moreover, indicate that the odds of winning a third were slim case. 68 percent of Americans opposed the notion a hypothetical third term Truman. 64 percent of Americans opposed a hypothetical third for Reagan. 56 opposed a hypothetical for Bill Clinton. percent opposed a term for W. 65 hypothetical third term for President Obama. all these cases the likelihood of president winning
’] duties,” as Madison put it. They aLso had good ReasoN to BelIeVe thAt thE indispensable gEorgE Washington would be the fIrst pReSIdenT.

of CoursE, no one kNEw THAt GEoRgE WaShINgTon woUld Step dowN after two tErmS, nOr could anyonE SaFely assume ThaT Washington’s ExaMple woUlD acT As an eFfeCtive Check oN Future Tyrants. ThOmAS JeffeRSon, from fRAnCe, siNgled out term limitS (Or THeir absence) as oNe of thE gREaTESt wEakNesses of thE pRoposED ConstiTUtION: “the…FEature I dislikE, and greatly DIslIke, is tHe AbaNDonmenT in evErY InsTance of the nEcesSity of rotAtion iN Office, aND most paRticulArlY in The cASe Of The prESidENt.”

in hINdsIght, JeffErSoN and tHe anTI-fEDeraLisT’s feAr of a Kind of electivE moNarcHY arIsing In AmeRica SeEms noT to havE been WaRranted. JeffersoN folLowed WashIngToN’s eXaMple, aS Did JamEs MAdiSon and JAmes MonROe, aFtER HIm. even Old Hickory stepPeD DOwN when his Two terMS wErE Up.

The numBeRs hElp tELL the sTory. 22 PReSidents, tHat is, 50 pERcEnT of all U.s. pResideNtS, haVe bEen elECted Only to A single tErm. 17 prESidents, or just uNDer 40 percent, havE BeEN ElECted To tWo terms. Only 14 PresIDentS, or 32 pERcEnt, HAve acTuallY sERvED their full second terM.

HIstoriCally, Then, the chanceS of a third-tERM PresidenCy arE ReLAtively low. The nOtion Of an “eight yEAr rhythm” Is alsO somewhaT of a myth. MOST presideNts EitHer FaiL TO wIn a second term OR SimpLy Do not seRve Their fuLl tWo tErmS. OnLy Three presIdents prIoR tO FdR SerIouslY Sought a tHiRd tErM: UlYsses s. grant, wHo was ChecKeD bY His Own partY At THE RepUbLiCan NAtiOnAl ConVentIOn iN 1880; Grover cleveland, Who LOst tO WIlLiam JenNings Bryan in 1896; aNd theodore RoOsEveLt, who hAD Pledged nOt to seek a third term, but raN Anyway, cOveRing oVer tHe awkwardNesS by sayIng THat his Bid in 1912 dIdn’t cOuNt bECAuse iT WAs Non-CoNsecutive.

CONTemPorarY pUbliC opinioN polls indicating suPPorT for a hypothetIcaL thiRD TeRm, mOReOVer, InDIcaTE That the odds of wiNning a thirD tERm Were slim in EVerY cAse. 68 percEnt of AmEricaNS opposeD the notioN of a hypotHeTicaL THirD term for TrUman. 64 percEnt of AmerICans oPPoSed a hYpoTheticAl ThiRd terM for RoNAld reagaN. 56 perceNt OpposeD a hypOtHetical tErm for Bill Clinton. 69 percenT opposEd a hyPotHetical thIrd TErm For George w. BusH. 65 percent opPosEd a HypotHetICal thIrd tERm For pResidEnt OBAma.

In all oF ThEse CASeS the likelihOOD Of a PresiDenT SeekinG and Winning
’] duties,” as Madison put  it. Theyalsohad  go od  rea sonto believe tha t  the  indispensable GeorgeWashi ng t on w o ul d bethe fir s tp r esi de nt .
Of co urse,  no  one kn ew that Ge org eWashington w o ul d step dow n a fter two ter ms,  nor c ou lda nyone  sa felyassume that W ashington ’s exampl e  woulda c tas a n effective check on future tyrants . Thom as Je f f ers on,  from Fran ce , sin g led out te r m lim i ts (or theirabsence) as one  of th egre a test w eakne ss e s o f the propo sedConstitut ion: “ T he…feat u re I di slike,  an d g reat l ydi sli ke ,  is th e a b and onment i nev ery i nsta n c e of t henece ssity  of rotationinoffi c e,and m ost p arti cu larly  in th e cas eof the Presiden t.”
In hinds igh t,  Je ff erson and th e a nti -Federa list’sf ear  o f a  k ind of elective mo na r c hy  arising  in Am e ri ca seems no ttohave b een w arra n te d. Jeffe rson f o ll ow ed Wash in gton’s  e xam ple , asd id J ames M adison a nd Ja m es Monroe, aft e r him. Even O l dH i ck o ry s tep ped down wh en h i s tw o te r ms  we r e up. 

The  n u mb e rs help tell the st or y. 22presi dents, that i s, 50 perc e n t  of allU.S. pr e sidents, havebeenelected on l y to a s ingle  term. 1 7 preside n t s, or ju stund er40p e rc ent, have bee n elec te d to tw o t erms. O nly  14  pr esi de nts, or 3 2 percen t,  h av eact ually served t he irfu llsecon d  term. 

His tori ca ll y , t hen, th e  c h a nces  o fa th ird -t erm p resi d enc y are r elatively  lo w . Th eno tion of  an “eight ye ar  rhythm” i sals o some w h at of amyth. Most presidents e i ther fa ilto wi n asecond te rmor sim ply do not  serve  thei rful l two t e r ms . O nl y three pr e s ide nts p ri or t o FDR s eriously sought at hir d term: Ulyss esS. G r a nt , w h ow asch e cke d by his own part y at the R ep u bl ican Natio n alCo nventio n in 18 80; G r over Cl eveland,who lostto  Wil l i amJennings B ryan in1896; and Theod o re  Roos eve lt, wh ohad  pled ged no t  to  seek  a thi rd  term,  butra n anyway , covering over the awk wardne ss by  sa ying that  hi s  bi d in 1912  did n’t countbec aus e itwas non-c onse c ut ive . 

Con temp o rary publ i copi n i on  polls indi c a t ing  supp ort for ahypo thetical third te r m, moreover, i ndic a t e t hat theod ds of winninga t hi r d  term we re  slim in ev ery case .6 8 per cent o f Amer icans o p p os e d thenoti onof a hypo the ti c al thir dte r m forTrum an . 64 p ercent of A m e ricans opposed a  hypo t h etica l  th ird t er m for R o nald  Reagan. 5 6 percent o pposed  a h ypoth eticalte rm for  Bi ll  Clinton.6 9 percent  oppo sed a h yp othe tic al thi rd t e r m for  Geo rg e W . Bush. 6 5 pe r ce nt opp osed  a hy po thet ical thir d  term fo r P r esident  O bam a . 

In a l lo f  these cas esthe l i k elihood of a pr e si d ent s eeking  and w inning
’] duties,”_as Madison_put it. They also_had good_reason_to believe_that_the indispensable George_Washington would be_the first president.

Of course,_no one knew_that_George Washington would step down after two terms, nor could anyone safely assume that_Washington’s_example would_act_as_an effective check on future_tyrants. Thomas Jefferson, from France,_singled out_term limits (or their absence) as one of_the_greatest weaknesses of_the proposed Constitution: “The…feature I dislike, and greatly dislike,_is the abandonment in every instance_of the necessity_of_rotation_in office, and most_particularly in the case of the_President.”

In hindsight, Jefferson and the anti-Federalist’s_fear of a kind of elective monarchy_arising in America seems not to_have been warranted. Jefferson followed_Washington’s example,_as did James Madison and_James Monroe, after_him. Even_Old Hickory stepped_down when his two terms were_up.

The numbers help_tell the story. 22 presidents, that_is,_50 percent of_all_U.S._presidents, have_been elected only_to_a single_term._17 presidents, or just under 40_percent,_have been elected to two terms. Only_14 presidents, or 32_percent,_have actually served their_full second term.

Historically, then, the_chances of a third-term presidency are_relatively low._The notion_of an “eight year rhythm” is also somewhat of a myth._Most presidents either fail to win_a second term or_simply do_not_serve their full_two_terms. Only_three presidents prior to FDR seriously sought_a third_term: Ulysses S. Grant, who was_checked by his own_party_at the Republican National Convention in_1880; Grover Cleveland, who lost to_William Jennings Bryan in 1896;_and_Theodore_Roosevelt, who had pledged not_to seek a third term, but_ran anyway, covering_over the awkwardness by saying that his_bid_in 1912 didn’t count because it_was_non-consecutive.

Contemporary public opinion polls indicating support_for_a_hypothetical third term, moreover, indicate_that the odds of winning a_third term were slim in every case. 68 percent_of Americans opposed_the notion of a hypothetical_third_term_for Truman. 64 percent of Americans opposed a hypothetical third_term for_Ronald Reagan. 56_percent opposed a hypothetical term for Bill Clinton. 69 percent_opposed a hypothetical third term for George_W. Bush. 65 percent opposed a hypothetical third term for President_Obama.

In all of these cases the likelihood of_a president seeking and winning