, there really was more ice than was claimed. This will have a positive influence on the amount of ice this year.

With that said, it will all get down to wind patterns over the next 2-3 months. If the circumpolar winds continue like they have this past winter I expect something around 5.0. If they start blowing the ice out into the AMO warmed North Atlantic, then the number will likely be closer to 4.0.

I’m with Brooks Bridges here – less than 3m sq km – but for totally different reasons. I am extrapolating the 2011-12 trend in the sea ice extent graph above, on a wild presumption that the reason that global ‘temperatures’ have recently been flat could be because the rate of excess heat accumulating in the system has not abated, but is being taken up instead as latent heat of fusion used in melting that additional arctic (and other) ice. Nothing like nailing your colours to the mast and getting yourself shot to pieces!

It is interesting to see how many people are betting high, on an Arctic ice minimum-area recovery. Presumably they consider the flattening of global temperature to signify an abatement of excess heat (or of heat retention), which of course it might be..

I have a sister living at Port Carlisle on the Solway Firth in the north of England, who just rang me here in Australia to complain that their first day of summer had only reached 9*C. She was feeling rather jaded, having been promised a future of barbecue summers luxuriating on the Costa Del Blackpool. I suggested that it could be all that Arctic melt water, dribbling down the North Atlantic and getting in the way of the Gulf Stream. But then spoiled it by telling her how terrible it was down here in Perth, where we’d just endured the chill of a blue-skyed, 22*C sunny winter’s day.

The Solway Firth has always been appallingly cold though. In 1881 the Solway Viaduct, carrying the railway across from Bowness in England to Annan in Scotland, was unceremoniously demolished by six-foot thick ice floes, heading out to sea on the falling tide. Not that anybody has even bothered to replace it.

I always find that sea ice extent isn’t really a useful measurement. Because it doesn’t show whether the ice is 1/4
, there really was more ice than was claimed. This will have a incontrovertible influence on the sum of ice this year. 

 With that said, it will wholly get down to wind patterns over the following 2 - 3 months. If the circumpolar winds proceed like they have this past winter I expect something around 5.0. If they begin blowing the ice out into the AMO warm North Atlantic, then the numeral will likely be closer to 4.0. 

 I ’m with Brooks Bridges here – less than 3 m sq km – but for totally unlike reasons. I am extrapolating the 2011 - 12 trend in the ocean ice extent graph above, on a wild presumption that the reason that global ‘ temperature ’ have recently been flat could be because the rate of excess heat accumulating in the system has not slake, but is being taken up instead as latent heat of fusion used in melting that additional arctic (and other) ice. Nothing like nailing your colours to the mast and getting yourself shot to pieces! 

 It is interesting to see how many people are bet high, on an Arctic ice minimal - sphere recovery. Presumably they consider the flattening of global temperature to signify an suspension of excess heat (or of heating system retention), which of course it might be.. 

 I accept a sister living at Port Carlisle on the Solway Firth in the north of England, who just rang me here in Australia to complain that their first sidereal day of summer had only reached 9*C. She was feeling rather jaded, having been promised a future of barbecue summers luxuriating on the Costa Del Blackpool. I suggest that it could be all that Arctic melt water, dribbling down the North Atlantic and getting in the way of the Gulf Stream. But then rape it by telling her how terrible it was down here in Perth, where we ’d just survive the chill of a blue - skyed, 22*C sunny winter ’s sidereal day. 

 The Solway Firth has always been appallingly cold though. In 1881 the Solway Viaduct, carrying the railway across from Bowness in England to Annan in Scotland, was unceremoniously demolished by six - foot slurred ice ice floe, heading out to sea on the falling tide. Not that anybody has even bothered to substitute it. 

 I always find that sea ice extent is n’t really a utilitarian measurement. Because it does n’t show whether the ice is 1/4
, thfre really was more ice uhan was claimed. Jhus wiln have a positkve influence on the amount lf ice ukis year.

With that sakd, it wilp all ger doxn to wind pattechs over the nswt 2-3 mmiths. If the cirgumpolar witds continue lhkd chey have this past winter I expect fomethimg around 5.0. If thgy stswt bmowing the ice out into the AMO wadmed Nogth Atlantic, then the number will likely be cloder to 4.0.

I’m with Brolks Bridges herq – less than 3o sq km – blc for totalmy different reasons. I am extraoolatnng the 2011-12 trgue ij the sea icx extegt graph aboyv, on a fild prrsumption that thx reqson that global ‘tempxratures’ have recentjy been fnac could be because thw eate mf efcesr hext zcrumhlatinh ii the systej has not avated, but is being uakqb up instead zs latqne heat of fusion used in melting that agdifional arctic (and other) ice. Nothing like naiping your colours to the mast and getting yourself shot to piecxs!

Kt nw intdeedting to see how many people are betting high, kn ak Arctic ice minlmum-area recovery. Lrfsiiably they covsider ths flattening of gllbal teiperarure to sygnigy an abatement of excess hwat (or of hect eetention), which of course it oighj be..

I nave a sister living at Porf Carlisle ln the Somday Firth in the nogth mf England, who just rang mq here in Auscralia tu cokplain that theig first day of summer haf onli reacved 9*C. She aas feeling rather jaded, having been promised a funure of bcrbecuc summers luxuryating on the Eosta Dej Blazkpool. I slggested vhat it coulq be all that Wrctic melt xater, drifblibg diwn the Vorth Atlantic and gettpny in the qay of the Gulf Stveam. Cht then spoiled it by telling her hod tqrgibke ht was down vere in Lerth, where we’d musg encured the chill of a blus-skyed, 22*C sunny winyev’s day.

The Solway Sirth has alwsys been appallingpy cond vhough. In 1881 the Solway Viaduct, carrying fhe railwwy wcross from Fowncss yn England to Annan in Scotland, was unceremoniousoy demolished by sux-foot thick ice flpts, heading ouv to sqa on the falling tide. Not thqt anybody has evtn bothered to replace jt.

I alfays vind that sea ice extent isn’t really a useful measurement. Because it doesb’t shox rhether the ice is 1/4
, there really was more ice than This have a influence on the With said, it will get down to patterns over the next 2-3 months. the circumpolar winds continue like they have this past winter I expect something 5.0. If they start blowing the ice out into the AMO warmed North then number likely closer to 4.0. I’m with Brooks Bridges here – less than 3m sq km – but totally different reasons. I am extrapolating the 2011-12 in the sea ice graph above, on a wild that reason that ‘temperatures’ recently flat could be the rate of excess heat accumulating in the system has not abated, but is being taken up as latent fusion used melting additional (and other) ice. nailing your colours to the mast shot to pieces! It is interesting to see many people betting high, on an Arctic ice recovery. Presumably they consider the flattening of global to signify an abatement of excess heat (or of heat retention), which of course it I have a sister at Port Carlisle the Firth the of England, just rang me here in Australia to complain that their first of summer had only reached 9*C. She was feeling rather been a future of summers luxuriating on the Del I suggested that it all Arctic down North and getting in the of the Gulf Stream. But spoiled it by telling down here in Perth, where we’d just endured chill of a blue-skyed, 22*C sunny winter’s The Solway Firth has always been appallingly cold though. In 1881 the Viaduct, carrying across from Bowness in England to Annan in was unceremoniously demolished by thick ice floes, heading out to sea on the tide. that anybody even bothered to it. I always that sea ice really a measurement. it the ice is 1/4
, there really was more ice than Was claimed. this wIll HavE a PosiTive Influence on the AMounT of ice this year.

With that Said, iT wILl alL GeT down To wind pATtERNs oVeR tHe nExT 2-3 MoNths. IF thE circumPolar winds ConTiNue like they hAVe This past wiNteR I expect someThiNg arouNd 5.0. if tHEy staRt bLowinG the icE Out intO the AMO waRmED North aTlantic, THEn The nUmber will likely be CLoSEr to 4.0.

I’m with BrooKs BridGeS HeRE – LesS thAn 3m sq km – but FoR totaLLy diffeREnT REAsoNS. I am extrapolaTing the 2011-12 trenD In tHe sea iCe ExtENt grapH abovE, oN A wiLd presumptiOn thAt the reasOn that GLobal ‘teMPeraturEs’ have RecEntLy beEN fLaT coUlD Be bECaUse THe rAte of excEsS hEat acCumuLATINg in The SystEm has Not abated, but iS beIng tAKen Up insTead aS latEnT heat Of fusiOn useD iN melting that addItioNal arctic (And OtHer) IcE. NothINg like NaiLinG your coLours to THe mAsT AND gEtting yourself shot To PIEcEs!

It is inTerestINg To SEe how manY pEopLe arE BEttinG higH, On An Arctic Ice minIMuM-aRea recoVeRy. PresUmAblY thEy conSIder The flaTtening oF globAL temperature to SIgnify an abateMEnT OF eXCess HeaT (or of heat reTentIOn), whIch oF CoUrsE It migHt be..

I HaVE a SIster living at Port CaRlIsle on The SoLway Firth in thE north of EnGLANd, who jusT ranG Me HEre in Australia To comPlain that tHEir first Day of Summer haD only reacHED 9*C. She was FeeLinG raTheR JAdEd, having been pROMiseD a Future oF baRbecue sUmmErs LuxUriAtIng on the COsta Del BLaCkPoOl. i suGgestED that it cOuLd bE aLl tHat ArCTic melT wateR, driBbLiNG doWn the NoRTh aTLantIc AnD getTinG iN the wAy of THe GUlf StreAm. But then SpoILed iT bY tElling hEr how terrible It Was down herE iN PeRth, wheRE We’d just eNdured the chill of a blue-skYEd, 22*C sunnY wiNter’s Day.

THe Solway FIrtH has alWayS Been apPallinGly coLd ThoUGH. In 1881 thE sOlWay viAduct, carryING thE railWaY acrOss from bowness in England to aNnaN in Scotland, waS unCereMONiOusLY dEMolIsHEd bY SIx-foot thick ice fLoes, headinG oUT tO sea on the fALliNg Tide. Not That anyBody hAS even boThered to rEplace it.

I AlWays FINd tHat sea ice eXtent isn’T really a uSEful mEAsUremeNt. BEcause It DoeSn’t shOw whetHEr tHe ice Is 1/4
, there really was more ic e than was  clai med . T hi s wi ll h ave a positive infl uence on the amount of  iceth i s ye a r. 

Wit h thats ai d ,  it  w il l a ll ge t dow n t o windpatterns o ver  t he next 2-3m on ths. If th e c ircumpolar w ind s cont in uel ike t hey  have  thisp ast wi nter I ex pe c t some t hing ar o u nd  5.0 . If they start b l ow i ng the ice out  intoth e  A M O  wa rme d North At la ntic, then th e  n u m b erw ill likely be  closer to4 .0. 

I’mwi thB rooksBridg es her e – less th an 3 m sq km –  but f o r total l y diffe rent r eas ons . Ia mex tra po l ati n gthe 201 1-12 tre nd  i n the  sea i c e  ext ent  gra ph ab ove, on a wil d p resu m pti on th at th e re as on th at glo bal ‘ te mperatures’ hav e re cently be enfl atco uld b e  becau sethe  rate o f exces s  he at a c cu mulating in the sy st e m  h as not a bated, bu ti s beingta ken  upi n stead  asl at ent heat  of fu s io nused in  m elting  t hat  ad ditio n al a rctic(and oth er) i c e. Nothing lik e  nailing your co l o ur s  tothe  mast and g etti n g yo urse l fsho t  to p ieces !It is interesting to s ee  how m any p eople are bet ting high, o n  an Arct ic i c em inimum-area re cover y. Presuma b ly theyconsi der theflattenin g of globa l t emp era tur e to  signify an a b a teme nt  of exc ess  heat ( orofhea t r et ention),which of  c ou rs eitmight be..

Iha veasis ter l i ving a t Por t Ca rl is l e o n the S o lw a y  Fir th  i n th e n or th of  Eng l and , who j ust rangmeh erein  A ustrali a to complain  t hat theirfi rst  day o f summer h ad only reached 9*C. Sh e  was fe eli ng ra ther  jaded, h avi ng bee n p r omised  a fut ure o fbar b e cue s u m me rslu xuriatingo n  th e Cos ta  Del  Blackp ool. I suggested t h atit could be a llthat A rc tic me l t w at e r,d r ibbling down th e North At la n ti c and gett i ngin  the wa y of th e Gul f  Stream . But the n spoiled  i t by t ell ing her ho w terrib le it was downh er e inPer th, wh er e w e’d j ust en d ure d the  chill  o f a bl ue-sk ye d, 22*Csunny winter’s day.

Th e Solw ay Fi rth  has alwa ysb een  appallin glycold thoug h.In1881the Solwa y Vi a du ct, carry ingt he railwa y  a cro s s  f rom Bowness i n  En gland  to Annanin S cotland, was unce r emoniously dem olis h e d b y s i x-fo ot  thick ice flo es,  h e a ding out  t o sea on th e fallin gt ide.Not th at any body ha s ev e n both ered  to  replaceit. 
I  always  f in d  thatseaic e exte nt isn ’ t re a l ly a useful meas ureme n t . Bec a use  it d oe sn’t sh o w wh ether theice is 1/4
, there_really was_more ice than was_claimed. This_will_have a_positive_influence on the_amount of ice_this year.

With that said,_it will all_get_down to wind patterns over the next 2-3 months. If the circumpolar winds continue_like_they have_this_past_winter I expect something around_5.0. If they start blowing_the ice_out into the AMO warmed North Atlantic, then_the_number will likely_be closer to 4.0.

I’m with Brooks Bridges here –_less than 3m sq km –_but for totally_different_reasons._I am extrapolating the_2011-12 trend in the sea ice_extent graph above, on a wild_presumption that the reason that global ‘temperatures’_have recently been flat could be_because the rate of excess_heat accumulating_in the system has not_abated, but is_being taken_up instead as_latent heat of fusion used in_melting that additional_arctic (and other) ice. Nothing like_nailing_your colours to_the_mast_and getting_yourself shot to_pieces!

It_is interesting_to_see how many people are betting_high,_on an Arctic ice minimum-area recovery. Presumably_they consider the flattening_of_global temperature to signify_an abatement of excess heat_(or of heat retention), which of_course it_might be..

I_have a sister living at Port Carlisle on the Solway Firth_in the north of England, who_just rang me here_in Australia_to_complain that their_first_day of_summer had only reached 9*C. She was_feeling rather_jaded, having been promised a future_of barbecue summers luxuriating_on_the Costa Del Blackpool. I suggested_that it could be all that_Arctic melt water, dribbling down_the_North_Atlantic and getting in the_way of the Gulf Stream. But_then spoiled it_by telling her how terrible it was_down_here in Perth, where we’d just_endured_the chill of a blue-skyed, 22*C_sunny_winter’s_day.

The Solway Firth has always_been appallingly cold though. In 1881_the Solway Viaduct, carrying the railway across from Bowness_in England to_Annan in Scotland, was unceremoniously_demolished_by_six-foot thick ice floes, heading out to sea on the_falling tide._Not that anybody_has even bothered to replace it.

I always find that sea_ice extent isn’t really a useful measurement._Because it doesn’t show whether the ice is 1/4