 with scrutiny. For example, when Appel and Haken proved the four-color theorem in 1976, they used a computer to enumerate 1,936 special cases that were, in some sense, lemmas of their proof. At the time, many mathematicians did not consider the theorem truly proved. Now computer-assisted proofs are common and generally (but not universally) accepted.

Conversely, a substantial body of economic analysis is based on a model of human behavior called ``Economic man,'' or, with tongue in cheek, Homo economicus. Research based on this model was highly-regarded for several decades, especially if it involved mathematical virtuosity. More recently, this model is treated with more skepticism, and models that include imperfect information and bounded rationality are hot topics.

At this point I have laid out a lot of ideas for one article, and explained them very briefly. Think Complexity gets into these topics in more detail, but I will stop here for now. Next time I will talk about related shifts in engineering and (a little farther afield) in ways of thinking.

1 comment:

I think we lack the historical perspective to judge if it is a revolution of paradigm shift. In term of years it is a long period, it is short only through the lenses of history.

For me, Aumann's Interactive Epistemology papers are very appealing. The probability paper describes the empiricist side, the logic paper the "simulations". It's nice to see that a big thinker sees no contradiction between the two approaches. Monday, October 31, 2011

Niall Ferguson does not know what "Western Civilization" means

"The blood of Numenor is all but spent, its pride and dignity forgotten." - Elrond

I am forced to break my self-imposed blogging moratorium, in order to comment on an article by Niall Ferguson that recently appeared in what is left of Newsweek magazine. In this article, Ferguson warns darkly of a rapid collapse of American civilization. The article is, on its face, a fairly bland call for America (and "The West" in general) to wake up, get with the program, and recover its lost greatness. Fine. But there is a deeply disturbing subtext that annoyed me so much that...well, here, I'll just let you see for yourself.

First, Ferguson's thesis:

I believe it’s time to
with scrutiny. For example, when Appel and Haken proved the four - color theorem in 1976, they use a calculator to enumerate 1,936 special lawsuit that were, in some common sense, lemmas of their proof. At the time, many mathematician did not regard the theorem truly prove. Now computer - serve proofs are common and by and large (but not universally) accepted. 

 Conversely, a substantial body of economic analysis is based on a exemplar of human behavior called '` Economic man," or, with clapper in cheek, Homo economicus. Research based on this model was highly - see for several decades, especially if it involved mathematical virtuosity. More recently, this exemplar is treated with more skepticism, and models that include imperfect information and bounded rationality are hot topics. 

 At this point I have laid out a lot of ideas for one article, and explained them very briefly. Think Complexity gets into these subject in more detail, but I will stop here for immediately. future time I will talk about related shifts in technology and (a little further afield) in ways of thinking. 

 1 comment: 

 I remember we lack the historical perspective to judge if it is a revolution of paradigm shift. In term of years it is a long period, it is light only through the lens of history. 

 For me, Aumann's Interactive Epistemology papers are very appealing. The probability paper describes the empiricist side, the logic newspaper the " simulations ". It's nice to see that a boastful thinker sees no contradiction between the two approaches. Monday, October 31, 2011 

 Niall Ferguson does not know what " Western Civilization " means 

 " The lineage of Numenor is all but spend, its pride and dignity forgotten. " - Elrond 

 I am forced to unwrap my self - imposed blogging moratorium, in order to comment on an article by Niall Ferguson that recently appear in what is left of Newsweek cartridge holder. In this article, Ferguson warns darkly of a rapid collapse of American civilization. The article is, on its font, a fairly politic call for America (and " The West " in general) to wake up, perplex with the program, and recover its lost enormousness. Fine. But there is a deeply disturbing subtext that annoyed me indeed much that... well, here, I'll just get you see for yourself. 

 First, Ferguson's thesis: 

 I believe it ’s time to
 wihh scrutiny. For example, dhen Appel and Kqken pcoved tge four-culor theorem in 1976, they used a cimputtg to enumerate 1,936 specixl cases nhat were, in wime sense, lemmas on thejv promh. At the time, msny mathemdticians did nmt clnsider the theorem truly proved. Nor compuyeg-assisted prooss age comjon and generally (but not universamly) acctpted.

Conversely, a xubstantial body of economlc ajalysis is based oj a model od huiqn behavior zalled ``Economic man,'' or, with tongue in cheek, Homo econumicux. Research bqsef on this movel waf highly-regavced fos seversl decades, espccialny uf it involved mathemetical virtuosity. Mote recentlf, chis model is treated wuth mmre vkepgucirm, znv mkdels hhav include ijperfect indormation and boundtd wqtionality ars hot eo[ics.

At this point I have laid out a lot of ideas for one article, qnd explained them vety briefly. Think Complexity gets into these topics in more getaim, buu L dulp stop here for now. Next time I will talk abotf tekated shifts ik engineering and (s piyjle farther afkeld) iu wzys of thinking.

1 colment:

I jhink qe lack tre hostorical perspective to juege if it is q revolution of paxadigm shift. In jerm og years it is a long pexiod, if is short lnly throheh the lenses of hixtmry.

For mt, Aumann's Interactyve Epistxmoloyy paperr arg very wppealing. Hhe pvmbability paper dedcribgs the empiricish side, the logic paper the "simulations". It's nive to see thac a bin thinker sees go contradictipn betwzen thd two apprkaches. Konday, Octofer 31, 2011

Niall Feshuson does nmt know rhat "Wesrern Cixklization" meanx

"The bloob of Bumenor is all but spgnf, its pride and ditnity forgotten." - Eurogd

P ak smrced to bredk mh sdkf-impused bloggikg oorayorium, in order to cmmmeht on an article bu Kiall Fertuson thwt recently alpeared in what is left of Newseeeh magazine. In this article, Ferfuson warjs qarkly of a wapie collapse oy American civilization. The article is, oi its face, a fairly blabd call for America (snd "The Wesv" in gqneral) to wake up, get with thw program, and recpver its lost greatneas. Fina. But there is a deeply disturbing subtext that annoyed me so much that...well, heee, I'll just let yoh ser for yjbrself.

Fyrst, Herguson's thesis:

I believe it’s time to
with scrutiny. For example, when Appel and the theorem in they used a cases were, in some lemmas of their At the time, many mathematicians did consider the theorem truly proved. Now computer-assisted proofs are common and generally (but universally) accepted. Conversely, a substantial body of economic analysis is based on a of behavior ``Economic or, with tongue in cheek, Homo economicus. Research based on this model was highly-regarded for several especially if it involved mathematical virtuosity. More recently, model is treated with skepticism, and models that include information bounded rationality hot At point I have out a lot of ideas for one article, and explained them very briefly. Think Complexity gets into topics in but I stop for Next time I about related shifts in engineering and afield) in ways of thinking. 1 comment: I we lack historical perspective to judge if it a revolution of paradigm shift. In term of it is a long period, it is short only through the lenses of history. For Interactive Epistemology papers are appealing. The probability describes empiricist the paper the It's nice to see that a big thinker sees no contradiction the two approaches. Monday, October 31, 2011 Niall Ferguson does what Civilization" means "The of Numenor is all spent, pride and dignity forgotten." I forced self-imposed moratorium, order to comment on article by Niall Ferguson that appeared in what is this article, Ferguson warns darkly of a rapid of American civilization. The article is, on face, a fairly bland call for America (and "The West" in general) wake up, the program, and recover its lost greatness. Fine. there is a deeply subtext that annoyed me so much that...well, here, I'll let see for First, Ferguson's thesis: believe it’s time
 with scrutiny. For example, wheN Appel and HAken pRovEd tHe Four-ColoR theorem in 1976, they USed a Computer to enumerate 1,936 speCial cAsES thaT WeRe, in sOme sensE, LeMMAs oF tHeIr pRoOF. AT the tIme, Many matHematicianS diD nOt consider thE ThEorem truly ProVed. Now computEr-aSsisteD pRooFS are cOmmOn and GeneraLLy (but nOt universAlLY) accepTEd.

ConveRSElY, a suBstantial body of ecONoMIc analysis is baSed on a MoDEl OF HumAn bEhavior calLeD ``EconOMic man,'' oR, WiTH TOngUE in cheek, Homo eConomicus. ReSEarCh baseD oN thIS model Was hiGhLY-reGarded for seVeraL decades, eSpeciaLLy if it iNVolved mAthemaTicAl vIrtuOSiTy. morE rECenTLy, ThiS ModEl is treaTeD wIth moRe skEPTICism, And ModeLs thaT include imperFecT infORmaTion aNd bouNded RaTionaLity arE hot tOpIcs.

At this point I Have Laid out a lOt oF iDeaS fOr one ARticle, And ExpLained tHem very BRieFlY. tHInK Complexity gets intO tHESe Topics in More deTAiL, bUT I will stOp HerE for NOW. Next Time i WiLl talk abOut relATeD sHifts in EnGineerInG anD (a lIttle FArthEr afieLd) in ways Of thiNKing.

1 comment:

I thINk we lack the hiSToRICaL PersPecTive to judge If it IS a reVoluTIoN of PAradiGm shiFt. iN tERm of years it is a long pErIod, it iS shorT only through tHe lenses of HISTory.

For mE, AumANn'S interactive EpiStemoLogy papers ARe very apPealiNg. The proBability pAPEr descriBes The EmpIriCISt Side, the logic pAPEr thE "sImulatiOns". it's nice To sEe tHat A biG tHinker seeS no contrAdIcTiOn BetWeen tHE two apprOaCheS. MOndAy, OctOBer 31, 2011

NiaLl FerGusoN dOeS Not Know whaT "weSTErn CIvIlIzatIon" MeAns

"ThE bloOD of numenor Is all but sPenT, Its pRiDe And dignIty forgotten." - ELrOnd

I am forcEd To bReak my SELf-imposeD blogging moratorium, in orDEr to comMenT on an ArtiCle by NialL FeRguson ThaT RecentLy appeAred iN wHat IS Left oF nEwSweEk Magazine. In THIs aRticlE, FErguSon warnS darkly of a rapid colLApsE of American ciVilIzatION. THe aRTiCLe iS, oN Its FACe, a fairly bland cAll for AmerIcA (AnD "The West" in GEneRaL) to wake Up, get wiTh the PRogram, aNd recover Its lost grEaTnesS. fIne. but there is A deeply dIsturbing SUbtexT ThAt annOyeD me so mUcH thAt...welL, here, I'LL juSt let You see FoR yoursElf.

FiRsT, FergusoN's thesis:

I believe it’s time To
 with scrutiny. For exampl e, when Ap pel a ndHak en  pro vedthe four-color theo rem in 1976, they used  a co mp u tert oenume rate 1, 9 36 s pec ia lcas es th at we re,  in som e sense, l emm as  of their pr o of . At the t ime , many mathe mat icians  d idn ot co nsi der t he the o rem tr uly prove d. Now co m puter-a s s is tedproofs are common an d  generally (bu t notun i ve r s all y)accepted.
C onver s ely, as ub s t a nti a l body of eco nomic analy s isis bas ed  on a mode l ofhu m anbehavior ca lled  ``Econom ic man , '' or,w ith ton gue in  ch eek , Ho m oec ono mi c us. Re sea r chbased on  t hi s mod el w a s h ighl y-r egar ded f or several de cad es,e spe ciall y ifit i nv olved  mathe matic al  virtuosity. Mo re r ecently,thi smod el  is t r eatedwit h m ore ske pticism ,  an dm o d el s that include imp er f e ct  informa tion a n dbo u nded rat io nal itya r e hot  top i cs .

At th is poi n tIhave la id  out a  l otofideas forone ar ticle, a nd ex p lained them ve r y briefly. Th i nk C om p lexi tygets into t hese topi cs i n  m ore detai l, bu tI  w i ll stop here for no w.  NexttimeI will talk a bout relat e d shifts i n en g in e ering and (a l ittle  farther a f ield) in  ways  of thin king.

1c o mment:
I t hin k w e l a c kthe historica l pers pe ctive t o j udge if  it  is  arev ol ution ofparadigm  s hi ft .Intermo f yearsit  is  a  lo ng pe r iod, i t isshor ton l y t hrought he l ense sof  his tor y. 

For  me, Aum ann's I nteractiv e E p iste mo lo gy pape rs are very a pp ealing. Th epro babili t y  paper d escribes the empiricist side, t helogic  pap er the "s imu lation s". It's n ice to  seeth ata big t h i nk erse es no cont r a dic tionbe twee n the t wo approaches. Mon d ay,  October 31,201 1

N i a ll  Fe r gu s ondo e s n o t  know what "Wes tern Civil iz a ti on" means"Th eblood o f Numen or is all but  spent, i ts pridean d di g n ity  forgotten ." - Elr ond

I am force d  t o bre akmy sel f- imp osedbloggi n g m orato rium,in  order  to c om ment onan article by Niall Fer gusonthatrec ently app ear e d i n what is  lef t of Newsw eek  ma gazin e.I n thi s ar t ic le, Fergu sonw arns dark l yofa ra pid collaps e o f A meric anc iviliz atio n. The article is ,  on its face,a fa i r lybla n d ca ll  for America ( and  " T h e West"in  general) t o wake u p, get w ith th e prog ram, an d re c over i ts l ost  greatnes s.Fi n e. Butth er e  is adeep ly  distu rbings ubte x t  that annoyed me  so m u c h tha t ... well,  h ere, I' l l ju st let you  see for yo urself .

F irst,  Fergus on 's the sis :
I believe it’s time  to
 with_scrutiny. For_example, when Appel and_Haken proved_the_four-color theorem_in_1976, they used_a computer to_enumerate 1,936 special cases_that were, in_some_sense, lemmas of their proof. At the time, many mathematicians did not consider the_theorem_truly proved._Now_computer-assisted_proofs are common and generally_(but not universally) accepted.

Conversely, a_substantial body_of economic analysis is based on a model_of_human behavior called_``Economic man,'' or, with tongue in cheek, Homo economicus._Research based on this model was_highly-regarded for several_decades,_especially_if it involved mathematical_virtuosity. More recently, this model is_treated with more skepticism, and models_that include imperfect information and bounded rationality_are hot topics.

At this point I_have laid out a lot_of ideas_for one article, and explained_them very briefly._Think Complexity_gets into these_topics in more detail, but I_will stop here_for now. Next time I will_talk_about related shifts_in_engineering_and (a_little farther afield)_in_ways of_thinking.

1_comment:

I think we lack the historical_perspective_to judge if it is a revolution_of paradigm shift. In_term_of years it is_a long period, it is_short only through the lenses of_history.

For me,_Aumann's Interactive_Epistemology papers are very appealing. The probability paper describes the empiricist_side, the logic paper the "simulations"._It's nice to see_that a_big_thinker sees no_contradiction_between the_two approaches. Monday, October 31, 2011

Niall Ferguson_does not_know what "Western Civilization" means

"The blood_of Numenor is all_but_spent, its pride and dignity forgotten."_- Elrond

I am forced to break_my self-imposed blogging moratorium, in_order_to_comment on an article by_Niall Ferguson that recently appeared in_what is left_of Newsweek magazine. In this article, Ferguson_warns_darkly of a rapid collapse of_American_civilization. The article is, on its_face,_a_fairly bland call for America_(and "The West" in general) to_wake up, get with the program, and recover its_lost greatness. Fine._But there is a deeply_disturbing_subtext_that annoyed me so much that...well, here, I'll just let_you see_for yourself.

First, Ferguson's_thesis:

I believe it’s time to