


This is certainly not the case.  There is no significant *ability* toi
perform in the clutch, but clutch performance certainly happens every
time there is a game-winning hit.  The "clutch pitching" quoted above is
something which happened, not a claim that any particular player should
be expected to be a clutch pitcher.



Simple statistics tell me that there is a 2% chance an average clutch
hitter would have this large a split (the average decrease is 7 points,
standard deviation about 30).  There will be such hitters in any league,
just as there will be hitters who hit poorly on Tuesdays.

And there is only a very weak correlation (.01 in my best study) between
clutch hitting in the last four years and clutch hitting this year,
probably because most of the clutch data is determinaed by luck rather
than any ability.  *Based only on this data*, I don't see any reason to
pinch-hit for Sabo, or any other player who had been a poor clutch
hitter in the past.

But there are many other factors involved in a decision to pinch-hit.
Does the pinch-hitter give you a platoon advantage?  (Any portion of
Sabo's clutch split that results from his platoon split is certainly a
real ability, even if it has nothing to do with clutch hitting.)  Do you
have a singles hitter at the plate when you need a home run?  Do you
have a curveball pitcher facing a batter who has trouble with curves?
