
It would help if his OBP were higher than his batting average. Yes, the
April 12 USA Today lists Le Grand Chapeau as having a .422 batting average
and a .413 OBP. That's on 19-for-45 hitting with 0 (zip, nil, nada) walks.
The reason a lot of us are down on Galarraga is that he's has a long history
of showing that this is nowhere near his real level of ability (except for
drawing walks). If he hit .400 for, say, even 250 AB's I'd be convinced that
there was a real change in his ability. If he did it with an OBP<AVG, I'd
not only be amazed but I'd make a bet that that would be a unique feat in
the history of the game. But what do 45 AB's prove? Look at some of the
other fluke players at this point in the season:
  Player    AVG AB
  Blauser  .367 49
  Grace    .391 48
  Milligan .400 35
  Conine   .375 40
  Lansing  .400 50
  Slaught  .406 32
Are any of these guys really that good? Well, in a word, no. How significant
is Galarraga's average? At the 45 AB level, a hit is worth about .020. If
he'd had one of those hits called an error and one taken away by a good
defensive play, he'd be in the .380 range. If he goes 0-for-4 in his next
game he's all the way down to .388. In one game. Come back in June. Let's
talk then.


It's history, Greg. Andres' history is that he doesn't walk much because he
swings at bad pitches, so his average isn't very good. 45 AB's doesn't mean
an awful lot compared to a history of a couple of thousand, especially when
there's ample evidence (0 BB in 1992) that his basic hitting approach hasn't
changed. Yeah, he might suddenly have turned into a .400 hitter who never
walks, but don't bet the rent money on it.

 Mike Jones | AIX High-End Development | mjones@donald.aix.kingston.ibm.com