
I really don't want to get into a DidSo-DidNot debate with you.  But
this is somewhat at the heart of our disagreement.  I did not say, 
nor did I imply, that I could predict the future.  You have inferred
that my comments meant this, and you have based your rebuttal of my
comments on the fact that statistical studies have demonstrated that
there is no reasonable basis for predicting future performance in
regard to clutch hitting.


Sabo		1539	452	.294		259	59	.228
Samuel		1564	383	.245		278	83	.299	

That is *your* opinion that Sabo is "clearly a better hitter" than
Samuel.  The above data is for a 4-year period ending last season.
Last season Samuel batted .272 while Sabo hit .244 (not park adjusted).
This season they are both hitting below .200, albeit Sabo with more
at bats.  I will agree that over his career Sabo has been a better
hitter than Samuel, but I will also remind you that Samuel has been
a better hitter in certain situations than Sabo.

I did not predict that Sabo would choke, nor that Samuel would get a
hit.  I expressed my opinion that had I been the Reds manager (or
even a Reds fan) that I would prefer to have Samuel hit in that
situation than Sabo.



Ah.  "properly".  Yes.  I see.


Please help me.  What, exactly, is "everything else" that pointed to Sabo?



I must say, I was not aware of the publication.  Can you email me the
information regarding its availability?

And I guess I must apologize to all of those who have done extensive 
study on, say, supply side economics.  I didn't mean to insult you.
But I never did believe you were on the right path.  I'm sorry for
my contrary opinion/position.  I also regret that I don't have the
ability to prove that you are wrong.  But you are.
 


It is what it says it is!



The "second" is *your* statement, not mine.

Well, actually, I haven't yet.  But I'm not finished looking.
That is, I haven't yet found someone who hit significantly below
his overall batting average in clutch situations for the years 
1989 - 91, and then reversed that relationship in 1992.



Nope.  Sorry.  But if you were interested in a reason why I expect
Chris Sabo's ability to hit in the clutch to correlate from one
year to the next, I think I could.  If you were interested in a
reason why I expect Joe Carter's ability to hit in the clutch to
correlate from one year to the next, I think I could.  But you're
not interested in that, because you think that those conclusions
could only be valid if they could be extrapolated over the entire
baseball population.  And they can't be.



The problem here is that I *do* believe you.  I accept your work.
I believe that trying to predict future clutch performance based
on prior clutch history is meaningless.  No better than a coin toss.
I actually *do* accept your work.

As it happens, I also have an *opinion* that in certain situations,
for certain players, a history of superior or inferior ability to
hit in the clutch might suggest a reason what such history could be
valid in projecting future player performance.  For that player.
And Chris Sabo is one such player.



Well, since I defer to your statistical wisdom, I think I must have
an open mind.  Now we have to pose the same question to you.




--	The Beastmaster


