Sam Guest
Instructor: Todd, J
Political Science 202
11/3/10 
Impacts the 2010 Midterm Congressional Elections has on the 
Presidential Election in 2012
TABIn the 2010 midterm congressional elections, the Republican party took control of the House while the Senate remains a Democrat majority. With the House being in control by the the Republicans, it is going to be difficult, if not impossible to pass legislation without some sort of compromise. With the economy at a low and the unemployment rate still high, the people of The United States are looking for government help to strengthen the economy. President Obama has tried to strengthen the economy with the $800 million dollar stimulus bill. Matt Bai, a New York Times reporter, states in his article about the President, Debt-Busting Issue May Force Obama Off Fence, “And in virtually every case, he has satisfied pretty much no one.” With the 2012 presidential election in two years, both parties will need to gain the approval of the American people to succeed in the election.
TABThe outcome of the 2010 midterm congressional election shows that the 2012 presidential election will be based upon which party can demonstrate that they are going to help the economy grow and act upon the self-interests of the people.
TABMany are attempting to draw upon historical context to predict the outcome of the next presidential election. Some people believe that Obama will be a one term President. Marc Pascal, a writer for The Moderate Voice in: economy, law, politics, and society, states in his opinion piece, Obama will be a one-term President, “2010 is not a parallel to 1994, 1894, or to any other noteworthy year identified by various pundits across the political spectrum. What worked sufficiently well in the 1980’s and the 1990’s for Presidents Reagan and Clinton will not be appropriate for the myriad of challenges facing our nation in 2010 and beyond.” Pascal relates Obama to be more like Presidents Hoover and Carter who were “one-term” Presidents. Pascal compares President Obama with Hoover by stating, “The start of the Great Recession began before the presidential elections.” Pascal looks back with President Hoover and relates his presidency with Obama's, “Contrarily President Hoover was elected before the 1929 collapse and his efforts, over the next 3 years were wholly unsuccessful in extricating the U.S. from a deep and structural Depression. This huge failure naturally resulted in the 1932 election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Democrats running things for the next 16 years.”  
TABIn Pascal's analysis, he concluded that looking back to President Hoover's presidency as well with President Carter's presidency, Obama would suffer the same fate as they did by only serving one term as president. However, not everyone agrees with Pascal's conclusion. Historical analysis shows that this can swing in Obama's favor.
TABUsing the opposite argument, you could say that President Clinton took a huge blow in the 1994 midterm elections of his presidency with a loss of 52 House seats along with eight Senate seats, thus putting Clinton's Presidential agenda in jeopardy. With President Clinton's popularity down in the 1994 midterm elections, President Clinton was able to meet halfway with the Republican legislature allowing him to win the 1996 presidential election. Also in 1938, the biggest loss in midterm election history, President Franklin D. Roosevelt lost 71 House seats and six Senate seats. With Roosevelt suffering tremendous losses in his 1938 midterm election, he was still able to run and continue in office for his third and fourth terms. Another President  who won re-election after a huge blow in the midterm election is Harry Truman. President Truman lost 45 House seats and 12 Senate seats during the 1946 midterm election but still won re-election in 1948. With President Obama loosing a historical 63 House seats and six Senate seats in the 2010 midterm elections, history shows it does not mean President Obama will loose re-election in 2012 due to losses in the last midterms.
TABThe economy in the United States is currently at a standstill. With President Obama signing the stimulus bill, the free-falling economy was saved from further peril. People in The United States are not satisfied with the way that Obama is handling the economy. Updated on December 1, 2010 Obama has approval ratings of 25 percent strong support, but he still faces a high 42 percent disapproval (Rasmussum Reports). With Obama having such a high percentage of those against his policies, he will need to attempt to meet with the Republicans halfway on upcoming legislation. At this moment in time Obama is having little luck compromising with the Republicans. Tamara Lytle quotes President Obama in an AARP bulletin, “We're going to need to work together — Democrats and Republicans and independents — to get it all done. But, you know what,