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"Rishi Sunak is about to see how resilient his brand can be, as he finally confronts the consequences of his own early generosity.  The chancellor has two big decisions to make over the coming months: Firstly when to withdraw emergency support which kept the government afloat through the pandemic; and secondly when to start paying for it, by raising taxes or cutting spending. Both will test his carefully crafted image. The current debate around Universal Credit, and whether to extend the &#163;20-a-week increase into April and beyond, is a useful proxy for the first, and whether there is the political appetite - and the votes in the Commons - to cut some of the billions of emergency support through lockdowns and other restrictions. But with 70 northern Tory MPs opposing privately, half a dozen Tory MPs publicly and some cabinet ministers all making clear their opposition in the past 72 hours, as well as every opposition MP, the answer looks like a no. Intriguingly, cutting support packages has not been left as an issue for the chancellor alone. Various Whitehall sources have already made clear the prime minister had to parachute in to help adjudicate between cabinet ministers with differing views on Universal Credit and will ultimately adjudicate himself. But does this mean the Commons will also object to ending other support schemes - most notably the flagship furlough scheme at the end of April, which has already been extended four times. Although the government is promising some restrictions lifted in the spring, it is too early to say if life will be back to normal by then. Even an optimist would expect some restrictions to be in place still in May, and the trajectory could be worse with new variants emerging or vaccine rollout stuttering. Nor is there a \"clean\" moment in late spring and summer, since whenever the furlough scheme ends, unemployment will spike and the clamour for more spending will crescendo once more. Then there is the question of when to start raising taxes and cut spending. Jesse Norman, a Treasury minister, has acknowledged that the March budget was not that moment. But if not now, when? The economic damage from the pandemic is unlikely to lift this year and perhaps not even next. But in 2023 - the year many international experts suggest might be the right point to consolidate taxes and cut spending to pay for the pandemic - is on the eve of the next UK general election. You can neither hike taxes before an election, nor introduce them straight after if the Tories win again without alerting the public in the manifesto. Mr Sunak is highly aware that the economic cycle and the political cycle in the UK are not aligned. There are no easy answers to that. "
<https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-the-conundrum-facing-rishi-sunak-when-to-withdraw-support-and-when-to-start-paying-for-it-12192012>