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"A new poll shows that one Republican candidate may have the edge in the 1st Congressional District race.Click to watch News 9's coverage.The WMUR Granite State Poll shows that Frank Guinta may be in the best position to defeat U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., in the general election in November. The poll shows Guinta leading Shea-Porter 45 to 41 percent in a hypothetical matchup.Republican Dan Innis is also in the mix, trailing Shea-Porter 44 to 37 percent. Neither matchup is particularly good for the incumbent, according to pollster Andy Smith of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the survey.\"If you are an incumbent and you are under 50 percent, you are in trouble,\" Smith said. \"Because typically what happens is the undecideds break for the challenger.\"But first, there will be a Republican primary between Guinta and Innis to decide the challenger, and on Tuesday, Guinta put forth the results of an internal poll commissioned by his campaign, which said shows Guinta leading Innis in the primary battle 68 to 12 percent.\"You never take anything for granted, which is why we are going to work hard over the final three weeks of the primary effort to earn people's support, but we want to be as well positioned as we possibly can,\" Guinta said.\"I think it's probably a ridiculous poll, and the numbers don't mean much of anything,\" Innis said in response to the Guinta campaign's internal numbers.Innis said his message is resonating in a different way. He said he's offering voters a clear choice between who he calls a career politician and a new voice for the people of the 1st Congressional District.\"When Frank went to Washington, Washington changed him,\" Innis said. \"He didn't change Washington. When he left, he got more engaged in the lobbying side of things, and I think that's exactly the problem with American politics today.\"The WMUR Granite State Poll of 827 randomly selected adults was conducted from Aug. 7 through Aug. 17 by landline and cellphone and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.The subset of 397 residents of the 1st Congressional District has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points."^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
<http://www.wmur.com/article/poll-gives-guinta-edge-in-1st-cd/5192611>