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" Victor Bout, alleged to be the world&amp;#039;s most notorious black-market arms dealer, was doing what he does best when he got caught: selling illicit arms to whoever wanted them. He saw a good client in the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC) and was offering the group 100 shoulder-fired Igla antiaircraft missiles, designed in Russia. There were two problems with this. One, the FARC is designated as a terrorist group by the United States. The second problem was that the FARC members he was dealing with turned out to be undercover U.S. federal agents. Arrested this March in Bangkok, Thailand, Bout now faces extradition to the U.S. in connection with this reputed deal. There is a large market for Man Portable Air Defense (MANPAD) missiles, especially in global hotspots where they would be used by rogue states, insurgents and proxy armies. MANPADS are considered small arms because a single dismounted soldier can operate them. But unlike other small arms, like rifles and machine guns, antiaircraft missiles pose a threat that is disproportionate to their size. A single shot can down a commercial airliner or kill dozens of soldiers. It is not the Victor Bouts of the world, however, operating independently of nation states, that will spread the bulk of these weapons. The real missile threat, experts say, comes from irresponsible regimes that still make the weapons, sell them to dubious clients and do not track what happens to them after they are sold. In the 1980s Russia and the U.S. exported plenty of MANPADs. The U.S. supplied Stingers to Afghan rebels fighting the Soviet Union (in the biggest known transfer of MANPAD technology) and Russia was eager to spread its antiaircraft systems with client states. Fortunately, the threats associated with these particular weapons will fade as the systems get older, pieces break down and specialized batteries run out. Both nations now have a vested interest in keeping shoulder-fired missiles off of the open market. The U.S. only allows the sale of MANPADs to nations that allow U.S. inspectors to inventory the missiles, in person, every year. Russia began to emulate these controls, likely motivated by the loss of its own transport helicopters to shoulder-fired missiles in Chechnya in 2002. Russia&amp;#039;s contracts now stipulate that Russian officials can inventory the things they sell, experts say.  &amp;quot;For the past six years there has been a global campaign to end the illicit traffic,&amp;quot; says Matt Schroeder, an analyst with the Federation of American Scientists who co-authored a book on small arms proliferation. &amp;quot;We won&amp;#039;t know the net effect of this campaign for many years.&amp;quot; The campaign may fail because, though many countries work to prevent illicit traffic, some nations still sell MANPADs to clients with bad international reputations. Highest on the list of offenders are Iran and Eritrea, who were accused by the United Nations of providing hundreds of MANPADS to the Islamic Courts Union in Somalia. In 2007, a Belarusian cargo plane that had just finished delivering supplies to Ugandan peacekeepers was struck by an antiaircraft missile fired by the Islamic Courts Union shortly after taking off from Mogadishu airport. All 11 people on board were killed. The U.S. also accuses Iran of supplying the terrorist group Hezbollah with infrared-guided, Russian-made SA-18 antiaircraft missiles from its stockpile. But Iran is not solely reliant on buying anti-aircraft missiles--the country can manufacture Misagh shoulder-fired missiles, knockoffs of a Chinese design. Analysts fear that these homemade missiles will also be transferred to Hezbollah, but no proof of this transfer has been found. The Chinese government may also be on the list of MANPAD proliferators. Schroeder says that recent analysis of video from Sudan&amp;#039;s national 2007 military parade shows a Sudanese solider hefting a Chinese-made FN-6 shoulder-fired missile. The grainy image, found on YouTube (&amp;quot;that magical source for arms trafficking experts,&amp;quot; Schroeder says), is not a smoking gun, but China&amp;#039;s sale of weapons to Sudan and other dubious regimes casts doubt on the government&amp;#039;s restraint when selecting customers. Also, he notes that China typically shies away from imposing anything that infringes on its customers&amp;#039; sovereignty, like periodic checks of serial numbers on the weapons in its arsenals.  The more missiles that are sold without conditions, the greater the chance that they will be diverted to nonstate players, like militias or terrorists. These missiles have shelf lives of 15 to 20 years, so the mistakes of today will linger. &amp;quot;It&amp;#039;s a shame that a few rogue suppliers could ruin all the good work that&amp;#039;s being done,&amp;quot; Shroeder says. &amp;quot;It doesn&amp;#039;t take many [MANPADS] to pose a real, global terrorist threat.&amp;quot; "^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
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