<http://schema.org/articleBody>
"We're just a few hours away from the launch of Google Wave.  Later tonight, a flood of invites for Google Wave will permeate the web, and around 100,000 early adopters will become part of Google's real-time communication tool.  Heck, Wave is so hot right now that people are trying to buy themselves invites on eBay already.\nStill, something being hot doesn't mean it's going to be successful.  For every Google and Facebook, there's a Cuil and Pets.com story to match.  We've already pondered whether the world is ready for Google Wave, but we want to take that discussion a step further.  \nHere's the big unknown hanging over Wave: Will it succeed?  Will it get widespread adoption, or will it flop like the Apple Newton? We have some thoughts on the matter, but we want to hear your opinion as well.\nThe Questions Surrounding Google Wave\nThere's no doubt that Google's newest product is an impressive piece of software.  It supports real-time communication, wiki-style editing, drag-and-drop file uploads, and the embedding of apps within any conversation.  However, even the best features or the most innovative approach doesn't guarantee success.  In fact, sometimes it can impede adoption.  Twitter, for example, succeeded partly due to its simplicity.\nHere are some of our concerns, ones that could impede Wave's adoption:\n\n- Google Wave does not run well in Internet Explorer.  This is why Google launched Chrome Frame \u2014 they just couldn't get Wave's advanced features to work well in the browser.  But with 3/4 of the world using IE, this may not bode well for adoption.\n- It's not simple. The interface is not 100% intuitive.  Heck, check out our Google Wave Guide to see how many new terms and features Google is introducing in this product.  Products that are too complicated tend to turn off anyone who is not an early adopter.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n- Is there a perceived need? Another big question mark is whether people who are happy with their email accounts will adopt Wave.  After all, there are millions that don't have Facebook accounts, cell phones, or even computers.  Will enough people see Google Wave as a \"must-have\" thing?\n- It has lofty ambitions.  Google will not be happy if Wave is used by a million people, or even ten million.  No, Google's looking to challenge email itself with Wave.  If Google Wave has a small but dedicated userbase, but never goes beyond that, it would probably be considered a failure given its premise and goals.\n\nThere are Many Reason to Think Wave Will Succeed\nStill, there is a reason that Google Wave is getting so much attention.  We actually think it's more likely that Google Wave achieves a measure of success.  Here's why:\n\n- It's Google. The company has a very good track record, even in established markets.  Just look at Gmail.\n- The anticipation is unmatched. Very few product launches have received so much media attention, social media chatter, and buzz as Google Wave's impending launch has created.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n- Its features really are revolutionary. We tested Google Wave early on, and came off impressed.  It has some killer features such as wiki-style editing and the ability to embed waves onto websites and blogs.  \n- It's open-source. The code is open for others to look at and improve.  It also means that companies can create their own Wave servers, similar to a Microsoft Exchange email server.  This may Google's biggest weapon in spurring adoption.\n\nWhat Do You Think?\nWhile we continue to ponder the potential viability of Wave, we want to know what you think.  That's why we've added a poll below where you can voice your opinion.  Don't forget to provide your reasoning and your arguments in the comments too!\n\n\n\nWill Google Wave Succeed?(online surveys)\n\n\n"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string>
<http://mashable.com/2009/09/30/google-wave-adoption/>