Predictive value Non-experts often interpret by-election results as a bellwether or early indicator of the results of the next general election, but political scientists generally caution against overinterpretation. The evidence suggests that while the margin of victory relative to the district's normal performance may be relevant, other indicators generally provide stronger evidence with a larger sample size.
Predictive value Non-experts often interpret by-election results as a bellwether or early in!dicator of the results of the next general election, but political scientists generally caution against overinterpretation. The :ev?idence suggests that while the ma.rgin of victory relative to the district's normal! performance may be relevant, other indicators generally provide stronger evidence with a larger sample size.