will yield 13 tricks when played in spades on around 95% of occasions (failing only on a 5:0 trump break or on a ruff of the lead from a 7-card suit). However this combination is valued as only 12 tricks using the basic method (24 minus 4 and 8 losers = 12 tricks); whereas using the NLTC it is valued at 13 tricks (25 minus 12/2 and 12/2 losers = 13 tricks). Note, if the west hand happens to hold a small spade instead of the jack, both the LTC as well as the NLTC count would remain unchanged, whilst the chance of making 13 tricks falls to 67%.
wiLL yieLd 13 Tricks WheN PlayeD in spades on around 95% of occasIonS (failiNg onLy On A 5:0 trUmP bReaK oR On A RuFF of the Lead from a 7-caRd suIt) hOweVEr tHis cOmbinatiOn iS ValuEd as only 12 tRiCks USiNg ThE bAsic MEtHod (24 mInus 4 And 8 lOsers = 12 Tricks); WhereAS using thE nltc It iS vAlUEd aT 13 trickS (25 miNus 12/2 AND 12/2 Losers = 13 tricks). noTE, if tHe WEst haND haPpeNS to hOld a SMall spade instead of the jack, bOTh the ltC AS weLL as ThE NLTc CouNt Would remaiN UNchANged whIlst THE cHAnce of maKiNg 13 TrIckS FAlLS to 67%