In 1989, Boris Chirikov and Vitold Vecheslavov performed an analysis of 46 apparitions of Halley's Comet taken from historical records and computer simulations, which showed that its dynamics were chaotic and unpredictable on long timescales. Halley's projected dynamical lifetime is estimated to be about 10 million years. The dynamics of its orbit can be approximately described by a two-dimensional symplectic map, known as the Kepler map, a solution to the restricted three-body problem for highly eccentric orbits. Based on records from the 1910 apparition, David Hughes calculated in 1985 that Halley's nucleus has been reduced in mass by 80 to 90% over the last 2,000 to 3,000 revolutions, and that it will most likely disappear completely after another 2,300 perihelion passages. More recent work suggests that Halley will evaporate, or split in two, within the next few tens of thousands of years, or will be ejected from the Solar System within a few hundred thousand years.
In 1989, Boris Chirikov and Vitold Vecheslavov performed an analysis of 46 apparitions of Halley's Comet taken from historical records and computer simulations, which showed that its dynamics were chaotic and unpredictable on long timescales. Halley's projected dynamical lifetime is estimated to be about 10 million years. The dynamics of its orbit can be approximately described by a two-dimensional symplectic map, known as the Kepler map, a solution to the restricted three-body problem for highly eccentric orbits. Based on records from the 1910 apparition, David Hughes calculated in 1985 that Halley's nucleus has been reduced in mass by 80 to 90% over the last 2,000 to 3,000 revolutions, and that it will most likely disappear completely after another 2,300 perihelion passages. More recent work suggests that Halley will evaporate or split in two, within the next few tens of thousands of years, or will be ejected from the Solar System within a few hundred thousand years.