In a 1974 article by The New York Times, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this: In terms of duration – Declines in real gross national income (GNI) for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period. In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real gross national income ; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%. In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending. In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.
In a 1974 article by The New York Times, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this: In terms of duration – Declines in real gross national income (GNI) for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period. In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real gross national income ; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%. In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending. In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.