Before we observed the cookie, the probability we assigned for Fred having chosen bowl #1 was the prior probability, , which was 0.5. After observing the cookie, we must revise the probability to , which is 0.6.
Before we observed the cookie, the probability we assigned for Fred having chosen. bowl #1 was the prior probability, , which was 0.5. After observing the cookie, we must revise the probability to , which is 06.