It is possible for there to be more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths, and in fact for there to be confirmed COVID-19 deaths without any excess deaths.
Because COVID-19 “competes” with other causes of death like the flu, this means that COVID-19 deaths are not by default excess deaths. It is possible for there to be more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths, and in fact for there to be confirmed COVID-19 deaths without any excess deaths.