Previously we used a different expected deaths baseline: the average number of deaths over the years 2015–2019.
Previously we used a different expected deaths baseline: the average number of deaths over the years 2015–2019. 8 We made this change because using the five-year average has an important limitation — it does not account for year-to-year trends in mortality and thus can misestimate excess mortality. 9 The WMD projection, on the other hand, does not suffer from this limitation because it accounts for these year-to-year trends. Our charts using the five-year average are still accessible in links in the sections below.