Design: the available national epidemic reports published by the Protezione Civile (Italian civil defence) from 24.02.2020 to 16.022022 were used to collect data on COVID-19 epidemic in Italy.
Design: the available national epidemic reports published by the Protezione Civile (Italian civil defence) from 24.02.2020 to 16.022022 were used to collect data on COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. Then, the Reed-Frost model was applied to develop a methodology based on the calculation of the effective contact probability, i.e., the probability of contact