We use an estimate produced by Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak as part of their World Mortality Dataset (WMD).
We use an estimate produced by Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak as part of their World Mortality Dataset (WMD). 4 To produce this estimate, they first fit a regression model for each region using historical deaths data from 2015–2019. 5 They then use the model to project the number of deaths we might normally have expected in 2020–2024. 6 Their model can capture both seasonal variation and year-to-year trends in mortality.