4 To produce this estimate, they first fit a regression model for each region using historical deaths data from 2015–2019.
We use an estimate produced by Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak as part of their World Mortality Dataset (WMD). 4 To produce this estimate, they first fit a regression model for each region using historical deaths data from 2015–2019. 5 They then use the model to project the number of deaths we might normally have expected in 2020–2024. 6 Their model can capture both seasonal variation and year-to-year trends in mortality.