11. A system for analyzing a set of exhaustive and exclusive hypotheses in estimative intelligence, said system comprising: at least one processor for executing instructions, a memory coupled to the processor, a data storage system for reading media having sequences of instructions stored thereon coupled to the data storage system, input/output for delivering data to and from the memory or to and from the data storage system and a user interface allowing for interaction with said instruction sequences by users, which sequences also causes said at least one processor to execute the steps of: assessing and assigning base rates for each hypothesis; determining a set of items of evidence that are relevant to, have a causal influence on or would disconfirm more than one hypothesis; assessing and assigning base rates for each item of evidence; deciding, for each item of evidence, whether the item should be treated as being a causal influence or diagnostic indicator with respect to the set of the hypotheses; if the item of evidence is to be treated as a causal influence, making a judgment as to the likelihood of each hypothesis, both if the evidence were true, and also if the evidence were false; if the item of evidence is to be treated as a diagnostic indicator, making a judgment as to the evidence being true if the hypothesis were true; assessing the belief for each item of evidence being true; deciding a set of interim beliefs in each hypothesis for each individual item of evidence by: employing a conditional inference operator for evidence that is to be treated as a causal influence; and employing a reverse conditional inference operator for evidence that is to be treated as a diagnostic indicator; deciding the overall belief in each hypothesis by employing a consensus operator on the respective set of interim beliefs; and outputting a set of beliefs representing the certainty and likelihood of each hypothesis.
16. The estimative intelligence analysis system of claim 11 wherein the belief for an item of evidence being true includes both the certainty and likelihood of the item of evidence being true.