12. A method for medical resource forecasting comprising: receiving records of a first data set comprising historical medical data related to resource usage, wherein the historical medical data related to resource usage comprises usage determination data and context determination data; from the records of the first data set, determining a Bayesian network model including Bayesian node elements, wherein the step of determining the Bayesian network model comprises: applying resource usage determination data to incorporate resource need as a hidden state of said Bayesian network, applying context determination data to incorporate context data as observable states of said Bayesian network; analyzing the Bayesian network model to determining a simplified model; generating a predictive model using said simplified model; and applying the predictive model to determine future resource needs.
14. The method of claim 12 , wherein the usage determination data comprises actual usage data and data which is indicative of resource application error.