2. The computer-readable media of claim 1 , wherein the predictive model is an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model which is estimated based on the simplified model.
1. One or more computer-readable devices, not being a signal per se, having computer-executable instructions embodied thereon that when executed provide a method for medical resource forecasting, the method comprising: retrieving records of a first data set comprising historical medical data related to resource usage, wherein the historical medical data related to resource usage comprises usage determination data and context determination data; processing the records to determine a Bayesian network model including Bayesian node elements, wherein processing comprises: applying resource usage determination data to incorporate resource need as a hidden state of said Bayesian network, and applying context determination data to incorporate context data as observable states of said Bayesian network; producing a simplified model, based on analyzing the Bayesian network model; generating a predictive model using said simplified model; and running the predictive model to generating a forecast of resource needs.