1. A method to calculate a probability of ambient tuning, comprising: identifying, with a processor, a household minute credited to a station in a household by a first media meter (MM) device, the first MM device collecting only audio data; determining, with the processor, whether a panelist audience meter device is crediting the station at the same time in the household; reducing overreporting of the household when the panelist audience meter device is crediting the same station by associating, with the processor, the household minute with an ambient tuning status; identifying, with the processor, a first automatic gain control (AGC) value and a first code status of the household minute; calculating, with the processor, model coefficients based on the ambient tuning status, the first AGC value and the first code status; and calculating, with the processor, a probability of ambient tuning based on the model coefficients.