1. A method comprising: receiving, by a processor, a report indicating a user-reported probability of a successful outcome; estimating, by the processor, a behavior and information model based on the report, the behavior and information model including a behavior model component having a bias parameter and a consistency parameter, the behavior and information model including an information model component having a first user-believed probability of a successful outcome and a second user-believed probability of a successful outcome, where estimating the behavior and information model based on the report comprises employing a maximum likelihood technique that determines the bias parameter, the consistency parameter, the first user-believed probability of winning, and the second user-believed probability of winning that maximize a likelihood; and, using, by the processor, the behavior and information model to yield a model-determined probability of a successful outcome that more accurately reflects a probability of a successful outcome than the user-reported probability of a successful outcome does.